Under the leadership of George W. Bush as well, John. Let's be honest.

*** 24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt expels Turkey's ambassador, Turkey retaliates
• Russia's Putin scores a victory over the EU in Ukraine
• Ukraine commemorates the 80th anniversary of Stalin's Holodomor famine
• In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands

****
**** Egypt expels Turkey's ambassador, Turkey retaliates
****


Erdogan on Saturday gives the four-finger salute used by Muslim Brotherhood supporters (AFP)

Saying that Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is meddling
in Egypt's affairs, Egypt announced on Saturday that is expelling
Turkey's ambassador. Relations between Turkey and Egypt have been
extremely tense since the July 3 ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood
government of president Mohamed Morsi, with whom Erdogan had a close,
cordial relationship. Egypt has frequently complained about Erdogan's
repeated statements harshly criticizing Egypt's current government,
and apparently Egypt finally decided it had had enough. According to
Egypt's foreign ministry:

<QUOTE>"[The Turkish] leadership has persisted in its
unacceptable and unjustified positions by trying to turn the
international community against Egyptian interests and ... by
making statements that can only be described as an offense to the
popular will. ...

We decided to withdraw our ambassador from Turkey and summon the
Turkish ambassador in Cairo to inform him he is persona non grata
and ask him to leave the country. ...

The people and government of Egypt appreciate the people of
Turkey. However, they hold the Turkish government responsible for
taking ties between the two nations so far [that] such procedures
have to be taken."<END QUOTE>

The expulsion apparently caught Turkey's government by surprise, but
Erdogan reacted quickly, giving the "four-finger salute" during a
press conference, which he has done often. (See "24-Aug-13 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan adopts Muslim Brotherhood's four-fingered salute"
.)

According to Erdogan:

<QUOTE>"I will never have respect for those who come to power
through coups. [Turkey doesn't respect those who] don't respect
the sovereignty rights of peoples."<END QUOTE>

Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Zaman (Ankara)

****
**** Russia's Putin scores a victory over the EU in Ukraine
****

Fresh from major political victories in Syria, resulting in the
humiliation of the United States, Russia's president Vladimir Putin
has scored a major political victory over the European Union in
Ukraine. Just a week before Ukraine was to have signed a major trade
agreement with the European Union, Ukraine bowed to enormous pressure,
bordering on extortion, from Putin, and ended negotiations. According
to Vice Prime Minister Yuri Boiko:

<QUOTE>"We were not convinced that the losses in our
commercial relations with Russia – which we’ve been suffering over
the last four months – would be balanced by the future sales of
our products in European markets."<END QUOTE>

The government's surprise reversal, after months of negotiations and
promises, is infuriating the opposition. Relations within Ukraine are
bitter, since the population of eastern Ukraine are mostly ethnic
Russians, about 17% of the population, while western Ukraine is
populated mostly by ethnic Ukrainians, about 78%, and this
capitulation to the Russians is provoking protests, though not
sufficiently large protests to continue negotiations with the EU.
Kyiv Post and Bloomberg

****
**** Ukraine commemorates the 80th anniversary of Stalin's Holodomor famine
****

Ukrainians on Saturday commemorated the 80th anniversary of the
Holodomor, the 1932-33 genocidal famine that killed as many as 10
million people. Russia's dictator Josef Stalin, wanting to starve the
Ukrainian peasants into submission to the Communist party, send
brigades of Communist Party activists swept through the villages and
took everything that was edible. Stalin closed the borders in an
attempt to keep the genocide secret, but details are known thanks to
one journalist, Gareth Jones, who risked his life to report first-hand
on what was happening. (See "UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 famine in Ukraine"
from 2009.)

According to one survivor:

<QUOTE>"The brigades took all the wheat, barley - everything
- so we had nothing left. Even beans that people had set aside
just in case. The brigades crawled everywhere and took
everything. People had nothing left to do but die."<END QUOTE>

Russia objects to the "genocide" label, and that the Holodomor was not
intentional. BBC and Kyiv Post

****
**** In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands
****


Map of China's East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (BBC)

In a major escalation of tensions with Japan, China has announced the
creation of an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone," which
says that China’s Ministry of National Defense will have
administrative responsibility for the entire East China Sea region,
including the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands that have historically belonged
to Japan. According to the announcement:

<QUOTE>"[All] aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air
Defense Identification Zone should follow the instructions of the
[Ministry of National Defense]. ...

China’s armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to
respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or
refuse to follow the instructions."<END QUOTE>

However, the ministry add, "Normal flights by international air liners
in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone will not be
affected in any way."

China has repeatedly demanded to take sovereignty over regions of the
South China Sea and East China Sea that have historically belonged to
other nations, and has threatened to use its vast military power
against anyone who disagrees. The reason is that China wants to take
control of the vast oil and gas resources in these regions. In
particular, a naval confrontation of some kind around the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands between Chinese and Japanese warships has been
almost a daily occurrence for over a year. Now, China is escalating
its level of confrontation to air power as well. BBC and The Diplomat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Ukraine, Russia, European Union, Vladimir Putin,
Yuri Boiko, Holodomor, Josef Stalin, Gareth Jones,
China, East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone,
Senkaku, Diaoyu, South China Sea, East China Sea

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*** 25-Nov-13 World View -- 'Historic' Iran nuclear deal raises worldwide controversy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Obama hails historic Iran nuclear agreement
• Israel's Netanyahu condemns a historic mistake
• Nuclear deal greeted with joy in Iran and Russia
• Members of Congress from both parties object to Iran deal

****
**** President Obama hails historic Iran nuclear agreement
****


Foreign ministers from (L-R) Iran, EU, U.S. and France laugh and hug after reaching agreement in Geneva on Sunday (AFP)

Iran and six major powers, meeting in Geneva, agreed Sunday morning on
a historic deal that freezes key parts of Iran’s nuclear program in
exchange for temporary relief on some economic sanctions.

President Barack Obama hailed the agreement:

<QUOTE>"Today, that diplomacy opened up a new path toward a
world that is more secure -- a future in which we can verify that
Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful and that it cannot build a
nuclear weapon.

While today’s announcement is just a first step, it achieves a
great deal. For the first time in nearly a decade, we have halted
the progress of the Iranian nuclear program, and key parts of the
program will be rolled back. Iran has committed to halting
certain levels of enrichment and neutralizing part of its
stockpiles. Iran cannot use its next-generation centrifuges,
which are used for enriching uranium. Iran cannot install or
start up new centrifuges, and its production of centrifuges will
be limited. Iran will halt work at its plutonium reactor. And
new inspections will provide extensive access to Iran’s nuclear
facilities and allow the international community to verify whether
Iran is keeping its commitments.

These are substantial limitations which will help prevent Iran
from building a nuclear weapon. Simply put, they cut off Iran’s
most likely paths to a bomb. Meanwhile, this first step will
create time and space over the next six months for more
negotiations to fully address our comprehensive concerns about the
Iranian program. And because of this agreement, Iran cannot use
negotiations as cover to advance its program."<END QUOTE>

White House and Washington Post

****
**** Israel's Netanyahu condemns a historic mistake
****

Directly contradicting Obama's statement that the nuclear agreement
with Iran opened "a new path to world that is more secure," Israel's
Benjamin Netanyahu said that the world had become a more dangerous
place:

<QUOTE>"What was accomplished last night in Geneva is not a
historic agreement; it’s a historic mistake,” Netanyahu said at
the start of Sunday morning’s weekly cabinet meeting. “Today the
world has become much more dangerous, because the most dangerous
regime in the world took a meaningful step toward acquiring the
most dangerous weapon in the world.

For the first time the world’s leading powers agreed to the
enrichment of uranium in Iran, while ignoring the Security Council
resolutions that they themselves championed,” the prime minister
said. “These sanctions have been removed for cosmetic Iranian
concessions that can be canceled in weeks. This agreement and what
it means threaten many countries, and including, of course,
Israel. Israel is not bound by this agreement. The regime in Iran
is committed to Israel’s destruction and Israel has the right and
responsibility to defend itself, by itself, against any
threat."<END QUOTE>

The Arab states have been largely quiet so far about the deal, but
Abdullah al-Askar, a foreign affairs official from Saudi Arabia, said:

<QUOTE>"I am afraid Iran will give up something on to get
something else from the big powers in terms of regional
politics. And I'm worrying about giving Iran more space or a freer
hand in the region.

The government of Iran, month after month, has proven that it has
an ugly agenda in the region, and in this regard no one in the
region will sleep and assume things are going
smoothly."<END QUOTE>

Askar added that if Iran builds a bomb, then a number of other
countries will do the same, including "Egypt, maybe Turkey, Saudi
Arabia, maybe the Emirates." Times of Israel and Reuters

****
**** Nuclear deal greeted with joy in Iran and Russia
****


Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov laughs hysterically as his car pulls away from the conference venue (AFP)

The nuclear deal was hailed as a victory by the two most powerful men
in the country, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president
Hassan Rouhani. The general public greeted the agreement with
joy and pleasure, because it signaled the beginning of the end
of Western sanctions that had hobbled the economy. Many
of them thanked Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif for
negotiating the deal.

<QUOTE>"Thank you negotiators! Thank you Mr Zarif!"

"God bless you smiling man. Your smile has made a nation
happy."<END QUOTE>

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called it a "win-win" for
everyone:

<QUOTE>"The very long and difficult negotiations on the
Iranian nuclear program have ended, an agreement has been reached,
and this deal crowns [our] longstanding relations, during which
we’ve seen both ups and downs. ...

