*** 29-Jun-14 World View -- Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I
• What could trigger another world war?
• West African Ebola outbreak is now the worst in history

****
**** Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I
****


Bosnian actor Jovan Mojsilovic poses in front of monument honoring Gavrilo Princip at ceremony on Saturday (AP)

By all rights, World War I should an almost completely forgotten event
in the dust bins of history, with its 16 million deaths a symbol of a
time when people weren't nearly as smart and sophisticated as we are
today, and so did many stupid things.

That may be the attitude in America, but it's certainly not in the
Balkans, where a monument to Gavrilo Princip was unveiled on Saturday
in East Sarajevo by Nebojsa Radmanovic, the Serb leader in the
government of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Austria-Hungary had occupied Bosnia since 1878, and Princip was the
one of seven members of the group Mlada Bosna (Young Bosnia) that
wanted independence from Austria-Hungary.

Exactly one hundred years ago, on June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip shot
and killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian
empire, and his pregnant wife Sophie.

At Saturday's ceremony, Radmanovic said that Princip was a hero to the
Serb people:

<QUOTE>"Today, we have Gavrilo in East Sarajevo, a
revolutionary, a man who to us, is one century of hope. We
remember the Young Bosnia members and Gavrilo Princip proudly. ...

Gavrilo Princip’s shot was a shot for freedom. His shot was a
prelude to what some Europeans had prepared for years, and Serbs
finished the war as winners. We remember Mlada Bosna and Gavrilo
Princip with pride."<END QUOTE>

There were also centenary commemorations of the start of World War I
in the other half of Sarajevo, but the Muslims and Croats in those
commemorations do not consider Princip or any Serb to be a hero.
Fresh in their minds are the memories of the Bosnian war in 1992-95,
when 100,000 people died and Sarajevo suffered a 1,425 day siege by
Serb forces. To them, Princip is just a terrorist who killed a
politician and a pregnant woman, and brought a flourishing epoch to
an end.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 1990s Bosnian war
came at the expected time. World War I ended in 1918, and new crisis
wars begin when the survivors of the previous crisis disappear. By
the 1990s, none of those survivors were left, and the region collapsed
into one of the bloodiest and most vicious wars in the post-WW II era.
According to one historical summary of the war:

<QUOTE>"It was during this initial wave of Bosnian Serb
ethnic cleansing — orchestrated by Radovan Karadzi and his
generals — that the world began to hear tales as horrifying as
anything you can imagine. Militia units would enter a town and
indiscriminately kill anyone they saw — civilian men, women, and
children. Pregnant women mortally wounded by gunfire were left to
die in the street. Fleeing residents crawled on their stomachs for
hours to reach cover, even as their family and friends were shot
and blown up right next to them. Soldiers rounded up families,
then forced parents to watch as they slit the throats of their
children — and then the parents were killed, too. Dozens of people
would be lined up along a bridge to have their throats slit, one
at a time, so that their lifeless bodies would plunge into the
river below. (Villagers downstream would see corpses float past,
and know their time was coming soon.) While in past conflicts
houses of worship had been considered off-limits, now Karadzi's
forces actively targeted mosques and Catholic churches. Perhaps
most despicable was the establishment of so-called “rape camps” —
concentration camps where mostly Bosniak [Bosnian Muslim] women
were imprisoned and systematically raped by Serb soldiers. Many
were intentionally impregnated and held captive until they had
come to term (too late for an abortion), when they were released
to bear and raise a child forced upon them by their hated
enemy. These are the stories that turned “Balkans” into a dirty
word.

The Bosnian Serb aggressors were intentionally gruesome and
violent. Leaders roused their foot soldiers with hate-filled
propaganda (claiming, for example, that the Bosniaks were intent
on creating a fundamentalist Islamic state that would do even
worse to its Serb residents), then instructed them to carry out
unthinkable atrocities. For the people who carried out these
attacks, the war represented a cathartic opportunity to exact
vengeance for decades-old perceived injustices. Everyday Serbs —
who, for centuries, have been steeped in messages about how they
have been the victims of their neighbors — saw this as an
opportunity to finally make a stand. But their superiors had even
more dastardly motives. They sought not only to remove people from
“their” land, but to do so in such a heinous way to ensure that
the various groups could never again tolerate living
together."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Bosnia and
Yugoslavia were on a "World War I" timeline, meaning that their
crisis wars occurred around the time of WW I, and then repeated 60-80
years later. The Iran/Iraq war (1980-88) and the Syria/Lebanon war
(1976-1982) are other examples of wars on the WW I timeline, and
these wars were full of similar atrocities.

Americans and Westerners in general think that they're more civilized,
and immune to these atrocities, but nothing could be further from the
truth. Western countries, for the most part are on the "World War II
timeline." These same kinds of atrocities occurred in WW II, and when
these wars recur 60-80 years after the end of WW II, these Americans
and Westerners will be subject to the same kinds of atrocities.

BBC and
inSerbia (Belgrade) and B92 (Belgrade) and Understanding Yugoslavia

****
**** What could trigger another world war?
****

Consider the following events of the last 15 years:

• When the events of September 11, 2001, occurred, President
  George W Bush declared war on Afghanistan within 24 hours. America
  won that war very quickly, and no one intervened on the side of
  Afghanistan. If, say, China or Pakistan or Russia had intervened to
  support Afghanistan, then there might have been a new world war.
  
• In 2006, when two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped near the border
  with Lebanon, Israel panicked and launched a war with Hezbollah within
  four hours, with no plan and no objectives. No other country came to
  the defense of Hezbollah. If, say, Iran or Syria had entered the war
  on the side of Hezbollah, then it might have spiraled into a regional
  and world war.
  
• In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and annexed the provinces in the
  sovereign territory of Georgia: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. No
  country came to the defense of Georgia. More recently, no country has
  come to the defense of Ukraine, when Russia annexed Crimea.
  
• China has annexed properties belonging to the Philippines and
  Vietnam in the South China Sea, and no country has come to the
  latter's defense. Furthermore, China has repeatedly threatened
  military action against Taiwan, and the Senkaku island governed by
  Japan. If the U.S. intervenes in any of these situations, then the
  result will spiral into war.

These are all modern day examples of situations that are similar to
the Austria-Hungary occupation and annexation of Bosnia in the late
1800s. In all these modern day examples, there were many actions that
took place very quickly -- within a few hours or a day or two. If a
situation were going out of control, there would be no time for quiet
contemplation or debates in the defunct United Nations Security
Council.

There have been many renewed debates recently about the causes of
World War I. One of the most frequently mentioned causes is the
"blank check" that Germany provided to Austria. Germany promised
unconditional support to Austria in its invasion of Serbia. That
brought Germany into the war. France also issued a kind of "blank
check" to Russia, promising support against Austria, and that brought
Russia into the war.

America has issued many "blank checks" to many countries. After World
War II, America signed a large number of mutual defense treaties with
other countries. These include agreements with Japan, South Korea,
Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with Australia
and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement
with all of Europe.

A mutual defense treaty is arguably not the same as a "blank check,"
but it's close enough so that a misstep or miscalculation on the
part of any country could start a world war.

In 1914, it took the action of just one young man to trigger 16
million deaths. The fighting ranged from Gallipoli and the
Dardanelles Campaign — where Newfoundlanders fought and died alongside
Indians, Australians and New Zealanders — to the Balkans, the killing
fields of the Western Front, the waters off Argentina, and in the
Pacific where the Imperial Japanese Navy fought on the same side as
Britain and France, grabbing German colonies and outposts in China and
Micronesia.

The Japanese sent warships to the Mediterranean and off the coast of
South Africa, and were involved with Canadian, Czech and British
troops in the Siberian Intervention against Communist Russia, during
the last days of war and for several months thereafter.

One of the ironies of The Great War was that Gavrilo Princip's
assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, was
opportunistic. The driver of Ferdinand's vehicle took a wrong turn,
and the wrong turn brought Ferdinand into shooting range of Princip.
If the driver had not taken that wrong turn, then something else would
have had to trigger The Great War, and Gavrilo Princip would not have
a monument dedicated to him.

And that shows how easy it is for a misstep or miscalculation to lead
to war. BBC
and National Post (Toronto)

****
**** West African Ebola outbreak is now the worst in history
****

According to the latest figures from the World Health Organization
(WHO), there have been more than 635 cases of Ebola across Guinea,
Liberia and Sierra Leona, with at least 399 deaths. Those figures are
substantially higher than when I wrote about this
four days ago. Ebola can spread rapidly through a
population because it's spread by touch, especially with the bodily
fluids of a person who is infected, but has not yet shown symptoms.
WHO officials are now saying there is a real danger that it could
spread to neighboring countries, such as the Ivory Coast and Guinea
Bissau. There's no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since Ebola is
only spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected
person, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the air.
USA Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gavrilo Princip, Mlada Bosna, Young Bosnia,
Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary, Bosnia,
Nebojsa Radmanovic, Jovan Mojsilovic,
Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, Russia, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria,
Lebanon, Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Philippines, Vietnam, South China Sea, Taiwan, Japan, Senkaku,
Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, Guinea,
Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Guinea Bissau

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Xenakis Mentions the Yugoslavian Timeline, But Fails to mention Tito and Ante Pavelic or 1940s Yugoslavia.

*** 30-Jun-14 World View -- Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks a Church, but flees from bees and snakes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks a Church, but flees from bees and snakes
• Bank of International Settlements warns of 'euphoric markets' and high debt

****
**** Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks a Church, but flees from bees and snakes
****

Terrorists, assumed to be Boko Haram, killed dozens of people on
Sunday in an attack on three villages in northeast Nigeria, including
one targeting worshippers at a church. That attacks took place only a
few miles from Chibok, where Boko Haram abducted over 200 schoolgirls
several weeks ago.

There are new terrorist attacks every few days in Nigeria, including
gunfights, suicide and car bombs, and abductions of young girls and
boys. The Nigerian army and government is viewed as helpless against
the crimes of Boko Haram.

However, Boko Haram may be facing a new enemy, which they themselves
fear may be supernatural. Some members of Boko Haram have been
arrested while fleeing a forest hideout, because of what they believe
are spiritual attacks from mysterious snakes and bees, which had
killed many of their leaders. According to one of the fleeing
terrorists:

<QUOTE>"Most of us are fleeing because there are too many
snakes and bees now in the forest. Once they bite, they disappear
and the victims do not last for 24 hours.

We were told that the aggrieved people who had suffered from our
deadly mission, including the ghosts of some of those we killed,
are the ones turning into the snake and bees. Our leaders fled,
too."<END QUOTE>

According to another member, "They believe the Chibok people are using
juju to pursue us because of their children said to have been taken by
our leaders." Reuters and Vanguard (Nigeria)

****
**** Bank of International Settlements warns of 'euphoric markets' and high debt
****

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which is the
international institution that was created during the 1930s Great
Depression to coordinate individual countries' central banks, issued
its 2014 annual reports with warnings that the financial markets are
too "euphoric" and have become detached from reality, particularly as
regards the use of debt and quantitative easing.

According to the report:

<QUOTE>"The global economy continues to face serious
challenges. Despite a pickup in growth, it has not shaken off its
dependence on monetary stimulus. Monetary policy is still
struggling to normalize after so many years of extraordinary
accommodation. Despite the euphoria in financial markets,
investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity,
large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and
acquisitions. And despite lackluster long-term growth prospects,
debt continues to rise. There is even talk of secular
stagnation."<END QUOTE>

According to the report, "Financial markets have been exuberant over
the past year, at least in AEs, dancing mainly to the tune of central
bank decisions. Volatility in equity, fixed income and foreign
exchange markets has sagged to historical lows. Obviously, market
participants are pricing in hardly any risks." This means that it's
quantitative easing and "money printing" by the Fed and other central
banks have fed into financial markets, removing any risks and
creating imbalances, as long as the money printing continues.

The BIS attributes these problems to the fact that the world economy
has been in a "balance sheet recession," a term that we discussed at
length in 2009 in "Fiscal stimulus programs in 1930s and today"
, about the findings of
Richard C. Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute.

The report notes that public debt worldwide is now considerably higher
than it was in 2007, before the current financial crisis began.
According to the BIS, balance sheet recessions have two key features.

<QUOTE>"First, they are very costly (Chapter III). They tend
to be deeper, give way to weaker recoveries, and result in
permanent output losses: output may return to its previous
long-term growth rate but hardly to its previous growth path. No
doubt, several factors are at work. Booms make it all too easy to
overestimate potential output and growth as well as to misallocate
capital and labour. And during the bust, the overhangs of debt and
capital stock weigh on demand while an impaired financial system
struggles to oil the economic engine, damaging productivity and
further eroding long-term prospects.

Second, as growing evidence suggests, balance sheet recessions are
less responsive to traditional demand management measures (Chapter
V). One reason is that banks need to repair their balance sheets.
As long as asset quality is poor and capital meagre, banks will
tend to restrict overall credit supply and, more importantly,
misallocate it. As they lick their wounds, they will naturally
retrench. But they will keep on lending to derelict borrowers (to
avoid recognizing losses) while cutting back on credit or making
it dearer for those in better shape. A second, even more
important, reason is that overly indebted agents will wish to pay
down debt and save more. Give them an additional unit of income,
as fiscal policy would do, and they will save it, not spend
it. Encourage them to borrow more by reducing interest rates, as
monetary policy would do, and they will refuse to oblige. During a
balance sheet recession, the demand for credit is necessarily
feeble. The third reason relates to the large sectoral and
aggregate imbalances in the real sector that build up during the
preceding financial boom - in construction, for instance. Boosting
aggregate demand indiscriminately does little to address them. It
may actually make matters worse if, for example, very low interest
rates favor sectors where too much capital is already in
place."<END QUOTE>

Generational Dynamics predicts that the global financial crisis is far
from over, and that there is much worse to come. Bank of International Settlements



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Chibok,
Bank of International Settlements, BIS,
balance sheet recessions, Richard C Koo

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Originally Posted by apollonian

"Wonkette" Ought To Get Real, Heed To Truth

U need to get hip w. simple facts. There was no genocide of Jews during WWII--and there's no proof or evidence for this, certainly not documentary or physical. Rather, Jews are foremost mass-murderers, this going back to ancient times when they rioted in the streets of Alexandria, Egypt, remarked by the Romans of the time, further recorded by Gibbon in his "Decline and Fall...."

If u ck Jew's main document, the Talmud, u quickly see Jews are at war w. all gentiles, it being not merely acceptable, but virtuous to kill and lie to gentiles; this is easily verified. The Cabala enjoins Jews to kill all gentiles--these are just the facts. And note Jews of race are loyal to the leaders, Jews of religion.

Don't forget Jews overwhelmingly headed the early Bolshevik regime which killed millions of Russians and Ukrainians--that's what Nazis were specifically reacting to and against. Jews of the Donmeh, in Turkey, were behind the mass-murder of the Christian Armenians.

After WWII up to 13 million German civilians were mass-murdered at behest of Jews, esp. Eisenhower and Morganthau--just ck James Baque's work.

And when u consider Jews headed the financial machinery of the empires, esp. British, u quickly see how they presided over the mass-murder of Irish in the 1840s, the Indians of India, and the Boers of S. Africa.

Nowadays there are numerous works and web-sites which have the facts readily available. So u really ought to heed to truth rather than staying addicted to the Pharisaic fashion for mindless repeating lies and prop. which bolsters and props the present genocide going on in the middle east, for example, over a million Iraqis having died since the American/NATO incursion of 2003.

They're heeeerrrrre!

Seriously, the sickness that will give us the war of a Billion dead, is right here in the form of the "apollonian" handle.

*** 1-Jul-14 World View -- ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim
• Threats to Kingdom of Jordan may require US and Israeli troops
• Pentagon announces additional 300 troop deployment to Iraq
• What do we call ISIS now?
• Israel threatens revenge for deaths of three kidnapped teenagers

****
**** ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim
****


Wanted poster for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) announced that it's
changing its name to just "Islamic State," is declaring the territory
it controls in Syria and Iraq to be a "Caliphate," and is demanding
allegiance from all Muslims worldwide to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the
head of ISIS.

The demand that that all Muslims worldwide pledge allegiance to
al-Baghdadi is laughable. He won't even get allegiance from many
people in ISIS itself, such as the former officers in Saddam's
Baathist army who are currently in ISIS only because they want to
fight against the regime of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

In fact, ISIS's demand for allegiance from all Muslims worldwide is
likely to infuriate jihadists in al-Qaeda linked groups, and may
encourage fights among jihadist groups. In Syria, the terrorists in
the Islamic Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra ("Victory Battlefront") will
almost certainly not be willing to pledge allegiance.

Whether ISIS's "Islamic State" will last more than a few weeks or
months remains to be seen. ISIS claims that the border between Syria
and Iraq, which was set up by evil Westerners following World War I,
has now been erased forever. However, that border has survived
generational crisis wars in both Syria and Iraq in the 1980s, so the
boundary is probably more solid than analysts expect.

None of this is to underestimate the danger from ISIS, particularly
because ISIS has captured billions of dollars worth of American
weapons including tanks, humvees, trucks, rockets, artillery pieces,
rifles, ammunition, helicopters, and other heavy weaponry, from
storehouses in Mosul that were supposedly being guarded by the Iraqi
army. ISIS is already quickly making good use of those weapons not
only in Iraq, but also in Syria. AP and LA Times

****
**** Threats to Kingdom of Jordan may require US and Israeli troops
****

Officials in the Kingdom of Jordan fear that with the new weapons
stash and bank account of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS),
and with their success in Iraq and Syria, that Jordan will be their
next target. Jordanian officials estimate that there are some 2,000
Jordanian jihadists who are already members of ISIS or another
terrorist group. In southern Jordan, in the town of Maan, Bedouin
jihadists are demonstrating in favor of ISIS. Jordan's security
forces have ringed the town.

However, not all extremists in Jordan are pleased with the prospect of
an invasion by ISIS. A leader of Jordan's Salafi movement is quoted
as saying:

<QUOTE>"We warned those who are aligned with the Islamic
State not to go out and rally or to take any action in Jordan, as
it is outside their religiously sanctioned mission and would hand
a gift to Jordanian authorities trying to depict us as terrorists.
... Unfortunately, these are kids who know very little about their
own religion, about jihad, and are not willing to answer or listen
to anybody."<END QUOTE>

If the Bedouin jihadists combine with ISIS, it would bring an Islamist
revolt to King Abdullah, and an Islamist army right to the door of
Israel. The Jordanian army may be stretched too thin to cope with all
the threats, and the 12,000 US soldiers and USAF F-16 fighter squadron
already in Jordan may get involved. Israeli forces may get involved
as well. Ammon News
and Economist and Debka

****
**** Pentagon announces additional 300 troop deployment to Iraq
****

On Monday, June 16, President Obama notified Congress
that about 275 U.S. military personnel were
deploying to Iraq to provide support and security for U.S. personnel
and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. On Thursday, June 20, President Obama announced
that 300
additional military advisors would be sent to Iraq. Since then, the USS Bataan, with 1000 marines,
was
the seventh warship to head for the Persian Gulf.

Now on Monday, the Pentagon announced that an additional
300 more troops are being sent to Iraq. According to the
announcement:

<QUOTE>"Capabilities provided include a detachment of
helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, which will bolster
airfield and travel route security. Similar to the U.S. security
personnel who arrived in Baghdad earlier this month to provide
support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in
Baghdad, they will integrate with existing U.S. embassy security
teams."<END QUOTE>

According to CNN, the purpose of the new deployment is to
protect the Baghdad airport, which must be protected from ISIS
at all costs.

This brings to 800 the total number of US troops in Iraq, almost three
times as many as in President Obama's original announcement on June
16. Department of Defense and CNN

****
**** What do we call ISIS now?
****

The naming of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has always
been somewhat chaotic. Some media call it ISIL, others ISIS. Some
call it Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Levant or al-Sham.
Months ago, I tried to finesse the problem by referring to "The
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL),"
which was kind of a cute and ironic way of covering all the bases. I
finally gave that up in the main articles, because it was too clunky,
though in the keywords section at the end, I still use something like
"Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL."

So now we have a new name, "Islamic State," adding to the chaos. So I
can finesse this in the keywords section with: "Islamic State / in
Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL." That should cover
everything for now. What should I do in the article text? Maybe
"Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS, ISIS)." Or maybe I'll just
stick with ISIS for a while, and see what other people do.

There's one more name that you'll sometimes see in the press: DAESH,
which it's the Arabic form of ISIL, meaning that it's the initials of
the Arabic words for Islamic State in Syria and al-Sham.

****
**** Israel threatens revenge for deaths of three kidnapped teenagers
****

Three Israeli teenagers who were abducted on June 10
were found dead on Monday, in a pit in the
West Bank. They had been the subject of an extensive manhunt
throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of Palestinians,
mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the three were "kidnapped and
murdered in cold blood by animals" and promised: "Hamas will pay."
Hamas is threatening retaliation for any attempt to punish Hamas.
BBC
and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Syria, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Nouri al-Maliki, Mosul,
Islamic Front, Jabhat al-Nusra, Victory Battlefront,
Jordan, Maan, Bedouins, Salafis, Israel, King Abdullah
Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu

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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

They're heeeerrrrre!

Seriously, the sickness that will give us the war of a Billion dead, is right here in the form of the "apollonian" handle.

Apollonian judging from his posts is a full-fledged white supremacist. He Will conceal his aims through propagandistic bombast and exhortations of "race-realism" and will blame everything bad on Jews and other minorities. Most likely he also regards Russia and Iran's regimes as beacons a "freedom" and "true values" when those two regimes seek the destruction of modernity itself as well as the annihilation of everything enlightened and positive from the human consciousness.

