Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

According to the report, China "is investing heavily in its ground
force, emphasizing the ability to deploy campaign-level forces across
long distances quickly. This modernization is playing out with
wide-scale restructuring of PLA ground forces that includes a more
rapid, flexible special operations force equipped with advanced
technology; improved army aviation units using helicopters armed with
precision- guided munitions; and C2 capabilities with improved
networks providing real-time data sharing within and between units."
These capabilities will be used in attacks on China's neighbors,
including Taiwan, and potentially for introducing ground forces into a
United States crippled by a barrage of missile attacks.

Xenakis mentions war with china but call anyone who emphasizes the primacy of naval and air forces in such a conflict, like in the war with imperial japan as being naïve. Xenakis consistently implies a Chinese war would not be a primarily naval based but a ground war, and not one in which a nuclear exchange occurs in which America spends several years rebuilding infrastructure and building a ground army followed by a ground invasion of what is left of china, but an eastern front style war fought on US soil. The reason most posters consider Xenakis to be a nut is not that he predicts a war with china, but because does not predict a naval based war fought with carriers, fleets and nuclear missiles deployed against enemy fleets and forward bases by the combatants. Instead he seems to be predicting a land war on US soil; A "red dawn" scenario is not logistically plausible, especially given that he also implies china would be fully occupied with Russia, India, and japan. China being repulsed in Taiwan and japan and elsewhere in battles that would stretch them to the limit logistically, yet somehow they are able to invade the united states, Like Germany invaded Russia in ww2, as if the pacific ocean and the first, second and third island chains don't exist.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Xenakis mentions war with china but call anyone who emphasizes the primacy of naval and air forces in such a conflict, like in the war with imperial japan as being naïve. Xenakis consistently implies a Chinese war would not be a primarily naval based but a ground war, and not one in which a nuclear exchange occurs in which America spends several years rebuilding infrastructure and building a ground army followed by a ground invasion of what is left of china, but an eastern front style war fought on US soil. The reason most posters consider Xenakis to be a nut is not that he predicts a war with china, but because does not predict a naval based war fought with carriers, fleets and nuclear missiles deployed against enemy fleets and forward bases by the combatants. Instead he seems to be predicting a land war on US soil; A "red dawn" scenario is not logistically plausible, especially given that he also implies china would be fully occupied with Russia, India, and japan. China being repulsed in Taiwan and japan and elsewhere in battles that would stretch them to the limit logistically, yet somehow they are able to invade the united states, Like Germany invaded Russia in ww2, as if the pacific ocean and the first, second and third island chains don't exist.

With respect to characterizing what I've written, this is almost complete fantasy.

Enemy amphibious operations against our allies and forces in the region are very plausible, however they would stretch enemy resources and logistical capabilities to the limit. On a side note there I recently saw an article on TheDiplomat on this subject.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/06/why-d...ld-fail-today/

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Xenakis mentions war with china but call anyone who emphasizes the primacy of naval and air forces in such a conflict, like in the war with imperial japan as being naïve. Xenakis consistently implies a Chinese war would not be a primarily naval based but a ground war, and not one in which a nuclear exchange occurs in which America spends several years rebuilding infrastructure and building a ground army followed by a ground invasion of what is left of china, but an eastern front style war fought on US soil. The reason most posters consider Xenakis to be a nut is not that he predicts a war with china, but because does not predict a naval based war fought with carriers, fleets and nuclear missiles deployed against enemy fleets and forward bases by the combatants. Instead he seems to be predicting a land war on US soil; A "red dawn" scenario is not logistically plausible, especially given that he also implies china would be fully occupied with Russia, India, and japan. China being repulsed in Taiwan and japan and elsewhere in battles that would stretch them to the limit logistically, yet somehow they are able to invade the united states, Like Germany invaded Russia in ww2, as if the pacific ocean and the first, second and third island chains don't exist.

The surest way to lose a Crisis War is to make enemies out of what should be allies. So long as he Soviet Union was an ideological enemy of the Soviet Union it could have been an ally of Germany in a war against the Soviet Union. Even while the country was completely occupied and subjugated, Poland remained a dangerous enemy of the Third Reich, its escaped soldiers, sailors, and airmen posing a relentless enemy on every front.

John Xenakis could be wrong (as anyone can be in predicting the future), but he is certainly no nut.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

The surest way to lose a Crisis War is to make enemies out of what should be allies. So long as he Soviet Union was an ideological enemy of the Soviet Union it could have been an ally of Germany in a war against the Soviet Union. Even while the country was completely occupied and subjugated, Poland remained a dangerous enemy of the Third Reich, its escaped soldiers, sailors, and airmen posing a relentless enemy on every front.

John Xenakis could be wrong (as anyone can be in predicting the future), but he is certainly no nut.

Actually I think he is correct in that we would fight a crisis war during this 4T. However he seems to overestimate Chinese power projection abilities. He Also thinks Iran and Russia would become our allies, which I definitely don't believe will occur. I actually think those two nations are even more dangerous than china. Russia In particular has been introducing new ICBM classes and new updated submarine forces like sausages ever since the early 90s and especially since 2006. Iran is clearly more capable than what is generally acknowledged. Both of the later nations have crafted or are crafting ideologies that revolve around anti-Americanism. China IMO is much more of a threat to Russia, India, Taiwan, and Japan than it is to the US, also a sizable chunk of US deterrent and ABM assets have been moved to the pacific theatre.

*** 9-Jun-14 World View -- Egypt's al-Sisi makes laundry list of promises at inauguration

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's al-Sisi makes laundry list of promises at inauguration
• Pope Francis plants an olive tree for Mideast Peace

****
**** Egypt's al-Sisi makes laundry list of promises at inauguration
****


Many Egyptians, especially women, cheer al-Sisi's inauguration speech, believing he's the savior they've been waiting for (AFP/BBC)

Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi was inaugurated as president of Egypt on
Sunday, to screams of delight from fans, particularly women. With
more than a quarter of Egyptians living in poverty, he promised to
cure poverty. He promised to build 26 new tourist resorts, eight new
airports and 22 industrial estates. He's just like Ukraine's Petro
Poroshenko, inaugurated on Saturday, India's Narendra Modi,
inaugurated two weeks ago, France's François Hollande last year, and
Barack Obama two years ago. They all make promises that can't be
fulfilled, and which are often mathematically impossible, which means
that they're all morons or liars or, more likely, both. In any event,
they're all full of crap.

On the one hand, al-Sisi promised "There will no exclusion of any
Egyptian from our march." But on the other hand, one thing that
al-Sisi did not do is hold out any hand of reconciliation to his
opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood, comprising 25-30% of the
population.

<QUOTE>"As for those who shed the blood of the innocents,
there will be no place for them in this path.

And I say it loud and clear, there will be no soft stand with
anyone who resorts to violence or whoever wants to delay our march
towards the future that we want for our children."<END QUOTE>

He called them terrorists and repeatedly said that national security
was his highest priority. Since he ousted president Mohamed Morsi's
Muslim Brotherhood last year as army chief, his army and security
forces have killed or jailed thousands of Egyptians, many completely
innocent. These include three reporters from al-Jazeera, who
apparently are jailed to get even with Qatar, al-Jazeera's home
country.

Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, sent al-Sisi a "cable
of congratulations" on his inauguration, but did not attend the
ceremony because he wasn't invited. Leaders of Saudi Arabia and
United Arab Emirates were invited, as were leaders of western
countries. The kings of Jordan and Bahrain also attended. However,
because of al-Sisi's violent ouster of democratically elected Morsi,
and continued violence against innocent protesters, no top officials
from Western countries were present. Many African Union leaders were
also absent, as Egypt was suspended from the African Union two days
after Morsi's ouster. BBC and
Reuters and AP

****
**** Pope Francis plants an olive tree for Mideast Peace
****

Pope Francis held a historic and unprecedented prayer meeting for
peace in the Mideast at the Vatican, together with Israel's president
Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. The
Pope said:

<QUOTE>"Peacemaking calls for courage, much more so than
warfare. It calls for the courage to say yes to meeting, and no
to conflict. yes to dialog, and no to violence. Yes to
negotiations, and no to hostilities. Yes to respecting deals, and
no to provocation. Yes to sincerity, and no to being false. For
all this, we need courage and strength of soul."<END QUOTE>

Shimon Peres said:

<QUOTE>"I have come here from Jerusalem, the cradle of the
three monotheistic religions, and the vibrant heart of the Jewish
People. In Hebrew, the word Jerusalem and the word for peace,
share the same root – Shalom. And it is with that prayer in our
heart and that call to action that we stand together. From
Jerusalem, I have come to call for Shalom – Peace. Peace between
nations. Peace between faiths. Peace between people. Peace for our
children."<END QUOTE>

Mahmoud Abbas said:

<QUOTE>"God, answer my prayers for peace and justice in my
homeland Palestine, the Middle East, and the rest of the
world."<END QUOTE>

In order to guarantee peace, the three went beyond words to bring
peace to the Mideast. In addition to their speeches and prayers, they
planted an olive tree in the Vatican garden together, to show how
people of the world could work together to build the world without
conflict.

