Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This comes at a time when Russia's economy is suffering for other
reasons, particularly the falling price of oil. Libya has massively
increased production, and OPEC is producing more than forecast. Iraq,
Nigeria, and Angola and Saudi Arabia have each boosted output. These
increased supplies of oil have pushed the price of oil down to $97 per
barrel on Tuesday, which reduces the price of all forms of energy,
which is Russia's main export.

The US has also massively increased production.

*** 2-Oct-14 World View -- Turkey will vote Thursday on military action in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey will vote Thursday on military action in Syria
• Turkey's Suleiman Shah Tomb in Syria endangered by ISIS
• Hong Kong protesters raise their demands

****
**** Turkey will vote Thursday on military action in Syria
****


Turkey's Parliament will vote on military action in Syria and Iraq

Turkey's parliament expects to debate and vote on Thursday on the
following motion:

<QUOTE>"The Cabinet of Ministers has decided to ask
permission from Parliament to send Turkish troops to foreign
countries when necessary for cross-border interventions and to
allow foreign troops in Turkey for the same purposes. ...

[The intent is to] defeat attacks directed at our country from all
terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria."<END QUOTE>

There are two "terrorist groups" that are intended targets: the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) the PKK
(Kurdistan Workers Party), the terrorists who have fought a civil war
with Turkey

As I discussed in detail several days ago
( "30-Sep-14 World View -- Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria" ),
this represents a major reversal of
policies that have been in effect since the beginning of the Syrian
conflict in 2011.

The motion quoted above has two parts, both of which represent major
policy changes:

• Turkish troops will be sent to foreign countries. The purpose
  will be to fight ISIS and the PKK. But there will be an additional
  objective to create a "secure region" or "safe haven" in northern
  Syria to house Syrian refugees, so that they won't have to enter
  Turkey. Turkey repeatedly refused to do anything like this in
  2011-12.
  
• Turkey will allow foreign troops in Turkey. This particularly
  refers to the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, near the borders with Syria
  and Iraq. Turkey will now allow American and coalition troops into
  Incirlik, and would permit bombing raids to take off from Incirlik,
  rather than having to travel the much longer distances to the Persian
  Gulf.

The motion is very controversial, but is expected to be approved.
Today's Zaman (Ankara) and Hurriyet Daily News (Ankara)


****
**** Turkey's Suleiman Shah Tomb in Syria endangered by ISIS
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday insisted that the
Suleiman Shah Tomb is not in danger of being attacked by ISIS forces.

The Suleiman Shah Tomb is a Turkish enclave situated in the Syria, in
the town of Aleppo, guarded by Turkish soldiers. It's the burial
place of the grandfather of the Osman 1, the founder of the Ottoman
Empire. The tomb in Syria is the only Turkish territory outside of
Turkey's borders. There is a concern that ISIS militants will attack
the Turkish soldiers guarding the tomb and take them as hostages.
Erdogan insisted that the tomb is not endangered by ISIS militants.
Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and Today's Zaman (Ankara)

****
**** Hong Kong protesters raise their demands
****

Hong Kong officials are signaling that they'll allow the protesters to
continue the "Occupy Central" protests to continue for days or even
weeks, as long as they remain peaceful.

However, protesters are indicating that they're going to escalate the
protests by occupying government buildings, something that will
certainly trigger police action. The protesters are now making two
demands:

• They're demanding the resignation of Hong Kong's
  Beijing-appointed leader, Leung Chun-ying.
  
• They're demanding that Beijing back down and fulfill its
  commitment to permit full democracy, as specified in the 1997
  agreement that turned the British colony over to China. In
  particular, they're demanding that anyone be allowed to run in the
  2017 elections, not just candidates selected by Beijing.

Wednesday is the 45th anniversary of China's of Mao Zedong's Communist
revolution, and Wednesday and Thursday are public holidays. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Incirlik Air Base, Suleiman Shah Tomb, Osman 1, Ottoman Empire,
Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying, Communist Revolution

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 3-Oct-14 World View -- Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Beach sands become an unlikely business opportunity
• Turkey's parliament approves military operations in Syria and Iraq
• Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone

****
**** Beach sands become an unlikely business opportunity
****


Palm Island project in Dubai. These islands were created with some 385 million tons of sand. (Spiegel)

The beaches of Cape Verde, Kenya, New Zealand, Jamaica, Morocco and
other countries are changing from sandy resorts to masses of black
dirt and stones. The reason is that sand miners are harvesting all
the sand on these beaches, and selling it. It is used in the
production of computer chips, plates and mobile phones. However, the
biggest use is by far the construction industry. Global consumption
of sand mining is estimated at 40 billion tons per year, with 30
billion tons of that used in concrete for the construction industry.
Spiegel

****
**** Turkey's parliament approves military operations in Syria and Iraq
****

As we've been reporting, the attack by Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) on the border city of Kobani, Syria, has
resulting in hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing into Turkey in
just a few days, and this has caused Turkey to completely reverse its Syria policy
that it's followed
since 2011.

On Thursday, Turkey's parliament approved a motion allowing, first,
the deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq and Syria to fight terrorist
groups, and second, to allow Nato troops and warplanes to base out
of Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. The motion passed by 298 votes in
favor, 98 against.

Despite the overwhelming vote, there was still vocal opposition.
Turkish officials would prefer to be attacking Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad, and Turkey doesn't trust the Kurds, whom they would
be supporting against ISIS. Besides ISIS, the authorization extends
to another terrorist group, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), which
whom Turkey fought a civil war in the recent past.

Turkey's defense minister Ismet Yilmaz hastened to say that "immediate
steps should not be expected." However, I would point out that events
are moving quickly in the Mideast, with major changes almost every
day, and now that the authorization motion has passed, the political
pressure will be on to use the military. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone
****

Ebola is spreading at a "terrifying rate" in Sierra Leone,
with five new infections every hour. In Liberia, the disease
has reached every county in the country.

As I wrote last month ( "18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?"
), it's now likely that the pandemic will run its
course in Liberia, and Sierra Leone as well, meaning that all people
there will sooner or later become sick with the disease, and either
survive or not.

There seems to be a fair amount of anxiety in America, sometimes
approaching panic, now that there's an Ebola patient in Texas.

But there is plenty of evidence that countries with good medical
infrastructures will be able to control any outbreaks of Ebola. In
Nigeria, for example, the country in Africa with the largest
population, someone with an Ebola infection arrived by plane in Lagos
in July, eventually resulting in 19 confirmed cases of Ebola and eight
deaths. Some 900 people who were potentially exposed to the
original case and secondary cases were monitored for 21 days.
The infection was stopped in Nigeria, and a similar process stopped
the infection in Senegal.

The relevant methodology for controlling the spread of Ebola is
"contact tracing," which means that potential contacts are located,
and their contacts are located, and so forth, with the resulting
people monitored for 21 days.

According to CDC Director Tom Frieden:

<QUOTE>"Contact tracing is a core public health function. We
always err on the side of identifying and tracking more contacts
rather than less. Our approach in this type of case is to cast
the net widely."<END QUOTE>

The real danger, not mentioned by Frieden, is that Ebola will spread
into a war zone somewhere, where it's impossible to do contact
tracing. For example, Ebola infections in Syria and Iraq would be
very difficult or impossible to control. Guardian (London) and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cape Verde, Kenya, New Zealand, Jamaica, Morocco,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Incirlik Air Base, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal,
Tom Frieden, contact tracing

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 4-Oct-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader condemns 'American Islam'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syrian regime accuses Turkey of 'Act of Aggression' in military vote
• Iran's Supreme Leader condemns 'American Islam'
• Sweden to be first EU country to recognize State of Palestine

****
**** Syrian regime accuses Turkey of 'Act of Aggression' in military vote
****


An explosion in Kobani, Syria, on Friday (Cihan)

The recent vote by Turkey's parliament to allow the deployment of
Turkish troops in Iraq and Syria to fight terrorist groups has drawn
strong criticism from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
The intent, at the urging of the United States, was to allow Turkish
troops to fight the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL) and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party). The vote was triggered
by the ISIS attack on the Syrian border town of Kobani, a town
with a Kurdish population hundreds of thousands of whom have
been fleeing across the border into Turkey.

However, Turkey has not hid the fact that its main objective is not to
fight ISIS but to fight the al-Assad regime. As a result, the
al-Assad regime is criticizing the vote as an "act of aggression" that
will threaten "international and regional peace and security."
According to a Syrian Foreign Ministry statement:

<QUOTE>"The public approach of the Turkish government
represents an act of aggression on a country that is a member
state of the United Nations. ...

The international community should take a serious, firm and
responsible stance to put an end to Ankara's destructive approach,
force it to abide by Security Council resolutions, stop its
unlimited funding to armed, terrorist organizations, and stop
interfering in Syrian affairs."<END QUOTE>

Meanwhile, Turkey's government is dealing with the dilemma of what to
do about the city of Kobani, as ISIS forces close in and threaten to
overrun it. The mixed emotions of Turkey's government are illustrated
by the self-contradictory statement of Turkey's new prime minister,
Ahmet Davutoglu:

<QUOTE>"We wouldn't want Kobani to fall. We'll do whatever we
can to prevent this from happening. ...

Some are saying, 'Why aren't you protecting Kurds in Kobani?' If
the Turkish Armed Forces [TSK] enter Kobani and the Syrian
Turkmens ask, 'Why aren't you saving us?' we would have to go
there as well.

When the Arab citizens across from Reyhanli say, 'Why don't you
save us as well?' we'd have to go there too."<END QUOTE>

In other words, if Turkey saved one group, then they'd have to save
everyone else as well.

So will Turkish troops enter Kobani and stop ISIS from overrunning it?
You sure can't tell from those statements. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and International Business Times

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader condemns 'American Islam'
****

Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has issued a
statement to Muslim pilgrims attending the Hajj in Saudi Arabia, to
condemn not only American Islam, but also al-Qaeda linked jihadists in
Western Asia (Pakistan and Afghanistan):

<QUOTE>"The deceitful enemy is fanning the flames of fire
between Muslims to sideline the motivations behind resistance and
fighting so it can place the Zionist regime and the minions of
Arrogance [West], which are the true enemies, in a safe
environment. Supporting takfiri terrorist groups and their lies in
the countries of Western Asia is a result of this pernicious
policy. This is a warning to all of us so that we must consider
the matter of Muslim unity as our highest national and
international priority.

The Palestinian nation must be hopeful more than ever before,
fighters of jihad must perpetuate their jihad and efforts and
pursue the perennially honorable path of the West Bank with
strength. Muslim nations must demand their governments’ serious
and real support of Palestine, and Muslim government must take
step in this path honestly.

American Islam ... is an Islam that fans the flames of division
between Muslims ... fights the Muslim brother instead of fighting
Zionism and Arrogance ... It is not Islam."<END QUOTE>

This is really a fascinating statement on multiple levels.

There's a Sunni versus Shia divide growing the Mideast, largely driven
by Iran's and Russia's support of Syria's genocidal president Bashar
al-Assad, who has killed and displaced millions of innocent Muslims in
Syria. Khamenei does not acknowledge his own apostasy as a Muslim
supporting the slaughter of millions of other Muslims.

Instead of acknowledging his own guilt is causing Muslims to fight one
another, he absurdly blames it on the Zionist regime (Israel) and the
"minions of Arrogance" (America). Arabs and Persians have been
fighting one another for millennia. I wonder if he also blames that
fighting on the Zionists and on the Americans? Somebody should ask
him.

I assume that the condemnation of American Islam is to excuse jihadist
attacks on America itself. He must be frustrated that American
Muslims are loyal to America, and not to his threats of violence (just
as German-Americans in WW II were loyal to America, not to the Nazis).
He has his own problems in Iran, which is in a generational Awakening
era (like America in the 1960s) and is going through a "generation
gap," where the generations of young Iranians growing up after the
1979 Great Islamic Revolution generally like the West.
( "10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough" )

He also condemns the "takfiri terrorist groups" in Western Asia. The
word "takfiri" refers to someone guilty of apostasy which, as I
described above, he's more guilty of than anyone. Here he's
condemning the terrorist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan that have
been attacking Shia Muslims in those countries, as well as targets
within southeastern Iran itself. Khamenei allows himself to arrange
for the slaughter of as many innocent Muslims as possible, while
condemning only those who slaughter people that he likes.

So this man, who is doing all he can to promote hatred among Muslims
for each other, says that "all of us so that we must consider the
matter of Muslim unity as our highest national and international
priority." What a senile hypocrite! AEI Iran Tracker

****
**** Sweden to be first EU country to recognize State of Palestine
****

Sweden, whose government took a sharp left turn after the September 15
elections, may become the first European Union country to formally
recognize the State of Palestine. Incoming prime minister Stefan
Löfven announced on Friday that he would submit the motion to his new
cabinet. There are three EU countries -- Hungary, Poland and Slovakia
-- that already recognize the State of Palestine, but they have been
doing so since before they joined the EU. Predictably, Swedish
Palestinian groups cheered the move, while Jewish groups condemned it.
The Local (Sweden) and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Kobani, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hajj, Saudi Arabia,
American Islam, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Zionist regime,
takfiri terrorist groups,
Sweden, European Union, State of Palestine,
Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Stefan Löfven

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 5-Oct-14 World View -- Hong Kong protesters fear more violence by China's 'Triad' gangs

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong protesters fear more violence by China's 'Triad' gangs
• Joe Biden apologizes to Turkey's president Erdogan for ISIS remarks

****
**** Hong Kong protesters fear more violence by China's 'Triad' gangs
****


Bloodied student protester on Friday (AP)

Hong Kong's protesting students were bloodied on Friday by
attacks by thugs thought to be from criminal gangs known
as "triads." Protesters have accused the HK police of ignoring
or even supporting the triad attacks on protesters, charges
that the police vehemently deny. Some protesters are
suggesting that the Beijing government is paying triad gangs
to attack the protesters.

Triads are sometimes referred to as "the Chinese Mafia." They're
families of organized crime gangs involved in armed robbery,
racketeering, smuggling, narcotics trafficking, prostitution, gambling
and even contract murder. Their roots go back 1000 years to Buddhist
(White Lotus) secret societies that originally were political. But
over the centuries they morphed into organized crime families. They
were given the name "Triad" by the British because of a triangular
symbol that they use. They are mainly centered in China, Hong Kong
and Macao, but they've spread to other countries as well, including
the United States. There are Triad members featured in the video game
Grand Theft Auto.

Protesters are responding to threats by the Hong Kong government by
promising to allow government buildings, schools and businesses to
open on Monday, while allowing peaceful protests to continue.
AFP and Reuters and Triads And Organized Crime In China

****
**** Joe Biden apologizes to Turkey's president Erdogan for ISIS remarks
****

The Obama administration continues to scramble to fend off scathing
criticism by Obama's former defense secretary, Leon Panetta, who
blames administration policy for the rise of the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). In his book, Panetta
says:

"My fear, as I voiced to the President and others, was that if the
country split apart or slid back into the violence that we'd seen
in the years immediately following the U.S. invasion, it could
become a new haven for terrorists to plot attacks against the
U.S. Iraq's stability was not only in Iraq's interest but also in
ours. I privately and publicly advocated for a residual force
that could provide training and security for Iraq's military."

In a speech on Thursday, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden attempted to deflect
blame from the Obama administration by pointing to every country in
the Mideast as culpable:

<QUOTE>"What happened was, and the history will record this,
what my constant cry was that our biggest problem is our allies,
our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria. The
Turks were great friends and I have a great relationship with
Erdogan, which I spent a lot of time with, the Saudis, the
Emiratis, etc. What were they doing? They were so determined to
take down Assad ... what did they do? They poured hundreds of
millions of dollars and tens of thousands of tons of weapons into
anyone who would fight against Assad. Except that the people who
were being supplied were al-Nusra, and al-Qaeda and the extremist
elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world. ...

So what do we have for the first time? Now, Saudi Arabia has
stopped the funding going on ... The Qataris have cut off their
support for the most extreme elements of the terrorist
organizations. And the Turks, President Erdogan told me, he is an
old friend, said you were right. We let too many people
through. Now they are trying to seal their border."<END QUOTE>

This statement infuriated Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who
said:

<QUOTE>"[Biden] will be history for me if he has indeed used
such expressions. ...

There might have been people traveling on tourist visa but no one
with arms has ever crossed the Turkish border."<END QUOTE>

So Biden spoke by phone with Erdogan on Saturday, and apologized.
According to a White House statement:

<QUOTE>"The vice president apologized for any implication
that Turkey or other allies and partners in the region had
intentionally supplied or facilitated the growth of ISIL or other
violent extremists in Syria."<END QUOTE>

So does that amount to an admission that Panetta was right after all?
Today's Zaman (Ankara) and CBS News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, Triads,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Leon Panetta, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Joe Biden,
Saudi Arabia, Qatar

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong protests may be losing strength
• ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support
• Biden continues apologizing, this time to UAE

****
**** Hong Kong protests may be losing strength
****


Hong Kong protests - live shot at 10 am Monday Hong Kong time (BBC)

Only a few hundred exhausted pro-democracy protesters were in the
streets on Monday morning, the deadline for the Hong Kong government's
ultimatum to clear the streets. The protesters have withdrawn from
protest sites that formerly were blocking access to government
buildings, schools and businesses, and the government has so
far not ordered the police to clear the remaining protest
sites.

The government strategy is to stand back and hope that the protests
fizzle, and to avoid clashes and violence which might motivate
thousands of protesters to return. Quartz

****
**** ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support
****

The leaders of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), an
umbrella group comprising some 100 jihadi groups in Pakistan, has
decided to switch sides and support the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) instead the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra
(Nusra Front) in Syria. According to TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah:

<QUOTE>"We consider the fighters in Iraq and Syria as our
brothers and are proud of their victories. We are their part and
parcel in times of joy and sadness.

The Muslim nation has great expectations from the fighters in Iraq
and Syria. We are with you in the hour of trial and will support
you in all possible ways."<END QUOTE>

However, TTP itself has splintered, and a number of its member groups
have split away, so it seems unlikely that TTP will be able to provide
any help to ISIS. Conversely, ISIS has little organizational
influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan or India, where the Taliban
operate.

The more profound effect is that it continues the increasing
generational change among the world's jihadists. Today's young
jihadists, from the Caucasus to North Africa to Pakistan to Indonesia,
are more drawn to ISIS because it appears to be winning, led by the
youthful Abu Omar al-Baghdadi. This is in contrast to al-Qaeda’s
ageing leaders, most of whom are holed up in the Pakistan - Afghan
tribal belt to save themselves from drones, and who are more and more
seen as tired, ineffective and uninspiring.

According to Fawaz Gerges, of the London School of Economics:

<QUOTE>"The Islamic State's appeal extends beyond the Middle
East. Their strategy is anchored on the simple premise that it is
a winning horse. It has promised the entire ummah — the Muslim
community — that it could deliver victory and
salvation."<END QUOTE>

Thus, there have been reports of jihadi support for ISIS from
Australia, India and Pakistan. China is also concerned about the
influence of ISIS in its disaffected Muslim Uighur community,
according to an article in the Beijing mouthpiece Global Times:

<QUOTE>"They not only want to get training in terrorist
techniques, but also to expand their connections in international
terrorist organizations through actual combat to gain support for
more terrorist activities in China."<END QUOTE>

Even if the TTP cannot provide any real support for ISIS, the TTP
announcement is a worrisome development for Pakistan. The subject of
sending Pakistani fighters to Syria and Iraq to fight for ISIS is a
touchy subject for Pakistan's government in Islamabad, because
Pakistani authorities have repeatedly denied that any such movements
have ever taken place. However, Pakistan jihadi groups themselves
have claimed that they've sent thousands of fighters to Syria and
Iraq. India and The News (Pakistan) and The Diplomat and USA Today

****
**** Biden continues apologizing, this time to UAE
****

As we reported yesterday,

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden had to apologize on Saturday to Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for saying in a speech on Thursday that
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had funded and armed the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and contributed to its
rise. Biden was trying to pin the blame on Mideast states in order to
defuse the scathing criticism from the Obama administration's former
defense secretary, Leon Panetta, whose new book blames administration
policy for the rise of the ISIS.

Dr Anwar Gargash, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs for United
Arab Emirates (UAE) hit back at Biden on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"[These statements] are far from the truth, especially
with relation to the UAE’s role in confronting extremism and
terrorism and its clear and advanced position in recognizing the
dangers, including the danger of financing terrorism and terrorist
groups. ...

[Biden had] ignored the steps and effective measures [taken by the
UAE], which comes as part of a more comprehensive political stand
against this plague."<END QUOTE>

So on Sunday Biden call General Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan,
Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, and apologized to
the UAE for any implications in his recent statements that were
understood to mean that UAE has backed the growth of some of the
terrorist organizations in the region. Biden added that the United
States appreciates the UAE’s historic role in combating extremism and
terrorism as well as its advanced position in this respect.

And so, right now, Leon Panetta's statements blaming the U.S.
administration for the rise of ISIS still stand. Khaleej Times (Dubai) and The National (Abu Dhabi)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, Turkey, Leon Panetta,
Joe Biden, United Arab Emirates, Anwar Gargash,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Mullah Fazlullah,
Fawaz Gerges, China, Uighurs, al-Qaeda

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 7-Oct-14 World View -- U.S. military expands war in Iraq with Apache Helicopters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. military expands war in Iraq with Apache Helicopters
• Thousands of villagers in Kashmir flee India-Pakistan clashes
• Ebola expected to reach France and Britain within three weeks
• Liberia and Sierra Leone introduce School by Radio

****
**** U.S. military expands war in Iraq with Apache Helicopters
****


An Apache helicopter flying over Iraq in 2008 (Army)

The U.S. military has begun using Apache AH-64 attack helicopters to
strike targets of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL) in Iraq. In addition, the number 1,200 of US military personal
on the ground in Iraq is expected to increase to 1,600 within the
coming weeks, although the U.S. administration does not refer to these
as "ground forces."

Up until now, U.S. bombing strikes were all performed by high-flying
warplanes, out of reach of small arms fire and missiles from ISIS
fighters. Military analysts have generally pointed out that warplane
bombing and missile strikes have very limited effectiveness. Apache
helicopters have the advantage that they can be much more effective in
providing close air support for "ground troops," but unlike warplanes
they're vulnerable to enemy small arms and missile fire. During the
previous Iraq war, several Apaches were shot down by enemy fire.
Defense News and ABC News

****
**** Thousands of villagers in Kashmir flee India-Pakistan clashes
****

Tens of thousands of villagers were fleeing their homes in Kashmir on
Monday as Indian and Pakistani troops bombarded each other with
gunfire and mortar shells over the international border known as the
"Line of Control" (LoC), separating the Pakistani-government and
Indian-government regions of Kashmir. Kashmir was a major
battleground for the 1947 Partition war that following the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, one
of the bloodiest wars of the last century, and there have been two
more wars fought across the LoC since then. Monday's fighting was the
worst since a 2003 cease-fire agreement, and took place at a number of
points along the LoC.

According to Pakistan's government, the fighting started when Indian
forces resorted to "unprovoked firing" along the boundary.

An Indian statement blamed Pakistani forces for violating the
ceasefire, and promised "effective retaliation." In a departure from
past practice, India said they would neither speak to Pakistan, nor
seek a flag meeting to lower tensions. AP and Dawn (Pakistan) and Indian Express

****
**** Ebola expected to reach France and Britain within three weeks
****

In Spain, a nurse's assistant contracted Ebola, after treating a
Spanish missionary and Spanish priest who had returned from West
Africa with Ebola. Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns
and airline traffic data to predict a 75% chance the virus could be
imported to France by October 24, and a 50% chance it could hit
Britain by that date. Belgium has a 40% chance. The cases are
expected to be the result of air travel from West Africa.

However, these are expected to be isolated cases that will be
controlled by using techniques like "contact tracing," as I described
a few days ago. ( "3-Oct-14 World View -- Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone"
)

However, West Africa is being overwhelmed by Ebola, and contact
tracing is not possible. Some reports indicate that eastern Guinea
and eastern Liberia, which had remained free of Ebola, are now seeing
it spread to those regions. This means that it will probably next
spread into Cote d'Ivoire.

Countries around the world are ramping up their preparations for Ebola
coming to their countries. As I've said before, Ebola is most likely
to spread out of control in large megacities and in war zones, such as
Syria and Iraq. CNN and Reuters

****
**** Liberia and Sierra Leone introduce School by Radio
****

Schools in Liberia and Sierra Leone remain closed with no announced
date for reopening. The purpose of closing the schools is to inhibit
the spread of Ebola among schoolchildren, but closing the schools
doesn't remove the danger, according to one community leader:

<QUOTE>"Children are always playing outside. They're touching
each other, they're hugging each other. Even if you say to them:
don't touch, they're playing football. You see them every day
doing such things, so it is about telling them and educating
them."<END QUOTE>

The solution in both countries is to provide educational courses by
radio. It's hoped that this will keep the kids indoors, and that
they'll be able to continue their education. All Africa and
SBS World News (Australia)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Apache AH-64,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Pakistan, India, Kashmir, Line of Control, LoC,
Spain, Ebola, France, Britain, Belgium, West Africa,
Guinea, Liberace, Cote d'Ivoire, Syria, Iraq

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 8-Oct-14 World View -- Kurds protest violently in cities across Turkey over ISIS attack on Kobani

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's Erdogan sets conditions for saving Kobani from ISIS
• Kurds protest violently in cities across Turkey over ISIS attack on Kobani
• Biden makes a third apology, this time to Saudi Arabia

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan sets conditions for saving Kobani from ISIS
****


Hundreds of thousands of refugees from Kobani have been pouring into Turkey (Getty)

As we've been reporting the last few days, the Syrian city of Kobani
appears to be close to being overrun by the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). The city is populated by Syrian
Kurds, and a successful attack by ISIS would result in a massacre and
tens or hundreds of thousands of refugees. Now, on Tuesday, Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a statement that I consider to be
pretty remarkable:

<QUOTE>"I am telling the West – dropping bombs from the air
will not provide a solution. The terror will not be over
... unless there is cooperation for a ground operation.

Months have passed but no results have been achieved. Kobani is
about to fall. We asked for three things: one, for a no-fly zone
to be created; two, for a secure zone parallel to the region to be
declared; and for the moderate opposition in Syria and Iraq to be
trained and equipped."<END QUOTE>

I keep reading this statement over and over, and it appears to
me to be almost a kind of extortion: "Meet my demands, and I'll
save Kobani."

It's well known that Erdogan is very dissatisfied that the US-led air
strikes in Syria have been attacking only ISIS targets, and that he
would like the air strike to attack targets of the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad. So he's making the following demands:

• "one, for a no-fly zone to be created." This would be
  a no-fly zone directed at al-Assad's airforce.
• "two, for a secure zone parallel to the region to be
  declared." Erdogan would like to create a secure zone, protected
  by Turkish forces, to which Syrian refugees could flee. Currently,
  millions of Syrian refugees have fled to Turkey. There have
  been 200,000 refugees from Kobani alone, mostly in the last couple
  of weeks.
• "and for the moderate opposition in Syria and Iraq to be trained
  and equipped." These "moderate" fighters would fight al-Assad's
  army.

Erdogan has said that ground troops will be required to save Kobani,
and that Turkey would be willing to join in a coalition ground troop
force Western governments.

However, whether Erdogan likes it or not, Turkey is under tremendous
international pressure to save Kobani. On Tuesday, prime minister
Ahmet Davutoglu expressed his government's willingness to join with a
Western coalition to use ground troops in Syria to fight ISIS and the
al-Assad regime.

According to a Turkish analyst, Turkey might be dragged into
a quagmire:

<QUOTE>"If Turkey engages in a ground assault against the
Assad regime in Syria, then it might be dragged into a quagmire. I
want to draw attention to the fault lines based on ethnic and
sectarian divisions. We have divisions similar to those Middle
Eastern countries which have been recently dragged into civil
wars. The most appropriate option is for Turkey to join the air
campaign against ISIS."<END QUOTE>

Hurriyet (Istanbul) and AP and Today's Zaman (Ankara)

****
**** Kurds protest violently in cities across Turkey over ISIS attack on Kobani
****

Twelve people were killed in clashes with police, as Kurdish
protesters in cities across Turkey took to the streets in violent
riots to demand that Turkey protect the Kurds in Kobani who are under
attack by ISIS. Curfews have been declared in five provinces. The
protests were called for by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the
biggest Kurdish party in Turkey. PKK is considered to be a terrorist
organization by Turkey and by Western countries. In a 30-year civil
war between the PKK and Turkey, some 30,000 people were killed. Now
the PKK is accusing Turkey of siding with ISIS, in order to
exterminate the Kurds in Kobani.

For its part, Turkey sees helping the Kurds in Kobani as being the
same as helping the PKK. Turkey sees ISIS as less of a threat than
the al-Assad regime and the Kurds, and fears that the Kobani crisis
will revive the civil war. BBC and
Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Biden makes a third apology, this time to Saudi Arabia
****

As we've reported,
U.S. Vice
President Joe Biden had to apologize on Saturday to Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan for saying in a speech on Thursday that Turkey,
Saudi Arabia and the UAE had funded and armed the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and contributed to its rise.
Biden was trying to pin the blame on Mideast states in order to defuse
the scathing criticism from the Obama administration's former defense
secretary, Leon Panetta, whose new book blames administration policy
for the rise of the ISIS. On Sunday, Biden apologized to the Foreign
Affairs minister for United Arab Emirates (UAE). Now, on Tuesday,
Biden call the Foreign Affairs minister of Saudi Arabia to apologize
for the same remarks. CBS News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Kobani, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Leon Panetta, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Joe Biden,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 9-Oct-14 World View -- Kurdish riots continue as Turkey deals with the Kobani conundrum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kurdish riots continue as Turkey deals with the Kobani conundrum
• Why do so many Chinese expect war?

****
**** Kurdish riots continue as Turkey deals with the Kobani conundrum
****


Turkish army tanks have been lined up on the Syrian border across from Kobani for a week (Hurriyet)

Kurds in cities across Turkey continue to express fury that Turkey is
not intervening to save the Kurds living in Kobani, Syria, on the
border with Turkey, from the approaching forces of the Islamic State /
of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). It's possible that hundreds
of thousands of Kurds are about to be slaughtered by ISIS, but
Turkey's military has a row of tanks along the border, watching the
increasingly intense battles and explosions as if they were in a movie
theatre. Turkey won't even permit Kurds on the Turkish side of
the border to cross over into Kobani to join the fight against
ISIS.

Turkey is playing a very hard line. The U.S. and Nato really want
Turkey to save Kobani, and are pouring on the pressure. But Turkey
will not do so unless an objective of the war is that America's
warplanes also start striking targets belonging to Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. The U.S. and Nato do not want to get into a war with
al-Assad, and say that ISIS is the most important threat.

With regard to ISIS versus the Kurds, Turkey's conundrum is that it
wants both sides to lose. There a millions of innocent Kurds in
Kobani, but it's also the home of fighters from the separatist
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), with whom the Turks fought a 30 year
civil war. A few days ago, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
said, "What ISIS is to us, the PKK is the same," a remark that
infuriated the Kurds still further. In fact, many Kurds
say that Turkey is on the side of ISIS and is funding and
supporting it, because Turkey wants the Kurds exterminated.

The fall of Kobani appears to be close. American air strikes are
slowing ISIS down, but they will not prevent an ISIS victory. An ISIS
victory would mean many things to the Kurds -- hundreds of thousands
more deaths, hundreds of thousands more refugees pouring into Turkey,
and the loss of a city that many Kurds consider to be their capital.
It will seen as a major American failure of the airstrike strategy.
And it may trigger a revival of the civil war between the Turks and
Kurds in Turkey. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and AP and Guardian (London)

****
**** Why do so many Chinese expect war?
****

I like to read and sometimes refer to the articles by the Lowy
Institute for International Policy because it's in Australia, where
they have a much more focused understanding of the issues in southeast
Asia. They've done several articles on the threat from China, and the
question of Australia's role in a possible war between the U.S. and
China.

