While we go through the motions of a diplomacy and sanctions approach, there are serious military movements afoot to the West of Ukraine. I don't recall anything like it during my lifetime. Able Archer came the closest but I don't recall that including columns of troops and armor heading east. Granted in the current case most of the men and materiel are not US, they are mostly Polish with lesser numbers of other NATO forces. Nonetheless, there is a very serious feeling to this. The good news is I am not seeing any "peace in our time" bullshit. I think maybe we have actually learned a thing or two from the previous two world wars.

I don't think that Russia would cancel the Mistral purchases if they chose confrontation. Closing the Northern Distribution network? Entirely possible.

*** 16-Mar-14 World View -- Ukraine mobilizes troops to oppose Russian troops attacking gas facility

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine mobilizes troops to oppose Russian troops attacking gas facility
• China abstains on anti-Russia Security Council resolution
• Russia faces biggest anti-Putin protest in two years
• China lambastes Malaysia for withholding MH370 flight information

****
**** Ukraine mobilizes troops to oppose Russian troops attacking gas facility
****


Moscow sees the biggest anti-Putin demonstrations in years (AP)

Ukrainian troops have been mobilized to oppose a Russian armed force
attacking a gas facility in Ukraine's mainland, north of Crimea. The
armed force consists of 80 Russian troops, backed by four helicopter
gunships and armored vehicles. This comes amidst reports that
the Russian military is moving surface to air missiles into
Crimea.

Ukraine supplies almost all of the fresh water, electricity, gas and
food that Crimea consumes, and so this may be only the first of
several Russian invasions of the Ukraine mainland to secure Ukrainian
facilities that supply these things.

A Russian official is justifying the invasion to guard against
"terrorists," which is the code word used by Russia's president
Vladimir Putin and by Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar
al-Assad whenever either of them wants to use military force to
exterminate an ethnic group. Telegraph (London) and AP

****
**** China abstains on anti-Russia Security Council resolution
****

As expected, Russia exercised its veto on Saturday on a resolution
that declares Sunday's Russian-sponsored secession referendum in
Crimea as having "no validity." The United States was among 13
members that affirmed the resolution. The interesting case was China,
which has stood by Russia in vetoing any resolution that even mildly
criticized Syria's Bashar al-Assad. In this case, China abstained.

As I wrote last week in "10-Mar-14 World View -- Ukraine - Russia crisis presents problems for China"
, because any secessionist resolution that
China approved might apply to secessionist provinces in China --
Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan. So China was forced to abstain, leaving
Russia completed isolated on its invasion of Ukraine.

After the Russian veto, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Samantha
Power, said that the veto would not change the aspirations and destiny
of the Ukrainian people:

<QUOTE>"Nor can it change Crimea’s status. Crimea is part of
Ukraine today; it will be part of Ukraine tomorrow; it will be
part of Ukraine next week; it will be part of Ukraine unless and
until its status is changed in accordance with Ukrainian and
international law."<END QUOTE>

VOA

****
**** Russia faces biggest anti-Putin protest in two years
****

Some 30,000 protesters demonstrated in Moscow on Saturday against
Russia's president Vladimir Putin, for the biggest anti-Putin protest
in two years. The Ukraine invasion is the trigger for the protests,
but they also protested against rising corruption, political
repression and censorship under Putin.

However, an even bigger pro-Putin demonstration is expected on Sunday.
Putin's increasingly nationalistic agenda is appealing to the public,
giving Putin an approval rating at 70%. In a recent poll, two-thirds
said they believed that not only Crimea but also mostly
Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine were "in essence" Russian lands.

Still, the large protest represents the second embarrassment, along
with China's Security Council abstention, for Putin on Saturday.
Putin had hoped that Russia would experience continuing good will from
last month's Olympics games in Sochi, but whatever good will was
gained has now been dissipated. Reuters

****
**** China lambastes Malaysia for withholding MH370 flight information
****

As one of China's neighbors in the South China Sea, where China is
using its military might to confiscate properties that have belonged
to other nations for centuries, China and Malaysia have already had a
minor but tense military confrontation. ( "29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal"
from January.)

So it's not surprising that China is furious with Malaysia over the
investigation of the disappearance of flight MH370, which was
traveling from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing carrying mostly Chinese
passengers. According to a Saturday editorial from Xinhua:

<QUOTE>"At a press conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysian
Prime Minister Najib Razak revealed a trove of new information
that virtually made the massive rummage in South China Sea for the
Boeing 777 aircraft and the 239 people on board a huge waste of
valuable time and resources. ...

But it is undeniable that the disclosure of such vital information
is painfully belated -- more than seven excruciating days after
the 227 passengers and 12 crew members lost contact with their
beloved relatives and friends.

And due to the absence -- or at least lack -- of timely
authoritative information, massive efforts have been squandered,
and numerous rumors have been spawned, repeatedly racking the
nerves of the awaiting families.

Given today's technology, the delay smacks of either dereliction
of duty or reluctance to share information in a full and timely
manner. That would be intolerable.

As the leader of the international search and rescue mission,
Malaysia bears inescapable responsibility. Other parties that
possess valuable data and information, including plane maker
Boeing, engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce and intelligence
superpower the United States, should also have done a better job.
...

With time ticking away and the fate of Flight MH370 still shrouded
in mystery, it is vital and imperative that the Malaysian side
work more thoroughly and efficiently and other major information
holders -- not least the Unites States -- be more open and
forthcoming."<END QUOTE>

It's somewhat laughable that China, with one of the most opaque
governments in the world, is demanding that the United States be "more
open and forthcoming." We wish that China would also be more open and
forthcoming, especially about its preparations for a preemptive
military attack on the United States. Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Crimea,
Vladimir Putin, China, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Samantha Power, Malaysia, MH370, Najib Razak

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

A Russian official is justifying the invasion to guard against
"terrorists," which is the code word used by Russia's president
Vladimir Putin and by Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar
al-Assad whenever either of them wants to use military force to
exterminate an ethnic group.

The term certainly gets bandied about a lot. Out of curiosity, could you name an ethnic group that Putin has exterminated? Assad, for that matter. Which "ethnic group" has he exterminated?

As I wrote last week in "10-Mar-14 World View -- Ukraine - Russia crisis presents problems for China"
, because any secessionist resolution that
China approved might apply to secessionist provinces in China --
Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan. So China was forced to abstain, leaving
Russia completed isolated on its invasion of Ukraine.

