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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 45







Post#1101 at 02-08-2014 11:36 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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9-Feb-14 World View -- Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei rants and accuses the U.S. of lying

*** 9-Feb-14 World View -- Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei rants and accuses the U.S. of lying

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei rants and accuses the U.S. of lying
  • Peaceful protests in Bosnia turn into widespread violence


****
**** Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei rants and accuses the U.S. of lying
****



Ayatollah Khamenei, sitting underneath a picture of his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini (Fars)

Now that the first of the sanctions have been lifted, and
international investors are beginning to flock to Iran, Iran's supreme
leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei delivered an anti-American rant on
Saturday to the Iranian Air Force commanders, accusing the Obama
administration of lying:

<QUOTE>"American officials, in negotiations with the
country’s (Iran) officials, say we are not after regime change in
Iran but they are lying because if they had the ability to do this
they would not hesitate one second.

The other reason behind US inability to change the Islamic
establishment [of Iran] is that the establishment relies on the
nation’s faith, kindness and resolve. One can change the tactics,
but principles must remain rock solid."<END QUOTE>

The speech commemorated the 35th anniversary of the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution that brought Khamenei's predecessor, Ayatollah Rouhollah
Khomeini, to power.

Khamenei's speech followed in incident on Friday, when the American
delegation walked out of a speech in Tunisia at a ceremony honoring
Tunisia's newly adopted constitution following the "Arab Spring." At
the ceremony, Iran's parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani referred to
Israel as a "cancer" in the region on Friday:

<QUOTE>"Even after the revolutions that happened in the
region, the US and Israel tried to divert and devastate some of
the revolutions so that Israel can benefit."<END QUOTE>

Khamenei and Larijani are both survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution which is being commemorated, and the great unifying theme
of that revolution was that America was the Great Satan whose puppet,
the Shah of Iran, had oppressed Iran's people for years. These aging
leaders keep trying to revive the unity of the 1979 Revolution by
claiming that America and Israel still want to defeat the revolution
and oppress the Iranian people again.

Iran's younger generations don't share these views. Most of them like
America and the West, and they don't particularly want to see Israel
pushed into the sea. So 75-year-old Khamenei's fears about a regime
change are well founded. His passing will trigger a generational
Awakening era crisis that will cause big changes, including some kind
of regime change. And as I've written many times, my expectation is
that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will be the
ally of America, Israel, Russia, India and others versus China,
Pakistan, the Sunni Muslim countries, and others. Jerusalem Post and Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Iran)

****
**** Peaceful protests in Bosnia turn into widespread violence
****


Three days of anti-government protests in Bosnia led to violence
across the country on Friday, when protesters set fire to government
buildings and fought with riot police in Sarajevo and other cities.
This was the worst civil unrest since the genocidal war in
Bosnia-Herzegovina that followed the dissolution of the former
Yugoslavia in 1992, killing 100,000 people and leading to a crisis war
climax in 1995 with the Srebrenica massacre. (See "12-Jul-13 World View -- Bosnia commemorates the 1995 Srebrenica massacre"
.) Srebrenica is
considered the worst genocide in post-war Europe. At least 8,300
Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) men and boys who had sought safe haven at the
U.N.-protected enclave at Srebrenica were killed by Orthodox Christian
Serbs under the leadership of General Ratko Mladic, who coined the
phrase "ethnic cleansing." Mladic is still considered a hero by many
Serbs, who say that no crime was committed, as he was just defending
Serbs. Ratko Mladic stands accused of committing war crimes, crimes
against humanity and genocide.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is made up of two separate entities: a
Bosniak-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Bosnian
Serb Republic, or Republika Srpska, each with its own president,
government, parliament, police and other bodies. With 40%
unemployment, there are around 550,000 unemployed people in Bosnia.
There are widespread charges of corruption stemming from the deep
divisions within the dual government framework.

People are expressing fears of a new civil war, like the one in
1992-95. However, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
that's literally impossible. It's been 19 years since the climax of
the Bosnian war, and so Bosnia is just entering a new Awakening era,
as the young generation born after the war start protesting and making
their views heard. However, their parents still remember that
absolute horrors of the Bosnian war, and will do everything in their
power to keep it from happening. It's worth noting that Friday's
violence disappeared on Saturday, and the protests were almost all
peaceful. BBC and AP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Tunisia,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Srebrenica massacre, Ratko Mladic,
Serb Republic, Republika Srpska, Bosniak-Croat Federation

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Post#1102 at 02-09-2014 06:31 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
> This is bang-on, and I don't say that as a cheerleader. While I
> appreciate your views on foreign affairs, I often disagree. Not
> this time. I try to judge by deeds rather than words, and these
> two conflicts fall well inside the boundaries you laid out. They
> are clearly atrocious, but not the same.

> It was good to see you go through the logic behind your
> arguments. Worse - I suspect we'll see more of both varieties
> ... and we won't be able to do much about it. We are simply
> incapable of policing the world. The era of "white man's burden"
> is clearly over, and should remain over - even though atrocities
> like these scream for action.

> FWIW, I was there when college students idealized Mao, and it was
> more naiveté than anything ... but it was clearly wrong.
I can't recall the last time, if ever, that I received a compliment in
the Fourth Turning forum, so I appreciate this probably more than you
realize. Thanks.

You're right that we are no longer capable of policing the world, but
that fact in itself has substantial consequences for the world that
few want to face up to. And that will probably be the cause of the
first catastrophe when the Regeneracy occurs.

John







Post#1103 at 02-10-2014 12:13 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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10-Feb-14 World View-Swiss vote to impose immigration quotas, violating EU agreements

*** 10-Feb-14 World View -- Switzerland votes to impose immigration quotas, violating EU agreements

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Switzerland votes to impose immigration quotas, violating EU agreements
  • Opposing sides in Ukraine exchange threats of terror and bankruptcy
  • U.S. General criticizes Japan, Philippines for China-Nazi comparisons


****
**** Switzerland votes to impose immigration quotas, violating EU agreements
****



The caption says: 'The excess is harmful! Stop mass immigration - YES.' I'm not sure what the tree symbolizes, but in the picture its roots are strangling Switzerland.

In a nationwide referendum on Sunday, Switzerland voted by a razor
thin vote of 50.3% to re-impose quotas on immigrants from other
countries, including EU countries. Switzerland is not a member of
17-nation eurozone bloc, nor is it a member of the 28-nation European
Union, though it's surrounded by eurozone and EU countries. For 12
years, Switzerland's borders have been open to all EU countries
(though not to other countries). The referendum was strongly opposed
by the Swiss government. The greatest effect of implementation of
Sunday's vote would be to close the borders to workers from the EU,
many of them highly qualified.

The size of the vote varied across the country. Ticino is the only
canton with an Italian language majority, and it voted 78% to curb
immigration. Ticino borders Italy, and is having major social and
economic problems from grossly underpaid foreigners, sometimes working
as black market laborers. On the other hand, cantons in western
Switzerland were strongly against limiting immigration, with 60-70%
voting "no".

The "yes" vote threatens several agreements with the European Union,
including trade agreements that permit most of Switzerland's exports
to go to the EU. EU officials say that they're reviewing the
situation to which of these agreements will have to be terminated.
Swiss officials have three years to implement the new immigration
quotas, and they've indicated that they plan to move very slowly.
Geneva Lunch and Bloomberg

****
**** Opposing sides in Ukraine exchange threats of terror and bankruptcy
****


Some 30,000-50,000 anti-government activists rallied in Kiev on
Sunday, the capital city of Ukraine, to demand the resignation of
President Viktor Yanukovych, chanting:

<QUOTE>"A new constitution. A new president. A new
government. A new country. This is what we want and we will
prevail. Glory to Ukraine."<END QUOTE>

Many wore blue and yellow ribbons, the colors of both Ukraine and the
European Union, to emphasize their demands that Ukraine should be more
closely linked to Europe than to Russia.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) placed its anti-terrorist units
on high alert, saying in a statement that it had received reports of
terrorist incidents, including bomb threats at nuclear and
hydroelectric power stations.

The government opposition warned that the country is headed for
financial default. In the last month, the logic of bankruptcy
has been reversed. Ukraine has been headed for bankruptcy for
some time, but Russia's president Vladimir Putin offered to
bail them out with a $15 billion loan, provided that they
signed a trade agreement with his Eurasian Customs Union rather
than the EU. However, as the riots and violence have grown,
Putin announced that he would withhold the bailout money until
Ukraine joins the customs union.

So now the opposition is saying that since Putin is withholding
payment, the country is headed for default again. But opposition
leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk says that the U.S. and the European Union are
ready to step in with financial aid. Good to know. AFP and Ukrainian News Agency and
Bloomberg

****
**** U.S. General criticizes Japan, Philippines for China-Nazi comparisons
****


Gen. Herbert J. "Hawk" Carlisle, the commander of
the Pacific Air Forces, is criticizing leaders of Japan
and the Philippines for drawing comparisons between China's
actions today and those of Nazi Germany prior to World War II.
In these columns, I've repeatedly referred to China's current
policies as being similar to Hitler's "Lebensraum" policies.

According to General Carlisle:

<QUOTE>"The rise of Germany and what occurred between the
U.K. in particular and Germany, and what happened in Europe, I
don’t draw that comparison at all to what’s going on today [in the
Asia-Pacific].

Some of the things, in particular that have been done by Japan,
they need to think hard about what is provocative to other
nations."<END QUOTE>

Carlisle urged all countries in the region to try to defuse tensions.
In particular, he cautioned China not to extend an air-defense
identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea as it did in the
East China Sea separating China from Japan, because itoulw be "very
provocative."

Several days ago, I quoted U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East
Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel as "Any Chinese claim to
maritime rights not based on claimed land features would be
inconsistent with international law." This statement turns out to be
an official U.S. rejection of China's famous "nine-dash line map"
claiming regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. According to Russel,
any Chinese claims "must be derived from land features," and
not from a historical map not recognized by anyone else.
According to a China analyst formerly of the Obama administration:

<QUOTE>"[F]or the first time, the United States government
has come out publicly with an explicit statement that the
so-called 'nine-dash line' ... is contrary to international
law."<END QUOTE>

According to China's foreign ministry, "Some US officials make
groundless accusations against China." Bloomberg and Radio Free Asia


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Switzerland, European Union,
Ticino, Italy, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Arseniy Yatsenyuk,
Gen. Herbert J. "Hawk" Carlisle, China, Japan,
Philippines, South China Sea, Hitler, Lebensraum

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Post#1104 at 02-10-2014 11:04 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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11-Feb-14 World View -- Pakistan asked to send 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia

*** 11-Feb-14 World View -- Pakistan asked to send 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Korea's demilitarized zone (DMZ) guarded by Microsoft Kinect game software
  • Pakistan asked to send 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia
  • Iran calls al-Qaeda the 'the Saudi-US lovechild of terrorism'


****
**** Korea's demilitarized zone (DMZ) guarded by Microsoft Kinect game software
****



Playing volleyball using Microsoft's Kinect motion-sensing technology

South Korea's military is using Kinect, the motion-sensing software
that Microsoft uses in its X-Box game controllers, to guard the
155-mile long demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating South and North
Korea. The DMZ was established in 1954 as part of the armistice that
ended the Korean war. It's called a "no-man's land," because it's
heavily fortified with fences and landmines.

The Kinect technology was originally developed for Microsoft by
Ko Jae-Kwan of Saewan Co., and the South Korean military
is using it because it's better than any of the sensors they
had previously been using. According to Ko:

<QUOTE>"Existing sensors, which had been in place along the
border, were highly efficient but could not tell the difference
between humans and animals, sending wrong signals
frequently."<END QUOTE>

The South Korean military has been embarrassed in the past by highly
publicized incidents of undetected border crossings, including the
case in 2012 when a defecting North Korean soldier simply walked
undetected across the border and knocked on the door of a guard post.
AFP

****
**** Pakistan asked to send 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia
****


Reports out of Pakistan indicate that Saudi Arabia has asked
Pakistan to dispatch 30,000 troops to the Kingdom as part
of a bilateral defense agreement that's currently being
formulated in a flurry of visits and meetings between
defense and military officials from the two countries.
Pakistan's prime minister
Nawaz Sharif said:

<QUOTE>"In view of current challenges, there is a need to
further strengthen defense cooperation between the two countries
and a new era of strategic relationship needs to
start."<END QUOTE>

The particular "current challenges" facing Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
are the rise of Iran, and Iran's rapprochement with the United States.
Both countries fear that Iran will develop nuclear weapons and that,
in the end, the West will do nothing to prevent it. Indeed, one of
the jobs of the Pakistani troops will be military training for the
Saudi army, a function that was formerly performed by American troops.

In 2008, Iran was our bitter enemy, and Saudi Arabia was our close
ally. It was in 2008 that I first wrote, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis, that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world
war, Iran would be allied with the West, while Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan would be allied with China. (See "China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount"
from 2008.)

During the last six years, it's been very interesting to see how Saudi
Arabia has moved away from the U.S., while Iran is moving closer to
the U.S. The hardline survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution have been retiring and dying, leaving behind younger
generations that like the West, and have no particular animus against
Israel. In Pakistan, on the other hand, the people are increasingly
hostile to the United States and to India. MEMRI and
The National (UAE)

****
**** Iran calls al-Qaeda the 'the Saudi-US lovechild of terrorism'
****


Iran sees the growing accord between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as a
threat to Iran and to Shia Muslims in general, and uses the usual
award-winning talking point of blaming the U.S. for everything to
express its anger.

Iran itself has been targeted by al-Qaeda linked Jundullah (Soldiers
of God), which has perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and
Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran. Another al-Qaeda
linked group, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), wants to exterminate all Shias
and Hazaras in Pakistan. According to the head of a Shia
political organization in Pakistan:

<QUOTE>"Not one day passes without a martyr falling in
Karachi, in Peshawar, in all Pakistani cities. If we have thirty
days in a month, we have more than 100 martyrs every month. And
they are being killed by the Saudi support. Saudi Arabia is
supporting those who are behind these attacks."<END QUOTE>

Iran has developed a narrative that blames all terrorism in the
Mideast on America's support for Afghan and Pakistani troops that were
fighting against Russian troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
According to Iranian analyst Dr. Ismail Salami, al-Qaeda is the "love
child of terror" spawned by Saudi Arabia and America:

<QUOTE>"Originally established by Washington in Afghanistan
during the military occupation of the country by Soviet Union, it
was called al-Qaeda, meaning 'base'. Soon, the group was expanded
under the aegis of the CIA and Saudi-funded Pakistani intelligence
agency (ISI) in order to oust the Soviet forces from the region
and safeguard the interests of the US government.

Following a secret long-term agenda, Washington recruited
militants from different parts of the region including
Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Jordan, Yemen and central
Asian countries with the ultimate goal of disseminating and
instilling an ideology of perversion in the name of Islam in the
world. ...

In the final analysis, the center cannot hold and the Saudi-US
lovechild of terrorism is running amuck and falling
apart."<END QUOTE>

I have to say that's quite a fanciful narrative, though no more
fanciful than some of the things you hear from the New York Times or
NBC News. Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Iran) and Press TV (Iran)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Microsoft, Kinect, South Korea,
North Korea, demilitarized zone, DMZ, Ko Jae-Kwan, Saewan,
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Ismail Salami,
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Afghanistan, Iran, Jundullah

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Post#1105 at 02-11-2014 11:40 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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12-Feb-14 World View -- Obama slams French businessmen in front of France's president

*** 12-Feb-14 World View -- Obama slams French businessmen in front of France's president

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Obama slams French businessmen in front of France's president
  • Slaughter by Syria's al-Assad and ISIL continues despite 'truce'


****
**** Obama slams French businessmen in front of France's president
****



François Hollande and Barack Obama

At a Washington press conference on Tuesday, held jointly with
France's president François Hollande, president Barack Obama
criticized businessmen who try to violate the sanctions against Iran.
He was apparently referring to a delegation of 116 French businessmen,
with representatives from major companies like Total, Lafarge and
Peugeot, who visited Tehran last week in hopes of getting a big chunk
of business with Iran when the sanctions are completely lifted.

According to President Obama:

<QUOTE>"Businesses may be exploring -- are there some
possibilities to get in sooner rather than later if and when there
is an actual agreement to be had?

But I can tell you that they do so at their own peril right
now. Because we will come down on them like a ton of
bricks."<END QUOTE>

Is this another "red line"? Does anyone believe anything President
Obama says any more? Isn't this just so much hot air?

Hollande didn't seem to flustered. He said that he did not control
French corporations, though had made clear sanctions on Iran would not
be dismantled until a final deal on Iran's nuclear program had been
reached. Expatica France

****
**** Slaughter by Syria's al-Assad and ISIL continues despite 'truce'
****


During the "peace talks" in Geneva last week, Syria's Bashar al-Assad
regime killed some 1,900 people in one week, mostly with barrel bombs,
which are barrels or canisters packed with explosives and metal,
designed to flatten civilian neighborhoods and kill as many people as
possible. So far in February, some 2,500 deaths have been documented,
making it likely to be one of the deadliest months so far in the Syria
war.

So it's somewhat laughable that the politicians and the media are
calling it a great victory that al-Assad has agreed to a temporary
truce and allow 1,000-2,000 civilians leave the wrecked city of Homs.
Making up for that is just a few days work for the genocidal monster
president of Syria, and for his puppetmasters in Moscow.

Meanwhile reports continue to surface, as they have for months, that
the al-Assad regime and the ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the
Levant) terrorists are either implicitly or explicitly cooperating
together as allies to kill as many "moderate" opponents of the regime,
as well as the al-Qaeda linked al-Nusra. So we have two terrorists --
"industrial strength" terrorist al-Assad, and "ordinary" terrorist
group ISIL -- as allies in a war to gain control of western and
eastern Syria, respectively. It seems likely that the whole "peace
process" in Geneva is a big joke, and al-Assad is never going to agree
to anything. Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera and Daily Star (Lebanon)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, François Hollande,
Iran, Barack Obama, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, al-Nusra,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL

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Post#1106 at 02-12-2014 11:21 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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13-Feb-14 World View -- Resurgence of Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria

*** 13-Feb-14 World View -- Resurgence of Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Turkey-Israel relations may be close to normalization
  • Resurgence of Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria


****
**** Turkey-Israel relations may be close to normalization
****



The Mavi Marmara

Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Sunday that Israel
and Turkey are the closest they've been to a normalization of
relations in years. According to Davutoglu, there have been "positive
developments":

<QUOTE>"There has recently been a momentum and new approach
in compensation talks. We could say that most of the differences
have been removed recently in these discussions."<END QUOTE>

Turkey broke off diplomatic relations with Israel after the deaths of
nine Turkish citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between
Israel's navy and the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza
in violation of Israel's Gaza blockade. Since then, prime minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has specified three conditions that Israel would
have to fulfill, in order to restore normal relations. First, Israel
would have to apologize, and Israel did so last March, under intense
pressure for president Barack Obama.

Second, Israel would have to pay monetary compensation to the families
of the victims. According to Davutoglu, negotiations have
significantly reduced the difference in the amount between what Turkey
demanded and Israel has offered. On Monday, it was reported that the
Israeli government had decided that it would pay $20 million to the
victims' families. In return, Turkey will agree to drop charges in
its own courts against the IDF soldiers who participated in the raid
on the Mavi Marmara.

Erdogan's third condition was the lifting of the blockade of Gaza.
According to Davutoglu, Israel has "eased" the embargo on Gaza. On
Tuesday, Erdogan renewed his condition, demanding that Israel provide
a "written protocol" that they would end the Israeli "siege" on Gaza.

However, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday
confirmed that he has rejected Erdogan's demand to provide a written
statement. It remains to be seen whether further negotiations will
yield a compromise. Hurriyet (Turkey) and Israel National News

****
**** Resurgence of Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria
****



Nigeria, showing major historic tribes. Northern tribes (Fulani, Hausa) are generally Muslim, southern tribes (Yoruba, Igbo, Berom) are generally Christian.

Gunmen from the al-Qaeda linked terrorist group Boko Haram ("Western
education is forbidden") killed 51 people on Tuesday in an attack on a
majority Muslim town in northeast Nigeria. Dozens of Boko Haram
fighters speeding along in trucks painted in military colors and armed
with automatic weapons and explosives the town, burning houses and
shooting fleeing villagers. They also took 20 young girls from a
local college as hostages.

This comes after two incidents last week. On Friday, terrorist
gunmen in cars and on motorbikes burst into a Christian family's
home and killed a family of seven. On the previous Sunday,
52 people were killed when gunmen stormed a church.

Prior to 2009, Boko Haram was a little known Muslim sect of ethnic
Kanuri people. Starting in 2010, Boko Haram began a series of
terrorist attacks across the country, often bombing Christian
churches, saying their objective was to eliminate all Christians. In
the last year, Boko Haram has announced the intention to establish an
Islamist state in Nigeria's northeast.

The rise of Boko Haram from a terrorist group to a well-armed militia
is another unintended consequence of the West's military intervention
in Libya in 2011. The Libyan action provided a training ground for
Islamist jihadists, including Boko Haram, and also provided vast
stores of heavy weapons stolen from Muammar Gaddafi's unguarded
storehouses.

There has been a resurgence of Boko Haram violence since the beginning
of the year. Nigeria's Christian president Goodluck Jonathan has
repeatedly promised that an army campaign would clean out the Boko
Haram terrorists once and for all. However, those attempts have been
stymied, reportedly because some politicians and army members support
Boko Haram. Reuters and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mavi Marmara, Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Goodluck Jonathan

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Post#1107 at 02-14-2014 06:32 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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14-Feb-14 World View -- European Union to 'mobilize' private savings for bailouts

*** 14-Feb-14 World View -- European Union to 'mobilize' private savings for bailouts

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • 'Brilliant, bitter singles' ruin Valentine's Day for Shanghai, China, couples
  • Greece's unemployment reaches new record high
  • European Union to 'mobilize' private savings for bailouts
  • 2,500 couples marry in South Korea in pre-Valentine's Day ceremony


Welcome to the Valentine's Day edition of Generational Dynamics World
View!

****
**** 'Brilliant, bitter singles' ruin Valentine's Day for Shanghai, China, couples
****



A scene from Beijing Love Story

A Shanghai male named "UP" who broke up with his girlfriend last year
and who describes himself as a "computer nerd" has found a unique way
to ruin Valentine's Day for numerous other couples in Shanghai. Any
couple wanting to go to the cinema to see the popular movie Beijing
Love Story will have to split up. Using crowdfunding, "UP" collected
enough money from "brilliant, bitter singles" to purchase tickets to
all the odd-numbered seats in the theatre, so that any lovers wanting
to see the movie will have to sit at least one seat apart from each
other. According to an online posting by "UP":

<QUOTE>"Want to see a movie on Valentine’s Day? Sorry,
you’ll have to sit separately. Absence makes the heart grow
fonder. Give us singles a chance."<END QUOTE>

Beijing Love Story is a movie based on a hit TV series. The plot of
the movie is told through the eyes of five couples; Two teenagers meet
and find purest puppy love; A young couple are convinced they are soul
mates after making eye contact for the first time; A middle aged
couple are torn apart when the husband repeatedly cheats on his wife;
A couple who have been married for decades try to spice up their
marriage by playing special games; And a grandmother tries to find
another woman to take care of her husband after discovering she has a
terminal illness.

This is not the first time that young Chinese have rebelled against
Valentine's Day. In the 1990s, they created "Singles Day," to be
celebrated each year on November 11 (11/11) because of the four 1's in
the date. There was a particularly big Singles Day celebration in
2011 on 11/11/11. Shanghaiist and Global Times (Beijing)

****
**** Greece's unemployment reaches new record high
****


Greece's unemployment rate rose further to a new record high of 28% in
November, according to the country's statistics agency ELSTAT
(Hellenic Statistical Authority). Youth unemployment also reached a
record high rate of 61.4%. Economists expect things to get worse in
the early part of this year as companies continue to restructure and
fire workers. Greek Reporter

****
**** European Union to 'mobilize' private savings for bailouts
****


The European Union is looking for ways to fund long-term investments,
including bailout loans, by "mobilizing" private savings, which
presumably means that private savings would be confiscated, as
happened in the bailout of Cyprus last year. Also under consideration
is a voluntary EU savings account, where investors could pool their
money for investment in small companies. (The Obama administration
has proposed a similar plan known as "MyRA".)

This approach is being increasingly discussed. In a publication by
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October of last year, the
following appears on page 49 of the report "Taxing Times":

<QUOTE>"The sharp deterioration of the public finances in
many countries has revived interest in a "capital levy" -- a
one-off tax on private wealth -- as an exceptional measure to
restore debt sustainability. The appeal is that such a tax, if it
is implemented before avoidance is possible and there is a belief
that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may
be seen by some as fair). There have been illustrious supporters,
including Pigou, Ricardo, Schumpeter, and -- until he changed his
mind -- Keynes. The conditions for success are strong, but also
need to be weighed against the risks of the alternatives, which
include repudiating public debt or inflating it away (these, in
turn, are a particular form of wealth tax -- on bondholders --
that also falls on nonresidents).

There is a surprisingly large amount of experience to draw on, as
such levies were widely adopted in Europe after World War I and in
Germany and Japan after World War II. Reviewed in Eichengreen
(1990), this experience suggests that more notable than any loss
of credibility was a simple failure to achieve debt reduction,
largely because the delay in introduction gave space for extensive
avoidance and capital flight -- in turn spurring inflation. The
tax rates needed to bring down public debt to precrisis levels,
moreover, are sizable: reducing debt ratios to end-2007 levels
would require (for a sample of 15 euro area countries) a tax rate
of about 10 percent on households with positive net
wealth."<END QUOTE>

In other words, confiscating people's assets and savings is most
effective when it's a complete surprise, so that people can't practice
"extensive avoidance and capital flight." Reuters and Zero Hedge and International Monetary Fund (PDF)

****
**** 2,500 couples marry in South Korea in pre-Valentine's Day ceremony
****



Korean couples prepare for marriage on Wednesday (AFP)

2,500 South Korean couples will be able to spend Valentine's Day in
marital bliss, thanks to a mass wedding held on Wednesday by the
Unification Church, founded by the late Sun Myung Moon. The mass
weddings began in the 1960s with only a few couples, but they reached
a peak in 1997 with 30,000 couples. Many of the couples met only a
few hours before the wedding, having been personally matched by Sun
Myung Moon or, since his death, by his widow. However, marriage won't
be TOO blissful on Valentine's Day, since the couple must promise to
refrain from sexual relations for at least 40 days after marriage.

South Korea isn't the only country holding mass weddings. In
Pakistan, a charitable organization donated dowries to 70 poor young
women in Punjab, allowing them all to finally get married in a mass
wedding. In Nigeria, a mass wedding program was launched in 2012 to
enforce Islamic law by helping single people pair up. The Nigerian
government provides each bride with a dowry and utensils. AFP and Global Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Valentine's Day, Shanghai, China,
Beijing Love Story, Singles Day,
Greece, ELSTAT, Hellenic Statistical Authority,
European Union, Cyprus, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
South Korea, Unification Church, Sun Myung Moon,
Pakistan, Nigeria

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Post#1108 at 02-14-2014 11:48 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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15-Feb-14 World View - Pakistan sells warplanes to Saudis, denies nuclear cooperation

*** 15-Feb-14 World View -- Pakistan will sell warplanes to Saudis, denies nuclear cooperation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Russia will sell warplanes to Egypt
  • Pakistan will sell warplanes to Saudis, denies nuclear cooperation
  • France sending more troops to Central African Republic


****
**** Russia will sell warplanes to Egypt
****



MiG-29 'Fulcrum' warplane (Richard Seaman)

Russia will sell $3 billion in weapons systems to Egypt, after an
agreement was reached during a visit to Moscow by Egypt's defense
minister and likely new president Field Marshal Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi. The weapons include MiG-29M/M2 Fulcrum fighter jets, air
defense missile complexes, Mi-35 helicopters, coastal anti-ship
complexes, light weapons and ammunition.

Russia was Egypt's main arms supplier in the 1960s and early 1970s.
Egypt is returning to Russia now, because of military aid cutbacks by
the United States following the military coup that ousted president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. Ria Novosti and Al Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Pakistan will sell warplanes to Saudis, denies nuclear cooperation
****


Pakistan announced that it plans to sell JF-17 Thunder combat jets and
other aircraft and equipment to Saudi Arabia. The JF-17 was developed
jointly by China and Pakistan. This announcement comes days after
reports that Saudi Arabia is asking Pakistan to send 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia"
. Pakistan and
Saudi Arabia are signing defense cooperation agreements because of the
rise of Iran.

Saudi Arabia is also very concerned that Iran is developing a nuclear
weapon, and some reports are suggesting that Pakistan is also planning
to sell nuclear weapons technology to the Saudis. However, Pakistan's
foreign minister is denying this:

<QUOTE>"We have a nuclear weapons program which is a
declared one. We have extensive security regimes. Our civilian
nuclear program is under the [International Atomic Energy
Agency] safeguards and it is meant to provide energy and it is
also used in agriculture and medical fields.

The IAEA and other organizations have listed Pakistan as a model
country with regard to the security mechanisms that we have in
place."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia is thought to be turning to Pakistan because its
relationship with the United States has been souring. The News (Pakistan) and Indian Express

****
**** France sending more troops to Central African Republic
****


France said on Friday that it plans to send 400 additional
peacekeeping troops to the Central African Republic (CAR), making a
total deployment of 2,000 troops, working with the African Union force
of 6,000 peacekeepers. The troops are being sent because a wave of
"ethnic-religious cleansing" and "mass atrocities" loom over CAR. The
mass atrocities are being committed by Christian tribes in retaliation
for last year's attacks on Christians by Muslim Seleka militias.
( "8-Feb-14 World View -- Central African Republic: Christians aim to get rid of all Muslims"
)

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the CAR conflict is
spiral into a full-scale generational crisis war, despite increasingly
desperate international efforts to prevent it. CAR's last
generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War
of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR deep
into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly
likely. CAR is geographically the size of Texas, with over 5
million people, and so 400 additional troops will make no difference
whatsoever. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, MiG-20 Fulcrum, Egypt,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, JF-17 Thunder,
France, Central African Republic,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle

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Post#1109 at 02-14-2014 11:52 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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So we are starting to see re-alignments in international politics.







Post#1110 at 02-15-2014 11:59 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
So we are starting to see re-alignments in international politics.
Yes, and these are very startling and very significant changes.







Post#1111 at 02-15-2014 09:49 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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16-Feb-14 World View-Syria talks collapse, putting U.S. military action back on table

*** 16-Feb-14 World View -- Syria talks collapse, putting U.S. military action back on table

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Mediator Brahimi blames collapse of Syria talks on al-Assad regime
  • Collapse of Syria talks puts U.S. military action back on the table
  • Indonesia on the alert for jihadists returning from Syria


****
**** Mediator Brahimi blames collapse of Syria talks on al-Assad regime
****



Lakhdar Brahimi on Saturday (Fars)

It's not a surprise to anyone, but the Syria "Geneva II peace talks"
officially collapsed on Saturday, with no date set for future "peace
talks."

United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi uncharacteristically assigned
blame for the collapse, apparently to the Syrian regime of Bashar
al-Assad. He seemed close to tears as he announced:

<QUOTE>"I'm very very sorry and I apologize to the Syrian
people -- that their hopes which were very very high, that
something will happen here -- I think that the little that has
been achieved in Homs gave them even more hope. ... I apologize
to them that these two rounds have not helped them very much. ...

Unfortunately, the government have refused, which raises the
suspicion of the opposition that in fact the government doesn't
want to discuss peace at all. ...

My message to those who are concerned in the crisis in Syria to
think of the Syrian people and their huge suffering which was
imposed on them."<END QUOTE>

The two sides were unable to agree to an agenda for continuing the
talks. The earlier peace talks in Geneva in June 2012, and now called
"Geneva I," called for an end to the Syrian civil war by the
resignation of president Bashar al-Assad, and instituting a new
transitional governing body with members from the former al-Assad
government, as well as members from the opposition.

The al-Assad regime wanted no part of that discussion, but only wants
to discuss "terrorism," referring to the jihadists in Syria. So
Brahimi came up with a kind of compromise: The Geneva II peace talks
would discuss "terrorism" on day 1, then discuss the "transitional
governing body" on day 2, and alternate between the two topics on
subsequent days.

Well, the al-Assad regime refused to even discuss the "transitional
government body," and his spokesman said that the terrorism problem
has to be completely solved and agreed by all sides "with a common
vision," before any other topic could be even discussed. According to
reporters, the opposition were willing to be flexible and discuss all
issues, but the al-Assad regime refused to discuss anything but their
chosen topic. This is what led to Brahimi's statement,
"Unfortunately, the government have refused, which raises the
suspicion of the opposition that in fact the government doesn't want
to discuss peace at all."

According to Brahimi, a third round of talks was planned, but no date
was set. The agenda for the third round will be:

  • Violence and terrorism
  • A transitional governing body
  • National institutions
  • National reconciliation


AFP and BBC

****
**** Collapse of Syria talks puts U.S. military action back on the table
****


The farcical nature of the "Geneva II peace conference," and its
inevitable collapse, while Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar
al-Assad continues to drop barrel bombs on innocent women and
children, is causing renewed debate in Washington over military action
in Syria.

The parameters of this debate are as follows:

  • If al-Assad launched a second chemical weapons attack against
    his own people, then there could be a military attack.
  • There are no plans for American "boots on the ground," though it's
    a possibility in some scenarios such as, for example, al-Assad's
    chemical weapons fall into the hands of al-Nusra.
  • U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel suggest that Russia may have
    supplied Syria with chemical weapons or, at least, the military
    equipment used to support al-Assad's chemical weapons program.
  • The majority of members of Congress are still opposed to military
    action under any circumstances.


If a U.S. missile attack on Syria is approved, then the choice of
targets would be as follows, according to Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey:

  • First, targets "directly linked to the control of chemical
    weapons but without exposing those chemical weapons to a loss of
    security."
  • "Secondly, [targets that involve] the means of delivery."
  • And the third [group of targets include] those things that the
    regime uses -- for example, air defense, long-range missiles and
    rockets -- in order to protect those chemical weapons or, in some
    cases, deliver them.


ABC News

****
**** Indonesia on the alert for jihadists returning from Syria
****


As we've been saying repeatedly for months, the war crimes
being committed by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and
by Russia's president Vladimir Putin for supplying weapons
to al-Assad, have made Syria the magnet for jihadists from
countries around the world.

In Indonesia, the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) was
responsible for the horrendous Bali bombings in 2002, but in recent
years, JI has become ineffectual. Now it's believed that dozens of
fighters have gone to Syria for training and experience, and now are
returning. "The danger remains that fighters returning from Syria
could infuse new energy into Indonesia's weak and ineffectual jihadi
movement," according to an Indonesian report. Central Asia Online


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Geneva II, Lakhdar Brahimi,
Bashar al-Assad, Chuck Hagel,
Indonesia, Jemaah Islamiyah, JI, Bali

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Post#1112 at 02-15-2014 09:55 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Yes, and these are very startling and very significant changes.
Another way in which the MilSaec is fading away. I grew up with the Cold War. With new re-alignments we will see a new strategic world.







Post#1113 at 02-16-2014 10:52 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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17-Feb-14 World View -- Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus

*** 17-Feb-14 World View -- Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus
  • The 'New Frugality' versus the 'New Criminality'


****
**** Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus
****



Smoke rises from tourist bus on Sunday (Reuters)

A terrorist bomb exploded on a bus carrying 33 tourists in Egypt on
Sunday. The explosion killed the Egyptian bus driver and three South
Korean tourists. The attack took place in the Red Sea resort town of
Taba, in south Sinai, just before the bus was about to cross over into
Israel.

No one has yet claimed credit for the attack, but it's suspected that
the perpetrators are the al-Qaeda linked Sinai terrorist group Ansar
Jerusalem (Ansar Bayt al Maqdis or Champions of Jerusalem), which has
claimed credit for several major terrorist bombings in the past.

Terrorist attacks have been increasing since the army coup that ousted
president Mohamed Morsi on July 3 of last year, with Ansar Jerusalem
claiming credit for many of them, but up till now the targets have
been security targets and personnel. This is the first terrorist
attack since 2008 on tourists. Tourist visits to Red Sea resorts are
an important source of income for Egypt, and it's feared that Sunday's
attack begins a new escalation designed to destroy Egypt's economy.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters

****
**** The 'New Frugality' versus the 'New Criminality'
****


Neil Howe who, along with the late William Strauss, founded
generational theory in the 1980s, says in Forbes that analysts in the
national media are wrong to blame the decline in labor force
participation on the aging population, since the Boomer generation is
actually increasing its labor force participation, and is the only
generation currently to be doing so.

He suggests another explanation: That Generation-X has a new social
mood, an enduring "New Frugality," of spending less, working less, and
buying cheaper. According to Howe:

<QUOTE>"Xers also prefer to do things for themselves. They
don’t trust others to get the job done right and consider paying
others for services they could perform themselves inefficient. Why
buy something new when you could employ crafty DIY tactics for
half the price? Why pay nannies to look after your kids while you
work to be able to afford their services? And why work law firm
hours at today’s high marginal tax rates, when you’ll just have to
give more of your money back?"<END QUOTE>

He adds that since mainstream analysts' assumptions are wrong, their
conclusions are wrong as well:

<QUOTE>"Pundits keep offering theories about when America
will return to pre-recession spending, GDP growth, and employment
rates. But if Xers continue to work and spend according to a New
Frugality ethos, these milestones will remain
elusive."<END QUOTE>

Howe's point is that, because of generational factors, the global
financial crisis is far from over, and the economic growth that
politicians are counting on is not going to happen. This is a point
that I too have been making for years, and it's backed up by the
Velocity of Money chart that I posted last month:


Velocity of Money, 1959-2013 (St. Louis Fed)

The velocity of money has been cratering since the financial crisis
began in 2007, and it means that people aren't spending money. This
is propelling the economy into a deflationary spiral.

However, there's another side to the "New Frugality," and that's the
"New Criminality."

It's easy to forget how much criminality there's been in the last
decade, since the Gen-Xers came to power. There was the creation and
sale of trillions of dollars in fraudulent mortgage-backed securities
by thousands of bankers -- not a single one of which has gone to jail.

Analysts on CNBC lie constantly about stock valuations. There isn't
even a pause any more. The lying is just part of the culture. That's
criminal activity if anyone cared. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations"
from
earlier this year.)

Then there's the Gen-Xer-in-chief in Washington. Does anyone, even
his supporters, believe a word he says any more? And it doesn't
matter. As I've said, if President Obama picked up a gun and shot and
killed Michele, then the NY Times and NBC News would blame it on the
Republicans.

Probably nothing is worse right now than Obamacare. Each day, it
destroys another part of the economy, just as Bashar al-Assad's barrel
bombs destroy innocent people's neighborhoods in Syria. But it
doesn't matter to Obama.

This is the standard Nomad archetype/Generation-X nihilistic paradigm:
Destroy everything so that you can start over with a blank slate, also
sometimes stated as "You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet."
The Gen-Xer-in-chief believes that if enough of the medical insurance
industry is destroyed, then Obamacare will survive, and his name will
go down in history for government medical insurance. (See "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X"
from 2008.)

All of these are examples of massive criminality that's been going on
in the past decade, which would have been completely unthinkable a
decade earlier, when the people of the Silent generation were in
charge.

The "New Criminality" is the mirror image of Howe's "New Frugality."
If CNBC analysts lie with impunity about stock valuations, and Obama
lies with impunity about Obamacare, then it's impossible to trust
anyone, and you have to do everything for yourself, which is what Howe
says about Gen-Xers. I know that's the way I feel, and I'm not a
Gen-Xer. Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Sinai, Mohamed Morsi,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, Champions of Jerusalem,
New Frugality, New Criminality, Generation-X

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Post#1114 at 02-17-2014 11:31 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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18-Feb-14 World View -- Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches

*** 18-Feb-14 World View -- Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches
  • Venezuela expels three American diplomats after anti-government protests
  • United Nations accuses North Korea of 'unspeakable atrocities'


****
**** Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches
****



Alex Salmond, leader of Scottish National Party and of Scotland's independence movement (Reuters)

On September 18, Scotland will have a referendum on the question:
"Should Scotland be an independent country?" If the vote is YES then
nobody knows for sure what will happen next. During the last ten
days, two major issues have arisen to threaten the viability of an
"independent" Scotland:

  • Britain's Finance Minister George Osborne said that the UK
    would be unwilling to enter a currency union with Scotland, presumably
    meaning that Scotland would have to create its own currency.
  • Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission,
    said that it would not be automatic that Scotland would belong to the
    European Union, and that in fact there would be long process requiring
    the approval of all 28 countries.


In the worst case scenario, Scotland would be an independent entity
completely on its own, like nearby Iceland and Norway.

If the UK continues to refuse a currency union with an independent
Scotland, then Scotland will have three major choices:

  • Just continue using the British pound sterling as before, in
    the same way that Panama uses the US dollar as a currency, and
    Montenegro uses the euro.
  • Issue a new Scotland pound currency, and peg it to the British
    pound.
  • Try to join the eurozone, but once again, this would be a lengthy
    process.


Ten years ago, when talk of Scottish independence began, these
choices seemed a lot easier. But since then, there's been a
major financial crisis which has split southern countries
like Greece and Italy versus the northern countries like France
and Germany. Even seemingly solid Ireland has been in trouble.
An independent Scotland, whether in the eurozone or a currency
union with the UK, might just end up being another crisis.

It's not at all clear that an independent Scotland could become part
of the European Union. Spain in particular is fighting its own
internal battle with its Catalonia region seeking independence, and
supporting Scotland might encourage Catalonia to fight harder for
independence.

The English and the Scots are as different as Irish Protestants and
Catholics, or as Sunni and Shia Syrians. Scotland and England have
gone through a number of periods of unity and disunity for hundreds of
years.

