Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Even precious metals are no refuge. The fundamentals do not warrant appreciation of precious metals, demand is declining and supplies are rich.

1. I said they are insurance, not some sort of investment. By that, I mean no counter party risk. Now, I also said, what would one do if
a. They had no debt whatsoever to use extra funds for.
b. Obvious money savers like insulation/CFL's were already in place.
c. Something, say like more than 3 months of living expenses saved up.

Given the above, the stock market is whacked as is the real estate market.
Wait, but there's more. Subprime, baby.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/...gh-rates/?_r=0

It's back, but it's cars this time, not houses.

Now, let's look at who likes gold.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/46393169.cms
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymon...b_2668286.html
ww.reuters.com/article/2014/05/24/russia-forum-putin-idUSL6N0OA0JE20140524

India and Russia, and China seem to like it.

Originally Posted by huffpost

We have a Russia that is governed by a coven comparable to our Wall Street "ole boys network," namely the alumni of Russia's highly touted secret service, the KGB. The KGB helped form Putin and many of his associates in government. Here was an organization that was the nonpareil master of clandestine intrigue, knowing how to keep secrets. Now in a sense, it is running the country albeit with the trappings of democratic governance.

Fuck if Putin likes it, sounds like I'm in good company. If there's one thing that can be said about Russia, is that it's a rather well run place, in contrast to out cesspool of idiots over here in DC. I'll have to do some digging wrt SCO and see if it likes it.




Then of course, the PMC has those other metals as well. Why just look at gold. Here's a song for the idiots on Wall Street who are gonna blow things up all over again.

*** 3-Mar-15 World View -- Why did ISIS release 19 Assyrian Christian hostages?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Why did ISIS release 19 Assyrian Christian hostages?
• Iran aids Iraq's army in attack to recapture Tikrit from ISIS

****
**** Why did ISIS release 19 Assyrian Christian hostages?
****


An Assyrian woman in church prays for Christians abducted by ISIS (Reuters)

The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) on
Sunday released 19 Assyrian Christians, 17 men and two women, among
over 200 that were abducted last month. in the recent raid, ISIS
overran more than a dozen villages inhabited by the ancient Christian
minority.

Everyone is wondering why? Some suggested reasons being reported are:

• The 19 Christians paid the tax that ISIS imposes on
  non-Muslims, so they were freed. If that's the reason, one wonders
  why dozens more didn't pay the tax in order to get freed.
  
• All of the released hostages were 50 years of age or older,
  implying that it's ISIS policy only to slit the throats of younger
  people.
  
• The ISIS guys are fair and honest interpreters of Sharia law, and
  they conducted a transparent process that free the 19 hostages.
  
• The Syrian Sunni Tribal leaders care deeply about the Assyrian
  Christians, with whom they've lived for centuries, and so they
  negotiated the freedom of the 19 refugees. Presumably, this means
  that they don't care deeply for the other 200 abductees.
  
• The ISIS leaders are deeply religious, and released the 19 on
  humanitarian grounds.

My personal view is generally quite different from any of these
explanations.

First off, I don't view ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as any sort
of religious person. In the Christian world, serial killers like
Jeffrey Dahmer, Charles Manson, John Wayne Gacy, and many others, all
claimed to be deeply religious Christians, and could even quote the
Bible on cue. But nobody considered these men to any sort of
Christian. Like Dahmer, Manson and Gacy, al-Baghdadi is simply a
cheap thug, with charismatic skills in using religion to lead people
to their deaths.

ISIS has killed a few hundred Christians, but has killed tens of
thousands of Muslims. Al-Baghdadi and other ISIS leaders use a
two-step process to kill other Muslims. First, they practice "takfir"
-- they declare the people to be apostates for some trivial reason,
then they kill them.

There is no way that Islam permits one Muslim to simply declare a
village of people to be apostates for some trivial reason, and to kill
them. That would give every Muslim a free pass to kill anyone else.
A woman could declare that her husband's hair is uneven, and kill him.

Here's something I found on a Muslim web site:

According to a conversation recorded by a contemporary, Mohammed was
once talking to an Ansar man:

<QUOTE>Suddenly the Holy Prophet said loudly [about someone]:
“Does he not bear witness that there is no god but Allah?”

The Ansari said: “Yes indeed, O Messenger of Allah, but his
testimony cannot be trusted.”

The Holy Prophet said: “Does he not accept that Muhammad is the
Messenger of Allah?”

He again replied: “Yes, he professes it but his profession cannot
be trusted.”

The Holy Prophet said: “Does he not pray?”

He again said: “Yes he does, but his prayer cannot be trusted.”

The Holy Prophet said: “God has forbidden me to kill such
people.”<END QUOTE>

So al-Baghdadi is no religious scholar, or any kind of religious
person. He's a cheap murdering thug who killed tens of thousands of
Muslims and who, according to Islam, will burn in hell.

So why did ISIS release the 19 Assyrians? Here's my theory:

ISIS leaders are cheap, murdering thugs who murder people for power
and money. They've had spectacular successes in publicity stunts
posting a few videos of killing a few Christians, because those videos
being in recruits and money. But as beheading Christians becomes more
commonplace, the publicity stunts become less effective. We've
already seen a lot less international outrage of the Assyrian
abductions than some previous abductions. One news story writes:
"Igniting a live man in a cage; severing the heads of dozens;
kidnapping, raping and selling women and children -- ISIS' shocking
maltreatment of its captives has become regrettably predictable."

So, in my view, releasing the 19 Assyrians was just a new publicity
stunt to get more attention. Like Jonathan Gruber bragging about the
stupidity of the American people, I can imagine Abu Omar al-Baghdadi
saying the following: "These Western reporters are idiots. Let's
release 19 Assyrians to give them a 'glimmer of hope,' and then when
we slit the throats of the other 200 Assyrians, we'll get a lot more
publicity." Reuters and Christian Times and CNN and Muslim.org

****
**** Iran aids Iraq's army in attack to recapture Tikrit from ISIS
****

American officials were caught by surprise on Monday when Iraq
announced that an invasion of the city of Tikrit had begun, with the
objective of retaking it from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). In particular, no U.S. air support
will be provided, since none was requested. Instead, some Iranian
forces are on the ground helping the Iraqis, though it's not known how
many. Iraqi fighter jets will conduct air strikes.

The Iraqi security forces leading the invasion of Tikrit number around
30,000, including a mix of Shia militias, Sunni tribes, Kurdish
Peshmerga fighters, and Iranian advisors. There are already sectarian
tensions between Sunnis and Shias throughout the Mideast, and Iraq's
last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, which
will still be firmly in everyone's memory. It's feared that this
highly combustible mix of fighters will reignite a wider conflict.
Employing Shia militias to attack Sunnis in ISIS is almost certain
to inflame the conflict.

