The answer is that PBrower is incapable of going long without going into lengthy diatribes on WWII, ACW, and/or "American Fascism". And where you introduce one of those topics, he'll be there in short order to complete the conversation with the rest of them.

*** 5-Oct-13 World View -- Greece's radical-left politician Alexis Tspiras gains international prominence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's radical-left politician Alexis Tspiras gains international prominence
• Pro-Morsi demonstrators clash with Egypt's police, with 4 killed

****
**** Greece's radical-left politician Alexis Tspiras gains international prominence
****


Greece's radical-left leader Alexis Tspiras (AFP)

With the radical right Golden Dawn party under attack in Greece from
arrests of its leadership, Alexis Tspiras , the leader of Greece's
radical left party Syriza, is gaining increasing prominence, not only
in Greece, but throughout Europe. In Greece, Tspiras was a constant
opponent of acceding to the harsh austerity demands of the "Troika" of
organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
-- in exchange for the bailout money. Now he's the darling of the
communists and socialists across Europe in their fight against alleged
nepotism and cronyism in the Troika organizations. Tspiras has been
spending time making contacts in Brussels, and next year he's expected
to run for the European Parliament or for president of
Europe. Le Monde (Paris) / (Trans)

****
**** Pro-Morsi demonstrators clash with Egypt's police, with 4 killed
****

Loyalists of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and deposed president Mohamed
Morsi clashed with security forces and local residents on Friday, in
the first major confrontation in the seven weeks since the army and
police killed hundreds of Morsi supporters. Four people were killed,
and another 23 were injured. The pro-Morsi protests were illegal,
since the Muslim Brotherhood itself was banned following the ouster of
Morsi on July 3. Since Morsi was ousted, the economy has worsened
significantly, and attacks by militant groups based in Egypt's Sinai
region has risen sharply. Fears are growing that an al-Qaeda linked
Islamist insurgency will take hold beyond the Sinai, which borders
Israel and the Gaza Strip. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tspiras,
Greece, Troika, EC, ECB, IMF, Golden Dawn

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*** 6-Oct-13 World View -- Two U.S. military strikes target Libya and Somalia jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. military captures jihadist leader al-Libi in Tripoli, Libya
• U.S. Navy Seals strike Somalia jihadists related to Kenya attack
• Iran's politics in turmoil, pitting 'heroic flexibility' versus 'Death to America!'

****
**** U.S. military captures jihadist leader al-Libi in Tripoli, Libya
****


More than 220 people died in the 1998 embassy attack in Kenya and Tanzania (AFP)

U.S. officials are saying that jihadist leader Abu Anas al-Libi was
captured in Tripoli, Libya, by U.S. military special operations forces
on Saturday, apparently grabbed as he was leaving his home. There
were no casualties.

The operation was conducted with the knowledge of the government of
Libya, according to U.S. officials. But there is still concern about
the possibility of revenge attacks as word spreads about the capture
of al-Libi. Last week, Libyans attacked Russia's embassy in Tripoli,
forcing all diplomats to be evacuated and returned to Russia. And
last year, terrorists attacked the American embassy in Benghazi,
killing the U.S. Ambassador and three other diplomats.

Al-Libi is alleged to have been the mastermind for the bombing of the
American embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya, on
August 7, 1998. He's been indicted in the U.S., and has been on the
FBI's most wanted list. He's expected to be brought back to New York
City for trial, which should be quite a show. CNN

****
**** U.S. Navy Seals strike Somalia jihadists related to Kenya attack
****

U.S. Navy Seals conducted a raid of the al-Shabaab jihadist group in
Somalia early Saturday morning. The raid was conducted with soldiers
rather than using drone strikes, in the hope that some "high-profile
targets" could be captured and brought to trial. However, the
American forces were forced to withdraw in the face of heavy fire.
It's believed that one al-Shabaab leader was killed. There were
no U.S. casualties.

The al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab terrorist group has received increased
international attention and prominence ever since last month's
horrific three-day attack on the Westlake Mall in Nairobi, Kenya.
It's recognized that the attack was extremely well-planned and
executed, indicating a degree of high sophistication that was
previously not recognized in al-Shabaab. Furthermore, two of the
Westlake Mall terrorists were American cities, from a Somali community
in Minneapolis. A number of Somalis are known to have gone to Somalia
for terrorist training, and returned to the United States, where they
can enter freely because they're American citizens. (See "23-Sep-13 World View -- Minnesota link to Kenya shopping mall attack raises U.S. fears"
) This is
raising concerns about the same of shopping malls and other soft
targets in the United States. AP and Fox News

****
**** Iran's politics in turmoil, pitting 'heroic flexibility' versus 'Death to America!'
****

The United Nations 'charm offensive' by Iran's new president Hassan
Rouhani continues to generate a great deal of controversy within Iran.
The charm offensive was triggered by a call from Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei to adopt a strategy of "Heroic
Flexibility" with respect to America and the West. This phrase has a
great deal of historic significance, as it refers to the act of a
Muslim hero who reversed his clan's opposition to the message of the
prophet Mohamed in the 7th century. (See "21-Sep-13 World View -- Does Iran's 'Heroic Flexibility' signal a real policy change?"
)

Rouhani was criticized in the West for 'snubbing' president Barack
Obama's invitations to meet at the United Nations -- and there were
five such invitations, according to news reports. However, any such
meeting would have generated enormous controversy in Tehran.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC) official, Mohammad
Hossein Saffar Harandi, on Friday described the trip to a Tehran
audience:

<QUOTE>"This is a situation in which our President [Rouhani]
went to the UN to solve problems with all options open from the
Supreme Leader and a framework of red lines. The American
Secretary of State, in opposition to the commitments and
statements he made, did not recognize Iran’s right to enrich
uranium, said that none of the officials had agreed on Iran’s
right to enrichment and said that no changes had taken shape in
this area when he spoke to news agencies and the
media."<END QUOTE>

At this point, the audience started chanting "Death to America!",
causing Harandi to rebuke the audience for interrupting him, but then
he added:

<QUOTE>"This anger is due to the past memories of these
people, and this can be our message. Of course the chant of Death
to America has been and will be reinforced over time, because the
people have daggers of Americans in the chest, back, and throat of
their children. These past memories are added to their treacherous
designs [hidden] behind their diplomatic front. Behind the
apparent friendliness, their hostility continues."<END QUOTE>

To put all this in perspective, Iran is in a generational Awakening
era, one generation past Iran's last generational crisis war, the
Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed
in 1988.

America's last generational Awakening era occurred in the 1960s-70s,
one generation past the end of World War II. I recall that one
commentator at the time characterized America's relationship with the
Soviet Union as follows: "The liberals blame the conservatives for
wanting to fight a war against the Soviets, while the conservatives
blame the liberals for wanting to turn the entire government over to
the control of Moscow." These differences were characterized at the
time as a "generation gap," pitting the conservative survivor
generations of World War II against the liberal younger generation of
Boomers that had grown up after the war.

Iran is going through exactly the same kind of generation gap today.
The political faction led by the Islamic Revolution survivors believe
that the only way that Iran can survive is to maintain their
revolutionary ideals, one of which is constant opposition to the Great
Satan and the west. The younger generation almost always wins these
battles since, after all, the older generation dies off first.
Khamanei's call for "heroic flexibility" and Rouhani's "charm
offensive" are part of the Awakening era generational transition going
on in Iran today. But the conflict is far from over, and there is
little chance of a major dénouement aligning Iran with the West in the
near future.

The other important fact about this is that this transition is
absolutely unaffected by anything the West does. Iran is now like a
teenage girl who's worried about pimples and whether to have sex with
her boyfriend, and couldn't care less what some preacher down the
street is saying to them. Last week's ten minute phone call between
president Barack Obama and Rouhani, which was the subject of so much
idolatrous fawning by the press, had no effect in Iran except to
generate additional condemnation by the hardliners against Rouhani,
and force Khamanei to pull back from his call for heroic
flexibility. AEI Iran Tracker and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Abu Anas al-Libi,
Benghazi, Salaam, Tanzania, Nairobi, Kenya,
Somalia, al-Shabaab, Westlake Mall, Minneapolis

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*** 7-Oct-13 World View -- With Hajj a week away, Saudi is hit with six new deadly MERS cases

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Lampedusa disaster forces Europe's immigrant dilemma into headlines
• Libya demands a 'clarification' for the 'kidnapping' of al-Libi
• With Hajj a week away, Saudi is hit with six new deadly MERS cases

****
**** Lampedusa disaster forces Europe's immigrant dilemma into headlines
****


Migrant routes from North Africa (BBC)

Divers are still recovering hundreds of bodies of the 500 migrants in
a boat that sank on Thursday before reaching Italy's Lampedusa Island
from northern Africa. Divers have described nightmarish scenes under
water: bodies trapped in the wreckage, locked in a final embrace or
lying on the seabed covered in sand. Survivors have told a gruesome
story: When the boat's engine failed, the captain burned a T-shirt to
attract the attention of Italian coast guards near the short. When
the T-shirt burned his hand, he dropped it, setting the boat on fire,
causing it to capsize.

So far this year, over 30,000 migrants reached Italy on boats from
North Africa, most of them fleeing war in Syria or Somalia, or threats
of political imprisonment in Eritrea. Lampedusa has a population of
6,000 and is frequently overwhelmed by the 3,000 or so migrants that
arrive there every month, hoping to head north to Germany or the
UK. Italy is asking for help from the rest of Europe to cope
with the flow of migrants.

Illegal immigration has been a major political issue in Greece, which
has received thousands of immigrants flowing from the land border with
Turkey or across the Aegean sea. The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn political
party had been gaining popularity with a policy of deporting anyone
who isn't an ethnic Greek, even legal citizens, until recently when
the government declared that it was criminal organization. BBC and Reuters

****
**** Libya demands a 'clarification' for the 'kidnapping' of al-Libi
****

On Saturday, unnamed Administration officials were saying that Libya
had been informed that U.S. special forces were going to snatch up Abu
Anas al-Libi in Tripoli. He's been on the FBI most wanted list since
the 1990s with a $5 million reward, and has been indicted in in a New
York City court on charges of aiding in the bombing of the bombing of
the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998. He's now being
held for questioning "outside of Libya," presumably on a Navy ship.

