*** 31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
• Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

****
**** The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
****


Screen grab from Hamas video showing Hamas fighters kicking Israeli soldier

Israel received almost worldwide condemnation on Wednesday for air
strikes on a crowded Gaza marketplace and on a United Nations shelter,
killing or wounding over 100 innocent civilians, including women and
children.

On the other hand, Hamas released a taunting video of how they used
one of their tunnels under the border fence between Gaza and Israel on
Monday to surprise and kill five Israeli soldiers.

And yet, there is one thing that Hamas and the Israelis agree on: They
don't want to go back to the status quo ante.

Israelis are now aware of a massive tunnel complex under Gaza, much
more sophisticated than they'd previously estimated. Every (Jewish)
Israeli citizen is aware of the danger that this poses, and the left
and right are united in support of the army in continuing its ground
operations and air strikes on Gaza with the objective of destroying
the rockets and destroying the entire tunnel complex. Polls indicate
that Israelis will not agree to a ceasefire unless all army meets its
objectives.

Palestinians are aware that if they agree to a ceasefire now, before
the "siege" is lifted, then the war will have gained them nothing.
That means that the annihilation of hundreds of civilians, the
destruction of hundreds of homes, businesses and hospitals, the
devastation of Gaza's infrastructure -- all of that will have been for
nothing. Polls indicate that Palestinians will not agree to a
ceasefire unless the "siege" (blockade) is lifted, meaning that people
and goods can flow freely in and out of Gaza.

Thus, in a sense, this war has become "existential" for both sides.
Neither side can back down, which logically implies that the war will
continue for some time to come, to the point of exhaustion. Perhaps
someone can figure out a compromise -- say 90% of the tunnels are
destroyed, and some symbolic steps are taken to weaken the blockade.
Or perhaps Israel will re-occupy Gaza, reversing the decision it made
in 2005. Daily Mail (London) and AP and Al Arabiya and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia
****

American influence played a big role in Central Asia in the 1990s,
after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and grew even larger after
2001 when the Afghanistan war began. But now, American influence is
falling rapidly, as the U.S. withdraws troops from Afghanistan and, at
the same time, sharply reduces aid to Central Asian countries for such
things as anti-drug programs. There's probably no greater symbol of
this loss of influence than Manas International Airport in Bishkek,
the capital city of Kyrgyzstan. A couple of years ago, you would
typically see dozens of US C-17 transports, carrying troops and
equipment to and from Afghanistan. Today, the US is gone, and the
airport is almost deserted. Kyrgyzstan used to be a country of major
strategic importance, as it leveraged Russia and America against each
other, but now the country in clearly in Russia's orbit.

The change is highlighted by "Enduring Brotherhood 2014," joint
peacekeeping military exercises now taking place in Kyrgyzstan by the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military
cooperative of six countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. 700 troops are taking part in the
exercises, kicked off after a four-day drill by CSTO's Collective
Rapid Deployment Force. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA - New Delhi) and
Jamestown and Central Asia Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Israel, Hamas, United Nations,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Afghanistan, Enduring Brotherhood 2014,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
• Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

****
**** The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
****


Screen grab from Hamas video showing Hamas fighters kicking Israeli soldier

Israel received almost worldwide condemnation on Wednesday for air
strikes on a crowded Gaza marketplace and on a United Nations shelter,
killing or wounding over 100 innocent civilians, including women and
children.

On the other hand, Hamas released a taunting video of how they used
one of their tunnels under the border fence between Gaza and Israel on
Monday to surprise and kill five Israeli soldiers.

And yet, there is one thing that Hamas and the Israelis agree on: They
don't want to go back to the status quo ante.

Israelis are now aware of a massive tunnel complex under Gaza, much
more sophisticated than they'd previously estimated. Every (Jewish)
Israeli citizen is aware of the danger that this poses, and the left
and right are united in support of the army in continuing its ground
operations and air strikes on Gaza with the objective of destroying
the rockets and destroying the entire tunnel complex. Polls indicate
that Israelis will not agree to a ceasefire unless all army meets its
objectives.

Palestinians are aware that if they agree to a ceasefire now, before
the "siege" is lifted, then the war will have gained them nothing.
That means that the annihilation of hundreds of civilians, the
destruction of hundreds of homes, businesses and hospitals, the
devastation of Gaza's infrastructure -- all of that will have been for
nothing. Polls indicate that Palestinians will not agree to a
ceasefire unless the "siege" (blockade) is lifted, meaning that people
and goods can flow freely in and out of Gaza.

Thus, in a sense, this war has become "existential" for both sides.
Neither side can back down, which logically implies that the war will
continue for some time to come, to the point of exhaustion. Perhaps
someone can figure out a compromise -- say 90% of the tunnels are
destroyed, and some symbolic steps are taken to weaken the blockade.
Or perhaps Israel will re-occupy Gaza, reversing the decision it made
in 2005. Daily Mail (London) and AP and Al Arabiya and Jerusalem Post

I don't know how much of this is true, but if it is, this puts Israeli actions in an entirely new light.

Israeli Hebrew – and English – language media outlets reported early Friday that Hamas’s offensive tunnel network – which is now known to have been composed of over two dozen attack tunnels dug underneath Israel’s border with the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip – was set to be activated during the Jewish High Holidays in the form of a mass terror attack. Israeli security sources, citing information acquired in interrogations of captured Hamas fighters, described a scenario under which hundreds of heavily armed Hamas fighters would have spilled out into Israel in the dead of night and within 10 minutes have been in a position to infiltrate several sparsely populated and lightly guarded Israeli communities. Palestinian terrorists would then – per an assessment conveyed by i24news – have sought to “kill and kidnap as many Israelis as they could.” Details of plot, which were first published by the Hebrew-language Ma’ariv, described it as set to take place when Israelis would have been celebrating the Jewish New Year, on or around September 24.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

I don't know how much of this is true, but if it is, this puts Israeli actions in an entirely new light.

Thanks for the reference!

John

*** 1-Aug-14 World View -- The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for
• Questions about the Palestinian delegation to the ceasefire talks
• The Rafah crossing becomes a major issue in the Gaza war
• Report: Hamas planned massive attack through tunnels on Israeli citizens

****
**** The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for
****


Hamas tunnel

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and U.N. Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon jointly announced on Thursday a 3-day ceasefire
in the Gaza war, to begin on Friday morning. The ceasefire
will allow time to provide humanitarian aid to Gazans.

Israeli and Palestinian delegations will go immediately to Cairo
Egypt, with the aim of reaching "a durable ceasefire."

As I wrote yesterday,
Israel and
Hamas agree on very little, but one thing that they both agree on is
that neither side will accept an agreement that restores the status
quo ante. This observation leads to a number of issues
and questions:

During the ceasefire, Israel's troops will remain in place in Gaza,
according to the ceasefire announcement. However, the ceasefire
statement left open the question of whether the Israeli army would
continue military operations to destroy the Hamas tunnel network
during the ceasefire. Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu stated
clearly, prior to the ceasefire announcement, that the army would
continue these military operations "with or without a ceasefire."
It's unclear whether Hamas was aware of these terms when they agreed
to the ceasefire. It's also unclear what Hamas's reaction would
be in case a Palestinian is accidentally killed during these
military operations.

The ceasefire announcement came several hours after Israel announced
that it was calling up 16,000 more army reservists. It's unclear what
role they'll have now.

The "durable ceasefire" negotiations will begin as soon as all the
parties arrive in Cairo. It's known that an Israeli delegation, a
Palestinian delegation, the U.S. and Egypt will take part in the
negotiations. BBC and
Jerusalem Post

****
**** Questions about the Palestinian delegation to the ceasefire talks
****

It's not entirely clear what the makeup of the Palestinian delegation
will be. The U.S. and Israel insist that Hamas, which is viewed as a
terrorist group, must not be given the same status as the other
parties, and so the U.S. and Israel will not sit at the same table as
Hamas. However, recall that the Palestinians recently agreed to a
"unity government," joining the Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO/Fatah)
and Hamas into a single government. The plan is for Palestinian
president Mahmoud Abbas to represent the unity government, including
Hamas, as well as other Palestinian factions, such as Islamic Jihad.
It will be interesting to see how that goes.

Israel's committed military objectives are to totally disarm
Hamas by destroying all the rockets and tunnels. Since those
objectives will not be reached, will Israel agree to extending
the ceasefire beyond 3 days, if it even lasts that long?

And suppose by some miracle Israel succeeded in destroying every
single rocket and every single tunnel. What would prevent Hamas from
reconstructing them in the event of a permanent ceasefire? Reuters

****
**** The Rafah crossing becomes a major issue in the Gaza war
****

Hamas's committed objective is to get the "siege" lifted, which would
permit people and goods to flow freely out of Gaza. There are a few
border crossings into Israel, but the most important aspect of this
objective is opening the Rafah border crossing that connects Egypt and
Gaza. If Hamas agrees to a ceasefire without getting the Rafah
crossing opened, then Hamas will almost certainly not survive with
Gaza. So Hamas needs the Rafah crossing open just for its own
survival.

The Rafah crossing was closed in July of last year following an attack
on Egyptian security forces by Islamists linked to Hamas. Since then
it's been closed almost permanently. Even during the current war,
Egypt has kept the Rafah crossing closed, except to evacuate wounded
Palestinians and to allow the importation of food and medicines.

In fact, opening the Rafah crossing is a matter of considerable debate
within Egypt itself. Many Egyptians are sympathetic with the plight
of the Palestinian people living in Gaza, and would like to see their
difficulties alleviated. Other Egyptians note that Hamas is an
offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, which is considered a
terrorist organization in Egypt, and fear that opening the Rafah
crossing would give a boost to the Muslim Brotherhood. According
to one Egyptian columnist:

<QUOTE>"As far as Hamas is concerned, opening the crossing –
as a trade and economic route and not just for humanitarian
purposes – is the only way to fundamentally change the existing
situation. It is the last chance to ensure Hamas's control of the
Strip. This is evident from the fact that agreeing to open the
crossing is the only thing that could ensure an immediate end to
all military action, even though opening it for commercial reasons
has nothing to do with the struggle against Israel or the
liberation of occupied lands in the [Gaza] Strip. This is a move
related to something far more important as far as [Hamas] is
concerned: its continued control over 'the liberated Gaza
emirate'!

Opening the crossing for commercial purposes does not align with
Egypt's interests and strongly undermines its policy and national
security needs, especially in the long term. Operating the
crossing with Hamas on the other side means a full recognition of
its rule in Gaza. This is Hamas's ultimate goal. If Egypt agrees
to it, then it essentially agrees to a new country on its border –
a country of 1.7 million people who suffer unemployment and are
rife with ideas of jihad and takfir; a country ruled by an armed
movement with regional alliances and political goals that totally
contradict the basic foundations of Egyptian security. These
foundations are based on respecting the peace agreement with
Israel and spurring it to agree to a solution for its conflict
with the Palestinians via peaceful negotiations, and in accordance
with the principle of land for peace and the Two State
Solution."<END QUOTE>

Those dreamers who fantasize that this ceasefire arrangement will last
more than a couple of hours or a couple of days are hoping that some
deal can be made where the Rafah crossing is opened and is guarded by
Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah. Memri and
Guardian (London-7/17)

****
**** Report: Hamas planned massive attack through tunnels on Israeli citizens
****

There are unconfirmed reports that Hamas was planning a massive
assault on civilians in southern Israel on Rosh Hashanah in late
September. The plan was that 200 Hamas fighters would pour through
the dozens of tunnels that Hamas has dug under the border between Gaza
and Israel, and attack numerous Israeli communities, killing and
kidnapping as many civilians as possible. According to the reports,
they would have IDF (Israeli Defense Force) uniforms, causing further
confusion. It's possible that Hezbollah might have joined in. The
current unplanned war with Hamas inadvertently thwarted these plans,
allowing the destruction of the tunnels, which made such an attack a
possibility. Jewish Press


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, John Kerry, Ban Ki-moon, Israel, Gaza,
Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah,
Egypt, Rafah border crossing, Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 2-Aug-14 World View -- Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Africans launch aid program as alarm increases over Ebola
• Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction
• Mainstream analysts suddenly realize that this time it's different
• Tunisia closes border to foreigners fleeing Libya

****
**** Africans launch aid program as alarm increases over Ebola
****


Health workers wearing suits to protect themselves from Ebola (EPA)

Countries are closing borders in western Africa to try to stop the
spread of the worst epidemic of the Ebola virus in history. The
U.S. Peace Corps and other aid groups are evacuating their personnel.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is launching a $100 million
response plan, and the United States is providing material and
technical support to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. WHO chief
Margaret Chan told a meeting of presidents of western African
countries, "The demands created by Ebola in West Africa outstrip your
capacities to respond." Reuters

****
**** Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction
****

In yesterday's World View,
I wrote
that it didn't appear that Hamas had agreed that it was OK for Israel
to continue destroying tunnels during the ceasefire, since it wasn't
mentioned in the ceasefire announcement. And yes, that's exactly what
happened. Apparently the negotiating geniuses John Kerry and Ban
Ki-moon didn't bother to get agreement on this point, and left Israel
to assume that they could continue destroying tunnels, and left Hamas
to to assume that they couldn't.

Anyway, the ceasefire has been a disaster. Israel's army kept
destroying tunnels. Suicide bombers popped out of one hidden tunnels,
and killed two soldiers. Then, a team popped out of another tunnel,
grabbed an Israeli soldier, Hadar Goldin, and dragged him back into
the tunnel. The ceasefire ended in 90 minutes.

A kidnapped soldier is Israel's worst nightmare. Reports indicate
that the army plans to "flatten" the entire area where the soldier
might be held, even if it risks the soldier's life. In fact, Hamas is
denying that it abducted anyone, and suggests that the soldier is
dead, which is what some Israelis would prefer to an abduction.

So it's being called a "game-changer," with good reason. First, any
kind of negotiations are now impossible, since Hamas would use the
kidnapped soldier as a bargaining chip, which would be intolerable to
Israel. Second, the already growing nationalism of Israel's (Jewish)
population is soaring again, and the segment of the population that
wants to see Israel's army crush Hamas is also growing. Third, this
is an enormous psychological and political victory for Hamas, which
Palestinians are celebrating, and leads many Palestinians to believe
that Hamas has the upper hand and will win the war.

I wrote yesterday that the Palestinians and the Israelis agree on one
thing: No return to the status quo ante. That was true
yesterday, and even more true today. BBC

****
**** Mainstream analysts suddenly realize that this time it's different
****

For the last few weeks I've been reading analyst reports predicting a
ceasefire within a few days, just as there was in the 2008-9 and 2012
Gaza wars. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the
difference between those wars and the current one is that the younger
generations in both Gaza and Israel are less willing to compromise.
It's been 66 years since the genocidal 1948 war between Arabs and Jews
that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel, so there are almost no survivors left who remember
the horrors of the 1948 war. On a purely statistical basis, most new
crisis wars begin about 58 years after the end of the previous crisis
war, and each additional year makes a new crisis war more likely. 66
years is a statistically high interval.

Mainstream analysts are pointing to several significant reasons why
"this time it's different." One of the main ones is that this is no
longer a war between Israel and Hamas. Instead it's a proxy war
that's split the nations of the Mideast down the middle. Turkey,
Qatar, Iran and Hezbollah are solid supporters of Hamas, while Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority are supporters of
Israel. In the past, Egypt served as a mediator that both sides
trusted, but no such mediator exists today.

As I've written many times in the last decade, Arabs and Jews are
headed for a new genocidal crisis war, refighting the 1948 war, with a
result that may not be favorable to Israel.
It might spiral out of the current war, or it might happen
in one year, two years or three years. At this moment, it's beginning
to look more and more like the time is now. CNN and PRI

****
**** Tunisia closes border to foreigners fleeing Libya
****

As the civil war violence in Tripoli, Libya, continues, thousands of
foreign nationals living in and around Tripoli are trying to escape
through Tunisia. But Tunisia has now closed the border, following an
attempt to storm the border by "a massive number of people of
different nationalities," according to Tunisian authorities, who said
that there were "suspicious elements," including a large number of
Egyptians without visas. In an attempt to restore order at one border
crossing, Tunisian border guards fired into the air. Libyan guards on
the other side of the border, thinking the Tunisians were firing at
them, shot back, wounding the Tunisian head of security. Libya Herald and Khaleej Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO,
Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Margaret Chan,
Israel, Gaza, Hadar Goldin, Hamas,
Turkey, Qatar, Iran, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Egypt, Palestinian Authority, Tunisia, Libya

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*** 3-Aug-14 World View -- Congress reacts to photos of Assad's torture victims in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Congress reacts to photos of Assad's torture victims in Syria
• Israel confirms the death of the abducted soldier

****
**** Congress reacts to photos of Assad's torture victims in Syria
****


Emaciated man showing wounds from repeated beatings by rod-like object. There are 55,000 photos like this, showing 11,000 corpses

The House Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday viewed a presentation
by a defecting forensic photographer from regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. This was the same forensic photographer, nicknamed
"Caesar," that we wrote about in January ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria"
). Wearing
dark glasses and a hood to hide his identity, he told Congress what he
had seen in Damascus. He described maimed bodies, people with eyes
gouged out and skeletal remains, a litany of horrors that defy the
imagination -- backed up by 55,000 photos that he had smuggled out
over a two year period. They were similar to the images found in Nazi
death camps after World War II, and show that al-Assad is guilty of
war crimes and crimes against humanity. The validity of the photos
was verified by three top war crimes prosecutors. And this was only
the tip of the iceberg, as these 55,000 photos came from just one
location out of many locations where this torture took place. This
one photographer photographed almost 20 bodies every day, suggesting
that there was "torture for pleasure" on a massive scale.

The al-Assad regime has used sarin gas on its own population, with
impunity. The regime has continued to use chemical weapons. Regime
helicopters drop huge barrel bombs onto civilian neighborhoods. The
barrel bombs may contain explosives, screws, nails and other shrapnel,
plus canisters of chlorine and ammonia. When chlorine is inhaled, it
reacts with the moisture in the lungs, turning into hydrochloric acid
that literally burns the target to death from the inside out.

Al-Assad is supported by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who is a
war criminal for providing unlimited supplies of heavy weapons to
al-Assad to continue his genocide. Al Monitor and House Foreign Affairs Committee and Report on validity of Assad torture photos

****
**** Israel confirms the death of the abducted soldier
****

Although the death of the abducted soldier, Hadar Goldin, is a tragedy
for his fiancée and his family, it's a big relief to Israel's army in
the sense that Hamas can no longer use Goldin for either political or
military leverage. According to Israel's army, Goldin was abducted on
Friday during operations to destroy an underground tunnel that ran
under the border from Gaza to Israel, and extended a full two
kilometers into Israel's territory. On the Gaza side, the tunnel
began in an open area surrounded by homes. Jerusalem Post and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Israel, Hadar Goldin, Gaza

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*** 4-Aug-14 World View -- Iran trapped in a quagmire supporting both Syria and Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS captures Iraq's biggest hydroelectric dam, driving back Kurds
• Iran trapped in a quagmire supporting both Syria and Iraq
• Israel faces harsh international criticism over shelling of UN shelter

