Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 20-Feb-15 World View -- Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece and Germany are eyeball to eyeball on bailout crisis
• Libya chaos threatens to reopen bitter rift between Qatar and Egypt
• Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)

****
**** Greece and Germany are eyeball to eyeball on bailout crisis
****


Grumpy German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble on left, next to merry Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis

Here's a brief summary of Thursday's action in Greece's financial
crisis:

• Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis formally requested
  a six-month extension of the loan agreement with Europe, asking Europe
  to provide enough cash to Greece to service debts and increase some
  welfare programs, but without asking Greece to impose further
  austerity requirements.
• Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble firmly rejected the
  request, accusing Greece of pandering to voters. A German minister
  called it a "Trojan horse" designed to get money without having to
  reform the economy.
• Greece's radical far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras said,
  "Tomorrow's Eurogroup [meeting] has just two choices: To accept or
  reject the Greek request. We will now discover who wants to find a
  solution, and who does not."
• There was a phone call between Tsipras and German Chancellor
  Angela Merkel, which provided reporters with the obligatory "glimmer
  of hope."

The Eurogroup summit of eurozone finance ministers will meet in
emergency session on Friday to see if negotiations can yield a
compromise. Germany, Finland and Slovakia appear to be taking a hard
line towards Greece, while France and Italy appear to be more open to
compromise. If there is no compromise, then Greece will completely
run out of money sometime in March. Greek Reporter and Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini

****
**** Libya chaos threatens to reopen bitter rift between Qatar and Egypt
****

Last week's slaughter of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya by
ISIS-linked Ansar al-Sharia has resulted in a chain of events that led
Qatar to recall its ambassador to Egypt on Thursday, threatening to
reopen a very bitter rift in the Arab world that followed last
summer's Gaza war with Israel. The major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war
, brought Israel
plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority into
alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus the Muslim
Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had been particularly
vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi,
but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and Qataris was
equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a mediator and was
able to paper over the differences and obtain a reconciliation in time
for an Arab summit meeting in December, but now King Abdullah has
passed away.

The split between Qatar and Egypt was too vitriolic never to
resurface, and now it's in danger to be doing so. The slaughter of
the Egyptian Coptics has caused nationalism to surge in Egypt,
resulting in an immediate decision by Egypt's president Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi to launch airstrikes on Ansar al-Sharia camps and
weapons depots in Libya. Egypt says that its airstrikes were carried
out in coordination with Libya's air force.

Because Egypt is fighting a two-front war, against Ansar Bayt
al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) in north
Sinai and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya, both ISIS-linked, Egypt is
requesting international help in Libya.

The Arab League initially offered Egypt its full backing on the
airstrikes in Libya, saying that Egypt had the right to defend itself
and its citizens. But Qatar refused, and said it was concerned the
strikes could harm civilians and criticized Egypt for not consulting
with other Arab states before launching the airstrikes.

The furious Arab League delegate Tareq Adel from Egypt accused Qatar
of "supporting terrorism and deviating from the Arab consensus."
Qatar responded by withdrawing its ambassador from Cairo.

In an attempt to keep the rift from worsening, the head of Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations condemned Egypt's
comments as "baseless accusations that defy the truth and ignore the
sincere efforts made by the State of Qatar with GCC member states and
the Arab countries to combat terrorism and extremism at all levels."
AFP and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Cairo Post

****
**** Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)
****

Myanmar's president Thein Sein on Tuesday declared a state of
emergency and imposed martial law in the Kokang Special Region of
Burma, on the border with China. The Kokang people are ethnic Chinese
who even use a Chinese phone network and spend Chinese money in this
region. The Kokang Special Region was created in 1989 after the
collapse of Burma's Communist Party. In 2009, Burma's army intervened
to end the arms and drug-trafficking networks, forcing the corrupt
Kokang leader Pheung Kya-shin, born 1931, to flee across the border
into China with 30,000 refugees.

In late December, octogenarian Pheung made a surprise return from
China to the Kokang region, and triggered a major ethnic rebellion
that's resulted in the deaths of both Kokang people and Burmese
soldiers. That violence has continued, and is increasing, resulting
in this week's imposition of martial law throughout the region.

In 2007, at the height of the nationwide riots, I provided a
generational history of Burma back to the 1700s. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
) Since then,
Burma's army has loosened its grip on the country, allowing more
political freedom. But Burma's last crisis war was a bloody civil war
among ethnic groups, with intervention by the Chinese. That war
climaxed in 1958, meaning that Burma is now entering a new
generational Crisis era, so it's no surprise that there's a new
explosion of ethnic violence.

President Thein Sein is asking China's government to take steps to
keep the Kokang army from launching attacks on Burma from China's
soil, but China is not responding.

The major concern is that China's army will intervene on Burma's soil,
as it did during the 1950s civil war, using as an excuse the
protection of ethnic Chinese, the same excuse that Russia is using to
invade Ukraine. BBC and AFP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, Alexis Tsipras,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Angela Merkel,
Libya, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Ansar al-Sharia, Tareq Adel, Arab League,
China, Myanmar, Burma, Thein Sein, Kokang Special Region,
Pheung Kya-shin

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Interestingly, both China and Russia have had lots of involvement in military projects in Burma. The Russians have been helping the Burmese "civilian nuclear" program and meanwhile the Chinese have been helping to build airstrips capable of supporting Tu-95s, Tu-144s, and the various An transports. All of this is part of the SCO's march toward the Strait of Malacca and ultimately, Australia.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> Interestingly, both China and Russia have had lots of involvement
> in military projects in Burma. The Russians have been helping the
> Burmese "civilian nuclear" program and meanwhile the Chinese have
> been helping to build airstrips capable of supporting Tu-95s,
> Tu-144s, and the various An transports. All of this is part of the
> SCO's march toward the Strait of Malacca and ultimately,
> Australia.

China and Russia hate each other to the depths of their respective
cores.

The Chinese hate the West. The Russians love Europeans and Americans.

The only thing tying Russia and China together now is that they're
both criminal organizations annexing other countries' properties.

If I have to guess which way Burma will turn, it will be against
China.

*** 21-Feb-15 World View -- U.N. may release list of Syrian war criminals

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.N. may release list of Syrian war criminals
• Greece apparently caves in on bailout crisis

****
**** U.N. may release list of Syrian war criminals
****


Bashar al-Assad is thought to be on the United Nations list of Syrian war criminals

The investigators at the U.N. Commission for Inquiry on Syria
announced on Friday that there has been an 'exponential rise" in
atrocities killed in Syria, and that, because Russia's veto prevents
the Security Council from taking any action, they may go around the
Security Council and reveal a list of alleged war criminals in Syria.
The list is thought likely to contain the name of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad.

The Commission would have liked to refer the case to the International
Criminal Court (ICC), but that requires a vote of the Security
Council, which Russia always blocks with a veto. The Commission is
therefore recommending a special court without Security Council
approval.

United Nations investigators found a way to go around the Security
Council once before. After Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas to kill
hundreds of people in 2013, a U.N. chemical weapons team was
authorized to investigate the incident. However, thanks to a
threatened Russian veto, the U.N. team was forbidden from assigning
blame for the Sarin attack. But the team found a clever way of assigning blame without having to say it.
In their scientific analysis of the evidence, they included
calculations of the trajectories of the rockets that delivered the
Sarin gas. They drew no conclusions about where the rockets were
launched, but they provided enough scientific information within the
report so that experts studying the report could analyze the
trajectories to prove that the rockets must have been launched from a
Syrian Republican Guard unit.