According to one article, referring to a Beijing professor of
classical music:

<QUOTE>"His students don't seem like fenqing ('angry
youth'). They are in a musical conservatory, after all, not a
military academy. Many have overseas connections. But they are
also ambitious, emotional, fiercely nationalist and for them war –
any war – would be a gratifying affirmation of their country's
ascendance. Like the 2008 Olympic Games but with real explosions,
not fireworks. These kids lap up PLA propaganda films like Silent
Contest even as they dream of Juilliard. My professor friend
worries they just haven't thought things through, that their
various aspirations are totally misaligned."<END QUOTE>

This emotional, fierce nationalism in China is something I've been
writing about for years. Fierce nationalism is most common in
countries in generational Crisis eras, and so we see increased
nationalism in America and in European countries. The survivors of
World War II were all too aware of the dangers of fierce nationalism,
and the many roles it played, including the rise of the Nazis, in
bringing about the worst of the war. So now those survivors are gone,
and fierce nationalism is the cool thing today, especially in China.

According to Lowy, they want wealth, power and respect for their
country. It's relevant to Thucydides' explanation of the epochal
Peloponnesian War: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this
inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable." Historical analysis
indicates that there's a 75% chance of war as China replaces America
in the global pecking order.

Lowy finds the "strange revival of nationalism" to be a paradox of our
age. War worship should totally contradict materialist aspirations,
yet the two often go together. Perhaps some new citizens want the
goodies of Western life without the full package of liberal rights and
responsibilities.

As I've been saying for ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Clash of Civilizations war is coming with 100% certainty, with the
two sides led by China and America. Lowy says, with understatement,
"Such a conflict would be protracted. All agree it would be a long,
costly war of exhaustion for all concerned." Actually, it would be a
full-scale generational crisis war. Every nuclear weapon and missile
will be used before it's over. Once the missiles run out, there will
be huge armies fighting all over the world, fighting not only each
other, but also famine, Ebola, Swine Flu, and Bird Flu. As much as
half the world's population could be wiped out, leaving the other half
to rebuild the world again. Lowy Institute and Lowy Institute (Feb 2014)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Kurds, Kobani,
Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
China, Lowy Institute for International Policy, Australia,
Thucydides, Athens, Sparta

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

As I've been saying for ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Clash of Civilizations war is coming with 100% certainty, with the
two sides led by China and America. Lowy says, with understatement,
"Such a conflict would be protracted. All agree it would be a long,
costly war of exhaustion for all concerned." Actually, it would be a
full-scale generational crisis war. Every nuclear weapon and missile
will be used before it's over. Once the missiles run out, there will
be huge armies fighting all over the world, fighting not only each
other, but also famine, Ebola, Swine Flu, and Bird Flu. As much as
half the world's population could be wiped out, leaving the other half
to rebuild the world again. Lowy Institute and Lowy Institute (Feb 2014)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Kurds, Kobani,
Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
China, Lowy Institute for International Policy, Australia,
Thucydides, Athens, Sparta

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

The missiles may not actually ever run out. The one thing that could dampen it though, is the US, UK and France do not seem to understand how important it is to have secret production facilities deep underground. It will be difficult although not impossible to construct such facilities after war breaks out. Advantage goes to SCO countries here. SCO countries are already rife with secret underground nuclear weapon factories. The other advantage SCO countries have is they are not using fixed silos. Their "land based" part of the triad is all on TELs. I used quotes because any "land based" TEL, once driven into the cargo bay of a transport plane, can be moved anywhere in the world. So this is another area where the West is currently way behind.

People who are already accepting of the 4T think about these things.

There are no secret production facilities, at least in china. We know this because china's fissile material stockpile has not been growing in size.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

It will be difficult although not impossible to construct such facilities after war breaks out. Advantage goes to SCO countries here.

This was definitely not the case during WW1 and WW2. Almost all major belligerents in both wars constructed their important war-fighting infrastructure after actual fighting had begun. Earlier the Civil War basically created our industrial Machine.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

This was definitely not the case during WW1 and WW2. Almost all major belligerents in both wars constructed their important war-fighting infrastructure after actual fighting had begun. Earlier the Civil War basically created our industrial Machine.

But it's a lot tougher to do when there are multiple incoming assaults of thermonuclear munitions.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

There are no secret production facilities, at least in china. We know this because china's fissile material stockpile has not been growing in size.

However Russia appears to be a different story and of course there is Iran. While some sourcsd indicate no growth in fissile stockpile in the PRC, substantial underground projects are suspected to be getting built ongoing.

*** 10-Oct-14 World View -- Turkey and America play a game of 'chicken' over ISIS and Kobani

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and America play a game of 'chicken' over ISIS and Kobani
• Russia makes farcical demand for Security Council resolution on Kobani
• Iran blames Pakistan for terrorist attacks
• The continuing realignment of the Mideast

****
**** Turkey and America play a game of 'chicken' over ISIS and Kobani
****


Aftermath of US air strike on Kobani on Wednesday (Reuters)

A real geopolitical drama is in progress, as the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) attack on the Syrian city of
Kobani, on the border with Turkey, may be close to victory. An ISIS
victory would have potentially severe consequences for both America
and Turkey. The battle of Kobani is being watched very closely around
the Mideast, and an ISIS victory would expose the American airstrike
strategy as a failure that exposed hundreds of thousands of civilian
Kurds to slaughter. An ISIS victory would also create hundreds of
thousands of new refugees adding to the hundreds of thousands who
crossed the border into Turkey in the last three weeks. An ISIS
victory might also trigger a renewal of Turkey's civil war versus the
the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

So Turkey and America are playing a grand game of "chicken." In the
classic American 1950s game, two teenagers get into cars at opposite
ends of a long street, and drive towards each other. The first
teenager to turn aside to avoid a collision is a "chicken," and the
other teenager wins. If neither teenager turns aside, then there's a
collision, resulting in deaths and/or injuries, but both sides have
"won" because neither of them is a chicken.

In the current game of chicken over ISIS and Kobani, both America and
Turkey are making demands of the other side to save Kobani from ISIS.
If either side gives in and does something to save Kobani, then that
side will be "chicken," and the other side will have won. If neither
side does anything, and Kobani falls, possibly leading to hundreds of
thousands of deaths and refugees, then both America and Turkey will
have "won."

It would be funny if the consequences weren't so serious. America
tells Turkey to send ground troops to save Kobani. Turkey says that
they won't, unless America also sends in ground troops.

As I understand Turkey's statements in the last few days, Turkey might
be willing to send in ground troops alone, provided that America
agrees to set up a no-fly zone in Syria, restricting Syria's air
force.

Akin Unver, assistant professor of international relations at Kadir
Has University in Istanbul, says that there are fundamental
differences between Turkey's and America's strategies. In an
interview on Al-Jazeera (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"I think there's a fundamental difference in
Washington's and Ankara's view on what ISIS is, and how best to
counter ISIS. ...

For Washington, basically ISIS may be an unfortunate result of an
Iraq war, but it has to be combatted.

For Ankara, ISIS is a product of Assad and Maliki's policies for a
very long time, that Ankara was actually warning the world about.
Ankara was basically asking for a Western coalition, a Western
military coalition against Assad, as well as some diplomatic push
for Maliki, so that radicalization in the form of ISIS wouldn't
happen.

But when you think from the perspective of Ankara, all of these
warnings are unheeded, so basically right now Ankara doesn't think
that Washington sees the picture very clearly. So that's the bsic
divergence. ...

But the logic, rationale and narrative is that we told Washington
that ISIS or a similar organization would happen, because
basically if you want to deal with ISIS, you first have to get rid
of the fundamental causes that produce that kind of
radicalization, and the number one culprit that Ankara can find is
Assad. Maybe not remove Assad, but basically create a secure
zone, or cordon sanitaire in northern Syria, so that
Assad's forces will never be able to move in there. That's the
only way that Ankara thinks they can resolve this
issue."<END QUOTE>

I actually agree with this. I've been saying for almost two years
that the actions of Syria's genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad and his
slaughter and displacement of millions of innocent Sunni women and
children would draw jihadists from all over the world, and that's
exactly what's happened, resulting in the creation of ISIS. Turkey
warned exactly the same thing, but it was ignored.

I've also pointed out for two years that the fault also lies with
Russia, which has been supply al-Assad with unlimited amounts of heavy
weapons to use in his campaign of extermination against Sunnis, making
Russia's president Vladimir Putin a war criminal.

Syria is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s),
an era in which civil wars are impossible, or fizzle quickly if they
start. The Syrian civil war began in 2011, and fizzled within a year,
turning into a proxy war between Russia and jihadist forces that
became ISIS.

In an article by Akin Unver (quoted above), Unver says that Turkey is
alarmed by Russia's support of al-Assad for another reason:

<QUOTE>"In today's terms, Russia's annexation of Crimea is
sufficiently alarming for Ankara, with the added dimension of
Russian naval supremacy in the Black Sea. Turkey is now virtually
defenseless there and has lost its deterrence or negotiation
leverages against Moscow in a number of issues. The most immediate
is the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) designations in the Black
Sea, critical due to Shell, Exxon, and Chevron exploration
operations on Turkey's northern coast.

If the US wants to recruit Turkey's support against ISIL, not only
should it address the full spectrum of the causes that created
ISIL in the first place, but also make longer-term commitments
against a Russian backlash against Turkey in the Black Sea. Only
by approaching Ukraine and ISIL as complementing grand strategy
issues can Washington find the ally it seeks in Ankara, without
any need to counterproductively move any bases out of Turkey or
clumsily write-off Ankara's cooperation."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's issue with Russia in the Black Sea is totally ignored in
almost all media discussions of Turkey's strategy in Syria. World War
I and the Crimean War were the last two generational crisis wars of
both Russia and Turkey, and they were on opposite sides in both wars.
Washington Post and Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Al-Jazeera (Doha) and The National (UAE)

****
**** Russia makes farcical demand for Security Council resolution on Kobani
****

Turkey is saying that the anti-ISIS coalition will get Turkey's
military support only if the coalition will target the Bashar al-Assad
regime as well. Specifically, Turkey is demanding:

• Establish buffer zones inside Syria, both to protect its own
  borders and to provide areas where refugees could gather safely. But
  creating such zones would represent a significant military operation
  requiring the seizure of defendable terrain.
• Establish a
  no-fly zone to protect Turkey against Syria's Air Force.

Russia's Foreign Ministry is making a farcical demand to submit the
discussion on buffer zones in Syria to a vote in the United Nations
Security Council (so that they can veto it). According to spokesman
Alexander Lukashevich: "It is up to the UN Security Council to make
decisions on these (buffer) zones. You remember the way it was in
Iraq, Libya, and what it resulted in."

