Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> Question for John.

> What do you make of this sort of thing going down? Heavy metal
> concerts in the Islamic world.

> http://www.meaning.org/hmi_book.html
> http://www.theatlantic.com/entertain...-islam/259680/

> IMHO, this looks like a 2T rebellion against societal
> norms.

With so much unrest going on across the Muslim world, and with
different countries on different generational timelines, it's hard to
sort out all the different motivations.

Having said that, you're right -- those articles do sound very
sixties-ish -- using music that your parents don't approve of as a way
of protesting against your parents' politics.

I get the impression from the two articles that a lot of this music is
originating from Iraq and Iran -- two countries in a generatioinal
Awakening era, like America in the 1960s. So that fits with the
theory that this use of heavy metal music is a generational
counter-culture protest. Other countries, like Egypt and UAE, are
mentioned, but they seem to be following the trend that originated in
Iraq and Iran.

So that's just a guess, but it does seem to make sense at
first blush.

This both sad and scary.

Anthropologist Seeks the Roots of Terrorism

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...medium=twitter

… "What sociological and cultural factors are behind the Paris attacks?
Unlike the United States, where immigrants achieve average socioeconomic status and education within a generation, in Europe even after three generations, depending on the country, they’re 5–19 times more likely to be poor or less educated. France has about 7.5% Muslims and [they make] up to 60–75% of the prison population. It’s a very similar situation to black youth in the United States.

The difference is here’s an ideology that appeals to them, it’s something that’s very attractive to more people than you might think. In France, a poll by [ICM Research] showed that 27% of young French people, not just Muslims, between 18 and 24 had a favourable attitude toward the Islamic State. The jihad is the only systemic cultural ideology that’s effective, that’s growing, that’s attractive, that's glorious—that basically says to these young people, “Look, you're on the outs, nobody cares about you, but look what we can do. We can change the world.””…

…”It depends on the poll, but 7–14% of Muslims worldwide supported the Al Qaeda strike against the United States. If something like that support the Islamic State, that’s a lot of people, [over 100] million.”…

Originally Posted by radind

> This both sad and scary.
> http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...medium=twitter

I have a fairly different view of this whole thing. There are
disaffected youth in the U.S., but they aren't Muslims. They're more
likely to be blacks and Hispanics. The dynamics are different.
Instead of ISIS, you have Mexican drug cartels and drive-by shootings.

When the London 7/7/2005 subway bombings occurred, I ran across some
research on suicide bombers over a 20-year period.

** Robert Pape's 'Dying to Win' sheds light on suicide bombers.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...050718pape.htm

It turns out that, at the time, suicide bombers overwhelmingly came
from two countries, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. And it turns out that
these two countries are deep into a Fifth Turning. In fact, it's from
these findings that I developed the theory behind Fifth Turnings.

So the hypothesis, requiring a lot more research, is this: The deeper
a society goes into a 4T, and then into a 5T, the more likely it is
that disaffected youth will become socially violent, until finally
something triggers a generational crisis war.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I have a fairly different view of this whole thing. There are
disaffected youth in the U.S., but they aren't Muslims. They're more
likely to be blacks and Hispanics. The dynamics are different.
Instead of ISIS, you have Mexican drug cartels and drive-by shootings.

When the London 7/7/2005 subway bombings occurred, I ran across some
research on suicide bombers over a 20-year period.

** Robert Pape's 'Dying to Win' sheds light on suicide bombers.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...050718pape.htm

It turns out that, at the time, suicide bombers overwhelmingly came
from two countries, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. And it turns out that
these two countries are deep into a Fifth Turning. In fact, it's from
these findings that I developed the theory behind Fifth Turnings.

So the hypothesis, requiring a lot more research, is this: The deeper
a society goes into a 4T, and then into a 5T, the more likely it is
that disaffected youth will become socially violent, until finally
something triggers a generational crisis war.

The recent terror attacks seem to have a strong basis in ideolgy. I see the drug cartels as more economic than ideology( that is why I would like the drugs legalized to put the cartels out of business).

The effects of ideology could become more widespread if we don't somehow manage to integrate the outsiders into society.

Global terrorist attacks.

Attempts to predict terrorist attacks hit limits


http://www.nature.com/news/attempts-...TWT_NatureNews
…”At the University of Maryland in College Park, Erin Miller oversees an effort to record terrorist events and make the data available to researchers. The group has settled on a definition of terrorism: “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation”. The resulting Global Terrorism Database (GTD) provides insights into how terrorism has changed over the past few decades”…

…”Overall, it shows that the number of reported events — from targeted assassinations to hijackings and suicide bombings — has sharply increased globally since the turn of the millennium, mostly driven by attacks in the Middle East, Africa and south Asia. In the past ten years, half of all global terrorist attacks, and 60% of all fatalities, occurred in just three countries — Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. By contrast, after the attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, Europe and North America suffered relatively few successful attacks.”…

Originally Posted by radind

> The recent terror attacks seem to have a strong basis in
> ideolgy. I see the drug cartels as more economic than ideology(
> that is why I would like the drugs legalized to put the cartels
> out of business).

> The effects of ideology could become more widespread if we don't
> somehow manage to integrate the outsiders into society.

I really fail to see the difference between slaughtering people to
gain publicity for your drug cartel versus slaughtering people to gain
publicity for your Islamist militia, but at any rate, it doesn't make
any difference. Also, economic issues are also a motivation for many
suicide bombers.

What I'm saying is that, for whatever reason, disaffected youth turn
to social violence increasingly as a society goes deeper into a 4T-5T,
until something triggers a crisis war. There might be any number of
excuses or justifications, but it doesn't matter if the suicide bomber
does it to get money for his family, or if he does it to get 72
virgins. The net result is the same.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I really fail to see the difference between slaughtering people to
gain publicity for your drug cartel versus slaughtering people to gain
publicity for your Islamist militia, but at any rate, it doesn't make
any difference. Also, economic issues are also a motivation for many
suicide bombers.

What I'm saying is that, for whatever reason, disaffected youth turn
to social violence increasingly as a society goes deeper into a 4T-5T,
until something triggers a crisis war. There might be any number of
excuses or justifications, but it doesn't matter if the suicide bomber
does it to get money for his family, or if he does it to get 72
virgins. The net result is the same.

If I am correct, then we know how to put the drug cartels out of business( make their product legal). If people are willing to die for an idea, then so far we have not found a good way to end this.

Maybe we just have to wait until the crisis war starts.

See, I'm way too cynical and scornful to believe that anyone wants to
die for an idea. It might be for the 72 virgins, or for money for
their families, or for glory. Or it might be someone who's suicidal
anyway, and figures he might as well do some good if he's going to
kill himself. Or he may kill himself to get even with his ex-wife or
his parents. Or maybe he's old or sick or depressed, and justs wants
out. But just for an idea? I personally don't think so.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

See, I'm way too cynical and scornful to believe that anyone wants to
die for an idea. It might be for the 72 virgins, or for money for
their families, or for glory. Or it might be someone who's suicidal
anyway, and figures he might as well do some good if he's going to
kill himself. Or he may kill himself to get even with his ex-wife or
his parents. Or maybe he's old or sick or depressed, and justs wants
out. But just for an idea? I personally don't think so.

I see the situation differently than you.

..."The jihad is the only systemic cultural ideology that’s effective, that’s growing, that’s attractive, that's glorious—that basically says to these young people, “Look, you're on the outs, nobody cares about you, but look what we can do. We can change the world.”...

But , that is why we come here to discuss key issues.

Originally Posted by radind

> I see the situation differently than you.
> But, that is why we come here to discuss key issues.

> "The jihad is the only systemic cultural ideology that’s
> effective, that’s growing, that’s attractive, that's glorious—that
> basically says to these young people, “Look, you're on the outs,
> nobody cares about you, but look what we can do. We can change the
> world.”...

How does that differ from what I said?

Take a look at any cult leader, any gang leader, any drug cartel
leader, and they say exactly the same thing as the above quote.
There's nothing unique about jihad. It's just another ordinary
scam to create cannon fodder.

Take a look at the following page:

** How to be a successful cult leader
** http://www.reallyweirdstuff.com/howt...cultleader.htm

This describes the techniques used by cult leaders, and they're no
different that the techniques used by jihadists. As I said, jihad is
nothing but just another scam to create cannon fodder.

*** 21-Jan-15 World View -- U.S. prepares Yemen evacuation as Houthis apparently complete coup

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. prepares Yemen evacuation as Houthis apparently complete coup
• Obama calls for Congressional approval of military action

****
**** U.S. prepares Yemen evacuation as Houthis apparently complete coup
****


Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi giving a televised State of the Yemen speech on Tuesday

The U.S. military on Monday night has moved two amphibious ships, the
USS Iwo Jima and USS Fort McHenry, from the Gulf of Aden to the
southern Red Sea, in preparation to evacuate the U.S. embassy in
Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, if it becomes necessary.

Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militants stormed the presidential palace
in Sanaa, and are reported to be approaching the private residence of
president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, where he's thought to be. The Prime
Minister's resident is also under attack. One government minister
called the actions "the completion of a coup."

Shortly afterwards, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, the head of the al-Houthis
went on nationwide television and gave a kind of rambling State of the
Yemen address, which was full of threats and accusations:

• Al-Houthi appeared to threaten Sunni warlords and tribes
  who he said have been fighting alongside Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
  Peninsula (AQAP).
  
• He also accused president Hadi of aiding AQAP, and of being a tool
  of foreign powers, including the United States.
  
• He accused Hadi of accused Hadi of violating last year's
  power-sharing agreement. However, he failed to mention his own
  commitment in that agreement, that Houthi troops would be withdrawn
  from Sanaa, which he has failed to keep.
  
• He accused Hadi's son of corruption, and of stealing
  "billions."

As we reported yesterday,
analysts
were hoping that the al-Houthis would stop short of taking complete
control of Yemen's government, because of the consequences that would
result. But after today's events, including the harsh personal
criticisms of Hadi, it appears very likely that the existing
government is about to collapse. The al-Houthis are already in de
facto control, and today's events seem close to formalizing that
control. CS Monitor and AP

****
**** Obama calls for Congressional approval of military action
****

Last year in June, President Obama announced that the U.S. would send
300 American advisors to train, advise and support the Iraqi
securities forces fighting the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS or ISIL). Since then, this number has been increased, one
step at at time, from 300 to 800 to 1500 to 3100. He said that this
was "not mission creep." He insisted that the "U.S. will not be
putting boots on the ground." The goal is "to degrade and ultimately
destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL." ( "8-Nov-14 World View -- Obama sharply escalates U.S. involvement in Iraq war"
) All of this was in addition
to air force strikes against ISIS.

In Tuesday's State of the Union address, Obama said:

<QUOTE>"In Iraq and Syria, American leadership – including
our military power – is stopping ISIL’s advance. Instead of
getting dragged into another ground war in the Middle East, we are
leading a broad coalition, including Arab nations, to degrade and
ultimately destroy this terrorist group. We’re also supporting a
moderate opposition in Syria that can help us in this effort, and
assisting people everywhere who stand up to the bankrupt ideology
of violent extremism. This effort will take time. It will
require focus. But we will succeed. And tonight, I call on this
Congress to show the world that we are united in this mission by
passing a resolution to authorize the use of force against
ISIL. We need that authority."<END QUOTE>

I thought that air strikes against ISIL were already "the use of
force." So it's not clear whether this is a further escalation, or
whether it's simply requesting the legal authority to take the
military action that's already taking place. (The phrase "We need
that authority" was added to the prepared text.)

I have not yet heard any military analyst claim that Obama's strategy
will succeed in its goal "to degrade and destroy ISIS." Every analyst
I've heard says that American "boots on the ground" will be required.

In fact, as I've been reporting repeated in the last few weeks, there
is a growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, South Asia and
North Africa, with tens of thousands of Muslims slaughtered every
year. Generational Dynamics predicts this will spiral into a full
scale regional war, and after that into a world war.

In the speech, Obama did not brag about Afghanistan, except to say,
"Instead of Americans patrolling the valleys of Afghanistan, we’ve
trained their security forces, who’ve now taken the lead." Obama was
burned after withdrawing from Iraq without leaving a residual force,
and today it's far from clear how the withdrawal from Afghanistan will
fare. Washington Post and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Syria, Iraq

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

How does that differ from what I said?

Take a look at any cult leader, any gang leader, any drug cartel
leader, and they say exactly the same thing as the above quote.
There's nothing unique about jihad. It's just another ordinary
scam to create cannon fodder.

Take a look at the following page:

** How to be a successful cult leader
** http://www.reallyweirdstuff.com/howt...cultleader.htm

This describes the techniques used by cult leaders, and they're no
different that the techniques used by jihadists. As I said, jihad is
nothing but just another scam to create cannon fodder.

I don't see many others cutting off heads and going on suicide missions.

Originally Posted by radind

> I don't see many others cutting off heads and going on suicide
> missions.

This proves my point. If you want to kill someone, just shoot him.
So you have to ask yourself: What's the purpose of these beheadings?

It's a pure publicity stunt. It's like a car salesman sponsoring the
July 4 fireworks in order to sell more cars. Instead of just killing
someone, you make a spectacular show out of it with a public
beheading, accompanied by a sales pitch as if it were a car
commercial, and then you put the car commercial onto YouTube, and get
every news channel in the world to show it.

ISIS isn't selling cars. What are they selling? They're selling
jihad. The target audience is depressed, disaffected young men around
the world, who are to come to Syria to be used as cannon fodder
in ISIS's war, which is not against the West, but is against
other Muslims.

And it's obviously working:

> "The jihad is the only systemic cultural ideology that’s
> effective, that’s growing, that’s attractive, that's glorious—that
> basically says to these young people, “Look, you're on the outs,
> nobody cares about you, but look what we can do. We can change the
> world.”...

It's a fantastic publicity stunt! You'd almost think that Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi was the Son of God, rather than just a cheap sociopathic
salesman recruiting young men as cannon fodder so that ISIS can
massacre and slaughter hundreds of thousands of additional Muslims.

Beheadings and suicide bombings are just forms of social violence,
along with drive-by shootings and drug wars. The hypothesis is that
as a country goes deeper into a 4T-5T then all forms of social
violence will increase, until a crisis war is triggered.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This proves my point. If you want to kill someone, just shoot him.
So you have to ask yourself: What's the purpose of these beheadings?

It's a pure publicity stunt. It's like a car salesman sponsoring the
July 4 fireworks in order to sell more cars. Instead of just killing
someone, you make a spectacular show out of it with a public
beheading, accompanied by a sales pitch as if it were a car
commercial, and then you put the car commercial onto YouTube, and get
every news channel in the world to show it.

ISIS isn't selling cars. What are they selling? They're selling
jihad. The target audience is depressed, disaffected young men around
the world, who are to come to Syria to be used as cannon fodder
in ISIS's war, which is not against the West, but is against
other Muslims.

And it's obviously working:



It's a fantastic publicity stunt! You'd almost think that Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi was the Son of God, rather than just a cheap sociopathic
salesman recruiting young men as cannon fodder so that ISIS can
massacre and slaughter hundreds of thousands of additional Muslims.

Beheadings and suicide bombings are just forms of social violence,
along with drive-by shootings and drug wars. The hypothesis is that
as a country goes deeper into a 4T-5T then all forms of social
violence will increase, until a crisis war is triggered.

What it proves is that we have a different point of view.
There is a big show and there some 'buyers' who carry out suicide attacks. I see that as different from buying a car.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This proves my point. If you want to kill someone, just shoot him.
So you have to ask yourself: What's the purpose of these beheadings?

It's a pure publicity stunt. It's like a car salesman sponsoring the
July 4 fireworks in order to sell more cars. Instead of just killing
someone, you make a spectacular show out of it with a public
beheading, accompanied by a sales pitch as if it were a car
commercial, and then you put the car commercial onto YouTube, and get
every news channel in the world to show it.

ISIS isn't selling cars. What are they selling? They're selling
jihad. The target audience is depressed, disaffected young men around
the world, who are to come to Syria to be used as cannon fodder
in ISIS's war, which is not against the West, but is against
other Muslims.

