*** 20-Sep-14 World View -- Yemen violence may be proxy between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sierra Leone starts 3-day lockdown to battle Ebola
• Yemen violence may be proxy between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood
• China's Alibaba IPO causes lightheaded investors to pop champagne corks

****
**** Sierra Leone starts 3-day lockdown to battle Ebola
****


Empty street in Freetown during lockdown on Friday (Reuters)

Streets in Freetown, the capital city of Sierra Leone, were deserted
on Friday, the first day of a 3-day lockdown of the entire country.
People were told in advance to stock up on food, so that they wouldn't
have to leave their homes for 3 days. Muslims were told to pray on
Friday, and Christians were told to pray on Sunday.

The plans are that nearly 30,000 health workers, volunteers and
teachers aim to visit every household in the country to educate people
about the disease and isolate the sick. There are 6 million people in
the country, so that's 200 people per volunteer. Each volunteer is
given a kit containing soap, stickers and flyers before leaving.

Sierra Leone is one of the poorest countries in the world, and the
economy gets worse every day because of the Ebola crisis. Many
families could not stock up on three days of food, and some people
will starve. Investors are concerned that the lockdown will
affect Sierra Leone's iron ore production.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) is condemning
the plan, saying that it will no effect on the spread of Ebola.

Earlier this week, one 8-person team educating people on Ebola risks
in a remote part of southeastern Guinea were killed and their bodies
dumped in a village latrine. CNN and Reuters

****
**** Yemen violence may be proxy between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood
****

Violence agreed on Friday in Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, between
Houthi militias from north of Sanaa versus Yemen's army backed by
pro-government ethnic groups. Houthis have been camped out in Sanaa
since mid-August, paralyzing government offices and businesses. The
Houthis have been demanding a restoration of fuel subsidies that were
cut in July, increasing gasoline prices by 60% or more. Violence has
been increasing, and by Friday the airport was shut down, phone lines
and internet services were down, and residents were forced to stay
indoors.

Although the Yemen conflict is largely fought between ethnic
groups, each side has powerful political supporters.

The Houthis are in the Zaidi branch of the Shia Muslim religion, and
are in control of large swathes of territory in northern Yemen, along
the border with Saudi Arabia. It's widely believed that Iran has been
training and supplying arms to the Houthis, with a view to
destabilizing both Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The most important militias opposed to the Houthis are those who are
in the Sunni political group al-Islah, which is Yemen's branch of the
Muslim Brotherhood. Much of the fighting in and around Sanaa involves
al-Islah-allied militias, rather than Yemen's military.

However, more intriguing are the reports that the Houthis are being
supported by the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted
by his vice president, and now the current president, Abdrabuh Mansur
Hadi. Saleh is also a member of the Zaidi sect, while Hadi is a Sunni
Muslim. Saleh was in power from 1992 until his ouster in 2012, and he
and Hadi had a good relationship. But Saleh is extremely bitter about
being overthrown and it's suspected that he wants to destabilize
Hadi's government, and have him replaced by his son, Ahmed Ali Saleh.
VOA and Middle East Eye and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** China's Alibaba IPO causes lightheaded investors to pop champagne corks
****

Here's how one news story began:

<QUOTE>"Alibaba debuted as a publicly traded company Friday
and swiftly climbed more than 40 percent in a mammoth IPO that
offered eager investors seemingly unlimited potential for growth
and a way to tap into the burgeoning Chinese middle class.

The sharp demand for shares sent the market value of the
e-commerce giant soaring well beyond that of Amazon, eBay and even
Facebook. The initial public offering was on track to be the
world's largest, with the possibility of raising as much as $25
billion.

Jubilant CEO Jack Ma stood on the floor of the New York Stock
Exchange as eight Alibaba customers, including an American cherry
farmer and a Chinese Olympian, rang the opening
bell."<END QUOTE>

We've now completely returned to the euphoric hysteria that
preceded the 2007-2008 financial crisis. At that time, investors
were going nuts over one IPO after another, one leveraged buyout
after another. Each one was a sure thing, just like Alibaba,
and I'm told that there are a lot more IPOs coming in the next
few months.

There aren't any "real people" investing in Alibaba. The investors
are almost all hedge funds and financial institutions. A hedge fund
can borrow $10 million and use it to buy Alibaba stock, since it's
"sure" to go up. That's how a combination debt bubble and stock
market bubble are created. Different hedge funds borrow money and use
it to buy stocks, pushing up the prices of the stocks, and in essence
creating money backed by a chain of debt. The problem arises when one
hedge fund loses money and can't repay its debts, causing a chain
reaction that results in a financial crisis.

Stock market valuations are going farther and farther into the ozone
bubble layers. The last time I mentioned the S&P 500 Price/Earnings
ratio, just a couple of weeks ago, it was at 18.97, which is already
astronomically high by historical standards. But now, according to
Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (September 19) has shot up to 19.36.

Do I have to remind you, Dear Reader, that it wasn't very long
ago, in 1982, when the S&P 500 P/E ratio was below 6. It
falls to that level every 30 years or so, and it's overdue to do
so again. This would push the Dow Jones Industrial Average
down to the 3000 level.

By the way, those hedge funds didn't really invest in the Alibaba
company on Friday. Alibaba is described as "China's e-commerce
powerhouse," bigger than eBay and Facebook combined. But the Chinese
do not permit foreigners to own Chinese internet stocks. So they set
up some kind of holding company in the Cayman Islands, with some kind
of relationship to Alibaba. Investors who bought stock on Friday
actually bought shares in that holding company. Even large investors
have absolutely no say in how Alibaba is run, and China's regulators
can pull the plug at any time. But apparently today's investors are
so imbued with sheer stupidity that they bought the stock anyway, and
pushed its opening price of $60 per share all the way up to $93 per
share, within just a few hours. AP and Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Sierra Leone, Freetown,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
Yemen, Sanaa, Houthi, Zaidi, Saudi Arabia, Iran,
al-Islah, Muslim Brotherhood, Ali Abdullah Saleh,
Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi, Ahmed Ali Saleh,
Alibaba, China, Cayman Islands

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*** 21-Sep-14 World View -- Turkey admits 66,000 refugee Kurds from Syria as Mideast realignment continues

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey admits 66,000 refugee Kurds from Syria as Mideast realignment continues
• India launches 'Project Mausam' to counter China's 'Maritime Silk Road'
• Russia sends massive new convoy across border into Ukraine

****
**** Turkey admits 66,000 refugee Kurds from Syria as Mideast realignment continues
****


Long queues of Kurdish refugees wait to cross border into Turkey on Saturday (Reuters)

In a new sign of the continuing realignment of the entire Mideast
following the Gaza war and the
rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), Turkey opened the border on Saturday to
66,000 Kurdish refugees fleeing from ISIS. Thousands more are
expected to enter Turkey on Sunday.

On the same day, a military operation by Turkey recovered and freed 49
hostages from Turkey's diplomatic corp. The hostages had been
captured by ISIS when the latter overran the city of Mosul in June.

Turkey has announced that it will not join the US-led "coalition" to
be fighting ISIS, and gave as one of the reasons that it didn't want
to risk the lives of its hostages. Now that the hostages have been
freed, it's still not expected that Turkey will join the "coalition,"
since Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a bitter enemy of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Turkey will not even permit
American warplanes fighting ISIS to take off from its Incirlik air
base, although Turkey will allow humanitarian and logistical
operations from there.

Opening the border to 66,000 Kurdish refugees reflects the
realignments that are going on in the Mideast. Until recently, Turks
and Kurds fought a civil war that killed 40,000 people. The fact that
Turkey is now accepting tens of thousands of Kurdish refugees is a
sign of how allegiances are shifting in this region. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and Zaman (Ankara) and BBC

****
**** India launches 'Project Mausam' to counter China's 'Maritime Silk Road'
****

When China's president Xi Jinping took office last year, he gave a
number of speeches about "China's Dream," in which he called for China
to shed its past as a secondary player, and become the world's top
military and economic power. He visited Chinese military bases and
told the troops to be ready for war at any time. He vowed that China
will take every step necessary to gain control of the East China Sea
and South China Sea regions, including areas that have been owned by
other countries for centuries.

The "Silk Road" was a collection of trade routes that connected Europe
and China in the Middle Ages, allowing China's silk to be traded for
European goods. As part of that plan to implement "China's Dream," Xi
proposed a new "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR) across Southeast Asia,
shortly after he took office. The Chinese describe it in economic
terms, as an initiative to further deepen China's reciprocal
cooperation with neighboring countries, and promote their common
development and prosperity, but it's also a military initiative to
gain bases and influence from China, across the Indian Ocean, all the
way to Africa.

