*** 16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold
• Senator Lindsey Graham says Obama has to order air strikes in Iraq
• Rep Steve Stockman: U.S. planning a military operation to rescue the schoolgirls from Boko Haram
• Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban

****
**** The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold
****


ISIS militants kill Iraqi soldiers after forcing them to lie in trenches

Here's a collection of facts that I gleaned from the Sunday news talk
shows and from some media reports:

• The Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is by far the
  most powerful and wealthiest terror group in the world now, much more
  powerful than al-Qaeda before 9/11.
  
• ISIS has about $450 million in cash, after raiding the central
  bank in Mosul. This is in addition to billions of dollars' worth of
  dozens of tanks, humvees, helicopters, and other heavy weaponry,
  mostly American, that they got from weapons stores in Mosul that the
  Iraqi army was supposed to be guarding.
  
• The tanks and helicopters are being driven and flown by former
  Sunni officers in Saddam Hussein's army, who have now joined with
  ISIS, out of disillusionment with and fury at the al-Maliki's
  government.
  
• ISIS has set up jihadist training camps in Syria, and thousands of
  foreign fighters have gone there for training and to fight the regime
  of Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad. Syria is an
  international jihadist magnet, as we've been reporting for over a
  year.
  
• On May 24, a gunman entered the Jewish Museum in Brussels and shot
  three people dead, wounding a fourth. It turned out that the
  perpetrator had been trained in Syria, and had spent a year fighting
  there. Thousands of young men from Europe have gone to Syria for
  jihadist training, as have almost 100 Americans.
  
• These jihadists are much more dangerous than foreign-born
  terrorists, like those who perpetrated 9/11, because they have clean
  American passports, and can come and go as they please. Homeland
  Security now considers these ISIS-trained jihadists to be America's
  biggest domestic threat. Not only could more people die than on 9/11,
  but ISIS could bring worldwide economic chaos.
  
• Within the space of a few days, ISIS marched south in Iraq,
  capturing Mosul, Baiji, Tikrit and parts of Samarra. That's about 200
  miles in a few days.
  
• At the same time, they captured 1,700 Iraqi soldiers who
  surrendered. ISIS has posted videos showing what happened to the ones
  in Tikrit. They were put into trucks, taken to a desert area, forced
  to march into trenches that had been dug, and then shot.
  
• Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki seems to have been successful in
  getting new army volunteers, almost all Shias from southern Iraq.
  
• ISIS has been stopped about 60 miles north of Baghdad. The army
  seems to have stopped ISIS at that point, at least temporarily.
  
• The citizens of Baghdad are in a state of total panic because they
  believe they're next. The city is in chaos.
  
• There are thousands of Americans and Westerners living in Baghdad.
  They are going to be targeted.
  
• Baghdad has the largest American embassy in the world, with 1500
  employees. Some unspecified number of those employees are being
  evacuated to Irbil, Basra and Amman Jordan.
  
• As the situation worsens in Iraq, President Obama is going to be
  under enormous pressure to intervene militarily. Air strikes are a
  possibility, but to be effective they need someone on the ground to
  pick out target. If the Iraqis do that, then they may target
  political enemies rather than ISIS. Or maybe we can let Iranian
  forces pick out targets for us. If Iraq really begins to deteriorate,
  there will be a lot of pressure on Obama to send in some troops, at
  least special forces.
  
• Obama has made any American military involvement contingent on
  al-Maliki resolving the bitter political dispute between Shias and
  Sunnis. That's not going to happen. It sounds like Obama is in yet
  another "red line" situation. What's he going to do next?

LA Times and Israel National News and Slate

****
**** Senator Lindsey Graham says Obama has to order air strikes in Iraq
****

I listened to numerous interviews on the Sunday morning news talk
shows, and I felt the best one was the CNN interview with South
Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham:

<QUOTE>DONNA BASH: And, Senator, on the issue of Iraq, I know
that you have said that you think U.S. airstrikes is the only
answer right now. But I want you and our viewers to look at
something, the toll so far when it comes to Iraq, 4,424 deaths,
wounded, 32,239, and then the cost of money, $770 billion. I have
got to ask the question that I'm sure so many Americans out there
watching are going to ask. Why spend one more dollar or risk one
more life?

GRAHAM: Because Iraq and Syria combined are going to be the
staging area for the next 9/11 if we don't do something about it.
The people holding ground in Iraq also hold ground in
Syria. Economic instability that comes from a collapsed Iraq will
affect gas prices and our economic recovery. But the main reason
is, if ISIS is not dealt with, that's the staging area for a new
attack on the United States. They -- the -- the predecessor --
they're the follow-on to al Qaeda in Iraq.

What they will do is use the area between Baghdad, Kurdistan and
Syria to operate with impunity. They have a lot of wealth. They
will plan an attack against our country. And my biggest fear is
that they're going to march toward Jordan.

And I hope America understands that, if the king of Jordan goes,
if he's the victim of these guys, then the whole Mideast is in
turmoil.

BASH: And you really thinks that's possible?

GRAHAM: Yes.

GLORIA BORGER: What makes -- what makes you think they have the
organization to pull something like that off?

GRAHAM: What makes you think they don't?

Look what's happened. Look what's happened. They have basically
occupied a portion of Syria. They -- they took the second largest
city in Iraq. They're going into Baghdad.

My number one goal is, let us stop them from going into Baghdad,
not the Iranians. If the central government in Iraq collapses --
and that's their goal -- they're trying to get the Iraqi
government to collapse -- the Iranians dominate the south. They
will own all the resources in the south.

These guys will operate from Baghdad to Kurdistan, all the way
into Syria. They will consolidate economic and military
power. They will march towards Jordan and Lebanon. And they will
use that space to attack us. If Baghdad falls, if the central
government falls, a disaster awaits us of monumental proportions.

BASH: Now, the question about the leadership there now, Prime
Minister Maliki, he is somebody who perhaps has not done all the
things that the U.S. should have -- wanted them to do, which is, I
think, an understatement.

GRAHAM: Yes.

BASH: So is he the right man for the -- to lead Iraq right now?

GRAHAM: No. Stop the march on Baghdad. Form a new government. Send
Petraeus and Crocker over, somebody who knows...

BORGER: How do you form a new government? It's a democracy.

GRAHAM: There are plenty of voices over there.

He [al-Maliki] should resign. He's incapable of bringing the
Sunnis back into the fold. Three things have happened in 2010 and
'11 to create this. How did we get there should be the
question. Al Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor to ISIS, was on their
back, just about gone. Syria blows up. They get reinforcements
from Syria into Iraq.

Maliki withdrawals from the coalition. He becomes a sectarian
leader. Obama's administration is completely hands-off, and we
withdraw troops in 2011. That's the perfect storm.

BORGER: But whose fault was that? You know, the...

GRAHAM: That's President Obama's fault.

BORGER: Why is that President Obama's fault? Maliki didn't want to
leave a residual force there.

GRAHAM: Bush -- no, that is not true. That is absolutely a lie.

I was there on the ground, at the request of Secretary
Clinton. Maliki, Barzani and the Sunnis were willing to accept an
American force. We wanted the agreement to go through parliament,
which would have been a disaster.

They got what they wanted. The Obama administration wanted to say:
I ended the war in Iraq. I'm going to end the war in Afghanistan.

This was as predictable as the sun rising in the east. I blame
President Obama mightily for a hands-off policy when it comes to
Iraq.

BASH: Because, I mean, we can debate this probably for a long
time, because Maliki...

GRAHAM: Look forward.

BASH: OK. So, looking forward, Iran, Bloomberg News had an
interesting op-ed today, saying that they are sort of the
frenemies of the U.S. right now in Iraq. And people might not
realize this, that Iran, who is generally no friend of the U.S.,
is now potentially working -- going to work with the U.S. on Iraq.
... How -- does that make you feel comfortable or comfortable?

GRAHAM: No. Hell no, it doesn't.

Why did we deal with Stalin? Because he was not as bad as
Hitler. The Iranians can provide some assets to make sure Baghdad
doesn't fall. We need to coordinate with the Iranians. And the
Turks need to get in the game and get the Sunni Arabs back into
the game, form a new government without Maliki.

But, yes, I don't want Iran to dominate Iraq. And that's where
they're headed. If the central government falls, the Iranians are
going on the Shia area of -- of Iraq, the south. Don't the
Iranians save Baghdad. Let us save Baghdad, so there will be a
chance at a second government.

BORGER: Do you -- is it your prediction that, eventually, this
White House will go for airstrikes?

GRAHAM: I think they have to. And it's stunning to me that nobody
in Congress is saying, you have got to come to us first. Everybody
in Congress is scared to death of what's going to happen in
Iraq. They won't come out and admit it. But nobody is saying,
Mr. President, don't use airpower. The air force in Iraq, I think,
has been grounded. But Nic will know that better than I
do.<END QUOTE>

CNN

****
**** Rep Steve Stockman: U.S. planning a military operation to rescue the schoolgirls from Boko Haram
****

A U.S. Congressional delegation is in Nigeria to discuss the terrorist
group Boko Haram, which continues to abduct schoolgirls. According to
Texas congressman Steve Stockman, the U.S. is planning military action
in Nigeria:

<QUOTE>"We get briefed by the military and pending the
approval of the government of Nigeria and our government, we plan
to take action, but I don’t think we are going specifics this
time; it was a classified briefing. We stand ready to help and as
soon as our government and Nigerian government approves, we will
take action.

What I want to say is that I think what it is right now is to work
with the Nigerian government in training of the military. I want
to emphasize again here that we have come all these miles to say
that our Congress stands ready to cooperate and the government in
a manner that is appropriate and with the consent of Nigerian
government. And I want to emphasize the need for the Victims
Relief Fund because there is so much suffering going on by the
young girls and the their families that have been touched by this
violence."<END QUOTE>

World Stage Group (Lagos, Nigeria)

****
**** Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban
****

Last week's massive terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday
has shocked the nation, and pressured the government to order the army
to do something it's never done before: to go in and clean out the
hideouts and weapons stores in the North Waziristan Agency in
Pakistan's tribal area that are making the terrorist strikes possible.

