*** 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Ebola endgame
• Updating the Global Conflict Risk Assessment for Ebola
• The World Health Organization (WHO)
• Ebola in West Africa
• Ebola in megacities and dense slums
• Ebola in war zones

****
**** The Ebola endgame
****

Today, the biggest threat to US security by far is China, which is
preparing as rapidly as possible for a preemptive massive missile
attack on American cities, aircraft carriers, and military
installations. There are also terrorist threats to the U.S., but what
we now call terrorism will simply dissolve and be subsumed into World
War III. For example, the ISIS "terrorist" group will join with the
Sunni component of the coming sectarian Sunni vs Shia war in the
Mideast, while the Hezbollah "terrorist" group will join the Shia
component. The Shia component will be allied with Iran, Russia and
India, while the Sunni component will be allied with Pakistan and
China. In that sense, what we now call terrorism is really just a
side show to what will be a number of regional and global existential
wars over the next 10-15 years. There's no guarantee that the United
States will survive.

The above Generational Dynamics assessment, or something like it,
might have been written at any time in the last few years.

But now there's major new factor that has to be considered: The Ebola
pandemic. It's now clear that Ebola will play an important role in
the world in the next few years, and will change the course of
history. Ebola will spread in Africa beyond West Africa. It will
spread first into war zones, such as Syria, and it will spread into
densely packed slums in megacities. For that reason, it will a big
part of the coming world war. I fully expect Ebola to have spread
around the world by 2030, killing hundreds of millions of people.

****
**** Updating the Global Conflict Risk Assessment for Ebola
****

In 2004, I identified the "The six most dangerous regions in world" based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis. My conclusion at the time was that a new world war would be
started by a regional war in one of those six regions, or by a global
financial crisis or by a global bird flu pandemic.

I incorporated those six region/items in a "Global Conflict Risk
Assessment" graphic that I began posting on the Home Page of my web site.
Its purpose was to encapsulate the current state of the world, and
the likelihood of world conflict. The intention was that the graphic
would be updated only rarely, as world events require. The original
graphic, posted on October 1, 2004 was:


Global Conflict Risk Graphic - October 1, 2004

Note that in 2004, I considered the most dangerous of all to be the
Russian Caucasus, because of the recent Beslan massacre and because
... wait for it! ... Russia's president Vladimir Putin was showing
extreme belligerence toward Ukraine. That was ten years ago. Plus
ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

There have been seven changes in the ten years since then, the last
one on January 1, 2013:


Global Conflict Risk Graphic - January 1, 2013

If you'd like to review all the Conflict Risk Graphics in
chronological order, along with brief explanations of why each risk
level was assigned, see Global Conflict Risk Graphics

Today I'm updating the graphic for the first time since the
beginning of 2013. The updated graphic is as follows:


Global Conflict Risk Graphic - October 19, 2014

The two most significant changes is that two items have crossed over from
"High Risk" to "Active":

• Mideast: The "Arab Awakening" has so thoroughly
  destabilized the Mideast that, in my view, the Syria/Iraq and Yemen
  wars will be not be settled before the spiral into a larger regional
  war. This is in contrast to the five previous Mideast wars: the war
  between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in
  2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in
  2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war
  between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between
  Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.
  Those wars could be settled with a ceasefire, but in my view, no
  ceasefire is possible in the Syria/Iraq and Yemen wars anymore.
  
• Ebola: It's now clear that Ebola will not be controlled,
  and will play a significant role in the world's future. I'll be
  discussing this issue at length below.

****
**** The World Health Organization (WHO)
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) has been under a great deal of
criticism from politicians trying to deflect the blame from their own
failings. One common criticism is that WHO did not react quickly
enough after the first Ebola outbreak in Guinea, and didn't even
realize the severity of the problem. In fact, WHO has conducted its
own internal investigation, and found that "it botched attempts to
stop the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, blaming factors including
incompetent staff and a lack of information," and that they should
have realized that "traditional infectious disease containment methods
wouldn't work in a region with porous borders and broken health
systems," according to the AP

In fact, the Ebola crisis is the moment that the World Health
Organization was created for. It was created by the survivors of
World War II -- and it was also created by the survivors of the 1918
Spanish Flu epidemic that killed tens of millions of people. The WHO
should have reacted immediately on the Ebola breakout, and done
everything possible to make sure that the mistakes of 1918 would not
be repeated.

But anyone who understands generational theory knows that that's not
how the world works. The survivors of a crisis, any crisis, spend
their lives implementing institutions and measures to guarantee that
the same crisis will not happen again, but once those survivors are
gone, the generations of survivors that come after will simply believe
that no such thing, in this case something like the 1918 epidemic,
could ever happen again, because we're all smarter now and so those
old-fashioned crises are no longer possible.

The critical generational event occurred in 1976, 58 years after the
1918 epidemic, when the "swine flu" panic occurred. The public became
hysterical over the possibility of a new flu pandemic. Responding to
public demands, the government prepared millions of doses of swine flu
vaccine. The pandemic amounted to nothing, and the whole thing was a
political fiasco.

So the 1976 swine flu fiasco served the purpose of discrediting anyone
who worried about a new epidemic. This generational change in
attitude continues today, and explains why WHO "botched" the Ebola
investigation. (For further discussion of the 58-year hypothesis, see
"The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki."
from 2008.)

****
**** Ebola in West Africa
****

In fact, it's not clear to me that WHO could have stopped the Ebola
pandemic even if they had been sufficiently alarmed when it started.
In the previous section, we quoted WHO as blaming itself for not
realizing that "traditional infectious disease containment methods
wouldn't work in a region with porous borders and broken health
systems." Those porous borders and broken health systems would have
been the same whether WHO was alarmed or not.

There have been several outbreaks of Ebola, mostly in Zaire (now
renamed to Congo). In those cases, the outbreaks were confined to a
few small, remote villages, and the outbreaks were controlled by
blocking travel into or out of the affected villages, and then letting
the pandemic "burn itself out," in the words of one analyst I heard.
This means that everyone in the village became infected. Most people
died, but the ones who survived could rebuild their villages and be
immune to Ebola for the rest of their lives.

Well, whether that kind of containment could have been accomplished
when it first broke out in Guinea is not known to me, but it's certainly
true that containment will not work now.

The mathematics of the published figures is irresistible. There are
10,000 infections now in West Africa, and the number of infections
doubles every 3-4 weeks. That means that there will be millions of
infections by Summer or Fall 2015. And there's nothing that can stop
it from spreading beyond West Africa - Côte d'Ivoire is particularly
vulnerable.

Furthermore, 50-70% of those infected die. This means that within a
couple of years or so, more than half the population of West Africa
will die of Ebola. The same will be true of other countries that
the spread of Ebola reaches.

What about a vaccine? I have not heard anyone say that a vaccine will
be available in less than a year or two in large quantities. Even if
a vaccine were available today, could it be administered to, say, the
population of Côte d'Ivoire in time to save it from the spread of
Ebola? I would think not.

****
**** Ebola in megacities and dense slums
****


Lagos, Nigeria

Lagos has a fairly sophisticated health system. When an Ebola patient
arrived by plane in Lagos in July, there was a swift reaction.
Through contact tracing, officials located some 900 people who were
potentially exposed to the disease. There were finally 19 confirmed
cases of Ebola and eight deaths, but the infection was stopped in
Nigeria.

But now imagine someone with Ebola arriving on the train pictured
above in Lagos, Nigeria, and visiting friends and family. Suppose he
infected a couple of other people, and before anyone realized what was
going on, people with whom he'd been in contact left town on the same
train. This is not an unlikely scenario. How would that Ebola
outbreak be contained?

Passengers aren't identified on a train the way they are on a plane.
So contact tracing would be impossible. If there were 900 people
potentially exposed, there would be no way to identify and find them,
and they would go on infecting other people.

Once again, this is not an unlikely scenario. It's fairly certain to
happen, and it's fairly certain to continue happening.

Megacities are particularly vulnerable, because there is public
transportation and anonymity. The 20 largest megacities in the world,
according to Demographia (PDF) are:


POPULATIONS OF WORLD'S 20 LARGEST MEGACITIES
----------------------------------------------------------------
| 1 | Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan | 37,555,000 |
| 2 | Jakarta (Jabotabek), Indonesia | 29,959,000 |
| 3 | Delhi, DL-HR-UP, India | 24,134,000 |
| 4 | Seoul-Incheon, South Korea | 22,992,000 |
| 5 | Manila, Philippines | 22,710,000 |
| 6 | Shanghai, SHG-ZJ-JS, China | 22,650,000 |
| 7 | Karachi, Pakistan | 21,585,000 |
| 8 | New York, NY-NJ-CT, United States | 20,661,000 |
| 9 | Mexico City, Mexico | 20,300,000 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo, Brazil | 20,273,000 |
| 11 | Beijing, BJ, China | 19,277,000 |
| 12 | Guangzhou-Foshan, GD, China | 18,316,000 |
| 13 | Mumbai, MAH, India | 17,672,000 |
| 14 | Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Japan | 17,234,000 |
| 15 | Moscow, Russia | 15,885,000 |
| 16 | Los Angeles, CA, United States | 15,250,000 |
| 17 | Cairo, Egypt | 15,206,000 |
| 18 | Bangkok, Thailand | 14,910,000 |
| 19 | Kolkota, WB, India | 14,896,000 |
| 20 | Dhaka, Bangladesh | 14,816,000 |
----------------------------------------------------------------


However, what may be more important than total population is
population density. The following table lists the most densely
populated cities in the world, with a few United States cities added
to the end of the table:


#PEOPLE/SQ MILE IN WORLD'S MOST DENSELY POPULATED CITIES
------------------------------------------------------------
| 1 | Dhaka, Bangladesh | 44,000 |
| 2 | Hyderabad, Pakistan | 40,700 |
| 3 | Mumbai, MAH, India | 32,300 |
| 4 | Kalyan, MAH, India | 30,300 |
| 5 | Chittagong, Bangladesh | 28,400 |
| 6 | Vijayawada. AP, India | 27,900 |
| 7 | Hong Kong, China: Hong Kong SAR | 25,700 |
| 8 | Malegaon, HAM, India | 24,700 |
| 9 | Macau, China: Macau SAR | 23,700 |
| 10 | Aligarh, UP, India | 23,500 |
| 11 | Karachi, Pakistan | 22,800 |
| 12 | Ranchi, JHA, India | 21,200 |
| 13 | Surat, GUJ, India | 21,000 |
| 14 | Madurai, TN, India | 20,700 |
| 15 | Gwalior, MP, India | 20,700 |
| 16 | Asansol, WB, India | 20,500 |
| 17 | Salem, TN, India | 20,000 |
| 18 | Ahmedabad, GUJ, India | 19,800 |
| 18 | Rajkot, GUJ, India | 19,800 |
| 20 | Kathmandu, Nepal | 19,400 |
| 37 | Kinshasa, Congo (Dem. Rep.) | 16,700 |
| 39 | Bogota, Colombia | 16,600 |
| 40 | Gaza, Palestine | 16,500 |
| 43 | Alexandria, Egypt | 15,600 |
| 55 | Kano, Nigeria | 15,000 |
| 81 | Lagos, Nigeria | 13,800 |
| 209 | Mexico City, Mexico | 9,800 |
| 564 | Leicester, United Kingdom | 4,700 |
| 794 | Los Angeles, CA, United States | 2,400 |
| 808 | San Francisco-San Jose, CA, United States | 2,100 |
| 823 | Honolulu, HI, United States | 1,900 |
| 823 | Las Vegas, NV, United States | 1,900 |
| 829 | Miami, FL, United States | 1,800 |
| 830 | New York, NY-NJ-CT, United States | 1,800 |
------------------------------------------------------------


Of course, a city doesn't have to be on either of these lists to be
vulnerable. Even a small, densely populated neighborhood in an
otherwise sparsely populated city could be vulnerable.

Either way, the point is that megacities and densely populated cities
are going to be vulnerable to Ebola outbreaks, and many of these
outbreaks will occur before it's all over.

****
**** Ebola in war zones
****

There have been a small number of Ebola cases in the United States so
far, and what I've learned by watching them unfold is that controlling
them requires the following:

• Temperature screenings at airports, bus and train stations,
  seaports, or at any point of entry at any border.
• Patient isolation of infected patients, or suspects.
• Contact tracing -- identifying and isolating anyone with whom
  an infected patient has had contact.

None of these things will be possible in a war zone, where health
services will have broken down, and where health workers will be
vulnerable to gunfire and bombs. That means that once even a small
Ebola outbreak occurs in war zone, there will generally be no way to
keep it from spreading.

I've been writing for years about the coming Clash of Civilization
world war where India, Russia and Iran will be our allies versus
China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslims. Now we have to add the "Ebola
factor," which will interact with everything else going on in the
world. Ebola outbreaks will destabilize more regions of the world,
leading to more wars, and war zones will be the perfect places where
Ebola outbreaks can spread.

During the time of the Black Death plague of the 1340s, attacking
armies would use catapults to hurl dead soldiers over the walls of
walled cities, so that the citizens of those cities would also die of
the plague. Maybe in the next few years, we'll be seeing some of
those catapults again.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO,
Global Conflict Risk Assessment, West Africa, China

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*** 20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'
• Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel

****
**** China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'
****


Hong Kong protesters raise their hands in a symbolic show of peace and non-violence on Sunday (EPA)

China's hand-picked Hong Kong leader, Leung Chun-ying, is saying that
the pro-democracy protests are "out of control," and that they're
being supported by "external forces," echoing Chinese state media that
"anti-China forces" such as the United States are manipulating the
protesters.

A week ago, the protesters and the government were going to have talks
to determine a political solution, and the demonstrators, who had
previously numbered in the tens of thousands, had dwindled down to
only a few hundred. It looked like the demonstrations would fizzle
out completely.

However, then the talks broke down, and Leung announced that there was
zero probability that China would back down and allow free, open
elections in 2017. This brought thousands of protesters back out --
not as many as before, but still a sizeable number. Although the
three weeks of protests have been mostly peaceful, there have been
clashes with police for the last four nights, Protesters accused the
police of using "deadly" force, with some demonstrators suffering head
wounds, fractures and bruising, and others carried away on stretchers.

On Sunday night, Leung blamed infiltration of the protest movement
by forces outside of Hong Kong:

<QUOTE>"I shan’t go into details, but this is not entirely a
domestic movement.

The Hong Kong government and the police force have exercised
extreme tolerance and patience. That’s what we have done and what
we will continue to do."<END QUOTE>

But he also vowed to "restore law and order in Hong Kong as soon as
possible."

However, protesters claim that the protests are "purely by citizens,
purely by those who live in Hong Kong." According to a protest
leader:

<QUOTE>"To make a statement that there are foreign powers
infiltrating this movement right before the discussions, is
evidence that [Leung] is hoping to crack down on the entire
movement.

As the chief executive of Hong Kong, he should probably have solid
evidence before making such a statement. He can't just say there
is foreign infiltration and this is really
irresponsible."<END QUOTE>

Despite the protests, talks between the government and protesters
are set to resume on Tuesday.

More broadly, China's government is increasingly cracking down
on dissent throughout China, what it calls "subversive ideas."
In a memo, the Communist Party warned of "seven perils" that
were taking root in the country, including the following five:

• "Western constitutional democracy";
• "promoting universal values of human rights";
• "Western-inspired notions of media independence
  and civil society";
• "ardently pro-market neo-liberalism";
• "nihilist" criticisms of the party's traumatic past.

Australian/AFP and BBC and Nation Multimedia

****
**** Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel
****

In recent months, the price of a barrel of oil has fallen from about
$110 down to $80-85. Global economies have been softening, reducing
the demand for oil. And the supply of oil has been surging, with
U.S. shale oil production ("fracking") and supplies from other
countries growing.

Oil revenues have been a major source of foreign reserves for Russia,
and the falling oil prices have affected Russia's economy. According
to Russia's president Vladimir Putin:

<QUOTE>"If oil prices remain at $80 per barrel, it will lead
to production collapse. Budgets of all major oil-producing
countries are based on the price of more than $80, close to $90
per barrel."<END QUOTE>

Russia is not the only economy suffering because of low oil prices.
Many Mideast countries have hugely increased public spending after
growing instability from the Arab spring. Venezuela and Iran
similarly depend on high oil prices.

The U.S. economy is also affected. It's true that low oil prices
translate into lower gas/petrol prices, but it's also true that much
U.S. oil production becomes unprofitable as oil prices fall to $80.

This reality is affecting politics in 12 member Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Smaller producers want Saudi
Arabia to cut oil production, in order to force prices back up. But
the Saudis are actually increasing oil production, because they want
to try to put America's oil fracking production out of business.
Ria Novosti (Moscow) and Guardian (London) and Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran,
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Investors cheer as Wall Street gains 263 points on Friday
****

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 263.17 points on Friday,
continuing a pattern of wild ups and downs during the last couple of
weeks. Some analysts were euphoric, while others were just relieved.
As I explained two days ago,
these wild swings signal a very dangerous time when a crash might be
approaching. This would be the case if the amplitude of the swings
continues to increase in the next few days, though not necessarily if
the swings settle down. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a global financial panic and selloff. Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Alex Badeh,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Kobani, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey,
Dow Jones Industrial Average

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It's a simple matter of actuarial tables. If you construct an actuarial table consisting of people with investable assets above some marker (say, 100K), then the peak of that sub population has probably already been reached in nearly every 1st world country, is imminent is the 2nd world countries, and is no more than 10 years away in the 3rd world countries. That means, the total global outlet for debt and securities cannot continue growing (and may already be in a long term secular decline). And that's all she wrote.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> It's a simple matter of actuarial tables. If you construct an
> actuarial table consisting of people with investable assets above
> some marker (say, 100K), then the peak of that sub population has
> probably already been reached in nearly every 1st world country,
> is imminent is the 2nd world countries, and is no more than 10
> years away in the 3rd world countries. That means, the total
> global outlet for debt and securities cannot continue growing (and
> may already be in a long term secular decline). And that's all she
> wrote.

I don't think Nobel prize winner Alan Krugman would agree with you.
According to him, debt can just keep growing and growing forever and
forever. Math is irrelevant.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I don't think Nobel prize winner Alan Krugman would agree with you.
According to him, debt can just keep growing and growing forever and
forever. Math is irrelevant.

RE: Math is irrelevant - LOL!

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I don't think Nobel prize winner Alan Krugman would agree with you.
According to him, debt can just keep growing and growing forever and
forever. Math is irrelevant.

Three corrections: It's Paul not Alan, and his position on debt has to do with the rate it grows in comparison to the rate the economy grows. So yes, math is not only relevant but determinant.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> Three corrections: It's Paul not Alan, and his position on debt
> has to do with the rate it grows in comparison to the rate the
> economy grows. So yes, math is not only relevant but
> determinant.

And yet, he was constantly recommending more and more debt during
2008-2009 when the economy was in recession, so you haven't correctly
stated his position.

His position is that debt can keep growing and growing forever and
forever because eventually the economy will grow enough to swallow the
debt, no matter how large it gets. That's not math. That's loony
left ideology.

*** 21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands
• Reversing policies, Turkey and U.S. escalate involvement in Kobani

****
**** Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands
****


Senoa Island, in the Natuna island chain

Indonesia has tried to stay out of the fight that China was having
with Vietnam and the Philippines over the former's annexation of the
latter's territories. Indonesia could do that because, even though
China was claiming Indonesia's Natuna Islands in its annexation of the
entire South China Sea, China's navy was too far away from Indonesia
to be of concern.

There's little doubt that China would like to annex Indonesia's Natuna
Islands, whose waters are rich with fish and which is adjacent to the
East Natuna gas field, one of the world's largest untapped reserves.

China's increased belligerence, and the substantial growth of its
naval and air power in the South China Sea, have caused Indonesia to
speed its naval buildup, although so far it's still far more modest
than the buildup in Vietnam and the Philippines, and it has improved
its relations with Japan and the United States.

In fact, the last few years have seen an "amphibious forces creep," a
growth in naval capabilities of several south Asian countries,
including Burma (Myanmar), Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia. One major
trigger for this buildup was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which
exposed these countries as woefully unequipped to engage in disaster
relief operations. Although much of the naval buildup has been
labeled as being for humanitarian reasons, the last few years have
seen a buildup of offensive naval forces to counter China's
belligerence. The Diplomat and Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and Reuters (25-Aug)

****
**** Reversing policies, Turkey and U.S. escalate involvement in Kobani
****

Turkey's government on Monday may a surprise announcement that it will
allow Kurdish peshmerga fighters from Iraq travel through Turkey to
Kobani, Syria, to fight against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL).

Note: Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. PYD = Kurdish militias in
Syria. PKK = Kurdish anti-government insurgents in Turkey.

On Sunday evening, the White House announced that it was air-dropping
weapons to the Kurdish militias fighting in Kobani:

<QUOTE>"So as you know, this evening, our time, overnight in
Syria, the United States military delivered weapons, ammunition
and medical supplies to the forces fighting against ISIL on the
ground in Kobani. These supplies were provided by Kurdish
authorities in Iraq, and they were focused on enabling forces --
including, of course, Kurdish forces in Syria -- to continue their
fight against ISIL."<END QUOTE>

The U.S. announcement appears to be an escalation, though the White
House that it's within the scope of previous announcements.

However, Turkey's announcement is a clear reversal of policy, as the
government has recently said that it would provide no help whatsoever
to the PYD, equating them to the terrorist PKK.

The two announcements appear to be a face-saving way for both sides to
provide aid to the Kurdish militants in Kobani. The U.S. isn't
shipping American weapons to Kobani; it's shipping weapons obtained
from the Iraqi peshmerga. Turkey isn't allowing Turkish Kurds into
Kobani; it's allowing Iraqi Kurds into Kobani. Hurriyet (Ankara) and White House

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Indonesia, Natuna Islands, Senoa Island,
China, Vietnam, Philippines, South China Sea, Malaysia,
Turkey, Kobani, Kurds, Iraq, Peshmerga, Syria, PYD,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I don't think Nobel prize winner Alan Krugman would agree with you.
According to him, debt can just keep growing and growing forever and
forever. Math is irrelevant.

Yeah, right. Debt and the interest which accrues thereof is an exponential math formula. Debt accrual has the same chance of going on forever as bacteria in a petri dish.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

Yeah, right. Debt and the interest which accrues thereof is an exponential math formula. Debt accrual has the same chance of going on forever as bacteria in a petri dish.

I know a few people still sticking it out in banking. In spite of barbs about "banksters" and the general feeling most people have about the bail outs, etc, the average person in banking has not made out like a bandit. I would say that for my banker friends, they went from cautious optimism, to, guarded pessimism, to, completely freaking out, over the course of the past year. Sitting at a bank, and looking at the ways the profits are made there, the view ahead is of a box canyon. There is no way out, no exit strategy.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

And yet, he was constantly recommending more and more debt during 2008-2009 when the economy was in recession, so you haven't correctly stated his position.

I can't think of a better time for the Federal government to spend like a drunken sailor than the height of a recession, when no one else is. The economy is a virtuous cycle, little different in operation than the water cycle. For the water cycle to work, there has to be rain that can be used by plants and animals, then aspirated back to form more rain (extremely simplified, I know). The economy is the same. If no one spends, then there is no money for salaries and even less spending. The Feds can spend at will, and keep the cycle moving. 20 years of poor economic performance by Japan is a good example of why doing that is important, and why not doing it is tragic.

Originally Posted by JJX ...

His position is that debt can keep growing and growing forever and forever because eventually the economy will grow enough to swallow the debt, no matter how large it gets. That's not math. That's loony left ideology.

Growth is not mandatory, but mild inflation certainly is. $1 in 1914 was worth much more than $1 today, yet the denomination is the same. Look at the entire debt from WWII: $900Billion. We run annual deficits larger than that today. So yes, Krugman is right.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I can't think of a better time for the Federal government to spend like a drunken sailor than the height of a recession, when no one else is. The economy is a virtuous cycle, little different in operation than the water cycle. For the water cycle to work, there has to be rain that can be used by plants and animals, then aspirated back to form more rain (extremely simplified, I know). The economy is the same. If no one spends, then there is no money for salaries and even less spending. The Feds can spend at will, and keep the cycle moving. 20 years of poor economic performance by Japan is a good example of why doing that is important, and why not doing it is tragic.



Growth is not mandatory, but mild inflation certainly is. $1 in 1914 was worth much more than $1 today, yet the denomination is the same. Look at the entire debt from WWII: $900Billion. We run annual deficits larger than that today. So yes, Krugman is right.

It's ultimately futile, there is not a long term outlet for the tranches of debt. If there is not a growing pool of high net worth investors, then there is no one to sell the incremental debt to at a good price. The market is pricing this in already. I believe the market is smarter than people think. The market is pricing in the supply demand situation that will likely be in force in the 2034 - 2039 time frame.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

It's ultimately futile, there is not a long term outlet for the tranches of debt. If there is not a growing pool of high net worth investors, then there is no one to sell the incremental debt to at a good price. The market is pricing this in already. I believe the market is smarter than people think. The market is pricing in the supply demand situation that will likely be in force in the 2034 - 2039 time frame.

Oh, so that's why inflation is below target in the US and way below target in Europe and Japan. If we continue to operate far below capacity, why will that change? So your assumption about 2034 is not going to happen. The one time we had double-digit inflation, it was triggered by an oil embargo. What will be the trigger this time?

FWIW, the Fed-created part of the money supply (monetary base or MB) is a small fraction of the 'money' in circulation. the Fed created vast amounts of money, and inflation stayed low because the economy is depressed. If and when the economy begins to act like one, then inflation will begin to accelerate and the Fed will react accordingly. If the Fed needs to reclaim the money it created, it certainly can.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Oh, so that's why inflation is below target in the US and way below target in Europe and Japan. If we continue to operate far below capacity, why will that change? So your assumption about 2034 is not going to happen. The one time we had double-digit inflation, it was triggered by an oil embargo. What will be the trigger this time?

FWIW, the Fed-created part of the money supply (monetary base or MB) is a small fraction of the 'money' in circulation. the Fed created vast amounts of money, and inflation stayed low because the economy is depressed. If and when the economy begins to act like one, then inflation will begin to accelerate and the Fed will react accordingly. If the Fed needs to reclaim the money it created, it certainly can.

You might have misread my posts and some others on this theme. I am not thinking about inflation. I am thinking about deflation. I actually do not think there is any specific harm in zero or near zero (or even, God forbid, negative) interest rates. I say bring it on. But such rates will ultimately accomplish nothing. They are pain relievers, not a cure.

*** Monday:

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> his position on debt has to do with the rate it [debt] grows in
> comparison to the rate the economy grows.

*** Tuesday:

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> I can't think of a better time for the Federal government to spend
> like a drunken sailor than the height of a recession, when no one
> else is.

*** 22-Oct-14 World View -- Hong Kong leader suggests that the poor shouldn't be allowed to vote

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong leader suggests that the poor shouldn't be allowed to vote
• Violent rioting breaks out in Sierra Leone town over Ebola case
• Health officials promote new ideas to curb Ebola deaths

****
**** Hong Kong leader suggests that the poor shouldn't be allowed to vote
****


Hong Kong students watch televised debate on Tuesday evening (Finance Asia)

Hong Kong residents were promised fully free and fair elections
when Britain returned the British colony over to China in 1997.
China has consistently stalled on the promise, triggering
the protests of the last few weeks. These protests have been
mostly peaceful, but there have been some clashes with police
in the last few days.

Hong Kong's Beijing-appointed leader Leung Chun-ying (CY Leung) made a
gaffe on Monday evening during remarks to reports. In attempting to
explaining why free and fair elections would be a mistake, he said the
following:

<QUOTE>"If it’s entirely a numbers game and numeric
representation, then obviously you’d be talking to the half of the
people in Hong Kong who earn less than $1,800 a
month."<END QUOTE>

The implication, according to press reports, is that if poor people
were allowed to vote, then Hong Kong would turn into a welfare state
where poor people would gain more influence in politics.

This remark is certain to infuriate protesters, as one of their issues
is that many Hong Kong families are poor because of deteriorating
economic opportunities, and one of the developed world's largest
wealth gaps. According to a protest leader, "It reflects the distrust
the authorities have of the people, and it also reflects how the
current political system is biased for the rich and against the poor."
AFP and Diplomat and Finance Asia (Hong Kong)

****
**** Violent rioting breaks out in Sierra Leone town over Ebola case
****

Sierra Leone officials have imposed a curfew on an eastern town after
two people were killed in clashes between rioting youth and the
police. The clashes were triggered when a health authorities tried to
take away a 90 year old grandmother suspected of having Ebola. A
dispute erupted, resulting in gunfire and rioting.

As we wrote several days ago ( "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"
), the Ebola crisis is interacting with other
geopolitical issues, particularly causing instability wherever it
appears. Things are probably going to get increasingly ugly in the
next few months. Reuters and BBC

****
**** Health officials promote new ideas to curb Ebola deaths
****

If you live in Liberia or Sierra Leone and you go to a hospital
because you think you might be coming down with Ebola,
then there's a good chance that you'll be turned away because
there are no more beds available. You'll have to return home,
where your family will try to care for you, and may become
infected themselves.

Health officials are hoping that Ebola survivors can play a crucial
role in helping newly infected patients survive, thus bringing down
the 50-70% death rate.

The blood of an Ebola survivor will have antibodies that can fight
Ebola. Doctors can then take a sample of their blood and turn it into
a treatment called serum - by removing the red blood cells but keeping
the important antibodies - for other patients. Officials are saying
that serum may be available in Liberia within weeks.

Survivors can become caregivers for newly infected patients, thus
sparing the patients' family members from risking infection. It's
believed that Ebola survivors are henceforth immune to the Ebola
virus. However, some doctors say that this immunity is not 100%
certain, since the Ebola virus may mutate into a different form that
defeats the immunity.

One reason for the high death rate for Ebola is that patients become
dehydrated from sweating, diarrhea and vomiting. It turns out that
just drinking water is not an effective way for a dehydrated patient
to rehydrate, and it just increases the volume of diarrhea.

For this reason, low-cost packets of electrolyte rehydration salts are
being made available throughout Liberia and Sierra Leone. When mixed
with water, these become an effective oral rehydration solution (ORS).

The problem with an ORS is that the patient has to drink about 5
liters (quarts) of the ORS per day, and the ORS tastes awful. For
that reason, most ORS solutions are treated with glucose, to create a
sweeter taste.

If a patient comes down with Ebola symptoms at home, taking an ORS
right away, before the body becomes too dehydrated, is an effective
way to increase the probability of survival. BBC and Pharmacy Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying, CY Leung,
Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ebola, oral rehydration solution, ORS

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*** 23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings
• Egypt supports the anti-ISIS coalition in principle only
• Turkey and Qatar officials meet to discuss Syria strategy
• Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability

****
**** Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings
****


A Twitter user took this photo moments before the shooting. He tweeted: 'Ok so we were on a tour at that war monument in Ottawa a few minutes ago, a few seconds later there was a shooting.' Is one of these guards the soldier who was killed? (@Evanem/Toronto Star)

A gunman shot and killed a soldier at a war memorial in Ottawa on
Wednesday, then ran into the parliament building where he exchanged
gunfire with police. At this writing on Wednesday evening ET, police
are hunting for additional suspects. It's suspected, not confirmed,
that it was a "lone wolf" attack inspired by the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

Canadians are known to have the feeling that this sort of thing
happens elsewhere, not in Canada, so Canadians are in shock over these
terrorist attacks. Much of Ottawa is still locked down, as are
parliament buildings, military installations, and other potential
targets all across the country. American military installations
are also on high alert.

It was just a few hours earlier, on Tuesday, that Canada had
raised its terror level in response to intelligence reports
of "general chatter" from groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda.

And it was just two days earlier, on Monday, that a self-radicalized
"lone wolf" Canadian man ran down two soldiers, killing one. It's
believed that both the Monday and Wednesday perpetrators were Muslim
converts. Both perpetrators had previously been identified by
Canadian authorities as potential terrorists.

Last month, in mid-September, ISIS issued statements encouraging
exactly this kind of lone wolf attack. One statement called for
attacks against Egyptian security forces, who are "the guards of the
Jews, the soldiers of [Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi], the
new Pharaoh of Egypt":

<QUOTE>"Rig the roads with explosives for them. Attack their
bases. Raid their homes. Cut off their heads. Do not let them feel
secure."<END QUOTE>

A similar statement called for lone wolf attacks on other countries,
including Australia, France, Canada, the United States, and others:

<QUOTE>"If you can kill a disbelieving American or European —
especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a
Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging
war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a
coalition against the Islamic State ... kill him in any manner or
way however it may be."<END QUOTE>

Wednesday's attack is expected cause some level of panic among
ordinary Canadians. According to one commentator, "Canada will be a
different country on Thursday than it was on Wednesday." BBC and
Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Willmiot (22-Sep) and Toronto Star

****
**** Egypt supports the anti-ISIS coalition in principle only
****

Egypt has politically expressed its complete commitment to the
U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS or ISIL), saying that "the symbolism of a united coalition is
very important," but has declared that it will not dispatch military
forces to participate in its operations, nor participate in air
strikes.

