Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

That's a really weird video. The accompanying text is in Vietnamese.
The video was posted today, but there are no days or dates mentioned
in the audio or displayed in the video. It may be a pirated video
several days old.

Sure, except that it talks about stuff that happened yesterday. So it could be the psychic version of CNN.
As to the accompanying text.... have you ever been anywhere, ever? Are you aware that there is such a thing as "CNN International"? And that it broadcasts in places where not everyone speaks American (really! Like seriously, not even a single word! Only like some wierd 'wokka bokka bokka' noises!)?

In any case, what it shows is pretty clear -- so much so that even CNN wasn't able to miss it or spin it out. The assertions you are regurgitating do not correspond to reality. You are being lied to.

The Russians have already admitted that there are thousands of Russian
soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Those thousands of Russian soldiers
aren't going to be sitting on their hands. They're going to be
preparing to join the local forces in overrunning Mariupol. Russian
and pro-Russian are all the same. You are completely full of crap.

Once again, who's lying to me -- you, or the rest of the world? I
don't make stuff up (which you do). I quote the BBC, CNN and
sometimes even Russian media. Are all those media sources lying? I
don't think so. You're no different than a paid Russian troll who's
paid to lie, and you're lying. I've never lied, and don't believe
that the whole world is lying to me.

** 15-Aug-14 World View -- Russia threatens to invade Ukraine from East and West
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...15.htm#e140815

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The Russians have already admitted that there are thousands of Russian
soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

Holy crap. It's like you're trying to outdo all your previous disingenuousness.
The Russian government has stated all along that thousands of Russian citizens have gone to Ukraine to fight for their relatives and until-recently-countrymen. That is, Russian citizens acting in the capacity of soldiers of the LNR/DNR militias. The Russian government has consistently denied -- and nobody has yet been able to generate a single piece of fact or evidence contradicting their denial* -- that Russian soldiers (which is to say, people members of the Russian armed forces) are active in Ukraine.

Once again, who's lying ...

You. When a person says something that contradicts facts of which they are aware, the name for that is lying. It's what you do, and your record of it here more than speaks for itself.

----
*eventually, we're left to conclude that they don't show any because there isn't any. or not, if you prefer to double-down on the lie.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> Holy crap. It's like you're trying to outdo all your previous
> disingenuousness. The Russian government has stated all
> along that thousands of Russian citizens have gone to Ukraine
> to fight for their relatives and until-recently-countrymen. That
> is, Russian citizens acting in the capacity of soldiers of the
> LNR/DNR militias. The Russian government has consistently
> denied -- and nobody has yet been able to generate a single piece
> of fact or evidence contradicting their denial* -- that Russian
> soldiers (which is to say, people members of the Russian armed
> forces) are active in Ukraine. You. When a person says something
> that contradicts facts of which they are aware, the name for that
> is lying. It's what you do, and your record of it here more than
> speaks for itself.

> ---- *eventually, we're left to conclude that they don't show any
> because there isn't any. or not, if you prefer to double-down on
> the lie.

>

Originally Posted by Aleksandr Zakharchenko

> Aleksandr Zakharchenko, a rebel commander and the prime minister
> of the Donetsk People's Republic, stated in an interview on
> Russian television that the Russians who are fighting Ukraine are
> simply on "vacation."

> "There are active soldiers fighting among us who preferred to
> spend their vacation not on the beach, but with us, among their
> brothers, who are fighting for their freedom," Zakharchenko said
> on state-run television satellite channel Rossiya 24. He reported
> that as many as 4,000 Russians, including former soldiers, are
> fighting Ukraine's government forces. "Many of them have gone
> home, but the majority have remained here," Zakharchenko
> said. "Unfortunately, some have been killed."

http://theweek.com/speedreads/index/...st-on-vacation

As usual, you're completely full of crap. But, if you like, I'm
willing to concede that the crap you're full of is holy crap.

*** 1-Sep-14 World View -- Israel infuriates Palestinians by claiming West Bank land for settlements

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukrainian naval vessel attack from shore by anti-government militias
• Pakistan's army issues a veiled threat to politicians
• Israel infuriates Palestinians by claiming West Bank land for settlements

****
**** Ukrainian naval vessel attack from shore by anti-government militias
****


Gloating Vladimir Putin calls for 'statehood' for eastern Ukraine (AP)

Anti-government militias in eastern Ukraine, supported by thousands of
Russian soldiers (supposedly "on vacation"), along with Russian
weapons and armor, fired from the shore on a Ukrainian ship off the
coast of Mariupol, in the Sea of Azov, damaging it. The Russian
militia leader Igor Strelkov bragged, "The militia have dealt the
enemy their first naval defeat." Strelkov is the same Russian leader
who bragged about shooting down the Malaysian Airlines passenger plane
with a Russian-supplied Buk missile system, before he realized it
wasn't a warplane.

Ukrainian forces in the port city of Mariupol continue to brace
themselves for an expected full-scale attack by Russian forces on the
city. It's feared that Russian troops will join with troops already
in Crimea, continue all the way to Odessa, and connect with separatist
Moldovans in Transnistria in eastern Moldova.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin continued his pattern of threatening
statements by demanding on Sunday that "Novorossia" be granted
statehood. Novorossia is the anti-Ukraine word for eastern and
southern Ukraine. On Friday, Putin said, "[I]t's best not to mess
with us. ... I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading
nuclear powers."

The Russian invasion and threats come as European leaders are in
Brussels commemorating the 75th anniversary of Hitler's invasion of
Poland. According to Britain's prime minister David Cameron, ""We
know from European history the danger of the territorial integrity of
a nation state being threatened and undermined in this way." VOA and Moscow Times and Reuters

****
**** Pakistan's army issues a veiled threat to politicians
****

Pakistan's opposition party politician Imran Khan, the former cricket
superstar turned anti-American politician, called for continued riots
and demonstrations, as did Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, another opposition
party politician. But after a violent Saturday evening, when hundreds
were injured, Sunday's protests were relatively quiet and non-violent,
although many Islooites (residents of Islamabad) stayed indoor for
fear of their safety. The objective of the riots is to force the
resignation of prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who won a landslide
election last year in May.

There is increasing fear that the army is planning to take control of
the government through a coup. There was an emergency meeting of army
commanders on Sunday afternoon. The army issued a statement after the
meeting affirming their support for democracy, but indicating that
they wouldn't tolerate anything that risks the security of the state:

<QUOTE>"While reaffirming support to democracy, the
conference reviewed with serious concern, the existing political
crisis and the violent turn it has taken, resulting in large scale
injuries and loss of lives. Further use of force will only
aggravate the problem.

It was once again reiterated that the situation should be resolved
politically without wasting any time and without recourse to
violent means.

Army remains committed to playing its part in ensuring security of
the state and will never fall short of meeting national
aspirations."<END QUOTE>

Imran Khan and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri are widely believed to have
overreached themselves, but many feel that the government and the army
have also acted poorly. The News (Pakistan) and Guardian (London) and BBC and Pakistan Inter-Services Public Relations

****
**** Israel infuriates Palestinians by claiming West Bank land for settlements
****

Israel is changing the status of 400 hectares of West Bank land so
that it will be eligible for building Jewish settler homes. The land
had previously been listed as survey land, a designation that
prevented settlement building. The action infuriated officials in the
Palestinian Authority. Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat said:

<QUOTE>"The Israeli government is committing various crimes
against the Palestinian people and their occupied land. The
international community should hold Israel accountable as soon as
possible for its crimes and raids against our people in Gaza and
the ongoing Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank and east
Jerusalem."<END QUOTE>

Jerusalem Post and Deutsche Welle



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Mariupol, Sea of Azov,
Igor Strelkov, Vladimir Putin, Novorossia, David Cameron,
Pakistan, Imran Khan, Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, Nawaz Sharif,
Israel, West Bank, Palestinian Authority, Saeb Erekat

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

http://theweek.com/speedreads/index/...st-on-vacation

As usual, you're completely full of crap. But, if you like, I'm
willing to concede that the crap you're full of is holy crap.

Still trying to weasel away from conceding you've been caught in yet another falsehood? I mean, first it was that there were journalists on the ground in Eastern Ukraine confirming the unsubstantiated assertions made by all manner of known liars. You exposed that lie yourself when you failed to find a single instance of such a thing, though the final nail was driven in when I supplied the reporting from journalists who actually were doing what you claimed, and whose investigation in fact falisified the known liars' unsubstantiated assertions.

Then you try to claim that the Russian government said a thing which not only have you been unable to provide evidence that it said -- in fact the things it has said were very much not the thing you claimed it said.

And now, you're trying to claim that the words you quoted say something other than what they say. To repeat from the quote: "He reported that as many as 4,000 Russians, including former soldiers, are fighting Ukraine's government forces."
All along it has been openly acknowledged that Russian citizens in their own private capacity have been coming to Donbass to fight alongside their friends, relatives, and former countrymen. Among those citizens are, naturally, some who had previously served in the armed forces (both the USSR and the RF practice conscription, so the 'former soldier' moniker is one that applies to well over a majority of Russian citizens).
You, however, present us with the outrageous lie that, rather than openly acknowledging the presence of Russian citizens fighting in Ukraine on their own time and initiative, somehow the very clear words you quote mean the direct opposite of what they say... that somehow they mean that Russian soldiers, acting at the behest of the Russian government, are engaged in fighting against Ukraine. And that the Ukrainian and LNR/DNR governments have only-just-recently admitted to that. Of course, neither the admission, nor the substance to which they would be admitting, have happened. And what few pieces of actual reality you have tried to toss up to support your claim* otherwise do anything but prove your lies out for what they are.

-----
*this confuses me quite a bit, to be honest. don't you even read the things you link to or quote? how can you have missed the fact that they at best don't support what you are claiming, and far more often actually refute it. were I conspiracy-minded, I'd wonder if you aren't a fifth columnist for Dugin or Zhirinovsky, trying to discredit the anti-Russia side. you certainly do a good job of it...

Thousands of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine, whether "on vacation"
or under orders, is still an invasion of Ukraine by Russian soldiers.

And I don't believe the "on vacation" crap anyway.

You always demand that I prove everything. So prove that these
thousands of Russian soldiers are "on vacation", rather than under
orders.

Of course you can't. You are completely full of crap.

Let's play count-the-lies with your first paragraph, eh?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Anti-government militias in eastern Ukraine, supported by thousands of
Russian soldiers

Bing! The thousands of Russian citizens are not soldiers. At most, you could call them 'former soldiers', since there's that whole mandatory service thing in the RF (and USSR before it). That's one

(supposedly "on vacation")

Bing! As private citizens operating on their own initiative and unpaid, the Russian citizens fighting in Ukraine undisputably are on leave from their jobs or school. "on vacation" is a pure statement-of-fact, and an uncontroversial one at that. That's two.

, along with Russian weapons and armor,

Bing! The types of weapons and armor used by all parties in the conflict in Ukraine are exactly the same. To call them "Russian" is to falsely attribute. The bulk of the heavy equipment currently operated by the DNR militias was seized during the liquidation of several encircled Ukrainian army brigades over July and August. Remember the ~400 Ukrainian soldiers who fled into Russia and were sent back home several weeks back? They left quite a bit of their stuff behind (video and photos abound). There's, nonetheless, not the slightest bit of evidence that the heavy weapons and armaments used by the DNR or LNR militias were delivered to them by Russia (which is the false claim you were making). That's three.

fired from the shore on a Ukrainian ship off the
coast of Mariupol, in the Sea of Azov, damaging it.

Wow! That's actually true! Good job, John.

The Russian militia leader Igor Strelkov

Bing! Strelkov stepped down as leader of the DNR militia weeks ago. The militia and governments of the DNR/LNR are led by Ukrainian locals. That's four.

bragged, "The militia have dealt the
enemy their first naval defeat."

Bing! You're referring (or actually, just regurgitating uncritically someone else's reference) to this. A post on a facebook (vkontakte is the Russian version of FB) page created under the name of Strelkov. On more than one occasion confirmed to not actually be his page or his writing or his words. That's five.

Strelkov is the same Russian leader

Bing! The thing you are talking about shortly here was credited (falsely, as it turns out, but still) not to Strelkov, but to a fighter going by the name "Grek", in a conversation with another fighter going by the name "Maior". Strelkov mentioned in several briefings over the weeks he led the DNR miltias the shooting-down of Ukrainian military hardware. But he's never been named as having said what you're saying here. That's six.

who bragged about shooting down the Malaysian Airlines passenger plane
with a Russian-supplied Buk missile system, before he realized it
wasn't a warplane.

Bing! There were several facebook (vkontakte) posts created in the aftermath of the crash purporting to be miltiamen or Ukrainian forces more or less admitting that they were the parties responsible for downing the MH plane. None of those rise to any level higher than 'heard it from a guy on the internet'. You're passing along a facebook rumor as if there was anything behind it, and there quite simly isn't. That's seven.

Seven distinct, explicit lies in one paragraph of three sentences. Credit to you -- that's quite an achievement. Can you maintain that level of productivity, I wonder. I'm sure you won't disappoint

Regarding the siezed-from-the-Ukrainian-army equipment. Since yet another encircled group* recently surrendered to the militias, there's yet another fresh video documentation of the equipment they were forced to leave behind (which will most likely be shortly joining its fellow trophies on the DNR/LNR lines).



There's so very much on-the-ground documented evidence that it's really kind of unforgiveable to hold any kind of opinion on the goins-on in Ukraine without at least being slightly aware of at least some of it.

----
*This particular encirclement was centered near Amvrosievka -- you may remember from your 'credible' sources that the Ukrainian army had supposedly conquered its way right into the edges of Donetsk a couple weeks back. Paying attention to reality as opposed to the lies of known liars, it was perfectly predictable that they were instead once again being allowed to advance so that their rear could be cut off and they could be taken apart at leisure with a much reduced loss of hardware (after all, Ukrainian army hardware is only one step away from being militia hardware, so long as it doesn't get broken in the taking). This has happened more than six times over the summer. There's a guy who does maps that get updated every couple of days. Can't recommend him enough; even when things have been bad for his side, he doesn't seem to have let it affect his standards of work.

Let's see how much troll crap you're spewing today.

QUOTE: All along it has been openly acknowledged that Russian citizens
in their own private capacity have been coming to Donbass to fight
alongside their friends, relatives, and former countrymen. Among those
citizens are, naturally, some who had previously served in the armed
forces (both the USSR and the RF practice conscription, so the 'former
soldier' moniker is one that applies to well over a majority of
Russian citizens).

Bing! I knew, and I said so, that you couldn't prove that these
thousands of Russian soldiers are "on vacation." You're just
regurgitating the lies of your Kremlin trollmasters. There's no way
that thousands of Russian soldiers would be invading a foreign
country, except under orders from the Kremlin. As usual, you're just
full of crap.

QUOTE: Bing! As private citizens operating on their own initiative and
unpaid, the Russian citizens fighting in Ukraine undisputably are on
leave from their jobs or school. "on vacation" is a pure
statement-of-fact, and an uncontroversial one at that. That's two.

Bing! One weasel word after another. You can't prove "on vacation,"
and it's hardly uncontroversial. You can't prove "their own
initiative." You certainly can't prove "unpaid." You're just
regurgitating lies from your trollmasters. There's no way that
thousands of Russian soldiers would be invading a foreign country,
except under orders from the Kremlin. As usual, you're just full of
crap.


QUOTE: Bing! The types of weapons and armor used by all parties in the
conflict in Ukraine are exactly the same. To call them "Russian" is to
falsely attribute. The bulk of the heavy equipment currently operated
by the DNR militias was seized during the liquidation of several
encircled Ukrainian army brigades over July and August. Remember the
~400 Ukrainian soldiers who fled into Russia and were sent back home
several weeks back? They left quite a bit of their stuff behind (video
and photos abound). There's, nonetheless, not the slightest bit of
evidence that the heavy weapons and armaments used by the DNR or LNR
militias were delivered to them by Russia (which is the false claim
you were making). That's three.

Bing! You can't prove a word of this. You're just regurgitating lies
from your trollmasters. How did those thousands of "unpaid" Russian
soldiers supposedly "on vacation" arrive in Ukraine? And having
arrived, how are they getting around? By donkey? No, they came in
armored vehicles. These are the armored vehicles spotted by the
Guardian and Telegraph reporters as they traveled across the border
into Ukraine, and these are the Russian armored vehicles proven by the
Nato photographs, and referenced by the U.S. State Department.



As I'm typing this, I'm listening to the BBC, interviewing someone
who's reminding everyone that the Russians at first said that there
were no Russian soldiers in Crimea, and then later not only admitted
that there were soldiers, but even gave them medals for their
accomplishments (in invading an conquering Crimea). So it's just one
lie after another from the Russians and their trolls.

QUOTE: On more than one occasion confirmed to not actually be his page
or his writing or his words. That's five.

Bing! Another weaseling. It was only "confirmed" by Russian trolls.
Of course it was Strelkov bragging, or one of his Russian lackeys.

QUOTE: Bing! The thing you are talking about shortly here was credited
(falsely, as it turns out, but still) not to Strelkov, but to a
fighter going by the name "Grek", in a conversation with another
fighter going by the name "Maior".

If it wasn't Strelkov, then it was Strelkov's lackey, speaking for
Strelkov. And your "falsely" claim is just another weasel-worded lie.

QUOTE: Bing! There were several facebook (vkontakte) posts created in
the aftermath of the crash purporting to be miltiamen or Ukrainian
forces more or less admitting that they were the parties responsible
for downing the MH plane. None of those rise to any level higher than
'heard it from a guy on the internet'. You're passing along a facebook
rumor as if there was anything behind it, and there quite simly
isn't. That's seven.

Bing! You haven't proven any of your claims except by "hearing it on
the internet" or quoting your trollmasters. You can't prove a thing
that you claim except by quoting trollmasters. Of course the Russians
were responsible for shooting down the passenger plane. Nato and
other sources have produced enormous amounts of evidence.

QUOTE: Seven distinct, explicit lies in one paragraph of three
sentences. Credit to you -- that's quite an achievement. Can you
maintain that level of productivity, I wonder. I'm sure you won't
disappoint

I want to thank you Justin. After all these weeks, I might have
softened my approach to describing the Russia-Ukraine situation, but
I'm so pissed off by all the lies and crap that you and a couple of
other paid Russian trolls dump on me that I'm determined to be as
clear and unambiguous as possible in explaining what's really going on
in Ukraine, and how Putin's policies in Ukraine and Syria are going to
cause WW III. So I thank you, and the world thanks you, for
motivating me to make sure that I keep telling the truth as forcefully
as possible, for the world to see.

John, you lying slut. You've still got nothing to support your unfounded assertions that reality keeps demolishing over and over again. But you don't let it stop you from making them and doubling down on them. And you never fail to throw a tantrum in extremis.

You've got predictability going for you, if not veracity or originality.

Originally Posted by justin '77

john, you lying slut.

LOL!!!! Lol!!!

Good to see you got the reference. SNL was at its best when Dan was on.

*** 2-Sep-14 World View -- India, Japan leaders meet to counter rise of China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's David Cameron announces new anti-terrorism measures
• Russian lawyers: 'Stealth invasion' of Ukraine is legal
• India, Japan leaders meet to counter rise of China

****
**** Britain's David Cameron announces new anti-terrorism measures
****


David Cameron in House of Commons (Reuters)

Having raised UK's terror threat level last week to "severe," meaning
that a terrori attack is "highly likely," but not necessarily
imminent, Britain's prime minister David Cameron on Monday announced a
new set of anti-terrorism measures.

The new measures are targeting a specific issue: Would-be jihadists
going to Syria to join the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS) for training, and them coming back to the UK to use those skills
in terrorist attacks. According to published statistics,
approximately 500 British citizens have traveled to fight in Syria,
and 200 of them have already returned home.

The first measure pertains to suspected citizens traveling abroad. It
will give police the power to temporarily confiscate a passport, in
order to prevent the suspect from leaving the country.

The second measure applies when a suspected citizen returns. Police
will have the power to exclude British citizen suspects from
reentering the country. If the citizen is allowed into the country,
the legislation will give police new powers to track suspected
jihadists and to take advantage of "enhanced relocation powers."
Suspected terrorists will required to undergo "de-radicalization
programs."

Consideration was given to the power to revoke a suspect's UK
citizenship, but unless the suspect had a dual citizenship, such a
power would leave the subject stateless, in violation of international
law.

In addition, airlines will be forced to hand over more information
about passengers travelling to and from conflict zones. BBC and CNN

****
**** Russian lawyers: 'Stealth invasion' of Ukraine is legal
****

Russia's government is hearing complaints from the liberal media to
explain why a group of Russian paratroopers, captured by the Ukrainian
army, were deployed to Ukraine by Russia's president Vladimir Putin
without authorization of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of
Russia's parliament.

Soldiers' mothers are complaining loudly that their sons are coming
home from Ukraine as "cargo 200" -- as dead servicemen shipped home
are referred to in Russia, based on the standard weight of a coffin --
without telling their families that they were deployed to Ukraine in
the first place.

However, apparently Putin can do pretty much anything he wants under
Russian law, thanks to a "universal mandate" that the Federation
Council issued to the president in 2009, allowing him to invade any
other country without further approval.

About 190,000 members of the 760,000-strong Russian army are
"volunteers," serving upon their own volition. They earn 18,000
rubles ($500) per month, a huge sum by Russian standards. They can be
ordered into combat in Ukraine or anywhere else at any time, and there
isn't even a contractual requirement that relatives be notified if
volunteers are killed in the line of duty.

The Russian government is disavowing soldiers who are being killed in
Ukraine, according to Russian activists. Numerous reporters, both
Western and Russian, have investigated what appear to be freshly dug,
unmarked graves of soldiers. All online accounts of the men who were
buried there have been removed from the Internet, as have photos of
the soldiers that their families placed on their graves. When Russian
journalists traveled there, the BBC reported that men told them they
would "never be found" unless they left.

But for Putin, it's all perfectly legal. Moscow Times and Washington Post and Telegraph (London)

****
**** India, Japan leaders meet to counter rise of China
****

India's prime minister Narendra Modi met with Japan's prime minister
Shinzo Abe in Tokyo on Monday, supposedly to improve economic ties,
but it was clear that the threats posed by China were high on the
agenda. Their joint statement said, "The two prime ministers
reaffirmed the importance of defense relations between Japan and India
in their strategic partnership and decided to upgrade and strengthen
them."

Abe and Modi agreed to hold regular joint naval exercises with the
United States, and to increase Japanese military exports to India.
This agreement was particularly significant in view of Abe's recent
reinterpretation of Japan's pacifist constitution, which permits
military action only for Japan's self-defense. Abe has reinterpreted
this to mean "collective self-defense." I discussed this issue in
detail recently in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.

This reinterpretation of the constitution will permit the armed forces
to use the military to defend allies, such as the United States or
India, even if the ally is being attack but Japan is not. It will
also permit the Japan to rescue Japanese civilians in remote
locations.

According to a Defense Ministry statement on Monday:

<QUOTE>"The recent approval of the exercise of the right to
collective self-defense means that it could become possible,
depending on the situation, for the MSDF [Maritime Self-Defense
Force] and the Indian Navy to jointly patrol the sea
lanes."<END QUOTE>

In a press conference, Modi took a swipe at China:

<QUOTE>"The 18th century situation of expansionism is now
visible. Such expansionism would never benefit humanity in the
21st century. ...

The world knows the 21st century is Asia's century. But its shape
and quality are not yet clear. This will be decided by how Japan
and India work together. I think our relationship is moving to a
new level."<END QUOTE>

Australian and Reuters and Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Federation Council,
India, Narendra Modi, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China,
collective self-defense

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*** 3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 1950s FBI trained Alaskans to prepare for a Soviet invasion
• Egypt, Saudis, Palestinian Authority develop a new 'peace initiative'
• Poll shows that Hamas's popularity surged after Gaza war
• The continuing realignment of the Mideast
• Obama orders 350 more troops into Iraq
• Doctors Without Borders: We're losing the battle against Ebola

****
**** 1950s FBI trained Alaskans to prepare for a Soviet invasion
****


Nome, Alaska (Reuters)

Declassified documents reveal that in the 1950s the FBI trained
Alaskan residents to become agents behind enemy lines if the Soviets
invaded. The US government feared that the Soviet Union was planning
an intervention and occupation of Alaska. The US military believed
that the Soviet invasion would be airborne, with bombing preceding
dropping of paratroopers to Alaska's major inhabited localities,
namely Anchorage, Fairbanks, Nome and Seward. Russia Today and Proposed Plan for Intelligence Coverage in Alaska in the Event of an Invasion (FBI, 1954) (PDF)

****
**** Egypt, Saudis, Palestinian Authority develop a new 'peace initiative'
****

In the wake of the Gaza war, Palestinian Authority (PA) president
Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, and
officials from other Arab nations are developing an initiative to
bring peace to the Mideast by "ending the occupation" within a
"definite timetable."

The initiative comprises three phases:

• In the first four-month phase, Israel and the U.S. will draw
  up maps representing their suggestion for the borders of the
  Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem
  as its capital.
  
