Will Poland go nuclear? The question needs to be asked. Currently, the official policy is, all centrifuges are mothballed. I have never seen a definitive statement they have been dismantled. I cannot blame them. If it were up to me, the centrifuges would be running 24 x 7 x 365.Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
The Iranians and the Russians would totally freak out if that happened.
29-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt begins evacuating Sinai residents on Gaza border
*** 29-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt begins evacuating Sinai residents on Gaza border
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Egypt begins evacuating Sinai residents on Gaza border
- Iraqi Kurdish fighters to enter Kobani, Syria, from Turkey
- Turkey explains why they won't send troops into Kobani
****
**** Egypt begins evacuating Sinai residents on Gaza border
****
Tunnel underneath wall separating Gaza and Egypt (AP)
Following on the car bomb that killed 33 Egyptian troops in Sinai last
Friday, which Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi said in a
nationally televised speech was an existential threat to Egypt, Egypt
is now beginning to evacuate residents of Sinai along the border with
Gaza near the Rafah crossing, in order to create a buffer zone.
Several readers wrote to me regarding the article I wrote on Friday's
attack. ( "26-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai"
) They said that although the article was accurate, the
headline was misleading in that the state of emergency did not apply
to all of Egypt, but only to parts of the Sinai peninsula.
Al-Sisi has blamed Hamas for supporting the attack, and has ordered
the creation of a 500 meter buffer zone along the border with Gaza, to
prevent the smuggling of weapons. The buffer zone will eventually
stretch along the full 8 mile length of the border. Residents living
in homes along the border are being forced to evacuate so that their
homes can be demolished. Over 800 houses and 10,000 residents
may be affected.
For years, Egypt has been destroying tunnels that are used to
smuggle weapons and terrorists underneath the walls separating
Gaza from Egypt. This has been a somewhat futile effort, since
Hamas quickly rebuilds tunnels after they're destroyed.
In an effort to end the building of tunnels once and for all, Egypt's
army intends to dig a deep trench along the Gaza border, and fill it
with water. The trench will be 500 meters deep along the entire Gaza
border, but will be as much as three km deep in the final stage.
Update: The Jerusalem Post article has been updated to indicate
that the trench will be 500 meters wide, as much as three km wide in
the final stage.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and
Jerusalem Post
****
**** Iraqi Kurdish fighters to enter Kobani, Syria, from Turkey
****
Apparently final agreement has been reached for Turkey to permit 161
Iraqi Kurdish fighters (Peshmerga) to enter Turkish soil from Iraq and
then cross the border into Kobani, Syria, later this week.
Kobani has become one of the major symbols of the rise of the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), in that the United
States coalition has been using air strikes to prevent ISIS from
overrunning Kobani, and this has energized ISIS to pour more troops
into the battle in order to humiliate the United States. CNN
****
**** Turkey explains why they won't send troops into Kobani
****
Turkey has been under a great deal of international pressure
to send troops into Kobani, across the border in Syria, to
save the Kurdish population from extermination by the
the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).
Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu gave a very interesting
interview on the BBC on Tuesday on Kobani and on Turkey's position on
numerous issues. Davutoglu speaks English, and the following excerpts
are my own transcription, with a little bit of editing for clarity:
<QUOTE>"Saving Kobani has been the main slogan the main
message of the international community for last 2 months, but we
have to define what means saving Kobani.
If saving Kobani means saving civilians living in Kobani, you're
well aware that people of Kobani already came to Turkey [as
refugees], and they're under safe conditions.
But if saving Kobani is retaking Kobani and some area around
Kobani, from ISIS, then there's a need of a military operation.
Who will be doing this military operation? This is the question
that I was really surprised and shocked when some international
media accusing Turkey or expecting Turkey to do something, should
define what Turkey should do. If Turkish military intervenes
Kobani, I am sure many of these media or international parties
will criticize Turkey for intervening in another
country.
The only way to help Kobani, since other countries don't want to
use ground troops is sending some peace oriented or moderate
forces to Kobani. What are they? Peshmerga [Kurdish militia in
Iraq]. The Peshmerga is part of the Iraqi army, constitutionally
they are part of the Iraqi army, and the Free Syrian Army. So
when the Free Syrian Army and Peshmerga said that they're ready to
go, we said yes. But if other countries, Americans, Europeans,
want to send their troops, Turkey never said no."<END QUOTE>
Davutoglu was reminded that the Americans and the Europeans have
repeatedly said that they would not send in ground troops to Kobani.
<QUOTE>"Well, if they don't want to send their ground troops,
how can they expect Turkey to send Turkish ground troops with the
same risks on our border? So the question is here: is it easy to
accuse, to say something against another country.
But they have to make empathy, and they should ask, what can we
do, and what can we expect from Turkey to do? Nobody can accuse
Turkey or blame Turkey for the situation in Kobani."<END QUOTE>
Two weeks ago, American vice president Joe Biden was forced to
apologize to Turkey, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates after
accusing them of having funded ISIS and contributing to its rise. The
interviewer reminded Davutoglu of that, and said that even Jordanian
and Egyptian intelligence officials have accused Turkey of the same
thing. Davutoglu firmly denied this:
<QUOTE>"You mentioned some intelligence services - they
cannot claim this - there is no evidence that Turkey has any link,
any cooperation, any support to these type of groups.
It is up to Turkey - it is on our border - and Turkey declared
ISIS as a terrorist organization last year in Oct 2013 - when
these countries didn't do so for many months, and they are also
not fighting against them. Turkey is fighting.
Only Turkey has bombarded ISIS troops in December 2013. And
several hundreds of them were killed when they approached the
Turkish border."<END QUOTE>
Next, Davutoglu was reminded that Turkey is accused of allowing
foreign fighters and jihadis to come to Turkey and then cross
the border into Syria to join ISIS. Even Turkish fighters
have done this.
<QUOTE>"Turkish fighters on the ground who went there
illegally are [far fewer] than British fighters. Much less.
I spoke with my colleagues two years ago, on how to prevent these
foreign fighters [from going] in, and I asked them to stop these
people [from leaving] their countries like Britain to come to
Turkey. They said we're a democratic country, so how can we stop
them? I told them, then, then please give us the names, so that
we can prevent them from coming into Turkey.
They said we cannot give the names unless they've committed a
crime. Then I said, how can you expect Turkey to stop them, when
Turkey receives 35 million tourists every year. We cannot make
such a check.
So fighting against this type of flow is the combined effort of
all the concerned parties. Nobody can expect from us to stop
tourism or coming foreign people inside Turkey, and check them
whether their name are Muslim names, and so forth."<END QUOTE>
Finally, Davutoglu was given an opportunity to talk about the
refugee situation. Lebanon has announced that they will no
longer accept refugees, and Davutoglu was asked whether Turkey
will adopt the same policy:
<QUOTE>"Thank you very much for this question. Nobody is
looking at refugee crisis, this humanitarian crisis. We have now
around 1.6 million [refugees in Turkey, but this is approaching
almost 2 million after the Kobani cases.
Yesterday I was in a town, not a border town, and there are 56,000
Syrians living there, not only in camps, but also in the cities.
In some other cities, the Syrians outnumber the Turkish citizens
who are living there. We have been taking a huge responsibility,
and huge risk receiving Syrian refugees, and we spent 4.5 billion
until now, and it is increasing every day, and nobody is helping
us. I have to make very clear- UNHCR and others are doing their
efforts, but altogether around 200 million. Very minimal.
And I understand very well the Lebanese situation, because it is
affecting the Lebanese social political demography altogether.
[But we would not do the same] in Turkey because of our historic
relations.
We've always said, not only in Syrian case. When Kurds were
massacred by Saddam, we opened our border. When Bosniaks were
massacred by [Slobodan] Milosevic we opened our border. ...
So this is the historic tradition that our border has been open
for people, for victims, and it is against our tradition to close
our door.
