Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Casting aside your usual litany of nasty, deprecating crap, it's not
even possible that the 1990s decade was a generational crisis for
Russia. It was a 4T crisis era, but there was no crisis.

Sure. Tell that to any actual student of Russian history. They overthrew their country, then their social system, then their economic system. That's almost a caricature of "Crisis" in the socio-generational sense.

To have a
generational crisis, there has to be a regeneracy event that unifies
the society and its generations behind its leader. The breakup of the
Soviet Union did not unite anyone, but instead blew everything apart,
which is the opposite of a regeneracy.

The Soviet Union isn't, and wasn't, Russia. Nor did the Soviet Union experience a Crisis era (and how could it, when it was a conglomeration of societies on different timelines which, only having been together for less than even a single cycle, hadn't ever approached anything even close to social or cultural homogeneity!).
Russia, on the other hand, did. And what's more, Russia most certainly did come out of its Crisis era very much united behind a leadership very much dedicated to a unified society having corrected the mistakes of the past and come out of the chaos of the recent-past to grow into a better future. Again, it's so archetypical 4T/1T transition that it's hard to comprehend a rational mind unable to perceive it.

What is "literally impossible" in the sense of generational theory is a turning that extend more than a generation in length. What is also "literally impossible" in generational theory is a turning, not part of the self-sustaining cycle that may or may not happen, but that would otherwise leave the cycle turning. That's not how self-sustaining cycles work. "Bloodless"* crises, on the other hand, not only fit the model -- they were even anticipated by the people who formulated the model.

-----
*Hard to really justify calling it bloodless when there were open gunbattles in the streets of Moscow and other major cities; thousands of people killed in the struggles for power; and a massive decline in population only partially linked to emigration (which, by the way, is *also* a feature of 4T eras).

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

If I don't want to look ridiculous here???? You are droll. That line
is ludicrous on so many levels.

So, in other words, if Hitler had tried to eliminate the Jews, but had
only had the good sense to keep his mouth shut about his intentions,
then it wouldn't be genocide? I don't think so.

If memory serves, it was not known until after the war that Hitler's
intention was to eliminate the Jews. It would not have made sense for
him to reveal his intentions until it was too late to stop it. So in
fact Hitler did keep his mouth shut. So by your reasoning, he didn't
commit genocide or, at worst, he only committed genocide in
retrospect, after his intentions were revealed.

Part of the tragedy of the Holocaust was that Hitler's intentions were well known by the time WW II was in full swing (earlier, he had talked about deporting the Jews). There were all kinds of stories about the horrors of the ghettos and the concentration camps and the massacres going on in the early and middle parts of the war. it was not a secret.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Part of the tragedy of the Holocaust was that Hitler's intentions were well known by the time WW II was in full swing (earlier, he had talked about deporting the Jews). There were all kinds of stories about the horrors of the ghettos and the concentration camps and the massacres going on in the early and middle parts of the war. it was not a secret.

Don't bother John with your "facts" or "historical accuracy". If he can't torture it into fitting his dogma, he'll just pretend it doesn't exist.

John,

That's stupid. It's not even consistent. So the fall of the Soviet Union was a 4T, an Unraveling, and an Awakening climax, all because it didn't have a war big enough for you to notice? Why not just acknowledge what you already did with Thailand, or with 19th century Britain for that matter, that the saeculum is not necessarily a cycle of major wars? Where does this 5T business fit in with them?

Also, aerial bombardment and chemical weapons were used frequently in the 20th century, including by Western powers, with no intention beyond driving the population into submission (usually unsuccessfully). I don't understand why you are fixated on this whole genocide thing when you can just as easily condemn them on the basis of things they are actually doing.



Unless of course you're fixated on the Hitler analogy, which is odd coming from a guy who's perfectly comfortable advocating the bombardment of other countries, and citing sources from anti-Semitic websites.



I know you think you're warning us of a (quite possible) global war, but perhaps it might be worthwhile to stop occasionally and take a look in a mirror. It takes two to tango.

*** 13-May-14 World View -- Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Will Ukraine's 'People's Republic of Donetsk' be absorbed into Russia?
• Kerry to meet with Palestinians to discuss ending aid
• Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

****
**** Will Ukraine's 'People's Republic of Donetsk' be absorbed into Russia?
****


Armed Pro-Russian activists stand guard near clear plastic ballot boxes (AFP)

The events of this weekend in Ukraine were truly amazing.

The ballot question that people in the province of Donetsk
were asked to vote on was: "Do you support the Act of State Self-rule
of the Donetsk People's Republic?" It was similar in the province
of Luhansk.

Both the BBC and Al-Jazeera covered the elections live from various
polling stations. A lot of people came out to vote, and there were
long lines at the polling stations, but that was mainly because there
were something like six polling stations for half a million people in
some cities.

Both BBC and al-Jazeera were able to predict right in the polling
station that the "Yes" votes were winning almost unanimously. How did
they know that? Well, when someone came to vote, he was handed a
sheet of paper that came out of a printer that anyone could have
easily printed. He would go to a table where he would mark his ballot
in plain sight of everyone, then he would drop the sheet of paper into
the ballot box -- a tall rectangular container made of CLEAR PLASTIC.
So when the camera was pointed at the ballot box, you could see how
the person voted, and you could see that everyone was voting "Yes."
Then there were interviews with people, typically afraid of being
identified by name, who would have liked to vote "No," but were afraid
to do so for fear of having the crap beaten out of them.

As we reported last week,
Russia's
president Vladimir Putin was caught in a lie, in the claims that 97%
of the voters in the Crimean secession voted for secession. It turns
out that these figures are fraudulent, and the actual figure is 50% of
a 30% turnout, or 15% of voters. Putin may already be perpetrating a
similar fraud in the east Ukraine referendum.

