*** 22-Mar-15 World View -- Yemen calls for general military mobilization, as US forces withdraw

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Computer geek activists demonstrate against robots at SXSW
• Yemen's Houthi-controlled Supreme Revolutionary Committee calls for 'general mobilization'
• US military forces evacuating Yemen, fearing AQAP attacks

****
**** Computer geek activists demonstrate against robots at SXSW
****


Stop the Robots T-shirt

Chanting things like, "You say robot, I say no-bot!" and "Humans are
the future!", anti-robot activists protested against robots at the
South by Southwest (SXSW) conference in Austin, Texas, last week.

The protesters expressed concern that robots would take over people's
jobs, and other dangers associated with uncontrolled growth and
development around artificial intelligence and robotics. However,
they insist that they don't want to stop the progress of technology.

The protesters referred to statements by Stephen Hawking and Tesla
found Elon Musk warning about the danger of a dark future with
intelligent robots.

What the protesters are talking about is the Singularity, the point in
time when computers will be more intelligent and more creative than
humans. At that point there will be a sharp bend in the technology
curve, since super-intelligent computers will be able to develop new
technologies exponentially faster than humans, including technologies
to make themselves faster. After that, they will essentially be
running the world.

Ten years ago, I estimated that the Singularity would occur around
2030, and I have had no reason to adjust that estimate, as I wrote in
2010 in "27-Dec-10 News -- IBM vs Jeopardy! brings robotic warfare and the Singularity closer,"
.

However, it really makes no difference what these protesters say. The
first use of any new technology is in warfare, it seems likely that
robots will be making kill decisions on their own by the early 2020s.
Even if the United States halted development of super-intelligent
robots, development would continue in China, India, Europe, Japan, and
elsewhere in the world. So the Singularity is coming whether the
protesters like it or not. USA Today and Tech Crunch

****
**** Yemen's Houthi-controlled Supreme Revolutionary Committee calls for 'general mobilization'
****

Yemen's Iran-back ethnic Houthis, who have been in control of the
capital city Sanaa since late last year, have ordered for a "general
mobilization," through a statement from their Supreme Revolutionary
Committee. The call was for land, marine and air forces to confront
and eradicate terrorism, referring to the double suicide bombing
that killed 137 people during Friday
prayers at two Shia mosques in Sanaa. However, it's believed that the
real target of the mobilization is Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, the
internationally recognized president of Yemen, who fled last month
from Sanaa to the southern city of Aden, where he's being supported by
Sunni tribes.

It's believed that the general mobilization means that Houthi forces,
combined with militias loyal to former Shia president Ali Abdullah
Saleh, will deploy to the south to attack Hadi and his forces. There
have already been air strikes in Aden ordered by the Houthis, who have
taken control of the air force. However, there have been reports that
the pilots of the warplanes dumped their bombs into the water,
indicating that they're not loyal to the Houthis.

Another possible complication is the present of two Sunni terrorist
groups, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). There have been
reports of them fighting each other, and there have been other reports
of them cooperating to target Houthis.

There's also a group of militias known as the "Southern Secessionist
Movement" that are advocating splitting Yemen into two countries,
South Yemen and North Yemen, as was the case prior to 1990. These
militias are reported to be fighting alongside AQAP and/or alongside
Hadi's supporters against the Houthis.

Fears are growing for a wider civil war in Yemen very soon. As I've
been reporting, there is already a large, growing war of Muslims
versus Muslims in northern Africa, the Mideast, and south Asia, and
this war is going to continue to grow until it's a full-fledged
sectarian war engulfing the entire region. SABA (Yemen/Houthi) and
Press TV (Tehran) and Anadolu (Turkey)

****
**** US military forces evacuating Yemen, fearing AQAP attacks
****

The United States is evacuating the last of its troops and special
forces units from Yemen, where they are stationed at Al Anad air base
in southern Yemen, near the city of al-Houta. The reason for the
quick withdrawal is that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
seized the city of al-Houta on Friday, raising concerns about an
attack on the air base itself. The American forces have been training
Yemen's military forces in counterterrorism operations, and have also
been gathering intelligence to target AQAP terrorists and other
militants from US airstrikes. CNN and
NBC News

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South by Southwest, SXSW, Singularity,
Tesla, Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking,
Yemen, Houthis, Sanaa, Aden, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Iran,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 23-Mar-15 World View -- Yemen's Houthis capture Taiz, advance south to fight Hadi's forces in Aden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen's Houthis capture Taiz, advance south to fight Hadi's forces in Aden
• UN Security Council urges 'peaceful dialog' in Yemen
• France's center-right party edges out far-right National Front in elections

****
**** Yemen's Houthis capture Taiz, advance south to fight Hadi's forces in Aden
****


Houthis fire tear gas at anti-Houthi protesters in Taiz on Sunday (Reuters)

The Iran-backed ethnic Houthis that captured and occupied Yemen's
capital city Sanaa last year are following up from Friday's announce military mobilization

have seized much of the city of Taiz and the surrounding province.
They've taken control of the airport and security and
intelligence buildings in Taiz, and have set up checkpoints in
the area.

Yemen's internationally recognized president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi
was forced last month to flee Sanaa, which is Yemen's largest city and
is in in the north of Yemen, to Aden, which is Yemen's second largest
city, and is a port city in the south of Yemen. Taiz is Yemen's third
largest city, and it's located about halfway between Sanaa and Aden,
so it's a critical waypoint on the Houthis' planned assault on Hadi's
forces in Aden.

The Houthis have been using Yemen's air force for bombing strikes on
Aden every day since Thursday. Now that the Houthis have control of
Taiz airport, it's expected that further air strikes will be launched
from there.

It now seems unavoidable that within the next few days there will be a
sectarian civil war between the Shia Houthis versus Hadi's Sunni
tribal militias. This will be further complicated by the presence in
Yemen of two Sunni terrorist groups, the Islamic State / of Iraq and
Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP).

The Houthis are now in control of the army and air force, and they're
backed by Iran which is suspected of shipping additional weapons to
them. Saudi Arabia and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) have expressed deep dismay at the Shia takeover of
Yemen, but it remains to be seen whether they take any military action
to counter it. If they do, then the result will be a sectarian proxy
war in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The National (UAE) and CNN and
AFP and AP

****
**** UN Security Council urges 'peaceful dialog' in Yemen
****

Jordan called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on
Sunday to discuss the "rapid downward spiral" in Yemen. According to
special Yemen envoy Jamal Benomar:

<QUOTE>"Emotions are running extremely high and, unless
solutions can be found, the country will fall into further violent
confrontations. Events in Yemen are leading the country away from
political settlement and to the edge of civil war. ...

I urge all sides in this time of rising tension and inflammatory
rhetoric to appreciate the gravity of the situation and deescalate
by exercising maximum restraint. Peaceful dialogue is the only
way forward."<END QUOTE>

According to one web site, "peaceful dialog" means "to create a
consciousness among members of society – through multilayer dialogue –
that they are responsible for peace and that they are vested with the
right to demand peace. Peace Dialogue strives to create the conditions
for mutual cooperation and support between members of conflicting
societies who see no alternative except the peaceful resolution of
conflicts. This is achieved through the development of civil
peacebuilding potential, strengthening respect for human rights and
democratic values, promoting civil peace initiatives, and advocating
on behalf of victims of conflict."

So, now that the UN Security Council is on the job, advocating
peaceful dialog, we can all feel relieved that the problems in Yemen
are over. After all, as we all know, war never solves anything.
United Nations and Anadolu (Turkey)

****
**** France's center-right party edges out far-right National Front in elections
****

Marine Le Pen's far-right Front National party did well in Sunday's
elections, but not well enough to defeat Nicolas Sarkozy's
center-right UMP party in regional elections in France on Sunday.
(The phrase "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.)
The stridently anti-immigrant, anti-EU, "anti-Islamization" Front
National party has been surging in polls, and many European officials
had been concerned that they would win.

President François Hollande and his Socialist Party government have
been plummeting in the polls in recent months, so never expected to do
well in these regional elections. So, in a surprise move, the
Socialists teamed up with the UMP party to issue dire warnings about
Front National. Marine Le Pen derided the tactic as "trying to lead a
campaign against the people, a filthy and violent campaign that
stigmatized millions of French voters."

According to initial projections, the UMP received 31% of the vote,
National Front received 24.5%, and the Socialists received 19.7%.

However, this wasn't the final election. There will be a second
election next Sunday, March 29, pitting the top two parties from this
election, UMP and Front National. The winner of next Sunday's
election will determine which leader, Nicolas Sarkozy or Marine Le
Pen, will be most likely to win the 2017 presidential election.

Feminists should be jumping for joy over this election. Voters don't
select an individual, but they select a pair of candidates, one man
and one woman. This should guarantee that half of those elected will
be women. AFP and VOA and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Taiz, Sanaa, Aden,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Iran,
United Nations, Jamal Benomar,
France, Front National, Marine Le Pen, UMP, Nicolas Sarkozy,
François Hollande

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*** 24-Mar-15 World View -- Iraq's battle for Tikrit reaches a standstill, humiliating Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq's battle for Tikrit reaches a standstill, humiliating Iran
• Disorganization plagues Iraq's soldiers assaulting Tikrit
• Correction to yesterday's report on France's elections
• Greece's Tsipras visits Germany's Merkel and demands reparations

****
**** Iraq's battle for Tikrit reaches a standstill, humiliating Iran
****


Hadi Al-Amiri, head of Iraq's Badr Brigade of Shia militias, calls Iraq's army 'weaklings'

Iraq's military operation to recapture the city of Tikrit from the
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) apparently stalled a week
ago. The military operation, which began on March 2, comprise 10,000
troops from Iraq's army, aided by 20,000 fighters from Shia militias,
as well as special forces from Iran led by Iran's legendary Al Qods
Brigades chief, the Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

The plan was to take Tikrit within a week or so, and then move on to a
much larger battle to capture Mosul. The Iraqi forces reached the
outskirts of Tikrit, and captured some neighboring villages, but were
blocked from entering Tikrit, according to reports, by ISIS snipers
and huge numbers of IEDs and bombs along the roads, causing hundreds
of casualties.

There are a lot of reputations riding on a quick victory in Tikrit.
At the beginning, the Iraqi soldiers dropped their arms and fled
instead of fighting, and now some are saying that they're refusing to
fight in Tikrit. A stalemate in Tikrit would be a major humiliation
to Iran and to Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was expected to pull off a
quick, brilliant victory, but who has now retreated to Tehran,
according to reports. Finally, a stalemate would be an embarrassment
to the president Barack Obama's administration, which is counting on a
Tikrit victory -- or anything, anything, that might slow the
continuing humiliation to the administration for seeing Iraq fall
under the control of ISIS. Obama completely withdrew American forces,
allowing ISIS to take control again, after president George Bush
ejected al-Qaeda in Iraq with his "surge."

In fact, with Baghdad, Tehran and Washington all facing humiliation
from a potential stalemate in Tikrit, the only group that would look
like a winner if the stalemate continues would be ISIS. BBC and
Newsweek

****
**** Disorganization plagues Iraq's soldiers assaulting Tikrit
****

Iraqi officials point out that the military operation only began
three weeks ago, so even if the initial projections were optimistic,
there is still plenty of time for victory in Tikrit.

However, fundamental problems were exposed last weekend in
the Iraqi effort.

From the start of the operation, both Iraq and Iran had explicitly
rejected any help for US and coalition forces, such as air strikes.
However, last weekend, as the operation on Tikrit hit a brick wall,
Iraqi General Abdulwahab al-Saadi, who commands the Iraqi army forces
in the area, indicated that he favored asking the Americans for help:
"Of course... the Americans have advanced equipment, they have AWACS
(surveillance) aircraft."

However, Hadi Al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Brigade of Iraq's Shia
militias, slammed al-Saadi's remarks, saying:

<QUOTE>"Some of the weaklings in the army... say we need the
Americans, while we say we do not need the
Americans."<END QUOTE>

If you have one part of Iraq's forces referring to the other part as
"weaklings," then at the very least you have low morale and no unified
command. The hodge-podge of Iraqi forces conducting the assault on
Tikrit may simply not be up to the job.

If the stalemate continues, then someone will have to reassess, and
throw more forces into the battle. These might come in the form of
troops or airstrikes from Iran, or a request for troops and airstrikes
from the American-led coalition. But there are too many reputations
at stake for the situation in Tikrit to continue as it is. France24/Reuters and AFP and International Business Times

****
**** Correction to yesterday's report on France's elections
****

A reader pointed out that I made some mistakes in the details of
France's elections in yesterday's report:

<QUOTE>"They were in fact departmental elections: regional
elections are scheduled for next December. France using a two-round
system, the important day is next Sunday when the second round will
take place. Constitutionally, the most important is that we are for
the first time electing a pair of two councilors (a man and a
woman) for each canton. Politically, the important questions are
"will the Front National for the first time get the presidency of a
département?" and how many départements the Left will keep
(Hollande is so unpopular nobody expects the Left to
win)."<END QUOTE>

****
**** Greece's Tsipras visits Germany's Merkel and demands reparations
****

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras visited German Chancellor
Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday, and after the meeting there were
smiles and handshakes and apparent good will.

However, at the post-meeting press conference, Tsipras raised the
issue of payment of reparations as compensation for Nazi atrocities
during World War II. Merkel answered sharply, "In the German
government’s view, the issue of reparations is politically and legally
closed."

The disagreement comes during a major run on Greece's banks, with 1.1
billion euros flowing out of Greek banks in the last three days alone.
Greece has to pay pensions and government employees, and it's believed
that without an infusion of new bailout loans the country will go
bankrupt early in April.

According to research by Der Spiegel, Greece may have a good
case for demanding payments from the Germans. Besides possible
compensation for Nazi atrocities, there may be payments due for forced
loans that the Nazi occupiers extorted Greece's central bank beginning
in 1941. By 1944, the forced loans may have totaled as much as 300
billion drachmas. The Greek currency suffered hyperinflation during
WW II, so all in all, 300 billion drachmas may be worth something like
$10 million, not really enough to solve Greece's financial crisis.
Greek Reporter and Guardian (London) and Der Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Hadi al-Amiri, Badr Brigade,
Tikrit, Iran, Al Qods Brigads, Qassam Soleimani, Mosul,
Abdulwahab al-Saadi, France, Front National,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Germany, Angela Merkel

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*** 25-Mar-15 World View -- Almost all mosques have been destroyed in Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Almost all mosques have been destroyed in Central African Republic
• Russia finally begins to grasp the danger posed by ISIS

****
**** Almost all mosques have been destroyed in Central African Republic
****


File photo, 10-Dec-2013: A Christian mob attacks a mosque in Bangui (AP)

Almost all of the 436 mosques in the Central African Republic (CAR)
have been destroyed by months of bloody fighting between Christians
and Muslims, according to Samantha Power, US ambassador to the United
Nations.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, Francois Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, who became president and served until January
2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed Francois Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the
vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against
the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been
committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced. Susan Rice called the destruction of almost all mosques in
the country "kind of crazy, chilling."

A European Union one-year military mission in CAR that was launched in
April 2014 is now coming to an end. General Philipe Ponties, who led
the mission, said he was satisfied with the outcome:

<QUOTE>"We are leaving a city [the capital city Bangui] to
which peace has been restored and in which a political process is
now in motion. People are now leaving the refugee camps and the
internally displaced are returning to their homes. I have the
impression that we have accomplished our mission. ...

The mission was charged with securing the airport and parts of the
capital, Bangui, and with providing assistance for the setting up
of a UN mission in the country."<END QUOTE>

According to Ponties, these goals have been more or less achieved.

This is really an incredibly bizarre conclusion. Bangui may be the
capital city of CAR, but it's just one city in a country with enormous
land area, and atrocities are continuing by both Christians and
Muslims across the entire country. Even in Bangui, there are still
marauding gangs of murderers who will now have a free hand now that
the EUFOR troops are leaving.

Just this weekend, there was massive violence in the central part of
the country, near the town of Kaga-Bandoro. Violence broke out when
Muslim herders noticed that their cattle had been stolen. In
retaliation, Muslim Seleka militias ransacked several Christian
villages, killing 11 people. In a country as vast as CAR, these kinds
of attacks might occur every day, and the outer world would never
know.

The worst is yet to come in CAR, and as in the case of every
generational crisis war, the war will not end until there's some kind
of explosive climax that will be remembered for decades or centuries.
AP and Deutsche Welle and AP

****
**** Russia finally begins to grasp the danger posed by ISIS
****

Russia's government, whose unlimited support for the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad is a major reason for the existence of the
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), is
suddenly discovering that ISIS is a threat to Russia itself.

At a recent top-level meeting in Moscow of the Russian Security
Council, Nikolai Patrushev is quoted as saying:

<QUOTE>"We should take extra care about the threat posed by
militants involved in the conflict on the side of the terrorist
groups and returning from those hot spots. It is no secret that a
large number of mercenaries from Russia are fighting overseas
today in the ranks of those bandit groups. [As] they return home,
they might bring the skills of sophisticated terrorism to our
land, including those characteristic of the group that calls
itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant [ISIL]."<END QUOTE>

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov was quoted as
saying:

<QUOTE>"[ISIS] does not respect state boundaries. ... It is
like a cancer, a metastasis, growing in different directions. This
is all very worrying and concerns us too, concerns the interests of
our national security and that of our friends in the
region."<END QUOTE>

Russian propagandists claim that the West finances ISIS militants to
weaken Russia, while even ordinary citizens know that 90 percent of
the militants’ resources are of local origin, such as racketeering,
sharia taxes (zakat), voluntary contributions by sympathizers, payoffs
from officials, etc.

In fact, Russia can take a great deal of the credit for the rise of
ISIS in the first place.

ISIS was created in a very specific way: by turning Syria into a
magnet for jihadists worldwide who wanted to fight al-Assad, after he
started his genocidal assault on innocent Syrian women and children,
starting in 2011. There are thousands of young men and women who are
citizens of America and Europe, as well as Asia and Africa, who have
traveled or are traveling to Syria to join ISIS. That problem didn't
exist during the Bush administration, or in the first term of the
Obama administration. That problem began specifically when al-Assad
started slaughtering innocent Syrian women and children. And al-Assad
would have been long gone by now, except that Russia provided him with
billions of dollars in heavy weapons that al-Assad could use to
slaughter innocent Syrian women and children.

That's the specific cause and effect that led to the creation of ISIS.
The primary blame goes to Bashar al-Assad, who is guilty of war crimes
and crimes against humanity. Secondary blame goes to Russia's
president Vladimir Putin, for supplying heavy weapons to al-Assad, and
also to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, for
supplying troops and weapons to al-Assad. Both Putin and Khamenei are
war criminals because they supplied the weapons and manpower to
al-Assad, knowing full well that al-Assad was committing war crimes
and crimes against humanity.

So now Iran has to fight ISIS soldiers in Iraq, and Russia is finally
noticing that ISIS soldiers from Syria are headed back to commit acts
of terror on Russian soil. Both Russia and Iran deserve what happens
to them. Unfortunately, it's going to happen to everyone else as
well, and the rest of us don't deserve it. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Samantha Power, Francois Bozizé, Michel Djotodia,
Philipe Ponties, EUFOR,
Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nikolai Patrushev,
Mikhail Bogdanov, Vladimir Putin, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 26-Mar-15 World View -- US announces military operations: with Iran in Iraq, with Saudis in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US joins Iran and Iraq in fighting ISIS in Tikrit
• Saudi Arabia begins airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen
• Obama administration continues to hail Yemen as a model

****
**** US joins Iran and Iraq in fighting ISIS in Tikrit
****


Saudi King Salman ordered a 'sweeping military operation' into Yemen on Wednesday

As we reported a couple of days ago,
the attempt by Iraq's army, supported by Iran's Al Qods
Brigades and its legendary commander Qassam Soleimani, to recapture
Tikrit from the Islamic State (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh) had reached a
standstill even though it was supposed to be have been quick and easy,
requiring only a few days.

Both Iraq and Iran had wanted to win this battle without any help from
the US-led coalition, in order to gain a public relations victory. So
when Iraqi army General Abdulwahab al-Saadi last week called for
American help with airstrikes and intelligence, Hadi Al-Amiri, the
head of the Badr Brigade of Iraq's Shia militias, slammed the request,
calling al-Saadi a "weakling."

Well, apparently the humiliation for Iran and Iraq has been too much
to bear, and they've requested American coalition air strikes. In
addition, the US military will be providing intelligence and
surveillance support for the Iraqis and the Iranians.

This is a major policy shift for Iran, but it's also a major policy
shift for the US administration. The administration did not want to
be seen cooperating with Iran for a couple of reasons. First, it did
not want to be seen cooperating with Iran militarily, since many
American politicians consider Iran to be an enemy. And second, they
didn't want to further inflame the Sunni Arab states, who would be
upset at seeing the U.S. and Iran conducting joint military
operations.

Long-time readers are aware that ten years ago I wrote, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would become America's ally
as the generation of survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution
died off, and that the Sunni nations would be allied with Pakistan and
China against America, India, Russia and Iran. Ten years ago, the
prediction that Iran would be our ally seemed insane, so it's been
fascinating and astonishing, in the last two years, to see that
prediction come closer to reality every week. The Generational
Dynamics methodology, which applies MIT's System Dynamics to flows of
people through generations, has produced one correct analysis and
prediction after another, with no failures. There is no web site,
analyst, politician or journalist in the world with a better
predictive success than the Generational Dynamics web site, as can be
seen with the stunning outcome of the Iran predictions, made ten years
ago. CNN

****
**** Saudi Arabia begins airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen
****

On Wednesday, Iran-backed Shia Houthi militias in Yemen who last year
had taken control of the capital city Sanaa, continued to move south,
took control of the airport in Aden, and were advancing to the
interior of the city. Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who last month fled
from Sanaa to Aden and set up a competing government, is not getting
enough support from the Sunni tribes in the south to defend against
the Houthi invasion.

Some reports indicate that Hadi fled Yemen by boat on Wednesday, and
so is no longer in Yemen. However, his spokesman denies this report,
and indicates that he's in hiding somewhere in Aden.

Saudi Arabia has been massing forces on its southern border with
Yemen, and on Wednesday evening Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz
ordered a sweeping military operation against the Iran-backed Houthis.
A Saudi official announced that a 10-country coalition was conducting
air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. According to Adel al-Jubeir,
the Saudi ambassador to the US, the airstrikes target move than one
city and more than one region. "We are determined to protect the
legitimate government of Yemen. Having Yemen fail cannot be option
for us or for our coalition partners."

A senior Arab diplomat said that that all members of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) except Oman will support military
intervention in Yemen. However, the GCC consists of only six
countries, and so some non-GCC countries will be involved.

Late on Wednesday evening, the White House announced that it will
support the military operation in Yemen with air support, satellite
imagery, and other intelligence.

It now appears that a Yemen civil war is well underway. In Iraq, the
US will fighting alongside Iran, but it appears that in Yemen, US
support will be opposed to Iran. Al Arabiya and CNN

****
**** Obama administration continues to hail Yemen as a model
****

A bizarre side story to the disintegration of Yemen is that the Obama
administration continued on Wednesday to insist that Yemen is a model
of counterterrorism campaign in its fight against ISIS and 29248
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Last year in September, prior to Yemen's meltdown, president Obama
said, "This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while
supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have
successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years."

But in the last few days, the U.S. embassy in Sanaa has been shut
down, and several hundred US special forces were evacuated from Al
Anad air base in southern Yemen, not far from Aden. The special
forces in particular were an essential part of the counterterrorism
strategy, which now appears to have collapsed.

However, according to Obama spokesman Josh Earnest on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"We have not seen that kind of progress in terms of
strengthening the central government, I think you could make a
pretty strong case that we've seen the opposite of that, but we do
continue to enjoy the benefits of a sustained counterterrorism
security relationship with the security infrastructure that
remains. There are elements of the Yemeni government that we
continue to be in touch with that continue to further our efforts
to apply pressures to extremists that seek to operate in that
country."<END QUOTE>

ABC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iraq, Tikrit, Iran,
Al Qods Brigades, Qassam Soleimani, Abdulwahab al-Saadi,
Hadi Al-Amir, Badr Brigade, MIT, System Dynamics,
Yemen, Houthis, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Sanaa,
Aden, Saudi Arabia, Adel al-Jubeir, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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I'm beginning to think that Iran could even ditch its old enmity with Israel. One thing that Iran must recognize about Israel: it isn't murdering Shi'ites.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> I'm beginning to think that Iran could even ditch its old enmity
> with Israel. One thing that Iran must recognize about Israel: it
> isn't murdering Shi'ites.

Indeed, as soon as some of these crazy old geezers die off.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Indeed, as soon as some of these crazy old geezers die off.

Plenty of crazy, and some aren't that old. Both countries need to decide what they'll be when they grow up.

*** 27-Mar-15 World View -- Iran threatens retaliation against Saudi Arabia for Yemen strikes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia, with US help, leads Arab nations to strike Houthis in Yemen
• Iran threatens retaliation against Saudi Arabia for Yemen strikes
• Shia militias sidelined for Iraq's assault on Tikrit, with US help

****
**** Saudi Arabia, with US help, leads Arab nations to strike Houthis in Yemen
****


Iran is threatening to close the Bab el Mandeb and Hormuz straits, isolating Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia deployed 100 fighter jets, 150,000 soldiers and other
navy units on Thursday, launching its "sweeping military operation"
into Yemen.

Several Gulf Arab states -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE),
Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait (but not Oman) issued a joint statement on
Thursday that they decided to repel Houthi militias, Al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) from Yemen. Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan and Sudan also expressed
their support, and readiness to participate.

The United States military is supporting the operation with air
support, satellite imagery, and other intelligence, but is not taking
part in the strikes. Al Arabiya and NBC News

****
**** Iran threatens retaliation against Saudi Arabia for Yemen strikes
****

Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif demanded an immediate end
to the Saudi air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. According
to Zarif:

<QUOTE>We are calling for an immediate end to Saudi Arabia’s
military operations in Yemen. ... We know that these actions
violate the sovereignty of Yemen. This operation will result in
nothing other than bloodshed, and we will provide all our efforts
to defuse the crisis in Yemen. ... This operation will involve the
region in much more tension."<END QUOTE>

Actually Zarif has it backwards when he says that the Saudi airstrikes
violate the sovereignty of Yemen. The airstrikes were requested by
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who is the internationally recognized
president of Yemen, while the Houthis are the terrorists. So the
Saudi intervention is perfectly legal, while any actions that Iran
takes to support the Houthis would be supporting terrorism.

Hadi himself was in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday, and is
traveling to Cairo for an Arab League meeting.

Articles published on state-sponsored Iranian media are inciting the
Houthis to further violence, telling them to counterattack Saudi
Arabia on Saudi soil, and suggest joint operation with Iran to close
two choke points in order to isolate Saudi Arabia. According to one
article:

<QUOTE>"The Attack on the Yemeni Revolution: The Arena Of
Retaliation Stretches From Bab Al-Mandeb To The Strait Of Hormuz:
Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia gathered several countries
... to ensure that the implications of its attack on the popular
revolution in Yemen would be directed at a coalition of Arab
countries, the consequences of this move will undoubtedly be
directed at its own interests. The Saudi-Western front wants to
restrict Ansar Allah to North Yemen and distance the Houthis from
[the Strait of] Bab Al-Mandeb. [Therefore,] it is possible that
they would go as far as splitting Yemen or occupying parts of the
south to realize this goal... Now the Houthis also have the
necessary pretext to launch military operations and retaliatory
strikes deep inside Saudi territory, in Bab Al-Mandeb, the Red
Sea, and even the Strait of Hormuz. The foremost high priority
targets for them are the oil fields, tankers, and
industry."<END QUOTE>

As shown in the map above, if Iran and the Houthis could close the
Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb strait, then Saudi oil would be
trapped in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.

Anticipating this move, the Egyptians on Thursday morning sent its
naval and marine forces to take control of Bab el Mandeb. AEI Iran Tracker and Memri and
Anadolu (Turkey) and Debka (Israel)

****
**** Shia militias sidelined for Iraq's assault on Tikrit, with US help
****

With the US now conduction airstrikes against Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) targets in Tikrit in Iraq, apparently some
20,000 troops from Iran-trained Shia militias will not be
participating in the assault after all, leaving some 4,000 Iraqi
regular army military troops as the only force on the ground.

There are two different sets of reasons being put out to explain why
the Shia militias will no longer participate. According to the
Americans, the US asked Iraq to withdraw the Shia militias so that the
US wouldn't be making airstrikes in support of Shia militias. The
Shias are saying that they pulled out of the Tikrit operation in
protest against the American airstrikes.

Either way, the 20,000 Iran-trained Shia militias are gone, and so is
Iran's legendary Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was supposed to have
defeated ISIS in Tikrit weeks ago, within a few days. Now we'll get
to see whether 4,000 Iraqi army troops, backed up by American
airstrikes, can do what Soleimani and his Shia militias could not.
AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iraq, Tikrit, Egypt, Pakistan,
Al Qods Brigades, Qassam Soleimani, Abdulwahab al-Saadi,
Yemen, Houthis, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Sanaa, Javad Zarif,
Aden, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Jordan, Sudan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 28-Mar-15 World View -- Mideast chaos worsens as countries line up for and against Saudi intervention in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Puerto Rico bankruptcy may be imminent, potentially a 'seminal event'
• Israel releases tax revenue collections to Palestinian Authority
• Mideast nations line up for and against Saudi airstrikes in Yemen
• Mideast countries opposed to Saudi intervention in Yemen

****
**** Puerto Rico bankruptcy may be imminent, potentially a 'seminal event'
****


Puerto Rico landscape

Marilyn Cohen, the CEO of Envision Capital Management, appeared on
Bloomberg TV on Friday to analyze the debt situation in Puerto Rico.
According to Cohen, a $70 billion bankruptcy in Puerto Rico is a
virtual certainty, as early as July.

Many people have invested in Puerto Rico bonds because they
pay 10% interest (yields) and because under federal law they're
"triple-tax free," meaning that you can earn 10% interest every
year and not have to pay federal, state or municipal tax on
the interest you collect. It's a sweet deal, provided that
Puerto Rico doesn't go bankrupt, because if it does, then you
lose most or all of your initial investment.

According to Cohen, the unemployment rate is 13.7%. Only 700,000 of
the 3.5 million people, or 20%, work in the private sector. The other
80% either are on welfare, or they receive unemployment or other aid,
or they work for the government. Year after year, Puerto Rico sells
more and more bonds, and investors eat them up because of the high
tax-free yields. But now their string has run out.

According to Cohen, the bankruptcy will hurt a lot of people. She
compares it to the Detroit bankruptcy, which didn't really hurt too
many people -- the bankrupt debt was $18 billion, but few ordinary
people owned Detroit bonds, as most investors were institutions
that hedged their purchases with credit default swaps.

But Puerto Rico's debt totals $70 billion, and she says that huge
numbers of ordinary investors are going to be hurt. Even if they
don't individually own PR bonds, they own them through their 401k's or
other investment funds, which have been boosting returns by purchasing
the PR bonds. These funds will all lose significant principal in a PR
bankruptcy. According to Cohen, this bankruptcy will be a "seminal
event."

After Detroit and Puerto Rico, Cohen says that the most likely
next municipal bankruptcy will be Chicago, whose finances
are "a mess."

By the way, if you'd like to ignore these warnings about Puerto
Rico and move there, there are numerous tax incentives available
to individuals there not available anywhere else:

• 100% tax exemption on interest and dividend income earned
  after the nonresident individual becomes a resident of Puerto Rico;
  also applies with respect to alternative minimum tax (AMT) up to tax
  year 2036
  
• 100% tax exemption on interest, financial charges, dividends or
  distributive share on partnership income from international banking
  entities in Puerto Rico including AMT
  
• 100% tax exemption on long-term capital gains realized and
  recognized after becoming a resident of Puerto Rico but before January
  1, 2036
  
• If not realized and recognized within the incentive timeframe,
  regular individual long-term capital gain applies (currently at
  10%)
  
• Applies to appreciation of property after becoming a resident of
  Puerto Rico
  
• 5% tax on long-term capital gains realized before becoming a
  resident of Puerto Rico, but recognized after 10 years of becoming a
  resident of Puerto Rico, as long as recognized before January 1,
  2036
  
• This 5% long-term capital gain tax only applies to the portion of
  gain that relates to the appreciation of the property while the
  individual lived outside Puerto Rico
  
• If the long-term capital gain is not recognized within these time
  periods, applicable individual long-term capital gain rate would apply
  on any Puerto Rico-source long-term capital gain

So enjoy the free ride while you can. Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg (16-March) and Premier Offshore Investor

****
**** Israel releases tax revenue collections to Palestinian Authority
****

After Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas applied in
January on behalf of the State of Palestine to join the International Criminal Court (ICC)
, Israel
retaliated by withholding $130 million per month in tax collections
from the PA. This is money that Israel collects administratively on
behalf of the PA in taxes and fees.

Although there were the usual expressions of international outrage
directed at Israel, everyone pretty much assumed that prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu made this decision to please his supporters during
an election campaign, and that the funds would be released at some
time in the future, after the election, and so it really wasn't
considered too big a deal.

Well, the election is over, and "some time in the future" is now.
Israel announced on Friday in a press release that it will release the
money to the PA government in Ramallah.

In December 2012, Israel withheld $100 million in tax revenues from the PA
in retaliation when
Mahmoud Abbas applied to the United Nations General Assembly to create
a state of Palestine with non-member observer status. However, the
tax payments were reinstated shortly afterwards. Jerusalem Post and AP

****
**** Mideast nations line up for and against Saudi airstrikes in Yemen
****

Two days after an 8-nation US-backed coalition, led by Saudi Arabia,
declared war on the Houthi insurgency in Yemen and began airstrikes at
Houthi targets in Yemen, the countries of the Arab League are meeting
in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to decide what to do next.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait are particularly disturbed
by the growing Iranian/Shia hegemony growing stronger in the region,
and so are supporting the Saudis. Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt are
traditional Saudi allies and are participating. So is the Palestinian
Authority of Mahmoud Abbas.