Iran has agreed to a range of additional measures apart from those
that the agency is already undertaking. So I believe that in the
long run, it’s win-win for everyone. [The negotiators] felt that
the declarations [from Iran] about wishing to find a solution had
a serious basis. This became apparent in the negotiating positions
of our Iranian colleagues."<END QUOTE>

AFP and Russia Today

****
**** Members of Congress from both parties object to Iran deal
****

According to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Iran has the right to
a peaceful nuclear program, but does not have the right to enrich
uranium or plutonium. According to Iran's foreign minister Javad
Zarif, Iran has a sacred right to continue to enrich. This
disagreement was left unresolved by the deal.

Many people are comparing the Iran situation to that of North Korea.
The North Koreans negotiated a deal to get sanctions removed in return
for ending their nuclear program, and then they ignored the deal, and
now have nuclear weapons.

The Iran sanctions have always been largely bipartisan, and there were
bipartisan objections to the Iran deal. Here's the statement of
Georgia Republican Saxby Chambliss, which is fairly representative
of the objections:

<QUOTE>"Now is not the time to ease sanctions when they are
working. We’ve got all the leverage in the negotiation and we’ve
let them out of the trap.

We have trusted the Iranians before just like the North Koreans on
nuclear issues, and what have we gotten for it? They continue to
hide their development of these weapons. And you know in spite of
their agreement here to reduce the enrichment, the 20 percent
stockpile they have enriched, they can go to North Korea and buy
that from them in a heartbeat.

I think you’re going to see a strong movement in the United States
Senate to move ahead to tighten sanctions. Now there will have to
be some timeframe in there. They’ve done this deal. And this can
be done without the approval of Congress. So for the next six
months it looks like this deal is going to be in place. And it may
be that we have to pass a resolution that puts sanctions on
effective three months, four months, six months, whatever it might
be."<END QUOTE>

According to Senator Carl Levin, Democratic chairman of the Senate
Armed Services Committee, "If Iran does not consent to a comprehensive
agreement that ensures it cannot acquire a nuclear weapon, there is a
broad consensus in Congress to impose even tougher sanctions."
Atlanta Journal-Constitution and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Javad Zarif, Hassan Rouhani,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia, Abdullah al-Askar,
Russia, Sergei Lavrov, John Kerry,
North Korea, Saxby Chambliss, Carl Levin

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*** 26-Nov-13 World View -- Jubilation in Tehran over Iran's nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jubilation in Tehran over Iran's nuclear deal
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan

****
**** Jubilation in Tehran over Iran's nuclear deal
****


Jubilant Iranians holding posters of president Hassan Rouhani welcome the return of victorious negotiator Javad Zarif in Tehran on Sunday (AP)

Iranians cheered foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on his return
to Tehran, after successfully negotiating the nuclear deal in Geneva.
He was praised as an "ambassador of peace", and chants rang out, "No
to war, sanctions, surrender and insult."

In particular, they were jubilant that Zarif was able to gloat that he
won the concession that Iran can continue enriching nuclear material,
and will continue. Zarif directly contradicted the claim by U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry after the deal had been signed that Iran
had no right to enrich, but Zarif gloated, "Enrichment was
recognized." Defeating the West on enrichment was a key point of
pride for the Iranians, resulting in the jubilation.

This was only a six-month deal, to buy time before reaching a final
deal. According to the U.N. resolutions on the subject, Iran must
stop enriching. It remains to be seen which side will back down on
the issue of enriching. CS Monitor and Time

****
**** Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan
****

Imran Khan, Pakistan's former cricket superstar turned anti-American
politician, has called on his supporters in his Pakistan
Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) political party to blockade transit routes used
by trucks to carry Nato supplies from the port at Karachi through
Pakistan to Afghanistan. Khan called for the blockade after a
November 21 American drone strike killed two senior Haqqani network
leaders, along with three Taliban leaders. (See "22-Nov-13 World View -- New American drone strike stirs outrage in Pakistan"
)

Khan is threatening to continue the blockade until all American drone
strikes are ended. Khan wants to end Taliban terrorism politically by
negotiating with the terrorists, a concept that can be accurately
defined as a fantasy. According to Khan:

<QUOTE>"Pakistan cannot take this any longer. It has paid a
heavy price for participating in the US war in Afghanistan and I'm
afraid the time has come to change strategy. And the strategy is
political settlement. But there won't be a political settlement as
long as there are drone attacks."<END QUOTE>

Khan's power base is the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bordering on
Pakistan's tribal area which, in turn, borders on Afghanistan. Khan
is setting national policy from a provincial level, and he's not
receiving support from Pakistan's president Nawaz Sharif, or the
national government. So it's not expected that the blockade will last
so long that it will harm the Nato forces, especially since they
expected the blockade and are prepared for it. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Channel News Asia (Singapore)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
Hassan Rouhani, John Kerry,
Pakistan, Imran Khan, Taliban, Nawaz Sharif,
Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, PTI

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*** 27-Nov-13 World View -- U.S. B-52 warplanes challenge China's 'Sea Air Identification Zone'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. B-52 warplanes challenge China's 'Sea Air Identification Zone'
• France to send troops to Central African Republic in 'chaos'

****
**** U.S. B-52 warplanes challenge China's 'Sea Air Identification Zone'
****


B-52 Bomber

America has flown two unarmed B-52 bombers on a training mission in
defiance of the "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone" that
China announced over the weekend. (See "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands"
.)

China announced that all aircraft flying into the region would be
required to identify themselves to China's military, and to provide
flight plans and other information to China. China threatened
military action against any aircraft that didn't comply.

According to the air force, the B-52s remained in the region for an
hour. They did not identify themselves, and there was no
confrontation of any kind.

China's announced identification zone stretches far enough into the
East China Sea to include the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, one of the many
regions that have historically belonged to China's neighbors, but over
which China is demanding full sovereignty anyway. The U.S. Dept. of
Defense has reaffirmed that it will defend Japan's ownership of the
Senkaku Islands:

<QUOTE>"We remain steadfast in our commitments to our allies
and partners. The United States reaffirms its longstanding policy
that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to
the Senkaku Islands."<END QUOTE>

The treaty was signed in 1960. CNN and
U.S. Dept. of Defense

****
**** France to send troops to Central African Republic in 'chaos'
****

France announced that it will send 1,000 troops to the Central African
Republic (CAR), where the United Nations is reporting "humanitarian
chaos," with torture, massacres, rapes, summary executions and
recruitment of child soldiers in violence between Christian militias
and Seleka rebels who are mostly Muslim. French troops will work
alongside a 2,500 strong African Union peacekeeping force that's
already there, in an effort to prevent the violence from spreading to
neighboring countries. France expects the intervention to last six
months.

This would be France's second major military operation in Africa this
year. It was in January of this year that France launched a massive
military operation to drive al-Qaeda linked Ansar al-Dine terrorists
from towns in northern Mali. ( "18-Jan-13 World View -- Did France kick a hornet's nest with military intervention in Mali?"
) That operation was only
supposed to last a couple of months, but there are still active Ansar
al-Dine cells, and the French are still there, with withdrawal now
scheduled for February of next year. Euro News and France 24 and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu, B-52,
France, Central African Republic, C.A.R.,
Seleka, Ansar al-Dine, Mali

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*** 28-Nov-13 World View -- Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• CENTCOM delivers Thanksgiving dinners to soldiers in Afghanistan
• Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s
• Iran rejects White House summary of nuclear agreement

****
**** CENTCOM delivers Thanksgiving dinners to soldiers in Afghanistan
****


Marines at Forward Operating Base Geronimo, Afghanistan, Nov 22, 2012, eat turkey dinner

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), based at MacDill Air Force Base in
Tampa, Florida, is making sure that tens of thousands of American
soldiers on the front lines in Afghanistan can enjoy a Thanksgiving
Day meal featuring turkey, mashed potatoes, gravy, stuffing and
pumpkin pie. According to Scott Anderson:

<QUOTE>"The last I saw, we were nearing 100 percent ready for
Thanksgiving. That means all the turkeys are there for our troops
so they're ready to have a Thanksgiving meal on Thanksgiving. And
we'll turn to and get ready for Christmas. There are some special
meals that we make sure our troops are taken care
of."<END QUOTE>

Never let it be said that I can't post a happy good news story.
WUSF (Florida)

****
**** Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s
****

There was a flood of support by Chinese bloggers when China announced on Saturday
that it was
establishing an "Air Defense Identification Zone" (ADIZ) encompassing
the East China Sea, including Japan's Senkaku Islands, and demanded
that any aircraft flying through the ADIZ must report to China's
military, or face military "defensive" measures. Bloggers wrote,

<QUOTE>"Claiming what is ours and now defending what is ours.
This is something that is worth fighting for."<END QUOTE>

But then on Tuesday, when U.S. B-52s flew into the ADIZ
and were unchallenged by China's military, the
support turned to ridicule. "That's it?" asked several bloggers.
Others said the government would be an international "laughing stock"
and "will face international ridicule." Others called the ADIZ a
farce.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is an extremely
dangerous situation. Those who refer to some statement or other by
president Xi Jinping as proof that China has no intention to start a
war don't understand what's going on. It's not the octogenarians in
Central Committee who are going to drive China to launch a war. It's
the highly nationalistic younger generations, the soldiers, the middle
managers, the girls who send their heroes out to fight, who make the
day to day decisions that create situations that lead to war. Chances
are that this decision to set up the ADIZ was made, or at least
heavily promoted and supported, by highly nationalistic 30-50 year
olds in the government and military bureaucracies, and this is exactly
the kind of thing that can lead to a confrontation that can spiral
into full scale war. International Business Times (Australia) and VOA

****
**** Iran rejects White House summary of nuclear agreement
****

As I've mentioned a couple of times, in the news conferences that
followed last weekend's nuclear agreement with Iran, U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry said that Iran had no right to enrich uranium, while
Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated that Iran had
preserved its right to enrich uranium. The contrast between these two
statements was so dramatic that I've been wondering whether anyone
would even point it out, or whether it would just be swept under the
rug like most things these days.