One Vatican analyst said, "In the Middle East, symbolic gestures and
incremental steps are important." Other analysts around the world
exclaimed, "Thank God! Peace at last! The Pope has brought peace to
the Mideast! Thank God!" AP and Israel National News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Mohamed Morsi, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Qatar, African Union,
Pope Francis, Vatican, Israel, Shimon Peres,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan
• Tens of thousands of families flee homes in Pakistan's tribal area
• Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan
• Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough

****
**** Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan
****


Police display confiscated suicide vests and heavy weapons brought in by the terrorists. In the foreground are the dead bodies of the terrorists in white sacks (AP)

Taliban militants dressed as security forces stormed the Jinnah
International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday night and Monday
morning, and at least 30 people, including 10 heavily armed gunmen,
were killed in a battle that ran for six hours. Security forces
announced on Monday morning that the attack had come to an end,
but gunfire and bomb blasts continued to be heard into Monday
evening.

Jinnah International Airport is the largest and most prestigious
airport in Pakistan. It's named after Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the
founder of Pakistan. Jinnah is revered in Pakistan, for his work with
Mahatma Gandhi to bring about Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the
Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. When Gandhi was killed
by a Hindu extremist in February, 1948, Jinnah called him "one of the
greatest men produced by the Hindu community." Jinnah himself died
later that year of tuberculosis.

Pakistanis are expressing outrage that the militants were able to
bring into the airport a huge arsenal of suicide vests, grenades and
rocket launchers, without being detected by any airport security.
Express Tribune (Pakistan) and BBC and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** Tens of thousands of families flee homes in Pakistan's tribal area
****

Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) has claimed credit for the
attack. The spectacular Karachi airport attack comes at a time when
the Taliban itself is having problems. (See "29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two"
) The TTP claimed that
the airport attack was revenge for an American drone strike in
November 2011 that killed Hakimullah Mehsud, at that leader of the
TTP, whose death led to the split.

In recent months, Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif has been pursuing "peace
talks" with TTP. This pursuit was always something of a joke (like
the Mideast "peace talks") because the TTP demanded TTP prisoners must
be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from the tribal
areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must
agree to impose Sharia law on the entire country. It turned out that
Sharif did secretly order the release
of 19 Taliban militants from jail, in order to appease the
TTP leadership, and those released militants are presumably out
somewhere killing more civilians.

The airport attack is being seen as a message that there is no chance
of "peace" between Pakistan's government and the Taliban. They got
their people out of jail, and they really can't hope to get anything
more, so now they're continuing with violence.

Although Karachi is far away from Pakistan's federally administered
tribal area (FATA), the airport attack is having a major effect there.
The airport attacks have triggered fears that Pakistan's army will
launch a new campaign against militants in the FATA, and reports
indicate that in North Waziristan, some 25,000 to 50,000 people,
mostly women and children, fearing violence from an imminent army
attack. and AFP and Bloomberg

****
**** Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan
****

In a separate incident, as many as 23 people were killed when a
suicide bomber stormed a hotel where about 300 Shia pilgrims were
staying. The incident took place in the town of Taftan in
Balochistan, on Pakistan's border with Iran. The attack came when a
convoy of 10 buses stopped at two hotels. The buses were carrying the
pilgrims returning from a visit to Shia holy sites in Iran, stopping
for a rest in Taftan. There were two suicide bombers, but only one of
them was able to detonate himself. The terror group Jeish Al-Islam
claimed responsibility.

Numerous Taliban groups have been attacking Shia Muslims in
Balochistan for years, and Iran's government has been extremely
critical of Pakistan for not stopping these attacks.
Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ) has publicly and firmly announced as its goal
the extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been
methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. On
January 21, LeJ blew up a bus of Shia pilgrims returning from Iran,
killing 24.

Presumably, Sunday's incident was the last straw for Iranian
officials. After this incident, Iran closed its border with Pakistan
for an indefinite period, and all activities pertaining to travelling
and trade have been suspended. Pakistan Tribune and Fars News (Tehran)

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough
****

One of the most fascinating comparisons to come out of Generational
Dynamics theory is Iran today with America in the 1960s, at times when
the countries were in respective generational Awakening eras, with the
rise of young generations following the last crisis war. In 1960s
America, the generations of traumatized survivors of the horrors of
World War II were determined to prevent anything like that from
happening again, so they adopted conservative social policies and
fought to stop the communists in Vietnam. The generations that grew
up after the war had no patience with these austere policies were
widespread. The generational conflict climaxed with the resignation
of President Nixon in 1974.

Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, which climaxed in 1988 with
Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons. During the last decade,
I've reported frequently on the political clashes between the elders,
the war's traumatized survivors, and the young people who do not like
restriction on clothing and dating, who love Western tastes and
fashion, and who do not particularly want to sea Israel pushed into
the sea. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who is
definitely a traumatized war survivor, constantly expresses concerns
about the younger generation. In an address over the weekend, he said
the following:

<QUOTE>"Individuals who moved with sharp revolutionary
motivation have now changed their views by 180 degrees, and the
meaning of the Revolution is incomprehensible to them and we must
be vigilant so these characteristics do not penetrate the
University’s Jihad complex.

“The revolutionary path of University Jihad must be preserved. It
must not be allowed for this important scientific center to be
influenced by the political maze of 'leftists' and
'right-wingers.'

The production of destructive atomic bombs, is one hundred percent
against humanity."<END QUOTE>

Just as America's generational split was settled with the resignation
of Richard Nixon, Iran's generational split will finally be settled
with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is now 74 years old.
AEI Iran Tracker

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Karachi, Nawaz Sharif,
Jinnah International Airport, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Mahatma Gandhi,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Hakimullah Mehsud,
Federally administered tribal area, FATA, North Waziristan,
Iran, Taftan, Balochistan, Lashkar-e-Janghvi, LeJ,
Jeish Al-Islam, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Xenakis mentions war with china but call anyone who emphasizes the primacy of naval and air forces in such a conflict, like in the war with imperial japan as being naïve. Xenakis consistently implies a Chinese war would not be a primarily naval based but a ground war, and not one in which a nuclear exchange occurs in which America spends several years rebuilding infrastructure and building a ground army followed by a ground invasion of what is left of china, but an eastern front style war fought on US soil. The reason most posters consider Xenakis to be a nut is not that he predicts a war with china, but because does not predict a naval based war fought with carriers, fleets and nuclear missiles deployed against enemy fleets and forward bases by the combatants. Instead he seems to be predicting a land war on US soil; A "red dawn" scenario is not logistically plausible, especially given that he also implies china would be fully occupied with Russia, India, and japan. China being repulsed in Taiwan and japan and elsewhere in battles that would stretch them to the limit logistically, yet somehow they are able to invade the united states, Like Germany invaded Russia in ww2, as if the pacific ocean and the first, second and third island chains don't exist.

I wrote half seriously and half jokingly (and full of irony) that Donetsk was the new Fulda. That may well end up being true for Europe (or some other place in the Eastern European borderlands). For Asia, Chiang Mai is the new Fulda. While I agree that a land war with China / the SCO in the Americas may be a less likely scenario, a land war between the SCO and NATO/reconstituted SEATO/et al in Asia is a distinct possibility. Look at all the autobahns China is building, and they are thinking more about logistics than tourism and commerce.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan
• Tens of thousands of families flee homes in Pakistan's tribal area
• Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan
• Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough

****
**** Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan
****


Police display confiscated suicide vests and heavy weapons brought in by the terrorists. In the foreground are the dead bodies of the terrorists in white sacks (AP)

Taliban militants dressed as security forces stormed the Jinnah
International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday night and Monday
morning, and at least 30 people, including 10 heavily armed gunmen,
were killed in a battle that ran for six hours. Security forces
announced on Monday morning that the attack had come to an end,
but gunfire and bomb blasts continued to be heard into Monday
evening.

