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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 84







Post#2076 at 02-09-2015 01:23 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 8-Feb-15 World View -- Iannis Xenakis's work 'Kottos' echoes Greece's Nazi vs Communist struggle


  • Iannis Xenakis's work 'Kottos' echoes Greece's Nazi vs Communist struggle



Iannis Xenakis -- 1966 picture
Was he your father?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#2077 at 02-09-2015 01:49 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Wonkette View Post
Was he your father?
He was my first cousin - my father's brother's son.

He stayed with us for a few days when he came to America around 1960.
He apparently didn't enjoy his stay, because he left mysteriously in
the middle of the night.

John







Post#2078 at 02-09-2015 11:43 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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10-Feb-15 World View -- Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism are nonsense

*** 10-Feb-15 World View -- Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism are nonsense

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism are nonsense
  • Nigeria and Boko Haram declare war after election postponement


****
**** Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism are nonsense
****



Bill O'Reilly's facts that prove that Islam is at war with the West

Islam is not at war with the West. Islam is at war with itself, as
I've written several times.
There
is a massive, historic war of Muslims versus Muslims that is growing
every week. Things like the Charlie Hebdo attack are only for
recruiting and fund raising. Countries include: Yemen, Libya, Syria,
Iraq, Somalia, Mali, Nigeria-Niger-Cameroon-Chad, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Bangladesh. ISIS armies are not attacking the West; they're
slaughtering tens of thousands of Muslims. It's the most important
development going on today.

On Friday, I watched Bill O'Reilly's show on the Fox News Channel,
where the subject under discussion was Islam's war on the West, and
that Islamic extremism is an existential threat to America. O'Reilly
said that it was, and he promised that he "had the facts." I was
quite curious to know what "facts" he had, so I stayed tuned.

The "facts" are summarized in the graphic shown above, based on a Pew
Research poll. He said that this graphic showed that "a significant
minority of Muslims do support violent terrorism." He read off the
stats, and ended with: "and in Bangladesh a whopping 47% of Muslims
support suicide bombing against CIVILIANs."

Are you kidding me? Does O'Reilly or anyone else believe that
Bangladeshis care about a suicide bombing in the West, or that they'd
even pay attention if one occurred? These people struggle every day
just to feed their kids, and couldn't care less what happens in the
West.

Now, I doubt that anyone on O'Reilly's staff knows even a single fact
about Bangladesh, including how to find it on a map, and that would
explain their silly conclusion. To illustrate, here's a two-day-old
news story:

<QUOTE>"Nine killed in Bangladesh fire bomb attacks on bus,
truck

DHAKA Sat Feb 7, 2015 1:36am EST

(Reuters) - At least nine people, including two children, were
burned alive in Bangladesh when opposition activists hurled petrol
bombs at a packed bus and a truck in the latest spasm of worsening
political violence, police said on Saturday. ...

At least 70 people have been killed and hundreds injured in
violence over the past month, including the latest deaths in arson
attacks overnight."<END QUOTE>

This is day to day life in Dhaka. In 2009, I wrote a lengthy article
about violence in
Bangladesh, that began:

<QUOTE>"76 Bangladesh army officers were mutilated and killed
last week by men under their command. The massacre, which occurred
over a 33 hour period on February 25-26, has shocked the country
for its brutality. Bodies of officers and their wives were
mutilated and piled into mass graves. Security forces have
arrested hundreds of guards, including many who fled to towns and
cities across the country."<END QUOTE>

In 1971, Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) fought an extremely bloody
and genocidal civil war between two Muslim ethnic groups -- the
Urdu-speaking Biharis from the upper castes of Indian society, versus
the indigenous Bengalis, from the "untouchable" castes of India.

Although the war ended, the hatred continues between these two
ethnic groups, and today there are still calls for violence by
one side against the other. That ALWAYS happens after a civil
war.

In fact, it sometimes happens in countries where there's been no civil
war. I remember America in the 1960s, I remember the "long hot
summers" of violent riots, and I remember the bombings and calls for
violence from groups like the Weather Underground. During "the
Troubles" in Ireland, both Catholics and Protestants were calling for
violence. Today in Mexico, you have drug cartels slaughtering
civilians and calling for violence, and we needn't be reminded that
these people are Christians, not Muslims.

The point is that if you take a bunch of poll results, as O'Reilly
did, and claim to have the "facts" about something, then you're
talking nonsense. When a person's wife and children are slaughtered
by someone else, that person will want revenge. That's a human
emotion, whether the person is a Muslim, a Buddhist, a Hindu, a Jew or
a Christian.

I'll discuss one more item on O'Reilly's list: "Muslims in Palestinian
territories -- 46%." Here we have to be reminded about some facts
that a lot of people don't want to hear. The Gaza Palestinians
believe themselves to be Israeli's prisoners, and in last summer's
Gaza war, thousands of Palestinian women and children were killed by
Israeli airstrikes. These airstrikes may have been completely
justified by the tunnels and weapons stores, but that doesn't matter
to the people whose family members were killed, and who now seek
revenge. But it doesn't mean that Islam is at war with the West. It
means that the Palestinians are at war with the Israelis, and there's
little doubt that that's true, and that explains the Pew poll
statistic.

Islam is NOT at war with the West. ISIS armies are fighting Muslims,
not Westerners. In country after country, Muslims are at war, almost
always with other Muslims. That's a completely different thing, and
it's extremely dangerous because sooner or later we'll be pulled into
it, whether we like it or not. We should try to understand that,
instead of referencing irrelevant poll statistics. Reuters and Pew Report (PDF)

****
**** Nigeria and Boko Haram declare war after election postponement
****


Nigeria's government has caused an international uproar by Saturday's
announcement to postpone the February 14 presidential elections for
six weeks, until March 28. The reason given was threats by Boko Haram
to disrupt the election with terror attacks. However, the Muslim
opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, is accusing the government of
using the Boko Haram threat as an excuse to gain time in order to keep
the Christian president, Goodluck Jonathan, in office for another
term.

Nigeria had an extremely bloody civil war between 1967 and 1970, that
pitted Christians versus Muslims and ethnic groups against each other.
In order to avoid further violence, officials in 1979 adopted an
informal rule that the office of president would alternate between a
Christian and a Muslim, with two 4-year terms each. This rule was
followed until 2010, when Jonathan took over as head of state after
the death of the Muslim president Umaru Yar'Adua, who was part way
through his first term. Jonathan then won the next election in 2011,
and so a Christian has been president almost continually since 1999.

So the Muslim opposition now suspects that the purpose of the election
postponement is to give Jonathan a way to gain time to win the
election, possibly through fraudulent means.

Indeed, many people are wondering what good the six-week extension
will be at all. Nigeria's army has totally failed to bring Boko Haram
under control for six years, so what good will another six weeks do?

The army responds that things have changed recently, and that they're
now getting plenty of international help from Cameroon, Niger, Benin
and Chad, and that the combined effort of 7,000 troops could bring
violence "to a level that will allow for a free and fair election."

However, Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, issued a video on
Monday, effectively declaring war on the international coalition.

<QUOTE>"Your alliance will not achieve anything. Amass all
your weapons and face us. We welcome you. ... You send 7,000
troops? Why don't you send 70 million? This is small. Only 7,000?
By Allah, it is small. We can seize them one-by-one. We can seize
them one-by-one."<END QUOTE>

The fear is that the next six weeks will see increased violence in
Nigeria's northeast, forcing another election delay and, in the worst
scenario, bringing about a new military coup. BBC and Deutsche Welle and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bill O'Reilly, Fox News, Bangladesh,
East Pakistan, Israel, Gaza, Palestinian territories,
Weather Underground, Mexico, Ireland, Pew Research,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari,
Umaru Yar'Adua, Cameroon, Niger, Benin, Chad, Abubakar Shekau

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Post#2079 at 02-10-2015 11:33 AM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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The Muslim Civil War is also a war being manipulated to prevent any hope of reforming the Northern Tier / CENTO.







Post#2080 at 02-10-2015 11:20 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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11-Feb-15 World View -- Iran/Saudi relations worsen over Yemen and falling oil prices

*** 11-Feb-15 World View -- Iran/Saudi relations worsen over Yemen and falling oil prices

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Citigroup: Oil could plunge to $20 per barrel
  • Iran's threatens oil transports, blaming Saudis for falling oil prices
  • More on the growing Muslim versus Muslim wars


****
**** Citigroup: Oil could plunge to $20 per barrel
****



Iran's Supreme Leader tweets a threat to Saudi Arabia over falling oil prices (Memri)

After falling during the last year from over $100 per barrel down to
below $45 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil
has record to around $52 per barrel. However, Citigroup analysts say
that the current price is unsustainable, and that we'll soon see oil
fall well below $40 per barrel, and perhaps as low as in the $20's
range for a while, possibly triggering the collapse of OPEC.

The reasons for the continuing plunge in oil prices are:

  • The U.S. shale oil (fracking) revolution, with U.S. drillers
    pumping 9.21 million barrels a day, the most since 1983.
  • The result will be an global oversupply of about 2 million barrels
    a day in the first half of 2015.
  • U.S. crude inventories expanded to 413.1 million barrels, the
    highest since records were kept in 1982.
  • Oil supply will probably exceed demand by 700,000 barrels a day in
    the first quarter and 800,000 barrels a day in the second
    quarter.


The result is that oil storage is "heading toward the tank-tops,"
meaning that storage space is running out, and the oversupply will
push prices down substantially. Bloomberg

****
**** Iran's threatens oil transports, blaming Saudis for falling oil prices
****


On February 24, 1990, after a drastic fall in oil prices, Iran accused
Saudi Arabia of being party to a Western plot against Iran. At that
time, Iran and Iraq were still at a state of war, and Iran threatened
to confiscate oil shipments to Iraq that pass through the Strait of
Hormuz. Iran demanded that the Saudis conform to the demands of the
oil cartel OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).

Two weeks ago, the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei, renewed that threat, by repeating part of it in a tweet,
saying that "crashing oil prices ... is a blow against Islamic and
independent nations," and promising to "answer a blow with a blow."

According to a state-sponsored editorial:

<QUOTE>"Iran, as the center of Islamic awakening, shows
tremendous patience in [its] foreign policy... But the anger of
this patient element has irreversible consequences for the Aal
Saud family and their allies in the region, from Aal Nahyan [the
UAE royal family] to Aal Khalifa [the Bahraini royal
family]. Beware of the patient ones. Saudi Arabia must not depend
on sunny days – on the contrary, it must prepare for a stormy
day... The nations of the region will not forget the Arab leaders'
betrayal by means of reducing oil prices, and revenge will be a
minimal punishment for this strategic mistake by Saudi Arabia.

Today, all the arteries of oil transport – from Bab-el-Mandeb
strait to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz – are under
Iranian control, by means of Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, and within
range of Iranian missiles. If the need arises, the nations of the
region will be informed of Saudi Arabia's and its allies'
despicable collaboration with the Zionist regime..."<END QUOTE>

Iran has recently been bragging that they now have control of the
capital cities in four other countries -- Lebanon, Syria, Iraq,
and most recently Yemen. The Supreme Leader now wants to leverage
that control by threatening oil transport throughout the region,
in order to raise oil prices.

With the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II, and his replacement
by King Salman, the Saudis have been indecisive in reacting to the
takeover of Yemen by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis. Saudi Arabia has
contributed some $4 billion in aid to Yemen since 2011. That aid was
largely suspended in December after Houthis took control. Now the
Saudis have to decide whether to go further and intervene militarily,
which would raise the conflict with Iran to an even higher level.

Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia are extremely vitriolic. When the
news of King Abdullah's death broke, an Iranian state-sponsored
news agency published a cartoon welcoming him to hell:


Iran cartoon on King Abdullah's death: Left devil: 'Welcome'; right devil: 'The Master in the furnace of hell' (Memri)

After Abdullah's death, a top Iranian advisor called on the new King
Salman to change policies: "As for King Salman's desire for an
Israeli-Palestinian peace – this is impossible, because the Zionists
need to leave the occupied lands..." Memri and
Al-Jazeera

****
**** More on the growing Muslim versus Muslim wars
****


I received a number of reader responses to yesterday's article on
Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism,
and the point that Islam is at war with itself, not with
the West. There are no Muslim countries or Muslim armies attacking
the West, but there are a number of Muslim armies and militias
attacking and killing thousands of other Muslims, including Muslim
women and children.

Most of the questions were of the following sort: "Why can't Muslims
be at war with other Muslims AND with the West?"

The answer really is "No".

It's certainly true that Osama bin Laden was at war with the West, as
were a number of Saudi jihadists. Other jihadists groups would like
to be at war with the West, but they're too bogged down killing other
Muslims to attack the West. That's the point. For example, I'm sure
the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) would like
to wage war against the West, but they'll never get the opportunity
because they'll never defeat all the Muslim armies around them,
without a world war. No Muslim army could possibly have the resources
to fight other Muslim armies and the West at the same time.

As I've been saying for years, we're headed for a world war where the
Saudis will be our enemy, aligned with Pakistan and China, and Iran
will be our ally, aligned with Russia and India. It will never be the
case that "Islam is at war with the West," but it will be like World
Wars I and II, where we were at war with some Muslim armies and allied
with other Muslim armies, and that will be bad enough.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Citigroup, West Texas Intermediate, WTI,
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Strait of Hormuz, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC,
King Abdullah II, King Salman, Yemen, Houthis,
Bill O'Reilly, Fox News, Osama bin Laden,

Permanent web link to this article
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Post#2081 at 02-10-2015 11:43 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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Of course, terrorism is an option. But this tends to be conflict on a small scale, and may involve only a handful of perpetrators.

My question is....what is this Muslim against Muslim war about?







Post#2082 at 02-11-2015 02:29 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 11-Feb-15 World View -- Iran/Saudi relations worsen over Yemen and falling oil prices

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Citigroup: Oil could plunge to $20 per barrel
  • Iran's threatens oil transports, blaming Saudis for falling oil prices
  • More on the growing Muslim versus Muslim wars


****
**** Citigroup: Oil could plunge to $20 per barrel
****



Iran's Supreme Leader tweets a threat to Saudi Arabia over falling oil prices (Memri)

After falling during the last year from over $100 per barrel down to
below $45 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil
has record to around $52 per barrel. However, Citigroup analysts say
that the current price is unsustainable, and that we'll soon see oil
fall well below $40 per barrel, and perhaps as low as in the $20's
range for a while, possibly triggering the collapse of OPEC.

The reasons for the continuing plunge in oil prices are:

  • The U.S. shale oil (fracking) revolution, with U.S. drillers
    pumping 9.21 million barrels a day, the most since 1983.
  • The result will be an global oversupply of about 2 million barrels
    a day in the first half of 2015.
  • U.S. crude inventories expanded to 413.1 million barrels, the
    highest since records were kept in 1982.
  • Oil supply will probably exceed demand by 700,000 barrels a day in
    the first quarter and 800,000 barrels a day in the second
    quarter.


The result is that oil storage is "heading toward the tank-tops,"
meaning that storage space is running out, and the oversupply will
push prices down substantially. Bloomberg

****
**** Iran's threatens oil transports, blaming Saudis for falling oil prices
****


On February 24, 1990, after a drastic fall in oil prices, Iran accused
Saudi Arabia of being party to a Western plot against Iran. At that
time, Iran and Iraq were still at a state of war, and Iran threatened
to confiscate oil shipments to Iraq that pass through the Strait of
Hormuz. Iran demanded that the Saudis conform to the demands of the
oil cartel OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).

Two weeks ago, the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei, renewed that threat, by repeating part of it in a tweet,
saying that "crashing oil prices ... is a blow against Islamic and
independent nations," and promising to "answer a blow with a blow."

According to a state-sponsored editorial:
<QUOTE>"Iran, as the center of Islamic awakening, shows
tremendous patience in [its] foreign policy... But the anger of
this patient element has irreversible consequences for the Aal
Saud family and their allies in the region, from Aal Nahyan [the
UAE royal family] to Aal Khalifa [the Bahraini royal
family]. Beware of the patient ones. Saudi Arabia must not depend
on sunny days – on the contrary, it must prepare for a stormy
day... The nations of the region will not forget the Arab leaders'
betrayal by means of reducing oil prices, and revenge will be a
minimal punishment for this strategic mistake by Saudi Arabia.

Today, all the arteries of oil transport – from Bab-el-Mandeb
strait to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz – are under
Iranian control, by means of Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, and within
range of Iranian missiles. If the need arises, the nations of the
region will be informed of Saudi Arabia's and its allies'
despicable collaboration with the Zionist regime..."<END QUOTE>

Iran has recently been bragging that they now have control of the
capital cities in four other countries -- Lebanon, Syria, Iraq,
and most recently Yemen. The Supreme Leader now wants to leverage
that control by threatening oil transport throughout the region,
in order to raise oil prices.

With the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II, and his replacement
by King Salman, the Saudis have been indecisive in reacting to the
takeover of Yemen by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis. Saudi Arabia has
contributed some $4 billion in aid to Yemen since 2011. That aid was
largely suspended in December after Houthis took control. Now the
Saudis have to decide whether to go further and intervene militarily,
which would raise the conflict with Iran to an even higher level.

Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia are extremely vitriolic. When the
news of King Abdullah's death broke, an Iranian state-sponsored
news agency published a cartoon welcoming him to hell:


Iran cartoon on King Abdullah's death: Left devil: 'Welcome'; right devil: 'The Master in the furnace of hell' (Memri)

After Abdullah's death, a top Iranian advisor called on the new King
Salman to change policies: "As for King Salman's desire for an
Israeli-Palestinian peace – this is impossible, because the Zionists
need to leave the occupied lands..." Memri and
Al-Jazeera

****
**** More on the growing Muslim versus Muslim wars
****


I received a number of reader responses to yesterday's article on
Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism,
and the point that Islam is at war with itself, not with
the West. There are no Muslim countries or Muslim armies attacking
the West, but there are a number of Muslim armies and militias
attacking and killing thousands of other Muslims, including Muslim
women and children.

Most of the questions were of the following sort: "Why can't Muslims
be at war with other Muslims AND with the West?"

The answer really is "No".

It's certainly true that Osama bin Laden was at war with the West, as
were a number of Saudi jihadists. Other jihadists groups would like
to be at war with the West, but they're too bogged down killing other
Muslims to attack the West. That's the point. For example, I'm sure
the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) would like
to wage war against the West, but they'll never get the opportunity
because they'll never defeat all the Muslim armies around them,
without a world war. No Muslim army could possibly have the resources
to fight other Muslim armies and the West at the same time.

As I've been saying for years, we're headed for a world war where the
Saudis will be our enemy, aligned with Pakistan and China, and Iran
will be our ally, aligned with Russia and India. It will never be the
case that "Islam is at war with the West," but it will be like World
Wars I and II, where we were at war with some Muslim armies and allied
with other Muslim armies, and that will be bad enough.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Citigroup, West Texas Intermediate, WTI,
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Strait of Hormuz, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC,
King Abdullah II, King Salman, Yemen, Houthis,
Bill O'Reilly, Fox News, Osama bin Laden,

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
You've fallen victim to the SCO's scissors strategy. In fact, the SCO is a single clenched fist. However, the SCO wants us to believe in things like the false Sino - Russian split, and to believe that the Saudis are an enemy of the Anglo-US world, etc. This is the same as the way that Stalin used Hitler as an icebreaker, to open the way for conquest of Europe. Stalin wanted us to believe that Hitler and Tojo were our only enemies, meanwhile, he was good old Uncle Joe. Yeah, some ally, the minute Hitler went down they were surging into Europe and had we not done D-Day they would have been raping and pillaging on the shores of the Bay of Biscay.

I now can see based on your family history why you have this blind spot. Things in Greece made people put themselves into black and white warring camps - Nazis and Commies.

Don't fall for it.







Post#2083 at 02-12-2015 12:15 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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02-12-2015, 12:15 AM #2083
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12-Feb-15 World View -- US closes Yemen embassy, following Somalia, Syria and Libya

*** 12-Feb-15 World View -- US closes Yemen embassy, following Somalia, Syria and Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Failing Ukraine ceasefire negotiations to go through the night
  • Greece's negotiations with eurozone fail to reach deal
  • US closes Yemen embassy, following Somalia, Syria and Libya


****
**** Failing Ukraine ceasefire negotiations to go through the night
****



Grim faces in 'family photo' during a break in the negotiations (EPA)

As of this writing on Wednesday evening ET, the negotiations
to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine have failed to reach agreement.
However, negotiations will continue through the night.

Violence has been increasing in eastern Ukraine, as Russia has
poured heavy weapons and possibly thousands of soldiers from
Russia to support the anti-government Russians in east Ukraine.

The meeting is taking place in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus.
The participants are Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's
leader Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's
President François Hollande. Earlier in the day, a tense
Vladimir Putin broke a pencil he was holding. At a scheduled
"family photo" during a break in the meeting, all four faces
were extremely grim.

Ukraine's government would like Russia to stop supplying weapons and
soldiers to the insurgents. Russia would like Europe to end the
sanctions. Right now, it looks like neither side will get what they
want. BBC
and Twitter

****
**** Greece's negotiations with eurozone fail to reach deal
****


Wednesday's meeting of the Eurogroup meeting of eurozone financial
ministers ended in failure, with no agreement. Under its new
government, Greece is demanding a "bridge loan" that will permit it to
pay its bills and increase government spending over the next six
months. Several eurozone countries, led by Germany oppose this
proposal. Since no joint statement was issued on Wednesday, it's
thought that the two sides are very far apart. There will be another
Eurogroup meeting on Monday. Kathimerini

****
**** US closes Yemen embassy, following Somalia, Syria and Libya
****


Violence in Sanaa, the capital city in Yemen, has been increasing
after the al-Houthi ethnic group completed its coup last week, and
took complete control of Yemen's government.
Anti-Houthi demonstrations have been growing, and
Houthi militias have been using force to disperse crowds. The
al-Houthis are an Iran-backed Shia militia, and their slogan is: "God
is the Greatest. Death to America. Death to Israel. Damn the Jew and
Victory to Islam."

Fearing an assault, the U.S. on Tuesday closed its embassy in Sanaa
and evacuated all personnel. As soon as U.S. officials left the
capital, the Houthis seized more than 20 vehicles from the evacuated
embassy.

Yemen is the home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which
the U.S. has been fighting with the cooperation of the preceding
government. It's not clear whether the new al-Houthi government will
agree to continued attacks on AQAP, particularly the drone strikes,
but the al-Houthis themselves also would like to see AQAP defeated.

Yemen becomes the third Arab country to lose its American embassy
since December 2010, when the "Arab spring" began, creating turmoil in
one country after another throughout the Mideast. The Syrian war
forced the closure of the US embassy in Damascus in February 2012, and
the dissolution of Libya's government forced the closure of the
embassy in Tripoli in July 2014.