Iran has now rejected the summary of the nuclear agreement that was
posted on the White House web site. According to the foreign
ministry:

<QUOTE>"What has been released by the website of the White
House as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed
text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet
contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action (the title of the
Iran-powers deal), and this fact sheet has unfortunately been
translated and released in the name of the Geneva agreement by
certain media, which is not true."<END QUOTE>

Iran doesn't state what the specific contradictions are, but they
almost certainly have to do with enrichment. Free Beacon (Washington) and Fars (Tehran) and White House


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, CENTCOM, Afghanistan, Thanksgiving,
China, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ,
Iran, John Kerry, Mohammad Javad Zarif

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*** 29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai
• China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea
• U.S. and Japan conduct huge naval exercise off island of Okinawa

****
**** India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai
****


November 2008 26/11 attack on the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel in Mumbai

Almost exactly five years ago, on November 26, 2008, ten members of
the Pakistani jihadist group, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) landed on the
Mumbai, India, shoreline, having traveled by boat from Karachi in
Pakistan. What followed was a 60-hour shooting rampage, one of the
most horrific terrorist attacks of the decade, killing 164 people.
(See "Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba suspected in terrorist attack on Mumbai (Bombay), India"
from 2008.)

Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had taken precautions to prevent the blame for
the attack to traced back to them. The plan was that all the
participating terrorists would fight to the death, and there would be
no claim of responsibility. However, one of the gunmen was captured
by Indian police during the attack (and later hanged), and two LeT
leaders were captured by Indians and Americans after the attack,
allowing interrogators to get full details about the operational
planning. Furthermore, America's signals intelligence capability was
able to find an electronic trail for the attack that led back not only
to LeT, but also to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
agency. The most likely motive for the attack is now believed to be
LeT's desire to develop closer relations with ISI, at the expense of
other jihadist groups in Pakistan. In the aftermath, India was
considering a military attack on LeT on Pakistan's soil, something
that might have led to an India-Pakistan war, but this was headed off
by hard intervention on both sides from Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice.

As early as April 5, 2005, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said:

<QUOTE>"There can be no political compromise with terror. No
inch conceded. No compassion shown... There are no good terrorists
and bad terrorists. There is no cause, root or branch, that can
ever justify the killing of innocent people. No democratic
Government can tolerate the use of violence against innocent
people and against the functionaries of a duly established
democratic Government."<END QUOTE>

After the 26/11 Mumbai attack, there was a burst of counter-terrorism
energy, but it dropped off quickly. Since then, virtually nothing
has been done to strengthen counter-terrorism efforts.

In the meantime, LeT and its Indian counterpart, Indian Mujahideen
(IM) "have enlarged their network and developed capabilities to carry
out acts of terror at short notice in various parts of the country...
Evidence gathered from various cases indicates Pakistan continues to
nurture terrorist groups," according to Indian police officials.

With the breach in Mumbai 26/11 coming from the sea, there was
enormous rhetorical focus on strengthening coastal security, and much
was claimed by the government thereafter of measures taken to secure
this objective. Five years later, however, it would be necessary to
concede that, fitful efforts notwithstanding, India remains as
vulnerable to terrorist attacks along its coastline as it was in 2008.
South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and ISN Security Watch (Zurich) and Technorati

****
**** China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea
****

China sent its Su-30 and J-11 fighter jets on Thursday into its
recently announced Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), accompanied
by a KJ-2000 airborne radar early warning system. China's military
said it sent the warplanes as a "defensive measure" to patrol the ADIZ
and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's move came hours after Japan
and South Korea challenged China's claim to the ADIZ by sending their
own warplanes into the zone, and that came two days after the U.S. did
the same. These and other countries have refused to recognize the
Chinese-declared ADIZ.

Chinese officials had initially reacted calmly to the U.S. overflights
by simply acknowledging them and saying the Chinese military had
monitored them without taking action. But that measured response
quickly ignited fierce criticism by highly nationalistic Chinese
bloggers. (See "28-Nov-13 World View -- Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s"
) Pressure from the blogger community apparently forced
the Beijing government to take more confrontational action.

The danger is that continued confrontations of this type will
eventually lead to accidental or intentional combat, especially with
nationalism growing in Japan as well as in China. My personal belief
is that China would not want to stumble into a war this way. China is
actively preparing for full-scale war with the United States, but they
would want maximum surprise for maximum effectiveness. VOA and CNN

****
**** U.S. and Japan conduct huge naval exercise off island of Okinawa
****


USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier off Okinawa

USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier was back in
combat mode after its recent detour to the Philippines to take part in
the aid effort in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan. It's patrolling
waters off the island of Okinawa as part of a huge naval exercise --
AnnualEx 2013 -- involving dozens of warships, submarines and aircraft
from the U.S. Navy's 7th fleet and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense
Force (JMSDF). The war games were planned long before China's ADIZ
announcement last week, but the war games will not enter the ADIZ
region. However, the increased tension in the East China Sea gives
the annual war games special significance this year. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Mumbai, 26/11,
Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Manmohan Singh,
Indian Mujahideen, IM,
China, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ,
Japan, South Korea, USS George Washington, Philippines

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*** 30-Nov-13 World View -- China vs U.S. air confrontations are now a daily occurrence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Camels in Qatar found infected with deadly MERS virus
• China vs U.S. air confrontations are now a daily occurrence
• Netherlands loses its AAA credit rating

****
**** Camels in Qatar found infected with deadly MERS virus
****


Camel farm with Doha, Qatar, in the background (File/Reuters)

MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) has
already infected about 170 people, mostly in Saudi Arabia. The virus
is particularly deadly, since almost 40% of those infected have died.
Health officials are puzzled because they have not yet been able to
identify the "animal reservoir" that is allowing the virus to infect
and kill humans, despite the fact that it's not yet being transmitted
from human to human.

Active MERS infections have now been found in three camels in Qatar,
indicating that camels may be the animal reservoir allowing the virus
to spread. The three camels were asymptomatic, meaning that they
carried active infections, but showed no external symptoms. Prior
tests on racing camels in Oman and animals imported by Egypt from
Sudan (for slaughter) signal high degree of infections, indicating
that MERS is widespread in camels throughout the Middle East.
Recombinomics and Reuters

****
**** China vs U.S. air confrontations are now a daily occurrence
****

The United States military is making daily flights into China's
recently declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East
China Sea, but without complying with Chinese demands to notify
Chinese authorities in advance. According to an unnamed Pentagon
official:

<QUOTE>"It’s very important the U.S. signal to the Chinese
that we’re not going to be bullied and that we’re going to adhere
to our commitments."<END QUOTE>

According to a Chinese air force spokesman, two U.S. and 10 Japanese
aircraft were monitoring targets in the zone, and that the Chinese air
force and navy were scrambling warplanes to monitor them.

According to Liu Jieyi, China's ambassador to the United Nations:

<QUOTE>"It is indeed the right of every country to defend its
airspace, and also to make sure that its territorial integrity,
its sovereignty, are safeguarded. This is a normal
arrangement."<END QUOTE>

Apparently the intention is that warplanes from each of the three
countries will be "patrolling" the ADIZ on a daily basis, in order to
safeguard its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

However, U.S. administration officials are advising commercial
airlines to comply with China's demands when flying into the ADIZ.
CNN and Bloomberg

****
**** Netherlands loses its AAA credit rating
****

Standard & Poors ratings agency on Friday downgraded the debt rating
of the Netherlands to AA+, saying, "The downgrade reflects our opinion
that the Netherlands' growth prospects are now weaker than we had
previously anticipated." This leaves only three countries remaining
in the 17 country eurozone with an AAA rating: Germany, Luxembourg and
Finland. The only other countries still having AAA ratings are:
Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and Singapore.
Expatica


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Sudan,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
China, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ,
East China Sea, Liu Jieyi, Japan,
Netherlands, Standard & Poors Financial Services

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*** 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia faces strategic dilemma as rise of China challenges U.S.
• Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed
• How could President Obama have been so wrong?
• The future of Obamacare

****
**** Australia faces strategic dilemma as rise of China challenges U.S.
****


Australian Defense Force Academy parade, 2-March-2013

Because Australia's geographical location places it too far from its
historic allies in terms of potential military support, Australia is
facing a strategic dilemma in dealing with China's rise and America's
relative decline in Asia.

On the one hand, the United States may decide to step aside and accept
Chinese supremacy, while encouraging Japan, India and other countries
to take on China themselves. In this case, Australia would be living
in a region that is highly contested and unstable, and it would no
longer be able to rely on the U.S. for support.

It's more likely that the United States will not want to give up Asian
primacy, and it has already moved closer to Japan, South Korea, India
and Vietnam, strengthening bilateral security and diplomatic ties. In
this case, the rise of China does pose a challenge to the U.S., as
China has taken increasingly belligerent actions in the South and East
China Seas, and if the United States chooses to confront China in the
future, this will inevitably lead to greater regional instability.

Either way, this will require Australia Defense Force (ADF) policies
to support allies in high-level contingencies. The Australian
government would prefer to maintain the status-quo with its present
alliance, but it might respond to future developments in the Asian
region by shifting the country’s strategic defense policy and the
ADF’s corresponding orientation. Geopolitical Monitor

****
**** Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed
****

The historic IT disaster known as the Obamacare web site has been of
intense interest to me, since I've been a Senior Software Engineer for
decades, and I have personally participated in, witnessed, and
reported on (as a technology reporter) a number of IT disasters. But
even so, the size of the Obamacare web site catastrophe on October 1
still takes my breath away.

When I first heard, shortly after October 1, that there was 500
million lines of code in Healthcare.gov, I quickly rejected that
figure, because it's impossible.

Going back to the development of IBM's System/360 operating system, as
described in Fred Brooks' classic book, The Mythical Man-Month, the
average programmer on the project wrote six lines of code per day. Of
course, every programmer writes a lot more than that on SOME days, but
on other days he writes zero lines of code, since he's doing testing
or debugging or rewriting or documenting. So for System/360, it all
averaged out to six lines per day per programmer.

