Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Yeah. It worked so well last time. This time, let's restart the draft, force the military to deploy with no less than 30% draftees, and see how Mr. and Mrs. America still feel about foreign adventures. In fact, it should be mandated in the Constitution that the military must be comprised of a broad cross-section of the nation at all times - especially in times of war. Democracies have no business fighting foreign wars with out the full buy-in of the public ... including their skin.

Do you think drafting this many people will actually solve anything? The government will continue on with the foreign adventures no matter how many people die. The people at the top command don't care. If they don't listen to people now, why would they listen to people after that?

Shouldn't the goal be to minimize total damage rather than throwing people into the meat grinder for "principles"? Principles for the sake of principles is stupidity in my opinion. The net result is what matters.

Originally Posted by Anc' Mariner

Agreed. And no exceptions for college students either. The draft should run the full gamut of the SES.

As things stand right now, the only "student deferment" lets you finish the semester (or the year, if you're within a year of finishing) before having to report.

Originally Posted by decadeologist1011

Do you think drafting this many people will actually solve anything? The government will continue on with the foreign adventures no matter how many people die. The people at the top command don't care. If they don't listen to people now, why would they listen to people after that?

Not unless the Corporate Right gets a trifecta of the Presidency and both Houses of Congress, after which it will entrench itself indefinitely, war or not. If it can make elections non-competitive, then Corporate America will get whatever wars it wants, and not only to snuff out ISIS. Corporate America will have wars for profit (military contracts) and, more cynically, captive markets for labor and raw materials as well as customers.

With its power beyond assault, a Corporate State would be capable of snuffing out practically any opposition (think of the Dirty Wars in South America) -- even to war -- until something falls apart. A benign America is the 800-pound gorilla. A monstrous America is an 800-pound crocodile.

Originally Posted by Earl and Mooch

As things stand right now, the only "student deferment" lets you finish the semester (or the year, if you're within a year of finishing) before having to report.

I don't understand this. If we have an all-volunteer army, why would anyone need a deferment?

Originally Posted by decadeologist1011

Do you think drafting this many people will actually solve anything? The government will continue on with the foreign adventures no matter how many people die. The people at the top command don't care. If they don't listen to people now, why would they listen to people after that?

No they won't, and if they try, they will be thrown out of office. Most people take the lives of their children, siblings and themselves too seriously to let a bunch of knuckle dragging yahoos send their family members off to die, unless the reason is really solid. This is not one of those cases.

*** 12-Sep-14 World View -- President George W. Obama pledges to 'degrade, destroy' ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President George W. Obama presents his ISIS strategy
• Obama pledges 'to degrade and ultimately destroy' ISIS
• CIA increases estimate: ISIS has 20,000 to 31,500 fighters
• Iran faces a double threat from ISIS

****
**** President George W. Obama presents his ISIS strategy
****


What's the name of this President? I forget. (WashingtonsBlog.com)

It was very hard to escape the impression, listening to President
Obama's speech on Wednesday evening, that he would rather have all his
teeth pulled out than have to give that speech, which could have been
given by President George W. Bush, if he had had two more terms.
President Obama's entire foreign policy has always been to ask what
President Bush would do and then do the opposite, but the rise of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) has forced him in the
past few weeks to sound more and more like his predecessor.

His attempts to be the non-Bush were comical. Here's how he struggled
to distinguish what he's doing from what Bush did:

<QUOTE>"But I want the American people to understand how this
effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign
soil. This counterterrorism campaign will be waged through a
steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist,
using our air power and our support for partner forces on the
ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us,
while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have
successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years. And it is
consistent with the approach I outlined earlier this year: to use
force against anyone who threatens America’s core interests, but
to mobilize partners wherever possible to address broader
challenges to international order."<END QUOTE>

So this is not a war -- that's a Bush thing. This is counterterrorism
-- that's an Obama thing, and it's different.

Secretary of State John Kerry emphasized this when he was asked
in an interview whether we were at war:

<QUOTE>"We're engaged in a major counterterrorism operation,
and it's going to be a long-term counterterrorism operation. I
think war is the wrong terminology and analogy but the fact is
that we are engaged in a very significant global effort to curb
terrorist activity.

I don't think people need to get into war fever on this. I think
they have to view it as a heightened level of counter terrorist
activity...but it's not dissimilar to what we've been doing the
last few years with al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and in
Yemen and elsewhere."<END QUOTE>

I try to write about President Obama on as few days as I can get away
with, because I criticize him, and then people criticize me for
criticizing him. But I just never have the feeling that Obama lives
on this planet, or has any idea what's going on on this planet. It's
just one bizarre thing after another. I'll come back to the
comparisons with Yemen and Somalia below. But we're not at war? Are
you kidding me? Wasn't it just last week that Vice President Joe
Biden said we'd follow ISIS to "the gates of hell"?

It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a
dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of
people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. Thus,
Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do is
irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of
the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause
nor prevent the great events of history. The corollary to this
principle, which I've discussed many times since President Obama took
office in 2009, is that going beyond pure rhetoric and politics, there
will be little effective difference between Obama's presidency and
President George W. Bush's hypothetical third and fourth terms, if
such had taken place.

Indeed, Obama frequently said that the world would change on January
20, 2009, as soon as he was inaugurated as President. His goal was to
heal the world with his mere presence -- cure global warming, provide
universal health care, close Guantanamo, leave Iraq in peace, bring a
two-state solution to Palestinians and Israelis, beat the Taliban in
Afghanistan, restore the stock market bubble, and dismantle President
Bush's war against terror. Nothing would be beyond his reach. And
yet, it would be hard to find any real effective difference with how
any of these policies would have unfolded in additional Bush
administrations.

President Obama and John Kerry have had one foreign policy debacle
after another. Now they're starting on something new, the conflict
with ISIS, and they're playing with words. We can hope that this
won't be yet another debacle, but this is a very bad omen. White House and CBS News

****
**** Obama pledges 'to degrade and ultimately destroy' ISIS
****

President Obama began his Wednesday night speech with:

<QUOTE>"My fellow Americans, tonight I want to speak to you
about what the United States will do with our friends and allies
to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as
ISIL."<END QUOTE>

What can he possibly mean by "destroy"? I can't think of a single
example of a terrorist group being "destroyed," and he certainly
provided no such examples. Let's make a list of the comparisons that
he and Kerry did make in the excerpts quoted above:

• Al-Qaeda: Kerry said, "it's not dissimilar to what we've been
  doing the last few years with al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan."
  Is he claiming that al-Qaeda has been "destroyed"? The Taliban is
  surging in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. There's every reason to
  believe that as soon as American troops have departed, later this
  year, Afghanistan will once again be governed by the Taliban.
  
• Yemen: Is Obama claiming that Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula
  (AQAP), headquartered in Yemen, has been "destroyed"? Coincidentally,
  I just wrote about Yemen a few days ago ( "10-Sep-14 World View -- Yemen faces both Shia Houthi protesters and Sunni AQAP jihadists"
  ), and Yemen's government
  is in crisis from both AQAP and another terror group, the
  Houthis.
  
• Somalia: The U.S. was forced to withdraw from Somalia in 1993
  because of the famous "Blackhawk Down" incident. The Somali forces
  that defeated the U.S. were later alleged to be linked to al-Qaeda,
  and a group subsequently named al-Shabaab. As we wrote last month in
  "30-Aug-14 World View -- Al-Shabaab wants jihadists from UK, Germany and Minnesota"
  ,
  al-Shabaab is drawing would-be jihadists from Minneapolis, and was
  responsible for the horrific Westgate Mall terror attack last year in
  Nairobi, Kenya. Obama bragged that American bombs did kill one
  al-Shabaab leader a few days ago, but al-Shabaab is nowhere near
  "destroyed."

One of Obama's big problems is that he keeps making ridiculous
promises that he would know can't be kept if he understood what was
going on in the world. The worst one was the chemical weapons "red
line" in Syria that would trigger an American military response.
Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad continues to use chemical
weapons to this day, targeting innocent women and children with barrel
bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.

So now Obama has committed to "destroying" ISIS. How the hell
is he going to do that?

And here's one more thing from his speech:

<QUOTE>"Moreover, I have made it clear that we will hunt down
terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are. That
means I will not hesitate to take action against ISIL in Syria, as
well as Iraq. This is a core principle of my presidency: If you
threaten America, you will find no safe haven."<END QUOTE>

What's he talking about? Is he really going to take action against
ISIS in Syria, when he refused to take action after Bashar al-Assad
killed hundreds of people with Sarin gas?

When Obama was campaigning in 2008, he promised that as soon as took
office then the earth would heal and the tides would recede. Obama is
still making ridiculous promises. He just can't stop himself. Let's
hope this doesn't end up as another debacle. White House

****
**** CIA increases estimate: ISIS has 20,000 to 31,500 fighters
****

The CIA now estimates that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS) is made up of anywhere between 20,000 to 31,500 fighters.
The CIA previously put the number at 10,000, and is now revising it
upward by a factor of 2-3. The Hill

****
**** Iran faces a double threat from ISIS
****

Iran is a Shia Muslim state, but Iran's southeast province, on the
border with Pakistan, is Balochistan, which has a Sunni majority
population. The rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS) is presenting a serious internal threat to Iran. Just as
would-be jihadists from around the world are heading for Syria to
train with ISIS, the same is true of would-be jihadists from
Balochistan, fueled by a combination of extreme poverty and
decades-long resentment by the local Sunni population against the
policies of the Shia-dominated central government in Tehran. I've
reported several times about Jundullah, a terrorist group that has
perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard
stations in southeastern Iran. Jundullah's successor in Balochistan
is Jaysh al-Adl (Army of Justice), and it's feared that ISIS and Jaysh
al-Adl will link up with disaffected citizens of Balochistan, and
threaten the Tehran government.

That's ISIS's internal threat to Iran. The external threat is to
Iran's two closest allies in the region, the governments of Syria and
Iraq. In particular, it's feared that the conflict in Iraq will spill
over onto Iran's soil, and some unconfirmed reports indicate that's
already happened. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, John Kerry,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Somalia, Kenya, al-Shabaab, Minneapolis, Westgate Mall,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, Balochistan, Jundullah, Jaysh al-Adl, Army of Justice

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by decadeologist1011

Shouldn't the goal be to minimize total damage rather than throwing people into the meat grinder for "principles"? Principles for the sake of principles is stupidity in my opinion. The net result is what matters.

The idea is that the draft makes political insiders reconsider their wars, because it's their own flesh and blood on the line. If they have any.

As far as principles go. Large empires usually don't have them. Little states and young states on the other hand require them.

Past glory isn't enough. Every soldier with a brain needs to ask him/herself: what am I fighting for? What share do I - or people like me, since war, real war, is supremely dangerous - have in the outcome? And how will I be viewed by others: in my own country, in the places I fought, by the surviving family members of my allies and my enemies?

Yes, principles matter. If you are putting your life and others lives on the line, they are the only thing that matters.

Originally Posted by Anc' Mariner

The idea is that the draft makes political insiders reconsider their wars, because it's their own flesh and blood on the line. If they have any.

As far as principles go. Large empires usually don't have them. Little states and young states on the other hand require them.

Past glory isn't enough. Every soldier with a brain needs to ask him/herself: what am I fighting for? What share do I - or people like me, since war, real war, is supremely dangerous - have in the outcome? And how will I be viewed by others: in my own country, in the places I fought, by the surviving family members of my allies and my enemies?

Yes, principles matter. If you are putting your life and others lives on the line, they are the only thing that matters.

And the draft forces people to fight for causes they don't believe in. The only reason people are fighting in wars now are because the military offers free tuition.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I don't understand this. If we have an all-volunteer army, why would anyone need a deferment?

If there were to be a draft, there would not be deferments except to finish the semester or to graduate within a year.

I am of the opinion that Obama should just keep his mouth shut. "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, then to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

Originally Posted by decadeologist1011

And the draft forces people to fight for causes they don't believe in. The only reason people are fighting in wars now are because the military offers free tuition.

Yes, that's true. Popular wars are fought by the willing and unwilling alike. It's part of the cost of living where you live. If it's too high a price, you should consider moving. Maintaining a Praetorian Guard, on the other hand, is the opposite of what is needed in a democracy.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Yes, that's true. Popular wars are fought by the willing and unwilling alike. It's part of the cost of living where you live. If it's too high a price, you should consider moving. Maintaining a Praetorian Guard, on the other hand, is the opposite of what is needed in a democracy.

What if these wars aren't needed for protection? It's kind of hard to take seriously if you've been hearing fear mongering half of your life. I think that the draft is slavery, slavery that forces people into getting killed or maimed for life. How fair is it if someone wanted to be a doctor but is paralyzed for life, having to live on welfare in a dangerous neighborhood?

*** 13-Sep-14 World View -- Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel to investigate its own possible war crimes in Gaza war
• Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court
• Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS

****
**** Israel to investigate its own possible war crimes in Gaza war
****


Silhouettes of Israeli soldiers in Gaza, July 12, 2014 (DPA)

Israel's Defense Force (IDF) has launched criminal problems over
several incidents involving it soldiers during the Gaza war.
In a July 16 incident, Israeli forces fired on a beach in Gaza City,
killing four children who were playing there. Just over a week later,
a UN school in the northern city of Beit Hanun was shelled by the
Israelis, killing at least 15 people.

This will be part of an overall review by IDF. There will
be 12 main review teams, each headed by a high-level IDF officer.
Among the issues being reviewed are: the use of firepower during the
operation; the maneuvering of ground forces; the IDF's readiness to
deal with the tunnel threat; the decision to amass forces at a staging
ground despite it being within range of mortar fire; the use of
obsolete armored personnel carriers in fighting; intelligence; air
defense; and coordination between the air, ground and naval forces.

Pro-Hamas activists are condemning the investigations as a
"masquerade" that will lead to a "whitewash."

Another motive attributed to Israel is to head off an investigation by
the International Criminal Court (ICC). Generally speaking, the ICC
can gain jurisdiction over war crimes cases only if the country
involved is unwilling or unable to investigate itself. Deutsche Welle and Israel Hayom

****
**** Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court
****

Senior Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh is pressuring Mahmoud Abbas,
president of the Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah), to sign a document
that would give the International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction
to investigate alleged war crimes by Israel in the recent Gaza
war. In a press statement, Haniyeh said:

<QUOTE>"The Palestinian factions and Palestinian community
all agree on the need for Abbas to go to the ICC and sign the Rome
Statute in order to prosecute the leaders of the Zionist enemy for
their crimes committed against the Palestinian people. ...

Hamas signed the document urging Abbas to sign the Rome Statute,
and the signing of this is the right of all the victims. Stalling
the signing of the Statute is considered a concession of their
rights and offensive to the Palestinian people and their
struggle."<END QUOTE>

Haniyeh's remarks come as pro-Hamas officials and activists express
puzzlement and outrage that Abbas in August explicity refused to sign
the document that would give ICC jurisdiction over Israel's alleged
war crimes. Abbas is the head of the Hamas-Fatah unity government,
and so his approval is required before the ICC can act on any document
provided by the Palestinians.

Various reports give several possible reasons for Abbas's refusal:

• One analyst suggested that the ICC submission was a major
  piece of leverage that Abbas holds in negotiations with the Israelis,
  and that Abbas wants to hold it back until it can be used with
  maximum effect.
  
• Several analysts suggested that Abbas had made an under-the-table
  deal with Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is
  possible, and not as sinister as it seems, because an ICC submission
  would probably mean the end of all negotiations, and Abbas would
  really like to restart the "peace process" negotiations.
  
• Opening an ICC investigation against Israel would also trigger an
  ICC investigation against war crimes by Hamas, and it's believed that
  Israel has collected a great deal of unpublished evidence of Hamas
  shooting rockets indiscriminately into Israel from heavily populated
  Gaza neighborhoods, which would itself be a war crime. As we reported in July
  , Palestinian lawyers
  have expressed concern that Hamas would be found guilty of war crimes,
  while Israel would escape because the Israeli army warned Gaza people
  to evacuate their homes before they were bombed.

