Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Perhaps this is Islam's "30 Years' War."

I don't know if you've read any of the old postings here, but in the past some of our member have broached the idea that Islam is due its 30 year war. Amongst other things Christianity was a lot more violent before it was bled dry by 30 years of religious wars.

*** 30-Dec-14 World View -- Cameroon's air force bombs Boko Haram positions, forcing retreat

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan may free the alleged Mumbai 2008 terror mastermind
• Cameroon's air force bombs Boko Haram positions, forcing retreat
• Cameroon bombings raise questions about Nigeria's army
• Greece's stocks plunge as government collapses

****
**** Pakistan may free the alleged Mumbai 2008 terror mastermind
****


Mumbai's Taj Mahal Palace during the 2008 terror attack

Two weeks after Pakistan suffered a horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school,
killing over
130 schoolchildren, Pakistan's court is about to set free the alleged
mastermind of the horrific 3-day terror attack on Mumbai in 2008,
when many hundreds were killed and
injured, the iconic Taj Mahal Palace hotel was burned and gutted, and
the crowd in the CST Railway Station was sprayed with bullets.

After some investigation, there was little doubt that the perpetrators
were Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a terror group that had originally been
constituted in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
agency (ISI) to fight Indian forces in disputed Kashmir regions.
India said it had evidence that government agencies of Pakistan were
involved in plotting the attack, and threatened to send security
forces into Pakistan to arrest LeT members. War was averted between
the two countries only after hard intervention by then US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice.

A conflict was averted when Pakistan promised to prosecute the
perpetrators, but although LeT members were arrested, there have never
been any prosecutions or trials. Now, a Pakistani court has granted
$10,000 bail to Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the
Mumbai attack, and he may be walking free soon, although he may
continue to be held on other charges. There is outrage in India at
this development, but there seems to be little concern in Pakistan
that a major attack by Pakistan's LeT on Indian targets will pass with
impunity.

Following the Peshawar attack, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif,
said: "We announce that there will be no differentiation between
'good' and 'bad' Taliban, and resolve to continue the war against
terrorism till the last terrorist is eliminated." Only a few days
later, that promise is now very much in doubt. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and India Times and AFP

****
**** Cameroon's air force bombs Boko Haram positions, forcing retreat
****

For the first time, Cameroon's air force conducted air strikes in
support of the army against Boko Haram positions in northern Cameroon,
forcing the terrorists to retreat. Though Cameroon has deployed
thousands of troops to the Far North, the region is difficult to
police because of the rugged terrain. Vast expanses of territory are
uninhabited and there are few physical barriers demarcating Cameroon's
border with Nigeria. Many on either side speak the same Hausa language
and it is often difficult to distinguish locals from foreigners.

The bombings follow an escalation of the fighting in Cameroon. In the
past, Nigerian Boko Haram fighters have focused on hit and run raids
on individual settlements. But now Boko Haram is seeking to expand
the territory its holding in Nigeria by taking territory in Cameroon.

According to Cameroon, about 1000 Boko Haram fighters over the weekend
seized parts of several villages, and briefly occupied a military
camp.

In addition, the militants kidnapped several girls between the ages 12
and 15 for forced marriages to the group's fighters. In the past
year, Boko Haram has stepped up kidnappings of young women in Nigeria
to sell them into sexual slavery or force them to marry its fighters.
Leadership (Nigeria) and Al-Jazeera and VOA

****
**** Cameroon bombings raise questions about Nigeria's army
****

A story that received worldwide attention in October was that it took
just 30 Boko Haram militants to capture the commercial city of Mubi,
in northeast Nigeria, without firing a shot.

An investigation has revealed that the city was defended by over 1,000
well-armed Nigerian troops, but that they dropped their arms and ran
instead of fighting. The debacle is being blamed on sabotage by
sympathetic northern troops and some of their commanders who refused
to fight the insurgents.

Just as some people in Pakistan's government are sympathetic to the
Taliban and support them, it appears that there are people in
Nigeria's government and army that are sympathetic to Boko Haram and
support them.

The actions by Cameroon to conduct bombing raids against Boko Haram
positions in Cameroon have highlighted the problem. Nigeria has a
much larger and more powerful air force, but they've refused to take
similar actions against Boko Haram positions in Nigeria. This Day Live (Nigeria)

****
**** Greece's stocks plunge as government collapses
****

After Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras received on Monday what
is in effect a vote of no confidence from the nation's parliament,
Samaras will call on Tuesday for snap elections on January 25.

Polls indicate that the likely winner will be the radical far left
Syriza party, led by Alexis Tspiras. Tspiras is demanding that Greece
renege on the commitments it made in order to qualify for a 240
billion euro bailout that has already been paid. This would push
Greece's government into bankruptcy, and push bond yields up well into
double or even triple digits, making it almost impossible for Greece
to borrow money. Tspiras has indicated that it would be fine with him
if Greece completely abandons the euro currency, and goes back to its
old drachma currency.

Greece's stock market fell 11.3%, before partially recovering and
closing down 3.9%. Kathimerini and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Kashmir,
Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI,
Condoleeza Rice, India, Mumbai, Taj Mahal Palace,
Taliban, Nawaz Sharif, Cameroon, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Greece, Antonis Samaras, Syriza, Alexis Tspiras

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*** 31-Dec-14 World View -- Hamas struggles to find a direction after the Gaza war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas struggles to find a direction after the Gaza war
• UN Security Council rejects Palestinian Authority resolution, without US veto

****
**** Hamas struggles to find a direction after the Gaza war
****


Gaza still in ruins after summer war, with reconstruction promises forgotten (Getty)

Hamas's popularity within Gaza surged to its highest levels during the
summer Gaza War, especially when Hamas promised that they would never
allow Gaza to return to the status quo ante prior to the war.
Militarily, the war was a disastrous defeat for Hamas, since Israel's
Iron Dome anti-missile system blocked almost every Hamas missile
entering Israel, while Hamas could put up almost no resistance to the
Israeli warplanes bombing Gaza. Hamas had to agree to a ceasefire
that was, effectively, a return to the status quo ante. Now
Palestinians look around and see a Gaza in ruins. Promises of
reconstruction have been almost forgotten. Promises to negotiate
opening the borders have been forgotten. Not surprisingly, Hamas's
popularity has been falling, and there is popular discontent with the
Hamas leadership.

Apparently this discontent has spread to the leadership of Qatar.
During the last two years, Qatar has increasingly split with Egypt,
and strongly supported the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, even
providing substantial aid to Hamas. But now, threats from
the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and
from Iran are bringing about a reconciliation between Qatar and
Egypt, and even the financial aid is threatened.

This is requiring Hamas's leader to face some difficult choices:

• According to some reports, Hamas is considering renewing its
  ties with Iran. This would be a match made in hell, since Iran is a
  Shia Muslim country, and Hamas is a Sunni Muslim terrorist group, so
  their core beliefs are fundamentally in conflict, even if they do
  share a common enmity of Israel. Hamas used to have its headquarters
  in Damascus, but had to leave when Syria's genocidal monster president
  started exterminating innocent Sunni women and children. The Hamas
  leadership moved its headquarters to Doha, Qatar, but now a move to
  Tehran is being considered, according to some reports.
  
• According to other reports, Hamas is considering negotiating
  directly with Israel. This is anathema to the Hamas leadership, and
  it's forbidden by the Hamas charter. But according to Mousa Abu
  Marzouk, the deputy political chief of Hamas, this idea is being
  discussed by Hamas leaders: "The reaction was, overall, quite
  good. There is a new generation of young leaders coming up, and they
  are the people we should look to carry out the reforms
  necessary."

The above two policy proposals are, of course, in conflict with each
other. But the fact that two such radical concepts are even being
discussed illustrates how directionless Hamas has become, and
difficult its choices are now. Al Monitor and Independent (London) and Debka

****
**** UN Security Council rejects Palestinian Authority resolution, without US veto
****

In what was apparently the outcome of a strategic blunder by the
Palestinian Authority (PA), the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday voted
against a resolution that would require Israel to withdraw from the
Palestinian territories to pre-1967 borders by 2017.

The motion was rejected because only 8 of the 15 members voted in
favor of it, with two votes against and five abstentions, including
the UK. Nine votes of support are required, and so it was not
necessary for the U.S. to exercise its veto, as it had said it would
do. But the PA had wanted to force a U.S. veto anyway for symbolic
reasons.

The fact that the vote was scheduled at all was a diplomatic surprise.
Many diplomats had expected the vote to take place after January 1,
when there would be new non-permanent members, and supposedly a
greater likelihood of passage. However, the PA insisted on having the
vote today, after France and Luxembourg announced that they would vote
for the resolution, which led the PA to believe they had the necessary
nine votes. That was the miscalculation as Nigeria, which had been
expected to vote in favor, abstained instead.

According to the U.S. State Department: "There are a number of
countries that have indicated they cannot support this resolution.
Even among countries that are longstanding supporters of the
Palestinians and that have indicated they would vote in favor of the
resolution, many of them have also acknowledged that it is an
unconstructive and poorly timed resolution." Reuters and Al Alaribya (Riyadh)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Iron Dome, Gaza War,
Qatar, Egypt, Iran, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Palestinian Authority, Security Council, France, Luxembourg, Nigeria

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*** 1-Jan-15 World View -- The three most important dangers for 2015

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions increase further as oil prices fall
• The three most important dangers for 2015

****
**** Happy New Year to everyone!
****


Fort Bragg fireworks

****
**** Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions increase further as oil prices fall
****

Prices of West Texas Intermediate oil fell another 82 cents on
Wednesday, to $53.27 per barrel. It was just few months ago that the
price was over $100 per barrel, and oil exporting countries, including
Iran, Russia and Venezuela, are facing financial crises as a result.

Saudi Arabia is refusing to cut production in the face of falling oil
prices, and many Iranians are accusing the Saudis of purposely letting
prices fall in order to conduct economic warfare on Iran. According
to an article in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) weekly
newsletter:

<QUOTE>"The most recent Aal-Saud oil war against Iran,
Russia, and Venezuela, waged at the command of the American
bosses, is the newest and most overt Aal-Saud hostility... First
of all, the new Saudi oil war proves once again that as long as
[Iran's] budget is based [almost entirely] on oil, the enemy can
exploit this weapon in order to pressure Iran. For this reason,
there needs to be an initiative, once and for all, so that
[Iran's] revenues will not be oil-based; therefore, senior Iranian
political and economic leaders must seriously address the
'resistance economy' [plan] emphasized in recent years by
[Supreme] Leader [Ali Khamenei], so that we can neutralize weapons
of this kind.

Now that Saudi Arabia is using all its capabilities to harm Iran,
the Islamic Republic [of Iran] can also use all the means at its
disposal to pressure this obsolete, deteriorating regime. Iran has
many options for harming Saudi Arabia. Because this tyrannical,
medieval family is now at its nadir, all Iran needs to do is to
use a single one of these means so that nothing remains of the
entity named the Aal-Saud regime or of Saudi Arabia
itself.

Increased public protests, particularly in the oil-rich eastern
[and largely Shi'ite-majority] areas of Saudi Arabia, have
undermined the legitimacy of Saudi [rule]. These anti-[Saudi]
regime protests are not unique to this part of Saudi Arabia; they
are [also] happening in other parts of it. Additionally, the
Houthis [in Yemen], who are considered Aal-Saud's sworn enemies,
are at Saudi Arabia's back door [Yemen]; all they have to do is
lift one finger for the disintegrating Aal-Saud corpus to
collapse.

Saudi Arabia no longer has the respect it once had from its Arab
neighbors – and has serious problems with some of them. On the
other hand, its support for the terrorist organization ISIS, and
its operation of it, has spawned great hatred of Saudi Arabia in
public opinion, in both the region and the world. Elements of ISIS
that have been fattened by the Saudi regime have become sworn
enemies of Saudi Arabia. Apparently, Saudi Arabia's free oil money
cannot stop the increase in the weakness of the Aal-Saud
regime."<END QUOTE>

Other analysts list serious problems facing the Saudi regime:

• Eastern Saudi Arabia has a Shia majority, with violence
  incited by Iran.
• In Yemen, on Saudi Arabia's southern border, the Iran-linked Shia
  Houthi tribe now controls almost the entire region bordering Saudi
  Arabia.
• In Bahrain, to Saudi Arabia's east, tension is high between
  the Shia majority and the Saudi-supported market dominant
  Sunni minority.
• In Iraq, on Saudi Arabia's northern border, the Saudis face two
  enemies -- the Shia government, and the terrorist the Islamic State /
  of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).

On top of that, Saudi Arabia is facing a looming succession crisis as
the 91-year-old King Abdullah has been taken into a Riyadh hospital.
The country's next ruler will almost certainly be a generation or two
younger, and all the above problems could suddenly become more
serious. Memri and Al Monitor and Business Insider and Platts Financial

****
**** The three most important dangers for 2015
****

No one can seriously doubt that the world has become a much more
dangerous place in 2014, and so now is a good time to review the most
three most important dangers to watch out for in 2015:

• When the "Arab Awakening" began in 2011, it was hoped that it
  would lead to democracy throughout the Mideast, but it's lead to
  nothing but turmoil. There is no Muslim war against Christians, as
  fewer than 2% of people killed in jihadist attacks are Christian.
  Instead, there a massive war of Muslims versus Muslims. (See "29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?"
  ) That
  war has gotten significantly more dangerous in the last year, with the
  destabilization of Libya, the worsening civil war in Yemen, the
  increased tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the rise of the
  Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). That
  worsening trend will continue in 2015, and eventually, the Muslim
  versus Muslim war will engulf the entire Mideast and south Asia.
  
• For years, China has claimed that the entire South China Sea,
  including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
  Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by
  almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to
  the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing
  that they would lose. Instead, China is becoming increasingly
  belligerent militarily, annexing other nations' territories, and
  militarizing the entire sea. This is exactly the behavior that the
  Nazis used, leading to World War II. At the same time, China
  continues to develop advanced missile systems with no other purpose
  than to pre-emptively attack American cities, aircraft carriers, and
  military bases. China's population is becoming extremely
  nationalistic, and are ready to fulfill the "China Dream" by means of
  a massive attack on America.
  
• Financial analysts are positively euphoric, as Wall Street stocks
  reach enormous new highs. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock
  valuations) at an astronomically high 19.5, high above the historical
  average of 14, indicating a huge bubble, and with wild swings. The
  euphoria and wild swings are extremely dangerous, and are similar to
  the pattern preceding the 1929 crash. At the same time, there is a
  global deflationary spiral, with the most obvious sign the plunging
  prices of oil.

Any one of these three could explode in 2015, and they're interrelated
in the sense that one of these major crises could be the trigger for
the others.

There is one crisis that isn't as dangerous as I'd expected. I
thought that Ebola would have spread far more than it has already, but
it hasn't. The mistake that I made was that I didn't believe it was
possible for Ebola to spread so wildly throughout Western Africa, and
stop at the borders of Mali and Côte d'Ivoire. But in fact that has
happened, and I'm still astonished that the international community
was successful in doing that.

The Ebola crisis is far from over, and it's still possible that there
may be major outbreaks in other places, especially war zones and
crowded cities. But for now, it looks like the worst is not going to
occur.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain,
Iraq, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, King Abdullah,
Houthis, Arab Awakening, Libya, China, South China Sea, Ebola,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 2-Jan-15 World View -- European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships
• Syria war deaths increase in 2014, as Muslim vs Muslim war escalates
• Palestine to join the International Criminal Court

****
**** European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships
****


The abandoned cargo ship Blue Sky M on Wednesday, found in the open seas packed with 970 migrants and no crew (Reuters)

In drama on the high seas, the Italian coast guard has rescued two
large merchant ships in the Mediterranean, packed with migrants from
Syria, Eritrea, and Africa. The first ship contained 975 migrants,
and the second ship has 450 migrants.

This is a new development. In the past we've seen migrants come to
Europe in creaky little boats or even inflatable dinghies, sent out
into the open sea with a few dozen migrants in the hope that Italy's
navy or a passing merchant ship will respond to distress calls.

In the case of the two cargo ships, the people smugglers packed
hundreds of people into each one, after typically collecting thousands
of dollars from each migrant, and sent the ship out into the open sea
with no crew, running on autopilot. The Italian navy was able to
board the first ship and take control of it. At this writing, there
is a major naval operation in progress to do the same with the second
ship.

2014 was a record year for both migrant crossings and migrant deaths.
At least 3,072 people while trying to cross the Mediterranean to reach
Europe, though an unknown number may have drowned without being
rescued. And nearly 200,000 migrants attempted the crossing. In
2013, there were about 700 deaths, out of an attempted 60,000
crossings. BBC and Toronto Star

****
**** Syria war deaths increase in 2014, as Muslim vs Muslim war escalates
****

At least 76,021 people died in the Syria conflict in 2014, up
from 73,447 in 2013, 49294 in 2012, and 7,841 in 2011.

Of the 2014 total, 17,790 were civilians, including 3,501 children.

The Syrian war is currently the biggest component of the escalating Muslim versus Muslim war

throughout the Mideast. AFP

****
**** Palestine to join the International Criminal Court
****

Palestine Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas, acting on behalf of
the State of Palestine, has signed the Rome Statute, on the path to
joining the International Criminal Court (ICC). The intent is to
bring war crime charges against Israel, but there are a number of
legal hurdles. The ICC Prosecutor must first recognize Palestine as a
full member and accept its signature to the Rome Statute. Palestine
can then submit complaints to the ICC, but it's up to the Prosecutor
to determine whether to order a preliminary investigation, and then a
full criminal investigation. In that case, Israel will also be able
to bring charges against Hamas for war crimes committed during the
Gaza war. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Blue Sky M, Syria, Eritrea,
Syria, Palestine, Israel, International Criminal Court, ICC

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 2-Jan-15 World View -- European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships
• Syria war deaths increase in 2014, as Muslim vs Muslim war escalates
• Palestine to join the International Criminal Court

****
**** European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships
****


The abandoned cargo ship Blue Sky M on Wednesday, found in the open seas packed with 970 migrants and no crew (Reuters)

In drama on the high seas, the Italian coast guard has rescued two
large merchant ships in the Mediterranean, packed with migrants from
Syria, Eritrea, and Africa. The first ship contained 975 migrants,
and the second ship has 450 migrants.

This is a new development. In the past we've seen migrants come to
Europe in creaky little boats or even inflatable dinghies, sent out
into the open sea with a few dozen migrants in the hope that Italy's
navy or a passing merchant ship will respond to distress calls.

In the case of the two cargo ships, the people smugglers packed
hundreds of people into each one, after typically collecting thousands
of dollars from each migrant, and sent the ship out into the open sea
with no crew, running on autopilot. The Italian navy was able to
board the first ship and take control of it. At this writing, there
is a major naval operation in progress to do the same with the second
ship.

2014 was a record year for both migrant crossings and migrant deaths.
At least 3,072 people while trying to cross the Mediterranean to reach
Europe, though an unknown number may have drowned without being
rescued. And nearly 200,000 migrants attempted the crossing. In
2013, there were about 700 deaths, out of an attempted 60,000
crossings. BBC and Toronto Star

****
**** Syria war deaths increase in 2014, as Muslim vs Muslim war escalates
****

At least 76,021 people died in the Syria conflict in 2014, up
from 73,447 in 2013, 49294 in 2012, and 7,841 in 2011.

Of the 2014 total, 17,790 were civilians, including 3,501 children.

The Syrian war is currently the biggest component of the escalating Muslim versus Muslim war

throughout the Mideast. AFP

****
**** Palestine to join the International Criminal Court
****

Palestine Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas, acting on behalf of
the State of Palestine, has signed the Rome Statute, on the path to
joining the International Criminal Court (ICC). The intent is to
bring war crime charges against Israel, but there are a number of
legal hurdles. The ICC Prosecutor must first recognize Palestine as a
full member and accept its signature to the Rome Statute. Palestine
can then submit complaints to the ICC, but it's up to the Prosecutor
to determine whether to order a preliminary investigation, and then a
full criminal investigation. In that case, Israel will also be able
to bring charges against Hamas for war crimes committed during the
Gaza war. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Blue Sky M, Syria, Eritrea,
Syria, Palestine, Israel, International Criminal Court, ICC

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The crewless ships are the Euro version of Los Coyotes hauling a bunch of amigos in an old semi trailer then leaving the trailer in the middle of the desert. If the amigos manage to jimmy the door open from the inside they try to trek it on foot with little to no water and may actually survive. If not, then they die. Meanwhile Jose Coyote walked away with the 10 to 20K times X paid by the X amigos in the trailer.

*** 3-Jan-15 World View -- Sweden shocked by arson attacks on three mosques in eight days

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sweden shocked by arson attacks on three mosques in eight days
• Obama administration imposes additional sanctions on North Korea

****
**** Sweden shocked by arson attacks on three mosques in eight days
****


Scores of red paper hearts hang on the entrance to the mosque in Uppsala, as demonstrators stood outside, shouting 'Don't touch my mosque' (Getty)

Over an eight-day period, mosques in cities across Sweden -- Eslöv,
Eskilstuna, and Uppsala -- were torched in arson attacks. The words
"Go home Muslim shit" were written on the main door of Uppsala's
mosque on Thursday, after someone threw a Molotov cocktail at the
building. Nobody was injured.

The series of mosque attacks follows the surge in popularity of the
"Sweden Democrats" party, a far-right anti-immigration party. (The
phrase "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.)
The party won 13% of the vote in September elections, and recent
polls put the party's support at over 17%. In early December,
the Sweden Democrats precipitated a government crisis by
withdrawing its approval of the government's proposed budget.

Prime Minister Dagens Nyheter Löfven said that:

<QUOTE> "I will never act in a way that would give power over
the country's development to a neo-fascist single issue political
party that neither respects human diversity or Sweden's democratic
institutions."<END QUOTE>

Löfven called for new snap elections on March 22.

However, the three mosque attacks appear to have changed the country's
mood considerably. After the first attack, Löfven was able to reach a
deal with the main opposition alliance, allowing him to avoid the snap
elections without compromising with the Sweden Democrats.

The public appears to have a mixed reaction to the wave of xenophobia
exposed by the arson attacks on the mosques. More than a thousand
demonstrators took to the streets in Sweden on Friday to protest the
spate of attacks on mosques, carrying a banner that said "Don't touch
my mosque." On the other hand, some online forums saw some Swedes
praising the arson attacks. The Local (Sweden) and AFP and
Deutsche Welle

****
**** Obama administration imposes additional sanctions on North Korea
****

President Obama on Friday for the first time formally accused North
Korea of being responsible for the cyber attack on Sony Pictures.
Also, for the first time, Obama signed an executive order applying new
sanctions specifically in retaliation for the cyber attack. Obama had
previous promised a "proportionate response" to the attack. The
executive order "is a response to the Government of North Korea’s
ongoing provocative, destabilizing, and repressive actions and
policies, particularly its destructive and coercive cyber attack on
Sony Pictures Entertainment," according to the White House.

There are already in place numerous sanctions against North Korea
related to its development of nuclear weapons, and so the new
sanctions are not expected to make much of a difference beyond their
symbolic significance. White House and USA Today

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sweden, Sweden Democrats, Uppsala,
Dagens Nyheter Löfven, North Korea, Sony Pictures

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*** 4-Jan-15 World View -- Far left Greece election victory may trigger confrontation with Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Far left Greece election victory may trigger confrontation with Europe
• Villagers evacuated after gunfire exchange in Kashmir on India-Pakistan border
• Israel cuts payments to Palestinians in retaliation for ICC bid

****
**** Far left Greece election victory may trigger confrontation with Europe
****


Torn euro flag from Greece austerity protests in January 2013

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly said that she's
prepared to support Greece leaving the eurozone, and returning its
original drachma currency, if Greece abandons the austerity
commitments it made in return for the 240 billion euro bailout that
has already been paid. During previous Greek crisis events, it was
feared that Greece leaving the eurozone would completely destabilize
the euro currency, but reportedly Merkel believes that the euro has
become sufficiently strong to withstand a Greek exit.

The new crisis may be precipitated with the snap elections on January
25. The radical far left Syriza party, led by Alexis Tspiras, is now
ahead in the polls, at 30.4%. Tspiras has promised to renege on
Greece's austerity commitments. He also promised to do away with a
real estate tax, freeze house foreclosures, raise the minimum wage and
reinstate a 12,000 euro ($14,400) tax-free threshold to help low
earners.

How would Tspiras like to pay for all these enormous social programs?
There's going to be a policy meeting of the European Central Bank
(ECB) on January 22. At that meeting, there may be an announced plan
for the ECB to "print money" by purchasing billions of dollars in
government bonds (quantitative easing). In that case, Tspiras would
like the ECB to purchase billions of dollars worth of worthless Greek
bonds, so that Greece can use that money to pay for all the welfare
handouts. I can just imagine Angela Merkel agreeing to that scenario.
This is shaping up to be quite a spectacle. Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini

****
**** Villagers evacuated after gunfire exchange in Kashmir on India-Pakistan border
****

It's once again necessary to evacuate villagers near the
India-Pakistan border in Kashmir and Jammu, after gunfire was
exchanged this week between Indian and Pakistani forces. Two people,
including a 13-year-old girl, were killed and eight more injured, in
several incidents, with casualties on both sides.

Kashmir was a major battleground for the 1947 Partition war that
following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and
Pakistan, one of the bloodiest wars of the last century, and there
have been two more wars fought across the Line of Control (LoC)
separating Pakistan and India since then. There have been gunfire
incidents across the LoC for years, though it's been relatively
peaceful since a cease-fire agreement in 2003. However, as we reported in October,
there was a new
round of gunfire, the worst in years. At that time, Pakistan said
that Indian forces resorted to "unprovoked firing," while India blamed
Pakistan for firing first, and promised "effective retaliation."

With regard to this week's new fighting, India's military said:

<QUOTE>"Pakistani troops resorted to unprovoked and heavy
firing and mortar shelling on posts and civilian areas along [the
border]. [Border Security Force] troops gave a befitting
reply."<END QUOTE>

In response, Pakistan's military accused India of an unprovoked
barrage of artillery, and the Defense Ministry issued a threat:

<QUOTE>"In the past six-seven months, we have tried to better
our ties with India so that peace can prevail. But it seems that
they do not understand this language. I believe, we will now
communicate with India in the language they
understand."<END QUOTE>

The thing that has definitely changed in the last six-seven months is
that both sides are significantly hardening their positions, and
exhibiting a willingness to shoot first and ask questions later.
India Times and Kashmir Watch

****
**** Israel cuts payments to Palestinians in retaliation for ICC bid
****

The decision by Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas
last week to apply on behalf of the State of Palestine to join the International Criminal Court (ICC)
has brought retaliation, as originally promised by Israel's
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel is withholding $175 million
in tax collections from the PA. This is money that Israel collects
administratively on behalf of the PA in taxes and fees. The amount
being withheld is the collections from December.

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat called the move an act of "piracy"
and a "collective punishment" against the Palestinian people:

<QUOTE>"If Israel thinks that through economic pressure it
will succeed in diverting our approach from freedom and
independence, then it is wrong. This is the money of the
Palestinian people and Israel is not a donor
country."<END QUOTE>

Israel's left-wing opposition was also critical of the move, saying,
"Netanyahu has no real solution to Israel's deteriorating situation on
the world stage. Whoever is weak in the face of (Palestinian President
Abbas) and fails to act to take steps that will protect IDF soldiers
in The Hague cannot really stop this trend." They're opposing
Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, and recommending negotiating with
Hamas, rather than with Mahmoud Abbas.

There's a feeling of déjà vu in this situation. In December
2012, Israel withheld $100 million in tax revenues from the PA
in retaliation when Mahmoud Abbas applied
to the United Nations General Assembly to create a state of Palestine
with non-member observer status. However, the tax payments were
reinstated shortly afterwards. AP and YNet


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel, Greece,
Syriza, Alexis Tspiras, European Central Bank,
Pakistan, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Line of Control,
Israel, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
International Criminal Court, ICC, Benjamin Netanyahu

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*** 5-Jan-15 World View -- War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces
• Iran's Rouhani challenges Khamenei in speech demanding reforms

****
**** War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces
****


Followers watch a televised speech by al-Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi commemorating the birth of Prophet Mohammed in Sanaa on Saturday (Reuters)

We've been reporting recently on the growing war between Muslim tribes
and sects that is threatening to engulf the entire Mideast, and Yemen
is part of that trend. During 2014, at least 7,000 people were
killed, including at least 1,200 civilians.

This last year saw the rise of the al-Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia
tribe, originally from northwest Yemen on the border with Saudi
Arabia. In September, the al-Houthi militias moved south and captured
Sanaa, the nation's capital, ousting the Sunni-led government. Since
then, they've continued to take control of additional mainly Sunni
provinces, and it's now thought that the al-Houthis control about 70%
of the army's capabilities. It's believed that the al-Houthis are
being backed by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The al-Houthis are opposed by two Sunni groups. One is al-Qaeda on
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), currently considered to be the most
dangerous branch of al-Qaeda. The second is the Islamist Al-Islah
movement, a collection of Sunni tribes that have lost power since the
Houthi takeover, and who are now cooperating against AQAP against the
al-Houthis.

There's a third power center -- a growing secessionist movement in the
south. Prior to 1994, North Yemen and South Yemen were two separate
countries.

The international community had hoped that Yemen would be stabilized
by a peace plan agreement made last year in February to divide the
country into six federally organized regions. However, al-Houthi
leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi announced in a televised address on
Saturday that he was completely rejecting the peace agreement. Beware
of any attempts to overthrow the revolution," he said. Al-Arabiya and AP and AEI Critical Threats Project

****
**** Iran's Rouhani challenges Khamenei in speech demanding reforms
****

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday called for an end to the
country's international isolation by curbing corruption and
mismanagement with reforms that are opposed by Supreme leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei and by the Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps (IRGC). According to Rouhani:

<QUOTE>"Our economy will not prosper as long as it is
monopolised (by the government). The economy must be rid of
monopoly and see competition.

It must be freed of insider speculation, be transparent, all
people must be aware of the statistics. If we can bring
transparency to our economy, we can fight corruption.

Our political life has shown we can't have sustainable growth
while we are isolated."<END QUOTE>

Rouhani has threatened to call a national referendum if he can't get the
reforms he's demanding:

<QUOTE>"As the enforcer of our constitution, I would like,
even for once, to see conditions ripe to implement a tenet of the
common law calling for major issues - economic, social, political
and cultural - to be put to public referendum rather than
parliamentary vote.

Some 36 years have passed now and this article has not been
enforced even once."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a
generational Awakening era, just one generation past the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. There is
a "generation gap" splitting the hardline survivors of the crisis wars
from the younger generations growing up after the war. This is
similar to America in the 1960s, when there was a generation gap
between the World War II survivors and the generations growing up
after the war.

As I've been writing for ten years, Iran's younger generations are
generally pro-American and not particularly anti-Israel. Iran will be
our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Payvand (Iran) and
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, al-Houthis, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, al-Islah,
Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Israel,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 5-Jan-15 World View -- War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces
• Iran's Rouhani challenges Khamenei in speech demanding reforms

****
**** War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces
****


Followers watch a televised speech by al-Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi commemorating the birth of Prophet Mohammed in Sanaa on Saturday (Reuters)

We've been reporting recently on the growing war between Muslim tribes
and sects that is threatening to engulf the entire Mideast, and Yemen
is part of that trend. During 2014, at least 7,000 people were
killed, including at least 1,200 civilians.

This last year saw the rise of the al-Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia
tribe, originally from northwest Yemen on the border with Saudi
Arabia. In September, the al-Houthi militias moved south and captured
Sanaa, the nation's capital, ousting the Sunni-led government. Since
then, they've continued to take control of additional mainly Sunni
provinces, and it's now thought that the al-Houthis control about 70%
of the army's capabilities. It's believed that the al-Houthis are
being backed by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The al-Houthis are opposed by two Sunni groups. One is al-Qaeda on
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), currently considered to be the most
dangerous branch of al-Qaeda. The second is the Islamist Al-Islah
movement, a collection of Sunni tribes that have lost power since the
Houthi takeover, and who are now cooperating against AQAP against the
al-Houthis.

There's a third power center -- a growing secessionist movement in the
south. Prior to 1994, North Yemen and South Yemen were two separate
countries.

The international community had hoped that Yemen would be stabilized
by a peace plan agreement made last year in February to divide the
country into six federally organized regions. However, al-Houthi
leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi announced in a televised address on
Saturday that he was completely rejecting the peace agreement. Beware
of any attempts to overthrow the revolution," he said. Al-Arabiya and AP and AEI Critical Threats Project

****
**** Iran's Rouhani challenges Khamenei in speech demanding reforms
****

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday called for an end to the
country's international isolation by curbing corruption and
mismanagement with reforms that are opposed by Supreme leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei and by the Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps (IRGC). According to Rouhani:

<QUOTE>"Our economy will not prosper as long as it is
monopolised (by the government). The economy must be rid of
monopoly and see competition.

It must be freed of insider speculation, be transparent, all
people must be aware of the statistics. If we can bring
transparency to our economy, we can fight corruption.

Our political life has shown we can't have sustainable growth
while we are isolated."<END QUOTE>

Rouhani has threatened to call a national referendum if he can't get the
reforms he's demanding:

<QUOTE>"As the enforcer of our constitution, I would like,
even for once, to see conditions ripe to implement a tenet of the
common law calling for major issues - economic, social, political
and cultural - to be put to public referendum rather than
parliamentary vote.

Some 36 years have passed now and this article has not been
enforced even once."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a
generational Awakening era, just one generation past the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. There is
a "generation gap" splitting the hardline survivors of the crisis wars
from the younger generations growing up after the war. This is
similar to America in the 1960s, when there was a generation gap
between the World War II survivors and the generations growing up
after the war.

As I've been writing for ten years, Iran's younger generations are
generally pro-American and not particularly anti-Israel. Iran will be
our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Payvand (Iran) and
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, al-Houthis, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, al-Islah,
Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Israel,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

The goal of the US and our NATO allies should be to restore "The Northern Tier" of yore. And this time around, convince India that all the hegemonic SCO powers are never really going to look after India's interests and would instead stab India in the back. India's interests lie with the Anglosphere and the overarching Free World. As do the interests of all the former "Northern Tier" countries all along the Southern Margins of Central Asia.

*** 6-Jan-15 World View -- Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Germany's PEGIDA 'anti-Islamization' protests grow, stirring counter-protests
• Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday
• Europe speeds ahead to a new, bigger Greece crisis
• Surge in migrants from Cuba trying to reach the U.S. illegally

****
**** Germany's PEGIDA 'anti-Islamization' protests grow, stirring counter-protests
****


Cologne Cathedral lights turned off in protest of Pegida rallies

That anti-Islam PEGIDA movement ("Patriotische Europäer gegen die
Islamisierung des Abendlandes," or "Patriotic Europeans Against the
Islamization of the West") protests have been growing in size since
the movement's founding in October, but they're also stirring
counter-protests by those considering Pegida to be xenophobic.

In Cologne on Monday evening, 20,000 residents gathered on the streets
to block Pegida protests in that city, carrying banners that read
"Nazis, out!" "We will not let a racist mob run free on Cologne's
streets." In addition, the lights on bridges over the Rhine and the
Cologne Cathedral were turned off. According to the dean of the
cathedral, "We don't think of it as a protest, but we would like to
make the many conservative Christians [who support Pegida] think about
what they are doing." The Pegida demonstrations were canceled in
Cologne.

But in Dresden, where Pegida is headquartered, 18,000 people turned up
for one anti-immigration rally, carrying signs that said, "Germany for
Germans!" and "No to Islamization of Europe!"

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has publicly condemned Pegida.
Deutsche Welle and BBC

****
**** Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday
****

A couple of weeks ago, on a day when investors were in a drunken
euphoria because the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 421 points,
I pointed out
that if the market
could go up 421 points in one day, then it could just as easily go
down 421 points in one day. That didn't quite happen on Monday, but
there was a plunge of 331 points, illustrating how dangerous the
recent drunken euphoria is. Indeed, a number of things happened in
unison.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell briefly below $50 per barrel on
Monday, before settling at $50.44 per barrel, representing a plunge of
4.3%. It was just a few months ago that it was in the range $100-110
per barrel. Although lower oil prices means lower gasoline prices,
it's also signaling a decrease in demand, as the global economy slows
down and continues its deflationary spiral.

European stocks also fell on Monday, from 2-4%. The fall in oil
prices affected a number of energy companies, resulting in something
of a domino effect, and a new report showed that Germany is getting
closer to deflation.

The euro currency tumbled to a nine-year low against the dollar, based
on widespread concerns that the European Central Bank (ECB) is going
to start "printing money" (quantitative easing), in order to bail out
Greece again.

In his weekly investors newsletter, investment guru John P. Hussman
says that he's in the camp that believes that "the likelihood of a
market loss on the order of 40%, 50% or even 60% in the next few years
is quite high."