So let's say that the Obamacare programmers were much better than
that, and wrote 100 lines of code per day average. Let's say that
there were 1000 programmers. And let's say that, over the three year
period, there were about 660 business days. Then, with those generous
assumptions, you get 100*1000*660 = 66,000,000 lines of code. It's
simply impossible to reach 500,000,000.

And yet, the 500 million figure is apparently true. I've heard it
dozens of times in the last month, and no one is denying it.
Healthcare.gov apparently really does have 500 million lines of code.
How is that possible?

I get a picture in my mind of 1,000 monkeys sitting a computers typing
code, without worrying about whether or not it works. Given the size
of the catastrophe, some variation of that must have happened.

More important than that, a code base that size is unsupportable.
Health services is a rapidly changing field, and every time there's
some kind of process or rule change, it will take an army of
programmers to make all the necessary changes in the code base. And
that assumes that all the bugs have been fixed, which is far from
true. Healthcare.gov will not be fully functional at any time in the
foreseeable future, if ever.

On October 1, Healthcare.gov had 500 million lines of code, and could
handle six (6) simultaneous users. Facebook.com has 20 million lines
of code, and handles millions of simultaneous users.

Then there's the cost. Healthcare.gov should have cost $5-10 million
to implement. Take into account government corruption and
incompetence, it should have cost $10-25 million. Instead, it cost
$300-600 million -- let's say $500 million. How do we get to that
figure? Well, assume 1000 programmers are paid an average of $100 per
hour ($200,000 per year) for 8 hours per day for 660 business days:
$100*1000*8*660 = $528 million. So at least that figure makes sense
-- as long as you understand that the Obama administration poured half
a billion dollars into the pockets of his cronies and supporters, and
got exactly what he deserved with Healthcare.gov.

****
**** How could President Obama have been so wrong?
****

There have been numerous reports that the Obama administration had
been informed many times, including by McKinsey & Co. in March, that
Healthcare.gov was in serious trouble. And yet, just two weeks ago,
on November 19, President Barack Obama said:

<QUOTE>"I was not informed directly that the web site would
not be working as the way it was supposed to. Had I been
informed, I would not be going out saying, 'Boy, this is gonna be
great.' You know - I'm accused of a lot of things, but I don't
think I'm stupid enough to go around saying, 'This is gonna be
like shopping on Amazon or Travelocity' a week before the web site
opens if I thought it wasn't gonna work. So, clearly we and I did
not have enough awareness about the problems in the web
site."<END QUOTE>

And so, since he posed the question of how he couldn't have been that
stupid, let's try to find an answer.

Once again, I have a number of personal experiences that relate to
this, and the main one I'd like to relate is the most bizarre day of
my professional life.

In 1985, I was doing contract programming for Northrop Corp.,
developing embedded software for munitions guidance systems. The
project manager had to be reassigned, and I became acting manager.
After being in this position for 2-3 weeks, it was clear to me that
the whole project was in trouble, would slip at least three months. I
told this to the program manager, and he nearly freaked out.

I was then pulled into one meeting after another, and met high-level
managers that I never knew existed. Their conclusion apparently was
that I was full of crap, and they decided to fire me, but they weren't
sure, so they decided to let me stay on until the release date, and
then they would fire me.

About a week before the release date, there was a meeting in the lab,
where the lead programmer was to demonstrate the embedded system to
the Corporate VP. I attended this demo, but I was ordered just to
stand there and keep my mouth shut. So I stood back, leaned against
the wall, and just watched the proceedings.

The lead programmer gave his demo, and the VP ooohed and ahhhhed. He
then asked, "And this will be ready for release next Monday?" The
lead programmer said, "Yes, it will be ready on Monday." The other
managers in the room also said, "Monday."

I was holding my breath through all this. I couldn't believe what I
was hearing. Either I was crazy or all of them were crazy. That's
why I call this the most bizarre day of my life.

Well anyway, to make a long story short, the project was not ready for
release the following Monday. It slipped six months. I wasn't fired
because one Silent generation manager went around and told everyone
that "Xenakis was right, so he shouldn't be fired." So I wasn't
fired.

I've had several other experiences like that, except that usually I
was fired, even though I was always right. In 1992, I was working as
a contract programmer for Fidelity. I did a little unit testing, and
wrote a memo to my manager, listing numerous problems why the project
was in trouble, saying that it would slip at least six months. The
manager was so furious that he had smoke coming out of his ears. He
fired me. The project crashed completely a couple of months later. I
was right, and he was wrong, though I paid the price.

In a previous article ( "14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster"
) I related a 2005 experience where I was fired for
telling my management that the $10 million project currently under
development would slip 6-12 months. I was fired and out of a salary,
while the dozens of incompetent engineers kept collecting salaries for
over another year, at which time the disastrous project was canceled
completely.

So there's really nothing about the Healthcare.gov disaster that's a
surprise to me (except the 500 million lines of code). I've been a
Senior Software Engineer for a long time, and I've worked on over 100
projects, so I've seen disasters. The only thing that's different
about Healthcare.gov is the breathtaking size of criminality of the
Obama administration in wasting so much money on cronies and
corruption, and the breathtaking size of the resulting well-deserved
disaster.

It's now December 1, the scheduled date of the Healthcare.gov
re-launch. Based on news reports, the following has been done:

• The screens will be changed to be prettier and more fun.
  
• All the small business functionality has been removed and
  postponed for a year.
  
• All the functionality for online payments has been removed,
  which means that customers will have to be billed by mail by
  the insurance companies.
  
• The security issues, including the exposure to identity
  theft, have not been dealt with at all.
  
• According to some reports, the web site is only 60% completed,
  even after 500 million lines of code and $500 million. The cost of
  the web site could run into the billions.
  
• Users will be encouraged to go online at "off-peak hours," to
  keep the web site from being overloaded.
  
• The administration is licensing other web sites to share the load.
  GoHealth.com and TheHealthSherpa.com have been
  named in news reports.

With regard to the billing being done by mail, as I understand it, you
have to miss three payments in a row to be dropped off your Obamacare
plan. If that turns out to be true, then what you can do, Dear
Reader, is sign up for an Obamacare plan, not pay your bill, and then
sign up with a different insurance company in three months. However,
your doctor won't be happy to see you, since the insurance company
won't reimburse him for treating you.

****
**** The future of Obamacare
****

Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in
2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as
a proposal of economic insanity,

because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price
controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy.

In an article on July 5 ( "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse"
), I explained in greater detail
why Obamacare would fail for the same reasons as Nixon's wage-price
controls and Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in the 1950s.

A couple of people criticized me for making the comparison to Mao's
Great Leap Forward. However, Mao's Great Leap Forward contained
exactly the same elements as Nixon's wage-price controls and Obamacare
-- attempts to control a huge market by passing a law, which makes
just as much sense as trying to control the weather by passing a law.

But if the elements are the same, there are major differences in
degree. Mao carried those elements much farther, and the results were
commensurately more disastrous, with the deaths of tens of millions of
people. Nothing like that happened with Nixon's controls, or is
expected to happen with Obamacare, where the "only" result is a
disastrous economic and medical crisis, with the destruction
of much of the medical services marketplace.

Still, there's one more lesson to be learned from Mao's Great Leap
Forward. When things started going wrong in early 1959, Mao was
warned by numerous experts. Instead of heeding those warnings
immediately, which might have saved ten or twenty million lives, Mao
had the experts fired or executed. We're now at a very dangerous time
when the economic calamities of Obamacare are obvious to almost
everyone, and are being pointed out by many people. But instead of
heeding the warnings, President Obama is ignoring them, and
threatening political opponents with such things as further IRS
audits. The longer President Obama continues in this way, the more
damage he does. Obamacare will not cause the tens of millions of
deaths that Mao's Great Leap Forward did, but it's now quite possible
that Obamacare will be the direct cause of hundreds or even thousands
of deaths. Investors Business Daily


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, China, India, Japan,
Obamacare, Healthcare.gov, Fred Brooks, Mythical Man-Month,
System/360, McKinsey & Co., Northrop Corp., Fidelity,
Richard Nixon, Wage-price controls, Mao Zedong,
Great Leap Forward

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*** 2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum
• Thai-Chinese versus Thai-Thai
• Thailand's generational Awakening era
• European Troika cancels bailout negotiations with Greece - again

****
**** Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum
****


Violent anti-government riots outside Government House in Bangkok on Sunday (Reuters)

On Sunday, the 8th day of anti-government protests, about 30,000
"yellow shirt" rioters occupied government buildings and hurled stones
and petrol bombs at police, who fired back tear gas. At least four
people have been killed and dozens injured. On Sunday evening, the
anti-government yellow shirt leader Suthep Thaugsuban met with Prime
Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and gave her a 48 hour ultimatum "to
return power to the people," whatever that's supposed to mean. There
was no explanation of what would happen on Tuesday, after the 48 hours
pass.

Of all the countries that I've been writing about in the last ten
years, this has been the wildest political story, involving
two ethnic groups.

On the one side, you have the market-dominant "yellow shirt"
light-skinned elites, also called "Thai-Chinese," since almost all of
them are descendents of Chinese, comprising about 1/4 of the
population, living mostly around the capital city Bangkok.

