Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Believe it or not, the appliance industry thinks we want to receive emails to remind us that the milk is out-of-date. Seriously!

Isn't this just another way for them to get into our clutches? Has anyone read the book "The Tyranny of email"? This is a perfect example of such. It has gotten to the point that I won't give my email out to any retail establishments as they just bombard you to death. But by far the worst culprit of all is Publishers Clearing House, both with email and regular mail. Sometimes I get two mailings from them in the same day!

*** 19-Jan-14 World View -- Egypt's constitution approved by 98.1% of referendum voters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Rio's giant 'Christ the Redeemer' statue struck by lightning
• Egypt's constitution approved by 98.1% of referendum voters
• Smog-shrouded China shows live sunrise on giant TV screens

****
**** Rio's giant 'Christ the Redeemer' statue struck by lightning
****


Rio's Christ the Redeemer statue struck by lightning (AFP)

Spectacular pictures were produced when the 130 foot tall
Christ the Redeemer (Cristo Redentor) statue in Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil, was struck by lightning on Thursday. The statue was
originally built in 1931, and underwent a $3 million renovation in
2010. Thursday's lightning strike damaged the right thumb of the
statue, and the local archdiocese said that the thumb would be
repaired. Metro (London)

****
**** Egypt's constitution approved by 98.1% of referendum voters
****

In a referendum that was held on Tuesday and Wednesday on whether to
approve a proposed new constitution, a spectacular 98.1% of those
voting said "yes," though voter turnout was only 38.6% of registered
voters. This has given rise to questions of ballot-stuffing, but
there have no reports of this happening.

However, the army-led government left nothing to chance in the
referendum. There were expensive ad campaigns telling people to vote
"yes" in the referendum, but anyone campaigning against the
consitution could be arrested. Thousands of Muslim Brotherhood
members have been arrested or killed since the ouster of Mohamed
Morsi, so the climate of fear was such that any serious opposition to
the referendum was unlikely to surface. The low voter turnout is
being ascribed to a boycott by Muslim Brotherhood members.

When Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Morsi was elected president in
June 2012, his election was hailed as the first free democratic
election of an Egyptian leader in the millennia of the nation's
history. However, once in office, Morsi stunned Egypt and the world
by taking a series of steps to make himself the "new Pharaoh" of
Egypt, a virtual dictator. He issued decrees giving himself
dictatorial powers, he fired other government officials and replaced
with the Muslim Brotherhood officials, and having his Muslim
Brotherhood supporters unilaterally rewrite the constitution according
to the Brotherhood's strict version of Shariah law.

A referendum on Morsi's new constitution was conducted in December,
2012. It received an overwhelming 64% "YES" vote, but only 33% of
registered voters actually voted. So an army coup ousted Morsi on
July 3 of last year, and now a new referendum has been held on a new
constitution. The "yes" vote was 98.1%, and the turnout was 38.6%.
Officials in the army-led government are pointing to the slightly
higher turnout figure as an indication of the huge victory in the
referendum.

Now that the referendum is over, elections must be held within six
months. All eyes are on army chief Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who is
considered to be a hero by many for freeing Egypt of Morsi's
dictatorship, while Morsi supporters consider him guilty of crimes
against humanity. Al-Sisi is a very charming 59 year old man, and
extremely popular with women, despite having a wife and four children.
It's believed that al-Sisi is considering becoming a civilian and
running for president. Al-Ahram and McClatchy and AFP



****
**** Smog-shrouded China shows live sunrise on giant TV screens
****


Giant television screen in Beijing displaying the sunrise in real time (Getty)

Beijing's smog level reached highly dangerous levels on Thursday
afternoon, forcing almost everyone to remain indoors. The air had an
acrid odor, and anyone venturing out wore an industrial strength face
masks. In some places, you couldn't see the buildings across the
street. Some Chinese newscaster must have had a sense of humor,
because they started televising the sunrise in real time, and
displaying them on the giant outdoor electronic screens that normally
provide advertisements. The pollution level reached as high as 671
micrograms on Thursday at 4 am, 26 times as high as considered safe by
the World Health Organization.

Coal burning and car emissions are major sources of China's pollution.
Many Chinese businesses are government owned, so there is little or no
incentive for these businesses to reduce pollution. China's
government has been trying to use regulations to reduce pollution for
years, but these programs have been an almost total failure, as have
large government programs in a number of nations in the world.
Daily Mail


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brazil, Rio de Janiero,
Christ the Redeemer, Cristo Redentor,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, China

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*** 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge
• Egypt ponders the 98.1% 'yes' vote on new constitution referendum

****
**** Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge
****


Body burning, after being hacked to pieces on Sunday morning (Al-Jazeera)#

On Sunday morning, a Christian mob in Bangui, the capital city of
Central African Republic, lynched two Muslims, hacked them to pieces,
and then burned their bodies in an act of rage. Scenes of this sort
are being reported across CAR, but this one was different because
there's a video of the act that's so horrifying that it's drawing
worldwide attention. One Christian interviewed by the BBC says that
his brother was killed last year by a Muslim, and now says, "If I see
a Muslim go past, I will kill them myself."

Muslim Seleka militias began killing Christians last year, after a
coup by Muslim leader Michel Djotodia. There were predictions last
year of revenge by Christians. The international community
forced Djotodia to step down earlier this month, in the hope
that his doing so would quiesce the Christians, but that hope
was in vain.

As I've been saying for several weeks, this is spiraling into a
full-scale generational crisis war, despite increasingly desperate
international efforts to prevent it. As I've explained several time,
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new
crisis war is increasingly likely.

The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French
colonialists, but it also had it share of the same kind of tribal
violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends,
the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were
perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives
to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or
grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have
passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the
last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from
starting, and that's what's happening now. United Nations and African
Union peacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on it, but
nothing will stop it now.

In fact, young people in CAR today certainly have heard of the
Kongo-Wara war, just as Americans have heard of WW II. But what do
they know? Nobody's told them about the its horrors. What the
Muslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war heroes because
they killed thousands of French and Christians, while the Christians
have heard that their great-grandfathers were even bigger heroes,
because they slaughtered even more Muslims.

A BBC reporter made an interesting comment several days ago on the war
in Central African Republic. He said that in the last few days the
war has gotten worse, because it was now neighbor versus neighbor,
rather than militia versus militia, as it had been previously. This
is a characteristic of a generational crisis civil war, that people
who lived together for decades as neighbors in peace and harmony, and
even intermarried, suddenly burst into violence against each other.
This is what happened in Rwanda in 1994 and in Bosnia in 1995.

This also provides some insight into what's happening in Syria. I
haven't seen any reports of "neighbor versus neighbor" fighting, which
would be characteristic of a crisis war. It's all been "militia
versus militia" and "army versus civilians," which is characteristic
of a non-crisis war that would end, if, for example, Russia stopped
providing an unlimited supply of weapons to genocidal monster
president Bashar al-Assad, who rains barrel bombs on innocent
civilians every day, killing thousands of them every week with
complete impunity.

Militia versus militia wars can go indefinitely, and indeed many of
them do go on for decades, with violence alternating with peace
agreements that turn out to be temporary.

But neighbor versus neighbor wars can't go on forever, because
eventually you run out of neighbors. These are the crisis wars that
reach an explosive genocidal climax, and then there's a peace through
exhaustion. That's what's coming in Central African Republic, but
we're a long way from that climax. BBC and Reuters

****
**** Egypt ponders the 98.1% 'yes' vote on new constitution referendum
****

There are no charges of election fraud in the 98.1% "yes" vote in the
referendum over Egypt's new proposed constitution, but there's a lot
of soul-searching going on as to where the country goes next, and a
lot of questions about the next moves of army chief Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi. ( "19-Jan-14 World View -- Egypt's constitution approved by 98.1% of referendum voters"
)

Put simply, the turnout high "yes" vote, combined with the low turnout
-- less than 39% of registered voters -- seem to indicate that a lot
of people decided to vote "no" by not voting at all. Some are even
calling the 98.1% victory "alarming," because it reflects the climate
of intimidation that prevailed, targeting anyone who opposed the new
constitution, forcing them to stay at home rather than to vote at all.
There are several groups that are known to have boycotted or partially
boycotted the vote:

• Members of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been
  declared a terrorist group since the July 3 ouster of its leader,
  Mohamed Morsi, as president almost universally boycotted the
  election.
  
• The Salafist party al-Nour is even more religiously conservative
  the Muslim Brotherhood, and therefore is as opposed to an MB
  dictatorship as anyone else is. They sided with al-Sisi and the
  pro-constitution forces, but appeared to have failed to rally their
  supporters for a "yes" vote.
  
• The secular and liberal youth movements at the forefront of the
  original anti-Hosni Mubarak protests. They approved of Morsi's
  ouster, and they approved when the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a
  terrorist organization, but they were outraged when the
  military-backed authorities passed a law in November banning
  unauthorized demonstrations.

According to one youth activist:

<QUOTE>"For us it is ironic that the constitution talks of
freedom of speech and yet those who said no to the constitution
have been jailed. For many this is a reminder of the previous
Mubarak era regime."<END QUOTE>

Al-Sisi, who says that he will run for president only if there's a
popular mandate, is wildly popular among those opposed to Morsi, but
is reviled by Morsi followers. It turns out that the 98.1% "yes" vote
does not mean that Egypt is a unified country. Combined with the 39%
turnout, it means that Egypt is more angry and divided than ever.
Daily News Egypt and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Christians, Muslims, France,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Adly Mansour,
Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Nour, Hosni Mubarak,
Mohamed Morsi

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*** 21-Jan-14 World View -- Fears of terrorism at Sochi Russian Olympics soar

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fears of terrorism at Sochi Russian Olympics soar
• U.S. military puts warships into Black Sea in case of Sochi terrorism
• New Nato headquarters building in big financial trouble

****
**** Fears of terrorism at Sochi Russian Olympics soar
****


Sochi 'black widow' terror suspect Ruzanna Ibragimova (Russian Security Services)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin rarely gives interviews to foreign
media, but over the weekend several Western media services obtained
"exclusive" interviews. Putin's purpose in appearing charming was to
assure everyone that the Olympics would be safe, and to encourage
people to come to Sochi for the games that begin on February 6, but
events seem to be speeding past his PR attempts.

Russian police have been handing out fliers to hotels, warning them of
a "Black Widow" terror suspect who may be planning terrorist attacks
during the Sochi Olympics. The name "Black Widow" originally was
applied to women who were avenging the deaths of their husbands during
the 1990s Chechnya wars, but in recent years the term has referred to
any of the increasing numbers of female suicide bombers. Terrorist
groups prefer female suicide bombers because security officials often
are prohibited from searching females, making the females more
successful at being violent.

Russian security services may be looking for as many as four "Black
Widows," including Ruzanna Ibragimova, the 22-year-old woman in the
flyer. She uses the nickname Salima and she's the widow of an Islamic
militant killed by Russian security sources last year. She is
described as being affiliated with the Caucasus Emirate, the terror
group led by Doku Umarov that has threatened attacks against the
Winter Games in Sochi.

In other news, jihadists claiming to be responsible for the two
suicide bombings in Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad) last month posted
a video over the weekend threatening further suicide attacks during
the Olympics. In a message directed at Putin, the jihadists said:

<QUOTE>"That which we will do, that which we have done, is
only a little example, a little step. We’ll have a surprise
package for you. And those tourists that will come to you, for
them, too, we have a surprise.<END QUOTE>

All of these events are raising fears and anxiety over terrorist
attacks, especially among the 15,000 American who will be attending
the Sochi games.

The two jihadists in the video claimed that they were from a terrorist
organization in Iraq. If this turns out to be true, then it will be
karmic justice for Putin, whose support for genocidal Syrian president
Bashar al-Assad has encouraged Russian jihadists to go to the
Syria-Iraq region for training and experience. AP and NBC News

****
**** U.S. military puts warships into Black Sea in case of Sochi terrorism
****

The U.S. military will move two warships into the Black Sea under a
contingency plan to react to terrorism at the Sochi Olympics. If
ordered to do so, they will launch helicopters to help evacuate
American officials and athletes, and they will provide support to
Russian security forces if requested by Russia to do so. In addition
to the warships, C-17 transport aircraft would be on standby in
Germany, and could reach the region in about two hours. CNN

****
**** New Nato headquarters building in big financial trouble
****


New Nato headquarters under construction in Brussels (Spiegel)

Nato is building a new headquarters building, a project that was
decided at the Nato summit of government leaders in April 1999 in
Washington. The budget was 1.05 billion euros, but now the consortium
of firms building it is at risk of insolvency, and is requesting an
additional 245 million euros. The building was supposed to be
completed by September, but now it's going to be delayed 9-1/2 months.
Nato's Deputies Committee has approved an immediate 20 million euros
to prevent an immediate construction halt, but there's hostility to
providing more money. Those who favor providing the money needed to
complete construction give the following reasons:

• High costs that would result from a halt to construction given
  the possible weather damage to the unfinished building, parts of which
  hadn't been fitted with windows yet.
  
• The disastrous effect on the image of the alliance if construction
  were to stop and if Nato appeared to be incapable of punctually
  completing a construction project that was decided at the NATO summit
  of government leaders in April 1999 in Washington.

The construction financial crisis is an embarrassment for outgoing
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen, under whose management the crisis
occurred. Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Black Widows,
Ruzanna Ibragimova, Doku Umarov, Volgograd, Stalingrad,
Syria, Iraq, Black Sea, Sochi, Nato, Anders Fogh Rasmussen

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*** 22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suicide bombing in Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon kills four
• Putin's anti-gay campaign a high-risk appeal to Russia's 'traditional values'
• Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria
• Syria report shows Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin guilty of war crimes

****
**** Suicide bombing in Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon kills four
****


The aftermath of Tuesday's bombing in Beirut, Lebanon (AP)

A suspected suicide bombing on Tuesday killed at least four people and
wounded dozens of others in a Hezbollah stronghold south of Beirut,
Lebanon's capital city. The auto was a Kia Sportage that had
apparently been stolen for just this purpose. The Lebanon branch of
the Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), a Syria-based Sunni terrorist
group fighting Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime, claimed responsibility
for the bombing. According to one eye-witness,

<QUOTE>"We saw a car that was speeding. The driver was
honking like a mad man. Seconds later, we saw the explosion which
sent the vehicle flying up in the air."<END QUOTE>

A year ago, it would have been unthinkable that a terrorist bombing
could occur in the heart of Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut. The
Hezbollah terrorist militia was too powerful, and their headquarters
region was too well guarded and protected.

But that was before April 30, when Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah gave a televised speech saying that Hezbollah would
militarily enter the fight in Syria on the side of the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Nasrallah reluctantly agreed to
enter the Syrian war after being commanded to do so by his Iranian
masters. ( "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast"
) Al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite, conducting sectarian
violence against Sunnis, while Hezbollah is a Shia organization under
the control of a Shia country, Iran.

Since then, there have been half a dozen car bombings in the
Hezbollah-controlled region of Beirut, starting with a July 9 car bombing.
Tuesday's bombing is the
second one to occur in this month alone. Daily Star (Beirut) and Foreign Policy

****
**** Putin's anti-gay campaign a high-risk appeal to Russia's 'traditional values'
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has made international news recently
for his bizarre statements in response to questions about gay people
attending the Sochi Olympics. On the one hand, he smiles warmly and
says that they're all welcome and there will be no discrimination
against them. But then he adds, "But stay away from the kids!"

The strategy behind this campaign is to overcome the problems with a
more standard appeal to Russian nationalism, which could lead to
violence and threaten his power, as illustrated by the recent and
repeated extremely xenophobic violence between ethnic Russians and
Russian citizens from the North Caucasus (Russia's southern
provinces).

Putin, who has been losing popularity, is appealing instead to
something a little different: the defense of "traditional values," a
loosely defined mixture of ideas, including opposition to secularism,
homosexuality and gender equality; support for hierarchical power
relations; deference to authority; and social discipline. More
interesting is the fact that he feels that people abroad who share his
distaste for the extension of rights to formerly excluded groups like
gays will look to Moscow as a defender of their values and thus help
the Russian government bring pressure on their countries. As a
result, he's received expressions of support from some of the more
well-known far-right politicians in Europe, including Marie le Pen of
France, anti-immigrant activist Geert Wilders of the Netherlands,
British National Party leader (and Holocaust denier) Nick Griffin, and
Mateusz Piskorski, an openly anti-Semitic leader of Poland’s populist
agrarian and nationalist Samoobrona (Self-Defense) party.

However, this approach to "traditional values" could harm his
reputation as a modernizer, and may cause many Russian nationalists
inside Russia to view Putin’s cooperation with such radicals in the
West as a signal that they are free to push similar ideas, a step that
could trigger more violence there. Jamestown/Paul Goble

****
**** Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria
****


Emaciated man showing wounds from repeated beatings by rod-like object. There are 55,000 photos like this, showing 11,000 corpses

Western officials are reacting with "horror" at a new report that
details how officials in the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation,
and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale.

The report is backed up by 55,000 photos showing about 11,000 men
exhibiting these signs of torture. They were similar to the images
found in Nazi death camps after World War II, and show that al-Assad
is guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The report was prepared by three top war crimes prosecutors. The
prosecutors spent several days with a defector who had been a military
photographer in the al-Assad regime for 12 years, and whose job had
been to photograph these corpses after they had been tortured and
killed. Al-Assad had demanded photographs of the dead corpses out of
distrust of his own officials, so that he'd have proof that the
killings had actually taken place.

And this was only the tip of the iceberg, as these 55,000 photos came
from just one location out of many locations where this torture took
place. This one photographer photographed almost 20 bodies every day,
suggesting that there was "torture for pleasure" on a massive scale.

A Syrian spokesman asked to respond didn't actually deny that the
torture had taken place, but he questioned the source of the photos,
and claimed that Qatar, which had provided the funding for the report,
was also guilty of war crimes.

A Soviet spokesman asked to respond didn't actually deny that the
torture had taken place, but he said that things like that always
happen in a civil war, and he suggested that the entire matter be
turned over to the United Nations Security Council, presumably so that
the Russians could use their veto power to bury it.

As I've said in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal
monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot and Stalin.
Al-Assad is literally killing thousands of Syrian civilians every week
with complete impunity, using Russian-supplied barrel bombs on
civilian neighborhoods. And he's used sarin chemical weapons on
civilians. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor any gruesome
form of torture, to satisfy his psychopathy. This shows that al-Assad
uses the most gruesome forms of torture on a personal, individual
scale, as well as on a mass scale. And the Obama administration is
indirectly supporting al-Assad through Russia. BBC and
CNN and Full Report (PDF)

****
**** Syria report shows Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin guilty of war crimes
****

The Syria report shows that Bashar al-Assad is guilty of war crimes.
But the same report also shows that Russia's president Vladimir
Putin is also guilty of war crimes.

This is because in 2012, a United Nations war crimes tribunal
convicted Liberia's former president Charles Taylor of war crimes
conducted in the war in neighboring
Sierra Leone. The prosecutor was unable to prove that Taylor himself
had ordered the war crimes -- genocide, rape, torture, etc. But the
prosecutor did prove that Taylor had sold weapons to rebels who
committed the war crimes, thus making Taylor guilty of war crimes
himself.

Based on that 2012 decision, the new Syria report clearly implicates
Vladimir Putin as a war criminal. He didn't order the genocide and
torture conducted by the Bashar al-Assad regime, but he's provided
unlimited supplies of weapons to carry out that genocide and torture,
and he's very well aware of how those weapons are being used.
Reuters (2012)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut, Hezbollah,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Charles Taylor

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*** 23-Jan-14 World View -- Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed
• Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components
• China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

****
**** Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed
****


Protester throws Molotov cocktail on Wednesday (CNN)

Two months of anti-government protesters in Ukraine, mostly peaceful
though strewn with some bursts of violence, are now close to becoming
a war with the police, as protesters hurl stones and Molotov
cocktails, and police respond with tear gas, stun grenades, and rubber
bullets, killing five protesters in the first fatalities of the
protests.

The protests were originally triggered when President Viktor
Yanukovych did a 180 degree flip-flop in November and suddenly refused
to sign a trade agreement with the European Union, as he had promised
to do, choosing instead to accept a $15 billion bailout from Russia in
return for closer ties. The protests became significantly more
violent last week, after passage of new laws limiting the right to
protests in Ukraine, according to opposition leader Vitali Klitschko,
and a former world boxing champion.

There were several hours of negotiations on Wednesday, but according
to Klitschko he ended them with an ultimatum:

<QUOTE>"We did not receive any answers. When we talked about
canceling the new laws that make each of us here a criminal, we
heard that maybe this can be a point of negotiations. I will be
with the people. If I have to fight, I will fight. If I have to go
under bullets, I will. I will stand up for the people, because I
want to live in a different country.

If Yanukovych does not make concessions, then tomorrow (Thursday)
we will go on the attack." "<END QUOTE>

Yanukovych said the negotiations accomplished nothing, and the
government gave security forces extra powers, including firing water
cannon against the protesters despite the freezing temperatures.

January 22 is Ukraine's annual "day of national unity," celebrating
the unification of western and eastern Ukraine in an attempt at
independence in 1919 during the Bolshevik Revolution. However,
Ukraine remains today two essentially different countries, with two
distinctly different ethnic groups. The majority of the population
are ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the western
part of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupying
the east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent there
by Stalin after World War II in order to "Russify" Ukraine. CNN and AFP

****
**** Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components
****

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif directly contradicted the
White House on the terms of the nuclear deal that was signed last
November.

According to the White House "Fact Sheet: First Step Understandings
Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program":

<QUOTE>Iran has committed to halt enrichment above 5%:

Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical
connections required to enrich above 5%."<END QUOTE>

But according to Zarif:

<QUOTE>"The White House version both underplays the
concessions and overplays Iranian commitments.

The White House tries to portray it as basically a dismantling of
Iran's nuclear program. That is the word they use time and again.
If you find a single, a single word, that even closely resembles
dismantling or could be defined as dismantling in the entire text,
then I would take back my comment.

[W]e are not dismantling any centrifuges, we're not dismantling
any equipment, we're simply not producing, not enriching over
5%."<END QUOTE>

White House and CNN

****
**** China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other
****

The Davos conference in Switzerland is discussing more than just
global finance. One Chinese professional attending the conference,
who, according to conference rules, shall not be named, said that war
between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is inevitable
because China and Japan increasingly hate each other.

He outlined China's plans for a "surgical invasion":

• Make a limited strike on the island, essentially just send a
  naval force to plant a flag.
  
• The strike would have great symbolic value, demonstrating to
  China, Japan, and the rest of the world who was boss.
  
• But it would not be so egregious that it would force a military
  response by either Japan or America.

This outline is credible because it's very similar to the method used
by China to seize the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012,
and it's similar to reports of plans for China's military to seize one
island after another in the South China Sea. ( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines"
)

It's quite possible that the Chinese really believe that this idea
will work, since they're as far into fantasy land as Washington is.
This world is deep into a generational Crisis era, which is
characterized by surging nationalism in all countries. China might
get away with snatching one island this way, just as Hitler got away
with snatching the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia in 1938, after
promising "Peace in our time." But the next such attempt would
trigger extremely high nationalism in both America and Japan, and
would certainly lead to a military confrontation that could spiral out
of control.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also at the Davos conference, and
he says that the current tension between Japan and China is similar to
the situation between Britain and Germany, prior to World War I. He
said that Britain and Germany – like China and Japan – had a strong
trading relationship. But in 1914, this had not prevented strategic
tensions leading to the outbreak of conflict.

Abe said that China's rapidly growing military spending is a major
source of instability in the region. Between 1908 and 1913, European
powers increased military spending by 50% after Germany began building
a navy to rival Britain's. Business Insider and Business Insider


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych,
Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
China, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu, Shinzo Abe

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*** 24-Jan-14 World View -- China increases military force in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cyprus military base will house Russian aircraft, naval ships
• China increases military force in South China Sea
• Conflicts arise between Arab and Chechnya jihadists in Syria
• Belgium mayor's underpants stolen from Brussels' Museum of Underpants

****
**** Cyprus military base will house Russian aircraft, naval ships
****


Andreas Papandreou airbase in Paphos, Cyprus

The cabinet of Cyprus has approved a proposal to offer certain
facilities to the Russian air force at the Andreas Papandreou military
airbase in Paphos. Cyprus will also open the Limassol port to
Russia's warships. However, some details have not been worked out,
including the question of whether there will be a permanent Russian
base at the airport, versus permitting Russian military aircraft to
land for refueling or repairs. Russia has a very strong negotiating
hand with Cyprus, especially after Russian depositors lost billions in
last March's bailout –- in addition to Moscow’s very generous 2.5
billion euro loan to Cyprus. It's expected that Russia will use
these military bases as a transit point for arms shipments to the
Bashar al-Assad regime. Cyprus Mail and Jamestown

****
**** China increases military force in South China Sea
****

China is continuing its "Lebensraum" policy of using its vast military
power and threats of military force to take control of vast portions
of the South China Sea, including islands and regions that have
historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the
Philippines. ( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines"
) China is building a large military base on
one of the Paracel Islands that are disputed by other countries, and
will station a 5,000 tonne patrol ship. The ship will make regular
patrols throughout the region, and presumably threaten military force
against any vessels from other countries. Vietnam has accused China
of harassing and even opening fire on its fishing boats near the
Paracels. Reuters and AFP

****
**** Conflicts arise between Arab and Chechnya jihadists in Syria
****

As we recently described in detail,
there are three groups of anti-Assad militants in Syria:
The "moderate" Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the Islamic Front, or
Jabhat al-Nusra, consisting of Syrian citizens who are salafists, and
the al-Qaeda linked jihadists in the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and
Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL), consisting of many foreign
fighters who have been drawn to the region by both the Syria conflict
and the deterioration of Iraq since the Americans withdrew.

There are splits and disagreements and clashes among all three of
these group, but now there are splits within ISIS itself, between two
groups of foreign fighters: the Arabic speaking jihadists and the
North Caucasian fighters, mostly from Chechnya, one of Russia's
southern provinces. Many Chechen jihadists in ISIS are defecting to
Jubhad al-Nusra, because they're apparently being treated as
second-class jihadists in ISIS.

This development has had an ironic effect. With Chechens on both
sides of the al-Nusra vs ISIS divide, they're able to reach agreements
and avoided clashes that might have killed hundreds of people,
including civilians.

There are several hundreds, or possibly a thousand jihadists from
Chechnya who have gone to Syria to fight against the Bashar al-Assad
regime. The stream of jihadists from Chechnya arriving in Syria may
be reduced because the jihadists might become discouraged by the
violent disagreements among the groups fighting against al-Assad.
Jamestown

****
**** Belgium mayor's underpants stolen from Brussels' Museum of Underpants
****

A signed pair of underpants from the mayor of Brussels in Belgium has
been stolen from an anarchist bar housing the Museum of Underpants,
which explores the relationship between politicians and their
underwear. The bar is a well-known drinking spot for Belgium's
bohemian far-Left. The museum has the "philosophical purpose to show
that all people are equal in their underpants, whether they are
famous, rich, powerful or all three at the same time." Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cyprus, Russia, Paphos,
Andreas Papandreou airbase, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
China, South China Sea, Paracel Islands, Chechnya,
Syrian National Coalition, SNC, Jabhat al-Nusra,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL
Belgium, Brussels, Museum of Underpants

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*** 25-Jan-14 World View -- That '1929 feeling' may be back on Wall Street

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Terrorist bombings in Egypt may affect Saturday's revolutionary celebrations
• That '1929 feeling' may be back on Wall Street
• 'Geneva II' Syria peace conference is more political play-acting

****
**** Terrorist bombings in Egypt may affect Saturday's revolutionary celebrations
****


Huge crater in front of Cairo police station from Friday's terrorist bombing (Reuters)

Egypt's terrorist bombings had previously been taking place far away
from Cairo, in the Sinai or in northern Egypt, but as of Friday
morning, have now come to the most well protected part of central
Cairo. A large terrorist blast exploded at the police building in
central Cairo, killing four people and injuring 76 others. Hours
later, once person was killed by a bombing in Giza. Late Friday
morning, a third explosion at a Giza police station near the pyramids
caused no casualties. But in the afternoon, a bombing at a Giza movie
theatre left one person dead.

The spate of terrorist bombings has infuriated the public, who are
widely blaming the Muslim Brotherhood for the bombings, and praising
army general Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi for declaring MB to be a
terrorist organization.

The Muslim Brotherhood says they had nothing to do with the bombings,
al-Qaeda linked Sinai terrorist group, while
Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Bayt al Maqdis or Champions of Jerusalem)
is claiming credit for the bombings. This group has
claimed credit for several major terrorist bombings in the past.

Saturday is the third anniversary of the start of the 2011 Egyptian
Revolution that led to the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. Many political
groups had planned big public celebrations on Saturday, but some of
them are being pulled back, giving as a reason fear of violent clashes
with the Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and BBC

****
**** That '1929 feeling' may be back on Wall Street
****

This week is the first time in a long time that I've thought that the
market has the "1929 feeling." Those feelings only became stronger on
Friday with the dramatic 2% plunge in Wall Street stocks. Financial
pundits gave these reasons for the plunge:

• There has been a flight from so-called "emerging markets" in
  the past week that turned into a full-scale rout on Friday, with
  Turkey, Argentina and Ukraine being hit the hardest. This flight
  affected both stock markets and foreign currency markets, as investors
  bought "safe-haven" assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, the yen, and
  gold.
  
• At the global financial conference at Davos this week, there was
  widespread anxiety of a "hard landing" in China, meaning that China's
  growth may be on the verge of falling much more sharply than
  previously thought. In addition, there are fears of war between China
  and Japan.
  
• The amount of money sloshing around the banking system is going to
  decrease as the Federal Reserve "tapers" its bond-buying program. It
  has been injecting $85 billion per month of new money into the
  banking system, but the amount will be lowered to $75 billion next
  month.

These are all likely to be long-term trends, and the sense of
gloom that I'm detecting suggests that some change might be
about to happen.

But this could all fall apart in the next few days. Perhaps Wall
Street will recover from the big losses this week, and start growing
again. We know that a crash is coming, but it's impossible to
predict the timing. All we can do is guess, and depend on
our "feelings," which can be wrong.

By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (January 24) morning was 18.20, which is lower
than the 18.72 of last month, but still astronomically high. It was
only as recently as 1982 that the P/E index was 6, and it's about due
to return to that level, as it does periodically, every 30 years or
so. This would push the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its current
15,900 down to the 3,000-4,000 level, or lower, which is what
Generational Dynamics is predicting.

So if that "1929 feeling" is going to turn into a 1929 crash at this
time, then there are some things to look for in the next two months.
The main thing to look for would be a gradual net fall, combined with
a couple of wild fluctuations -- say, a 6% fall, then an 8% rise. In
fact, if you take into account what's been happening in emerging
markets, then it may be fair to say that this is already happening.
This would set what might be called the "panic mood," where people
would be anxious to avoid the next 6% fall, and that would trigger a
much bigger fall, and a spiral downward. Reuters and AFP

****
**** 'Geneva II' Syria peace conference is more political play-acting
****

A new Syria peace conference is going on in Geneva, Switzerland,
and it certainly qualifies as a bizarre bit of political theatre.
It's called "Geneva II" because there was an earlier Syrian
peace conference in Geneva in June, 2012, now called "Geneva I."
There was a communique issued after Geneva I, and it called for
an end to the Syrian civil war by the resignation of president
Bashar al-Assad, and instituting a new transitional government
with members from the former al-Assad government, as well
as members from the opposition.

Well, now it's time for Geneva II, and here are the realities:

• Bashar al-Assad will most certainly not agree to step
  down. He's winning on the battlefield, and his opponents are
  in disarray. Thus, he will absolutely, positively not agree
  to the terms of the Geneva I communique.
  
• The opposition, represented by the Syrian National Council (SNC)
  will not agree to anything unless al-Assad agrees to the terms of the
  Geneva I communique, and agrees to step down. Anything else would be
  viewed as total capitulation by the SNC. Even if the SNC did agree to
  some kind of truce with al-Assad, which is impossible, the agreement
  would not apply to the other opposition groups, Jabhat al-Nusra and
  ISIS.

So on Thursday, the two sides were in separate rooms, but they were
supposed to meet with one another in the same room on Friday. Well
that was canceled because of the above disagreement. But then UN and
Arab League Special Envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi stepped into the
picture. He played "shuttle diplomacy," moving back and forth between
the two rooms, and finally was able to announced that the two sides
would meet in the same room on Saturday!! And this was described as a
"major breakthrough"!!

Even if the civil war did end, on whatever terms imaginable, there
would still be a resumption of peaceful protests. And remember that's
how the war started -- the genocidal monster al-Assad responded to the
peaceful protests by flattening civilian neighborhoods and torturing
children. When the peaceful protests began again, what would al-Assad
do next? Irish Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Cairo, Muslim Brotherhood,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, Champions of Jerusalem,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Hosni Mubarak,
Turkey, Argentina, Ukraine, China, Japan,
Syria, Geneva I, Geneva II, Bashar al-Assad,
Syrian National Council, SNC, Arab League,
Lakhdar Brahimi

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This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 29 die in clashes at three-way commemoration of Egypt's revolution
• HSBC cash withdrawal restrictions raise fears of bank runs
• Ukraine anti-government protests continue, despite offer of compromise
• France's president Hollande announces end of relationship with Trierweiler

****
**** 29 die in clashes at three-way commemoration of Egypt's revolution
****


Supporters of Egypt's government cheer with national flags (Al-Ahram)

Clashes killed 29 people, as hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took
to the streets on Saturday to commemorate the third anniversary of the
January 25, 2011, Egyptian Revolution, which resulted in the ouster of
Hosni Mubarak. However, the demonstrators today are not nearly as
united as they were in 2011. On Saturday, there were three distinct
groups of demonstrators:

• Pro-government demonstrators, many waving Egyptian flags
  around Tahrir Square, and many calling for General Abdel al-Fattah
  al-Sisi to run for President of Egypt.
  
• Muslim Brotherhood supporters, demanding that Mohamed Morsi,
  ousted by an army coup on July 3, be reinstated as Egypt's president.
  Several MB supporters were killed or arrested on Saturday.
  
• Secular and independent groups, opposed to both the Muslim
  Brotherhood and the military government.

The only ones allowed into Tahrir Square were the pro-government
demonstrators. However, all three groups were marching, and the army
used teargas and birdshot to disperse the crowds. 29 people died in
the resulting clashes.

Today the major debate in Egypt is whether the country if better off
or worse off than under Mubarak. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and BBC

****
**** HSBC cash withdrawal restrictions raise fears of bank runs
****

Some customers of London-based international banking firm HSBC are
being told that they can't make withdrawals above $5,000 or so without
being questioned about the reason for the withdrawal. In some cases
the bank has been demanding documentation before the withdrawal can be
permitted, although they now say they've reversed that policy.

HSBC is saying that they're just trying to protect their customers,
and they issued this statement:

<QUOTE>"We ask our customers about the purpose of large cash
withdrawals when they are unusual and out of keeping with the
normal running of their account. Since last November, in some
instances we may have also asked these customers to show us
evidence of what the cash is required for.

The reason being we have an obligation to protect our customers,
and to minimize the opportunity for financial crime. However,
following feedback, we are immediately updating guidance to our
customer facing staff to reiterate that it is not mandatory for
customers to provide documentary evidence for large cash
withdrawals, and on its own, failure to show evidence is not a
reason to refuse a withdrawal. We are writing to apologize to any
customer who has been given incorrect information and
inconvenienced."<END QUOTE>

This announcement is triggering visceral fears of bank runs among a
lot of people who remember the Cyprus bank bailout last year that kept
people from withdrawing more then 300 euros per day, and permanently
cost large depositors 40-80% of their deposits.

It's also reminiscent of HSBC's 2007 announcement that it had $1.75 billion in bad debts,
resulting
from bad subprime mortgages written by subsidiary Household Finance
Corp., which HSBC had acquired in 2003.

Then, last year, HSBC was found to have, for five years, been
laundering billions of dollars for Mexican drug mobs, organizations
linked to al-Qaeda and Hezbollah, and Russian gangsters.

So is HSBC in trouble again? Or are these new policies really all
about protecting their customers? I guess each depositor will have to
make his own decision. BBC and ZeroHedge and Rollin Stone (Feb 2013)

****
**** Ukraine anti-government protests continue, despite offer of compromise
****

Anti-government protests in Ukraine are spreading from the capital
city, Kiev, into cities in the western part of the nation. Western
Ukraine is populated by ethnic Ukrainians, who largely oppose the
current Russia-linked government, and who want Ukraine to have closer
ties to Europe. Eastern Ukraine is populated by ethnic Russians, who
prefer closer ties to Russia.

Protests in Kiev are large, but remain mostly peaceful. President
Viktor Yanukovych offered several concessions to the opposition,
including the appointment of anti-government activists to ministerial
positions in the government. However, the opposition is demanding
that Yanukovych step down, and that new elections be held. BBC

****
**** France's president Hollande announces end of relationship with Trierweiler
****


Valérie Trierweiler, 48 (left) and Julie Gayet, 41 (AFP)

France's President François Hollande reportedly met for lunch on
Thursday with his girlfriend Valérie Trierweiler, who has lived with
him in the Élysée Palace since he took office last year. On
Saturday, Hollande called an AFP reporter and gave this quote:

<QUOTE>"I wish to make it known that I have ended my
partnership with Valerie Trierweiler."<END QUOTE>

This harsh statement indicates that the luncheon meeting was not a
pleasant one.

The announcement comes just as Trierweiler is just about to leave for
India on a humanitarian trip, and a couple of weeks before Hollande
will be making a state visit to the United States. Apparently
Trierweiler will still go to India, but will not accompany Hollande on
the state visit. Trierweiler is expected to resume her career as a
journalist.

Trierweiler's relationship with 59 year old Hollande unraveled quickly
after press reports two weeks ago indicated that Hollande was spending
nights with an actress, Julie Gayet. Trierweiler and Hollande share
something in common: She's France's least popular "first lady" in
decades, while he's the least popular prime minister in decades. It
is not expected that Gayet will move into the Élysée Palace. AFP and Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Hosni Mubarak, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
HSBC, Household Finance Corp.,
Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych,
France, François Hollande, Julie Gayet, Valérie Trierweiler

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*** 27-Jan-14 World View -- Hungary's 'fascist' Jobbik party leader Gabor Vona speaks in London

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hungary's 'fascist' Jobbik party leader Gabor Vona speaks in London
• Hussman's analysis of market instability
• China banks halt domestic cash transfers as fund bankruptcy looms

****
**** Hungary's 'fascist' Jobbik party leader Gabor Vona speaks in London
****


Gabor Vona in London on Sunday, carrying a Hungarian flag, protected from anti-fascist activists by police

Gabor Vona, described as "one of Europe's most electorally successful
fascists" spoke on Sunday to UK-based sympathizers of his Hungarian
Jobbik Party. Demonstrations by anti-fascist campaigners prevented
Vona from giving his speech at the planned venue, so he ended up
speaking to around 100 supporters at Speakers' Corner in Hyde Park.
The Jobbik party, which is considered anti-Roma and anti-Semitic, is
the third biggest party in Hungary, with 43 seats in the national
parliament. It's thought that Vona would like to create a "common
core" of parties across Europe that would include the British National
Party, the French National Front, Holland's Party for Freedom, and
Greece's Golden Dawn. Each of these parties is, to a greater or
lesser extent, anti-immigrant, anti-Roma and/or anti-Semitic. These
nationalist sentiments have been growing around Europe, for the first
time since World War II. According to the European Union Agency for
Fundamental Rights, anti-Semitism has been skyrocketing in Europe,
with some 66% of European Jews saying that in 2013, anti-Semitism has
significantly impacted their lives. Independent (London) and Israel National News

****
**** Hussman's analysis of market instability
****

A major correction or crash on Wall Street is long overdue ( "25-Jan-14 World View -- That '1929 feeling' may be back on Wall Street"
), and while the timing
cannot be predicted with certainty, some analysts are saying
that there are signs that it's not far off.

The Hussman Funds manager and analyst John P. Hussman is describing a
number of factors leading to market instability:

• "The extreme syndrome" of overvalued, overbought, overbullish,
  rising-yield conditions exclusively seen at the 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000
  and 2007 market peaks.
  
• "Bullish sentiment" extremely high, with 57.7% of advisors
  recommending "buy," while only 14.8% recommend "sell" -- the most
  lopsided bullish versus bearish sentiment in decades. In other words,
  when everyone is telling you the same thing, then it's time to be very
  nervous.
  
• New York Stock Exchange margin debt now at 2.5% of GDP – an amount
  equivalent to 26% of all commercial and industrial loans in the
  U.S. banking system. The 1929 crash was blamed by many economists on
  high margin debt.
  
• Currency collapses in Argentina and Venezuela.
  
• Fresh credit strains and industrial shortfall in China.

Each one of these factors, by itself, is not of concern. But the
combination of such factors, taken together, creates a state of market
instability, such that any small disturbance may trigger a crisis or
crash.

Hussman also expresses concerns about high levels of corporate debt,
and adds: "In any event, however, the objective evidence speaks well
enough for itself across history. If accuracy in projecting actual
subsequent market returns is a standard by which alternative valuation
metrics should be judged, then the U.S. equity market is trading about
double its historical norms, and double the level at which investors
should expect historically normal returns."

As I've been saying repeatedly, Generational Dynamics predicts a major
stock market crash to the Dow 3000 level or lower. It's impossible to
predict the exact timing, but there are increasing signs that the time
is close. John P. Hussman

****
**** China banks halt domestic cash transfers as fund bankruptcy looms
****


People's Bank of China

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has issued an order to commercial
banks to halt all cash transfers for 3 days, and to suspend
conversions of renminbi to other currencies for 9 days. China's banks
are giving no explanation except "system maintenance." China's
week-long Lunar New Year holiday begins on January 31, there's a high
demand for cash around this time, and banks are desperate to avoid a
cash crunch. Although China's government has $3.82 trillion in
foreign exchange reserves, this crisis is over the domestic currency
(the renminbi), where dollars aren't of much use.

America's financial crisis began when the credit bubble, built on
over-leveraged debts based on subprime mortgages, began to burst. The
collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008
triggered a worldwide financial crisis.

China has a much larger shadow credit bubble, based on $4.8 trillion
of over-leveraged loans made in its shadow banking system, and is now
facing a major bankruptcy in its shadow banking system on Friday,
January 31.

Just as American investment banks had sold trillions in fraudulent
securities based on faulty subprime mortgages, the The Industrial and
Commercial Bank of China sold $496.2 million in fraudulent securities
called the "Credit-Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product."
The whole deal was full of corruption, and now the bill is coming due
on Friday, when payment on the securities is due to investors.

According to Moodys,

<QUOTE>"This case reminds people of Lehman minibonds because
complicated credit-linked products were sold to individual
investors via bank channels. It’s not clear whether misselling
was involved due to lack of transparency. It’s also not clear who
will share the loss. Regardless, both the product packager and
distributor have seen their reputation suffer."<END QUOTE>

Many of those investors who will lose money are other banks, and so
the "Credit-Credit Equals Gold #1" bankruptcy is thought to be the
reason for the PBOC's order blocking cash transfers. Many banks had
been counting on the money from the investment product, and some may
be facing bankruptcies themselves, as a chain reaction looms. China's
government will undoubtedly do everything possible to prevent such an
outcome, but with China's credit bubble collapsing, it's possible that
the chain reaction can't be stopped. Forbes and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hungary, Gabor Vona, Jobbik,
John P. Hussman, China, People's Bank of China,
PBOC, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.,
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,
Credit-Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product

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*** 28-Jan-14 World View -- Army strongman al-Sisi may be Egypt's next president

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Army strongman al-Sisi may be Egypt's next president
• Al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri says: Don't fight the Christians in Egypt
• Israel's PM Netanyahu slammed because son Yair is dating a gentile

****
**** Army strongman al-Sisi may be Egypt's next president
****


Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi (AP)

Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) on Monday gave its
permission for army leader Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi to become a
civilian and run for president. This followed an announcement
promoting al-Sisi from General to Field Marshal. According to
reports, al-Sisi will announce within the next couple of days to
resign from the army and enter the upcoming presidential elections as
a civilian candidate.

Al-Sisi led the coup that ousted former president Hosni Mubarak
and his Muslim Brotherhood government, and he's become extremely
popular for his tough stand against terrorism, which many
people blame on the Brotherhood. However, he's also an
extremely divisive figure, since MB supporters consider him
a criminal.

Al-Sisi is expected to win the presidential election. What's ironic
is that three years after the Egyptian Revolution that ousted one
military strongman, Hosni Mubarak, it appears that Egypt will soon be
ruled by another. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and BBC

****
**** Al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri says: Don't fight the Christians in Egypt
****

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has surprised observers by appearing
to be defending Christians in Egypt. Instead of fighting Christians,
Egyptian jihadists should focus their fire on Field Marshal Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi. According to al-Zawahiri,

<QUOTE>"We must not seek war with the Christians and thus
give the West an excuse to blame Muslims, as has happened
before. ...

[Al-Sisi] is a mercenary, an Americanized puppet, an impostor,
treacherous and sinful with a history of
bootlicking."<END QUOTE>

AP

****
**** Israel's PM Netanyahu slammed because son Yair is dating a gentile
****


Yair Netanyahu and Sandra Leikanger

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being criticized
because is son Yair, 23, is dating a non-Jewish Norwegian
girl, Sandra Leikanger, 25.

One prominent Jewish education leader in Israel called on
Netanyahu to "prevent the relationship":

<QUOTE>"[T]he consequences of your son's actions, despite his
being private individual, are far-reaching, both in terms of your
family personally and in more national terms as well.

On the personal level, his children - your grandchildren, as you
certainly know, will not be Jews; their name may be Netanyahu, but
Netanyahu the non-Jew. On the national level, this is the son of
the prime minister of Israel, the state of the Jewish nation, who
will join the six million (lost Jews in the Holocaust) as Israeli
Prime Minister Golda Meir declared."<END QUOTE>

Many Jews consider assimilation of other cultures into the Jewish
culture to be an abomination. According to one commentator:

[i]<QUOTE>"I know friends of mine who invest tens of millions
and more, hundreds of millions to fight assimilation in the world.
If G-d forbid it's true, woe to us. ... I hope it's not true.
f this thing is true, there's a huge heart-break for him and
[his wife] Sarah from this."<END QUOTE>

This debate comes in the context of a different kind of assimilation
issue. On Friday, Netanyahu raised a firestorm by saying that up to
500,000 settlers might remain in the West Bank in a new state of
Palestine, if a two-state solution were adopted, and that they would
be under the jurisdiction of the government of Palestine. Chief
Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat shot back:

<QUOTE>"No settler will be allowed to stay in the Palestinian
state, not even a single one, because settlements are illegal and
the presence of the settlers on the occupied lands is
illegal."<END QUOTE>

This brought charges of hypocrisy from Israeli leaders, who pointed to
the many Palestinians living in Israel. However, Netanyahu also
received criticism from some Israeli leaders, with Israel's
pro-settler economy minister calling Netanyahu's suggestion "ethnic
insanity." Jerusalem Post and Israel National News and The National (UAE)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, SCAF,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahri,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Yair Netanyahu, Sandra Leikanger,
Saed Erekat

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*** 29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine anti-government protests spread into the east
• U.N. Security Council approves EU troops for Central African Republican
• Syria's 'peace conference' proceeds as total farce
• China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal

****
**** Ukraine anti-government protests spread into the east
****


Protesters sit behind a barricade in Kiev on Tuesday (CNN)

Up until now, the anti-government protests have been in the west,
which is populated by Ukrainian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians demanding
the resignation of president Viktor Yanukovych, who is from the east,
which is comprised mostly of Russian-speaking ethnic Russians.
However, now the protests are spreading into a few Russian-speaking
cities in the east, indicating that Yanukovych may be losing control
of the situation. In an attempt to head off further erosion of his
credibility, he's accepted the resignation of the prime minister
Mykola Azarov, and all the ministers in his cabinet, something that
would have been unthinkable just two weeks ago. These resignations
came shortly after the parliament voted to repeal the "anti-protest"
law that had triggered a surge in violence two weeks ago.

Despite the spread to a few cities in the east, the protests do not
appear to be spiraling into a larger conflict between Ukrainians and
Russians. Right now the protests are almost purely political, and are
being spurred by a few activists. It doesn't appear that that's going
to change soon. BBC and Telegraph (London)

****
**** U.N. Security Council approves EU troops for Central African Republican
****

Fearing that the the violence between Muslims and Christians in the
Central African Republic might spiral out of control into a full-scale
genocidal civil war, like the one between the Hutus and the Tutsis in
Rwanda in 1994, the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday
unanimously voted to permit the European Union to supply 500
peacekeeping troops to the CAR, to join 1,600 French troops and 5,000
African Union troops already there.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is deep into a
generation Crisis era, and the chances of a genocidal explosion are
all but certain. ( "20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge"
) CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931
Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French
colonialists. In any event, the addition of another 500 peacekeeping
troops to the thousands already there is unlikely to prevent what is
coming anyway. United Nations and Reuters

****
**** Syria's 'peace conference' proceeds as total farce
****

The "Geneva-II" meetings are progressing in Switzerland this week,
with the representatives of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad facing off against the representatives of the opposition
rebels. The mainstream media is oohing and ahhing about how these
meetings are a big step forward. The meetings are moderated by
Lakhdar Brahimi, the Special Envoy appointed by the UN and the Arab
League.

Here's how these meetings go: In the mornings, both sides are in the
same room with Brahimi. The two sides are in the same room, but they
don't talk to each other. Each of them talks only to Brahimi. The
purpose of the morning sessions is to discuss the agenda for the
afternoon sessions. In the afternoon sessions, the two sides are in
different rooms, and Brahimi goes back and forth between the rooms,
like Henry Kissinger's "shuttle diplomacy."

As we said the other day, al-Assad has no reason to compromise on
anything. He's used sarin gas on his own people, he uses "industrial
strength" torture on people, and every day he uses barrel bombs on his
own people, which are designed to kill, maim and torture as many
people as possible, especially women and children. Russia supplies an
unlimited number of heavy weapons for Assad to use to continue his
psychopathic murder. Al-Assad will probably win the war after he's
killed off a few million more of his people, so why should he bother
to compromise?

As an example of what a waste of time these Geneva meetings are, you
need only look at what the mainstream media are calling
"breakthroughs." The breakthrough that they always refer to is that
both sides are in the same room, though they rarely mention that the
two sides never actually talk to each other.

But the really, really big breakthrough was an agreement to allow some
2,500 women and children to leave the city of Homs, where they are
trapped by all the bombing. I was surprised that Assad agreed to this
because I assume that he gets sexual pleasure out of bombing women and
children. But on Sunday he agreed to it.

But then on Tuesday, the al-Assad regime announced that all the
militias (meaning all the men) would have to leave the city first, and
then he would allow the women and children to leave. So, as usual,
the al-Assad regime was just lying when they agreed to let the women
and children leave. As usual, al-Assad and the Russians made complete
fools of the mainstream media and the Western politicians.

These meetings are supposed to end on Friday, but Tuesday afternoon's
session was called off because the two sides are completely
deadlocked. Let's watch and see if there are any further
"breakthroughs" before Friday. BBC

****
**** China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal
****


Malaysia's James Shoal and China (Google Maps)

China has sent three armed ships to patrol the region around James
Shoal in waters belonging to Malaysia that China has indicated in the
past that it plans to seize. The shoal is named Zengmu Reef by the
Chinese. According to Xinhua:

<QUOTE>"During the ceremony held in the Zengmu Reef area,
soldiers and officers aboard swore an oath of determination to
safeguard the country's sovereignty and maritime interests.

[The fleet commander] urged soldiers and officers to always be
prepared to fight, improve combat capabilities and lead the forces
to help build the country into a maritime power."<END QUOTE>

If looking at the above map makes you think that James Shoal is
awfully far away from China to be claiming it, then you would be
right.

