*** 1-Jan-14 World View -- The Year Ahead - the 2014 World View

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia takes the lead in world foreign policy
• The Truman Doctrine versus Leading from Behind
• France in 1940: Leading from behind
• Things to watch for in 2014

****
**** Russia takes the lead in world foreign policy
****


World leader Vladimir Putin (Reuters)

In 2011, Russia was very unhappy that they'd abstained in the
U.N. Security Council resolution allowing military action in Libya,
because they felt that the U.S. and Nato had taken advantage of the
situation to go much farther than they had said they would. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
) At the
time, I wrote the following, quoting an analyst from Jamestown:

<QUOTE>"Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its
activities to only the humanitarian acts allowed by the UN
resolution, and then veto any attempt to expand the resolution in
the Security Council, in order to guarantee a continued stalemate
in Libya.

This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectively
control future activities of Nato, since only activities approved
by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be
permitted.

Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied down
in wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These wars
increase Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories,
which is Russia's top priority, according to the article.
Furthermore, if Libya's oil exports are stopped, then Russia's own
oil exports become more valuable."<END QUOTE>

Little did I realize at the time how spectacularly successful this
Russian policy would be. Under the leadership of Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, not only Nato foreign policy but also U.S. foreign
policy have become completed crippled. Whether we're talking about
policy in Mideast, or Afghanistan, or the South China Sea, it's almost
impossible to think of any action that President Barack Obama took
that wouldn't have been fully approved by Putin.

This was most spectacular in Syria. Putin repeatedly humiliated Obama
by forcing Obama to flip-flop on red line after another. Finally, on
the issue of chemical weapons, Obama gave in to Putin completely.

And that's not all. Putin has humiliated Obama repeatedly in other
areas as well, most notably in the handling of Snowden.

****
**** The Truman Doctrine versus Leading from Behind
****

Whether people like it or not, America has been Policeman of the World
since the end of World War II. President Harry Truman made it so with
the Truman Doctrine in 1947, saying that no matter how much it cost
the United States to help others who wish to be free, the cost would
be far less than the cost of World War II. President John Kennedy
reaffirmed the Truman Doctrine, when he said, "Ask not what your
country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country."
( "25-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama blasts Russia and Iran over Syria"
)

What's remarkable is how thoroughly America has abandoned the Truman
Doctrine during the last couple of years under President Obama.
Obama's policy of "Leading from behind" is the antithesis of the
Truman Doctrine, the analog of a city policeman telling the street
gangs to fight it out among themselves, and call him when it's all
over.

****
**** France in 1940: Leading from behind
****

One reader in the Generational Dynamics forum compared Obama's attitude towards that
of France when the Nazis invaded in 1940:

<QUOTE>"I wonder if this is what it felt like before World
War II. The players are different of course. The Philippines or
Vietnam may play the role of Poland, and Japan perhaps France. Or
maybe Japan is Poland and the United States France.

One could see when threatened with "a nuclear winter that no one
could win" Obama would abandon Hawaii and other Pacific Island
territories, plus the Panama Canal to China, and withdraw all
surviving U.S. military forces out of the Pacific Theater leaving
the U.S. west coast as a hostage guaranteeing U.S. neutrality.

As preposterous as this sounds, France surrendered in World War II
to Germany with the vast majority of the French Army intact.

The French Army was the largest Army in the world at the start of
World War II and considered one of the most well equipped with
artillery and infantry weapons. France also had one of the
largest Naval Fleets in the World. Most of the French Army sat on
the border of Germany at the time of surrender with no significant
German forces between that border and the German industrial
heartland.

The bulk of the German army was far behind French lines, near
Paris and other Northern French cities, with tanks and troop
transports, but no fuel supplies that would allow those tanks and
troops to withdraw and defend Germany.

The French just decided not to trade the destruction of French
cities for the destruction of German cities.

One could only guess what would happen in Western Europe and the
Middle East if the U.S. was no longer willing to risk anything to
defend U.S. allies."<END QUOTE>

The situation with France in WW II is a fascinating one, and it really
only makes sense when you consider what happened in France's two
previous major wars.

In World War I, France had fought the bloody Battle of Verdun and
Battle of the Somme, resulting in tens of millions of deaths. It was
horrific. And then what happened? First the Americans came over.
Next, the Germans surrendered, not because they were defeated on the
battlefield, but because of internal political squabbles in Berlin's
government during their generational Unraveling era. And after the
French fought all those bloody battles, who got all the credit for
winning? The Americans.

Also, in 1940, there were still memories of the 1871 Paris Commune,
where tens of thousands of Parisians rose up and killed each other in
a battle that was historically viewed as insane.

In 1940, the French well remembered the Paris Commune and World War I,
both wars with insane results. So in 1940, the mood was, "Hey, here
we go again. Let the British fight this one. Let the Americans fight
this one. We're going to sit this one out, because to do anything
else is insane."

From France's point of view, this worked out great. London got
bombed, but Paris did not, and the Germans were defeated anyway. I
doubt that the French would have openly gloated about that, but
"Leading from behind" worked very well for them in WW II.

Unfortunately, Leading from behind hasn't worked so well for America
so far, as American foreign policy has been disastrously weak and
naive, and has led to problems around the world:

• Russia and Iran have taken the leadership roles in the
  Mideast, making Syria a magnet for Sunni jihadists around the world,
  and creating a rising sectarian conflict throughout the region. Saudi
  Arabia is becoming an American enemy.
  
• Obama's determination to avoid conflict has allowed Iraq to return
  to the worst sectarian violence in years, and is threatening to result
  in a rout in Afghanistan, as America withdraws in 2014.
  
• In the Asia Pacific, former allies are questioning America's
  willingness to meet its commitments in mutual defense agreements, and
  Japan, Philippines and other countries are bolstering their own
  militaries.

The problems are part of a trend that's leading to a new world war,
but that's going to happen anyway.

It was almost ten years ago that I said that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries
would be the "axis" fighting against the "allies," the West, India,
Russia, Iran and Israel.

Ten years ago, the thought that we might be allied with Iran seemed
fantastical, and indeed I was criticized for suggesting it. But few
people would consider it fantastical today. Iran and West are moving
closer together, while Saudi Arabia is moving away from the Wet.

At the same time, it's probably a good thing that Japan, Philippines
and others are arming themselves, as we'll need all the help we can
get confronting China's plans for full-scale war.

****
**** Things to watch for in 2014
****

Here are the major things to watch for in 2014:

• China is continuing to arm itself rapidly, preparing to launch
  a pre-emptive missile attack at America's cities, military
  installations, and aircraft carriers. Only the timing is unknown, but
  now thanks to the Edward Snowden's disclosures to the Chinese and
  Russians, America may be almost completely defenseless against such an
  attack, and China may decide to take advantage in 2014.
  
• Tensions are sky-high between China and Japan, China and
  Philippines, and China an Vietnam, and it would not take much for a
  minor military confrontation to occur, and that could spiral into a
  much bigger military confrontation.
  
• Thanks to the situation in Syria, the entire Mideast is becoming
  inflamed along Sunni/Shia sectarian lines and, once again, it would
  not take much for a minor military confrontation to spiral into
  something bigger.
  
• The Wall Street stock market bubble has gotten so large that
  mainstream financial advisers are predicting a crash soon. (See, for
  example, Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash, John P. Hussman Ph.D.)
  According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
  valuations) on Friday (December 27) morning was 18.98, which is
  astronomical by historic standards, indicating that stocks are far
  overpriced, and the stock market bubble is worse than ever.

In U.S. domestic policy, Obamacare continues to be a growing economic
disaster, and it's expect to cause major dislocations in the
healthcare industry in 2014. ( "1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed"
)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Nato, Libya, Vladimir Putin,
United Nations, Security Council, Syria,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, John P. Hussman

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Putin & puppy - how sweet! It cries out for the caption "Which one is the S.O.B.?"

*** 2-Jan-14 World View -- Latvia becomes 18th nation to adopt the euro currency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un struggles for stability, purging 'factionalist elements'
• Palestinian ambassador to Czech Republic dies in freak explosion
• Latvia becomes 18th nation to adopt the euro currency

****
**** N. Korea's Kim Jong-un struggles for stability, purging 'factionalist elements'
****


Kim Jong-un giving New Year's day speech (AP)

In his typically shrill speech to the North Korean people on New
Year's Day, the child dictator Kim Jong-un appeared to be responding
to numerous national and international concerns about his government's
stability, describing as removing "factionalist scum" the execution of
his uncle and mentor Jang Song-thaek:

<QUOTE>"Our party's timely, accurate decision to purge the
anti-party, anti-revolutionary and factionalist elements helped
greatly cement unity of the party and the revolution and
strengthened our solidarity by 100 times. ...

It is necessary to establish stringent revolutionary discipline
and order in all domains of the revolutionary struggle and
construction work."<END QUOTE>

He pledged a crackdown on "any sort of alien ideology and decadent
lifestyle." By referring to his uncle as "factionalist elements,"
he's hoping to reverse the loss of respect among the North Korean for
having killed a family member, in a culture where family is extremely
important. Furthermore, the word "factionalist" seems to indicate
that there was a power struggle, and he hoped that executing Jang
would help "greatly cement unity."

Although most reasons given in the press for the execution of Jang
have referred to corrupt deals involving sales of coal and other
resources to China, South Korean analysts say that the Kim's fury at
Jang was far more personal in nature:

• Jang was supposed to be Kim's mentor, but Jang did not show
  respect for Kim, clapping his hands half-heartedly at Kim's speeches,
  and even wearing the same kind of suits as Kim, so as to imply
  equality.
  
• Jang had a previous relationship with Ri Sol-ju, Kim's wife,
  before Kim even met her. Jang had established the Unhasu Orchestra,
  in which Ri was a singer. Kim fell for her, but was uncomfortable
  with her relationship with Jang.