Not to be outdone, India is proposing a competitive vision to the MSR,
called "Project Mausam," described as "a transnational program is
aimed at restoring India's ancient maritime routes and cultural links
with republics in the region." I admit I'm having a bit of
difficulty understanding this, so I'll just quote someone else's
narrative:

<QUOTE>"The project is considered [Indian Prime Minister
Narendra] Modi's government’s most significant foreign policy
initiative designed to counter China. It is inspired by India’s
historical role as the focal point for trade in the Indian
Ocean. In pre-modern times, sailors used seasonal monsoons
(mausam, means weather or season in many South Asian languages) to
swiftly journey across the Indian Ocean. This trip usually
involved starting from one of the edges of the ocean, around
today’s Indonesia or east Africa, sailing to India, stopping, and
allowing another crew to wait for another monsoon to sail to the
other edge of the Indian Ocean, as different monsoon winds blew in
different directions at different times of the year. Crews would
frequently winter for months in India or at one of the edges of
the ocean waiting for another season of monsoons. This allowed for
significant cultural exchanges as diverse people from different
places would often spend months at a time living in foreign
countries (Islam is said to have entered Indonesia in this
manner).

Project Mausam would allow India to reestablish its ties with its
ancient trade partners and re-establish an “Indian Ocean world”
along the littoral of the Indian Ocean. This world would stretch
from east Africa, along the Arabian Peninsula, past southern Iran
to the major countries of South Asia and thence to Sri Lanka and
Southeast Asia."<END QUOTE>

One India and The Diplomat

****
**** Russia sends massive new convoy across border into Ukraine
****

Russia has once again sent a massive convoy of hundreds of large,
covered trucks across the border into Ukraine's sovereign territory,
without permission and without any inspection. This time, the
Russians didn't even announce the convoy in advance, but simply sent
the trucks through the border. As in the previous convoys, there's no
way to tell whether the trucks contain "humanitarian aid," as the
Russians claim, or whether they contain weapons to support the Russian
soldiers stationed in Ukraine. Deutsche-Welle and Ria Novosti


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Kurds, Syria,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bashar al-Assad,
India, China, China's Dream, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi,
Silk Road, Maritime Silk Road, Project Mausam,
Russia, Ukraine

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*** 22-Sep-14 World View -- Israeli-Hamas peace talks to resume in Cairo on Tuesday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels occupy Sanaa, then sign peace agreement
• Israeli-Hamas peace talks to resume in Cairo on Tuesday
• New climate change circus in progress

****
**** Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels occupy Sanaa, then sign peace agreement
****


Houthi fighters in back of pickup truck on Sunday in Sanaa (AFP)

Yemen's Houthi (Ansarullah) anti-government militias took control
of many government buildings in Sanaa, Yemen's capital city,
on Sunday, and then agreed to a United Nations sponsored
peace agreement to end the fighting. However, some reports
indicate that the fighting is continuing as before.

The Houthi militias are believed to be receiving weapons and
training from Iran. Yemen is also the base of the Sunni
jihadist al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and southern
Yemen is attempting to secede from Yemen.

The concern is that sectarian (Shia versus Sunni) violence will
accelerate in Yemen, affecting the entire region. Gulf News and The National (UAE)

****
**** Israeli-Hamas peace talks to resume in Cairo on Tuesday
****

It's been a month since the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas ended
with a ceasefire agreement, and part of the agreement was that peace
talks would start in a month on the core issues. So indirect talks
between Israel and Hamas are going to begin in Cairo on Tuesday. The
talks are called "indirect" because Israel and Hamas don't actually
talk to each other. They sit in separate rooms, and Egyptian
mediators run back and forth between the rooms carrying messages.

Israel's demands are:

• Disarm Hamas.
• Give governmental control of Gaza back to Mahmoud Abbas's
  Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah).

Hamas's demands are:

• Open all the border crossings between Gaza to and from Israel
  and Egypt, and allow people and goods to move freely in and out.
• Build a seaport and airport in Gaza.
• According to reports, release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in
  Israeli jails in return for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers who
  were killed during the war.

It seems unlikely that any of these demands will be granted. On the
other hand, it should take about six months for Hamas to reconstruct
its tunnels and restock its rockets, so we might expect a new Gaza war
in six months. Gulf News and Jerusalem Post

****
**** New climate change circus in progress
****

Every couple of years, a new farcical climate change takes place, with
pompous politicians saying that climate change is the biggest danger
threatening mankind for now and forever.

On Sunday, the "People's Climate March" took place in New York City.
Organizers claimed that it also took place in 2,000 locations
worldwide, and that 310,000 people joined the march in New York.

I've written about these circuses many times. Let's summarize the
climate change situation:

• Let's grant that the "climate scientists" are right that
  climate change is occurring, even though it's disputed. Let's even
  grant that all the Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting, and we're all
  going to drown, although that's disputed.
  
• Let's also grant that "climate scientists" are right that human
  activity is causing climate change, even though it's disputed.
  
• That's all that "climate scientists" can claim. Everything after
  that is a scam.
  
• Here's something from a CNN article:
  
  
  <QUOTE>"The solution to the nightmare of runaway climate
  change is crystal clear, and beautiful. We need to shift our
  societies and economies off dirty energy and on to 100% clean,
  sustainable energy, within a generation.<END QUOTE>
  
  You'd think CNN would be embarrassed to publish something so utterly
  moronic, but few media sites or politicians are embarrassed by
  stupidity these days.
  
• There is NO TECHNOLOGY available, other than those being developed
  anyway, that will reduce climate change.
  
• If any corporation ever came up with something, they'd patent it
  and make billions. No other motivation is needed.
  
• Politicians and ideologues are demanding funding for their
  favorite programs, and these are pretty much all scams (like
  Solyndra). Hundreds of "developing countries" want American money to
  fight climate change.
  
• In 2007, I documented a financial scam by Barclays that would use
  a "carbon credit" system that would be turned into money-making scam
  like the subprime mortgage securities scam. ( "UN Climate Change conference reaches a compromise agreement"
  ) Hedge funds are still looking for ways to make
  money from this scam.
  
• There's a historical precedent for this dispute. A century ago,
  analysts were debating whether the world would be covered with horse
  manure, especially in big cities, because of the increased volume of
  horses for transportation. They didn't know that new technology (the
  automobile) would make all those concerns moot. Today, "climate
  scientists" are refusing to even mention the Singularity and other
  future technologies, because it conflicts with their claims. In this
  sense, even climate scientists are committing fraud. ( "Climate Change conference in Copenhagen is all about getting green -- money"
  )
  
• The biggest danger facing mankind is not climate change. The
  Mideast, the Caucasus, the Indian subcontinent, and the East China sea
  are all burning, and could explode any day. It's the approaching
  global financial panic and crisis, and the approaching Clash of
  Civilizations world war that are far bigger dangers.

On Tuesday, the UN will host a climate summit in New York with 125
heads of state and government - the first such gathering since the
unsuccessful climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, that ended in
total farce. ( "Climate change conference winds down with search for villains"
The new
conference will end the same way, with all the politicians running to
cover their butts and blame other people. BBC and
CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthi, Ansarullah, Sanaa,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Gaza, Israel, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah,
climate change, horse manure, People's Climate March, Singularity

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*** 23-Sep-14 World View -- Turkey braces for expected flood of hundreds of thousands more refugees

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive Hong Kong student demonstrations challenge Beijing
• Turkey braces for expected flood of hundreds of thousands more refugees
• Yazidis, Mosul Christians hold Obama responsible for ISIS
• Horse manure and climate change

****
**** Massive Hong Kong student demonstrations challenge Beijing
****


Student demonstrations at Chinese University of Hong Kong on Monday (AP)

Thousands of college students in Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement,
joined by hundreds of faculty members, boycotted classes Monday to
protest Beijing's reneging on the 1997 agreement under which Hong Kong
as a British colony reverted to Chinese control. The deal was known
as "one country, two systems," meaning that Beijing would pursue
Communism and Socialism, while Hong Kong would retain its democracy,
its capitalist system, and its way of life. Hong Kong was promised
free elections, but Beijing is pre-determining the 2017 election by
allowing only three Beijing-approved candidates to run for office.

Separately, Beijing has also been clamping down on the use of the
Cantonese version of the Chinese language, the native dialect of 50
million Chinese people. In Guangdong province in southern China,
Beijing authorities are forbidding Cantonese in any television shows,
requiring the Mandarin (Putonghua) version favored by Beijing. Hong
Kong also speaks Cantonese, and it's feared that Beijing will impose
similar requirements there. Cantonese and Mandarin are written
using the same characters, but are spoken differently.

A recent poll of Cantonese speaker in Hong Kong found that 20% of them
would like to leave Hong Kong and emigrate to other countries. Huge
waves of emigration previously occurred after the Tiananmen Square
massacre in 1989, and again when Hong Kong sovereignty transferred
from Britain to China in 1997.

Activists in Macau, a former Portuguese colony with similar
administrative status to Hong Kong, are planning to hold their own
pro-democracy referendum, and are watching the Hong Kong
demonstrations closely.

Taiwan is also closely watching the demonstrations in Hong Kong,
especially the members of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP). Taiwan universities are scheduling lectures and other
forms of support for the pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong. Hong
Kong and Taiwan were closely linked after World War II, when
Nationalists fighting Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution used Hong Kong
as a transit point to escape to Formosa (Taiwan). AP and AFP and Deutsche-Welle and AFP

****
**** Turkey braces for expected flood of hundreds of thousands more refugees
****

Turkey has been home to over 1.3 million Syrian refugees since the
beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, with 130,000 new refugees
flooding in since Friday. The tsunami of refugees in the last few
days has been from border towns and cities where militias from the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) are going house to
house, killing people, abducting girls, and enslaving others. Turkish
officials say that they are prepared for a flood of additional
refugees in the next few days. The fear is that ISIS will send
suicide bombers across the border, along with the refugees. Sabah (Ankara) and Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Yazidis, Mosul Christians hold Obama responsible for ISIS
****

According to MEMRI, many Arab writers blame president Barack Obama for
the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). Here
is one column MEMRI quotes:

<QUOTE>"The terrified Yazidi woman on Mount Sinjar counted
her family members. The tally broke her heart. Those who did not
arrive with her never would. She fled quickly and convinced
herself that they had too. They never arrived. Her two sons and
her daughter. Left to the mercy of ISIS. And this 'merciful'
organization beheads the infidels, crucifies them, or buries them
alive. Left to the mercy of the caliph. He likes his state clean
and pure and will not tolerate toxic weeds in his garden.

"Who will the terrified Yazidi woman turn to? She won't call on
[Arab League Secretary-General] Nabil Al-'Arabi, because his
company [the Arab League] is known to be bankrupt. She won't call
on [UN Secretary-General] Ban Ki-moon, because he has nothing [to
offer her] but his own tears. She won't call on the Iraqi army,
since it has already fallen to ISIS and given it the best of its
weapons as a gift. She won't call on the Peshmerga, since their
weapons are too meager for this campaign. There is but one element
[she can turn to]. She spread her arms and said: 'Where is
America? Where is Obama?' ...

The Yazidi woman is entitled to treat Barack Obama as a
criminal. He quickly fled with his soldiers, leaving Iraq in the
hands of the spiteful lovers of anonymous corpses and
assassinations. He pretended to forget that his own country
invaded Iraq, and that one of its witless administrators ordered
to dismantle the Iraqi army. He ignored his moral
responsibility. He spared American blood, leaving us [to drown] in
lakes of blood."<END QUOTE>

Memri

****
**** Horse manure and climate change
****

Yesterday, I wrote
that there's a
historical precedent for the climate change debate, that predicts
we'll all be underwater in a few decades. That historical precedent
was the horse manure debate of over a century ago, that predicted that
we'd all be under horse manure within a few decades.

A couple of web site readers have requested further information.
Here's a summary:

• The world's first international urban planning conference was
  held in New York City in 1898. The major topic that dominated the
  conference was not housing, land use, economic development or
  infrastructure. It was horse manure.
  
• Horse manure was causing all sorts of problems -- urine, flies,
  congestion, carcasses, traffic accidents, and widespread cruelty to
  horses.
  
• A horse produces between 7 and 15 kilos of manure daily. In New
  York in 1900, the population of 100,000 horses produced nearly 1,200
  metric tons of horse manure per day, which all had to be swept up and
  disposed of. In addition, each horse produces nearly a liter of urine
  per day, which also ended up on the streets.
  
• The 1898 conference ended in three days instead of the scheduled
  ten days, because delegates could not agree on any solution. (This
  would be similar to the big climate change conference in 2010 in
  Copenhagen.)
  
• The crisis was resolved quickly with new technology: the
  automobile. By 1912 there were more cars than horses on the road in
  New York City. By 1920, the problem had all but
  disappeared.

During my lifetime, I've seen any number of hysterical environment
disaster predictions. My favorite was the prediction in 1970 by far
left-wing Ramparts Magazine that predicted that the oceans were
becoming so polluted that by 1980 they world's oceans would be covered
by a layer of algae. It didn't happen.

Like the horse manure crisis, the climate change crisis will be solved
by new technologies that today are barely foreseen. These will
include things like intelligent computers that will perform cleanup
tasks that humans can't perform and microbiology technologies that
will convert excess carbon dioxide back to harmless materials.
Thousands of research labs around the world are motivated to identify
such technologies, because any company finding one will patent it and
make billions of dollars. No further motivation is needed. From Horse Power to Horsepower and The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 and Great Moments in Failed Predictions


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, China, Guangdong, Cantonese,
Mandarin, Putonghua, Tiananmen Square massacre, Macau,
Portugal, Taiwan, Democratic Progressive Party,
Mao Zedong, Communist Revolution, Formosa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Yazidis, Mosul, Mount Sinjar

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*** 24-Sep-14 World View -- Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control
• Qatar remains reluctant partner in coalition against ISIS in Syria
• CDC warns of possibly 1.4 million Ebola infections in West Africa

****
**** Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control
****


The four Arab capitals claimed by Iran -- Sanaa, Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad (AlWeeam)

Iran-backed Shia Houthis celebrated with fireworks on Monday after
signing a UN-brokered "peace agreement" that required the government
to resign, replacing it with one that gives power to the Houthis.
It's believed that they will follow the same path as Hezbollah in
Lebanon -- using a power-sharing agreement combined with military
power with weapons and money supplied by Iran to take majority control
of Yemen's government.

Member of Iran parliament Ali Reza Zakani, who is close to Iran's
supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, bragged that Sanaa is
fourth Arab capital in Iran's grasp, joining "the three Arab capitals
who are already a subsidiary of the Iranian Islamic revolution," and
part of "the greater jihad." He predicted that 14 out of 20 counties
in Yemen would soon be under Houthi control. The other Arab capitals
referenced by Zakani are Beirut Lebanon, Baghdad Iraq, and Damascus
Syria.

Hezbollah gives Iran a presence in the Mediterranean, Iran itself has
control of the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, and
control of Yemen gives Iran a stranglehold on the entrance to the Red
Sea.

Analysts do not believe that the Houthi control of Sanaa is permanent.
Sunni ethnic groups are expected to regroup and oppose the Houthis
militarily. BBC and
Al Arabiya and AlWeeam (Trans) and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Qatar remains reluctant partner in coalition against ISIS in Syria
****

The barrage of airstrikes announced by President Barack Obama are
directed primarily against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS) in Syria, without the permission of the Syrian regime, and
with opposition by Russia. Previous airstrikes were directed at ISIS
in Iraq, with permission of Iraq's government.

American warplanes bombing ISIS in Syria were joined by Saudi Arabia,
Jordan, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). State news agencies
of these four countries mentioned their participation, though usually
only briefly and reluctantly.

Qatar was named by the US administration as the fifth participating
Arab country, but apparently Qatar did not actually participate in the
bombing. Qatar's official state news agency did not mention the
strikes at all, while Qatar-based al-Jazeera prominently mentioned the
airstrikes, and the other Arab countries' participation, but failed to
mention Qatar's role. It's also being widely noted that Turkey
is not participating, and is not even permitting its
air bases to be used.

As readers are aware, I've been writing frequently about of the
continuing realignment of the entire Mideast
following the Gaza war and the rise of ISIS.
In this realignment, Turkey is aligned with
Qatar and Hamas, versus Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinian
Authority. Turkey also has maintained cordial relations with
ISIS, because ISIS held 49 Turkish diplomats as hostages until
recently, and because ISIS is fighting Syria's Bashar al-Assad,
Turkey's bitter enemy.

Radical Salafist groups in the Mideast are also supporters of ISIS,
and Qatar is suspected of having a connection.

