Am I to understand stand that your argument is that if a crisis doesn't conclude with a war then the saeculum goes into overtime, but that the country doesn't necessarily have to participate in that war for it to qualify? How does that make sense?Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
It's always such a pleasure, Justin.
Well, the example that I like to point to is Kansas in WW II. There
was no war in Kansas, but WW II was still a crisis war for Kansas.
I've tried in the past to define what it means for a war to be a
crisis war for a country or region that didn't actively participate in
the war. S&H essentially punted on the question by saying that, for
example, WW II was a crisis war for everyone in the world. That
simply makes no sense whatsoever. I've been able to dispatch that
idea with the "Principal of Localization" that I described in my book.
** Book 1 - Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...alization1.htm
** Book I / Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...alization2.htm
The best I've come up with is that all such countries share "a common
cultural memory." This is much better than the S&H concept, but it's
still too vague to be of much use.
One modern example that I sometimes point to is the 9/11 attack.
The attack took place in NYC and DC, so one would think that
only people from New York or DC would even care. But in fact,
the entire nation was traumatized, sharing a "common cultural
memory" with NYers and DCers. The same could be said for
the Pearl Harbor attack, which was even more remote.
England in the 1860s has been a particularly difficult puzzle. We had
many discussions about this issue in the mid-2000s decade. In the
end, the most reasonable conclusion seemed to be that the American
Civil War was a crisis war for England. It's a bit of a stretch, but
there are also a lot of reasons why it makes sense. At any rate, no
one has come up with anything better, that I'm aware of.
But why does the conclusion of the Crisis need to be a war? Can't the clock reset on its own? What is the significance of war, in this context? How far does this "shared cultural memory" go? Is it only English speaking countries? The West in general? How about other "civilizations"? Why abandon the generational constellation model, and the four turning sequence associated with it?
I don't have the vaguest clue what you're talking about, or why you're
asking me this. As you're well aware, today's World View column
contains a brief generational analysis of Afghanistan, and as you're
well aware, you even asked me some questions about it, but Afghanistan
is not an English speaking country nor part of the West, nor part of
the Western civilization.
Been there, done this. Xenakis went through a similar dance with several posters in the past, notably the poster now known as Zarathustra. If you’re interested enough to go through all the old arguments, be aware that Zarathustra was known as Peter Gibbons and William Jennings Bryan at various times.
Have fun.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
That was a horrific nightmare that I certainly don't want to repeat.
Because you still haven't come up with answers to those questions (now repeated by yet another poster)?
Maybe.... it's because the questions don't have good answers? I know that's an existentially-threatening thing for the classic Boomer to consider about his own convictions, but still... it's out there.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch
"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy
"[it] is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky
1. I receive questions and comments all the time and I always answer
serious questions as time allows. I answered several of Jordan's
questions at length today, but I have no responsibility to answer
questions that don't make sense, especially since I have very little
free time, since I work during the day as a Senior Software Engineer,
and every evening writing my World View column. If Jordan would like
to repeat his question in a sensible form, I'll try to answer it.
2. The Generational Dynamics daily World View articles have thousands
of regular readers. Many of them write to me thanking me and praising
me for providing information that isn't available anywhere else. I
also have my own forum where I answer questions. I very rarely
experience hate-filled vitriol except in this forum.
3. Generational Dynamics won an award from Computer Sciences
Corporation
** 4-Oct-10 News -- Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC) presents award for Generational Dynamics
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...04.htm#e101004
4. The Generational Dynamics web site contains almost 4,000 articles,
containing hundreds of predictions, all of which have either come true
or are trending true. Not a single one has been proven wrong. In
2005, and many times since then, I've challenged the world to find a
web site, analyst, politician, or journalist with anything close to
the predictive success of Generational Dynamics, and none has been
found.