• Next, all sides will commence negotiations for a limited time
  period.
  
• If that fails, then the Palestinians and the Arab League go to
  the United Nations Security Council and the International Criminal
  Court to pressure Israel to agree.

According to an Egyptian government editorial:

<QUOTE>"This is a unique juncture, and with the steady
[worsening] of the situation in Gaza and Israel's war crimes
against the Palestinian people, we can no longer content ourselves
with trying to find [temporary] arrangements while being certain
that the conflict will erupt again. Like President 'Abd Al-Fattah
Al-Sisi stressed, there is a real chance to end the Gaza crisis
and solve the Palestinian problem... The international community
should not pass up this chance, which was born of the ruin,
destruction, killing, and violent battles. The parties to the
conflict must sympathize with the suffering of their peoples and
make brave choices for peace... If this chance, as well as Egypt's
support for the efforts [to attain] a permanent solution to the
Palestinian problem, are not utilized, then all signs indicate
that the future will be worse. If there is no just and real peace,
the alternative is extremism and terrorism at the hands of ISIS
and its ilk. Israel is not distant from the rest of the world, and
therefore terrorism will not only target it, but the rest of the
world as well, starting with Europe and America."<END QUOTE>

Memri

****
**** Poll shows that Hamas's popularity surged after Gaza war
****

A new poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
(PCPSR) shows that the Gaza war was an enormous political victory for
Hamas, with a great increase in its popularity and support for its
approach to armed resistance. At the same time, there was a major
decline in the popularity of the Palestinian Authority and its
president, Mahmoud Abbas. Similar changes occurred in previous wars
between Hamas and Israel, but this time the changes in popularity were
unprecedented in size.

According to the poll findings:

• An overwhelming majority of Palestinians view Hamas as the
  winner, and Israel as the loser of the war.
  
• A similar majority believe that armed confrontation with Israel is
  the most effective means of ending Israeli occupation.
  
• Palestinians in the West Bank overwhelmingly want to adopt the
  "Hamas way" in the West Bank.
  
• Palestinians see Iran, Turkey and Qatar as the most instrumental
  in supporting Hamas and helping against the Israeli attacks. By
  contrast, Egypt’s role is seen as weak and unhelpful. Indeed, a
  majority believes that Egypt played a negative role in the ceasefire
  negotiations.

The logic of this poll is that it clearly contradicts the intention of
the new "peace initiative" by Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, and
the Saudis, as described above. According to the PCPSR, Hamas's
renewed popularity "might be temporary and things might revert in the
next several months to where they were before the war."

The clear implication of this is that there will be another war in the
"next several months," because Hamas is going to want to maintain its
popularity and remain in power. Hamas has absolutely no motivation
whatsoever to accede to a "peace agreement," and all Hamas has to do
to start a new war with Israel is to launch a few rockets. Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research

****
**** The continuing realignment of the Mideast
****

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal was quoted as
saying that "only peace will ensure Israel's endurance as a state."

He's right about that, but the problem is that there isn't going to be
peace. As I wrote in May, 2003, and
repeated dozens of time since then, there will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the 1948 war that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

Writing about this new peace initiative by Egypt, the PA and Saudi
Arabia almost gives me a headache because we've gone down this road so
many times before. It's suggestive of that old joke defining insanity
as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different
outcomes.

One thing that's becoming increasingly clear, however, is that it's
not going to be a war between Jews and ALL Arabs. The fault line
between Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia versus the Palestinians
plus Qatar plus (non-Arab) Turkey is becoming wider every day. This
indicates that the Israelis will have allies among the Arabs, and
that Arabs will be fighting each other, as well as the Israelis.

The rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) could
not have been predicted, but what was predicted was the war outlined
above, and that the Syria civil war would end. This has happened in a
remarkable way, as the Syria civil war has long since morphed into a
proxy war involving Syria, various al-Qaeda militias, ISIS, Russia,
Iran, Hezbollah, and soon the U.S. It's my personal opinion that the
"Nation of IS" will not last as long as many people fear or expect,
but at the very least we can expect to see ISIS subsumed into the
larger regional war, almost certainly on the side of the Palestinians
and Qatar.

I've left Iran mostly out of the above discussion because it continues
its schizophrenic path. Several long-time readers have written to me
recently saying that they never believed that Iran would become our
ally, as I've predicted many times in the last ten years, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis, and now they're totally astonished to
see this prediction come true right before our eyes.

In fact, even the editors of the New York Times appear to be
completely astonished by this development, as indicated in this
article:

<QUOTE>"The fight in northern Iraq appeared to be the first
time U.S. warplanes and militias backed by Iran had worked with a
common purpose on a battlefield against militants from the Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria, even though the Obama administration said
there was no direct coordination with the militias.

Should such military actions continue, they could mark a dramatic
shift for the United States and Iran, which have long vied for
control in Iraq. They could also align the interests of the
Americans with their longtime sworn enemies in the Shiite
militias, whose fighters killed many U.S. soldiers during the long
occupation of Iraq. ...

[In] a worst case scenario, more Sunnis could align with ISIS
fighters."<END QUOTE>

This realignment, which was predicted by Generational Dynamics,
is how the Mideast is going.

Iran, which is in a generational Awakening era, with one generation
having passed since the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and the
Iran/Iraq war, is pursuing a schizophrenic policy characterized by a
major generational split between the Revolution survivors, who can't
shake off their old policies and are still fighting the last war,
versus the younger generations who grew up afterwards, who like the
West, and don't particularly dislike Israel. Right now the old
geezers are still setting national policy, but when forced to choose,
the younger generations will win out, and they will be aligned with
the West. New York Times

****
**** Obama orders 350 more troops into Iraq
****

President Obama has ordered 350 additional troops into Iraq, "to
provide the necessary security for U.S. personnel and facilities."
The administration has authorized 775 troops since mid-June, so this
new order brings the total up to 1,125. The order came a few hours
after ISIS published another video on Tuesday showing the group had
beheaded another American journalist, freelancer Steven Joel Sotloff.
The Hill

****
**** Doctors Without Borders: We're losing the battle against Ebola
****

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) has treated
more than 1,000 Ebola patients in West Africa since March, and is
completely overwhelmed. According to MSF president Joanne Liu:

<QUOTE>"Six months into the worst Ebola epidemic in history,
the world is losing the battle to contain it. Ebola treatment
centers are reduced to places where people go to die alone, where
little more than palliative care is offered."<END QUOTE>

She says that infectious bodies are rotting in the street, and that
Liberia had to build a new crematorium instead of new Ebola care
centers. AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Alaska, FBI, Russia, Soviet Union,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Palestinian Authority,
Mahmoud Abbas, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Hamas, West Bank, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt,
Saud Al-Faisal, Israel, Great Islamic Revolution, Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
Ebola, Joanne Liu, Liberia

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*** 4-Sep-14 World View -- ISIS and Saudi Arabia in the Mideast realignment

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia cracks down on terrorists linked to ISIS
• ISIS and the resurgence of Saudi Wahhabism

****
**** Saudi Arabia cracks down on terrorists linked to ISIS
****


ISIS terrorists marching, carrying the ISIS black flag (AP)

In yesterday's posting ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"
), I used a Generational Dynamics analysis to
outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a growing fault
line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudia Arabia versus the
Palestinians plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American
Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the West. More
needs to be said about the rise Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS), and its place in the Mideast realignment.

It probably wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration to say that
leaders in Saudi Arabia are becoming panicky about the rise of ISIS.
It's estimated that 2,500 Saudis have joined ISIS, a number surpassed
among Arab nations only by Tunisia, with 3,000. Saudi media are
reporting almost daily on the discovery of signs of support for Isis –
most recently in slogans scrawled on the walls of schools in Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia's capital city. It's believed that ISIS has received
funding from Saudi sponsors in the past, fighting Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad, and Saudi Arabia itself is split between supporters
and non-supporters of ISIS.

However, the Saudi government has very publicly and very firmly
cracking down on ISIS recently. Last week, the Saudis
announced the arrest of 88 people, days after an imam was
jailed for glorifying al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Saudi Arabia's King, Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, is becoming
increasingly exuberant in warning the West about ISIS. In a statement
at a recent gathering, he warned about the "evil" of terrorism:

<QUOTE>"If we ignore them [terrorists], I am sure they will
reach Europe in a month and America in another month. Terrorist
knows no borders and its danger could affect several countries
outside the Middle East."<END QUOTE>

In the continuing realignment of the Middle East, it seems
increasingly likely that ISIS will play an important part. The
conundrum is that ISIS is a bitter enemy of Iran, but it's also an
enemy of the Saudi Arabian government. Whether the solution to the
conundrum will be a war within Saudi Arabia itself remains to be seen.
Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Guardian (London) and Canadian Broadcasting

****
**** ISIS and the resurgence of Saudi Wahhabism
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia is part
of an interesting group of countries -- countries that, like Mexico,
Morocco, Turkey and Russia that had a generational crisis war in the
1920s, but none since.

Saudi Arabia's last generational crisis war occurred in the 1920s
between the Al Sauds tribes and the Wahhabi tribes. The two groups
had (have) different interpretations of Islam, and Wahhabism may be
thought of as a separate branch of Sunni Islam, following an austere
interpretation (many Muslim scholars would say "misinterpretation") of
the Koran. The more moderate Al Sauds defeated Wahhabi tribesmen in
the 1920s and transformed Wahhabism into a socially conservative
pillar of support for what soon became the country of Saudi Arabia in
1932.

However, the fault line between the Al Sauds and the Wahhabis never
disappeared, and it's not surprising that violence along this fault
line began to increase three generations later in the late 1970s,
particularly with the Wahhabi seizure of the Grand Mosque at Mecca,
the holiest site in Islam.

There's little doubt that either this revolt or some subsequent revolt
would have led to a full-fledged renewal of the war between the Al
Sauds and the Wahhabis by now, if it weren't for Saudi Arabia's oil
wealth, which permits it to spend large amounts of money to head off
discontent.

ISIS's leader, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, has deliberately and
intentionally adopted the Wahhabi doctrine as his own, according to
Saudi scholar Fouad Ibrahim:

<QUOTE>"Through its intentional adoption of this Wahhabist
language, ISIS is knowingly lighting the fuse to a bigger regional
explosion -- one that has a very real possibility of being
ignited, and if it should succeed, will change the Middle East
decisively."<END QUOTE>

In the past, when violence was threatened against Saudi Arabia's
leadership, it was almost always completely internal violence. ISIS
is a much more serious threat to Saudi Arabia, because it's an
EXTERNAL threat. And since ISIS already has plenty of wealth, Saudi
Arabia cannot buy off ISIS with oil money. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and Guardian (London) and Huffington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Tunisia,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Wahhabism, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi

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*** 5-Sep-14 World View -- ISIS and al-Qaeda in a generational struggle for India

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS and Mideast realignment energize Islamic terrorism in India
• ISIS and al-Qaeda have generational struggle, and the prize is India
• China to increase harassment of U.S. surveillance planes

****
**** ISIS and Mideast realignment energize Islamic terrorism in India
****


Mumbai's Taj Mahal Palace Hotel during Mumbai's 26/11 terrorist attack in 2008

In the past few days, we're discussed the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
and the effect of ISIS on the Mideast realignment.
However, the meteoric rise of the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) is firing the excitement and imagination
of young Muslim men around that world, giving ISIS an effect that goes
well beyond the Mideast.

Islam has grown organically within India, unlike other countries, and
has over centuries evolved elaborate cultures of accommodation with
Hinduism and other faiths. India's last generational crisis wars --
the 1947 Partition war between Western India and Pakistan, and the
1971 crisis war between Eastern India and Bangladesh (East Pakistan)
-- were both particularly bloody, and pitted Hindus against Muslims,
leaving even the Muslim survivors living in India with little desire
for more violence through terrorist attacks. What Islamic terrorism
has occurred has mostly come from external sources, namely terrorist
militias in Pakistan, often funded by Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) Agency.

But now two important developments, both attributable to the rise of
ISIS, indicate that internal forms of Islamic terrorism are likely to
increase in India.

First, ISIS is directly energizing Islamic terrorism in India.
Estimates vary from several dozen to several hundred of the number of
Indians that have gone to the Mideast and are suspected of having
joined ISIS. A breakaway faction of the Indian Mujahiddeen has
declared its intention to fly the ISIS flag over South Asia. And the
formerly moderate India militia Jamaat-e-Islami recently issued a
statement:

<QUOTE>"It is very necessary to welcome the announcement of
the establishment of Islamic Caliphate by the ISIS because Islamic
caliphate is the aspiration of every Muslim and there has never
been a disagreement on the issue among the Muslims in any period
of history."<END QUOTE>

An unknown is what effect ISIS is having on the Pakistan, and ISI's
funding of anti-India militias, particularly in Kashmir and Jammu.
ISIS may energize ISI as well to increase funding to homegrown Indian
jihadist groups like Indian Mujhideen, or to encourage these jihadist
groups to enter the ISIS fold. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and One India

****
**** ISIS and al-Qaeda have generational struggle, and the prize is India
****

The second new development attributable to ISIS is that al-Qaeda has
apparently been energized to take a new look at establishing a branch
in India.