I have not heard any analyst say that ISIS can be defeated or even
"managed" without "boots on the ground." Events in the Mideast are
moving very quickly, and it's clear that many realignments have yet to
occur, as the Mideast heads for a full-scale regional war, as
predicted by Generational Dynamics. Daily Star (Beirut) and CNN

****
**** CDC warns of possibly 1.4 million Ebola infections in West Africa
****

The Centers for Disease Control on Tuesday warned of a worst-case
scenario that the number of people in Sierra Leone and Liberia
in West Africa infected with the Ebola virus could exceed
1.4 million by mid-January. However, the CDC also wishfully
added that the number of cases could peak below that, if
efforts to control the outbreak are ramped up.

These figures are consistent with the ones that I posted recently in
"18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?"
One thing that the CDC did
not mention is that if there are 1.4 million infections by
mid-January, then the number of infections will continue to grow
exponentially beyond that point, until almost all of the 10 million
people in these two countries have become infected. AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Yemen, Sanaa, Houthis, Ali Reza Zakani,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah,
Beirut Lebanon, Baghdad Iraq, Damascus Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Center for Disease Control, CDC, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ebola

Permanent web link to this article
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If anyone knows which of the four pictures of the Arab capitals is
which, please let me know. Thanks, JX

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

If anyone knows which of the four pictures of the Arab capitals is
which, please let me know. Thanks, JX

Sanaa is the upper left one, on the cliffs by the ocean. Lower left is Baghdad. I don't know which of the two on the right is which, but suspect Damascus is the upper right due to the mountains in the distance and Beirut is the Lower Right, but those are merely guesses.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Sanaa is the upper left one, on the cliffs by the ocean. Lower left is Baghdad. I don't know which of the two on the right is which, but suspect Damascus is the upper right due to the mountains in the distance and Beirut is the Lower Right, but those are merely guesses.

Sanaa is 200 miles inland.

Someone sent me the following:
Upper left Beirut
Upper right Sanaa
Lower left Baghdad
Lower right Damascus (Great Mosque of Damascus)

*** 25-Sep-14 World View -- Nigeria's army sees a turning point as Boko Haram fighters surrender

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria's army sees a turning point as Boko Haram fighters surrender
• Nato reports a 'significant' Russian troop pullback from Ukraine

****
**** Nigeria's army sees a turning point as Boko Haram fighters surrender
****


Schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram in April

Nigeria's military says that the the leader of Boko Haram has been
killed, and that some 270 militants have surrendered to the army and
are being questioned. It is hoped that this will be a turning point
that will lead to the safe recovery of the almost 300 schoolgirls that
were abducted in April.

When the girls were first abducted, weeks went by with no visible
actions by the government or the military to recover the girls. Some
reports claimed various government and military officials supported
Boko Haram.

However, in the last two or three months, the military has become much
more aggressive in pursuing and fighting the Boko Haram militants.
Recently, the military reported that Nigerian troops conducted
coordinated air and land operations in furtherance of efforts at
containing the terrorists in the North East part of the country. The
fighters who surrendered have promised to cooperate with security
officials by providing information on the whereabouts of the abducted
girls. Guardian News (Nigeria) and Tribune (Nigeria) and Daily Post (Nigeria)

****
**** Nato reports a 'significant' Russian troop pullback from Ukraine
****

According to Nato's Lt Col Jay Janzen on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"There has been a significant pullback of Russian
conventional forces from inside Ukraine, but many thousands are
still deployed in the vicinity of the border.

Some Russian troops remain inside Ukraine. It is difficult to
determine the number, as pro-Russian separatists control several
border crossings and troops are routinely moving back and forth
across the border. Further, Russian special forces are operating
in Ukraine, and they are difficult to detect."<END QUOTE>

It's been estimated that 20,000-40,000 Russian troops are near the
border with Ukraine, and they could be sent in for a re-invasion at
any time.

It used to be that President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry
would respond to obvious lies by Russia's president Vladimir Putin and
defense minister Sergei Lavrov by thanking them for being so helpful
and cooperative. It made me want to vomit. However, that strategy
has been abandoned. Obama was harshly critical of Russia in his
speech on Wednesday to the United Nations General Assembly:

<QUOTE>"Recently, Russia’s actions in Ukraine challenge this
post-war order. Here are the facts. After the people of Ukraine
mobilized popular protests and calls for reform, their corrupt
president fled. Against the will of the government in Kyiv,
Crimea was annexed. Russia poured arms into eastern Ukraine,
fueling violent separatists and a conflict that has killed
thousands. When a civilian airliner was shot down from areas that
these proxies controlled, they refused to allow access to the
crash for days. When Ukraine started to reassert control over its
territory, Russia gave up the pretense of merely supporting the
separatists, and moved troops across the border.

This is a vision of the world in which might makes right -- a
world in which one nation’s borders can be redrawn by another, and
civilized people are not allowed to recover the remains of their
loved ones because of the truth that might be revealed. America
stands for something different. We believe that right makes might
-- that bigger nations should not be able to bully smaller ones,
and that people should be able to choose their own future. And
these are simple truths, but they must be defended."<END QUOTE>

Russia has always claimed that any Russian soldiers in Ukraine were
purely "voluntary." This has always been a laughable claim, as if
thousands of Russian citizens would leave their wives and families,
travel to Ukraine at their own expense, and risk getting killed. It's
also contradicted by reports that Russian soldiers were ordered into
Ukraine.

However, I may have found a way that the Russian claim might contain a
grain of truth. Here's a paragraph from an article
from earlier this month:

About 190,000 members of the 760,000-strong Russian army are
"volunteers," serving upon their own volition. They earn 18,000
rubles ($500) per month, a huge sum by Russian standards. They can be
ordered into combat in Ukraine or anywhere else at any time, and there
isn't even a contractual requirement that relatives be notified if
volunteers are killed in the line of duty.

In other words, Russia's army has 570,000 conscripts and 190,000
volunteers, for a total of 760,000 soldiers. So perhaps the Russian
soldiers that were ordered into Ukraine were from the volunteer force.

The United States has an all-volunteer army, so according to the
Russian reasoning, there are no American soldiers in Afghanistan, Iraq
or Syria. Why? Because they're all "volunteers."

By the way, I don't know if my readers can wrap their head around this
concept, but I thought Obama's speech was pretty good. He sounded an
awful lot like President George W Bush. (See "12-Sep-14 World View -- President George W. Obama pledges to 'degrade, destroy' ISIS"
). The speech would have
been better if he'd mentioned the threat from China. BBC and White House and Moscow Times (9/1)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Nato, Jay Jansen, Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Sergei Lavrov

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

By the way, I don't know if my readers can wrap their head around this
concept, but I thought Obama's speech was pretty good. He sounded an
awful lot like President George W Bush. (See "12-Sep-14 World View -- President George W. Obama pledges to 'degrade, destroy' ISIS"
). The speech would have
been better if he'd mentioned the threat from China. BBC and White House and Moscow Times (9/1)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Nato, Jay Jansen, Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Sergei Lavrov

Permanent web link to this article
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The President knows people have short attention spans and cannot grasp the notion of the SCO. Therefore, he is not yet making mention of China in the same speeches in which he discusses Russia.

*** 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
• Russia's desperate relationship with China

****
**** Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
****


Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu (Ria Novosti)

On Thursday, Russia's military completed a week of drills and
exercises in the Far East, involving 100,000 servicemen, 1,500 tanks,
120 aircraft, 5,000 pieces of weaponry, and up to 70 ships, involving
almost the entire Russian Pacific fleet.

Nominally, the purpose of Vostok 2014 is to prepare for war with the
United States. And indeed, the Russia media has been doing everything
possible to stir nationalistic anti-US hysteria, especially since the
Ukraine war started:

• There are daily stories about "bloody Ukrainian fascists,"
  funded and controlled by American masters.
  
• A large anti-war rally in Moscow last Sunday, involving 5,000
  protesters, was described as a handful of misguided "trators" managed
  by America.
  
• The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) was created by
  America, and is being funded by America.
  
• Ukrainian troops "raiding our western regions" are linked to ISIS,
  guided by America.
  
• Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was either a plot to kill president
  Vladimir Putin or a plot with the airliner previously packed with
  corpses.
  
• The internet is a CIA "special project" designed to spread
  misinformation about Russia.

In the midst of all this anti-US hysteria, it's not surprising that
Vostok 2014 is being described as preparations for war with America.
And yet, the assets deployed during this exercise were more consistent
with preparing for a defense of the Far East, a region that America
would be unlikely to invade if it wanted to invade Russia at all. The
only state actor that against which such a defense is needed is China.
Ria Novosti and BBC and Jamestown

****
**** Russia's desperate relationship with China
****

Russia has become increasingly isolated in world, thanks to its
support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad and because of its invasion of
Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. The West has imposed sanctions on
Russia which, whatever their economic importance, have had huge
symbolic importance. However, Russia has been able to count on China,
which is also invading and annexing other countries' territories, for
support in the United Nations Security Council, and for trade deals
for energy and agricultural products.

