The US nuclear arsenal is currently 10 times larger than china's in total warheads and about 5 to 6 times larger in deployed warheads. The US SLBM missile count is currently about twice as large as Russia's.Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84
Whew, from last April:
Nationalist politicians like Narendra Modi and Toru Hashimoto will gain power in the next couple of election cycles.
17-May-14 World View -- Serious human rights problems in eastern Ukraine and Crimea
*** 17-May-14 World View -- Serious human rights problems arise in eastern Ukraine and Crimea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Terrorist attack in Nairobi, Kenya, causes mass evacuations
- Serious human rights problems arise in eastern Ukraine and Crimea
****
**** Terrorist attack in Nairobi, Kenya, causes mass evacuations
****
Aftermath of twin bombings in Nairobi on Friday (EPA)
Kenyan officials were furious on Wednesday, after Britain, the U.S.,
France and Australia issued warnings about travel to Kenya, based on
intelligence about an imminent terrorist attack. Hundreds of tourists
responded to the warnings by checking out of hotels, prompting Kenya
officials to say that the alerts were "unfriendly," would increase
panic, and play into the hands of the terrorists.
That was Wednesday. On Friday, while Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta
was giving his nationally televised state of the nation speech, at
least 10 people were killed and dozens injured in a twin bombing in a
market in Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya. The bombing occurred at
Gikomba Market, one of the biggest second-hand clothes markets in east
and central Africa. It's assumed that the perpetrators are the
Somalia-based al-Qaeda linked terror group al-Shabaab, which has been
responsible for a number of terror attacks, including the horrific
3-day attack on Nairobi's upscale Westlake Mall, killing dozens and
wounding hundreds. (See "23-Sep-13 World View -- Minnesota link to Kenya shopping mall attack raises U.S. fears"
)
Britain's Foreign Office is now warning of a continued "high threat"
from terrorists. Some tour operators have cancelled all flights to
Mombasa until October, and some 400 tourists already there will be
flown back. BBC
and Daily Mail (London)
****
**** Serious human rights problems arise in eastern Ukraine and Crimea
****
A report by the United Nations finds that life is becoming
increasingly chaotic in Crimea, which has been annexed by
the Russian Federation, and eastern Ukraine, which is
under threat from Russian troops. According to the report:
- Armed groups continue to illegally seize and occupy public
and administrative buildings in cities and towns of the eastern
regions, and proclaim "self-declared regions." Leaders and members
of these armed groups commit an increasing number of human rights
abuses, such as abductions, harassment, unlawful detentions, in
particular of journalists . This is leading to a breakdown in law
and order and a climate of intimidation and harassment.- In Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia, there is increasing
harassment directed at the Tatar ethnic group, and other residents who
did not support the fraudulent March 16 referendum that led to the
annexation.- Peaceful demonstrations often turn suddenly violent, increasingly
leading to numerous deaths and injuries. The police are unable to
guarantee the security of participants, and to ensure law and
order.- Journalists in eastern Ukraine are under particular attack, and
the increasing prevalence of hate speech is further fuelling tensions.
Both these factors are deepening divisions between communities and
exacerbating the crisis.
However, Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, who is one of east
Ukraine's largest employers, is using patrols of steelworkers in his
employ to try to restore order in some cities. Akhmetov is joining
with other groups to insist that eastern Ukraine remain united with
the rest of Ukraine. United Nations
and Washington Post
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Nairobi, Uhuru Kenyatta,
Gikomba Market, Westgate Mall,
Ukraine, Crimea, Russian Federation, Tatars,
Rinat Akhmetov
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Your population graph is completely irrelevant for several reasons:
- Your graph is meaningless, but if it meant anything, it would mean
that Russia's "baby boom" began in 2010, which would be the end
of its 4T, not the 1990s as you claim.- An "inflection point" is not a baby boom. Why don't you go to the
3rd or 4th derivative to see if that proves anything?- The fact that population stopped falling is not the same as a baby
boom.- As you pointed out, Russia is on multiple timelines, so you'd have
to distinguish between different regions.- Generally speaking, Sunni Muslims have a much higher birth rate
(2-3 times as high) throughout the world than Christians. So I'd want
to know how much of Russia's population growth is Caucasian Muslims vs
Christian ethnic Russians. Maybe the North Caucasian population is
rising very fast, and ethnic Russian population is not, or is even
still falling.- A lot of Russia's population increase is caused by
immigration.
So, once again, you really don't have the vaguest idea what you're
talking about. You quote some vague stuff about inflection points,
slowing population declines, etc., and try to relate it to turnings
in a way that's simply a figment of your imagination.
You say that "generational theory works"? What version of
generational theory are you talking about? The only version that
works is Generational Dynamics. In the past ten years, I've posted
thousands of articles with hundreds of predictions, all of which have
come true or are trending true. I've made specific predictions where
I was right and the rest of the world was wrong.
In 2005, I posted a challenge that there is no analyst, politician or
web site with a better predictive success than
www.GenerationalDynamics.com. I've repeated that challenge many, many
times since then, and a few people tried to meet the challenge, but no
one succeeded. The reason that so many people read my World View
column, and that a number of people have written to say that they make
sure to read it first thing in the morning, is that it's always right.
So I know that Generational Dynamics works, because I've proven it
over the last 11 years.
So you say "generational theory works"? Fine. Please name a few
specific predictions from the last few years that prove that
"generational theory works," not including Generational Dynamics
predictions. Let's see if you can back up your hot air. I'm pretty
certain you can't.
<QUOTE=Justin '77;502937>
> Don't bother John with your "facts" or "historical accuracy". If
> he can't torture it into fitting his dogma, he'll just pretend it
> doesn't exist.[/quote]
You're still a total moron.
After a crisis war, survivors who had lived through its horrors are
determined to never let it happen again, so xenophobia and ethnic
tensions are played down or sublimated during the Recovery and
Awakening eras. With respect to Thailand, no one (except me) talks
about ethnic tensions. Instead, they just talk about Thaksin, as if
getting rid of Thaksin would solve all the problems.
When the fourth turning goes for 20 years without a generational
Crisis, then there's a whole new generation that's grown up, so it has
to be another turning, the 5th turning. As I said, it's not rocket
science. The 5th turning has its own mood and behaviorial
characteristics that in some ways are similar in other ways are
different from the 4th turning.
Are you asking me for a name? I've never named it, but based on what I've
seen, I would pick a name like the "terror generation."
What does "participate in" mean? Did Switzerland participate in WW
II? Did Iceland? Did Kansas? Once you define what "participate in"
means, then you'll have your answer.
See my answer to minizing ethnic tensions above.
I don't understand this question.
The reason that I call you and Justin morons is not because you don't
know "stuff." Everyone knows stuff, although on the day you were
born, I knew more stuff than you know today.
The reason I call you a moron is because you have no respect for your
elders and no respect for people who are a lot smarter and more
knowledgeable than you are.
I'll give one example. This is a really trivial example, but it well
illustrates the whole problem.
A few days ago, you wrote: "Besides, the Crisis for Thailand last time
was WWII." Apparently you think that I'm so stupid that I never even
considered this possibility. It apparently never occurred to you that
since I've been studying history since high school in the 50s, and
because I've been intensely working on Generational Dynamics for over
11 years -- it never occurred to you that I might actually know what
I'm talking about.
If you had wanted to show respect for someone who's older and smarter
than you, then you might at least have rephrased the statement as a
question. ("Why isn't WW II Thailand's last crisis war?") That would
at least have shown some respect and some wisdom.
You might even have taken it one step further and said to yourself,
"Gee, John must have something in mind. Why don't I do a little
research and try to figure out why he says Thailand is in an Awakening
era?" That would actually have shown some intelligence.
But you exhibited no respect for someone who's older and smarter than
you, you exhibited no wisdom in handling the situation, and you
exhibited no intelligence in analyzing the situation. All you
exhibited is stupidity. That's why I called you a moron.
Justin is the same. He posts his population map thinking that I'm so
stupid I won't even question it and find the obvious flaws in it. But
there's an even worse problem with Justin.
The back story is that I joined this forum in May 2003 with a specific
problem I was trying to resolve. At that time, I had decided that if
TFT theory is any good, then it must have predictive value, and I set
up my web site www.Generational.Dynamics.com as platform to prove or
disprove that. My objective at the time, and today, is to post
predictions based on generational theory, and see if they turn out to
be true. And they have, as I've shown many times. That's also when I
wrote my first predictive article:
** Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...10.i.may01.htm
When I joined in May 2003, the specific problem I had was trying to
figure out WW I. S&H's TFT was very clear and explicit that all
countries -- America, Britain, Europe, Russia, Japan, Australia, and
in fact the whole world -- were on a common saeculum cycle lasting 80
years or so. In May 2003, that didn't make sense to me, and I
hypothesized that WW I was an eastern European war, while WW II was a
western European war. That's the problem that I wanted to discuss in
this forum.
Well, nobody here had ever heard of such a thing, as far as I could
tell. I remember particularly being mocked and ridiculed for
suggesting that WW II was an Awakening era war for Russia, and I had
to do some research and dig up information about the revival of the
Russian Orthodox Church during WW II. During the following few weeks,
I developed the "Principle of Localization," and wrote about it in my
book.
I've referred you to the relevant sections of my book before:
** Book 1 - Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...alization1.htm
** Book I / Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...alization2.htm
So the Principle of Localization is the core advance of Generational
Dynamics over "classical" TFT theory. The Principle of Localization
makes possible the concept of multiple timelines, which is completely
rejected in classical theory. The Principle of Localization makes
generational theory valid for all places and times in history.
The debate over Russia went on in this forum for years, with many
people continuing to ridicule me for suggesting that WW II was an
Awakening war for Russia. In fact, the whole multiple timelines
question was debated for years.
But now, 11 years have passed since I introduced the Principle of
Localization, and as far as I can tell, everyone in this forum has
accepted the concept of multiple timelines, which is the core
Generational Dynamics concept.
So now we have Justin, who insists that Russia is not in the same
saeculum as America, Europe and Japan, and thereby rejects classical
TFT theory, and adopts core Generational Dynamics principles with
respect to Russia. He even points out that Russia itself is a big
country and has multiple timelines.
Justin constantly calls me names, he constantly ridicules Generational
Dynamics, he says that generational theory "works," but he is
referring to Generational Dynamics that works, the thing that he
ridicules.
The reason that he calls me names is because some part of his brain is
aware of the massive cognitive dissonance he's dealing with,
ridiculing the thing that he believes in. So he resolves it with name
calling.
The result is that he, like you, exhibits no respect for his elders,
exhibits no respect for someone who's smarter and more knowledgeable,
exhibits no wisdom in handling the situation, and exhibits no
intelligence in analyzing the situation. All that he exhibits is
stupidity. That's why I called him a moron as well.
If you want to be respected, then you have to show respect for others.
If you want to be respected, then you have to understand that you
still have a lot to learn.
With tens of thousands of regular readers, I'm quite used to dealing
with crap from all sides. My favorite has always been a couple of
guys on the Breitbart site who accused me of writing for Breitbart
because I'm a liberal spy trying to destroy the conservative movement
from the inside. I still laugh hysterically whenever I think of that.
By the way, for the record, I personally and ideologically don't give
a shit whether the Russians withdraw from the Ukraine border or not,
and I personally don't even care whether Russia is in a 4T or 1T or
2T. I'm just reporting on whatever Generational Dynamics tells me.
Despite all the crap I get from people like you and Justin, I still
offer Generational Dynamics as a public service, and I try to answer
all questions, time permitting. I think it's particularly important
for me to take the time to try to educate children such as yourself
and Justin, because, as the saying goes, "Our children are our
future."
John
A war can last for decades, but not as a generational crisis war. For
example, the Sri Lanka civil war began in 1983, but at that time it
was a non-crisis war with low level violence. It transitioned to a
generational crisis war in 2006, and reached a climax in 2009.
** While world watches Lebanon, Sri Lanka goes to war (2006)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...03.htm#e060803
** Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (2009)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...17.htm#e090517
I've looked at a number of examples, and they go as follows:
- The conflict begins as demonstrations and riots and some clashes
during the Awakening era.- During the years that follow, periods of low-level conflict
alternate with periods of peace, when a new "peace agreement" is
signed. The peace agreement breaks down, and low-level conflict
begins again.- At some point decades later, the regeneracy occurs, and the war
crosses the line from a non-crisis war to a crisis war. At this
point, the value of an individual human life drops to near-zero, and
all that matters is the survival of the society and its way of life.- Once the regeneracy occurs, the war continues to gather momentum,
and reaches a climax in a few years. At that point winners and losers
are determined, the winners write the history, and a First Turning
Recovery Era begins.
Wait, so let me understand this. You're a kid in a generation where
SAT questions have been getting easier, but SAT scores have been
falling anyway, and where most kids your age have weak reading skills,
and couldn't even pick out pick out China on a map. And yet you think
you know more than someone who's older than you are, who's been
studying history all his life, who's written thousands of articles on
history and current events on his web site for over a decade, and in
all your brilliant wisdom, you've decided that I "refuse to accept
that changed geopolitical environment since the time of [my] own
coming of age."
You're an even bigger moron than the other two.
I realize that with all the grade inflation in colleges these days,
that you can write anything, no matter how idiotic, and get an "A+" if
it's politically correct. But you would be better off learning to
respect your elders and people who are smarter and more knowledgeable
than you are, and to understand that you still have a lot to learn.
Actually the above paragraph of yours that I quoted is so garbled, I
can only guess at what some of it means. I've certainly never said
you can reason with jihadists, and I've repeatedly ridiculed attempts
by John Kerry to do exactly that.
And perhaps the jihadists would like to destroy the West, but they
don't have any such capability, beyond perpetrating terrorist attacks,
such as the attack in Kenya on Friday that I wrote about.
The difference with China is that China is developing multiple missile
systems with no other purpose than to destroy American aircraft
carriers, American cities, and American military assets. And I didn't
make this up -- Chinese media brags about it. While the jihadists can
perpetrate individual terror attacks, the Chinese are clearly
preparing for a pre-emptive war that will be an existential threat to
the U.S.
That's the difference.
And by the way, as I've been writing for years, Russia will be our
ally, as in WW II, not our enemy. That's because of a "changed
geopolitical environment," ya know.
John
I try very hard to cleave to the charitable interpretation -- that you are merely misled, confused, or at worst a deluded ideologue, John. But your behavior over the past week (or so) here, plus the fact that, confronted several times with facts contrary to the claims you are making, you ignore the facts and continue to make your claims as if they weren't proven false... makes the charitable interpretation no longer tenable.
So we are left with this: You are a liar, John. Your actions demonstrate it to be so.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc ętre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŕ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce ętre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch
"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy
"[it] is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky
There are numerous examples of wars in which nations waged total war against each other and the war lasted longer than 3 to 6 years. In some of these examples the same powers went to war again within less than 1 generation. In many cases the interwar period certainly did not last the minimum 2 to 2 1/2 generations that your theory asserts is required for another major war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Messenian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lelantine_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Messenian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Sacred_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_the_Delian_League
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helot_r...#Helot_revolts
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Peloponnesian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloponnesian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Tyrants
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrasybulus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corinthian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeotian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_of_Pherae
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of...heban_hegemony
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_of_Pherae
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_...2%80%93355_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Sacred_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rise_of_Macedon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of...nder_the_Great
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_the_Diadochi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamian_War
This continued in later periods as well:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chremonidean_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleomenean_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_...2%80%93217_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Macedonian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Macedonian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman%E2%80%93Syrian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Macedonian_War
There are analogous examples in other regions as well:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romulus_and_Remus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman-Sabine_wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman-Etruscan_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lake_Regillus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gnaeus_Manlius_Cincinnatus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mons_Algidus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnatus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Corbione
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titus_Q...linus_Barbatus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture...denae_(435_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman%E2%80%93Latin_wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Veii
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Allia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_c...of_the_Hernici
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman-Volscian_wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samnite_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...adimo_(310_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Arretium
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...adimo_(283_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Populonia
Here is a third region in the same period:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek-Punic_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dionysius_I_of_Syracuse
Later on these regions began to spillover politically and culturally:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Punic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercenary_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...sulae_(225_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Telamon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Clastidium
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaesatae
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Punic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cremona_(200_BC)
Here are some later wars:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Celtiberian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Macedonian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Punic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lusitanian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numantine_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Servile_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jugurthine_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimbrian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Servile_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_...E2%80%9388_BC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Mithridatic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulla%27s_first_civil_war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulla%27s_second_civil_war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mithridatic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sertorian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Mithridatic_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Servile_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallic_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesar%...ons_of_Britain
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesar%27s_Civil_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mutina
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberators%27_civil_war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_revolt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perusine_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_W...Roman_Republic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantabrian_Wars
Here are some even later wars:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_J...80%93Roman_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trajan%27s_Dacian_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kitos_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman-Parthian_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bar_Kokhba_revolt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Aurelius
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcomannic_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Septimius_Severus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman%E2%80%93Persian_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decius
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mediolanum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valerian_(emperor)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallienus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudius_II
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurelian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Aurelius_Probus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Satala_(298)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diocletian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_W...y_(306-324_AD)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantine_the_Great
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_C..._of_350-351_AD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gothic_War_(376-382)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Civil_War_of_394_AD
Some Medieval Examples:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militar...rusader_states
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzanti...%93Seljuq_wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genghis_Khan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol%E2%80%93Jin_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_...he_Kara-Khitai
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_...d_Eastern_Iran
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_...of_Western_Xia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baghdad_(1258)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_...e_Song_Dynasty
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Years%27_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzanti...93Ottoman_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgari...93Ottoman_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian-Ottoman_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History...n-Turkish_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_the_Roses
Some Medieval and early modern examples from a regionalized area:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desmond_Rebellions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Ye..._War_(Ireland)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Confederate_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Williamite_War_in_Ireland
Here are some more examples that are somewhat closer to modern times:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norther...n_Years%27_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years%27_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cologne_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalmar_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_...ich_Succession
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-...35%E2%80%9359)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Northern_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austro%...%E2%80%931664)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scanian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Turkish_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_...ue_of_Augsburg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_...ish_Succession
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Northern_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austro-...716%E2%80%9318
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_...ruple_Alliance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_...ish_Succession
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austro-...35%E2%80%9339)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_...ian_Succession
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Years%27_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolutionary_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleonic_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Days
http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2012/...the-stockpile/
http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com...ponsw25001.gif
(Note: This is only the actively deployed capabilities, the US and Russian arsenals include thousands more stockpiled weapons.)
China has nuclear capability, but remember that the Japanese fleet in December 1941 outnumbered the US pacific fleet by 3 to 1 in the equivalent of strategic capability, moreover the conditions of continued peacetime balance of power meant that the US would have surpassed japan in military advantage by 1943. Not only that but japan could not wage a attritional non-blitzkrieg type war against us because of our industrial advantage. In other words japan had a massive short-term advantage but an equally massive long term disadvantage. That japan went for a blitzkrieg type war campaign against the US was obvious. In today's balance of power however the US nuclear arsenal outnumbers china's by 10 to 1. Not only that but our SLBM assets in particular and a lesser extent our ICBM are pretty much on permanent readiness (3/4ths of our missile submarines are actually at sea at any given time with only 1 to 4 submarines actually being at port at any given time with about 5 of them at "hard" readiness). In long-term advantages china however is gaining on us is projected to surpass us economically and industrially within the next decade or two. Also in a similar proposed war between China and Russia, Russia as a similar advantage in nukes vis-ŕ-vis china as the US does Although china has a massive manpower advantage there on land. With regards to Russia; Russia is not our ally our relations with them have mostly been deteriorating for the past decade or so, Russia has built several new ICBM classes that are specifically designed to counter our missile shield and proposed missile shields.
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 05-20-2014 at 12:11 AM.
Lol, what a bunch of pretentious, self-indulgent drivel. Let's see what we have:
Erm, no. 2T aggravate societal divisions. That's pretty much the definition, a revolt against the dominant societal paradigm, put in place by the particpants in the last crisis. Were the Black Panthers, the Nation of Islam, the KKK, MeChA, played down or "sublimated" during the last 2T? Were ethnic and sectarian tensions played down during the English Civil War (a 2T war)? Alexander II's rule in Russia? No, of course not. Fail.After a crisis war, survivors who had lived through its horrors are
determined to never let it happen again, so xenophobia and ethnic
tensions are played down or sublimated during the Recovery and
Awakening eras. With respect to Thailand, no one (except me) talks
about ethnic tensions. Instead, they just talk about Thaksin, as if
getting rid of Thaksin would solve all the problems.
Except you haven't defined it, in terms of generational constellation or mood, except in the sense that it's what you claim happens when a "Crisis War" doesn't happen. And since you acknowledge that it is possible for countries to experience a full saeculum without fighting a Crisis War, you haven't indicated why a 5th turning is necessary to postulate at all. Let's look at S & H, whose theory you've shamelessly been claiming as your own: The 30 Years War / English Civil War were fought during a 2T, and were bloodier than any war fought until the 20th century. And yet the institutions changed not after the war, but 40 years later (give or take), in England's case relatively bloodlessly. The institutions put in place during and after the war, like the Protectorate, faded quickly. That's the whole point of why people like you are on the S & H website in the first place, because THEIR theory had a better predictive power then any of the previous attempts at "war cycles" that you seem so fixated on. And their theory has 4 turnings, shaped by and shaping 4 generations, with wars being fought in any of them. You have done nothing to explain how your postulated 5th turning fits into that, and why we should accept it.When the fourth turning goes for 20 years without a generational
Crisis, then there's a whole new generation that's grown up, so it has
to be another turning, the 5th turning. As I said, it's not rocket
science. The 5th turning has its own mood and behaviorial
characteristics that in some ways are similar in other ways are
different from the 4th turning.
WTF? I asked you how proposed 5th turning would fit into GENERATIONAL theory. What sort of generation would be formed by a 5T? How would an extra turning affect the saeculum going forward? You know, how does your idea fit into generational theory?Are you asking me for a name? I've never named it, but based on what I've
seen, I would pick a name like the "terror generation."
Jesus, I don't give a shit what you call it.
God, this is painful. Yes, Switzerland fully mobilized, Iceland was invaded and later declared itself a republic, Kansas was part of a country that mobilized and invaded two continents after being attacked.What does "participate in" mean? Did Switzerland participate in WW
II? Did Iceland? Did Kansas? Once you define what "participate in"
means, then you'll have your answer.
If you'd like to argue that the Crisis for Thailand was in the '70s and '80s, you'd do better to look at that period from the Thai Student Uprising in 1973, with the associated Peasant Revolts, and student massacres, that led to a period of unrest and alternating military dictatorships, that was finally ended by a popular military dictator (and civilian prime minister) who paved the way for lasting democracy in 1991. You could take that interpretation, but since they're basically rehashing the same debate now, which would imply that the issues weren't resolved, it makes more sense to think of it as an Awakening. Especially since thinking of it as a Crisis would require thinking of the Military Dictatorship imposed in 1932; that saw the end of the absolute monarchy, the renaming of the country, the acquisition of problematic territories, and the imposition of the central Thai culture on the rest of the nation as a homogenizing measure, as an Awakening. Which period involved top down reforms, and which one bottom-up ones? Which one involved the country coming together, and which one saw it come apart? Which one led to a static political order?
When you look the outbreak of both the Malaysan insurgency and the pro and anti Thaksin camps breaking out in the past decade, and the impending death of the King, I don't think your interpretation makes as much sense.
So, what you're saying is that you have zero evidence that the pro-Shinawatra party (who are, after all, Thai-Chinese from northern Thailand, as were most of the other founders of the party) is actually an anti-Chinese group? Got it.See my answer to minizing ethnic tensions above.
I don't how much clearer I can make it. Why are you invoking the memory of the Hitler and the Holocaust on one hand while citing from an explicitly anti-Semitic website that denies the Holocaust on the other?I don't understand this question.
As for the rest of the garbage, put a sock in it. I'm not going to rubberstamp any hateful, ignorant gibberish you happen to put out just because you're 70 years old. Your vaunted Generation Dynamics system is just S & H's theory with your own political slant. Your example concerning Thailand might be more persuasive if your own website didn't agree with me, and your newsletter citing your new opinion didn't hinge on one example of people getting their haircuts at a protest during the 2005 uprising (which, if valid, would use #OWS to claim 2011 as a 2T as well, as I pointed out above). Your bullshit about how much smarter and more knowledgeable you are than me is both childish, and ignores the repeated basic failures of knowledge (like the bit about Nigeria being a former French colony) that you have exhibited on a regular basis. Quite frankly, I have no reason, from what I've seen written on this board, to take your word for anything.
And quit yammering on about GenerationalDynamics as if you have done anything other than try and pass off S & H's work as your own, and badly at that.
But please, continue to "answer" all questions, as it were. Nothing I could say would do as much to illustrate the ignorance and hypocrisy underlining your positions as your clumsy and ill-conceived attempts to defend them. See your exchange with Alioth68 above for an excellent example of this.
EDITED For Clarity
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 05-17-2014 at 09:19 PM.
18-May-14 World View -- China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam
*** 18-May-14 World View -- China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence
- Taiwanese businesses bear the brunt of Vietnam's riots
- Generational History of Vietnam
****
**** China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence
****
Taiwan-owned furniture factory torched last week by rioters (AFP)
China has evacuated more than 3,000 Chinese nations from Vietnam as of
Saturday afternoon. The evacuations were by chartered plane and
ships, according to Chinese media. The evacuations follow a week
where thousands of anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam, furious over
China's installation of an oil rig in waters in the South China Sea
historically claimed by Vietnam, turned violent and torched a number
of factories in a southern Vietnam industrial park, killing two and
injuring hundreds. Following that, a mob of a thousand Vietnamese
protesters stormed a Taiwanese steel mill in Vietnam, hunted down
Chinese workers, killing one, and torched the complex.
China is demanding that Vietnam take tougher measures to punish
rioters. According to a Chinese official, "We are strongly
dissatisfied by the Vietnamese side failure to respond effectively to
curb an escalation."
Vietnamese officials normally don't permit anti-Chinese
demonstrations, for fear of antagonizing the Chinese. It's believed
that last week's demonstrations were approved by the government, to
show displeasure at China's actions in the South China Sea. Chinese
officials are now saying that "illegal acts" would be stopped, as they
could damage national stability. However, anti-Chinese dissident
groups have urged new demonstrations on Sunday. Xinhua and
BBC
****
**** Taiwanese businesses bear the brunt of Vietnam's riots
****
More than 100 Taiwanese companies operating in Vietnam were
affected by last week's riots. At least 11 buildings were set
on fire. Hundreds of family members of Taiwanese employees have
been evacuated, while about 70 Taiwanese staffers remain in
Vietnam to oversee the situation.
Many Vietnamese workers in Taiwan are becoming concerned that the
anti-China riots in Vietnam are going to affect them. One Vietnamese
worker in Taiwan said that she feels sorry for the Taiwanese who have
suffered losses in Vietnam. "I feel terrible and very sad because
Taiwanese people are all very friendly and nice." There are currently
over 489,000 foreign workers in Taiwan, 25.6% of whom are from
Vietnam, the second-largest source of migrant workers in Taiwan.
The actions by China to install an oil rig in waters that are in
Vietnam's exclusive economic zone is what triggered last week's riots,
but the anti-Chinese feelings in Vietnam go far deeper than that.
According to one analyst:
<QUOTE>"Riots can easily start over minor issues that then
get conflated with others. These are factory workers, not
political science or history scholars. They have 'Chinese'
overseers, they feel that these people are not nice to them and
now they - or someone like them - is invading the
country."<END QUOTE>
In other words, the riots may have been triggered by bad working
conditions in Chinese businesses as well as bad working conditions in
Vietnamese businesses. This would be an embarrassment to the
Vietnamese government. Focus Taiwan and
Focus Taiwan and BBC
****
**** Generational History of Vietnam
****
I posted this generational history of Vietnam several years ago, and
with Vietnam in the news again, now would be a good time to look at it
again.
Vietnam's last generational crisis war was the civil war of the 1960s
and 1970s. The war was not fought against the Americans, though the
Americans were there, supporting the South Vietnamese. It was fought
between the North and the South, and the Americans were irrelevant.
In fact, generational crisis wars between North and South Vietnam have
occurred regularly, every 70-90 years, since North and South Vietnam
have had different ethnic origins. North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom)
was originally populated by ethnic Chinese, while South Vietnam
(Champa Kingdom) was populated by Polynesian settlers from Indonesia
and Malaysia. These ethnic differences resulted in one crisis war
after another over the centuries, whether the Americans were there or
not.
Generational crisis wars in 1471 and 1545 finally ended the Champa
Kingdom in the south, and also drove out the Chinese Army from the
north. However, the country remained partitioned until the Tay-Son
rebellion, 1771-1790, the most celebrated military event in Vietnamese
history. In its explosive climax in 1789, the Vietnamese troops
repelled a much larger Chinese army in a brilliant battle that united
the country for the first time.
The generational awakening era that followed the Tay-Son rebellion
changed the country enormously. The 1800s were the high point of
literary culture in Vietnamese history, and, thanks to the French,
Christianity bloomed, with hundreds of thousands of Catholic
conversions from Confucianism and Buddhism. That lasted until the
next crisis war, the French conquest of Indochina in 1865-1885.
Under the French, the Catholic Church flourished, opening missions, schools and hospitals
all over the country.
Vietnam's next Awakening era featured riots and demonstrations
directed at the French colonialists, and the rise of Ho Chi Minh. Ho
took part in the founding of the French Communist Party in 1920, and
formed the Revolutionary Youth League in Vietnam in 1925. Ho led
numerous anti-colonial uprisings in the following decades, and during
WW II, Ho formed the Viet Minh political / relief organization, for
people starving to death thanks to confiscation of goods by the
occupying Japanese.
After WW II, Ho Chi Minh led the effort to drive the French from
Vietnam, and succeeded with human wave assaults against a large
French encampment at Dien Bien Phu in 1954.
With the French gone, Vietnam was once again partitioned into North
and South. Ho controlled the North, with support from the Soviet
Union and China, and over half a million Catholics migrated from the
North to the South. America feared that South Vietnam would also fall
under Communist control.
This was the time when America had fought two world wars, and was
desperately fearful of a third one on the horizon, this time with the
Communists. It was considered essential to stop Communism before it
could become too threatening, and so America endeavored to stop
Communism from spreading from North to South Vietnam. America began
providing advisors in the 1950s, growing to full-scale armed
intervention in the 1960s. The North-South crisis civil war finally
ended in 1974, with Hanoi's victory, followed by Hanoi's reign of
terror.
Today, Vietnam is well into one more generational awakening era. When
President Bush visited Vietnam in 2006, the young people of Saigon
(they don't like to call it Ho Chi Minh city) lined the streets and
cheered wildy, expressing admiration for America, and also hostility
towards their Hanoi masters.
Today, even Hanoi wants to be friends with America, to counter threats
from China in the South China Sea.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea,
Taiwan, Vietnamese Kingdom, Champa Kingdom, Tay-Son rebellion
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
19-May-14 World View - Boko Haram attacks Chinese camp as summit takes place in Paris
*** 19-May-14 World View -- Boko Haram attacks Chinese camp as summit takes place in Paris
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Boko Haram attacks Chinese camp as summit takes place in Paris
- Terrorist car bomb kills 5 in northeast Nigeria
- China imposes economic sanctions on Vietnam
****
**** Boko Haram attacks Chinese camp as summit takes place in Paris
****
Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan talks with France's president François Hollande in Paris on Saturday (Reuters)
An armed militia assumed to be Boko Hara attacked a Chinese company's
camp on Friday night in northern Cameroon, near the border with
Nigeria. One Chinese employee had two bullet wounds, and ten others
were missing, assumed to have been abducted. The armed attackers
forced their way into the camp, and after three hours of
gunfire, left the camp with the abductees and all the camp's
vehicles.
There had been an elite Cameroonian battalion guarding the Chinese
camp, but many soldiers had been transferred to Yaounde, Cameroon's
capital, for a military parade marking National Day on May 20.
The attack came as a summit meeting in Paris was convened on Saturday
of west African leaders from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Benin, and
Western leaders. On Saturday they agreed to wage "total war" on Boko
Haram, saying that the Nigerian group, which had abducted hundreds of
schoolgirls whose whereabouts are still completely unknown, had gone
from being a purely Nigerian threat to a threat to all of west Africa.
According to Chad's President Idriss Deby:
<QUOTE>"There is determination to tackle this situation head
on ... to launch a war, a total war on Boko Haram."<END QUOTE>
However, no clue was given about how this "total war" was going to be
conducted. The Nigerian army is "not organized" in a way to deal with
Boko Haram, according to Western officials. However, providing
outside military help to Nigeria a sensitive political issue, because
Nigerians consider their country able to take care of itself.
Nonetheless, France has 6,000 troops in Africa (in Mali and Central
African Republic), the U.S. is apparently helping with air searches,
and Britain and Israel are providing intelligence, in an attempt to
recover the girls.
It's also suspected, but completely unconfirmed, that Nigeria's
government is conducting secret talks with Boko Haram represents to
pay a fairly substantial ransom to get the girls back. If that turns
out to be true, then "total war" will have meant giving the terrorists
what they want. Xinhua and Reuters
****
**** Terrorist car bomb kills 5 in northeast Nigeria
****
Late Sunday, a terrorist bomb in Nigeria's northern city of Kano
killed 5 people. A car bomb was used on a busy street filled with
popular bars and restaurants. Kano is mostly inhabited by Christians.
The perpetrators are assumed to be Boko Haram. Reuters
****
**** China imposes economic sanctions on Vietnam
****
China is sending 5 additional warships to Vietnam to evacuate
thousands more citizens, and is beginning to call off some planned
"bilateral exchanges" with Vietnam, in response to last week's
anti-China riots in Vietnam that killed two Chinese and injured
hundreds. According to China's Foreign Ministry:
<QUOTE>"The violence has sabotaged the atmosphere and
conditions for communication and cooperation between China and
Vietnam."<END QUOTE>
In the past, China has threatened economic sanctions against Japan and
the Philippines, with implied additional threats of military attacks,
unless these countries are obedient to all of China's demands. China
has repeatedly said that they are going to annex regions belonging to
Japan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, often
for centuries. Last week, China indicated that it will not back off
"one inch" from its demands.
At times like this I always like to respond to argument I always hear
that such-and-such a country will not go to war with another country
because it would be "bad for business." If this were true, there
would never be any wars. In fact, the opposite is true. If two
countries have good business relationships, then those relationships
will be used as an additional weapon of war, leading to additional
nationalistic fury on all sides, rather than preventing war. People's Daily (Beijing)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Boko Haram, Nigeria,
François Hollande, Goodluck Jonathan, Cameroon,
Chad, Idriss Deby, Kano, Vietnam
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
20-May-14 World View -- Algeria closes its borders with Libya
*** 20-May-14 World View -- Algeria closes its borders with Libya as fighting mounts in Tripoli
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- U.S. charges China's People's Liberation Army with cyber espionage
- China brags about it's growing military power and influence
- China's military can now destroy every U.S. satellite
- Massive floods in Balkans uncovering landmines from 1990s war
- Algeria closes its borders with Libya as fighting mounts in Tripoli
- Thailand's army declares martial law
****
**** U.S. charges China's People's Liberation Army with cyber espionage
****
The building in Shanghai housing People's Liberation Army Unit 61398
The Dept. of Justice on Monday indicted five specific military
officers in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) for computer
hacking, economic espionage and other offenses directed at six
American victims in the U.S. nuclear power, metals and solar products
industries. According to the press release:
<QUOTE>"The indictment alleges that the defendants conspired
to hack into American entities, to maintain unauthorized access to
their computers and to steal information from those entities that
would be useful to their competitors in China, including
state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In some cases, it alleges, the
conspirators stole trade secrets that would have been particularly
beneficial to Chinese companies at the time they were stolen. In
other cases, it alleges, the conspirators also stole sensitive,
internal communications that would provide a competitor, or an
adversary in litigation, with insight into the strategy and
vulnerabilities of the American entity."<END QUOTE>
The indictment is specifically related to economic espionage,
which it distinguishes from the other, more common kind of
espionage used for "national security."
The extent of the espionage was revealed last year in a report by the
American computer security firm Mandiant, which identified a PLA "Unit
61398" in a Shanghai building guarded by PLA soldiers. ( "20-Feb-13 World View -- New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army"
) According
to the Mandiant, which refers to this unit as APT1:
<QUOTE>"Our evidence indicates that APT1 has been stealing
hundreds of terabytes of data from at least 141 organizations
across a diverse set of industries beginning as early as
2006. Remarkably, we have witnessed APT1 target dozens of
organizations simultaneously. Once the group establishes access to
a victim’s network, they continue to access it periodically over
several months or years to steal large volumes of valuable
intellectual property, including technology blueprints,
proprietary manufacturing processes, test results, business plans,
pricing documents, partnership agreements, emails and contact
lists from victim organizations’ leadership. We believe that the
extensive activity we have directly observed represents only a
small fraction of the cyber espionage that APT1 has committed.
... Since 2006 we have seen APT1 relentlessly expand its access
to new victims."<END QUOTE>
Once APT1 gains control of someone's network, it retains control in
stealth mode and downloads all the data in the network. In one case,
APT1 accessed a network for four years and ten months. In another
case, APT1 downloaded 6.5 terabytes of information in ten months.
Monday's indictment is for political purposes only. There is zero
probability that any of the people named in the indictment will be
tried in court. Dept. of Justice and LA Times
****
**** China brags about it's growing military power and influence
****
According to Global Times, which is a mouthpiece of the Chinese
Communist Party, China is rising to become the most powerful nation in
the world, and is ready to resort to "non-peaceful" measures as
necessary:
<QUOTE>"China is at a delicate point in its rising
process. On the one hand, China's growing strength empowers it to
take initiatives on the global stage, but on the other, the
uncertainty oozing from such a rise is discussed and even hyped up
by the outside world. The US, as well as China's other neighboring
countries have unprecedented ambitions to contain China's use of
growing influence.
It's a demanding and risky job to let other countries get used to
China's rise and treat China as a major power. Vietnam and the
Philippines, which haven't updated their knowledge about China,
still cherish the illusion that China can simply be forced back by
pressure.
China's interests are beyond the South China Sea. It must strike a
balance between securing its territorial waters and maintaining a
vibrant growth trend.
China faces a dilemma with its growing power. On the one hand, it
will be confronted by neighbors like Vietnam, the Philippines and
Japan, and other stakeholders like the US if it makes use of its
power.
On the other, if China conceals its power, its determination to
safeguard territorial integrity will be underestimated, which
would further foster the unscrupulousness of countries like
Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan.
China also bears pressure from the inside, which simply calls for
a rough stand against provocations from Vietnam and the
Philippines.
But the Chinese government needs to weigh up different scenarios
and look at the big picture.
China has taken the first assertive step in securing its
territorial integrity in the South China Sea, and in the meantime
faces strong protests from Hanoi and Manila, and obvious bias from
the US. China's diplomatic risks are rising, but these are the
costs that have to be borne as China becomes more powerful.
The South China Sea disputes should be settled in a peaceful
manner, but that doesn't mean China can't resort to non-peaceful
measures in the face of provocation from Vietnam and the
Philippines. Many people believe that a forced war would convince
some countries of China's sincerely peaceful intentions, but it is
also highly likely that China's strategy would face more
uncertainties."<END QUOTE>
There are some people who hope that China will seek some compromise
with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, to avoid going to war. This
essay, like many other essays, shows that China has no intention of
even minimal compromise, and will continue to annex other countries'
territories. These countries will have a choice of being repeatedly
demeaned, debased and humiliated, or striking back. But these are all
proud countries with proud populations that are growing increasingly
nationalistic by the day. This can only end one way. Global Times (Beijing)
****
**** China's military can now destroy every U.S. satellite
****
A U.S. Air Force analysis demonstrates that China is the first country
in the world with a weapon capable of destroying satellites in
geostationary orbit. When combined with their other anti-satellite
systems, every U.S. satellite is now vulnerable to destruction in time
of war.
This is only one of the ways that China's military is today becoming
more technologically superior to the U.S. In numerous areas of
military competition, China's military capabilities are rapidly
approaching and exceeding those of the United States.
Military analysts have frequently made mistakes in the last decade
that systematically underestimate China's military capabilities. One
error is to misjudge China's doctrinal and capability innovations,
such as ballistic missiles, because they operate differently than
America's military capabilities. Today, many analysts substantially
overestimate the time and underestimate the ability of the Chinese to
train their military to use the new capabilities. In fact, every year
in the last decade, U.S. intelligence estimates of what and how much
China can do have turned out to be wrong. The National Interest
****
**** Massive floods in Balkans uncovering landmines from 1990s war
****
The devastating flooding of the last few days in Serbia and Bosnia is
the worst since record keeping began 120 years ago. Many entire
cities and villages have been submerged by the floods, and dozens of
people have been killed. Over 50,000 people have been forced to
evacuate their homes. The region received in two days the amount
of rain normally received in two months.
The flooding is also uncovering land mines that were buried during the
Bosnian war in the 1990s. The flooding is also causing landslides
that shift the locations of the land mines from their original
locations in minefields. Signs that had been erected that warned of
land mines and marked the locations of mine fields have been washed
away, so that it's no longer knowable where the land mines are.
CNN
****
**** Algeria closes its borders with Libya as fighting mounts in Tripoli
****
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) are among the countries
evacuating their embassies in Tripoli, the capital city of Libya, and
Algeria has closed its border with Libya, as civil war is threatened.
Libya is a land of hundreds of militias, all competing with one
another for power and money. Before 2011, dictator Muammar Gaddafi
had been in power for 30 years, and had succeeded in keeping the
militias under control. After he was ousted by the Nato military
intervention, Libya has been increasingly lawless, with a central
government in Tripoli having difficulties governing.
Over the weekend, General Khalifa Haftar defected from the government
and joined a group of anti-government militias, leading to fears of an
all out civil war. Haftar says that he's fighting terrorism in Libya
by fighting against Islamist militias, some of whom have links to
al-Qaeda. Some are comparing him to Egypt's General Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi, who overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood government last year.
There are now two main groups of militias in Libya, the Islamist
militias headed by parliament chief Nouri Abu Sahmein versus Haftar's
group of those opposed to the Islamists. There has already been
fighting in Benghazi and Tripoli, and it's feared that the fighting
will spiral out of control.