****
**** ISIS captures Iraq's biggest hydroelectric dam, driving back Kurds
****


Mosul hydroelectric dam

Terrorists with the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS)
defeated Kurdish Peshmerga (militia) forces and took control of Iraq's
biggest hydroelectric dam, located near Mosul. This gives ISIS
control of the water supply and electricity of much of northern Iraq,
and also the ability to flood major cities, threatening Baghdad.
Earlier, ISIS militants successful.y captured an oil field and nearby
villages, after fighting with Kurdish forces who had control of the
area. Many analysts continue to remain skeptical of ISIS's long-term
ability to control the huge swath of land it's captured in a series of
lightning raids, but so far ISIS has not only held on to its gains,
but continues to increase them. Al Arabiya and CNN

****
**** Iran trapped in a quagmire supporting both Syria and Iraq
****

During the last three years, Iran has invested a significant portion
of its military resources supporting the regime of president Bashar
al-Assad of Syria, supplying Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC),
weapons and money both to Syria's regime and to Hezbollah militia from
Lebanon who are supporting al-Assad in Syria. However, Iran has been
caught by surprise by a major threat on its own doorstep, the rapid
rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). ISIS is a
Sunni Muslim terrorist organization with an objective of exterminating
all Shia Muslims. ISIS is threatening Iran's allies in Iraq, as well
as significant Shia religious sites in Iraq that Iran is committed to
defending. Iran is known to be supplying weapons to Iraq's
government. Iran has denied sending troops into Iraq, but some recent
funerals of IRGC fighters killed in Iraq indicates the presence of at
least a small number of Iranian troops. In addition, some Hezbollah
forces that had been fighting in Syria, as well as Iraqi forces that
had been defending al-Assad in Syria, have been redeployed to Iraq.
Some reports indicate that ISIS in Syria has begun to engage the Syria
army much more forcefully than in the past.

The result is that Iran finds that it's fallen deep into a quagmire (a
term that Americans will recall from past wars). What was a
relatively breezy level of military support for al-Assad in Syria has
now turned into a two-front war facing an enemy that's threatening
Syria's Alawite/Shia regime, Iraq's Shia government, and Iran itself.
Reuters and Al Arabiya

****
**** Israel faces harsh international criticism over shelling of UN shelter
****

On Sunday, Israel faced international criticism, including harsh
criticism from the United States and United Nations, after an Israeli
shell killed ten Palestinians just outside a United Nations school
sheltering 3000 people who had fled there from earlier violence.
United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon expressed "shock and
disbelief" that this had happened three times in the last week, and
said:

<QUOTE>"The Israel Defense Forces have been repeatedly
informed of the location of these sites. This attack, along with
other breaches of international law, must be swiftly investigated
and those responsible held accountable. It is a moral outrage and
a criminal act."<END QUOTE>

U.S. State Dept. spokesman Jen Psaki said, "The United States is
appalled by today’s disgraceful shelling outside an UNRWA school in
Rafah sheltering some 3,000 displaced persons, in which ten more
Palestinian civilians were tragically killed."

Israel says that it's investigating what happened.
Jewish Telegraphic Agency and Al Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Mosul dam,
Baghdad, Kurds, Peshmerga,
Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Israel, Gaza, Ban Ki-moon, United Nations

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*** 5-Aug-14 World View -- Syria war spills into Lebanon, as ISIS attacks town of Arsal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel and Hamas agree to a 3-day Gaza humanitarian ceasefire
• Syria war spills into Lebanon, as ISIS attacks town of Arsal
• China reasserts its sovereignty over the South China Sea

****
**** Israel and Hamas agree to a 3-day Gaza humanitarian ceasefire
****

Both Israel and Hamas have agreed to begin a 3-day humanitarian
ceasefire to begin on Tuesday morning at 8 am local time. However,
expectations are extremely low, because there have been several
attempts at ceasefire in the past, and they all failed fairly quickly.
The ceasefire proposal was put forth by Egypt, and it's apparently
identical to the ceasefire proposal that Egypt proposed three weeks
ago.

An Israeli spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"Israel will cease all military operations against
terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip. Israel will honor the
cease-fire and will be watching to see if Hamas does
to."<END QUOTE>

A Palestinian spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"It's clear now that the interest of all parties is to
have a cease-fire. It's going to be tough negotiations because
Israel has demands, too."<END QUOTE>

As I've written several times in the last weeks, Israel and Hamas
agree on little except one thing: Neither wants to return to the
status quo ante. This means that Israel will not agree to a
permanent ceasefire unless Hamas and other Gaza factions are
demilitarized, and Hamas will not agree to a ceasefire unless the
"siege" is ended, meaning that people and goods can flow freely in and
out of Gaza. USA Today

****
**** Syria war spills into Lebanon, as ISIS attacks town of Arsal
****

Militias from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS),
which have gained control of large swaths of Syria and Iraq, joined
with some militias from al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra to attempt to
take control of Lebanon by attacking the town of Arsal in northern
Lebanon. Thousands of families have been forced to flee from their
homes, as the battle raged between the ISIS militants and the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF). ISIS terrorists had been hiding out in the
mountains surrounding Arsal after combined forces of the Syrian regime
and Hezbollah drove them from border villages in Syria. Reports
indicate that ISIS is preparing a military strategy to take over the
region by repeating its successes in Iraq, where in the past few days
it had scored a major victory by capturing Iraq's biggest hydroelectric dam.

Lebanon's population is about 40% Christian, 27% Sunni Muslim and 27%
Shia Muslim, and Lebanon itself has been split along religious lines
whether to support the Alawite/Shia regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad or his Sunni enemies. In the past, these religious
differences have split the army, whose soldiers are drawn from the
entire population, but the ISIS invasion of northern Lebanon appears
to have united the army, at least for the time being, to join with
Hezbollah to fight the invaders. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Al Monitor and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** China reasserts its sovereignty over the South China Sea
****

China is aggressively asserting claims to the entire South China Sea,
including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China is building a
network of airstrips and military garrisons in the South China Sea in
clear violation of international law, and refuses to participate in
any United Nations mediation efforts. The South China Sea is believed
to contain big oil and gas deposits, and rich fishing grounds. China
has been using a "salami-slicing" technique of annexing one portion
after another.

The Philippines is proposing a freeze on activity in the South China
Sea, in order to prevent a dispute that might lead to a military
confrontation. However, a high government official in Beijing has
rejected the proposal, saying:

<QUOTE>"The Spratly Islands are China's intrinsic territory,
and what China does or doesn't do is up to the Chinese
government. Nobody can change the government's position. ...

Why is it that when other countries wantonly build airports,
nobody says a word? But China has only this year started small and
necessary construction, to raise living conditions on the islands
- and so many people raise doubts."<END QUOTE>

I guess the answer to this question is that when other countries
wantonly build airports, they do so on their own territory, rather
than on someone else's territory. Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hamas, Gaza, Egypt,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Lebanon, Arsal, Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic Front
Hezbollah, Iraq,
China, South China Sea, Philippines

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*** 6-Aug-14 World View -- Cyclic anti-Semitism surges in Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Anti-Semitic mobs surface in European countries
• The cyclic resurgence of anti-Semitism
• The Jews and the Spanish Inquisition

****
**** Anti-Semitic mobs surface in European countries
****


Number of anti-Semitic attacks since the 1980s (Kantor Center, Tel-Aviv University)

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has been scathing in his
recent criticism of Israel, but at the same time he's taken note
recent spike in anti-Semitic incidents, especially in Europe.
According to a statement from Ban:

<QUOTE>"[Ban] deplores the recent upsurge in anti-Semitic
attacks, particularly in Europe, in connection with protests
concerning the escalation of violence in Gaza.

The Secretary-General emphasizes that the conflict in the Middle
East must not constitute a pretext for prejudice that could affect
social peace and harmony anywhere."<END QUOTE>

In Paris, a pro-Palestinian protest turned ugly when several Jewish
shops were burned, and demonstrators chanted, "Death to Jews" and "Gas
the Jews" and "Hitler was right!" 1930s attitudes are returning in
Germany. An analysis of anti-Jew hate mail in Germany found that most
of it originated with "well-educated Germans, including university
professors." In Europe, violent mobs are attacking synagogues,
painting swastikas on Jewish buildings, and chanting anti-Jewish
slogans is becoming increasingly common. Occasionally, an activist
will make a distinction between being anti-Israeli and anti-Jewish,
but there's little doubt that many of the mobs today are anti-Jewish.

The figures show that there was a big spike in anti-Semitism
during the 2009 war between Israel and Gaza, and a new spike
today with the Gaza war. But prior to the 1990s, there were
relatively few anti-Semitic attacks, but the number has been
growing steadily since then, and accelerated after the year
2000.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is no surprise
at all. The people in the Silent Generation, who grew up during World
War II, were in charge through the 1980s. The Boomers, who grew up
after the war, starting taking charge in the 1990s, and Generation-X
rose to leadership positions in the 2000s. The Silents well remember
the lessons of World War II, and the incredible horrors that followed
from the Holocaust. But the Silents are almost gone now, and the
Boomers and Gen-Xers are far removed from WW II, knowing little about
it except that their grandfathers went off to war somewhere in Europe
or Asia. Vox.com and Israel National News and Globe and Mail

****
**** The cyclic resurgence of anti-Semitism
****

Much anti-Semitic material appears in Spanish newspapers such as El
Mundo, and I'd like to quote an anti-Semitic rant called "The Chosen
Ones?" by a Antonio Gala, a Spanish novelist:

<QUOTE>"The Hebrew people, tested since antiquity by ups and
downs and the intimate dealings with their God, could have done
much good for humanity: due to their prudence, their wisdom and
endurance, their apparent religious fidelity and their proven
administration of money.

What is happening is that suddenly humanity is sick and tired of
them: a phenomenon that has been repeated throughout their
history, as if they were not made to coexist with others.

This is how it is and will remain, as it always has been. No
matter what the Jews call their civil or military leaders, they
end up creating problems for everyone: it is ancient history. Now
you must suffer their abuses in Gaza, and review it all with an
apparent injustice. They are never clear."<END QUOTE>

There is, in fact, a grain of truth in this excerpt: Jews are the
targets of anti-Semitic attacks on a cyclic basis, and have been for
centuries.

There's a tendency to look for reasons why the Jews are unique in this
regard. Perhaps it's because the Jews always cluster together in the
same neighborhoods, even when they aren't forced into ghettos. Or
perhaps it's because the Jewish religion has been designed, over the
millennia, to be able to survive with no homeland, even though they've
had a homeland for a few brief decades since 1948. Or perhaps it's
because people consider them to be snooty for referring to themselves
as "The Chosen Ones," as if God cares about no one but them.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, they aren't
unique. The Holocaust was a unique event, to be sure, but that was
just one component of World War II. If you look at the years from
1914 to 1945, then you have Protestants, Catholics, and Orthodox
Christians slaughtering each other in the most brutal, bloody, and
horrific massacres possible, so Christians are by no means excused.
In fact, even the 1994 Rwanda genocide was Christian versus Christian.

Since the 1980s, it's been mostly the Muslims' turn at slaughter, and
it's been getting worse every year. Today you have bloody massacres
of Muslims killing each other in many countries, including Lebanon,
Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Yemen, Libya,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, China's Xinjiang province. The mutual genocide
is highly racist and secular, as Sunnis kill Shias, Shias kill Sunnis,
and Sunnis kill Sufis. The growing mutual slaughter of the Muslims is
clearly headed for a massive, bloody crisis that will be devastating
for everyone.

A few days ago, I was watching some of the commemorations being held
on the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I. I heard one
politician intone, "Thank God we've solved all the problems of the
world wars, and we understand what to do. Today, a war in Europe is
completely unthinkable, and we owe that to the lessons that we've
learned."

Well, this politician's slogan should be, "Don't know much about
history." War was completely unthinkable prior to World War I as
well. That was the time of "La Belle Époque," when everything was
beautiful. War was not only unthinkable, it was thought to be
impossible. In fact, many wars are unthinkable until they start, and
then they suddenly become "thinkable." (For more on why World War I
was unthinkable, see "The gathering storm in the Caucasus." from 2008.)

The growing anti-Semitism in Europe is more than just a simple social
phenomenon. It's a sign that the old WW II fault lines are splitting
open again. Another sign is the growing tensions in Ukraine, and the
tensions between Greece and Germany during the financial crisis, which
is far from over. Gatestone and El Mundo

****
**** The Jews and the Spanish Inquisition
****

I want to illustrate the cyclical nature of anti-Semitic attacks by
returning to a Generational Dynamics analysis I've written about
before, covering medieval Spain from the 1390s to 1492.

The 1390s civil war in Spain was marked by especially violent
anti-Jewish pogroms that were triggered by a serious financial crisis
for which the wealthy Jews were blamed. Almost every crisis war ends
with some sort of imposed compromise that unravels some 80 years
later, leading to the next crisis war.

The compromise that ended the 1390s civil war was an interesting one:
The Jews would convert to Catholicism, or else would be expelled.
During the next few decades, over half of the 200,000 Jews on the
peninsula formally converted to Catholicism.

