*** 1-May-14 World View -- Uighur terrorist explosion in Chinese railway station kills three

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Uighur terrorist explosion in Chinese railway station kills three
• Syria's al-Assad now freely uses chemical weapons with impunity
• Syria still hasn't surrendered tons of chemical weapons

****
**** Uighur terrorist explosion in Chinese railway station kills three
****


Uighurs pose for photos in front of a portrait of Mao Zedong in Beijing (BBC)

Three people were confirmed dead and 79 others were injured, including
four seriously injured, in the terrorist attack on Wednesday evening
at a railway station in Urumqi, capital of China's northwest province
Xinjiang. Knife-wielding mobs slashed people at the exit of the South
Railway Station of Urumqi and set off explosives. A similar attack
took place on March 1 at a railway station in southwestern China,
killing 29 civilians and injuring another 143. Both attacks are
assumed to have been perpetrated by Uighur separatists from Xinjiang
province.

Turkic-speaking, usually Muslim Uighurs live in northwestern China in
Xinjiang province, which has been a source of activist violence and
separatist demands. China has responded with violent crackdowns, and
flooded the province with Han Chinese transplants, diluting their
population, in an unsuccessful attempt to pacify the Uighurs.

The March 1 railway station attack occurred at the opening of the the
annual meeting of the National People's Congress, headed by China's
new president Xi Jinping. Wednesday's railway station attack came
during Xi's first visit to Xinjiang since he became president. After
the attack, Xi said:

<QUOTE>"The battle to combat violence and terrorism will not
allow even a moment of slackness, and decisive actions must be
taken to resolutely suppress the terrorists' rampant
momentum."<END QUOTE>

The problem of attack in Xinjiang has been getting worse, according to
analysts, who say that the incidents are becoming more professional
and aimed at larger targets. Xi Jinping vowed to have a "strike
first" approach to security. Xinhua and BBC

****
**** Syria's al-Assad now freely uses chemical weapons with impunity
****

It appears Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad is now
using chemical weapons -- chlorine and ammonia -- on an almost daily
basis. His helicopters drop large barrel bombs on the homes of
innocent women and children. The barrel bombs contain explosives,
screws, nails and other shrapnel, plus canisters of chlorine and
ammonia. When chlorine is inhaled, it reacts with the moisture in the
lungs, turning into hydrochloric acid that literally burns the target
to death from the inside out. On Wednesday, activists report that a
helicopter dropped two barrel bombs laden with gas on the town of
Al-Tamanah in the early hours of the morning, with several casualties.

This shows what happens when there's no policeman. The criminals take
over and run everything. This is what's happening in Chicago and,
since President Obama took office, what's happening in the world.

A couple of days ago, Obama was asked what the "Obama doctrine" is in
foreign policy. He stumbled around for a while, and then gave a
non-answer and blamed it on Fox news. It's pretty clear that he has
no doctrine that he wants to talk about. But based on previous
statements, we can infer that his doctrine has two elements: (1) Look
at what President George W Bush did, and do the opposite. (2)
Announce that you will not use military force, and then do not use
military force.

As I've said before, this is a complete reversal of the 1947
Truman Doctrine, which
justified military police actions because they could prevent a new
world war, and because their costs in blood and money are tiny in
comparison to massive costs of World War II. This was later
reaffirmed by President John Kennedy when he said, "Ask not what your
country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."

Let's go back to 2003, and ask what would have happened if President
Bush had followed the "Obama Doctrine" with respect to Iraq, which
means he would have said the following to Saddam Hussein: "We will
never use military action, even if you develop and use weapons of mass
destruction (WMDs)." What would have happened then? (By the way,
recall that Saddam was already targeted with sanctions, so more
sanctions would not have mattered.)

Saddam Hussein would have gone full-speed ahead, with his WMD program.
Even if he delayed, Iran would ASSUME that he was going full-speed
ahead with his WMD program. Iran has already been victimized by
Saddam's WMDs in 1988, and they would not risk it happening again.
Iran would have gone full-speed ahead with its own WMD program, and by
this time there would have been another major war between Iraq and
Iran, this time with full use of WMDs.

That's what happens when the world's policeman tells the crooks and
the thugs that they can commit any crimes they want, and there will be
no consequences.

Last year, Obama's "red line" threat was that he would use cruise
missiles to destroy al-Assad's air force. If he had gone ahead with
that threat, then al-Assad would not be using helicopters to deliver
barrel bombs laced with chemical weapons to innocent women and
children. That's what happens when there's no policeman. Telegraph and Philadelphia Inquirer

****
**** Syria still hasn't surrendered tons of chemical weapons
****

Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime was supposed to have surrendered all
its chemical weapons by now, but it's still holding on to 8% of its
declared stockpile of 1,300 tonnes of chemical weapons. Al-Assad last
year agreed to give up his stockpiles of chemical weapons, but
obviously he has no reason to comply with his agreement, since there
are no consequences for failing to do so. The National (UAE)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xinjiang, Uighurs, Urumqi, Xi Jinping,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Truman Doctrine, Obama Doctrine,
Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Iran

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*** 2-May-14 World View -- New car bombing in Nigeria, while 200 kidnapped girls are still missing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia resurrects Mayday parade to celebrate Ukraine annexation
• Russia prepares for sanctions while ridiculing Obama
• New car bombing in Nigeria, while 200 kidnapped girls are still missing

****
**** Russia resurrects Mayday parade to celebrate Ukraine annexation
****


At Mayday rally, banners include the flag of the self-declared 'People's Republic of Donetsk [Ukraine]' (Reuters)

With the annexation of Ukraine's territory pushing the poll ratings of
Russia's president Vladimir Putin astronomically high into the 80s, on
Thursday Moscow staged the first Mayday parade in decades. According
to Moscow's mayor, more than 100,000 people marched in the parade.
"This is not by chance, because there is a patriotic uplift and a good
mood in the country," he said. There were also large pro-Putin Mayday
parades in other Russian cities, as in Simferopol, the capital of the
annexed Crimea region. The holiday will continue all weekend.

In the two weeks since an agreement on Ukraine was reached in Geneva
on April 17 by Russia, Ukraine, and the west, it's become pretty clear
that the Russians never had any intention of abiding by their own
agreement, and that Putin and Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
were simply lying. The Russians are using dozens or perhaps hundreds
of Russian special forces for training and other support of
anti-Ukrainian activists, as well as military threats, with the
purpose of destabilizing Ukraine as much as possible. The endgame is
presumably to create enough instability to give Russia an excuse for a
military invasion. It's possible that events are spiraling out of
control even for Putin, because of the highly nationalistic and
enthusiastic response of the Russian people and the pro-Russian
activists in Ukraine, following the annexation of Crimea. Reuters and Jamestown

****
**** Russia prepares for sanctions while ridiculing Obama
****

A lengthy analysis in Kommersant says that Russian officials
are very concerned about the long-term effects of the sanctions
that are being imposed on Russia as a result of the annexation
of Ukraine's territory. Of particular concern are
the sanctions against Russia's giant state-owned energy firm
Rosneft, and its head Igor Sechin.