Another reason is related to the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
that we've written
about in several articles. There is a growing fault line separating
Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus PA/Fatah versus the Hamas
plus Qatar plus Turkey. To put bluntly, Abbas considers Hamas to be
his enemy, and does not want to empower Hamas in a way that would
happen if Abbas enabled an ICC war crime investigation of Israel.
Ma'aN News (Bethlehem) and Middle East Eye and
Middle East Monitor and Israel National News

****
**** Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS
****

The plans announced in President Obama's Wednesday speech to form a
"coalition of the willing" to fight the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS) have been running into some roadblocks.

Turkey made a surprise announcement on Thursday that it would not be
participating, and would not allow American warplanes to use its air
bases. Turkey has internal political considerations, and ISIS is
holding 49 Turkish diplomats as hostages.

Arab states, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are reluctant
to participate because they would face retaliation by jihadist
terrorist groups. Nato allies Britain and Germany are also reluctant,
and France is completely ruling out participation. Politicians in
many countries note that President Obama has reneged on commitments
before, and so many of these countries are reluctant to commit their
own resources when it's not clear that Obama is fully committed.

It's possible that some of these countries will provide "quiet
cooperation," but right now it looks like America will be the only
country performing air strikes, and no country except Iraq will
provide combat troops. I have not heard any analyst indicate that the
project will be successful without substantially more cooperation, and
right now there are few signs that that cooperation is coming. It's
possible that officials in some countries will change their minds once
the operation begins. CNN and Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Authority,
Mahmoud Abbas, Ismail Haniyeh, Jordan, Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, Egypt

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*** 14-Sep-14 World View -- ISIS execution of Britain's David Haines may change US/UK military dynamics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia sends massive new 'humanitarian convoy' into Ukraine
• Russian Orthodox fanatic considers Vladimir Putin to be united with God
• ISIS execution of Britain's David Haines may change US/UK military dynamics

****
**** Russia sends massive new 'humanitarian convoy' into Ukraine
****


Massive Russian truck convoy with unknown contents arrives in Russian-held territory in east Ukraine, with no permission and no inspections (Ria Novosti)

Without asking for permission or permitting inspections, Russia on
Saturday sent a huge convoy of 220 trucks across the border of
Ukraine, into the region of east Ukraine controlled by Russian army
and pro-Russian anti-government forces. Ukraine officials are calling
it "a direct invasion." Russia is calling it "humanitarian aid," but
it could just as well be heavy weapons or even hundreds of Russian
soldiers, reminiscent of the story of the Trojan Horse. Ria Novosti and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Russian Orthodox fanatic considers Vladimir Putin to be united with God
****

Every religion has its religious fanatics, and one of the leading
fanatics in the Russian Orthodox religion is Dmitry Tsorionov, who
uses "Enteo" as a pseudonym. According to Tsorionov in a recent
lecture in Moscow:

<QUOTE>"A divine light at the moment when [Putin] left his
baptism transfixed his essence, restoring the destroyed depths of
his being, and giving him an anthological ability to acquire
celestial energy. ...

Without a doubt he does good deeds, and for this God gives him
grace. He strengthens his presence in Vladimir Putin, and
Vladimir Putin becomes a living temple. God has been placed inside
this little Vladimir Putin. This is a fact."<END QUOTE>

Supposedly, Tsorionov statements are drawn from the theology of the
Byzantine Empire and the "godliness" of the emperor. But his bizarre
statements may be more political than religious. He's anti-abortion,
anti-homosexuality, and opposes teaching evolution in schools, saying
that the universe was created 7,521 years ago, on the first of March,
a Sunday. He's part of a growing group of ultra-conservatives who
oppose any Western influence, even Apple Corp.'s logo, complaining
that the half-bitten apple promotes original sin. These groups are
occasionally violent against homosexuals and other politically
incorrect groups.


Alina Kabaeva, Putin's alleged long-time mistress (pravda.ru)

According to Tsorionov:

<QUOTE>"We kill tens of millions of our children. We betray
our wives. We don’t go to Church. We smoke hashish. Meanwhile,
Vladimir Vladimirovich, the boss, is praying seriously for us
all. Of course we are not worthy."<END QUOTE>

Perhaps Tsorionov is ignoring the years of reports about his mistress,
2004 Olympics award-winning
rhythmical gymnast Alina Kabaeva. RFERL and
Ria Novosti (8/2013)

****
**** ISIS execution of Britain's David Haines may change US/UK military dynamics
****

A new internet video from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS) begins with a clip from Britain's prime minister David Cameron
saying:

<QUOTE>"We have to stick to the very clear foreign policy and
the very clear strategy we have, which is to work with the new
Iraqi government to help make sure the Kurds get the arms they
need to fight off these brutal, extremist militants, to work with
our allies, and as I've said to use everything we have — our aid,
our diplomacy, and our military prowess — to make sure that with
our allies we do everything we can to put pressure on Islamic
State, the supporting organization..."<END QUOTE>

Next, the video shows the ISIS executioner, saying the following:

<QUOTE>"This British man has to pay the price for your
promise, Cameron, to arm the Peshmerga against the Islamic State.
Ironically, he has spent a decade of his life serving under the
brutal air force that is responsible for delivering those arms.

Your evil alliance with America, which continues to strike the
Muslims of Iraq and most recently bombed the Haditha Dam, will
only accelerate your destruction, and playing the role of the
obedient lapdog, Cameron, will only drag you and your people into
another bloody and unwinnable war."<END QUOTE>

Cameron called an emergency meeting of his government early Sunday
morning to discuss how to deal with the crisis.

Britain recently raised its national terror threat level to "severe,"
meaning that a terrorist attack is "highly likely," though not
necessarily imminent. The announcement of this change referred to the
approximately 500 British citizens that have traveled to fight in
Syria, with 200 already having returned home.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, most of the world is
deep into a generational Crisis era, with 69 years having passed since
the end of World War II. During this era, the population reacts in a
somewhat panicky manner to what are called "regeneracy events." These
events appear to pose an existential threat to a country or its way of
life, and they regenerate civic unity behind the leader and his call
for military action.

We've seen this fairly dramatically in the last few weeks, when polls
have shown a big swing among Americans from not favoring military
action against ISIS to almost 2/3rds of Americans saying that military
action against ISIS is in the nation's interest. This is an example
of how quickly a regeneracy event can change public opinion during a
generational Crisis era.

In the last few days, since President Obama's televised speech on
Wednesday, Britain has been among those countries showing reluctant to
join America's "coalition of the willing" to fight ISIS. So it will
be interesting to watch closely in the next few days to see if public
opinion in Britain shifts the way it did in America, and whether
Cameron will announce that Britain will join America's conflict with
Syria.

On Satuday evening, Cameron said the murder was "despicable and
appalling," and added:

<QUOTE>"It is an act of pure evil. My heart goes out to the
family of David Haines who have shown extraordinary courage and
fortitude throughout this ordeal. We will do everything in our
power to hunt down these murderers and ensure they face justice,
however long it takes."<END QUOTE>

That's already a pretty strong threat, and suggests that some kind of
military response from Britain is coming.

A related question is this: Why did ISIS do this? What do they have
to gain? It almost looks like they WANT Britain to join the U.S. in
fighting ISIS.

I certainly am no mind reader, particularly of ISIS leader Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi, but this action is quite consistent with two decades of
jihadist terrorist attacks. As I've written many times , al-Qaeda
has been using Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution as a model. The
goal of al-Qaeda has been to trigger an uprising that would repeat
that revolution in another country, putting al-Qaeda in control. In
my view, ISIS is following the same strategy: by bringing airstrikes
from America and Britain into Syria and Iraq, al-Baghdadi hopes to
trigger an anti-Western uprising that will defeat Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad and put al-Baghdadi and his "Islamic State" in power.
NY News and BBC

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Trojan Horse,
Russian Orthodox, Dmitry Tsorionov, Alina Kabaeva, Vladimir Putin,
Britain, David Haines, David Cameron, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

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*** 15-Sep-14 World View -- US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases
• African jihadist group pledges loyalty to ISIS
• ISIS recruiting women from America and Britain

****
**** US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases
****


Photo taken by surveillance plane of Chinese J-11 fighter jet dangerously harassing the surveillance plane last month(DOD)

The US and Malaysia are in discussions to permit US surveillance
flights in the South China Sea to fly out of East Malaysian air bases,
on the southern rim of the South China Sea. This is certain to
further infuriate the Chinese, who blame the US for being
"troublemakers," as China annexes other countries' territories in the
same way that the Nazis annexed territories in Europe.