On January 8, 1991, looters in the army of the government of Somalia
fired rocket grenades in the capital city Mogadishu, leading to the
famous "Blackhawk down" incident. The U.S. embassy was closed, and
all diplomats and employees were evacuated. In July of last year,
President Obama appointed Omar Abdirashid Ali Shamarke to be the first
U.S. ambassador to Somalia since 1991. However, Sharmarke will work
out of the American embassy in Nairobi, Kenya. AP and U.S. State Dept. and ABC News (14-Jul-2014) and LA Times (8-Jan-1991)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Germany, Angela Merkel,
France, François Hollande, Greece, Eurogroup, eurozone,
Yemen, Houthis, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Sanaa, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Mogadishu,
Omar Abdirashid Ali Shamarke, Nairobi, Kenya

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Post#2084 at 02-13-2015 12:04 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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13-Feb-15 World View -- Europe faces 'enormous tragedy' over Mediterranean

*** 13-Feb-15 World View -- Europe faces 'enormous tragedy' over Europe's Mediterranean rescue program

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Europe faces 'enormous tragedy' over Europe's Mediterranean rescue program
  • Confusion reigns over Ukraine ceasefire deal


****
**** Europe faces 'enormous tragedy' over Europe's Mediterranean rescue program
****



Rescue of migrants in rubber dinghy

At least 300 migrants have drowned in the Mediterranean sea
after their boats sank earlier this week. They had
departed from Libya on Saturday in four rubber dinghies that
sank after four days at sea. Only nine people were rescued out
of hundreds of migrants trying to reach Italy's Lampedusa Island.

Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR Europe bureau director, said:

<QUOTE>"This is a tragedy on an enormous scale and a stark
reminder that more lives could be lost if those seeking safety are
left at the mercy of the sea. Saving lives should be our top
priority. Europe cannot afford to do too little too
late."<END QUOTE>

This "tragedy" is going to force the European Union, once again, to go
through a painful review of its search and rescue policy in the
Mediterranean, to prevent it from turning into what Pope Francis
called "a vast cemetery."

Europe was forced into such a review after two tragic shipwrecks
October 2013 in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and Syrian
migrants drowned. ( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in"
) After that, Italy began spending 9 million euros
per month on a program called "Mare Nostrum" (Latin for "Our Sea") to
rescue drowning migrants trying to reach Italy.

Italy has been complaining since then that it shouldn't entirely be
Italy's responsibility to rescue migrants in the Mediterranean, and
that it should be a shared responsibility among all the EU nations.
Naturally, other EU nations were perfectly happy letting Italy foot
the entire search and rescue bill.

But after much haggling, the Mare Nostrum program expired in October,
after which the search and rescue function was taken over by an EU
operation called "Triton." However, Triton's budget is much smaller,
just 2.9 million euros per months. And it restricts its operations to
only within 30 miles of the Italian coast.

In the year from October 2013 to October 2014, Italy rescued about
100,000 refugees. Estimates are that 3,000 refugees have died in the
Mediterranean 2014, critics are complaining that "multiples of the
3,000" will drown because Mare Nostrum was replaced by Triton. Adding
to the concerns is that the number of refugees attempting the trip
doubled in 2014 to 218,000 from the 2013 figure. The number is
expected to increase further in 2015.

It's politically almost impossible for the EU or any democratic
government to ignore and allow thousands of people to simply
drown, no matter who's at fault. Pro-refugee activists claim
that the EU has no choice but to increase its search and rescue
budget again.

People smugglers charge desperate people from Syria and North Africa
thousands of dollars each, stuff them all on a boat and send it out to
sea, knowing that someone will rescue them (or not caring whether
someone will rescue them). In a well-publicized case in December,
people smugglers packed almost 1,000 people into a boat, after
typically collecting thousands of dollars from each migrant, and sent
the ship out into the open sea with no crew, running on autopilot.
( "2-Jan-15 World View -- European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships"
)
The Italian navy was able to board the ship and take control of it.

Skeptics point out that having a robust search and rescue operation
only encourages migrants to risk the trip. They argue that if there
had been no search and rescue effort, then migrants would not attempt
to reach Europe. Others point out that desperate people in Syria and
Eritrea will take the risk no matter what Triton's budget is.
Irish Independent and UNHCR and Guardian (London, 31-Oct-2014)

****
**** Confusion reigns over Ukraine ceasefire deal
****


Ukraine ceasefire negotiations continued through the night in Minsk,
the capital city of Belarus. The negotiators were Russia's President
Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's leader Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor
Angela Merkel and France's President François Hollande.

On Thursday morning, Putin came out and announced a ceasefire deal.
According to the deal:

  • The ceasefire will start on Sunday.
  • Both sides will immediately pull back heavy weapons,
    starting on Sunday.
  • The anti-Russian sanctions will end on Monday, unless
    extended.
  • Kiev will resume sending pension checks, welfare payments, and
    government salaries to the districts under the Russians' control.
  • The Russian-held portions of east Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk,
    have special status, and are largely out of control of the Kiev
    government. They will have their own militias.
  • Kiev will control the border with Russia again by the end of the
    year.


It's hard to find anything meaningful in this. Do we believe that the
anti-government Russians in east Ukraine are going to stop shooting?
Do we believe that Russia is going to stop sending soldiers and
weapons into east Ukraine? Do we believe that Putin will keep any
commitment at all, if he doesn't feel like it? A lot of people would
answer "no" to all of these.

If the West lifts the sanctions on Monday, then Putin will have won a
total victory, and completely humiliated the West. More likely, the
sanctions will be kept in place, and nothing will have changed. We
may have some answers by mid-week. AP and Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Italy, Mare Nostrum, Triton,
Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR, Eritrea, Somalia, Syria,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Germany,
Angela Merkel, France, François Hollande

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Post#2085 at 02-13-2015 10:56 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
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14-Feb-15 World View -- Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden

*** 14-Feb-15 World View -- Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden
  • What's the value of a human life?
  • Generational Dynamics and prolactin


****
**** Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden
****



Aftermath of the bombing of Dresden, February 1945

On Thursday, 10,000 people joined hands along the Elbe river
commemorating the tens of thousands of people who were burned alive on
February 13, 1945, when the Allies firebombed Dresden. In the space
of 23 minutes, hundreds of bombers dropped some 3,000 high-explosive
bombs and 400,000 incendiary bombs. The city center was vaporized.
The fires sucked up all the oxygen, so that those who weren't burned
to death dies of suffocation. The fires could be seen 200 miles away,
and the temperatures reached so high that glass melted in cellars.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the firebombing of
Dresden is looked at as part of the "explosive climax" of a
generational crisis war. Non-crisis wars almost always end
indecisively, as in the case of America's Korean and Iraq wars. (The
Vietnam war ended decisively as a victory for Vietnam because,
although it was a non-crisis war for America, it a crisis war for
Vietnam.)

There are many events that contributed to the explosive climax
of World War II, but the following three are perhaps the
best-known:

  • The landing at Normandy beach, where tens of thousands
    of American soldiers were shot down like fish in a barrel.
  • The firebombing of Dresden, where tens of thousands of people
    were burned alive.
  • The nuclear bombing of Japanese cities.


What these three events have in common is that they illustrate
something that happens in a crisis war that doesn't happen in a
non-crisis war: As the war approaches an end, the value of an
individual human live drops to zero, and the only thing of value is
the survival of the entire society and its way of life.

This happens to every society, every nation, without exception at the
climax of a generational crisis war. When a society becomes desperate
enough, they will take steps so horrible that the traumatized
survivors will spend the rest of their lives feeling guilty about them
and perhaps even regretting them, while the younger generation growing
up later will have no such regrets. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and BBC

****
**** What's the value of a human life?
****


I wrote about this a lot when the Sri Lanka civil war was approaching
a climax in 2009. The civil war had been going on over two decades,
and as far as I know, every analyst and journalist in the world was
predicting that the war would continue for many more years. However,
in January 2008 something changed that made it clear from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics that this war had transitioned into a
generational crisis war that would soon reach a climax. As I wrote at
that time (see "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels"
),
the army suddenly committed itself to defeating the LTTE (Tamil
rebels) by the end of 2008.

<QUOTE>"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning
point once we are able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate
in bunkers and forward defense lines."<END QUOTE>

What followed during the next year was very dramatic. The LTTE
purposely embedded itself in the civilian population, so that the army
could not attack them without killing civilians. The army ferociously
attacked the LTTE, even when civilian lives were at stake. What
happened was that the value of a civilian life had dropped to zero for
both the army and the LTTE, and the only thing of value was victory.

Today, there are calls for the Sri Lankan army to be charged with war
crimes, to which my response is that if Sri Lanka is a war crime, then
the firebombing of Dresden is also a war crime -- something that some
German activists would agree with.

Regular readers of this daily Generational Dynamics World View article
may wonder how I select topics and what things I look for. In my
mind, I'm constantly trying to measure how much the value of an
individual human life has become, and I tend to choose stories that
indicate either that the value remains high or that the value is going
lower. So, for example, yesterday's story on Europe's search and rescue program
for migrants crossing
from Libya to reach Italy is really a story about how important it
still is to Europeans whether desperate refugees drown in the
Mediterranean Sea.

Obviously the most recent examples where the value of a human life is
zero is terror attacks by the likes of Boko Haram, ISIS, al-Qaeda and
the Taliban. Even within that domain, there are differences. The
Charlie Hebdo bombing in Paris was bad, but not as bad as the
slaughter of 2000 people by Boko Haram that was occurring in the same
time frame. ( "10-Jan-15 World View -- Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre"
)

And it's not always Muslims who are the perpetrators. In "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
, I wrote about
the wild, frenzied attack by Buddhists on Muslims that killed dozens
and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims,
including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. In that
article, I compared the slaughter to 1938's Kristallnacht, which was a
prelude to the Nazi Holocaust.

I've written several times
about
the Central African Republic and its generational crisis war currently
in progress between the Muslim tribes and the Christian tribes. Both
sides are committing atrocities, and this war will not end until
there's been an explosive climax that all survivors will regret for
the rest of their lives.

A reader recently wrote and asked me:

<QUOTE>"John: Which country will be the first to use a
nuclear weapon?"<END QUOTE>

That's an interesting question whose answer cannot be predicted. The
countries with nuclear weapons are: US, Russia, UK, France, China,
Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea. Once the world war starts, any
one of these countries might be the first, if the people in that
country panic and decide that nothing is more important than victory.
By the climax of the war, every one of those countries will have
reached that conclusion, and every nuclear weapon will have been used.
My estimate is that by the time the war ends, some 3 billion people
will have been killed, leaving about 4 billion people to rebuild the
world. At that time, the survivors will vow never to let anything
like that ever happen again, and will take all the steps they
can think of to keep that vow.

****
**** Generational Dynamics and prolactin
****


The discussion above of nuclear weapons is the kind of article that
divides people. I've often been puzzled by other people's reactions
to my web site. Some want to read it every day, others absolutely
can't stand it, and can't stand me as a result. Ten years ago,
friends I've known for years treated me as a harmless kook, but now,
as the world worsens and one generational theory prediction after
another has come true, those friends now shun me. This is similar to
the mythical Cassandra, whom I've written about many time. I've also
been puzzled why, after 12 years, there's no other web site in the
world like mine.

A couple of weeks ago, I heard something that provided some insight.
There was a BBC World Service show called "Why Factor," with the
subject "Sad/Gloomy Music." It turns out that some people can listen
to sad music and really enjoy it, while other people listen to sad
music and absolutely can't stand it.