However, beneath the smiles and handshakes, China and Russia have a
very troubled relationship. The two countries almost went to war in
the 1960s, but the biggest of their current problems is the danger of
a Chinese "invasion" of Russia's Far East.

Russia's population in the Far East has fallen dramatically in the
last 20 years, and could fall significantly lower. The population of
Russia east of Lake Baikal dropped from 8 million to 6 million from
1998-2002, and has continued falling since then. But the three
Chinese provinces just across the river are packed with people, with a
total population of 110 million people. Furthermore, the Russian
region has substantial deposits of gold, oil, natural gas, coal,
timber, silver, platinum, lead and zinc, as well as rich fishing
grounds and vast expanses of unpopulated land.

With its desperate political dependency on China, Russia has said
little recently about the Chinese threat to the Far East. But they
did in the past. In 2008, Russia's then-President Dmitry Medvedev
warned that, " don’t step up the level of activity of our work [in the
Russian Far East], then in the final analysis we can lose everything."

The Chinese agree. According to one Chinese analyst, "It’s a law of
physics; a vacuum has to be filled. If there are no Russian people
here, there will be Chinese people."

As a result, while paying lip service to closer relations with China,
Russia is also developing close relations with China's enemies,
especially India and Vietnam. ( "17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam"
)

Thus, although the Vostok 2014 military drills in the Far East are
signal to the West that it's willing to take military action when
necessary, Russia fears the long-term risks of war with China in the
Far East. Consequently, Moscow wants to send a strong signal that it
is willing to take far-reaching steps to defend Russian territory.
Jamestown and The Diplomat (2010)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Sergei Shoigu, Far East,
Vostok 2014, Ukraine, Malaysian Airlines MH17, Crimea,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, China, Lake Baikal,
Dmitry Medvedev, India, Vietnam

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
• Russia's desperate relationship with China

****
**** Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
****


Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu (Ria Novosti)

On Thursday, Russia's military completed a week of drills and
exercises in the Far East, involving 100,000 servicemen, 1,500 tanks,
120 aircraft, 5,000 pieces of weaponry, and up to 70 ships, involving
almost the entire Russian Pacific fleet.

Nominally, the purpose of Vostok 2014 is to prepare for war with the
United States. And indeed, the Russia media has been doing everything
possible to stir nationalistic anti-US hysteria, especially since the
Ukraine war started:

• There are daily stories about "bloody Ukrainian fascists,"
  funded and controlled by American masters.
• A large anti-war rally in Moscow last Sunday, involving 5,000
  protesters, was described as a handful of misguided "trators" managed
  by America.
• The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) was created by
  America, and is being funded by America.
• Ukrainian troops "raiding our western regions" are linked to ISIS,
  guided by America.
• Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was either a plot to kill president
  Vladimir Putin or a plot with the airliner previously packed with
  corpses.
• The internet is a CIA "special project" designed to spread
  misinformation about Russia.

In the midst of all this anti-US hysteria, it's not surprising that
Vostok 2014 is being described as preparations for war with America.
And yet, the assets deployed during this exercise were more consistent
with preparing for a defense of the Far East, a region that America
would be unlikely to invade if it wanted to invade Russia at all. The
only state actor that against which such a defense is needed is China.
Ria Novosti and BBC and Jamestown

****
**** Russia's desperate relationship with China
****

Russia has become increasingly isolated in world, thanks to its
support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad and because of its invasion of
Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. The West has imposed sanctions on
Russia which, whatever their economic importance, have had huge
symbolic importance. However, Russia has been able to count on China,
which is also invading and annexing other countries' territories, for
support in the United Nations Security Council, and for trade deals
for energy and agricultural products.

However, beneath the smiles and handshakes, China and Russia have a
very troubled relationship. The two countries almost went to war in
the 1960s, but the biggest of their current problems is the danger of
a Chinese "invasion" of Russia's Far East.

Russia's population in the Far East has fallen dramatically in the
last 20 years, and could fall significantly lower. The population of
Russia east of Lake Baikal dropped from 8 million to 6 million from
1998-2002, and has continued falling since then. But the three
Chinese provinces just across the river are packed with people, with a
total population of 110 million people. Furthermore, the Russian
region has substantial deposits of gold, oil, natural gas, coal,
timber, silver, platinum, lead and zinc, as well as rich fishing
grounds and vast expanses of unpopulated land.

With its desperate political dependency on China, Russia has said
little recently about the Chinese threat to the Far East. But they
did in the past. In 2008, Russia's then-President Dmitry Medvedev
warned that, " don’t step up the level of activity of our work [in the
Russian Far East], then in the final analysis we can lose everything."

The Chinese agree. According to one Chinese analyst, "It’s a law of
physics; a vacuum has to be filled. If there are no Russian people
here, there will be Chinese people."

As a result, while paying lip service to closer relations with China,
Russia is also developing close relations with China's enemies,
especially India and Vietnam. ( "17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam"
)

Thus, although the Vostok 2014 military drills in the Far East are
signal to the West that it's willing to take military action when
necessary, Russia fears the long-term risks of war with China in the
Far East. Consequently, Moscow wants to send a strong signal that it
is willing to take far-reaching steps to defend Russian territory.
Jamestown and The Diplomat (2010)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Sergei Shoigu, Far East,
Vostok 2014, Ukraine, Malaysian Airlines MH17, Crimea,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, China, Lake Baikal,
Dmitry Medvedev, India, Vietnam

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Vostok is all about Japan and Alaska. Has nothing to do with China. Maybe someday I will convince you the "Sino-Soviet Split" was a jack move, meant to fake out the West.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> Vostok is all about Japan and Alaska. Has nothing to do with
> China. Maybe someday I will convince you the "Sino-Soviet Split"
> was a jack move, meant to fake out the West.

What? Russia is planning to take back Alaska?

Or maybe, as suggested last night by someone in the Generational
Dynamics forum, maybe the jack move is China's support of Russia,
which is meant to fake out Russia, in order to keep Russia busy in the
West, tied down militarily in Ukraine. This would leave China free to
take over "the entire eastern 1/3 of Russia." If China wanted to do
that, there's really nothing that Russia could do to stop it.

This thread is hilarious.

Originally Posted by Einzige

This thread is hilarious.

Oh, really? What do YOU think Vostok 2014 is all about?

*** 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO must respond to 'unprecedented scale of humanitarian emergencies'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• WHO must respond to 'unprecedented scale of humanitarian emergencies'
• Britain votes joins countries at war against ISIS

****
**** WHO must respond to 'unprecedented scale of humanitarian emergencies'
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) plans on having to deal with only
one Grade 3 humanitarian emergency every 2-4 years. Grade 3 is the
highest level emergency, with "substantial public health consequences
that requires a ... substantial international WHO response."

However, WHO now finds itself dealing with five Grade 3 emergencies
at the same time:

• West Africa Ebola outbreak: 22 million people living in
  the three worst-affected countries – Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
  – are at risk.
• Iraq: 20 million people affected, including 1.8 million who
  are internally displaced.
• Syria: 10.8 million people inside Syria, including 6.5
  million people displaced within the country. Another 3 million people
  have fled the conflict to regional neighbors Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan,
  Iraq and Egypt.
• South Sudan: 5.8 million people need humanitarian
  assistance, including 1.3 million who have been displaced.
• Central African Republic: 2.5 million people are in need,
  including 425 000 displaced.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is also
experiencing several major, high level geopolitical crises:

• The Mideast: Genocide and chemical weapons use by
  Syria's president Bashar al-Assad; Gaza war; rise of The Islamic State
  / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS); US, Britain, other countries all but
  declaring war on ISIS; Houthi takeover of Yemen.
• Ukraine: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of
  Crimea
• China: China's annexation of other countries' territories
  in the South China Sea; border conflicts with India
• Pakistan: Government in chaos; massive floods; increased
  Taliban attacks; American withdrawal from Afghanistan

Unfortunately, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this
is not surprising. Once World War II ended, the survivors made sure
that nothing so horrible would ever happen to their children and
grandchildren, and they succeeded. But they're disappearing fast, and
the generations that grew up after the war are like teenagers driving
drunk. And also unfortunately, this trend will continue until the
world, once again, is in total war. World Health Organization (WHO)

****
**** Britain votes joins countries at war against ISIS
****

After a seven-hour debate in the House of Commons, the MPs voted
overwhelmingly in favor of military action in Iraq by 524-43. All
three parties supported the vote. Prime minister David Cameron did
not request a vote on air strikes in Syria, because he believed that
the vote would be defeated.