But on Sunday, Libya's government said it asked the U.S. for
"clarifications" about what it called the "kidnapping," underlining
that its citizens should be tried in Libyan courts if accused of a
crime. It said it hoped its "strategic partnership" with Washington
would not be damaged by the incident. It's thought that the U.S. in
fact didn't warn the Libyan government in advance, for fear that they
would tip off al-Libi. AP

****
**** With Hajj a week away, Saudi is hit with six new deadly MERS cases
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced six more cases of
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi
Arabia, raising the global count to 136 cases with 58 deaths. There
is growing concern about a possible pandemic that might begin when
millions of Muslims from around the world arrive in Mecca, Saudi
Arabia, for the Hajj, their once in a lifetime pilgrimage. The Hajj
will take place next week, October 13-18, 2013. Saudi officials are
advising religious pilgrims to wear masks in crowded places, for their
own protection and the protection of others. CIDRAP/U of Minn and Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Lampedusa, North Africa,
Syria, Somalia, Eritrea, Greece, Turkey, Aegean Sea,
Libya, Abu Anas al-Libi,
Saudi Arabia, Hajj,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV

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The United States has a practice of kidnapping or killing terrorists who think that they are in safe havens. The problem is that any terrorist wanted for murder has no safe haven. If Abbotabad isn't safe, then no place even in the USA is safe for a terrorist. What we can do... so can the Chinese and the Russians.

*** 8-Oct-13 World View -- Russia's divine sense of exceptionalism

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suicide bombers target Egypt's police after massive street riots on Sunday
• Turkey builds a wall along the border with Syria
• Russia's divine sense of exceptionalism

****
**** Suicide bombers target Egypt's police after massive street riots on Sunday
****


Army checkpoint in Sinai in mid-July (Reuters)

Ever since Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi was deposed in an army coup
on July 3, the Egyptian people have hoped that the level of violence
would settle down, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Gunmen
and suicide bombers made multiple attacks on Egypt's security forces
on Monday, including a gun attack that killed six soldiers in
Ismailia, a Suez Canal city, and a bombing at security headquarters in
southern Sinai kill four people, on the other side of the Suez Canal.
It comes after clashes on Sunday between security forces and armed
civilians, mostly Morsi supporters, resulted in the killing of 51
people. Al-Jazeera and AFP

****
**** Turkey builds a wall along the border with Syria
****

Turkey has criticized Greece closing the border with Turkey,
forcing thousands of would-be immigrants
wanting in Turkey wanting to enter Greece to risk being smuggled
across the Aegean Sea. And America's fence on the border with Mexico
has been mired in controversy. So it's of interest that Turkey is
building a two-meter high wall topped with barbed wire fencing along
its border with Syria. The wall is expected to span just a fraction
of Turkey's 560 mile border with Syria, but after 500,000 Syrian
refugees have already crossed over into Turkey since the start of the
Syrian civil war, Turkey feels the need to do something. However,
Turkey says that it will maintain its "open door" policy to those
fleeing the fighting in Syria.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters

****
**** Russia's divine sense of exceptionalism
****

Last month, the NY Times published an op-ed written by Russia's
president Vladimir Putin in which he criticized the concept of
"American exceptionalism" as being dangerous in today's world. But,
in fact, it's Russia that has a sense of not just exceptionalism, but
exceptionalism derived from God. Recently, President Obama said that
America was exceptional because it is not indifferent to human
suffering. But that's quite different from Russia's glorification of
the quasi-divine status of the Russian state. It's holding this view
that let's him do things like invade Georgia, as he did in 2008, and
annex two of Georgia's provinces.

Russia's sense of exceptionalism arose after the fall of
Constantinople to the Muslim Ottomans in 1453. Constantinople
(today's Istanbul) had been the Greek Orthodox Christian successor to
Rome after the fall of the Roman Empire. When Constantinople fell,
leaders of Russia took on the burden of leading the Christian world as
the "third Rome." (In fact, the world "Czar" or "Tsar" is derived
from the word "Caesar.") Russia took on the role of the defender of
Jerusalem almost fanatically, and that was a prime motivation for
Russia's disastrous involvement in the Crimean War, its generational
crisis war in the 1850s.

Its next crisis war, the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, there was a
harsh adverse reaction to the Crimean War, and not only was the
Tsarist state destroyed, but the Russian Orthodox Church itself was
almost destroyed, as Russia became an "atheist" Communist country.
The Church began to revive in the 1940s with World War II, which was
an Awakening era war for the Russians, albeit a particularly brutal
one. Since the 1990s, Russian leaders, led by Putin, have sought to
revive the special role of the Russian Orthodox Church, allowing the
combination of Russia and the Church to return to the state of
"exceptionalism" that, in Putin's words, might be dangerous in today's
world. Foreign Policy Research Institute

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Ismailia,
Suez Canal, Sinai, Turkey, Syria, Greece, Aegean Sea,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, fall of Constantinople,
Exceptionalism, Crimean War, Bolshevik Revolution,
Russian Orthodox Church

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*** 9-Oct-13 World View -- U.S. to cut off military aid to Egypt in wake of coup

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Afghan president Karzai slams Nato for fighting the Taliban
• U.S. to cut off military aid to Egypt in wake of coup
• North Korea puts its military on high alert

****
**** Afghan president Karzai slams Nato for fighting the Taliban
****


Hamid Karzai on Monday (BBC)

Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai has indicated that Nato's
12-year-old war was a failure. In an interview, Karzai said:

<QUOTE>"On the security front the entire Nato exercise was
one that caused Afghanistan a lot of suffering, a lot of loss of
life, and no gains because the country is not
secure.

They [the Taliban] are Afghans. Where the Afghan president, the
Afghan government can appoint the Taliban to a government job they
are welcome. But where it's the Afghan people appointing people
through elections to state organs then the Taliban should come and
participate in elections.

The return of the Taliban will not undermine progress. This
country needs to have peace. I am willing to stand for anything
that will bring peace to Afghanistan and through that to promote
the cause of the Afghan women better."<END QUOTE>

So, the implication is that the 12-year effort to eject the Taliban
after 9/11/2001 was a waste. This isn't a surprising conclusion. As
I've been writing for years, when President Obama announced a "surge"
into Afghanistan, hoping to duplicate the success of the president
George Bush's "surge" into Iraq, there was no chance that the
Afghanistan "surge" would succeed, based on generational reasons, and
on the relationship of the Afghan Pashtun to the Pakistan Pashtun.
(See "29-Sep-13 World View -- Violence in Afghanistan surges in September"
) And it was just
two months ago that Secretary of State John Kerry announced, with
great pomp and fanfare, an agreement with the Taliban to hold peace
talks, but the talks collapsed in one day
after they were announced.

Karzai and Obama have never gotten along very well anyway, and in 2009
Obama described Karzai as an unreliable and ineffective partner.
Still, Karzai's remarks come at a crucial time in negotiations over
how many troops the U.S. will leave behind for training and such,
after the Nato withdrawal in 2014. Karzai's outburst appears to make
the "zero option" more likely -- that zero troops will be left
behind. BBC and
VOA

****
**** U.S. to cut off military aid to Egypt in wake of coup
****

Reports indicate that the U.S. will announced on Wednesday a decision
to cut off military aid to Egypt. Egypt currently receives $1.5
billion in US aid annually, $1.3 billion of which is designated for
the military. The aid includes military equipment, including
F-16s.

Ever since the July 3 army coup ousting Egypt's democratically elected
president, Mohamed Morsi, the Obama administration has carefully
avoided using the word "coup," since the U.S. has a strict law that
aid will be terminated to any country where the army stages a coup
against a democratically elected leader. (See
"4-Jul-13 World View -- Egypt's army deposes Morsi in a non-coup coup" )
The administration has repeatedly refused
to declare whether a "coup" occurred on July 3, but this
report seems to indicate that the administration has finally
made up its mind.

Whatever the symbolism of cutting off $1.5 billion in annual aid,
there will be little practical effect. The reason is that, with
Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood out of government, Egypt has been promised
$12 billion in aid from Gulf Arab states that don't like or trust the
Muslim Brotherhood -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and
Kuwait -- and reports indicate that the money has been pouring in.

The cutoff of aid has the potential of changing the balance of power
in the Mideast. Ever since Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David
peace agreement in 1979, America has been providing billions in aid to
both Israel and Egypt. With the cutoff of aid, Egypt's government may
be under pressure to repudiate the treaty.

Relations between the U.S. and Egypt have been deteriorating steadily,
every since President Obama's "apology tour" speech in Cairo in 2009,
where he raised everyone's hopes, and where he made promises that
could never be kept, with the result that America's popularity in
Egypt today is at its lowest point in decades. When the Arab Spring
began, President Obama called for Hosni Mubarak to step down,
humiliating Mubarak and infuriating King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. In
recent months, President Obama has repeatedly damaged American
credibility with incompetent flip-flops with respect to the conflict
in Syria, endorsement of an Afghanistan peace process that collapsed
in 24 hours, and endorsement of a new Mideast "peace process" that's
considered a joke in the Mideast. Now, the new report that President
Obama is going to end aid to Egypt is going to convince anyone who
isn't already convinced that President Obama and Secretary of State
Kerry don't have the vaguest clue what they're doing, or what they're
going to do next. CNN

****
**** North Korea puts its military on high alert
****

North Korea has put its military forces on high alert, after
U.S. warships reached South Korea in preparation for scheduled
military exercises with South Korea and Japan. According to
a statement by North Korea's official news agency, which
refers to North Korea as the DPRK and to South Korea as
America's puppet:

<QUOTE>"That the U.S. and its south Korean puppet
trigger-happy forces seek the joint military exercises with a
nuclear carrier involved is the revelation of the bellicose
attempt to escalate the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the
extreme pitch of tension, prevent the dialogue and peace from
progressing and attain the ambition for invading the DPRK by
openly threatening it with nukes.

The South Korean puppet regime plans to deploy the nuclear carrier
in waters off south Korea in collusion with the U.S. in a futile
bid to frighten the DPRK.

The DPRK will never be browbeaten by it or any other things more
powerful than it.

It has all means and forces to cope with any adventurous nuclear
war scenarios of the U.S. and the puppet forces. It is fully ready
to show its mettle to the bellicose forces running amuck by
counting on the nuclear carrier.

The regime would be well advised to be well aware that it is fated
to meet the complete ruin which can never be recovered by the
nuclear carrier and anything else more powerful than it if it
continues pursuing reckless military provocations against the
DPRK, backed by its American master."<END QUOTE>

Evidence is growing that North Korea is restarting its nuclear
reactors. TIME and KCNA (Pyongyang)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai,
Nato, Taliban, John Kerry, Iraq,
Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed Morsi,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Israel,
King Abdullah, North Korea

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*** 10-Oct-13 World View -- Russia plans intensive surveillance of visitors to Sochi Olympics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia plans intensive surveillance of visitors to Sochi Olympics
• EU officials jeered and heckled on visit to Lampedusa Island
• Congressmen forced to reuse gym towels

****
**** Russia plans intensive surveillance of visitors to Sochi Olympics
****


Sochi 2014 Olympics site construction (AFP)

Russia is planning near total surveillance of all visitors to the
Winter Olympics, to be held February 7-23, 2014, in Sochi, Russia, as
well as athletes and journalists. The good news is that Russia will
provide all visitors with free, fast internet services that will be a
pleasure to use, provided that you don't mind that each and every
digital communication passing through the city's telephone and
internet services will be intercepted.

In addition, Russia is doing everything possible to make sure that
there are no protests in Sochi, and that there isn't even any negative
media coverage. Russia is barring journalists from visiting Sochi if
they've written things in the past critical of Russia's government.

Russia's ban on public protests is mainly targeting one category of
protesters -- the Circassians. Russia has admitted that when they
were awarded the rights to the 2014 Winter Olympics in the beautiful
Black Sea resort of Sochi, they underestimated a very important issue:
the ethnic Circassians. As I first reported in
"30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics" , the region
around Sochi used to be the home of ethnic Circassians. But they were
slaughtered and driven out of Sochi by the Russians in a generational
crisis war that climaxed in a massive genocidal battle in 1864. And
that makes 2014 the 150th anniversary of that climactic battle. In
the three years since I first reported on it, the Circassian situation
has gone from an obscure little known problem to a major issue facing
the 2014 Olympics.

Russia is taking offense at anyone who refers to the 1864 battle as a
Circassian genocide, but that didn't stop Georgia's president Mikheil
Saakashvili, who has very little love for Russia or for Russia's
president Vladimir Putin, after the latter led a Russian invasion of
Georgia in 2008, annexing two of Georgia's provinces. Last month,
Saakashvili gave a speech to the United Nations General Assembly. In
that speech, he spoke of how Russia was oppressing nations that wanted
to join the European Union. He said that "the Georgian nation has
suffered an embargo, a war, an invasion, and an occupation – all since
2006." He went through a list of historical outrages, including the
following:

<QUOTE>"And this is why I have launched several projects
during my Presidency reinforcing the people-to-people contacts
between North and South Caucasus, projects focusing mostly on
education and on University exchanges.

That’s why the Georgian Parliament has recognized [in May, 2011]
genocide of Circassian people – one of the most unknown and tragic
pages of history of the world, when the whole nation was wiped out
because their land was needed by the Russian Empire.

We need to build on those small efforts. We need to prepare for
the times when the Empire collapses. So that its legacy of hatred
is swiftly overcome."<END QUOTE>

The "Empire" whose collapse he's predicting is the Russian Empire.
But more significant is his statement that Georgia's Parliament
recognized the genocide of the Circassian people in 1864. The Russian
delegation staged a walkout during Saakashvili's speech.

The Circassian situation is just one of many potential security
problems that Russia faces in Sochi, at the edge of the volatile North
Caucasus. So if you plan to visit the Sochi Olympics, don't be
surprised to find that every possible form of hyper-security is being
imposed. CS Monitor and Jamestown and Civil (Georgia)

****
**** EU officials jeered and heckled on visit to Lampedusa Island
****

Divers are still recovering bodies from the horrendous accident last
Thursday in a boat carrying 500 migrants from North Africa to
Lampedusa Island, as we reported recently.
European Commission President José Manuel Barroso visited
Lampedusa for a photo op on Wednesday, where he expected to be cheered
by the local residents. Instead, dozens of people hurled abuse, with
insults like "disgrace" and "killers." It seems that EU politicians
have made frequent promises on the subject of illegal immigration to
people not only in Italy, but also in Greece and Spain, and have never
followed through on any of those promises. Deutsche-Welle

****
**** Congressmen forced to reuse gym towels
****

Congressmen who use the Capitol gym are faced with a major new
hardship: Because of the government shutdown, they have to reuse their
towels. Of course, other parks and buildings in Washington are shut
down (except those needed by President Obama's political friends), but
the Capitol gym is being kept open because Congressmen are very
special and deserve such a privilege. It's true that having to reuse
their towels is a hardship that these public servants should not be
forced to bear, but at least they know that they're getting a special
Obamacare subsidy, so that they won't have to pay the same
astronomical Obamacare health insurance rates that everyone else is
going to have to pay. The Hill


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Sochi Olympics, Circassians,
Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, Vladimir Putin,
Lampedusa, EU, José Manuel Barroso, Italy

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*** 11-Oct-13 World View -- Libya's prime minister is kidnapped in broad daylight, then freed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Libya's prime minister is kidnapped in broad daylight, then freed
• Red Cross warns of bubonic plague epidemic in Madagascar
• France's anti-Muslim anti-immigrant Marine Le Pen surges in polls
• NIST Time Widget broken

****
**** Libya's prime minister is kidnapped in broad daylight, then freed
****


Ali Zeidan (AFP)

In a stunning action by a Libyan militia, Libya's Prime Minister Ali
Zeidan was kidnapped early Thursday morning from his hotel in the
heart of the capital city, Tripoli. Zeidan was freed unhurt several
hours later, apparently because a competing Libya militia charged in
to free him.

It's believed that Thurswday's kidnapping was staged by al-Qaeda
militants in retaliation for alleged Libyan government collusion in
last week's kidnapping by U.S. special forces, in broad daylight, of
Abu Anas al-Libi, who was indicted years ago on charges of aiding in
the bombing of the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998.
( "6-Oct-13 World View -- Two U.S. military strikes target Libya and Somalia jihadists"
)

However, there are other possible reasons for Thursday's kidnapping as
well. Libya's government does not have an army or police force, and
is really nothing more than a confederation of tribal militias who are
responsible for keeping order, but who have their own individual
agendas. One simmering issue is that Zeidan wants the central
government to have control over Libya's oil fields, while some of the
militias want control themselves. In any case, the kidnapping of
Zeidan is considered a sign of how weak Libya's government is,
following the Nato military action in 2011 that brought down Muammar
Gaddafi. BBC and AP and CS Monitor

****
**** Red Cross warns of bubonic plague epidemic in Madagascar
****

Bubonic plague, also called the Black Death when killed half of
Europe's population in the 1300s, has never been eliminated, and in
fact is endemic in many places. It's endemic in the animal population
of Madagascar, and the The International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC) in Geneva and the Pasteur Institute are warning of a possible
epidemic, especially in the crowded, rat-infested prisons, as summer
approaches in this Southern Hemisphere island-nation off the coast of
Africa:

<QUOTE>"If the plague gets into prisons there could be a sort
of atomic explosion of plague within the town. The prison walls
will never prevent the plague from getting out and invading the
rest of the town."<END QUOTE>

Bubonic plague is carried by fleas and fleas are carried by rats.
According to the ICRC, the prisons are infested with rats that are
themselves infested with fleas, and the situation has gotten so bad
that an "atomic explosion" may occur in the town, causing an epidemic
of the Black Death. BBC

****
**** France's anti-Muslim anti-immigrant Marine Le Pen surges in polls
****

France's far-right National Front party is leading the two mainstream
political parties in recent polls. (The term "far right" has
different meanings in Europe and America.) A new poll finds that NP
is leading with 24%, while the center-right UMP part of former
president Nicolas Sarkozy has 22%, and the governing Socialist party
of president François Hollande is at 19%. NP is headed by Marine Le
Pen, who campaigns for curbing immigration and exiting the euro. Le
Pen has styled herself as protecting France against both the "European
Soviet Union" and against Muslim immigration. Europe has been
generally moving to the right on the issues of immigration and
deportation of Muslims. EU Observer

****
**** NIST Time Widget broken
****

In case you're wondering why the "NIST Time Widget" on the Generational Dynamics home page no longer works -- it's because of the government
shutdown. NIST


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Ali Zeidan,
Abu Anas al-Libi, Muammar Gaddafi,
Madagascar, bubonic plague, Black Death,
International Committee of the Red Cross, Pasteur Institute,
France, National Front, Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Sarkozy,
Francois Hollande, NIST

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*** 12-Oct-13 World View -- Israel and Saudi Arabia furious over talk of U.S.-Russia-Iran deal on Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel and Saudi Arabia furious over talk of U.S.-Russia-Iran deal on Syria
• Saudi Arabia and Israel look for solutions
• The Mideast perspective

****
**** Israel and Saudi Arabia furious over talk of U.S.-Russia-Iran deal on Syria
****


President Obama and Saudi King Abdullah in friendlier days

There's been a flurry of "diplomacy peace moves" recently: President
Obama having a phone call with Iran's president Hassan Rouhani;
Secretary of State John Kerry congratulating Russia on having a
positive, cooperative approach to Syria; Kerry saying he's "very
pleased" with Syria's positive, cooperative approach to the chemical
weapons inspectors.

It's hard to know what to make of all this. Russia's president
Vladimir Putin repeatedly shown contempt for President Obama, and it
was just a few weeks ago that Obama snubbed Putin at the G-20 meeting
because Russia is harboring American traitor Edward Snowden. Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad has and continues to be a genocidal murderer
using heavy weapons supplied by Russia to kill huge numbers of
innocent Syrian civilians, and it was just a few weeks ago that
President Obama was talking about "red lines" and threatening military
action because of al-Assad's horrific use of chemical weapons on
civilians on August 21. Kerry's "very pleased" remark came about in
response to a piece of paper listing Syria's chemical weapons, and few
people doubt that al-Assad will keep hidden a percentage of his
chemical weapons from the U.N. inspectors.

So we have an endless series of Obama flip-flops, exuding obeisance to
one foreign leader after another who has nothing but contempt for
America and President Obama. Unfortunately, Obama has no clue what's
going on in the world, has no clue what he's doing, and has no clue
what he's going to do next. As usual, the fawning, sycophantic
mainstream media have nothing but praise for Obama and Kerry, despite
the constantly changing and flip-flopping foreign policy du
jour. Jerusalem Post and Al-Hayat

****
**** Saudi Arabia and Israel look for solutions
****

One group of people who are definitely not fawning and sycophantic are
the leaders of Saudi Arabia, who once considered America to be their
ally. Saudi's leaders are already upset that Obama threw Egypt's
leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus at the start of the Egyptian
revolution. And now, Obama is siding Iran and al-Assad, Shia Muslim
leaders who are responsible for the massacre of many innocent Sunni
Muslims, including many women and children, and for millions of
refugees. Furthermore, Saudi leaders are upset that Obama is siding
with Iran, in view of the latter's activities in funding Shia
insurgencies in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. Finally, Saudi
intelligence has obtained for al-Assad military sources a long list of
chemical weapons and chemical weapons sites that are being withheld
al-Assad from the international inspectors, making the entire
U.S.-Russian deal on inspections a farce.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given up any hope that
President Obama will do anything to prevent Iran from developing
nuclear weapons. Although Israel and America are still close allies,
the personal animosity and distrust between Netanyahu and Obama are
extremely high. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are equally concerned
about the consequences of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, and they
are considering cooperation in facing a nuclear-capable Iran.
Reuters and Debka

****
**** The Mideast perspective
****

To put all the above in perspective, this is a good time to summarize
the numerous generational analyses I've posted in the past:

• It's quite possible that the civil war in Syria will end.
  Russia and al-Assad will take all the credit, but as I've written many
  times, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and this war would
  have fizzled long ago, if it weren't for the fact that al-Assad is a
  genocidal maniac being given an unlimited supply of heavy weapons by
  Russia. Even so, the pressures to end a civil war in a generational
  Awakening era are enormous, and it's possible that some kind of peace
  deal is going to arrive in the next few weeks.
  
• If al-Assad and Russia had stopped pursuing genocidal policies two
  years ago, then the war would have fizzed, and it's possible that
  Syria could return to its pre-war "normal." However, the long delay,
  and the repeated slaughter, torture and massacre of innocent Sunni
  civilians in Syria has electrified the entire region, inflaming the
  Sunni-Shia fault line, and Sunni jihadists places as far away as
  Pakistan, Algeria, and Chechnya have been arriving in Syria to fight
  the al-Assad regime. On top of all those factors, over 2.1 million
  Syrian refugees have poured into neighboring countries, destabilizing
  those economies.
  
• Iran is determined to build a nuclear weapons, but they have no
  intention of using it on Israel. However, they may have plans to use
  it on Saudi Arabia.
  
• When the Clash of Civilizations world war begins, the "allies"
  will be the United States, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Iran,
  Israel, Russia and others, while their opponents will be China,
  Cambodia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the other Sunni states, and
  others.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria,
Russia, John Kerry, Vladimir Putin, Bashar al-Assad,
Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Benjamin Netanyahu

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*** 13-Oct-13 World View -- U.S.-Egypt relationship little affected by aid cutoff

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mediterranean turns into a 'cemetery' as another migrant boat capsizes
• U.S.-Egypt relationship little affected by aid cutoff

****
**** Mediterranean turns into a 'cemetery' as another migrant boat capsizes
****


Survivors arriving in Valletta, the capital of Malta (Getty)

Malta's prime minister Joseph Muscat said on Friday:

<QUOTE>""As things stand we are just building a cemetery
within our Mediterranean sea.

We cannot allow the Mediterranean to become a
cemetery."<END QUOTE>

He was reacting to the news of another ship, packed with hundreds of
migrants, capsizing as it approached Malta. In this case, rescue
vessels from Italy and Malta responded quickly and hundreds of
migrants were pulled from the sea, along with 34 dead bodies. This
follows a much larger incident last week, when hundreds of migrants
died from the sinking of a migrant boat packed with 500 migrants from
Northern Africa. (See "Lampedusa disaster forces Europe's immigrant dilemma into headlines"
.) In the most recent incident, many of the
migrants were white, indicating that they were likely
to be Syrians and Palestinians.

Activists are calling for measures to stop the flow of migrants. Over
30,000 migrants arrived in Italy and Malta so far this year, compared
with 15,000 in all of 2012. According to one official, "Behind these
tragedies, as the dramatic instability of African countries increases,
there are human traffickers who are enriching themselves on the backs
of people who are fleeing war and hunger." BBC and Mirror (London)

****
**** U.S.-Egypt relationship little affected by aid cutoff
****

On Wednesday, the Obama administration announced a partial cutoff of
military aid to Egypt, as required by U.S. law because of the army
coup that ousted a democratically elected leader, Mohamed Morsi. $260
million in cash assistance to the government is being delayed, and
delivery of Apache helicopters, F-16 fighter jets, M1A1 Abrams tank
kits, which are put together in Egyptian factories, and Harpoon
anti-ship missiles will be held up. The cutoff has received some
criticism because the U.S. needs good relations with Egypt for its own
strategic regions. The aid to Egypt's military gives the
U.S. preferential access to the Suez Canal, and also gives the
U.S. intelligence information about the entire Mideast region.

So it's not surprising that the aid cutoff is turning out to be more
symbolic than substantial. The delay in cash assistance will be more
than made up for by cash contributions from Egypt's Arab allies,
including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which are
jointly providing $12 billion in aid. Potentially more significant is
the cutoff of delivery of the heavy weapons. Egypt cannot simply take
Saudi Arabia's money and use it to purchase an F-16, since such sales
are carefully controlled by the U.S. government. However, Egypt
already has large inventories of all of these heavy weapons, and so a
postponed delivery will not matter for a while. If the U.S. REALLY
wanted to cut off aid, they would suspend maintenance and logistic
support. But the Egyptians will still receive spare parts,
maintenance and technical advisers, which is what they really need
from the U.S. Daily News Egypt and AP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mediterranean, Malta, Valletta, Joseph Muscat,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, F-16

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*** 14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Moscow police arrest hundreds after a massive race riot
• Al-Qaeda surges back in Iraq following U.S. withdrawal
• HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster

****
**** Moscow police arrest hundreds after a massive race riot
****


Moscow police detain a man on Sunday (Reuters)

Moscow police arrested more than 380 people on Sunday during a race
riot in which about 1,000 neo-Nazi ethnic Russian nationalists
attacked a vegetable warehouse run by natives of Russia's southern
provinces in the North Caucasus who had migrated to Moscow. This was
the worst race riot in some time between mostly Orthodox Christian
ethnic Russians and mostly Muslim North Caucasians. The riot was
triggered by the knife murder, on Thursday, of an ethnic Russian while
he was out walking with this girlfriend, who later described the
assailant as a Caucasian. Hundreds of police were sent in to bring
the riot under control, but some reports indicate that the police did
nothing to stop the ethnic Russians from looting the warehouse.
Moscow police promised to pay up to one million rubles for information
that would help to identify and find the murder suspect. Russia Today and AFP

****
**** Al-Qaeda surges back in Iraq following U.S. withdrawal
****

Al-Qaeda has come roaring back in Iraq since U.S. troops left in late
2011 and now looks stronger than it has in years. The terror group has
shown it is capable of carrying out mass-casualty attacks several
times a month, driving the death toll in Iraq to the highest level
since 2006. Al-Qaeda's forces have been bolstered by bombing attacks
on Iraqi prisons that have freed more than 500 inmates. The Syrian
war has been a major recruiting tool for al-Qaeda because genocidal
maniac president Bashar al-Assad is using heavy weapons to slaughter
innocent civilians, and Russia is following a disastrous policy of
supplying an unlimited number of heavy weapons to al-Assad. In Iraq,
the pace of terrorist killings has increased substantially every month
since the American withdrawal, with most of the attacks conducted by
al-Qaeda linked terrorists with Shia targets. On Sunday alone, 42
people were killed in a new wave of bombings in most Shia-majority
cities. One intelligence official estimates that al-Qaeda now has at
least 3,000 trained fighters in Iraq alone, including some 100
volunteers awaiting orders to carry out suicide missions. President
George Bush's "surge" into Iraq in 2007 beat back al-Qaeda, and
reduced it to a "few small cells struggling to survive," according to
the Brookings Institution. But now all of that work is coming undone.
AP

****
**** HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster
****

Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in
2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as
a proposal of economic insanity,
because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price
controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy. (See
"5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse" .)

I had expected Obamacare to collapse for purely economic reasons, just
as Nixon's wage-price controls collapsed for economic reasons, despite
the kind of overwhelming support from both Democrats and Republicans
for wage-price controls that is totally absent for Obamacare.
Obamacare is in fact collapsing for purely economic reasons. The
administration has been forced to grant one waiver after another to
labor unions, Congress, and other political allies, it's used the IRS
to target its political opponents, and it was forced to postpone the
"employer mandate" by a year, and probably forever. This is exactly
the kind of thing that Nixon tried to do to save his wage-price
controls, as they spiraled into total disaster and collapse. The only
significant portion of Obamacare still remaining is the "individual
mandate," which is so full of holes and contradictions that it's
unlikely to survive the winter.

But what I hadn't foreseen is that a critical factor in the collapse
of Obamacare may well be the IT systems. President Obama is calling
them "glitches" that will be repaired soon, but many people are
wondering whether they can be repaired. I've suggested that perhaps
the Obamacare IT systems were developed by a group of kids out
of college whose previous experience was to develop a web site as
a homework assignment, and had used this "expertise" in developing
healthcare.gov and other web sites.

An article by Sean Gallagher of Ars Technica confirms that suggestion,
and a lot more. He points out that actual federal employees who do IT
work have been retiring or are close to retirement, and haven't been
replaced, and so the government has been depending on young
programmers working for outside contractors to do the work.
Furthermore, he points out that the federal government uses old,
outdated hardware and operating systems, and that
government-implemented systems, typified by the US Army's Enterprise
Email (EE) program, are shoddy and would never be tolerated in the
commercial world.

I hadn't foreseen all this, but I should have, based on several
personal experiences. The most relevant one is when I was working for
military contractor CACI in 2004-5, which was under contract to
General Dynamics (not to be confused with Generational Dynamics) to
build an internet infrastructure for Air Force bases around the world.
I'd been working on this project for 18 months, and it was due for
completion in four more months. I realized that there were problems,
so I did a quick survey of the other engineers, and discovered that
they all assumed that once the hardware was assembled, the software
would automatically work. It was clear that of the 20-30 engineers on
the project, I was the only one that understood large software
systems, and that the project was headed for disaster. I prepared a
list of problems, and wrote a memo to my management predicting that
project was going to slip at least six months, and asked for
permission to do a complete project evaluation in order to save it. I
had been fired a couple of times previously on other projects for
telling my management that a project was in trouble (even though I was
always right), and so in this memo, I actually begged them not to fire
me.

