Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Russia and China both have territorial disputes with Japan left over
from World War II, which was probably the reason for the exercise.
But Russia and Japan are resolving their differences, and becoming
allies, while China and Japan are increasing their differences, and
becoming increasingly inimical.

John

Russia / China / Russo-Japanese Rapprochement Moves Forward
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 11 Issue: 35
February 24, 2014 04:37 PM Age: 22 min
By: Stephen Blank

Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe in Sochi, February 8 (Source: EPA)

Despite the mounting ferocity of Sino-Japanese rhetoric, China’s
partner Russia is moving forward on normalizing its ties with
Japan. Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Russian
President Vladimir Putin at Sochi on February 8, and Putin has
accepted an invitation to visit Tokyo in May
(http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/6627; Kyodo World Service, January
28). Moreover, on Friday, January 31, in Tokyo, Russia and Japan
officially began the first round of talks on a bilateral peace treaty
to formally close the World War II chapter of their relationship. The
Tokyo meeting included delegations led by Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Igor Morgulov and his Japanese counterpart, Shinsuke
Sugiyama, and their consultations focused on the historical aspect of
the two countries’ unresolved conflict. As they continue over the
following months, both sides pledge that these negotiations will
include a serious discussion of the disputed Kurile Islands as well
(RIA Novosti, January 31).

...

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ed...26dcb02456e3ae

*** 1-Mar-14 World View -- Russian troops in Ukraine raise fear of 'Abkhazia scenario'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian troops in Ukraine raise fear of 'Abkhazia scenario'
• Ukraine's president invokes the 1994 'Budapest Memorandum'
• Burma accuses Doctors without Borders of bias towards Rohingyas

****
**** Russian troops in Ukraine raise fear of 'Abkhazia scenario'
****

With Russian warplanes and over 2,000 Russian troops now invading
Ukraine, Ukraine's acting head of state, Oleksandr Turchynov, said:

<QUOTE>"They're playing the Abkhazia scenario. ...

I am personally addressing President Putin to stop the provocation
and call back the military from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,
and work exclusively within the framework of the signed
agreements."<END QUOTE>

The "Abkhazia scenario" refers to Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia,
after which Russia annexed two of Georgia's provinces, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Indeed, Russia appears to be following exactly the
same pattern that it followed prior to the Georgia invasion.

President Barack Obama made a totally meaningless televised statement
late Friday afternoon:

<QUOTE>"However, we are now deeply concerned by reports of
military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of
Ukraine. Russia has a historic relationship with Ukraine,
including cultural and economic ties, and a military facility in
Crimea, but any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity would be deeply destabilizing, which is not in the
interest of Ukraine, Russia, or Europe.

It would represent a profound interference in matters that must be
determined by the Ukrainian people. It would be a clear violation
of Russia’s commitment to respect the independence and sovereignty
and borders of Ukraine, and of international laws. And just days
after the world came to Russia for the Olympic Games, it would
invite the condemnation of nations around the world. And indeed,
the United States will stand with the international community in
affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention
in Ukraine."<END QUOTE>

It's fair to say that Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who is guilty
of war crimes every day by shipping arms to Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad who's using them for crimes against humanity against his own
people, could not care less that Obama is "deeply concerned" or that
Russia might be committing "a clear violation" of international laws.
Putin may well also believe that he's a better judge than Obama of
what is and is not "deeply destabilizing." However, President Obama
didn't take the opportunity to set any more red lines. Politico

****
**** Ukraine's president invokes the 1994 'Budapest Memorandum'
****

At the same time that Ukraine's acting head of state, Oleksandr
Turchynov, accused Russia of "playing the Abkhazia scenario," he also
alluded to a 1994 treaty:

<QUOTE>"I also remind that the United States, Russia and
Great Britain are also guarantors of the national security of
Ukraine. ...

Because of Verkhovna Rada's [the parliament's] and my personal
appeal, the United Nations Security Council is having a session
right now. The whole civilized world supports Ukraine.

We demand to stop the provocation, we demand to normalize the
situation. We're sure that Ukraine will preserve its territory,
Ukraine will defend its independence and any attempts of
annexation, intrusion will have very serious
consequences."<END QUOTE>

The reason that the United States, Russia and Great Britain are also
guarantors of the national security of Ukraine is because they all
signed the 1994 "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances."

This memorandum was signed shortly after the breakup of the Soviet
Union. The breakup left a collection of Soviet nuclear weapons in
Ukraine, and there was international concern about the proliferation
of nuclear weapons. Under the memorandum, Ukraine promised to remove
all Soviet-era nuclear weapons from its territory, and send them back
to Russia. In return, Russia and the Western signatory countries
essentially consecrated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of
Ukraine as an independent state.

Turchynov's point is that this agreement is now being violated.

Here's a philosophical question: Do treaties and memoranda between
nations ever mean anything? Or are they just political appliances to
be discarded by one side or the other as soon as they become
inconvenient? RFERL

****
**** Burma accuses Doctors without Borders of bias towards Rohingyas
****

The government of Burma (Myanmar) has ordered the humanitarian agency
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors Without Borders) to cease
operations, because of bias towards Rohingyas. The context is that in
the last three years, large mobs of Buddhists have massacred entire
neighborhoods of Muslims in various regions of the country,
mutilating, raping and killing hundreds, and displacing thousands from
their homes. ( "3-Oct-13 World View -- Buddhist violence against Muslims in Burma/Myanmar continues to spread"
)

The massacres originally targeted Muslim Rohingyas in Burma's Rakhine
State in 2012, near the border with Bangladesh. There have been
recurrences, most recently in January, when Buddhists are alleged to
have massacred Rohingyas, killing 48. Burmese authorities have been
denying that there's any problem at all, and they particularly denied
that any massacre occurred in January. However, MSF confirmed that
their medics had treated 22 patients near the site of the alleged
attack, infuriating Burmese officials. This led to the demand that
MSF cease operations, presumably so that further massacres can occur
without witnesses.

Since the violence erupted in June 2012, MSF has provided care in
northern Rakhine, home to more than 1 million Rohingya, and they are
also present in more than a dozen camps for the displaced people
elsewhere in the state. For many of the sickest patients, the
organization offers the best and sometimes only care, because
travelling outside the camps for treatment in local Buddhist-run
hospitals can be dangerous and expensive.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these kinds of ethnic
hatreds often spring up during generational Crisis eras, and they
eventually lead for a massive crisis war.

Nonetheless, some analysts try to find root causes for these genocidal
urges. According to one analyst, Burmese Buddhists have a "siege
mentality" stemming from a scripturally unsupported but widely
believed "prophecy" that Buddhism will disappear 5000 years after the
Buddha’s passing. As 1956 is considered the halfway point, the belief
is that Buddhism is now declining irreversibly.

In addition, the "siege mentality" is further supported among Burmese
Buddhists from being surround by large, populous countries -- China,
India, Bangladesh -- with a combined population of over 2.7 billion,
with a large-scale influx of migrant workers from all of these
countries. So between the disappearance "prophecy" and being
encircled by huge foreign populations, it takes little imagination to
construct a narrative where these three populous countries are
scheming to swallow up the country through demographic pressure.
AP and BBC and RSIS



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine,
Oleksandr Turchynov, Abkhazia, Georgia,
South Ossetia, Vladimir Putin, Budapest Memorandum,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors Without Borders,
Burma, Myanmar, Buddhists, Rohingyas, Muslims

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

***
*** Ukraine: A Deep State Analysis (February 27, 2014)
***


Some preliminary thoughts on a complex situation. It doesn't take any special insight into the situation in Ukraine toconclude that no one narrative illuminates all the dynamics. Various contesting Grand Narratives have emerged in the media--neofascist coup,rampant corruption, east versus west, to name a few--but these only describea few of the regional fault lines and complexities.
At my request, correspondent A.C. offered a preliminary Deep State analysis of the situation. A.C.'s perspective is informed by decades of experience in Eastern Europe,Russia and the Baltic region.
I recently discussed the Deep State in The Dollar and the Deep State, and offered this definition by Mike Lofgren:
The term “Deep State” was coined in Turkey and is said to be a system composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, military, security, judiciary and organized crime.
The Deep State is a hybrid association of elements of government and parts of top-level finance and industry that is effectively able to govern the nation without reference to the consent of the governed as expressed through the formal political process.
I describe the U.S. Deep State as the National Security State [MIC] which enables a vast Imperial structure that incorporates hard and soft power--military, diplomatic, intelligence, finance, commercial, energy, media, higher education--in a system of global domination and influence.
One key feature of the Deep State everywhere is that it makes decisions behind closed doors and the surface government simply ratifies and implements the decisions. I have covered various aspects of geopolitics and the Deep State for years, for example:
The Great Game: Geopolitics and Oil (October 19, 2010)
The Banality of Evil and Imperial Over-Reach (December 14, 2010)
Speaking of Iraq--let's start with the obvious Deep State agenda in Ukraine: energy. Nations with a strategic "vital interest" in the region's energy mix include Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Germany(and the rest of the Europen Union, which currently depends on natural gas piped throughUkraine from Russia), Romania and (of course) the United States, which maintains a strategic interest in every square meter of the planet (including the seas and ice caps).
It's not much of a stretch to say that Russia's fiscal health and geopolitical influence are based on hydrocarbons--specifically gas and oil delivered to other nations for cash and/or political favors.
The maturation of fracking technologies have led to the exploration of western Ukraine, Poland and Romania by super-major oil companies such as Chevron: Where We Operate - Chevron
Chevron holds four shale concessions in Poland—Frampol, Grabowiec, Krasnik and Zwierzyniec—which total approximately one million acres. In the Grabowiec concession, drilling of the first well was completed in March 2012, followed by a diagnostic fracture integrity test in December 2012. A first well also was drilled in the Frampol concession in 2012. In the Zwierzyniec concession, drilling began in December 2012. Continued exploration drilling is planned for 2013.Chevron holds more than 2 million acres in Romania, including a 1.6-million-acre concession in the Barlad Shale. We plan to drill an exploration well in 2013. We hold three additional concession agreements covering 670,000 acres in southeast Romania. Acquisition of 2-D seismic data across these concessions is expected to begin in 2013.
Chevron successfully bid for the right to exclusively negotiate with the government of Ukraine for the Oleska Block. The company is expected to operate and hold a 50 percent interest in the 1.6 million-acre concession.

Ukraine holds promise for shale gas despite uncertainty
The development of gas fields in these regions poses a direct competitive threat to the near-monopoly currently held by the Russian national oil company, Gazprom.This sets up a scramble for energy, where western Ukraine, Poland,Romania and the EU have powerful financial incentives to develop energy sources outside of Russian control, while Russia has an incentive to secure energy resources and assets in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
Here is A.C.'s outline of some of the key dynamics:

This gas pipeline map graphically illustrates Gazprom's real problem. A major competing gas field is appearing literally underneath a major existing east-west gas pipeline running into central Europe. Drill wells and immediately begin selling to Germany and other existing Gazprom customers.And also undercut Gazprom's pricing by a touch.The extent to which US-based multinational oil and gas firms are directly displacing Russian enterprises in supplying the EU is remarkable. Chevron and Exxon are very prominent in the emerging offshore and shale plays.
I think the imminent threat of Ukrainian shale gas development is a factor in forcing Putin's hand over the EU trade deal. Putin's regional Great Power ambitions are backed entirely by strong arm hydrocarbon diplomacy. Putin's domestic political position equally rests on stable and elevated hydrocarbon prices to fund the state budget.
He has no revolutionary ideology with mass appeal in religion, politics or economics. Nor does he possess a large internationally recognized sphere of dominance like Stalin obtained at Yalta in 1945.
Nor does he have a large land army with which to intimidate and subdue neighboring states. He's only managed to convert a portion of the shrunken Army to "kontraktniki" (well-paid professional volunteers). These guys are the ones suppressing the Muslim insurgents in the Caucasus. If Putin attempted to openly intervene in the Ukraine with the available and virtually untrained conscript military forces it would produce a political explosion in Russia's own internal politics. This is addition to the surge of Ukrainian nationalist opposition that would ensue.
Putin's risk arises not just from the example being set for Russian domestic opponents. If Putin is seen to be responsible for alienating and finally "losing" the Ukraine he'll find himself in trouble with the Russian Deep State.
What's Happening in Kiev Right Now Is Vladimir Putin's Worst Nightmare(New Republic)
Will Ukraine Break Apart (New Yorker)
As this piece notes, modern Ukraine in its present form is an artifact of the 1945 Yalta Conference and the post World War II order. Just like Yugoslavia. Unfortunately for all concerned, this latent instability is now compounded by a happenstance of geology and the recent maturation of the technology for exploiting shale gas reserves. Adjoining neighbors like Poland now have motives that were missing when the Ukraine was a poor and primarily agrarian land.
The gas pipeline map shows the major incentives and rational objectives of a partition strategy from Putin's perspective. He can't stop development in Polish Lublin or near Lviv. He at least needs to keep control of infrastructure in the eastern Ukraine. Offshore Black Sea oil and gas tract concessions are also at stake.

This suggests that the interests of all parties align in supporting a de facto partition rather than a civil war in Ukraine in which neither side could establish stable, long-term control of the other.
I asked A.C. for his view of the U.S. Deep State's goals in the region.
The short two-part answer is:
1. Frustrate Moscow's ambitions to dominate Eurasia. The operative strategic analyses employed are MacKinder's World-Island Theory as subsequently and heavily modified by modern hydro-carbon fuel economics: The Geographical Pivot of History.
2. Continue to improve the EU's Central European position with respect to its hydrocarbon fuel supplies. The Neocons were already deeply worried about the growth of NATO dependence on Gazprom and the eastern pipelines in the mid-1980s. This has been on their radar for decades.
The overall objective is to destroy Putin's capacity to set marginal natural gas prices in Europe. If pipelines under the Baltic and Black Seas are feasible so are pipelines under the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa to France, and from the eastern Mediterranean and Aegean to Greece and southeastern Europe. Add some LPG terminals and European shale gas operations and this is achieved.
There may be a third goal in trying to set an example for domestic Russian opponents, which exist in great numbers. I think it's more likely the Russian Federation's Deep State will find another leader first.

From:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb14/Ukraine2-14.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This story dovetails nicely with the prior story of Kerry's angst over defence cuts. For there lies a central problem with empires. As time passes, internal contradictions pile up. For the US, decades of deindustrialization, flatlined wages, and growing weath disparity. While the [MIC] may wish to control events in Ukraine, the ability to do so is undermined by ever increasing deficits. compromised industrial base, and other facets of the "real economy". The MIC is like a cancer. Its demand for resources eventually kill the host.

***
*** Disgusting Teen socipath tosses bulldog puppy over bridge in Oklahoma
***
http://kfor.com/2014/02/28/warning-o...rfaces-online/

UPDATE: Choctaw County Sheriff Terry Park said deputies have arrested a 16-year-old Boswell boy accused of recording a heinous act of animal abuse.
That teen is facing one count of animal cruelty.
Sheriff Park said deputies are in contact with the 18-year-old Atoka teen accused of throwing the bulldog off the bridge in the video.
He said deputies are expecting to question the Atoka teen Friday afternoon.
Neither of the teens’ names have been released.
A teen, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, claims to know the teen in the video and said he threw the bulldog over the bridge because “it wouldn’t catch hogs so it was useless.”
According to Sheriff Park, the bulldog is recovering and doing well at an Atoka veterinary hospital.
He said he did not know if the dog would be up for adoption soon or not.
BOSWELL, Okla. - Authorities are investigating a heinous case of animal abuse in Choctaw County after finding video of the crime on a social media site.
The Instagram video shows a teen tossing a puppy from a bridge in Boswell, Oklahoma.
It has since been removed and the user account where it was posted, “theycallmeh_karis,” has been deleted.
The good news is, the dog somehow survived and the Choctaw County Sheriff’s Department said it is in good condition at an Atoka veterinary hospital.

Obviously, the good news is the puppy survived the incident in good shape. However, it's clear the perpetrator[s] thought their actions were "cute" enough to post on social media. What is clear is this is how sociopaths usually start out. First , it's animals, then they later "graduate" to doing this stuff to people. So, what to do with these worthless pieces of biomass? Well, given that they've proven themselves to be sociopaths, the best thing to do is just locked them away ... permanantly. If the socipath is a teen, too bad. Just send them to super-max and let them rot. Let it be known, there's little difference between animal abusers and the likes of Saddam and Assad. Saddam and Assad just happened to graduate to torturing and maiming people. Now of course if I could do things, then an ounce of prevention would be in order. I'd prefer a one time stint in front of a firing squad.


***
*** Smart Money exits housing rental market, dumb money enters.
***
Wolf Richter: The Smart Money Quietly Abandons The Housing Market

Posted on February 27, 2014 by Yves Smith Yves here. Some savvy investors were warning the single family home rental market was overheated nearly a year ago. Carrington, one of the early entrants, said it had pulled back last May, largely because “stupid money” had flooded the market.
In a recent post, readers confirmed that private equity investors are, not surprisingly, taking a very short-sighted posture towards their investments in single-family homes. It’s not uncommon for them to list well above-market rent rates and include unrealistically low levels of reinvestment in their projections. [Sounds like Fraud] But sweating an asset works only if you’ve got an exit strategy. As we indicated, the cleanest and simplest one, that of doing an IPO of the operating company, appears to no longer be viable, thanks to the Fed’s taper. A few deals got launched, then one was pulled, as it seems the PE landlords can’t get the pricing they want via this route. Another that Wall Street was very keen to establish was that of securtizing the rental stream (a prospect your truly regards with horror, since if mortgage servicers were terrible, I shudder to think what the property management will be like in these deals). But with Blackstone’s first rental securitization showing a nearly 8% fall in rental income shortly after it was launched, the bloom may be off that rose as well.
By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Testosterone Pit.
In real estate, national averages paper over the gritty details on the ground and are a crummy, often contradictory indicator as to what is happening in specific metro areas. When a new trend starts or when a reversal takes place in some locations, it’s watered down by data from other unaffected locations to form the overall averages. But even with this caveat, a national average suddenly sounded an alarm for the housing market: the smart money has started to bail out.
The smart money entered the housing market gingerly in 2011 then piled in helter-skelter over the next two years, gobbling up vacant single-family homes out of foreclosure. The forays were funded by Wall Street, awash in the Fed’s crazy-money. The smart-money operators trained their guns on specific markets, such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, and bought homes by the thousands that they tried to rent out. Then they spread their campaigns to other cities.
The tally has reached 200,000 single-family vacant homes for which they’re now trying to find tenants. In the process, mega-landlords have emerged. On top of the heap: Invitation Homes, a unit of private-equity giant Blackstone Group, and American Homes 4 Rent, a highly leveraged REIT that went public last August.
As in the heyday before the financial crisis, their smartest minds are now feverishly at work trying to figure out how to shuffle risks and future losses off to yield-desperate investors who’ve been driven to near-insanity by the Fed’s relentless repression of interest rates. So Blackstone and American Homes 4 Rent have started selling synthetic structured securities that are backed, not by mortgages, like the toxic waste before the financial crisis, but by something even classier, rental payments – based on the rickety hope that these single-family homes will stay rented out. Wall Street is already jubilating: the market for this type of synthetic monster is estimated to be $1.5 trillion [read.... The Exquisitely Reengineered Frankenstein Housing Monster].
But now the party appears to be running out of booze. This frantic institutional buying has driven up home prices – in some areas above the levels of the prior bubble. Trying to make money by buying these homes at inflated prices and renting them out into a tough job market where strung-out consumers with declining real wages have trouble making ends meet has become a precarious business model.
In some of the formerly hottest metro areas, purchases by large institutional investors – those having bought at least 10 properties over the past 12 months – plunged in January from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac’s Residential & Foreclosure Sales Report: in Jacksonville, Florida, by 21%; in Tampa, by 48%; in Tucson, 59%; Memphis, 64%; in Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, by 70%!
Institutional purchases hit the skids in over three-quarters of the 101 metro areas that RealtyTrac analyzed, their share dropping to 5.2% overall, from 7.9% in December, and from 8.2% in January 2013. It was the lowest monthly share since March 2012, at the infancy of this whole bonanza.

But 23 of the 101 metro areas had year-over-year gains, some of them late starters. In Atlanta, institutional purchases rose 9% to where a quarter of all homes were purchased by institutional investors. That’s how the Fed has “fixed” the housing market. In Austin, the institutional share soared by a mind-boggling 162% to reach nearly a fifth of all purchases. In Denver, their share rose 21%, in Dallas 30%.
And in Cincinnati 83%. “Big hedge fund investors,” explained Michael Mahon, Executive Vice President at HER Realtors, which covers the area. “I think that’s contributing to the lower levels of inventory available on the market,” he added, seeing how these vacant homes have been pushed from the much scrutinized for-sale listings to the ignored for-rent listings.
“Many have anticipated that the large institutional investors backed by private equity would start winding down their purchases of homes to rent, and the January sales numbers provide early evidence this is happening,” said RealtyTrac VP Daren Blomquist. “It’s unlikely that this pullback in purchasing is weather-related given that there were increases in the institutional investor share of purchases in colder-weather markets such as Denver and Cincinnati, even while many warmer-weather markets in Florida and Arizona saw substantial decreases in the share of institutional investors from a year ago.”
So forget the by now ubiquitous all-encompassing polar-vortex explanation. Which begs the question: if not institutional investors, who the heck is going to buy these homes at these prices?
Existing homeowners who buy a home and sell their old home don’t count. They’re just swapping homes, not creating demand. But foreigners are buying in certain cities – Chinese and Argentine buyers and others who want to deposit their wealth while they still can in a reasonably safe place. So they’re creating demand.
But the most powerful economic force in the housing market, first-time buyers? Normally, they’d swarm all over these homes and create real and lasting demand and make the housing market grow. But prices have soared, and mortgage rates have crept up, and young people are teetering under piles of student loans, and so that economic force has collapsed to record low levels. Read….Without Them, The Housing ‘Recovery’ Remains A Sham

OK, so how many bubbles do we have to endure before folks get a clue? Like all prior bubbles, fundamentals eventually take hold and the bubble pops. As per above, it appears Wall Street is trying to pawn this latest rendition of toxic waste off on unsuspecting "investors" or I should say pigeons. In any event, you've read it here. Don't buy anything from Blackstone or Homes 4 Rent. If you do, then you're "dumb money". The income stream as mentioned above is shakey rental income and the "assets" - the houses were bought at inflated prices - AGAIN. Let's all say it together, there is no housing recovery and there will be no housing recovery until house prices fall to where they match income and not some imaginary meme. Boomers are done with houses and are downsizing, Xers? In a prior post here, they're busy "going Galt" via "The New Austerity". If some house costs too much, they won't be there. Millies? Nope, not there either. They already have mortgage sized student loan debt. As another dovetail with the GenX post, here's another example of how some upcoming tri-generational demand destruction will wreak havoc on government finance. We can expect house prices to fall, a crash in new houses built and the fees derived thereof, and folks taking capital losses.




Keys Ukraine, Deep State[MIC], Gazprom, Frakking, Chevron, Poland, Romania,Vladimire Putin,internal contradictions Sociopaths, animal cruelty, sociopath mitigation strategies. Housing Bubble II, Sham financial instruments based on rental income, Blackstone,Homes 4 Rent, "smart money", "dumb money", Boomers, Xers, Millies

*** 2-Mar-14 World View -- Knife-wielding mob of probable Xinjiang terrorists kill 28 in southern China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions escalate between Ukraine and Russia
• The Charge of the Light Brigade into the Valley of Death
• Knife-wielding mob of probable Xinjiang terrorists kill 28 in southern China
• Pakistan's Taliban announce one-month cease-fire

****
**** Tensions escalate between Ukraine and Russia
****


Russian troops in Crimea on Saturday (AP)

On Friday, Russia said that the massing of Russian troops on Ukraine's
border had nothing to do with the unrest in Ukraine. But on Saturday,
Russia's president demanded and got approval from Russia's parliament
for those troops to invade Ukraine.

In response, Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov announced
that he put the country's armed forces on the highest alert status,
because of the threat of "potential aggression" by the Russians.

Now analysts are trying to figure out what the Russians are going to
do next. Few believe that Russia will try to take control of the
entire country militarily, since since after they won they'd have to
deal with a nasty, continuing insurgency by ethnic Ukrainians. Some
suggested that Russia might take Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Others
suggested that Russia might try to force the interim government in
Kiev to accept a unity government where Russia's interests would be
protected.

So far, the Kiev government has refused to fall into Russia's trap.
Russia is apparently trying by any means possible to provoke violence
against ethnic Russians in Ukraine, so that he can order a full-scale
invasion of Ukraine "to protect Russian interests." AP

****
**** The Charge of the Light Brigade into the Valley of Death
****

Few Americans know anything about World War I except the name, and
even fewer have ever heard of the Crimean War. From the point of view
of Generational Dynamics, these wars in America's non-crisis eras,
which is why they're so poorly remembered. Those two wars were
generational crisis wars for Russia and Turkey, where they're VERY
well remembered.

Britain fought in both of them. In The Great War (WW I), the soldiers
fought bravely, but there was a strong anti-war movement. Wilfred
Owen, a 24-year-old soldier, wrote "What passing-bells for these who
die as cattle?" in "Anthem for a Doomed Youth." The British Generals
botched the war so badly that veterans described the entire war as
"Lions led by Donkeys." (See "Politicians commemorate Battle of the Somme, July 1, 1916"
from 2006.)

The Crimea peninsula has been the site of one extremely bloody war
after another for centuries. It's right on the fault line between
Russia and the Orthodox Christian civilization versus Turkey and the
Muslim civilization, as well as on the fault line between various
ethnic groups. Here, and in the Balkans and the Caucasus, many wars
were fought to the death, and the 1850s Crimean War was one of them.

Britain also fought in the Crimean war, on the side of the Turkish
Ottomans, with one battle well-remembered today, the one described by
Alfred Lord Tennyson in his 1855 poem, "The Charge of the Light
Brigade." (When I first read this poem, in school, I thought a "light
brigade" was a brigade of soldiers carrying lanterns. Actually, it's
a lightly armed brigade on horses, with little more than sabers to
fight with.) The Light Brigade was ordered by a British General to
charge their Cossack and Russian opponents, and take away their guns
and cannons. But "someone had blundered," and the Russians used their
guns and cannons to massacre the British soldiers:

• THE CHARGE OF THE LIGHT BRIGADE
  
  Half a league, half a league,
  Half a league onward,
  All in the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
  
  "Forward, the Light Brigade!
  Charge for the guns!" he said:
  Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
  
  "Forward, the Light Brigade!"
  Was there a man dismay'd?
  Not tho' the soldier knew
  Someone had blunder'd:
  
  Their's not to make reply,
  Their's not to reason why,
  Their's but to do and die:
  Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
  
  Cannon to right of them,
  Cannon to left of them,
  Cannon in front of them
  Volley'd and thunder'd;
  
  Storm'd at with shot and shell,
  Boldly they rode and well,
  Into the jaws of Death,
  Into the mouth of Hell
  Rode the six hundred.
  
  Flash'd all their sabres bare,
  Flash'd as they turn'd in air
  Sabring the gunners there,
  Charging an army, while
  All the world wonder'd:
  Plunged in the battery-smoke
  Right thro' the line they broke;
  
  Cossack and Russian
  Reel'd from the sabre-stroke
  Shatter'd and sunder'd.
  Then they rode back, but not
  Not the six hundred.
  
  Cannon to right of them,
  Cannon to left of them,
  Cannon behind them
  Volley'd and thunder'd;
  
  Storm'd at with shot and shell,
  While horse and hero fell,
  They that had fought so well
  Came thro' the jaws of Death,
  Back from the mouth of Hell,
  
  All that was left of them,
  Left of six hundred.
  When can their glory fade ?
  O the wild charge they made!
  
  All the world wonder'd.
  Honor the charge they made!
  Honor the Light Brigade,
  Noble six hundred!

The "Valley of Death" still exists -- it's in Balaclava, right next
door to Sevastopol in Crimea, where Russian soldiers are once again
massing, preparing for what may be just another chapter in a
never-ending series of Crimean Wars.

By the way, modern nursing began during the Crimean War, when British
nurse Florence Nightingale led a team of nurses to treat wounded
soldiers in Turkey. Spark Notes and BBC

****
**** Knife-wielding mob of probable Xinjiang terrorists kill 28 in southern China
****

At least 29 people were killed and 130 wounded late Saturday when a
mob of terrorists used long knives to attack passengers in a crowded
train station in Kunming in southern China. Chinese authorities said
that "evidence at the crime scene showed that the Kunming Railway
Station terrorist attack was carried out by Xinjiang separatist
forces."

Turkic-speaking Muslim Uighurs live northwestern China in Xinjiang
province, which has been a source of activist violence and separatist
demands. China has responded with violent crackdowns, and attempted
to flood the province with Han Chinese transplants, in a failing
attempt to pacify the Uighurs by diluting their population. On
October 29 of last year, Uighur terrorists conducted a deadly car
crash in Beijing's central Tiananmen Square, killing 5 people and
injuring dozens. Saturday's attack was apparently timed to cast a
shadow over the opening on Wednesday of the annual meeting of the
National People's Congress. Xinhua

****
**** Pakistan's Taliban announce one-month cease-fire
****

A Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) spokesman says that the
TTP will observe a one-month cease-fire, in order to allow the "peace
talks" with the government to resume. According to the spokesman, the
senior TTP leadership have instructed all of its splinter groups to
abide by the ceasefire.

The offer comes just four days after Pakistan announced that it was
reversing previous "peace talk" policies. Since then it's been
pounding suspected Taliban handouts, and the army is massing for a
"full-fledged clearing operation" on Taliban terrorists. ( "28-Feb-14 World View -- Pakistan reverses itself, plans large-scale military attack on Taliban"
)

The TTP cease-fire is a standard tactic used by terrorist groups to
gain time to rearm. Now the government has to decide whether to go
ahead with its military plans, or to fall for the tactic. VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin,
Crimea, Oleksandr Turchynov, Balaclava,
Anthem for a Doomed Youth, Wilfred Owen,
The Charge of the Light Brigade, Alfred Lord Tennyson,
Kunming, China, Xinjiang, Uighurs, Tiananmen Square,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban

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*** 3-Mar-14 World View -- Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
• Strategic consequences of Russia's conquest of Crimea
• North Korea fires short-range missiles into the sea

****
**** Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
****


An Orthodox priest holds a crucifix next to armed men in military fatigues blocking access to a Ukrainian border guards base in Crimea on Sunday (AFP)

It appears that Russia has taken control of Crimea without firing a
shot, and is referring to it as the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea,"
presumably with the intention of making it a puppet state of Moscow.

Ukraine's government in Kiev is only a few days old, and seems to be
in disarray. So far, they're avoiding any strong military
overreaction that would provide Russia with an excuse for a further
military invasion, perhaps into eastern Ukraine beyond Crimea.
However, the government warned Sunday it was on the brink of disaster
and called up military reservists to counter Russia's threat to
Ukraine.

Russia has appointed Sergey Aksyonov to prime minister, and on Sunday
he announced:

<QUOTE>"I believe that this day will go down in history of
the Autonomous Republic of Crimea as the day that all law
enforcement agencies were established in the autonomy, We will
prove that the Crimeans are capable of protecting themselves and
ensure the safety and freedom of our citizens. ...

Today the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is formed as an
independent, integral public authority. I am sure that all of us
will prove that we did not just come into power and that we can
give Crimeans what they expect from us.

We will never see 'Maidan' with their black smoke and burned tires
here. I responsibly promise that Crimea by May will be calm,
quiet, friendly. People of all nationalities will live here
happily."<END QUOTE>

This last paragraph is actually pretty funny. Aksyonov has absolutely
no clue whether Crimea will be "calm, quiet and friendly." No
national leader at any time or place in history can be sure of
avoiding widespread anti-government demonstrations that might result
in "black smoke and burned tires." A government can use violence and
torture to suppress demonstrations for a time, but even that doesn't
always work (as we see every day in Syria). Sooner or later the
pressure cooker explodes.

As I've written dozens of times, it's a basic principle of
Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and
events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of
people, and not by politicians. What politicians say or do is
irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of
the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause
nor prevent the great events of history. So Aksyonov's claims are
totally meaningless.

There have been many comparisons of today's situation in Ukraine
to Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia, where Russia annexed two
Georgian provinces in much the same way that Russia is now
annexing Crimea.

But there was something noteworthy about the Georgian war that rarely
gets mentioned. Here's what I wrote in "Moscow Times: 'Russia Adds 2 New Countries to Its Map'"
in 2008:

<QUOTE>"What's become clear in these three weeks is that
there isn't much visceral hatred between Georgians and
Russians. The Georgians are furious that the Russians are
occupying Georgian territory, but there's no genocidal fury
between these two ethnic groups.

What's also become clear, however, is that there is plenty of
genocidal fury between Georgians and Ossetians. These two ethnic
groups really hate each other, and either of them would gladly
exterminate the other."<END QUOTE>

Those relationships turned out to be the deciding factors in what
followed after the war ended. Russia and Georgia, both Orthodox
Christian nations, have gotten along pretty well since then, while
Muslim South Ossetia effective joined North Ossetia to become part of
Russia's North Caucasus provinces. North and South Ossetia get along
well with Chechnya and Dagestan and Russia's other North Caucasus
provinces, even though the Muslim Caucasians as a whole and the ethnic
Russians exhibit mutual vitriolic hatred, almost on a daily basis.

Likewise, the future of Ukraine is going to be determined by the
relationships between the ethnic groups. There have been signs of
hatred between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians at the government
level: The new Kiev government voted to ban Russian as an official
language in the country, while the government in Moscow has been
referring to the Kiev government as "Nazis." But so far, I have not
discerned a great deal of hatred at the level of ordinary Ukrainians
and Russians (though it's early and it may simply not have shown
itself yet).

If there were only ethnic Russians and a few ethnic Ukrainians in
Crimea, then the hopes and dreams of Aksyonov for a "calm, quiet,
friendly" future might actually have a chance. But that's not
what you have.

You have 2 million ethnic Russians, and 300,000 Muslim ethnic Tatars
living in Crimea. Russia's dictator Josef Stalin in 1944 deported
200,000 Tatars from Crimea, where they had lived for centuries, to
central Asia, accusing them of collaborating with the Nazis. It was
only in the 1980s and 1990s that the Tatars returned in large numbers
to Crimea, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union and
Ukraine's independence. The Tatars are scared to death of being under
the control of the Russians again, and so they're aligning themselves
with the government in Kiev. And the references in Moscow to "Nazis"
in Ukraine strike a very deep chord in the Tatar psyche. There is no
way that this relationship is going to be "calm, quiet and friendly."
Russia Today and AFP

****
**** Strategic consequences of Russia's conquest of Crimea
****

One web site reader (BronxZionist) has kindly provided a list of some
of the possible strategic consequences of the Russian conquest of
Crimea:

• Putin won't be satisfied with just the Crimea and will also
  take the Ukrainian portion of the Donbas.
  
• 300,000 Crimean Tatars will become refugees. Or perhaps they will
  just "radicalize" and join the jihad going on in the Caucasus.
  
• 500,000 Ukrainians in Crimea will become refugees, putting a
  burden on Ukraine and the EU at a wonderfully wrong moment.
  
• The above two will be aggravated if Putin seizes the Donbas
  [Ukraine's large easternmost province, bordering on Russia] as well,
  along with the Russians who will be under great pressure to abandon
  homes in Ukraine.
  
• [Russia's president Vladimir] Putin will see there is nothing to
  hinder him in making demands in regards to Transnistria [in Moldova,
  along Ukraine's western border, another breakaway province occupied by
  Russian troops], whether it be recognition of its independence or
  outright annexation. That will of course further degrade the defensive
  situation in the rump of Ukraine.
  
• Putin will see there is nothing to hinder him in whatever other
  demands he wishes to make in expanding his Eurasian Union, effectively
  recreating the Russian Empire. Or is that the Soviet Union?
  
• The U.S. and U.K. will lose considerable diplomatic "face" over
  the Budapest Memorandum, much as the U.K. and France looked stupid and
  found themselves "forced" to declare war after the dissolution of
  Czechoslavakia and declaration of war on Poland in 1938 and 1939.
  
• The fallout from that will be even more severe when it comes to
  getting countries to give up their WMD in exchange for
  "guarantees". That will go down especially well in Syria, which of
  course Putin will be in an even better position to supply.
  
• The EU will lose standing for not bailing Ukraine out.
  
• NATO will lose standing, particularly with the former Warsaw Pact
  countries, and more with the Baltic states who have Russian minorities
  to deal with.
  
• Putin will gain a major victory overall, making it much easier for
  him to promise help to others who see that no one will stand up to
  him.
  
• China will note the utter lack of resolve on the part of the
  U.S. and advance its claims in the South China Sea and the Senkaku
  Islands.

****
**** North Korea fires short-range missiles into the sea
****

North Korea fired two short-range Scud missiles into the sea off its
east coast Monday, with a range of 500 km. This was the second such
launch recently. On Thursday, North Korea fired four Scud missiles
from the same area. According to South Korea's Defense Ministry, the
missile firing are a reaction to the annual South Korean/U.S. joint
military exercises, and that they're a violation of U.N. Security
Council resolutions that ban use of ballistic missile technology.
According to a South Korean spokesman:

<QUOTE>"North Korea is taking a two-faced approach, showing
the reconciliatory peace gesture on the surface, while launching
provocations on the other hand," the spokesman said in a
briefing. "We sound a serious warning to North Korea, urging it to
stop provocations. ...

In light of the border trespassing and short-range missile
launches, South Korean and U.S. forces have stepped up their
surveillance status to closely watch the North Korean military's
latest moves. We are ready to strike back if
provoked."<END QUOTE>

A North Korean statement blamed the U.S.:

<QUOTE>"The United States is stepping up military
provocations, going against the tide of peace and eased tension on
the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. does not welcome improved
inter-Korean ties and is conducting all forms of maneuvers to
intensify confrontations between the two Koreas."<END QUOTE>

About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea. Yonhap (Seoul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Autonomous Republic of Crimea,
Russia, Sergey Aksyonov, Georgia, South Ossetia,
North Caucasus, Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatars, Josef Stalin,
Donbas, Transnistria, Moldova,
North Korea, South Korea

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*** 4-Mar-14 World View -- West discusses sanctions, as Russia prepares for war in Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• More on the 'Autonomous State of Crimea'
• West discusses sanctions, as Russia prepares for war in Ukraine
• Israel's Netanyahu rebukes Obama over Mideast peace process
• Is the United States really no different than Russia?

****
**** More on the 'Autonomous State of Crimea'
****

Several people have commented on yesterday's World View column with
the title "Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea"
by pointing out that Crimea has
been the "Autonomous State of Crimea" since the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. The point I was trying to make with that headline was
that Russia was taking over in Crimea, but the result was poorly
worded. I apologize for the confusion.

Other readers pointed out that South Ossetia has a majority Orthodox
Christian population. There is a sizable Muslim population, but it's
not a majority. I apologize for the error.

Thanks for the corrections. Republic of South Ossetia

****
**** West discusses sanctions, as Russia prepares for war in Ukraine
****


Protesters compare Russia's annexation of Crimea with Hitler's annexation of Sudetenland in 1938 (AP)

No shots have been fired yet, but that may change soon. Thousands of
Russian troops are pouring into Crimea, the southern peninsula of
Ukraine, trapping Ukrainian soldiers in their bases and Ukrainian
boats in their ports. There are 150,000 troops on Russia's Ukrainian
border doing military exercises.

There were several reports on Monday of ultimata given by the
Russians, demanding that the Ukrainians surrender or face a "military
storm." One of these deadlines is for late Monday evening, ET. These
reports have been denied by Moscow, and have described these claims of
threats as "nonsense."

As tensions skyrocket in Ukraine, investors dumped the Russian stocks
and the ruble currency. Russia's stock market plunged 11%, and the
ruble fell 1.8% against the dollar, and a similar amount against the
euro. Investors fear that Russia's energy exports will suffer, and
that Ukraine's corn and wheat exports will also suffer.

The administration of president Barack Obama is pinning its hopes on
these adverse economic reports as "costs" that Russia has to pay.
According to Obama on Monday:

<QUOTE>"Russia is on the wrong side of history. ...

What cannot be done is for Russia, with impunity, to put its
soldiers on the ground and violate basic principles that are
recognized around the world.

What we are also indicating to the Russians is that if, in fact,
they continue on the current trajectory that they're on, that we
are examining a whole series of steps -- economic, diplomatic --
that will isolate Russia."<END QUOTE>

According to the administration, Russia has already suffered heavy
"costs" of billions of dollars from the plunge in Russian stock shares
and rubles. The administration is considering sanctions against
Russia, such as restricting travel to the United States by Russian
officials and oligarchs.

Even if the administration went ahead with some kind of sanction,
chances are it would be meaningless. Sanctions cut both ways, and
Russia has many billion dollars of trade with Europe and more billions
with the U.S. Stocks didn't just fall in Russia on Monday. They
plunged globally, with the farthest in Russia. Any meaningful
sanctions would be so painful to everyone they would never be enacted.

However, according to the Washington Post's editorial board, which has
always been a strong supporter, Obama's foreign policy is "based on
fantasy":

<QUOTE>"For five years, President Obama has led a foreign
policy based more on how he thinks the world should operate than
on reality. It was a world in which 'the tide of war is receding'
and the United States could, without much risk, radically reduce
the size of its armed forces. Other leaders, in this vision,
would behave rationally and in the interest of their people and
the world. Invasions, brute force, great-power games and shifting
alliances — these were things of the past. Secretary of State John
F. Kerry displayed this mindset on ABC’s 'This Week' Sunday when
he said, of Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, 'It’s a 19th
century act in the 21st century.' ...

Unfortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not received
the memo on 21st-century behavior. Neither has China’s president,
Xi Jinping, who is engaging in gunboat diplomacy against Japan and
the weaker nations of Southeast Asia. Syrian president Bashar
al-Assad is waging a very 20th-century war against his own people,
sending helicopters to drop exploding barrels full of screws,
nails and other shrapnel onto apartment buildings where families
cower in basements. These men will not be deterred by the
disapproval of their peers, the weight of world opinion or even
disinvestment by Silicon Valley companies. They are concerned
primarily with maintaining their holds on power."<END QUOTE>

It's very hard disagree with anything in this editorial. After one
foreign policy debacle after another, in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq,
Afghanistan, and others, and after Monday's statement pinning hopes of
vague "costs" to stop Russia in Ukraine, I can only repeat what I've
said before: Typical of his Generation-X cohort, President Obama and
his staff have no clue whatsoever what's going on in the world.

As of this writing, nobody has fired a shot in Ukraine, but that could
change at any time. Russia is making threats, trying to get Kiev to
overreact, so that Russia will have an excuse for military action.
Perhaps Russia has no intention of military action, and is massing
troops for the purpose of gaining a negotiating advantage. But if so,
and even if Kiev continues to play it cool, even an accidental
"incident" could occur at any time and spiral into a military
conflict. AFP and Kyiv Post and Washington Post

****
**** Israel's Netanyahu rebukes Obama over Mideast peace process
****

In an interview late last week, President Barack Obama explained what
he was going to say to Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
during their Monday meeting. Obama said that he believes that
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas "is sincere about his willingness
to recognize Israel and its right to exist." However, Abbas has
repeatedly demanded that Israel could exist only on condition of the
"right to return," meaning that the grandchildren of Palestinians who
lost their homes in the 1940s could reclaim those homes in modern
Israel. Obama said:

<QUOTE>"We are coming to a point, though, over the next
couple of months where the parties are going to have to make some
decisions about how they move forward. And my hope and
expectation is that, despite the incredible political challenges,
that both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Abbas are able to reach
past their differences and arrive at a framework that can move us
to peace.

When I have a conversation with Bibi, that’s the essence of my
conversation. If not now, when? And if not you, Mr. Prime
Minister, then who? How does this get resolved?"<END QUOTE>

Obama repeated an earlier threat that the U.S. would not be able to
protect Israel from "international fallout," such as the Palestinians
joining the International Criminal Court as the nation "Palestine,"
and use that platform to accuse Israel of war crimes. According
to Obama,

<QUOTE>"If you see no peace deal, and continued aggressive
settlement construction -- and we have seen more aggressive
settlement construction over the last couple years than we’ve seen
in a very long time -- if Palestinians come to believe that the
possibility of a contiguous, sovereign Palestinian state is no
longer within reach, then our ability to manage the international
fallout is going to be limited."<END QUOTE>

In a joint press conference on Monday afternoon, Netanyahu
issued a rebuke:

<QUOTE>"The 20 years that have passed since Israel entered
the peace process have been marked by unprecedented steps that
Israel has taken to advance peace. I mean, we vacated cities in
[the West Bank]. We left entirely Gaza. We’ve not only frozen
settlements, we’ve uprooted entire settlements. We’ve released
hundreds of terrorist prisoners, including dozens in recent
months.

And when you look at what we got in return, it’s been scores of
suicide bombings, thousands of rockets on our cities fired from
the areas we vacated, and just incessant Palestinian incitement
against Israel. So Israel has been doing its part, and I regret
to say that the Palestinians haven’t.

Now, I know this flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but
it’s the truth. And the people of Israel know that it’s the truth
because they’ve been living it."<END QUOTE>

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a major regional war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the war that followed the 1948
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. It
really doesn't make any difference what Obama and Netanyahu say or do.
Bloomberg and White House

****
**** Is the United States really no different than Russia?
****

Something I've heard a lot in the last couple of weeks is that
Russia invades countries and the U.S. invades countries, and so
there's really no difference. This deserves a response.

Historically, this comparison is completely wrong. When the
U.S. "invades," it's for a police action in our role as policemen of
the world, for what we believe to be a benevolent cause. We became
policemen of the world in 1947 under the Truman Doctrine, which justified military
police actions because they could prevent a new world war, and because
their costs in blood and money are tiny in comparison to massive costs
of World War II. This was later reaffirmed by President John Kennedy
when he said, "Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you
can do for your country."

However, when Russia invades, it's to annex territory for the
Soviet/Russian empire.

The U.S. has never annexed Germany, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, or Iraq,
and has no plans to annex Afghanistan. You might argue that the
Vietnam war and other wars were mistakes, and that may (or may not) be
true. But it's incontrovertible that we did so to save South Vietnam
from Communism, and that we never had any intention whatsoever to
annex Vietnam. So there's no "moral equivalence" between Russia and
the United States.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Autonomous State of Crimea,
Russia, South Ossetia, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza

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*** 5-Mar-14 World View -- Wall Street goes parabolic on Russian troop pullback

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wall Street goes parabolic on Russian troop pullback
• While gaining in Ukraine, Putin now goes after Moldova
• Russia Today anchor Abby Martin criticizes Russia in Ukraine
• Spam of the Day - from Ukraine, with Love and Care

****
**** Wall Street goes parabolic on Russian troop pullback
****


Vladimir Putin at a news conference

Early on Tuesday morning (ET), Russian troops along the border with
Ukraine were recalled to barracks. That set Wall Street stock futures
rising. Then, a few hours later, Russia's president Vladimir Putin
gave a news conference saying that Russia had no intention of invading
Ukraine. That sent stocks parabolic, with a 228 point surge in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (March 4) morning was 17.87, which is
astronomically high by historical standards.

Here are some things that bubble-happy investors presumably didn't pay
attention to:

• Russian troops continue to mobilize in Crimea.
  
• In his press conference, Putin shook his finger and said that
  Russia reserves the right to use military force at any time to protect
  Russians.
  
• Many people believe Putin's conquest of Crimea is a fait
  accompli, in that Crimea is now completely under control of
  Russia.
  
• Russian troops in Crimea fired warning shots at Ukrainian
  troops during a shouting match.
  
• In an apparently show of power, Russia's military test-fired an
  intercontinental missile in Central Asia, near the border with
  Kazakhstan.

Putin said that there were no Russian troops in Crimea, which
is absurd.

The rest of the day was filled with tough talk from Western
leaders, including President Barack Obama and Secretary of
State John Kerry.

Very little has changed since yesterday. Nobody has fired a shot yet,
but even an accidental "incident" could occur at any time and spiral
into a military conflict. FxStreet and BBC

****
**** While gaining in Ukraine, Putin now goes after Moldova
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin used the 2008 invasion to prevent
Georgia from joining Nato, and with the recent invasion of Crimea,
Putin has prevented Ukraine from signing an Association Agreement with
the European Union. Now Putin is trying to prevent one more former
Soviet republic from signing an Association Agreement with the
European Union -- Moldova.

Moldova is a small country on the western boundary of Ukraine, while
Russia is along the eastern boundary. The Moldovan government has
been pro-European since 2009, and they're prepared to sign an
Association Agreement with the EU in August. Putin has been using
money and persuasion, funding anti-Europe referendums, pointing out
the hardships borne by countries in the European Union. Putin has
convinced Moldova's population to begin to turn against integration
with Europe, with only 44% now favoring it.

Russia is particularly focusing on the breakaway republic of
Transnistria, a region in the form of a strip of land along the border
of Ukraine, which strongly favors Russia, and has a similar role to
that of Crimea. Transnistria separated from Moldova in 1992 in a
civil war, and Russia has been subsidizing the region with $30 million
per year. Spiegel

****
**** Russia Today anchor Abby Martin criticizes Russia in Ukraine
****

At the end of her Monday tv broadcast on Russia Today's program
"Breaking the Set," American-born RT anchor Abby Martin criticized
RT's "misinformation" on the Ukraine crisis, and made an editorial
comment criticizing Russia's military intervention in Ukraine:

<QUOTE>"Just because I work here, for RT, doesn't mean I
don't have editorial independence and I can't stress enough how
strongly I am against any military intervention in sovereign
nations' affairs. What Russia did is wrong.

I will not sit here and apologize or defend military aggression.
Furthermore, the coverage I've seen of Ukraine has been truly
disappointing from all sides of the media spectrum, and ripe with
disinformation.

All we can do now is hope for a peaceful outcome for a terrible
situation, and prevent another full-blown cold war between
multiple superpowers. Until then, I'll keep telling the truth as I
see it. ...

I don’t know as much as I should about Ukraine’s history or the
cultural dynamics of the region, but what I do know is that
military intervention is never the answer."<END QUOTE>

As far as we know, Martin still has her job, and has not been sent to
a hard labor camp in Siberia. RT issued a statement that Martin is
free to express her own opinion, but not on the air. The statement
said there will be no reprimand, but she'll be sent to Crimea "to give
her an opportunity to make up her own mind from the epicenter of the
story." Mashable

****
**** Spam of the Day - from Ukraine, with Love and Care
****

Here's a spam message that I received last week:

<QUOTE>Good antibiotics made with love and care. In our
online store
http://iucxuvwabzjyp.[redacted].ua<END QUOTE>

The ".ua" suffix means that the web address is from Ukraine. I wonder
whether the "love and care" is being done by Russians or Ukrainians?

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Crimea, Moldova, Transnistria,
Abby Martin, Russia Today, Breaking the Set

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The Russians are clearing recreating a sphere of influence in the former Soviet space.