Back in the 80s, the Soviets would always brag about their election
results, where the chosen candidate was always elected by 99-100%.
These results would always be greeted with a great deal hilarity,
because we all assumed that the elections were dishonest. Well, what
was interesting this weekend was to see a real "Soviet-style election"
in action. Of course Soviet-style elections are still the norm in
Russia, which is how Putin got elected. I wonder if they use clear
plastic ballot boxes in Moscow?

So anyway, pre-referendum opinion polls in eastern Ukraine showed that
most people were really pissed off at the government in Kiev, but that
they also didn't want to be absorbed into Russia. So when they voted
"Yes" on "Do you support the Act of State Self-rule of the Donetsk
People's Republic?", they thought that they were voting to become a
self-ruling republic. But that didn't stop the referendum leaders
from immediately declaring that the people had spoken, and the people
wanted Donetsk to be absorbed into the Russia Federation, just like
Crimea.

Putin was quoted on Monday saying that Russia had no intention of
annexing Donetsk, but of course he said exactly the same thing about
Crimea just before Russia annexed it. BBC and RFERL

****
**** Kerry to meet with Palestinians to discuss ending aid
****

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas in London on Thursday, to discuss whether
or no the U.S. will continue to provide up to $500 million
in aid to Palestinians.

This meeting will come several weeks after the total collapse of the
Mideast "peace talks" that Kerry set up last year. The "peace talks"
were considered to be a joke around the Mideast, as the Israelis and
the Palestinians rarely even spoke to each other. By the end of
March, the whole thing was reduced to angry finger-pointing. It's
believed that the Kerry and the Obama administration blame Israel for
the collapse of the "peace talks," because Israel's president Benjamin
Netanyahu refused to agree to a plan where Israel would return to its
post 1948 borders.

The Palestinians have been making it clear that they're going to
go their own way now. They're applying to hundreds of United
Nations organizations as the State of Palestine, and they've
indicated their intention to go to the International Criminal
Court and charge Israel with war crimes.

But from the point of view of the United States, the most significant
change is that Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) announced it
will form a unity government with Hamas, the governing authority in
Gaza, and identified as a terrorist organization by the United States,
with a charter that includes the total destruction of Israel.

Unfortunately for Abbas, U.S. law prohibits aid to the Palestinians to
benefit Hamas, "or any entity effectively controlled by Hamas, any
power-sharing government of which Hamas is a member, or that results
from an agreement with Hamas and over which Hamas exercises undue
influence." Fatah and Hamas were at war several years ago, and
several subsequent attempts at unity have collapsed because of
hostility between the two. Presumably Kerry is going to tell Abbas on
Thursday that if he wants U.S. aid to continue to flow to the
Palestinians, then it would be a good idea for this attempt at unity
to collapse as well. But according to some news reports, there's a
chance that Abbas will tell Kerry to take his money and go home.
Reuters

****
**** Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India
****

Official results won't be published until Friday, but exit polls
indicate that that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Hindu
nationalist Narendra Modi, has won a historic victory in India's
parliamentary elections. It now looks likely that the BJP will be the
first party in 30 years to win an absolute majority in parliament.
The government Congress Party has suffered a devastating defeat,
in an election with an extremely high turnout.

Much of Modi's popularity comes from his "hope and change" promises to
improve the economy and eliminate corruption in New Delhi. But
concerns have been raised because of his avowed (Hindutva) Hindu
nationalism, he will worsen the relationship between Hindus and
Muslims and India. His rhetoric has particularly targeted Muslim
immigrants from Bangladesh, and he recently threatened that as soon as
he took office he would deport Bangladeshi immigrants,
saying, "I will send these Bangladeshis
beyond the border with their bags and baggages." Times of India and CS Monitor


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Donetsk, Crimea,
John Kerry, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Israel, Hamas,
Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, India, Bangladesh, Narendra Modi

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Kerry to meet with Palestinians to discuss ending aid
****

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas in London on Thursday, to discuss whether
or no the U.S. will continue to provide up to $500 million
in aid to Palestinians.

This meeting will come several weeks after the total collapse of the
Mideast "peace talks" that Kerry set up last year. The "peace talks"
were considered to be a joke around the Mideast, as the Israelis and
the Palestinians rarely even spoke to each other. By the end of
March, the whole thing was reduced to angry finger-pointing. It's
believed that the Kerry and the Obama administration blame Israel for
the collapse of the "peace talks," because Israel's president Benjamin
Netanyahu refused to agree to a plan where Israel would return to its
post 1948 borders.

So, Mr. haircut in search of a brain is actually wasting time talking with these wahoos. We know:
1. Israel won't go with 1948 borders because such isn't defensible. Ie. Golan heights.
2. Whoever is running the Palestinians' government will never accept 1.
3. The US is dishing out $500 million for this boondoggle? There's another reason, John that we need to blow that Mideast pop stand. $500 million will buy a shitpot of windfarms here. Eric and I would be happy with that arrangement. Fuck off the Mideast and save the Earth.

The Palestinians have been making it clear that they're going to
go their own way now. They're applying to hundreds of United
Nations organizations as the State of Palestine, and they've
indicated their intention to go to the International Criminal
Court and charge Israel with war crimes.

Maybe Putin can pick up that $500 million slack and let us get to making windfarms. We let Russia moan along with Palestine about mistreatments and let Gazprom send the $500 million so they/Putin can look good. They look good, but in reality we've pawned off a big mess to them and we can wipe that shit off our hands.

But from the point of view of the United States, the most significant
change is that Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) announced it
will form a unity government with Hamas, the governing authority in
Gaza, and identified as a terrorist organization by the United States,
with a charter that includes the total destruction of Israel.