China is claiming vast areas of the South China Sea, including regions
that that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
Indonesia and the Philippines, and has threatened to use its vast
military power to threaten and subdue any neighboring nation that
disobeys its orders. This comes just a few days after China escalated
tensions by demanding that any foreign fishing vessel ask permission
from China's military before fishing in the South China Sea. ( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines"
)

China's media have reported a strategy of seizing one island after
another, in each case without expecting any actual military
confrontation because of its vast military power. China would be
counting on the fact that this one-by-one approach would allow gradual
seizure of the entire region without triggering a military response
from the United States. As weeks go by, it seems that China is
becoming more and more bellicose and militaristic. Generational
Dynamics predicts that China is rapidly and aggressively preparing for
preemptive war against the United States, and is rapidly developing a
variety of missile systems with no other purpose than to strike
American cities, aircraft carriers, and military installations.
Malaysia Chronicle and Reuters



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, Mykola Azarov,
Security Council, Central African Republic, France,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Lakhdar Brahimi,
China, South China Sea, Malaysia, James Shoal, Zengmu Reef

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*** 30-Jan-14 World View -- Syria a 'huge magnet' for terrorists - and perhaps biological weapons

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese now drink more red wine than the French
• Syria replaces Pakistan as the center of al-Qaeda jihadist activity
• Syria may be developing biological weapons

****
**** Chinese now drink more red wine than the French
****


Ad for Dynasty Red Wine, a joint venture of China and France

China has overtaken France and Italy to become the world's number one
consumer of red wine, consuming 155 million nine-litre cases, compared
to 150 million for France, 141 million for Italy, 134 million for
America, and 112 million for Germany. According to one analyst, there
are Chinese superstitions over colors:

<QUOTE>"Red is the color of luck and good fortune and white
is the color of death [in China]. So you don't want to drink
white, why would you?"<END QUOTE>

However, the U.S. is still the world leader in consumption of all
forms of wine together. France 24

****
**** Syria replaces Pakistan as the center of al-Qaeda jihadist activity
****

US intelligence chief James Clapper said in Wednesday that Syria is
replacing Pakistan as primary breeding ground for al-Qaeda linked
terrorists. According to Clapper, "Syria has become a huge magnet for
extremists," who can now recruit, train and equip a growing number of
militants there:

<QUOTE>"What’s going on there and the attraction of these
foreign fighters is very, very worrisome.

We estimate at this point in excess of 7,000 foreign fighters have
been attracted from some 50 countries, many of them in Europe and
the Mideast. We’re seeing now the appearance of training
complexes in Syria to train people to go back to their countries
and of course conduct more terrorist acts."<END QUOTE>

This will not be a surprise to any Reader. As I've been saying for
months, Russia and Iran are at fault here, for supplying weapons to a
genocidal monster, Bashar al-Assad, allowing him "industrial level"
torture and murder against his Sunni opponents, drawing Sunni
jihadists from all over the world. Vladimir Putin is a war criminal
for supplying weapons to al-Assad who is committing crimes against
humanity. Time and US News

****
**** Syria may be developing biological weapons
****

Several months ago, Syria agreed to give up production of chemical
weapons, such as the sarin that he used to slaughter his own
people. But apparently the al-Assad and the Russians
snookered the West again, because they forgot to ask about
biological weapons. According to Clapper's written report:

<QUOTE>"We judge that some elements of Syria’s biological
warfare (BW) program might have advanced beyond the research and
development stage and might be capable of limited agent
production, based on the duration of its longstanding program. To
the best of our knowledge, Syria has not successfully weaponized
biological agents in an effective delivery system, but it
possesses conventional weapon systems that could be modified for
biological-agent delivery."<END QUOTE>

AFP and Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, France,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Pakistan, James Clapper,
Russia, Iran, Vladimir Putin

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*** 31-Jan-14 World View -- Diplomatic silence in North Korea raises military alarms

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad (and Vladimir Putin) guilty of more war crimes
• U.S. accuses Syria of not complying with chemical weapons agreement
• Diplomatic silence in North Korea raises military alarms

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad (and Vladimir Putin) guilty of more war crimes
****


Before (left) and after pictures show that the al-Assad regime destroyed entire civilian neighborhoods, killing many women and children in just a few days (CNN/HRW)

It seems that almost every day, new evidence comes forth of war crimes
and crimes against humanity by the genocidal monster president of
Syria, Bashar al-Assad. A new report by Human Rights Watch shows that
the Syrian government "deliberately and unlawfully" destroyed entire
civilian neighborhoods. Just counting the suburbs of Damascus and
Hama, thousands of homes were flattened.

Once again, this is a war crime on the part of Bashar al-Assad. And,
once again, Russia's president Vladimir Putin is guilty of war crimes
as well, for supplying the weapons to al-Assad. Human Rights Watch and CNN

****
**** U.S. accuses Syria of not complying with chemical weapons agreement
****

For the first time, U.S. administration officials are accusing Syria's
Bashar al-Assad regime of not complying with its agreement to allow
its chemical weapons and manufacturing facilities to be destroyed,
with only 4% of the "low hanging fruit" so far delivered for
destruction. At first, there were excuses that the weather was too
cold, and so forth, but as the weeks have gone by, it's become
increasingly clear that al-Assad is stalling.

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said "The United States is concerned
that the Syrian government is behind in delivering these chemical
weapons precursor materials on time."

Apparently Hagel wasn't listening on Tuesday when President Obama gave
the State of the Union address:

<QUOTE>"You see, in a world of complex threats, our security
and leadership depends on all elements of our power – including
strong and principled diplomacy. American diplomacy has rallied
more than fifty countries to prevent nuclear materials from
falling into the wrong hands, and allowed us to reduce our own
reliance on Cold War stockpiles. American diplomacy, backed by
the threat of force, is why Syria’s chemical weapons are being
eliminated, and we will continue to work with the international
community to usher in the future the Syrian people deserve – a
future free of dictatorship, terror and fear. As we speak,
American diplomacy is supporting Israelis and Palestinians as they
engage in difficult but necessary talks to end the conflict there;
to achieve dignity and an independent state for Palestinians, and
lasting peace and security for the State of Israel – a Jewish
state that knows America will always be at their
side."<END QUOTE>

Actually, it's been one debacle after another, especially President
Obama's "red line" flip-flop. American diplomacy has made America a
laughingstock, especially in the Mideast. The Israeli-Palestinian
"peace process" is a joke. Syria has become the worldwide center for
al-Qaeda linked jihadism, Bashar al-Assad is committing "industrial
strength" torture and extermination on his own civilians, is now
suspected of developing biological weapons, and has already used sarin
gas on his own people, which he'll be free to do again since he
apparently is reneging on his agreement to have his chemical weapons
destroyed. ( "30-Jan-14 World View -- Syria a 'huge magnet' for terrorists - and perhaps biological weapons"
)

A lot of people have written to me over the years saying that they
don't like me saying that America is policemen of the world. What
they usually say is, "Who the hell appointed America to be policeman
of the world?" Well, the answer to that question is President Harry
Truman, who enunciated in 1947 the Truman Doctrine, saying that
intervening in international conflicts may cost money and treasure,
but it's only a tiny fraction of the money and treasure spent in World
War II. Like it or not, America has been policeman of the world since
the end of World War II.

Well, what happens to a city when the policemen stop enforcing the
laws? The criminals and thugs take over, as has happened in President
Obama's home town, Chicago. And what happens to the world when the
policeman of the world starts "leading from behind?" You're seeing it
in Syria. President Truman said that the cost of military
intervention was tiny compared to the cost of fighting a world war,
and that lesson is being brought home today. McClatchy and CBS News

****
**** Diplomatic silence in North Korea raises military alarms
****

Commentary from KGS Nightwatch indicates that Kim Jong-un's government
is in chaos since the execution of his uncle, Jang Song-thaek:

North Korean policy is disjointed. That condition suggests the charm
or reconciliation offensive is not real and might be part of a
deception plan.

Supporting that judgment is the absence of diplomatic activity. North
Korean media have reported the arrival or departure of no foreign
delegations since 14 January. The last was by a member of the Japanese
House of Councilors. Prior to that, the last foreign delegation was
that led by Dennis Rodman. North Korea has sent no delegations abroad
apparently since the death of Jang Song-thaek.

In times of political normality, foreign delegations arrive at or
depart from Pyongyang several times a week. The absence of diplomatic
activity reinforces the observation that North Korea has turned
inward. It is not engaging in significant foreign initiatives and not
responding to its own initiatives on North-South relations.

The absence of normal diplomatic activity is a general warning
indicator. That means that conditions in the North are not normal but
the reason is not yet clear.

The last comment is significant because North Korean media almost
daily repeat the propaganda theme that North and South Koreans can and
must solve the challenge of reunification. Nevertheless, the North has
failed to respond to South Korea proposals and ignored its own
proposals.

The disconnect between North Korea's words and actions justify a high
alert condition by South Korean and Allied military forces. It also
suggests that the overtures to the South are gestures without
substance. They might provide cover for the continuing purges and
campaigns to guard against counter-revolution. They also might cover
North Korean preparations for a military provocation.

China Relations. A South Korean news outlet reported that on 10
January Kim Jong-un approved a security plan aimed at eliminating the
"China pigs." The "China pigs" are all those people who worked with
Jang Song-thaek to attract Chinese investment in North Korea.

If confirmed, as seems likely, this North Korean internal security
program means that Chinese relations with North Korea are severely
strained again. China has no credibility to act as an honest broker
for restarting the Six Party Talks. KGS Nightwatch


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Human Rights Watch, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Chuck Hagel, Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine,
North Korea, Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong-un, China

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*** 1-Feb-14 World View -- Syria 'peace talks' end in recriminations and accusations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria 'peace talks' end in recriminations and accusations
• Eurozone continues spiral into deflation, with 12% unemployment
• Three bankers commit suicide in one week

****
**** Syria 'peace talks' end in recriminations and accusations
****


Supporters of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad demonstrate in Geneva on Friday (Reuters)

The so-called "Geneva II" Syria peace conference in the Swiss town of
Montreux ended on Friday with no agreement on peace, no agreement on
humanitarian aid, and no commitment to another meeting. According to
UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, who was conference leader:

<QUOTE>"Progress is very slow indeed, but the sides have
engaged in an acceptable manner. This is a modest beginning on
which we can build.

The gaps between the sides remain wide; there is no use pretending
otherwise. Nevertheless, during our discussions, I observed a
little bit of common ground – perhaps more than the two sides
realize or recognize.

Things have gone so far down that they are not going to get out of
the ditch overnight."<END QUOTE>

The Friends of Syria, a Western alliance that backs al-Assad's foes,
said, ""The regime is responsible for the lack of real progress in the
first round of negotiations. It must not further obstruct substantial
negotiations and it must engage constructively in the second round of
negotiations." The U.S. State Department said that the Syrian
government "continues to play games."

Syria's deputy prime minister, Walid al-Moallem, gave two reasons for
the failure of the conference:

<QUOTE>"[One reason was] the non-seriousness and non-ripeness
of the other side and its threat of blowing up the meetings many
times and stubbornness on one issue as if we come here for one
hour to hand them over everything and return and this indicates
the illusions they live.

The second reason was the US flagrant interference in the talks
and the tense atmosphere through which the US wanted to cover
Geneva meeting by its actual appearance and its flagrant
intervention in the meeting affairs were also reasons that made
the talks don’t lead to tangible outcomes."<END QUOTE>

Brahimi says that a new meeting is scheduled to begin on February
10, but the Syrian delegation denies that it's agreed to attend.

Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) says
that its intelligence sources are telling quite a different story.
Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, claims that the meeting in
Montreux was just for show for the media, and that the real
negotiations are going on at a meeting in Bern, with representatives
from the U.S., Russia, Syria, and Syrian opposition representatives.
The Mideast Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the UAE,
were not invited. I found no confirmation of this story anywhere, so
make of it what you will, Dear Reader. Daily Star (Lebanon)/AFP and Syria Online (Damascus) and Debka

****
**** Eurozone continues spiral into deflation, with 12% unemployment
****

As we wrote several weeks ago ( "9-Jan-14 World View -- Eurozone plummets into deflation"
), the eurozone inflation rate has been falling
steadily for over a year, raising very real concerns that the eurozone
is headed into deflation. The statistics for January are out, and the
eurozone CPI was just 0.7%, substantially lower than the 0.9%
predicted by expert economists. This raises more alarm bells over
deflation, which is often the precursor to a major economic
depression. As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts
that we're headed for a deflationary spiral and a major global
economic crisis, the worst of which is far from over. CNBC

****
**** Three bankers commit suicide in one week
****

It's hard to know what to make of this, but three bankers
have committed suicide in the last week:

• Gabriel Magee, 39-year-old VP of JP Morgan's technology
  department, jumped to his death from the roof ot the bank's European
  headquarters in London.
  
• William Broeksmit, a 58-year-old former senior executive at
  Deutsche Bank AG, was found dead in his home, also in London, after an
  apparent suicide.
  
• Mike Dueker, the 50-year-old chief economist at Russell
  Investments in Washington state, jumped over a fence and fell down a
  50-foot embankment, in an apparent suicide.

It's well known that suicides occur most often around the Christmas
holiday season, so it's possible that the timing of these three
suicides was coincidental. But it's also true that a number of
bankers and investors jumped to their deaths during the Great
Depression, usually from hotel rooms, and that the overall suicide
rate today has surged even higher than during the Great Depression
(usually because of unemployment). A financial crisis sends many
people to financial ruin, but more than that, a financial crisis
exposes a lot of crime, particularly embezzlement.

