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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 34







Post#826 at 09-24-2013 11:45 AM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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Perhaps the next 1T will be a Peace of Exhaustion.
Last edited by TimWalker; 09-24-2013 at 11:50 AM.







Post#827 at 09-24-2013 11:47 AM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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Considering Minnesota Somalis and terrorism...I won't be surprised if a bitter distrust of Muslims should become the norm.







Post#828 at 09-24-2013 06:21 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Beecher View Post
All very interesting, yet a part of me severely questions whether today's womanhood, with all its education and advanced degrees, would ever put up with returning to that proverbial "Suzy Homemaker" role. Somehow I don't see that happening, but with the sophisticated technology moms could do productive work at home during the hours their kids are in their classrooms. That is if public schooling, which is now under attack, manages to survive the 4T. If not there will be home schooling where both parents would need to be involved. Do you see the idea of more real-life "Mr. Moms" becoming viable?
Women who kept professional jobs during the 4T (largely Lost and early-wave GI) got to keep them if those jobs if they were essential to prosperity and scientific progress. Women did not get chased out of teaching and nursing at any time. There was no 1T trend to replace women in those fields with men. Maybe men on the whole lacked the temperament? I have known of many otherwise-intelligent people whom I would never want teaching because they would be more inclined to grab a strap than cut a deal. Women in engineering and science stayed on the job until they retired. But know well -- the Depression itself opened few jobs for women, and the WWII workplace required women to do jobs with quick payback in manufacturing war materiel and in service occupations (as at food counters). When the war ended, returning male soldiers got the first pick of education and jobs. Young male GI veterans latched onto the economic fast track, and young male Silent veterans with ability got much the same after the Korean War.

Home schooling has spectacular successes -- and horrid failures. Enough failures will cause people to think twice about gutting the public school system. Sure, I would do things differently than most who home-school for ideological or religious reasons. My lesson plans might involve trips to museums from history to old autos to art on occasion, not to forget zoos, arboretums, and aviaries -- but of course the primary focus is on the three Rs above all else. Of course I could have some interesting interdisciplinary connections. "Pay special attention to the Duesenberg. You will be asked to draw what it looks like once you get home". PE would include swimming in the summer. For me there would be no long summer break.

Of course most people who home-school would try to brainwash their kids and keep them from experiencing people who don't look like them or pray like them.

.....

It could be that in the aftermath of a truly nasty war that men are seen as disproportionately culpable. This time the equation

"testosterone + fanaticism = moral pathology"

could be a lesson. Know well: the Americans and British imposed the right of women to vote in defeated Italy and Japan and even allied France. (Women's right to vote had existed in Germany before Der Phooey took over). The rationale was that women were less likely to heed extremist ideology uttered in a 'manly' booze hall. Worth remembering: how many women participated in the 1923 Beer Hall Putsch?

In a disgraced America it could be that women get the first opportunities in education and the professions. Remember: all of the defendants at the Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals were male. Maybe the next 1T could have female chauvinism instead of male chauvinism.

The more that I see of men the less I like exaggerated masculinity. I find women on the whole more cautious, which may manifest itself in less tendency of women to lead reckless causes.

What other workplace changes do you see happening? Just yesterday in one of our local papers there was a column where people who work on salary are expected to constantly put in very long hours taking more time away from their families. Might we see a bill of rights for salaried workers where more would also be eligible for overtime pay, for example? Hopefully a relaxation of all this "political correctness" could be part of the package as well?
The solution would be to put everyone on an hourly basis with an overtime premium for time over whatever becomes the norm (36? 35? 32?) hours a week. The kids are being hurt by missing their parents.

You mentioned an 80-year cycle, but some on this board say it's more like 84. With that in mind, December 5 of this year will mark the 80th anniversary of the repeal of Prohibition. We obviously didn't return to that, but yet the liquor industry suffered significant setbacks, one of which is the massive attrition of neighborhood taverns. Do you see them rebounding and/or a relaxation of some of the stiffer parts of the alcoholic beverage codes to coincide? Or do you see them as relics of a bygone era. In Chicago at one time it was common to have two or three bars on one block. Now you find one about every five or six blocks. And they have become especially scarce in minority neighborhoods. Will there be a relaxation also of the severe crackdown on underage drinking, with folks realizing that if someone 18, 19, or 20 is able to vote, get married and sign legal contracts that they should be able to be served a drink?
I say 80 years to allow for an 84-year lifespan before senility or death with most people having practically no rational memories before age 5. I don't say that what impressions kids get before age 5 aren't important -- whether humanity generally deserve trust or does not, whether they are valued as human beings or are simply in the way of some adult indulgence, whether rational processes or superstition is the norm, whether curiosity is a virtue or whether "curiosity killed the cat" ... and such makes a huge difference between Martin Luther King and Charles Manson. But all in all making sense of video, speech, and especially reading does not begin until one is about 5. The differences in experiences in infants and toddlers imply largely familial and perhaps ethnic or class differences that have no connection to the generational cycle. After age 5 or so... news events are much the same.

Will clandestine liaisons between coworkers become more commonplace with less fear of retaliation? Even with all the harassment crackdown people still do develop an intense attraction for a colleague. Will employers more likely look the other way and the code become more benign to the point that only TRUE sexual harassment will be punished?
Sexual harassment will likely remain an issue if there is a difference in economic rank within a company. In general, rules against fraternization between superiors and subordinates have been rigidly enforced in most bureaucracies. Romances between fellow clerks or laborers? Those will be OK so long as they don't lead to abuse or interfere with productivity. Giant employers might offer romantic opportunities as a possibility on the job.

IOW, can a man give a female coworker a sincere compliment such as "I like your sweater" without being hauled in front of the HR tribunals?
Maybe that is not so innocent as it sounds in some circumstances. Maybe it isn't the sweater but instead what is beneath it -- and I don't mean the shoulders -- that bulges underneath it. If there's nothing remarkable about the sweater, then one might have a sexist connotation.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#829 at 09-24-2013 06:36 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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80 has been described as a fragility barrier.







