Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

A region cannot legally vote in a referendum to secede and join
another country.

Says who? New York (to pick one example) voted to secede and join the United States of America. That was patently against the laws of the old rulers of New York. But, like, so what?

Crimea is still part of Ukraine, except that Russia
has used military force to annex it, in violation of Ukraine's
sovereignty.

Setting aside the delusional first clause, this sentence of yours fails as no military force was used to annex Crimea. Again, a referendum was held among Crimeans, and then in accord with the democratically-expressed wishes of those people, the constitution of the Russian Federation was amended (in full accord with the rules for doing so) to accomodate the new federal sub-entity. No military force.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia are still part of Georgia, except that
Russia has used military force to take control of both provinces, in
violation of Georgia's sovereignty.

Again, first part delusion, second part falsehood. Russia neither controls the nations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia nor does so with military force.

If Russia felt that it had the right to use military force in this
way, it should have gone to the UN Security Council.

Your red herring is not worth anyone's time. Again - no military force, no invasion.

By the way, Bashar al-Assad IS a genocidal monster, and HAS been
committing genocide in Syria...

We've already established quite thoroughly that when you use 'genocide' it is as a purely content-free insult. It's your 'fascism' or 'socialism', if you will. Assad is a killer and an asshole, but 'genocide' means a specific thing, and Assad hasn't done it.

*** 15-Aug-14 World View -- Russia threatens to invade Ukraine from East and West

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine
• Russia uses an army of trolls on social media
• Russian military convoy crosses border into Ukraine
• Russia's humanitarian convoy appears poised to enter Ukraine without consent
• Ukraine fears Russian invasion of Odessa from the west
• China's bank lending falls 64% in July

****
**** Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine
****


Screen grab of Buk missile system in Ukraine. Separatist leaders initially bragged that they had the Buk system and had shot down MH17, and then later denied ever having said that. (Ukraine Security Service)

Russia employs a sophisticated disinformation campaign to obscure
facts when it violates international law. There is no more dramatic
example of this than Russia's reaction to the shooting down of
Malaysia Airlines flight 17 last month. It was, and is, almost
universally believed that it was shot down with a Russian-supplied Buk
surface-to-air missile system by pro-Russian militias in eastern
Ukraine who believed that it was a Ukrainian air force warplane.

However, that narrative was unacceptable to Russia because it made the
pro-Russian separatists look bad, and because it implied indirect
culpability of the Russian armed forces, who are not supposed to be
supplying ANY weapons to Ukrainian separatists, particularly highly
advance surface-to-air missiles.

There followed a blast of Russian propaganda, attempting to confuse
the issue and pin the blame elsewhere. The claims by Russia
controlled media included:

• The airplane was not shot down at all, but fell out of the sky
  by itself;
• A bomb exploded aboard the airplane;
• The airplane was hit by a Ukrainian missile fired from the
  ground;
• A Ukrainian air force fighter pursued and then attacked the
  plane;
• The U.S. shot down the plane in order to damage Russia's
  reputation;
• No living people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot
  from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting
  corpses."

Russia denied that troops had been sent to Crimea, although they
had been sent and they had played in role in fixing the referendum
that Russia used to justify annexation of Crimea. Russia has
denied sending weapons and troops to separatists in east Ukraine,
when there has been plenty of evidence that they had, including
broadcast interviews with separatist leaders bragging that
they had come from Russia. Russia has obscured its own military
actions in east Ukraine by accusing the Kiev government of
being "neo-Nazis" and "Fascists."

What's really remarkable is that the Russian people seem to completely
believe anything that Vladimir Putin and the Russian-controlled media
tell them. Putin himself has astronomical public approval ratings.

Putin has been increasingly cracking down on Russia's press. There
have been several well publicized resignations from Russia Today in
the last few months by people who said that they could no longer
continue lying for the Kremlin.

In writing articles about Russia, I've noticed a big problem these
days with Russian media. I used to be able to reference Russia Today
and sometimes even Ria Novosti, but in the last few months they've
become completely uncritical mouthpieces for Putin, in the same
category as Xinhua for China and PressTv for Iran. So there's no
longer any mainstream Russian media I can really count on. Moscow Times and Jamestown and Sydney Morning Herald

****
**** Russia uses an army of trolls on social media
****

While Russia's president Vladimir Putin maintains an iron grip on the
state-run media, the internet remains a big problem for Putin, as he's
had little ability to control Twitter and other social media.

Putin has responded to this problem in a bizarre way. According to
documents examined by an analyst firm, since April a Russian firm
called the Internet Research Agency, with a 2014 budget of $10
million, has been hiring hundreds of "internet trolls" to challenge
any online article critical of Russia.

Each troll is expected to post comments on blogs and news sites 50
times per day. The comments range from lies and disinformation to
abuse and profanity. Each blogger is to maintain six Facebook
accounts, posting three times a day in each. On Twitter, they're
expected to manage 10 accounts and tweet 50 times a day. The Atlantic and BuzzFeed

****
**** Russian military convoy crosses border into Ukraine
****

A column of 23 armored personnel carriers, supported by fuel trucks
and other logistics vehicles with official Russian military plates,
cross the border into Ukraine late Thursday evening. The border
between Russia and east Ukraine is long and porous, and so usually
these military convoys pass back and forth undetected, allowing the
Kremlin to lie about them. But in this case, this military convoy
(different from the well-publicized 280-truck humanitarian convoy also
approaching the border) was photographed by the Moscow
correspondent of the Guardian.

The military convoy paused by the side of the road until nightfall,
and then crossed into Ukraine on a dirt road passing through a gap in
a barbed wire fence demarcating the border. According to the
Guardian, this is incontrovertible evidence of Russian troops inside
Ukraine's borders, despite Russia's repeated denials and
disinformation.

At the same time, Russia has been increasing its military presence
near the border with Ukraine, with an estimated 20,000 Russian troops
currently deployed. Russian residents near the Ukraine border report
seeing tanks and armored personnel carriers cross into Ukraine
regularly. Guardian (London) and Business Insider and Reuters

****
**** Russia's humanitarian convoy appears poised to enter Ukraine without consent
****

The 280 vehicle "humanitarian convoy" that we've previously
described ( "13-Aug-14 World View -- Mammoth Russian truck convoy heads for confrontation at Ukraine border"
) continued to approach Ukraine's border on
Thursday.

During a one-day pause on Wednesday, the humanitarian convoy was
joined by helicopters, surface-to-air missile systems, and possible
anti-aircraft weapons systems, according to reporters who had viewed
the convoy.

Supposedly, the convoy is supposed to arrive at the Ukraine border,
and allow every truck to be inspected by the International Committee
of the Red Cross (ICRC). The ICRC would then take control of the
convoy and oversee the distribution of aid. However, the ICRC reports
that it's not being permitted to inspect the trucks, even though it's
traveling under an ICRC flag. According to an ICRC spokesman:

<QUOTE>"At the moment it is not an International Red Cross
convoy, inasmuch as we haven't had sight of the material, we
haven't had certain information regarding the content, and the
volume of aid that it contains."<END QUOTE>

The travel route of the convoy is unclear. The convoy suddenly
changed routes on Thursday to avoid a Ukraine-controlled checkpoint
and enter Ukraine at a checkpoint controlled by the pro-Russian
separatists in east Ukraine.

It now seems likely that the convoy will cross the border and spread
out to be used as a shield to protect the pro-Russian militias, who
are currently losing to Ukraine's army. Business Insider and BBC

****
**** Ukraine fears Russian invasion of Odessa from the west
****

Ukraine border guards in Ukraine's west, along the border with
Moldova's Transnistria, have reported instances of reconnaissance
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Transnistria violating Ukrainian
air space.

Moldova’s Transnistria region is de facto under the control of Russian
military forces. According to official figures, which are believed to
be underestimates, the Russian military in Transnistria consist of
some 1,500 troops of the Operational Group of Russian Forces
(Operativnaya Gruppa Rossiyskih Voysk—OGRV), which are augmented by
over 400 Russian "peacekeepers." These troops conducted a
training exercise on the west Ukraine border earlier this year.
When combined with local volunteers, it's likely that Russia
could amass, in a matter of hours, at least 10,000-12,000
combat-ready military personnel.