<QUOTE>"Rosneft is actively working with U.S. companies.
Back in 2011 it became a strategic partner of ExxonMobil. ... In
exchange for the fields on the shelf of the Russian Arctic and
Black Sea, Rosneft received assets in Texas, Gulf of Mexico and
Canada. Igor Sechin himself traveled on business to the United
States at least three times in two years. In April 2012, he was
still in the position of Deputy Prime Minister, and led a
delegation ... to New York at the presentation of the Russian oil
industry. Then he compared the alliance of "Rosneft" and
ExxonMobil with a "flight to the Moon," called for getting rid of
"skeletons in the closet" and abandoning historical stereotypes in
Russian-American relations. ...

[Rosneft] hoped that ExxonMobil would intervene and convince the
White House not to impose sanctions against Igor Sechin.
"Obviously, this has not happened, which was to some extent
unexpected," says [one analyst]. None of them fully understand
what may be the real impact of the sanctions."<END QUOTE>

Russian officials are particularly concerned that the sanctions "may
develop slowly as in the Iranian scenario. ... U.S. sanctions against
Iran after their period of active development in 1980-1981 the series
and slowly tightened until 2004."

The Russians see the sanctions as the result of the weakness of
President Barack Obama and the need to "save face," and to
gain advantage at the expense of the European Union:

<QUOTE>"Inside the country, [the situation] gives President
Obama an opportunity to save face and to answer his Republican
critics, who accuse him of indecision and constantly losing to
President Putin. Moreover, we should not forget that the
sanctions against Russia have little negative effect on
Washington, in comparison to the EU, according to one expert.
"The EU and Russia may suffer from the sanctions, while the United
States will benefit from this opportunity to mobilize allies and
remind them of American leadership."<END QUOTE>

Kommersant (Trans) and Jamestown

****
**** New car bombing in Nigeria, while 200 kidnapped girls are still missing
****

If over 200 girls had been kidnapped almost anywhere else in the
world, it would be a big story, at least as big as that of Malaysian
flight 370. And yet, despite reports that the girls, aged 16-18, are
being forced into marriage or sold as slave girls for $12 each by
their Boko Haram terrorist captors, the desperate parents of the girls
are wondering why nobody in the West is coming to the aid of Nigeria
in searching for the girls, or is even acknowledging the situation.

This mass abduction occurred only a few days after a major terrorist
Boko Haram attack ( "15-Apr-14 World View -- Major terrorist explosion in Nigeria's capital kills over 70"
). And now, on Thursday, a new major car bombing
occurred, killing 19 people. The new bombing was just two blocks away
from the last bombing, on the outskirts of the capital city, Abuja.

It turns out that, according to one Nigerian analyst, even Nigerians
themselves are actually gleeful at the abduction of the girls.
The reason is that opponents of the president Goodluck Jonathan
see this as an opportunity to highlight his ineffectiveness,
with the approach of the election scene. This horrific pattern
of placing politics above any shred of humanity is hardly
unknown in America. According to one Nigerian columnis:

<QUOTE>"Indeed, the “weakness” of a President or the security
apparatus under his tenure – whether the “weakness” is real or
imagined – cannot be a justification for the mass murder committed
through the [car bombings]. But the detractors of President
Jonathan who blame the “worsening” of the Boko Haram attacks on
his “weakness” and the “inadequacy” of his administration’s
efforts to combat the insurgency would rather think otherwise.
And one of them, in a curios post on social media recently,
reacting to the reported threat by the insurgents to kill the
abducted girls in their custody if the government’s search for
them continues, said all that was happening because “our
government has been sleeping”.

I listen to such reactions for any strain of condemnation for the
kidnap of the schoolgirls – which the Senate President, David
Mark, has rightly described as “sacrilegious” – and I hear none;
and I am astonished by how politics might have debased the
humanity of some of our citizens, men and women who would rather
gloat against the government for its “inability” to prevent the
murder or kidnap of their fellow citizens and their children, than
respond to the humane imperative to condemn such acts, apparently
because they serve their political ends."<END QUOTE>

If Nigerians themselves are so debased that they don't care about the
abduction of 200 girls, then it's hardly a surprise that the rest of
the world doesn't care either. BBC and Business Day (Nigeria) and CNN



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Mayday, Ukraine, Crimea,
Rosneft, Igor Sechin, ExxonMobil, European Union,
Nigeria, Malaysia flight 370, Boko Haram,
Goodluck Jonathan

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*** 3-May-14 World View -- First case of MERS coronavirus reported in U.S.

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Obama accuses Vladimir Putin of being a liar
• State Dept. terrorism report emphasizes Syria as 'major battleground'
• Man infected with MERS virus traveled through Chicago to Indiana

****
**** President Obama accuses Vladimir Putin of being a liar
****


Angela Merkel and Barack Obama in Washington on Friday

Violence is spreading in Ukraine. It's mostly confined to a few
cities in the east, but there have been casualties in violence on
Friday in Odessa in southwest Ukraine. Russia's annexation of Crimea
leaves Ukraine with only one major port on the Black Sea, the port in
Odessa. If Russia also succeeds in annexing Odessa, then what's left
would be a rump nation, completely landlocked.

There's kind of an "honor among thieves and liars" creed that requires
liars to defend and support each other. Certainly President Barack
Obama has been consistently following that creed in terms of his
unending support for the claims of Russia's president Vladimir Putin,
whether the subject has been Iran, Syria, or more recently Ukraine.

So possibly the most significant Ukraine news on Friday is that
President Obama called Vladimir Putin a liar. It was during a press
congress with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, who's visiting
Washington.

Obama pointed out that pro-Russian activists shot down helicopters
using sophisticated surface-to-air missiles that could only have been
obtained from Moscow, and that neutral observers from the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have been abducted, and
that Putin is supporting the abductors, with the conclusion that
Putin's statements lacked "honesty and credibility." Here's Obama's
statement:

<QUOTE>"And one of the biggest concerns that we’ve seen is
the Russian propaganda that has been blasted out nonstop
suggesting somehow that the Ukrainian government is responsible
for the problems in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has
shown remarkable restraint throughout this process. The notion
that this is some spontaneous uprising in eastern Ukraine is
belied by all the evidence of well-organized, trained, armed
militias with the capacity to shoot down helicopters. Generally,
local protestors don’t possess that capacity of surface-to-air
missiles or whatever weapons were used to shoot down helicopters,
tragically.