The city of Tikrit is symbolic for being the birthplace of Saddam
Hussein. US forces found the former president hiding in southern
Tikrit eight months after the US-led invasion in 2003. Foreign Policy and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Assyrian Christians, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jeffrey Dahmer, Charles Manson, John Wayne Gacy, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Iraq, Tikrit, Iran, Saddam Hussein

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

...
Now, almost 1-1/2 years later, the web site still doesn't work.
Developers hired by the Administration have focused on making the user
interface pretty, able to collect data, and display basic information
screens. Once the web site gathers the data, it simply sends the data
along as a kind of e-mail message to the appropriate insurance
company.

...
This is a very simple web application. I could have implemented it as
a one-man project in about a year. With a small team of programmers
and testers, this could have been implemented in 4-6 months for a cost
of a few million dollars.

...
****
**** Anthem health insurance data breach puts even non-customers at risk
****

The news just keeps getting worse about the massive data breach at
Anthem Inc., where 80 million current and former customers had their
personal information compromised, including birthdates, addresses, and
social security numbers. Any current or former customer of the
following health plans is potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross,
Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of
Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore,
Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.

It's rather amazing that security takes a back seat: I just went to one of my usual news sites and didn't do anything whatsoever to hack and got:

Originally Posted by spewed out hacker's delight

• User warning: Illegal mix of collations for operation � IN � query: SELECT <redacted?, <redacted> FROM <redacted> WHERE <redacted> IN(�<redacted>.php/�/\��,�user/<redacted>�,�user/<redacted>�,�node/502757�,�node/502739�,�node/502751�,�node/502724&#;,�node/502763�,�node/502743�,�node/502756�,�node/502753�,�node/502759�,�node/502734�,�<redacted>�) AND (<redacted> = &#;en� OR <redacted> = ��) ORDER BY <redacted> ASC in _db_query() (line <redacted> of/var/www/<redacted>/includes/database.mysql.inc).
• User warning: Illegal mix of collations (latin1_swedish_ci,IMPLICIT) and (utf8_general_ci,COERCIBLE) for operation �=� query: SELECT <redacted> FROM <redacted> WHERE <redacted> = �articles/<redacted>.php/�/\�� in _db_query() (line <redacted> of/var/www/<redacted>/includes/database.mysql.inc).
• User warning: Illegal mix of collations (latin1_swedish_ci,IMPLICIT) and (utf8_general_ci,COERCIBLE) for operation �=� query: SELECT <redacted> FROM <redacted> WHERE <redacted> = �<redacted>.php/�/\�� AND (<redacted> = �en� OR <redacted> = &#039;�) ORDER BY <redacted>DESC in _db_query() (line <redacted> of /var/www/<redacted>/includes/database.mysql.inc).

1. I don't even have a login to this place.
2. I just wonder how many other websites just spew out their database information if given some *invalid input?
3. I did not provide any input at all. I just went to a web page and it just spat this stuff out.
4. I think the only thing different about my PC is that I have several layers of security, like a blackhole list of servers like google-analytics.com , etc. I also run software which smashes cookies. My PC is also hardened as per standards for a internet facing computer.
5. The problem with Swedish is just a coincidence , unless it's peaking at fourthturning.com's cookies.
6. I'm sure it spewed out enough info that I redacted that launching a SQL injection attack would be a breeze.

I just wonder how many networked BC/BS printers aren't password protected ?

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> It's rather amazing that security takes a back seat: I just went
> to one of my usual news sites and didn't do anything whatsoever to
> hack and got:

> 1. I don't even have a login to this place.

> 2. I just wonder how many other websites just spew out their
> database information if given some *invalid input?

> 3. I did not provide any input at all. I just went to a web page
> and it just spat this stuff out.

> 4. I think the only thing different about my PC is that I have
> several layers of security, like a blackhole list of servers like
> google-analytics.com , etc. I also run software which smashes
> cookies. My PC is also hardened as per standards for a internet
> facing computer.

> 5. The problem with Swedish is just a coincidence , unless it's
> peaking at fourthturning.com's cookies.

> 6. I'm sure it spewed out enough info that I redacted that
> launching a SQL injection attack would be a breeze.

> I just wonder how many networked BC/BS printers aren't password
> protected ?

I'm personally aware of one company with a large database containing
thousands of unencrypted ss numbers, names and addresses. If it were
hacked, the database would be worth million of dollars in identity
theft targets. The company's servers have already been hacked, though
not [yet] the database. The company has been warned to encrypt the
data, but it's not being done because encrypting data does not yield
immediate sales. If the database gets hacked, the company will go
bankrupt, and the officers will face criminal charges.

This is going on all over the country and the world today. News
stories about disastrous hacks, such as Sony Pictures or Anthem
Inc. that I've written about, have no effect. I think these managers
don't care if their database gets hacked. They just want to make
sales and collect their bonuses and exercise their stock options, and
if disaster strikes they'll just get another job and do the same
things somewhere else.

And the programmers don't care because they're forced to work on
features that generate sales, and aren't being permitted to worry
about things like security.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I'm personally aware of one company with a large database containing
thousands of unencrypted ss numbers, names and addresses. If it were
hacked, the database would be worth million of dollars in identity
theft targets. The company's servers have already been hacked, though
not [yet] the database. The company has been warned to encrypt the
data, but it's not being done because encrypting data does not yield
immediate sales. If the database gets hacked, the company will go
bankrupt, and the officers will face criminal charges.

This is going on all over the country and the world today. News
stories about disastrous hacks, such as Sony Pictures or Anthem
Inc. that I've written about, have no effect. I think these managers
don't care if their database gets hacked. They just want to make
sales and collect their bonuses and exercise their stock options, and
if disaster strikes they'll just get another job and do the same
things somewhere else.

And the programmers don't care because they're forced to work on
features that generate sales, and aren't being permitted to worry
about things like security.

Yet I was always under the impression that the opposite was true, and that companies worried very heavily about security. Isn't that way most workplaces today take on a fortress-like mentality, where everyone has to wear ID, etc. They aren't the open environments that most were when I started in the work world. And let's not forget how often employees are required to change their passwords and make them so puzzling that we will all be in trouble if we begin losing our memories.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Yet I was always under the impression that the opposite was true, and that companies worried very heavily about security. Isn't that way most workplaces today take on a fortress-like mentality, where everyone has to wear ID, etc. They aren't the open environments that most were when I started in the work world. And let's not forget how often employees are required to change their passwords and make them so puzzling that we will all be in trouble if we begin losing our memories.

I worked for a company like that as a Unix admin/extranet person. The above is correct, except for a minor detail which I alluded to John about. This is the company where none of the networked printers was password protected.