There are several reasons:

• Egypt opposes limiting the war to ISIS alone, and wants
  U.S. support for internal fight against the Muslim Brotherhood, and
  other terror organizations on its own soil.
  
• Egypt also wants to support the struggle of Libyan authorities in
  Tobruk against terrorist forces in the country, which are also
  threatening the Egyptian border.
  
• Unlike other Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, that want to
  topple the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, Egypt does not
  explicitly oppose al-Assad.
  
• Many media op-ed articles in Egypt are strongly opposed to the
  anti-ISIS coalition. The main argument made in the articles is that
  the real goals of the war against ISIS are to weaken the Arab
  countries, so as to give Israel supremacy in the region, restore the
  Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt, and guarantee the supply of oil from
  the Middle East to the U.S. and its allies.
  
• Egypt is angry that the U.S. expects it to take part in the
  international struggle against terrorism while, for over a year, it
  opposed Egypt's own struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood and denied
  it the financial and military aid that it had given it prior to the
  coup that ousted Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government.
  This included delaying the transfer of the Apache helicopters that
  Egypt needs for its domestic fight against terrorism. For this reason,
  Foreign Minister Shoukry said: "Egypt supports the coalition against
  terrorism... but it makes no sense for us to mobilize our resources to
  defeat ISIS while we are being denied these resources..."

Egypt is taking a neutral stance against the al-Assad regime, while
Saudi Arabia says that the al-Assad regime is illegitimate and must be
removed. Memri

****
**** Turkey and Qatar officials meet to discuss Syria strategy
****

In an article last month ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"
), I used a Generational Dynamics analysis to
outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a growing fault
line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) plus Bahrain versus the Palestinians plus Qatar
plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning
itself with America and the West.

Although Turkey and the Arab countries on both sides are all nominally
part of the anti-ISIS coalition, Turkey and Qatar have not been
participating actively because they have completely different
objectives from the other countries:

• Qatar and Turkey are strong supporters of the Muslim
  Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and UAE consider to be terrorists. In
  fact, Qatar and Turkey have each given sanctuary to Egyptian members
  of the Brotherhood after they were ousted from power last year.
• Although all coalition members say that they support the
  "moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA), Turkey and Qatar have also
  supported, al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), many of
  whose members have joined the ranks of ISIS.

Qatar and Turkey are currently engaging in intense talks on "Issues of
security cooperation between the two countries and enhancing
coordination between ministries." It's not known whether major
changes in policy are being discussed. Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability
****

Even if it wanted to, it's doubtful that Turkey could mount an
effective cross-border operation against ISIS forces around Kobani or
anywhere else for that matter. The first problem is that the army is
very top heavy, and has not carried out any significant restructuring
or reforms for over 50 years.

Also, Turkey's army is tied down on other fronts:

• The Turkish 1st Army has 28,000 personnel deployed in northern
  Cyprus, since the 1974 war with Greece.
• The Turkish 2nd Army is strung out along the Syrian border but
  importantly also tied down by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in
  southeastern Turkey. Turkey has been fighting a PKK insurgency for
  three decades.
• The Turkish 3rd Army, installed on Turkey's eastern border with
  Iran, Armenia and Georgia, also has to contend with the PKK as
  well.

So, it's highly likely that Turkey's support for the US-led coalition
will remain rhetorical, especially if there is no agreement regarding
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's removal from power. Today's Zaman (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Canada, Ottawa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Qatar,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Turkey, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Cyprus, Iran

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*** 24-Oct-14 World View -- Plane crash killing France's Total SA president jeopardizes Russia's oil contracts

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria's deal with Boko Haram collapses as more girls are abducted
• Plane crash killing France's Total SA president jeopardizes Russia's oil contracts
• Indonesia's president calls for a 'global maritime axis'
• Wild Wall Street swings signal period of increased danger to investors

****
**** Nigeria's deal with Boko Haram collapses as more girls are abducted
****


Boko Haram abducts 40 more girls (Sun News)

When Nigeria's government last week announced a ceasefire deal with
the terrorist group Boko Haram that would return to their homes 230
schoolgirls that had been abducted in April, many people noted that
announcement was being made from one side only, and was not being
confirmed by Boko Haram leaders. ( "18-Oct-14 World View -- Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls"
)

It now turns out that the people who assumed that the government
leaders were lying or mistaken were right. In a fresh attack on
Tuesday on a different village, Boko Haram has abducted 40 more girls.
Sun News Online (Nigeria)

****
**** Plane crash killing France's Total SA president jeopardizes Russia's oil contracts
****

Christophe de Margerie, 63, head of France's oil and gas giant Total
(pronounced toe-TAL) SA was killed in a plane crash in Moscow
on Monday evening. The corporate jet carrying Margerie collided with
a snowplow on the runway as it was taking off in thick fog. Both
French and Russians are investigating the crash to determine whether
the cause was pilot error or negligence at the control tower.

De Margerie's death is considered a blow to Russia's economic
interests because he was a very vocal supporter of Russia, and opposed
European sanctions on Russia because of the latter's invasion of
Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Just hours before his death, he
said the following in a speech:

<QUOTE>"In general I’m against sanctions. I’ve repeated this
many times. You heard that. And I’ve become not very popular in my
country as I was often blamed for promoting our own interests. I
don’t like sanctions as such because I think they are both unfair
and counterproductive."<END QUOTE>

Total is currently participating in five large oil/gas projects in
Russia, and theoretically they're now all in jeopardy, thanks to
U.S. pressure, although analysts believe that Total will not
completely abandon them.

For Russia's rulers, de Margerie seemed the embodiment of an ideal
European partner and more: A French aristocrat and major oil CEO,
anti-American in inclination, whose cooperation would force the
European sanctions to collapse, and turn Russia's invasion of Ukraine
into a total victory. His sudden tragic death is seen as a severe,
devastating blow.

As a result, paranoid ultranationalists in Russia are seeing the death
of de Margerie as a deliberate plot by opponents of Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, presumably the United States. Russia Today and Russia/India Report and Jamestown

****
**** Indonesia's president calls for a 'global maritime axis'
****

Saying that Indonesia has been "neglecting our seas, oceans and bays,"
newly elected president Joko Widodo used his inaugural address to call
for turning Indonesia into a "global maritime axis."

In view of Indonesia's naval buildup plans, in reaction to China's
apparent plans to annex Indonesia's Natuna Islands by military force
( "21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands"
),
Joko's call may well be viewed as a challenge to China.

According to Joko, in his inaugural address earlier this week:

<QUOTE>"The seas, the oceans and the bays are our future, and
we have been neglected our seas, oceans and bays.

This is the time to return to Jalesveva Jayamahe [Sanskrit for 'In
the sea we will triumph']. ...

To build Indonesia into a great, prosperous and peaceful country
we must possess the soul of Cakrawati Samudra [Sanskrit for a
maritime nation with a strong merchant navy].

As the captain of the ship, I invite all Indonesians on board to
move toward a prosperous nation. To all fishermen, laborers,
farmers, meatball sellers, drivers, all the professionals -- I
call on you to work hand in hand because this is the historical
moment for us to work, work and work."<END QUOTE>

Meatball sellers?

Although Joko did not mention China, he's expected to announce a new
cabinet pot for coordinating maritime, natural resources and
environmental affairs. Jakarta Globe

****
**** Wild Wall Street swings signal period of increased danger to investors
****

Wall Street pundits were thrilled on Thursday when the Dow Jones
Industrial Average surged 216 points, over 200 points for the third
time in a week, after falling a similar amount in the preceding 6
days. These wild swings are also occurring for bond prices, oil
prices and VIX (volatility index) prices. As I've been explaining,
these wild swings signal a very
dangerous time when a crash might be approaching. This would be the
case if the amplitude of the swings continues to increase in the next
few days, though not necessarily if the swings settle down. The S&P
500 price/earnings ratio (stock valuations) is at historic highs,
indicating that the stock market is in a large bubble, and
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and selloff. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
France, Christophe de Margerie, Total SA, Russia,
Ukraine, Crimea, Vladimir Putin,
Indonesia, Joko Widodo, Natuna Islands, China

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RE: Indo notion of meatballs ... this is a SE Asian and Chinese thing. They take ground meat and a paste of that same meat or meat mixture, and form it into meatballs. Sometimes they are sold fresh but more often are vacuum packed and frozen, then sold in the freezer section of a store. Unlike the Western notion which is generally limited to beef, pork or a mixture thereof, the SE Asian notion leans more toward fish and seafood (although red meat versions are also common). One of the main ways they are consumed is from street vendors grilling them.