According to a Pakistan army statement:

<QUOTE>"On the directions of the government, armed forces of
Pakistan have launched a comprehensive operation against foreign
and local terrorists who are hiding in sanctuaries in North
Waziristan Agency. The operation has been named Zarb-e-Azb. ...

Using North Waziristan as a base, these terrorists had waged a war
against the state of Pakistan and had been disrupting our national
life in all its dimensions, stunting our economic growth and
causing enormous loss of life and property. They had also
paralyzed life within the [North Waziristan] agency and had
perpetually terrorized the entire peace loving and patriotic local
population.

Our valiant armed forces have been tasked to eliminate these
terrorists regardless of hue and color, along with their
sanctuaries. With the support of the entire nation, and in
coordination with other state institutions and law enforcement
agencies, these enemies of the state will be denied space anywhere
across the country. As always, armed forces of Pakistan will not
hesitate in rendering any sacrifice for the
motherland."<END QUOTE>

An unnamed official says, "Thousands of troops will participate in
this action. You can roughly say 25,000 to 30,000 troops will be
involved in the operation."

Reports indicate that many people, both civilians and militants, have
left North Waziristan in the last few days because the army offensive
was anticipated.

The prime minister Nawaz Sharif has tried everything possible to avoid
this moment, including attempted "peace talks" with the Taliban that
could never have succeeded. This is a very significant change in
direction for Pakistan. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, Syria,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Irbil, Basra, Amman, Lindsey Graham,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Steve Stockman,
Karachi, Pakistan, North Waziristan, Zarb-e-Azb,
Nawaz Sharif, Taliban

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*** 17-Jun-14 World View -- U.S. sending 275 troops back into Iraq to protect embassy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kenya suffers worst terrorist attack since Westgate Mall attack
• Syrian warplanes strike inside Iraq
• U.S. sending 275 troops back into Iraq to protect embassy

****
**** Kenya suffers worst terrorist attack since Westgate Mall attack
****


Burnt out cars after orgy of violence in Mpeketoni Kenya

The Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab is claiming responsibility for
an "orgy of violence" on the town of Mpeketoni, on the coast of Kenya
about 25 miles from the Indian Ocean, killing 50 people. The
terrorist attack particularly targeted a group of soccer fans who were
together at a venue showing the World Cup matches. This was the worst
terrorist attack since the three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall
in Nairobi Kenya, in September
of last year, for which al-Shabaab also claimed responsibility. Like
the Westgate mall attack, and like last week's attack terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi, Pakistan, the attack was well
planned and sophisticated, as al-Qaeda linked terrorist attacks
generally exhibit greater complexity and sophistication. Standard Media (Kenya) and Reuters

****
**** Syrian warplanes strike inside Iraq
****

Syrian warplanes struck two separate convoys belonging to the Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) inside of Iraq. The Syrian planes
struck on Saturday with the help of Iranian intelligence, according to
sources. Apparently we're now allies of the Syria's president, the
genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad. Fox News

****
**** U.S. sending 275 troops back into Iraq to protect embassy
****

President Obama notified Congress on Monday that about 275
U.S. military personnel are deploying to Iraq to provide support and
security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Obama
also said the troops are equipped for combat and will remain in Iraq
until the security situation becomes such that they are no longer
needed. The White House is considering other military options, and is
having discussions with Iran. USA Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Mpeketoni, Somalia, al-Shabaab,
Nairobi, Westgate Mall, Syria, Iraq, Iran

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*** 18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq accuses of Saudi Arabia of sponsoring ISIS and 'genocide'
• Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq
• Iraq in the 1930s generational Awakening era
• The next steps for Iraq
• Was the 2003 ground invasion of Iraq a mistake?

****
**** Iraq accuses of Saudi Arabia of sponsoring ISIS and 'genocide'
****


ISIS militants in Iraq (AFP)

Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki in the past has suggested that
Saudi Arabia is supporting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS),
but on Tuesday he used the strongest language ever:

<QUOTE>"We hold them responsible for supporting these groups
financially and morally and for its outcome - which includes
crimes that may qualify as genocide: the spilling of Iraqi blood,
the destruction of Iraqi state institutions and historic and
religious sites."<END QUOTE>

The Saudis vehemently deny this, but this is a sign of the gathering
sectarian conflict in the Mideast. Reuters and NBC News

****
**** Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq
****

Many politicians and journalists are expressing concern about a
possible "Sunni versus Shia civil war" within Iraq. This brings back
memories of the 2004-2008 period, when the loony left, including NBC
News and the NY Times, were using the threat of a civil war as a way
of expressing contempt for President George Bush. Now they're talking
about civil war again, but as a way of expressing sympathy for their
beloved President Barack Obama.

As I wrote dozens of times during that period, Iraq was and is in a
generational Awakening era, and so a civil war was and is impossible.
In the 2004-2008 period, there was some violence between Iraqi Sunnis
and Shias, but in the end, the two groups cooperated in expelling
al-Qaeda in Iraq via the "Anbar Awakening." I wrote about this in my
lengthy April 2007 analysis, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq",
which was the best and most accurate analysis of the Iraq war from any
media source at that time.

The key to understanding the relationships between Iraqi Sunnis and
Shias is to look at their last two generational crisis wars, the 1920
Great Iraqi Revolution, in which the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united
against Britain, and the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, in which the Iraq Sunnis
and Shias united against Iran. It's important to understand that the
1980s was was not a sectarian war between Shias and Sunnis; it was an
ethnic war between Arabs and Persians. So it's not surprising that in
2007, Shias and Sunnis united again to expel al-Qaeda in Iraq in the
Anbar Awakening.

There is SOME violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias, but there's a
huge difference between "some violence" and "full-scale civil war." A
major turning point in the Iraq war occurred when al-Qaeda in Iraq bombed the Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samarra in February, 2006.
This inflamed the
Shiites, who had previously been restrained, to the extent that they
began launching death squads against the Sunni jihadists. However, by
the beginning of 2007, that violence was tapering off.

This year's invasion of Iraq by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) has, once again, triggered some sectarian violence between
Iraqi Sunnis and Shias. However, in 2007, the sectarian violence was
being driven by al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the sectarian violence today is
being driven by ISIS. Many Iraqi Sunnis have joined the foreign
fighters in ISIS in this sectarian violence, but multiple reports
indicate that the Iraqi Sunnis are fighting against the government of
prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, not against Shias in general.

According to reports, the foreign fighters in ISIS are attempting to
impose strict Sharia law on Mosul and other captured cities. My guess
is that the Iraqi citizens are not going to like this.

****
**** Iraq in the 1930s generational Awakening era
****

If you want to understand Iraq today, a good place to start is in
Iraq's previous generational Awakening era, the 1930s, following the
1920 Great Iraqi Revolution. In my 2007 article, referenced above, I
quoted at length from the Library of Congress history of Iraq during
that period. It's well worthwhile to read that entire history, but
here I'll only quote a couple of excerpts.

First, here's what happened during the 1920 crisis war, which was a
rebellion against British rule:

<QUOTE>"Ath Thawra al Iraqiyya al Kubra, or The Great Iraqi
Revolution (as the 1920 rebellion is called), was a watershed
event in contemporary Iraqi history. For the first time, Sunnis
and Shias, tribes and cities, were brought together in a common
effort. In the opinion of Hanna Batatu, author of a seminal work
on Iraq, the building of a nation-state in Iraq depended upon two
major factors: the integration of Shias and Sunnis into the new
body politic and the successful resolution of the age-old
conflicts between the tribes and the riverine cities and among the
tribes themselves over the food-producing flatlands of the Tigris
and the Euphrates. The 1920 rebellion brought these groups
together, if only briefly; this constituted an important first
step in the long and arduous process of forging a nation-state out
of Iraq's conflict-ridden social structure."<END QUOTE>

Next, here's what happened during Iraq's generational Awakening era in
the 1930s:

<QUOTE>"On October 13, 1932, Iraq became a sovereign state,
and it was admitted to the League of Nations. Iraq still was beset
by a complex web of social, economic, ethnic, religious, and
ideological conflicts, all of which retarded the process of state
formation. The declaration of statehood and the imposition of
fixed boundaries triggered an intense competition for power in the
new entity. Sunnis and Shias, cities and tribes, shaykhs and
tribesmen, Assyrians and Kurds, pan-Arabists and Iraqi
nationalists--all fought vigorously for places in the emerging
state structure. Ultimately, lacking legitimacy and unable to
establish deep roots, the British-imposed political system was
overwhelmed by these conflicting demands."<END QUOTE>

This is a pattern that Iraq follows: During generational crisis wars,
when the survival of the nation and its way of life is at stake, the
Sunnis and Shias unite, and nationalism trumps sectarianism. (Think
of America in World War II.)

But during the political battles in the decades that follow the war
(think of America in the 1960s), sectarianism trumps nationalism, and
the country splits into sectarian and ethnic political battles.

That pattern is being repeated today. Iraqi Sunnis and Shias have
many bitter disagreements, but they unite when they have to.

****
**** The next steps for Iraq
****

Based on the above analysis, here's what I conclude:

• Talk of civil war is misguided. There will be no civil war in
  Iraq.
  
• Talk of splitting up Iraq into three countries (Shias, Sunnis and
  Kurds) is misguided. It would give ISIS the independent nation it
  wants. And anyway, that's not what the Iraqi Shias and Sunnis
  want.
  
• Nouri al-Maliki is a big problem. Iraqi reconciliation will
  require him to be gone, or to have a frontal lobotomy.
  
• Iraq and Iraq did not get along in the 1980s generational crisis
  war, so they won't get along very well now. And remember (because
  Iran remembers very well): Iraq used WMDs against Iran.
  
• As in the case of al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2007, it's the foreign
  fighters who have to be defeated. Eventually, the Iraqi Sunnis and
  Shias will unite against the foreign fighters.
  
• However, the crisis is considerably larger than Iraq. The entire
  Mideast is inflamed now along sectarian lines, because the war in
  Syria has been allowed dominate the entire region.
  
• In particular, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is a genocidal
  monster who has been carrying out a policy of "industrial strength"
  torture and extermination on his opponents, mostly Sunni civilians.
  This has turned ISIS into a "jihadist magnet," drawing would-be
  jihadists from around the world, including America and Europe.
  
• ISIS is exponentially more powerful than al-Qaeda in Iraq was,
  because ISIS has about $450 million in cash, and billions of dollars
  worth of captured American weapons.

In a sense, the sectarian war in Iraq is still a side show. The real
war continues in Syria, and the sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias
throughout the Mideast will be the real war.

****
**** Was the 2003 ground invasion of Iraq a mistake?
****

There's a lot of talk about who's to blame - Bush or Obama - for the
current debacle in Iraq. So to start with, let's point out that the
war in Iraq didn't begin in 2003. It began in 1991. And the Bill
Clinton administration had several major and highly visible run-ins
with Saddam Hussein over the latter's refusal to allow inspections for
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The Clinton administration was
bombing Iraq almost daily when Bush came into office.

The 2003 ground invasion did not occur because we felt bad for the
75,000 or so Iraqis that Saddam was killing every year. It occurred
because of a nationwide -- indeed, worldwide -- panic over Saddam's
WMDs. He had used them against Iran in 1988, and he had refused
United Nations inspections to determine whether he was still
manufacturing them, which only increased the sense of panic.

Some people like to point out that France's prime minister, Jacques
Chirac, said that Saddam had no WMDs. It's hard to understand how he
would know that, especially since there was some evidence that Saddam
himself didn't know he no longer had any stores of WMDs. But later
investigations revealed what was going on with Chirac.

Jacques Chirac, Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and U.N. secretary
general Kofi Annan were all implicated in skimming hundreds of
millions of dollars from Iraq's "Oil for Food" program. This was
discovered when a list of the corrupt officials was found in Iraq's
Oil Ministry after the war. In other words, Chirac, Putin and Annan
didn't care how many people were slaughtered by Saddam's WMDs; the
three of them were just cheap crooks that didn't want their corruption
to be discovered, no matter how many people were killed.

Finally, would have happened without the 2003 ground invasion? Former
British prime minister Tony Blair recently pointed out that Saddam
would also have been subjected to the 2011 Arab Awakening, like all
the other dictators in the region, and that the current turmoil would
have occurred anyway. But that isn't the worst of it.

Iran had already been victimized by Saddam's WMDs. If the U.S. had
simply backed out and let Saddam do what he wanted, then Iran would
have continued to believe that Saddam had stores of WMDs. Iran would
have sped up its nuclear bomb development program, and probably would
have developed chemical and biological weapons themselves. In that
case, within a few years, we would have had Syria, Iraq, and Iran, all
possessing weapons of mass destruction, and ready to use them.

So, whether you like the 2003 ground invasion or not, things would
have been MUCH worse without it.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, Saudi Arabia,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Anbar Awakening, Great Iraqi Revolution, Iran, Iran/Iraq war,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jacques Chirac, Vladimir Putin,
Kofi Annan, Tony Blair, Saddam Hussein

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The English Civil War/ 30 years War occurred during an Awakening. Last I checked, you think that Syria is in an Awakening era, so in what way does an Awakening preclude a civil war? Please note, when I ask this, I don't want you to merely repeat the claim, but to address the points raised above.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> The English Civil War/ 30 years War occurred during an
> Awakening. Last I checked, you think that Syria is in an Awakening
> era, so in what way does an Awakening preclude a civil war? Please
> note, when I ask this, I don't want you to merely repeat the
> claim, but to address the points raised above.

The English Civil War was a generational crisis war.

** 3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...03.htm#e110103

** Book 2 - Chapter 10 - Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning Model
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...2.tftmodel.htm

Uh, considering your new timeline has a 10 year awakening for the Glorious Revolution and a 50 year unraveling in the New World, I'm going to go ahead and just say no. No meaningful generations could emerge from turnings of that length, making the usage of T4T terminology meaningless. And Syria? Is Syria not in a Civil War.

Also curious how your principle of localization meshes with your insistence that Thailand's crisis must have been the events in Cambodia, despite their minimal participation in the same (yes, substantially less than Iceland or Sweden or Kansas in WWII, as has been addressed before). Did you ever look at the Thailand stuff posted already?

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Uh, considering your new timeline has a 10 year awakening for the
> Glorious Revolution and a 50 year unraveling in the New World, I'm
> going to go ahead and just say no. No meaningful generations could
> emerge from turnings of that length, making the usage of T4T
> terminology meaningless. And Syria? Is Syria not in a Civil War.

> Also curious how your principle of localization meshes with your
> insistence that Thailand's crisis must have been the events in
> Cambodia, despite their minimal participation in the same (yes,
> substantially less than Iceland or Sweden or Kansas in WWII, as
> has been addressed before). Did you ever look at the Thailand
> stuff posted already?

You can say "no" or whatever you want, but this was the subject of
extremely bitter arguments in the 2004-2007 time frame. If you want
to read the debate, go into the "Objections to Generational Dynamics"
thread. There's a great deal of blood on the floor, and I'd rather
eat mud than get into that debate again.

As for the 10 year awakening, or whatever you're talking about, I
assume you're referring to something I wrote in 2004. That stuff is
all long out of date.

There is no crisis civil war in Syria. It's evolved into a proxy war
between Russia + Iran + Hezbollah versus ISIS. Whatever Syrian vs
Syrian violence there is has become small compared to the proxy war
violence. If it weren't for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, and now ISIS
on the other side, the civil war would fizzle quickly.

As for Thailand, I thought you were going to actually do some of your
own research and do a real generational analysis, quoting multiple
sources, and post it, rather than just sit there and take pot shots at
me. I'm not your errand boy.

Anyway, here are a couple of articles I've read recently from the
point of view of Thailand's Communist Party. The first is a good
explanation how Chinese migrants turned into Thailand's elite, and
then turned against the indigenous Thai (ironically called Red
Shirts). The second one is a recent related news story.

http://links.org.au/node/1247

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014.../thai-j13.html

I'm sorry, you posted some links showing how you had decided that the ECW/30YW was a crisis war, implying that the glorious revolution was an awakening. The links provided showed that lasting 10 years, and further reading showed an Unraveling in the colonies that apparently lasted for 50 years. If you have since revised, that's cool, just working with the evidence you've provided.

So the distinction is that there can be no "crisis" civil war in Iraq due to its awakening era? That Syria's civil war doesn't properly count, because it is serving as a battleground for foreign agents, and the extreme violence shown is not really endogenous? Since Iraq is also receiving fighters and equipment from the same parties, wouldn't the same factors hold true for it as well? I understand the distinction you are trying to draw, but I can't help but feel it is something of a No True Scotsman argument.

As for the Thailand stuff, I'm kind of working through O Chem right now, but you never responded to these points, which I would kind of liked to see addressed first. Not asking for an essay, just for you to actually state your objections to this interpretation rationally as opposed to trying to insult me or make appeals to your age.

I don't really see how the Communist article actually does what you say it does. It shows that the leadership of the old Communist party was dominated by Chinese Immigrants, and that the ethnic homogenization that occurred in the wake of the events around WWII eroded the distinctively Chinese character of their descendants, and that the conflicts in the 70s were as much between Hmong hill tribes and people from Isan as they were Chinese and Thai. All of which are things that i mentioned before. We're still down to a debate between which of two 20 year periods (30-40 vs 70s-80s, roughly) counts as a Crisis and which as an Awakening.

I'd also like to see an actual link showing that the Red Shirts are revolting against the Chinese, preferably in a way that explains how they are doing so with almost exclusively Chinese leadership. As it stands, your claim is unsupported and doesn't make much sense. And if your explanation is going to include the claim that Awakenings suppress ethnic conflict, you're really going to have to explain what happened to race relations in America during the last one, or what's going on in Syria, or Iraq, etc.

Sorry, I don't have what you want. My intuition, and everything I've
read, says that the Cambodian war was a generational crisis war for
Thailand, but every time I try to track down the details, I get buried
in tons of details about Vietnam, Laos, various political factions,
alliances with China and the U.S., and a lot of evasion about what was
really going on. There have been a few wars that have been long,
time-consuming projects to evaluate (such as the War of the Spanish
Succession), and this appears to be one of them, so I don't have the
specific reference that I would like. I simply don't have multiple
hours and possibly days of time to spend on Thailand. I wish I did,
but I don't. So I'm going to stick with my intuition for now, which
has always served me very well in the past, and we can agree to
disagree. In the meantime, you can do your own research.

By the way, the current exodus of hundreds of thousands of Cambodians
from Thailand is a massive event that's going to be an echo of the
1970s war, but once again, everything I've read evades what's really
going on. Perhaps you can include that in your own research.

*** 19-Jun-14 World View -- Chinese and Vietnamese officials meet without smiling and agree on nothing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. is flying F-18 surveillance missions over Iraq
• Chinese and Vietnamese officials meet without smiling and agree on nothing
• Ebola unexpectedly surges again in western Africa

****
**** U.S. is flying F-18 surveillance missions over Iraq
****


F-18 Super Hornet attack aircraft

After send 375 special forces troops to Iraq earlier this week,
President Obama's administration has authorized F-18 surveillance
missions over Iraq. The administration has also received a request
from the Iraq's government to begin air strikes against targets from
the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). However, air strikes
would require special forces on the ground to identify targets.

F-18s are not traditional surveillance aircraft, but are attack
aircraft, and they're big and loud. It's believed that the intent is
to frighten the ISIS militants with a lot of noise. Fox News

****
**** Chinese and Vietnamese officials meet without smiling and agree on nothing
****

For years, China has been taking actions to annex the entire South
China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to
Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines.
China has been using a "salami slicing" strategy, annexing the South
China Sea bit by bit, threatening anyone who stands in its way with
military action. The confrontation between China and the Philippines
has gotten moderately worse in the last few months.

But the confrontation between China and Vietnam has become extremely
bitter in the last few months, after China set up an oil rig and
started drilling for oil in a region in Vietnam's exclusive economic
zone (EEZ). China and Vietnam have been ramming each other's ships,
and Chinese warships frequently train their high-pressure water hoses
on exhaust pipes, antennae, radars and windows of Vietnamese ships, in
order to disable to sink them. Last month, the oil rig triggered
anti-China demonstrations across Vietnam that turned violent,
killing five Chinese nationals and injuries to hundreds more.

