Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> This was not the case in 1914 Germany (but not 1939 Germany), or
> 1941 japan. Also why do you assume that any large-scale enemy
> would be irrational, we already fought wars against several
> irrational enemies in the last 1 to 2 saeculums.

1914 Germany was a non-crisis war, and such wars tend to be
"rational." I doubt that Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was
"rational."

What you're getting into here is S&H's "Regeneracy" concept, which is
unique to crisis wars. In fact, it's the Regeneracy that transforms a
"rational" non-crisis war into an irrational crisis war.

You say that China won't start WW III until the 2020s, but I would
argue that China has already started WW III by its salami-slicing
attacks in the South China sea. These attacks are frightening and
infuriating other countries, especially Vietnam and the Philippines.
The South China Sea situation is very explosive. All it would take is
one pissed off general or politician in Vietnam, the Philippines,
China, Japan or India to trigger something that could escalate into a
major war very quickly. It would take only one "event" to cause a
Regeneracy.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

1914 Germany was a non-crisis war, and such wars tend to be
"rational." I doubt that Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was
"rational."

What you're getting into here is S&H's "Regeneracy" concept, which is
unique to crisis wars. In fact, it's the Regeneracy that transforms a
"rational" non-crisis war into an irrational crisis war.

You say that China won't start WW III until the 2020s, but I would
argue that China has already started WW III by its salami-slicing
attacks in the South China sea. These attacks are frightening and
infuriating other countries, especially Vietnam and the Philippines.
The South China Sea situation is very explosive. All it would take is
one pissed off general or politician in Vietnam, the Philippines,
China, Japan or India to trigger something that could escalate into a
major war very quickly. It would take only one "event" to cause a
Regeneracy.

I was referring to 1914 Germany and 1941 Japan as examples in which the military leadership was much more inclined towards war than the civilian leadership which wanted peace. In 1939 Germany it was the exact opposite, the civilian leadership wanted war while the generals wanted peace. Regarding the regeneracy and war, there was no such regeneracy even in Germany in the 1930s; in fact the prior outbreak of war in 1914 was accompanied by massive celebrations in berlin. However in 1939 there were no such celebrations, in fact the war was unpopular with the mass of the German people in 1939 until the fall of France in 1940 boosted the wars popularity among the common people, even so German ruling class was not completely unified in policy until Barbarossa in June 1941.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Vietnam, the Philippines,
China, Japan or India to trigger something that could escalate into a
major war very quickly. It would take only one "event" to cause a
Regeneracy.

Of those countries, only japan has US forces stationed there, and is thus an active ally. Also Vietnam and India are much more Russian allies, than US ones, Chinese territorial ambitions are also focused mainly on the lands and seas bordering china; A Chinese war with Russia, India, or Vietnam quickly escalate to total war since these ambitions are in direct contradiction to Vietnamese, Indian, or Russian sovereignty. However a US-china war would be more of a clash of hegemonies since, neither state has an advantage to completely finish off the other, also Chinese territorial claims do not extend to anywhere in the western hemisphere.

*** 7-Sep-14 World View -- Israel preparing for 'very violent' war with Hezbollah

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel preparing for 'very violent' war with Hezbollah
• Sierra Leone announces three-day Ebola lockdown across entire country
• Ebola pandemic may mean the end of the 'Africa Rising' dream

****
**** Israel preparing for 'very violent' war with Hezbollah
****


Screen grab from TV show showing potential Hezbollah rocket fire on Israel

In a series of articles in the last week, we've been highlighting the
Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
and the effect of the rise of ISIS on Saudi Arabia
as well as rise of ISIS on India.
I used a Generational Dynamics
analysis to outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a
growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudia Arabia
versus the Palestinians plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly
anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the
West.

The terror groups Hezbollah, which is funded an controlled by Iran, is
not facing the same kind of schizophrenia that its puppetmaster Iran
is experiencing. Iran's attitudes towards Israel are greatly split
along generational lines, where the older generations talk about
destroying Israel, and the younger generations like the West and don't
have anything particular against Israel.

The same cannot be said for Lebanon's Hezbollah. I've seen no signs
that there's any split at all in Hezbollah's attitude towards Israel,
which is a desire for its destruction.

The new story that, just a few days after the end of the Gaza war,
Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) are preparing for a "very violent" war
with Hezbollah highlights the situation.

In Israel's 2006 war, Hezbollah's rockets did not reach far into
Israel, and they were poorly aimed. The same was true of Hamas's
rockets in the Gaza war. But today Hezbollah has an estimated 100,000
rockets and missiles, many with precision guidance systems and large
warheads, able to target all of Israel.

In the 2006 war, Israel targeted Lebanon's infrastructure, in order to
inhibit the transportation of weapons. In a new war, Israel would
target homes in villages across Lebanon from which Hezbollah is
launching rockets into Israel. Israel received a great deal of
international condemnation for those actions in the Gaza war, and they
would be stepped up in a new war with Hezbollah. In addition, it's
believed that Hezbollah has build tunnels that travel from homes in
Lebanon deep into Israel, and these tunnels would be targeted.

