Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 51







Post#1251 at 03-25-2014 07:48 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
---
03-25-2014, 07:48 PM #1251
Join Date
May 2007
Posts
6,371

On another thread I posted quotes about a growing alliance between Turkey and China. The latest information I have (dated last year) Turkey was going to buy arms-an antimissile system-from China.







Post#1252 at 03-25-2014 08:03 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-25-2014, 08:03 PM #1252
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
On another thread I posted quotes about a growing alliance between Turkey and China. The latest information I have (dated last year) Turkey was going to buy arms-an antimissile system-from China.
** 25-Oct-13 World View -- Turkey considers Chinese missile defenses, violating Nato agreements
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...25.htm#e131025







Post#1253 at 03-25-2014 08:32 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
---
03-25-2014, 08:32 PM #1253
Join Date
May 2007
Posts
6,371

Yes indeed, old alignments/alliances seem to be unraveling.







Post#1254 at 03-25-2014 10:55 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-25-2014, 10:55 PM #1254
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

26-Mar-14 World View -- Vietnam, Philippines unite vs China in South China Sea

*** 26-Mar-14 World View -- Vietnam, Philippines unite to confront China in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Arab League holds annual meeting among bitter splits
  • Vietnam, Philippines unite to confront China in South China Sea
  • Ebola virus spreading from Guinea to Liberia


****
**** Arab League holds annual meeting among bitter splits
****



Arab League meeting on Tuesday (AP)

The 69 year old Arab League is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday at the
time in its history when it's most divided.

Qatar's support of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt and Saudi
Arabia refer to as a terrorist organization, has resulted in a bitter
dispute that cause Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and
Bahrain to recall their ambassadors from Qatar, as we recently reported.

Even more pressing is the issue of Syria, which has rendered the Arab
League helpless and impotent in the face of 150,000 Syrian deaths, and
millions of Syrian refugees. If the Arab League can't do anything
about such a serious problem, then what is it good for?

In fact, there's a whole list of issues facing the Arab League,
especially since the beginning of the "Arab Spring." In Egypt, Syria,
Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Bahrain, and Somalia -- all
members of the Arab League -- there's a war going on, or at least
there's some disturbance and disorder in each country. That's about
half the countries of the Arab League. And there's no sign that
anything is going to improve soon. Arab News (Saudi Arabia) and
Al Jazeera (Qatar)

****
**** Vietnam, Philippines unite to confront China in South China Sea
****


Vietnam and the Philippines are natural allies in the face of China's
belligerent actions in the South China Sea. China is threatening to
use its massive military force to annex the entire South China Sea,
including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. According to the Chinese,
these countries have no rights to anything outside their 12-mile
territorial seas, while China has the right annex everything else.
The Chinese are using what is being called a "salami slicing
strategy," described as: "the slow accumulation of small actions, none
of which is a casus belli, but which add up over time to a major
strategic change." (You should not miss the point, Dear Reader, that
China and Russia both feel they have the right to annex other
countries' territories, especially since apparently no one is willing
to stop them.)

According to Philippine and Vietnamese analysts, when the Philippines
last year brought a complaint against China's actions in the South
China Sea to the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal, the Chinese "were
really unprepared for that and were really embarrassed by it." The
reason the Chinese are upset is "because they already have five
battlefields — the political, diplomatic, mass media, security,
military — and now [the Philippines] added a sixth: the legal
battlefield. The Chinese have a saying, 'when the flag is in your
hands, don't yield it to others.'" Beijing is very much at sea on the
legal front, with little experience in international law.

The downside of the Philippines legal master stroke is that the
Philippines replaced Vietnam as China's number one harassment target.
It used to be that the Chinese regularly attacked Vietnam boats. (see
"10-Jun-11 News -- Vietnam protests Chinese attack on Vietnamese survey ships"
). But in
the last couple of years, China has annexed the Philippines'
Scarborough Shoal, and harassed Philippine fishing boats around the
Spratly islands. In the meantime, relations between Vietnam and China
have been improving, though unless China has changed policies in the
South China Sea, that improvement won't last long. Foreign Policy in Focus and RSIS (India)

****
**** Ebola virus spreading from Guinea to Liberia
****


The Ebola virus appears to be spreading from Guinea to neighboring
Liberia, and is also threatening Sierra Leone. The disease spreads
through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person. At
least 86 cases and 9 deaths have been recorded. Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Arab League, Syria, Egypt, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Muslim Brotherhood,
Vietnam, Philippines, China, South China Sea,
United Nations Arbitral Tribunal, Ebola, Guinea,
Liberia, Sierra Leone

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1255 at 03-26-2014 10:35 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-26-2014, 10:35 PM #1255
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

27-Mar-14 World View -- CAR peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'

*** 27-Mar-14 World View -- Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'
  • Iran's Supreme Leader fears Great Islamic Revolution will be forgotten
  • John Kerry embraces Iran's Supreme Leader fatwa scam


****
**** Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'
****



Soldiers from Misca, the African Union peacekeeping mission

The 6,000 man African Union peacekeeping force, known by its acronym
Misca, has designated the Christian "anti-balaka" militias in Central
African Republic as "terrorists" and "enemy combatants," following a
wave of anti-balaka attacks on Misca soldiers, and the killing on
Monday of a Misca peacekeeping soldier from the Republic of Congo.
According to a Misca statement:

<QUOTE>"Henceforth, MISCA considers anti-balakas as
terrorists and enemy combatants, and they shall be treated
accordingly."<END QUOTE>

Although 2,000 French soldiers and 6,000 Misca soldiers have been
deployed as peacekeepers, the violence in Central African Republic
(CAR) has not been quelled. In fact, as I've been saying for
months, this is spiraling into a full-scale generational crisis
war that will be enveloped by tribal massacres on a massive
scale.

Muslim Seleka militias began killing Christians last year, after a
coup by Muslim leader Michel Djotodia. There were predictions last
year of revenge by Christians. The international community forced
Djotodia to step down in January, in the hope that his doing so would
quiesce the Christians, but that hope was in vain.

As I've explained, CAR's last generational crisis war was the
1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a
very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis
era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.

The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French
colonialists, but it also had it share of the same kind of tribal
violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends,
the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were
perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives
to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or
grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have
passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the
last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from
starting, and that's what's happening now. French and African Union
peacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on it, but nothing will
stop it now.

In fact, young people in CAR today certainly have heard of the
Kongo-Wara war, just as Americans have heard of WW II. But what do
they know? Nobody's told them about the its horrors. What the
Muslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war heroes because
they killed thousands of French and Christians, while the Christians
have heard that their great-grandfathers were even bigger heroes,
because they slaughtered even more Muslims. Now all of them want
to be new generations of heroes.

If the Misca peacekeepers are now going to treat the Christians as
enemy combatants, then this crisis war will be moving to the next
stage. It will no longer be just CAR residents versus CAR residents.
It will also be a war between CAR residents and soldiers from other
nations.

I have not seen any reports about the role of the French peacekeepers
in this declaration of enemy combatants, but as the situation
deteriorates it would not be surprising to see the French embroiled in
the war as well. AFP and BBC and Reuters

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader fears Great Islamic Revolution will be forgotten
****


Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, that climaxed in 1987 with
Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons. These crisis wars are at
the heart of generational theory, because the traumatized generations
of survivors of these wars create austere rules and institutions to
keep the same thing from happening to their children and
grandchildren. As the younger generations come of age, they rebel
against this austerity, creating a "generation gap" and a generational
Awakening era, as happened in America in the 1960s.

Iran is going through an Awakening era today, and the Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is becoming panicked because younger
generations don't appreciate the sacrifices that his generation had to
make. In a speech to young people earlier this week, Khamenei said
that "The memory of the Sacred Defense era must be kept alive" and
warned against the efforts of 'some' who seek to erase the war’s
values and historical memory:

<QUOTE>"The front of the enemies of the Islamic system,
meaning these European governments and the American government,
encouraged Saddam’s Ba’athist regime to continue the war by
providing him advanced capabilities and equipment. This matter
caused the Imposed War to last for eight years.

But God almighty showed his hand of power and crushed the mouths
of the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the iron fist
of divine tradition and rubbed their noses to the dirt.

The greatest lesson of the Islamic Revolution to the Iranian
nation was that the path of achieving high ideals is fighting,
sacrificing and persevering for these ideals.

Those who wish ill for the Iranian nation and also some [others]
are seeking to erase from memory the sacrifices of the Sacred
Defense era and its prominent figures. On this basis, they are
making efforts to prescript the sacrifices of the Sacred Defense
and the path that the great Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
Khamenei's predecessor] the wise and sage servant of God, had
determined."<END QUOTE>

Khamenei is expressing the same frustrations and the same kinds of
warnings that Presidents Johnson and Nixon expressed during America's
Awakening era, and were the victims of violent protests by young
people. These Awakening era political battles are almost always
(though not always) won by young people because the older generations
die off. AEI Iran Tracker

****
**** John Kerry embraces Iran's Supreme Leader fatwa scam
****


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he has high regard
for the fatwa issued by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei a decade ago. According to Kerry:

<QUOTE>"I show a lot of respect for this fatwa as it is a
religious message and is highly respected by people."<END QUOTE>

The problem, as I wrote last week,

is that even Iranian scholars do not believe that this fatwa exists.
Khamenei doesn't list it on the fatwa page of his web site, and no one
has ever seen the actual text of the fatwa.

Apparently the tales of this fatwa began with a statement published
in 2005 by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) announcing
the fatwa:

<QUOTE>"The Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei has issued the Fatwa that the production, stockpiling
and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the
Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these
weapons."<END QUOTE>

As far as I can tell, that press report was the original mention of
the fatwa, and that sentence has been repeated over and over since
then.

Of course, Ayatollah Khamenei could clear up this confusion at
any time. Did he issue this fatwa or not? He never says.

In my opinion, this is a scam and a fraud being perpetrated by Iran's
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. What looks to be the
case is as follows: Khamenei never issued the fatwa, but got IRNA to
publish a report saying that he HAD issued the fatwa. So he has the
best of both worlds. He's got Kerry and everyone else quoting his
non-existent fatwa, but when crunch time comes, he'll say, "Oh no,
there was no fatwa. IRNA got it wrong." He could clarify things
today if he wanted to, but he doesn't want to because he's scamming
President Obama, Kerry, the West, and everyone else, and getting away
with it.

If anyone out there disagrees, it's easy enough to prove me wrong.
Find a published copy of the text of the entire fatwa, and then show
an official affirmation that Khamenei issued it. Radio Zamaneh and IRNA (2005)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Seleka, anti-balaka, African Union, Misca, France,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, fatwa scam,
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, John Kerry

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1256 at 03-27-2014 02:05 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
03-27-2014, 02:05 PM #1256
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Happy Birthday, John Xenakis.

EDITED for clarity.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 03-27-2014 at 03:22 PM.







Post#1257 at 03-27-2014 02:32 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
---
03-27-2014, 02:32 PM #1257
Join Date
Jul 2002
Location
Arlington, VA 1956
Posts
9,209

Question

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Happy Birthday.
To who?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#1258 at 03-27-2014 05:25 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-27-2014, 05:25 PM #1258
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Happy Birthday, John Xenakis.

EDITED for clarity.
Thanks, but birthdays suck.







Post#1259 at 03-27-2014 10:25 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-27-2014, 10:25 PM #1259
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

28-Mar-14 World View -- Pentagon concerned that Russia is about to invade Ukraine

*** 28-Mar-14 World View -- Pentagon concerned that Russia is about to invade Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Obama to meet Saudi King Abdullah among significant policy differences
  • Pentagon concerned that Russia is about to invade Ukraine


****
**** Obama to meet Saudi King Abdullah among significant policy differences
****



President Obama was heavily criticized for bowing to King Abdullah during his last visit to Saudi Arabia

resident Barack Obama visits Saudi Arabia on Friday, and will meet
with the King, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. There are significant
policy differences separating the two:

  • King Abdullah first broke with President Obama during the
    "Egyptian Revolution" at the start of the "Arab Spring" in January
    2011. In Abdullah's view, Obama humiliated Egypt's president Hosni
    Mubarak and encouraged him to step down. Abdullah believes Mubarak
    supported U.S. policy for decades, even when it wasn't popular to do
    so, and Obama repaid him by throwing him under the bus. Abdullah
    concluded that Obama would not hesitate to throw him under the bus
    just as easily.
  • After President Obama's "red line" flip-flop on Syria last year,
    Abdullah was so furious that he turned down an opportunity to appoint
    a Saudi to the United Nations Security Council. He accused Obama and
    the United Nations of hypocrisy, for allowing Syria's president
    Bashar al-Assad to kill and displace millions of civilians with
    impunity.
  • The Saudis believe that Obama is going to permit Iran to
    develop a nuclear bomb, and fears that it will be used on
    Saudi Arabia.
  • The Saudis consider Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist
    group, but Obama has all but broken relations with Egypt since last
    year's army coup that ousted president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim
    Brotherhood government. This issue has split the Arab world, with
    Qatar supporting the MB, and Saudi Arabia is one of three countries
    that have withdrawn their ambassadors from Qatar. Abdullah believes
    that Obama is a supporter of two of his enemies, Iran and the Muslim
    Brotherhood.


Saudi Gazette and VOA

****
**** Pentagon concerned that Russia is about to invade Ukraine
****


U.S. officials are saying that Russian troops have been flooding into
the region along the border with Ukraine in the last few days. The
estimates of the number of troops range from 30,000 to 80,000, with
Ukrainian officials claiming that the number is as high as 100,000.

Nato's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove has said
that the Russian force on the border "is very, very sizable and very,
very ready." Since the Russian troops are deployed right on the edge
of Ukraine's border, if they do invade then there'll be no advance
warning, and no chance for Ukraine's forces to react. A U.S. defense
official says that if Russia were to invade, then this would be "far
from a bloodless event as we saw in Crimea," although the Ukrainian
army would be defeated. It's possible that the Russian forces could
push through Ukraine to the other end very quickly, to annex Moldova's
separatist territory Transdniestria, which is on Ukraine's western
border. VOA and AFP and Fox News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud,
Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Syria, Iran, Qatar,
Russia, Ukraine, Philip Breedlove, Moldova, Transdniestria

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1260 at 03-27-2014 10:37 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
---
03-27-2014, 10:37 PM #1260
Join Date
Nov 2012
Posts
3,073

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 28-Mar-14 World View -- Pentagon concerned that Russia is about to invade Ukraine


**** Pentagon concerned that Russia is about to invade Ukraine
****


U.S. officials are saying that Russian troops have been flooding into
the region along the border with Ukraine in the last few days. The
estimates of the number of troops range from 30,000 to 80,000, with
Ukrainian officials claiming that the number is as high as 100,000.

Nato's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove has said
that the Russian force on the border "is very, very sizable and very,
very ready." Since the Russian troops are deployed right on the edge
of Ukraine's border, if they do invade then there'll be no advance
warning, and no chance for Ukraine's forces to react. A U.S. defense
official says that if Russia were to invade, then this would be "far
from a bloodless event as we saw in Crimea," although the Ukrainian
army would be defeated. It's possible that the Russian forces could
push through Ukraine to the other end very quickly, to annex Moldova's
separatist territory Transdniestria, which is on Ukraine's western
border. VOA and AFP and Fox News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud,
Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Syria, Iran, Qatar,
Russia, Ukraine, Philip Breedlove, Moldova, Transdniestria

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
If Russia messes with Moldova, it will not go well. At that point, Romania would be obligated by blood relations with Moldova that stretch back at least 2000 years. If Romania enters the fray, then Poland will also feel an obligation. At that point, it would be a real world NATO engagement against The Bear.







Post#1261 at 03-27-2014 10:56 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-27-2014, 10:56 PM #1261
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
> If Russia messes with Moldova, it will not go well. At that point,
> Romania would be obligated by blood relations with Moldova that
> stretch back at least 2000 years. If Romania enters the fray, then
> Poland will also feel an obligation. At that point, it would be a
> real world NATO engagement against The Bear.
Is that really true? I don't disagree with any of your facts, but
we're living in a time when everyone puts appeasement ahead of any
risk. Moldova and Romania might be furious, but would they actually
do anything -- with no way of being sure that Nato would get involved
-- or would they just sit there and watch?







Post#1262 at 03-27-2014 11:43 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
---
03-27-2014, 11:43 PM #1262
Join Date
May 2007
Posts
6,371

One difference between now and the WWII era is that the major powers have WMD.
Last edited by TimWalker; 03-27-2014 at 11:53 PM.







Post#1263 at 03-28-2014 09:45 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
03-28-2014, 09:45 AM #1263
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
One difference between now and the WWII era is that the major powers have WMD.
One major difference between the World Wars and the Napoleonic ones is that the former had planes, trains, and machine guns. Didn't stop 'em from happening.







Post#1264 at 03-28-2014 11:41 AM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
---
03-28-2014, 11:41 AM #1264
Join Date
Jul 2002
Location
Arlington, VA 1956
Posts
9,209

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Thanks, but birthdays suck.
They're better than the alternative, no?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#1265 at 03-28-2014 04:02 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-28-2014, 04:02 PM #1265
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Thanks, but birthdays suck.

Quote Originally Posted by The Wonkette View Post
They're better than the alternative, no?

At my age, I'm not sure which is better.

(Jack Benny walks down the street, and he's stopped by a thug who
points a gun at him and says, "Hey buddy! Your money or your life!"

Jack Benny looks at the thug, then looks at the audience, who by now
are in hysterical laughter, and then turns back and stares at the
thug.

The thug repeats, "Hey! I SAID your money or your life!"

Jack Benny says, "I'm thinking! I'm thinking!")

John







Post#1266 at 03-28-2014 10:41 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-28-2014, 10:41 PM #1266
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

29-Mar-14 World View -- Christians versus Muslims in Central African Republic

*** 29-Mar-14 World View -- Christians versus Muslims in Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Christians versus Muslims in Central African Republic
  • Who's at fault for the Holocaust?
  • War and Peace
  • Russia's Vladimir Putin calls Obama to discuss Ukraine


****
**** Christians versus Muslims in Central African Republic
****



A member of an armed Christian group with a machete in Bangui, Central African Republic (AP)

Articles on current events in the Central African Republic (CAR) such
as the one I posted
two days ago
often generate a great deal of commentary. Last year, Muslim Seleka
militias killed tens of thousands of Christians and drove 400,000 from
their homes. This year, Christian anti-balaka militias have
retaliated with vengeance, massacring hundreds of thousands of
Muslims, and have driven millions more from their homes -- so far.
Muslims are just 15% of CAR's population, and some anti-balaka leaders
are promising to kill every Muslim that doesn't flee the country.
This is a fact. I may not like this fact, and you may not like this
fact, but it's a fact nonetheless.

One response is to say that the Christians in CAR are just defending
themselves from the Muslims. I won't disagree with that, except to
say that anti-balaka leaders saying that they're going to kill all the
Muslims seems to me to cross the line from self-defense into genocide.

Another standard response is to say that the Christians in CAR aren't
really Christians. This is the same response often given to the fact
that millions of Christian Church-going Nazis attempted to exterminate
the Jews. According to this response, the Holocaust happened because
Hitler wasn't really a Christian. Well, my understanding is that if
you've been baptized in Christ, then you're a Christian, and that
there's no further litmus test. But OK, let's ignore that.

This response is very hard to defend, because you would also have to
claim that all those millions of church-going Nazis were also not
Christian. But OK, let's ignore that.

Question: How do you know that Hitler and the Nazis weren't Christian?
Answer: Because they perpetrated the Holocaust. So this is circular
reasoning. Christians didn't commit the Holocaust because Nazis
weren't Christians, and Nazis weren't Christians because they
committed the Holocaust. But OK, let's ignore even all those
problems.

OK, so let's just accept that explanation: Hitler and the Nazis
weren't Christian, because they perpetrated the Holocaust.

****
**** Who's at fault for the Holocaust?
****


But now you have another problem, because the same argument can be
turned against you. The Muslim jihadists are killing some Christians,
but they're mostly killing other Muslims -- millions and millions of
Muslims. The same is true of Bashar al-Assad's genocide against Sunni
women and children. You can claim that the Koran justifies these
killings, but it doesn't. The Koran may or may not justify killing
Christians (it's debatable) and other "infidels," but what the
jihadists and al-Assad are doing is killing Muslims -- and that's
clearly a violation of the Koran. And so by the same reasoning
that people use to say Nazis weren't really Christians can be
used to say that the jihadists aren't really Muslims.

In other words, if Hitler wasn't a real Christian, then Osama bin
Laden wasn't a real Muslim, for the same reason.

And so, if you can't blame Christians for the Holocaust, because
Hitler wasn't a real Christian, then you can't blame Muslims for 9/11,
because OBL wasn't a real Muslim.

Lots of people point to the fact that most massacres being conducted
today are by Muslims, albeit mostly to other Muslims. That's
certainly true. All you have to do is look at Pakistan or Syria, for
example, to see it happen.

But I think there's a more interesting question. Let's turn the
question around. Instead of asking why Muslims are most often
the perpetrators of massacres, let's ask instead why Muslims
are most often the victims of massacres. Muslims are the victims
of massacres by Muslims in Pakistan and Syria, by Buddhists
in Myanmar (Burma), and by Christians in Central African Republic.

What is there about this particular point in history that makes
Muslims the most massacred group in the world? From the point of view
of generational theory, that's a very interesting question. Muslims
are the most massacred people in the world today. Why is that?

Some people would say that the reason that Muslims are the most
massacred people in the world today is because a lot of the world is
angry for terrorist acts like 9/11. Once again, that reason would be
difficult to defend, because it doesn't explain why Muslims are
massacring Muslims.

****
**** War and Peace
****


In his monumental book War and Peace, Leo Tolstoy recounts
Napoleon's invasion of Russia. But Tolstoy is completely stumped and
frustrated about why the war occurred at all, especially because the
people on both sides were Christians. Here's what he wrote:

<QUOTE>"It naturally seemed to Napoleon that the war was
caused by England's intrigues (as in fact he said on the island of
St. Helena). It naturally seemed to members of the English
Parliament that the cause of the war was Napoleon's ambition; to
the Duke of Oldenburg, that the cause of the war was the violence
done to him; to businessmen that the cause of the war was the
Continental System which was ruining Europe; to the generals and
old soldiers that the chief reason for the war was the necessity
of giving them employment; to the legitimists of that day that it
was the need of re-establishing les bons principes, and to
the diplomatists of that time that it all resulted from the fact
that the alliance between Russia and Austria in 1809 had not been
sufficiently well concealed from Napoleon, and from the awkward
wording of Memorandum No. 178.

It is natural that these and a countless and infinite quantity of
other reasons, the number depending on the endless diversity of
points of view, presented themselves to the men of that day; but
to us, to posterity who view the thing that happened in all its
magnitude and perceive its plain and terrible meaning, these
causes seem insufficient.