You're badly mixing references here. Tibet and Xiniang are presently provinces of China that have secessionist sentiment. Taiwan on the other hand is not presently under their control. Really, the precedent that looks like it is being established in Crimea might even justify a Chinese annexation of Taiwan. At the very least, it puts the credibility of American security guarantees into question.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> The term certainly gets bandied about a lot. Out of curiosity,
> could you name an ethnic group that Putin has exterminated?
> Assad, for that matter. Which "ethnic group" has he
> exterminated?

Genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad says he's defending himself against
"terrorists" when he bombs innocent women and children with barrel
bombs, sarin gas, and any other heavy weapons he can get his hands on
from Russia, in his campaign to exterminate all Sunnis in Syria.
Assad is a war criminal and so is Vladimir Putin, for supplying
weapons to Assad. Putin also says that they're just for fighting
"terrorists," which is his code word.

Now war criminal Putin is saying that Russia has to protect Russian
civilians in Ukraine from "terrorists" and "Nazis," which is his code
word for Ukrainians, who apparently are the next target for Putin's
extermination campaign.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> You're badly mixing references here. Tibet and Xiniang are
> presently provinces of China that have secessionist
> sentiment. Taiwan on the other hand is not presently under their
> control. Really, the precedent that looks like it is being
> established in Crimea might even justify a Chinese annexation of
> Taiwan. At the very least, it puts the credibility of American
> security guarantees into question.

You're taking the parochial American mainstream media point of view.
From Beijing's point of view, Taiwan is a province of China.

As for American security guarantees, the Obama administration has
already brought them into question throughout the world. In fact,
there's a large body of opinion that believes that under the Obama
administration they're a joke.

Genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad says he's defending himself against
"terrorists" when he bombs innocent women and children with barrel
bombs, sarin gas, and any other heavy weapons he can get his hands on
from Russia, in his campaign to exterminate all Sunnis in Syria.
Assad is a war criminal and so is Vladimir Putin, for supplying
weapons to Assad. Putin also says that they're just for fighting
"terrorists," which is his code word.

Now war criminal Putin is saying that Russia has to protect Russian
civilians in Ukraine from "terrorists" and "Nazis," which is his code
word for Ukrainians, who apparently are the next target for Putin's
extermination campaign.

So, no actual examples then. You do realize the majority of Assad's army is Sunni, right?

And I take it you are also denying that radical nationalists are involved in the 2014 Revolution? Names like Right Sector, White Hammer, and Svoboda (Originally the Social-Nationalist Party) should give you a clue.

Stop taking the parochial American mainstream media point of view. The world is not solely painted in black and white. Your allies are not always good guys. Not all adversaries are Hitler.

Fucking Boomers, man.

You're taking the parochial American mainstream media point of view.
From Beijing's point of view, Taiwan is a province of China.

Yes, but not one under their control, which is why the precedent of moving troops into a neighboring region filled with your ethnic kin and presenting it as a fait accompli in the face of impotent Western opposition isn't on​e the Chinese are likely to mind, is it?

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> And I take it you are also denying that radical nationalists are
> involved in the 2014 Revolution? Names like Right Sector, White
> Hammer, and Svoboda (Originally the Social-Nationalist Party)
> should give you a clue. ... Fucking Boomers, man.

And so, under your naive, childlike, Generation-X reasoning, Turkey
has a perfect right to invade Germany, because some Turkish citizens
have been attacked by neo-Nazi groups, so Turkey has the right to
"protect Turkish citizens" from the neo-Nazis. In fact, by your Gen-X
reasoning, any country whose citizens are attacked by any terrorists
in any other country has a right to invade that country, to "protect
its citizens" from "the terrorists."

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Stop taking the parochial American mainstream media point of
> view. The world is not solely painted in black and white. Your
> allies are not always good guys. Not all adversaries are
> Hitler.

Exactly who are you claiming are my allies? You Gen-Xers are so
delusional about Boomers that you have to fantasize Boomers' motives,
and then attack your own fantasies.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Yes, but not one under their control, which is why the precedent
> of moving troops into a neighboring region filled with your ethnic
> kin and presenting it as a fait accompli in the face of impotent
> Western opposition isn't on the Chinese are likely to mind, is
> it?

Spare me the sophistry, guy.

Lol, born in 1986, dude.

And so, under your naive, childlike, Generation-X reasoning, Turkey
has a perfect right to invade Germany, because some Turkish citizens
have been attacked by neo-Nazi groups, so Turkey has the right to
"protect Turkish citizens" from the neo-Nazis. In fact, by your Gen-X
reasoning, any country whose citizens are attacked by any terrorists
in any other country has a right to invade that country, to "protect
its citizens" from "the terrorists."

No, I was pointing out that your claims of "exterminating an ethnic group" don't have any backing. You really have to learn to keep to the thread of an argument for more than one post. The previous posts are still there, you can look back at them if you get confused.

Exactly who are you claiming are my allies?

Sunni Syrians and Ukrainian nationalists. I thought that was clear.

You Gen-Xers are so
delusional about Boomers that you have to fantasize Boomers' motives,
and then attack your own fantasies.

Under the circumstances, this is extraordinarily funny. Bravo!

Spare me the sophistry, guy.

Hey, you can keep pretending that Russia and China are going to go to war any day now. We'll see how things actually turn out.

Haven't seen a big break between Russia and China over this, yet. Just the opposite, in fact.

You can blame me for taking a shortcut and referring to the Sunnis as
an "ethnic group," but the fact that there are Sunnis in Alawite/Shia
Assad's army doesn't change the fact that he and Putin are conducting
a campaign to exterminate as much of the civilian Sunni population as
they can. Assad and Putin may well think of the Sunnis in the army as
"useful idiots" that idiots and Assad/Putin sycophants in the West can
point to.

As for, "Not all adversaries are Hitler," you and Putin are the ones
screaming Nazi, not me.

Lol, born in 1986, dude.

Some Millennials have the sense to listen to what Boomers are saying,
while others just follow the nihilistic, destructive, self-destructive
path laid out by Gen-Xers.

> Hey, you can keep pretending that Russia and China are going to go
> to war any day now. We'll see how things actually turn out.

> Haven't seen a big break between Russia and China over this,
> yet. Just the opposite, in fact.