Originally Posted by apollonian

I will "conceal"?--u ought not judge others by ur low standards, comrade. I don't conceal as I'm not afraid of weaklings like u, u may be sure. Unlike creatures of ur sort, I suspect, u'll note I give substantial references and premises for my assertions.

Ok, apollonian simple question, what is your opinion of the current contest between the US, Russia, and Iran?

*** 2-Jul-14 World View -- Ukraine's forces assault pro-Russian separatists as cease-fire ends

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine's forces assault pro-Russian separatists as cease-fire ends
• China's neighbors react to new South China Sea claims
• In face of China's increased aggression, Japan reinterprets its constitution

****
**** Ukraine's forces assault pro-Russian separatists as cease-fire ends
****


Petro Poroshenko visits the Ukrainian troops last week (AP)

Both Ukraine government forces and pro-Russian separatists in ease
Ukraine appear to be digging in for a protracted conflict, as a dozen
or so people were killed on Tuesday in firefights between the two
groups. The government forces began an assault on the pro-Russian
separatist positions after Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko called
an end to a 10 day old cease-fire.

Poroshenko had declared a unilateral 7-day cease-fire on June 20, and
then extended it for three more days. However, during the cease-fire,
Russian-led forces continued attacking Ukrainian fixed positions,
killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers. At the same time, U.S. and Nato
intelligence ascertained that during the unilateral cease-fire, Russia
transferred additional tanks, armored personnel carriers,
anti-aircraft guns and other hardware to the Russian-backed fighters.

Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is a war criminal providing
supplies of heavy weapons to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to
conduct his "industrial strength" torture and extermination of
civilians. Putin has no ethics or morals, and in Ukraine was playing
the usual game of calling for peaceful negotiations, using the time to
rearm his troops. Putin and European leaders all were pressuring
Poroshenko to extend the cease-fire past June 30, but he was receiving
a great deal of internal pressure not to force his own armed forces to
stand still as sitting ducks for Russian-supplied weapons.

On Tuesday, Poroshenko gave a nationally televised speech ending the
cease-fire:

<QUOTE>"After a June 30 evening meeting of the the National
Security and Defense Council of Ukraine I, as Commander-in-Chief,
have decided not to pursue a unilateral cease-fire.

Protection of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, safety and
life of civilians requires not only defensive but also offensive
operations against terrorist militants.

The Armed Forces, National Guard, the State Border Guard Service,
Security Service have received appropriate instructions. ...

We will attack and liberate our land. Non-renewal of the ceasefire
- is our response to terrorists, rebels, looters, and to all those
who are making fun of civilians, who are paralyzing the work of
regional economy, who steal the payments of salaries, pensions,
stipends, who undermine and destroy railroad plumbing, who have
deprived people of normal, peaceful life. ...

Everyone who stood in the way of armed resistance to lawful
authority, but realizing that mistake and wants to correct it, as
president, I guarantee FAILURE to justice. Condition One -
voluntarily lay down their arms."<END QUOTE>

Vladimir Putin responded as follows:

<QUOTE>"Unfortunately, President Poroshenko has taken the
decision to resume military actions, and we – meaning myself and
my colleagues in Europe – could not convince him that the way to
reliable, firm and long-term peace can’t lie through the war.

So far, Petro Poroshenko had no direct relation to orders to take
military action. Now he has taken on this responsibility in
full. Not only military, but also political, more importantly.

Everything that’s going on in Ukraine is of course the internal
business of the Ukrainian government, but we are painfully sorry
that people die, civilians."<END QUOTE>

Given his support of torture and genocide in Syria, I doubt very much
that Putin is "painfully sorry" that civilians die. Also, there has
been no confirmation that his "colleagues in Europe" agreed with his
version of the discussions. Australian Broadcasting and Jamestown and Voice of Russia and Ukraine's government (Trans)

****
**** China's neighbors react to new South China Sea claims
****

President Obama's recent visit to Asia was, like many of his foreign
trips, supposed to reduce hostilities and encourage peaceful
negotiations, especially between China and its neighbors. Instead, it
seems to have encouraged China to more aggressively assert its claims
to the entire South China Sea, including regions that have
historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan
and the Philippines. China is building a network of airstrips and
military garrisons in the South China Sea in clear violation of
international law.

China has updated its famous "nine-dash map," which depicts its
sovereignty over the entire South China Sea with a new
map that signals China's treatment of its territorial claims
as a "core interest," meaning that any compromise in the South
China Sea would be equivalent to giving away a part of mainland
China. This is consistent with China's repeated statements
indicating that it will annex the entire South China Sea and
declare war on anyone that tries to stop them.

A web site reader recently wrote the following:

<QUOTE>"Mr. Xenakis, you sir are very good in your craft. I
may not have heard or read about most of the international
incidents here in your column, but your articulation about China's
strong-armed annexation of a string of islets and shoals belonging
to the Philippines is a fact I can definitely affirm myself. Proof
is that one of these shoals, Panatag shoal and the seas
surrounding it, has been a common fishing ground of my ancestors
even before WW2. Now this area is surrounded by hundreds of large
Chinese fishing trawlers, sucking everything from a grain-sized
shrimp to giant, 10-pounder oysters. And these illegal fishermen
are escorted by a numbers of Chinese coast guard ships armed with
cal. 50 machine guns and powerful water cannons, used to
intimidate and deter us Filipino fish folks from our
livelihood."<END QUOTE>

China's relations with its neighbors continue to deteriorate, bringing
increasing criticism. Diplomatic relations with Vietnam and the
Philippines have become increasingly hostile, and the two countries
are forming an alliance with Japan against China. Even Singapore,
which has always been very cautious about China, is now speaking out,
decrying China's militaristic approach. Reuters and Lowy Interpreter

****
**** In face of China's increased aggression, Japan reinterprets its constitution
****

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has won his battle to partially
abandon his country's self-defense only military policy by
getting his cabinet to approve a reinterpretation of Article 9
of the Constitution, the clause that permits military activity
only for self-defense.

The change reinterprets the clause to allow Japan to use military
action to come to the aid of an ally under military attack.
According to Abe:

<QUOTE>"We will not resort to the use of force (solely) with
the aim of defending other countries. By being fully prepared to
deal with any situation, Japan can foil any attempt to wage war
against Japan."<END QUOTE>

According to the reinterpretation of the self-defense clause, Japan
will use only the minimum force necessary, and only when the attack on
the ally poses a clear danger to Japan. Japan Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
China, South China Sea, Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore,
Japan, Shinzo Abe

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*** 3-Jul-14 World View -- Airport security to increase as Yemen bomb makers join with Syrian jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jerusalem violence triggered by 'price tag' killing of Palestinian teen
• China bans Ramadan fasting for Uighurs in Xinjiang province
• Muslim players at World Cup Football (Soccer) face Ramadan problems
• Airport security to increase as Yemen bomb makers join with Syrian jihadists

****
**** Jerusalem violence triggered by 'price tag' killing of Palestinian teen
****


Far-right Israeli protesters block intersection in Jerusalem, shouting 'Death to Arabs'

A 16 year old Palestinian teenager was abducted from outside his home
in east Jerusalem, and forced into a car that sped off. His burned
body was found hours later in a vacant lot, triggering massive
violence.

The crime is believed to be a "price tag" attack by Israeli settlers
seeking revenge for the abduction of three Israeli teenagers on June
10. Their dead bodies were found on Monday, triggering large protests
by Israelis. Anger was growing among Israelis, and on Tuesday and
Wednesday there were hours of protests by far-right Israelis shouting
"Death to Arabs." The death of the Palestinian teen followed, leading
to rock throwing by Palestinian protesters, met by teargas and rubber
bullets from Israeli security forces.

The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by far-right Israeli
settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians or IDF
soldiers in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate
illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by
Palestinians. The attacks have usually been against mosques or other
property, and sometimes even Christian property, but they've
occasionally crossed the line into violence against Palestinians. The
abduction and murder of a Palestinian teen would be a major escalation
in the price tag attacks.

Violence has been growing in the West Bank, and there have been a
flurry of rockets from Gaza targeting residences in Israel. It
remains to be seen whether this violence continues to spiral upward,
or subsides. International Middle East Media Center (Gaza) and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel

****
**** China bans Ramadan fasting for Uighurs in Xinjiang province
****

In the face of increasing numbers of terrorist acts by Muslim Uighurs
from China's northwest Xinjiang province, Chinese authorities had
issued orders that Uighurs are not permitted to take part in
traditional fasting during the holy month of Ramadan, which runs this
year from Saturday, June 28th through the evening of Monday, July 28.
Uighurs will be prevented from fasting in schools and public
offices, and inspections will be made on Uighur residences.

It's hard for me, at least, to figure out how preventing Uighurs from
fasting is going to help quell terrorist activities. Chinese
authorities have been trying for years to restrict Muslim practices in
Xinjiang, and have flooded the province with Han Chinese to force
assimilation, but with little success.

The Uighur separatists have never been closely linked to the
international jihadist movement. The ten million Uighurs in China
speak a Turkic language and practice Sufi Islam, while al-Qaeda, for
example, are mostly Arabic-speaking Sunnis. But increasing
restrictions on Muslim practices in Xinjiang province appear to be
catching the attention of Muslim militants outside of China. If the
Uighurs become part of the worldwide Muslim militant movement, China
will have only itself to blame. AP and Economist

****
**** Muslim players at World Cup Football (Soccer) face Ramadan fasting problems
****

Muslims playing at World Cup Football (Soccer) matches in Brazil,
including players from Algeria, Belgium, France and Germany, are faced
with the requirement of fasting all day during the June 28 to July 28
Ramadan period.

Researchers have found that for Muslim athletes during Ramadan, both
aerobic and anaerobic activity diminish during fasting, and foot
speed, agility, dribbling speed, and endurance all decline
significantly. The annual observance of Ramadan is one of the Five
Pillars of Islam, and the act of fasting is said to cleanse the soul
by freeing it from harmful impurities. Deadspin.com

****
**** Airport security to increase as Yemen bomb makers join with Syrian jihadists
****

US officials will increase security at American airports and at
overseas airports with direct flights to the United States. The exact
measures have not been revealed, but could include increased random
screening of passengers and tighter controls on footware, mobile
phones, and computers.

The increased security follows from reports that legendary bomb-maker
Ibrahim al-Asiri, who developed the shoe bomb for Al-Qaeda on the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, is working on new bomb
configurations that will escape existing airport detection
capabilities, and is working with the jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra
(Islamic Front) in Syria. Syria is of interest to al-Asiri because
thousands of young men from Europe and America have been traveling to
Syria to train to be terrorists and fight the Syrian regime.

So the nightmare scenario is that al-Asiri develops an undetectable
bomb, and gives to a European or American al-Nusra jihadist with a
clean passport, who detonates it during a flight. AP and Irish Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Jerusalem, price tag,
West Bank, Gaza, Ibrahim al-Asiri,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Yemen,
Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic Front

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*** 4-Jul-14 World View -- Israel masses troops on Gaza border and violence escalates in Jerusalem

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel masses troops on Gaza border and violence escalates in Jerusalem
• China reaffirms plans to annex India's Arunachal Pradesh province
• China's Xi Jinping visits S. Korea and disparages N. Korea

****
**** Israel masses troops on Gaza border and violence escalates in Jerusalem
****


Israeli policeman aims his weapon during clashes with Palestinians on Thursday (AP)

Israel is facing escalating violence on two fronts -- barrages of
rockets from Gaza and street violence in Jerusalem -- a day after a
Palestinian teen was abducted, burnt and killed, apparently in revenge
by Israeli settlers for the abduction and deaths of three Israeli
teens. Both the Israeli and Palestinian populations are expressing
deep deep anger, and expressing a desire for retribution and revenge.

Israel's warplanes have been targeting "Hamas terror sites" in the
Gaza Strip, in response to over 20 rockets fired from Gaza into Israel
since Wednesday. Palestinian officials say that 10 civilians were
wounded. In Israel, two houses were damaged, but no injuries were
reported.

Reports indicate that Israel's cabinet is split on whether to launch
an all-out attack on Hamas in Gaza, or to assassinate Hamas leaders.
At the very least, it's expected that Israel will wait at least a day
to see if the violence subsides before undertaking any military
operations. VOA and Washington Post and Jerusalem Post

****
**** China reaffirms plans to annex India's Arunachal Pradesh province
****

China reaffirmed its plans to annex other countries' territories in
the South China Sea by publishing a new map, as we described two days ago.
The new map
has raised concerns in Vietnam, the Philippines and other neighbors.

It turns out that this map also similarly reaffirms China's plans to
annex India's province of Arunachal Pradesh, which China refers to as
"South Tibet." The map shows Arunachal Pradesh as part of China.

Because of the threat from China, India's new prime minister Narendra
Modi has announced a plan to impart "military training" to people
living in areas close to the China-India border. The government plans
to train border populations at the level of a paramilitary force and
even give them arms training so that in times of emergency they can be
utilized. According to India's Home Ministry, "[The] border
population makes the eyes and ears of a government on the border. They
are the biggest bulwark against any aggression by the enemy as they
live there and watch every movement." The Diplomat and Times of India

****
**** China's Xi Jinping visits S. Korea and disparages N. Korea
****

China's president Xi Jinping made his first state visit to South Korea
on Thursday, and joined South Korean president Park Geun-hye in
criticizing North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The visit sent
some terse messages from Xi to North Korea's Kim Jong-un. This is the
first time that a Chinese leader has visited South Korea before
visiting North Korea, and this is the first time that Xi joined with
South Korean in openly and clearly criticizing North Korean policies.
What effect this will have on Kim is of course unknown, but it
wouldn't surprise me if he defiantly steps up his nuclear weapons
program as a result. McClatchy and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Jerusalem, Gaza,
China, South China Sea, Vietnam, Philippines,
India, Arunachal Pradesh, Narendra Modi,
Xi Jinping, South Korea, North Korea,
Park Geun-hye, Kim Jong-un

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China bans Ramadan fasting for Uighurs in Xinjiang province

I'm curious how a government goes about "banning fasting"--will it involve use of feeding tubes? (Note: not doubting your story at all, John--just trying to picture how they plan to actually ban a non-action (not eating, before sundown IIUC). Kind of a ridiculous pursuit in my mind.)

Originally Posted by Alioth68

> I'm curious how a government goes about "banning
> fasting"--will it involve use of feeding tubes? (Note: not
> doubting your story at all, John--just trying to picture how they
> plan to actually ban a non-action (not eating, before sundown
> IIUC). Kind of a ridiculous pursuit in my mind.)

That was my question as well. Apparently, Chinese officials are
visiting all the schools to make sure that kids are eating, and all
the businesses (which are state-owned anyway) to make sure that adults
are eating. In addition, they're apparently sending security
officials to people's homes to make sure that housewives are eating.
The Chinese always say they want peace and harmony. So if you always
do exactly as commanded, then you'll have peace and harmony. If you
don't, then they'll kill you, and so you'll still have peace and
harmony.

*** 5-Jul-14 World View -- Activists demand restoration of the Kingdom of Hawaii

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Activists demand restoration of the Kingdom of Hawaii
• East Ukraine fighting gets bloodier as new peace talks are scheduled
• Mormons provide a free survival manual

****
**** Activists demand restoration of the Kingdom of Hawaii
****


Native Hawaiian activists are seeking to regain the Kingdom of Hawaii

Activists in Hawaii are demanding that the federal government return
the land taken from the descendants of the original Polynesian
inhabitants of Hawaii after the overthrow of the Kingdom of Hawaii in
1893. Hawaii was annexed by the United States in 1898 as a territory.
Hawaii was bombed by the Japanese in 1941, and citizens played a
crucial role in the Pacific war, raising national sentiments to make
it a state. It became a state in 1959.

In 1993, Congress passed and President Bill Clinton signed into law
what has been called the "Apology Resolution, which "apologizes to
Native Hawaiians on behalf of the people of the United States for the
overthrow of the Kingdom of Hawaii."

Last month, on June 18, the U.S. Department of Interior announced a
series of meetings to be held at various locations in Hawaii to gauge
popular sentiment about the formation of a "Native Hawaiian"
government. This would be similar to the existing governments of
Native American Indian groups, although that comparison is causing
controversy because many Native Hawaiians do not wish to be identified
as a Native American tribe.

The meetings are still ongoing, and are contentious. Some groups favor
the Native Hawaiian government proposal, while activists are demanding
that any decision be postponed for at least six months to allow the
courts to determine the constitutionality of the U.S. annexation of
Hawaii, versus whether the Kingdom of Hawaii still exists as a valid
legal entity. West Hawaii Today and Dept. of Interior and Catholic Online

****
**** East Ukraine fighting gets bloodier as new peace talks are scheduled
****

In the four days since Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko announced
the end of the 10-day unilateral cease-fire in the conflict with
pro-Russian separatists, 13 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, with
no reports on the numbers of separatists or civilians that have also
been killed.

Since the end of the cease-fire, Poroshenko has sent soldiers, combat
tanks, cannons, fighter jets and helicopters to east Ukraine, with the
objective of forcing the pro-Russian separatists to lay down their
weapons or to flee across the border back to Russia.

At the same time, Poroshenko has scheduled peace talks for Saturday
with representatives of the pro-Russian separatists. Whether the
peace talks will be held remains to be seen. Reuters and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Mormons provide a free survival manual
****

The Mormons (Church of Latter Day Saints) have prepared a manual to
help people cope with preparations from all kinds of emergencies, from
surviving an ice storm to the Avian flu to all out war. The manual is
intended for active Mormons, but anyone can download and read it. In
its 500 pages, it tells you about food preservation and storage,
emergency kits, bug out kits, ham radios, medical kits, firearms,
heating, cooking, lighting, clothing, shelter, and sanitation. As I
skimmed through this manual, it occurred to me that to prepare for
everything would be a full time job for weeks, and then still require
lots of time to keep supplies up to date. LDS AVOW (Another Voice of Warning)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hawaii, Polynesia, Japan, Apology Resolution,
Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Russia,
Mormons, Church of Latter Day Saints

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Xenakis evaluates threats to the US largely based on how aligned a country was with the US back around circa mid-1960s. In the 1960s the main threat in the middle east was Russia and pro-Russian states, therefore Syria is a major enemy of the US according to Xenakis. Islamism was not a major issue in the 1960s; therefore Xenakis mentions mortal threats to the US, but never mentions the Islamists. Iran in 1965 was a US ally, therefore Iran would by a US ally in the WW3 that Xenakis predicts. Jihadists before the collapse of the USSR were more hostile to Russia than they were to the US. Therefore to Xenakis Jihadists are not a major threat to Americans. Russia and China were the main threats to the US in 1965, therefore the US and Islamic world will fight side by side against the enemy that really wants to kill westerners, the Russians and Chinese. China believed in doctrinaire Maoism in 1965, therefore china wants to destroy all traces of capitalism everywhere. India was still largely aligned with the US in 1965, therefore India will be a US ally and not a Russian one. The attack on the US on 9/11 had nothing to do with old cold war rivalries, therefore it is unimportant according to Xenakis. In the mid-1960s our relations with Russia were better than our relations with china, Therefore Russia is our ally and China our enemy. Saudi Arabia was a US ally even back then, therefore they had nothing to do with 9/11. Russia was our main enemy in 1965, therefore to Xenakis the Taliban had to got its support from Russia or Russian-aligned nations, and not from Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Sunni states.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Xenakis evaluates threats to the US largely based on how aligned a country was with the US back around circa mid-1960s. In the 1960s the main threat in the middle east was Russia and pro-Russian states, therefore Syria is a major enemy of the US according to Xenakis. Islamism was not a major issue in the 1960s; therefore Xenakis mentions mortal threats to the US, but never mentions the Islamists. Iran in 1965 was a US ally, therefore Iran would by a US ally in the WW3 that Xenakis predicts. Jihadists before the collapse of the USSR were more hostile to Russia than they were to the US. Therefore to Xenakis Jihadists are not a major threat to Americans. Russia and China were the main threats to the US in 1965, therefore the US and Islamic world will fight side by side against the enemy that really wants to kill westerners, the Russians and Chinese. China believed in doctrinaire Maoism in 1965, therefore china wants to destroy all traces of capitalism everywhere. India was still largely aligned with the US in 1965, therefore India will be a US ally and not a Russian one. The attack on the US on 9/11 had nothing to do with old cold war rivalries, therefore it is unimportant according to Xenakis. In the mid-1960s our relations with Russia were better than our relations with china, Therefore Russia is our ally and China our enemy. Saudi Arabia was a US ally even back then, therefore they had nothing to do with 9/11. Russia was our main enemy in 1965, therefore to Xenakis the Taliban had to got its support from Russia or Russian-aligned nations, and not from Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Sunni states.

This is total gibberish.

*** 6-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinian violence spreads after new atrocities are revealed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian violence spreads after new atrocities are revealed
• Ukraine's Poroshenko claims a major victory against pro-Russian separatists

****
**** Palestinian violence spreads after new atrocities are revealed
****


Screen grab of video showing Israeli police holding down and beating 15-year-old Tarek Khdeir

The autopsy of Abu Khdeir, the Palestinian teen who was abducted,
burnt and killed on Wednesday, found soot in his respiratory canal,
indicating that he was burnt alive.