Ukraine is concerned that this force is poised to invade Ukraine from
the west in order to overrun the Odessa, Ukraine's only remaining sea
port after Crimea was annexed. Like Crimea and east Ukraine, the
Odessa sea port in southwest Ukraine is another region in Ukraine
where Russia has expressed an interest in "protecting" Russian
speakers. In executing this invasion, Russia could also use the
2,000-strong Cossack force that is subordinated to the Transnistrian
KGB for initial infiltration of Odessa region, posing as "opolchenye"
(people’s militia). Jamestown and Ria Novosti

****
**** China's bank lending falls 64% in July
****

China's banks made $62.53 billion in new loans in July, down 64% from
June, while total social financial fell 86%. The People's Bank of
China (PBOC) sought to reassure markets that the data was distorted by
a lending binge in June. However, demand for loans has been
weakening, and Russia's enormous housing bubble, far bigger than
America's housing bubble of eight years ago, appears to be bursting.
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Buk missile system,
Crimea, Vladimir Putin, Russia Today, Internet Research Agency,
International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC,
Moldova, Transnistria, Odessa,
Operational Group of Russian Forces,
Operativnaya Gruppa Rossiyskih Voysk, OGRV,
China, People's Bank of China

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*** 16-Aug-14 World View -- West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies
• Ukraine says it partially destroyed Russian military convoy crossing border

****
**** West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies
****


Nigerian doctors treating an Ebola patient

The Ebola panic is almost reaching the point where West Africa is
being quarantined and cut off from the rest of the world, with travel
bans increasing. Airlines are suspending flights to some West African
cities. The Ebola crisis could also create shortages of food, fuel
and other supplies because the nearest big port, Abidjan in Ivory
Coast, has announced a ban on all ships from the Ebola-affected
countries Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the three hardest hit
countries. Cross-border markets have been shut down and several major
mining companies have scaled back their operations or postponed
expansion plans.

With estimates of more than 1,060 deaths and 1,975 infected, the Ebola
outbreak in West Africa is already the deadliest ever. And the World
Health Organization (WHO) says that the size of the epidemic may be
"vastly underestimated," as there are rumors of entire villages being
wiped out, and some infected people simply afraid to notify the
authorities of their illness. One health worker was quoted as saying,
"If you have people fly in to your village looking like Martians
[because of the non-contamination suits], and everyone is getting
sick, it's not hard to believe that the Martians are making you sick."

These panicked reactions are not only devastating the economies of
West African countries, they're also making the problem of stabilizing
the Ebola epidemic more difficult. According to WHO,

<QUOTE>"WHO is disappointed when airlines stop flying to West
Africa. Hard to save lives if we and other health workers cannot
get in."<END QUOTE>

Nigeria has had eleven cases of Ebola and one death, but panic is
spreading rapidly, particularly in the crowded city of Lagos, where
it's feared that Ebola may be passed from person to person faster than
authorities can stop it. The crisis is exacerbated by a strike by
16,000 of the country's doctors for better working conditions.
Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan on Friday fired the striking
doctors, for striking during a medical emergency.

Nigeria is already facing severe disruptions because of the Boko Haram
terrorist group. One government official estimates that "3 million
Nigerians are facing 'serious humanitarian challenges' because a
breadwinner has been killed in the turmoil or they are too scared to
plant the crops."

Now the Ebola panic is putting the entire country's economy at risk,
according to the Moody's ratings agency:

<QUOTE>"If a significant outbreak emerges in the Nigerian
capital of Lagos, the consequences for the West African oil and
gas industry would be considerable. Any material decline in
production would quickly translate into economic and fiscal
deterioration."<END QUOTE>

Globe and Mail and Sky News and Vice News and Barrons

****
**** Ukraine says it partially destroyed Russian military convoy crossing border
****

As we reported yesterday,
a convoy of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers crossed the border on
Thursday evening from Russia, through a hole in the barbed wire fence
separating the countries, into Ukraine. This was seen and
photographed by Moscow correspondents of two London papers, the
Guardian and the Telegraph.

On Friday, Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko bragged that his
forces had destroyed part of that military convoy. There were several
different Russian responses in different reports:

• There was no Russian military convoy in Ukraine.
• The Russian military convoy was in Russia, not in Ukraine.
• It was a Ukrainian military convoy, successfully attacked by
  pro-Russia separatist militias in Ukraine.
• Ukraine's government is making the claim because it wants
  to escalate the crisis.
• The whole report was "some kind of fantasy."

It's just too funny. The Guardian correspondent again travelled to
the site, and found the dirt road to be well-traveled. He also
witnessed at least 50 armored personnel carriers in the region, headed
toward toward the border.

Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters that
Russia made an "incursion" into Ukraine and that Nato sees a
continuous flow of Russian weapons into the country.

An interesting interpretation was heard by an analyst from Teneo
Intelligence that I heard quoted on CNBC:

<QUOTE>"The multiple crossings at Izvarino [border crossing]
in daylight and within sight of the international press suggest
that they wanted to be seen, most likely to test the reaction of
the international community. ... The Russian separatists control
several border crossings with no media presence. These could have
used by military vehicles instead."<END QUOTE>

The implication is that Russia wanted the military convoy to be seen
and attacked, possibly to provide an excuse for a Russian invasion.
The truth is that nobody knows what the Russians are planning, but the
increasing military activity near the Ukrainian border is causing many
to believe that, with the pro-Russian separatists close to losing to
the Ukrainian army, the Russians will take some military action
to protect them.

Meanwhile, Russia's 280-truck "humanitarian convoy" remains parked
near the Ukrainian border, and anything is possible this weekend.
Guardian (London) and Bloomberg and VOA



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, West Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea,
Ivory Cost, Nigeria, World Health Organization, WHO,
Russia, Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
Teneo Intelligence

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That convoy of armored vehicles? It wasn't Russian army. All the players out there -- Ukraine, Donbass... all of them -- use Russian vehicles, and the separatists control that stretch of the border (have for more than a month now) and duck back and forth all the time.

I know your handlers insist that you discount any fact stated by their Hitler-of-the-week. Fortunately, some truth about the convoy (whose destruction is so far only in the words of proven liars -- every other time gear has been destroyed in this war, it's been accompanied by photos and video) comes from Speigel.

And now, the constant refrain -- how many times must their lies be exposed to you before you start to approach the next line they feed you with a critical mind?

Sorry, Justin, I don't have any handlers. I make no money from
Generational Dynamics. For almost twelve years, I've been writing
Generational Dynamics analyses of historic and current events, and I
do so as a public service. And, to repeat what I've told you before,
there is no politician, web site, analyst or journalist in the world
with better predictive and analytical success. If you know of one, by
all means let me know.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> All the players out there -- Ukraine, Donbass... all of them --
> use Russian vehicles, and the separatists control that stretch of
> the border (have for more than a month now) and duck back and
> forth all the time.

Is this supposed to be a refutation? Actually, it supports what
Rasmussen said. Unless you believe that these military vehicles pass
back and forth between a hole in the barbed wire because the soldiers
want to visit their girlfriends, then it's reasonable to assume that
they're violating Ukrainian sovereignty, and they're passing weapons
to the separatist militias.

So, are you one of the Russian trolls I wrote about yesterday?

** 15-Aug-14 World View -- Russia threatens to invade Ukraine from East and West
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...15.htm#e140815

You certainly sound like one -- the same disinformation, abuse and
insults towards anyone who writes something that criticizes Russia.

I've noticed for several months now a contradiction in your postings.
You claim to hate Putin. He's an awful man, blah, blah, blah. But on
the other hand, you're a total mouthpiece for Putin. Do you have any
self-respect? Do you have any moral or ethical boundaries? Do you
really hate Putin, or have you simply sold yourself out, body and
sold, to him?

I hope you're at least making some money from your self-prostitution.
Do you get paid as a Russian troll? Do you work for the Russian
Internet Research Agency, which hires internet trolls to do what you
do?

Anyway, I went back and reread my article, and I did a great job! I
didn't say that the military convoy was attacked. I said that
Poroshenko bragged that it was attacked. I think that's a great way
to describe it.

I also referred to the massive stream of disinformation garbage put
out by Russian sources. Well, if the military convoy, really was not
attacked, then why all the crap? Why not just say, "Poroshenko was
lying - there was no attack - if there was, Poroshenko should show
some pictures."

Well, actually, we know the reason why. For the Kremlin to claim
there was no attack, then they'd have to admit that the military
convoy was there in the first place, in violation of Ukraine's
sovereignty. That explains the spewing of the massive stream of
disinformation garbage that I referenced.

The trouble with Russia -- and with you -- is that there are so many
lies and so much disinformation and so much abuse and so many insults
coming out all the time that they -- and you -- have no credibility.
They -- and you -- are just a bunch of whiny crank ranters who can't
deal with being criticized. But then again, what should one expect of
Russian trolls?

John

So... nothing to counter Spiegel's debunking of your latest claims?

Par for the course then. Carry on...

*** 17-Aug-14 World View -- Erdogan turns Turkey even more against Israel and Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey will send new flotilla to break Israel's blockade of Gaza
• Gaza war further splits Israel's relations with Turkey and U.S.
• Turkey gets closer to ISIS and Qatar and splits further with Egypt

****
**** Turkey will send new flotilla to break Israel's blockade of Gaza
****


Turkey's IHH to send a new flotilla to try to break Israel's blockade of Gaza

Turkey broke off diplomatic relations with Israel after the deaths of
nine Turkish citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between
Israel's navy and the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza
in violation of Israel's Gaza blockade. Since then, Israel's prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu has attempted find a way to meet the
demands of Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restore
relations. He's apologized to Erdogan for the incident, and he's
negotiated monetary payments to the families of the victims. But
Erdogan's third demand, fully ending the blockade of Gaza, has not
been met.

The 2010 flotilla was sponsored not by Turkey, but by a Turkish aid
group, the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH). Now the IHH has
issued a statement saying that activists from 12 countries met in
Istanbul and will send a new flotilla "in the shadow of the latest
Israeli aggression on Gaza." Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Gaza war further splits Israel's relations with Turkey and U.S.
****

Relations between president Barack Obama and Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu have always been extremely frosty, but never more
so since the start of the Gaza war. In the past, Obama has demanded
that Israel stop building settlements, and unilaterally accept a
return to Israel's 1948 borders. According to reports, White House
officials view Netanyahu as "reckless and untrustworthy," and Israeli
officials regard the Obama administration as "weak and naive." Last
month, US Secretary of State John Kerry submitted a proposed ceasefire
agreement, based on private discussions with Hamas's allies, Qatar and
Turkey, that gave Hamas everything it wanted. Since then, Israel has
shut the U.S. completely out of peace negotiations, and Egypt has
assumed the role that the U.S. used to have as chief mediator.

Israel is particularly disturbed by the Obama administration's
increasingly close ties with Iran, whom the Israelis consider to be an
existential threat because of potential nuclear weapon development.
Israel is forming increasingly close alliances with Egypt, Saudi
Arabia and the Palestinian Authority, while Hamas has close relations
with Qatar and Turkey.

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always had a fairly
hostile attitude towards Israel, but it became extremely vitriolic
following the 2010 flotilla incident. Erdogan has equated Zionism
with racism, and compared Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
to Hitler.

This attitude has spread to the public. Turkish Jews and Jewish
tourists are experiencing increasing anti-Semitism. According to one
businessman, Turks swear at Jews in the street, and one hotel warned
in response to an e-mail message requesting to book a room that "for
your further safety concerns it is our duty to inform you that the
Palestine embassy is our next door neighbor and we do not have private
security within the hotel." Jewish tourists are being warned
not to visit Turkey.

Erdogan has been prime minister of Turkey since 2003, having been
elected for three terms. Last month, Erdogan won election as
president of Turkey. Ironically, the president has been little more
than a figurehead in the past, but Erdogan plans to expand the powers
of the president so he's more powerful than the prime minister in the
future. He'll be sworn in as president on August 28. Zaman (Istanbul) and Fox News and Algemeiner and Debka

****
**** Turkey gets closer to ISIS and Qatar and splits further with Egypt
****


Map showing Egypt's el-Sisi's trip from Russia to Egypt, avoiding Turkey's and Ukraine's air space (Hurriyet)

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi returned from a visit in Sochi
with Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Relations between Egypt and
Turkey have gotten so bad, the al-Sisi felt that it was unsafe to
travel over Turkey's airspace. His plane also avoided Ukraine's air
space, because of the recent shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight
MH17. So al-Sisi's plane took a hugely circuitous route from Sochi to
Egypt, graphically illustrating how much distance there is between
al-Sisi and Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan is angry that al-Sisi last year ousted Egypt's former
president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government, and
then violently cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood movement,
declaring it a terrorist organization, and killing or jailing
thousands of its members. Erdogan's own AKP party is close to the
Muslim Brotherhood, and Hamas is an offshoot of MB, leaving him
absolutely furious at the current Gaza war. Erdogan has even
furiously blamed Israel for the ouster of Mohamed Morsi, presumably
because it's more politically correct to criticize Israel than to
criticize Egypt.

Turkey, Qatar and Hamas are strengthening their alliance versus
Israel, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia. However,
Turkey is also developing cordial relations with the Islamic State /
of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). This is partly because ISIS is
fighting against Turkey's enemy, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
Another reason is that ISIS is holding as hostages 49 Turkish
diplomats, including Turkey's consul general in Mosul, whose consulate
serves as ISIS's headquarters.

Summary: Turkey + ISIS + Qatar + Hamas VERSUS Egypt + Saudia Arabia +
Palestinian Authority + Israel.

Iran is playing a schizophrenic role in all this. Iran is Turkey's
enemy with regard to Syria's Bashar al-Assad and ISIS, but Iran is
Turkey's ally, along with Hamas, in the Gaza war. As I've written
many times, when Iran is forced to choose sides in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, they will be allied with the west. This is
not simply because Mideast alliances, however. It's because Iran is
closely allied with India and Russia, and they will be enemies of
China and Pakistan. Hurriyet (Ankara) and VOA and War on the Rocks


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Israel, Mavi Marmara, Gaza,
Humanitarian Relief Foundation, IHH, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Benjamin Netanyahu, John Kerry, Barack Obama,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Mohamed Morsi, Vladimir Putin,
Qatar, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, India, Russia, China, Pakistan

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*** 18-Aug-14 World View -- Activists call for U.S. and Britain to partner with al-Assad against ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kurds battle ISIS for strategic Mosul Dam in Iraq
• Activists call for U.S. and Britain to partner with al-Assad against ISIS
• Attack on Ebola clinic in Liberia raises fears of out of control spread

****
**** Kurds battle ISIS for strategic Mosul Dam in Iraq
****


Mosul hydroelectric dam

Kurdish Peshmerga forces say that they are close to taking control of
Iraq's strategic Mosul Dam back from the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS). The Kurds were aided by about two dozen
U.S. airstrikes on ISIS forces, mainly targeting American armed
vehicles and armored personnel carriers that ISIS had captured from
store houses when the Iraq army retreated from Mosul.

In the hands of ISIS, the dam is considered as a "weapon of mass
destruction." If the dam had been blown by ISIS, then the city of
Mosul would have been flooded with water 20-30 meters deep, and
Baghdad would have been flooded with water 5 meters deep three days
later. ISIS would not have been motivated to blow the dam, since
Mosul is ISIS's headquarters. But the fear was that if ISIS was close
to defeat, then they would blow the dam as an act of revenge. And so
recapturing the dam has been a major objective. BBC and
VOA

****
**** Activists call for U.S. and Britain to partner with al-Assad against ISIS
****

With airstrikes having some success against ISIS in Iraq, people in
the U.S. and Britain are calling for similar treatment against ISIS in
Syria. There are two variations to these calls: One variation calls
for supplying weapons to the "moderate" opposition to president Bashar
al-Assad, and the other variation calls for a full-fledged partnership
with al-Assad in defeating ISIS.

Partnering with al-Assad against ISIS would certainly be an amazing
historical twist, since genocidal monster al-Assad actually created
ISIS.

I've been writing about the situation in Syria since the war started
three years ago, and I've repeatedly indicated what disaster it is
that the Alawite/Shia president, Bashar al-Assad, is conducting
genocide against innocent Sunni protesters. And al-Assad was and is
being helped by unlimited amounts of heavy weapons provided by Russia,
making Vladimir Putin a war criminal, along with al-Assad. Al-Assad
has flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's
killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's
killed dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with
barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In
addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation,
starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive
"industrial strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in
fact with encouragement and support from Russia and Iran.

I've been writing about all these acts since the war began, and each
time I've described how the devastating consequences to the region and
world have continued to grow.

In the beginning, in 2011, I was writing that al-Assad was turning
peaceful protests into a full-fledged civil war. Syria is in a
generational Awakening era, so this civil war would never have
developed if al-Assad hadn't forced it. Furthermore, the civil war
would have fizzled quickly if either al-Assad had stepped down, or if
Russia had stopped supplying him with weapons.

By 2012, I was writing about how al-Qaeda linked jihadists from other
countries were coming to Syria to join the fight against al-Assad. By
2013, young men from Sunni Muslim countries from Pakistan to Algeria
to Chechnya were coming to Syria to join the anti-Assad groups.
Jihadist anti-Assad groups were formed, most notably Jabhat al-Nusra
(Islamic Front), which was linked to al-Qaeda and which also linked up
with the dormant al-Qaeda in Iraq.

But another group, which became today's ISIS, broke away from
al-Qaeda, subsumed al-Qaeda in Iraq, and began fighting both al-Assad
and al-Nusra. By 2014, it became increasingly popular with many
would-be jihadists around the world, and now there have been thousands
of young men from Europe and America that have gone to Syria to
develop terrorist skills. These young men are American/European
citizens with clean passports, so they represent the greatest Western
terrorist threat today.

From the beginning, al-Assad was claiming that he wasn't exterminating
innocent Sunni civilians. He claimed that he was fighting al-Qaeda
terrorists. If there ever was an example of self-fulfilling prophecy,
this is it. When he was just murdering innocent protesters, there
were no al-Qaeda terrorists to speak of. Al-Assad created Jabhat
al-Nusra and then ISIS by turning Syria into a global "jihadist
magnet." The result is ISIS is an enormous danger to the region and
to the entire world.

It's not exactly without historical precedent for America to partner
with a genocidal monster. Josef Stalin was a genocidal monster who
starved, executed and slaughter tens of millions of Russian people,
but we partnered with him anyway in World War II, because he was the
lesser of two evils -- Adolf Hitler was a WORSE genocidal monster.

It's far from clear that ISIS can be defeated. Hitler was defeated in
the climax of a generational crisis war during a generational crisis
era. But Syria is in a generational Awakening era. This means that
some level of violence will continue, even if ISIS is defeated, and so
al-Assad and Putin will continue with their program of genocide. The
only things that could have prevented this situation would have been
if al-Assad has been forced to step down during the beginning, or if
Putin had stopped supplying weapons. As things stand now, there's no
hope. Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh) and USA Today and Russia Today and Al Jazeera

****
**** Attack on Ebola clinic in Liberia raises fears of out of control spread
****

Concern that the spread of the Ebola virus in Liberia is out of
control increased on Sunday, after looters attacked an Ebola clinic,
stealing supplies, as well as blood-stained mattresses and sheets.
The attack took place in the West Point district of Monrovia, the
capital city of Liberia. West Point is an extremely crowded slum
area, so the blood-stained bedding presents a real threat of causing
Ebola to spread around the city. 17 Ebola patients left the clinic
after the attack, though authorities have found them and moved them to
a central Monrovia hospital.

In discussing the possibility of an out of control pandemic,
authorities are beginning to make distinctions between West Africa,
especially Liberia, and Western countries. In the United States and
Europe, for example, there are plenty of isolation units and the
public understands the kinds of medical precautions that have to be
taken. And Ebola is not airborne, but is contracted by touching
the fluids of an infected person.

But none of that is true in Liberia. Ignorance about the virus is
extremely high, and people are reluctant to cooperate with health
workers. Many in the public are suspicious of foreign health workers
and believe that it's the health workers that are bringing Ebola to
their villages. Many villages follow ancient burial rituals, without
understanding that an Ebola corpse is extremely contagious. Clinics
and hospitals are crammed full of patients. There's a shortage of
even the most basic supplies, such as rubber gloves. Western health
and aid workers are fleeing the country, for fear of becoming infected
and dying, so there's a massive shortage of doctors and other health
workers.

So it's feared that in Liberia, and possibly in Sierra Leone and
Guinea as well, Ebola really is out of control, and will not be
stopped for many months, until it's completely run its course. That
would mean that sooner or later, everyone in Liberia would be exposed
to the virus. About 50-60% will die, and the rest will live, and will
be immune after that. BBC and Russia Today and
Foreign Policy and Times of India/NYT


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Peshmerga, Mosul dam,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iran,
Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Liberia, Ebola, Morovia, West Point

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*** 19-Aug-14 World View -- Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal
• Hamas cracks down on political enemies in Gaza
• The 'Sadat Gambit' in the 1973 Yom Kippur war
• Kenya will block West African passengers from entering country

****
**** Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal
****


Hamas inspects the home of Hussam Kawasme, which was demolished by Israeli bombs. Kawasme is a suspect in the June West Bank killing of three Israeli teens. That killing triggered the Gaza war. (AFP)

Just before Monday midnight, when the latest Hamas-Israel Gaza
truce was due to expire, the two sides agreed to extend the
truce another 24 hours to continue negotiating a draft deal
being discussed in Cairo.

According to Debka, the provisions of the draft deal include
these terms:

• Extend Palestinian fishing rights.
• Discuss, in a month, building a deep sea port and airport
  in Gaza.
• Israel will waive demilitarization of Gaza.
• Israel will negotiate release of convicted Palestinian
  prisoners from jail.

However, any such deal will have to be approved by Israel's cabinet,
which is very far from certain. Daily Mail (London) and Debka

****
**** Hamas cracks down on political enemies in Gaza
****

Reports have indicated that a major objective of both Egypt and Israel
in a potential peace settlement of the Gaza war is that Mahmoud
Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA or Fatah) would play a major role,
either replacing Hamas as the governing authority in Gaza, or at
least serving as guards at an open Rafah border crossing connecting
Gaza to Egypt. However, these proposals are an existential threat to
Hamas as a political and military organization, so there's never been
any serious chance that they would accept either of them.

The Palestinian factions Hamas and PA/Fatah have been bitter enemies
since Hamas defeated Fatah in a 2008 war that wrested complete control
of Gaza from Fatah. Theoretically, Fatah and Hamas have reconciled
and are part of a "unity government," but unity has always been a
fantasy, and the Gaza war has split them further.

Hamas has been cracking down on political opponents in Gaza for some
time, especially Fatah. But now on Monday, Hamas has placed dozens of
Fatah activists under house arrest, and has shot several in the legs
for not staying indoors. Hamas leaders claim that they had nothing to
do with the actions, and suggested that some Hamas activists had been
acting on their own. This illustrates a major problem with the peace
negotiations in Cairo -- Hamas does not have control of Gaza, or even
its own activists, so it's not capable of making valid commitments.

Separately, reports indicate Israel's security services uncovered a
Hamas plot to violently overthrow the Palestinian Authority in the
West Bank, coupled with large-scale terrorist attacks on Israel. The
report claims that the plot was orchestrated from Istanbul, with the
knowledge of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, AP and Debka

****
**** The 'Sadat Gambit' in the 1973 Yom Kippur war
****

According to a Sunday analysis by Kforce Government Solutions,
Israel's prime minister is determined to avoid a repeat of a trap set
by Egypt's president Anwar Sadat in the 1973 Yom Kippur war with
Israel:

<QUOTE>"Egyptian authorities indicated that today's
negotiations would represent Egypt's final effort to mediate a
lasting ceasefire. All parties appear interested in observing the
ceasefire a day at a time, even in the absence of an omnibus
agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel will not
compromise on the security requirement that the Gaza Strip must be
demilitarized. He also said that Hamas will not be permitted to
obtain a political victory from its military defeat. If Hamas
resumes rocket attacks upon the expiration of the ceasefire,
Netanyahu promised massive retaliation.

What Netanyahu refers to is the Sadat Gambit that motivated the
Yom Kippur War of 1973. Egyptian President Sadat knew that
Egyptian forces could not defeat Israel in a war. The military
objective was to gain enough territory to provide Egypt with
leverage in the peace talks. In other words, lose the war to win
the peace. It worked. Egypt did not with the war, but eventually
became the second largest recipient of US military aid, second
only to Israel.