Peace in our time.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

And so, under your naive, childlike, Generation-X reasoning, Turkey
has a perfect right to invade Germany, because some Turkish citizens
have been attacked by neo-Nazi groups, so Turkey has the right to
"protect Turkish citizens" from the neo-Nazis. In fact, by your Gen-X
reasoning, any country whose citizens are attacked by any terrorists
in any other country has a right to invade that country, to "protect
its citizens" from "the terrorists."

He's to childish and naive to be a middle aged X'er.

You can blame me for taking a shortcut and referring to the Sunnis as
an "ethnic group," but the fact that there are Sunnis in Alawite/Shia
Assad's army doesn't change the fact that he and Putin are conducting
a campaign to exterminate as much of the civilian Sunni population as
they can. Assad and Putin may well think of the Sunnis in the army as
"useful idiots" that idiots and Assad/Putin sycophants in the West can
point to.

Assad is certainly repressing a rebellion, and aggravated ethnic tensions to keep the (minority) Alawites, Kurds, and Christians in line. Plenty of Sunnis in the leadership, in the business community of Damascus, and in the Army. Is it a happy Socialist Utopia? Of course not, but there is zero evidence of actual "genocide" against Sunnis, as opposed to mere war. Words have meaning, dude.

As for what he and Putin "may" think, you "may" be talking out of your ass on that one.

Still not hearing any evidence about Putin "exterminating" the Ukrainians. How many of them has he killed so far?

Some Millennials have the sense to listen to what Boomers are saying,
while others just follow the nihilistic, destructive, self-destructive
path laid out by Gen-Xers.

Hey, if you, GWB, Eric, Clinton, and PBrower are examples of the Boomer path, I'll take my chances elsewhere, thank you very much.

Peace in our time.

Nope, far from it. You've just got the sides wrong.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad says he's defending himself against
"terrorists" when he bombs innocent women and children with barrel
bombs, sarin gas, and any other heavy weapons he can get his hands on
from Russia, in his campaign to exterminate all Sunnis in Syria.
Assad is a war criminal and so is Vladimir Putin, for supplying
weapons to Assad. Putin also says that they're just for fighting
"terrorists," which is his code word.

"Jordangoodspeed" is a troll. You might as well ignore him. He is grossly ignorant, rhetorically cruel, or utterly stupid -- if not some combination. With me he has exploited some banter that exposes some personal misfortune among friends as grist for a barrage of insults.

There's nothing wrong with Bashir Assad that a well-tied rope and a seven-foot drop wouldn't solve. So too I say of his closest associates and his brutal enforcers. Ba'athism is a totalitarian ideology in the same league with fascism, Nazism, and Communism, and the world will be far better when that horrid ideology is completely extirpated. If you are familiar with Dante's Inferno... I once said that there would be a need for a new bolgia just for Nazis and Stalinists, the most egregious sinners of all time. To that bolgia I would add Ba'athist thugs as sinners as horrible as Nazis and Stalinists that Dante could have never known or imagined.

It's a very good thing that the elder Bush did his share to stop Saddam Hussein at the earliest stage of his effort to establish hegemony over the Arabian Peninsula. Ba'athism could have become as much a menace to world peace as Communism ever was.

I have been cautious about condemning Vladimir Putin. He has tried to re-establish Russian pride in their nation and culture without finding religious, racial, or ethnic scapegoats. If I were the leader of Russia I too would do that. I dislike his economics, but we need remember the heritage of Russia; it is not and never has been anything like a libertarian or democratic-socialist paradise. He has a huge moral gap -- and supporting a genocidal butcher like Assad fils by supplying him with the tools of mass murder makes him culpable in the atrocities of Assad fils.

Now ...l Putin is saying that Russia has to protect Russian
civilians in Ukraine from "terrorists" and "Nazis," which is his code
word for Ukrainians, who apparently are the next target for Putin's
extermination campaign.

Possible interpretation: that Putin seeks to re-establish the geographic structure of either the Tsarist Empire or the Soviet Union out of a nostalgia that many Russians have. Ukraine is not the largest piece of former Soviet territory (Kazakhstan is much bigger) or the former realm of the Tsarist Russia (Alaska is bigger, and Ukraine was never fully under the control of Imperial Russia or the Soviet Union until 1945)... but it was the breadbasket and a major industrial area of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union.

If you notice, Russian forces took over a chunk of territory by force and then have held a snap election or referendum to ratify the acquisition. Anyone who expects the referendum in Crimea to be a free and fair election should recognize the pattern of the Soviet takeover of western Ukraine, western Belarus, and the Bialystok region of recently-dismembered Poland in the autumn of 1939 -- the troops moved, mass rallies for incorporation were organized, and people voted for annexation. That is how Stalin got Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to 'voluntarily' surrender their independence in 1940. Stalin did much the same with those pieces of interwar Czechoslovakia and Romania grafted onto the Ukrainian SSR after World War II. Vladimir Putin knows the pattern well. Heck, if he were to get a hold of Alaska one could expect an election in which 'incorporation into the Russian federation and severance of all ties to the United States of America' would get over 90% of the vote. Adults would know how to vote -- if they didn't want to lose their jobs, pensions, bank balances, real estate, shares of oil revenue, or personal assets.

Ukraine was the Jewel in the Crown for the Russian Empire... and the second-most-important Soviet Republic. The style may differ some this time. Ukraine is one of the biggest exporters of foodstuffs in Europe; it also possesses huge mineral and industrial resources. As an economic free agent, Ukraine could be another France. As part of a Greater Russia that has an odd mixture of Tsarist and Soviet practices, Ukraine makes such an entity even more powerful while being degraded economically.

(The troll is) taking the parochial American mainstream media point of view.
From Beijing's point of view, Taiwan is a province of China.

Little connection at all. Mainland leadership has been very cautious. It now dots the i's and crosses the t's before doing anything that might step on the sovereignty of another country -- even asking for extradition of pirates who murdered Chinese merchant sailors through the usual formalities. (The pirates have been convicted and executed). But that works. I suspect that the People's Republic of China will try to cut a deal with Taiwan... special economic zone with the recognition of its political system on the condition that the Communist Party be legalized and allowed to participate in free elections. An SEZ as with Hong Kong or Macau?

I can only wonder whether China would be suited to some federalization of its political structure. The second-largest country in population to have a unitary state is Indonesia and third largest is Japan. The second-largest unitary state in area is Kazakhstan. India, the US, Russia, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Germany have federal systems.

As for American security guarantees, the Obama administration has
already brought them into question throughout the world. In fact,
there's a large body of opinion that believes that under the Obama
administration they're a joke.

That is said of any American administration that doesn't rattle sabers as did Ronald Reagan.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> As for what he and Putin "may" think, you "may" be talking out of your ass on that one.

I think I've had enough of your crap for one day.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I think I've had enough of your crap for one day.

It must be tough to have people disagree with you. Oh well, I look forward to the next missive on the millions of Chinese people in the Russia Far East, the Hausa militant group Boko Haram, the Ukrainian gas chambers, and the impending war of Iran, Russia, and the West versus China and the Arabs.

Cheers.

Some more thoughts on the Crimean precedent with regards to China.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Assad is certainly repressing a rebellion, and aggravated ethnic tensions to keep the (minority) Alawites, Kurds, and Christians in line. Plenty of Sunnis in the leadership, in the business community of Damascus, and in the Army. Is it a happy Socialist Utopia? Of course not, but there is zero evidence of actual "genocide" against Sunnis, as opposed to mere war. Words have meaning, dude.

An unjust war often brings genocide.

As for what he and Putin "may" think, you (vulgarity deleted).

Xenakis may be wrong, but that is possible when anyone goes into speculation about events. Such is so with me,too.

But note well: I try to be agreeable when I disagree.

Still not hearing any evidence about Putin "exterminating" the Ukrainians. How many of them has he killed so far?

Mercifully, Putin seems not to kill directly.

Hey, if you, GWB, Eric, Clinton, and PBrower are examples of the Boomer path, I'll take my chances elsewhere, thank you very much.

There is no single "Boomer path". I have frequently condemned the incompetence, corruption, and dishonesty of George W. Bush and people around him. That includes Karl Rove, Tom DeLay, Newt Gingrich, Jack Abramoff, Dennis Hastert, and Rick Santorum -- not to mention journalistic hacks like Rush Limbaugh and most of Dubya's cronies at Enrob Corporation.

You are out of your league, punk. I'd tell you to grow up -- but people rarely do much maturing around age 27 or 28 as you claim to be.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> Possible interpretation: that Putin seeks to re-establish the
> geographic structure of either the Tsarist Empire or the Soviet
> Union out of a nostalgia that many Russians have. Ukraine is not
> the largest piece of former Soviet territory (Kazakhstan is much
> bigger) or the former realm of the Tsarist Russia (Alaska is
> bigger, and Ukraine was never fully under the control of Imperial
> Russia or the Soviet Union until 1945)... but it was the
> breadbasket and a major industrial area of Tsarist Russia and the
> Soviet Union.

I would have more sympathy for Putin, but my opinion of him is
strongly colored by my overwhelming disgust for al-Assad's actions and
Putin's support. As I've said in the past, it's like the TV show
"Criminal Minds," which dwells on scenes of rape, torture and
mutilation. But al-Assad and Putin are performing "Criminal Minds"
scripts on an "industrial strength" scale, which I really do ascribe
to psychopathy and sociopathy on the part of both of them. It goes
well beyond what you can ascribe to even a totalitarian ideology like
Ba'athism, in my opinion.

So when I hear Putin say that he's going to protect Russian citizens
from "terrorists" (i.e., Ukrainians), it takes me back to the
beginning of the Syrian civil war, and I feel we're going down the
same path. And, indeed, everything that Putin has done in the last
few weeks has gone down that path. Until Putin does something
different, I'm going to assume the worst.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> That is said of any American administration that doesn't rattle
> sabers as did Ronald Reagan.

Did that happen in the Clinton administration? I don't recall. A lot
of Obama's problem is that Kerry is totally incompetent.

An unjust war often brings genocide

But is an unjust war necessarily genocide? Was the war in Iraq a genocide? The War in Vietnam?

Can you perceive the difference? Are Bashar Assad's men trying to exterminate the Sunnis, or are they trying to suppress them. Either way, he's a dictator and culpable for the death of over a hundred thousand people, but again, words have meaning.

As for Putin, as you yourself acknowledged above, whatever you may think of his actions in Ukraine, there isn't really any evidence of genocide, is there? The incursions by Russian troops have all been largely bloodless, thus far.

There is no single "Boomer path". I have frequently condemned the incompetence, corruption, and dishonesty of George W. Bush and people around him. That includes Karl Rove, Tom DeLay, Newt Gingrich, Jack Abramoff, Dennis Hastert, and Rick Santorum -- not to mention journalistic hacks like Rush Limbaugh and most of Dubya's cronies at Enrob Corporation.

Certainly. So there isn't any Gen X-er path either, is there? Nor are "Boomers" as a whole "saying" anything.

You are out of your league, punk.

Sounds like I am getting a free ride in that head of yours. It's pleasing to see you acting like a person, though. The first few times I interacted with you it was one long polemic after another. The very first time i spoke with you you went on a rant about the Boomer Elite and alcoholism that you acknowledged was driven by your frustration about gout preventing you from having a glass of wine. It's a little crankish, guy.

Are you going to continue acting like this, or should I expect your personality to click off and have you go back to posting threads on "How Rednecks are Stupid, Evil, and Destroyed My Life"?

Bah, I missed these:

Xenakis may be wrong, but that is possible when anyone goes into speculation about events. Such is so with me,too.

One should probably avoid asserting that one's speculations are incontrovertible fact then. As Xenakis did above.

But note well: I try to be agreeable when I disagree.

To be honest, you're more apt to ignore people who disagree with you, or acknowledge and repeat their arguments back to them without actually seeing if that changes the point you're making. Which is cool, I guess, if your point is to post rant after rant in an effort to work through your personal issues, but it doesn't really foster debate.

Mercifully, Putin seems not to kill directly.

What does this even mean? If you mean he doesn't kill people with his own hands, then you're probably (though I have no way of knowing for sure) right. Then again, neither does Assad (with above caveat).

Is this what you're actually trying to say, or something else? 'Cause if this is it, I don't really see how it answers the question.

Did that happen in the Clinton administration? I don't recall. A lot
of Obama's problem is that Kerry is totally incompetent.

I think Obama's foreign problems started before Kerry.

That doesn't mean I think he's a competent secretary of state.