Bashar al-Assad has been a modern day Hitler. He's flattened entire
Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by
sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed dozens with
sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel bombs loaded
with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition, he's used
electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on
tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength"
scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with encouragement
and support from Russia and Iran. Russia in particular has been
providing weapons to al-Assad to support his genocide, making Vladimir
Putin a war criminal as well.

If the war criminal list is made public, then it will be done at the
meeting of the UN Human Rights Council on March 17th. United Nations
and BBC and VOA

****
**** Greece apparently caves in on bailout crisis
****

The Eurogroup of eurozone financial ministers meeting in Brussels on
Friday announced a new deal with Greece that extends the bailout loan
agreement for four months. The agreement was an almost total cave-in
by the Greeks; however, there was one important concession: The Greeks
will not be required to have a higher government surplus in 2015 than
in 2014, which means that there will be no further austerity measures
imposed this year. Other than that, the terms of the agreement were
similar to those of Greece's previous government, and an abandonment
of the promises that the new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, made
during his recent election campaign.

The terms of the agreement are as follows:

• As a concession to Greece, the government surplus will
  this year will not have to be higher than last year.
  
• "The Greek authorities reiterate their unequivocal commitment to
  honor their financial obligations to all their creditors fully and
  timely."
  
• "The Greek authorities commit to refrain from any rollback of
  measures and unilateral changes to the policies and structural reforms
  that would negatively impact fiscal targets, economic recovery or
  financial stability, as assessed by the institutions."
  
• The Greeks must submit an Action Plan on Monday, February 23,
  based on the previously committed bailout agreement. The Action Plan
  will be reviewed at another emergency Eurogroup meeting to be held on
  Tuesday.
  
• The action plan must specify how Greece will implement the
  austerity requirements that they've previously committed to. This is
  a complete reversal of the promises that the Tsipras government made
  in order to get elected.
  
• The action plan must be approved by the Eurogroup.
  
• The action plan must be approved by Greece's parliament. There
  are concerns that there will be a political backlash among the Greek
  people, and in the worst case scenario his government may fall, and be
  replaced by something even worse.
  
• The action plan must be approved by the governments or parliaments
  of all 19 eurozone countries. That's going to take a lot of
  time.
  
• Therefore, Greece doesn't get money until April. However, will
  run out of money in March, so some additional change will be needed --
  either to provide an early loan, or to allow Greece's banks once again
  to borrow from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Remember when we used to talk about "kicking the can down the road"?
Amazingly enough, the Europeans have done it again.

If anything goes wrong with all of these steps, then the plan will
collapse, and Greece will go bankrupt, and probably be forced to leave
the eurozone, to return to its old drachma currency.

But if all goes well, then by April the crisis will be resolved.
Until June, when a new 3.5 billion euro debt payment comes due,
and the whole crisis starts all over again.

It's worth repeating what I've been saying for several years: There is
NO solution to this crisis. And by that I don't mean that no one has
been clever enough to figure out a solution. I mean that no solution
exists. So the only thing the Europeans can do is to keep postponing
the problem -- kicking the can down the road, allowing the crisis tow
orsen each time. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Sarin gas, Hitler,
U.N. Commission for Inquiry on Syria, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
UN Human Rights Council, International Criminal Court,
Greece, eurozone, Eurogroup, Alexis Tsipras

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*** 22-Feb-15 World View -- Yemen's president flees to Aden, calls Houthis 'illegitimate'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen's president flees to Aden, calls Houthis 'illegitimate'
• Nigeria's army recaptures Baga, site of 2,000 deaths in Boko Haram massacres

****
**** Yemen's president flees to Aden, calls Houthis 'illegitimate'
****


Anti-Houthi demonstrations in Sanaa on Saturday. The posters have pictures of Hadi (AFP)

Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Yemen's constitutional president, achieved a
colorful escape on Saturday from his Houthi captors in Sanaa, and fled
to his political stronghold in Aden, in south Yemen. From there, he
issued a statement declaring that all Houthi decisions made since the
September 21 coup were "null and illegitimate."

The 9/21 coup by the Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militias took control
of the ministerial government functions in Sanaa, and forced the Sunni
president Hadi to resign on January 21. It had been thought that the
Houthis wanted Hadi to stay in office, where he could be controlled by
the Houthis, who would then have the power but the not
responsibilities of governing. Hadi's resignation caused a power
vacuum that has never been filled. The Houthis arrested Hadi and kept
him prisoner in his home in Sanaa.

How did Hadi escape? It's already becoming an urban legend. One
story is that he covered himself in a head-to-toe Muslim woman's burka
that exposed only the eyes, and pretended to be a woman. Another
story is that he hid in the food truck when it came to deliver his
food for the day. Another was that the Houthis let him go as part of
a deal with the United Nations, which the U.N. denies.

From Aden, he issued a "presidential statement," implying that he's
retracting his resignation. He said that every Houthi decision and
appointment must be reversed, and that all people abducted or under
house arrest should be freed.

There are many questions about what Hadi is going to do next. Aden is
a Sunni stronghold, and one possibility is that he may declare Aden to
be the new capital of Yemen, and characterize Sanaa as a secessionist
capital, which would amount to a declaration of war between the Shia
Houthis and the Sunni militias supporting him.

Yemen is the home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Last
year, President Obama referred to Yemen as an administration success
story, since the military was successfully using drone missiles to
attack AQAP officials in cooperation with Yemen's government, but
without requiring US troops. Both the Houthis and Hadi are opposed to
AQAP, and two AQAP members were killed in a drone strike on Friday.
So apparently the drone strikes are continuing, which is kind of an
ironic twist. Still, Yemen began deteriorating last year soon after
President Obama's statement last year, and the deterioration is
continuing, with the possibility of war in sight, as part of the
general deterioration of the entire Mideast that we've been reporting
on. Yemen Online
and Military Times

****
**** Nigeria's army recaptures Baga, site of 2,000 deaths in Boko Haram massacres
****

Nigerian says that its army has recaptured the town of Baga from Boko
Haram terrorists after several days of fighting that resulted in
"heavy casualties." Baga was the site of a massive Boko Haram
massacre last month. ( "10-Jan-15 World View -- Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre"
)

According to the army, many Boko Haram militants had been killed,
with some of them drowning in Lake Chad as they tried to flee
from the approaching army.

Last month's massacre at Baga was almost completely ignored by the
international media when it occurred, while the murder in the same
time frame of a few white reporters in the Charlie Hebdo attack in
Paris received intense coverage around the world. Some political
analysts suggested that the NY Times, NBC News and Al Sharpton
consider a dead black person to be of no worth or interest whatsoever
unless killed by a white cop.

Early this month, Nigeria announced that the February 14 presidential
elections would be postponed until March 28 because of threats by Boko
Haram to disrupt the election to terrorist attacks. The political
opposition of the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, wondered why
the security threats would be any better on March 28, and accused the
government of postponing the election to give Jonathan time to fix the
election.

The recapture of Baga has a symbolic value, and the army will now
claim that it's a success that will make the March 28 election safer.

International assistance is increasingly flowing to Nigeria, Cameroon
and Chad to fight Boko Haram. On Saturday, a consignment of military
equipment from the United States military arrived in Cameroon.
BBC and
Osun Defender (Nigeria) and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi,
al-Houthis, Iran, Sanaa, Aden,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Baga, Goodluck Jonathan,
Cameroon, Chad

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*** 23-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt's al-Sisi calls for a joint Arab military force

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Deadly MERS virus surging early in Saudi Arabia
• India has worst H1N1 swine flu outbreak in years
• Egypt's al-Sisi calls for a joint Arab military force
• Armenia's president sends condolence letter to Egypt's al-Sisi

****
**** Deadly MERS virus surging early in Saudi Arabia
****


Pictogram: MERS health advisory (CDC)

World health officials are concerned about a new outbreak of MERS-CoV
(the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) in Saudi Arabia
that's killed 17 people in the last 11 days, including 6 on one day on
Thursday of last week. Although the outbreak is still small,
officials are concerned because it's surging much earlier this year
than last year. An international team of United Nations human and
animal health experts has flown to Saudi Arabia to investigate the
recent surge.

Since June 2012, the deadly virus has claimed 382 lives out of 899
infections. There are currently 29 people being treated at various
health facilities across the Kingdom.

Last year, there was a great deal of concern that MERS would be spread
around the world by millions of people who came to Mecca on October
2-7, 2014, for the Hajj, their once in a lifetime pilgrimage.
Saudi officials took numerous precautions, with the result that
apparently no new MERS cases occurred from the Hajj.

This year the Hajj is a little earlier, September 20-25, so all those
precautions will have to be repeated and increased. Arab News and
Reuters

****
**** India has worst H1N1 swine flu outbreak in years
****

This season's outbreak of H1N1 swine flu in India has so far sickened
more than 11,000 people, and killed 703, the worst outbreak since
2009. As of February 11, there were 5,157 reported cases, so the
number of reported cases more than doubled in 8 days. Times of India and Bloomberg

****
**** Egypt's al-Sisi calls for a joint Arab military force
****

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday have a nationwide
television address in which he called on all Arab nations to join
together to create a joint military force to fight terrorism.

This call comes a week after ISIS-linked terrorists posted a video of
the massacre of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in the town of Sirte in
neighboring Libya. "16-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya"
The attack itself was a shock to all of
Egypt, and triggered an immediate response ordered by al-Sisi for air
strikes on the assets of the terrorist group, Ansar al-Sharia, that
perpetrated the massacre.

Another shock occurred when Egypt received almost none of the
international sympathy that Jordan received after its pilot was killed
by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), with even the U.S. and European administrations cool to
Egypt's plight. Then Qatar criticized the Egyptian air strikes,
reopening the bitter rift between Egypt and Qatar,
and causing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to
side with Qatar in order to prevent the rift from worsening. It may
be that the only major power that sympathized with Egypt was Israel.

The chaos in Libya has the potential of further worsening the Arab
rift. There are two competing governments in Libya, one in Tripoli
considered to be Islamist, and one internationally recognized
government in Tobruk in the west. There have been reports, denied by
Qatar, that Qatar is siding with the Islamist government, and has been
supplying weapons to Ansar al-Sharia. Whether that's true or not, the
continuing deterioration in Libya is threatening to worsen an already
overwhelming situation with refugees crossing the Mediterranean for
Italy.

There have been unconfirmed reports in the past of discussions of a
military pact between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
and Kuwait. These discussions now appear to be on tract, with Jordan
and Algeria joining, and with France and Italy also joining, because
of the refugee danger to Europe. The National (UAE) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Armenia's president sends condolence letter to Egypt's al-Sisi
****

The President of the Republic of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan has sent a
letter of condolence to Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi.
The letter said, "During this difficult time of grief and sorrow, I
express my full support for you, the friendly people of Egypt and for
the relatives of the victims, wishing them steadfastness and strong
spirit."

Looking at the Mideast checkerboard, Egypt and Armenia have Turkey as
a common enemy. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
bitterly critical of Egypt's 2013 coup that overthrew Mohamed Morsi,
and Turkey and Armenia have been embroiled in a century-long
disagreement over whether Turkey committed a genocide of Armenians in
1915. Turkey is also a close ally of Qatar, and an enemy of Israel.
Armen Press (Armenia)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Hajj, India, H1N1,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Libya, Ansar al-Sharia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Qatar, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Jordan, Israel,
Turkey, Algeria, France Italy, Armenia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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*** 24-Feb-15 World View -- Sectarian violence surging all across Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sectarian violence surging all across Pakistan
• Greece misses deadline for submitting reforms list

****
**** Sectarian violence surging all across Pakistan
****


Pakistani Shia women condemning anti-Shia terrorist attack last month (AP)

Although terrorist violence by Sunni groups linked to the Pakistani
Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) target both Sunnis and Shias, the
amount of sectarian violence targeting Shias in Pakistan has been
trending upward for years and is now increasing substantially.
TTP-linked groups that I've reported on frequently that attack Shia
targets are Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ) and Jundullah.

There have been four major attacks on Shia targets in 2015 alone,
including the 30-Jan attack on a Shia mosque in a city just north of
Karachi, killing 56 people, as we reported.

There are several factors that make the current round of sectarian
attacks much more lethal and more difficult to combat. They used to
be restricted to just a few small regions of the country, but now
they're spread across the entire country, and using larger bombs that
result in more deaths.

The port city of Karachi used to be used by TTP linked groups only for
financing and logistics. But as the use of violence increased, TTP
terrorists attacked Shiite neighborhoods and processions with mass
casualty attacks.

But the primary difference is the relationship between the terrorist
groups and Pakistan's government. It was no secret that in the
1980s-90s, the sectarian groups were supported by the government,
depended on the government for funding, and were therefore controlled
by the government. They were largely coordinated with Saudi Arabia in
opposition to Iran and India.

But now, terrorist groups are well endowed, with unregulated funding
and weapons pouring in primarily from the Gulf region, including the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Thus, the Pakistan government no longer has any control over these
groups, even when these groups attack the government itself.

According to a Pakistan analyst Arif Rafiq, the sectarian conflict in
Pakistan is not purely Sunni versus Shia. This is not surprising,
given that the country's president from 2008-13 was a prominent Shia
leader, Asif Ali Zardari. According to Rafiq, the deadliest sectarian
attacks come from a Sunni sub-sect known as the Deobandis, comprising
about 20% of the population. The other two major Sunni sub-sects, the
Salafis and Barelvis, do not target Shias, and the Barelvis cooperate
with the Shias on political issues.

On January 1, 2015, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, the head of Pakistan's
Awami National Party (ANP) said that Punjab was a "training center for
terrorists and their masterminds. ... Terrorism could not be
eliminated from the country until an operation began against terrorist
organizations in Punjab." He added, "there should be no distinction
between good Taliban and bad Taliban and state institutions should
take across-the-board action against terrorists."

As Pakistan hurtles into chaos, it's unlikely that any of these steps
are going to be taken. As I've been describing for months, there is a
large and growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North
Africa and South Asia, of which the sectarian war in Pakistan plays a
major part. And with respect to Pakistan and India, it's worth
pointing out, as I have in the past, that for centuries, Shia Muslims
and Hindus have been allied in wars against Sunni Muslims. The Hindu and Deutsche Welle and South Asia Terrorism Portal

****
**** Greece misses deadline for submitting reforms list
****

Monday evening was the deadline that Greece committed to last week to
submit its list of reforms to the Eurogroup of eurozone finance
ministers to explain how it's going to meet the existing terms of its
bailout agreement. Greece has pretty much caved in on every negotiating point,
and must now prove
explain how it will proceed.

However, Greece missed the Monday evening deadline for providing
the list, and says now that it will provide the list on
Tuesday morning.