China has been pursuing a military "salami slicing strategy" to annex
South China Sea territories belonging to other countries. China has
annexed several islands and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to
Vietnam and the Philippines, and is threatening to annex other
territories belonging to Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.

Because of China's annexations, China's relations with Vietnam and the
Philippines have become increasingly hostile. China's relations with
Malaysia have remained friendly, mainly because the Malaysians don't
want to get the Chinese angry, even as China is preparing to annex
Malaysian territory. (See "29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal"
)

Speaking on September 8, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) ADM Jonathan
W. Greenert said:

<QUOTE>"[R]ecently, the Malaysians have offered us to fly
detachments of P-8s out of East Malaysia. You can see the
closeness to the South China Sea. So we have opportunities and we
ought to continue to nurture them."<END QUOTE>

According to Greenert, the offer is made in appreciation for American
help during the search for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 (MH370) that
disappeared on March 8, and has never been found. A staging site in
East Malaysia would enable the Navy’s maritime patrol aircraft easier
access for operating over the South China Sea and shipping lanes such
as the Strait of Malacca and the Sunda Strait, through which much of
the world’s commerce passes.

Malaysia's defense minister denies that any such permission
has been granted, but apparently the discussions have been going
on for some time.

This comes at a time when China is increasingly harassing US surveillance planes
flying over
international waters in the South China Sea. Recently, a Chinese jet
fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet to a U.S. surveillance
plane in international waters. The incident is reminiscent of an
April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor crashed into a
U.S. surveillance aircraft off the southern China coast. The Chinese
aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was killed. The U.S.
plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island, and its 24
crew members were imprisoned for 10 days. Sea Power Magazine and Malaysia Chronicle

****
**** African jihadist group pledges loyalty to ISIS
****

A new African jihadist group has broken off from Al-Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and pledged loyalty to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,
the leader of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).

The splinter group is called 'Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria',
and AQIM central region commander Khaled Abu Suleimane, whose real
name is Gouri Abdelmalek, claimed leadership of the new group, and
said in a statement:

<QUOTE>"You have in the Islamic Maghreb men if you order them
they will obey you. The Maghreb has deviated from the true
path."<END QUOTE>

This is the latest blow to al-Qaeda in the rise of ISIS at the expense
of al-Qaeda, thanks to a generational split
between the two organizations, pitting the drawing power of
old geezers like Ayman al-Zawahiri running al-Qaeda versus the
youthful al-Baghdadi running ISIS. Even worse for al-Qaeda, the
organization hasn't been able to pull off anything anywhere near as
spectacular as the 9/11/2001 attacks. But ISIS has been spectacular
in a different way, taking over large areas in Syria and Iraq and
decapitating Western journalists, the things that create erotic
fantasies in would-be jihadists and their jihadist-girlfriends.
Reuters and Al Jazeera

****
**** ISIS recruiting women from America and Britain
****

The Minneapolis-St. Paul area, with its large community of immigrants
from Somalia, has been a source of several dozen recruits for the
al-Qaeda linked Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab. In particular,
Minneapolis jihadists were involved in the horrific three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall
in
Nairobi Kenya, in September of last year.

Now US law enforcement is investigating what may be a new trend --
teenage girls from the Minneapolis-St. Paul area who are flying to
Syria to join the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).
They may join ISIS with dreams of marrying a big, strong jihadist, but
monitoring of extremists' social media accounts and other writings
shows that male jihadis regard women counterparts as little more than
mating partners. According to one analyst, "ISIS is recruiting these
women in order to be baby factories. They are seeing the establishment
of an Islamic state and now they need to populate the state."

ISIS is also recruiting Muslim girls and women in Europe, particularly
from Britain and France. Researchers are discovering that many of
them are being used to run "brothels" to hold Iraqi girls captured by
the ISIS militias, to be used by the ISIS militia terrorists as they
please. Reuters and Huffington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Malaysia, China, South China Sea,
salami-slicing strategy, James Shoal, Jonathan W Greenert,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM,
Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
Khaled Abu Suleimane, Gouri Abdelmalek,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Somalia, Minneapolis, St. Paul, al-Shabaab

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 15-Sep-14 World View -- US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases
• African jihadist group pledges loyalty to ISIS
• ISIS recruiting women from America and Britain

****
**** US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases
****


Photo taken by surveillance plane of Chinese J-11 fighter jet dangerously harassing the surveillance plane last month(DOD)

The US and Malaysia are in discussions to permit US surveillance
flights in the South China Sea to fly out of East Malaysian air bases,
on the southern rim of the South China Sea. This is certain to
further infuriate the Chinese, who blame the US for being
"troublemakers," as China annexes other countries' territories in the
same way that the Nazis annexed territories in Europe.

China has been pursuing a military "salami slicing strategy" to annex
South China Sea territories belonging to other countries. China has
annexed several islands and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to
Vietnam and the Philippines, and is threatening to annex other
territories belonging to Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.

Because of China's annexations, China's relations with Vietnam and the
Philippines have become increasingly hostile. China's relations with
Malaysia have remained friendly, mainly because the Malaysians don't
want to get the Chinese angry, even as China is preparing to annex
Malaysian territory. (See "29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal"
)

Speaking on September 8, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) ADM Jonathan
W. Greenert said:

<QUOTE>"[R]ecently, the Malaysians have offered us to fly
detachments of P-8s out of East Malaysia. You can see the
closeness to the South China Sea. So we have opportunities and we
ought to continue to nurture them."<END QUOTE>

According to Greenert, the offer is made in appreciation for American
help during the search for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 (MH370) that
disappeared on March 8, and has never been found. A staging site in
East Malaysia would enable the Navy’s maritime patrol aircraft easier
access for operating over the South China Sea and shipping lanes such
as the Strait of Malacca and the Sunda Strait, through which much of
the world’s commerce passes.

Malaysia's defense minister denies that any such permission
has been granted, but apparently the discussions have been going
on for some time.

This comes at a time when China is increasingly harassing US surveillance planes
flying over
international waters in the South China Sea. Recently, a Chinese jet
fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet to a U.S. surveillance
plane in international waters. The incident is reminiscent of an
April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor crashed into a
U.S. surveillance aircraft off the southern China coast. The Chinese
aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was killed. The U.S.
plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island, and its 24
crew members were imprisoned for 10 days. Sea Power Magazine and Malaysia Chronicle

****
**** African jihadist group pledges loyalty to ISIS
****

A new African jihadist group has broken off from Al-Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and pledged loyalty to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,
the leader of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).

The splinter group is called 'Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria',
and AQIM central region commander Khaled Abu Suleimane, whose real
name is Gouri Abdelmalek, claimed leadership of the new group, and
said in a statement:

<QUOTE>"You have in the Islamic Maghreb men if you order them
they will obey you. The Maghreb has deviated from the true
path."<END QUOTE>

This is the latest blow to al-Qaeda in the rise of ISIS at the expense
of al-Qaeda, thanks to a generational split
between the two organizations, pitting the drawing power of
old geezers like Ayman al-Zawahiri running al-Qaeda versus the
youthful al-Baghdadi running ISIS. Even worse for al-Qaeda, the
organization hasn't been able to pull off anything anywhere near as
spectacular as the 9/11/2001 attacks. But ISIS has been spectacular
in a different way, taking over large areas in Syria and Iraq and
decapitating Western journalists, the things that create erotic
fantasies in would-be jihadists and their jihadist-girlfriends.
Reuters and Al Jazeera

****
**** ISIS recruiting women from America and Britain
****

The Minneapolis-St. Paul area, with its large community of immigrants
from Somalia, has been a source of several dozen recruits for the
al-Qaeda linked Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab. In particular,
Minneapolis jihadists were involved in the horrific three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall
in
Nairobi Kenya, in September of last year.

Now US law enforcement is investigating what may be a new trend --
teenage girls from the Minneapolis-St. Paul area who are flying to
Syria to join the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).
They may join ISIS with dreams of marrying a big, strong jihadist, but
monitoring of extremists' social media accounts and other writings
shows that male jihadis regard women counterparts as little more than
mating partners. According to one analyst, "ISIS is recruiting these
women in order to be baby factories. They are seeing the establishment
of an Islamic state and now they need to populate the state."

ISIS is also recruiting Muslim girls and women in Europe, particularly
from Britain and France. Researchers are discovering that many of
them are being used to run "brothels" to hold Iraqi girls captured by
the ISIS militias, to be used by the ISIS militia terrorists as they
please. Reuters and Huffington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Malaysia, China, South China Sea,
salami-slicing strategy, James Shoal, Jonathan W Greenert,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM,
Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
Khaled Abu Suleimane, Gouri Abdelmalek,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Somalia, Minneapolis, St. Paul, al-Shabaab

Permanent web link to this article
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One initial steps both the US and UK can take with ISIS is to deal with our own Citizens who've joined. Pull from the applicable DHS databases lists of all Citizens who've left the country, then sift down from there. Cross correlate the sifted list. As people from the sifted lists return, investigate them. Any who don't return also need to be investigated using CIA assets. Actual lists of ISIS members will emerge. Then gather evidence and prosecute for treason. Thankfully here in the US the most severe Federal Penalty for treason is death. At very least, the number executed should equal the number of Americans killed by ISIS thus far. Repeat as needed.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

One initial steps both the US and UK can take with ISIS is to deal with our own Citizens who've joined. Pull from the applicable DHS databases lists of all Citizens who've left the country, then sift down from there. Cross correlate the sifted list. As people from the sifted lists return, investigate them. Any who don't return also need to be investigated using CIA assets. Actual lists of ISIS members will emerge. Then gather evidence and prosecute for treason. Thankfully here in the US the most severe Federal Penalty for treason is death. At very least, the number executed should equal the number of Americans killed by ISIS thus far. Repeat as needed.

Mimesis. Eye for an eye.

You aren't fighting people though. You are fighting ideas. After 20 years - actually make that 30, since Khomeini - you still don't get it. You can't kill ideas. Either you have a better and more perfected ideal, or you don't.

You can never beat the Muslims' errors until some of you get in touch with who you are. Fully in touch, to your roots. Most of you will kick against the pricks rather than accept that responsibility.

So be it.

*** 16-Sep-14 World View -- Saudis push to avoid MERS outbreak as Hajj approaches

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudis push to avoid MERS outbreak as Hajj approaches
• Pakistan's umbrella Taliban group appears to be disintegrating
• The center of international piracy moves from Somalia to Singapore

****
**** Saudis push to avoid MERS outbreak as Hajj approaches
****


Camel traders can become infected with MERS by contact with camels (BBC)

With millions of Muslims from around the world about to arrive in
Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for their once in a lifetime Hajj pilgrimage on
October 2-7, Saudi officials are pushing hard to prevent an outbreak
of MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus).
There is particular sensitivity this year, as the Ebola virus spreads
out of control in Western Africa. Crowded Hajj events are the perfect
venues for one infected person to spread MERS to several other people,
causing a chain reaction.

Since the first cases of MERS were identified in 2012, there have been
855 cases and 333 deaths, with a 40% death rate. However, MERS
apparently is more difficult to spread than Ebola, as most of the MERS
deaths have been health care workers, or others who caught it in
hospitals.

The "reservoir" for the MERS virus appears to be camels. Camels carry
the virus but are not sickened by it, and can pass the virus to
humans, who DO become sickened by it.

Saudi officials have for several months been on a massive education
campaign, particularly targeting thousands of health care workers.
Saudi health officials say they have beefed up their response to the
outbreak, with better infection control in hospitals and improved
surveillance systems such as a new Command and Control Centre in
Jeddah, which can coordinate swift isolation and treatment of new
cases to prevent spread. Arab News and BBC

****
**** Pakistan's umbrella Taliban group appears to be disintegrating
****

On Monday, the Baitullah Mehsud faction of the Pakistan Taliban
umbrella group Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) became the fourth faction
recently to announce its separation from TTP. The apparent
disintegration of TTP isn't necessarily good news, as it means that
the individual ethnic terrorist groups within TTP are going to
continue individually. Factional fighting within the TTP began in
November 2011, when an American drone strike killed TTP leader
Hakimullah Mehsud. In an attempt to reunite the factions, the TTP
pulled off a spectacular attack on Karachi airport
in June of this year, claiming that was revenge for
the drone strike that killed Mehsud. However, that attack backfired
since, for the first time, Pakistan's army finally launched an
operation, known as Zarb-e-Azb, on North Waziristan in Pakistan's
tribal area to "clean out" the Taliban's hideouts and weapons stores.

The new faction has declared extortion, abduction for ransom, and
bombing public places as Haram (any act that is forbidden by Allah).
"One of the reason we have given up on the larger group is that
conspirators have infiltrated it," according to a spokesman.

It was just three weeks ago that another group of factions broke off
from TTP, and called itself Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of
Freedom). The leader, Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani, had been strongly
opposed by the "peace talks," earlier this year, between TTP and
Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif. In a statement last February
leading up to the split, a spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"Some of our leaders have become prey to compromises
and have agreed to conduct dialogue only to get the tribal areas
liberated. It is very clear that Shariah can never be attained
through talks. Even if the Government makes a concession, it will
only be limited to the tribal areas. In the past, we used to
participate in jihad [Holy war] from the platform of
Tehrik-e-Taliban. But from now onwards, we will carry out attacks
independently. The Mujahideen associated with the TTP are our
brothers, but if they opt for a ceasefire with the Government, we
shall not be bound by their agreement, nor are we willing to
accept such a ceasefire."<END QUOTE>

Following the split, a spokesman claimed, "It was lack of leadership
quality that TTP had been involved in bloody clashes that have taken
lives of known Mujahideen. The leadership had no policy to deal with
this situation." Samaa TV (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** The center of international piracy moves from Somalia to Singapore
****

The changing nature of piracy has changed it from a multi-million
dollar industry pursued by Somali warlords off the horn of Africa to a
billion dollar industry pursued by commercial pirates in the seas of
the Singapore Strait and Strait of Malacca.

Five years ago, pirate attacks off the horn of Africa had become
fairly common. Pirates would board ships and hold the crews for
multi-million dollar ransoms. But thanks to a multinational military
effort and merchant crew training, the number of such attacks was
reduced to 13 last year from 197 in 2009.

But the sheer number of merchant ships at sea, roughly 55,000, makes a
similar approach impossible with the pirates of southern Asia. These
pirates almost never seize hostages. Instead, they board the ship,
tie up the crew, smash the communications and navigation equipment,
and then get down to work -- stealing the cargo, which is usually gas
or oil. The pirates bring their own tankers and siphon the oil or gas
to their own ship. A typical haul for a few hours work is half a
million dollars. CNBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Hajj, camels,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Hakimullah Mehsud,
Zarb-e-Azb, North Waziristan, Nawaz Sharif,
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, JuA, Assembly of Freedom, Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani,
Somalia, Singapore Strait, Strait of Malacca, piracy

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*** 17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam
• Over 500 migrants drown in Mediterranean after boat was rammed
• U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola

****
**** Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam
****


Picture from BrahMos press release

Talks for sale of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, jointly
developed by India and Russia, to Vietnam are at an "advanced stage."
Vietnam has already been deemed a "friendly country" by Russia and
India, and acquisition of the BrahMos would be a significant strategic
coup for Vietnam, to bolster its credible defense against China.
Vietnam is ill-equipped to prevent China from annexing territories
belonging to Vietnam and other countries bordering the South China
Sea, and the supersonic missiles would allow Vietnam to threaten any
naval assets that China may choose to use in the future against
Vietnamese interests.

The BrahMos, developed jointly in a strategic partnership between
Indian DRDO (Defense Research and Development Organization) and
Russian NPO Mashinostroyeniya, is a stealth cruise missile with a
range of 290 km and travels at a speed of Mach 2.8 to 3. Its
developer claims that the missile cannot be intercepted for the next
20 years.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these alliances
further support the ten-year-old prediction, based on generational
analysis of the countries involved, that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war would pit China plus Pakistan plus the Sunni
Muslim countries versus the U.S. plus India plus Russia plus Iran. In
Asia, the alliance between India, Russia and Vietnam is growing, while
in the Mideast, we see a realignment in progress that's allying the
U.S. with Iran and Russia, versus the Sunni-jihadist Islamic State /
of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). These realignments are continuing.
Diplomat and BrahMos press release

****
**** Over 500 migrants drown in Mediterranean after boat was rammed
****

About 500 migrants, 400 adults and 100 children, traveling from Egypt
to Malta drowned, after the boat carrying them collided with another
boat. The migrants' boat may have been rammed and deliberately sunk
by human traffickers, who were demanding that they give up their boat
in exchange for a smaller boat. According to survivors, the
traffickers were laughing after ramming and sinking the boat.

The number of migrants traveling from Africa to Europe has been
surging exponentially this year, and this would be the biggest
drowning incident so far. Last October there were two tragic
shipwrecks last October in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and
Syrian migrants drowned. ( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in"
)

The deaths of 400 migrants caused a scandal throughout Europe, and
Italy began spending $13 million dollars per month on a program called
"Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea) to rescue drowning migrants trying to reach
Sicily. Many people believe that the exponential surge in migrants is
an unintended consequence of the Mare Nostrum program, since a migrant
can feel confident that he'll reach Europe one way or another.

Italy has been complaining bitterly that Europe should be paying a lot
more of the $13 million monthly tab. The Europeans have agreed to a
small expansion of its Frontex border agency into a "Frontex Plus"
program, but for the most part, the Europeans are happy to sit back
and just let Italy bear the entire cost. CNN and Guardian (London)

****
**** U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola
****

Most people are aware of the close relationship that the United States
has had with the country of Liberia, resulting from the fact that it
was founded by freed American slaves in the early 1800s. Since that
time, America has provided aid and support to the country when
necessary, and Liberia provided valuable resources, particularly
rubber, in support of America's war effort in World War II.

With the Ebola virus spreading exponentially throughout Liberia,
Liberia is facing an existential crisis, and so it's not surprising
that the U.S. is going to help. Under the U.S. plan, 3,000
U.S. troops will be sent to a new command center in Liberia's capital,
Monrovia, to help with the transportation of supplies and other
personnel. U.S. forces will construct 17 health care facilities of
100 beds each to isolate and treat victims. The U.S. mission will also
set up a facility to train 500 health care workers per week.

The Ebola crisis threatens to wipe out ten years of rebuilding Liberia
following the bloody civil war that ended in 2003. Liberia's society
is split between indigenous tribes -- the people who lived there
before the freed slaves arrived -- and the freed slaves who settled
there. Although making up only about 5% of the population, the freed
slaves and their descendants, known as "Americo-Liberians," were a
dominant minority and ruled Liberia following independence, until the
civil war began in the 1960s. The society that sent freed slaves to
Liberia in the 1800s selected the ones with the strongest Protestant
Christian beliefs, and the ruling Americo-Liberian minority considered
themselves and their religion to be superior to the religions of the
indigenous tribes, whether animist or Muslim. Ironically, the freed
slaves themselves became slavemasters to the indigenous people,
continuing into the 1900s. The war ended, but tensions between the
settlers and the tribes continue. The civil war that ended in 2003
left the country destitute, and now it's facing destitution again from
Ebola.

Some people are criticizing the American action to be too little, too
late. Based on the reports that have been coming out of Liberia in
the last few months, it's quite possible that even 3,000 American
troops cannot stop the rapid spread of the disease. It seems likely
that the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all
people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick for the disease,
and either survive or not. The survivors should then be immune from
further illness from Ebola. VOA and White House and Liberian National History Project


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, India, Vietnam, BrahMos missile, China,
Egypt, Malta, Italy, Eritrea, Somalia, Syria,
Mare Nostrum, Our Sea, Frontex Plus,
Liberia, Ebola, Americo-Liberians

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*** 18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?
• John Kerry's testimony before the Senate: 1971 and Today

****
**** Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?
****


A section of the Congo River, made to look like the Ebola virus

Here's a question I received from a web site reader, commenting on
yesterday's World View article,
in
which I concluded on the subject of Ebola with, "It seems likely that
the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all
people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick with the disease,
and either survive or not":

<QUOTE>"I find it difficult to square your comments about a
generalized and all-encompassing infection rate with the news
comments about the number of people who are reported infected.
Your suggestion that "all" will get sick and survive or die is an
Apocalypse unknown in modern times. If any western nation were to
lose 25% of its population there would be a complete collapse of
the nation (in my opinion). Now you suggest that the death rate
would approach 50%. Should the infection spread beyond the
sub-sahara region into North Africa with the Hajj approaching the
infection would go worldwide. This would be a game changer and
the perfect excuse for global war (in all of its forms) as
countries would be "forced" to close their borders. Smoot-Hawley
did not tickle the economies of the world as this would.

As the press is reporting the illness is striking people by the
thousands and while it could strike thousands more this does not
approach the millions to be infected by your reasoning. I am not
sure how you develop the thought of everyone contracting the
disease. Please write about how your develop your
reasoning."<END QUOTE>

In the past few weeks and months, I've listened and read probably
close to 1000 news reports and analyses on what's happening in
Liberia, and I take note of what's said, and what's not said.

What's said over and over is:

• "This is out of control."
• "This is expanding exponentially."
• "Ebola will forever be endemic in Liberia."
• "There are no hospital beds."
• "This will have to run its course."
• "I've said too much - I don't want to scare people."

What's not said is: "This will be brought under control soon."

So I reached the conclusion that I reached.

Say there are currently 1000 cases in Liberia. Ebola is expanding
exponentially, with the number of cases in Liberia doubling every two
weeks or so. Since 2**10=1024, then the number of cases after ten
iterations (20 weeks) will be 1024*1000 which is over a million.

You suggest that I'm saying that it will be a worldwide epidemic,
spread by the Hajj. I didn't say anything like that, and the
Saudis are taking every possible precaution, and have the
expertise and infrastructure to do so.

Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care
infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education,
anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors
that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast
exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of
enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of
Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that new Ebola patients
are literally receiving no care whatsoever.

Things may change, but right now I don't see any of these factors in
play in the U.S. or Europe or any developed nation. However, those
factors may still apply in many underdeveloped places in the world,
particularly megacities and slums, and so a global Ebola epidemic in
specific isolated places may yet occur. Also, a war in any
location can destroy the health care infrastructure, and allow
a pandemic to spread.

Another web site reader referred me to the following very interesting
article on the history of pandemics: How plagues really work

****
**** John Kerry's testimony before the Senate: 1971 and Today
****

Here's what John Kerry said, testifying before the Senate Armed
Services Committee in 1971:

<QUOTE>"I would like to talk, representing all those
veterans, and say that several months ago in Detroit, we had an
investigation at which over 150 honorably discharged and many very
highly decorated veterans testified to war crimes committed in
Southeast Asia, not isolated incidents but crimes committed on a
day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels
of command....

They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off
ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human
genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies,
randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent
of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food
stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam in
addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very
particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of
this country."<END QUOTE>

Now, here's what he said on Wednesday, testifying before the same
committee:

<QUOTE>"Because ISIL is killing and raping and mutilating
women. And they believe women shouldn't have an education. They
sell off girls to be sex slaves to jihadists. There is no
negotiation with ISIL. There is nothing to negotiate. And they’re
not offering anyone healthcare of any kind. They're not offering
education of any kind.

For a whole philosophy or idea or cult, or whatever you want to
call it, that frankly comes out of the stone age. They’re
cold-blooded killers marauding across the Middle East making a
mockery of a peaceful religion."<END QUOTE>

When you compare the two statements, the US Army comes out a lot worse
than ISIL in John Kerry's view.

John Kerry has expressed nothing but contempt for the US Army his
entire life. He reaffirmed his 1971 testimony when he appeared on the
Imus show in 2006, and in that time frame he said that US soldiers are
stupid.

For John Kerry to be U.S. Secretary of State is a travesty and an
insult to all Americans. The only thing that qualifies him for this
or any government job is that his boss shares his attitudes. Richmond.edu

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Liberia, John Kerry

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam
• Over 500 migrants drown in Mediterranean after boat was rammed
• U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola

****
**** Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam
****


Picture from BrahMos press release

Talks for sale of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, jointly
developed by India and Russia, to Vietnam are at an "advanced stage."
Vietnam has already been deemed a "friendly country" by Russia and
India, and acquisition of the BrahMos would be a significant strategic
coup for Vietnam, to bolster its credible defense against China.
Vietnam is ill-equipped to prevent China from annexing territories
belonging to Vietnam and other countries bordering the South China
Sea, and the supersonic missiles would allow Vietnam to threaten any
naval assets that China may choose to use in the future against
Vietnamese interests.

The BrahMos, developed jointly in a strategic partnership between
Indian DRDO (Defense Research and Development Organization) and
Russian NPO Mashinostroyeniya, is a stealth cruise missile with a
range of 290 km and travels at a speed of Mach 2.8 to 3. Its
developer claims that the missile cannot be intercepted for the next
20 years.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these alliances
further support the ten-year-old prediction, based on generational
analysis of the countries involved, that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war would pit China plus Pakistan plus the Sunni
Muslim countries versus the U.S. plus India plus Russia plus Iran. In
Asia, the alliance between India, Russia and Vietnam is growing, while
in the Mideast, we see a realignment in progress that's allying the
U.S. with Iran and Russia, versus the Sunni-jihadist Islamic State /
of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). These realignments are continuing.
Diplomat and BrahMos press release

****
**** Over 500 migrants drown in Mediterranean after boat was rammed
****

About 500 migrants, 400 adults and 100 children, traveling from Egypt
to Malta drowned, after the boat carrying them collided with another
boat. The migrants' boat may have been rammed and deliberately sunk
by human traffickers, who were demanding that they give up their boat
in exchange for a smaller boat. According to survivors, the
traffickers were laughing after ramming and sinking the boat.

The number of migrants traveling from Africa to Europe has been
surging exponentially this year, and this would be the biggest
drowning incident so far. Last October there were two tragic
shipwrecks last October in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and
Syrian migrants drowned. ( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in"
)

The deaths of 400 migrants caused a scandal throughout Europe, and
Italy began spending $13 million dollars per month on a program called
"Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea) to rescue drowning migrants trying to reach
Sicily. Many people believe that the exponential surge in migrants is
an unintended consequence of the Mare Nostrum program, since a migrant
can feel confident that he'll reach Europe one way or another.

Italy has been complaining bitterly that Europe should be paying a lot
more of the $13 million monthly tab. The Europeans have agreed to a
small expansion of its Frontex border agency into a "Frontex Plus"
program, but for the most part, the Europeans are happy to sit back
and just let Italy bear the entire cost. CNN and Guardian (London)

****
**** U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola
****

Most people are aware of the close relationship that the United States
has had with the country of Liberia, resulting from the fact that it
was founded by freed American slaves in the early 1800s. Since that
time, America has provided aid and support to the country when
necessary, and Liberia provided valuable resources, particularly
rubber, in support of America's war effort in World War II.

With the Ebola virus spreading exponentially throughout Liberia,
Liberia is facing an existential crisis, and so it's not surprising
that the U.S. is going to help. Under the U.S. plan, 3,000
U.S. troops will be sent to a new command center in Liberia's capital,
Monrovia, to help with the transportation of supplies and other
personnel. U.S. forces will construct 17 health care facilities of
100 beds each to isolate and treat victims. The U.S. mission will also
set up a facility to train 500 health care workers per week.

The Ebola crisis threatens to wipe out ten years of rebuilding Liberia
following the bloody civil war that ended in 2003. Liberia's society
is split between indigenous tribes -- the people who lived there
before the freed slaves arrived -- and the freed slaves who settled
there. Although making up only about 5% of the population, the freed
slaves and their descendants, known as "Americo-Liberians," were a
dominant minority and ruled Liberia following independence, until the
civil war began in the 1960s. The society that sent freed slaves to
Liberia in the 1800s selected the ones with the strongest Protestant
Christian beliefs, and the ruling Americo-Liberian minority considered
themselves and their religion to be superior to the religions of the
indigenous tribes, whether animist or Muslim. Ironically, the freed
slaves themselves became slavemasters to the indigenous people,
continuing into the 1900s. The war ended, but tensions between the
settlers and the tribes continue. The civil war that ended in 2003
left the country destitute, and now it's facing destitution again from
Ebola.

Some people are criticizing the American action to be too little, too
late. Based on the reports that have been coming out of Liberia in
the last few months, it's quite possible that even 3,000 American
troops cannot stop the rapid spread of the disease. It seems likely
that the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all
people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick for the disease,
and either survive or not. The survivors should then be immune from
further illness from Ebola. VOA and White House and Liberian National History Project


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, India, Vietnam, BrahMos missile, China,
Egypt, Malta, Italy, Eritrea, Somalia, Syria,
Mare Nostrum, Our Sea, Frontex Plus,
Liberia, Ebola, Americo-Liberians

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And yet, Russia also gave the plans for Brahmos to China and have outsourced / offshored a number of weapons systems to China. Almost all of China's weapons systems are in some way knock offs or versions of Russian ones. Read about the Scissors Strategy and the fake Sino-Russian split (numerous sources including multiple authors of Russian defector pedigree as well as J.R. Nyquist).

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?
• John Kerry's testimony before the Senate: 1971 and Today

****
**** Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?
****


A section of the Congo River, made to look like the Ebola virus

Here's a question I received from a web site reader, commenting on
yesterday's World View article,
in
which I concluded on the subject of Ebola with, "It seems likely that
the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all
people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick with the disease,
and either survive or not":

<QUOTE>"I find it difficult to square your comments about a
generalized and all-encompassing infection rate with the news
comments about the number of people who are reported infected.
Your suggestion that "all" will get sick and survive or die is an
Apocalypse unknown in modern times. If any western nation were to
lose 25% of its population there would be a complete collapse of
the nation (in my opinion). Now you suggest that the death rate
would approach 50%. Should the infection spread beyond the
sub-sahara region into North Africa with the Hajj approaching the
infection would go worldwide. This would be a game changer and
the perfect excuse for global war (in all of its forms) as
countries would be "forced" to close their borders. Smoot-Hawley
did not tickle the economies of the world as this would.

As the press is reporting the illness is striking people by the
thousands and while it could strike thousands more this does not
approach the millions to be infected by your reasoning. I am not
sure how you develop the thought of everyone contracting the
disease. Please write about how your develop your
reasoning."<END QUOTE>

In the past few weeks and months, I've listened and read probably
close to 1000 news reports and analyses on what's happening in
Liberia, and I take note of what's said, and what's not said.

What's said over and over is:

• "This is out of control."
• "This is expanding exponentially."
• "Ebola will forever be endemic in Liberia."
• "There are no hospital beds."
• "This will have to run its course."
• "I've said too much - I don't want to scare people."

What's not said is: "This will be brought under control soon."

So I reached the conclusion that I reached.

Say there are currently 1000 cases in Liberia. Ebola is expanding
exponentially, with the number of cases in Liberia doubling every two
weeks or so. Since 2**10=1024, then the number of cases after ten
iterations (20 weeks) will be 1024*1000 which is over a million.

You suggest that I'm saying that it will be a worldwide epidemic,
spread by the Hajj. I didn't say anything like that, and the
Saudis are taking every possible precaution, and have the
expertise and infrastructure to do so.

Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care
infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education,
anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors
that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast
exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of
enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of
Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that new Ebola patients
are literally receiving no care whatsoever.

Things may change, but right now I don't see any of these factors in
play in the U.S. or Europe or any developed nation. However, those
factors may still apply in many underdeveloped places in the world,
particularly megacities and slums, and so a global Ebola epidemic in
specific isolated places may yet occur. Also, a war in any
location can destroy the health care infrastructure, and allow
a pandemic to spread.

Another web site reader referred me to the following very interesting
article on the history of pandemics: How plagues really work

****
**** John Kerry's testimony before the Senate: 1971 and Today
****

Here's what John Kerry said, testifying before the Senate Armed
Services Committee in 1971:

<QUOTE>"I would like to talk, representing all those
veterans, and say that several months ago in Detroit, we had an
investigation at which over 150 honorably discharged and many very
highly decorated veterans testified to war crimes committed in
Southeast Asia, not isolated incidents but crimes committed on a
day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels
of command....