The Palestinians, according to Netanyahu, tried a scaled back
version of the Sadat Gambit, but failed because they were unable
to cause significant casualties in Israel. The Gambit works when
the side using it achieves sufficient, real battlefield success to
afford it leverage in peace talks. The Palestinians fell short of
attaining leverage because their rockets performed so poorly and
so many Palestinians died.

The Israelis understand that ploy and will deny it to Hamas. The
key point is that Hamas is continuing to fold. It is now willing
to settle for a partial lifting of the Israeli blockade and to
defer discussion of a seaport in Gaza, as long as Israel allows
funds to be transferred by the Palestinian Authority to Hamas to
enable it to pay the bills.

Another way in which Hamas has sustained a setback is that the
Palestinian Authority appears to be asserting more authority over
the negotiations, mostly because of Hamas legendary inability to
govern and because the Authority has money and Hamas is broke.

One or other of the Palestinian groups may be expected to launch
rockets by Tuesday, as a show of defiance. Israel will respond
asymmetrically. The fighting is not finished."<END QUOTE>

KGS NightWatch and Boca Raton News - Oct 9, 1973

****
**** Kenya will block West African passengers from entering country
****

In a new blow to the economy of West Africa, Kenya said on Monday it
will block passengers from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea from
entering Kenya, for fear that they might be carrying the Ebola virus.
This is further isolating the region, threatening shortages of food
and other supplies. The World Bank and the African Development Bank
are planning to provide as much as $260 million in emergency aid.

As we reported yesterday,
fears
have increased that the spread of Ebola is out of control after
looters attacked an Ebola clinic in the densely crowded West Point
district of Monrovia, the capital city. The looters stole
blood-stained sheets and mattresses, putting into danger anyone who
comes into contact with those items. 17 Ebola patients left the
client after the attack.

Reports yesterday indicated that authorities had found the 17 escaped
Ebola patients, and moved them to a central Monrovia hospital.
However, later reports indicate that the escaped patients have not
been found. Also, the Monrovia police have been unable to enter the
clinic, for fear of becoming infected. Once they've received
shipments of protective equipment and suits, they'll be able to deploy
to West Point. Zegabi (Kenya) and Bloomberg and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Hussam Kawasme,
Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Anwar Sadat, Sadat Gambit,
Benjamin Netanyahu,
Kenya, Ebola, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea,
World Bank, African Development Bank, Monrovia, West Point

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I expect to see more of these in Western and "near Eastern" Europe. In particular: The Roman-script-writing countries of Eastern Europe (e.g. "near Eastern" Europe) are now a de facto part of Western Europe. As parts of either the Roman Empire, the Holy Roman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or all three, in the past, these lands were Romanized. They resented the boot of the Cyrillic-script-writing Russians and hold a grudge:

http://www.usnews.com/news/world/art...arade-in-years

Ukraine presents a confounding situation. Ukraine was a contested zone, which has switched hands between West and East repeatedly. They still use Cyrillic script and a good many are Eastern Orthodox. However, Western Christian traditions have made strong inroads and are not "illegal" the way they are in Russia. I suspect that the non-ethnic-Russian Ukranians are essentially Westerners just like the citizens of other "near Eastern" European places.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> I expect to see more of these in Western and "near Eastern"
> Europe. In particular: The Roman-script-writing countries of
> Eastern Europe (e.g. "near Eastern" Europe) are now a de facto
> part of Western Europe. As parts of either the Roman Empire, the
> Holy Roman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or all three, in
> the past, these lands were Romanized. They resented the boot of
> the Cyrillic-script-writing Russians and hold a grudge:

> http://www.usnews.com/news/world/art...arade-in-years

> Ukraine presents a confounding situation. Ukraine was a contested
> zone, which has switched hands between West and East
> repeatedly. They still use Cyrillic script and a good many are
> Eastern Orthodox. However, Western Christian traditions have made
> strong inroads and are not "illegal" the way they are in Russia. I
> suspect that the non-ethnic-Russian Ukranians are essentially
> Westerners just like the citizens of other "near Eastern" European
> places.

Don't Cyrillic alphabets more or less align with Eastern Orthodox
Christianity?

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

...Western Christian traditions have made strong inroads and are not "illegal" the way they are in Russia...

Details, please? What "western christian traditions" are illegal in Russia?
...or, alternatively, what do you mean when you put "illegal" in scare quotes?

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Details, please? What "western christian traditions" are illegal in Russia?
...or, alternatively, what do you mean when you put "illegal" in scare quotes?

Go try and start an Evangelical (or for that matter, Baptist, 7th Day Adventist, etc, etc) church in Russia. See for yourself.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Don't Cyrillic alphabets more or less align with Eastern Orthodox
Christianity?

Yes. You are correct.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Go try and start an Evangelical (or for that matter, Baptist, 7th Day Adventist, etc, etc) church in Russia. See for yourself.

You mean like this one?
or this one?
or this one?
or this one?
or this one?
or this one?
etc...
etc...

TL;DR - you are sorely misinformed.

*** 20-Aug-14 World View -- Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest
• 34 people killed in Central African Republic

****
**** Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest
****


Imran Khan supporters climb on container barricades to reach the 'Red Zone' and the parliament house (Radio Free Asia)

Pakistani opposition leaders Imran Khan and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri
attempted to force prime minister Nawaz Sharif to resign by leading
tens of thousands of anti-government protesters to shut down
Islamabad, the capital city. The police had attempted to block the
protesters by erecting huge walls of shipping containers, but
protesters crossed past them anyway, to enter the "Red Zone" and reach
the parliament. Sharif had ordered the police not to shoot, in order
to prevent violence, but when the protesters reached the Parliament
building, Sharif called out the army.

Khan has been and continues to be a very divisive figure in Pakistan
politics. He launched the march on Monday evening by calling for
"civil disobedience" and taunted the prime minister by saying:

<QUOTE>"Nawaz Sharif, you need to stop hiding behind the
police and army. Face me like a man, and become a real tiger
instead of circus tiger."<END QUOTE>

Actually, it's not clear who's heading up the circus. The Pakistan
stories and editorials that I've reviewed are extremely critical of
Khan. One called Khan a "confused" politician who led a "failed
march," and said that "having abused his democratic rights, whipped up
a crowd into a frenzy for blood, and after breaking faith over his
written assurance to not enter the Red Zone, if protestors are
arrested or violence occurs, the responsibility lies entirely on
Imran’s head."

Imran Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, was one of Pakistan's greatest
cricket players of all time, and was once voted as the "Sexiest Man of
The Year" by Australia Magazine Oz, turned to politics in the 1990s,
and has become extremely colorful and extremely anti-American. He's
claimed that the terrorist attacks in Pakistan were caused by American
drone strikes on Taliban terrorists, and last year he got his
followers to blockade the "Khyber pass," a major route into
Afghanistan. This route was heavily used by Nato forces to truck
equipment between the port of Karachi and Nato bases in Afghanistan,
and is an essential part of the plan to move American and Nato forces
out of Afghanistan by the end of the year. The blockade finally ended
in February.

Sharif won the vote last year in an election that was widely described
as fair. It was the first election in Pakistan's history that would
lead to first peaceful transition from one civilian government to
another, with the highest election turnout in decades.

However, there's a question whether Sharif will remain in office for
his full five-year term. The army has ruled Pakistan for about half
of its 65 year history, and in recent months there have been rumors of
a new army coup, as the army has been getting impatient with civilian
rule. By having to call out the army to quell Khan's protest, Sharif
has had to give up some power. According to one unnamed government
source, "The military does not intend to carry out a coup but ... if
the government wants to get through its many problems and the four
remaining years of its term, it has to share space with the army,"
meaning that Sharif will have to focus narrowly on domestic political
affairs, and leave security and strategic policy to the army.
Daily Times (Pakistan) and Pak Observer and
Reuters

****
**** 34 people killed in Central African Republic
****


Sister Marie-Clémentine Anuarite Nengapeta, hanging in the Catholic mission in Grimari, C.A.R. (Maverick)

Although the Central African Republic has been out of the news lately,
thanks to the crises in Gaza, Iraq and Ukraine, the generational
crisis war that we've described in the past is continuing with full
force. Last week, fighters from Seleka, along with some herders and
some Fulani, attacked villages located about 220 miles north of the
capital city, Bangui, killing about 34 people. The villages lie along
the informal border between the Muslim-dominated north and the
Christian south. In response, the opposing "anti-balaka" militias
carried out their own wave of sectarian killings, pushing thousands
of Muslims northwards.

As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.

The new war began last year when Muslim Seleka militias began
committing atrocities. French Foreign Legion troops arrived to disarm
the Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias
"rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities this year,
for revenge. Thousands of French and African Union peacekeeping
forces have succeeded in bring the fighting under control in Bangui,
but its spread north and east to villages far beyond the grasp of the
peacekeeping troops. As we've said repeatedly, whether it's in the
headlines or not, this is a generational crisis war, and it will not
end until it's run its course. Reuters and Daily Maverick (South Africa)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri,
Nawaz Sharif,
Central African Republic, Bangui, Seleka, anti-balaka,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle

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Here is a plan to deal with any and all Anti Western fiends, be they those who shoot down airliners, those who behead journalists and all other scum. Western governments and their allies elsewhere are hamstrung by domestic opposition to war, irrational hatred of Israel, and other factors. Therefore, a different solution that does not rely on official government delivered warfare is needed. Namely, crowd funded Letters of Marque. This could get very creative. For example, one could crowd fund a project whereby teams would compete to get themselves into the area controlled by ISIS/ISIL, conduct a lightning raid consisting of a tactical team that sweeps in with Samurai swords, beheads 10 fiends, brings the heads as proof to an 3rd party certification body, etc. The award for success of Marque would then be collected.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> Here is a plan to deal with any and all Anti Western fiends, be
> they those who shoot down airliners, those who behead journalists
> and all other scum. Western governments and their allies elsewhere
> are hamstrung by domestic opposition to war, irrational hatred of
> Israel, and other factors. Therefore, a different solution that
> does not rely on official government delivered warfare is
> needed. Namely, crowd funded Letters of Marque. This could get
> very creative. For example, one could crowd fund a project whereby
> teams would compete to get themselves into the area controlled by
> ISIS/ISIL, conduct a lightning raid consisting of a tactical team
> that sweeps in with Samurai swords, beheads 10 fiends, brings the
> heads as proof to an 3rd party certification body, etc. The award
> for success of Marque would then be collected.

The president didn't mention that in his press announcement half an
hour ago. Perhaps it could be launched with Michele holding up a sign
with the hash tag #CrowdFundKillISIS.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Here is a plan to deal with any and all Anti Western fiends, be they those who shoot down airliners, those who behead journalists and all other scum. Western governments and their allies elsewhere are hamstrung by domestic opposition to war, irrational hatred of Israel, and other factors. Therefore, a different solution that does not rely on official government delivered warfare is needed. Namely, crowd funded Letters of Marque. This could get very creative. For example, one could crowd fund a project whereby teams would compete to get themselves into the area controlled by ISIS/ISIL, conduct a lightning raid consisting of a tactical team that sweeps in with Samurai swords, beheads 10 fiends, brings the heads as proof to an 3rd party certification body, etc. The award for success of Marque would then be collected.

That's hardly a novel idea. Jim Bell proposed it back in '95.

The risk, of course, is that what goes around sometimes comes around.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

That's hardly a novel idea. Jim Bell proposed it back in '95.

The risk, of course, is that what goes around sometimes comes around.

Well in any case I would not be surprised for the Letter of Marque and Reprisal concept to be renewed in a more modern format. The rewards probably outweigh the risks.

*** 21-Aug-14 World View -- Australian MP Clive Palmer shocks country with anti-China rant

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Riots in Liberia after Ebola slum is blockaded
• Australian MP Clive Palmer shocks country with anti-China rant
• Invasion of Libya feared following mysterious bombing of Tripoli

****
**** Riots in Liberia after Ebola slum is blockaded
****


A health worker disinfects a corpse in an Ebola isolation ward, once a primary school, in Monrovia (National Geographic)

Liberian police and soldiers exchanged fire with residents of the
densely populated West Point seaside slum, in Monrovia, the capital of
Liberia, after security forces blocked roads leading in and out of the
slum and a coast guard boat patrolled the waters offshore. Security
forces also blocked off the Waterside Market, one of Monrovia's key
market places, due to its proximity to the slum.

It's feared that Ebola is spreading rapidly out of control within the
slum, after looters attacked an Ebola clinic
last week, stealing supplies and blood-stained sheets and
mattresses, permitting 37 Ebola patients to leave the clinic. There
are 50-75,000 residents trapped within the West Point area.

Barricading an area to prevent people from leaving and spreading
disease is sometimes called a cordon sanitaire.

During the Black Death bubonic plague epidemic, which spread through
Italy in late 1347, victims of the plague would be sealed in their
houses, locked and bolted from the outside. They could receive food
only by lowering a basket from an upper window, allowing someone to
put food into it.

During the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, many families would lock
themselves in their own homes to avoid getting exposed.

It's doubtful that Monrovia's cordon sanitaire will prevent the
further spread of Ebola. Many health officials are concerned that
it's already too late to stop Ebola in Liberia, and that the disease
won't be stopped until it's fully run its course. News24 (South Africa) and Daily Mail (London) and Temple University and New Republic

****
**** Australian MP Clive Palmer shocks country with anti-China rant
****

MP and business mogul Clive Palmer has shocked Australia with some
rather raw remarks about the Chinese. He was appearing on a TV talk
show, and was asked about a corruption charge by a Chinese company.
He said, "It's not true, it's false," and said the Chinese wanted to
take over Australian ports and control Australian resources, and
added:

<QUOTE>"I don’t mind standing up against the Chinese bastards
and stopping them from doing it."<END QUOTE>

He startled the audience by calling the Chinese "mongrels," and said,

<QUOTE>"I’m saying that because they’re communist, because
they shoot their own people, they haven’t got a justice system and
they want to take over this country."<END QUOTE>

Later, he tweeted a clarification: "My #qanda comments not intended to
refer to Chinese people but to Chinese company which is taking
Australian resources & not paying#auspol."

The Chinese embassy said Palmer’s words were "full of of ignorance and
prejudice," and added,

<QUOTE>"We believe that a sound China-Australian relationship
serves the fundamental interests of both countries. It is and
always will be supported by the two peoples."<END QUOTE>

Australian politicians called the remarks "hugely damaging" to
Australia and to Australia-China relations. Foreign Minister Julie
Bishop described the rant as "offensive, unnecessary and unacceptable
for a member of Parliament."

No one is defending the "mongrel" characterization, but many people,
including me, have repeatedly pointed out that China is openly
preparing for a pre-emptive attack and war with America, and therefore
with America's allies including Australia.

Colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie defended Palmer, saying, that she
"strongly supports" Palmer's "general point ... about communist
China's military capacity and threat to Australia." She added,

<QUOTE>"If there’s one thing I’ve learnt after serving my
country in the Australian defense force for 11 years and listening
closely to our veterans, it’s this: the price of liberty is
eternal vigilance.

If anybody thinks that we should have a national security and
defense policy, which ignores the threat of a Chinese communist
invasion – you’re delusional and got rocks in your
head."<END QUOTE>

Sydney Morning Herald and Guardian (London)

****
**** Invasion of Libya feared following mysterious bombing of Tripoli
****

In the early hours of Monday morning, air strikes bombed militia bases
in Tripoli, the capital city of Libya. The bombed the militia base
that had been used to launch bombs on the nearby Tripoli airport.

The problem is: Nobody seems to know whose war planes they are. They
were precision laser-guided strikes in the middle of the night, and
Libya doesn't have warplanes with that technology or which can operate
at night. Renegade former army general Khalifa Hifter (or Hafter) is
far away in the eastern part of the country, and his war planes can't
refuel in the air. Nonetheless, it's suspected that he's somehow
behind the attacks.