John Kenneth Galbraith described what happened during the Great
Depression in his 1954 book, The Great Crash - 1929, as
follows:

<QUOTE>"In many ways the effect of the crash on embezzlement
was more significant than on suicide. To the economist
embezzlement is the most interesting of crimes. Alone among the
various forms of larceny it has a time parameter. Weeks, months,
or years may elapse between the commission of the crime and its
discovery. (This is a period, incidentally, when the embezzler has
his gain and the man who has been embezzled, oddly enough, feels
no loss. There is a net increase in psychic wealth.) At any given
time there exists an inventory of undiscovered embezzlement in --
or more precisely not in -- the country's businesses and
banks. This inventory -- it should perhaps be called the bezzle --
amounts at any moment to many millions of dollars. It also varies
in size with the business cycle. In good times people are
relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though money
is plentiful, there are always many people who need more. Under
these circumstances the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of
discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly. In
depression all is reversed. Money is watched with a narrow,
suspicious eye. The man who handles it is assumed to be dishonest
until he proves himself otherwise. Audits are penetrating and
meticulous. Commercial morality is enormously improved. The
bezzle shrinks.

The stock market boom and the ensuing crash caused a traumatic
exaggeration of these normal relationships. To the normal needs
for money, for home, family and dissipation, was added, during the
boom, the new and overwhelming requirement for funds to play the
market or to meet margin calls. Money was exceptionally
plentiful. People were also exceptionally trusting. A bank
president who was himself trusting Kreuger, Hopson, and Insull was
obviously unlikely to suspect his lifelong friend the cashier. In
the late twenties the bezzle grew apace.

Just as the boom accelerated the rate of growth, so the crash
enormously advanced the rate of discovery. Within a few days,
something close to universal trust turned into something akin to
universal suspicion. Audits were ordered. Strained or
preoccupied behavior was noticed. Most important, the collapse
in stock values made irredeemable the position of the employee who
had embezzled to play the market. He now confessed.

After the first week or so of the crash, reports of defaulting
employees were a daily occurrence. They were far more common
than the suicides. On some days comparatively brief accounts
occupied a column or more in the Times. The amounts were
large and small, and they were reported from far and wide. ...

Each week during the autumn more such unfortunates were reveled
in their misery. Most of them were small men who had taken a
flier in the market and then become more deeply involved. Later
they had more impressive companions. It was the crash, and the
subsequent ruthless contraction of values which, in the end,
exposed the speculation by Kreuger, Hopson, and Insull with the
money of other people. Should the American economy ever achieve
permanent full employment and prosperity, firms should look well
to their auditors. One of the uses of depression is the exposure
of what auditors fail to find. Bagehot once observed: "Every great
crisis reveals the excessive speculations of many houses which no
one before suspected." [pp. 132-35]<END QUOTE>

We have to remember that today there's a tremendous undercurrent of
what we might call "unreported crime" going on. Thousands of bankers
purposely created and sold trillions of dollars in fraudulent
synthetic securities backed by faulty subprime mortgages, and not a
single person has gone to jail for these crimes. If there's an
increase in suicide rates among bankers, then it's possible that some
kind of Karmic retribution is taking place. We'll have to wait and
see what's going on. Bloomberg and Business Insider and Global Research (May 2013)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Lakhdar Brahimi,
Friends of Syria, Walid al-Moallem,
eurozone, deflation,
Gabriel Magee, William Broeksmit, Mike Dueker,
John Kenneth Galbraith

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*** 2-Feb-14 World View -- Torture of Ukraine dissident polarizes U.S.-Russia relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukrainian activist back from the dead, beaten but alive
• Torture of Ukraine dissident polarizes U.S.-Russia relations
• Ukraine protests lead to further crackdown on free speech in Russia

****
**** Ukrainian activist back from the dead, beaten but alive
****


Dmytro Bulatov

The anti-government protests in Kiev, the capital city of Ukraine,
have been simmering since late November, growing into violence within
the last two weeks. But now it's turned into a major proxy political
shouting match between Russia and the West, because Dmytro Bulatov, a
35 year old opposition activist, who had been presumed killed two
weeks ago, was found alive in a Kiev suburb, where he had been dumped,
severely scarred and missing part of one ear. He said that he had
been kidnapped, and then tortured and beaten for a week by men with
Russian accents. Ukraine's pro-Russian government is denying any
complicity in the kidnapping and torture, but it's widely assumed that
the men with the Russian accents were government thugs.

The anti-government protests began on November 21 after the president,
Viktor Yanukovych, did a major flip-flop and refused to sign a trade
deal with the European Union, after saying for months that would sign.
The move was seen as turning away from Europe, and turning toward
Russia, which displeased the ethnic Ukrainians in the east, but
pleased the ethnic Russians in the west. This view was reinforced
when Russia's president Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine a $15 billion
loan, thought to be incentive to encourage Yanukovych to join Putin's
Eurasian Customs Union.

The protests had been dying down until January 16, when the parliament
passed a harsh new law restricting protests and freedom of speech.
The protests became larger and more violent, and remain so until this
day. even though Yanukovych has made several concessions since then:
His prime minister and cabinet have all resigned, and the anti-protest
law has been repealed. However, the protesters see these concessions
as a sign of weakness, and are demanding the resignation of
Yanukovych. Yanukovych has been out of sight for a week with "the
flu," but aides say he's refusing to resign.

The reappearance of activist leader Bulatov, apparently back from the
dead but badly beaten, once again escalated the protests.

There had been some initial reports that Bulatov, who is recuperating
in the hospital, was going to be arrested on charges related to his
anti-government activism, but government officials say that they are
only detaining him in order to protect him. Kyiv Post and Interfac-Ukraine

****
**** Torture of Ukraine dissident polarizes U.S.-Russia relations
****

The news of the torture of Dmytro Bulatov was a bombshell that hit in
the middle of a long-scheduled security conference being held in
Munich. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with opposition
leaders and said on Saturday in Munich that the U.S. and the European
Union supported the people of Ukraine as they sought a stronger
democracy, and should not be coerced into associating with one country
(Russia). According to Kerry:

<QUOTE>"[The people of Ukraine are] fighting for the right to
associate with partners who will help them realize their
aspirations. They have decided that means their futures do not
have to lie with one country alone, and certainly not coerced. The
United States and EU stand with the people of Ukraine in that
fight."<END QUOTE>

Kerry has apparently sided with the opposition, and is receiving
criticism because he seems to be saying that it's democracy
to overthrow a democratically elected government through street
demonstrations.

According to Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, also
speaking in Munich on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"What does the inciting of street protests, which are
growing increasingly violent, have to do with promoting democratic
principles?

Why do we not hear statements of condemnation toward those who
seize government buildings, attack and burn police officers, and
voice racist and anti-Semitic slogans? Why do senior European
politicians de facto encourage such actions, while at home they
swiftly and harshly act to stop any impingement on the letter of
the law?"<END QUOTE>

It's funny to see Lavrov, a man with no morals whatsoever, claim
outrage and try to take a moral stand. He might have been reminded
that Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, and annexed two Georgian
provinces.

The Ukraine situation has grown from a local matter involving
anti-government demonstrators into a major international disagreement
between Russia and the West. Al-Jazeera and Russia Today

****
**** Ukraine protests lead to further crackdown on free speech in Russia
****

Russian state TV is claiming that Russia's liberal news outlets "are
the leaders of a fifth column that is preparing a Kyiv-style ‘Maidan’
revolution in Moscow," financed by Russian enemies in the West. The
most immediate target is a Moscow-based independent TV cable news
channel Dozhd (meaning "Rain"). On January 26, Dozhd ran a panel and
asked viewers to vote if Leningrad (today St. Petersburg), besieged
during World War II by Nazi troops, should have surrendered to save
civilian lives (the siege or blockade of Leningrad lasted from 1941 to
1944 and more than a million civilians died, mainly from starvation).
The St. Petersburg prosecutor’s office announced it has begun an
official investigation of Dozhd: "To determine if the channel has
crossed the line of permissibility during the celebration of the 70th
anniversary of the end of the blockade of Leningrad." Many cable
services are dropping Dozhd from their lineups, and Pravda has called
the Dozhd channel a liberal outpost run by Jews, homosexuals and
"insects." The Ukraine protests are generating an almost hysterical
reaction in Moscow, and splitting the power base of president Vladimir
Putin, as Putin himself is taking a cautious approach, while
nationalists and revisionists desperately call for a more aggressive,
interventionist policy in Ukraine. Undoubtedly, the question of
Russian military intervention in Ukraine is at least being considered
in Moscow. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych,
Dmytro Bulatov, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Sergei Lavrov, John Kerry,
Dozhd, Leningrad, St. Petersburg

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*** 3-Feb-14 World View -- Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party will adopt new name if banned

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party will adopt new name if banned
• Syria's al-Assad has week of victories, including rebel infighting

****
**** Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party will adopt new name if banned
****


Golden Dawn rally on Saturday (Kathimerini)

Faced with threats from Greece's authorities to ban the neo-Nazi
Golden Dawn political party from participating in the May 25
elections, spokesman Ilias Kassidiaris announced the founding of a new
party, National Dawn, as a backup in case Golden Dawn is banned.
Kassidiaris was speaking at a rally of about 3,000 Golden Dawn
supporters on Saturday, and said,

<QUOTE>"Patriots will have a party to vote for in the next
election if (authorities) go ahead with the coup to ban Golden
Dawn."<END QUOTE>

Golden Dawn was declared a "criminal organization" last year, after
September 18 when self-identified Golden Dawn members murdered a white
Greek civilian rapper, Pavlos Fyssas, or Killah P, who rapped against
the kind of racism that Golden Dawn practices.

Greek police arrested the party's leader, Nikolaos Michaloliakos, and
dozens of party members, including four MPs. The charges include
homicide, attempted homicide, money laundering, blackmail, grievous
bodily harm, and other serious crimes.

Golden Dawn was a little-known fringe party until the financial
crisis, when it exploded in popularity. It is highly nationalistic,
has a Swastika-like emblem on its flag, and supports deportation of
all non-Greeks, even those who are citizens, to rid Greece of the
"stench" of immigrants. It has conducted hate campaigns against
immigrants, and is believed to have targeted immigrants with violence.

Two opinion polls published last week showed the party would get 8.9%
to 10.3% of the vote if elections were held now. Kathimerini (Athens) and Reuters

****
**** Syria's al-Assad has week of victories, including rebel infighting
****

Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad had good reason to
celebrate this weekend, as one victory led to another last week.

Two anti-Assad rebel groups are now fighting fiercely with one
another. The al-Qaeda linked Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) killed a commander in a Syrian salafist rebel group, Jabhat
al-Nusra (the Islamic Front), leading to continued gunfights and
bombings between the two groups. ISIL has attracted foreign jihadists
from all over the world, and it currently has control of parts of Iraq
and Syria, and is trying to take full control of a larger region.
ISIL has essentially become an ally of al-Assad for two reasons: ISIL
is killing al-Assad's Syrian rebels, and ISIL allows al-Assad to
maintain the fiction that he's fighting al-Qaeda terrorists, when in
fact he's committing crimes against humanity and war crimes against
Syrian civilians. In fact, al-Assad's bombers are reported to be very
carefully avoiding ISIL camps, so al-Assad isn't fighting al-Qaeda
terrorists at all.

Other good news for al-Assad this week:

• The "Geneva II peace conference" was held, giving legitimacy
  and stature to al-Assad, without even requiring to permit humanitarian
  aid.
  
• Al-Assad's planes are pouring barrel bombs out on civilian
  neighborhoods. A "barrel bomb" is a barrel containing hundreds of
  pounds of explosives, designed to cause massive damage on impact, and
  to kill as many people as possible. Al-Assad is killing thousands of
  civilians every week, with complete impunity."
  
• Al-Assad has reneged on his agreement to have his chemical weapons
  destroyed. He's used sarin gas on his own people before, and he'll
  probably do it again.

Al-Assad is winning on the battlefield, and has no reason to
compromise with anyone on anything. Indian Express and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Golden Dawn,
Ilias Kassidiaris, National Dawn, Nikolaos Michaloliakos,
Pavlos Fyssas, Killah P,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic Front,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL

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*** 4-Feb-14 World View -- Monday's market plunge continues 'that 1929 feeling'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Qaeda's Zawahiri picks sides among Syria's jihadist terrorists
• Monday's market plunge continues 'that 1929 feeling'
• Bitterness between U.S. and Israel increases as 'peace process' collapses

****
**** Al-Qaeda's Zawahiri picks sides among Syria's jihadist terrorists
****


ISIS fighter parade in Syrian town on January 2 (Reuters)

Al-Qaeda's top leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is repudiating any
connection with the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant
(ISIS or ISIL). A statement by al-Qaeda General Command was published
on a jihadist web site on Sunday:

<QUOTE>"[Al-Qaeda] has no connection with the group called
the ISIS, as it was not informed or consulted about its
establishment. It was not pleased with it and thus ordered its
suspension. Therefore, it is not affiliated with al-Qaeda and has
no organizational relationship with it. Al-Qaeda is not
responsible for ISIS's actions."<END QUOTE>

There are three groups of anti-Assad militants in Syria: The
"moderate" Syrian National Coalition (SNC); the Islamic Front, or
Jabhat al-Nusra, consisting of Syrian citizens who are salafists; and
the jihadists in ISIS, an extension of the old Al-Qaeda in Iraq,
consisting of many foreign fighters.

ISIS has essentially become an ally of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, in that both of these groups are cooperating with each other
to fight the other rebel groups (SNC and al-Nusra). Al-Assad's army
has been focusing its bombing campaigns on rebel areas, but has not
been striking any ISIS camps or supporters. This has apparently
distressed al-Zawahiri, who would like to see the rebels to focus on
fighting the Shia/Alawite al-Assad, rather than each other.