And it's obviously working:



It's a fantastic publicity stunt! You'd almost think that Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi was the Son of God, rather than just a cheap sociopathic
salesman recruiting young men as cannon fodder so that ISIS can
massacre and slaughter hundreds of thousands of additional Muslims.

Beheadings and suicide bombings are just forms of social violence,
along with drive-by shootings and drug wars. The hypothesis is that
as a country goes deeper into a 4T-5T then all forms of social
violence will increase, until a crisis war is triggered.

You know that the KGB and its successors are into this sort of showmanship. While I doubt these are direct SVR/GRU ops, it is not unthinkable that via a non traceable "Chechen" black hand, SVR/GRU are helping influence the direction.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

You know that the KGB and its successors are into this sort of showmanship. While I doubt these are direct SVR/GRU ops, it is not unthinkable that via a non traceable "Chechen" black hand, SVR/GRU are helping influence the direction.

I did stumble on a ISIS beheading picture on the net a couple weeks ago in which the caption said that the victims were Russian spies discovered within their ranks.

*** 22-Jan-15 World View -- Yemen's president accepts Houthi demands, possibly resolving crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Leader of Germany's anti-Muslim Pegida movement resigns over Hitler photo
• Yemen's president accepts Houthi demands, possibly resolving crisis

****
**** Leader of Germany's anti-Muslim Pegida movement resigns over Hitler photo
****


German newspapers carrying the photo of Pegida leader Lutz Bachmann posing as Hitler (BBC)

Officials in the anti-Islam Pegida movement ("Patriotische Europäer
gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes," or "Patriotic Europeans
Against the Islamization of the West") forced the group's leader Lutz
Bachmann to resign on Wednesday, after it emerged that he had posted a
picture of himself posing as Hitler on his Facebook page two years
ago. His troubles increased on reports that he had called refugees
"animals" and "scumbags."

Bachmann said that the Hitler photo was a joke, and apologized for the
inappropriate remarks about refugees. However, the incident has been
a huge embarrassment to Pegida, which bills itself as a moderate
political movement, and rejects characterizations as "neo-Nazi." One
German official said, "Anyone in politics who poses as Hitler is
either a total idiot or a Nazi."

Pegida's "anti-Islamization" protests have been growing larger and
larger each week since they began on Monday. However, anti-Pegida
protests have grown larger than the Pegida protests, especially since
the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris. In Leipzig on Wednesday, about
7,000 Pegida demonstrators were blocked by 20,000 counter-protesters,
while the police worked to keep the two groups apart. Deutsche-Welle and BBC

****
**** Yemen's president accepts Houthi demands, possibly resolving crisis
****


Members of the Yemeni presidential guards, wearing civilian clothes, leave the presidential palace with their belongings in Sanaa on Wednesday, after being driven off by Houthi militias (Reuters)

Yemen's president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, surrounded by Houthi
militias after his own presidential guard had been defeated, agreed to
all of the demands of the leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi of the Shia
Muslim group backed by Iran. The Houthis will be given positions
of power in all state institutions, and will not be required to
withdraw their forces from the capital city Sanaa, as they
had committed previously in an September agreement.

Hadi had no choice but to accede to this agreement, but it remains to
be seen whether it will be acceptable to the Sunni tribes south and
east of Sanaa. Concerns have been increasing that a Houthi coup would
unite the moderate Sunni tribes with the terrorists in al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), leading to a sectarian war. Indeed, a
statement on Wednesday from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of
mostly Sunni Arab nations warned that they "would take all measures
necessary to protect their security, stability and vital interests in
Yemen." It's hoped that Wednesday's agreement will head off a larger
conflict. Others point out that the Houthis are in power, and may not
be satisfied by stopping with the gains they've already made.
AFP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Cologne, Dresden, PEGIDA,
Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes,
Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West,
Lutz Bachman, Hitler, Leipzig,
Yemen, Sanaa, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP

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*** 23-Jan-15 World View -- Yemen government resigns, creating power vacuum for AQAP to fill

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen government resigns, creating power vacuum for AQAP to fill
• Southern Yemen leaders call for secession from North Yemen
• Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah dies

****
**** Yemen government resigns, creating power vacuum for AQAP to fill
****


A tank sits near the presidential palace in Sanaa Yemen on Thursday (CNN)

The agreement reached on Wednesday between Yemen's Sunni president
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi and the Shia leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi or
the insurgent Houthi militias collapsed within 24 hours after it was
agreed. It was not so much an agreement between equal partners,
anyway. It was much more a set of demands forced on Hadi by the
Houthis. On Thursday morning, al-Houthi refused to remove his troops
from Sanaa, and Hadi resigned, taking his cabinet with him.

Most commentators agree that what the Houthis wanted was for a
weakened Hadi to remain as president, where he could be controlled by
the Houthis. The Houthis apparently do not want to take complete
control of the government, and so Hadi's resignation presents them
with a problem. The Houthis announced that they are appointing a
military council to select a successor, but the choice is going to be
tricky.

Hadi was the deputy of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and when
Saleh was forced out by a coup in 2012, Hadi was the "safe choice" to
replace him, someone that everyone could live with. Thus, Hadi's
resignation now, along with his cabinet, creates a power vacuum that
will be very hard to fill.

For Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the chaos in the capital
city Sanaa is a golden opportunity. AQAP has been partially held in
check by US drone strikes coordinated with the Hadi government, but
now AQAP may have nothing to hold them back. AQAP is going to tap
into the discontent of all the Sunni warlords and Sunni tribes,
pointing to the Iran-backed Shia militias in power and the overthrow
of the Sunni president, who was supported by Saudi Arabia. The
nightmare scenario is a full-scale sectarian war between the Sunnis
and Shias. Reuters and BBC

****
**** Southern Yemen leaders call for secession from North Yemen
****

The resignation of the government of Yemen's president
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was enough to trigger an announcement by
Yemen's southern separatist movements to call for secession.
North and South Yemen were united in 1990, and this is a call
to split Yemen in two again.

Police and other security officials in southern Yemen say they are no
longer taking orders from Sanaa. Houthi militants have already seized
and taken control of almost all state-run media announcements, and
during the televised announcement by southern leaders to break with
Sanaa, Houthi officials cut off the live televised feed, further
angering people in the south. Middle East Eye and APA (Anadolu Agency - Baku)

****
**** Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah dies
****

Saudi Arabia's 90-year-old king Abdullah bin Abdulaziz died on
Thursday. His younger brother, 79-year-old crown prince Salman bin
Abdulaziz will succeed Abdullah.

There are concerns that Saudi Arabia is now going to join the unrest
that's been spreading throughout the Mideast in the last four years.
However, with Abdullah ailing in recent months, Salman has been taking
on most of Abdullah's responsibilities, and so it's hoped that things
will be calm for the time being. BBC and
CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Sanaa, Houthis,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Saudi Arabia, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Salman bin Abdulaziz

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*** 24-Jan-15 World View -- Death of Saudi's King Abdullah raises concerns about policy changes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Death of Saudi's King Abdullah raises concerns about policy changes
• Saudi Arabia trapped in a corner over Syria policy
• More on the political realignment of the Mideast following the Gaza war

****
**** Death of Saudi's King Abdullah raises concerns about policy changes
****


The four Arab capitals claimed last year by Iran -- Beirut (Top L), Sanaa (Top R), Baghdad (Bottom L), Damascus (Bottom R) (AlWeeam)

The death on Thursday of Saudi Arabia's 90-year-old King Abdullah bin
Abdulaziz al Saud and the subsequent appointment of his younger
half-brother, 79-year-old Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, is raising a
number of questions about whether Saudi policies are going to change
under the new leadership. The consensus is that the succession was
carefully planned in advance to preserve stability and continuity, but
still, some concerns have been raised. Most of the media coverage has
been about women's rights, but there are other issues of greater
geopolitical significance.

First, Yemen is along Saudi Arabia's southern border and as we've been reporting,
the government
has collapsed, and no one knows who's running the country today, let
alone who will be running the country next week. The Iran-backed Shia
Houthis have taken over most of the government buildings in the
capital city Sanaa, and may thus be considered the de facto
government, but the Houthis have made it clear that they want to run
the government without actually being officially in charge. One of
the reasons for this gracious reluctance is that the Saudis have made
it clear that they won't tolerate a Shia government in Yemen. In the
meantime, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is
headquartered in Yemen, is taking advantage of the chaos in Sanaa to
link up the other Sunni tribes in preparation for a sectarian war,
while the tribes in the far south of Yemen are declaring their
intention of seceding.