Post#830 at 09-24-2013 10:08 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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25-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama blasts Russia and Iran over Syria

*** 25-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama blasts Russia and Iran over Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Greenpeace tangles with the wrong country -- Russia
  • President Obama blasts Russia and Iran over Syria
  • Iran's president Hassan Rouhani 'snubs' Obama at United Nations


****
**** Greenpeace tangles with the wrong country -- Russia
****



A boat full of Greenpeace activists being sprayed by a water cannon

Greenpeace has a history of bizarre, high publicity activist protests,
everything from disrupting Iceland's whaling fleet to scaling
skyscrapers, earning themselves the names "eco-terrorists." After
each event, they painted themselves as innocent victims, and they
always got away with it. But now they may have gone too far. Last
week, activists tried to scale a Gazprom offshore oil platform in the
Arctic Ocean, hoping that the big publicity stunt would embarrass the
Russians. But nothing embarrasses the Russians. Russian authorities
boarded the Greenpeace boat, arrested all the activists on board, and
towed the boat to Murmansk port, where the activists are being
questioned and charged with piracy. Ria Novosti

****
**** President Obama blasts Russia and Iran over Syria
****


During Tuesday's speech by President Barack Obama, he was
uncharacteristically critical of Russia's and Iran's policies with
respect to Syria, calling that policy a "fantasy":

<QUOTE>"Assadís traditional allies have propped him up,
citing principles of sovereignty to shield his regime. And on
August 21st, the regime used chemical weapons in an attack that
killed more than 1,000 people, including hundreds of children. ...

The evidence is overwhelming that the Assad regime used such
weapons on August 21st. U.N. inspectors gave a clear accounting
that advanced rockets fired large quantities of sarin gas at
civilians. These rockets were fired from a regime-controlled
neighborhood, and landed in opposition neighborhoods. Itís an
insult to human reason -- and to the legitimacy of this
institution -- to suggest that anyone other than the regime
carried out this attack. ...

Now there must be a strong Security Council resolution to verify
that the Assad regime is keeping its commitments, and there must
be consequences if they fail to do so. If we cannot agree even on
this, then it will show that the United Nations is incapable of
enforcing the most basic of international laws. On the other
hand, if we succeed, it will send a powerful message that the use
of chemical weapons has no place in the 21st century, and that
this body means what it says. ...

Nor do I believe that America or any nation should determine who
will lead Syria; that is for the Syrian people to decide.
Nevertheless, a leader who slaughtered his citizens and gassed
children to death cannot regain the legitimacy to lead a badly
fractured country. The notion that Syria can somehow return to a
pre-war status quo is a fantasy.

Itís time for Russia and Iran to realize that insisting on Assadís
rule will lead directly to the outcome that they fear: an
increasingly violent space for extremists to
operate."<END QUOTE>

President Obama's substantive criticisms echo what I wrote last week
in "18-Sep-13 World View -- Russia and Vladimir Putin pursue a disastrous Syria policy"
:
Supporting the genocidal monster who leads Syria not only harms the
United Nations, but leads to increasing violence in the region.

President Obama also echoed again, as he's done more than
once recently, the Truman Doctrine:

<QUOTE>"But I also believe the world is better for it. Some
may disagree, but I believe America is exceptional -- in part
because we have shown a willingness through the sacrifice of blood
and treasure to stand up not only for our own narrow
self-interests, but for the interests of all."<END QUOTE>

The Truman Doctrine,was put
forth by President Harry Truman in 1947, and making the U.S. the
Policeman of the World. Truman's reasoning was that WW II was so
expensive, and cost so many lives, and so intervening in the
Greece/Turkey crisis of the time would be only a tiny fraction, and
would be well worth it if it prevented a new world war. President
John F. Kennedy repeated this theme in his inaugural address.
White House

****
**** Iran's president Hassan Rouhani 'snubs' Obama at United Nations
****


According to news reports, Iran's president Hassan Rouhani
declined to meet with President Obama on Tuesday at the
United States, giving as a reason that it was "too complicated."
A number of reporters are saying that Rouhani "snubbed" Obama,
but in fact the "too complicated" description is quite
believable.

As I wrote last week in "21-Sep-13 World View -- Does Iran's 'Heroic Flexibility' signal a real policy change?"
, the reference by the Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei to "Heroic Flexibility" is a signal that
Khamenei is finally being forced to give in to the demands of the
young generation that grew up after the Great Islamic Revolution and
the Iran/Iraq war.

However, this "generation gap" is just as controversial in Iran today
as it was during America's Awakening era in the 1960s. In fact,
Khamenei's declaration of "Heroic Flexibility" has become
extremely controversial in the last few days, drawing a
great deal of criticism from younger members of the
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) who are determined
for Iran to develop nuclear weapons, despite external
pressures and sanctions. So a meeting between Rouhani
and Obama may well have been "too complicated" for Iran's
politics.

In his United Nations speech, Rouhani said that Iran has no intention
of developing nuclear weapons, a claim that few believe. He also went
off the deep end in terms of fatuous nonsense by proposing a United
Nations project called "The world against violence and extremism,"
which is laughable in view of Iran's continuing policies of violence
and extremism.

At any rate, Rouhani's speech sounded nice, but had no content
whatsoever. It remains to be seen whether Iran's new "Heroic
Flexibility" policy means anything. Al Monitor and Sky News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greenpeace, Russia, Gazprom,
Barack Obama, Russia, Iran, Syria,
Hassan Rouhani, Heroic Flexibility,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei

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Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 09-25-2013 at 07:17 PM.