It's Jang that maintained good relations between N. Korea and China.
From the Chinese perspective, Kim is too young to be a partner, and
Jang provided a bridge. Some Beijing officials may actually have been
in a panic after Jang's execution. Channel News Asia and Korea Times

****
**** Palestinian ambassador to Czech Republic dies in freak explosion
****

The Palestinian ambassador to the Czech Republic Jamal Al Jamal, 56,
was killed in Wednesday in a freak explosion when he attempted to open
what was evidently a booby-trapped safe. The safe had been located in
the old Palestinian embassy in Prague, and hadn't been opened in at
least 20 years. The safe had been moved to the new Palestinian
Embassy which wasn't yet officially open. The ambassador had
officially assumed his post on October 11, 2013. It was not known why
the safe had been booby-trapped. Prague Post

****
**** Latvia becomes 18th nation to adopt the euro currency
****


Say goodbye to the lat currency

Latvia rung in the new year by becoming the 18th country to join the
eurozone, which uses the euro as its currency. The Latvian people,
with a large ethnic Russian minority, are mostly opposed to the
conversion to the euro currency. This will be the fourth currency for
Latvia in the last 22 years. During the Soviet era, Latvia's currency
was the Russian ruble. When Latvia became independent, it first
adopted a new Latvian ruble and then, a year later, adopted the
pre-World War II lat currency. Many Latvians are extremely reluctant
to give up their lats for euros, because they're well aware that
Greece and other eurozone countries have gone through major financial
and currency crises. However, the supporters of the euro say that
this time it's different. Bloomberg and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Jang Song-thaek, Ri Sol-ju, Unhasu Orchestra,
Jamal Al Jamal, Palestine, Czech Republic,
Latvia, lat currency

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*** 3-Jan-14 World View -- Al-Qaeda militants seize cities in Iraq's Anbar province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Car bomb explodes in Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, Lebanon
• Al-Qaeda militants seize cities in Iraq's Anbar province

****
**** Car bomb explodes in Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, Lebanon
****


Car bombing in Beirut on Thursday (AFP)

A car bomb exploded Thursday in the well-protected Shia / Hezbollah
stronghold in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, killing 5, just one week after
a car bomb exploded in the well-protected Sunni region of Beirut,
killing a leading Sunni leader. ( "28-Dec-13 World View -- Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut"
) This bombing comes weeks after a
twin suicide bombing killed 25 people at the Iranian embassy in
Beirut.

The sectarian war in Syria has been spilling over into Lebanon almost
since it began in 2011, mostly in the form of sectarian gunfights in
northern Lebanon in Tripoli, on the border with Syria. But the
violence in Lebanon has been spreading and worsening since April 30,
when Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah committed his Shia
militia to fighting alongside the army of Syria's Shia/Alawite
president Bashar al-Assad against the Sunni opposition. And in the
last couple of months, the violence in Lebanon has crossed several red
lines, particularly striking at the heart of Beirut, in the most
well-defended sections of the city. Each side is determined to prove
that it can strike at the other side, and that attempts at protection
are futile. AFP

****
**** Al-Qaeda militants seize cities in Iraq's Anbar province
****

The war in Syria is also spilling over into Iraq, where sectarian
violence has been growing since the withdrawal of American troops in
December, 2011. During the last week, al-Qaeda linked forces have
been taking control of parts of the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi in
Anbar province, near the border with Syria. Al-Qaeda in Iraq was
defeated in 2007 by President George Bush's "surge" strategy (See
"Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.) Shia Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki has adopted hostile policies towards the Sunni population,
alienating them, perhaps getting even for the decades when Sunni
leader Saddam Hussein treated the Shia population extremely harshly.

The old Al-Qaeda in Iraq has become the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS), also called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL). During the last few months, ISIS has become a magnet for
Sunni jihadists around the world. ISIS's victories in Iraq are a sign
of the growing strength of ISIS in the region, as the entire Mideast
becomes inflamed along sectarian Shia/Sunni lines. Al-Jazeera and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut, Hezbollah,
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Iraq, Fallujah, Ramadi, Anbar Province, George Bush,
Nouri al-Maliki, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS,
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL

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*** 4-Jan-14 World View -- H1N1 swine flu spread in Michigan and Texas revive fears of pandemic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• H1N1 swine flu spread in Michigan and Texas revive fears of pandemic
• Nearly one million people homeless in Central African Republic
• IMF working paper predicts major global financial crisis
• Was North Korea's Kim Jong-un's uncle eaten by ravenous dogs?

****
**** H1N1 swine flu spread in Michigan and Texas revive fears of pandemic
****


All hospitals in New Delhi were put on high alert last year after six cases of swine flu were confirmed (India.com)

The number of people hospitalized with cases of H1N1 swine flu is
climbing in the area of Ann Arbor, Mich., area, following a series of
H1N1 deaths in eastern Texas, raising fears of a repeat of the
2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, this time with a mutated virus that's more
deadly. The last H1N1 pandemic ran from April, 2009 to May 2010, and
killed at least 18,000 people, though though some estimates run into
the hundreds of thousands. Mexico City was particularly hard hit, and
the city was all but shut down for several months.

The fear in 2009, and again today, is a repeat of the huge Spanish flu
pandemic that took tens of millions of lives in 1918-19, decimating
entire communities. (See "Rapid worldwide H1N1 swine flu spread is raising big concerns for the Fall"
from 2009.) The 2009 pandemic fizzled without causing
massive numbers of death, but the world is overdue for a massive
pandemic, and the possibility cannot be excluded now. Michigan Live and Recombinomics

****
**** Nearly one million people homeless in Central African Republic
****

According to Doctors Without Borders, "fighting, lynchings and violent
attacks remain a daily occurrence in Bangui," the capital of Central
African Republic (CAR), "where the situation appears to be out of
control." The number of people driven from their homes in Bangui
alone was around 700,000 a week ago, and is now close to one million.
These are people who have fled their homes in the sectarian violence
between Muslims and Christians in Bangui alone. There do not seem to
be figures for the rest of the country. France has deployed 1,600
peacekeeping troops to Bangui, supplemented by about 6,000 African
Union peacekeeping troops. C.A.R. is deep into a generational Crisis
era, so it's quite possible that these peacekeeping troops will be
unable to keep the peace, and that C.A.R. will repeat the genocidal
bloodletting of Rwanda in 1994. Doctors Without Borders and AFP

****
**** IMF working paper predicts major global financial crisis
****

Mainstream economists are generally becoming increasingly
alarmed by the imbalances in the global economy, whether
from a stock market bubble or from historically high public
debt, and are expressing increasing concern about a major
financial crisis. In an IMF working paper,
economists Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff particularly
criticize national governments' wishful thinking that
debt can be ignored because it will be eliminated automatically
by a spurt of economic growth. According to the report:

<QUOTE>"Even after one of the most severe crises on record
(in its fifth year as of 2012) in the advanced world, the received
wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that advanced,
wealthy economies are completely different animals from their
emerging market counterparts. Until 2007–08, the presumption was
that they were not nearly as vulnerable to financial crises.2 When
events disabused the world of that notion, the idea still
persisted that if a financial crisis does occur, advanced
countries are much better at managing the aftermath, thanks to
their ability to vigorously apply countercyclical policy. Even as
the recovery consistently proved to be far weaker than most
forecasters were expecting, policymakers continued to
underestimate the depth and duration of the downturn. ...

It is certainly true that policymakers need to manage public
expectations. However, by consistently choosing instruments and
calibrating responses based on overly optimistic medium-term
scenarios, they risk ultimately losing credibility and
destabilizing expectations rather than the reverse.3 Nowhere is
the denial problem more acute than in the collective amnesia about
advanced country deleveraging experiences (especially, but not
exclusively, before World War II) that involved a variety of
sovereign and private restructurings, defaults, debt conversions,
and financial repression. This denial has led to policies that in
some cases risk exacerbating the final costs of
deleveraging."<END QUOTE>

The paper points out that, "In fact, going back to 1800, the current
level of central government debt in advanced economies is approaching
a two-century high-water mark." With debt higher than it's been in
200 years, a major financial crisis will not be far off.

The paper warns that savers will face "haircuts" in the form of
negative interest rates and cancellation of government debt. IMF (PDF)
and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Was North Korea's Kim Jong-un's uncle eaten by ravenous dogs?
****

Jang Song-thaek, the uncle of North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un
was executed in a particularly gruesome manner, according to a report
in Hong Kong's strong pro-Beijing newspaper Wen Wei Po. According to
the report, Jang and his five closest aides were stripped naked and
thrown live into a cage with 120 hunting hounds that had been starved
for five days. According to the newspaper, Jang and his aides were
"completely eaten up." The story is unconfirmed, but because the
paper is a Beijing mouthpiece, the story may indicate the contempt
that Chinese officials are expressing for the current North Korean
government. NBC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Texas,
H1N1, swine flu, Spanish flu,
Bangui, Central African Republic, Doctors Without Borders,
IMF, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Jang Song-thaek

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*** 5-Jan-14 World View -- U.S. sends Polar Star icebreaker to free Russian ship and Chinese icebreaker

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. sends Polar Star icebreaker to free Russian ship and Chinese icebreaker
• Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in control of Fallujah

****
**** U.S. sends Polar Star icebreaker to free Russian ship and Chinese icebreaker
****


Chinese helicopter ferries the Shokalskiy passengers to safety

The United States Coast Guard is sending the Oregon-based icebreaker
Polar Star south to the Antarctic to free a Russian research ship that
got trapped in the ice, and also to free a Chinese icebreaker that got
trapped in the ice while trying to free the Russian ship. An
Australian icebreaker also was unable to help. The 399-feet long
Polar Star can break ice that's six feet deep, at a continuous rate of
three knots.

The Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy with 52 passengers was on a
four-week expedition to follow the path taken a century ago by
Australian explorer Sir Douglas Mawson.

One aim of the expedition was to track how quickly the Antarctic's sea
ice was disappearing because of global warming, but a blizzard and
thick ice caused the expedition to be abandoned on Christmas eve,
despite the fact that it's the height of Summer in the Antarctic.

A Chinese icebreaker, the Xue Long (Snow Dragon), tried to free the
Shokalskiy, but got trapped in the ice before it reached the
Shokalskiy. An Australian icebreaker, the Aurora Australis, also made
an attempt, but turned back before getting trapped. The passengers
and crew of the Shokalskiy have never been in danger, with plentiful
supplies of food and water. Last week a Chinese helicopter ferried
the passengers to the Australian ship, though the Russian crew will
remain where they are, hoping that the Polar Star can free them.
Seattle Times and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in control of Fallujah
****

More than 100 people were killed on Friday in Fallujah and Ramadi as
Iraq's army battled fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS or ISIL), leaving ISIS in control of Fallujah and parts of
Ramadi on Saturday.

