Could secession be a major theme of this 4T?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Could secession be a major theme of this 4T?

I don't think so, but a new round of "Lebensraum," by China and Russia,
will be.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Could secession be a major theme of this 4T?

It seems like all those impulses in the US reared their head @ 2008-2010 and fizzled into tinfoil stuff. I include Tea Party in that sort of genre. So I think no, not really.

Footnote to what I paraphrased from Lincoln. There is a geographical barrier in the US that wasn't really in view in Lincoln's day: the Rocky Mountains. California in strange circumstances could be theoretically viable as semi independent. Prob with Pac NW + NW Mex / Mountain West as sphere of influence. But notice Cali is very New England like culturally at higher strata so is among least likely to support secession movement right now.*

Places where that stuff has any popularity (Deep South, Texas, Montana etc) are geographically unviable as independent units per Lincoln's analysis. They are too dependent on waterways linked right into Midatlantic/New England/Midwest. Again the "Yankee Core" they would be putatively seceding from. So no way Jose even in extenuating circumstances, unless Texas joined Mexico.

The states with Tea Party style quasi-secession populism are also all adjacent to the Central Plains that are easy to project power from (would be a more logical political center for country but that's not how history played out). So again, they will not be seceding IMO.

*Big caveat: In 50-100 years, keeping Cali in the union would require either 1. Enough internal migration of Latinos to other states, such that Cali is not substantially tipped towards Mexico more than other US regions. And 2. Continued integration of Silicone Valley with eastern/central US business + commercial interests relative to Asia. Of these, point 2 should not be a problem, but point one is challenging long term.

California is already idiosyncratic in terms of legal system, politics, and demographics. Again, the veneer of Anglo "California Dudes and Housewives" is enough to keep it in a Yankee orbit. Below that is massive Latino influenced lower class culture with lots and lots of political clout. Cali is bizarre economically because of migrant workers and effects of polarized income distribution. Of all places, Cali is the biggest problem but not for another few decades.

I don't think (US) secession is very likely this go around. There was a lot of signaling prior to the Civil War, and by this point in the 1850s there were already border skirmishes and the like. I don't think the Red/Blue or even White/PoC divides are going to be the big conflicts of the 4T. Later? Sure, as was mentioned, by the next Awakening the non Anglo cultural/demographic component is going to be big enough to make things very interesting, but in the meantime I think the "End of Empire"(tm) looks like the first item on the dock. The final breakdown of the Western-centered order.

You can call it "post-colonialism" if you like.

Yes, in the next Fourth Turning, US politics will have to deal with a mature Latino voter base that will not stand idly when the next a Central American or even South American crisis erupts.

Sounds strange, but in the US a Pan-Latino consciousness is crystallizing that might perceive common cause with even distant players like Brazil (situation dependent). The US has had the luxury of an extraordinarily de-rooted Af Am minority that has no close remaining ties to Africa. That is not the case with Latinos or in Beltway-ese "Hispanics."

Btw, don't be shocked when that voter base is less enthusiastic about going off fighting new wars against recalcitrant post Colonialists in the developing world. The implicit shared feelings and responses about who is "us" and who is "them" are a-changing with the demographics. Pbrower, you might find yourself pining for those pesky self willed Appalachians. By then, Honey Boo Boo might have left the building, and you'll be dealing with La Honeycita Bubu instead.

Oh, I think a lot of the US government's global adventures will close out by the start of the next saeculum. Regional, "bad neighbor" policy stuff? Entirely plausible, which will only exacerbate the upcoming non-Anglo backlash next Awakening, IMO.

*** 17-Apr-14 World View -- Iran says that the Ukraine crisis is 'a divine blessing'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran says that the Ukraine crisis is 'a divine blessing'
• Ukraine's 'anti-terrorist operation' turns into a fiasco
• Russian ambassador signals coming invasion of east Ukraine
• Pakistan Taliban refuses to extend ceasefire, wants 'peace talks' anyway

****
**** Iran says that the Ukraine crisis is 'a divine blessing'
****


Mohsen Rezaei was Iran's top commander during the 1980s war with Iraq

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has previously
declared the need to adopt a "resistance economy," to defeat the
Western sanctions. Expediency Discernment Council Secretary and
former IRGC (Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps) Commander Mohsen Rezaei
discussed the "resistance economy":

<QUOTE>"In my opinion, we have so far been successful in the
Geneva negotiations, but these negotiations could have been done
better. The wall of sanctions was not successful because we have
been able to increase our oil exports. America cannot revert to
the past because a lack of confidence has been created in
it. Fortunately, the Ukrainian matter became a divine blessing for
us, because America can no longer convince China and Russia. ...

Resistance economy means the people’s jihad and that the economy
must be made resistant against the enemies’ shocks and
pressures. ...

Resistance economy seeks to bring the Westerners and the Americans
to their knees against sanctions, to the extent that they admit
that sanctions were mistake."<END QUOTE>

AEI Iran Tracker

****
**** Ukraine's 'anti-terrorist operation' turns into a fiasco
****

The "anti-terrorist operation" by Ukraine's army to strike back at
pro-Russian separatist activists in cities in eastern Ukraine is
turning into a fiasco, a day after it was announced by Ukraine's
acting President Olexander Turchynov. Six of the Ukrainian army's
armored personnel carriers (APCs) were captured by pro-Russian
militants in eastern Ukraine, amid reports that Ukrainian soldiers
switched sides to support the militants. The Ukrainian soldiers were
obviously unhappy with being deployed against crowds of civilians.

Evidence is growing that Russian armed forces special agents are in
east Ukraine, training the separatist militants with tactics -- takint
over buildings, setting up blockades, fomenting protests. Speaking in
London, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said Russia had sent
"thinly disguised" armed groups into eastern Ukraine to spearhead the
occupation of buildings.

Ukraine is not a member of Nato, but fears are growing that Russia
does not plan to stop with annexing Ukraine. Latvia and Estonia are
Nato members, and have large ethnic Russian communities. Nato
announced that air patrols over the Baltic republics are to be
increased, while Nato warships will deploy to the eastern
Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea. BBC and CNN

****
**** Russian ambassador signals coming invasion of east Ukraine
****


Vladimir Chizhov (BBC)

Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's Ambassador to European Union, was
interviewed on the BBC on Wednesday. With violent pro-Russian
activists in east Ukraine taking over police stations, airfields
and government buildings, he was asked why the Russian government
does not tell them to stand down (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Well I think in the current situation situation there
would be seen by people in eastern Ukraine as Russia betraying
them, because they want to see their interests protected, and they
want to see a federalization of the country. Our view, and my
personal view, is the only way to save Ukraine as a single
democratic country."<END QUOTE>

The "federalization of the country" means making eastern provinces
independent republics, which would make them like Crimea, and
then vulnerable to Russian annexation. Ukraine is already
no longer a "single democratic country," having lost Ukraine
to Russian annexation.

Chizhov was asked what would happen if separatists in Russia
were occupying police stations and airports. Would Moscow
stand by and let this happen?

<QUOTE>"I don't think you should draw a comparison between a
legitimate government like the one in Russia and self-proclaimed
government that came to power as a result of an armed coup in
Kiev."<END QUOTE>

So according to Chizhov, Kiev isn't allowed to do anything to stop the
violence in east Ukraine because it's not a "legitimate" government,
even though it's the only government. And Russia won't even ask the
protesters to stop the violence, because that would be "betraying"
them. Therefore, according to Russian logic, Kiev just has to let the
violence continue.

What Chizhov didn't mention is that Russia's government isn't
legitimate either. The December 2011 parliamentary elections and the
May 2012 presidential election were so fraudulent that they triggered
massive protests, which Russia's security services brutally
suppressed. ( "8-May-12 World View -- Putin becomes president of Russia again, facing harsh new challenges"
)

Watching Chizhov on television, one can almost see the sleaze oozing
out of every pore. But the bottom line is that Russia is fomenting a
"civil war" in eastern Ukraine, and apparently is preparing to invade
in order to "protect" the ethnic Russians.

****
**** Pakistan Taliban refuses to extend ceasefire, wants 'peace talks' anyway
****

The one-month ceasefire that the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban -
TTP) declared has now expired, and on Wednesday announced that it will
not be extended. However, the TTP wants to continue the "peace talks"
with complete "sincerity and seriousness" which, I assume, means that
TTP will keep on blowing up crowded marketplaces and mosques while it
pretends to want peace.

It recently emerged that the TTP agreed to the one-month ceasefire in
the first place only because prime minister Nawaz Sharif agreed
to release 19 Taliban militants from
jail. Sharif secretly kept this process last month, though the secret
was revealed recently. Apparently the TTP is willing to agree to a
ceasefire only as long as murderers are being let out of jail.

In a more bizarre development, two factions of the TTP in Pakistan's
tribal area have been fighting each other for control, and have shed a
lot of blood doing so. So the TTP leadership has appealed to the
Afghanistan Taliban to send a delegation to Pakistan to act as
mediators between the two warring factions, and end the fighting.
The Express Tribune (Pakistan) and The News (Pakistan)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Mohsen Rezaei,
Ukraine, Olexander Turchynov, Russia, Vladimir Chizhov,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Nawaz Sharif,

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*** 18-Apr-14 World View -- Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine
• Ukraine agreement leaves many questions unanswered
• Nigeria in shock from double attack by Boko Haram

****
**** Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine
****


Pro-Russian activists block Ukrainian soldiers in armored personnel carriers in east Ukraine on Wednesday (AFP)

In a nationally televised program on Thursday, Russia's president
Vladimir Putin described southern and eastern Ukraine as Novorossiya,
or New Russia, that had been part of the Russian Empire since the 18th
century, until the 1920s when the Soviet leadership decided "For God
knows why," to give it to Ukraine. Putin said that he "hopes he won't
have to send troops into Ukraine," but pointed out that the Duma
(parliament) had given him the power to order an invasion of Crimea,
if he chooses to do so. These statements were similar to the prelude
to the Russian annexation of Crimean, which was justified by a
historical narrative, and a statement by Putin that "we have no
intention of annexing Crimea."

So it was a surprise a few hours later when Russia's foreign minister
Sergei Lavrov announced that an agreement had been reached between
Russia, Ukraine and the West to deescalate the situation. In
particular, the agreement called for protesters to leave illegally
seized buildings. As we reported yesterday,
Russia's ambassador to the European Union said that any
such call would be "betraying" the people of eastern Ukraine.

Russia also backed down on the demand for "federalization," replacing
it simply with a "constitutional process." There was no mention of
being unaligned, which has been code word for the Russian demand that
Ukraine not join Nato.

There are several possible reasons for Putin's flip-flop:

• It's possible that Putin is lying (again), and this may simply
  be a ploy to gain time before a planned invasion. This is what
  happened with Crimea.
  
• Polls have shown that most east Ukrainians want to remain part of
  Ukraine, so a Russian invasion would be far more difficult than
  annexing Crimea.
  
