*** 30-Jan-15 World View -- ISIS-linked terrorists kill dozens in Egypt's northern Sinai

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS-linked terrorists kill dozens in Egypt's northern Sinai
• Russia looks to Greece as an ally against EU sanctions
• Greece forces compromise in planned new EU sanctions against Russia

****
**** ISIS-linked terrorists kill dozens in Egypt's northern Sinai
****


Egyptian armed forces in Sinai

At least 26 people were killed and 105 injured on Thursday in a series
of four coordinated terror attacks in Egypt's northern Sinai. The
attacks involved car bombs and mortar rounds. They targeted army and
police personnel, but civilians were killed as well.

The terror group "Sinai Province" claimed credit for the attack. The
group used to be named Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) and was linked to al-Qaeda, but late last year
pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or
ISIS or ISIL), and changed its name to "Sinai Province."

In October of last year, ABM used a car bomb to kill 33 Egyptian
troops in northern Sinai, causing Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi to declare a state of emergency in the Sinai peninsula to last
three months, with a curfew in force between 5 pm and 7 am. That
curfew expired a few days ago, but was renewed for another three
months. ( "26-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai"
)

In addition to declaring a state of emergency, Egypt closed the border
with Gaza, and began building a kilometer-wide buffer zone along the
border the Gaza. The buffer zone has received a great deal of
criticism because it required thousands of Egyptians to leave their
homes and relocate. However, al-Sisi may now announce more extreme
new measures to combat terrorism. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters

****
**** Russia looks to Greece as an ally against EU sanctions
****

With Greece's new radical far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras
questioning EU sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine
and annexation of Crimea, Russia is considering financial aid to
Greece. According to Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Greece
has not yet requested assistance from Russia, but a request would be
considered:

<QUOTE>"Well, we can imagine any situation, so if such [a]
petition is submitted to the Russian government, we will
definitely consider it, but will take into account all the factors
of our bilateral relationships between Russia and Greece, so that
is all I can say. If it is submitted we will consider
it."<END QUOTE>

Both Russia and Greece are Orthodox Christian countries, and have a
long history of economic and cultural ties, and of course the Nazis
invaded both countries during World War II. Almost 13% of Greek
imports came from Russia in 2013, according to the IMF. CNBC and CNN

****
**** Greece forces compromise in planned new EU sanctions against Russia
****

Last week, ethnic Russians in east Ukraine, backed by heavy weapons
and possibly thousands of soldiers from Russia, launched an attack on the port city of Mariupol,
although so far they've held back from an all-out assault
on Mariupol. It's assumed that Russia's objective is to create a land
bridge between Russia and Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia
invaded, occupied and annexed last year.

In view of this new military attack, the European Union in Brussels
issued a statement saying that all 28 EU nations agreed that Russia
"bears responsibility" for the attack on Mariupol. On Tuesday,
however, the new Greek government issued a statement that

<QUOTE>"[The EU statement] was released without the
prescribed procedure to obtain consent by the member states, and
particularly without ensuring the consent of Greece. In this
context, it is underlined that Greece does not consent to this
statement."<END QUOTE>

Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria had also voiced objections earlier.
These are the countries whose economies are most negatively affected
by the anti-Russia sanctions.

The result was an emergency meeting on Brussels on Thursday.
Although the Russian sanctions were a completely separate issue
from the bailout of Greece, one EU official implied that they
might be linked:

<QUOTE>"You just cannot, on the one hand, demand from Europe
to show solidarity with your own country like Mr. Tsipras does and
then, as a first official step, split the joint European
position."<END QUOTE>

So Greece's Finance Minister said on his blog that it was all just a
big misunderstanding:

<QUOTE>"The problem was that [Alexis Tsipras], and the new
Greek government, were never asked! So, clearly, the issue was
not whether our new government agrees or not with fresh sanctions
on Russia. The issue is whether our view can be taken for granted
without even being told of what it is!"<END QUOTE>

At Thursday's meeting, EU extended the existing sanctions on Russian
officials until September but, at Greece's insistence, did not add
anyone new to the list of sanctioned individuals. Greece indicated
that it was prepared to use its veto to block sanctions in the future.
Reuters and Russia Today and Greek Reporter and Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Sinai, Sinai Province,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Gaza,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza, Russia, Anton Siluanov,
Ukraine, Crimea, Mariupol, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria,
European Union

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*** 31-Jan-15 World View -- Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel
• Clashes between Nusra front and Free Syrian Army spreading in Syria
• Jundallah takes credit for massive mosque attack in Pakistan
• Egypt's military begins 'wide military offensives' in North Sinai
• Greece clashes with eurogroup 'No more bailout, no more troika!'
• In Denmark you are now paid to take out a mortgage

****
**** Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel
****


Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah giving televised speech on Friday

Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech on
Wednesday gloating about Wednesday's attack on an Israeli convoy that
killed two soldiers. According to Nasrallah:

<QUOTE>"If Israel thinks the resistance is deterred and is
scared of a conflict, I tell you now after the attack in Qunetra,
we are not afraid of war. We will not think twice about
confronting the enemy and we will do so if he forces us.

We don't want war but we don't fear it. The resistance in Lebanon
is not concerned with rules of engagement. It is our legitimate
and legal right to fight aggression, wherever and whenever it may
occur."<END QUOTE>

It was a retaliation attack for Israel's January 18 airstrike at a
convoy in Syria that killed two of Hezbollah's top commands, as well
as five Iranians and a senior officer in Iran's élite Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). It was feared that Hezbollah would
demand additional revenge beyond the killing of two Israeli soldiers,
or that Israel would strike back. Either way the fear was that
something would spiral into a larger war, as had happened in 2006.

But in fact there had already been several reports that Hezbollah was
signaling Israel that it was backing down and didn't want a war.

That Nasrallah wanted to back down is completely believable. As we
explained two days ago,
the
Lebanese people are unified in being opposed to another war between
Israel and Hezbollah, since the 2006 war accomplished nothing but to
make like miserable in Lebanon.

In addition, Hezbollah is completely tied down in Syria. It's
undoubtedly true that Nasrallah would like to be responsible for
killing a few Jews, but his behavior indicates that he's much more
excited by the possibility of massacring and slaughtering thousands of
Muslims in Syria.

As I've been reporting for a few weeks,
the real war going on in the Mideast today is not Muslims
versus Westerners, but Muslims versus Muslims. The same is true in
South Asia and North Africa. We have major terror attacks in Egypt
and Pakistan (see below), as well as news that Chad is bombing Boko
Haram positions in Cameroon. This large war of Muslims versus Muslims
is growing in many countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq,
Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Nigeria, Mali, and others to a greater
or lesser extent. Daily Star (Beirut) and Times of Israel

****
**** Clashes between Nusra front and Free Syrian Army spreading in Syria
****

Although the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL)
gets most of the press these days, thanks to their beheadings and
other publicity stunts, there are still other groups fighting in
Syria, and one those fights is said to be spreading. The al-Qaeda
linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) and Western-backed Free Syrian
Army (FSA) are both supposed to be fighting against the army of
Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime but, instead, they're fighting each
other. The clashes began on Thursday, just west of Aleppo, and on
Friday spread into Idlib province.

However, Ahrar al-Sham, another Islamist militia in Syria, has worked
with both groups in the past, and is calling for an end to the
clashes, and said the disagreement should be settled in an independent
Shariah court. Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Jundallah takes credit for massive mosque attack in Pakistan
****

A powerful explosion leveled a crowded Shia mosque during Friday
prayers in Shikarpur, a city 200 miles north of Karachi in southern
Pakistan. At least 56 people were killed. Jundullah, a splinter
group of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban) claimed credit:
"Our target was the Shia mosque ... They are our enemies."

TTP and its various splinter groups have in the past attacked both
Sunni and Shia targets, but Jundullah has specialized in sectarian
attacks against Shias. Some of these targets have been on Iranian
soil, though most have been in Pakistan. Some analysts are warning
that sectarian attacks are increasing in Pakistan, at a time when
Muslim versus Muslim attacks of all kinds are increasing throughout
the region. Daily Times (Pakistan) and AFP

****
**** Egypt's military begins 'wide military offensives' in North Sinai
****

After Thursday's sophisticated multi-location North Sinai terrorist
attack by the ISIS-linked terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM -
Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) killing 31 people and
injuring dozens, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is under
heavy criticism. There was a similar terrorist attack by the same
group last October, leading al-Sisi to declare a state of emergency in
the Sinai, and to build a one kilometer wide buffer zone along the
Gaza border, and yet ABM apparently defeated the security measures
with ease.

Al-Sisi has cut short his participation in the African Union summit in
Ethiopia to deal with the aftermath of the terror attack, and Egypt's
army is starting wide military offensives throughout North Sinai,
targeting terrorist hideouts using Apache helicopters and un-manned
planes.

There is a feeling in Egypt that the harsh security measures that were
taken after the October attacks have backfired, in the sense that the
Bedouins living in Sinai have become even more estranged from Cairo.
Al Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Greece clashes with eurogroup 'No more bailout, no more troika!'
****

Greece's new Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis met with the Eurogroup
of eurozone finance managers, and quickly announced that the meeting
was over. Varoufakis said that Greece did not want an extension to
meet the bailout conditions, and he said that he wanted to meet with
European leaders, not with technicians the "Troika" of organizations
that have been bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Greece is supposed to receive an additional seven billion euro loan at
the end of February in order to made debt payments that will come due
in March. Greece needs to make those payments or else declare
bankruptcy and leave the eurozone. However, that money is dependent
upon a review by the Troika, and Varoufakis said he would not
negotiate with the Troika. Varoufakis says that Greece doesn't want
the money, because it would be used to pay for things they don't care
about -- namely their debts. Instead, Varoufakis wants to negotiate
directly with European heads of state and negotiate staying the
eurozone without going bankrupt and without leaving the
eurozone.