Unfortunately for Abbas, U.S. law prohibits aid to the Palestinians to
benefit Hamas, "or any entity effectively controlled by Hamas, any
power-sharing government of which Hamas is a member, or that results
from an agreement with Hamas and over which Hamas exercises undue
influence." Fatah and Hamas were at war several years ago, and
several subsequent attempts at unity have collapsed because of
hostility between the two. Presumably Kerry is going to tell Abbas on
Thursday that if he wants U.S. aid to continue to flow to the
Palestinians, then it would be a good idea for this attempt at unity
to collapse as well. But according to some news reports, there's a
chance that Abbas will tell Kerry to take his money and go home.
Reuters

Gawd how stupid. Abbas has to be the one to decline the $????? Realy???!!!!!! Holy fuck, we're such dum dums.

* 1 dum dum award for Mr. Haircut looking for a brain , Kerry

* 1 dum dum award for the United States of America.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> Sure. Tell that to any actual student of Russian history. They
> overthrew their country, then their social system, then their
> economic system. That's almost a caricature of "Crisis" in the
> socio-generational sense.

This is a giveaway. You seem to think that something as complex as
generational theory can be resolved by someone who knows nothing about
generational theory. It's like asking someone who knows nothing about
calculus to solve a differential equation. An actual student of
Russian history may know that 1990s Russia was in some kind of crisis.
But an actual student of Russian history probably knows nothing about
system dynamics and generational theory (and obviously you don't
either), so is not able to do a generational analysis, or reach a
valid conclusion about a generational era.

I don't know what a "socio-generational" crisis is, and I won't
disagree with you that Russia had a "crisis," maybe even a
"socio-generational" crisis. But it wasn't Crisis in the sense of
generational theory. It was a "socio-generational" crisis of the kind
that typically climaxes an Awakening era, something that I call "an
Awakening era climax."

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> The Soviet Union isn't, and wasn't, Russia. Nor did the Soviet
> Union experience a Crisis era (and how could it, when it was a
> conglomeration of societies on different timelines which, only
> having been together for less than even a single cycle, hadn't
> ever approached anything even close to social or cultural
> homogeneity!).

So have you sorted out the different timelines for the different
regions? That would be an interesting piece of research.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> Russia, on the other hand, did. And what's more, Russia most
> certainly did come out of its Crisis era very much united behind a
> leadership very much dedicated to a unified society having
> corrected the mistakes of the past and come out of the chaos of
> the recent-past to grow into a better future. Again, it's so
> archetypical 4T/1T transition that it's hard to comprehend a
> rational mind unable to perceive it.

I don't recall that anyone was particularly unified behind Yeltsin.

Once again, you're confusing all the timelines. Russia TODAY is
becoming increasingly nationalistic, and TODAY is becoming
increasingly united behind Putin. But if you were right, then Russia
TODAY would be entering an Awakening era, so the opposite should be
happening.

If there were a Crisis climax in the 1990s, then Russia would have
been united AT THAT TIME behind Yeltsin, and society TODAY would be
pulling apart again, as it enters a new Awakening era. So you've got
your trend lines completely backward.

Russia is uniting today because it's heading for a major Crisis. If this
were an Awakening era for Russia, then Russia would be pulling apart.

These are the kinds of details that you don't understand, because you
know nothing about system dynamics and generational theory.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> What is "literally impossible" in the sense of generational theory
> is a turning that extend more than a generation in length. What is
> also "literally impossible" in generational theory is a turning,
> not part of the self-sustaining cycle that may or may not happen,
> but that would otherwise leave the cycle turning. That's not how
> self-sustaining cycles work. "Bloodless"* crises, on the other
> hand, not only fit the model -- they were even anticipated by the
> people who formulated the model.

Russia is in a 5th turning, so the 4th turning did not extend more
than a generation in length. You're confusing a turning or era with a
Crisis. That's why you're making so many mistakes. You should learn
more about Generational Dynamics.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> Hard to really justify calling it bloodless when there were open
> gunbattles in the streets of Moscow and other major cities;
> thousands of people killed in the struggles for power; and a
> massive decline in population only partially linked to emigration
> (which, by the way, is *also* a feature of 4T eras).

Once again, you've got it completely backwards. There were gun
battles in the streets of America during the 1960s and 70s. That
doesn't mean that America was in 4T at that time. This illustrates
how you make yet one more mistake, confusing low-level violence with
the violence of a Crisis War. By a "bloodless" climax, I'm referring
to things like the resignation of Richard Nixon, as contrasted to the
American Civil War. There was violence in both cases, but in one case
it was low-level violence, and in the other case it wasn't.

As for the population question, you're completely contradicting
yourself. You're right that population decreases can occur in 4T (and
also 5T), but you're completely confused because you're claiming that
Russia today is entering an Awakening era, in which case there should
have been something similar to America's post-war Baby Boom. So what
you've actually done is to prove that Russia is in a 4T/5T today,
since the population is still declining. You can't even figure out
what what turning you want the tooth fairy to tell you that Russia is
in today.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> Don't bother John with your "facts" or "historical accuracy". If
> he can't torture it into fitting his dogma, he'll just pretend it
> doesn't exist.

You're a total moron.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> That's stupid.

You're stupid.

I'm trying to figure out whether you or Justin is the bigger moron. I
really can't decide.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

> Part of the tragedy of the Holocaust was that Hitler's intentions
> were well known by the time WW II was in full swing (earlier, he
> had talked about deporting the Jews). There were all kinds of
> stories about the horrors of the ghettos and the concentration
> camps and the massacres going on in the early and middle parts of
> the war. it was not a secret.

I've heard a lot of stories about this over the years, but what really
sticks in my mind are the stories I heard when I was growing up in the
50s that when soldiers arrived at the camps, they were completely
shocked at what had been going on, and only then did they realize the
extent of Hitler's Final Solution.

I believe the situation is that prior to 1941, it was well known that
there was discrimination against Jews (just as there's discrimination
against Jews in many places today), and that there were concentration
camps. But it wasn't until 1941 that the "Final Solution" began, but
the public inside and outside of Germany were generally unaware of it.
It's true that some people guessed what was going on (just as
Churchill guessed initial Hitler's war plans), but I discount that
because of my own experiences. It's pretty clear what al-Assad is
doing, but he still has his sycophants and useful idiots. It's pretty
clear that China is rapidly preparing for a preemptive missile attack
on the U.S., but no one wants to even think about that. Ten years
from now, there'll be people who'll say, "Some people knew what
al-Assad and China were doing. How come no one believed them?"

And that's how I see the Hitler case. Yes, there were people who
figured out what was going on and said so, but they were disbelieved,
and probably ridiculed. It was only after the war that Hitler's
intentions were fully revealed and believed, but only retrospectively.
That's one of the reasons why generational theory works.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> Maybe Putin can pick up that $500 million slack and let us get to
> making windfarms. We let Russia moan along with Palestine about
> mistreatments and let Gazprom send the $500 million so they/Putin
> can look good. They look good, but in reality we've pawned off a
> big mess to them and we can wipe that shit off our hands.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have talked about picking up the slack, but
they've made similar promises in the past without following through.
As a general rule, only the U.S. follows through with its promises.

I'll touch a couple points just to illustrate how far you fall from facts, John. Really, your claims and assertions speak for themselves.

Russia TODAY is
becoming increasingly nationalistic, and TODAY is becoming
increasingly united behind Putin. But if you were right, then Russia
TODAY would be entering an Awakening era...

You keep using the word 'nationalistic'. I do not think it means what you think it means. Russian society today (by which we can go all the way back to the early '00s) is very conservative and monolithic. Hallmarks of the 1T era that it is. People who lived through an American 1T and know it on their own hides make this observation when given the opportunity to experience the modern Russian 1T society. Such conservatism sustains more or less ubiquitously up till the tail end of a 1T era. For Russia, that means the tiny cracks that are appearing (and you're either blind or just looking from very, very, very far away not to see them) still have a handful of years to go before they start to have unavoidable impacts. So Russia is not "going into" and Awakening for a little bit still. And why would it? The generation that never experienced the Crisis is still not even starting to graduate from school even in its leading cohorts.

That's what "Turnings drive generations, and generations drive turnings" means. And that is the key fundamental thesis of generational theory. It's a shame you so easily abandon it, while still clinging to the belief that what you are doing is substantively the same thing.

If there were a Crisis climax in the 1990s, then Russia would have
been united AT THAT TIME behind Yeltsin...

That's not how a 4T works. Society doesn't necessarily unite behind a particular person or a particular party. What it does, is end up uniting behind a particular worldview. And the Russian society that made the turn from the 90s to the 00s very much had that quality.

Russia is in a 5th turning, so the 4th turning did not extend more
than a generation in length. You're confusing a turning or era with a
Crisis. That's why you're making so many mistakes. You should learn
more about Generational Dynamics.

"Turnings drive generations, and generations drive turnings" What you describe violates the fundamental tenet of Generational theory. If your particular novelty offered a model for societies over time more enlightening or better predictive than so many shoddy war-cycle models, it might be worth studying in more depth. Generational theory is appealing not because it suits prejudices or offers convenient scapegoats, but because it works* That is, examples of societies moving in accord with the way the model indicates they would are evident all around us and over all sorts of periods of time.

...confusing low-level violence with
the violence of a Crisis War.

War cycle pap. Not worth noting.

..what
you've actually done is to prove that Russia is in a 4T/5T today,
since the population is still declining...

Except that, you know, the population decline in Russia reversed itself at the beginning of this modern 1T era. To the extent that, before the turning was even half through, Russia was experiencing population growth. Consider:


The inflection point happens right around '01/'02, and the decline halts completely a scant six years later.
This is a falsehood of yours that I have exposed more than once before. Disregarding inconvenient facts is a behavior we see distressingly often from you; it argues very strongly against the case you build overall.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

You're stupid.

I'm trying to figure out whether you or Justin is the bigger moron. I
really can't decide.

Wow. Some of the Boom really did largely stop maturing right around when they got out of diapers. Kudos to you for being such a willing archetypical example.

-----
*appears to the extent that we can trust our observations.

You're stupid.

I'm trying to figure out whether you or Justin is the bigger moron. I
really can't decide.

That's what you've got? At 70 years old? That's cute. SO uh, about this:

That's stupid. It's not even consistent. So the fall of the Soviet Union was a 4T, an Unraveling, and an Awakening climax, all because it didn't have a war big enough for you to notice? Why not just acknowledge what you already did with Thailand, or with 19th century Britain for that matter, that the saeculum is not necessarily a cycle of major wars? Where does this 5T business fit in with them?

Also, aerial bombardment and chemical weapons were used frequently in the 20th century, including by Western powers, with no intention beyond driving the population into submission (usually unsuccessfully). I don't understand why you are fixated on this whole genocide thing when you can just as easily condemn them on the basis of things they are actually doing.



Unless of course you're fixated on the Hitler analogy, which is odd coming from a guy who's perfectly comfortable advocating the bombardment of other countries, and citing sources from anti-Semitic websites.



I know you think you're warning us of a (quite possible) global war, but perhaps it might be worthwhile to stop occasionally and take a look in a mirror. It takes two to tango.

I take it you're never going to bother backing up your assertions on:

- How Awakenings minimize ethnic tensions

- Why postulating a fifth turning is necessary, when you've already admitted that not all 4T end in bloodshed

- What generation would be born in a 5T? A 4T in a five turning cycle?

- How Thailand's Crisis war was one it didn't participate in at all.

- Evidence for the Thai unrest being a split between "Thai-Thai" and "Chinese-Thai", when the leaders for the "Thai-Thai" party are themselves Chinese and there has been little to no anti-Thai-Chinese rhetoric among the redshirts.