Well, that didn't help. I can still remember the Gen-X manager from
General Dynamics glaring at me and loudly screaming at me in a meeting
that "This project is going to be SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED IN FOUR
MONTHS." Well, of course I was fired a week later, and of course the
entire project collapsed a year later, a total loss of $10 million of
taxpayer money. I'm still furious about what happened because (a) I
was fired for being the only competent engineer, where none of the
General Dynamics engineers were competent, (b) The incompetent
engineers got to continue working, collecting a salary, and sitting
around writing fatuous memos for another year, and (c) if I'd been
permitted to evaluate the project and redirect it, I could have saved
the project, and the taxpayers' $10 million. But that's the way the
government works, especially since the rise of Generation-X.

So, based on that experience, it's pretty likely that healthcare.gov
has been implemented by incompetent engineers led by bureaucratic
morons who really don't care whether the web site ever works or not
and don't want to listen to anyone who actually is competent, as long
as they continue to collect their enormous salaries.

You might think that's bad enough, Dear Reader, but now the story
is going to get MUCH WORSE.

Last week, there were some reports that the Obama administration had
paid $634 million to contractors to implement healthcare.gov. I
checked out the reports, and it turns out that the $634 million figure
is wrong. The implementation cost was a "mere" $93.7 million.

Are you f--king kidding me????? $93.7 million to build a high volume
web site backed up by a database? And they're BRAGGING about this as
a low cost??? This kind of project in the commercial world would have
cost about $5-10 million, but adjusting for government bureaucracy or
additional technical complications, a figure of $20-25 million might
have been reasonable though very expensive. $93.7 million is high by
several multiples, especially in view of the shoddy results.

So now we can see what must have happened. The Obama administration
poured out tens of millions of dollars to a number of incompetent
contractors with bloated budgets, probably their political pals and
campaign contributors, who employed incompetent young Millennial and
Gen-X engineers and managers to implement healtcare.gov, and you can
see the result, which is similar to the Air Force internet project
that I worked on for General Dynamics before I was fired.

And now the Obama administration is so desperate to save Obamacare
that it will do anything and everything, legal or illegal, credible or
extortionary, constructive or destructive, to save it. It is now
going to spend additional tens of millions of dollars to try to save
healthcare.gov. Let's see what happens. Ars Technica and The Blaze

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Moscow, North Caucasus,
Iraq, al-Qaeda, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
HealthCare.gov, Obamacare, Richard Nixon, wage-price controls,
Sean Gallagher, Ars Technica, CACI, General Dynamics

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster
****
**** HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster
****

Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in 2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as a proposal of economic insanity, because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy. (See "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse" .)

I'm not a big fan of Obamacare, but likening it to Wage and Price Controls is simply wrong. There is no price setting involved and the only whip being used on the insurance industry is old fashioned competition.

I'm not sure this will bring prices into line to the extent they should, but arguing that startup problems doom the progran seems like wishful thinking. I do expect an overhaul in the 3 to 5 year time period, but that will be focused on mandating or at least promoting improvements that have worked well elsewhere. I think killing it is now off the table.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I'm not a big fan of Obamacare, but likening it to Wage and Price Controls is simply wrong. There is no price setting involved and the only whip being used on the insurance industry is old fashioned competition.

I'm not sure this will bring prices into line to the extent they should, but arguing that startup problems doom the progran seems like wishful thinking. I do expect an overhaul in the 3 to 5 year time period, but that will be focused on mandating or at least promoting improvements that have worked well elsewhere. I think killing it is now off the table.

Actually, John Xenakis lives in Massachusetts, which pioneered Romneycare, from which Obamacare is modeled after. John, is Romneycare like wage and price controls?

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Actually, John Xenakis lives in Massachusetts, which pioneered Romneycare, from which Obamacare is modeled after. John, is Romneycare like wage and price controls?

I've always found John's foreign analysis much better than his domestic. I don't necessarliy agree with either, but that's another issue.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I'm not a big fan of Obamacare, but likening it to Wage and Price Controls is simply wrong. There is no price setting involved and the only whip being used on the insurance industry is old fashioned competition.

I'm not sure this will bring prices into line to the extent they should, but arguing that startup problems doom the progran seems like wishful thinking. I do expect an overhaul in the 3 to 5 year time period, but that will be focused on mandating or at least promoting improvements that have worked well elsewhere. I think killing it is now off the table.

I'm no expert on the details of Obamacare, but from the day it was
proposed in 2009, I heard story after story about all the different
ways that prices were going to be controlled. Insurance companies are
limited in profits, hospitals and doctors were restricted in charges,
and so forth. Some of the loudest complainers are labor unions who
are being taxed because they offer "Cadillac" plans. Whether done by
taxes or restricting prices, these are all price controls, as in the
case of Nixon's wage-price controls.

For those of you who are "liberal" and "progressive," you're the ones
who owe the world an explanation, not me.

If you're "liberal" or "progressive," then you have to believe that
Nixon's wage-price controls should have worked. They were
enthusiastically backed by labor unions and other liberals, they were
fully backed by the Nixon administration, and almost everyone thought
they'd work to reduce inflation from 2-3% down to 1% or so.

Instead, they were a disaster, and inflation rocketed to 10%.

If you're liberal or progressive, then you owe me and other people why
that happened. This is a simple non-ideological question.

Wage-price controls were a typical liberal program, attempting to
control the markets through government regulation, and it was a
disaster. Give me and others an explanation of why this typical
liberal program was a disaster.

When you go past your ideology and understand that you have no
explanation why Nixon's wage-price controls were a catastrophe, then
you'll also understand why Obamacare is a catastrophe.

In simple economic terms:

-- If you want health care prices to go down, then you need to
increase the supply of medical services -- doctors, hospitals,
devices, insurance companies, and so forth.

-- The only way to increase the supply is to allow prices to find
their own levels, which means no price controls.

-- Instead, Obamacare seeks to control prices, which is going to
DECREASE the supply of medical services.

-- This means that the prices of medical services are going to
explode.

That's exactly what's happening today.

Once again, forget your ideology for a moment, and go back and check
out what happened under Nixon's wage-price controls, and you'll see
the same thing happening today.

One bit of irony: Labor unions were the loudest advocates of
wage-price controls, and they were the loudest complainers when the
controls failed. Today, labor unions were the loudest advocates of
Obamacare, and today they're the loudest complainers. Go figure.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Actually, John Xenakis lives in Massachusetts, which pioneered Romneycare, from which Obamacare is modeled after. John, is Romneycare like wage and price controls?

I don't really know anything about the details of Romneycare, but as I
understand it, the Mass legislature was forced to impose price caps on
health care last year, and the price caps are failing.

*** 15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017
• Assad says loss of chemical weapons a blow to Syria's morale
• EU officials demand more privatization from Greece

****
**** Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017
****


Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini

As I wrote yesterday
( "14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster" ),
the Obamacare IT systems are a continuing
technical disaster, much worse than the "glitches" that the
administration are describing. It now turns out that the technical
issues are much more serious than even I realized.

Mark Bertolini, the CEO of insurance company Aetna Inc., has been
personally involved in the implementation of Obamacare from the
beginning, from both a policy and an IT perspective, and he's always
been a supporter of Obamacare, albeit perhaps a reluctant one.

Bertolini was interviewed on CNBC on Monday, and his technical
assessment of the Obamacare web sites is that they're so bad they
won't be fully working until 2017.

Since yesterday, several people have written to me to complain that I
was being too negative about the Obamacare web sites, and I didn't
really know, since I wasn't involved in their development. But that's
not true of Bertolini, who knows as much as anyone in the country
about what's going on.

I transcribed the interview. Questions from the interviewers are
enclosed in [brackets]. Bertolini was first asked if he knew from the
beginning how bad it would be:

<QUOTE>"We were one of the alpha testers. We got pretty
nervous as we got further along. We helped them build blueprints,
on how to put the system together, and as they started missing
deadlines, we were pretty convinced that it was going to be a
difficult launch.

[Did you tell them - don't do this - move the date?]

We started to help them prioritize how to move ahead with the
project. They have their perspective on when they wanted to start,
so we did our very best to help them get started on time. ...

[How long will it take to actually get them fixed to work, get out
all the kinks?]

That is a big question. When you implement a project of this
size, the first thing you do is unit testing, then you do
application testing, then you do integration testing, and then you
do scalability testing. And that plan is usually a lot longer than
some of the application development itself. That's happening on
the fly.

[It wasn't done beforehand?]

All of it's been on the fly. We didn't get code drops until a
month before the system went live from a user testing
standpoint."<END QUOTE>

This is already devastating. Yesterday I was criticizing the
contractors who implemented the web sites as incompetent, and this
proves it. For a full-scale rollout of such a large system on October
1, any competent IT manager would have provided testable code several
months earlier. As Bertolini says below, this should be a career
ending for the people involved.

<QUOTE>"So if you think about ... you don't know what
scalability issues you have until you have all the functionality
working, and everybody starts hitting the system, so you've
actually gotta get the functionality up, and the integrated
testing working, cause you don't know how many files you're going
to hit, how many people are going to hit them, until you get it
working together. And then scalability is the last thing you
size.

[What happens January 1 - if people are having troubles now - if
it's that bad of a situation, is everyone going to be able to sign
up by January 1?]

No, and that's why enrollment is gonna still be open until march
31. But I think the bigger issue is whether enough people will be
able to sign up to make it work.

[You need buy-in by a lot of people -- need a lot of young
people.]

I think the attention span of the younger generation in using
technology - if it doesn't work the first time, it's going to be
pretty tough to get them back the second time. And so as a
result, with the web site technology, we are actually testing it
with the types of users who we want to use it.

[So there's not much time to get it right.]

It's the law of the land, number one. Number two, public
exchanges are gonna be here to stay, so we need to make them work
somehow. And I think the question is how we get there from here.

[The six months between now and March 31 - that's not a long time
- to do all of the testing and prototyping and evaluation and
scalability of the system this large. Is that enough time, in
your judgment?]