I work very hard for very long hours, I'm good at what I do, I've
accomplished a great deal, and the results speak for themselves. The
only thing that lazy "Classic Gen-X" morons like you can do is sit
around in your easy chairs, drink beer, rant endlessly, and make
ridiculous personal attacks that border on hysteria and reek of
jealousy. Cheers!
Now if you guys will leave me alone for a while, I have a World View
column to write this evening, and I hope to actually get some sleep
tonight.
30-Sep-13 World View -- Algeria cracks down on jihadists headed for Syria
*** 30-Sep-13 World View -- Algeria cracks down on jihadists headed for Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Algeria cracks down on jihadists headed for Syria
- In a major shift, Mali becomes the new jihadist training ground
- Top 50 tools to safeguard your personal information
****
**** Algeria cracks down on jihadists headed for Syria
****
Algerian jihadists (AFP)
As I've written many times, the civil war in Syria, in which
Shia/Alewite Bashar al-Assad is being supplied with heavy weapons,
which he uses along with chemical weapons to massacre and torture
Sunni women and children, is serving as an enormous recruiting
opportunity for Sunni jihadists in South Asia, the Mideast, the
Maghreb (northern Africa), and the Caucasus. However, Algeria has
been cracking down on Syria-bound jihadists, by infiltrating and
dismantling recruitment cells.
However, that's only one of the reasons why the number of Algerian
jihadists headed for Syria has been kept under control. Other reasons
are:
- Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) refuses to support
jihad in Syria. They consider any fight by North African jihadists in
Syria as "illegitimate," in view of the fronts already open in Algeria
and northern Mali.- Algerians suffer discrimination in Syria. Non-Syrian Arab
jihadists are suspect to the point that field leaders refuse to give
them responsibilities.- Preachers and theologians have made calls urging young people
not to be deceived by fatwas calling for jihad in Syria.- They also criticize as plain adultery the so-called "Jihad
annikah", whereby women and girls from Tunisia and other countries
have gone to Syria as temporary wives to insurgents.
The results have been remarkably effective, as the number of Algerians
killed in Syria is far lower than then the number of Tunisians and
Libyans. Magharebia
****
**** In a major shift, Mali becomes the new jihadist training ground
****
Last year, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) did something no
other modern terrorist group has: conquered a large region within a
sovereign country -- the northern 2/3rds of Mali. France's
air and ground forces reconquered the north, with more than 4,000
French soldiers in Mali at the peak. But France will withdraw
3,000 of them this year, and the last thousand next year,
leaving defense of Mali in the hands of a United Nations
peacekeeping force, which may not be able to handle the job.
There is a major shift going on. American policy makers have long
treated the Middle East and South Asia as the main battlegrounds of
the war on terror, but those regions are quickly being joined by
Africa, which is now home to some of the largest and most active
Islamist militias in the world. AQIM is using Mali as a base to plot
sophisticated attacks outside its borders -- including last year's
Benghazi attack that killed the American ambassador. AQIM has
publicly promised to carry out attacks in France in revenge for the
intervention in Mali.
Since then, despite French intervention, northern Mali has become a
jihadist front and training camp, with Islamist militants flowing in
from around the world. While America remains focused on threats from
the Middle East and South Asia, the new face of terror is likely to be
African. AQIM is able to take advantage of the fact that many of the
continent’s countries have porous borders; weak and corrupt central
governments; undertrained and underequipped militaries; flourishing
drug trades that provide a steady source of income; and vast, lawless
spaces. And the reason that AQIM was able to conquer northern Mali in
the first place was because of vast treasure troves of Libyan weapons
left behind by the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Atlantic and AP
****
**** Top 50 tools to safeguard your personal information
****
A list of tools to foil hackers and identity thieves include: identity
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identify restoration. FreePeopleSearch
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Algeria, Syria, Tunisia, Libya,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Mali, France
Permanent web link to this article
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England entered the Crisis sometime in the late 1850s and came out sometime in the 1870s. I think you can trace the fact by how unpopular the monarchy was with the sentiment of wanting to abolish the monarchy rising in the 1860s and early 1870s constitutes a Crisis era.
Ultimately though the entire Crisis was more about establishing the Empire less than it was about any internal strife. The veterans of the Indian Rebellion of 1857 and the incorporation of more territory into the Empire come across as Civics. The Civics after this Crisis take pride in building the Empire afar--especially in India--much more than with any civil strife at home. So I think ultimately building and forging the Empire was a solution to the Crisis that England employed that turned the vets into Civics.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
One has to be careful using social indicators to define a crisis era.
Governments (monarchies) are unpopular at many times, especially
during an Awakening era. Basically, the popularity of the government
is usually correlated to the economy. However, I think I vaguely
recall that during the dicussion seven years ago somebody else
provided similar dates to yours for a different reason. If I can find
the posting, I'll let you know.
AQIM and Libyan weapons.... The Law of Unintended Consequences in action.
$ billions in "global warming reparations." I'm trying to imagine a politician trying to sell that to the American public.
Last edited by TimWalker; 09-30-2013 at 11:11 AM.
Erm, I'm asking you questions about stuff you're posting on a public forum because... that's how forums work. As for the rest of it, I don't see the source of confusion, but I'll try and break it down for you:I don't have the vaguest clue what you're talking about, or why you're
asking me this. As you're well aware, today's World View column
contains a brief generational analysis of Afghanistan, and as you're
well aware, you even asked me some questions about it, but Afghanistan
is not an English speaking country nor part of the West, nor part of
the Western civilization.
- I asked you a question about Afghanistan, because you stated that its "crisis war" was an internal one. When I asked about its Communist revolution and subsequent invasion by the Soviet Union, which happened during its 4T, you made this distinction between wars that happened during a Crisis and "Crisis wars", with the latter being what resets the saeculum back to zero for a country. I had never heard of this theory before, and wanted to know what the distinction you were drawing between the two was, and why you were supplementing the S & H theory with this additional component, and where you got it from. I've looked at your website, but to be frank its actually kind of patchy, and it doesn't look like it has been updated that much recently, other than the stuff that gets posted here.
- On a related note, I tried to clarify my understanding of your thoughts on how crisis wars resolve saeculums, as opposed to the generational cycle, by asking about Britain during the 19th century, which went for a hundred years without fighting a major war. Your response was that the US Civil War was its crisis war, despite its not actually participating in that conflict at all. You justified this explanation by talking about a "shared cultural memory", which somehow connected the two country's saecula. I wanted to know what you thought the mechanism for this was, and how it fit into your extension of the S & H model. Why the US Civil War and not, say, the Franco-Prussian war. Do you feel the connection is only between English speaking countries? Between Western countries in general? Can different civilizations share connections like this? Was the fact that Prussia, Austria, and France's saeculum (or, for that matter, Japan's, India's, and maybe China's) resolved at the same time a coincidence?
- And finally, to reiterate, where does this whole "crisis war" idea come from? Why does the saeculum need a war to resolve itself? What is significant about war in this case? What exactly does a fifth turning entail? How does that impact the generational model?
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 09-30-2013 at 12:06 PM.
I've never done a detailed generational timeline of Afghanistan, but I
believe that the previous crisis war was the revolt that climaxed in
1929. That would make 1979 the middle of the Unraveling Era, and so
the Russian invasion would be an Unraveling era non-crisis war. Once
the Russians left, Afghanistan officially entered a Crisis era, and
the extremely bloody and violent 1991-96 ensued.
If this subject interests you, this would be a good research project
for you. There appear to be numerous online sources on the history of
Afghanistan, and it would be good to have a well-researched timeline
that goes at least as far back as the Anglo-Afghan war that climaxed
in 1842. I'd be happy to help and make suggestions as you go along.
It's worthwhile to remember that there are hundreds of countries, and
each has its own unique generational timeline, which means analyzing
thousands of generational eras. I've done a lot of this analysis in
the past ten years, and in fact, Matt Ignal and Nathaniel Ament-Stone
contributed an enormous amount within this very forum. They set up a
thread at
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...Project-Thread
But there's still a lot to be done, and anyone who wants to help is
welcome.
OK, I understand your question now, but I'm not sure that I have a
complete answer. The concept of "shared cultural memory" certainly
does not imply English speaking countries, or Western countries. In
the book chapters on the Principal of Localization, I used the concept
of "identity groups," which I got from Samuel P. Huntington, and he
uses the Hausa and Ibo tribes in Nigeria as examples.. In many cases,
the identity groups are perfectly obvious. But when you're talking
about potentially thousands of situations throughout history, there
are going to be some that are more difficult to analyze. So, once
again, this is a potential research project, starting from
Huntington's work. If you decide to look at the Afghanistan
situation, there are lots of potential identity groups or shared
cultural groups -- the Pashtuns in Afghanistan with the Pashtuns in
Pakistan, the Hazaras in Afghanistan with the Hazaras in Pakistan, the
Uzbeks in Afghanistan with the Uzbeks in Uzbekistan, the Tajiks in
Afghanistan with the Tajiks in Tajikistan, and so forth. There are no
simple answers to all that, but I've found that when you spend the
time to dig into a particular situation, and look at multiple
historical sources, then everything falls into place.
S&H says that every Crisis era has to have a "crisis" that ends in a
"climax". They leave open the question of whether a "crisis" has to
be a "crisis war." The dynamics of the generational flow require that
the crisis has to be so severe that it unites the country behind the
leader (something that never happened to Russia in the 1990s,
incidentally). In my experience of looking at hundreds of these
things, it always has to be some variation of a crisis war. It has to
be something "existential," meaning that the country and its way of
life are perceived to be threatened with extinction. I don't know too
many things that fit that requirement.
There's another part of it that always seems to be a requirement: S&H
talk about the value of an individual human life falling to zero,
putting the survival of the nation or society at highest priority. So
you have American soldiers pouring onto the beaches at Normandy, where
the Nazis shot them down like fish in a barrel, and you have the
firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo, which killed more civilians than the
nuclear weapons. These situations become increasingly horrific as the
crisis climax approaches, which is why I always point out that the
survivors spend the rest of their lives making sure it doesn't happen
again. But the interesting thing that I've seen a number of times is
that the most horrific memories of the survivors are not what was done
to them, but what they did to others. I've come to believe that
this societal guilt is a major driver of the generational cycle.
At any rate, I'm just rambling on here. There are no simple formulas,
just a lot of research that still has to be done. If you're
interested, then join in. If not, then you'll just have to wait until
I fill in the "patchy" results with more research.
Yeah, a tentative classroom examination of its history suggests the conclusion of the first Anglo-Afghan War as the beginning of the last saeculum (circa 1842), placing the second Anglo-Afghan war (1878-1880) at the end of the 2T, which would explain why it went so much more poorly for them. The actual start of the next Crisis is a little fuzzy, but it definitely ended around 1929, or possibly 1933 with the accession of Zahir Shah to the throne (considering his father was assassinated). Modernization and reform picked up after WWII, and peaked in the 60s. Most of the pictures of cute Afghan girls in western clothes going to work and school, as well as most of the infrastructure, date from this period. The King was overthrown in 1973, by his cousin, and the Civil War started in 1991, so you might be right about the invasion being an Unraveling war. If so, the withdrawal of American troops next year might be the end of the Crisis era. Or possibly the toppling of the GIRoA shortly thereafter. We'll see. This would actually fit, as it means that their next 2T will begin shortly after the next global (West plus South and East Asia) crisis period in the 2020s.I've never done a detailed generational timeline of Afghanistan, but I
believe that the previous crisis war was the revolt that climaxed in
1929. That would make 1979 the middle of the Unraveling Era, and so
the Russian invasion would be an Unraveling era non-crisis war. Once
the Russians left, Afghanistan officially entered a Crisis era, and
the extremely bloody and violent 1991-96 ensued.
If so, the Hippy trail might be reopened by the 2040s, when our next 2T starts. Get your bus tickets now, before the Chinese New Boomers do.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to dig into the 19th century for a bit.
EDIT Tentative: Yaqub Khan (1879) as Jimmy Carter and Abdur Rahman ("The Iron Emir" 1880-1901) as Ronald Reagan.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 09-30-2013 at 05:41 PM.
This is a great analysis, and it always amazes me how things like> Yeah, a tentative classroom examination of its history suggests
> the conclusion of the first Anglo-Afghan War as the beginning of
> the last saeculum (circa 1842), placing the second Anglo-Afghan
> war (1878-1880) at the end of the 2T, which would explain why it
> went so much more poorly for them. The actual start of the next
> Crisis is a little fuzzy, but it definitely ended around 1929, or
> possibly 1933 with the accession of Zahir Shah to the throne
> (considering his father was assassinated). Modernization and
> reform picked up after WWII, and peaked in the 60s. Most of the
> pictures of cute Afghan girls in western clothes going to work and
> school, as well as most of the infrastructure, date from this
> period. The King was overthrown in 1973, by his cousin, and the
> Civil War started in 1991, so you might be right about the
> invasion being an Unraveling war. If so, the withdrawal of
> American troops next year might be the end of the Crisis era. Or
> possibly the toppling of the GIRoA shortly thereafter. We'll see.
> This would actually fit, as it means that their next 2T will begin
> shortly after the next global (West plus South and East Asia)
> crisis period in the 2020s.
> If so, the Hippy trail might be reopened by the 2040s, when our
> next 2T starts. Get your bus tickets now, before the Chinese New
> Boomers do.
> Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to dig into the 19th century
> for a bit.
> EDIT Tentative: Yaqub Khan (1879) as Jimmy Carter and Abdur Rahman
> ("The Iron Emir" 1880-1901) as Ronald Reagan.
failed wars and cute girls, as well as student riots, always seem to
highlight Awakening eras. However, the Crisis era ended in 1996 with
the climax of the civil war, and today Afghanistan is about one year
into an Awakening era. However, the analysis is severely complicated
by the fact that the Pashtuns cross the boundary into Pakistan, which
is in a full-fledged crisis era, and so you have a situation where the
same identity group (the Pashtuns) are in two different eras in
adjoining locations. From the point of view of generational theory,
this is a really interesting situation to watch.
One thing that I wrote about several years ago that I found
absolutely fascinating is that Afghan jihadists are the world's
worst suicide bombers, because they're willing to blow themselves
up if forced to by their al-Qaeda masters, but they're not willing
to blow anyone else up:
** Growing Sunni-Shia cyberwar in Mideast defeats Ahmadinejad's agenda> "An analysis of the attacks carried out in the last two years
> reveals a curious fact. In 43% of the bombings conducted last year
> and in 26 of the 57 bombings traced in this study up to June 15,
> the only death caused by the bombing was that of the bomber
> himself. Astoundingly, approximately 90 suicide bombers in this
> two year period succeeded in killing only themselves. This number
> exceeds 100 when you factor in those who succeeded in killing only
> one person in addition to themselves. There was one period in the
> spring of 2006 (February 20 to June 21) when a stunning 26 of the
> 36 suicide bombers in Afghanistan (72%) only killed themselves.
> This puts the kill average for Afghan suicide bombers far below
> that of suicide bombers in other theaters of action in the area
> (Israel, Chechnya, Iraq and the Kurdish areas of Turkey). Such
> unusual bomber-to-victim death statistics are, of course,
> heartening for both coalition troops—who have described the Afghan
> suicide bombers as "amateurs"—and the Afghan people—who are
> usually the victims of the clumsy bombings.