Why is that such a big deal? There's a subtle hack involving any non password protected network device. You can just sashay up some printers and set the IP address of the printer to match the default gateway. After a few ARP [address resolution protocol ] requests every device on that printer(s) subnet will try to use the either the printer(s) as a gateway or latch on to the original, making for a random DOS [denial of service]. I didn't say anything because that would have been a bad career move. The fact that one knows of hacks is often seen as that person is a threat.

*** 4-Mar-15 World View -- Failure of Austrian bank portends major new round of euro crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Londoner takes amazing picture of weasel on flying woodpecker's back
• Failure of Austrian bank portends major new round of euro crisis
• Iran Revolutionary Guards commander leads Iraq's attack on Tikrit

****
**** Londoner takes amazing picture of weasel on flying woodpecker's back
****


Green woodpecker flying with brown weasel hitchhiking (Martin Le-May)


An amateur photographer, Martin Le-May, out for a stroll with his wife
on Sunday, had an amazing stroke of luck when he photographed a tiny
brown weasel on the back of a flying green woodpecker. Apparently,
the weasel had pounced on the woodpecker hoping for a meal, but the
woodpecker took flight.

Unlike many stories that I tell, this one had a happy ending. The
bird landed 20 meters in front of the photographer, and after a tumble
in the grass, the weasel ran off. Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Failure of Austrian bank portends major new round of euro crisis
****

Europeans are aware, though Americans are not, that when Austria's
Credit-Anstalt bank of Austria collapsed on May 11, 1931, the collapse
triggered mass panic and bank failures throughout central Europe, and
a worldwide banking crisis.

This isn't nearly as bad as the 1931 incident, but it's raising a lot
of concerns. The government of Austria announced over the weekend
that it was shutting down the Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank, rather than
spending an additional 7.6 billion euros of taxpayer money to bail it
out. 5.5 billion euros of taxpayer money has already been paid to the
bank up to this point, and a decision was made to stop the bleeding.

Hypo is not an ordinary bank. It's a so-called "bad bank" that was
set up to unwind bad debts that came out of the financial crisis in
2008. It has no depositors, so depositors will not lose any money.
However, many bondholders will lose a great deal, possibly leading to
a chain reaction of further bankruptcies.

One billion euros of the bank's debt is guaranteed by Austria's
federal government, and that will supposedly be honored. The province
of Carinthia, whose borrowing before 2008 was a large part of the
cause of the original failure, has guaranteed 10.2 billion euros of
debt, and it's doubtful how much of that will be honored. Finally,
there's 9.8 billion euros of unsecured debt that's essentially junk.
Of that 9.8 billion, almost one billion is due in March, so this
crisis will spiral fairly quickly.

The phrase that's being used is "bail-in." That is, the Austrian
government will no longer bail out the bank, and so all the investors
will be "bailed in" to cover the losses. Most of the losses will be
in funds managed by Pacific Investment Management Co., Deutsche Bank
AG and UBS AG. It is not known who the end investors are, but it's
thought that there will be repercussions, and possible further
bankruptcies.

Depositors were not "bailed in" by this event, because the bank has no
depositors. However, the action that the Austrian government took was
under a regulation called the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive
(BRRD), which allows a government to force both investors AND
depositors to lose their money.

Readers may recall that in March 2013, Cyprus was saved from
bankruptcy by an EU bailout, on condition that 60% of the savings
accounts of large depositors (mostly Russian oligarchs) be confiscated.
One of the outcomes of
the Cyprus crisis was implementation of the BRRD directive, which
could permit ANY depositor's money to be confiscated, under the right
circumstances.

I've repeatedly said that there is no solution to Greece's financial
crisis -- not that no solution has been found, but that no solution
even exists. No solution existed for Austria's financial crisis
either, and so investors are going to lose billions of euros of their
money, risking chain reaction bankruptcies. Sooner or later,
something like that will have to happen with Greece as well, and it's
good to remember that the current "compromise agreement" between
Europe and Greece expires in July, with no hope of a suitable
resolution at that time. Telegraph (London) and Forbes and Bloomberg

****
**** Iran Revolutionary Guards commander leads Iraq's attack on Tikrit
****

Ghasem Soleimani, a top general in Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps (IRGC), along with dozens of Iranian military advisers, is
overseeing the Iraqi army's attack on Tikrit, with the goal of
recapturing it from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).

The situation is potentially explosive, because you have Shia militias
fighting with Sunni tribes and militias over Tikrit, which was the
hometown of Sunni leader Saddam Hussein.

Glaringly absent from the operation is participation by US forces,
particularly US war planes, which have been striking ISIS targets
since last summer. According to the Pentagon, the Iraqis never made
any request for US air support.

News reports indicate that Iraqi forces are bogged down on the
outskirts of Tikrit, unable to make much headway. ISIS is striking
back with sniper gunfire and suicide bombings on Iraqi checkpoints to
slow down any advance on the city. If the Iraq army does enter the
city, then it will be street by street fighting by the Iranian-led
Shia militias against the Sunni tribes and militias. Indeed, many
Sunni citizens of Iraq have welcomed the invading ISIS militias as a
better alternative to the Shia-led government in Baghdad. AP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Martin Le-May, London,
Austria, Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank, Credit-Anstalt bank,
Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, BRRD, Cyprus, Greece,
Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Ghasem Soleimani, Tikrit, Saddam Hussein

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

> Yet I was always under the impression that the opposite was true,
> and that companies worried very heavily about security. Isn't that
> way most workplaces today take on a fortress-like mentality, where
> everyone has to wear ID, etc. They aren't the open environments
> that most were when I started in the work world. And let's not
> forget how often employees are required to change their passwords
> and make them so puzzling that we will all be in trouble if we
> begin losing our memories.

Forcing password changes is a simple prophylactic measure that every
company does, costs very little, provides little protection from
hacking, annoys the hell out of people, and yet makes management happy
because they think they're being proactive.

There are two hacking methods that defeat forcing password
changes:

• Watering hole attack. Hackers infect a widely used web site, or
  set up their own web site, and find ways (ads, e-mail) to encourage
  people to visit it, and click on something that installs malware.
  
• Phishing attack. Hacker sends company employee a carefully
  crafted e-mail message that looks like it came from another employee
  within the company, and tells the recipient to click on a link that
  downloads malware.

Phishing attacks were used in both the Sony Pictures and Anthem Inc
attacks.

Once the hacker gets into your network, changing passwords has no
effect at all, and the hacker can start downloading data. In some
cases, the hacker downloads data for months, undetected.