The rise of ISIS has led to a generational split within the global
jihadist community. When ISIS's young leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
declared himself a new "caliph," and demanded that the entire Muslim
world bow down to him, the response has been sporadic. While young
Muslims may be drawn to the thrill of decapitating Western
journalists, older jihadists are tied by loyalty oaths to al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, and are even more repulsed by the ISIS's
recent massacre of hundreds of Sunni tribesmen in Syria. Others
simply question the religious legitimacy of al-Baghdadi's
self-anointed caliphate.

So, some people see al-Zawahiri's new message as opportunistic, and
others see it as desperate. His statement emerged in a video late on
Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is
Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian subcontinent, seeking to raise the
flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah
of Allah across the Indian subcontinent. [It will defend the]
vulnerable in the Indian subcontinent, in Burma, Bangladesh,
Assam, Gujarat, and Kashmir [and] your brothers in Qaedat al-Jihad
did not forget you and that they are doing what they can to rescue
you from injustice, oppression, persecution, and suffering.

This entity was not established today, but it is the fruit of a
blessed effort for more than two years to gather the mujahideen in
the Indian subcontinent into a single entity to be with the main
group, Qaedat al-Jihad, from the soldiers of the Islamic Emirate
and its triumphant emir, Allah permitting, Emir of the Believers
Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid."

"It is an entity that was formed to promulgate the call of the
reviving Imam Sheikh Osama bin Laden, may Allah have mercy on him,
to call the Ummah to unite round the word of Tawhid (monotheism),
to wage jihad against its enemies, to liberate its land, to
restore its sovereignty, and to revive its
Caliphate."<END QUOTE>

The leader of the new group, Umar, said in an audio recording released
with the video, that Jews and Hindus, who he referred to as 'apostates
of India", "will watch your destruction by your own eyes". Fighters
will "storm your barricades with cars packed with gunpowder," Umar
said, decrying what he called the region's "injustice toward Muslims."

Whether the old geezers at al-Qaeda can attract young Muslims in India
is far from clear. The realignment of the Mideast goes far beyond the
Mideast, and it seems likely that ISIS will be more successful in
India than al-Qaeda will. Pune Mirror (India) and Foreign Policy

****
**** China to increase harassment of U.S. surveillance planes
****

As we recently reported,
a Chinese
jet fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet to a
U.S. surveillance plane in international waters. The incident is
reminiscent of an April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor
crashed into a U.S. surveillance aircraft off the southern China
coast. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was
killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan
Island, and its 24 crew members were imprisoned for 10 days.

It's been assumed that these were the acts of rogue Chinese pilots,
but now it appears that they were ordered from above, and that the
harassment is likely to become even more aggressive and dangerous.
According to China's Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong:

<QUOTE>"We didn't give them enough pressure (before). A
knife at the throat is the only deterrence. From now on, we must
fly even closer to U.S. surveillance aircraft."<END QUOTE>

It's believed that China is trying to prevent the U.S. from learning
anything about their submarine fleet. China is continuing to build
submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles with a range of over
4,000 nautical miles, and already has 70 such submarines. China has
been for years on an aggressive program to develop as much military
capability as possible, including a variety of missiles with no other
purpose than to target American cities, aircraft carriers, and
military bases. The submarine fleet would permit China to launch
simultaneous nuclear attacks on hundreds of cities across the United
States. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI, Jamaat-e-Islami,
Indian Mujhideen, Kashmir, Jammu, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,
al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden,
China, Zhang Zhaozhong

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

China is continuing to build
submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles with a range of over
4,000 nautical miles, and already has 70 such submarines.

Xenakis. Are you saying here that china's total submarine fleet of all types is 70 submarines, or are you saying that china has 70 ballistic missile submarines?

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Xenakis. Are you saying here that china's total submarine fleet of all types is 70 submarines, or are you saying that china has 70 ballistic missile submarines?

I'm quoting the referenced Reuters article, which isn't entirely clear, but which seems to be saying the latter.

*** 6-Sep-14 World View -- Debka: ISIS is targeting the Euphrates and Tigris river basins in Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• BBC's great event 'problems of the world' ignores China
• India to release 250,000 prisoners awaiting trial
• Debka: ISIS is targeting the Euphrates and Tigris river basins in Iraq
• Full text of Ayman al-Zawahiri message

****
**** BBC's great event 'problems of the world' ignores China
****


A man with a sign saying THE END IS AT HAND talks to the crowd at Speakers' Corner, Hyde Park, London on 11 June 1972 (BBC)

With the world as fragile as it is, some people are suggesting that
2014 could be a pivotal year when some "great event" might occur that
would determine whether the 21st century would bring peace and
prosperity or war and poverty.

The BBC has posted a summary of the major crises of the world. In
brief, here's their list:

• Ukraine - The biggest crisis in Europe since the end of the
  Cold War.
  
• Syria - The "biggest humanitarian emergency of our era"
  
• Islamic State -- The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
  ISIS) has seized vast swathes of eastern Syria and northern and
  western Iraq, prompting US military intervention in the region once
  again.
  
• Militant Islam -- ISIS, Boko Haram, AQIM, AQAP.
  
• Afghanistan -- No letup of Taliban attacks as US withdraws.
  
• Israel-Gaza -- Some of the deadliest violence in years between
  Israel and Palestinians.
  
• Ebola - The "largest and most severe and most complex" Ebola
  outbreak in history.

No mention of China, its continuing annexation of territories
belonging to other countries, and its massive preparation of missiles
systems with no other purpose than a pre-emptive attack on the United
States. BBC

****
**** India to release 250,000 prisoners awaiting trial
****

India's Supreme Court on Friday ordered the release of about 250,000
prisoners who have been in jail sometimes for years, but who haven't
had trials because the courts are overcrowded. These "undertrial"
prisoners make up some two-thirds of the country's four million
prisoners. The court order will apply to prisoners who have been
awaiting trials, and who have already served at least half of the
maximum sentence that they would receive if they ever reached trial.
Calcutta Telegraph and AFP

****
**** Debka: ISIS is targeting the Euphrates and Tigris river basins in Iraq
****


Map of ISIS advances in Iraq (Debka)

According to a detailed analysis in Debka's subscriber-only newsletter
(sent to me by a subscriber), the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS) is highly contemptuous of the U.S. bombing raids on ISIS,
because they pose no real military threat. Instead of targeting main
ISIS centers and bases, they target scattered armored vehicles and
isolated positions. In fact, U.S. air activity in Iraq is diminishing
by stages, while ISIS strengthens its grip on captured locations in
Iraq.

According to this analysis, while the U.S. is bombing unimportant
targets, the ISIS advance will travel along two paths simultaneously,
along the Euphrates and Tigris river basins respectively, and link up
in Mahmudiya, where the two rivers run in closest proximity. Ths
would give ISIS a dominant military position over the Shiite provinces
south of Baghdad and in relation to Saudi Arabia to the south and
Jordan and Israel to the west. If successful, this would connect
ISIS's northern Syria and western Iraqi strongholds -- the cradle of
civilization -- without having run into a single Iraqi or Kurdish
soldier to impede their progress – or being bombed by U.S. warplanes.
Debka

****
**** Full text of Ayman al-Zawahiri message
****

In yesterday's World View column, ISIS and al-Qaeda in a generational struggle for India
, I posted a
couple of paragraphs from the statement by al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri. The full statement can be found here (PDF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Speakers' Corner, London, India,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Ayman al-Zawahiri, Iraq, Euphrates river, Tigris river, Mahmudiya

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China wont attack until its arsenal is at least twice as large as ours, and until they built a credible BMD system. Since the US arsenal currently outnumbers theirs by 3 to one, there is little immediate danger. Also china's carrier and transport aircraft building programs have target completion dates in the early to mid 2020s, which imply a war if their is to be one in the mid 2020s. Also china directly borders both Russia and India, countries that if a war breaks out would likely be at war with china before the US is. But I don't think you are using the same estimates that US and British intelligence and by extention military balance publications are using. If so what military balance estimates are your using for your site?

Regarding al-Qaeda, how would they be able to conquer Pakistan, given their current capabilities (or lack of them)? Let alone India.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> China wont attack until its arsenal is at least twice as large as
> ours, and until they built a credible BMD system. Since the US
> arsenal currently outnumbers theirs by 3 to one, there is little
> immediate danger. Also china's carrier and transport aircraft
> building programs have target completion dates in the early to mid
> 2020s, which imply a war if their is to be one in the mid
> 2020s. Also china directly borders both Russia and India,
> countries that if a war breaks out would likely be at war with
> china before the US is. But I don't think you are using the same
> estimates that US and British intelligence and by extention
> military balance publications are using. If so what military
> balance estimates are your using for your site?

You tell me: Why did Japan bomb Pearl Harbor, when it was obvious that
Japan couldn't win? Why did the South fire on Fort Sumter when the
North was three times the size? Why do people have inappropriate sex
when they know it will lead to personal disaster?

Originally Posted by Wolfgang Schivelbusch, The Culture of Defeat

> The passions excited in the national psyche by the onset of war
> show how deeply invested the masses now were in its potential
> outcome. Propaganda had reinforced their conviction that
> "everything was at stake," and the threat of death and defeat
> functioned like a tightly coiled spring, further heightening the
> tension. The almost festive jubilation that accompanied the
> declarations of war in Charleston in 1861, Paris in 1870, and the
> capitals of the major European powers in 1914 were anticipatory
> celebrations of victory-since nations are as incapable of
> imagining their own defeat as individuals are of conceiving their
> own death. The new desire to humiliate the enemy, noted by
> Burckhardt, was merely a reaction to the unprecedented posturing
> in which nations now engaged when declaring war.

In 2005, in an article on Taiwan, I quoted General Zhu Chenghu, a
top-level officer in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) saying
what would happen if American interfered in Taiwan:

Originally Posted by Zhu Chenghu

> If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be
> determined to respond. We ... will prepare ourselves for the
> destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [a city in central
> China]. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that
> hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.

The Chinese may believe that once the missiles on both sides are
used up, then they'll win by exhaustion since they have 5 times
the population. And they may be right.

I don't know what erotic fantasies PLA generals are experiencing, but
I do know that any Chinese attack will not be entirely rational.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Regarding al-Qaeda, how would they be able to conquer Pakistan,
> given their current capabilities (or lack of them)? Let alone
> India.

The model that al-Qaeda has been using for 20 years was the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution in Iran, which they've been trying to repeat in one
country after another.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

You tell me: Why did Japan bomb Pearl Harbor, when it was obvious that
Japan couldn't win? Why did the South fire on Fort Sumter when the
North was three times the size? Why do people have inappropriate sex
when they know it will lead to personal disaster.

Japan was stronger than the US militarily in 1941. By December 1941 Japan had no less than 10 aircraft carriers and many dozens of battleships and heavy cruisers. They had a by then combat hardened army and air force, which already fought in china, southeast Asia and even in a border war with the USSR. The US in December 1941 had only 3 aircraft carriers in the pacific and 6 overall. So japan had achieved the at least 2 to 1 superiority at the point of attack that I have mentioned. Also the war by 1941 had already eliminated the other rivals to japan militarily, so the US was by then the only other military force in the region.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I don't know what erotic fantasies PLA generals are experiencing, but
I do know that any Chinese attack will not be entirely rational.

It wont be the PLA generals making the decision to go to war under the current system in china. Under the system that currently exists in china, the decision to commit their country to war is made by the politburo and the central committee in Beijing. The Chinese hierarchy of government is most similar to that of the old USSR.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The model that al-Qaeda has been using for 20 years was the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution in Iran, which they've been trying to repeat in one
country after another.

And al-Qaeda has lost everytime it has committed itself to open battle.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> It wont be the PLA generals making the decision to go to war under
> the current system in china. Under the system that currently
> exists in china, the decision to commit their country to war is
> made by the politburo and the central committee in Beijing. The
> Chinese hierarchy of government is most similar to that of the old
> USSR.

Politicians are even more irrational than generals.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Politicians are even more irrational than generals.

This was not the case in 1914 Germany (but not 1939 Germany), or 1941 japan. Also why do you assume that any large-scale enemy would be irrational, we already fought wars against several irrational enemies in the last 1 to 2 saeculums.