For some countries, participation is a surprise, or at least mildly
unexpected. In Bahrain, Sunnis are in a minority, but they still rule
over the majority Shias. Qatar is considered the Persian Gulf's
"problem child." It has many disagreements with Saudi Arabia, and has
relatively strong channels of communication with Iran.

Sudan is the most intriguing Saudi supported. Sudan has had close
relations with Iran, and Iran has used Sudan as a waypoint in the
transfer of heavy weapons into the Gaza strip. Sudan has recently
accused Iran of "spreading Shia ideology," and it's siding with the
Saudis against Iran is a dramatic statement of intent.

Pakistan is also supporting the Saudis, though less actively.
The Saudis have long had an agreement that Pakistan will supply
Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons technology if Iran gets a
nuclear weapon.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long had, or tried
to have, good relations with Iran, but on Thursday said it
supported the Saudi-led operation. According to Erdogan,

<QUOTE>"Iran is trying to dominate the region. Could this be
allowed? This has begun annoying us, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
countries. This is really not tolerable and Iran has to see
this. ...

Iran has to change its view. It has to withdraw any forces,
whatever it has in Yemen, as well as Syria and Iraq and respect
their territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>

However, Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif denounced
Erdogan’s statement of support for the military strikes in Yemen and
for suggesting that Iran is seeking to control the region. Zarif
blamed Erdogan for fomenting regional insecurity and stated: "It would
be better if those who have created irreparable damages with their
strategic blunders [referring to Turkey’s role in the ongoing Syrian
crisis] ... would adopt responsible policies." Zarif reiterated
Tehran’s support for a political resolution in Yemen. YNet (Israel) and Arab News and
AEI Iran Tracker

****
**** Mideast countries opposed to Saudi intervention in Yemen
****

There are several countries that are opposed to the Saudi-led
intervention.

Iran, of course, is the leading opponent, and is suspected of
supplying weapons and support to the Houthis in Yemen. Iraq, whose
government is a close ally of Iran, is strongly opposing the Saudi
military intervention.

Lebanon's support is split, just as Lebanon itself is split between
Shia and Sunni factions. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Iran back
Shia faction Hezbollah, was particularly vitriolic on Friday. In some
of his harshest comments to date, Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of
sending suicide attackers to Iraq and of creating the Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Addressing Saudi Arabia, he said Iran
had expanded its influence in the region because "you are lazy,
losers, and you don't take responsibility."

Algeria is usually disinclined to get involved in regional crises, and
opposes the military intervention. Oman stayed out of the alliance in
the hope of acting as a mediator. Lately, Oman has played a
significant role in the US-Iranian thaw that allowed nuclear talks to
advance.

As Generational Dynamics has been predicting for years, the Mideast is
headed for a major war between Jews and Arabs, between Sunnis and
Shias, and between various ethnic groups, and this war is coming with
100% certainty as the survivors die off from the genocidal 1948
Mideast war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Think back to how relatively
peaceful the Mideast was just five or six years ago, and you'll
realize how quickly the Mideast is now descending into chaos, as more
and more of those survivors die off. These trends have been
accelerating even in the last few weeks, and it's hard to escape the
feeling that all-out war cannot be very far off. YNet (Israel) and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Puerto Rico, Marilyn Cohen, Detroit, Chicago,
Israel, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
International Criminal Court, ICC,
Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Morocco, Jordan, Egypt, Sharm El-Sheikh, Arab League,
Bahrain, Qatar, Sudan, Gaza Strip, Pakistan,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Javad Zarif, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah, Algeria, Oman

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*** 29-Mar-15 World View -- Syria's al-Assad regime suffers major military setback in Idlib

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's al-Assad regime suffers major military setback in Idlib
• Arab League positions harden against Houthis and Iran

****
**** Syria's al-Assad regime suffers major military setback in Idlib
****


Al-Nusra fighters, one carrying an al-Nusra flag, celebrate in central Idlib (Reuters)

A group of seven jihadist factions, led by the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), appear to have seized the city of Idlib,
dealing a major blow to the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, who recently declared that Idlib would be freed. The Syrian
army forces collapsed rapidly after four days of heavy fighting,
according to the jihadists. They were able to make use of
American-made TOW missiles that the US had previously provided to
friendly anti-Assad rebels. The TOW missiles were used to neutralize
Syrian tanks.

Al-Nusra is an al-Qaeda linked group, and is in fact the "official"
branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. It didn't join the Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) when the latter broke away from al-Qaeda two
years ago. The al-Qaeda linked groups and ISIS are theoretically
allies fighting the al-Assad regime, but they also get into battles
with each other, and there may be a major battle shaping up over who's
going to control more of Syria.

Idlib is a the capital of the northwestern province named Idlib. The
city has 165,000 people and is close to the main highway linking
Damascus to Aleppo and to the coastal province of Latakia, a
stronghold of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad. The jihadists were
jubilant after victory, posting videos of themselves taking down
al-Assad posters, and yelling "Alluha Akbar!"

This is the second time in a week that al-Assad has been humiliated by
an al-Nusra victory. Last week, al-Nusra captured the ancient and
strategic town of Busra Sham in southern Syria.

Idlib is the second major provincial capital that the al-Assad regime
has lost to jihadists. Al-Nusra captured another provincial capital,
Raqqa, but it was subsequently seized from al-Nusra by ISIS, and has
now become the headquarters of ISIS.

With the world focused on ISIS, al-Nusra has quietly consolidated its
power in Syria. Al-Nusra now controls a large stretch of land from
the border with Turkey to southern Syria. Control of Idlib means that
jihadists can freely move back and forth between Turkey and Syria.
Some analysts believe that Turkey is funding some al-Qaeda linked
groups because its major objective is the defeat of al-Assad.
The National (UAE) and Belfast Telegraph and Long War Journal

****
**** Arab League positions harden against Houthis and Iran
****

"Operation Decisive Storm," which is the name of the 8-country
military operation to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, led by Saudi
Arabia, entered its fourth day on Saturday night.

Leaders of the Arab League nations used extremely belligerent language
in referring to the Houthis and Iran, with the King of Saudi Arabia
calling the Houthis the biggest threat to the stability and security
of the region, presumably implying that they're more dangerous than
the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The leaders backed up the belligerent language with commitments to
continue the assault on the Houthis in Yemen. This indicates that
positions are becoming extremely hardened.

Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, the president of Yemen who has been forced to
flee the country, called the Houthis "stooges of Iran," and said:

<QUOTE>"I call for the continuation of Operation Decisive
Storm until this gang [the Houthis] announces its surrender, exits
all occupied territories in the provinces, leaves state
institutions and military camps.

Operation Decisive Storm will continue until all the goals are
achieved and the Yemeni people start enjoying security and
stability."<END QUOTE>

Obviously, there's a lot of wishful thinking her, since the
Iran-backed Houthis are not going to surrender without a great deal
more bloodshed.

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi said:

<QUOTE>"This nation [Yemen], in its darkest hour, had never
been faced a challenge to its existence and a threat to its
identity like the one it's facing now. This threatens our
national security and [we] cannot ignore its consequences for the
Arab identity."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, who is leading the
assault on the Houthis, said:

<QUOTE>"Saudi Arabia did not spare any effort to address the
situation in Yemen. Houthi intransigence, pursuit of power and
control, rejection of all initiatives and their aggression against
the Yemeni people led to the military operation. The Houthi
militants elicited support of foreign powers to threaten the
region’s security.

We hoped not to resort to this decision (the operation) ... The
Houthi’ aggression is the biggest threat to the stability and
security of the region."<END QUOTE>

The Saudi kingdom has taken the lead with some 100 warplanes. Other
coalition partners are providing additional warplanes, the coalition
partners include the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar,
Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and Egypt. There are reports that Saudi ground
troops may enter Yemen within a few days.

Egypt's al-Sisi is calling for a unified Arab force to deal with the
increasing list of crises, including Libya and Syria. The proposed
force would be made of up to 40,000 elite troops and will be
headquartered in either Cairo or Riyadh, the Egyptian and Saudi
capitals. The force would be backed by jet-fighters, warships and
light armor.

Some analysts are expressing doubt that this Arab military coalition
will last very long, dissolving with a few days or weeks. That's
certainly a possibility, but from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, another view must be emphasized: If this were the 1990s, (a
generational "Unraveling" era), then the coalition probably would
dissolve quickly. But in today's generational Crisis era, the public
mood is very different than it was in the 1990s. Today, with the
survivors of World War II gone, the public mood is increasingly
nationalistic, xenophobic, and belligerent. So it's quite possible
(though not certain) that this coalition will become even more
bellicose, and that the war in Yemen will spread to other sites.
Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a full-scale war in
the Mideast, pitting Arabs versus Jews, Sunnis versus Shias, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Al Jazeera and CNN and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Busra Sham, Raqqa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Arab League, Yemen, Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi,
Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud

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*** 30-Mar-15 World View -- Arab League meeting ends with promise for joint Arab military force

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Top Iranian journalist defects, criticizes US nuclear negotiators
• Arab League meeting ends with promise for joint Arab military force
• Report: Iran nuclear negotiations may be deadlocked

****
**** Top Iranian journalist defects, criticizes US nuclear negotiators
****


Iran's negotiating team in Lausanne (AFP)

Amir Hossein Motaghi, a top Iranian journalist and close aide to
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani, defected to the West on Friday, while
reporting on the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West.
Appearing in a televised interview, he said:

<QUOTE>"There are a number of people attending on the Iranian
side at the negotiations who are said to be journalists reporting
on the negotiations. But they are not journalists and their main
job is to make sure that all the news fed back to Iran goes
through their channels. My conscience would not allow me to carry
out my profession in this manner any more."<END QUOTE>

Anyone in Iran who criticizes the regime in any way may be subject to
imprisonment, torture or death. This was particularly evident
following the 2009 presidential election, when there was blood in
streets as peaceful student protesters were slaughtered by regime
security forces.

Journalism in Iran is a particularly dangerous profession, since
angering some regime politician can lead to imprisonment. One of the
factors in Motaghi's decision to defect was the arrest of his friend
Jason Rezaian, the Iranian-American reporter for the Washington Post,
who was brutally arrested on July 22 of last year, along with his
wife. He's still in prison, and there have been no charges.

Motaghi says there's no point to being an Iranian journalist, since
all you do is parrot with the regime tells you to say. He's also
critical of Secretary of State John Kerry and the U.S. nuclear
negotiating team: "The US negotiating team are mainly there to speak
on Iran’s behalf with other members of the 5+1 countries and convince
them of a deal." Telegraph (London)

****
**** Arab League meeting ends with promise for joint Arab military force
****

Most annual Arab League summit meetings have as their top agenda item
the problem of Israel and the Palestinian cause. But this year, the
26th Arab League summit was held in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, and the
war with the Houthis in Yemen was pretty much the only major agenda
item. Other important agenda items, including the Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the unrest in Iraq, Libya and Syria and the
Palestinian cause, were discussed only briefly.

The major decisions to come out of the Arab League meeting were:

• A general endorsement of the Saudi Arabia-led military action
  against the Houthis in Yemen.
  
• A non-binding of the proposal by Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah
  al-Sisi for all Arab countries to form a joint Arab military force to
  "fight terrorism." Al-Sisi has been pushing this idea for several
  weeks, ever since the massacre of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in
  Libya last month by terrorists who had pledged loyalty to
  ISIS.

The final draft resolution called on Arab countries to support
Palestine's budget, and to pressure Israel to respect signed
agreements and international resolutions.

The anger directed at Iran is palpable. The Houthi insurrection has
done something that the Syria war, ISIS, and terrorism in Libya did
not do: It unified the Arab nations, at least for the time being.
Yemen is not seen as a local problem, but as Iran's grip on another
nation, after Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, while at the same time making
use of a "desperate" president Barack Obama.

This Saudi editorial seems to capture what a lot of Arabs are feeling
today:

<QUOTE>"If anything, the so-called Arab Spring had provided
Iran with an unprecedented opportunity to boost its strategic
presence in the Arab world. Indeed, Tehran has exploited every
crisis in the Arab world to its advantage and to gain a foothold
in the region. I will state the obvious and argue that Iran is a
revisionist state.

Many Saudis as well as other Arabs believe that Iran’s bullying
knows no bounds. Hence, many Arabs are looking up to Saudi Arabia
to effectively confront Iran’s expansionist designs in the
region. While Riyadh had been working along with other like-minded
states in a peaceful way to prevent unnecessary escalation, the
Iranian leaders erroneously thought that they could destabilize
Yemen, change the balance of power in the Gulf region, and get
away with it. In such a situation, it was necessary to formulate a
new strategy conveying a strong message to Iran and its ilk that
Saudi Arabia could always resort to using military means if and
when necessary to prevent an imbalance in the regional balance of
power.

The same strategy could be seen currently at work in Yemen. The
failure of diplomacy to encourage the Iranian-backed Houthis to
negotiate with good faith compelled Riyadh to adopt this approach.

In a short period of time, Riyadh put forward a formidable
coalition with one objective: To reverse the gains of the Houthis
and to hit them hard so that they understand that their actions
will not be tolerated and that they have to negotiate a political
settlement.

The running argument within and without Saudi Arabia is that short
of taking strong and decisive action against Iran’s proxy, Iran
will not change course.

To have a better understanding of this strategy, one has to
examine the wider context. Observers in the region agree that
United States President Barack Obama is desperate to leave his
legacy in the Middle East. Time and again, Obama made it perfectly
clear that a deal with Iran topped his priority list. The problem,
and herein the crux of the matter, is that such a deal is most
likely to give Iran an elated status. It is as if you get the
genie out of the bottle. A deal with Iran is likely to strengthen
a revisionist Iran, a scenario that will be too
risky. Furthermore, the prevailing perception in this part of the
world is that the American appeasement of Iran will only hurt the
interests of the Arab world in the long run."<END QUOTE>

This is only a few steps away from a call for war with Iran. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Arab News and AP

****
**** Report: Iran nuclear negotiations may be deadlocked
****

The self-imposed deadline for completion of nuclear negotiations is
Tuesday, and it's believed by many that the Obama administration is
desperate for a deal, possibly so that Obama and Kerry can share a
Nobel Peace Prize.

A report late Sunday indicates that Iran is backing away from a
previous agreement to ship their stockpile of atomic fuel to another
country, presumably to Russia. This would make the stockpile
inaccessible for making a nuclear weapon.

Another major area of disagreement is the removal of sanctions.
Iran's Supreme Leader has vetoed any nuclear agreement that doesn't
give Iran immediate relief from Western sanctions, as we reported two weeks ago.
There is a
disagreement among politicians in Washington whether Obama has the
power to reduce or remove sanctions unilaterally, without a vote from
Congress.

It's typical in a hard negotiating situation for compromises to be
reached at the last moment. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Amir Hossein Motaghi, Hassan Rouhani,
John Kerry, Jason Rezaian, Arab League, Egypt, Yemen, Houthis,
Saudi Arabia, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Libya

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Part of the reason why Puerto Rico is in such deep trouble is China. Years ago, we would set up plants in Puerto Rico in order to realize relatively lower cost while still being on US soil. It was even competitive with places like Mexico, Jamaica, the DR, Guatemala, etc.

But when the China price arrived, most people who had plants in Puerto Rico followed the herd and moved to China (or outsourced to contract manufacturers with operations in China). This was especially true in the telecom equipment arena and to a lesser extent the computer industry.

*** 31-Mar-15 World View -- President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Desperate John Kerry looks for a nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday
• President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'

****
**** Desperate John Kerry looks for a nuclear deal with Iran on Tuesday
****


Western negotiating team in Lausanne

As an American, it's embarrassing to see Secretary of State so
desperate to get a nuclear deal with Iran that he's willing to concede
anything. The deadline is today (Tuesday) at midnight Switzerland
time. It's thought that Kerry doesn't want the negotiations to past
midnight, because then it would be called an "April Fool's Nuclear
Deal."

Many people believe that Kerry's lack of restraint is his desire to
win a Nobel Peace Prize. That may in fact be his motive, but to be
fair, there's another reason: It there's no agreement with Iran, then
the status quo remains: the sanctions continue while Iran
continues to develop a nuclear weapons. What's not clear to me is why
this is better than having a deal where the sanctions come off, and
Iran continues to develop a nuclear weapon anyway.

According to an analysis by Memri, Iran has not backed down in anyway
from its positions at the start of the talks. As I reported
yesterday, Iran has reversed a previous agreement to ship their
stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia. Now they intend to keep it,
so that it can be refined and developed into a nuclear weapon.

Memri lists the following Iranian positions that remain unchanged:

• Tehran rejects the removal of its enriched uranium from
  Iran.
• Tehran rejects a gradual lifting of the sanctions.
• Tehran rejects restriction of the number of its centrifuges.
• Tehran rejects intrusive inspections and snap inspections.
• Tehran rejects any halt to its research and development activity.
• Tehran rejects any change to the nature of its heavy water reactor at Arak.
• Tehran rejects any closure of its secret enrichment site at Fordow.
• Tehran rejects all restrictions to its nuclear activity following the agreement's expiration.
• Tehran rejects the inclusion of its long-range missile program in the negotiations.
• Tehran rejects reporting on its previous clandestine military nuclear activity.
• Tehran rejects allowing inspections of military sites suspected of conducting nuclear activity.

So it looks like Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon either way.

This is a good time to remind readers that we've been predicting for
years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran was going
to get a nuclear weapon, because Iran's public is demanding it for
defense. They've already been a victim of Saddam Hussein's WMDs, and
the public believes that with Pakistan, Russia and Israel having
nuclear weapons, they must have one too.

Still, with President Obama's and John Kerry's foreign policy record
of an unbroken string of catastrophes, it cannot do the United States
any good to see a servile John Kerry begging for a deal, just to see
him later beg for a reward from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Iran's Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is demanding that all Western
sanctions be removed completely immediately, or there will be no deal.
In February, Khamenei made a statement affirming this, but
also accused the West of duplicity:

<QUOTE>"A scenario of agreement on general principles, and
shortly thereafter agreement on the details, is not recommended,
because our experience with the opposite side's conduct [in the
negotiations shows] that a framework agreement will serve [them]
as a tool for inventing a series of excuses in [the negotiations
on] the details. If an agreement is to be reached, it must be a
single-stage agreement, and it must include the general framework
as well as the details. The agreement's content must be clear, and
not open to interpretation. The agreement's sections must not be
such that the opposing side, which is used to bargaining, will
search for excuses on the various issues. The sanctions must be
completely removed."<END QUOTE>

This paragraph may be alluding to a 2013 interim agreement between
Iran and the west. The full text of that agreement was never
published. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that under the
agreement Iran had no right to enrich uranium, while Iran's foreign
minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated that Iran had preserved its
right to enrich uranium. The White House published a "summary," but
Iran completely rejected
the White
House summary as "not true." Then, in January 2014, Iran disclosed
that there was a secret side agreement to the nuclear agreement. The
White House first confirmed this, saying that the side agreement would
be made public, and then denied that there was a secret side agreement

So Khamenei is demanding that any new agreement be published in full,
that there be no side agreements, that there be no ambiguities, and
that sanctions be removed completely, immediately.

So here are two questions: Is Khamenei so resolute that he won't
compromise on any principle? Is Kerry so servile that he'll
compromise on every principle? Perhaps we'll have an answer by April
Fool's Day. Memri and
VOA and AEI Iran Tracker

****
**** President Obama to update George Bush's 'Roadmap to Mideast Peace'
****

The Washington Post is saying that President Obama plans to create a
new Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal, and to impose it on Israel and
the Palestinians by mandating it through the UN Security Council. The
"new" proposal would be an update of UN Resolution 242, whose latest
incarnation of President George Bush's May 2003 "Roadmap to Mideast
Peace," which the Obama administration has been trying and failing to
impose on Israel and the Palestinians through negotiations.

Obama has already laid the groundwork by means of his vitriolic
criticisms of Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although
the details of the "new" proposal are not publicly known, it's
expected that it will try to impose a Palestinian state based on the
pre-1967 borders with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Most likely
it would declare that Jerusalem would be the capital of both nations.

The plan would be silent on the means for protecting Israel from
terrorist attacks from the West Bank and Gaza. The plan would also be
silent on the question of Palestinian refugees and the "right to
return," except to say that those details would be agreed on later.
In other words, the "peace plan" would meet the Palestinians' demands,
but would not even address Israel's concerns.

As in the case of the Iran nuclear negotiations, all I can do is shake
my head at how laughably ridiculous this is. When George Bush
proposed something similar, I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?"
that it would never work, because Generational Dynamics predicts
that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed
the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel.

So President Obama, the smartest guy in every room, is about to launch
into his next foreign policy catastrophe by regurgitating George
Bush's old Roadmap to Mideast Peace plan with a new title and a shiny
new cover. But this time it will not be a "proposal," but a
"mandate," which will make no difference whatsoever, except that it
will probably infuriate everyone, and may even start another war.
Washington Post

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, John Kerry, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Israel, Palestine, George Bush,
Benjamin Netanyahu, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Roadmap to Mideast Peace

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*** 1-Apr-15 World View -- As Yemen war intensifies, Pakistan seems close to sending troops

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen crisis continues growth into major war and humanitarian crisis
• Pakistan debates Saudi Arabia's call for help

****
**** Yemen crisis continues growth into major war and humanitarian crisis
****


Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif shakes hands with Saudi King Salman (The Nation)

The Mideast seems to be settling in for another major war, another
major humanitarian crisis, another opportunity for gushing statements
by politicians.

Saudi Arabian airstrikes hit the Al-Mazraq refugee camp near Sanaa,
killing at least 30 people, including women and children. About 1100
families live in the camp, having fled from the fighting in the last
few months.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights is criticizing the Saudis for
the air strikes, and the fighting in general, saying that "Increasing
hostilities have led to (the) targeting of schools, health facilities
and other social infrastructure. ... There are reports of damage to
residential areas in different cities, and in Aden, minors have
reportedly taken part in the fighting on all sides."

The Saudis have deployed thousands of soldiers to the border with
Yemen. Iran-backed Houthi fighters have been clashing with Saudi
soldiers on the border between the two countries. There was heavy
gunfire as Saudi helicopters flew overhead.

In southeastern Yemen, Houthis are massively attacking Aden, and have
approached the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait that controls access to
the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Egypt's naval ships are shelling
Houthi positions to protect the strait.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein said:

<QUOTE>"The situation in Yemen is extremely alarming, with
dozens of civilians killed over the past four days. The country
seems to be on the verge of total collapse."<END QUOTE>

AFP and Reuters and CNN

****
**** Pakistan debates Saudi Arabia's call for help
****

It's increasingly clear that the war in Yemen is turning into a major
war. There's supposed to be a ten-country coalition fighting against
the Houthis in Yemen, but only three countries have seriously
committed forces to fighting the Houthis: Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates and Egypt. The U.S. supports the efforts with
intelligence.

Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud has asked Pakistan's prime
minister, Nawaz Sharif, to provide troops from Pakistan's army to aid
the Yemen war against the Houthis. Pakistan is officially a sectarian
state, but it's 80% Sunni Muslim, and has a history of supporting the
Sunnis in the Mideast. Pakistani troops fought in the 1967 Six-Day
War between the Arab states and Israel, and the army also came to
Saudi Arabia’s aid in 1969 when South Yemen invaded part of the
kingdom.

Nawaz Sharif also owes a personal debt of gratitude to the Saudis.
When Sharif was prime minister in the late 1990s, he was overthrown in
a coup by army general Pervez Musharaff and imprisoned. The Saudis
interceded for him, and he went to Saudi Arabia and remained as a
guest for several years. Pakistan has also benefitted from its
friendship with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan is a poor country, while Saudi
Arabia is a wealthy country, and the Saudis have given a great deal of
financial and military aid to Pakistan.

So now the Saudis are demanding help in return. According to reports,
the Pakistani public is opposed to intervening in Yemen. Pakistan has
a long border with Iran, and has tried to maintain cordial relations
with Iran, which would not be helped by fighting a proxy war against
Iran in Yemen. Internally, Pakistan has suffered thousands of deaths
from sectarian terrorist attacks by the Taliban against Shias, and
getting involved in a sectarian war in Yemen could exacerbate the
sectarian conflict in Pakistan.

Analysts seem to believe that Pakistan has no choice but to yield to
King Salman's request. Some reports indicate that several battalions
of Pakistani troops are already preparing to travel to Saudi Arabia,
or have already arrived.

This is a good time to review Generational Dynamics predictions that
I've been posting for ten years:

• The Mideast is headed for a war pitting Jews against Arabs,
  Sunnis against Shias, and different ethnic groups against each other.
  In the past year, the amount of bloodshed in the Mideast seems to have
  been increasing almost exponentially, and the growing Yemen war
  continues that trend.
  
• Iran will become our ally, will develop a nuclear weapon, but will
  not have any desire to use it against Israel.
  
• The world is headed for a new "Clash of Civilizations" world war
  that will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab states against the
  US, India, Russia and Iran.

These predictions seemed unlikely or even fantastical ten years ago,
even to me, but today, they're all coming true. These predictions did
not come from a crystal ball. They came from an analysis of history
using a specific methodology.

Once again, the Generational Dynamics methodology is based on MIT's
Systems Dynamics applied to population flows through generations.
There is no analyst, politician, web site or journalist with anything
close to the predictive success of the Generational Dynamics web site.
When I set up my web site in 2003, it was with the specific purpose of
providing a place where I could post Generational Dynamics analyses
and predictions, so that anyone at any time could look back and see if
they turned out to be right or wrong. Now, after 12 years, I can say
with confidence that Generational Dynamics has probably turned out to
be the most successful predictive and analytical methodology in
history, and anyone can look back on the thousands of articles,
predictions and analyses that I've posted and judge for themselves.
Guardian (London) and The Nation (Pakistan) and Debka (Israel)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Al-Mazraq,
Aden, Bab el-Mandeb strait, Egypt, Red Sea, Suez Canal,
Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Israel, Iran

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*** 2-Apr-15 World View -- ISIS captures Yarmouk refugee camp, closes in on collapsing al-Assad

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS captures Yarmouk refugee camp, closes in on Damascus
• Hezbollah trapped by a sense of collapse in al-Assad's army
• Turkmenistan fears jihadist invasion from Afghanistan
• Palestinian Authority joins International Criminal Court

****
**** ISIS captures Yarmouk refugee camp, closes in on Damascus
****


Yarmouk refugee camp, 31-Jan-2014, showing residents queuing up to receive food supplies (AP)

The Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) captured the Yarmouk
refugee camp in Syria on Wednesday, inflicting another defeat on the
army of Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime. This comes just the al-Assad
regime suffered a major military setback in Idlib, as I reported a few days ago.
According to
some reports, the ISIS received some help from the rival jihadist
gang, the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front).

Prior to the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, the Yarmouk refugee
camp was home to half a million Palestinian refugees. However, many
Palestinians have fled the camp, mainly driven out by a siege from the
the army of al-Assad, who accused the Palestinians of joining the
militias opposing him. The current population is estimated to be
around 18,000.

The capture of Yarmouk gives ISIS a strong foothold on southern
Damascus, which is al-Assad's seat of power. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Reuters and AP

****
**** Hezbollah trapped by a sense of collapse in al-Assad's army
****

The Shia Iran-backed Lebanon-based Hezbollah terrorist group in
Lebanon is increasingly in a quagmire because of the changing Mideast
dynamics.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah condemned the Saudi-led
intervention in Yemen against the Houthis, and expressed displeasure
at political elements within Lebanon's own government that supported
the intervention. But there's little that Hezbollah can do, since
it's stretched to the limits in Syria, where it's supposed to be
supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, but the
latter is facing a growing perception of collapse following the last
week's fall of Idlib, and Wednesday's loss of Yarmouk.
With the military effectiveness of al-Assad's army possibly near
an end, Hezbollah has to select its battles very carefully.

Hezbollah appears to be facing the bitter reality that it's a Shia
militia living in a mostly Sunni Mideast, including the country of
Lebanon where it shares power with Sunni politicians. In the past,
the mantra was that everyone had to get along with everyone, and so
Hezbollah could flourish by repeatedly talking about the "resistance,"
referring to the conflict with Israel. But the war in Syria, and now
the war in Yemen, have caused the Sunni-Shia fault line to sharpen
considerably, and there's a lot less patience among Sunni governments
to put up with an Iran-backed Shia militia (Hezbollah), which they see
as an ally of Iran and a threat to their own stability. Daily Star (Lebanon)

****
**** Turkmenistan fears jihadist invasion from Afghanistan
****

There have been fears throughout Central Asia that the withdrawal of
American troops from Afghanistan will create a vacuum that will be
filled by jihadists.

This has been especially true in Turkmenistan, which shares a 744 km
border with Afghanistan, and is particularly vulnerable to jihadists
attacking from Afghanistan. In fact, Turkmenistan's government seems
genuinely frightened by the prospect of an invasion, so much so that
it's violating its own rules of neutrality and asking Russia to
provide troops for protection. And this comes as Turkmenistan has
already asked Uzbekistan to provide border guards to protect
Turkmenistan's border.

Moscow has been strengthening its military presence in Tajikistan, so
doing so in Turkmenistan is consistent with Russia's policies, even if
it's inconsistent with Turkmenistan's policies. Turkmenistan, like
the rest of the world, has been watching Russia's actions in Ukraine
and Crimea, and learned that once Russian forces gain a foothold in a
country, it's impossible to get them to leave. So Turkmenistan's
government must be really scared to make that request of Russia.

What concerns everyone most is the threatened rise of terrorist groups
linked to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Central
Asia. ISIS has been recruiting in north Afghanistan, and an ISIS
invasion into Turkmenistan could create a large refugee problem that
would be destabilizing in Central Asia, and would increase xenophobic
ethnic violence in Russia itself. Jamestown/Paul Goble

****
**** Palestinian Authority joins International Criminal Court
****

The Palestinian Authority (PA) became a full member of the
International Criminal Court (ICC) on Wednesday, with the stated
intention of bring war crimes charges against Israel for actions taken
during last summer's Gaza war. The PA joined last year
with observer status, and is now a full member.

The Palestinians will have to overcome a number of legal hurdles.
First, they must convince the ICC that they have jurisdiction.
Second, they would have to prove that Israel's targets during the Gaza
war were not legitimate military targets, and that the intention was
to cause indiscriminate or disproportionate harm to civilians. This
would be difficult to prove, since armed Palestinian militias were
launching rockets from within the civilian population.

On the other hand, Israel could make a much more straightforward case
that Hamas's firing of rockets and missiles at Israeli communities had
the intention of causing indiscriminate or disproportionate harm to
civilians, especially since Palestinian military leaders have stated
on numerous occasions that they consider Israeli civilians to be
legitimate military targets. Arab News and
Media Line


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Damascus, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Yarmouk refugee camp,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Iran, Idlib,
Palestinian Authority, PA, International Criminal Court, ICC, Israel,
Turkmenistan, Russia, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan

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*** 3-Apr-15 World View -- Al-Shabaab kills 147 mostly Christan students in Kenya school

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Shabaab kills 147 mostly Christian students in Kenya school
• Bill O'Reilly's 'Killing Jesus' and 1960s-style activism

****
**** Al-Shabaab kills 147 mostly Christian students in Kenya school
****


Kenyan security forces at Garissa University College on Thursday (AFP)

The Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab, which has been out of the news
lately because Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has been
grabbing all the headlines, has finally grabbed its own headlines on
Thursday by killing over 147 people, mostly Christian students, at
Garissa University College in Kenya. The students were massacred in
their dormitories. Christians were singled out and shot dead. 79
were injured, and 587 were led to safety. Al-Shabaab has retained its
loyalty to al-Qaeda, and has not pledged itself to ISIS, as other
terror groups have.

Al-Shabaab has targeted Christians in the past. In December,
al-Shabaab terrorists killed 36 mainly Christian miners
working in a quarry in northern Kenya, near the border with Somalia.
The 60 or so workers were asked to recite the Shahada, an Islamic
creed declaring oneness with God. Those who couldn't were shot and
killed.

This follows a similar incident that occurred on November 22, when
Al-Shabaab terrorists forced a bus carrying 60 passengers to stop.
They asked the passengers to recite Koranic verses, and those who were
unable to do so were lined up and then killed. 28 people were killed,
19 men and 9 women.

The new attack was reminiscent of a 2013 al-Shabaab attack in 2013 at
the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi. That attack lasted for three
days, and involved al-Shabaab recruits from a Somali community in
Minneapolis, Minnesota. That attack brought Kenya's president Uhuru
Kenyatta under a great deal of criticism for doing nothing to stop
terrorism.

So on Thursday, Kenyatta announced that he would defy a court order
that prevented the recruitment to Kenya's police service. In October
2014, the High Court blocked further police recruitment because of
corruption in the selection process. Kenyatta will defy the court
order, and is ordering 10,000 new recruits to report to the Kiganjo
police training college. Daily Mail (London) and Capital FM (Kenya)

****
**** Bill O'Reilly's 'Killing Jesus' and 1960s-style activism
****

On Sunday, I saw Bill O'Reilly's "Killing Jesus," which presents the
"historical Jesus," the life of Jesus as confirmed by contemporary
historical sources.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, one thing that comes
through strongly in watching this movie is how much Jesus was a
1960s-style activist. Almost every word about love and peace, and
every action such as demonstrating against the older generation of
Jews, sounded and looked like people from the 1960s. I was also
reminded of the 1960s Broadway musical "Jesus Christ Superstar," which
also portrays Jesus as a 1960s-style activist.

This is a compliment to Jesus, not a criticism. Jesus accomplished
his goals through peaceful activism, as contrasted to Mohammed, who
led an army.

One more point: Jesus's ministry occurred during a generational
Awakening era, like America in the 1960s. Mohammed's time occurred
during a generational crisis war between Mecca and Medina, like World
War II. This difference is reflected in the two holy books. For
example, many men are killed during a war, leaving behind many
unattached women whose presence can destabilize a society. This fact
alone explains why the Koran permits polygamy, while the Bible does
not.

The New Testament might be thought of as describing how to live during
a generational Awakening era. The Koran might be thought of as
describing how to live during a generational Crisis war. This is a
generational analysis that, from a secular point of view, explains the
difference in tone between the two books.

The movie "Killing Jesus" will be repeated on the Fox News Network at
8pm and 11pm this evening (Friday) and again on Sunday. This is
appropriate, as this weekend is Easter for Western Christians. As far
as I know, the movie will not be repeated next weekend, for Orthodox
Christian Easter. Fox News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Somalia, al-Shabaab,
Garissa University College, Uhuru Kenyatta,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bill O'Reilly, Killing Jesus, Mohammed, Bible, Koran, polygamy

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*** 4-Apr-15 World View -- China to sell eight advanced submarines to Pakistan, encircling India

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China to sell eight advanced submarines to Pakistan, encircling India
• As Russia-Saudi relations deteriorate, Egypt tries a middle road
• Greece turns to Russia and China, amid reports of imminent default

****
**** China to sell eight advanced submarines to Pakistan, encircling India
****


Submarine image from Pakistan Defense

The naval arms race between India and Pakistan took a big leap forward
this week, as Pakistan signed a deal to acquire eight advanced
conventional (non-nuclear) diesel-powered submarines from China.
Pakistan's Ministry of Defense said that the eight submarines were
being purchased from China to address the force imbalance with India,
as India has been expanding its own fleet.

China and Pakistan are "all-weather" friends, and this is a
particularly large military sale. Also, as a sign of Pakistan's close
relationship with China, this is the first time China has exported its
submarines to anyone.

India has been expanding its fleet not just because of Pakistan, but
because of China. China has been rapidly expanding its fleet ( "28-Feb-15 World View -- US Navy says that China now has more attack submarines than US"
), and India
claims that China has been "encircling" India with naval bases.

The Indians particularly point to the Gwadar Port on the Indian Ocean
in Pakistan, which China has been developing. The port serves the
dual purpose. On the one hand, it's a military naval base. But it's
also a way for China to avoid maritime choke points in the Indian and
Pacific oceans by moving Persian Gulf oil and gas over land from
Gwadar to China.

China claims to have three principles in selling arms to other counts:

• The arms must be for self-defense.
• The weapons must not impair the peace, security and stability of
  the region.
• The weapons sales must not interfere with the recipient nation's
  internal affairs.

However, Western nations have accused China of repeatedly impairing
the stability of the region, such as through the sales of advanced
cruise missiles to Pakistan that began in the 1990s. Those
accusations will certainly be renewed with China's sale of this
submarine fleet to Pakistan.

A few days ago, I reported on Pakistan's close relationship with Saudi Arabia.
As I've been
saying for about ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
world is headed for a new "Clash of Civilizations" world war that will
pit the West, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries. Dawn (Pakistan) and Marine Link and Lowy Institute (Australia)

****
**** As Russia-Saudi relations deteriorate, Egypt tries a middle road
****

Relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia have never been particularly
friendly, especially since 1938, when Stalin closed the Soviet embassy
in Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic relations were not restored until after
the collapse of the Soviet Union, but they haven't been close.

In recent years, the Russians have infuriated the Saudis by providing
billions of dollars of weapons to the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad.

The Saudis have infuriate the Russians by refusing to cut production
as the price of oil collapsed, thereby harming Russia's economy.

Russia has accused the Saudis of supplying weapons to the militias
fighting against al-Assad in Syria. The Saudis have accused Russia of
invading Crimea in order to kill the Crimean Muslim (Tatar)
population.

Egypt is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, and the two countries are
partners in the joint Arab military intervention in Yemen, against
Iran-backed Houthis.

Egypt depends on Saudi Arabia for financial aid, but would also like a
close relationship with Russia. Egypt has had a much longer
relationship with Russia, with Russian czars supporting Orthodox
Christians in Egypt as far back as the 16th century, and the Soviet
Union was a key backer of Egypt in the decades after World War II.

Egypt is in a unique situation: Egypt would like to purchase weapons
from Russia, funded by $2 billion of Saudi money. However, Russia has
not been quick to sign such a deal, and the Saudi media is reminding
Egyptians that 2,500 Egyptian soldiers died defending Crimea from the
Russians back in the mid-19th century.

So although Egypt would like to have closer relations with Russia, it
appears that they will be overshadowed by Egypt's very close relations
with Saudi Arabia. Al-Monitor and Washington Post

****
**** Greece turns to Russia and China, amid reports of imminent default
****

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Greece plans to miss its next
scheduled bailout loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), and will go into default next week on Wednesday (8-Apr). This
would be the best time, since banks are scheduled to be closed for the
following four days in celebration of Greek Orthodox Easter, which
occurs next Sunday. According to this report, currency bills in
Greece's traditional drachma currency have already been printed, and
Greece's government would use those four days to convert from the euro
currency back to the drachma currency.

Other reports suggest that Greece has been turning to Russia and China
for bailout funds that would permit it to retain the euro currency.
Russia might consider supplying these funds to Greece, in return for
Greece's full-throated opposition to EU sanctions against Russia.
China might consider supplying the funds as part of a deal to purchase
Greece's port of Piraeus, which China's Cosco shipping group would
like to buy.

Alternatively, the Europeans may manage, once again, to find a way to
"kick the can down the road," and permit Greece to get through the
current week's crisis and continue until the next crisis, which is
currently scheduled for July. Investment Watch and Economist


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Pakistan, Gwadar Port,
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Egypt, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Ukraine, Crimea, Yemen, Houthis, Egypt, Greece

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The other key thing about Gwadar is that it's ever so close to the Strait of Hormuz. It would also be a key place for airfields to support a long distance cruise missile strike against Diego Garcia. PLAAF versions of Tu-16, carrying PLAAF versions of the extended range version of Kh-55, could literally fly up and circle over a base in Gwadar, launch, and land. There is no possibility of a preemptive shoot down of the Tu-16s. The only hope would be trying to shoot down the cruise missiles themselves. Even more worrisome is this same scenario, vis a vis a base at the southern limit of Myanmar, even closer to Diego Garcia, in terms of air miles. Again, simply lift up over the base, launch, and land. For that matter, land based launches could be done but there is a drag penalty that would shorten the range, whereas circling at 45K feet above a base, there is not a significant drag penalty.

*** 5-Apr-15 World View -- Texts of Iran nuclear deal differ in English and Farsi versions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS pushes closer to Damascus through Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp
• Texts of Iran nuclear deal differ in English and Farsi versions
• Kenya's president: terrorists are 'deeply embedded' in Kenya

****
**** ISIS pushes closer to Damascus through Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp
****


Yarmouk residents queue up to receive humanitarian aid (Reuters)

Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) militias have taken
control of a southern district in Damascus, Syria, and are just a few
kilometers from the military headquarters of the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad. Al-Assad's army has suffered several
recent defeats, especially the major military defeat in Idlib,
and so it appears that ISIS may present a
real military challenge to the regime in its seat of power. Reports
indicate that ISIS is also receiving help from the al-Qaeda linked
Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), a group with which it often has
battles in other places and times.

ISIS's advance into Damascus is through the Yarmouk refugee camp, home
to about 18,000 Palestinian refugees. The camp has been under siege
from al-Assad's army since 2011, since al-Assad feared that the
Palestinian refugees would join the fight against him. In the last
couple of years, the Free Syrian Army and al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) have entered Yarmouk and fought each other,
making Yarmouk increasingly dangerous for the civilians living there.
Now the invasion of ISIS has turned Yarmouk into a humanitarian
disaster. Aid groups are unable to enter Yarmouk, with the result
that the civilians have no food and water, no electricity. Anyone who
leaves his home risks getting shot and killed by snipers on the
rooftops.

Other reports indicate that al-Assad's forces are trying to fight ISIS
by means of "violent shelling by the regime forces using tank shells
and ground-to-ground missiles," weapons that are more likely to kill
civilians than ISIS.

According to Hanan Ashrawi, international Palestinian activist and
executive of the Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO) government, on
Saturday:

<QUOTE>"Yarmouk is a test, a challenge for the international
community. We must not fail. The credibility of the international
system itself is at stake.

The current situation in the al-Yarmouk refugee camp is a
heartbreaking catastrophe.

Since December 2012, tens of thousands of men, women and children,
most of whom are Palestinian refugees, have been forced to flee
and have had their lives torn apart by war. The 18,000 residents
who remain in Yarmouk are in great danger from extremist groups,
including ISIS, that are seeking to take full control of the
camp.

We call on all members of the international community,
particularly the United Nations, European Union and the United
States, to safeguard the innocent people of Yarmouk and ensure
that all sides commit to a permanent ceasefire."<END QUOTE>

And yet, with almost the entire Mideast in flames these days, the
women and children in Yarmouk have little hope of receiving any
international aid quickly. ARA News (Syria) and AP and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Texts of Iran nuclear deal differ in English and Farsi versions
****

Iran's press has been euphoric and ecstatic over this week's nuclear
agreement between Iran and Western negotiators. Many newspapers are
devoting entire editors to the agreement. A typical headline is, "Our
nation is on the cusp of a great victory."

The American mainstream media, who are overwhelmingly Democratic and
always support President Obama no matter what he does, have stayed in
line by endorsing the deal, calling it "historic" or "a great victory
for Obama's legacy."

However, the more conservative New York Post hired a Farsi expert to
compare the Farsi version of the agreement, published by Iran, versus
the English version of the agreement, published by the White House,
and found some significant differences. Indeed, it's clear from the
two text versions that the claims of complete agreement between Iran
and the West are simply not true.

• The Iranian text uses different verb forms when describing
  Western and Iranian commitments. For example, the Iranian commitment,
  "The nuclear facilities at Fordow shall be developed into a center for
  nuclear research and advanced Physics" is written in the passive voice
  without specifying any time frame. But the Persian text uses a very
  aggressive active verb mood for Western commitments: "The United
  Nations shall abrogate its previous resolutions while the United
  States and the European Union will immediately lift sanctions [imposed
  on] financial, banking, insurance, investment and all services related
  to oil, gas, petrochemicals and car industry."
  
• In some cases, the two texts directly contradict each other. The
  American statement claims that Iran has agreed not to use advanced
  centrifuges, each of which could do the work of 10 old ones. The
  Iranian text, however, says that "on the basis of solutions found,
  work on advanced centrifuges shall continue on the basis of a 10-year
  plan."

To use the old joke, this is actually déjà vu all over again.
There was an interim nuclear agreement that Iran signed with the West
in November 2013 that had similar problems. The full text of that
agreement has never been published. U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry said that under the agreement Iran had no right to enrich
uranium, while Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated
that Iran had preserved its right to enrich uranium. The White House
published a "summary," but Iran completely rejected
the White House summary as "not true." Then,
in January 2014, Iran disclosed that there was a secret side agreement
to the nuclear agreement. The White House first confirmed this,
saying that the side agreement would be made public, and then denied
that there was a secret side agreement.

So it appears that we're starting off with the same kinds of lies and
deceptions that were part of the 2013 interim agreement.

There's another thing that's bothering me. During his "mission
accomplished" televised victory press conference earlier this week
after the deal was announced, President Obama referred to a fatwa
supposedly issued by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful, and that
forbids the development of nuclear weapons. The fatwa supposedly
says, "the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are
forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall
never acquire these weapons."

The problem is that nobody has ever seen this fatwa, because it
doesn't exist, according to a number of Iranian and Arab writers have
researched the issue. "18-Mar-14 World View -- Does Iran's anti-nuclear fatwa really exist, as claimed?"

So the question is: Why did Obama refer to this nonexistent fatwa? Is
he simply lying because he can always get away with lying? Does he
think the reporters in the mainstream media are so stupid that they
won't even check it out? Well, if that's what Obama thinks, then
Obama is probably right.

At any rate, it's pretty clear that President Obama is willing to say
and do anything to get the final deal with Iran ratified by the July 1
deadline. We'll see what he's willing to do as the weeks go by.
BBC and New York Post and Memri (17-Mar-2014) and Memri (4-Oct-2013)

****
**** Kenya's president: terrorists are 'deeply embedded' in Kenya
****

Following last week's slaughter of almost 150 Christian college
students attending Garissa University College in Kenya ( "3-Apr-15 World View -- Al-Shabaab kills 147 mostly Christian students in Kenya school"
), Kenya's
President Uhuru Kenyatta said on Saturday that those behind an attack
in which Al-Shabaab fighters killed 148 people at a university were
"deeply embedded" in Kenya. He called on Kenyan Muslims to help
prevent radicalization:

<QUOTE>"Our task of countering terrorism has been made all
the more difficult by the fact that the planners and financiers of
this brutality are deeply embedded in our communities.

Radicalization that breeds terrorism is not conducted in the bush
at night. It occurs in the full glare of day, in [Islamic
schools], in homes and in mosques with rogue imams."<END QUOTE>

On Saturday morning, al-Shabaab warned that there would be more
attacks, and that, "Kenyan cities will run red with blood." Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Damascus, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Yarmouk refugee camp,
Idlib, Palestinian Authority, PA, Hanan Ashrawi, Free Syrian Army,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Garissa

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Originally Posted by John

A few days ago, I reported on Pakistan's close relationship with Saudi Arabia.
As I've been saying for about ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
world is headed for a new "Clash of Civilizations" world war that will
pit the West, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries. Dawn (Pakistan) and Marine Link and Lowy Institute (Australia)

This thought just occurred to me. So that means that by each trip to Wally World and each Black Friday we're digging our hole deeper and deeper. We're "trading with enemy" by loading up with shit made in China and debting ourselves senseless as well. Congratulations USA for being duped into being sheeple con$umers by the manufactured "need" to have the latest Ishit, wider and wider flat screen TeeVee, etc.

Trips to Wally World = demand for oil from Sunnis as well.

*** 6-Apr-15 World View -- Many countries, but not US, are evacuating their citizens from Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen Houthis arrest Sunnis in Sanaa, as fighting continues in Aden
• Saudi Arabia razing villages near the border with Yemen
• Many countries, but not US, are evacuating their citizens from Yemen

****
**** Yemen Houthis arrest Sunnis in Sanaa, as fighting continues in Aden
****


Pro-Hadi fighters in Aden holding a position during clashes with Houthis on Saturday (AFP)

The Shia/Sunni sectarian divide in Yemen widened on Sunday when
Iran-back Shia Houthi militias raided the homes and offices and
arrested members of Islah party of Sunni politicians.

However, the main fighting is taking place in Aden, the southern port
city to which the internationally recognized president Abdu Rabu
Mansour Hadi fled in February, before leaving the country entirely.
The fighting is between Houthi militias that arrived from
the north versus Sunni tribes backing Hadi.

A coalition led by Saudi Arabia is conducting air strikes on Houthi
targets, but strikes on Houthi positions in Aden have so far failed to
stop the Houthi advance. Hadi is requesting the Saudi coalition to
send in ground troops. VOA and Irish Times

****
**** Saudi Arabia razing villages near the border with Yemen
****

Saudi Arabia is planning to raze 96 deserted villages along the border
with Yemen, Ten villages have already been demolished. The purpose is
to prevent the empty houses from turning into "a safe haven for
traffickers and infiltrators" from Yemen.

The villages were evacuated during a 2009-2010 conflict in which
Houthis crossed into Saudi Arabia from their stronghold in northern
Yemen. Some 15,000 inhabitants were forced to leave their homes and
move 50 km away, where "They are suffering from material hardship and
government marginalization," according to one resident.

People still living near the border between the two countries fear
that they'll be forced to move as well. However, a Saudi officials
denies that any orders have been given to move them, and that, "The
inhabitants of all the villages along the southern border region close
to Yemen are living normally and enjoying complete security and
stability." Middle East Eye and Al Arabiya

****
**** Many countries, but not US, are evacuating their citizens from Yemen
****

With Yemen collapsing further into chaos on a daily basis,
many countries are evacuating their citizens from Yemen. Many of
these people are foreign workers who came to Yemen to earn money.
Here are some examples:

• The Canadian government is confirming that Russian planes have
  evacuated an undisclosed number of Canadians from Yemen.
  
• India's defense has so far evacuated 1800 Indians from Yemen, by
  air and by sea. In addition, the Indian Navy is evacuating Indian
  nationals from Aden. In addition, there are 200 people belonging to
  20 different nations.
  
• The Chinese government dispatched a People’s Liberation Army
  (PLA) Navy frigate to help evacuate 225 nationals from 10 countries,
  including Pakistan, Ethiopia, Singapore, Italy, Germany, Poland,
  Ireland, Britain, Canada and Yemen. Chinese military officials
  confirmed that this was the first time that a Chinese military vessel
  evacuated non-Chinese citizens in a humanitarian assistance
  mission.
  
• Pakistan has evacuated 183 people from Yemen, including
  35 foreigners.
  
• Jordan has so far evacuated 157 Jordanians from Yemen in the
  last two days. They were evacuated by buses into Saudi Arabia,
  where they stayed in hotels awaiting air transfer to Jordan.
  
• Turkey has evacuated 230 people from Sanaa, the capital
  of Yemen, including 45 from other countries.
  
• Algeria has evacuated 160 citizens from Yemen, on a plane flown
  from Sanaa to Cairo provided by Algerian national carrier Air Algerie.
  In addition, 40 Tunisians, 15 Mauritians, eight Libyans, three
  Moroccans and a Palestinian were also flown out of Sanaa.
  
• Bangladesh estimates that there are about 1500 to 3000
  Bangladeshis living in Yemen, and is requesting help from
  India to evacuate them.
  
• Two Thai students were evacuated from Yemen on Sunday,
  and arrived in Bangkok, Thailand. The two students had
  been studying Modern Standard Arabic at a university in
  western Yemen. Another eight Thai students reached
  Saudi Arabia.

However, many Americans living in Yemen are feeling abandoned
after the State Dept. said that it has no plans to help evacuate
them. According to a State Department travel advisory
issued on Friday:

<QUOTE>"The level of instability and ongoing threats in Yemen
remain severe. There are no plans for a
U.S. government-coordinated evacuation of U.S. citizens at this
time. We encourage all U.S. citizens to shelter in a secure
location until they are able to depart safely. U.S. citizens
wishing to depart should do so via commercial transportation
options when they become available. Keep vital records and travel
documents close at hand; U.S. citizens should be prepared to
depart at a moment’s notice. The airports are currently closed,
but may open unexpectedly; other unforeseen opportunities to
depart may also suddenly arise.

Additionally, some foreign governments may arrange transportation
for their nationals and may be willing to offer assistance to
others. There is no guarantee that foreign governments will
assist U.S. citizens in leaving Yemen. U.S. citizens who choose
to seek foreign government assistance in leaving Yemen should only
do so if they can safely make their way to the point of
embarkation and have received confirmation that there is space
available. Even if assured there is space aboard transportation,
U.S. citizens should be aware that there is no guarantee that they
will be permitted to board the transport, or may have to wait an
indefinite period until they can do so. There is also no
guarantee of where travelers will go."<END QUOTE>

Canadian Broadcasting/AP and India.com and The Diplomat and Indian Express and Jordan Times and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and AFP and Bangladesh News and Bangkok Post and Guardian (London) and US State Department


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Aden, Saudi Arabia,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Sanaa, Iran

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For: XYMOX_4AD_84

Originally Posted by IAF101

> The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a farcical organization
> created by the Chinese to boost their ego - neither Russia nor any
> of the central Asian republics give it any credibility beyond
> pandering to the Chinese for some financial benefits. The Russians
> use it to stick it to American - but even the Russians are loath
> to let the Chinese take center stage. Pakistan is eager to be part
> of this grouping because being left without any friends in the
> West - it naturally gravitates towards the next master who will
> feed it slop from its table - China. India is there for the
> business - just like the rest of the central asian republics and
> china is loath to give it full member status - lest India actually
> profit from the SCO. 10:03 a.m., Monday April 6

http://www.breitbart.com/national-se...ent-1948973736

*** 7-Apr-15 World View -- Greece confirms that it will pay the IMF on Thursday and avoid bankruptcy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan parliament debates sending troops to Yemen to support Saudi Arabia
• Greece confirms that it will pay the IMF on Thursday and avoid bankruptcy

****
**** Pakistan parliament debates sending troops to Yemen to support Saudi Arabia
****


Pakistan parliament building

Pakistan's parliament is debating a request from Saudi Arabia to
actively join the coalition fighting the Iran-backed Shia Houthis in
Yemen, and to supply combat planes, warships and soldiers to the
effort. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have come to each other's aid
several times in the last decades, and so it's thought that Pakistan
now has a moral obligation to help with something that Saudi Arabia
considers a substantial threat to itself. Pakistanis urging rejection
of the request point out that Iran and Pakistan share a long border,
and say that Iran may retaliate against Pakistan if Pakistan
helps Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Pakistan has strategic relationships with only three countries: China,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia. Leaders from both Turkey and Pakistan are
meeting with each other and with leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia in
an attempt to resolve the conflict diplomatically, and to prevent it
from exploding into a larger regional war.

However, as I've been saying for years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the Mideast is headed for a war pitting Jews against Arabs,
Sunnis against Shias, and different ethnic groups against each other.
We have Muslims killing Muslims in large numbers in Libya, Syria, Iraq
and Yemen, and to a lesser extent in Egypt and Lebanon. In the past
year, the amount of bloodshed of Muslims killing Muslims seems to have
been increasing almost exponentially, and the growing Yemen war
continues that trend. The News (Pakistan) and Reuters and McClatchy

****
**** Greece confirms that it will pay the IMF on Thursday and avoid bankruptcy
****

There have been unconfirmed reports that Greece was going
into default on Wednesday, and then use the four-day bank holiday
leading up to Orthodox Easter on Sunday to convert the country's
currency from the euro back to the old drachmas.

But Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis met with Christine Lagarde, the
managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Sunday
and confirmed that Greece will make the scheduled 450 million euro
($494 million) bailout loan interest payment to the IMF on Thursday,
and would avoid bankruptcy.

Greece is almost out of cash, and will delay paying pensions and
public employee wages in order to make the debt repayment. At the
same time, Greece is begging the IMF and the eurozone finance
ministers to hurry up and provide the next bailout tranche. Kathimerini and Capital (Greece)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Yemen,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde,
Greece, Yanis Varoufakis

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Here's an interesting book:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/1594037566/...Q?tag=f0c0b-20

I know this somewhat conflicts with the Generational Dynamics forecast. However, it perfectly aligns with the notion of a (Total) Crisis War.