Russia has been using the UN Security County to humiliate the United
States since 2010, by lying repeatedly and then vetoing any attempt to
stop the genocide in Syria. Lukashevich mentioned Iraq and Libya, but
didn't bother to mention Ukraine, where Russian soldiers invaded
Crimea and annexed it to Russia, and then Russian soldiers invaded
east Ukraine, leaving it unstable mess, after shooting down an
airliner. And Russia did all this without getting approval from the
UN Security Council.

I don't know what decision the Obama administration will make in
Syria, but I hope that it will just take the decision, without a
farcical vote in the UN Security Council. BBC and Itar-Tass (Moscow)

****
**** Iran blames Pakistan for terrorist attacks
****

A car bomb attack on a police station in an Iran city on the border
with Pakistan on Thursday morning killed a police officer, injuring
others. The day before, three other police officers were killed in a
separate terrorist attack. The Pakistan-based terror group
Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice) has reportedly claimed responsibility
for the terrorist attacks.

Iran is blaming Pakistan's government for the attacks. In an official
statement by former IRGC commander MP Mohammad Esmail Kowsari:

<QUOTE>"We wish that these acts of terror in the country,
especially in border towns would end for good, but the main issue
is that the Pakistani government does not secure its borders.

The Pakistani government has practically no control over the
border areas and if they really cannot control it they better tell
us so that we ourselves could take action."<END QUOTE>

This may be a veiled threat to send Iranian forces into Pakistan to
pursue Jaish-ul-Adl, just as American forces entered Pakistan to
capture Osama bin Laden. Pakistan Today and Tasnim News (Iran) and AEI Iran Tracker

****
**** The continuing realignment of the Mideast
****

During the last six weeks, I've written several articles on the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war.
Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in
the 1960s, and has a similar "generation gap," separating the
survivors the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war from the
younger generations that have grown up afterwards. This has resulted
in schizophrenic Iranian policies, balancing the hardline attitudes of
the Supreme Leader and other geezers who survived the Islamic
Revolution versus the people in the younger generations, who like the
West and don't hate Israel.

What decision will the American administration make with regard to
Kobani? In particular, with America challenge al-Assad militarily?

It's impossible to predict individual political decisions, but it is
possible to describe the long-term trends. And as I've been saying
for almost ten years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis,
India, Russia and Iran will be our allies in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslims. Several long-time readers have written to me recently to say
that they didn't believe these predictions ten years ago, but are now
astonished to see them coming true.

So let's focus now on Kobani and Syria. The long-term trends indicate
that America will hold its nose and side with Russia, Iran and
al-Assad. In the immediate context, this probably means that America
will NOT support Turkey's demands for a buffer area or no-fly zone in
Syria.

However, I can find no long-term trend that provides a way to forecast
what will happen to the people of Kobani. What America or Turkey will
do is a purely political chaotic (in the sense of Chaos theory)
decision, which can't be predicted. The Kurds in Kobani claim that
they're holding off the ISIS fighters, and hope to win. Or maybe
either Turkey or America will find a way to provide ground troops. Or
maybe Kobani will fall, with all the repercussions outlined above.
Right now, there is no way to predict.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Kurds, Kobani,
Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, game of chicken,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Akin Unver, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Bashar al-Assad, Black Sea,
Alexander Lukashevich, Ukraine, Crimea,
Iran, Pakistan, Jaish-ul-Adl, Army of Justice,
Mohammad Esmail Kowsari, China, Pakistan, India

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 11-Oct-14 World View -- Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The daily needs of a single Ebola patient
• U.N. envoy makes highly emotional appeal to Turkey to save Kobani
• Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers

****
**** The daily needs of a single Ebola patient
****


Health care workers in Liberia carry the body of an Ebola victim (EPA)

According to televised report appearing on al-Jazeera, caring for an
Ebola patient uses up the following resources every day:

• 52.8 gallons of water
• 20 gallons of bleach
• 8 pairs of gloves
• 3 body suits

That doesn't include any medications.

It's estimated that there are currently at least 8,000 people sick
with Ebola in West Africa. That number is expected to be well into
the tens of thousands by the end of the year, and then to double every
three weeks after that. Washington Post

****
**** U.N. envoy makes highly emotional appeal to Turkey to save Kobani
****

Steffan de Mistura, the United Nations envoy to Syria, made a highly
emotional appeal to Turkey on Friday to aid the Kurds in the Syrian
border city of Kobani, under attack by the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). Turkey is demanding that the U.S. change
its strategy in Syria to attack the Bashar al-Assad regime, as well as
ISIS fighters. ( "10-Oct-14 World View -- Turkey and America play a game of 'chicken' over ISIS and Kobani"
)

De Mistura invoked the memory of the 1995 massacre at Srebrenica,
which is the subject of trials in the Hague to convict Serb leaders of
war crimes. According to de Mistura:

<QUOTE>"You remember Srebrenica? We do. We never forgot. And
probably we never forgave ourselves for that.

If Kobani falls, there will be close to 400 kilometers of the
Turkish border basically under control of ISIL out of 900. And
what would be next? Other villages? Even Aleppo?

There are the images that we don’t want to see, we cannot see and
I hope you will not be seeing of people beheaded, of the defenders
and civilians."<END QUOTE>

De Mistura did not ask Turkey to send its own troops to defend Kobani.
Instead, de Mistura asked Turkey to permit Kurdish fighters in Turkey
to cross the border into Syria so that they can join the fight against
ISIS. However, Turkey has previously indicated that no such request
will be granted, because Turkey's Kurdish fighters would be members of
the separatist terror group Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with whom
Turkey fought a decades long civil war. McClatchy

****
**** Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers
****

The United Nations Security Council is threatening the government of
Central African Republic (CAR) with sanctions, because a Pakistani
peacekeeper was killed on Thursday after an attack by "unknown
perpetrators" in Bangui, CAR's capital city. According to a statement
by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, "The secretary-general condemns
in the strongest possible terms the killing and wounding of UN
peacekeepers. Such acts against those who are working towards peace
and security in the Central African Republic are entirely
unacceptable. The perpetrators of the violence, which has also
resulted in a number of civilians killed since the clashes in the
capital began on 7 October, must also be brought to justice."

Several hours after Ban's denunciation on Friday, an armed group fired
on U.N. peacekeepers, wounding six.

These attacks come amid a sudden increase in mob violence in Bangui,
breaking a July 23 ceasefire agreement. The ceasefire was partially
observed in Bangui, but CAR is a country the size of France, and
fighting has continued in villages to the north and west.

This week, Bangui has seen its most significant violence in months,
resulting in "many casualties." A Muslim man was lynched, decapitated
and his body torched by anti-Balaka Christian fighters on Tuesday, and
a Muslim Seleka fighters killed a taxi driver in revenge, sparking the
latest violence. Gunfire and explosions rang out in Bangui on
Thursday. In all, 25 people, excluding peacekeepers, have been
wounded since the new round of fighting began.

CAR is in a generational crisis war, which will not end until it runs
its course and reaches a climax.

CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era. The early
stages of the new generational crisis war began last year when Muslim
Seleka militias began committing atrocities. French Foreign Legion
troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias, but then the Christian
anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing
atrocities this year, for revenge.

Recent reports indicate that both sides are regrouping for new
fighting. The U.N. peacekeepers may be able to partially delay some
of the fighting, but there won't be peace in CAR until the war has run
its course. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Liberia,
Steffan de Mistura, United Nations, Turkey, Syria, Kobani,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Central African Republic, Ban Ki-moon, Seleka, anti-Balaka,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 12-Oct-14 World View -- Disappearance of North Korea's Kim Jong-un looks more and more serious

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Disappearance of North Korea's Kim Jong-un looks more and more serious
• Israel's government concerned about legal threats after Gaza war
• Concerns grow that terrorists might use Ebola as biological weapon

****
**** Disappearance of North Korea's Kim Jong-un looks more and more serious
****


Kim Jong-un limping on July 8

North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, has not been seen in public
since September 3. On July 8 he was shown walking with a limp, and
he's missed several major events since September 3. He's gained a
great deal of weight since becoming dictator after his father's death
in December 2011 and that may contribute to pain in his leg. North
Korean officials have been excusing his absences by saying that he was
relaxing and recovering from his "discomfort."

However, Kim's disappearance has begun to look a lot more serious,
since he made no appearance on Friday at the 69th anniversary
of the founding of the governing Worker's Party. This is
one of the major political events of the year and he did not
even make a symbolic appearance. When his father, Kim
Jong-il, failed to attend the same event in 2008, it
was following a stroke.

Rumors abound. One rumor is that he's so visibly ill, that it
couldn't be hidden even in a symbolic appearance. Another rumor is
that there's a coup in progress, and he's being held prisoner.
Another rumor is that he's dead, and that his 27 year old sister is
taking over (though one commentator said that it's unlikely that a 70
year old army general would be willing to take orders from a 27 year
old girl).

However, other government sources say that "Kim Jong-un is in total
control," although he hurt his leg taking part in a military drill,
and is convalescing. Korea Herald (Seoul) and Japan Times

****
**** Israel's government concerned about legal threats after Gaza war
****

For the last 60 years, Israel has defeated its enemies on the
battlefields, but over the last two decades, Israel has consistently
lost the public opinion battle. Today, almost no European political
leader openly supports Israel, and calls for anti-Israeli boycotts and
sanctions are increasingly heard. Even more dangerous to Israel is
the increasing willingness of international courts to consider
launching legal proceedings for alleged war crimes. Israel
has done well in these legal proceedings so far, but one major
legal loss could have a "domino effect," the eventual scope
of which cannot even be guessed.

Israel's military and legal authorities are keenly aware that when a
war ends, there will be international investigations of alleged
wrongdoings. For these reasons, military lawyers work with military
commanders during operations. In the recent Gaza war, Hamas not
violated every international law it could, it also did everything
possible to try to force Israel to violate international laws -- by
storing weapons under and launching attacks from civilian homes,
mosques, schools and hospitals. Hamas even publicly threatened its
own population not to vacate areas of impending attacks, in order to
force Israel to choose between conducting military operations in a
civilian-rich environment (thus probably increasing civilian
casualties) and foregoing the attacks entirely. Israel Defense News

****
**** Concerns grow that terrorists might use Ebola as biological weapon
****

Experts are warning that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL) or another terror group might decide to use Ebola as a
biological weapon. It would be fairly easy. A terrorist could visit
West Africa and become infected, or just leave with some infected
bodily fluids. Then, before symptoms start to show, the terrorist
could travel back to a target country, and then interact with as many
people as possible to infect them.

However, a number of experts are skeptical that this approach will be
used. An infected terrorist might accidentally infect others in his
group or his family, for example. According to one expert: "For a
suicide attack, strapping sticks of dynamite to your chest is far more
effective." Daily Mail and Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il,
Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Ebola,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 13-Oct-14 World View -- Al-Qaeda and ISIS struggle for global jihadi terrorist leadership

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Qaeda and ISIS struggle for global jihadi terrorist leadership
• Car bomb explodes in Mogadishu Somalia as China's embassy reopens
• Large Mideast stock market bubbles appear to be crashing

****
**** Al-Qaeda and ISIS struggle for global jihadi terrorist leadership
****


ISIS appears to be outshining the ancient leadership at al-Qaeda (Al-Arabiya)

With the dramatic rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL) in the past year, a generational competition is growing
between ISIS, led by the youthful Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and
headquartered in Syria, versus al-Qaeda, led by Ayman al-Zawahiri and
other old geezers on the Afghanistan - Pakistan border:

• Yemen: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is
  headquartered in Yemen, and is the principal al-Qaeda affiliate still
  loyal to core al-Qaeda. AQAP is the key interlocutor between core
  al-Qaeda on the one hand and al-Shabaab in Somalia, Al-Qaeda in the
  Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in North Africa, and Jabhat al-Nusra (Islamic
  Front) in Syria on the other hand. If AQAP were to switch sides, then
  those groups with go along, then there would be nothing left of
  al-Qaeda except few veteran envoys spread around the globe.
  
• North Africa: Fighters from Tunisia and Libya were key
  supporters of Al-Qaeda in Iraq during the Iraq war in the 2003-2008
  time frame, and many young jihadists in those countries are pledging
  allegiance to ISIS now. However, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
  (AQIM) remains loyal to al-Qaeda, and has encouraged AQAP-ISIS
  unity.
  
• Levant & Arabian Peninsula: This region remains the
  battleground for jihadi hearts and minds. ISIS captures the majority
  of foreign fighters into Syria but Jabhat al-Nusra remains an
  important force in the fight against Syria's president Bashar
  al-Assad. For jihadists in the region, the main decision has now
  become: "Is it more important to fight al-Assad, or to fight the
  U.S.-led coalition?" Donor money flows from wealthy Saudis has been
  the traditional lifeline of al-Qaeda, but it's likely they're now
  eclipsed by money flows to ISIS.
  
• South Asia: Al-Qaeda has been protected for years by the
  Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but ISIS is eroding that
  support.
  
• Southeast Asia: Jihadis in Indonesia, Malaysia and the
  Philippines had been loosely tied to al-Qaeda, but they've been
  dormant for years. But now ISIS has inspired new high levels of
  violence. Southeast Asia is decidedly pro-ISIS.
  
• North America, Europe, Australia: There have been small
  numbers of recruits to al-Qaeda over the last decade, but now they're
  flowing in large numbers to Syria to join ISIS or, in some cases,
  Jabhat al-Nusra.

The trend appears to be that ISIS is overtaking al-Qaeda, but whether
that will continue is not certain. ISIS currently has a base of power
only in Syria and Iraq, and not elsewhere. Just to take one possible
scenario, the death of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi could change everything,
and cause ISIS and al-Qaeda to merge. Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and Al Arabiya (June 2014)

****
**** Car bomb explodes in Mogadishu Somalia as China's embassy reopens
****

China's embassy in Somalia officially reopened Sunday in Somalia's
capital city Mogadishu, on the same day that a car bomb exploded
outside a popular Mogadishu cafe, killing 11 people. The bomb was
believed to have been detonated by remote control, and the terrorist
group al-Shabaab are believed to be the perpetrators.

On Saturday, Somalia's president Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud said
that al-Shabaab terrorism was coming to an end, and that his
government will defeat the group "as a military force" before
the end of the year. He said that its fighters are on the
run from government forces and African Union forces.

Mohamoud is encouraging China to invest further in Somalia:

<QUOTE>"China and Somalia had a very long relationship and a
very historical and ancient one. And in modern times Somalia and
China are friendly countries.

Today Somalia is a place that can be invested. There is a lot of
opportunities. This is a very rich country in terms of maritime
resources, in terms of agricultural resources, in terms of
livestock, and in terms of very vibrant people who are
entrepreneurs and business-minded.

We will give priority to those who pioneer to invest now in
Somalia than those who come after five years from now. Those first
comers are the real partners for us."<END QUOTE>

Xinhua/Daily Times (Pakistan) and RBC Raxanreeb (Somalia) and CTV (Canada)

****
**** Large Mideast stock market bubbles appear to be crashing
****

Shares in the Dubai (United Arab Emirates or UAE) stock market plunged
6.5% on Sunday, while Saudi Arabia's shares also fell by 6.5%.
Qatar's stock index fell 3%. Some Mideast stock markets have been in
enormous bubbles this year, with Dubai up 47% year-to-date and Egypt
up 41%, so it was only a matter of time before these bubbles burst.
The only question was the timing and the triggering event.
U.S. stocks had a "brutal" selloff on Friday of 1.2%. As of this
writing at early morning Asian time, stocks in Japan, Australia and
South Korea have fall 0.5-0.8% in early morning trading.

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and selloff. It has to happen sooner or later.

Americans today are very prone to panic, as shown by the widespread
near-panic over the two cases of Ebola in Texas. This kind of panic
is typical of moods during a generational Crisis era, and it's this
mood that leads to new generational financial crises and generational
crisis wars. This may or may not be the time that the stock market
continues to fall. Bloomberg and Reuters and Zero Hedge

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Al-Qaeda, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Tunisia, Libya,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Yemen, Somalia,
China, Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, African Union,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Dubai, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
Japan, Australia

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 14-Oct-14 World View -- Australia's PM Tony Abbott promises to 'shirt-front' Vladimir Putin when they meet

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia's PM Tony Abbott promises to 'shirt-front' Vladimir Putin when they meet
• WHO: Ebola threatens the 'very survival' of countries

****
**** Australia's PM Tony Abbott promises to 'shirt-front' Vladimir Putin when they meet
****


Australia's prime minister Tony Abbott

Australia's prime minister Tony Abbott has been one of the world's
most vocal critics for Russia's president Vladimir Putin over the
downing of an airliner by Russians in East Ukraine using a missile
system supplied by Russia. Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot
down in July, killing all 298 passengers and crew, 28 of whom were
Australians. Abbott and Putin are expected to meet at the upcoming
G20 meeting next month.

Abbott said the following on Monday:

<QUOTE>"Look, I'm going to shirt-front Mr Putin - you bet I
am. I'm going to be saying to Mr Putin, Australians were murdered
and they were murdered by Russian-backed rebels using Russian
supplied equipment."<END QUOTE>

In Australian rules football, a "shirt-front" is a front-on charge
designed to knock an opponent to the ground. Reuters and Sydney Morning Herald

****
**** WHO: Ebola threatens the 'very survival' of countries
****

Margaret Chan, head of the World Health Organization (WHO), referred
to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea and said:

<QUOTE>"I have never seen a health event threaten the very
survival of societies and governments in already very poor
countries. I have never seen an infectious disease contribute so
strongly to potential state failure."<END QUOTE>

As I've written several times in the past ( "18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?"
), Ebola is apparently going to continue to spread
exponentially and run its course in Liberia. Within 6-9 months,
probably 90% of the population will have been infected, and 50-70% of
those people will not survive. So if those figures are true, and I
believe they are, then Liberia will lose more than half its population
by next summer. This will be a geopolitical crisis, and may trigger a
war.

Will the same thing happen in the United States? No. Right now,
every hospital and health care facility in the country is preparing
for the say that someone walks in with symptoms of Ebola. There will
certainly be cases -- perhaps dozens or even hundreds of cases. But
America, like much of the rest of the world, is rapidly preparing and
will be prepared.

However, as we've said repeatedly, Ebola will spread out of control to
war zones, including Central African Republic, Darfur, South Sudan,
Syria and Iraq. Adjacent countries will also be at risk, and that
could mean that larger regions of Africa and the Mideast may be
under attack from Ebola. Large megacities around the world are also
at risk. However, note that the Hajj has ended, without any known
cases of Ebola, as many people feared.

It appears that world will be a very different place a year from now.
We can hope that, by then, some drug treatments will have started to
become available, so that the spread can level off. VOA and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Tony Abbott, Russia,
Vladimir Putin, Malaysian Airlines flight MH17,
World Health Organization, WHO, Margaret Chan,
Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic,
Darfur, South Sudan, Syria, Iraq

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 15-Oct-14 World View -- NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs
• Turkey-France meeting signals new confusion in Turkey's Syria policy
• WHO: Within two months, there may be 10,000 new Ebola cases per week

****
**** NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs
****


Saddam Hussein

In a seemingly bizarre twist to the history of America's 2003 ground
invasion of Iraq, which was widely supported at the time, but widely
despised later when weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) were not found,
an extensive report by the New York Times reveals that Saddam Hussein
did, in fact, have large quantities of WMDs, many left over from the
past.

The irony, of course, is that the NY Times led the loony left to
oppose the Iraq war, and was openly aiding and abetting the enemy, in
a manner that I considered to be treasonous. (See, for example, "NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman shows ignorance and evasiveness about al-Qaeda in Iraq"
from
2007.)

The NY Times constantly printed misinformation designed to harm the
United States and the Bush Administration. They predicted that
President Bush's "surge" would fail, and events proved that they were
historically wrong.

As I wrote several months ago ( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq"
), if the Bush administration
had not ordered the ground invasion, then Iran would have continued to
believe that Saddam had WMDs, and would have aggressively begun its
own WMD program.

Now the NY Times tells us that Saddam had WMDs after all, which means
that the Iraq ground invasion was apparently fully justified.

The new concern is that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL) may also find, or have already found, other caches of
WMDs for their own use. NY Times

****
**** Turkey-France meeting signals new confusion in Turkey's Syria policy
****

On Sunday, the U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice said that
Turkey had "made a commitment that they will in the first instance
allow the US and its partners to use Turkish bases and territory,"
meaning that U.S. warplanes on bombing runs into Syria could take off
from and return to Turkey's Incirlik. On Monday, Turkish officials
said that Rice was mistaken, and that no such agreement had been
reached.

This is just the next in the unending series of blunders and missteps
by the foreign policy team of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Susan
Rice, who might ironically be called "the gang that can't shoot
straight."

But in this case it also highlights the chaos in Turkey's own policy
towards Syria, as Kobani appears to be close to falling to the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), despite American-led
airstrikes.

Turkey president Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to meet with France's
president François Hollande, as soon as the parties can arrange a
suitable date, Hollande has expressed support for Erdogan's plan to
establish a no-fly zone in Syria, directed at the air force of the
Bashar al-Assad regime. Erdogan and Turkey have been internationally
isolated over it Syria stance. America and Western countries have
refused to support the no-fly zone because it would put the coalition
in conflict with al-Assad's forces, and the U.S. has said that
defeating ISIS is more important than defeating al-Assad. This is a
clear disagreement between Turkey and the U.S., and it may now be the
case that France is going to be on the side of Turkey.

