John,

For what it's worth, it may be worthwhile to examine the role of Catholicism in western Ukraine as well. It was part of Poland(-Lithuania) and the Austro-Hungarian Empire far longer than it has been part of Russia.

Ukraine is kind of an artificial country. There is definitely a majority Ukrainian ethnic group, but not one that has a lot of experience as a cohesive and unified politcal and cultural unit.

The Trans-Dniester idiots are shouting from their little sliver of land again, asking for transfer to Russia. Meanwhile, Moldova is saying "no!" (they don't say nyet there, since they are either Romans or some Romanized tribe of yore). Here is my advice to Moldova, Ukraine and Romania. Form up immediately into a military consortium. Invade (or, to speak in a very exact manner, help Moldova to assert its existing authority over) Trans-Dniester. Surround the Russian troops there and give them the Crimea treatment. Eventually, like the Ukrainian troops in Crimea, allow them passage back to Rusland. Tit for tat!

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

The Trans-Dniester idiots are shouting from their little sliver of land again, asking for transfer to Russia. Meanwhile, Moldova is saying "no!" (they don't say nyet there, since they are either Romans or some Romanized tribe of yore). Here is my advice to Moldova, Ukraine and Romania. Form up immediately into a military consortium. Invade (or, to speak in a very exact manner, help Moldova to assert its existing authority over) Trans-Dniester. Surround the Russian troops there and give them the Crimea treatment. Eventually, like the Ukrainian troops in Crimea, allow them passage back to Rusland. Tit for tat!

1. Yup. I also like the idea of Poland, Japan, S Korea, Ukraine, etc. start their own Manhatten projects. Non proliferation is so 20th century!
2. If you have fissle material handy like U235 or Pu-239 handy, you're already more than half way there.
3. Ukdrain agreed to give up its nukes and see what happened? In retrospect, that was a huge blunder.

*** 21-Mar-14 World View -- Putin's approval ratings soar in Russia over Crimea annexation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Putin's approval ratings soar in Russia over Crimea annexation
• Riots among Palestinians over successor to Abbas
• Hundreds of dead pig carcasses found in China's Gan River

****
**** Putin's approval ratings soar in Russia over Crimea annexation
****


Anti-Putin march in Moscow in February

The approval rating of Russia's president Vladimir Putin has soared 15
points since January 1 to 75.7% of Russians supporting him. Putin's
political opposition was already pretty dispirited, but the Crimean
annexation has permitted Putin to crush the opposition in polling.

In fact, the Crimea annexation has split the opposition itself.
Liberal anti-war groups are calling for the withdrawal of Russian
troops from Ukraine, while leftist movements like the Left Front are
joining nationalist forces to demand that Crimea be returned to
Russia. This split has allowed Putin to claim that an "absolute
majority of Russians" supported the annexation of Crimean, while those
who opposed it were "national traitors" acting on behalf of Western
countries. Moscow Times

****
**** Riots among Palestinians over successor to Abbas
****

With Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas at age 79, many officials
in the Palestinian Authority (Fatah) are considering the question
of who will be his successor. Abbas is part of the old generation
of survivors of the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed
the 1947 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. When Yasser Arafat died in 2004, Abbas was a natural
choice to succeed him, because they were both war survivors and
shared a common world view. But now the time is approaching
for a successor and for a generational change.

The major aspirant is 52 year old Mohammed Dahlan. Dahlan grew up
poor in a Gaza refugee camp, but as a top aide to Arafat became Gaza's
strongman in the 1990s, jailing leaders of rival Hamas which was
trying to derail Arafat’s negotiation with Israel through bombing and
shooting attacks. Abbas and Dahlan uses to be allies, but the 2008
war between Fatah and Hamas, that made Hamas the governing power in
Gaza caused tension between them, until 2011 when Abbas expelled
Dahlan completely from Fatah. The bitterness between the two has been
growing, and in the last few weeks they've even started calling each
other traitors in the resistance to Israel. Abbas has accused Dahlan
of involvement in six murders, hinting that he might also be behind
the death of former leader and Palestinian icon Yasser Arafat. Dahlan
has called Abbas a "catastrophe" for the Palestinian people.