This observation seemed stunningly similar to the reactions to my
World View articles and my web site.

The only "happy" music sample they played during the show was "The
Beatles - I Want to Hold your Hand." They played samples of a number
of "sad" music songs:

Billie Holiday - Gloomy Sunday
James Taylor - Riding on a Railroad
Joni Mitchell - River
Kylie Minogue - Can't Get You Out of My Head
Johann Sebastian Bach - Prelude in B minor, number 24
Mikhail Ivanovich Glinka - La Separation
Felix Mikhailovich Blumenfeld - Etude Sur Mer
Arvo Pärt - Spiegel Im Spiegel
Djivan Gasparyan - I Am Outcast By You
The Rankin Family - Chi Mi Na Morbheanna
Oliver Mtukudzi - Neria
Víctor Jara - Te Recuerdo Amanda
M.R Shajarian - Rain
Chris Isaak - Wicked Games
Samuel Barber - Adagio for Strings

According to the show, the last in this list is the most popular
sad song among the show's listeners.

The show described the differences in chord structure between happy
and sad music, but unfortunately I know nothing about music and didn't
understand, which is too bad.

However, according to the BBC show, the differences in music are also
generational: In the 1960s (the generational Awakening era), most
popular music had the "happy" chord structure, while in the 2000s (the
generational Crisis era), most popular music has the "sad" chord
structure.

This opened my eyes to a whole new slant on the generational changes
in music. In my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X"
,
I wrote about the generational changes in the lyrics of music since
World War II, and I quoted some Gen-X lyrics, such as the song
"Mr. Self Destruct" by Nine Inch Nails.

However, the concept that there are "happy chords" and "sad chords"
and that they differ by generations goes beyond lyrics and was quite
new to me.

One personal note: For my whole life, I've always loved Great Band Era
music, 1935-45, and I still have a large record collection of Great
Band Era songs. I'm going to guess that most Great Band Era music had
the "sad" chord structure, and I'm going to guess that that's the
reason I like it a lot more than most popular music, and I'm going to
guess that my enjoyment of Great Band Era music is related to my being
able to do this World View article every day. I also love original
cast recordings from the 1930s-50s, and the reason may be the same.

Returning to the BBC program, there's a theory having to do with the
hormone prolactin. Prolactin has to do with milk production in
pregnant women, and has no known normal function in men. However,
according to the show, there's some research that men and women who
like sad music have an excess of prolactin, and those who hate sad
music don't have enough prolactin. So maybe what makes me unique is
that my blood is overflowing with prolactin. And also, maybe the
people who read my World View articles have more prolactin than
average, and those who can't stand them have less.

According to Prof David Huron of Ohio State University, quoted in the
program:

<QUOTE>"The research shows that for ordinary sadness, when
we're in that state, we are our most deadly realistic in our
self-appraisal. It has beneficial effects on judgment, on memory,
all sorts of cognitive benefits that happen from being in a
saddened state."<END QUOTE>

Since the World View articles are most "deadly realistic" analyses
around, then this is the theory how I can write these articles every
day: I have a good analytical ability, I have just the right
education, and, most important, I have too much prolactin in my blood.
If this theory is true then, Dear Reader, that's why I'm able to write
these articles every day. And for similar reasons, that's why you
read them every day.

Here's a comment from a reader:

<QUOTE>"I have a sister who sees the world through rose
colored glasses. I have ceased to attempt to give her insight, or
guidance into where we are headed. She prefers, in spite of
overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to see the world as a
"nice" place, where someone will always arrive in time to save
her, and those she cares about, from evil."<END QUOTE>

My suggestion: Both of you should be tested for prolactin levels.

BBC World Service - Why Factor - Sad Music and Podcast (mp3)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Dresden, Normandy, Japan,
Sri Lanka, Tamil Tigers, Boko Haram, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Taliban,
Myanmar, Burma, Kristallnacht, Central African Republic,
BBC World Service, Why Factor, prolactin, David Huron, Ohio State

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Post#2086 at 02-13-2015 11:19 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Xenakis, your model has largely only been applicable to the mid-19th century and later. Only after the democratization of national aims which in wartime also means who controls and determines the war aims has the world largely had the pattern of smaller wars and peace during most of the interspersed with a large war every once in a while. Your notion that war veterans will always seek peace from whenever the war they fought in ended can be disproven easily. WW1 and WW2 occurred one generation between one another. Hitler and his top Nazis consisted almost entirely of individuals who fought in the worst of the fighting conditions of WW1, yet they planned and initiated a even worse war one generation later. You clearly inject ideology of a wilsonian derivative into your proposed wartime and post-war decisions. There will never be a world government in the near future. Any near-future world war would provide a catalyst for a disintegrative phase of world history, not an integrative one. As for the bombing of japan and its post-war memory it was the boomers and later generations that regretted the use of nukes, the GIs to this day overwhelmingly supported the bombing of Japan.
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 02-13-2015 at 11:40 PM.







Post#2087 at 02-14-2015 04:24 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
> Xenakis, your model has largely only been applicable to the
> mid-19th century and later. Only after the democratization of
> national aims which in wartime also means who controls and
> determines the war aims has the world largely had the pattern of
> smaller wars and peace during most of the interspersed with a
> large war every once in a while. Your notion that war veterans
> will always seek peace from whenever the war they fought in ended
> can be disproven easily. WW1 and WW2 occurred one generation
> between one another. Hitler and his top Nazis consisted almost
> entirely of individuals who fought in the worst of the fighting
> conditions of WW1, yet they planned and initiated a even worse war
> one generation later. You clearly inject ideology of a wilsonian
> derivative into your proposed wartime and post-war
> decisions. There will never be a world government in the near
> future. Any near-future world war would provide a catalyst for a
> disintegrative phase of world history, not an integrative one. As
> for the bombing of japan and its post-war memory it was the
> boomers and later generations that regretted the use of nukes, the
> GIs to this day overwhelmingly supported the bombing of
> Japan.

Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
> WW1 and WW2 occurred one generation between one another. Hitler
> and his top Nazis consisted almost entirely of individuals who
> fought in the worst of the fighting conditions of WW1, yet they
> planned and initiated a even worse war one generation
> later.
Truly amazing. You've been a member of Fourth Turning forum for
almost ten years, and you still don't have the vaguest clue what the
difference is between a crisis war (WW2) and a non-crisis war (WW1).







Post#2088 at 02-14-2015 10:32 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
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15-Feb-15 World View -- Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks

*** 15-Feb-15 World View -- Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Nigeria requests US troops to fight Boko Haram
  • Debka: Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks


****
**** Nigeria requests US troops to fight Boko Haram
****



Goodluck Jonathan on Friday (WSJ)

Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan on Friday said in an interview
that he wants the U.S. to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram. In the past,
Jonathan has rejected the idea of foreign troops on Nigeria's soil,
but now he noted that U.S. troops are fighting the Islamic State / of
Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and has apparently has changed his
mind:

<QUOTE>"Are they not fighting ISIS? Why can't they come to
Nigeria? They are our friends. If Nigeria has a problem, then I
expect the US to come and assist us."<END QUOTE>

However, Pentagon spokesman Rear-Admiral John Kirby said, "I can tell
you that there are no plans as I speak here to send unilaterally, to
send or to add US troops into Nigeria. There are no US troops
operating in Nigeria."

This reminds me of the situation involving the Darfur war during the
George Bush administration. In 2004, "peace activist" Jesse Jackson
condemned President Bush for sending troops to the Iraq war, but
called on Bush to lead a worldwide effort to send troops to Darfur.
He said, "If we can have troops in
Korea, in Nato, there should be nothing shameful about defending life
in Africa."

In 2007, then-Senator Joe Biden criticized President Bush continuing
to be involved in Iraq, but for not getting involved Darfur
:

<QUOTE>"The conduct of this [Iraq] war has so badly damaged
our readiness; the conduct of this war and the blood and resources
we've had to expend has limited our credibility around the world,
and limited our flexibility in terms of the use of force. Here we
are - we could end the carnage in Darfur tomorrow."<END QUOTE>

This statement came shortly after he demanded that American troops be
sent to Darfur:

<QUOTE>"I would use American force now. I think it's not
only time not to take force off the table. I think it's time to
put force on the table and use it. ... Let's stop the bleeding. I
think it's a moral imperative."<END QUOTE>

Other "peace activists" at the time were more explicit in saying that
President Bush was willing to send troops to help white people, but
not to send black people in Africa. Susan Rice, the current National
Security Advisor, was particularly vocal in demands to send troops to
Darfur.

So let's see if anyone asks this administration why they're willing to
fight terrorists in Iraq and Syria killing white people, but not
willing to fight terrorists in Nigeria killing black people. Naij.com (Nigeria) and AFP

****
**** Debka: Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks
****


Following the capture and murder of the Jordanian pilot by the Islamic
State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), the Arab nations that
were announced to be part of the US administration's anti-ISIS
coalition have been dropping out. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have
dropped out of the coalition completely. There is absolutely no
chance that Egypt will join the coalition, as had originally been
hoped. United Arab Emirates (UAE) has partially remained in the
coalition.

The latest edition of Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me
by a subscriber), contains a detailed analysis of the US anti-ISIS
strategy, based on its own intelligence sources. I like to reference
Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable insights into what's
going on, but it's written from Israel's point of view, and sometimes
gets things wrong.

According to the analysis, Obama is taking every step possible to
avoid being drawn into another Iraq war. While he's criticized for
having no strategy, he actually does have a strategy: to "dump that
war in Iran's lap" by using the nuclear weapons talks to draw Iran
into fighting ISIS instead of us.

Here's an outline of the analysis:

  • With the international coalition on ISIS shrinking, the
    U.S. "bulldozed" UAE to contribute to the coalition by sending a
    squadron of 16 F-16 fighters to Jordan, to make air strikes in Syria.
    All of Jordan's and UAE's air strikes are accompanied by U.S. F-22
    Raptor stealth fighters for protection from ISIS ground fire. The
    coalition "war on ISIS" is treading water, accomplishing nothing but
    rhetoric.
  • President Obama has undertaken "a delicate, high-wire gambit" for
    dealing with ISIS. Rather than allowing US ground forces, Obama is
    attempting to get Iran to do the "heavy lifting" in fighting ISIS, in
    return for giving Iran increased leeway in developing its nuclear
    capabilities, while reducing the sanctions.
  • Obama is giving Iran maximum freedom to move in Iraq, Syria and
    Yemen, so that Iran will be drawn into war with ISIS, theoretically
    without U.S. involvement. In particular, Obama has made a deal with
    Iran not to impede the Houthi takeover of Yemen. Iran has recently
    been bragging that it has control of four major Mideast capital cities
    -- Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and Sanaa, in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and
    Yemen, respectively, and Obama is letting Iran establish those
    strongholds without hindrance.
  • Obama's relationship with Egypt is in a complete deep-freeze,
    where even vestigial day-to-day military ties, including intelligence
    sharing, have been shut down. Obama's relationship with Israel is
    almost as bad. But Egypt and Israel are collaborating at the highest
    level, particularly in missile and air strikes against terrorists in
    Sinai. Aside from the U.S., Israel is the only Middle East power
    engaging in drone warfare against Islamic terrorists. Israel is
    supplying the advanced intelligence technology that Egypt lacks, and
    is required to support air strikes against terrorists in Sinai.
  • However, Egypt has had no success in shutting down the smuggling
    routes from Libya, used to transfer weapons from Libya to Syria, Iraq,
    Jordan and Sinai. The Egypt-Libya border is becoming completely
    lawless, like Sinai.
  • Saudi Arabia's new King Salman is shoring up Saudi Arabia's
    relationship with Pakistan. Since 1999, the two governments entered
    into an unwritten agreement for Riyadh to fund large sections of
    Pakistan's military nuclear program, in return for which Pakistan
    would make nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles available to
    the Saudis if a strategic need arose. The Saudi-Pakistan connection
    may jeopardize Obama's plans with Iran.
  • The Saudis are funding Egypt's purchase of military jets and
    missiles from France. Since a squadron of French fighter jets is
    based in Saudi Arabia and France maintains air and sea bases in the
    UAE, the arms deal would propel Egypt into integration in the
    French-Saudi-UAE defense alliance.


Long-time readers are aware that ten years ago I wrote, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would become America's ally
as the generation of survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution
died off, and that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would be allied with
China against us. Ten years ago, that prediction seemed insane. So
it's been fascinating and astonishing, in the last two years, to see
that prediction come closer to reality every week.

This is a good time to repeat something I've written about
several times. There is no doubt in my
mind that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Iran was attacked with
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in 1988 by Iraq, and Iran would
already have developed nuclear weapons if Saddam Hussein hadn't been
expelled by the Iraq war in 2003. Iran sees itself surrounded by
potential enemies, Pakistan and Israel, both having nuclear weapons.
For Iran, developing nuclear weapons is an existential issue.

However, as I've described before, Iran takes an enormous amount of
pride in not having invaded other countries, even though other
countries have invaded Iran. If you look back at Iran's major wars of
the last century -- the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09,
the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, Iran never attacked anyone else. This is now part of Iran's
DNA, and even the top leadership would be repulsed by the idea of a
preemptive attack on Israel.

So my conclusion is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons as a
defensive measure, but has no plans at all to use them on Israel,
which is what is widely believed. Guardian (London) and Debka



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Goodluck Jonathan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
John Kirby, Jesse Jackson, Joe Biden, Iraq, Darfur,
Jordan, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait,
Egypt, Sinai, Libya, Iran, France, Pakistan

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Post#2089 at 02-15-2015 11:56 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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16-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptics

*** 16-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya
  • Egypt purchases fighter jets over fears of militias in Libya
  • Yemen may form second government in Aden


****
**** Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya
****



Screen grab from terrorist recruiting and public relations video showing Egyptian Coptic Christian fishermen just prior to beheading

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has called a national
security emergency and declared seven days of national mourning, after
a terrorist group released a video showing the beheading in Libya of
Egyptian Coptic Christians. The video was released on a web site
belonging to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). The people shown were among 27 Egyptian Coptic Christian
workers who were kidnapped in the Libyan city of Sirte in December and
January.

The beheading video comes two days after an ISIS online magazine
display pictures of 21 hostages, accompanied by the text:

<QUOTE>"This month, the soldiers of the Khilafah in Wilayat
Tarabulus [Caliphate State Tripolitania] captured 21 Coptic
crusaders, almost five years after the blessed operation against
the Baghdad church executed in revenge for Kamilia Shehata, Wafa
Constantine, and other sisters who were tortured and murdered by
the Coptic Church of Egypt."<END QUOTE>

Apparently, Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus is the renamed version of
the terror group Ansar al-Sharia, presumably renamed when it
repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and swore its allegiance to
ISIS.

The "blessed operation" apparently refers to the October 2010 bombing
of a Catholic Church in Baghdad. The "other sisters" apparently
refers to unsubstantiated claims that Egyptian Christian women who
converted to Islam were tortured and killed by the Coptic Orthodox
Church.

Last year, there were an estimated one million Egyptian guest workers
in Libya, but the numbers have shrunk considerably since civil war
broke out last summer between the Libya Dawn government in Tripoli and
the internationally recognized Libyan government which has fled to
Tobruk. The 21 hostages have been identified as fishermen from an
impoverished village in northern Egypt. Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and Guardian (London)

****
**** Egypt purchases fighter jets over fears of militias in Libya
****


Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday vowed to choose
the "necessary means and timing to avenge the criminal killings," for
the murder of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians by an ISIS-linked militia
in Libya, but military action in Libya has been considered for some
time. The murder is increasing public pressure on al-Sisi to take
some action to counter the increasing security threats from jihadist
militias in Libya. Egypt has in the past denied that it had taken
part in airstrikes in Libya, and said that no airstrikes are planned.
It now appears that airstrikes are on the table, though ground troops
are apparently not being considered at this time. The border between
Egypt and Libya has become almost lawless, and cross-border attacks
into Egypt have become common.

On Thursday, Egypt announced that it will sign on Monday a $5.7
billion deal to purchase 24 Dassault Aviation Rafale fighter jets, a
naval frigate and related military equipment from France. The
purchase will be partially funded by France and by an Arab country,
either United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia. Egypt is no longer
receiving military aid from the United States, as the Obama
administration cut it off after the 2013 coup that deposed president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government.

Libya itself is almost in total chaos, with two different
governments. The government in the west is Libya Dawn, with Islamists
and militia from the Misrata region, in control of the capital city
Tripoli. The second government is the internationally recognized
government, which was forced to flee to Tobruk in the east. The
al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Ansar al-Sharia, has been operating
in Libya with headquarters in Benghazi, where it was responsible for
the attack that killed American ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in
2012. However, based on Sunday's news reports, it appears that Ansar
al-Sharia is no longer allied with al-Qaeda, and has now pledged
itself to ISIS and renamed itself Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus
[Caliphate State Tripolitania].

Egypt is facing increasing threats from ISIS-linked militants. There
have been other abductions of Egyptian workers by Libyan militias. In
the Sinai, along the border with Gaza and Israel, there have been a
series of terrorist attacks. There have been recent reports that
Israel and Egypt and planning joint military operations to target
terrorists in Sinai. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and France 24 and Debka

****
**** Yemen may form second government in Aden
****


The governments of three Yemen provinces, Aden, Lahij, and Mahra, met
in Aden on Sunday to discuss the situation following the government
takeover last month by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis of Yemen's
government in Sanaa. The leaders of the three provinces announced
that they support the country becoming a federation as discussed at
meetings last year. They called for the reinstatement of the president
and for the militia to step down.

Yemen seems to be going down the same road as Libya, with the
possibility of two governments -- a rebel government in the capital
city Sanaa, and an internationally recognized government in Aden.
There's the additional complication that Yemen is the headquarters of
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which may either fight with
or try to control a second government in Aden.

Also on Sunday, the UN Security Council prepared to adopt a
resolution calling on the Houthis to step aside or "face
consequences." The Security Council resolution is being supported by
the Arab League and by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). According
to a GCC statement, "In the case of failure to reach an agreement
... the GCC member states will take measures which enable them to
maintain their vital interests in the security and stability of
Yemen."

However, a Houthi spokesman responded to the GCC's comments, calling
them "provocative blackmail": "The Yemeni people won’t cede power in
the face of threats." Arab News and
The National (UAE)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Libya, Sirte, Coptic Christians, Ansar al-Sharia,
Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus, Caliphate State Tripolitania,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Muammar Gaddafi, Libya Dawn, Misrata, Tobruk, Benghazi,
France, Dassault Aviation Rafale, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Yemen, Aden, Lahij, Mahra,
Houthis, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Security Council, Arab League, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC

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Post#2090 at 02-16-2015 10:28 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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ISIS. Pure evil.

One of the marks of evil is the lack of limits on revenge. A prime illustration of the difference: Women and children of German soldiers were safe from the French Resistance. The Nazis frequently called for a 100-to-1 ratio of hostages to victims.

One can target evil-doers for specific violations of normal expectations of human decency. If such is not revenge, then at the least it implies that someone who does evil is likely to do more of it. So should the killers of hostages end up in American hands, some harsh punishment is appropriate.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#2091 at 02-16-2015 05:15 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 14-Feb-15 World View -- Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden
  • What's the value of a human life?
  • Generational Dynamics and prolactin


****
**** Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden
****



Aftermath of the bombing of Dresden, February 1945

On Thursday, 10,000 people joined hands along the Elbe river
commemorating the tens of thousands of people who were burned alive on
February 13, 1945, when the Allies firebombed Dresden. In the space
of 23 minutes, hundreds of bombers dropped some 3,000 high-explosive
bombs and 400,000 incendiary bombs. The city center was vaporized.
The fires sucked up all the oxygen, so that those who weren't burned
to death dies of suffocation. The fires could be seen 200 miles away,
and the temperatures reached so high that glass melted in cellars.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the firebombing of
Dresden is looked at as part of the "explosive climax" of a
generational crisis war. Non-crisis wars almost always end
indecisively, as in the case of America's Korean and Iraq wars. (The
Vietnam war ended decisively as a victory for Vietnam because,
although it was a non-crisis war for America, it a crisis war for
Vietnam.)

There are many events that contributed to the explosive climax
of World War II, but the following three are perhaps the
best-known:

  • The landing at Normandy beach, where tens of thousands
    of American soldiers were shot down like fish in a barrel.
  • The firebombing of Dresden, where tens of thousands of people
    were burned alive.
  • The nuclear bombing of Japanese cities.


What these three events have in common is that they illustrate
something that happens in a crisis war that doesn't happen in a
non-crisis war: As the war approaches an end, the value of an
individual human live drops to zero, and the only thing of value is
the survival of the entire society and its way of life.

This happens to every society, every nation, without exception at the
climax of a generational crisis war. When a society becomes desperate
enough, they will take steps so horrible that the traumatized
survivors will spend the rest of their lives feeling guilty about them
and perhaps even regretting them, while the younger generation growing
up later will have no such regrets. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and BBC

****
**** What's the value of a human life?
****


I wrote about this a lot when the Sri Lanka civil war was approaching
a climax in 2009. The civil war had been going on over two decades,
and as far as I know, every analyst and journalist in the world was
predicting that the war would continue for many more years. However,
in January 2008 something changed that made it clear from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics that this war had transitioned into a
generational crisis war that would soon reach a climax. As I wrote at
that time (see "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels"
),
the army suddenly committed itself to defeating the LTTE (Tamil
rebels) by the end of 2008.
<QUOTE>"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning
point once we are able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate
in bunkers and forward defense lines."<END QUOTE>

What followed during the next year was very dramatic. The LTTE
purposely embedded itself in the civilian population, so that the army
could not attack them without killing civilians. The army ferociously
attacked the LTTE, even when civilian lives were at stake. What
happened was that the value of a civilian life had dropped to zero for
both the army and the LTTE, and the only thing of value was victory.

Today, there are calls for the Sri Lankan army to be charged with war
crimes, to which my response is that if Sri Lanka is a war crime, then
the firebombing of Dresden is also a war crime -- something that some
German activists would agree with.

Regular readers of this daily Generational Dynamics World View article
may wonder how I select topics and what things I look for. In my
mind, I'm constantly trying to measure how much the value of an
individual human life has become, and I tend to choose stories that
indicate either that the value remains high or that the value is going
lower. So, for example, yesterday's story on Europe's search and rescue program
for migrants crossing
from Libya to reach Italy is really a story about how important it
still is to Europeans whether desperate refugees drown in the
Mediterranean Sea.

Obviously the most recent examples where the value of a human life is
zero is terror attacks by the likes of Boko Haram, ISIS, al-Qaeda and
the Taliban. Even within that domain, there are differences. The
Charlie Hebdo bombing in Paris was bad, but not as bad as the
slaughter of 2000 people by Boko Haram that was occurring in the same
time frame. ( "10-Jan-15 World View -- Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre"
)

And it's not always Muslims who are the perpetrators. In "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
, I wrote about
the wild, frenzied attack by Buddhists on Muslims that killed dozens
and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims,
including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. In that
article, I compared the slaughter to 1938's Kristallnacht, which was a
prelude to the Nazi Holocaust.

I've written several times
about
the Central African Republic and its generational crisis war currently
in progress between the Muslim tribes and the Christian tribes. Both
sides are committing atrocities, and this war will not end until
there's been an explosive climax that all survivors will regret for
the rest of their lives.

A reader recently wrote and asked me:
<QUOTE>"John: Which country will be the first to use a
nuclear weapon?"<END QUOTE>

That's an interesting question whose answer cannot be predicted. The
countries with nuclear weapons are: US, Russia, UK, France, China,
Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea. Once the world war starts, any
one of these countries might be the first, if the people in that
country panic and decide that nothing is more important than victory.
By the climax of the war, every one of those countries will have
reached that conclusion, and every nuclear weapon will have been used.
My estimate is that by the time the war ends, some 3 billion people
will have been killed, leaving about 4 billion people to rebuild the
world. At that time, the survivors will vow never to let anything
like that ever happen again, and will take all the steps they
can think of to keep that vow.

****
**** Generational Dynamics and prolactin
****


The discussion above of nuclear weapons is the kind of article that
divides people. I've often been puzzled by other people's reactions
to my web site. Some want to read it every day, others absolutely
can't stand it, and can't stand me as a result. Ten years ago,
friends I've known for years treated me as a harmless kook, but now,
as the world worsens and one generational theory prediction after
another has come true, those friends now shun me. This is similar to
the mythical Cassandra, whom I've written about many time. I've also
been puzzled why, after 12 years, there's no other web site in the
world like mine.

A couple of weeks ago, I heard something that provided some insight.
There was a BBC World Service show called "Why Factor," with the
subject "Sad/Gloomy Music." It turns out that some people can listen
to sad music and really enjoy it, while other people listen to sad
music and absolutely can't stand it.

This observation seemed stunningly similar to the reactions to my
World View articles and my web site.

The only "happy" music sample they played during the show was "The
Beatles - I Want to Hold your Hand." They played samples of a number
of "sad" music songs:

Billie Holiday - Gloomy Sunday
James Taylor - Riding on a Railroad
Joni Mitchell - River
Kylie Minogue - Can't Get You Out of My Head
Johann Sebastian Bach - Prelude in B minor, number 24
Mikhail Ivanovich Glinka - La Separation
Felix Mikhailovich Blumenfeld - Etude Sur Mer
Arvo Pärt - Spiegel Im Spiegel
Djivan Gasparyan - I Am Outcast By You
The Rankin Family - Chi Mi Na Morbheanna
Oliver Mtukudzi - Neria
Víctor Jara - Te Recuerdo Amanda
M.R Shajarian - Rain
Chris Isaak - Wicked Games
Samuel Barber - Adagio for Strings

According to the show, the last in this list is the most popular
sad song among the show's listeners.

The show described the differences in chord structure between happy
and sad music, but unfortunately I know nothing about music and didn't
understand, which is too bad.

However, according to the BBC show, the differences in music are also
generational: In the 1960s (the generational Awakening era), most
popular music had the "happy" chord structure, while in the 2000s (the
generational Crisis era), most popular music has the "sad" chord
structure.

This opened my eyes to a whole new slant on the generational changes
in music. In my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X"
,
I wrote about the generational changes in the lyrics of music since
World War II, and I quoted some Gen-X lyrics, such as the song
"Mr. Self Destruct" by Nine Inch Nails.

However, the concept that there are "happy chords" and "sad chords"
and that they differ by generations goes beyond lyrics and was quite
new to me.

One personal note: For my whole life, I've always loved Great Band Era
music, 1935-45, and I still have a large record collection of Great
Band Era songs. I'm going to guess that most Great Band Era music had
the "sad" chord structure, and I'm going to guess that that's the
reason I like it a lot more than most popular music, and I'm going to
guess that my enjoyment of Great Band Era music is related to my being
able to do this World View article every day. I also love original
cast recordings from the 1930s-50s, and the reason may be the same.

Returning to the BBC program, there's a theory having to do with the
hormone prolactin. Prolactin has to do with milk production in
pregnant women, and has no known normal function in men. However,
according to the show, there's some research that men and women who
like sad music have an excess of prolactin, and those who hate sad
music don't have enough prolactin. So maybe what makes me unique is
that my blood is overflowing with prolactin. And also, maybe the
people who read my World View articles have more prolactin than
average, and those who can't stand them have less.

According to Prof David Huron of Ohio State University, quoted in the
program:
<QUOTE>"The research shows that for ordinary sadness, when
we're in that state, we are our most deadly realistic in our
self-appraisal. It has beneficial effects on judgment, on memory,
all sorts of cognitive benefits that happen from being in a
saddened state."<END QUOTE>

Since the World View articles are most "deadly realistic" analyses
around, then this is the theory how I can write these articles every
day: I have a good analytical ability, I have just the right
education, and, most important, I have too much prolactin in my blood.
If this theory is true then, Dear Reader, that's why I'm able to write
these articles every day. And for similar reasons, that's why you
read them every day.

Here's a comment from a reader:
<QUOTE>"I have a sister who sees the world through rose
colored glasses. I have ceased to attempt to give her insight, or
guidance into where we are headed. She prefers, in spite of
overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to see the world as a
"nice" place, where someone will always arrive in time to save
her, and those she cares about, from evil."<END QUOTE>

My suggestion: Both of you should be tested for prolactin levels.

BBC World Service - Why Factor - Sad Music and Podcast (mp3)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Dresden, Normandy, Japan,
Sri Lanka, Tamil Tigers, Boko Haram, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Taliban,
Myanmar, Burma, Kristallnacht, Central African Republic,
BBC World Service, Why Factor, prolactin, David Huron, Ohio State

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I raise a prolactin toast!







Post#2092 at 02-16-2015 05:22 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Well, Egypt are now a de facto coalition member.







Post#2093 at 02-16-2015 07:14 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
I raise a prolactin toast!

Drinks all around! Cheers!







Post#2094 at 02-16-2015 11:43 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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17-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt faces two-front war with airstrikes in Libya

*** 17-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt faces two-front war with airstrikes in Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Greece bailout talks collapse in acrimony
  • Egypt faces two-front war with airstrikes in Libya
  • Muslim versus Muslim wars in the Mideast continue to grow
  • Iraq army preparing to recapture Mosul from ISIS


****
**** Greece bailout talks collapse in acrimony
****



Greece's angry finance minister Yanis Varoufakis on Monday

A meeting on Monday in Brussels by the Eurogroup, the eurozone finance
ministers, which was intended to reach agreement on Greece's financial
crisis, ended hours earlier than usual in better acrimony.

Greece has been asking for a "bridge loan" -- enough money to survive
for six months, but without having to continue the harsh austerity
requirements that accompanied the 240 billion euros already loaned to
Greece in the bailout program. Europe has rejected this proposal, and
given Greece a "take it or leave it" ultimatum to extend the existing
bailout program. The European statement said the Greeks must continue
with austerity on "tax policy, privatization, labor market reforms,
financial sector and pensions." Indeed, any substantial change in
Europe's position would require a vote in the German, Dutch, Finnish
and Slovak parliaments.

Greece's new finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, from the radical
far-left Syriza party, made a bitter statement to the press referred
to the European proposal, "an extension of the current program," and
calling it "absurd and unreasonable." Indeed, any back-down by
Greece's newly elected government would cause a backlash in Greece's
public, and a sharp plunge in the new government's poll ratings.

Greece has only two weeks left to come to some agreement, before a
huge bond payment comes due. The Greek government is not allowed to
borrow money -- issue government bonds. The bailout funding has been
suspended, because the Greek government has said it no longer wants to
cooperating with the bailout program. The Greek government only has
tax revenues to live off of, which won't be enough to pay public
sector salaries, pay off pensions which the new government wants to
increase, and make debt payments. And Greece's banks are bleeding
deposits by two billion euros per week.

According to reports, Greece accepts 70% of the committed austerity
requirements, and rejects 30%, but hasn't revealed which requirements
are in each category. Some hope that this can form the basis for a
compromise.

The Eurogroup has given Greece a Friday deadline to agree to the
bailout requirements. The sides are headed for a collision, unless
they can quickly figure out a way to kick the can down the road.
Kathimerini (Athens) and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Egypt faces two-front war with airstrikes in Libya
****


Egypt's army announced on Monday morning that it has conducted air
strikes against militant targets in Libya, including training camps in
arms depots. The airstrikes were revenge attacks after a terror group
linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) released a video portraying the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christian fishermen
who had gone
to Libya to earn money to send back home. Egypt's president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi had on Sunday given a nationally televised address
wherein he vowed to choose the "necessary means and timing to avenge
the criminal killings."

Egypt is now facing a two-front war against terrorist groups linked to
ISIS. The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem -
Champions of Jerusalem) has conducted numerous attacks in Egypt's
Sinai, along the border with Israel and Gaza, and has recently changed
its name to "Sinai Province," meaning "Sinai Province of Islamic
State" when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its
allegiance to ISIS.

Libya's terror group Ansar al-Sharia has likewise renamed itself
Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus (Caliphate State Tripolitania) when it
repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to
ISIS.

Egypt is fighting ABM with ground troops is Sinai, and for that reason
it's believed that Egypt does not have the military resources to send
ground troops into Libya. For that reason, Egypt, France and Italy
are calling on the United States and the international community to
resume military action in Libya. Al Ahram (Cairo) and CNN

****
**** Muslim versus Muslim wars in the Mideast continue to grow
****


As I've been writing for weeks, there is a large and growing Muslim
versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia. The
Muslims are not at war with the West, as many claim, but they're
almost entirely at war with each other. This Muslim versus Muslim war
is going to continue to grow until the West is pulled into it, and
then the West WILL be at war with some Muslims, allied with others.

There is a tendency to view this situation as similar to the rise of
Hitler and the Nazis, with ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi taking on
the role of Hitler, commanding armies all over the Mideast. But
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not what's
going on.

Much (though not all) of the Muslim world is deep into a generational
Crisis era, with the last crisis being the collapse of the Ottoman
empire, followed by wars of consolidation in the 1920s-30s. Based on
historical research that I've been doing for years, countries and
societies suffer increasing societal breakdowns as the decades pass
since the end of the previous generational crisis war. The "Arab
Spring" that started in Tunisia in 2011 was the first major societal
breakdown in the Muslim world, and what we're seeing is an
increasing societal breakdown.

So, in my opinion, what we're seeing is not the formation of a unified
ISIS army waging war against other Muslims, at least not yet, but a
general societal breakdown where local, individual terror groups like
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis and Ansar al-Sharia find it convenient to declare
allegiance to ISIS for public relations purposes.

Ironically, instead of a unified ISIS army, what we may be seeing is
the mirror image. The "moderate" Arab nations have been notably
reluctant to take part in the U.S. anti-ISIS coalition. However, what
ISIS's public relations stunts have accomplished is an increased
realization of many Arab countries, including Jordan, United Arab
Emirates (UAE), and now Egypt, to understand that their national
security depends on fighting ISIS and terror groups linked to it.
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Independent (London)

****
**** Iraq army preparing to recapture Mosul from ISIS
****


Last June, when IS militias attacked Mosul, the Iraq army just dropped
its weapons and ran away. Now, according to prime minister Haider
al-Abadi, the Iraq army has been scoring successes, pushing back ISIS
from areas across Iraq, although ISIS still controls about a quarter
of Iraqi territory. According to Abadi, Iraq is planning an offensive
this year to recapture Mosul from ISIS. Although US ground troops
will not be needed, Abadi said the operation's success would also
hinge upon close co-ordination between Iraqi security forces, the US
military, and the Peshmerga. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, Eurogroup,
Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Libya, Sirte, Coptic Christians, Ansar al-Sharia,
Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus, Caliphate State Tripolitania,
Abu Omar al-Baghdad, Ottoman Empire, Tunisia,
Jordan, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Iraq, Haider al-Abadi, Mosul

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Post#2095 at 02-17-2015 12:16 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,016]
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I have my idea of who is dealing with ISIS in its 'business' deals -- crime syndicates such as the Russian Mafia.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#2096 at 02-17-2015 11:41 AM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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02-17-2015, 11:41 AM #2096
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
I have my idea of who is dealing with ISIS in its 'business' deals -- crime syndicates such as the Russian Mafia.
And the Mafiya is vastly intermingled with GRU, Spetsnaz, and, SVR. Which means, "Czar Vlad" is a sort of combination of a national leader and arch crime boss.







Post#2097 at 02-17-2015 11:31 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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02-17-2015, 11:31 PM #2097
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18-Feb-15 World View -- Russians ignore Ukraine 'ceasefire' as 5,000 Ukrainian troops

*** 18-Feb-15 World View -- Russians ignore Ukraine 'ceasefire' as 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Taliban claims responsibility for bombing in Lahore, Pakistan
  • Russians ignore Ukraine 'ceasefire' as 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped
  • New Zealand debating military help for Iraq against ISIS


****
**** Taliban claims responsibility for bombing in Lahore, Pakistan
****



Police rush an injured man to hospital after suicide bombing in Lahore on Tuesday (AP)

A suicide bomber detonated his bomb on Tuesday early afternoon in the
large east Pakistan city of Lahore, in Punjab province, killing as
many as 11 people, and injuring dozens more. The target was a police
station. The carnage could have been much worse, but the suicide
bomber was stopped by heavy security before entering the building.

Jamaatul Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban
(Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), has claimed responsibility. According to
the Jamaatul Ahrar spokesman, the attack was revenge for the
anti-Taliban military operations being conducted in Pakistan's tribal
areas, and for hangings of several convicted terrorists. The military
action was triggered by a massive terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport
in Karachi
last year in June. The hangings began after the horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school,
killing over 130 schoolchildren in December of last year.

Last Friday, Taliban militants stormed a Shia commemoration service,
killing as many as 21 Shia worshippers. Before that was a service in
Shikarpur, killing more than 60 people.

As we dwell on atrocities committed in the Mideast by terror groups
linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), it would be worthwhile to give an occasional thought to
Pakistan, where Taliban atrocities are almost a daily way of life.
Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)

****
**** Russians ignore Ukraine 'ceasefire' as 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped
****


A ceasefire agreement
was signed
in Minsk, Belarus, last week, but it's being openly ignored
by anti-government Russians who are advancing on the central
city of Debaltseve, where 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped.
The Russians are simply saying that the ceasefire doesn't
apply to them, and they're continuing warfare.

A good summary of the situation was provided on Tuesday by William
Taylor, former American ambassador to Ukraine, interview on the BBC.
He was asked whether the new Minsk ceasefire agreement is going to
hold (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"It doesn't look good at the moment. All is not lost,
it's still possible for the Minsk II agreement to be put into
effect, but it has to be put into effect by both sides.

The weapons were supposed to have been pulled back by now, well
out of range of each other's. This is a tragedy for the people in
the cities, tragedy for people who are living there, but it can be
resolved by adhering to this agreement.

[[Question: Would you point the finger of blame equally at the
rebels and the Ukrainian troops]]


I wouldn't. I would point the blame at the Russian troops who are
in eastern Ukraine. There may be rebels there, maybe Ukrainian
rebels are there, but there are Russian troops, and Russian
soldiers, and Russian units who are there, who are the principal
cause of this overall problem.

[[Question: When you look at what's happening, it looks as if
those troops have not even paid lip service to what was agreed in
Minsk. Did that take the West by surprise do you think?]]


I think it has. The rebels and the Russians who are there in the
Debaltseve have said that the Minsk agreement doesn't apply to
Debaltseve. Now, what does that mean? They're clearly in the
zone that both sides are supposed to pull back from. Of course
the Minsk agreement applies to Debaltseve, and of course they
should be pulling back, and the ceasefire should have gone into
effect."<END QUOTE>

It's worth repeating again that anything that's said by Russian
officials or Russian media is pretty much worthless. Last year,
Russia claimed they weren't invading Crimea, just as Russian troops
were invading Crimea. Russia claimed that they wouldn't annex Crimea,
just before they annexed Crimea, a clear violation of international
law. Russia claimed that there were no Russian troops in east Ukraine
at a time when Russian troops were entering east Ukraine. On
September 5, Russia signed an international peace agreement (the
"Minsk protocols") in which they committed to a political compromise
in east Ukraine, and then repeatedly violated their own agreement.
Now they've signed a new Minsk agreement on February 11, and are
simply ignoring it. Basically, anything that comes from Russian state
media or Russia's government should be considered to be a lie, and
should be discarded as worthless.

The concern now is that the ceasefire will unravel completely and lead
to increased violence, including a full-scale invasion by Russia.
Washington Post and Russia Today (12-Feb)

****
**** New Zealand debating military help for Iraq against ISIS
****


After an in-person invitation by Iraq's foreign minister Dr Ibrahim
al-Jaafari in a visit to Auckland, New Zealand foreign minister Murray
McCully said that plans were being discussed to send about 150 New
Zealand troops to Iraq to help train Iraq's army. The suggestion is
controversial, with some politicians questioning whether the Iraq army
can protect the NZ troops, while others wonder if NZ is getting into
"another Vietnam." TV New Zealand and Stuff (New Zealand)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Punjab, Lahore,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Karachi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Ukraine, Debaltseve, Minsk, Belarus,
William Taylor, Crimea,
New Zealand, Iraq, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Murray McCully, Vietnam

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Post#2098 at 02-18-2015 11:16 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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02-18-2015, 11:16 PM #2098
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19-Feb-15 World View -- China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'

*** 19-Feb-15 World View -- China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Anthem health insurance data breach puts millions of children at risk
  • Putin gloats over humiliating Russian victory over Ukraine
  • China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'


****
**** Anthem health insurance data breach puts millions of children at risk
****



Millions of children are at risk of identity theft because of the Anthem data breach

The consequences of the massive Anthem Inc data breach that we described two weeks ago
are increasingly
being seen as catastrophic. 80 million current and former customers
had their personal information compromised, including birthdates,
addresses, and social security numbers.

This is bad enough for adults, but there are millions of children
included in that theft. A child's identity can be stole as much
as an adult's can, and the child's family not even be aware for
several months.

Even worse, the stolen data will be valid for decades. Some hacker
group can use it to steal your child's identity next year, or five or
ten years from now.

Anthem is providing free identity theft protection, but only for two
years.

Any current or former customer of the following health plans is
potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue
Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and
Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore, Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.
Credit.com and CNBC
and Anthem Inc.

****
**** Putin gloats over humiliating Russian victory over Ukraine
****


The battle over the city Debaltseve in Ukraine, which we described yesterday,
has ended in
victory for Ukraine's rebels, backed by Russian army soldiers and
weapons, and a humiliating defeat for Ukraine's soldiers. The Russian
attack and subsequent victory was a violation of the the ceasefire
agreement that was signed last week by Russia's president Vladimir
Putin.

Putin gloated about the victory, saying:

<QUOTE>"Of course, it’s always bad to lose. Of course it’s
always a hardship when you lose to yesterday’s miners or
yesterday’s tractor drivers. But life is life. It’ll surely go
on."<END QUOTE>

He perhaps unintentionally implied that Russian army soldiers are
former miners and tractor drivers. At any rate, it now appears
clear that he never intended to honor the ceasefire which,
after all, is no surprise.

The capture of Debaltseve is an important strategic victory for the
Russians, in that it lies at several crossroads in east Ukraine, with
a rail line that links Debaltseve to Russia, and consolidates the
Russian invasion and capture of the entire region. According to
analysts, the fall of Debaltseve is both a military disaster and
political disaster Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko. He faced
massive domestic criticism for agreeing to the Minsk "peace agreement"
in the first place, for making painful compromises that ceded gains on
the ground to the Russians, and now the agreement turns out to be a
sham after all, with the Russians gaining consolidated control of a
large part of eastern Ukraine.

Few people believe that the Russian invasion is finished. BBC and Deutsche Welle and Fox News

****
**** China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'
****


As I've been describing for a couple of years, China has been using a
"salami-slicing" technique of using military force to annex one
portion after another of regions of the South China Sea historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines. China supports its military force by making unsupported
historical claims, and then refusing to defend them in the appropriate
United Nations tribunal, since they know they'll lose.

The salami-slicing technique is designed to take advantage of the
inherent weakness of democracies during generational Crisis eras. The
technique would not have worked as well, or at all, prior to 2000,
since the Silent generation survivors of World War II were still in
charge, and would not have been fooled or tolerated specious claims
like those that China is making about the South China Sea. Indeed,
all presidents since WW II have been guided by the Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial
today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small
military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end
up having an enormous conflict like World War II. In other words, the
Truman Doctrine could be said to be the antidote to the salami-slicing
strategy.

Every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to
and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to
completely repudiate the Truman Doctrine, even in the face of blatant
salami-slicing. And he's not alone, of course, as the entire West
is succumbing.

So we have China annexing one region after another in the South China
Sea, using as an excuse specious historical claims that the West is
unwilling to challenge. Russia invaded and annexed first Crimea and
now east Ukraine, using the specious excuse that there are ethnic
Russians living there. There are over a million Americans living in
Mexico, so under the Russian reasoning, America could invade and annex
the entire state of Nuevo León.

Probably the most visible and consequential repudiation of the Truman
Doctrine was President Obama's flip-flop on the question of Sarin gas
and other chemical weapons used by the regime of Syria's genocidal
president Bashar al-Assad against his own people. To this day, he's
killed countless innocent women and children with barrel bombs loaded
with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.

Now we have news on Thursday from Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy
to Syria, that al-Assad has agreed to a "freeze" in dropping barrel
bombs on the city of Aleppo. The "freeze" will take place some time
in the future, to be announced. Like China's specious historical
claims, like Russia's ethnic Russian excuse, al-Assad waves a sham
peace plan in front of the United Nations and everyone starts
tittering about a "ray of hope." This is another version of the
salami-slicing strategy, and it's possible in a generational Crisis
era.

There is a flaw in the salami-slicing strategy. Once a government
starts using it, they think they can use it over and over to get
away with anything. It's pretty clear that Russia, China and
Syria all believe that they can commit crimes with impunity.

But the flaw is that at some point it stops working. That's what
happened in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland. Hitler was certain that
he could take one more salami slice with impunity. But the British
population by that time had changed, and become sufficiently
nationalistic to refuse to be made fools of again.

I've been describing for years how one nation after another is
becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic in a generational
Crisis era. So you have two conflicting trends: the criminal nation
becomes increasingly brazen in using the salami-slicing strategy, and
the other nations become increasingly nationalistic and less tolerant.
At some point, these two trends collide, and there's a new world war
-- a war that might have been avoided if a policy like the Truman
Doctrine had been continued -- or was even still possible. International Living and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Anthem health insurance,
Russia, Ukraine, Debaltseve, Minsk, Belarus, Crimea,
Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko,
China, Russia, Syria, salami-slicing strategy,
Hitler, Nazi Germany, Poland, Britain

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Post#2099 at 02-19-2015 12:05 AM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
---
02-19-2015, 12:05 AM #2099
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 19-Feb-15 World View -- China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Anthem health insurance data breach puts millions of children at risk
  • Putin gloats over humiliating Russian victory over Ukraine
  • China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'


****
**** Anthem health insurance data breach puts millions of children at risk
****



Millions of children are at risk of identity theft because of the Anthem data breach

The consequences of the massive Anthem Inc data breach that we described two weeks ago
are increasingly
being seen as catastrophic. 80 million current and former customers
had their personal information compromised, including birthdates,
addresses, and social security numbers.

This is bad enough for adults, but there are millions of children
included in that theft. A child's identity can be stole as much
as an adult's can, and the child's family not even be aware for
several months.

Even worse, the stolen data will be valid for decades. Some hacker
group can use it to steal your child's identity next year, or five or
ten years from now.

Anthem is providing free identity theft protection, but only for two
years.

Any current or former customer of the following health plans is
potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue
Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and
Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore, Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.
Credit.com and CNBC
and Anthem Inc.

****
**** Putin gloats over humiliating Russian victory over Ukraine
****


The battle over the city Debaltseve in Ukraine, which we described yesterday,
has ended in
victory for Ukraine's rebels, backed by Russian army soldiers and
weapons, and a humiliating defeat for Ukraine's soldiers. The Russian
attack and subsequent victory was a violation of the the ceasefire
agreement that was signed last week by Russia's president Vladimir
Putin.

Putin gloated about the victory, saying:
<QUOTE>"Of course, it’s always bad to lose. Of course it’s
always a hardship when you lose to yesterday’s miners or
yesterday’s tractor drivers. But life is life. It’ll surely go
on."<END QUOTE>

He perhaps unintentionally implied that Russian army soldiers are
former miners and tractor drivers. At any rate, it now appears
clear that he never intended to honor the ceasefire which,
after all, is no surprise.

The capture of Debaltseve is an important strategic victory for the
Russians, in that it lies at several crossroads in east Ukraine, with
a rail line that links Debaltseve to Russia, and consolidates the
Russian invasion and capture of the entire region. According to
analysts, the fall of Debaltseve is both a military disaster and
political disaster Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko. He faced
massive domestic criticism for agreeing to the Minsk "peace agreement"
in the first place, for making painful compromises that ceded gains on
the ground to the Russians, and now the agreement turns out to be a
sham after all, with the Russians gaining consolidated control of a
large part of eastern Ukraine.

Few people believe that the Russian invasion is finished. BBC and Deutsche Welle and Fox News

****
**** China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'
****


As I've been describing for a couple of years, China has been using a
"salami-slicing" technique of using military force to annex one
portion after another of regions of the South China Sea historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines. China supports its military force by making unsupported
historical claims, and then refusing to defend them in the appropriate
United Nations tribunal, since they know they'll lose.

The salami-slicing technique is designed to take advantage of the
inherent weakness of democracies during generational Crisis eras. The
technique would not have worked as well, or at all, prior to 2000,
since the Silent generation survivors of World War II were still in
charge, and would not have been fooled or tolerated specious claims
like those that China is making about the South China Sea. Indeed,
all presidents since WW II have been guided by the Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial
today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small
military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end
up having an enormous conflict like World War II. In other words, the
Truman Doctrine could be said to be the antidote to the salami-slicing
strategy.

Every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to
and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to
completely repudiate the Truman Doctrine, even in the face of blatant
salami-slicing. And he's not alone, of course, as the entire West
is succumbing.

So we have China annexing one region after another in the South China
Sea, using as an excuse specious historical claims that the West is
unwilling to challenge. Russia invaded and annexed first Crimea and
now east Ukraine, using the specious excuse that there are ethnic
Russians living there. There are over a million Americans living in
Mexico, so under the Russian reasoning, America could invade and annex
the entire state of Nuevo León.

Probably the most visible and consequential repudiation of the Truman
Doctrine was President Obama's flip-flop on the question of Sarin gas
and other chemical weapons used by the regime of Syria's genocidal
president Bashar al-Assad against his own people. To this day, he's
killed countless innocent women and children with barrel bombs loaded
with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.

Now we have news on Thursday from Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy
to Syria, that al-Assad has agreed to a "freeze" in dropping barrel
bombs on the city of Aleppo. The "freeze" will take place some time
in the future, to be announced. Like China's specious historical
claims, like Russia's ethnic Russian excuse, al-Assad waves a sham
peace plan in front of the United Nations and everyone starts
tittering about a "ray of hope." This is another version of the
salami-slicing strategy, and it's possible in a generational Crisis
era.

There is a flaw in the salami-slicing strategy. Once a government
starts using it, they think they can use it over and over to get
away with anything. It's pretty clear that Russia, China and
Syria all believe that they can commit crimes with impunity.

But the flaw is that at some point it stops working. That's what
happened in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland. Hitler was certain that
he could take one more salami slice with impunity. But the British
population by that time had changed, and become sufficiently
nationalistic to refuse to be made fools of again.

I've been describing for years how one nation after another is
becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic in a generational
Crisis era. So you have two conflicting trends: the criminal nation
becomes increasingly brazen in using the salami-slicing strategy, and
the other nations become increasingly nationalistic and less tolerant.
At some point, these two trends collide, and there's a new world war
-- a war that might have been avoided if a policy like the Truman
Doctrine had been continued -- or was even still possible. International Living and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Anthem health insurance,
Russia, Ukraine, Debaltseve, Minsk, Belarus, Crimea,
Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko,
China, Russia, Syria, salami-slicing strategy,
Hitler, Nazi Germany, Poland, Britain

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The Truman Doctrine is like Earthquake Insurance. As insurance goes, the premiums tend to be on the expensive side. Over time, people lose their discipline and question the costs. Of course, the cost of the insurance is less than the cost of the property protected, even over time. But it is tough to stay engaged, protecting oneself against a threat that is infrequent in nature but brutal in its deliverance.







Post#2100 at 02-19-2015 11:39 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
---
02-19-2015, 11:39 PM #2100
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Location
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20-Feb-15 World View -- Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma

*** 20-Feb-15 World View -- Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Greece and Germany are eyeball to eyeball on bailout crisis
  • Libya chaos threatens to reopen bitter rift between Qatar and Egypt
  • Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)


****
**** Greece and Germany are eyeball to eyeball on bailout crisis
****



Grumpy German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble on left, next to merry Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis

Here's a brief summary of Thursday's action in Greece's financial
crisis:

  • Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis formally requested
    a six-month extension of the loan agreement with Europe, asking Europe
    to provide enough cash to Greece to service debts and increase some
    welfare programs, but without asking Greece to impose further
    austerity requirements.
  • Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble firmly rejected the
    request, accusing Greece of pandering to voters. A German minister
    called it a "Trojan horse" designed to get money without having to
    reform the economy.
  • Greece's radical far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras said,
    "Tomorrow's Eurogroup [meeting] has just two choices: To accept or
    reject the Greek request. We will now discover who wants to find a
    solution, and who does not."
  • There was a phone call between Tsipras and German Chancellor
    Angela Merkel, which provided reporters with the obligatory "glimmer
    of hope."


The Eurogroup summit of eurozone finance ministers will meet in
emergency session on Friday to see if negotiations can yield a
compromise. Germany, Finland and Slovakia appear to be taking a hard
line towards Greece, while France and Italy appear to be more open to
compromise. If there is no compromise, then Greece will completely
run out of money sometime in March. Greek Reporter and Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini

****
**** Libya chaos threatens to reopen bitter rift between Qatar and Egypt
****


Last week's slaughter of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya by
ISIS-linked Ansar al-Sharia has resulted in a chain of events that led
Qatar to recall its ambassador to Egypt on Thursday, threatening to
reopen a very bitter rift in the Arab world that followed last
summer's Gaza war with Israel. The major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
, brought Israel
plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority into
alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus the Muslim
Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had been particularly
vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi,
but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and Qataris was
equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a mediator and was
able to paper over the differences and obtain a reconciliation in time
for an Arab summit meeting in December, but now King Abdullah has
passed away.

The split between Qatar and Egypt was too vitriolic never to
resurface, and now it's in danger to be doing so. The slaughter of
the Egyptian Coptics has caused nationalism to surge in Egypt,
resulting in an immediate decision by Egypt's president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi to launch airstrikes on Ansar al-Sharia camps and
weapons depots in Libya. Egypt says that its airstrikes were carried
out in coordination with Libya's air force.

Because Egypt is fighting a two-front war, against Ansar Bayt
al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) in north
Sinai and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya, both ISIS-linked, Egypt is
requesting international help in Libya.

The Arab League initially offered Egypt its full backing on the
airstrikes in Libya, saying that Egypt had the right to defend itself
and its citizens. But Qatar refused, and said it was concerned the
strikes could harm civilians and criticized Egypt for not consulting
with other Arab states before launching the airstrikes.

The furious Arab League delegate Tareq Adel from Egypt accused Qatar
of "supporting terrorism and deviating from the Arab consensus."
Qatar responded by withdrawing its ambassador from Cairo.

In an attempt to keep the rift from worsening, the head of Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations condemned Egypt's
comments as "baseless accusations that defy the truth and ignore the
sincere efforts made by the State of Qatar with GCC member states and
the Arab countries to combat terrorism and extremism at all levels."
AFP and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Cairo Post

****
**** Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)
****


Myanmar's president Thein Sein on Tuesday declared a state of
emergency and imposed martial law in the Kokang Special Region of
Burma, on the border with China. The Kokang people are ethnic Chinese
who even use a Chinese phone network and spend Chinese money in this
region. The Kokang Special Region was created in 1989 after the
collapse of Burma's Communist Party. In 2009, Burma's army intervened
to end the arms and drug-trafficking networks, forcing the corrupt
Kokang leader Pheung Kya-shin, born 1931, to flee across the border
into China with 30,000 refugees.

In late December, octogenarian Pheung made a surprise return from
China to the Kokang region, and triggered a major ethnic rebellion
that's resulted in the deaths of both Kokang people and Burmese
soldiers. That violence has continued, and is increasing, resulting
in this week's imposition of martial law throughout the region.

In 2007, at the height of the nationwide riots, I provided a
generational history of Burma back to the 1700s. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
) Since then,
Burma's army has loosened its grip on the country, allowing more
political freedom. But Burma's last crisis war was a bloody civil war
among ethnic groups, with intervention by the Chinese. That war
climaxed in 1958, meaning that Burma is now entering a new
generational Crisis era, so it's no surprise that there's a new
explosion of ethnic violence.

President Thein Sein is asking China's government to take steps to
keep the Kokang army from launching attacks on Burma from China's
soil, but China is not responding.

The major concern is that China's army will intervene on Burma's soil,
as it did during the 1950s civil war, using as an excuse the
protection of ethnic Chinese, the same excuse that Russia is using to
invade Ukraine. BBC and AFP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, Alexis Tsipras,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Angela Merkel,
Libya, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Ansar al-Sharia, Tareq Adel, Arab League,
China, Myanmar, Burma, Thein Sein, Kokang Special Region,
Pheung Kya-shin

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-----------------------------------------