*** 26-Nov-14 World View -- Pope Francis calls Mediterranean a 'vast cemetery' for migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pope Francis calls Mediterranean a 'vast cemetery' for migrants
• Mali attempts to prevent the spread of Ebola
• E-Cigarettes can infect your computer with malware

****
**** Pope Francis calls Mediterranean a 'vast cemetery' for migrants
****


Pope Francis at the European Parliament on Tuesday (AFP)

Pope Francis has previously spoken out on the treatment of migrants.
Last year he criticized the "globalization of indifference" towards
migrants, saying that the western society had "forgotten how to cry,"
and that "the culture of our own well-being makes us insensitive to
the cries of others."

On Tuesday he gave a speech to the European Parliament in Brussels:

<QUOTE>"There needs to be a united response to the question
of migration. We cannot allow the Mediterranean to become a vast
cemetery.

The boats landing daily on the shores of Europe are filled with
men and women who need acceptance and assistance. ...

One of the most common diseases in Europe today is loneliness.
You can see it in the eyes of migrants who came here seeking a
better future."<END QUOTE>

Francis also said that the European Union had lost its way:

<QUOTE>"Europe seems to give the impression of being somewhat
elderly and haggard, feeling less and less a protagonist in a
world which frequently regards it with aloofness.

We encounter a general impression of weariness and ageing, of a
Europe which is now a grandmother, no longer fertile and vibrant.

The time has come for us to abandon the idea of a Europe which is
fearful and self-absorbed, in order to revive and encourage a
Europe of leadership."<END QUOTE>

Francis also declared that the EU had lost its bearings, and was
hostage to a uniform economic model that undermined democracy while
the centrality of human rights was becoming confused with and
supplanted by individualistic narcissism.

Over the past weekend alone, some 800 migrants were rescued from
drowning by naval vessels from Italy and Libya. At least 215,000 asylum
seekers arrived in Europe so far this year, while only 43,000 arrived
during the entire year 2013. Guardian (London) and Reuters and AFP

****
**** Mali attempts to prevent the spread of Ebola
****

Two weeks ago, a 70-year-old sick Imam traveled by car from Guinea to
Bamako, the capital city of Mali, where he went to a local hospital
and died. Hundreds of people touched his body in the funeral
preparations that followed, before anyone realized he had Ebola.
( "15-Nov-14 World View -- Ebola cluster growing in Mali, hundreds possibly exposed"
)

Mali officials said on Monday that another person had tested positive
for Ebola, bringing the total number of cases to eight. Six
previously identified patients have died. Health officials in Mali
are currently monitoring some 300 people who may have come in contact
with the Imam, or with someone who had been in a contact chain to the
Imam. Teams of people check each of these people twice a day,
every day, to catch anyone who may be sick with Ebola. Not everyone
is cooperating, but Mali officials are being aggressive in chasing
down anyone who avoids monitoring.

Health officials have been successful so far in preventing widespread
Ebola infections outside of the three main West African countries -
Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. They're hoping that quick action
has prevented Mali from becoming the fourth country devastated
by Ebola.

The level of anxiety and panic has also simmered down. Thanks to
political crises over immigration and Ferguson, I haven't heard a peep
lately out of anyone demanding that anyone traveling by plane from
West Africa be refused entry into the United States.

There was a time last spring, for about a month, when everyone
thought that Ebola had been all but eradicated in West Africa.
Then suddenly it turned out that there were dozens of cases
that had previously been unreported, and soon these turned
into hundreds, and then thousands.

Officials are hoping that nothing like that will happen in any other
country, but the case of the Imam shows what can go wrong. All you
need is one Ebola patient who travels to a crowded city or a war zone.
Since an infected patient may not show symptoms for 21 days, it would
be possible to start a new Ebola cluster anywhere, just as recently
happened in Mali. VOA and Reuters

****
**** E-Cigarettes can infect your computer with malware
****

E-cigarettes are a great invention for people who are addicted to the
nicotine in cigarettes. E-cigarettes look like cigarettes, they
fulfill the need for nicotine, but they do not have any tars and other
poisons that cause lung cancer. The "smoke" they give off is only
water vapor.

However, an e-cigarette contains a battery that has to be charged, and
many of them are recharged by connecting them to a computer with a USB
cable. At least one brand of e-cigarette made in China infects your
computer with malware when you connect the USB cable.

Apparently the same thing is possible for photo frames, MP3 players,
or any other device that plugs into the computer via a USB cable.
Guardian and Reddit


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Mediterranean,
Italy, Libya, Mali, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone,
e-cigarettes, malware, USB cable

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*** 27-Nov-14 World View -- Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland forming alliance to confront Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland forming alliance to confront Russia
• Health workers boycott Pakistan's polio vaccination campaign after shooting
• Two British brothers jailed for training at Syria terror camp

Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers!

****
**** Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland forming alliance to confront Russia
****


Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko, right, greets Lithuania's president Dalia Grybauskaite in Kiev on Monday (AP)

Lithuania may supply weapons to Ukraine as part of plans to increase
its support to the Ukrainian military with the formation of a joint
Lithuanian, Polish and Ukrainian Brigade project. According to
Lithuania's Defense Minister Juozas Olekas:

<QUOTE>"A joint brigade formed by Lithuania, Ukraine and
Poland will provide an opportunity for Ukraine to learn from
Lithuania's and Poland's experience of Nato integration and to
develop efficient armed forces."<END QUOTE>

The plan grew out of a visit to Kiev this week by Lithuania's
president Dalia Grybauskaite and Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko.
Grybauskaite announced that Lithuania would be providing Ukraine with
military aid, but did not specify if this would include weaponry or be
of the non-lethal kind.

In a bizarre statement of a kind that we've come to expect from
the Russians, Russia's foreign ministry warned that supplying
weapons to Ukraine would violate international agreements:

<QUOTE>"We heard repeated confirmations from the [US]
administration, that it only supplies non-lethal aid to
Ukraine. If there is a change of this policy, then we are talking
about a serious destabilizing factor which could seriously affect
the balance of power in the region."<END QUOTE>

This is bizarre because Russia hasn't worried about seriously
destabilizing the region when it invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea,
and continues to pour weapons and troops into east Ukraine, all in
violation of international law.

Lithuania already has a tense relationship with Russia. Grybauskaite
recently called Russia a "terrorist country" because of its troops in
east Ukraine.

Ukraine has been lobbying for months to receive military assistance
from Nato as a whole or from the United States, but those requests
have always been refused. The new alliance will Ukraine to become
integrated with two Nato countries - Lithuania and Poland - though
obtaining far fewer resources.

Ukraine is already in an alliance of post-Soviet countries. The
alliance is called "GUAM - Organization for Democracy and Economic
Development" where GUAM stands for Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Moldova. It used to be called GUUAM, but the fifth member,
Uzbekistan, dropped out. However, GUAM is more an economic union,
while the new alliance is primarily military in nature. Paul Goble and Army Technology and Russia Behind The Headlines and Global Security

****
**** Health workers boycott Pakistan's polio vaccination campaign after shooting
****

Gunmen killed four polio workers and injured three others on Wednesday
morning in Quetta, in southwest Pakistan. The Lady Health Workers
(LHW) association in the province subsequently announced a boycott of
the polio campaign in Balochistan.

The polio vaccination campaign was announced earlier this month. Over
238,000 children under the age of five were to be administered polio
vaccine. The boycott will put the campaign on hold. At least 10
cases of polio were reported so far this year from the region around
Quetta. Many parents refuse to allow their children to receive polio
vaccine, believing the Taliban claims that the polio vaccination
campaign is a Western plot to sterilize Muslim children. Pakistan is
one of only three countries in the world where polio remains endemic,
along with Afghanistan and Nigeria, while polio has also reemerged
in Syria.

Polio cases in Pakistan have been surging to record-breaking levels,
thanks to the Taliban's opposition to polio vaccine, claiming that
it's a Western plot to sterilize Pakistani children. The Taliban have
been murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio
providing vaccines, ever since the U.S. administration bragged in 2011
that a hepatitis vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover
to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Two British brothers jailed for training at Syria terror camp
****

Two brothers, Mohommod Nawaz, 30, and Hamza Nawaz, 24, both citizens
of Britain, were sentenced to 4 1/2 years and 3 years in jail,
respectively, after admitting to having attended a terrorism training
camp in Syria in 2013. According to the judge,

<QUOTE>"It is clear from the evidence from mobile phones that
you both had been in a camp in Syria used for terrorist training.
The evidence shows you were there for jihad, or holy war, and
wanted to join an extremist group."<END QUOTE>

In August 25 of last year, the pair said they were going out for a
meal, but instead left for France by car, and then flew to Turkey and
ultimately crossed the border to join a jihadist training camp.
Later, they send a message by social media to selected friends
confirming what they had done.

They returned to the UK in September but were stopped by border
officers who found ammunition designed for use in AK-47 rifles, mobile
phone pictures of a training camp, and videos of their trip to the war
zone.

The jailing of the two men is the first in a string of cases, with
several men convicted of terrorism offences in relation to Syria
waiting to receive sentences. At least three other men face similar
charges directly linked to activity in Syria. Others are awaiting
sentencing for planning their own activity or assisting others.

European officials are becoming increasingly alarmed that thousands of
young men and women are traveling to Syria to join terrorist groups,
including the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).
Some of them have already returned to Europe and others are expected
to return. The fear is that they'll use the skills developed in Syria
to perform terrorist acts in their home countries. Britain can't
prevent young men and women from going to Syria, but the new laws mean
that they can't simply return to Britain and resume their former lives
as if nothing had happened. BBC and Independent (Ireland)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, Russia,
Petro Poroshenko, Dalia Grybauskaite, Crimea, Nato,
GUAM - Organization for Democracy and Economic Development,
Pakistan, Balochistan, polio, Taliban, Osama bin Laden,
Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, Mohommod Nawaz, Hamza Nawaz

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*** 28-Nov-14 World View -- Oil prices crash after OPEC meeting ends in discord

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Oil prices crash after OPEC meeting ends in discord
• Oil price plunge pressures budgets of oil exporting countries
• Russia and Venezuela on their knees with oil prices plunging

****
**** Oil prices crash after OPEC meeting ends in discord
****


OPEC

The 12-nation oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC), ended its meeting in Vienna on Thursday in discord.
Poorer members, such as Iran, Iraq, Angola and Venezuela, had been
calling for an agreement where all cartel members would cut production
of oil, in order to force a global increase in the price of oil.