The list of reforms will have to address a number of economic issues,
including the bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and
corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous
pension and minimum wage policies.

Once they receive the list, the Eurogroup will have three possible
responses: Total acceptance, total rejection, or a call for further
negotiations. Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Karachi,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Jundullah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Arif Rafiq, Deobandis, Barelvis, Salafis,
Mian Iftikhar Hussain, Awami National Party, ANP,
Greece, Eurogroup

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*** 25-Feb-15 World View -- ISIS kidnaps around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS kidnaps around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria
• John Kerry says that Russia has repeatedly lied to his face

****
**** ISIS kidnaps around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria
****


Photo released by ISIS on Tuesday showing a terrorist firing anti-aircraft weapons

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
abducted around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria, in a pre-dawn raid as
part of a larger offensive on Assyrian villages in the area. ISIS
took over several villages in the offensive. The Assyrian villages
were supposed to be under the protection of the Kurdish People’s
Protection Unit (YPG), but the pre-dawn attack apparently took
everyone by surprise.

It's not known what ISIS's intentions are with the Assyrians. One
possibility is that ISIS will post a gruesome video showing them being
beheaded, as happened with the Egyptian Coptic Christians who were
abducted from Sirte, Libya. Another possibility is that they'll be
used as leverage to obtain the release of jailed ISIS terrorists.

Either way, the abduction of scores of Christians is certain to
inflame passions in the West, and may soon lead to increased anti-ISIS
military action from the US or Nato. Drawing the West into the
conflict in Syria and Iraq is thought to be part of the strategy of
ISIS. ARA News (Syria) and Long War Journal and CNN

****
**** John Kerry says that Russia has repeatedly lied to his face
****

Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that Russian officials have
repeatedly lied to him. He was referencing Russia's president
Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. Kerry said:

<QUOTE>"Russia is engaged in a rather remarkable period of
the most overt and extensive propaganda exercise that I've seen
since the very height of the Cold War. And they have been
persisting in their misrepresentations - lies - whatever you want
to call them about their activities there to my face, to the face
of others on many different occasions."<END QUOTE>

Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics will not be the least bit
surprised that Putin and Lavrov have lied constantly, but they, like
me, might be excused for wondering what took Kerry so long to point it
out.

In particular, readers may recall what I wrote in 2011 in "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
. Russia
had previously abstained on the Security Council vote authorizing the
Libya military action, and was now changing policy to use its veto to
exercise almost total control over American and Nato foreign policy.
Here's what I wrote at the time:

<QUOTE>"Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its
activities to only the humanitarian acts allowed by the UN
resolution, and then veto any attempt to expand the resolution in
the Security Council, in order to guarantee a continued stalemate
in Libya.

This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectively
control future activities of Nato, since only activities approved
by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be
permitted.

Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied down
in wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These wars
increase Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories,
which is Russia's top priority, according to the article.
Furthermore, if Libya's oil exports are stopped, then Russia's own
oil exports become more valuable."<END QUOTE>

It's now four years later, and it's almost unbelievable how successful
this policy has been. Russia has become an international criminal
organization, invading Ukraine, annexing Ukrainian territory,
supplying weapons to Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar
al-Assad. Putin had been unhappy how the Libya military action, but
his policies have had even worse outcomes, provoking war in Ukraine,
and pursuing a Syria policy that is the direct cause of the creation
of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

The latest wrinkle is that Putin is now saying that the recent Minsk
agreement on Ukraine has been approved by the Security Council, and so
has the force of international law. This is laughable because Russia
violated the Minsk agreement before the ink was dry, continuing the
invasion of Ukraine with Russian troops and weapons. Nonetheless,
Putin and Lavrov will continue to demand that the West abide by the
Minsk agreement, while Russia continues as a criminal organization,
with impunity. CBS News and Global Research and Deutsche Welle


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Assyrian Christians,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdish People’s Protection Unit, YPG,
John Kerry, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov,
Security Council, Ukraine, Minsk agreement

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*** 26-Feb-15 World View -- Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's PM Tsipras faces opposition from EU bailout deal
• Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean

****
**** Greece's PM Tsipras faces opposition from EU bailout deal
****


Alexis Tsipras

During the January election campaign in Greece, radical far-left
candidate Alexis Tsipras promised that he would stand up to the
Europeans: He would get half the Greek debt written off, and "We will
not govern with anybody who follows the policies of Mrs Merkel,"
referring to Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. Voters
enthusiastically elected him, and Prime Minister Tsipras has had
almost 80% public support in the polls.

The jury is out whether his public support will wane once it sinks in
with the public that none of the Greek debt was written off, and that,
except for a few minor adjustments, the austerity programs will
continue as before -- almost a complete cave-in to the demands of
Angela Merkel.

Tsipras really had no choice. Money was pouring out of Greece's banks
at the rate of billions of dollars per week, and deposited in foreign
banks in case Greece's banks collapsed. Greece desperately needed the
European Central Bank (ECB) to continue supplying liquidity to the
Greek Banks, and that meant that Tsipras had to agree to Merkel's
terms before the coming weekend, when the old bailout program
officially ends.

News reports indicate that Tsipras spend 10 hours on Wednesday meeting
with officials in his own left-wing Syriza party, to sell them on the
agreement and convince them not to pull his support. Presumably the
pragmatists will support him, and the left-wing hardliners will not.

As I've said repeatedly, no solution exists for the Greek financial
crisis, and the longer it's prolonged, the worse it gets. The new
bailout agreement makes the problem worse because Greece's financial
deficit will increase a bit, because of the adjustments that were made
to the original plan.

However, last week's agreement apparently kicked the can down the road
four months, until July, when the crisis will be worse than it was
last week. Kathimerini and BBC and Kathimerini

****
**** Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean
****

Cyprus on Wednesday signed a military deal with Russia giving Russian
military ships access to Cyprus's ports on in the Mediterranean Sea.

Russia has been a silent third partner in the financial crisis
negotiations between Europe and Greece, and also in last year's
financial crisis negotiations between Europe and Cyprus, because
Russia sees them as an opportunity to go around Brussels and gain a
foothold in Europe. Russia has offered financial aid to both Cyprus
and Greece. Russia has now signed this military agreement with
Cyprus, and has also offered to expand military-technical
collaboration with Greece, if the latter requests it.

Some analysts doubt that anything meaningful will come from Russia's
military agreement with Cyprus. According to one Russian analyst, "To
speak of a Russian military presence in Cyprus, on the territory of an
EU state, is beyond strange. It just makes no sense. I am certain the
president of Cyprus will retract his statement, which is being used as
a tool to put pressure on the EU, in my opinion." Reuters and Kathimerini and Moscow Times and Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Russia, Cyprus

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 26-Feb-15 World View -- Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's PM Tsipras faces opposition from EU bailout deal
• Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean

****
**** Greece's PM Tsipras faces opposition from EU bailout deal
****


Alexis Tsipras

During the January election campaign in Greece, radical far-left
candidate Alexis Tsipras promised that he would stand up to the
Europeans: He would get half the Greek debt written off, and "We will
not govern with anybody who follows the policies of Mrs Merkel,"
referring to Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. Voters
enthusiastically elected him, and Prime Minister Tsipras has had
almost 80% public support in the polls.

The jury is out whether his public support will wane once it sinks in
with the public that none of the Greek debt was written off, and that,
except for a few minor adjustments, the austerity programs will
continue as before -- almost a complete cave-in to the demands of
Angela Merkel.