I don't know. We're in a place now where there's so much wrong,
you just don't know what's broken until you get a lot more of it
fixed. And we have to plow through it. I've been here one or two
times in my career, it's nothing you ever want to repeat, cause
it's very difficult. It's a career ending event in a lot of
cases.

[Taking the politics out of it -- Are you worried that if it's
delayed a year - once you get people into an entitlement, you
never get them out, so you wanted to get started, right?]

If the program blows up because people don't sign up, then the
program's not going to move ahead either for all that while.

So this is gonna be a three year thing.

[Should they delay it by a year?]

I would have [delayed it], if I'd been in their seat. So the
politics got in the way of a good business decision.

So this is gonna be 2017-2016-2017 before it grows. I think the
bigger issue for folks to think about is that private exchanges
have now kicked off, as a result of the private sector innovating
against the law. And as these private exchanges move ahead, and
they're very good experiences in a lot of cases, we'll be
launching a number of them, we'll be in 15 this year alone, what
will happen is that you'll start to attract people to a different
kind of marketplace. What will do in juxtaposition to the public
exchanges over time, and how will that work?"<END QUOTE>

The important points in Bertolini's interview are these: Almost no
testing has been done; he would have delayed implementation for a
year; it's going to take three years to get it working.

I've been a Senior Software Engineer for decades, and I've been a
technology journalist for almost as long, so I'm very well aware of
what's going on here. I've been a personal participant in several IT
disasters, and I've been an outsider reporting on several IT
disasters, and I can tell you that this smells to high heaven like an
IT disaster.

There are two kinds of IT projects. One kind is like digging a ditch.
You know that if you keep digging, you'll eventually get the ditch
dug. It may take longer than expected, but sooner or later it will
always end successfully, because there's no real risk.

The second kind of IT project is like building a bridge, and the risk
is extremely high. You can keep building, but if one day the entire
bridge collapses and falls into the river, then you have no choice but
to either start over or just abandon the project. The Obamacare web
sites are in this category.

This project should have cost $10-25 million, as I described
yesterday, but it's already cost an astronomical $93.7 million. Now
the Obama administration has to decide whether this "bridge," which is
in the process of collapsing into the river, should be repaired, or
whether the project should be started from scratch. It's quite
possible that there's no choice but to start it from scratch. But
either way, it's going to cost many more tens of millions of dollars
to get working, if it ever works. And the Obama administration is so
desperate to save Obamacare, they'll do anything, no matter how
desperate the action.

There's one more thing worth noting: Bertolini talks about "private
exchanges" that are springing up in competition with the federal
exchanges. This is a very interesting development worth watching.
CNBC

****
**** Assad says loss of chemical weapons a blow to Syria's morale
****

It's always nice to know that even genocidal maniacs can have a sense
of humor, so it's worth a chuckle that Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad said that he should have been a winner of the Nobel Peace
Prize. Actually, I've made the same suggestion in the past - that he
deserves the prize by exterminating as many innocent people as
possible, so there's no one left to fight a war.

However, it's possibly more interesting that al-Assad, who until
recently denied that he had chemical weapons, is now saying that
losing them would be a loss of morale for all of Syria:

<QUOTE>"There is no doubt that the loss of chemical weapons
has resulted in a loss of morale and a political loss for
Syria. Since 2003, Syria has demanded that the countries in the
region dismantle their WMDs, and the chemical weapons were meant
to be a bargaining chip in Syria’s hands in exchange for Israel
dismantling its nuclear arsenal.

The chemical weapons, which have lost their deterrent value over
the past few years, were meant to be used only after Israel used
its nuclear weapons.

Today the price has changed and we have agreed to give up our
chemical weapons to remove the threat of the US attacking
us."<END QUOTE>

So why are they a loss of morale for Syria? Because: "Israel would
distribute gas masks to its citizens when there was a rise in tension
in the region." Jerusalem Post

****
**** EU officials demand more privatization from Greece
****

Greece was first bailed out for 110 billion euros in 2010 but when
that failed, it got a second rescue in 2012 worth 130 billion euros
plus a private sector debt write-off totaling more than 100 billion
euros. But it still isn't enough. Greece would like to issue bonds
in 2014 for 4.4 billion euros, to pay for debts that will come due
next year, but Greece's debt is already 175% of annual output, and so
European officials are refusing to permit Greece to go even deeper
into debt. So there's still a 4.4 billion euro funding gap in 2014,
which will have to be made up somehow, and an ECB executive board
member puts the figure at 6 billion euros. Instead, the ECB is
demanding that Greece sell off more government assets, and privatize
more government run businesses. At any rate, European officials will
not make any decisions until December. Kathimerini and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Aetna, Mark Bertolini, Obamacare,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Israel, Greece

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*** 16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Starving Syrians are told to eat dogs, cats and donkeys
• Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in
• Obamacare web code full of typos and errors

****
**** Starving Syrians are told to eat dogs, cats and donkeys
****


Clerical fatwa permits starving Syrians to eat dogs, cats and donkeys

A group of clerics in Syria have issued a fatwa giving starving men,
women and children permission to eat cats, dogs and donkeys, if they
have nothing else to eat. The fatwa is directed to suburbs of
Damascus where Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad is
conducting a siege, refusing to allow aid convoys to enter. At the
same time, the cleric pleaded for humanitarian help:

<QUOTE>"How does the world sleep with full stomachs while
there are hungry people, and not far from the main city
[Damascus], just few meters way.

Haven’t you heard the fatwas (religious edicts) that have filled
our streets and mosques by permitting people to eat cats, dogs and
other animals that have already been killed by the bomb attacks?

Are you waiting for us to eat the flesh of our martyrs and our
dead after fearing our lives? ... You have forgot that you have
brothers and sisters in southern Damascus who are
hungry."<END QUOTE>

The last paragraph refers to cannibalism.

The fatwa is also being issued to Palestinians in refugee camps near
Damascus. Al-Arabiya and BBC

****
**** Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in
****

Sicily's governor Rosario Crocetta declared a state of emergency on
Tuesday, because of difficulty coping with daily arrivals of migrants
from Africa and Syria. Sicily is the largest island in the
Mediterranean, and like Lampedusa is part of Italy. Along with
Lampedusa and Malta, Sicily is a common entry point of migrants.
Calls for action have grown after two tragic shipwrecks last week in
which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and Syrian refugees drowned.
Some 32,000 asylum seekers have landed in Italy and Malta so far this
year, and the rate continues to grow. Italy has requested EU help in
dealing with the flood of migrants. BBC and AFP

****
**** Obamacare web code full of typos and errors
****

Stories continue to indicate that the Obamacare signup web sites are
an IT catastrophe of historic proportions, and that they have no
chance of working for years. ( "15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017"
) Apparently media outlets have been
trying to find anyone who has successfully signed up, and have failed
to do so.

The Obamacare web site source code is, of course, not visible to the
public, as it sits on web servers. However, there's a portion of the
code that's available to anyone. This is the javascript code that the
web servers send to your local browser. According to one experienced
programmer:

<QUOTE>"What I am seeing in this code is nothing short of
jaw-dropping. As people are now saying, this code is "CRAAAAAZY!"
You almost can't even call it Javascript code. If you sat down 100
monkeys in front of 100 typewriters and told them to start banging
away, I'm confident at least one of them would come up with
something far better than the Healthcare.gov Javascript
code."<END QUOTE>

The javascript code is full of significant design errors that impact
both its functionality and performance. NaturalNews.com

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, fatwa, Bashar al-Assad,
Sicily, Lampedusa, Italy, Malta, Eritrea, Somalia,
Obamacare, javascript

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*** 17-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi's Hajj ends successfully with no reports of MERS virus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi's Hajj ends successfully with no reports of MERS virus
• 'Year of Dutch-Russian Cooperation' fails as relations spiral downward

****
**** Saudi's Hajj ends successfully with no reports of MERS virus
****


The Grand Mosque in Mecca last week (Reuters)

Saudi Arabian officials and officials at the World Health Organization
(WHO) are breathing a sigh of relief, with the three-day Hajj celebration
ending on Thursday with no reported cases of the Middle Eastern
Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). In the last 18 months,
there have been 119 people in the Kingdom infected with MERS, with 51
deaths, including two last week. Each year, the Hajj brings millions
of Muslims from 188 countries around the world to Saudi Arabia for
their once in a lifetime pilgrimage, and it was feared so many people
in close proximity to one another might cause a worldwide pandemic, as
pilgrims carried the disease back to their home countries.

Because of this fear, the Saudis went to extraordinary lengths to do
everything possible to prevent spread of the deadly virus. Hajj visas
were cut back for the young and elderly, for pregnant women and
children under 12. Country quotas were sharply reduced As a result,
1.98 million pilgrims performed Hajj this year against 3.2 million
last year.

Concerns have not yet ended, however. It's possible to contract the
MERS virus and not show symptoms for several days, and so it's still
possible for the virus to spread. Saudi Gazette and Reuters

****
**** 'Year of Dutch-Russian Cooperation' fails as relations spiral downward
****

The 2013 was supposed to be the year when the Netherlands and Russia
celebrated their centuries-long rich history, and encouraged mutual
investments and tourism. But a series of undiplomatic incidents are
causing relations between the two countries to spiral to a low level.

The latest incident occurred late on Tuesday, when two Russians
attacked Dutch diplomat Onno Elderenbosch in his own apartment in
Moscow, beating him, tying him up, destroyed his apartment, and wrote
homophobic symbols on the mirror with pink lipstick. The Netherlands
was the first country in the world to legalize same-sex marriages and
has also been at odds with Russia over gay rights.

This attack was apparently in revenge for an attack last week by Dutch
police on Russian diplomat Dmitry Brodin, when they entered his
apartment in The Hague, knocked him down, hit him, and dragged him to
the police station.