There's no doubt that the air strikes took place, and the fear is that
some third party was behind the strikes. Italy and France have
quickly and vehemently denied that they were involved. It's possible
that the war planes were from Algeria or Egypt. Nato, which monitors
Libyan air space, will probably know. The fear is that, whoever it
was, there's more to come, and that there may be an invasion coming.
Middle East Eye


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Liberia, Monrovia, West Point,
Waterside Market, cordon sanitaire, Black Death, Italy, Spanish Flu,
Australia, Clive Palmer, China, Julie Bishop, Jacqui Lambie,
Libya, Tripoli, Khalifa Hifter, Italy, France, Nato,
Algeria, Egypt

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If china advanced into the pacific, How would they be able to reach Australia without conquering mainland southeast Asia and Indonesia beforehand? Wouldn't they have to wait until after those countries are conquered before they could contemplate an invasion of Australia? Taiwan logically worries that china would soon have the capability to conquer it, but Taiwan is right next to china. Also Taiwan would have to be conquered to even open up mainland southeast Asia for Chinese conquest. You imply that any threat from china would be more dangerous to countries farther away than it is to the countries that directly border china. If china ever decides to seek "lebensraum", while the entire international community would have to increase their vigilance: wouldn't the countries that share direct borders with china would have to worry about the threat the most?

Another Issue is that Your theory that Russia and Iran would be western allies does not make sense because China's claimed national territories do not require a full-scale war to be conquered unless your referring to eastern Siberia, or possibly taiwan. A true Third world war would require the war to be carried on the basis of some larger overarching ideology or plan, rather than merely securing lost local traditional interests for china. A Sino-Russian-Iranian Alliance for world conquest would provide a overarching basis and motivation to wage a total war.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> If china advanced into the pacific, How would they be able to
> reach Australia without conquering mainland southeast Asia and
> Indonesia beforehand? Wouldn't they have to wait until after those
> countries are conquered before they could contemplate an invasion
> of Australia? Taiwan logically worries that china would soon have
> the capability to conquer it, but Taiwan is right next to
> china. Also Taiwan would have to be conquered to even open up
> mainland southeast Asia for Chinese conquest. You imply that any
> threat from china would be more dangerous to countries farther
> away than it is to the countries that directly border china. If
> china ever decides to seek "lebensraum", while the entire
> international community would have to increase their vigilance:
> wouldn't the countries that share direct borders with china would
> have to worry about the threat the most?

> Another Issue is that Your theory that Russia and Iran would be
> western allies does not make sense because China's claimed
> national territories do not require a full-scale war to be
> conquered unless your referring to eastern Siberia, or possibly
> taiwan. A true Third world war would require the war to be carried
> on the basis of some larger overarching ideology or plan, rather
> than merely securing lost local traditional interests for china. A
> Sino-Russian-Iranian Alliance for world conquest would provide a
> overarching basis and motivation to wage a total war.

In a preemptive war by the Chinese, it's unlikely that Australia would
be the first target. An initial invasion of the Philippines is more
likely, in order to secure the shipping lanes in the South China Sea.
Australia would be a target soon after, however, in order to secure
Australia's mines, which are a major source of commodities needed by
China's economy. It's also possible that a war would begin between
India and Pakistan, and go on from there. China would be allied with
Pakistan, and India would be allied with Russia and Iran.

As for the "larger overarching ideology or plan,", think World War I,
not World War II. The Russians and the Chinese can't stand each
other.

*** 22-Aug-14 World View -- Hamas says it didn't intend to start the Gaza War

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas says it didn't intend to start the Gaza War
• Tunisia and Egypt cancel passenger flights to Libya

****
**** Hamas says it didn't intend to start the Gaza War
****

The current Gaza war was triggered by events following the abduction
of three Israeli teenagers on June 10. They were the subject of an
extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of
Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel was
shocked three weeks later, when the teens were found dead in a pit in
the West Bank. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on
Monday that the three were "kidnapped and murdered in cold blood by
animals" and promised: "Hamas will pay." The abduction of the three
teens started a spiral of violence that led to the current Gaza war,
with no end in sight.

Now a Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri, is confirming that Hamas was
responsible for the kidnappings, but said that there was no intention
to start a war. Here's Memri's translation of what he said:

<QUOTE>"In all honesty, we in the Islamic resistance movement
did not intend to start a large-scale war at this time. We know
that the enemy was not ready to start a large-scale war
either. But Allah decided that this large-scale war would rage, in
order to achieve things in accordance with the will of Allah.

We wanted Gaza to serve as a strategic pillar, and to continue to
amass strength in order to support the resistance all over
Palestine. We wanted to activate the resistance throughout the
land of Palestine: in the West Bank and in Jerusalem. ...

Our goal was to ignite an intifada in the West Bank and Jerusalem,
as well as within the 1948 borders. The activity of the people has
broadened to include all the occupied land, reaching its peak in
the heroic operation, carried out by the Al-Qassam Brigades, in
which three settlers were captured in Hebron.

There has been a lot of confusion regarding this operation. Some
said that this was a conspiracy of the occupation. That's not
true. Your brothers in the Al-Qassam Brigades carried out this
operation to support their imprisoned brothers, who were on a
hunger strike. The occupation wanted us to watch them die and to
do nothing. The mujahideen captured these settlers in order to
have a swap deal.

Then Israel wanted to strike a harsh blow to the resistance in the
West Bank and Gaza, in order to shock the mujahideen and deter
them from engaging in Jihad against the occupation. So it began to
bombard Gaza, and to conduct arrests and wreak devastation in the
West Bank.

But in these bombings, they killed six mujahideen. Thus, the
fighting escalated. The mujahideen retaliated with missile strikes
in the heart of the occupying entity. They were forced to escalate
the fighting, and thus, an all-out war began.<END QUOTE>

So, according to al-Arouri, Hamas didn't want to start a war. They
want to start an "intifida," like the ones that began in 1987 and
2000. They were characterized by Palestinians rioting, and throwing
rocks at Israeli police, and an occasional terrorist act. But there
was no full-fledged war, because there were Israeli and Palestinian
leaders who were committed to avoiding a war.

This situation is exactly what generational theory is all about.

Everybody -- politicians, analysts, journalists, etc. -- remember
the 1990s, and think that the 1990s was "normal," and that anything
we do will work the same way as in the "normal" times. The belief
is completely wrong. During the 1990s, the world was being run
by people who had survived World War II and been traumatized
by the war, and vowed never to let anything like that happen again.
Today, those survivors are gone.

Here's what I wrote in May, 2003, in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?":

<QUOTE>"We are now in the early stages of replaying the
extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the
Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So
far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as
it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is
awaiting a generational change.

There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that
the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon
and Yassir Arafat.

These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating
with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast
conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and
neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And
it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.

The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall
generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major
conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the
disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the
election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's
currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is
this: Be careful what you wish for.)"<END QUOTE>

So in the current situation, we have Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri
saying that all they had wanted to do was repeat the "intifidas" of
1987 and 2000. Well, that's not how it works any more, because we're
in a different generational era -- a generational Crisis era, quite
unlike the generational Unraveling era of the 1990s, when the mood was
to avoid conflict if at all possible.

Today, the mood of the Palestinians and the Israelis is completely
different. Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat are gone, and the
leaders on both sides have no fear of violence, and no appreciation
of what's coming.

It's worth noting that there's still one leader who is a survivor of
the 1940s war between Jews and Arabs, and that person is Palestinian
Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. It's no coincidence that this
leader has for years tried both to negotiate peace with the Israelis
and to keep Hamas under control. He's failed in both endeavors
because he's dealing with much younger leaders who have no fear of
violence.

Most people assume that the 2000s are like the 1990s, the 90s are
like the 80s, the 80s are like the 70s, and so forth. If you
believe that, then you're wrong.

History is not similar from one decade to the next. History
is driven by huge generational tsunamis that last for decades and
even centuries. These tsunamis dictate what events are going
to occur, and the politicians have little control over more
than a few details.

World War II launched a huge tsunami that's been traveling towards us
for decades, and is reaching us now. That's why there are trouble
spots in one country after another, in Africa, the Mideast, in Europe
and in Asia. And every day there are fewer and fewer people around
like Mahmoud Abbas who remember what it was like and want to prevent
it from happening again. It's only a matter of time before one of
these trouble spots explodes into full-scale war, and such an
explosion becomes more and more likely every day, as the WW II
survivors disappear. Memri and
Reuters

****
**** Tunisia and Egypt cancel passenger flights to Libya
****

As we reported yesterday,

warplanes bombed militia bases in Tripoli, the capital city of Libya,
in the early morning hours of Monday. The problem is, it's not known
whose warplanes they were. The laser-guided technology was too
sophisticated for any Libyan warplanes, and France, Italy, Egypt, the
U.S. and Nato have all vehemently denied having anything to do with
it. There are even concerns that the warplanes will be part of an
external invasion of Libya.