That's why it's important to encrypt data like ss numbers, names and
addresses. Even if the hacker gets the information, it's useless to
him if he can't decrypt it.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> I worked for a company like that as a Unix admin/extranet
> person. The above is correct, except for a minor detail which I
> alluded to John about. This is the company where none of the
> networked printers was password protected.

> Why is that such a big deal? There's a subtle hack involving any
> non password protected network device. You can just sashay up
> some printers and set the IP address of the printer to match the
> default gateway. After a few ARP [address resolution protocol ]
> requests every device on that printer(s) subnet will try to use
> the either the printer(s) as a gateway or latch on to the
> original, making for a random DOS [denial of service]. I didn't
> say anything because that would have been a bad career move. The
> fact that one knows of hacks is often seen as that person is a
> threat.

You're absolutely right. If you complain about security lapses, then
you'll be considered to be an annoyance that's affecting your
managers' bonuses, and you'll be fired for causing problems.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Forcing password changes is a simple prophylactic measure that every
company does, costs very little, provides little protection from
hacking, annoys the hell out of people, and yet makes management happy
because they think they're being proactive.

There are two hacking methods that defeat forcing password
changes:

• Watering hole attack. Hackers infect a widely used web site, or
  set up their own web site, and find ways (ads, e-mail) to encourage
  people to visit it, and click on something that installs malware.
• Phishing attack. Hacker sends company employee a carefully
  crafted e-mail message that looks like it came from another employee
  within the company, and tells the recipient to click on a link that
  downloads malware.

Phishing attacks were used in both the Sony Pictures and Anthem Inc
attacks.

Once the hacker gets into your network, changing passwords has no
effect at all, and the hacker can start downloading data. In some
cases, the hacker downloads data for months, undetected.

That's why it's important to encrypt data like ss numbers, names and
addresses. Even if the hacker gets the information, it's useless to
him if he can't decrypt it.



You're absolutely right. If you complain about security lapses, then
you'll be considered to be an annoyance that's affecting your
managers' bonuses, and you'll be fired for causing problems.

Force encryption across the board including any and all devices that can attach to the network. And screw BYOD, way too risky (in addition to the issues of who pays for what). Issue company devices with the encryption aps preinstalled. Any use of anything without encryption and you're fired immediately.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Force encryption across the board including any and all devices that can attach to the network. And screw BYOD, way too risky (in addition to the issues of who pays for what). Issue company devices with the encryption aps preinstalled. Any use of anything without encryption and you're fired immediately.

We do all of that, but there is a downside. The added complexity tends to create bottlenecks, lock-ups and crashes. It also makes trouble shooting harder, but that's IT's problem.

*** 5-Mar-15 World View -- Turkey and Armenia schedule conflicting WW I centennial commemorations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and Armenia schedule conflicting WW I centennial commemorations
• China continues its double-digit military spending increases

****
**** Turkey and Armenia schedule conflicting WW I centennial commemorations
****


British soldiers just before landing at Gallipoli in 1915

A major battle of World War I was the Battle of Gallipoli, which ran
from April 25, 1915, to January 9, 1916. Turkey has commemorated the
battle in the past on April 25.

According to Armenia, Turkey (the Ottoman Empire) committed a genocide
against Armenians, and the genocide began on April 24, 1915, when the
Young Turks government began deporting Armenians. Turkey denies that
there was a genocide. Armenia had scheduled a centennial
commemoration of the start of the deportations for next month on April
24.

Turkey responded last month by rescheduling its commemoration of the
Gallipoli campaign to April 24. Both countries have invited
dozens of international country leaders to their respective
commemorations, forcing every government to make a choice.

So far, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Britain's Prime
Minister David Cameron have already accepted Turkey's invitation;
meanwhile France's President François Hollande plans to attend the
events in Armenia.

In this context, Armenia is canceling an American-mediated 2009
agreement, the "Zurich Protocols," which would re-establish diplomatic
relations between the two countries, and re-open their mutual borders.
The agreement was signed in 2009, but neither country has ratified,
and now Armenia is canceling it once and for all.

A major reason why the Zurich Protocols were never ratified was
opposition by Azerbaijan. From 1988 to 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan
fought a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave of Azerbaijan, which
has a large Armenian population. Armenia won the war, and gained
control of about 15% of Azerbaijani territory, creating hundreds of
thousands of Azerbaijani refugees. That was the time when Azerbaijan
and Turkey closed their borders with Armenia and imposed a blockade,
closing off Armenia's trade routes to Europe and Asia. Today's Zaman and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Jamestown and News (Azerbaijan)

****
**** China continues its double-digit military spending increases
****

China announced on Wednesday that military spending will grow by 10.1%
in 2015. With the country's slowing economic growth, this was lower
than last year's growth rate of 12.2%, but it still comes after years
of very rapid military growth through double-digit increases. The
increases are thought likely to go towards increasing naval power with
anti-submarine ships and aircraft carriers, to further China's
strategy of using military power to annex territories in the East and
South China Seas that have historically belonged to other countries.

According to China's premier Li Keqiang:

<QUOTE>"We will comprehensively strengthen modern logistics,
step up national defense research and development of new- and
high-technology weapons and equipment, and develop defense-related
science and technology industries."<END QUOTE>

Although America's military budget has been declining, China's
aggressive military growth has spurred military budget increases in
many countries in the region, with significant increases
in India, Vietnam and Japan.

But China has been rapidly building its military for years with a
variety of weapons and missile systems that have no other purpose than
to preemptively strike American aircraft carriers, American military
bases, and American cities. Generational Dynamics predicts that China
is preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack
on the United States. AP
and Reuters




KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Turkey, Ottoman Empire,
World War I, Gallipoli, Azerbaijan, Zurich Protocols,
Nagorno-Karabakh, China, Li Keqiang, India, Vietnam,
Japan

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A major battle of World War I was the Battle of Gallipoli, which ran
from April 25, 1915, to January 9, 2016.

That's a long battle. Consider revising.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> That's a long battle. Consider revising.

The battles were longer in those days because they had to ride around
on horses.

Thanks for the correction.

*** 6-Mar-15 World View -- Khamenei's illness may signal generational policy change in Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Khamenei's illness may signal generational policy change in Iran
• Palestinians vote to end security agreement with Israel

****
**** Khamenei's illness may signal generational policy change in Iran
****


Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei (Reuters)

Several Arab media reports indicate that Iran's 76 year old Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has been hospitalized, and is in
critical condition after undergoing surgery for an advanced form of
prostate cancer.

If the reports are true, and if Khamenei does not recover, then
his death could trigger very significant changes in Iran's
policies.

As I've been writing for almost ten years, Iran is a schizophrenic
country. The old geezers, the survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution, are extreme hard-liners, trying to revive the widespread
revolutionary fervor that followed the Revolution. A generational
crisis war always unifies the entire population behind the leader,
with the intention of making sure that nothing so horrible should ever
happen again to their children or grandchildren. So they fall back
on the old out-of-date formulas that won them the revolution
-- particularly blaming everything on the United States.