Turkey may be opposed to the entire U.S. policy in Syria. Erdogan
doesn't like ISIS, but if they're willing to fight al-Assad, he'd like
to let them. Erdogan doesn't like the people who live in Kobani,
because they're Kurds, and Turkish Kurds, in the form of the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK) fought a 30-year insurgency in Turkey, though the
insurgency is currently supposedly in the midst of a "peace process."
In fact, Erdogan refers to both ISIS and the Kurds as being
terrorists. So, really, Erdogan doesn't really care if ISIS overruns
Kobani and massacres the Kurds or not.

Erdogan's statement of equivalence between ISIS and the PKK is being
criticized by his political opponents within Turkey. A pro-Kuridish
political opponent, Selahattin DemirtaS, is pointing out some chaotic
contradictions in Erdogan's policies:

<QUOTE>"If you think it [the PKK] is same as ISIS, why are
you seeking a settlement [peace process]? Why is the state holding
talks with the PKK? ISIS is no party to have negotiations
with. If PKK is like that, you should not have held talks with
it. How will you bring back people from the mountains with such an
attitude? ...

You [Erdogan] said that Syria was Turkey's issue, as well as Gaza,
Bosnia and Somali, and defended military action there; however,
with [Kurdish] Kobani, you said otherwise. If Kobani is not
Turkey's issue, then we [Kurds] are not living in Turkey. If this
is your stance when my brothers are threatened by a group of
rapists and barbarians [ISIS], then you are not our
government."<END QUOTE>

In fact, the "peace process" with the PKK may be over anyway. There
is growing fury among Kurds that Turkey is willing to permit a
massacre of Kurds in Kobani. Turkey's Kurdish population rioted last
week in cities across the country, and 35 people died in clashes with
police. And on Tuesday, Turkey's warplanes bombed PKK bases in
southeastern Turkey, on the Iraq border. These are Turkey's first
bombing raids since the "peace process" began two years ago, and
probably signal its demise.

It's possible that the fall of Kobani to ISIS will trigger widespread
Kurdish riots in Turkey, forcing Erdogan to fight either ISIS in Syria
or Kurds in Turkey. Cihan (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Today's Zaman (Ankara) and VOA

****
**** WHO: Within two months, there may be 10,000 new Ebola cases per week
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to issue warnings
to alert the world of the impending Ebola disaster. On Tuesday,
a WHO official warned that by mid-December, there could be
up to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week, up from 1,000 new cases
per week currently.

This is consistent with previous projections that the number of cases
has been growing exponentially, doubling every 2-3 weeks. The WHO
official didn't bother to project that 10,000 figure forward, by
pointing out that it will be 100,000 per week within a couple more
months, and continue to grow.

Who also estimated that the death rate was 70%, up from previous
estimates of 50% -- meaning that 70% of those who get infected are
dying. This could mean that 60-70% of Liberia's population will be
dead within a year or so, with the resulting global economic crises
and probable wars, as we described yesterday.
CBS News

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Thomas Friedman,
weapons of mass destruction, WMDs,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, France, François Hollande,
Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Selahattin DemirtaS,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Kobani, Susan Rice, Incirlik,
World Health Organization, WHO, Ebola, Liberia

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 15-Oct-14 World View -- NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs
• Turkey-France meeting signals new confusion in Turkey's Syria policy
• WHO: Within two months, there may be 10,000 new Ebola cases per week

****
**** NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs
****


Saddam Hussein

In a seemingly bizarre twist to the history of America's 2003 ground
invasion of Iraq, which was widely supported at the time, but widely
despised later when weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) were not found,
an extensive report by the New York Times reveals that Saddam Hussein
did, in fact, have large quantities of WMDs, many left over from the
past.

The irony, of course, is that the NY Times led the loony left to
oppose the Iraq war, and was openly aiding and abetting the enemy, in
a manner that I considered to be treasonous. (See, for example, "NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman shows ignorance and evasiveness about al-Qaeda in Iraq"
from
2007.)

The NY Times constantly printed misinformation designed to harm the
United States and the Bush Administration. They predicted that
President Bush's "surge" would fail, and events proved that they were
historically wrong.

As I wrote several months ago ( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq"
), if the Bush administration
had not ordered the ground invasion, then Iran would have continued to
believe that Saddam had WMDs, and would have aggressively begun its
own WMD program.

Now the NY Times tells us that Saddam had WMDs after all, which means
that the Iraq ground invasion was apparently fully justified.

The new concern is that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL) may also find, or have already found, other caches of
WMDs for their own use. NY Times

Not long after the US-led coalition completed the invasion stage in Iraq, the SF Chronicle (of all sources) published an article along with photographic evidence showing that key members of Baathist Iraq's intelligence community had gone to Russia to get trained by the SVR and GRU. It may even be possible to still find the article on Google (I'll check later). I find that fascinating. Another interesting tid bit was a conversation, that was quickly swept under the rug, about the Russians aiding and abetting mass movement of the WMD from Iraq into Eastern Syria. I suspect the reason for being swept under the rug was that we were in the midst of the gag worthy "I looked into his eyes" stage in the relationship with the Kremlin, and stuff like that was just way too hot to handle. Now looking back with the benefit of hindsight, and looking (as noted by Cynic Hero 86) at the potential role of SVR and GRU in aiding and abetting ISIS (whilst also aiding and abetting Assad et al ... go figure ... typical scissor strategy), the notion that SVR and GRU, along with Baathist operatives, moved the WMD into Syria, is quite believable to me.

*** 16-Oct-14 World View -- Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge
• Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed
• The price of oil plummets along with stocks

****
**** Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge
****


A trader watches the screen at his terminal on the floor of the NY Stock Exchange on Wednesday (Reuters)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly fell over 450 points
on Wednesday, before cutting losses and ending the day "only"
173 points down. Traders were influenced by a welter of
bad data -- a retail sales index and a manufacturing index
falling significantly more than economists had predicted.

European stocks fell to a ten month low, with index values falling
2-3% across the board. For the past few months, Europe has been
increasingly in a deflationary spiral, with the inflation rate now
below 0.1%.

Traders are also concerned that the Ebola crisis will harm
the global economy.

Possibly more significant are the wild swings that have characterized
the stock market during the last couple of weeks. Economist Robert
Shiller, appearing on CNBC last week on Friday, said that he was
concerned about the wild swings, and that they happened in 2008, 2007,
and 1929, just prior to the crash. So if, for example, stocks
gain 500 points tomorrow, then it would be cheered as good news,
but in fact it would just be a large swing upwards. The next
one might be a downward swing of 1000 points.

At the very least, the wild swings signal a time of danger.
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and selloff. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings index is
around 19, much higher than the historical average of 14, indicating a
huge stock market bubble. A crash has to happen sooner or later, and
it's possible that these wild swings are signaling that this is the
time. Reuters and Bloomberg and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed
****

Greece's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras sought to restore public calm
on Wednesday, as stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange plunged 6.25%.
Socks have fallen 23.24% since January.

Even more significant, the yields (interest rates) on Greece's
ten-year bonds spiked sharply upward to 7.73%. This means that
if Greece wants to borrow money on the open market, Greece
will have to pay 7.73% interest, which is not affordable.

Long-time readers will recall the drama of the various European
bailout events of Greece in the 2010-2012 time frame. See, for
example, "28-Nov-12 World View -- Europe's new charade in Greece's bailout announcement"
, in which Greece was given a new 44 billion euro bailout loan, and Samaras
said:

<QUOTE>"A very grey, a very dark period for Greece officially
ended yesterday and it has ended for good. We Greeks were made for
tough times, and when the going gets tough, it brings out the best
in us."<END QUOTE>

Promises like this were never going to be kept, as I said repeatedly,
and as pretty much everyone basically knew. Underneath the "tough
times" rhetoric was a Pollyannaish assumption that Europe and the
world would return to the "growth" of the mid-2000s decade credit and
real estate bubbles, when anyone could borrow money to do anything.
That was never going to happen again, but it was this fantastical
assumption that led to the rosy predictions that Greece's dark days
were over.

It was always just a matter of time before Greece's bailout would
fail, and it appears that the time is now. Greece is facing both an
economic crisis and a political crisis. The radical left-wing
political party Syriza is becoming increasingly popular in the polls,
with the result that the government may collapse in the next few
months, forcing new elections, bringing far left communist politics
back to the European political stage.

Syriza wants to renege on the bailout money that Greece owes to
Europe. This would push Greece's government into bankruptcy, and push
bond yields up well into double or even triple digits, making it
almost impossible for Greece to borrow money. Kathimerini (Athens) and AP and Business Insider

****
**** The price of oil plummets along with stocks
****

The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil
fell 5% on Wednesday to $81.84, well below the $100-120 range
of the past few years. Two reasons are being given for the
startling collapse in oil prices.

First, the supply of oil is surging. In the U.S., shale
oil production ("fracking") has been growing rapidly. Non-OPEC
countries have been exporting more oil. Canada has replaced
Saudi Arabia as the largest source of imported oil to the U.S.

Second, the demand for oil is falling. Sluggish economies around the
world mean less oil is needed, and even China's demand is softening.

Generational Dynamics predicts a global deflationary spiral, and the
falling price of oil is part of that. Countries like Russia, Iran and
Saudi Arabia, which depend on income from oil sales, will be suffering
economic woes that will translate into a general global slowdown.
CNBC and Fortune and Forbes

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Dow Jones Industrial Average,
Ebola, Robert Shiller, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio,
Greece, Antonis Samaras, Syriza, West Texas Intermediate,
Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 16-Oct-14 World View -- Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge
• Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed
• The price of oil plummets along with stocks

****
**** Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge
****


A trader watches the screen at his terminal on the floor of the NY Stock Exchange on Wednesday (Reuters)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly fell over 450 points
on Wednesday, before cutting losses and ending the day "only"
173 points down. Traders were influenced by a welter of
bad data -- a retail sales index and a manufacturing index
falling significantly more than economists had predicted.

European stocks fell to a ten month low, with index values falling
2-3% across the board. For the past few months, Europe has been
increasingly in a deflationary spiral, with the inflation rate now
below 0.1%.

Traders are also concerned that the Ebola crisis will harm
the global economy.

Possibly more significant are the wild swings that have characterized
the stock market during the last couple of weeks. Economist Robert
Shiller, appearing on CNBC last week on Friday, said that he was
concerned about the wild swings, and that they happened in 2008, 2007,
and 1929, just prior to the crash. So if, for example, stocks
gain 500 points tomorrow, then it would be cheered as good news,
but in fact it would just be a large swing upwards. The next
one might be a downward swing of 1000 points.