A youtube video that's gone viral shows Israeli police beating a 15
year old Palestinian boy on Thursday evening, and then arresting him.
The boy turns out to be a US citizen, Tarek Khdeir, the cousin of the
teen who was burnt alive, visiting Jerusalem from Florida to attend
his cousin's funeral.

The news of these two atrocities has triggered widespread violence,
not only in the West Bank, but also by Arab citizens of Israel. The
police beating of 15-year-old Tarek is particularly causing
international outrage and disgust.

It is widely believed, though not proven, that Abu Khdeir was lynched
and burned alive by far-right Israeli settlers, in a "price tag"
attack seeking revenge for the abduction and killing of three Israeli
Jewish teens on June 10. The attack on his cousin, as shown in
a youtube video, has added to the Palestinian fury.

Israeli fury at the Palestinians has been growing as well. Israeli
online campaigns are calling for revenge against the Arabs. After the
three Israeli teens were kidnapped, and before their dead bodies were
discovered, one web site called for the killing of one Arab an hour
until the teens were released. According to Israeli justice minister
Tzipi Livni:

<QUOTE>"It doesn’t need to end in murder to be shocking. It
is enough to see what is written on the social networks – they
have turned into a hotbed of dangerous and violent incitement.
This is not the way of the state of Israel. We must not let the
extremists win."<END QUOTE>

However, a Jerusalem Post editorial says that Israelis are fed up with
dead Jews, though it doesn't suggest how the problem can be remedied:

<QUOTE>"But something changed with the murder of these three
innocent teens. It was not just the senselessness of the act;
three defenseless teen boys killed for no reason other than that
they were Jewish, for no other purpose but to indulge Palestinian
hate. Rather, it was a feeling that this had happened one too many
times. That there was a critical mass of dead Jews that had now
been reached, beyond which the Israeli public and the world Jewish
community is not prepared to mourn any more.

That we were finally fed up. That we weren’t going to take it any
more. That we weren’t going to make peace any longer with the fact
that Jews are born to die. That Israel doesn’t have to make do
with the sight of children’s carcasses found rotting in caves. ...

And we have every right to be fed up. No nation should have to
live like this. No nation should have to die like this. Something
has to be done. The status quo is unacceptable. No-one quite knows
how it can be remedied, but what we do know is that the option of
dead Jews is no longer acceptable. We have a right to
live."<END QUOTE>

AFP and Ma'an (Bethlehem) and The National (UAE) and Jerusalem Post and YouTube

****
**** Ukraine's Poroshenko claims a major victory against pro-Russian separatists
****

Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko is claiming a major victory on
Saturday, after government troops forced pro-Russian separatists
occupying the town of Slovyansk to flee from the city, and then raised
the Ukrainian flag over the city council building. According to
Poroshenko:

<QUOTE>"This is not a complete victory yet, and it is not the
time for fireworks displays.

But the cleansing of Slovyansk from gangs who are armed to the
teeth is of huge symbolic importance. This is the start of a
turning point in the fight against the militants."<END QUOTE>

Slovyansk was the first city seized by the pro-Russian separatists
after Russia had invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula. At that
time, in early April, the separatists hoped to repeat the Crimea
experience by laying the groundwork for a Russian invasion into east
Ukraine that would allow Ukraine's south and east to be annexed to
Russia as well. Russia's president Vladimir Putin kept 50,000 troops
on Russia's border with Ukraine for several weeks, giving the
impression that Russia was about to invade. Russia also supplied the
separatists with weapons, creating the impression that if they took
control of as many cities as possible, then the Russian invasion would
proceed. However, Russia never did invade.

But Slovyansk has remained the emotional heart of the separatist
militia activities, and so its capture by Ukraine's government forces
marks a significant victory.

Reports indicate that the separatists fled to Donetsk, another
separatist stronghold. The separatists will undoubtedly make a major
stand in Donetsk, and it remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian
forces will be as successful there. CTV (Canada) and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Abu Khdeir, Tarek Khdeir, Jerusalem, Israel,
Ukraine, Russia, Petro Poroshenko, Slovyansk, Donetsk

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*** 7-Jul-14 World View -- Israeli police hold six suspects in the murder of Palestinian teen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's military attack on Taliban produces little besides chaos
• Israeli police hold six suspects in the murder of Palestinian teen
• Israeli airstrikes kill seven Gaza gunmen

****
**** Pakistan's military attack on Taliban produces little besides chaos
****


Taliban militants get their hair and beards trimmed so they won't look like killers (AFP)

The repercussions of the June 8-9 terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi
Pakistan are still being felt, in the form of a continuing military
operation to "clean out" the Taliban's hideouts and weapons stores
from North Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal area. The airport attack
seemed finally to focus the minds of Pakistan's government so that
after years of Taliban bombing of schools, mosques and markets,
something was finally going to be done.

Investigations that following the airport attack revealed that many of
the perpetrators were Uzbeks from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU), a terror group with international ambitions that we're written
about from time to time. The heavy IMU involvement in the Karachi
airport attack indicates that the IMU is experiencing a resurgence in
strength and capacity.

As of Saturday, Pakistan's military is claiming to have killed 386
militants, including dozens of Uzbeks, in the North Waziristan
operation.

This has not generated much excitement among the Pakistani public, who
are more concerned that the military operation is going to blow back
in the form of multiple revenge terrorist attacks across the country.

Some 600,000 civilians have fled their homes in North Waziristan, many
running across the border to Afghanistan, straining resources there,
or else traveling north to the town of Bannu. Bannu’s limited civic
services were largely unable to cater to the needs of its estimated
700,000 population, but it is now required to cope with the influx of
almost 500,000 internally displaced persons as well as their more than
100,000 cattle.

There are numerous reports that thousands of militants figured out
that this military operation was coming, and fled the area before it
started. The figure of 386 seems small compared to the thousands who
have fled.

We're even seeing chatty news stories about militants who running to
barber shops to get their hair and beards trim, so that they'll look
like "ordinary people," rather than murderers.

Other stories reveal that these hard core militants who demand that
everyone else follow austere Sharia law, avoiding anything from the
West don't practice what they preach. The extort money from poor
civilians and use it to buy French and Turkish perfumes, body sprays
and soaps, presumably so they'll smell good the next they rape and
decapitate a pretty girl.

The military has been helpless against the Taliban for years, and
there's no reason to assume that things have changed much.
Furthermore, some of the Taliban groups are actually funded by
Pakistani agencies, to have them at the ready for a future war with
India, possibly in Kashmir. So most Pakistanis appear to be cynical
about the attempt to "clean out" the Taliban, and are more worried
about how the Taliban are going to get revenge than anything else.
The National (UAE) and The News (Pakistan) and Arab News and AFP

****
**** Israeli police hold six suspects in the murder of Palestinian teen
****

Israeli officials are hoping that the swift action by police in
identifying the killers of the Palestinian teen Muhammad Abu Khdeir
within four days of his being lynched and burned alive will cool off
the tension between Israelis and Palestinians. Six young Jewish males
were arrested on Sunday on suspicion of having perpetrated the crime.
Most Israelis are sickened and disgusted by the lynching, but from
reports I've read I get the impression that there is sizable minority
of Israelis, probably mostly in younger generations, who consider the
lynching to be deserved retribution and justice. There has been a
small but growing Israeli anti-Palestinian terrorist gangs for a
number of years, but the murder of Khdeir is exceptional for its
brutality. The worst case scenario for Israel is the realization of a
tribal and communal war waged by hatred and revenge on both sides,
spiraling out of control. AP and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Israeli airstrikes kill seven Gaza gunmen
****

Israel launched a series of air strikes on Gaza early on Monday in
response to repeated rocket fire on southern Israel, and Hamas said
that seven of its gunmen were killed. Israeli military authorities
confirmed the strikes, saying they "responded to rocket attacks
against southern Israel," targeting 9 "terror" sites and concealed
rocket launchers. They said the attacks had made "direct hits."

The rocket attacks from Gaza have split the Israeli cabinet, according
to reports. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is advocating a
cautious approach, in order to avoid further inflaming the situation,
while several ministers, led by foreign minister Avigdor Liberman,
criticized Netanyahu for the tepid response to rocket fire from Gaza.
Reuters and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Taliban, North Waziristan,
Karachi, Jinnah International Airport,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, Bannu, Afghanistan,
Israel, Muhammad Abu Khdeir, Gaza Hamas,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Avigdor Liberman

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Mormons provide a free survival manual
****

The Mormons (Church of Latter Day Saints) have prepared a manual to
help people cope with preparations from all kinds of emergencies, from
surviving an ice storm to the Avian flu to all out war. The manual is
intended for active Mormons, but anyone can download and read it.

From the manual's title page:

This publication has not been endorsed or produced by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, and its contents and the opinions it expresses are those of the Editor and the separate authors.

Anyone can put something together "for Church members" and there are plenty of survivalists out there. Anything officially by the Church would be on lds.org or one of the Church's other official websites (e.g. providentliving.org).

*** 8-Jul-14 World View -- Young Jewish males confess to lynching, as Israel and Gaza prepare for war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel and Gaza prepare for war after rocket barrage
• Three young Jewish males confess to killing Palestinian teen
• Russia's Vladimir Putin appears to be the loser in Ukraine
• Photos shared with the #GazaUnderAttack hashtag are often deceptive

****
**** Israel and Gaza prepare for war after rocket barrage
****


A rocket being launched from the Gaza Strip in 2012

Izz al-Din al-Qassam, the military wing of Hamas in Gaza, is taking a
responsibility for the barrage of 80 rockets launched from Gaza into
southern Israel on Monday. A source in Israel's Defense Force (IDF)
is saying that a decision has been made to launch a military offensive
into Gaza. 1,500 reservists have been called up, and infantry assault
units are deployed on the Gaza border. These will be backed up by
intensified air strikes against the Gaza rocket launchers. Jerusalem Post and Debka and Daily Star (Lebanon)

****
**** Three young Jewish males confess to killing Palestinian teen
****

Of the six young Jewish extremists arrested on Sunday for the murder
of Palestinian teen Muhammad Abu Khdeir, three have confessed under
intensive questioning, according to Israeli officials. According to
one source, one of the suspects is cooperating with police, and has
incriminated the others. The confessions are supported by security
footage taken from a camera in a nearby building, showing the faces of
two of the suspects. However, the suspects have not yet been
permitted to see their lawyers.

It's thought that 15-year-old Khdeir was lynched and burnt to death in
revenge for the abduction and killing on June 10 of three Israeli
teens. The lynching triggered massive riots and demonstrations
by Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and may
also have triggered the barrage of rocket attacks from Gaza.
Israeli officials moved quickly to investigate and find the
murders of Khdeir in the hope of cooling the tensions between
Israelis and Palestinians. On Monday evening, after the
announcement of the confessions, the rioting had quieted down
considerably.

It's believed that the murderers of the three Israeli teens are hiding
out in the West Bank, and that the Palestinian Authority is doing
little of nothing to bring them to justice. There have been no
arrests in the case of the three Israeli teens. Jerusalem Post

****
**** Russia's Vladimir Putin appears to be the loser in Ukraine
****

Last week's announcement by Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko to
end the unilateral cease-fire apparently caught Russia by surprise,
though the greatest surprise was Saturday's decisive victory over the pro-Russian separatists in Slovyansk.
The working assumption was that Poroshenko would keep
extending the truce, thus allowing the conflict to "freeze" and making
possible the establishment of a de-facto independent "Novorossiya"
(New Russia) in eastern Ukraine.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been using such a strategy to
"freeze" the foreign policy of the U.S. and Europe for several years.
The strategy was to use the United Nations Security Council. By
vetoing every resolution, Putin was able to cripple American and
European foreign policy, but since Putin's Russia ignored the Security
Council in its own actions, he essentially had a free hand on the
world stage. This was particularly true in Syria, where Putin
provided an unlimited supply of heavy weapons to Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad for use in his genocidal attacks against his own
people.

Putin had expected Poroshenko to yield to international demands to
keep extending the cease-fire. In fact on Thursday, just before
Saturday's victory, France's president François Hollande and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel were strongly pressuring Poroshenko to resume
the cease-fire, and they were also asking Putin to mediate between the
two sides. At that point, Putin must surely have thought he was going
to get everything he wanted, and so reports indicate that the loss of
Slovyansk was an unpleasant shock.

So here's the summary:

• The US only does things with the permission of the Security
  Council, so it has been effective crippled by Russia's veto.
  
• Russia never asks the Security Council for permission, so it
  invades anyone it wants, and ignores international law all it
  likes.
  
• Similar, China annexes other countries' territories without
  asking permission from the Security Council, and without even
  allowing the United Nations to mediate border disputes.
  
• But Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko ignored all the demands to continue
  its unilateral cease-fire, and won a victory in Slovyansk that was
  apparently a surprise to everyone.

That ends today's geopolitical lesson. Jamestown and Reuters (7/3)

****
**** Photos shared with the #GazaUnderAttack hashtag are often deceptive
****

The hashtag #GazaUnderAttack is being used to organize worldwide
protests against Israel for bombing Gaza, by showing photos of the
results of the bombing. A BBC investigation has revealed that many of
the images are not from the latest conflict, and not even from Gaza.
Some date as far back as 2009 and others are from conflicts in Syria
and Iraq. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Izz al-Din al-Qassam,
Israel, Jerusalem, Muhammad Abu Khdeir,
Ukraine, Russia, Petro Poroshenko, Slovyansk, Vladimir Putin,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, China, #GazaUnderAttack

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*** 9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants.

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas says that all Israelis are now targets
• Hamas will decide whether it's war or peace

****
**** Hamas says that all Israelis are now targets
****

Several Palestinian spokesmen that I heard on Tuesday on the BBC and
al-Jazeera said that any Israeli, man, woman or child, is now a target
of Hamas, since Israel has been illegally occupying Palestinian
territory since 1948.

Hamas has been trying, in fact, to make every Israeli citizen
a target by launching hundreds of missiles into Israel from
Gaza. Some of these are Syrian-made M302 rockets that
can reach as far as Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, much farther than
Hamas's capability in the past.

This has resulted in a war of air attacks. Israel is retaliating
with its warplanes by attacking hundreds of suspected rocket
launch sites in Gaza.

Israel's Defense Force (IDF) called up 1,500 reservists on Monday, and
on Tuesday announced that it would begin calling up 40,000 more
reservists, in preparation for a possible ground invasion
into Gaza.

This does not imply that a ground invasion is imminent. It will take
a number of days or several weeks to make all the preparations
necessary for a ground invasion. In fact, Israeli officials have
suggested that they're proceeding slowly in order to Hamas room to
stand down. Jerusalem Post and BBC and
Jerusalem Post

****
**** Hamas will decide whether it's war or peace
****

First, I have to remind long-term Generational Dynamics readers that
the very first major analysis that I wrote was in May 2003, when
President George Bush issued his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which called for a
Palestinian state by 2005, side by side with Israel. In that
analysis, I wrote that the Mideast Roadmap would fail, and that in
fact the Mideast was going to re-fight the 1948 war between the Arabs
and the Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. I said that this war would be
delayed as long as the survivors of the 1948 war, particularly Yassir
Arafat and Ariel Sharon, were alive, because they remembered the
horrors of that war, and would do everything possible to keep those
horrors from being repeated.

There have been four wars since then -- the war between Israelis and
Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between
Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to
Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and
Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; and the war between Israel and Hamas in
Gaza in November, 2012.

However, none of these wars spiraled out of control because, as the
saying goes, cooler heads prevailed. And those cooler heads would
most likely be survivors of the 1948 war.

But cooler heads are disappearing as the years go by, and the
survivors die off. More and more, younger generations are determining
policy, and these are not cool heads. In the last weeks, we've seen
young Israelis call for "Death to Arabs" on social networking sites,
and we've seen what are undoubtedly younger generations of
Palestinians rioting in the West Bank and shooting off rockets in
Gaza.

More and more, you hear Palestinian leaders say that they have
no desire or motivation to seek peace. (The major exception
is Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, who is
also a 1948 war survivor.)

This is especially true in Gaza. Hamas used to have a friend in
Egypt, but the new government under Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi considers
the Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist group, and sees Hamas, which
is an offshoot of the Brotherhood, in the same way. Hamas used to
have a friend in Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but Erdogan has too
many of his own problems, especially with Syria. Hamas used to have
friends in Syria and Iran, but those friendships became diminished
when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad began his "industrial strength"
genocidal campaign against Sunni Muslims. Hamas just became part of a
"unity government" with the Palestinian Authority, but Hamas is
clearly a partner in name only, with little real influence in the
joint government.

So Hamas really has no friends left, and Gazans deeply resent
the "Gaza prison" that they live in. So there's little or no
desire, especially among young people, to show restraint in
attacking Israel.

Undoubtedly many Gazans want a war with Israel, and undoubtedly many
feel that they can win a war with Israel, when it becomes a war
between Jews and all Arabs. If all Arabs join in, then those
sentiments are undoubted right, as you can see by comparing
populations. Israel has a population of 7.8 million. The Arab
nations and territories that adjoin Israel include Gaza - 1.8 million,
West Bank - 2.7 million, Lebanon - 5.9 million, Jordan - 7.9 million,
Syria - 18.0 million, and Egypt - 86.9 million.

So that's Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs in the
adjoining countries. There's little doubt who would win that war.
And when one of the Palestinian television commentators said on
Tuesday that Israel had no right to exist because it was on
Palestinian land, he was saying that the 1948 would be re-fought, and
that this time the Arabs would win.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that the Mideast is
headed for a major war, refighting the 1948 war between Arabs and
Jews, is 100% certain. I said this in 2003 in commenting on President
Bush's Mideast Roadmap to Peace, and I've said it repeatedly since
then, especially during the recent farcical "peace process" engineered
by John Kerry and the Obama administration.

So now Israel and Hamas are headed for some kind of imminent conflict.
Will it spiral into a full-scale war between Arabs and Jews? The
Israelis don't want that, because they know they would almost
certainly lose. The Israelis can only hope that some of the Arabs
turn against each other. So whether it's war or peace is really up to
Hamas and the Palestinians. The groups launching the rockets into
Israel certainly want war, but there are still a few cooler heads
around, even in Gaza. These full-scale wars have to come in their own
time, and it may not yet be the time.

A full-scale war between Arabs and Jews is coming with absolute 100%
certainty. But whether it happens "this time" or "the next time" or
"the time after that" remains to be seen. But one of these times, it
will happen. Times of Israel and International Middle East Media Center (Gaza)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hamas, Gaza, West Bank,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
George Bush, Mideast Roadmap to Peace,
Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon, Lebanon, Turkey,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran

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*** 10-Jul-14 World View -- Israel and Hamas accuse each other of war crimes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel and Hamas accuse each other of war crimes
• US Embassy in Tel Aviv closes due to rocket fire from Gaza
• Measles spreading rapidly in China

****
**** Israel and Hamas accuse each other of war crimes
****


Israel's UN ambassador Ron Prosor

The United Nations is expected to hold crisis talks on the
Israel-Hamas war on Thursday, as the war escalates.

On Wednesday, Palestine’s Permanent Observer to the United Nations,
Riyad Mansour, said the following:

<QUOTE>"The intensification of Israel’s aggression against
the 1.7 million Palestinians imprisoned in the Gaza Strip by
Israel’s immoral blockade threatens to further destabilize the
dangerous situation on the ground and fully ignite yet another
round of deadly violence. ...

[T]he occupying Power has intensified its onslaught against the
besieged Gaza Strip in grave breach of international law,
including international humanitarian law and the relevant
provisions regarding the protection of civilians in armed conflict
and in grave breach of the prohibition of reprisals and collective
punishment against the civilian population under occupation. ...

War crimes are clearly being perpetrated by Israel against the
Palestinian people and this must be unequivocally condemned and
stopped. A strong message must be sent to Israel, the occupying
Power, to cease immediately its military campaign and abide by the
law, in order to deescalate this dangerous situation, to promote
calm, and, most importantly, to save innocent civilian
lives."<END QUOTE>

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations Ron Prosor responded, making
the following points which I'm summarizing from memory:

• No country in the world would tolerate rockets from an
  adjoining country targeting civilians in its own country.
  
• Israel is targeting military installations, and taking
  exceptional care to avoid civilians, even messaging Gazans
  with locations prior to strikes.
  
• However, Hamas is committing war crimes by crowding civilians
  around military installations to act as human shields.