After the meeting, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said, "Taking
unilateral steps or ignoring previous arrangements is not the way
forward." Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

****
**** In Denmark you are now paid to take out a mortgage
****

As we've been reporting for some time, Europe is in a deflationary
spiral which will end in a major financial panic and crisis. Now we
have a new sign: Nordea Kredit, a Danish bank, is offering a mortgage
with a negative interest rate -- which means that the bank lends you
the money, and then pays you interest. Actually, the interest rate
can vary from +0.03% to -0.03%, so not everyone will qualify for
negative interest rates, but a mortgage rate of +0.03% is not that
much anyway.

In a deflationary spiral, most people and businesses postpone
purchases and hoard cash. Hoarding cash is socially acceptable for a
residential family, but not for a bank, which is expected to lend
money for business loans and mortgages. And now, with the European
Central Bank planning a massive quantitative easing program, which
will "print" a lot of money and pump it into banks and the stock
market, banks are expected to get rid of that cash any way they can,
and now we're seeing the first negative rate mortgage.

The deflationary spiral in the U.S. is not advanced as far as it is in
Europe, but it's coming. Zero Hedge


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, al-Quds,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Aleppo, Idlib, Ahrar al-Sham,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Jundullah, Karachi,
Egypt, North Sinai, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Gaza,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
African Union, Ethiopia, Bedouins,
Greece, Yanis Varoufakis,
Troika, European Commission, European Central Bank,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, ECB,
eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Denmark, Nordea Kredit

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 31-Jan-15 World View -- Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel
• Clashes between Nusra front and Free Syrian Army spreading in Syria
• Jundallah takes credit for massive mosque attack in Pakistan
• Egypt's military begins 'wide military offensives' in North Sinai
• Greece clashes with eurogroup 'No more bailout, no more troika!'
• In Denmark you are now paid to take out a mortgage

****
**** Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel
****


Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah giving televised speech on Friday

Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech on
Wednesday gloating about Wednesday's attack on an Israeli convoy that
killed two soldiers. According to Nasrallah:

<QUOTE>"If Israel thinks the resistance is deterred and is
scared of a conflict, I tell you now after the attack in Qunetra,
we are not afraid of war. We will not think twice about
confronting the enemy and we will do so if he forces us.

We don't want war but we don't fear it. The resistance in Lebanon
is not concerned with rules of engagement. It is our legitimate
and legal right to fight aggression, wherever and whenever it may
occur."<END QUOTE>

It was a retaliation attack for Israel's January 18 airstrike at a
convoy in Syria that killed two of Hezbollah's top commands, as well
as five Iranians and a senior officer in Iran's élite Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). It was feared that Hezbollah would
demand additional revenge beyond the killing of two Israeli soldiers,
or that Israel would strike back. Either way the fear was that
something would spiral into a larger war, as had happened in 2006.

But in fact there had already been several reports that Hezbollah was
signaling Israel that it was backing down and didn't want a war.

That Nasrallah wanted to back down is completely believable. As we
explained two days ago,
the
Lebanese people are unified in being opposed to another war between
Israel and Hezbollah, since the 2006 war accomplished nothing but to
make like miserable in Lebanon.

In addition, Hezbollah is completely tied down in Syria. It's
undoubtedly true that Nasrallah would like to be responsible for
killing a few Jews, but his behavior indicates that he's much more
excited by the possibility of massacring and slaughtering thousands of
Muslims in Syria.

As I've been reporting for a few weeks,
the real war going on in the Mideast today is not Muslims
versus Westerners, but Muslims versus Muslims. The same is true in
South Asia and North Africa. We have major terror attacks in Egypt
and Pakistan (see below), as well as news that Chad is bombing Boko
Haram positions in Cameroon. This large war of Muslims versus Muslims
is growing in many countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq,
Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Nigeria, Mali, and others to a greater
or lesser extent. Daily Star (Beirut) and Times of Israel

****
**** Clashes between Nusra front and Free Syrian Army spreading in Syria
****

Although the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL)
gets most of the press these days, thanks to their beheadings and
other publicity stunts, there are still other groups fighting in
Syria, and one those fights is said to be spreading. The al-Qaeda
linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) and Western-backed Free Syrian
Army (FSA) are both supposed to be fighting against the army of
Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime but, instead, they're fighting each
other. The clashes began on Thursday, just west of Aleppo, and on
Friday spread into Idlib province.

However, Ahrar al-Sham, another Islamist militia in Syria, has worked
with both groups in the past, and is calling for an end to the
clashes, and said the disagreement should be settled in an independent
Shariah court. Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Jundallah takes credit for massive mosque attack in Pakistan
****

A powerful explosion leveled a crowded Shia mosque during Friday
prayers in Shikarpur, a city 200 miles north of Karachi in southern
Pakistan. At least 56 people were killed. Jundullah, a splinter
group of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban) claimed credit:
"Our target was the Shia mosque ... They are our enemies."

TTP and its various splinter groups have in the past attacked both
Sunni and Shia targets, but Jundullah has specialized in sectarian
attacks against Shias. Some of these targets have been on Iranian
soil, though most have been in Pakistan. Some analysts are warning
that sectarian attacks are increasing in Pakistan, at a time when
Muslim versus Muslim attacks of all kinds are increasing throughout
the region. Daily Times (Pakistan) and AFP

****
**** Egypt's military begins 'wide military offensives' in North Sinai
****

After Thursday's sophisticated multi-location North Sinai terrorist
attack by the ISIS-linked terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM -
Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) killing 31 people and
injuring dozens, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is under
heavy criticism. There was a similar terrorist attack by the same
group last October, leading al-Sisi to declare a state of emergency in
the Sinai, and to build a one kilometer wide buffer zone along the
Gaza border, and yet ABM apparently defeated the security measures
with ease.

Al-Sisi has cut short his participation in the African Union summit in
Ethiopia to deal with the aftermath of the terror attack, and Egypt's
army is starting wide military offensives throughout North Sinai,
targeting terrorist hideouts using Apache helicopters and un-manned
planes.

There is a feeling in Egypt that the harsh security measures that were
taken after the October attacks have backfired, in the sense that the
Bedouins living in Sinai have become even more estranged from Cairo.
Al Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Greece clashes with eurogroup 'No more bailout, no more troika!'
****

Greece's new Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis met with the Eurogroup
of eurozone finance managers, and quickly announced that the meeting
was over. Varoufakis said that Greece did not want an extension to
meet the bailout conditions, and he said that he wanted to meet with
European leaders, not with technicians the "Troika" of organizations
that have been bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Greece is supposed to receive an additional seven billion euro loan at
the end of February in order to made debt payments that will come due
in March. Greece needs to make those payments or else declare
bankruptcy and leave the eurozone. However, that money is dependent
upon a review by the Troika, and Varoufakis said he would not
negotiate with the Troika. Varoufakis says that Greece doesn't want
the money, because it would be used to pay for things they don't care
about -- namely their debts. Instead, Varoufakis wants to negotiate
directly with European heads of state and negotiate staying the
eurozone without going bankrupt and without leaving the
eurozone.

After the meeting, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said, "Taking
unilateral steps or ignoring previous arrangements is not the way
forward." Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

****
**** In Denmark you are now paid to take out a mortgage
****

As we've been reporting for some time, Europe is in a deflationary
spiral which will end in a major financial panic and crisis. Now we
have a new sign: Nordea Kredit, a Danish bank, is offering a mortgage
with a negative interest rate -- which means that the bank lends you
the money, and then pays you interest. Actually, the interest rate
can vary from +0.03% to -0.03%, so not everyone will qualify for
negative interest rates, but a mortgage rate of +0.03% is not that
much anyway.

In a deflationary spiral, most people and businesses postpone
purchases and hoard cash. Hoarding cash is socially acceptable for a
residential family, but not for a bank, which is expected to lend
money for business loans and mortgages. And now, with the European
Central Bank planning a massive quantitative easing program, which
will "print" a lot of money and pump it into banks and the stock
market, banks are expected to get rid of that cash any way they can,
and now we're seeing the first negative rate mortgage.

The deflationary spiral in the U.S. is not advanced as far as it is in
Europe, but it's coming. Zero Hedge


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, al-Quds,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Aleppo, Idlib, Ahrar al-Sham,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Jundullah, Karachi,
Egypt, North Sinai, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Gaza,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
African Union, Ethiopia, Bedouins,
Greece, Yanis Varoufakis,
Troika, European Commission, European Central Bank,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, ECB,
eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Denmark, Nordea Kredit

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Of course in a deflationary spiral it makes no sense to have a mortgage unless there is no other alternative (the opposite of the situation with inflation, where, the longer the mortgage term, the better off it is since it was set up based on yesterday's dollars).

*** 1-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt's al-Sisi blames foreign countries for terrorist attacks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Spain's far left Podemos party hopes to copy success of Greece's Syriza party
• Egypt's al-Sisi blames foreign countries for terrorist attacks
• Houthis use live fire against protesters in Yemen

****
**** Spain's far left Podemos party hopes to copy success of Greece's Syriza party
****


Podemos supporters in Madrid's Cibeles square on Saturday (Skyline Webcam)

A week after Greece's radical far-left Syriza took power in Greece,
Spain's radical far-left Podemos (Spanish for "we can") hopes to do
the same. In a major show of force, some 100,000 party supporters
held anti-austerity demonstrations in Madrid on Saturday, chanting
"Yes we can" and "tick tock tick tock," the latter to tell politicians
that the clock was ticking. The party is tapping into anger over
austerity programs that the EU forced them to impose and over
corruption among the political elites.

Podemos makes many of the same promises that Syriza did. They
promise to significantly raise the minimum wage, enact laws
preventing businesses from laying off employees, lowering
the retirement age from 65 to 60, and increasing pension payments.

However, the path for Podemos will be much harder than it was for
Syriza. Podemos is polling at only 30%, not enough to gain a
majority, and without the ability to take advantage of any quirk in
Spain's election laws similar to one in Greece's election laws that
turned Syriza's 36% plurality into a governing majority. Furthermore,
Spain's economy has been doing a lot better under austerity than
Greece's has. Even though the unemployment rate is still 23.7%, it's
been steadily declining.

The rapid growth of Podemos in Spain shows the danger that Europe is
facing in its crisis negotiations with Greece. If Europe is too
tough, then Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone, which would
some analysts say would be disastrous for both Greece and the
eurozone. And if Europe is too easy on Greece, then you get
"contamination," where countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy will
demand similar treatment that Germany, among others, would not stand
for. Spain Report and Bloomberg

****
**** Egypt's al-Sisi blames foreign countries for terrorist attacks
****

Egypt is still in shock in the aftermath of Thursday's multi-location
terror attack in North Sinai that killed 25-30 people, most of them
soldiers. Egypt had imposed a curfew and harsh security measures on
North Sinai after a large terror attack in October, and it's clear
that those security measures have failed.

On Saturday, Egypt announced harsh new measures to try to
prevent new violence.

Egypt's "Cairo Court of Urgent Matters" issued a verdict banning Hamas
and designating its military wing Al-Qassam Brigades as "terrorist
organizations." The court ruled that:

• The group were implicated in bombings in Egypt.
• The brigades have been planning and financing terrorist
  attacks in Egypt.
• The brigades and Hamas have changed from their original objective
  of fighting the Israeli occupation, and is now aiming to target
  Egypt's security.

A spokesman for Hamas said that the verdict was "dangerous," and that
"Al-Qassam Brigades are the symbol of resistance against the Israeli
occupation, and a symbol of the [Palestinian] nation's pride and
dignity, despite all attempts at defamation."

Shortly after the court decision, in a strident televised speech on
Saturday, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi blamed Hamas, the
Muslim Brotherhood, and unnamed foreign countries for the terror
attacks on Egypt:

• Referring to the ouster of former president Mohamed Morsi and
  his Muslim Brotherhood government in July 2013 in a coup that he
  (al-Sisi) led, he said that Egypt was "paying the price" for having
  removed this "terrorist group."
• He implied that foreign countries are sponsoring the terror
  attacks: "There are some countries that are led by leaders of this
  terrorist organization (the Muslim Brotherhood). Do you think these
  countries will leave us alone?" He did not name the countries, but
  it's thought that he's referring to Qatar and Turkey.
• He suggested that jihadists from around the world were coming to
  Egypt to join the Muslim Brotherhood: "On 21 June (2013) one of the
  main leaders of this organization warned me that they would be getting
  people from all over the world to fight you, from countries like
  Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Libya."
• He said that the Brotherhood has been planning, widening their
  horizons and establishing a stronghold all over the world, and said
  that combating the group will take a long time.

The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for Thursday's terror attack, and
has perpetrated numerous attacks in the past. In November, ABM
changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). At the same time, ABM changed its
name to "State of Sinai," in harmony with the ISIS name "Islamic
State."

Hamas itself was founded in the early 1980s as an offshoot of the
Muslim Brotherhood, and there were reports last year that the
Brotherhood is funding ABM. According to Nabil Naeem, founder of the
Islamic Jihad, another terror group in Gaza, ABM has two branches, one
in Gaza and one in Sinai, and has close relations with Hamas.

Al-Sisi concluded:

<QUOTE>"We will not leave Sinai to anyone. With your will the
army will win its confrontation with the terrorists.

It was your will on the 30 June 2013 (the date of mass anti-Morsi
protests), and it was one of the hardest decisions taken by you;
and it's your will that will keep Egypt strong and able to defeat
these terrorists."<END QUOTE>

We've been reporting since last summer on the changing alliances in
the Mideast, particularly the aftermath of a major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
, bringing Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the
Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey
plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had
been particularly vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of
Mohamed Morsi, but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and
Qataris was equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a
mediator and was able to paper over the differences and obtain a
reconciliation in time for an Arab summit meeting in December.

But now King Abdullah has passed away, and two things on Saturday
indicate that the vitriol is returning in full force: the court
verdict banning Hamas, and al-Sisi's accusations directed at "foreign
countries."

Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the 1980s war with Syria,
putting Lebanon today into a generational Awakening era, and so it is
quite believable that the Lebanese people do not want another war with
Israel, and so Hezbollah is backing down from war with Israel,
as I wrote yesterday.

But Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are in generational Crisis
eras, and so are attracted to war. So it's very unlikely that there
will be a new reconciliation between Egypt and Qatar, or between Egypt
and Hamas. Israel and Egypt now appear to be firmly in the same
corner, fighting terrorist acts from Palestinians, al-Qaeda and ISIS,
and these relationships are expected strengthen with each new
terrorist attack. The Muslim versus Muslim war
in the Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, that I've
been describing for weeks, continues to grow and become more dangerous
on a weekly basis. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Daily News Egypt and Al Ahram and Egypt Independent (9-Sep-2014)

****
**** Houthis use live fire against protesters in Yemen
****

Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in several cities in Yemen on
Saturday, as opposition continues to grow against the Houthi takeover
of the government in Sanaa. Houthi militia fighters used live
ammunition to break up the demonstrations, firing live rounds into the
air. Several protesters were reportedly abducted on Saturday by
Houthis, including youth activist Fouad al-Hamdani. Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Podemos party, Greece, Syriza party,
Portugal, Italy, eurozone,
Hamas, Gaza, Al-Qassam Brigades, Muslim Brotherhood,
Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Mohammed Morsi, Qatar, Turkey,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
State of Sinai, Saudi Arabia, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel,
Yemen, Houthis, Fouad al-Hamdani

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• End of sequestration signals explosive new spending splurge in Washington
• The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit
• Government receipts plunged when the bubbles burst
• The high federal deficit is caused by bubbles bursting, not the Iraq war

****
**** End of sequestration signals explosive new spending splurge in Washington
****

We have governments around the world spending like drunken sailors.
Japan and Europe are planning enormous quantitative easing programs,
and the new radical far-left government in Greece is demanding that
many of its debts be erased so that it can go on a new spending binge.

America's experiment with "sequestration" was truly mind-boggling.
It was proposed by President Obama as a stunt, thinking that
the Republicans would never agree to let it be applied to defense
spending, and then when the Republicans signed on, we could all
enjoy a few rounds of Schadenfreude watching Obama try to squirm
out of it.

What was mind-boggling about it is that it did cap spending in
Washington for a while, something akin to pigs flying, and something
that could only have happened by accident -- in this case the
unexpected outcome of Obama's stunt.

But now many Republicans are pointing to unrest in the Mideast
and the militaristic rise of China with concerns for the defense
budget, while Obama would like to join Greece in going on a new
spending binge.

A major part of that spending binge is on Obamacare, which is a
financial disaster but is being held together with duct tape and
astronomical subsidies. In 2014, 87% of federal Obamacare enrollees
got subsidies. For the silver plan, out of an annual $4,140 premium,
the subsidy amounts to $3,132, leaving the patient only $828 to pay
out of the $4,140. And even with that, a typical deductible is
$5,000-15,000, which means that most of these insured are effectively
uninsured, since they'll have to pay all their own medical expenses
anyway. So there may be more "effectively uninsured" people today
than there were uninsured people in the past.

Then there's CNBC, where the analysts lie constantly about stock
valuations. I used to quote analysts doing this, hoping to name and
shame them. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations"
from 2012.) But now criminal fraud is
so entrenched in the culture that no one has any shame. And they're
just taking after the Obama administration that brings criminal
investigations against reporters they don't like, and uses the IRS to
attack political opponents with a level of criminality that goes far
beyond what Richard Nixon ever dreamed of or was threatened with
impeachment for. Congress is just as bad, with massive insider
trading and fraud conducted by both parties and both branches of
Congress, as exposed by former Breitbart editor Peter Schweizer,
covered at length on the CBS show
60 Minutes.

By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 31) is still at an
astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

I've been around for a long time, but I never thought I'd live to see
the current massive level of criminality in Washington and on Wall
Street.

With sequestration likely to be thrown out, and a new spending binge
approved in Washington and around the world, this is a good time to go
over some interesting facts about the federal deficit. AP and Guardian (London)

****
**** The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit
****


Federal income, outlays and deficit, 1980 to present (as of November)

We're going to look at the above graph, step by step, to show
where the federal budget deficit comes from.

Almost everybody believes that the large federal budget deficit
was caused by the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nothing could be farther
from the truth. In fact, since the deficit began in the year 2000,
so the Iraq war couldn't have caused it.

So start by looking at the above graph. To begin, focus on the blue
line - government expenditures:

• Government spending was $600 billion in 1980, and $3.9
  trillion in 2014.
  
• Notice that there is NO BULGE in 2003 at the start of the Iraq
  war. Spending increased at the previous rate. That's because there
  was no draft, and no new troops were recruited. Troops working on
  other projects were reassigned to Iraq, so there was no increase in
  expenditures.
  
• Notice that the blue line levels off in 2011. That's because of
  sequestration. That's the only time that government spending was
  not increasing rapidly.

****
**** Government receipts plunged when the bubbles burst
****

Next, in the above graph, focus on the red line - government income /
tax receipts:

• Tax receipts were $340 billion in 1980, and $1.8 trillion in
  2014.
  
• Tax receipts plunged in 2000, because of the tech crash in the
  stock market. They start to recover in 2004, thanks to the real
  estate and credit bubbles. Then they plummet sharply again in 2008,
  as the real estate bubble collapses. Tax receipts rise again in 2010,
  because of quantitative easing and the new stock market
  bubble.

****
**** The high federal deficit is caused by bubbles bursting, not the Iraq war
****

Finally, in the above graph, focus on the green line - government
surplus or deficit (surplus increase upward, deficit increases
downward):

• Federal surplus = income - outlays. Deficit = outlays -
  income.
  
• The deficit has not been affected by outlays or government
  spending, even by spending on the Iraq war.
  
• The deficit went down when income went up, and vice versa. The
  deficit depends entirely on tax collections, and tax collections have
  depended on the real estate and stock market bubbles.

So the government surplus at the end of the 1990s was caused by the
tech bubble. The government deficit in the early 2000s was caused by
the crash of the tech bubble. The reduced deficit in the mid-2000s
decade was caused by the real estate bubble. The deficit increased
when the real estate bubble crashed. Now the deficit is coming down
because of the new stock market bubble.

As I wrote above, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is at
astronomically high levels. It will fall to about 5-6 or lower at
some point, and the stock market index will fall by 75% or more.

At that point, the deficit will soar to unsustainable levels, and all
these new spending programs will have to be canceled, except those on
which the survival of the country depend.

St. Louis Fed - Fred graph


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Europe, Greece,
sequestration, IRS, Obamacare, CNBC, stock valuations,
Richard Nixon, Peter Schweizer

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Spain's far left Podemos party hopes to copy success of Greece's Syriza party
****


Podemos supporters in Madrid's Cibeles square on Saturday (Skyline Webcam)

A week after Greece's radical far-left Syriza took power in Greece,
Spain's radical far-left Podemos (Spanish for "we can") hopes to do
the same. In a major show of force, some 100,000 party supporters
held anti-austerity demonstrations in Madrid on Saturday, chanting
"Yes we can" and "tick tock tick tock," the latter to tell politicians
that the clock was ticking. The party is tapping into anger over
austerity programs that the EU forced them to impose and over
corruption among the political elites.

Podemos makes many of the same promises that Syriza did. They
promise to significantly raise the minimum wage, enact laws
preventing businesses from laying off employees, lowering
the retirement age from 65 to 60, and increasing pension payments.

However, the path for Podemos will be much harder than it was for
Syriza. Podemos is polling at only 30%, not enough to gain a
majority, and without the ability to take advantage of any quirk in
Spain's election laws similar to one in Greece's election laws that
turned Syriza's 36% plurality into a governing majority. Furthermore,
Spain's economy has been doing a lot better under austerity than
Greece's has. Even though the unemployment rate is still 23.7%, it's
been steadily declining.

The rapid growth of Podemos in Spain shows the danger that Europe is
facing in its crisis negotiations with Greece. If Europe is too
tough, then Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone, which would
some analysts say would be disastrous for both Greece and the
eurozone. And if Europe is too easy on Greece, then you get
"contamination," where countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy will
demand similar treatment that Germany, among others, would not stand
for. Spain Report and Bloomberg

Podemos - We can, Si se puede - Yes one can, Yes we can ....

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Egypt's al-Sisi blames foreign countries for terrorist attacks
****

Egypt is still in shock in the aftermath of Thursday's multi-location
terror attack in North Sinai that killed 25-30 people, most of them
soldiers. Egypt had imposed a curfew and harsh security measures on
North Sinai after a large terror attack in October, and it's clear
that those security measures have failed.

On Saturday, Egypt announced harsh new measures to try to
prevent new violence.

Egypt's "Cairo Court of Urgent Matters" issued a verdict banning Hamas
and designating its military wing Al-Qassam Brigades as "terrorist
organizations." The court ruled that:

• The group were implicated in bombings in Egypt.
• The brigades have been planning and financing terrorist
  attacks in Egypt.
• The brigades and Hamas have changed from their original objective
  of fighting the Israeli occupation, and is now aiming to target
  Egypt's security.

A spokesman for Hamas said that the verdict was "dangerous," and that
"Al-Qassam Brigades are the symbol of resistance against the Israeli
occupation, and a symbol of the [Palestinian] nation's pride and
dignity, despite all attempts at defamation."

Shortly after the court decision, in a strident televised speech on
Saturday, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi blamed Hamas, the
Muslim Brotherhood, and unnamed foreign countries for the terror
attacks on Egypt:

• Referring to the ouster of former president Mohamed Morsi and
  his Muslim Brotherhood government in July 2013 in a coup that he
  (al-Sisi) led, he said that Egypt was "paying the price" for having
  removed this "terrorist group."
• He implied that foreign countries are sponsoring the terror
  attacks: "There are some countries that are led by leaders of this
  terrorist organization (the Muslim Brotherhood). Do you think these
  countries will leave us alone?" He did not name the countries, but
  it's thought that he's referring to Qatar and Turkey.
• He suggested that jihadists from around the world were coming to
  Egypt to join the Muslim Brotherhood: "On 21 June (2013) one of the
  main leaders of this organization warned me that they would be getting
  people from all over the world to fight you, from countries like
  Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Libya."
• He said that the Brotherhood has been planning, widening their
  horizons and establishing a stronghold all over the world, and said
  that combating the group will take a long time.

The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for Thursday's terror attack, and
has perpetrated numerous attacks in the past. In November, ABM
changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to the Islamic State / of Iraq
and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). At the same time, ABM changed its
name to "State of Sinai," in harmony with the ISIS name "Islamic
State."

Hamas itself was founded in the early 1980s as an offshoot of the
Muslim Brotherhood, and there were reports last year that the
Brotherhood is funding ABM. According to Nabil Naeem, founder of the
Islamic Jihad, another terror group in Gaza, ABM has two branches, one
in Gaza and one in Sinai, and has close relations with Hamas.

Al-Sisi concluded:

<QUOTE>"We will not leave Sinai to anyone. With your will the
army will win its confrontation with the terrorists.

It was your will on the 30 June 2013 (the date of mass anti-Morsi
protests), and it was one of the hardest decisions taken by you;
and it's your will that will keep Egypt strong and able to defeat
these terrorists."<END QUOTE>

We've been reporting since last summer on the changing alliances in
the Mideast, particularly the aftermath of a major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
, bringing Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the
Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey
plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had
been particularly vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of
Mohamed Morsi, but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and
Qataris was equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a
mediator and was able to paper over the differences and obtain a
reconciliation in time for an Arab summit meeting in December.

But now King Abdullah has passed away, and two things on Saturday
indicate that the vitriol is returning in full force: the court
verdict banning Hamas, and al-Sisi's accusations directed at "foreign
countries."

Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the 1980s war with Syria,
putting Lebanon today into a generational Awakening era, and so it is
quite believable that the Lebanese people do not want another war with
Israel, and so Hezbollah is backing down from war with Israel,
as I wrote yesterday.

But Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are in generational Crisis
eras, and so are attracted to war. So it's very unlikely that there
will be a new reconciliation between Egypt and Qatar, or between Egypt
and Hamas. Israel and Egypt now appear to be firmly in the same
corner, fighting terrorist acts from Palestinians, al-Qaeda and ISIS,
and these relationships are expected strengthen with each new
terrorist attack. The Muslim versus Muslim war
in the Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, that I've
been describing for weeks, continues to grow and become more dangerous
on a weekly basis. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Daily News Egypt and Al Ahram and Egypt Independent (9-Sep-2014)

The various unruly Terrorist abetting states are playing with fire. First step - Saudi Arabia rolls into Qatar - cleans it up. Second step - Egypt rolls into Gaza - cleans it up. Now about Turkey - that is a tough one. They are NATO (for now). I guess that means they are our ugly baby.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• End of sequestration signals explosive new spending splurge in Washington
• The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit
• Government receipts plunged when the bubbles burst
• The high federal deficit is caused by bubbles bursting, not the Iraq war

****
**** End of sequestration signals explosive new spending splurge in Washington
****

We have governments around the world spending like drunken sailors.
Japan and Europe are planning enormous quantitative easing programs,
and the new radical far-left government in Greece is demanding that
many of its debts be erased so that it can go on a new spending binge.

America's experiment with "sequestration" was truly mind-boggling.
It was proposed by President Obama as a stunt, thinking that
the Republicans would never agree to let it be applied to defense
spending, and then when the Republicans signed on, we could all
enjoy a few rounds of Schadenfreude watching Obama try to squirm
out of it.

What was mind-boggling about it is that it did cap spending in
Washington for a while, something akin to pigs flying, and something
that could only have happened by accident -- in this case the
unexpected outcome of Obama's stunt.

But now many Republicans are pointing to unrest in the Mideast
and the militaristic rise of China with concerns for the defense
budget, while Obama would like to join Greece in going on a new
spending binge.

A major part of that spending binge is on Obamacare, which is a
financial disaster but is being held together with duct tape and
astronomical subsidies. In 2014, 87% of federal Obamacare enrollees
got subsidies. For the silver plan, out of an annual $4,140 premium,
the subsidy amounts to $3,132, leaving the patient only $828 to pay
out of the $4,140. And even with that, a typical deductible is
$5,000-15,000, which means that most of these insured are effectively
uninsured, since they'll have to pay all their own medical expenses
anyway. So there may be more "effectively uninsured" people today
than there were uninsured people in the past.

Then there's CNBC, where the analysts lie constantly about stock
valuations. I used to quote analysts doing this, hoping to name and
shame them. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations"
from 2012.) But now criminal fraud is
so entrenched in the culture that no one has any shame. And they're
just taking after the Obama administration that brings criminal
investigations against reporters they don't like, and uses the IRS to
attack political opponents with a level of criminality that goes far
beyond what Richard Nixon ever dreamed of or was threatened with
impeachment for. Congress is just as bad, with massive insider
trading and fraud conducted by both parties and both branches of
Congress, as exposed by former Breitbart editor Peter Schweizer,
covered at length on the CBS show
60 Minutes.

By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 31) is still at an
astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

I've been around for a long time, but I never thought I'd live to see
the current massive level of criminality in Washington and on Wall
Street.

With sequestration likely to be thrown out, and a new spending binge
approved in Washington and around the world, this is a good time to go
over some interesting facts about the federal deficit. AP and Guardian (London)

****
**** The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit
****


Federal income, outlays and deficit, 1980 to present (as of November)

We're going to look at the above graph, step by step, to show
where the federal budget deficit comes from.

Almost everybody believes that the large federal budget deficit
was caused by the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nothing could be farther
from the truth. In fact, since the deficit began in the year 2000,
so the Iraq war couldn't have caused it.

So start by looking at the above graph. To begin, focus on the blue
line - government expenditures:

• Government spending was $600 billion in 1980, and $3.9
  trillion in 2014.
• Notice that there is NO BULGE in 2003 at the start of the Iraq
  war. Spending increased at the previous rate. That's because there
  was no draft, and no new troops were recruited. Troops working on
  other projects were reassigned to Iraq, so there was no increase in
  expenditures.
• Notice that the blue line levels off in 2011. That's because of
  sequestration. That's the only time that government spending was
  not increasing rapidly.

****
**** Government receipts plunged when the bubbles burst
****

Next, in the above graph, focus on the red line - government income /
tax receipts:

• Tax receipts were $340 billion in 1980, and $1.8 trillion in
  2014.
• Tax receipts plunged in 2000, because of the tech crash in the
  stock market. They start to recover in 2004, thanks to the real
  estate and credit bubbles. Then they plummet sharply again in 2008,
  as the real estate bubble collapses. Tax receipts rise again in 2010,
  because of quantitative easing and the new stock market
  bubble.

****
**** The high federal deficit is caused by bubbles bursting, not the Iraq war
****

Finally, in the above graph, focus on the green line - government
surplus or deficit (surplus increase upward, deficit increases
downward):

• Federal surplus = income - outlays. Deficit = outlays -
  income.
• The deficit has not been affected by outlays or government
  spending, even by spending on the Iraq war.
• The deficit went down when income went up, and vice versa. The
  deficit depends entirely on tax collections, and tax collections have
  depended on the real estate and stock market bubbles.

So the government surplus at the end of the 1990s was caused by the
tech bubble. The government deficit in the early 2000s was caused by
the crash of the tech bubble. The reduced deficit in the mid-2000s
decade was caused by the real estate bubble. The deficit increased
when the real estate bubble crashed. Now the deficit is coming down
because of the new stock market bubble.

As I wrote above, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is at
astronomically high levels. It will fall to about 5-6 or lower at
some point, and the stock market index will fall by 75% or more.

At that point, the deficit will soar to unsustainable levels, and all
these new spending programs will have to be canceled, except those on
which the survival of the country depend.

St. Louis Fed - Fred graph


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Europe, Greece,
sequestration, IRS, Obamacare, CNBC, stock valuations,
Richard Nixon, Peter Schweizer

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

You are goring a herd of sacred oxen by posting this kind of subversive material in this forum John.

*** 3-Feb-15 World View -- China builds more man-made islands in the South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China builds more man-made islands in the South China Sea
• Pentagon would welcome Japan air patrols in the South China Sea
• Jordan returns its ambassador to Israel

****
**** China builds more man-made islands in the South China Sea
****


Satellite picture of China's man-made island, November 2014 (Janes)

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. In addition to building oil rigs
and taking control of fishing grounds in other countries' territories,
China has been building man-made islands to use as military bases and
landing strips. China has claimed the entire South China Sea,
including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by
almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to
the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing
that they would lose. Instead, China is becoming increasingly
belligerent militarily, annexing other nations' territories, and
militarizing the entire sea. This is exactly the behavior that the
Nazis used, leading to World War II.

China has already created a new island nearly 2 miles long and several
hundred yards wide. China is rapidly building five man-made islands
from tiny reefs and shoals in the South China Sea. These islands will
be used to for military operations, including combat and support
aircraft, when the inevitable day arrives that China's seizures of
other countries' territories leads to a military confrontation that
could spiral into war. LA Times and Janes Defense Weekly

****
**** Pentagon would welcome Japan air patrols in the South China Sea
****

With China becoming more and more militarily belligerent in
the South China Sea, a Pentagon official said that the U.S.
would welcome Japanese air patrols over the South China Sea.
According to Admiral Robert Thomas:

<QUOTE>"I think allies, partners and friends in the region
will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function.
In the South China Sea, frankly, the Chinese fishing fleet, the
Chinese coastguard and the (navy) overmatch their neighbors. I
think that JSDF (Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces) operations in
the South China Sea makes sense in the future."<END QUOTE>

However, the State Dept. and the Pentagon may be in disagreement over
this idea. State Department spokesman Jen Psaki said, "We’re not
aware of any plans or proposals for Japan to patrol the South China
Sea. ... It sounds like reports aren’t accurate." Reuters and Japan Times

****
**** Jordan returns its ambassador to Israel
****

On Monday, Jordan announced that its country's ambassador to
Israel Walid Obeidat would be returning to Jordan's embassy
in Tel Aviv.

Obeidat was recalled three months ago at a time of violence in the
Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Temple Mount is the
holiest site in the Jewish religion, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the
third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca and Medina. When violence
forced Israel to shut down access to the Al-Aqsa mosque for two days,
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas called it "tantamount to
a declaration of war," and Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel.
Jordan had said that Israeli practices in Jerusalem were undermining
1994 peace treaty between the two countries. The peace treaty had
reaffirmed Jordanian oversight of Jerusalem's holy sites.

In its announcement on Monday, Jordan's government says it noted a
"positive development" in Israel's stance as 65,000 worshippers now
pray in al-Aqsa Mosque on Fridays. Middle East Eye and Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea,
Pentagon, State Department, Japan,
Jordan, Israel, Temple Mount, Al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Walid Obeidat

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by Crosstimbers Okie

> You are goring a herd of sacred oxen by posting this kind of
> subversive material in this forum John.

Quite honestly it depresses me how many people on both the left and
the right hate me. That's what I get for having an obsession. At
least I know I'm in good company with the mythical Cassandra. I just
hope that my final fate isn't like hers, but I'm not optimistic.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Quite honestly it depresses me how many people on both the left and
the right hate me. That's what I get for having an obsession. At
least I know I'm in good company with the mythical Cassandra. I just
hope that my final fate isn't like hers, but I'm not optimistic.

You'll be fine. Although we don't agree 100%, you are onto many issues that the average idiot never gets exposed to. You are pointing out geopolitical risks of which a subset are going to become the crisis war. Most people are currently in the same type of ignorant bliss (or is it utter fear?) that was witnessed during the first half of the 1930s. There were still naive fools, at that point, who could not see the emerging world war. Heck, there were still a few such fools as late as the late 30s (but at that point, only the true fools failed to comprehend the inevitable).

You are our Gen. Billy Mitchell and thankfully they can't fire you to shut you up.

Dealing with ISIS (and all other enemies) ...

A very low key, black hand approach is the best. "Stuff" just happens to leaders, infrastructure, weaponry. Sort of like Hogan's Heroes. No fanfare, no taking responsibility. Exterminate them quietly.

John,

Thinking that a war put entirely on the tab, when the economy was already overheating due to tax cuts for the rich and transfer subsidies to, among others, Big Pharma, is not going to drive the economy into a wall is simply wrong. No, the roughly $2Trillion we spent on the two wars is not the sole cause of the Great Recession, but it was a large cause multiplier. We had no viable recourse at that point, having already burned the checkbook. So here we are, seven years into this mess, and little expectation that we will emerge soon.

Stupid is stupid. The two wars were incredibly stupid. You can't change that.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> Thinking that a war put entirely on the tab, when the economy was
> already overheating due to tax cuts for the rich and transfer
> subsidies to, among others, Big Pharma, is not going to drive the
> economy into a wall is simply wrong. No, the roughly $2Trillion we
> spent on the two wars is not the sole cause of the Great
> Recession, but it was a large cause multiplier. We had no viable
> recourse at that point, having already burned the checkbook. So
> here we are, seven years into this mess, and little expectation
> that we will emerge soon. Stupid is stupid. The two wars were
> incredibly stupid. You can't change that.

There is absolutely no data that I'm aware of that supports this view.

The "Great Recession" was the consequence of collapse of the real
estate bubble and nothing else. The deficit is correlated to economic
bubbles, and is not correlated in any way to the Iraq War.

"Big Pharma?" Really? Are you kidding me? Pfizer, Novartis, Roche are
responsible for the real estate bubble, the real estate bubble
collapsing, and the stock market bubbles?

Now Jordan will hang the terrorists who were possibly going to be swapped. ISIS are doing their level best to feed the flames of Islam's "Civil" War. Ultimately, who wants this?

The SCO. They don't want the Northern Tier to ever be reconstructed. They want chaos in the Muslim countries, which are their along Southern and Southwestern peripheral areas.

*** 4-Feb-15 World View -- Nationalism surges in Japan and Jordan after ISIS atrocities

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Analysts are puzzled by ISIS's burning alive of Jordan's pilot
• Jordan promises revenge against ISIS for killing pilot
• Japan's nationalism surges over ISIS killings of two Japanese hostages

****
**** Analysts are puzzled by ISIS's burning alive of Jordan's pilot
****


Muath al-Kaseasbeh, drenched in gasoline, watches as the flames approach his cage to burn him alive, in screen grab from ISIS video. (Memri)

On Tuesday, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL)
released a 22:34 minute video that portrays Jordan's pilot Muath
al-Kaseasbeh being locked in a cage and burned alive. Jordan is part
of the coalition conducting air strikes on ISIS, and al-Kaseasbeh was
captured by ISIS several weeks ago.