At the very least, the wild swings signal a time of danger.
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and selloff. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings index is
around 19, much higher than the historical average of 14, indicating a
huge stock market bubble. A crash has to happen sooner or later, and
it's possible that these wild swings are signaling that this is the
time. Reuters and Bloomberg and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed
****

Greece's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras sought to restore public calm
on Wednesday, as stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange plunged 6.25%.
Socks have fallen 23.24% since January.

Even more significant, the yields (interest rates) on Greece's
ten-year bonds spiked sharply upward to 7.73%. This means that
if Greece wants to borrow money on the open market, Greece
will have to pay 7.73% interest, which is not affordable.

Long-time readers will recall the drama of the various European
bailout events of Greece in the 2010-2012 time frame. See, for
example, "28-Nov-12 World View -- Europe's new charade in Greece's bailout announcement"
, in which Greece was given a new 44 billion euro bailout loan, and Samaras
said:

<QUOTE>"A very grey, a very dark period for Greece officially
ended yesterday and it has ended for good. We Greeks were made for
tough times, and when the going gets tough, it brings out the best
in us."<END QUOTE>

Promises like this were never going to be kept, as I said repeatedly,
and as pretty much everyone basically knew. Underneath the "tough
times" rhetoric was a Pollyannaish assumption that Europe and the
world would return to the "growth" of the mid-2000s decade credit and
real estate bubbles, when anyone could borrow money to do anything.
That was never going to happen again, but it was this fantastical
assumption that led to the rosy predictions that Greece's dark days
were over.

It was always just a matter of time before Greece's bailout would
fail, and it appears that the time is now. Greece is facing both an
economic crisis and a political crisis. The radical left-wing
political party Syriza is becoming increasingly popular in the polls,
with the result that the government may collapse in the next few
months, forcing new elections, bringing far left communist politics
back to the European political stage.

Syriza wants to renege on the bailout money that Greece owes to
Europe. This would push Greece's government into bankruptcy, and push
bond yields up well into double or even triple digits, making it
almost impossible for Greece to borrow money. Kathimerini (Athens) and AP and Business Insider

****
**** The price of oil plummets along with stocks
****

The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil
fell 5% on Wednesday to $81.84, well below the $100-120 range
of the past few years. Two reasons are being given for the
startling collapse in oil prices.

First, the supply of oil is surging. In the U.S., shale
oil production ("fracking") has been growing rapidly. Non-OPEC
countries have been exporting more oil. Canada has replaced
Saudi Arabia as the largest source of imported oil.

Second, the demand for oil is falling. Sluggish economies around the
world mean less oil is need, and even China's demand is softening.

Generational Dynamics predicts a global deflationary spiral, and the
falling price of oil is part of that. Countries like Russia, Iran and
Saudi Arabia, which depend on income from oil sales, will be suffering
economic woes that will translate into a general global slowdown.
CNBC and Fortune and Forbes

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Dow Jones Industrial Average,
Ebola, Robert Shiller, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio,
Greece, Antonis Samaras, Syriza, West Texas Intermediate,
Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Deflation is back. The global demographic curve makes it inevitable. The deflationary market behavior is out ahead of the actual global population growth inflection point by 20 - 25 years.

*** 17-Oct-14 World View -- In humiliation, Turkey loses Security Council seat over Syria policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In humiliation, Turkey loses Security Council seat over Syria policy
• Venezuela scores anti-U.S. coup by winning Security Council seat
• Pakistan's Taliban leaders declare allegiance to ISIS

****
**** In humiliation, Turkey loses Security Council seat over Syria policy
****


Recep Tayyip Erdogan

In a major humiliation to Turkey, the U.N. General Assembly on
Thursday selected Spain instead of Turkey to hold a non-permanent
Security Council seat in 2015. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan had been lobbying hard for several months to win approval for
the seat. Last month, Erdogan sucked up to several emerging market
countries by promising to open up the five permanent member seats to
other countries:

<QUOTE>"The world is bigger than five. The fate of a country
should not be in the hands of the US, France, Russia, China or the
UK.

"A rotating system which would allow 193 member countries to be
represented at the Council should be formed. There should be no
notion of permanent membership; every country should have the
chance to be represented."<END QUOTE>

There was even a posh party on Wednesday, the night before the vote.

But apparently all the sucking up did no good. The non-permanent
seats are divided by groups or regions, and Turkey is in the "Western
European and Others Group," and within that group, Turkey was
competing with Spain and New Zealand for two seats. New Zealand won
approval for one of the seats, and it was widely expected that Turkey
would get the other seat. So it was a surprise to everyone when
Turkey got only 60 votes in the General Assembly, and Spain won the
seat with 132 votes in the secret ballot.

Turkey was apparently caught by surprise because of an intense
lobbying effort by some of his former allies in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC). Egypt and Saudi Arabia led the anti-Turkey effort
because of Erdogan's support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood,
which Egypt and Saudi Arabia consider to be a terrorist organization.

But the main force behind the anti-Turkey vote was Turkey's Syria
policy. Leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
are fuming at Turkey's unwillingness to fully back the military
coalition against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL). One European diplomat was quoted as saying,

<QUOTE>"I thought they [Turkey] would lose votes, but the
scale of their loss is surprising to me, very much so. It seems
that Turkey was killed by the GCC [Gulf Cooperation
Council]."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's Syria policy -- and its frequent calls to unseat Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad -- pulled additional votes away from Turkey,
including those of Syria and Iran. And Greece, Turkey's traditional
enemy since ancient times, is also said to have lobbied against
Turkey.

Since the voting was conducted by a secret ballot, it's not known
whether the United States voted for or against Turkey. Business Insider and Newsweek and Middle East Eye

****
**** Venezuela scores anti-U.S. coup by winning Security Council seat
****

Venezuela was unopposed in its regional group, and received 181 votes
in the 193-member General Assembly, more than enough to get a
non-permanent Security Council seat in 2015, despite ten abstentions.
Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro said:

<QUOTE>"This is the victory of Hugo Chávez Frias. Chavez
keeps winning battles in the world ... It's a day in which the
world has supported our fatherland."<END QUOTE>

Venezuela is expected to back allies Iran, Syria and Russia, and to
take other anti-American positions. Since Venezuela, Syria, Iran and
Russia are all such paragons of human rights, I'm sure we can expect a
much more moral U.N. Security Council next year. Foreign Policy and World Bulletin (Turkey)

****
**** Pakistan's Taliban leaders declare allegiance to ISIS
****

As we reported two weeks ago, the leaders of the Pakistani Taliban
(Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) have decided to switch sides and support the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) instead the
al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (Nusra Front) in Syria. ( "6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support"
)

On Monday, the TTP leaders went beyond support for ISIS by declaring
full allegiance to ISIS, repudiating their previous pledges of
allegiance to al-Qaeda. According to Shahidullah Shahid, now a former
TTP leader:

<QUOTE>"I declare allegiance to the Caliph of Muslims, Amirul
Momineen Abu Bakar al Baghdadi al Qarshi al Hussaini. I will
listen and follow his every instruction whatever the situation may
have been. This allegiance is neither from the TTP or its chief,
Mullah Fazlullah. This is only from me and five
leaders."<END QUOTE>

This statement hastens the disintegration of both the TTP and
al-Qaeda, and signals the increasing strength of ISIS. Dawn (Pakistan) and Tribune (Pakistan)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez, Russia,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Shahidullah Shahid,
Mullah Fazlullah

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 18-Oct-14 World View -- Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls
• Barrage of airstrikes stops ISIS advance on Kobani, Syria
• Investors cheer as Wall Street gains 263 points on Friday

****
**** Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls
****


Nigerians carrying 'Bring back our girls' banner (Reuters)

Nigeria's government announced on Friday that they're reached a truce
with the Boko Haram terrorist group, which has been terrorizing the
entire northeast, as well as major cities up and down the country, for
years. It's now the six month anniversary of the abduction of 219
schoolgirls on April 16.

In announcing the truce, Nigeria's Chief of Defense Staff, Air Marshal
Alex Badeh gave almost no details and took no questions. Another
government official said that the deal would free the 219 abducted
schoolgirls. He said that more talks would take place to work out
exactly how the girls would be released.

However, multiple analysts in Nigeria are casting doubt on the
credibility of the deal. For one thing, there's been no announcement
from anyone in Boko Haram. Some analysts have even claimed that the
Boko Haram militant who brokered the deal was an imposter, with no
connection to the Boko Haram leadership.

According to one Nigerian columnist:

<QUOTE>"I guess Nigerians are tired and, as such, any news
that offers respite on this protracted war between Nigeria &
#BokoHaram is always welcome. Sadly anybody that demised(sic)
such good news becomes Nigeria’s enemy. But the leadership of #BH
are said to be miffed that a nation of the profile and magnitude
of Nigeria, with high level of intelligent people, is being easily
encased in deceit and nobody seems to be asking tough questions.

What is most worrying here is, government at the highest level and
the intelligence formations in #Nigeria has embraced this 'good
news.' This shows lack of understanding of the reality that this
is an ideology that can only be neutralized after long hard work
that is yet to start.

It also appears that government is more interested in shadows and
bubbles, than in substance and clear headed engagement with the
#BokoHaram ideology."<END QUOTE>

The News (Nigeria) and BBC and AFP

****
**** Barrage of airstrikes stops ISIS advance on Kobani, Syria
****

An onslaught of dozens of airstrikes by U.S. warplanes in the last few
days has halted the advance of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL) on the Syrian town of Kobani, and permitted the
Kurdish defenders of Kobani to drive back the ISIS in some, but not
all, of Kobani. According to Kurdish officials, the Kurdish defenders
were giving the coordinates of the ISIS militants to the U.S. to
identify bombing targets.

As of last week, it seemed that ISIS was on the verge of overrunning
the Kurds defending Kobani, which is on the border with Turkey, while
Turkey's armed forces simply watched the slaughter from tanks in the
hills overlooking Kobani. Turkey has been under heavy international
criticism for doing nothing to stop the slaughter, but has demanded
that the U.S. agree to attack targets assets of the Bashar al-Assad
regime before Turkey will commit troops to Kobani.

Analysts, including U.S. administration analysts, are not claiming
that this is the end of the battle of Kobani. ISIS has been sending
in reinforcements, and they seem determined to overrun Kobani in order
to humiliate the U.S. administration and its airstrike strategy.
Reuters and World Bulletin (Turkey)

****
**** Investors cheer as Wall Street gains 263 points on Friday
****

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 263.17 points on Friday,
continuing a pattern of wild ups and downs during the last couple of
weeks. Some analysts were euphoric, while others were just relieved.
As I explained two days ago,
these wild swings signal a very dangerous time when a crash might be
approaching. This would be the case if the amplitude of the swings
continues to increase in the next few days, though not necessarily if
the swings settle down. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a global financial panic and selloff. Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Alex Badeh,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Kobani, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey,
Dow Jones Industrial Average

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail