*** 15-Jul-14 World View -- Ukraine accuses Russia of shooting down military transport plane

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine accuses Russia of shooting down military transport plane
• Rise of ISIS spawns new jihadist groups in Indonesia
• Egypt proposes a cease-fire in the Israel-Gaza war
• Palestinian lawyer says that proving Israeli war crimes would be difficult

****
**** Ukraine accuses Russia of shooting down military transport plane
****


Fragments of downed Ukrainian An-26 transport aircraft

A Ukrainian AN-26 military transport flying near the border with
Russia was shot down on Monday. Ukraine is accusing Russia of
shooting down the plane from Russian territory which, if true, could
be an important game-changer in the geopolitical battle that currently
involves Russia, Ukraine, the European Union and the United States.

According to Ukraine's government:

<QUOTE>"Factoring in that the plane was flying at the
altitude 6,500m, it was impossible to hit it with man-portable
anti-aircraft system, which means the plan was attacked by some
other, more powerful rocket weapon, which was used, probably, from
the territory of the Russian Federation. ...

At the moment, judging from the data provided by Ukrainian airmen,
two theories are being considered: the shot was fired from the
up-to-date surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery
weapon system Pantsir or a self-guided air-to-air missile X-24
from a Russian plane, which could have been scrambled from the
airfield Millerovo [Russia]."<END QUOTE>

Ukrainian officials are examining the wreckage. If it's proved that
Russian forces shot down the plane, then Ukraine may be forced to make
its own military response, targeting Russian assets. Furthermore, EU
and American officials may now feel obligated to impose much harsher
sanctions on Russia, or be accused of letting Russia cross another
"red line," with no response.

Russia has made no comment. Separately, Nato reported a Russian troop
build-up near the Ukraine border, increasing their number to 12,000
troops. Ukraine News Agency and AP and BBC

****
**** Rise of ISIS spawns new jihadist groups in Indonesia
****

As we've been reporting for a year and a half, the result of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad's genocidal activities directed towards
innocent Sunni women and children in Syria has made Syria a jihadist
magnet for militants around the world to receive terrorist training.
And in the last few months, it's resulted in the formation of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), which has taken
control of a large region in eastern Syria and western Iraq.

Authorities in Indonesia are concerned about the rise of ISIS for two
separate reasons. One is the concern that many countries have -- that
dozens of Indonesian would-be jihadists have gone to Syria for
training, and may come home with new skills and capabilities and
renewed ideological commitment to conduct armed jihad.

However, the success of ISIS in gaining territory has made ISIS a
model for terrorist groups within Indonesia itself. Jihadist groups
within Indonesia are swearing allegiance to ISIS, and are promoting
ISIS locally through community-based events such as charity work. The
number of ISIS cheerleaders online is also rising. New pro-ISIS
websites, Facebook groups and Twitter accounts continue to emerge with
thousands of followers. So the rise of ISIS could determine new
directions for the militant Islamist movement in Indonesia, and
increased violence. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)

****
**** Egypt proposes a cease-fire in the Israel-Gaza war
****

Egypt is proposing to mediate a cease-fire starting early on Tuesday
in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, followed by a series of
meetings and negotiations. It's not believed that Israel would agree
to a cease-fire without a permanent cessation of rocket launchings
from Gaza into Israel.

It's believed that pressure from Islamic Jihad would prevent Hamas
from agreeing to any cease-fire. A cease-fire would be humiliating
because Gaza has launched hundreds of rockets, but not a single
Israeli has been killed. Many have landed on unpopulated farmland,
and many others have been shot down by Israel's Iron Dome missile
defense system, so that Gaza has absolutely nothing to show for all
the rockets they've sent. BBC

****
**** Palestinian lawyer says that proving Israeli war crimes would be difficult
****

The Palestinian representative to the U.N. Human Rights Council
(UNHCR) was interviewed on TV on the subject of going to
the International Criminal Court (ICC) and charging Israel
with war crimes and crimes against humanity. According
to Ibrahim Khreisheh:

<QUOTE>"The missiles that are now being launched against
Israel – each and every missile constitutes a crime against
humanity whether it hits or misses, because it is directed at a
civilian targets. What Israel does against Palestinian civilians
also constitutes crimes against humanity. With regard to crimes of
war under the Fourth Geneva Convention – the settlements, the
Judaization, the checkpoints, the arrests, and so on – we find
ourselves on very solid ground. However, there is a Palestinian
weakness with regard to the other issue. Therefore targeting
civilians – be it one civilian or a thousand – is considered a
crime against humanity. ...

Please note that many of our people in Gaza appeared on TV and
said that the Israeli army warned them to evacuate their homes
before the bombardment. In such a case, if someone is killed, the
law considers it a mistake rather than an intentional killing,
because [the Israelis] followed the legal procedures. As for the
missiles launched from our side: We never warn anyone about where
these missiles are about to fall, or about the operations we carry
out. Therefore, people should know more before they talk
emotionally about appealing to the ICC."<END QUOTE>

Memri



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, AN-26,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Indonesia, Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Iron Dome,
UN Human Rights Council, UNHCR, International Criminal Court, ICC

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*** 16-Jul-14 World View -- Hamas furious at Egypt's cease-fire proposal, as violence escalates

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel signals escalated military attack on Gaza on Wednesday morning
• Hamas furious at Egypt's cease-fire proposal, as violence escalates
• Turkey's prime minister Erdogan makes vitriolic attack on Israel

****
**** Israel signals escalated military attack on Gaza on Wednesday morning
****


Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli air strike on Gaza (BBC)

On Tuesday, Israel ordered thousands of Palestinians in eastern and
northern Gaza to leave their homes before 8 am on Wednesday. Israel
is using recorded telephone messages and leaflets to notify Gaza
residents. It's not known whether the new action will be an escalated
missile attack, or whether Israeli troops will be involved. BBC

****
**** Hamas furious at Egypt's cease-fire proposal, as violence escalates
****

Hamas rejected, and Israel accepted, the cease-fire proposal offered
by Egypt on Monday evening. The proposal called for a cease-fire
between Hamas and Israel to begin early Tuesday morning. Israel held
off bombing Gaza for six hours, to give Hamas a chance to consider the
proposal, and during that time, dozens of rockets were launched from
Gaza into Israel. When it became clear that Hamas would not accept
the proposal, Israel resumed bombing military targets in Gaza.

According to Hamas in a statement:

<QUOTE>"To avoid confusion and to be clear with our people,
al-Qassam Brigades confirm that we haven't been contacted by any
official or unofficial entities about terms of this alleged
initiative.

If what has been circulated is true, this initiative means
kneeling and submissiveness and so we completely refuse it and to
us, it's not worth the ink used in writing it."<END QUOTE>

This is not surprising. As we wrote yesterday, Hamas has been
humiliated by the fact that they've launched hundreds of rockets into
Israeli territory and accomplished almost nothing, mainly thanks to
Israel's sophisticated Iron Dome anti-missile system. For the Hamas
leadership to agree to a cease-fire now would probably cause violence
between the militant factions within Gaza itself, as the more extreme
factions turn against Hamas leadership for allowing itself to be
further humiliated.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement:

<QUOTE>"We accepted the Egyptian proposal in order to present
an opportunity for Gaza to be disarmed of its missiles, rockets,
and tunnels through political means, but if Hamas does not accept
this proposed cease-fire – and this is how it appears at present —
Israel will have full international legitimacy for an expanded
military operation to return the necessary quiet."<END QUOTE>

Hamas is infuriated by this situation because it appears that the
entire cease-fire proposal was a setup to further humiliate Hamas,
while giving Israel legitimacy to escalating its missile attacks on
the military targets in Gaza.

According Michael Oren, Israel's former ambassador to
Washington:

<QUOTE>If Hamas rejects the very public diplomatic offer
here, then if the fighting renews, Israel can then pursue its
military goals with a tremendous amount of international
legitimacy behind it – something that was lacking prior to the
outbreak of the hostilities."<END QUOTE>

However, along with this legitimacy comes a great deal more
tension between the two sides, with substantially more
fury on the Hamas side and substantially more nationalism
on the Israeli side.

Appearing on the BBC on Tuesday, Richard Haass, president of the
Council on Foreign Relations, said that the probability of an Israeli
ground invasion into Gaza has increased substantially in the last 24
hours, and that the current conflict is "dangerously different" from
the conflicts that occurred in 2012 and 2008:

<QUOTE>"It is. What's worrying me now is not simply that you
have Hamas against the Israelis, but there's a tribal element,
because of the three Israelis who were killed, then the one
Palestinian in the revenge killing. So you now have this taking
place at multiple levels and it's not just organized violence,
it's unorganized violence, and the two are potentially truly
dangerous."<END QUOTE>

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Arabs and the Jews are headed
for a war characterized by exactly this kind of unorganized "tribal"
violence. It may happen this time, or in two years, or in five years,
but it's coming, and the outcome will almost certainly not be favorable to Israel.
International Middle East Media Center (Gaza) and Jewish Telegraphic Agency and CS Monitor

****
**** Turkey's prime minister Erdogan makes vitriolic attack on Israel
****

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday accused Israel of
"terrorizing the region" with its bombardment of Gaza:

<QUOTE>"With utter disregard for international law, Israel
continues to terrorize the region, and no country but us is
telling it to stop. It has sprayed bullets and caused deaths, as
it does every Ramadan.

No tyranny is everlasting; sooner or later every tyrant has to pay
the price... This tyranny will not remain unaccounted
for."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan also criticized an Israeli member of parliament, Ayelet Shaked
of the ultra-nationalist Jewish Home party, for saying that "mothers
of the martyrs" should also be killed. "What is the difference
between this mentality and Hitler's?" asked Erdogan. Zaman (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Michael Oren, Richard Haass, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Ayelet Shaked, Jewish Home party

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*** 17-Jul-14 World View -- Sectarian violence continues to grow in Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gaza conflicts open old wounds in the Arab world
• Iran offers full support to Hamas
• Sectarian violence continues to grow in Central African Republic

****
**** Gaza conflicts open old wounds in the Arab world
****

Egyptian columnists were furious a few days ago when Khaled Mashal,
the leader of Hamas, criticized the Egyptian army for failing to come
to the aid of the Palestinians in Gaza. Many pointed out that Mashal
was living in luxury in a high class hotel in Doha, Qatar, instead of
fighting in Gaza. According to one column, translated by Memri:

<QUOTE>"Where is your spirit of heroism, Abu Walid [i.e.,
Khaled Mash'al]? Join your brothers. Leave Doha's hotels, which
you have enjoyed, and go down into the trenches and fight the
Zionist enemy that murders the fruits of our loins. Mash'al, we
are tired of defending the [Palestinian] cause that you have sold
for cheap to an MB gang whose way you followed even though they
have lost their [own] way. We want neither a reward nor gratitude
from you. Brother Mash'al, Egypt is in a state of war. We have
enough problems [of our own]. We are sufficiently [busy with] the
plots of your brethren, the members of your movement. You have
bankrupted us. We are starving for bread while you eat delicacies
on the tables of Doha's lowlifes... Egypt understands this message
well and intends to extinguish the war you sparked,
Mash'al... Remember the stature of the commander of the Egyptian
army, who loses sleep to defend our children in Gaza and who
opened the [Rafah] crossing to save them, while you languish in
your bed in Doha!"<END QUOTE>

Besides the personal mocking of Mashal, the point of this and many
Egyptian columnists is that Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood, which is supported by Qatar, but which is considered a
terrorist organization by Egypt's government. Numerous terrorist acts
in northern Sinai, near the border of Gaza and Israel, are being
blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood and on Hamas itself. For this
reason, the tunnels underneath the wall separating Egypt from Gaza
have been shut for years by Egypt's army. Even during the presidency
of MB leader Mohamed Morsi, before he was ousted in an army coup, the
tunnels and crossings were rarely opened, because it was too dangerous
for Egypt.

When Egypt made its proposal to mediate the war between Gaza and
Israel, almost everyone (myself included) were certain that Hamas
would reject the proposal, not just because it came from Egypt, but
also because they've been totally humiliated in the war because they
launched thousands of missiles into Israel, and have almost nothing to
show for it.

As we reported in March, the Gulf Arab states have had a major split
over issues ranging from the
Muslim Brotherhood to Iran. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) and Bahrain went so far as to recall their ambassadors from
Qatar.

Those differences have been exacerbated by the current Gaza crisis.
On Wednesday, leaders of Tunisia, Turkey and Qatar, joining with
France, denounced the Egyptian regime as "unfit" for the role of
mediator, and said that they're going to lead the mediation efforts
between Israel and Gaza.

As it turned out, Israel has agreed to a five-hour cease-fire on
Thursday on humanitarian grounds, but many reports indicate that the
cease-fire may be a prelude to a full scale ground invasion. Memri and
Middle East Monitor

****
**** Iran offers full support to Hamas
****

Iran is promising to support Hamas with "all might," saying
that they will make all efforts to serve the "Palestinian
nation." A parliamentary delegation is poised to leave for
Gaza. According to one MP:

<QUOTE>"A Majlis [parliamentary] delegation will be
dispatched to Gaza Strip to express sympathy with the families of
Gaza martyrs and deliver donations from the Iranian people to the
residents of this region."<END QUOTE>

Iranian Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani called on Muslim countries to
stand united against Israel. Press Tv (Tehran) and Press Tv

****
**** Sectarian violence continues to grow in Central African Republic
****

For the last few months, sectarian violence in the Central African
Republic (CAR) has been centered in the capital city, Bangui, in the
southwestern region of the country. However, new reports indicate
that the violence has been moving east, and has now reached the region
surrounding the central city of Bambari, and farther east.

After a coup last year by Muslim leader Michel Djotodia, Muslim Seleka
militias began killing tens of thousands of Christians, and drove
hundreds of thousands from their homes. This year, Christian
anti-balaka militias have retaliated with vengeance, massacring
hundreds of thousands of Muslims, and have driven millions more from
their homes. ( "29-Mar-14 World View -- Christians versus Muslims in Central African Republic"
)

As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.

The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French
colonialists, but it also had it share of the same kind of tribal
violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends,
the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were
perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives
to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or
grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have
passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the
last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from
starting, and that's what's happening now.

New reports by Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)
indicate that the sectarian violence that's occurred in the last few
months is more extensive than previously believed. And reports by
Human Rights Watch are documenting the spread and escalation of
tit-for-tat sectarian violence into eastern parts of the CAR. Most of
the victims were men who were chopped to death by machetes. According
to an HRW director:

<QUOTE>"Sectarian violence is moving eastward, engulfing new
communities. The limited numbers of French and African Union
peacekeepers deployed in Bambari are unable to adequately protect
civilians and end the killings – although without their presence,
the bloodshed would likely have been worse."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is headed for a
genocidal generational crisis war, which will be just as bloody as the
generational crisis war that occurred in Rwanda in 1994. It's
becoming increasingly evident that this war will go beyond a civil war
between Muslims and Christians in CAR, and will end up involving the
French peacekeeping forces as active participants in the war, as well
as other tribes and ethnic groups. Doctors Without Borders and Human Rights Watch


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Gaza, Israel, Khaled Mashal, Abu Walid,
Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Bahrain, Tunisia, Turkey, Iran,
Central African Republic, Michel Djotodia, Seleka, anti-Balaka,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Bangui, Bambari,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF,
Human Rights Watch

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*** 18-Jul-14 World View -- Will Russia get away with it again?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Multiple simultaneous crises signal deteriorating geopolitics
• Will Russia get away with it again?

****
**** Multiple simultaneous crises signal deteriorating geopolitics
****


It's thought that flight MH17 was brought down by a Russian-made Buk missile system

On Thursday, the deterioration of the world's geopolitics took a giant
step forward with two major new crises:

• A large passenger plane was shot down in east Ukraine, by a
  missile that's widely believed to have been launched by pro-Russia
  separatists, and obtained from Russia's armed forces.
  
• Israel began a ground invasion of Gaza that's expected to last for
  weeks.

Also on Wednesday, there were a couple of "minor" crises of the kind
that occur all the time. For the past five days, armed groups have
been attacking Libya's main airport in Tripoli. Terrorists attacked
the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, terrorists struck
in Lahore in the east, and other terrorists struck in Hangu, in the
northwest.

The world has become a much darker place in the 11 years since I
started writing Generational Dynamics.

****
**** Will Russia get away with it again?
****

Flight MH17 was carrying 280 passengers and 15 crew members, when it
crashed in east Ukraine near the border with Russia, killing everyone
on board.

According to reports, Igor Strelkov, the commander of the pro-Russian
separatist militias east Ukraine tweeting the following immediate
after the MH17 was shot down:

<QUOTE>"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city
Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our
sky."<END QUOTE>

Strelkov's militias had shot down at least two Ukrainian AN-26s in the
last week, and was bragging that he'd shot down a third. The tweet
was taken down a few minutes later, when he learned that he'd shot
down a passenger plane.

But reports indicate that pro-Russian separatists are preventing any
independent international investigation of the crash site to take
place, and that they've confiscated the plane's "black boxes," and are
sending them to Russia. It's believed that whatever investigation
occurs will be conducted entirely by the Russians, who will simply
cover up their activities. American, Europe and the United Nations
did nothing beyond toothless sanctions when Russia annexed Ukraine's
Crimea peninsula, and they will do nothing in this case either.

It's a cruel irony that the flight MH17 that was shot down on
Wednesday was a Malaysian Airways plane, just like the MH370 flight
that disappeared on March 5, and still hasn't been found. Malaysian
officials were excoriated, particularly by the Chinese, because there
were so many Chinese victims, and the Malaysians didn't seem to know
what was going on.

MH17 was on a flight from Amsterdam to Malaysia, and there were
passengers from many countries throughout Asia, as well as from Europe
and America. Countries like Japan, China and India have taken a
neutral view of the entire Ukraine conflict. Now that many of these
countries will have citizens who lost their lives because pro-Russian
separatists shot down an airline with weapons supplied by Russia, will
these countries continue to remain neutral to the Ukraine conflict?
We'll have to wait and see. International Business Times and VOA and Newsweek


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Buk missile System, Russia, Gaza,
Igor Strelkov, AN-26, MH17, MH370, Malaysia

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I'm not so sure that Russia has gone past the 4T. Sneak attacks and Trojan-Horse subversion suggest a Crisis mode.

Countries that had no concern with the Russo-Ukrainian dispute want it over -- now. Not many recognize the Russian side of the dispute.

*** 19-Jul-14 World View -- Russia blows off US accusation of complicity in shooting down airliner

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel warns of 'significantly widening' the ground operation in Gaza
• Russia blows off US accusation of complicity in shooting down airliner

****
**** Israel warns of 'significantly widening' the ground operation in Gaza
****


The aftermath of a missile strike in Gaza on Friday (AP)

On Friday, thousands of Israeli troops accompanied tanks rolling into
Gaza. The military said that it hit at least 150 targets, including
rocket launchers and tunnels used for raids, and for moving and
storing weapons. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that
operation could expand:

<QUOTE>"Since it is impossible to deal with the tunnels only
by aerial means, our troops are also dealing with it on the
ground. Here as well, there are no guarantees for total success,
but we will do the utmost to achieve the best result. My
instructions to the IDF are to prepare for the possibility of
significantly widening the ground operation, and the chief of
staff and the military are prepared accordingly."<END QUOTE>

Israel has called up more than 53,000 reservists over the past
week.

Israeli actions are the targets of protests in many countries,
including Bangladesh, Jordan, South Africa, Venezuela, and Turkey,
because of the Palestinian casualties. International officials are
demanding a cease-fire and a peace agreement. Jerusalem Post and PBS and ABC News

****
**** Russia blows off US accusation of complicity in shooting down airliner
****

On Friday, the United States all but accused Russia of pushing the
button that launched the missile that shot down flight MH17.
President Obama made this statement:

<QUOTE>"Evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by a
surface-to-air missile that was launched from an area that is
controlled by Russian-backed separatists inside of Ukraine. We
also know that this is not the first time a plane has been shot
down in eastern Ukraine. Over the last several weeks,
Russian-backed separatists have shot down a Ukrainian transport
plane and a Ukrainian helicopter, and they claimed responsibility
for shooting down a Ukrainian fighter jet. Moreover, we know that
these separatists have received a steady flow of support from
Russia. This includes arms and training. It includes heavy
weapons, and it includes anti-aircraft weapons."<END QUOTE>

At a meeting on the United Nations Security Council, US ambassador
Samantha Power more explicitly accused Russia of complicity:

<QUOTE>"We assess Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 carrying
these 298 people from Amsterdam to Kuala-Lumpur was likely downed
by a surface-to-air missile, a SA-11 operated from a
separatist-held location in eastern Ukraine. ...

Only SA-11, SA-20 and SA-22 are capable of hitting an aircraft at
this flight’s altitude of 33,000 ft.

Separatists were spotted hours before the incident with the SA-11
system at the location close to the sight where the plane came
down. Because of the technical complexity of the SA-11 it is
unlikely they could effectively operate the system without
assistance from knowledgeable personnel. Thus we can’t rule out
technical assistance from Russian personnel in operating the
systems."<END QUOTE>

Interestingly, Russia's UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin didn't attempt to
refute these charges, except for the perfunctory claim, "We didn't do
it."

Instead, Churkin blamed Ukraine's government for allowing passenger
airlines in that airspace. Russia's president Vladimir Putin made a
similar statement. This is like a bank robber blaming the robbery on
the institution that built the bank.

Furthermore, Russian separatists in Ukraine are preventing
researchers from investigating the crash. The wreckage has
already been substantially contaminated.

So the visceral message conveyed by Russia's attitude is: "We don't
really give a s--t that you think we shot down an airliner. We
annexed Crimea and got away with it, and now we'll get away with this,
and you're not going to do a single thing about it."

However, there may still be blowback on Russia. Hundreds of
passengers were killed from numerous countries, including dozens of
passengers from Holland and Germany, and some countries may, at the
least, demand compensation at the International Court of Justice.

There may also be blowback in another form. This atrocity may force
the Ukraine government to escalate its military action against the
pro-Russia separatists in east Ukraine. At the same time, reports
indicate that Russia troops are massing on the Ukraine border,
suggesting that there may be a larger battle to come. White House and Russia Today
and The Conversation


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Russia, Ukraine, Samantha Power, Vitaly Churkin, Vladimir Putin

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

There may also be blowback in another form. This atrocity may force
the Ukraine government to escalate its military action against the
pro-Russia separatists in east Ukraine. At the same time, reports
indicate that Russia troops are massing on the Ukraine border,
suggesting that there may be a larger battle to come. White House and Russia Today
and The Conversation


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Russia, Ukraine, Samantha Power, Vitaly Churkin, Vladimir Putin

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Or, it could be that Russia actually planned for this atrocity precisely to incite Ukraine to take stronger action. Then, they can claim they have no choice but to invade Ukraine "to protect ethnic Russians" from the final beat down. Of course, Putin may be underestimating how rapidly this might result in something akin to the previous Great Wars. For example, Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania are now a de facto mini alliance. So even if NATO were to dawdle, a substantial "blunt instrument" may await a Russian invasion. Of course, none of the three openly possess WMD to counter the Russians' implied ultimate WMD threat. So back to NATO's potential response ... or, given at least Poland being a screw driver turn away from having the bomb ...