Next, Iran is Saudi Arabia's bitter enemy, and Iran is gaining
influence throughout the Mideast, at Saudi expense. In fact, last
year Iran bragged that Sanaa is fourth Arab capital in Iran's grasp,
joining "the three Arab
capitals who are already a subsidiary of the Iranian Islamic
revolution," and part of "the greater jihad." The other referenced
Arab capitals are Beirut Lebanon, Baghdad Iraq, and Damascus Syria.
Iran is also supporting Shia activists in eastern Saudi Arabia and in
Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has urged both Israel and the U.S. to go
through with much-discussed plans to take out Iran's nuclear
facilities with military strikes.

The meteoric rise of Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL) is obviously of concern to the Saudis, as it is of concern to
everyone in the Mideast. It's widely believed in the West that some
tribal elements in Saudi Arabia are providing funds and support to
ISIS, with the intention of eventually overthrowing the al-Saud
government, replacing it with an ISIS or Wahhabi government.

An interesting sidebar is that the Saudis have discussed building a
600-mile barrier along its northern border, to provide protection from
ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and another fence along its southern border,
to provide protection from the Houthis in Yemen. Since the fall of
the Berlin Wall 25 years ago, we've seen fences built along the
southern border of the U.S., around all the borders of Israel, and
along the border between Greece and Turkey. These would be two new
fences.

Oil policy could play a big part in the decision making of the new
King. Oil prices have fallen 60% since June of last year, mainly
thanks to fracking in the United States, and the Saudis are being
pressured by some other oil-producing countries to reduce oil output,
to boost oil prices. Immediately after the death of Abdullah, the
Saudis reassured the world that there would be no reduction in oil
output. Oil prices increased briefly, but soon decreased again.
BBC
and Reuters and
Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Saudi Arabia trapped in a corner over Syria policy
****

Like many Arab Sunnis, the Saudis are appalled that Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad has been conducting virtual genocide against his own
people. Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad has flattened
entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed
children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed
dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel
bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition,
he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and
beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial
strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with
encouragement and support from Russia and Iran.

The Saudis blame the rise of ISIS on al-Assad's actions (as do I).
The Saudis are furious that the U.S. did nothing to stop al-Assad's
genocidal attacks on Sunni Arabs in Syria, and are particularly
contemptuous of President Obama's "red line" flip-flop, allowing
al-Assad to use chemical weapons on his own people with impunity.

In a recent interview, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud likened
ISIS to the Mafia, saying that they are "more criminal than
they are religious." His own anecdotal evidence suggested to him that
the group's members were more concerned with "robbing" and "looting,"
with many only joining the organization for the money.

This is potentially an explosive situation, because it's not clear how
long the Salafist factions in Saudi Arabia will continue to tolerate
al-Assad's genocidal actions. Whether the West likes it or not, the
new Saudi leadership may decide it has no choice but to take its own
action against al-Assad. CNBC and Deutsche-Welle

****
**** More on the political realignment of the Mideast following the Gaza war
****

As I've written several times last year, there has been a major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
, bringing Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the
Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey
plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split was extremely vitriolic,
especially between the Saudis and Qataris, and although the
differences were papered over late last year, there's little doubt
that the feelings are as strong as ever. And the mediator who got
everyone to agree to paper over the differences was none other than
Saudi King Abdullah, who has now passed away.

This is a deep, simmering issue in the Arab world, and the new King of
Saudi Arabia is going to be at the center of it. All the Arab states
have as a policy the destruction of "the Zionist entity," at least at
the lip service level. But there are plenty of open questions. When
something happens that forces both the Saudis and Qataris to choose
between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, will they both choose the
same side or different sides? Once again, this is a potentially
explosive situation that only time can resolve.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iran, Iraq,
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Houthis,
Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Qatar

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*** 25-Jan-15 World View -- Measles outbreak being blamed on the 'anti-vaccine movement'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Measles outbreak being blamed on the 'anti-vaccine movement'
• Russians re-invade Ukraine, targeting Mariupol port city
• Yemen appears to be further destabilizing after president Hadi's resignation
• U.S. policy in Yemen affected by Houthi takeover

****
**** Measles outbreak being blamed on the 'anti-vaccine movement'
****


Visitors ride Dumbo the Flying Elephant at Disneyland in Anaheim on Thursday (AP)

Measles was eliminated in the United States in 2000, but 71 new cases
of measles have been reported in the last month. The number is
expected to climb. Almost all of the measles patients had not
received measles vaccinations, or had had only one of the two required
vaccine shots.

62 of the cases were in California, with the rest in Utah, Washington,
Colorado, Oregon, Arizona and Mexico. Almost all the patients had
visited Disney theme parks in Anaheim around Christmas, or had contact
with someone who had visited Disneyland.

The resurgence in measles is being blamed on the anti-vaccine movement
-- people who are refusing to allow their children to be vaccinated.
Many of them have refused vaccinations because they still believe
now-discredited research linking the measles vaccine to autism.

In California, most of the measles cases are occurring in certain
pockets, in places where there is a community reluctance to vaccinate.

The measles vaccine first became available in 1963, and had eliminated
measles in the United States by 2000. But that announcement caused
many parents to decide that it was no longer necessary to vaccinate
their children, and now measles is reappearing. However, starting
last year, the number of parents refusing to vaccinate their children
declined slightly, and is expected to decline further this year.
Mercury News (San Jose) and SF Gate (San Francisco) and LA Times

****
**** Russians re-invade Ukraine, targeting Mariupol port city
****

In a significant escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, ethnic
Russians in east Ukraine, backed by heavy weapons and possibly
thousands of soldiers from Russia, are apparently launching an attack
on the port city of Mariupol. Mariupol is a strategic objective that
would give the Russians access to the Sea of Azov, and would provide
much of what's needed to secure a land bridge between Russia and
Crimea. Russia invaded, occupied and annexed Ukraine's Crimean
peninsula a year ago, and has had to bear enormous expenses supplying
troops and civilians in Crimea by sea. Conquest of additional
Ukrainian territory to provide a land connection between Russia and
Crimean would result in considerable cost reductions. The attack
comes just one day after the east Ukrainian Russians rejected a
ceasefire agreement reached last September, when an east Ukrainian
leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, announced, "We have started an
offensive on Mariupol." On Saturday, Zakharchenko said that the
Mariupol offensive would be "the best possible monument to all our
dead."

Russia's government claims that it's had nothing to do with the new
offensive, but an AP reporter saw convoys of pristine heavy weapons
arriving last week, apparently in preparation for this attack.

Apparently we're now going to have to deal with another period of
Russian government statements in clear contradiction to reported
facts, and so it's a good idea to recall what happened last year.
Russia claimed they weren't invading Crimea, just as Russian troops
were invading Crimea. Russia claimed that they wouldn't annex Crimea,
just before they annexed Crimea, a clear violation of international
law. Russia claimed that there were no Russian troops in east Ukraine
at a time when Russian troops were entering east Ukraine. On
September 5, Russia signed an international peace agreement (the
"Minsk protocols") in which they committed to a political compromise
in east Ukraine, and then repeatedly violated their own agreement.
Basically, anything that comes from Russian state media or Russia's
government should be considered to be a lie. Washington Post and BBC and AP

****
**** Yemen appears to be further destabilizing after president Hadi's resignation
****

The coup by the Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militias, taking control of
the ministerial government functions in Sanaa, the capital city of
Yemen, followed by the resignation Yemen's Sunni president Abdu Rabu
Mansour Hadi, appear to have sparked several groups into action on
Saturday, further destabilizing the country:

• 10,000-20,000 people marched from Sanaa University, through
  the streets of Sanaa, to Hadi's home and back, chanting, "Down, down
  with the Houthis' rule," and demanding that Hadi's resignation be
  rejected. Women and children joined young men on the streets, waving
  signs that called for "a real government" and burning portraits of the
  Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi.
  