However, Saudi Arabia refused to agree to any such cuts. News of the
discord led to a crash in oil prices. Oil was selling for $100-120
per barrel just a few months ago. But on Thursday, West Texas
Intermediate plunged to $67.75 a barrel (for January delivery), while
London's Brent North Sea crude nosedived to $71.25.

The plunge in oil prices is occurring because of a glut in the oil
markets, and the glut in turn is caused by high production and
decreasing demand. A lot of the glut has come about because of
America's increased production of shale oil (fracking), which has made
America the number one oil producer in the world. Even the OPEC
cartel, which was supposed to be limiting combined oil production from
the 12 members to 30 million barrels per day actually produced 30.6
million barrels per day in October. The reduction in demand is
largely due to slowing growth in Europe and China. Reuters and AFP

****
**** Oil price plunge pressures budgets of oil exporting countries
****

Although the plunge in oil prices will cause a fall in gasoline
prices, which is good news for consumers, it's going to put a great
deal of pressure of the budgets of oil exporting countries that were
counting on oil prices above $100 per barrel.

I've been listening to a number of analysts throw out different
numbers for how high oil has to be for each country's budget to
balance. The following list is a synthesis of all that I heard:

Code:

+----------------+--------+
| Libya          |   $184 | 
| Iran           |   $131 | 
| Algeria        |   $131 | 
| Venezuela      |   $110 | 
| Russia         |   $105 | 
| Nigeria        |   $100 | 
| Saudi Arabia   |   $ 98 | 
| UAE            |   $ 80 | 
| Kuwait         |   $ 78 | 
| Qatar          |   $ 77 | 
+----------------+-----------+
Table: Oil price per barrel required
to balance each country's budget

According to analysts, in order for American fracking operations to
make money, oil prices have to be at least $65-70 per barrel.
Analysts say that Saudi Arabia is keeping prices low as a long-range
investment in order to suppress America's fracking industry, and that
Saudi Arabia has enough currency reserves that it can sustain these
low prices for 6-12 months. However, poorer countries will be in
trouble much more quickly.

****
**** Russia and Venezuela on their knees with oil prices plunging
****


Oil revenue as share of government revenue (Quartz)

When Vladimir Putin first became president of Russia in 2001,
oil revenues accounted for just 9% of the Russian economy. In
2013, oil revenues accounted for 52% of the Russian economy.
On Thursday, the ruble currency slumped to historic lows against
the dollar and the euro. Even at a price of $80 per barrel of
Urals crude, the federal budget will run a deficit of 2-2.5%.

There's a feeling that Venezuela is getting its comeuppance with the
plunge in oil prices. Hugo Chávez used to stick it to the United
States whenever he could, because high oil prices made his country
wealthy. But instead of saving any of that money, he wasted it on
huge socialist programs design to buy popularity for himself and for
his party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). These
included things like subsidizing food so that prices are one-sixth
of market prices.

But now Chávez is gone, and oil prices are plunging. His successor,
Nicolás Maduro, doesn't have anything like Chávez's charisma, so he's
been trying to borrow some charisma from Chávez by pretending to be
able to talk to him in the afterlife. According to Maduro:

<QUOTE>"I'm going to confess that a bird approached me, and
approached me again and said ... that the commander [Chávez] was
happy and full of love for the loyalty of his people ... must be
proud."<END QUOTE>

I don't know how many people believed the talking bird story, but
other PSUV politicians are saying things that are much harsher.
According to one of Chávez's cabinet ministers, "It’s painful and
worrying to see a Presidency that doesn’t show leadership." He
criticized the “repetition of the approaches formulated by Comandante
Chávez, without the necessary coherency."

The broader picture is that the plunging oil prices are part of a
global deflationary spiral. I said, starting in 2003 when I first
began writing about Generational Dynamics, that it was predicting
deflation. Mainstream economists have been predicting high inflation
and even superinflation every quarter for years, so they've been wrong
every quarter and Generational Dynamics has been right. Quartz and Moscow Times and Panama Post and ABC (Madrid) (Trans)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iraq, Angola, Saudi Arabia,
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC,
Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez,
United Socialist Party of Venezuela, PSUV

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*** 29-Nov-14 World View -- Britain's David Cameron draws a red line on immigration

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's David Cameron draws a red line on immigration
• David Cameron accused of 'blackmail' on immigration demands

****
**** Britain's David Cameron draws a red line on immigration
****


David Cameron on Friday (AFP/Getty)

Britain's prime minister David Cameron offered a set of proposals on
Friday to discourage migrants from "benefit shopping" -- coming to the
UK just to take advantage of the generous welfare benefits. His
proposals are not targeted at Muslim migrants coming from Syria or
northern Africa, entering the EU illegally. They're targeted at
mostly Christian EU citizens in eastern Europe, for example in
Bulgaria, where wages are typically 20% of those in the UK, or in
Poland, with wages that are 40% of those in the UK.

Cameron is under tremendous political pressure to find a way to limit
east European migrants from coming to UK. The UK Independence Party
(UKIP), which favors Britain leaving the EU entirely, is gaining
strength because of the immigration issue, and the fact that EU
immigration is reaching record levels.

Previous proposals to simply put an annual cap or limit on the number
of migrants have met with almost universal hostility from leaders
across the EU, because they violate "guaranteed freedom of movement,"
which is one of the founding principles of the 1957 Treaty of Rome on
which the EU is based.

So now Cameron is trying something different: To limit migrants
by making Britain's welfare benefits less attractive for
migrants.

The major elements of Cameron's proposal are:

• No in-work tax credits (for people who work but receive too
  little to live on) or social housing until they've been in Britain for
  four years. No child benefits or tax credits paid for children living
  outside the UK.</li
  
• No unemployment support from the UK taxpayer, and deportation
  for a migrant who does not get a job for six months.
  
• Longer bans on "rough sleepers, beggars and fraudsters" returning
  to the UK.
  
• Significantly: Britain will veto new member countries from joining
  the EU, unless the EU agrees to limit migration from these countries
  until their economies have reached UK levels.

Guardian (London) and BBC

****
**** David Cameron accused of 'blackmail' on immigration demands
****

In his speech, Cameron warned against the UKIP -- "betraying you" with
"simple solutions":

<QUOTE>"The British people will not understand - frankly I
will not understand - if a sensible way through cannot be found,
which will help settle this country's place in the EU once and for
all. ...

Because those who promise you simple solutions are betraying you.

Those who say we would certainly be better off outside the EU only
ever tell you part of the story. Of course we would survive,
there is no doubt about that.

But we would need to weigh in the balance the loss of our instant
access to the single market, and our right to take the decisions
that regulate it. And we would of course lose the automatic right
for the 1.3 million British citizens who today are living and
working elsewhere in Europe to do so. That is something we would
want to think carefully about giving up.

For me, I have one test, and one test only: what is in the best,
long term interests of Britain? ...

If I succeed, I will, as I have said, campaign to keep this
country in a reformed EU. If our concerns fall on deaf ears and
we cannot put our relationship with the EU on a better footing,
then of course I rule nothing out."<END QUOTE>

European leaders have accused Cameron of blackmail in the past, for
threatening to put to a vote a referendum on whether Britain should
leave the European Union. Those accusations were renewed on Friday
over his threat to veto new members from joining the EU unless his
demands are met. Albania is likely to be the next EU member -
population nearly 3 million - but there are several others in the
wings, including Bosnia (3.8 million) and Montenegro (650,000)

Friday's speech is a change in tactics for Cameron. He's given up the
idea of putting any sort of cap on the number of immigrants to
Britain, since that proposal has received almost unanimous hostility
from other EU nations. Instead, he's proposing to make Britain less
desirable for migrants by limiting benefits. He's hoping that those
proposals will be more acceptable to other European leaders, and that
they will be enough to satisfy British citizens who are increasing
turning towards UKIP. BBC and Daily Mail (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, immigration,
European Union, Treaty of Rome

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*** 30-Nov-14 World View -- Taiwan voters choose independence from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan voters choose independence from China
• Sunflowers and Umbrellas

****
**** Taiwan voters choose independence from China
****


Student protests in Taiwan in April of this year (AFP)

Taiwan's ruling nationalist party KMT (Kuomintang) suffered disastrous
losses in local elections across Taiwan on Saturday, giving victories
to the opposing DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), and forcing the
resignation of the prime minister. Thousands of municipalities,
including the capital city Taipei, that had been ruled for years by
KMT mayors and politicians will not be ruled by DPP mayors and
politicians.

The Kuomintang (KMT) is the modern day incarnation of Chiang
Kai-shek's original nationalist party of soldiers that fought against
Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution and lost, and fled to Hong Kong,
then a British colony, and from there to Formosa (Taiwan) in 1949, at
the conclusion of the civil war. The KMT position has always been
that Taiwan would reunite with China.

KMT held an iron grip on power in Taiwan after the war, and that only
began to fade in the 1980s with the founding of the DPP. However, the
1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, which people in Taiwan
viewed with horror, proved to be a catalyst in turning Taiwanese
people against Beijing, and by 2000 the DPP won a national election.
A DPP corruption scandal in 2006 put KMT back into power, and KMT
officials have been working closely with Beijing officials to woo
Taiwan's public to voluntarily want reunite with China.

The policy hasn't really been effective. There are two groups of
people who don't want to reunite. One group is the indigenous
Taiwanese people who lived there before 1949, and who have suffered at
the hands of the KMT. Young people generally form the second group,
and they distrust China and they distrust the KMT for selling out to
China. Central News Agency (Taiwan) and BBC and Forbes

****
**** Sunflowers and Umbrellas
****

In April of this year, hundreds of university students and other
activists protested the proposed Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement
(CSSTA), which KMT had negotiated with Beijing in secret. The
students occupied the legislative chamber for several days, and moved
to occupy the cabinet offices. This triggered a violent response from
the police. The scenes of bloodied protesters, injured police
officers and water cannon trucks galvanized the resolve of the
protesters.

In the first week of the occupation of the legislature, a supporter
brought bunches of sunflowers to the building to symbolize the need to
let sunlight into the black box of KMT negotiations between Taiwan and
mainland China. The protesters became known as the Sunflower Student
Movement.

The Sunflower movement fizzled out as the summer began, but over in
Hong Kong a new protest began, which later came to be known as the
Umbrella Movement, because protesters used umbrellas to fend off
police tear gas. In fact if was the use of tear gas that galvanized
the Hong Kong protesters, just as police violence galvanized the
Taiwan protesters last Spring.

The two protests have become synergistic in the sense that each one is
providing energy to the other. According to some reports, the leaders
of the two protests are helping each other out, providing mutual
support and strategies.

• Taiwan will have general elections in 2016, Hong Kong in
  2017.
  
• Saturday's local elections suggest that the separatist DPP is
  going to win the presidency 2016, which will concern and possibly
  infuriate Beijing.
  
• Beijing has "fixed" the Hong Kong elections by not permitting any
  candidate to run for office unless selected by Beijing. Certainly no
  separatist will be permitted to run.
  
• Protesters in both cities are galvanized by any show of violence
  by security forces because they all well remember Beijing's 1989
  Tiananmen Square massacre.

The anti-Beijing movement in Taiwan really took off after the
Tiananmen Square massacre, and each new show of force by government
officials serves to renew the contempt that these protesters have for
Beijing. With the KMT in power, Beijing has followed a conciliatory
policy towards Taiwan, but in the months to come if it looks like the
DPP is going to come back into power in 2016, then Beijing may feel
forced to take some military action. The China Story (April) and Thinking Taiwan


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, KMT, Kuomintang,
DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Chiang Kai-shek,
Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement, CSSTA,
Sunflower Student Movement, Hong Kong, Umbrella movement,
Tiananmen Square massacre

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*** 1-Dec-14 World View -- Arab League agrees on plan to 'end Israeli occupation' of Palestine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong police clash with protesters, worst violence in weeks
• Arab League agrees on plan to 'end Israeli occupation' of Palestine
• Egypt promises troops for Palestine to assist police forces

****
**** Hong Kong police clash with protesters, worst violence in weeks
****


Protesters clash with police officers on the main road outside government headquarters in Hong Kong on Sunday (AP)

Police used batons and pepper spray to beat back pro-democracy
protesters trying to surround government headquarters in Hong Kong.
Protesters yelled "I want true democracy!" and "Surround the
headquarters. Paralyze the government." Protesters wore surgical
masks, hard hats and used umbrellas -- which have come to symbolize
the pro-democracy movement -- to shield themselves from the pepper
spray, and pelted the police with water bottles and other objects.
The clashes began on Sunday and continued through the night into
Monday. The protests had been simmering down recently, but this was
the worst violence in weeks. 40 protesters were arrested.

The renewed violence comes just one day after Taiwan's pro-Beijing
governing party (KMT) had a disastrous election loss, giving power to
Taiwan's pro-independence opposition party (DPP). ( "30-Nov-14 World View -- Taiwan voters choose independence from China"
)

Activists say that many people in Hong Kong are excited and inspired
by the results of Taiwan's election. According to one, "If Taiwan can
create change, so can Hong Kong in the future."

It's thought that China would like to end the Hong Kong protests
peacefully, so as not to further encourage the anti-Beijing activists
in Taiwan. However, the Hong Kong activists point out that they have
no other way to get their demands heard except by occupation.
AAP and AFP and Central News Agency (Taiwan)

****
**** Arab League agrees on plan to 'end Israeli occupation' of Palestine
****

Saying that "Israel is no longer a peace partner," Palestinian
Authority president Mahmoud Abbas said that "the current situation of
the Palestinian territories is not sustainable. ... We have no option
but to internationalize the issue." He added that in case the
statehood bid is thwarted, "we would move towards defining our
relations with Israel by halting security coordination and calling for
the occupation to assume its responsibilities" under international law
as "an occupying power" of the West Bank. The statements were
made at an Arab League meeting in Cairo on Saturday.

Abbas laid out a specific timeline for "ending the Israeli
occupation," and gaining international recognition of Palestine:

• Turn to the UN Security Council with the draft resolution for
  a Palestinian state, with its capital in Jerusalem.
• Apply to international bodies, including the International
  Criminal Court (ICC), for "State of Palestine" membership.
• File war crime charges against Israel in the ICC.
• Prepare an international meeting in Geneva to officially declare a
  Palestinian State on 1949 Armistice Line borders.
• Call on countries who have not yet officially recognized the State
  of Palestine to do so.

Abbas noted that the parliaments of three separate Western countries
(Sweden, the UK, and Spain) have recognized "Palestine," and that
France will be voting on the issue.

Abbas referred to proposed legislation by Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to declare Israel as a "Jewish state." Abbas said
that the proposal was "racist," and that "Palestinians will not
recognize Israel as a Jewish State," which would attempt to enshrine
Israel's "apartheid regime." Abbas pointed to other Israeli laws that
he considers "racist."

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new war between
Arabs and Israelis, refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs
that following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel, and that there is no guarantee that Israel will
survive that war. WAFA (Gaza) and Israel National News

****
**** Egypt promises troops for Palestine to assist police forces
****

The summer Gaza war made public some very bitter disagreements between
Saudi Arabia and Egypt versus Qatar and Hamas. As we reported two
weeks ago, Saudi Arabia mediated a truce to last at least through the
summit meeting on December 4. ( "21-Nov-14 World View -- Gulf nations paper over their differences for GCC Summit in December"
)

At Saturday's Arab League meeting, all the nations were able to
continue papering over their differences by agreeing that the biggest
issue facing all the Arab states is the "Israeli occupation of
Palestine." One of the issues in resolving that conflict is to find a
way to provide security in the West Bank without relying on Israeli
security forces.

This issue was not discussed at the Arab League meeting, since it
would have opened up new bitter disagreements.

Egypt's president Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi had previously stated in an
interview that he would be willing "to send military forces to a
Palestinian state" in order to reassure Israel and assist police
forces. In a TV interview on Saturday, Abbas said that there is no
objection to the presence of Egyptian troops on Palestinian
territories. "It is welcomed, as Al-Sisi wouldn’t say anything
contrary to the interests of the Palestinian people."

However, this agreement leaves completely unresolved the question of
Gaza and Hamas. Qatar supports Hamas, while Egypt considers them to
be a terrorist group. Hamas would not tolerate Egyptian troops in
Gaza. Furthermore, Hamas is tolerating Abbas as president of the
Hamas-Fatah unity government only because of political expediency, and
Hamas would expect to govern the entire State of Palestine. This
means that Egyptian troops would not be tolerated, and there would
immediately be a state of war between Israel and Palestine.

Saturday's Arab League meeting was able to maintain cordiality by
focusing narrowly on Abbas's plans to force international recognition
of a State of Palestine. However, Abbas's plan makes no mention of
Gaza and Hamas, and the intrinsic contradiction in any plan to have a
fully independent State of Palestine alongside Israel. Daily News Egypt and Gulf News (Dubai)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China,
Arab League, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Palestine, United Nations, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Gaza, Hamas, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

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*** 2-Dec-14 World View -- World Food Program terminates aid to 1.7 million Syrian refugees

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• World Food Program terminates aid to 1.7 million Syrian refugees
• Syrian refugees increasingly threaten regional stability

****
**** World Food Program terminates aid to 1.7 million Syrian refugees
****


Syrian refugee camp

Some 1.7 million Syrian refugees, who have depended on the United
Nations World Food Program (WFP) to provide food vouchers so that they
can eat at least one meal a day, are now going to have to go without
that food. The WFP food voucher program has been shut down as of
December 1 for lack of funding, just as winter is approaching.

Every month, the UN feeds over four million people inside Syria, and
almost two million more now sheltered in other countries. The food
voucher program allowed 1.7 million refugees in Jordan, Lebanon,
Turkey, Iraq and Egypt to purchase food in local stores.

Many countries have pledged money to the WFP without honoring
their pledges. That lack of honor is not true of the United
States which has given almost $1 billion to the WFP for its
operations with Syrians since the conflict started, including a
donation last week of $125 million. But that money covered
food vouchers issued in November, and was not enough to stave
off the end of food vouchers on December 1.

The food voucher money not only allowed refugees to purchase food, but
it also provided cash that traveled through the community to create
jobs and business opportunities. The loss of this funding, especially
with the cold winter approaching, is going to mean increased
instability in a region where instability is growing on a daily basis
anyway.

Syria's refugees are currently the world's largest humanitarian
disaster, but not the not the only one. Recently, the WFP was forced
to cut food rations for the half-million Sudanese and Somalian
refugees in Kenyan refugee camp. The Ebola crisis in West Africa is
creating food shortages for more than a million people. The growing
millions of people in crisis are overwhelming United Nations' aid
agencies to the point where they can no longer operate effectively.
CS Monitor and LA Times

****
**** Syrian refugees increasingly threaten regional stability
****

It's been personally astonishing to me to see the Syrian conflict
unfold from peaceful demonstrations into a proxy war threatening
the region and the world.

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) is a
creation of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and his supporters,
including Russia's president Vladimir and Iran's Supreme Ayatollah
Seyed Ali Khamenei. These are all war criminals because they
participated in and supported wholesale genocide against innocent
Syria Sunnis. Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad has
flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's
killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's
killed dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with
barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In
addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation,
starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive
"industrial strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in
fact with encouragement and support from Russia and Iran.

When I was growing up in the 1950s, it was hard for me to understand
how Hitler and Stalin could have gotten away with what they had done,
and why they had so many supporters. I remember asking my mother that
very question and not getting a satisfactory answer. Now I understand
why, as I see the sycophants of al-Assad and Putin defend their
horrific actions. And the sycophants have been rewarded. Al-Assad's
genocidal actions against innocent protesting Sunnis have encouraged
jihadists from around to world to join ISIS and other jihadist
organizations. We can now see how stupidity brings about disaster.

When refugees began crossing borders in 2011, they were treated
with sympathy and given the aid that they needed. But as
the hundreds of refugees have grown into thousands, then
tens of thousands and then hundreds of thousands, their welcome
has worn thin, and they're straining the resources of the
neighboring countries. Syrians are willing to work for low wages,
forcing everyone's wages down. Rents are rising because of
the refugees, and schools and hospitals are becoming crowded.
The refugees complain of discrimination, abuse, and sexual
exploitation by landlords and merchants.

And there's no end in sight. Apparently nobody is going to stop
al-Assad and his chemical-weapons-laden barrel bombs being dumped on
neighborhoods filled with innocent women and children. So there's
really no expectation that the refugee crisis will end anytime soon.
Al-Assad and Putin will continue with mass murder, and ISIS will
continue to become more powerful.

Lebanon has attempted to enforce new measures aimed at limiting the
number of Syrians entering the country. These new measures have
reduced the influx of refugees, but rights groups have denounced the
measures, claiming that they violate international law.

Jordan is a small country, but it's hosting 1.2 million Syria
refugees. The Syrians are the third big wave of refugees to enter
Jordan since independence in 1946. First came the Palestinians – those
who lost their homes when Israel was created in 1948, and a second
exodus in the wake of the 1967 war. Iraqis arrived in 1991 and again
in 2003. Now the Syrian refugees have done it again.

Like Lebanon, Jordan is closing its border to all but a small number
of further Syrian refugees. This is motivated largely by security
needs. The refugees are coming from regions of Syria under control of
ISIS, and there's a danger that ISIS terrorists will enter Jordan
pretending to be refugees. VOA and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Nations, World Food Program, WFP,
Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, Egypt, Kenya,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Bashar al-Assad

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*** 3-Dec-14 World View -- Wife and son of ISIS leader al-Baghdadi captured in Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kenya's government in crisis after al-Shabaab kills 36 Christians
• Wife and son of ISIS leader al-Baghdadi captured in Lebanon

****
**** Kenya's government in crisis after al-Shabaab kills 36 Christians
****


Soldiers of Kenyan Defense Forces look over the bodies of some 36 Kenyans killed by al-Shabaab on Tuesday (AP)

On Tuesday, al-Shabaab terrorists killed 36 mainly Christian miners
working in a quarry in northern Kenya, near the border with Somalia.
The 60 or so workers were asked to recite the Shahada, an Islamic
creed declaring oneness with God. Those who couldn't were shot and
killed.

This follows a similar incident that occurred on November 22, when
Al-Shabaab terrorists forced a bus carrying 60 passengers to stop.
They asked the passengers to recite Koranic verses, and those who were
unable to do so were lined up and then killed. 28 people were killed,
19 men and 9 women.

Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta has been facing growing criticisms
ever since al-Shabaab terrorists attacked the Westgate shopping mall
in Nairobi last year, killing 67 people. Facing a political crisis,
Kenyatta on Tuesday announced a government shakeup, and replaced two
of his top security chiefs.

Other Christians working in the same area are in dread for their
lives. Many of them have no money and are in debt, so they're unable
to leave the area. ("You load 16 tons, and what do you get? Another
day older and deeper in debt. Saint Peter don't you call me, cause I
can't go - I owe my soul to the company store." - Tennessee Ernie
Ford) Standard Media (Kenya) and AP and Bloomberg

****
**** Wife and son of ISIS leader al-Baghdadi captured in Lebanon
****

Officials in Lebanon's army say that they've arrested the wife and son
of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the self-describe caliph and leader of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). The pair were
arrested ten days ago as they tried to enter Lebanon from Syria. The
arrests were made in conjunction with American and Western
intelligence sources. It's believed that authorities waited ten days
to announce the capture in order to have time to interrogate the pair
and get information that could be used for a surprise attack on ISIS
or al-Baghdadi himself. For example, she might know where
al-Baghdadi is now, or what routes he uses to travel around.

The name of the captured woman is Saja Hamid al-Dulaimi. It's unclear
whether she actually is one of al-Baghdadi's three wives, or whether
she's a former wife, or whether she's really married to some other
jihadist unrelated to al-Baghdadi. There are also questions about
whether the child who was captured was a boy or a girl. And if
al-Dulaimi is al-Baghdadi's wife, then why was she coming to Lebanon?
Was it to escape from al-Baghdadi, for whatever reason?

Whether al-Dulaimi knows enough to provide useful intelligence is
unknown, but her greatest value may be as a bargaining chip to win the
release of 26 Lebanese security personnel previously kidnapped by
ISIS. Daily Star (Beirut) and Daily Star (Beirut) and CNN and Time


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, al-Shabaab, Somalia,
Uhuru Kenyatta, Tennessee Ernie Ford,
Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Saja Hamid al-Dulaimi, Lebanon,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

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*** 4-Dec-14 World View -- Nigeria mobilizing thousands of vigilantes to fight Boko Haram

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria mobilizing thousands of vigilantes to fight Boko Haram
• Iran strongly denies it's targeting ISIS with airstrikes, despite video

****
**** Nigeria mobilizing thousands of vigilantes to fight Boko Haram
****


Vigilante fighter in Nigeria (AP)

The Nigerian terror group Boko Haram continues to abduct schoolgirls
and to take control of entire villages in the northeastern state of
Adamawa, especially near the border with Cameroon. Nigeria's army
continues to appear to be helpless against Boko Haram, and some
reports indicate that soldiers have been shedding the uniforms and
fleeing when Boko Haram approaches.

Authorities in Adamawa now say they're implementing their own
plan. They plan to mobilize some 4,000 vigilantes from the
local villages. Bala James Nggilari, the governor of
Adamawa, said:

<QUOTE>"The vigilantes and hunters are local people, local
boys who know the terrain. When you bring a soldier from Bayelsa
[in southern Nigeria], for example, who is coming here for the
first time he doesn't know the terrain.

The people we are fighting are also part of the local
community. There is nothing on their forehead that says
'insurgent' but these local hunters are familiar with them, they
know them, they have the native intelligence which the regular
army may not have."<END QUOTE>

These vigilantes, in cooperation with the army, have already retaken
several towns that Boko Haram has captured.

Boko Haram is afraid of these vigilante groups, according to one
resident. The local men know some of the insurgents personally and
would be able to identify them to security forces. For Boko Haram to
operate freely, "they must be sure they overcome those vigilante
groups."

Boko Haram last week attacked Damasak, a town on the Cameroon border,
killing dozens of people. There is evidence that this attack was a
revenge attack against the town's young men who have been joining
anti-Boko Haram vigilante groups. BBC and VOA

****
**** Iran strongly denies it's targeting ISIS with airstrikes, despite video
****

There has been video on al-Jazeera and elsewhere of Iranian war planes
striking ISIS targets in Iraq, and also of Iranian special forces on
the ground in Iraq. American officials have confirmed it. And yet,
Iran's foreign ministry has firmly denied any Iran military presence
in Iraq against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL).

The situation is embarrassing for both America and Iran. American
officials have insisted strenuously that America and Iran are not
cooperating or coordinating air strikes or any other military action
in Iraq, and that that Iraq government was responsible for an
coordination of the two air forces that might be necessary, presumably
to make sure, for example, that American and Iranian war planes don't
crash into each other. That's because the administration doesn't want
to be seen as cooperating in any way with Iran.

It's even worse for the Iranians. The Iranian leadership, starting on
top with the delusional Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
blames everything on "the Zionist regime" (Israel) and the "minions of
Arrogance" (America). To show even the slightest cooperation with
either the Zionist regime or the minions of arrogance would undermine
the entire purpose of his daily rants. In fact, I suspect that the
entire government might collapse if he admitted to cooperating with
the Americans.

There's another reason. Iran and Iraq fought a generational crisis
war in the 1980s, climaxing in 1988. Iraqi Sunnis do not trust the
Shia Iranians in any way, and one of the reasons that many of them
have joined ISIS is because they believe that Iraq's Shia government
in Baghdad is in league with Iran -- which is undoubtedly true. To
admit that Iranian warplanes were bombing targets in Iraq would only
further infuriate the Iraqi Sunnis. The bombing is also making Iran's
Sunni enemies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar nervous.

Still, more and more commentators are noting the irony of Iran and
American working together to oppose ISIS. I wrote ten years ago that
American and Iran would be allies in the coming Clash of Civilizations
world war, and we're seeing that prediction come closer and closer to
confirmation almost every week. With Iran now bombing Sunni targets
in Iraq, it would take only one or two miscalculations to turn this
into a broader sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias. Mehr News (Tehran) and
AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Cameroon, Boko Haram,
Adamawa state, Bala James Nggilari, Damasak,
Iran, Iraq, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Israel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

**** Iran strongly denies it's targeting ISIS with airstrikes, despite video
****

There has been video on al-Jazeera and elsewhere of Iranian war planes
striking ISIS targets in Iraq, and also of Iranian special forces on
the ground in Iraq. American officials have confirmed it. And yet,
Iran's foreign ministry has firmly denied any Iran military presence
in Iraq against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL).

The situation is embarrassing for both America and Iran. American
officials have insisted strenuously that America and Iran are not
cooperating or coordinating air strikes or any other military action
in Iraq, and that that Iraq government was responsible for an
coordination of the two air forces that might be necessary, presumably
to make sure, for example, that American and Iranian war planes don't
crash into each other. That's because the administration doesn't want
to be seen as cooperating in any way with Iran.

It's even worse for the Iranians. The Iranian leadership, starting on
top with the delusional Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
blames everything on "the Zionist regime" (Israel) and the "minions of
Arrogance" (America). To show even the slightest cooperation with
either the Zionist regime or the minions of arrogance would undermine
the entire purpose of his daily rants. In fact, I suspect that the
entire government might collapse if he admitted to cooperating with
the Americans.

There's another reason. Iran and Iraq fought a generational crisis
war in the 1980s, climaxing in 1988. Iraqi Sunnis do not trust the
Shia Iranians in any way, and one of the reasons that many of them
have joined ISIS is because they believe that Iraq's Shia government
in Baghdad is in league with Iran -- which is undoubtedly true. To
admit that Iranian warplanes were bombing targets in Iraq would only
further infuriate the Iraqi Sunnis. The bombing is also making Iran's
Sunni enemies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar nervous.

Still, more and more commentators are noting the irony of Iran and
American working together to oppose ISIS. I wrote ten years ago that
American and Iran would be allies in the coming Clash of Civilizations
world war, and we're seeing that prediction come closer and closer to
confirmation almost every week. With Iran now bombing Sunni targets
in Iraq, it would take only one or two miscalculations to turn this
into a broader sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias. Mehr News (Tehran) and
AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Cameroon, Boko Haram,
Adamawa state, Bala James Nggilari, Damasak,
Iran, Iraq, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Israel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

Permanent web link to this article
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"Welllllllllll .... I know a thing or two about special deals with Iran ....."

http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2...rth-616%29.jpg

*** 5-Dec-14 World View -- AQAP in Yemen bombs Iranian ambassador's house, killing six

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• AQAP in Yemen bombs Iranian ambassador's house, killing six
• AQAP in Yemen threatens to kill journalist not saved by failed US rescue attempt

****
**** AQAP in Yemen bombs Iranian ambassador's house, killing six
****


Aftermath of bombing of Iranian ambassador's home in Sanaa Yemen (Reuters)

A car bomb exploded near the home if Iran's ambassador to Yemen on
Wednesday, killing six people and injuring seventeen. Hossein Niknam
had only just become Iran's ambassador a few days before, and was
apparently the target of the bombing, though he was not at home and
was unharmed.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has claimed responsibility
for the attack. In addition, their statement boasted that "despite
the security precautions put in place by the Yemeni regime forces and
the Houthi political committees, the mujahideen managed to park the
explosive laden vehicle and detonate it at 9:02 am (local time)."

Sectarian Sunni versus Shia violence has been growing in Yemen ever
since the Iran-backed Shia Houthi tribes from northern Yemen invaded
the capital city Sanaa in September and took control of the
government. On October 9, a suicide bomber struck a Houthi
checkpoint, killing 47 people. AQAP are still holding embassy staffer
Nour Ahmad Nikbakht who was abducted in July last year. Saba News (Yemen) and
The National (UAE) and Long War Journal

****
**** AQAP in Yemen threatens to kill journalist not saved by failed US rescue attempt
****

AQAP has threatened to kill 33-year-old Luke Somers, an American
photojournalist born in Britain, whom AQAP kidnapped in
September, 2013 from Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen.

US officials have for the first time public acknowledged
a failed attempt to rescue Somers last month. According to
the White House:

<QUOTE>"As soon as the US government had reliable
intelligence and an operational plan, the president authorized the
Department of Defense to conduct an operation to recover Mr
Somers. Regrettably, Luke was not present."<END QUOTE>

However, in the assault on a cave, US and local security forces
rescued six Yemenis, a Saudi and an Ethiopian, and killed seven Al
Qaeda kidnappers.

AQAP commander Nasser Bin Ali Al Ansi issued a video condemning the
American "stupidities" -- attempts to rescue abducted hostages, and
gave Washington three days to meet al-Qaeda's demands or "otherwise,
the American hostage held by us will meet his inevitable fate." The
video does not specify the demands, but says that Washington is aware
of them. Reuters and AP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Hossein Niknam,
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Nour Ahmad Nikbakht,
Luke Somers, Nasser Bin Ali Al Ansi

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*** 6-Dec-14 World View -- Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers
• Mahmoud Abbas blames Gaza war on lies by Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood

****
**** Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers
****


Publicity poster for Sony's movie 'The Interview'

You may have read some news reports that hackers broke into Sony
Pictures's computer network, downloaded some movies and made them
available for free online. According to the reports, North Korea may
have perpetrated the hacks in retaliation for the pending release of a
move, "The Interview," which is a comedy that mocks North Korea's
easily mockable president Kim Jong-un. North Korea has previously
reacted to news about the film by threatening war.

It turns out that the hacker breach was far more serious than the
release of a couple of movies, and is so widespread and destructive
that Sony may not survive. The hackers downloaded a dozen terabytes
of data, including substantial corporate data and intellectual
property. The data included employee salaries, performance reviews,
criminal background checks, passwords, RSA tokens, global network
maps, email accounts, and 47,000 Social Security numbers. The hackers
are releasing much of that data online. The data includes everything
that a hacker would need to compromise Sony all over again, in the
manner of their choosing.

As bad as that it, it goes far beyond even that to wholesale
large-scale system destruction. The hackers released malware designed
to completely erase all data files throughout Sony's entire network,
including servers and PCs.

The attack was so vicious and so personal that it may well have been a
North Korean attack. However, the hackers had customized the malware
with specific knowledge of Sony's internal networks, indicating that
the hackers may have had help from insider, someone like the American
traitor Snowden.

Other corporations are looking on the Sony situation with horror,
because they know that they could be next. They're appalled at the
seeming ease with which the hackers entered the system, the sheer
volume of data that was released, and the amount of destruction that
was wrought. Any corporation that hasn't been worried about
cybersecurity in the past should start worrying now. Dark Reading and Bloomberg and BBC

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas blames Gaza war on lies by Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood
****

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas on November 30 gave a
lengthy interview on his strategy for dealing with Israel, Egypt and
Hamas. He repeated many things we've described before -- plans to
gain worldwide recognition for the State of Palestine, plans to bring
war crime charges against Israel, opposition to the plan to declare
Israel a "Jewish state," as that would degrade positions of the Arab
Israelis.

Abbas also laid out how the Gaza war began. As we've written in the
past, three Israeli teenagers were abducted on June 10, and their dead
bodies were found on June 30. This triggered a spiral of violence
that led to the Gaza war, and further violence in Jerusalem since
then. Israel accused Hamas of the murders of the teens, and
Hamas denied it. Abbas says that it was this lie by Hamas
that led to the war:

<QUOTE>"We agreed [with Hamas] that we would establish the
[unity government between Hamas and Abbas's Fatah], but that it
would not include a single member of the Hamas movement. This
government was sworn in on June 2,.[2014], and exactly ten days
later, on June 12, they kidnapped the three settlers [near]
Hebron. I tried to avoid creating a crisis. I spoke with [Hamas
political bureau head] Khaled Mash'al and asked him whether Hamas
had anything to do with the kidnapping of the settlers, and he
said: We have nothing to do with it. I wanted him to confirm it
again, and he swore by Allah that they had nothing to do with
it. I told him: I believe you. That was in Doha.

Then the war in Gaza broke out, and I visited Qatar and Turkey to
consult [with them] about the Egyptian initiative. I had a meeting
with the Emir of Qatar, and I asked him [to hold a meeting]
attended by the Hamas leadership and by members of the movement
who were in Qatar. Before this meeting [was held], Hamas member
Salah Al-'Arouri officially declared from Istanbul that it was
Hamas that had kidnapped the three settlers and killed them, in
order to promote Hamas's attempt to mobilize the Palestinians in
the West Bank and Jerusalem. Then I asked Mash'al again about
those involved in the affair, and he said that Al-'Arouri had
spoken for himself, not for Hamas.

I want to say here that no one lies more than them [Hamas] and the
Muslim Brotherhood (MB). I am not against Islam, but I am against
the MB. I am a good Muslim – I fast, I pray, and I read the Koran
– while they are a bunch of liars...

Because of Hamas's lie, this regrettable Gaza war broke out. I
phoned the Egyptian president and asked him to submit a proposal
to stop the war. I clarified that [such] an initiative would save
the Palestinian people, and that it was the entire Palestinian
people that was asking him to do this, not Hamas. [I explained
this because] I sensed from his words that he wanted nothing
whatsoever to do with Hamas. President Al-Sisi met my request,
and the Egyptian initiative was proposed. They [had to] propose it
for 51 days, because of Hamas's obstinacy, and during this time
the land [Gaza] was completely destroyed. On the last day [of the
war], Hamas members begged me to declare a ceasefire with no
reservations or conditions, after many had already been killed and
wounded and Gaza was in ruins.

During the 50-day war, everyone spoke out against me, first of all
Fatah. I told them that I am not willing to destroy the West Bank
and Ramallah. Hamas, for example, killed three [Israelis], and it
wanted an intifada, and I did not respond... At the end of the
war, my men told me: You were right. Had we acted like them [i.e.,
like Hamas], the [entire] land would have been ruined..."

I wondered why Hamas did not accept the reconciliation from the
outset, instead of [allowing] the destruction that was caused in
the [Gaza] Strip. The same thing happened when they blew up the
homes of the Fatah leaders in Gaza recently [on November 7], but
claimed that they were not involved in this and that they were
investigating the incident. They are liars."<END QUOTE>

Abbas simply can't understand why Hamas leaders seem to want a war
that would destroy Gaza when he does not, but this is exactly the kind
of thing that Generational Dynamics explains. Abbas was born in 1935,
and lived through the horrors of the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs
that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. He says, "Had we acted like [Hamas], the entire land
would have been ruined." How did he know that? Because the entire
land was ruined by the 1948 war.

The Hamas leaders are young, and have no personal memory of the
horrors of the 1948 war. They look at Iran's 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, where a popular uprising overwhelmed the existing
government, and installed a hardline Shia government. Using that as a
model, they believe that a war with Israel would bring about a popular
uprising that would destroy the state of Israel, and put a hardline
Sunni government -- governed by Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood -- in
charge of all the Palestinian territories -- that is, the State of
Palestine.

Generational Dynamics predicts that a new war between Jews and Arabs
will in fact take place, though it may not turn out exactly as the
Hamas leaders hope. The state of Israel may or may not survive, but
the Hamas government may not survive either. One thing is pretty
certain: That Abbas's worst fears will come true, and the entire land
will be ruined. And the Hamas leaders, if they survive, will almost
certainly be sorry that the war ever started. MEMRI


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sony, The Interview, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Palestinian Authority, Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas,
Israel, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas blames Gaza war on lies by Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood
****

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas on November 30 gave a
lengthy interview on his strategy for dealing with Israel, Egypt and
Hamas. He repeated many things we've described before -- plans to
gain worldwide recognition for the State of Palestine, plans to bring
war crime charges against Israel, opposition to the plan to declare
Israel a "Jewish state," as that would degrade positions of the Arab
Israelis.

Abbas also laid out how the Gaza war began. As we've written in the
past, three Israeli teenagers were abducted on June 10, and their dead
bodies were found on June 30. This triggered a spiral of violence
that led to the Gaza war, and further violence in Jerusalem since
then. Israel accused Hamas of the murders of the teens, and
Hamas denied it. Abbas says that it was this lie by Hamas
that led to the war:

<QUOTE>"We agreed [with Hamas] that we would establish the
[unity government between Hamas and Abbas's Fatah], but that it
would not include a single member of the Hamas movement. This
government was sworn in on June 2,.[2014], and exactly ten days
later, on June 12, they kidnapped the three settlers [near]
Hebron. I tried to avoid creating a crisis. I spoke with [Hamas
political bureau head] Khaled Mash'al and asked him whether Hamas
had anything to do with the kidnapping of the settlers, and he
said: We have nothing to do with it. I wanted him to confirm it
again, and he swore by Allah that they had nothing to do with
it. I told him: I believe you. That was in Doha.

Then the war in Gaza broke out, and I visited Qatar and Turkey to
consult [with them] about the Egyptian initiative. I had a meeting
with the Emir of Qatar, and I asked him [to hold a meeting]
attended by the Hamas leadership and by members of the movement
who were in Qatar. Before this meeting [was held], Hamas member
Salah Al-'Arouri officially declared from Istanbul that it was
Hamas that had kidnapped the three settlers and killed them, in
order to promote Hamas's attempt to mobilize the Palestinians in
the West Bank and Jerusalem. Then I asked Mash'al again about
those involved in the affair, and he said that Al-'Arouri had
spoken for himself, not for Hamas.

I want to say here that no one lies more than them [Hamas] and the
Muslim Brotherhood (MB). I am not against Islam, but I am against
the MB. I am a good Muslim – I fast, I pray, and I read the Koran
– while they are a bunch of liars...

Because of Hamas's lie, this regrettable Gaza war broke out. I
phoned the Egyptian president and asked him to submit a proposal
to stop the war. I clarified that [such] an initiative would save
the Palestinian people, and that it was the entire Palestinian
people that was asking him to do this, not Hamas. [I explained
this because] I sensed from his words that he wanted nothing
whatsoever to do with Hamas. President Al-Sisi met my request,
and the Egyptian initiative was proposed. They [had to] propose it
for 51 days, because of Hamas's obstinacy, and during this time
the land [Gaza] was completely destroyed. On the last day [of the
war], Hamas members begged me to declare a ceasefire with no
reservations or conditions, after many had already been killed and
wounded and Gaza was in ruins.

During the 50-day war, everyone spoke out against me, first of all
Fatah. I told them that I am not willing to destroy the West Bank
and Ramallah. Hamas, for example, killed three [Israelis], and it
wanted an intifada, and I did not respond... At the end of the
war, my men told me: You were right. Had we acted like them [i.e.,
like Hamas], the [entire] land would have been ruined..."

I wondered why Hamas did not accept the reconciliation from the
outset, instead of [allowing] the destruction that was caused in
the [Gaza] Strip. The same thing happened when they blew up the
homes of the Fatah leaders in Gaza recently [on November 7], but
claimed that they were not involved in this and that they were
investigating the incident. They are liars."<END QUOTE>

Abbas simply can't understand why Hamas leaders seem to want a war
that would destroy Gaza when he does not, but this is exactly the kind
of thing that Generational Dynamics explains. Abbas was born in 1935,
and lived through the horrors of the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs
that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. He says, "Had we acted like [Hamas], the entire land
would have been ruined." How did he know that? Because the entire
land was ruined by the 1948 war.

The Hamas leaders are young, and have no personal memory of the
horrors of the 1948 war. They look at Iran's 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, where a popular uprising overwhelmed the existing
government, and installed a hardline Shia government. Using that as a
model, they believe that a war with Israel would bring about a popular
uprising that would destroy the state of Israel, and put a hardline
Sunni government -- governed by Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood -- in
charge of all the Palestinian territories -- that is, the State of
Palestine.

Generational Dynamics predicts that a new war between Jews and Arabs
will in fact take place, though it may not turn out exactly as the
Hamas leaders hope. The state of Israel may or may not survive, but
the Hamas government may not survive either. One thing is pretty
certain: That Abbas's worst fears will come true, and the entire land
will be ruined. And the Hamas leaders, if they survive, will almost
certainly be sorry that the war ever started. MEMRI


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sony, The Interview, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Palestinian Authority, Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas,
Israel, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood

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There are many Arabs lining up de facto on the side of the Jews. And meanwhile. there are plenty of non Jews and non Arabs lining up on the side of the sub cultural of Arabs who want to fight the Jews. Generally speaking, in the broadest terms, the two sides I speak of are proxies for, respectively, The West and its allies, and, the SCO and its allies. This is our Spanish Civil War. A practice run for the real war.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> There are many Arabs lining up de facto on the side of the
> Jews. And meanwhile. there are plenty of non Jews and non Arabs
> lining up on the side of the sub cultural of Arabs who want to
> fight the Jews. Generally speaking, in the broadest terms, the two
> sides I speak of are proxies for, respectively, The West and its
> allies, and, the SCO and its allies. This is our Spanish Civil
> War. A practice run for the real war.

What do you mean by the SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What do you mean by the SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Yes, that is what he means. His particular vision of how the 4T turns out also includes WWIII, but he thinks it will involve the existing alliance systems.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Yes, that is what he means. His particular vision of how the 4T
> turns out also includes WWIII, but he thinks it will involve the
> existing alliance systems.

Thanks.

.

*** 7-Dec-14 World View -- Obama orders 1000 more troops for Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain will open a new military base in Bahrain
• Obama orders 1000 more troops for Afghanistan

****
**** Britain will open a new military base in Bahrain
****


The base will be an expansion of Bahrain's Mina Salman port, with limited facilities that Britain has been using since 1971

Britain and Bahrain announced a deal for Britain to open a new
military base in Bahrain. The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is also based
in Bahrain, and Britain has been sharing some of its facilities. This
new agreement will permit Britain to substantially expand its presence
in the Mideast. Britain closed all is major bases east of the Suez
canal following major defense spending cuts in 1971, so this agreement
marks the first permanent base in the Mideast since then. According
to Britain's defense secretary:

<QUOTE>"This new base is a permanent expansion of the Royal
Navy's footprint and will enable Britain to send more and larger
ships to reinforce stability in the Gulf."<END QUOTE>

Immediate plans including using the new facilities in the fight
against ISIS. The US has been escalating its military presence in
Iraq and Afghanistan, and it appears that Britain is doing so as well.
Guardian (London) and AFP

****
**** Obama orders 1000 more troops for Afghanistan
****

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced on Saturday
that the administration is increasing by 1,000 the number of soldiers
that the US will keep in Afghanistan next year. Hagel noted that
there has been a particularly violent surge of Taliban attacks in
Kabul recently. "The recent wave of Taliban attacks has made it clear
that the international community must not waver in its support for a
stable, secure and prosperous Afghanistan," he said.

President Obama had promised to have all US troops out of Iraq and
Afghanistan by the end of 2014. He brought in anti-war politician
Hagel as Secretary of Defense in order to complete the withdrawal, but
circumstances, especially the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL), have forced him to order American troops to re-enter
Iraq, and then to continually increase the US presence. ( "8-Nov-14 World View -- Obama sharply escalates U.S. involvement in Iraq war"
) It now appears that
increased Taliban violence is beginning to force a similar escalation
in Afghanistan. Reuters and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Britain, Mina Salman port,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
US Navy Fifth Fleet, Afghanistan, Chuck Hagel

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*** 8-Dec-14 World View -- Bank of International Settlements warns of 'fragile' and 'sensitive' markets

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's warplanes strike Syria, in areas near Damascus
• Egypt continues building buffer zone on Sinai border with Gaza
• Bank of International Settlements warns of 'fragile' and 'sensitive' markets

****
**** Israel's warplanes strike Syria, in areas near Damascus
****


Hezbollah-provided picture of Sunday's Israeli air strike (Al Arabiya)

Syria said on Sunday that Israel's warplanes had bombed areas near
Damascus international airport and in the town of Dimas, near the
border with Lebanon. Syrian state media said that messages had been
sent to the United Nations demanding sanctions against Israel:

<QUOTE>"The messages read that Israel has committed a heinous
crime against the sovereignty of Syria as Israeli warplanes
attacked two safe areas in al-Dimas and near Damascus
International Airport in Damascus Countryside, causing material
damage in a number of institutions there.

The Ministry stressed that the attack is in the framework of
extending help and support to the armed terrorist groups in Syria,
especially after the series of achievements made by the Syrian
army in Deir Ezzor, Aleppo, Daraa and other areas. ...

The attack reflects the Israeli explicit involvement in supporting
the armed terrorist groups in Syria, on top of which Jabhat
al-Nusra, along with well-known regional and western
countries."<END QUOTE>

Israel and Syria have been in a state of war since 1948. Israel
refused comment on the accusations.

It's thought that Israel was striking advanced weaponry or chemical
weapons held by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and in
transit to Hezbollah in Lebanon for use in attacking Israel. However,
a Lebanese TV correspondent reported that Israel struck 10 crucial
intelligence-linked locations in Syria that belong to Iran. SANA (Syria) and Jerusalem Post and Al Arabiya (Saudi Arabia)

****
**** Egypt continues building buffer zone on Sinai border with Gaza
****

Schools in Egypt's North Sinai region along the border with the Gaza
Strip are reopening after ten days closure due to Egypt's
counter-insurgency operations in the area.

Egypt's army is attempting to eliminate "once and for all" the threat
from Hamas terrorists from Gaza, following a massive October 24
terrorist attack with a car bomb that killed 33 Egyptian troops.
Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi labeled the attack an
existential threat to Egypt, and ordered that a buffer zone be built
along the border with Gaza with the objective of eliminating the
smuggling tunnels under the wall that separates Gaza from Sinai.

The original plan was that the buffer zone would be 500 meters
(1/2 km) wide and 13.5 km along the border. However, several
days ago Egypt announced that it would double the width of
the buffer zone to 1 km. According to the state news agency:

<QUOTE>"A decision was taken to increase the buffer zone
along the border in Rafah to one kilometer. The decision ... came
after the discovery of underground tunnels with a total length of
800 to 1,000 meters."<END QUOTE>

Egypt has been demolishing homes in Sinai along the Gaza border
in order to make room for the buffer zone. Egypt originally
announced that 802 homes were to be demolished and 1,156 families
to be relocated. With the doubling of the width of the
buffer zone, it's assume that 1600 homes will be demolished
and 2300 families displaced and relocated.

There has been little international condemnation or interest in
Egypt's plan to demolish 1600 homes. However, there has been a great
deal of international condemnation when Israeli forces demolished the home
of Abdelrahman Shaludi,
a terrorist who had purposely plowed his car into pedestrians on
October 22, killing two people. Daily News Egypt and Daily News Egypt (18-Nov)

****
**** Bank of International Settlements warns of 'fragile' and 'sensitive' markets
****

Last week, on one of days when the Dow Jones Industrial Average
reached a fresh all-time high, I heard one of the male anchor on CNBC
say something like: "The Dow Jones has reached an all-time high 48
times this year. That's the highest number since 1929." The female
anchor said, "What are you saying????" and quickly changed the
subject.

In fact, the near-parabolic spike in stock prices is only one of the
ways that Wall Street is signaling danger. According to Friday's
Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations) on Friday (December 5) has shot up to 19.54. This is far
above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market
is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time.

On October 16, I warned that wild stock market swings
, which are similar to the wild swings that
occurred in October 1929, were particularly dangerous, because the
next wild swing could be sharply downward by hundreds of points.

Now the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is confirming
this view in its quarterly report:

<QUOTE>"These abrupt market movements (in October) were even
more pronounced than similar developments in August, when a sudden
correction in global financial markets was quickly succeeded by
renewed buoyant market conditions.

This suggests that more than a quantum of fragility underlies the
current elevated mood in financial markets. Global equity markets
plummeted in early August and mid-October. Mid-October's extreme
intra-day price movements underscore how sensitive markets have
become to even small surprises."<END QUOTE>

The BIS pointed out that the US dollar has been strengthening
significantly in recent weeks against the euro, the yen, and other
emerging market currencies. This is happening because the Federal
Reserve is cutting back on quantitative easing ("printing money"), at
the same time that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of
Japan (BOJ) have been significantly increasing their quantitative
easing programs. On Friday, there was an unemployment report of a
larger-than-expected rise in U.S. jobs in November, and this sent the
dollar to multi-year highs against the yen and euro.

Many companies in emerging economies have been going increasingly into
debt, just as American companies did in the mid-2000s, leading to the
financial crisis. However, many of the emerging market company debts
are denominated in dollars, and so a significant strengthening of the
dollar means, in effect, that the amount owed is growing
substantially, relative to the country's own currency. This could
force these businesses into bankruptcy, creating a chain reaction of
further bankruptcies. Also, it could force many hedge funds and
businesses to liquidate their assets, such as stocks and bonds, in
order to pay their debts, causing a chain reaction of asset sales,
causing a stock market plunge.

According to one currency analyst, Kit Juckes at Sociéte Générale,
this could have an effect as early as Monday morning:

<QUOTE>"It's the warning that the rising dollar could bring
more (emerging markets) trouble in its wake - as it did in the
1990s - that is going to challenge FX [foreign exchange] markets
tomorrow [Monday] morning while we're all thinking about what the
U.S. non-farm payroll data mean for Fed rate hike
timing."<END QUOTE>

Reuters and AFP and Bank of International Settlements (BIS)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Syria, Damascus, Hezbollah,
Lebanon, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Dimas,
Egypt, Sinai, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Gaza, Hamas,
Abdelrahman Shaludi, Israel,
Bank of International Settlements, BIS,
Sociéte Générale, Kit Juckes, Federal Reserve,
European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of Japan, BOJ

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When oil tumbles, just about everything fares better. The Rockefeller family seemed to know what it was doing.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> When oil tumbles, just about everything fares better. The
> Rockefeller family seemed to know what it was doing.

This is an interesting debate. The oil importing countries are
certainly benefiting enormously from the plunge in oil prices:
Indonesia, India, Taiwan, S Korea, Japan

On the other hand, it's a disaster for several oil exporting countries
-- Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria. It has the potential to
create a domino effect. It's even possible that this will turn out to
be what triggers the real global financial panic and crisis.

Whether the plunge is good or bad for the US has been much debated.
Companies that purchase oil or gasoline are certainly going to
benefit. But on the other hand, the energy sector is responsible for
35% of the country's capital expenditures, and a fall in oil prices,
means those investments are likely to collapse. In particular, many
of fracking companies were started by investments by hedge funds that
were counting on $100 per barrel of oil, and some of those hedge funds
may now collapse.

As of right now, the DJIA is down some 120 points, and that's
being blamed on the fall in oil prices.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...-20-month-lows

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This is an interesting debate. The oil importing countries are
certainly benefiting enormously from the plunge in oil prices:
Indonesia, India, Taiwan, S Korea, Japan

On the other hand, it's a disaster for several oil exporting countries
-- Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria. It has the potential to
create a domino effect. It's even possible that this will turn out to
be what triggers the real global financial panic and crisis.

Whether the plunge is good or bad for the US has been much debated.
Companies that purchase oil or gasoline are certainly going to
benefit. But on the other hand, the energy sector is responsible for
35% of the country's capital expenditures, and a fall in oil prices,
means those investments are likely to collapse. In particular, many
of fracking companies were started by investments by hedge funds that
were counting on $100 per barrel of oil, and some of those hedge funds
may now collapse.

As of right now, the DJIA is down some 120 points, and that's
being blamed on the fall in oil prices.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...-20-month-lows

The US is one of the few countries not greatly affected by the price of oil, due to the dichotomy you alluded to (we are both a producer and a consumer). The only thing that can harm us greatly would be a massive spike in cost (e.g. 200 - 300 per barrel). That is not going to happen again. The demographics and macro are no longer there.

*** 9-Dec-14 World View -- State of Palestine joins the International Criminal Court

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Canada and Britain close their Cairo Egypt embassies over security concerns
• State of Palestine joins the International Criminal Court

****
**** Canada and Britain close their Cairo Egypt embassies over security concerns
****


British Embassy in Cairo

Canada on Monday joined Britain in closing its embassy in Cairo Egypt
over security concerns raised by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL). According to a statement from Canada's foreign
affairs minister:

<QUOTE>"As a security precaution, and to ensure the
protection of Canadian staff, we have closed our embassy in Cairo
for the day. We take the safety of our personnel and our mission
overseas very seriously. We are monitoring events closely and
taking appropriate security measures. ... We don't comment
publicly on security precaution specifics at our
missions."<END QUOTE>

According to the UK government web site, "Public services at the
British Embassy in Cairo are currently suspended. The office of the
British Consulate-General in Alexandria is operating as normal."

The U.S. issued a travel warning, but the Cairo embassy remains open.

The security concerns are thought to be related to recent terrorist
attacks in Egypt, and threats by ISIS. The concerns were heightened
by a suspicious yellow powder sent to multiple Western consulates in
Istanbul, Turkey.

According to an Australian travel advisory:

<QUOTE>"Reports of early December, 2014, indicate that
terrorists may be planning attacks against tourist sites,
government ministries and embassies in Cairo."<END QUOTE>

Decision on whether to reopen the embassies are being made on a day by
day basis. Globe and Mail (Ottawa) and UK Government

****
**** State of Palestine joins the International Criminal Court
****

Carrying through on his threat, Palestinian Authority president
Mahmoud Abbas joined the International Criminal Court (ICC) with
observer status on Monday. In doing so, the PA came one step closer
to seeking membership in the ICC in order to bring war crimes
accusations against Israel for the Gaza war earlier this year. At
present, Palestine has the same observer status as the US, Russia,
China, India or any other country that is not a signatory of the Rome
Statute.

However, if the ICC takes jurisdiction over crimes committed in the
Israel-Palestine conflict, then both sides would have to be held
accountable. The Palestinians would have to deal with the following
problems:

• They would have to prove that Israel's targets were not
  legitimate military targets, and that the intention was to cause
  indiscriminate or disproportionate harm to civilians. This would be
  difficult to prove, since armed Palestinian militias were launching
  rockets from within the civilian population.
  
• Under its rules, the ICC could only proceed if there were no
  genuine domestic investigations or prosecutions. Israel has already
  initiated its own investigations of at least some of the incidents of
  civilian deaths in Gaza.
  
• On the other hand, Israel could make a much more straightforward
  case that Hamas's firing of rockets and missiles at Israeli
  communities had the intention of causing indiscriminate or
  disproportionate harm to civilians, especially since Palestinian
  military leaders have stated on numerous occasions that they consider
  Israeli civilians to be legitimate military targets.

For those reasons, Abbas may completely avoid making charges related
to the Gaza war and, instead, accuse Israel of human rights violations
in the West Bank. Al Jazeera and Open Democracy

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Canada, Britain, Cairo, Egypt, Australia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, State of Palestine,
International Criminal Court, ICC, Gaza

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*** 11-Dec-14 World View -- UN says nations should make saving migrants' lives the highest priority

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• No World View column yesterday
• Russia deploys nuclear capable missiles into occupied Crimea
• UN says nations should make saving migrants' lives the highest priority
• Wall Street sell-off deepens as oil prices plummet

****
**** No World View column yesterday
****

Due to circumstances beyond my control, there was no World View column
yesterday. My apologies to anyone who was inconvenienced.

****
**** Russia deploys nuclear capable missiles into occupied Crimea
****


Iskander mobile missile system (Russia Today)

Russia is deploying nuclear capable Iskander missiles in Ukraine's
Crimea peninsula, which is occupied by Russia in violation of
international law, unapproved by the UN Security Council. Iskander
systems could be fitted with up to ten different types of warhead,
including tactical nuclear warheads, which can be transported to
Crimea in a matter of hours.

This is part of a project to build up Russia's existing military
infrastructure in occupied Crimea, particularly associated with the
basing of its Black Sea Fleet, to extend its level of control in the
Black Sea region more broadly. Nato commander General Philip
Breedlove has expressed his concern about what he described as
Russia’s "militarization of Crimea," which received widespread
publicity in Moscow. He also noted the increasing numbers of weapons
in Crimea and cruise missiles, which could affect the regional
military balance.

Last year, Moscow confirmed the deployment of Iskander missiles in
Kaliningrad, on the border with Nato and the Baltic states. Combined
with a deployment of the system to occupied Crimea, NATO’s eastern
flank is heavily exposed to the capabilities of the Iskander.
Jamestown and Russia Today (16-Dec-2013)

****
**** UN says nations should make saving migrants' lives the highest priority
****

UN human rights chief Antonio Guterres is calling many countries
"mean-spirited" for making keeping migrants out a higher priority than
saving migrants' lives. According to Guterres:

<QUOTE>"This is a mistake, and precisely the wrong reaction
for an era in which record numbers of people are fleeing wars.
Security and immigration management are concerns for any country,
but policies must be designed in a way that human lives do not end
up becoming collateral damage."<END QUOTE>

According to the UN, there have been at least a record-breaking
348,000 "boat people" so far this year, migrants who risked traveling
over water to go to another country:

• Europe, surrounded by the Libya, Ukraine and Syria/Iraq
  conflicts, had 207,000 sea arrivals, up from the last high of 70,000
  in 2011. Half of the arrivals were from Syria and Eritrea.
• In the Horn of Africa region 82,680 people crossed the Gulf of
  Aden and Red Sea mainly from Ethiopia and Somalia to Yemen and Saudi
  Arabia.
• In Southeast Asia, 54,000 people have crossed from Bangladesh or
  Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia or Indonesia.
• In the Caribbean, at least 4,775 people crossed in search of
  asylum.

Related to the increasing flood of refugees are the unprecedented
numbers of countries in crisis. For the first time, the UN has
declared five "Level 3" humanitarian crises: West Africa (Ebola),
Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, and the Central African Republic. Many
crises are centered in the Palestine region, with a population that
grew from 600,000 a century ago to 12 million today -- the most rapid
population growth in the world.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are many
simultaneous trends -- population growth, increased food prices,
increased nationalism, increased recklessness, increased fragility of
the global economy -- that are leading to a new world war in the
current generational crisis era. And to emphasize the point, the BBC
is reporting that 5,000 people worldwide have been killed by jihadist
attacks in November alone. Euro News and UN High Commissioner for Refugees and AFP

****
**** Wall Street sell-off deepens as oil prices plummet
****

As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Bank of International Settlements
is confirming the view that the wild swings in the stock market are
similar to those that occurred just before the 1929 crash, and are
extremely dangerous today. ( "8-Dec-14 World View -- Bank of International Settlements warns of 'fragile' and 'sensitive' markets"
)

Analysts are blaming the three-day sell-off in Wall Street stocks,
capped on Wednesday with a fall of 268 points in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, on a dramatic plunge in the price of oil. West
Texas Intermediate oil fell to $59 dollars a barrel on Wednesday,
before closing at $61.21, and OPEC predicted reduced oil demand next
year, suggesting that oil prices will go a lot lower. It's thought
that the plunge in oil prices is a proxy for slowing economies in
Europe and Asia.

According to one analyst I heard on Wednesday, this is a "global
margin call." 15 of the 20 largest sovereign wealth funds get their
money from oil, and now they're being forced to sell their assets as
their oil-linked investments plummet in value. As with any
broad-based margin call, this is causing a chain reaction that's
affecting markets around the world.

The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuation index) is above 19,
which is astronomically than the historic average of 14. This
indicates that the stock market is in a huge bubble which, like all
bubbles, has to implode at some point. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, this could happen at any time. It remains to
be seen whether the current round of volatility settles down.
CNBC and Fortune


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Iskander,
Black Sea, Nato, Philip Breedlove,
UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres,
West Africa, Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, Central African Republic,
OPEC, oil prices

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 11-Dec-14 World View -- UN says nations should make saving migrants' lives the highest priority

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• No World View column yesterday
• Russia deploys nuclear capable missiles into occupied Crimea
• UN says nations should make saving migrants' lives the highest priority
• Wall Street sell-off deepens as oil prices plummet

****
**** No World View column yesterday
****

Due to circumstances beyond my control, there was no World View column
yesterday. My apologies to anyone who was inconvenienced.

****
**** Russia deploys nuclear capable missiles into occupied Crimea
****


Iskander mobile missile system (Russia Today)

Russia is deploying nuclear capable Iskander missiles in Ukraine's
Crimea peninsula, which is occupied by Russia in violation of
international law, unapproved by the UN Security Council. Iskander
systems could be fitted with up to ten different types of warhead,
including tactical nuclear warheads, which can be transported to
Crimea in a matter of hours.

This is part of a project to build up Russia's existing military
infrastructure in occupied Crimea, particularly associated with the
basing of its Black Sea Fleet, to extend its level of control in the
Black Sea region more broadly. Nato commander General Philip
Breedlove has expressed his concern about what he described as
Russia’s "militarization of Crimea," which received widespread
publicity in Moscow. He also noted the increasing numbers of weapons
in Crimea and cruise missiles, which could affect the regional
military balance.

Last year, Moscow confirmed the deployment of Iskander missiles in
Kaliningrad, on the border with Nato and the Baltic states. Combined
with a deployment of the system to occupied Crimea, NATO’s eastern
flank is heavily exposed to the capabilities of the Iskander.
Jamestown and Russia Today (16-Dec-2013)

****
**** UN says nations should make saving migrants' lives the highest priority
****

UN human rights chief Antonio Guterres is calling many countries
"mean-spirited" for making keeping migrants out a higher priority than
saving migrants' lives. According to Guterres:

<QUOTE>"This is a mistake, and precisely the wrong reaction
for an era in which record numbers of people are fleeing wars.
Security and immigration management are concerns for any country,
but policies must be designed in a way that human lives do not end
up becoming collateral damage."<END QUOTE>

According to the UN, there have been at least a record-breaking
348,000 "boat people" so far this year, migrants who risked traveling
over water to go to another country:

• Europe, surrounded by the Libya, Ukraine and Syria/Iraq
  conflicts, had 207,000 sea arrivals, up from the last high of 70,000
  in 2011. Half of the arrivals were from Syria and Eritrea.
• In the Horn of Africa region 82,680 people crossed the Gulf of
  Aden and Red Sea mainly from Ethiopia and Somalia to Yemen and Saudi
  Arabia.
• In Southeast Asia, 54,000 people have crossed from Bangladesh or
  Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia or Indonesia.
• In the Caribbean, at least 4,775 people crossed in search of
  asylum.

Related to the increasing flood of refugees are the unprecedented
numbers of countries in crisis. For the first time, the UN has
declared five "Level 3" humanitarian crises: West Africa (Ebola),
Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, and the Central African Republic. Many
crises are centered in the Palestine region, with a population that
grew from 600,000 a century ago to 12 million today -- the most rapid
population growth in the world.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are many
simultaneous trends -- population growth, increased food prices,
increased nationalism, increased recklessness, increased fragility of
the global economy -- that are leading to a new world war in the
current generational crisis era. And to emphasize the point, the BBC
is reporting that 5,000 people worldwide have been killed by jihadist
attacks in November alone. Euro News and UN High Commissioner for Refugees and AFP

****
**** Wall Street sell-off deepens as oil prices plummet
****

As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Bank of International Settlements
is confirming the view that the wild swings in the stock market are
similar to those that occurred just before the 1929 crash, and are
extremely dangerous today. ( "8-Dec-14 World View -- Bank of International Settlements warns of 'fragile' and 'sensitive' markets"
)

Analysts are blaming the three-day sell-off in Wall Street stocks,
capped on Wednesday with a fall of 268 points in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, on a dramatic plunge in the price of oil. West
Texas Intermediate oil fell to $59 dollars a barrel on Wednesday,
before closing at $61.21, and OPEC predicted reduced oil demand next
year, suggesting that oil prices will go a lot lower. It's thought
that the plunge in oil prices is a proxy for slowing economies in
Europe and Asia.

According to one analyst I heard on Wednesday, this is a "global
margin call." 15 of the 20 largest sovereign wealth funds get their
money from oil, and now they're being forced to sell their assets as
their oil-linked investments plummet in value. As with any
broad-based margin call, this is causing a chain reaction that's
affecting markets around the world.

The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuation index) is above 19,
which is astronomically than the historic average of 14. This
indicates that the stock market is in a huge bubble which, like all
bubbles, has to implode at some point. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, this could happen at any time. It remains to
be seen whether the current round of volatility settles down.
CNBC and Fortune


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Iskander,
Black Sea, Nato, Philip Breedlove,
UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres,
West Africa, Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, Central African Republic,
OPEC, oil prices

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Iskanders are a violation of the INF Treaty. In truth, that was a pie crust treaty if there ever was one. The US always sucked when it came to TEL technology (recall the silly "dragged sled" proposed for the canceled MX). Meanwhile the Russians, Chinese and all the knock offs thereof have had outstanding TELs for decades. TEL technology is great for cheating on treaties. Mobility can turn one man's SRBM into a proscribed IRBM. The Ruskis always have countered that our large arsenal of cruise missiles makes up for our terrible lack of TEL based missiles. But that's hogwash, since the Russian cruise missile technology has a greater range then ours, and their fuel sipping Tu-95 does not need to tanker up as frequently as our Buffs, B1s and B2s. Tu-95 has longer range and better global projection, the tradeoff being slower speed due to the ultra high bypass prop-fan power plants.

*** 12-Dec-14 World View -- Palestinians threaten to halt security coordination with Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinians threaten to halt security coordination with Israel
• Palestinian Authority decides on actions following death of Ziad Abu Ain

****
**** Palestinians threaten to halt security coordination with Israel
****


Funeral for Ziad Abu Ain in Ramallah on Thursday (AP)

The death of a Palestinian Cabinet minister following a clash with
Israeli police has caused the Palestinian Authority (PA) to make a
series of threats, including a halt to security coordination with
Israel.

The Cabinet minister, Ziad Abu Ain, had been participating in a
confrontation between Palestinian protesters and Israeli soldiers. At
one point, an Israeli grabbed Abu Ain by the throat and pushed him.
After the confrontation, Abu Ain spoke to tv cameras, and the
collapsed. An autopsy showed that he had a major heart attack. The
Israelis are saying that he would have had a heart attack sooner or
later anyway. The Palestinians are saying that the heart attack was
the direct fault of the Israeli soldiers, who caused Abu Ain to have
"anguish and stress." Abu Ain was the PA Cabinet minister in charge
of organizing protests against Israeli settlements and the West Bank
separation barrier.

The death of Abu Ain has (further) infuriated the Palestinians,
leading the PA to threaten to end security cooperation with Israel.
If this occurs it will be a major big deal. It would mean that the
Palestinians themselves would not take any further responsibility for
any kind of crime occurring the West Bank, and that Israel, as the
"occupying power," would be responsible for all West Bank security.
The cooperation agreement is very unpopular with the Palestinians,
because it often means that Palestinians are prevented by other
Palestinians from violence and protests against Israeli settlements.

Although the PA is making this threat, it's not thought that PA
president Mahmoud Abbas with go through with it. As I've written many
times, Abbas was born in 1935, and survived the horrific 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that following the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel. Like most survivors of
generational crisis wars, Abbas has literally devoted his life to
doing everything possible to prevent that horrific kind of war from
occurring again. As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics
predicts that he will not succeed in preventing that horrific war,
though he may continue to postpone it.

In this case, Abbas is well aware that ending the security cooperation
agreement with Israel is a sure-fire way to create a lot more
confrontations between Palestinians and Israelis, may well be all
that's needed to trigger the new war between Jews and Arabs that Abbas
has devoted his life to trying to prevent. AP and CNN

****
**** Palestinian Authority decides on actions following death of Ziad Abu Ain
****

According to senior Palestinian official Saeb Erekat, in an interview
on al-Jazeera, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has tentatively decided
to take six actions in response to the death of Ziad Abu Ain (my
transcription, sometimes edited for clarity):

• "We will submit a security council resolution. Our Arab draft
  resolution specifies a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with
  Jerusalem as its capital, to be established within a specific time
  frame."
  
• "Abbas will sign the accession to the International Criminal
  Court." Note: This would make it possible for the ICC to take up the
  PA's charges against Israel of crimes against humanity.
  
• "We've asked the higher contracting parties to the Geneva
  Conventions to convene in Geneva this month to make sure of the
  applicability of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 to the West
  Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem." Note: The Fourth Geneva Convention on
  Rules of War was adopted in August 1949 in response to Nazi atrocities
  during World War II. The treaty governs the treatment of civilians
  during wartime, including hostages, diplomats, spies, bystanders and
  civilians in territory under military occupation. The convention
  outlaws torture, collective punishment and the resettlement by an
  occupying power of its own civilians on territory under its military
  control.
  
• "Abbas has sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
  urging him to establish a special regime for international
  protection."
  
• "The Palestinian leadership decided to define its relations with
  Israel -- meaning and very clearly -- cessation of security
  cooperation, and at the same time asking Israel, the occupying power,
  to resume its full responsibilities."
  
• "We decided to accelerate our [PA/Hamas] reconciliation
  immediately, because that's the best way to face such
  atrocities."

The Palestinian Authority will meet on Sunday to decide how to move
forward on these actions. Irish Times and Jewish Virtual Library

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Palestinian Authority, Israel,
Mahmoud Abbas, Ziad Abu Ain, Saeb Erekat

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