Fallujah and Ramadi were two of the main battlegrounds in the Iraq war
in 2005-2008. In 2007, President Bush's surge, in conjunction with
the "Anbar Awakening," defeated al-Qaeda in Iraq, ISIS's predecessor,
but since the withdrawal of American forces in December, 2011,
al-Qaeda has been surging in strength. ISIS Iraq, has taken control
of large sections of eastern Syria and of Anbar province in western
Iraq. There is no longer any effective border between the two
countries. However, ISIS is not monolithic, as there are al-Qaeda
linked militias fighting one another for power within the region.
France 24 and Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Oregon, Polar Star,
Russia, MV Akademik Shokalskiy, Sir Douglas Mawson,
China, Xue Long, Snow Dragon, Aurora Australis,
Iraq, Fallujah, Ramadi, Anbar Awakening
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS,
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL,
Al-Qaeda in Iraq

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*** 6-Jan-14 World View -- Thailand's elite minority seeks to shut Bangkok down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand's elite minority seeks to shut Bangkok down
• Syria's Sunni opposition militias fight each other

****
**** Thailand's elite minority seeks to shut Bangkok down
****


Anti-government protesters rally in front of the statue of King Rama I at Bangkok's Memorial Bridge (Bangkok Post)

Anti-government protesters led by Suthep Thaugsuban of the "People’s
Democratic Reform Committee" are planning a massive rally to shut down
the city of Bangkok, Thailand, next week on Monday, January 13, in an
attempt to gain control of the government. Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra has offered to step down, and has scheduled new elections
for next month. However, that doesn't work for Thaugsuban, because
Shinawatra's Pheu Thai political party has won the last five
elections, and will undoubtedly win the next election. Instead of an
election Shinawatra is demanding that a new "People's Council" select
the next prime minister. Presumably, Thaugsuban wants the People's
Council to be packed with is allies.

Thailand is in a very dangerous situation. Thaugsuban's
market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority do not wish
to give up any power, but they're vastly outnumbered by the
dark-skinned Thai-Thai who do most of the menial labor, and who
continue to support the Pheu Thai political party. So if the latter
stick together, they will always win every election, and Thaugsuban
knows it.

Thaugsuban's "yellow shirt" supporters are apparently planning
terrorist violence on January 13 to get their way, including gunfire
and bombs. If they do get their way, then expect a violent backlash
from the "red shirt" Thai-Thai. Bangkok Post

****
**** Syria's Sunni opposition militias fight each other
****

As al-Qaeda linked jihadists pour into Syria, the fighting on the
ground is becoming more complex. There are now four different groups
fighting in Syria:

• The "moderate opposition," or Syrian National Coalition (SNC),
  including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are moderate Sunni anti-Assad
  rebels who initially fought with the Syrian army when the conflict
  began in 2001.
  
• The Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant (ISIS or
  ISIL) is the modern outgrowth of al-Qaeda is Iraq of the mid-2000s
  decade, and has been a magnet for Sunni jihadists from as far away as
  Pakistan, Algeria and Dagestan. Although nominally an al-Qaeda linked
  group, the group has refused to take orders from al-Qaeda head Ayman
  Al-Zawahiri, thought to be hiding out in Pakistan. ISIS is occupying
  some of eastern Syria through parts of western Iraq in Anbar province.
  In theory, ISIS is fighting Iraq's Shia army in the east, and Syria's
  Shia/Alawite army in the west.
  
  ISIS has been fighting the SNC more than the army, leading to a major
  split between the anti-Assad rebels.
  
• The Islamic Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra ("Victory Battlefront"), are
  also Syrians, but are salafists rather than "moderates." It was formed
  in early 2012, and today is a large fighting force, with 11 big
  brigades. Al-Nusra won't say publicly which side they take -- the
  moderates or ISIS -- but they're said to be assisting the moderates,
  promoting Syrian unity over salafist ideology.
  
• President Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army is targeting the
  moderates, and leaving ISIS alone.

The Syrian army has been taking advantage of the increasing fighting
among the opposition forces. Some people are accusing al-Assad and
ISIS as being allied against the moderates, while al-Assad fools the
international community by claiming to be fighting terrorists in
Syria. The SNC has issued this statement:

<QUOTE>"The Syrian National Coalition believes that ISIS is
closely linked to the terrorist regime and serves the interests of
the clique of President Bashar Al-Assad.... The murder of Syrians by
this group leaves no doubt about the intentions behind their
creation, their objectives, and the agendas they service, which is
confirmed by the nature of their terrorist actions that are
hostile to the Syrian revolution."<END QUOTE>

Al-Jazeera (TV report) and Joshua Landis


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Bangkok, Yingluck Shinawatra,
Suthep Thaugsuban, Pheu Thai,
Syria, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Syrian National Coalition, SNC,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Islamic Front, Jabhat al-Nusra, Victory Battlefront,
Bashar al-Assad

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*** 7-Jan-14 World View -- Mideast 'peace talks' near collapse as Kerry leaves without deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tens of thousands of migrants to Israel protest in Tel Aviv
• Mideast 'peace talks' near collapse as Kerry leaves without deal
• Hamas welcomes the Palestinian Authority back to Gaza

****
**** Tens of thousands of migrants to Israel protest in Tel Aviv
****


Tens of thousands of migrants protest in Tel Aviv on Sunday and Monday (AP)

Tens of thousands of African migrants to Israel, mostly from Sudan,
South Sudan and Eritrea, have been massing and protesting in front of
embassies in Tel Aviv. They are protesting that migrants are treated
poorly, that few if any migrants have been granted refugee status, and
that a new law will allow an illegal immigrants to be held in
detention in a facility in Holot for up to a year with no charges
filed. Israel has a program where it will pay an illegal immigrant
$3,500 plus a one-way plane ticket, if the immigrant will go back
home. Israel is threatening to deport other immigrants.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UN refugee
agency - UNHCR) is joining with international NGOs to pressure
Israel to grant an unlimited number of asylum requests to
refugees. According to a UNHCR statement:

<QUOTE>"Placing asylum seekers in duress that may force
asylum seekers to opt to return without having examined their
asylum claim could amount to a violation. The current policy and
practices create fear and chaos amongst asylum seekers, not taking
into account their specific situation. 'Warehousing' refugees in
Holot is not a solution in line with the 1951 Refugee
Convention."<END QUOTE>

Israeli's who oppose granting asylum say that the migrants are not
refugees at all, but have come to Israel to get a job and send money
back to their families at home. Some Israeli commentators say that
UNHCR and the international NGOs are exploiting the migrants and
sometimes endangering their lives in order to gain a broader political
objective of diluting the population with tens or hundreds of
thousands of migrants in order to change Israel from being a Jewish
state. CS Monitor and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Mideast 'peace talks' near collapse as Kerry leaves without deal
****

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry left the Mideast on Monday, having
failed in four days of intense negotiations with Israelis and
Palestinians to get agreement on a "framework" to guide future peace
talks. Kerry parroted the usual claim that "progress has been made,"
but in the opposite appears to be true. There were bitter
recriminations from both Israeli and Palestinian leaders. The
Israelis said that the Palestinians were "continuing their campaign of
inciting hatred," while the Palestinians adamantly refuse to recognize
Israel as a "Jewish state", and remain steadfast in their opposition
to stationing any Israeli troops in the occupied Jordan Valley, which
forms a third of the West Bank.

There is an April deadline for the current round of "peace talks," and
Kerry will be making one more trip before then in a last-ditch attempt
to salvage the negotiations, before having to deal with yet one more
major Obama administration foreign policy debacle, among many others.
Ma'an News Agency

****
**** Hamas welcomes the Palestinian Authority back to Gaza
****

Ever since they went to war in 2007, the Palestinians have been split
into two groups. Hamas, considered a terrorist group by the West, is
the governing authority in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian Authority
and Fatah are the governing authority in the West Bank. The so-called
Mideast "peace talks" have been between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority, but one of the many reasons why they've failed is that
Hamas opposes them.

On Monday, Hamas' prime minister Ismail Haniyeh said that all Fatah
members, except those accused of killing Hamas members in 2007, would
now be welcome to return to Gaza, after being exiled in 2007.
However, a Fatah spokesman called the announcement a "superficial"
gesture, and demanded that Hamas agree to elections for a government
for both Gaza and the West Bank. Al-Jazeera

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea,
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, Holot,
John Kerry, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah,
Gaza Strip, West Bank

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*** 8-Jan-14 World View -- The 'Battle of Fallujah' begins in Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The 'Battle of Fallujah' begins in Iraq
• Turkey's political crisis grows as police are reassigned

****
**** The 'Battle of Fallujah' begins in Iraq
****


Fighters with guns march triumphantly (DPA)

Iraqi army troops are massing around the city of Fallujah in Anbar
Province in Iraq, in preparation for an attack to retake Fallujah back
from the forces of Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or
ISIL), after the latter capture Fallujah and parts of Ramadi last
week. Clashes have already begun on the outskirts of Fallujah,
following the ISIS capture of an army officer and four soldiers on
Monday.

The situation in Iraq began deteriorating steadily after the December
2011 withdrawal of American troops, without a "status of forces"
agreement with Iraq's government, headed by Shia prime minister Nouri
al-Maliki. The Obama administration is being blamed by Republicans
for the rapid deterioration of Iraq after the Bush administration's
successful "surge" strategy, and is also being blamed by families of
soldiers who fought and died in Fallujah. President Obama is now
desperately searching for ways to help the al-Maliki administration
prevent a complete rout. However, al-Maliki has lost credibility
because of his harsh treatment of and open discrimination against
Sunni politicians and people. Secretary of State John Kerry says that
some weapons may be supplied to al-Maliki, but there will be no
American soldiers on the ground. CBS News

****
**** Turkey's political crisis grows as police are reassigned
****

In what might be called a "Monday morning massacre," Turkey's interior
minister ordered 350 police officers in Ankara from the anti-smuggling
and organized crime units to positions in other departments, such as
the traffic department (where they're presumably directing traffic in
the desert somewhere). The number of transferred officers has risen
to 560 in the capital city Ankara alone, 400 were transferred in
Istanbul, and many were more transferred in other cities. The
interior minister is new, having taken office last month when the
previous minister was forced to resign.

Turkey was shaken last month when three ministers in the cabinet of
prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan all resigned, and one of them
called for Erdogan's resignation. In the case of each minister, his
son has been the target of a wide-ranging corruption investigation
that resulted in the arrest of 52 people, including bureaucrats and
well-known businessmen. The corruption investigation involves
billions of dollars, including illegal money laundering through Iran,
and bribes and kickbacks for construction projects.

On Monday, a simultaneous corruption operation in five cities
across Turkey detained 25 more businessmen and state officials.