*** 17-Mar-14 World View -- Russia and the West plan their next steps after Crimea referendum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Islamic Jihad gaining popularity over Hamas in Gaza
• Western politicians express outrage as Crimea votes to join Russia
• Russia and the West plan their next steps after Crimea referendum

****
**** Islamic Jihad gaining popularity over Hamas in Gaza
****


Islamic Jihad

Although Hamas is the governing authority in Gaza, last week's rocket
barrage from Gaza into Israel came from Islamic Jihad, not from Hamas.
Hamas has been losing popularity, and Hamas's loss has been Islamic
Jihad's gain.

Hamas has faced a variety of problems in recent months:

• Hamas used to have its headquarters in Damascus, Syria,
  but when the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad began
  exterminating Sunni women and children, Hamas split from Syria,
  and was forced to move its headquarters to Doha, Qatar.
  
• Hamas's biggest financial backer used to be Iran, which
  provided $20 million per month, in addition to weapons. When
  Hamas split with Iran's ally Syria, Iran split with Hamas,
  and now funds Islamic Jihad.
  
• Hamas was formed over 30 years ago as an offshot of Egypt's Muslim
  Brotherhood, so when Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood came to
  power in Egypt in June of 2012, Hamas rejoiced. But after the
  military ousted Morsi and declared MB to be a terrorist organization,
  Hamas's relationship with Egypt has become extremely contentious.
  Egypt has declared Hamas to be a terrorist organization, and the army
  has incessantly worked to destroy the smuggling tunnels between Gaza
  and Egypt.
  
• Other countries and organizations that used to support Hamas
  can no longer do so as well. Turkey used to provide political
  and economic support, but prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is
  mired in political corruption allegations.
  
• The Gulf States used to provide support, but they're
  split into two factions, the Saudi Arabian faction
  fighting against MB, and the Qatar faction supporting MB.
  
• Lebanon's terrorist group Hezbollah used to ally with Hamas in the
  "resistance" against Israel, but Hezbollah is bogged down fighting in
  Syria as an ally of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Even worse, the Syrian
  civil war has spilled over into a Shia/Sunni conflict within
  Lebanon.

The result is that the Gaza economy is in freefall along with Hamas's
popularity. The wages of most government employees haven’t been paid
for months, there are shortages of fuel, electricity, building
materials, and some basic foodstuffs. Gazans are turning to Islamic
Jihad as the "hope and change" terrorist group. In the meantime,
Islamic Jihad has been arming for a future war with Israel. Israel Hayom and Fox News

****
**** Western politicians express outrage as Crimea votes to join Russia
****

Jubilant citizens in Lenin Square in Crimea's capital Simferopol
celebrated Sunday's referendum on secession from Ukraine, where
Crimeans voted more than 95% in favor of seceding to join the Russian
Federation.

According to Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague"

<QUOTE>"Nothing in the way that the referendum has been
conducted should convince anyone that it is a legitimate exercise.

The referendum has taken place at 10 days' notice, without a
proper campaign or public debate, with the political leaders of
the country being unable to visit Crimea, and in the presence of
many thousands of troops from a foreign country. It is a mockery
of proper democratic practice.

The UK does not recognise the referendum or its outcome, in common
with the majority of the international community."<END QUOTE>

France's president François Hollande said Saturday that if there is no
"de-escalation" in Ukraine, there will be "sanctions" Monday the EU
against Russia:

<QUOTE>"It is a 'pseudo referendum' in the Crimea because it
does not conform to the Ukrainian domestic law and international
law. This is why France and the European Union will not recognize
the validity of this pseudo referendum."<END QUOTE>

According to Canada's prime minister Stephen Harper:

<QUOTE>"The so-called referendum held today was conducted
with Crimea under illegal military occupation. Its results are a
reflection of nothing more than Russian military control.

This 'referendum' is illegitimate, it has no legal effect, and we
do not recognize its outcome. Canada is working with other
countries on the possibility of further sanctions."<END QUOTE>

President Barack Obama telephoned Russia's President Vladimir Putin on
Sunday saying the U.S. and allies "prepared to impose additional costs
on Russia for its actions." According to the White House:

<QUOTE>"We reject the 'referendum' that took place today in
the Crimean region of Ukraine. This referendum is contrary to
Ukraine's constitution, and the international community will not
recognize the results of a poll administered under threats of
violence and intimidation. ...

President Obama reiterated that a diplomatic resolution cannot be
achieved while Russian military forces continue their incursions
into Ukrainian territory and that the large-scale Russian military
exercises on Ukraine’s borders only exacerbate the
tension."<END QUOTE>

AFP and La Tribune (France) and BBC and NBC News and Canadian Press

****
**** Russia and the West plan their next steps after Crimea referendum
****

European Union leaders, supported by President Obama, plan to meet on
Monday in Brussels to decide on sanctions. If Russia takes no further
action, it's possible that the whole sanction regime will be abandon
and things will go back to business as usual, with Crimea's secession
a fait accompli. However, it seems very likely that Russia
will take further action.

The first and most logical action would seem to be the annexation
of Crimea by the Russian Federation. However, some analysts say
that may not be the most likely first step.

Most people seem to agree that Russia's president Vladimir Putin wants
to rebuild the Soviet/Russian empire, and wants all of Ukraine, not
just Crimea. According to this logic, Putin would hold off annexing
Crimea until he could launch a full invasion first of eastern Ukraine,
then all of Ukraine, pushing west all the way across Ukraine to the
border of Moldova, and its secessionist province Transnistria.
NBC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Saudia Arabia, Qatar,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hezbollah, Iran,
Britain, William Hague, France, François Hollande,
Canada, Stephen Harper, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Transnistria, Moldova

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*** 18-Mar-14 World View -- Does Iran's anti-nuclear fatwa really exist, as claimed?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Putin declares Crimea to be a 'sovereign and independent state'
• Does Iran's anti-nuclear fatwa really exist, as claimed?
• U.S. special forces capture pirate Libyan oil tanker in Mediterranean

****
**** Russia's Putin declares Crimea to be a 'sovereign and independent state'
****


Girl celebrates referendum victory on Sunday in Lenin Square in Simferopol, the capital city of Crimea (Telegraph)

As expected, Russia will not immediately annex Crimea, despite
the fact that Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to do so on Sunday.
According to the decree signed on Monday by president
Vladimir Putin:

<QUOTE>"Considering the will of the peoples of Crimea
expressed at the all-Crimea referendum on March 16, 2014, I hereby
decree that the Republic of Crimea, where the city of Sevastopol
has a special status, be recognized as a sovereign and independent
state."<END QUOTE>

This is similar to what Russia did in 2008, after Russia invaded
Georgia. Russia took control of two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, but did not officially annex them to Russia. The
annexation thus was "de facto," not "de jure."

In the case of Georgia, international outrage settled down within a
few months, and everything returned to business as usual. Possibly
Putin hopes the same thing will happen with respect to Crimea.

The other possibility, being advanced by some analysts, is that Putin
wants to postpone annexing Crimea until after a new invasion of
Ukraine allowing Russia to annex either eastern Ukraine or all of
Ukraine, along with Crimea. Itar-Tass (Moscow)

****
**** Does Iran's anti-nuclear fatwa really exist, as claimed?
****

The interim nuclear agreement that the West signed with Iran in
November has been very troubled from day one. The full text of that
agreement has never been published. U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry said that under the agreement Iran had no right to enrich
uranium, while Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated
that Iran had preserved its right to enrich uranium. The White House
published a "summary," but Iran completely rejected
the White House summary as "not true." Then,
in January, Iran disclosed that there was a secret side agreement to
the nuclear agreement. The White House first confirmed this, saying
that the side agreement would be made public, and then denied that
there was a secret side agreement

In selling the interim nuclear agreement, President Barack Obama
frequent referred to a fatwa issued by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Seyed Ali Khamenei that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful,
and that forbids the development of nuclear weapons. The fatwa
supposedly says, "the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear
weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of
Iran shall never acquire these weapons."

The problem is that Obama has apparently never actually seen this
fatwa, and apparently neither has anyone else. Iranian and Arab
writers have been examining Obama's claim, and they say that there is
no such fatwa. The closest thing to it that's verifiable is a slogan
from Khamanei:

<QUOTE>"Nuclear weapons for no nation, nuclear energy for all
nations!"<END QUOTE>

Memri

****
**** U.S. special forces capture pirate Libyan oil tanker in Mediterranean
****

This story could be the plot of a situation comedy.

Following the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, the eastern region of
Libya, formerly known as Cyrenaica and now called the Barqa Region, is
being governed by rebels who demand to secede from the Libya headed by
the government in Tripoli -- and keep their oil wells for themselves.

A major drama played out in Libya over the last two weeks. A North
Korean-flagged oil tanker, the Morning Glory, docked in the port of
As-Sidra in "Barqa." The rebels loaded it up with $38 million worth
of crude oil from Libya's wells. The Tripoli government said that if
the oil tanker leaves port, it would be bombed. The rebels said that
if it's bombed, then it would be a "declaration of war."

Then Libya's prime minister in Tripoli announced that the oil tanker
had been captured, and that it was under control of Libya's navy. The
next thing we heard was that the oil tanker had slipped away anyway.
The prime minister was sacked, and he's now fled to Europe.

So the oil tanker headed to the waters near Cyprus, where the pirates
began trying to sell off their oil. Both Cyprus and Libya asked for
America's help, and early Monday morning, a U.S. SEAL commando team
boarded the tanker from a Naval special warfare rigid inflatable boat
and took control. No one was injured. The ship will be returned to
Tripoli.

Despite the comedic nature of this story, the serious side is that
Libya is in chaos. The country is essentially being run by individual
militias, with little government control over the country. The
Morning Glory incident may not be fully played out, but even if it is,
it's going to lead to retribution in its aftermath. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Crimea,
Georgia, Abkhazia, South Osettia,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Libya, Morning Glory, Cyrenaica, Barqa, Cyprus

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*** 19-Mar-14 World View -- Putin gives angry, nationalistic speech annexing Crimea to Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Putin announces the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation
• Furious Vladimir Putin expresses contempt for the West
• Putin's spokesman signals plans to invade eastern Ukraine
• Report: Chechnya terrorist leader Doku Umarov is dead

****
**** Putin announces the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation
****


Putin giving speech on Tuesday

In a speech to the Duma on Tuesday, Russia's president Vladimir
Putin announced that Russia will annex Crimea.

<QUOTE>"In order to understand why this choice was made​, it
is enough to know the history of the Crimea, and know what Russia
means for the Crimea and what Crimea means to Russia.

There is ancient Chersonesos there, where Holy Prince Vladimir was
baptized. His spiritual struggle - an appeal to Orthodoxy -
predestined common cultural values ​​and civilizational framework
that will unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. In the
Crimea, there are graves of the Russian soldiers, with whose
courage the Crimea was taken into the Russian state in 1783. The
Crimea is Sevastopol, a legendary city of great destiny, a
fortress city and the birthplace of the Russian Black Sea Navy.

During all these years, many citizens and many public figures have
raised this issue, saying that the Crimea is a native Russian land
and that Sevastopol is a Russian city."<END QUOTE>

One might almost have sympathy for Putin's arguments if the Crimean
referendum hadn't been conducted under gunpoint of a Russian invasion,
with Ukrainian supporters beaten up or locked up, justifying the
Russian invasion because some Russian citizens were being attacked by
Nationalists, neo-Nazis, and Russophobes. By Putin's logic, Turkey
could invade Germany because some Turkish citizens have been attacked
by German neo-Nazis. In fact, by Putin's logic, any country whose
citizens are attacked by any terrorists in any other country has a
right to invade that country, to "protect its citizens" from "the
terrorists."

I would have more sympathy for Putin, but my opinion of him is
strongly colored by my overwhelming disgust by the situation in Syria,
and Putin's support of Bashar al-Assad. As I've said in the past,
it's like the TV show "Criminal Minds," which dwells on scenes of
rape, torture and mutilation. But al-Assad and Putin are performing
"Criminal Minds" scripts on an "industrial strength" scale, bombing
innocent women and children with barrel bombs, sarin gas, and any
other heavy weapons al-Assad can get his hands on from Putin, in his
campaign to exterminate all Sunnis in Syria. Al-Assad is a war
criminal, and Putin is also a war criminal for supplying weapons to
al-Assad.

So when I hear war criminal Putin say that he's going to protect
Russian citizens from "terrorists" and "neo-Nazis" (i.e., Ukrainians),
it takes me back to the beginning of the Syrian civil war, and I feel
we're going down the same path. And so do a lot of other people.
Pravda (Moscow) and Tauric Chersonesos

****
**** Furious Vladimir Putin expresses contempt for the West
****

A furious Vladimir Putin made it pretty clear how contemptuous he was
of Western politicians, in Europe and the U.S. It's well known that
Putin believes that the European Union and President Barack Obama lied
to him several times, particularly in the context of the Libyan war in
2011. (Not hard to believe.) Russia and China abstained on the vote
for a no-fly zone in Libya, based on the promise of no military
intervention which, Putin believes was a lie.

As I wrote in 2011 (see "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
), Russia adopted a policy of using
the United Nations Security Council to cripple American and Western
foreign policy. Putin has been incredibly successful with this
policy, by vetoing one Security Council resolution after another, even
resolutions mildly criticizing Bashar al-Assad.

So today we're seeing the culmination of Putin's successful policy.
Western foreign policy is crippled by Putin's policy, but Putin
invades Crimea with no Security Council resolution.

In his speech on Tuesday, Putin clearly expressed his utter
contempt for the West:

<QUOTE>Like a mirror, the situation in Ukraine reflects what
is going on and what has been happening in the world over the past
several decades. After the dissolution of bipolarity on the
planet, we no longer have stability. Key international
institutions are not getting any stronger; on the contrary, in
many cases, they are sadly degrading. Our western partners, led by
the United States of America, prefer not to be guided by
international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of
the gun. They have come to believe in their exclusivity and
exceptionalism, that they can decide the destinies of the world,
that only they can ever be right. They act as they please: here
and there, they use force against sovereign states, building
coalitions based on the principle “If you are not with us, you are
against us.” To make this aggression look legitimate, they force
the necessary resolutions from international organizations, and if
for some reason this does not work, they simply ignore the UN
Security Council and the UN overall.

This happened in Yugoslavia; we remember 1999 very well. It was
hard to believe, even seeing it with my own eyes, that at the end
of the 20th century, one of Europe’s capitals, Belgrade, was under
missile attack for several weeks, and then came the real
intervention. Was there a UN Security Council resolution on this
matter, allowing for these actions? Nothing of the sort. And then,
they hit Afghanistan, Iraq, and frankly violated the UN Security
Council resolution on Libya, when instead of imposing the
so-called no-fly zone over it they started bombing it too.

There was a whole series of controlled “color” revolutions.
Clearly, the people in those nations, where these events took
place, were sick of tyranny and poverty, of their lack of
prospects; but these feelings were taken advantage of
cynically. Standards were imposed on these nations that did not in
any way correspond to their way of life, traditions, or these
peoples’ cultures. As a result, instead of democracy and freedom,
there was chaos, outbreaks in violence and a series of
upheavals. The Arab Spring turned into the Arab
Winter."<END QUOTE>

Putin is saying something I've said many times before in the context
of a Generational Dynamics analysis. The survivors of World War II
created the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the
International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Rockefeller
Foundation (Green Revolution), and other international organizations
not only to prevent a new world war, but also to end poverty and
starvation and to improve health. Only WW II survivors could
accomplish these things. But today, with the WW II survivors gone,
it's almost impossible to accomplish by compromise. The only thing --
the ONLY thing -- that works today is military force. Washington Post

****
**** Putin's spokesman signals plans to invade eastern Ukraine
****

Two weeks ago, Vladimir Putin promised not to "consider" annexing
Crimea. That promise was broken within two days.

In his speech on Tuesday, Vladimir Putin said that Russia has no plans
to invade eastern Ukraine. But his spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, was
interviewed on the BBC on Tuesday, and said in effect the opposite (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"First of all, we do expect some measures from those
people who are calling [themselves] the Ukrainian government.

And we do expect western community backing those people to take
effective measures in order to protect those people living in the
eastern regions of Ukraine. Because at the same time, we're
receiving reports about clashes in Kharkov, it's an east
city of Ukraine, in eastern region. So there are clashes and
sounds of gunfire, and also some reports about one or two people
being wounded. Those clashes between military gun men and
fighters extremist coming from western regions, so we do expect
Ukrainian government to protect Russian population. Otherwise
Russia simply cannot stay without reaction. We will have to
react. We will have to protect Russians, and those Ukrainians
living there."<END QUOTE>

A careful reading of this statement reveals that it contains
all of the elements and rationalizations for a Russian invasion
of east Ukraine:

• It expresses contempt for "those people who are calling
  themselves the Ukrainian government."
  
• Russian people are being attacked in Kharkov, presumably by
  "Nationalists, neo-Nazis, and Russophobes" and other "extremists
  coming from western regions."
  
• The "Western community" must take "effective measures ... to
  protect" Russians living in eastern Ukraine.
  
• If nothing changes, Russia will "react."

In other words, Putin is going to use the violence in Kharkov as an
excuse to invade eastern Ukraine, and will blame it on the "Western
community" -- the United States and the European Union.

There are many people in Poland, Estonia and Moldova who believe that
once Putin is finished "protecting Russians" in Ukraine, he'll move on
to their countries. With the U.S. and Europe distracted by the
possible war in eastern Europe, China may choose this time to move on
the islands in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

****
**** Report: Chechnya terrorist leader Doku Umarov is dead
****

Doku Umarov, the Chechen leader of the Caucasus Emirate, has been
responsible for several major terrorist attacks in Russia, including
bombings at the Moscow airport in 2011 and on the Moscow subway in
2010. In addition, he called for terrorist attacks at last month's
Sochi Olympics. A jihadist website says that Umarov is dead, and will
be replaced by Ali Abu Mohammed. The report cannot be independently
confirmed, and there have been several previous reports of his death,
those is the first time by his sympathizers. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Crimea, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tauric Chersonesos, Sevastopol, Libya, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Dmitri Peskov, Kharkov, Poland, Estonia, Moldova,
South China Sea, East China Sea, China,
Doku Umarov, Caucasus Emirate, Ali Abu Mohammed

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*** 20-Mar-14 World View -- Russia's annexation of Crimea splits the Russian Orthodox Church

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine capitulates to Russia in Crimea
• Russia's annexation of Crimea splits the Russian Orthodox Church

****
**** Ukraine capitulates to Russia in Crimea
****

Ukraine's interim government has announced that it will withdraw its
troops from Crimea. It is not known whether Russia plans to invade
eastern Ukraine. BBC

****
**** Russia's annexation of Crimea splits the Russian Orthodox Church
****


Saint Andrew's Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Kiev, constructed in 1747-54, to a design by the Italian architect Bartolomeo Rastrelli.