Now on Thursday Tunisia and Egypt are halting passenger airline
flights to and from Libya for security reasons. Egypt has canceled
flights between Cairo and Libya, although flights between Alexandria
and Libya would continue. AP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, Saleh al-Arouri, Arial Sharon, Yasser Arafat,
Libya, Tunisia, Egypt

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*** 23-Aug-14 World View -- Who's to blame for the rise of ISIS?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese fighter jet buzzes U.S. surveillance plane in international waters
• Who's to blame for the rise of ISIS?
• In major escalation, Russia moves trucks, troops, artillery into Ukraine

****
**** Chinese fighter jet buzzes U.S. surveillance plane in international waters
****


Photo taken on Tuesday by surveillance plane of Chinese J-11 fighter jet conducting a 'dangerous intercept' of the surveillance plane (DOD)

The Obama administration is launching a protest to China, after a
Chinese fighter plane made three passes dangerously near a
U.S. surveillance plane in international waters.

The incident is reminiscent of an April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese
F-8 interceptor crashed into a U.S. surveillance aircraft off the
southern China coast. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and
its crew was killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on
China's Hainan Island, and its 24 crew members were imprisoned for 10
days.

In the current incident, a Chinese J-11 fighter jet, a version of the
Russian SU-27, made three passes dangerously near the U.S. plane, and
zoomed directly in front of the Navy plane at a 90-degree angle to
reveal its belly, which was packed with weaponry, according to a
Pentagon spokesman. At one point the Chinese warplane flew alongside
the Navy aircraft, putting their wingtips as close as 30 feet
apart. The encounter ended with the Chinese pilot doing a barrel roll
over the top of the U.S. plane. Stars and Stripes and Washington Free Beacon

****
**** Who's to blame for the rise of ISIS?
****

Politicians in Washington are scrambling to explain why they didn't
foresee the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS). Apparently the White House talking points are that when
President Obama referred in January to ISIS as "a JV [junior varsity]
team," it's because no one could foresee what would happen in the
eight months since then.

In 2011, when Syria's Alawite/Shia president Bashar al-Assad started
exterminating innocent Sunni women and children, it was obvious to me
and everyone that something was going to happen. As time went on,
al-Assad turned Syria into a global "jihadist magnet," drawing
jihadists and would-be jihadists from around the world. I wrote about
that constantly, and how dangerous it was. No matter how obvious,
Washington is filled with highly paid analysts and experts and
politicians who apparently were incapable of seeing that coming.

Navi Pillay, the U.N.'s High commissioner for human rights, says that
it was pretty obvious to her as well. On Friday, she strongly
criticized the Security Council for allowing the situation in Syria to
"metastasize" out of control:

<QUOTE>"Short term geopolitical considerations and national
interests, narrowly defined, have repeatedly taken precedence over
intolerable human suffering and grave breaches of and long term
threats to international peace and security. I firmly believe
that greater responsiveness by this council would have saved
hundreds of thousands of lives. ...

[Syria's conflict] is metastasizing outwards in an uncontrollable
process whose eventual limits we cannot predict."<END QUOTE>

This remark was clearly intended to condemn Russia, not only for
vetoing any attempt to even criticize al-Assad for trying to
exterminate Sunnis, but even to provide a continuing supply of heavy
weapons so that he can do the job more thoroughly. She stated the
consequences of the Security Council's inaction, and she used a phrase
that's worth remembering: Syria's conflict "is metastasizing outwards
in an uncontrollable process whose eventual limits we cannot predict."

So now panic is setting in the White House -- panic that they're going
to be blamed for doing nothing. The White House said on Friday that
the U.S. would do "whatever it takes" to stop ISIS. They were talking
about using air strikes to defeat ISIS, as they've been doing in Iraq
for several weeks. But every analyst I heard said that ISIS would
never be defeated with air power alone, and ISIS would never be
defeated unless it were attacked in Syria, as well as Iraq.

So the White House sees itself being dragged back into an Iraq war,
but this time involving Syria as well. The White House sees
this as politically damaging to them.

The White House refused to exclude air strikes in Syria as well,
raising the possibility of partnering up with the genocidal monster
Bashar al-Assad to fight ISIS. Several analysts have pointed out that
the Syrian regime has very sophisticated anti-aircraft capabilities,
and there's a real risk that an American warplane would be shot down.

The larger picture is that in this generational Crisis era, there's a
kind of "ping-pong escalation" going on. Each entity does something
to raise the stakes, and then the other side has to go even farther.
The is the "regeneracy" process described by generational theory.
There is no realistic scenario that I'm aware of that would defeat
ISIS without a full-scale war in Iraq and Syria. "Whatever it takes"
is going to be a very great deal indeed.

The same kind of ping-pong escalation is going on in the Gaza war.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that Hamas "would
pay a heavy price" for the death of a four year old Israeli boy on
Thursday, killed by a Hamas rocket from Gaza. An Israeli air strike
on Thursday killed three top Hamas military advisers. Hamas promised
revenge, even against its own people -- Hamas killed 18 Palestinian
"collaborators" in Gaza.

There's little doubt where all this is going -- full-scale war in the
Mideast. What a lot of politicians are worried about today is who is
going to get the blame. Guardian (London)

****
**** In major escalation, Russia moves trucks, troops, artillery into Ukraine
****

Nato is reporting that Russian troops have moved artillery across the
border into eastern Ukraine and are firing on the Ukrainian military
from inside Ukraine's borders. This is a major escalation by Russia,
and threatens a larger war between Ukraine and Russia. It's been
known for some time that Russia has been surreptitiously supplying to
the pro-Russian separatist militias heavy weapons, including the
surface-to-air missiles that the separatists used to shoot down the
Malaysian Airlines flight 17 passenger plane.

At the same time, Russia's massive 280-truck "humanitarian convoy"
moved across the border from Russia into Ukraine, without the
permission of the Ukraine government. The convoy was supposed to be
coordinated with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
who would take responsibility for overseeing the distribution of aid,
but the convoy no longer has any connection with the ICRC. Ukraine's
government is calling this a "direct invasion."

Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen issued the strongest
condemnation yet of Russia's actions:

<QUOTE>"I condemn the entry of a Russian so-called
humanitarian convoy into Ukrainian territory without the consent
of the Ukrainian authorities and without any involvement of the
International Committee of the Red Cross. This is a blatant breach
of Russia’s international commitments, including those made
recently in Berlin and Geneva, and a further violation of
Ukraine’s sovereignty by Russia. It can only deepen the crisis in
the region, which Russia itself has created and has continued to
fuel. The disregard of international humanitarian principles
raises further questions about whether the true purpose of the aid
convoy is to support civilians or to resupply armed separatists.

These developments are even more worrying as they coincide with a
major escalation in Russian military involvement in Eastern
Ukraine since mid-August, including the use of Russian forces. In
addition, Russian artillery support – both cross-border and from
within Ukraine – is being employed against the Ukrainian armed
forces. We have also seen transfers of large quantities of
advanced weapons, including tanks, armored personnel carriers,
and artillery to separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine. Moreover,
NATO is observing an alarming build-up of Russian ground and air
forces in the vicinity of Ukraine."<END QUOTE>

Rassmussen added that, "Instead of de-escalating the situation, Russia
continues to escalate it."

Russia responded in the U.N. Security Council by criticizing
Lithuania, a temporary member. for having requested an emergency
meeting to discuss Ukraine, and for systematically opposing Russian
initiatives. According to Russia's U.N. ambassador Vitaly Churkin:

<QUOTE>"At times it seems there is no clear chain of command
in Kiev, because some assurances are given (to Russia) at a very
high level and then others do not give the orders which are
required ... by the border police to let the (aid) trucks in.
That game could not continue indefinitely."

"We waited long enough and it was time to move," he added. "And
this is what we did."<END QUOTE>

Washinton Post and Nato News and
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, J-11 fighter jet,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Navi Pillay,
Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC,
Nato, Russia, Ukraine, Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
Vitaly Churkin

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