On the other side, you have the "red shirt" dark-skinned lower class
indigenous people, also called "Thai-Thai," comprising about 3/4 of
the population, living mostly in the northern regions of Thailand, but
who come to Bangkok mostly to work in menial jobs serving the
Thai-Chinese. Bangkok Post

****
**** Thai-Chinese versus Thai-Thai
****

The mathematics of the situation are pretty clear: The Thai-Thai are
going to win every election if they stick together. And the person
who got them to stick together was the colorful and charismatic
Thaksin Shinawatra, who was elected prime minister in 2001, and
re-elected in 2005. As Thaksin's government adopted economic policies
that favored the Thai-Thai, at the expense of the elite Thai-Chinese,
the political fault line became sharp. The army, favoring the elites,
staged a bloodless coup, overthrowing the Thaksin government in 2006.
Thaksin left the country, and for a while became the owner of the
Manchester City Football (soccer) Club, one of the major sports clubs
in Britain. Later, he went into self-imposed exile in Dubai, where he
is now.

There were new elections, and a Thaksin ally, Samak Sundaravej, became
prime minister, but a high court sided with the elites and removed him
from office because for years he had hosted a televised cooking show.
(I'm not joking.)

There were new elections, and another Thaksin ally, Somchai Wongsawat,
became prime minister, but he was thrown out of office by massive
anti-government protests and riots by the yellow shirt Thai-Chinese.

A Thai-Chinese ally, Abhisit Vejjajiva, finally was prime minister.
But then in 2010 there were massive anti-government protests and riots
by the red shirt Thai-Thai. ( "24-May-10 News -- Les Miserables of Thailand at a turning point"
)

If all of that isn't incredible enough, what happened next was even
more incredible: Under the long-distance guidance of Thaksin, his
sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the next election to become prime
minister, promising to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes. ( "4-Jul-11 World View -- Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively"
)

So now things have flipped back the other way again, and the
yellow-shirt elites are rioting and protesting against the Yingluck
government. Suthep Thaugsuban, the leader of the Thai-Chinese riots,
has issued that 48-hour ultimatum, but surely he must realize that if
he forces Yingluck to leave office, then the Thai-Thai will just win
another election. So what does Suthep mean when he says he wants "to
return power to the people"? It may mean that he wants to take power
by force. BBC and Time

****
**** Thailand's generational Awakening era
****

Thailand is following a typical pattern for a country in a
generational Awakening era, following an internal civil war.
Thailand's last generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing
fields" civil war that climaxed in 1979. Although that war occurred
on Cambodian soil, the Thai were heavily involved in a supportive role
to both sides.

In the typical pattern, the two ethnic groups have a tense peace
during the generational Recovery Era that immediately follows the
climax of the crisis war. We're seeing a Recover Era today in Sri
Lanka, following the civil war between the Sinhalese and the Tamils.
During the Awakening era, political conflict between the two groups
turns to low-level violence. In the years that follow, periods of
violence alternate with periods of peaceful coexistence following the
signing of a series of peace treaties. Each time a peace treaty is
broken, the violence that follows is worse than the last time.
Finally, 50-70 years after the climax of the last crisis war, there is
another full-fledged civil war, and history repeats itself.

****
**** European Troika cancels bailout negotiations with Greece - again
****

The "Troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European
Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) -- have canceled plans to return to Athens on
Monday to resume evaluation of progress on implementing the austerity
commitments that Greece has made to qualify for the 240 billion euro
bailout already pledged. The latest tranche of that bailout payment
has been held up for weeks because Greece still has to find another
1.2 billion euros of savings in 2014. The Troika would like Greece to
lay off more public workers, foreclose on more houses with delinquent
mortgages, and sell off the government-owned weapons manufacturer
Hellenic Defense Systems (EAS). With negotiations put off again,
Greek officials are now hoping to reach agreement with the Troika in
time for the December 18 Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance
ministers. Kathimerini and Greek Reporter



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Thai-Thai, Thai-Chinese,
red shirts, yellow shirts, Suthep Thaugsuban,
Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra,
Samak Sundaravej, Somchai Wongsawat, Abhisit Vejjajiva,
Greece, Troika, EU, IMF, ECB,
Hellenic Defense Systems, EAS

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*** 3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved
• Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

****
**** What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved
****


Thailand's PM Yingluck Shinawatra

In yesterday's report, "2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum"
I indicated that I was puzzled about
what the anti-government Thai-Chinese activist Suthep Thaugsuban
wanted, when he said that he wants "to return power to the people."
If he meant the resignation of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the
result would be a new election, and Thai-Thai indigenous people, who
make up the vast majority of the population, would simply elect a new
Thaksin Shinawatra ally.

Well, on Monday the solution to the conundrum was revealed. Suthep is
demanding that Yingluck resign, and that a new "People's Council"
select the next prime minister. Presumably, this People's Council
would be packed with Thai-Chinese proponents. This is the only way
the indigenous people can be defeated in an election. However, it
doesn't seem to me that this will "return power to the people" in any
way.

Yingluck responded: "Anything I can do to make people happy, I am
willing to do... but as prime minister, what I can do must be under
the constitution."

Thailand is in a very dangerous situation. The market-dominant
light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite do not wish to give up any power, but
they're vastly outnumbered by the dark-skinned Thai-Thai who do most
of the menial labor. If Suthep succeeds in getting his "People's
Council," and he controls the election of the next PM, then expect a
new wave of anti-government protests again in a few months, this time
by the "red shirt" Thai-Thai. Bangkok Post

****
**** Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation
****

At least 100,000 anti-government protesters packed Independence Square
("the Maidan") in Kiev, Ukraine, on Sunday, demanding the resignation
of President Viktor Yanukovich. More than 200 people were hurt when
police used tear gas and flash grenades, after some marchers tried to
storm a government building. Video has emerged showing police
brutally beating protesters and journalists with clubs. The riots
continued through the night and into Monday evening, forcing riot
police to line up to protect the office of the president.

The riots were triggered when Yanukovich did a highly visible
flip-flop on signing a trade agreement with the European Union,
evidently because of pressure by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, as
we reported
two weeks ago.

The riots are reminiscent of the "Orange Revolution" of 2004, when the
same Viktor Yanukovich was forced to leave office by the same kinds of
riots, when hundreds of thousands of people demanded his resignation.
(See "East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two"
from 2004.)

What the 2004 riots and the 2013 riots have in common is that they are
a clash between two ethnic groups. The majority of the population are
ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the western part
of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupying the
east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent there by
Stalin after World War II in order to "Russify" Ukraine.


East/West Ukraine split in the 2004 Presidential vote that led to the Orange Revolution. (BBC)

I took another look at my 2004 article on the Orange Revolution. It
contains the map shown above of the results of the 2004 presidential
election. The indigenous Ukrainian candidate (Yushchenko) won in the
western Ukrainian provinces, while Yanukovich won in the pro-Russian
eastern and southern provinces.

Yanukovich had promised repeatedly that he would sign the association
agreement with the EU, and Ukrainians were eagerly anticipating what
they imagined (probably unrealistically) as a big economic boost from
having new European markets from their products. But Putin threatened
to close off Russia to many Ukrainian exports, which would have hurt
Ukraine more than they would have gained from the EU asociation.
Putin desperately wants Ukraine to remain within Russia's sphere of
influence, and particularly wants Ukraine to join Russia's "Customs
Union," whose other members so far are Belarus and Kazakhstan.
BBC and
Jamestown and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra,
Suthep Thaugsuban, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich,
Russia, European Union, Customs Union

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved
• Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

****
**** What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved
****


Thailand's PM Yingluck Shinawatra

In yesterday's report, "2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum"
I indicated that I was puzzled about
what the anti-government Thai-Chinese activist Suthep Thaugsuban
wanted, when he said that he wants "to return power to the people."
If he meant the resignation of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the
result would be a new election, and Thai-Thai indigenous people, who
make up the vast majority of the population, would simply elect a new
Thaksin Shinawatra ally.

Well, on Monday the solution to the conundrum was revealed. Suthep is
demanding that Yingluck resign, and that a new "People's Council"
select the next prime minister. Presumably, this People's Council
would be packed with Thai-Chinese proponents. This is the only way
the indigenous people can be defeated in an election. However, it
doesn't seem to me that this will "return power to the people" in any
way.

Yingluck responded: "Anything I can do to make people happy, I am
willing to do... but as prime minister, what I can do must be under
the constitution."

Thailand is in a very dangerous situation. The market-dominant
light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite do not wish to give up any power, but
they're vastly outnumbered by the dark-skinned Thai-Thai who do most
of the menial labor. If Suthep succeeds in getting his "People's
Council," and he controls the election of the next PM, then expect a
new wave of anti-government protests again in a few months, this time
by the "red shirt" Thai-Thai. Bangkok Post

****
**** Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation
****

At least 100,000 anti-government protesters packed Independence Square
("the Maidan") in Kiev, Ukraine, on Sunday, demanding the resignation
of President Viktor Yanukovich. More than 200 people were hurt when
police used tear gas and flash grenades, after some marchers tried to
storm a government building. Video has emerged showing police
brutally beating protesters and journalists with clubs. The riots
continued through the night and into Monday evening, forcing riot
police to line up to protect the office of the president.

The riots were triggered when Yanukovich did a highly visible
flip-flop on signing a trade agreement with the European Union,
evidently because of pressure by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, as
we reported
two weeks ago.

The riots are reminiscent of the "Orange Revolution" of 2004, when the
same Viktor Yanukovich was forced to leave office by the same kinds of
riots, when hundreds of thousands of people demanded his resignation.
(See "East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two"
from 2004.)

What the 2004 riots and the 2013 riots have in common is that they are
a clash between two ethnic groups. The majority of the population are
ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the western part
of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupying the
east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent there by
Stalin after World War II in order to "Russify" Ukraine.


East/West Ukraine split in the 2004 Presidential vote that led to the Orange Revolution. (BBC)

I took another look at my 2004 article on the Orange Revolution. It
contains the map shown above of the results of the 2004 presidential
election. The indigenous Ukrainian candidate (Yushchenko) won in the
western Ukrainian provinces, while Yanukovich won in the pro-Russian
eastern and southern provinces.