This all happens in the context of Russia's detention of 30 Greenpeace
activists and charging them with piracy, and seizing their Dutch-registered
boat the Arctic Sunrise, after Greenpeace attacked a Gazprom offshore
oil platform in the Arctic Ocean. The Netherlands has instigated
legal action against Russia at the International Tribunal for the Law
of the Sea for the release of boat and crew. Dutch Consulate and CS Monitor and Ria Novosti (Moscow)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Hajj,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV
Russia, Netherlands, Onno Elderenbosch, Dmitry Brodin,
Greenpeace, Arctic Sunrise, Gazprom,
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

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*** 18-Oct-13 World View -- Multiple bombings across Iraq kill more than 60, mostly Shias

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Multiple bombings across Iraq kill more than 60, mostly Shias
• Egypt under international criticism for deporting Syrian refugees

****
**** Multiple bombings across Iraq kill more than 60, mostly Shias
****


Aftermath of suicide bombing in northern Iraq city of Mwafaqiya on Thursday

In a new paroxysm of violence in Iraq on Thursday, well over 60 people
were killed by a series of car bombings that struck across Baghdad,
along with additional suicide bombings in northern Iraq. The bombs
targeted Shia neighborhoods, and it's assumed that the perpetrators
were al-Qaeda linked terrorists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant/Sham/Syria (ISIS). President George Bush's military "surge" in
2007 was successful in ejecting al-Qaeda from Iraq, but since the
American withdrawal in December 2011, all that work has been coming
undone. With Syria's civil war continuing, the fault line between
Sunni and Shia Muslims is increasingly inflamed throughout the
Mideast, and is drawing both Sunni and Shia jihadists into the region.
AFP and Reuters

****
**** Egypt under international criticism for deporting Syrian refugees
****

With millions of innocent Syrian civilians fleeing their homes to
escape bombardment by heavy weapons supplied by Russia to the
psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad of Syria, the resources of many
neighboring countries are being overwhelmed. Some 300,000 of the
refugees have fled to Egypt, which is under international criticism
for arresting them and deporting them back to Syria. However,
Egyptian authorities say that the vast majority of the Syrian refugees
living in Egypt are treated well, and only a small number are deported
-- those that commit crimes, and those that participate in protests
supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Al Ahram (Cairo)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad,
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant/Sham/Syria, ISIS,
Egypt, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 19-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia shocks U.N. by rejecting Security Council seat

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel / Turkey relations poisoned further by spy revelation accusation
• Saudi Arabia shocks U.N. by rejecting Security Council seat
• Obamacare insurance companies trapped in a vicious financial Catch-22

****
**** Israel / Turkey relations poisoned further by spy revelation accusation
****


Erdogan and Netanyahu

The mutual personal hatred of Turkey's hardline president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and Israel's hardline Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
been pretty apparent the last few years as Israeli-Turkish relations
have become poisonous, especially after the the deaths of nine Turkish
citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between Israel's navy and
the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza in violation of
Israel's Gaza blockade. Israel finally apologized several months ago
(see "15-Apr-13 World View -- Turkey warns Israel against 'dirty bargaining' over flotilla compensation"
), but it did little to help the relationship
between the two countries.

Now, a new accusation is threatening to worsen relations even further.
According to a report by David Ignatius in the Washington Post, at the
height of the mutual bitterness over the Mavi Marmara incident, Hakan
Fidan, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT),
transmitted to Iranian intelligence the identities of up to ten
Iranians who had been working with Israel's Mossad intelligence
agency. Israel believes that the disclosure by Erdogan's government
was deliberate, and that President Obama supported Erdogan.

However, Turkey is vehemently denying the charges, and is
countercharging that the Israelis are manufacturing accusations as a
form of "psychological warfare against the government and its
intelligence service." According to one of Erdogan's advisers,
"Ignatius' article is so incoherent. The intelligence world operates
according to agreements." Washington Post and Hurriyet (Istanbul)

****
**** Saudi Arabia shocks U.N. by rejecting Security Council seat
****

After spending months lobbying to get one of the nine non-permanent
seats on the United Nations Security Council, and after finally
achieving their goal when they were awarded at seat on Thursday,
Saudi Arabia shocked the U.N. diplomats by rejecting the
seat because of the U.N.'s hypocrisy. The Saudis are giving
the following reasons for the dramatic rejection:

• There have been over 100,000 deaths and several million
  refugees from the fighting with Syria, and there was a horrific
  chemical weapons attack on August 21, and yet the U.S. and
  the U.N. have done nothing and are doing nothing to stop it.
  
• In particular, the Saudis are unhappy with President Obama for
  several reasons, most recently his pathetic flip-flop on the Syria
  issue, after setting "red lines" which he then ignored. Secretary of
  State John Kerry has even said he was "pleased" with Syria's president
  Bashar al-Assad, for signing a chemical weapons agreement, even though
  al-Assad is free to ignore the agreement with impunity.
  
• After the World War II, the deadliest conflict in history,
  the U.N. was supposed to stop wars between countries, but it's
  track record is dismal.
  
• Because any of the five permanent members (U.S., Russia, Britain,
  China, and France) can veto any attempt to stop war, as the horrific
  situation in Syria has illustrated, which leaves the Security Council
  handcuffed. Since 1982, the U.S. has vetoed 32 Security Council
  resolutions that criticize Israel.
  
• It has been argued that the five permanent members of the Security
  Council, who are all nuclear powers, have created an exclusive nuclear
  club that predominately addresses the strategic interests and
  political motives of the permanent members to the detriment of other
  states. Since three of the five permanent members are European, and
  four are predominantly white Western nations, the Security Council has
  been described as a pillar of global apartheid.

It's very hard to disagree with the criticisms, especially after
the recent debacle over Syria, where al-Assad has been
committing massive genocide of innocent civilians through
heavy weapons supplied by Russia and by chemical weapons. This
is happening right before our eyes, but the U.S. is too
confused and the United Nations is too pathetic to do anything
about it.

Meanwhile, Sunni and Shia jihadists from around the world are
converging in the Mideast, particularly in Iraq and Syria, in
preparation for sectarian war which can be blamed on the Russia and
the U.S. and, most of all, the United Nations. Saudi Gazette and CS Monitor

****
**** Obamacare insurance companies trapped in a vicious financial Catch-22
****

A survey by the Wall St. Journal finds that the insurance companies
that have received insurance plan signups from the Obamacare web sites
are finding that the information they're receiving is wrong. Some
spouses are shown as children, some people are shown as signing up for
multiple plans, in other cases data is missing. "Luckily," there have
only a few signups for many insurance companies, so they're calling
the customers on the phone to verify the information that the
Obamacare web site has provided.

This is giving rise to a kind of "Catch-22." In order to control
prices, the Obamacare law specifies that insurance companies are only
allowed to charge 20% of the premiums they receive to administrative
purposes. In order to make Obamacare work, millions of young, healthy
people have to sign up. But if that ever happened, then the insurance
companies would have enormous administrative costs verifying the
signup data, putting them into a huge financial squeeze.

Obviously, millions of young, healthy people are not signing up for
Obamacare, and it's very unlikely that they will. The only people who
are willing to put up the "glitches" on the web site are those who
desperately need insurance -- that is, the old and sick people. This
would destroy the entire financial model of Obamacare. (See "15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017"
)

Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in
2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as
a proposal of economic insanity,

because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price
controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy.

Some people have written to me to complain that the comparison to
Nixon's wage-price controls is not valid because there are no price
controls in Obamacare.

I'm no expert on the details of Obamacare, but from the day it was
proposed in 2009, I heard story after story about all the different
ways that prices were going to be controlled. Insurance companies are
limited in profits, hospitals and doctors were restricted in charges,
and so forth. Some of the loudest complainers are labor unions who
are being taxed because they offer "Cadillac" plans. Whether done by
taxes or restricting prices, these are all price controls, as in the
case of Nixon's wage-price controls.

For those of you who are "liberal" and "progressive," you're the ones
who owe the world an explanation, not me.

If you're "liberal" or "progressive," then you have to believe that
Nixon's wage-price controls should have worked. They were
enthusiastically backed by labor unions and other liberals, they were
fully backed by the Nixon administration, and almost everyone thought
they'd work to reduce inflation from 2-3% down to 1% or so.

Instead, they were a disaster, and inflation rocketed to 10%. ( "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse"
)

If you're liberal or progressive, then you owe me and other people why
that happened. This is a simple non-ideological question.

Wage-price controls were a typical liberal program, attempting to
control the markets through government regulation, and it was a
disaster. Give me and others an explanation of why this typical
liberal program was a disaster.

When you go past your ideology and understand that you have no
explanation why Nixon's wage-price controls were a catastrophe, then
you'll also understand why Obamacare is a catastrophe.

In simple economic terms:

• If you want health care prices to go down, then you need to
  increase the supply of medical services -- doctors, hospitals,
  devices, insurance companies, and so forth.
  
• The only way to increase the supply is to allow prices to find
  their own levels, which means no price controls.
  
• Instead, Obamacare seeks to control prices, which is going to
  DECREASE the supply of medical services.
  
• This means that the prices of medical services are going to
  explode.

That's exactly what happened in the Nixon era, and it's exactly what's
happening today.

Once again, forget your ideology for a moment, and go back and check
out what happened under Nixon's wage-price controls, and you'll see
the same thing happening today.

One bit of irony: Labor unions were the loudest advocates of
wage-price controls, and they were the loudest complainers when the
controls failed. Today, labor unions were the loudest advocates of
Obamacare, and today they're the loudest complainers. Go figure.
WSJ and USA Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza, Mavi Marmara,
National Intelligence Organization, MIT, Hakan Fidan,
Saudi Arabia, United Nations Security Council,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Obamacare

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*** 20-Oct-13 World View -- Philippines building a new naval base in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 50,000 Syrian Christians ask for Russian citizenship
• Philippines building a new naval base in South China Sea

****
**** 50,000 Syrian Christians ask for Russian citizenship
****


Bombed out Christian Church in Idlib province in Syria (AP)

An enclave of 50,000 Christians in Syria have sent a letter
to Russia's Foreign Ministry seeking dual citizenship:

<QUOTE>"Since Syrian law allows dual citizenship, we have
decided to seek citizenship of the Russian Federation if this is
possible. Russian citizenship would be an honor for any Syrian
Christian who wished to acquire it. ...