The vitriolic personal fight is spilling over into the streets. In
Gaza City on Tuesday, dozens of Abbas supporters clashed with Dahlan
supporters using stones and sticks. The police were called in to
separate the two parties.

In Lebanon, tensions are growing in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp
between supporters of the two sides. With the war in Syria spilling
over into Lebanon anyway, most Palestinians have followed the lead of
Hamas in standing against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who is
exterminating Sunni women and children. But there is a pro-Assad
faction in Ain al-Hilweh who is siding with Abbas. With tensions
growing almost daily, there are fears that all out violence could
break out any day. AP and Middle East Monitor and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Hundreds of dead pig carcasses found in China's Gan River
****

Chinese officials have pulled hundreds of dead pig carcasses out of
the Gan River, in central Jiangxi province. The Gan serves as the
main drinking water supply for several large cities, but Chinese
officials say they've tested the water and it's still safe for
consumption. It's not known where the pig carcasses came from,
or why they were disposed of this way.

This year's situation seems less severe compared to what happened last
year, when there were 16,000 pig carcasses. It was later determined
that the pigs were from an upstream farm, which was hit by a common
pig virus, porcine circovirus, infecting thousands of livestock. The
virus, which is not harmful to humans, was responsible for quickly
taking out a huge portion of the farm’s pig population, and the
farmers dumped them into the river to dispose of them. International Business Times and Radio Free Asia


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Crimea,
Mahmoud Abbas, Mohammed Dahlan, Yassar Arafat,
Hamas, Gaza, Fatah, Palestinian Authority,
Lebanon, Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
China, Gan River, porcine circovirus

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 22-Mar-14 World View -- The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity
• Russia protests Estonia's treatment of its Russian minority
• Xi Jinping redirects China's ideology from Marxism to Nationalism

****
**** The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity
****


Pro-Russian troops in Crimea on Thursday (AP)

With Russia's annexation of Crimea now a fait accompli, it's
well to remember that this isn't the first recent annexation of other
countries' territories. China has already seized islands in the South
China Sea that have historically belonged to the Philippines and
Vietnam, and is operating on the belief that any "short, sharp attack"
on any one island won't bring an American response. China intends to
continue annexing islands in this fashion. ( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines"
)

The news on Friday is that Russia is massing over 20,000 troops on the
border with eastern Ukraine, evidently with the intention of invading,
in order annex some or all of that territory. It's really not logical
for Russia's president Vladimir Putin to stop with Crimea, since there
are plenty of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, and because Crimea
can't survive without the fresh water, electricity, gas and food that
it imports from Ukraine. NBC News

****
**** Russia protests Estonia's treatment of its Russian minority
****

Russia has long complained about Estonia's insistence that its large
Russian minority in the country should learn to speak Estonian. But
recent remarks by Russian diplomats that, for example, Russia was
"concerned by steps taken .. in Estonia as well as in Ukraine" to user
language to "segregate and isolate groups" is giving rise to fears
that Estonia is one of the countries on Vladimir Putin's list to be
invaded in order to protect Russian citizens.

Estonia has a centuries old bitter history with Russia. People today
vividly remember that Josef Stalin's Red Army reoccupied Estonia in
June 1940, and made it part of the Soviet Union. On a one-night
operation, June 13-14, 1941, thousands of Estonians, mostly women and
children, were deported to Siberia, while tens of thousands of men
were forcibly relocated to Russia to fight in the army. This period of
bloody Soviet rule left a deep mark on the Estonians, and so when the
German Nazis invaded later in 1941, they were greeted as
liberators. The Nazis were just as brutal as the Soviets, but when the
Red Army returned in September, 1944, some 70,000 Estonians fled the
country, and formed a diaspora throughout Europe and North
America. After the war, Stalin's Soviet brutality continued by forcing
ethnic Russians to relocate to Estonia to dilute the Estonian
population. Estonia only became independent in 1991 with the collapse
of the Soviet Union.

Today, as Estonia is well into a new generational Crisis era, it is
haunted by ghosts of "Nazi sympathizers" who opposed the Soviets, and
a substantial Russian minority, mainly descendants of Russians whom
Stalin had forced to relocate to Estonia after the war, who consider
themselves to be victims as well.

There are several countries that separate Russia from the European
Union, and many of them have sizable ethnic Russian minorities who
consider themselves to be victims. Many of these countries, including
Estonia, are members of Nato, meaning that if Russia invades, then
Nato will be required by treaty to fight the invasion militarily.

Russia as a whole, and Putin in particular, are becoming increasingly
nationalistic, and it's possible that Putin will conclude from the
experience of annexing Crimea that Nato won't respond militarily even
after a Nato country is invaded, but will simply adopt new sanctions
such as making it illegal for Russian politicians to visit Disneyland.
Similarly, the Chinese may conclude from Russia's experience in Crimea
and their own experiences in the South China Sea that they can
continue annexing other people's islands and territories with
impunity. But that would be a mistake on the part of the Russians and
Chinese. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, nationalism
is going to surge on all sides in this generational Crisis era.

It's true that there's a "new normal" today that permits Russia and
China to annex foreign territories with impunity. But actually it's
the same "old normal" that existed in 1938 when Britain allowed Nazi
Germany to annex Sudetenland with impunity. As nationalism increases
on all sides, which always happens in a generational Crisis era,
sooner or later the "new normal" gives way to military force, and a
new war, which has been the "real normal" since time immemorial.
International Business Times

****
**** Xi Jinping redirects China's ideology from Marxism to Nationalism
****

A year after taking office, president Xi Jinping is emerging as the
strongest Chinese leader in decades. He's adopted Mao Zedong's
populist style by means of photo ops such as eating steamed buns with
ordinary citizens.

Xi is also making deep changes to China's ideological culture, in
order to resolve a major ideological conflict. Modern China was
founded when Mao and his peasant revolutionaries defeated Chiang
Kai-shek and the Nationalists, in the climax of the Communist
Revolution in 1949. Today, however, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
elites in Beijing cower in fear at the thought of a new Mao-style
peasant revolution. So just as Mao's movement obliterated China's
Nationalist past, replacing it with a revolution Marxist culture, Xi
is introducing a new orthodoxy which obliterates Mao's revolutionary
culture in favor of a return to the Nationalist past. This includes a
new revival of Confucius and "the excellent elements of traditional
Chinese culture." Naturally, this new direction also builds on the
popular resurgence of interest in traditional culture among many
citizens, amid the sense that Chinese society has lost its moorings in
the midst of rapid economic and social change.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this is going
to make any difference. The lives of 1.35 billion Chinese are not
going to be affected in any way by the adoption by a few Beijing
elites of a new ideological culture. These cultural changes always
come from the people, anyway, not from the politicians or elites.
China had a "peasant revolution" in the 1850s-60s called the "Taiping
Rebellion," and had another peasant revolution in the 1930s-40 called
the "Communist Revolution." China is now due for a new peasant
rebellion, and an ideological diktat won't change that in any way.
Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Crimea, Ukraine,
China, Philippines, Vietnam, Vladimir Putin,
Estonia, Josef Stalin, NATO, Xi Jinping

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

I recall a post awhile back that cultures tend to return to their roots over time. A resumption of old patterns, even if in new dress. Will China increasingly look like a modernized version of its old self?

Of course, historically the east Asian countries were vassals of the Middle Kingdom.

It has been pointed out that the Baltic states are particularly easy for the Russians to invade.

*** 23-Mar-14 World View -- Russia's Crimea annexation brings entire European Union into question

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Crimea annexation brings entire European Union into question
• France kills 40 Islamists in Mali in recent operations
• 59 people die of Ebola virus in Guinea

****
**** Russia's Crimea annexation brings entire European Union into question
****


Russia supporters celebrate in Simferopol, Crimea, on Friday (Reuters)

Russian troops consolidated their control of Crimea by smashing their
way into the remaining Ukrainian military bases in Crimea with armored
vehicles, automatic fire and stun grenades and taking them over.
Russian troops sang Russian songs, while Ukrainian troops changed,
"Long live Ukraine!"

Although Saturday's actions were mostly bloodless, with few
casualties, Western officials fear further possible Russian plans to
invade eastern Ukraine, and cause an incident that triggers a real
military confrontation and a wider war.

Russia's annexation of Crimea is not a trivial matter for the
Europeans. There is a growing sense in Europe that the entire
European Union project is in jeopardy. The European Union was formed
with the specific purpose of providing a political and legal
infrastructure that would prevent a repeat of the two world wars that
had ravaged the continent. The Europeans have been building this
infrastructure for 60 years, with courts and parliaments and treaties
and constitutions and banks and even a new currency. But the ease
with which Russia could annex another country's territory with
impunity, or that China could do the same thing in the South China
Sea, makes it clear to everyone that, in the end, that infrastructure
prevents nothing. And if that infrastructure prevents nothing, then
what's the purpose of the European Union, except a temporary romantic
convenience? Irish Times and Telegraph (London)

****
**** France kills 40 Islamists in Mali in recent operations
****

France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Thursday that
operations by French soldiers in Mali have killed about 40 Islamist
militants in the last few weeks, including a senior commander.

When France's president François Hollande announced in January of last
year that he was sending French peacekeeping troops into Mali to
prevent a takeover of the entire country by al-Qaeda linked Islamists,
he expected to withdraw them by March -- of last year. Then the
withdrawal date was postponed to August, then to December, and then to
March of this year.

According to Le Drian, the fight against militants in Mali "is far
from finished." The military action in Mali has already gone on far
longer than anyone expected, and has been far more expensive, and
apparently there's no end in sight. Expatica France and Al Jazeera

****
**** 59 people die of Ebola virus in Guinea
****

Experts in the west African nation Guinea had been unable to identify
the disease that's killed 59 people in the last six weeks, but on
Saturday it was finally identified as the Ebola virus by scientists
studying samples in Lyon, France. The disease kills 25-90% of those
who fall sick. It's extremely contagious, but is transmitted by
direct contact with blood, feces or sweat, or by sexual contact or
unprotected handling of contaminated corpses. Ebola is not
transmitted through the air, so it's unlikely to cause a widespread
pandemic if the public takes reasonable precautions. According to
French officials, anyone who has to travel to southern Guinea should
"strictly respect the hygiene rules, not consume the meat of animals
killed by hunting and stay away from areas of high density of
population like markets and football grounds." AFP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Crimea, European Union,
France, Mali, Jean-Yves Le Drian, François Hollande,
Guinea, Ebola

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 24-Mar-14 World View -- Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey shoots down Syrian warplane violating Turkish airspace
• Europeans alarmed as Russian troops mass on Ukraine border
• Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

****
**** Turkey shoots down Syrian warplane violating Turkish airspace
****


Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkey's F-16 fighter jets shot down a Syrian aircraft which crossed
Turkey's border. Tensions have been high between Syria and Turkey
since the Syrian civil war began three years ago, sending millions of
refugees to neighboring countries, including half a million into
Turkey. But concerns have been rising even further in recent weeks
because of threats to the tomb, in Syria, of Süleyman Sah, the
grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire.

Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan explained the incident at an
election rally on Sunday:

<QUOTE>"A Syrian plane violated our airspace. Our F-16s took
off and hit this plane. Why? Because if you violate my airspace,
our slap will be hard. Now in your presence, I congratulate the
General Staff, the Turkish military and our air
forces."<END QUOTE>

Opposition politicians in Turkey are claiming that the incident was an
attempt for Erdogan to gain popularity seven days before national
elections, and to divert attention from the growing corruption scandal
swamping him and his family and administration. Cihan (Turkey) and Zaman (Turkey)

****
**** Europeans alarmed as Russian troops mass on Ukraine border
****

Two days after annexing Ukraine's Crimean peninsula to Russia,
some 20,000 Russian troops are performing military exercises
on the border of east Ukraine. At the same time, pro-Russian
activists in eastern Ukraine are planning rallies to encourage
a Russian invasion.

Nato's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove
emphasized the large size of the Russia force -- large enough to push
all the way across eastern Ukraine to Moldova on the other end:

<QUOTE>"The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border
now to the east is very, very sizable and very, very ready.

There is absolutely sufficient force postured on the eastern
border of Ukraine to run to Trans-Dniester if the decision was
made to do that, and that is very worrisome."<END QUOTE>

Trans-Dniester is a small province of Moldova with a large ethnic
Russian population that wants to separate from Moldova and become part
of Russia. They have been given hope by Russia's actions in Crimea.

The Russians say that they have no intention of invading eastern
Ukraine, but it was only a few days ago that they said they had no
intention of annexing Crimea.

Europeans are becoming increasingly alarmed that Russia's actions are
destabilizing the European Union itself. "We must not allow a new
division of Europe," according to Germany's foreign minister.

In America, politicians are becoming increasingly critical of inaction
by President Obama, even in the Tea Party, which has been isolationist
in the past. According to political analyst Ron Senor on ABC News on
Sunday, "Rand Paul was initially quite critical of Republicans who
were 'going back to cold war rhetoric,' and then you watch where the
party went, where Ted Cruz went - he's a good bellwether for where the
base is - he was extremely critical of the president on Russia and
Ukraine, and suddenly Rand Paul has moved to a more muscular
position."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is all as
expected, as I've been saying for years. In this generational Crisis
era, Russia, Europe, America and most other countries are becoming
increasingly nationalistic, as they're forced to abandon their
pie-eyed dreams left over from the 1960s. CNN

****
**** Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia
****

Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif on Thursday categorically said
that Pakistan was not sending its troops to Saudi Arabia or Bahrain.
The denial came because of persistent and increasingly numerous rumors
that Pakistan is sending 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia for the defense
shield force of the Gulf Cooperation Council. During the Arab Spring
revolts in Bahrain, it's believed that Pakistanis quelled the revolt.
It's estimated that almost 10,000 Pakistanis are still serving in
security services in Bahrain.

What triggered the new reports were visits from Saudi and Bahraini
officials to Pakistan to discuss common security concerns. And most
significant, there was a sudden, unexpected payment of $1.5 billion
from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan, with no coherent explanation, with some
officials calling an aid, then a grant, then aid, then a gift. The
mystery deepened when it emerged that Saudi Arabia had purchased
weapons systems from Pakistan.

Those in Pakistan who oppose sending either weapons or troops to Saudi
Arabia express concern that the Saudis will use them to fight Bashar
al-Assad's forces in Syria, as part of the growing Sunni-Shia
sectarian conflict in the Mideast. Pakistan has its own problems with
sectarian battles, as Taliban-linked jihadists in Pakistan have vowed
to exterminate all Shias in Pakistan, and have been carrying out that
threat with frequent bombings of Shia mosques and markets. The fear
is that if Pakistan becomes embroiled in Syria or in the Mideast
sectarian fight in any way, then the sectarian conflict in Pakistan
will only become worse.

As I've said many times over the last ten years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that in coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China,
Pakistan and the Sunni countries will be allied against the West,
India, Russia and Iran. The increasing military relationship between
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia appears to support that prediction.
The Nation (Pakistan) and Memri and
The News (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Süleyman Sah, Ottoman Empire,
Ukraine, Crimea, Russia, Nato, Philip Breedlove,
Moldova, Trans-Dniester, Tea Party, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul,
Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Clash of Civilizations world war

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

I recall a scenario in which Germany aquires nuclear weapons...and the central European states become satellites. Another version of a Reich.

A Syrian Air Force aircraft has only one legitimate reason for flying into Turkish airspace: to defect.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I recall a post awhile back that cultures tend to return to their roots over time. A resumption of old patterns, even if in new dress. Will China increasingly look like a modernized version of its old self?

Of course, historically the east Asian countries were vassals of the Middle Kingdom.

IOW

"What was old, will be new again" - Rags

Next up "neo-partisans setting off "dirty nukes" off in Russian cities". Congrats Ukraine, proud owner of Chernobyl, the penuliimate fissiles/radio nuclides mine. Here's my other hand crafted saying for this shitstorm a brewin.

"Whether we like to admit it or not, resentment has been a powerful force in history". - Rags. Oh, and that Syria thingie Putin's got going.

Nothing like a nest of pissed off Sunnis in Russia's underbelly as well. Karma/blow back's a bitch, Putin. Sorry Putin, you're an idiot.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I recall a scenario in which Germany aquires nuclear weapons...and the central European states become satellites. Another version of a Reich.

How about another scenerio: Japan tosses its WWII no military/no nuke treaty to the ashcan of history and rearms? China and Japan likewise have plenty of resentment fuel. They're also sorta like Ukraine. They have what seems to be a useless thing called Fukushima. What if they do the "something old becomes new again" and create a neo-Kamikaze brigade to set off dirty bombs off in China? Not that it would matter much since China's doing a fine job already of killing off it's own via mass pollution. Hmmm.... Now this is a strange coicidence. Ukraine and Japan both hae dirty bomb mines and it's now just become apparent ! Wanna dispose of high level nuclear waste? Eh, there you go. Duel purpose. Just find a way of getting some of it over to some country you royally hate as a disposal site.
.

Out of curiosity, I'm a little confused by the juxtaposition of the "Putin is Hitler" meme and the "Iran and Russia are going to ally with the West against China and the Sunnis" claim. Are you predicting regime change in Russia and Iran before this war happens?

What was old is new again.... But not necessarily coordinated. While some might try to implement the Intermarium (roughly similar to the Polish -Lithuanian Commonwealth), Japan will try to create a sphere of influence with the island countries of Asia (sound familiar?), while China tries to recreate its historical role as the Middle Kingdom.

While Russia tries to build something like the Soviet Union (at least as a sphere of influence). The important thing to point out that all of these claims overlap, and thus are ripe ground for future conflict.

I still maintain that Russia, Iran, and China are the primary revisionist powers this saeculum, and I don't see them splitting before this turning is over.

Russia and China almost went to war a couple of times in the 1960s.
China and Pakistan are close allies. Russia and India are close
allies. When Pakistan and India go to (nuclear) war, then Russia and
China will be at war with each other. Russia is also siding with
Vietnam and Philippines in the South China sea, as is India. There is
no chance whatsoever that Russia and China will be allies.

If history repeats itself, there's even a scenario where Putin will
make the same mistake that Stalin did. Stalin ceded some land to
Hitler in exchange for a promise from Hitler not to invade. That was
a disaster for Russia (and also for Germany, as it turned out). Putin
might cede some land in the Far East to China in exchange for a
promise not to invade Russia. That would also be a disastrous
mistake. However, Stalin made that mistake during an Awakening era;
Putin is unlikely to repeat that scenario in a Crisis era.

Russia and China almost went to war a couple of times in the 1960s.
China and Pakistan are close allies. Russia and India are close
allies. When Pakistan and India go to (nuclear) war, then Russia and
China will be at war with each other. Russia is also siding with
Vietnam and Philippines in the South China sea, as is India. There is
no chance whatsoever that Russia and China will be allies.

An interesting hypothesis. I disagree that Russia and China would go to war over a conflict between Pakistan and India. China's pledge to put Ukraine under its nuclear umbrella didn't trigger a war when Russia annexed the Crimea. I actually think we may see a realignment with India vis Russia if Narendra Modi gets into office and the Asian pivot picks up again. It's on my checklist of events leading up to WWIII, along with a move of India out of the SCO. Ditto for weapon sales to Vietnam and the Philippines. OTOH, the sides may end up being very messy, as I predicted in the next step down thread, in which case the alliances may be more blurred. I dunno, it's all speculative at this point. We shall have to wait and see.

For the record, there were military clashes between the USSR and China in the '60s, but the border disputes have since been resolved. One supposes they could be brought back up again, but there is little evidence of that at the moment.

If history repeats itself, there's even a scenario where Putin will
make the same mistake that Stalin did. Stalin ceded some land to
Hitler in exchange for a promise from Hitler not to invade. That was
a disaster for Russia (and also for Germany, as it turned out). Putin
might cede some land in the Far East to China in exchange for a
promise not to invade Russia. That would also be a disastrous
mistake. However, Stalin made that mistake during an Awakening era;
Putin is unlikely to repeat that scenario in a Crisis era.

I'm confused by your chronology here. Are you suggesting that Russia was in a 2T in the 1930s, but in a 4T today? If so, I disagree.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

An interesting hypothesis. I disagree that Russia and China would go to war over a conflict between Pakistan and India. China's pledge to put Ukraine under its nuclear umbrella didn't trigger a war when Russia annexed the Crimea. I actually think we may see a realignment with India vis Russia if Narendra Modi gets into office and the Asian pivot picks up again. It's on my checklist of events leading up to WWIII, along with a move of India out of the SCO. Ditto for weapon sales to Vietnam and the Philippines. OTOH, the sides may end up being very messy, as I predicted in the next step down thread, in which case the alliances may be more blurred. I dunno, it's all speculative at this point. We shall have to wait and see.

For the record, there were military clashes between the USSR and China in the '60s, but the border disputes have since been resolved. One supposes they could be brought back up again, but there is little evidence of that at the moment.



I'm confused by your chronology here. Are you suggesting that Russia was in a 2T in the 1930s, but in a 4T today? If so, I disagree.

The Anglosphere (including India .... Pakistan? ... meh ...) and a few other Germanic, Nordic, Gallic, Turkic, etc allies, vs, the neo-Yuan Empire (aka a slightly more focused SCO). We seem to have a similar strategic perspective.

The Anglosphere (including India .... Pakistan? ... meh ...) and a few other Germanic, Nordic, Gallic, Turkic, etc allies, vs, the neo-Yuan Empire (aka a slightly more focused SCO). We seem to have a similar strategic perspective.

Eh, kind of. Russia, China, and Iran are definitely revisionist powers, and there has been little to no evidence of a split just yet. India and Pakistan have excellent odds of squaring off, and so they may fall on opposite "sides". Likewise with NK and SK, and Israel and Palestinian/Islamic militants. Japan will be allied with the US against China (or is it the other way round), and the Anglosphere will likely tag along with whatever the US is doing. Europe hasn't really figured out if it is going to tear apart or come together, so I am leery of assigning them any role in the Crisis war at all just yet. i suspect more war in the Muslim world, but I think much of it won't be cohesive enough to be formally on one side or another. i actually think that, whether this escalates to WWIII or not (and so far, things have been progressing in the direction i expected if it does), the actual lines of conflict will be very messy.

PS Map of Yuan Empire. Just because it was the Mongol's Chinese dynasty doesn't mean they were heirs to the rest of the conquests. Just stick to calling it the SCO for right now.

Japan will be allied with the US against China (or is it the other way round)

For this, I meant in the sense that Japan might be dragging us into a war with China, rather than tagging along with what we as a hegemon are doing.

Thinking a bit more about common principles of the Alliance. Here is what we stand for (and what sets us at odds with the entourage of Anti Western fiends):

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/25/wo...ia-crimea.html

Such symbolism! Superb!

And now for a little night music:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qqkr7vjiPGg

*** 25-Mar-14 World View -- U.S. may release Jonathan Pollard to keep Mideast peace talks going

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. may release Jonathan Pollard to keep Mideast peace talks going
• Kazakhstan becomes anxious over Russia's annexation of Crimea
• How analysts used the Doppler Effect to locate Malaysia flight MH370

****
**** U.S. may release Jonathan Pollard to keep Mideast peace talks going
****


Kerry lectures Netanyahu at the start of the 'peace talks' last July

Jonathan Pollard has been in jail since 1987, when he pled guilty to
passing classified information to Israel. Israel has repeatedly tried
to get him released, but one American administration after another has
refused to let him go.

Now Pollard is becoming an issue in the Mideast "peace talks." The
Obama administration got these "peace talks" going last year by
"convincing" the Israelis to release 104 prisoners from the jails.
These prisoners had been convicted of terrorist acts prior to the 1994
Oslo accords. The release of these prisoners has been extremely
controversial in Israel, with very vocal opposition from the family
members of the people whom these terrorists had killed. Nonetheless,
Israel doesn't want to be seen to oppose President Obama, and though
the "peace talks" have been a worthless farce, the Palestinians had
continued to participate so that the prisoner releases will go
forward. But the last batch of 26 prisoners are scheduled for release
on Friday (March 28), and the "peace talks" will officially end of
April 29.

The "peace talks" farce is now enveloping the Jonathan Pollard
situation. Israel is releasing 104 killers from jail, but Pollard
can't be released.

So now there are reports (or rumors) that the Obama administration is
desperate to keep the "peace talks" going (presumably for purely
domestic political reasons), and so they are offering to release
Jonathan Pollard if the Israels will, in turn, offer some further
concessions to the Palestinians to keep the "peace talks" going.
Releasing Pollard seems like a reasonable thing, but these "peace
talks" have literally a zero probabilty of achieving anything, and
holding them together by a combination of multiple bribes and
extortion is so absurd as to be beyond belief.

This administration has had one major policy debacle after another,
whether it's the Russian "reset," the Afghan "peace process," the
Syrian "red line," or the Iranian nuclear talks. It seems every day
that they do one more stupid thing. I think I can honestly say that,
in my lifetime, I have not seen an administration, Democratic or
Republican, so completely inept and clueless about what's going on in
the world. Israel Today and Jewish Journal

****
**** Kazakhstan becomes anxious over Russia's annexation of Crimea
****

In many ways, the central Asian country of Kazakhstan is similar to
Ukraine. Both were part of the Soviet Union before it collapsed. And
both have sizeable populations of ethnic Russians. Kazakhstan and
Russia have the longest continuous common land border in the world. A
quarter of Kazakhstan's population is ethnic Russian, largely
concentrated in the northern provinces, along the border with Russia.

Kazakhstan has never recognized the independence of Georgia's
provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russian troops have
occupied since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Just last month,
several Russian politicians called on Russia to annex part of
Kazakhstan.

So Kazak politicians have been extremely anxious about Russia's
annexation of Crimea. On March 3, prior to the annexation,
Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry had warned that "further escalation of
tension may lead to unpredictable consequences" and called on all
parties "to renounce options that imply the use of power."

But once the Crimea referendum was held, Kazakhstan's government
flip-flopped, and issued a statement that many interpreted as
supporting the annexation:

<QUOTE>"The referendum held in Crimea is seen in Kazakhstan
as a free expression of the will of the Autonomous Republic’s
population, while the decision of the Russian Federation under the
existing circumstances is regarded with
understanding."<END QUOTE>

The interim Ukraine government responded with this on March 19:

<QUOTE>"Ukraine expressed its deep concern in connection to
Kazakhstan’s response to the referendum in the Autonomous Republic
of Crimea. The response contradicts the statement Kazakhstan made
earlier about the need to maintain territorial integrity of
Ukraine."<END QUOTE>

Kazakhstan officials are being very careful not to criticize Russian,
Ukrainian, or Western governments for their action, hoping to maintain
good relations with everyone. Relations between Kazakhstan and
Ukraine had been improving in recent years. Russia is Kazakhstan's
premier economic and security partner, while Ukraine offers Kazakhstan
an important connection with European markets and institutions. The
Ukraine crisis has already harmed Kazakhstan economically, and the
desire is to prevent any further damage. Tengri News (Kazakhstan) and Jamestown

****
**** How analysts used the Doppler Effect to locate Malaysia flight MH370
****

Monday's dramatic announcement from Kuala Lumpur that Malaysian
Airlines flight 370 had with certainty "ended in the southern Indian
Ocean" west of Perth meant the families of the passengers on the
flight could no longer hope that their family members were still alive
somewhere. It's interesting that after a couple of weeks of knowing
almost nothing, suddenly officials can be certain where the plane went
down.

If you've ever stood and watched a train or a noisy truck drive by you
at high speed, then you may have noticed that the noise coming from
the vehicle changed pitch as the vehicle went past. As the vehicle
was approaching you, the sound waves coming from the vehicle were
being squeezed together, creating a higher pitch. As the vehicle was
moving away from you, the sound waves were being stretched out,
creating a lower pitch sound. If you had equipment that could
precisely measure these two pitches, then you would be able to use
that data to compute the speed of the vehicle. If you studied physics
in high school, then you may recall that this phenomenon is called
"the Doppler Effect."

What a company called Inmarsat did was use the same principle to
compute the speed and direction of MH370. The plane's engines would
send out a "ping" every hour of so that would be received by an
Inmarsat satellite. There was no information in the transmission,
just "I am here" ping. By measuring tiny differences in the
frequencies of successive pings, and using the Doppler effect, the
engineers were able to determine with certainty that the plane had
crashed into the southern Indian ocean. The Star (Kuala Lumpur) and Ars Technica



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Jonathan Pollard,
Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, Abkhazia,
South Ossetia, Malaysia, Inmarsat, Doppler effect

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Overlapping spheres of influence.

The end of NATO?