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 2) was back up to an
astronomically high 18.66. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

It's not known even today what the event was that triggered the 1929
panic, except that conditions just prior to the panic were similar to
conditions today -- an astronomically high P/E ratio, and a period of
highly volatile wild swings in stock prices. Motley Fool and AP and Bloomberg and Dow Jones and
John P. Hussman

****
**** Europe speeds ahead to a new, bigger Greece crisis
****

As we recently reported,

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly said that she's
prepared to support Greece leaving the eurozone, and returning its
original drachma currency, if Greece abandons the austerity
commitments it made in return for the 240 billion euro bailout that
has already been paid.

Polls are showing that the radical far left Syriza party, led by
Alexis Tspiras, is poised to win Greek elections on January 25. With
Tspiras promising to renege on Greece's austerity commitments, Merkel's remarks have triggered a major debate in Europe.

Here are some of the things that various analysts and politicians
are saying:

• Merkel didn't really mean it; it was just meant as a warning
  to Tspiras.
  
• In fact, when Tspiras wins, he'll forget his campaign promises and
  fall in line with European demands, just as Socialist Andreas
  Papandreou forgot his campaign promises after a victor in the 1981
  elections.
  
• Merkel is right. If Tspiras continues and Greece leaves the euro
  currency, returning to the drachma currency, then the eurozone is now
  strong and stable enough to go on. The difference between today and
  the last Greece crisis in 2011 is that there have been a number of ECB
  reforms, including the creation of a permanent bailout fund , the
  European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The result is that officials in
  Berlin and Brussels no longer subscribe to the so-called "domino
  theory," which held that a Greek collapse would be followed by
  others. It has been replaced by the "chain theory," which holds that
  the entire chain would become stronger were its weakest link to be
  eliminated.
  
• Merkel is wrong. Giving in and allowing far-left Tspiras to
  renege on Greece's austerity commitments would cause a domino effect,
  destabilizing the governments in Italy and France, which would like to
  be relieved of their own austerity requirements.

Despite 25% unemployment in Greece, the Germans are not prepared to
make significant concessions to Tspiras, because significant
concessions have already been made -- Greece has been allowed more
time to pay down its debt than originally agreed and interest payments
have been largely discontinued.

The existing aid programs for Greece are set to expire at the end of
February. It's pretty certain that there's going to be a major new
Greek crisis during the next two months, although no one knows how
that crisis is going to turn out. Greek Reporter and Der Spiegel and AP

****
**** Surge in migrants from Cuba trying to reach the U.S. illegally
****


Coast Guard approaches a Cuban vessel with 12 migrants on December 30. The migrants were later repatriated to Cuba

According to the Coast Guard, the rate of Cuban migrants attempting to
reach the U.S. illegally has more than doubled since the December 17
announcement restoring diplomatic relations between Cuba and the
United States. Cubans on the island are speeding up their plans to
make the trip because they fear that immigration laws are about to
change, making it more difficult to avoid deportation. Miami Herald


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Cologne, Dresden, PEGIDA,
Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes,
Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West,
Europe, Wall Street, West Texas Intermediate oil, WTI,
Greece, Syriza, Alexis Tspiras, Angela Merkel,
Cuba, illegal migrants

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 6-Jan-15 World View -- Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Germany's PEGIDA 'anti-Islamization' protests grow, stirring counter-protests
• Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday
• Europe speeds ahead to a new, bigger Greece crisis
• Surge in migrants from Cuba trying to reach the U.S. illegally

****
**** Germany's PEGIDA 'anti-Islamization' protests grow, stirring counter-protests
****


Cologne Cathedral lights turned off in protest of Pegida rallies

That anti-Islam PEGIDA movement ("Patriotische Europäer gegen die
Islamisierung des Abendlandes," or "Patriotic Europeans Against the
Islamization of the West") protests have been growing in size since
the movement's founding in October, but they're also stirring
counter-protests by those considering Pegida to be xenophobic.

In Cologne on Monday evening, 20,000 residents gathered on the streets
to block Pegida protests in that city, carrying banners that read
"Nazis, out!" "We will not let a racist mob run free on Cologne's
streets." In addition, the lights on bridges over the Rhine and the
Cologne Cathedral were turned off. According to the dean of the
cathedral, "We don't think of it as a protest, but we would like to
make the many conservative Christians [who support Pegida] think about
what they are doing." The Pegida demonstrations were canceled in
Cologne.

But in Dresden, where Pegida is headquartered, 18,000 people turned up
for one anti-immigration rally, carrying signs that said, "Germany for
Germans!" and "No to Islamization of Europe!"

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has publicly condemned Pegida.
Deutsche Welle and BBC

****
**** Wall Street, European stocks, euro, oil all plunge on Monday
****

A couple of weeks ago, on a day when investors were in a drunken
euphoria because the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 421 points,
I pointed out
that if the market
could go up 421 points in one day, then it could just as easily go
down 421 points in one day. That didn't quite happen on Monday, but
there was a plunge of 331 points, illustrating how dangerous the
recent drunken euphoria is. Indeed, a number of things happened in
unison.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell briefly below $50 per barrel on
Monday, before settling at $50.44 per barrel, representing a plunge of
4.3%. It was just a few months ago that it was in the range $100-110
per barrel. Although lower oil prices means lower gasoline prices,
it's also signaling a decrease in demand, as the global economy slows
down and continues its deflationary spiral.

European stocks also fell on Monday, from 2-4%. The fall in oil
prices affected a number of energy companies, resulting in something
of a domino effect, and a new report showed that Germany is getting
closer to deflation.

The euro currency tumbled to a nine-year low against the dollar, based
on widespread concerns that the European Central Bank (ECB) is going
to start "printing money" (quantitative easing), in order to bail out
Greece again.

In his weekly investors newsletter, investment guru John P. Hussman
says that he's in the camp that believes that "the likelihood of a
market loss on the order of 40%, 50% or even 60% in the next few years
is quite high."

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 2) was back up to an
astronomically high 18.66. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

It's not known even today what the event was that triggered the 1929
panic, except that conditions just prior to the panic were similar to
conditions today -- an astronomically high P/E ratio, and a period of
highly volatile wild swings in stock prices. Motley Fool and AP and Bloomberg and Dow Jones and
John P. Hussman

****
**** Europe speeds ahead to a new, bigger Greece crisis
****

As we recently reported,

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly said that she's
prepared to support Greece leaving the eurozone, and returning its
original drachma currency, if Greece abandons the austerity
commitments it made in return for the 240 billion euro bailout that
has already been paid.

Polls are showing that the radical far left Syriza party, led by
Alexis Tspiras, is poised to win Greek elections on January 25. With
Tspiras promising to renege on Greece's austerity commitments, Merkel's remarks have triggered a major debate in Europe.

Here are some of the things that various analysts and politicians
are saying:

• Merkel didn't really mean it; it was just meant as a warning
  to Tspiras.
• In fact, when Tspiras wins, he'll forget his campaign promises and
  fall in line with European demands, just as Socialist Andreas
  Papandreou forgot his campaign promises after a victor in the 1981
  elections.
• Merkel is right. If Tspiras continues and Greece leaves the euro
  currency, returning to the drachma currency, then the eurozone is now
  strong and stable enough to go on. The difference between today and
  the last Greece crisis in 2011 is that there have been a number of ECB
  reforms, including the creation of a permanent bailout fund , the
  European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The result is that officials in
  Berlin and Brussels no longer subscribe to the so-called "domino
  theory," which held that a Greek collapse would be followed by
  others. It has been replaced by the "chain theory," which holds that
  the entire chain would become stronger were its weakest link to be
  eliminated.
• Merkel is wrong. Giving in and allowing far-left Tspiras to
  renege on Greece's austerity commitments would cause a domino effect,
  destabilizing the governments in Italy and France, which would like to
  be relieved of their own austerity requirements.

Despite 25% unemployment in Greece, the Germans are not prepared to
make significant concessions to Tspiras, because significant
concessions have already been made -- Greece has been allowed more
time to pay down its debt than originally agreed and interest payments
have been largely discontinued.

The existing aid programs for Greece are set to expire at the end of
February. It's pretty certain that there's going to be a major new
Greek crisis during the next two months, although no one knows how
that crisis is going to turn out. Greek Reporter and Der Spiegel and AP

****
**** Surge in migrants from Cuba trying to reach the U.S. illegally
****


Coast Guard approaches a Cuban vessel with 12 migrants on December 30. The migrants were later repatriated to Cuba

According to the Coast Guard, the rate of Cuban migrants attempting to
reach the U.S. illegally has more than doubled since the December 17
announcement restoring diplomatic relations between Cuba and the
United States. Cubans on the island are speeding up their plans to
make the trip because they fear that immigration laws are about to
change, making it more difficult to avoid deportation. Miami Herald


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Cologne, Dresden, PEGIDA,
Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes,
Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West,
Europe, Wall Street, West Texas Intermediate oil, WTI,
Greece, Syriza, Alexis Tspiras, Angela Merkel,
Cuba, illegal migrants

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

The next "Age of Migrations" (aka "The Dark Age") is knocking on the door.

*** 7-Jan-15 World View -- Bethlehem celebrates the second of its three Christmases

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bethlehem celebrates the second of its three Christmases
• Hamas blasts Abbas's plan to re-submit statehood resolution to the Security Council
• US weights cutting aid to Palestinians after ICC application

****
**** Bethlehem celebrates the second of its three Christmases
****


Members of the marching band of the Arab Orthodox Scouts of Beit Sahour march through Manger Square in Bethlehem.