Prosor's charge is confirmed by a Hamas spokesman in an interview,
translated by Memri, when asked about people "reverting to the human
shield method" of opposing Israel:

<QUOTE>"This attests to the character of our noble,
Jihad-fighting people, who defend their rights and their homes
with their bare chests and their blood. The policy of people
confronting the Israeli warplanes with their bare chests in order
to protect their homes has proven effective against the
occupation. Also, this policy reflects the character of our brave,
courageous people. We in Hamas call upon our people to adopt this
policy, in order to protect the Palestinian homes."<END QUOTE>

According to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu:

<QUOTE>"Hamas is committing a double war crime by
intentionally trying to hit Israeli citizens, and using the local
Gaza population as human shields."<END QUOTE>

The rhetoric appears to be heating up to the extent that neither side
is giving itself a way to back down. Tensions are rising and events
are moving quickly in the Mideast. It's still possible that things
will settle down and return to the usual status quo, but it's also
possible that we'll be seeing a major war within a week or two.
WAFA (Palestine) and Memri and
Jerusalem Post

****
**** US Embassy in Tel Aviv closes due to rocket fire from Gaza
****

The US Embassy in Tel Aviv, Israel, has been closed, and is providing
only "minimal services," mostly by e-mail. Some rockets and missiles
that have been launched from Gaza in the last few days have reached as
far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. According to a leaked United Nations
report, it's believed that Iran has been supplying Hamas with
long-range M-302 missiles. US Embassy in Israel and
Jerusalem Post and CS Monitor

****
**** Measles spreading rapidly in China
****

The number of cases of measles is growing rapidly in China this year.
The rise in the number of cases is being blamed on the number of
migrant workers -- 245 million migrant workers, or 18% of the
population -- and the fact that migrant workers haven't been getting
vaccinations. China Digital Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Israel, Riyad Masour, Ron Prosor,
Benjamin Netanyahu, China, measles

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*** 11-Jul-14 World View -- Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine
• Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China

****
**** A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine
****


Ukrainians in a refugee camp in southern Russia (Russia Today)

The decisive victory
of the
Ukraine government forces over the pro-Russian separatists in
Slovyansk last week has left the Russian leaders searching for a new
direction. At one extreme, a group led by Russian ultra-nationalist
Alexander Dugin, who first called for the annexation of Crimea, is
calling on Russia's president Vladimir Putin to intervene militarily
in eastern Ukraine, "to save Russia's moral authority." The
pro-Russian separatists did not even put up much of a fight, in
Slovyansk and several other cities, fleeing to other strongholds in
Donetsk and Luhansk. The leader of the separatists is insisting that
there will be no retreat from Donetsk, but Moscow fears that those two
cities will fall quickly as well, leading to total humiliation in
Moscow.

Ukraine's military offensive is continuing, with air strikes targeting
separatists positions near Donetsk, killing and dislodging them.
Ukraine's ground forces are attempting to close the border with
Russia, which has been a sieve through which Russia has supplied the
separatists with tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft
guns, and other weapons. Ukraine's government is resisting
calls for a cease-fire, and says that the "all-out" assault
on pro-Russian separatists may last another month

According to one analysis, the Russian air force could be preparing
for a covert action over Donbas to support the rebels, as a last step
short of direct intervention. In a similar conflict in 1992–1993 in
Abkhazia, Russian air force jets and helicopter gunships attacked
Georgian government positions, posing as unidentified rebel aircraft,
while Moscow stringently denied any involvement — as today it denies
sending arms and men into Donbas. If there is no ceasefire soon, the
Russian air force may go into covert action over Donbas as early as
next week. Jamestown and BBC and AFP and Jamestown

****
**** Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China
****

Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines have been forming an alliance
against China, as China has been moving to annex other countries'
territories in the South and East China Seas. Relations between
Vietnam and China have become particularly hostile since China
deployed an oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). (See
"China's neighbors react to new South China Sea claims"
from last week.)

Now Australia is signaling that it is also joining this alliance.
The change in policy was indicated in a statement by Australia's
foreign minister, Julie Bishop, during a visit by Japan's prime
minister Shinzo Abe to Australia to meet Australia's prime minister
Tony Abbott. Like many of China's neighbors, Australia had had a
policy of being careful not to anger China, for fear of retaliation.

But there was a major confrontation last November, after China
announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), demanding that
any foreign aircraft flying into the East China Sea would have to
inform China's military beforehand. ( "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands"
.)

Julie Bishop was visiting Beijing at that time, and complained about
the unilateral declaration of the ADIZ. According to reports, China's
foreign minister told her that the ADIZ was none of her business, and
he "famously tore strips off her," with cameras rolling. ("Tear
strips off somebody" is apparently an Australian expression meaning to
severely scold someone.)

So now, Bishop is explaining that she's learned some lessons from
that experience. In particular, Australia's previous policies
of reticence toward China have only caused confusion, and
that it's better to be frank than misunderstood:

<QUOTE>"China doesn’t respect weakness.

The freedom of the skies and freedom of the seas in that part of
the world is important to us because that’s where the majority of
our trade is done.

So I believed that, at that time, we had to make it clear where
we stood on unilateral action that could be seen as coercive and
could be seen to – and which did – affect our national
interests. ...

So, when something affects our national interest then we should
make it very clear about where we stand."<END QUOTE>

Bishop said she had no doubt that America would remain the pre-eminent
force internationally:

<QUOTE>"This is a debate that the US will have to have about
its role in the world. It is currently the only super power with
the military capability to act globally and the US must determine
whether it’s going to continue in that role. I believe that it
must, and it will."<END QUOTE>

Sydney Morning Herald

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Donetsk, Luhansk,
Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines,
Shinzo Abe, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop

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*** 12-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza tunnels make Israeli ground offensive dangerous but necessary

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gaza tunnels make Israeli ground offensive dangerous but necessary
• Health workers flee from West Africa as Ebola epidemic spreads

****
**** Gaza tunnels make Israeli ground offensive dangerous but necessary
****


A Palestinian tunnel in Gaza (Reuters)

Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza is targeting Hamas military
installations, but is also targeting farms or bare land and even
greenhouses. The reason is that the Palestinian militias have learned
important lessons in previous wars with Israel, and have set up
sophisticated defenses in the form of an extensive network of tunnels,
some as much as 30 meters deep. Over time, Hamas's engineers and
diggers -- known by Israel as "spiders" -- gained a great deal of
expertise in setting up "underground cities," with bunkers and
fortifications, all hooked up to electricity and oxygen. These
tunnels can hide thousands of missiles and missile launchers from
Israeli spy planes, but that's only one of their purposes.

If Israel wants to achieve its stated goal of getting rid once and for
all of Gaza's rocket launching system, it's going to need a ground
invasion to clean out all the tunnels and bunkers.

But then the web of tunnels takes on the even deadlier purpose of
trapping Israeli soldiers entering Gaza, according to a Hamas leaflet:

<QUOTE>"The Qassam Brigades’ strong point is if Israel
decides to launch a ground offensive, it would transform its
soldiers from hunters to hunted, sitting ducks caught in a
crossfire, as a result of the careful planning, preparations,
surveillance, identification of the enemy’s weak points and use of
the element of surprise to confound the Israelis and decimate them
in gun battles with fighters who would prove their superior
fighting ability.

These tunnels, dug under every street and alley in Gaza,
constitute a strength to be exploited by the brigades to
exacerbate the Israeli military’s confusion and create security
concerns that the army will be unable to deal with. This will lead
to a fundamental problem that compels it to modify its rules of
engagement with Hamas."<END QUOTE>

The tunnels also pose a threat to rural communities in Israel along
the border with Gaza. There are dozens of tunnels that can be used by
Hamas to infiltrate Israel and kill or abduct civilians and soldiers.
Al-Monitor and Jerusalem Post and Al-Monitor

****
**** Health workers flee from West Africa as Ebola epidemic spreads
****

Health workers on the front line of the spreading Ebola epidemic in
western Africa are returning home from their assignments. The Ebola
virus continues to spread rapidly in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea,
with 44 new cases and 21 deaths in the last three days, bringing the
total to 888 cases and 539 deaths since February. Health workers are
being disproportionately affected, because they're the ones who care
for the sick patients, and yet they are not provided with even the
most basic supplies, such as hand gloves. Without gloves, a person
touching an Ebola patient is likely to contract Ebola himself. There
are accusations that the little money being allocated to fight Ebola
is being pocketed by executives and bureaucrats, with little left for
supplies and logistics for the front line health workers. This is
already the worse Ebola epidemic in history, and if the exodus of
health workers continues, the epidemic could become catastrophic for
the region. Even so, there's no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since
Ebola is only spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an
infected person, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the
air. All Africa and Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Qassam Brigades,
Ebola, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea

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*** 13-Jul-14 World View -- Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israeli special forces appear to be fighting in Gaza
• Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?
• Biblical prophecy and the future of Israel
• History and population and the future of Israel

****
**** Israeli special forces appear to be fighting in Gaza
****


The Al-Quds Brigades and Islamic Jihad claim that they have been fighting Israeli special forces in Gaza (AFP)

The Islamic Jihad and the Al-Quds Brigades in Gaza are claiming they
clashed on Sunday morning with Israeli special forces that entered
Gaza. The Israeli army has confirmed these reports. Israeli prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel is considering a
ground invasion of Gaza, but that no decision has yet been reached.

However, other reports indicate that Netanyahu is considering
proposing an exit strategy for the war. First, Israel will eradicate
a major portion of Hamas's military resources in Gaza, but leave it in
power.

Second, Israel will back down from a ground invasion of Gaza in return
for international agreement that Israeli forces will be assigned the
responsibility for the security of the Jordan Valley and the West
Bank, to protect them from an invasion of the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS) from Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. Al Aribiya and Jerusalem Post and Debka

****
**** Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?
****

I received a number of comments questioning my statements in "9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants."
four days ago.
I wrote that many Arabs want a war with Israel because they
believe that they could win it, simply based on population.
Israel has 7.8 million people, while there are 123.2 million Arabs
in adjoining countries, and population is destiny.

There were two categories of objections: Biblical prophecy, and
history. I'll address both of them below.

But in reading the Mideast press, I get the strong impression that the
Israeli people are way overconfident, and are certain they can't lose.
This is in contrast to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who
gives me the feeling that he's in a state of panic. From the
Palestinian leaders, I get the impression of gritty determination that
this time they're going to win.

However, in writing this article, I'm not taking an ideological stand.
I'm following the Generational Dynamics methodology. And in that
methodology a war is an act of nature, like an earthquake or a
hurricane. It's neither good nor bad. Like an earthquake, it
accomplishes nothing but destruction. As I first wrote my analysis of President Bush's Mideast Roadmap to Peace, in May, 2003, a war between Arabs and Jews is coming
with absolute certainty, just as earthquakes and hurricanes come with
absolutely certainty.

So this article continues the previous analysis by addressing the
question of whether Israel is going to win the next major war between
Jews and Arabs. The analysis indicates that Israel is probably going
to lose. But wars end, in the aftermath, there may yet be a new
Israel.

****
**** Biblical prophecy and the future of Israel
****

People who believe in Biblical prophecy often look to the Bible to try
to discern what will happen to Israel. One person wrote the following
to me:

<QUOTE>"The one thing wrong with Generational Dynamics theory
is it does not account for religion. I am 100% backer of
Generational Dynamics except when it comes to Israel who is
Yahweh's chosen people, even though they don't act like it. He
would not let the region be trampled on by Esau's and Ishmael's
descendants. I don't want to enter in a debate of who believes in
what. I'm just saying that comparing Israel's 7.8 million versus
123.2 million Arabs and giving the victory to the Arabs is a bit
premature. Just sit back and watch what happens."<END QUOTE>

I would respond by saying that no one could know what Yahweh's plan
is. Perhaps his plan is to let Israel be trampled on by Esau's and
Ishmael's descendants, so that a new Israel can rise from the ashes.
That would be completely in the spirit of many historical Biblical
stories.

In fact, if you think about it, Israel was created by the United
Nations out of the ashes of World War II. It would certainly be
consistent with millennia of Jewish history if Israel were completely
destroyed by the coming war, and then rose again afterwards.