*** 20-Jul-14 World View -- Netherlands leads international outrage against Russia for airliner shootdown

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France reorganizes its troops in Africa
• Netherlands leads international outrage against Russia for airliner shootdown
• Why do Arabs have so many children?

****
**** France reorganizes its troops in Africa
****


Sahel region of western Africa (Economist)

France has about 3,000 troops in Africa, as peacekeepers in two
trouble spots -- Mali and Central African Republic. France was a
major colonial power in Africa, and so demands for further French help
in controlling terrorism in Africa is growing, especially with the
rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM). French presidents have tried in recent decades to reduce
France's African involvement, known as Françafrique, but to no avail.
France's current president, François Hollande, also tried to
end Françafrique, but the rise of an insurgency in Mali and
a potential genocide in Central African Republic have forced
France to increase their forces, not reduce them.

Hollande is consolidating France's military effort into Operation
Barkhane, headquartered in Chad's capital city, N'Djamena. From these
headquarters, France will deploy troops, fighter jets, transport
planes, drones, armored vehicles, and other military hardware in the
anti-terror fight being fought across western Africa. France 24 and Economist

****
**** Netherlands leads international outrage against Russia for airliner shootdown
****

An editorial in the Amsterdam paper The Telegraaf calls Alexander
Borodai, a leader of the east Ukraine pro-Russian separatist, and his
cronies "Murderers," and criticizes Holland's prime minister Mark
Rutte for not being aggressive enough in criticizing Russia's
president Vladimir Putin for complicity in shooting down flight MH17
on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"What has to happen before our government says 'we
won't take this'. The Netherlands should be banging its fists on
the table... the cabinet needs to make it clear to the world that
we are seething with anger. This is terror, a war crime, mass
murder!'

'The Netherlands is acting in this crisis as if it is a little
country and that lessens the impact of the prime minister's words
that he will not rest until the perpetrators are brought to
justice.'"<END QUOTE>

An editorial in another paper says that peace in Europe has been built
on the bones of millions of victims of nationalism, war and
racism. Vladimir Putin, the paper says, is responsible for the return
of echoes from the darkest period in European history.

At least 189 Dutch nationals are among the 298 people who were abord
flight MH17 when it was shot down by a missile from eastern Ukraine,
apparently pro-Russian separatists or by Russian military advisors.

These editorials come amidst stories that pro-Russian separatists in
Ukraine are disrespecting and "dragging around" the dead bodies of
Dutch victims of the plane crash, and dispersing their luggage and
belongings. Rutte is calling images of separatists holding up
children's toys "too disgusting for words."

Apparently the pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine are purposely
contaminating the crash scene and destroying evidence, and desperately
trying to hide complicity of Russia in shooting down the airliner.

An outraged Mark Rutte had a "very intense" and "very personal" phone
call with Putin on Saturday. 'I told him "time is running out for you
to show the world that you have good intentions, that you will take
responsibility",' according to Rutte:

<QUOTE>"It is absolutely necessary and the first priority
that the recovery of the victims take place as soon as
possible. Everyone who does not cooperate immediately and fully
casts a very serious suspicion on himself.

I am shocked by the images of totally disrespectful behavior on
this tragic place. Against all rules of a careful study, there
appear to be people who walk around with the personal belongings
of the victims, recognizable within the debris. This is downright
disgusting. ...

I have just had a very intense phone call with the Russian
president. I told him that time was running out, and he has one
last chance ... to show the world that he does what is expected of
him."<END QUOTE>

Dutch News and Netherlands government (Trans) and Netherland Times

****
**** Why do Arabs have so many children?
****

In my article last week, "13-Jul-14 World View -- Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?"
, I pointed out that the birth rate in Sunni
Muslim countries since World War II has been approximately double that
of other countries. I speculated that Sunni Muslims had a "gritty
determination" to beat the West by having more children, and I invited
a communication from anyone having a better explanation.

I received that following from a woman in United Arab Emirates (UAE):

<QUOTE>"I was reading your article on the Israeli-Arab war,
as you called it, and you noted the considerably high family sizes
and birth rate among Sunni Muslims in the Middle East as likely
related to a plan to “outbreed” the Christians and Jews or
whatnot.

As a Sunni Muslim myself, I can give you some firsthand insight.
Though this is not evidence in itself, for what it’s worth, I will
tell you that I have never heard that suggestion (that we are
trying to outbreed anyone) within my Muslim friend and family
circles. Rather the cause of these high fertility rates is
definitely rooted in Muslim culture itself.

Speaking largely for Arab families, we are heavily reliant on the
support of extended family. It is not uncommon in the UAE, for
example, to live in front of your in-laws, and I have seen my own
grandparents nestling in neighborhoods alongside their brothers
and sisters. It is a type of interdependence that is comfortable
for Arabs, so much so that to any new generation saying they will
not fulfill this duty to keep that big group of people to support
on going by having a family themselves becomes an instant threat
to the cultural fabric of that family.

I have grown up being told to have many kids so that they will be
able to spread the message of Islam, similarly to how many yearn
for sons to carry on the family name. It is natural for a people
to want more of their kind.

Islam and Arab culture have been very mixed up in recent years—
and may have been so for many years, in fact. The reality is that
Islam respects the People of the Book (Christians and Jews). In
theory we are to recognize their beliefs as key to our own. But in
practice you know how far it is from the truth.

Anyway, hope you will find this insightful."<END QUOTE>

I thank this woman for being kind enough to send me this message.

There are two conflicting aspects to this concept, that Arabs always
have large families as a cultural matter, to support one another and
to spread Islam. On the one hand, it means that a lot of soldiers are
available to win a war. On the other hand, it means that a lot more
soldiers will be killed in the next war, when they will be used as
cannon fodder. This is a subject that requires more research.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, François Hollande,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Mali,
Nigeria, Central African Republic,
Operation Barkhane, Chad, N'Djamena,
Netherlands, Mark Rutte, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine,
United Arab Emirates, UAE

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Of course, none of the three openly possess WMD to counter the Russians' implied ultimate WMD threat. So back to NATO's potential response ... or, given at least Poland being a screw driver turn away from having the bomb ...

Would that the Ukraine were allowed to keep its share of the nukes from the Soviet breakup (I posted about this in the Ukraine thread). What did you think of them being compelled to give them up at the time, and how do you see that now in the lens of what's going on today?

The US (and the UK, and Russia for that matter but forget them) does have an obligation by treaty to protect their sovereignty, in exchange for them giving the nukes up. I saw the possibility that a resurgent revanchist Russian power may rise and threaten the Ukraine in the future (and the Ukraine had that concern too IIRC), and felt it was foolish of them to give up their nukes, and that we should have not pressured them and let them keep them, rather than potentially go up against a nuclear power ourselves should we have to honor the treaty. I suspect things would be very different today had that view prevailed.

Of course, there was also concern about the Ukraine's faltering economy (and I think some aid there was also thrown into the deal), and it possibly being tempted to sell some nukes under the table for substantial help. Or else not be able to control them, shambles that the country was in at the time. We could probably have given them some substantial aid as well as let them keep the nukes though. That way we'd be under no obligation to go against the Bear ourselves should it get ornery again.

*** 21-Jul-14 World View -- Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers
• Growing Palestinian military capabilities raise questions of Israel's objectives
• ISIS evicts Christians and Kurds from Mosul Iraq as new bomb blasts hit Baghdad

****
**** Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers
****


A Palestinian tunnel in Gaza (Reuters)

Thirteen Israeli soldiers and dozens of Palestinian civilians were
killed on Sunday, as Israel substantially widened and intensified the
ground invasion of Gaza. The ground invasion has become a war over
the major Hamas strategic assets: The network of dozens or perhaps
hundreds of miles of underground tunnels criss-crossing Gaza,
containing weapons storage and launching pads and bunkers for command
and control. When the ground invasion began, three days ago, the
focus was on tunnels at the border between Gaza and Israel, used by
terrorists to invade Israel to kill or abduct Israeli citizens. But
now the attack has moved into the heart of Gaza where Hamas has placed
the most important strategic tunnels purposely in densely populated
areas, so that striking at the tunnels is impossible without killing
dozens or even hundreds of Palestinian civilians. Israel's prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying that this situation is necessary
because Hamas is using Gaza civilians as human shields, but others in
the international community are calling the attack an Israeli massacre
on innocent Palestinian civilians, including women and children.
Jerusalem Post and Debka

****
**** Growing Palestinian military capabilities raise questions of Israel's objectives
****

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that the Gaza military
operation will continue as long as required, but others in the
international community are calling for immediate cessation of
hostilities.

There's increasingly a question of what Israel's objectives are. It's
becoming apparent that it would take at least several weeks (or
months) of aggressive military action to destroy the tunnels, killing
tens or hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians, but even then,
it's likely that not all the tunnels would be destroyed. And even if
they were, the tunnels could be rebuilt within a few months.
So what's Israel's objective?

The logic of the situation leads many to think that the objective
is to inflict as much pain on Gaza as possible, in order to
discourage rocket attacks. Under this theory, Palestinians
are being "massacred" for no other purpose but to buy a couple
of years' time until the next war and the next "massacre."

In the meantime, militia factions in Gaza are increasing their
military capabilities. Since the last war in 2012, the capacities of
these militias have been enhanced through training exercises,
following military training programs and curricula, including the
development of special or commando forces.

Troop numbers have increased considerably. Hamas's military wing, the
Ezz Al-Din Qassam Brigades, can be regarded as a "standing army" of
some 7,000 soldiers, with 25,000 untrained fighters able to bear arms.
Other militia groups with similar numbers include:

• The Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Jihad
  Movement.
• The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades belonging to the Popular Front for
  the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
• The National Resistance Brigades, the military wing of the
  Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)
• The Mujahideen Brigades, which broke away from Fatah, and other
  smaller paramilitary groups.

At the same time, the power and sophistication of the militias'
weapons has been growing. In particular, the power and capabilities
of the rockets being launched into Israel has been growing.

Following the "Egyptian Revolution" that began with on January 25,
2011, overthrowing Egypt's long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, Hamas was
able to smuggle large amounts of weapons provided by Iran into Gaza.
According to one high-level Hamas official, this was the "golden era"
of weapons smuggling:

<QUOTE>"The brigades did not waste a single second. This was
a golden era for the resistance’s arms. These basically consist of
Russian weapons that come from Iran or elsewhere, or even from the
free market that exists on both sides of the borders. Although
the borders are now tightly controlled, arms are abundant. The
closure of the tunnels slowed the flow of arms but did not stop it
entirely. The promise of money makes smugglers very resourceful
in finding new means to smuggle merchandise.

We were certain that the situation in Egypt after the revolution
would not last and that the Muslim Brotherhood would not remain in
power for a single year let alone a single term. We were certain
of this and we knew that we had to take as full advantage of that
period as possible in order to secure arms and
ammunition."<END QUOTE>

What should be increasingly clear to everyone is that the hope for
some sort of "permanent peace" is absurd. As I wrote for the first time in 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts
that there would be no peace between Arabs and Jews, and that they
would be re-fighting the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that
followed the 1947 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. When I wrote that in 2003, there were two groups of
critics: the kind critics who called me "alarmist," and the unkind
critics who called me "psychopathic." However, I doubt that either of
those two groups of critics would doubt today that those predictions
were correct. That war is coming, and the outcome will almost
certainly not be favorable to Israel,
as I wrote last week. Times of Oman and Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** ISIS evicts Christians and Kurds from Mosul Iraq as new bomb blasts hit Baghdad
****

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) tightened its grip
on the northern Iraq city of Mosul in the last few days, first by
evicting hundreds of Christian families, and then by preparing to
evict Kurds as well. Christians have lived in Mosul for millennia,
but now ISIS has delivered an ultimatum to Christians: Leave the city,
pay a tax, or die. Those leaving the city are being stripped of all
their belongings, and are permitted to keep only the clothes on their
backs. Following the eviction of Christians, ISIS is giving Kurds
only a few days to leave the city.

Muslims in both Mosul and Baghdad are expressing sympathy for the
evicted Christians, and promising solidarity and aid. This comes as a
new spate of suicide bombings struck Baghdad on Saturday. ISIS has
claimed responsibility for the bombings, and claims that one of the
two suicide bombers is a German national. Bas News (Erbil) and AFP and Today's Zaman (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Hamas, Ezz Al-Din Qassam Brigades,
Quds Brigades, Islamic Jihad Movement,
Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, PFLP,
National Resistance Brigades, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, DFLP,
Mujahideen Brigades, Fatah, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Iran, Muslim Brotherhood,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Mosul, Baghdad

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*** 22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine's pro-Russian separatists grudgingly give up 'black boxes'
• Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances

****
**** Ukraine's pro-Russian separatists grudgingly give up 'black boxes'
****


Pro-Russian separatist taking 'black box' two days ago, before it was turned over to Malaysian officials

Late Monday, the pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine, under
enormous international pressure, grudgingly handed over to Malaysian
officials the "black boxes" from Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 that
was shot out of the sky on July 17. The separatists, currently being
led by self-declared prime minister Alexander Borodai, have been
preventing international access to the crash site in order to hide the
complicity of the separatists and Russia in shooting down the
airliner. Borodai himself is a Russian, a former deputy directory of
Russia's FSB (known as the KGB in Soviet days).

The so-called "black boxes" (which are actually orange) are likely to
contain the last few minutes of the voices of the pilots flying MH17,
as well as numerical data generated by the plane's computers. Most
experts consider it unlikely that the MH17 pilots even suspected what
was going to happen until the missile actually struck, and so the
black boxes are not likely to contain data that would indicate
culpability in the shoot down.

US Secretary of State John Kerry appeared on number Sunday news talk
shows, and on each one he enumerated what he called "an enormous array
of facts" providing evidence that Russia was implicated in shooting
down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 on Thursday. Here are some of the
items in his evidence list:

• "There are reports of drunken separatist soldiers
  unceremoniously piling bodies into trucks, removing both bodies, as
  well as evidence, from the site."
  
• "The separatists are in control. Some of the separatist leaders
  are Russian. Russia has armed the separatists. Russia has supported
  the separatists. Russia has trained the separatists."
  
• "Russia continues to refuse to call publicly for the separatists
  to engage in behavior that would lend itself to a resolution of this
  issue. The lack of access [to the crash site] makes its own statement
  about culpability and responsibility."
  
• "In the last month, we have observed major supplies moving
  in. Several weeks ago, about a 150-vehicle convoy, including armored
  personnel carriers, tanks, rocket launchers, artillery, all going in
  and being transferred to the separatists."
  
• "We know that they had an SA-11 [ground to air missile] system in
  the vicinity, literally hours before the shoot-down took place. There
  are social media records of that."
  
• "They were talking, and we have the intercepts of their
  conversations, talking about the transfer and movement and
  repositioning of the SA-11 system."
  
• "The social media showed them with this system moving through the
  very area where we believe the shoot-down took place, hours before it
  took place."
  
• "Social media, which is an extraordinary tool, obviously, in all
  of this, has posted recordings of separatists bragging about the
  shoot-down of a plane at the time right after it took place. The
  defense minister, so-called, self-appointed, of the People's Republic
  of Donetsk, Mr. Igor Strelkov, actually posted a bragging statement on
  the social media about having shot down a transport. And then, when it
  became apparent it was civilian, they quickly removed that particular
  posting."
  
• "But even more importantly, we picked up the imagery of this
  launch. We know the trajectory. We know where it came from. We know
  the timing. And it was exactly at the time that this aircraft
  disappeared from the radar. We also know, from voice identification,
  that the separatists were bragging about shooting it down
  afterwards."

Russian commentators, including Russia's president Vladimir Putin,
have been advancing one fantastical theory after another to deflect
blame from themselves. The most common theme is that the Ukrainian
government purposely shot down the airliner to given themselves an
excuse to attack the separatists. It's hard to think of any better
word than "desperate" to describe these theories. CNN and ABC News and NBC News

****
**** Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances
****

US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Cairo on Monday evening,
apparently to add one more to the long list of fruitless peace
mediations he's attempted. In this case, he's teaming up with
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, in a joint effort to negotiate a
peace process between Israel and Gaza. Both Kerry and Ban have made
statements in the last few days suggesting that they're critical of
the number of Palestinian casualties that have resulted from Israel's
ground invasion of Gaza, and so both Kerry and Ban are widely seen at
least slightly favoring Hamas over Israel.

In a sense, Kerry and Ban are playing out of their league because,
really, no one in the Mideast really cares at all what they think.
The Gaza war is inflaming a powerful geopolitical fault line in the
Mideast, and events are not under the control any politician or group
of politicians.

The Gaza war is exposing two major factions:

• A Qatar-led coalition that includes Turkey, Sudan and Iran.
  All of these countries are strong supporters of Hamas, and have
  supplied money and weapons. Qatar and Turkey have also been very
  vocal supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the parent
  organization of Hamas.
  
• Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Under the current government of president
  Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, which considers the Muslim Brotherhood to be
  a terrorist organization, Egypt offered last week a cease-fire
  proposal and negotiation framework that Hamas immediately rejected and
  Israel immediately accepted. Israel and Saudi Arabia both consider
  Iran to be a mortal enemy, and they've discussed an anti-Iran alliance
  in the past. Egypt is struggling with the same kinds of terrorist
  attacks as Israel, and it blames them on Hamas and the Muslim
  Brotherhood, so Egypt and Israel are also allied.

Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics are aware of the
predictions, over a decade ago, of an approaching war between Jews and
Arabs, re-fighting the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that
following the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. However, there's been a need to fill in additional
details, and one of the most important and most puzzling "details" was
how the different Arab states would align themselves in that coming
war between Jews and Arabs. These alignments are now beginning to
clearly emerge.

I now have to add a word about Iran. As I've been saying for years,
Iran will be an ally of the United States in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war. This prediction is firm, but is only
slightly related to what's happening in the Mideast. In the coming
world war, China will be allied with Pakistan, and America will be
allied with India -- which will be allied with Iran. The close ties
between Hindus and Shia Muslims date all the way back to the epochal
Battle of Karbala in 680, and the relationship continues to this day.

This suggests that the above alignment (Egypt + Saudi Arabia + Israel
versus Qatar + Turkey + Iran) may not be final. In Egypt, for
example, the Muslim Brotherhood won overwhelming popular political
victories in the 2012 elections and the consitutional referendum.
This popular loyalty could revive at any time, depending on
circumstances. Also, the rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq in the last
few months has been explosive. These facts indicate that many of the
alignment "details" are still to be determined. (Paragraph
corrected. 22-Jul)
Reuters and CNN Wire and AFP and Debka and Israel Hayom


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Alexander Borodai,
John Kerry, Igor Strelkov, Vladimir Putin,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Ban Ki-moon, Qatar, Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Turkey, Iran,
Sudan, Saudi Arabia,, China, Pakistan, India, Battle of Karbala

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances


Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics are aware of the
predictions, over a decade ago, of an approaching war between Jews and
Arabs, re-fighting the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that
following the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. However, there's been a need to fill in additional
details, and one of the most important and most puzzling "details" was
how the different Arab states would align themselves in that coming
war between Jews and Arabs. These alignments are now beginning to
clearly emerge.

I'd quibble with the word "genocidal" in characterizing the 1948 war after the founding of Israel. At least on the part of the Israelis, there was never a policy to get rid of the Palestinians. There were instances where the Palestinians were forcibly removed from their homes and other instances where they left, but there was no intent to do mass slaughter a la Rwanda.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

I'd quibble with the word "genocidal" in characterizing the 1948 war after the founding of Israel. At least on the part of the Israelis, there was never a policy to get rid of the Palestinians. There were instances where the Palestinians were forcibly removed from their homes and other instances where they left, but there was no intent to do mass slaughter a la Rwanda.

-Not on the part of the Haganah (which represented most Israelis), but the Irgun perpetrated Deir Yassin. If they'd had their way, who knows.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

> I'd quibble with the word "genocidal" in characterizing the 1948
> war after the founding of Israel. At least on the part of the
> Israelis, there was never a policy to get rid of the
> Palestinians. There were instances where the Palestinians were
> forcibly removed from their homes and other instances where they
> left, but there was no intent to do mass slaughter a la
> Rwanda.

I haven't written about this subject in a long time, but I don't use
the strictly legal definition of genocide. I use it to mean that the
value of a human life (usually a civilian life) has become effectively
zero, with the survival of the society or the state being the only
important priority. This is essentially the definition of a
generational crisis war as it approaches a climax. Under this
definition, the storming of Normandy Beach, the Bataan Death March,
the firebombing of Dresden and the nuking of Japanese cities are all
genocidal.

In the context of the current Gaza war, under this definition, Hamas's
actions are genocidal while Israel's currently are probably not.
However, as the fighting becomes more serious, I expect both sides'
actions to become increasingly genocidal.

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I haven't written about this subject in a long time, but I don't use
the strictly legal definition of genocide. I use it to mean that the
value of a human life (usually a civilian life) has become effectively
zero, with the survival of the society or the state being the only
important priority. This is essentially the definition of a
generational crisis war as it approaches a climax. Under this
definition, the storming of Normandy Beach, the Bataan Death March,
the firebombing of Dresden and the nuking of Japanese cities are all
genocidal.

In the context of the current Gaza war, under this definition, Hamas's
actions are genocidal while Israel's currently are probably not.
However, as the fighting becomes more serious, I expect both sides'
actions to become increasingly genocidal.

John

I would suggest using a different term than "genocidal" if you are using an alternative definition. Just my two cents.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

> I would suggest using a different term than "genocidal" if you are
> using an alternative definition. Just my two cents.

Do you have a suggestion? I've considered this question, since I've
received complaints in the past, but there's just no other word that's
as simple and descriptive. Any other word would require a paragraph of
explanation every time.

Also, I don't really think I have an obligation to use a different
word. For example, the word "murder" is also a technical legal term,
but people use it all the time in a sense that's not strictly legal,
and everyone knows what it means. My experience is that most people
understand "genocide" when I use it.

Finally, I would point out that I didn't use the word "genocidal" to
describe either side in the 1948 war. I said that the war itself was
"genocidal," allowing any reader to reach his own conclusions about
the guilt of each side. So that means that I probably would have been
better off not responding to your first message on this subject, since
talking about this subject will probably just get me into trouble with
one set of people or another.

John

*** 23-Jul-14 World View -- Al-Jazeera attacked by gunfire in Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Jazeera attacked by gunfire in Gaza, after Israel threatens expulsion
• Al-Jazeera banned for extreme bias
• Report: Israeli warplanes strike weapons arsenal in Sudan

****
**** Al-Jazeera attacked by gunfire in Gaza, after Israel threatens expulsion
****


Contentious al-Jazeera interviews on Monday with Hanan Ashrawi and Mark Regev

The Al-Jazeera office in Gaza city was attacked with gunfire
on Tuesday morning. No casualties were reported.
The attack came in the midst of the continuing war between Gaza
and Israel.

Al-Jazeera blamed the attack on Israel's foreign minister
Avigdor Lieberman, who threatened on Monday to expel al-Jazeera
from Israel. According to al-Jazeera:

<QUOTE>"The foreign minister’s comments were a direct threat
against us and appear to have been taken as a green light for the
targeting of our journalists in Gaza. We hold the Israeli
authorities fully responsible. They have put the lives of
journalists in danger."<END QUOTE>

Al-Jazeera has already been banned in Egypt, which accused it of
supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, considered a terrorist organization
by Egypt's government. Al-Jazeera is headquartered in Doha, and is
funded by Qatar, which has openly split
with Egypt over the Gaza war. Egypt has also jailed
al-Jazeera journalists just for reporting news in Egypt. ( "24-Jun-14 World View -- Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence"
)

Lieberman's statement indicates that Israel is also considering
banning al-Jazeera, claiming that it's openly biased against
Israel in the war with Gaza.

<QUOTE>"Qatar has turned into a global problem. Al Jazeera is
a central pillar of the propaganda apparatus of Hamas. ...

[Al-Jazeera] has abandoned even the perception of being a reliable
news organization and broadcasts from Gaza and to the world
anti-Israel incitement, lies, and encouragement to the
terrorists."<END QUOTE>

There are several versions of al-Jazeera. The one I listened to until
last year was al-Jazeera English. I've written about al-Jazeera's
biases several times in the past. The interesting thing about
al-Jazeera's biases is their attitudes towards the Palestinian
Authority and Hamas. Hamas is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, so
al-Jazeera loves Hamas, and hates the Palestinian Authority. In fact,
my perception has been that al-Jazeera hates the Palestinian Authority
and Mahmoud Abbas even more than it hates Israel and Benjamin
Netanyahu.

Al-Jazeera Arabic has been vitriolically anti-American since
its founding in 1996, and it provided open support for Osama
bin Laden following the 9/11/2001 attacks. Even in recent
years, al-Jazeera Arabic has continued to promote "a jihad
ideology."

****
**** Al-Jazeera banned for extreme bias
****

Starting in August of last year, al-Jazeera English was no longer
available in the United States. Good ol' former VP Al Gore, the
climate change saint, sold his defunct "Current TV" cable channel to
Al-Jazeera for half a billion dollars, and that channel became
"Al-Jazeera America" or AJAM.

Al-Jazeera America tries to emulate CNN by broadcasting the usual
political stuff from Washington, with an American point of view, with
far less anti-American and anti-Israeli vitriol than even Al-Jazeera
English. However, this almost makes it irrelevant, since why would
you want to hear about Washington from al-Jazeera, when you could hear
about it from CNN, Fox, or MSNBC? That's probably why it's been
doing poorly in the ratings, and has to lay people off. Al Gore
really put one over on the Emir of Qatar, getting half a billion
dollars for a defunct cable network.

I certainly agree that Al-Jazeera is a biased as people say it is, but
they're really not any more biased than, say, NBC News. NBC News
broadcasts what the Obama administration tells them to broadcast, and
Al-Jazeera broadcasts what the Emir of Qatar tells them to broadcast.
In both cases, there's a veneer of respectability and independence,
but in both cases the biases are consistent.

So if you're like me and you want all points of view on the news, then
the best time to listen to AJAM is during three particular hours of
the day: At 6 am ET, 9 am ET, and 2 pm ET. During these hours, AJAM
broadcasts the "Al-Jazeera News Hour" from al-Jazeera English, and so
you get a lot more of the point of view of Hamas and the Palestinians
during those time periods.

The 9 am ET hour on Monday was extremely contentious. The context was
that Israeli warplanes had struck the Al-Aqsa hospital in Gaza City.
They first interviewed Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi. She was
permitted to talk for 5 or 10 minutes almost without interruption:

<QUOTE>"Israel is engaged in war crimes. Israel is engaged
in state terrorism. It is targeting and killing civilians. ...

"We've heard some really disturbing statements, not just from
Netanyahu, but being repeated like a mantra from Obama and John
Kerry, talking about Israel in a state of self-defense, or the
Palestinians using their own children as human shields. ...

That kind of language is intensely racist. I'm amazed that they
even dare make these statements. Not only do they target you and
kill you, but they rob you of your humanity."<END QUOTE>

I don't know what "racism" has to do with this, but I assume she
learned that technique from the Obama administration. I was wondering
if she also thought that the Israelis were misogynistic and homophobic
as well, while she was at it.

After Ashrawi spoke for several minutes, unchallenged and almost
uninterrupted, the next interview was with Mark Regev, spokesman for
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The interview was
something of a shouting match, with the interviewer repeatedly
accusing Israel of targeting the al-Aqsa hospital, and Regev
repeatedly saying that civilian targets are legal when they're being
used by the enemy's "war machine."

By the end of the interview, both sides were furious and shouting.
Regev was asked once again, "Do you apply that to a hospital full of
patients? Yes or no?" and he responded:

<QUOTE>"I'll ask you a question.

If your al-Jazeera cameramen could take pictures of Hamas rockets
being launched from a hospital, then I'd be happy to answer
questions like that. But they're not allowed to take pictures,
because they know if they take pictures of rockets being fired
from civilian areas, then they'll get into trouble with the local
authorities.

Why is it that 2000 rockets have been fired on Israel, and you
haven't got a single picture of a rocket being fired from an urban
area?"<END QUOTE>

With that, the al-Jazeera interviewer responded: "We'll have to leave
it there. Thanks so much, Mark Regev, spokesman for the Israeli prime
minister." Al-Jazeera and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Report: Israeli warplanes strike weapons arsenal in Sudan
****

There are reports that Israeli warplanes on Friday struck a warehouse
in Khartoum, Sudan, that was holding long-range missiles from Iran
that were to be sent to Hamas in Gaza. Sudan admits that there was a
big explosion, but denies that the warehouse contained weapons, and
denied that Israel struck the warehouse. Israel has not commented.

As we reported yesterday in "22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances"
, Sudan is forming an alliance
with Qatar, Turkey and Iran in support of Hamas in its war
with Israel.

Two weeks ago, Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir was seen meeting with
Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal in Qatar. In October 2012, Sudanese
government blamed an Israeli airstrike for the explosion of a military
factory in the southern suburbs of Khartoum. Jerusalem Post and Sudan Tribune



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Al-Jazeera, Gaza, Israel, Avigdor Lieberman,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Qatar, Al Gore,
Hanan Ashrawi, Mark Regev, Sudan, Omar al-Bashir

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*** 24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas leader Meshaal demands an end to Gaza 'siege' before cease-fire
• Mahmoud Abbas reverses course and supports Hamas
• Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya

****
**** Hamas leader Meshaal demands an end to Gaza 'siege' before cease-fire
****


Khaled Meshaal giving speech on Wednesday (Al-Jazeera)

With US Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon running around from country to country in the Mideast, hoping
to get credit for being the one to mediate a cease-fire between Hamas
and Israel. However, a major speech by Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal on
Wednesday indicates that there is no hope of cease-fire. Meshaal
spoke for almost an hour, and repeatedly made it clear that Hamas
would not agree to a cease-fire.

More specifically, Meshaal made a series of demands that must precede
a cease-fire. The major demand, repeated over and over, is an end to
the "siege" of Gaza -- allow the free flow of goods and people in and
out of Gaza. Here are some excerpts from his speech:

<QUOTE>"It's been more than seven years, since 2006 [when
Israel imposed the siege]. It was a collective punishment for all
Palestinians because they elected their leaders through the ballot
box [referring to the election of Hamas to govern Gaza]. ...

Killing by siege and starvation is no less than killing by
bullets. Swift killing is as punishable as slow killing.
Besieging free men turns them into time bombs. It will explode
one day in the face of the occupier and those who have led the
siege. Gaza has turned into a fireball in the face of those who
have turned the siege to them. ...

Give me the price. What is the price to pay? How many Israeli
soldiers do you wish to see dead in order to see the siege lifted
from Gaza?"<END QUOTE>

Meshaal said that Hamas agreed to a cease-fire after the 2009 and 2012
wars, but the siege continued afterwards, and so Gaza accomplished
nothing. This time, Hamas will not agree to a cease-fire unless the
siege is ended first.

Ending the siege was Meshaal's principal demand. Other demands
included end the occupation of the West Bank, return Jerusalem to the
Palestinians, free the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, open
the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza, lift the naval
blockade, lift the border controls with Israel, allow 1948 Palestinian
refugees to return to their homes ("right of return").

Meshaal believes that because of the large numbers of Palestinian
casualties, international pressure on Israeli will force it to give up
and withdraw from Gaza. In fact, I've seen several pundits express
the view that the pressure is getting so great that Israel will have
to back down by the end of this week.

Meshaal also made a reference to the fact that American and European
airlines are refusing to land Israel's Ben Gurion airport, because of
Gaza's rockets. He said that Israel is almost "panicking" because of
an increased feeling of isolation. "They're starting to taste what we
have been tasting for years."

The logic of the situation is that no cease-fire is possible at this
time. Meshaal has made it clear that even if Israel backs down, then
the rocket attacks from Gaza will continue, and that would just force
Israel to return. On the other hand, even if Hamas agreed to a
cease-fire, the other Gaza militias will not go along, and once again,
the rocket attacks will continue.

It's also worth mentioning that one of Meshaal's demands is not even
under Israel's control. Israel has taken no position on whether Egypt
should open or close the Rafah border crossing, but the government of
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has made it clear that they consider Hamas to
be a terrorist group, and that the Rafah border crossing will remain
closed except for specific humanitarian purposes. Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and BBC

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas reverses course and supports Hamas
****

As I wrote for the first time in 2003,
it's the survivors of the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs
that have prevented a war that major from occurring again. In 2003,
Yassir Arafat and Ariel Sharon, both survivors of the 1948 war, were
the respective leaders of the Palestinians and Israelis. Today, both
of them are gone, and in fact, almost every other survivor is also
gone, with Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas being
the sole major leader with personal memories of the horrors of the
1948 war.

Since 2003, as the number of 1948 war survivors have disappeared, and
younger generations have grown to take their place, relations between
the Israelis and the Palestinians have become increasingly dangerous.
Among the Palestinians, Abbas has been the most important leader
engage in peace talks and oppose the worst forms of Palestinian
extremism, but his views are being opposed more and more by younger
generations within his own PA organization.

The Gaza war and its hundreds of Palestinian casualties may have been
a turning point for Abbas. Whereas he's been sharply critical of
Hamas almost every day until yesterday, on Tuesday he gave a speech
indicating a complete U-turn.

<QUOTE>"From the first moment of this barbaric Israeli
aggression against our people in Gaza, in Jerusalem, and in the
West Bank, we have called loudly about the necessity of stopping
this aggression. ...

We have appealed to Egypt and have held talks with the president
and with the relevant Palestinian factions, Hamas and the Islamic
Jihad. After that, we appealed to Turkey and Qatar; we approached
the leaderships in both countries, and we met there with [Hamas
political bureau head] Khaled Mashaal in order to stop the Israeli
aggression and to arrive at a ceasefire, and from there to act to
end the siege, to open the crossings, and to stop the aggression
in all its forms; we demanded that [Israel] respect the Gazans'
fishing rights, that it abolish the so-called 'buffer zones,' that
it free the prisoners from the Shalit deal that Israel has
re-arrested, that it free the fourth phase of the long-term
prisoners and Legislative Council members; that there be an
immediate operation to bring humanitarian aid [into Gaza], and
that there be an international conference for the [countries] that
are donating to Gaza's rehabilitation.

"The time has come for everyone to raise their voices and tell the
truth, clearly and powerfully, in the face of the Israeli killing
and destruction machine. The oppressing occupation forces have
crossed every line and [have broken] all the laws. They have
deviated from all standards of human and international morality in
their ferocity and barbarism."<END QUOTE>

If this is indeed a complete U-turn by Abbas, then it's an extremely
significant change in the geopolitics of the Mideast. It makes a
cease-fire even less likely, if that's possible. But also, it's a big
step forward toward the major war between Jews and Arabs that will
engulf the region. Memri and
BBC

****
**** Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya
****

Militants attacked an Egyptian military checkpoint on the border with
Libya on Saturday, kill 21 border guards. The attack began with an
exchange of gunfire, followed by the exploding of the checkpoint's
ammunition storage by means of rocket-propelled grenades.

Hundreds of people have been killed in terrorist attacks in Egypt in
the last year. The attacks have been focused mainly in northern Egypt
in Sinai, on the border with Gaza and Israel. Egypt has blamed many
of these attacks on militants from Hamas.

These two stories are closely related. There are large caches of
weapons and explosives that were left behind during the war that
defeated Muammar Gaddafi, and militants have been transporting these
arms and explosives from Libya by various routes to Sinai. (See "2-Apr-14 World View -- Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives from Libya"
)

The terrorists who killed the border guards on Saturday are believed
to be part of that transportation network.

So Saturday's terrorist attack may have been far away from the war in
Gaza, but it's closely connected, and it helps explain why Egypt is
not likely to help end the "siege" of Gaza by opening the border
crossing at Rafah. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Khaled Meshaal,
John Kerry, Ban Ki-moon, Israel, Egypt, Ben Gurion airport,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon,
Sinai

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*** 25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace
• Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

****
**** UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace
****


Aftermath of missile strike in Gaza (CNN)

Jeffrey Feldman, the United Nations Undersecretary for Political
Affairs, was interviewed on the BBC on Thursday, and asked why this
iteration of the war between the Israelis and Hamas should be any
different that the last ones, in 2008 and 2012.

He was asked:

<QUOTE>"When the world thinks about just the two most recent
bouts of violence -- major violence between Israel and Palestinian
militants in Gaza in 2008 and 2012, essentially the dispute was
exactly the same as this - which was - Israel was saying, "We
simply can't put up with rockets being fired onto our territory,"
and Hamas was saying, "We want the blockade of Gaza lifted."

The two sides are saying exactly the same thing again now. When
we finally do get to a ceasefire, which undoubtedly we will at
some point - what's to make you or anybody else think that we
simply won't be back here again in a couple of years
time?"<END QUOTE>

His response:

<QUOTE>"That's definitely a risk.

And I go back to the Security Council resolution that we passed
back in January 2009, in one of th earlier episodes of violence
that you've referred to. Because that security council resolution
put obligations on the parties to do certain things -- to address
the very issues you raise.

It's intolerable for both the Palestinians and the Israelis that
the situation that existed before this current round of violence
started continues. The situation doesn't simply repeat itself,
but it seems to get worse with every time the repetition comes in.
That shock is what I hope we can use in order to get the Israelis
and Palestinians awake to address the underlying issues of
security, of access, of trade and transport and
movement."<END QUOTE>

So Feldman acknowledges that the situation is getting worse each time,
but comes to the truly incredible solution that this is going to
"shock" the Israelis and Hamas into an agreement, presumably that
Israel will end the blockade, and Hamas will stop shooting rockets.
How can someone who claims to be an "expert" know so little about
history as to reach this inane conclusion?

I'm always reminded about the 2005-8 time frame, and the number of
people that I told, I exhorted, not to buy real estate, because there
was a big real estate bubble, and they would lose everything. Many
went ahead, and lost everything, and then were furious at me because
of human perversity. I understood that they weren't mad at me -- they
were mad at themselves for having been so stupid.

For the past few years, when I talk about China's increasingly
bellicose and obvious preparations for preemptive war with the United
States, I've found that many people don't even want to think about it
in any way. It's not that they have even a minimally informed
opinion, but they consider it as impossible as, say, the bursting of a
real estate bubble. (v. Churchill)

I'm finding exactly the same sort of attitude today with respect to
the war between the Israelis and Hamas. It's possible, even likely,
that Israel will "win" this war. But will the Palestinians be so
"shocked" by this that they'll give up their demands for the "right of
return" and the elimination of Israel?

As Feldman says, the trend has been in the opposite direction. Things
are getting worse during each repetition. That's the trend. When a
trend exists, if you're going to argue that the trend won't continue,
then you need at least to provide a rational explanation why you
believe that. But Feldman is predicting that the trend will fall off
a cliff, and he's providing no explanation whatsoever except wishful
thinking. And remember, this is from a so-called "expert."

What's changed in the Mideast between 2008 and now? What's changed is
that each year more combative people from younger generations replace
more compromising people in key positions from older generations,
especially generations that survived the incredible horrors of the
1948 war. That's what Generational Dynamics is all about, it never
ceases to amaze that that no matter how utterly obvious these
generational predictions and analyses are, and no matter how many
times the generational predictions turn out to be right, over and over
and over, while the ideologues on all sides turn out to be wrong,
there are many people who simply cannot wrap their heads around the
possibility that these predictions will actually occur -- until they
do occur, and there's no choice. It's just human nature for people to
stick their heads in the sand, as ostriches allegedly do. But humans
are much more ostrich-like than ostriches. Spiegel

****
**** Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?
****

Hamas has been facing a great deal of international criticism for
using Palestinian children as "human shields," putting rockets and
missiles in schools and hospitals. A couple of days ago, we quoted Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi
absurdly characterizing such charges as "racism."

On Thursday, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal was asked on the BBC to
further provide an explanation:

<QUOTE>INTERVIEWER: How can any idea of resistance justify
putting rockets in a school building?

MESHAAL: Frankly speaking, this is a lie. Let Israelis show where
the rocket launchers are in Gaza.

INTERVIEWER: This is not something that has come form Israel.
This is the UN Relief and Works Agency.

MESHALL: This is not true. Rocket launchers in Gaza belong to the
resistance. They are underground, and Israel is unable to reach
them. This is why it pretends they are in civilian
areas.<END QUOTE>

So we have a perfectly reasonable question, and we have two bizarre
answers from two Palestinian representatives. It's a sign of
desperation that Hamas has not been able to come up with satisfactory
narrative to the "human shield" question.

The repeated lying is a sign of desperation, and in fact, Hamas may be
so desperate that it's not certain that it will survive this war, no
matter who "wins." This is another thing that's changed in the
Mideast since the previous wars. Hamas used to have strong support
from Syria and Egypt. But the Syrian genocide has caused a rift,
while the Egyptian military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood
government led by Mohammed Morsi has turned Hamas from a friend of
Egypt to an enemy. Add to that, the Gaza economy is on the ropes, and
there are numerous reports that the Hamas government cannot even pay
its own employees. Finally, it's worth repeating that the median age
in Gaza is 18, which means that, to a large extent, it's the newer
militias that are de facto in charge, with the aging Hamas bureaucracy
becoming less relevant. So, it's not unreasonable to consider that
Hamas will not survive the Gaza war, no matter what its outcome.

As we've described recently ( "22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances"
), Hamas still has some powerful
supporters -- namely, Qatar, Turkey and Iran.

But Israel also has extremely powerful Arab allies -- Egypt and Saudi
Arabia. Reports are emerging that these countries are fully committed
to helping Israel defeat Hamas. Egypt's peace initiative last week
was specifically designed so that Israel could accept it, while Hamas
would have to reject it. The Saudis are using economic pressure in
Europe to be evenhanded about condemning "criminal" acts by Hamas and
Israel, and to go along with Israel's demand that Hamas be
"demilitarized," in order for peace to be permanent. These actions
provide political cover for Israel in the international arena, despite
the huge numbers of Palestinian casualties, and permit Israel to
continue its military campaign unhindered by complaints from the Obama
administration and John Kerry.

What Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are planning for is the
destruction of the Hamas government and its military capabilities,
replacing it with a new government headed by a (hopefully) more
moderate Palestinian Authority. For this plan to succeed, Israel's
military attack on Gaza would have to become even more forceful and
potent than it already is, in order to clean up the Hamas military
structure as rapidly as possible.

Well, this would be a breathtaking development, assuming that these
reports are true. But from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, I would have to provide exactly the same kinds of warnings
and cautions that I provided by Jeffrey Feldman at the start of this
World View column.

Let's assume that all these objectives are met successfully, that
Hamas has been removed, and a "moderate" Palestinian government has
been installed. The "trend" that things are getting worse, described
by Feldman, would not be changed by this development. Whatever the
government, Gaza would still have a dense population with an average
age of 18 years old, making it a territory being run by children with
guns, rockets and missiles. There is no reason to be believe that a
"moderate" government would be any more successful in governing Gaza
as Hamas. And there's no reason to believe that this kind of military
victory and imposed government wouldn't lead to a new war in a couple
of years time, even worse than this one. Middle East Eye and BBC and
Israel Hayom and CNN and Debka (paywall)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jeffrey Feldman, United Nations,
Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Hanan Ashrawi, Khaled Meshaal,
Qatar, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt

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*** 26-Jul-14 World View -- Israel rejects 7-day ceasefire, agrees to 12-hour ceasefire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel rejects 7-day ceasefire, agrees to 12-hour ceasefire
• Ebola victim escapes from hospital, putting Freetown at risk

****
**** Israel rejects 7-day ceasefire, agrees to 12-hour ceasefire
****

US Secretary of State John Kerry has been running around from country
to country in the Mideast trying to sell a 7-day "give peace a chance"
plan. The plan has already been rejected by both Hamas and Israel.
The details of the plan were not published, but the issues are being
widely discussed:

• Hamas cannot agree to a ceasefire without being able to show a
  tangible benefit to the Palestinian people. As we reported yesterday,
  Hamas has become so
  weakened that it may not survive without being able to demonstrate
  some success. Without that, its legitimacy and authority would be
  seriously undermined at home, and it would be displaced by Islamic
  Jihad or another more radical group in Gaza.
  
• In particular, Hamas is insisting that any sort of ceasefire or
  peace agreement must involve lifting Israel's "siege" or blockade of
  Gaza. ( "24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire"
  .) Neither Egypt nor Israel is willing to permit
  free flow of people and materials in and out of Gaza, as both
  countries consider Gaza to be a security threat.
  
• Israel has said that its major objective is to destroy Hamas's
  tunnel system, as well as its supply of rockets. According to some
  reports, Israel has already destroyed about 6,000 of Hamas's supply of
  about 10,000 rockets, and wants to complete the job as quickly as
  possible.
  