Yanukovich had promised repeatedly that he would sign the association
agreement with the EU, and Ukrainians were eagerly anticipating what
they imagined (probably unrealistically) as a big economic boost from
having new European markets from their products. But Putin threatened
to close off Russia to many Ukrainian exports, which would have hurt
Ukraine more than they would have gained from the EU asociation.
Putin desperately wants Ukraine to remain within Russia's sphere of
influence, and particularly wants Ukraine to join Russia's "Customs
Union," whose other members so far are Belarus and Kazakhstan.
BBC and
Jamestown and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra,
Suthep Thaugsuban, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich,
Russia, European Union, Customs Union

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Off topic John but I was wondering if you thought the Obamacare mess and the building of an anti Obama political wave in 2014 as the beginning of a Regeneracy?

Originally Posted by Weave

> Off topic John but I was wondering if you thought the Obamacare
> mess and the building of an anti Obama political wave in 2014 as
> the beginning of a Regeneracy?

The regeneracy is not a trend that gathers steam over a period of
months or years. It's caused by one or more specific events that
cause widespread panic in the population and trigger a panicked
response out of existential fear for the society and its way of life.

Possible candidates for the next regeneracy event are:
- A major terrorist act on American soil
- A major military loss overseas
- Preemptive war by China

A major worldwide financial panic and crash may be a regeneracy event,
but it's more likely that such an event will destabilize many
countries and lead to a series of events that in turn will lead to one
of events listed above.

The test for whether an event is a regeneracy event is whether it
unifies the country behind the president. Obamacare is definitely not
doing that.

*** 4-Dec-13 World View -- Vice President Joe Biden backs Japan as he heads for China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vice President Joe Biden backs Japan as he heads for China
• North Korean government purge signals generational change
• Gun sales and gun patents surge thanks to Obama's gun campaign
• The question is, which lies can you live with?

****
**** Vice President Joe Biden backs Japan as he heads for China
****


Joe Biden and Shinzo Abe, meeting Tuesday in Tokyo (AP)

As tensions continue to be high after the recent announcement by China
of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) encompassing much of the
East China Sea, including regions belonging to Japan, American vice
president Joe Biden is renewing the U.S. commitment to Japan. The
Chinese are demanding that any aircraft entering the ADIZ must provide
flight plans and details to China's military in advance, or risk
encountering "defensive measures" from China's military. American
passenger planes are complying with the demands to avoid an incident
that would risk passengers' lives, but American warplanes are entering
the ADIZ on a daily basis without complying. (See "30-Nov-13 World View -- China vs U.S. air confrontations are now a daily occurrence"
)

Meeting Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe, Biden said the
following:

<QUOTE>"The U.S. is deeply concerned by the attempt to
unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea. This
action has raised regional tension and increased the risk of
accident and miscalculation.

The world should not forget that our alliances have been critical
to the stability that has made this region’s remarkable progress
possible. And I told the prime minister that we will remain
steadfast in our alliance commitment."<END QUOTE>

China Daily, the Chinese Communist Party's organ, responded
to Biden as follows, in an article entitled "Facts for
Biden's reference":

<QUOTE>"If the US is truly committed to lowering tensions in
the region, it must first stop acquiescing to Tokyo's dangerous
brinkmanship. It must stop emboldening belligerent Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe to constantly push the envelope of Japan's
encroachments and provocations.

Most important of all, Biden needs to be reminded that Japan holds
the key to peacefully solving the East China Sea dispute, because
it is the Abe administration's recalcitrant denial of the
existence of a dispute that has prevented Beijing and Tokyo from
conducting meaningful communication and crisis control. From the
very beginning, Beijing has demonstrated a consistent preference
for shelving differences."<END QUOTE>

Japan Times and China Daily

****
**** North Korean government purge signals generational change
****

South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) say that it's likely
that Jang Song-thaek, the elderly uncle of the child dictator
Kim Jong-un, has been removed from power, and that two of his closest
associates were executed in public last month, for corruption and
activities that countered the stance of the ruling Workers' Party of
Korea (WPK).

It's almost impossible to figure out what's going on in North Korea,
but it's being suggested that this is a major purge that will result
in a generational change. From the beginning when Kim Jong-un came to
power, Jang has been the adviser and moderating influence who would
help guide Kim as he gained experience. The purge could mean a major
period of instability for North Korea, and the disappearance of Jang
could mean that there's no one around to keep the child dictator from
doing something really stupid. Yonhap (Seoul) and Reuters

****
**** Gun sales and gun patents surge thanks to Obama's gun campaign
****

Gun manufacturers are reporting a 30-50% surge in firearms sales in
2013 over 2012. Furthermore, the surge in sales and profits is
motivating research into better firearms, resulting in a surge of
gun-related patents, the highest since 1977. Recent patents are for
voice-command shooting, rifle scopes and a new trigger system.

President Obama and his anti-gun campaigns have triggered a deep well
of fury among millions of gun owners nationwide. People on the left
that I've discussed this with do not have a clue how deep these
feelings go, and how angry gun owners are for being blamed and
punished for something that is demonstrably not their fault.

As I've suggested in the past, the National Rifle Association (NRA)
should really give President Obama an award for his spectacular
success in helping the gun industry, something that the gun industry
could never quite do for itself. Bloomberg

****
**** The question is, which lies can you live with?
****

I love this.

This is from L.Z. Granderson, a strong supporter of President Obama,
on Obama's handling of Obamacare:

<QUOTE>"All Americans know politicians lie. The question is,
which lies can you live with? And, time and time again, Americans
have said we can deal with the lies that President Obama tells us
because we believe in his heart, he has the best interest for the
American people."<END QUOTE>

This reminds me of the statement that I quoted many times from retired
Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Jüncker during one of Greece's
financial crises: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." I guess
President Obama thinks it's VERY serious. Real Clear Politics


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Joe Biden, Shinzo Abe,
China, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ,
South Korea, National Intelligence Service, NIS,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Jang Song-thaek,
National Rifle Association, NRA,
L.Z. Granderson, Jean-Claude Jüncker

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John, on this very forum I have seen gun owners dismissed as "gun nuts."

Originally Posted by TimWalker

> John, on this very forum I have seen gun owners dismissed as "gun
> nuts."

Well, when I want to understand the difference between Liberals and
Conservatives, I always remember the old saying: Liberals think that
Conservatives are evil, while Conservatives think that Liberals are
stupid.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Well, when I want to understand the difference between Liberals and
Conservatives, I always remember the old saying: Liberals think that
Conservatives are evil, while Conservatives think that Liberals are
stupid.

I think that's now reversed. Most Liberals think Conservatives are stupid, and most Conservatives think Liberals are evil.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> I think that's now reversed. Most Liberals think Conservatives
> are stupid, and most Conservatives think Liberals are
> evil.

Or, maybe it's gone all the way: Liberals think Conservatives are evil
and stupid, and Conservatives think Liberals are evil and stupid.
That's more like it these days.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Or, maybe it's gone all the way: Liberals think Conservatives are evil
and stupid, and Conservatives think Liberals are evil and stupid.
That's more like it these days.

It could even divide on a different line entirely, where a person representing the opposite poliical pole is stupid, if you know them, or evil, if they're strangers.

*** 5-Dec-13 World View -- Hezbollah commander assassinated in increasingly violent Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Lebanon's army takes control of Tripoli
• Hezbollah commander assassinated in increasingly violent Lebanon
• Extremism-related crimes spiking in Russia's North Caucasus
• Der Spiegel predicts a stock market and real estate crash

****
**** Lebanon's army takes control of Tripoli
****


Map of Tripoli, Lebanon, showing the two districts (Shia/Alawite versus Sunni), separated by Syria Street, that have been fighting (BBC)

Lebanon's government has ordered that Tripoli be placed under army
control for six months. The army is charged with stopping the proxy
war that's going on in Tripoli between Shia/Alawite and Sunni citizens
who are, respectively, siding for and against Bashar al-Assad. At
least 100 people have been killed this year, mostly in gunfights
between the two sects, and the number has surged recently. Al-Jazeera and BBC

****
**** Hezbollah commander assassinated in increasingly violent Lebanon
****

Hezbollah commander Hassan al-Laqqis was shot to death by gunmen with
silencers as he arrived home late on Tuesday evening in Beirut,
Lebanon. This was a new shock for the Shia terrorist militia
organization, because al-Laqqis was supposed to be well protected from
such attacks. Hezbollah reflexively blamed Israel for the
assassination, though Israeli officials have denied having anything to
do with it.

Since April 30, when Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad gave a
televised speech committing Hezbollah's soldiers to enter Syria and
fight on the side of Syria's Shia/Alawite genocidal monster president
Bashar al-Assad, sectarian (Sunni versus Shia) has been surging
throughout the Mideast. (See "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast"
)

It was just two weeks ago that two suicide bombers attacked the
Iranian embassy in Beirut where it was also supposed to be
super-secure. In that case as well, Iran reflexively blamed Israel
("The Islamic Republic of Iran takes the Zionists and their
mercenaries responsible for this action."), but since then, both Iran
and Hezbollah have acknowledged that the perpetrators were Sunni
jihadists, possibly funded and supported by Saudi Arabia, who have
essentially declared war on Hezbollah since their April 30
announcement. ( "20-Nov-13 World View -- Lebanon bombing sharply escalates sectarian Mideast conflict"
) It's most likely that Sunni jihadists were the
perpetrators of Tuesday evening's assassination, and it's possible
that the assassination is related to the surging violence in Tripoli.
Daily Star (Beirut) and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Extremism-related crimes spiking in Russia's North Caucasus
****

Russian officials are reporting that the number of extremism-related
crimes in the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces, rose by 40%
in 2013, compared to 2012, with the greatest increase in Dagestan.
Over 100 servicemen died and more than 300 were wounded in attacks in
the first nine months of 2013, while over 200 militants were killed
and more than 250 arrested, according to Russian government figures.
According to a prosecutor:

<QUOTE>"Unemployment and the absence of stable sources of
income for a significant portion of the population result in
citizens’ involvement in bandit groups of extremist origin and
also create a breeding ground for attempts to use ethnic tensions
to fuel ethnic strife."<END QUOTE>

Russian officials blame unfavorable economic conditions and rigid clan
systems for the Islamization and radicalization of young people.
Jamestown

****
**** Der Spiegel predicts a stock market and real estate crash
****

Der Spiegel is possibly the most mainstream of the mainstream news
media in Europe. It's well to the left of center, and usually
applauds even the most dangerous radical policies advocated by far
leftists like Paul Krugman. But today, Der Spiegel is predicting a
crash:

<QUOTE>"Central banks around the world are pumping trillions
into the economy. The goal is to stimulate growth, but their
actions are also driving up prices in the real estate and equities
markets. The question is no longer whether there will be a crash,
but when."<END QUOTE>

By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (December 2) morning was 18.72, which is
astronomical by historic standards, indicating that stocks are far
overpriced, and the stock market bubble is worse than ever. Der Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hassan al-Laqqis,
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Iran, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, North Caucasus, Dagestan, Der Spiegel

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*** 6-Dec-13 World View -- France reverts to neo-colonialism, returns to Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France reverts to neo-colonialism, returns to Central African Republic
• Attacks on churches and mosques in Russia on the rise
• U.S. prosecutors charge 49 Russian diplomats with health care fraud

****
**** France reverts to neo-colonialism, returns to Central African Republic
****


People stand near bodies found lying in a mosque and in its surrounding streets in the Central African capital Bangui on Thursday, after overnight violence (AFP)

Fearing a massive genocide, the 15-member U.N. Security Council on
Thursday voted unanimously to allow French and African forces "to take
all necessary measures," including military action, to protect
citizens and restore order in the Central African Republic. Sectarian
violence between Christians and Muslims has been building since March
of last year, when a Muslim rebel coalition called Séléka overthrew
President Francois Bozize and installed their own leader Michel
Djotodia as interim president. However, the political coup didn't end
the violence. Séléka continue attacking perceived Christian
supporters of the ousted president, and Christian self-defense
militias have sprung up and are launching retaliatory attacks,
sometimes against Muslim civilians.

France's President François Hollande has been leading the effort to
get U.N. Security Council approval for military action, and France is
set to increase its fighting force in C.A.R. to at least 1,000
soldiers, at a time when it has sent thousands of soldiers to Mali,
earlier this year.

The interventions in the two former French colonies are raising
questions over whether France is slipping back to interventionist,
neo-colonial policies known as "Françafrique" -- meddling in the
affairs of its former colonies. But the threat of genocide in
C.A.R. is highly emotional for France, which was accused of supporting
the Hutu regime that massacred the Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994. In any
case, France does not want to be accused of looking the other way as
Muslims and Christians tear each other apart in the C.A.R. France 24 and NPR

****
**** Attacks on churches and mosques in Russia on the rise
****

The mutual xenophobia between Christians and Muslims in Russia is
resulting in a recent sharp increase in extremist acts, particularly
in the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces. A negative image
of Muslims has been firmly established in Russia. A man with a beard
or a woman wearing the hijab are increasingly perceived in society as
extremists, and that attitude is creating a backlash among Muslims.
Attacks on churches and mosques have been on the increase. For
example in Tatarstan, there was an arson attack on a mosque in August,
followed by eight reprisal arson attacks on Churches. The Russian
Orthodox Church is contributing to the problem by trying to extend its
influence by building churches in mainly Muslim regions, where the
churches are not wanted, and where there is almost no attendance
anyway.

Historically, for centuries, there have been three regions where the
Christian and Muslim worlds have had their bloodiest and most
genocidal confrontations: the Caucasus, the Crimea and the Balkans
(three regions which, like the Bronx and the Hague, cannot be properly
referenced without the word "the"). Josef Stalin was particularly
ruthless towards the Muslims in the Caucasus, with mass executions and
mass forced relocations during and after World War II. Now, as the
generations of survivors of those genocidal actions have all
disappeared, tensions are growing among younger generations of
Christians and Muslims, and the Caucasus is headed for a new major war
between the two groups. Jamestown

****
**** U.S. prosecutors charge 49 Russian diplomats with health care fraud
****

U.S. prosecutors have charged 49 current and former Russian diplomats
and their family members with participating in a scheme to
fraudulently get $1.5 million in Medicaid health benefits by lying
about their income. The charges say the defendants obtained letters
to prove their false incomes from officials at the Russian
U.N. mission, including a former counselor and a former second
secretary, as well as from former top officials at the Consulate
General of the Russian Federation in New York and the Trade
Representation of the Russian Federation in the USA. The diplomats
have diplomatic immunity and so cannot be arrested, though they can be
asked to leave the country. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Central African Republic,
François Hollande, Séléka, Mali, Rwanda,
Russia, Caucasus, Russian Orthodox Church

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*** 7-Dec-13 World View -- Bodies pile up in Central African Republic as French arrive

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bodies pile up in Central African Republic as French arrive
• Biden in S. Korea rejects China's air defense zone (ADIZ)
• 'Al-Qaeda in Syria' has become official

****
**** Bodies pile up in Central African Republic as French arrive
****


French troops in armored vehicle in Bangui on Friday (Reuters)

Hundreds of bodies are littering the streets of Bangui, the capital of
the Central African Republic, as French troops began to arrive on
Friday in their former colony. France's deployment was sped up out of
fear that the the situation would completely spiral out of control.
Some 400,000 people have already fled their homes to escape the
fighting. The fighting began last year when a Muslim group of
militias called Séléka staged a coup, installed a new president, and
then continued attacking Christians. The Christians have now formed
their own "anti-Balaka" militias. The French troops, along with
troops from the African Union, are patrolling in Bangui, but there are
no troops to control fighting in other towns. According to the CIA
Factbook, the religious breakdown of C.A.R. is: indigenous beliefs
35%, Protestant 25%, Roman Catholic 25%, Muslim 15%. Reuters

****
**** Biden in S. Korea rejects China's air defense zone (ADIZ)
****

U.S. vice president Joe Biden, in statements made during a visit to
South Korea on Friday, said that America always keeps its promises,
and that the U.S. was rejecting China's announced air defense
identification zone (ADIZ):

<QUOTE>"I want to make one thing absolutely clear. President
Obama's decision to rebalance to the Pacific basin is not in
question. ..

The United States never says anything it does not do. [It has]
never been a good bet to bet against America ... and America will
continue to place its bet on South Korea."<END QUOTE>

This is kind of laughable, in view President Obama's huge flip-flops
in the Mideast, which many people are describing as outsourcing
America's foreign policy to Russia's president Vladimir Putin.

In a later statement, Biden said:

<QUOTE>"I was very clear we do not recognize the zone. It
will have no effect on America's operations. Just ask my
general. None. Zero."<END QUOTE>

Some Koreans are expressing concerns that the U.S. is softening
its position on this.

In another statement, Biden said that the U.S. would not tolerate
a nuclear North Korea. Once again, this is laughable, since
North Korea has been "nuclear" for several years.

In the meantime, the South Koreans have taken their own steps: They're
expanding their own ADIZ, and they're refusing to recognize China's
demands, sending warplanes and airlines into China's ADIZ without
notifying China's military. Yonhap (Seoul) and VOA

****
**** 'Al-Qaeda in Syria' has become official
****

Ayman al-Zawahiri and the main al-Qaeda leadership in
Afghanistan-Pakistan is declaring that Jabhat Al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda
linked fighters in Syria, is now an official part of al-Qaeda's global
network. Concurrently, al-Zawahiri is sending cadres of operatives to
Syria, to offer ideological guidance, military expertise and training,
organizational consultation, and so forth.

For months I've been reporting that Syria has become a magnet for
Sunni jihadists from regions as far away as Pakistan, Algeria and
Dagestan. This is the next step in that process, as Syria and Iraq
become a major center for jihadist activity in the Mideast.

And once again, I have to identify where the fault lies. Syria's
Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad is a genocidal monster who has
used heavy weapons and even chemical weapons to kill hundreds of
thousands of Sunni women, children and other civilians, and have
driven millions of people from their homes. Russia and Iran are
actively contributing to this genocide by supplying weapons and
soldiers to al-Assad. This has been an absolutely disastrous policy
by Russia and Iran, with the full support and cooperation of President
Barack Obama. Memri and
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
France, Séléka, anti-Balaka,
China, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ,
Joe Biden, North Korea, South Korea,
Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda in Syria, Jabhat Al-Nusra,
Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Iran

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*** 8-Dec-13 World View -- World trade agreement permits India to stockpile rice and wheat

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• World trade agreement permits India to stockpile rice and wheat
• France asks for help, as it becomes embroiled in C.A.R.'s war

****
**** World trade agreement permits India to stockpile rice and wheat
****


World Trade Organization president Roberto Azevedo (center) joins the other delegates in cheering their 'historic' agreement on Saturday in Bali

You never know what nonsense is going to come out of a meeting of 159
politicians like the meeting of the World Trade Organization in Bali
this week. In between sunnin' and surfin', the representatives of 159
companies came up with an agreement that WTO chief Roberto Azevedo
described as "historic," but which is little more than a list of
promises that will never be fulfilled. They had to come up with
something, because the WTO has accomplished exactly NOTHING since it
was founded in 1995, and people were saying that if another proposed
agreement collapsed, then it might mean the end of the WTO itself, and
we know that politicians don't want any bureaucracy to end, especially
one that sends them for paid vacations at top-notch resorts like Bali.
That's why WTO members roared and thumped desks as the deal was
approved.