Here's a comment that a web site reader sent to me in February 2011,
as the Arab world was in tumult over the "Arab Awakening" in Egypt,
Libya, Tunisia, and other countries:

<QUOTE>"I feel you are off in a few points. The biggest
problem is you do not address the Bible's predictions in your
assessments of a world conflict. As the Bible sees it, we shall
have a limited war in the Middle East (Psalm 83/Isaiah 17/Jeremiah
49) that will involve Israel vs. Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and
Saudi Arabia. This war will end with Israel 'nuking' Damascus off
the map and the world CRYING for a peace plan. With the inner ring
of Arab nations conquered by Israel the Middle East problems will
be seen as over, a 'new' global leader will provide a seven year
treaty that makes more war impossible. Though when everyone says
'peace and safety', the end comes quickly. In 2-3 months I think,
Russia and Iran and the outer ring of Arab nations will attack
Israel in revenge (with Russia adding their might, but planning to
double-cross the Arabs once things are done). ... As Ezekiel
38-39 reads God will supernaturally save Israel, and leave but
1/6th of its attackers alive."<END QUOTE>

First, I try to tell people who believe in Bible prophecy to interpret
today's events to be very cautious, because populations have moved.
Just to take one example, the Turks came from central Asia, and didn't
move into Anatolia (today's Turkey) until about 1000 years ago. So
someone using Bible prophecy to interpret events today about Turkey
would have to explain away the fact that there's a whole new race of
people living in Turkey, different from the people who lived there at
the time of the prophecy.

However, I particularly want to focus on the prophecy about Damascus,
which several people have written to me about over the years, in
Isaiah 17:1-3:

<QUOTE>"1 The oracle concerning Damascus. "Behold, Damascus
is about to be removed from being a city And will become a fallen
ruin. 2 "The cities of Aroer are forsaken; They will be for flocks
to lie down in, And there will be no one to frighten them. 3 "The
fortified city will disappear from Ephraim, And sovereignty from
Damascus And the remnant of Aram; They will be like the glory of
the sons of Israel," Declares the LORD of hosts."<END QUOTE>

There are many people who interpret these verses as indicating that
someone is going to drop a nuclear weapon on Damascus. The attacker
would be Israel or Iran or Russia, according to different
interpretations.

What's fascinating about this prophecy is that it seems that almost
everyone in the Mideast seems to know about it. So if anybody
actually DOES drop a bomb on Damascus at some time in the future, it
will truly be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since the attacker will
certainly justify this action by saying it's a Bible prophecy. Thus, it
would be possible to argue that the CAUSE of the nuclear attack
on Damascus would have been the Bible prophecy.

So the net result of all this is that it's very difficult to justify
applying any Biblical prophecy to today's events, and every easy to
get into trouble because of it. Pulpit Biblical Commentary

****
**** History and population and the future of Israel
****

Several people sent me messages something like the following:

<QUOTE>"In fact Israel was already outnumbered like that in
1948 and 1967 and 1973. It always had a more efficient army with
American-made up-to-date weapons."<END QUOTE>

As I mentioned earlier, this statement is based on an invalid
assumption that just because Israel, with 7.8 million people, won wars
in the past against Arabs, with over 100 million people, that they'll
do it again. In fact, my reading is that the Israeli people (as
opposed to the politicians) are so overconfident, they may lose rather
quickly and decisively.

However, I'd like to focus on another aspect of the population issue,
that I've written about in the past. Here, from the CIA World Fact Book, are the number of births per 1000 population
in various Sunni Muslim countries:

• 
  Egypt 23.35
  Gaza Strip 32.20
  Jordan 25.23
  Kuwait 20.26
  Lebanon 14.80
  Libya 18.40
  Pakistan 23.19
  Syria 22.76
  West Bank 23.41
  Yemen 31.02
  

And here are the number of births per 1000 population for some other
countries:

• 
  China 12.17
  France 12.49
  Germany 8.42
  India 19.89
  Israel 18.44
  Japan 8.07
  Korea, South 8.26
  Russia 11.87
  United Kingdom 12.22
  United States 13.42
  

Since World War II, the birth rate in Sunni Muslim countries has been
roughly twice as high as in other countries.

I've been aware of this since the 1990s, since it was mentioned in
Samuel P. Huntington's book "The Clash of Civilizations." I've asked
many Muslims why this has been happening, and I've never gotten an
explanation. So I can only make an educated guess.

Around 1300, a Muslim Turkish tribe led by its chieftain, Osman,
started making conquests, eventually becoming the Ottoman Empire. It
had a series of almost unbroken conquests, including the destruction
of the Byzantine Empire in 1453. It continued with one success after
another until 1683, when the Habsburgs (Germans) defeated the
Ottomans, almost destroying their entire army, in the War with the
Holy League (1683-99). This was a calamitous defeat, and signaled a
reversal of the Ottoman Empire's fortunes. There were further
defeats, culminating in the complete destruction of the Ottoman
Empire, and the declaration of the secular Turkish Republic in 1922.
This was also the end of the worldwide Islamic Caliphate in Istanbul.

So after roughly 300 years of almost unbroken victories, the Muslim
world suffered roughly 300 years of almost unbroken defeats. This led
to several decades of chaos, and eventually to "the Nakba" or "the
catastrophe" -- the partitioning of Palestine in 1948, and the
creation of Israel.

My speculation is that a sense grew across the Muslim world that these
repeated Muslim defeats could be turned to victories in only one way:
by outbreeding the Jews and Christians. I don't know if anyone issued
a fatwa or if some Muslim politician made an appeal. But in the six
decades since World War II, when Western politicians were encouraging
couples to have no more than two children, to prevent a population
explosion, the Muslim world was encouraging couples to have as many
children as possible, in order to defeat the West.

That's my speculation for why the birth rate in the Sunni Muslim
countries has been twice the birth rate in Western countries. If some
Islamic scholar or historian has a better explanation, I would like to
hear it, and I would welcome receiving a communication on the subject.

Returning now to the original topic, since the time of the Nakba,
there has been a gritty determination in the Arab world to defeat
Israel, and they may very well succeed. But the destruction of the
Ottoman Empire didn't mean the end of the Muslims, and the destruction
of Israel will not mean the end of the Jews. It's well to remember
that the Jews have survived for millennia, despite many attempts to
exterminate them, and there's little doubt that the Jews will survive
again, whether Israel does or not.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Al-Quds Brigades,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Esau, Ishmael, Isaiah 17, Damascus, Turkey, Anatolia,
Ottoman Empire, Byzantine Empire, War with the Holy League,
Nakba, Palestine

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*** 14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria's Boko Haram takes credit for Lagos explosion
• Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria
• Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

****
**** Nigeria's Boko Haram takes credit for Lagos explosion
****

In a 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau is claiming
responsibility for a bombing in Nigeria's main southern port city of
Lagos on June 25, a bombing that the government apparently tried to
cover up by saying that it was an accident. There was a huge
explosion on June 25 in a shopping mall in Nigeria's capital city
Abuja, killing 24 people, as we reported at the time,
, and Boko Haram was assumed responsible for
it. However, the second explosion on the same day, in Lagos, was
called an accident by the government, apparently to avoid panicking
the population. Investigations by the press had already determined
that it was a terrorist attack, not an accident, and now Boko Haram is
claiming responsibility.

A terrorist attack on Lagos could be a significant blow to Nigeria's
economy because Lagos is an international business hub. The target of
the Lagos attack was a fuel depot. Fortunately, the female suicide
bomber never reached the depot because, if she had, it would have
caused a massive chain explosion. Since the suicide bomber was
apparently poorly trained, it's thought that the bombing was
perpetrated by Boko Haram itself.

Boko Haram has been thought of as a terrorist group operating in
northeast Nigeria, where it has abducted hundreds of schoolgirls, who
have still not been freed after several months. If group can now
conduct terror attacks all the way to the Lagos in the south, it would
mean a significant increase in Boko Haram's reach.

There's also evidence that Boko Haram is responsible for numerous
attacks on farmers. Almost every developing country has major battles
at some point between farmers and cattle or camel herders. The
herders' animals trample the farmers' crops, infuriating the farmers.
The farmers then put up fences which block the herders, infuriating
the herders. This is a theme in several African countries, including
Kenya and Sudan. In Nigeria, there have been a marked increase in
deadly attacks on farmers, and they've been blamed on cattle herders
from the Fulani tribe. But some officials suspect that the attacks
might be linked to Boko Haram, who are from the Kanuri ethnic group,
but may have been infiltrated by Fulani. Nigeria Guardian News and Reuters

****
**** Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria
****

In the 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau mocks the
#BringBackOurGirls hashtag twitter campaign, featuring Michele Obama
carrying a sign with the hash tag. The campaign has been completely
ineffective.

There have been numerous questions about why the U.S. isn't doing more
to help Nigeria recover the girls. The question was answered on
Thursday by Lauren Blanchard, a specialist on African affairs,
speaking to a Congressional committee. According to Blanchard:

<QUOTE>"[The main impediment is] gross violations committed
by the Nigerian forces, the Nigerian government’s resistance to
adopting a more comprehensive approach to Boko Haram, and the
continued lack of political will."<END QUOTE>

In particular, the Nigerian government has simply stalled in approving
Nigerian units for training and assistance:

<QUOTE>"Multiple systemic factors further constrain the
effectiveness of the Nigerian security force’s response to Boko
Haram, notably security sector corruption and mismanagement, and
some of these factors impede US support even for units that have
been cleared for assistance."<END QUOTE>

It's suspected that because of tribal loyalties, some factions in
Nigeria's army and policy are sympathizing with Boko Haram, and
perhaps working for the terrorist group. Osun Defender (Nigeria)

****
**** Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links
****

Militants in Egypt's northern Sinai, near the border with Israel,
fired mortar rounds late Sunday at a military post, killing a soldier
and seven civilians. Militants in Sinai have also fired rockets at
Israel in support of Palestinians during the war in Gaza.

Militants have found a haven in northern Sinai, particularly after the
turmoil in Egypt since 2011. Egyptian officials are concerned that
the rise of Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) will
increase terrorist activities in Sinai. The fear is that al-Qaeda
linked organizations and Salafist jihadists will merge with ISIS or
"declare allegiance" to it. It's not expected that many jihadists in
Sinai to convert to ISIS, and it's believed that there are no
Egyptians in the ISIS command hierarchy. In fact, some Muslim
Brotherhood leaders have refused to recognize ISIS. But ISIS might
attack supporters among extremist militias in Libya, or from Al-Qaeda
in the Maghreb (AQIM), and those supporters might come to Sinai.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Ahram

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Lagos, Boko Haram, Abuja,
Abubakar Shekau, Fulani, Kanuri, Lauren Blanchard,
Egypt, Sinai, Israel, Gaza, Libya, AQIM,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

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