Could we get a citation of actual large-scale immigration of Chinese people into Siberia?

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Could we get a citation of actual large-scale immigration of Chinese people into Siberia?

From 2011:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...d=82969&page=1

Eh, "Yellow Peril" fear-mongering at its best. An alternate perspective:

http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russ...losing-siberia
http://indrus.in/articles/2012/12/08...ina_19641.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/bu...anted=all&_r=0

Basically, there are a few hundred thousand permanent residents, and seasonal workers moving back and forth between the two. China is getting rich, and starting to run out of cheap workers. The only way they are going to immigrate to Siberia en masse is if China gets nuked and they're running away.

Which, i suppose, is entirely possible.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Eh, "Yellow Peril" fear-mongering at its best. An alternate
> perspective:

> http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russ...losing-siberia
> http://indrus.in/articles/2012/12/08...ina_19641.html
> http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/bu...anted=all&_r=0

> Basically, there are a few hundred thousand permanent residents,
> and seasonal workers moving back and forth between the two.
> China is getting rich, and starting to run out of cheap workers.
> The only way they are going to immigrate to Siberia en masse is if
> China gets nuked and they're running away.

> Which, i suppose, is entirely possible.

No it's not fear-mongering. The "Yellow Peril" is not that a few
Chinese immigrants are crossing the border. The Yellow Peril is that
once China decides that it wants something, even if that something
belongs to someone else, it then applies its Lebensraum policy and
prepares to use massive military force to get it.

Just as Russia is using "protection of Russians" as an excuse to
invade Ukraine, China can use "protection of Chinese" as an excuse to
invade Russia, or any other convenient target.

John

You're still speaking in hypotheticals. I am not disputing that China could, just that there is zero evidence of them actually making a bid to annex Siberia and the Russian Far East from the Russian Federation.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

You're still speaking in hypotheticals. I am not disputing that China could, just that there is zero evidence of them actually making a bid to annex Siberia and the Russian Far East from the Russian Federation.

Having an area populated by people ethnically similar to those of a country militarily weaker or similar in military strength is no threat. Think of people of French-Canadian origin in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine... or Slovenes and Croats in southern Austria. Having an area populated by people ethnically similar to those of a country militarily stronger is potentially a ticking time bomb. Think of the Sudetenland (German speakers in Czechoslovakia before 1938), South Tyrol (as understood in Austria and Germany)/Alto Adige (as known in Italy) or Alsace (largely the Départements of Haut-Rhin and Bas-Rhin in France today) before World War II.

Even a few million Chinese in the areas of the Russian Far East would create a contemporary equivalent of the Sudetenland. Considering the vast difference between Russian and Chinese culture such would be a ticking time bomb in the event of any time of political distress.

Still hypotheticals. The bulk of even unofficial Chinese residents in Russia are in Moscow.

*** 11-Mar-14 World View -- Terrorist bombings continue in Pakistan despite so-called 'cease-fire'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea's Kim Jong-un reelected with 100% of the vote
• Terrorist bombings continue in Pakistan despite so-called 'cease-fire'
• Outrage growing in Pakistan as famine kills hundreds of children
• 3D printing promises to revolutionize defense, aerospace industries

****
**** North Korea's Kim Jong-un reelected with 100% of the vote
****


Kim Jong-un voting for himself on Sunday

North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un has won re-election to the
Supreme People's Assembly, receiving 100% of the vote, with 100%
turnout. According to the official news agency:

<QUOTE>"This is an expression of all the service personnel
and people's absolute support and profound trust in supreme leader
Kim Jong Un as they single-mindedly remain loyal to
him."<END QUOTE>

When you vote in North Korea, there's only one candidate on the
ballot, and you're allowed to vote Yes or No. And the way you do that
is to openly pick up the Yes ballot from one table or the No ballot
from another table, in full view of everyone, and then drop the ballot
into the ballot box.

The reason that North Korea even holds elections is because it allows
the authorities to keep track of dissidents, as not being home to vote
would put a dissident's life in danger. Independent (London) and AP

****
**** Terrorist bombings continue in Pakistan despite so-called 'cease-fire'
****

On March 3, terrorists carried out a terrorist suicide bombing on a
courthouse in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, killing 11 people,
including a judge, and wounding 23 others. According to reports, the
terrorists entered the complex and opened fire indiscriminately at
everyone, hurled hand grenades and later exploded their suicide vests.

This came just one day after the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban -
TTP) announced a one-month "unconditional" cease-fire, to allow
negotiations with the government to continue. As I indicated at the
time, these cease-fire announcements are often used by terrorists to
give themselves time to restock their weapons inventory. After the
March 3 attack, a TTP spokesman said,

<QUOTE>"We have already declared a ceasefire and we strictly
adhere to our deal with the Government. Our colleagues in the
organisation also cannot violate this agreement."<END QUOTE>

Well, apparently that doesn't apply to all of TTP's "colleagues." One
of their colleagues is supposed to be Ahrar-ul-Hind (AH), a TTP
splinter group, who claimed responsibility for the March 3 attack.
According to an AH spokesman:

<QUOTE>"We are an independent group and have no links with
TTP. We were a part of TTP earlier but now we operate
independently."<END QUOTE>

He said that the judicial system in the country was "un-Islamic" and
that they would continue their "struggle" till Shariah law was
enforced.

In Punjab province alone (the province where Islamabad is located),
there are at least 57 extremist and terrorist outfits, out of which at
28 are homegrown. Punjab is also home to various foreign terrorists,
including the Afghan Taliban and Uzbek terrorists. Security forces do
little to stop these groups, for fear of being attacked themselves in
retribution. Some of these groups, particularly Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT), were originally created by Pakistan's security forces in the
1980s to fight the Indians in Kashmir or the Russians in Afghanistan.
Today, those groups have turned against Pakistan, and are actively
training to take control of Afghanistan once the Americans and Nato
leave. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** Outrage growing in Pakistan as famine kills hundreds of children
****


Hundreds of villages have been vacated in the drought (The Nation)

Hundreds of children have died of malnutrition and disease in
Pakistan's Sindh province in the last few weeks, because of the worst
drought since 2000. On Sunday, 375 children were brought to a single
hospital on one day. In just the last few days, thousands of families
have been compelled to leave their homes in search of water, leaving
hundreds of villages vacated. Finger-pointing has begun, with the
federal government and the local Sindh government accusing each other
of letting the situation get out of control. The Nation (Pakistan) and Gulf Times

****
**** 3D printing promises to revolutionize defense, aerospace industries
****


3D Printing

3D printers have gained worldwide attention for their ability to
create all kinds of small objects, particularly guns, on the fly.
However, 3D printing, also called "additive manufacturing," has been
hampered so far because the plastic materials used in the process
created items that broke under stress. But new, more advanced
printers use metal-based substances, making it possible to manufacture
hard-to-make items, such as brackets and tools for multi-million
dollar programs ranging from satellites to jet fighters,
revolutionizing the defense and aerospace industries. National Defense Magazine


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Islamabad, Punjab, Ahrar-ul-Hind, AH, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT,
3D printing, additive manufacturing

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

No it's not fear-mongering. The "Yellow Peril" is not that a few
Chinese immigrants are crossing the border. The Yellow Peril is that
once China decides that it wants something, even if that something
belongs to someone else, it then applies its Lebensraum policy and
prepares to use massive military force to get it.

Just as Russia is using "protection of Russians" as an excuse to
invade Ukraine, China can use "protection of Chinese" as an excuse to
invade Russia, or any other convenient target.

John

Supposed past and future "conflicts" may be part of the scissors strategy outlined by Golitsyn. Such a strategy takes a page from Sun Tzu. Think about what the supposed "Sino-Soviet Split" led to. Here is a short list I can think of off the top of my head. It led to:
- A thaw between the US and China
- The initiation of US funds and technology moving into China
- A perception, right or wrong, on the part of the West, that Vietnam and Cambodia were respectively on opposite sides of The Split
- Ultimately, dependence of the US on China

Now, looking at the "Yellow Peril" ... those who would downplay the SCO can use notions of a future Sino-Russian split to make their case. Making their case would result in the West being unprepared for something like 1950s Era East Bloc II or the earlier version, The Mongol Empire.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Still hypotheticals. The bulk of even unofficial Chinese residents in Russia are in Moscow.

Part of that is because Moscow is so big and the Russian Far East (which is, by the way, *not* Siberia) is so very lightly populated. You don't notice many Chinese faces in Moscow among the crowds, but in Vladivostok it seems like they're everywhere.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Part of that is because Moscow is so big and the Russian Far East (which is, by the way, *not* Siberia) is so very lightly populated. You don't notice many Chinese faces in Moscow among the crowds, but in Vladivostok it seems like they're everywhere.

I at least am aware of the distinction.

You're still speaking in hypotheticals. I am not disputing that China could, just that there is zero evidence of them actually making a bid to annex Siberia and the Russian Far East from the Russian Federation.

I don't know if you're actually directing that at me, but the point I'm making is that evidence of Chinese peasants annexing Sibera and/or the Russian Far East is thin on the ground.

*** 12-Mar-14 World View -- Accusations fly as Israeli-Palestinian 'peace process' nears deadline

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Genghis Khan owes his Mongol Empire to global warming
• Accusations fly as Israeli-Palestinian 'peace process' nears deadline

****
**** Genghis Khan owes his Mongol Empire to global warming
****


Genghis Khan

A study of tree rings in Asia shows that the meteoric rise of Genghis
Khan's Mongol empire occurred during several decades of warm, moist
weather in 1211-25, that followed a period of severe drought from
about 1180-90. The warm, wet weather provided rich, productive
pastures fr the herds of war horses on which the Mongols and Khan's
invading armies depended. According to the study's author:

<QUOTE>"The transition from extreme drought to extreme
moisture right then strongly suggests that climate played a role
in human events. It wasn’t the only thing, but it must have
created the ideal conditions for a charismatic leader to emerge
out of the chaos, develop an army and concentrate power.

Where it’s arid, unusual moisture creates unusual plant
productivity, and that translates into horsepower. Genghis was
literally able to ride that wave."<END QUOTE>

Each Mongolian horseman in Genghis’s army is said to have had up to
five horses, which provided a supply of meat as well as transport.
Higher grass yields would have also caused a boom in camels, yaks,
cattle, sheep and other livestock. Independent (London)

****
**** Accusations fly as Israeli-Palestinian 'peace process' nears deadline
****

Pretty much everyone has known from the beginning that the Obama
administration inspired 9-month Mideast "peace process" never had a
chance of reaching an agreement, but now that the nine months are
almost up and a deadline is approaching, all parties are positioning
themselves to blame someone else when the talks collapse.

The lynchpin that's kept the talks going for this long is that the
Obama administration convinced Israeli leaders last July to release
104 prisoners, in four evenly spaced groups of 26, from Israeli jails.
All the released prisoners had been convicted of terrorist acts prior
to the 1994 Oslo accords. But they're treated as heroes by the
Palestinians, and so the Palestinian negotiators are willing to
continue the negotiations as long as the prisoners are being released.
78 prisoners have been released so far, and the last batch of 26 are
scheduled for release on March 28. The "peace talks" then officially
end on April 29.

Among the issues separating the two sides, there are two major
ones:

• The Israelis insist that since there will be a "Palestinian
  state," the Palestinians should agree that Israel is a "Jewish state."
  In fact, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas has taken a
  firm stand against recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, and the Arab
  League has backed him, saying that Israel as a Jewish state would make
  Israeli Arabs second class citizens.
  
• The Palestinians insist that the Israelis must agree to a "right
  of return," meaning that the grandchildren of Palestinians who lost
  their homes in the 1940s could reclaim those homes in modern Israel.
  The Israelis have taken a firm stand against this, saying that if all
  th children and grandchildren of Palestinian refugees were permitted
  to return to their 1940s homes, then Israel would no longer exist.
  The Israelis also point out that although there are many Palestinians
  living in Israel, not a single Israeli civilian or soldier will be
  permitted to live in a Palestinian state.

The U.S. State Dept. appears to be siding with the Palestinians, in a
statement by State Dept. spokesman Jen Psaki said:

<QUOTE>"The American position is clear, Israel is a Jewish
state. However, we do not see a need that both sides recognize
this position as part of the final agreement."<END QUOTE>

Since there's no chance at all of a peace deal by the April 29
deadline, the Obama administration is looking desperately for a way to
keep the talks going on past that date. Presumably, the Palestinians
would have to have some other motivator to stay in the talks, once the
prisoner releases have ended. Israel National News and Jerusalem Post and Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Genghis Khan, Mongol Empire, global warming,
Israel, Palestinians, Mahmoud Abbas, Jen Psaki

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*** 13-Mar-14 World View -- Malaysia accused of coverup over lost MH370 airliner

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Malaysia accused of coverup over lost MH370 airliner
• Israel retaliates for barrage of 40 or more rockets fired from Gaza
• Israel votes to draft ultra-orthodox Jews into the military

****
**** Malaysia accused of coverup over lost MH370 airliner
****


Sand sculpture made by Indian sand artist Sudersan Pattnaik at Puri beach in India (AFP)

The apparent stonewalling and confusion from Malaysia's government and
air force are creating outrage among almost everyone -- the
passengers' families, officials of Vietnam and other countries
participating in the search, and the public in Malaysia, Vietnam and
China. Malaysian authorities have given conflicting information about
things they should know, especially when and where was the plane at
the last time it made contact with anyone. At different times,
Malaysia has said that the last contact occurred one hour after
takeoff or two hours, and the plane was east of Malaysia and then west
of Malaysia. With huge sums of money being spent by numerous
countries to search for the plane, these confusing reports have
meant that valuable time has been lost searching in the wrong
place. At one point, furious Vietnamese officials discontinued
their navy's search efforts for a brief period.

Malaysia is a mostly Muslim country that has a reputation of being
hospitable to jihadist groups, so that they won't be angered and
conduct terrorist attacks on Malaysia. (This is a strategy that's
become a disaster for Pakistan.) So the theory is that Malaysian
officials covered up any information they had because it suggested a
terrorist act, and revealing that would anger whatever jihadist group
perpetrated it.

In my opinion, what is most likely is that Malaysian officials were
not being evil, but that they were simply incompetent. Malaysia Chronicle and CBS and Night Watch

****
**** Israel retaliates for barrage of 40 or more rockets fired from Gaza
****

Islamic Jihad is taking responsibility for a barrage of up to 55-90
rockets fired from Gaza into Israel, some striking urban, civilian
areas, although there were no reports of casualties, in the largest
attack since the brief Israel-Gaza war in 2012 (Operation Pillar of
Defense). The rockets were fired simultaneously from northern and
southern Gaza. Within hours, the Israel Defense Forces retaliated by
striking 29 "terror locations" in Gaza with artillery fire. Jewish Telegraphic Agency

****
**** Israel votes to draft ultra-orthodox Jews into the military
****

For the first time in its history, Israel's Knesset on Tuesday voted
to end the provisions of the controversial "Tal Law" that kept large
numbers of ultra-orthodox men from being drafted into the military.

At Israel's founding in 1948, about 400 exemplary seminary students
were exempted from military service to pursue full-time, subsidized
biblical studies. Today that number has grown to about 100,000
full-time Torah learners of draft age, making up about 10% of Israel's
eligible draftees in what many people are calling a welfare program.
Ultra-orthodox Jews defend their exemptions, saying that they
shouldn't have to serve, since they're already contributing to the
state with their prayers. Arab Israelis have also been exempted, and
they defend their exemptions by claiming that they are treated as
second-class citizens in Israel. Israel's High Court triggered a
political crisis in 2010 when it struck down the so-called Tal Law,
which provides for national service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews
and Arab Israelis. Orthodox Jews will have to begin serving in 2017.
Reports don't indicate the status of Arab Israelis. Jewish Telegraphic Agency and Independent (South Africa)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Malaysia, MH370, Vietnam, China,
Israel, Gaza, Islamic Jihad, Tal Law

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At Israel's founding in 1948, about 400 exemplary seminary students
were exempted from military service to pursue full-time, subsidized
biblical studies.

Consider revising.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Consider revising.

What's wrong with "biblical studies"?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What's wrong with "biblical studies"?

They're not studying the Bible.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

They're not studying the Bible.

Biblical, adjective
1. of or in the Bible
2. in accord with the Bible
3. evocative of or suggesting the Bible or Biblical times

The Bible is the Bible, hence biblical

The Torah is related to the Bible and Biblical times, hence biblical

The Talmud is related to the Bible and Biblical times, hence biblical

Studying the Bible and/or Torah and/or Talmud qualifies as "biblical
studies."

As I understand it, part of studying the Talmud is relating it to the
Old Testament, and so "biblical studies" is a better choice than
"Talmudic studies," which is too narrow for the purpose of this
article, which is focused on drafting people, not the nature of Jewish
studies. "Talmudic studies" would have been OK, however, mainly
because the choice of phrase is almost completely irrelevant to the
article.

Spare me the sophistry, guy. Why not say "Torah Studies", 'cause, you know, they're Jews and not Christians.

*** 14-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares to annex Ukraine's Crimea - and more

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• At Far East end of Russia, Putin upgrades the Pacific Fleet
• Russia prepares to annex Crimea and invade Ukraine
• Panicked Crimeans line up to withdraw cash from banks
• Slovakia becomes the fourth euro zone country in deflation

****
**** At Far East end of Russia, Putin upgrades the Pacific Fleet
****


Armored personnel carries of Marine Corps of Russian Pacific Fleet are heading to shore after landing from an amphibious assault ship. (RT)

After years of neglect, Russia is upgrading and building up its
Pacific fleet, president Vladimir Putin focuses on building up its
eastern Siberian and Far East regions. During his December 12
Presidential Address, Putin said:

<QUOTE>"This is our national priority for the entire 21st
century. ... I am confident that Russia’s reorientation toward the
Pacific Ocean and the dynamic development in all our eastern
territories will not only open up new economic opportunities and
new horizons, but also provide additional instruments for an
active foreign policy"<END QUOTE>

Moscow is becoming increasingly concerned about Russia's Far East,
where population has fallen 50% since the 1990s, allowing migrants
from China to repopulate the region.

In addition to building new logistics vessels, oilers and transport
ships to provide logistical support for extended operations of the
Pacific Fleet in distant seas, Russia is also seeking other
facilities, pursuing negotiations with Vietnam to lease the naval base
in Cam Ranh Bay.

Starting on March 28, Russia will participate in the Komodo 2014
multilateral joint exercise, focusing on naval cooperation
capabilities in disaster relief. It will involve 28 warships and
4,000 personnel from all ten ASEAN members as well as Russia,
Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and the
United States. (The ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,
Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.)

What's notable about this joint exercise is that it will involve
countries with overlapping maritime disputes, including the following:

• India and Pakistan dispute the boundary in Sir Creek estuary
  at the mouth of the Rann of Kutch in the Arabian Sea.
  
• India has maritime boundary claims against Bangladesh.
  
• Indonesia has maritime frontier issues with Timor-Leste,
  Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Palau and Vietnam.
  
• ASEAN member states Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei
  contest Chinese claims over the Spratly Islands.
  
• The Philippines dispute China's assertion of sovereignty over
  Scarborough Reef.
  
• China also occupies some of the Paracel Islands, which are claimed
  by Vietnam.
  
• Russia and Japan contest the Kuril Islands/Northern
  Territories.
  
• China has territorial disputes with India and Japan.

This is occurring as the United States' military begins to pivot 60%
of its forces into the Pacific. Jamestown

****
**** Russia prepares to annex Crimea and invade Ukraine
****

The outcome of Sunday's Crimea referendum on seceding from Ukraine and
joining the Russian Federation as an independent republic seems now to
be a foregone conclusion. Russia's parliament is rushing a special
constitutional amendment to legalize the annexation of Crimea, and
it's expected to be enacted within a day or two. There are Ukrainian
soldiers in Crimea, but their bases have all been blocked by Russian
forces. Anyone who advocates voting against the referendum risks
arrest or being beaten up. Independent media in Moscow have been shut
down or restricted.

On March 4, Russia's president Vladimir Putin stated that "Russia does
not contemplate the possibility of annexing Crimea," but today it
appears that Putin is contemplating more than Crimea, as all signs
indicate that Russia is going beyond Crimea. Russia is increasingly
on a war footing, with a big military buildup along Russia's border
with Ukraine. According to a Ukrainian official in Kiev,

<QUOTE>"[Russian forces include] over 80,000 personnel, up to
270 tanks, 180 armored vehicles, 380 artillery systems, 18
multiple-launch missile systems, 140 combat aircraft, 90 combat
helicopters and 19 warships and cutters. ...

Critical is the situation not only in Crimea, but along the entire
north-eastern frontier. In fact, Russian troop units are two or
three hours of travel from Kiev."<END QUOTE>

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says that the only way out of the
crisis is through diplomacy. Jamestown and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Panicked Crimeans line up to withdraw cash from banks
****

Crimean banks have imposed a withdrawal limit of about $150 per day.
Customers are forming long lines to withdraw cash while they can,
before Sunday's referendum. CNBC/AP

****
**** Slovakia becomes the fourth euro zone country in deflation
****

Slovakia, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus are now in deflation.

Consumer prices in Slovakia fell 0.1% in February, on a monthly and
yearly basis. According to a central bank official, the fall in
prices is caused by low food prices and low demand.

In Portugal, prices fell by a monthly 0.3% after a 1.4% drop in
January. In Greece and Cyprus price declines are above 1%.

Other Eurozone peripheral countries remain on the cusp of falling
prices, with annual consumer inflation running at just 0.1% in Spain,
0.2% in Ireland and 0.5% in Italy. Cihan (Turkey) and EuroIntelligence



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Pacific Fleet, Vladimir Putin, Far East,
Vietnam, Cam Ranh Bay, ASEAN, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Paracel Islands,
Spratly Islands, Kuril Islands, Ukraine, Crimea,
Russian Federation, Slovakia, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus

Permanent web link to this article
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Moscow is becoming increasingly concerned about Russia's Far East,
where population has fallen 50% since the 1990s, allowing migrants
from China to repopulate the region.

Still waiting on evidence of the place actually being repopulated by Chinese people.

Currently US troops face Russian troops across a stretch of ocean in Alaska, and, in a minor way in Poland, along the frontier with Kaliningrad. If Russia invades Ukraine en masse and occupies it completely, we will face them along a substantial front. No doubt, a Russian invasion of the core portion of Ukraine would be met with reestablishment of the NATO forward deployments we had during the Cold War, albeit further east. Rszeszow would be the new Fulda. Back to the Future ...

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Still waiting on evidence of the place actually being repopulated by Chinese people.

Russia is beefing up the Pacific fleet in order to partner with the PRC not to fight it. Russia could help with denial operations to try and keep US and Allied fleets out of the hot zone around the South China Sea and SE Asia when the SHTF.

XYMOX,

Agree with you almost completely. I don't doubt there are tensions in the Russo-Chinese relationship, but for now the battle lines are being drawn elsewhere.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the referendum / annexation. And let's not forget that Iran is still out there. The temporary agreement we have with them expires in May, and negotiations are still kind of limping along on the backburner. Or NK gearing up to test weapons. Israeli / Palestinian "negotiations" are falling apart, too.

It's shaping up to be an interesting year.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... It's shaping up to be an interesting year.

... as the Chinese would say.

*** 15-Mar-14 World View -- Kerry threatens sanctions against Russia, but 'nothing personal'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kerry threatens sanctions against Russia, but 'nothing personal'
• Germany's Angela Merkel warns of a 'catastrophe' and sanction war
• Saudi cleric issues fatwa against all-you-can-eat buffets

****
**** Kerry threatens sanctions against Russia, but 'nothing personal'
****


Lavrov and Kerry on Friday (EPA)

On Sunday, Ukraine's Crimea peninsula will hold a Russian-sponsored
referendum on whether Crimea should secede from Ukraine and join the
Russian Federation. With thousands of Russian troops in Crimea,
blockading all Ukrainian troops and arresting or beating anyone who
demonstrates against the referendum, it's pretty much a foregone
conclusion that the referendum will pass. Russia's Duma is preparing
a constitutional change that will allow Crimea to join the Russian
Federation.