So China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi visited Hanoi on Wednesday, to
meet with Vietnam's foreign minister Pham Binh Minh and prime minister
Nguyen Tan Dung, the media "expressed hope" that this would cool
things off.

So when Yang and Minh first met and shook hands, they did so with
only the faintest of smiles. According to Minh:

<QUOTE>"Our meeting ... demonstrates that the two parties and
states of Vietnam and China have the desire for dialogue to settle
the current complicated situation in the East Sea."<END QUOTE>

According to China's foreign ministry, Yang replied:

<QUOTE>"The most urgent thing is for Vietnam to stop its
interference and harassment, stop hyping up the issue and stop
whipping up disagreement to create new disputes, and properly deal
with the aftermath of the recent serious incidents of
violence."<END QUOTE>

China Daily and Thanh Nien News (Hanoi) and Reuters

****
**** Ebola unexpectedly surges again in western Africa
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) believed that the Ebola virus
breakout in Spring of this year had fizzled out, as there hadn't been
any new deaths from the virus since April. But in recent days, seven
people have died in Monrovia, Liberia's capital city. It's now
believed that Ebola is still spreading in west Africa, where the death
toll now exceeds 330. The outbreak began in Guinea, and later spread
to Sierra Leone and Liberia. The new deaths have spurred fears that
the outbreak is no longer under control, as authorities had previously
said. VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, F-18 Super Hornet,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
China, Vietnam, Yang Jiechi, Pham Binh Minh,
Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, Guinea,
Monrovia, Liberia, Sierra Leone

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According to Xenakis' theory as its currently constituted which says that no Major Wars can begin until the generations that participated in the major wars had died off (which takes about 60 years, for war or any other major event). According to this logic, there would have been no danger of WW3 breaking out for the remainder of the 20th century if, instead of reconstructing Germany after ww2, we instead merely pushed the Germans out of the territories they invaded but stopped at the German border in 1944 or early 1945 and left the Nazis in power. If you applied generational dynamics logic as his theory is currently constituted, Germany after ww2 would have remained peaceful until at least after 2000 or so even if that country had stayed Nazi.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> According to Xenakis' theory as its currently constituted which
> says that no Major Wars can begin until the generations that
> participated in the major wars had died off (which takes about 60
> years, for war or any other major event). According to this logic,
> there would have been no danger of WW3 breaking out for the
> remainder of the 20th century if, instead of reconstructing
> Germany after ww2, we instead merely pushed the Germans out of the
> territories they invaded but stopped at the German border in 1944
> or early 1945 and left the Nazis in power. If you applied
> generational dynamics logic as his theory is currently
> constituted, Germany after ww2 would have remained peaceful until
> at least after 2000 or so even if that country had stayed
> Nazi.

Where do you keep getting all this crap? You don't have the vaguest
clue about "Xenakis' theory." Speak for yourself, not for me.

*** 20-Jun-14 World View -- President Obama orders more U.S. military involvement in Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Warlord Suleiman becomes Iraqi Sunni anti-government spokesman
• President Obama orders more U.S. military involvement in Iraq
• Nato reports new Russian troop build-up on Ukraine's border

****
**** Warlord Suleiman becomes Iraqi Sunni anti-government spokesman
****


Sheik Ali Hatim Al-Suleiman

Sheik Ali Hatim Al-Suleiman is a warlord, Emir of the Dulaim tribe in
Iraq. And he's being quoted in media reports quite a bit and is
becoming the unofficial spokesman for all the Iraqi Sunnis who are
joining ISIS. the Dulaim tribe is one of the largest in Iraq, and
al-Suleiman was one of the warlords who sided with the Americans
against al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2007. Now he's disillusioned with the
government of president Nouri al-Maliki, and is joining with ISIS
against al-Maliki.

According to al-Suleiman:

<QUOTE>"It is the tribal rebels who are in control of the
situation in Mosul. It is not reasonable to say that a group like
ISIS, which has a small number of men and vehicles, could be in
control of a large city like Mosul. Therefore, it is clear that
this is a tribal revolution, but the government is trying to force
us all to wear the robe of the terrorists and ISIS.

The time for political solutions has passed. We will not permit a
political solution. Maliki has used all his strength against the
Iraqi people ... So how can there be a political solution? The
only solution is Maliki’s ouster.

“When we get rid of the government, we will be in charge of the
security file in the regions, and then our objective will be to
expel terrorism—the terrorism of the government and that of
ISIS."<END QUOTE>

Suleiman believes that Iraq is headed for partition:

<QUOTE>"The revolution does not belong to anyone, but the
tribal revolutionaries are the masters of the scene. Iraq is
heading towards partition. There are two choices; either Iraq
becomes a sea of blood, or each community rules itself. Central
government is not the solution. We do not want an Iraq that fails
to respect our dignity and religion."<END QUOTE>

I guess this is a possibility, but the Generational Dynamics historical analysis of Iraq
that I posted
two days ago indicates that it's unlikely. There are sectarian
differences in Iraq, but as I described at length, those differences
are far less significant than the Arab/Persian differences that
separate them from Iran. Partitioning Iraq would throw the Shias into
hands of Iran, and nobody wants that, as far as I can tell. It's true
that the Kurds want a separate Kurdistan, and they have wanted that
for over a century, but the Kurds control a lot of oil, so it's
unlikely that the Sunnis and Shias will agree to a Kurdish separation.
Washington Post and Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh)

****
**** President Obama orders more U.S. military involvement in Iraq
****

President Barack Obama set as his highest priority is to be able to
brag that he left office with all U.S. wars ended. Because his only
foreign policy doctrine was to be the anti-Bush, he's had one
disastrous foreign policy debacle after another. Now concerns are
being raised that there's another foreign policy debacle in the
making.

For the third time this week, Obama is announcing an increase in
America's re-involvement in Iraq. First, he sent 300 troops to
protect the embassy in Baghdad. Then word came of surveillance
flights over Iraq. Now, on Thursday, he's announcing 300 more troops,
to serve as "advisors," a phrase that I've heard many times in my
life. Here's his statement on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"Second, at my direction, we have significantly
increased our intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
assets so that we’ve got a better picture of what’s taking place
inside of Iraq. And this will give us a greater understanding of
what ISIL is doing, where it’s located, and how we might support
efforts to counter this threat.

Third, the United States will continue to increase our support to
Iraqi security forces. We’re prepared to create joint operation
centers in Baghdad and northern Iraq to share intelligence and
coordinate planning to confront the terrorist threat of ISIL.
Through our new Counterterrorism Partnership Fund, we’re prepared
to work with Congress to provide additional equipment. We have
had advisors in Iraq through our embassy, and we’re prepared to
send a small number of additional American military advisors -- up
to 300 -- to assess how we can best train, advise, and support
Iraqi security forces going forward.

American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq, but we
will help Iraqis as they take the fight to terrorists who threaten
the Iraqi people, the region, and American interests as well.

Fourth, in recent days, we’ve positioned additional U.S. military
assets in the region. Because of our increased intelligence
resources, we’re developing more information about potential
targets associated with ISIL. And going forward, we will be
prepared to take targeted and precise military action, if and when
we determine that the situation on the ground requires it. If we
do, I will consult closely with Congress and leaders in Iraq and
in the region."<END QUOTE>

With the remark that "American forces will not be returning to combat
in Iraq," it's not clear to me whether he's lying to the public or to
himself.

He also made demands of Iraqi leaders:

<QUOTE>"Above all, Iraqi leaders must rise above their
differences and come together around a political plan for Iraq’s
future. Shia, Sunni, Kurds -- all Iraqis -- must have confidence
that they can advance their interests and aspirations through the
political process rather than through violence."<END QUOTE>

But this is naive, for the historical reasons I gave two days ago
( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq"
, viz., Iraqi Sunnis and Shias will unite during a
generation crisis war against common enemy, but they are politically
chaotic during a generational Awakening era, and will not unite.

The White House doesn't know what it's doing. Inaction in Syria in
2011 led to the creation of ISIS and its spillover into Iraq, and now
the President isn't even mentioning Syria, but is hoping that Iraq's
government will "advance their interests and aspirations through the
political process." This is so bizarre it's laughable.

I don't know how many people have told me that they don't like the
idea of the U.S. being "policeman of the world," but that's exactly
what the U.S. has been since President Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947. Every President
since then has fulfilled that commitment till now, because the cost of
a small military action was always better than a repeat of something
as enormous as World War II. President Obama has repudiated that
commitment, and the Mideast is turning into a mess because of it, just
as New York city would turn into a mess if the police force stopped
policing. Like it or not, America is the policeman of the world, and
is already paying a price for the abrogation of that commitment.
White House and AP

****
**** Nato reports new Russian troop build-up on Ukraine's border
****

You'll recall that Russia's president Vladimir Putin kept promising to
pull back his 50,000 troops from Ukraine's border, and nothing
happened, week after week. Finally the troops were pulled back. But
now, Nato's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is reporting that
Russian troops are coming back, and that "at least a few thousand" are
once again deployed along the border. A statement from Ukraine's
government said that they'd identified two airborne divisions, and
airborne assault brigade and a motorized rifle brigade at the border.

It's not known what the purpose of this Russian troop movement
is. There are two possibilities:

• Putin and Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko have
  been speaking on the phone, and it's possible that the Russian
  troops are going to be used to close the border so that the
  fighting can stop in eastern Ukraine. That's the optimistic
  possibility.
  
• The pessimistic possibility is that the Russian troops will
  be joining the fight with the pro-Russian separatists in east
  Ukraine.

We'll have to wait a few days to see which scenario is right.
Washington Post and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Ali Hatim Al-Suleiman, Dulaim tribe,
Nouri al-Maliki, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine,
Nato, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Petro Poroshenko

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*** 21-Jun-14 World View -- With Syria destabilizing, number of refugees back to WW II levels

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• With Syria destabilizing, number of refugees back to WW II levels
• Ban Ki-moon says that Syria and Iraq are becoming unstable
• Both America and Europe face floods of mother and child refugees
• Financial advisors taking kickbacks in addition to commissions

****
**** With Syria destabilizing, number of refugees back to WW II levels
****


Ban Ki-moon on Friday said that Syria and Iraq are losing 'cohesion and integrity'

For the first time since World War II, the number of refugees that
have been forced to leave their homes because of violence or
persecution exceeds 50 million. During 2013, there were about 10.7
million individuals who became new refugees. Fully half of the new
refugees were children, and the large preponderance were mothers and
children.