Unlike the Roman Catholic Church, which is united worldwide under a
single Pope in Rome, the Eastern Orthodox Church is actually a
community of a dozen or so self-governing ("autocephalous") churches
sharing common values. A Catholic is a Catholic anywhere in the world
(in theory, anyway), but there's no such thing as a generic "Orthodox
Christian." You have to be Orthodox PLUS something else -- Russian
Orthodox or Greek Orthodox, for example. A Greek Orthodox would
reject becoming a Catholic, but just as important, he would never
become a Russian Orthodox either.

There is an amusing anecdote describing how the Russian Orthodox
Church was founded in Kiev. The anecdote involves a pagan prince
named Vladimir, who in 980 became ruling prince of the Slavs,
headquartered in Kiev. And Prince Vladimir went religion shopping.

According to legend, he rejected Islam, because it forbade alcoholic
drink. He sent commissions to visit the Christian Churches. The
Bulgarians, they reported, smelt. The Germans had nothing to offer.
But Constantinople (or Byzantium) had won their hearts. There, they
said in words often to be quoted, "We knew not whether we were in
heaven or earth, for on earth there is no such vision nor beauty, and
we do not know how to describe it; we know only that there God dwells
among men." Around 986-8, Prince Vladimir was baptized as an Orthodox
Christian by a Byzantine emperor in the Greek colony of Chersonesos --
near Sevastopol in Crimea. Vladimir accepted Orthodox Christianity
for himself and his people. Vladimir might have chosen Catholicism,
and thus would one man have changed the history and the map of the
world. In the centuries to come, the Slav culture moved east and
formed the Russian Empire.

Well, Kiev was conquered by the Mongols in 1240, while Constantinople
was conquered by the Ottoman Muslims in 1453, and became Istanbul.

With the destruction of Rome by the Visigoths, and the destruction of
Constantinople by the Ottomans, by 1472 Ivan the Great decided that
Moscow was going to become "the third Rome," the home of the true (or
"orthodox") Christian faith, and the defender of Jerusalem. He gave
himself the title "Czar" or "Tsar," derived from the name of the Roman
Emperor Caesar (as is the German word "Kaiser").

Thus, the Russian Orthodox Church became married to the Russian state.
This led Russia to enter the Crimean war as a generational crisis war
in the 1850s in its role as the defender of Jerusalem. The Crimean
war was a disaster for Russia and led in the following generational
Awakening era to Russia's "Nihilist Movement," which rejected both the
Church and the State, and can be thought of as an extremely violent
analog to the violent protests in America in the 1960s. The Nihilist
Movement grew and became the lynchpin of the next generational crisis
war, the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. The Tsarist state was
destroyed, and the Russian Orthodox Church was destroyed, though it
was revived in the Soviet era during World War II when it was needed
to help fight the Great Patriotic War against the Nazis. Since the
Soviet Empire collapsed in the 1990s, the Russian Orthodox Church has
once again become close to the Russian state.

Like a dog wagging its tail, changes in the Russian Orthodox Church
have pushed the Ukrainian Orthodox Church through multiple chaotic
events throughout this millennium of history. Sometimes it was
subordinate to the Moscow Church, sometimes it was completely
self-governing. When the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, the
Ukrainian church itself was split, with the result that there were
three Orthodox jurisdictions in Ukraine:

• The biggest one is the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, still
  subordinate to the Moscow Church, with 10,865 parishes and 9,072
  clergy.
  
• Next is the Ukrainian Orthodox Church - Kiev Patriarchate, which
  has 3,721 parishes served by 2,816 clergy.
  
• The Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church is the smallest, with
  1,166 parishes and 686 clergy, mostly concentrated in western
  Ukraine.

At one time, it was hoped that these three churches would eventually
merge, possibly even become entirely subordinate to the Moscow
church. But Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown any such
hope into chaos, and it poses a serious threat to the Moscow
church.

The Bishops of Crimea are requesting that their Orthodox churches
become subordinate to the Moscow church, rather than be a part of any
of the Ukrainian churches. The Moscow church faces two bad choices:

• If the Moscow Patriarchate takes control of the Orthodox
  churches in Crimea, then many of the 10,865 parishes in the Ukrainian
  Orthodox Church (currently subordinate to Moscow) would demand to pull
  away from Moscow and become part of the Kiev Patriarchate. The Moscow
  Patriarchate would then not only lose a lot of prestige and power, it
  would also lose a great deal of income.
  
• But if Moscow Patriarchate does not demand complete control over
  the Crimean churches, then many Russians and especially Russian
  nationalists are likely to view that as an act of betrayal by the
  Church, giving the appearance of hypocrisy and loss of faith at
  home.

It's worth pointing out that the Kiev Patriarchate is strongly
opposing the actions of the Russian state in annexing Crimea, while
the Moscow Patriarchate is supporting those actions. One possible
outcome is an ironic one: that the Crimean churches join Moscow, and
the three Ukrainian churches finally unite into a single autocephalous
church as the Kiev Patriarchate. So the Russian action in Crimea may
finally unite the Kiev Patriarchate, but not in the way that the
Moscow Patriarchate had hoped.

Russia's annexation of Crimea has changed the map of Europe by force,
for the first time since WW II, and may have changed the map of the
Orthodox world as well. Religion News and Washington Post and Catholic Culture and Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Crimea, Russia, Kiev, Moscow,
Prince Vladimir, Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church

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Little connection at all. Mainland leadership has been very cautious. It now dots the i's and crosses the t's before doing anything that might step on the sovereignty of another country -- even asking for extradition of pirates who murdered Chinese merchant sailors through the usual formalities. (The pirates have been convicted and executed). But that works. I suspect that the People's Republic of China will try to cut a deal with Taiwan... special economic zone with the recognition of its political system on the condition that the Communist Party be legalized and allowed to participate in free elections. An SEZ as with Hong Kong or Macau?

China is merely being more subtle and incremental. It's still a revisionist power. As for the rest of it, unless American security guarantees collapse loudly and completely in the near future (which is possible, I suppose), unlikely. Kuomintang president Ma Ying-Jeou's popularity has plunged, while support amongst the Taiwanese populace for any sort of unification with China is very low. They obviously prefer the status quo, but if forced to choose, they choose independence. Judging from comments by Xi Jinping, they may have to sooner rather than later. Make no mistake, China/Taiwan is in a 4T, and this is at the core of the unresolved issues for this saeculum for them.