However, al-Zawahiri's statement is unlikely to make much difference
in Syria. ISIS is attracting jihadists from all over the world, and
it's becoming increasingly powerful. The fight between ISIS and
al-Nusra is likely to get a lot more bloody. BBC and
AFP and The National (UAE)

****
**** Monday's market plunge continues 'that 1929 feeling'
****

The Dow Industrials index fell more than 2% on Monday, continuing a
decline that has been almost steady since the beginning of 2014. The
experts blamed Monday's plunge on bad manufacturing data, and other an
apparently slowdown in China.

The S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) fell to 16.9%.
This is lower than 18.72 peak of last year, but it's still
astronomically high by historical standards. It was only as recently
as 1982 that the P/E index was 6, and it's about due to return to that
level, as it does periodically, every 30 years or so. This would push
the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its current 15,400 down to the
3,000-4,000 level, or lower, which is what Generational Dynamics is
predicting.

A week ago, I wrote "'that 1929 feeling' may be back on Wall Street"
. As I said, what I'm
looking for a certain pattern that preceded the 1929 crash.

For the seven weeks preceding the 1929 crash, starting from 9/3/29,
the market declined gradually, but with some wild gyrations along the
way. That's the pattern I'm watching for today. The market has, in
fact, been declining gradually since Jan 1, but we've only begun to
see the wild gyrations. If the decline continues, and if there's a
fall of 6% one day, followed by a rise of 8% the next day, or some
sort of wild gyration like that, then that would be the pattern I'm
looking for.

However, there are no guarantees, one way or the other. The market
might fall 10%, and then go back up. The stock market is in a huge
bubble, and Generational Dynamics predicts a major financial panic and
crisis, but the exact date that the bubble will burst is impossible to
predict. But as I said, this is the first time in a long time that
I've thought that the market has that "1929 feeling." Reuters

****
**** Bitterness between U.S. and Israel increases as 'peace process' collapses
****

As the April 29 deadline for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement
approaches, with not even the whisper of any sort of agreement in
sight, the bitterness and mutual finger-pointing between Israel's
Benjamin Netanyahu administration versus America's Obama
administration is increasing.

In an attempt to get Israel to make additional concessions, especially
to renounce any further West Bank settlement construction,
Secretary of State John Kerry said at the weekend international
security conference in Munich:

<QUOTE>"You see for Israel there is an increasing
deligitimization campaign that has been building up. People are
very sensitive to it. There are talk of boycotts and other kinds
of things. Are we all going to better with all of
that?"<END QUOTE>

The Israeli cabinet took these remarks as a direct threat that
the U.S. not oppose an international boycott of Israel, and might
even support it.

<QUOTE>"Attempts to impose a boycott on the State of Israel
are immoral and unjust, [and] they will not achieve their
goal."<END QUOTE>

Kerry later issued a statement saying that the Obama administration
opposes any boycotts of Israel. The relationship between the
Netanyahu and Obama administrations has been testy from the start, but
as the deadline approaches, it's becoming more hostile. It was just
two weeks ago that an Israeli minister said that Kerry was "acting out
of misplaced obsession and messianic fervor. ( "15-Jan-14 World View -- Israeli remarks about Kerry grow into international incident"
.)

Kerry is now calling the April 29 deadline "artificial," indicating
that he wants the so-called "peace process" to continue into the
future. However, there may be a problem. The main reason that the
Palestinians haven't walked out is because Israel is releasing 104
prisoners, in four evenly spaced groups of 26, from Israeli jails. If
the "peace talks" are to continue, then Kerry will have to convince
Israel to release some more prisoners, or to make some other
concession. VOA and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
Syrian National Coalition, SNC, Jabhat al-Nusra,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
John Kerry, Israel

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*** 5-Feb-14 World View -- Pakistan 'peace process' collapses on first day

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan 'peace process' collapses on first day
• Corruption in Europe matches corruption in Washington

****
**** Pakistan 'peace process' collapses on first day
****


Taliban negotiators furious about being stood up on Tuesday (Reuters)

Tuesday was to be a "historic day" for Pakistan, for this was the day
that Pakistan's government would open peace talks with the Pakistani
Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) to end the endless bombings and other
terror attacks that the TTP perpetrates almost daily.

The talks were to begin on Tuesday. The TTP representatives showed up
for the meeting, but the government representatives did not. The
government issued a statement to the furious TTP representatives that
they had to check something out about the negotiating teams.

The question of negotiating teams has been part of the joke leading up
to Tuesday's scheduled meeting. The TTP negotiators could not make
any binding decisions on behalf of the TTP, so the talks were just for
show from their side. But even more laughable is the fact that the
TTP asked Imran Khan to be one of the negotiators on the side of the
TTP. Imran Khan is a former cricket superstar who has become a
vitriolically anti-American politician, whose participation as a TTP
negotiator would be totally inappropriate.

Even if the TTP leaders agreed to stop terrorist attacks, their
decision would not be binding on other TTP-related terrorist groups in
Pakistan. Probably the worst is Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ), which has
publicly and firmly announced as its goal the extermination of all
Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off bombs
in order to achieve that goal. As recently as January 21, blew up a
bus of Shia pilgrims returning from Iran, killing 24. LeJ is not
going give up these attacks, even if the TTP makes some deal.

The volume of terrorist attacks in Pakistan is enormous. In January
alone, terrorism resulted in at least 460 fatalities, according to the
South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). There have been at least 70
explosions in January, resulting in 167 deaths. To think that this
flood of terrorist attacks will suddenly stop because of some "peace
talks" with the Taliban is absurd. Many Pakistanis agree. One
editorialist calls the peace talks "appeasement" and says, "The
postponement of talks leads one to hope the prime minister has finally
realized that the TTP is in fact playing tricks with the government."
Pakistan Today and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and BBC

****
**** Corruption in Europe matches corruption in Washington
****

A new "EU Anti-Corruption Report" from the European Commission paints
a very bleak picture. According to the report, Europeans believe that
the only way to succeed is through political connections, and that
corruption is a big problem. A rising number believe that it's
getting worse, especially in Greece, Spain and Italy. According to
one commentator in Brussels:

<QUOTE>"Europe's problem is not so much with small bribes on
the whole. It's with the ties between the political class and
industry.

There has been a failure to regulate politicians' conflicts of
interest in dealing with business. The rewards for favoring
companies, in allocating contracts or making changes to
legislation, are positions in the private sector when they have
left office rather than a bribe."<END QUOTE>

This may be what's happening in Brussels, but it's also what's
happening in Washington. It's almost beyond belief that thousands of
(Gen-X) bankers committed massive fraud in the 2003-8 time period,
purposely creating trillions of dollar's worth of synthetic securities
backed by faulty subprime mortgages, and then sold them to investors
knowing that they were fraudulent. And NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON has gone
to jail for those crimes. The Obama administration adamantly refuses
to prosecute these criminals and criminal organizations, which,
incidentally, donated millions of dollars to Obama's campaigns. And
then you have the administration dispensing Obamacare favors,
exemptions and dispensations to labor unions and other administration
cronies, while using the IRS to target political enemies, and you have
the worst corruption in my lifetime, and you have exactly what this
new report says is happening in Europe. BBC and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Europe, corruption

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*** 6-Feb-14 World View -- Another gory lynching in Central African Republic, this time by soldiers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Another gory lynching in Central African Republic, this time by soldiers
• China struggles to import food from around the world
• U.S. challenges China on South China Sea claims

****
**** Another gory lynching in Central African Republic, this time by soldiers
****


A man drags the corpse of the man who was lynched by CAR soldiers on Wednesday (AFP)

Soldiers in the Central African Republic, the ones who are supposed to
bring peace to the CAR, brutally lynched a man on Wednesday, right at
the end of a ceremony where the new president, Catherine Samba-Panza.
Speaking to the assembled soldiers, Samba-Panza said they would be
paid salaries for the first time in five months, and said:

<QUOTE>"I would like to renew my pride in those elements of
FACA [Armed Forces of the Central African Republic] who are here
and to ask them to support my actions wherever they
are.<END QUOTE>

As soon as she left, soldiers grabbed a bystander, accused him of
being from the Seleka militia, and then lynched him with knives and
bricks, kicking him to the ground, stripping him to his underwear and
stabbing him over and over. Attempts to save the man only made the
mob even more furious. All of this took place in front of reporters
from AP, AFP and Reuters.

What makes this different even from the conflict in Syria is its raw,
personal, man to man brutality. In Syria, you have the genocidal
monster president Bashar al-Assad conducting "industrial strength"
torture and extermination on his own civilians. The war in Syria
might well end if al-Assad stepped down. In the case of al-Qaeda
linked jihadists, you have mass murder through bombings of markets and
mosques, and some tortures and individual murders.

But in CAR, this kind of lynching is going on now across the country,
by self-directed individuals. What makes today's story unique is that
it's done by soldiers in front of international reporters. The only
other country where this level of personal viciousness is occurring is
Burma (Myanmar), where Buddhist mobs are slaughtering entire Muslim
communities.

As I've explained several time, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis
era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely. This is
because all the survivors of that war are long gone, and nobody
in the younger generations have any personal memories of
its horrors.

Many people are describing the CAR war in religious terms, as Muslims
versus Christians, and that's true to an extent. But there's no
evidence that religion has anything to do with it except to identify
members of the two identity groups. There have been no stories of
priests or imams telling their respective "flocks" that they should go
out and kill people. This is a raw ethnic/tribal war, with the mass
hatred and lynchings coming from ordinary people, not from their
politicians or their clerics. And week after week it's building into
a new generational crisis war of ghastly proportions. National Post (Toronto) and Telegraph (London)

****
**** China struggles to import food from around the world
****

With memories of Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s,
when tens of millions of Chinese died of starvation, still in the
minds of many Chinese, almost nothing concerns Chinese officials more
than food security and food self-sufficiency. But with a huge and
growing population and demand for food, in the face of fast-depleting
water, land and labor resources, China is actually less
self-sufficient, and depends on food imports, especially from the
United States, to feed itself.

To better safeguard the country’s food security, China is trying to
diversify its food imports away from the US, to build its own global
food supply system by investing in overseas agricultural resources.
In Central Asia, China leases or controls hundreds of thousands of
hectares of farmland in Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.

In 2012, China contributed $1 billion to a joint Russia-China fund to
invest in agriculture and timber in Russia, leasing 600,000 hectares
of land and 800,000 hectares of forests.

China is expanding agricultural trade with Europe, especially leading
food exporters in France, the Netherlands and Germany. An interesting
footnote to the continuing political confrontation in Ukraine is China
has loaned $3 billion to Ukraine to develop its agriculture, in return
for which, Ukraine exports corn to China.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is headed for
both a world war and an internal civil war. The internal war would be
triggered by unemployment or food shortages, as has happened
repeatedly in China's history. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)

****
**** U.S. challenges China on South China Sea claims
****

Philippine President Benigno Aquino recently called on world leaders
not to "appease" China and drew a parallel to the 1938 decision to
give Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland to Adolf Hitler's Germany. This is
the same point that I've been making for several years, when I refer
to China's "Lebensraum" policy. China is claiming vast areas of the
South China Sea, including regions that that have historically
belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines,
and has threatened to use its vast military power to threaten and
subdue any neighboring nation that disobeys its orders.

Last year, the Philippines decided to challenge China's claims by
submitting the case to a United Nations tribunal for adjudication.
China contemptuously denounced that attempt, saying that everything in
the South China Sea belongs to China, and nobody but China has the
right to decide what belongs to China.

On Wednesday, Danny Russel, the US assistant secretary of state for
East Asian and Pacific affairs, said:

<QUOTE>"Any Chinese claim to maritime rights not based on
claimed land features would be inconsistent with international
law.

China could highlight its respect for international law by
clarifying or adjusting its claim to bring it into accordance with
international law of the sea."<END QUOTE>

I believe that the reference to the phrase "claimed land features"
means that if James Shoal is right off the coast of Malaysia, and
thousands of miles from China, then that region belongs to Malaysia,
not to China. (See "29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal"
)

Tensions have been growing in the South China Sea because of China's
military belligerence. Russel's statement is certain to bring new
angry denunciations from the Chinese. AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Catherine Samba-Panza,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Burma, Myanmar,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
China, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Russia,
Ukraine, France, Netherlands, Germany,
Philippines, Benigno Aquino, Hitler, Lebensraum,
Danny Russel, James Shoal, Malaysia

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*** 7-Feb-14 World View -- Russia contemplates Ukraine military action after Sochi

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia contemplates Ukraine military action after Sochi
• Pakistan government mediators talk to Taliban mediators

****
**** Russia contemplates Ukraine military action after Sochi
****


Portrait of Nazi WW II hero Stepan Bandera

Some Russian nationalists in Moscow are discussing a possible military
annexation of Ukraine once the Sochi Olympics games have ended. It's
becoming increasingly common to refer to the anti-government
protesters as "fascists" or "Nazis". In the case of some groups, this
characterization is not far from the truth. One anti-government
activist, Dmitry Yarosh, is a follower of Stepan Bandera, who helped
Hitler's army evict the Red Army from Ukraine during the Nazi invasion
of the Soviet Union in 1941. The question of military intervention is
being actively discussed during prime time on Russian state TV
channels. A former advisor to Russian president Vladimir Putin,
political scientist Andrey Illarionov, is frequently heard discussing
preparations for a military invasion:

<QUOTE>"Ukraine is a failed state, and the historic chance
for reunification of all the Russian lands can be lost in the next
couple of weeks, so we mustn’t put off the solution to the
Ukrainian Question."<END QUOTE>

The phrase "the solution to the Ukrainian Question" is not an
accident, but is an echo of Hitler's "the solution to the Jewish
question," and is accompanied by threats to send Ukrainian protesters
to a "frosty minus-60 degree resort" in Siberia. The 2008 Russian
invasion of Georgia, followed by the annexation of two Georgian
provinces, is being discussed as a model. The scenarios being
considered for Ukraine include annexation of the entire country, which
is considered to be unrealistic, to full control of Russian-speaking
eastern Ukraine, especially the Crimea and Sevastopol. Voice of Russia and Daily Beast and Voice of Russia

****
**** Pakistan government mediators talk to Taliban mediators
****

The "historic" negotiations to end the terrorist attacks in Pakistan
finally began on Thursday. The Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban -
TTP) send three negotiators and the government sent four negotiators
to a meeting in Islamabad to talk. Nothing that's decided would be
binding on anyone. And even if something were decided, the TTP is
merely an umbrella group under which some 40-50 autonomous extremist
organizations operate.