Erdogan is trying to containing the growing scandal. He's described
it as a "dirty plot" by his political enemies, led by former ally and
now political enemy Islamist cleric Fethullah Gulen, who has lived in
self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania since 1999. Zaman (Ankara) and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Fallujah, Nouri al-Maliki,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Fethullah Gulen

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*** 9-Jan-14 World View -- Eurozone plummets into deflation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Eurozone plummets into deflation
• Measles spread feared in Central African Republic

****
**** Eurozone plummets into deflation
****


Inflation versus deflation (Don Stott, Silver Bear Cafe)

The eurozone consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 0.8% in
December, continuing a long string of steadily decreasing month after
month inflation rate reports. The "core inflation rate," which
excludes food and energy and so is less volatile, fell to 0.7%. The
following table shows the core inflation rate reported in each of
several months in the last year:


| Dec 2012 1.5%
| Jul 2013 1.1%
| Aug 1.1%
| Sep 1.0%
| Oct 0.8%
| Nov 0.9%
| Dec 2013 0.7%


This has been a fairly dramatic trend, and shows that deflation
is becoming firmly lodged in the European economy.

For over ten years, mainstream economists have been predicting
inflation or hyperinflation, because central banks have had near-zero
interest rates, and have been pumping trillions of "printed" dollars
into the economy. For ten years, Generational Dynamics has been
predicting a deflationary spiral. Once again, it's generational
theory that's right, and mainstream economists who are wrong.
Mainstream economists didn't predict and can't explain the tech bubble
of the 1990s, the real estate and credit bubble of the 2000s, or the
financial crisis of 2007. It was perfectly obvious that there was a
huge real estate bubble in the 2004-2007 time frame, as I wrote about
many times in that period, but mainstream economists didn't even
recognize the bubble, until around 2009, when they started saying, "Oh
yeah, by the way, there was a real estate bubble in 2006. Let's not
do that again." Are you kidding me? Mainstream economists have no
clue what's going on, and have no clue what will happen next year,
except to assume that the same thing that happened last year will
happen next year, and you don't need mainstream economists to make
that "prediction."

The Wall Street stock market bubble has gotten so large that even some
mainstream financial advisers are predicting a crash soon. (See, for
example, Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash, John P. Hussman Ph.D.)
According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (January 3) morning was 18.88, which is
astronomical by historic standards, indicating that stocks are far
overpriced, and the stock market bubble is worse than ever.

As Europe spirals into deflation, it's worth duly noting that Bank of
England Governor Mark Carney is expressing concern about China's
credit bubble. The Chinese credit system has grown to $24 trillion
from $9 trillion in late 2008, equivalent to adding the entire US
commercial banking system.

Generational Dynamics predicts a continued deflationary spiral, and a
massive world financial crisis, as a crisis in one country or market
creates a chain reaction that affects the entire world. Reuters and Telegraph (London) and Telegraph (Dec 2013)

****
**** Measles spread feared in Central African Republic
****

Measles has broken out at the airport in the capital, Bengui, of the
Central African Republic. There are about 100,000 people there,
mostly Christians fleeing Muslim Seleka militia attacks, squeezed like
sardines into the area. Seleka militias have been going from house to
house, killing young men. However, Christian groups are preparing a
violent revenge against the Muslims, leading to fears of a huge
regional war.

A month ago, there were only a few thousand camped out near the
airport. The 100,000 people there now are among the 513,000 total
Bangui citizens who have been driven from their homes. Across the
country, about 2.2 million people have been made homeless, about half
the total population.

Last March's coup by a Seleka leader unleashed a wave of looting,
rapes and massacres by its fighters that degenerated into clashes with
the Christian militias. It's become murder of neighbor against
neighbor, like the Rwanda genocide in 1994, or the Bosnian massacre in
1995.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Central African
Republic is deep into a generational Crisis era, and this conflict is
rapidly deteriorating into a full-fledged generational crisis war
between Muslims and Christians. There are 1,600 French and 6,000
African Union "peacekeepers" who are supposed to stop the slaughter,
but a generational crisis war is an elemental force of nature that can
sometimes be briefly delayed, but cannot be stopped until it reaches
an explosive climax. BBC and Guardian (Nigeria) and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, eurozone, deflation,
John Hussman, Mark Carney, China,
Central African Republic, C.A.R., Bengui,
Seleka, Muslims, Christian, France

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************************************************** ********************************

*** 10-Jan-14 World View -- Uganda and China intervene in South Sudan conflict

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Uganda and China intervene in South Sudan conflict
• China violates its lofty 'non-interference' policy in South Sudan
• China demands approval of fishing in South China Sea

****
**** Uganda and China intervene in South Sudan conflict
****


Ugandan tanks (UGO)

As the ethnic Dinka vs Nuer conflict continues in South Sudan, Uganda
has provoked controversy by send an unspecified number of troops into
South Sudan to support the Dinka side. Uganda's President Yoweri
Museveni says that the troops are purely defensive, guarding the
airport and government buildings. The political opposition in Uganda
is criticizing the president for abandoning neutrality.
According to Wilfred Niwagaba, a Ugandan MP:

“The rhetoric itself denies Uganda the chance of playing a neutral
role," said Wilfred Niwagaba, one of eight Ugandan MPs who held a news
conference in late December rebuking the president for taking sides in
the conflict and for plunging the country into war without the
approval of parliament.

<QUOTE>"We lose what we would have otherwise gained as a
neutral arbiter, so we cannot participate as an arbiter in the
Sudan. And regardless of how finally the war ends, our leadership
will still be viewed as a partisan and biased partner. So the
benefits of us remaining neutral would have definitely outweighed
the advantages, if any, that are being obtained now. ...

We do not know the cost of that war, both materially on the
taxpayer of Uganda, and two, the human cost. Our country now
seems to be involved in so many wars. We are in Somalia, now the
Sudan, the Central African Republic, but government has never come
up to give us accountability. Who spends on these troops? And is
it worth the cost?"<END QUOTE>

His words are interesting, as they might have come from an American
politician talking about American troops somewhere in the Mideast.

There are several conflicts currently going on in Africa. In the
east, there's Somalia, which is jihadist. Moving west, there's South
Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which are local
ethnic rivalries, and Central African Republic, which is jihadist.
According to Niwagaba, Uganda is involved in all but the one in Congo,
though we know from other reporting that the Congo war has spilled
over into Uganda. The other two wars right now are both jihadist, in
Nigeria and Mali. Of the six, the Central African Republic war is
deepest into a generational Crisis era, as we've been reporting in
recent days, so is most likely to explode into mass carnage.

Uganda's prime minister Amama Mbabazi defended the military action:

<QUOTE>"What happens in the region affects all of us and so
we must ensure there is peace in the region. We are fighting a
war.

‘I don’t want you to think that the UPDF [Uganda People’s Defense
Forces] are just war mongers, Ugandans need to understand that
this conflict is for Uganda too."<END QUOTE>

VOA and UGO News (Uganda)

****
**** China violates its lofty 'non-interference' policy in South Sudan
****

Getting back to South Sudan, China's involvement is very interesting.
China's politicians, as we know, become apoplectic and vitriolic
when anyone in the West criticizes the brutal treatment of
Tibetans or Uighurs, and they always insist that these are
"internal" problems that are no one else's business. And China
has no problem endorsing the atrocities and slaughter conducted
by Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad.

But South Sudan is different, and the Chinese seem quite willing to
"interfere." China is in talks with neighboring Sudan to deploy a
military force to protect South Sudan's oil fields. This could
potentially risk a proxy war in South Sudan, since Uganda and Sudan
support opposite sides of the conflict in South Sudan.

However, China has now abandoned all its lofty, highly moralistic "non
intervention" principles anyway. Why? Because China is desperate for
oil. China has invested some $30 billion in Sudan / South Sudan oil.
Oil production has already dropped by 20% since the onset of the
conflict three weeks ago, and more than 300 Chinese workers have been
eliminated. So the People's Republic of China is just as immoral as
anyone else, but we already knew that, didn't we? BBC and Guardian (London)

****
**** China demands approval of fishing in South China Sea
****

China has further escalated the international dispute in the South
China Sea by demanding that all foreign fishing vessels ask permission
before entering much of the South China Sea. China has adopted a kind
of "Lebensraum policy," by claiming territory in the South China Sea
that has historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia
and the Philippines, and using its vast military power to threaten and
subdue any neighboring nation that disobeys its orders. China has
already forced the Philippines to cede the Scarborough Shoal to China,
under threat of military force. The new escalation risks a
confrontation that could spiral out of control. Vietnam has already
stated that it will ignore the new demands. VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, China,
Wilfred Niwagaba, Amama Mbabazi,
South China Sea, Vietnam

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I'm imagining a military occupation of Vietnam, with the People Liberation Army fighting the Viet Cong.

*** 11-Jan-14 World View -- Syria's president al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda against Syria rebels

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's president al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda against Syria rebels
• Christians cheer as Central African Republic president resigns
• Israel announces plans for 1,800 new West Bank settlement homes
• U.S. sends troops to Somalia

****
**** Syria's president al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda against Syria rebels
****


Syrian citizens pray over the coffins wrapped by Syrian flags for the victims who were killed on Thursday by a car bomb (AP)

Nearly 500 people have been killed in northern Syria in the last week
because of fighting among supposedly anti-Assad militias. The army of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was not even involved in this
fighting.

As we recently described in detail,
there are three groups of anti-Assad militants in Syria:
The "moderate" Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the Islamic Front, or
Jabhat al-Nusra, consisting of Syrian citizens who are salafists, and
the al-Qaeda linked jihadists in the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and
Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL), consisting of many foreign
fighters who have been drawn to the region by both the Syria conflict
and the deterioration of Iraq since the Americans withdrew.

It's thought that the SNC and Jabhat al-Nusra are on the same side,
fighting al-Qaeda. This view has been supported by Turkey's foreign
minister Ahmet Davutoglu:

<QUOTE>"What I say is that some circles are trying to show
al-Assad as less evil than al-Qaeda.

The al-Assad regime has not fought al-Qaeda yet. The Free Syrian
Army is fighting both regime forces and al-Qaeda. The existence of
al-Qaeda creates an area of legitimacy for the regime and the
pressures of the regime create [one] for al-Qaeda. Thus they
benefit and support each other.

If the al-Assad regime had not applied such intense pressure
during the past two years, no groups like the Islamic State in
Iraq and Levant (ISIL) could have emerged."<END QUOTE>

The argument that al-Assad and ISIS are helping each other politically
is obviously true, as al-Assad and Russia use ISIS as a club in the
international community to support al-Assad's genocidal atrocities on
his own people. What hasn't been proven is that al-Assad is
militarily aiding al-Qaeda against the two Syrian anti-Assad groups.

However, Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a
subscriber) says that al-Assad has a long history of supporting
al-Qaeda militarily:

<QUOTE>It was recalled in some US intelligence quarters how
key members of the Assad family made their fortunes from hosting
the Al Qaeda networks which funneled combatants and arms from
Syria into Iraq to fight US forces in 2004, a year after the
American invasion, and again in 2005.

Leading figures in this episode were Gen. Assef Shawqat, Assad's
brother-in-law, deputy Defense Minister until he was assassinated
in July 2012; and Rami Makhlouf, tycoon and Assad's maternal
cousin.

The networks they harbored smuggled al Qaeda terrorists into Iraq
as they poured into Syria from the Gulf, other parts of the Mid
East, and from Muslim population centers in the West.

Is Assad at his old double game?

US Secretary of State at the time Colin Powell traveled to
Damascus to tax Bashar Assad with double-dealing and sabotaging
the American war effort. He came away furious over Assad's denials
and on the plane taking him back to Washington, Powell told
reporters that the Syrian ruler had lied in his teeth several
times in their interview.

Those US veteran watchers of the Iraqi and Syrian scenes,
recalling their stealthy interaction, saw a rat in the ease with
which Assad and his security agencies have allowed Al-Baghdadi's
legions to move out of Syria to Iraq in recent weeks.

They suspect that the Syrian president, becoming worried by the
Obama administration's rapprochement with Tehran, betrayed both
their interests in Iraq by opening the door to al Qaeda's access,
exactly as he did a decade ago.

At the same time, fresh intelligence reached Washington about
another double game, whereby Iran and al Maliki are suspected of
deliberately overstating Al Qaeda's battle successes, as a pretext
for cracking down on the very Iraqi Sunnis, who collaborated with
Washington during America's 2003-2012 US presence in the
country."<END QUOTE>

Arab News / AP and
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Debka

****
**** Christians cheer as Central African Republic president resigns
****

Christians in Bangui, the capital of Central African Republic (CAR),
filled the streets and cheered wildly at the news that the country's
president, Michel Djotodia, had announced his resignation, under
pressure from France and others in the international community.
Djotodia, a Muslim, became president last March in a coup that ousted
president François Bozize, a Christian.

Following the coup, Muslims formed Seleka brigades and began going
door to door and killing Christians. Millions of Christians across
the country have been forced to flee their homes, and some groups
of Christians have been forming anti-Seleka revenge militias. Thus,
Christians are hoping that the reversal of the event that triggered
the massacre will now cause things to go back to the way they were,
when Muslims and Christians lived together in love and harmony.
Although Christian neighborhoods were rocking with celebrations,
Muslim neighborhoods were eerily silent, according to reports.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the resignation of
Djotodia will make little difference, and the hope of a return to the
old days is a pipe dream. The violent, visceral attacks by the
Muslims on the Christians were triggered by the Djotodia, but they
could only have occurred because of hatreds bottled up for years or
decades, presumably based on anger and resentment by the Muslim
minority at discrimination by the Christian majority.

As I've written many times, it's a basic principle of Generational
Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are
determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not
by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions
reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so
politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history.
Djotodia could neither have caused nor prevented bloody slaughter
that's unfolding, just as no politician could have caused or
prevented the bloody slaughter in Rwanda in 1994.

CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French
colonialists. The way that this works is that a generational crisis
war is so horrific that the survivors make it their life's work to
make sure that nothing similar ever happens to their children or
grandchildren. However, once those survivor generations are gone,
then all you have left are younger generations with no personal
memories of the last war, and no personal inhibitions against their
ultra-nationalist drives. After that, a new generational crisis war
breaks out, and we're seeing the beginnings of it now. AP and Reuters

****
**** Israel announces plans for 1,800 new West Bank settlement homes
****

As expected, Israel on Friday announced plans to build 1,800 new West
Bank Jewish settlement homes. The announcement was expected after Israel's
recent release from jail of twenty-six Palestinian prisoners who
committed terrorist acts prior to the 1994 Oslo accords, as part of
the deal for Israeli-Palestinian "peace talks."
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is thought to have been forced
to announce the settlement plans as part of a deal with
Israeli politicians who opposed the prisoner release.

According to Saeb Erekat, the top Palestinian negotiator:

<QUOTE>"The new settlement construction plan is a message
from Netanyahu to [U.S. Secretary of State John] Kerry not to come
back to the region to continue his efforts in Israeli-Palestinian
peace talks.

Every time Kerry has stepped up his efforts, returning to the
region, Netanyahu has stepped up his efforts to destroy the peace
process. Netanyahu is determined to destroy the two-state
solution."<END QUOTE>

AFP

****
**** U.S. sends troops to Somalia
****

The Obama administration has reversed two decades of U.S. policy that
effectively prohibited military "boots on the ground" in Somalia,
after the "Black Hawk Down" disaster in 1993. The U.S. military
secretly deployed about two dozen troops to Somalia in October, to
serve as trainers and advisers. Drones from a U.S. base in
neighboring Djibouti conduct surveillance missions and occasional
airstrikes, but except for occasion use of special forces, this is the
first introduction of American troops on the ground. Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Syrian National Coalition, SNC,
Central African Republic, C.A.R., Bengui,
Michel Djotodia, François Bozize, Seleka,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Saeb Erekat, West Bank,
Somalia, Black Hawk Down

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*** 12-Jan-14 World View -- Israel's former prime minister Ariel Sharon dies

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's former prime minister Ariel Sharon dies
• France's Francois Hollande's affair throws U.S. visit into doubt

****
**** Israel's former prime minister Ariel Sharon dies
****


Ariel Sharon in October, 1973 (Reuters)

Israel's former prime minister Ariel Sharon died on Saturday, after 8
years in a coma caused by a massive stroke in January, 2006. Sharon's
death is, perhaps surprisingly, a major international news story, even
though he hasn't opened his eyes or spoken a word in 8 years.

Sharon is considered by many to be Israel's greatest national hero.
Starting with the 1948 war with Arabs, he fought for Israel in one war
after another, often as commander. Many people believe that Israel
owes its continued existence to the life of Sharon.

From the Arab point of view, Sharon's victories in all those wars were
actually war crimes, where thousands of Palestinian civilians were
killed with no justification. The greatest event in this category
occurred in 1982, when Christian Arab forces allied with Sharon's
Israeli army massacred and butchered hundreds or perhaps thousands of
Palestinian refugees in camps in Sabra and Shatila in Lebanon. Sharon
personally had nothing to do with the attack, but many, including some
Israelis, believe that it was a war crime for Sharon not to do
anything to stop it, when he allegedly knew that it was in progress.

As Prime Minister in the early 2000s, Sharon began to transform from a
warrior to a statesman. He initiated the building of the barrier
security fence separating Israel from Arab territory. After the death
of Yasser Arafat in November, 2004, Sharon brought about the
withdrawal of all Israeli forces and settlements in the Gaza Strip, in
a move for peace in cooperation with the President George Bush's May
2003 "Mideast Roadmap to Peace."

When Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died
in November, 2004, there was a widespread belief that
everything in the Mideast would change. It had been thought that
there was no Mideast peace agreement because Arafat did everything in
his power to stop it, and that with him gone, successful peace talks
would go ahead. But as I've written many times, it's a basic
principle of Generational Dynamics that great events are determined by
masses of people, generations of people, and that politicians are
largely irrelevant. The death of Arafat showed that to be true.
Things not only didn't get better, they continued to get worse. In
Gaza, for example, it had been hoped that the Palestinian residents
would create a sound economy and peaceful democracy, but instead, the
Palestinian residents spent most of 2005 trashing Gaza, and using it
as a base for terrorist attacks against Israel.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Ariel Sharon and
Yasser Arafat were very similar men. They were born one year apart
(1928 and 1929, respectively), and they both survived the bloody,
genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. Each had
fought in Arab vs Israeli wars after that, viewed by their supporters
as heroes, and by their enemies as terrorists.

However, what always united Sharon and Arafat was that, like all
survivors of generational crisis wars, they were determined to make
sure that no such war happens again, to their children and
grandchildren. So Arafat may have been a terrorist, and he may have
been approved suicide bombings that killed Jewish children, but he
undoubtedly saw it as the lesser of two evils. Sharon and Arafat
shared a view that the greatest evil of all would be to unleash a new
genocidal war, one that would kill many more Jewish and Arab children
than suicide bombings do. However, their deaths bring exactly the
kind of war closer. Jerusalem Post and AP

****
**** France's Francois Hollande's affair throws U.S. visit into doubt
****


François Hollande and French actress Julie Gayet (EPA)

A gossip magazine has reported that France's Socialist president
François Hollande has been riding across Paris each evening on the
back of a scooter, arriving at the home of his latest mistress, French
actress Julie Gayet. He spends the night there, according to the
reports, leaving his officially recognized girlfriend, Valerie
Trierweiler back at the Elysee palace, where they live together. An
outraged Hollande has demanded that his private life be kept private,
and he's even threatened to sue the gossip magazine. However, he
didn't deny the facts in the story.

Before Trierweiler, Hollande's previous girlfriend of 30 years and
mother of his four children was Segolene Royal. Trierweiler and Royal
got into a tweeting spat over Hollande just last year. All this is
quite amusing, but it's bad news for Hollande, as his approval rating
is now just 15%, the lowest for any president in the past 50 years.

Trierweiler is expected to accompany Hollande on a state visit to the
United States next month. That should keep Hollande's latest love
affair in the news for some time to come. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat,
Lebanon, Sabra, Shatila,
France, François Hollande, Julie Gayet,
Valerie Trierweiler, Segolene Royal

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*** 13-Jan-14 World View -- Iran will 'roll back' its nuclear program, starting January 20

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran will 'roll back' its nuclear program, starting January 20
• Plummeting velocity of money explains deflation trend
• France's 'First Lady' admitted to hospital

****
**** Iran will 'roll back' its nuclear program, starting January 20
****


Iran's foreign minister Mohamed Javad Zarif (Reuters)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the six-month deal
reached between Iran and the West last November will begin
implementation on January 20, when Iran will begin to eliminate some
of its uranium stockpile. According to Kerry:

<QUOTE>"As of that day, for the first time in almost a
decade, Iran's nuclear program will not be able to advance, and
parts of it will be rolled back, while we start negotiating a
comprehensive agreement to address the international community's
concerns about Iran's program."<END QUOTE>

The official Iranian news media confirmed the announcement, saying
that Iran agreed not to expand its nuclear program and to suspend its
20 percent uranium enrichment in return for a limited easing of the
sanctions imposed on the country. According to the deputy foreign
minister:

<QUOTE>"Today, we were informed that the six countries have
approved the proposed solutions and have accepted them. And in
Iran, the relevant organizations have also reviewed and approved
the solutions.