- Why you're invoking the Holocaust on one hand while citing from "Jew Watch" on the other?

That's not how a 4T works. Society doesn't necessarily unite behind a particular person or a particular party. What it does, is end up uniting behind a particular worldview. And the Russian society that made the turn from the 90s to the 00s very much had that quality.

In this case, the view that the '90s sucked and should not be repeated.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

In this case, the view that the '90s sucked and should not be repeated.

That's part of it, but not all. Communism sucked, too. As did being disconnected from a lot of the world. And so on.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

That's part of it, but not all. Communism sucked, too. As did being disconnected from a lot of the world. And so on.

Yeah, OTOH, I can't help but note a little bit of nostalgia for the Soviet Union, if not the communist system per se.

Xenakis is an ideologue who cannot accept that the Romanovs will never return to Russia. Much like the KMT will probably never return to china. If Russia is so anti-Semitic, then why is there no corresponding anti-Semitic propaganda campaign in Russia. As far as I know communist countries don't hold elections yet there was an election in Russia in 2012 and a legislative election in 2013. We know china tends toward anti-Japanese and anti-Vietnamese sentiment, yet there is no anti-American propaganda campaign by Chinese media or informal government inferences toward the populace. There was massive anti-Semitic propaganda campaigns and actions in Germany in the 1930's and massive anti-western propaganda campaigns and actions in japan in the same period. However there is no such corresponding actions in Russia and china at present. However there is such propaganda campaigns in the Islamic world. Face it the Muslims will probably be the west's main enemy if there is a major war within the next 10 years. Finally according to your theory major wars can't last more than 5 or 6 years or so, and once they run their course that particular society cant have another major war for about 50 years after the cessation of hostilities, yet there are numerous examples of major wars that would qualify as "total wars" for the societies involved that lasted 20 to 30 years or more, and there are numerous examples from history of these same societies entering into large scale wars or campaigns designed to completely conquer or subdue an opponent within one or two generations of the previous major war.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Yeah, OTOH, I can't help but note a little bit of nostalgia for the Soviet Union, if not the communist system per se.

It's a weird kind of nostalgia. More for a past when life was simple and carefree (you know, back when us grownups were kids). Everyone's got it, and very rarely does the golden hue survive a real thorough examination of the details of the fondly-recalled bygone days. No different here.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

It's a weird kind of nostalgia. More for a past when life was simple and carefree (you know, back when us grownups were kids). Everyone's got it, and very rarely does the golden hue survive a real thorough examination of the details of the fondly-recalled bygone days. No different here.

You've described all nostalgia.

It's interesting watching the "intellectual" contortions of Xenakis. Russia is sure to invade Ukraine because Putin is Hitler and Obama is Chamberlain / Putin won't invade because he's weak and afraid of repercussions, <insert person here> is an anologue / sycophant of Hitler / Here's a quote from "Jew Watch", The fall of the USSR was an Unraveling event / Awakening climax in a 4T, WWII and the end of the absolute monarchy weren't genocidal enough to be a 4T so their Crisis was probably a war that occurred somewhere else that they didn't participate in, etc.



I will be interesting to see how he describes the fracturing of the Putin consensus in the not too distant future, perhaps around the 2018 elections. Probably going to be baying for us to try and kick them while they're "down".



Pretty sad. I hope he's a decent programmer, at least.

Oh, one more thing:

The thing that identifies the Russian 1T for me the most is that in the wake of a (one saeculum long) collapse of the political order under the idealistic leadership of the first leader born after the founding of the state, the resulting reconsolidation was and is being built in a remarkable idealogical vacuum. While Dugin's Eurasianism might be getting more and more state backing (might), the government still manages to house the likes of Medvedev and Sechin without apparent contradiction. It will be interesting to see how the pressures of this confrontation, assuming it continues, affect that coalition. It might just be the catalyst for the next 2T.

*** 14-May-14 World View -- Muslim world split by Boko Haram abductions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Muslim world split by Boko Haram abductions
• Russia bans U.S. from International Space Station
• Syria mediator Lakhdar Brahimi resigns in disgust

****
**** Muslim world split by Boko Haram abductions
****


Both jihadists and ordinary Muslims are condemning Boko Haram for the mass abduction of young schoolgirls

It's a common Western complaint of Islam that Muslim officials and
clerics rarely condemn the acts of Islamist terrorists, or that any
such condemnations are rarely as aggressive as a Christian cleric
condemnation of a terrorist act by a Christian.

There have been similar criticisms about the Muslim reaction to the
Boko Haram abduction of over 200 young school girls. Within Nigeria
itself, there is bitter criticism that the politicians and the army
did nothing for weeks, and that Goodluck Jonathan, was even seen
dancing the day after the attack.

However, as the worldwide public has become aware of this terrorist
act, it's caused a fierce debate with the Muslim community -- both
among ordinary Muslims and among jihadists.

One Muslim, Sydney Casely-Hayford in Ghana, says that Boko Haram
reflects flaws in Islam. He argues that the "continuous silence" of
Muslim clerics is an indication that Boko Haram is subtly accepted:

<QUOTE>"I have not heard so far one single high ranking,
respected Muslim cleric [in Ghana] stand up and say [the
activities of Boko Haram] is totally non-Muslim activity; this is
not what Islam is all about. ...

You [Islamic Leaders] need to hold a big stage and say so clearly
so that we all understand that you are against what is going
on."<END QUOTE>

In response, the Coalition of Concerned Muslims says that the
accusation of "subtle acceptance" is an absurd and blatant lie, as
numerous comments by Muslim Clerics and Muslims in general have
been published:

<QUOTE>His assertion that the ‘Boko Haram’ projects the
weakness of Islam as a religion is devoid of logic. It is sad and
strange that he has chosen to use the actions of ‘Boko Haram’ as a
yardstick in measuring the strength or otherwise weakness of
Islam. It is intellectual dishonesty to judge Islam by way of the
behavior of a few deviant followers.

