*** 13-Dec-14 World View -- Stocks plunge again, as economy spirals into deflation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Stocks plunge again, as economy spirals into deflation
• Russia may pause military hostilities in Ukraine for the winter
• Uganda calls for mass Africa pullout from International Criminal Court

****
**** Stocks plunge again, as economy spirals into deflation
****


NY Stock Exchange

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 315 points on Friday, capping
off a brutal 3.8% fall this week on Wall Street. In Europe, Britain's
FTSE fell 2.5%, Germany's DAX fell 2.7%, and France's CAC 40 fell
2.8%.

Oil prices continued their free fall, into the below-$60 range. West
Texas Intermediate oil fell 3.6% to $57.81 per barrel, down 12.6% for
the week.

Also on Friday, the Dept. of Commerce announced the wholesale prices
(Producer Price Index) fell 0.2% in November, faster than the 0.1%
fall predicted by analysts.

The fall in wholesale prices was led by a fall in overall energy
costs. Those prices fell 3.1% on the month, due to a sharp drop in
the cost of petroleum products. Energy prices have declined for five
straight months. The gasoline index declined 6.3% in November.
Home-heating oil costs fell 2.8% and diesel-fuel prices declined
3.5%. From a year earlier, energy prices were down 5.9%, according to
the producer measure.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the plunge in stock prices has pushed the S&P
500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning
(December 12) down to an astronomically high 18.66, down from the even
more astronomically high 19.54 from last Friday (December 7). This is
far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock
market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational
Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or
lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow
Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

As I've been saying for years, starting in 2003, Generational Dynamics
predicts that the economy is in a deflationary spiral. Since
mainstream economists have been predicting inflation and
hyperinflation, it's pretty clear that mainstream economists don't
have the vaguest clue what's going on. Today's reports may
give them pause.

One more warning: Hedge funds and other investors now have the entire
weekend to think about what they're going to do next, and they may all
reach the same decisions -- up or down. The major plunges of the 1929
crash and the 1987 false crash both occurred on Monday. So we may
know by midday Monday whether the stock market is going to continue
plunging, or whether it's going to recover in the short run. USA Today and Bloomberg and Nasdaq

****
**** Russia may pause military hostilities in Ukraine for the winter
****

In the last few days, Russian military attacks on Ukrainian positions
in east Ukraine have markedly subsided, and Russia's state media has
cooled its rhetoric on the highly nationalistic "Novorossiya" (New
Russia) project, referring all of southern and eastern Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian General Staff estimates, Russian troops in
Donbas currently total 32,000, including between 6,000 and 10,000
regular Russian Army personnel, the remainder being irregulars
recruited locally and from Russia. But the Russian troops have
avoided full scale conflict, for fear that the West would impose
further sanctions. Instead, the troops transitioned to a kind of
positional warfare, but have failed to make any gains against the
Ukrainian forces in doing so. In particular, the Ukrainians
have blocked Russian probing moves on Mariupol, and the land
route from Russia to occupied Crimea.

Part of the calculation is that Russia's economy is heading for
disaster. Putin’s policy of state and crony capitalism plus
protectionism has eliminated Russia’s economic growth. Since July,
Western sanctions have stopped all refinancing of Russian foreign
debt, whether private or public. Since June, the price of oil has
fallen by 40 percent and with it the ruble exchange rate. These
three factors are likely to worsen.

Russia's adventures in Ukraine, while politically popular, have been
extremely costly for Russia. Now that Russia has invaded, occupied
and annexed Crimea, Moscow is saddled with annexation costs and
providing any humanitarian aid that's necessary. In east Ukraine,
Russia must provide for an estimated 3.5-4 million people that live on
on the territory that Russia occupies. Russia is now preparing its
tenth humanitarian convoy of hundreds of trucks with food, medicines
and other supplies, but these are only a temporary emergency
procedure.

There's a debate among economists as to how long Russia can continue
in this way. It's true that Russia has hundreds of billions of
dollars in foreign reserves that it can tap, but it's also true that
Russia's economy may be in a downward spiral. So it now appears that
Russia is going to pause for the winter in order to consolidate its
gains, and make plans for warmer weather. Jamestown and Peterson Institute for International Economics

****
**** Uganda calls for mass Africa pullout from International Criminal Court
****

Uganda's president Yoweri Museveni said Friday that at the next
meeting of the African Union, set for January 30-31, he will
propose that all African countries withdraw from the
International Criminal Court (ICC)

<QUOTE>"I will bring a motion to the next sitting of the
African Union to have all African states withdraw from the court,
then they [Western nations] can be left alone with their own
court. They have used it as a tool to target
Africa."<END QUOTE>

Museveni's remarks came just a few days after an ICC case targeting
the president of Kenya collapsed in an embarrassing debacle. Museveni
accused the West of using the ICC to destabilize African nations.

Although that ICC does appear to have targeted Africa, that's only
because war crimes trials for other countries have taken place in
other courts. There are trials targeting the Khmer Rouge for their
alleged war crimes in Cambodia's "killing fields" war in the 1970s,
but that trial is being held in the "Extraordinary Chambers in the
Courts of Cambodia" (ECCC) in Angk Snuol, Cambodia.

There's a trial targeting Ratko Mladic for atrocities committed at the
1995 Srebrenica massacre in the Bosnian war, but that trial is being
conducted in the "International Criminal Tribunal for the former
Yugoslavia" in The Hague.

There were trials in 1945 for Nazi war criminals, but they were held
in special courts in Nuremberg, Germany. Japan's war crimes trials
were held in 1946 in the International Military Tribunal for the Far
East (IMTFE) in Tokyo.

So, taken as a whole, war crimes courts have certainly not
specifically targeted Africa.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these war crime
trials are only for political show, and will do nothing to prevent war
crimes in future. AFP and Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Dow Jones Industrial Average,
West Texas Intermediate, wholesale prices,
Russia, Ukraine, Novorossiya,
Uganda, Kenya, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia, ECCC,
Srebrenica massacre, Bosnian War, Nuremberg,
International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia,
International Military Tribunal for the Far East, IMTFE

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*** 14-Dec-14 World View -- The GCC honeymoon: Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gulf Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement
• The newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
• The GCC honeymoon: Pragmatic attitude towards Israel and Iran

****
**** Gulf Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement
****


Gulf Cooperation Council meeting, December 9 (AFP)

The Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) has succeeded in getting through
its summit meeting last week, apparently in relative harmony. (See
"21-Nov-14 World View -- Gulf nations paper over their differences for GCC Summit in December"
)

It's being called a "historic turning point" for the GCC, with
potentially far-reaching consequences, because the GCC members have
stopped quibbling with each other, and have unified against their
common enemies.

As I've written several times in the last few months, the Gaza war has
brought about a major Mideast realignment
, splitting the GCC members apart. Egypt was the
catalyst for this split, at two points. First, when Egypt's army
ousted democratically elected Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood government, and replaced him with former army general
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who proceeded with a very bloody crackdown on
the Muslim Brotherhood, Muslim Brotherhood supporters Turkey and Qatar
turned vehemently against al-Sisi, while Saudi Arabia supported him.

Second, when the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas began this summer,
al-Sisi supported Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and turned
against Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. In addition,
Iran supported Hamas against Israel. This created a de facto
realignment of the Mideast, with Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia
plus the Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar
plus Turkey plus Iran.

****
**** The newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
****

The reasons being given for this newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
is that a unified GCC stance is necessary "to stop ... attempts led
by neighboring countries to intervene in Arab affairs." The
two countries referenced are:

• Turkey has been "meddling" in Egypt's affairs by encouraging
  the Muslim Brotherhood to oppose al-Sisi. Also, in a recent speech,
  Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a crowd of his supporters
  that no one can question Turkey's right to intervene in Egypt, Syria,
  Iraq, Palestine and Bosnia and Herzegovina -- countries that were once
  part of Turkey's Ottoman Empire.
  
• Iran, the historic enemy of Saudi Arabia, is encouraging Shia
  uprisings in Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

According to the final communiqué issued by the summit:

<blockqoute>"On Egypt, the Supreme Council reiterated its firm
position in support of the Republic of Egypt and President Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi’s roadmap, stressing the Council’s full support and
stand with the people and Government of Egypt in achieving
stability and prosperity. The Council underscored the role of
Egypt at Arab and regional levels for the benefit of both the Arab
and Islamic countries."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

The communiqué also indicates unanimous opposition to the al-Qaeda
linked terrorists in Syria and Iraq:

<QUOTE>"The Supreme Council welcomed the UN Security Council
resolution No 2170 in August in 2014, under Chapter VII, which
condemned the spread of serious human rights violations by
terrorist groups, including terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, in
particular the Daash and Al Nusra Front, and the sanctions imposed
on individuals associated with these groups."<END QUOTE>

"Daash" is the contemptuous Arabic name for the the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

So everything's agreeable. Is there any trouble in paradise? The
problem is that the communiqué doesn't mention Israel, Hamas, or the
Palestinian Authority. The only mention of Gaza is the following:

<QUOTE>"The Supreme Council praised the results of the Gaza
reconstruction conference, which was held in Cairo in October
2014."<END QUOTE>

Well that's nice, but are all the GCC nations really going to turn
against Hamas, which would make all the member nations de facto
allies of Israel and the Palestinian Authority? How long is
this pleasantness going to last?

Well, at the very least, we can understand the old Arab saying, "The
enemy of my enemy is my friend." Eurasia Review/Arab News and Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Saudi-US Relations Information Service

****
**** The GCC honeymoon: Pragmatic attitude towards Israel and Iran
****

An explanation of the GCC compromise with respect to Iran and Israel
was given in a television interview by a Saudi writer, Abdullah
Hamidaddin. Does Israel pose a threat to Saudi Arabia? His answer
was characterized by extreme pragmatism:

<QUOTE>"No. Israel is a troublemaker in the region, but it
poses a threat to the Palestinians, not to the Saudis. This has
nothing to do with the fact that the Palestinians have
rights. Israel is an aggressor on many levels. It is an unjust
country. We condemn the violence that we witness day and day
out. I am not talking about Israel's injustice towards the
Palestinians ...

It is imperative to distinguish between the two. The pan-Arabists
and the Islamists believe that because Israel occupied an Arab or
Muslim country, it must be annihilated as a matter of principle.

I have a different perspective. There is no doubt that Israel
plundered [Arab] land, but today the region is divided into
countries, one of which is Saudi Arabia. Israel attacked the land
of others, not my own land. By no means am I justifying this
attack, but with all its evils, it does not pose a threat to the
Saudi state or the Saudi citizens."<END QUOTE>

The interview pointed out that according to the official and declared
Saudi position, the Palestinian cause is the cause of all the Arabs.

<QUOTE>"There are two reasons for this. First, there is a
real problem. Israel's crisis with the Palestinians has generated
a regional problem. This crisis has ramifications – although, by
the way, these ramifications are highly exaggerated.

The second reason is the need to align with the general [Arab]
position. King Abdullah's 2003 initiative involved complete
normalization, and it was signed by all the Arabs, including
Syria. People were convinced that relations with Israel could be
normalized, and that we could have coexistence with it, on
condition that the problem in the West Bank and Gaza was resolved.

It is in Israel's interest for the problem to remain
unresolved. Israel is not a peaceful country. It is a very
oppressive country towards its Palestinian neighbors, and it does
whatever it can do to prolong the problem, because it benefits
from it."<END QUOTE>

Hamidaddin concluded by saying that the Arabs have wasted resources
attacking Israel in the past:

<QUOTE>"No, but I want to focus on the issues that affect
me. If Israel does not pose a strategic national threat, we should
not treat it as if it does. ...

[Israel did not create the threats coming from Iraq and Iran.]
No, it was us. Since the 1960s, when we turned Israel into a
problem, we have wasted our resources. Since the 1950s, the Arabs
have spent billions on the conflict with Israel, and have
sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives. The outcome is that we
are in decline, whereas Israel is on the rise. If we had treated
the Palestinian cause differently right from the start, we would
have been today stronger and more capable than Israel, and the
Palestinians would have been better off."<END QUOTE>

So is the GCC crisis over? Another Saudi columnist, Salman Aldossary,
suggests that the honeymoon may not last, and that the worst may
be yet to come:

<QUOTE>"It is premature to think that the crisis has been
completely resolved. We should admit that only some of the roots
of the problem have been addressed. In addition, some details
remain vague. Perhaps the coming months will be sufficient to
demonstrate if the good intentions that have been expressed about
putting the GCC’s general interests above the narrow ones of its
member states are genuine. It should not be overlooked, however,
that this acute crisis produced fierce reactions that went beyond
those of previous inter-Gulf disputes. This was the case when some
sides, affiliated with some parties involved in the dispute,
lashed out at certain states or figures. These incidents will
definitely not be forgiven, no matter how hard those who were
responsible for them try to reach out to their brothers. There is
a big difference between disagreeing with someone and registering
one’s position through objective criticism on the one hand, and
throwing the worst insults at someone on the other. It is true
that the Gulf states have overcome their political differences and
are quite pragmatic, but they do not forget personal differences
and the insults that accompany them.