There's a real question whether Hezbollah's puppetmaster, Iran, would
hold Hezbollah back from this war. Despite anti-Zionist rhetoric,
Iran has little to gain from a Hezbollah attack on Israel, and Israel
could retaliate by carrying out its long-time threat to bomb Iran's
nuclear installations. Times of Israel

****
**** Sierra Leone announces three-day Ebola lockdown across entire country
****

For the three days of September 19-21, people will be forbidden from
leaving their home, in an attempt to stop the spread of Ebola. During
this period 21,000 volunteers, including police and military
personnel, will fan out across the nation to talk with people about
how to protect themselves from the disease, as well as identify Ebola
cases.

The idea is that people who are infected with Ebola will have three
days to develop symptoms, and so will not then go out and accidentally
infect others. Funerals have been a particularly important source of
transmission, and in fact the current outbreak has been traced to a
dozen individuals who attended the same funeral of an Ebola patient in
Guinea in March. A dead Ebola patient is particularly infectious, and
relatives touch victims during traditional funeral rites in west
Africa, resulting in a rapid spread. Now, with the number of Ebola
deaths surging, the number of funerals is also surging, and it's hoped
that the three day lockdown, combined with education by the 21,000
volunteers, will prevent accidental transmission at funerals and by
other means.

However, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) is
saying that the idea is folly. According an MSF statement:

<QUOTE>"Large scale coercive measures like forced quarantines
and lockdowns are driving people underground and jeopardizing the
trust between people and health providers. This is leading to the
concealment of cases and is pushing the sick away from health
systems."<END QUOTE>

Objections are also being raised to the use of 21,000 volunteers, most
of whom would lack the high levels of expertise required to diagnose
and deal with Ebola cases. According to MSF, "It will be extremely
difficult for health workers to accurately identify cases through
door-to-door screenings as this requires a certain level of expertise.
And when cases are identified, there will not be enough Ebola
management centers to care for them." Guardian (London) and CNN

****
**** Ebola pandemic may mean the end of the 'Africa Rising' dream
****

After decades of war that were so brutal that Liberia's president
Charles Taylor was accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity,
West Africa finally seemed to be booming. Investment in had been
booming, and the middle-class burgeoning. Democracy seemed to have
taken root. The "Africa Rising" narrative seemed to be coming true.

But the Ebola pandemic has changed all that. There have been nearly
4,000 Ebola cases so far, cases are increasing exponentially and there
is a potentially vulnerable population in Sierra Leone, Liberia and
Guinea in excess of 20 million. There have been over 2,000 deaths.

Health services throughout the region are completely overwhelmed. And
the various lockdowns and quarantines are making matters worse.
Airlines have canceled flights to and from the region, making it
impossible to fly in health workers. Even simple things like rubber
gloves are in short supply because transporting supplies to different
regions is becoming impossible. The shortage of these supplies means
that health workers are more vulnerable, and the shortage of health
workers means that little can be done for Ebola patients except to
just let them die.

That's true for more than just Ebola cases. This is malaria season in
West Africa. A person infected with malaria will be afraid to go to a
hospital filled with Ebola victims, and health workers will be afraid
to treat the malaria victim, who might have Ebola instead. So malaria
victims will just be permitted to die, like Ebola victims. Even women
just giving birth may die for lack of medical care.

The economic consequences are severe. The epidemic is causing labor
shortages that are endangering harvests and pushing up food prices.

Ebola was first encountered in 1976, named after the Ebola River in
the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), where the first
known outbreak occurred. That outbreak, and outbreaks since then,
have all occurred in small villages and rural areas, where health
workers were able to contain them quickly. The world has had no
experience dealing with an Ebola outbreak in large, crowded cities.

The fear is growing that this Ebola outbreak will never be contained,
and that it will just have to run its course, until every person in
West Africa is exposed, and either dies or doesn't die as a result.
The fear is also growing that the epidemic will spread to other
countries, in some cases with the same result. Independent (South Africa) and BBC and Economist


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon,
Sierra Leone, Ebola, Africa Rising, West Africa,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Zaire

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Of those countries, only japan has US forces stationed there, and is thus an active ally. Also Vietnam and India are much more Russian allies, than US ones, Chinese territorial ambitions are also focused mainly on the lands and seas bordering china; A Chinese war with Russia, India, or Vietnam quickly escalate to total war since these ambitions are in direct contradiction to Vietnamese, Indian, or Russian sovereignty. However a US-china war would be more of a clash of hegemonies since, neither state has an advantage to completely finish off the other, also Chinese territorial claims do not extend to anywhere in the western hemisphere.

** 28-Apr-14 World View -- Philippines agrees to major return of U.S. military to counter China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...28.htm#e140428

Nonetheless its more like Russia and India would be at war with china before the US is. Remember from the 7th century until about 1860 what is now present day eastern Siberia used to be part of china. More recently there were the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979 and sino-Russian confrontations in 1964, 1969 and 1979. In other words, china will attack but its main focus will go north, not south.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Nonetheless its more like Russia and India would be at war with china before the US is. Remember from the 7th century until about 1860 what is now present day eastern Siberia used to be part of china. More recently there were the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979 and sino-Russian confrontations in 1964, 1969 and 1979. In other words, china will attack but its main focus will go north, not south.

That's true. I wouldn't disagree.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

That's true. I wouldn't disagree.

Yes, but you have always insisted that America and the west would be allied with the Russian-Indian-Shiite bloc in WW3. Given the current state of US-Russian relations as well as the general state of relations with the Shiite bloc in particular over the past generation; how would such an alliance come about? Our Relations with china and the sunni bloc have usually been better than our relations the Russian-orthodox-Shiite bloc over the past 40 years or so. The Sunni states even today are mostly US allies.

Why do you assume the blocs will be Sunni-Shia? Theoretically Kurds or Yezidi are their own faction and have offered protection to religious minorities. Their religion is partly from
the pre-Islamic culture.

Afghans also have their own Pashtunwali which is nothing to do with Sunni or Shia. Maybe the roots go back to a similar place or person. The Afghans are part of prophecy in more than one way.

They are connected to the original Banu Israil (not just the last remaining Judeans who are known to the West - part of the original assembly of all the tribes). They were called kaffir or mleccha, but that sounds like Malek. The leader of the ancient Kurds.

The cultures there have old roots before anything Islamic. Islam brought them back into the Abrahamic fold. They had been part of the related Zoroastrian religion.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Yes, but you have always insisted that America and the west would
> be allied with the Russian-Indian-Shiite bloc in WW3. Given the
> current state of US-Russian relations as well as the general state
> of relations with the Shiite bloc in particular over the past
> generation; how would such an alliance come about? Our Relations
> with china and the sunni bloc have usually been better than our
> relations the Russian-orthodox-Shiite bloc over the past 40 years
> or so. The Sunni states even today are mostly US allies.

Originally Posted by Anc' Mariner

> Why do you assume the blocs will be Sunni-Shia? Theoretically
> Kurds or Yezidi are their own faction and have offered protection
> to religious minorities. Their religion is partly from the
> pre-Islamic culture.

> Afghans also have their own Pashtunwali which is nothing to do
> with Sunni or Shia. Maybe the roots go back to a similar place or
> person. The Afghans are part of prophecy in more than one way.

> They are connected to the original Banu Israil (not just the last
> remaining Judeans who are known to the West - part of the original
> assembly of all the tribes). They were called kaffir or
> mleccha, but that sounds like Malek. The leader of the ancient
> Kurds.

> The cultures there have old roots before anything Islamic. Islam
> brought them back into the Abrahamic fold. They had been part of
> the related Zoroastrian religion.

I've written several articles recently on the realignment of the
Mideast following the Gaza war and the rise of ISIS, and it's pretty
clear that the fault line is more ethnic than Sunni-Shia.

*** 8-Sep-14 World View -- Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the 'Palestinian unity' government

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia consolidates gains in Ukraine with ceasefire plan
• Russia threatens Nato with a new nuclear military doctrine
• Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the 'Palestinian unity' government

****
**** Russia consolidates gains in Ukraine with ceasefire plan
****


U.S. 173 airborne brigade soldiers leave a C-17 aircraft during the 'Steadfast Javelin II' military exercise in the former Soviet state of Latvia on Saturday (Reuters/MoscowTimes)

Weeks after Russia sent thousands of troops, hundreds of tanks, and
other heavy weapons to join the anti-government militias in Ukraine,
Russia appears to be consolidating its gains from the invasion by
arranging for a ceasefire on Friday between Ukraine's government and
the anti-government militias.

The ceasefire may or may not be holding, depending on what reports you
read. Apparently the strategic port of Mariupol is still under at
least sporadic attack by the Russians. If the Russian troops are
successful in capturing Mariupol, then then can push through and link
up with Russia troops already in the peninsula of Crimea, which Russia
invaded and annexed in March.

There are no analysts that I heard who believe that the conflict is
finally over. By means of "stealth invasion tactics," the Russian
troops have leveraged local anti-government militias first to annex
Crimea, and then to freeze Russian control of much of eastern and
southern Ukraine, referred to by the Russians as "Novorossiya" (New
Russia). Even if the current ceasefire holds for a few days, there
seems little doubt that Russian troops will eventually push on to
Crimea, and then on to the port of Odessa, to link up with the
secessionist Transnistria province of Moldova. France 24 and Bloomberg

****
**** Russia threatens Nato with a new nuclear military doctrine
****

According to Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian military and security
affairs at New York University, Russia's success in invading Ukraine
comes from a military doctrine called "non-linear hybrid war" -- using
highly trained and well equipped troops working in unison with local
militant groups to destabilize territories. He expects Russia's next
military doctrine revision to "place greater emphasis on intervention
forces: the thought that 1,000 to 3,000 troops in the right place and
in the right political environment, as we see in Ukraine, can make a
big difference."

Although Nato has indicated that it will not use military force to
oppose Russian forces in Ukraine, the invasion has energized Nato
enough so that Russia is also revise its military doctrine to envision
nuclear war with Nato, according to Russian sources. The doctrine may
list Nato not only as the primary threat to Russia, but detail the
scenarios in which preemptive nuclear strikes against the alliance
would be on the table. Moscow Times

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the 'Palestinian unity' government
****

A bitterly angry Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) president Mahmoud
Abbas is threatening to terminate the "Palestinian unity agreement"
that Fatah signed with Hamas on April 23. Abbas is quoted as saying:

<QUOTE>"I don't trust Hamas much because they change their
words all the time. There must be a unified Palestinian
Authority. ...

You [Hamas] are smuggling weapons, explosives and money to the
(West) Bank - and not to fight Israel, but to hold a coup against
the (Palestinian) Authority.

Hamas has been trying to cause the Palestinian Authority to fail
since the day it was formed."<END QUOTE>

During the last week we've been highlighting the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus
Saudi Arabia plus PA/Fatah versus the Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey,
with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with
America and the West. So it's not surprising at all that the Hamas -
Fatah unity government is collapsing.

Part of the "peace agreement" that ended the Gaza war was
to give the unity government control of Gaza. However, Abbas
is accusing Hamas of running a "shadow government" that
shuts out the unity government:

<QUOTE>"We will not accept the situation with Hamas
continuing as it is at the moment.

We won't accept a partnership with them if the situation continues
like this in Gaza where there is a shadow government ... running
the territory.

The national consensus [unity] government cannot do anything on
the ground."<END QUOTE>

Abbas was also bitterly angry at the way Fatah members were treated
during the war: "Hamas conducted atrocities during the war in Gaza,
also at its end when it executed 120 people without trial because they
breached the curfew placed on them."

Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, is the last of the major Mideast leaders who
lived through and survived the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and
Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of
the state of Israel. Like all survivors of generational crisis wars,
he has devoted much of his life to try to make sure that nothing so
horrible would happen to his children and grandchildren. As the
leader of the Palestinian Authority, he is trying to find a way to
prevent the new war that he senses is coming. If he fails, and he
will, it will be the biggest personal failure of his lifetime.
al-Jazeera and Deutsche Welle and Israel National News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Mariupol,
Novorossiya, New Russia, Odessa, Transnistria, Moldova,
non-linear hybrid war, Nato, Gaza,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Hamas

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*** 9-Sep-14 World View -- Ukraine conflict and rise of ISIS put Russia's Caucasus at risk

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France's scapegoat 'Rogue trader' Jerome Kerviel is freed from prison
• Ukraine conflict and rise of ISIS put Russia's Caucasus at risk
• WHO: Ebola virus is spreading 'exponentially' in Liberia

****
**** France's scapegoat 'Rogue trader' Jerome Kerviel is freed from prison
****


Jerome Kerviel (AFP)

The "rogue trader" Jérôme Kerviel was released from French prison on
Monday, after serving part of a three-year sentence from his 2010
conviction on charges of breach of trust, forgery and entering false
data. He'll serve out the rest of his sentence under partial house
arrest. Kerviel worked at Sociéte Générale's as a trader. He placed
fraudulent trades for months and made huge sums of money for the bank.
Then his luck ran out, and his fraudulent trades failed, and he cost
the bank $7.2 billion. Kerviel acted only on behalf of SocGen, and
never tried to make any money himself.

What's so outrageous about this situation is that Kerviel is pretty
much the only person who's ever been prosecuted for causing the
financial crisis. As I've been writing for years, the evidence is
unambiguous that individual "financial engineers" at Citibank, JP
Morgan and other banks purposely created tens of trillions of dollars
of synthetic subprime mortgage backed securities and sold them, knowing that
they were fraudulent. Millions of people have lost their homes, or
gone bankrupt, or had their cars repossessed because of the financial
crisis, and no one is prosecuted except Kerviel.

An example of the fraud that was committed was exposed in 2010 by the
Senate's Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, as I described in
"Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud". According to the testimony at the hearing, what
Citibank did was as follows in simple terms: The financial engineers
took a collection of subprime-backed B rated securities, applied a
"slicing and dicing" process, and converted them into an equivalent
value of AAA-rated securities. This is mathematically impossible, and
as the Senate hearing showed, this was "smoking gun" proof of fraud.

These financial engineers were so-called because they were Gen-Xers
who had gotten Masters degrees in financial engineering in the 1990s.
They knew exactly what they were doing when they created and sold
these fraudulent securities. Their Boomer CEO bosses could not
possibly have understood the math that was used to create these
fraudulent securities, but they must have known that the process of
transforming B-rated securities to AAA-rated securities was
impossible, and had to be illegal.

The model for handling this situation occurred in the late 1980s, when
the Savings and Loan scandal occurred. The Bush 41 administration
prosecuted thousands of people, sending many to jail.

But Attorney General Eric Holder has not prosecuted a single
individual. Holder is always whining that no one respects him, and he
whines because he was treated unfairly when he was held in Contempt of
Congress for failing to produce documents. And yet, this jerk has not
prosecuted a single individual for the financial crisis since he took
office in 2008. Why? Either it's because he's totally incompetent,
or it's because these bankers have contributed millions of dollars to
Obama administration campaigns or organizations endorsed by the Obama
administration, and not prosecuting is payoff.

But at least the French sent Kerviel, who never made a penny for
himself, to jail. As I always like to say whenever I write about
Kerviel, it's good to know that we're all safe today, because the
person who caused the financial crisis has been identified, and is no
longer at large.

Or perhaps we're not so safe. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (September 5) morning was 18.97 -- almost 19 --
which is astronomically high by historical standards. This means that
the stock market is still in an enormous bubble, and the financial
crisis is going to get much worse. Deutsche Welle and AFP

****
**** Ukraine conflict and rise of ISIS put Russia's Caucasus at risk
****

In recent days we've been discussing the realignment of the Mideast
following the Gaza war and the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS). These crises, along with the conflict in
Ukraine, intersect in Russia's southern provinces in the North
Caucasus. The population of Chechnya, Dagestan, North Ossetia and the
other Caucasus provinces are largely Muslim, and have strong jihadist
presences that are kept under title control by Russia's army.

The ISIS crisis and the Ukraine crisis intersect in the North
Caucasus, because ISIS is posing a greater threat to the region, while
Russia is drawing soldiers out of the region to fight in east Ukraine.
For years, the best combat-ready Russian forces were concentrated in
the North Caucasus to fight first Chechnya's pro-independence movement
and later the insurgency that spread across the entire region. As
Russia is increasingly drawn into the conflict with Ukraine, Moscow is
forced to relocate its best prepared military units from the North
Caucasus to Ukraine. Some observers regard this as a potential
"window of opportunity" for the North Caucasian militants.

At the same time, ISIS is posing a direct threat the Caucasus.
Thousands of young Muslim men have gone to Syria to join ISIS and
become jihadists, including many from the Caucasus. Citizens of
Russia do not require visas to visit Turkey, and there are daily
flights from North Caucasus locations to Istanbul. From there,
would-be jihadists have no trouble traveling to the porous border with
Syria and crossing over.

A video recently posted by ISIS on the internet threatens Russia, and
Russia's president Vladimir Putin in particular:

<QUOTE>"Vladimir Putin, these are the Russian planes that you
sent to Bashar. Allah willing, we will take them back to your own
turf, and liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus, Allah willing. The
Islamic State is here to stay. It is spreading and has become a
caliphate. Your throne is being threatened by us. Allah will grant
us success. You can see the evidence for that in the Levant. There
are consecutive conquests here. We are coming, Allah
willing. Allah Akbar."<END QUOTE>

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Putin-appointed governor of the province of
Chechnya, immediately released a statement with a counter-threat on
Instagram:

<QUOTE>"Taking all responsibility, I declare that those who
have voiced a threat against Russia or who have mentioned the name
of our president Vladimir Putin will be destroyed right where they
made their statement. We will not wait for them to get behind the
steering wheel of a plane. They will go where his fellow
terrorists are rotting."<END QUOTE>

In the immediate future, the primary danger for Russian rule in the
North Caucasus comes from widespread discontent for economic reasons.
In the approach to the Sochi Olympics games earlier this year, Russia
had been pouring billions of extra dollars into the North Caucasus to
build infrastructure, and to reduce public discontent. But now that
source of funds has dried up, and the people in the North Caucasus are
bearing the brunt of the European sanctions that have been imposed
because of Russia's actions in Ukraine. Jamestown and Ria Novosti and Memri and
Jamestown

****
**** WHO: Ebola virus is spreading 'exponentially' in Liberia
****

Whenever an Ebola treatment center opens in Liberia, all the beds are
taken immediately. Patients fill taxis going from place to place,
hoping to find medical care. The World Health Organization (WHO) says
that more than 3,600 people have been infected with Ebola, and 2,000
have died, but as many as 20,000 will be infected. Health care
workers have been hit especially hard -- 79 of them have died.
"Transmission of the Ebola virus in Liberia is already intense and the
number of new cases is increasing exponentially," according to WHO.

Well, if that's really true then a lot more than 20,000 will be
infected. Liberia has a population of 4.4 million people, and at the
current rate of exponential transmission, 20,000 infections will be
reached in just a few more weeks, with a lot more to come. NBC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Societe Generale, Jerome Kerviel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Ukraine, Russia, Chechnya, North Caucasus,
Vladimir Putin, Ramzan Kadyrov,
World Health Organization, WHO, Liberia, Ebola

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

... These financial engineers were so-called because they were Gen-Xers who had gotten Masters degrees in financial engineering in the 1990s. They knew exactly what they were doing when they created and sold these fraudulent securities. Their Boomer CEO bosses could not possibly have understood the math that was used to create these fraudulent securities, but they must have known that the process of transforming B-rated securities to AAA-rated securities was impossible, and had to be illegal.

The model for handling this situation occurred in the late 1980s, when the Savings and Loan scandal occurred. The Bush 41 administration prosecuted thousands of people, sending many to jail.

But Attorney General Eric Holder has not prosecuted a single individual. Holder is always whining that no one respects him, and he whines because he was treated unfairly when he was held in Contempt of Congress for failing to produce documents. And yet, this jerk has not prosecuted a single individual for the financial crisis since he took office in 2008. Why? Either it's because he's totally incompetent, or it's because these bankers have contributed millions of dollars to Obama administration campaigns or organizations endorsed by the Obama
administration, and not prosecuting is payoff.

But at least the French sent Kerviel, who never made a penny for himself, to jail. As I always like to say whenever I write about Kerviel, it's good to know that we're all safe today, because the person who caused the financial crisis has been identified, and is no longer at large....

I can't disagree with this, except for one nagging issue. The things that were done by those rogue Gen Xers (and their Boomer bosses) were not prosecuted because they weren't technically illegal. They should have been. They could have been. But they weren't. That seems to be the consensus of experts in the field, including Elliot Spitzer, who has his faults but not on this issue.

So the real question is, are they illegal now? With all the overbearing foot-dragging and wheedling by the banks and their cronies in Congress, we may not know until the next time this happens. I doubt Dodd-Frank has enough teeth in it to prevent another round of sleaze-financing or effectively punish the perpetrators when it does.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> I can't disagree with this, except for one nagging issue. The
> things that were done by those rogue Gen Xers (and their Boomer
> bosses) were not prosecuted because they weren't technically
> illegal. They should have been. They could have been. But they
> weren't. That seems to be the consensus of experts in the field,
> including Elliot Spitzer, who has his faults but not on this
> issue.

> So the real question is, are they illegal now? With all the
> overbearing foot-dragging and wheedling by the banks and their
> cronies in Congress, we may not know until the next time this
> happens. I doubt Dodd-Frank has enough teeth in it to prevent
> another round of sleaze-financing or effectively punish the
> perpetrators when it does.

When you have "experts" openly lying on CNBC about stock valuations
every day, it should not be surprising that "experts" might not be
telling the truth on this issue.

The phony "crime" that the "experts" are focusing on is the predatory
lending issue, which may or may not be a crime.

But these "experts" are carefully avoiding talking about the fraud
that was committed by the bankers in the first place, purposely
creating and selling securities that they knew were faulty. The
standard excuses are, "Oh, we didn't know that housing prices wouldn't
go up forever," or, "Oh, we didn't know that unemployment would
increase," so we didn't know that the securities were faulty.

But these "financial engineers" were the most sophisticated experts in
the world. There's no doubt in my mind that a criminal probe would
reveal criminal activity in that there was an INTENT to defraud, and
that's against the law.

And the way to find that out just what the INTENT was is to launch
exactly that kind of criminal probe. But Holder refuses to do so, as
payoff to the bankers who pay billions to support Obama and his
cronies.

This kind of criminal activity on the part of Holder and Obama would
not have been tolerated in the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton,
or Bush administrations. I know what Nixon did, and it's nothing
compared to the criminal activities of Obama and Holder -- and I
haven't even mentioned using the IRS to target political enemies.
What's going on today in Washington is absolutely sickening, and this
is by far the the most criminal administration in my lifetime.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

When you have "experts" openly lying on CNBC about stock valuations every day, it should not be surprising that "experts" might not be telling the truth on this issue.

The phony "crime" that the "experts" are focusing on is the predatory lending issue, which may or may not be a crime.

But these "experts" are carefully avoiding talking about the fraud that was committed by the bankers in the first place, purposely creating and selling securities that they knew were faulty. The standard excuses are, "Oh, we didn't know that housing prices wouldn't go up forever," or, "Oh, we didn't know that unemployment would increase," so we didn't know that the securities were faulty.

But these "financial engineers" were the most sophisticated experts in the world. There's no doubt in my mind that a criminal probe would reveal criminal activity in that there was an INTENT to defraud, and that's against the law.

And the way to find that out just what the INTENT was is to launch exactly that kind of criminal probe. But Holder refuses to do so, as payoff to the bankers who pay billions to support Obama and his cronies.

This kind of criminal activity on the part of Holder and Obama would not have been tolerated in the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, or Bush administrations. I know what Nixon did, and it's nothing compared to the criminal activities of Obama and Holder -- and I haven't even mentioned using the IRS to target political enemies. What's going on today in Washington is absolutely sickening, and this is by far the the most criminal administration in my lifetime.

Again, not disagreeing with your impressions of the acts bankers performed, but the law is a sneaky beast. The unethical and immoral can be be fully legal, though they shouldn't be. Making anything illegal requires a law be in place that defines the action as illegal. More to the point, there has to be an assigned penalty for violating the law, or it's unenforceable. Bank and hedge-fund lawyers primary job is preventing law making they oppose and, barring that, preventing the establishment of an enforcement regime. They were wildly successful under GWB getting those thing in place, though the Clinton-era enforcement guys (pulled straight from Wall Street just like GWB's) got the ball rolling in earnest. Obama has chosen the staus quo, so he's guilty too, but as far as the Obama administration is concerned, I would pick Tim Geithner as the source of most of the trouble. So I'll trust Spitzer on this one. He nailed Wall Streeters with NY State law, because Federal law wasn't up to the task.

And FWIW, regurgitating the RW talking points about Obama doesn't help your credibility, not high on this forum in any case. It's easy enough to find real fault.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> Again, not disagreeing with your impressions of the acts bankers
> performed, but the law is a sneaky beast. The unethical and
> immoral can be be fully legal, though they shouldn't be. Making
> anything illegal requires a law be in place that defines the
> action as illegal. More to the point, there has to be an assigned
> penalty for violating the law, or it's unenforceable. Bank and
> hedge-fund lawyers primary job is preventing law making they
> oppose and, barring that, preventing the establishment of an
> enforcement regime. They were wildly successful under GWB getting
> those thing in place, though the Clinton-era enforcement guys
> (pulled straight from Wall Street just like GWB's) got the ball
> rolling in earnest. Obama has chosen the staus quo, so he's
> guilty too, but as far as the Obama administration is concerned, I
> would pick Tim Geithner as the source of most of the trouble. So
> I'll trust Spitzer on this one. He nailed Wall Streeters with NY
> State law, because Federal law wasn't up to the task.

> And FWIW, regurgitating the RW talking points about Obama doesn't
> help your credibility, not high on this forum in any case. It's
> easy enough to find real fault.

Once again, you don't know if the law was violated, because there was
no investigation. Holder could easily have launched a trial
investigation at, say, Bank of America, which just settled for a $15
billion fine a couple of weeks ago. Then we would know whether those
sneaky hedge-funds guys were guilty or not. We would also find out
whether Holder and Obama were complicit or not, and whether the
criminal activity extended to the Obama administration. Not
investigating is "real fault."

I'm well aware what my credibility is in this forum, so I have little
to lose by telling what I really think. But I would add that there
are more and more people in the public who are as furious at the Obama
administration as I am.

*** 10-Sep-14 World View -- Yemen faces both Shia Houthi protesters and Sunni AQAP jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen fighting Houthi rebels in capital city Sanaa
• Three Yemen soldiers killed by AQAP suicide bombers

****
**** Yemen fighting Houthi rebels in capital city Sanaa
****


Yemen soldiers (Yemen Times)

Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the world, is also one of the
most troubled. Yemen is fighting multiple wars at once.

The latest crisis is that four ethnic Houthis were shot and killed in
the capital city Sanaa. They were part of a large group of Houthis
who who have been camped out since mid-August. There have been
several conflicts with the police. On Tuesday, the Houthis tried to
force their way into the prime minister's office. The security forces
who responded claim that they were not responsible for the protesters'
deaths because they didn't shoot at the protesters, but shot in the
air.

The protests were triggered by deep cuts in fuel subsidies in July
imposed by Yemen's president Abdrabu Mansour Hadi, raising the price
of gasoline by 60% and diesel by 95%. The cuts in fuel subsidies were
demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in return for
extending a $552.9 million credit line to Yemen.

Because of widespread public unrest, particularly anti-government
rallies by Houthi rebels, Hadi last week ordered a 12% rollback in the
subsidies. However, the Houthis are refusing to accept the partial
rollback, and are demanding that the subsidies be fully restored.

The Houthis are in the Zaidi branch of the Shia Muslim religion, and
are in control of large swathes of territory in northern Yemen, along
the border with Saudi Arabia. They're considered a threat to both the
Yemen government in Sanaa and the Saudi Arabia government in Riyadh.
It's believed that Iran is funding them and supplying them with
weapons, in an attempt to destabilize both Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
SABA (Yemen) and Platts and Al Jazeera

****
**** Three Yemen soldiers killed by AQAP suicide bombers
****

While Yemen is fighting Shia Houthi rebels in northern Yemen, they're
facing Sunni jihadists in southern Yemen, in the form of Al-Qaeda on
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). AQAP has taken control of a large
region and set up terrorist training camps. Before the rise of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), AQAP was considered
the most dangerous branch of al-Qaeda to the United States. AQAP was
responsible for several attempted terrorist attacks on the United
States, including the underwear bomb that was used in the failed
Christmas day bombing in 2009. One component of AQAP, Ansar
al-Sharia, operates in both Yemen and Libya, and is believed
responsible for the September 11, 2012, attack in Benghazi that killed
U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans.

On Tuesday, a suicide bomber reached an army checkpoint in Yemen,
leading to a gunfight. A second suicide bomber sped towards the same
checkpoint and detonated his explosives, killing the soldiers. It's
estimated that in 2014 so far, AQAP attacks have killed 387 soldiers
and injured hundreds more. Atrocities by militants reached a pinnacle
in August this year as 14 off-duty soldiers travelling on a civilian
bus were kidnapped and executed by AQAP militants, four of whom were
beheaded. Yemen Times and Al-Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Sanaa, Abdrabu Mansour Hadi, Houthi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Libya, Benghazi, Ansar al-Sharia, Chris Stevens

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*** 11-Sep-14 World View -- Scotland's independence referendum is encouraging Catalonia's separatists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's Uighur migrants attempt to reach Turkey
• Britain in chaos as Scotland will vote on independence
• Next in line: Catalonia may want independence from Spain

****
**** China's Uighur migrants attempt to reach Turkey
****


Uighur protests in China (AFP)

The mostly Sunni Muslim ethnic Uighurs in China's northwest Xinjiang
province have, for over 20 years, been using various migration routes
to escape violence from Chinese officials. The original migration was
triggered by the April 1990 "Baren uprising," a confrontation with
China's army that led to the deaths of more than 1,000 Uighurs and
Chinese troops in a five-day conflict. After the breakup of the
Soviet Union in 1991, many Uighurs fled to the newly independent
Central Asian countries -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The Uighur language is "Turkic,"
mutually intelligible with Uzbek and similar to Kazakh, Kyrgyz and
Turkmen.

After the late 1990s, China succeeded in closing the door to migrant
Uighurs in Central Asian countries, and instead the migrants began
traveling to Southeast Asia. Some joined the Taliban in Afghanistan
and Pakistan, and ended up being captured by American forces and
shipped to Guantanamo.

After the extremely violent confrontations between Uighurs and Han
Chinese in Xinjiang in July, 2009 ( "China's Xinjiang province is scene of violent anti-government protests"
), a new flood of Uighurs migrated to Southeast Asia,
including Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma and Malaysia. However, China
has also been successful in closing these escape routes, and it's
believed that "China's 9-11" in Kunming was perpetrated in
retaliation. ( "2-Mar-14 World View -- Knife-wielding mob of probable Xinjiang terrorists kill 28 in southern China"
)

Dissaffected Uighur dissidents are now attempting to reach Turkey,
which would not only provide refuge, but also offer Uighurs employment
opportunities and support networks, where they may engage in
anti-Chinese advocacy activities. Jamestown

****
**** Britain in chaos as Scotland will vote on independence
****

Talk of an independent Scotland began some ten years ago, but now with
the independence referendum vote scheduled for September 18 next week,
Britain's politics are becoming chaotic. Until last week, it was
believed by most people that the referendum would fail, and so not too
many people seem to have worried about it. But a poll over the
weekend showed a sizeable shift into the "yes" column, causing London
to go into a panic and start making numerous promises to the Scots to
convince them to vote "no."

If Scotland votes "yes," then there are many unknowns. What currency
will Scotland use? Will Scotland be part of the European Union? Will
the United Kingdom lose its veto in the U.N. Security Council? How
will military and other assets be split between the two countries?
BBC

****
**** Next in line: Catalonia may want independence from Spain
****

Scotland's vote for independence is already energizing separatist
movements all over the world, and that's particularly true in Spain,
where activists in the Catalonia region are seeking independence, with
a referendum scheduled for a month from now, on November 9. The
Spanish government considers the referendum to be illegal, but it's
going ahead anyway.

Catalonia had special rights throughout the Middle Ages, and only lost
those rights with the War of the Spanish Succession that ended with
the surrender of the people of Barcelona to the French on September
11, 1714. Thursday is "Catalan National Day," commemorating the
defeat exactly 300 years ago.

During the rule of longtime dictator Francisco Franco, Catalonia's
independence movement was illegal and even the Catalan language was
banned. But in 1978, just three years after Franco's death, the
Kingdom of Spain passed a democratic constitution granting the
country's 17 regions autonomy. Catalonia and the other regions then
got their own constitutions which guaranteed self-government. Since
1980, Catalans have been electing their own parliament, have had their
own police force and have taught their children in the Catalan
language.

In the early 2000s, Spain had one of the worst real estate bubbles of
any country in the world. When the bubble crashed, the economy
plummeted, and unemployment today is above 25%. When Catalan
public protests began, Madrid placed restrictions on Catalonia
in 2010, even on the Catalan language, giving further impetus
to the independence movement.

The Scottish and Catalan independence movements may turn out to be
linked. If Scotland joins the European Union, then Catalonia will
probably do the same. But the reverse is also true. A lot of
European governments are opposed to both separatist movements, and
these governments will oppose both countries' attempts to join the EU.
Spiegel and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xinjiang, Uighur, Kunming,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma, Malaysia,
Scotland, Britain, Spain, Catalonia, Francisco Franco

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Anyone catch Obama's speech tonight?

Well we will begin air strikes in Syria.

We will lead coalitions to destroy ISIS and fight against Russian aggression.

I can feel The Regeneracy looming on the horizon.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Anyone catch Obama's speech tonight?

Well we will begin air strikes in Syria.

We will lead coalitions to destroy ISIS and fight against Russian aggression.

I can feel The Regeneracy looming on the horizon.

When do you predict this crisis will be over?

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Anyone catch Obama's speech tonight?

It was George W Obama. I was enthralled.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

It was George W Obama. I was enthralled.

Yeah. It worked so well last time. This time, let's restart the draft, force the military to deploy with no less than 30% draftees, and see how Mr. and Mrs. America still feel about foreign adventures. In fact, it should be mandated in the Constitution that the military must be comprised of a broad cross-section of the nation at all times - especially in times of war. Democracies have no business fighting foreign wars with out the full buy-in of the public ... including their skin.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> Yeah. It worked so well last time. This time, let's restart the
> draft, force the military to deploy with no less than 30%
> draftees, and see how Mr. and Mrs. America still feel about
> foreign adventures. In fact, it should be mandated in the
> Constitution that the military must be comprised of a broad
> cross-section of the nation at all times - especially in times of
> war. Democracies have no business fighting foreign wars with out
> the full buy-in of the public ... including their skin.

It's a very interesting situation. Public acceptance of overseas
military action has increased noticeably in the last two weeks,
according to polls. A Crisis era Regeneracy is supposed to unify the
country behind the leader taking whatever action he wants to fight the
crisis, and we're seeing the early signs of this unity.

Just think, David, Barack Obama may send hundreds of thousands of
Americans off to war, and turn out to be the Great Hero of this Crisis
era. Wouldn't that be exciting?

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

In fact, it should be mandated in the Constitution that the military must be comprised of a broad cross-section of the nation at all times - especially in times of war. Democracies have no business fighting foreign wars with out the full buy-in of the public ... including their skin.

Agreed. And no exceptions for college students either. The draft should run the full gamut of the SES.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

It's a very interesting situation. Public acceptance of overseas military action has increased noticeably in the last two weeks, according to polls. A Crisis era Regeneracy is supposed to unify the country behind the leader taking whatever action he wants to fight the crisis, and we're seeing the early signs of this unity.

Just think, David, Barack Obama may send hundreds of thousands of Americans off to war, and turn out to be the Great Hero of this Crisis era. Wouldn't that be exciting?

What crisis? The deaths of two decapitated journalists constitutes a near-mythic tragedy, but it isn't a national crisis by any stretch of the imagination.