Tsipras really had no choice. Money was pouring out of Greece's banks
at the rate of billions of dollars per week, and deposited in foreign
banks in case Greece's banks collapsed. Greece desperately needed the
European Central Bank (ECB) to continue supplying liquidity to the
Greek Banks, and that meant that Tsipras had to agree to Merkel's
terms before the coming weekend, when the old bailout program
officially ends.

News reports indicate that Tsipras spend 10 hours on Wednesday meeting
with officials in his own left-wing Syriza party, to sell them on the
agreement and convince them not to pull his support. Presumably the
pragmatists will support him, and the left-wing hardliners will not.

As I've said repeatedly, no solution exists for the Greek financial
crisis, and the longer it's prolonged, the worse it gets. The new
bailout agreement makes the problem worse because Greece's financial
deficit will increase a bit, because of the adjustments that were made
to the original plan.

However, last week's agreement apparently kicked the can down the road
four months, until July, when the crisis will be worse than it was
last week. Kathimerini and BBC and Kathimerini

****
**** Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean
****

Cyprus on Wednesday signed a military deal with Russia giving Russian
military ships access to Cyprus's ports on in the Mediterranean Sea.

Russia has been a silent third partner in the financial crisis
negotiations between Europe and Greece, and also in last year's
financial crisis negotiations between Europe and Cyprus, because
Russia sees them as an opportunity to go around Brussels and gain a
foothold in Europe. Russia has offered financial aid to both Cyprus
and Greece. Russia has now signed this military agreement with
Cyprus, and has also offered to expand military-technical
collaboration with Greece, if the latter requests it.

Some analysts doubt that anything meaningful will come from Russia's
military agreement with Cyprus. According to one Russian analyst, "To
speak of a Russian military presence in Cyprus, on the territory of an
EU state, is beyond strange. It just makes no sense. I am certain the
president of Cyprus will retract his statement, which is being used as
a tool to put pressure on the EU, in my opinion." Reuters and Kathimerini and Moscow Times and Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Russia, Cyprus

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The reason for bank runs in Germany (and for that matter, a number of other Northern and Central European countries) is the banks are now offering (or more correctly, charging) negative interest. You have to pay the bank to have your money in a money market / savings account. That's a no brainer, the money will get reallocated. I am wondering how long it will be before US based banks start to charge negative interest?

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

The reason for bank runs in Germany (and for that matter, a number of other Northern and Central European countries) is the banks are now offering (or more correctly, charging) negative interest. You have to pay the bank to have your money in a money market / savings account. That's a no brainer, the money will get reallocated. I am wondering how long it will be before US based banks start to charge negative interest?

We ain't a bank we're a money warehouse. If youse wanna use the warehouse ya gotta pay yer rent.

Banks can charge savers through sundry fees. Such is a sneaky way to pay negative interest.

One might as well go all cash -- or buy stocks and bonds.

*** 27-Feb-15 World View -- Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden
• Yemen's banks deteriorate as the economy collapses
• US CPI continues in deflation, as Europe offers negative interest bonds

****
**** Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden
****


Hadi (in suit) meets Saudi ambassador and entourage (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Yemen is leaving the capital city Sanaa
and moving to the southern city of Aden. Other Arab countries in the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to follow suit.

Shia Iran-backed ethnic Houthis from northern Yemen last October
invaded and occupied Sanaa. The constitutional president Abd-Rabbu
Mansour Hadi last month first resigned then escaped the Houthis and fled to Aden,
where he has a power
base among Sunni tribes.

Now Hadi is essentially setting up Aden as a second capital, splitting
the country into North and South Yemen. North and South Yemen
were separate countries that were united in 1990, but it now
appears that they're close to splitting into two countries again.

For the West, the biggest fear is that all this chaos will give rise
to a stronger Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is
headquartered in Yemen. With regard to this point, there are some
analysts saying that AQAP will not gain strength, because both Hadi
and the Houthis oppose AQAP. However, there are now three major
centers of power in Yemen -- the Houthis, Hadi in Aden, and AQAP --
and the possibility of a new civil war cannot be discounted.

As UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently said, the country "is
collapsing before our eyes." National Yemen and Washington Post

****
**** Yemen's banks deteriorate as the economy collapses
****

Fears of economic collapse are causing Yemen citizens to withdraw
their US dollar savings from banks and keep the dollars at home.
Yemen is facing economic collapse for several reasons:

• The political chaos of the country having two capitals after
  the Houthi seizure of Sanaa is preventing many businesses from
  operating.
  
• The fighting has reduced oil exports, Yemen's main source of
  dollars. At the same time the price of oil has been falling, so even
  less money is coming in.
  
• Saudi Arabia used to provide aid to the Sunni-led government of
  Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, but that aid was cut off when the new Shia-led
  Houthi government took over.

It's possible that the Sanaa government will soon be unable to pay
salaries within a few weeks. The economic collapse represents a
recruiting opportunity for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Widespread protests and riots, as well as terrorist acts by AQAP, are
expected to increase. Bloomberg

****
**** US CPI continues in deflation, as Europe offers negative interest bonds
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.53 on February 20 (WSJ)

The US Labor Department said on Thursday that its consumer price index
(CPI) fell 0.7% in January, after falling the previous two months as
well. In the 12 months through January, the CPI fell 0.1% over the
year. The economy continues its deflationary spiral that is predicted
by Generational Dynamics.

Europe has clearly been in a deflationary spiral for a couple
of years, with January's inflation rate at -0.6%. On Thursday,
Germany announced that it will sell five-year bonds at
negative yields (interest rates) for the first time ever. That means
that if you have a lot of money and you want to put it into the
bank for safety, then you have to pay the bank money to keep it.

Five-year bonds from four other eurozone countries -- Netherlands,
Austria, Sweden and Finland -- also have negative yields.

The negative interest rates are forcing investors to look for other
places to invest, and one of those places is Wall Street, which is
part of the reason for the surge in stock prices.

The result is that the Wall Street stock market bubble is exploding to
new highs. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (February 20) is still at an
astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average
of 14. It's a large jump from last month, and it's a fresh high in
recent years. This indicates that the stock market is in a huge
bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts
that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where
it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial
Average of 3000 or lower. It's best to keep money in cash, even in
the face of mild deflation, because you stand to lose a great deal of
money if/when the stock market crashes. Reuters and Investment Week and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Sanaa,
Aden, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi,
Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Ban Ki-moon,
Consumer Price Index, CPI, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio,
Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 27-Feb-15 World View -- Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden
• Yemen's banks deteriorate as the economy collapses
• US CPI continues in deflation, as Europe offers negative interest bonds

****
**** Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden
****


Hadi (in suit) meets Saudi ambassador and entourage (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Yemen is leaving the capital city Sanaa
and moving to the southern city of Aden. Other Arab countries in the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to follow suit.

Shia Iran-backed ethnic Houthis from northern Yemen last October
invaded and occupied Sanaa. The constitutional president Abd-Rabbu
Mansour Hadi last month first resigned then escaped the Houthis and fled to Aden,
where he has a power
base among Sunni tribes.

Now Hadi is essentially setting up Aden as a second capital, splitting
the country into North and South Yemen. North and South Yemen
were separate countries that were united in 1990, but it now
appears that they're close to splitting into two countries again.

For the West, the biggest fear is that all this chaos will give rise
to a stronger Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is
headquartered in Yemen. With regard to this point, there are some
analysts saying that AQAP will not gain strength, because both Hadi
and the Houthis oppose AQAP. However, there are now three major
centers of power in Yemen -- the Houthis, Hadi in Aden, and AQAP --
and the possibility of a new civil war cannot be discounted.

As UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently said, the country "is
collapsing before our eyes." National Yemen and Washington Post

****
**** Yemen's banks deteriorate as the economy collapses
****

Fears of economic collapse are causing Yemen citizens to withdraw
their US dollar savings from banks and keep the dollars at home.
Yemen is facing economic collapse for several reasons:

• The political chaos of the country having two capitals after
  the Houthi seizure of Sanaa is preventing many businesses from
  operating.
• The fighting has reduced oil exports, Yemen's main source of
  dollars. At the same time the price of oil has been falling, so even
  less money is coming in.
• Saudi Arabia used to provide aid to the Sunni-led government of
  Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, but that aid was cut off when the new Shia-led
  Houthi government took over.

It's possible that the Sanaa government will soon be unable to pay
salaries within a few weeks. The economic collapse represents a
recruiting opportunity for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Widespread protests and riots, as well as terrorist acts by AQAP, are
expected to increase. Bloomberg

****
**** US CPI continues in deflation, as Europe offers negative interest bonds
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.53 on February 20 (WSJ)

The US Labor Department said on Thursday that its consumer price index
(CPI) fell 0.7% in January, after falling the previous two months as
well. In the 12 months through January, the CPI fell 0.1% over the
year. The economy continues its deflationary spiral that is predicted
by Generational Dynamics.

Europe has clearly been in a deflationary spiral for a couple
of years, with January's inflation rate at -0.6%. On Thursday,
Germany announced that it will sell five-year bonds at
negative yields (interest rates) for the first time ever. That means
that if you have a lot of money and you want to put it into the
bank for safety, then you have to pay the bank money to keep it.

Five-year bonds from four other eurozone countries -- Netherlands,
Austria, Sweden and Finland -- also have negative yields.

The negative interest rates are forcing investors to look for other
places to invest, and one of those places is Wall Street, which is
part of the reason for the surge in stock prices.

The result is that the Wall Street stock market bubble is exploding to
new highs. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (February 20) is still at an
astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average
of 14. It's a large jump from last month, and it's a fresh high in
recent years. This indicates that the stock market is in a huge
bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts
that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where
it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial
Average of 3000 or lower. It's best to keep money in cash, even in
the face of mild deflation, because you stand to lose a great deal of
money if/when the stock market crashes. Reuters and Investment Week and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Sanaa,
Aden, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi,
Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Ban Ki-moon,
Consumer Price Index, CPI, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio,
Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland

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The best place to invest during a deflationary spiral is in cash flow producing assets. But don't use leverage of any kind, because of course, the last thing to have during deflation is debt / outgoing interest payments. Now having said that, those negative interest bonds mean zero interest loans and negative interest loans. So, that sort of leverage may be OK in the short term. But even that sort of leverage could backfire if interest rates become even more negative.

*** 28-Feb-15 World View -- US Navy says that China now has more attack submarines than US

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's South China Sea building spree threatens neighbors
• US Navy says that China now has more attack submarines than US

****
**** China's South China Sea building spree threatens neighbors
****


A Chinese Coast Guard vessel passes near a Chinese oil rig within Vietnam's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in 2012 (Reuters)

China is on a building spree, conducting "large scale" land
reclamation and construction in the Spratly Islands in the South China
Sea. Since last year, China has already built a new artificial
island, more than 18 acres in size, whose main building appears to
have an anti-aircraft tower.

Satellite photographs have shown that Chinese reclamation work is
advanced on six reefs in the Spratly archipelago. Workers are
building ports and fuel storage depots as well as possibly two
airstrips as China works to project its military power into Southeast
Asia. China’s creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea
is happening so fast that Beijing will be able to extend the range of
its navy, air force, coastguard and fishing fleets before long,
according to analysts.

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose. Instead, China is
becoming increasingly belligerent militarily, annexing other nations'
territories, and militarizing the entire sea.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said on Thursday at a
Senate hearing that China is making an "aggressive" military effort to
exert sovereignty in the South China Sea. However, he said that China
was still in a construction phase so it was unclear what weaponry or
forces it might deploy on these man-made islands. Guardian (London) and Reuters and Foreign Policy and Reuters (2/20)

****
**** US Navy says that China now has more attack submarines than US
****

China is building some "fairly amazing submarines" and now has more
diesel- and nuclear-powered vessels than the United States, according
to Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy at a Senate hearing on Wednesday. "We
know they are out experimenting and looking at operating and clearly
want to be in this world of advanced submarines," he said. Mulloy
said the quality of China's submarines was lower than those built by
the United States, but the size of its undersea fleet had now
surpassed that of the U.S. fleet.

China has been building numerous missile systems and other weaponry
with no other purpose than to attack American cities, military bases,
and aircraft carriers. Generational Dynamics predicts that China is
preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack on
the United States. In the generational crisis war to follow, there is
no guarantee that the United States will survive. Reuters and Washington Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
James Clapper, Joseph Mulloy

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*** 1-Mar-15 World View -- Reports indicate Egypt, Italy, Russia planning military action in Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Reports indicate Egypt, Italy, Russia planning military action in Libya
• Egypt court declares Hamas to be a terrorist organization
• Egypt and Turkey may try to create a 'Sunni front' with Saudi Arabia

****
**** Reports indicate Egypt, Italy, Russia planning military action in Libya
****


Russian warships in the Mediterranean (Russia Today)

Various unconfirmed reports are emerging indicating that there may
be joint international action planned in Libya as early as next
week.

Egypt is already conduction air strikes against ISIS-linked targets in
Derna, close to where Egyptian Coptics were massacred recently, as
displayed in a gruesome video. Debka reports that Egypt's president
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is planning further action in Libya, including
more air strikes and possible ground troops, within a few days.
According to the report, Egyptian commando and marine forces are
preparing for sea landings to seize Derna and destroy the terrorist
elements there. If this attack is actually launched, it will be the
first time in modern times that an Arab country has sent ground forces
into another Arab country.

Al-Jazeera television reports that the Italian navy is getting ready
to carry off sophisticated military drills off the coast of Libya, as
early as Monday. Although Italy claims that it's a regular exercise,
there are many more vessels taking part in this year's exercise than
have in the past, which Italy explains by saying that they're testing
out sophisticated new technologies.

There are several reasons why Italy is pursuing this show of force:

• Italy considers the flood of migrants from Libya into Italy to
  be an existential threat to Italy itself, because there may be
  ISIS-trained terrorists smuggled in, along with the other migrants.
  Italy may be planning some kind of military action in Libya in
  conjunction with Egypt's air strikes and other operations.
  
• The GreenStream pipeline is a gas pipeline running underneath the
  Mediterranan Sea from Libya to Sicily. The pipeline is vital to
  economic relations between Italy and Libya. In recent months, there
  have been attacks by gunmen on oil installations in Libya, forcing
  some ports to shut down. The new show of naval force may be related
  to threats of attack or sabotage on the pipeline.
  
• For over a year, Italy ran a search and rescue program called
  "Mare Nostrum" ("Our Sea") that saved the lives of thousands of
  migrants attempting to travel from Libya to Italy. This program
  required Italian naval vessels near the Libyan coast. In November,
  the program ended and an EU program called Triton replaced it, but
  Triton restricts its operations to only 30 miles off the Italian
  coast. Triton has been considered unsatisfactory because many more
  migrants are drowning. Italy's new show of naval force may be an
  attempt to restore a portion of the Mare Nostrum program.
  
• Related to the last point, on Saturday there were large
  demonstrations in Rome by Italy's anti-immigrant Northern League party
  for the government to do more to keep immigrants out. The naval show
  of force may help to mollify the protestors.

Some reports indicate that Russia has indicated a willingness
to participate in a naval blockade of Libya to prevent
arm supplies from leaving Libya for other countries. Russia
could play a role in this because it already has a naval
fleet in the Mediterranean.

These are all unconfirmed reports of possible military action in Libya
by Egypt, Italy and Russia. There are no reports of possible
participation by Nato or the United States. Debka and Cairo Post

****
**** Egypt court declares Hamas to be a terrorist organization
****

Egypt on Saturday became the first Arab country to name Hamas as a
terrorist organization. The U.S. and the European Union have named
Hamas as a terror group. An EU court took Hamas off the list in
December 2014, ruling that the designation was not based on solid
legal evidence, but the EU is appealing the court's decision.

According to a decision on Saturday from the Cairo Court for Urgent
Matters:

<QUOTE>"It has been proven without any doubt that the
movement has committed acts of sabotage, assassinations and the
killing of innocent civilians and members of the armed forces and
police in Egypt.

It has been also ascertained with documents that [Hamas] has
carried out bombings that have taken lives and destroyed
institutions and targeted civilians and the armed forces
personnel. It has also been ascertained that this movement works
for the interests of the terrorist Brotherhood organization [which
Egypt has already declared to be a terrorist
organization]."<END QUOTE>

About a month ago, the same court declared Hamas's military wing,
Al-Qassam Brigades, to be a terrorist organization. Saturday's ruling
makes the political wing a terrorist organization as well.

A Hamas spokesman denied all the charges and said that the ruling
was "dangerous":

<QUOTE>"History has recorded Egypt’s support to national
liberty movements in the Arab world and Africa, particularly in
Palestine. ... This ruling serves the Israeli occupation. It's a
politicized decision that constitutes the beginning of Egypt
evading its role toward the Palestinian cause. This is a coup
against history and an Egyptian abuse of the Palestinian cause and
resistance, which fights on behalf of the Arab nation. We call on
Egypt to reconsider this dangerous decision."<END QUOTE>

Al Jazeera and Al Ahram (Cairo) and CS Monitor and Al Resalah (Palestine)

****
**** Egypt and Turkey may try to create a 'Sunni front' with Saudi Arabia
****

By coincidence or by planning, the presidents of both Egypt and Turkey
will be in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week. Egypt's Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan will both be visiting King
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, the new king of Saudi Arabia, who has
replaced King Abdullah II, who died last month.

It's not known whether Erdogan will ever be in the same room as
al-Sisi. The two have been bitter enemies ever since a coup by
al-Sisi ousted Egypt's elected president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood government in 2013, and later declared MB to be a
terrorist organization. Erdogan's own political party, the AKP, is an
Islamist party like the Muslim Brotherhood, and they had good
relations while Morsi was in power.

There has been some speculation that King Salman is going to
completely reverse King Abdullah's policy on the Muslim Brotherhood.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) had branded MB as a
terrorist organization, but some are wondering if Salman is going to
shift from that policy. The Saudi foreign minister recently said that
his government has "no problem with the Muslim Brotherhood; our
problem is with a small group affiliated to the organization,"
suggesting that shift is in the works.

Other problems make an Egypt-Turkey rapprochement unlikely:
Erdogan vitriolicly hates Israel and supports Hamas. Al-Sisi
vitriolicly hates Hamas and works closely with Israel on military
matters, especially in North Sinai. So really, it doesn't seem
likely that any meeting, if one even occurs, will be pleasant.

If King Salman is able to pull off a miracle and mediate a new
relationship between Egypt and Turkey, then it would appear to be the
establishment of a new "Sunni front" in the Mideast, to oppose Iran,
Hezbollah and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Al Arabiya and Kurdistan and Arab Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Libya,
GreenStream pipeline, Italy, Mare Nostrum, Triton,
Northern League, Russia,
Hamas, Gaza, Al-Qassam Brigades, Muslim Brotherhood,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Abdullah II, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Sunni Front, Iran,
Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

The best place to invest during a deflationary spiral is in cash flow producing assets.

I see no such animal.
1. John has it absolutely correct wrt the stock market. Valuations are insane.
2. Bonds: negative interest rates are for idiots.
3. Real estate is another bubble.

Now , there are some things you can do to cope with monetary madness.
1. Replace every incandescent light bulb in your house with a CFL or diode light bulb.
2. Withdraw all excess cash and just stuff it in your safe deposit box. 0% interest is far better than some negative nonsense.
3. A 10 % PMC [precious metal complex] insurance policy seems wise. Out of control deflation can cause really bad banking system stresses. The PMC has no counter party risk.

But don't use leverage of any kind, because of course, the last thing to have during deflation is debt / outgoing interest payments.

Uh, if you can, use gas saving or whatever to dump debt, say paying down credit cards, mortgages, student loan principal balances. It's like making 20% tax free if you debt dump on credit cards.

Now having said that, those negative interest bonds mean zero interest loans and negative interest loans. So, that sort of leverage may be OK in the short term. But even that sort of leverage could backfire if interest rates become even more negative.

Yup, which why I think debt dumping is a better option. Most Americans owe money on something.

What's a PMC [precious metal complex] insurance policy?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What's a PMC [precious metal complex] insurance policy?

It's my name for the physical possession of precious metals. By physical possession I mean you can actually touch whatever metals you own. This means you have them stored in a safe deposit box or a home safe, but NOT an ETF. By insurance, I mean a buy and hold of said metals for the purpose of insuring oneself against adverse market events. Since precious metals are just things, they can't default on you like bonds, stocks, government bonds, etc. They can only go up and down in relative price to currencies so they just incur market risks. In saner times there were opportunity costs, but with negative interest rates, that is no longer an issue.

The symbols for member of the PMC are as follows
Gold : XAU
Silver: XAG
Palladium: XPD
Platinum: XPT

Hopefully that explains things, John.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> 3. A 10 % PMC [precious metal complex] insurance policy seems
> wise. Out of control deflation can cause really bad banking
> system stresses. The PMC has no counter party risk.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

> What's a PMC [precious metal complex] insurance policy?

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> It's my name for the physical possession of precious metals. By
> physical possession I mean you can actually touch whatever metals
> you own. This means you have them stored in a safe deposit box or
> a home safe, but NOT an ETF. By insurance, I mean a buy and hold
> of said metals for the purpose of insuring oneself against adverse
> market events. Since precious metals are just things, they can't
> default on you like bonds, stocks, government bonds, etc. They can
> only go up and down in relative price to currencies so they just
> incur market risks. In saner times there were opportunity costs,
> but with negative interest rates, that is no longer an issue.

> The symbols for member of the PMC are as follows
> Gold : XAU
> Silver: XAG
> Palladium: XPD
> Platinum: XPT
>
> Hopefully that explains things, John.

What would happen if gold were in a bubble, and the bubble burst,
and the price of gold fell into the $400 range?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What would happen if gold were in a bubble, and the bubble burst,
and the price of gold fell into the $400 range?

Sure, but when I look at the chart for gold, I didn't notice a parabolic blow off. Now , silver seems to be hated. That's a nice feature of PMC, they don't necessarily move in tandem wrt price.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

Just compare the above to this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=S...22linear%22%7D

*** 2-Mar-15 World View -- After almost $1 billion development costs, Healthcare.gov is still a disaster

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• After almost $1 billion development costs, Healthcare.gov is still a disaster
• Anthem health insurance data breach puts even non-customers at risk
• Al-Sisi and Erdogan miss in Riyadh, signaling stormy times ahead

****
**** After almost $1 billion development costs, Healthcare.gov is still a disaster
****


According to Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber, Obamacare passed because of the stupidity of the American people who supported it

On October 1, 2013, the Healthcare.gov web site was launched as the
greatest IT disaster in world history. ( "1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed"
)

Now, almost 1-1/2 years later, the web site still doesn't work.
Developers hired by the Administration have focused on making the user
interface pretty, able to collect data, and display basic information
screens. Once the web site gathers the data, it simply sends the data
along as a kind of e-mail message to the appropriate insurance
company.

At that point, the insurance company has to go through expensive
manual procedures to register the patient. There are constant news
reports of patients who never got registered, or who were incorrectly
registered, or whose insurance was dropped when there was a change,
such as a marriage or a baby. There are reports of massive errors in
applying subsidies. These are typical of the kinds of errors
routinely made in manual systems in pre-computer days.

So it's been about 5 years, almost $1 billion in development costs,
and all we have is a simple shell program running as a web site,
designed to look pretty to avoid embarrassment to the Obama
administration, but with nothing underneath.

This is a very simple web application. I could have implemented it as
a one-man project in about a year. With a small team of programmers
and testers, this could have been implemented in 4-6 months for a cost
of a few million dollars.

So start with a few million dollars, factor in huge amounts of
government bloating, factor in extortion by labor unions, factor
in sheer government stupidity and inefficiency, and you only
come to about $50 million dollars or so.

So where the hell did that $1 billion go? Until I get an explanation
of how a $50 million project cost $1 billion, then I have to assume
that Administration is conducting massive government fraud here,
padding the bank accounts of its cronies with tens of millions of
dollars each. Why aren't the Republicans in Congress investigating?
Most likely answer: The Republicans and their cronies are in on the
gravy train. Everyone makes astronomical amounts of money, and the
taxpayers get screwed.

After last year's disaster, a computer contracting firm, Accenture
Federal Services, was issued a $91.1 million no-bid contract to fix
the web site. So now, after spending another $91.1, we still have
nothing more than this shell web site that I could have written by
myself in a year, and all it does is collect information and e-mail it
to insurance companies.

The administration is bragging that 11 million people have signed up
to Obamacare. That's because the administration is paying them huge
sums of money to sign up. In 2014, 87% of federal Obamacare enrollees
got subsidies. For the silver plan, out of an annual $4,140 premium,
the subsidy amounts to $3,132, leaving the patient only $828 to pay
out of the $4,140. So the reason that a lot of people have signed up
is that they're getting huge amounts of money from the administration
to sign up.

And even with that, a typical deductible is $5,000-15,000, which means
that most of these insured are effectively uninsured, since they'll
have to pay all their own medical expenses anyway. And of the 11
million that signed up, 89% of the new enrollees last year were for
Medicaid, which provides almost no effective coverage at all. So
there may be more "effectively uninsured" people today than there were
uninsured people in the past.

So this is what Obamacare amounts to. Pay astronomical amounts of
money to developers to create Healthcare.gov, which is a piece of
crap. And then pay astronomical amounts to individual people to sign
up. And if millions more are effectively uninsured because of huge
deductibles and Medicaid, then who cares? Certainly no the
administration.

None of this would have happened before Generation-X came into power
in the late 1990s. Today, with Generation-X in charge, criminal fraud
is so entrenched in Washington, on Wall Street, and in our culture
that no one has any shame, and no one cares about billions and
billions of dollars being thrown away on Obamacare, which has
accomplished nothing except to boost Barack Obama's ego. Politico and Free Beacon

****
**** Anthem health insurance data breach puts even non-customers at risk
****

The news just keeps getting worse about the massive data breach at
Anthem Inc., where 80 million current and former customers had their
personal information compromised, including birthdates, addresses, and
social security numbers. Any current or former customer of the
following health plans is potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross,
Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of
Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore,
Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.

As we wrote last month,
this
includes millions of children of all ages. Birthdates and social
security numbers never change, and hackers can dip into this treasure
trove of data for years to create an unending flow of identity theft
victims.

It now turns out that even 8.8 million non-customer of Anthem could be
victims of the data hack, and future victims of identity theft. The
reason is that Anthem is part of a national network of independently
run Blue Cross Blue Shield plans through which BCBS customers can
receive medical services when they are in an area where BCBS is
operated by a different company, and so any customer of any BCBS
insurance plan is potentially a victim. Reuters

****
**** Al-Sisi and Erdogan miss in Riyadh, signaling stormy times ahead
****

As we reported yesterday,
Egypt's
president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan are both visiting Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week, to visit
with the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud.

Speculation was buzzing that bitter enemies al-Sisi and Erdogan might
meet one another, and Salman would mediate some kind of rapprochement
between the two. Well, al-Sisi completed his visit on Sunday, and
Erdogan is going to meet with Salman on Monday.

So instead of leading to a new Sunni Muslim world of harmony, the
entire incident is very publicly exposing just how bitter the split is
between Egypt and Turkey. Turkey and Egypt were friends when Mohamed
Morsi was president of Egypt, and his Muslim Brotherhood was in
charge, but now the presidents of Egypt and Turkey cannot stand to be
in the same room with each other.

Egypt will be watching the meeting between Salman and Erdogan very
nervously. Salman's predecessor, King Abdullah, had very strong
policies against the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, causing a bitter
realignment of Egypt and Saudi Arabia on the anti-MB side, versus
Qatar and Turkey on the pro-MB side. So Egypt is concerned that
Salman will reverse Abdullah's policy on MB, which would almost
completely isolate Egypt -- though Israel would still be an ally.

Things may have gotten a lot worse over the weekend. As we reported yesterday,
Egypt has now
declared Hamas to be a terrorist organization. This is turning out to
be more than just a simple act of adding Hamas to a list. It strikes
at the very heart of giving lip service to Arab unity in the
resistance against Israel, since now Israel's view of Hamas has been
confirmed by Egypt.

The BBC has been running stories about a new building up of rockets,
missiles and tunnels in Gaza, following last summer's Gaza war
with Israel. Hamas was completely humiliated by that war since
they were so thoroughly defeated by Israel, but now they're
applying "lessons learned" to create a network of tunnels and
rockets that they hope will draw a lot more Israeli blood.

It was last summer's Gaza war that exploded the fracture in the
Arab world over the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. If, as the
BBC reports suggest, Hamas is planning another war in the fairly
near future, then the situation may be explosive.
Middle East Eye and Saudi Gazette


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Obamacare, Healthcare.gov,
Accenture Federal Services,
Anthem Inc., Blue Cross Blue Shield,
Hamas, Gaza, Al-Qassam Brigades, Muslim Brotherhood,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Abdullah II, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud

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Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> Sure, but when I look at the chart for gold, I didn't notice a
> parabolic blow off. Now , silver seems to be hated. That's a nice
> feature of PMC, they don't necessarily move in tandem wrt price.

> http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

> Just compare the above to this:

> http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=S...22linear%22%7D

Here's another chart:

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Here's another chart:

Your Chart is obsolete gold prices have been in decline since about 2011.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Your Chart is obsolete gold prices have been in decline since about 2011.

But not yet to the $400 range.

Even precious metals are no refuge. The fundamentals do not warrant appreciation of precious metals, demand is declining and supplies are rich.