The approval was announced in a telephone conversation ... and we
agreed that the implementation of the first step of the agreement
will begin on January 20."<END QUOTE>

Approval of the deal may have been motivated by threatened passage
in Congress of a bill that would automatically increase sanctions
if Iran failed to live up to its part of the deal. Support for
this bill is high among both Republicans and Democrats, and
even a threatened veto could be overridden. According to
one Republican:

<QUOTE>"I'm concerned that this agreement takes us down that
path where sanctions pressure is relieved, but Iran maintains its
ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Given these stakes, it's
regrettable that the President does not want to work with Congress
to bolster his negotiating hand with additional sanctions, which
would go into effect should Iran fail to meet its
commitments."<END QUOTE>

Among the total sanctions relief over the six months, $4.2 billion is
in the form of access to currently blocked Iranian revenues held
abroad. CNN and
Tehran Times and Reuters

****
**** Plummeting velocity of money explains deflation trend
****

The strong deflationary trend in Europe ( "9-Jan-14 World View -- Eurozone plummets into deflation"
) is puzzling many people who don't understand why
massive money "printing" by the Fed and other central banks isn't
causing inflation or even hyperinflation in Europe, the U.S., and
around the world.

Financial "experts" on CNBC and elsewhere are highly motivated to
promote inflationary expectations, even if they have to lie, because
they want to sell stocks. If they convince you that hyperinflation is
coming, then you'll want to get rid of your cash and invest it in
things like stocks, which can be expected to go up with inflation.
They want to make sure that you don't worry about deflation, since
then you would keep your assets in cash, rather buy stocks and pump up
their commissions.

When the money supply goes up quickly, it doesn't always mean
inflation, especially in the current world where central banks
are "printing" money by purchasing bonds, and the money just
goes into the banks and into the pockets of investment bankers.
Almost none of this money is reaching the ordinary consumer,
who would use it to buy things and push up prices, or
the ordinary business, who would use it to hire people and
push up wages. Instead, it's just sloshing around in the
banking system and through the stock market, where it's been
pushing the stock market bubble to new heights.

In Economics 1.01, the inflation rate is determined by the
formula:

inflation-rate = (growth in money supply) x (velocity of money)

The "velocity of money" counts the number of times a dollar
bill passes from one person to another, which is a measure
of whether anyone is buying or hiring. Here's a graph of
the velocity of money since 1959:


Velocity of Money, 1959-2013 (St. Louis Fed)

As you can see from the graph, the velocity of money started falling
rapidly since the Nasdaq crash in the year 2000, and even more sharply
since the financial crisis of 2007.

That's why there's been no inflation. The money supply has been
increasing because the Fed has been "printing" a lot of money, but the
velocity of money has been plummeting, with no change in sight, and
when you multiply the two relevant factors together, the inflation
rate has been fairly constant.

This is the generational change that happens in every "great
depression." There is always a huge bubble from debt securitization,
where pieces of paper saying "IOU" are traded as if they were money.
This was even true in the famous Tulipomania bubble, where
certificates were issued for tulips to be grown the following year.
In the last decade, the certificates were synthetic securities created
by slicing and dicing subprime mortgage debts, and fraudulently
turning them into AAA securities. Once the bubble bursts, people save
themselves by saving money and paying off debt, causing the velocity
of money to plummet, leading to a deflationary spiral.

The generations that survived the Great Depression of the 1930s
reacted to the stock market bubble of the 1920s by becoming savers and
remaining so for the rest of their lives. As they were replaced by
younger generations with no personal memory of the 1930s, a new debt
securitization bubble occurred, and then burst. We're seeing a repeat
of the 1930s today, with the worst yet to come. St. Louis Fed Velocity of Money

****
**** France's 'First Lady' admitted to hospital
****

France's "First Lady," Valerie Trierweiler, the official girlfriend of
president François Hollande, was admitted to a hospital on Friday for
depression, after a gossip magazine published photos and a report that
Hollande was spending nights with another woman, actress Julie Gayet,
as we reported yesterday.

Trierweiler and Hollande are not married, but they've been together
since 2007, and they live in the Elysee palace together. There have
been recent rumors that Trierweiler and Hollande are becoming
estranged, and that she may be leaving the Elysee palace.

Despite the fact that the French people claim that the president's sex
life is nobody else's business, this has become major news in France.
There is a major presidential news conference scheduled for Tuesday,
and Hollande and Trierweiler are scheduled to visit Washington
together next months. Hollande's approval rating is already
rock-bottom, and this mess is expected to make it worse. BBC

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Mohamed Javad Zarif, John Kerry,
inflation, deflation, velocity of money,
France, François Hollande, Julie Gayet, Valerie Trierweiler

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*** 14-Jan-14 World View -- Chechen terrorist Omar Shishani leads al-Qaeda to victories in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand army coup feared in face of massive anti-government protests
• Chechen terrorist Omar Shishani leads al-Qaeda to victories in Syria

****
**** Thailand army coup feared in face of massive anti-government protests
****




The racial split in Thailand's population between the light-skinned
people of the Thai-Chinese elite minority versus the dark-skinned
people of the indigenous Thai-Thai laborer majority is potentially
reaching a crisis point, as tens or hundreds of thousands of
Thai-Chinese anti-government flag-waving "yellow shirt" protesters
have blocked major roads around the center of Bangkok.

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban of the People's Democratic Reform
Committee (PDRC) vowed on Monday to shutdown Bangkok indefinitely:

<QUOTE>" Today will be written in Thai history. ... We will
shut down the city. We will do it all days and we will do it
everyday until we win. No negotiations. No
compromise."<END QUOTE>

Thaugsuban is calling on his supporters to boycott the planned
February 2 election, which he knows his party will lose because his
elite racial group is in the minority. Instead, Thaugsuban is
demanding that the prime minister resign, and be replaced by an
unelected "people's council," whose members are presumably to be
chosen by Thaugsuban.

So far, the "red shirt" pro-government supports have kept their
rallies fairly small, but there are fears that that could change if it
begins to appear that Thaugsuban might get his way. It's particularly
ominous that Thaugsuban is calling for a boycott of the February 2
election, since the last time that happened, in 2006, an army coup
ousted the prime minister, Thai-Thai hero Thaksin Shinawatra, brother
of the current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

The army is known to be strong on the side of Thaugsuban's elite
minority, and have shown willingness in the past to be violent to the
red shirt protesters, while excusing the yellow shirts. If there's
violence between the red shirts and the yellow shirts, then the army
may stage a coup once more, and that is presumably exactly what
Thaugsuban wants, even though that could mean a lot more violence.
Bangkok Post and AP

****
**** Chechen terrorist Omar Shishani leads al-Qaeda to victories in Syria
****

The al-Qaeda linked Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant
(ISIS or ISIL) killed as many as 100 anti-Assad activists in Syria
over the weekend, and took control of several cities. Al-Qaeda and
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad have essentially become military
allies, fighting the Syrian anti-Assad militants. ( "11-Jan-14 World View -- Syria's president al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda against Syria rebels"
)

The Syrian anti-Assad militants are the moderate Syrian National
Coalition (SNC) and the salafist Jabhat al-Nusra. Both of these
groups consist of actual Syrian citizens, and both are opposed to the
al-Assad government.

ISIS consists mostly of foreign al-Qaeda trained fighters, and is
being led by Abu Omar al-Shishani, a prominent jihadist leader from
Chechnya, and the most influential military leaders in Syria in ISIS.
The slaughter of dozens of activists in the SNC and al-Nusra over the
weekend puts him squarely on the side of al-Assad's army.

Well, this is certainly a complex situation. Al-Qaeda terrorists are
Sunni jihadists who consider Shia Muslims to be infidels or apostates.
Al-Assad is Shia/Alawite, and is being supported by the so-called
"Shia crescent," consisting of Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. ISIS is
also fighting the Shia government in Iraq. Jihadists in Chechnya are
fighting the Orthodox Christian government of Russia, which is
providing an unlimited supply of heavy weapons to al-Assad. So we
have to assume that ISIS's love affair with al-Assad is not going to
last forever.

In the meantime, the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the
Russians are leading the effort to hold a "Syria Peace Conference" in
Geneva on January 22. It's not known if any of the Syrian opposition
groups will be there, or if Iran will be there, and Israel certainly
won't be there. ISIS's string of victories over the weekend makes it
appear that that it will be the next in the list of John Kerry's
failed peace conferences, peace agreements and peace announcements, a
list that seems to get longer every week. Cihan (Turkey) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Suthep Thaugsuban,
Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra,
Syria, Chechnya, Abu Omar al-Shishani, Bashar al-Assad,
Syrian National Coalition, SNC, Jabhat al-Nusra, John Kerry,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL

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*** 15-Jan-14 World View -- Israeli remarks about Kerry grow into international incident

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Le scandale du jour: Who is France's 'First Lady' now?
• Israeli remarks about Kerry grow into international incident
• White House confirms, then denies, a secret Iran agreement
• Egypt to side with the Palestinian Authority / Fatah against Hamas

****
**** Le scandale du jour: Who is France's 'First Lady' now?
****


François Hollande at press conference on Tuesday (Reuters)

At a press conference on Tuesday, France's president Francois Hollande
refused to "clarify" who his current girlfriend is, just a few weeks
before he and his partner are expected to make a state visit to the
United States on February 11. Hollande lives in the Elysee palace
with his girlfriend, Valerie Trierweiler, who is considered the de
facto "first lady" of France, and is expected to play that role in
state visits. But Hollande has been spending nights with a new
girlfriend, actress Julie Gayet, amid rumors that Trierweiler is going
to have to find a new place to live. When the affair became public on
Friday, Trierweiler checked into the hospital with a "severe case of
the blues." Her aides say that her stay is being extended because
"doctors believe she needs more rest."

When asked at Tuesday's press conference to clarify his relationship
with Trierweiler, Hollande said:

<QUOTE>"I understand your question. And I am sure you will
understand my answer. Everyone can go through hardships. That is
the case. But I have one principle. Private affairs are dealt
with in private, with due respect to all parties. Therefore this
is not the place to go into this."<END QUOTE>

He added that Trierweiler was "resting," and that he would clarify
the situation before the February 11 trip to the U.S.