Here's a summary of all the countries participating in the war against
ISIS:

• Syria airstrikes: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
  (UAE), Bahrain, Jordan. Qatar played a supporting role.
• Iraq jets/airstrikes: Australia, Belgium, Britain, Denmark,
  France, Netherlands.
• Iraq weapons/soldiers: Canada, Czech Republic, France,
  Germany, Italy, Albania, Estonia, Hungary.

Russia and Turkey are still talking it over. Daily Mail (London) and BBC and NBC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World Health Organization, WHO,
Ebola, Iraq, Syria, South Sudan, Central African Republic,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Bashar al-Assad, Gaza, Britain, Houthi, Yemen,
Ukraine, Russia, China, South China Sea, India,
Pakistan, Afghanistan

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Originally Posted by Einzige

This thread is hilarious.

With just that hint of pathetic.

Old clueless folks building complicated models out of lies, wisps, and other assorted imaginings. At least it keeps them active and out of trouble in their twilight years.

As for me, I plan on gardening when my time comes.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> With just that hint of pathetic.

> Old clueless folks building complicated models out of lies, wisps,
> and other assorted imaginings. At least it keeps them active and
> out of trouble in their twilight years.

> As for me, I plan on gardening when my time comes.

Or, sometimes people become senile while they're still young. You
appear to be in that class. At least it keeps them inactive and out
of trouble. Maybe you should start gardening right away.

So, what do YOU think Vostok 2014 is all about?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

So, what do YOU think Vostok 2014 is all about?

The same thing as the term paper being written by a college student named Xiao in Chengdu and the chemical makeup of Alpha Centauri's Oort Belt -- "not me or mine".

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> The same thing as the term paper being written by a college
> student named Xiao in Chengdu and the chemical makeup of Alpha
> Centauri's Oort Belt -- "not me or mine".

What we see here with Einzige and Justin is why generational theory
always works, without fail.

On the one hand, we have Einzige, whose name indicates that she's a
unique young girl, probably part of the young generation who think
that everyone over the age of 50 is full of crap, and everything they
write is "hilarious."

And yet, most of the people in this younger generation couldn't even
find Russia on a map.

These are people who think that the world stops at the end of their
front lawns, and that history always begins this morning. Everything
outside of those parameters is hilarious.

And then we have Justin, one of Vladimir Putin's paid army of trolls,
whose job is to spread disinformation and to personally attack anyone
who tells what's really going on.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...15.htm#e140815

So generational theory says that the same things happen over and over
again, and we know they do. Britons who thought that Hitler was a
nice guy and that other opinions were "hilarious" were shocked as hell
when his Luftwaffe started bombing London.

It's well to remember that Stalin was shocked too. He had made a deal
with Hitler that they would split up some European countries between
them, and in return Hitler wouldn't invade Russia. So Stalin almost
went into a catatonic shock when Hitler did invade. Hitler made
a total fool out of Stalin.

Russians like to whine and complain about the Great Patriotic War,
but they don't point out that if Stalin had been preparing for war
instead of assuming that Hitler was his pal, then the Great Patriotic
War might not have been nearly as bad.

Now we see Putin cozying up to his pals in China, probably thinking that
with all his energy deals and SCO meetings and agriculture deals that
China won't invade Russia's Far East.

But it looks to me that Xi Jinping is going to make a total fool out
of Putin, the same way that Hitler made a total fool out of Stalin.

In the meantime, the Russian people believe that the airliner crash occurred
because Nato shot it down to embarrass Putin. The Russian people
should be embracing the West instead of China. You can't overestimate
the stupidity of the Russian people, or the trolls that support them.

And as I said, generational theory tells us that the same things
happen over and over.

*** 28-Sep-14 World View -- Central African Republican government asks UN to lift arms embargo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudis prepare for MERS and Ebola at Hajj
• Central African Republican government asks UN to lift arms embargo

****
**** Saudis prepare for MERS and Ebola at Hajj
****


Hajj in Mecca, 1920 (Getty)

Saudis are preparing for a double-dose of danger at this year's Hajj
on October 2-7, when millions of Muslims from around the world arrive
for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Hajj
pilgrims will be asked to wear face masks this year to reduce the
risks of spreading MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome
coronavirus) or Ebola.

Both diseases have an incubation period of about 2-20 days, meaning
that someone could be sick, spreading the disease, for several
days without showing symptoms. Both diseases are spread by
physical contact, with airborne contamination rare though not
impossible. Health care workers are often the most vulnerable,
since they become contaminated while treating infected patients.

The Saudi Ministry of Health last month banned Hajj visas for Sierra
Leone, Guinea, and Liberia — the three nations most affected by Ebola
this year with at least 5,800 cases. Nigeria, a country with one of
the highest concentration of Hajj pilgrims in the world, was left out
of the ban, because the 20 Ebola cases have all been isolated.
Pilgrims arriving at the airport near Mecca are being screened by the
health ministry. Vox and The Health Site and BBC

****
**** Central African Republican government asks UN to lift arms embargo
****

Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, Central
African Republic president Catherine Samba-Panza asked the United
Nations to modify its imposed arms embargo to permit the CAR army to
have weapons, so that the army will be able help the
U.N. peacekeepers.

CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era.
The early stages of the new generational crisis war
began last year when Muslim Seleka militias began
committing atrocities. French Foreign Legion troops arrived to disarm
the Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias
"rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities this year,
for revenge.

In December, the Security Council imposed an arms embargo on the
Central African Republic and the African Union sent a peacekeeping
mission, now at 6,000 troops, to attempt to quell the spreading
violence. The United Nations took over the AU peacekeeping mission
last week, and plans to double the force to 12,000 troops.

The violence originally began in the capital city Bangui, but
has been spreading to towns and villages across the country.
Thousands of people have been killed, and rapes and mutilations
have been reported frequently. The conflict has uprooted
or affected millions of people.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has categorized CAR's health
crisis as "Grade 3" - its highest level. The country's health
infrastructure has broken down, with 50-75% of the health
facilities no longer able to offer basic services.

However, a generational crisis war is a force of nature, and cannot be
stopped by a few peacekeeping forces than a tsunami can be stopped by
a bucket brigade. Many of the villages across the vast country are
far out of reach of a few thousand peacekeepers, and the people in
these villages have little motivation to stop fighting, when they can
get revenge killings by the other side in other villages.

My guess is that it's unlikely that the United Nations will vote to
end the arms embargo, since it's pretty clear that any weapons
entering CAR for any reason will, sooner or later, be used by either
the Seleka or anti-balaka militias to further the slaughter. Reuters and World Health Organization (WHO)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Hajj, Mecca, Ebola,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea,
Central African Republic, Catherine Samba-Panza,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Seleka, anti-balaka, World Health Organization, WHO

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*** 29-Sep-14 World View -- India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden
• Saudi Arabia warns that Yemen coup could threaten global security
• Pro-democracy protests bring Hong Kong to a standstill

****
**** India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden
****


Narendra Modi in Madison Square Garden on Sunday (Reuters)

India's prime minister Narendra Modi received rock stars cheers from
the 18,000 people, mostly Indian-Americans, in Madison Square Garden
on Sunday, as well as the thousands more outside who had been unable
to gain entrance.

Modi's one-hour speech drew cheers of "Modi! Modi! Modi!" and
rock-star ovations. According to Modi:

<QUOTE>"I got here selling tea... I am a very small man, a
common man. I am small, so my heart lies in working for the common
man. But I want to do big things for the little
people."<END QUOTE>

At the heart of his speech, he was asking the wealthy and skilled
persons of Indian origin to give back their talent and experience to
India.

Promising that "I will make the India of your dreams... together we
will serve Mother India," he highlighted his avowed (Hindutva) Hindu
nationalism. Narendra Modi won a stunning and historic overwhelming
victory in May of this year that surprised the world, but his Hindu
nationalism has made him a controversial figure. Much of the
controversy comes from his association with an incident of Hindutva
violence of February 27, 2002, at a time when he was governor of
Gujarat province. An attempt to molest a Muslim girl triggered
several days of sectarian violence between Hindus and Muslims, killing
hundreds and displacing more than 150,000 people, of which the
majority were Muslims, who have since been living in refugee camps in
dire humanitarian conditions. Modi himself was cleared by a court of
culpability, but he's blamed by Muslims and political opponents for
not taking a more active role in ending the violence.