Post#831 at 09-25-2013 10:36 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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26-Sep-13 World View -- Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation

*** 26-Sep-13 World View -- Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation
  • Russia-spawned Al-Muhajireen terrorists fight Russia's allies in Syria
  • Ex-Guantanamo prisoner dies fighting Assad in Syria


****
**** Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation
****



Venezuela's Amuay Refinery explosion, August 25, 2012

According to the latest figures, inflation in Venezuela reached the
hyperinflationary level of 45.4% in August. Since the bolivar
currency was introduce in January, 2008, total inflation has been
323%. The country is plagued by shortages of everything from milk and
cooking oil to toothpaste and toilet paper. The hyperinflation is
thought to be caused by the extravagant spending and vote-buying by
the late president, Hugo ChŠvez. However, the astronomically high
inflation of the past few years turned into hyperinflation this year
because of an August, 2012, explosion at the government-owned Amuay
Refinery, killing 42, reducing Venezuela's oil exports by 25%.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, full-scale
hyperinflation happens, with very few exceptions, in generational
Unraveling eras. Venezuela is currently in a generational Unraveling
era (see "Students riot against Hugo Chavez in Venezuela"
from 2007). Germany's famous Weimar
hyperinflation occurred during an Unraveling era, as did Zimbabwe's
hyperinflation. In America, there was 30% inflation from 1977 to
1980, near the end of America's Awakening era, but this was well below
the "hyperinflation" level.

Today, America, Europe and much of the world are in a generational
Crisis era, a period when the bills come due for all the excesses of
the previous Unraveling era. Although America did not have
hyperinflation during the 1990s, it did have the huge tech stock
market bubble that led to the Nasdaq crash in 2000, and eventually to
the current financial crisis (which is far from over). There is no
hyperinflation during generational Crisis eras, because when the bills
come due, people stop spending money, and society goes into a
deflationary spiral. World Socialist Web Site and Venezuelanalysis

****
**** Russia-spawned Al-Muhajireen terrorists fight Russia's allies in Syria
****


There's increasing evidence of the violent blowback threatening Russia
that Russia's policies in Syria are creating.

Russia's policy of providing support for and supplying weapons to
Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad has spawned a major new
al-Qaeda linked jihadist group, Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar (the Army
of the Immigrants) in Russia's own North Caucasus provinces that is
fighting against al-Assad in Syria. The group reportedly has over
1,400 Russian members, most of them with past military experience in
the North Caucasus, and is headed by a commander from Chechnya, Abu
Abdurakhman. According to one Russian official, young people from
Chechnya first travel to Azerbaijan, from where they travel to Turkey
and then on to Syria:

<QUOTE>"Young people are lured there by allegations that
there is Ďjihadí going on [in Syria] and that there is a fatwa by
famous Islamic scholars about that. So they think that
participating in the Syrian war is the direct obligation of every
faithful Muslim."<END QUOTE>

Chechen jihadists in particular are attracted to the fight in Syria,
according to another official, because of the two wars between Russia
and Chechnya in the 1990s:

<QUOTE>"People here know that the Russian government supports
Bashar Assadís regime, so participation in the hostilities against
Syrian authorities is for them a continuation of the war with
Russia."<END QUOTE>

But jihadists outside Russia are joining al-Muhajireen as well.
Citizens of Tunisia, Libya, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
and Uzbekistan have also gone off to Syria to join their Russian
brethren's fight against al-Assad's regime.

Another reason for jihadist interest in Syria is because of the
connection to the jihad against Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

These jihadists are getting training and developing skills in in
fighting Russian weapons and Russian tactics in Syria. When the war
ends, they'll have to go somewhere to use all those new skills, and
that might be any country.

As I wrote in "18-Sep-13 World View -- Russia and Vladimir Putin pursue a disastrous Syria policy"
, Russia's policies not only harm the United Nations,
but also are inflaming Shia/Sunni fault lines throughout the Mideast,
which will inevitably lead to a wider war. Jamestown and BBC

****
**** Ex-Guantanamo prisoner dies fighting Assad in Syria
****


A jihadist group in Syria has posted the video of a former GuantŠnamo
prisoner, who was released by the Bush administration, and who went to
Syria to fight a jihad there. At the funeral, another former
GuantŠnamo prisoner delivered the eulogy:

<QUOTE>"He went to the jihad in Afghanistan with his family
and children to aid the downtrodden in the name of God.

He went through hardship for the sake of God in the prison of the
Americans in GuantŠnamo for five years and he was patient through
his plight and he did not change, waited until God lifted him and
he was released.

He then went to the land of al Sham (Syria) ... He saw death and
dispossession and destruction, so he went in response to God. ...

I knew him, God have mercy on his soul, one of the best youth of
the community of believers. He was pious, devout and honest and
had God on his tongue at all times. In his heart he had a love for
God and Muslims."<END QUOTE>

People talk about GuantŠnamo prison as a "recruiting tool" for
al-Qaeda, but that's nothing compared to Syria as a recruiting tool
for all kinds of jihadists. Miami Herald


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez,
Weimar hyperinflation, Zimbabwe hyperinflation,
Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar, the Army of the Immigrants,
Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Chechnya,
Abu Abdurakhman, Guantanamo, Afghanistan

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Post#832 at 09-25-2013 11:30 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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A scenario in which Japan allies with India was discussed in The Coming War With Japan. The book analyzed geo-politics for the USA and Japan. However, the author assumed that the war would be between USA and Japan/India. The author assumed a weak China.
Last edited by TimWalker; 09-25-2013 at 11:43 PM.







Post#833 at 09-26-2013 07:55 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
A scenario in which Japan allies with India was discussed in The Coming War With Japan. The book analyzed geo-politics for the USA and Japan. However, the author assumed that the war would be between USA and Japan/India. The author assumed a weak China.
A lot of world systems people assumed the same thing back in the 90s when they were talking about the next macrodecision point/glibar war in the 20s. It looks like the US is building an anti-China coalition with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and India, or trying to. It remains to be seen how it firms up, if it does. The election of people like Narendra Modi or Toru Hashimoto (although Abe himself is pretty nationalist) would help confirm it. We'll see.







Post#834 at 09-26-2013 11:01 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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27-Sep-13 World View - How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast

*** 27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast
  • Pakistan's PM Nawaz Sharif under fire over peace talks with Taliban


****
**** How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast
****



Nasrallah gives a televised speech on April 30 (Daily Star)

The Mideast changed dramatically on April 30 of this year, when Sayyed
Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanon-based Shia terror group
Hezbollah, gave a televised speech saying that Hezbollah would militarily enter the fight in Syria
,
on the side of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and
then followed up by winning an overwhelming victory against Syria's
opposition in Qusair. (See
"6-Jun-13 World View -- Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair" .)

That was the point in time when Syria's civil war turned into a war
between Sunnis and Shias in the Mideast. That was the time when the
Sunni terror group Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar (the Army of the
Immigrants) was formed in Russia's Chechnya province for the purpose
of fighting against the Alawite/Shia forces of the al-Assad. That was
the time when the trickle of Sunni jihadists coming to Syria to fight
began to turn into a flood, arriving from central Asia, northern
Africa, and Russia's southern Caucasus provinces.

It turns out that many of Hezbollah's leaders were reluctant
to take the step into Syria. Hezbollah's mission had never
been anything but leading "the resistance" -- which is the phrase
that stands for expelling Israel from the region. These leaders
feared that abandoning the resistance going into Syria would
mean that they would be permanently embroiled there for years,
abandoning their main mission, the resistance.

So why did they go ahead with the Syria mission? It's because they
were ordered to do so by Hezbollah's master and funding source, Iran.
Nasrallah's announcement came just a few days after he returned from a
trip to Tehran, where he had met with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Seyed Ali Khamenei. According to one Lebanese politician, "Nasrallah
is not going to say ĎNo' to someone who has given him $30 billion over
the past 30 years."

In many ways, the fears of the reluctant Hezbollah leaders have been
realized. It now appears that Hezbollah will become fully immersed in
the Syrian war, and part of the larger conflict between Shias and
Sunnis that is growing in the region. According to one former
Hezbollah leader, the minority Shias can never win a proxy
war with Sunnis:

<QUOTE>"Until recently, I had thought that armed resistance
(against Israel) is a top priority and a precious goal... Those
seeking to fortify the resistance should not drag it into war
between Sunnis and Shi'ites... That strife will consume
everybody."<END QUOTE>

In addition, the Syrian conflict has been a new monetary disaster for
Iran. According to a Lebanese security official, "Syria is sucking up
Iran's reserves, with the Islamic Republic paying between $600-700
million a month (just towards the cost of fighting in Syria)."

It's worth noting that this is the backdrop against which Iran has
been pursuing its so-called "charm offensive" at the United Nations
this week. The Syrian conflict may have made Iran desperate enough to
seek some kind of game changer, so Iran may be more willing to make
concessions than we realize. Reuters

****
**** Pakistan's PM Nawaz Sharif under fire over peace talks with Taliban
****


People in Pakistan are increasingly using the word "appeasement" to
describe the continuing insistence by the new prime minister Nawaz
Sharif to hold peace talks with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the
Pakistani Taliban). It was a major campaign promise by Sharif that
instead of getting tough with the TTP, he would end the constant
stream of violent terrorist attacks across Pakistan by talking with
them. The TTP have indicated that they would be willing to
participate in peace talks under certain conditions -- TTP prisoners
must be released from jail, the army must be released from the tribal
areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must
agree to impose Sharia law on the country. Sharif has certainly not
rejected these demands, perhaps dreamily hoping that they could be
negotiated down. But what's really crushing Sharif's dreams is that
TTP is continuing its major terrorist attacks -- an attack that killed
three army officers on September 15 in Upper Dir, and a major attack
on a Christian Church in Peshawar on September 22.

Former president Asif Ali Zardari, whose wife Benazir Bhutto was
killed by a terrorist attack in 2007, said last week in a veiled
criticism of Sharif:

<QUOTE>"The greatest... threat to democracy emanates from the
militant mindset [that] seeks to impose their agenda through
force.

If there has been any doubt about the futility of appeasing the
militants these must be removed by the incident in Upper Dir
today."<END QUOTE>

On the other hand, you have Imran Khan, the former cricket superstar
turned anti-American politician who opposed Nawaz Sharif and lost, who
continues to insist that peace talks with the TTP are the way to go,
despite no letup in terrorist attacks.

In fact, there are a significant number of TTP supporters in Pakistan,
no matter how many innocent people they blow up in mosques and
churches. Similarly, there are plenty of people who are so in love
with Syria's president Bashar al-Assad that no matter how many
thousands of innocent women and children he orders raped, mutilated,
massacred and slaughtered, they'll continue to support and cherish
him. Here in the United States, President Obama could pick up a gun
and kill somebody, and the NY Times and NBC News would find a way to
blame it on the Republicans.

The increasing number of sycophants of the kind that I've just
described is characteristic of today's generational Crisis era. In
America's last Crisis era, one group of sycophants admired Benito
Mussolini, saying that he kept the trains running on time, other
sycophants admired Adolf Hitler for whatever reason, and a third group
admired Josef Stalin because they loved Communism. This sycophantic
admiration for leaders, even when they turn into monsters, is what
characterized the last Crisis era and the current one, and is one of
the reasons why a war is inevitable. Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
Syria, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar,
Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP,
Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto, Imran Khan

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Post#835 at 09-27-2013 10:52 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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28-Sep-13 World View -- U.N. Security Council passes Syria resolution

*** 28-Sep-13 World View -- U.N. Security Council passes overhyped, totally irrelevant resolution on Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Spain to switch from Nazi time to British time
  • Washington gives $100 million non-bailout bailout money to Detroit
  • U.N. Security Council passes overhyped, totally irrelevant resolution on Syria
  • U.N. Climate panel issues overhyped, totally irrelevant climate change report


****
**** Spain to switch from Nazi time to British time
****



Nazi leader Adolf Hitler meets Fascist leader Francisco Franco in 1940 (Time Magazine)

Based on its longitude, the country Spain, like Britain, is well
within the region of the Western European time zone. However, in
1940, Spain's Fascist dictator Francisco Franco met with Adolf Hitler,
who convinced him to switch Central European Time, so that Spain's
clocks would be synchronized with Germany's. The result has been that
Spanish workers never seem to get enough sleep, which is why they need
a siesta during the day. But now Spain's government plans to move the
country back to West European time, which might mean the end of the
siesta for many Spaniards. However, one Spanish citizen commented on
the move to British time, "Maybe we should also drive on the left
side, get drunk over the weekend and have only three typical dishes
instead of thousands." International Business Times

****
**** Washington gives $100 million non-bailout bailout money to Detroit
****


The Obama administration bailed out General Motors when it was close
to bankruptcy, and is now getting requests to bail out Detroit, which
has already filed for bankruptcy. However, there isn't a lot of
support these days for a new bailout, with the sequester and such.
But the Administration has found a way anyway. They've identified
$100 million earmarked for discretionary grants that have never been
granted, and they're reassigning the grants to their good pals in
Detroit. However, this is not a "bailout," since these are grants.