Jinnah International Airport is the largest and most prestigious
airport in Pakistan. It's named after Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the
founder of Pakistan. Jinnah is revered in Pakistan, for his work with
Mahatma Gandhi to bring about Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the
Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. When Gandhi was killed
by a Hindu extremist in February, 1948, Jinnah called him "one of the
greatest men produced by the Hindu community." Jinnah himself died
later that year of tuberculosis.

Pakistanis are expressing outrage that the militants were able to
bring into the airport a huge arsenal of suicide vests, grenades and
rocket launchers, without being detected by any airport security.
Express Tribune (Pakistan) and BBC and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** Tens of thousands of families flee homes in Pakistan's tribal area
****

Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) has claimed credit for the
attack. The spectacular Karachi airport attack comes at a time when
the Taliban itself is having problems. (See "29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two"
) The TTP claimed that
the airport attack was revenge for an American drone strike in
November 2011 that killed Hakimullah Mehsud, at that leader of the
TTP, whose death led to the split.

In recent months, Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif has been pursuing "peace
talks" with TTP. This pursuit was always something of a joke (like
the Mideast "peace talks") because the TTP demanded TTP prisoners must
be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from the tribal
areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must
agree to impose Sharia law on the entire country. It turned out that
Sharif did secretly order the release
of 19 Taliban militants from jail, in order to appease the
TTP leadership, and those released militants are presumably out
somewhere killing more civilians.

The airport attack is being seen as a message that there is no chance
of "peace" between Pakistan's government and the Taliban. They got
their people out of jail, and they really can't hope to get anything
more, so now they're continuing with violence.

Although Karachi is far away from Pakistan's federally administered
tribal area (FATA), the airport attack is having a major effect there.
The airport attacks have triggered fears that Pakistan's army will
launch a new campaign against militants in the FATA, and reports
indicate that in North Waziristan, some 25,000 to 50,000 people,
mostly women and children, fearing violence from an imminent army
attack. and AFP and Bloomberg

****
**** Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan
****

In a separate incident, as many as 23 people were killed when a
suicide bomber stormed a hotel where about 300 Shia pilgrims were
staying. The incident took place in the town of Taftan in
Balochistan, on Pakistan's border with Iran. The attack came when a
convoy of 10 buses stopped at two hotels. The buses were carrying the
pilgrims returning from a visit to Shia holy sites in Iran, stopping
for a rest in Taftan. There were two suicide bombers, but only one of
them was able to detonate himself. The terror group Jeish Al-Islam
claimed responsibility.

Numerous Taliban groups have been attacking Shia Muslims in
Balochistan for years, and Iran's government has been extremely
critical of Pakistan for not stopping these attacks.
Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ) has publicly and firmly announced as its goal
the extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been
methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. On
January 21, LeJ blew up a bus of Shia pilgrims returning from Iran,
killing 24.

Presumably, Sunday's incident was the last straw for Iranian
officials. After this incident, Iran closed its border with Pakistan
for an indefinite period, and all activities pertaining to travelling
and trade have been suspended. Pakistan Tribune and Fars News (Tehran)

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough
****

One of the most fascinating comparisons to come out of Generational
Dynamics theory is Iran today with America in the 1960s, at times when
the countries were in respective generational Awakening eras, with the
rise of young generations following the last crisis war. In 1960s
America, the generations of traumatized survivors of the horrors of
World War II were determined to prevent anything like that from
happening again, so they adopted conservative social policies and
fought to stop the communists in Vietnam. The generations that grew
up after the war had no patience with these austere policies were
widespread. The generational conflict climaxed with the resignation
of President Nixon in 1974.

Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, which climaxed in 1988 with
Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons. During the last decade,
I've reported frequently on the political clashes between the elders,
the war's traumatized survivors, and the young people who do not like
restriction on clothing and dating, who love Western tastes and
fashion, and who do not particularly want to sea Israel pushed into
the sea. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who is
definitely a traumatized war survivor, constantly expresses concerns
about the younger generation. In an address over the weekend, he said
the following:

<QUOTE>"Individuals who moved with sharp revolutionary
motivation have now changed their views by 180 degrees, and the
meaning of the Revolution is incomprehensible to them and we must
be vigilant so these characteristics do not penetrate the
University’s Jihad complex.

“The revolutionary path of University Jihad must be preserved. It
must not be allowed for this important scientific center to be
influenced by the political maze of 'leftists' and
'right-wingers.'

The production of destructive atomic bombs, is one hundred percent
against humanity."<END QUOTE>

Just as America's generational split was settled with the resignation
of Richard Nixon, Iran's generational split will finally be settled
with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is now 74 years old.
AEI Iran Tracker

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Karachi, Nawaz Sharif,
Jinnah International Airport, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Mahatma Gandhi,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Hakimullah Mehsud,
Federally administered tribal area, FATA, North Waziristan,
Iran, Taftan, Balochistan, Lashkar-e-Janghvi, LeJ,
Jeish Al-Islam, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

The "terrorists" and "Taliban" in Baluchistan and who jumped down the Karachi may actually be Russians (or forces recruited by them). Note similarities between the Ops in Pakistan and Ops in Eastern Ukraine.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

I wrote half seriously and half jokingly (and full of irony) that Donetsk was the new Fulda. That may well end up being true for Europe (or some other place in the Eastern European borderlands). For Asia, Chiang Mai is the new Fulda. While I agree that a land war with China / the SCO in the Americas may be a less likely scenario, a land war between the SCO and NATO/reconstituted SEATO/et al in Asia is a distinct possibility. Look at all the autobahns China is building, and they are thinking more about logistics than tourism and commerce.

Why on earth would NATO fight China? I can imagine US and Aussies/NZ having issues. Maybe India on that side in some scenario. If that happened, Europe would gtfo of NATO.

China has land issues in Siberia and Arctic waters that abut Russian interests. But again, that's not NATO.

I think you are still thinking the Beltway is the center of the West, when the US has taken the first baby steps to decisively parting ways with Europe. Elections matter. Culture matters. Even rude sound bytes matter. "F the EU." You think nobody heard that? It can be like the little butterfly's wing fluttering in Edward Lorenz's weather simulations.

Posters here often discuss the Africanized/Latin creole culture and sensibility emerging in the US. That's not European, it's something new and post colonial. Strong Affirmative Action programs in all aspects of life with a goal of correcting economic inequality and historical race relations makes the US much more like ANC South Africa than anything else.

Even the "white" American caste/subculture ("whiteness" itself is an American colonial concept - not really native European) is un-Classical or even anti-Classical in its ethos and aesthetic. More commercial and excessively verbal or (from a European point if view) tending to be somehow garish and jarring visually and musically. Too mercantile and money oriented, lacking any foundation and trying to hide it with brashness and superficial cant. Antithetical to the simple understated beauty of the harmonious whole that is the basis of the European Classical aesthetic.

All these cultural forces plus geopolitics will split the "bastard child" America from its parent Europe. America will go its own willful way, more and more as time goes on. Whether the prodigal sons and daughters of America ever turn back - at least some of them - remains to be known.

For slightly different reasons, the overseas Anglosphere (Aussie/NZ) will find itself orphaned along with Britain. Hard to say there, but they too will drift away from Europe. Maybe build meta regional alliance with India and other friendly partners.

Europe will tire of being ruled by English Economic Libertarian (they call it Neoliberal over there) plutocrats and seek new allies. France as leader of S Europe is diverging from N Europe, but those cards are still in play. Europe will become very weak and potentially subject to Russia if it continues to waffle and wobble and play into a panoply of small nationalisms.

Russia will have to decide if it is "Eurasian" or European. Right now it has a divided mind on this matter. Economic and social/historical forces are pulling her into a Eurasian role. Some Russians might look West (some already are - not just in the English/American libertarian sense - but in terms of European cultural roots and preserving them - looking for allies who share those ideas and feelings). But there is more money and power in the east - hence the divided Russian soul.

Some Israelis also are think of new friendships based on future situations, I'm sure. If they look, they will find friends, maybe (very) unexpected ones. This is the 21st century. Time for new things.

*** 11-Jun-14 World View -- Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand's military junta uses sexy 'army girls' to change minds
• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS
• Iraq's president Nouri Al-Maliki declares state of emergency

****
**** Thailand's military junta uses sexy 'army girls' to change minds
****


Thailand junta's 'army girls' pose for a photo

The coup d’état by Thailand's army on May 22 overthrew the government
of Yingluck Shinawatra but did not, as feared, lead to massive street
protests. Nonetheless, for 2/3rds of the population that supported
Yingluck, Thailand is no longer the stereotypical "land of smiles."

But the military junta is hoping to bring back some smiles by adopting
a public relations campaign led by sexy "army girls," wearing short
camouflage-style dresses and ammunition belt-style dog collars.
The girls will sing and dance, and will host street parties
with free food and music.

Thailand has imposed martial law, and anyone opposing junta rule risks
being jailed. But whether playing to one Bangkok stereotype, the "sex
capital of the world" will bring about a return to the other
stereotype, "land of smiles," remains to be seen. Bangkok Post and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS
****

The jihadist Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has taken
control of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, after Baghdad.
Some 1300 ISIS fighters besieged the city, and took control of it in
four days, as members of Iraq's army dropped their weapons and fled.
The opened the jails and freed 2,400 prisoners.

Mosul is a major strategic prize for ISIS, being on the main export
route for Iraqi oil, and a sophisticated center for transportation and
commerce. Mosul is the second large city to fall to ISIS, the first
being Fallujah in January. ISIS now controls a wide swath of land
extending deep into Syria to the west and deep into Iraq to the east.
Al-Qaeda has been trying for years to take control of an entire
country, to mimic Iran's Great Islamic Revolution that created a
hardline Shia Muslim state. Al-Qaeda has tried to create a hardline
Sunni Muslim state in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia,
Mali and others, but they've never succeeded. But now ISIS is
succeeding where al-Qaeda has failed, by creating an as-yet unnamed
Islamic state straddling Syria and Iraq. (ISIS is not part of
al-Qaeda, from which it was ejected for not following orders in
Syria.) CNN and
Reuters

****
**** Iraq's president Nouri Al-Maliki declares state of emergency
****

In a move of desperation, Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki
declared a national state of emergency on Tuesday, after the
fall of Mosul, and granted himself dictatorial powers.

Nouri al-Maliki has been president of Iraq since 2006, but has seen
Iraq fall apart since the Americans withdrew in December 2011. The
Shia leader practically declared war on the Sunnis immediately after
the withdrawal. He ordered the arrest of 13 of the bodyguards of
Sunni vice president Tareq al-Hashemi, leading several Sunni blocs in
the parliament to boycott the government, causing the government to be
destabilized.. Al-Maliki continually isolated the Sunnis, who are a
minority in the population, and now he's paying the price for it.
There were new elections held a couple of months ago, but a
new government has not yet been formed because of the political
chaos.

There are so many terrorist bombings in Iraq on an almost daily basis
that they often don't even make the news outside of Iraq. But in
fact, the number of deaths has been increasing almost every month
since the Americans' withdrawal. In May alone, about 800 people were
killed in terrorist bombings.

During the Iraq war under President George Bush, the American army
pressed very had to pacify the Sunni tribal chiefs and populations.
President Bush's surge succeeded not just because additional troops
were being sent in, but because the entire surge program was geared
towards getting the Sunnis in Anbar province to expel Al-Qaeda in
Iraq. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007.)

Before he became president Barack Obama bitterly opposed the surge
that led to victory in Iraq. After he became president, his only
policy was to withdraw as quickly as possibly, with no concern for a
relationship with the Sunnis, or with getting al-Maliki to develop a
relationship with the Sunnis.

So it's not surprising today that there are many reports that
the disaffected Sunnis in Anbar Province, the same ones that
drove jihadists out in 2007, are now joining with the jihadists
to oppose al-Maliki's government. This has been a major factor
in the growing strength of ISIS in Anbar Province, on the border
with Syria.

The other major factor in the growth of ISIS is the war in Syria.
With no leadership from American to stop them, and especially with the
major flip-flop after the chemical weapons "red line" was crossed last
year, many Sunnis in Syria have come to believe that their only hope
is to join ISIS in fighting Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. As
I've written many times, Syria has become a magnet for jihadists
around the world, and is now the world's biggest training ground for
jihadists.

(The news this week is that Hillary Clinton says that as Secretary of
State she favored helping the opposition rebels, in the beginning,
before ISIS had a chance to form. I've always said that Clinton would
have been a much better president than Obama, because she knows
something about what's going on in the world, while Obama doesn't have
a clue. And John Kerry, the current Secretary of State, is as dumb as
a doorknob.)

All the Mideast trends I've been talking about for years are coming
together. From Pakistan to Syria, we see the growth of Sunni
militias, and possibly armies, while we see Shia militias grow in
Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Syria. ISIS is continuing to spread and gain
strength, and a number of analysts believe Jordan will be its next
target. BBC and Bloomberg and CS Monitor


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Bangkok, Yingluck Shinawatra,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Mosul, Fallujah, Iran, Nouri al-Maliki,
Tareq al-Hashemi, Anbar province, Syria, Bashar al-Assad

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For what it's worth, the Arab word al-Sham, which is in the name of the group you are talking about, corresponds to a slightly larger region than that of the state of modern Syria.

The historic geographic region of Syria or Greater Syria (often called Syria-Palestine or the Levant in modern literature, and Sham [ʃaːm] in traditional Arabic and Islamic literature) is usually defined as an area to the East of the Mediterranean Sea, West of the Euphrates River, North of the Arabian Desert and South of the Taurus Mountains.^[1] The classical Arabic name for Syria is Sham (Arabic: الشام‎ ash-Shām or al-Shām, also Cham under French influence).

So while places like Mosul that are on the Tigris are a little out of area, the region that ISIS is operating in could roughly be described as al-Sham. Particularly when you consider that the name Iraq traditionally referred to the lower Mesopotamia, as well as the part of Iran now known as Khuzestan.

Alternatively, one could try Al-Jazira, or even Dulaim, for the largest tribe in the region.

*shrug*

The region has a lot of history. There are a lot of options for them to choose from, assuming that they or someone like them succeeds in displacing the present group of states.

*** 12-Jun-14 World View -- ISIS and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi sweep across Iraq, capture Tikrit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS sweeps across Iraq, captures Tikrit
• The collapse of Iraq's army
• What next for ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi?

****
**** ISIS sweeps across Iraq, captures Tikrit
****


Families in massive traffic jam fleeing Mosul on Tuesday (Reuters)

Iraqi citizens are panicking as the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) continued its sweep across Iraq on Wednesday, capturing another
city, Saddam Hussein's home town Tikrit, the day after capturing
Mosul, a city with 1.6 million people.

At the same time, over half a million people have fled their homes in
Mosul, either becoming homeless refugees or hoping to be taken in by
family members elsewhere. The exodus surged out of concerns that
Mosul would quickly run out of food and gasoline and, according to
several reports, out of fear that the Baghdad government will begin
bombing Mosul, as he bombed cities in Anwar Province earlier.

Iraq's desperate Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared on
television on Wednesday and ordered all military leaders who deserted
their positions to be court-martialed. He also called on Shia
militias to go out and fight the Sunni ISIS. This is essentially a
call to sectarian war.

Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr whom readers may remember played
a prominent role in opposing American forces in 2003 after
Saddam Hussein's army had been quickly defeated, responded
immediately to al-Maliki's call, saying:

<QUOTE>"We’re ready to coordinate with some government
entities to set up Al Salam Brigades to defend things that are
sacred."<END QUOTE>

These Shia militias will have to face an ISIS that is an order of
magnitude stronger than it was just a week ago, having gained momentum
from the successful attacks on several villages and cities and, most
important of all, having taken control of more than 200 U.S.-provided
armored vehicles and masses of weaponry from stores in Mosul. It
would not be unexpected if Iran supplies weapons and fighters to
al-Sadr, just as it has to Syria and Hezbollah. Bloomberg and CNN

****
**** The collapse of Iraq's army
****

What astonishes most people is that a lightly armed group of about
1,000 ISIS fighters was able to overrun Mosul. Government forces in
Mosul included two army divisions, numbering up to 25,000 soldiers,
along with 10,000 federal police officers and some 30,000 local police
officers. Amazingly, reports indicate that all of these security
officers dropped their weapons and fled, leaving the city open to
ISIS.