To us it is incomprehensible that millions of Christian men killed
and tortured each other either because Napoleon was ambitious or
Alexander was firm, or because England's policy was astute or the
Duke of Oldenburg wronged. We cannot grasp what connection such
circumstances have with the actual fact of slaughter and violence:
why because the Duke was wronged, thousands of men from the other
side of Europe killed and ruined the people of Smolensk and Moscow
and were killed by them."<END QUOTE>

Generational theory does provide some answers to these questions, and
it has nothing to do with religion. It has to do with being human.
Just as Christians can have inappropriate sex, they can also have
inappropriate wars. If humans did not have sex, then the human race
would die out. If humans did not have genocidal wars of
extermination, then the human race would not survive, because it's
only through wars of extermination that the strongest tribes,
societies and nations become the leaders.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these wars of
extermination are generational crisis wars. When one of these
horrific wars occurs, the generations of survivors vow to do
everything possible to keep anything like that from happening to their
children and grandchildren. They succeed in that, but when the
survivor generations die off, then the younger generations, with no
personal memory of the crisis war, have no motivation to keep it from
happening again. And so the next generational crisis war begins,
usually around 60 or more years after the end of the last one.

Going back to Central African Republic, the last generational crisis
war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"),
which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a
generational Crisis era. There are probably no survivors left from
the Kongo-Wara Rebellion, and so it's not surprising at all that a new
war of extermination is breaking out in CAR today.

****
**** Russia's Vladimir Putin calls Obama to discuss Ukraine
****


The White House announced on Friday that Russia's president
Vladimir Putin placed a phone call to U.S. president Barack
Obama to discuss a diplomatic resolution to the crisis in
Ukraine. According to the White House statement:

<QUOTE>"President Obama noted that the Ukrainian government
continues to take a restrained and de-escalatory approach to the
crisis and is moving ahead with constitutional reform and
democratic elections, and urged Russia to support this process and
avoid further provocations, including the buildup of forces on its
border with Ukraine. ...

President Obama made clear that [a diplomatic solution] remains
possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take
any steps to further violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and
sovereignty. President Obama reiterated that the United States
has strongly opposed the actions that Russia has already taken to
violate Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity."<END QUOTE>

Russia issued its own statement:

<QUOTE>"Vladimir Putin drew Barack Obama’s attention to
continued rampage of extremists who are committing acts of
intimidation towards peaceful residents, government authorities
and law enforcement agencies in various regions and in Kiev with
impunity. In light of this, the President of Russia suggested
examining possible steps the global community can take to help
stabilize the situation. The two presidents agreed that specific
parameters for this joint work will be discussed by the Russian
and US foreign ministers in the near future."<END QUOTE>

This reads to me like a standard attempt to buy enough time so that
the world will forget what Putin is doing. By referring to "continued
rampage of extremists who are committing acts of intimidation towards
peaceful residents," Putin is preparing a case for military action
in Ukraine, and for not removing his troops from Ukraine's border.
He could order his troops into Ukraine next week, and then claim
that Obama didn't propose a way to protect "peaceful residents,"
so he had to do it.

We'll see if anything changes now. Politico


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Christians, Muslims, Seleka, anti-balaka, Hitler, Holocaust,
Osama bin Laden, Pakistan, Syria, Myanmar, Burma,
Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace, Russia, France, Napoleon,
Vladimir Putin, Ukraine

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1267 at 03-29-2014 11:17 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-29-2014, 11:17 PM #1267
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

30-Mar-14 World View-U.N. promises 'response' to North Korea firing midrange missiles

*** 30-Mar-14 World View -- U.N. promises 'response' to North Korea firing midrange missiles

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • New car bombing in Lebanon continues sectarian strife
  • U.N. promises 'response' to North Korea firing midrange missiles
  • Crimean Tatars vote to push for self-rule


****
**** New car bombing in Lebanon continues sectarian strife
****



Syrian children play at a refugee camp in Arsal on Friday. A suicide car bomb exploded on Saturday. (AFP)

A suicide bomber on Saturday evening drove his black Kia automobile,
laden with explosives, to an army checkpoint in Arsal, a Lebanon town
on the border with Syria, and detonated the explosives, killing three
soldiers and four others. A Sunni jihadist terrorist group, Free
Sunnis of Baalbek Battalion, claimed responsibility for the bombing.
The group first became known in December when it took responsibility
for the assassination of a senior commander of the Iran-funded
Hezbollah militant group outside his home.

The string of terrorist attacks in Lebanon was triggered by a
televised announcement, last April 30 by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah, saying that Hezbollah would militarily enter the fight in
Syria on the side of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
Al-Assad is conducting "industrial strength" torture and extermination
on his own civilians, particularly targeting innocent Sunni women and
children, which has enraged Sunnis throughout the Mideast.
Hezbollah's support for al-Assad has caused the sectarian war in Syria
to spill over into Lebanon. Daily Star (Lebanon) and LA Times

****
**** U.N. promises 'response' to North Korea firing midrange missiles
****


The United Nations Security Council has threatened a quick
"appropriate response" to North Korea, for having launched two
medium-range Rodong ballistic missiles into the sea earlier this week.
According to the Security Council president:

<QUOTE>"Members of the Security Council condemned this launch
as a violation of Security Council resolution(s). Council members
agreed to consult on an appropriate response.

There was unanimous condemnation of the launches. ... We also all
agreed that this response should be given quickly."<END QUOTE>

The firings raised concerns, because these are the first missiles
that North Korea would use to launch an attack on either South
Korea or Japan.

No clue was provided for what an "appropriate response" might be.
However, it's thought that the only country in a position to provide
any response at all is China, and China has been consistently
unwilling in the past to consider any response at all to the North
Koreans.

The North Koreans fired the missiles on March 26. It was on March 26,
2010, just four years ago, that the North Koreans launched a torpedo
at a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, sinking it and killing 46
people. (See "27-Mar-11 News -- South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves"
.) After this incident, China refused to condemn or
even criticize the North Koreans. Reuters

****
**** Crimean Tatars vote to push for self-rule
****


A congress of Crimea's 300,000 strong Tatar community met on Saturday
and voted to push for autonomy from Russia, but remained divided
on how best to achieve that goal.

Crimea is the historic homeland of the Tatars. In 1944, Russia's
dictator Josef Stalin deported 200,000 Tatars from Crimea to central
Asia, accusing them of collaborating with the Nazis. It was only in
the 1980s and 1990s that the Tatars returned in large numbers to
Crimea, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union and
Ukraine's independence. The Tatars are scared to death of being under
the control of the Russians again, and they're particularly concerned
about Moscow's frequent reference to "Nazis" in Kiev, which they see
as a possible signal that they're going to be accused of rom new
collaboration again.

On Saturday, the congress adopted a resolution entitled "On the
Crimean Tatar people's right to self-determination on their historical
territory in Crimea." According to the chairman,

<QUOTE>"By adopting this document, we inform all parties of
the beginning of political and legal procedures for setting up a
national autonomous territory of the Crimean Tatar people on their
historical territory in Crimea."<END QUOTE>

This was adopted after hours of sometimes angry debate, with no
conclusions reached whether to seek an autonomous entity in Ukraine or
in Crimea, which is now part of Russia. AFP and Interfax-Ukraine


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Arsal, Lebanon, Free Sunnis of Baalbek Battalion,
Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
North Korea, Rodong ballistic missiles, South Korea, Cheonan, China,
Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Tatars

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1268 at 03-30-2014 10:51 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-30-2014, 10:51 PM #1268
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

31-Mar-14 World View -- France's president François Hollande suffers election debacle

*** 31-Mar-14 World View -- France's president François Hollande suffers election debacle

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Thailand approaches a crisis point in anti-government riots
  • France's president François Hollande suffers election debacle
  • Russia, U.S. remain deadlocked over Ukraine after 4 hours talks
  • Michael Lewis: How the stock market is rigged


****
**** Thailand approaches a crisis point in anti-government riots
****



'Red Shirt' pro-government protesters earlier this week (Bangkok Post)

Thailand's "red shirt" supporters of prime minister Yingluck
Shinawatra have remained relatively quiet, in the face of "yellow
shirt" anti-government protests that have been going on since
December. But on Monday Yingluck will have to defend herself against
corruption charges before a National Anti-Corruption Commission
(NACC), and if the commission recommends impeachment, then it could
trigger counter-protests and riots by the "red shirt" supporters.