The news of women trouble in France is inspiring the revival of some
previous rumors that Michele Obama is fed up with her husband and
plans to divorce her husband. Voice of Russia speculates that they
"sleep in separate bedrooms," and points out that her husband returned
home alone from the family vacation in Hawaii. Telegraph (London) and Voice of Russia

****
**** Israeli remarks about Kerry grow into international incident
****

Washington is expressing outrage at comments by Israel's defense
minister calling U.S. Secretary of State obsessive and messianic.

Defense minister Moshe Ya'alon is quoted as saying in private
meetings:

<QUOTE>"Abu Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) is
alive and well thanks to us. The moment we leave [the West Bank]
he is finished. In reality, there have been no negotiations
between us and the Palestinians for all these months – but rather
between us and the Americans. The only thing that can 'save us' is
for John Kerry to win a Nobel Prize and leave us in peace.

The American security plan presented to us is not worth the paper
it's written on. It contains no peace and no security. Only our
continued presence in [the West Bank] and the River Jordan will
endure that Ben-Gurion Airport and Netanya don't become targets
for rockets from every direction. American Secretary of State John
Kerry, who turned up here determined and acting out of misplaced
obsession and messianic fervor, cannot teach me anything about the
conflict with the Palestinians."<END QUOTE>

U.S. State Department spokesman Marie Harf shot back:

<QUOTE>"If these comments are accurate, we find the remarks
of the defense minister to be offensive and inappropriate,
especially given all that the United States has done to support
Israel's security needs and will continue to do. Secretary Kerry
and his team, including Gen. (John) Allen, have been working day
and night to try to promote a secure peace for Israel because of
the secretary's deep concern for Israel's future."<END QUOTE>

Late news is that Ya'alon's office has issued an apology.

It's hard to know what to make of this situation. Kerry and
the Obama administration have been stumbling from one foreign
policy debacle to another for months. The Syria "red line"
debacle and the Afghanistan "peace process" debacle come most
readily to mind, but there are others. The Mideast "peace
plan" that Kerry is "obsessively" pushing is almost farcical
in its naïveté, which is the kind of thing that Ya'alon was
saying.

I constantly complain that politicians frequently lie and say really
dumb and dishonest things. Now you can see why. Any politician who
doesn't follow the party line, even if it's utter nonsense, risks an
international incident. The ideal politician is a stupid crook, and
we have many that meet that ideal. YNet and
CNN

****
**** White House confirms, then denies, a secret Iran agreement
****

Iran disclosed on Monday that there's a 30-page side agreement
that's a secret part of the nuclear agreement
between Iran and the West. The secret deal has not been
released. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said
on Monday that the agreement would be released to Congress.
However, a State Dept. spokesman later denied that there was
a secret agreement.

Carney also commented on on a tweet by Iran's president Hassan
Rouhani:

<QUOTE>"Our relationship w/ the world is based on Iranian
nation's interests. In #Geneva agreement world powers surrendered
to Iranian nation's will. — Tweet: Hassan Rouhani
(@HassanRouhani) January 14, 2014"<END QUOTE>

According to Carney, "It matters what they do, not what they say."
Apparently that bit of wisdom doesn't apply to remarks made in private
by Ya'alon in Israel. LA Times and Weekly Standard

****
**** Egypt to side with the Palestinian Authority / Fatah against Hamas
****


An Egyptian woman ululates as others wave a national flag in front of a polling station in Cairo on Tuesday (AP)

A bombing caused no casualties, but at least 9 people in Egypt died on
Tuesday in violence related to a referendum on a new constitution,
with clashes reported in several provinces. The new constitution
forbids parties "formed on the basis of religion, gender, race or
geography."

The new constitution is targeting the Muslim Brotherhood, which was
the governing party for a year before the army ousted Brotherhood
leader Mohamed Morsi in a coup. The referendum is likely to win
approval, since the Brotherhood has announced that it will boycott the
vote.

The army has already declared the Brotherhood to be a "terrorist
organization," and now the army is going further by attempting to
eradicate Hamas, the governing authority of Gaza. Hamas was
originally formed in the early 1980s as an offshoot of Egypt's Muslim
Brotherhood. Egypt's army has accused Hamas not only of supporting
the Brotherhood in Egypt, but also of being behind several bloody
terrorist attacks in Egypt, which Hamas has denied.

Hamas is increasingly cooperating with Fatah and the Palestinian
Authority, the governing authority in the West Bank. Hamas and Fatah
have been split since the war between them in Gaza in 2008, which
forced Fatah to withdraw from Gaza completely. Egypt and Fatah are
hosting anti-Hamas activists. According to one Fatah official in
Cairo:

<QUOTE>"We support the movement and any peaceful movement
against the cruelty of the Islamist group that is part of the
terrorist Muslim Brotherhood organization."<END QUOTE>

Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Michele Obama,
France, François Hollande, Julie Gayet, Valerie Trierweiler,
Israel, Moshe Ya'alon, Mahmoud Abbas, Marie Harf, John Kerry,
Iran, Jay Carney, Hassan Rouhani,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, Hamas, Fatah,
Palestinian Authority, Gaza

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*** 16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam reverses policy and become openly anti-China
• China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines
• China tests hypersonic speed missile vehicle

****
**** Vietnam reverses policy and become openly anti-China
****


Anti-China protesters in Hanoi (Reuters)

Up until recently, Vietnamese policy was to very carefully avoid
offending China, even to the point of using security forces to crush
any civilian anti-China protests. But Vietnam has apparently now
completely reversed that policy. The occasion is the
anniversary of a naval clash between South Vietnamese and
Chinese naval forces on January 19, 1974. China's superior
naval power crushed the Vietnamese forces, and China seized some
of the Paracel Islands controlled by Vietnam, and has occupied
them ever since.

For forty years, Vietnam has never mentioned the battle, for fear of
offending China; it's not even included in modern history books. But
now, Vietnam's state media is publicly marking the event, and printing
numerous articles on the subject, describing how the islands were
taken by China by force, and the heroic actions of the Vietnamese
sailors. Public meetings have been held to commemorate the battle and
there are calls to recognize the "martyrdom" of the fallen soldiers
and offer support to their families.

This highly nationalistic policy change by Vietnam's government comes
just a few days after China demanded foreign fishing vessel ask
permission from China's military before fishing in the South China
Sea, something that infuriated the Vietnamese who, at the very least,
claim to have as much right to fish in the South China Sea as the
Chinese do.

Things have really changed rapidly in the past few months.
China has threatened Japan militarily over the Senkaku / Diaoyu
Islands, and Japanese nationalism has surged. Nationalism
has sharply increased in the Philippines and Vietnam. And
for years we've been reporting on the vastly increased nationalism
in China, especially among the younger generations. With tensions
growing throughout the region, it would not take much for
an accident or miscalculation to spiral into a larger military
confrontation. BBC

****
**** China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines
****

A Chinese media article published over the weekend says that China is
preparing for a military invasion of the second-largest of the Spratly
Islands. Pagasa Island is administered by the Philippines. China
calls it the Zhongye Island, and claims it, along with vast areas of
the South China Sea, including regions that that have historically
belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines,
and has threatened to use its vast military power to threaten and
subdue any neighboring nation that disobeys its orders. This comes
just a few days after China escalated tensions by demanding that any
foreign fishing vessel ask permission from China's military before
fishing in the South China Sea.

Pagasa Island is designated a town in the Philippines with a civilian
population of nearly 200, and an airstrip with 50 soldiers. In March
2011, the Philippine military announced plans to upgrade the airfield.

According to a translated summary of the Chinese media report:

<QUOTE>"Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant
as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and
air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it
has illegally occupied for years. It will be an intolerable
insult to China

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat
plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within
the South China Sea. The battle is aimed at recovery of the
island stolen by the Philippines from China. There will be no
invasion into Filipino territories.

A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines
military buildup on the island."<END QUOTE>

The article said that the attack will occur in 2014. This would be
the second such military seizure by China. In 2012, China used threat
of military force to seize the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines.

Some analysts are speculating that China's new military policy will be
to seize all the islands in the South China Sea, one by one, counting
on the fact that no single military act would force a response by the
United States. China Daily Mail and Philippine Star

****
**** China tests hypersonic speed missile vehicle
****


Chinese media graphic showing potential flight of new missile (Free Beacon / Global Times)

China's military on January 9 tested a new ultra-high speed missile
vehicle aimed at delivering warheads too quickly for U.S. missile
defense to respond. The new weapon is being dubbed the WU-14 by the
Pentagon. The military advantages of hypersonic craft include precise
targeting, very rapid delivery of weapons, and greater survivability
against missile and space defenses. Generational Dynamics predicts
that China is rapidly and aggressively preparing for preemptive war
against the United States. As we've reported on a number of
occasions, China is rapidly preparing new missile systems for an
attack with maximum surprise and maximum force striking America's
cities, military installations, aircraft carriers, and satellites.
America's defenses have been weakened in recent years by defense
cutbacks, and the massive release of secret information by Edward
Snowden may have left America's defenses completely exposed. On
Wednesday, China confirmed the test of the new hypersonic missile
delivery vehicle, but claimed that it was a scientific test, not a
military test. Free Beacon (Washington) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, China, Paracel Islands,
Japan, Philippines, Pagasa Island, Zhongye Island,
Senkaku Island, Diaoyu Island, WU-14, Edward Snowden

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I was reviewing the thread I started for southeast Asia. A decade ago, I reported that the Futurist had an article about a religious resurgence in Vietnam. After a period that could be described as a rather austere 1T. ( I also mentioned that young performers were singing war tunes from the "American War"-but as pop culture?)

*** 17-Jan-14 World View -- Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid
• International concern over Russia's Sochi Olympics grows after Volgograd bombings

****
**** Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid
****


Sochi by the beach, with snowy mountains in the distance

As expected, Egypt's new constitution has received overwhelming
approval in a two-day referendum. According to preliminary results,
the boycott by Muslim Brotherhood members took its toll, as only 42.2%
of registered voters turned out. However, among those who voted,
95.2% voted "yes." The new constitution is thought to be targeting
the Muslim Brotherhood, as it forbids parties "formed on the basis of
religion, gender, race or geography."

After the July 3 army coup that ousted President Mohamed Morsi and his
governing coalition, a year after he was freely elected, Egypt was led
by army chief Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi. However, after taking power,
al-Sisi hand-picked Adly Mansour to be President of the Egypt. Since
Mansour is a civilian, Egypt's Foreign Ministry is claiming that Egypt
is not under military role, and that it won't be in the future.

However, al-Sisi some reports indicate that al-Sisi is a very charming
59 year old man, and extremely popular with women, despite having a
wife and four children. It's believed that al-Sisi is considering
becoming a civilian and running for president.