• The West has been a lot more unified than anyone expected in
  imposing sanctions. The sanctions seemed little more than symbolic,
  but they did result in a big outflow of foreign currency reserves,
  thanks to nervous investors fearing future sanctions. Furthermore,
  Nato has been moving some of its troops and assets closer to eastern
  Europe.

ABC News and Russia Today

****
**** Ukraine agreement leaves many questions unanswered
****

Here's the full published text of the Ukraine agreement:

<QUOTE>"The Geneva meeting on the situation in Ukraine agreed
on initial concrete steps to de-escalate tensions and restore
security for all citizens.

All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or
provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and
rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious
intolerance, including anti-semitism.

All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized
buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally
occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian
cities and towns must be vacated.

Amnesty will be granted to protestors and to those who have left
buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with
the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes.

It was agreed that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission should play
a leading role in assisting Ukrainian authorities and local
communities in the immediate implementation of these de-escalation
measures wherever they are needed most, beginning in the coming
days. The U.S., E.U. and Russia commit to support this mission,
including by providing monitors.

The announced constitutional process will be inclusive,
transparent and accountable. It will include the immediate
establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach to all
of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for
the consideration of public comments and proposed amendments.

The participants underlined the importance of economic and
financial stability in Ukraine and would be ready to discuss
additional support as the above steps are
implemented."<END QUOTE>

The first steps that would have to be: "All illegal armed groups must
be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to
legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other
public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated." This
would apply to eastern Ukraine cities, but it would also apply to
anti-Russian "Maidan" protesters in Kiev, who are still blockading
streets and occupying some buildings in the capital city. There could
be some disagreements as to who has to go first.

The issue that originally triggered the months of protests and
counter-protests was a desire by many in Ukraine to sign a trade
agreement with the European Union, something that was bitterly opposed
by Putin and Russia. The new agreement removes the demand that
Ukraine be "unaligned," but it's not clear what would happen if
Ukraine decided to sign the agreement after all, or to apply for
membership in Nato.

As I always like to point out, major events are brought about not by
politicians but by masses of people, generations of people, and
politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they implement the
policies demanded by the people. It's a basic principle of
Generational Dynamics that this is always true, even in a
dictatorship. Whether the Ukraine agreement succeeds depends on how
the pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine and the anti-Russian
protesters in Kiev deal with it. Indeed, the pro-Russian protesters
may feel betrayed, as the Russian ambassador suggested. If they stand
their ground, then Thursday's agreement will be totally meaningless.

By a coincidence of timing, we may know the answer within a few days.
Sunday is Easter, and this is one of those rare years when the Western
Easter coincides with the Eastern Orthodox Easter. If anything can
motivate protesters in Kiev and eastern Ukraine to end their protests,
it would be Easter Sunday, the holiest day in the Christian calendar.
So we may know by Monday whether the terms of the agreement will be
met by the pro-Russian protesters in east Ukraine and the anti-Russian
protesters in Kiev. Guardian

****
**** Nigeria in shock from double attack by Boko Haram
****

First there was Monday's massive attack on a bus station in Abuja, the
capital city of Nigeria. ( "15-Apr-14 World View -- Major terrorist explosion in Nigeria's capital kills over 70"
)

Then on Tuesday, Boko Haram abducted over 100 schoolgirls from a
school in northeast Nigeria. This act is supposed to be consistent
with the meaning in the Hausa language of Boko Haram: "Western
education is forbidden." But stories are spreading that there's a
much more carnal motive, and that Boko Haram are using the girls as
sex slaves. There have been other terrorist attacks this week as
well.

The girls have not yet been found, and excuses and statements by the
government, the military and police are only infuriating the parents.
Parents are beginning to ignore the police and form vigilante militias
to find them.

In recent months, Boko Haram has changed, in that the terror has
become indiscriminate. It used to be that Boko Haram bombed
government installations and Christian churches, but now anyone and
anything can be a target, with motives that are unclear. The country
is roughly half Muslim and half Christian. For Muslims, it's clear
that the violence is all due to Islamist extremists, but Christians do
not believe that Islamists would kill fellow Muslims. The result is
that the country's population is becoming more polarized along
Christian/Muslim lines. Deutsche-Welle and
CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin,
Novorossiya, New Russia, Sergei Lavrov, Kiev, Easter,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Abuja

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***
*** 17-Apr-2014 Rag's addition
***
From Naked Capitalism
General Mills Opens New Frontier in Denying Consumers Right to Sue: Just Use Its Products

Posted on April 17, 2014 by Yves Smith We have just moved beyond an event horizon as far as the corporate version of neo-feudalism is concerned. Remember that one of the salient qualities of feudalism was that the nobility had far more rights than the peasants.
By contrast, one of the hoary old notions of jurisprudence is equality before the law. That doesn’t serve our corporate-overlords-in-the-making too well. Subverting jurisprudence over time via inculcating pro-business thinkings through the law and economics movement apparently isn’t good enough for them; they want even higher odds of favorable outcomes. One of them is sneakily getting customers to relinquish their right to sue via getting them to agree to be subject to binding arbitration.
This requirement has long been in place as a condition of getting a securities brokerage account. Although it is difficult to prove, many securities brokerage customers feel that they don’t get the restitution which they deserve through this process (and one might cynically observe that that is a feature, not a bug). Some arbitration forums have been so clearly biased as to lead attorneys general to sue. For instance, as described by Martin & Jones:

The Minnesota Attorney General recently sued the National Arbitration Forum (“NAF”), contending that NAF committed fraud and engaged in false advertising and deceptive trade practices by intentionally misrepresenting its independence and neutrality and by hiding its ties to the debt collection industry. Soon after the case was filed, NAF agreed to a settlement, the terms of which included a requirement that NAF stop accepting all future consumer arbitrations.
The Attorney General’s lawsuit and others recently filed against NAF demonstrated that NAF was anything but the neutral, unbiased forum it represented itself to be. The lawsuits exposed the following: (1) NAF actively concealed the fact that it was owned and managed by the same New York hedge fund which also owned the three largest debt collection law firms which had claims decided by the NAF; (2) NAF helped creditors draft claims to be filed against consumers or referred them to debt collection law firms which would then file arbitration claims against the consumers before the NAF; (3) NAF solicited business from creditors by touting arbitration before the NAF as a less costly and more effective debt collection tool than the courts; and (4) NAF instructed arbitrators how they should rule with respect to certain claims and denied assignments to arbitrators who found against repeat business filers.

In other words, arbitration forums can all too easily become privatized kangaroo courts. And even when generally well-run arbitration panels have serious shortcomings in process, challenging the results of arbitration due to arbitrator bias rarely succeeds.

Heretofore, binding arbitration clauses have been limited to cases where a consumer enters into a contract with a service provider, such as a credit card issuer or a cell phone company. But General Mills is trying to prohibit consumers from suing based on penny-ante benefits and even mere contact. From the New York Times:

General Mills, the maker of cereals like Cheerios and Chex as well as brands like Bisquick and Betty Crocker, has quietly added language to its website to alert consumers that they give up their right to sue the company if they download coupons, “join” it in online communities like Facebook, enter a company-sponsored sweepstakes or contest or interact with it in a variety of other ways…
Instead, anyone who has received anything that could be construed as a benefit and who then has a dispute with the company over its products will have to use informal negotiation via email or go through arbitration to seek relief, according to the new terms posted on its site.

Yves here. Since when is liking a product a benefit to the consumer??? It’s a benefit to the merchant. That alone gives you an idea of what an overreach this is. Back to the article:

“Although this is the first case I’ve seen of a food company moving in this direction, others will follow — why wouldn’t you?” said Julia Duncan, director of federal programs and an arbitration expert at the American Association for Justice, a trade group representing plaintiff trial lawyers. “It’s essentially trying to protect the company from all accountability, even when it lies, or say, an employee deliberately adds broken glass to a product.”…
Companies have continued to push for expanded protection against litigation, but legal experts said that a food company trying to limit its customers’ ability to litigate against it raised the stakes in a new way.
What if a child allergic to peanuts ate a product that contained trace amounts of nuts but mistakenly did not include that information on its packaging? Food recalls for mislabeling, including failures to identify nuts in products, are not uncommon.
“When you’re talking about food, you’re also talking about things that can kill people,” said Scott L. Nelson, a lawyer at Public Citizen, a nonprofit advocacy group. “There is a huge difference in the stakes, between the benefit you’re getting from this supposed contract you’re entering into by, say, using the company’s website to download a coupon, and the rights they’re saying you’re giving up. That makes this agreement a lot broader than others out there.”

And it turns out that the reason General Mills is so keen to shield itself from litigation is that it has repeatedly engaged in deliberately dishonest product labeling, and apparently intends to keep up this profitable form of consumer fraud:

Last year, General Mills paid $8.5 million to settle lawsuits over positive health claims made on the packaging of its Yoplait Yoplus yogurt, saying it did not agree with the plaintiff’s accusations but wanted to end the litigation. In December 2012, it agreed to settle another suit by taking the word “strawberry” off the packaging label for Strawberry Fruit Roll-Ups, which did not contain strawberries.
General Mills amended its legal terms after a judge in California on March 26 ruled against its motion to dismiss a case brought by two mothers who contended that the company deceptively marketed its Nature Valley products as “natural” when they contained processed and genetically engineered ingredients.
“The front of the Nature Valley products’ packaging prominently displays the term ‘100% Natural’ that could lead a reasonable consumer to believe the products contain only natural ingredients,” wrote the district judge, William H. Orrick.

So here’s a simple answer. Don’t buy anything made by General Mills. And encourage everyone you know to do the same. This is a list of their brands:

8th Continent
Betty Crocker
Big G Cereals
Bisquick
Bugles
Cascadian Farm
Cheerios
Chex
Forno de Minas
Frescarini
Fruit Snacks
Gardetto’s
Gold Medal
Green Giant
Häagen-Dazs
Hamburger Helper
Jus-Rol
Knack & Back
La Salteña
Latina
Lloyd’s
Lucky Charms
Muir Glen
Nature Valley
Old El Paso
Pillsbury
Pop Secret
Progresso
Totino’s/Jeno’s
Trix
V. Pearl
Wanchai Ferry
Wheaties
Yoplait/Colombo

1. Honestly, I fail to understand why folks buy "named brand" stuff to begin with. Perhaps it's because "advertising works". Anyhow, aggressive advertising incurs overhead costs that store brand/generics don't have to contend with. Now, with this binding arbitration nonsense that happens by stealth by just "liking" a General Mills product on Facebook or overlooking this in "condition as such:

Found here. http://www.generalmills.com/en/Legal_Terms.aspx. [The terms are too long to put here in their entirety, so click on the link. for full details It's an eye opener, for sure. I'll put the most disgusting one below.]

"
1. Your agreement to these legal terms

These terms are a binding legal agreement (“Agreement”) between you and General Mills. In exchange for the benefits, discounts, content, features, services, or other offerings that you receive or have access to by using our websites, joining our sites as a member, joining our online community, subscribing to our email newsletters, downloading or printing a digital coupon, entering a sweepstakes or contest, redeeming a promotional offer, or otherwise participating in any other General Mills offering, you are agreeing to these terms.
Of course, your decision to do any of these things (i.e., to use or join our site or online community, to subscribe to our emails, to download or print a digital coupon, to enter a sweepstakes or contest, to take advantage of a promotional offer, or otherwise participate in any other General Mills offering) is entirely voluntary. But if you choose to do any of these things, then you agree to be bound by this Agreement.
"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The odd thing is that "liking" something or I guess clicking on the Twitter button flushes your legal rights down the toilet. Heaven forbid you have a peanut allergy and General Mills blithely neglets to tell you some product they have was processed in a facility that also handles peanuts.

***
*** Blowback comes to haunt banksters
***
Quelle Surprise! Ginnie Mae Says Bank of America Has Lots of Servicing Documents Missing; MERS Also in Hot Water

Posted on April 17, 2014 by Yves Smith An article by Kate Berry in American Banker earlier this week hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves. Anyone who was paying attention to the mortgage beat in 2010 through 2012 knew that mortgage securitization originators and servicers were playing fast and loose with critical documents like mortgage notes because they couldn’t be bothered to observe their own contracts and transfer them to the mortgage trust as stipulated.

But exposing that threatened to blow up the mortgage-industrial complex. So the Obama Administration and the major regulators labored mightily to engineer a cover-up settlement, which included all sorts of pious promises by servicers to Do Better.
Two years later, what do we find? Bank of America, one of the biggest miscreants, wants to exit servicing mortgages guaranteed by Ginnie Mae. One thing that may not be obvious to most readers is that servicing those mortgages should be a no-brainer. Unlike subprime mortgages, where each deal had slight (or sometimes not so slight) variations in terms, Ginnie Mae has a handbook that servicers are supposed to follow.
Yet with crystal-clear guidelines, plus two years post the state-national settlement to clean up its operations, Bank of America has so many important documents missing that Ginnie Mae won’t let them sell their servicing operations. From American Banker:

Ginnie Mae has halted the transfer of mortgage servicing rights from Bank of America (BAC) to a nonbank servicer because the bank is missing documents such as recorded mortgages and title policies on the underlying home loans.

Ted Tozer, the president of Ginnie Mae, says he has held up the transfer of servicing rights by B of A “for an extended period” because the bank is not complying with agency’s guidelines that require all mortgage documents be delivered to custodians in a timely manner..
Though Ginnie Mae has flagged problems with servicing transfers by Bank of America before, Tozer says, they were resolved quickly and did not affect the transfer dates. This is the first time a transfer has been delayed for an extended period.
“All we’re asking for them to do is to live up to the agreement from 10 years ago,” Tozer says.

The striking part of this is that as derelict at duty as Bank of America has proven to be, Tozer isn’t sure they are any worse than the other banks:

It is unclear how widespread the problem of missing documents is in the transfers of mortgage servicing, Tozer says, and he does not want to single out B of A.
“I don’t mean to sound like we’re picking on B of A,” he says. “I can’t say if it’s just B of A or not.”….
Ginnie’s “representations and warranties” program allows participating servicers to classify pools of loans as receiving “final certification” from Ginnie, even if there is no receipt of documents and no review by a trust’s custodian that the essential documents have been delivered to the trust.
Instead, the servicers in the program agree to send all the essential records of the mortgage, deed of trust, title policy and intervening mortgage assignments to the document custodian in the normal course of business, usually within a year, though there is no set time frame.
Some servicers have asked the agency to extend leniency or grant waivers under the program; Ginnie has refused to do so. The agency now is asking the largest mortgage servicers for an inventory of loans that may have missing documents that cannot be verified by trust custodians.

It’s going to be intriguing to see if Ginnie Mae wind up going where no financial services regulator has been willing to go before, namely, to get to the bottom of how severe the “bad records” problem is at the major mortgage servicers.

On a related front, Bloomberg described on how another fixture of the servicing industry, MERS, seems to be suffering a slow and well deserved decline, and perhaps demise, due its inability to meet the terms of a 2011 settlement agreement and contend with ongoing litigation. From the article (hat tip Lisa Epstein):

As the rest of the housing industry recovers, a little-known firm with a key role in U.S. mortgage finance remains stuck in limbo, wrestling with regulators, lawsuits and the departures of senior employees.

The turbulence feeds uncertainty about the fate of Mortgage Electronic Registrations Systems Inc., or MERS, which documents the ownership and resale of about half of U.S. home loans. A breakdown could force clients such as Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Bank of America Corp. to make costly changes to their loan businesses.
Management hasn’t completed fixes promised in a broad 2011 U.S. settlement designed to stop foreclosure abuses, according to two people briefed on MERS’ operations. Regulators rejected one of the firm’s consultants as unqualified and are examining why four employees hired to help with reforms — including the chief legal officer — recently quit, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is private.
The closely held Reston, Virginia-based firm, a unit of Merscorp Holdings Inc., is also facing scores of lawsuits and state probes that challenge its business model as well as the legality of its filings in hundreds of county courthouses.

Things at MERS are so bad that *gasp* observers as daring to suggest that banks might suddenly be forced to register mortgages the old-fashioned way, as in reliably:

“If the use of MERS is found not to be valid, we could be obligated to cure certain defects or in some circumstances be subject to additional costs and expenses,” Bank of America reported in a February filing. “Our use of MERS as nominee for the mortgage may also create reputational risks for us.”
Fannie Mae, in its annual financial report filed in February, also noted the potential effects if the lawsuits or regulatory pressures force changes in MERS.
“A large portion of the loans we own or guarantee are registered in MERS’s name and the related servicing rights are tracked in the MERS System,” Fannie Mae’s report said, adding that if the firm couldn’t function in the same way, lenders could be forced to go back to time-consuming and expensive methods of recording land transfers.

We have repeatedly flagged that the underlying problem with servicing is the state of the underlying records, yet the authorities keep pretending as if they can put Band-Aids over a gunshot wound. For instance, as we wrote in early 2013 during our Bank of America/Independent Foreclosure Review whistleblower series:

At Bank of America, the disorderliness of the project is only part of the story. Focusing on that aspect serves to exculpate OCC, the bank and Promontory. The dirty secret of these reviews is they could never have been done properly. There was no pre-existing, internally consistent, complete and provably correct account of a customer and his loan in the Bank of America systems. All the dysfunction of the reviews was inevitable given the state of the records. The only course of action possible was a cover-up; the only open question was how much effort would be expended to create the appearance a thorough investigation was made.

So here we are, years later, still seeing the same wound continuing to fester….and remarkably, people like Ted Tozer at Ginnie Mae are surprised to find how bad things are. It shows you how even people who really ought to know better have been taken in by bank and regulatory propaganda.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is what you get when you have rampant greed meeting Keystone Cops like regulators. The shit pot doesn't go away really, it just festers and gets stinkier with time. So here we have it, Bank of America has a stinky pile of shit [ undocumented or lousy paper trail mortgages that it can't fob off because Ginneie Mae somehow managed to do a black swan and called them down. The sale can't go forward until Bank of America gets its mortgage portfolio properly documented.

As for MERS, well a death by 1000 cuts is at hand. The rats have already jumped ship and a growing pile of lawsuits and state AG investigations will probably bring a well deserved death to this abomination.




Keys: General Mills, binding arbitration , corporate neo-feudalism, NAF. banksters, control fraud, non regulating regulators, Ginnie Mae. MERS

Now you have to start thinking about your target audience. What do
they want to read, and what unique things can you bring that they
can't read elsewhere?

John

*** 19-Apr-14 World View -- China admits that 20% of its farmland is polluted with cadmium

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China admits that 20% of its farmland is polluted with cadmium
• Pro-Russian Ukraine activists refuse to stand down
• MERS in Malaysia raises concerns of 'super-spreader'

****
**** China admits that 20% of its farmland is polluted with cadmium
****


Farmer plants rice seedlings in southeast China's Fujian Province, a region heavily contaminated with cadmium. (Xinhua)

A previously top secret report has emerged from China's Environmental
Protection Ministry showing that 19.4% of China's farmland is
contaminated with heavy metals, particularly cadmium, nickel and
arsenic. The toxins come from factories and mining. Rice crops are
particularly vulnerable, since rice paddies are flooded with water, so
that the soil can be contaminated by a mine that's miles away. The
report was released as a result of numerous scandals about tainted
rice containing cadmium, which can cause kidney damage or cancer.
Almost half the supplies of rice sold in Guangzhou, a major city, are
contaminated with cadmium.

Chinese food traders have little regard for the dangers caused by
tainted food. Investigations have shown that traders have been
selling rice known to be cadmium-tainted to food processors. This is
reminiscent of 2008, when some 54,000 babies fell ill and were
hospitalized with kidney problems because of melamine added to milk
powder to fool inspectors into thinking that it had more protein than
it really had. (See "A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster"

from 2008.) AP and Shanghai Daily

****
**** Pro-Russian Ukraine activists refuse to stand down
****

Pro-Russian east Ukraine activists have refused to honor the
international agreement that was signed on Thursday, saying that they
weren't bound by any agreement that they were never asked to sign. As
we reported several days ago,

Russia's ambassador to the European Union said that any such agreement
would be "betraying" the people of eastern Ukraine, and he's right --
activists are saying that Russia sold them out. They're refusing to
vacate the buildings they had occupied until the Ukraine's interim
government in Kiev is ousted. Russia is supporting this opposition.
The White House has warned of "serious consequences" if Russia does
not honor the agreement it signed.

Many commentators believe that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is
looking for an excuse or just waiting until the time is right to order
an invasion of east Ukraine. But he's had plenty of excuses up till
now, and his 40,000 man army has been on Ukraine's border for weeks.
He could have ordered an invasion at any time in the last few weeks,
if he had wanted to.

It's at least as probable that Putin is looking for a way avoid
invading, and to create a status quo under terms favorable to Russia.
An invasion would not be quick, but would meet a great deal of local
resistance. Russia's army would get bogged down in a protracted
battle which, according to several analysts, Russia cannot afford.
Under this interpretation, Russia's flip-flop was really an act of
desperation, as he had ruled out an invasion, and he had no other
viable choice. AP

****
**** MERS in Malaysia raises concerns of 'super-spreader'
****

MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus)
raised serious concerns late last year, as it was spreading
in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. But
now two new outbreaks, one in the Middle East and one
in Malaysia, is causing new concerns that the virus may have
mutated and can spread more easily.

There have been 238 confirmed cases of MERS up till now, with 92
leading to death, which is a high death rate. In the last week there
are 20 cases in two distinct clusters, one in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE), and one in Malaysia. It's known
that both clusters were caused by a 54 year old man who traveled
between Saudi Arabia and Singapore in mid-March, but did not
become ill until April 4.