But we will insist to have safe havens on the other side of the
border, so that Syrian people will stay in Syria, rather than to
come into Turkey. Therefore , we have a long-term vision, and we
can see the consequence of any policy if Aleppo is being taken, or
is being bombarded by Syrian regime like today, millions of
Syrians may come. at that time of course, we have to take certain
measures - how to keep them on Syrian side."<END QUOTE>
The final remarks refer to Turkey's proposal to create a protected
border strip within Syria where Syrian refugees can go rather than
Turkey. BBC
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Sinai, Gaza, Hamas,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey, Kobani, Kurds, Iraq, Peshmerga, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 10-29-2014 at 12:43 PM.
RE: The trench will be 500 meters deep along the entire Gaza
border, but will be as much as three km deep in the final stage.
I have to call BS on this one. Digging even a 50M trench would be a substantial undertaking. Heck, even a 5M one is pretty major. One of the more impressive things I've seen personally was the Welland Canal (ON, CAN). That benefited from dense metamorphic rock, enhancing stability. If I am not mistaken, the deepest trench dug was the Corinth Canal. None of these are even close to 500M in depth.
The Jerusalem Post article has been updated to indicate
that the trench will be 500 meters wide, as much as three km wide in
the final stage.
30-Oct-14 World View -- World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline'
*** 30-Oct-14 World View -- World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline'
- Unanswered questions about the spread of Ebola
- Comparing the Ebola location maps
****
**** World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline'
****
World Health Organization (WHO) assistant director Bruce Aylward said
that "We're seeing a reversal of that rapid rate of increase to the
point that there seems to be a decline right now."
He added, "Getting a slight decrease in the number of cases on a
day-to-day basis, versus getting this thing closed out, is a
completely different ball game." This is a highly ambiguous
statement. It could mean that the total number of case is declining,
meaning the number of new cases is now smaller than the number of
people who are recovering or dying. Or it could mean that the number
of NEW cases has declined, which would mean that the number of new
cases is no longer growing exponentially, but has leveled off.
Or it could mean that the number of new cases is still growing
exponentially, but at a smaller exponential rate.
The figures that I derived from the WHO situation reports (see
the next item, below) seems to indicate this latter interpretation.
A couple of months ago I was hearing that the number of Ebola
cases doubled every 3 weeks. The figures I derived indicate that
the number doubles every 4.7 weeks which is exponential growth
at a slower rate.
A couple of weeks ago I wrote "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"
. I identified several continuing risks about
Ebola -- that there could easily be new outbreaks anywhere in the
world in megacities, slums and war zones. None of that is changed by
Aylward's statement, and I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't disagree
with me. Reuters
****
**** Unanswered questions about the spread of Ebola
****
There has been very little Ebola spread out of the three
countries in West Africa. This has led me to wonder if perhaps
I was missing something.
The World Health Organization publishes Ebola Situation Reports
every few days.
I went to the most recent situation report (PDF), dated October 25, 2014. The
following table depicts the total numbers of infections and deaths:
Code:+---------------+--------------+--------- + | Country | # infections | # deaths | +---------------+--------------+--------- + | Guinea | 1553 | 926 | | Liberia | 4665 | 2705 | | Sierra Leone | 3896 | 1281 | | Mali | 1 | 1 | | Nigeria | 20 | 8 | | Senegal | 1 | 0 | | Spain | 1 | 0 | | U.S. | 4 | 1 | +---------------+--------------+--------- + | Total | 10141 | 4922 | +---------------+--------------+--------- +
IT seems strange that the only large numbers of cases are in the
original countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), and that the only
cases outside of Africa were in Spain and U.S. It doesn't make sense
to me that Ebola hasn't spread to other countries in Africa, and that
there haven't been individual cases in other countries in Europe or
Asia or Latin America.
****
**** Comparing the Ebola location maps
****
So, in order to do further analysis, I went back WHO's original
original situation report (PDF), dated August 29, 2014, and I
compared some of the numbers in the two reports, in order to
get an estimate of the growth rate in the number of cases.
If you take the total number of infections -- 3052 on August 29, and
10141 on October 25 -- and do a computation, then you get that the
number of infections doubles every 4.7 weeks, which is a little more
than a month (4.25 weeks per month).
If you apply this rate to the number of infections, you get 40K by Jan
1, 80K by Feb 1, 160K by Mar 1, and so forth. But can that doubling
rate be sustained? The WHO announcement that the outbreak is "in
decline" would seem to indicate that it can't be sustained.
So next, I extracted the Ebola location maps from the two reports.
Here's the August 29, 2014, map:
Ebola location map, 29-Aug-2014 (WHO)
Here's the October 25, 2014, map:
Ebola location map, 25-Oct-2014 (WHO)
Comparing these two maps, you can see that most infections were in the
west, but they've apparently been moving eastward, apparently stopping
at the borders of Mali and Côte d'Ivoire. This is not credible.
These country borders are porous, and tribal boundaries do not
correspond to national boundaries. It's not credible that the spread
of Ebola has stopped dead at these country borders.
We recently had the news story of the two year old infected baby who
was carried on a bus all the way from Liberia to the western border of
Mali almost to the eastern border, with multiple stops, including a
two-hour stop in Bamako. Other than the death of the 2 yo, we haven't
heard anything more about Ebola in Mali. ( "25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola"
)
At least a few cases of Ebola must surely have spread into these Mali
and Côte d'Ivoire, on the border with Liberia, without our being aware
of it. If this is true -- and I don't see how it could not be true --
then there must be unreported cases in these countries.
If there are individual cases in the U.S. and Spain, then there must
be unreported individual cases in other countries. Consider
the following:
- Cuba has sent hundreds of medical professionals to West
Africa.- China has thousands of workers in the region.
If there have been Ebola cases in the U.S. and Spain, it's hard to
believe that Cuba and China would be immune to Ebola cases. What's
different about Cuba and China is that if either has an outbreak of
Ebola in either country, it would be covered up and we'd never know,
until the outbreak became extremely serious. (This is what happened
in China with the SARS outbreak ten years ago.)
There are plenty of people, including migrant workers, who go back and
forth between Africa and their home countries, including Asia and
Latin America. Some countries are so undeveloped that officials might
not even know there's an Ebola outbreak until it had spread for
several days.
So there are a lot of unanswered questions about what's going on.
There must be or will be many unreported cases of Ebola, in West
Africa and elsewhere; it's not credible to believe otherwise.
Finally, returning to the question of whether the Ebola outbreak is
"in decline," one possibility is that it's really in decline, and
another possibility is that the only thing that's declining is the
number of reporting cases, with sharp increases in the number of
unreported cases. We should have definite answers by the end of the
year. WHO Ebola Situation Reports
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World Health Organization, WHO,
Bruce Aylward, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Spain,
Cuba, China
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Was it a test of weaponized Ebola? A test run in an out of the way place. Now who would ever do that sort of thing? Start with the short list of countries breaking the bioweopons treaties (or that never signed the treaties).****
**** Unanswered questions about the spread of Ebola
****
There has been very little Ebola spread out of the three
countries in West Africa. This has led me to wonder if perhaps
I was missing something.
The World Health Organization publishes Ebola Situation Reports
every few days.
I went to the most recent situation report (PDF), dated October 25, 2014. The
following table depicts the total numbers of infections and deaths:
Code:+---------------+--------------+--------- + | Country | # infections | # deaths | +---------------+--------------+--------- + | Guinea | 1553 | 926 | | Liberia | 4665 | 2705 | | Sierra Leone | 3896 | 1281 | | Mali | 1 | 1 | | Nigeria | 20 | 8 | | Senegal | 1 | 0 | | Spain | 1 | 0 | | U.S. | 4 | 1 | +---------------+--------------+--------- + | Total | 10141 | 4922 | +---------------+--------------+--------- +
IT seems strange that the only large numbers of cases are in the
original countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), and that the only
cases outside of Africa were in Spain and U.S. It doesn't make sense
to me that Ebola hasn't spread to other countries in Africa, and that
there haven't been individual cases in other countries in Europe or
Asia or Latin America.
****
**** Comparing the Ebola location maps
****
So, in order to do further analysis, I went back WHO's original
original situation report (PDF), dated August 29, 2014, and I
compared some of the numbers in the two reports, in order to
get an estimate of the growth rate in the number of cases.
If you take the total number of infections -- 3052 on August 29, and
10141 on October 25 -- and do a computation, then you get that the
number of infections doubles every 4.7 weeks, which is a little more
than a month (4.25 weeks per month).
If you apply this rate to the number of infections, you get 40K by Jan
1, 80K by Feb 1, 160K by Mar 1, and so forth. But can that doubling
rate be sustained? The WHO announcement that the outbreak is "in
decline" would seem to indicate that it can't be sustained.
So next, I extracted the Ebola location maps from the two reports.
Here's the August 29, 2014, map:
Ebola location map, 29-Aug-2014 (WHO)
Here's the October 25, 2014, map:
Ebola location map, 25-Oct-2014 (WHO)
Comparing these two maps, you can see that most infections were in the
west, but they've apparently been moving eastward, apparently stopping
at the borders of Mali and Côte d'Ivoire. This is not credible.
These country borders are porous, and tribal boundaries do not
correspond to national boundaries. It's not credible that the spread
of Ebola has stopped dead at these country borders.
We recently had the news story of the two year old infected baby who
was carried on a bus all the way from Liberia to the western border of
Mali almost to the eastern border, with multiple stops, including a
two-hour stop in Bamako. Other than the death of the 2 yo, we haven't
heard anything more about Ebola in Mali. ( "25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola"
)
At least a few cases of Ebola must surely have spread into these Mali
and Côte d'Ivoire, on the border with Liberia, without our being aware
of it. If this is true -- and I don't see how it could not be true --
then there must be unreported cases in these countries.
If there are individual cases in the U.S. and Spain, then there must
be unreported individual cases in other countries. Consider
the following:
- Cuba has sent hundreds of medical professionals to West
Africa.- China has thousands of workers in the region.
If there have been Ebola cases in the U.S. and Spain, it's hard to
believe that Cuba and China would be immune to Ebola cases. What's
different about Cuba and China is that if either has an outbreak of
Ebola in either country, it would be covered up and we'd never know,
until the outbreak became extremely serious. (This is what happened
in China with the SARS outbreak ten years ago.)
There are plenty of people, including migrant workers, who go back and
forth between Africa and their home countries, including Asia and
Latin America. Some countries are so undeveloped that officials might
not even know there's an Ebola outbreak until it had spread for
several days.
So there are a lot of unanswered questions about what's going on.
There must be or will be many unreported cases of Ebola, in West
Africa and elsewhere; it's not credible to believe otherwise.
Finally, returning to the question of whether the Ebola outbreak is
"in decline," one possibility is that it's really in decline, and
another possibility is that the only thing that's declining is the
number of reporting cases, with sharp increases in the number of
unreported cases. We should have definite answers by the end of the
year. WHO Ebola Situation Reports
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World Health Organization, WHO,
Bruce Aylward, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Spain,
Cuba, China
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31-Oct-14 World View -- Palestinians accuse Israel of 'declaration of war' as tension
*** 31-Oct-14 World View -- Palestinians accuse Israel of 'declaration of war' as tensions mount in Jerusalem
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Palestinians accuse Israel of 'declaration of war' as tensions mount in Jerusalem
- U.S. foreign policy in further chaos as Israel's Netanyahu is slammed
****
**** Palestinians accuse Israel of 'declaration of war' as tensions mount in Jerusalem
****
Dome of the Rock in the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in East Jerusalem (AFP)
Tensions are rising sharply in Jerusalem after the Israeli government
shut down all access, for the first time since 2000, to the Al Aqsa
Mosque compound in Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam,
following Mecca and Medina. The Palestinian Authority (PA) president
Mahmoud Abbas said that the move was "tantamount to a declaration of
war."
Events have been moving quickly this week, following the announcement
earlier this week on Tuesday by Israel's prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu that Israel would plan for 1000 new settlements in East
Jerusalem. There have been clashes between Palestinian activists and
Israeli security forces.
The same site is also known as Temple Mount, and is the holiest site
in the Jewish religion, because it's believed that buried underneath
the Mosque are the remains of the Temple at Jerusalem. In 66 AD, the
Jews in Judea began a rebellion against their Roman colonizers. The
Romans massacred tens of thousands of Jews and destroyed the city of
Jerusalem including, in 70 AD, the Temple at Jerusalem.
In 2000, then-prime minister Ariel Sharon went to Temple Mount and
prayed there, infuriating the Palestinians, and triggering the "second
intifada," the Palestinian uprising against the Israelis that lasted
until 2005. A compromise was devised that would permit Jews to visit
Temple Mount as tourists, but not to pray there.
So on Wednesday morning, a Palestinian activist shot and wounded Rabbi
Yehuda Glick, an American citizen, who was leading a group of
advocates to permit Jews to pray at Temple Mount again.
On Thursday morning, Israeli police stormed the home of Mutaz Hijazi,
33, the Palestinian activist accused of the attempted assassination of
Glick. A gunfight ensued, during which Hijazi was shot and killed.
The shooting triggered fresh clashes in East Jerusalem, and prompted
Gaza militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad to call on Palestinians
to begin a "third intifada."
The increasing violence prompted Israeli officials to close Temple
Mount and the Al Aqsa mosque compound to everyone, Jews and Muslims
alike. That act has triggered more violence, and triggered Abbas's
claim that it was a "declaration of war."
Mustafa Barghouti, a senior Palestinian Authority official, issued a
press release announcing that a third intifada was underway, and, in
anticipation of the Muslim prayers on Friday, calling on the
"Palestinian people as a whole to defend the Al Aqsa Mosque, the
dignity of the Palestinian people, and their freedom."
Hoping to quell further violence on Friday, Israel has announced that
Muslims will be permitted to return to the Al Aqsa Mosque on Friday
prayers. However, only men over age 50 will be permitted to enter.
Whether this will reduce the level of violence remains to be seen.
East Jerusalem has been the epicenter of increasing clashes between
Palestinians and Israelis ever since the bodies of three Israeli
teenage settlers were found weeks after they were abducted on June 10
by terrorists that Israelis believe were commissioned by Hamas. They
were the subject of an extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank,
during which hundreds of Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were
arrested. Israel was shocked three weeks later, when the teens were
found dead in a pit in the West Bank. There followed a spiral of
violence that led to the Gaza war in July and August, and continuing
clashes since then around Jerusalem. The National (UAE) and CS Monitor and Jerusalem Post and Jewish Telegraphic Agency
****
**** U.S. foreign policy in further chaos as Israel's Netanyahu is slammed
****
President Barack Obama and Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
viscerally hate each other -- this is well known. Also well-known is
that the entire U.S. administration is bitterly hostile to Netanyahu,
blaming him for all the ills in the Mideast.
Obama and John Kerry have had a foreign policy characterized by one
humiliating failure after another. One of the recent disasters
occurred in late July when Kerry submitted a 'peace proposal' for the Gaza War
that met all the
demands and talking points of Hamas (ending the "siege"), but did not
address any of the security concerns of Israel (disarming Hamas). The
proposal was so ridiculous that it made Obama and Kerry even more
irrelevant in the Mideast than they already were.
And now anonymous administration officials are being credibly quoted
as calling Netanyahu both "a chickenshit" and "a coward." The US
administration have made themselves completely irrelevant in the
Mideast. Since they're completely irrelevant anyway, why can't they
just shut up? The Atlantic and LA Times
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, East Jerusalem,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Al Aqsa Mosque, Temple Mount, Temple at Jerusalem,
Ariel Sharon, Yehuda Glick, Mutaz Hijazi,
Mustafa Barghouti, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, John Kerry
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1-Nov-14 World View -- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown
*** 1-Nov-14 World View -- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown
- U.N. report says that jihadists are flooding into Syria
****
**** Burkina Faso, critical U.S. ally, in government meltdown
****
Burkina Faso is a strategically located U.S. ally
After several days of violent anti-government protests, including
burning down the parliament and several government buildings in the
capital city Ouagadougou, protesters are cheering euphorically
following the announcement that president Blaise Compaoré finally
agreed to step down after 27 years in power.
Compaoré issued a statement:
<QUOTE>"In order to preserve the democratic gains, as well as
social peace, I declare a power vacuum to allow the establishment
of a transition leading to free and fair elections within a
maximum of 90 days. For my part, I think I have fulfilled my
duty."<END QUOTE>
Compaoré's whereabouts are unknown. Since there's no clear-cut
constitutional successor, army chief Gen. Honoré Nabéré Traoré
announced that he would take power. There are suspicions that the
army may have engineered the resignation so that the army could take
power.
Burkina Faso is an important U.S. ally, hosting a U.S. base in
Ouagadougou, operating since 2007, which serves as a hub for a U.S
spying network in the region, with spy planes departing from the base
to fly over Mali, Mauritania and the Sahara, tracking fighters from
the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
What triggered the riots was the plan by Compaoré to amend Burkina
Faso's constitution so that he could continue in power past the
current term limit date of 2015. It's thought that Compaoré's ouster
will serve as a warning to Africa's other military leaders who have
stayed in power for decades, and who are also considering revising the
constitution. These include Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial
Guinea, José Eduardo dos Santos, president of Angola, Paul Biya,
president of Cameroon, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, and Robert Mugabe of
Zimbabwe, all of whom have been power since the 1980s.
Note: If any reader is familiar with the history of Burkina Faso and
can help me identify the major tribal wars (generational crisis wars)
of the last century or two, I would appreciate the help.
ABC News and Washington Post and Nigerian Guardian News
****
**** U.N. report says that jihadists are flooding into Syria
****
According to a new United Nations report, foreign jihadists are
flooding into Syria and Iraq to join jihadist terror groups at the
rate of over 1,000 per month, which about 15,000 there already.
They're arriving from over 80 countries around the world, and they're
joining the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and
the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), as well as other
al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups.
As I wrote a couple of weeks ago ( "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"
), my view is that the Syria/Iraq conflicts have
passed the point of no return, and that they will not be settled
before they spiral into a larger regional war between Sunni and Shia
Muslims. This is in contrast to other brief Mideast wars of
the past few years, such as the recent Israeli-Hamas war in
Gaza.
As I've been writing for two years, the reason that Sunni jihadists
are flooding into Syria is that Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar
al-Assad has flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy
weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and
bedrooms, he's killed dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless
more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine
gas. In addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging,
strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of
prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and does with
complete impunity, and in fact with encouragement and support from
Russia and Iran.
Also to blame is Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who has been
supplying al-Assad with the heavy weapons he needs to continue
his genocide of the Sunni civilians. This makes Putin a war
criminal.
However, many analysts are blaming U.S. president Barack Obama
for the rise of ISIS. According to these analysts, the Obama
administration made three fundamental mistakes:
- The withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq without
leaving a smaller force behind, thus throwing away all the gains
that Americans had fought for in the Iraq war.- The lack of a major effort to supply arms to Syria's moderate
anti-Assad rebels, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA).- The damage to U.S. credibility by setting a "red line" for
al-Assad on the use of chemical weapons, and then humiliatingly
backing down when al-Assad used sarin gas on his own people. Al-Assad
continues to use chemical weapons to this day -- chlorine gas is
packed into barrel bombs along with metals and explosives.
Guardian (London) and Reuters and The National (UAE)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré, Ouagadougou,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front
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2-Nov-14 World View -- Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government
*** 2-Nov-14 World View -- Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- ISIS slaughters hundreds from the Abu Nimr tribe in Iraq
- Wall Street posts hyperbolic five day surge
- Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married
****
**** ISIS slaughters hundreds from the Abu Nimr tribe in Iraq
****
Iraqi security forces guard a checkpoint in Ramadi, Anbar province. (Reuters)
As the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL)
continues to close in on Baghdad Iraq, in recent weeks they've been
specially targeting the Abu Nimr tribe. Reports during the last week
indicate that hundreds of tribe members have been abducted and killed
in a mass slaughter. It's not known how many more of the 10,000 Abu
Nimr people have also been killed.
Abu Nimr is a Sunni tribe that developed a reputation for having stood
up to Saddam Hussein. In the years after the 2003 Iraq war, Abu Nimr
was one of the few Sunni tribes to fight against Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Later, during the "Anbar Awakening" and the American troop "surge,"
Abu Nimr worked with the Americans to expel the Sunni terrorists.
Recently, Abu Nimr has been one of the few Sunni tribes fighting ISIS,
but they've been running out of ammunition, and Baghdad has refused to
resupply them, because the Shia government fears that the Sunni tribes
will turn against them later.
ISIS has been changing its tactics since the American-led bombing
raids have begun. ISIS took control of much of Iraq by means of large
sweeping operations. But because of the bombings, ISIS fighters now
travel in small convoys, and try to stay out of side by hiding in
villages. ISIS depends for its success on the cooperation of Sunni
tribes in Anbar province, but Abu Nimr was one of the holdouts.
Guardian (London) and CNN and Musings on Iraq
****
**** Wall Street posts hyperbolic five day surge
****
Wall Street stocks surged hyperbolically again last week, with the Dow
increasing by almost 600 points, and the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index
(stock valuations) once again approaching the astronomically high
value of 19, putting the stock market into an enormous bubble. The
historical average for the P/E ratio is 14, and every 30 years or so
it falls to the range 5-6, which is where it was last in 1982. A fall
in the P/E ratio to 5-6 again will push the Dow down below 3000.
Friday's surge particularly was apparently caused by a shock
announcement by the Bank of Japan that they would start a new massive
"money-printing" program in the form of quantitative easing, similar
to the program that the American Federal Reserve has been pursuing.
It's widely believed that the Fed's QE program, which ran as high as
$85 billion per month, just pumped money into the stock market,
benefiting the rich people and the Washington elites, without
improving the income of ordinary people.
It's now assumed that the BOJ's new QE program will have the
same effect.
However, the surprise BOJ announcement was a shock to individual
investors who been expecting a further dive, and had a portfolio of
short sales (essentially betting that the stock share prices would
continue to fall). According to stock market guru Art Cashin:
<QUOTE>"And anybody who was bearish, is now scrambling to
cover. ... What we're seeing is a massive global short-covering.
That's why stocks are rallying."<END QUOTE>
Cashin added that short-covering rallies seldom last long. However,
other analysts point out that the European Central Bank may make a
similar announcement soon, pushing the stock market bubble even more
enormous.
Generational Dynamics predicts that, like all bubbles, this bubble
will burst, in the context of a global stock market panic and
financial crisis, pushing the Dow back down to the 3000 level.
CNBC and Reuters
****
**** Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married
****
Few really believed the Nigerian government claim on October 17 that
they had struck a deal with Boko Haram to release the 219 schoolgirls
abducted on April 16 from the town of Chibok. ( "18-Oct-14 World View -- Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls"
).
But now Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau has appeared in a video that
mocks and ridicules the government, saying that that the girls have
been converted to Islam and have all been married off. The video is a
double humiliation for Nigeria's government because it had claimed the
Shekau had been killed by the army.
Excerpts from the transcript translation of Shekau are as follows:
<QUOTE>"Without wasting time, we hereby send a message to the
tyrants of Nigeria and other infidels as well as their world
tyrants as a whole in Hausa language.
You people should understand that we only obey Allah, we tread the
path of the Prophet. We hope to die on this path and get eternal
rest in our graves, rise up in bliss before our Lord and enter
Paradise (quotes from the Koran). Our goal is the Garden of
Eternal Bliss. May Allah protect us. ...
Therefore I tell you (that) we have not made ceasefire with
anyone. Only battle, hitting, striking and killing with gun which
we long for like tasty meal. This what we believe in and fight
for. ...
When did we release Chibok schoolgirls that we seized, those that
Shekau who is now talking, seized, brought them and kept them in
the place he chose for more than six months now. ...
Surprisingly, if the women of Chibok, I mean the mothers of the
Chibok schoolgirls and their fathers, if you know the condition
your daughters are in today it could lead some to convert to Islam
and some to die from grief.
Don’t you know the over 200 Chibok schoolgirls have converted to
Islam? They have now memorised two chapters of the Koran. They
have seen themselves in the Books of Luke and John that Christians
have corrupted the Bible. Girls from Chibok confessing Islam is
the true religion! A six-grader, liars.
We married them off. They are in their marital homes. (Laughter)
...
What is negotiation? We did not negotiate with anyone. It is a
lie. It is a lie. We will not negotiate. What is our business with
negotiation? Allah said we should not."<END QUOTE>
Premium Times (Nigeria) and Independent (London)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Abu Nimr, Baghdad, Saddam Hussein,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Anbar Awakening, Bank of Japan, quantitative easing,
Art Cashin, European Central Bank, price/earnings ratio,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau
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3-Nov-14 World View - Multiple Taliban groups claim credit for suicide bombing in Pak
*** 3-Nov-14 World View -- Multiple Taliban groups claim credit for suicide bombing in Pakistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Multiple Taliban groups claim credit for suicide bombing in Pakistan
- Abu Nimr tribes blames Iraq government for massacre by ISIS
- Journalist finds young Iranians very friendly to America
****
**** Multiple Taliban groups claim credit for suicide bombing in Pakistan
****
Flag-lowering ceremony at the Wagah border crossing between India and Pakistan
At least 45 people were killed and over 120 injured on Sunday when a
suicide bomber blew himself up at the Wagah Pakistan border crossing
to India, near Lahore. The suicide bomber walked past four check
posts. When he was finally stopped at a check post, he blew himself
up. Some reports indicate that a gas cylinder exploded.
Wagah is the only border crossing between India and Pakistan. The
crossing closes every day at sundown, at which time there's a very
colorful flag-lowering ceremony in which both Indian and Pakistani
rangers participate. Hundreds of people, including families with
women and children gather on both sides of the border to see the
display of military pageantry. The suicide bomb was timed to explode
when crowds of people on the Pakistan side were leaving the ceremony,
heading for the parking lot. No Indians were injured.
The Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) has been an umbrella
organization for numerous terror groups in Pakistan. As we've
reported many times, the TTP has been disintegrating, as a number of
groups have declared independence, and some have even deserted
al-Qaeda, and have declared allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). ( "6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support"
)
The disintegration was on display on Sunday, as three different
groups claimed responsibility for the Wagah bombing. One
TTP faction said they carried it out to avenge the killing
of a Taliban leader in a U.S. drone strike last year.
The Jamat-ul-Ahrar faction, which broke away from the main TTP
leadership in September, said THEY were responsible, to
avenge the ongoing Pakistan army military action against
the Taliban on the border with Afghanistan at the opposite
end of Pakistan from Lahore. A third militant faction,
Jundullah, has also claimed credit.
There is certain to be a major political backlash because of Sunday's
bombing. According to reports, intelligence sources had intercepted
intelligence about a possible attack at the Wagah border crossing, and
they had issued an alert on Saturday to Wagah border authorities.
Security at the Wagah border had been increased, but that was not
enough to avert the attack. The News (Pakistan) and Samaa TV (Pakistan)
****
**** Abu Nimr tribes blames Iraq government for massacre by ISIS
****
As we reported yesterday,
the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) has been
specially targeting the Abu Nimr tribe, one of the few Sunni tribes
that have been actively fighting against the ISIS as it approaches
Baghdad. Mass killings have killed 322 members of Abu Nimr. More
than 50 bodies were found in a water well, while 65 members have been
kidnapped, and are being held as hostages. The latest attack occurred
on Sunday morning, when at least 50 were killed.
Now Abu Nimr leaders are claiming that the Shia government in Baghdad
encouraged them to fight ISIS, promised them weapons that never came,
and then left them to be massacred. They are claiming that they
provided coordinates for U.S. air strikes, but they were ignored.
This experience may affect the American strategy. The planned
strategy of the Obama administration is to repeat the success of the
Bush administration "surge," when the army got cooperation from Sunni
tribes, including Abu Nimr, to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq. ISIS will use
the Abu Nimr massacre to convince other Sunni tribes not to attempt to
cooperate with either Baghdad or the U.S. BBC
****
**** Journalist finds young Iranians very friendly to America
****
CNN correspondent Anthony Bourdain recently returned from
a trip to Iran, and described his experiences on the
Fareed Zakaria show on CNN:
<QUOTE>"Yeah, and an incredible experience. What we saw
inside Iran was extraordinary, heartbreaking, confusing,
inspiring, and very, very different than the Iran I expected from
always - you know, from looking at it from afar, from a
geopolitical sense, what we read on the news, what we know from
that long and very contentious relationship we've had as nations.
[The most surprising thing was to] walk down the street as an
American and have total strangers constantly saying where are you
from? America? You know, have you tried our food? Thank you for
coming. I'm so -- just outgoing, friendly, welcoming to strangers
to a degree that we really experience very, very few places and
I'm talking Western Europe and allied nations. We were really -
we'd been told to expect that, but you're thrown by it when you
face it everywhere. Our producer was -- it was his birthday and we
all went out with our local crew to a very crowded restaurant,
traditional Persian music and Iranian families eating and someone
found out that my producer -- it was his birthday, the entire
restaurant sang "Happy Birthday" to him and they presented him
with a cake. It was a very different Iran than I had been led to
expect or could have imagined.
[You] see how careful people are, of course, and they are very
cognizant that the -- what's OK right now might not be OK in five
minutes as far as behavior. But it feels a lot like Barcelona for
a few minutes at a time, and we went at one point -- hung out in a
parking lot in Tehran late at night with all these young Iranian
kids who collect American muscle cars and basically hang out and
order up pizza and rev their engines and collect, you know,
mustangs and challengers, and for a minute you can be forgiven for
thinking it's southern California. The kids like any other - It's
a very young country, of course. So the disconnect between the
hard- liners and the people who run and control the country and
the Iran you see and feel on the street is very jarring and I
think people are - it's just going to blow people's minds when
they see it."<END QUOTE>
Reading this, you can see the reason why I've been saying for ten
years that Iran was going to become our ally. It actually began to be
obvious in the early 2000s, when college students began having
pro-American demonstrations.
Iran is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the
1979 Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in
1988. The generation of children that grew up after the war are
rebelling against their parents, just as American children rebelled
against their parents in the 1960s. Iran is having a "generation
gap," just as America had a generation gap splitting the survivors of
World War II from their children, the Boomers who grew up after the
war.
Iran's hardliners are the survivors of the Great Islamic Revolution.
As each year passes, there are fewer of them, and more of the younger
generation, which likes the west, and has nothing in particular
against Israel.
As I've reported many times ( "10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough"
), the attitudes of young
people are causing panic among the old geezer hardliners. They know
that the hardline Islamic revolution will not survive in anything like
its present form when they're gone. CNN
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lahore, Wagah, India,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Jamat-ul-Ahrar, Jundullah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Abu Nimr, Baghdad, Iran, Anthony Bourdain
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Xenakis is simply a conservative version of the liberal-internationalist consensus. Most of our foreign policy problems is because our policies are too risk-adverse, there is hardly any mavericks or extremists in Washington. I've known we had an incompetent government since the late 90s-early 00s when Clinton refused to strike first against bin laden before 9/11, and later when bush refused to launch nukes against muslim cities and population centers in the aftermath of 9/11. Later when we invaded Iraq, we choose to stay and nation-build rather than use Iraq as a springboard for further military operations.
Also wars historically happen much more frequently than in 55-70 years between end of hostilities and the beginning of the next conflict: You still can't explain why ww1 and ww2 were one generation apart; and don't say that Russia wanted ww1 while Germany Austria and the west did not, Germany declared war on Russia and France on august 1st and 3rd respectively. Russia and Austria were still at peace until august 6th. Germany, not Russia wanted WW1.
Wilsonian Internationalists like yourself want a world federal government, the anathema of the nation-state. Most of our geopolitical problems are due to Wilsonian and British derived ideologies which say that the world is safer with as few great powers as possible. They are hostile to the very idea of an international system which operates on rules similar to that of the classical Mediterranean, or early modern Europe, or warring states era china (or any period where there was not a unified dynasty there).
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 11-03-2014 at 01:09 PM.
You've been reasonably coherent for the last couple of months, but now
you've returned to gibberish. Have you gone off your meds?
You think that Bush should have launched nuclear weapons against
Muslim cities and population centers? Wow. If your point is that I
would be opposed to launching nuclear weapons against Muslim cities
and population centers, then you're absolutely right.
Let's see. You've been a member of this forum since when? July 2006?
That's 8 years ago. And after 8 years you still have no clue about
the difference between crisis and non-crisis wars?
4-Nov-14 World View -- Germany threatens Britain with EU expulsion over the migrants
*** 4-Nov-14 World View -- Germany threatens Britain with EU expulsion over the migrant issue
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Germany threatens Britain with EU expulsion over the migrant issue
- Mystery drones fly over France's nuclear sites
****
**** Germany threatens Britain with EU expulsion over the migrant issue
****
Polish jobseekers boarding buses to the UK (Getty)
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel is warning Britain's
Prime Minister David Cameron that Britain might have to
leave the European Union if Cameron insists on adopting quotas
that would limit the number of migrant workers coming to Britain.
German sources are saying that if Cameron proceeded with his
plan, then:
<QUOTE>"There will be no going back. Should Cameron persist
[in this plan], Chancellor Angela Merkel would abandon her efforts
to keep Britain in the EU. With that a point of no return would be
reached. That would be it then."<END QUOTE>
It should be noted that this isn't about migrants from Syria or
northern Africa, which is an entirely different issue. This is about
migrants who are EU citizens living in eastern Europe, mainly in
Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. These and other east European states
joined the EU in 2004-2007, but restrictions on migrant labor did not
fully disappear until January 2014.
A big driver of east-to-west migration is the big gap in average
wages. In 2012, an average working in Bulgaria or Romania got a
little over $4,000 a year, while the figure was $33,000 for UK and
Denmark and $27,000 for Germany.
Cameron is also concerned about "benefit tourism," where jobless
migrants shop around from country to country to find the best social
welfare and unemployment benefits.
Cameron is fighting a political battle in Britain, over the rise
of UKIP, the UK Independence Party, which favors Britain leaving
the EU and has been gaining popularity.
But for Merkel, there is no possible compromise on this issue.
British quotas on EU migration would call into question the European
Union's "four freedoms" -- the free movement of people, goods,
services and capital -- that form a significant part of the foundation
for European unity. Der Spiegel and BBC and Independent (Ireland)
****
**** Mystery drones fly over France's nuclear sites
****
Officials in France, which gets more than two-thirds of its
electricity from nuclear power, the highest proportion in the world,
are concerned about a flurry of mystery drones that in the last month
have flown over 15 of the country's 19 nuclear power plant sites.
On Friday of last week, there were drone flights at five
separate nuclear sites.
There is the fear of a security risk. The drones are small, of the
kind that anyone can purchase for a few hundred dollars, but a
terrorist might be tempted to launch a drone with an explosive
payload. However, officials say that the drones present no danger to
the public, since France's nuclear sites have been prepared for
possible earthquakes or plane crashes, which presumably would be worse
than an exploding drone.
However, a Greenpeace spokesman, while denying that Greenpeace had
anything to do with the drones, warned that a medium-sized bomb on a
drone could hit cooling pools that hold radioactive material.
French authorities are searching for the perpetrators who, if found,
will face fines of up to 75,000 euros and year in prison. AP and Digital Journal
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel, Britain, David Cameron,
Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, benefit tourism,
France, drones, Greenpeace
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5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten Mariopul
*** 5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol
- Russia uses Hungary to put ethnic Rusins in play against Ukraine
- Hezbollah leader brags about Syria war despite spillover into Lebanon
****
**** Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol
****
Russian troops may be planning an attack on the port city of Mariupol, linking Crimea with Russia, and remaining poised to continue to Odessa
Nato says that regular Russian troops in Russia are approaching the
Ukraine border, after Alexander Zakharchenko, the leader of the
Russian anti-government militias in east Ukraine, has vowed the
intention to capture the Black Sea port city of Mariupol.
Russia's state-sponsored media is saying:
<QUOTE>"Russia has repeatedly stated that it is not a party
to the Ukrainian internal conflict and said that all of the
country's actions are in accordance with the international
law."<END QUOTE>
It's true that Russia has repeatedly claimed those things, but in each
case those claims turned out to be lies. Russia claimed they weren't
invading Crimea, just as Russian troops were invading Crimea. Russia
claimed that they wouldn't annex Crimea, just before they annexed
Crimea, a clear violation of international law. Russia claimed that
there were no Russian troops in east Ukraine at a time when Russian
troops were entering east Ukraine. On September 5, Russia signed an
international peace agreement (the "Minsk protocols") in which they
committed to a political compromise in east Ukraine, and then
supported east Ukraine elections earlier this week in complete
violation of their own agreement.
The winner of those east Ukraine elections was Alexander Zakharchenko,
the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, said
"Ukraine has to understand that the (Donetsk People’s Republic) is
already another state," essentially declaring war on Ukraine's
government. On the same day, Soviet army veteran Igor Plotnitsky
became leader of the neighboring self-proclaimed People's Republic of
Luhansk, and he appealed to east Ukraine regions to secede and create
a new state of Novorossiya.
As the Russian military buildup proceeds, Ukraine's president Petro
Poroshenko has ordered army Ukrainian reinforcements to key eastern
and southeastern Ukraine cities. However, no one seriously believes
that Ukraine's army can withstand an invasion by Russia. BBC and LA Times and Ria Novosti (Moscow) and AFP/Reuters
****
**** Russia uses Hungary to put ethnic Rusins in play against Ukraine
****
Although Hungary has been a member of the European Union, the
relationship has been extremely contentious because of discrimination
against Jews and Roma citizens, and because of laws favored by
Hungary's premier Viktor Orbán to limit free speech and limit the
freedom of Hungary's central bank. Hungary's government has been
growing increasingly pro-Russian, and Orbán's relationship with
Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been getting closer.
Putin has been taking advantage of the closer relationship with
Hungary as a cover to promote a secessionist movement in western
Ukraine of the Rusin (or Carpatho-Rusin) ethnic group. Orbán's
government promotes itself as a defender of the Rusins against
Ukrainians, and a strong secessionist movement would destabilize
Ukraine in the west, giving Russian troops a freer hand in the east,
with the continuing threat of continuing to dismember Ukraine
completely. Jamestown and Orthodox Holiness
****
**** Hezbollah leader brags about Syria war despite spillover into Lebanon
****
Shia Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, appearing on nationwide
television in Lebanon on Tuesday, bragged about entering Syria's war
on the side of the Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, and tried
to downplay the increasing Shia versus Sunni sectarian violence that's
been spilling over into Lebanon, particularly along the northern
border with Syria.
Tuesday is Ashura, the most important date in the Shia calendar. It
commemorates the battle of Karbala in 680, which led to the historic
split between Sunni and Shia Islam. Nasrallah tried to cool sectarian
tensions in Lebanon by playing them down:
<QUOTE>"There is an error in diagnosing the nature of the
conflict in the region, which is not a Sunni-Shiite
conflict.... We, the Shiites, should not be dealing with this
conflict as being sectarian, our battle is not with the Sunnis,
but with American hegemony, Israeli schemes, and Takfiris [Muslims
accused of apostasy]."<END QUOTE>
Hezbollah used to be popular with both Sunnis and Shias, many of whom
view the militia as the principal force in the "resistance" against
Israel. But Hezbollah's invasion of Syria to bolster al-Assad's
forces has reduced the popular view of Hezbollah as a sectarian Shia
militia, backed by Iran, joining with a regime that's massacring
innocent Sunni women and children in Syria.
During his speech, Nasrallah tried to regain popular support
by speculating on a Hezbollah attack on Israel:
<QUOTE>"Israelis are saying in the media that they would have
to close down Ben-Gurion Airport and the Haifa port and yes,
that’s true.
You should close all of your airports and your ports because
there is no place in the land of occupied Palestine that the
resistance’s rockets cannot reach. ...
They know that going to war with the resistance will be very
costly because we are more determined, stronger, more experienced
... and we are capable of achieving such
accomplishments."<END QUOTE>
Daily Star (Beirut) and Naharnet (Beirut) and CS Monitor
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Mariupol, Russia, Petro Poroshenko,
Alexander Zakharchenko, Minsk protocols, Igor Plotnitsky,
Odessa, Crimea, Vladimir Putin, Hungary, Viktor Orbán,
Rusin, Carpatho-Rusin, Lebanon, Israel,
Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Ashura, Battle of Karbala
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6-Nov-14 World View -- Pakistan mob lynches Christian couple over alleged blasphemy
*** 6-Nov-14 World View -- Pakistan mob lynches Christian couple over alleged blasphemy charge
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Pakistan mob lynches Christian couple over alleged blasphemy charge
- Jordan recalls Israeli envoy as violence increases in Jerusalem
****
**** Pakistan mob lynches Christian couple over alleged blasphemy charge
****
Site of the brick kiln where the Christian couple was burned to death (Express)
A poor Christian couple who worked in a brick kiln were accused on
Monday by a co-worker of having burned pages of the Koran. No
evidence was presented. On Tuesday, a local cleric used loudspeakers
of his mosque to demand that his community to punish the couple. A
mob gathered outside the couple's house, dragged them out, and beat
them. They locked up the couple for two days, attacked the woman with
shovels, then tortured the husband, and threw both of them into the
brick kiln where they had worked, letting them burn to death.
The police had two days to stop all this, but did nothing until after
the couple had been killed.
I've reported on several similar cases over the years. A completely
unsupported charge of blasphemy is made, and the accused is murdered
or lynched.
In January 2011, Salman Taseer, a high ranking Pakistani official, was
assassinated by one of his own bodyguards. Taseer had publicly
opposed Pakistan's blasphemy law, and so Taseer himself was committing
blasphemy. Taseer was shot in broad daylight on an Islamabad street
by Malik Mumtaz Qadri, a member of the "Elite Force" that were
supposed to protect him. ( "5-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated"
)
The next day, when Qadri was brought to court to face charges of
having assassinated Taseer, the other lawyers showered him with roses.
A statement by 500 Pakistan religious scholars praised Qadri for
keeping alive a "tradition of 1,400 years in Islam" which requires the
killing of anyone committing an act of blasphemy against Prophet
Mohammed.
In September 2012, a mentally retarded 14 year old Christian girl in a
suburb of Islamabad was arrested for blasphemy, accused by a Muslim
cleric of burning papers containing verses from the Koran. She was
later released when it turned out that the cleric had manufactured
evidence, but she and her family had to be relocated because of
threats against them.
The application of blasphemy laws in Pakistan is extremely irrational.
The cases that make international news are when blasphemy laws are
used to target Christians, but in fact that's a small percentage of
such cases. Blasphemy laws are used by Muslims to target other
Muslims in well over 90% of the cases, usually by Sunni Muslims
targeting Shia Muslims or Sufis or Ahmadis. Thousands of Pakistanis
have been jailed, tortured or killed by means of the blasphemy laws.
But what's really remarkable is ordinary Pakistanis accept this, and
they refuse to speak out against it.
This is exactly the kind of behavior that I've frequently described in
Generation-Xers in America, where thousands of Gen-X financial
engineers created the financial crisis with the purpose of defrauding
hated Boomers, without being investigated or sent to jail, because
Gen-Xers refuse to blame other Gen-Xers for anything, even serious
crimes. It's this refusal to blame other Gen-Xers for crimes that
characterizes this generation today versus the Boomers, and it's
exactly the same kind of behavior we're seeing in the Pakistani
population today.
As I explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust"
, this is also the same
behavior that led to the 1930s Holocaust. Germany's Lost Generation
(the generational predecessor of today's Generation-X) hated the
previous Missionary Generation just as much as today's Gen-Xers hate
the previous Boomer Generation.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these situations
occur in all times and places throughout history, and result in
history's greatest catastrophes. In each case, the generational
conflict morphs into a political conflict, as people in every
generation are forced to choose sides in the generational debate. In
1930s Germany, it was the Christians blaming the Jews for German
humiliation in World War I. In America in the mid-2000s, it was the
Democrats blaming the Republicans for the Nasdaq crash in 2000. In
Pakistan, it's the Sunnis blaming the Shias. The result is always the
same: catastrophe. Daily Times (Pakistan) and BBC
****
**** Jordan recalls Israeli envoy as violence increases in Jerusalem
****
Tensions escalated sharply in Jerusalem on Wednesday, as Jordan
recalled its Israeli envoy, citing increased violence between
Palestinians and Israeli security police around the Temple Mount, the
holiest site in the Jewish religion, which is part of the Al Aqsa
Mosque compound in Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam (after
Mecca and Medina). When Israel temporarily shut down access to the Al
Aqsa mosque compound for two days last week, Palestinian Authority
president Mahmoud Abbas called it "tantamount to a declaration of
war."
Jordan's announcement was followed by further clashes, and a terrorist
act, when a Palestinian drove his van into a crowd of bystanders, and
then got out of his vehicle and began attack people with a crowbar.
He was shot and killed by police. Hamas has claimed credit for the
terrorist attack. A similar incident occurred two weeks ago, raising
concern that this will be a new pattern of repeating terrorist
attacks.
There is a clear trend line of increasing violence in and around
Jerusalem, ever since the bodies of three Israeli teenage settlers
were found weeks after they were abducted on June 10 by terrorists
that Israelis believe were commissioned by Hamas. This was followed
by a spiral of violence, as well as the Gaza war. Tensions and
violence continue to increase almost every day, and violence between
Jews and Arabs is the worst it's been in over a decade. This has led
some Israeli officials to believe that a "third intifada" is here, and
that Palestinians will increasingly attack Jews in the months to come.
Irish Times and Jewish Press
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, blasphemy, Salam Taseer,
Malik Mumtaz Qadri, Holocaust, Hamas, Gaza war,
Jordan, Israel, Temple Mount, Al Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem
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Is Hungary becoming an ally of Russia? That would be ironic. Hungary is a member of NATO. Which suggests that NATO is is becoming divorced from reality.
If Hungary continues on this path, it will be suicide. To the North, just beyond the sliver of the Slovak Republic, is Poland, now bristling with rearmament and rising alarm. To the East of course is a newly wary Ukraine. To the South? Romania, now the staunchest of NATO allies, and now home to a major NMD deployment and an increasing USN presence. To the West, of course, good old "neutral" Austria. In the coming War of Mass Destruction, "neutral" countries will be either invasion corridors or battle fields. Therefore, forget Austria, and skip to the West. Germany.
Any questions?
7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
*** 7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
- Russia loses influence in East Ukraine as economy weakens
- France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists
****
**** Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
****
Underground gas storage facility in Ukraine (Bloomberg)
Oil markets fell sharply again on Thursday, with U.S. crude falling to
$78 per barrel, and North Sea Brent Crude falling to $83 per barrel.
Oil prices have been falling because of a combination of increased
supply and decreased demand. Oil demand is falling because of a
potential European recession and slowing Chinese growth. World oil
production has been growing, particularly in the United States where
oil from fracking has been surging. Saudi Arabia has been cutting
prices and increasing production, apparently with the intention of
trying to make U.S. oil production unprofitable, but in doing so
they're pushing oil prices down further. Some analysts are predicting
that it will reach $70 per barrel.
This is good news for people will cars, but it's bad news for Russia's
government, which depends on oil income. Russia has budgeted for oil
to be priced at $114 per barrel or more, an assumption that seemed
fairly reasonably only a few months ago.
The value of the Russian ruble has also been plummeting, and fell 3.6%
on Thursday, the biggest drop in six years. The fall in the ruble is
mostly due to the fall in oil prices, but also due to the sanctions
imposed by the West for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of
Crimea. Reuters and Bloomberg and Citibank
****
**** Russia loses influence in East Ukraine as economy weakens
****
The election last week by the East Ukraine Russians of leaders of the
self-designated Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's
Republic, is just one sign that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is
losing influence in East Ukraine. Because of its own economic
problems, Russia is unable to provide much financial aid to Donetsk
and Lugansk, where the economic situation is critical.
Schoolteachers and other government officials have not been paid since
July, when Ukraine's government in Kiev cut off funding. State-owned
companies in Donetsk and Lugansk have no idea how they're going to
survive. In many villages there's no power, little water, and few
medications. The real test will come in winter.
Even worse, disputes between leaders in Donetsk and Lugansk are
growing, the citizen militias are disintegrating. Today, there's no
real leader with whom anyone -- Moscow, Kiev, Nato -- can negotiate.
Der Spiegel
****
**** France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists
****
More than 1,000 young people from France have joined jihadist groups
in Syria and Iraq, more than from any other country. Entire families
have joined jihadist movements, including about 100 young French
women. Even upper class families are shocked when their children
suddenly disappear and are later discovered in Syria, the boys to be
used as cannon fodder and the girls to marry the jihadists.
France on Tuesday adopted an anti-terrorism law that will impose a
travel ban on anyone suspected of planning to wage jihad. It also
brings in punishment for “lone wolves” who plan terrorist attacks on
their own, and allows authorities to block entry to any EU citizen or
their relatives if their presence in France constitutes a threat.
Al Arabiya and Der Spiegel
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, U.S. Crude, Brent Crude,
China, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic,
France, Syria
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The final collapse of the NPT (the mother of all pie crust treaties) could be mere months away. It will be interesting to see which countries go nuclear. I think it is actually healthy. There are far too many countries who depend on the US and UK for their nuclear umbrella. That is a situation that lends itself to a massive first strike by our enemies. If they take out the US and UK command capabilities, game over. A more decentralized situation would actually be a boon to Western power. The other benefit is, each nuclear country would have its own style. One might go big, and feature large megatonnage. Another may go for enhanced radiation warheads, preferring death rays to big bangs. Diversity.
Last edited by XYMOX_4AD_84; 11-07-2014 at 09:11 PM.
Why do you say it's going to collapse? Won't it be kept on life
support in one way or another, using various workarounds?
Why bother? Once it is meaningless, it is no longer worth the effort.
As a subset of this, it appears that the age old Romanian - Hungarian hostility is being rekindled again. Hungary never has learned its lesson.
8-Nov-14 World View -- Obama sharply escalates U.S. involvement in Iraq war
*** 8-Nov-14 World View -- Obama sharply escalates U.S. involvement in Iraq war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- U.S. is doubling number of troops in Iraq, but it's not 'mission creep'
- The comeuppance election
- U.S. cannot confirm claim that Russian tanks are entering Ukraine
- Chechnya refugees now fighting the Russians in Ukraine
****
**** U.S. is doubling number of troops in Iraq, but it's not 'mission creep'
****
Iraqis fighting ISIS militants on October 25 (Reuters)
President Barack Obama announced late Friday afternoon, three days
after the election, that he is authorizing 1500 new troops into Iraq,
effectively doubling the number of authorized troops to 3,100.
What is more significant, however, is that while the previous troops
were kept close to Baghdad for such tasks as protecting the embassy,
the new troops will be out in the field in Anbar province, where they
will be vulnerable to combat attacks and kidnapping. However,
according to the White House, this new announcement is not "mission
creep."
For reference, here's a selection of past statements by Obama:
<QUOTE>"Jun 19: We're prepared to send a small number of
additional American advisors, up to 300, to assess how we can best
train, advise and support Iraqis security force forces going
forward I think we always have to guard against mission creep, so
let me repeat what I've said in the past -- American combat troops
are not going to be fighting in Iraq again.
Sep 7: The notion that the U.S. should be putting boots on the
ground is a profound mistake.
Sep 10: These American forces will not have a combat mission. We
will not get dragged into another ground war in Iraq.
Sep 12: My fellow Americans, tonight I want to speak to you about
what the United States will do with our friends and allies to
degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL.
Sep 12: But I want the American people to understand how this
effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign
soil. This counterterrorism campaign will be waged through a
steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist,
using our air power and our support for partner forces on the
ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us,
while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have
successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years. And it is
consistent with the approach I outlined earlier this year: to use
force against anyone who threatens America’s core interests, but
to mobilize partners wherever possible to address broader
challenges to international order.
Sep 18: The the American forces that have been deployed to Iraq do
not and will not have a combat mission.
Sep 20: I won't commit our troops to fighting another ground war
in Iraq or in Syria."<END QUOTE>
In Friday's announcement, the President insisted that this wasn't
mission creep, and that they would be advising and assisting, but
not fighting.
But these 1,500 new troops will be out in Anbar province, in the
middle of the fighting. Are they really just going to sit there and
watch as the fighting goes one?
It's worth pointing out that Obama has been consistently wrong about
Iraq. In 2007, he opposed President George Bush's "surge," which
turned out to be successful. In December 2011, he said Iraq was
stable, and had no need for American troops at all. In June of this
year, when he sent in 300 troops as advisors, he suggested that ISIS
could be defeated with Iraqi troops and American air strikes.
At every step of the way, one analyst after another explained why
Obama was wrong. And it now turns out that those analysts were right
and Obama was wrong.
****
**** The comeuppance election
****
Today I heard one analyst say that at least 10,000 or so more troops
would be needed for the operation in Anbar province to be effective,
and he predicted that Obama would end up increasing the deployment
to at least the level within a few months -- and that they would
be combat troops.
I've told the following story many times, but it's worth repeating
now. When I heard Obama campaigning in 2008, saying that with his
election the earth would heal and the tides would recede, and making
other ridiculous promises, I didn't think much of it, since
politicians always say ridiculous things when they're campaigning, and
then they pull them back after the election.
After the election, when I heard Obama continue saying the same
things, I knew we were in trouble. And when I heard him say something
to the effect that on January 21 the world will be a different place,
I thought that if he really believed that, then he delusional.
Now, six years later, it's clear that he's delusional. His supporters
make excuses for him, but the excuses don't explain the arrogance, the
doubling down on every bad decision, the fact that every foreign
policy decision has been a disaster, the attitude that he's the
smartest guy in the room, in every room -- even though he's admitted
he can't do his daughter's
7th grade math homework. It's gotten to the point where I almost
dread it whenever he opens his mouth.
Everybody gets his comeuppance sooner or later, and on Tuesday Obama
got his. It's a compliment to the American political system that we
tolerate this kind of delusional arrogance only for so long, and then
elections take over. This is in contrast to any number of countries
where delusional leaders stay in office forever. Tuesday's election
was a "comeuppance election" for Obama. He still hasn't learned
anything, and he's still arrogantly doubling down on every bad
decision, but at least the American political system has limited how
much more damage he can do. We're really seeing the strength and
brilliance of our Constitutional form of government.
In the meantime, there's little that we can do but watch as he
stumbles, one step at a time, into a new American war in Iraq in the
worst possible way. Reuters
****
**** U.S. cannot confirm claim that Russian tanks are entering Ukraine
****
According to Ukraine's military, Russia on Thursday sent a column of
32 tanks and truckloads of troops across Russia's border into Ukraine,
to support the anti-government Russians in east Ukraine. This follows
reports on Wednesday that Russian troops were approaching Ukraine's border.
However, the State Department said on Friday that it could not confirm
the reports that the troops had crossed the border. State Department
spokesman Jen Psaki said Russian battle tanks, armored vehicles and
cargo trucks had been seen on Thursday at a rail yard about 25
kilometers (15.5 miles) from the border. Reuters and AFP
****
**** Chechnya refugees now fighting the Russians in Ukraine
****
In a surprise development, two battalions of Chechen veterans of late
1990s war between Russia and Chechnya are now fighting the Russians in
Ukraine, under the Ukrainian flag. These are people who fought at the
beginning of the second Russian-Chechen war and ended up in European
countries as refugees.
Some of these Chechens had been going to Syria to join the jihadists
fighting the Syrian regime because that was the only outlet available.
But the Ukraine conflict has given them a new outlet, with the
advantage that they can strike the Russian army and Russian interests
directly. Jamestown
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Anbar province,
Ukraine, Russia, Chechnya, Syria
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As you've alluded to before, the seemingly disparate war zones in "The Fertile Crescent" and in SE Europe are on their way to a merger. It will be a single war zone stretching from the Indian subcontinent to the Baltic (and beyond). WW3.