The Battle of Bannockburn, on June 24, 1314, was a great victory for
Scottish forces against superior English forces. It was the climax of
the First War of Scottish Independence, and established Scotland as an
independent nation. Scotland and England fought against each other in
a number of subsequent wars, including the War of the Roses (1459-87),
and the Armada war with Spain (1588). The most explosive war that
followed Scottish independence was the English Civil War (1640-49),
that climaxed with the beheading of the English King in 1649. There
followed a generational Recovery Era where Britain had no King, but
was actually ruled by a military dictator, Oliver Cromwell, bringing
Scotland under English control, until a new King was crowned in 1661.
During the generational Awakening era in the 1660s and 1670s, Scotland
began demonstrating against English control, culminating in the
Awakening era climax, the so-called "Glorious Revolution" of 1689,
making the Scottish Parliament independent once again. In 1701, the
next generational Crisis war began, the War of the Spanish Succession,
which allied Scotland and France against England. Miraculously,
England defeated the French army in the Battle of Blenheim in 1704,
and then again in the explosive and tumultuous climactic Battle of
Malplaquet in 1709. After France's defeat at Blenheim, Scotland was
finally brought to heel, and England and Scotland signed the "Acts of
Union" between the two countries, under a single king or queen,
forming the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707.

It's now been 700 years since the Battle of Bannockburn, and the
question of Scotland's independence is rising again. Polls indicate
that the Scots themselves are slightly opposed to independence.
BBC and Scotsman

****
**** United Nations accuses North Korea of 'unspeakable atrocities'
****



A drawing by a former prisoner shows a practice known as pigeon torture

A United Nations panel has accused North Korea of crimes against
humanity, including systematic extermination, torture, rape, forced
abortions, starvation, arbitrary detention, executions and prison
camps. The police and security forces of the Democratic People's
Republic of Korea systematically employ violence and punishments that
amount to gross human rights violations in order to create a climate
of fear that pre-empts any challenge to the current system of
government and to the ideology underpinning it. The institutions and
officials involved are not held accountable.

The U.N. recommends prosecution of the country's top leaders by the
International Criminal Court. This will never happen, of course,
because China will veto any such attempt in the Security Council.
BBC

****
**** Venezuela expels three American diplomats after anti-government protests
****


Venezuela on Monday gave three U.S. diplomats 48 hours to leave the
country, accusing them of conspiring against the government to incite
large, violent anti-government protests.

Venezuela has the highest level of inflation in the world, 56%.
There's a huge crime wave, but 90% of the cases are never solved.
Despite its oil reserves, there are shortages of electricity. There
are shortages of most everything else, even toothpaste and toilet
paper. Last year, President Nicolás Maduro announced a new Vice-Ministry for the Supreme Social Happiness,
whose purpose was to coordinate anti-poverty programs,
but apparently it hasn't succeeded.

It seems likely that the disastrous economy is behind the new wave of
anti-government protests, which have led to three deaths in clashes
with police. Nonetheless, the Maduro's government blames the protests
on the United States. According to Foreign Minister Elias Jaua:

<QUOTE>"They have been visiting universities with the pretext
of granting visas.

But that is a cover for making contacts with (student) leaders to
offer them training and financing to create youth groups that
generate violence."<END QUOTE>

In November, Maduro accused the United States of orchestrating a
"massive attack" against the Twitter accounts "of Bolivarian patriots
and Venezuelan Chavistas." The world Bolivarian alludes to Simón
Bolivar, the 19th century founder of Venezuela. The word "Chavista"
alludes to Maduro's late predecessor, Hugo Chávez. When Chávez was
dying of cancer, he accused the United States of giving him cancer by
poisoning him. Reuters and Latin American Herald Tribune

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Scotland, Alex Salmond, United Kingdom,
George Osborne, Jose Manuel Barroso,
Battle of Bannockburn, War of the Roses, Armada war,
English Civil War, Oliver Cromwell, Glorious Revolution,
War of the Spanish Succession, Battle of Blenheim,
Battle of Malplaquet, Greece, France, Germany,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez, Elias Jaua,
Vice-Ministry for the Supreme Social Happiness,
United Nations, North Korea, China

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Post#1115 at 02-17-2014 11:45 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Feels like the beginning of the formation of the New Allies and the New Axis.







Post#1116 at 02-18-2014 11:22 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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19-Feb-14 World View -- Ukraine chaos raising anxieties among Russia's nationalists

*** 19-Feb-14 World View -- Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia's nationalists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Ukraine police storm protest camp in Kiev after bloody Tuesday
  • Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia's nationalists
  • Thailand police storm protest camp in Bangkok, leaving four dead


****
**** Ukraine police storm protest camp in Kiev after bloody Tuesday
****



Fire and smoke billows from the protest camp in Kiev on Tuesday night (EPA)

In Ukraine, 18 people were killed and hundreds injured, both police
officers and protesters, in bloody clashes on Tuesday between
anti-government protesters in central Kiev, which they have been
occupying for months. The protesters are demanding that pro-Russian
President Viktor Yanukovich resign, and allow a pro-European
government take its place. The protesters took an even more bitter
political turn on Tuesday Russia's president Vladimir Putin provided a
$2 billion loan to the President, to strengthen his political
position.

The Kiev protests are a clash between two ethnic groups: The majority
Ukrainian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians who occupy the western part of
the country, outnumbering the Russian-speaking ethnic Russians living
in the east. In the "Orange Revolution" of 2003, the same
president Yanukovich was forced to step down from office, and was
replaced in new elections by someone more agreeable to the ethnic
Ukrainians. Yanukovich won reelection in 2010, and is now
threatened by a new "Orange Revolution."

At the time of this writing on Tuesday evening ET, security police are
charging protesters in central Kiev and meeting resistance. The
clashes have been mostly confined to central Kiev so far, but there
are growing fears that the fighting could spread, and turning into a
full-fledged civil war -- which is not impossible, since Ukraine is in
a generational Crisis era. AFP and LA Times

****
**** Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia's nationalists
****


There is still a great deal of concern about what Russia is going to
do if things don't go their way in Ukraine. It's widely believed that
any military action by Russia in Ukraine is "on hold" for the duration
of the Sochi Olympics, and the fears are of what Russia might do once
the Olympics games have ended.

Russian nationalists are expressing a great deal of anxiety about the
events in Ukraine, because they're afraid of similar anti-government
protests in Russia. Aleksandr Samsonov, a well-known commentator,
says that Russians should be under no illusions about the threat they
face from the chaos that Ukraine is rapidly sinking into. He argues
that what is going on threatens to return Europe to the situation of
the 1930s, with the “rebirth” of Russophobic, fascist and neo-Nazi
ideology” in Ukraine and its import into North Caucasian nationalists
and jihadists. He says that Joseph Stalin was prepared and able to
repulse these threats, but it is not clear that Russia could do so
currently—or that Moscow even recognizes that “the union of liberals,
national separatists, and Islamists is a terrible threat,” one that
could lead to the spilling of “rivers of blood” in Russia. Russian
society needs to be mobilized against this threat, he says. Jamestown

****
**** Thailand police storm protest camp in Bangkok, leaving four dead
****


In Thailand, four people were killed and 64 injured, both police
officers and protesters, when police tried on Tuesday to clear
anti-government protesters from central Bangkok, which they have been
occupying for months. The protesters are demanding that prime
minister Yingluck Shinawatra resign, and allow the protesters to
appoint an unelected "People's Council" that will rule in place of the
elected government. The protesters took an even more bitter political
turn on Tuesday as the country's anti-corruption commission filed
charges against the Prime Minister.

The Bangkok protests are a clash between two ethnic groups: the
"yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite
minority, vastly outnumbered by the "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai
who do most of the menial labor, and who continue to support the
Yingluck's Pheu Thai political party. Because of the Thai-Thai
majority, the Pheu Thai have won the last five elections and can
continue to do so. That's why the elite Thai-Chinese anti-government
protesters want to replace the elected government with their own
People's Council that they can control.

The situations in Thailand and Ukraine appear to be similar, but from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics they're very different. In
particular, unlike Ukraine, Thailand is in a generational Awakening
era, and so a civil war in Thailand is literally impossible, while
it's quite possible in Ukraine. What happens during an Awakening era
is that there are periods of conflict, like you see today in Thailand,
alternating with "peace agreements" that never last. Each period of
conflict is worse than the previous one, until a full-fledged civil
war begins several decades later. So Thailand is nowhere close to a
civil war, but Ukraine might be. CNN



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Kiev, Viktor Yanukovich,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Orange Revolution, Aleksandr Samsonov,
Thailand, Bangkok, Yingluck Shinawatra

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Post#1117 at 02-19-2014 11:04 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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20-Feb-14 World View -- Ukraine's president fires army chief amid protest crisis

*** 20-Feb-14 World View -- Ukraine's president fires the chief of the army amid protest crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Ukraine's president fires the chief of the army amid protest crisis
  • Two suicide bombings target Iran's cultural center in Beirut Lebanon
  • George Soros bets that Wall Street is headed for a fall


****
**** Ukraine's president fires the chief of the army amid protest crisis
****



Monuments to Kiev's founders burn on Tuesday (AP)

Fears of civil war in Ukraine increased on Wednesday when president
Viktor Yanukovych fired Colonel-General Volodymyr Zamana, the chief of
the army, on the bloodiest day of protests in Kiev so far, with 26
people killed in clashes between protesters and police. This is at a
time when the government in Kiev is losing control of much of the
western part of Ukraine.

For the army chief to be fired during the middle of a major government
crisis has led to speculation that Zamana had refused a direct order
to use force on civilians. It's also possible that his replacement,
naval commander Admiral Yuriy Ilyin, will be asked to take back
control of western Ukraine.

Speaking on the BBC World Service, Reuben F. Johnson, Kiev
correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly, made the following comments
(my transcription):

<QUOTE>"It's almost certainly because the president is
looking for a military leader who when given an order to use the
armed forces against the public will follow that order. ...

We've already heard reports from more than two weeks ago from
western parts of Ukraine basically saying, if people show up, if
troops show up on the president's orders from another part of
Ukraine, then our troops and our police will fight them. It will
be civil war. There'll be violence without a doubt. It's headed
for civil conflict on a very big scale."<END QUOTE>

Late in the day, Yanukovych announced that he'd reached a truce
agreement with the opposition to end the violence, but he's announced
such agreements before. BBC and AFP(1/24)

****
**** Two suicide bombings target Iran's cultural center in Beirut Lebanon
****


The string of terrorist attacks specifically targeting Hezbollah and
Iranian assets in Lebanon continued on Wednesday, when two suicide car
bombs targeted an Iranian cultural center in Beirut, killing six
people and wounding 80 others.