> These statistics also represent a uniquely Afghan phenomenon that
> warrants investigation."
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...22.htm#e081222
So the Taliban has had to import suicide bombers from Pakistan. This
shows how war-averse people are in a generational Recovery Era (First
Turning). This was similarly true in Awakening-era Iraq, since
Al-Qaeda in Iraq terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was forced to
import suicide bombers from Saudi Arabia and Jordan, since Iraqi
parents refused to allow their children to be suicide bombers.
Thanks for the analysis.
Thank you. That's just my eyeballing wikipedia during class. I wouldn't feel comfortable putting my name next to it without looking at actual birth/death rates, crime statistics, etc.
I also really question whether you can call Afghanistan's crisis over after just 5 years. After all, the Taliban regime fell after only five years, and never had full control of the country. They've been occupied by a foreign power(s) ever since. It would be worthwhile to see what happens after the US leaves. It would also put them way out of sync with their close kin in Pakistan, who are, if anything, at the beginning of their crisis period. For the Afghans to have progressed all the way to an Awakening seems a bit off. It might be worthwhile to wait a few more years and see what their government looks like post-Occupation. If I'm right, they probably won't end up strung up on lampposts like the last foreign collaborators.
To go back to an earlier point, where you mentioned how Russia never seemed to reach the point of "individual human life having no value", defining a 4T. Instead, if you consider the sky rocketing substance abuse, prostitution, separatism, gang warfare, and mortality rates along with plummeting birth rates and economic output during the 90s, Russia might instead be an example of how a country can "fail" a fourth turning. Rather than rallying around a cause (Regeneracy) and pushing forward to a final victory over an external or internal enemy, they instead embraced a 3T vision of West modernization (consumerism, individualism, "shock therapy") and accelerated their decay until they bottomed out in the late 90s. What to watch for in this case, would be their moving into a 2T over the next few years. The days of Putinism and internal sobernost, but authoritarianism and rampant non "European" immigration, might be the good/bad old days for their 21st century saeculum, as the "50s" were for ours. Considering the extent to which Westernizing liberals like Navalny pair their liberalizing rhetoric with xenophobic Muslim bashing, this sort of thing might be what defines their new values battle, particularly as Muslim populations increase and Putin pursues his "Eurasianist" policies.
It would also fit a pattern of "core" states/regions (Western Europe, US, India, East Asia) succumbing to crisis about one turning after their respective peripheries. The Mexican Revolution, October Revolution, fall of the Ottoman Empire/Treaty of Lausannes, and collapse of the Qajar dynasty all happened around the WWI timeframe, while the saeculum didn't end for the "core" until the aftermath of WWII. Considering that the beginning of the last India (Pakistan) saeculum began with the end of the Sepoy Mutiny (1857) and ended with independence and Partition (1947)*, while the Afghan's began in 1842 and seemed to end in 1933, it would fit the pattern as well. Just food for thought.
*You can quibble over where you want to put the dates to within a few years. The East India Company wasn't dissolved and the Raj began until 1858, while India didn't become a Republic till 1950. But it is within that general timeframe.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 09-30-2013 at 07:37 PM.
1-Oct-13 World View - Venezuela blames disastrous economy on U.S. economic 'sabotage'
*** 1-Oct-13 World View -- Venezuela blames disastrous economy on U.S. economic 'sabotage'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Terrorist attack in northwest Pakistan 3rd Sunday in a row
- Venezuela blames disastrous economy on U.S. economic 'sabotage'
I know that this is hard to believe, but there's actually been news in
other places around the world besides Washington.
****
**** Terrorist attack in northwest Pakistan 3rd Sunday in a row
****
The historic Qissa Khwani bazaar marketplace in Peshawar, Pakistan, on a 'normal' day
Two car bombs exploded in the historic Qissa Khwani bazaar marketplace
in Peshawar, Pakistan, on Sunday, killing at least 42 people. A two
story building collapsed, and at least 50 shops were damaged or
completely destroyed.