Golitsyn was right, Angleton was right, JFK was right. Two of the three are dead, one is either hiding or dead. But they were right.

*** 6-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares invasion, and Arab states have major split

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Lavrov blatantly lies as Russia prepares for Ukraine invasion
• Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran
• China refers to the U.S. ambassador as a 'banana'

****
**** Russia's Lavrov blatantly lies as Russia prepares for Ukraine invasion
****


A member of the Ukrainian Navy stands guard on top of the Ukrainian navy command ship Slavutych in Sevastopol. Russian ships are blockading the Ukrainian ships.

On Wednesday, Russia continued to mobilize its troops on Crimea,
apparently preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Absurdly, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to insist
that there were no Russian troops in Crimea. He said that they were
all ethnic Russian militias over which he has no control. If Lavrov
can sit there and make such a ridiculous lie, then assume that
everything else he and Putin say is a lie. Falsus in unum, falsus
in omnibus.

If you believe in actions rather than words, then Russia is preparing
for an invasion of Ukraine.

The rest of the day Wednesday was spent fatuous diplomatic posturings
on all sides. So nothing has changed since yesterday, and a major
conflict could still break out at any time, and appears to be
inevitable. Telegraph (London)

****
**** Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran
****

Since it was formed in 1981, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
alliance has always hid its internal differences from the public, so
Wednesday's very public split qualifies as a significant event. Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their
ambassadors from Qatar on Wednesday after a stormy GCC meeting on
Tuesday. Two other GCC members, Kuwait and Oman, took no position on
the split, and may try to mediate.

The three countries issued a joint statement saying that the split
occurred because Qatar allegedly refused to honor a security agreement
that all GCC members approved last year on November 23 not to back
"anyone threatening the security and stability of the GCC whether as
groups or individuals - via direct security work or through political
influence, and not to support hostile media." In particular, Qatar
has refused to implement three specific provisions:

• To distance all GCC States from the Muslim Brotherhood and its
  intrusive policies throughout the Arab World. The three countries say
  that Qatar is continuing its support of the Muslim Brotherhood in
  Egypt and throughout the region.
  
• To place strict broadcast restrictions on the Egyptian cleric,
  Shaikh Yousuf al-Qaradawi. Al-Jazeera is based in Doha, Qatar, and is
  funded by Qatar, and allows al-Qaradawi, who very vocally supports the
  Muslim Brotherhood, to speak frequently on al-Jazeera.
  
• To severely restrict the movement of Iranian operatives within
  the GCC. There have been unconfirmed reports that Qatar facilitated
  the movement of Iranians through the GCC. Apparently this was the
  main cause of disagreement at the stormy Tuesday meeting.

Qatar declined to withdraw its own ambassadors from the three
countries, and defended its relationships with the Muslim Brotherhood
and Iran:

<QUOTE>"The move taken by the brothers in Saudi Arabia, UAE
and Bahrain has nothing to do with the interests of the Gulf
peoples, their security and stability.

Qatar is very keen on maintaining brotherly links between the
people of Qatar and all other Gulf peoples."<END QUOTE>

A Qatari official said that the split is really about Egyptian
politics, targeting Egyptian general Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who headed
the coup that ousted Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood
government from the presidency last year:

<QUOTE>"It is unfortunate that some of them [GCC countries]
are trying to force Qatar to take certain policies which have
nothing to do with the Gulf, nothing to do with Saudi Arabia or
the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain.

The whole issue is really about Sisi. These countries, they are
supporting a coup d’état where thousands of Egyptians are being
killed in front of the whole world. And they want Qatar to support
such a policy. But we will never support any regime which kills
its own people.

I am sure in the days after that wisdom will come and these
countries will realize that trying to impose the philosophy of my
way or the highway will not work with Qatar."<END QUOTE>

Qatari officials are particularly infuriated because three al-Jazeera
reporters in Egypt for over two months, on charges of having reported
news in a way favorable to the Muslim Brotherhood. Gulf News (Dubai) and Al-Jazeera (Doha) and AFP

****
**** China refers to the U.S. ambassador as a 'banana'
****

A Chinese state media editorial has called Gary Locke, who is
finishing up his tenure as U.S. ambassador to China, a "banana,"
and a "guide dog" that had stirred an "evil wind."

In China, the epithet "banana" is an ethnic slur. It's related to the
American ethnic slur "Oreo," used by a black to refer to someone who
is black on the outside and white on the inside, meaning "not black
enough." Similarly, "banana" means yellow on the outside but white on
the inside, meaning not Chinese enough. (Apparently, "coconut" is
similarly used by Hispanics.)

Locke is of Chinese descent, but apparently he's more loyal to America
and American values than to China and Chinese values. Hence, he's a
"banana." To put it very simply: "America makes Chinese Americans,
but China does not -- and does not particularly want to -- make
American Chinese." CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov,
Ukraine, Crimea, Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Kuwait, Oman,
Iran, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, China, Gary Locke

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*** 7-Mar-14 World View -- Crimea votes to secede from Ukraine, galvanizing US and EU

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Henry Kissinger says that Vladimir Putin wants a way out
• Crimea's parliament votes to secede from Ukraine and join Russia
• United States and European Union apply sanctions
• India charges Kashmiri students with sedition for cheering Pakistan at cricket

****
**** Henry Kissinger says that Vladimir Putin wants a way out
****


Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State

Henry Kissinger is the most brilliant geopolitical analyst that I've
seen in my lifetime, so what he says, even when counter-intuitive, is
likely to be correct. He was interviewed on TV by Charlie Rose on
Thursday, and said the following:

<QUOTE>"No Russian I've ever met finds it easy, or even
possible, to consider Ukraine a totally separate country. It was
part of Russia for 300 years. The history of Russia and Ukraine
have been intertwined for several hundred years before that. So
the evolution of Ukraine is a matter that moves all
Russians."<END QUOTE>

As I described yesterday, Russia is claiming that there are no
Russian troops in Crimea, and that the Russian-speaking
troop-like people are really local militias over which Russia
has no control.

As I said, this is a blatant lie, as many reporters have spoken to
Russian soldiers in Crimea who SAY that they're Russian soldiers.
According to some estimates there are 16,000 Russian soldiers
in Crimea.

Kissinger says that lying about the soldiers is cynical, but it's a
good sign, because it provides a way for Russia to back down.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin is going to suffer a major loss of
prestige over the Ukraine crisis, no matter how it turns out,
according to Kissinger, and Putin knows this. So far, Putin has done
what he was forced to do. But now, since he's said that there are no
Russian soldiers in Crimea, he doesn't have to issue a public order
for the Russian soldiers to evacuate. Instead, he can just allow them
to melt into the population. Although Putin will suffer some loss of
prestige from this outcome, it's not as bad as other scenarios,
according to Kissinger.

Kissinger also commented on Thursday's hour-long phone call between
president Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin. Kissinger said that he's
always advised presidents he's worked for not to talk to other heads
of state, unless their staffs had done a lot of preparation in
advance. "There's a danger when you put two egos together, and they
talk unprepared. If they disagree about something, then to whom will
they be able to appeal to get a resolution?"

****
**** Crimea's parliament votes to secede from Ukraine and join Russia
****

Just when everyone was hoping that events in Ukraine were beginning to
settle down, they took a dangerous new turn early on Thursday when the
Parliament of the Autonomous State of Crimea voted to separate from
Ukraine and become part of Russia. There will be a referendum on
March 16 with two questions:

• Do you support the reunification of Crimea with Russia?
  
• Do you support the restoration of the Constitution of the Republic
  of Crimea in 1992, leaving it as part of Ukraine?

The question that receives more "yes" votes will be considered the
"will of the people."

The interim government in Kiev immediately said the vote was
unconstitutional, since regional governments can't vote to secede from
the nation. According to acting president Oleksandr Turchynov:

<QUOTE>"This will be a farce, this will be falsification,
this will be a crime against the state, which was organized by the
military of the Russian Federation."<END QUOTE>

Any attempt for Crimea to secede from Ukraine would be rejected by
Kiev, and might trigger a violent confrontation between federal forces
and regional forces, the latter supported by the Russians.

Most commentators are predicting that because of the ethnic Russian
majority in Crimea, the choice to secede and join Russia will win the
referendum. However, a BBC reporter in Sevastopol said on air that
he'd spoken to a lot of ordinary people who said that they want
Russia's protection, and they want Kiev to protect their rights, but
they don't want to become part of Russia. He said that it's far from
certain that the secession side will win the referendum. Kyiv Post

****
**** United States and European Union apply sanctions
****

The sanctions that the United States and the European Union imposed on
Russia on Thursday were pretty meaningless. Certain meetings have
been canceled, certain individuals won't be allowed to travel to
certain places, and so forth. It was all pretty symbolic.

What's interesting is that an emergency European Union summit on
Ukraine that had been going on for several days would have ended on
Thursday with no sanctions imposed whatsoever, if it hadn't been for
the Crimean Parliament vote for secession. Leaders of EU member
nations that had rejected sanctions because they would just inflame
the issue further changed their minds, and the talk of the secession
referendum ended up galvanizing Europe's response. The symbolic
sanctions were approved, along with a statement that said that trade
sanctions would be employed if Russia escalated further. (No one
seriously believes that the EU would ever apply trade sanctions to
Russia, since Russia would retaliate, with devastating results to both
sides.) CNN

****
**** India charges Kashmiri students with sedition for cheering Pakistan at cricket
****

A group of Kashmiri students in an Indian university were charged with
sedition on Sunday when they cheered for Pakistan at a big
Pakistan-India cricket match, and then celebrated when Pakistan won.
The sedition charges, which might have resulted in 3-year prison
terms, were dropped on Tuesday, but other charges of "disrupting
communal harmony" and "causing damage to public property" are still
being investigate. However, the students have all been suspended as a
"precautionary measure" for their own safety, and have been sent home.
The suspension affects all 67 students in the Kashmiri community,
since no one was willing to identify the specific few students who had

The suspended students are saying that the damage to property was done
by the Indian team supporters, who vandalized their rooms. These
charges are not being investigated. Hindustan Times (India) and Tribune (Pakistan) and BBC



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Crimea, Henry Kissinger, Charlie Rose,
Oleksandr Turchynov, India, Kashmir, Pakistan

Permanent web link to this article
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The question that receives more "yes" votes will be considered the
"will of the people."

Sounds an awful lot like democracy to me. We'll see how it goes.

The interim government in Kiev immediately said the vote was
unconstitutional, since regional governments can't vote to secede from
the nation. According to acting president Oleksandr Turchynov

You know that the deposition of Yanukovych, who for all his corruption was democratically elected, was definitely unconstitutional, right? It didn't follow the constitutional procedure at all.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Sounds an awful lot like democracy to me. We'll see how it goes.

> You know that the deposition of Yanukovych, who for all his
> corruption was democratically elected, was definitely
> unconstitutional, right? It didn't follow the constitutional
> procedure at all.

For the record, I know nothing about Ukraine's constitution. It's
acting president Oleksandr Turchynov who's saying that the referendum
is unconstitutional.

However, I did hear a BBC analyst the other day say that the
constitution is ambiguous over whether Yanukovych can be ousted by the
parliament. He seemed to be saying that two clauses contradict each
other.

John

*** 8-Mar-14 World View -- Venezuela breaks diplomatic relations with Panama

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela breaks diplomatic relations with Panama
• Russia escalates the conflict over Ukraine's Crimea region

****
**** Venezuela breaks diplomatic relations with Panama
****


Protesters fight police in Caracas on Thursday (AFP)

Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro has severed diplomatic relations
with Panama, accusing the country of being a "lackey" for the United
States in a conspiracy plot against his government. According to
Maduro:

<QUOTE>"There are maneuvers by the U.S. government plotting
with a lackey government that has a right-wing president who is
leaving in the next few months, who is not worthy of his people,
who has been working actively against Venezuela."<END QUOTE>

The expulsion was triggered by a Panamanian request for a meeting
of the Organization of American States (OAS) to discuss
solutions to the unrest and violence in Venezuela. Maduro
said:

<QUOTE>"Nobody will conspire with impunity to ask for an
intervention against our fatherland. Enough!"<END QUOTE>

Maduro expelled three U.S. diplomats recently, on accusations of
recruiting students to hold violent, rock-throwing protests against
him. Washington has rejected the claims as baseless. But Maduro is
desperate to blame anyone he can for the disastrous economic situation
in his country, which continues to worsen, especially since the death
of his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. The inflation rate at 56% is the
highest in the world. The murder rate is 25,000 annually, one of the
world's highest per capita rates, and 97% of the murders go
unpunished. The supermarket shelves are bare, with shortages of
everything from toilet paper to vegetables. Anti-government protests
have been getting larger and more violent for a month.

However, Maduro's move may simply be a way to get out of paying
a debt. Venezuela owes Panama about $1 billion, mostly from
debts incurred related to use of the Panama Canal, and
for COPA, the Panamanian airline.

According to Panama's president Ricardo Martinelli:

<QUOTE>"I don't want to think that this is an excuse not to
pay and that the Venezuelan state is a deadbeat.

Venezuela would appear to be bankrupt, although it shouldn't be
because it is a very rich country."<END QUOTE>

Martinelli suggested that despite breaking diplomatic relations,
Venezuela "has no excuse" to not pay off its debts. Russia Today and CNN and AFP

****
**** Russia escalates the conflict over Ukraine's Crimea region
****

Russia escalated the conflict over Ukraine's Crimea region
both politically and militarily on Friday. In doing so,
hopes that the crisis might end soon seem very unrealistic.

Although Russia still refuses to admit that there are Russian
troops in Crimea, it was clear that Russian troops were
tightening their grip within Crimea:

• Russian troops have been blocking Ukrainian military
  bases, and demanding to take control.
  
• While the Russian troops were "negotiating" with the Ukrainians at
  one military base, pro-Russian militias showed up and beat up
  journalists who were trying to report on the event.
  
• Russia's Navy warships sank two boats in Sevastopol harbor in
  order to blockade Ukrainian ships, and prevent them from
  leaving.

On the political front, there's been a lot of euphoria in Moscow after
the Crimean parliament voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia,
and to hold a referendum on March 16. Russia is making plans to annex
Crimea and Sevastopol as new members of the Russian Federation. It
was announced that on March 21, the Duma will vote for a
constitutional amendment to allow for the annexation of Crimea, making
it the first addition to Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

It's only been a few days since Russia's president Vladimir Putin
promised not to "consider" annexing Crimea. That promise was
broken within two days by fast-moving events.

Three days ago, Russian troops that had been performing military
drills along the border between Russia and Ukraine for several days
were recalled to their barracks. As I wrote
at the time, this was considered such good news that Wall
Street was sent into a bubble-happy frenzy, pushing stocks up
parabolically.

But in fact, something similar happened in 2008. There were massive
military maneuvers on the border with Georgia, leading to fears that
Russia was about to invade Georgia. Everyone breathed a sign of
relief when the military exercises ended on July 31. But the invasion
of Georgia began only eight days later, on August 8. If Russia
follows the same pattern, then a full-scale invasion of Ukraine may be
only a few days away. CNN and
BBC and
Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez,
Panama, Ricardo Martinelli,
Organization of American States, OAS,
Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia

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Originally Posted by TimWalker

I expect Obama and other politicians will condemn an invasion of the Ukraine...and essentially do nothing.

Good call. In fact, this may be a behind-the-scenes deal already.

BTW, Gary Locke was governor of Washington state.

*** 9-Mar-14 World View -- Growing U.S. - Iran - Hezbollah relationship alienates Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Captured Iranian arms vessel docks in Israel
• Growing U.S. - Iran - Hezbollah relationship alienates Israel
• Russia increases its military presence in Ukraine's Crimea

****
**** Captured Iranian arms vessel docks in Israel
****


Iranian missile captured by Israel forces

A commercial vessel, the Klos-C, from Iran docked in Israel late
Saturday. The Panamanian-flagged vessel had sailed a circuitous route
from Iran, and was loaded with dozens of medium-range Syrian M-302
missiles destined for Gaza.

Israeli and U.S. intelligence had been tracking the ship for months.
The missiles were flown from Syria to Iran several months ago. In
late December, the Klos C sailed from the Black Sea through the Suez
Canal to the Persian Gulf, docking in Iran around January 23. The
weapons were stashed onboard, unknown even to the Turkish captain and
the crew members of various nationalities. It departed on February 3,
stopping at another port, finally sailing out of the Gulf, around
Yemen, and into the Red Sea where it was intercepted by Israeli
forces. The plan was to dock at Port Sudan on the Red Sea, from where
the missiles could be transported overland to Gaza.

The entire allegation is a manufactured lie, created at the behest of
Jewish lobbyists in the United states, according to a spokeswoman for
Iran's foreign ministry:

<QUOTE>"The claims and extensive anti-Iran propaganda were
made while the Zionist regime’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
was in Washington to attend the annual conference of the American
Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)."<END QUOTE>

A Palestinian official said the following:

<QUOTE>"The ship has been sailing for weeks and it is seized
exactly when Netanyahu is in Washington. The entire operation and
the reports raise many questions regarding the timing and whether
the event was real or fabricated."<END QUOTE>

The M-302 rockets have range of between 90 to 190 kilometers,
depending on their model type, and their arrival in Gaza would have
represented a boost to the ability of Islamic Jihad to target Israeli
cities with missiles. Jerusalem Post and Forbes and Fars (Tehran)

****
**** Growing U.S. - Iran - Hezbollah relationship alienates Israel
****

As the nuclear arms talks with Iran proceed, Israeli leaders are
increasingly distrustful of the administration of president Barack
Obama who, they fear, will continue to make numerous concessions to
Iran and in the end will still allow Iran to continue development of
nuclear weapons. Israel is pointing to the intercepted weapons
shipment as proof that Iran cannot be trusted to keep its word.

In fact, reports from Lebanon media indicate that the U.S.
is developing a closer relationship with Iran, but also with
Hezbollah, the Lebanese group named by the U.S. and the
West as one of the major terrorist groups in the world. At
Qatar's request, a Lebanese security agency has been mediating
between the U.S. and Hezbollah.

Areas of cooperation between Hezbollah and the CIA include
intelligence information on al-Qaeda linked rebel groups
in Syria, with the U.S. attempting to help Hezbollah evade
terrorist attacks.

First reports of links began in 2012, with the number of
meetings growing throughout 2013. By January 2014, the
meetings have become very detail oriented, and cover topics
such as the following:

• Cooperation in fighting al-Qaeda linked groups al-Nusra
  and ISIS that have grown in Syria.
  
• Cooperation on ending or limiting the string of terrorist
  attacks against Hezbollah strongholds in and around Beirut.
  
• Possibility of U.S. drone strikes against Sunni terrorist targets
  in Syria, using intelligence gathered by Hezbollah.

The reasons for the growing relationship between the U.S., Hezbollah
and Iran, despite Israeli objections, are in shared interests in
fighting Sunni terrorist organizations, while disregarding the Shia
terrorism promoted by Iran and Hezbollah. The U.S. seems to perceive
Shia terrorism as a lesser danger to its security than Sunni
terrorism.

It's ironic, as I've been writing for months, that it's these three
entities, along with Russia, that have CREATED the Sunni terrorist
threat in Syria and made it as large as it's become. This is because
Russia has been supplying unlimited numbers of weapons to the
genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and supporting
him, along with passive support of the Obama administration, as he
conducts "industrial strength" torture and extermination on his own
civilians, even using sarin gas against his own people, and
particularly targeting innocent Sunni women and children. This has
drawn Sunni terrorist jihadists from Europe, from Russia's Caucasus
region, from northern Africa, from Pakistan, and even from as far away
as Indonesia. Thanks to the U.S., Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, Syria
has become the jihadist capital of the world.

However, what's really interesting about all this is that the
Generational Dynamics prediction that I've been posting for almost ten
years is coming true. When I started writing in the mid-2000s decade
that India, Russia and Iran would be allied with the West against
China, Pakistan, and the Sunni countries, it seemed almost fantastical
that we would be allied with Iran. And yet, that's exactly the
direction we're going. This is further proof of the validity of the
Generational Dynamics methodology. Haaretz and Memri

****
**** Russia increases its military presence in Ukraine's Crimea
****

Hundreds of military trucks transporting heavily armed soldiers are
reinforcing Russia's presence in Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula.
Many of them were seen in eastern Crimea on Friday night after
apparently having crossed the Straits of Kerch, which separates Crimea
from Russian territory. Different reports estimate that there are
between 11,000 and 20,000 Russian troops in Crimea. In the week since
Russia seized control of Crimea, Russian troops have been neutralizing
and disarming Ukrainian military bases here. Some Ukrainian units,
however, have refused to give up, and all Ukrainian bases have been
blockaded. AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Iran, Klos-C, Gaza, Panama,
M-302 missiles, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah,
Bashar al-Assad, Russia, al-Nusra, ISIS,
Crimea, Ukraine, Straits of Kerch

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REUTERS --

* Malaysia Airlines flight loses contact about one hour after takeoff

* No distress signal or sign of bad weather

* Kuala Lumpur-Beijing flight carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew

* Two passengers were travelling under false identities

KUALA LUMPUR/HO CHI MINH CITY, March 9 (Reuters) - A Malaysia Airlines flight carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew was presumed to have crashed off the Vietnamese coast on Saturday, and European officials said two people on board were using false identities.

There were no reports of bad weather and no sign why the Boeing 777-200ER would have vanished from radar screens about an hour after it took off from Kuala Lumpur for Beijing.

"We are not ruling out any possibilities," Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya told a news conference.

By the early hours of Sunday, there were no confirmed signs of the plane or any wreckage, more than 24 hours after it went missing. Operations will continue through the night, officials said.

There were no indications of sabotage nor claims of a terrorist attack. But the passenger manifest issued by the airline included the names of two Europeans - Austrian -------* and Italian ----------* - who, according to their foreign ministries, were not in fact on the plane.

A foreign ministry spokesman in Vienna said: "Our embassy got the information that there was an Austrian on board. That was the passenger list from Malaysia Airlines. Our system came back with a note that this is a stolen passport."

Austrian police had found the man safe at home. The passport was stolen two years ago while he was travelling in Thailand, the spokesman said.

The foreign ministry in Rome said no Italian was on the plane either, despite the inclusion of -------* name on the list. His mother, --------*, told Reuters his passport was lost, presumed stolen, in Thailand in 2013.

The 11-year-old Boeing, powered by Rolls-Royce Trent engines, took off at 12:40 a.m. (1640 GMT Friday) from Kuala Lumpur International Airport and was apparently flying in good weather conditions when it went missing without a distress call.

A crash, if confirmed, would likely mark the U.S.-built airliner's deadliest incident since entering service 19 years ago. It would also be the second fatal accident involving a Boeing 777 in less than a year.

An Asiana Airlines Boeing 777-200ER crash-landed in San Francisco in July 2013, killing three passengers and injuring more than 180.

Boeing said it was monitoring the situation but had no further comment.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...ef=mostpopular

.................

(*I have deleted names to protect the innocent).

Most of the passengers seem to be ethnic Chinese, according to the passenger manifest, even if citizenship is not PRC.

I suspect very foul play. The FBI is investigating because of three American citizens on the flight and because the jetliner was built in America. Mechanical failure is a possibility. Two passengers with stolen passports is highly suspicious.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

I suspect very foul play. The FBI is investigating because of three American citizens on the flight and because the jetliner was built in America. Mechanical failure is a possibility. Two passengers with stolen passports is highly suspicious.

It does look like terrorism, but there's a competing theory: The plane
disappears in the black of night, at a time when it's impossible to
tell the difference between the ocean and the sky. Furthermore,
planes have become so automated that many pilots have lost their basic
flying skills. So there might have been some minor problem that
caused the pilot to take manual control, and then he crashed into the
sea before he even knew it.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

It does look like terrorism, but there's a competing theory: The plane
disappears in the black of night, at a time when it's impossible to
tell the difference between the ocean and the sky. Furthermore,
planes have become so automated that many pilots have lost their basic
flying skills. So there might have been some minor problem that
caused the pilot to take manual control, and then he crashed into the
sea before he even knew it.

I know nothing about flying a jetliner, but I figure that there are so many warnings about loss of altitude and drifting off course (think of KAL 007) that no pilot could miss them.

Unless it is mechanical failure I think "bomb", and it could as easily be insurance fraud as terrorism. The FBI is snooping around, and innocent people will talk. Maybe someone at the gate will remember someone with an Austrian passport who couldn't respond to something so basic as "Guten Tag" or "Guten Abend" as might some Chinese ex-pat stationed in Austria. Customs officials can trip up people who have questionable purposes with small talk. Don't know who Mozart is? Tsk, tsk, tsk if you have an Austrian passport.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> I know nothing about flying a jetliner, but I figure that there
> are so many warnings about loss of altitude and drifting off
> course (think of KAL 007) that no pilot could miss them.

You're probably right, but the reason I thought of that is because it
happened a few years ago with an Air France flight from Rio de Janiero
to Paris:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...UR-flight.html

John

Suspicion that the plane was blown up by Uighur terrorists.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...ht-who-3222758

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Suspicion that the plane was blown up by Uighur terrorists.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...ht-who-3222758

What I dread.

China is less advanced in its current 4T than the US -- and in a more dangerous stage of a 4T. The last completed 4T for China ended with the Red Army conquering Hainan and Xinjiang in 1950 or so, which is five years after the end of the last completed 4T in America. China faces the danger of an economic bubble bigger than the one that imploded in America in 2008 and ethnic rifts that America has never had. The political system is excessively rigid, economic inequality is severe, and the enforcement organs of the Party and Government overreact (think of the Falun Gang). China has solved none of the political deficiencies that it had in 1989.

*** 10-Mar-14 World View -- Ukraine - Russia crisis presents problems for China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine - Russia crisis presents problems for China
• Relations between Ukraine and China
• China: 'There is no room for compromise'
• Libya in chaos, war threatened over North Korean tanker

****
**** Ukraine - Russia crisis presents problems for China
****


Ukraine's president Viktor Yanukovich and China's president Xi Jinping in December, signing a military and nuclear pact. (AFP)

Some commentators have said that China will face a difficult decision
in the United Nations Security Council when it has to decide whether
to side with Russia in its military intervention Ukraine's Crimea
region. China always takes the moral high ground by declaring that no
country should interfere internally with another country (which it
ignores when it comes to interfering in African countries). Thus, no
outsider should interfere with China's mass slaughtering of Tibetans,
for example, since that's an internal matter. So now China wants to
side with Russia, but has the dilemma of dealing with its "moral"
position of non-interference.

According to one report that I've heard, China has resolved this moral
dilemma by blaming the United States. According to China, it was the
"biased mediation" by the U.S. that interfered with Ukraine by
encouraging the original Maidan anti-government protesters to continue
protesting peacefully. Thus, according to this reasoning, it's OK
with China for Russia to invade Ukraine, because of the
U.S. interference in Ukraine's affairs. VOA and Want China Times

****
**** Relations between Ukraine and China
****

Oddly enough, China has close relations with Ukraine, with military,
trade and agricultural partnerships. In 2012 Ukraine became the
fourth-largest arms exporter in the world, with many of those exports
going to China. Beijing's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was
built in Ukraine.

Perhaps even more surprising is that China has a nuclear pact with
Ukraine. On December 5, President Viktor Yanukovich signed an accord
with a clause that says that in the event of a nuclear attack or so
much as the threat of one, China would offer Kiev military support.

This pact is seen as sending a message to China's Asian neighbors
that China is a nuclear power and a growing military power and,
unlike the United States, is not afraid to use its military power
to get what it wants.

What it wants is a great deal of territory in the South China Sea, the
East China Sea, and Asia, including regions that have belonged to
other countries for centuries, that it would take immediately were
it not for the United States. Speaking to the National People's
Congress on Saturday, China's foreign minister Wang Yi
said:

<QUOTE>"We will not take anything that is not ours, but we
will defend every inch of territory that belongs to us. We will
never bully smaller countries, yet we will not accept unreasonable
denunciation from smaller countries.

There will not be any change to this position. We will more
actively practice our neighborhood diplomacy guideline of amity,
sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness. ...

We are also willing to listen to the voices from our neighboring
countries and respond to the doubts about China’s neighborhood
diplomacy. ... [With regard to the disputes with Japan,] on the
two issues of principle, history and territory, there is no room
for compromise."<END QUOTE>

Foreign Policy and Al-Jazeera

****
**** China: 'There is no room for compromise'
****

I'm not sure what Wang Yi means by "We will never bully smaller
countries." China has been bullying smaller countries in the South
China Sea for years, and has already used its military might to annex
territories that have historically belonged to the Philippines and
Vietnam. It has clearly stated that it intends to use its military
power to annex multiple regions belonging to other countries in the
South China Sea, as well as the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands governed by
Japan. China has also made repeated military incursions into India,
threatening to confiscate regions along their common border.

It would seem that China and Russia are completely on the same page.
Russia has invaded Ukraine's Crimea and will probably annex it to
Russia, and China plans to invade numerous neighboring regions and
annex them.

In fact, China is also threatening Russia's Far East. Population in
the Far East has fallen 50% since the 1990s, while China has sent a
flood of illegal migrants to repopulate the region, and take advantage
of the rich natural resources. ( "22-Mar-11 News -- Russian offer of Japanese resettlement in Siberia raises xenophobic tensions"
)

This is consistent with what Generational Dynamics has been predicting
for years -- that in the approaching Clash of Civilization world war,
China, Pakistan and other countries will be allied against the U.S.,
India, Russia, and other countries. So the current relationship
between Russia and China is a friendship of convenience. Russia
and China were close to thermonuclear war in the 1960s, and they
will be at war again.

American commentators and politicians constantly worry about the
danger of war between Russia and the West, when there's actually
little chance of that. In the meantime, China is spending billions of
dollars every year developing and deploying new weapons systems that
have absolutely no purpose other than to permit a preemptive nuclear
missile attack on America's cities, aircraft carries, and military
installations. Indian Express

****
**** Libya in chaos, war threatened over North Korean tanker
****

Historically, the eastern and western regions of Libya have
been in conflict, and during the 2011 revolution that overthrew
Muammar Gaddafi, eastern and western rebels fought with each
other, as well as against Gaddafi forces. Now the eastern
region, formerly known as Cyrenaica and now called
the Barqa Region, are the rebels against the new government
in Tripoli in western Libya.

On Saturday, a North Korean tanker, the Morning Glory, docked in
As-Sidra in eastern Libya, and has been loaded with $38 million worth
of crude oil from Libya's wells. Tripoli is saying that the sale is
illegal, and has threatened to bomb the ship if it leaves port with
the oil. The rebel government says that if any harm comes to the
tanker, it would be "a declaration of war." Reuters and CNN



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, China, Xi Jinping,
Russia, Japan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Wang Yi,
Libya, Cyrenaica, Barqa, North Korea, As-Sidra

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