The GCC [has witnessed] a honeymoon period in the run-up to its
forthcoming annual summit. ... Who knows, the honeymoon may last
throughout the next year. ...

It would be dangerous if the crisis returned and the wound opened
once again, God forbid. In this case, the crisis would certainly
be more extreme, dangerous, and complex than before, and would
produce decisions whose impact no one will be able to comprehend.

May the honeymoon last forever! Nevertheless, wishes need to be
accompanied by deeds."<END QUOTE>

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new war between
Arabs and Israelis, refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs
that following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. Memri and
Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Kuwait, Oman,
Israel, Iran, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Ottoman Empire, Yemen, Hamas, Gaza, Palestinian Authority,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daash

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*** 15-Dec-14 World View -- Lynchings of 43 students revive the Mexican Revolution fault lines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Lynchings of 43 students revive the Mexican Revolution
• Oil production to increase despite, or because of, crashing prices

****
**** Lynchings of 43 students revive the Mexican Revolution
****


Wanted poster for Pancho Villa - March 9, 1916. He was wanted in Columbus, New Mexico, for killing American citizens in Mexico

On September 26, a group of 43 students in a rural teachers' college
in Ayotzinapa, Guerrero, in southern Mexico all disappeared, while
traveling to the town of Iguala for an anti-government demonstration.
At first it was believed that criminals from drug cartels had abducted
and killed the students. But later it turned out that José Luis
Abarca, the former mayor of Iguala, working hand in hand with the
police and the drug traffickers, ordered the lynchings. The 43
students were believed to be burned and dumped, though only the
remains of one have been found. Abarca was later arrested by
federal officers and charged with murder.

These atrocities led to violent mass protests in Mexico City last
month. They are inflaming the fault lines of the Mexican Revolution
of the 1910s. Mexico's last crisis war was the Mexican Revolution,
running from 1910-1922, so Mexico is deep into a generational Crisis
era, and overdue for a new crisis war, from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics.

Mexico is like other Latin American countries in that the major fault
lines are between the indigenous peoples ("Amerindians") and the
indigenous descendants of French and Spanish invaders. The indigenous
peoples in Mexico are the Mayans in the south and the Aztecs and
Comancheros in the north. The French and Spanish descendants
generally live in the center, around Mexico City. During the Mexican
Revolution of the 1910s, Pancho Villa (from the north) was the leader,
along with Emiliano Zapata, of the indigenous rebel insurgency groups
in the south.

Ayotzinapa is in a region populated mostly by indigenous Mayan
descendants. The students were called "normalistas" because they went
to a "normal" college, one of those that were set up in the 1920s,
following the Mexican Revolution, to help the poor indigenous people.

José Luis Abarca was born nearby in Arcelia, Guerrero. He started out
poor but got into the gold business and, as a member of the Democratic
Revolution Party (PRD), became mayor of Iguala in June 2012, despite
having no political experience. He and his wife María de los Ángeles
had ruled as "the Imperial Couple." Three of María's brothers were
drug traffickers, but had been killed or captured.

The atrocities and massive corruption are pushing all the buttons of
the indigenous activists. From the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, Mexico is headed for a new war, refighting the Mexican
Revolution of the 1910s along the fault line separating the people of
European ancestry versus the indigenous peoples. This war may spread
into southwestern United States, as there are Aztec descendants in the
Aztlán movement who claim that the southwest really belongs to them,
and was their ancestral homeland. Reuters and Vice News and Yucatan Times

****
**** Oil production to increase despite, or because of, crashing prices
****

Oil prices have been plunging due to increased supply from US shale
production (fracking), and due to falling demand caused by a slowing
world economy. The oil importing countries (Indonesia, India, Taiwan,
South Korea, Japan) are benefiting enormously from the plunge in oil
prices, while it's a disaster for several oil exporting countries --
Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria. Saudi Arabia has announced it
will try to increase oil production, presumably in the hope of putting
the US fracking industry out of business.

An analysis by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) that may
shed some light on what's going on. Even though the price of oil is
plummeting, US fracking production is going to continue increasing,
though perhaps slightly less rapidly than has been previously
predicted.


Oil production in 2014. WTI is West Texas Intermediate (EIA)

The graph on the left shows that drilling permits have been holding
steady, while the number of rigs has fallen slightly. The graph on
the right shows that oil production continues to increase, despite the
fall in oil prices.

The existing wells are backed by hedge funds and junk bonds that are
now in distress because of the fall in prices. As a result,
production in the existing wells will actually be increased as much as
physically possible, to generate revenue at low oil prices to meet
margin calls for these junk bonds.

It occurs to me that the Saudis may be in a similar situation. They
may also have shaky investments backing up their oil wells, and so
they too would have to keep production as high as possible to make
their own margin calls.

This is a good illustration of how deflation feeds on itself, and how
some deflation causes more deflation, almost as if were caused by a
deflationary attitude. By the law of supply and demand, falling
prices normally should cause production to decrease. But the current
situation we're in, a highly leverage debt bubble, is an anomalous
situation. Falling oil prices are causing production to increase, not
because of the oil market, but because of the debt market, resulting
in a deflationary spiral. Businesses desperately increase production
and sales in the hope of making up for lost earnings, in order to meet
their debt margin calls, but the increased supply simply causes prices
to fall even faster, resulting in more deflation.

This is a dangerous situation because, as the price of oil continues
to fall, one or more of these funds may go bankrupt, and that may
cause a chain reaction of multiple bankruptcies. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Investment Watch/Wolf Richter


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mexico, Mexican Revolution,
Iguala, Ayotzinapa, Guerrero,
José Luis Abarca, María de los Ángeles,
Indonesia, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan,
Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
US Energy Information Administration, EIA

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 14-Dec-14 World View -- The GCC honeymoon: Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gulf Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement
• The newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
• The GCC honeymoon: Pragmatic attitude towards Israel and Iran

****
**** Gulf Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement
****


Gulf Cooperation Council meeting, December 9 (AFP)

The Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) has succeeded in getting through
its summit meeting last week, apparently in relative harmony. (See
"21-Nov-14 World View -- Gulf nations paper over their differences for GCC Summit in December"
)

It's being called a "historic turning point" for the GCC, with
potentially far-reaching consequences, because the GCC members have
stopped quibbling with each other, and have unified against their
common enemies.

As I've written several times in the last few months, the Gaza war has
brought about a major Mideast realignment
, splitting the GCC members apart. Egypt was the
catalyst for this split, at two points. First, when Egypt's army
ousted democratically elected Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood government, and replaced him with former army general
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who proceeded with a very bloody crackdown on
the Muslim Brotherhood, Muslim Brotherhood supporters Turkey and Qatar
turned vehemently against al-Sisi, while Saudi Arabia supported him.

Second, when the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas began this summer,
al-Sisi supported Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and turned
against Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. In addition,
Iran supported Hamas against Israel. This created a de facto
realignment of the Mideast, with Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia
plus the Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar
plus Turkey plus Iran.

****
**** The newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
****

The reasons being given for this newfound friendly Arab consanguinity
is that a unified GCC stance is necessary "to stop ... attempts led
by neighboring countries to intervene in Arab affairs." The
two countries referenced are:

• Turkey has been "meddling" in Egypt's affairs by encouraging
  the Muslim Brotherhood to oppose al-Sisi. Also, in a recent speech,
  Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a crowd of his supporters
  that no one can question Turkey's right to intervene in Egypt, Syria,
  Iraq, Palestine and Bosnia and Herzegovina -- countries that were once
  part of Turkey's Ottoman Empire.
• Iran, the historic enemy of Saudi Arabia, is encouraging Shia
  uprisings in Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

According to the final communiqué issued by the summit:

<blockqoute>"On Egypt, the Supreme Council reiterated its firm
position in support of the Republic of Egypt and President Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi’s roadmap, stressing the Council’s full support and
stand with the people and Government of Egypt in achieving
stability and prosperity. The Council underscored the role of
Egypt at Arab and regional levels for the benefit of both the Arab
and Islamic countries."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]The communiqué also indicates unanimous opposition to the al-Qaeda
linked terrorists in Syria and Iraq:

<QUOTE>"The Supreme Council welcomed the UN Security Council
resolution No 2170 in August in 2014, under Chapter VII, which
condemned the spread of serious human rights violations by
terrorist groups, including terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, in
particular the Daash and Al Nusra Front, and the sanctions imposed
on individuals associated with these groups."<END QUOTE>

"Daash" is the contemptuous Arabic name for the the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

So everything's agreeable. Is there any trouble in paradise? The
problem is that the communiqué doesn't mention Israel, Hamas, or the
Palestinian Authority. The only mention of Gaza is the following:

<QUOTE>"The Supreme Council praised the results of the Gaza
reconstruction conference, which was held in Cairo in October
2014."<END QUOTE>

Well that's nice, but are all the GCC nations really going to turn
against Hamas, which would make all the member nations de facto
allies of Israel and the Palestinian Authority? How long is
this pleasantness going to last?

Well, at the very least, we can understand the old Arab saying, "The
enemy of my enemy is my friend." Eurasia Review/Arab News and Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Saudi-US Relations Information Service

****
**** The GCC honeymoon: Pragmatic attitude towards Israel and Iran
****

An explanation of the GCC compromise with respect to Iran and Israel
was given in a television interview by a Saudi writer, Abdullah
Hamidaddin. Does Israel pose a threat to Saudi Arabia? His answer
was characterized by extreme pragmatism:

<QUOTE>"No. Israel is a troublemaker in the region, but it
poses a threat to the Palestinians, not to the Saudis. This has
nothing to do with the fact that the Palestinians have
rights. Israel is an aggressor on many levels. It is an unjust
country. We condemn the violence that we witness day and day
out. I am not talking about Israel's injustice towards the
Palestinians ...

It is imperative to distinguish between the two. The pan-Arabists
and the Islamists believe that because Israel occupied an Arab or
Muslim country, it must be annihilated as a matter of principle.

I have a different perspective. There is no doubt that Israel
plundered [Arab] land, but today the region is divided into
countries, one of which is Saudi Arabia. Israel attacked the land
of others, not my own land. By no means am I justifying this
attack, but with all its evils, it does not pose a threat to the
Saudi state or the Saudi citizens."<END QUOTE>

The interview pointed out that according to the official and declared
Saudi position, the Palestinian cause is the cause of all the Arabs.

<QUOTE>"There are two reasons for this. First, there is a
real problem. Israel's crisis with the Palestinians has generated
a regional problem. This crisis has ramifications – although, by
the way, these ramifications are highly exaggerated.

The second reason is the need to align with the general [Arab]
position. King Abdullah's 2003 initiative involved complete
normalization, and it was signed by all the Arabs, including
Syria. People were convinced that relations with Israel could be
normalized, and that we could have coexistence with it, on
condition that the problem in the West Bank and Gaza was resolved.

It is in Israel's interest for the problem to remain
unresolved. Israel is not a peaceful country. It is a very
oppressive country towards its Palestinian neighbors, and it does
whatever it can do to prolong the problem, because it benefits
from it."<END QUOTE>

Hamidaddin concluded by saying that the Arabs have wasted resources
attacking Israel in the past:

<QUOTE>"No, but I want to focus on the issues that affect
me. If Israel does not pose a strategic national threat, we should
not treat it as if it does. ...

[Israel did not create the threats coming from Iraq and Iran.]
No, it was us. Since the 1960s, when we turned Israel into a
problem, we have wasted our resources. Since the 1950s, the Arabs
have spent billions on the conflict with Israel, and have
sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives. The outcome is that we
are in decline, whereas Israel is on the rise. If we had treated
the Palestinian cause differently right from the start, we would
have been today stronger and more capable than Israel, and the
Palestinians would have been better off."<END QUOTE>

So is the GCC crisis over? Another Saudi columnist, Salman Aldossary,
suggests that the honeymoon may not last, and that the worst may
be yet to come:

<QUOTE>"It is premature to think that the crisis has been
completely resolved. We should admit that only some of the roots
of the problem have been addressed. In addition, some details
remain vague. Perhaps the coming months will be sufficient to
demonstrate if the good intentions that have been expressed about
putting the GCC’s general interests above the narrow ones of its
member states are genuine. It should not be overlooked, however,
that this acute crisis produced fierce reactions that went beyond
those of previous inter-Gulf disputes. This was the case when some
sides, affiliated with some parties involved in the dispute,
lashed out at certain states or figures. These incidents will
definitely not be forgiven, no matter how hard those who were
responsible for them try to reach out to their brothers. There is
a big difference between disagreeing with someone and registering
one’s position through objective criticism on the one hand, and
throwing the worst insults at someone on the other. It is true
that the Gulf states have overcome their political differences and
are quite pragmatic, but they do not forget personal differences
and the insults that accompany them.

The GCC [has witnessed] a honeymoon period in the run-up to its
forthcoming annual summit. ... Who knows, the honeymoon may last
throughout the next year. ...

It would be dangerous if the crisis returned and the wound opened
once again, God forbid. In this case, the crisis would certainly
be more extreme, dangerous, and complex than before, and would
produce decisions whose impact no one will be able to comprehend.

May the honeymoon last forever! Nevertheless, wishes need to be
accompanied by deeds."<END QUOTE>

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new war between
Arabs and Israelis, refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs
that following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel. Memri and
Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Kuwait, Oman,
Israel, Iran, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Ottoman Empire, Yemen, Hamas, Gaza, Palestinian Authority,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daash

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It is possible that the GCC are seeing the beauty of what we used to have with Eisenhower's "Norther Tier" concept. Iran is now a de facto member of the SCO. Turkey is unreliable and as you noted starting to wax nostalgic about the Ottoman era. Uniting against Northern aggressors makes a lot of sense for the Arabs, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and for that matter, India and all the former SEATO countries. Ah, barbarians coming down from the north, history does not repeat but it rhymes. And now it seems to by rhyming with the first Millennium AD.

*** 16-Dec-14 World View -- Desperate Russia raises interest rates to 17%, as ruble and oil prices collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China: 300 Chinese citizens join ISIS in Iraq and Syria
• Desperate Russia raises interest rates to 17%, as ruble and oil prices collapse
• Russia builds a road connecting Dagestan to Georgia

****
**** China: 300 Chinese citizens join ISIS in Iraq and Syria
****


ISIS fighters (AFP)

As we've reported in the past, young men from Asia are flocking to
Syria and Iraq to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). ( "6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support"
) Young jihadists throughout
Asia, including China, Pakistan, India, Indonesia and Australia, have
been drawn by the youthful ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi to Syria
to join the jihad.

The horrific terrorist attack in Sydney on Sunday and Monday have
reminded Australian authorities that some 60 young men from Australia
have gone to Syria to join ISIS.

China rarely releases similar figures about Chinese citizens, but did
so on Monday, when state media reported that some 300 Chinese people
are fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria. According to the
report, these are Uighurs who have joined the East Turkestan Islamic
Movement (ETIM), and traveled through Turkey to Syria, where they join
the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Chinese media blame "ambiguous
policies" by Turkey's government that allow easy access to Turkey
through southeastern Turkey's Sanliurfa Province, and then to join
ISIS:

<QUOTE>"The fact that these extremists can easily enter
Turkey and later travel to Syria and Iraq to join IS is a direct
consequence of the Turkish government's ambiguous
policies."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's embassy in Beijing called the claims "ridiculous," saying
that they only issue passports to Turkish citizens. They blamed the
governments of China and other Asian countries:

<QUOTE>"The illegal issuance of passports and visas and
customs loopholes in some Southeast Asian countries have allowed
extremists to travel to Turkey and then go on to join the
jihadists. If there weren't so many illegal passports and visas
available, there would not be so many members of ETIM in Syria and
Iraq."<END QUOTE>

Reuters and Global Times (Beijing)

****
**** Desperate Russia raises interest rates to 17%, as ruble and oil prices collapse
****

A desperate Russian central bank raised interest rates to 17% from
10.5% early Tuesday morning to halt the collapse of the ruble
currency. On Monday, the ruble fell 10% in one day against the
dollar, for a total of 49% fall this year, resulting in rampant
inflation.

Prices of West Texas Intermediate oil took another plunge on Monday to
less than $56 per barrel. It was just a few months ago that it was
priced at over $100 per barrel.

Russia's economy appears to be spiraling out of control, in the same
way that Greece's economy did a couple of years ago. The reasons for
Russia's crisis are:

• 52% of Russia's economy depends on oil revenues.
  
• Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been overspending and going
  into debt for years, assuming that oil prices would remain high.
  
• Russia's invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea, and it's
  invasion and partial occupation of eastern Ukraine, have turned out to
  be very expensive, and are a continuing expense as they require a
  great deal of military and humanitarian aid.
  
• The western sanctions on Russia have made it almost impossible for
  Russian banks to manage their debts by borrowing money
  overseas.

Reuters and Nasdaq

****
**** Russia builds a road connecting Dagestan to Georgia
****

Russia is rushing at breakneck speed to complete a road connecting
Dagestan, its province in the North Caucasus, across the Caucasus
mountain ridge to Georgia. The road construction is raising alarm in
Georgia, as it will allow Russia to invade Georgia rapidly. Russia
invaded Georgia in 2008, and occupied two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. The road would also establish a land corridor with
Armenia, Russia’s ally in the South Caucasus, and cut off the Caspian
and the Central Asian region, which is rich in energy resources, from
international markets. The highway is expected to be completed by
March 2015. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Pakistan, India, Australia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Syria, Iraq,
East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM, Turkistan Islamic Party, TIP,
Turkey, Sanliurfa Province,
Russia, ruble, Vladimir Putin, Greece, Dagestan, Georgia

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 16-Dec-14 World View -- Desperate Russia raises interest rates to 17%, as ruble and oil prices collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China: 300 Chinese citizens join ISIS in Iraq and Syria
• Desperate Russia raises interest rates to 17%, as ruble and oil prices collapse
• Russia builds a road connecting Dagestan to Georgia

****
**** China: 300 Chinese citizens join ISIS in Iraq and Syria
****


ISIS fighters (AFP)

As we've reported in the past, young men from Asia are flocking to
Syria and Iraq to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). ( "6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support"
) Young jihadists throughout
Asia, including China, Pakistan, India, Indonesia and Australia, have
been drawn by the youthful ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi to Syria
to join the jihad.

The horrific terrorist attack in Sydney on Sunday and Monday have
reminded Australian authorities that some 60 young men from Australia
have gone to Syria to join ISIS.

China rarely releases similar figures about Chinese citizens, but did
so on Monday, when state media reported that some 300 Chinese people
are fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria. According to the
report, these are Uighurs who have joined the East Turkestan Islamic
Movement (ETIM), and traveled through Turkey to Syria, where they join
the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Chinese media blame "ambiguous
policies" by Turkey's government that allow easy access to Turkey
through southeastern Turkey's Sanliurfa Province, and then to join
ISIS:

<QUOTE>"The fact that these extremists can easily enter
Turkey and later travel to Syria and Iraq to join IS is a direct
consequence of the Turkish government's ambiguous
policies."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's embassy in Beijing called the claims "ridiculous," saying
that they only issue passports to Turkish citizens. They blamed the
governments of China and other Asian countries:

<QUOTE>"The illegal issuance of passports and visas and
customs loopholes in some Southeast Asian countries have allowed
extremists to travel to Turkey and then go on to join the
jihadists. If there weren't so many illegal passports and visas
available, there would not be so many members of ETIM in Syria and
Iraq."<END QUOTE>

Reuters and Global Times (Beijing)

****
**** Desperate Russia raises interest rates to 17%, as ruble and oil prices collapse
****

A desperate Russian central bank raised interest rates to 17% from
10.5% early Tuesday morning to halt the collapse of the ruble
currency. On Monday, the ruble fell 10% in one day against the
dollar, for a total of 49% fall this year, resulting in rampant
inflation.

Prices of West Texas Intermediate oil took another plunge on Monday to
less than $56 per barrel. It was just a few months ago that it was
priced at over $100 per barrel.

Russia's economy appears to be spiraling out of control, in the same
way that Greece's economy did a couple of years ago. The reasons for
Russia's crisis are:

• 52% of Russia's economy depends on oil revenues.
• Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been overspending and going
  into debt for years, assuming that oil prices would remain high.
• Russia's invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea, and it's
  invasion and partial occupation of eastern Ukraine, have turned out to
  be very expensive, and are a continuing expense as they require a
  great deal of military and humanitarian aid.
• The western sanctions on Russia have made it almost impossible for
  Russian banks to manage their debts by borrowing money
  overseas.

Reuters and Nasdaq

****
**** Russia builds a road connecting Dagestan to Georgia
****

Russia is rushing at breakneck speed to complete a road connecting
Dagestan, its province in the North Caucasus, across the Caucasus
mountain ridge to Georgia. The road construction is raising alarm in
Georgia, as it will allow Russia to invade Georgia rapidly. Russia
invaded Georgia in 2008, and occupied two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. The road would also establish a land corridor with
Armenia, Russia’s ally in the South Caucasus, and cut off the Caspian
and the Central Asian region, which is rich in energy resources, from
international markets. The highway is expected to be completed by
March 2015. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Pakistan, India, Australia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Syria, Iraq,
East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM, Turkistan Islamic Party, TIP,
Turkey, Sanliurfa Province,
Russia, ruble, Vladimir Putin, Greece, Dagestan, Georgia

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Well there are a few things that raising interest rates in a deflationary environment will do. One is, all bad debt gets immediately nuked, and those carrying it are destroyed financially in one fell swoop. There is actually potential method to that madness, similar to forcing a junky to go cold turkey, damn the pain. Now those folks will either become wards of the state or homeless (or dead). Sort of a brutal finality to that. Secondly, it will prevent bank runs, in fact, it will draw in lots of cash. I wish I could get good bank interest and truly put a proper foundation on my financial pyramid. That would be sweet. So, for those who already have wealth, even modest wealth, it would be a boon. With all of that said, in terms of the consumer economy, it takes an already strained situation and makes it much worse. Anyone in Russia making money on consumer spending is dead meat.

*** 17-Dec-14 World View -- Pakistan Taliban crosses a red line with mass slaughter of army children

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Germany's anti-Islam demonstrations become too large to ignore
• Pakistan Taliban crosses a red line with mass slaughter of army children
• Pakistan and Australia move from denial to shock
• Russia's crisis deepens as ruble falls another 11%

****
**** Germany's anti-Islam demonstrations become too large to ignore
****


PEGIDA demonstrators in Dresden on Monday (Reuters)

For each Monday in the past nine weeks, supporters of the explicitly
anti-Islam far right Pegida movement have been protesting in cities
like Dresden and Düsseldorf. (The phrase "far right" has different
meanings in Europe and America.) The demonstrations have been growing
in size from a few dozen to start to the 10,000 who demonstrated in
Dresden. Germany's government ignored them at first, but the rapid
growth of the demonstrations is forcing it to deal with them.
Germany's justice minister Heiko Maas said that the protests were "an
embarrassment for Germany" and that the country was experiencing a new
"level of escalation of agitation against immigrants and refugees."

Pegida is an acronym for "Patriotische Europaeer Gegen die
Islamisierung des Abendlandes," which translates to "Patriotic
Europeans Against the Islamification of the West." Much of the
discontent comes from the fact that Germany has accepted a
record number of refugees this year, especially from Syria,
and has also witnessed the rise of Salafist movements in German
cities with heavy populations of immigrants.

Many of the complaints are about the economy. One elderly man
shouted: "I'm a pensioner. I only get a small pension but I have to
pay for all these people (asylum seekers). No-one asked me!" However,
a woman said, "I am not right wing, I'm not a Nazi. I am just worried
for my country, for my granddaughter." Deutsche Welle and BBC and Getty and Pegida facebook page

****
**** Pakistan Taliban crosses a red line with mass slaughter of army children
****

Terrorists from Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, Pakistan Taliban) attacked an
army school in Peshawar in northwest Pakistan on Tuesday, killing 141
people, 132 of them schoolchildren, most of them children of soldiers.
The attack, which is being described as the worst in years, is being
described as revenge for the army's operations against the TTP
in Pakistan's tribal area.

During the last few years, the Taliban have splintered into three
branches -- the Afghanistan Taliban, targeting US and Nato forces, the
Pakistan Taliban, and the Punjabi Taliban, attacking Indian targets.
According to analyst reports I've heard, the army has good relations
the first and third of these, but has lost control of the Pakistani
Taliban.

Many Pakistani people believe that the Taliban are good people,
defending their religion, and some even believe that the terrorist
attacks are being perpetrated by Iran or the U.S. to discredit the
Taliban. Tuesday's attack is thought to be so horrific that it will
wash away these attitudes and change minds once and for all. Others
point to the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad in 2008
that took place just a couple of blocks
from the government buildings. That was also a horrific bombing, and
it was thought that this attack would change mind permanently, but
instead, old attitudes took hold as soon as the initial shock wore
off.

Prime minister Nawaz Sharif ran his election campaign with a promise
to end TTP attacks by negotiating with the TTP. As we've described
many times, these negotiations always were a farce, and were treated
with contempt by the TTP. Tuesday's attack should end those attempts
once and for all though, although it has been noted that when Sharif
condemned Tuesday's attack, he referred only to "terrorists," and not
to the Taliban.

Pakistan's major opposition politician is Imran Khan, the former
cricket superstar turned anti-American politician. He's been even
more supportive of the Taliban, calling for an end to American drone
strikes against the Taliban, and calling for the resignation of Nawaz
Sharif for allowing the drone strikes.

At the very least, this attack has infuriated the army, who are now
promising blood revenge against the perpetrators. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Pakistan and Australia move from denial to shock
****

One of the characteristics of a generational Crisis era is the
enormous state of denial about many things. Just one illustration of
this in the US was the real estate bubble of the mid 2000s decade.
Even though I wrote repeatedly about this bubble, starting in 2004,
mainstream economists were ridiculously clueless about this, and
didn't even begin to talk about the bubble until around 2009, when the
real estate crisis was in full flower.

Pakistan's population have clearly been in denial about the danger
of the Taliban, despite major terrorist attacks every few days.
Some of the attacks have targeted Sufi or Shia Muslims, but
most of them have been political, attacking the government or
the army by massacring civilians. Tuesday's senseless attack
on hundreds of schoolchildren in Peshawar has transformed the
denial to shock.

The terrorist attack in Sydney on Monday and Tuesday has had a similar
effect on the people of Australia. Australia is a peaceful, open,
generous, multi-cultured and inclusive country with strict gun control
laws, so Australia's sense of denial took the form of believing that a
terror attack would not occur there.

Now Australians are waking up to the fact that dozens of young
Australian men have gone to Syria to become jihadists.

The biggest political battle will probably be over gun control. After
a 1996 gun massacre, strict gun control laws were imposed, and over a
million guns were destroyed in two buybacks since then. Now it's
being revealed that the number of guns is back to pre-1996 levels,
thanks mainly to gun smuggling operations.

When a country's population moves from denial to shock during a
generational Crisis era, then results can be very dangerous, because
nationalist forces may be triggered that leads to further shocks, and
then to a war. India Times and Daily Telegraph (Sydney) and Sydney Morning Herald

****
**** Russia's crisis deepens as ruble falls another 11%
****

Russia's desperate move yesterday,

raising interest rates to 17%, seems to have backfired. The value of
the ruble plunged another 11% against the dollar on Tuesday. It's now
fallen 20% this week, and fallen more than 50% since the beginning of
the year.

It may be that the currency crisis is now being driven by sheer panic,
as Russia has several hundred billion dollars saved up in reserves.
According to one analyst I heard, Russia could get revenge against the
west by bailing out Russian government debts denominated in dollars,
but let the corporate debts denominated in dollars simply default.
Since most of the holders of Russian dollar-denominated debt are
European banks and American investors, Russia could make the currency
crisis the West's problem. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Heiko Maas, PEGIDA,
Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamification of the West,
Pakistan, Peshawar, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan, Australia,
Russia, ruble

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*** 18-Dec-14 World View -- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack
• Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

****
**** US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack
****


Screen shot from the Sony Pictures movie 'Annie', which hackers stole and made available on the internet

As I wrote two weeks ago, Sony Pictures suffered a serious hacker
attack that's so widespread and destructive that Sony Pictures may not
survive. ( "6-Dec-14 World View -- Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers"
)

US officials are now saying on background that US intelligence and the
FBI have pulled out all the stops to track down the hackers, and
they've pieced together the evidence that North Korea ordered the
attack, although the individual or group behind the attack were not in
North Korea. Analysts have been speculating what the U.S. can do in
retaliation.

However, I haven't yet heard mentioned by these analysts what is
possibly a more significant point. Sony Pictures may be an American
corporation, but it's a subsidiary of a Japanese corporation, Sony
Inc. It will not be missed by the people of Japan that North Korea
has launched a major attack on a Japanese company, and their
retaliation may be a lot more serious. ABC News and AP

****
**** Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others
****

On Wednesday, US president Barack Obama and Cuba's president Raul
Castro simultaneously announced the restoration of diplomatic
relations, for the first time since the Cuban Revolution of 1960 and
the Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961. Although politicians are crowing
about this and taking credit, it has nothing to do with politicians,
but with generational changes in Cuba itself.

This wasn't even the most important change in Cuba. The major change
occurred in 2010, when Cuba announced the end of its Communist
economy. (See "16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications"
) Wednesday's
restoration of relations was just the next step in a process that Cuba
is still undergoing.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 2010 announcement
was an "Awakening climax," which means that a generational conflict
has been settled. The announcement occurred 50 years after the end of
Cuba's last generational crisis war, the Cuban Revolution.

All countries follow a similar pattern following the end of a
generational crisis war:

• When the war ends, the country enters a 15-year Recovery Era.
  The traumatized survivors of the war vow to make sure that no such
  horrors should ever be inflicted on their children and grandchildren,
  so they impose harsh rules and develop austere institutions designed
  to prevent it from happening again.
  
• After 15 years, the kids who grew up after the war begin to make
  themselves heard, and this is an Awakening era (like America in the
  1960s-70s). They rebel against the harsh rules and institutions
  imposed by their parents, creating a "generation gap," a harsh
  political struggle between the crisis war survivors versus the kids
  who grew up after the crisis war.
  
• After 20 more years, the country enters an Unraveling Era (like
  America in the 1980s-90s). The harsh rules and austere institutions
  unravel.
  
• Sometime during the Awakening and Unraveling eras, usually 40-50
  years after the end of the last crisis war, there's an Awakening
  climax that settles the generational conflict in favor of either the
  older or younger generation. Usually the younger generation wins
  since, after all, the older generation dies off. But if the older
  generation wins, it means that a highly repressive regime is in
  charge, and that there'll be a civil war two or three decades later
  when the next generational crisis war begins.

For many countries (not Cuba), the last crisis war was World War II,
which ended in 1945. Here are some examples of Awakening climaxes
following WW II:

• Germany - 1991=1945+46 -- the reunification of Germany.
  
• Poland - 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government,
  following Lech Walesa's Solidarity movement.
  
• Hungary 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government.
  Note that the 1956 Hungarian revolution failed, as Hungary was in a
  generational Recovery era.
  
• South Africa - 1990=1945+45 -- the end of apartheid.
  
• South Korea - 1987=1945+42 -- Following the 1980 Kwangu Massacre,
  the young "Kwangju generation" defeated the older "April 19"
  generation, through a bloodless coup in 1987.

Here are some additional examples of Awakening climaxes that
illustrate different possibilities:

• United States - 1974=1945+29. America's Awakening climax, the
  resignation of Richard Nixon, came only 29 years after the end of WW
  II. Additional research is needed, but I believe that this early
  Awakening climax is possible because of America's exceptionally free
  political system. The theory is that the more repressive the regime,
  the later the Awakening climax.
  
• China - 1989=1949+40. China's Communist Revolution ended in 1949.
  The Awakening climax 40 years later was the Tiananmen Square massacre
  that occurred in 1989, which was a clear victory of the older
  generation over the younger generation.
  
• Weimar Germany - 1918=1871+47 -- Weimar Germany fell at the
  end of World War I, 47 years after the end of the previous crisis war,
  the German unification wars.
  
• Burma (Myanmar) - 2010=1958+52: Burma's ethnic civil war ended
  in 1958. In 2010, junta leaders freed Aung San Suu Kyi after being
  imprisoned for 21 years, signaling a general political
  opening.

Really, none of this should be surprising. Fidel Castro ruled for
decades by demanding that the Cuban people suffer because of the evil
United States. Now Fidel and his brother Raul are in their 80s, and
they're simply too old and tired to continue to drive the anti-US
fervor, especially because the younger Cubans couldn't care less about
the Revolution. And so, Raul agreed to renewing diplomatic relations
with the US.

In many ways, Iran is similar to Cuba. Iran's last generational
crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the
Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has
been trying to maintain revolutionary fervor by citing threats from
the evil United States, just like Cuba. If Iran follows the usual
pattern for an Awakening climax, then the hardline Iranian regime will
collapse 40-50 years later, or within 2008-2018, which would be within
the next four years. [Correction: Sorry, but apparently I can't add.
This computation is all wrong. 1988+40 = 2028, not 2008. So the time
range should be 2028-2038.]

Havana Times and Miami Herald/AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sony Pictures, North Korea, Japan,
Cuba, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Bay of Pigs, Iran

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 18-Dec-14 World View -- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack
• Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others

****
**** US officials say that North Korea is responsible for Sony hack
****


Screen shot from the Sony Pictures movie 'Annie', which hackers stole and made available on the internet

As I wrote two weeks ago, Sony Pictures suffered a serious hacker
attack that's so widespread and destructive that Sony Pictures may not
survive. ( "6-Dec-14 World View -- Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers"
)

US officials are now saying on background that US intelligence and the
FBI have pulled out all the stops to track down the hackers, and
they've pieced together the evidence that North Korea ordered the
attack, although the individual or group behind the attack were not in
North Korea. Analysts have been speculating what the U.S. can do in
retaliation.

However, I haven't yet heard mentioned by these analysts what is
possibly a more significant point. Sony Pictures may be an American
corporation, but it's a subsidiary of a Japanese corporation, Sony
Inc. It will not be missed by the people of Japan that North Korea
has launched a major attack on a Japanese company, and their
retaliation may be a lot more serious. ABC News and AP

****
**** Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others
****

On Wednesday, US president Barack Obama and Cuba's president Raul
Castro simultaneously announced the restoration of diplomatic
relations, for the first time since the Cuban Revolution of 1960 and
the Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961. Although politicians are crowing
about this and taking credit, it has nothing to do with politicians,
but with generational changes in Cuba itself.

This wasn't even the most important change in Cuba. The major change
occurred in 2010, when Cuba announced the end of its Communist
economy. (See "16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications"
) Wednesday's
restoration of relations was just the next step in a process that Cuba
is still undergoing.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 2010 announcement
was an "Awakening climax," which means that a generational conflict
has been settled. The announcement occurred 50 years after the end of
Cuba's last generational crisis war, the Cuban Revolution.

All countries follow a similar pattern following the end of a
generational crisis war:

• When the war ends, the country enters a 15-year Recovery Era.
  The traumatized survivors of the war vow to make sure that no such
  horrors should ever be inflicted on their children and grandchildren,
  so they impose harsh rules and develop austere institutions designed
  to prevent it from happening again.
• After 15 years, the kids who grew up after the war begin to make
  themselves heard, and this is an Awakening era (like America in the
  1960s-70s). They rebel against the harsh rules and institutions
  imposed by their parents, creating a "generation gap," a harsh
  political struggle between the crisis war survivors versus the kids
  who grew up after the crisis war.
• After 20 more years, the country enters an Unraveling Era (like
  America in the 1980s-90s). The harsh rules and austere institutions
  unravel.
• Sometime during the Awakening and Unraveling eras, usually 40-50
  years after the end of the last crisis war, there's an Awakening
  climax that settles the generational conflict in favor of either the
  older or younger generation. Usually the younger generation wins
  since, after all, the older generation dies off. But if the older
  generation wins, it means that a highly repressive regime is in
  charge, and that there'll be a civil war two or three decades later
  when the next generational crisis war begins.

For many countries (not Cuba), the last crisis war was World War II,
which ended in 1945. Here are some examples of Awakening climaxes
following WW II:

• Germany - 1991=1945+46 -- the reunification of Germany.
• Poland - 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government,
  following Lech Walesa's Solidarity movement.
• Hungary 1989=1945+44 -- the fall of the Communist government.
  Note that the 1956 Hungarian revolution failed, as Hungary was in a
  generational Recovery era.
• South Africa - 1990=1945+45 -- the end of apartheid.
• South Korea - 1987=1945+42 -- Following the 1980 Kwangu Massacre,
  the young "Kwangju generation" defeated the older "April 19"
  generation, through a bloodless coup in 1987.

Here are some additional examples of Awakening climaxes that
illustrate different possibilities:

• United States - 1974=1945+29. America's Awakening climax, the
  resignation of Richard Nixon, came only 29 years after the end of WW
  II. Additional research is needed, but I believe that this early
  Awakening climax is possible because of America's exceptionally free
  political system. The theory is that the more repressive the regime,
  the later the Awakening climax.
• China - 1989=1949+40. China's Communist Revolution ended in 1949.
  The Awakening climax 40 years later was the Tiananmen Square massacre
  that occurred in 1989, which was a clear victory of the older
  generation over the younger generation.
• Weimar Germany - 1918=1871+47 -- Weimar Germany fell at the
  end of World War I, 47 years after the end of the previous crisis war,
  the German reunification wars.
• Burma (Myanmar) - 2010=1958+52: Burma's ethnic civil war ended
  in 1958. In 2010, junta leaders freed Aung San Suu Kyi after being
  imprisoned for 21 years, signaling a general political
  opening.

Really, none of this should be surprising. Fidel Castro ruled for
decades by demanding that the Cuban people suffer because of the evil
United States. Now Fidel and his brother Raul are in their 80s, and
they're simply too old and tired to continue to drive the anti-US
fervor, especially because the younger Cubans couldn't care less about
the Revolution. And so, Raul agreed to renewing diplomatic relations
with the US.

In many ways, Iran is similar to Cuba. Iran's last generational
crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the
Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has
been trying to maintain revolutionary fervor by citing threats from
the evil United States, just like Cuba. If Iran follows the usual
pattern for an Awakening climax, then the hardline Iranian regime will
collapse 40-50 years later, or within 2008-2018, which would be within
the next four years. Havana Times and Miami Herald/AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sony Pictures, North Korea, Japan,
Cuba, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Bay of Pigs, Iran

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The real test of Cuba will be if they stop being part of the SCO Axis supporters (e.g. cut off warm relations with Russia and China) and stop supporting the Venezuelan despots.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

The real test of Cuba will be if they stop being part of the SCO Axis supporters (e.g. cut off warm relations with Russia and China) and stop supporting the Venezuelan despots.

We're opening relations, not resetting them. I doubt we will change our status to BFF, so we shouldn't expect them to do that either.

*** 19-Dec-14 World View -- Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats
• Stock market continues parabolic climb with high volatility

****
**** Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats
****


Weapons storeroom on a floating armory

The explosion of piracy off the coast of Somalia, which reached
a peak between 2008-10, has resulted in a new, unexpected terror
threat. The widespread privacy gave rise to a number
of "Private Maritime Security Companies" (PMSCs) that a shipper
can hire to provide protection for his ships from pirates.

To perform their service, PMSCs need access to large stores of weapons
-- arms, ammunition, body armor, night-vision goggles, and other
military equipment. Storing this equipment on land has several
problems -- national governments don't like having it there, and the
PMSCs constantly have to return to home port to get the equipment.

This has given rise to an explosion of PMSCs with floating armories.
These are fishing vessels, tugs, patrol boats and other weapons that
have been converted by private companies into floating weapons stores.
Sometimes the weapons are made available to third parties for a fee,
according to Mark Gray, a director of the British company MNG
Maritime:

<QUOTE>"It's not the Hilton. As well as storing their
weapons, we provide hotel services for security guards who are
between jobs. We have bunk beds in cabins, the kind of
accommodation they were used to during their military
careers. Plus two chefs, a gym on deck and the ever essential
WiFi."<END QUOTE>

It's believed that there are currently 31 floating armories
at the present time. Many are in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf,
but they might be in international waters anywhere.

There's nothing illegal about them, but they're unregulated, and the
vessels that were converted have special security features. Pirates
or terrorist groups could seize the weapons, hijack the weapons, or
blow them up. A recent statement by the government of India says that
it stood "exposed and seriously threatened due to the presence of
largely unregulated floating armories with large amounts of undeclared
weapons and ammunition." BBC and Oxford Research Group and Full Report (PDF)

****
**** Stock market continues parabolic climb with high volatility
****


Dow bounces back

As I've written several times recently, the extreme volatility of the
stock market is very dangerous, because it indicates that the stock
market is being used as a gambling parlor completely unrelated to the
company stock shares underlying the market. As we reported ten days
ago, the Bank of International Settlements has taken the same view.
( "8-Dec-14 World View -- Bank of International Settlements warns of 'fragile' and 'sensitive' markets"
)

The drunken euphoria that I heard from analysts today, after the
parabolic 421 point surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is a
sign of just how dangerous the situation. They don't seem to realize
that if the Dow can go up 428 points in one day, then it can just as
easily go down 428 points in one day. And with the S&P 500
price/earnings ratio at around the astronomically high 19, well above
the historical level of 14, it's only a matter of time before the
stock market bubble bursts.

And that's exactly the kind of situation that triggers a panic. These
swings are getting wider and wider, just as they did prior to the 1929
crash.

The stock market fell 90% following the 1929 panic, but that didn't
happen all in one day. It fell 13% on Black Monday, and then another
12% the next day, but then it gained back 17% on the next two days, so
by the end of the week, people were wondering whether it would recover
completely. But it kept relentlessly falling, and only bottomed out
in the summer of 1932, despite repeated interventions by the Fed, and
repeated claims by President Herbert Hoover that "Prosperity is just
around the corner."

It shouldn't be called the "Crash of 1929," since the stock stock
market didn't really crash in 1929. It should be called the "Panic of
1929" since, after all this time, the day that America remembers is
the day of the panic, October 28, 1929. That's how it will happen
again. These wild swings will keep increasing, until one day these
computerized trading computers ("algos," as they're now called) will
take over and produce some sort of "flash crash," and a lot of people
will lose a lot of money. That will be the panic that everyone
remembers. Then the stock market will partially recover, and people
will cross their fingers, but the worst will be yet to come. Detroit News / AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Somalia, piracy, floating armory,
Private Maritime Security Companies, PMSC,
MNG Maritime, Red Sea, Persian Gulf,
Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio

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*** 20-Dec-14 World View -- Philippines and Vietnam launch military and legal buildup to confront China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines and Vietnam launch military and legal buildup to confront China
• China's Achilles' Heel -- the law of the sea
• China: Vietnam and Philippine militaries are no match for China

****
**** Philippines and Vietnam launch military and legal buildup to confront China
****


Philippine troop and Chinese maritime police boat confrontation at Second Thomas Reef.

With China taking aggressive military actions to annex Philippine
and Vietnamese territories in the South China Sea, both of
these countries are building up the military capabilities,
though nothing that they plan would have more than a small
token resistance when facing the massive Chinese military -- until
the United States got involved.

The Philippines aims to buy two frigates, two helicopters, and three
gunboats for deployment in the South China Sea. South Korea, Spain,
France, Italy and Indonesia are bidding on the contracts to supply the
weapons.

India is planning to sell to Vietnam several warship -- four patrol
boats at first, with seven more later. The sale of these warships has
strategic implications for India as well as Vietnam, since India has
oil drilling blocks off the coast of Vietnam. New Delhi TV and Reuters

****
**** China's Achilles' Heel -- the law of the sea
****

China continues a massive military buildup in the South China Sea,
even going so far as to build an artificial island to use for its air
force. But on the legal front, China continues to hide behind
bluster.

Outside of China, there are few international law experts who believe
that China's South Sea China claims, or their notorious
"nine-dash-line" doctrine, have any basis in modern international law,
specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS). China has been nothing but evasive in response to
arbitration procedures in front of the UN Arbitral Panel in the Hague,
initiated by the Philippines in 2013 and later joined by Vietnam and
supported by the United States. China has refused to recognize any
form of arbitration, and last week missed an important deadline in
submitting a statement of defense to the panel. No one seriously
believes international law will affect China's vast military operation
in the South China Sea, but for the time being, the law of the sea is
an embarrassment to China. Straits Times (Singapore) and National Interest and VOA

****
**** China: Vietnam and Philippine militaries are no match for China
****

According to an analysis by China's military, the countries
of the South China Sea are no match militarily for China, but
among them, Vietnam is the strongest, followed by Malaysia
and the Philippines.

• Vietnam: In order to secure the islands that China is
  threatening, the Vietnamese military adopts two defensive approaches.
  First, it establishes a defensive system by combining field and
  permanent fortifications and building both combat and living
  facilities. Second, it forms a defensive system by building dotted
  defensive facilities such as water chalets and bunkers.
  
• Malaysia: Starting in August 1983, Malaysia dispatched its Marine
  Corps to occupy South China Sea reefs and islands belonging to
  Malaysia, and since then has developed some of them into a famous
  tourist resort. To adapt to the battle need in the South China Sea,
  Malaysia has energetically intensified its naval submarine
  construction and bought two Scorpène-class submarines and the retired
  French submarine Agosta in succession. However, Malaysia is very
  careful in striking a balance between the territorial disputes over
  islands and reefs in the South China Sea and the multilateral friendly
  relations.
  
• Philippines. The Philippines, with weak economic and military
  strengths, can barely sustain low-intensity battles. So it employs a
  different tactic: It's migrated hundreds of civilians and a few dozen
  soldiers to the islands and reefs that belong to the Philippines. On
  one of the islands, there are only four soldiers and a simple wooden
  barrack. Philippine warship visits the island once every month to
  send supplies and rotate soldiers, who use M-16 assault rifle and
  grenades. What the Philippines has in mind is to accelerate its
  military modernization on the one hand, and further merge into the
  military system established by the US in the Asia Pacific on the other
  hand, so as to leverage on American forces.
  
• Brunei: Since independence in 1984, Brunei has claimed sovereignty
  of Nantong Reef at the south end of the South China Sea, but has no
  military presence in the South China Sea.

China Military Online

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Philippines, Vietnam,
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS,
Malaysia, Brunei, India

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 19-Dec-14 World View -- Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats
• Stock market continues parabolic climb with high volatility

****
**** Floating weapons armories present new terrorist threats
****

Floating armories... hard core! The movie writes itself. John Wick meets Captain Philips. I'd go.

*** 21-Dec-14 World View -- After 'Pakistan's 9/11', war is declared on the Taliban

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan declares no more 'good' and 'bad' Taliban
• Pakistan ends moratorium on hanging terrorists
• For the first time, US, Afghanistan and Pakistan will cooperate against Taliban

****
**** Pakistan declares no more 'good' and 'bad' Taliban
****


Shoes lie in blood in aftermath of Peshawar school massacre (Reuters)

After Tuesday's horrific attack on a Peshawar army school, in
northwest Pakistan, killing over 130 schoolchildren, Pakistan is
essentially declaring war on the Taliban.

The Taliban are not viewed monolithically in Pakistan, as they are in
the West. Pakistan's army and the public generally approve of the
Afghan Taliban, which attack American and Nato-allied targets in
Afghanistan, including Afghanistan's government. And they also
generally approve of the Punjabi Taliban, which attack India-linked
targets, usually in Kashmir. That's why the first remarks by
Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif, following the massacre,
referred only to "terrorist" perpetrators, not to the Taliban.

By Wednesday, Pakistanis were beginning to refer to the attack as
"Pakistan's 9/11," and were calling for a full-scale attack on the
Taliban. According to Sharif:

<QUOTE>"We announce that there will be no differentiation
between 'good' and 'bad' Taliban, and resolve to continue the war
against terrorism till the last terrorist is eliminated.

We have decided that all parliamentary and political leaders will
form a national consensus to defeat terrorism. We have decided to
draft an action plan against terrorists and act upon it
immediately."<END QUOTE>

He added that "the entire region (of South Asia) should be cleaned of
terrorism," and indicated that the army will conduct a massive
counter-terrorism operation in the tribal area along the border with
Afghanistan.

****
**** Pakistan ends moratorium on hanging terrorists
****

He also announced an ended to the moratorium on the death sentence.
The moratorium had been adopted in 2012 in the hope of a negotiated
peace with the Taliban. Pakistan has one of the largest death row
populations in the world, with more than 8,000 prisoners awaiting
hanging.

Pakistan hanged two convicted militants Friday in the country's first
executions in years, while warplanes and ground forces pounded
insurgent hideouts in a northwest region bordering Afghanistan. So
far, 150-200 militants have been killed in the counter-terror
operation announced on Wednesday.

However, the United Nations human rights office issued a statement on
Friday asking Pakistan to refrain from hangings, saying that they
would not stop terrorism and might even feed a "cycle of revenge."

The Taliban have announced that the reason that they attacked army
schoolchildren was in revenge for previous army attacks on Taliban
hideouts, which their own wives and children. They promised more
attacks on schools, and they also promised revenge for the two
hangings.

According to Pakistan's foreign minister, "This has shaken the entire
Pakistani society to the core, and in many ways it’s a threshold in
our strategy for countering terrorism." India Times and Asian Age and The Nation (Pakistan)

****
**** For the first time, US, Afghanistan and Pakistan will cooperate against Taliban
****

For the first time, Pakistan has agreed to cooperate with Afghan, US
and coalition forces in Afghanistan in a joint operation against the
Taliban on both sides of the border.

One of the peculiarities of most of the last year or two has been that
the Pakistani Taliban has been headquartered in Afghanistan, while the
Afghan Taliban has been headquartered in Pakistan. This was
convenient for both terror groups, because each side could conduct
massacres and terror attacks and then flee across the border to the
other side, thus escaping the security forces pursuing them.

Part of the new agreement still forbids "hot pursuit" of fleeing
Taliban militants across the border in either direction, as that would
breach Pakistan's or Afghanistan's sovereignty. However, the
intention is that both the Pak and Afghan armies would cooperate in an
anti-Taliban operation, so in theory the Taliban would not be able to
escape by crossing the border. ("In theory, theory and practice are
the same. In practice, they are not." -- Albert Einstein.)

The agreement also provides additional open Pakistani approval of
American drone strikes targeting Taliban officials in the tribal area.
A drone strike on Saturday ago killed five militants in North
Waziristan.

However, in a sign that the era of cooperation may not last, former
prime minister Pervez Musharraf rose from political death long enough
to blame Afghanistan and India for ordering the attack on the Peshawar
school. Daily Times (Pakistan) and The National (UAE) and Dawn (Pakistan)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Peshawar, Taliban,
India, Afghanistan

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*** 22-Dec-14 World View -- Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations
• ISIS executes 100 foreign fighters for trying to flee Syria
• Reader comments say that Vietnam can defend against China

****
**** Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations
****


Sisyphus

The mythical Sisyphus was condemned to perform hard labor by pushing a
heavy rock to the top of a hill, watching it roll downhill, and push
it again, continuing to eternity. The participants in cursed the
Mideast "peace process" are all like Sisyphus, in that they keep doing
the same things over and over, and start all over again after each
failure. And as I've written many times starting in May, 2003, the "peace process" will fail with
mathematical certainty, and the Sisyphean negotiations will finally
end only with a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the
1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel.

In the latest chapter, Jordan, which is currently a member of the
United Nations Security Council, has submitted on behalf of the
Palestinian Authority a resolution formulated by France that
specifies:

• "Two independent, democratic and prosperous states, 'Israel'
  and a sovereign, contiguous and viable State of Palestine living side
  by side in peace and security within mutually and internationally
  recognized borders."
  
• A return to pre-1967 borders, modified by "mutually agreed,
  limited and equivalent land swaps."
  
• Jerusalem as "the shared capital of two States."
  
• A 12-month deadline for wrapping up negotiations on a final
  settlement.
  
• A deadline of the end of 2017 for full Israeli withdrawal from
  Palestinian territories.

Several countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab
Emirates, all support the resolution.

But Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is bitterly opposed to
the resolution, saying, "we will not accept attempts to dictate to us
unilateral moves on a limited timetable."

And the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) also
bitterly opposes it, saying that it presents a false view of the
conflict as one between equal partners with legitimate rights and
interests, it provides no punishment for Israel for failing to meet
its obligations and, most important, it negates the "Palestinian
refugees' inalienable right to return" to the homes of their ancestors
in Israel.

At first, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas demanded a
vote in the Security Council and, assuming it doesn't pass, a vote in
the General Assembly were passage is all but certain, but non-binding.

However, US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that if the
resolution passed prior to Israel's March 17 elections, it would
strengthen the hardliners in Israel's government and affect the
elections.

And so, a vote on the resolution has been postponed, this time until
after March 17. And thus ends the current round of labor. For the
next three months, the participants can watch the boulder roll down
the hill again, after which they move on to the next Sisyphean round
of their task.

Middle East North Africa Financial Network (MenaFn) and AFP and
Jerusalem Post and Palestine News Network

****
**** ISIS executes 100 foreign fighters for trying to flee Syria
****

Syria is turning into something of a roach motel for would-be
jihadists who had hoped to join the fight against Syria's
genocidal president Bashar al-Assad: They can check in, but
they're discovering that they can't check out.

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) has
reportedly created a military police force to penalize those who do
not report for duty. Hundreds of foreign fighters have been arrested
and held prisoner by ISIS, while several dozens have been executed.
They've become disenchanted with the grueling fight for various
reasons. Some who escaped complained that they were fighting against
other rebel groups in Syria rather than against the al-Assad regime.
One said, "We aren’t able to speak the truth, and we are forced to do
useless things." Another said, "[If] you turn against ISIS, they will
kill you." International Business Times

****
**** Reader comments say that Vietnam can defend against China
****

Whenever I express my belief that Vietnam's military is no match for
China's, I always get reader comments disagreeing, and my latest such
analysis did the same.
( "20-Dec-14 World View -- Philippines and Vietnam launch military and legal buildup to confront China" )

Many recalled how the Vietnamese defeated America:

<QUOTE>"I remember they said the same thing about Vietnam,
back in the sixties. The flags on the ships bringing supplies
into Haiphong Harbor will be different this time."<END QUOTE>

Another pointed to Vietnam's long history with China:

<QUOTE>"Vietnam is no match for China?

Well, tell that to the 5,000 year history of Vietnam, and Vietnam
is still Vietnam standing tall today. Certainly, China didn't
learn any lesson from the last deadly anti-China riot in
Vietnam. Did China shamefully pick up over 10,000 Chinese losers
in Vietnam back to mainland China?

Vietnam - a country like no other, has a great history of
resisting and defeating the world's great powers. Well, bring it
on because the Vietnamese are ready."<END QUOTE>

Indeed, the explosive Tay-Son rebellion of the late 1770s is the most
celebrated military event in Vietnamese history, when the Vietnamese
troops repelled a much larger Chinese army in a brilliant battle that
united the north and south for the first time.
(See "18-May-14 World View -- A generational history of Vietnam" )

Another reader, Emily Han, laid out an entire Vietnamese military
strategy:

<QUOTE>"Of course, if the Chinese compare numbers and incite
continued Han-based nationalism so to feel good of thumping these
2 regional challengers then, yes the Philippines and Vietnam would
be no match. However, given the world-wide attention and
background of South China Sea conflict, Chinese aggressions are
limited to at the most, "a justifiable return of foreign occupied
assets" and even that will be near impossible to pull off without
chain reactions:

* Australia, Japan and India will not watch and in fact are
awaiting for such act to populate South China Sea with their
warships, lands-based military counter-measures (India) and East
China Sea's naval maneuvers (Japan), starting with a Chinese
ship-lanes closure.

* Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore will step out of their faked
"neutral" interested parties as they can't cover under "salami
slicing" and "cabbage peeling". Minimally, they will shut down
Malacca Strait as part of the economic blockade.

* To avoid the triggering of US-Philippines treaty, Chinese will
target Vietnamese 29 positions with missiles launchers from
warships and follow up with amphibious assault vehicles and
without air forces. Strategically, Vietnam's asymmetric warfare
has sufficient sustainable counter-measures for several months:
every position is a self-defense line against individual landing
and 9 positions have a 50-kilometers radius of coordinated
defense. Within 1 hour of notification, squadrons of Su-30's and
Mig's will directly engage en-route Chinese ships while awaiting
arrivals of 3 Kilo submarines, 4 Gepard frigates and 24 Molniya
high-speed (40 mph), shallow water (500 tons), missiles carriers
(16 Kh-35) to conduct hit-and-hide tactics.

* While Chinese navy must build its offense with replenishment
waves, Vietnamese goal is simply 1:1 exchange of ships, delaying
landing, disrupting re-supplies and retreats (3 days to nearest
Hainan base vs.1/2 day or less to Vietnamese shore)

* When Vietnam destroys or damages more than 2 dozens of Chinese
warships (regardless of their own losses), the invasion will be
called off and the fight will end. China, however may select to
save-face by launching ballistic missiles against Vietnam's
mainland targets to cause civilian casualties and claim victories
- like they did in the failed 1979 cross-borders. Such move will
be ill-advised as it will then, invite global interventions beyond
South China Sea theater."<END QUOTE>

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sisyphus, Israel, Palestine,
United Nations, Security Council, Jordan,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Mahmoud Abbas, John Kerry,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, China, South China Sea

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Due to its economic and military power, China is becoming the new hegemon.

*** 23-Dec-14 World View -- Furor in India over Muslim/Christian conversions to Hindu

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US suspected in massive North Korea internet outage
• UN Security Council discusses North Korean human rights crimes
• Furor in India over Muslim/Christian conversions to Hindu

****
**** US suspected in massive North Korea internet outage
****


Kim Il Sung 101st anniversary in Pyongyang, North Korea

North Korea for several hours on Monday suffered massive internet
outages affecting the whole country, or at least the few people that
the North Korean government permit to access the internet. According
to Dyn Research, which monitors North Korea:

<QUOTE>"For the past 24 hours North Korea's connectivity to
the outside world has been progressively getting degraded to the
point now that they are totally offline.

There's either a benign explanation - their routers are perhaps
having a software glitch; that’s possible. It also seems possible
that somebody can be directing some sort of an attack against them
and they're having trouble staying online."<END QUOTE>

Last week, President Barack Obama named North Korea as the perpetrator
on the massive attack on Sony Pictures, and promised a "proportional
response" at the place and time of our choosing. Many people suspect
that this is a US counterattack, although there's no evidence of that,
and it's being flatly denied by the administration.

Whether the US is actually responsible or not, if the North Koreans
assume that the US is really responsible, then they may plan their own
retaliation, making the situation extremely dangerous. Reuters

****
**** UN Security Council discusses North Korean human rights crimes
****

North Korea issued its usual litany of threats of war and world
disaster on Monday, after 11 of the 15 members of the UN Security
Council voted to put the issue of North Korean human rights on the
Security Council's agenda. The discussion will be based on a report
issued by the UN Human Rights Council earlier this year in February.
The report documents North Korean crimes against humanity, including
torture, abductions, forced prostitution, starvation, and imprisonment
for believing in Christianity.

North Korea said that the US was using the human rights issue to
overthrow the government. It also calls the dozens of defectors who
fled the North and aided the commission of inquiry "human scum."

Among the Security Council nations voting in favor of the resolution
were Australia, Great Britain, Jordan, Lithuania, the United States,
France and South Korea. Both Russia and China voted against it,
calling the resolution "counterproductive." The Security Council will
be asked to vote to send North Korea to the International Criminal
Court (ICC), but that resolution can be vetoed by any of the five
permanent members, and Russia and China will almost certainly do so.
There's honor among thieves. AP and Bloomberg and UN Human Rights Council

****
**** Furor in India over Muslim/Christian conversions to Hindu
****

Outrage is growing in India among minority groups, including Muslims
and Christians, because of allegedly forced massed conversions to the
Hindu religion. Indeed, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) organization
claims to have brought 500 people from 100 Christian families "back
into the Hindu fold" in large ceremonies. At a ceremony on Saturday,
all participants were given a pendant with an image of Lord Ram, along
with a Rudraksh [Hindu prayer beads] necklace.

According to one VHP official:

<QUOTE>"A yagna [Ritual of Sacred Fire] was performed and
participants were given pendants with an image of Lord Ram. They
discarded the pendants of another faith. We did not lure any
participant."<END QUOTE>

According to another VHP official:

<QUOTE>"Several Hindus had left the religion on account of
the inhumane treatment they got. They were taken to Christianity
under the influence of foreign money and other temptations. Within
Christianity, they have realized they were facing neglect. Hence,
many are willing to return to Hinduism. Sometimes, it would become
a trend."<END QUOTE>

Hindu nationalism (Hindutva) has become an extremely contentious issue
in India since the election of self-described Hindu nationalist
Narendra Modi as prime minister in May.
( "24-Aug-14 World View -- Narendra Modi and rise of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) in India" )

Hindutva activists supporting Modi refer to India as "Hindustan":

<QUOTE>"Hindutva is the identity of our nation.

Hindustan is a country of Hindus.

The entire world recognizes Indians as Hindus, therefore India is
a Hindu state. The cultural identity of all Indians is Hindutva
and the present inhabitants of the country are descendants of this
great culture."<END QUOTE>

However, Modi and his political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), have disavowed the forced conversions. Times of India and Indian Express and Times of India


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Security Council, China, russia,
International Criminal Court, ICC,
India, Hindutva, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Hindustan,
Narendra Modi, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, VHP

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*** 24-Dec-14 World View -- Ukraine abandons unaligned status, with intention to join Nato

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine abandons unaligned status, with intention to join Nato
• France is on high alert after a string of 'isolated' attacks

****
**** Ukraine abandons unaligned status, with intention to join Nato
****


A protester in front of the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev on Tuesday (AFP)

Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to drop the
country's non-aligned status as the first step towards Nato
membership. According to Ukrainian lawmaker Yuri Bereza:

<QUOTE>"If Ukraine had moved to join NATO right after the
breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia would have never dared to
deploy its troops in Crimea, annex the peninsula and then incite,
supply troops and hardware for an armed mutiny in Donbass.

Now it is up to us to conduct necessary military and political
reforms to join the [North Atlantic] alliance. That will be our
iron-clad guarantee against a new Russian
aggression."<END QUOTE>

This point of view is consistent with many Nato officials. According
to an essay last June by present and former Nato officials:

<QUOTE>"Security on the continent has changed dramatically
since NATO agreed in 2008 to admit Albania and Croatia, which
joined the following year, the last round of enlargement. Russia
subsequently used force against Georgia and then Ukraine, changing
borders. Well before the annexation of Crimea and destabilization
of eastern Ukraine, Putin had come to regard NATO as an
adversary. He has also declared Russia’s intention to use force
against perceived oppression of Russian speakers, wherever they
are. ...

Enlargement contributes to security because it leads to more
predictable relations with Russia. Membership has a calming effect
on Moscow’s ties with nations as NATO entry greatly increases the
costs to Moscow of interfering. Imagine if Estonia or Latvia – two
neighbors of Russia with large Russian minorities – were not
members of NATO. They could be under as much pressure now as
Ukraine. But Moscow has reasons to tread carefully because it
knows that an intervention in the Baltics would trigger a
collective NATO response."<END QUOTE>

A Ukraine membership in Nato would create substantial obligations on
all sides. Nato would be obligated to come to Ukraine's aid in case
of a further Russian invasion, and Ukraine would be obligated to the
aid of other Nato members facing military threats. BBC and LA Times and CNN (June 2014)

****
**** France is on high alert after a string of 'isolated' attacks
****

France's government announced on Tuesday that it would deploy up to
300 extra troops to patrol public areas over the Christmas period.
The alarm has been triggered by three bizarre "lone wolf" attacks in
three days, combined with charges issued by the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) to jihadists in France to conduct
more lone wolf attacks.

On Saturday, a Burundian national who had converted to Islam walked
into a police station in Joué-les-Tours, shouted "Allahu Akbar," and
stabbed police officers with a knife. On Sunday, a man with a history
of mental illness also cried "Allahu Akbar" and used his car to run
down pedestrians in several locations in Dijon. then on Monday, a man
ploughed his van through a crowded Christmas market in Nantes, before
repeatedly stabbing himself with a knife.

The three incidents are unrelated, as far as is known, except that the
third one may be a copycat killing. It's feared that there will be
further copycat killings. (However, it's not clear to me how a few
more policemen are going to stop a crazy driver from driving his car
into a crowd.)

In September, ISIS urged Muslims around the world to kill "in any
manner" those from countries involved in a coalition fighting against
ISIS, singling out the French. Among instructions for killing
civilians or military personnel was to run them over with a car or
truck. France24 and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Yuri Bereza, Nato,
Albania, Croatia, Crimea, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia,
France, Burundi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL

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With Ukraine now looking West, and, in a mini-alliance with Lithuania and Poland (talk about deja vu from 500 years ago), this definitely qualifies as a major shift in orientation for not only Ukraine but the entire central European sphere.

*** 25-Dec-14 World View -- Christmas pageantry brings a little cheer to Bethlehem

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Christmas pageantry brings a little cheer to Bethlehem
• In China, Christmas is for partying and e-commerce
• Christmas in Pakistan is subdued because of the Peshawar massacre
• In Iraq, it's Christmas in refugee camps in Kurdistan

****
**** Merry Christmas to all my readers!
****

****
**** Christmas pageantry brings a little cheer to Bethlehem
****


Christian pilgrims pray inside the Grotto of the Church of the Nativity, thought to be the birthplace of Jesus Christ, in Bethlehem on Wednesday. (AP)

Thousands of Christian pilgrims from around the world crowded into the
little town of Bethlehem in the West Bank of the Palestinian
territories. Manger Square was decked out in white and yellow lights
and a carnival atmosphere, at a time when there are a multitude of
things to be sad about: the persecution of Christians, the July-August
Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, and the war in Syria, which pits
one genocidal Barbarian regime, led by president Bashar al-Assad,
against another genocidal Barbarian regime, the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), led by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi.

At midnight mass, the Latin Patriarch Fouad Twal said that, "this Holy
Land has become a land of conflict." Bethlehem and Jerusalem lie at
the intersection of the world's four major monotheistic religions --
Judaism, Western Christianity, Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and
Islam. Twal called for Jews, Muslims and Christians in the Holy Land
to "live together as equals with mutual respect." AFP and AP

****
**** In China, Christmas is for partying and e-commerce
****

There's almost no sign of Jesus in China, but there are plenty of
pictures of Father Christmas, especially in large cities. While
Chinese festivities are solemn, serious and spiritual, Christmas is an
excuse to party. Young people especially go out to movie theatres,
bars or clubs. According to one citizen, "Christmas is just an excuse
to go shopping, as there are many big sales at a lot of places. The
theme is to have fun."

But it's also big business. The Christmas season allows China's
e-commerce giant Alibaba to play "Santa Claus for the whole world."
On Black Friday alone, the company set a one-day sales record of $2.65
million, a growth of 65.6% from last Black Friday. The Atlantic and Xinhua

****
**** Christmas in Pakistan is subdued because of the Peshawar massacre
****

Christmas is embraced even by Muslims in certain parts of Pakistan's
society, especially among the wealthy and education. Large festive
Christmas markets spring up in the large cities, including Karachi and
Islamabad. Even Muslim children write letters to Santa telling them
what presents to bring.

However, Christmas this year has been toned down across the country
because of last week's horrific attack on a Peshawar army school,
in northwest Pakistan, killing
over 130 schoolchildren. Instead, Christmas this year is a time to
wonder why Pakistanis have let this happen to themselves. "It is us
who have failed, not our children," says one mother. "We have to
teach our children to say ‘no’ to wrong. Do not hate anybody, love
your country. We are all Pakistanis." Dawn (Pakistan) and NBC News

****
**** In Iraq, it's Christmas in refugee camps in Kurdistan
****

After a year of the self-declared Caliphate of the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), and the systematic purging of
Christians in Iraq and Syria, most Iraqi Christmas celebrations are
being held in Baghdad or in refugee camps in Kurdistan in the north of
Iraq.

ISIS has conducted operations of ethnic and religious cleansing of
hundreds of thousands of Christians. "Talk of Christmas and Christian
occasions is forbidden under ISIS," according to a researcher. "The
group has destroyed, torched and looted all churches, and barred any
display of Christian faith. They also forced the hijab and Islamic way
of dress on Christian women, and killed several Christian men for
refusing to obey their orders." Al Arabiya (Saudi Arabia) and Huffington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bethlehem, West Bank, Israel, Gaza,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Fouad Twal, Jerusalem, China, Alibaba, Pakistan, Peshawar,
Iraq, Kurdistan

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*** 26-Dec-14 World View -- 'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians
• Jordan may exchange prisoners with ISIS

****
**** 'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians
****


Children in Assam relief center on Thursday (AP)

Indians have expressed shock over the brutality of the barbaric
massacre that took place on Tuesday in Assam province, in India's far
northeast. A group of 80 members of the ethnic Bodo tribe massacred
76 men, women and children and caused hundreds in Adivasis villages to
flee as their homes were being burned and destroyed. Both groups are
a mix of Hindus and Christians, with some Muslims.


India's Assam province has over 20 ethnic groups, many minorities, few majorities and over 50 languages

The attackers were from a separatist group, the National Democratic
Front of Boroland (NDFB), formed in 1994 to demand their own
autonomous homeland, Boroland. In particular, the attackers were from
a branch of the NDFB known as NDFB-S, after its leader I K Sonbijit.
(Note: Boroland is sometimes called Bodoland, apparently because the
actual consonant in the original language is somewhere between an 'r'
and a 'd'.) The Sonbijit faction was formed in 2012 to fight
Bangladeshi Muslims. Hundreds were killed, and thousands are still
living in relief camps.

There have already been a few revenge attacks by Adivasis on Bodos,
and the fear is that the situation may spiral into a full-scale ethnic
war. The Bodo terrorists have apparently fled to Bhutan and Burma
(Myanmar), and India is requesting cooperation from those governments
to arrest the perpetrators.

We've seen this kind of ethnic massacre recently in Burma, where
Buddhists have been massacring Muslims, in Syria, where Muslims have
been massacring each other, and in Central African Republic, where
Christians and Muslims have been massacring each other.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, sex and genocidal
massacres are both part of the human DNA, and the human race would not
have survived without both of them. Times of India and AP and DNA India

****
**** Jordan may exchange prisoners with ISIS
****

American military officials are saying that the Jordanian F-16
warplane that crashed over territory in Syria held by the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) was not shot down.
However, the actual cause of the crash, if known, has not been
announced. ISIS is known to possess shoulder-launched land to air
missiles, and they have had some success shooting down Iraqi
helicopters with them. But an F-16 flies too high for these
shoulder-launched missiles. It's not known whether ISIS has captured
some advanced missiles that Russia supplied to the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad, or whether the F-16 crash was caused by
mechanical failure. At any rate, this was the first capture of a
pilot participating in the air strikes against ISIS by the
American-led coalition.

There are some unconfirmed reports that Jordan is negotiating for a
prisoner swap to get the Jordanian pilot returned. The old al-Qaeda
in Iraq, which was the predecessor to ISIS, was founded in 2004 by Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian terrorist. Al-Zarqawi was killed in
2006 by an American drone strike, but some of his terrorist underlings
were captured and put into Jordanian jails. Several of these
underlings may be exchanged for the captured Jordanian pilot.
CNN and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Assam, Bodo, Adivasis,
National Democratic Front of Boroland,
NDFB-S, I K Sonbijit, Bhutan, Burma, Myanmar,
Syria, Central African Republic, Jordan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al-Qaeda in Iraq

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*** 27-Dec-14 World View -- China's missile tests may signal end of nuclear no-first-use policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China debates banning Christmas celebrations
• China's missile tests may signal end of nuclear no-first-use policy

****
**** China debates banning Christmas celebrations
****


Owners of Harley-Davidson motorcycles wearing Santa Claus costumes ride along a street to give presents to elders at a nursing home during a promotional event celebrating Christmas in Guangzhou, Guangdong province on Dec. 24, 2014 (Reuters)

Citizens, schools and even whole towns in China are attempting to curb
Christmas celebrations amid a backlash against what is seen as the
increasing influence of Western culture.

At one university where Christmas celebrations were banned, students
on Christmas eve instead had to attend screenings of what were
described as propaganda films about Confucius. Banners were draped
outside the university with slogans that read: "Strive to be
outstanding sons and daughters of China, oppose kitsch Western
holidays," and "Resist the expansion of Western culture."

Schools in Wenzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province, have been
forbidden from holding any Christmas-related events this year. The
ban on Christmas events covered all high schools, middle schools,
primary schools and kindergartens. Wenzhou has been for years a hub
of Christian missionary activities. The city is home for roughly a
million Christians, according to previous reports.

The ban on Christmas events came on the heels of a series of conflicts
between Zhejiang Christians and authorities this year, as the local
government tried to demolish churches and crosses that violated
construction standards. A church in Yongjia county, Wenzhou was
nearly torn down earlier this year. The authority said the building
was not built lawfully and was in violation of construction
regulations. The church was eventually saved after a series of
negotiations in April.

However, an editorial by Xinhua, China's state-run news mouthpiece,
says that there's no need to abolish Christmas:

<QUOTE>"The debates over Christmas, however, reveal certain
anxieties behind China's cultural ambitions. Some critics
associate Christmas with a public obsession for anything Western,
while others lament the "shipwreck" of Chinese culture.

For Chinese Christmas fans, the logic is simple: Like Valentine's
Day, Christmas is just a merry time to shop, party and exchange
gifts. Non-Christian Chinese associate Christmas more with the
"Old Man of Christmas", Santa Claus, than any Christian theology.

One reason for the growing popularity of Western festivals here,
particularly among the young, is that they offer an excuse to be
with friends and lovers, while traditional festivals are more
family-centered, celebrated with family get-togethers and feasts.

There is no need to pit Western festivals against Chinese: Chinese
Christmas revelers will still number among the hundreds of
millions who travel home for the Lunar New Year family
reunion."<END QUOTE>

One reason that the Chinese Communist Party does not want to end
Christmas celebrations is because Christmas is big business for China,
especially through the Alibaba e-commerce web site. For example,
China manufactures 60 percent of the world's Christmas decorations.
Global Times (Beijing) and International Business Times and Xinhua (Beijing)

****
**** China's missile tests may signal end of nuclear no-first-use policy
****

For decades, China's military has claimed a defensive "no first
strike" policy for nuclear weapons, meaning that they would not use
nuclear weapons until after surviving a nuclear strike by an enemy,
particularly the United States. However, developments associated with
the recent tests of the nuclear-capable WU-14 hypersonic missile
suggest that China is now focusing on offensive preemptive nuclear
strikes, rather than purely defensive responses.

The WU-14 is a major advance in China's military capability. A
conventional intercontinental ballistic missile is shot in an arc
higher than the atmosphere, and allowed to fall to the target.
American missile defenses are thought to be capable of detecting and
intercepting attacks of this kind.

The hypersonic missiles under test work differently. They're still
carried up by ballistic missiles, but they're released while still in
the atmosphere, and they're allowed to glide almost horizontally to
their targets at almost 8,000 miles per hour. Because they travel so
fast, they're thought to be able to defeat America's current missile
defenses. The systems provide enhanced precision, speed, range,
maneuverability and multiple-targeting.

In actual practice, the Chinese would launch simultaneous missile
attacks, combining traditional ballistic missile attacks with very
high speed hypersonic missiles coming in at low altitudes. "It makes
the defense problem orders of magnitude worse for the defender,"
according to one analyst.

The hypersonic missile is capable of delivering either conventional or
nuclear weapons. It's thought that China has between 500-1000 nuclear
weapons, stored in a vast network of tunnels. The tunnel network is
often called China's "underground great wall." There are some 3,000
miles of tunnels, hundreds of meters underground, deep in mountain
areas, difficult to detect from space spy satellites. Details of the
tunnels have not been publicized for obvious security reasons, but it
is known that they are scattered across China and are not all
connected to one another. They are designed to withstand nuclear and
conventional attacks. Rail lines and trucks move missiles, related
equipment, and personnel within the network. All the activities
necessary for launch preparation can be done in the tunnels.

Although China has not announced any change to its no-first-use
nuclear policy, there are some signs. China's official defense
documents now make no mention of no-first use. China's president Xi
Jinping made no mention of no-first-use during a visit to China's
Second Artillery Corps to congratulate them on the development of the
WU-14. The Second Artillery Corps has developed the WU-14 with both
conventional and nuclear capabilities, and the same people worked on
both sides. In open discussions of the systems, nuclear no-first-use
is rarely if ever mentioned. Instead, the discussions have been on
the pre-emptive nature of these systems.

This is not proof that China has abandoned its no-first-use policy.
But China has been rapidly building its military for years with a
variety of weapons and missile systems that have no other purpose than
to preemptively strike American aircraft carriers, American military
bases, and American cities, and Generational Dynamics predicts that
China is preparing for pre-emptive war with the United States. It
stands to reason that the developers of these massive military
capabilities would not hesitate to use a nuclear weapon in a
pre-emptive strike if they believed that it gave them a significant
military advantage. Washington Free Beacon and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (Jan, 2012)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Christmas, Confucious, Wenzhou,
WU-14, underground great wall, Xi Jinping, Second Artillery Corps

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*** 28-Dec-14 World View -- Darfur on verge of return to full-scale civil war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Darfur on verge of return to full-scale civil war
• Italian navy picks up record number of Mediterranean migrants over Christmas
• America and North Korea accuse each other of internet hacking

****
**** Darfur on verge of return to full-scale civil war
****


There are 2 million people in Darfur refugee camps

I've been following the genocide in Darfur, the western region of
Sudan, since it became worldwide news in 2004, and it's been an
interesting case study for Generational Dynamics. The genocide has
sometimes been called "Everybody's favorite African war," since George
Clooney and other movie stars, and politicians like Susan Rice, Nancy
Pelosi and Joe Biden have all made "Stop the genocide" and "Save
Darfur" and "Enough is enough" part of a very stylish and progressive
do-good campaign.

What I wrote over and over since 2004 is that Darfur was experiencing
a generational crisis war, and that the war was a force of nature that
could not be stopped until it reached a climax.

Low level violence began in the 1970s between two ethnic groups, one
of farmers (the "Africans") and the other of camel herders (the
"Arabs"). At that time, disputes over land and water were resolved by
the village elders, but by the 2000s, the elders had all disappeared,
and the younger generations were more interested in confrontation than
mediation. During the 1990s, Sudan's government in Khartoum delegated
the responsibility of policing the region to the Arab Janjaweed
militia, formed from certain groups of herders. This was an ideal
solution to Khartoum, since it meant that the "African" and "Arab"
Darfuris would have to solve problems themselves, and Khartoum would
stay out of it. During the early 2000s, a series of incidents
escalated the violence, until the conflict became a generational
crisis war in 2003. (A more detailed history can be found in my 2007
article, "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming"
) At that point, the
Janjaweed militias (herders) became extremely violent, with a program
of massacres, mass murders, rapes, genocide and scorched earth.

Starting in 2006, the United Nations mounted an expensive, high
profile peacekeeping operating, with 20,000 blue-helmeted soldiers on
the ground at its peak. The peacekeepers rounded up all the hundreds
of thousands of displaced people, and herded them into enormous
refugee camps, where they were still exposed to attacks by the
Janjaweeds. Since then, the budget for the UN peacekeeping force has
been dwindling, as have the number of peacekeeping soldiers, though it
still costs $1.4 billion per year.

Now Sudan's government in Khartoum, backed by China, is demanding that
the UN shrink the peacekeeping force even more, or even eliminate it
completely. This is despite the fact that the massacres and rapes by
the Janjaweeds are continuing, with hundreds of thousands of people
displaced in 2014 alone, and with more than 2 million people in
refugee camps. With the peacekeeping forces out of the way, as Sudan
and China demand, then the Janjaweeds will be free to complete their
mission of mass slaughter of millions of refugees.

In 2004, I wrote that the Darfur war is a generational crisis war that
is a force of nature and can't be stopped any more than a tsunami can
be stopped. George Clooney has gone home, and Susan Rice has gone on
to other causes. After ten years, the tsunami is finally reaching
shore. AP and International Business Times and NY Times

****
**** Italian navy picks up record number of Mediterranean migrants over Christmas
****

The number of migrants fleeing from Syria, Eritrea and northern Africa
continues to surge. Supposedly, the European Union was supposed
to be responsible for patrolling the Mediterranean shores
for migrants, but in practice that responsibility has continued
to fall to Italy's navy. Over the Christmas period, the navy
picked up a total of 2,300 people. About 165,000 people have
made the crossing in 2014, compared to 60,000 in 2013.

Most migrants leave from Libya, where they are charged several
thousand dollars by migrant smugglers to make the trip. The migrants
are crammed into poorly maintained vessels, sometimes no more than
inflatable dinghies. However, traffickers are increasingly switching
to a new tactic: They simply have to get the vessel out into the open
water in the Mediterranean Sea, and hope that the migrants will be
picked up by Italy's navy or by passing merchant ships which are
obliged, under the law of the sea, to respond to distress calls.
AFP and VOA

****
**** America and North Korea accuse each other of internet hacking
****


Billboard advertising 'The Interview' (BBC)

North Korea's National Defense Commission on Friday accused the US of
shutting down North Korea's internet access, describing President
Barack Obama as "reckless" and "a monkey." Another North Korean
internet shutdown was observed hours later. Obama has already several
days ago accused North Korea of being responsible for the hacking of
Sony Pictures. ( "6-Dec-14 World View -- Sony suffers catastrophic breach, possibly from North Korean hackers"
)

The situation now is that both America and North Korea have hardened
positions, each blaming the other for a fairly substantial cyber
attack. It remains to be see whether these mutual accusations will
settle down or escalate. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Darfur, Sudan, George Clooney, Susan Rice,
Syria, Eritrea, Libya, Italy,
North Korea, The Interview

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*** 29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?
• ISIS kills almost 2000 in Syria in six months

****
**** Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?
****


Christians forced out of the town of Mosul by ISIS take shelter in a church. (Aleteia)

There's a frequently heard complaint that while the mainstream media
frequently report on jihadist attacks, they seem to ignore the attacks
on Christians. This criticism was directed at me after this article:
"26-Dec-14 World View -- 'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians"
.
One person wrote (paraphrasing): "John, my point is that you left
Christians off your list entirely, while at the same time they are
being brutally massacred all around the world. You didn't get it then,
perhaps due to your biases. You're not getting it now." Another
person wrote, "Admit it. You don't like Christians and you downplay
violence against them."

Let me assure you, Dear Reader, that I wouldn't hesitate for a
nanosecond to report on a massacre of Christians by jihadists or
anyone else. So if that's true, you may ask, then why don't I write
about massacres of Christians more often?

Let's look at some numbers. How many Christians have actually been
massacred by jihadists? I went to the anti-Muslim "Religion of Peace"
web site where they have tables of jihadist attacks, including a table
of Christians killed by jihadists. Here are the numbers:

• Since 11-Sep-2001 (9/11) -- that's 13 years -- less than 9000
  Christians have been killed in jihadist attacks, according to the web
  site.
  
• Since 1-Jan-2014 -- that's this year alone -- about 30,000 people
  have been killed in jihadist attacks.

A new report sponsored by the BBC finds that more than 5,000 people
worldwide died in November alone -- just one month -- as a result of
jihadist violence. This would indicate that about 60,000 people have
died from jihadist attacks per year.

If you put all these figures together, you can see that the number of
Christians killed by jihadists is minuscule -- less than 2% ---
compared to the total number of people killed by jihadists. Quite
honestly, I would guess that in any given country in recent years,
more Christians have been killed by traffic accidents than by
terrorists. Overwhelmingly, the people being killed by jihadists are
other Muslims.

So that explains the lack of media coverage of Christians killed by
jihadists. If less than 2% of the victims are Christian, then you
would expect Christians to get not much more than 2% of the coverage.

Once again, Dear Reader, when there is a massacre of Christians (let's
hope that it won't happen), then I would not hesitate to report it.
But what's really going on is that jihadists are overwhelmingly
attacking other Muslims. There's a war going on, and it's not between
Christians and Muslims. It's between Muslims and Muslims, and it's
going to have a huge effect on all our futures. The Religion Of Peace and BBC

****
**** ISIS kills almost 2000 in Syria in six months
****

According to figures published by the Syrian Observatory For Human
Rights, there have been at least 1878 documented executions by the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) since it became
a self-declared "Caliphate" on June 28, 2014.

That figure includes 120 of its own ISIS members, who were executed
for trying to return back home.

The dead included 930 members of the Shaitat tribe, an important Sunni
Muslim tribe that's been opposing ISIS. This is an example of Sunni
Muslims massacring Sunni Muslims.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in Syria since
2011, when Syria's genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad began launching
heavy weapons and chemical-laden barrel bombs on innocent women and
children. Now they've been joined by ISIS in massacring thousands
more Sunni civilians.

And by the way, I should also mention Pakistan. Last week's horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school,
killing over 130 schoolchildren, shows that Pakistan is at
war with itself, with Sunni Muslim terrorists killing Sunni and Shia
Muslim civilians almost every day.

Once again, Dear Reader, we are not seeing a war of Muslims against
Christians, although some Christians are targeted. What we're seeing
is something of historic proportions: A massive and growing war of
Muslims against Muslims -- Sunni Muslims against Sunni Muslims, Sunni
Muslims against Shia Muslims, and Shia Muslims against Sunni Muslims.
The intensity of this war has been growing for several years, and at
some point will engulf at least the Mideast and South Asia. Syrian Observatory For Human Rights and AFP and Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Christians, Muslims, jihadists,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Syria, Shaitat Tribe, Bashar al-Assad,
Pakistan, Peshawar, Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?
• ISIS kills almost 2000 in Syria in six months

****
**** Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?
****


Christians forced out of the town of Mosul by ISIS take shelter in a church. (Aleteia)

There's a frequently heard complaint that while the mainstream media
frequently report on jihadist attacks, they seem to ignore the attacks
on Christians. This criticism was directed at me after this article:
"26-Dec-14 World View -- 'Barbaric' ethnic massacre in Assam province shocks Indians"
.
One person wrote (paraphrasing): "John, my point is that you left
Christians off your list entirely, while at the same time they are
being brutally massacred all around the world. You didn't get it then,
perhaps due to your biases. You're not getting it now." Another
person wrote, "Admit it. You don't like Christians and you downplay
violence against them."

Let me assure you, Dear Reader, that I wouldn't hesitate for a
nanosecond to report on a massacre of Christians by jihadists or
anyone else. So if that's true, you may ask, then why don't I write
about massacres of Christians more often?

Let's look at some numbers. How many Christians have actually been
massacred by jihadists? I went to the anti-Muslim "Religion of Peace"
web site where they have tables of jihadist attacks, including a table
of Christians killed by jihadists. Here are the numbers:

• Since 11-Sep-2001 (9/11) -- that's 13 years -- less than 9000
  Christians have been killed in jihadist attacks, according to the web
  site.
• Since 1-Jan-2014 -- that's this year alone -- about 30,000 people
  have been killed in jihadist attacks.

A new report sponsored by the BBC finds that more than 5,000 people
worldwide died in November alone -- just one month -- as a result of
jihadist violence. This would indicate that about 60,000 people have
died from jihadist attacks per year.

If you put all these figures together, you can see that the number of
Christians killed by jihadists is minuscule -- less than 2% ---
compared to the total number of people killed by jihadists. Quite
honestly, I would guess that in any given country in recent years,
more Christians have been killed by traffic accidents than by
terrorists. Overwhelmingly, the people being killed by jihadists are
other Muslims.

So that explains the lack of media coverage of Christians killed by
jihadists. If less than 2% of the victims are Christian, then you
would expect Christians to get not much more than 2% of the coverage.

Once again, Dear Reader, when there is a massacre of Christians (let's
hope that it won't happen), then I would not hesitate to report it.
But what's really going on is that jihadists are overwhelmingly
attacking other Muslims. There's a war going on, and it's not between
Christians and Muslims. It's between Muslims and Muslims, and it's
going to have a huge effect on all our futures. The Religion Of Peace and BBC

****
**** ISIS kills almost 2000 in Syria in six months
****

According to figures published by the Syrian Observatory For Human
Rights, there have been at least 1878 documented executions by the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) since it became
a self-declared "Caliphate" on June 28, 2014.

That figure includes 120 of its own ISIS members, who were executed
for trying to return back home.

The dead included 930 members of the Shaitat tribe, an important Sunni
Muslim tribe that's been opposing ISIS. This is an example of Sunni
Muslims massacring Sunni Muslims.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in Syria since
2011, when Syria's genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad began launching
heavy weapons and chemical-laden barrel bombs on innocent women and
children. Now they've been joined by ISIS in massacring thousands
more Sunni civilians.

And by the way, I should also mention Pakistan. Last week's horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school,
killing over 130 schoolchildren, shows that Pakistan is at
war with itself, with Sunni Muslim terrorists killing Sunni and Shia
Muslim civilians almost every day.

Once again, Dear Reader, we are not seeing a war of Muslims against
Christians, although some Christians are targeted. What we're seeing
is something of historic proportions: A massive and growing war of
Muslims against Muslims -- Sunni Muslims against Sunni Muslims, Sunni
Muslims against Shia Muslims, and Shia Muslims against Sunni Muslims.
The intensity of this war has been growing for several years, and at
some point will engulf at least the Mideast and South Asia. Syrian Observatory For Human Rights and AFP and Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Christians, Muslims, jihadists,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Syria, Shaitat Tribe, Bashar al-Assad,
Pakistan, Peshawar, Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims

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Perhaps this is Islam's "30 Years' War."