With tens of thousands of Russian troops in Russia along the border
with eastern Ukraine, there is widespread fear that Russia will invade
the rest of Ukraine. Since Ukraine supplies almost all of the fresh
water, electricity, gas and food that Crimea consumes, Russia's
president Vladimir Putin may well justify an invasion as being
necessary to guarantee that these supplies reach Crimea.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov, who apparently have become BFFs, met for six hours on
Friday, ending in disagreement. Lavrov said:

<QUOTE>"As to practical measures foreign countries could
take, we do not share a common view of the situation,
disagreements remain but, of course, the conversation was useful.

Russia has and can have no plans to invade southeastern regions of
Ukraine. We assume that the rights of Russians, the rights of
Hungarians, the rights of Bulgarians and Ukrainians should
definitely be ensured and should be protected. ...

We have confirmed our stance stipulated repeatedly by the Russian
president that we will respect the declaration of the will of the
Crimean people during the coming referendum of March 16. ...

I'll be bold enough to assure you that sanctions are a
counter-productive instrument and if such a decision is taken in
Western capitals, it means it will be their decision. One thing
for sure is that this will not help mutual interests, business
interests, the interests of our partnership in
general."<END QUOTE>

At the same press conference after the meeting, Kerry warned of "very
serious" consequences if Russia uses the referendum as a "back-door
annexation" of Crimea, including almost immediate economic sanctions
against Russia, including travel restrictions and asset seizures of
private Russian businessmen and officials close to Russian President
Vladimir Putin. Kerry said:

<QUOTE>"After much discussion, the foreign minister made it
clear that President Putin is not prepared to make any decision
regarding Ukraine until after the referendum on Sunday.

If the referendum takes place, there will be some sanctions.
There will be some response, let me put it that way.

I think, in fairness, Foreign Minister Lavrov is going to report
that proposal back to President Putin as he did all of the
proposals that we put on the table this afternoon. President
Putin will be well aware of all the options.

We are prepared to respect his interests and rights and they can
be fully respected.

We hope President Putin will recognize that none of what we’re
saying is meant as a threat, it’s not meant in a personal
way."<END QUOTE>

So the threat of sanctions is not a threat, and it's nothing personal.
Voice of Russia and ABC News

****
**** Germany's Angela Merkel warns of a 'catastrophe' and sanction war
****

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel was not nearly as circumspect
as John Kerry. According to Merkel:

<QUOTE>If Russia continues down the course of the past weeks,
it would not only be a catastrophe for Ukraine.

It would not only change the relationship of the European Union as
a whole with Russia. No, this would also cause massive damage to
Russia, economically and politically."<END QUOTE>

The first round of sanctions have already been announced --
postponement of various meetings.

If a second round is necessary, high-ranking Russian officials will
face EU visa restrictions and their EU-based bank accounts will be
frozen.

The third round, if necessary, might freeze the assets and bank
accounts of politicians, civil servants and military personnel,
possibly to include Russian businessmen.

In response, Russia has threatened to "seize property, assets and
accounts of companies in the United States and the countries that
adopt the sanctions against us," according to a Russian official.
Russia could also cancel big contracts with European companies. For
example, Moscow could drop its proposed purchase of French naval
helicopter carriers.

Some reports suggest that Russia is transferring its Treasury bond
holdings out of the Fed, in order to protect them from an asset
freeze. Deutsche Welle and Deutsche Welle and WSJ

****
**** Saudi cleric issues fatwa against all-you-can-eat buffets
****

A Saudi cleric named Saleh al-Fawzan has issued fatwa against
all-you-can-eat buffets in Saudi Arabia. "Whoever enters the buffet
and eats for 10 or 50 riyals without deciding the quantity they will
eat is violating Sharia (Islamic) law," he said. Twitter users mocked
the fatwa mercilessly: "What is going on in this world?! i am
speechless really! Fatwa prohibits 'All You Can Eat' offers" and
"Fatwa against all-you-can-eat buffets. You can't even parody this
stuff. And we're supposed to respect it?" International Business Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Vladimir Putin,
John Kerry, Sergei Lavrov, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Saudi Arabia, Saleh al-Fawzan

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