The younger generations, who grew up after the war, think that the old
geezers are completely full of crap. This has been obvious since the
early 2000s, when Tehran college students started pro-Western
demonstrations. The young people like the West, like America, and
don't have anything against Israel. Furthermore, Khamenei has seemed
increasingly out of touch with reality in recent years. The result is
a chaotic political conflict between the generations that survived the
war versus the generations that grew up after the war. This is what
always happens during a generational Awakening era, like America in
the 1960s.

The death of Khamenei would trigger a major political conflict between
two groups of politicians representing, respectively, the two
generational positions. If Khamenei's successor is another hardliner,
then policies won't change. But it's quite possible that his
successor would be another Revolution survivor, but still a reformist.
For example, see "2-Nov-13 World View -- Growing power struggle in Iran may make Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the Supreme Leader"
. In that case, significant
policy changes would be a real possibility.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the "allies" would be the
West, along with India, Russia and Iran, while the "axis" would be
China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. The death of
Khamenei, when it occurs, would be a step in that direction. Jerusalem Post and Israel National News

****
**** Palestinians vote to end security agreement with Israel
****

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which governs the West
Bank, has voted on Thursday evening to end a security co-operation
agreement with Israel which dates back to the Oslo Accords of 1993.
The announcement calls for

<QUOTE>"[The suspension of] all forms of security
coordination given Israel’s systematic and ongoing non-compliance
with its obligations under signed agreements, including its daily
military raids throughout the State of Palestine, attacks against
our civilians and properties. ...

Israel, the occupying power in Palestine, must assume all its
responsibilities in accordance with its obligations under
international law."<END QUOTE>

The final decision will be made by Palestinian president Mahmoud
Abbas.

As bad as the relationship has been between the Israelis and the
Palestinians in the West Bank, the security agreement has kept it from
becoming even worse. The security agreement required the Palestinians
for policing the West bank, so that Israeli police would not have to
do so. It's possible that the Palestinian security forces have
prevented some terrorist attacks on Israeli targets.

An end to the security agreement would be a major new crisis in the
West Bank. There would be daily confrontations between the
Palestinians and the Israeli security forces, with a good chance that
the confrontations would spiral into a war, just as they have in Gaza.

The announcement is the latest in a string of tit-for-tat actions by
each side against the other. When the State of Palestine joined the International Criminal Court (ICC)

in December, Israel was infuriated and promised revenge.

In January, Israel retaliated by cutting payments to Palestinians
of fees and tax monies that Israel
collects on behalf of the Palestinians on a daily basis, something
like $100 million per month. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat
called the move an act of "piracy" and a "collective punishment"
against the Palestinian people:

The PLO has been unable to pay the salaries of government employees,
including the security forces, and so the new announcement is in
retaliation for the non-payment of these fees.

Every move by either side has to be interpreted as an attempt to
influence the Israeli elections that are coming on March 17. Israel's
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is withholding the funds in order to
increase his popularity with his right wing. The PLO announced the
end of the security agreement in the hope of get Netanyahu defeated.
Things should become clearer after March 17. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post and Al Bawaba (Palestine) and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
Palestine Liberation Organization, PLO, Israel, Palestine,
Mahmoud Abbas, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Saeb Erekat

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*** 7-Mar-15 World View -- Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan seek 'Sunni unity' versus Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan seek 'Sunni unity' versus Iran
• Turkey's Erdogan shuts out Al-Sisi and Egypt from discussions
• After a year, experts still guessing about Malaysia Airlines 370

****
**** Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan seek 'Sunni unity' versus Iran
****


Erdogan and Salman meet in Riyadh on March 2 (Reuters)

Iran's influence in the Mideast has been increasing rapidly in recent
weeks:

• Iran is openly taking the lead fighting against the Islamic
  State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in both Iraq
  and Syria, with the support of Hezbollah. This puts an Iranian force
  to the north of Saudi Arabia.
  
• In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis are consolidating their control
  of Sanaa, as Iran begins direct flight between Tehran and Sanaa, with
  the threat to supply the Houthis with men and weapons. This puts an
  Iranian-backed force to the south of Saudi Arabia.
  
• It's widely believed in the Mideast that Barack Obama is going to
  sign a deal with Iran that will permit the development of nuclear
  weapons, something that's particularly threatening to Saudi
  Arabia.

These fast-moving events are triggering fast-moving policy changes,
and sharpening the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide in the Mideast, as it
heads for a sectarian war.

Last week, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Saudi
Arabia's capital city Riyadh, and on Monday met with the new King of
Saudi Arabia, King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud. Pakistan’s Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif came to Riyadh later last week, also to meet
with King Salman. According to press reports, the main subjects of
discussion were plans to for Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, along
with other countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), to develop
strategic plans to seek "Sunni unity" to oppose Iran and, at the same
time, to fight ISIS.

The meetings will no doubt reaffirm previous agreements for Pakistan
to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable
missiles, if Iran develops a nuclear weapon.

An additional area of apparent agreement between Saudi Arabia and
Turkey is the need for a no-fly zone over Syria to prevent attacks by
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan has
repeatedly demanded this, in order to fight both ISIS and al-Assad,
while the Obama administration has firmly opposed it, wanting to fight
only ISIS. Al Monitor and The Nation/AFP (Pakistan) and Debka

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan shuts out Al-Sisi and Egypt from discussions
****

As we reported last week, reported last week,
Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi was also in
Riyadh last week visiting King Salman, but their paths didn't cross.

When Erdogan was asked whether he met with al-Sisi, he responded,
"You've got to be kidding." Erdogan is still furious at al-Sisi for
the 2013 coup that ousted Egypt's first popularly elected president,
Mohamed Morsi, along with his Muslim Brotherhood government. "After
the coup, I cannot justify sitting at the same table with him," he
added.

Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood has been a source of
tension in the region, negatively affecting Turkey's relations not
only with Egypt but also Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE). Salman's predecessor, King Abdullah II, who died in January,
was firmly opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, and sided with Egypt.
However, Salman appears to be moving away from Egypt and moving closer
to Turkey, which could mean a change in policy towards the
Brotherhood.

There is concern in Egypt of a cutoff of the billions of dollars
of aid that has been coming from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait
since the 2013 coup, if Salman turns against Egypt.

Long-time readers are aware that about ten years ago I predicted,
based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that China, Pakistan and
the Sunni Muslim countries would be the enemies of India, Russia,
Iran, Israel and the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world
war. This prediction was completely reasonable based on a
generational analysis that I've explained a number of times, but even
so, ten years ago, this prediction seemed fantastical. So it's been
quite startling, particularly in the last year, to see this prediction
come closer and closer to fruition, step by step.

However, the role of Egypt in this alignment has yet to be determined.
Recent trends indicate that Egypt will be aligned with the West rather
than the Sunni Gulf countries, but it's also possible that Egypt
itself will be split into warring factions. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Yeni Safak (Turkey) (trans) and Today's Zaman (Turkey)

****
**** After a year, experts still guessing about Malaysia Airlines 370
****

It was a year ago, on March 8, 2014, that Malaysia Airlines flight
370, on a trip from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, simply disappeared, and
has has not been found yet.

What I found most bizarre was the coverage of the disappearance by
people who had no clue what had happened. CNN was the most
spectacular about this, with 24x7 coverage. One "expert" would say it
had crashed into the South China Sea, another said it was hijacked and
had landed in the Mideast, and another said it was in the water just
south of India. It was one meaningless guess after another, filling
up hours of television. I turned it off pretty quickly, but not
before wondering why the experts didn't just say that the Martians had
gotten it, and leave it at that.

Still, the incident was a tragedy for Malaysia and for Malaysian
Airlines. The families of the passengers are still waiting for
some word, any word, about whether their loved ones had somehow
survived, or were confirmed dead. China's official
media criticized the Malaysian government's apparent incompetence
in handling the investigations, and there were demonstrations
outside the Malaysian embassy in Beijing.

And, of course, Malaysia Airlines suffered another disaster several
months later, when Russian-backed anti-government militias in eastern
Ukraine shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17, using a missile
supplied by Russia. Malay Mail Online and New York Daily News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan,
Egype, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Abdullah II, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Nawaz Sharif,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Houthis,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bashar al-Assad,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Malaysia, China, Malaysia Airlines flight 370,
Malaysia Airlines flight 17

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*** 8-Mar-15 World View -- Libya's two rival governments in unity talks to fight ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Libya's two rival governments in unity talks to fight ISIS
• UAE may replace Saudis as Egypt's most important Arab ally
• Boko Haram kills 58 in multiple bombings in Maiduguri, Nigeria
• Boko Haram declares allegiance to ISIS

****
**** Libya's two rival governments in unity talks to fight ISIS
****


Libyan police in Tripoli (Reuters)

Even a couple of weeks ago, it was unthinkable that Libya's
rival governments would be willing to sit down and talk to one
another.

Libya's elected parliament is in charge of the government that is
internationally recognized, and headquartered in Tobruk, in eastern
Libya. The rival government is the General National Congress (GNC),
headed by the Islamist-backed Libya Dawn faction, headquartered in
Libya's capital city, Tripoli, in western Libya. Previous attempts by
the United Nations to broker an agreement for a unity government have
broken down because neither side wanted to talk to the other.

But in the last few weeks, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has taken control of Sirte, where there are
now tanks in the streets and black ISIS flags are waving in the city
center. There are fears that ISIS will take control of some oil
facilities and export the oil to make money. Furthermore, the recent
publicity stunt where 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians were beheaded,
with the results shown in a gruesome posted video, have changed the
mood of the leaders of the two governments.

Although an agreement on a unity government is considered unlikely, on
Saturday representatives of the two governments were at least willing
to sit down and talk to one another. The UN-sponsored meetings are
taking place in Rabat, the capital city of Morocco. After Saturday's
meeting, both groups will return to Libya for consultations, and then
return to Rabat on Wednesday to sign a deal, if any.

If an agreement on a unity government is reached, then the European
Union has said it is prepared to provide some military help in
fighting ISIS. On Saturday, UN envoy Bernardino Leon called on the
European Union to mount a naval blockade of Libya that would prevent
the flow of weapons to ISIS and the illegal flow of oil from Libya.
However, the EU has resisted calls in the past for another kind of
blockade of Libya, to stem the flow of thousands of migrants from
Libya to Italy. Al Arabiya and Deutsche Welle and AP

****
**** UAE may replace Saudis as Egypt's most important Arab ally
****

In recent years, under King Abdullah II, Saudi Arabia has been Egypt's
greatest Arab supporter and benefactor. But Abdullah died in January,
and his successor King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud has been tilting
away from Egypt towards Turkey, as we've been reporting
in the last few days.

The issue that's inflamed differences among the Arab states,
especially since last summer's war between Gaza and Hamas, is the
status of the Muslim Brotherhood and it's offshoot Hamas. Last year,
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt considered the
Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist organization, while Qatar and
Turkey supported the Brotherhood. But King Salman has been openly
getting close to Turkey, potentially leaving Egypt out in the cold.
Turkey and Egypt have extremely hard and opposing positions on the
Muslim Brotherhood, and no one considers a rapprochement likely.

Egypt is the largest benefactor of UAE's aid, especially since the
July 2013 coup that ousted Egypt's democratically elected president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. In addition to
providing direct cash aid, the OPEC member has been building schools,
clinics, wheat silos and tens of thousands of homes, possibly creating
a million jobs in Egypt.

The relationship between UAE and Egypt may be deeper than just
supplying aid. According to leaked audio tapes obtain by Turkish
officials and released to the press, UAE was heavily involved in
bringing about the coup that ousted Morsi. The ouster was triggered
by huge anti-Morsi protests, and the leaked tapes indicate that the
protests were fomenting using funds provided by the UAE. A leaked
audio tape leaked last month contains a tirade by Egyptian official
Abbas Kamel describing the Gulf countries as 'half states' and
launching into a tirade of insults against the Qatari royal family.
AP and Telegraph (London) and Daily Sabah (Turkey) (2-Feb)

****
**** Boko Haram kills 58 in multiple bombings in Maiduguri, Nigeria
****

58 people were killed and hundreds injured on Saturday in five
coordinated suicide bombings in various parts of Maiduguri, the
largest city in northwest Nigeria, and the city that Boko Haram has
named as the intended capital city of its Islamic state.

The first bombing occurred when a female suicide bomber blew up her
vest in a crowded fish market at 11:20 am. An hour later, there was
another bombing at another crowded market. Shortly after 1:00 pm, a
third bombing occured at a busy bus terminal. The Nation Online (Nigeria)

****
**** Boko Haram declares allegiance to ISIS
****

Also on Saturday, Boko Haram issued an audio statement declaring its
allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). "We announce our allegiance to the Caliph ... and
will hear and obey in times of difficulty and prosperity, in hardship
and ease," said the statement. Officials are concerned that as ISIS
builds its international infrastructure, and gather resources and
military capabilities, Boko Haram and other linked terrorist groups
will be able to expand operations and control more quickly. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, General National Congress, GNC,
Libya Dawn, Rabat, Morocco, European Union, Bernardino Leon,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Saudi Arabia, Abdullah II, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Egypt, Turkey,
Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Gaza, Mohamed Morsi, Abbas Kamel,
Maiduguri, Nigeria, Boko Haram

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*** 9-Mar-15 World View -- Mali's capital city Bamako in shock after terror attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei makes public appearance on Sunday
• Mali's capital city Bamako in shock after terror attack
• Are ISIS and Boko Haram 'far right' extremists?