It was just such a "super-spreader" who caused the SARS virus to
become an international crisis a decade ago. The fear is that the
MERS virus has mutated enough to allow such a super-spreader to cause
another international crisis. Arab News and Recombinomics and World Health Organization (WHO)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Environment Protection,
cadmium, nickel, arsenic, Guangzhou,
Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV

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*** 20-Apr-14 World View -- Orthodox Christians celebrate the Holy Fire ceremony at Easter

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Orthodox Christians celebrate the Holy Fire ceremony at Easter
• Ukraine calls an Easter Truce
• Japan to set up an army radar base near China

****
**** Orthodox Christians celebrate the Holy Fire ceremony at Easter
****


Agios Thomas (Saint Thomas) Church in Athens, just after midnight on Easter

The Holy Fire ceremony is possibly the most impressive celebration in
all of Christianity, and is performed each year for Orthodox Easter,
which occurs this year on April 20. (This is one of the rare years
where the Orthodox and Catholic Easters coincide.)

On Saturday morning, Orthodox clergymen break the seal of the door to
Christ's tomb in Jerusalem and descend into the chamber. After a
while, they emerge with lit candles. Believers say that the "Holy
Fire" appears spontaneously from the tomb on the day before Easter to
show Jesus has not forgotten his followers.

The fire is passed from candle to candle, and is flown to Athens and
other cities, so that the Holy Fire can be shared by thousands of
worshippers. In Athens, the ceremony begins at 11 pm on Saturday,
when practically the entire country is in church. At midnight, the
lights are turned off, and everyone's candle is lit with the Holy Fire
from the priest's candle, as the priest says, "Christ has risen from
the dead and in so doing has trampled on death and to those in the
tombs he has given life." Then people head home with their lit
candles, and the entire city is lit by the candles with the Holy Fire.
The ceremony dates back to the fourth century, and possibly as early
as the first century. HolyFire.org and Greece Travel

****
**** Ukraine calls an Easter Truce
****

Ukraine's government in Kiev has announced an Easter truce in it
"anti-terrorist operation" against the pro-Russian separatists in
eastern Ukraine. According to Thursday's agreement between Russia,
Ukraine and the West, such operations may be illegal anyway.

The pro-Russian separatists continue to refuse to leave the buildings
they occupy or remove the blockades they set up, as called for in
Thursday's agreement.

However, the separatists are said to be disappointed that a new poll
indicates that 57.2% of the people in Donetsk, the center of the east
Ukraine activists, say that Kiev has not violated their rights, and
66.3% say they are against a Russian military intervention. BBC and AFP

****
**** Japan to set up an army radar base near China
****

In a move that will surely infuriate the Chinese, Japan on Saturday
broke ground for a new radar station and army base on Yonaguni island,
which is Japan's westernmost inhabited island, and is closer to Taiwan
and China than it is to mainland Japan. It has a population of 1,500,
down from about 15,000 at the end of World War II.

According to Japan's Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera:

<QUOTE>"This is the first deployment since the US returned
Okinawa (1972) and calls for us to be more on guard are growing.
I want to build an operation able to properly defend islands that
are part of Japan's territory."<END QUOTE>

Building the base will extend Japanese monitoring to the Chinese
mainland and allow it to track Chinese ships and aircraft circling the
disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Opinion among residents of Yonaguni island is split, with opponents
fearing that the base will one day bring a military attack, and
proponents hoping that the radar base will bring young soldiers and
new money, and will breathe life into the wilting economy. Japan Times and Reuters and The Diplomat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Easter, Holy Fire, Jerusalem, Athens,
Ukraine, Russia, Donetsk,
Japan, Yonaguni Island, Itsunori Onodera, Senkaku, Diaoyu

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*** 21-Apr-14 World View -- Palestinian president Abbas, 79, faces life after 'peace talks' collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gunfight in east Ukraine raises fears of renewed violence
• Palestinian president Abbas, 79, faces life after 'peace talks' collapse
• Massive attack on AQAP in Yemen kills dozens of militants
• Suicide and murder rate for bankers continues to increase

****
**** Gunfight in east Ukraine raises fears of renewed violence
****


Site of the gunfight in Slavyansk in east Ukraine on Sunday (AFP)

Just four days after Russia, Ukraine and the West signed an agreement
calling for the de-escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, a gunfight at
a checkpoint in east Ukraine, killing three people, has raised fears
that the agreement may collapse.

At around 2 am on Sunday morning, unidentified men in four vehicles
opened fire at a checkpoint near Slavyansk manned by pro-Russian
activists, killing three. The activists returned fire, destroying the
two cars and injuring some of the attackers.

Russia is expressing outrage, blaming the attack on Right Sector, a
nationalist militia group that was prominent in the February
revolution in Kiev.

However, the Ukraine government says that forensic evidence gathered
at the scene does not support the claim that Right Sector was
involved, but instead appears to show that the evidence was staged to
falsely implicate Right Sector.

At any rate, so far this is an isolated incident, and does not yet
appear to signal the beginning of a wider war. Irish Independent

****
**** Palestinian president Abbas, 79, faces life after 'peace talks' collapse
****

The Mideast "peace talks" between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority, set up last year by the Obama administration and Secretary
of State John Kerry, have never been anything but a joke, but at least
they were something to talk about as supposedly providing "hope for a
lasting Mideast peace, with Israel and Palestine as two separate and
equal nations living side by side in peace forever."

But now the self-imposed deadline for the talks to end, April 29, is
approaching, and neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis are
indicating much desire to extend the deadline. Israel will never
agree to return to pre-1967 borders or "right of return," and the
Palestinians will never agree to recognize Israel as a Jewish state or
to guarantee Israel's security.

So now, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is wondering what
to do next, now that even the pretend-hope solution is disappearing.
Abbas is quoted in an interview Sunday as saying:

<QUOTE>"A new generation arrives and asks us: ‘What have you
done?’ I am now 79 years old, going on 80. Time has really flown
by.

There is no other option except to pass the flag and move on, but
it is difficult to do so now because the burden is a tough one and
the responsibility is great while the dangers trump the
achievements. Who of our people will support us and who will
oppose us? What will the Palestinian people do? How will history
judge us?

The settlements endanger the peace process, and the new generation
sees the two-state solution is becoming less and less likely, and
that there is no escape from the one-state solution."<END QUOTE>

What does the "one-state solution" mean? It means that the
Palestinian Authority (PA) would dissolve, Mahmoud Abbas would retire,
and the only state left would be Israel. Either Israel or the United
Nations would then be responsible for governing the West Bank.
Without the "peace process," according to Abbas, this is the only
remaining choice.

The major aspirant to replace Abbas is his bitter rival, 52 year old
Mohammed Dahlan. Dahlan has called Abbas a "catastrophe" for the
Palestinian people, and would take a much more confrontational,
possibly violent approach to Israel. When Abbas asks the question,
"Who of our people will support us and who will oppose us?",
he's suggesting that passing the flag to Dahlan and the younger
generation will lead to war -- among the Palestinians and
with Israel.

Israel's economy minister Naftali Bennett responded on Sunday to
Abbas' statement:

<QUOTE>"“Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas] encourages terrorism
against Israel as the head of the Palestinian Authority, and then
he threatens us with his resignation.

If he wants to go, we won’t stop him. The Jewish people do not
negotiate with a gun held against their temple."<END QUOTE>

Jerusalem Post and Jewish Telegraphic Agency

****
**** Massive attack on AQAP in Yemen kills dozens of militants
****

A high-level official in Yemen's government is saying that a "massive
and unprecedented" military operation against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) is under way, and that at least 30 AQAP militants
have already been killed. Yemen's state news agency said that
airstrikes completely destroy an al-Qaeda training camp, where the
fighters were "preparing to launch attacks against Yemeni and foreign
interests in the area." It's believed, but not confirmed, that
U.S. drones were used in the attack. CNN
and AP

****
**** Suicide and murder rate for bankers continues to increase
****

It's being increasingly noticed, though discussed in only hushed
tones, that that there have been quite a few bankers committing
suicide in the last few months. Some reports suggest, without
official confirmation, that some of the bankers who committed suicide
were under investigation for fraud and other irregularities.
There have been 24 suicides or suspicious deaths in the last
few months, six of them related to JP Morgan.

In the past couple of weeks, suicides have been replaced with
murder. A banker in Lichtenstein and a banker in Belgium were
both murdered, probably by disgruntled clients.

As I've said in the past, when I was growing up in the 1950s, I never
understood why my parents and teachers and so many other people really
hated bankers. Bankers seemed like perfectly reasonably people, and
it seemed strange to me that so many people hated them. This was a
mystery to me for my whole life. It wasn't until the 1970s or so that
people seemed to like bankers again.

The mystery was finally solved for me in 2009. (See "An angry President Obama strongly condemns Wall Street bonuses"
from 2009.) That's when I was
shocked to learn that Citibank, Bank of America and other banks
announced that they would continue paying million dollar bonuses to
their employees that had created the financial crisis. These and
other banks had caused the financial crisis by creating worthless
structured securities and fraudulently selling them to investors.
Paying big bonuses to people who defrauded the public for years is, at
the very least, a public relations disaster.

So that's when I understood that bankers in the 1930s were like
bankers today. Just like today, bankers had defrauded people in the
1920s and 1930s, although they used synthetic securities based on
foreign government bonds in those days, rather than synthetic
securities based on subprime mortgages as in the recent episode. (See
"The bubble that broke the world" from 2007.) And people came to hate bankers so much,
that the hatred lasted well into the 1950s and 1960s.

This has also led to a personal revelation for me. My mother's father
was a Greek immigrant who came to Chicago and built a very successful
retail candy business in the 1920s. But he "lost his business" in the
1930s, and died soon after "of a broken heart," according to my
mother. I now realize what must have happened. Some banker had
convinced my grandfather to invest his savings and mortgage his
business to invest in foreign government bonds or other synthetic
securities, and he "lost his business" when he couldn't repay his
debt. My mother then had to go out and earn money to support her
family. This is like so many people in the last decade who lost their
homes and businesses after investing in fraudulent subprime-based
securities. That would explain why my mother's hatred of bankers ran
so deep, even in the 1950s. She must have blamed a banker not only
for making her father lose her business, but also for causing his
death and forcing her into the workplace.

There have been a million jokes and stories told about bankers and
stock brokers who killed themselves in the 1930s by jumping out of
buildings. The recent spate of banker suicides may be history
repeating itself. And if history is any guide, and it is, then
bankers are going to be even more hated in the decades to come.
ZeroHedge and Prison Planet


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Slavyansk, Right Sector, Russia,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine, Israel, Mohammed Dahlan, Naftali Bennett,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Yemen,
banker suicides, JP Morgan, Bank of America

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What does the "one-state solution" mean? It means that thePalestinian Authority (PA) would dissolve, Mahmoud Abbas would retire,
and the only state left would be Israel. Either Israel or the UnitedNations would then be responsible for governing the West Bank.
Without the "peace process," according to Abbas, this is the onlyremaining choice.

I've seen reference to another kind of "one-state solution". This solution would be a unified Israel/Palestine, a single multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, multi-religious state. I have seen it raised by many US peace activists. It strikes me, personally, as being in Magic Pony land; sounds nice, but wildly impractical.

I'm with Abbas though; I don't see a way out. The Israel/Palestine situation is Tragedy, in the purest, dramatical sense. I can't see a Happy Ending here.

*** 22-Apr-14 World View -- MERS virus cases surge in Saudi Arabia, spread to Greece, Jordan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China seizes a Japanese iron ore carrier ship
• MERS virus cases surge in Saudi Arabia, spread to Greece, Jordan
• Philippine police will use 'reasonable force' coercing MERS tests
• Iran's President versus Supreme Leader on 'gender equality'

****
**** China seizes a Japanese iron ore carrier ship
****


The Baosteel Emotion bulk carrier, seized by the Chinese (MOL)

The Japanese firm Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) said on Monday, that China
has impounded one of its iron ore carriers, Baosteel Emotion, while it
was docked in Shanghai. A Shanghai court ruled that the ship could be
seized for damages and reparations because MOL's predecessor company
in 1936 chartered two Chinese freighters that were later sunk by the
Japanese Navy. Japan claims that no reparations are due because of a
1972 agreement with China in which China agreed to renounce "its
demand for war reparation from Japan." However, China's foreign
ministry says that the claims are solely for commercial losses, and
unrelated to wartime compensation.

This incident is sure to frighten Japanese companies from doing
business with China, and that may be China's motive in pursuing this.
China has threatened economic sanctions against Japan in the past.
Japan has just reported its worst annual trade deficit in March, with
export growth slowed to the weakest in a year, and this incident will
only hurt Japan further. LA Times and Xinhua and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Business Standard

****
**** MERS virus cases surge in Saudi Arabia, spread to Greece, Jordan
****

One expert explains it this way:

<QUOTE>"It took us over a year to get the first hundred cases
of this viral infection. Now in just the last two weeks, we've
had a hundred cases ... there's a major change occurring that
cannot just be attributed to better case detection. Something's
happening.

When humans readily transmit [a virus] to humans, that's what will
cause a worldwide outbreak. We are very concerned that ... with
what we've seen over the last two weeks ... we may be at that
point now.""<END QUOTE>

The fear is that MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome
coronavirus) has mutated in some way that's going to make it easier to
spread from one person to another. Saudia Arabia has confirmed more
than 50 cases of the virus in the past week, with 13 new cases
reported on Monday alone. There have been 257 cases total worldwide
since it was discovered in September 2012, with 93 deaths. A new
cluster was reported in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this week. A
69-year old male Greek citizen residing in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, was
diagnosed in Greece as having MERS. New cases are reported in Jordan.
MERS has an incubation period of 2 weeks, meaning that you can be
infected and spread the disease to other people for two weeks before
you start to show symptoms yourself. The sudden rapid surge in cases
is raising fears that the disease is far more widespread in Saudi
Arabia than previously assumed, and that travelers to and from Jeddah
are spreading the disease to other countries. CNN and Recombinomics and NPR

****
**** Philippine police will use 'reasonable force' coercing MERS tests
****

All 414 passengers on the April 15 Etihad Airlines flight from Jeddah,
Saudi Arabia, to Manila, the Philippines, are being tested for
MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus). At
least 100 of the passengers have been tested so far, all with negative
results. The need for testing was triggered when a 32-year-old
overseas Filipino worker (OFW) who arrived from Riyadh on Sunday
(4/20) was suspected of having MERS. Police are tracking
down the remaining passengers on the 4/15 flight, and will
use "reasonable force" to compel them to submit themselves for
a medical examination. The police officers are also being warned
to take reasonable precautions to protect themselves.

According to Philippine authorities, most government hospitals in
Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries continue to employ
Filipino nurses and hospital staff. Around 3,000 OFWs (overseas
Filipino workers) are leaving the country daily and many of them are
bound for Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries. Philippine Star (Manila)

****
**** Iran's President versus Supreme Leader on 'gender equality'
****

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said on Sunday that Iran would not
accept any form of sexual discrimination.

Undoubtedly, Rouhani was responding to the remarks a day earlier by
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who who criticized the
West's view's about "gender equality between men and women." He said,
Equality is not always the same as justice; justice is always right,
but equality is sometimes right and sometimes wrong." Khamenei
emphasized that the most important issue for women is the sense of
security and peace of mind that women find within families. Press TV (Tehran) and Business Standard


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, China, Baosteel Emotion,
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, MOL,
Saudi Arabia, Greece, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV
Philippines

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*** 23-Apr-14 World View -- Arab countries recruit more soldiers from Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab countries recruit more soldiers from Pakistan
• U.S. threatens to cut off all aid to the Palestinians
• ZeroHedge: China's commodity and real estate bubbles are bursting
• 45 people in Chicago shot over the weekend

****
**** Arab countries recruit more soldiers from Pakistan
****


Pakistani soldiers (pakarmedforces.com)

Saudi Arabia has begun recruiting soldiers the Pakistan's tribal
areas, which are the stronghold of Taliban and al-Qaeda militants.
According to a report on the recruitment:

<QUOTE>"Youths skilled in firearms are given preferences.

Monthly salary 75,000 rupees [$750]. Medical and other facilities
will also be given.

Will be deployed on borders with Yemen and oil
installations."<END QUOTE>

Preference is being given to youths skilled in using an AK-47.
According to the Saudis, up to $20 billion in foreign exchange could
come annually to Pakistan.

Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman are also recruiting in Pakistan.
Kuwait is opening a military office in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad,
to recruit retired Pakistani military officers and trainers to train
11,000 Kuwaiti soldiers.

Ten years ago, based on a generational analysis, I said that the
coming Clash of Civilizations world war would pit the West, India,
Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.
Ten years ago, that seemed far-fetched, but as each year goes by, the
trend continues to move in that direction. Memri (4/15)
and Memri

****
**** U.S. threatens to cut off all aid to the Palestinians
****

As we reported two days ago, 79 year old Palestinian president Mahmoud
Abbas is threatening to personally retire, and also "retire" the
Palestinian Authority (PA) that's responsible for governing the West
Bank, leaving it to Israel and the United Nations to take
responsibility. ( "21-Apr-14 World View -- Palestinian president Abbas, 79, faces life after 'peace talks' collapse"
)

The U.S. State Department is responding with a threat to cut off
all aid to the Palestinians, according to spokesman Jen Psaki at
Monday's press conference:

<QUOTE>QUESTION: "Are you telling Abbas not to keep issuing
statements and proclamations that they are going to sort of just
close shop with the PA and turn over the occupation responsibility
to the Israelis?"

MS. PSAKI: "Well, let me speak to that, because it’s an important
question. That – we’re aware, of course, of these reports and
comments. That type of extreme step would obviously have grave
implications. A great deal of effort has gone into building
Palestinian institutions by Palestinians as well as the
international community, and it would certainly not be in the
interests of the Palestinian people for all of that to be lost. We
– the United States has put millions of dollars into this
effort. It would obviously have very serious implications for our
relationship, including our assistance going
forward."<END QUOTE>

The Palestinian Authority gets about $400 million in aid each year
from the U.S. Members of Congress have already threatened cut aid
earlier this month, after Mahmoud Abbas applied for membership in 15
United Nations organizations as the State of Palestine. U.S. State Dept. and Israel National News (3-Apr)

****
**** ZeroHedge: China's commodity and real estate bubbles are bursting
****

For the last two months, the ZeroHedge blog has been publishing a
series of articles analyzing China's collapsing credit and real estate
bubbles, and responding to pundits who say that the collapse
isn't happening or that it's purely a Chinese domestic matter.

The latest offering shows how China has been creating huge
amounts of debt by using soybean contracts in the same
way that American banks used subprime mortgages. You'll recall
that investors were "flipping" properties in 2004-2007,
meaning that someone would buy a property, wait a few months for
properties to rise, and then sell it at a profit. This pushed
up the prices of all real estate. When the bubble burst, millions
of people lost their homes.

China has been "flipping" soybean contracts in the same way. One
Chinese business sells a contract to someone else at a higher price,
and everyone makes money, as long as the price of soybeans keeps going
up. And international soybean prices have been skyrocketing into
bubble levels in the last two months. The problem is that
international soybean contract prices have been getting ahead of
China's local soybean market, which has been getting depressed.
Soybean contracts are different from actual soybeans, and a price rise
in one doesn't necessarily mean a price rise in the other. So when
it's time for the soybean contract to be fulfilled, and the soybeans
are shipped for delivery to the contract holder, the holder has to
come up with the money he's committed to pay on the contract. But if
he's going to be stuck with a $10 million contract in soybeans for
which he can only get $3 million in his local market, then he'll go
bankrupt.

This has been happening more and more frequently in the last few
weeks, and it portends a bursting of the soybean bubble, along with
China's credit bubble in general. Since the soybeans are being
shipped from the United States and South America, a lot of soybean
farmers are not going to get paid.

It's estimated that Chinese buyers are going to default on a total of
about $900 million dollars in soybean contracts. That's a huge domino
effect, and it's going on right now.

I recall vividly how in 2006, all the expert economists were saying
that a real estate bubble is impossible because "everyone has to live
somewhere," and "these building contractors know what they're doing,
and wouldn't keep building in a bubble." Then in 2008, Ben Bernanke
and other expert economists were saying that there was a problem, but
the problem was "contained." What all this means is that the China
bubble may or may not be bursting, but that the "expert" economists
who say that a China bubble is impossible, or that it's "contained"
domestically, don't have a clue what's going on, and are probably full
of crap. ZeroHedge and Reuters

****
**** 45 people in Chicago shot over the weekend
****

In Chicago over the weekend, 9 people were killed and 36 were wounded
from gunshots. 6 children were shot on Sunday night. Almost all of
it was gang violence, scattered around the city. Unfortunately, this
is a typical Chicago weekend. Chicago is beginning to read like
Karachi, Pakistan, or Baghdad, Iraq. Chicago Tribune


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Jen Psaki,
China, ZeroHedge, Chicago

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*** 24-Apr-14 World View -- Obama says U.S. will defend Japan over Senkaku Islands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France plans to keep young people from going to Syria for jihad
• Obama says U.S. will defend Japan over Senkaku Islands
• Warring Palestinian factions announce a reconciliation agreement

****
**** France plans to keep young people from going to Syria for jihad
****


Screen grab from a jihadist recruiting video made last year by Toulouse Muslim converts Jean Daniel, 22, and half-brother Nicolas Bons, 30, after arriving in Syria in March. Jean-Daniel was killed in fighting in Syria on August 11, and Nicolas was killed by a truck bomb on December 22.

I've written many times how disastrous Russia's policy has been,
supplying unlimited amounts of heavy weapons to Syria's genocidal
monster president Bashar al-Assad, who is conducting "industrial
strength" torture and extermination on his own civilians, particularly
targeting innocent Sunni women and children, which has enraged Sunnis
throughout the world. As a result, Syria has become a worldwide
magnet for would-be jihadists and terrorists, who go to Syria
for training, before returning to make use of their new skills
in their homelands.

France estimates that about 700 French citizens or residents have gone
to Syria for training and to fight against al-Assad. Young people in
France see the war as revolutionaries fighting against a dictatorship
that's killing its people.

The administration of president François Hollande on Wednesday
announced a new set of measures to stop young people from going to
Syria and becoming Islamic radicals. Some of the measures are:

• Intelligence services will increase surveillance of
  web sites showing how to make explosives, or which recuit
  people for armed groups;
  
• Parents and family members will be asked to alert authorities if a
  relative has been attending fundamentalist mosques or visiting radical
  websites.
  
• "Strong intuition" that someone is thinking of going abroad to
  fight will be sufficient grounds for putting them on police records,
  some of which will be shared with other European countries.

This all sounds a bit 1984-ish, but it's the way things are going.
Radio France Internationale (RFI)

****
**** Obama says U.S. will defend Japan over Senkaku Islands
****

A few weeks ago we reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel,
visiting Japan, failed to reaffirm its mutual defense treaty with Japan
, and that the U.S. would
defend Japan if China attacked the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. But on
Wednesday, President Obama, visiting Japan, explicitly said that the
U.S. would honor the mutual defense treaty:

<QUOTE>"At the same time, the United States is going to deal
directly and candidly with China on issues where we have
differences, such as human rights. I’ve also told [China's]
President Xi [Jinping] that all our nations have an interest in
dealing constructively with maritime issues, including in the East
China Sea. Disputes need to be resolved through dialogue and
diplomacy, not intimidation and coercion. The policy of the United
States is clear -- the Senkaku Islands are administered by Japan
and therefore fall within the scope of Article 5 of the U.S. --
Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. And we oppose any
unilateral attempts to undermine Japan’s administration of these
islands."<END QUOTE>

However, Obama did not say that they are Japanese sovereign islands.

There is an increasingly widespread belief that despite any
promises, the U.S. under President Obama will not honor its agreement
when the actual crunch time comes. President Obama has backed
down from its world policemen on several recent occasions,
most notably when he flip-flopped on Syria's use of chemical weapons.

According to a Japan News newspaper editorial on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"Perhaps one motivation for Obama’s directness is to
challenge a prevalent perception of weakness, both home and
abroad. The U.S. Congress, media and think tanks have become
harsher in their appraisal of Obama in general, particularly since
Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed the Crimean Peninsula in
Ukraine last month using the threat of force as
leverage."<END QUOTE>

The U.S. has also recently (in February) explicitly rejected China's
"nine-dash line," by which China claims sovereignty over the entire
South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to
other nations. However, the U.S. has ignored China's "salami slicing
strategy," by which it has already annexed small regions in the
expectation that the U.S. will do nothing -- an expectation that
turned out to be correct. The Japan News
and Radio Free Asia and The Japan News

****
**** Warring Palestinian factions announce a reconciliation agreement
****

The two Palestinian factions -- Hamas, which governs Gaza, and
the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, which governs
the West Bank -- on Wednesday announced a reconciliation agreement.
According to Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh:

<QUOTE>"This is the good news we tell our people: the era of
division is over."<END QUOTE>

This announcement was apparently hastily negotiated by the two sides,
after Abbas announced that if the Mideast peace talks fail, which now
appears to be a certainty, then he may step down and dissolve the
Palestinian Authority, leaving the West Bank for Israel and the United
Nations to govern.

The agreement calls for new elections in the fall, to elect a
unity government for both the West Bank and Gaza.

The two Palestinian factions had a major political split in 2006, and
went to war in 2007, when Hamas took control of Gaza. Two previous
attempts at reconciliation have failed, because of disputes over power
sharing. However, it's thought that this new reconciliation attempt
might succeed, for the following reasons:

• Abbas's announcement he might resign and dissolve the PA
  shows, at the very least, that the PA has no real future. This
  announcement raises the possibility that the elections will put Hamas
  in charge of both Gaza and the West Bank, which would be a major
  generational change.
  
• Hamas has been falling on hard times. The new government in
  Egypt has shut down all the smuggling tunnels between Gaza and
  Egypt, and has declared some groups in Gaza to be terrorists.
  
• Also, Hamas has lost its main financial backers, Syria and Iran,
  after Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, began conducting an
  extermination campaign again Sunni Muslim Syrians, including hundreds
  of thousands of women and children.

However, there are also plenty of reasons why this attempt might
fail. The differences that brought them to war in the first place
are still there.

Israel has called off any further peace talks with Abbas, on the
grounds that Israel can't negotiate with a group, Hamas, that's
committed to the destruction of Israel. BBC and
Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Toulouse, Nicolas Bons, Jean Daniel,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, François Hollande
Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu, Chuck Hagel, China,
Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security,
Russia, Crimea, Vladimir Putin,
Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Ismail Haniyeh

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*** 25-Apr-14 World View -- Crimean Tatars and Ukraine seek help from Sunni Muslim countries

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine joins Crimea's Tatars in appealing to Turkey and Saudi Arabia
• Putin seeks to 'rehabilitate' the Crimean Tatars
• Israel cancels peace talks after Palestinian reconciliation

****
**** Ukraine joins Crimea's Tatars in appealing to Turkey and Saudi Arabia
****


Stalin's Red Army ordered Crimean Tatars to leave their homes on the night of May 18, 1944

Ukraine is applying to join the Organization for Islamic Cooperation
(OIC) as an associate member, as a move to protect the 300,000 Tatars
living in 300 Muslim communities on the Crimean peninsula, which was
annexed by Russia. The OIC was established in 1969 "to safeguard and
protect the interests of the Muslim world." It has a membership of 57
states. Russia, with a population of 27 million Muslims, is an
associate member.

While the world's attention has been focused on eastern Ukraine, and
the question of whether Russian troops will invade, Russia still has
many problems to deal with in the newly annexed Crimea. Ukraine's OIC
application is part of the growing ethnic tensions between the Crimean
Tatars and the ethnic Russians. A recent statement by a Russian
official that if Tatars don't like it in Crimea, "then they should
leave!" is provoking fears that that Russia plans to drive all Tatars
off Crimea.

Crimea is the historic homeland of the Tatars. In 1944, Russia's
dictator Josef Stalin deported 200,000 Tatars from Crimea to central
Asia, accusing them of collaborating with the Nazis. It was only in
the 1980s and 1990s that the Tatars returned in large numbers to
Crimea, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union and
Ukraine's independence. The Tatars see today's worsening situation as
a sign that Russia's president Vladimir Putin plans to repeat Stalin's
mass deportation of Tatars. Islam in Ukraine (Trans) and Jamestown

****
**** Putin seeks to 'rehabilitate' the Crimean Tatars
****

So on April 10, a delegation of Crimean Tatars reached Saudi
Arabia to apply for associate membership in the OIC. Although
it may take a few months for the application to be reviewed, it's
expected to be granted. In addition, Turkey's Foreign Ministry
has issued a strong statement demanding that the rights of
the Crimean Tatars be protected.

Putin responded on April 21 by signing a decree to "rehabilitate"
all the ethnic groups in Crimea that suffered repression until
Stalin. According to Putin:

<QUOTE>"Taking advantage of an opportunity, I would like to
inform colleagues that I have signed a decree on rehabilitation of
the Crimean Tatars, the Armenian population, Germans, Greeks - all
those who suffered from Stalin’s repressions."<END QUOTE>

It's doubtful that Putin's rehabilitation decree will do much to
remediate the tension, which may lead to violence. That scenario is
particularly possible on May 25, when Ukraine's presidential elections
occur. Russian activists in Ukraine have already said that they plan
to do everything possible to disrupt the elections. Particularly
vulnerable will be tens of thousands of Crimean Tatars, who are still
Ukrainian citizens, having refused to accept Russian passports, will
try to cross the border into Ukraine's mainland to vote, and return.
Itar-Tass (Moscow)
and Zaman (Ankara)

****
**** Israel cancels peace talks after Palestinian reconciliation
****

Following Wednesday's announcement of a reconciliation between
the two Palestinian factions -- Hamas, which governs Gaza, and
the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, which governs
the West Bank -- Israel's cabinet voted unanimously to suspend
all peace talks, and to take unspecified steps in retaliation
against the moves.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he will never
negotiate with a Palestinian government backed by Hamas. According to
Netanyahu:

<QUOTE>"Instead of choosing peace, Abu Mazen [Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas] formed an alliance with a
murderous terrorist organization [Hamas] that calls for Israel's
destruction. Abu Mazen formed an alliance with an organization
whose covenant calls for Muslims to wage Jihad against
Jews."<END QUOTE>

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat expressed "deep
disappointment" at the decision and said the following:

<QUOTE>"Benjamin Netanyahu and his government used the split
between the Palestinian factions as an excuse to reject a peace
agreement in the past. Today, they are using Palestinian
reconciliation as an excuse for the same thing.

The only logical explanation is that the Netanyahu government does
not want peace."<END QUOTE>

Jerusalem Post and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Organization for Islamic Cooperation, OIC,
Ukraine, Crimea, Tatars, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Josef Stalin,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat

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*** 26-Apr-14 World View -- Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suicide bombers strike hardline Shia campaign rally in Baghdad Iraq
• Nigeria's government under fire over schoolgirl abduction
• Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

****
**** Suicide bombers strike hardline Shia campaign rally in Baghdad Iraq
****


Image grab from video showing one of Friday's three car bombs at moment of explosion (AP)

Suicide bombers killed 31 people Friday at a campaign rally in
Baghdad, Iraq, attended by thousands of supporters of Asaib Ahl al-Haq
group, a hardline militant Shia group backed by Iran, and modeled
after Lebanon's Hezbollah. The al-Qaeda linked Sunni Muslim terrorist
group Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL).
ISIS is the group that has been fighting both the Bashar al-Assad
regime in Syria, and also his moderate opposition. ISIS is becoming
well-established in both eastern Syria and western Iraq, as secular
Shia/Sunni tensions grow throughout the Mideast. Next Wednesday's
election will be the first since the US pulled out combat troops in
2011. AP and BBC

****
**** Nigeria's government under fire over schoolgirl abduction
****

The Nigerian people are frustrated and outraged about the fact that
the government appears to be doing absolutely nothing to find the
location of the schoolgirls, aged 16-18, who were kidnapped by Boko
Haram under cover of darkness on April 16. Attempts were made to
abduct 230 girls, but 43 escaped.

The girls were abducted and carried away in trucks for many miles, and
the security forces did nothing to stop them. Since then, the army
appears to be doing nothing. They're not searching through forests or
following up on other leads, as far as anyone can tell. The
government has done nothing but produce a couple of reports, but even
those have not been released to the public. Many people believe that
some people in the government and some people in the army are
complicit with Boko Haram. Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan at a
recent church service claimed that Boko Haram members had infiltrated
the government, and now police officials are demanding that Jonathan
provide the names of the suspects.

Nigeria is half Christian and half Muslim, and this case has divided
the public along religious lines. The Christians believe that Muslims
in general are complicit with Boko Haram, while the Muslims believed
that they're all being unfairly blamed for the horrific actions of a
terrorist gang. The kidnappings took place in the far north, which is
mostly Muslim, and military operations there in the past have been
extremely violent, so much of the public is resisting intrusion by the
army, despite the kidnappings.

Defenders of the government and the army point out that the area where
the girls are being held is remote and heavily forested. It's also
close to Cameroon, which means that they could slip though porous
borders into nearby countries, including Chad or Niger.

Although this incident is unique in Nigeria's history, and has shocked
the entire nation, Boko Haram has abducted girls before, and when they
flee to escape the police, they leave the girls behind and abduct new
girls. Christian girls in the past who have been rescued were
sometimes found to be pregnant or have children, and others had been
forcibly converted to Islam and married off to their kidnappers.
Daily Post (Nigeria) All Africa and
CNN

****
**** Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space
****

Russian military aircraft entered Ukrainian airspace several time on
Thursday and Friday, raising tensions in eastern Ukraine.

Earlier, pro-Russian separatists seized a bus carrying international
military observers near the eastern Ukraine town of Sloviansk, which
is under control of the activists. Talks are under way to free them.

The have been a few horrific abductions and casualties and deaths in
the eastern Ukraine saga, but apart from those, the situation looks
more and more like a circus. I personally just can't wrap my mind
around the concept that this region is on the verge of a major war.

There's plenty of rhetoric to go around. You have the government in
Kiev saying, "The world has not yet forgotten World War II, but Russia
is already keen on starting World War III." You have Russia's foreign
minister Sergei Lavrov responding with, "The West wants - and this is
how it all began - to seize control of Ukraine because of their own
political ambitions, not in the interests of the Ukrainian people."
And the middle ring of the three-ring circus is Russia's armed forces
on Ukraine's eastern border, with soldiers running around, tanks
rolling around, and warplanes flying around to thrill people.

In the meantime, there's no upsurge of violence from the people. The
pro-Russian and pro-Kiev activists aren't rising up and killing each
other. The pro-Russian activists have taken over government buildings
in Sloviansk and other villages, but that's more a 1960s-style
Alinsky-style protest tactic, rather than a war. And if Russia's
president Vladimir Putin really wanted to invade, and risk getting
bogged down in a lengthy war, then he would have done so already.

It's worth noting that Russia already has its hands full dealing with
the Tatars in Crimea, and that Standard & Poors ratings agency on
Friday reduced the investment value of Russian bonds to near "junk"
status. Russia's economy is a wreck.

I could be wrong (this is not a Generational Dynamics prediction), but
my personal opinion is that eastern Ukraine is nowhere near war, and
Russia is nowhere near an invasion. In other words, Putin is
bluffing, in order to keep the pro-Russian activists happy, and to
gain maximum leverage with the Kiev government and with the West.
There may be isolated incidents of violence, and it's possible that
things will get worse as the May 25 elections approach, but for the
time being, I expect the circus to continue as it is. BBC and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Asaib Ahl al-Haq,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, Boko Haram,
Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Sloviansk

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*** 27-Apr-14 World View -- Al-Qaeda 'rubs hands with glee' at Snowden disclosures

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ethnicity to play a big part in Afghanistan election runoff
• Al-Qaeda 'rubs hands with glee' at Snowden disclosures
• South Korea's prime minister resigns over ferry disaster

****
**** Ethnicity to play a big part in Afghanistan election runoff
****


Abdullah Abdullah (L) and Ashraf Ghani (BBC)

U.S. ally Abdullah Abdullah got 44.9% of the vote in the first round
of the eight-candidate presidential race earlier this month. In
second place was Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister and World
Bank technocrat, with 31.5%. Since no candidate got 50% of the vote,
a runoff election is scheduled for June 7.

Ethnic identity is becoming a major factor in the election.
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
civil war fought between 1991 and 1996. The war was fought mainly
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan.
Today's Taliban terrorists are radicalized Pashtuns.

Abdullah is half Pashtun and half Tajik, but he's regarded as Tajik
around the country because he fought alongside the Tajiks during the
civil war. So it's perhaps not surprising that Abdullah got 80% of
the vote in parts of northern Afghanistan, while getting only 3% in
purely Pashtun areas in the south and east. In the election earlier
this month, the Pashtun vote was split among several Pashtun
candidates, but if you add together all the votes for Pashtun
candidates, then it exceeds Abdullah's vote.

Non-Pashtuns have rarely been elected president, and have done poorly
when they were. For example, the conservative King Habibullah was
lampooned as the "son of a water carrier" and was only in power for
less than a year at the end of the 1920s before he was executed.

If Abdullah does win, then he'll have to try to unify the country by
befriending the Pashtuns, which won't be easy given that he was with
people who were torturing, raping, decapitating and slaughtering
Pashtuns just 20 years ago. Deutsche-Welle and Bloomberg

****
**** Al-Qaeda 'rubs hands with glee' at Snowden disclosures
****

We have no way of knowing whether the massive intelligence leaks by
Edward Snowden have made our missile defenses helpless against a
missile attack by China, since neither the U.S. nor the Chinese
government are talking about things like.

However, there is one American enemy that is not afraid to talk about
it and brag about how it's helping them prepare secret jihadist terror
attacks against America and other targets: Al-Qaeda. According to
John Sawers, head of Britain's secret service MI6:

<QUOTE>"The leaks from Snowden have been very damaging, and
they've put our operations at risk... It's clear that our
adversaries are rubbing their hands with glee. Al-Qaeda is lapping
it up."<END QUOTE>

A recent issue of the English language Inspire, in the midst of
explaining how to encrypt communications to prevent Western
governments from learning about terror attacks before they occur, was
quite gleeful in its description of the Snowden leaks:

<QUOTE>"Obama lied in regard of the NSA program. He asserted
it did not spy on its citizens. But every dog has its day, and
NSA's day came when the whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed the
No Secret Agency's dark secrets. The people called for the
government to observe the American principles but it did not
listen. It abandoned all its privacy policies. This rogue country
did not stop at spying on its citizens, it killed them
too. Several of its citizens have been targeted in their extra
judicial killing program."<END QUOTE>

Al-Qaeda began using encryption tools in 2007 for its online
activities, and by 2009 was distributing a tool called "Asrar
Al-Mujahideen" ("Mujahideen Secrets"), based on military grade
security technology, to be used for communications by "anyone who
wants to wage jihad with us, and we will guide him to a suitable means
to kill the collaborators and the archons of unbelief – even in his
bedroom or workplace."

Although the "Mujahideen Secrets" provides totally secure
communications when properly used, jihadists and murderers are like
other people in that sometimes they're too lazy to do things right,
and many of the continued to use insecure communications channels like
gmail.

However, since the Snowden disclosures, al-Qaeda has changed all its
communications protocols, even refusing to accept messages that
haven't been properly secured.

For example, a recent article is directed at those wishing to carry
out lone wolf jihad attacks. It provides instructions for use of
encryption software in communicating with al-Qaeda's "military
committee," and promises help in planning and executing the attack,
and takes responsibility for providing media coverage. Memri

****
**** South Korea's prime minister resigns over ferry disaster
****

The sinking of a ferry off the coast of South Korea on April 16, with
476 passengers, mostly students and teachers, has taken its first
political casualty. South Korean Prime Minister Chung Hong-won
announced his offer of resignation in the fact of furious protests for
parents and family members accusing him of mishandling the situation,
and not responding quickly enough to save passengers. According to
Chung:

<QUOTE>"I wanted to resign earlier but handling the situation
was the first priority and I thought that it was a responsible act
to help before leaving. But I've decided to resign now, not to be
any burden on the administration."<END QUOTE>

Chung has a close relationship with President Park Geun-hye, and
recently took trips to China and Pakistan to improve political and
economic ties. With North Korea's government seemingly always in
chaos, it will be important for South Korea's relationship with China
to remain stable. BBC and
Korea Times (4/14)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Abdullah Abdullah. Ashraf Ghani,
Pashtuns, Tajiks, King Habibullah,
Edward Snowden, Al-Qaeda, John Sawers, MI6,
Asrar Al-Mujahideen, Mujahideen Secrets,
South Korea, Chung Hong-won, Park Geun-hye, China, North Korea

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I could be wrong (this is not a Generational Dynamics prediction), but
my personal opinion is that eastern Ukraine is nowhere near war, and
Russia is nowhere near an invasion. In other words, Putin is
bluffing, in order to keep the pro-Russian activists happy, and to
gain maximum leverage with the Kiev government and with the West.
There may be isolated incidents of violence, and it's possible that
things will get worse as the May 25 elections approach, but for the
time being, I expect the circus to continue as it is. BBC and AP

This article may be instructive.

• Al-Qaeda 'rubs hands with glee' at Snowden disclosures

That's not all they're doing!

*** 28-Apr-14 World View -- Philippines agrees to major return of U.S. military to counter China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines agrees to major return of U.S. military to counter China
• MERS virus spreads more rapidly in the Mideast

****
**** Philippines agrees to major return of U.S. military to counter China
****


Philippine army soldiers

America and the Philippines are about to sign a major agreement to
permit a large-scale return of U.S. military forces to bases in the
Philippines. The agreement is part of the larger "pivot to Asia" that
President Obama announced in 2011. For the Philippines, it will boost
the 120,000 man Philippine military as China becomes more aggressive
in annexing other countries' territories.

The U.S. has had military bases in the Philippines since the early
1900s, following the Spanish-American war, and the bases played a
crucial role for America in World War II and the Vietnam war. Subic
Bay and Clark became America's largest military bases outside the
U.S., but due to a substantial growth of anti-Americanism, The
Americans were thrown out in 1991. An agreement in 1999 permitted
temporary visits by American forces.

Not all the details have been announced, but this appears to be a
major policy reversal by the Philippines, triggered by China's
aggressive actions in the South China Sea. China has already annexed
the Philippines' rich fishing grounds around the Scarborough Shoal,
and has announced its intention to annex by military force territories
belonging to all the nations surrounding the South China Sea.

The arrival of a big American military base in the Philippines is
unlikely to cause China to back down. To the contrary, it will make
the Chinese public to become even more nationalistic, vengeful and
warlike, and the Chinese military to become even more bellicose and
aggressive. The probability of an accident or miscalculation
spiraling into a larger war is increasing. Philippine Star and AFP

****
**** MERS virus spreads more rapidly in the Mideast
****

The MERS virus is spreading more rapidly than had been expected.
Saudi Arabia has confirmed 26 more cases of MERS-CoV (the Middle
Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) in the last week, with 10
more deaths. At the same time, Egypt confirmed its first case of MERS
in a man who had recently returned from Saudi Arabia.

A recent study shows that the MERS had been common in camels for at
least 20 years, without spreading to humans. It was first diagnosed
in Saudi Arabia about two years ago, and it's suspected that the virus
mutated at that time to permit spreading to humans. The fact that
it's spreading more rapidly may mean that there's been a further
mutation.