It's Christmas in Bethlehem today (Wednesday). Bethlehem is unique in
that it celebrates Christmas three times each year:

• Catholic and Protestants celebrate Christmas on December
  25.
  
• Most Orthodox Churches, including the Greek Orthodox, Ethiopian,
  Russian Orthodox, Coptic and Syrian, celebrate Christmas on January 7,
  thanks to a switch to the Gregorian calendar in 1576.
  
• The Armenian Orthodox Church in Jerusalem celebrates Christmas on
  January 19, due to another calendar change.

About 50% of the Palestinian Arab Christian community across Israel
and the Palestinian territories belong to the Orthodox Church of
Jerusalem, and celebrate Christmas on January 7. Jerusalem Post and Middle East Monitor

****
**** Hamas blasts Abbas's plan to re-submit statehood resolution to the Security Council
****

It's been a week since Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas
suffered a humiliating defeat in the U.N. Security Council, when it
rejected, without even requiring a U.S. veto, Abbas's resolution that
would require Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territories to
pre-1967 borders by 2017.

Following the rejection, Abbas signed the documents to apply on behalf
of the State of Palestine to join the International Criminal Court
(ICC), in order to bring war crimes charges against Israeli officials.
Israel retaliated by withholding $175 million in tax collections
from the PA.

According to one theory, this was all part of a larger plan. This
theory suggests that Abbas knew that the Security Council vote would
be rejected (which is certainly true), and that he wanted an excuse to
join the ICC. The purpose is to shape the narrative of conflict,
changing it from the "peace process" to "war crimes." Joining the ICC
means that Israeli soldiers and commanders could be arrested and tried
for war crimes when they travel abroad.

As of January 1, the makeup of the Security Council has changed, with
Angola, Malaysia and Venezuela replacing Rwanda, South Korea and
Argentina as non-permanent members. Abbas has said that he plans to
re-submit the resolution, expecting that with the new membership he
would get the required nine votes for passage. However, there would
still be a U.S. veto in that case.

However, Hamas is completely opposed to any submission to the Security
Council, because a successful resolution would "legitimize Israeli
occupation." According to Hamas co-founder Mahmoud Zahar:

<QUOTE>"This Palestinian resolution is catastrophic and has
no future on the land of Palestine. The future belongs to the
resistance. We will continue to work to liberate all the land and
achieve the right of return for Palestinian refugees. Hamas will
not accept anything less than all the lands that were occupied in
1948."<END QUOTE>

Once again, Abbas is trying to calm the waters by seeking a solution
that might avoid all out war between Palestinians and Israelis. As
I've written many times, Abbas was born in 1935, and survived the
horrific 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that following the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
Like most survivors of generational crisis wars, Abbas has literally
devoted his life to doing everything possible to prevent that horrific
kind of war from occurring again. As regular readers know,
Generational Dynamics predicts that he will not succeed in preventing
that horrific war, though he may continue to postpone it.

In fact, the man that most Palestinians consider the most likely
successor to 80-year-old Abbas is the fiery 53-year-old Mohammed
Dahlan, who announced on Saturday that he would form a united front in
opposition to Abbas. According to Dahlan:

<QUOTE>"Most of the Palestinian people oppose the proposal
that [Abbas] put forward [at the Security Council]. This was a
hasty and reckless decision that wasn’t made with the unified
consensus of the Palestinians. The proposal was changed a number
of times without consultation of the decision makers. This was a
decision that constitutes a new disaster for relations with Israel
which will bring shame and destruction of the Palestinian
issue."<END QUOTE>

Bloomberg and Palestine Chronicle and Times of Israel

****
**** US weights cutting aid to Palestinians after ICC application
****

The Obama administration said Monday it was reviewing its annual $440
million aid package to the Palestinians because of their effort to
join the International Criminal Court to pursue war-crimes charges
against Israel. Under American law, any Palestinian case against
Israel at the court would trigger an immediate cutoff of
U.S. financial support. Membership itself doesn't automatically incur
U.S. punishment. AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bethlehem, Palestinian territories,
Christmas, Israel, Mahmoud Abbas, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Security Council, Mohammed Dahlan, Hamas, Mahmoud Zahar

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Due to an editing error, much of today's article as originally posted
was deleted. The above edited version is the full article.

*** 8-Jan-15 World View -- The historic dilemma of the West versus the Muslim jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The historic dilemma of the West versus the Muslim jihadists
• Eurozone inflation rate becomes negative, falling into deflation

****
**** The historic dilemma of the West versus the Muslim jihadists
****


After Wednesday's attack, France is on high alert with thousands more police on the streets in Paris (Reuters)

Wednesday's terrorist attack in Paris requires an appraisal of where
the world stands today:

• There is already a historic, growing war going on in the
  Mideast and south Asia, with jihadist Muslims killing thousands of
  other Muslims every month. This is a growing war, and it's both
  ethnic (pitting tribe against tribe) and sectarian (pitting Sunnis
  against Shias). Christians and westerners killed by these jihadists
  are a minuscule percentage of the people killed. (See "29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?"
  )
  
• There are various objectives of this Muslim versus Muslim war:
  Iran wants hegemony over the entire Mideast; al-Qaeda linked groups
  want to duplicate the Iran's 1979 Shia Islamic revolution in another
  country, such as Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Algeria; the
  Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) wants control
  of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the entire Levant.
  
• In what is, in my opinion, a deliberate public relations
  obfuscation tactic, to avoid having to admit that they're killing
  hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims, the jihadists portray their
  war as a war against the West, and kill several thousand Westerners
  per year. This PR tactic justifies their actions, even though what's
  really happening is that they're massacring huge numbers of
  Muslims.
  
• Mainstream Muslim scholars are calling the jihadists apostates,
  not real Muslims. One opinion writer in Pakistan recently referred to
  them as "terrorists in Muslim garb killing Muslims."
  
• In support of the jihadist PR tactic, thousands of disaffected
  young men and women from countries around the world have gone to Syria
  to be trained in terrorism. Some of them have already returned to
  their native countries.
  
• At the same time, thousands of refugee Muslim immigrants are
  fleeing the war in Syria and persecution in Africa by flooding into
  Europe, where they are tolerated but not wanted. (Similarly thousands
  of Christian immigrants are fleeing Latin America for the U.S., to
  escape poverty and violence.)
  
• Of the 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, about 1.5 billion of them
  just want to live in peace, have families, feed their children, and
  grow old gracefully.
  
• One of the goals of the jihadist PR tactic of killing Westerners
  to hide their massive slaughter of Muslims is that there are growing
  xenophobic anti-Muslim groups, sometimes neo-Nazi, creating a backlash
  against ordinary Muslims. ( "6-Jan-15 World View -- Germany's PEGIDA 'anti-Islamization' protests grow, stirring counter-protests"
  ) These xenophobic
  and neo-Nazi groups are an important part of the jihadists' strategy,
  because they are used to justify the existence and tactics of the
  jihadist organizations.

Wednesday's terrorist attacks in Paris are certain to exacerbate
these trends.

This was not a random shooting. The terrorists were well trained in
using assault weapons, and the attack was carried out with clockwork
precision, probably after being planned for weeks. They spoke perfect
French, leading to the speculation that they were home-grown
terrorists who had gone to Syria for training. The terrorists
murdered the editor and several cartoonists at the French satirical
magazine Charlie Hebdo, which had published cartoons and articles
mocking Islam and the Prophet Mohammed. They shouted, "We have
avenged the prophet" and "Allahu akbar" (God is great). It's said to
be the deadliest terror attack on French soil in 50 years, since 1961
when a right-wing paramilitary organization opposed to France's
withdrawal from Algeria blew up a train killing 28 people.

Some Muslim leaders are blaming the attack on the victims. According
to one Sunni Muslim scholar, it came as a response to "extremism from
the other side." "When freedom of thought oversteps boundaries and
legitimizes and encourages the insult of other religions, there will
be such consequences." I disagree with this conclusion. In my
opinion, it's the other way around, with the mocking of Mohammed
purposely triggered by the actions and PR strategy of the jihadists.

Wednesday's attack is creating a backlash within the populations of
the West, especially Europe:

• First, people are uniting behind freedom of speech.
  Ironically, it's noteworthy that no publication is reprinting the
  Charlie Hebdo cartoons that angered the jihadists, for fear of a
  similar attack on their own organizations. In that sense, "the
  terrorists have won."
  
• Second, xenophobic and neo-Nazi anti-Islam groups are expected to
  grow in strength, and become major political forces, especially in
  Europe. This is a particular problem for France, where 8-10% of the
  population are Muslim, many of them disillusioned with the French
  government.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the kind of
thing that happens during generational Crisis eras. In World War II,
Japanese were interred, while Germans were not. Today, Muslims are
under suspicion (probably with worse to come), while Chinese are not.

This isn't true only in the West. In China, for example,
anti-American and anti-Japanese xenophobia are also growing.

As the world today goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, we can
expect xenophobia and nationalism to increase in nations around the
world. The world becomes a more dangerous place every day, and the
growing Muslim versus Muslim war is just one part of it. It's only a
matter of time until somebody does something that triggers a real war.
AFP and USA Today and Bloomberg and Telegraph (London) and The Trumpet

****
**** Eurozone inflation rate becomes negative, falling into deflation
****

The inflation rate in the eurozone has been extremely low for years,
as we've reported several times, and in December it crossed over into
deflation, with an inflation rate of -0.2%. The deflation is being
blamed on the falling price of oil. Deflation in Europe is an
important story, and there's a lot more to be said, but it's been
squeezed out by the news from Paris. Maybe tomorrow. BBC and Eurostat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Paris, Charlie Hebdo,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
eurozone, deflation

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Real war means global thermonuclear war, with significant instances of (banned) chemical and biological weapons, in addition to the thermonuclear ones, being used by the Axis powers. Millions and perhaps billions will perish. The funeral pyres will be visible from space and will burn for years, throughout the course of the war. That will be the only way to handle that many corpses.

Shove it JohnX, Jihadists have been killing westerners since 1979, yet you rationalize it because an anti-western muslim Jihad does not fit your own biases. Also when you briefly mention Chinese xenophobia you placed the word anti-American before anti-Japanese, as if they are more anti-American than they are anti-Japanese. Anyone who knows anything about the modern Chinese knows that they are MUCH more anti-Japanese than they are anti-American or anti-west. Also Iran is China's ally in the middle east, not the Sunni states, the Sunni states are overwhelmingly aligned with the US and usually side with the US whenever there is an attempt at an important resolutions at the UN (these are usually vetoed by Russia).

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Real war means global thermonuclear war, with significant instances of (banned) chemical and biological weapons, in addition to the thermonuclear ones, being used by the Axis powers. Millions and perhaps billions will perish. The funeral pyres will be visible from space and will burn for years, throughout the course of the war. That will be the only way to handle that many corpses.

I can't see how a war if the WMDs are used can last for several years. Once large-scale WMD use begins by one side or the other, the other side would simply use their own WMDs, once that occurs I can see such warfare being sustained for longer than a few days.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> I can't see how a war if the WMDs are used can last for several
> years. Once large-scale WMD use begins by one side or the other,
> the other side would simply use their own WMDs, once that occurs I
> can see such warfare being sustained for longer than a few
> days.

Actually, that isn't true. Even a large nuclear weapon has a kill
range of just 5-10 miles, including aftereffects. So even if every
nuclear weapon in the world were used, 99% of the world would still
exist. And once all the nuclear weapons are used, then there would
still be huge armies fighting each other for years.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Actually, that isn't true. Even a large nuclear weapon has a kill
range of just 5-10 miles, including aftereffects. So even if every
nuclear weapon in the world were used, 99% of the world would still
exist. And once all the nuclear weapons are used, then there would
still be huge armies fighting each other for years.

And the centrifuges would continue spinning. The smart countries have ones hidden deep under ground. Others may have them in orbit, in secret stealth space stations. Even stupid countries who have theirs at the edge of the Texas panhandle in plain site, could build new ones. Nothing can ever undo the knowledge of WMDs and the desire to make and use them.

*** 9-Jan-15 World View -- Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Qatar may be turning against Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
• Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12

****
**** Qatar may be turning against Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
****


Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal

Last summer's Gaza war between Israel and Hamas tore open a gash
between Arab and Mideast countries, with Qatar, Turkey and Iran
strongly supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoot Hamas,
versus Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia opposing
Hamas, hence supporting Israel. The differences were expressed with
extreme vitriol, especially after Hamas was thoroughly defeated by
Israel in the war. But Saudi Arabia managed to convince Qatar to a
reconciliation prior to the big Arab summit meeting last month.

Hamas's defeat is only a small part of their problems. Hamas used to
have a headquarters office in Damascus, Syria. But in 2011 Syria's
genocidal president Bashar al-Assad started exterminating innocent
Sunni women and children, forcing a split between al-Assad and Hamas's
leader, Khaled Mashaal. After months of rumors, Mashaal and Hamas HQ
moved to Doha, Qatar, allowing Mashaal to direct the summer Gaza war
from afar.

Now, thanks to the reconciliation, there are reports that Qatar is
throwing Mashaal out of Doha. Hamas is denying the reports, but other
reports are saying that if Mashaal stays in Doha, then he has to agree
to keep a very low profile, and not do anything to embarrass Doha. A
Hamas official was quoted as saying, "Hamas was asked at least not to
engage in any high-profile political activities that may be
interpreted as Qatar still supporting the Muslim Brotherhood,
particularly after the Egyptian–Qatari reconciliation."

If Mashaal leaves Doha, then he has three choices: Ankara Turkey or
Tehran Iran or Khartoum Sudan, the capitals of the three countries
that still support Hamas. Iran is a particularly problematic choice,
because Hamas still strongly opposes al-Assad while Iran supports
al-Assad, and because Hamas is Sunni Muslim while Iran is Shia Muslim,
so they have little in common except their common hatred for Israel.

Current speculation is that Mashaal and Hamas headquarters are headed
for Ankara. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh)

****
**** Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12
****

Russia is on a long-term holiday that started two weeks ago and ends
on Monday, January 12. At that time, the banks and the stock exchange
will reopen, and it's feared that both the ruble and the Moscow stock
exchange will fall sharply. Russia's economy is being hit hard by
multiple problems: Russia's main source of income has been deeply
slashed because oil prices have been collapsing. The inflation rate
has grown from 6.5% to 11.4% in a few months, with food prices growing
at 15.4%.

The invasion and occupation of eastern Ukraine and annexation of
Crimea are much more expensive than expected. Now that Russia has
"bought" eastern Ukraine, it's stuck with it, and has to provide aid.
Russia has almost no spare industrial capacity, and badly needs
massive investment and new technologies that are not forthcoming.
Western sanctions have made it impossible for Russian companies to
borrow money, forcing them to drain their reserves. Capital is
flowing out of Russia as Russians with dollar-denominated accounts and
assets move them to other countries, fearing that their accounts might
be frozen.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin may have no choice but to impose
capital controls, which would prevent anyone's dollar reserves to move
out of Russia to foreign banks. But the people who would be hurt most
would be Russia's elite oligarch class who, up till now, have been
Putin allies. If Putin is forced to impose capital controls, it may
be a game changer in that he may lose the support of his biggest
allies.

The only good news was an announcement that the price of vodka will
decrease from $7 per liter to $6 per liter. This will be accomplished
by lowering taxes on vodka. Lowering taxes is not something that the
Russian government can afford, but it's thought that with cheap vodka
the people will be happier. Jamestown and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Qatar, Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, Muslim Brotherhood,
Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Palestinian Authority,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Crimea

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 9-Jan-15 World View -- Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Qatar may be turning against Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
• Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12

****
**** Qatar may be turning against Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
****


Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal

Last summer's Gaza war between Israel and Hamas tore open a gash
between Arab and Mideast countries, with Qatar, Turkey and Iran
strongly supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoot Hamas,
versus Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia opposing
Hamas, hence supporting Israel. The differences were expressed with
extreme vitriol, especially after Hamas was thoroughly defeated by
Israel in the war. But Saudi Arabia managed to convince Qatar to a
reconciliation prior to the big Arab summit meeting last month.

Hamas's defeat is only a small part of their problems. Hamas used to
have a headquarters office in Damascus, Syria. But in 2011 Syria's
genocidal president Bashar al-Assad started exterminating innocent
Sunni women and children, forcing a split between al-Assad and Hamas's
leader, Khaled Mashaal. After months of rumors, Mashaal and Hamas HQ
moved to Doha, Qatar, allowing Mashaal to direct the summer Gaza war
from afar.

Now, thanks to the reconciliation, there are reports that Qatar is
throwing Mashaal out of Doha. Hamas is denying the reports, but other
reports are saying that if Mashaal stays in Doha, then he has to agree
to keep a very low profile, and not do anything to embarrass Doha. A
Hamas official was quoted as saying, "Hamas was asked at least not to
engage in any high-profile political activities that may be
interpreted as Qatar still supporting the Muslim Brotherhood,
particularly after the Egyptian–Qatari reconciliation."

If Mashaal leaves Doha, then he has three choices: Ankara Turkey or
Tehran Iran or Khartoum Sudan, the capitals of the three countries
that still support Hamas. Iran is a particularly problematic choice,
because Hamas still strongly opposes al-Assad while Iran supports
al-Assad, and because Hamas is Sunni Muslim while Iran is Shia Muslim,
so they have little in common except their common hatred for Israel.

Current speculation is that Mashaal and Hamas headquarters are headed
for Ankara. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh)

****
**** Russia faces economic cliff on Monday, January 12
****

Russia is on a long-term holiday that started two weeks ago and ends
on Monday, January 12. At that time, the banks and the stock exchange
will reopen, and it's feared that both the ruble and the Moscow stock
exchange will fall sharply. Russia's economy is being hit hard by
multiple problems: Russia's main source of income has been deeply
slashed because oil prices have been collapsing. The inflation rate
has grown from 6.5% to 11.4% in a few months, with food prices growing
at 15.4%.

The invasion and occupation of eastern Ukraine and annexation of
Crimea are much more expensive than expected. Now that Russia has
"bought" eastern Ukraine, it's stuck with it, and has to provide aid.
Russia has almost no spare industrial capacity, and badly needs
massive investment and new technologies that are not forthcoming.
Western sanctions have made it impossible for Russian companies to
borrow money, forcing them to drain their reserves. Capital is
flowing out of Russia as Russians with dollar-denominated accounts and
assets move them to other countries, fearing that their accounts might
be frozen.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin may have no choice but to impose
capital controls, which would prevent anyone's dollar reserves to move
out of Russia to foreign banks. But the people who would be hurt most
would be Russia's elite oligarch class who, up till now, have been
Putin allies. If Putin is forced to impose capital controls, it may
be a game changer in that he may lose the support of his biggest
allies.

The only good news was an announcement that the price of vodka will
decrease from $7 per liter to $6 per liter. This will be accomplished
by lowering taxes on vodka. Lowering taxes is not something that the
Russian government can afford, but it's thought that with cheap vodka
the people will be happier. Jamestown and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Qatar, Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, Muslim Brotherhood,
Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Palestinian Authority,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Crimea

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Cheap vodka is the opiate for the masses.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Cheap vodka is the opiate for the masses.

You beat me to it.

I once saw a program on Ireland in the 1950's-60's era where a popular prime minister unexpectedly lost an election because the price of Irish Whiskey rose just before polling day.
Not that he deserves it, but cheap vodka will buy Putin some time.

*** 10-Jan-15 World View -- Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre
• Cameroon requests international help to fight Boko Haram
• Some random political and media notes

****
**** Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre
****


Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau (AFP)

After a coordinated three-day rampage on the town of Baga in northeast
Nigeria, as well 15-20 other nearby towns, up to 2000 resident
civilians have been killed. The towns are now "virtually nonexistent"
according to local officials:

<QUOTE>"These towns are just gone, burned down. The whole
area is covered in bodies."<END QUOTE>

This would make the massacre among the most deadly terror attacks in
history.

There's supposed to be a Multi-National Joint Task Force, a
French-sponsored alliance of Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad,
stationed in a army base near Baga. The base was supposed to provide
protection for Baga and the other nearby towns. But last Saturday,
there were only Nigerian soldiers in the army base, and Boko Haram
overran the base, as the Nigerian troops once again fled rather than
fight. The massacre in Baga began four days later.

Following the philosophy of better late than never, Nigerian ground
forces backed by air strikes are now fighting to reclaim Baga and the
military base.

In April 2013, Boko Haram abducted over 200 schoolgirls from a school
in Chibok. Those girls are still missing.

Nigeria is one of the biggest oil producers in the world. It's
thought that Boko Haram is trying to create a secessionist state in
northeast Nigeria. NBC News and Reuters

****
**** Cameroon requests international help to fight Boko Haram
****

President Paul Biya of Cameroon is appealing for international
military help to fight Boko Haram. According to Biya, Boko Haram has
gone beyond being a regional threat to being a global threat that has
attacked Mali, the Central African Republic and Somalia:

<QUOTE>"A global threat calls for a global response. Such
should be the response of the international community, including
the African Union and our regional organisations."<END QUOTE>

The appeal follows a threat from Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in
a youtube video posted on Monday:

<QUOTE>"Oh Paul Biya, if you don’t stop this, your evil plot,
you will taste what has befallen Nigeria ... Your troops cannot do
anything to us."<END QUOTE>

The "evil plot" is Biya's attempt to rid Cameroon of Boko Haram.
( "30-Dec-14 World View -- Cameroon's air force bombs Boko Haram positions, forcing retreat"
) Biya ordered air strikes after the terrorists began
crossing the border from Nigeria and attacked villages in Cameroon's
north. Nigerian Tribune and AFP

****
**** Some random political and media notes
****

• The media, even al-Jazeera, are providing nonstop coverage of
  the events in Paris this week, where less than a dozen people were
  killed, while ignoring the Nigeria massacre that occurred in the same
  time frame, where 2000 people may have been killed.
  
• As I wrote in "29-Dec-14 World View -- Do news organizations ignore jihadist attacks on Christians?"
  , there is a massive Muslim versus Muslim war
  growing in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia. The Paris attack
  is collateral damage from that war, and the number of similar attacks
  will grow as the war grows.
  
• As horrific as the Paris massacre was, it was not an existential
  threat to France. But the Boko Haram attack IS an existential threat
  to Nigeria, and the attacks by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
  (IS or ISIS or ISIL) ARE existential threats to the countries of the
  entire Mideast.
  
• Everyone's been bloviating about freedom of speech, but France has
  very strict, very irrational blasphemy laws: it's illegal to deny the
  Holocaust, and last year they made it illegal to deny that Turkey
  committed the Armenian genocide.
  
• Blasphemy is a crime in Ireland and the UK, just as it is in
  Pakistan. ( "20-Sep-12 World View -- France closes embassies after magazine publishes Mohammed satire"
  )
  
• After the 2012 Benghazi diplomatic compound attack, killing an
  American ambassador and other American officials, the Obama
  administration blamed the attack on an anti-Muslim video posted by
  Mark Basseley Youssef, and had Youssef arrested. The Obama
  administration has also targeted Fox News and conservative political
  organizations with criminal and IRS investigations.
  
• The Associated Press has a policy of not posting anything that
  offends Islam, but for years has posted an image of Jesus Christ in a
  vat of urine. On Wednesday, AP removed the Jesus in urine image out
  of embarrassment.

Washington Examiner and Daily Beast


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Baga, Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau,
Cameroon, Niger, Chad, Chibok, Paul Biya, Mali,
Paris, France, blasphemy, Ireland, UK,
Benghazi, Mark Basseley Youssef, Associated Press

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*** 11-Jan-15 World View -- France officials criticized for not stopping Charlie Hebdo terror attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France officials criticized for not stopping Charlie Hebdo terror attack
• Al-Qaeda in Yemen claims to have directed Paris Charlie Hebdo attack
• 'Anonymous' declares war on terrorist web sites

****
**** France officials criticized for not stopping Charlie Hebdo terror attack
****


Massive rally in support of Charlie Hebdo victims in Marseille France on Saturday (AFP)

Criticism is mounting against French officials for not doing more to
prevent Wednesday's terrorist attack by means of closer surveillance
of the two brothers who carried out the attack. One of them, Cherif
Kouachi, had been convicted on terrorism charges in 2008, while the
other, Said Kouachi had traveled to Yemen in 2011 and was believed
while there to have been trained in jihadist skills by al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Both were on the U.S. no-fly list. When
Said returned from Yemen in 2012, both Kouachi brothers were placed
under close surveillance, but after a while the surveillance was
reduced.

Some problems have no solution. You can prove mathematically that
there's no solution to the problem of squaring the circle. There's
no mathematical proof in this case, but there's still no solution
to the problem of preventing "lone wolf" terrorist attacks.

Thousands of young men from around the world have gone to Syria to
learn terrorist skills from training by the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), almost 1,000 of them from France
alone. Many, like the Kouachi brothers, return to their home
countries to prepare terrorist attacks. If the Kouachi brothers and
all others like them were to be kept under constant surveillance, it
would take a virtual army of surveillors, and even then many would be
missed.

It's believed that there are thousands of people across Europe on
government surveillance lists. These lists include not only returning
jihadists, but people suspected of financial crimes, sex crimes and
other serious offenses. Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Al-Qaeda in Yemen claims to have directed Paris Charlie Hebdo attack
****

A senior AQAP official, Harith al Nadhari, is claiming that "The
operation was directed by the leadership of al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP)." He does not claim credit for the attack, but said
that France in particularly was targeted because of the cartoons
portraying Mohammed.

As I've been reporting
repeatedly,
there is no Muslim war against the West. Even in the last week, when
a score of people in Paris were killed, thousands were killed in Boko Haram massacres in Nigeria
,
while hundreds more were killed in Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia and
other countries. This is a massive and growing war of Muslims against
Muslims that is both ethnic (tribe against tribe) and sectarian (Sunni
and Shia against each other).

AQAP is embroiled in its own war, far from Paris. The Sunni jihadists
in AQAP in Yemen are under attack by Shia Houthi militias thought to
be supported by Iran. The Houthis have made substantial gains in the
last six months, and are threatening the gains that AQAP made before
that.

With so much on their plate in Yemen, one might ask why AQAP would
even be interested in what's going on in Paris. Apparently what's
going on is a competition between al-Qaeda and ISIS. If there are
thousands of young men going to Syria to train with ISIS, those are
thousands of young men who might instead have gone to Yemen to train
with AQAP, which is what Said Kouachi did in 2012, before ISIS
rise to prominence.

AQAP is fully involved with the war in Yemen, while ISIS is fully
involved with the war in Syria and Iraq. Every war has both a
military component and a public relations component, and the attack on
Paris was part of AQAP's public relations component.

It wasn't long ago that al-Qaeda was Numero Uno in the terror
business, but they've been eclipsed in the last year by ISIS. Maybe
AQAP directed the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, maybe not. But
claiming to have done so is a way of trying to return to prominence.
Thus, the Paris attack is collateral damage in the real growing war
between Muslims and Muslims, and we can expect more of the same.
Guardian (London) and Fox News

****
**** 'Anonymous' declares war on terrorist web sites
****

Cyber-terrorist group Anonymous, which has attacked many government,
military and commercial web sites in the paste, is now naming
terrorist web sites as their next target. According to a statement:

<QUOTE>"Message to the enemy of the freedom of speech.

January 7, 2015, freedom of speech has suffered an inhuman
assault. Terrorists broke into the premises of the "Charlie Hebdo"
newspaper and shot in cold blood several satirical cartoon
artists, journalists and two policemen. The killers are still at
large. Disgusted and also shocked, we cannot fall to our
knees. It is our responsibility to react."<END QUOTE>

The statement was followed by a YouTube video directly confronting
Al-Qaeda and ISIS on the Paris massacre. Russia Today and Pastebin and
YouTube

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Charlie Hebdo, Cherif Kouachi, Said Kouachi,
Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Harith al Nadhari,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Syria, Pakistan, Somalia,
Houthis, Anonymous

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