The string of terrorist attacks was triggered by the announcement,
last April 30, by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah gave a
televised speech saying that Hezbollah would militarily enter the
fight in Syria on the side of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. Nasrallah reluctantly agreed to enter the Syrian war after
being commanded to do so by his Iranian puppetmasters. ( "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast"
)

The Al-Qaeda-linked Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed credit for
Wednesday's attack on Twitter:

<QUOTE>"Your brothers in the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, Ali
Hussein Bin Ali brigades, claim the raid of the Iranian Cultural
Center and it is a twin suicide bombing. It is in response to
Iran's party [Hezbollah] fighting alongside the criminal regime in
Syria, and the continued detention of Muslim youth in Lebanese
prisons. ...

We will continue... to target Iran and its party in Lebanon, in
its security and political and military centres, until our demands
are achieved. First: that the Party of Iran (Hezbollah) withdraws
its forces from Syria. Second, that our prisoners are released
from Lebanese prisons."<END QUOTE>

Nasrallah's announcement last year further inflamed Sunni versus Shia
violence throughout the Mideast. He recently reaffirmed his decision
for Hezbollah to continue fighting in Syria. Daily Star (Beirut) and AFP

****
**** George Soros bets that Wall Street is headed for a fall
****


According to SEC filings on Friday, George Soros has made a $1.3
billion bet that the S&P 500 stock index is headed for a sharp fall,
by increasing his holdings of "put options on the S&P 500 ETF SPY,"
which increase in value when the S&P 500 falls.

Even the most Pollyannaish financial experts have been anticipating a
10-20% stock market correction for over a year now, saying that the
market the had to regroup before it could rise to new heights. But
the experts have been repeatedly wrong, and there's been no
correction. But now apparently Soros is so certain that a correction
is coming that he's bet a lot of money on it. Market Watch



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Kiev, Viktor Yanukovich,
Volodymyr Zamana, Yuriy Ilyin, Reuben F. Johnson,
Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Abdullah Azzam Brigades, Ali Hussein Bin Ali brigades,
George Soros

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Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 02-20-2014 at 07:53 AM.







Post#1118 at 02-19-2014 11:23 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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I was reviewing some info on Alex Duggin today. What is going on right now in Ukraine seems to have a certain NBP signature to it. I'm not referring to the protesters I'm referring to the Pro-Putin factions of the government and other centers of power. Meanwhile the opposition in both Ukraine and Belarus are reaching Westward to their Polish brethren. The sides are forming up. And the fault line will be right through the middle of Ukraine.







Post#1119 at 02-19-2014 11:26 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Like Japan, Poland is a screw driver turn away from having nukes.







Post#1120 at 02-20-2014 07:55 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Like Japan, Poland is a screw driver turn away from having nukes.

"a screw driver turn away" -- I like that metaphor.

John







Post#1121 at 02-20-2014 11:42 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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21-Feb-14 World View -- U.S. naval intelligence chief confirms worst fears of China

*** 21-Feb-14 World View -- U.S. naval intelligence chief confirms worst fears of China's military buildup

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • China is training for a 'short, sharp war' with Japan
  • How a world war with China would unfold
  • Intelligence chief Fanell confirms worst fears of China's military buildup


****
**** China is training for a 'short, sharp war' with Japan
****



The Senkaku Islands are thought to be in the midst of vast gas and oil resources (Reuters)

China has long trained for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan during
military exercises but has now expanded its training to include a
similar attack on the Senkaku Islands and other Japanese holdings in
the East China Sea. All branches of China's People's Liberation
Army (PLA) participated in a massive exercise last year for
taking these islands.

According to James Fanell, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence and
Information Operations, U.S. Pacific Fleet:

<QUOTE>"We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross
military region enterprise — Mission Action 2013. [We] concluded
that the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a
short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea
following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus
or even a southern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics
say. ...

Tensions in the South and East China Seas have deteriorated with
the Chinese Coast Guard playing the role of antagonist, harassing
China’s neighbors while PLA Navy ships, their protectors, (make)
port calls throughout the region promising friendship and
cooperation."<END QUOTE>

This concept of a "short, sharp attack" is quite credible, as the
Chinese people widely believe that America has become weak because of
the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and that, particularly under President
Barack Obama, Americans have little will to oppose China. Thus, they
could quickly overwhelm Japan's forces, America would do nothing, and
Chinese ownership of the Japanese islands would be part of the new
status quo.

History has shown that this is a disastrous assumption.

In April, 1861, the army of America's southern Confederacy captured
Fort Sumter in a "short, sharp attack." Undoubtedly, many Southern
officials believed that the North wouldn't even care, since the Fort
was isolated in Southern territory. And yet the North did care,
triggering the extremely bloody American Civil War.

In 1939, the Nazis launched a "short, sharp attack" on Poland. They
thought that Britain was weak and uninterested, since they'd already
ignored an earlier short, sharp attacks on Austria and Czechoslovakia.
The attack on Poland triggered World War II.

So, one can imagine that the Chinese believe that a short, sharp
attack on these Japanese islands would bring no American response,
like the Nazi attack on Czechoslovakia. Even if that turns out to be
true, history shows that American nationalism would surge so high that
any further military action by China would trigger a response,
spiraling into a new world war.

The Pentagon has issued a statement saying that they expect to have
peace in our time, responding to Fanell's assessment as follows:

<QUOTE>"What I can tell you about what Secretary Hagel
believes is that we all continue to believe that the peaceful
prosperous rise of China is a good thing for the region, for the
world. We continue to want to improve our bilateral military
relations with China and that we also think that a major component
of that is increased transparency on their part about the
investments they're making and the operations they're conducting,
and that's where I leave it."<END QUOTE>

United States Naval Institute and Voice of America

****
**** How a world war with China would unfold
****


People ask me this question all the time: If a war with China
ever happens, how and when would it start?

Of course, answering that question would require a mind-reading
capability, but history tells us a lot about how such a war
would start and unfold.

Looking at World War II, we have two different examples to examine.
The war in Europe began with Germany's "short, sharp attack" on
Czechoslovakia, and so China's attack on the Senkakus may trigger a
war. Or, we can look at the Pacific war that began with an
all-out attack by the Japanese, and so the war may begin with
a massive missile attack by the Chinese on America's aircraft
carriers, cities, and military installations.

No matter what the scenario, history tells us that the Chinese
population would greet such a war with jubilation.

Here's how historian Wolfgang Schivelbusch describes how war begins in
his 2001 book, The Culture of Defeat: On National Trauma, Mourning,
and Recovery
:

<QUOTE>"The passions excited in the national psyche by the
onset of war show how deeply invested the masses now were in its
potential outcome. Propaganda had reinforced their conviction that
"everything was at stake," and the threat of death and defeat
functioned like a tightly coiled spring, further heightening the
tension. The almost festive jubilation that accompanied the
declarations of war in Charleston in 1861, Paris in 1870, and the
capitals of the major European powers in 1914 [American Civil War,
Paris Commune, and World War I, respectively] were anticipatory
celebrations of victory -- since nations are as incapable of
imagining their own defeat as individuals are of conceiving their
own death. The new desire to humiliate the enemy, noted by
Burckhardt, was merely a reaction to the unprecedented posturing
in which nations now engaged when declaring war.

The deployment of armies on the battlefield is the classic
manifestation of collective self-confidence. If both sides are not
convinced of their military superiority, there will be no
confrontation; rather, those who lack confidence will simply flee
the field. Accordingly, the battle is decided the moment the
confidence of one side fails. The will to fight ("morale")
evaporates, the military formation collapses, and the army seeks
salvation in flight or, if it is lucky, in organized retreat. The
Greek term for this point in space (on the battlefield) and time
(the course of the battle) was trope. The victors demarcated the
spot with the weapons of the vanquished and later with monuments,
yielding the term tropaion, from which we get our word trophy."
(p. 6-7)<END QUOTE>

The euphoria goes on until something goes wrong, as has happened to
Americans since 2003, even though we've never had any really major
military disasters in Iraq.

The panicked reaction can be much greater when a military disaster
occurs. In his 1832 book, On War, General Carl von Clausewitz
describes what happens:

<QUOTE>"The effect of defeat outside the army -- on the
people and on the government -- is a sudden collapse of the
wildest expectations, and total destruction of self-confidence.
The destruction of these feelings creates a vacuum, and that
vacuum gets filled by a fear that grows corrosively, leading to
total paralysis. It's a blow to the whole nervous system of the
losing side, as if caused by an electric charge. This effect may
appear to a greater or lesser degree, but it's never completely
missing. Then, instead of rushing to repair the misfortune with a
spirit of determination, everyone fears that his efforts will be
futile; or he does nothing, leaving everything to
Fate."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events that cause
this "sudden collapse" and "total destruction" of self-confidence
are called "regeneracy events," because they regenerate civic unity
for the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war.

In other words, once the euphoria of war with China is destroyed (and
this will be true of both the American and Chinese side), the conflict
begins to turn into an all-out generational crisis war, where no the
life of no individual human being will have any value at all, and the
only thing that matters is survival of the nation and its way of life.

Once again, we can look to World War II for examples. The Allies
allowed tens of thousands of young American soldiers to be shot down
like fish in a barrel on the beaches of Normandy, they firebombed
Dresden and Tokyo, and they used nuclear weapons on two Japanese
cities. This is what ALWAYS happens at the climax of a crisis war,
even by the most benevolent of belligerents. General Carl von Clausewitz, On War

****
**** Intelligence chief Fanell confirms worst fears of China's military buildup
****


For years I've been referring to China's media reports bragging about
new missile systems of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) specifically
designed -- with no other purpose -- than to overwhelm American
missile defenses and strike American aircraft carriers, American
military installations, and American cities. America's vulnerability
has been substantially weakened in recent years by defense cutbacks,
and by the massive release of secret information by Edward Snowden,
which may have left America's defenses completely exposed.

In a separate presentation, in addition to the one described above,
intelligence chief James Fanell describes China's actions in the South
China Sea by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN):

<QUOTE>"Suffice it to say that my assessment is that the PLA
Navy has become a very capable fighting force. Much of the
intelligence record is classified beyond what we can discuss in
this forum, but just to give you one example, in 2012, the PLA
Navy sent seven surface actions groups and the largest number of
its submarines on deployment into the Philippine Sea in its
history – and a significant increase in some areas from the years
before, or just the year before.

Make no mistake, the PLA Navy is focused on war at sea and about
sinking an opposing fleet.

The PLA Navy’s civil proxy, an organization called “China Marine
Surveillance,” has escalated a focused campaign since 2008 to gain
Chinese control of the near seas, and they now regularly challenge
the exclusive economic zone resource rights that South Korea,
Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Vietnam
once thought were guaranteed to them by the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea. ... China is negotiating for
control of other nations’ resources off their coasts. “What’s mine
is mine, and we’ll negotiate what’s yours.” ...

Incidentally, unlike U.S. coast guard cutters, Chinese marine
surveillance cutters have no other mission but to harass other
nations into submitting to China’s expansive claims. Mundane
maritime government tasks like search-and-rescue, regulating
fisheries, ice breaking and criminal law enforcement are handled
by other agencies. ...

In my opinion, China is knowingly, operationally and incrementally
seizing maritime rights of its neighbors under the rubric of a
maritime history that is not only contested in the international
community, but has largely been fabricated by Chinese government
propaganda bureaus in order to quote-unquote “educate” the
populace about China’s “rich maritime history” clearly as a tool
to help sustain the Party’s control.

Last year’s Scarborough Shoals seizure typifies the confrontations
that China is having with its neighbors. It’s one that exhibited
all the common characteristics of China’s aggression. First, they
are initiated by the egregious conduct of China’s actors –
sometimes the Chinese government, sometimes private entities. At
Scarborough Reef, Chinese fishermen were excavating live coral and
harvesting endangered species, including giant clams.

Second, Chinese official spokesmen will issue fabricated stories
to explain the incidents; in the case of Scarborough, the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs spokesman said the “Chinese fishermen were
seeking refuge from storms.”

Simply not true. You can Google the weather that day: winds 5-10
knots, seas less than two feet, sunny, there were no
thunderstorms."<END QUOTE>

Fanell is confirming the Chinese strategy that we've been describing
for years. China's seizure of the Scarborough Shoal from the
Philippines in 2012 is similar to reports of plans for China's
military to seize one island after another in the South China Sea.
( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines"
) China is counting on the fact that any
"short, sharp attack" on any one island won't bring an American
response.

As we've said before, it's impossible to predict the timing of
all this, but there's no possible way to interpret China's
actions except as massive preparations for preemptory war
with the United States, and the analysis by intelligence chief
Fanell confirms that.

OK, Dear Readers, please resume your regular activities of spending
all your time arguing with one another about whether the world will
end in 2100 because of Global Warming. China Business Intelligence


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Taiwan, Sankaku Islands,
James Fanell, Wolfgang Schivelbusch, Carl von Clausewitz,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal

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Post#1122 at 02-21-2014 12:04 AM by Ragnarök_62 [at Oklahoma joined Nov 2006 #posts 5,511]
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Cool Other stuff for here.




Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
Last year saw a great number of widely publicized instances of food fraud and general nastiness when it came to the various items many of us regularly put in our bodies. From “fake tuna,” to rat meat in the streets of Shanghai, to alcohol in New Jersey diluted with “river water,” the list was seemingly endless.
While 2014 has been off to a slow start, it appears the corporate food industry in America is trying to make up for lost time. According to a news release from the USDA on Valentine’s Day titled: “California Firm Recalls Unwholesome Meat Products Produced Without the Benefit of Full Inspection,” we discover that:

WASHINGTON, Feb. 14, 2014 – Rancho Feeding Corporation, a Petaluma, Calif. establishment, is recalling approximately 8,742,700 pounds, because it processed diseased and unsound animals and carried out these activities without the benefit or full benefit of federal inspection. Thus, the products are adulterated, because they are unsound, unwholesome or otherwise are unfit for human food and must be removed from commerce, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today.
Oh, and by the way, this is a Class I recall. What does that mean?


Venezuela goes Ukraine
With all eyes focused on Ukraine, the situation in Venezuela has once again escalated as protest leader Leopoldo Lopez' arrest (and possible 10 year jail sentence) prompted more violence overnight. However, as we warned, the government crackdown is starting to raise concerns about the stability of the government.

  • *VENEZUELA PROTESTS ESCALATING INTO NATIONWIDE UNREST: IHS
  • *ESCALATION OF PROTESTS PUTS STABILITY OF GOVT AT RISK: IHS
  • *RISING VIOLENCE COULD LEAD TO MADURO OUSTER BY MILITARY: IHS

As opposition leader Capriles asks Venezuela's military to uphold the constitution, he exclaims that "the poor' must participate for government to change.

  • *VENEZUELA HATILLO MAYOR DAVID SMOLANSKY SPEAKS IN CARACAS
  • *VENEZUELA PEOPLE WON'T STAY QUIET: SMOLANSKY
  • *SMOLANSKY SAYS VENEZUELA SUFFERED TERROR LAST NIGHT
  • *SMOLANSKY CALLS FOR MASSIVE VENEZUELA PROTESTS SATURDAY


The opposition leader speaks:

  • *VENEZUELA OFFICIALS SHOT AT PROTESTERS YDAY: CAPRILES
  • *VENEZUELA ARMED FORCES SHOULD ALLOW PEACEFUL MARCHES: SMOLANSKY
  • *VENEZUELA STRENGTHENING TIES WITH CUBA, RAMIREZ SAYS
  • *VENEZUELA GOVT USING VIOLENCE TO HIDE ECO PROBLEMS: CAPRILES
  • *CAPRILES SAYS SOME IN VENEZUELA GOVT WANT MADURO OUT
  • *CAPRILES ASKS VENEZUELA ARMED FORCES TO UPHOLD CONSTITUTION
  • *VENEZUELA POOR MUST PARTICIPATE FOR GOVT TO CHANGE: CAPRILES
  • *CAPRILES SAYS HE WON'T BE FORCED TO TALK TO VENEZUELA GOVT


And IHS warns:

  • *VENEZUELA PROTESTS ESCALATING INTO NATIONWIDE UNREST: IHS
  • *ESCALATION OF PROTESTS PUTS STABILITY OF GOVT AT RISK: IHS
  • *RISING VIOLENCE COULD LEAD TO MADURO OUSTER BY MILITARY: IHS






Mcdonald's sign looks pretty cool






So, I guess the contagion will come to the US , oh about 2020. I expect the financial districts to sorta look like this. Molotovs for banksters.


Keywords: Venzuela, Ukraine, Molotov Coctails, USDA, tainted meat, rat meat, fox meat, mouse meat, Mcdonalds, unrest.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP

There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."







Post#1123 at 02-21-2014 10:03 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62 View Post
Other stuff for here.
That's a pretty good column. Why don't you do one very day?







Post#1124 at 02-21-2014 11:44 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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22-Feb-14 World View -- Europeans broker a 'peace agreement' in Ukraine

*** 22-Feb-14 World View -- Europeans broker a 'peace agreement' in Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Europeans broker a 'peace agreement' in Ukraine
  • Ukraine's parliament votes to free president's arch-enemy from jail
  • Venezuela and other countries increasingly block press freedom


****
**** Europeans broker a 'peace agreement' in Ukraine
****



Yulia Tymoshenko, Yanukovych's arch-enemy

With violence growing in Ukraine, and the country becoming increasing
lawless and ungovernable, foreign ministers from Poland, France and
Germany brokered a Ukraine peace agreement between president Viktor
Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition. Whether the agreement
will get fully implemented remains to be seen, and it leaves
Yanukovych in power, at least for the time being, in defiance of the
key demand of the opposition that he step down. Instead, the
agreement calls for new elections by December, which opposition
leaders say is far too late. However, the opposition signed
because European leaders warned them that the alternative
was martial law.

Under the agreement, Ukraine's parliament voted to restore the 2004
constitution, limiting some of Yanukovych's power and giving more
power to the parliament. The parliament also voted to fire the
interior minister who ordered police violence that resulted in
hundreds of deaths.

It's not clear how much support the agreement will continue
to have. In particular, the Russian envoy to the negotiations
originally initialed the agreement, but then disappeared before
the final signing, apparently on orders from Moscow.

Some people sang the Ukraine's national anthem after the agreement:

<QUOTE>Ukraine has not yet perished,
The glory and the freedom!
Still upon us brave brothers,
Fate shall smile!
Our enemies will vanish
Like dew in the sun;
We too shall rule
In our country.<END QUOTE>

That's the original 1863 version. In later versions, the first two
lines were changed to: "Ukraine's glory has not yet perished, nor her
freedom." AP

****
**** Ukraine's parliament votes to free president's arch-enemy from jail
****


After the agreement was signed, Ukraine's parliament voted to free
Yulia Tymoshenko, a bitter political enemy of the president Viktor
Yanukovych. Tymoshenko became of a world recognized figure in 2004 of
her distinctive mix of peasant hair and high-fashion dresses, after
she played a major role in the 2004 "Orange Revolution" that ousted
Viktor Yanukovych, the current president, from power. Tymoshenko
herself became prime minister in 2007, but then lost in 2010 election
to Yanukovych.

Yanukovych got his revenge in 2011 by sending Tymoshenko to jail on
charges that many consider to be trumped up. The European Union has
been demanding that Tymoshenko be freed, and now the parliament has
agreed. However, there's no timetable for freeing her.

She's developed back problems in jail, so it's not clear whether she
capable of entering politics again, but if she did, and she joined the
opposition against Yanukovych, then watching those two fight it out
would be quite a spectacle. AP and AFP

****
**** Venezuela and other countries increasingly block press freedom
****


On Thursday, Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro announced that he
would expel CNN if it dod not "rectify" its coverage of
anti-government protests, saying that "They [CNN] want to show the
world that there is a civil war in Venezuela."

On Friday, Maduro carried out his threat, notifying seven journalists
for CNN International and CNN en Español that their press credentials
had been denied or revoked, and that they should book flights back
home. So far, CNN International and CNN en Español continue to
broadcast in Venezuela.

Increasingly, countries around the world are taking legal measures to
restrict press freedom when the press doesn't support the government.
Besides Venezuela, examples are:

  • Egypt has declared the Muslim Brotherhood to be a "terrorist
    organization," and has arrested 20 journalists from al-Jazeera who
    have been covering the news in Egypt, accusing them of terrorism for
    their reports on MB. The arrests include four foreigners, an
    Australian, two Britons and one Dutch, accusing them of "airing false
    news" to "undermine the state's status and disrupt public security."
    Al-Jazeera has called the charges absurd.
  • Russian officials are becoming increasingly panicked over the
    chaos in Ukraine, fearing that similar anti-government protests could
    take place in Moscow. Russia has already shut down one popular cable
    channel for taking occasional anti-Putin positions, and is now
    threatening another one.
  • In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
    in the Obama administration proposed a new program, "Multi-Market
    Study of Critical Information Needs," which would place government
    monitors in the newsrooms of TV networks, "news and talk-radio
    stations," and newspaper companies across the United States. Both
    liberal and conservative groups expressed outrage, and the
    administration was forced to back down, at least for the time being.
    The administration has frequently sought to use its power to
    intimidate Fox News Channel, and has even threatened Fox's White House
    reporter James Rosen with criminal charges, which were later
    dropped.


Other countries, like China and Iran, have strict controls on all
media, most of which is state-owned. CNN and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Jamestown and Washington Times



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Kiev, Viktor Yanukovych,
Yulia Tymoshenko, Poland, France, Germany,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, CNN,
Egypt, al-Jazeera, Russia, Fox News Channel

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Post#1125 at 02-22-2014 12:06 AM by Ragnarök_62 [at Oklahoma joined Nov 2006 #posts 5,511]
---
02-22-2014, 12:06 AM #1125
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
That's a pretty good column. Why don't you do one very day?
OK


Venuezla unrest gets mighty yawn treatment from major international media outlets.


The Game Changed in Venezuela Last Night – and the International Media Is Asleep At the Switch

Francisco Toro / 1 day ago
San Cristobal on Tuesday night

Dear International Editor:
Listen and understand. The game changed in Venezuela last night. What had been a slow-motion unravelling that had stretched out over many years went kinetic all of a sudden.
What we have this morning is no longer the Venezuela story you thought you understood.
Throughout last night, panicked people told their stories of state-sponsored paramilitaries on motorcycles roaming middle class neighborhoods, shooting at people and storming into apartment buildings, shooting at anyone who seemed like he might be protesting.
People continue to be arrested merely for protesting, and a long established local Human Rights NGO makes an urgent plea for an investigation into widespread reports of torture of detainees. There are now dozens of serious human right abuses: National Guardsmen shooting tear gas canisters directly into residential buildings. We have videos of soldiers shooting civilians on the street.
And that’s just what came out in real time, over Twitter and YouTube, before any real investigation is carried out. Online media is next, a city of 645,000 inhabitants has been taken off the internet amid mounting repression, and this blog itself has been the object of a Facebook “block” campaign.
What we saw were not “street clashes”, what we saw is a state-hatched offensive to suppress and terrorize its opponents.
Here at Caracas Chronicles we’re doing what it can to document the crisis, but there’s only so much one tiny, zero-budget blog can do.
After the major crackdown on the streets of large (and small) Venezuelan cities last night, I expected some kind of response in the major international news outlets this morning. I understand that with an even bigger and more photogenic freakout ongoing in an even more strategically important country, we weren’t going to be front-page-above-the-fold, but I’m staggered this morning to wake up, scan the press and find…
Nothing.
As of 11 a.m. this morning, the New York Times World Section has…nothing.





New York Times - nothing to see here, more along









Obviously, what is going on here is that what passes for "news organizations" is they've degenerated into nothing more than a gaggle of group thinkers. If there's a hot news item, in say Ukraine, they fail to look to see if other important developments are occuring elsewhere. The phenomena has pretty much taken over other MSM as well. If one bothers to look at cable channels, all one finds is reality TeeVee, fucking paid programming, and reruns. The concentration of media sources has sucked the airwaves dry of any originality or hard work. All we have now is a desert of nonsense.

Story source here : http://caracaschronicles.com/2014/02...-game-changed/


================================================== ======================

Deflationary fears haunt France.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...flation-shock/

...
This forces these countries to go into even steeper wage deflation to narrow the gap, and that in turn causes debt dynamics to spin out of control as the denominator effect does its worst.
There is a technical solution to this. It is called QE. The European Central Bank can lift the entire EMU system off the reefs by launching a monetary blitz to meet its own M3 growth target of 4.5pc.
Unfortunately, the German constitutional court has just raised the political bar for QE to such a high level that the ECB will have to wait until the shock hits before reacting, and by then it will be too late.
Contrary to widespread belief, there is no treaty prohibition against QE. Mario Draghi has said explicitly that it is "not illegal" and remains an option in extremis.
Maastricht prohibits the financing of budgets but not open market operations (QE) needed to maintain monetary stability.
The alleged constraint is entirely political and ideological, and driven by fear that German Eurosceptics will fight it in the courts.
So we have an impasse. What now happens if the damp kindling wood of eurozone recovery fails yet again? It has Japanisation written all over it.

Actually, QE will do nothing of the sort. Japan is full bore on QE, as is the US, but it's a solution looking for some sort of problem. In the US, QE has done nothing but increase wealth inequality and thus enhanced, rather than reduced systemic frailty. So "Japanification" will occur QE or no QE.

================================================== ==========================
On a far more delightful note, we're perhaps at the cusp of the destruction of the banking sector. Technology has rendered it redundant as follows:

Why Banks Are Doomed: Technology and Risk
February 21, 2014

It's not just that banks are no longer needed--they pose a needless and potentially catastrophic risk to the nation. To understand why, we need to understand the key characteristics of risk.
The entire banking sector is based on two illusions:
1. Thanks to modern portfolio management, bank debt is now riskless.
2. Technology only enhances banks' tools to skim profits; it does not undermine thefundamental role of banks.
The global financial meltdown of 2008-09 definitively proved riskless bank debtis an illusion. If you want to understand why risk cannot eliminated, please read Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)Behavior of Markets.
Technology does not just enable high-frequency trading; it enables capital andborrowers to bypass banks entirely. I addressed this yesterday inBanks Are Obsolete: The Entire Parasitic Sector Can Be Eliminated.
Unfortunately for banks, higher education, buggy whip manufacturers, etc.,monopoly and propaganda are no match for technology. Just because a system worked in the past in a specific set of technological constraints does not meanit continues to be a practical solution when those technological constraints dissolve.
The current banking system is essentially based on two 19th century legacies.In that bygone era, banks were a repository of accounting expertise (keeping track ofmultitudes of accounts, interest, etc.) and risk assessment/management expertise(choosing the lowest-risk borrowers).
Both of these functions are now automated. The funny thing about technology is thatthose threatened by fundamental improvements in technology attempt to harness it to save their industryfrom extinction. For example, overpriced colleges now charge thousands of dollarsfor nearly costless massively open online courses (MOOCs) because they retain a monopolyon accreditation (diplomas). Once students are accredited directly--an advancement enabledby technology--colleges' monopoly disappears and so does their raison d'etre.
The same is true of banks. Now that accounting and risk assessment are automated, andborrowers and owners of capital can exchange funds in transparent digital marketplaces, there is no need for banks. But according to banks, only they have the expertise tocreate riskless debt.
It's not just that banks are no longer needed--they pose a needless and potentiallycatastrophic risk to the nation. To understand why, we need to understand the keycharacteristics of risk.
Moral hazard is what happens when people who make bad decisions suffer noconsequences. Once decision-makers offload consequence onto others, they are free to make increasingly risky bets, knowing that they will personally suffer no losses ifthe bets go bad.
The current banking system is defined by moral hazard. "Too big to fail" alsomeans "too big to jail:" no matter how criminal or risky the bank managements' decisions,the decision-makers not only suffered no consequences, they walked away from the smoulderingruins with tens of millions of dollars in personal wealth.
Absent any consequence, the system created perverse incentives to pyramid risky betsand derivatives to increase profits--a substantial share of which flowed directlyinto the personal accounts of the managers.
The perfection of moral hazard in the current banking system can be illustrated bywhat happened to the last CEO of Lehman Brother, Richard Fuld: he walked away fromthe wreckage with $222 million. This is not an outlier; it is the direct resultof a system based on moral hazard, too-big-to-jail and perverse incentives to increasesystemic risk for personal gain.
And who picked up all the losses? The American taxpayer. Privatize profits,socialize losses: that's the heart of moral hazard.
Concentrating the ability to leverage stupendous systemic bets in a few hands leadsto a concentration of risk. Just before America's financial sector imploded, bankshad pyramided $2.5 trillion in dodgy mortgages into derivatives and exotic financialinstruments with a face value of $35 trillion--14 times the underlying collateral andmore than double the size of the U.S. economy.
In a web-enabled transparent exchange of borrowers bidding for capital, the riskis intrinsically dispersed over millions of participants. Not only is riskdispersed, but the consequences of bad decisions and bad bets fall solely to those whomade the decision and the bet. This is the foundation of a sound, stable, fair financialsystem.
In a transparent marketplace of millions of participants, a handful of participantswill be unable to acquire enough profit to capture the political process. The presentbanking system is not just a financial threat to the nation, it is a political threatbecause its outsized profits enable bankers to capture the regulatory and governancemachinery.

chart courtesy of Market Daily Briefing
The problem with concentrating leverage and moral hazard is that risk is alsoconcentrated. And when risk is concentrated rather than dispersed, it inevitably breaks outof the "riskless" corral.This is the foundation of my aphorism: Central planning perfects the power of threats to bypass the system's defenses.
We can understand this dynamic with an analogy to bacteria and antibiotics.By attempting to eliminate the risk of infection by flooding the system with antibiotics,central planning actually perfects the search for bacteria that are immune to theantibiotics. These few bacteria will bypass the system's defenses and destroy thesystem from within.
The banking/financial sector claims to be eliminating risk, but what it's actually doingis perfecting the threats that will destroy the system from within. Another way tounderstand this is to look at what happened to home mortgages in the runup to themeltdown of 2008: the "safest" part of the financial sector ended up triggeringthe collapse of the entire pyramid of risk.
Once we concentrate risk and impose perverse incentives and moral hazard as the foundationsof our financial/banking system, then we guarantee the risk will explode out ofwhatever sector is considered "safe."
Once you eliminate the "risk" of weak bacteria, you perfect the threat that will kill the host.
The banking sector cannot be reformed, for its very nature is to concentrate systemic riskand moral hazard into breeding grounds of systemic collapse. The only way to eliminate the threat posed by banks is to eliminate the banks and replace them with transparent exchanges where borrowers andowners of capital openly bid for yield (interest rates) and capital.
Bankers (and their fellow financial parasites) will claim they are essential and the nation willcollapse without them. But this is precisely opposite of reality: the very existenceof banks threatens the nation and democracy.
One last happy thought: technology cannot be put back in the bottle. The financial/bankingsector wants to use technology to increase its middleman skim, but the technology that is already out of the bottle will dismantle the sector as a function of whattechnology enables: faster, better, cheaper, with greater transparency, fairness andthe proper distribution of risk.
There may well be a place for credit unions and community banks in the spectrum ofexchanges, but these localized, decentralized enterprises would be unable toamass dangerous concentrations of risk and political influence in a truly transparentand decentralized system of exchanges.

Source: http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html?ref=patrick.net

The takaway from this is that TBTF are today's dinosaurs. They narrowly escaped the first comet of 2008, but since they are now larger than ever, that renders them more at risk of doom since they may become to big to BAIL. Also, of note, the more skim involved the more incentived folks are to bypass the skimmers entirely.
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Keywords: Venezuela, clueless MSM, unrest, crackdown, EU, QE, deflation, France, TBTF, dinosaur institutions, systemic risk, technology [creative destruction] , clueless big banks.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP

There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
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