The anti-government protesters are demanding that prime minister
Yingluck Shinawatra resign, and allow the protesters to appoint an
unelected "People's Council" that will rule in place of the elected
government. The Bangkok protests are a clash between two ethnic
groups: the "yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese
elite minority, vastly outnumbered by the "red shirt" dark-skinned
Thai-Thai who do most of the menial labor, and who continue to support
the Yingluck's Pheu Thai political party. Because of the Thai-Thai
majority, the Pheu Thai have won the last five elections and can
continue to do so. That's why the elite Thai-Chinese anti-government
protesters want to throw out democracy and replace the elected
government with their own People's Council that they can control.

There are fears that any red shirt march on Bangkok could end in a
bloodbath, similar to one that occurred in 2010. Reuters

****
**** France's president François Hollande suffers election debacle
****


Sunday's nationwide municipal elections in France have dealt a
stunning blow to president François Hollande and his governing
Socialist party. Turnout was low, and it's thought that the reason is
that his supporters, furious that he's not left-wing enough and
embarrassed by his scandals, stayed home without bothering to vote.

France's economy has been tanking. The number of people out of work
is at a record high, and earlier this month, the European Commission
warned that France's debt is going out of control, blaming it on lack
of competitiveness in the unfavorable business environment:

<QUOTE>"France is projected to miss both headline deficit and
structural adjustment targets over the entire forecast period.

Despite measures taken to foster competitiveness, so far there is
limited evidence of rebalancing. While wages have developed in
line with productivity, the labor cost remains high and weighs on
firms’ profit margins.

The unfavorable business environment, and in particular the low
level of competition in services, further aggravate the
competitiveness challenge. In addition, rigidities in the wage
setting system result in difficulties for firms to adjust wages to
productivity."<END QUOTE>

Further, President Hollande has been through two recent scandals
that would be fit for a televised situation comedy.

The first occurred in January, when Hollande called a reporter
and announced:

<QUOTE>"I wish to make it known that I have ended my
partnership with Valérie Trierweiler."<END QUOTE>

Trierweiler was his 48 year old girlfriend, who had lived with him in
the Élysée Palace since he took office last year. But a reporter had
discovered that Hollande was sneaking out of the Palace and spending
nights with a 41 year old actress, Julie Gayet.

The second recent scandal occurred earlier this month, over an
investigation in the wiretapping of the phone of Hollande's
predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy. Hollande denied that this government
had anything to do with it, and France's Justice Minister Christiane
Taubira gave a press conference denied knowing anything about it.
During the press conference she held up two documents, assuming that
no one could read them. But Le Monde was able to zoom in and read the
documents, and the documents proved that she was lying, as she had to
admit the next day.

Beyond the theatre, French voters were looking for a change. Many had
expected Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front party would score
well in the elections. The National Front did well, though not nearly
as well as they had hoped. The big winner was the center-right Union
for Popular Movement (UMP), which is headed by Nicolas Sarkozy.
However, Sarkozy himself is also under investigation, for involvement
in irregular party funding practices (which is the reason why his
phone was being tapped in the first place). BBC and Reuters and Reuters

****
**** Russia, U.S. remain deadlocked over Ukraine after 4 hours talks
****


US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov talked for four hours on Sunday, with no agreement. At the
end, according to the BBC, Lavrov looked "satisfied," while Kerry
"just looked tired." (I believe I also heard an on-air female BBC
reporter actually say, "Awwww. Couldn't they reach any agreement?
That's a shame.") Lavrov denied that Russia has any plans for an
invasion, but continued to lay the groundwork for such an invasion, by
calling the government in Kiev "fascists," jeopardizing the safety of
ethnic Russians and Russian speakers. Russian troops massed on
Ukraine's borders will not be pulled back. The impression, according
to the BBC, is that the U.S. is "bending over backwards" in the hope
of getting a diplomatic solution. The meeting had been arranged on
Friday, when Russia's president Vladimir Putin telephoned President
Barack Obama. BBC

****
**** Michael Lewis: How the stock market is rigged
****


Most people who are active in the stock market these days
are large hedge funds and institutional investors, who run
"high-frequency computerized stock trading" shops. These huge
companies have invested millions of dollars in software algorithms
and high-speed networking to be able to make dozens of stock
trades in a second.

So it won't come as a surprise to anyone that the wealthiest investors
have rigged the stock market so that they can make unethical profits
at the expense of less fortunate investors. According to best-selling
financial investigative reporter Michael Lewis, they use a technique
called "front running."

The way it works is that if you buy a million shares of something,
then your order will go through another company's computer. That
computer will allow only half your order to go through. Then it will
purchase the other half of your order, and resell it to you at a
higher price. All this goes on in a fraction of a second on a
computer server in New Jersey linked to the NY Stock Exchange.
CBS News 60 Minutes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Bangkok, Yingluck Shinawatra,
France, François Hollande, Julie Gayet, Valérie Trierweiler
Nicolas Sarkozy, Marine Le Pen, Christiane Taubira,
Russia, Sergei Lavrov, Vladimir Putin, John Kerry,
Michael Lewis, high frequency trading

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1269 at 03-31-2014 08:47 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
03-31-2014, 08:47 AM #1269
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

I wouldn't overstate the ethnic Chinese angle in the Thai unrest. It's true that Thai-Chinese are disproportionately represented in the business and political elites in the capital tha make up the PAD base of support, however, it's not really where the line is. The Shinawatras themselves are Thai Chinese, as is the Royal family in part. There are also lots of ethnic Thai people from the central region who support the PAD. You should look some more into the regional splits in Thailand, particularly between the Isan and Lanna regions versus the core based in Bangkok-Ayutthaya . The Isan region in particular is a big base of support for the Red Shirts, and they're more Lao than Thai.







Post#1270 at 03-31-2014 10:27 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
03-31-2014, 10:27 PM #1270
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

1-Apr-14 World View -- Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

*** 1-Apr-14 World View -- Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • U.S. desperately tries to salvage Mideast 'peace process'
  • Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine


****
**** U.S. desperately tries to salvage Mideast 'peace process'
****


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry departed Sunday's failed peace
talks with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and flew to
Jerusalem, where he has a "secret plan" to keep the Mideast "peace
process" from collapsing on its scheduled end day, April 29.
According to some reports, Kerry's plan is to go ahead with a
previously rumored offer to the Israelis to release spy Jonathan
Pollard, who has been in jail since 1987 for selling secrets to the
Israelis. ( "25-Mar-14 World View -- U.S. may release Jonathan Pollard to keep Mideast peace talks going"
) This would presumably incentivize the Israelis to keep
them from walking out of the hallucinatory "peace process," but it's
not known what incentive Kerry plans to offer to the Palestinians to
keep them from walking about. Arab News and Bloomberg

****
**** Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine
****


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was willing to agree to almost
anything on Sunday, during his failed four hour conversation with
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, to convince the Russians to
remove the tens of thousands of Russian troops from the Ukrainian
border. Lavrov not only refused to agree to pull back the troops, he
also demanded that Ukraine's government in Kiev rewrite the
constitution to adopt a "federal" system. The federal system will
essentially make each region of Ukraine a kind of independent
republic, similar to what Crimea was before it was annexed by Russia.
Kerry is so desperate that he would probably agree to this if it were
up to him, but it isn't -- it's up to the government in Kiev, and
they're not going to agree to this "federal" system.

With tens of thousands of Russian troops on the border with
Ukraine, being supplied with plenty of food, clothing and
spare parts, there is a great deal of concern that Russia's
president Vladimir Putin will soon give the order to invade
Ukraine.

However, some analysts are insisting that Russia won't invade,
because they can't afford it. As weak as the Western sanctions
on Russia have been, not much more stringent than preventing senior
Russian politicians from visiting Disneyland, they actually are
more effective than anyone really expected. The sanctions have
already caused many investors to voluntarily move $60-70 billion of
their money out of Russia, and it could be several hundred
billion dollars by year's end. Russia's has been depending
on oil sales, but those have been weak since the financial crisis,
and the economy is already tanking. $100 billion in capital
flight would be a disaster.

However, there are other forces at work here, and Putin may actually
have no choice but to order an invasion. Putin's approval ratings
have shot up to 75.7% among the Russian population, since the Crimean
annexation. ( "21-Mar-14 World View -- Putin's approval ratings soar in Russia over Crimea annexation"
.) The Russian people are experience passions of
ferocious intensity to achieve victories that prove Russia's
"greatness." If Putin is forced to back down in any way in Ukraine,
it could be politically disastrous for him. Instead, he may have to
find a way to maximize the "shock and awe" from his next strike.
Moscow Times and AFP and Jamestown



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Sergei Lavrov,
John Kerry, Vladimir Putin, Crimea, Israel, Jonathan Pollard

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1271 at 04-01-2014 11:10 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
04-01-2014, 11:10 PM #1271
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

2-Apr-14 World View Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives Libya

*** 2-Apr-14 World View -- Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives from Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Abbas applies to U.N. agencies as 'State of Palestine'
  • Kerry cancels meeting with Abbas and leaves Mideast
  • Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives from Libya


****
**** Abbas applies to U.N. agencies as 'State of Palestine'
****



Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday, announcing plans to apply to U.N. agencies (EPA)

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday signed applications to
join 15 international treaties and conventions as the "State of
Palestine." In November, 2012, the U.N. General Assembly voted by an
overwhelming majority to accept a Palestinian state in the West Bank,
Gaza and east Jerusalem, lands Israel occupied in 1967. The intent is
to force Israel back to its 1949 borders. It's thought that Abbas, as
leader of Palestine, plans to bring charges to the International
Criminal Court accusing Israel of war crimes and crimes against
humanity. It's unclear whether Abbas's dramatic announcement was a
negotiating tactic in the Mideast "peace process," or signaled a
fundamental shift in strategy. AP

****
**** Kerry cancels meeting with Abbas and leaves Mideast
****


For months, U.S. Secretary of State has been flying from one foreign
policy debacle after another, and that records seems to have continued
on Monday. Kerry left the Mideast and canceled meeting with Abbas
after he failed to get agreement from both sides to continue the
"peace process" after its deadline of April 29, even though,
according to reports, he offered to set U.S. spy Jonathan Pollard
free.

The Obama administration got these "peace talks" going last year by
"convincing" the Israelis to release 104 prisoners from the jails.
These prisoners had been convicted of terrorist acts prior to the 1994
Oslo accords. The release of these prisoners has been extremely
controversial in Israel, with very vocal opposition from the family
members of the people whom these terrorists had killed. The last
batch of 26 prisoners were scheduled for release last week on
Friday, but Israel has refused to release them, unless Palestinian
president Mahmoud Abbas agrees to extend the "peace talks" beyond
April 29. Abbas in turn demanded that 1,000 more prisoners
be released, including multiple murderers, and also demanded that
Israel freeze settlements.

So Kerry made a special trip to the Mideast on Monday, apparently
to convince Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to
release the prisoners, and to sweeten the deal with the release
of Jonathan Pollard. This has caused outrage in Washington from
people who point out that Pollard is a major spy, and if he's
going to be traded, he ought to be traded for something big --
like a Mideast peace deal. Instead, the offer is to trade him
for almost nothing, just an agreement to keep the "peace talks"
going for a few more months.

So we have the desperate Kerry running from his failed Ukraine peace
talks to the Mideast to bribe Netanyahu to release the prisoners, who
are being used as a bribe to get Abbas to continue the peace talks.
This is so vomit-worthy, it's almost beyond belief, except that
nothing is beyond belief these days.

Just to be clear, as we've said many times, the "peace talks" are a
joke that never had any chance. Netanyahu will never agree to return
to pre-1967 borders or "right of return," and Abbas will never agree
to recognize Israel as a Jewish state or to guarantee Israel's
security. According to some reports, the negotiators on the two sides
never even met with each other, and the only people they spoke to was
Kerry.

The "peace talks" were just for show, and now Kerry is trying to
salvage them so he won't be responsible for yet one more debacle. So
let's watch and see what the desperate Kerry and the Obama
administration are going to give up next. NPR and Debka

****
**** Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives from Libya
****


We've written several times about major terrorist attacks across
Egypt, with a Sinai terrorist group Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Bayt al
Maqdis or Champions of Jerusalem) claiming credit. Terror attacks
have been on the increase since the army coup that ousted president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government on July 3 of last
year, and Ansar Jerusalem has claimed credit for many of them. ( "17-Feb-14 World View -- Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus"
)

On March 19, Egyptian security forces raid a major bomb factory in the
village of Arab Sharkas, on the outskirts of Cairo. In addition to a
large cache of weapons and explosive belts, five tons of explosives
were found, enough to destroy the dams that control the flow of the
Nile river into the Delta. Eight terrorist cell members were
arrested.

Interrogation and investigation revealed the following:

  • The arms and explosives come from Libya. There are large
    caches of weapons and explosives that were left behind during the war
    that defeated Muammar Gaddafi. Extremist Islamist militias in eastern
    Libya transport the arms to a desert seaport in northern Egypt.
    Bedouins then smuggle the weapons through the desert eastward to the
    Delta or Upper Egypt.
  • The cell members had fought in Syria, as part of the al-Nasra
    Front. Some had received six months training in terrorist combat
    camps in Sinai.


Terrorist groups have access to large quantities of heavy weapons from
Libya. Egyptian security forces have been unable to obtain weapons,
since the U.S. and Europe refuse to deliver arms shipments to Egypt.
As a result, Egypt may be forced to turn to Russia for arms.

So, the western military intervention into Libya in 2011 was
intended to save a massacre of civilians in Benghazi, but instead
has made available large quantities of heavy weapons and explosives
being used in Egypt and a number of other countries.

And the western military non-intervention in Syria, combined with
Russia's unending shipments of heavy weapons to Syria's genocidal
monster president Bashar al-Assad for use in exterminating innocent
Sunni women and children, have turned Syria into a worldwide magnet
for jihadists, who go for military and terrorist training and
experience, to be used when they return to their home countries.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Magharebia (US Africa Command) and Al Monitor (Washington)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations,
John Kerry, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Jonathan Pollard,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, Arab Sharkas,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, Champions of Jerusalem,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Syria, al-Nusra Front, Bedouins, Sinai,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1272 at 04-02-2014 10:54 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
04-02-2014, 10:54 PM #1272
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

3-Apr-14 World View -- Russia's Vladimir Putin courts European far right

*** 3-Apr-14 World View -- Russia's Vladimir Putin courts European far right and ultranationals

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • France's Ségolène Royal gets revenge over Hollande's last girlfriend
  • Russia's Vladimir Putin courts European far right and ultranationals
  • United Nations: Violence escalates in Central African Republic
  • Ebola outbreak spreads to Conarky Guinea, causing panic in West Africa


****
**** France's Ségolène Royal gets revenge over Hollande's last girlfriend
****



Ségolène Royal

After last Sunday's election, when François Hollande's Socialist Party
did very poorly, Hollande has been forced to reshuffle his cabinet.
And now he's appointed Ségolène Royal to the cabinet, to be the French
Minister of the Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy.

Royal was Hollande's girlfriend for 30 years, and mother of his four
children, but they broke up in 2007, when Hollande took up with a new
girlfriend, Valérie Trierweiler. Royal and Trierweiler obviously
didn't get along, and had open spats in the last year. But Hollande's
relationship with Trierweiler ended dramatically in January, when
reporters from a magazine called Closer published 7 pages of
photographs of Hollande's late night trysts with a young actress,
Julie Gayet. So now, with Trierweiler out of the picture, Royal is
back in Hollande's life in a big way. However, spokesmen from
Hollande's administration deny his past relationships with Trierweiler
or Royal have anything to do with Royal's appointment, which is based
solely and purely and exclusively on her professional qualifications.

Meanwhile, Julie Gayet has done quite well for herself. She sued
Closer magazine for breach of privacy, and the court has just awarded
her 15,000 euros. AP and Euro News

****
**** Russia's Vladimir Putin courts European far right and ultranationals
****


One of the ironies of the Ukraine crisis is that, on the one hand,
Russia's president Vladimir Putin is referring to Kiev's government as
"fascists," while on the other hand, Putin is courting European
politicians with views that range from center-right to far right to
ultranational to fascist. (The phrase "far right" has a different
meaning in Europe and America.) However, in most cases, what unites
these far right European politicians is less that they love Putin and
Russia and more that they despise the European Union.

The supporters of Hungary's Jobbik party call it patriotic and
Christian, while its opponents call it everything from anti-Semitic to
fascist. According to spokesman Marton Gyongyosi, "We have an
interest in seeing a growing Russia that has in a very interesting
way defended its own interests, and which has basically created some
counter weight to the west." According to Gyongyosi, Russia is
fighting for the rights of ethnic minorities in Ukraine, including the
Hungarian minority of the Lower Carpathians. He says that the EU does
not ensure minority rights, as ethnic Hungarians suffer a major
deprivation in Slovakia and Romania alike.

Marine Le Pen, leader of France's Front Nationale party, which did
very well in last Sunday's nationwide municipal elections, was quoted
quoted favorably on Voice of Russia radio as supporting Russia’s
rights in Crimea. At a meeting in Moscow in January, Le Pen argued
that "France is not a democracy" and praised Putin for saving Bashar
al-Assad in Syria. Her colleague, Frederick Chatillon, accuses
Syria's misfortunes on a "Zionist lobby." And in Britain, the UKIP
leader Nigel Farage has spoken admiringly of Putin in recent days,
though not directly in relation to Ukraine.

In view of all this, Moscow's denunciation of Ukraine's right-wing
movements, Svoboda and Pravyi Sektor, is all the more interesting.
jobbik.com and Jamestown and Al Jazeera and Voice of Russia (trans) and ImRussia (trans)

****
**** United Nations: Violence escalates in Central African Republic
****


The violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) is increasing, and
is moving in a new direction, according to the United Nations. There
are increased tensions and clashes between the (Christian) anti-Balaka
militias versus the (Muslim) Chadian soldiers in the African Union
peacekeeping force (MISCA). On Saturday, 24 people were killed and
100 injured when Chadian forces fired indiscriminately into a crowd.
On Monday, an anti-Balaka element threw a grenade at Chadian soldiers,
before being killed by French troops.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is headed for a
massive, genocidal generational crisis war, which will be just as
bloody as the generational crisis war that occurred in Rwanda in 1994.
It's becoming increasingly evident that this war will go beyond a
civil war between Muslims and Christians in CAR, and will end up
involving both French and MISCA peacekeeping forces as active
participants in the war. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is
calling for a 12,000 soldier U.N peacekeeping force, but from the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, this will have little effect
in a population of 4.5 million, with the number of displaced people
currently at 650,000 and increasing. UN OHCHR

****
**** Ebola outbreak spreads to Conarky Guinea, causing panic in West Africa
****


Officials had originally hoped to confine the Ebola virus outbreak to
a couple of small villages in southern Guinea, but it's continued to
spread and has now invaded Conarky, the capital of Guinea. Conarky
has a population of almost 2 million people, mostly crammed together
in slums, so is the perfect breeding ground for the deadly virus.
Panic is spreading throughout Guinea and north to the large Guinean
population in Senegal, which has shut down its normally open border
with Guinea. Ebola is extremely deadly and contagious, but passes
from person to person only through bodily contact, so it's hoped that
it can be stopped by encouraging people to use proper sanitation
measures. USA Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Conarky, Guinea, Senegal,
France, François Hollande, Julie Gayet,
Valérie Trierweiler, Ségolène Royal,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Hungary, Jobbik, Marton Gyongyosi,
Lower Carpathians, Slovakia, Romania,
France, Front Nationale, Marine Le Pen, Frederick Chatillon,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nigel Farage, UK,
Ukraine, Svoboda, Pravyi Sektor,
Central African Republic, anti-Balaka, Séléka, MISCA,
Chad, Rwanda, Ban Ki-Moon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1273 at 04-03-2014 10:47 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
04-03-2014, 10:47 PM #1273
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

4-Apr-14 World View -- Israel cancels the fourth prisoner release

*** 4-Apr-14 World View -- Israel cancels the fourth prisoner release, jeopardizing 'peace talks'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Chicago has coldest winter on record
  • Israel cancels the fourth prisoner release, jeopardizing 'peace talks'
  • Pakistan government flip-flops and frees 19 Taliban militants from jail


****
**** Chicago has coldest winter on record
****



Chicago's Blizzard of 1967 (Chicago Tribune)

The average temperature in Chicago over the last four months was 22
degrees Fahrenheit, with a record 26 days at or below zero, and over
80 inches of snow, making 2013-04 the coldest winter on record. The
second coldest winter was 1903-04, when the average temperature was
22.3.

Weather forecasts for the early spring are for below average
temperatures. CBS Chicago

****
**** Israel cancels the fourth prisoner release, jeopardizing 'peace talks'
****


Israel has canceled the release from Israeli jails of the last of the
four groups of Palestinian prisoners who has been convicted of
terrorist acts prior to the 1994 Oslo accords. Releasing these
prisoners, whom Palestinian officials refer to as "political
prisoners," was a pre-condition to getting Palestinian president
Mahmoud Abbas to agree to participate in the "peace talks" that the
Obama administration and Secretary of State John Kerry had been
pushing last month.

The last batch of prisoners was scheduled for releast last week on
Friday, and the self-imposed deadline for the "peace talks" to reach a
conclusion is April 29. But both sides have been playing brinkmanship
with the April 29 date approaching. Abbas demanded that hundreds more
prisoners be released. Then Israel's prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu delayed last Friday's prison release. On Wednesday, Abbas
applied to 15 United Nations agencies as the State of Palestine. Now,
on Thursday, Netanyahu has canceled the prisoner release
permanently. Whether these actions on both sides are final or
temporary negotiating tactics is not known.

Kerry is said to be very downcast. He was very optimistic nine months
ago, thinking that he and President Obama, the latter being the
smartest person in the room, no matter what the room, thought that
they would become the greatest politicians in history by bringing
peace to the Mideast. But now Kerry is quoted as saying that there's
nothing more he can do, and adds, "You can lead a horse to water, but
you can't make it drink." The "peace talks" were never anything
more than a show anyway, and were considered a joke throughout
the Mideast.

I've been writing about this for over ten years, since May 2003 when
President George Bush issued his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace." From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, peace in the Mideast is impossible, and that
the Arabs and the Jews will be re-fighting their genocidal war that
began last time in 1947 with the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. The traumatized survivors of that
war spent their lives doing everything they could to keep anything so
horrible from happening to the children and grandchildren, and they
succeeded in that. But now almost all of those survivors are gone,
with the major exception being Mahmoud Abbas himself, and the younger
generations have no hesitancy in risking steps that could spiral into
all out war. When Abbas retires or dies, then the last major obstacle
to such a war will be removed.

The smartest man in the room thinks that he can heal the earth, roll
back the tides, and bring peace to the Mideast because he believes
that politicians control events. As I've said many times, it's a
basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship,
major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire
generations of people, and not by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not
the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except
insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they
represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great
events of history. I invoked this principal in
my report three days ago
when I wrote that the
Russian public may force president Vladimir Putin to order
the invasion of Ukraine:

<QUOTE>"The Russian people are experiencing passions of
ferocious intensity to achieve victories that prove Russia's
"greatness." If Putin is forced to back down in any way in
Ukraine, it could be politically disastrous for him. Instead, he
may have to find a way to maximize the "shock and awe" from his
next strike."<END QUOTE>

In the case of the Mideast, a peace deal will be blocked not by the
politicians but by the people, especially young people. Young people
in Palestinian militias, in Gaza, or in Palestinian refugee camps, for
example, will never go along with any "peace agreement." Israel has
populations of settlers who refuse to give up their settlement homes,
populations of Orthodox Jews who believe that control of the region is
their sacred destiny, and populations of ordinary people that fear
that a "peace deal" would only mean more terrorist attacks on Israel.

So from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a Mideast peace
deal really is impossible. BBC and
Daily Times (Pakistan)

****
**** Pakistan government flip-flops and frees 19 Taliban militants from jail
****


Freeing prisoners in exchange for "peace talks" seems to be the
theme in Pakistan, as well as in the Mideast. The Taliban
announced a one-month ceasefire on March 1, nominally to give
"peace talks" with the government a chance.

The Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) have been demanding
that hundreds of Taliban militants being help in Pakistan's jailed be
freed, in exchange for continuing the "peace talks." Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif has consistently denied that he would agree to release
prisoners, but on Thursday it emerged that he's been releasing Taliban
prisoners all along -- three on March 21, five on March 25th, and 11
on March 28. The prisoners are described as "non-combatants."

Early on Thursday, a government spokesman said, "The government has
neither released any Taliban prisoner nor the prime minister gave any
approval for any such measure," but later in the day it emerged that
Sharif had personally authorized the release of the 19 prisoners, and
is considered the release of hundreds more. Sharif kept the release
secret from the public because of massive pressure from the military
establishment, who oppose the release of TTP prisoners because of
their alleged involvement in terror attacks across the country.

The Generational Dynamics principles that I discussed above with
respect to the Mideast "peace talks" also apply here. It's
generations of people, not the politicians, that decide great events,
and Sharif's confused flip-flops illustrate the problem. Many in the
public support, or at least passively support, the TTP, even when they
conduct a terrorist attack in someone else's back yard, and choose to
believe that the United States involvement in Afghanistan is the
reason for the terrorist attacks. They're hopin' and prayin' that
when the U.S. withdraws later this year, then the attacks will stop.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this cannot happen.
Pakistan and India are headed for a massive war, re-fighting one of
the worst wars of the century, the genocidal war between Hindus and
Muslims that followed the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into the nations of Pakistan and India. Daily Times (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Chicago, Israel, Oslo accords,
John Kerry, Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Nawaz Sharif

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1274 at 04-04-2014 10:52 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
04-04-2014, 10:52 PM #1274
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,012

5-Apr-14 World View -- Sunni jihadists in Lebanon prepare for war with Hezbollah

*** 5-Apr-14 World View -- Sunni jihadists in Lebanon prepare for war with Hezbollah

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • U.N. registers million'th Syrian refugee in Lebanon
  • Sunni jihadists in Lebanon prepare for war with Hezbollah
  • John Kerry says 'It's reality check time' for Mideast talks


****
**** U.N. registers million'th Syrian refugee in Lebanon
****



Syrian refugees (UN)

Lebanon, with a population of 5.9 million, is now hosting one million
registered refugees from Syria, according to the United Nations. The
one millionth refugee was registered on Wednesday, and some 2,500 new
refugees are registered every day. In addition, it's thought that
hundreds of thousands of additional Syrian refugees have entered the
country illegally, and are not registered.

According to the United Nations, 9.5 million Syrians, about half the
population, have fled from their homes, and 2.6 million have fled to
other countries:

  • Lebanon - 1 million
  • Jordan - 668,000
  • Turkey - 589,000
  • Iraq - 220,000
  • Egypt - 136,000


Due to the rapid deterioration of the economy and social structure in
Lebanon, especially near the Syrian border, the United Nations is
"making a conceptual shift in its focus" from a purely short-term
humanitarian effort to a long-term effort to develop and instill
"resilience." This means that instead of just providing aid to
individual refugees, the U.N. will help develop employment
opportunities and improve infrastructure and basic services.

However, a humanitarian analyst opposes the change in focus, because
it would dilute resources:

<QUOTE>"I think what’s a problem is when you have an
emergency setting and humanitarian actors get bogged down in also
dealing with development responses.

If you see someone drowning you don’t start a project to build a
jetty."<END QUOTE>

BBC
and Daily Star (Lebanon)

****
**** Sunni jihadists in Lebanon prepare for war with Hezbollah
****


Prosecutors in Lebanon on Friday charged two militants with being tied
to a jihadist group that have targeted military positions several
times, including a recent suicide car bomb that killed three soldiers.
The militants are charged with being members of the Syrian-based
al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (the Islamic Front). Al-Nusra is one
of the rebel groups fighting Syria's Shia/Alewite president Bashar
al-Assad, who is systematically targeting Sunni civilians.

This is the latest action by Lebanon's government to fend off a
growing threat by al-Nusra to attack Lebanese government and army
targets, and particularly Hezbollah, the Shia terrorist group funded
by Iran. This was a shift in al-Nusra's strategy last year, after
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah announced that Hezbollah
soldiers will be entering Syria to fight alongside the Syrian army to
target Sunni civilians and rebels. Al-Nusra is also claiming that the
government and army are allied with Hezbollah, and so should be
targeted as well.

Since then there's been a string of terrorist gunfights and bombings
by al-Nusra terrorists in Lebanon. But new security reports that a
large number of al-Nusra militants are taking advantage of the large
influx of refugees from Syria to infiltrate Lebanon in the last few
days. These fighters have scattered to several refugee camps, while
some are residing in secret apartments. Reports indicate that they
have already rigged several stolen cars with explosives, which they
plan to use on Hezbollah targets. Reuters and Daily Star (Lebanon)

****
**** John Kerry says 'It's reality check time' for Mideast talks
****


It's hard to know what to say about U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry. He burst onto the scene in 1971 when he declared
to the Senate that U.S. Army soldiers were no better than
Nazi stormtroopers, and he's been belittling the army and the
United States ever since.

His appointment as Secretary of State was laughable from the
beginning, but was possible only because the President believes that
war is outmoded, and that he's uniquely able to end war forever, at
the same time that he's healing the earth and rolling back the tides,
because of his community organizer skills. John Kerry and President
Obama have made fools of themselves and the United States with one
debacle after another -- in Egypt, in Afghanistan, in Syria, in
Lebanon, in Crimea, in Iran. It seems that there is almost no foreign
policy issue that hasn't been made worse by some sort of clueless
botching by this Administration.

Last July, Kerry used several carrots and sticks to get the Israelis
and Palestinians to begin new "peace talks," which I and many other
people said were completely pointless. The talks have gone on for
nine months, and were considered a joke in the Mideast. Now, on
Friday, Kerry said the following:

<QUOTE>"Regrettably in the last few days both sides have
taken steps that are not helpful.

There are limits to the amount of time and effort that the United
States can spend if the parties themselves are unwilling to take
constructive steps. So it’s reality check time."<END QUOTE>

He's making himself the victim here. Poor John and Barack went to all
this trouble, but nobody ever listens to them. If people only
listened, Obama and Kerry could heal the Mideast and the world. So
now it's "reality check time."

This Administration lives in a dream world where reality hasn't played
much of a part. So it's hard to know what kind of "reality check"
plans Kerry will make, but there's no reason to believe that they will
reflect any more reality than they have in the past. Bloomberg and NY Daily News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, United Nations,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic Front,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, John Kerry

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1275 at 04-05-2014 12:55 AM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
---
04-05-2014, 12:55 AM #1275
Join Date
May 2007
Posts
6,371

Regarding foreign affairs...I'm starting to think that the Obama administration would do just as well if it did nothing.
-----------------------------------------