These are people for whom history always begins this morning. As farOriginally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84
as I'm concerned, anyone who thinks that China and Russia are going to
be aligned against the West doesn't have the vaguest clue what he's
talking about.
Right? What a bunch of morons. It'd be like archrivals France and Britain setting aside their historical emnities and imperial rivalries in order to band against a common threat. How utterly ridiculous. You might as well posit them linking up with Tsarist Russia, too. Or maybe the Nazi party would ally with those bucktoothed Japs against their fellow Aryans in Great Britain! Apparently these idiots aren't familiar with history at all!
The Russians love the Europeans even when they're at war. The
Russians hate the Mongols even when they're at peace.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1594037566/...Q?tag=f0c0b-20> The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of
> Leadership Hardcover – September 9, 2014
> by Douglas E. Schoen (Author), Melik Kaylan (Author)
> The United States is a nation in crisis. While Washington’s
> ability to address our most pressing challenges has been rendered
> nearly impotent by ongoing partisan warfare, we face an array of
> foreign-policy crises for which we seem increasingly
> unprepared. Among these, none is more formidable than the
> unprecedented partnership developing between Russia and China,
> suspicious neighbors for centuries and fellow Communist
> antagonists during the Cold War. The two longtime foes have drawn
> increasingly close together because of a confluence of
> geostrategic, political, and economic interests—all of which
> Most Helpful Customer Reviews
> 9 of 10 people found the following review helpful
> Not a good value for your money, less than second rate
> By Frederick Chen on December 30, 2014
> Format: Hardcover
> Save your money. This book is mostly a collection of widely
> available information, charges that are not proved and some
> hyperbole. The authors hint darkly that David Snowden was either a
> Chinese or Soviet spy without giving any evidence. They make a
> huge deal out of the fact that the Russians have provided the
> Syrian government with over a billion dollars of weapons since
> 1991. But that works out to less than $200 million a year..They
> excoriate G W Bush for the burdens of going into Iraq and
> Afghanistan and ,then they also excoriate Obama for not going into
> Syria. They lambaste the Obama administration for its negotiating
> position on the Iran nuclear deal. Nowhere do they provide an
> alternatives.
> They criticize the G HW Bush and Clinton for not being tough
> enough on Russian when they were down as if being tougher then
> would make the Russians more amenable today. If you have to read
> the book, get it at the library.
This book looks absolutely awful. Worse, it appears to be absolutely
idiotic.
Which Russians are not part Mongol? I know there are a few ... but how many?
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/i...0221316AA1vCdK> How much mongol blood does an average russian have?
> ...
> According to genetic research it's 2% on average. Which is
> 1/50th. Compared to other European ethnicities Russians are among
> the most pure (which I am not saying is a good thing as there is
> nothing wrong with asian people).
8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
*** 8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
- Why do Awakening era civil wars always fizzle?
- US speeds up weapons deliveries to militias in Yemen
****
**** Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
****
Al-Assad's warplanes bomb the town of Kasab in Latakia province, after the army loses the town to opposition forces (Anadolu)
It was just last year that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was
claiming that in 2015 his army would defeat all terrorists and their
supporters in Syria, blaming the terrorism on Israel and its allies.
Blaming Israel for the rise of Islamic State (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh)
and Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) in Syria would have to be
considered at best a fantasy and at worst a delusion. But the promise
of victory in 2015 is perhaps the biggest self-delusion of all, and
appears less and less likely each week.
A major turning point in the international perception of al-Assad's
army occurred a couple of weeks ago when the regime's army suffered a major military setback,
and
was defeated by Jabhat al-Nusra, which captured Idlib. That was in
northern Syria. Al-Assad's army is faring no better in southern
Syria, where ISIS captured Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp,
putting ISIS within a few miles of al-Assad's
seat of power in Damascus.
Al-Assad's reaction to those defeats is to bomb both Idlib and
Yarmouk. Bombing these cities will be very effective in killing
innocent women and children, but will do very little to stop the
advance of al-Nusra and ISIS.
New reports indicate that these two defeats are not flukes, and that
al-Assad's army is badly fracturing.
Al-Assad is a member of the Shia Alawite race, which broke away from
mainstream Shia Islam in the ninth century. Since many of the forces
that al-Assad's army is fighting are Sunnis, al-Assad does not trust
Sunnis in his own army, for fear that they'll defect to the other
side.
The result is that Alawites form the bulk of al-Assad's army, and are
suffering the bulk of casualties, even though they're only a tenth of
Syria's population.
The figures are staggering. There were about two million Alawites at
the start of the war, with perhaps 250,000 men of fighting age.
Today, as many as one-third of these are dead. Over 22,000 al-Assad
soldiers and militiamen were killed in 2014 alone, the bulk of them
Alawites.
When ordinary Alawite soldiers die in al-Assad's army, their corpses
are returned to their homes piled up in plain pickup trucks. They are
followed by the "press gangs": military recruiters raid Alawite houses
to find replacements, and force them into the army.
The result is that the Alawites are trapped -- hated by the Sunnis for
joining the army and killing Sunnis, but unable to escape the clutches
of the press gangs.
This explains why al-Assad's army appears to be collapsing. At the
beginning, al-Assad promised the Alawites quick victories and rich
rewards. Those promises have gone the way of "you can keep your
doctor." Today, the Alawites do not wish to be in the army, and
probably couldn't care less who's in control of Idlib or Yarmouk.
Telegraph (London) and Joshua Landis and Guardian (London)
****
**** Why do Awakening era civil wars always fizzle?
****
I've been criticized for writing in 2011, and repeating several times,
that a crisis civil war cannot continue for long in a generational
Awakening era, and so Syria's civil war would soon fizzle. The
criticism was that this prediction allegedly turned out to be false.
Actually, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the civil
war in Syria fizzled some time ago, and so the prediction turned out
to be true. Certainly what's going on today cannot seriously be
called a civil war, certainly not in the sense of generational theory.
On the one hand, you have Bashar al-Assad's fracturing army of
Alawites, as described in the story above, surviving only because of
massive supplies of weapons from Russia, and troops from Hezbollah and
Iran. On the other hand, you have the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) depending on thousands of jihadists from countries
around the world, and a weak Free Syrian Army.
But let's dig deeper into this. Why is this not a real civil war, and
why did it have to fizzle?
Let's start with what a real civil war would look like from the point
of view of generational theory. You would have the Alawites full of
hatred for the Sunnis and the Sunnis full of hatred for the Alawites,
with each side wishing to exterminate the other. That's what a crisis
civil war would look like. The last one occurred in the 1970s and
early 1980s, and the previous one occurred roughly 70 years earlier
during World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
Every generational crisis war ends in what I like to call an
"explosive climax," something so horrible that both winners and losers
are traumatized by it. In World War II, America and the allies
firebombed Dresden and Tokyo, and nuked two Japanese cities. Today,
these acts are generally accepted as necessary to have protected
American lives, but in the decades after the war, these acts were
widely condemned by armchair critics.
However, the "explosive climax" need not be an actual explosion,
because it refers to a political explosion. Actually, there were two
such explosive climaxes in the region in 1982. The Palestinian
refugee camps at Sabra and Shatila in Lebanon were the site of a
massacre of Palestinian refugees in camps 1982. And Syria's last
extremely bloody civil climaxed in the 1982 slaughter of tens of
thousands of Syrians in Homa.
Like the actions that ended World War II, these mass slaughters still
weigh heavily on the psyches of the survivors of the Syrian and
Lebanese civil wars, respectively, of the 1980s. I discussed this
fear several times with regard to Lebanon in the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah. I
quoted Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying:
<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>
The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of something like the
1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered that to be a worse
possibility than Israeli bombers.
So now returning to today's situation in Syria, we have a population
of Syrians with no desire for a civil war, who are being propelled by
forces beyond their control. The Alawites vividly recall the horrors
of what happened in 1982, and have no desire to repeat them. The
Sunnis, whose women and children are being bombed every day by
al-Assad's warplanes, with bombs supplied by Russia, have responded by
creating ISIS and al-Nusra, and recruited jihadists from around the
world to fight al-Assad, his Russian weapons, and his Hezbollah and
Iranian allies. AP
****
**** US speeds up weapons deliveries to militias in Yemen
****
The war in Yemen escalated by one more step on Tuesday, when the US
announced that it was setting up an American coordination center in
Saudi Arabia, and would speed up weapons deliveries to anti-Houthi
militias in Aden, in south Yemen. According to US Deputy Secretary of
State Antony Blinken in Riyadh:
<QUOTE>"Saudi Arabia is sending a strong message to the
Houthis and their allies that they cannot overrun Yemen by force.
As part of that effort, we have expedited weapons deliveries, we
have increased our intelligence sharing, and we have established a
joint coordination planning cell in the Saudi operation
centre."<END QUOTE>
Saudi airstrikes so far have failed to stop the Houthis, and officials
hope that expedited weapons deliveries will help. Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Alawites, Shias, Sunnis,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Yarmouk refugee camp, Lebanon,
Sabra, Shatila, