*** 11-Dec-13 World View -- Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'
• Canada and Russia to compete for control of the North Pole

****
**** Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'
****


Image from North Korean television showing Jang Song-thaek being forcibly dragged from a session of the ruling Workers' Party (Yonhap/AFP)

Jang Song-thaek, the 67-year-old uncle of the child dictator Kim
Jong-un, has been removed from power, and that two of his closest
associates were executed in public last month, as we reported
last week. It was
unconfirmed at that time, but now Jang's humiliation has been publicly
televised, showing two green-uniformed guards grabbing him by the
armpits and pulling him away from a Workers' Party meeting. He was
denounced for faction-building, womanizing, gambling and other acts as
dozens of former comrades watched.

South Korea's president Park Geun-hye said that Jang's highly
dramatic purge signals a "reign of terror":

<QUOTE>"I think we are at a very important point in
history. Situations on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia
are changing rapidly, and we are in a situation where we can't
lower our guard against North Korean threats and changes in its
situation.

North Korea is currently engaged in a reign of terror while
carrying out massive purges in order to consolidate Kim Jong-un's
power. The South-North relations could become more unstable in the
future."<END QUOTE>

Jang commanded about 200,000 North Korean troops who reported to the
Workers' Party Administration Department, which he headed. His
connections extended into the army-controlled trading companies that
procure most of North Korea's hard currency by trading across the
border with China and elsewhere. Jang's purge is raising alarms in
Beijing, where Jang maintained strong relations with political and
trade officials. The loss of Jang means that China has lost a
powerful contact within the North Korean leadership, and also a source
of many North Korean resources, including metal and coal. Yonhap (Seoul) and Malaysia Sun and LA Times

****
**** Canada and Russia to compete for control of the North Pole
****

Canada claims that it's just defending Santa Claus by filing papers
with the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental
Shelf claiming regions of the seabed and the undersea bed that include
the North Pole. Russia's president Vladimir Putin responded by
ordering Russia's military to step up its presence in the Arctic, and
to deploy military bases and military units in the Arctic. Whoever
has control of the North Pole also has control of the abundant oil and
natural deposits in the region. Canadian Broadcasting and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Jang Song-thaek,
Canada, Russia, North Pole, Santa Claus, Vladimir Putin

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*** 12-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain halt 'non-lethal aid' to Syria's rebels

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong activates its pandemic preparedness plan over H7N9 bird flu
• U.S. and Britain halt 'non-lethal aid' to Syria's rebels
• Turkey closes its border with Syria

****
**** Hong Kong activates its pandemic preparedness plan over H7N9 bird flu
****


A chicken is kept in a cage waiting to be inspected by health workers in Hong Kong. (AP)

A mutation in a new strain of H7N9 bird flu that's infecting people in
China is making it resistant to Roche's Tamiflu, the principal drug
used to treat people infected with the virus. The virus spreads
readily among certain types of birds, but transmission from bird to
human or from human to human is "fairly inefficient," according to
experts. However, when it does spread to a human, it's often
lethal.

Hong Kong, a city of 7.18 million people, is activating a pandemic
preparedness plan, after two new cases of the new strain of bird flu
were found in Shenzhen, an hour's train ride from Hong Kong, and a
popular day-trip destination for shopping and dining. Reuters and Bloomberg

****
**** U.S. and Britain halt 'non-lethal aid' to Syria's rebels
****

The United States and Britain are suspending shipments of "non-lethal
military aid" to the Syrian rebels opposed to Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. The decision to end this aid came when the Islamic Front
last week stormed and took control of several warehouses filled with
American supplies.

The Islamic Front is described as a coalition of conservative Islamist
groups who are not themselves linked to al-Qaeda, but who coordinate
activities al-Qaeda linked units, including Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra
Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS).

Under U.S. law, non-lethal aid can include communications equipment,
medical supplies, intelligence assistance and body armor. It's not
believed that cutting off this aid will make any difference, since
al-Assad massacring civilians with tanks, artillery, missiles,
warplane bombing runs, and even chemical weapons, much of which has
been supplied by the Russians, who are complicit in this genocidal
slaughter.

The Russian policy has been a disaster, as it's drawn jihadists from
as far away as Pakistan, Algerian and Dagestan to fight in Syria,
causing sectarian tensions to surge throughout the Mideast. The
Russians are responsible for the creation of Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIL,
by supplying weapons to a genocidal monster. McClatchy and AP

****
**** Turkey closes its border with Syria
****

Because of increased fighting among rival Syrian opposition groups in
northern Syria, all non-lethal assistance has been suspended, and
Turkey has closed the border with Syria. According to a Turkish
spokesman:

<QUOTE>"Efforts to receive more information were not
successful since yesterday [Tuesday] morning, but as of this
morning [Wednesday] the issue has become clear. The clashes
continued throughout last night.

“We are following the developments closely and if there are more
we will inform the public. At this point, no pedestrians or
vehicles are allowed to cross [at the gate]."<END QUOTE>

According to the latest information, the Islamic Front fighters have
taken control of the bases used by the "moderate" Free Syrian Army
(FSA), which is favored by the United States and the West. Zaman (Istanbul) and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, H7N9 bird flu, Roche's Tamiflu,
China, Hong Kong, Shenzhen,
Syria, Turkey, non-lethal aid,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL, ISIS,
Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Free Syrian Army, FSA

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*** 13-Dec-13 World View -- Russia prepares for Chechen jihadists' return from Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia prepares for Chechen jihadists' return from Syria
• Christian revenge attacks on Muslims increase in Central African Republic
• Greece begins to confiscate bank accounts of tax evaders

****
**** Russia prepares for Chechen jihadists' return from Syria
****


Jihadists from Russia's Caucasus fighting in Syria (Ria Novosti)

Thousands of ethnic Chechens have come from Chechnya, Russia's
southern province, or from Europe, and have gone to Syria to fight
against the army of Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar
al-assad. Russian officials are finally beginning to worry that these
Chechens, battle-hardened from the war in Syria, will return to Russia
and join Sunni militants who are fighting violent separatist movements
in the Caucasus. According to Chechnya's governor Ramzan Kadyrov:

<QUOTE>"Thousands of militants are in Syria who pose a grave
danger to our country, according to the Russian security
services. ...

[The] danger from the Syrian militants has never been a
secret. Even a blind person cannot fail to notice it. Ordinary
people discuss it. High-ranking officials openly talk about it. We
know how many human casualties stem from the inability [of the
government] to strike terrorists and Wahhabis preventively. That
is why the law enforcement agencies and the leadership of the
republic are undertaking a range of preventive
measures."<END QUOTE>

Russia has brought this violent blowback on itself, by providing
enormous amounts of the heavy weapons to the Shia/Alawite al-Assad to
use to exterminate Sunni women and children in Syria. This has caused
Sunni jihadists to declare that it's their sacred duty to help the
oppressed people in Syria, making Syria the center of jihadist
activity in the Mideast, and inflaming sectarian tensions throughout
the region. Jamestown and Reuters and Ria Novosti

****
**** Christian revenge attacks on Muslims increase in Central African Republic
****

The purpose of France's military intervention in the Central African
Republic was to halt a humanitarian crisis caused by Muslim Séléka
rebel on Christians. Christians have been formed their own
anti-Balaka rebel groups, targeting Muslims with revenge attacks.
France now has 1600 troops in CAR, mostly in the capital city Bangui,
trying to bring the violence under control, mostly by disarming the
Séléka fighters. But in doing so, they've been unable to prevent
widespread looting and anti-Balaka attacks targeting the Muslim
community. The Muslims are accusing the French troops, who are
themselves mostly Christian of targeting the Muslims and ignoring
attacks by Christians on Muslims.

<QUOTE>"Accomplices!" "Traitors!" "Come and see the bodies!"

"The French are organising the genocide. They are with the
Christians."<END QUOTE>

The French military intervention, aided by American transport
vehicles, seems to be having little effect on the violence in Bangui,
and even less effect in other cities where there are no French troops.

Violence is increasing, and this conflict is showing signs of
spiralling into a full-scale generational crisis war. However, I'm
unable to do a generational analysis, because I'm unable to find any
details of previous conflicts and relations between Christians and
Muslims in CAR. If any reader, possibly someone with access to French
colonial histories, could point me in the direction of such
information, I would appreciate it. AFP and BBC

****
**** Greece begins to confiscate bank accounts of tax evaders
****

Greece has issued its first order to confiscate the bank deposits of a
company that has allegedly evaded taxes, and owes an estimated 100,000
euros in taxes. The company, which was not named, is active in the
sectors of wholesale commerce and computer trading. Unfortunately,
it turns out that there is no money in firm's bank accounts,
which I suppose is what was to be expected.

Greece will now issue dozens more orders for confiscation of bank
accounts. For those that have insufficient bank accounts, bank
accounts will remain frozen for ten years, and any money obtained from
selling assets will be confiscated immediately. Out of 62 billion
euros that are owed, Greek authorities expect to collect no more than
18 billion, the rest being uncollectable. Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Chechnya, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, Ramzan Kadyrov,
Central African Republic, France, Séléka, anti-Balaka,
Christians, Muslims, Greece

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*** 14-Dec-13 World View -- India announces travel restrictions as Pakistan polio workers are killed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Concerns grow over stability of North Korean regime
• European governments fund terrorism through ransom payments
• India announces travel restrictions as Pakistan polio workers are killed

****
**** Concerns grow over stability of North Korean regime
****


Kim Jong-un and Jang Song-thaek earlier this year

In North Korea you can be executed for sneezing the wrong way, and
indeed dozens of officials have been purged since the child dictator
Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011. Nonetheless, the sudden fall from
grace and execution of Jang Song-thaek is so spectacular and so public
that it's feeding speculation that it signals a major power struggle
between competing factions in the child dictator's government. (See
"11-Dec-13 World View -- Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'"
)

The following is pretty funny. These are excerpts from the official
report on the execution of Jang:

<QUOTE>"Upon hearing the report on [Jang], the service
personnel and people throughout the country broke into angry
shouts that a stern judgment of the revolution should be meted out
to the anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional
elements. Against the backdrop of these shouts rocking the
country, a special military tribunal ... was held ... against
traitor for all ages Jang Song Thaek. ...

All the crimes committed by the accused were proved in the course
of hearing and were admitted by him. ...

However, despicable human scum Jang, who was worse than a dog,
perpetrated thrice-cursed acts of treachery in betrayal of such
profound trust and warmest paternal love shown by the party and
the leader for him. ...

The era and history will eternally record and never forget the
shuddering crimes committed by Jang Song Thaek, the enemy of the
party, revolution and people and heinous traitor to the
nation."<END QUOTE>

Analysts are mixed about the meaning of Jang's spectacular fall. Some
say that it signals a power struggle within Kim's family, and possibly
a coup. Others say that it means that Kim is becoming more powerful
and confident, to the point where feels he can get rid of even family
members whom he dislikes.

Whichever is true, the fear is a period of instability in North Korea.
Even worse, Kim may precipitate a crisis with South Korea or the
U.S. in order to justify further purges within his government.
Examples of previous crises precipitated by Kim or his father are the
shooting of long-range missiles earlier this year, nuclear missile
tests, and the sinking in 2010 of the South Korean warship Cheonan
with a torpedo, killing 46 people. Washington Times and CNN

****
**** European governments fund terrorism through ransom payments
****

Britain's Foreign Office is calling on other European governments to
stop making large money payments to terrorists in return for the
release hostages. No specific countries were named, but it's thought
that the Foreign Office was referring to France, Spain and Italy.
France is believed to have paid Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
$20 million to free four French hostages in Niger, though the French
government denies it. Earlier this year, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) took delivery of $22 million in cash in exchange for
Swiss, Austrian and Finnish hostages. Spain allegedly paid 12 million
euros to free a hostage in Mali. Ransom money is a major funding
source for terrorist groups, who use the money for everything from
food and electricity to chemicals for explosives. The Foreign Office
is asking other countries to stop making ransom payments, but
governments find it difficult to resist pressure from kidnap victims'
relatives. BBC and
Daily Mail (London)

****
**** India announces travel restrictions as Pakistan polio workers are killed
****

Gunmen shot dead a polio worker and two policemen on duty to protect a
polio vaccination team in two separate attacks on Friday. The
shootings were the latest in a series of attacks by militants
targeting polio teams. The Taliban have imposed an "official ban' on
polio vaccinations, claiming that the polio vaccines are a stealth way
to prevent Muslims from having more children, and they've been
murdering doctors and nurses who administer the vaccines. The result
is that polio is endemic in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan and
Nigeria.

India has become the first country to implement a ban on travelers
from Pakistan who have not been immunized against polio.

Pakistani travelers will not be allowed to enter India after January
30, 2014. According to an Indian official:

<QUOTE>"Any Pakistani wishing to travel to India has to
provide a certificate of vaccination as we want to keep the Indian
nation safe from the crippling disease."<END QUOTE>

Other countries are considering measures as well. The Lancet Medical
Journal, has warned that the Pakistani polio virus could become a
threat to Europe. In January 2012, 21 children in a Chinese province
were affected by polio, and it was confirmed that the virus strain had
been transmitted from Pakistan after its DNA was analyzed. Pakistani
polio has been found in Egypt, Palestine, Israel and Syria. The Nation (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Jang Song-thaek,
Britain, France, Mali, Algeria, AQIM,
Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Pakistan, India, Taliban, polio, Afghanistan, Nigeria

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*** 15-Dec-13 World View -- China naval vessel confronts U.S. warship in international waters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China naval vessel confronts U.S. warship in international waters
• New bombings in Mali mean France will have to stay longer

****
**** China naval vessel confronts U.S. warship in international waters
****


The guided missile cruiser USS Cowpens (CNN)

A Chinese naval vessel confronted the USS Cowpens, a guided missile
warship, in international waters on December 6, forcing the
U.S. vessel to take evasive action to avoid a collision. The Chinese
action was deliberate, and was apparently taken to prevent the
U.S. warship from conducting surveillance on China's aircraft carrier,
the Liaoning. The confrontation took place in the South China Sea in
international waters. China is claiming territory in the South China
Sea that has historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
Indonesia and the Philippines, while Japan itself is facing daily
military confrontations with China around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
However, the December 6 confrontation occurred entirely in
international waters, according to U.S. officials. CNN
and Free Beacon

****
**** New bombings in Mali mean France will have to stay longer
****

A bomb explosion killed and wounded several United Nations
peacekeepers on Saturday in the supposedly secure town of Kidal in
northern Mali. At the same time, at least 80 Islamic radicals carried
out an attack on a Tuareg camp in Teringuite, also in northern Mali,
with unknown casualties. These twin assaults are the worst in
northern Mali in recent weeks. France send 4,000 troops to Mali
earlier this year, and had hoped to have them all home by now.
Instead, France is going to find it difficult to leave Mali and, at
the same time, France has just sent 1,600 new troops to Central
American Republic, where the violence between Christians and Muslims
continues to spiral out of control. AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, USS Cowpens, South China Sea, China,
Mali, Central African Republic, France

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*** 16-Dec-13 World View -- Syria's air force drops 'barrel bombs' on Aleppo neighborhoods

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's air force drops 'barrel bombs' on Aleppo neighborhoods
• Lebanon soldier fires at Israeli vehicle across the border

****
**** Syria's air force drops 'barrel bombs' on Aleppo neighborhoods
****


Neighborhood targeted by barrel bombs on Sunday (Reuters)

Syrian government aircraft have dropped at least 25 barrel bombs on
neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo, targeting three districts and a
school, killing dozens of civilians and at least 15 children. A
"barrel bomb" is a barrel containing hundreds of pounds of explosives,
designed to cause massive damage on impact.

Syria's civil war began almost three years ago, when Syria's
psychopathic president began slaughtering and massacring peaceful
protesters, using heavy weapons supplied by Russia, sending missiles
into school dormitories, flattening entire neighborhoods of innocent
women and children, even using chemical weapons. Hundreds of
thousands of Syrians have been killed, and millions have been forced
to leave their homes and flee to neighboring countries.

Al-Assad's genocidal campaign has been made possible by massive
military support from Russia and Iran. President Barack Obama has
been complicit, and made things much worse by lying and saying that
use of chemical weapons was a "red line," and then flip-flopping,
essentially turning American foreign policy over to Russia.

The massive slaughter of Sunnis by Syria's Shia/Alawite president, has
turned Syria into a magnet for jihadists from countries as far away as
Pakistan, Algeria and Russia. Sectarian Sunni versus Shia tensions
are growing throughout the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia apparently
providing funding to Sunni groups within Syria. Furthermore, with
millions of refugees continuing to flood other countries, the entire
Mideast has become politically and economically unstable. Thanks to
the policies particularly of Russia and the United States, the
instability of several Mideast countries could spiral into a war at
any time.

Sunday's use of barrel bombs to destroy entire neighborhoods and
schools filled with innocent civilians shows that the massive
slaughter by genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad is far from over.
BBC
and Reuters

****
**** Lebanon soldier fires at Israeli vehicle across the border
****

The border between Lebanon and Israel has been extremely tense for
decades, particularly since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah
in Lebanon. Since then, the United Nations has had a peacekeeping
force patrolling the border, and even a minor incident becomes
international news. On Sunday evening, a Lebanese soldier fired six
or seven shots at an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) vehicle that was
patrolling on Israel's side of the border. So far, the IDF believes
that the sniping was done by a soldier acting alone from the Lebanese
Armed Forces. Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Russia, Bashar al-Assad,
Lebanon, Israel

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*** 17-Dec-13 World View -- Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.N. makes biggest funding request ever, for Syria
• Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West

****
**** U.N. makes biggest funding request ever, for Syria
****


A Syrian man cries carrying the body of a child killed by an al-Assad barrel bomb (AP)

The United Nations on Monday made the biggest appeal for emergency aid
in its history, a total request of $12.9 billion, half of which is for
victims of Syria's war. According to the U.N., 9.3 million people
inside Syria require aid. In addition, around 2.4 million refugees
have fled, mainly to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt.

This appeal comes a day after Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime dropped
dozens of "barrel bombs" on civilian neighborhoods in Aleppo, killing
76, including 28 children.

The war in Syria began almost three years ago, when al-Assad ordered
his army to start shooting innocent protesters, bombing and flattening
neighborhoods where innocent people were living, launching missiles
into children's dormitories and bedrooms, raping, torturing,
mutilating and massacring innocent women and children on a large
scale. These genocidal acts are continuing, but thanks to Russia,
which is fully participating in the genocidal acts by supplying
unlimited weapons to al-Assad, the U.N. has not even criticized the
al-Assad regime. And this is also thanks to the U.S., which
has sold out its foreign policy to the Russians.

So we have the ridiculous situation where al-Assad is killing hundreds
of thousands of his own civilians, and is making millions more
homeless, freezing and starving, and what does the U.N. do? Instead
of even criticizing the genocidal acts, it begs people for an
unlimited amount of money to provide aid to the continuing flow of
genocide victims. The U.N. is like a funeral director who arranges
for people to be killed in order to have more business.

In the meantime, the actions of Alawite/Shia Bashar al-Assad to try to
exterminate all the Sunnis in Syria has inflamed the entire Mideast
along sectarian lines, and has turned Syria into a magnet for Sunni
jihadists from all over the world. This is an absolute disaster.
AFP and AP

****
**** Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West
****

A serious split is developing among the Arabian Gulf states in the
Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) over the apparent rapprochement
between Iran and the West. Saudi Arabia has already split with the
United States and the United Nations over what the Saudis call
"hypocrisy" over the Syria issue, following President Obama's
flip-flop over the "red line" on chemical weapons.

The improving relationship between the U.S. administration and
Iran is turning Saudi Arabia's concerns to alarm. The Saudis
consider Iran to be a mortal enemy, and they view Iran's
influence as growing throughout the region, thanks to their
relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon and al-Assad in Syria,
and the support of the United States and Russia. The Saudis
are proposing that the GCC nations form a "Gulf Union," similar
to the European Union. According to a Saudi official:

<QUOTE>"[It is] Saudi Arabia's desire to reach the phase of
the Gulf Union, because it is the interest of the GCC states, and
because unity would grant the Gulf strength so it can continue
being an active partner in Middle Eastern affairs... The Arab
Gulf, with its possibilities and achievements, has become a target
for threats by several elements, which makes the call to
transition from the stage of cooperation to that of union a
pressing matter... The union is no longer a luxury, but rather a
challenge... in light of the increasing dangers around us. The
Union has become the first and only option for Gulf
citizens... [In fact,] it was the initial motivation for creating
the GCC, which was established over three decades ago in order to
[ultimately] reach the stage of full unity."<END QUOTE>

However, Oman has bluntly rejected the call for the Gulf Union, to the
extent of threatening to leave the six-member GCC if the plan goes
ahead. Oman has been joined by United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar
in opposing the Union. Bahrain has sided with the Saudis, while the
remaining GCC member, Kuwait, has remained silent.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, where the predominant form of Islam is Sunni
Islam, the predominant form in Oman is Ibadi, which is distinct form
of Islam practiced mostly in eastern and northern Africa. Thus, Oman
is not closely tied to either Saudi Arabia and Iran from a religious
sect point of view, and sees itself as a mediator between the two
countries. Memri and
Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC

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*** 18-Dec-13 World View -- Japan announces new military buildup to counter China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arrest in NY of female Indian diplomat raises a major diplomatic altercation
• Japan announces new military buildup to counter China
• John Kerry rebukes China over air identification zone

****
**** Arrest in NY of female Indian diplomat raises a major diplomatic altercation
****


Devyani Khobragade

Indian citizens are expressing fury that Devyani Khobragade, and
Indian diplomat, was arrested by New York City police last Thursday on
charges of having submitted fraudulent visa paperwork, and for paying
her nanny about 1/3 of the minimum wage. In her visa papers,
Khobragade said she would pay her nanny $4,500 a month, but actually
paid the nanny $573.07 a month If found guilty, Khobragade faces a
maximum sentence of 10 years for visa fraud and five years for making
false statements. India is invoking diplomatic immunity, which the
district attorney is contesting.

The anger in India is over the way that Khobragade was allegedly
treated: According to reports, she was arrested and handcuffed in
front of her daughter while dropping her off at school, and then she
was taken to the police station, where she was strip-searched and
forced to remain in a cell with drug dealers for several hours.
American officials say that this is standard procedure for everyone.

India's government is taking harsh retaliatory measures against
U.S. diplomats in Delhi. The government is demanding the return of
special identification cards, and has already removed the barricades
protecting the American embassy, evidently seeking to invite a car
bomb attack on the embassy.

Some officials are demanding that gay partners of American diplomats
be arrested, as homosexuality is illegal in India. India is seeking
an unconditional apology. Times of India and CS Monitor

****
**** Japan announces new military buildup to counter China
****

Japan has announced a plan to change its military strategy from
"pacifism" to "proactive pacifism," and to increase defense spending
and transform its military from a largely land-based force to a new
amphibious assault force. The shopping list includes twenty-eight
F-35 stealth fighters, 17 Osprey tilt rotor aircraft, 52 amphibious
assault vehicles, and 99 light combat vehicles.

Japan's military buildup plans come in response to China. China has
quadrupled its defense budget in the last ten years, has claimed vast
areas of the South and East China Seas, including regions that have
historically belonged to other countries, has threatened to use its
vast military power to take some of these areas by force, and has been
harassing Japanese ships around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which are
governed by Japan. Japan News and
BBC

****
**** John Kerry rebukes China over air identification zone
****

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry rebuked China for unilaterally
setting up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China
Sea. ( "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands"
) In the ADIZ announcement in November, China
demanded that all aircraft must identify themselves or their flight
plans before entering the zone, or else face military consequences.
Kerry statement criticized China's ADIZ in the East China Sea, and
also warned China not to announce an additional ADIZ in the South
China Sea:

<QUOTE>"So we’re not suggesting that we’re doing something
out of the ordinary here. We don’t want anything except a
rule-of-law approach to the resolution of any issues and
conflicts. So when you say what do we want from China, we would
hope to continue to work closely with China, as we are on North
Korea and other issues – trade and so forth – in an effort to try
to resolve these kinds of differences or questions in a peaceful
way. We believe there is a structure that exists – the Law of the
Sea structure, an arbitration process. We have not taken a
position on the particular claims asserted by anybody. We have
taken a position on the way that we think they should be
resolved. So we support arbitration and we support rule of law. We
do not support unilateral actions that have the impact of being
provocative and raising the temperature and potential conflict.

So we are not approaching this with any particular view towards
China except to say when China makes a unilateral move, we will
state our position and make clear what we agree or disagree with,
and that’s what we’ve done with respect to the ADIZ. We do not
accept it. We think it is – there’s a way to approach it. A
country has a right to establish an ADIZ. But it has to be done
through a process of consultation, work with the International
Aviation Organization, and in a way that other nations are
consulted and work with it. And we think that’s the best way to
proceed, and I think most countries in the world believe that’s
the best way to proceed."<END QUOTE>

The statement was made during a press conference in Manila, the
Philippines. State Dept.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Devyani Khobragade,
Japan, South China Sea, East China Sea, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
John Kerry, Philippines

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*** 19-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Corruption probe throws Turkey's government into crisis
• U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads
• Sectarian atrocities escalate in Central African Republic

****
**** Corruption probe throws Turkey's government into crisis
****


Police found a banknote counter in the home of the Interior Minister's son (Zaman)

In Turkey, 52 people, including bureaucrats, well-known businessmen,
and the sons of three ministers were arrested on Tuesday in a massive
corruption investigation that threatens the government of prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The corruption investigation extends
deep into the police department, as 29 senior police officials in the
Istanbul and Ankara police departments were forced to step down from
their posts for "abuse of office" related to the investigations.

The corruption charges are broad. Azeri businessman Reza Zarrab is
accused of paying bribes to Cabinet members to protect his alleged
crime gang, and to coverup a range of illegal transactions, including
smuggling $150 million in cases from Turkey to Russia. Meanwhile,
police searching the home of detained Halkbank general manager
Suleyman Aslan have found $4.5 million in cash hidden in shoe boxes in
his library.

The corruption charges are thought to have come about because of a
split within Erdogan's AK political party, pitting himself against a
former ally, Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish Islamic cleric, currently
living in the United States. Erdogan himself has denounced the
corruption investigation as a "dirty operation" by political enemies
of his government. Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Zaman (Ankara) and BBC

****
**** U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads
****

The United States and Britain on Wednesday began evacuating their
personnel from their embassies in Juba, the capital of South Sudan.
The evacuations come three days after gunbattles broke out in Juba.
Some reports indicate that the gunbattles are between members
of warring Dinka and Nuer tribes.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is really a
remarkable story. What's really panicking people is not the
gunbattles in Juba, but other gunbattles in the nearby provincial
capital Bor. Those gunbattles triggered mass exodus of citizens, and
more than 20,000 civilians are now shelting at two U.N. compounds in
Juba.

Now, there's nothing pleasant about nearby gunbattles, but why
would those cause 20,000 people to flee their homes and take
a dangerous trip to Juba, where they risk not even being welcome?

To answer that question, we have to look back to November 15, 1991,
when the "Bor Massacre" began. Over the next three months, 2,000
civilians were killed, thousands more wounded, at least 100,000 people
fled the area. Famine followed the massacre, as looters burnt
villages and raided cattle, resulting in the deaths of 25,000 more
from starvation.

Nothing like that could possibly happen today, because the surviving
generations won't permit it. But people in the same surviving
generations are afraid that it WILL happen again, and so they're
fleeing their homes and running to the U.N. in anticipation of another
massacre, that won't occur. VOA and London Post (2011)

****
**** Sectarian atrocities escalate in Central African Republic
****

The Central African Republic (CAR) is quite a different story. As
each day goes by, it becomes clear that the violence between Muslims
and Christians is spiraling out of control, despite the attempt by
French forces to disarm both. Most of the victims so far have
been Christians, but the massacres and atrocities are escalating
on both sides.

Last week I asked readers to help me out with the history of CAR, and
several people wrote to me to point out that the last generational
Crisis war was the 1928-31 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe
Handle"), targeting the French colonialists. I thank the people who
wrote to me with that information.

The general rule in generational theory is that a new generational
crisis war can only occur when the survivors of the previous crisis
war have disappeared (died or retired), all at once. This
generational change happens about 58 years after the climax of the
previous crisis war. It's almost impossible for a new crisis war to
begin less that 50 years after the previous climax, but the
probability goes up each year, reaching a peak at the 58 year mark
(the statistical "mode"). However, there are many examples where
the new crisis war begins 60 or 70 or more years after the
previous climax.

So going back to the southern part of South Sudan, the previous crisis
war climaxed with the Bor Massacre in 1991. So now, 22 years later, a
new crisis war is impossible, despite the fact that almost every news
report says that it might happen at any time. (As an aside, the
northern part of South Sudan had a more recent crisis war that
climaxed in 2009 with the secession of South Sudan from Sudan.)

The reason that a new crisis war in the South Sudan is impossible
isn't rocket science. When any population goes through the horrors of
a generational crisis war, which is the worst kind of war known to
man, then the survivors vow that they will devote their lives to
making sure that nothing like that ever happens to their children or
grandchildren. And their efforts are successful, until they pass
away, and then a new crisis war can begin.

So in the case of C.A.R., it's now 82 years after the end of the
preceding crisis war, so the mood is very, very ripe for a new crisis
war, and it's extremely likely that the current conflict between
Muslims and Christians will spiral into full-scale war, and that
France's army will be overwhelmed.

While I'm on this subject, the last crisis war for Mali was the Tuareg
rebellion that climaxed in 1963. So now, 50 years later, a new crisis
war is almost impossible, and in fact the fighting in Mali appears to
have simmered down, except for invading al-Qaeda linked militias in
the north. Human Rights Watch


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Fethullah Gulen,
South Sudan, Juba, Dinka, Nuer, Bor, Bor Massacre of 1991,
Central African Republic, Kongo-Wara Rebellion,
Mali, Tuareg Rebellion

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*** 20-Dec-13 World View -- Russia to free Pussy Riot, Greenpeace activists and Khodorkovsky

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia to free Pussy Riot, Greenpeace activists and Khodorkovsky
• Putin announces that Mikhail Khodorkovsky will be freed
• Obamacare goes into total panicked chaos

****
**** Russia to free Pussy Riot, Greenpeace activists and Khodorkovsky
****


Warm, friendly, smiling Vladimir Putin, with a twinkle in his eye, at a press conference on Thursday

It seems that Russia's president Vladimir Putin must be in a
Christmassy mood. Russia's parliament, presumably with Putin's
blessing, on Wednesday approved a sweeping amnesty law that will free
tens of thousands of prisoners from Russia's prisons. The amnesty law
will apply primarily to retirees, invalids, women with children and
pregnant women, and victims of the Chernobyl disaster.