• At least nine people were killed and dozens wounded in clashes
  between Houthi fighters and Sunni tribesmen in Dar Al-Najd, a village
  in central Yemen, after Houthi militias were accused of abducting a
  journalist. History has shown that even if the Houthis can hold on to
  the central government in Sanaa, they will be unable to use force to
  control the tribes in the harsh mountain regions.
  
• Secessionist militias from Yemen's Southern Movement blocked roads
  in South Yemen and continued to declare independence from North
  Yemen.

The Yemeni parliament is scheduled to meet on Sunday to discuss Hadi's
resignation, which has not yet been accepted, or to appoint a
successor. Al Jazeera and World Bulletin (Turkey) and Gulf News and AFP

****
**** U.S. policy in Yemen affected by Houthi takeover
****

For years, the U.S. has been conducting counter-terrorism operations,
including drone strikes, targeting Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP), with the cooperation of Hadi, who just resigned, and his
predecessor, the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted
by Hadi in 2011.

On Friday, the Washington Post reported that the U.S. has been forced
to suspend counter-terrorism operations in Yemen, because of the
government takeover by the vitriolicly anti-American Houthis.
However, administration officials are saying that the drone strokes
and other operations are continuing, but without the aid of
information from Yemeni intelligence agencies, which are now
controlled by the Houthis. Washington Post and Guardian (London)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, measles, Disneyland, anti-vaccine movement,
Russia, Ukraine, Mariupol, Crimea, Sea of Azov,
Alexander Zakharchenko,
Yemen, Houthis, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Ali Abdullah Saleh

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*** 26-Jan-15 World View -- Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Girlfriend Peristera (Betty) Baziana good fit for Greece's Alexis Tsipras
• Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece
• Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is third in Greece's elections
• Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?

****
**** Girlfriend Peristera (Betty) Baziana good fit for Greece's Alexis Tsipras
****


Alexis Tsipras and Peristera (Betty) Baziana

The girlfriend (or common law wife) of 40 year old Alexis Tsipras,
Greece's new Prime Minister, seems to be a perfect fit for him.
They're both good looking, and they share common radical far left
political beliefs.

38 year old Peristera (Betty) Baziana was an activist in the Greek
Communist Party Youth in high school, where she met Tsipras, and
joined him protests and school occupations. They've lived together
for 17 years, but don't believe in marriage. Their first son, Pavlos,
was born in May 2010. Their second son was born in June 2012, and was
named Orpheus and Ernesto, after Ché Guevara, a hero of Tsipras.
Greek Reporter

****
**** Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece
****

Greece's radical far left politician Alexis Tsipras has led his Syriza
party to victory in what is being called a historic election, because
of its implications for Europe and the eurozone. Tsipras's campaign
slogan had been "Hope is coming!" In a victory speech reminiscent of
Barack Obama's 2008 victory speech, when he promised that the world
would be a different place on January 21, the day after he took
office, Tsipras promised that "the period of austerity" is over:

<QUOTE>"Greece leaves behinds catastrophic austerity, it
leaves behind fear and authoritarianism, it leaves behind five
years of humiliation and anguish.

Our priority from the very first day will be to deal with the big
wounds left by the crisis. Our foremost priority is that our
country and our people regain their lost dignity."<END QUOTE>

Leftists were dancing in the streets in Athens when the first exit
poll results were announced, and they were joined by visitor from
left-wing parties in Italy, Germany, Spain and elsewhere. Voters were
reacting to huge budget cuts and heavy tax rises during six years of
crisis that has sent unemployment over 25 percent and pushed millions
into poverty.

Here are some of the promises that Tsipras made during the campaign:

• Write off a large portion of Greece's 300 bill euro debt
  burden. He points out, correctly, that no matter how much the Greeks
  cut back, the debt keeps getting bigger.
• A splurge in government spending.
• The minimum wage, which had been cut by around 25% in 2012,
  would be restored to its previous levels.
• People whose electricity had been cut off would have
  their electricity restored.
• There will be substantial new spending on health care and
  education.
• The jobs of 27,500 public sector workers, mostly teachers and
  municipal workers, who had been laid off would be restored.

As I wrote several times during the various Greek crisis periods of
the past years, there is no solution to Greece's debt problem. Saying
this did not require a crystal ball; it simply required doing some
simple arithmetic. As we'll discuss further below, obvious truths are
simply ignored by everyone, when they're not part of the narrative or
either the left wing or the right wing. Now Tsipras has come up with
his own non-solution.

Greece has already received some 240 billion euros in bailout loans.
It needs an additional 10-20 billion euros in loans this year,
starting in March, just to avoid bankruptcy -- and that assumes
that the austerity measures are kept in place. With Tsipras's
spending splurge, that figure could easily go up to 30-50 billion
euros. Are Greece's creditors, including the IMF and Germany,
going to lend that kind of money to Greece to fund a spending
splurge? The question answers itself.

However, there's another side to this, and this is probably what
Tsipras is counting on. Tsipras's Syriza is an umbrella party for a
number of far-left, communist and marxist policies, who will not
tolerate any compromise by Tsipras. So Tsipras will go to Brussels
and say, "Hey help me out guys. If you don't give me the 50 billion
euros I need, then my government will collapse, Greece will be forced
to leave the eurozone, and that will be a disaster for you guys,
because you need Greece more than Greece needs you." Kathimerini and BBC

****
**** Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is third in Greece's elections
****

The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, which has in the past demanded that
anyone not of Greek ancestry be deported from Greece, has come in
third place in the voting, at 6.3%. This is behind Syriza, at 36%,
and New Democracy, at 28.2%. New Democracy is headed by the departing
prime minister Antonis Samaras, and was the governing party until this
election.

This is a remarkable showing for Golden Dawn, despite the fact that
the party's leader and most of its lawmakers are behind bars, facing
charges of participating in a "criminal organization" accused of
murders, brutal attacks on migrants and others, extortion and arson.
These crimes include the Sept. 2013 murder of a leftist rapper, Pavlos
Fyssas. AP and Kathimerini

****
**** Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?
****

I've told this story several times over the years, but it's highly
relevant today:

When I heard Obama campaigning in 2008, saying that with his election
the earth would heal and the tides would recede, and making other
ridiculous promises, I didn't think much of it, since politicians
always say ridiculous things when they're campaigning, and then they
pull them back after the election.

After the election, when I heard Obama continue saying the same
things, that the world would be a different place starting on January
21, then I knew we were in trouble, and the thought that came into my
mind was, "Holy crap! If he really believes his campaign rhetoric,
then he must be delusional." Since then, Obama has had one foreign
policy disaster after another.

So now Greece's Alexis Tsipras is in the same situation, following an
election in which his major campaign promises were, in effect: "After
I'm elected, 2+2 will equal 5."

Now, it really doesn't matter whether Tsipras is the greatest orator
in the world, or the most charismatic leader in the world, or the
smartest person in the world, or the best politician in the world.
2+2 does not equal 5, and never will equal 5. Just as Obama blames
the Republicans and Fox News for 2+2 not equaling 5, Tsipras will
blame his political opposition in Athens, his political opposition in
Brussels, the "Nazi" Germans, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no matter whom he blames, 2+2
will never equal 5.

Tsipras and Obama both have a common personality type that I began
writing about frequently in 2007 (See "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X."
) I've seen this personality type frequently, almost always
among Gen-Xers, not only in politicians, journalists and other public
figures, but also in the computer industry, where I've personally seen it lead to disaster, as well
as in my personal life.

I've written about many examples of this in the 12 years I've been
developing Generational Dynamics. In the mid-2000s, it was perfectly
obvious that there was a huge housing bubble, and I wrote about it
constantly. I sold my own condo in November 2005, at the height of
the bubble. But the problem is that a housing bubble does not fit the
ideological narrative of either liberals or conservatives, and so the
delusion was massive. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and
journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble." It wasn't until 2009 that mainstream economists began saying
that there had been a housing bubble years earlier. Duh!

The personality type that I'm describing is common today in
Generation-Xers, who drive public opinion, and I've seen in many of
them the two major characteristics of someone with this personality
type:

• He's the "smartest person in the room," no matter what
  room he's in.
• When it becomes apparent that a decision is a bad decision, he
  doubles down on the bad decision, creating a disaster.