Detroit is also planning to use Obamacare as a vehicle for an even
larger non-bailout bailout. Detroit has some $6 billion in unfunded
liabilities for health care for retirees. Detroit is planning to tell
its retirees to apply for health insurance in the Obamacare exchanges.
Detroit will pay the retirees a small stipend to help pay for the
insurance. In addition, Washington will pay each retiree an Obamacare
subsidy. And so, the retirees get their health insurance, Detroit
saves over $1 billion in health care funding, and the Obama
administration gets the undying love of their good pals in Detroit.
So everybody wins. Right? Washington Times and Business Insider

****
**** U.N. Security Council passes overhyped, totally irrelevant resolution on Syria
****


The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to adopt a
resolution that requires Syria to eliminate its arsenal of chemical
weapons. Unfortunately, if the Syrian regime's psychopathic president
Bashar al-Assad simply ignores the threat and goes on ordering the
rape, mutilation and massacre of innocent women and children on a
large scale, then the only "punishment" that the resolution specifies
is a threat to hold another Security Council meeting. So Russia got
its way once again, and has humiliated President Obama and the United
States once again. The mainstream media is calling the resolution
"historic" and a "landmark decision," but then again, the NY Times and
NBC News will call President Obama eating a hamburger "historic."
NBC News/AP

****
**** U.N. Climate panel issues overhyped, totally irrelevant climate change report
****


The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued on
Friday a so-called "landmark report" that's dead on arrival, and
deservedly so. It says that it proves with near absolutely certainty
that human activity is the cause of carbon emissions, and that they're
resulting in global warming. Even if that's true, then so what?

I keep receiving scorn whenever I compare the climate change
scientists to scientists in the year 1900 who might have said that the
increase in the growth of horse crap was due to human activity. And
yet, not one of these scornful comments has ever showed why this
comparison is invalid.

Climate scientists today predict that carbon emissions will raise the
temperature of the earth by X degrees by 2100. Horse crap scientists
in 1900 could have predicted that there would be X inches of horse
crap all over the place by 2000.

Horse crap scientists in 1900 would have had absolutely no inkling
that the Model T Ford would be coming along soon to solve the horse
crap problem, all without government help. If they had recommended
the funding of any government programs, they would have been programs
to develop a new kind of feed for horses that would produce less horse
crap, and the program would have been a disaster.

Today's climate scientists have been recommending government programs
related to green energy, all of which have failed, as illustrated by
the Solyndra disaster. Climate scientists have absolutely no inkling
of new technologies that will be coming along to solve the carbon
emissions problems. There are probably thousands of commercial firms
in the world trying to develop products to reduce carbon emissions,
and when one of them finds something, they'll patent it, bring it to
market and make enormous sums of money. And they'll do it all without
government help.

In November, 2009, thousands of e-mail messages were hacked from the
web server at East Anglia University, the place at the heart of
"climate science." There were thousands of e-mail messages online
from a period of several years. I did a search of the hacked East
Anglian e-mail messages for the word "Singularity," and it doesn't
appear once. You would think that these brilliant scientists would
have at least asked the question of one another: "Hey, what about the
Singularity?" But apparently it was never asked once. It must have
been forbidden subject, since it conflicts with their own claims.
(See "Climate Change conference in Copenhagen is all about getting green -- money"
from 2009.)

Even if you don't "believe" that the Singularity is going to occur,
there's still absolutely no question that intelligent computer
technology and nanotechnology is going to explode in the 2020s. These
will bring a wealth of new technologies and products that will reverse
the growth of carbon emissions in the same way that the Model T Ford
reversed the growth of horse crap emissions in the last century.

The reason that "climate scientists" can't even stand to think about
such things is because it's all about the money:

  • In 2007, I wrote "UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce,"

    about Louis Redshaw, a Barclays Capital banker, who was hoping to make
    millions of dollars who was hoping to sell synthetic carbon emissions
    securities to unsuspecting investors in the same way that Barclays and
    other banks sold synthetic subprime mortgage securities.
  • Lots of people want the federal government to fund their favorite
    "green projects." If the projects were any good, they wouldn't need
    federal funds, because investors would provide them with all the
    capital they need.
  • Countries in Asia and Africa are clamoring for a "climate change
    Marshall Plan," where the United States gives billions of dollars away
    to corrupt governments, supposedly as reparations for causing them
    climate change pain.


I want to emphasize that this is what it's all about, even if every
word in Friday's climate change report is true. The report is
irrelevant because the carbon emission problem will be taken care of
by new technologies that the "climate scientists" don't have a clue
about, and don't even want to think about. UN IPCC Report and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Adolf Hitler, Francisco Franco,
Detroit, Obamacare, Security Council, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad,
United Nations, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
East Anglia University, Singularity,
Barclays Bank, Louis Redshaw, Marshall Plan

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Post#836 at 09-27-2013 11:43 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Jesus, is central European time really "Nazi Time"?







Post#837 at 09-28-2013 02:10 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Jesus, is central European time really "Nazi Time"?
pbrower is hardly the only one-trick pony here.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc Ítre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŗ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce Ítre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#838 at 09-28-2013 10:29 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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09-28-2013, 10:29 PM #838
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29-Sep-13 World View -- Violence in Afghanistan surges in September

*** 29-Sep-13 World View -- Violence in Afghanistan surges in September

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Leaders of Greece's Golden Dawn 'criminal organization' arrested
  • Number of violent incidents in Afghanistan surge in September


****
**** Leaders of Greece's Golden Dawn 'criminal organization' arrested
****



Pavlos Fyssas, or Killah P, rapped against racism (BBC)

In an extraordinary move, Greece's police have arrested the leader of
the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, Nikolaos Michaloliakos, and formally
charged him with belonging to a criminal organization. Dozens more
members have been arrested as well, including four MPs (holding seats
in Greece's parliament). The charges include homicide, attempted
homicide, money laundering, blackmail, grievous bodily harm, and other
serious crimes.