Still, the major disagreement that had to be overcome was an
interesting one, having to do with "food security." India has a huge
population, including many who are hungry and in poverty, and so India
buys up rice and wheat and stockpiles it for times of need. But
according to WTO rules, stockpiling rice and wheat is a way of
subsidizing them, and any form of subsidy is against WTO rules.

There were other disagreements as well. Cuba, supported by Bolivia,
Nicaragua and Venezuela, had threatened to walk out of the talks
unless the agreement contained language condemning the 50-year-old
American embargo of Cuba.

In the end, all of those difficult problems were swept under the rug
and postponed. The deal that was signed calls on countries to lower
their tariffs and trade barriers, and when a country signed the
agreement, it was promise to do that ... some day. They're claiming
that this "historic" agreement will boost global trade and the world
economy by $1 trillion, but that's just the usual hot air. The
agreement does so little that we might imagine that at least it won't
do too much HARM to the global economy. In the meantime, the
politicians' paid vacations at Bali-like resorts have been saved, and
that's what's important. Times of India and Deutsche Welle

****
**** France asks for help, as it becomes embroiled in C.A.R.'s war
****

French troops continued to pour into Central African Republic on
Saturday, around concerns that the war between Muslim Séléka rebels
and Christian anti-Balaka rebels would turn into a full-scale
genocide. According to president François Hollande, France has 1600
troops in CAR by Saturday evening.

France sent 4,000 troops to Mali earlier this, in an operation
described as vital to keep Mali from become a new Afghanistan-style
stronghold for armed Islamist groups. The intervention in CAR is
described as a humanitarian operation designed to avoid thousands of
deaths in a bloody conflict that might resemble the genocide in Rwanda
in 1994.

Intervention in CAR promises to be very expensive, and Hollande is
requesting international aid. According to Hollande:

<QUOTE>"Europe can play its part. For Europe to ensure its
own defence, Africa must be able to ensure its own. Our interests
are linked. Terrorism knows no borders."<END QUOTE>

Hollande hopes that Britain, Germany and other European Union
countries will contribute, but so far they haven't expressed any
enthusiasm. However, the African Union has promised to increase the
size of its own force to 6,000, from its current level of 2,500. This
situation is showing all the signs of something that will get a lot
worse for a long time. AFP and BBC



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bali, World Trade Organization, WTO,
Roberto Azevedo, India, Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela,
Central African Republic, France, Séléka, anti-Balaka,
François Hollande, Mali, African Union

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*** 9-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev
• Jordan is elected to Saudi Arabia's rejected UN Security Council seat
• Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi gains in India's election

****
**** Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev
****


Top: Dec 1 picture of police guarding Lenin statue; bottom, Dec 8 picture of statue's destruction (AP)

For the second weekend in a row, hundreds of thousands of anti-Russian
Ukrainians filled Independence Square in Kiev to denounce pro-Russian
President Viktor Yanukovich's flip-flop and subsequent refusal to sign
a trade agreement with the European Union, instead succumbing to
pressure and extortion from Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who is
demanding that Ukraine join the Russian-led Customs Union.

On Sunday, the protesters performed the symbolic gesture of tearing
down the statue of Vladimir Lenin (Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov),
considered by many to be the father of Russian communism and a leader
of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. The statue was broken into pieces
with a large sledgehammer, and everyone in the crowd sought to take
home a prized "piece of Lenin." The move is certain to infuriate both
the largely Russian-speaking eastern half of Ukraine, as well as
officials in Moscow.

The leader of the pro-Russian Communist Party said:

<QUOTE>"Destroying the Lenin monument in Kiev is not just an
act of vandalism. It is a sign that organizers of the protests
are not for the European values, but rather for hate, fear and
destruction of the state of Ukraine."<END QUOTE>

There is growing concern that pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich
will invite Russian military forces into Ukraine, rather than allow
the anti-Russian protesters to perpetrate a coup. AP and CNN

****
**** Jordan is elected to Saudi Arabia's rejected UN Security Council seat
****

The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly on Friday to
give to Jordan the Security Council seat that Saudi Arabia had
rejected in October. ( "19-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia shocks U.N. by rejecting Security Council seat"
) The Saudi decision was
based on accusations of hypocrisy, allowing Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad to kill and displace million of civilians
with impunity, particularly after President Barack Obama's
flip-flop on Syria's chemical weapons.

Jordan generally agrees with Saudi Arabia on most issues, and so
Jordan is expected to follow the same policies on the Security
Council. However, there are now 600,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan,
putting an enormous strain on its resources, and so it's expected that
Jordan will cause the Security Council to focus more on the Syrian
refugee issue. AFP and Reuters

****
**** Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi gains in India's election
****

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made strong electoral gains in
Sunday's election, trouncing the ruling Congress Party headed by the
current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The elections for prime
minister will be held next year.

The BJP party leader is Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister"
) Hindu
nationalism is controversial in India because opponents associate it
with "Hindutva violence," originally targeting British colonizers, but
recently targeting Muslims. Modi himself became associated with
Hindutva violence in 2002, when he appeared to be complicit in
violence against Muslims. Hostility between the Hindu and Muslim
populations has been a growing trend since the 1970s, and Modi has
become extremely popular, either despite or because of his Hindutva
connection. Indian Express and The News (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Kiev, Viktor Yanukovich,
Vladimir Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Nations Security Council,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
India, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP,
Manmohan Singh, Congress Party, Hindutva violence

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*** 10-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. to help France in Central African Republic military intervention

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Immigrant issues explode over street riots in Singapore
• U.S. to help France in Central African Republic military intervention
• Vladimir Putin 'liquidates' Russia's Ria Novosti news agency

****
**** Immigrant issues explode over street riots in Singapore
****


Protester carries 'Singapore for Singaporeans' in large anti-immigrant rally in Singapore in February, 2013 (AFP)

A fatal accident killing a 33-year-old Indian immigrant who was
knocked down by a private bus has sparked a spontaneous large riot on
Monday in Singapore in the "Little India" section, which is mostly
populated by migrants from India and Bangladesh. Police arrested 27
people, mostly Indian nationals, among the 400 people who rioted.

These are the largest immigrant riots since the 1969, since there were
massive, bloody riots in Singapore. According to Deputy Prime
Minister Teo Chee Hean:

<QUOTE>"I want to make very clear that the government will
not tolerate such lawless behaviour. I have asked the police to
investigate the matter thoroughly and deal with all aspects of
this incident and all persons involved strictly, firmly and fairly
according to our law."<END QUOTE>

Rioting in Singapore is punishable by up to seven years in prison plus
caning. (Yes, caning.)

However, immigration is a continuing issue in the city-state. In
February, more than 4,000 indigenous Singaporeans staged a rally, one
of Singapore's largest ever. They were angered by a government
population white paper that showed that the population of immigrants
was growing much faster than the population of Singaporeans, thanks to
a rapidly declining birth rate.

According to the January, 2013, white paper:

<QUOTE>"Singaporeans form the core of our society and the
heart of our nation. To be a strong and cohesive society, we must
have a strong Singaporean core.

Strong families are the bedrock of our society, through which we
pass on our values and sense of belonging from one generation to
the next. We may have diverse geographical and ethnic backgrounds,
but we are all Singaporean because we share certain key values and
aspirations, including meritocracy, a fair and just society, and
respect for one another’s culture within a broad common space
where all interact and bond."<END QUOTE>

Channel News Asia (Singapore) and AFP 17-Feb-2013 and Singapore population white paper (PDF)

****
**** U.S. to help France in Central African Republic military intervention
****

The U.S. military will fly African Union troops into Central African
Republic, responding to a request by France. Two U.S. military C-17
aircraft will fly about 850 troops from Burundi into Central African
Republic by Tuesday. According to Pentagon spokesman Carl Woog, the
U.S. may provide additional military resources:

<QUOTE>"The United States is joining the international
community in this effort because of our belief that immediate
action is required to avert a humanitarian and human rights
catastrophe."<END QUOTE>

The situation in C.A.R. is quickly worsening, according to aid group
Mercy Corps which, like all non-governmental organizations, wants more
money from the U.S. and other "wealthy" nations:

<QUOTE>"The situation in Central African Republic is
declining rapidly in terms of security, which is leading to a
humanitarian crisis that will continue to augment and become
larger in scale unless the international community intervenes
now."<END QUOTE>

More than 400,000 people have been displaced since so-called Séléka
militias -- many of them Muslims from neighboring Chad and Sudan --
seized power in March, unleashing a wave of rapes, massacres and
looting on the majority Christian population. The Christians have
formed so-called anti-Balaka militias and are performing revenge
attacks on Muslims. Some 400 people have died since Thursday in the
capital Bangui alone. The fear is that the sectarian violence will
spread throughout the country, leading a situation like the Rwanda
genocide in 1994. Reuters and AFP

****
**** Vladimir Putin 'liquidates' Russia's Ria Novosti news agency
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin took one more step on Monday to
return Russia to a Soviet-style dictatorship, when it was announced
that the Ria Novosti news agency would be "liquidated," and merged
with the more compliant Russia Today. Ria Novosti is state owned, but
it has angered Putin supporters by trying to present a relatively
balanced news coverage, occasionally presenting Putin or the Kremlin
in a less than favorable light. Ria Novosti presented fairly unbiased
coverage of the 2012 anti-Putin protests in Moscow, and more recently
of the pro-Europe protests in Ukraine.

The new news agency will be headed by Dmitry Kiselyov, who is
vitriolically anti-American and pro-Putin, and once said that
homosexuals should be banned from giving blood and that when
they die, their hearts should be "buried or incinerated as unsuitable
to prolong someone's life." Ria Novosti and Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Singapore, Little India,
India, Bangladesh, Teo Chee Hean,
Central African Republic, France, Séléka, anti-Balaka,
Mercy Corps, Bangui, Rwanda,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ria Novosti, Russia Today,
Dmitry Kiselyov

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