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei makes public appearance on Sunday
****


Khamenei in a meeting at his home in Tehran on Sunday (AP)

Three days ago I wrote "6-Mar-15 World View -- Khamenei's illness may signal generational policy change in Iran"
, in which I referred to media reports that Iran's 76
year old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has been
hospitalized in critical condition with prostate cancer. I described
significant policy changes in Iran that his death could trigger due to
generational differences between the survivors of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the generations that grew up after the
revolution. Since then, the media reports have morphed into
widespread rumors of Khamenei's death.

However, Khamenei was well enough on Sunday to participate in a
meeting in his home with environmental activists. The television
pictures that aired made him look comfortable and healthy. So it
looks like we're going to have to wait a little longer for that policy
change. The National (UAE)/AP

****
**** Mali's capital city Bamako in shock after terror attack
****

Northern Mali has been bloodied repeatedly starting in 2012, with a
separatist rebellion by the ethnic Tuaregs, which was overtaken by
terrorist attacks by the al-Qaeda linked Ansar Dine, and then further
attacks by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The Islamist
attacks resulted in the destruction in Timbuktu of centuries-old
shrines and mosques, along with tens of thousands of ancient
manuscripts.

But through all of that, Mali's capital city Bamako, in southern Mali,
has escaped the chaos, until Saturday. Residents of Bamako were
stunned to hear that a masked gunman sprayed bullets into La Terrasse
restaurant and bar killing five people, including a Frenchman and a
Belgian. The AQIM-linked terror group Al Mourabitoun (The Sentinels),
led by Algerian terroris Moktar Belmoktar, claimed responsibility,
saying that it was "to avenge our prophet against the unbelieving West
which has insulted and mocked him," and in revenge for the killing of
a leader of the Al Mourabitoun group in a French-Malian military
operation.

In addition to five deaths, there were seven people injured, including
two international experts working for the United Nations. No sooner
did the UN put out a statement condemning the attack in Bamako,
terrorists attacked a UN base in northern Mali with 30 rockets and
shells targeting the base, killing one UN soldier and two civilian
children.

As I've been describing for months, there is a large and growing
Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia,
and it seems to worsen in one way or another every week. This is
a strong historical trend, and at some point it will pull us
and the West into it.
Irish Independent and United Nations and AFP

****
**** Are ISIS and Boko Haram 'far right' extremists?
****

Fawaz Gerges, London School of Economics, occasionally appears on news
shows analyzing Mideast events. Appearing on al-Jazeera on Sunday,
Gerges was asked to comment on Friday's announcement by Boko Haram that
it was pledging allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The interview was interesting on a couple of levels. Gerges said that
Boko Haram was so extremist, that al-Qaeda would not be interested,
while ISIS has not been interested in the past, though may be changing
its mind. The interview was also interesting for Gerges's bizarre
characterization of ISIS and Boko Haram as "far-right extremists." My
transcription:

<QUOTE>"Ironically, in the last few months, ISIL has not
really responded to the many messages by Boko Haram (BK) praising
ISIL, and that tells me that even ISIL, one of the most extremist
jihadist organizations, have viewed BK as a liability.

But my take now if you ask me if Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the leader
of ISIL, would accept the fealty of BK, I would say yes. Yes,
because it's a win-win.

It shows ISIL as the leader of the global jihadist movement, that
jihadists near and far, in particular militant activists, whether
you're talking about Egypt or Yemen or Algeria or Afghanistan or
Pakistan, and now Boko Haram, are basically praising and saying
they want to be part of this winning horse. ISIL is being seen as
a winning horse, as a powerful organization.

And even if ISIL accepts the allegiance or the fealty by BK, then
little will change. Remember, BK is desperate for legitimization.
It would like to be part of ISIL which is seen as a basically
winning horse, but nothing would change on the ground.

But the reality is you're talking about ISIL and BK, two sides of
the same coin, really on the far right of the jihadist movement,
and would argue that Ayman al-Zawarhiri, the leader of al-Qaeda
central, would really hesitate to accept any kind of allegiance
from BK, because BK is seen as ISIL is seen as very extremist,
very nihilistic, really on the far right of all militant
organizations that exist today."<END QUOTE>

Gerges very clearly emphasized the phrase "far right," even repeating
it, and so we have to assume that Gerges wants to burnish his own far
left credentials. Gerges holds the Emirates Chair in Contemporary
Middle Eastern Studies at the London School of Economics and Political
Science and in today's society, political scientists are almost always
far left.

But what makes it so bizarre is that "right" and "left," as applied to
politics, is a European concept, and it doesn't really make any sense
outside of Europe (and North America) because politics is so different
in other regions. In the Mideast, if ISIS is "far right," then who's
"far left"? Al-Qaeda? Hezbollah? Iran? It's an almost meaningless
question.

But it's also bizarre for another reason. In the French Revolution,
where the terms "left" and "right" were first applied to politics, the
extremists perpetrating the Reign of Terror were on the left, while
the politicians on the right opposed it. So it's hard to see how ISIS
and Boko Haram could be called "far right" in any conceivable sense.

I guess you can't trust anyone these days (except me) not to put an
ideological spin on something where it doesn't even make sense.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Mali, Bamako, La Terrasse, Al Mourabitoun, The Sentinels,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Moktar Belmoktar,
Fawaz Gerges, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
French Revolution, Reign of Terror

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Let's see how ISIS compares to fascist movements. Lawrence Britt has one set of characteristics that fit almost all fascist states:

Lawrence Britt wrote:

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.

(The Islamic State has its flags and symbols everywhere that it rules).

2.Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.

(Undeniable!)

3.Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.

(Plenty of enemies and scapegoats, all right)

4.Supremacy of the Military
Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.

(ISIS doesn't look like a welfare state by any stretch of the imagination, and it seems to funnel all resources into war).

5.Rampant Sexism
The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy.

(Feminists and homosexuals are murdered. Rape is all but official as a tool of social change and obliteration of minorities).

6.Controlled Mass Media
Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.

(If ISIS leadership does not approve of something, it does not get preached, taught, or shown).

7.Obsession with National Security
Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.

(Obey or die -- not exclusively a fascist trait. Bingo!)

8.Religion and Government are Intertwined
Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions.

(It may be a perverse form of Islam, but it rules. Accept it, flee, or die).