Not since the end of Greece's military dictatorship in 1974 has there
been a mass arrest of MPs. Due to the nature of the charges, it's
clear that the government has been preparing for this day for a long
time, but has been reluctant to take steps for fear of a political
backlash.

Nonetheless, there may still be a backlash. Because of the financial
crisis, hundreds of thousands of Greeks have indicated in polls that
they wanted to vote for Golden Dawn, even though Golden Dawn party
members have openly assaulted immigrants and other people that they
don't like, and called for deportation of even Greek citizens who are
not pure ethnic Greeks. The Greek public only turned against Golden
Dawn on September 18, after self-identified Golden Dawn members
murdered a white Greek civilian, Pavlos Fyssas, or Killah P, who
rapped against the kind of racism that Golden Dawn practices. That
killing shocked the Greek public, and allowed the government to go
ahead with the arrests of Golden Dawn members, but with Golden Dawn so
popular in the past, a backlash is still feared as the memory of the
death of Killah P recedes. Kathimerini and BBC and Kathimerini

****
**** Number of violent incidents in Afghanistan surge in September
****


As Nato and American forces withdraw from Afghanistan, the dreamy hope
is that the amount of violence will go down, sort of like what
happened in Iraq before the American forces were withdrawn in December
2011. But a new report shows that the number of security incidents --
bombings, shootings and other violent attacks -- has been increasing
and surged significantly in September. The table of monthly security
incidents is as follows:


Month .......... Number of incidents
---------------..-------------------
Mar ............. 167
Apr ............ 1145
May ............ 1363
June ........... 1317
July ........... 1466
Aug ............ 1205
Sep to 26 Sep .. 1724


President Barack Obama adopted a "surge" strategy in Afghanistan
because he was hoping to repeat the enormous success of President
George Bush's "surge" strategy in Iraq. But as I wrote at the time,
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are significant
differences between Iraq and Afghanistan that make a surge strategy in
Afghanistan very unlikely to succeed, even though it worked in Iraq,
and it has to do with the fact that Iraq's last generational crisis
war (the Iran/Iraq war, 1980-88) was an EXTERNAL war, while for
Afghanistan it was a bloody internal CIVIL war (1991-96).
(See "2-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. decision on Haqqani Network will affect Pakistan relations" )

When a country unites to fight a foreign enemy in a generational
crisis war, then that feeling of unity survives through the
following Recovery and Awakening eras. But when a generational
crisis civil war splits a country, that split survives into
the following Recovery and Awakening eras.

So forget about generational theory, and just imagine what's been
going on in Afghanistan. The civil war pit the Pashtuns in southern
Afghanistan against the the Northern Alliance, an alliance of Tajiks,
Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Each of these two sides
raped, mutilated, tortured and massacred people on the other side,
there are many people alive today who remember those horrors. So
there's no way that these ethnic groups are going to get along, even
as well as they do in Iraq. In Iraq, the main instigators of violence
are Sunni jihadist foreign fighters, but in Afghanistan, it's the
Afghan people themselves.

Some analysts are talking about a "Pashtun uprising," pointing to the
fact that the Taliban are jihadist Pashtuns, implying a renewal of the
1990s civil war. This is impossible in a generational Awakening era.
There will be no new civil war, but there will be an increase in
"security incidents" and low-level violence of all sorts, particularly
as the American and Nato forces leave. KGS Night Watch


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Nato, Iraq, surge,
Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Tajiks, Northern Alliance, Taliban,
Greece, Golden Dawn, Nikolaos Michaloliakos,
Pavlos Fyssas, Killah P

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Post#839 at 09-28-2013 10:51 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Uh, wasn't there an internal AND external component to Afghanistan's Crisis? For that matter, wasn't there an internal and external component to Iraq's as well? I'm not really sure of the distinction you are trying to draw between the two.







Post#840 at 09-28-2013 11:02 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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09-28-2013, 11:02 PM #840
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
> Uh, wasn't there an internal AND external component to
> Afghanistan's Crisis? For that matter, wasn't there an internal
> and external component to Iraq's as well? I'm not really sure of
> the distinction you are trying to draw between the two.
The Kurds were an internal component in the Iran/Iraq war, and the
Kurds want nothing to do with the Baghdad government today. That
makes the same point, but I didn't want to add a paragraph going into
all that.

As for the Afghan civil war, I'm not aware of any significant external
component, though with the fluid Pakistan borders that may be hard to
tell.

I suppose I could try to expand the explanation to take into account
MOSTLY internal versus MOSTLY external wars, but that would take
several paragraphs, and the same principles would apply anyway.
Basically, once a woman tries to kill her husband, it's not a good
idea to have the continue to live in the same house.







Post#841 at 09-28-2013 11:27 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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09-28-2013, 11:27 PM #841
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
The Kurds were an internal component in the Iran/Iraq war, and the
Kurds want nothing to do with the Baghdad government today. That
makes the same point, but I didn't want to add a paragraph going into
all that.

As for the Afghan civil war, I'm not aware of any significant external
component, though with the fluid Pakistan borders that may be hard to
tell.

I suppose I could try to expand the explanation to take into account
MOSTLY internal versus MOSTLY external wars, but that would take
several paragraphs, and the same principles would apply anyway.
Basically, once a woman tries to kill her husband, it's not a good
idea to have the continue to live in the same house.
Erm, weren't the Afghans invaded by the Russians in 1979, and the Americans in 2001? Was their Crisis like 5 years long or something?







Post#842 at 09-29-2013 01:19 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Jesus, is central European time really "Nazi Time"?
Yeah, right -- 68 years after time ran out on the National Satanists.

