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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 65







Post#1601 at 08-07-2014 05:34 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Pretending like you said something you didn't only works when there's no written record to contradict you. Pretending like there's no written record, on the other hand, never works at all.

Your lie was that troops are massing on the Ukrainian border. Twisting and weaseling, you ended up leaving me to not only expose your lie, but to generate and spoon-feed to you the proof that it was a lie. And there, I suppose, you are electing to let it stand. I suppose that's fine and all from the standpoint of truth winning out over lies. But I can't imagine it's particularly satisfying to you to always be on the second of those sides. Maybe you should consider treating more critically the assertions made by people whose words so consistently turn out to have been false? It's gotta help your odds at least a bit.
Keeping the troops 12 hours away seems like the perfect distance to
me. Any closer and they could be targeted by enemy artillery, but
they're still close enough for lightning strikes right behind the
warplanes.







Post#1602 at 08-07-2014 10:51 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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8-Aug-14 World View -- U.S. military returns to Iraq, three years after withdrawing

*** 8-Aug-14 World View -- U.S. military returns to Iraq, almost three years after withdrawing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • U.S. military returns to Iraq, almost three years after withdrawing
  • Concerns grow over possible Russian invasion of Ukraine
  • Russia imposes its own sanctions, to counter Western sanctions


****
**** U.S. military returns to Iraq, almost three years after withdrawing
****



Iraqi Christians who fled the city of Qaraqosh and are now sitting in Saint Joseph Church in Erbil (BBC)

President Obama on Thursday evening announced "targeted air strikes"
in Iraq, to protect American soldiers in Iraq, and to prevent militias
from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) from
committing genocide on 140,000 Christians and Yazidis in Iraq.

Almost three years ago, President Obama pulled all troops out of Iraq,
saying, "We're leaving behind a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant
Iraq." However, with inaction by the United States in the three years
since the war in Syria began, we've seen the genocidal actions Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad, aided by an unlimited supply of heavy
weapons from Russia, attempt to exterminate all Sunnis in Syria,
turning Syria into a "jihadist magnet," drawing jihadists and jihadist
trainees from around the world, including America and Europe. In the
last few months, the jihadist opposition to al-Assad has metastasized
into ISIS, a powerful jihadist army that's now in control of large
swaths not only of Syria, but also of Iraq.

President Obama came into office with no foreign policy doctrine
except to do the opposite of anything the President George Bush did,
claiming that an "apology tour" and diplomacy would bring peace to the
world. Obama has learned many, many harsh lessons since then, and the
complete collapse of his Iraq policy, at the same time that his
Afghanistan policy is threatened with collapse, is probably the most
bitter lesson so far, with more to come.

President Obama has been practically paralyzed with fear of adverse
consequences of military actions, but is now forced against his will
to send the military back into Iraq because of the crisis is rapidly
worsening in a way that he said was impossible when the US troops were
withdrawn.

Major components of the worsening crisis are as follows:

  • ISIS is threatening Erbil (Irbil), the capital of the Kurdish
    region, which was considered completely safe until just a few days
    ago. The administration says that it's going to be "aggressive" in
    defending the Kurds with air strikes.
  • The highest priority will be protecting 40 U.S. soldiers in Erbil,
    who are serving as advisors to the Kurds. Saving them will be
    accomplished either by evacuating them or by protecting them with air
    strikes. There are also several hundred other American soldiers in
    Iraq around Baghdad serving as advisors, but they are not currently in
    danger.
  • Some 100,000 Christians, a quarter of all of Iraq's Christians,
    were driven out of the town of Qaraqosh by ISIS militias, leaving
    Qaraqosh practically empty. Many had formerly fled to Qaraqosh when
    ISIS attacked their former homes in Mosul. These Christians are
    facing their own humanitarian disaster. They're fleeing in the
    direction of Erbil, where many are hiding out in Saint Joseph's
    Church.
  • As we reported yesterday
    ,
    there are 40,000 people of the ancient Yazidi sect trapped on top of
    Mount Sinjar, without food or water, and imminently threatened by
    ISIS. Obama announced that humanitarian airdrops of food and water
    have already begun to Mount Sinjar, and that airstrikes will be used
    to protect the Yazidis.
  • ISIS claims to be in control of the Mosul dam, the country's
    biggest dam. This gives ISIS several choices -- they can control
    electric power to much of the country, they can control the water
    supply, or they could use it as a "weapon of mass destruction" by
    blowing it and let the water drown numerous villages.
  • ISIS completely outguns the Iraqi army, because ISIS has captured
    much of the army's large stores of American-supplied armored vehicles
    and heavy weapons. According to reports, the Iraq army has only what
    it inherited from the Sadaam Hussein regime.
  • Less imminently, concerns are growing for a potential ISIS attack
    on the city of Baghdad. Already, 150,000 Iraqis have been displaced
    by ISIS, and the worst may yet be to come.


The Obama administration says that there will be no "boots on the
ground," a statement that ignored the hundreds of advisors that are
already there. Analysts are mixed as to whether it will be necessary
to introduce combat troops in the future. Washington Post and BBC

****
**** Concerns grow over possible Russian invasion of Ukraine
****


On Thursday, Nato secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen visited
Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and promised "unwavering" support for
"the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine." This claim is
not particularly credible, since Russia has already annexed Ukraine's
peninsula of Crimea, and the annexation is rarely even mentioned.

Rasmussen blamed Russia for continuing to destabilize Ukraine, having
"massed large forces on the Ukrainian border ... to use any pretext to
intervene any further." According to Rasmussen:

<QUOTE>"So I call on Russia to step back from the brink. Step
back from the border. Do not use peacekeeping as an excuse for
war-making. I urge Russia to follow the genuine path to peace. To
stop its support for separatists. To pull pack its troops from
Ukraine's border. And to engage in a sincere dialogue for a
peaceful solution."<END QUOTE>

Nato's support for Ukraine is strong, and to prove it, Nato announced
that it will hold a meeting next month. I assume that if Russia
invades Ukraine, then Nato will retaliate by holding further meetings.
Nato News

****
**** Russia imposes its own sanctions, to counter Western sanctions
****


Russia retaliated against western sanctions with a sweeping ban on
food imports -- meat and poultry, seafood, milk and dairy products
including cheese, fruit, vegetables and vegetable oil-based products
-- from countries that have imposed their own sanctions on Russia for
the annexation of Crimea, including the U.S., European Union,
Australia and Norway. However, it may be that Russia's sanctions will
punish Russia more than the West. Russia imports 40% of the food it
consumes. It's likely that Russia does not have the know-how or
infrastructure to keep and distribute fruit and vegetables during the
long winter, while the Russian fish and sea food industry as well as
the Russian dairy industry are too underdeveloped to effectively take
over the market freed from Western producers. However, Russia hopes
to cover the emerging gap by importing more from Brazil, Israel,
Turkey, China and other Asian nations. Jamestown and LA Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mount Sinjar, Yazidis, Kurds,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Qaraqosh, Christians, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Ukraine, Nato, Anders Fogh Rasmussen

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Post#1603 at 08-08-2014 10:25 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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9-Aug-14 World View -- Hamas is at war with Egypt more than Israel

*** 9-Aug-14 World View -- Hamas is at war with Egypt more than Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Hamas's war with Israel -- and with Egypt
  • Analysts express alarm at ISIS control of Mosul Dam
  • Can Obama's air strikes save the Kurdish Peshmerga?
  • Obama is dragged kicking and screaming back towards the Truman Doctrine


****
**** Hamas's war with Israel -- and with Egypt
****



Daniel Nisman, Levantine Group

The ceasefire in Israel's war with Hamas ended at 8 am local time on
Friday morning, and Hamas launched a barrage of rockets at targets in
Israel a short time later. Israel walked out of the peace talks in
Egypt, and re-launched its air attacks on Hamas targets in Gaza. So
the Gaza war is back in full force.