9.Corporate Power is Protected
The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.

(ISIS' economics seem vague enough that I can't characterize ISIS as capitalist).

10.Labor Power is Suppressed
Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed

(I can't imagine anyone getting away with any effort to address economic realities where ISIS rules).

11.Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts.

(Art? Art is so sinful that it must be destroyed! Thought outside of the strictures of ISIS is cause for execution).

12.Obsession with Crime and Punishment
Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.

(ISIS has a police state that goes beyond even Nazi Germany in thoroughness).

13.Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.

(Everything is for sale so long as it supports the war machine. I would not be surprised if the leaders aren't pocketing much of what they loot).


14.Fraudulent Elections
Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

(These creeps don't even bother with elections).

Every one of Britt's traits of fascism is pathology, and fascism is political pathology in its purest. To be sure, much of what applies to fascistic regimes also applied to Iraq under Satan Hussein and under Assad pere and fils in Syria -- and in most Communist states, although in the latter the Commies pretend to be the vanguard of the proletariat instead of defenders of extant elites from before the takeover.

That's a very interesting list, but it also applies to the socialist
governments in China, Russia and North Korea, so it's not clear to me
why this is being called a list of "fascist" properties. It pretty
much applies to every dictatorship.

However, the reason that Boko Haram cannot be called a fascist state
is because it's not a state. If the government of Nigeria were doing
all those things, then Nigeria would be a fascist state.

But Boko Haram is an anti-government revolutionary movement conducting
a "Reign of Terror." As I said, I don't think a left-right
designation makes any sense at all, but if you had to pick one, it
would have to be left.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

That's a very interesting list, but it also applies to the socialist
governments in China, Russia and North Korea, so it's not clear to me
why this is being called a list of "fascist" properties. It pretty
much applies to every dictatorship.

However, the reason that Boko Haram cannot be called a fascist state
is because it's not a state. If the government of Nigeria were doing
all those things, then Nigeria would be a fascist state.

But Boko Haram is an anti-government revolutionary movement conducting
a "Reign of Terror." As I said, I don't think a left-right
designation makes any sense at all, but if you had to pick one, it
would have to be left.

Boko Haram left? I would say ultra-reactionary right. They want to turn the clock back to the 7th century. That is hardly "left" in any sense of the word.

You are correct in that the term "right", which implies "conservatism" also does not apply. They aren't trying to "conserve" anything.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Let's see how ISIS compares to fascist movements. Lawrence Britt has one set of characteristics that fit almost all fascist states:

Lawrence Britt wrote:

of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.

9.Corporate Power is Protected
The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.

(ISIS' economics seem vague enough that I can't characterize ISIS as capitalist).

Being that Islamic economics is radically different from capitalism, I think this alone disqualifies ISIS as Fascist. Vile and repressive yes, but not strictly Fascist, although it shares many features with Fascism.

Just my two cents.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Boko Haram left? I would say ultra-reactionary right. They want to turn the clock back to the 7th century. That is hardly "left" in any sense of the word.

You are correct in that the term "right", which implies "conservatism" also does not apply. They aren't trying to "conserve" anything.

It is not Left, it is not Right, It is just Wrong.

I know several of the Leftists who participate here will disagree with the following, however ...

In my book, Left means revolutionary and means wanting to overthrow the current. Right means conservative and wanting to preserve the current or at least the good things about the current. Naturally, these op defs are the old Euro ones. Americans and some others have bastardized these op defs and made them meaningless.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

I know several of the Leftists who participate here will disagree with the following, however ...

In my book, Left means revolutionary and means wanting to overthrow the current. Right means conservative and wanting to preserve the current or at least the good things about the current. Naturally, these op defs are the old Euro ones. Americans and some others have bastardized these op defs and made them meaningless.

There is the hard left and the "left of center" left. Most people who paint themselves blue would fall into the second group; they want to take what we have and improve on it. One example -- instead of getting rid of marriage, expand it to include gays. Make college more affordable so that more people can have the opportunity to attend college. You get my drift.

The same would apply to the right. A true conservative wants to "conserve" the status quo and may resist the type of changes that the left of center is pushing. Would expanding marriage to gays fundamentally change the nature of marriage? Would making college more affordable degrade the value of a college degree?

I see the hard left as seeing the problems with the current system as unfixable and wanting to tear it down and build a utopia from scratch. The hard right agrees that the problems are unfixable and that the system should be torn down, but they want to replace it with some idealized vision of the past, be it the radical free market prior to the New Deal (radical libertarians) or the Caliphate (ISIS or Boko Haram).

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

> Boko Haram left? I would say
> ultra-reactionary right. They want to turn the clock back to the
> 7th century. That is hardly "left" in any sense of the word.

> You are correct in that the term "right", which implies
> "conservatism" also does not apply. They aren't trying to
> "conserve" anything.

I guess you could call Boko Haram "ultra-reactionary right" if you
want, but then you'd really have to call the French Revolution
revolutionaries "ultra-reactionary right" as well.

They're both anti-government revolutionary movements. They both chop
off the heads of anyone they like, one with the guillotine and one
with swords. They both wanted to turn the clock to an earlier
century, or at least back to the violence of the preceding
generational crisis war.

This whole discussion reminds me of what one teacher, probably a
history teacher, said when I was in school in the 50s, at a time when
WW II was very fresh in everyone's mind. She said that the difference
between Communim and Fascism was that even when they were both
dictatorships, Communist governments owned businesses, while in
Fascism private individuals owned the businesses.

It's hard to know why, of the millions of sentences that I heard from
teachers in school, that one has stuck in my mind, but I think that
even at that tender age where I didn't really know what was going on,
there was a part of my mind that knew it was bullshit. Since
businesses in both cases have to do as the governments command, what
difference does it make who owns them?

In the 50s, Communism was cool, and Fascism was evil, so it was
necessary for the cool people to explain this difference. This was
particularly true after the McCarthy hearings. And it was a
particular embarrassment to the cool people that the z in Nazi stands
for "socialist."

But to the cool people, it never made any difference that Stalin
purposely starved millions of people in Ukraine, or that the cool
people's hero, Mao Zedong, killed tens of millions of people through
starvation, slaughter and executions during the Great Leap Forward.
Rivers of blood don't matter much to the cool people who love
Communism. After all, you have to break some eggs to make an omelet.

In recent decades, a lot of Chinese businesses have been taken over by
private individuals. I assume, according to my 1950s teacher, that
China is now a Fascist country. But I doubt that she'd agree, given
that fact that she was cool.

At any rate, if Boko Haram is Fascist right-wing, then so are China,
Russia, and North Korea. And President Obama isn't a budding
socialist, after all. He's a budding right-wing Fascist.