This is the third Sunday in a row where a major terrorist attack has
occurred in or around Peshawar -- an attack killed three army officers
on September 15 in Upper Dir, just north of Peshawar, and a major
attack on a Christian Church in Peshawar on September 22 killed 84.
In addition, on Friday, bomb blew up a bus carrying government
employees on the edge of Peshawar, killing 18 people.
This would appear to be the final nail in the coffin of the plan by
the new prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to negotiate with
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistani Taliban) to end
terrorist attacks in Pakistan. As soon as the peace talks were
proposed, the TTP immediately started to impose conditions: TTP
prisoners must be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from
the tribal areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the
government must agree to impose Sharia law on the country. And then
the TTP stepped up its terror attacks. So the TTP is humiliating the
Pakistan government with promises of peace talks in the same way that
Russia and Syria are humiliating the American government. Daily Times (Pakistan) and LA Times
****
**** Venezuela blames disastrous economy on U.S. economic 'sabotage'
****
As we wrote last week, Venezuela's economy is approaching full-scale
hyperinflation, with the inflation rate at 45.4%, thanks to the
extravagant spending and vote-buying by the late president, Hugo
Chávez. (See "26-Sep-13 World View -- Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation"
)
The country is plagued by shortages of everything from milk and
cooking oil to toothpaste and toilet paper, and now Chávez's Socialist
successor, Nicolás Maduro, has decided to blame the United States.
According to Maduro in a televised speech to the nation:
<QUOTE>"We detected a group of U.S. embassy officials
dedicated to meeting the far-right and to financing and
encouraging acts of sabotage against the electrical system and
Venezuela's economy.
I have the proof here in my hands. ... Yankees go home! Get out of
Venezuela! Get out of here! I don't care what actions the
government of Barack Obama takes.
I'm not going to allow any action that stirs violence in this
country."<END QUOTE>
There's no U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, so Maduro has expelled
America's chargé d'affaires in Venezuela, along with two diplomats.
Apparently, not everyone in Venezuela agrees with Maduro. Opposition
leader Henrique Capriles called Maduro's speech a "joke alert," and
said, "It's just smoke to cover up that they can't manage the
country!" Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, Nicolas Maduro,
Peshawar, Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban
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Britain had the Crimean War perhaps a bit early for a Crisis Era -- and the nasty Sepoy Rebellion in India -- in the 1850s.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
"Fifth turning?"
A country can go through a Crisis Era without being pulled into the Crisis in full. Portugal, Sweden, and Switzerland seem to have missed the full Crisis of World War II that engulfed most of the rest of Europe. (The Spanish Civil War was a Crisis for Spain, in case you were looking for an exception there). But I can just imagine how tense the Swedes and Swiss were about WWII raging just across a border.
Even if there is no direct involvement in the Crisis, a country can endure the tension of one nearby. So if a country like the Netherlands had this pattern:
3T >> Great Depression and cataclysmic war >> 1T
it more likely went this way for Sweden:
3T >> Great Depression and evasion of a cataclysmic war >> 1T
The generational constellation for a 1T after a weak, muted, or evaded Crisis is practically identical to that of a 1T following a cataclysmic war.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
So how will the Millenials turn out if this 4T plays out out as weak or muted?
Maybe a Swede or Swiss could tell us. For some reason, Swedish and Swiss history draw little attention.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
In the last 4T era, Sweden entered the crisis at about the same tiem as the reswt of Europe, but exited the crisis early. They were the only country to apply Keynesian economics full-bore early in the depression era and without going to war. So the Swedish economy was fully recovered before the war got started in earnest. As a neutral, they avoided the devastaion and did some business with both sides. Because the kingdom had recovered but had no war expeses, Sweden became a supplier of non-lethal goods for much of the continent.
So, I wouldn't use Sweden as guide for that period. It's a bit unique.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