The top three countries producing new refugees in 2013 were:

• Afghanistan - 2.56 million
• Syria - 2.47 million
• Somalia - 1.12 million

The top five countries that hosted refugees were:

• Pakistan - 1.6 million
• Iran - 857,400
• Lebanon - 856,500
• Jordan - 641,900
• Turkey - 609,900

2013 saw multiple refugee crises, reaching the greatest levels since
the 1994 Rwandan genocide. While there was only one major war causing
refugees in 1994, there were several in 2013: Syria, Afghanistan,
South Sudan, Central African Republic.

The figures were in a new report by United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UN refugee agency - UNHCR). António Guterres, the head
of UNHCR, announced the report with a big dollop of wishful thinking:

<QUOTE>"Peace is today dangerously in deficit. Humanitarians
can help as a palliative, but political solutions are vitally
needed. Without this, the alarming levels of conflict and the mass
suffering that is reflected in these figures will continue.

The international community has to overcome its differences and
find solutions to the conflicts of today in South Sudan, Syria,
Central African Republic and elsewhere. Non-traditional donors
need to step up alongside traditional donors. As many people are
forcibly displaced today as the entire populations of
medium-to-large countries such as Colombia or Spain, South Africa
or South Korea."<END QUOTE>

Guterres says that Europe, America and other wealthy countries have an
obligation to do more to help refugees escape from violence and
persecution.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this worldwide surge
in refugees is a sign that many countries of the world are becoming
unstable in the generational Crisis era.

As an aside, the report says that there are additionally about 3.5
million stateless people in the world, though they are not counted as
refugees. UNHCR

****
**** Ban Ki-moon says that Syria and Iraq are becoming unstable
****

The normally mild-mannered U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
expressed anger on Friday at the situation in Syria. He blamed the
war on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for launching the war against
peaceful protesters three years ago, and he criticized the Security
Council and the international community for failing to do its duty,
and for risking the "cohesion and integrity" of Syria and Iraq:

<QUOTE>"Divisions within Syria, the region and international
community, even within the United Nations, and continued arms
flows continue to fuel the conflict. These bleak prospects have
darkened further with a flare of violence and sectarian tensions
in Iraq. Suddenly the cohesion and integrity of two major
countries, not just one, is in question.

The time is long past for the international community, in
particular the Security Council, to uphold its responsibilities,"
he said in urging the U.N. council to impose an arms embargo on
Syria."<END QUOTE>

Of course this is never going to happen, because Russia (along with
Iran) is a supporter of the genocide in Syria, and China sides with
Russia because China is busy annexing other countries' territories.

It's kind of interesting how the U.N. Security Council has evolved
since the end of World War II. At that time, it was thought that the
UNSC could maintain peace in the world. Its five permanent members --
Britain, France, U.S., Russia and China -- had all been the targets of
preemptive war by Germany and Japan. Since these five countries had
learned such harsh lessons, it was thought that they would be the ones
to guarantee that nothing like WW II ever happened again.

The ability of the UNSC to preserve peace has been eroding for
decades, but the real death for the UNSC was struck in 2011 by
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. As I've reported several times,
Putin's strategy has been to use the United Nations as a tool to
control Barack Obama and cripple American foreign policy, and he's
been spectacularly successful with that. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)

This has been a remarkable development. Instead of learning any
lesson from WW II, Putin and Russia are leading the world into
a new world war, and are PREVENTING the UNSC from doing anything
about it. In fact, the UNSC is now a tool to CAUSE war, rather
than a tool to PREVENT war.

This is just one more example of why people never learn the lessons of
history. VOA

****
**** Both America and Europe face floods of mother and child refugees
****

There's been a great deal of news coverage recently of the flood women
and children coming through the border in Mexico in order to remain in
the United States. Estimates are that between 60,000 and 80,000
children without parents will cross the border in 2014. The huge size
of this mass of children is a new phenomenon, for which the border
patrol is completely unprepared. Unlike adult male migrants, who try
to get into the U.S. without being spotted by a border guard, these
children run to the borders guards, as they've been told that
unaccompanied children will not be deported. In many cases, they
carry with them the name and phone number of relatives or friends in
the U.S. They're escaping violence in Guatemala, Honduras and El
Salvador.

A similar phenomenon is happening in Europe. Some 43,000 migrants,
many of them unattached children, cross the Mediterranean in shaky,
unstable boats headed for Italy or Greece. Many of these children
drown, or have to be rescued by patrol ships sent out by European
governments. These children are fleeing violence in Syria, South
Sudan, Central African Republic, and other countries.

These surges of child migrants into Europe, America and elsewhere are
highly charged political issues, and are a big part of the increasing
instability of the world that's leading us into a new world war.
CNN


****
**** Financial advisors taking kickbacks in addition to commissions
****

According to James Sanford of Sag Harbor Advisors, many financial
advisors take kickbacks from the companies whose mutual funds that
they advise clients to invest in. In other words, if you're paying a
financial advisor to tell you what you should invest in, he may be
selecting the investments that bring him the largest kickbacks, rather
than investments mostly likely to be good for you. This is unethical,
or course, and probably illegal, but with Washington from the
President on down perpetrating the greatest acts of corruption I've
seen in my lifetime, who cares what financial advisors are doing?
CNBC



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Afghnistan, Pakistan,
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, António Guterres,
Ban Ki-moon, Iraq, UN Security Council, Russia, China,
Vladimir Putin, James Sanford

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*** 22-Jun-14 World View -- India's PM Narendra Modi government in crisis over Iraq hostages

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China sends four new oil rigs into South China Sea
• In a turnabout, Pakistan refugees flood into Afghanistan
• India's PM Narendra Modi government in crisis over Iraq hostages
• In strategic victory, ISIS captures Syria-Iraq border crossing

****
**** China sends four new oil rigs into South China Sea
****


Chinese ship sprays water cannons at smaller Vietnamese ship in May

After military tensions surged in the last few months between China
and Vietnam over China's drilling rig within Vietnam's exclusive
economic zone (EEZ), China is now launching four new oil rigs. In
response to a question, China's foreign ministry said, "Please don't
worry, there won't be any problem." It's possible, though not yet
confirmed, that all four of the oil rigs are entirely within China's
waters. Reuters

****
**** In a turnabout, Pakistan refugees flood into Afghanistan
****

For years, Pakistan has been hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees
from Afghanistan fleeing the war there. Now there's a flood of
thousands of Pakistan refugees fleeing into Afghanistan, where there
are no refugee camps to accommodate them. They're escaping from the
violence of the military action by Pakistan's army against Taliban
hideouts and weapons stores in North Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal
area. The military action was triggered by the terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi earlier this month. More than
100,000 thousand people in North Waziristan have been forced to flee
their homes, and those that haven't gone to Afghanistan have traveled
to nearby provinces in Pakistan in the hope of finding food and
shelter. VOA

****
**** India's PM Narendra Modi government in crisis over Iraq hostages
****

The Iraq crisis has become a political crisis for the new government
of prime minister Narendra Modi, because the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) has taken 40 India citizens as hostages. According to
reports, the the Indian workers are now being held in a cotton
warehouse in the vicinity of Mosul. In addition, 46 Indian nurses are
trapped in a hospital in Tikrit. There are over 10,000 to 20,000
Indians in Iraq, both legal and illegal migrants. Many of them are in
the Shia-dominated south, and if the war escalates, then they will be
in danger. India is also concerned that the conflict will result in a
sharp increase in oil prices, which would harm India's economy.
The Hindu (India) and Times of India

****
**** In strategic victory, ISIS captures Syria-Iraq border crossing
****

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) made a major strategic
victory on Saturday by capturing the town of al-Qaim in Iraq, a border
crossing between Syria and Iraq. This will permit ISIS to join its
armies in Syria and Iraq, and permit the free flow of people, weapons
and commercial goods between the two armies, and will provide a direct
path for ISIS to approach Baghdad. ISIS has captured billions of
dollars worth of American weapons, including tanks, humvees,
helicopters, and other heavy weaponry, from storehouses in Mosul that
were supposedly being guarded by the Iraqi army. Those weapons can
now be moved back into Syria, if desired, for use against Hezbollah,
Iranian forces, and the Syrian regime army. CNN and
AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea,
Pakistan, North Waziristan, Afghanistan,
India, Narendra Modi, Iraq, Mosul, Tikrit,
Syria, al-Qaim

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*** 23-Jun-14 World View -- Jordan on alert as ISIS captures more Iraq border towns

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israeli troops kill two Palestinians during hunt for kidnapped teens
• Israeli air strikes hit Syria after cross-border attack
• Pakistanis fear nationwide blowback from military offensive against Taliban
• Jordan on alert as ISIS captures more Iraq border towns

****
**** Israeli troops kill two Palestinians during hunt for kidnapped teens
****

Israeli troops on Sunday killed two Palestinians in the West Bank as
they conducted a hunt for three Israeli teenagers who disappeared and
were allegedly kidnapped ten days earlier on June 10. Their deaths
raise to four the number of Palestinians killed in Israel's largest
military operation in years. The operation is being conducted across
both the West Bank and Gaza.

While condemning the killing of the Palestinians, the Palestinian
Authority (PA) security forces are cooperating in the manhunt. PA
president Mahmoud Abbas has condemned the kidnapping, and this has
caused a rift between PA/Fatah and Hamas, shortly after the two groups
formed a "unity government."

Abbas on Sunday reiterated his commitment to help Israel find the
kidnapped teens, but warned that the actions of Israel's military
could ignite the Palestinian street:

<QUOTE>Israel’s continued destructive actions, including
shooting innocent Palestinians in cold blood, while Ramadan is
around the corner and the situation on the Palestinian street is
explosive, can only serve to ignite the West Bank and take things
out of control."<END QUOTE>

Israel has been bitterly opposed to the unity government, and is using
the kidnapping as an opportunity to crush the Hamas organization in
the West Bank by arresting 340 Palestinians, about two-thirds of them
members of Hamas. Hamas claims that it had nothing to do with the
kidnapping, but Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has
"irrefutable proof" that Hamas is guilty, and that the proof will be
made public soon.

Part of the "game" being played on both sides is the potential for
trading prisoners for hostages. In 2011, Israel release 1,027
Palestinians held in Israeli prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit,
and Israeli soldier who had been held hostage by Hamas for five years.
More Palestinians were released from prison during the "peace process"
that collapsed a few months ago. Many of the Palestinians being
arrested by the Israeli forces had been previously released. Some
reports indicate that Palestinians are in favor of efforts to kidnap
Israeli teens, because they can be exchanged for prisoners, as in the
case of Shalit. If that's Hamas's strategy, then we can assume that
Israel's strategy is to arrest as many Palestinians as possible, so
that they can be freed in exchange for the teen hostages.

Israel's massive reaction to the kidnapping reminds me of 2006, when Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war with Hezbollah within four hours,
with no plan and no
objectives. The result was a disaster for Israel and for Lebanon.
That isn't the case so far this time, but it may begin to approach
that point. Jerusalem Post and AP and International Middle East Media Center (Gaza)

****
**** Israeli air strikes hit Syria after cross-border attack
****

Israel says that it's carried out air strikes on nine military targets
within Syria. The air strikes were in response to mortar fire or
shelling from Syria that killed a 15-year-old Israeli boy in the Golan
Heights. In March, Israel conducted air strikes against several
Syrian military targets after a bombing that injured four of its
soldiers in the Golan Heights. BBC

****
**** Pakistanis fear nationwide blowback from military offensive against Taliban
****

Some 350,000 people (known as "internally displaced people" or IDPs)
from the North Waziristan agency in Pakistan's tribal area are now
refugees, fleeing the military action that's clearing out militants,
bases, communications centers, safehouses and weapons stores in the
agency. (The different regions in the tribal area are called
"agencies.")

Some are fleeing to Afghanistan, as we described yesterday,
but most, including tens of thousands of
children, are waiting in long lines in extremely hot weather to get
security clearance to enter the town of Bannu, where they hope to be
safe. They're escaping from the violence of the military action by
Pakistan's army against Taliban hideouts and weapons stores in North
Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal area. There are fears of a
humanitarian disaster, or that the IDPs could spread polio, as many of
the displaced children have not been vaccinated.

The Pakistani Taliban have been bombing schools, mosques and markets
across Pakistan for years, and there have been repeated calls for the
army to go into North Waziristan, where most of the Taliban bases are
located. The government and the army resisted those calls for years,
fearing blowback, but now military action was triggered by the terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi earlier this month.
Investigations showed that the airport attackers were not only
Pakistanis, but were also Tajiks and Uzbeks from the Islamic Movement
of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the East Turkestan Independence Movement
(ETI).

However, once the airport attack occurred, it was clear to everyone
that the military action would begin soon, and so the Pakistani,
Uzbek, and Tajik terrorists have all fled, leaving behind seven
million civilians and a possible humanitarian disaster.

Now the concern is rising quickly that the predicted blowback is about
to occur. Targets in the capital city Islamabad are already being
threatened, and concerns are rising of a new, more dangerous wave of
terrorist attacks across the country. BBC and Daily Times (Pakistan) and Asian Tribune (Sri Lanka)

****
**** Jordan on alert as ISIS captures more Iraq border towns
****

Jordan is increasing its border defenses and putting some military
units on alert after the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
captured three more Iraqi border towns, including one on the border
with Jordan, only 200 miles from Amman. ISIS now has unchecked
control of hundreds of miles along the Iraq-Syria border, allowing
easy travel of people and weapons between the two countries, and
putting ISIS in easy reach of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Washington Post and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Gilad Shalit,
Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas,
Golan Heights, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan, North Waziristan, Taliban,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU,
East Turkestan Independence Movement, ETI

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*** 24-Jun-14 World View -- Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence
• Boomers have no one to sell their stocks and real estate to
• Ebola virus is 'out of control' in western Africa

****
**** Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence
****


Caged Al-Jazeera journalists in court on Monday (AP)

Countries and human rights organizations around the world are
condemning the convictions by an Egyptian court of three Al-Jazeera
reporters, with sentences ranging from 7 to 10 years in jail. they
were accused of "spreading false news," falsely portraying Egypt as
being in a state of "civil war," as well as aiding or joining the
banned Muslim Brotherhood. The trial was closely watched by
journalists and governments around the world, with all the proceedings
widely reported, and apparently not a shred of evidence was provided
supporting the charges. The evidence that was presented was
irrelevant, and a lot of it was completely phony. In one case, a BBC
(not Al-Jazeera) podcast was presented as evidence.

(Definition of "Kangaroo Court": Slang for a court of law in which the
violations of procedure, precedents, and due process are so gross that
fundamental justice is denied. It usually means that the judge is
incompetent or obviously biased.)

According to several analysts, the logic behind the ruling is as
follows:

• Al-Jazeera is funded by Qatar.
  
• Qatar supported Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, and disparaged the
  army coup that forced him out of office and put an army junta in
  place.
  
• The Arabic version of Al-Jazeera aired many interviews and reports
  that criticized the coup.
  
• The kangaroo courts in Egypt have sentenced thousands of Muslim
  Brotherhood supporters to jail, and in some cases to death, in mass
  trials with no evidence presented at all.
  
• The Al-Jazeera reporters work for Al-Jazeera English (not
  Al-Jazeera Arabic), they were good reporters, presenting fair and
  objective reports, but they've been given 7-10 year sentences because
  Egypt's junta wants to get even with Qatar's government.

Al Ahram (Cairo) and Al Ahram and BBC

****
**** Boomers have no one to sell their stocks and real estate to
****

A web site reader referred me to the article excerpted below:

The Generational Short: Who Will Boomers Sell Their Stocks To?

The implicit conclusion: the Baby Boomers won't have anyone to sell
their stocks, real estate and bonds to. Correspondent Eric
A. demolished the fantasy that Gen X will have the income and assets
to buy the Boomers' stocks held in IRAs, local government and union
pension funds and 401K accounts.

The idea that Gen-Y will have the wealth (not to mention the desire)
to buy the Boomers' stock market portfolios at nosebleed valuations
poses a peculiar conundrum: the only way Gen-Y will have the wealth to
buy Baby Boomers' assets is if the Boomers sell their assets and pass
the wealth along to Gen-Y.

So if both Gen-X and Gen-Y are out as buyers, who's left to buy the
tens of trillions of dollars of Boomer assets at bubblicious prices?
Given that other nations face the same demographic dilemma, the answer
appears to be: no one. ...


A Tale of Two Dows

If this is the New Normal, then what that means is a bubble and crash
every 7+ years is now the expected cycle. ...

Doesn't it boil down to this? If we can't come up with a viable cohort
who can afford (and is willing to place that generational bet) to buy
Baby Boomer assets at current bubble-level prices, then it follows
that as the first Boomers start selling their assets, prices will fall
as there is nobody left to buy them, at least at these valuations.

Those who see the current era as an aberration have one logical
action: sell now and get out while the getting's good. Zero Hedge

****
**** Ebola virus is 'out of control' in western Africa
****

Doctors Without Borders is calling the Ebola epidemic in western
Africa "out of control." There have been 567 cases and 350 deaths
since the epidemic began in March. The outbreak has spread to 60
different locations in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The virus is
spreading widely because people are traveling without realizing that
they're infected with the virus. It can take 2-21 days for someone to
feel sick after they've been exposed. Once symptoms show, many die
within 10 days. There's no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since
Ebola is only spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an
infected person, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the
air. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Kangaroo Court,
Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Jazeera, Qatar,
Boomers, Generation-X, Generation-Y,
Ebola, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,

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Jordan Goodspeed - there's a discussion going on in the comments
section in the BigPeace posting of my last article on Thailand. I'm
asking information about the ethnic divisions. I don't know if I'll
get any answers, but I'm trying. People don't like to talk about this
stuff.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...w-shirt-elites

*** 25-Jun-14 World View -- The Iraqi catastrophe worsens as European youth join ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Iraqi catastrophe worsens as European youth join ISIS
• ISIS conducts sophisticated media campaign to attract European youth
• Russia may revoke its March 1 resolution authorizing Ukraine invasion
• Boko Haram in Nigeria abducts 60 more girls and 30 boys

****
**** The Iraqi catastrophe worsens as European youth join ISIS
****

European authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about the
numbers of European youth who are going to Syria to join the Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the jihad against the regimes in
Syria and Iraq. Media interviews with some of these young jihadists
indicate an enormous level of ignorance:

<QUOTE>"I'm from the south of England. I grew up in a middle
class family. Life was easy back home. I had a life. I had a
car. But the thing is: You cannot practice Islam back home. We see
all around us evil. We see pedophiles. We see homosexuality. We
see crime. We see rape."<END QUOTE>

There are hundreds and, more likely, thousands of young men who have
gone to fight with ISIS, as are would-be jihadists from around the
world, from America to Indonesia to Pakistan to Africa to Russia.

According to a Lebanese analyst, the Western media are ignoring the
danger posed by ISIS, by vastly underestimating its power and
accomplishments, and even sometimes portraying it as a benign people's
revolution of tribal youths.

ISIS was formed only a little over a year ago in Syria, and it's
repeatedly fought off and beaten not only attacks by Syria's army, but
also other Sunni militant groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra. Despite
having to fight battles on several fronts, in the last few weeks it's
accomplish an extremely complex and sophisticated victory in Iraq,
taking control of an Iraqi land area that is bigger than several Arab
countries combined, and is threatening Saudi Arabia and Jordan. ISIS
has taken control of many of the border crossings between Iraq and
Syria, effectively erasing the border between the two countries.

The Western media have also given an unlikely impression of the size
of ISIS, sometimes describing it as having only a few hundred or a few
thousand fighters. In fact, the old Al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, had at least 15,000 fighters, and possibly many
times more. ISIS is likely to have all those fighters available, and
those are buttressed by foreign jihadists coming from around the
world.

None of this should be any surprise to long-time readers of
Generational Dynamics World View, as we've been describing the
increasing strength of the jihadist movement in Syria for well over a
year. It's also worth taking a moment to repeat the main factors that
have made this possible:

• The "industrial strength" torture and extermination of Sunni
  civilians by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, even using sarin gas
  and other chemical weapons with impunity.
  
• The support by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who is a war
  criminal for providing unlimited supplies of heavy weapons to al-Assad
  to continue his genocide.
  
• The disastrous and incompetent foreign policy of President Barack
  Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, which has caused one debacle
  after another. The most disastrous event was Obama's flip-flop on the
  chemical weapons "red line" in Syria, which convinced jihadists around
  the world that America is no longer strong or credible.

CNN and Al Monitor

****
**** ISIS conducts sophisticated media campaign to attract European youth
****

In the last few months, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has
launched a sophisticated Al-Hayat Media ("Life is belief and jihad")
and a media campaign in English, German, French, and other languages,
targeting Western audiences. The character and quality of the
productions suggest that the staff is experienced in producing media
materials for Western audiences. Apparently, one of the main figures
active in the new media branch is German rapper-turned-jihad-fighter
Abu Talha Al Almani (aka Deso Dogg), who was wounded twice in the
fighting in Syria. Al-Hayat's twitter account was shut down because
of its offensive material, but Al-Hayat media's videos and materials
are also distributed in other ways.

One British youth, who goes by the name Abu Abdullah Al Brittani,
gives online advice to underage British youth on how to exchange
currencies, how to travel to Syria and join ISIS, and even gives
advice on marriage and family. MEMRI and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Russia may revoke its March 1 resolution authorizing Ukraine invasion
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has asked Russia's Federation
Council to cancel the resolution, passed on March 1, that authorized
an invasion of Ukraine by Russia's armed forces. Putin's call is a
response to the unilateral ceasefire called by Ukraine's President
Petr Poroshenko. A decision will be reached today (Wednesday).
Voice of Russia

****
**** Boko Haram in Nigeria abducts 60 more girls and 30 boys
****

The Nigerian terrorist and sex pervert group Boko Haram has abducted
60 more girls and young women, some as young as 3. In addition, some
30 boys were abducted. The abduction took place during a three-day
siege of a village in northeast Nigeria, during which many people were
killed, the entire village was burned down, and the Boko Haram
perverts took their time picking out the girls that they wanted to
abduct. These new kidnappings come over two months after 200-300
schoolgirls were abducted. The Nigerian army and government is viewed
as helpless against the crimes of Boko Haram. However, Boko Haram has
indicated that it may be willing to release 219 schoolgirls in return
for the release of all Boko Haram militants currently in Nigerian
jails. The government has rejected such suggestions in the past, but
is now said to be considering it. AFP and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Europe, Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al-Qaeda in Iraq,
Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Al-Hayat Media,
Abu Talha Al Almani, Deso Dogg, Abu Abdullah Al Brittani,
Ukraine, Petr Poroshenko, Nigeria, Boko Haram

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*** 26-Jun-14 World View -- Ukraine to sign trade deal with European Union on Friday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• At least 21 killed in Nigerian shopping mall explosion
• Ukraine to sign trade deal with European Union on Friday
• Stocks rise after disastrous GDP report

****
**** At least 21 killed in Nigerian shopping mall explosion
****


Aftermath of suicide car bomb in Abuja on Wednesday

It's assumed that Boko Haram is responsible for the suicide car
bombing on Wednesday that caused a massive explosion in a shopping
mall in Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria, killing at least 21
people, and scattering body parts around the plaza. It seems that
Nigeria's government and army can do nothing to stop the repeated
attacks, one or two every week, from Boko Haram, including abductions,
gunfights and suicide bombings. It was just just yesterday
that we reported that Boko Haram had
abducted 90 more women, in addition to the 200+ schoolgirls that
they'd already abducted. Daily Mail (London) and Nigerian Bulletin

****
**** Ukraine to sign trade deal with European Union on Friday
****

The event that triggered the violent crisis besetting Ukraine for the
last seven months was the last-minute flip-flop by then-president
Viktor Yanukovych, who had promised to sign a trade deal with the
European Union, to ditch the EU deal and go with a trade deal with
Russia.

Now the new president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, is going to
Brussels on Friday to to sign that same trade deal with the EU,
apparently with the reluctant blessings of the Russians. According to
Russia's Economic Development Minister, Alexei Ulyukayev:

<QUOTE>"A three-party meeting of the EU, Ukraine and Russia
is expected to take place at the ministerial level in July. EU
Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht, Ukrainian Economy Minister
Pavel Sheremet and I will meet to discuss risks that will emerge
over the implementation of this agreement and possible measures to
offset these risks."<END QUOTE>

Ulyukayev says that from Russia's point of view, there are
two groups of problems:

• Since imports into Ukraine from the EU are almost tariff-free,
  and imports into Russia from Ukraine are almost tariff-free, it's
  feared that imports from the EU will go through Ukraine into Russia
  without paying any tariffs. However, imports into Russia from the EU
  are currently NOT tariff-free. Russia is concerned about uncontrolled
  imports due to the introduction of European technical regulations and
  the problem of imports from third countries," according to
  Ulyukayev.
  
• There are a large number of existing agreements between Ukraine
  and Russia on such things as technical regulation, veterinary control
  and pharmacology, -- things "dealing with citizens’ safety and
  health." These agreements will have to be renegotiated.

The Ukraine-EU trade deal is 1,200-page document crammed with rules on
everything from turkeys to tulips, cheese to machinery. Itar-Tass (Moscow) and
Canadian Broadcasting

****
**** Stocks rise after disastrous GDP report
****

The stock market rose on Wednesday, after the Commerce Department
revised its estimate of GDP growth from the first quarter, originally
reported to be an anemic +1.0%, to a disastrous fall of 2.9%. The
nearly 3% contraction in the economy during the first quarter is being
blamed variously on the weather and Obamacare. According to one
estimate, indirect taxes from Obamacare are the highest tax increase
in decades.

Mainstream economists were shocked by this report. Every quarter,
they predict that the economy's growth will start to surge in the next
quarter, just as it did after recessions in the 1970s, 80s and 90s.
But as I've pointed out many, many times, mainstream economics didn't
predict and can't explain the tech bubble of the 1990s, didn't predict
and can't explain the huge credit and real estable bubble of the
mid-2000s decade, and the real estate collapse and credit crisis after
2007. Hell, they didn't even know that there'd been a real estate
bubble until around 2009, two years after it had started to burst.

Mainstream economists didn't predict and can't explain any of those
events. They don't have a clue what the economy is going to do this
year, and even less of a clue about next year.

What they don't understand is that a return to the 1970s-90s is
100% impossible. That was a different generational era. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the mood and behavior
of people today matches the 1930s, not the 1980s, which means
that the velocity of money is going to continue to plummet,
and that the economy is in a deflationary spiral.

However, stock market share prices rose on Wednesday. The reason that
investors were happy about the disastrous GDP data was that it means
that the Fed will continue its program of "printing" tens of billions
of dollars in new money, and pumping into the financial system,
allowing it to flow into the stock market.

For investors, bad news is still good news. Investing.com


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Abuja,
Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, Petro Poroshenko,
Alexei Ulyukayev, European Union, Commerce Dept.

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 26-Jun-14 World View -- Ukraine to sign trade deal with European Union on Friday

However, stock market share prices rose on Wednesday. The reason that
investors were happy about the disastrous GDP data was that it means
that the Fed will continue its program of "printing" tens of billions
of dollars in new money, and pumping into the financial system,
allowing it to flow into the stock market.
For investors, bad news is still good news. Investing.com

Uh, when will market participants figure out that "demand destruction" trashes corporate bottom lines? Lessee, most everyones' levered up to the hilt with college loans, credit card debt, HELOC debt, etc. So, no matter how low interest rates go, Rags sees a problem.
1. Those who are able to borrow don't want to borrow because of GDP decline, etc.
2. For the majority, they can't borrow even if they want to. They have too much debt.
Methinks when said realities hit Wall Street over the head like a 2x4, a crash will happen.

What they don't understand is that a return to the 1970s-90s is
100% impossible. That was a different generational era. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the mood and behavior
of people today matches the 1930s, not the 1980s, which means
that the velocity of money is going to continue to plummet,
and that the economy is in a deflationary spiral.

Yeah, that's in point #1 above. The FED can print, but nobody wants the money! I guess it just goes to "money heaven." IOW, banks just do a "carry trade". Borrow from the FED and then deposit it at the FED and earn a higher interest rate. I wish I could do that.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 26-Jun-14 World View -- Ukraine to sign trade deal with European Union on Friday


****
**** At least 21 killed in Nigerian shopping mall explosion
****


Aftermath of suicide car bomb in Abuja on Wednesday

It's assumed that Boko Haram is responsible for the suicide car
bombing on Wednesday that caused a massive explosion in a shopping
mall in Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria, killing at least 21
people, and scattering body parts around the plaza. It seems that
Nigeria's government and army can do nothing to stop the repeated
attacks, one or two every week, from Boko Haram, including abductions,
gunfights and suicide bombings. It was just just yesterday
that we reported that Boko Haram had
abducted 90 more women, in addition to the 200+ schoolgirls that
they'd already abducted. Daily Mail (London) and Nigerian Bulletin

Hmmmm.... Are Boko Haram and ISIS using GM cars? I think those are pretty prefabbed car-bombs with that ignition switch recall issue. They could also be using some 1970's era Ford Pintos, right?

*** 27-Jun-14 World View -- Saudi Arabia's armed forces on high alert as ISIS approaches

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syrian regime warplanes bomb ISIS on Iraq border, becoming our ally
• Saudi Arabia's armed forces on high alert as ISIS approaches
• Four questions ISIS uses to tell Sunni from Shia
• Thousands of Ukrainians flee east Ukraine for Russia

****
**** Syrian regime warplanes bomb ISIS on Iraq border, becoming our ally
****


Men watching Nouri al-Maliki's speech on a TV in a Baghdad cafe, thanking Syria for the air strikes (AP)

Warplanes from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad struck
at positions held by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) along
the border between Syria and Iraq. Initial reports indicated that the
warplanes' targets were within Iraq, though reports differ. According
to Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki:

<QUOTE>"There was no coordination involved, but we welcome
this action. We welcome any Syrian strike against Isis, because
this group targets both Iraq and Syria ... But we didn't make any
request from Syria. They carry out their strikes and we carry out
ours. The final winners are our two countries."<END QUOTE>

This makes the Syria regime our ally in Iraq, but our enemy in
Syria. Iran is also our ally in Iraq, and our enemy in Syria.