A majority of Muslims have conducted themselves well wherever they
are located. Under no circumstance should the actions of a few
deviant folks be used to describe Islam but rather it is sound and
logical to use the actions of the majority of Muslims. Does he not
see that the world would be in chaos if Muslims throughout the
world were to unite upon violence and aggression? Would it be fair
to say the Catholic Church projects the weakness/flaws in
Christianity because its priests abuse children? Or the inhumane
actions of the Lord’s resistance Army in Uganda show that
Christianity has flaws? We Muslims have been thought to be just in
our dealings and analysis and so we do not draw such flimsy
conclusions as done by Mr. Casely Hayford."<END QUOTE>

With ordinary Muslims reacting angrily to the Boko Haram abductions,
it's perhaps surprising that even jihadists are shocked by the
appalling and repulsive nature of the attack. One jihadist was most
fearful of revenge attacks, and gave a very interesting historical
analysis:

<QUOTE>"Today, there are different sentiments, as the peoples
of the [Islamic] nation hear from the channels news that we never
hoped to hear – namely, the kidnapping of Muslim and non-Muslim
girls and your announcement that you intend to sell them as
slaves.

This matter, if you proceed with it, will become a dangerous
precedent and will bring about grave calamities such as the nation
of Islam has never heard of for centuries. Your announcement of
'imprisoning' hundreds of girls will not benefit Islam and the
Muslims in any manner. On the contrary, it will reflect tragically
not only on their image but also on whatever similar reactions the
enemies of Islam will carry out. The [Islamic] nation has enough
tragedies as it is.

Brothers in [Boko Haram]: if you do this, and sell the girls as
prisoners, can you guarantee to your wives, your daughters, your
sisters, and your Muslim relatives here and there that the enemies
will [not] commit rape against them and will not defile their
honor and modesty?

Do not open the gates of evil, have mercy on your Muslim sisters,
and protect your religion's reputation.

Know that not everything that is permitted in Islam is proper to
do at all times and in any manner without considering its
advantages and disadvantages.

Know that imprisonment and enslavement resulting from war between
Muslims and infidels are part of reciprocity, and that this was
the norm among peoples in ancient times. Today, however, as the
act of enslavement between the nations of the world has ceased to
exist, and the exchange of prisoners has become the custom, we as
Muslims should not initiate this toward our enemy, since it has
grave repercussions. Preventing harm takes precedence over making
gains, according to famous jurisprudential principle. We do not
know what advantage for Islam and the Muslims will be gained if
you do this...

We appeal to you: Release the girls and do not continue their
imprisonment and enslavement. The Muslims today are suffering from
enough oppression; do not bring any harm on their honor
[i.e. their women]."<END QUOTE>

Not all jihadists were convinced, however. One responded: "On the
contrary, [we should] imprison [as much as we can]. Ripping out the
hearts of the infidels who have no morals in war is a legitimate
administration of justice. As a Muslim, I think that the brothers, the
mujahideen in Nigeria, did a good thing. I pray to the great Allah to
give them victory and power throughout the land." Citi-Fm (Ghana) and Ghana Web and Memri

****
**** Russia bans U.S. from International Space Station
****

In retaliation for American sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine
situation, Russia's deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin announced on
Tuesday a series of sanctions against the U.S.:

• Russia will ban the U.S. from using the International Space
  Station after 2020, though Russia may continue using it. According to
  Rogozin, "The Russian segment can exist independently from the
  American one. The US one cannot."
  
• Russia will suspend the operation of GPS satellite navigation
  system sites on its territory.
  
• Russia will no longer permit Russian engines in Atlas 5
  rockets used to launch military satellites.

Moscow Times and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Syria mediator Lakhdar Brahimi resigns in disgust
****

When the Syria war began in 2012, the Arab League and the United
Nations appointed former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan as a
special envoy to bring peace to Syria. Annan formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan'
which
said absolutely nothing, and so was not vetoed Russia in the
U.N. Security Council.

By August 2012, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has made a fool of
Annan enough times that Annan resigned, and he was replaced by 78 year
old Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi. I had noticed a difference in
tone between the two: whereas Annan sounded pathetic and dishonest,
Brahimi sounded realistic and truthful.

Brahimi was congratulated on a couple of occasions, when he got both
sides, the al-Assad government and the opposition rebels, to
participate in a peace conference in Geneva, once in 2013, and once in
February of this year. Syria had previously agreed to discuss a
"transitional government body," which meant that either al-Assad would
step down or at least that the opposition would have a place in the
government. The regime absolutely refused to even put that subject on
the meeting agenda. The "peace talks" collapsed once and for all,
and Brahimi clearly blamed the Syrian
regime, and apologized to the Syrian people. The regime was furious at
Brahimi after that, and considered him to be biased.

And why should al-Assad step down? Why should he compromise
on anything?

• The Shia/Alawite regime is being provided with enormous
  supplies of heavy weapons from Russia, which it can use to conduct its
  genocidal policies against its Sunni Muslim opponents.
  
• The regime has used sarin gas on its own population, with
  impunity.
  
• The regime continues to use chemical weapons. Regime helicopters
  drop huge barrel bombs onto civilian neighborhoods. The barrel bombs
  contain explosives, screws, nails and other shrapnel, plus canisters
  of chlorine and ammonia. When chlorine is inhaled, it reacts with the
  moisture in the lungs, turning into hydrochloric acid that literally
  burns the target to death from the inside out.
  
• Officials in the al-Assad regime has used electrocution,
  eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of
  thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and
  does with complete impunity, and in fact with encouragement and
  support from Russia and Iran.
  