This is why such people are delusional. When a decision leads to bad
results, it must be because other people are sabotaging it, and since
the decision could not possibly have been bad, he doubles down on it.
He knows with absolute certainty that 2+2=5, and when it doesn't turn
out that way, then other people are to blame, and he has to take
additional steps to force 2+2 to be 5, which it never can be. Those
additional steps create the disaster.

As an example, one disaster in the last decade was the financial
crisis that followed from the collapse of the housing bubble that
didn't even exist because everyone has to live somewhere.

So in the days and weeks ahead, we're going to see whether or not the
radical left Tsipras is pragmatic or delusional. If he proceeds
pragmatically, if he works for some compromise that everyone,
including Brussels, the ECB, the IMF and the Germans, can go along
with, thus ending the crisis, then he'll turn out to be an intelligent
politician and leader, which will surprise a lot of people, most of
all me.

But if he doubles down, and pursues a policy of blackmailing Brussels
and the Germans, saying in effect "You need me more than I need you,
the eurozone needs Greece more than Greece needs the euro, and so I
can do whatever I want, and you'll have to go along with it," then we
can anticipate the worst of all possible scenarios. Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza,
Peristera (Betty) Baziana, New Democracy,
Golden Dawn, pavlos Fyssas, Germany, eurozone,
European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund, IMF

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 26-Jan-15 World View -- Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Girlfriend Peristera (Betty) Baziana good fit for Greece's Alexis Tsipras
• Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece
• Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is third in Greece's elections
• Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?

****
**** Girlfriend Peristera (Betty) Baziana good fit for Greece's Alexis Tsipras
****


Alexis Tsipras and Peristera (Betty) Baziana

The girlfriend (or common law wife) of 40 year old Alexis Tsipras,
Greece's new Prime Minister, seems to be a perfect fit for him.
They're both good looking, and they share common radical far left
political beliefs.

38 year old Peristera (Betty) Baziana was an activist in the Greek
Communist Party Youth in high school, where she met Tsipras, and
joined him protests and school occupations. They've lived together
for 17 years, but don't believe in marriage. Their first son, Pavlos,
was born in May 2010. Their second son was born in June 2012, and was
named Orpheus and Ernesto, after Ché Guevara, a hero of Tsipras.
Greek Reporter

****
**** Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece
****

Greece's radical far left politician Alexis Tsipras has led his Syriza
party to victory in what is being called a historic election, because
of its implications for Europe and the eurozone. Tsipras's campaign
slogan had been "Hope is coming!" In a victory speech reminiscent of
Barack Obama's 2008 victory speech, when he promised that the world
would be a different place on January 21, the day after he took
office, Tsipras promised that "the period of austerity" is over:

<QUOTE>"Greece leaves behinds catastrophic austerity, it
leaves behind fear and authoritarianism, it leaves behind five
years of humiliation and anguish.

Our priority from the very first day will be to deal with the big
wounds left by the crisis. Our foremost priority is that our
country and our people regain their lost dignity."<END QUOTE>

Leftists were dancing in the streets in Athens when the first exit
poll results were announced, and they were joined by visitor from
left-wing parties in Italy, Germany, Spain and elsewhere. Voters were
reacting to huge budget cuts and heavy tax rises during six years of
crisis that has sent unemployment over 25 percent and pushed millions
into poverty.

Here are some of the promises that Tsipras made during the campaign:

• Write off a large portion of Greece's 300 bill euro debt
  burden. He points out, correctly, that no matter how much the Greeks
  cut back, the debt keeps getting bigger.
• A splurge in government spending.
• The minimum wage, which had been cut by around 25% in 2012,
  would be restored to its previous levels.
• People whose electricity had been cut off would have
  their electricity restored.
• There will be substantial new spending on health care and
  education.
• The jobs of 27,500 public sector workers, mostly teachers and
  municipal workers, who had been laid off would be restored.

As I wrote several times during the various Greek crisis periods of
the past years, there is no solution to Greece's debt problem. Saying
this did not require a crystal ball; it simply required doing some
simple arithmetic. As we'll discuss further below, obvious truths are
simply ignored by everyone, when they're not part of the narrative or
either the left wing or the right wing. Now Tsipras has come up with
his own non-solution.

Greece has already received some 240 billion euros in bailout loans.
It needs an additional 10-20 billion euros in loans this year,
starting in March, just to avoid bankruptcy -- and that assumes
that the austerity measures are kept in place. With Tsipras's
spending splurge, that figure could easily go up to 30-50 billion
euros. Are Greece's creditors, including the IMF and Germany,
going to lend that kind of money to Greece to fund a spending
splurge? The question answers itself.

However, there's another side to this, and this is probably what
Tsipras is counting on. Tsipras's Syriza is an umbrella party for a
number of far-left, communist and marxist policies, who will not
tolerate any compromise by Tsipras. So Tsipras will go to Brussels
and say, "Hey help me out guys. If you don't give me the 50 billion
euros I need, then my government will collapse, Greece will be forced
to leave the eurozone, and that will be a disaster for you guys,
because you need Greece more than Greece needs you." Kathimerini and BBC

****
**** Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is third in Greece's elections
****

The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, which has in the past demanded that
anyone not of Greek ancestry be deported from Greece, has come in
third place in the voting, at 6.3%. This is behind Syriza, at 36%,
and New Democracy, at 28.2%. New Democracy is headed by the departing
prime minister Antonis Samaras, and was the governing party until this
election.

This is a remarkable showing for Golden Dawn, despite the fact that
the party's leader and most of its lawmakers are behind bars, facing
charges of participating in a "criminal organization" accused of
murders, brutal attacks on migrants and others, extortion and arson.
These crimes include the Sept. 2013 murder of a leftist rapper, Pavlos
Fyssas. AP and Kathimerini

****
**** Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?
****

I've told this story several times over the years, but it's highly
relevant today:

When I heard Obama campaigning in 2008, saying that with his election
the earth would heal and the tides would recede, and making other
ridiculous promises, I didn't think much of it, since politicians
always say ridiculous things when they're campaigning, and then they
pull them back after the election.

After the election, when I heard Obama continue saying the same
things, that the world would be a different place starting on January
21, then I knew we were in trouble, and the thought that came into my
mind was, "Holy crap! If he really believes his campaign rhetoric,
then he must be delusional." Since then, Obama has had one foreign
policy disaster after another.

So now Greece's Alexis Tsipras is in the same situation, following an
election in which his major campaign promises were, in effect: "After
I'm elected, 2+2 will equal 5."

Now, it really doesn't matter whether Tsipras is the greatest orator
in the world, or the most charismatic leader in the world, or the
smartest person in the world, or the best politician in the world.
2+2 does not equal 5, and never will equal 5. Just as Obama blames
the Republicans and Fox News for 2+2 not equaling 5, Tsipras will
blame his political opposition in Athens, his political opposition in
Brussels, the "Nazi" Germans, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no matter whom he blames, 2+2
will never equal 5.

Tsipras and Obama both have a common personality type that I began
writing about frequently in 2007 (See "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X."
) I've seen this personality type frequently, almost always
among Gen-Xers, not only in politicians, journalists and other public
figures, but also in the computer industry, where I've personally seen it lead to disaster, as well
as in my personal life.

I've written about many examples of this in the 12 years I've been
developing Generational Dynamics. In the mid-2000s, it was perfectly
obvious that there was a huge housing bubble, and I wrote about it
constantly. I sold my own condo in November 2005, at the height of
the bubble. But the problem is that a housing bubble does not fit the
ideological narrative of either liberals or conservatives, and so the
delusion was massive. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and
journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble." It wasn't until 2009 that mainstream economists began saying
that there had been a housing bubble years earlier. Duh!

The personality type that I'm describing is common today in
Generation-Xers, who drive public opinion, and I've seen in many of
them the two major characteristics of someone with this personality
type:

• He's the "smartest person in the room," no matter what
  room he's in.
• When it becomes apparent that a decision is a bad decision, he
  doubles down on the bad decision, creating a disaster.

This is why such people are delusional. When a decision leads to bad
results, it must be because other people are sabotaging it, and since
the decision could not possibly have been bad, he doubles down on it.
He knows with absolute certainty that 2+2=5, and when it doesn't turn
out that way, then other people are to blame, and he has to take
additional steps to force 2+2 to be 5, which it never can be. Those
additional steps create the disaster.