The U.S. military has doubled the number of aircraft standing by in
Italy if needed to evacuate Americans from the U.S. Embassy in
Tripoli. A decision to evacuate will be made "minute by minute, hour
by hour," according to defense officials. Daily Star (Beirut) and CNN
****
**** Thailand's army declares martial law
****
Thailand's army has taken a surprise decision without consulting the
government to declare martial law in Bangkok on Tuesday morning, after
months of chaos that have all but shut the country's economy down.
( "10-May-14 World View -- Ethnic tensions rise in Thailand as PM is forced to resign"
)
According to the army, it's taken the step "to preserve law and order
for people from all sides" and to stop "ill-intentioned groups from
using war weapons." The army has conducted coups in the past,
including a 2006 coup ousting Thaksin Shinawatra, the brother of
Yingluck Shinawatra, who was forced to resign as prime minister last
week. However, the army announcement insists that Tuesday's
declaration is not a coup. "The public do not need to panic but can
still live their lives as normal." BBC
Note: Some days it's hard to find any news stories more relevant than
the search for airplane parts in the Indian Ocean. But that was not
the case today.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Department of Justice, Unit 61398, Shanghai, Mandiant,
Global Times, Bosnia, Serbia, Libya, Tripoli, Algeria,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Muammar Gaddafi,
Khalifa Haftar, Nouri Abu Sahmein, Benghazi,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Thailand, Bangkok, Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
21-May-14 World View -- Jihadists from New York to Uzbekistan flock to Syria to fight
*** 21-May-14 World View -- Jihadists from New York to Uzbekistan flock to Syria to fight
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- 'Catastrophic' bombing in Jos Nigeria kills 118
- FBI says that Americans are going to Syria for jihad
- Militants from Russia, Central Asia join Jamaat Sabiri to fight in Syria
- Use of social media to recruit jihadists
****
**** 'Catastrophic' bombing in Jos Nigeria kills 118
****
Shopkeepers in Jos salvage belongings after the attack (AFP)
Two car bombs exploded in a busy market in Jos, a city in central
Nigeria. The first explosion went off at 3:28 pm in the center of the
market, and the second followed about 14 minutes later. The attack
was meant to cause as many casualties as possible. The victims were
ordinary people, both Christians and Muslims.
The terrorist group Boko Haram has not yet claimed responsibility, but
they are believed to be responsible. Boko Haram appears to have
declared total war against Nigeria -- abducting hundreds of
schoolgirls, and exploding one car bomb after another in different
parts of the country. Nigeria's government and president Goodluck
Jonathan appear to be helpless to stop the attacks. PM News Nigeria and CNN
****
**** FBI says that Americans are going to Syria for jihad
****
New research indicates that some 11,000 foreign fighters from around
the world have traveled to Syria to join al-Qaeda linked Sunni
terrorists fighting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
who is fighting a war of extermination against his own Sunni Muslim
population. About 3000 have come from Western Europe, and on Tuesday
the FBI indicated that more than 100 of them are Americans.
Furthermore, the problem has been "metastasizing rapidly," as more and
more young, disaffected Sunni Muslims go to the "jihadist magnet" for
training and experience.
I've been writing about this for well over a year, and it's been a bit
of a puzzle about why this very serious problem has been ignored by
the mainstream media. Probably the simple answer is that much of the
media acts as a mouthpiece for President Obama, who has declared that
the war against terrorism is over, and so mentioning American going to
Syria for jihadism training would make Obama look bad. As far as
Europe is concerned, one analyst says,
<QUOTE>"[T]hat’s because some on the left in Britain and
elsewhere have been busy downplaying the conflict or romanticizing
it as something akin to the international brigades during the
Spanish Civil War that attracted George Orwell and other
idealists. But unlike Orwell in the 1930s, these fighters on their
way to Syria are not traveling to fight against fascists. Many are
young Western Muslims rushing to join a fascist group that is too
extreme even for al-Qaeda: the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
(ISIS). Members have been known to behead even fellow
fighters. And it’s not much consolation that the more 'moderate'
volunteers are joining, Jabhat al-Nusra, which is the official
Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria."<END QUOTE>
American intelligence officials believe that among the dozens of
Americans who have gone to Syria to fight, six to 12 or more have
already returned to America, and may be planning terrorist attacks
here. In addition, European citizens from countries that visa waivers
can easily travel to the United States. Daily Beast and ICSR, King's College London and Daily Beast (4/27)
****
**** Militants from Russia, Central Asia join Jamaat Sabiri to fight in Syria
****
A new militant jihadist group, Jamaat Sabiri, is raising concern in
Uzbekistan in Central Asia because it's recruiting central Asians to
fight alongside al-Qaeda linked terrorists in Syria. The group's core
is made up of about jihadists from countries in Central Asia, as well
as Russians from Chechnya and Dagestan. An Uzbek government official
points out that militants seeking to join the Syrian war have been
streaming into Syria by different routes, including via Pakistan and
Turkey:
<QUOTE>"[Transporting militants into Syria] isn't a simple
operation, so there are some major players who work out the
details and provide funding and protection. ...
We've been seeking to find out via our channels what Uzbeks are
fighting on the terrorists' side. New reinforcements mostly
consist of ethnic Uzbeks born in Osh Oblast, Kyrgyzstan, where
recruiters are active and where there's an extensive network of
informal and unregistered Islamic groups ostensibly studying the
Koran. We actively co-operate with our Kyrgyz colleagues on that
issue."<END QUOTE>
This is a new direction for Uzbek militants, made possible by the war
in Syria. In 2009 ( "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan"
) I
wrote about the growth of al-Qaeda linked Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU), centered in the Fergana Value, where Osh
is located, and its plan for global jihadism. At that time,
the IMU was linked with al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan
and Afghanistan.
My 2009 article included a brief generational history of Uzbekistan,
with a focus on the ancient conflicts along the fault line separating
ethnic Uzbeks and ethnic Russians. Now that fault line is flaring
again, as jihadist Central Asians and jihadist Russians are joining
forces in Syria, in the form of a new jihadist group, Jamaat Sabiri.
And all of these jihadists have a common enemy: ethnic Russians. A
prime motivator of Jamaat Sabiri would be the fact that Russia's
president Vladimir Putin is providing an unlimited supply of heavy
weapons to genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad to be used in his war
crimes against Sunni Muslim women and children. They're undoubtedly
already planning massive terrorist attacks in Moscow and other large
Russian cities.
It's too late for the West to do anything about Syria now, even if it
had the will. Syria is already way too far down the road to be
helped, or to keep it from triggering the massive sectarian war that
will encompass the entire Mideast. I believe that the West could have
taken out al-Assad in 2011 and done the world a big favor.
But there's no excuse for the actions of Putin. Putin has
single-handedly created the what is currently the greatest disaster in
the world, and has no desire to stop.
Putin appears to me a man with the worst nihilistic impulses, and at
times like this I like to quote Edith Hamilton's book, The Greek
Way, and her translation of the speech of Aeschylus's tragic
character Prometheus:
<QUOTE>"There is no torture and no cunning trick,
There is no force that can compel my speech. ...
So let [Zeus] hurl his blazing thunderbolt,
And with the white wings of snow,
With lightning and with earthquake,
Confound the reeling world.
None of this will bend my will. ...
Seek to persuade the sea wave not to break.
You will persuade me no more easily."<END QUOTE>
Prometheus refuses to listen, and the universe crashes around him.
Central Asia Online
****
**** Use of social media to recruit jihadists
****
A new report entitled "Jihad Trending: A Comprehensive Analysis of
Online Extremism and How to Counter it" describes the role that
extremist materials online play in the radicalization process that's
sued to recruit jihadists. According to the report:
- The vast majority of radicalized individuals come into contact
with extremist ideology through offline socialization prior to being
indoctrinated online. This challenges popular discourse about 'lone
wolf' actors radicalized solely through the Internet.- Although governments are increasingly relying on censorship and
filtering methods to counter online extremism, this report found that
negative measures, or censorship in general, was not only ineffective
and costly but also potentially counter-productive.
The report recommends developing "counter-extremist" materials and
publishing them online to challenge extremist ideologies. Quilliam Foundation
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jos, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Goodluck Jonathan,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Jamaat Sabiri, Uzbekistan, Dagestan, Chechnya,
Kyrgyzstan, Osh, Fergana Valley, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan,
Edith Hamilton, Aeschylus, Prometheus, Quilliam
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Some commentary on the emerging alliance between Russia and China, egged on by hypocritical and maladroit US policy.
Fortunately, generational dynamics tells us we have nothing to fear on this end. Russia will inevitably side with US in a confrontation with China, just as China was happy to isolate Russia over the annexation of the Crimea. USA! USA!
22-May-14 World View - President invokes War Powers Act, sends troops to help Nigeria
*** 22-May-14 World View -- President invokes War Powers Act, sends troops to help Nigeria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia and China sign 'historic' energy deal
- As reality sets in, east Ukraine public turns against Russian separatists
- Boko Haram strikes again, this time in northern Nigeria
- President invokes War Powers Act, sends troops to help Nigeria
****
**** Russia and China sign 'historic' energy deal
****
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Shanghai on Wednesday (Getty)
Russia's president Vladimir Putin and China's president Xi Jinping in
Shangai signed an energy deal that specifies that Russia, starting in
2018, will deliver 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to
China, meeting a quarter of China's current natural gas demand of 150
billion cubic meters. Over 30 years, the deal, which is being
described as "historic," is expected to be worth around $400 billion.
Putin was extremely anxious to get this deal signed. As the Ukraine
crisis has unfolded, the Europeans have increasingly discussed being
less dependent on Russian energy. Furthermore, the gas to be supplied
to China will come from Russia's Far East, where there is no natural
buyer except China. On the other hand, China has a number of other
potential sources.
The announcement was something of a surprise, and occurred after a
number of news reports had said that Putin's visit to China had failed
to produce an energy deal. However, details of the deal, particularly
the price, were not revealed, and it's believed that China forced a
desperate Vladimir Putin to accept a rock bottom price, much lower
price than he would have liked. Many analysts believe that 2018 date
is extremely optimistic, and that a 2020 date is more realistic.
Whether the deal continues to appear "historic" remains to be seen.
Forbes and AP
****
**** As reality sets in, east Ukraine public turns against Russian separatists
****
A new survey shows that people living in eastern Ukraine, where
separatists are active, shows that only 22% of the people want Ukraine
aligned with Russia, while 32% say it should be closer to the European
Union. This is happening because the initial "revolutionary"
excitement is dying down and reality is setting in. Rotting garbage
is piling up in the hallways of the government office building seized
by separatists in eastern Ukraine. And the separatists who are
supposedly government separatist regions in reality have almost no
authority over anything except themselves. According to one analyst,
the annexation of Crimea is already causing problems for Russia: "It's
already too costly for Russia to swallow Crimea. It will be just
impossible to swallow the east of Ukraine, but the public is expecting
it. So that's the difficulty." Washington Post and VOA
****
**** Boko Haram strikes again, this time in northern Nigeria
****
A day after a double bombing in the central Nigerian city of Jos
killed 118 people, a Boko Haram assault on three villages in northern
Nigeria on Wednesday killed 48 people. The terrorists attacked
villages, forcing people to hide in the bush, from where they could
watch as their homes of thatch-roofed mud huts were burned down.
As Boko Haram has abducted over 200 schoolgirls and perpetrated one
terrorist bombing after another, Nigeria's government has appeared to
be increasingly helpless, and Nigeria's army has been almost
completely invisible. National Post
****
**** President invokes War Powers Act, sends troops to help Nigeria
****
The United States is sending 80 military personnel and at least one
unarmed Predator reconnaissance aircraft drone to Chad as part of the
international effort to defeat Boko Haram. The unmanned drone will
join similar aircraft based in Niger that have already been
participating in the search for the kidnapped schoolgirls. The
President sent a letter to Congress invoking the War Powers Act:
<QUOTE>"Approximately 80 U.S. Armed Forces personnel have
deployed to Chad as part of the U.S. efforts to locate and support
the safe return of over 200 schoolgirls who are reported to have
been kidnapped in Nigeria. These personnel will support the
operation of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
aircraft for missions over northern Nigeria and the surrounding
area. The force will remain in Chad until its support in resolving
the kidnapping situation is no longer required.
This action has been directed in furtherance of U.S. national
security and foreign policy interests, pursuant to my
constitutional authority to conduct U.S. foreign relations and as
Commander in Chief and Chief Executive.
I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the
Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution
(Public Law 93-148). I appreciate the support of the Congress in
these actions."<END QUOTE>
ABC News and White House
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, China, Xi Jinping,
Ukraine, Crimea, Nigeria, Jos, Boko Haram, Chad
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
23-May-14 World View -- Thailand's army seizes power in victory for 'yellow shirts'
*** 23-May-14 World View -- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites
- A history of coups in Thailand
- China shocked by major terrorist attack in Xinjiang province
****
**** Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites
****
General Prayuth Chan-ocha (center) announces his army coup on nationwide television on Thursday
Just two days after declaring martial law and promising not to take
over the government, Thailand's army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha
did just that -- seizing control of government on Thursday in a
non-violent coup. Prayuth announced on Thai television:
<QUOTE>"In order for the situation to return to normal
quickly and for society to love and be at peace again ... and to
reform the political, economic and social structure, the military
needs to take control of power."<END QUOTE>
Prayuth represents a major victory for the "yellow shirt" elite
protesters, mostly of Chinese descent, known as Thai-Chinese. They've
crippled the capital city Bangkok for months, demanding that the prime
minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, step down. Yingluck's main
constituency is the much larger "red shirt" population of mostly
indigenous ethnic Thais, known as Thai-Thais. Yingluck finally did
resign two weeks ago, as a result of a court order, but the yellow
shirts were demanding a lot more: Instead of permitting a democratic
election, the elites were demanding that the government be run by a
"people's council" that they select. The reason is that an election
would only bring to power another "red shirt" leader, as Yingluck's
Pheu Thai political party has won the last five elections.
It now appears that the elites will have their way. Prayuth is no
neutral observer. He has openly favored the yellow shirt cause, and
he ordered the Thai army to run tanks through red shirt barricades and
assault them with live ammunition when they the ones protesting in
2010. However, he's taken no similar actions against the yellow
shirts that have been protesting since December, shutting down
businesses and government buildings. Bangkok Post and BBC
****
**** A history of coups in Thailand
****
Thailand is quite familiar with army coups. There have been 18
previous successful or attempted coups since the country became a
constitutional monarchy in 1932. The most recent coup occurred in
2006, when Thaksin Shinawatra, the charismatic brother of Yingluck,
was deposed in an army coup.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is building into
a familiar and bloody situation. Thailand's last generational crisis
war was the 1970s extremely bloody "killing fields" civil war that
occurred next door in Cambodia, in which the Thai strongly supported
the Khmer Rouge terrorists that slaughtered some 8 million Cambodians.
So Thailand today is in a generational Awakening era.
So what we have now in Thailand is two major groups separated by an
ethnic fault line. The Thai-Chinese live mostly in central Thailand
around Bangkok, and they're a "market-dominant minority," meaning that
even though they're a minority, they control most of the money and
businesses in the country. The Thai-Thai live in rural areas, mostly
in the north. Many are farmers, but many are laborers that do the
jobs that the elites don't want to do.
So as I've written several times in the last few years, here's what we
can expect: Starting now in this generational Awakening era, there
will be periods of violence alternating with periods of peace. What
happens in these situations is that these alternating periods go on
for decades, with each period of violence worse than the preceding
one. Finally, when the country reaches a generational Crisis era
30-40 years later, the violence crosses a line, and the two ethnic
groups have a full scale civil war.
Now that Prayuth is running the country, what's he going to do
next? He can't call for an election, because the Pheu Thai
"red shirts" will win. He appears to be going in the direction
of giving the elites everything they want -- an unelected
"people's council," selected by the elites, to run the country.
While the yellow shirts have been protesting since December, the red
shirts have held back from confronting them, and their leaders have
said that they'd continue to do so as long as there wasn't a coup.
Well, now there's been a coup. You can be certain that the red shirt
protesters are absolutely furious, and they'll become even more
furious as this situation continues. They're demanding a new election
(because they believe that their side will win), and if the army
instead continues to install a "people's council" run almost entirely
by yellow shirts, there's going to be violence. We can expect a very
violent crackdown on any red shirt protests.
There's one more angle to this. Bhumibol Adulyadej, the King of
Thailand, is highly revered, and it's considered a crime even to
criticize him. But he's 86 and frail, and although he's not known to
be ill, he may pass before too much longer. There is some speculation
that Prayuth will try to assume some role with powers similar to the
King's at that time. This is speculation at this point, but if
military rule continues for months, then rumors about this possibility
can be expected to grow. BBC
****
**** China shocked by major terrorist attack in Xinjiang province
****
In possibly the worst terrorist attack in China in years, 31 people
were killed and 94 injured in a sophisticated attack on in Urumqi, the
capital of China's Xinjiang province, home of the Turkic Muslim ethnic
group, the Uighurs or Uyghurs. The attackers drove two cars into
crowds of shoppers at a crowded marketplace tossing bombs out the
window as they drove. The objective was obviously to cause as much
carnage as possible. It's believed that the assailants survived and
are in police custody. According to one analyst, "This is the single
most lethal terrorist attack that China has suffered."
Xinjiang is a vast region and is home to more than 10 million Uighurs.
China has tried to pacify the region in past decades by relocating
huge numbers of Han Chinese to Xinjiang, to the extent that Han
Chinese now outnumber Uighurs. Uighur activists claim that they
suffer a great deal of discrimination, not only getting the most
menial jobs, but also being restricted from their own cultural
practices such as prohibiting women from wearing traditional
headscarves or young men from growing beards. This has not pacified
the region, however, but only infuriated them further. The reports
don't say, but I'm going to guess that most of the shoppers in that
marketplace were Han Chinese. McClatchy and AP and Xinhua
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Prayuth Chan-ocha,
Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra,
Cambodia, killing fields, King Bhumibol Adulyadej,
China, Xinjiang, Uighurs
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Still no evidence to support the claim that the Yellow Shirts are mainly Chinese, or that this is a "Thai-Thai" vs Chinese Thai conflict.
No mention made of actual cultural differences between the regions.
No evidence to support the Khmer Rouge conflict in the 70s as being politically relevant today. No mention or analysis done of actual events that occurred in Thailand in the '70s, because that would require thought and effort, to which John is opposed. Just look at his website for proof.
The massacres in Cambodia were the only thing John had heard of, so clearly the present Thai social order was built on guilt over it. Yeah, classic "crisis war".
24-May-14 World View -- Washington seeks to protect Jordan and Israel from militants
*** 24-May-14 World View -- Washington seeks to protect Jordan and Israel from Syria militants
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Washington seeks to protect Jordan and Israel from Syria militants
- Britain's anti-European Union party appears headed for European Parliament
****
**** Washington seeks to protect Jordan and Israel from Syria militants
****
Map of the Battle for Golan - May 2014 (Debka)
Leaders in the U.S., Jordan, and Israel are becoming increasingly
concerned about the threats to Israel and Jordan from the al-Qaeda
linked Jabhat al-Nusra (the Islamic Front) group, which is now
controlling much of Syria's southern border. According to an Israeli
assessment, the insurgents have the upper hand in the Syrian Golan and
are close to occupying the key town of Quneitra, which has a border
crossing to Israel. Al-Assad’s military has suffered some serious
defeats in the Golan Heights in the last couple of months, causing
Israel to bolster its military forces in the Golan on the Syrian
border to confront the al-Nusra forces. The al-Assad regime is also
alarmed, as Quneitra is close to Damascus, and could serve as a
launching pad for an al-Nusra attack on Damascus.
Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) says
that the U.S. military may get back into the Mideast. According to
Debka, the U.S. administration, is supplying some rebel groups in
southern Syria with arms, intelligence and funding. Israeli and
Jordanian military intelligence experts are helping the CIA weed out
al-Qaeda fighters from the US-backed rebel forces and make sure they
do not get hold of the heavy weaponry, such as anti-aircraft
missiles that could be turned against Israel and Jordan.
Most observers now believe that the al-Assad regime is fully
entrenched, and not going anywhere. According to the Debka report,
the Obama administration's objective is to minimize the threat posed
to Israel and Jordan by by the Syrian Army and its allies, Iran's
Revolutionary Guards, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite
militias. Also, the US military would establish a foothold on the
Damascus periphery, and would seek to challenge Russia and Iran by
establishing ties with high-ranking Syrian general command officers
and the field commanders of units deployed in and around Damascus.
According to Debka's intelligence sources, this strategy was fiercely
opposed by Joint Chiefs chairman Martin E. Dempsey, who opposes new
military operations during the Afghanistan withdrawal, and who fears
that it would bring the U.S. face to face with the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah, and even Russian servicemen posted
from Moscow. However, the Obama administration was convinced by
Jordanian and Israeli officials, who argued that this was Washington's
last chance to force the Syrian army and its Iranian allies to stay
away from their borders, while at the same time planting a strong US
presence in position for determining the future course of events in
Damascus. Reuters and Al-Monitor and Debka (Subscription)
****
**** Britain's anti-European Union party appears headed for European Parliament
****
UK Independence Party (UKIP) surged in local elections on Thursday,
leading many to believe that Sunday will market its biggest electoral
triumph to date when the results of elections to the European
Parliament are announced. UKIP leader Nigel Farage bragged, "This is
a massive leap forward in the battle to break into Westminster
constituencies in numbers in the general election next year."
According to the UKIP web site, "UKIP is a patriotic party that
believes in putting Britain first. ... The EU controls Immigration,
Business and Employment, Financial Services, Fishing, Farming, Energy
and Trade. It seeks now to control Law and Order, Foreign Affairs and
Tax. Only outside the EU can we start to solve the problems our
country faces." The party platform includes:
- A vote for UKIP is a vote to leave the EU and recover power
over our national life.- Regain control of our borders and of immigration - only possible
by leaving the EU.- Proof of private health insurance must be a precondition for
immigrants and tourists to enter the UK.
Farage and the party have been accused of being "racist, sexist and
homophobic," but according to Farage this name-calling backfired on
election day. France 24 and UKIP Web Site
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, Israel, Quneitra, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, Golan, Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic Front,
Martin E. Dempsey, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia,
Nigel Farage, UK Independence Party
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
The problem is that you could say this about anything. For example,
why is WW II a crisis war for America? One could just as easily say
that it was one long war that ran from 1917 to 1954. How would you
prove otherwise?
You've provided a long list of wars, and obviously I can't respond
to all of them.
So I'd like to suggest that you pick one of the wars, the one that you
feel makes your point the best, and do your own research. Try to find
5-10 detailed histories of the war, and the decades preceding and
following the war, and see if you can identify:
- When non-crisis clashes began.
- What ethnic, racial, or religious fault lines existed?
- When the regeneracy occurred.
- When the crisis climax occurred.
- What happened in the aftermath.
Then we can discuss whether that particular war fits the crisis war
paradigm or not.
John
Well, I don't remember you providing any shred of evidence for your
numerous claims.
But in fact, you're right. There's little or no evidence in the
science or mathematical sense.
I heard and read exactly the same thing about S&H when I first started
out in 2002-3. Historians and academics would say, "S&H have no
proof," "S&H have no evidence," "S&H is just sociological nonsense,"
"S&H is garbage."
(Incidentally, there are prominent people in this forum who believed
and probably still believe that S&H is garbage.)
One particular source of ridicule was WW I. S&H claimed that WW I was
NOT a crisis war, while WW II was. They certainly didn't "prove" that
statement, and actually provided very weak evidence to support it.
People I spoke to in the 2002-3 time frame often pointed to that one
fact alone to deride S&H.
That was the situation I was faced with in 2003. So my problem was
how to rehabilitate S&H and generational theory (or maybe I should say
"habilitate").
And today I claim that I HAVE rehabilitated S&H and generational
theory. I've done so by incorporating into the core theory such
things as the Principle of Localization, elements of System Dynamics
and Chaos Theory, and other things. These additions made the theory a
lot more rigorous, and eliminated several anomalies.
** Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology (PDF)
** http://GenerationalDynamics.com/gdgr...l_Dynamics.pdf
In 2003, I didn't know whether S&H was garbage or not. But I
decided that whether or not it was garbage depended on whether
it could be used to make predictions. So I set up my web site
as a place to post predictions, and allow anyone to see if they
come true. And I issued a challenge for any politician, web site,
analyst or journalist to have better predictive success than
my web site.
Now, 11 years later, I've proven that generational theory is
valid because all the predictions have been coming true.
Interestingly enough, I no longer get those criticisms that
generational theory is garbage. The nature of the criticisms has
changed. Typical criticisms today are that I'm an alarmist, or that
I'm a left-wing or right-wing ideologue who's trying to cause a panic
or a war. But after 11 years of successful predictions, no one calls
it garbage any more, and there are tens of thousands of regular
readers who may disagree with some point or other, but who consider it
to be, on the whole, valid.
So when you say that I've provided no proof that the Cambodian civil
war was a crisis war for Thailand, you're right in one sense. In
fact, it's impossible to "prove" that any war is a crisis war.
But in the most important sense, that statement misses the point.
I've made a prediction that the red shirts and yellow shirts will not
go into a crisis civil war because Thailand is in a generational
Awakening era. I've predicted a pattern of alternating periods of
clashes and peace agreements. In fact I made that prediction several
years ago, and so far that's exactly what's happened.
So if they're in an all out genocidal civil war a year from now, then
I'll have been wrong. But I know that can't happen, and the way I
know that is because Thailand is in a generational Awakening era.
Since you know a lot about Thailand, I'd like to suggest that you
research the issue:
- What were details of the government's support for the Khmer Rouge?
- Which ethnic groups supported and which opposed the government's
support?- How did ordinary people (in different ethnic groups) FEEL and how
did they BEHAVE in reaction to the massive slaughter going on on their
doorstep?- Did any ethnic groups feel strongly enough about the war that some
formed militias and went to Cambodia to fight on one side or the other
- perhaps even to fight alongside their own family members on the
other side of the border?- Compare the Thai participation in the Cambodian war to the
participation of Switzerland, Iceland and Kansas in WW II.
Typically, this level of research requires checking out at least a
dozen sources. Following the S&H methodology, you should look for
diaries, histories and blogs of people who were there at the time, and
who are describing what happened from their own points of view.
Mainstream sources seldom provide any information besides a few names
and dates.
I know this is a lot of work, but it's the every day "bread and
butter" work required for generational theory. It's what S&H had to
do and it's what I've had to do. And who knows? Maybe you'll get
lucky about something and prove me wrong!
John
P.S.: Any other member of this forum is invited to jump in and do some
of this research. It would be very interesting to get a solid
generational history of Thailand.
John,
Yeah, whatever the epistemological underpinnings of the S & H theory, I can continue to use it as a model for what's happening because of its predictive power. Not just for S & H, although the 4T prophecy chapter is what I get people to read first when I want to convince them to slog through the first hundred pages or so of junk, but for my own stuff. Case in point, this here.
As for the rest of it, I accept, and while I consolidate that into a single post (probably not today), here are some previous comments made in the meantime:
Yes, Switzerland fully mobilized, Iceland was invaded and later declared itself a republic, Kansas was part of a country that mobilized and invaded two continents after being attacked.
If you'd like to argue that the Crisis for Thailand was in the '70s and '80s, you'd do better to look at that period from the Thai Student Uprising in 1973, with the associated Peasant Revolts, and student massacres, that led to a period of unrest and alternating military dictatorships, that was finally ended by a popular military dictator (and civilian prime minister) who paved the way for lasting democracy in 1991. You could take that interpretation, but since they're basically rehashing the same debate now, which would imply that the issues weren't resolved, it makes more sense to think of it as an Awakening. Especially since thinking of it as a Crisis would require thinking of the Military Dictatorship imposed in 1932; that saw the end of the absolute monarchy, the renaming of the country, the acquisition ofproblematic territories, and the imposition of the central Thai culture on the rest of the nation as a homogenizing measure, as an Awakening. Which period involved top down reforms, and which one bottom-up ones? Which one involved the country coming together, and which one saw it come apart? Which one led to a static political order?
When you look the outbreak of both the Malaysan insurgency and the pro and anti Thaksin camps breaking out in the past decade, and the impending death of the King, I don't think your interpretation makes as much sense.As I pointed out before, you are seriously overstating the ethnic Chinese angle. Almost half the population of Thailand (some 40%) have partial Chinese descent. The Shinawatras are Thai-Chinese from Chiang Mai. The big split is regional (Lanna and Isan, who are closer to Lao, versus the Central and Southern Thai), class, and rural/urban.The Thai-Chinese are undoubtedly a market-dominant minority, but that's true on both sides. The majority of the founder of Thai Rak Thai were at least part Chinese, and the majority of foot supporters of the PAD (Yellow Shirts) are ethnic Thais, and 40% of the population is mixed. There is ample evidenceto suggest tensions relating to the regional and class splits. Please show me one source saying that this is an ethnic Thai uprising against the Chinese.Which is to say, the major periods of change that occurred during this past century or so were from 1932 to the early 50s, and from 1973 to about 1991. One of them was a top down, homogenizing, relatively united, militaristic affair (in the sense of being about territorial gains and external threats) and the other was an ideological, fractious, student and peasant driven time of upheaval. Both the Malay insurgency (rebelling against a political settlement from WWII territorial gains) and the split between red and yellow shirts stemmed from about 10 years ago, just when another active period was due to emerge. Personally, I think, and intend to further demonstrate, that it makes the most sense to think of the WWII era (where the people who took power and tactically allied with the Japanese regained power even though the Japanese lost) as a Crisis, the period from the late '60s to the late '80s as an Awakening, and the present conflicts as presaging a violent internal crisis once the King is dead.We're supposed to ignore the dramatic institutional changes (end of the absolute monarchy, process ofThaification) starting in 1932, the cultural upheaval and protests in the late '60s to late 80s, that toppled the existing oligarchy without replacing it with anything new, a conservative counterreaction that incorporated some of the leftist student's demands without building new institutions, and now we're having the country divide into two warring camps, complete with color coded uniforms, and this is supposed to be an Awakening?
So, no evidence of this being an anti-Chinese revolt (and a pretty weird one, considering the party revolting is run almost exclusively by Thai-Chinese)?
Also, on the whole Thai Chinese Thai Thai thing, I've seen no evidence provided of that, the only mention of it I can find anywhere is from stuff you've written, the Shinawatras are Thai Chinese themselves (as were most of the Thai Rak Thai party's founders), while I can find both Western and local sources pointing to divides between Central Thai and northerners, particularly the Isan region where the people are more closely related to the Lao across the river.
I find "the major periods of change" concept to be very slippery.
For example, WW II was not, in my opinion, a major period of change
for America itself. Arguably, the resignation of Richard Nixon in
1974 was a greater change, and that was an Awakening climax.
Other Awakening climaxes were the Weimar collapse in Germany in 1917,
the 1989 velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia, and the collapse of
apartheid in South Africa in 1991. I would add the collapse of the
Soviet Union to this list. There was no war, but the regimes set up
by Lenin and Stalin simply collapsed of their own weight, thanks to
younger generations who had no use for them.
John
I find your conception of Awakening Climaxes to be somewhat slippery as well, as they appear to happen in any turning. I'll stick to orthodox S & H for now.
Let me rephrase it, there are two periods (the '30s&'40s versus the '70s & '80s) in contention for being either Awakenings or Crises. I have posted some quick links in support of my contention that it makes more sense, using S & H definitions, to think of them as being Crisis (WWII era) and Awakening (Student & Peasant upheavals, democracy movements and conservative counterreactions) than the other way round. Do you have any comment on that specifically?
I think this is a bit disingenuous, as well. The previous 4T included not just WWII, but the Depression/New Deal as well, which was very much a major period of change for the country's institutions and political life.For example, WW II was not, in my opinion, a major period of change
for America itself.
25-May-14 World View -- Pope visits Mideast to reconcile with Jews, Orthodox, Muslims
*** 25-May-14 World View -- Pope Francis visits Mideast to reconcile with Jews, Orthodox, and Muslims
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Pope Francis visits Mideast to urge freedom of religion
- The schism of the Orthodox and the heresy of the Protestants
- Pope Francis's visit also commemorates forgiveness of Jews
****
**** Pope Francis visits Mideast to urge freedom of religion
****
Pope Francis kisses a boy before celebrating a mass in Amman on Saturday (Getty)
Pope Francis visited Jordan on Saturday, where he asked for freedom of
religion for everyone. On Sunday, he'll move on to the Palestinian
territories, and give the nod to the state of Palestine, and then move
on to Jerusalem, where he'll meet with Orthodox and Jewish leaders.
In Jordan, he denounced arms dealers who are bringing misery to the
Syrian civil war. He had an emotional meeting with refugees from
Syria and Iraq who have fled to Jordan. He prayed to God:
<QUOTE>"Convert those who seek war, those who make and sell
weapons!
We all want peace, but looking at the tragedy of war, looking at
the wounded, seeing so many people who left their homeland who
were forced to go away, I ask, 'Who sells weapons to these people
to make war?'" he asked. "This is the root of evil, the hatred,
the love of money."<END QUOTE>
The Pope particularly took note of violence against Christian
communities, forcing many to flee the region. He encouraged those who
had decided to remain in the region. AP
****
**** The schism of the Orthodox and the heresy of the Protestants
****
While the Protestant Reformation is considered to be a heresy in the
Catholic Church, the split between the Roman (Catholic) and Byzantine
(Orthodox) churches is generally called a "schism," because there are
no serious doctrinal differences separating the churches. From the
early days, there were always several branches of the Catholic Church,
the two most important being the Western / Roman branch and the
Eastern / Greek branch centered in Byzantium (later Constantinople,
and even later Istanbul). But, like a married couple living apart,
they developed differences that eventually could not be reconciled,
and led to estrangement. The Romans couldn't speak Greek, and the
Greeks couldn't speak Latin. Each developed rites that were strange
to the other. They had joint meetings and councils, but they couldn't
agree on policies, and couldn't understand each other anyway. The
schism officially began on July 16, 1054, when Rome excommunicated a
Greek patriarch, Caerularius.
For the Greek Orthodox, the seminal moment in their relationship with
the Catholics came with the Crusades. In 1204, along the way to
fighting the Muslims, the Crusades sacked Constantinople, starving and
murdering its citizens, and plundering the Church's treasures
accumulated over the centuries. The deed was capped by placing a
prostitute on the Emperor's throne at the church of St. Sophia, at
that time the most beautiful church in Christendom. This moment is
burned into the psyches of Orthodox Christians.
In 1964, Pope Paul VI and Orthodox Patriarch Athenagoras met in
Jerusalem for the purpose of healing the schism and uniting the
Churches. It was the first meeting of the leaders of the split church
since 1054. In 2001, Pope John Paul visited Athens and encountered
large anti-Catholic protests. He apologized for the sacking of
Constantinople, and made a plea for forgiveness.
So now the official purpose of Pope Francis's Mideast trip is to
commemorate the 50th anniversary of the 1964 meeting. Francis will
meet Bartholomew I, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople. He's
still the Patriarch of Constantinople, even though the name of the
city was changed to Istanbul, after the Moslems conquered it in 1453.
They will meet on Sunday at the spot where Jesus is believed to be
buried.
By the way, if my mother were alive today, she would be furious at all
this. She loved the Catholic Church and often attended services there
(because they're considerably shorter than the Greek Orthodox
services), but she is quite clear that the Catholics and the Greek
Orthodox are, in her words, "completely useless to each other."
The Protestant Reformation began in 1517, when Martin Luther posted
his "95 Theses" on the door of Wittenburg Cathedral, in protest at the
Catholic doctrine of indulgences. The 500th anniversary of that event
occurs in 3 years. New Advent Encyclopedia
and NPR
****
**** Pope Francis's visit also commemorates forgiveness of Jews
****
On Saturday, Pope Francis said that "Religious freedom is in fact a
fundamental human right," and he hoped that there would be a "climate
of serene coexistence" between all religions. During his visit to
Jerusalem on Sunday, the Pope will undoubtedly make remark about
coexistence with the Jewish religion.
For centuries, the Catholics have blamed the Jews for the death of
Jesus, and have justified discrimination against Jews for that reason.
The most explicit statement of this was a Papal bull issued by Pope
Paul IV on July 14, 1555. It applied mainly to the city of Rome. It
established a ghetto with only one entrance and exit, and prescribed
severe economic restrictions. It begins with the words, "Cum Nimis
Absurdu" ("As it is completely absurd"), and goes on to explain that
though they are condemned to eternal servitude through their own fault
(killing Jesus), it is absurd that they should be allowed to live
freely with Christians.
Here's the beginning:
<QUOTE>"As it is completely absurd and improper in the utmost
that the Jews, who through their own fault were condemned by God
to eternal servitude, can under the pretext that pious Christians
must accept them and sustain their habitation, are so ungrateful
to Christians, as, instead of thanks for gracious treatment, they
return contumely, and among themselves, instead of the slavery,
which they deserve, they manage to claim superiority: we, who
newly learned that these very Jews have insolently invaded our
City Rome and a number of the Papal States, territories and
domains their impudence increased so much that they dare not only
to live amongst the Christian people, but also in the vicinity of
the churches without any difference of dressing, and even that
they rent houses in the main streets and squares, buy and hold
immovable property, engage maids, nurses and other Christian
servants, and commit other and numerous misdeeds with shame and
contempt of the Christian name. Considering that the Church of
Rome tolerates these very Jews evidence of the true Christian
faith and to this end [we declare]: that they, won over by the
piety and kindness of the See, should at long last recognize their
erroneous ways, and should lose no time in seeing the true light
of the catholic faith, and thus to agree that while they persist
in their errors, realizing that they are slaves because of their
deeds, whereas Christians have been freed through our Lord God
Jesus Christ, and that it is iniquitous for it to appear that the
sons of free women serve the sons of maids.
1. Desiring firstly, as much as we can with God, to beneficially
provide, by this. that will forever be in force, we ordain that
for the rest of time, in the City as well as in other states,
territories and domains of the Church of Rome itself, all Jews are
to live in one and if there is not that capacity in two or three
or however many quarters may be enough; they should reside
entirely side by side in designated streets and be thoroughly
separate from the residences of Christians, by our authority in
the City and by that of our representatives in other states, lands
and domains noted above, and that there must be only one entrance
and exit from this quarter."<END QUOTE>
The paragraph above explicitly describes how the ghetto is to
work. The bull goes to list enormous restrictions on Jews,
including where they may earn a living.
Even in the 1800s, the Rome ghetto still existed. Here's how it's
described in the October 1870 edition of The Atlantic magazine:
<QUOTE>"The inquirer visited the Ghetto, in the low ground
near the Tiber, and found it "the most horrible and neglected
quarter of the town," in which not the humblest of the thousand
prelates about Rome would set his foot, any more than as Indian
Brahmin would cross the threshold of a Pariah's hovel. "I
learned,” says this author, “that the most humble employment in
the most humble office would as soon be given to a beast as to a
Jew; that for a child of Israel to ask in Rome to be employed as a
commissary, would he more absurd than for the giraffe of the
Jardin des Plantes to ask for an under-prefectship in Paris.” No
Jew can own a foot of land in the papal dominions, nor cultivate
one, unless in the name of a Christian; and if a Jew, using this
artifice, ventures to cultivate a garden or a farm, his harvest is
safe from pillage only so long as the legal device remains a
secret. Let but the Christians around learn that the harvest is
the property of an Israelite, and “a rage for plunder” seizes
them, which leaves the hapless proprietor with desolated
fields."<END QUOTE>
The Papal bull "Cum Nimis Absurdu" has never been withdrawn, and
was considered by many to be the teachings of the Church well
into the 20th century, well through the time of Hitler and
the Holocaust.
It was only fully repudiated finally on April 13, 1986, when Pope John
Paul II made a dramatic visit to the Great Synagogue of Rome and gave
an address that fully repudiated the terms of "Cum Nimis Absurdu":
<QUOTE>"We are all aware that, among the riches of this
paragraph no. 4 of Nostra Aetate, three points are especially
relevant. I would like to underline them here, before you, in this
truly unique circumstance. The first is that the Church of Christ
discovers her "bond" with Judaism by "searching into her own
mystery" (cf. Nostra Aetate, ibid.) The Jewish religion is not
"extrinsic" to us, but in a certain way is "intrinsic" to our own
religion. With Judaism therefore we have a relationship which we
do not have with any other religion. You are our dearly beloved
brothers and, in a certain way, it could be said that you are our
elder brothers.
The second point noted by the Council is that no ancestral or
collective blame can be imputed to the Jews as a people for "what
happened in Christ's passion" (cf. Nostra Aetate, ibid.) Not
indiscriminately to the Jews of that time, nor to those who came
afterwards, nor to those of today. So any alleged theological
justification for discriminatory measures or, worse still, for
acts of persecution is unfounded. The Lord will judge each one
"according to his own works," Jews and Christians alike (cf. Rom
2:6)
The third point that I would like to emphasize in the Council's
Declaration is a consequence of the second. Notwithstanding the
Church's awareness of her own identity, it is not lawful to say
that the Jews are "repudiated or cursed," as it this were taught
or could be deduced from the Sacred Scriptures of the Old or the
New Testament (cf. Nostra Aetate, ibid.). Indeed, the Council had
already said in this same text of Nostra Aetate, but also in the
Dogmatic Constitution Lumen Gentium, no. 16, referring to Saint
Paul in the Letter to the Romans (11:28-29), that the Jews are
beloved of God, who has called them with an irrevocable
calling."<END QUOTE>
In particular, for the first time, the Pope specifically and
unambiguously repudiated the claim that the Jews were at fault for the
death of Jesus. NY Daily News and Zionism-Israel Information and The Atlantic (Oct 1870) and CCJR (Council of Centers on Jewish Christian Relations)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pope Francis, Jordan, Palestine, Jerusalem,
Syria, Iraq, Catholic, Orthodox, Protestant, Constantinople,
Crusades, St. Sophia, Bartholomew I,
Pope Paul VI, Orthodox Patriarch Athenagoras,
Protestant Reformation, Martin Luther,
Cum Nimis Absurdu, As it is completely absurd
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