• The regime does all of this with impunity. In fact, the regime,
  along with Russia's president Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly
  humiliated and made fools of John Kerry and Barack Obama.
  
• The regime has help from Iran's Republican Guard units,
  and from Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorists.
  
• The regime has won a number of military victories recently, and is
  gaining ground on the opposition.
  
• The regime is going to hold presidential elections in June. These
  elections will be about as honest as a Soviet election, or the
  farcical east Ukraine referendum that I reported on yesterday.
  Al-Assad will be certain to win,
  and there will be no chance that any Brahimi peace plan will
  work.

So it's absurd to believe that al-Assad would ever compromise on
anything.

Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi have been useful idiots for the Assad
regime by providing cover for him to continue his war criminal acts on
civilian Sunnis, and cover for the Russians and Iranians to make
sanctimonious statements while they support al-Assad's bloody
slaughter.

It's worth remembering again, as I wrote in 2011 (see "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
), Russia
adopted a policy of using the United Nations Security Council to
cripple American and Western foreign policy. Putin has been
incredibly successful with this policy, and has crippled American and
Western policy almost completely, most recently in Ukraine.

So Lakhdar Brahimi, now 80 years old, stepped down on Tuesday, and
apologized to the Syrian people once more:

<QUOTE>"It's not very pleasant for me. It's very sad that I
leave this position and leave Syria behind in such a bad
state."<END QUOTE>

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon promised to appoint a new envoy, but
I doubt that there's any hurry. al-Jazeera and BBC



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, Ghana,
Russia, International Space Station, Dmitry Rogozin,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Lakhdar Brahimi, Vladimir Putin,
John Kerry, Kofi Annan, Ban Ki-moon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Xenakis implies that the Muslims can ultimately be reasoned with and are not trying to conquer the west, but at the same time claims that Russia or China want to destroy the west but that the Islamists don't? Last time I checked it was Islamists who carried out 9/11. A major war in the near future would be a sequel to the war on terror. The reason Russia and China Are gaining influence in the middle east is that they are willing to help the more secular leaders in that region. The US should strive to destroy Islamists wherever they are found, not coddle them. Xenakis refuses to accept that changed geopolitical environment since the time of his own coming of age. Given that world war II can be called the "fascism crisis, Xenakis ignores the looming "Islamism crisis" and postulates an entirely imaginary "Communism crisis".

Originally Posted by Justin '77

It's a weird kind of nostalgia. More for a past when life was simple and carefree (you know, back when us grownups were kids). Everyone's got it, and very rarely does the golden hue survive a real thorough examination of the details of the fondly-recalled bygone days. No different here.

Ahhh nostalgia.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Xenakis implies that the Muslims can ultimately be reasoned with and are not trying to conquer the west, but at the same time claims that Russia or China want to destroy the west but that the Islamists don't? Last time I checked it was Islamists who carried out 9/11. A major war in the near future would be a sequel to the war on terror. The reason Russia and China Are gaining influence in the middle east is that they are willing to help the more secular leaders in that region. The US should strive to destroy Islamists wherever they are found, not coddle them. Xenakis refuses to accept that changed geopolitical environment since the time of his own coming of age. Given that world war II can be called the "fascism crisis, Xenakis ignores the looming "Islamism crisis" and postulates an entirely imaginary "Communism crisis".

It's a Khanism Crisis. The Khans fight amongst themselves but all of them hate the West. The more minor Khans are the mullahs. The more major ones are the dictators of the SCO nation states. But ultimately, they are a band of Khans who have the same goal.

*** 15-May-14 World View -- Thousands of violent Vietnamese protesters torch Chinese businesses

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In a new escalation, China builds airstrip on Philippines reef
• Thousands of violent Vietnamese protesters torch Chinese businesses
• Cyberwar between China and Vietnam may be breaking out

****
**** In a new escalation, China builds airstrip on Philippines reef
****


Anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam (AFP)

China appears to be building an airstrip on the Mabini Reef, a region
in the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines as part of its
exclusive economic zone. This is the next step in China's
"salami-slicing strategy" where it's militarily annexing regions in
the South China Sea that have historically belonged to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, often for centuries.
China has indicated that it intends to annex the entire South China
Sea, and Chinese media indicates that the purpose of the
salami-slicing strategy is to annex the other countries' one small
piece at a time, so that the U.S. will not be provoked into
intervening. The Philippines government has protested the annexation
of Philippines territory, but China's foreign minister scoffed
at the protest, saying,

<QUOTE>"Whatever construction China carries out on the reef
is a matter entirely within the scope of China's sovereignty. I
don't know what particular intentions the Philippines has in
caring so much about this."<END QUOTE>

GMA News (Philippines) and Interaksyon

****
**** Thousands of violent Vietnamese protesters torch Chinese businesses
****

Thousands anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam, furious over China's
installation of an oil rig in waters in the South China Sea
historically claimed by Vietnam, turned violent and torched a number
of factories in a southern Vietnam industrial park. It was Chinese
factories that were the nominal targets, but the angry mob also
attacked properties owned Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan.