It is for the first time since the Nativity of Christ that we
Christians of Qalamoun living in the villages of Saidnaya, Maara
Saidnaya, Maaloula and Maaroun are under threat of banishment from
our land. We prefer death to exile and life in refugee camps, and
so we will defend our land, honor and faith, and will not leave
the land on which Christ walked."<END QUOTE>

The Christians are allied with the Bashar al-Assad regime,
and are fearful of terrorist attack by the al-Qaeda linked
jihadists that have been coming to Syria, which they
blame on the West.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the issue was up to Russia's
leadership to decide, since Russian citizenship is granted by
presidential decree. Interfax Religion (Moscow) and Ria Novosti (Moscow)

****
**** Philippines building a new naval base in South China Sea
****

Although hostile confrontations between China and nations bordering
the South China Sea have been out of the news for a while, tensions
have remained high. However, China still claims all the islands and
resources of the entire South China Sea, including regions that have
historically belonged to other countries, including Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia and the Philippines. China blames the United States for
stirring up trouble by, among other things, encouraging the
Philippines to submit its dispute with China to the international
tribunal of the United Nations’ law of the sea, which China refuses to
recognize. According to a recent editorial in China's government
organ:

<QUOTE>"But the US has not succeeded in convincing
Asia-Pacific nations that these international laws are crucial to
their foreign policy. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia have
all tacitly or explicitly admitted Beijing's sovereignty over the
islands and islets within the South China Sea's nine-dash
line. However, these three countries have all seized some islands
and islets on the Chinese side of the nine-dash line. The US has
failed to fairly judge the disputes - in fact, once again, it
encourages these nations to contest Chinese claims."<END QUOTE>

This is a really bizarre description of the situation, but it's
probably one the many Chinese officials believe. Furthermore, China's
leadership has become increasingly assertive in the last few weeks as
China's president Xi Jinping made a strong presence at the ASEAN
meeting of southeast Asian nations, while President Obama was a
complete no-show because of the government shutdown.

The Philippines has, in particular, decided that it can't entirely
depend on the U.S. for protection in the South China Sea, despite the
mutual defense treaty that the two signed decades ago. As we recently
reported ( "17-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. and Philippines make military plans to counter China"
), Philippine and U.S. officials have agreed that the
U.S. will deploy aircraft, ships, troops and equipment in civilian and
military facilities in the Philippines, while the Philippines beefs up
its own military capabilities. Last week, Philippine officials
announced that they're building a new naval base in the South China
Sea on Oyster Bay, just 100 miles from the Spratly Islands, which are
bitterly contested between the Philippines, Vietnam and China.
China Daily (Beijing) and The Diplomat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Qalamoun, Russia, China, South China Sea,
Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines

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*** 21-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia under pressure to reverse its U.N. Security Council decision

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. and the world approach the point of 'peak debt'
• Saudi Arabia under pressure to reverse its U.N. Security Council decision

****
**** U.S. and the world approach the point of 'peak debt'
****


U.S. Private and Public Debt as % of GDP since 1870

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
global financial crisis is far from over, and a global panic and stock
market crash could happen at any time. As I've said, this is
inevitable because of the exponential growth of public debt. The
above graph is interesting, because it shows the ratio of private and
public debt as a % of GDP going back as far as 1870. I've written in
the past about how this has been growing exponentially since 1950, but
this graph shows the secular nature of the growth a lot more clearly
than I've been able to do in the past.

The U.S. ratio is currently at about 350%, but there are other
economies that are far worse off: the Eurozone is at 450%, the U.K. is
at 550%, and Japan's debt is close to 700% of GDP.

These figures show how precarious the world economy is, and how any
factor that creates some kind of disequilibrium could result in a
global financial crisis. Just to take one of many possible examples,
interest rates might rise from their current artificially low
near-zero percent levels. This could affect hedge funds that are
holding hundreds of trillions of dollars in interest rate swaps, who
would suddenly have to sell to cover their own debts, resulting in a
worldwide chain reaction and spiral downward. Other possibilities
include a war or a start of Federal Reserve tapering.

It's worthwhile pointing out that there's nothing that the U.S.
government can do to cause this or to prevent this. Continue the
sequester or end the sequester, reduce food stamp payments or increase
them, and so forth -- it doesn't even matter. "Eat, drink and be
merry, for tomorrow we die." [Ecclesiastes 8:15, Isaiah 22:13]

The world economy is so fragile and out of kilter that this massive
deleveraging is baked into the cake, and the financial crisis will
begin when the right event triggers. It doesn't matter too much what
anyone does in the meantime. Future Tense blog

****
**** Saudi Arabia under pressure to reverse its U.N. Security Council decision
****

After Saudi Arabia's surprise announcement that it would
reject a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council,
a group of Arab nations at the United Nations called an emergency
meeting and appealed to Saudi Arabia to reverse its decision.
According to the Arab Group's statement:

<QUOTE>"We hope that they (Saudi Arabia), which are amongst
the blessed who represent the Arab and Islamic world at this
important and historical stage, specifically for the Middle East
region ... maintain their membership in the Security Council.

[they should] continue their brave role in defending our issues
specifically at the rostrum of the Security Council."<END QUOTE>

Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia's rejection was due to its anger at
United States policy. King Abdullah was furious at the Obama
administration for throwing Egypt's leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus
when the Arab Revolution began in 2011. Recently, the Saudis are
disillusioned by the unwillingness of the U.S. and the U.N. to do
anything about the genocidal slaughter, by Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, even after
crossing clearly stated "red lines" by using chemical weapons, after
president Obama's flip-flop.

The latest concern is that president Obama appears to be close to
another flip-flop, by reaching some kind of détente with Iran that
would lift sanctions and permit Iran to continue developing nuclear
weapons.

The Saudis believe that they have played by all the rules, not
pursuing any nuclear development of their own, and following all of
America's wishes for decades. Since president Obama has taken office,
America has turned its back on Saudi Arabia in one policy after
another. The rejection of the U.N. seat is a signal that the Saudis
don't intend to play by the rules any more.

Saudi Arabia is not scheduled to take the seat until January 1, and so
there's still time for its leaders to change their minds. The National (UAE) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, private and public debt,
Saudi Arabia, United Nations Security Council,
King Abdullah, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad

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*** 22-Oct-13 World View -- Police crackdown tries to control exploding violence in Karachi, Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Police crackdown tries to control exploding violence in Karachi, Pakistan
• The cost of Obamacare
• UK throws out 30% of all the food it grows

****
**** Police crackdown tries to control exploding violence in Karachi, Pakistan
****


Paramilitary soldiers arrest suspects in a residential area in Karachi (AFP)

Officials are bragging that they've arrested or killed over 5,000
"criminals" (killers, extortionists and kidnappers) in Karachi,
Pakistan, in a massive operation that was launched last month on
September 7. In addition, the police recovered 1,209 arms
and 52 bombs.

The police operation was launched because of an explosion of
violence in the last few years. Last year there were 2,124
people killed on the streets. This year there were 2,058
murders just till the end of September, but "only" 155
of those were in September, indicating that the police
crackdown is having some effect.

Karachi is the economic center of Pakistan, and contains highly
volatile mix of different ethnic and religious groups, many of
whom openly hate each other, and others of whom just hate
everyone.

There are the Mohajirs, who are Urdu*speaking migrants from northern
India who came to Pakistan following Partition, the 1947 partitioning
of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, leading to a
horrific war between Hindus and Muslims. There are the Pashtuns, a
major ethnic group mainly in northwest Pakistan, but which in recent
years has been moving south into Karachi in order to escape the
Taliban violence. To pursue their territorial, economic and political
interests, both the Awami National Party (ANP), which represents the
Pashtuns, and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), which represents
Mohajirs, are increasingly turning to violence through proxy forces.
If that isn't bad enough, Karachi is increasingly the home of
terrorists from Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, the Pakistan Taliban).
Dawn (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) and The Diplomat

****
**** The cost of Obamacare
****

The facts and figures about the Obamacare web site just keep pouring
out in gruesome detail. It's like watching a traffic accident. You
have to slow down, and you can't take your eyes off of it, despite the
horror of it.

According to one analyst I heard on tv on Monday, Healthcare.gov cost
$300 million to develop, much higher than the $93.7 million that we
heard last week. According to that analyst, that means 1.5 million
man-hours at $200 per hour. Can I get one of those jobs?

The NY Times is quoting one analyst as follows:

<QUOTE>"One specialist said that as many as five million
lines of software code may need to be rewritten before the Web
site runs properly."<END QUOTE>

Given that 1.5 million man-hours have already been spent on this
project, the figure of 5 million lines of code needing rewriting is
quite plausible.

As I've said several times in the last few days, I've had a lot of
personal experience with IT disasters, and this is easily the worst
I've seen. ( "15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017"
)
The prediction by Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini may be optimistic, in the
sense that this web site may never work. Slate

****
**** UK throws out 30% of all the food it grows
****


UK food waste figures (BBC/Getty)

According to a survey conducted by the UK supermarket chain Tesco,
every family in the UK wastes an estimated $1,200 per year, throwing
away food. Tesco found that 68% of salad sold in bags is thrown out,
50% of bakery items, 40% of apples, 25% of grapes, and 20% of bananas.

I've seen stories like this before. The Tesco study only covers food
that reached Tesco's shelves, but I saw a story last year that claimed
that if you add in the amount of food that's thrown out by farmers and
distributors, then 30-40% of all food grown in the UK is thrown out.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says that
one-third of all food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted
- around 1.3 billion tons per year.

My reaction to this story is: What the hell is going on? Can't some
of this food be shipped to starving people in Africa and Asia? Or
starving people in Europe, for that matter.

Every now and then I do a story on how food prices have been rising
fairly steadily since the 1990s. (See, for example "21-Nov-10 News -- Food prices skyrocket to 2008 crisis levels"
from 2010.) My conclusion is
that rising food prices is destabilizing populations, especially in
megacities, where children have to search through garbage dumps to
find food for their families to eat.

And the obvious question is this: Why are people starving when
one-third of all food produced for human consumption is wasted? Why
doesn't some smart entrepreneur start a business shipping wasted food
from UK to Africa?

The answer, unfortunately, is that food is cheap only when you can
grow it yourself, or it's grown nearby. Food is horrendously
expensive when it has to be shipped somewhere. Grown food is very
heavy, since a lot of it is mostly water, so shipping costs are high.
And most grown food has to be refrigerated if it's not going to be
eaten right away, which makes shipping costs astronomical. And if an
apple is shipped for a long time, it's not going to look very good, so
the entrepreneur won't make any money charging higher prices.

So, unfortunately, food prices are going to continue to go up, and the
starvation problem is only going to grow worse, especially in
megacities, where food has to be shipped in from long distances.
BBC and United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Karachi, Pakistan, Mohajirs,
Pashtuns, Awami National Party, ANP, Muttahida Quami Movement, MQM,
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Obamacare,
Tesco, UK, FAO,
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization

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