A number of analysts on Tuesday expressed surprise that ISIS committed
this atrocity. Al-Kaseasbeh was a very high-value hostage, a member
of a leading tribe in Jordan. His value was second only to the value
of a captured American pilot, if one should occur. ISIS could have
leveraged al-Kaseasbeh for many things, including millions of dollars
in ransom money and the release of scores of terrorists in Jordan's
jails, in exchange for his release. Also, Jordan's involvement in the
American coalition against ISIS was becoming increasingly unpopular in
Jordan, and ISIS might have even been able to force Jordan to withdraw
from the coalition. In fact, Jordan stopped taking part in the
anti-ISIS airstrikes since the pilot was captured.

There are reports of a split within ISIS between factions that wanted
to kill the pilot and the factions that wanted to use him for
negotiating leverage. However, analysts are saying that it appears
that the pilot was actually killed some time ago, possibly on January
3, so negotiating was never a serious option. Obviously, the winners
ub ISIS were the factions that wanted not only to kill him, but to
kill him in as barbaric a way as possible. What was the motivation?

The analysts I heard point out that every time ISIS posts a video of
this sort, the number of recruits joining ISIS surges. Thousands of
young men and women from around the world have been traveling to Syria
to join the ISIS bloodbath, and this video will bring more. These
would-be jihadists are mostly used as cannon fodder in ISIS's war
against other Muslims in Syria and Iraq.

The ISIS strategy has to be seen in the context of the reality that
ISIS is facing. As I've been describing for weeks, there is a growing
Muslim versus Muslim war
in the
Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, and ISIS is one of the armies
fighting in that war. ISIS's armies are not fighting Europeans or
Israelis; they're fighting and killing Muslims. For ISIS to succeed,
it needs an even bigger army. Negotiating with Jordan for the release
of the pilot would have done nothing to increase the size of the ISIS
army. Burning him alive in a barbaric fashion as a PR stunt will have
that result. MEMRI

****
**** Jordan promises revenge against ISIS for killing pilot
****

Analysts on Tuesday were speculating whether the barbaric
killing of Jordan's pilot would cause Jordan's public to demand
that the government get revenge, or demand that the government
withdraw from the anti-ISIS coalition. As of this writing on
Tuesday evening ET, it seems clear that Jordan is committed to
revenge.

Actions that Jordan might take include the following:

• Immediate execution of ISIS terrorists in Jordan's jails.
  In understand that there are four of these, and they've all already
  been sentenced to death, so they may be executed quickly.
• Heavier airstrikes against ISIS. Greater participation in the
  American-led coalition. Use of Jordan's Special Forces on the ground
  in Syria and Iraq.
• Full-scale invasion by Jordan's army to fight ISIS on the ground
  in Syria and Iraq. However, this step is considered
  unlikely.

During the America's war with Vietnam in the 1960s-70s, whenever the
North Vietnamese committed some atrocity, such as burning down a
village and slaughtering all the women and children, or committing
atrocities against American soldiers, these acts would fuel the
American anti-war movement, and bring cheers from the likes of John
Kerry and Jane Fonda. America was then in a generational Awakening
era, one generation past the end of World War II, when nationalism is
typically at a low point. But Jordan today is in a generational
Crisis era, and we've reported in the past how nationalism is
increasing in countries around the world, including the U.S., Europe
and China. Anti-war movements gain little traction at such times, so
it's not surprising that those wanting revenge in Jordan are having
their way today. VOA and Time

****
**** Japan's nationalism surges over ISIS killings of two Japanese hostages
****

ISIS was embroiled in another hostage drama in recent days, having
abducted Japanese journalist Kenji Goto and his friend Haruna Yukawa.
ISIS demanded $200 million in ransom for the freedom of the two
hostages, even though it was clear that no sum that large would ever
be paid. In retrospect, it appears that ISIS had no intention of
freeing the two Japanese than it had to free Jordan's pilot, under any
circumstances.

So when ISIS released videos in the last few days showing the
beheadings of the two hostages, prime minister Shinzo Abe reacted with
outrage, promising "to make the terrorists pay the price." He added:

<QUOTE>"No country is completely safe from terrorism. How do
we cut the influence of ISIS, and put a stop to extremism? Japan
must play its part in achieving this."<END QUOTE>

Abe's statement seems straightforward enough, but in fact it appears
to mark a watershed in Japan's military policy. After being defeated
in World War II, Japan adopted a constitution that permitted the
military to be used only for self-defense. The U.S. has been
pressuring Japan for decades to increase its military budget, to take
on a greater share of responsibility for its own defense, and to
participate more in multilateral, global security operations by
committing self-defense forces.

Japan has resisted for decades. It was thought that only a major
military confrontation with China or North Korea would cause Japan to
reverse its policy. But now, ISIS seems to have accomplished
something that the US couldn't accomplish. The beheadings of the two
hostages have infuriated the Japanese people and increased nationalism
to the extent that they may now support greater military commitments
abroad.

Over the weekend, a Japanese diplomat said:

<QUOTE>"This is 9/11 for Japan. It is time for Japan to stop
daydreaming that its good will and noble intentions would be
enough to shield it from the dangerous world out there. Americans
have faced this harsh reality; the French have faced it, and now
we are, too."<END QUOTE>

This reference to 9/11 is interesting because 9/11 was also cited
frequently in past weeks in reference to the Charlie Hebdo terror
attacks in Paris. 9/11 has become a symbol in one country after
another to describe an event that turns the country around to cause a
surge in nationalism and willingness to use the military. (In
generational theory, these are called "regeneracy events," because
they regenerate civic unity for the first time since end of the
preceding crisis war.) Any country is susceptible to such popular
reversals during a generational Crisis era.

What was particularly infuriating to the Japanese people was that ISIS
gave as a reason for beheading Goto that Japan was a member of the
American-led coalition against ISIS. The reason that this is
infuriating is that Japan was NOT a member of the coalition, and could
not have been a member because of the country's constitutional
restrictions on the military to defense only. However, Japan did
offer $200 million in humanitarian aid to countries fighting ISIS.
KForce NightWatch and NY Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, Muath al-Kaseasbeh,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Vietnam, Japan, Kenji Goto, Haruna Yukawa, Shinzo Abe,
China, North Korea, France, Charlie Hebdo

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So Muslims will be in conflict with everybody else, including even the (once pacifist) Japanese?

The analysts I heard point out that every time ISIS posts a video of
this sort, the number of recruits joining ISIS surges. Thousands of
young men and women from around the world have been traveling to Syria
to join the ISIS bloodbath, and this video will bring more. These
would-be jihadists are mostly used as cannon fodder in ISIS's war
against other Muslims in Syria and Iraq.

I thought the United States was responsible for the radicalization of young Islamic cannon fodder by its invasion of Iraq?

*** 5-Feb-15 World View -- Terrorists attack school, part of growing violence in Karachi Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Terrorists attack school, part of growing violence in Karachi Pakistan
• Jordan's King vows 'relentless' war on ISIS 'on their own ground'
• The European Central Bank turns the screws on Greece's banks

****
**** Terrorists attack school, part of growing violence in Karachi Pakistan
****


Warning letter left by terrorists after bombing Karachi school on Tuesday

Seven terrorists riding motorcycles hurled hand grenades at a school
in the port city of Karachi in Pakistan. The school was damaged, but
there were no casualties. Before leaving, the terrorists left a
threat letter (shown above) saying that this attack was only a
beginning, and that "the flames of war WILL intensify and engulf your
homes!"

The attack was emblematic of the daily violence that occurs in
Karachi, making it possibly the most dangerous megacity in the world.
The massive terror attack on a Shia mosque
that I reported on a couple of days ago took place in a
Karachi suburb. There were at least 1,135 fatalities in 2014 from
terror attacks in Karachi. Although many of them could be classified
as ordinary gang warfare, many of the attacks are also sectarian in
nature. Pakistan's government has repeatedly promised to fight
terrorism, but despite terrorist activity is increasing throughout
Pakistan, authorities have done little.

Violence has been increasing in Karachi for decades, and is now
approaching a crisis level that has the potential to transform into a
secular war that engulfs first the region, then the entire country.
Express Tribune (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** Jordan's King vows 'relentless' war on ISIS 'on their own ground'
****

In the aftermath of the video by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL) depicting the barbaric murder of Jordan's pilot
Muath al-Kaseasbeh, Jordan's King Abdullah II has promised a
"relentless" war:

<QUOTE>"We are waging this war to protect our faith, our
values and human principles and our war for their sake will be
relentless and will hit them in their own ground."<END QUOTE>

Two jihadists in Jordan's jails, previously convicted and sentenced to
death, were executed by hanging on Wednesday morning. However, the
father of the murdered pilot, who belongs to a powerful tribe in
Jordan that is close to the king, said that wasn't enough:

<QUOTE>"I demand none of them amongst us be kept alive. I
demand the revenge be greater than executing prisoners. I demand
the ISIL organization be annihilated.

This murderous organization, made up of militants from all the
world countries, is acting in barbaric ways, violating all the
international laws, codes of ethics, and prisoners'
conventions. That is why I strongly demand the government to
swiftly take revenge for the blood of Moaz and the dignity of our
country."<END QUOTE>

Public opinion in Jordan, which last week seemed to favor withdrawing
Jordan from the anti-ISIS coalition, now appears to have undergone a
complete reversal. Al Jazeera and Reuters

****
**** The European Central Bank turns the screws on Greece's banks
****

Greece's new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, part of the Syriza
government of radical left-wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras, is
telling anyone who will listen that Greece will not be meeting its
austerity commitments that it made in return for receiving 240 billion
euros of bailout money paid so far, and that it will inaugurate new
spending programs.

With Greece on a collision course with Europe, the European Central
Bank (ECB) has taken the first step to isolate Greece financially. As
part of the previous bailout negotiations, the ECB had implemented a
waiver that would allow Greek banks to borrow money from the ECB using
Greek bonds as collateral, despite the fact that Greek bonds are "junk
bonds" with little investment value. On Wednesday, the ECB announced
that it was lifting that waiver, and so Greek's banks may no longer
use Greek bonds as collateral.