The protests followed last week's major naval confrontation between
China and Vietnam. Vietnam sent a flotilla of about 30 ships to
blockade a mobile rig that China was installing in waters within
Vietnam's exclusive economic zone. China responded by sending 60
ships to break the blockade. Vietnam has released video of Chinese
ships ramming the Vietnamese ships and spraying them with water
cannons. ( "8-May-14 World View -- China rams Vietnamese ships in the South China Sea"
)

The Vietnamese protests earlier this week were non-violent, but
violence was triggered when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs was
"requiring" Vietnam to concede its rights:

<QUOTE>"The Xisha (Paracel) Islands are China's inherent
territory. The Chinese company's normal operations fall within
China's sovereignty. China ... has required the Vietnamese side to
take all necessary measures to protect the safety and lawful
rights of Chinese citizens and institutions in
Vietnam."<END QUOTE>

The Vietnamese government has forbidden anti-Chinese protests in the
past, for fear of antagonizing the Chinese. These growing protests
are apparently approved by the government, and therefore represent a
major policy change by the government. It seems likely that the
Vietnamese are preparing for war with China, especially if China keeps
annexing Vietnamese territory. Vietnam won a brief war with China in
1979. CNN and Vietnam Net and Xinhua

****
**** Cyberwar between China and Vietnam may be breaking out
****

After last week's naval confrontation between China and Vietnam, some
news reports indicated that Vietnamese hackers were conducting DDoS
(distributed denial of service) attacks on a few Chinese web site.
Vietnamese officials warned Vietnamese hackers to stop, because China,
who have teams of hackers attacking the United States, would almost
certain target Vietnamese sites in revenge. That's exactly what
appears to have happened, as 102 Vietnamese web sites, most personal
and small businesses, have now been attacked by Chinese hackers. So
we'll have to see if this thing spirals into a cyberwar, or if it
peters out. Vietnam Net and Thanh Nien News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Philippines, Mabini Reef,
Vietnam

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 16-May-14 World View -- China blames U.S. as anti-China violence grows in Vietnam

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China blames U.S. as anti-China violence grows in Vietnam
• U.S. asks Vietnam to permit additional Navy ship visits
• Japan moves toward reinterpreting its pacifist constitution
• Palestinian commemorate founding of Israel as 'Nakba Day'
• Lebanon accused of discriminating against Palestinians from Syria

****
**** China blames U.S. as anti-China violence grows in Vietnam
****


Martin Dempsey (left) watches as Fang Fenghui lectures him at the Pentagon on Thursday

On Thursday, a mob of a thousand Vietnamese protesters stormed a
Taiwanese steel mill in Vietnam, hunted down Chinese workers, killing
one, and torched the complex. Taiwanese companies, many of which
employ Chinese nationals, have borne the brunt of Vietnam's anti-China
protests and violence. The protesters are furious over China's
installation of an oil rig in waters in the South China Sea
historically claimed by Vietnam.

Also on Thursday, China's top military leader, the head of the
People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Fang Fenghui, was in
Washington, meeting at the Pentagon with U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman
General Martin Dempsey. At the joint press conference, Fang blamed
President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia, saying that Vietnam, the
Philippines and Japan had seized on it to cause trouble in the South
and East China seas. (This is China's standard message. All of Asia
could live in peace and harmony, as long as the U.S. and all the Asian
countries are docile and obedient to the commands issued by China.)

As for the oil rig, Fang made it clear that China would make
no concessions at all:

<QUOTE>"I think it’s quite clear ... who is conducting normal
activity and who is disrupting it. ...

Territory which has passed down by our ancestors into the hands of
our generation – we cannot afford to lose an inch."<END QUOTE>

He added that China does not seek conflict, but is not afraid of it.
War between Vietnam and China has never been closer. AP and Reuters

****
**** U.S. asks Vietnam to permit additional Navy ship visits
****

With tensions growing sharply between Vietnam and China, the
U.S. Navy on Thursday to permit the Seventh Fleet to have
additional U.S. port calls. Currently, Vietnam limits U.S.
port calls for one visit of up to three ships each year,
to avoid antagonizing China. But now that Vietnam has
reversed policy and is willing to antagonize China by permitting
peaceful anti-China protests, it's thought that Vietnam may
make a similar change of policy with respect to U.S. naval port
calls.

Because of China's increasingly offensive military activity in the
South China Sea, Vietnam has felt it's had no choice but to develop
closer military relations with the U.S., India and Russia. Reuters

****
**** Japan moves toward reinterpreting its pacifist constitution
****

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially announced Thursday the
intention to reinterpret its pacifist constitution to permit using the
armed forces for "collective self-defense." I discussed this issue in
detail recently in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.

This reinterpretation of the constitution will permit the armed forces
to use the military to defend allies, particularly the United States,
if the ally is being attack but Japan is not. It will also permit the
Japan to rescue Japanese civilians in remote locations. In his
announcement, Abe alluded to China when he mentioned as an example a
case in which an armed group disguised as fishermen land on the
country’s remote islands. Many Japanese oppose the reinterpretation
of the constitution, fearing that it's the first step on a slippery
slope to war. Japan News

****
**** Palestinian commemorate founding of Israel as 'Nakba Day'
****

Palestinians on Thursday commemorated the 66th anniversary of the
founding of Israel on May 15, 1948, as "the Nakba" or "the
catastrophe." Palestinians remember May 15 as the day in which
Palestinians were expelled from Palestine, as the region fell into a
bloody war between Arabs and Jews. According to one Palestinian
official, "There is no backing out from the right of the refugees to
return, for the Palestinian revolution was launched in 1965 for the
implementation of this right and tens of thousands of martyrs and
hundreds of thousands of wounded have fallen for this cause."
Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Lebanon accused of discriminating against Palestinians from Syria
****

Palestinians are accusing Lebanon of implementing new regulations on
the border with Syria that are indiscriminately harming Palestinians.
The new regulations were triggered by the arrest last week of 49
Syrians and Palestinians previously living in Syria on suspicion of
possessing forged documents. However, the new regulations are even
forcing Palestinian families to split up when they're faced with a
medical emergency. Like Israel, Lebanon has been the target of
terrorist attacks by jihadists, and is implementing new regulations
with the intention of preventing new terrorist attacks. Daily Star (Beirut)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Martin Dempsey, China, Fang Fenghui,
People's Liberation Army, PLA, Vietnam, Seventh Fleet,
Japan, Shinzo Abe, Collective self-defense,
Israel, Palestine, the Nakba, Lebanon, Syria

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

It occurs to me that Japan's reinterpretation may include other Asian countries. As a prelude to a Japanese sphere of influence.