Britain and Ireland are roughly due north of Spain and probably should be on the same time. But that said, the Spanish would be wise to avoid adopting traditional British cuisine, which is awful. Driving on the left makes little sense on the Continent, though. One has to go through the Channel Tunnel to get between Spain and Britain without going over a long stretch of water... and of course France.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#843 at 09-29-2013 02:01 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
****
**** U.N. Climate panel issues overhyped, totally irrelevant climate change report
****


The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued on
Friday a so-called "landmark report" that's dead on arrival, and
deservedly so. It says that it proves with near absolutely certainty
that human activity is the cause of carbon emissions, and that they're
resulting in global warming. Even if that's true, then so what?

I keep receiving scorn whenever I compare the climate change
scientists to scientists in the year 1900 who might have said that the
increase in the growth of horse crap was due to human activity. And
yet, not one of these scornful comments has ever showed why this
comparison is invalid.

Climate scientists today predict that carbon emissions will raise the
temperature of the earth by X degrees by 2100. Horse crap scientists
in 1900 could have predicted that there would be X inches of horse
crap all over the place by 2000.

Horse crap scientists in 1900 would have had absolutely no inkling
that the Model T Ford would be coming along soon to solve the horse
crap problem, all without government help. If they had recommended
the funding of any government programs, they would have been programs
to develop a new kind of feed for horses that would produce less horse
crap, and the program would have been a disaster.

Today's climate scientists have been recommending government programs
related to green energy, all of which have failed, as illustrated by
the Solyndra disaster. Climate scientists have absolutely no inkling
of new technologies that will be coming along to solve the carbon
emissions problems. There are probably thousands of commercial firms
in the world trying to develop products to reduce carbon emissions,
and when one of them finds something, they'll patent it, bring it to
market and make enormous sums of money. And they'll do it all without
government help.

In November, 2009, thousands of e-mail messages were hacked from the
web server at East Anglia University, the place at the heart of
"climate science." There were thousands of e-mail messages online
from a period of several years. I did a search of the hacked East
Anglian e-mail messages for the word "Singularity," and it doesn't
appear once. You would think that these brilliant scientists would
have at least asked the question of one another: "Hey, what about the
Singularity?" But apparently it was never asked once. It must have
been forbidden subject, since it conflicts with their own claims.
(See "Climate Change conference in Copenhagen is all about getting green -- money"
from 2009.)

Even if you don't "believe" that the Singularity is going to occur,
there's still absolutely no question that intelligent computer
technology and nanotechnology is going to explode in the 2020s. These
will bring a wealth of new technologies and products that will reverse
the growth of carbon emissions in the same way that the Model T Ford
reversed the growth of horse crap emissions in the last century.

The reason that "climate scientists" can't even stand to think about
such things is because it's all about the money:

  • In 2007, I wrote "UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce,"

    about Louis Redshaw, a Barclays Capital banker, who was hoping to make
    millions of dollars who was hoping to sell synthetic carbon emissions
    securities to unsuspecting investors in the same way that Barclays and
    other banks sold synthetic subprime mortgage securities.
  • Lots of people want the federal government to fund their favorite
    "green projects." If the projects were any good, they wouldn't need
    federal funds, because investors would provide them with all the
    capital they need.
  • Countries in Asia and Africa are clamoring for a "climate change
    Marshall Plan," where the United States gives billions of dollars away
    to corrupt governments, supposedly as reparations for causing them
    climate change pain.


I want to emphasize that this is what it's all about, even if every
word in Friday's climate change report is true. The report is
irrelevant because the carbon emission problem will be taken care of
by new technologies that the "climate scientists" don't have a clue
about, and don't even want to think about. UN IPCC Report and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Adolf Hitler, Francisco Franco,
Detroit, Obamacare, Security Council, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad,
United Nations, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
East Anglia University, Singularity,
Barclays Bank, Louis Redshaw, Marshall Plan

Permanent web link to this article
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Wrong saeculum to be preaching that ideology. Dionysian rhythms will prove popular over the Apollonian one you're pitching. Dionysian rhythms are ones which demand a price to be paid. Unfortunately the whole story that the Environmental movement has woven for itself fits that bill quite well--that climate change is the "price" for "progress". The whole Dionysian rhythm will eventually fall out of favor with the next Awakening, which if I were to predict any time for that singularity to happen, it would be closer to the 2040s than the 2020s. Personally I would rather it not come, and I kinda doubt it will, but I'll still give it its possibility to exist at the same time.

The last time your Apollonian message would've been popular, well, I think you can guess when just from this video:



Personally I'm just taking each day as it comes for the moment.

~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-29-2013 at 02:06 AM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#844 at 09-29-2013 08:10 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
> Erm, weren't the Afghans invaded by the Russians in 1979, and the
> Americans in 2001? Was their Crisis like 5 years long or
> something?
The Russian invasion of Afghanistan was a non-crisis war for both
sides. The real crisis civil war was 1991-96. That was resolved with
the Taliban in control, until the American invasion, which was another
non-crisis war in a Recovery Era.







Post#845 at 09-29-2013 08:15 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
> The last time your Apollonian message would've been popular, well,
> I think you can guess when just from this video:



> Personally I'm just taking each day as it comes for the moment.

That was very inspirational. I think I'll go out now and slay
a few dragons.







Post#846 at 09-29-2013 09:56 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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The Russian invasion of Afghanistan was a non-crisis war for both
sides. The real crisis civil war was 1991-96. That was resolved with
the Taliban in control, until the American invasion, which was another
non-crisis war in a Recovery Era.
Couple of points. First, are you one of those people who claims that Russia is in a Crisis now? That the collapse of the Soviet Union was an Unraveling event?

Also, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan lasted from 1979 to 1989, and the Afghan uprisings that prompted it started a couple of years before. Are you claiming the Crisis for them was only 5 years long? I get claiming that the Civil War and the rise of the Taliban was the climax of the Crisis, but excluding the previous decade and a half of war and institutional upheaval seems strange.







Post#847 at 09-29-2013 11:13 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
> Couple of points. First, are you one of those people who claim
> that Russia is in a Crisis now? That the collapse of the Soviet
> Union was an Unraveling event?

> Also, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan lasted from 1979 to 1989,
> and the Afghan uprisings that prompted it started a couple of
> years before. Are you claiming the Crisis for them was only 5
> years long? I get claiming that the Civil War and the rise of the
> Taliban was the climax of the Crisis, but excluding the
> previous decade and a half of war and institutional upheaval seems
> strange.
There's a difference between a crisis era and a crisis war.
A crisis war can also start during the Unraveling era or
during the Fifth Turning that follows a Crisis Era, if no
crisis war has occurred up to that time.

Once a series of Regeneracy events trigger a new crisis war, it
gathers strength until there's a crisis war climax. America's three
crisis wars lasted 7 years, 5 years, and 4 years, respectively, so
that appears to be a typical time range. Institutional upheaval does
not count as crisis war.

A crisis war climax triggers the beginning of a new saeculum cycle.
The era time spans are pretty much fixed, since they depend on
generational changes, which are irreversible. In particular, they are
not event driven, as some claim. The Crisis Era begins at a certain
time, irrespective of events.

The timeline following a crisis war climax is roughly as follows:

climax + 0 years: Recovery Era
climax + 15 years: Awakening Era
climax + 36 years: Unraveling Era
climax + 58 years: Crisis Era
climax + 78 years: Fifth Turning

Those time spans are pretty much fixed. The only event that's caused
by events is the Regeneracy events. Regeneracy events can trigger a
new crisis war at any time, but the probability that an event will
trigger a new crisis war is very small during the Recovery and
Awakening eras, and then increases as the eras flow, until the crisis
era makes the probability fairly high. Basically, the probability of
an event triggering a new crisis war is correlated to the percentage
of the population that are in generations that survived the previous
crisis war. Thus, there are no sharp divisions between the eras, but
gradual changes that accumulate.

If an unexpected mass invasion occurs duing an Awakening era, then the
country will fight (or not fight) with Awakening era behaviors. But
if the invasion is sufficiently brutal, then there'll be a "First
Turning reset," meaning that the country will return to a Recovery Era
following the war climax. This seems to occur most frequently when
mass migrations are forced on a population during an Awakening era.

Despite the rantings of the Justins of the world, the breakup of the
Soviet Union was no more a crisis war for Russia than 9/11 was a
crisis war for America, so yes, Russia is well into a Crisis era (or
Fifth Turning era) now. The 1980s Russian invasion of Afghanistan was
not a crisis war for anyone.







Post#848 at 09-29-2013 11:18 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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09-29-2013, 11:18 AM #848
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
There's a difference between a crisis era and a crisis war.
A crisis war can also start during the Unraveling era or
during the Fifth Turning that follows a Crisis Era, if no
crisis war has occurred up to that time.

Once a series of Regeneracy events trigger a new crisis war, it
gathers strength until there's a crisis war climax. America's three
crisis wars lasted 7 years, 5 years, and 4 years, respectively, so
that appears to be a typical time range. Institutional upheaval does
not count as crisis war.

A crisis war climax triggers the beginning of a new saeculum cycle.
The era time spans are pretty much fixed, since they depend on
generational changes, which are irreversible. In particular, they are
not event driven, as some claim. The Crisis Era begins at a certain
time, irrespective of events.

The timeline following a crisis war climax is roughly as follows:

climax + 0 years: Recovery Era
climax + 15 years: Awakening Era
climax + 36 years: Unraveling Era
climax + 58 years: Crisis Era
climax + 78 years: Fifth Turning

Those time spans are pretty much fixed. The only event that's caused
by events is the Regeneracy events. Regeneracy events can trigger a
new crisis war at any time, but the probability that an event will
trigger a new crisis war is very small during the Recovery and
Awakening eras, and then increases as the eras flow, until the crisis
era makes the probability fairly high. Basically, the probability of
an event triggering a new crisis war is correlated to the percentage
of the population that are in generations that survived the previous
crisis war. Thus, there are no sharp divisions between the eras, but
gradual changes that accumulate.

If an unexpected mass invasion occurs duing an Awakening era, then the
country will fight (or not fight) with Awakening era behaviors. But
if the invasion is sufficiently brutal, then there'll be a "First
Turning reset," meaning that the country will return to a Recovery Era
following the war climax. This seems to occur most frequently when
mass migrations are forced on a population during an Awakening era.

Despite the rantings of the Justins of the world, the breakup of the
Soviet Union was no more a crisis war for Russia than 9/11 was a
crisis war for America, so yes, Russia is well into a Crisis era (or
Fifth Turning era) now. The 1980s Russian invasion of Afghanistan was
not a crisis war for anyone.
That's certainly an... interesting interpretation of the theory. Really doubling down on the whole change =war meme, huh. So, when was Britain's Crisis war during the mid to late 19th century, then?







Post#849 at 09-29-2013 11:58 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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09-29-2013, 11:58 AM #849
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
> That's certainly an... interesting interpretation of the
> theory. Really doubling down on the whole change =war meme,
> huh. So, when was Britain's Crisis war during the mid to late 19th
> century, then?
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic....start=100#p238

http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...531#post187531
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...532#post187532
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...591#post187591







Post#850 at 09-29-2013 03:02 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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09-29-2013, 03:02 PM #850
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
There's a difference between a crisis era and a crisis war.
The first demonstrably exists, while the second demonstrably does not? That's the difference, right?

It's more than a little depressing to see how clearly-manifested cyclical happenings get ignored or passed over just because no large masses of people elected to go shooting other large masses of people. Particularly when the whole masses-of-people-shooting-each-other isn't something that happens with any kind of cyclical regularity or for which any real cyclical mechanism has been shown with any sort of rigor to exist at all. It's almost as if some people are taking the credibility earned by someone else's hard work and analysis and using the cover of somewhat ambiguous wording and naming-conventions to hijack it to support their own, totally different claims.

Credibility doesn't work that way.
Last edited by Justin '77; 09-29-2013 at 03:07 PM.
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