The TTP have said that terrorist attacks will continue during the
"peace talks." TTP has already killed more than 50,000 Pakistanis in
the last few years, so I guess they believe that a few hundred or
thousand more won't matter.

The TTP are demanding that Pakistan adopt "Sharia law," which has very
different meanings to different Muslim groups. The jihadists say that
want the strictest Wahhabi form, which they believe apparently gives
them the right to inflict suicide bombings on Shia Muslim mosques and
schools, as well as Sufis.

So, the "Pakistan peace process," like the "Israeli Palestinian peace
process" and the "Syria peace process" is just another game for show.
Daily Times (Pakistan) and Business Recorder (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Stepan Bandera,
Andrey Illarionov, Crimea, Sevastopol, Dmitry Yarosh,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Sharia law

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It is abundantly clear that the 4th Reich (e.g. the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its client states and client terrorist groups) is rising. Amazingly, if you Google "4th Reich" you get all kinds of bullshit claiming that the US is the 4th Reich. Yeah man, we hit neighborhoods with nerve gas, build secret underground factories to create off-the-books ICBMs, send our intel orgs to train Neo Nazis how to bash gays and post the videos, etc. Er, no we don't.

War is coming. Choose your side.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

It is abundantly clear that the 4th Reich (e.g. the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its client states and client terrorist groups) is rising. Amazingly, if you Google "4th Reich" you get all kinds of bullshit claiming that the US is the 4th Reich. Yeah man, we hit neighborhoods with nerve gas, build secret underground factories to create off-the-books ICBMs, send our intel orgs to train Neo Nazis how to bash gays and post the videos, etc. Er, no we don't.

War is coming. Choose your side.

Pick another name, please. The First Reich, or Empire was the Roman Empire, followed by the second: the Holy Roman Empire. Not surprisingly, the Third Reich was a German thing, since the Holy Roman Empire ended there.

... and it wasn't by accident that the German emperor was called Kaiser (literally the transliteration of Caesar).

*** 8-Feb-14 World View -- Central African Republic: Christians aim to get rid of all Muslims

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Central African Republic: Christians aim to get rid of all Muslims
• Reader complaints about Central African Republic and Syria

****
**** Central African Republic: Christians aim to get rid of all Muslims
****


A Christian man runs through looted and burning homes of Muslims who have fled for their lives (Nat. Geographic)

Thousands of Muslims are fleeing for their lives from
Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic, and
from towns across the country. They're escaping in convoys
being guarded by troops from Chad, a Muslim country.

The violence began after a March, 2013, coup that brought
a Muslim to the presidency. Muslims formed "Seleka militias"
and committed deadly attacks on Christians. Christians
formed "anti-balaka" (or "anti-machete") militias, and began
revenge attacks late in 2013. By now, the revenge attacks
are in full force. According to one reporter:

<QUOTE>"It's horrific, actually. You have a country that is
essentially falling apart. Neighbor killing neighbor on a daily
basis in the most brutal, horrific fashion I have ever
seen. Lynchings, people attacked by mobs, people having their arms
cut off, people burnt with tires around their necks like we saw in
South Africa in the 1990s. ...

I just saw today 10,000 Muslims forced to flee from Bangui and
surrounding towns north toward Chad, because they are in fear for
their lives. They are getting hacked to death, attacked in streets
by mobs, the districts they live in and their houses and mosques
are being looted and burned, so they have no choice but to
leave. ...

But it's the most violent and hateful environment I've ever
documented in 16 years. And I've covered every conflict in Africa
over that time, but I've never documented anything this bad.

There is so much hatred. Yesterday I was in a town that had eight
mosques and over 30,000 Muslims, but now the mosques have been
burnt and there are only 300 Muslims left there, hiding in a
mosque surrounded by French peacekeeping forces who are trying to
keep them alive."<END QUOTE>

France has 1,600 peacekeeping troops in CAR, who are working with
4,000 African Union peacekeeping troops. The United Nations expects
to send thousands more. But this is a generational crisis war, a
force of nature, which can't be stopped by any number of troops until
it's run its course. BBC and National Geographic

****
**** Reader complaints about Central African Republic and Syria
****

I'd like to address some reader complaints that have been
addressed to me recently when I write about Central African
Republic and about Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century,
comparable to Mao, Hitler and Pol Pot of the last century. He's a
Shia/Alawite Muslim who conducted "industrial strength" torture and
extermination on his own civilians, who used sarin gas against his own
people, who is allied with the Muslim terrorist group Hezbollah, and
who is allied with Muslim Iran which some people call the worst
terrorist country on earth.

And yet when I call al-Assad a "genocidal monster," I get bizarre
complaints that I'm excusing al-Qaeda terrorism. That's ridiculous,
as I write about al-Qaeda terrorism all the time, especially in
Pakistan.

But what's most bizarre is that many of the people who make this
complaint are in the community that perceive Muslims negatively,
sometimes referring to all of them universally as "murderous." That's
not true of more than a small minority, but if you really believe that
all Muslims are "murderous," then you should be aware that al-Assad is
the most murderous one of all.

So if you're one of those commenters who are holding those two
contradictory views simultaneously, then I suggest you ask your
doctor for anti-psychosis pills, because the cognitive dissonance is
going to drive you crazy.

This is actually very familiar. College kids in the 1960s praised Mao
Zedong as a god, even carrying copies of his "Little Red Book" in
their back pockets, and quoting from it from time to time. This was
going on at the same time that Mao was starving, torturing and
executing tens of millions of Chinese people in the Great Leap
Forward, and then again the Cultural Revolution.

There are still people today who consider Mao to be a god, and they
still praise him to the skies. And we all know that there are
Holocaust deniers who says that the evidence of the Holocaust was all
manufactured. These are all the same to me as lovers of al-Assad.

The situation in Central African Republic is drawing a number of
complaints because there are Christians committing atrocities on
Muslims. One accusation is that I'm excusing the atrocities of
Muslims, which is absurd.

I will agree with the commenters to the following extent: Large-scale
Christian atrocities are so rare at this time in history that there is
increased focus on the one in CAR, while there are so many Muslim
jihadist atrocities that any individual situation is not a major
story.

Another complaint was related to my contrast of the CAR war versus the
Syria war, when I said that the violence in CAR was more personal.

Let's go back to the Rwanda genocide in 1994. There were many stories
similar to the following: Two families lived together in peace and
harmony for years. Then when a Hutu leader announced over the radio,
"Cut down the tall trees," the man from the Hutu family picked up a
machete, went next door to the Tutsi family, killed and dismembered
the father and children, raped the wife, and killed and dismembered
her. Similar stories came out of the Bosnian war genocide in 1995.

This is the kind of thing that's beginning to happen in CAR, and it's
NOT happening in Syria, where something quite different is happening.
Even the atrocities of Muslim jihadists are rarely as personal as
described in the above story about Rwanda. That's why I'm saying that
the atrocities in CAR are "more personal" than in Syria. This is
an important distinction in generational theory, because this is
one way to distinguish generational crisis wars from non-crisis wars.

Getting back to the Christians committing atrocities on Muslims, it
may not be what I want to hear, or what you want to hear, but it's
happening. The Generational Dynamics methodology does not respect
ideological or religious beliefs, except as they define identity
groups, and analyzes what happens among the different identity groups.

If you look at the last century, you can easily find genocidal wars
that were Muslim versus Muslim (e.g., Iran/Iraq war), Christian versus
Christian (e.g., World War II), and Buddhist versus Buddhist (e.g.,
Cambodia's "killing fields" civil war). Of course there are hundreds
more examples with different kinds of populations. Generational
Dynamics looks at all of these examples, analyzes them, and uses the
analyses to try to predict what's going to happen in the future.

And right now, we can say with some certainty that the situation in
Central African Republic is going to get very bloody, and by the time
it's over, neither Muslims nor Christians will look good.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Seleka, anti-balaka,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mao, Hitler, Pol Pot,
al-Qaeda, Pakistan

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Reader complaints about Central African Republic and Syria
****

I'd like to address some reader complaints that have been addressed to me recently when I write about Central African Republic and about Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century, comparable to Mao, Hitler and Pol Pot of the last century. He's a Shia/Alawite Muslim who conducted "industrial strength" torture and extermination on his own civilians, who used sarin gas against his own people, who is allied with the Muslim terrorist group Hezbollah, and
who is allied with Muslim Iran which some people call the worst terrorist country on earth.

And yet when I call al-Assad a "genocidal monster," I get bizarre complaints that I'm excusing al-Qaeda terrorism. That's ridiculous, as I write about al-Qaeda terrorism all the time, especially in Pakistan.

But what's most bizarre is that many of the people who make this complaint are in the community that perceive Muslims negatively, sometimes referring to all of them universally as "murderous." That's not true of more than a small minority, but if you really believe that all Muslims are "murderous," then you should be aware that al-Assad is
the most murderous one of all.

So if you're one of those commenters who are holding those two contradictory views simultaneously, then I suggest you ask your doctor for anti-psychosis pills, because the cognitive dissonance is going to drive you crazy.

This is actually very familiar. College kids in the 1960s praised Mao Zedong as a god, even carrying copies of his "Little Red Book" in their back pockets, and quoting from it from time to time. This was going on at the same time that Mao was starving, torturing and executing tens of millions of Chinese people in the Great Leap Forward, and then again the Cultural Revolution.

There are still people today who consider Mao to be a god, and they still praise him to the skies. And we all know that there are Holocaust deniers who says that the evidence of the Holocaust was all manufactured. These are all the same to me as lovers of al-Assad.

The situation in Central African Republic is drawing a number of complaints because there are Christians committing atrocities on Muslims. One accusation is that I'm excusing the atrocities of Muslims, which is absurd.

I will agree with the commenters to the following extent: Large-scale Christian atrocities are so rare at this time in history that there is increased focus on the one in CAR, while there are so many Muslim jihadist atrocities that any individual situation is not a major story.

Another complaint was related to my contrast of the CAR war versus the Syria war, when I said that the violence in CAR was more personal.

Let's go back to the Rwanda genocide in 1994. There were many stories similar to the following: Two families lived together in peace and harmony for years. Then when a Hutu leader announced over the radio, "Cut down the tall trees," the man from the Hutu family picked up a machete, went next door to the Tutsi family, killed and dismembered the father and children, raped the wife, and killed and dismembered her. Similar stories came out of the Bosnian war genocide in 1995.

This is the kind of thing that's beginning to happen in CAR, and it's NOT happening in Syria, where something quite different is happening. Even the atrocities of Muslim jihadists are rarely as personal as described in the above story about Rwanda. That's why I'm saying that the atrocities in CAR are "more personal" than in Syria. This is
an important distinction in generational theory, because this is one way to distinguish generational crisis wars from non-crisis wars.

Getting back to the Christians committing atrocities on Muslims, it may not be what I want to hear, or what you want to hear, but it's happening. The Generational Dynamics methodology does not respect ideological or religious beliefs, except as they define identity groups, and analyzes what happens among the different identity groups.

If you look at the last century, you can easily find genocidal wars that were Muslim versus Muslim (e.g., Iran/Iraq war), Christian versus Christian (e.g., World War II), and Buddhist versus Buddhist (e.g., Cambodia's "killing fields" civil war). Of course there are hundreds more examples with different kinds of populations. Generational
Dynamics looks at all of these examples, analyzes them, and uses the analyses to try to predict what's going to happen in the future.

And right now, we can say with some certainty that the situation in Central African Republic is going to get very bloody, and by the time it's over, neither Muslims nor Christians will look good...

This is bang-on, and I don't say that as a cheerleader. While I appreciate your views on foreign affairs, I often disagree. Not this time. I try to judge by deeds rather than words, and these two conflicts fall well inside the boundaries you laid out. They are clearly atrocious, but not the same.

It was good to see you go through the logic behind your arguments. Worse - I suspect we'll see more of both varieties ... and we won't be able to do much about it. We are simply incapable of policing the world. The era of "white man's burden" is clearly over, and should remain over - even though atrocities like these scream for action.

FWIW, I was there when college students idealized Mao, and it was more naiveté than anything ... but it was clearly wrong.