Before the coup, Egypt was receiving $1.5 billion in U.S. aid
annually, $1.3 billion of which is designated for the military. The
aid included military equipment, including F-16s. For months, the
Obama administration carefully refrained from using the word "coup" to
describe Morsi's ouster, since American law requires aid to be cut off
to a country that overthrows a democratically elected leader in a
coup. Finally, on October 9, the political pressure became too great,
and the administration cut off military aid to Egypt.

Now that the referendum as passed and Egypt appears to be returning to
democracy, Washington is discussing whether to unfreeze the aid to
Egypt. According to a State Dept. spokesman, "It's also important for
the interim government to foster a positive environment for civil
society, to protect the rights of political activists and groups, to
peacefully respect their views on the country's future." Daily News Egypt and AP and AFP

****
**** International concern over Russia's Sochi Olympics grows after Volgograd bombings
****

In late December, terrorist bombings on two consecutive days, blowing
up a commuter bus and the inside of the railway station in Volgograd,
Russia, triggered worldwide concern over security at the Winter
Olympics to be held at the Sochi Black Sea resort on February 6-23.
( "31-Dec-13 World View -- Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt"
)

Russia is promising that the Sochi Olympics will be the most secure
ever, despite the threats by Chechnya Islamic warlord Doku Umarov,
leader of the so-called Caucasus Emirate, to disrupt the "satanic"
Olympics with terrorist attacks. Russia emphasizes the billions of
dollars being spent to create a 1,500 mille ring of protection all
around the Sochi area, and that it's imposing extraordinary
restrictions on anyone hoping to attend the Olympics in person.

What the Volgograd bombings have done is show that Umarov can still
strike major targets outside of Sochi, and that doing so raises almost
as many international concerns as strikes within the Sochi region.

In fact, many security analysts say that the Olympics faces a high
risk of a jihadist terrorism attacks. The problem is that the Sochi
region is mostly wilderness, and can't be entirely protected. The
athletes in the skiing competitions will be particularly vulnerable to
terrorist attack, since the ski slopes can be miles long, and can't be
completely protected.

A threat to the Olympics has come from another direction. Nationalism
among ethnic Russians targeting Muslims from the North Caucasus,
Russia's southern provinces, has been growing for years, resulting in
an increasing level of xenophobia between the Orthodox Christian
ethnic Russians and the Muslim North Caucasians. The Volgograd
bombings have triggered nationalist protests in Volgograd, Moscow, and
other cities. Opposition rallies coordinated via the social
networking site VKontakte, attracted more than 50,000 signatories.
Nationalist pogroms against people from the Caucasus, but sometimes
taking in all dark-skinned foreigners as well, have become a frequent
occurrence in Russia over the last eight years. Russian nationalists
have already expressed displeasure about the Sochi Olympics because of
the astronomical costs and the massive corruption. This nationalist
opposition could become violent at any time, and represents yet one
more danger to the peacefulness of the Sochi Olympics. Jamestown and Washington Times and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Adly Mansour,
Volgograd, Russia, Sochi, Black Sea,
Doku Umarov, North Caucasus, VKontakte

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As I understand it, our guys invaded Iraq while that country was in an Awakening. Our guys were immediately the target of guerilla warfare.

Now, I have considered that China might make an example of a country-with an invasion. Vietnam borders on China. If Vietnam is in 2T, and China should invade.....

*** 18-Jan-14 World View -- Kerry says that he won't be fooled by Syria's Assad regime

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kerry says that he won't be fooled by Syria's Assad regime
• Uganda enters the war in South Sudan
• Hackers use a refrigerator for a cyberattack

****
**** Kerry says that he won't be fooled by Syria's Assad regime
****


Neighborhood in Syria targeted by barrel bombs in December (Reuters)

U.S. Secretary of State is leading yet another peace conference, this
one to be held in Geneva for Syria. The nominal aim of the conference
is to promote peace by transitioning Syria to a new government. On
Thursday, the Bashar al-Assad regime sent Kerry a letter saying that
the peace conference would be about combating "terrorism" in Syria,
not about transitioning to a new government. This could effectively
torpedo the conference, because the opposition groups, whom Kerry has
been begging to attend, are interested only in seeing al-Assad out of
power.

However, Kerry says he's too smart to be fooled by the new al-Assad
letter:

<QUOTE>"Nobody’s going to be fooled. We’re not going to be
fooled by this process.

They can bluster, they can protest, they can put out distortions,
the bottom line is we are going to Geneva to implement Geneva I,
and if Assad doesn’t do that he will invite greater response.

I believe, as we begin to get to Geneva and begin to get into this
process, that it will become clear that there is no political
solution whatsoever if Assad is not discussing a transition and if
he thinks he’s going to be part of that future. It’s not going to
happen."<END QUOTE>

And so I'm quoting John Kerry again, and once again I have to
shrug my shoulders at how ridiculous this statement is. Kerry's
clownish statements are increasingly embarrassing to the United
States.

Meanwhile, the al-Assad regime is literally killing thousands of
Syrian civilians per week, with complete impunity, by using
Russian-supplied barrel bombs. A "barrel bomb" is a barrel containing
hundreds of pounds of explosives, designed to cause massive damage on
impact, and to kill as many people as possible. Why should
al-Assad agree to anything? He can slaughter thousands of
people and no one cares.

Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal monster in today's world,
comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot and Stalin. It makes me vomit to think
that the United States is indirectly providing support for this
monster through Russia.

This is so completely f--ked up. Kerry and the Obama administration
are supporting the Russians who are providing unlimited supplies of
heavy weapons to the al-Assad regime, who is using those weapons to
slaughter thousands of civilians every week. And what's the response?
A truly moronic statement by Kerry about a "greater response" that's
completely non-existent. CNN and LA Times

****
**** Uganda enters the war in South Sudan
****

For the first time, Uganda is admitting that it has military forces in
South Sudan fighting on the side of South Sudan's president Salva
Kiir, and his Dinka tribe supporters, and against Riek Machar and his
Nuer tribe supporters. Machar used to be Kiir's deputy, but is now
leading a coup attempt against Kiir. Uganda previously denied that
its forces were fighting in South Sudan, saying that its forces were
there to protect and evacuate Ugandan civilians.

A long-time Generational Dynamics web site reader, and a prominent
businessman living in Uganda, sent me his analysis of what's
going on, and says that it all has to do with oil:

<QUOTE>"Just thought I'd make some brief comments /
speculations on the subject. Uganda, Kenya and US (and Japan
probably too) seem to be generally aligned with Kiir and against
China and Machar in the current phase of the conflict. The
question of whether the pipeline of oil will continue to flow
northward or more southwards I suspect is key.

And possibly within that alliance for the southern pipeline there
is also the possibility that after the overall political and
financial commitments to the southern pipeline are made that
Uganda finds itself at odds with elements within Kenya, since
Uganda might not want the oil to bypass having value addition in
Uganda by the refinery complex also being planned and invested in.

This is most likely a secondary concern at the moment since Uganda
itself has enormous amounts of oil that it will be producing
within the next few years which could be refined locally and/or
flow as crude through a feeder pipeline to the pipeline bound for
the Kenyan coast.

Wheels within wheels within wheels.

The insecurity of the neighbors has a significant impact on the
economy here. For example, traders of Uganda's goods to South
Sudan face large losses from increased risk factors and security
costs. Ugandan traders are also now fleeing back into Uganda which
also is absorbing refugees as it did during the the earlier phase
of the north vs south conflict. If S Sudan oil revenue is
reduced, so too is their ability to purchase Ugandan agricultural
products and the manufactured goods that pass through Uganda from
Kenya. On the other hand, sectors of the economy that profit from
higher prices for goods in short supply in S Sudan or those
entities which insure such risky trade either through financing or
military protection could be doing okay."<END QUOTE>

VOA

****
**** Hackers use a refrigerator for a cyberattack
****

Hackers found a way to hack into the computer chips in an ordinary
refrigerator, and use it to send out spam and malicious e-mail
messages. That's just one example of a component in a wide scale
attack last month on more than 100,000 everyday consumer gadgets,
including home-networking routers, connected multi-media centers,
televisions, computers, and at least one refrigerator. The attack
took place between December 23, 2013, and January 6, 2014, according
to security firm Proofpoint. The hackers connected to these gadgets,
hacked into them, and used them to mail more than 750,000 malicious
e-mail messages to businesses and individuals worldwide.

You may find it surprising to know that your refrigerator may be
capable of sending e-mail messages, but that in fact is the case.
What can you do to protect yourself? If you have a web-connected
device of any kind, then ask your kids to check all the privacy
settings. In particular, make sure that you change the default
password that the device comes with. Business Insider and Proofpoint press release


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry,
Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot, Stalin,
Uganda, South Sudan, Salva Kiir, Riek Machar,
refrigerator

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Hackers use a refrigerator for a cyberattack
****

Hackers found a way to hack into the computer chips in an ordinary
refrigerator, and use it to send out spam and malicious e-mail
messages. That's just one example of a component in a wide scale
attack last month on more than 100,000 everyday consumer gadgets,
including home-networking routers, connected multi-media centers,
televisions, computers, and at least one refrigerator. The attack
took place between December 23, 2013, and January 6, 2014, according
to security firm Proofpoint. The hackers connected to these gadgets,
hacked into them, and used them to mail more than 750,000 malicious
e-mail messages to businesses and individuals worldwide.

You may find it surprising to know that your refrigerator may be
capable of sending e-mail messages, but that in fact is the case.
What can you do to protect yourself? If you have a web-connected
device of any kind, then ask your kids to check all the privacy
settings. In particular, make sure that you change the default
password that the device comes with. Business Insider and Proofpoint press release



refrigerator

Geez, how fucking stupid.
1. Any device connected to the internet needs a fucking firewall.
2. Passwords: Standardize this shit. I hate current web sites which DON'T let me use all characters on the keyboard. It's totally stupid, this people wanting me to sign up for their idiotic portals. No, I don't want 100 passwords to remember!!! Just send me bills and such over the mail.
3. Uh, why does a refrigerator of all things need to be connected to the internet anyhow? This makes as much sense as having my toilet connected to the internet. Hell, my cellphone isn't even connected because I don't need the duplication of teh internets I have for my computer.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

Geez, how fucking stupid. ... Uh, why does a refrigerator of all things need to be connected to the internet anyhow? This makes as much sense as having my toilet connected to the internet. Hell, my cellphone isn't even connected because I don't need the duplication of teh internets I have for my computer.

Believe it or not, the appliance industry thinks we want to receive emails to remind us that the milk is out-of-date. Seriously!