We’ve seen the attempts of OSCE monitors -- who were approved not
just by Europe or the United States, but also by Russia -- being
detained. And somehow Russia is suggesting that Kyiv is
responsible for that? We’ve heard Mr. Putin say, well, Kyiv has
to do a better job of reaching out to Eastern Europe -- or eastern
Ukraine. You’ve seen attempts by Kyiv in a very serious way to
propose decentralization of power and to provide for local
elections, and for them to offer amnesty to those who have already
taken over these buildings. None of that has been acknowledged by
Mr. Putin or the various Russian mouthpieces that are out there.

You’ve also seen suggestions or implications that somehow
Americans are responsible for meddling inside Ukraine. I have to
say that our only interest is for Ukraine to be able to make its
own decisions. And the last thing we want is disorder and chaos
in the center of Europe.

So for the German audience who perhaps is tuning into Russian TV,
I would just advise to stay focused on the facts and what’s
happened on the ground. A few weeks ago, Mr. Putin was still
denying that the Russian military was even involved in Crimea.
Then, a few weeks later, he acknowledged, yeah, I guess that was
our guys. And so there just has not been the kind of honesty and
credibility about the situation there, and a willingness to engage
seriously in resolving these diplomatic issues."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this statement is a
sign of a worldwide change in attitude toward Putin. As I always
point out, it's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even
in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses
of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians.
Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do
is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes
of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither
cause nor prevent the great events of history. And what we're seeing
here is a widespread change of attitude that will affect the events in
Eastern Europe during the next year, and not for the better. White House

****
**** State Dept. terrorism report emphasizes Syria as 'major battleground'
****

The U.S. State Dept. issued its annual "Country Reports on Terrorism,"
and emphasized the role of Syria:

<QUOTE>"Syria continued to be a major battleground for
terrorism on both sides of the conflict and remains a key area of
longer-term concern. Thousands of foreign fighters traveled to
Syria to join the fight against the Assad regime – with some
joining violent extremist groups – while Iran, Hezbollah, and
other Shia militias provided a broad range of critical support to
the regime. The Syrian conflict also empowered ISIL to expand its
cross-border operations in Syria, and dramatically increase
attacks against Iraqi civilians and government targets in 2013.

Terrorist violence in 2013 was increasingly fueled by sectarian
motives, marking a worrisome trend, particularly in Syria, but
also in Lebanon and Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

The point I've been making now for over a year is that Syria has
become an international magnet for jihadists around the world,
from places as far apart as Indonesia, Pakistan, North Africa,
France, Germany and Dagestan. The State Dept. report confirms
that thousands of these jihadists have flocked to Syria.

What's happening in Syria is perhaps the greatest disaster of our
time. Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad has been
conducting "industrial strength" torture and extermination on his own
civilians, including repeated use of chemical weapons, particularly
targeting innocent Sunni women and children, has enraged Sunnis
throughout the world.

There are people who write comments to me saying that we should be
more worried about the al-Qaeda linked terrorist opposition groups,
like ISIL (mentioned above). But those comments don't even make
any sense. It's Bashar al-Assad who's CREATING these terrorist
opposition groups. As long as al-Assad is around, ISIL will
continue to grow and become stronger.

And once again we have to mention Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Putin is a war criminal, because he's providing an unlimited supply of
heavy weapons to al-Assad for use in genocide and crimes against
humanity. And now Putin is supplying heavy weapons to thugs in
Ukraine, and lying about it. Putin is in the running for the person
responsible for triggering the greatest and bloodiest world war of all
time. U.S. State Dept.

****
**** Man infected with MERS virus traveled through Chicago to Indiana
****

A health care worker flying from Saudi Arabia to London, then to
Chicago, and then traveling by bus to Indiana, was the first in the
U.S. to be diagnosed with MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory
Syndrome coronavirus). He was tested for MERS because of his symptoms
(shortness of breath, coughing and fever) and because he had traveled
from the Mideast. Although the CDC does not believe that he infected
other people, since close contact is required, it's theoretically
possible that he did, and so the CDC is contacting travelers on
the same plane and bus trips. Recently, travelers from
the Mideast have resulted in MERS diagnoses in Greece, Malaysia,
Jordan, Egypt and UAE.

The main problem is that a person can be infected with MERS, and
capable of infecting others, for two weeks before that person develops
symptoms. The biggest fear is that a "superspreader" will become
infected and spread the virus widely, causing a chain reaction of
multiple cases. Chicago Tribune and WebMd


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel,
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
State Dept., Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

There's kind of an "honor among thieves and liars" creed that requires
liars to defend and support each other. Certainly President Barack
Obama has been consistently following that creed in terms of his
unending support for the claims of Russia's president Vladimir Putin,
whether the subject has been Iran, Syria, or more recently Ukraine.

Perhaps Russia is 1 turning ahead of the US. That would make Putin a theoretical Xer.
Maybe Obama isn't really lying, but rather in reality "doesn't give a rat's ass about Ukraine".
So what he's really doing is just blowing smoke up folks' asses to get them off his case.
If Putin's a nomad, then he's doing what nomads do best. He's fenagling everyone to meet some objective.

But those comments don't even make
any sense. It's Bashar al-Assad who's CREATING these terrorist
opposition groups. As long as al-Assad is around, ISIL will
continue to grow and become stronger.

And once again we have to mention Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Putin is a war criminal, because he's providing an unlimited supply of
heavy weapons to al-Assad for use in genocide and crimes against
humanity. And now Putin is supplying heavy weapons to thugs in
Ukraine, and lying about it. Putin is in the running for the person
responsible for triggering the greatest and bloodiest world war of all
time. U.S. State Dept.

Has anyone ever clued Putin in on a phenonma known as blowback? Sheesh talk about a sky darkening number of chickens that will some day come home to roost.

A health care worker flying from Saudi Arabia to London, then to
Chicago, and then traveling by bus to Indiana, was the first in the
U.S. to be diagnosed with MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory
Syndrome coronavirus). He was tested for MERS because of his symptoms
(shortness of breath, coughing and fever) and because he had traveled
from the Mideast. Although the CDC does not believe that he infected
other people, since close contact is required, it's theoretically
possible that he did, and so the CDC is contacting travelers on
the same plane and bus trips. Recently, travelers from
the Mideast have resulted in MERS diagnoses in Greece, Malaysia,
Jordan, Egypt and UAE.

The main problem is that a person can be infected with MERS, and
capable of infecting others, for two weeks before that person develops
symptoms. The biggest fear is that a "superspreader" will become
infected and spread the virus widely, causing a chain reaction of
multiple cases. Chicago Tribune and WebMd

Just call it "Captain Trips" and be done with it. When's are the news outlets going to let us know Randall Flagg is running about?


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel,
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
State Dept., Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> Perhaps Russia is 1 turning ahead of the US. That would make Putin
> a theoretical Xer. ... If Putin's a nomad, then he's doing what
> nomads do best. He's fenagling everyone to meet some
> objective.

Yes, that sounds about right. If we take the 1925 victory of Stalin
(another Nomad) as the climax of the Bolshevik revolution, then the
Nomad archetype begins roughly around birth year 1940, which would
make Putin, born 1952, well into the Nomads.

John

*** 4-May-14 World View -- The 'Odessa Massacre' may portend Ukraine civil war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The 'Odessa Massacre' may portend Ukraine civil war
• Kiev: The fire was started by pro-Russians

****
**** The 'Odessa Massacre' may portend Ukraine civil war
****


Girls making Molotov cocktails in Odessa on Friday (Twitter)

There have been protests and blockades and building takeovers in
Slovyansk and other cities in eastern Ukraine, but there was real
violence on Friday in Odessa, a port city on the Black Sea in
southwestern Ukraine. More than 42 people were killed and dozens were
injured in clashes and their aftermath, when pro-Russian activities
occupied a building which subsequently caught on fire. Already some
people are referring to this as the "Odessa Massacre."

Both the war in Syria and the growing unrest in Ukraine are being
fueled by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, but it's well to remember
that there's a significant generational difference between Ukraine and
Syria. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, with plenty of
survivors remaining from the extremely bloody civil that climaxed in
the 1982 slaughter of tens of thousands of Syrians in Homa.

What has been driving Syria's civil war has been the actions of the
genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad, being fed unlimited
amounts of heavy weapons by Putin for use in his genocide. Syria's
civil war would have ended before now if (a) Al-Assad had been forced
to step down a couple of years ago; or (b) if Putin hadn't been
providing unlimited supplies of heavy weapons; or (c) President Obama
had carried out his "red line" threat last year of using cruise
missiles to destroy al-Assad's air force. The traumatized survivors
of the 1980s civil war have no desire to see another civil war.

But Ukraine, Russia, Europe and America are all in generational Crisis
eras, will little memory of the horrors previous crisis wars such as
World War II. Typically people are familiar with their country's
heroes and the enemy's injustices, and have no fear of the
consequences. What appears to be happening in Ukraine is that events
are beginning to spiral out of control in a generational Crisis era.
I'm not talking about a Russian invasion here, though that remains a
possibility. I'm talking about a civil war between the ethnic
Ukrainians and the ethnic Russians. Dozens of pro-Russian activists
were killed in a burning building in Odessa on Friday. Ukraine's
government says it's at war. What are the pro-Russians, with Putin's
help, going to do to get even with the pro-Ukrainians? VOA

****
**** Kiev: The fire was started by pro-Russians
****

Ukraine's Interior Ministry is saying that police investigation shows
that pro-Russian separatists in Odessa were responsible for setting
the fire. According to an Interior Ministry statement, separatists
broke into the trade union building and barricaded themselves
inside. They then started throwing Molotov cocktails from the roof,
and some of the incendiary devices hit the building causing a fire
that eventually killed more than 40 people, The Interior Ministry also
says that many of the Russian separatists in Odessa are from the
breakaway region Transnistria of Moldova.

Whether or not any of this is true, or whether it will be believed, is
not known. But it's a sign of the increasing complexity of the
situation in Ukraine. And given the generational crisis era mood in
Ukraine, it shows how easy it would be for something to spiral out of
control into a wider war. Kyiv Post



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Odessa, Black Sea,
Odessa Massacre, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 4-May-14 World View -- The 'Odessa Massacre' may portend Ukraine civil war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The 'Odessa Massacre' may portend Ukraine civil war
• Kiev: The fire was started by pro-Russians

****
**** The 'Odessa Massacre' may portend Ukraine civil war
****


Girls making Molotov cocktails in Odessa on Friday (Twitter)

There have been protests and blockades and building takeovers in
Slovyansk and other cities in eastern Ukraine, but there was real
violence on Friday in Odessa, a port city on the Black Sea in
southwestern Ukraine. More than 42 people were killed and dozens were
injured in clashes and their aftermath, when pro-Russian activities
occupied a building which subsequently caught on fire. Already some
people are referring to this as the "Odessa Massacre."

Both the war in Syria and the growing unrest in Ukraine are being
fueled by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, but it's well to remember
that there's a significant generational difference between Ukraine and
Syria. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, with plenty of
survivors remaining from the extremely bloody civil that climaxed in
the 1982 slaughter of tens of thousands of Syrians in Homa.

What has been driving Syria's civil war has been the actions of the
genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad, being fed unlimited
amounts of heavy weapons by Putin for use in his genocide. Syria's
civil war would have ended before now if (a) Al-Assad had been forced
to step down a couple of years ago; or (b) if Putin hadn't been
providing unlimited supplies of heavy weapons; or (c) President Obama
had carried out his "red line" threat last year of using cruise
missiles to destroy al-Assad's air force. The traumatized survivors
of the 1980s civil war have no desire to see another civil war.

But Ukraine, Russia, Europe and America are all in generational Crisis
eras, will little memory of the horrors previous crisis wars such as
World War II. Typically people are familiar with their country's
heroes and the enemy's injustices, and have no fear of the
consequences. What appears to be happening in Ukraine is that events
are beginning to spiral out of control in a generational Crisis era.
I'm not talking about a Russian invasion here, though that remains a
possibility. I'm talking about a civil war between the ethnic
Ukrainians and the ethnic Russians. Dozens of pro-Russian activists
were killed in a burning building in Odessa on Friday. Ukraine's
government says it's at war. What are the pro-Russians, with Putin's
help, going to do to get even with the pro-Ukrainians? VOA

****
**** Kiev: The fire was started by pro-Russians
****

Ukraine's Interior Ministry is saying that police investigation shows
that pro-Russian separatists in Odessa were responsible for setting
the fire. According to an Interior Ministry statement, separatists
broke into the trade union building and barricaded themselves
inside. They then started throwing Molotov cocktails from the roof,
and some of the incendiary devices hit the building causing a fire
that eventually killed more than 40 people, The Interior Ministry also
says that many of the Russian separatists in Odessa are from the
breakaway region Transnistria of Moldova.

Whether or not any of this is true, or whether it will be believed, is
not known. But it's a sign of the increasing complexity of the
situation in Ukraine. And given the generational crisis era mood in
Ukraine, it shows how easy it would be for something to spiral out of
control into a wider war. Kyiv Post



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Odessa, Black Sea,
Odessa Massacre, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin

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It is worth remembering that Odessa is much closer to the Romanian border than to the Russian border. I have my suspicion that Vladimir Putin has desires far beyond annexing areas on the fringe of Ukraine, and that would require the complete destabilization of Ukraine with the incorporation of Ukraine in full as an "associated Republic within the Russian Federation" (or whatever the formulation might be) or the establishment of a puppet state.

Know well: the pattern of Soviet aggression was to take over militarily, stage an election in which people ostensibly vote for incorporation into the Soviet Union or for some stooge parliament whose sole purpose is to 'request incorporation into the Soviet Union', followed by endorsement by a pliable Soviet in Moscow. Change "Soviet" to "Duma", and such is the process. That is how things would go if Russia were to take over Alaska. Or Finland. Or even Norwegian Lapland.

*** 5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan's pacifist constitution limits much military activity
• Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan

****
**** Japan's pacifist constitution limits much military activity
****


Shinzo Abe

After the end of World War II, Japan adopted a 'pacifist'
constitution, at U.S. insistence, that prohibited any military action
except in response to a direct attack on Japan itself. According to
Japan's Ministry of Defense:

<QUOTE>"After World War II, Japan has resolved to ensure that
the horrors of war will never be repeated and has ever since made
tenacious efforts to establish itself as a pacific nation. The
establishment of eternal peace is a sincere wish shared by the
Japanese people. The Constitution of Japan, upholding pacifism,
sets forth in Article 9 the renunciation of war, non-possession of
war potential and denial of the right of belligerency of the
state. Since Japan is an independent state, it is recognized
beyond doubt that the provision in the article does not deny the
inherent right of self-defense that Japan is entitled to maintain
as a sovereign nation.

Thus the self-defense right of Japan is not denied, and therefore,
the Government of Japan interprets the Constitution as being
allowed to possess and maintain the minimum level of armed
strength for self-defense necessary to ensure that Japan exercises
the right. On the basis of such understanding, the government has
adopted an exclusively defense-oriented policy as its basic policy
of national defense, has maintained the Self-Defense Forces as an
armed organization and has taken steps to improve their
capabilities and conduct their operations under the
Constitution. ...

The self-defense capability to be possessed and maintained by
Japan under the Constitution is limited to the minimum necessary
for self-defense. ...

But in any case in Japan, it is unconstitutional to possess what
is referred to as offensive weapons that, from their performance,
are to be used exclusively for total destruction of other
countries, since it immediately exceeds the minimum level
necessary for self-defense. For instance, the SDF is not allowed
to possess ICBMs, long-range strategic bombers or offensive
aircraft carriers. ...

The Three Non-Nuclear Principles are those of not possessing
nuclear weapons, not producing them and not allowing them to be
brought into Japan. Japan firmly maintains the principles as the
fixed line of national policy."<END QUOTE>

Under international law, if a nation's ally is attacked by another
country, then the nation may use its armed forces in defense of its
ally. This is known as "collective self-defense," and it particularly
can be invoked by either of two countries that have a mutual defense
agreement, such as the mutual defense agreement signed by Japan and
the United States. However, collective self-defense is prohibited in
Japan's constitution:

<QUOTE>"Under international law, there is recognition that a
state has the right of collective self-defense, that is, the right
to use armed strength to stop armed attack on a foreign country
with which it has close relations, although the state is not under
direct attack. It is beyond doubt that as a sovereign state, Japan
has the right of collective self-defense under international
law. It is, however, not permissible to use the right, that is, to
stop armed attack on another country with armed strength, although
Japan is not under direct attack, since it exceeds the limit of
use of armed strength as permitted under Article 9 of the
Constitution."<END QUOTE>

Japan Ministry of Defense, Part I and Part II and
Part III
and Asahi Shimbun

****
**** Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan
****

The issue of amending the constitution to allow more kinds of military
action has split Japan politically for decades, but it's particularly
heating up now for several reasons:

• Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has long wanted to
  amend the constitution.
  
• China has been increasingly belligerent in the East China Sea,
  particularly over the Senkaku/Daioyu islands, and North Korea has
  threatened Japan with missile attacks. The military says that it
  needs more flexible options to deter threatened attacks.
  
• Japanese law appears to contradict itself. Japan and the
  U.S. have a mutual defense treaty, but if an American ship were
  attacked near Japanese waters, Japan would not be able to defend it,
  because of the prohibition against collective self-defense.

Amending the Japanese constitution would be a difficult and
time-consuming process, so Shinzo Abe is supporting a workaround:
Reinterpret the meaning of the phrase "collective self-defense"
so in many cases, formerly prohibited activities would be
interpreted as being permitted as Japan's individual
self-defense. For example, an attack on U.S. warships near
Japanese waters could be construed as a prelude to an attack
on Japan itself.

Abe says that this change is essential for the survival of Japan.
Opponents say that approving the exercise of the right to collective
self-defensive is a "slippery slope" that will keep expanding to
permit additional non-defense military activity.

Japan News and Asahi Shimbun and Japan News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, collective self-defense,
China, North Korea, Senkaku, Diaoyu

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*** 6-May-14 World View -- Violence in Odessa Ukraine revives memories of Nazi massacre of Jews

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As immigrants surge into Greece, 22 die on Aegean Sea
• U.S. considers helping Nigeria find its abducted girls
• Pakistan travel restrictions urged to stop spread of polio
• Violence in Odessa Ukraine revives memories of Nazi massacre of Jews

****
**** As immigrants surge into Greece, 22 die on Aegean Sea
****


A fishing boat approaches the capsized vessel that had had 65 passengers on Monday (Kathimerini)

At least 22 people drowned, including several children, and 10 more
are missing when a dangerously overloaded yacht overturned as it was
traveling from Turkey to Greece through the Aegean Sea. There were
some 65 immigrants on the 30-foot yacht. The survivors were
from Syria, Somalia and Eritrea.

As we reported
in 2012, Greece has
been building fences and posting border guards along the Evros river
that separates Turkey from Greece. Since then, the number immigrants
making the dangerous trip across the Aegean sea has increased
substantially to about 1,000 immigrants per month. However, by April,
the number has surged further to 1,500. Kathimerini and Greek Reporter (4/12)

****
**** U.S. considers helping Nigeria find its abducted girls
****

The evidence is mounting that the administration of Nigeria's
president Goodluck Jonathan and the army have done little or nothing
to find and recover the 276 or so schoolgirls, aged 16-18, who were
abducted by the terror group Boko Haram on April 16. Reports indicate
that nothing was done even when leads to the location of the girls had
been provided. This had led to charges of ineptness or incompetence
or worse -- accusations that the government supports the terrorist
abductors. And on Monday, Boko Haram released a video bragging about
the abduction and threatening to sell them, usually for around $10-20
apiece. (This leads me to wonder, why doesn't the government just
"buy" them and return them to their parents?).

United States Secretary of State John Kerry pledged that the U.S. will
do "everything possible" to help return the captives to their
families. However, it's not clear what kind of help is being
proposed. Any sort of military help has been excluded, and presumably
this would prohibit the use of American drones to search for the
girls. CS Monitor

****
**** Pakistan travel restrictions urged to stop spread of polio
****

There was a time, several years ago, when the World Health
Organization (WHO) thought that polio could be exterminated completely
worldwide. This goal took a major turn backward in 2011 when the
administration bragged that a polio vaccination program in Pakistan
was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. Since
then, the Pakistani Taliban have been murdering health care workers in
Pakistan involved in polio vaccination, with the result that polio is
spreading in Pakistan, and being exported to other countries,
particularly China and the Mideast. According to WHO, polio has begun
to spread rapidly in 2014, particularly in Pakistan, Cameroon and
Syria. WHO is recommending, at the highest priority, that these
countries implement immediate polio eradication strategies, and ensure
that all travelers leaving the country receive a dose of polio vaccine
before leaving. WHO and Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Violence in Odessa Ukraine revives memories of Nazi massacre of Jews
****

Jews living in Odessa are considering an emergency evacuation,
under the expectation that violence will grow considerably
next week. Jews haven't been directly affected by the violence
so far, but the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews
have prepared a fleet of 70 buses, and are considering
renting a holiday camp to house 600 Jews away from Odessa
next weekend.

During World War II, the Nazi army and their Romanian allies massacred
some 30,000 Odessa Jews and Russians, beginning in October, 1941.
Feeling on all side have been polarized by last week's violence in
Odessa, especially because this week marks the defeat and surrender of
Nazi Germany on May 8, 1945. Ukrainian nationalists had collaborated
with the Nazis in fighting the Russians. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, this kind of polarization is most likely to
recur around the time that the survivors of the previous massacre have
disappeared (retired or died), which would be about now, and so the
Jews are right to be concerned about the possibility of violence in
Odessa. Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Turkey, Aegean Sea, Evros River,
Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, Boko Haram, John Kerry,
Pakistan, World Health Organization, WHO, Cameroon, Syria,
Osama bin Laden, China,
Ukraine, Odessa, International Fellowship of Christians and Jews,
Nazi Germany, Romania

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Is the conflict in Ukaine basically an ethnic conflict?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Is the conflict in Ukaine basically an ethnic conflict?

Kinda, but not really. Most of the Russian-speakers in the country are ethnic Ukrainians. It's more of a "who are we as a people?" struggle, with a healthy dose of economic/political frustration after 20 years of anarchic stasis and decline, exacerbated by outside interference.

I'm pretty sure it's a 2T and not a 4T type of thing, IMO.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Is the conflict in Ukaine basically an ethnic conflict?

Not at all. Ukrainian and Russian aren't different ethnicities, any moreso than Canadians and Americans are (less, really).

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Not at all. Ukrainian and Russian aren't different ethnicities, any moreso than Canadians and Americans are (less, really).

Well, there's a bit of a gradient. Rusyns / Lemkos in Central Europe, for instance, are fairly distinct, while people from the Donbas are basically Russian, even if they insist on spelling their name with an H and Y instead of a G and a I (transliterated, of course).

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Well, there's a bit of a gradient. Rusyns / Lemkos in Central Europe, for instance, are fairly distinct, while people from the Donbas are basically Russian, even if they insist on spelling their name with an H and Y instead of a G and a Y (transliterated, of course).

Oh, don't get me wrong. There are ethnicities. It's just that they've been so long mixed that there's not any real meaningful distinction (beyond a person's last name) in practice. "Russian" has a lot of ethnicities in it. And whatever thin blood-ethnic lines in Ukraine don't line up in any sensible way with the internal political divisions. Consider: Dmitri Kuznenko ("People's Mayor" of the separatists in Mariupol); Anton Davidchenko (protest organizer in Odessa); Artyom Timchenko (protest organizer in Zaporozhye); Aleksey Chaliy (Governor of Sevastopol) -- all "ethnic Ukrainians". Contrast to Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of hardcore-Western, anti-Russian Lviv); Yuriy Shukhevich (head of ultranationalist UNA-UNSO); Aleksandr Turchinov (Acting Prime Minister of Ukraine) -- all "ethnic Russians". And yet all these people are big players for the side ostensibly opposed to their ethnicity.

Or Yulia Timoshenko, who talked about wanting to nuke the "Moskals" while speaking in Russian, her native language. Or, the whole existence of "surzhyk".

I don't think there's any real disagreement between us here. It's definitely not an ethnic conflict in the way that is generally understood.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Or Yulia Timoshenko, who talked about wanting to nuke the "Moskals" while speaking in Russian, her native language.

It burns me to see...

Russian (and Ukrainian; here they are exactly the same) doesn't use a terminating -s to pluralize. They use either the 'yeriy' sound or a long-e, depending on whether the singular word ends on a hard or a soft letter. Both sound about the same to lots of foreigners so transliteration could reasonably look like "moskaly" (with stress on the last syllable).
But Tymoshenko didn't say she wanted to nuke "moskaly"*. She said she wanted to nuke the Russian castaways**. But just before that she talks about "picking up weapons and going out to waste those "katsapy"". Both are slurs for Russians, though the first is used inside Russia as a slur against muscovites -- as the word itself suggests. "Katsap" has its roots in a long-defunct word for "goat"; as far as I've seen, they say coming from the beards worn by the orthodox Russians (which at the time included a goodly chunk of Ukrainians, though not galicians). It's a much more inclusive term, since it's strictly speaking not correct to call a person from Khanti-Mansisk a moskal, but in any case he's a katsap.

----
*direct object, animate, means genitive case. genitive plural, transliterated, - "moskaley"

**изгой - I had to look the word she used up myself. It's not a slur, just an observation that any Russian left in Tymoshenko's Ukraine would be adrift and homeless as she sees it.

Thanks. Duly noted. I don't speak or read Russian so I have to go with what other people write.

*** 7-May-14 World View -- Iran's navy chief says he can sink an American aircraft carrier in 50 seconds

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Another terrorist attack on a railway station in China
• China makes plans for the collapse of North Korea's regime
• Iran's navy chief says he can sink an American aircraft carrier in 50 seconds

****
**** Another terrorist attack on a railway station in China
****


Police officers patrol at Guangzhou railway station after Tuesday's knife attack (Getty)

Six people injured in a knife attack at a railway station in the
southern Chinese metropolis of Guangzhou late Tuesday night. This is
the third high profile attack at a Chinese railway station in a little
more than two months. On March 1, several attackers with knives
killed 29 civilians and injured another 143 at a railway station in
the southwestern city of Junming. And on April 30, three people were
killed and 79 injured in a knife attack in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang
province in northwestern China, the home of China's mostly Muslim
Uighur minority.

As in the previous two cases, the perpetrators in this case are
assumed to be terrorists from the Uighur minority. Even though
they're using "low-tech" weapons, the Uighur separatists appear to be
getting more sophisticated in proving that they can strike at any
place and time of their choosing. Some of the most militant
separatist Uighurs have been training with jihadist organizations in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. As Nato troops pull out of Afghanistan this
year, it's likely that many militants fighting there will return to
China. Xinhua and Guardian (London)

****
**** China makes plans for the collapse of North Korea's regime
****

Japan's Kyodo news service has obtained documents outlining China's
plans in case the North Korea regime collapse. Of special concern is
a massive outflow of refugees and military personnel into China. The
refugees will be interned in camps, with political or military figures
assigned to special camps where they can be watched closely, to
prevent them from activities such as directing military activities.
However, the document makes no mention of china's military entering
North Korea, which would cause a repeat of the 1950s Korean War.
Kyodo (Tokyo) and The Diplomat

****
**** Iran's navy chief says he can sink an American aircraft carrier in 50 seconds
****

A couple of weeks ago, Iran announced that it would running military
war games that attack mockup of American warships and aircraft
carriers, including replica of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz.
On Monday, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Forces
Commander Brig. Gen. Ali Fadavi announced that their tests
have been successful:

<QUOTE>"Today the Americans and the entire world know that
one of our operational goals is destroying US Navy
Forces. ... Aircraft carriers provide US airpower in combat;
therefore it is natural that we want to sink them. ...

Americans are unaware of many matters. Their research centers
analyzed the mock aircraft carrier in a common way. We have been
building and sinking mock US destroyers, frigates, and cruisers
for years. We sank their models within 50 seconds even with
various operational [counter] measures. ...

We will execute this regarding the mock aircraft carrier as well
because destroying, annihilating, and sinking US boats has and
will be in our plans."<END QUOTE>

Fadavi claimed that IRGC speed boats can travel at a top speed of 40
knots, while US vessels are stuck at 31 knots. He added that Iran
planned to increase its boats’ speed to 80 knots, which he said was
three times the speed of US destroyers.

However, a spokesman for the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, which is
based in Bahrain says:

<QUOTE>"Firing weapons at a stationary structure floating on
pontoons is not a realistic representation of having the
capability to target a 100,000-ton warship ... maneuvering at
speeds in excess of 30 knots."<END QUOTE>

AEI Iran Tracker and Military Times/AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Guangzhou, Xinjiang, Uighur,
Junming, Urumqi, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
China, North Korea, Korean War,
Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, IRGC,
USS Nimitz, Ali Fadavi, U.S. Navy 5th Fleet, Bahrain

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Another terrorist attack on a railway station in China
****


Police officers patrol at Guangzhou railway station after Tuesday's knife attack (Getty)

Six people injured in a knife attack at a railway station in the
southern Chinese metropolis of Guangzhou late Tuesday night. This is
the third high profile attack at a Chinese railway station in a little
more than two months. On March 1, several attackers with knives
killed 29 civilians and injured another 143 at a railway station in
the southwestern city of Junming. And on April 30, three people were
killed and 79 injured in a knife attack in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang
province in northwestern China, the home of China's mostly Muslim
Uighur minority.

As in the previous two cases, the perpetrators in this case are
assumed to be terrorists from the Uighur minority. Even though
they're using "low-tech" weapons, the Uighur separatists appear to be
getting more sophisticated in proving that they can strike at any
place and time of their choosing. Some of the most militant
separatist Uighurs have been training with jihadist organizations in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. As Nato troops pull out of Afghanistan this
year, it's likely that many militants fighting there will return to
China. Xinhua and Guardian (London)

I have seen at least one report that suggests that the attackers may have been Hui (ethnic Han Muslims), and not Uighurs.

From Stratfor,

The third attack on a railway station in just over two months raises new questions about the potential spread of Islamist militancy in China. The May 6 attack in Guangzhou, the capital of the southeastern province of Guangdong, was preceded by an April 30 attack in Urumqi, the capital of the western Uighur Xinjiang Autonomous Region, and a March 1 attack in Kunming, the capital of the southern Yunnan province. The Chinese government linked the first two attacks to alleged Uighur terrorists, but in Kunming and Guangzhou, there are signs that suggest radicalism may spread into the ethnically Han Muslim Hui population, marking a major change in China's internal security dynamic.Analysis

Reports surrounding the May 6 attack remain fragmentary, but according to Chinese state and social media, between one and four assailants wearing white clothes and white hats and wielding "long knives" attacked people outside the train station at around 11:30 a.m., injuring at least six. Police shot one suspect, who is currently hospitalized. State media have yet to attribute the attack to responsible party, but if the attackers dressed in white attire as reports claim, they may belong to the Hui minority. Members of this community commonly wear white headdresses; on contrast, Uighurs typically wear multi-colored, ornamented hats.




Read more: China: Radicalism Could Spread After Another Railway Attack | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Just something to consider. A broader conflict between China and its Muslim population, as opposed to one ethnic group specifically, could shake things up.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> I have seen at least one report that suggests that the attackers
> may have been Hui (ethnic Han Muslims), and not Uighurs. ... Just
> something to consider. A broader conflict between China and its
> Muslim population, as opposed to one ethnic group specifically,
> could shake things up.

This actually wouldn't be so suprising. China has over 100,000 "mass
incidents" (i.e., demonstrations and riots) each year, so it wouldn't
be a surprise if one crossed over into terrorism.

Uke - someone who liked the idea of being part of the Polish-Lithuanian Empire, is either Catholic or is very tolerant of Catholics, and looks West.

Rus - someone who fought said Empire, adores The Eastern Church and looks East.

*** 8-May-14 World View -- China rams Vietnamese ships in the South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China rams Vietnamese ships in the South China Sea
• Putin 'withdraws' Russian troops, and calls off Sunday's east Ukraine referendum
• Vladimir Putin caught in a lie about the Crimean referendum

****
**** China rams Vietnamese ships in the South China Sea
****


Chinese ship sprays water cannons at smaller Vietnamese ship over the weekend

Eight Vietnamese boats have been "rammed, hit or sprayed with
high-pressure hoses [by Chinese boats] ... damaging Vietnamese vessels
and injuring their crew members" since Saturday, according to
Vietnamese officials. The Vietnamese ships were attempting a blockade
to prevent China from deploying a mobile drilling rig to search for
oil and gas in regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, and
which Vietnam claims as part of its exclusive economic zone in the
South China Sea.