They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off
ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human
genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies,
randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent
of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food
stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam in
addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very
particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of
this country."<END QUOTE>

Now, here's what he said on Wednesday, testifying before the same
committee:

<QUOTE>"Because ISIL is killing and raping and mutilating
women. And they believe women shouldn't have an education. They
sell off girls to be sex slaves to jihadists. There is no
negotiation with ISIL. There is nothing to negotiate. And they’re
not offering anyone healthcare of any kind. They're not offering
education of any kind.

For a whole philosophy or idea or cult, or whatever you want to
call it, that frankly comes out of the stone age. They’re
cold-blooded killers marauding across the Middle East making a
mockery of a peaceful religion."<END QUOTE>

When you compare the two statements, the US Army comes out a lot worse
than ISIL in John Kerry's view.

John Kerry has expressed nothing but contempt for the US Army his
entire life. He reaffirmed his 1971 testimony when he appeared on the
Imus show in 2006, and in that time frame he said that US soldiers are
stupid.

For John Kerry to be U.S. Secretary of State is a travesty and an
insult to all Americans. The only thing that qualifies him for this
or any government job is that his boss shares his attitudes. Richmond.edu

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Liberia, John Kerry

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This is right up there with "Obama was born in Kenya." Stuff of tin foil. Look, while I would agree that the radical young Kerry was a borderline Communist and traitor, the Kerry of today is seemingly responsible and moderate politically. You can politic all you want but your screed is the stuff of 3T schismatic, self destructive debate.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> And yet, Russia also gave the plans for Brahmos to China and have
> outsourced / offshored a number of weapons systems to
> China. Almost all of China's weapons systems are in some way knock
> offs or versions of Russian ones. Read about the Scissors Strategy
> and the fake Sino-Russian split (numerous sources including
> multiple authors of Russian defector pedigree as well as
> J.R. Nyquist).

Whether China has the BrahMos specs is completely irrelevant to this
article. China can build its own supersonic missiles anyway.

The point of this article is that Russia and India are selling a
supersonic missile to Vietnam, an increasingly bitter enemy of China,
as China's military moves to annex its territory.

Chinese Scientists Discover Winning Rock-Paper-Scissors Strategy
http://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/201...ssors-strategy

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> This is right up there with "Obama was born in Kenya." Stuff of
> tin foil. Look, while I would agree that the radical young Kerry
> was a borderline Communist and traitor, the Kerry of today is
> seemingly responsible and moderate politically. You can politic
> all you want but your screed is the stuff of 3T schismatic, self
> destructive debate.

Obama and Kerry have had one major policy debacle after another, and
have repeatedly humiliated themselves and America. No matter how
disastrous Obama's policies are, people in your camp say that anyone
who points that out is neanderthal or racist or, in this case,
tinfoil. You never address the facts, and then you go on to excuse
the next disaster. As I've said before, if Obama picked up a gun and
killed someone, people in your camp would blame it on the Republicans.
During his Senate testimony yesterday, Kerry referenced his 1971
appearance in glowing terms, so this isn't old news. This guy's an
incompetent jackass and an insult to all Americans, especially people
who've served in the armed forces, and their families.

*** 19-Sep-14 World View -- BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand's PM suggests that only ugly people are safe in bikinis
• BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion
• Dozens of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine from Chechnya
• China's and India's leaders smile despite military confrontation

****
**** Thailand's PM suggests that only ugly people are safe in bikinis
****


Murdered British tourists David Miller, 24, and Hannah Witheridge, 23

Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who heads the military junta that overthrew
Thailand's elected government in a coup in May, is apologizing for
suggesting that only ugly people should wear bikinis.

The bodies of two British tourists, a young, good-looking male and
female, were found bludgeoned on one of Thailand's scenic beaches.
Prayuth said, "Can they be safe in bikinis, unless they are not
beautiful?"

In response to the subsequent uproar, Prayuth said, I apologize that I
have spoken too harshly ... I didn’t mean to criticize or look down on
anyone. Today I can guarantee that Thailand is still safe ... I wanted
to warn [the tourists] to be careful. I’m sorry that it hurt people."
AP

****
**** BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion
****

BBC reporters in southern Russia were attacked by Russian security
thugs after interviewing a woman whose brother, a professional Russian
soldier, had been killed in action in Ukraine. The Russian thugs
seriously wounded the cameraman and smashed his camera. The others
were locked up while their equipment was damaged and all their reports
erased. However, the reporters had already uploaded much of the
material, including the interview with the dead soldier's sister
before the Russian thugs attacked, so the BBC was able to air the
interview after all.

In the interview, as aired on the BBC, the woman said her brother was
a professional soldier who had been ordered into Ukraine, and was
probably killed there. In her last phone contact with her brother, he
said that he'd been ordered to go to southwest Ukraine, which
presumably means that Russia is in the midst of a military buildup to
attack Odessa and then annex southern Ukraine, as well as Moldova's
Transnistria province.

Nato and several news organizations have shown the presence of large
numbers of Russian troops in Ukraine. Russia simply claims that
everyone else is lying, uses violence by thugs to intimidate reporters
who collect such evidence, and uses an army of paid trolls
to attack anyone on the internet who
reports Russian activities.

Russia invaded Crimea, Ukraine's southern peninsula, earlier this
year, and annexed it. They lied about the presence of Russian troops
until the invasion and the annexation were over, and then acknowledged
that they had been lying, even awarding medals to the Russian soldiers
who conducted the invasion.

On Thursday, Ukraine's government reported that Russia's troops in
Crimea have been massing on the Crimean border. If this story is
true, and if the Russian woman's story is true that her dead brother
had been ordered to southwest Ukraine, it would indicate that a new
Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent, with plans to annex southern
Ukraine. BBC and AFP and BBC and Pravda (Moscow)

****
**** Dozens of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine from Chechnya
****

Dozens of Russian soldiers from Chechnya are fighting the Ukrainian
army in Ukraine. These Chechens have produced a large number of
videos that appear on the internet showing the fighting and dying in
Ukraine. Other videos show Russian officers threatening Chechens who
resist being sent to Ukraine. The influx of Chechens includes entire
military units normally based in Chechnya, including two Motorized
Rifle Brigades. The brigades are manned exclusively by contract
soldiers, 10–20 percent of which are Chechens. Jamestown and Bloomberg

****
**** China's and India's leaders smile despite military confrontation
****

China's president Xi Jinping and India's prime minister Narendra Modi
acted like friendly old pals in their meeting in New Delhi, and
promised that the two countries would help each other with new
economic initiatives. China pledged to invest $20 billion in a five
year plan to reduce the trade imbalance that currently favors China by
a large amount.

Xi promised to combine the "world's factory" with the "world's back
office" in a Wednesday editorial that he wrote for The Hindu:

<BEGIN QUOTE>"As emerging markets, each with its own strengths, we
need to become closer development partners who draw upon each
other’s strengths and work together for common development. With
rich experience in infrastructure building and manufacturing,
China is ready to contribute to India’s development in these
areas. India is advanced in IT and pharmaceutical industries, and
Indian companies are welcome to seek business opportunities in the
Chinese market. The combination of the “world’s factory” and the
“world’s back office” will produce the most competitive production
base and the most attractive consumer market."<END QUOTE>

Xi also appreciatively quoted Modi's characterization that China and
India are "two bodies, one spirit."

However, Modi also said that the boundary issues between China and
India need to be resolved quickly:

<QUOTE>"We need to resolve our boundary issue soon. A
clarification on the LAC (Line of Actual Control) is very
important. It has been pending for years, it is time to start it
again.<END QUOTE>

Indeed, despite all the friendly talk between the two leaders, Chinese
and Indian forces were confronting each other in the bitterly
contested Kashmir/Jammu region. 600 soldiers crossed China's border
into India in the early hours of Thursday morning, supported by
helicopters. They were building a road that would be five km deep
into Indian territory. There was no live fire between the two sides.
IBNLive (India) and Times of India and The Hindu


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Prayuth Chan-ocha, bikinis,
David Miller, Hannah Witheridge,
BBC, Russia, Ukraine, Odessa, Chechnya,
China, India, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi

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