Greek banks are already in trouble. During December alone, 4.6
billion euros in deposits were withdrawn from Greek banks and
deposited in banks in other countries. A full-scale bank run is
feared.

There is another way that Greece can borrow from the ECB, the
Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. The ELA is considerably
more expensive, but it doesn't require collateral. Kathimerini and ECB Press Release

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Karachi, Pakistan,
Jordan, King Abdullah II,
Greece, European Central Bank, ECB,
Yanis Varoufakis, Syriza, Alexis Tsipras,
Emergency Liquidity Assistance, ELA

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RE: Karachi - I have met some really brilliant and wonderful people from (or in some cases still living in) Karachi. This is what makes the situation there even more of a travesty. So much human potential unrealized. It is a crime against humanity.

RE: "That is why I strongly demand the government to swiftly take revenge for the blood of Moaz and the dignity of our country."

If Jordan had nuclear weapons, they might just end up being used. At some point, there will be a confluence of a country with nuclear weapons and a reaction to events that leads to seeking total annihilation of ISIS or some other such enemies of normal Civilization. The pieces are falling into place for the Crisis War.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> If Jordan had nuclear weapons, they might just end up being
> used. At some point, there will be a confluence of a country with
> nuclear weapons and a reaction to events that leads to seeking
> total annihilation of ISIS or some other such enemies of normal
> Civilization. The pieces are falling into place for the Crisis
> War.

A lot of people think that the next use of nuclear weapons will be
Pakistan vs India.

*** 6-Feb-15 World View -- Mideast war widens as Jordan vows to destroy ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mideast war widens as Jordan vows to destroy ISIS
• 80 million people exposed by massive Anthem Inc. data breach

****
**** Mideast war widens as Jordan vows to destroy ISIS
****


Jordanians chant slogans to show support for government action against ISIS, carrying posters of the slain pilot and of King Abdullah II (AP)

For months I've been describing the Muslim versus Muslim war that has
been growing throughout the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia.
This week, the Mideast war has widened as Jordan begins to take
revenge against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL).

Two days after a video emerged showing Jordanian pilot Muath
al-Kaseasbeh being burned alive, Jordan has apparently declared
all-out war on ISIS. Jordan began with airstrikes on Thursday,
targeting ISIS training centers and arms and ammunition depots, in an
air mission named "Muath the Martyr."

The military, in statement directed at ISIS read on state TV, said,
"This is the beginning and you will get to know the Jordanians."
Other messages called ISIS the "enemies of Islam."

Jordan's foreign minister Nasser Judeh said: "We said we are going to
take this all the way, we are going to go after them wherever they are
and we're doing that." This means that Jordan will be conducting air
strikes in Iraq, as well as in Syria as before. The United States
military is cooperating by speeding up arms deliveries and by moving
search and rescue capabilities from Kuwait to Iraq.

The mood in Jordan has changed substantially. Last week, the
population was split between wanting to stay in the American-led
coalition and those wanting to withdraw completely. This week, the
public seems to be united in favor of revenge. The National (UAE) and CNN and
AP

****
**** 80 million people exposed by massive Anthem Inc. data breach
****

The massive Anthem Inc. data breach affects 80 million current and
former customers of the following health plans: Anthem Blue Cross,
Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of
Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore,
Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.

The following information was apparently obtained: names, dates of
birth, member ID/ social security numbers, addresses, phone numbers,
email addresses and employment information. Medical information
was not obtained.

Unfortunately, there is no time limit on this exposure. Once hackers
have your social security number and other information, they can use
it for identity theft at any time in the future.

If you are potentially affected by the breach, you should go to the
Anthem Inc. data breach FAQ
and take steps to protect yourself. Anthem is offering its
customers a free identity theft protection service.

Anthem says that they have a "state of the art security system," but
that seems to be a joke right about now. One problem is that social
security numbers, birth dates and other information were stored in the
data base in clear text. If that information had been stored in
encrypted form, then it would be useless to hackers. But, as an IT
professional and a Senior Software Engineer, I know from my personal
experience and the experience of friends that trying to convince
management to encrypt this data is liable to get you admonished or
fired. Something like that probably happened at Anthem, and now 80
million people will have to pay the price. As in other industries,
stupidity has no limits in the computer industry. USA Today and Wired and Anthem Inc.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, King Abdullah II, Muath al-Kaseasbeh,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Nasser Judeh, Kuwait, Anthem Inc.

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*** 7-Feb-15 World View -- Central African Republic 'peace deal' collapses instantly as slaughter continues

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Central African Republic 'peace deal' collapses instantly as slaughter continues
• Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks towns in Niger, as war expands into region
• Houthis complete takeover coup in Yemen

****
**** Central African Republic 'peace deal' collapses instantly as slaughter continues
****


Central African Republic refugees plow a small plot of land for food (UN)

Two former presidents of the Central African Republic (CAR) signed a
"peace agreement" in a meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, several days ago.
One was Francois Bozizé, the Christian former president, who was
ousted in a coup in March 2013 by the other participant, Michel
Djotodia, the Muslim former president, who served until January 2014.
The ceremony was kind of laughable, since the agreement was
meaningless from the moment it was signed.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka
militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the
Christian constituencies of the deposed Francois Bozizé. In December
2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the
Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed
into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Selekas.

Throughout 2014, various African Union and United Nations committees
and conferences have been looking for ways to bring the violence to an
end. On Thursday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon asked the Security
Council to approve 1,030 more peacekeepers to bring the total to
nearly 13,000. Just to put that number in perspective, the NY City
police department has over 34,000 uniformed officers for just one
city, while CAR is an enormous country the size of France. However,
NY City has 8 million people, while CAR has 5 million.

However, considering the situation in CAR, 13,000 peacekeepers is far
too few. According to the UN, 438,000 people in are displaced within
CAR, more than 423,000 people have fled to Cameroon, Chad, and the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and 2.5 million people are in
urgent need of humanitarian assistance.

Michel Djotodia was interviewed by the BBC on Thursday and asked if he
would be able to return to Bangui, the capital city, and take part in
elections planned for later this year (my transcription of
simultaneous translation):

<QUOTE>"The conditions are not right. I can't.

The provisional government is having trouble protecting even the
palace in Bangui. So what would I do? I can't return. There
must be some security. That's why I'm here - to try and bring back
peace and security to the country.

But the people don't want it. First of all, there aren't even any
institutions in CAR. The state as such no longer exists. The
army has disappeared. The police doesn't exist. Justice is on
its knees. All these state institutions have practically
vanished.

One, how can anyone claim that we're ready for elections? Two,
the majority of Central Africans are outside the country. How can
we organize elections? You'd have to take the ballot boxes on
your head to Chad, Cameroon, and France, so that people could
vote. Do you find that normal? It would make a mockery of CAR's
people."<END QUOTE>

The United Nations and Djotodia together describe a disintegrated
country in total chaos. Most of the peacekeeping forces are
concentrated around the capital city Bangui, and even there are not
keeping much peace. The Muslim Selekas are mostly in control of the
east, while the Christian anti-balaka militias are mostly in the west.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is in a
generational crisis war, and it won't end until it's fully run its
course, and reaches a climax.

CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis
war is inevitable.

The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French
colonialists, but it also had its share of the same kind of tribal
violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends,
the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were
perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives
to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or
grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have
passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the
last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from
starting, and that's what's happening now.

Many people are surprised at this narrative, mainly because they've
never heard of the Kongo-Wara Rebellion. But just as young Americans
today have heard of World War II, you can be sure that young people in
CAR today, both Muslims and Christians, have heard of the Kongo-Wara
Rebellion. And these young people know nothing of the horrors of that
war. What the Muslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war
heroes because they killed thousands of French and Christians, while
the Christians have heard that their great-grandfathers were even
bigger heroes, because they slaughtered even more Muslims.

So, the French Foreign Legion and the United Nations and African Union
peacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on the current war, but
nothing will stop it now. All Africa and
Bloomberg and United Nations
and Reuters

****
**** Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks towns in Niger, as war expands into region
****

Nigeria's terrorist group Boko Haram invaded Niger on Friday,
attacking two towns in a part of Niger that is already home to tens of
thousands of refugees who have fled Boko Haram attacks back in
Nigeria. On Wednesday and Thursday, Boko Haram attack a town
in Cameroon, leaving nearly 100 dead and 500 wounded.

The Boko Haram insurgency is rapidly becoming an international war,
with Cameroon, Niger, Chad and Benin all having pledged to send troops
to fight Boko Haram. AP

****
**** Houthis complete takeover coup in Yemen
****

After several days of large anti-Houthi public demonstrations, often
violently disrupted by Houthi officials, the minority Houthis have
completed their coup and taken complete control of Yemen's government
in Sanaa, replacing the elected parliament with a military council
completely controlled by the Houthis.

The Shia Houthis are thought to be supported by Iran. They now have
control of northern Yemen, but Sunni tribes in central and southern
Yemen are not expected to accede to their control. These include the
moderate Islamist Islah party, backed by Saudi Arabia, Al-Qaeda on the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the secessionist groups in Yemen's
Southern Movement.

The main concern now is that tensions among these groups will spiral
into a civil war, joining the growing war engulfing the Mideast that
I've been talking about for weeks. Probably the best scenario that
can be hoped for is that Yemen will quietly become a disintegrated
state, joining Libya, Syria and Iraq, joining Somalia and Central
African Republic in Africa, with Nigeria on the horizon.