*** 25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola
• WHO: 'Millions of doses Ebola vaccine by end of 2015'
• World Health Organization declares a global polio outbreak
• Steve Bannon interviews John Xenakis about Ebola crisis

****
**** Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola
****


The Ebola virus (Science Insider)

The news Craig Spencer, a physician with Médecins Sans Frontières
(MSF) who was treating Ebola patients in Guinea, has himself
contracted Ebola since returning to NY city, is triggering high
anxiety and near-panic in some people in NY city, especially on the
news that Spencer took the subway and went to a bowling alley. And
yet, Spencer's situation appears to have been a template for how the
public can be kept safe from Ebola. New Yorkers are many, many times
more likely to be killed in a traffic accident than by Ebola.

By contrast, there may be a worst-case scenario unfolding in Mali.

A 2-year-old girl was carried by her grandmother hundreds of miles on
a bus that traveled from Guinea to Mali, stopping in several towns,
including two hours in the capital city Bamako. The girl had a
bleeding nose, and was first treated for typhoid on Monday in a clinic
in Mali. When she did not improve, she was tested for Ebola, which
was confirmed on Thursday.

Officials doing contact tracing identified 43 people, including 10
health workers, who came into close contact with the girl. But there
may have been dozens of additional people who came into contact with
the sick girl during the bus trip, and there is no way to trace these
people.

The NY city case and the Mali case are sharp contrasts, showing what
is and isn't possible in controlling the spread of Ebola.

As I wrote last week ( "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"
),
any large city and any war zone are places which are vulnerable to the
spread of Ebola, either unintentionally or through a terrorist act.
But as the Mali case shows, any crowded train or bus could be the
vehicle that spreads Ebola from city to city or country to country.

Since Ebola has already been spreading in Guinea for several months,
we may never know whether the 2-year-old girl is responsible infecting
other people in that country. The girl died on Friday. Forbes and BBC and CNN

****
**** WHO: 'Millions of doses Ebola vaccine by end of 2015'
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that "millions of doses" of
an Ebola vaccine will be available by the end of 2015.
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and the Public Health Agency of Canada already
have experimental vaccines in safety trials.

Normally it would take almost ten years to bring a new vaccine to
market. The "millions of doses" prediction is a best case scenario
that assumes that everything will go well in the breakneck development
being planned. Enormous shortcuts will be taken in safety and
efficacy trials, and there are insufficient manufacturing plants that
meet the "biosafety level 2" regulatory requirements, meaning that
safety standards may have to be reduced. And even if all that goes
OK, it's still possible that the vaccine won't work, or won't work
well, or will have dangerous or unpleasant side effects.

There are plenty of legal problems. Pharmaceutical companies will not
go ahead with the vaccine program unless governments absolve them of
legal liability if something goes wrong.

And then there's the problem of administering the vaccine to the
public. There are dozens of megacities in the world, each with over
20 million people. Once Ebola starts spreading in such a city, it
will be too late to start administering a vaccine. Even if the
vaccinations start early, there may be gang wars or drug cartels
making an effective vaccination program impossible. Vaccine may first
be given to the upper classes, possibly stirring unrest in the slums.

Similar problems exist in a war zone. If Ebola starts spreading in
the war zones in Central African Republic, South Sudan, Syria, Iraq,
or any other war zone, then a vaccination program will be impossible.
An Ebola vaccine will first be administered to whichever army has
control of the supply, but administering the vaccine to civilians may
be impossible.

The Ebola cases that arose this past week in NY city and Mali are
going to be repeated many, many times. As I wrote last week in ( Forecasting the Ebola endgame
, I expect
the world to look very different a year from now. BBC and Science Insider and AP

****
**** World Health Organization declares a global polio outbreak
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) is declaring a resurgence of polio
globally, with outbreaks in at least 10 countries: Pakistan, Syria,
Cameroon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Ethiopia,
Somalia and Kenya. According to a WHO official:

<QUOTE>"It’s really attributed to two things. One is the
spread out of Pakistan through the intense transmission. And then
combined with an increase in vulnerability of some highly unstable
areas like Syria where it’s been able to get another
foothold."<END QUOTE>

Karachi Pakistan is rapidly becoming a polio hub. Polio cases in
Pakistan have been surging to record-breaking levels, thanks to the
Taliban's opposition to polio vaccine, claiming that it's a Western
plot to sterilize Pakistani children. The Taliban have been murdering
health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines,
ever since the U.S. administration bragged in 2011 that a hepatitis
vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and
capture Osama bin Laden.

Polio has also re-emerged in Syria since polio vaccinations have
become extremely limited since the war began in 2011.

There has been a polio vaccine available for decades, and yet polio
has still not been eradicated. In fact, cases of polio have been
surging in war zones and large cities where there is civil strife.

If an effective Ebola vaccine is developed, it's far from clear that
even having millions of doses available will be effective in stopping
the spread of Ebola. AP and Deutsche Welle and AP (May 2014)

****
**** Steve Bannon interviews John Xenakis about Ebola crisis
****

On Sunday, October 19, Breitbart editor-in-chief interviewed me about
the Ebola crisis on his SiriusXM Patriot radio show. You can hear the
15-minute interview by clicking on: John Xenakis interviewed by Steve Bannon (MP3)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Craig Spencer, Ebola, Mali, Guinea,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
World Health Organization, WHO,
GlaxoSmithKline, GSK, Public Health Agency of Canada,
Pakistan, Syria, Karachi, Taliban, Osama bin Laden,
Steve Bannon, SiriusXM Patriot radio

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[QUOTE=John J. Xenakis;514294]*** 25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola

****
**** WHO: 'Millions of doses Ebola vaccine by end of 2015'
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that "millions of doses" of
an Ebola vaccine will be available by the end of 2015.
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and the Public Health Agency of Canada already
have experimental vaccines in safety trials.

Normally it would take almost ten years to bring a new vaccine to
market. The "millions of doses" prediction is a best case scenario
that assumes that everything will go well in the breakneck development
being planned. Enormous shortcuts will be taken in safety and
efficacy trials, and there are insufficient manufacturing plants that
meet the "biosafety level 2" regulatory requirements, meaning that
safety standards may have to be reduced. And even if all that goes
OK, it's still possible that the vaccine won't work, or won't work
well, or will have dangerous or unpleasant side effects.

There are plenty of legal problems. Pharmaceutical companies will not
go ahead with the vaccine program unless governments absolve them of
legal liability if something goes wrong.

And then there's the problem of administering the vaccine to the
public. There are dozens of megacities in the world, each with over
20 million people. Once Ebola starts spreading in such a city, it
will be too late to start administering a vaccine. Even if the
vaccinations start early, there may be gang wars or drug cartels
making an effective vaccination program impossible. Vaccine may first
be given to the upper classes, possibly stirring unrest in the slums.

Similar problems exist in a war zone. If Ebola starts spreading in
the war zones in Central African Republic, South Sudan, Syria, Iraq,
or any other war zone, then a vaccination program will be impossible.
An Ebola vaccine will first be administered to whichever army has
control of the supply, but administering the vaccine to civilians may
be impossible.

The Ebola cases that arose this past week in NY city and Mali are
going to be repeated many, many times. As I wrote last week in ( Forecasting the Ebola endgame
, I expect
the world to look very different a year from now. BBC and Science Insider and AP

http://www.slideshare.net/amepivax/e...is16august2014

Uh, well it looks like it has to work for a shitpot of HLA types. Next, what is a "hot spot" ? One of my HLA's, DRB1*0301 is one of those "hot spots".

*** 26-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai
• Sinai attack signals the end of Gaza peace agreement terms
• Hamas reports that it's resumed work on restoring tunnels used in Gaza war

****
**** Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai
****


Al-Sisi during his televised address to the nation on Saturday (VOA/MENA)

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has declared a state of
emergency in the Sinai peninsula to last three months, with a curfew
in force from 5 pm to 7 am. Egypt will also close the Rafah crossing
that connects Gaza to Egypt, effectively canceling one of the major
terms of the peace agreement that ended the Gaza war that took place
in July and August of this year.

On Friday, 26 Egyptian troops were killed when a car bomb rammed a
checkpoint in the northern Sinai, near the border with Israel. This
followed a gunfire attack on Wednesday from Sinai on an Israeli
Defense Force (IDF) unit on the other side of the border in Israel.

The perpetrators are assumed to be the Sinai terrorist group Ansar
Bayt al-Maqdas (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem).
Terror attacks have been on the increase since the army coup that
ousted president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government
on July 3 of last year, and ABM has claimed credit for many of them.
( "17-Feb-14 World View -- Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus"
)

However, the perpetrators may instead have been Jund al-Khilafah
(Soldiers of the Caliphate), a splinter group from a similarly named
Algerian terrorist group that has pledged its allegiance to the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). This group
announced itself last month, and has promised to strike American
interests and the "worshippers of the Cross" in Egypt.

There had been a few months of relative peace in the Sinai due to an
economic outreach to the Bedouin tribes living there and to the
stationing of Egyptian troops, now numbering 7,000. Friday's attack
are thus considered a major setback for the government.

Al-Sisi gave a speech on Saturday saying that the "foreign-funded
operation" was an existential attack on Egypt:

<QUOTE>"A plot is being woven against all of us. All that is
happening has been expected. Egypt is battling a huge war – a
battle of existence. We should remain united; one hand, one
heart. ...

We must know that this terrorist attack was supported by foreign
hands to defeat the military that has been protecting the Egyptian
people and their will. ...

I have noted before that the war in Sinai will last for a long
time, as there are a lot of terrorists hiding in the peninsula,
but this new level of attacks has put us in a new level of
planning too in order to combat the terrorism there.

There are attempts to drive a wedge between the people and the
army. No-one will be able to divide the Egyptian people and its
army."<END QUOTE>

Al-Sisi did not name any specific groups in his statement, but he
doesn't distinguish between the Muslim Brotherhood, and external
jihadist groups. Al-Sisi is promising to take "many measures"
suppress terror attacks. One proposed measures would allow military
courts used to try civilians accused of offences such as blocking
roads or attacking public property.
Middle East Eye and VOA and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Newsweek

****
**** Sinai attack signals the end of Gaza peace agreement terms
****

When the Gaza war ended with a cease-fire agreement ( "27-Aug-14 World View -- Israel and Hamas agree to 'long-term' truce in Gaza war"
),
the following were the terms:

• A lifting of the blockade on Gaza by Israel and Egypt, opening
  border crossing and allowing goods and people to pass back and forth.
  However, the limitations on these border crossing openings were
  not discussed.
• Israel will stop targeting Hamas leaders and commanders.
• Gaza's fishermen will be able to fish in a larger zone,
  extending six miles offshore.
• Discussions of opening Gaza's airports and seaports to start in a
  month.

Senior Hamas officials have been accusing Israel of purposely delaying
the implementation of this agreement. Much of Gaza's infrastructure
and housing was destroyed by airstrikes during the Gaza war, and
Israel is particularly accused of delaying the shipment of
construction materials into Gaza for use in rebuilding.

Egypt is accusing Hamas of being behind Friday's terrorist attack,
which Hamas denies. Egypt has now closed the Rafah crossing, which
connects Gaza to Egypt, and opening this crossing had been a major
demand of Hamas in the ceasefire negotiations. But now, unnamed
Egyptian officials are promising to go much farther.

Egypt is said to be planning to set up a buffer zone of between 1.5
and 3 kilometers along the Gaza border. Forces are expected to start
evicting people and clearing structures in the proposed buffer zone,
which will then be heavily guarded by Egyptian army patrols.

The objective of the buffer zone would be to make infiltration from
Gaza into Sinai more difficult. In particular, it would be more
difficult to rebuild the smuggling tunnels that have been built under
the wall that separates Gaza from Sinai. The Egyptian army has been
destroying these tunnels when it finds them, and the buffer zone would
mean that any new tunnel would have to be much longer, and require a
longer time to build. Times of Israel

****
**** Hamas reports that it's resumed work on restoring tunnels used in Gaza war
****


Hamas tunnel (Memri)

Hamas media is reporting that its military wing, the al-Qassam
Brigades, is actively working on restoring the attack tunnels used in
the Gaza war, after many of them were destroyed during the war. The
Hamas media report indicates that there are two kinds of tunnels:

• "Strategic attack tunnels" that tunnel under the wall
  separating Gaza from Israel, and are intended for killing or
  kidnapping Israeli soldiers, or carrying out military operations
  inside Israel.
  
• "Tactical tunnels for purposes of defense," used by Hamas to
  conceal mortars and launchers from Israeli spy planes.

According to the report:

<QUOTE>"The Al-Qassam Brigades use the tunnels for several
military missions, such as: firing rockets on Israeli cities;
firing massive barrages of hundreds of mortars on the settlements
around the Gaza Strip, and carrying out quality operations behind
enemy lines that have resulted in the killing and capture of
soldiers and terrorized millions of Israelis."<END QUOTE>

The report adds that Gaza is ready for a new war with Israel.
Memri


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Sinai, Gaza, Israel,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Bedouins, Muslim Brotherhood,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Jund al-Khilafah, Soldiers of the Caliphate,
Hamas, Rafah crossing, al-Qassam Brigades

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*** 27-Oct-14 World View -- Sunni vs Shia sectarian clashes grow in northern Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sunni vs Shia sectarian clashes grow in northern Lebanon
• Lebanon won't accept any more Syrian refugees
• One banker jumps to his death, another hangs himself this week

****
**** Sunni vs Shia sectarian clashes grow in northern Lebanon
****


Lebanon's army tanks arrive in neighborhoods of Tripoli in northern Lebanon (AP)

Clashes between the largely Shia Lebanon army versus Sunni jihadists
in the northern Lebanon city of Tripoli, on the border with Syria, are
entering their fourth day. The clashes are a spillover of the war in
Syria, and are the worst violence in Lebanon since the war began.

There are two competing Sunni jihadist groups in Tripoli. One is the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), which broke
from al-Qaeda several months ago, when its leader, Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi declared ISIS to be a new worldwide Muslim caliphate. The
other is Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), which has remained loyal to
al-Qaeda.

Over the past several weeks, militants from both al-Nusra and ISIS
have launched several attacks on the army in the Tripoli area.
Lebanon's army launched a counteroffensive on Friday, and began going
from house to house in Tripoli, searching the houses for "ISIS
suspects." This has caused a worsening humanitarian crisis, and led
to many Tripoli civilians fleeing from their homes.

In a statement Saturday, the Lebanese military vowed that its troops
would "not be pulled back until after the terrorists are eliminated."
Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Jazeera and Washington Post

****
**** Lebanon won't accept any more Syrian refugees
****

Lebanon's cabinet passed a resolution closing the borders to any more
Syrian refugees. No Syrian national will receive the "refugee"
classification in the future, except in "an exceptional humanitarian
case." Lebanon will also encourage "refugees to return home or to go
to any other country by all possible means." If the resolution is
fully implemented, then tens of thousands of Syrians with homes under
attack by either the regime of president Bashar al-Assad or the
opposition will not be able to flee to Lebanon.

There are over 3 million Syrian refugees from the war, mostly in
neighboring countries. Another 6 million have been displaced within
Syria, making it one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
Lebanon has 1.1 million officially registered Syrian refugees,
although the number is believed to be far higher. They make up almost
a quarter of the country's population of 5 million.

Lebanon has followed a different policy in handling refugees than
Turkey or Jordan, which built special camps to house the refugees.

Lebanon rejected that idea because of their experiences with
Palestinian refugee camps, which were supposed to be temporary but
have continued to exist for decades, and currently house
fundamentalist groups and armed militias, as well as Palestinian
civilians.

Also, the Palestinian refugee camps at Sabra and Shatila were the site
of a massacre of Palestinian refugees in camps 1982, an event that
still weighs heavily on Lebanese psyches.

Instead, Syrian refugees in Lebanon can live in existing communities,
rent apartments, and try to find a job. The result is that Lebanon's
economy is strained to the limit.

The new proposal will require municipalities to comb areas where
refugees are residing, and document their numbers. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Arabiya/AP

****
**** One banker jumps to his death, another hangs himself this week
****

Thierry Leyne, 48, a top business associate of former International
Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn committed suicide in
Tel Aviv on Thursday, by jumping to his death from his 23rd floor
luxury apartment in central Tel Aviv.

On Monday, the wife of Deutsche Bank banker Calogero Gambino found him
hanging by the neck from a stairway banister in their Manhattan home.
Gambino was cooperating with US regulators probing Deutsche Bank's
involvement in illegal Libor rigging.

In January, former Deutsche Bank Senior Managing Director William
Broeksmit was found by his wife hanged in his South Kensington, London
home. Later in the year, a Senate hearing on bank fraud linked
Broeksmit's name to an allegedly illegal $12 billion scheme to allow
hedge funds to avoid paying short-term capital gains taxes.

These two are the latest of 20-30 banker suicides in 2014, with JP
Morgan and Deutsche Bank strongly represented among the suicides
bankers.

During the 1930s Great Depression, bankers jumping to their deaths was
frequently a subject of black humor. ("Did you hear about the two
bankers who booked a double hotel room so that they could commit
suicide together?")

Today, it appears that there are just as many banker suicides. At
times like this, it's worthwhile reviewing the history of how we got
to this point.

Generation-X grew up in the 1980s often without fathers. They lived
in mother-only homes, thanks to policies advocated by feminists
telling mothers to dump the father and then lie in court about
domestic violence in order to get large child support payments. 30%
of whites and 72% of blacks grew up in homes with no fathers except
for a string of men in their mothers' beds. These kids grew up hating
their fathers and their mothers' boyfriends and the entire Boomer
generation. Inner city blacks in Chicago and elsewhere who kill each
other for sport are often from these fatherless families, which is not
surprising.

The elite white kids expressed their hatred differently. Many got
master's degrees in financial engineering in the 1990s, and then used
their skills to knowingly sell trillions of dollars' worth of
fraudulent subprime mortgage backed securities to the hated Boomer
investors, creating the real estate and credit bubbles that resulted
in the financial crisis, which today is far from over. Since the
Obama administration has refused to punish these Gen-X criminals,
they've remained in the same jobs, defrauding people in other ways, as
I've described many times. Many of the bankers who have committed
suicide are guilty of or suspected of being guilty of other kinds of
fraud.

So given the recent history of banking, it's perhaps not too
surprising that many bankers are committing suicide. These are
criminals whose past is finally catching up with them. New York Post and Jerusalem Post and MMNews (Germany) (Trans)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Tripoli, Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Jordan, Sabra, Shatila,
Thierry Leyne, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Calogero Gambino, Deutsche, JP Morgan,
William Broeksmit

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** One banker jumps to his death, another hangs himself this week
****

Thierry Leyne, 48, a top business associate of former International
Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn committed suicide in
Tel Aviv on Thursday, by jumping to his death from his 23rd floor
luxury apartment in central Tel Aviv.

On Monday, the wife of Deutsche Bank banker Calogero Gambino found him
hanging by the neck from a stairway banister in their Manhattan home.
Gambino was cooperating with US regulators probing Deutsche Bank's
involvement in illegal Libor rigging.

In January, former Deutsche Bank Senior Managing Director William
Broeksmit was found by his wife hanged in his South Kensington, London
home. Later in the year, a Senate hearing on bank fraud linked
Broeksmit's name to an allegedly illegal $12 billion scheme to allow
hedge funds to avoid paying short-term capital gains taxes.

These two are the latest of 20-30 banker suicides in 2014, with JP
Morgan and Deutsche Bank strongly represented among the suicides
bankers.

During the 1930s Great Depression, bankers jumping to their deaths was
frequently a subject of black humor. ("Did you hear about the two
bankers who booked a double hotel room so that they could commit
suicide together?")

Today, it appears that there are just as many banker suicides. At
times like this, it's worthwhile reviewing the history of how we got
to this point.

Generation-X grew up in the 1980s often without fathers. They lived
in mother-only homes, thanks to policies advocated by feminists
telling mothers to dump the father and then lie in court about
domestic violence in order to get large child support payments. 30%
of whites and 72% of blacks grew up in homes with no fathers except
for a string of men in their mothers' beds. These kids grew up hating
their fathers and their mothers' boyfriends and the entire Boomer
generation. Inner city blacks in Chicago and elsewhere who kill each
other for sport are often from these fatherless families, which is not
surprising.

The elite white kids expressed their hatred differently. Many got
master's degrees in financial engineering in the 1990s, and then used
their skills to knowingly sell trillions of dollars' worth of
fraudulent subprime mortgage backed securities to the hated Boomer
investors, creating the real estate and credit bubbles that resulted
in the financial crisis, which today is far from over. Since the
Obama administration has refused to punish these Gen-X criminals,
they've remained in the same jobs, defrauding people in other ways, as
I've described many times. Many of the bankers who have committed
suicide are guilty of or suspected of being guilty of other kinds of
fraud.

So given the recent history of banking, it's perhaps not too
surprising that many bankers are committing suicide. These are
criminals whose past is finally catching up with them. New York Post and Jerusalem Post and MMNews (Germany) (Trans)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Tripoli, Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Jordan, Sabra, Shatila,
Thierry Leyne, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Calogero Gambino, Deutsche, JP Morgan,
William Broeksmit

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With deflation looming and the viable customer base for banks peaking either now or certainly during the next 5 - 10 years, it is no surprise to me that certain bankers who don't have a good way to start a second career are ending their lives. If I were in banking now, I would be planning on losing my job during the next 5 years with no prospects for any future employment after that point. I would be especially worried if I were in a more senior role and over 40.

*** 28-Oct-14 World View -- Poland to move thousands of troops east in reaction to Russian threat

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel announces plans for 1000 new settlements in East Jerusalem
• Poland to move thousands of troops east in reaction to Russian threat

****
**** Israel announces plans for 1000 new settlements in East Jerusalem
****


A view of Jerusalem (Reuters)

In an announcement that's generating strong emotions on all sides,
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved planning for 1,000
new settlement home units in East Jerusalem. According to Israeli
media, the decision was forced on Netanyahu leaders in the
ultra-nationalist Jewish Home party, which is part of his governing
coalition, who are demanding an end to the "Obama building freeze."
However, it was only a planning announcement, with no pledge to
actually erect the units.

Palestinian Authority executive Dr. Hanan Ashrawi condemned the
Netanyahu's announcement, saying that it "exposes the true nature of
this blatantly racist and extremist Israeli coalition."

East Jerusalem has been the epicenter of increasing clashes between
Palestinians and Israelis ever since the bodies of three Israeli
teenage settlers were found weeks after tney were abducted by
terrorists that Israelis believe were commissioned by Hamas.

East Jerusalem has been the epicenter of increasing clashes between
Palestinians and Israelis that were triggered by the abduction of
three Israeli teenagers on June 10. They were the subject of an
extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of
Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel was
shocked three weeks later, when the teens were found dead in a pit in
the West Bank. There followed a spiral of violence that led to the
Gaza war in July and August. There have been continuing clashes in
the region around Jerusalem, and it's feared that this new announcement
will trigger even more. Israel National News and International Middle East Media Center (Gaza) and Reuters

****
**** Poland to move thousands of troops east in reaction to Russian threat
****

Because of the threats to Poland posed by Russia's invasion of
Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, Poland is moving
thousands of troops to military bases along its eastern
borders, in what is being called a historic realignment of the army.

According to Polands defense minister Tomasz Siemoniak:

<QUOTE>"The geopolitical situation has changed. We have the
biggest crisis of security since the Cold War and we must draw
conclusions from that."<END QUOTE>

After World War II, Poland was a member of the Soviet bloc, and it's
army was based along the country's western border, to defend a
possible invasion from Europe. After the Soviet Union collapsed,
Poland joined Nato in 1999, but today most most of Poland’s
120,000-member army is still based in the west. The move to the east
is the first major realignment since the end of WW II. Washington Post and Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Jewish Home, East Jerusalem, Hamas, Hanan Ashrawi,
Poland, Tomasz Siemoniak, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea

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