China has been adopting a "Lebensraum" policy of claiming all of the
South China Sea as its sovereign territory, including regions that
have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and
the Philippines, often for centuries. According to China, these
countries have no rights to anything outside their 12-mile territorial
waters, while China has the right to annex everything in sight. China
has already used its vast military power to forcibly annex territories
belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines, and has militarily
threatened islands belonging to Malaysia.

According to Vietnamese officials, "Vietnam has exercised restraint.
But if Chinese vessels continue ramming Vietnamese ships, we'll have
to act out of self-defense."

In a separate incident on Wednesday, 11 Chinese fishermen hunting sea
turtles were captured Wednesday by Philippine maritime police.
According to the Chinese, "Several armed men forced themselves onto
the boat and fired four or five shots in the air. They then took
control of the boat." But the Philippine National Police rebutted
this statement, saying that the Chinese fishermen had been caught with
800 sea turtles, which are protected under Philippine law. The
incident took place near the Spratly Islands’ Half Moon Shoal, which
the Philippines claims is within its 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

Tensions between China and other nations, particularly Japan, Vietnam
and the Philippines, in the East and South China Seas, have been
growing steadily, along with threats and confrontations. This is a
trend that seems to worsen every week, as all of these countries'
populations become increasingly nationalistic. Now we have Chinese
ships ramming Vietnamese ships, and we have Chinese warplanes and
Japanese warplanes both surveying the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Some
accident or miscalculation could lead to a larger conflict at any
time. LA Times and Thanh Nien News (Hanoi)

****
**** Putin 'withdraws' Russian troops, and calls off Sunday's east Ukraine referendum
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that Russia's
troops have withdrawn from the border with Ukraine. However, the
Pentagon says that there's been no evidence of movement in Russia's
soldiers, so apparently this was another Putin lie.

However, Putin surprised everybody on Wednesday by calling on
Ukraine's pro-Russian separatists to postpone a referendum that was
scheduled for this Sunday, May 11. The purpose of this referendum was
to duplicate the 97% Russian victory in a similar March 16 referendum
held in Crimea that Putin used as an excuse to separate Crimea from
Ukraine and annex it to Russia.

This announcement was a surprise to the West, to Ukraine's government,
and even to the pro-Russian separatists who were preparing for the
referendum. The separatists say that they're going to hold
the referendum anyway.

Possibly even more surprising, Putin announced that Ukraine's
president elections, scheduled for May 25, should go ahead. Putin had
previously opposed these elections because they would legitimize the
government in Kiev. VOA

****
**** Vladimir Putin caught in a lie about the Crimean referendum
****

It's likely that the reason that Putin called for postponing or
canceling Sunday's separatist referendum is because he decided that
the pro-Russian side was likely to lose. In fact, there have been
polls that indicate that people of eastern Ukraine dislike the Kiev
government, but still don't want to be part of Russia.

But now it's emerged that the published results of the Crimean
referendum were fraudulent. Putin had claimed that 97% of the
Crimeans had voted to separate and join Russia. It was obvious that
the 97% figure was at least an exaggeration, since no honest election
ever gets such lopsided results. But now an official Russian agency,
the Presidential Council on Civil Society and Human Rights,
accidentally posted the real figures on its web site: that only 30% of
eligible voters turned out to vote, and only 50% of those voted for
annexation. So only 15% of eligible votes (50% of 30%) voted for
annexation.

The 97% claim was the lynchpin of Putin's argument that Crimea should
be separated from Ukraine and annexed to Russia, and now that entire
justification has been invalidated. Even with the 97% figure there
never was any legitimacy for one country to annex another country's
territory, but now the entire operation is shown to be a sham.
Washington Post and Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea,
Philippines, Japan,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Crimea

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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Uke - someone who liked the idea of being part of the Polish-Lithuanian Empire, is either Catholic or is very tolerant of Catholics, and looks West.

Rus - someone who fought said Empire, adores The Eastern Church and looks East.

Polish - Lithuanian state was to my knowledge never exclusionary on a religious basis. Vilnius (Wilno) is full of beautiful Lutheran, Orthodox, Catholic, Jewish, even Muslim mosques I think (one of the Grand Dukes brought in Tatars as a palace guard).

The Lithuanians, like the (Baltic) Old Prussians, were pagans that were converted very late and kept old nature centric customs in their sheltered part of Europe. They valued learned people of any stripe and welcomed them under their protection.

When harnessed under a more logical and focused Christian ethos introduced by the Teutonic Knights (paganism, like the unfocused Dasein of nature, tended to be a bit directionless and myopic), that Baltic/ Old Prussian pagan martial spirit was a key ingredient in protecting Europe from Mongol-Tatar conquests.

The hybrid Frankish-Baltic-West Slavic Prussian society (a true seamless hybrid that has since been dispersed) was also the first to create a modern welfare state in which all classes were protected and cared for as part of the whole (Spengler's "Prussian Socialism" a la Bismarck and even Frederick the Great).

That fell apart when small minds wanted to break the bonds of that cultural covenant and bring Russian brutality into the heart of Europe. This poorly conceived false idealism wakened the chaotic and unconscious fears of the brutal and atavistic east and began a dangerously instinctive/unconscious chain reaction of collective self preservation. Small minds with little understanding of history and the feelings of the common people.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that Russia's
troops have withdrawn from the border with Ukraine. However, the
Pentagon says that there's been no evidence of movement in Russia's
soldiers, so apparently this was another Putin lie.

Or, you know, a Pentagon lie. To go with all their others. The pitiful thing is, for major troop movements, there are all sorts of means to verify who is lying. Your Pentagon, however, isn't offering any evidence... and none is being asked of them. Maybe the unmoved Russian troops have Saddam's WMD with them, too?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Vladimir Putin caught in a lie about the Crimean referendum
****

It's likely that the reason that Putin called for postponing or
canceling Sunday's separatist referendum is because he decided that
the pro-Russian side was likely to lose. In fact, there have been
polls that indicate that people of eastern Ukraine dislike the Kiev
government, but still don't want to be part of Russia.

But now it's emerged that the published results of the Crimean
referendum were fraudulent. Putin had claimed that 97% of the
Crimeans had voted to separate and join Russia. It was obvious that
the 97% figure was at least an exaggeration, since no honest election
ever gets such lopsided results. But now an official Russian agency,
the Presidential Council on Civil Society and Human Rights,
accidentally posted the real figures on its web site: that only 30% of
eligible voters turned out to vote, and only 50% of those voted for
annexation. So only 15% of eligible votes (50% of 30%) voted for
annexation.

That's also pretty pitiful. Even a cursory reading of the report to which that particular lie claims to refer is plenty enough to reveal it as lazy propaganda.

Here's a debunking with the math done for you already