Daniel Nisman, the president of Levantine Group, a Mideast analyst
group, gave a very interesting interview on al-Jazeera on Friday
morning. Here are some excerpts (my transcription).

<QUOTE>"The [peace] talks are ... complicated. First, Israel
is not talking to Hamas. Israel talks to Egypt, and Egypt talks
to Hamas. [It] looks like the rocket fire that we saw this
morning promptly after the ceasefire ended was actually sort of
Hamas's negotiating tactics, to leverage their position. ...

Egypt's been in an open conflict with the regional Muslim
Brotherhood movement, which extends also to Turkey and to Qatar.
So if you look at Hamas, Hamas is basically the only Muslim
Brotherhood branch with its own military, so you can see for
yourself how Egypt would relate to that.

There's no question in my mind -- and I don't think any one in
Israel -- that as soon as the current government came to power [in
Egypt], they sought to weaken Hamas using any means necessary, and
even if that means have Israel do its doing work while absorbing
the international criticism.

I would say that it was really Egypt that pushed Hamas into a
corner by shutting off the [Rafah border crossing] and destroying
all those tunnels [under the fence between Gaza and Egypt]. That
... put Hamas into a corner with no choice but to fight its way
out, and that's what it's doing right now in the current conflict.
This conflict is actually as much of a fight between Hamas and
Egypt, as it is a fight between Hamas and Israel.

Which is why you see that some of these negotiations in Cairo
broke down even before Israel could even step in to the picture.
There's still a lot of bad blood between the Egyptian side and
Hamas side. There's a lot of insulting going on, and it's clear
to many that Egypt will not let this conflict finish with Hamas in
power. Egypt wants to finish this conflict with the Palestinian
Authority sitting across from the Rafah border. They've got a
very, very big Suez Canal expansion project, and they don't want
Hamas to have any demands like expanding a seaport, building a
seaport which could allow weapons to flow from Gaza into the Sinai
peninsula.

So this policy towards weakening Hamas I think has been a big
reason why the conflict has persisted as long as it has, because
Egypt and Israel -- Egypt even more than Israel -- has an interest
in weakening Hamas, seeing it as an extension of its own Muslim
Brotherhood adversary."<END QUOTE>

Hamas has been increasingly demanding a seaport where supplies
can flow in and out of Gaza, without being under control of
either Israel and Egypt, as the border crossings would be. And
once a seaport were open to international shipping, it would be
almost impossible to close it again. However, Nisman makes
the point that Egypt, even more than Israel, will prevent
any such seaport from being built.

****
**** Analysts express alarm at ISIS control of Mosul Dam
****


The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) apparently has
control of the Mosul dam, the largest dam in Iraq. This gives ISIS
control of much of Iraq's electrical power.

However, many analysts are beginning to describe the dam as a "weapon
of mass destruction." According to some reports, if ISIS blows the
dam, then Mosul will be flooded with water 20-30 meters deep. The
water will continue downstream, flooding many other villages. In
three days, it will reach Baghdad, and flood it with water 5 meters
deep. Millions of people would be killed.

There are other concerns as well, according to a 2007 report from the
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The Mosul dam is not built on solid
ground. It's built on porous material that requires constant
maintenance. If ISIS does not continue that maintenance, then the dam
will collapse anyway. However, that event would be at least six
months away, according to one analyst I heard. Gulf News and ABC News

****
**** Can Obama's air strikes save the Kurdish Peshmerga?
****


The Kurdish Peshmerga militias have a reputation for being fierce
fighters, but they've performed poorly against ISIS in the past few
weeks. Peter Galbraith, a Washington analyst, was interviewed on the
BBC on Friday, and gave four reasons why the Peshmerga have done
poorly:

  • The Kurds have a 650 mile border with ISIS. They need to
    defend the whole border, while ISIS can choose any point of
    attack.
  • The Peshmerga are simply outgunned by ISIS. ISIS has huge
    advanced weapons, thanks to capturing American weapons stores in
    Mosul. The Humvees have been particularly effective for ISIS.
  • When ISIS comes to an area, they terrify the population so they
    panic and flee, so the Peshmerga defends have to cope with an enemy
    that is attacking a panicked population.
  • Kurdish fighters want to win, but they don't want to die. ISIS
    fighters are not afraid to die, which gives them a big
    advantage.


Other analysts have said that the days of the fierce Peshmerga
fighters are over. All the fierce fighters from the 1990s are now in
politics or the oil business.

Reports indicate that the Obama administration has authorized
airstrikes to help the Peshmerga, but some analysts are saying that
won't be enough without at least supplying the Peshmerga with weapons.
Newsweek

****
**** Obama is dragged kicking and screaming back towards the Truman Doctrine
****


As I've written many times, President Obama has been the first
president since the end of World War II to repudiate the Truman
Doctrine. As I wrote in 2006,
President Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947 made America
"policeman of the world," because the cost of a small military action
was always better than a repeat of something as enormous as World War
II.

President Obama's policy, as I understand it, has always been no
military action at all if it can be avoided in any way. As problems
have mounted in the Mideast, Obama has been forced to revise his
doctrine. In recent weeks, I've heard analysts describe his doctrine
as permitting military action if two conditions are satisfied:

  • Something like genocide is threatened.
  • The military action must be essential for U.S. security.


This is already closer to the Truman Doctrine than Obama has been in
the past, but it's still not there. The NY City police force has to
fight crime every day all the time. A police action is taken if its
important to the entire city, not just important to the police force.

The Truman Doctrine is not limited to military actions that directly
benefit the United States. The criterion is whether it's important to
the world.

Of course, the two are sometimes hard to distinguish. Obama
supposedly rejected military action in 2011 to stop the genocide of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad because it was not essential for
American security. However, that failure may have led to the rise of
ISIS, which IS a threat to America's security.

On Thursday evening, Obama announced limited military action in Iraq,
which he justified as follows:

<QUOTE>"Iíve said before, the United States cannot and should
not intervene every time thereís a crisis in the world. So let me
be clear about why we must act, and act now. When we face a
situation like we do on that mountain -- with innocent people
facing the prospect of violence on a horrific scale, when we have
a mandate to help -- in this case, a request from the Iraqi
government -- and when we have the unique capabilities to help
avert a massacre, then I believe the United States of America
cannot turn a blind eye. We can act, carefully and responsibly,
to prevent a potential act of genocide. Thatís what weíre doing
on that mountain."<END QUOTE>

So there are three criteria:

  • Genocide is involved.
  • The Iraq government has asked us.
  • We have unique capabilities to help.


Once again, this isn't exactly the set of criteria that a NY City
police force would use.

Obama added the following in his speech:

<QUOTE>"I know that many of you are rightly concerned about
any American military action in Iraq, even limited strikes like
these. I understand that. I ran for this office in part to end
our war in Iraq and welcome our troops home, and thatís what weíve
done. As Commander-in-Chief, I will not allow the United States
to be dragged into fighting another war in Iraq. And so even as
we support Iraqis as they take the fight to these terrorists,
American combat troops will not be returning to fight in Iraq,
because thereís no American military solution to the larger crisis
in Iraq. The only lasting solution is reconciliation among Iraqi
communities and stronger Iraqi security forces."<END QUOTE>

So having stated three criteria for military action, Obama quickly
rushes to back away from them.

Analysts repeatedly describe ISIS as: extremely wealthy, extremely
well organized, and extremely well-armed -- because they've captured
huge troves of weapons including armored vehicles that can roll over
Iraqi army troops.

Obama continues to learn bitter lessons that have repeatedly shown
that his naÔve view of the world is wrong. His last paragraph
indicates that he still has little idea what's going on in the world,
and that he still has a lot to learn. Sooner or later, however,
events will force him (and us) to regret that he repudiated the Truman
Doctrine in the first place. White House


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hamas, Daniel Nisman, Egypt,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Mosul, Mosul Dam, US Army Corps of Engineers,
Kurds, Peshmerga, Peter Galbraith, Truman Doctrine

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Post#1604 at 08-08-2014 11:30 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Bit by bit the parameters of the Third World War are asserting themselves.







Post#1605 at 08-09-2014 10:01 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch

*** 10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Georgia / Armenia ethnic hatreds spiral after church incident
  • 'Salami slicing tactics' by Russia and China risk wider war
  • New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza


****
**** Georgia / Armenia ethnic hatreds spiral after church incident
****



Surb Etchmiadzin Armenian Church in Tbilisi, Georgia

Long-standing conflicts between Georgia and Armenia were inflamed two
weeks ago over a parking incident, when a Georgian woman's complaint
-- that her car was blocked by an Armenian clergyman's car -- turned
into an ethnically and racially charged clash involving some 50
people. The clash occurred at the Surb Etchmiadzin Armenian Church,
located in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. The Georgian Orthodox
Church and the Armenian Apostolic Church are among the most ancient in
the world, going back to the dawn of Christianity, and have played a
part in the formation of their respective nations, so it's not
surprising that the Churches easily become involved in ethnic hatreds.
The countries fought a major border war in 1918 in the aftermath of
World War I, and discords have been particularly severe since 1989,
when a Georgian cathedral in Tbilisi was built on land that the
Armenians claim was an Armenian cemetery. In the latest incident, an
investigation concluded that the parking incident was a purely
personal matter, and had not risen to the level of hate crime.
Asbarez (Armenia) and Jamestown

****
**** 'Salami slicing tactics' by Russia and China risk wider war
****


Both Russia and China have been practicing a "salami slicing strategy"
to annex territories belonging to other countries. Russia has already
annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and is threatening to annex
eastern Ukraine and Moldova's Transnistria region.

China has annexed several islands and shoals in the South China Sea
belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines, and is threatening to annex
other territories belonging to Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.

In each case, the aggressor nation is counting on the fact that the
annexation action is sufficiently small, that it can count on the
West's weakness to do nothing about it. In the long run, the purpose
of the strategy is annex larger and larger regions, based on the
assumption that the West will just look on helplessly.

This assumption, however, is based on a misreading of how democratic
politics interacts with security dynamics. Aggressors perceive --
correctly, in the short run -- that pluralism renders democracies
risk-averse. Citizens tend to be apathetic towards distant events
which appear to have little relevance to their lives. For democratic
leaders, the political costs of firm action thus tend to prevent firm
strategy. Initial successes in the salami slicing strategy encourage
aggressor leaders to confuse apathy among democratic publics with an
unwillingness to react to perceived security threats.

However, democratic public opinion can shift very quickly. Incorrect
assumptions and initial successes may lead an aggressor to walk
blindly into actions which, retrospectively, turn out to have crossed
a line that's too threatening for the democratic public to ignore.

The shooting down of Malaysia Airlines 17 (MH17) illustrates how
things can go wrong. The shootdown didn't lead to a wider war, but it
might have. The salami slicing tactics might, at any time, have an
unexpected consequence that spirals into full scale war. Lowy Interpreter

****
**** New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza
****


On the day before the beginning of last week's ceasefire in the Gaza
war, a team of reporters from New Delhi TV (NDTV) in Gaza noticed a
mysterious tent with a blue canopy that popped up just outside their
hotel window. They surmised that the three men around the tent were
constructing a rocket to be launched into Israel. They filmed the
entire activity, from setup to launch. The launch was in a heavily
populated area in Gaza city, and the activity put in danger the
reporters themselves, as well as anyone living in the area, from
Israeli missile retaliation. The reporters noted that there were
several open areas nearby, so putting the launch site into a heavily
populated area unnecessarily risked the lives of innocent
Palestinians. The reporters decided that the story was too important
not to air, even though they risked retaliation from Hamas. They also
received severe condemnation from other journalists and officials who
accused them of helping Israel. New Delhi TV and YouTube


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Georgia, Armenia, Tbilisi,
Georgian Orthodox Church, Armenian Apostolic Church,
Russia, China, Moldova, Transnistria, Crimea,
Vietnam, Philippines, MH17, Malaysia,
New Delhi, Gaza, NDTV, Israel

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Post#1606 at 08-10-2014 10:10 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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I wondered what the Russians think of ISIS -- people who can poke the US in its figurative eye? Apparently nothing to their liking.
I do not trust Russian media. Indian media seem more reliable. Here goes:

BAGHDAD: Iraqi government officials said on Sunday that Russian experts had arrived in Iraq to help the army get 12 new Russian warplanes into the fight against Sunni extremists.

The move was at least an implicit rebuke to the United States, where concerns in Congress about the political viability of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's government have stalled sales of advanced jets and helicopters to Iraq.

"In the coming three or four days the aircraft will be in service to support our forces in the fight" against the insurgents of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), said Gen Anwar Hama Ameen, the commander of the Iraqi air force, referring to five SU-25 aircraft that were flown into Iraq aboard Russian cargo planes Saturday night and two more expected later Sunday. Ameen said that Russian military experts also had arrived to help set up the planes but that they would stay only a short time.

...

This was the first report of Russian military aides in the country, although Ameen said they were experts, not advisers.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...w/37487071.cms

(I don't care whether Russian or American equipment defeat ISIS. Indeed, I will not care who supplies the rope for nooses around the necks of ISIS leaders in Iraq or an independent Kurdish Republic. But the first is no given and the latter almost certainly signals the definitive end of the Crisis).
Last edited by pbrower2a; 08-10-2014 at 03:52 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#1607 at 08-10-2014 01:56 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> I wondered what the Russians think of ISIS -- people who can poke
> the US in its figurative eye? Apparently not.

> I do not trust Russian media. Indian media seem more
> reliable. Here goes:

> http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...w/37487071.cms

> (I don't care whether Russian or American equipment defeat
> ISIS. Indeed, I will not care who supplies the rope for nooses
> around the necks of ISIS leaders in Iraq or an independent Kurdish
> Republic. But the first is no given and the latter almost
> certainly signals the definitive end of the Crisis).
That's a great story. It's very interesting that Russia is now
forced to provide weapons to Iraq.

There's a great deal of irony in this situation, and a tiny bit of
Schadenfreude. The reason that Syria became a jihadist magnet is that
Russia and Iran have poured weapons and troops into Syria to support
al-Assad's genocide against the Sunnis. Now ISIS has become so
powerful that it's an existential threat to Iran and a terrorist
threat to Russia. So Russia and Iran are definitely getting what they
deserve.

Meanwhile, the U.S., led by a president whose policy is "ask what Bush
would do and do the opposite," with a Secretary of State who is no
better than a clown, did nothing to stop the genocide in 2011, even
though I and others were saying that doing nothing would blow back on
all of us.

Today, there are thousands of American and European young men, with no
records and with clean passports, who have gone to Syria for jihadist
training, and many have undoubtedly joined ISIS, whose charter is to
strike Europe and America with terrorist acts.

And we're led by a president with no moral compass and no
comprehension or appreciation of American values, who is following
what might be called the "Vietnam strategy" for entering Iraq.

What I mean by that is that George Bush #1 took a firm decision, and
fought Iraq to extract it from Kuwait. Clinton took a firm decision,
and bombed the hell of Iraq to protect the Kurds and prevent
development weapons of mass destruction. George Bush #2 took a firm
decision, and invaded Iraq to get rid of Iran's weapons of mass
destruction.

Obama is so conflicted about preserving his imaginary legacy that he's
totally confused and has taken no firm decisions on Iraq. He's
ignored the Syria genocide. He flip-flopped on Syria's chemical
weapons red line. He's sent hundreds of soldiers into Iraq to act as
"advisors." He's moved seven aircraft carriers into the Persian Gulf.
He's now dropping food and water on trapped Yazidis, providing them
with their last meals before ISIS slaughters them. He's sent
warplanes to bomb ISIS's American-made Humvees. He's sent warplanes
to protect American soldiers in Erbil. He probably wakes up every
morning, looks in the mirror, and says, "What should I do today in
Iraq to make me look good?" So we're following the Vietnam strategy
of getting sucked in, one step at a time.

So Russia is now selling warplanes to Iraq. Maybe Russia's
psychopathic president Vladimir Putin, who's making a career out of
humiliating Obama and America, can bail us all out.







Post#1608 at 08-10-2014 03:24 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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The main problem that threatens world peace today Xenakis, is the notion of collective security that those of the wilsonian ideological tradition that you yourself advocate, the effect of wilsonianism is that nations no longer rely on themselves to build up a native capacity to defend themselves, they expect some other force to do it. The Iranians don't use their full power against ISIS, they expect the US or Russia to do it. With China and the Philippines, while China is the aggressor, the Philippines response has not been to build up its own military to over 1 million soldiers and develop a native arms industry (things that are well within the Philippines technological capacity) to defend its country. The Filipinos take none of these measures, because they expect the US to do it. The Japanese also have not built up their forces to their potential capacity to defend against potential aggressors, the JDSF while modern and heavily armed, is no where near the size that it could be if systematic arms development and deployment occurred, this is because they expect the US to do it for them. The US can remedy the situation by abandoning its stance against helping allied states develop WMD arsenals. Collective security is nonsense, because the aggressor will usually be more heavily armed that the little guy; "policemen" can't be everywhere at once. Every country should have a WMD arsenal, and a decent and well-equipped peacetime army with trained reserves. Another fundamental flaw is the notion dominant since Wilson brokered peace in 1919, that the execution of war, unless it is a part of a "police action" is considered an international crime. The world order before 1919 recognized the primacy of force, the balance of power and the balance of terror as the true movers of world history. We should return to such an order based on realist principles. Examples of international orders where this prevailed is ancient Greece from 550 BC to 320 BC, The romans throughout their history, china from 770 BC to about 100 BC, and again from 180 AD to about 650 ad and a lesser extent from 860 AD to 1280 AD. The middle east especially from 1050 ad to about 1400 ad, Europe from about 1300 AD to 1713 AD, and to a much lesser extent until 1919 AD.
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 08-10-2014 at 03:28 PM.







Post#1609 at 08-10-2014 04:14 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
> The main problem that threatens world peace today Xenakis, is the
> notion of collective security that those of the wilsonian
> ideological tradition that you yourself advocate, the effect of
> wilsonianism is that nations no longer rely on themselves to build
> up a native capacity to defend themselves, they expect some other
> force to do it. The Iranians don't use their full power against
> ISIS, they expect the US or Russia to do it. With China and the
> Philippines, while China is the aggressor, the Philippines
> response has not been to build up its own military to over 1
> million soldiers and develop a native arms industry (things that
> are well within the Philippines technological capacity) to defend
> its country. The Filipinos take none of these measures, because
> they expect the US to do it. The Japanese also have not built up
> their forces to their potential capacity to defend against
> potential aggressors, the JDSF while modern and heavily armed, is
> no where near the size that it could be if systematic arms
> development and deployment occurred, this is because they expect
> the US to do it for them. The US can remedy the situation by
> abandoning its stance against helping allied states develop WMD
> arsenals. Collective security is nonsense, because the aggressor
> will usually be more heavily armed that the little guy;
> "policemen" can't be everywhere at once. Every country should have
> a WMD arsenal, and a decent and well-equipped peacetime army with
> trained reserves. Another fundamental flaw is the notion dominant
> since Wilson brokered peace in 1919, that the execution of war,
> unless it is a part of a "police action" is considered an
> international crime. The world order before 1919 recognized the
> primacy of force, the balance of power and the balance of terror
> as the true movers of world history. We should return to such an
> order based on realist principles. Examples of international
> orders where this prevailed is ancient Greece from 550 BC to 320
> BC, The romans throughout their history, china from 770 BC to
> about 100 BC, and again from 180 AD to about 650 ad and a lesser
> extent from 860 AD to 1280 AD. The middle east especially from
> 1050 ad to about 1400 ad, Europe from about 1300 AD to 1713 AD,
> and to a much lesser extent until 1919 AD.
When a citizen of NY City is mugged, you don't blame the victim by
saying that it's his fault he was mugged since he didn't hire a
bodyguard detail to follow him around. You have a police force that
serves the entire population. You can't turn everyone into a
policeman.

Like it or not, America has been policeman of the world since the end
of WW II. Japan and the Philippines didn't need army, because they
had defense treaties with the policeman of the world. You can't turn
every nation into a policeman. When the policeman pull out, then the
criminals take over. In this case, the criminals are China, Russia,
Iran and Syria.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken, Serbia did not have much of an army,
because they were depending on Russia to defend them.







Post#1610 at 08-10-2014 04:25 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
That's a great story. It's very interesting that Russia is now
forced to provide weapons to Iraq.

There's a great deal of irony in this situation, and a tiny bit of
Schadenfreude. The reason that Syria became a jihadist magnet is that
Russia and Iran have poured weapons and troops into Syria to support
al-Assad's genocide against the Sunnis. Now ISIS has become so
powerful that it's an existential threat to Iran and a terrorist
threat to Russia. So Russia and Iran are definitely getting what they
deserve.
Russia, Iran, and likely China have their own concerns with ISIS. Russia has its own concern with jihadist types.

Today, there are thousands of American and European young men, with no
records and with clean passports, who have gone to Syria for jihadist
training, and many have undoubtedly joined ISIS, whose charter is to
strike Europe and America with terrorist acts.
Such people are traitors. One would think that people who went to Western schools would have learned the virtues of liberalism and that those are compatible with Islam. What liberals do not do is pit one part of Islam against another.

And we're led by a president with no moral compass and no
comprehension or appreciation of American values, who is following
what might be called the "Vietnam strategy" for entering Iraq.

What I mean by that is that George Bush #1 took a firm decision, and
fought Iraq to extract it from Kuwait. Clinton took a firm decision,
and bombed the hell of Iraq to protect the Kurds and prevent
development weapons of mass destruction. George Bush #2 took a firm
decision, and invaded Iraq to get rid of Iran's weapons of mass
destruction.
You may despise Obama, but I see him having much more in common with the elder Bush than with the younger one. Barack Obama makes sure that he has his facts straight before he does anything decisive. Dubya took a firm decision based upon a fantasy that he wanted to be true. Genocide does not always first begin at a glacial pace as it did in the Devil's Reich. Is President Obama effective in dealing with ISIS-directed genocide? Time will tell. We do not fault President Roosevelt for the Bataan Death March.

The Kurds, so far the heroes of this struggle, have given sanctuary to Christians and Shi'ites in northern Iraq and have gotten safe passage for some Yazidis. So long as any part of Humanity resists evil, the struggle is not over.

Obama is so conflicted about preserving his imaginary legacy that he's
totally confused and has taken no firm decisions on Iraq. He's
ignored the Syria genocide. He flip-flopped on Syria's chemical
weapons red line. He's sent hundreds of soldiers into Iraq to act as
"advisors." He's moved seven aircraft carriers into the Persian Gulf.
He's now dropping food and water on trapped Yazidis, providing them
with their last meals before ISIS slaughters them. He's sent
warplanes to bomb ISIS's American-made Humvees. He's sent warplanes
to protect American soldiers in Erbil. He probably wakes up every
morning, looks in the mirror, and says, "What should I do today in
Iraq to make me look good?" So we're following the Vietnam strategy
of getting sucked in, one step at a time.
The big story is genocide. Because of ambiguities in the ground situation, President Obama was unable to do anything in Syria. He could give nothing to the official Syrian regime which itself is genocidal. In Iraq there is an official government that, whatever its faults, isn't particularly brutal. So he has done too little so far? That can change.

So Russia is now selling warplanes to Iraq. Maybe Russia's
psychopathic president Vladimir Putin, who's making a career out of
humiliating Obama and America, can bail us all out.
Self-interest makes some strange, if often strained, relationships.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#1611 at 08-10-2014 05:01 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> Dubya took a firm decision based upon a fantasy that he wanted to
> be true.

Utter nonsense. Almost everyone in the world believed that Saddam had
WMDs. There was even evidence that Saddam believed that he had WMDs.
If Bush was having a fantasy, then so was everyone else.

There's a great deal of fatuous nonsense being written about this. How do
you know there were no WMDs? How does anyone know there were no WMDs?
The only way we know is that the invasion revealed that there were no WMDs.

Therefore, if there had been no invasion, then we still wouldn't know
until this day whether Saddam had WMDs. And we certainly wouldn't
know whether he was going to continue developing WMDs.

And if we didn't know, then Iran didn't know. Iran had already been
victimized by Saddam's WMDs. Saddam was refusing inspections, and if
the US had pulled out, then Iran would have gone on a WMD spree to
defend themselves from Saddam, which Saddam would have matched, and
they might well been at war by now.

So Bush did what he had to do, according to the Truman Doctrine. If
he hadn't, then he would have been defeated in 2004 by someone who
would follow the Truman Doctrine. If he wasn't, then Iran and Iraq
would probably have been in a wmd war by now.

As things stand, Obama repudiated the Truman Doctrine, giving rise to
ISIS, which is threatening Iran, Russia, Europe, and America. That's
why the Truman Doctrine is at the center of all this.

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> You may despise Obama, but I see him having much more in common
> with the elder Bush than with the younger one. Barack Obama makes
> sure that he has his facts straight before he does anything
> decisive.
I don't despise Obama any more than I despise most politicians, and
this whole argument is silly boilerplate nonsense. Every president,
every person, "makes sure he has his facts straight," or thinks he
does. I listen to some of Obama's speeches, when I feel that I have a
moral obligation to do so, and every time I do, I get the feeling that
he lives in another world, with no clue what's going on in this world,
without his facts straight. I have no idea what your reasoning is
comparing Obama to the elder Bush.







Post#1612 at 08-10-2014 05:10 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
When a citizen of NY City is mugged, you don't blame the victim by
saying that it's his fault he was mugged since he didn't hire a
bodyguard detail to follow him around. You have a police force that
serves the entire population. You can't turn everyone into a
policeman.

Like it or not, America has been policeman of the world since the end
of WW II. Japan and the Philippines didn't need army, because they
had defense treaties with the policeman of the world. You can't turn
every nation into a policeman. When the policeman pull out, then the
criminals take over. In this case, the criminals are China, Russia,
Iran and Syria.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken, Serbia did not have much of an army,
because they were depending on Russia to defend them.
Lets use a smaller and more recent example than: in the Balkan war of the 1990s, the Serbs were clearly the aggressors, yet the Bosnian and Croatian governments in tackling the Serb threat did so very differently from one another. The Bosnian Government (mostly the Muslim forces and others who supported a multiethnic state) refused to retaliate against Serb ethnic cleansing with ethnic cleansing of their own, they instead insisted in fighting while maintaining a higher morality and trying the seek international intervention. The Croatian government however had no such scruples; they retaliated to the Serb ethnic cleansing with their own ethnic cleansing on a massive scale and sought advantageous acquisitions of territory and resources on the side as well. They used the international talks at all times to further their own position. Croatia today is a prosperous member of the EU, Bosnia however is relatively poor and still requires a UN monitoring force to keep the peace. The Serbs have weakened to such an extent that they are no longer a real threat to Croatia, for Bosnia things are very different, the Serbs even now remain a threat to the Muslim and other multiethnic Bosnians. This Analogy is that America in any future major war should follow the policy of "Croatia" not that of "Bosnia".







Post#1613 at 08-10-2014 05:37 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
> Lets use a smaller and more recent example than: in the Balkan war
> of the 1990s, the Serbs were clearly the aggressors, yet the
> Bosnian and Croatian governments in tackling the Serb threat did
> so very differently from one another. The Bosnian Government
> (mostly the Muslim forces and others who supported a multiethnic
> state) refused to retaliate against Serb ethnic cleansing with
> ethnic cleansing of their own, they instead insisted in fighting
> while maintaining a higher morality and trying the seek
> international intervention. The Croatian government however had no
> such scruples; they retaliated to the Serb ethnic cleansing with
> their own ethnic cleansing on a massive scale and sought
> advantageous acquisitions of territory and resources on the side
> as well. They used the international talks at all times to further
> their own position. Croatia today is a prosperous member of the
> EU, Bosnia however is relatively poor and still requires a UN
> monitoring force to keep the peace. The Serbs have weakened to
> such an extent that they are no longer a real threat to Croatia,
> for Bosnia things are very different, the Serbs even now remain a
> threat to the Muslim and other multiethnic Bosnians. This Analogy
> is that America in any future major war should follow the policy
> of "Croatia" not that of "Bosnia".
I agree with your general philosophy. One of the many reasons I've
believed since the beginning that Hillary Clinton would have been a
much better president than Obama is because her husband is a violent
serial rapist, and the two of them would been willing to do what is
necessary to defend the United States.







Post#1614 at 08-10-2014 06:53 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
I agree with your general philosophy. One of the many reasons I've
believed since the beginning that Hillary Clinton would have been a
much better president than Obama is because her husband is a violent
serial rapist, and the two of them would been willing to do what is
necessary to defend the United States.
Hillary is a boomer, and is thus unelectable to Xers or millennials born before 1992. Millies born after 1992 may support a Clinton presidency since their parents are likely Xers and not boomers. A younger but more tough president would be a better future leader than Clinton or Obama. Clinton it seems approve the bombing of enemy cities in a war, but she, like all prophet generations would demand we stop shooting when the enemy raises their hands to surrender. The baby boomers would demand "regime change" and would moralize rather than seek a peace based on the preponderance of force. A younger leader born after 1968 would more likely also support the destruction of enemy cities but would also be willing to shoot and bring terror to enemies even after they raise the white flag to us. He or she would likely not moralize and would be more likely to agree to a negotiated peace once the threat begins to recede. War is as natural to the human condition as breathing, its as natural as the seasons between sunny and rainy days and vice-versa. The Wilsonian regards peace as mankind's natural state; an ahistorical assumption.







Post#1615 at 08-10-2014 07:00 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
War is as natural to the human condition as breathing.
What I always like to say is that war is as natural to the human condition as sex.







Post#1616 at 08-10-2014 08:00 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Utter nonsense. Almost everyone in the world believed that Saddam had
WMDs. There was even evidence that Saddam believed that he had WMDs.
If Bush was having a fantasy, then so was everyone else.
Only in America and Britain. French and German intelligence were convinced to the contrary.

There's a great deal of fatuous nonsense being written about this. How do
you know there were no WMDs? How does anyone know there were no WMDs?
The only way we know is that the invasion revealed that there were no WMDs.

Therefore, if there had been no invasion, then we still wouldn't know
until this day whether Saddam had WMDs. And we certainly wouldn't
know whether he was going to continue developing WMDs.
Aggressive war as exploratory surgery. Bad idea. How do we know that Absurdistan has no torture chambers? We must invade.

And if we didn't know, then Iran didn't know. Iran had already been
victimized by Saddam's WMDs. Saddam was refusing inspections, and if
the US had pulled out, then Iran would have gone on a WMD spree to
defend themselves from Saddam, which Saddam would have matched, and
they might well been at war by now.
If Saddam Hussein subsequently got WMDs, then someone else would have screamed bloody murder. Under Gorbachev, the Soviet Union concurred that Iraqi missiles that could reach deep into the Soviet Union were intolerable. I can trust Vladimir Putin to have insisted on the destruction of banned missiles.

So Bush did what he had to do, according to the Truman Doctrine. If
he hadn't, then he would have been defeated in 2004 by someone who
would follow the Truman Doctrine. If he wasn't, then Iran and Iraq
would probably have been in a wmd war by now.
The rules were still in place. It is far easier to prove a positive premise than a negative premise.

As things stand, Obama repudiated the Truman Doctrine, giving rise to
ISIS, which is threatening Iran, Russia, Europe, and America. That's
why the Truman Doctrine is at the center of all this.
Truman Doctrine? If that is what we had beforehand, then we are back to it. ISIS has refuted some assumptions.


I don't despise Obama any more than I despise most politicians, and
this whole argument is silly boilerplate nonsense. Every president,
every person, "makes sure he has his facts straight," or thinks he
does. I listen to some of Obama's speeches, when I feel that I have a
moral obligation to do so, and every time I do, I get the feeling that
he lives in another world, with no clue what's going on in this world,
without his facts straight. I have no idea what your reasoning is
comparing Obama to the elder Bush.
The elder Bush tried every alternative to war to coax Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait. There was a Soviet offer that was not quite perfect, but it would have worked. Saddam Hussein could have taken it and saved his troops from ignominious defeat and mass death. Things have escalated even faster with ISIS committing war crimes and genocide.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#1617 at 08-10-2014 08:27 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> Only in America and Britain. French and German intelligence were
> convinced to the contrary.
France, Russia and the UN were the worst and most disgusting of all,
taking huge kickbacks from Saddam in the oil-for-food program. It
appears that they couldn't have cared less if Saddam killed millions
of people with chemical or biological weapons, as long as they got
their money. But almost everyone that wasn't taking kickbacks were
convinced that Saddam had WMDs.







Post#1618 at 08-10-2014 09:32 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Xenakis probably also think that Americans did not learn of bin Laden's existence and threat until the crew manifests from the planes were located a couple weeks after 9/11.







Post#1619 at 08-10-2014 11:05 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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11-Aug-14 World View -- Iraq's PM al-Maliki orders troops and tanks into Baghdad

*** 11-Aug-14 World View -- Iraq's PM al-Maliki orders troops and tanks into Baghdad

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • China rebukes John Kerry's South China Sea 'freeze' proposal
  • Belarus to be the big winner in Russia's food import ban
  • Iraq's PM al-Maliki orders troops and tanks into Baghdad


****
**** China rebukes John Kerry's South China Sea 'freeze' proposal
****


At a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
China firmly rejected a proposal by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
to "freeze" all activity in the South China Sea. According to the
proposal, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and other nations would
freeze all activity that raises tension in the South China Sea.

China has been pursuing a "salami slicing strategy" to annex South
China Sea territories belonging to other countries. China has annexed
several islands and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to Vietnam
and the Philippines, and is threatening to annex other territories
belonging to Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.

An unnamed senior U.S. official said ASEAN countries' concern over
China's maritime actions was at an "all-time high" based on private
conversations, although their public statements were more guarded to
avoid antagonizing China.

China's foreign minister Wang Yi blamed the United States for
stirring up trouble:

<QUOTE>"Someone has been exaggerating or even playing up the
so-called tension in the South China Sea. We do not agree with
such a practice. We have already found a method to solve this
issue between China and Asean countries. The South China Sea has
become stabilized now. No other issues have risen
recently."<END QUOTE>

I don't have the vaguest clue what "method" Wang is referring to.
Well, actually, I guess it's China's standard method: China tells its
neighbor to do as commanded, or face being killed militarily. That
stabilizes the situation.

Yi said that China will continue to exercise restraint, but will
respond to provocations unequivocally and resolutely. He added that
safeguarding its sovereignty over the South China Sea is unshakable.

As usual, John Kerry was in his own dream bubble, and claimed that the
ASEAN meeting was a setback for China, because the final statement
called for stepped-up talks with China. Kerry said that the
communique's language "goes far enough" despite China's rebuff of the
freeze proposal.
Xinhua and Eleven (Myanmar/Burma) and VOA

****
**** Belarus to be the big winner in Russia's food import ban
****


Last week, Russia retaliated against western sanctions with a sweeping
ban on food imports -- meat and poultry, seafood, milk and dairy
products including cheese, fruit, vegetables and vegetable oil-based
products -- from countries that have imposed their own sanctions on
Russia for the annexation of Crimea, including the U.S., European
Union, Australia and Norway.

Belarus is planning to help the Russian people. According to a
Belarus official: "We can make up for many Western-made food products.
We can supply a variety of cheeses. ... we can replace Polish apples
and Dutch potatoes, we have them all."

However, Belarus already has a record of reselling European goods to
Russia with a Belarusian label, in order to avoid Russian import
duties on European goods. This underground activity is expected to
expand substantially under the European food import ban. Moscow Times

****
**** Iraq's PM al-Maliki orders troops and tanks into Baghdad
****


Security forces, tanks and Shia militia have surged into the streets
of Baghdad, after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gave a surprise
nationally televised speech accusing President Fuad Masum, a Kurd, of
attempting a coup to prevent him from running for a third term.
Al-Maliki has been under tremendous international pressure to step
down, because he's been a divisive figure in his harsh treatment of
Sunnis since the withdrawal of American forces in December 2011. Even
some of his allies recently have called for him to step down.

The exact reasons why al-Maliki called the troops and security forces
into Baghdad are unclear, but the move is being declared as "ominous."
At least, the troops are intended to be intimidating, but they may
also mean that al-Maliki is going to declare martial law in case he
fails. Several days ago, he said that any attempt to form a
government without him would open the "gates of hell" in Iraq.

The increasing political chaos in Iraq comes just days after President
Obama announced a campaign of air strikes in Iraq, possibly to
continue for months, to prevent genocide of tens of thousands of
minorities and to aid the Kurdish Peshmerga militias from attacks by
ISIS. Obama has vowed that there will be no American "boots on the
ground," but a number of analysts on Sunday expressed skepticism that
he would be able to keep that promise. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and CNN and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, John Kerry, South China Sea,
ASEAN, Association of South East Asian Nations,
Vietnam, Philippines, salami slicing strategy, Wang Yi,
Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, Fuad Masum, Peshmerga

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail







Post#1620 at 08-11-2014 01:06 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Russia has already
annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and is threatening to annex
eastern Ukraine and Moldova's Transnistria region.
A[nother] transparent lie. Russia* has not 'threatened' to annex either of those regions, or anywhere else for that matter.

-----
*in keeping with the rest of the sentence and paragraph, you are using "Russia" here as shorthand for "the Russian government". Quite appropriate shorthand, and universal. Just don't try to weasel out of your lie by claiming that in this one sentence you meant 'one or two Russian citizens'. Because the context of what you wrote makes it clear that's not the assertion you are trying to make.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc Ítre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŗ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce Ítre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#1621 at 08-11-2014 01:32 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
> A[nother] transparent lie. Russia* has not 'threatened' to annex
> either of those regions, or anywhere else for that matter.
> -----
> *in keeping with the rest of the sentence and paragraph, you are
> using "Russia" here as shorthand for "the Russian government".
> Quite appropriate shorthand, and universal. Just don't try to
> weasel out of your lie by claiming that in this one
> sentence
you meant 'one or two Russian citizens'. Because
> the context of what you wrote makes it clear that's not the
> assertion you are trying to make.
You're the one using weasel words. When Russia masses troops on
Ukraine's border, which happens on a regular basis, and simultaneously
talks about the necessity of protecting ethnic Russians, then Russia
IS threatening to annex eastern Ukraine -- especially after using the
same rhetoric and technique to annex Crimea, after saying explicitly
that Crimea would not be annexed. And when, in the context of
annexing Crimea and threatening eastern Ukraine, Dmitry Rogozin
travels to Transnistria to collect boxes of signatures of Moldovan
secessionists, the Russia IS threatening to annex Transnistria.

And so Russia HAS threatened to annex both eastern Ukraine and
Transnistria.







Post#1622 at 08-11-2014 02:11 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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08-11-2014, 02:11 PM #1622
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
...When Russia masses troops on
Ukraine's border...
You mean, "on Kazakhstan's border", of course. Because what you just said is another lie. Transdnistria is even further from Kazakhstan than Ukraine is.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc Ítre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŗ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce Ítre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#1623 at 08-11-2014 09:47 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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08-11-2014, 09:47 PM #1623
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12-Aug-14 World View -- Russia to send 'non-military' aid truck convoy into Ukraine

*** 12-Aug-14 World View -- Russia to send 'non-military' aid truck convoy into eastern Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Russia to send 'non-military' aid truck convoy into eastern Ukraine
  • Hamas restricts foreign media reporting after NDTV shows rocket launch
  • U.S. sending weapons directly to Kurds in Iraq


****
**** Russia to send 'non-military' aid truck convoy into eastern Ukraine
****


Russia says that it will send a truck convoy with humanitarian aid
across the border into east Ukraine, into the region around Donetsk,
which is currently being held by pro-Russian separatist militias. The
announcement said that the convoy will be non-military, and that the
aid will be provided in conjunction with the International Committee
of the Red Cross (ICRC). The ICRC responded cautiously, saying,
"[P]rior to the beginning of the operation, the ICRC should receive
without undue delay from the authorities of the Russian Federation all
necessary details concerning the aid, including the volume and type of
items, and requirements for transport and storage."

The Ukraine government in Kiev has surrounded the pro-Russian militias
in Donetsk, cutting off travel and supplies, with analyst opinions
mixed about whether Kiev is close to defeating them. Thousands of
people are believed to be short of water, electricity and medical aid
due to the fighting. It's feared that Russia will use the
humanitarian convoy as a pretext for military action to support the
pro-Russian militias. Reuters and Ria Novosti (Moscow) and Itar-Tass (Moscow)

****
**** Hamas restricts foreign media reporting after NDTV shows rocket launch
****


On Sunday, Hamas announced that it will severely restrict reporting of
the Gaza war by foreign journalists, possibly in retaliation for the
airing a week ago of a video of the assembly and launch of a rocket
from a heavily populated area of Gaza. ( "10-Aug-14 World View -- New Delhi TV accidentally gets video of Hamas rocket launch in Gaza"
)

Hamas has been harassing reporters since the beginning of the war, and
has threatened reporters with retaliation for publishing news that was
not favorable to Hamas. On Sunday, Paul T. JÝrgensen of Norway's TV2
reported that:

<QUOTE>"[S]everal foreign journalists have been kicked out of
Gaza because Hamas does not like what they wrote or said.

We have received strict orders that if we record that Hamas fires
rockets or that they shoot, we will face serious problems and be
expelled from Gaza."<END QUOTE>

The Foreign Press Association on Monday denounced the new
Hamas restrictions in a statement:

<QUOTE>"The FPA protests in the strongest terms the blatant,
incessant, forceful and unorthodox methods employed by the Hamas
authorities and their representatives against visiting
international journalists in Gaza over the past month.

The international media are not advocacy organizations and cannot
be prevented from reporting by means of threats or pressure,
thereby denying their readers and viewers an objective picture
from the ground.

In several cases, foreign reporters working in Gaza have been
harassed, threatened or questioned over stories or information
they have reported through their news media or by means of social
media.

We are also aware that Hamas is trying to put in place a "vetting"
procedure that would, in effect, allow for the blacklisting of
specific journalists. Such a procedure is vehemently opposed by
the FPA."<END QUOTE>

According to the new rules, announced on Sunday, Hamas will require
foreign journalists covering Gaza to provide information about
Palestinian translators and fixers, as well as the address where they
are staying. Camera.org and Jerusalem Post and Foreign Press Association

****
**** U.S. sending weapons directly to Kurds in Iraq
****


The U.S. is sending weapons directly to the Kurds in Iraq, to help the
Kurdish Peshmerga forces fight militias from the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). ISIS hopelessly outguns the Peshmerga,
since they have advanced American-made Humvees and other heavy weapons
that were acquired from warehouses when ISIS captured the city of
Mosul. The intention is that the U.S. weapons shipments will even
things out a little, though the light arms being shipped are still no
match for Humvees and tanks.

Army Lt. Gen. William C. Mayville Jr. on Monday said that nothing that
America is doing, including airstrikes, is expected to have much
effect on ISIS:

<QUOTE>"I in no way want to suggest that we have effectively
contained, or that we are somehow breaking, the momentum of the
threat.

Theyíre very well-organized, They are very well-equipped. They
coordinate their operations. And they have thus far shown the
ability to attack on multiple axes. This is not
insignificant."<END QUOTE>

It's beginning to look like we're using what what might be called the
"Vietnam strategy" for entering Iraq.

What I mean by that is that George Bush #1 took a firm decision, and
fought Iraq to extract it from Kuwait. Bill Clinton took a firm
decision, and bombed the hell of Iraq to protect the Kurds and prevent
development of weapons of mass destruction. George Bush #2 took a
firm decision, and invaded Iraq to get rid of Iraq's reported weapons
of mass destruction.

However, no firm decisions are being made now with respect to Iraq,
and we're being pulled into Iraq more and more in a reactive mode, one
step at a time. This is how Presidents Kennedy and Johnson got us
into the Vietnam War, and we appear to be repeating that strategy.
Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Donetsk,
International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC,
Hamas, NDTV, Paul T. JÝrgensen, Foreign Press Association,
Iraq, Kurds, Peshmerga, William C Mayville Jr

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Post#1624 at 08-12-2014 10:24 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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13-Aug-14 World View- Mammoth Russian truck convoy heads for confrontation at Ukraine

*** 13-Aug-14 World View -- Mammoth Russian truck convoy heads for confrontation at Ukraine border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Mammoth Russian truck convoy heads for confrontation at Ukraine border
  • Indirect Hamas-Israeli negotiations for Gaza war continue in Cairo
  • U.S. sends 130 more troops to Iraq as advisors


****
**** Mammoth Russian truck convoy heads for confrontation at Ukraine border
****



Convoy of Russian trucks headed for Ukraine on Tuesday (Reuters)

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Russia
and Ukraine had reached agreement that a huge truck convoy will be
permitted to cross the border from Russia into Ukraine, and then
proceed to distribute humanitarian aid in areas of east Ukraine
inhabited by a mostly Russian-speaking population.

According to Lavrov, the truck convoy will arrive at the Ukraine
border in a couple days, at which time they will take on
representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC), who will oversee the aid distribution. However, the ICRC has
not said that it agrees to participate in this operation.

The convoy is mammoth, several miles long. According to Lavrov, there
are 280 trucks. The convoy will be comprised of 262 vehicles,
including 198 truck with material means and electricity generators
with an overall weigh of 1,809.9 tonnes. The humanitarian aid
includes: 69 electricity generator, 400 tonnes of cereals, 340 tonnes
of canned meat, 30 tonnes of salt, 100 tonnes of sugar, 60 tonnes of
canned milk, 0.8 tonnes of tea, 679.5 tonnes of bottled water, 62.4
tonnes of baby foods, 54 tonnes of medical equipment, and 12,300
sleeping bags.

The Russians are deeply distrusted by the West and by Ukraine, thanks
to their illegal annexation of Crimea, and their thousands of
invasion-ready troops, tanks and warplanes massed near the Ukraine
border. The fear is that this mammoth truck convoy is like the
mythical "Trojan Horse," carrying soldiers and weapons to armed
anti-government militias in east Ukraine. Reuters and Itar-Tass (Moscow) and PRI

****
**** Indirect Hamas-Israeli negotiations for Gaza war continue in Cairo
****


With the latest 3-day ceasefire scheduled to expire at midnight on
Wednesday, officials from Hamas and Israel are in Cairo to decide on
terms that might allow the ceasefire to be extended. The negotiations
are being called "indirect," because Hamas and Israeli representatives
are in different rooms, and are not talking to each other. Hamas does
not recognize the nation of Israel, and Israel considers Hamas to be a
terrorist organization. Instead, Egyptian representatives talk
alternately to the Hamas and Israeli representatives, and carry
messages and proposals back and forth between the two rooms.

According to leaks, no progress is being made on the major issues.
Hamas will not agree to military disarmament, as Israel is demanding.
And Israel will not agree to build an airport and seaport, and offer
safe passage between the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as Hamas is
demanding.

However, the leaked reports suggest that some progress may have been
made. In particular, the Israelis and Palestinians have agreed on the
reopening of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt,
provided that 1000 Palestinian Authority police officers are deployed
at the terminal.

As I've written several times in the past, there's only one big thing
that the two sides agree to: No return to the status quo ante.
Israel will not tolerate a ceasefire if it means a continuing stream
of rocket launches from Gaza into Israel. And if Hamas cannot get
some major concession, such as the opening of all six border crossings
from Gaza into Egypt and Israel, then then all the destruction that
Gazans have suffered in the last few weeks will be lost. The logic of
this situation indicates that the war will continue.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major war between Arabs and Jews,
re-fighting the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the
1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of
Israel. Arab News and Jerusalem Post

****
**** U.S. sends 130 more troops to Iraq as advisors
****


U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced on Tuesday that 130
additional troops were being deployed in Iraq to act as advisors.
According to Hagel:

<QUOTE>"This is not a combat boots on the ground kind of
operation. We're not going back into Iraq in any of the same
combat mission dimensions that we once were in in
Iraq."<END QUOTE>

CNN and ABC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Sergei Lavrov, Trojan Horse,
International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC,
Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Rafah crossing,
Iraq, Chuck Hagel

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Post#1625 at 08-12-2014 10:40 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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08-12-2014, 10:40 PM #1625
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
When a citizen of NY City is mugged, you don't blame the victim by
saying that it's his fault he was mugged since he didn't hire a
bodyguard detail to follow him around. You have a police force that
serves the entire population. You can't turn everyone into a
policeman.

Like it or not, America has been policeman of the world since the end
of WW II. Japan and the Philippines didn't need army, because they
had defense treaties with the policeman of the world. You can't turn
every nation into a policeman. When the policeman pull out, then the
criminals take over. In this case, the criminals are China, Russia,
Iran and Syria.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken, Serbia did not have much of an army,
because they were depending on Russia to defend them.
Agreed about blaming the victim. I don't blame the victim for his plight unless the victim has done something not really one's right -- like moving about drunk while possessing a cash-rich wallet. That said, New York City has a subway police detail, one of which sets itself up to be tempting victims who might see a (fake) drunk with a fat wallet or a (fake) dazed-and-confused foreign tourist instead of bait.

Syria under the Assad (crime) dynasty and North Korea under the Kim (crime) dynasty undeniably are bad guys. Russia, China, and Iran are not so much the criminals of international politics but corrupt cops who can be harsh enforcers. On occasion a corrupt cop does something right.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
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