As an example, one disaster in the last decade was the financial
crisis that followed from the collapse of the housing bubble that
didn't even exist because everyone has to live somewhere.

So in the days and weeks ahead, we're going to see whether or not the
radical left Tsipras is pragmatic or delusional. If he proceeds
pragmatically, if he works for some compromise that everyone,
including Brussels, the ECB, the IMF and the Germans, can go along
with, thus ending the crisis, then he'll turn out to be an intelligent
politician and leader, which will surprise a lot of people, most of
all me.

But if he doubles down, and pursues a policy of blackmailing Brussels
and the Germans, saying in effect "You need me more than I need you,
the eurozone needs Greece more than Greece needs the euro, and so I
can do whatever I want, and you'll have to go along with it," then we
can anticipate the worst of all possible scenarios. Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza,
Peristera (Betty) Baziana, New Democracy,
Golden Dawn, pavlos Fyssas, Germany, eurozone,
European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund, IMF

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The type of Xer you describe is the type who rose fast during the 3T. The skills they used to rise fast were not real skills, they were political skills. There are now many such Xers in way over their heads. The actual skilled Xers have mostly been passed over, assuming they still are or ever were in the mainstream employment / career markets. I might add, the political skills the rising psychopath Xer subculture acquired were perfect for dealing with organizations filled with Boomers and Silents, with few opportunities for Xers. It was the bad apples who found success in that environment.

*** 27-Jan-15 World View -- Kurdish militias drive ISIS out of the Syrian town of Kobani

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kurdish militias drive ISIS out of the Syrian town of Kobani
• Turkey opens its biggest refugee camp to house 35,000
• Australian backlash grows over knighthood for Queen Elizabeth's husband

****
**** Kurdish militias drive ISIS out of the Syrian town of Kobani
****


A fire burns in Kobani Syria during heavy fighting between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga forces (Reuters)

Kurdish forces announced on Monday a major victory over the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), having driven all ISIS
forces out of Kobani Syria, a town strategically located on the border
with Turkey.

The battle over Kobani dominated news coverage for a while starting in
summer of last year because ISIS had committed so many of its men,
weapons and other resources to capturing the town, largely occupied by
Kurds. Syrian PYD Kurdish militias were losing ground to ISIS, even
with the help of daily American warplane strikes. Tens of thousands
of Kobani refugees were pouring into Turkey as refugees.

Note: Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. PYD = Kurdish militias
in Syria. PKK = Kurdish anti-government insurgents in Turkey.

Then, in October, Turkey had a major policy reversal, and announced
that it would, after all, allow Iraqi peshmerga Kurdish militias to
cross the border from Iraq into Turkey, travel over Turkish soil, and
then cross the border into Kobani in Syria. This was a big problem
for Turkey, and actually caused a political rift, because Turkey has
fought an insurgency by PKK Kurdish insurgents in Turkey over the last
two decades. So it was a surprise when Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan announced in October that this would be permitted. The
peshmerga forces from Iraq were heavily armed, and their aid to the
PYD are now given credit for turning the tide in the battle of Kobani.

Numerous analysts have stated that the U.S. administration's announced
military strategy of airstrikes-only, without "boots on the ground,"
has no chance of pushing back ISIS. The battle of Kobani is actually
an example of the kind of battle that these analysts have been
describing as necessary, but with Kurdish peshmerga forces supplying
the boots. However, there is no other publicly-declared example of
US-led forces closely coordinating militarily with a ground force to
battle ISIS.

The withdrawal of ISIS from Kobani raises the question of what ISIS is
going to do next with the forces that have become available.
Zaman (Turkey) and Cihan (Turkey) and Zaman (Turkey)

****
**** Turkey opens its biggest refugee camp to house 35,000
****

Turkey on Sunday opened its biggest refugee camp to house 35,000
people fleeing from the fighting in Kobani. There are 1.7 Syrian
refugees in Turkey, of which 200,000 have come from Kobani. The
majority of the refugees live outside camps, sometimes on the streets
and in shantytowns, creating tensions with the local population.
Turkey has some 24 camps, housing 265,000 Syrian refugees. Zaman (Turkey)

****
**** Australian backlash grows over knighthood for Queen Elizabeth's husband
****


Queen Elizabeth, with her husband Prince Philip to her right, in a group shot with the Knights of the Thistle. (AFP)

Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott has awarded Prince Philip, the
Duke of Edinburgh, with an Australian knighthood, the country's
highest honor. Prince Philip is the husband of Queen Elizabeth, who
is Australia's ruling monarch in name only.

According to Australia's Defense Minister Kevin Andrews, Prince
Philip's contribution to Australia has been "phenomenal":

<QUOTE>"It doesn't cost us anything to give him this award.
How else do we say, in a sense, thank you to someone who's given
six decades of public service? I think it's a phenomenal
contribution. He's still doing it in his 90s now and I think we
should just be generous about it."<END QUOTE>

However, many MPs were angered and dismayed by the award. One said
that the award was "a stupid announcement" and "manifestly amazing in
the worst possible way." Another said, "I thought it was wackily
quaint and anachronistic. But now it's just become an acute
embarrassment, just plainly ridiculous." Australian Broadcasting


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Kobani, Kurds, Iraq, Peshmerga, Syria, PYD,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Australia, Tony Abbott, Queen Elizabeth, Prince Philip, Kevin Andrews

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*** 28-Jan-15 World View -- S&P lowers Russia's bonds to junk status

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS-linked group takes credit for hotel bombing in Tripoli Libya
• Libya's oil production plummets because of conflict
• S&P lowers Russia's bonds to junk status

****
**** ISIS-linked group takes credit for hotel bombing in Tripoli Libya
****


Flaming oil storage tank after being targeted with rockets by militias in Libya (Reuters)

Militants linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS
or ISIL) took credit for an attack on the the Corinthia Hotel, Libya's
most elegant hotel, in the capital city Libya. The attack combined
gunfire and a grenade. Of the nine people killed, five were
foreigners, including American, one Frenchman, and the rest from
unspecified Asian countries.

In the 2011 civil war that ousted Muammar Gaddafi, the United States
"led from behind" in a Nato operation that aided anti-Gaddafi tribes.
Many of these tribes were united in overthrowing Gaddafi, but
afterwards splintered into two loose confederations. The government
in the west is Libya Dawn, with Islamists and militia from the Misrata
region, in control of Tripoli. The second government is the
internationally recognized government, headquartered in Tobruk in the
east. In addition, an al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Ansar
al-Sharia, is operating in Libya with headquarters in Benghazi, where
it was responsible for the attack that killed American ambassador
J. Christopher Stevens in 2012. In recent months, a number of
individuals in Libya have pledged themselves to ISIS, and have
traveled to Syria for terrorist training. Some may already have
returned.

The 2011 Nato operation did not pacify Libya, and so Gaddafi
would have to be acknowledged as correct when he warned that
Libya would descend into chaos if he were ousted. Even worse,
there was no follow-on from Nato, and huge storehouses of
Gaddafi's weapons were left unprotected, and those weapons have
spread throughout Northern Africa and beyond, via
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

However, it must be noted that Libya is in a generational Crisis era,
and that conflicts between militias began well before the ouster of
Gaddafi. Indeed, it was one of those conflicts that led to the civil
war in which Nato intervened. We can never know what would have
happened in Libya if Nato had not intervened, but in view of Libya's
generational timeline, it's quite likely that Libya would have sunk as
deeply into chaos as it did with the Nato intervention.

The war in Libya is becoming more violent every day. As I've been
reporting for several weeks, there is a large and growing Muslim versus Muslim war
already in progress,
not just in Libya, but across North Africa, the Mideast and South
Asia. This war is of historic proportions, and will affect all of us.
Reuters and CNN

****
**** Libya's oil production plummets because of conflict
****

Just as there are now two competing governments in Libya, there are
also two competing national oil corporations, with oil tankers and
pipelines becoming war targets. Libya holds the largest oil reserves
in Africa, and in good times has produced up to 1.6 million barrels of
oil per day. Since its militia wars began, however, daily production
has dropped as low as 200,000 barrels. However, the oil production
began to fall long before the civil war that ousted Gaddafi, thanks to
conflicts between militias during Muammar Gaddafi's reign. VOA and Reuters

****
**** S&P lowers Russia's bonds to junk status
****

Russia's financial crisis deepened on Monday, as ratings agency
Standard & Poors cut Russia's rating to BB+, which is junk status.
The move had been widely anticipated, but the value of the ruble fell
6% against the dollar. Russia is still at investment grade with the
two other major ratings agency, Moody's and Fitch, although many
analysts expect them also to lower Russia's rating to junk status in
the near future.

Russia's financial troubles stem from years of generous spending
programs based on an oil price of $100-120 per barrel, as oil
production is Russia's biggest industry. But facing oil prices now
below $50 per barrel, and with no spare industrial capacity because of
lack of industrial investment in the last two decades, Russia has no
way to generate foreign reserves. Add to that, the Ukrainian invasion
has turned out to be very expensive, and the Western sanctions have
made it almost impossible for Russian entities to borrow money. The
result is that Russians are moving their dollar-denominated accounts
and assets to other countries, fearing that their bank accounts might
be frozen. The result is that Russia's economy is in a downward
spiral, with no visible way of recovering. Moscow Times and Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Corinthia Hotel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Muammar Gaddafi, Libya Dawn, Misrata, Tobruk,
Ansar al-Sharia, al-Qaeda, J. Christopher Stevens,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM,
Russia, Standard & Poors, Moody's, Fitch

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*** 29-Jan-15 World View -- Greece's Alexis Tsipras escalates confrontation with Germany

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's Alexis Tsipras escalates confrontation with Germany
• Israel promises revenge after Hezbollah attack kills two soldiers
• Hezbollah's attack breaks a taboo from 2006 war

****
**** Greece's Alexis Tsipras escalates confrontation with Germany
****


Alexis Tsipras places flowers on the National Resistance Memorial in Kaisariani on Monday. (EPA)

On his first days on the job, Greece's new Prime Minister Alexis
Tsipras moved quickly to implement costly government programs that
Brussels and Germany have warned him against. Wednesday's
announcements included halting the sale of the state-owned Public
Power Corporation of Greece (PPC), halting the privatization of the
port of Piraeus, raising pensions for those on low incomes, and
reinstating some fired public service workers.

The Athens Stock Market index plunged 4%, with bank stocks falling
over 12%. The Greek 10-year bond yield was at an unsustainable 10.3%,
meaning that Greece would have to pay 10.3% interest to anyone willing
to lend it money.

As if that weren't enough, Tsipras delivered what one commentator
called "another 'up yours' to the Germans": He visited the National
Resistance Memorial at Kaisariani where, on May 1, 1944, German Nazi
forces executed 200 Greek citizens, mostly Communists.

In a recent article ( "26-Jan-15 World View -- Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece"
), I asked whether Greece's new far left
prime minister Alexis Tsipras would be pragmatic, seeking an agreement
with Brussels and Germany, or delusional, believing that he can bully
the Europeans into accepting huge new spending programs by Greece's
government. After Tsipras' first days on the job, it appears that
he's heading in the direction of being delusional. Kathimerini and Guardian (London)

****
**** Israel promises revenge after Hezbollah attack kills two soldiers
****

In the worst Hezbollah attack on Israel since the two were at war in
2006, Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles at a convoy of Israeli
military vehicles in Shebaa Farms in Israeli-occupied southern
Lebanon. The attack killed two soldiers and injuring several others.
Israel responded by firing at least 25 artillery shells into Lebanon.
Apparently, one of these artillery shells killed a Spanish member of
the UN peacekeeping force that's supposed to separate Hezbollah from
Israeli forces.

According to a statement from Hezbollah:

<QUOTE>"At 11:25 [Wednesday morning] the Qunaitra Martyrs
unit targeted with appropriate missile weapons an Israeli military
convoy comprising several vehicles and [transporting] Zionist
officers and soldiers causing the destruction of several vehicles
and inflicting many casualties on the enemy."<END QUOTE>

Hezbollah made it clear that the attack was made in revenge for a
January 18 Israeli airstrike at a convoy in Syria that killed two of
Hezbollah's top commands, as well as five Iranians and a senior
officer in Iran's élite Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).
However, it's feared that Hezbollah will demand additional revenge
beyond the killing of two Israeli soldiers.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that "Those behind the
attack today will pay the full price," and compared the situation to
the run-up to summer's Gaza war:

<QUOTE>"To anyone who tries to challenge us on the northern
border, I suggest that they look at what happened here, at the
Gaza Strip. Last summer Hamas took the hardest blow ever since
its establishment and the IDF is ready to act, with might, in all
sectors. Security is above all."<END QUOTE>

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador to the UN Security Council, said
that Hezbollah is violating the Security Council resolution that
was passed following the 2006 war, which demands the disarmament
of all armed groups in Lebanon:

<QUOTE>"For years, Hezbollah has been stockpiling weapons in
Southern Lebanon in violation of Security Council resolution
1701. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah regularly threatens Israel
and his terrorist organization took responsibility for this
morning’s attack. Hezbollah has the military capabilities, it has
made its intentions clear, and this morning we saw the results.

Israel will not stand by as Hezbollah targets Israelis. Israel
will not accept any attacks on its territory and it will exercise
its right to self-defense and take all necessary measures to
protect its population."<END QUOTE>

Hezbollah and Israel have been building up to a new war ever since the
2006 war ended. The fear is that, with the heated rhetoric and
tit-for-tat violence, the time will be now. Daily Star (Beirut) and Telegraph (London) and Algemeiner (New York)

****
**** Hezbollah's attack breaks a taboo from 2006 war
****

In 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers patrolling near the
Lebanon border. Within four hours, Israel panicked and launched a full-scale war
with Hezbollah, with
no plan and no objectives. The war was a disaster for both Israel and
Lebanon. Israel accomplished nothing but to destroy a great deal of
Lebanon's infrastructure.

Some people in Lebanon favored Israel to win the 2006 war, and some
favored Hezbollah. But once the war ended, all the people of Lebanon
were united in not wanting anything like that to happen again. And so
it became taboo for Hezbollah to provoke Israel again and risk another
attack. Wednesday's attack breaks that taboo, and is the worst
Hezbollah attack since the 2006 war.

The taboo was clearly stated in a Wednesday editorial in Beirut's
Daily Star:

<QUOTE>"Hezbollah’s reaction to Israel’s targeting of its
convoy in Syria less than two weeks ago came as no big surprise
Wednesday, as the resistance party was being pushed – both
politically and physically – by Israel into a response. But it is
imperative now that Hezbollah thinks of what is best for all of
Lebanon, not just the party itself.

The party has made it clear that the attack in the
Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms came in retaliation for Israel’s
deadly attack on its convoy. And Iran – which also lost a general
in the attack – sent a warning to Israel Tuesday. But in terms of
Syria’s place within all this, amid the numerous attacks against
it by Israel over the last few years – the latest one occurring
early Wednesday morning – it still seems it is unable or unwilling
to retaliate itself.

Israel cannot claim to have been shocked by Hezbollah’s response,
which it surely expected. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
many close to him in government will indeed have welcomed
Hezbollah’s response, for parliamentary elections in March are
fast approaching, and war is always good for a hawkish leader’s
ratings.

This is just one of the many reasons that Hezbollah must now act
with wisdom, caution and also a degree of humbleness. It would do
Israel too many favors now to escalate the situation on the
border.

Hezbollah must think of the entire country, and not just its own
interests and pride. Lebanon cannot afford the response that
Israel is promising. The country is in such a precarious security
position that a new conflict could prove disastrous."<END QUOTE>

The concern is that now that the taboo is broken, then the floodgates
are open. (Sorry for the mixed metaphor.) Hezbollah's leaders may
feel that they have not extracted enough revenge for Israel's January
18 attack, and Israeli leaders have already promised retaliation for
Wednesday's attack. Even if neither side wishes a war, a war may
occur anyway through miscalculation, as each side retaliates for the
other side's previous retaliation. That's pretty much how last
summer's Gaza war began, and it could happen again. Daily Star (Beirut)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza,
Brussels, Germany, National Resistance Memorial at Kaisariani,
Israel, Hezbollah, Shebaa, Lebanon, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Ron Prosor, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah

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