MERS is similar in type to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)
that spread across Asia in 2003, infecting 8,273 people, killing 9%.
MERS is thought to be deadlier, but more difficult to transmit,
although the recent spike in cases may mean that it's spreading more
easily. Russia Today and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, China, Scarborough Shoal,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS

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*** 29-Apr-14 World View -- India's Narendra Modi says he'll deport 'Bangladeshis'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Narendra Modi says he'll deport 'Bangladeshis'
• John Kerry says that Israel could become 'an apartheid state'
• Dozens killed in Iraq bombing two days before election

****
**** India's Narendra Modi says he'll deport 'Bangladeshis'
****


Narendra Modi (AP)

Self-described Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) Narendra Modi, the leader
of India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and expected to be the next
prime minister, said on Sunday that he would deport Bangladeshi
immigrants:

<QUOTE>""I want to warn from here, brothers and sisters write
down, that after May 16, I will send these Bangladeshis beyond the
border with their bags and baggages."<END QUOTE>

He alleged that one of his opponents supported "vote bank policies,"
that allowed illegal Bangladeshi immigrants to obtain forged voting
IDs and ration cards for votes.

"You are spreading the red carpet for the Bangladeshis for the
sake of votebank politics. If people from Bihar come, they seem
to be outsiders to you. If people from Odisha come, they seem to
be outsiders to you. You feel bad if Marwaris come.

But if some Bangladeshi comes, your face seems to shine. This
country cannot run like this. We won't allow you to destroy the
country for the sake of your vote bank politics."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

Bangladesh was separated from India by the Partition, the 1947
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan,
leading to an extremely bloody war between Hindus and Muslims. A 1971
civil war within Pakistan itself led to the separation of Pakistan
from East Pakistan, which became Bangladesh.

In previous statements about deporting Bangladeshis, he appeared to
distinguish Hindus from Muslims. In February, he said: "We have a
responsibility toward Hindus who are harassed and suffer in other
countries. Where will they go? India is the only place for them. Our
government cannot continue to harass them. We will have to accommodate
them here."

Actually, he's been all over the map on this issue of "Bangladeshis."
Last month he alleged a conspiracy to eliminate rhinoceros to make
way:

<QUOTE>"Aren't rhinos the pride of Assam? These days there is
a conspiracy to kill it. I am making the allegation very
seriously. People sitting in the government ... to save
Bangladeshis ... they are doing this conspiracy to kill rhinos so
that the area becomes empty and Bangladeshis can be settled
there."<END QUOTE>

Either despite or because of his statements on Bangledishi immigrants,
as well as his promises to improve the economy, to end corruption, and
to adopt a tougher, more nationalistic foreign policy with Pakistan
and China, opinion polls indicate that Modi is the frontrunner for the
position of prime minister. India Times and NDTV (India) and NDTV (22-Feb)

****
**** John Kerry says that Israel could become 'an apartheid state'
****

In off the record comments that were secretly recorded, US Secretary
of State John Kerry said the following, with respect to the recently
collapsed Mideast peace plan that he had set up:

<QUOTE>"A two-state solution will be clearly underscored as
the only real alternative. Because a unitary state winds up either
being an apartheid state with second-class citizens—or it ends up
being a state that destroys the capacity of Israel to be a Jewish
state. Once you put that frame in your mind, that reality, which
is the bottom line, you understand how imperative it is to get to
the two-state solution, which both leaders, even yesterday, said
they remain deeply committed to."<END QUOTE>

As I've said before, it's hard to figure out what's going on with
Kerry. He burst onto the scene in 1971 when he declared to the Senate
that U.S. Army soldiers were rapists and torturers and no better than
Nazi stormtroopers, and he's been belittling the army and the United
States ever since. As Secretary of State, he says and does one stupid
thing after another, and stumbles from one foreign policy debacle to
the next. Is there some deep, brilliant, core plan that he's
pursuing, or is he really as dumb as he seems? Daily Beast

****
**** Dozens killed in Iraq bombing two days before election
****

At least 36 people have been killed and 60 injured in a suicide
bombing in eastern Iraq, two days before the country heads to the
polls in the first nationwide elections since the 2011 withdrawal of
US forces. The perpetrators are assumed to be the Islamic Emirate in
Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL), the same group that has
broken away from al-Qaeda and is recruiting jihadists in Syria from
countries around the world. The Baghdad government has been an ally
of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The number of suicide bombings
has been increasing steadily since the withdrawal of American forces
in December 2011, and has particularly surged this year as the April
30 election approaches. Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, Hindutva,
Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh,
John Kerry, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL

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*** 30-Apr-14 World View -- Proof that Syria's Bashar al-Assad used chlorine on civilians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Proof that Syria's Bashar al-Assad used chlorine on civilians
• Kerry says that Russia's Sergei Lavrov is 'Kafka-esque'
• Deadline expires for Kerry's Mideast peace talks
• Russia closes the Sea of Okhotsk to Japan and China
• China's 'Maritime Silk Road' plans threaten India in Indian Ocean

****
**** Proof that Syria's Bashar al-Assad used chlorine on civilians
****


Deaths from 18-April chlorine gas attack in Syria

Chemical warfare experts have examined soil samples taken from the
scene of three recent helicopter attacks by the army of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad and showed sizeable and unambiguous traces
of chlorine and ammonia present at the site of all three attacks. In
some cases, the chemical weapons were delivered in canisters marked
with their contents. Only the al-Assad regime has access to air
power, making it certain that the chemical weapons attack was carried
out by the al-Assad regime. Several people, including children, died
and hundreds were seriously wounded by the attacks. The three attacks
took place on April 11, 18 and 21, and there's additional evidence of
numerous other chemical weapons attacks by the al-Assad regime. Last
year, al-Assad used sarin gas
to
kill civilians. The attacks, once again, make Bashar al-Assad a war
criminal, but since President Obama flip-flopped last year on his "red
line," and did not carry out his threat to use missiles to destroy
al-Assad's air force, al-Assad is free to continue to commit genocide
with impunity, fully supported and supplied by Vladimir Putin of
Russia. Telegraph (London)

****
**** Kerry says that Russia's Sergei Lavrov is 'Kafka-esque'
****

Yesterday, we reported on
off the
record comments that were secretly recorded, where US Secretary of
State said that Israel could become "an apartheid state."

More comments from the same speech have now been published. In
them, Kerry specifically accuses the Russians of lying about
the Ukraine situation, and specifically refers to Russia's
foreign minister Sergei Lavrov not only as lying, but
also as "Kafkaesque":

<QUOTE>"Intel is producing taped conversations of
intelligence operatives taking their orders from Moscow and
everybody can tell the difference in the accents, in the idioms,
in the language. We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we
know where they are coming from. ...

It’s not an accident that you have some of the same people
identified who were in Crimea and in Georgia and who are now in
east Ukraine. This is insulting to everybody’s intelligence, let
alone to our notions about how we ought to be behaving in the 21st
century. It’s thuggism, it’s rogue state-ism. It’s the worst order
of behavior. ...

Right now there is not a negotiation; there is a
confrontation. I’m sad to report I’ve never seen such a complete,
miserable, unaccountable, disgraceful walk away from a set of
promises and understandings than what has taken place. I’ve had
six conversations with Lavrov in the last weeks. The last one was
Kafka-esque, it was other planet, it was just bizarre. Nobody is
better at telling you that red is blue and black is
white. ... That’s what we are dealing with."<END QUOTE>

Lavrov has been openly lying for years, as I've documented many times.
But Kerry has also continually sucked up to Lavrov by either believing
or pretending to believe Lavrov's garbage. Kerry is now changing his
policy, though I'm not sure why. Can't he just suck up to Lavrov a
little longer? What's the problem?

Franz Kafka was a brilliant early 1900s German novelist. His most
famous novel was The Trial, in which a man is arrested, jailed,
put on trial, convicted and executed, and he's never told what
the charges against him are. This is the sort of thing that
happens in Russia, and incidentally is also happening in Egypt
these days.

In another of Kafka's novels, the Metamorphosis, one day a man wakes
up, opens his eyes, and discovers that he's turned into a large
insect. Daily Beast and SparkNotes and SparkNotes

****
**** Deadline expires for Kerry's Mideast peace talks
****

The Mideast peace talks that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry set up
last July officially collapsed on Tuesday, as the self-imposed April
29 deadline was reached. The "peace talks" were considered to be a
joke around the Mideast, as the Israelis and the Palestinians rarely
even spoke to each other. By the end of March, the whole thing was
reduced to angry finger-pointing. John Kerry blamed Israel,
suggesting that Israel is becoming an "apartheid state." Palestinian
Authority president Mahmoud Abbas blamed the Israelis, saying:

<QUOTE>"If we want to extend the negotiations there has to be
a release of prisoners ... a settlement freeze, and a discussion
of maps and borders for three months, during which there must be a
complete halt to settlement activity."<END QUOTE>

And a senior Israeli official blamed the Palestinians, saying:

<QUOTE>"The moment that Mahmoud Abbas gives up the alliance
with Hamas, a murderous organization which calls for the
destruction of the state of Israel, we will be ready to return
immediately to the negotiating table and discuss all
subjects."<END QUOTE>

The Palestinians have indicated that they will now take unilateral
steps, including an attempted unity government between the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas, and applying to dozens more
United Nations organizations as the State of Palestine.
AFP

****
**** Russia closes the Sea of Okhotsk to Japan and China
****

The Sea of Okhotsk is in the northern Pacific ocean, bordering Russia
on two sides and Japan in the south. It's estimated to hold over one
billion tons of gas and oil, as well as vast fishing grounds. The UN
Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf confirmed Russia's
petition that the sea is sovereign Russian territory, and Russia's
president Vladimir Putin has announced that by the end of the year,
the sea will be closed to all outside shipping and fishing. This will
close a major fishing area to Japan and China, and forcing them to
compete even more intensively elsewhere in the Western Pacific,
raising tensions about their currently high levels. It may also
embolden the Chinese to move even more aggressively to annex the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, administered by Japan in the East China Sea,
and to annex more portions of the islands in the South China Sea.
However, China will not have a strong case in those venues, since it's
refused to submit the case to the United Nations for arbitration, and
indeed has has been taking revenge

against the Philippines for appealing to the United Nations Arbitral
Tribunal. Voice of Russia and Jamestown and World Atlas

****
**** China's 'Maritime Silk Road' plans threaten India in Indian Ocean
****

Since 2001, China has been pursuing a "String of Pearls" strategy,
with ports in Gwadar (Pakistan), Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and on the
east cost of Burma in the Bay of Bengal. Since then, China has
announced an expansion to a "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR), which involves
the construction of ports, logistical stations, storage facilities and
free-trade zones across the Indian Ocean all the way to Africa. China
is well on its way to developing the MSR, as shown by the ongoing
search for the Malaysian Airlines 370 plane: China has been the most
active and engaged participant in the search effort, with over eleven
naval and Coast Guard ships scouring vast tracts of the Southern
Indian Ocean. India has had no choice but to accept China's
encroachment, but will have to seek a way to hedge against China's
maritime thrust. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA - New Delhi)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Okhotsk Sea, Japan, China,
John Kerry, Israel, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas,
India, String of Pearls, Maritime Silk Road, Indian Ocean,
Malaysian Airlines 370

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Russia bars outsiders from Sea of Okhotsk.