The previous government had depended on aid from Saudi Arabia to pay
salaries. That aid is being cut off, and so the next crisis may be
unable to pay salaries in one of the poorest countries in the world.
Yemen Online and VOA and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR, Bangui,
Francois Bozizé, Michel Djotodia, Seleka, anti-balaka, Ban Ki-moon,
Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
French Foreign Legion, United Nations, African Union,
Nigeria, Niger, Boko Haram, Benin,
Yemen, Houthis, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Islah party, Saudi Arabia, Southern Movement

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*** 8-Feb-15 World View -- Iannis Xenakis's work 'Kottos' echoes Greece's Nazi vs Communist struggle

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iannis Xenakis's work 'Kottos' echoes Greece's Nazi vs Communist struggle
• Greek Tragedy and Generational Dynamics
• Nigeria postpones national elections because of Boko Haram
• Gulf Arabs condemn Houthi takeover of Yemen

****
**** Iannis Xenakis's work 'Kottos' echoes Greece's Nazi vs Communist struggle
****


Iannis Xenakis -- 1966 picture

Iannis Xenakis's 1977 work "Kottos" for cello will be performed on
Thursday at Harvard University. Like other works by Iannis, it's not
exactly melodic. The composer himself describes it as follows: "In
general: the sounds, except for the harmonics, should not be beautiful
or nice in the usual sense, but rough, harsh and full of noise."
(Iannis Xenakis (1922-2001) is my first cousin - father's brother's
son.)

It's roughness comes because it echoes the conflict between Communists
and Nazis in Greece during World War II. In the 1940s, Iannis was a
member of ELAS, the Communist-led Greek resistance, helping to drive
the Nazis from Greece. The subsequent British occupation and the
conservative Greek monarchy turned against ELAS; Iannis, having
survived a British shell that destroyed his eye and shattered his
face, fled. The Greek government sentenced him to death in absentia.
He settled in Paris, working as an architect and, then, a composer.

In Greek mythology, Kottos was giant with a hundred arms and 50 heads.
Kottos fought in the massive war between Zeus and the Titans. Like
Iannis, Kottos was imprisoned and exiled. Iannis' cello composition
echoes both of those stories.

If we look at the trends in Greece over the past five years or so, we
can see the same trend lines emerging as in World War II. The radical
far left party Syriza is governing Greece today, aligning with Russia
and mocking the Germans. At the same time, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn
party has been gaining strength in the last two years, despite the
fact that several of its leaders are in jail for corruption and
murder. Greece's relationship with its European lenders, especially
Germany, is currently in crisis, and with a new bond payment due at
the end of February, the crisis may be about the worsen substantially.

As I've been writing for years since the Greek fiscal crisis began,
there is no solution. By that I don't mean that we haven't been
clever enough to find a solution. I mean that, as with many of
today's world problems, no solution exists. Greece, Germany and
Europe are headed for an inevitable tragedy which they've inflicted on
themselves, and even though we can see it coming, we can't stop it.
Extrapolating these trends, we can see that the war between Zeus and
the Titans will be fought once more. Boston Globe and Xenakis Project of the Americas

****
**** Greek Tragedy and Generational Dynamics
****

I've found that few non-Greeks really understand what tragedy is
about. As a Greek I know that a sense of tragedy is in my
bones. Tragedy as an art form was invented in ancient Greece, and
three of four great tragic artists of all time were Aeschylus,
Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece, with the fourth being
Shakespeare.

What tragedy does is to bring order out of seeming random events.
Many people misunderstand the deepest meanings of tragedy. If a child
is killed in a random traffic accident, then it's a terrible event but
it's not a tragedy in the classical sense, because of that randomness.

The essence of classical tragedy is that the tragic event is not
random. The tragic event is inevitable: it MUST occur, and the reason
it must occur is because of the nature, the personality, the character
of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be prevented, even by
those who foresee it, because the forces bringing about the tragedy
are too powerful for anyone to stop.

Like the child killed in a random traffic accident, the protagonists
of a true tragedy have a great future before them, and in the Greek
view, perhaps even a heroic future. But the heroic future turns into
disaster because the players in the true tragedy move step by step
towards that disaster; and all of us on the outside can see it coming,
because these particular players are uniquely capable of inflicting
this disaster on one another.

The war between Zeus and the Titans could not be prevented. The war
between the Nazis and the Communists in Greece in WW II could be
foreseen, but could not be prevented. Today, the growing conflict
between Greece and Germany once again is completely foreseeable, but
can't be prevented, because no solution exists. In each case, it's
the nature, the character of the participants that leads them
inexorably to inflict a horrible tragic disaster on each other.

It would not be wrong to describe the Generational Dynamics web site
as displaying the greatest tragic play in human history. The
countries of the world -- the US, China, Greece, Israel, Iran,
Pakistan, India, Russia, etc. -- are all moving towards a tragic
disaster that only they are uniquely capable of inflicting on one
another. The script for this play is being written in the daily World
View articles. Nothing can be done to prevent this tragic disaster,
but through Generational Dynamics we have a way of standing on the
outside, and watching it arrive, step by step by step.

****
**** Nigeria postpones national elections because of Boko Haram
****

Nigeria's electoral commission has postponed the February 14
presidential elections by six weeks, in view of threats of further
terrorist attacks by Boko Haram. The US State Dept. says that Boko
Haram has become extremely wealthy and has large storehouses of
weapons, and it's hard to see how the security situation will improve
in six weeks. It's feared that Nigeria is on a path that will
inevitably cause it to join other countries, including Somalia, Libya,
Central African Republic, and Yemen, that are disintegrating before
our eyes. Nigeria Tribune and BBC

****
**** Gulf Arabs condemn Houthi takeover of Yemen
****

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations has condemned
the Houthi takeover of Yemen as "a grave and unacceptable escalation
[that] endangers the security, stability, sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Yemen." The GCC said its own security was linked to that
of Yemen and vowed to take "all the necessary measures to defend their
interests." Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iannis Xenakis, Kottos,
Greece, Germany, ELAS, Zeus, Titans,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Yemen, Houthis, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC

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*** 9-Feb-15 World View -- 30 dead in Cairo Egypt as soccer fans clash with police

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 30 dead in Cairo Egypt as soccer fans clash with police
• Greece's Alexis Tsipras approaches Wednesday confrontation with Europe

****
**** 30 dead in Cairo Egypt as soccer fans clash with police
****


Pickup truck in flames during Sunday's clashes between football fans and police (AP)

Authorities are concerned about widespread riots and demonstrations
after 30 people died and dozens were injured in clashes with police at
a football (soccer) game in Cairo on Sunday, when hundreds of football
fans tried to enter the stadium without buying tickets. Police fired
teargas and birdshot to disperse the crowd. Most of the deaths were
due to suffocation, while other were killed in a stampede after the
police fired teargas.

Young football fans in Cairo, known as Ultras, have become highly
politicized. Football fan clubs joined together in Tahrir Square in
2011 to bring about the ouster of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak.
When the army took over, the Ultras demonstrated against the army.
Then they demonstrated against the Muslim Brotherhood, during the days
of president Mohamed Morsi. Now the fear is of major demonstrations
and riots against the former general and current president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi.

Sunday's incident is certainly going to renew the widespread criticism
of the police in an incident that occurred on February 2, 2012, at a
football match in Port Said, when fans of two opposing football clubs
were killed in clashes with each other.

The attackers were mostly fans of the home team, the al-Masry football
club, while the victims were Cairo Ultras, fans of the visiting team,
Cairo's Al-Ahly football club, a group that had actively taken part in
the Tahrir Square protests during 2011, and the suspicion is
widespread that police were responsible for the violence, in order to
get revenge against the Ultras. There were plenty of riot police
present at the game, but video shows that they allowed the violence to
continue without interference, and they may even have aided the
violence by blocking the escape route of the victims.

However, fans were furious a year later when an Egyptian court
sentenced 21 football fans to death for participating in the riot,
while the police were completely exonerated. This particularly
infuriated the ultras, who believed that the police were responsible.
( "27-Jan-13 World View -- Egypt in crisis after two days of violent clashes"
)

After the 2012 incident, Egyptian football matches were closed to
spectators, a ban which was only just recently lifted. Egypt's
cabinet has now decided to suspend all football game indefinitely.

There are hundreds of thousands of politically active Ultras, and it's
now thought that it's almost certain that they'll be returning to
Tahrir Square for anti-government and anti-police demonstrations. How
far these demonstrations will probably depends mostly on how
skillfully and transparently they handle the investigation of Sunday's
incident. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Greece's Alexis Tsipras approaches Wednesday confrontation with Europe
****

Greece's new radical left-wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras appears
to be approaching a head-on clash with the Eurogroup, the eurozone
finance ministers, when they all meet on Wednesday.

On Sunday, Tsipras gave his maiden speech to Greece's parliament. He
repeated his plan to increase government spending, and he repeated his
demand that Europe continue to fund Greece's increased spending by
billions of dollars. In particular, he's asking Europe to provide a
"bridge loan" to support the increased spending through June, to give
Greece and the Europeans time to negotiate revised bailout terms that
will allow the increased spending to continue into the future.

He's also demanding World War II reparations from Germany for the
damages brought by the Nazis. He called it, "A moral obligation to
our people, to history, to all Europeans who fought and gave their
blood against Nazism." Germany has already firmly refused to consider
reparations.

In his speech, Tsipras announced the following new and revived
spending programs:

• Humanitarian measures will include free food, electricity,
  shelter and medicine for families that have been hurt by the economic
  crisis.
• The Greek radio and television network (ERT) will be recreated
  after it was shut down by the previous government. Laid off
  government employees, including school guards and cleaners, will have
  their jobs restored.
• There will be a return to employees' rights, including
  restoration of collective bargaining and protection from layoffs.
  The minimum wage will be increased.
• Previous increases in retirement age and reductions in pensions
  will be reversed.

Offsetting these spending increases, Tsipras promised to reduce
corruption and tax evasion, and also to sell off half of all
government limousines. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Cairo, Ultras, Hosni Mubarak,
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Port Said, Al-Ahly, Al-Masry, Tahrir Square,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza, Germany, reparations

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