A lot of this can be explained from generational theory. Iraq's last
generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, climaxing
in 1988 with Saddam's use of chemical weapons, so Iraq is no in a
generational Awakening era. Iraq's army fought brutally at that time,
as all armies do during a generational crisis war, and are considered
by many to have won the war. However, once the crisis war reaches a
climax, people look back at the horrors and atrocities -- the enemy's
and their own -- and they vow never to let that happen again. For
America after World War II, that's why there was so much revulsion
toward the Korean War in the 1950s, and so much opposition to the
Vietnam war in the 1960s and 1970s.

So by the time of the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam's troops had little or no
fight in them, and they lost quickly. That was still true in the 2003
ground war, and it's true today as the Sunni population has no will to
fight against the ISIS invaders. According to several reports,
positions in Iraq's army and security forces are among the best paid
jobs available in Iraq today, and so many young men get these
positions through bribery and corruption, and under the assumption
that they won't have to do much fighting.

In the 2004-2008 time frame, I wrote many times about the
unwillingness of Iraqis to fight. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from
April, 2007.) I quoted a letter from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the
Jordanian terrorist who ran the al-Qaeda in Iraq, apparently for Osama
bin Laden:

<QUOTE>"Jihad here unfortunately [takes the form of] mines
planted, rockets launched, and mortars shelling from afar. The
Iraqi brothers still prefer safety and returning to the arms of
their wives, where nothing frightens them. Sometimes the groups
have boasted among themselves that not one of them has been killed
or captured. We have told them in our many sessions with them that
safety and victory are incompatible, that the tree of triumph and
empowerment cannot grow tall and lofty without blood and defiance
of death, that the [Islamic] nation cannot live without the aroma
of martyrdom and the perfume of fragrant blood spilled on behalf
of God, and that people cannot awaken from their stupor unless
talk of martyrdom and martyrs fills their days and nights. The
matter needs more patience and conviction. [Our] hope in God is
great."<END QUOTE>

One of the most remarkable features of the Iraq war at that time is
the there were no Iraqi suicide bombers. Fathers and mothers refused
to let their sons become martyrs in this way. As a result, al-Zaquawi
had to import young men from Saudi Arabia and Jordan to blow
themselves up and become martyrs.

A few years have passed since then, and there's a new generation of
Iraqis growing up, with no personal memory of the Iran/Iraq war, but
there are still too many survivors around to be willing to risk
fighting another war. So the Iraqi people of Mosul simply flee, and
the Iraqi soldiers of the army drop their weapons and do the same
thing. Al Monitor (Washington) and Bloomberg

****
**** What next for ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi?
****

The same war-weary Sunni population that drove the foreign fighters in
Al-Qaeda in Iraq out of Anbar Province in 2007 are now completely
disillusioned by the contempt directed at them both by the American
administration led by Barack Obama, and by the contempt directed at
them by the Shia al-Maliki government. The hearts and minds
that the George Bush administration had won over to the American
side are now willing to join ISIS as their only hope to improve
their lives. At least they're unwilling to oppose ISIS.

This gives ISIS's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi a vision of turning Iraq
into a hardline Sunni Islamic state. With the help of old supporters
of Saddam Hussein, as well as other young men willing to join the
fight, al-Baghdadi has Baghdad in his sights. Saddam was able to
govern Iraq and its Shia majority by means of terror and torture, and
al-Baghdadi may believe he can do the same. This will be alarming to
Iran, which will not sit still and just let it happen. Debka



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tikrit, Nouri al-Maliki,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Moqtada al-Sadr, Saddam Hussein, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah,
Iran/Iraq war, Gulf War, Iraq war, Anbar Province,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al-Qaeda in Iraq

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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

For Asia, Chiang Mai is the new Fulda. While I agree that a land war with China / the SCO in the Americas may be a less likely scenario, a land war between the SCO and NATO/reconstituted SEATO/et al in Asia is a distinct possibility. Look at all the autobahns China is building, and they are thinking more about logistics than tourism and commerce.

Why would Chiang Mai be a new Fulda, that area is in Thailand, a country that does not border china. I Think you meant Cao Bang, which is the main strategic artery of the Sino-Vietnamese border zone, which does border china.

*** 13-Jun-14 World View -- President Obama considers military action in Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sunday's attack on Pakistan airport signals terror tactical shift
• President Obama considers military action in Iraq
• Foreign exchange price fixing will exceed libor scandal in criminality

****
**** Sunday's attack on Pakistan airport signals terror tactical shift
****


Smoke rises on Monday morning after the assault on Karachi's airport (AFP)

The terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday did not
achieve its primary objective of hijacking an aircraft and holding its
passengers hostage. Nonetheless, it represents a more sophisticated
kind of attack, following the model of previous major attacks that
were more like complex military actions. One is Mumbai's '26/11' three-day terrorist attack
in 2008, and another is the three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall
in Nairobi Kenya, in
September of last year.

Apparently there had been Taliban sleeper cells planted in Karachi
weeks or months before. These cells provided shelter, weapons,
explosives, transport and intelligence to the terrorists who
eventually carried out the attack. As in the other cases,
there were a series of well-planned attacks designed to defeat
and kill layers of security and take control of the target.

It's no longer a "simple" case of a suicide bomber walking into a
shopping center or mosque to kill as many people as possible. Now
there are more complex objectives, with huge financial rewards to fund
future projects.

Pakistan's government now has to face some hard realities. The "peace
talks" with the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), which has
claimed credit for the attack, were never more than a joke anyway, but
they did provide a fig leaf to hide government officials' desperation.
The TTP is headquartered in Pakistan's tribal area, but analysts point
out that the army has only made half-hearted attempts to defeat them
there, not being willing to go in and clean out the hideouts and
weapons stores that are making the terrorist strikes possible.
Dawn (Pakistan) and Indian Express

****
**** President Obama considers military action in Iraq
****

President Obama is facing a dilemma about responding to the collapse
of what he considered a major achievement, ending the war in Iraq.
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has executed a "blitzkrieg"
in Iraq, giving it control of huge swaths of land, millions of dollars
of money stolen from banks, and huge volumes of heavy weapons stolen
from weapons stores. When combined with ISIS's control of parts of
neighboring Syria, ISIS is on the verge establishing a new "Sunni
Islamic Caliphate" nation, bounded on the west by Bashar al-Assad's
rump Syria, and bounded in the east by Nouri al-Maliki's rump Iraq.
It's not certain that ISIS will be able to indefinitely hold all this
territory, but if it does, then the territory will serve as a base for
terrorist and military attacks on other nations.

According to President Obama at a press briefing on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"Well, this is an area that we’ve been watching with a
lot of concern not just over the last couple of days but over the
last several months, and we’ve been in close consultation with the
Iraqi government. Over the last year, we have been providing them
additional assistance to try to address the problems that they
have in Anbar, in the northwestern portions of the country, as
well as the Iraqi and Syrian border. That includes, in some
cases, military equipment. It includes intelligence assistance.
It includes a whole host of issues.

But what we’ve seen over the last couple of days indicates the
degree to which Iraq is going to need more help. It’s going to
need more help from us, and it’s going to need more help from the
international community.

So my team is working around the clock to identify how we can
provide the most effective assistance to them. I don’t rule out
anything, because we do have a stake in making sure that these
jihadists are not getting a permanent foothold in either Iraq or
Syria, for that matter.

Part of the challenge ... is that the politics of Shia and Sunni
inside of Iraq, as well as the Kurds, is either going to be a help
in dealing with this jihadist situation, or it’s going to be a
hindrance. And frankly, over the last several years, we have not
seen the kind of trust and cooperation develop between moderate
Sunni and Shia leaders inside of Iraq, and that accounts in part
for some of the weakness of the state, and that then carries over
into their military capacity.

So I think it’s fair to say that in our consultations with the
Iraqis there will be some short-term, immediate things that need
to be done militarily, and our national security team is looking
at all the options. But this should be also a wakeup call for the
Iraqi government. There has to be a political component to this
so that Sunni and Shia who care about building a functioning state
that can bring about security and prosperity to all people inside
of Iraq come together and work diligently against these
extremists. And that is going to require concessions on the part
of both Shia and Sunni that we haven’t seen so far.

The last point I’ll make -- what’s happened over the last couple
of days I think underscores the importance of the point that I
made at my West Point speech: the need for us to have a more
robust regional approach to partnering and training partner
countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa. We’re not
going to be able to be everywhere all the time, but what we can do
is to make sure that we are consistently helping to finance,
train, advise military forces with partner countries, including
Iraq, that have the capacity to maintain their own security. And
that is a long and laborious process, but it’s one that we need to
get started."<END QUOTE>

Phrases like "there will be some short-term, immediate things that
need to be done militarily," and "There has to be a political
component to this so that Sunni and Shia who care about building a
functioning state that can bring about security and prosperity to all
people inside of Iraq come together and work diligently" indicate to
me that President Obama still doesn't have a clue what's going on in
the world.

There's a great deal of fury growing against President Obama.
Statements like "American blood drove al-Qaeda out of Iraq, and Obama
has squandered all of it," or "I fought in Afghanistan, and Obama has
given the worst of the worst of the Taliban a free pass" are
increasingly common. White House

****
**** Foreign exchange price fixing will exceed libor scandal in criminality
****

Britain's government is proposing legislation to punish
foreign exchange rigging with criminal sanctions, including
prison.

This is another case where bankers from different banks colluded with
one another to defraud their customers making currency conversions
from one currency to another. One banker would call his pal at
another bank to let him know that some client was about to exchange,
say, $10 billion for euros. The two bankers would collude on
front-running and setting the exchange rate so that when the
transaction went through, a few minutes later, the bankers could
pocket hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Readers may recall the Libor scandal that began a couple of years
ago, where bankers would collude with one another to fix interest
rates. Those actions may have cost clients hundreds of millions
of dollars, but the foreign exchange market is much bigger,
$5.3 trillion, and clients may have lost hundreds of billions of
dollars over the years.

It's now been over ten years that Gen-X "financial engineers"
flooded into banks and knowingly created tens of trillions
of dollars of fraudulent synthetic securities backed by
faulty subprime mortgages, and not a single one has gone to jail.
The worst that happens is that the bank gets fined. But the
individual crooks who caused the global financial crisis keep
the millions of dollars that they gained fraudulently, and
are free to go on in their jobs to find other ways to
defraud investors. The Libor scandal proves that.

Now we're going through the same process again, with the
foreign exchange price-fixing scandal. Supposedly,
UBS will pay $8 billion in fines, Deutsche Bank AG will
pay $4.4 billion, and Citibank will pay $4.3 billion.

Supposedly, this time is different because legislation is being
proposed to make foreign exchange fixing a criminal activity. But
defrauding clients is already a criminal activity. All of the
fraudulent activities of these bankers is criminal activity. The
problem is not the laws, but that the criminals are rewarded by
letting them keep their money, and they're not prosecuted and sent to
jail. AFP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Jinnah International Airport,
Mumbai, Kenya, Nairobi, Westgate Mall,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Iraq, Syria,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Libor, foreign exchange, Generation-X

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Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> For what it's worth, the Arab word
> al-Sham,
> which is in the name of the group you are talking about,
> corresponds to a slightly larger region than that of the state of
> modern Syria.

> So while places like Mosul that are on the Tigris are a little out
> of area, the region that ISIS is operating in could roughly be
> described as al-Sham. Particularly when you consider that the
> name Iraq
> traditionally
> referred to the lower Mesopotamia, as well as the
> part of Iran now known as Khuzestan.

> Alternatively, one could try
> Al-Jazira,
> or even Dulaim,
> for the largest tribe in the region.

> *shrug*

> The region has a lot of history. There are a lot of options for
> them to choose from, assuming that they or someone like them
> succeeds in displacing the present group of states.

As you suggest, from the point of view of the mainstream media, the
naming of this group is completely chaotic. Some media call it ISIL,
others ISIS, some refer to Syria or the Levant or al-Sham. At some
point, the mainstream media will settle on one name that we can all
use. In a press briefing today, Obama called it ISIL. Months ago, I
tried to finesse the problem by referring to "The Islamic Emirate in
Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL)," which was kind of an
ironic way of covering all the bases. I finally gave that up in the
main articles, because it was too clunky, but I still use something
like that in the keywords at the end. Now, I just use whatever
version of the name seems to strike the right mood on any given day.

By the way, a couple of days ago I heard a commentator on BBC say that
al-Sham refers to Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel and Kuwait. So
the meaning of that term also seems to differ from person to person.

While the English name varies, the name in Arabic is consistently the same. I tend to use ISIS, because the "s" can stand for two of the three options, and it reminds me of Archer.

Back before Islamism became the main show for Arabs discontent with the status quo, there was a greater Syria movement that included all of those places, drawing on the maximum extent of the Assyrian empire.

Like I said, there's a lot of history to choose from.

By the way, let's not forget the name "DAESH," which I've seen and
heard on several occasions in the mainstream media.

http://pietervanostaeyen.wordpress.c...q-and-as-sham/

*** 14-Jun-14 World View -- U.S. and Iran move to help Iraq's al-Maliki stop ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran and Iraq's al-Sistani call for sectarian war in Iraq
• Obama caught be surprise, discussing military options in Syria
• U.S. State Dept. confirms Russian tanks in Ukraine

****
**** Iran and Iraq's al-Sistani call for sectarian war in Iraq
****


Sheikh Abdulmehdi al-Karbalai, spokesman for Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, delivers statement on Friday calling on followers to fight ISIS

The "blitzkrieg" attack by the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) on cities and villages across Iraq is panicking residents of
Baghdad as the fighting draw near. Most of the cities captured by
ISIS so far have large Sunni Muslim populations that are disaffected
and furious because of the contemptuous treatment they've received
from the government of Shia president Nouri al-Maliki, and because of
their abandonment by the US forces that they worked hard with to drive
out Al-Qaeda in Iraq during the 2007 Anbar Awakening.

Now that those same Sunni populations are joining with ISIS, to the
extent that even Sunni soldiers in Iraq's army are deserting their
posts, Shia populations in Baghdad and eastern Iraq are panicking. On
Friday, the Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most
powerful Shia cleric in Iraq, issued a statement calling on his
followers to fight ISIS. The statement was delivered in a sermon
by his spokesman Sheikh Abdulmehdi al-Karbalai:

<QUOTE>"All citizens who are able to bear arms and fight the
terrorists in defense of their nation, people and holy sites
should volunteer and join the security forces to achieve this holy
aim.

Iraq is facing a grave and significant challenge and the
terrorists aim not only to control some of the provinces but
instead they stated that they are targeting all the provinces,
especially Baghdad and Karbala and Najaf. Thus the responsibility
of stopping them and fighting is the responsibility of all and is
not restricted to any one creed."<END QUOTE>

The statement added that anyone who sacrifices his life "in defense of
his country, people, and honor, will be a martyr."

Reports indicate that young men from Shia communities have begun to
mobilize and form militias, although Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
is calling on followers to wait for further instructions.

At the same time, there are reports that Iran is sending weapons and
advisers from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) to aid the
Shia government. IRGC leader Major General Qassem Suleimani is in
Baghdad to meet militia leaders and tribal chiefs defending the
capital.

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani promised that Iran would "not allow
the supporters of terrorists to disrupt security and stability of Iraq
through exporting terrorism to Iraq."

This is essentially a call to sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias
within Iraq. These is already a sectarian war next door in Syria, and
this effectively joins the two together. LA Times and BBC and
International Business Times

****
**** Obama caught be surprise, discussing military options in Syria
****

According to an unnamed U.S. official in President Obama's
administration speaking to CNN, they were caught off guard by the
speed with which the ISIL forces moved across Iraq:

<QUOTE>"We've been watching the intelligence continually and
the fractures in Iraq that have grown as a result of the
underlying political environment and lack of inclusive governance.
If anything was surprising, it's only the speed at which the
situation continued to deteriorate over the past few days and the
apparent ease at which the (Iraqi security forces) abandoned their
units and positions."<END QUOTE>

On Friday, President Obama made his second statement about Iraq in two
days:

<QUOTE>"Yesterday, I convened a meeting with my National
Security Council to discuss the situation there, and this morning
I received an update from my team. Over the last several days,
we’ve seen significant gains made by ISIL, a terrorist
organization that operates in both Iraq and in Syria. In the face
of a terrorist offensive, Iraqi security forces have proven unable
to defend a number of cities, which has allowed the terrorists to
overrun a part of Iraq’s territory. And this poses a danger to
Iraq and its people. And given the nature of these terrorists, it
could pose a threat eventually to American interests as
well."<END QUOTE>

He said that the administration would be preparing military options,
but emphasized that no troops will be sent into Iraq. Analysts have
suggested that these options include drone surveillance and air
strikes, and possibly limited actions by special forces.

He added that the government of Nouri al-Maliki would have to do its
part to set aside sectarian differences:

<QUOTE>"So we have enormous interests there, and obviously
our troops and the American people and the American taxpayers made
huge investments and sacrifices in order to give Iraqis the
opportunity to chart a better course, a better destiny.

But ultimately, they're going to have to seize it. As I said
before, we are not going to be able to do it for
them.

And, you know, given the very difficult history that we've seen in
Iraq, I think that any objective observer would recognize that in
the absence of accommodation among the various factions inside of
Iraq, various military actions by the United States, by any
outside nation, are not going to solve those problems over the
long term and not going to deliver the kind of stability that we
need."<END QUOTE>

In response, al-Maliki blamed President Obama for flip-flopping
on Syria, and allowing the Syrian civil war to spill over
into Iraq.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I can guarantee
that this kind of "accommodation" among the Sunni and Shia
faction will NOT occur. So what will Obama do then? Answer:
Faced with an increasingly powerful ISIS, the U.S. military will
get more heavily drawn into Iraq and Syria.

It was almost ten years ago that I predicted, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis, that Iran and the U.S. would become allies in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. I've repeated that
prediction dozens of times. Ten years ago that prediction seemed
intuitively ludicrous, but now we see that it's coming true. For two
years, America has been pulling away from its old ally, Saudi Arabia,
and it coming closer to its new ally, Iran.

This is how these trend predictions work. Ten years ago, all I could
tell you was the trend. I could not have predicted any of the
details, such as an ISIS succeeding in a "blitzkrieg" attack across
Iraq that caught the Obama administration by surprise. But that's how
it always happens. It's like a pressure cooker on a stove. You can
identify the trend -- that the pressure was getting higher and higher.
You could predict that, at some point in the future, the pressure will
be so great that the pressure cooker has to explode, but you can't say
when. Then when it finally happens, there's no time to do anything,
and if you happen to be standing next to it, then you're dead.

The same is true of many other Generational Dynamics predictions that
I've posted over the years. I can tell you with 100% certainty that a
major financial crisis and stock market crash are coming, but I can't
tell you when. But when it happens, almost all your stock market
savings will be lost. And the crash will happen so quickly that you
won't be able to do a thing about it. Only the bankers who caused the
financial crisis in the first place will get their money out quickly.
Everyone else will lose. CNN and Washington Post

****
**** U.S. State Dept. confirms Russian tanks in Ukraine
****

As clashes continue in east Ukraine between Ukraine's security
forces and pro-Russian separatists, video have emerged of
Russian tanks and weapons coming across the border from
Russia. On Friday, the U.S. State Dept. confirmed this:

<QUOTE>"In the last three days, a convoy of three T-64 tanks,
several BM-21 or Grad multiple rocket launchers and other military
vehicles crossed from Russia into Ukraine near the Ukrainian town
of Snizhne. This is unacceptable. We are confident that these
tanks came from Russia."<END QUOTE>

AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Nouri al-Maliki, Ali al-Sistani,
Sheikh Abdulmehdi al-Karbalai, Moqtada al-Sadr,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, Qassem Suleimani,
Hassan Rouhani, Syria, Saudi Arabia,
Ukraine, Russia

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** U.S. State Dept. confirms Russian tanks in Ukraine
****

As clashes continue in east Ukraine between Ukraine's security
forces and pro-Russian separatists, video have emerged of
Russian tanks and weapons coming across the border from
Russia. On Friday, the U.S. State Dept. confirmed this:

<QUOTE>"In the last three days, a convoy of three T-64 tanks,
several BM-21 or Grad multiple rocket launchers and other military
vehicles crossed from Russia into Ukraine near the Ukrainian town
of Snizhne. This is unacceptable. We are confident that these
tanks came from Russia."<END QUOTE>

AP

As is your demonstrated custom, John, here you lie again. Or, at least, uncritically pass along others' lies as the truth (as if that were different).

Picture 7, Ukrainian army T-64 in action

Those tanks are manufactured (as they have been since their inception) by UkrSpekEksport, located all this time In Kharkiv, Ukraine (a place firmly under the control of the Kiev government), and are actively in service in the Ukrainian army.

This, whereas the Russian army scrapped their few remaining T-64s several years back.

So the only possible source for those tanks is Ukraine, not Russia.
How, then, did the separatists get them? That's easy if you are interested in reality instead of lies. Cast your minds back to the distant past of almost a whole week ago. That's when the [self-declared] People's Republic of Lugansk media arm made the announcement that, as a result of an engagement with Ukrainian forces, it had managed to capture a significant amount of military hardware, including three T-84 tanks (with pictures). Naturally, Kiev refused to comment on it, but it sure as hell looks a lot like those Lugansk guys might have been telling the truth again there.

Quite unlike you.

I'd ask that you quit lying, but that's obviously a hopeless case. So I'll content myself with shining a light on your lies when I can.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

As is your demonstrated custom, John, here you lie again. Or, at least, uncritically pass along others' lies as the truth (as if that were different).

Picture 7, Ukrainian army T-64 in action

Those tanks are manufactured (as they have been since their inception) by UkrSpekEksport, located all this time In Kharkiv, Ukraine (a place firmly under the control of the Kiev government), and are actively in service in the Ukrainian army.

This, whereas the Russian army scrapped their few remaining T-64s several years back.

So the only possible source for those tanks is Ukraine, not Russia.
How, then, did the separatists get them? That's easy if you are interested in reality instead of lies. Cast your minds back to the distant past of almost a whole week ago. That's when the [self-declared] People's Republic of Lugansk media arm made the announcement that, as a result of an engagement with Ukrainian forces, it had managed to capture a significant amount of military hardware, including three T-84 tanks (with pictures). Naturally, Kiev refused to comment on it, but it sure as hell looks a lot like those Lugansk guys might have been telling the truth again there.

Quite unlike you.

I'd ask that you quit lying, but that's obviously a hopeless case. So I'll content myself with shining a light on your lies when I can.

Dear Justin,

I realize English is your second language, and that you sometimes
have difficulty understanding simple declarative sentences
in English, but if you reread the paragraph that you quoted,
then you'll see that I didn't lie, and I never lie.

What I said was that the State Dept confirmed that there were Russian
tanks in Ukraine. That story was reported many times on Friday, in
different places. In TV coverage, I saw video of the State
Dept. spokewoman saying so, along with Nato officials also confirming
it. So I wasn't saying that there were Russian tanks in Ukraine. I
was accurately quoting other sources.

Now let's turn to the underlying claims.

I'm actually very careful about this stuff, although you never
seem to notice. On May 30 I wrote this story:

** 30-May-14 World View -- Missile attack on Ukraine helicopter portends a bigger conflict
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...30.htm#e140530

In that story I wrote the following paragraph:

Originally Posted by John X

> The ground-to-air missile that brought down the helicopter may or
> may not have been supplied by Russia. Ukraine itself is a
> manufacturer of many kinds of weapons, so there are multiple
> possible sources where the rebels could have obtained this weapon.

However, in yesterday's story, there were no such reports, only
confirmations that they were Russian tanks. Furthermore, I assume
that both the State Dept. and Nato checked out the stories about T-64s
that you've referenced before issuing those confirmations.

In fact, Nato has released images to support their claims:

http://aco.nato.int/statement-on-rus...tle-tanks.aspx

So it seems that I could believe you, Putin and Lavrov, the latter who
have been caught in multiple lies, and who are war criminals supplying
weapons to genocidal monster al-Assad. Or I could believe the State
Dept. and Nato and the published images. I choose the latter in this
case.

But I'll try to use smaller words next time, so it will be easier for
you to understand.

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

... I didn't lie, and I never lie.