In fact, late news is that the Obama administration is asking the US
Congress to approve $500 million to train and equip "moderate"
opposition forces in Syria. So keep your scorecards up to date, Dear
Reader.

As I said many years ago, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis,
Iran will be our ally and the Sunni Arab states will be our enemy in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. These trends are
moving the region in that direction. BBC and
Guardian (London)

****
**** Saudi Arabia's armed forces on high alert as ISIS approaches
****

With the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) having taken control
of border posts in Iraq on the border with Jordan, putting Saudi
Arabia's security in danger, Saudi King Abdullah has put the army and
security forces on the highest alert. According to the Saudi
state-run news agency:

<QUOTE>"Anticipating (that) the terrorist organizations or
others might carry out actions that might disturb the security of
the homeland, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques has ordered
taking all necessary measures to protect the gains of the homeland
and its territories in addition to the security and stability of
the Saudi people."<END QUOTE>

Saudi reconnaissance planes have found ISIS terrorists heading for the
Saudi border, aiming to seize control of the Iraqi-Saudi border
crossing at Ar Ar. CNN and Debka

****
**** Four questions ISIS uses to tell Sunni from Shia
****

When the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conquers a new
village, one chore the terrorists have to go through is to decide whom
in the village to let live, and whom to torture, rape, mutilate and
kill. Since ISIS is devoted to exterminating apostate Shia Muslims,
making that decision requires figuring out whether each citizen is
Shia or Sunni. According to reports that are coming out of Iraq, the
ISIS terrorists ask four questions to determine whom to kill:

• "What's your name?" Some names are more likely to be
  Shia.
• "What's your address?" Shias often live in enclaves in the
  village being conquered.
• "How do you pray?" Shias and Sunnis have slightly different hand
  and arm positions during praying.
• "What music do you like?" Even the ringtone on a person's
  telephone might be a clue.

People can easily get tripped up if they try to lie. Others refuse to
lie about their faith. Times of India

****
**** Thousands of Ukrainians flee east Ukraine for Russia
****

A ceasefire that's been in place in eastern Ukraine for the
last few days is due to expire on Friday, and thousands of
Ukrainians are in long lines on the border with Russia, fleeing
the expected violence. Earlier this week, Russian migration
officials said that more than 90,000 refugees had already
crossed the border.

The fear is that, once the ceasefire ends, the violence between
Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists will surge, putting
civilians' lives in danger. Western leaders are asking Russia's
president Vladimir Putin to call on the pro-Russian separatists to lay
down their arms, and to do so "in the next few hours," to prevent
further bloodshed. AP and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah, Ar Ar, Sunni, Shia,
Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin

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*** 28-Jun-14 World View -- USS Bataan with 1000 marines to join six other warships in the Persian Gulf

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• We have Jean-Claude Juncker to kick around again.
• Britain's David Cameron hints at leaving EU because of Juncker
• The financial crisis in Greece continues
• USS Bataan with 1000 marines to join six other warships in the Persian Gulf

****
**** We have Jean-Claude Juncker to kick around again.
****


Jean-Claude Juncker and David Cameron

Jean-Claude Jüncker is to become the next president of the European
Commission, roughly weaker equivalent of the president of the United
States, after the European Council backed his nomination this
afternoon in Brussels. The European Council, the leaders of the 28
nations of European Union, voted 26-2 in favor of Jüncker. Only
Britain and Hungary were opposed.

Jean-Claude Jüncker is a total politician. Almost everything he says
is completely full of crap, but his political skills are so great that
he can sell it to a credulous press that acts to him the like the NY
Times and NBC News act toward President Obama.

It was always great having Jüncker around. He was head of the
Eurogroup, the eurozone finance ministers, and so he was in charge of
the efforts to bail out Greece. At every point in the bailout, he
would make a statement that Greek fiscal crisis had been solved, and
he would back it up with some figure that was completely ridiculous.
But the mainstream press would lap it up the way they lap up
everything Obama says, and it's up to someone like me to point out
what's going on.

The most amusing moment occurred in May, 2011, when Jüncker was caught
in a lie so obvious that even he couldn't BS his way out of it.
Finally he said When it becomes serious, you have to lie,
to explain why he lied. From that point
on, we could always assume that everything he said was a lie, since
everything was always serious.

Jüncker was prime minister of Luxembourg from 1995 to 2013, and when
he retired, it was assumed that he would go off to a Swiss chalet and
write his memoirs. But he wanted the job of President of the European
Union, and when the European Parliament ratifies the nomination on
July 16, then he'll have what he wanted. And we'll have him back to
kick around again. Irish Times and Reuters

****
**** Britain's David Cameron hints at leaving EU because of Juncker
****


Jean-Claude Jüncker in 2005, shaking his fist at British prime minister Tony Blair (BBC)

Britain's prime minister called Jean-Claude Jüncker the wrong man
for the job of EU president, and said:

<QUOTE>"There are times when it’s very important that you
stick to your principles and you stick to your convictions even if
the odds are heavily stacked against you rather than going along
with something that you believe is profoundly wrong. And today is
one of those days. ...

If the European Council, the elected heads of government, are
going to allow the European Parliament to choose the next
president of the European Commission in this way I wanted it on
the record that Britain opposed that.""<END QUOTE>

He added that support in Britain to remain in the EU is "wafer-thin,"
and that Jüncker's accession would harden the opposition.

The dispute is bitter and personal. There have even been reports of
Cameron meeting with other leaders earlier in the week to discuss
Jüncker's heavy drinking and smoking problems. Jüncker's liking for
"a cognac at breakfast" was causing concerns. One European diplomat
said: 'His alcohol consumption has been raised by a number of leaders
since the (European) parliamentary elections.'

However, this was not the first bitter, personal disagreement between
Jüncker and a British prime minister. In June, 2005, at an EU budget
summit, Jüncker was demanding of Britain's PM Tony Blair to agree to
give up a $5 billion rebate that Margaret Thatcher had negotiated in
1984. Blair refused, unless France's president Jacques Chirac agreed
to reduce the large agricultural subsidies that were given to French
farmers. Jüncker shook his fist at Blair, and at a post-midnight
press conference, a furious Jean-Claude Jüncker clearly condemned
Blair and the UK, saying he felt ashamed that "certain people did not
have the will to reach agreement when some poorer other countries were
willing to do so."

Britain and Jüncker represent opposite poles on the spectrum of EU
federalism. Jüncker wants to give as much power as possible to the
politicians in Brussels, while Cameron, and Blair before him, want
Britain to retain as much individual sovereignty as possible. The
appointment of Jüncker to the EU presidency is a real thumb in the eye
of Cameron and Britain, and this story is not yet over. BBC and Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London)

****
**** The financial crisis in Greece continues
****

Jean-Claude Jüncker led the way in the bailout of Greece.
Greece's financial crisis hasn't been in the news much recently,
so it's appropriate to ask how Greece is doing today.

In October, 2011, European leaders announced a new plan to bail out
Greece. For details, see my article at the time, "28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal"
. The heart of the
announcement was that investors holding Greek bonds would
"voluntarily" lose 50% of their investments -- take a 50% "haircut."
(It later turned out to be 75%.) In return, Greece would go on an
austerity program that would lower its deficit to GDP ratio from 160%
to 120%, by 2020.

That turned out not to be enough, and in November, 2012, Jüncker
announced to the world what was to be the final bailout of Greece.
(See "28-Nov-12 World View -- Europe's new charade in Greece's bailout announcement"
) At the
2 am press conference, here's Jüncker's announcement:

<QUOTE>"This is not just about money. This is the promise of
a better future for the Greek people and for the euro area as a
whole, a break from the era of missed targets and loose
implementation towards a new paradigm of steadfast reform
momentum, declining debt ratios and a return to
growth."<END QUOTE>

Since the situation was serious, we can assume that Juncker was
lying, and indeed he was.

Where's Greece today? The unemployment rate is 27%, the highest in
the eurozone. Greece's inflation rate is -2%, putting it into the
worst deflationary spiral in the eurozone. And its debt-to-GDP ratio
has gone up - to 175%. In other words, instead of going from 160%
DOWN to 120%, the debt ratio has gone further UP, to 175%.

So Jüncker's fatuous babble about "a new paradigm of steadfast reform
momentum, declining debt ratios and a return to growth" was completely
wrong on all counts. And Greece's financial crisis is far from
over.

In May, I wrote about Europe's 'political earthquake' election,
where anti-EU parties surged in
several nations. In Greece, the far-left Syriza party got 26.7%, its
highest ever, and the neo-Nazi Gold Dawn party got 10% of the vote,
its highest ever. Greece is going to keep from being pulled apart,
it's going to need more than fatuous political babble from the EU
president. Real Clear Markets

****
**** USS Bataan with 1000 marines to join six other warships in the Persian Gulf
****

CNN is reporting that the USS Bataan is being sent to the Persian Gulf
with 1000 marines on board. There is no word of a planned invasion.
That will make seven warships there -- The USS Arleigh Burke, the USS
Truxton, the USS Gunston Hall, the USS George HW Bush, the USS O'Kane,
the USS Philippine Sea, USS Mesa Verde -- along with helicopters and
warplanes that can be used for an invasion or for an evacuation of US
citizens. There have been US drones flying over Iraq for several
days, but now it's been confirmed that the drones are armed with
Hellfire missiles, to provide air support and force protection in case
the 180 or so US military advisors currently in Baghdad comes under
attack. CNN and Politico


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jean-Claude Jüncker, Luxembourg, European Commission,
David Cameron, Britain, Tony Blair, Margaret Thatcher,
France, Jacques Chirac, Greece, Syriza, Golden Dawn,
USS Bataan, Iraq

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