Compromises of this sort only work for so long, but the failure of
this compromise was especially ironic. The Conversos, as the
converted Jews were called, were now officially Christian, bringing
them further wealth and status. A large part of the Castilian upper
class consisted of Jews and Conversos, naturally generating a great
deal of class jealousy among the lower classes. It's typical for
riots and demonstrations to occur during a generational Awakening era,
midway between two crisis wars, and that's what happened here. The
riots against the Conversos began in 1449, and became increasingly
worse as the old compromise began to unravel. Thus, an old fault line
between the Catholics and the Jews was replaced by a new fault line
between the old line Catholics and the Converso Catholics.

Those who remember America's most recent Awakening era in the 1960s
and 70s will remember the fiery rhetoric that demonstrators used in
the antiwar movement at that time. Johns Hopkins University professor
David Nirenberg found that the "anti-Converso movement" rhetoric of
1449 and beyond was just as heated: "The converts and their
descendants were now seen as insincere Christians, as clandestine
Jews, or even as hybrid monsters, neither Jew nor Christian. They had
converted merely to gain power over Christians. Their secret desire
was to degrade, even poison, Christian men and to have sex with
Christian women: daughters, wives, even nuns."

This is exactly what Generational Dynamics is all about. The
generation of kids who grew up during the 1390s pogroms became
risk-averse adults who were willing to look for compromises to avoid
new bloody violence. Thus, there were anti-Converso riots during the
1450s and after, but that risk averse generation that grew up in the
1390s were still around to contain the problem, and look for
compromises, to keep things from getting too far out of hand, despite
the heated rhetoric. When that generation died, no one was left to
look for compromises, and new pogroms began in the 1480s.

As the old compromise unraveled completely, the riots against the
Conversos got worse, and a common charge against the Conversos was
that they were "false Christians." The most common charge
against Conversos was that of "Judaizing," that is, of falsely
pretending conversion and secretly practicing Jewish rites.

This is what gave rise to the Spanish Inquisition. The idea was to
have an official body empowered to determine whether those who had
claimed to convert to Catholicism had really converted. As new
pogroms began in the 1470s and 1480s, the Inquisition was
particularly targeted to find the "Judaizers." At first, the
Inquisition was directed specifically at Conversos, but later was
extended to unconverted Jews. Thousands of Conversos and Jews were
executed under the Inquisition, and entire Jewish communities were
eliminated.

The new crisis war reached its climax in the year 1492, when three
different things happened that affected Spain for the next century:

• A final decree was issued, expelling all Jews who refused to
  convert. Hundreds of thousands of Jews were forced to leave the
  country.
• Christopher Columbus left Spain and discovered the New World.
• The Reconquista (Reconquest) of Spain from the Muslims was
  completed, with the expulsion of the Muslims from Grenada.

With regard to the last point, Muslims had crossed over to southern
Spain from Africa as early as the 700s, and had conquered almost all
of Spain. The Catholics had dreamed of reconquering Spain from the
Muslims for centuries. The Reconquest was finally completed in
1492.

To summarize: The great compromise that settled the Spanish pogroms of
the 1390s was that the Jews would convert to Catholicism. That
compromise worked fine for a while, then began to unravel, and
eventually became one of the issues in the next great crisis war.

The great compromise that settled the Holocaust of World War II was
the creation of the state of Israel, which was supposed to settle the
Jewish problem once and for all. That compromise worked fine for a
while, but in the decades that followed, it began to unravel. What
the next world war will do to Israel can't be predicted, but what can
be predicted is that Israel will be a major issue in that war.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Ban Ki-moon, France, Germany,
Silent Generation, Boomers, Generation-X, Spain,
Antonio Gala, Conversos, Inquisition, Reconquest

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*** 7-Aug-14 World View -- Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine, threatening war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS targets 40,000 Yazidis for extermination on a mountaintop
• Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine, threatening war
• Panic over Ebola grows as Nigeria declares state of emergency

****
**** ISIS targets 40,000 Yazidis for extermination on a mountaintop
****


An Iraqi Yazidi Family (Guardian)

Militias from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) have
vowed to exterminate Christians, Kurds and Shia Muslims, and have
taken action to do so. But now ISIS is particularly targeting 40,000
people of the ancient Yazidi sect who fled to the top of Mount Sinjar
to escape them, and are now trapped on the mountain, surrounded by
ISIS terrorists. Yazidis are ethnic Kurds who follow a monotheistic
religion dating back to 600 BC. Over time they have incorporated
aspects of Christianity, Islam, and Judaism into their beliefs. Much
of the faith remains shrouded in mystery, with outsiders not allowed
to convert and believers not willing to share details of their
rituals. The 40,000 on Mount Sinjar have no food and little water.
An international effort may be mounted to try to save the trapped
Yazidis, at least by airdropping food. CS Monitor and Guardian

****
**** Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine, threatening war
****

Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday that he's just
received information that the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine
is "higher than it was several days ago." This comes after several
days when Russia has been massing tens of thousands of troops on
Ukraine's eastern border.

Russia's armed forces have been helping the separatists all along,
providing weapons and special forces troops, and bombarding Ukrainian
army troops from within Russia.

Some reports indicate that the pro-Russian rebel militias in eastern
Ukraine are losing ground to the government forces, and may be close
to defeat. The suspicion is that Russian troops will invade to
prevent the defeat of the pro-Russian rebel militias, though this is
very high risk because it would essentially be a declaration of war
against Ukraine's government. Another possibility is that the Russian
troops are planning to invade in order to provide a corridor for the
pro-Russian militias to retreat to Russia. RFE/RL

****
**** Panic over Ebola grows as Nigeria declares state of emergency
****

Officials are declaring a state of emergency in Nigeria after five
more people were diagnosed with the Ebola virus, and one more person
died. A Liberian man who flew into Lagos last week died from Ebola
two days after arriving, and all of the additional cases are people
who had direct contact with that one man. Authorities are
rushing to obtain isolation tents in anticipation of more infections.

The Ebola virus is not airborne, but spreads only through contact with
the bodily fluids of an infected person, so panic over concern of a
worldwide epidemic is completely unwarranted.

But Lagos has 21 million people, and it's feared that the Ebola virus
could spread through contacts among health workers, family members,
and even prostitutes. Also, Nigeria and other west African countries
have a special problem that other countries don't have: Many Africans
believe that it's health workers from Western countries that have
brought Ebola to Africa, and are causing it to spread.

There is an experimental drug that has apparently helped two American
missionaries that contracted Ebola. There is very little of this drug
available, but there is a brewing political issue that some people are
blaming America for using this drug only with white Americans, not
with Africans. AP and ABC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mount Sinjar, Yazidis, Kurds,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Donald Tusk,
Ebola, Nigeria, Lagos

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 7-Aug-14 World View -- Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine, threatening war

...the same bullshit line from the same demonstrated, admitted liars as last time. It wasn't true then (or the time before then, or the time before then, etc, etc). Time bore that out.

But the liars are totally telling the truth this time.

----
Oh, and the troops 'on the Ukrainian border' are in Astrakhan. Look at a map (with scale). It'd be like shouting that US troops in Ogden, Utah were 'on the Canadian border'.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

...the same bullshit line from the same demonstrated, admitted liars as last time. It wasn't true then (or the time before then, or the time before then, etc, etc). Time bore that out.

But the liars are totally telling the truth this time.

----
Oh, and the troops 'on the Ukrainian border' are in Astrakhan. Look at a map (with scale). It'd be like shouting that US troops in Ogden, Utah were 'on the Canadian border'.

I guess this time the liars are Donald Tusk of Poland, Chuck Hagel of
the U.S., and some Nato officials.

In fact, apparently everyone in the world is a liar except you and
your sweet pal Vladimir Putin.

By the way, have you taken any vacations in that new Russian province,
Crimea? I hear the weather is beautiful. It's been a great place to
visit ever since Putin announced that Russia had absolutely no
intention whatsoever of annexing it.

P.S.: Shot down any airliners lately?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I guess this time the liars are Donald Tusk of Poland, Chuck Hagel of the U.S., and some Nato officials.

Polish and American politicians and NATO bigwigs are who it was last time, too. And the time before that, and so on.

In fact, apparently everyone in the world is a liar except you and your sweet pal Vladimir Putin.

Nah. He's a liar, too. In fact, anyone is a liar who says things that they know aren't true. You seem to have a hard time internalizing that.

I do note, by the way, the utter absence of fact among your various sneers and insults. Par for the course, I guess. There was no fact from you last time, or the time before that, and so on. I guess you can't give what you don't have.

Reasonable compromise: let the pro-Russian militias leave Ukraine... permanently. Give them safe passage and then try them in absentia so that if they ever return they can be sent to prison.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Polish and American politicians and NATO bigwigs are who it was last time, too. And the time before that, and so on.

Nah. He's a liar, too. In fact, anyone is a liar who says things that they know aren't true. You seem to have a hard time internalizing that.

I do note, by the way, the utter absence of fact among your various sneers and insults. Par for the course, I guess. There was no fact from you last time, or the time before that, and so on. I guess you can't give what you don't have.

And you post constant sneers and insults, calling anyone you don't
like a liar. I guess that's your definition of "facts."

Why don't you go beyond that and use the technique that politicians
use when they don't like what they're hearing: just call people
homophobes, racists, and misogynists. Don't stop at just "liar" -- it
cramps your sneer/insult style. Go for the big ones.

P.S.: No one is more critical of politicians than I am. But I still
consider American and Nato politicians more credible than Putin.

P.P.S.: If you're calling Putin a liar too, then I guess you're the
only person in the world who isn't a liar. You ought to get an award.
Maybe the Nobel Peace Prize (you and Obama).

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Reasonable compromise: let the pro-Russian militias leave Ukraine... permanently. Give them safe passage and then try them in absentia so that if they ever return they can be sent to prison.

They didn't want to originally, but that's exactly what they've been trying to do since the vote several months back. Ukraine won't let them leave. Hence the fighting.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

And you post constant sneers and insults, calling anyone you don't
like a liar. I guess that's your definition of "facts."

I take it you haven't looked at that map yet? That's one example of a fact (please note the absence of scare quotes). A person who makes claims -- like that there are Russian troops collecting "on the Ukrainian border" -- that run counter to facts -- like the one demonstrated by the map which shows the troop collections are over six hundred miles away from that very border -- is either ignorant or lying. It's an assumption, to be sure, but a safe one that political mouthpieces aren't quite so abjectly ignorant of such simply things as 'how to read a map'. So we are left to conclude that the person who made those counterfactual assertions is lying. Again. A person who repeatedly knowingly makes counterfactual claims is called, in the English language, a "liar". Words mean things.


If you have facts to counter the fact that I provided, or to at all support the positions you parrot, please feel free to submit them. You would be the first to do so.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

I take it you haven't looked at that map yet? That's one example of a fact (please note the absence of scare quotes). A person who makes claims -- like that there are Russian troops collecting "on the Ukrainian border" -- that run counter to facts -- like the one demonstrated by the map which shows the troop collections are over six hundred miles away from that very border -- is either ignorant or lying. It's an assumption, to be sure, but a safe one that political mouthpieces aren't quite so abjectly ignorant of such simply things as 'how to read a map'. So we are left to conclude that the person who made those counterfactual assertions is lying. Again. A person who repeatedly knowingly makes counterfactual claims is called, in the English language, a "liar". Words mean things.


If you have facts to counter the fact that I provided, or to at all support the positions you parrot, please feel free to submit them. You would be the first to do so.

Justin, your complaint isn't with me. I work at home as a software
engineer, and I have the BBC, Al-Jazeera, CNN, FNC, CNBC, Bloomberg on
all day as I'm working. And they've been constantly reporting that
Russia is massing 20,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, and
appears to be preparing for an invasion, although analysts said that
they didn't know whether an invasion was actually planned. The story
I wrote accurately reflects those reports. Not a single one of them
mentioned your claim about geography, and I don't claim to be a
military analyst, so I'm not capable of evaluating your claim. If you
have a complaint about all that, then you're complaining to the wrong
person. Write to the BBC or CNN or Al-Jazeera. But I'm just
reporting what they said. I'm sorry you disagree, but that's life.

At the end of my report, I referenced a media story. Here's
a quote:

NATO, Polish PM Warn Of Russian Intervention In Ukraine

...

Earlier on August 6, NATO said a Russian force buildup near the
Ukrainian border amounted to some 20,000 troops.

In a statement, NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said Moscow could use
the excuse of a humanitarian or peacekeeping mission to send them into
Ukraine.

Also on August 6, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he had
received information "in the last several hours" suggesting the threat
of direct Russian military intervention in Ukraine is "higher than it
was several days ago."

On August 4, Moscow announced what it said were military training
exercises in central and western Russia, including all areas where
Russia shares a border with Ukraine.

Those exercises include the mobilization of more than 100 warplanes
and attack helicopters.

"We're not going to guess what's on Russia's mind, but we can see what
Russia is doing on the ground -- and that is of great concern. Russia
has amassed around 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's eastern
border," NATO's Lungescu said.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../26516614.html

Justin, please direct further sneers and accusations to RFERL.
Thanks.

John, my complaint here is with you. Specifically, that you continue to post statements made by known liars -- and to do so uncritically. You're not a stenographer, so you don't get to weasel out of it with just a shocked, "I was just transcribing what he said!"

Originally Posted by Justin '77

John, my complaint here is with you. Specifically, that you continue to post statements made by known liars -- and to do so uncritically. You're not a stenographer, so you don't get to weasel out of it with just a shocked, "I was just transcribing what he said!"

I'm not just transcribing what others say uncritically. This story is
based on several mainstream news stories and probably a dozen
mainstream televised reports. I listen to and read everything, and I
do my own analysis, and reach a conclusion.

I would add that there's a big problem these days with Russian media.
I used to be able to reference Russia Today and sometimes even Ria
Novosti, but in the last few months they've become completely
uncritical mouthpieces for Putin, in the same category as Xinhua and
PressTv, and Putin is the biggest liar on the scene these days. So
there's no longer any mainstream Russian media I can really count on.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I'm not just transcribing what others say uncritically. This story is
based on several mainstream news stories and probably a dozen
mainstream televised reports. I listen to and read everything, and I
do my own analysis, and reach a conclusion.

Uh-huh.

And how does your conclusion fare when the facts go against it? Have you looked at that map yet? You know, Google doesn't work for Putin (as far as I know); nor does Rand-McNalley. Based on the utter lack of critical assessment since the last time you stenographed lies to us as if they were true, I'd hazard a fair guess as to how little impact fact will have on your further uncritical regurgitations.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Uh-huh.
And how does your conclusion fare when the facts go against it? Have
you looked at that map yet? You know, Google doesn't work for Putin
(as far as I know); nor does Rand-McNalley. Based on the utter lack
of critical assessment since the last time you stenographed
lies to us as if they were true, I'd hazard a fair guess as to how
little impact fact will have on your further uncritical
regurgitations.

I just heard a hedge fund guy on CNBC say that, in his opinion, the
probability of a Russian invasion has moved from 20-25% to 50-55%.
He's betting money on it.

I'm not going to go off on a wild goose chase for a few hours just
because you want me to. I'm actually trying to get some work done.

If you want me to look at your claim, then you'll have to do all the
work, not me. Specifically, you should do the following:

1. Get a screen shot of a map of the region.

2. Use a graphics editing tool to mark up the map to show where the
troops are, relative to the Ukraine border and Donetsk.

3. Write some text explaining why, with 20,000 troops, and 100
warplanes and attack helicopters, and probably many troop carriers,
the Russian army is too far away to invade. Frankly, I don't believe
you can do that, but I'll wait to see what you come up with.

4. Put the whole thing together and post it.

I'll take a look at it, but I'm not promising anything because frankly
I think it's a wild goose chase.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I just heard a hedge fund guy on CNBC say that, in his opinion, the
probability of a Russian invasion has moved from 20-25% to 50-55%.
He's betting money on it.

He's certainly feeding you a line that he is betting on it.

I'm not going to go off on a wild goose chase for a few hours just because you want me to.

Nice try, weasel. Google maps. Your ignorance is only a temporary defense; and that only if you make an effort to remedy it when it impacts what you are doing.



The lie you passed isn't that they are "close enough to invade". By that standard, troops in Denver are "close enough to invade" Mexico*. While theoretically true, it's not a meaningful statement. Troops from the continental US managed to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, after all. In any case, the lie you asserted was that the troops are "on Ukraine's eastern border". Under exactly no circumstance does a national border occupy a zone over 1000 miles wide, or extending 500 miles into one or the other country. Your statement is, flatly speaking, a lie.

Entertainingly enough, Russian troops are indeed undertaking fairly sizeable exercises on Russia's border. It's just that the border is with Kazakhstan (as anyone with even a glancing familiarity with geography would know from the name "Astrakhan" alone). Not Ukraine.

and once again, confronted with your false assertion, you double-down rather than even acknowledge the clear evidence that what you said simply is not true.

----
*or, for an example more immediately obvious from the posted map, that troops in Milan are "close enough to invade Poland".

Originally Posted by Justin '77

He's certainly feeding you a line that he is betting on it.


Nice try, weasel. Google maps. Your ignorance is only a temporary defense; and that only if you make an effort to remedy it when it impacts what you are doing.



The lie you passed isn't that they are "close enough to invade". By that standard, troops in Denver are "close enough to invade" Mexico*. While theoretically true, it's not a meaningful statement. Troops from the continental US managed to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, after all. In any case, the lie you asserted was that the troops are "on Ukraine's eastern border". Under exactly no circumstance does a national border occupy a zone over 1000 miles wide, or extending 500 miles into one or the other country. Your statement is, flatly speaking, a lie.

Entertainingly enough, Russian troops are indeed undertaking fairly sizeable exercises on Russia's border. It's just that the border is with Kazakhstan (as anyone with even a glancing familiarity with geography would know from the name "Astrakhan" alone). Not Ukraine.

and once again, confronted with your false assertion, you double-down rather than even acknowledge the clear evidence that what you said simply is not true.

----
*or, for an example more immediately obvious from the posted map, that troops in Milan are "close enough to invade Poland".

So you're saying that it will take 12 hours for the Russian troops to
reach Ukraine? So what? I know almost nothing about military
tactics, but even I know that you start an invasion with warplanes
bombing the enemy for two or three days, and then move the troops in.
12 hours is nothing. You really are completely full of crap.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

So you're saying that it will take 12 hours for the Russian troops to
reach Ukraine? So what? I know almost nothing about military
tactics, but even I know that you start an invasion with warplanes
bombing the enemy for two or three days, and then move the troops in.
12 hours is nothing.

Pretending like you said something you didn't only works when there's no written record to contradict you. Pretending like there's no written record, on the other hand, never works at all.

Your lie was that troops are massing on the Ukrainian border. Twisting and weaseling, you ended up leaving me to not only expose your lie, but to generate and spoon-feed to you the proof that it was a lie. And there, I suppose, you are electing to let it stand. I suppose that's fine and all from the standpoint of truth winning out over lies. But I can't imagine it's particularly satisfying to you to always be on the second of those sides. Maybe you should consider treating more critically the assertions made by people whose words so consistently turn out to have been false? It's gotta help your odds at least a bit.