As I said, the less charitable alternative is that you simply eat uncritically the lies of certain others. If that's how you prefer, the end result is the same.

What I said was that the State Dept confirmed that there were Russian
tanks in Ukraine. That story was reported many times on Friday, in
different places. In TV coverage, I saw video of the State
Dept. spokewoman saying so, along with Nato officials also confirming
it.
However, in yesterday's story, there were no such reports, only
confirmations that they were Russian tanks. Furthermore, I assume
that both the State Dept. and Nato checked out the stories about T-64s
that you've referenced before issuing those confirmations.

In fact, Nato has released images to support their claims:

http://aco.nato.int/statement-on-rus...tle-tanks.aspx

Lies, easily and thoroughly debunked. And yet, because they are asserted by the known, demonstrated liars (that is, the "Iraqi WMD", "aluminum tubes", "mobile biolabs", "vial of powdered milk at the UN", etc, etc,etc State Department; and the "Russian troops massing", "Russian troops not pulling back", "missile defense in Poland aimed only at Iran" NATO mouthpieces) that you prefer, you imagine they hold any weight at all. These organs are, again, known, demonstrated liars, the extent of whose untrustworthiness in every word they utter is bounded only by our capacity to hear the sounds they make.

So it seems that I could believe you, Putin and Lavrov, the latter who
have been caught in multiple lies, and who are war criminals supplying
weapons to genocidal monster al-Assad.

Putin and Lavrov? Indicate to me exactly where in the myriads of proof demolishing these latest State Department lies those two guys had a word to say. Was it the CNN report? The AP piece? Did they hack the website of the Ukrainian armaments factory? When liars contradict liars, the truth is reached not by simply picking one set of liars over the other, but in seeking actual, genuine fact from as many non-liar sources as possible and exercising critical judgement in assessing it. You should try it sometime; it's not as effortless as just mindlessly swallowing whatever pap is puked into your mouth, but it gets better results.


And as a final sad note, you wreck your own credibility regurgitating yet again your favored epithet, "genocidal". As refers to the Syrian government and its head, much electrons have been spilled here by more than just myself making it quite clear that you have, at best, no idea what you are talking about at all... but more likely, simply a total disregard for the correspondence of the things you say to mere reality. I suppose it's a spice that fits in well with the rest of the stew you're brewing up here.

*** 15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
• U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
• Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49

****
**** Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
****


Large crowds of Shie volunteers in Baghdad prepared to fight ISIS (BBC)

Here's a Saturday afternoon BBC interview with Professor Fawaz Gerges,
London School of Economics, that I transcribed, in which both the
interviewer and the interviewee expressed utter astonishment at the
day's news:

<QUOTE>INTERVIEWER: "Let's start with Iran. Now they say
they're willing to cooperate with the United States. I can't
believe those words are coming out of my mouth. What would be the
motivation behind that? They do simply fear ISIS, and what could
happen to Iraq? ..."

GERGES: "One of the most important developments to come out of
this particular crisis is the convergence of interests of the
United States and Iran. Both powers have vested interests in
stopping the ISIS surge. Iraq is the most pivotal ally of Iran.
And the United States fears that ISIS could really present a
threat not only to Iraq's integrity, but for regional stabilities.

I cannot believe it myself. The Iranian leadership OPENLY and
PUBLICLY calling on the United States to intervene in Iraq. A
radical departure from Iran's previous position.

Remember, Chris, for your viewers, Iran played a fundamental role
in nudging its allies to force the US out in 2011. Now, both
powers -- and I have no doubt in my mind that both powers are
talking secretly. Even now, both powers are not talking about it,
because they're planning contingency plans, because only the
United States and Iran could regroup and help the Iraqi forces to
consolidate that power."<END QUOTE>

What they were talking about is a speech by Iran's president Hassan
Rouhani saying that they would help the U.S. confront "terrorist
groups" in Iraq and Syria, referring principally to the Islamic
Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). According to Rouhani:

<QUOTE>"If the Iraqi government asks us for help, we may
provide any assistance the Iraqi nation would like us to provide
in the fight against terrorism.

All countries need to embark on joint effort regarding terrorism.

At the moment, it's the government of Iraq and the people of Iraq
that are fighting terrorism.

We have not seen the US do anything for now. Any time the
Americans start to take action against terrorist groups, we can
consider that."<END QUOTE>

There are reports that Iran has already sent two battalions of
troops into Iraq, though they deny it.

President Obama is offering to help Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki
with the U.S. military, but with "no boots on the ground." The
aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush has been moved into the Persian Gulf
to provide Obama with options for possible airstrikes.

We now have a sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict growing in the
Mideast, and it looks like Iran and the U.S. are going to be allies.
Reports indicate the White House have been "surprised" by how quickly
all of this is happening. Obviously the White House doesn't read my
web site, because these are all things that I've been predicting for
years, based on Generational Dynamics analyses.

The Generational Dynamics web site is unique in the world. I'll
repeat the challenge that I've issued repeatedly since 2005: Find me a
politician, analyst, journalist or web site anywhere in the world with
anything close to the predictive success of Generational Dynamics and
this web site. I know that none exists, because I've looked.

So those of you on both the left and the right who have send me hate
mail from time to time should be aware that you're wrong and I'm right
-- or more precisely, Generational Dynamics is right. Anyone can have
an ideological opinion and rant about it, but Generational Dynamics is
not an ideological opinion, but a methodology that applies System
Dynamics and Chaos Theory to generational trends and flows, and always
seems to be right.

I'm completely schizophrenic about this. The part of me that's into
math and computers and analytics is thrilled that Generational
Dynamics seems to work consistently. But the part of me that's human
and deals every day with stories about starving children, schools
blown to smithereens, and "industrial strength" torture is extremely
saddened and depressed. I have little doubt that one day, undoubtedly
after my death, Generational Dynamics will be regarded as a major
advance in historical analysis. BBC and
Independent (London)

****
**** U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
****

The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), the
measure of how much wholesale prices are increasing, fell 0.2% in May,
indicating that wholesale prices fell, rather than increasing. That
is, instead of seeing inflation, we're seeing deflation. Once month's
data isn't necessarily dispositive, but the PPI has been close to zero
for months, and gone negative four times in the last year.

The prediction that I've been making for years is that the economy is
in a deflationary spiral. This directly contradicts almost all
mainstream economists and politicians who have been predicting
inflation or hyperinflation because of low interest rates and
quantitative easing. As in the case of Iran being our ally in a
Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict, Generational Dynamics has been
consistently right and mainstream economists, pundits, analysts and
politicians have been wrong. Bloomberg and Reuters

****
**** Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49
****

Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko vowed to retaliate against
pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine, after a military plane was
shot down by a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, presumably
supplied by Russia, killing 49 people on board on Saturday morning.

The missile attack triggered a pro-Ukrainian protest in Kiev that
turned violent. Several hundred protesters hurled eggs and paint at
the Russian embassy in Kiev, and other protesters turned over cars
that carried diplomatic plates. Kiev police looked on and did nothing
to stop the violent protests.

The fighting continues to escalate in Ukraine, thanks to tanks, heavy
weapons and "volunteers" supplied by Russia. Ukraine and Russia are
in a generational Crisis era, so it's quite possible that the conflict
will spiral into a full-scale war. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Nouri al-Maliki,
Fawaz Gerges, producer price index, deflation,
Ukraine, Russia, Petro Poroshenko

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear Justin,

I realize English is your second language, and that you sometimes
have difficulty understanding simple declarative sentences
in English, but if you reread the paragraph that you quoted,
then you'll see that I didn't lie, and I never lie.

What I said was that the State Dept confirmed that there were Russian
tanks in Ukraine. That story was reported many times on Friday, in
different places. In TV coverage, I saw video of the State
Dept. spokewoman saying so, along with Nato officials also confirming
it. So I wasn't saying that there were Russian tanks in Ukraine. I
was accurately quoting other sources.

John, I've actually met Justin. He is born and bred in the good ole US of A and has a firm command of the English language, speaking it without any tell-tale accent. Semantics is not the cause of the disagreement between you two gentlemen.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

John, I've actually met Justin. He is born and bred in the good ole US of A and has a firm command of the English language, speaking it without any tell-tale accent. Semantics is not the cause of the disagreement between you two gentlemen.

Thanks. Good to know!

John