The amnesty law will free the "Pussy Riot" girls who, last year in
February, charged up to the front of Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the
Saviour during a service and sang a song criticizing Putin. The
incident might have been forgotten, but the girls put the whole
performance on YouTube, where it became viral. They were tried and
convicted of hooliganism, and were threatened with being jailed for
years. The new amnesty law means that they'll be free soon.

The amnesty law will also applies to the Greenpeace activists who, in
October, attempted to scale a Gazprom offshore oil platform in the
Arctic Ocean, hoping that the big publicity stunt would embarrass the
Russians. They also faced years of jail time on charges of
hooliganism, but the new law will free them as well.

The amnesty will also apply to Mikhail Khodorkovsky (see next item).

Putin's warm-hearted gestures come just a couple of days after the
visit to Moscow by Ukraine's president Viktor Yanukovich. During
their meeting, Putin kindly offered to loan $15B in aid to Ukraine,
with no strings attached, to keep Ukraine from defaulting on its
foreign debt. Ukraine wouldn't have to join Putin's Eurasia Customs
Union, and Ukraine would still be allowed to trade with the European
Union.

It's thought that Putin is going all out to put on a warm, friendly
face for the Winter Olympics to be held in Sochi in February, only six
weeks from now. Leaders of several European countries -- France,
Germany, Lithuania -- have announced that they will boycott Sochi
because of human rights issues in Russia. By freeing thousands of
prisoners, including high-profile prisoners like Pussy Riot,
Greenpeace activists, and Khodorkovsky, Putin may hope to reduce the
volume of some of the planned human rights protests. The same
reasoning applies to the free gift to Ukraine, where the pro-Russian
government has been facing massive anti-government protests.

I would suggest that anyone receiving amnesty under this law should
try to get out of Russia before the end of the Olympics games, because
Putin may not feel so Christmassy at that time. Ria Novosti and
BBC

****
**** Putin announces that Mikhail Khodorkovsky will be freed
****

The biggest amnesty news came on Thursday, when Russia's president
Vladimir Putin made an informal remark after a press conference that
Mikhail Khodorkovsky would be freed after ten years.

In 2004, for some reason that I no longer remember, I became
fascinated by the sage of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his company Yukos.
Khodorkovsky was CEO of Yukos, Russia's second largest oil company; it
was so big that it supplied 11.4% of all the oil for the WHOLE WORLD,
and alone accounted for 4% of Russia's economy.

Khodorkovsky's fatal mistake occurred in October, 2003, when
he announced a political campaign against Putin. Khodorkovsky
was arrested shortly after that.

In 2004, we saw a series of moves designed to allow Putin to
nationalize Yukos. Anyone interested can look at the series of
articles on my web log from 2004. But I'll only mention the
final step, which was worthy of being the grand finale of
a comic opera.

After a series of steps designed to drive Yukos into bankruptcy, in
December, 2004, Putin's judiciary was about to hold an auction of
Yukos's assets. It was expected that Gazprom would be the major
bidder, which would complete the nationalization of Yukos. (See "After a week of high comedy, who the heck is Baikal?"
from 2004.)

It really was high comedy all the way. In an attempt to delay the
auction, Yukos' lawyers asked a court to stop it. And which court did
they go to? They when to an American bankruptcy court in Houston,
Texas!! And the Houston court obliged, ordering the Russian
government not to hold the auction on Sunday. The bankruptcy court's
ruling was upheld on Saturday evening by an American federal appeals
court.

Well, the auction was held on Sunday anyway, and Gazprom did not even
bid on it. Instead, the winning bid was a very low $9.4 billion from
the Baikal Finance Group, which had a small energy subsidiary.

Well, who the heck was Baikal? Nobody knew, and there were a lot of
people following this deal. Well, a couple of days later, some
reporters tracked it down. Baikal's address was a liquor store in
Tver, a city 100 miles from Moscow, and reporters visiting there were
told that they never heard of Baikal, and had never been visited by
any oil tycoons. In the end, Baikal was just an empty shell company
that Putin used in his scheme to nationalize Yukos.

Meanwhile, Khodorkovsky was still in jail, and in the last ten years,
Putin has repeatedly made statements suggesting that he would be in
jail for the rest of his life. It was just a couple of months ago
that a Kremlin official said that they were filing new charges against
Khodorkovsky to make sure that he never gets out.

So that's why everyone was so surprised on Thursday, when warm,
friendly Uncle Vlad said that Khodorkovsky would soon be freed.
Apparently Khodorkovsky himself was not aware that this would happen,
nor were his lawyers or his family.

During 2004, when I followed the Yukos story, I was astounded how
vicious and crooked Putin is, and how easily he got away with it,
which seems to be the power of some politicians. There have been many
more examples of Putin's unscrupulousness since 2004, of course, but I
certainly do not believe that this amnesty program or the freeing of
Khodorkovsky have anything to do with the claimed humanitarian
concerns. I would repeat the advice I gave above: Especially for
Khodorkovsky, get out of Russia if you can before the Sochi Olympics
games end, because Putin may then look for a new excuse to put you
back in jail. Moscow Times and CS Monitor

****
**** Obamacare goes into total panicked chaos
****

The Obamacare web site, Healthcare.gov, continues to be the greatest
IT disaster in the world, while Obamacare policies continue in total
chaos. (See "1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed"
)

Now, as January 1 approaches, when millions of people will become
uninsured because of Obamacare, the administration announced late
Thursday evening another rules change, allowing people to buy
"catastrophic" plans that are forbidden under the law as passed by
Congress. One insurance industry official said that this last minute
panicked change "will cause tremendous instability in the
marketplace."

As long-time readers know, when the plan was announced in 2009, I
wrote that it would be "economic insanity" because it would be a
repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls that were
announced in August, 1972. The chaos was overwhelming, with a welter
of rules that no one could really figure out. (As one politician said,
"Remember, Virginia, when it’s a cucumber you can raise the price, but
when it becomes a pickle, [the price is frozen.]" There was
one fix after another to save the program, but in the end
it was a total disaster for the economy. Instead of lower the
inflation rate to 2%, as had been predicted, the inflation rate
shot up to 12%, because the wage-price controls program
screwed up the economy so much. It took a decade for the
economy to recover.

Now we're seeing the same thing happen again. Obamacare is an
unmitigated disaster for the health care industry and for the economy,
and every time they try to save it with some new tweak or adjustment,
they make the situation worse. Fox News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Pussy Riot, Greenpeace, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Yukos,
Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, Customs Union,
Sochi, Winter Olympics, Baikal

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As for health care I have suggested that we need a Plan B. That is, come up with something more practical, and less grandiose.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

As for health care I have suggested that we need a Plan B. That is, come up with something more practical, and less grandiose.

Unfortunately, at this point, so much damage has been done and so many
markets have been destroyed, there is no plan B.

*** 21-Dec-13 World View -- Poland surges past the EU in military modernization and growth

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Positions harden in U.S. vs India diplomatic debacle
• Poland surges past the EU in military modernization and growth
• Poland offers France logistical support in Central African Republic

****
**** Positions harden in U.S. vs India diplomatic debacle
****


Devyani Khobragade

The diplomatic debacle between the U.S. and India seems to be
escalating, as new facts come out and positions harden on both sides.
( "18-Dec-13 World View -- Arrest in NY of female Indian diplomat raises a major diplomatic altercation"
.)

Devyani Khobragade, an Indian diplomat, was arrested for underpaying
her nanny, also an Indian, and for lying about the pay on her visa
application. Indians are furious because Khobragade was arrested,
strip searched, and forced to sit in a lockup with drug users for
several hours, which the New York City police say is standard
procedure.

Well where, you might ask, was the nanny in all of this? That's where
the new facts are coming out. The nanny's name is Sageeta Richard.
Khobragade says that Richard disappeared on June 24, and then
attempted to blackmail Khobragade for money. Richard also stole from
Khobragade, according to Khobragade. Richard's attorney says that
until she left, she was forced to work seven days a week, from early
morning to late at night for little pay.

Khobragade is now out of jail on bail, but the U.S. State Dept. is
refusing to grant her diplomatic immunity, saying that diplomatic
immunity applies "only for acts performed in exercise of her consular
duties." A State Dept. spokesman says that there are no plans to drop
the criminal complaint: "We take these allegations very
seriously. We're not in any way walking back from those allegations or
the charges. Again, this is really a law enforcement issue."

Indian reports say that they are working with the State Dept. to find
a way to grant Khobragade "retroactive immunity," so that she can be
returned to India. Washington Post and Indian Express

****
**** Poland surges past the EU in military modernization and growth
****

At a time when Europe appears to be disarming voluntarily, Russia is
having a resurgence as a military power, raising concerns in Poland
about Russia as a potential threat to its security and sovereignty.
The concerns reached a high anxiety level in 2008 following two
landmark developments: Russia's invasion of Georgia, annexing two
Georgian provinces, and a Nato summit that ended the prospects of Nato
membership for Ukraine and Georgia. These events brought back the
specter of conventional state-on-state conflict along Europe’s
periphery. While NATO and the United States remain central to
Poland’s security, there has been a reorientation in Poland’s strategy
toward regional and traditional territorial defense.

Poland has doubled its defense spending over the past decade, and the
ministry of defense has launched an armed forces modernization plan to
cost $61 billion by 2022. The hardware shopping list will include new
ships, helicopters, tanks and armored personnel carriers, additional
aircraft, and most importantly, new air and missile defenses. The
antiballistic (ABM) system is the most significant of Poland’s
military modernization efforts, and felt to be most needed for
protection from Russia. Poland plans to spend an additional $30
billion on equipment modernization across the services, on added
information technology capabilities, and on increasing the overall
combat readiness of the Polish forces. An old Polish saying captures
well the public mood on national defense: "If you can count,
ultimately count on yourself." AEI

****
**** Poland offers France logistical support in Central African Republic
****

France's president François Hollande has been begging for help in
Central African Republic, where the situation continues to worsen
despite the presence of 1600 French soldiers. France is alone in
C.A.R., and Hollande would like the help of some other European
country, because then it would be "considered a European operation and
there would be financial aid." Poland has agreed to help out, and
will give France logistical support with a military transport aircraft
and a service crew of 50 soldiers starting on February 1, 2014 for
three months. AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Devyani Khobragade, Sageeta Richard,
Poland, Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, Nato

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Poland is vulnerable because of the lack of WMD

*** 22-Dec-13 World View -- China denounces Japan's planned military expansion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China denounces Japan's planned military expansion
• Another anti-polio worker shot in Pakistan
• North Korea threatens South with 'merciless attack' via fax machine

****
**** China denounces Japan's planned military expansion
****


Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (BBC)

China is denouncing Japan's change in military strategy from
"pacifism" to "proactive pacifism. Japan plans substantial increases
in defense and military spending, especially to create a new
amphibious assault force, in response to China's surging military
strength and nationalistic aggression.
( "18-Dec-13 World View -- Japan announces new military buildup to counter China" )

China's first reaction, on Wednesday, was:

<QUOTE>"It is hardly cheering news that a country whose
leaders still salute war criminals has formally launched its
military reconstruction."<END QUOTE>

This refers to the visits by Japanese politicians to make annual
personal visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which contains Japanese dead
from WW II, including 14 convicted or accused Class A war criminals.

China's Defense Ministry spokesman said, "China is firmly opposed to
Japan's relevant actions," and said:

<QUOTE>"On the one hand, Japan claimed that it is a
peace-loving country, and that it adheres to a defensive defense
policy and will not be a military power. On the other hand, Japan
is peddling the so-called "proactive pacifism".

In its new defense program guidelines, Japan gave up the policy of
building of a moderate self-defense force. ...

Japan also planned to purchase advanced armament like F-35 stealth
fighters, surveillance drone fleet and Aegis destroyers and tried
to form a fast-response-amphibious unit.

Where is Japan's military and security policy going? ... It causes
great concerns from Japan's Asian neighbors and international
society.

On the one hand, Japan claimed that it respects freedom,
democracy, human rights and the rule of law, but on the other
hand, it repeatedly denied its history of aggression during the
Second World War, challenged the post-war international order and
hurt the feeling of the people of the war-victim countries, he
said.

As a nation that can not reflect on its history, what
qualification does Japan have to speak about freedom, democracy,
human rights and the rule of law? How can the country make
contributions to the world peace?

Japan has on the one hand claimed to strengthen international
coordination, safeguard peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific
region, and make efforts to ensure security and prosperity of the
international community, but on the other hand it sticked [sic] to
the Cold War mentality and beefed up military alliance with
relevant countries.

Japan also tried to woo other countries to create regional
confrontation and roil the regional situation, he said, noting
that Japan's actions run counter to the trend of the times
featuring peaceful development and win-win cooperation.

We urged Japan to make deep introspection on its history, honor
its commitment to peaceful development, and try to improve its
relations with Asian neighbors with concrete actions, so as to
play a constructive role in safeguarding regional peace and
stability."<END QUOTE>

China Ministry of Defense and BBC

****
**** Another anti-polio worker shot in Pakistan
****

Ghalib Khan, a health technician working in Pakistan's polio
vaccination program was shot multiple times and killed by motorcycle
gunmen on Saturday morning. The Taliban have been killing workers in
the polio vaccination sector, claiming that polio vaccinations are a
Western plot to prevent Muslims from having children. The result is
that polio is in endemic in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan and
Nigeria. Furthermore, Pakistan's polio has been spreading, as strains
of Pakistan's polio virus have been found in other countries,
including Syria and China. According to the latest data, the greatest
number of polio cases in Pakistan are in the northwest, in and near
the tribal areas, where the Taliban have been most active in killing
health workers. Pakistan Today

****
**** North Korea threatens South with 'merciless attack' via fax machine
****


South Koreans burn effigies of North Korean child dictator Kim Jong-un and his late father (AFP)

The North Koreans have faxed a threat to the South Koreans, saying
that they will conduct a "merciless strike" against the strike,
"without notice." According to a South Korean Defense Ministry
spokesman said they faxed a response right back: "We've sent a reply
vowing to react sternly to any provocations by North Korea."

The North's faxed threat was a response to rallies held by North
Korean defectors protesting child dictator Kim Jong-un's human rights
abuses, some burning effigies of Kim and his father. The North Korean
military condemned that the rallies insulted North Korea's "highest
dignity," referring to the child dictator.

There is still considerable concern among South Koreans about the
aftermath of last week's execution of Kim's uncle, Jang Song-thaek.
There have reportedly been dozens more executions, including Jang's
relatives and other senior officials who worked with former dictator
Kim Jong-il. I get the impression from the reports that anyone over
the age of 35 has been executed, leaving the child dictator and his
young friends to run the country. That's undoubtedly an exaggeration,
but still, the possibilities for instability are large. Yonhap (Seoul) and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, proactive pacifism,
Yasukuni Shrine, Ghalib Khan, Pakistan, Taliban, polio,
North Korea, South Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il,
Jang Song-thaek

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*** 23-Dec-13 World View -- China conducts flight test of DF-41 long-range nuclear-capable missile

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China conducts flight test of DF-41 long-range nuclear-capable missile
• Al-Qaeda apologizes for terrorist attack on Yemen hospital
• Egypt's junta targets secularists in addition to Muslim Brothers

****
**** China conducts flight test of DF-41 long-range nuclear-capable missile
****


Purported photo of Chinas DF-41 long-range nuclear-capable missile (Free Beacon)

U.S. defense officials are saying that China's military has conducted
a second flight test of its Dong Feng-41 (DF-41) long-range missile,
capable of hitting targets in the United States with a nuclear
warhead. When fully deployed, a single one of these missiles will be
capable of carrying up to 10 nuclear warheads, each targeting a
different location. According to a report by the Air Force National
Air and Space Intelligence Center:

<QUOTE>"China has the most active and diverse ballistic
missile development program in the world. It is developing and
testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units,
qualitatively upgrading missile systems, and developing methods to
counter ballistic missile defenses.

The Chinese ballistic missile force is expanding in both size and
types of missiles."<END QUOTE>

China is also rapidly deploying a JL-2 missile that can be launched
from a submarine, carrying three warheads. This would allow China to
launch simultaneous attacks with long-range land-based missiles in
China to target the western United States, and then use submarines to
attack cities on the east coast.

In 2011, I reported on China's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile.
( "2-Aug-11 World View -- China could defeat U.S. in war over Taiwan"
) That missile was
designed to target U.S. aircraft carriers. The problem with
targeting any ship with a missile is that the ship can keep moving
as the missile travels. So the DF-21D is designed to travel
at high altitudes to the region of the aircraft carrier, and
then use heat sensors to detect its new position.

China's rapid development of diverse missiles targeting America will
change the entire geopolitical situation. China is currently using
its vast military power to annex or threaten to annex regions of
India, central Asia, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea that
have historically belonged to other nations. These countries have
depended on the United States for protection from China's military,
but with the U.S. itself under threat, China will be able to act more
aggressively towards its neighbors, and confiscate additional regions.
The concern among these nations is exacerbated by President Barack
Obama's perceived weakness in foreign affairs, and his continuing
reductions in deployed warheads that might serve to deter a Chinese
attack.

As I've been saying for almost ten years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that China is rapidly and aggressively preparing for
preemptive war against the United States. When China decides to
attack, they'll do so to achieve maximum surprise and with maximum
force. So they'll launch hundreds of nuclear missiles at American
cities, military installations, and aircraft carriers.

The U.S. will still function after such an attack, even with numerous
destroyed cities, and it's doubtful that China will win the war in the
long run. China will be facing enemies all around it -- Japan,
Vietnam, India, Russia -- and will also be dealing internal
rebellions. After five or six years, the survivors will start to
rebuild the world, and will vow that no similar war should ever be
allowed to happen again. Washington Free Beacon and Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence (PDF)

****
**** Al-Qaeda apologizes for terrorist attack on Yemen hospital
****

In the Muslim world, the biggest complaint about al-Qaeda is that they
kill a lot more Muslims than Westerners. Gunfire and bombings that
kill Muslims in markets, restaurants and mosques are quite common in
Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and other countries. But
apparently a car bomb attack on a hospital in military complex in
Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, on December 5 has drawn so much criticism
to Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) that they've actually been
forced to issue an apology.

Of course there was no apology on the day of the attack. On that
day, AQAP's media arm tweeted:

<QUOTE>"[The compound was] stormed... after the mujahedeen
(holy warriors) proved that it accommodates drone control rooms
and American experts. As part of a policy to target drone control
rooms, the mujahedeen have dealt a heavy blow to one. Such
security headquarters in partnership with the Americans in their
war on these Muslim people are a justified target wherever they
may be."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately for AQAP, their 25 terrorist attackers didn't kill any
Americans in drone control rooms. Instead, they killed 52 hospital
patients.

But now, over two weeks later, AQAP is humming a different tune.
According to an AQAP military commander:

<QUOTE>"The attack was on the ministry of defense, it was not
on the hospital. We told them (jihadists) to be cautious, not to
enter the prayer place or the hospital. Eight of our brothers were
cautious, and one did not. May Allah forgive him and have mercy on
him."<END QUOTE>

AFP and AFP (12/6/2013)

****
**** Egypt's junta targets secularists in addition to Muslim Brothers
****

Ever since the July 3 army coup that deposed President Mohamed Morsi
and his Muslim Brotherhood government, the army has jailed or killed
thousands of members of the Muslim Brotherhood. But on Sunday, three
secular and liberal activists were sentenced to three years in jail
for organizing an unlicensed protest, and fined $7,100 each. They
were found guilty of violating a law passed on November 24 that
forbids protests without police permission. Recent actions by the
ruling junta signal a new direction of returning the government to a
full dictatorship, as it had been under Hosni Mubarak. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and AFP



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Dong Feng-41, DF-41, DF-21D, JL-2,
Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center,
Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Hosni Mubarak

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*** 24-Dec-13 World View -- Sinai based Ansar Jerusalem kills 11 in car bomb attack in Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Request for help from readers
• Central African Republic militants clash with peacekeepers
• Turkey replaces Iran as primary funding source for Hamas
• Sinai based Ansar Jerusalem kills 11 in car bomb attack in Egypt

****
**** Request for help from readers
****

I'd like to ask readers to please go to the main web site, GenerationalDynamics.com and
trying clicking on a few links, and see if you get server resets.
Just try about twenty or thirty clicks, and let me know if there are
any problems, or if they go smoothly. Please let me know either way.

I'm getting plenty of server resets, and I'm trying to determine
whether it's happening to everyone, or just to me.

You can send me an e-mail message, or you can go to the comment link
at the end of this article and post your findings anonymously.
Thanks.

****
**** Central African Republic militants clash with peacekeepers
****


Women protesting Chadian troops bear their chests in a traditional sign of placing a curse on Monday (AP)

The conflict in the Central African Republic is taking a new turn as
militias on each side clash with a particular segment of the
peacekeeping force. The Seleka militias, mostly Muslims, are clashing
with the mostly Christian peacekeeping forces from France, describing
them as Nazis, leading the French army forces to open fire on
suspected ex-Seleka fighters who were "preparing to use their
weapons," killing three. France is the former colonial power, and has
1,600 peacekeeping soldiers in C.A.R.

The anti-Balaka militias, mostly Christian, are clashing with the
mostly Muslim peacekeeping forces from Chad, who are a contingent of
the African Union peacekeeping forces in C.A.R. Many Christians
accuse the Chad forces of openly siding with the Seleka militias, and
point out that Chadians have been part of the Seleka militias from the
beginning. In clashes with Christians, Chadian forces fired into the
crowd on Monday, killing one and injuring 40. This was after a
Ugandan peacekeeper was killed by Christian militias over the weekend.
The African Union has 4,000 troops in C.A.R., including a contingent
from Chad, which is a country that borders C.A.R.

Hostility to the peacekeepers on all sides is growing, and complicates
the effort to prevent all-out war. BBC and Reuters and AP

****
**** Turkey replaces Iran as primary funding source for Hamas
****

Unnamed Israeli intelligence sources are saying that Turkey's prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is overseeing the transfer of up to $250
million per year to Hamas, the governors of Gaza, and identified as a
terrorist organization by the West. The money is being channeled
through private sources, with full coordination by Erdogan. In
addition, Turkey is said to be providing training to Hamas security
forces.

Hamas used to have it headquarters office in Damascus, Syria, and its
biggest financial backer used to be Iran, which provided $20 million
per month. However, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad started
massacring innocent Sunni Arab civilians, the Hamas broke with
al-Assad, moved its office from Damascus to Doha, Qatar, causing Iran
to break with Hamas. In 2012, Qatar pledged $400 million to the Hamas
regime, but the money never arrived. And so, according to these
reports, Turkey has become the main funding source for Hamas.
World Tribune and Israel National News

****
**** Sinai based Ansar Jerusalem kills 11 in car bomb attack in Egypt
****

A car bomb attack early Tuesday on a police headquarters in Mansour, a
Nile Delta city north of Cairo, killed 11 people, and injured dozens.
The attack comes a day after al-Qaeda linked Sinai terrorist group
Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Bayt al Maqdis or Champions of Jerusalem)
issued a statement calling on Egypt's police and army go desert
because they were supporting a secular government.

According to the Ansar Jerusalem statement:

<QUOTE>"[The security services] are using you as a tool in
implementing the schemes of the Jews and Christians and waging war
on Islam and Muslims. With your staying in these institutions
from evening to morning, you are incurring the anger of
Allah."<END QUOTE>

Ansar Jerusalem was founded by Egyptians, but is thought to be allied
with Hamas. It is the dominant jihadist group operating in the Sinai
Peninsula today, and has claimed credit for a number of attacks
against Israel and Egypt over the past two years. AP and Long War Journal


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Seleka,
anti-Balaka, Chad, France,
Hamas, Gaza, Turkey, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Damascus, Iran, Qatar, Egypt, Sinai,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, Champions of Jerusalem

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I keep getting this message in all browsers:

500: Internal server error


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Troubleshooting suggestions:


Temporarily disable any rewrite rules by renaming your .htaccess file if it exists.


Ensure that any CGI or Perl scripts have at least .755. permissions.


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*** 25-Dec-13 World View -- Bethlehem celebrates Roman Catholic midnight mass on Christmas eve

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Web site appears to have been fixed
• Bethlehem celebrates Roman Catholic midnight mass on Christmas eve
• Saudi Arabia student campaign to stop misuse of Mohammed's name

****
**** Web site appears to have been fixed
****

Yesterday I asked readers to let me know if they've been having
problems with the GenerationalDynamics web site. I received dozens of
replies, and almost every one reported significant problems (500:
Internal server error). Users said that they had to click Refresh
several times before the error disappeared.

Dealing with Network Solutions/web.com customer service is a
nightmare. They shuttle you from one "expert" to another, requiring
repeated wait times on hold, and none of the "experts" seems to have
any idea what's going on. Talking to Network Solutions/web.com
customer service is worse torture than waterboarding.

However, I was able to open a new support ticket, and report that
scores of users were having internal server errors with their servers.
This information caused them to escalate the problem, and apparently
is was fixed around 12:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

Thanks to everyone for your responses. They made a big difference.
And additional thanks go to those who appended messages of
appreciation for the daily World View column to their response. Merry
Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone!

****
**** Bethlehem celebrates Roman Catholic midnight mass on Christmas eve
****


Girls dress in traditional clothes at Bethlehem Christmas Eve celebrations (Deutsche-Welle)

Thousands of Palestinians and Israelis, as well as international
pilgrims and tourists, arrived in Bethlehem on Tuesday to witness the
Roman Catholic midnight mass at the Church of the Nativity, where it's
thought that Jesus Christ was born. Visitors included Palestinian
president Mahmoud Abbas and European Union foreign minister Catherine
Ashton.

The region of Bethlehem and Jerusalem is unique in the world because
it's the homeland of world's four monotheistic religions -- Judaism,
Western Christianity, Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and Islam. It
has thus been the epicenter of almost every major world war for
millennia. The people visiting Bethlehem are aware how easily some
dispute could spiral into a major conflict, and so the chances are
that every visitor will be on his best behavior.

There is one more midnight mass to be performed at the Church of the
Nativity in this year's holiday season. Orthodox Christmas is
celebrated on January 7, and there'll be a midnight mass in Bethlehem
on January 6 at midnight, as well as in Moscow, Athens, Cairo, and
other places with Orthodox Christian communities. Deutsche-Welle and LA Times

****
**** Saudi Arabia student campaign to stop misuse of Mohammed's name
****

A group of Saudi Arabian students from a university in Jeddah are
starting a campaign aimed at honoring the name of the Muslim prophet
Mohammed. Apparently it's common practice in Saudi Arabia that if you
don't know the name of the person you're talking to, even a
non-Muslim, then you call him Mohammed. Even worse, very often the
name is used in this way in a pejorative sense.

According to one college professor:

<QUOTE>"The prevalence of using ‘Mohammed’ in this
inappropriate way surfaced around 15 years ago and I remember we
never used this name to call unknown people or workers
before. Unfortunately, we as Muslims and members of the Saudi
community disregarded the sanctity of the name until we arrived at
a point that we began to use it to show our resentment toward
strangers."<END QUOTE>

This pretty clearly indicates this pejorative use of the name Mohammed
is generational. I would advise these university students to take
care, because the unintended consequence of their campaign is likely
to be more widespread use of the name in this way among young Saudis.
Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Network Solutions, web.com,
Bethlehem, Jerusalem, Mahmoud Abbas, Catherine Ashton,
Saudi Arabia, Mohammed

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*** 26-Dec-13 World View -- Egypt's 'terrorist group' designation of Muslim Brotherhood may be illegal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Calls for Erdogan to resign due to Turkey's corruption scandal
• Egypt's 'terrorist group' designation of Muslim Brotherhood may be illegal
• North Korea's Kim Jong-un was 'very drunk' when ordering purges

****
**** Calls for Erdogan to resign due to Turkey's corruption scandal
****


Erdogan at press conference on Wednesday (Hurriyet)

Turkey was shaken on Wednesday morning when three ministers in the
cabinet of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan all resigned, and one
of them called for Erdogan's resignation. In the case of each
minister, his son has been the target of a wide-ranging corruption
investigation that resulted in the arrest of 52 people, including
bureaucrats and well-known businessmen. The corruption investigation
involves billions of dollars, including illegal money laundering
through Iran, and bribes and kickbacks for construction projects.

I made a mistake when I first reported this story
last week. At that time, I wrote that 29
senior police officials in the Istanbul and Ankara police department
had been forced to step down because they were involved in the
corruption. That wasn't true. The reason that they were forced to
step down is because they were leading the investigation against the
corrupt government officials in Erdogan's administration, and Erdogan
arranged for the police officers to be fired.

Late on Wednesday, Erdogan replaced ten ministers in his cabinet, in
an effort to save his job and his government. He has denounced the
investigation as a plot by foreign and domestic forces to undermine
him. Zaman (Ankara) and AP

****
**** Egypt's 'terrorist group' designation of Muslim Brotherhood may be illegal
****

On Wednesday, the Sinai-based terrorist group Ansar Jerusalem has
claimed credit for Tuesday's car bombing in a city north of Cairo,
killing 11 people and injuring scores. ( "24-Dec-13 World View -- Sinai based Ansar Jerusalem kills 11 in car bomb attack in Egypt"
)

The Muslim Brotherhood condemned the car bombing, but most of Egypt's
public perceive the Brotherhood to be responsible. There was
widespread rioting against the Brotherhood late on Tuesday, and on
Wednesday, the military government declared the Brotherhood to be a
"terrorist organization," giving the police additional powers to
arrest Brotherhood members and seize Brotherhood property.

However, human rights activists are saying that the declaration is
unfounded and illegal According to human rights lawyer Malek Adly:

<QUOTE>"It is a problem. This is an administrative decision
and not a legislative one, as only the interim president has a
legislative right to issue decisions and law, not the cabinet.

I highly doubt that those who took the decision thought about its
legal background thoroughly. It would have been better to wait
for the court to issue a verdict to consider the Muslim
Brotherhood as a terrorist organization.

There is a hysteria in the street because of the failure of
security to deal with the Muslim Brotherhood and I personally
believe that there are some parties in the government marketing to
the idea that if we declare the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist
group all our problems in Egypt would be solved, which is
untrue.<END QUOTE>

Muslim Brotherhood activists say that they'll continue with their
anti-government protests, despite the terrorist designation. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** North Korea's Kim Jong-un was 'very drunk' when ordering purges
****

North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, was "very drunk" when he
order the execution of his uncle's two aides, according to reports.
These were aides to Kim's 67 year old uncle, Jang Song-thaek, and they
were executed two weeks before Jang himself was very publicly dragged
out of a Workers' Party meeting in a televised humiliation. "11-Dec-13 World View -- Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'"
Jang was
then executed a few days later, as part of a larger string
of purges and executions.

According to the reports, the drunken child dictator ordered the
executions because Jang and his aides were refusing to give control of
lucrative trade deals with China over to the military. These trade
deals, for resources like clams, crabs and coal, make huge profits for
North Korea. The Diplomat and Joongang Daily



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Malek Adly,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, Champions of Jerusalem,
North Korea, South Korea, Kim Jong-un, Jang Song-thaek

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*** 27-Dec-13 World View -- Japan's PM visits Yasukuni shrine, infuriating Chinese and Koreans

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan's PM visits Yasukuni shrine, infuriating Chinese and Koreans
• Israel to announce new settlements along with Palestinian prisoner release
• Pakistan protesters block Nato supply route after new drone strikes

****
**** Japan's PM visits Yasukuni shrine, infuriating Chinese and Koreans
****


China's foreign minister Wang Yi bares his teeth in a scathing TV interview criticizing Abe's visit to Yasukuni Shrine (Xinhua)

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a surprise visit to the
Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo on Thursday, saying the purpose of the visit
was to pray for peace. Yasukuni Shrine is the national shrine for
millions of war dead in Japan regardless of what role they played. It
is still a scared place to all Japanese. The shrine was initially
created by Emperor Meiji to commemorate any individuals who had died
in service of the Empire of Japan during the Meiji Restoration.
However, the numbers of those enshrined there have been expanded since
opening in 1867.

China and South Korea are infuriated by the visit, because 14
convicted or accused Class A war criminals are enshrined there, in
addition to the war dead from World War II.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said:

<QUOTE>"China will not tolerate this. Abe's visit severely
went against the principle and spirit of the four political
documents between the two countries, as well as the commitment
made by former Japanese administrations and leaders on historical
issues, and erected a major new political obstacle to the already
strained China-Japan relations.<END QUOTE>

However, according to Abe:

<QUOTE>"Some people criticize a visit to Yasukuni as
something to pay homage to war criminals, an idea based on
misunderstanding.

I paid a visit to show (to the war dead) my determination to
create an age where no one will ever suffer from tragedies of
wars."<END QUOTE>

Thursday was also the 120th anniversary of Mao Zedong's birthday,
which China celebrated with patriotic songs and TV
docu-dramas. Purposely left out of this “glorious” history was any
mention of Mao’s horrific mistakes: the Great Famine of 1958-61 that
killed tens of millions and the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution that
shattered the lives of millions. Much to the dismay of many Chinese,
the party still blocks public debate of these tragedies in case it
might undermine the party’s grip on power. Japan Times (Comment) and CNTV (Beijing) and
CS Monitor

****
**** Israel to announce new settlements along with Palestinian prisoner release
****

Israel will announce plans for new West Bank settlement construction
next week, to coincide with the release of 26 additional Palestinian
prisoners, as dictated by the so-called Israeli-Palestinian "peace
process."

The current round of the "peace process" has been driven by U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry. In order to keep the Palestinians from
walking out of the talks, Kerry got Israel to agree to release a total
of 104 Palestinian prisoners, in four 26-prisoner batches every two
months. All of the prisoners have been in jail since before the 1993
Oslo Accords. Thousands of Israelis protested the release of the
first two batches, because almost all of the prisoners were convicted
of kidnapping, lynching or murdering Israelis, or torturing and
executing suspected Palestinian collaborators.

The third batch is scheduled for release on December 29, and there is
so much internal opposition to the prisoner release that Israel is
reconsidering whether to go ahead with it. In addition, the Israelis
say that the prisoner releases create an "atmosphere of terror" that
incite further terrorist acts by the Palestinians. In order to pacify
the internal opposition, Israel is expected to pair the prisoner
release with a new announcement of West Bank settlements -- something
that will infuriate both John Kerry and the Palestinians.

Whether the prisoner release goes ahead or not, this new version of
the peace process never had any chance of success. If the prisoner
release does not go ahead, then the peace talks end now; if the
prisoner release does go ahead, then the peace will end after the
release of the fourth and last batch of prisoners in March. Israel National News and Arab News/AFP

****
**** Pakistan protesters block Nato supply route after new drone strikes
****

A U.S. drone strike early Thursday morning killed at least four
suspected militants. These drone strikes are extremely unpopular with
the Pakistani, and they're condemned by the government as a violation
of Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, it's
widely believed that the drone strikes have the tacit approval of
Pakistan's army and intelligence services.

Protesters reacted to the drone strikes by blocking the more southern
of the two Nato supply routes through Pakistan. However, this
blockage was only temporary, as police ordered the blockade to end.

There are two truck supply routes from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Both
routes start in Karachi, Pakistan's principal port in its southern
Sindh Province, on the Arabian Sea. From there, one route goes
north, through the tribal area, and the other is more southern,
passing through Balochistan Province into Afghanistan. The
northern route has been blocked since December 3 by activists
led by former cricket superstar turned anti-American politician
Imran Khan. Khan's protesters also led Thursday brief blockade
of the southern route.

NATO convoys coming through Pakistan were originally the principal
source of logistical support for the allied Forces in Afghanistan, at
one time accounting for 80 to 90 per cent of all supplies for NATO
Forces. However, Nato forces have for years been seeking alternative
supply routes. Starting on February 20, 2009, shipments began
arriving through the the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a series
of rail, water and road links to deliver cargo to Afghanistan through
the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, and the NDN was carrying
40% of the supplies by 2011. Between July 2012 and February 2013,
28,000 containers came through the NDN into Afghanistan, while only 40
containers moved through Pakistan. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Dawn (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Yasukuni Shrine, Shinzo Abe,
Emperor Meiji, Meiji Restoration, China, Wang Yi, Mao Zedong,
Israel, West Banks, John Kerry,
Pakistan, Nato, Imran Khan,
Afghanistan, Northern Distribution Network, NDN

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*** 28-Dec-13 World View -- Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut
• The spectacular fall of North Korea's number two leader

****
**** Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut
****


Car bombing in Beirut on Friday (Daily Star)

Lebanese people were sent shivering again on Friday when a massive car
bomb exploded in the heart of downtown Beirut, killing six people,
including Mohammad Shatah, a leading moderate Sunni leader in
Lebanon's government, and injuring at least 70. Shatah was
extremely critical of government in Syria and of Hezbollah,
and it's thought one of those two perpetrated the bombing.

The death of Shatah is thought to mark the end of Sunni moderation.
There have been several tit-for-tat bombings in Lebanon, some
targeting assets of the Shia terrorist organization Hezbollah, and the
others targeting assets of Future Movement, the leading Sunni
organization, led by Saad Hariri, whose own father was killed in 2005.
(See "Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock"
from
2005.) Possibly by coincidence, or possibly not, the United Nations
is just about to begin an investigation into the 2005 bombing which is
expected to show that the assassination was carried out by Syria and
Hezbollah. Saad Hariri and Mohammad Shatah were Sunni advocates
of moderation, but the violent death on Friday of Shatah may
end this moderation and lead to open conflict between the Sunni
and Shia factions in Lebanon.

The Syria conflict began in 2011, starting with peaceful
anti-government protesters. Then Syria's genocidal monster
Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad ordered his army to start
shooting innocent protesters, bombing and flattening neighborhoods
where innocent people were living, launching missiles into children's
dormitories and bedrooms, raping, torturing, mutilating and massacring
innocent women and children on a large scale, particularly targeting
Sunnis.

This war quickly began to spill over into Lebanon, but it was mostly
confined to the city of Tripoli in north Lebanon, on the border with
Syria, where Sunni and Shia neighborhoods held frequent gunfights with
each other.

However, Lebanon's chaos started to get dramatically on April 30, when
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad gave a televised speech
committing Hezbollah's soldiers to enter Syria and fight on the side
of al-Assad's army (See "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast"
)

Since that time, the sectarian fighting has come closer and closer to
Beirut, and in the couple of months has particularly targeted the
respected heartlands of the Sunni and Shia political organizations in
downtown Beirut. Daily Star (Beirut) and LA Times

****
**** The spectacular fall of North Korea's number two leader
****

The recent spectacular North Korean saga, where the child dictator Kim
Jong-un very publicly accused Jang Song-thaek, his uncle and the
country's number two leader, of sabotaging the regime, and then
executing him has left many outsiders guessing how this could have
happened. According to an Indian analysis, there are several reasons:

• Jang Song-thaek was driving a government reorganization that
  would put the military under party control, after the Chinese
  model. The military elites looked for an opportunity to sabotage him,
  and they succeeded.
  
• Kim Jong-un was the youngest son of Kim Jong-il, and not ready to
  assume power. When Jong-il became ill in 2008, he working with Jang
  to prepare the way for a smooth succession for Jong-un, and that was
  successful. However, it was always pretty clear that Jang never held
  Kim Jong-un in very high esteem, causing the latter to feel
  overshadowed by Jang.
  
• Jang's career in government goes back to 1972, when he married Kim
  Jong-il's sister. Jang held a variety of government positions, and
  was more widely respected throughout the government than Kim Jong-un.
  He instituted a number economic reforms, many of which were opposed by
  the military.
  
• It has also been reported that Jang Song-thaek has some
  unspecified connection to Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju, and it was
  not a comfortable fact for Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-un needs a core group of supporters in the North Korean
elites, as his father and grandfather had, who will be loyal under all
circumstances. Jang enjoyed a wide network of North Korean elites,
and many of Jang's associates have been executed as well. Without
Jang, there is no core group to support Kim Jong-un, leaving the child
dictator vulnerable to a coup or, at the very least, unable to deal
with the contest between the political and military elites of the
country. Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS - India)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut, Mohammad Shatah,
Rafiq Hariri, Saad Hariri, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il, Jang Song-thaek,
Ri Sol-ju

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*** 29-Dec-13 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 25,000 man 'White Army' militia marches in South Sudan
• Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic

****
**** 25,000 man 'White Army' militia marches in South Sudan
****


These are Chadians fleeing the Central African Republic, heading back to Chad. In South Sudan, over 100,000 have fled to U.N. compounds. (BBC)

There is a very dramatic scene taking place in South Sudan, as an army
of 25,000 young men, with ghostly demeanors from being covered with
white ash to fend off bug bites, is marching toward the provincial
capital of Bor. They're from the Nuer tribe, hoping to repeat the
accomplishment of their fathers, when a similar "White Army" marched
into Bor in 1991 and massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. I'm
sure their minds are filled with the stories that their fathers told
of the glories of those days, having fun slaughtering the men, raping
the women, and dismembering both.

I would hate to underestimate the power of 25,000 young men lusting
for a fight, and it's quite possible that the worst will happen, but
this has all the earmarks of an impending debacle for the White Army.
These 25,000 young men are almost all untrained civilians in a
generational Awakening era when there is little desire for another
war. ( "19-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads"
) Another big difference with 1991 is that the city of
Bor is ready for them, and will be prepared not only to defend but to
inflict surprise counterattacks.

Whatever happens in Bor, there's still plenty of ongoing violence in
South Sudan. Much of the international interest is in the oil fields,
which are contested by the Nuer and Dinka tribes. If they're shut
down, then the global price of oil would increase. There's also the
possibility of outside involvement. Nuer leaders are claiming that
jet fighters from Uganda are entering South Sudan and bombing Nuer
positions.

Over 100,000 people have fled their homes and are hiding out in United
Nations compounds. It is feared that the White Army will attack one
of the compounds, which are not well defended. The U.N. is requesting
$166 million in aid from other countries. Sudan Tribune
and VOA and NPR

****
**** Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic
****

Violence between the Christians and the Muslims has been growing since
March, when Muslim Seleka rebels ousted the Christian president
Francois Bozize, and proceeded to attack the Christians. The
Christians began revenge attacks, leading thousands of Muslim Chadians
to flee the country and return to Chad. France has deployed 1,600
soldiers there as peacekeepers, to supplement 4,000 troops from the
African Union.

The media often portray the situations in South Sudan and CAR as being
parallel -- two countries facing sectarian/tribal conflicts, with
peacekeepers sent in to help bring about a so-called "political
solution." However, what's really interesting is to look at the
differences between the two situations.

South Sudan has oil, and so the U.N. Security Council has passed a
resolution authorizing almost 15,000 peacekeepers to enter the
country. China and Russia approved this resolution, which is
different behavior than they have with Syria, where their hero, the
genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad, bombs neighborhoods where innocent
people are living, launches missiles into children's dormitories and
bedrooms, and authorizes rapes, tortures and mutilations of innocent
women and children on a large scale. But South Sudan is different,
especially for China, which has a major oil deal with South Sudan.

CAR has no oil, and so France is pretty much on its own, though with a
little logistical help from the United States. France would love to
have some help from another European country, but no one seems
interested.

But the really important difference between the two countries is
generational. South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era. This
means that there'll be low-level violence and tribal conflict, but no
major tribal or ethnic wars that slaughter huge masses of people.

But CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French
colonialists. So the people of CAR have no personal memories of the
horrors of their last generational crisis war. CAR is in a
generational Crisis era, and a full-scale bloody war like the 1994 war
in Rwanda is quite possible and not unlikely, which is not the case
for South Sudan. BBC and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Sudan, White Army, Nuer, Dinka, Bor,
Central African Republic, Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Chad, France, Rwanda

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*** 30-Dec-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia pledges $3 billion to Lebanon's army to buy weapons

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suicide bomber at Russia's Volgograd station sends Putin a message
• Saudi Arabia pledges $3 billion to Lebanon's army to buy weapons

****
**** Suicide bomber at Russia's Volgograd station sends Putin a message
****


Surveillance camera catches the explosion in Volgograd train station on Sunday

At least 16 people were killed and dozens injured on Sunday in a
noontime blast at the main railway station in Volgograd, when a
suicide bomber detonated a large bomb just outside the metal detectors
that all passengers must pass through. There are conflicting reports
whether the bomber was male or female.

Ordinarily, this would have been just another terrorist bombing in
Russia, of not much interest to anyone except, of course, the people
who are killed, maimed or hospitalized and their friends and families,
or the people whose lives are destroyed in other ways.

But this bombing is international news because we're only a few weeks
away from the Winter Olympics games to be held in Sochi in February.
Having a successful Olympics event with plenty of international
visitors is being viewed inside Russia as Russia's president Vladimir
Putin has been doing everything possible to convince the world
that Olympics will be safe, and he's spent huge sums on security
throughout the region.

According to analysts I heard, this bombing is a message to Putin
that even if he can protect a small region around Sochi, he still
can't prevent terrorist acts in nearby cities, and these will
continue to get international headlines, drawing attention away
from Sochi.

Who's sending that message to Putin? It's thought to be Doku Umarov.
Umarov is a veteran of the Chechnya wars fought in the 1990s and early
2000s by rebels wishing to separate Chechnya from Russia, and make it
a separate state. Umarov has been on Russia's most wanted criminal
list for various terrorist attacks and assassinations. In July,
Umarov posted a video calling on jihadists around the world to use
"maximum force" to disrupt the "satanic" Olympics games in Sochi.
Umarov is the perpetrator of, among other things, the Moscow airport
bombing in January 2011.

There was a major suicide bombing
of a bus in Volgograd in November by a female bomber. Volgograd used
to be called Stalingrad during World War II, and it was the site of a
major victory, the Battle of Stalingrad, by the Russian army over the
Nazis. Perhaps that's why Umarov chose Volgograd as the site of the
message that he's sending to Putin. Russia Today and BBC

****
**** Saudi Arabia pledges $3 billion to Lebanon's army to buy weapons
****

A couple of days after the murder of moderate Sunni leader Mohammad
Shatah in the heart of downtown Beirut ( "28-Dec-13 World View -- Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut"
), Saudi Arabia is pledging $3
billion for the Lebanese army. In the same announcement, France's
president François Hollande is offering to sell to Lebanon's army any
weapons that it wishes to buy.

Right now, Lebanon's army is so weak that it couldn't defend a
doghouse. The most powerful army in Lebanon belongs to the Shia
terror group Hezbollah, which is funded by Iran. And so, Saudi
Arabia's pledge will mean that Lebanon has two powerful armies, one
Shia and one Sunni, funded respectively by two bitter enemies, Iran
and Saudi Arabia.

More and more, the sectarian conflict in Syria is spilling over into
Lebanon, and into the entire Mideast. Thanks to the actions of
Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad, and his devoted
weapons supplier Vladimir Putin, Syria has become a magnet for
jihadists from all over the world. Sectarian tensions continue to
grow each day, and a sectarian war will not be far off. Daily Star (Beirut) and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Volgograd, Vladimir Putin,
Doku Umarov, Chechnya, Stalingrad,
Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, France, François Hollande,
Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mohammad Shatah

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*** 31-Dec-13 World View -- Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinians cheer Israeli release of 26 prisoners
• Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt

****
**** Palestinians cheer Israeli release of 26 prisoners
****


Palestinian families in the occupied West Bank and Gaza make preparations to receive the released prisoners (Reuters)

Twenty-six Palestinian prisoners were released from Israeli jails in
the early hours of Tuesday morning, the third batch of a total of 104
prisoners who committed terrorist acts prior to the 1994 Oslo accords,
and are to be released according to rules for the current "peace
process" negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis.

Palestinians celebrate the releases as victories over Israel, but the
releases are bitterly opposed by the families of the Israeli victims.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to follow the
prisoner release with an announcement that Israel will build 1,400
more settlements in East Jerusalem, in order to gain political support
within his government for the prisoner release.

So we have:

• The "peace talks" were started again at the insistence
  of the Obama administration.
  
• In order to force the Palestinians to participate, Israel
  would release 104 Palestinian prisoners in four batches over a
  nine month period. That way, the Palestinians couldn't walk out
  for nine months.
  
• In order to get the Israelis to swallow the prisoner release,
  they would be able to announce thousands of new West Bank
  settlements.
  
• Meanwhile, the actual "peace talks" would continue until April,
  but would accomplish nothing.

This is called "diplomacy by extortion."

Actually there have been some unconfirmed reports that President
Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, with many foreign policy
catastrophes already under their belts, are going to use threats to
force Israel to accept some peace deal, possibly with a return to
Israel's 1948 boundaries. Kerry is arriving in Israel today.
BBC
and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt
****


Downtown Volgograd, Monday, after the bus explosion (AP)

At least 14 people were killed by a suicide bomber explosion on an
electric trolley bus in Volgograd, Russia, the day after another
suicide bombing blew up inside Volgograd's railway station. The two
bombings appeared to be similar, and indeed they were also similar to
a major suicide bombing
of a bus
in Volgograd in November by a female bomber. The similarities
indicate that the same perpetrator is targeting Volgograd. The
response is the launching of a special anti-terror operation,
according to Russia's Interior Ministry:

<QUOTE>"In Volgograd, police officers and internal troops
have gone to a heightened security mode. Since Monday morning, the
Vikhr-Antiterror operation has been under way. More than 4,000
Interior Ministry servicemen are taking part in it."<END QUOTE>

Russia is ordering extra security at bus and train stations across the
country, but extra security won't resolve the larger picture: The
concerns raised over security at the Sochi Winter Olympics games,
scheduled to begin on February 5.

Chechnya Islamic warlord Doku Umarov, leader of the so-called Caucasus
Emirate, is believed to be the perpetrator of all three attacks. In
July, Umarov posted a video calling on jihadists around the world to
use "maximum force" to disrupt the "satanic" Olympics games in Sochi.
Vladimir Putin has provided plenty of security in and around the Sochi
resort, spending billions on security to prevent terrorist attacks.
But what's becoming clear is that Umarov can affect the games without
attacking Sochi directly -- simply by attacking any soft target in the
region.

Sochi is the most expensive Olympics in history, and probably the most
corrupt Olympics in history. To recoup some of the money, Russia is
going to need billions from sponsors and investors. If they get cold
feet because of repeated terrorist attacks, then Umarov will have
succeeded in carrying his threat to disrupt the "satanic" games.
Moscow Times and Voice of Russia


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Palestine, Benjamin Netanyahu,
East Jerusalem, West Bank, John Kerry,
Russia, Volgograd, Sochi, North Caucasus, Vladimir Putin,
Doku Umarov, Chechnya

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