Because of the Gujarat incident, Modi was denied entry into the United
States by President Bush's administration in 2005. That ban is still
in effect, but he was granted a diplomatic visa for this week's visit
to the United Nations. Times of India and Time

****
**** Saudi Arabia warns that Yemen coup could threaten global security
****

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Saud al-Faisal says that Yemen is
facing "unprecedented challenges" threatening global security, after
last weekend's government coup by the Houthi rebels from northern
Yemen. The Houthis are members of the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam, and
it's believed that Iran has funded the Houthis and provided weapons
for their takeover. Southern Yemen is the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and it's feared that the AQAP branch
Ansar al-Sharia of Sunni jihadists are regrouping for a counterattack
against the Houthis.

According to Prince Saud:

<QUOTE>"Yemen faces accelerating and extremely dangerous
conditions that require us all to look and propose the necessary
solutions to confront these unprecedented challenges.

[Yemen’s violence] will no doubt extend to threaten stability and
security on the regional and international arena that could prove
difficult to put down regardless of the resources and efforts that
may be exerted."<END QUOTE>

The broad news coverage of the war against the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS) has made the news from Yemen almost invisible.
However, Prince Saud said that all forms of terrorism must be
addressed:

<QUOTE>"We face a very dangerous situation today. Terrorism
has evolved from cells to armies and from threatening specific
spots to nations. The war on terror requires serious and
continuous work that may go on for years, and must not stop at
partial victories against limited organizations. We must continue
until all terrorist organizations are destroyed, wherever they may
be."<END QUOTE>

Yemen Online and
Arab Times Online

****
**** Pro-democracy protests bring Hong Kong to a standstill
****

China's Communist Party government in Beijing is facing a government
crisis as tens of thousands of Hong Kong citizens staged pro-democracy
protests on Sunday, the fourth day of protests. These were the worst
protests in Hong Kong in decades, bringing central Hong Kong to a
standstill. Beijing is now faced with the choice of allowing the
demonstrations to go on, which would encourage protests in mainland
cities, versus a bloody crackdown on the protesters.

Tensions have already escalated sharply, as Hong Kong police in riot
gear unleashed volleys of tear gas on protesters early Monday morning,
and first rubber bullets into the air. This is the worst police
violence since Britain gave up its Hong Kong colony in 1997, returning
it to Chinese sovereignty.

There are "credible reports" that China has activated the Hong Kong
garrison of its People's Liberation Army (PLA), putting 6,000 soldiers
on alert. This would revive harsh memories of Beijing's Tiananmen
Square massacre on June 4, 1989. It's forbidden for anyone in
mainland China to even talk about the 1989 massacre, but on June 4 of
this year, over 100,000 people gathered in Hong Kong to commemorate
the 25th anniversary of the massacre. A new Tiananmen-style massacre
in Hong Kong in the next few days could have unintended consequences
for Beijing. LA Times and BBC (4-Jun-2014)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, Madison Square Garden,
Hindutva, Hindu Nationalism, Gujarat,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Saud al-Faisal, Houthis, Zaydi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Iran, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
China, Hong Kong, Tiananmen Square massacre,
People's Liberation Army, PLA

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 29-Sep-14 World View -- India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden
• Saudi Arabia warns that Yemen coup could threaten global security
• Pro-democracy protests bring Hong Kong to a standstill

****
**** India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden
****


Narendra Modi in Madison Square Garden on Sunday (Reuters)

India's prime minister Narendra Modi received rock stars cheers from
the 18,000 people, mostly Indian-Americans, in Madison Square Garden
on Sunday, as well as the thousands more outside who had been unable
to gain entrance.

Modi's one-hour speech drew cheers of "Modi! Modi! Modi!" and
rock-star ovations. According to Modi:

<QUOTE>"I got here selling tea... I am a very small man, a
common man. I am small, so my heart lies in working for the common
man. But I want to do big things for the little
people."<END QUOTE>

At the heart of his speech, he was asking the wealthy and skilled
persons of Indian origin to give back their talent and experience to
India.

Promising that "I will make the India of your dreams... together we
will serve Mother India," he highlighted his avowed (Hindutva) Hindu
nationalism. Narendra Modi won a stunning and historic overwhelming
victory in May of this year that surprised the world, but his Hindu
nationalism has made him a controversial figure. Much of the
controversy comes from his association with an incident of Hindutva
violence of February 27, 2002, at a time when he was governor of
Gujarat province. An attempt to molest a Muslim girl triggered
several days of sectarian violence between Hindus and Muslims, killing
hundreds and displacing more than 150,000 people, of which the
majority were Muslims, who have since been living in refugee camps in
dire humanitarian conditions. Modi himself was cleared by a court of
culpability, but he's blamed by Muslims and political opponents for
not taking a more active role in ending the violence.

Because of the Gujarat incident, Modi was denied entry into the United
States by President Bush's administration in 2005. That ban is still
in effect, but he was granted a diplomatic visa for this week's visit
to the United Nations. Times of India and Time

****
**** Saudi Arabia warns that Yemen coup could threaten global security
****

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Saud al-Faisal says that Yemen is
facing "unprecedented challenges" threatening global security, after
last weekend's government coup by the Houthi rebels from northern
Yemen. The Houthis are members of the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam, and
it's believed that Iran has funded the Houthis and provided weapons
for their takeover. Southern Yemen is the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and it's feared that the AQAP branch
Ansar al-Sharia of Sunni jihadists are regrouping for a counterattack
against the Houthis.

According to Prince Saud:

<QUOTE>"Yemen faces accelerating and extremely dangerous
conditions that require us all to look and propose the necessary
solutions to confront these unprecedented challenges.

[Yemen’s violence] will no doubt extend to threaten stability and
security on the regional and international arena that could prove
difficult to put down regardless of the resources and efforts that
may be exerted."<END QUOTE>

The broad news coverage of the war against the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS) has made the news from Yemen almost invisible.
However, Prince Saud said that all forms of terrorism must be
addressed:

<QUOTE>"We face a very dangerous situation today. Terrorism
has evolved from cells to armies and from threatening specific
spots to nations. The war on terror requires serious and
continuous work that may go on for years, and must not stop at
partial victories against limited organizations. We must continue
until all terrorist organizations are destroyed, wherever they may
be."<END QUOTE>

Yemen Online and
Arab Times Online

****
**** Pro-democracy protests bring Hong Kong to a standstill
****

China's Communist Party government in Beijing is facing a government
crisis as tens of thousands of Hong Kong citizens staged pro-democracy
protests on Sunday, the fourth day of protests. These were the worst
protests in Hong Kong in decades, bringing central Hong Kong to a
standstill. Beijing is now faced with the choice of allowing the
demonstrations to go on, which would encourage protests in mainland
cities, versus a bloody crackdown on the protesters.

Tensions have already escalated sharply, as Hong Kong police in riot
gear unleashed volleys of tear gas on protesters early Monday morning,
and first rubber bullets into the air. This is the worst police
violence since Britain gave up its Hong Kong colony in 1997, returning
it to Chinese sovereignty.

There are "credible reports" that China has activated the Hong Kong
garrison of its People's Liberation Army (PLA), putting 6,000 soldiers
on alert. This would revive harsh memories of Beijing's Tiananmen
Square massacre on June 4, 1989. It's forbidden for anyone in
mainland China to even talk about the 1989 massacre, but on June 4 of
this year, over 100,000 people gathered in Hong Kong to commemorate
the 25th anniversary of the massacre. A new Tiananmen-style massacre
in Hong Kong in the next few days could have unintended consequences
for Beijing. LA Times and BBC (4-Jun-2014)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, Madison Square Garden,
Hindutva, Hindu Nationalism, Gujarat,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Saud al-Faisal, Houthis, Zaydi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Iran, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
China, Hong Kong, Tiananmen Square massacre,
People's Liberation Army, PLA

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Thatcher should have spat upon the 99 year treaty. That treaty was signed with a government deposed by the Nationalists, and then the Nationalists were deposed by the Communists. The treaty was worthless by the time the 99 years was up. As I watched the hand over on that rainy evening, I could foresee the current situation well prior to the supposed 50 years of "one country two systems" false promise's time frame of expiry.

*** 30-Sep-14 World View -- Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong police back off as demonstrations continue
• Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria

****
**** Hong Kong police back off as demonstrations continue
****


Riot police use pepper spray in Hong Kong on Sunday (Slate)

The massive protests in Hong Kong have caught the world's attention,
and the world is waiting breathlessly to see how long China's
government in Beijing is going to put up with being humiliated by the
protests.

Hong Kong has already been forced to cancel a big, glorious fireworks
celebration on Wednesday, October 1, China's National Day, and the
65th anniversary of China's communist revolution. Instead, the
protests will be bigger than ever on Wednesday and Thursday, since
those are two public holidays.