• Hamas will not consider any ceasefire agreement unless Israel's
  military withdraws completely from Gaza. Israel will not consider any
  temporary ceasefire that requires such a withdrawal, so that the
  military would effectively have to start over when the ceasefire ends.
  In fact, reports indicate that even in a ceasefire, Israel would
  insist on continuing to blow up border tunnels that run underground
  from Gaza into Israel. This is completely unacceptable to Hamas.
  
• Any agreement would almost certainly require Egypt to be involved.
  Egypt was a principle mediator in the last Gaza war in 2012, when
  Mohamed Morsi was president. But Morsi has been ousted, and relations
  between Egypt and Hamas are now extremely tense.
  
• Hamas might agree to a 7-day ceasefire, but Israel believes that
  this would only give Hamas time to import more powerful weapons from
  Iran. (Iran sends weapons to Sudan; the Sudanese transport them to
  the Bedouins in Egypt's north Sinai, and the Bedouins smuggle them
  into Gaza through underground tunnels.)
  
• In particular, the Israelis are using tank technology called
  "Armored Shield Protection-Active Trophy missile defense system,"
  known as the Windbreaker. Hamas has no anti-tank missiles that defeat
  these tanks. Israel believes that Hamas would use a 7-day ceasefire
  to import Iranian missiles capable of defeating the tanks.

Israel did not want Kerry to leave the Mideast empty-handed, so it
agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire on Saturday.

Both Hamas and Israel have taken very hard positions. The logic of
the situation is that neither side can agree to a cease-fire without
the humiliation of backing down, so it appears most likely that this
war will continue until Israel can claim to have achieved its
objectives -- destroy the tunnels and destroy the rockets. Israel
probably has one or two more weeks to do that. Jerusalem Post and Debka

****
**** Ebola victim escapes from hospital, putting Freetown at risk
****

The deadly Ebola virus continues to spread rapidly in western Africa.
Since February, there have been 1,093 Ebola cases to date in Sierra
Leone, Liberia and Guinea, including 660 who have died. Sierra Leone
officials are extremely concerned that a woman with Ebola in Freetown,
the capital city of Sierra Leone, densely populated with about 1
million inhabitants, escaped from the isolation ward of a hospital,
when her family stormed the hospital and forcibly removed her. Ebola
is not airborne, but it's spread through physical contact, and it's
feared that this woman might start a chain reaction that spreads the
disease rapidly through Freetown.

Another possible emergency situation is occurring in Lagos, the most
populous city in Nigeria with 5 million people. On Tuesday, a
40-year-old man from Liberia arrived by plane in Lagos, and passed out
in the airport. He was taken to a hospital and diagnosed with Ebola.
He died on Thursday. It's feared that he might have infected other
people on the plane, and those people might be roaming Lagos affecting
other people. An infected person may not show any symptoms for up to
two weeks, but can still infect other people before showing symptoms.
Reuters and Nigeria Guardian News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, John Kerry, Israel, Hamas, Gaza,
Egypt, Iran, Sudan,
Armored Shield Protection-Active Trophy missile defense system,
Ebola, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Nigeria

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*** 27-Jul-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader wants to annihilate Israel, but not Jews

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's Supreme Leader wants to annihilate Israel, but not Jews
• Influence of the Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war today
• A brief note on Iran's nuclear issue
• Israel extends the Gaza ceasefire by 24 hours, but Hamas does not

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader wants to annihilate Israel, but not Jews
****


Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei

It's not unusual for Iran to call for the annihilation of Israel, and
this week was no different, especially in the context of the war in
Gaza. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, gave a
speech on Friday, Qods Day (Jerusalem Day), an annual event by Iran to
oppose Israel's control of Jerusalem. His speech called for an end to
Israel:

<QUOTE>"These crimes [of Israel in Gaza] defy imagination.
They are the essence of [Israel's] wolf-like and child-killer
regime, for which the only solution is its annihilation and
liquidation. Of course, until that time [when this happens], the
determined and armed Palestinian resistance, and its spread to the
West Bank, are the only way to deal with that bestial regime. ...

As the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini [Khamenei's predecessor]
said, Israel must be liquidated. [But] the annihilation of Israel
as the only way to a real solution does not mean the annihilation
of the Jews in the region. In order [to carry out] this logical
operation [of annihilating Israel] there is a practical apparatus
that the Islamic Republic [of Iran] is presenting to the
international community. Based on this apparatus, which is
acceptable to the nations [of the world], people living in the
region, and belonging to it, will be polled to find out what
regime they prefer. In this way, the occupying and forged regime
[of Israel] will be annihilated. Of course, until that heartless
and child-killer regime is destroyed, the forceful struggle, and
determined and armed resistance, are the [only] path to solving
[the problem of] this destructive regime...

Therefore, it is my belief that the West Bank should be armed just
like Gaza. Anyone who cares about the fate of Palestine, and who
is capable of doing something, should provide arms to the people
[of the West Bank] too..."<END QUOTE>

I can't recall ever seeing this sharp distinction between the
"wolf-like" Israeli regime, which is to be annihilated, and the Jewish
people, who will NOT be annihilated, and will even be permitted to
live in the region. He's actually recommending that all the people in
the region participate in a referendum to decide who will govern them.
This sharp distinction may represent a change in Iran's
Islamic hardline policies.

Before commenting more on this, I'd first like to quote another
Iranian Qods Day speaker, a military commander named Ali Fazli who
says that the Palestinians in Gaza are partners in the resistance
against Israel:

<QUOTE>"The people of Gaza are undoubtedly Shi'ite... because
the people of Gaza could not have stood against the Zionist regime
and sacrificed itself for two weeks with resistance alone. The
blood spilled in Gaza and Palestine for the defense of all of
Islam connects the Shia and the Sunna, and therefore the
resistance front should unite and preserve its unity against the
arrogance."<END QUOTE>

There are frequently many bizarre statements coming out of Iran, but
this has to be one of the most bizarre of all time. In no way are the
people of Gaza "undoubtedly Shi'ite." To the contrary, Gaza is
overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, with a tiny minority of Shia Muslims.
Furthermore, there have been outbreaks of sectarian violence between
Shia and Sunni groups in Gaza, and Shias have complained about the
violence against them. Memri and
Al Monitor

****
**** Influence of the Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war today
****

When you're commenting on Iran, as I have been for many years, you
have to understand that Iran is in the midst of a generational
Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, and that there's a cavernous
"generation gap" separating the attitudes of the old geezers, the
survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war, and
the attitudes of the people in the younger generations that grew up
after the war.

Iran's population was enormously unified by the Great Islamic
Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war, and that's the social climate that
the geezers, like Khamenei, would like to bring about again. A signal
event in 1979 was the takeover of the American embassy in Iran, and
Iran's senior leaders look for ways to repeat that event in one way or
another, to bring about renewed unity today, something that's
impossible in a generational Awakening era.

So what you have in Iran is a senior leadership holding fantastical
beliefs that are totally out of touch with reality.

The principal fantastical belief, which I've written about a number of
times over the years, is Khamenei's fantasy of gaining hegemony over
the entire Arabian peninsula, and governing the Muslim world in the
same way that the Ottoman Empire governed prior to its destruction.
We've pointed out that this fantasy can never be realized because the
Sunni Arab population will never agree to be governed by the Shia
Persian Iranians.

The bizarre excerpts from the two Qods Day speeches that I quoted
above are manifestations of these fantasies. In the view of Iran's
geezers, Sunnis, Shias and Jews will be all alike, and will all be
governed by a new Persian empire, just like the old Ottoman Empire.
The only thing standing in the way of a new Persian Empire is the
"wolf-like" Zionist regime, which must be annihilated, and rest
settled by a referendum.

What's new in Khamenei's speech this time is the sharp distinction
between Israel and Jews, where one is to be annihilated and the other
not. However, with or without this distinction, the whole thing is a
bizarre fantasy on the part of the senior Iranian leadership.

****
**** A brief note on Iran's nuclear issue
****

When I write about the attitudes and beliefs of senior Iranian
leadership coming out of the Great Islamic Revolution and the
Iran/Iraq war, it's worthwhile to add a brief note on the nuclear
issue.

There is no doubt in my mind that Iran will develop nuclear weapons.
Iran was attacked with weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in 1988 by
Iraq, and Iran would already have developed nuclear weapons if Saddam
Hussein hadn't been expelled by the Iraq war in 2003. Iran sees
itself surround by potential enemies, Pakistan and Israel, both having
nuclear weapons. For Iran, developing nuclear weapons is an
existential issue.

However, as I've described before, Iran takes an enormous amount of
pride in not having invaded other countries, even though other
countries have invaded Iran. If you look back at Iran's major wars of
the last century -- the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade,
the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, Iran never attacked anyone else. This is now part of Iran's
DNA, and even the top leadership would be repulsed by the idea of a
preemptive attack on Israel.

So my conclusion is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons as a
defensive measure, but has no plans at all to use them on Israel,
which is what is widely believed. In fact, even the Qods Day speeches
quoted above emphasize this fact. Khamenei is calling for the
destruction of the Israeli regime, not the destruction of Jews, and
certainly not the destruction of all the Muslims who also live in and
around Israel.

****
**** Israel extends the Gaza ceasefire by 24 hours, but Hamas does not
****

Hamas has given Israel a new major credibility boost by refusing to
extend Saturday's 12 hour truce by 24 hours, to Sunday midnight GMT,
while Israel has done so unilaterally. In fact, reports indicate that
Gaza was shooting rockets at Tel Aviv within 3 minutes after the
12-hour ceasefire.

Although Israel is observing a unilateral ceasefire, it is continuing
military operations against the tunnels on the border between Gaza and
Israel, since these tunnels are used by Hamas to enter Israel for
terrorist operations. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Hamas, Gaza, Israel, Qods Day, Jerusalem, Turkey, Ottoman Empire,
Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war, Persian Empire,
Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Pakistan, Constitutional Revolution

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*** 28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war
• Generational timeline for Libya
• United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars

****
**** Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war
****


Black plumes of smoke rise from the fighting in Benghazi (Reuters)

The United States, Britain, Turkey, and other countries are closing
their embassies in Tripoli, Libya, and asking their employees to flee
as quickly as possible to the safety of neighboring Tunisia. Libya's
government, such as it is, appears to have completely lost control of
the country, and tribal battles are becoming more violent, especially
in Tripoli and Benghazi. Over 150 people have died in clashes
in and around the two cities during the last two weeks. This is
the deadliest violence in Libya since the 2011 Libyan war.

Three years after the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi, the country
is becoming polarized between two main militia factions.

In the chaos that followed the end of the war, the Islamist militias
centered in the city of Misurata led an effort to eliminate all
politicians who had supported Gaddafi. This resulted in the political
elimination of many moderate politicians, leaving the Islamists in
charge.

Until two months ago, Islamist militias linked to the Muslim
Brotherhood were in control of Tripoli, Benghazi, and other cities.
These included the Misurata militias, and other militias that joined
as allies. One of these is Ansar al-Sharia, operating in Benghazi,
which is believed responsible for the September 11, 2012, attack in
Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other
Americans. The political wing of the Islamist militias is the Justice
and Construction Party, which is affiliated with the Muslim
Brotherhood, and controls the parliament, known as the General
National Congress (GNC).

In May, an anti-Islamist military action was launched by other
militias that opposed the Islamist militias. These militias,
sometimes called "nationalist militias," are headed by 71 year old
Khalifa Hifter (or Hafter). Hifter was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in
the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the
1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen
living in Virginia. He returned to Libya after the 2011 war, and is
now leading the military operation to overthrow the Islamists.