For Beijing, the hopeful outcome is that the protests will just
die off of their own accord. That's probably why the HK police,
who fired teargas and rubber bullets at protesters on Sunday
evening, have backed off on Monday and allowed the protests
to continue. The hopeful scenario is that the protesters will
tire of protesting, and just go home.

Beijing's nightmare scenario is that the protests will grow, will
continue to paralyze Hong Kong, and will continue to humiliate
Beijing.

But the humiliation could be a lot worse if the rumors are true that
China is considering use of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to
break up the protests. The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre shocked the
world, and China has spent the last 25 years doing everything it can
to try to get everyone to forget it ever happened, going so far as to
make it a criminal offense for a Chinese citizen on the mainland to
even talk about it. A new 2015 "Hong Kong massacre," in the world of
Twitter and Facebook, would make both massacres world wide news again,
completely reversing Xi Jinping's strategy of presenting a more
positive Chinese face.

Nonetheless, nobody serious believes that Beijing is going to grant to
Hong Kong the democratic freedoms that were promised in 1997, when
Britain turned HK over to China. China has no pleasant choices in
this situations, and most of the world really do not expect the
demonstrations to end, except in new violence. Bloomberg and Global Times (Beijing)

****
**** Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria
****

Ever since the Syrian conflict broke out in 2011, Syrian refugees
poured across the border into Turkey. Despite international pressure,
Turkey refused to consider any military action in Syria, such as
providing a refugee buffer zone within Syria, and more recently
refused to participate in the American-led war against the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).

But now the crisis in Kobani, Syria, on the border with Turkey, is
presenting an existential threat to Turkey, and Turkish officials are
now talking about both a buffer zone and joining the anti-ISIS
coalition.

There have been two major reasons why Turkey has eschewed any
military intervention in Syria since 2011:

• Turkish officials, like American officials, were in a state of
  denial, expecting Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to be forced out
  of office within weeks, or at most a few months. This fantasy
  persisted even when the civil war morphed into a proxy war, with
  Russia supplying heavy weapons to al-Assad, and al-Assad's actions
  becoming increasingly genocidal.
  
• Turkey feared that any military intervention against al-Assad
  would end up helping the Syrian Kurds. Turkey had recently fought its
  own civil war with the Kurds in Turkey, and there was no desire to
  help the Kurds in Syria.

But the crisis in Kobani, in Syria on the border with Turkey,
has been so bad that Turkey is now forced to reassess its
decisions.

Kobani has been a Kurdish stronghold in Syria. ISIS fighters
have been advancing on Kobani in recent weeks, despite the
fact that coalition bombers tried to stop them. But the
coalition bombings have been a failure, and it's now expected
that Kobani will fall to ISIS within the next couple of days.

The effect on Turkey has been nothing short of explosive. During
the last two weeks, more than 160,000 Kurdish refugees from
Syria have poured across the border into Turkey.

Back in 2011, when refugees started crossing into Turkey, Turkish
officials estimated that they would be able to handle about 100,000
refugees, and after that there would be major problems. Well, as of
last month over 1.2 million Syrian refugees have crossed into Turkey,
and now 160,000 more refugees have joined them in the last few days.

In 2011, when there were only tens of thousands of refugees, then were
kept in refugee camps near the border. But now these 1.5 million
refugees have spread across Turkey, and are populating many cities and
villages.

The effects have been mixed. Most of the refugees speak only Arabic,
so there's a language problem with locals who speak only Turkish. In
some villages they're helped and supported, but in other villages
they're threatened, or even forced into slavery or human trafficking.

The Kobani crisis has been be a major shock to Turkish officials, who
now realize that they have to take some military steps whether they
like it or not. Turkey has already announced that it's reevaluating
its decision to join the anti-ISIS coalition, and Turkey's foreign
minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu said on Monday that "A safe zone inside
Syria is essential to make life easier for the Syrian refugees."
Turkish tanks have already taken up positions facing Syria. Spiegel and Journal of Turkish Weekly and Daily Sabah (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, China, Tiananmen Square,
Syria, Kobani, Turkey, Arabic, Turkish, Kurds, Mevlüt Çavusoglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,

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*** 1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar
• Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests
• Polio cases surging in Pakistan to record-breaking levels

****
**** Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar
****


Russian 500 ruble note

Apparently the European and American sanctions on Russia for the
latters invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea are having some
effect after all. The value of the ruble currency has fallen over 20%
against the dollar this year. The ruble is now at the lowest point
since it was restructured during Moscow's traumatic 1998 debt default.

This comes at a time when Russia's economy is suffering for other
reasons, particularly the falling price of oil. Libya has massively
increased production, and OPEC is producing more than forecast. Iraq,
Nigeria, and Angola and Saudi Arabia have each boosted output. These
increased supplies of oil have pushed the price of oil down to $97 per
barrel on Tuesday, which reduces the price of all forms of energy,
which is Russia's main export.

The fall in the ruble is causing Russia to consider adopting capital
controls in order to stop the fall of the ruble. Possible capital
controls could include taxes, tariffs, and legislation banning or
regulating certain activities, such as owning foreign assets.
Russia's Central Bank spent over $72 billion in the first three months
of this year to prop up the ruble, as Russia's seizure of Crimea
caused a huge currency selloff. Moscow Times and MarketWatch and Reuters

****
**** Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests
****

The size of the Hong Kong protests grew on Tuesday, although there was
no violence by either the police or the protesters. Hong Kong's chief
executive, Leung Chun-ying, "The central government will not rescind
its decision." Both he and Beijing officials demanded that the
protesters go home immediately, suggesting that their patience was
ebbing. The biggest protests are expected on Wednesday and Thursday,
since those are public holidays celebrating the 45th anniversary of
Mao Zedong's Communist revolution.

Taiwanese officials are watching the events in Hong Kong closely
for hints about how the Beijing government would treat Taiwan
if its government came under direct control of China.

Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jou, of the Kuomingtang (KMT) political
party, asked the mainland authorities and the demonstrators to show
tolerance and self-restraint in handling the matter. Ma noted that as
the mainland authorities have promised Hong Kong self-administration
and a high degree of autonomy, the KMT believes that both Hong Kong
and China stand to benefit if these promises are fulfilled.

The Kuomingtang (KMT) is the modern day incarnation of Chiang
Kai-shek's original nationalist party that fought against Mao Zedong
and lost, and fled to Hong Kong, then a British colony, and from there
to Formosa (Taiwan) in 1949, at the conclusion of the civil war. The
KMT position has always been that Taiwan is part of China, and that
one day they'll be fully reunited.

Joseph Wu, the head of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP), said that the Hong Kong and China governments should be more
open and receptive to the voices of the people and the wisdom of its
citizens, and that the government should reassess its position.

The people of Taiwan watched the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in
Beijing with horror, and it led to the Wild Lily student rebellion in
1990. By 2000, the student rebellion had morphed into the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) which, in contrast to the KMT, was committed
to Taiwan's complete independence from China. DPP has moderated that
opinion in the face of military threats from Beijing.

With regard to the Hong Kong demonstrations, both political parties
said that the outcome of the demonstrations would affect Taiwan's
relations with China. Depending on the response by Chinese
authorities, the DPP did not rule out a "drastic" change in policy.
USA Today / AP and China Post (Taipei)

****
**** Polio cases surging in Pakistan to record-breaking levels
****

Pakistan's health officials have confirmed another 10 polio cases on
Monday. Pakistan is now only 15 cases short of breaking its own
14-year-old record of 199 polio cases in the year 2000. This is a
major setback for a country that as recently as 2005 saw just 28
cases, and seemed on track for polio eradication.

Most of the polio cases are in Pakistan's tribal area and northwest
provinces, where the Taliban has the greatest strength. Pakistan has
been a particular problem because the Taliban have been murdering
health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines,
ever since the administration bragged in 2011 that a vaccination
program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama
bin Laden. In a recent day-long national campaign, over 16,000
children could not be vaccinated due to their parents' resistance.
Many parents refuse vaccinations due to fear of Taliban who say that
the polio medicine is a conspiracy by the West to sterile Muslims.
The Taliban have attacked and killed health workers who provide the
vaccines, as well has parents who permit their children to be
vaccinated.

Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the three remaining countries
where polio is endemic. The News (Islamabad) and IRIN (United Nations) and Business Standard (India)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, ruble, Ukraine, Crimea,
OPEC, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Angola, Saudi Arabia,
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Leung Chun-ying,
Ma Ying-jou, Kuomingtang, KMT, Chiang Kai-shek,
Joseph Wu, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
Pakistan, polio, Osama bin Laden, Taliban,
Nigeria, Afghanistan

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