Hifter leads the Libyan National Army, and is backed by many former
military officers as well as militias tied to the cities of Benghazi,
Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west. Reuters and LA Times

****
**** Generational timeline for Libya
****


Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Developing a generational timeline for Libya has been a very difficult
task because of the paucity of information about the tribal wars that
occurred during Libya's colonial period. However, during the 2011
Libyan war, correspondence with several web site readers led to the
conclusion that Libya's last generational crisis war began in 1911
when the Italians defeated the Ottoman empire in Tripolitania. In the
1920s, there were a series of extremely bloody, brutal massacres of
Libyan tribes, first in Cyrenaica, and then in Fezzan, wiping out a
large percentage of the Libyan population. This analysis has to be
tempered by the observation that Libya is a large country with many
tribes, and some portions of the country may be on separate
generational timelines. However, for the populated northern regions,
the last generational crisis war appears to have been the Italian
conquests, climaxing in 1934.

This analysis implies that Libya is deep into a generational crisis
era. As we pointed out at the conclusion of the 2011 war, it's highly
likely that the war will be resumed, and some of the tribal wars of
the 1930s will probably be re-fought. Fighting between the two major
groups of militias has been steadily increasing since May, and it's
possible that we're seeing the start of that now.

****
**** United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars
****

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is developing a space program with the
intention of eventually landing human beings on Mars. It's felt that
the space program could also inspire thousands of Emiratis to pursue
careers in the space industry, opening the door to new research bodies
and university courses in aerospace engineering, resulting in
"millions of young scientists and engineers." The National (UAE)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Benghazi, Muammar Gaddafi,
Misurati, Ansar al-Sharia, Chris Stevens,
Justice and Construction Party,
Muslim Brotherhood, Generational National Congress, GNC,
Khalifa Hifter, Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, Fezzan, Italy,
United Arab Emirates, Mars

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I hate to admit it, but given what has happened since 1919 and most especially the past 5 or so years, I think the end of the Ottoman Empire was a grave error. Bring it back. It may not have been perfect, but bring it back.

*** 29-Jul-14 World View -- Huge fuel depot fire threatens Tripoli Libya with explosion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Huge fuel depot fire threatens Tripoli Libya with explosion
• Liberia closes national borders to prevent spread of Ebola virus
• Kerry shuts Egypt and Palestinian Authority out of Gaza 'peace plan'

****
**** Huge fuel depot fire threatens Tripoli Libya with explosion
****


Black smoke rises about Tripoli fuel depot fire (AFP)

A huge fuel depot near the airport in Libya's capital Tripoli is
burning out of control and spreading. The tanks contains some 20
million gallons of petrol and fuel. If the fire is not brought under
control, it could ignite liquid gas nearby, triggering a much larger
explosion, and causing a humanitarian and environmental disaster.
Densely populated Tripoli is being evacuated within a 3-km radius of
the airport. Authorities are asking for international assistance in
fighting the fire.

The fuel depot fire is the result of the growing tribal warfare in
Libya that we described yesterday.

It's believed that the Islamist militias, centered in Misurata,
launched missiles into fuel depot in order to trigger the fire and
explosion. Anti-Islamist militias, centered in Zintan, that had been
fighting the Islamists had been defending the airport.

With anarchy spreading, many foreigners in Libya are fleeing the
country. On Monday, the Netherlands, Philippines, Austria, China and
India became the next countries to evacuate their citizens and embassy
staff. The United States, Britain, United Nations, and Turkey have
already closed their embassies. AFP and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Liberia closes national borders to prevent spread of Ebola virus
****

Liberia is closing all its borders, and is instituting a new travel
policy to inspect and test all outgoing and incoming passengers, in
the hope of slowing the spread of Ebola. Ebola has already killed 660
people across the region, since the outbreak began in February.

This is the worst Ebola outbreak in history, not only because of the
numbers killed, but also because of its geographic spread. Some
officials in Doctors without Borders are expressing the fear that the
number of Ebola patients identified so far are "just the tip of the
iceberg." There are many villages in western Africa that are not
easily accessible, and there have been stories, perhaps only rumors,
of entire villages disappearing because of Ebola. It's possible,
though not certain, that Ebola is far more widespread than is
currently known. Ebola is not airborne, but it's spread through
physical contact Reuters

****
**** Kerry shuts Egypt and Palestinian Authority out of Gaza 'peace plan'
****

Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO) officials are furious at an apparent
attempt by US Secretary of State John Kerry, whether by clumsiness or
by intention, to shut Egypt and the PLO out of a Gaza "peace
conference" held in Paris on Saturday, and a related proposed "peace
agreement." The Paris conference was attended by Kerry and
representatives of Turkey and Qatar, as well as France, Germany,
Britain and Italy. But Israel, Egypt and the PLO were not invited.

Turkey and Qatar are allies of Hamas. Israeli officials say that
Kerry's proposed "peace agreement," which has not been officially
released to the public, meets all the demands and talking points of
Hamas (ending the "siege"), but does not address any of the security
concerns of Israel (disarming Hamas). The implication was not that
Kerry is malevolent, but that he doesn't understand the issues.

Even worse, Kerry's plan undermined a peace plan that had previously
been offered by Egypt, and was agreed by Israel and the PLO.

According to a statement by a furious Palestinian Authority official:

<QUOTE>"Kerry proposed his initiative after we were very
close to a comprehensive agreement guaranteeing the lifting of the
siege on Gaza and obtaining all the Palestinian demands. If the
issue was lifting the siege, abolishing the buffer zones, opening
the crossings, and expanding the fishing zones, we could have
obtained this on Wednesday [July 23]. An announcement of [this
achievement] was ready for publication – but (Hamas political
bureau head Khaled) Mashaal called a press conference and
destroyed the [PLO] initiative."<END QUOTE>

Noting that Hamas is an offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, which
Egypt has declared a terrorist organization, another PLO official
said:

<QUOTE>"The Palestinian leadership and people promote every
Arab, regional, or international effort to stop Israel's war, stop
the bloodletting, and defend the Palestinian people in the [Gaza
Strip] – while the conference and the forces participating in it
prove that it was not innocent and does not strive to stop
Israel's shedding of Palestinian blood. Its objective was to
circumvent the Egyptian initiative and Egypt's role, and to plan
to return to shaping the region according to the American vision
and according to the U.S.-Israeli plan that will restore the
Muslim Brotherhood to their status."<END QUOTE>

It seems that every three or four weeks it's necessary to talk about
yet one more foreign policy debacle by John Kerry, who gives every
sign of not having the vaguest clue what's going on in the world.
Kerry burst onto the scene in 1971 when he declared to the Senate that
U.S. Army soldiers were rapists and torturers and no better than Nazi
stormtroopers, and he's been belittling the army and the United States
ever since. As Secretary of State, he says and does one stupid thing
after another, and lurches from one foreign policy debacle to the
next. His boss, President Obama, does no better, allowing the US to
suffer one humiliation after another.

It's worth repeating that this isn't just a matter of "there's nothing
that Obama can do." This is all happening because of a major policy
reversal by the Obama administration. America has been "policeman of
the world," since President Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947. Every President
since then has fulfilled that commitment till now, because the cost of
a small military action was always better than a repeat of something
as enormous as World War II. President Obama has repudiated that
commitment. The analogy is the New York City police. They don't have
to declare all out war to fight crime. But if they simply stopped
policing and told all the criminals that they would negotiate an end
to crime, then crime would soar. By repudiating the Truman Doctrine,
the Policeman of the World has said it would stop policing, with the
result of one foreign policy debacle after another. Washington Post and Memri and
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and France 24


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tripoli, Libya, Misurata, Zintan,
Liberia, Ebola,
John Kerry, Egypt, Palestinian Authority, PA, PLO,
Turkey, Qatar, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine

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*** 30-Jul-14 World View -- Uighurs launch massive knife-wielding terrorist attack in China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's secret weapon in the South China Sea: 50,000 fishing boats
• Uighurs launch massive knife-wielding terrorist attack in China
• China says that some Uighurs are in Syria for jihadist training

****
**** China's secret weapon in the South China Sea: 50,000 fishing boats
****


Chinese fishing boats

As China moves into the South China Sea, annexing islands and
territories that have historically belonged to other nations, and
threatening anyone who tries to stop them with war, China is using, as
strategic asset, 50,000 fishing boats -- from privately owned craft
to commercial trawlers. Each of these boats is equipped with a
satellite navigation system that gives the captain a direct link to
the Chinese coast guard. In case of bad weather, or a Philippine or
Vietnamese boat in waters annexed by China, he can signal the coast
guard for military help. China is encouraging boat owners to fish in
disputed areas historically belonging to other nations, in order to
establish a claim. The reason given for Chinese assertiveness is that
China's per-capita fish consumption is 35.1 kg, nearly double the
global average of 18.9 kg. The UN projects that by 2030 China’s fish
consumption will increase more than 60% from 2008 levels, to 57.4
million tonnes (63.3 million tons) -- more than a third of the global
total.

China is aggressively asserting claims to the entire South China Sea,
including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China is building a
network of airstrips and military garrisons in the South China Sea in
clear violation of international law, and refuses to participate in
any United Nations mediation efforts. Reuters and Quartz

****
**** Uighurs launch massive knife-wielding terrorist attack in China
****

Dozens of knife-wielding "thugs," presumed to be Muslim Uighur
separatists, conducted a "premeditated and carefully planned" attack
on a government building and police station in Ailixihu, a town in
China's restive northwest Xinjing province. The terrorists killed
dozens of Han and Uighur civilians and destroyed 31 vehicles,
presumably because of their association with the local branch of the
hated Beijing government. The police killed "dozens" of the
attackers.

The attack occurred on Monday, but was kept secret by Chinese
authorities, who issued the following censorship instructions
to the media:

<QUOTE>"Without exception, all media must refrain from
reporting on the violent terror incident in Shache County,
Xinjiang."<END QUOTE>

Any news of the incident was scrubbed from the internet as soon as it
was posted. However, news began to leak out to international media on
Tuesday morning, and by Tuesday evening, Xinhua published a story.

There have been increasing numbers of terrorist acts by Muslim Uighurs
in Xinjiang province. Chinese authorities have been doing everything
possible to suppress any practice of the Muslim religion, even going
so far, a month ago, of issuing orders that Uighurs are not permitted
to take part in
traditional fasting during the holy month of Ramadan, which ran this
year from Saturday, June 28th through the evening of Monday, July 28.
Uighurs were prevented from fasting in schools and public offices, and
inspections were to be made on Uighur residences. The attack came on
the last day of Ramadan. McClatchy and China Digital Times

****
**** China says that some Uighurs are in Syria for jihadist training
****

Wu Sike, China's special envoy for the Middle East, says that China is
extremely worried because Uighur jihadists from Xinjiang province have
gone to the Middle East for training, and may have joined the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) in order to join the fight in
Syria or Iraq.

According to Wu:

<QUOTE>"Several hot spot issues in the Middle East have
provided living space for terrorist groups, in particular the
crisis in Syria has turned this country into a training ground for
extremists from many countries.

These extremists come from Islamic countries, Europe, North
America and China. After being immersed in extremist ideas, when
they return home they will pose a severe challenge and security
risk to those countries. They won't necessarily all return (to
China). Some will remain to participate in the conflict, perhaps
crossing into Iraq. ...

China is a victim of extremist, terrorist activities, and our
support for fighting terrorism in this region is beneficial to us
too. As a result China and those countries are in a closely knit
community of shared interests."<END QUOTE>

People Daily and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Xinjiang,
Uighurs, Syria, Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

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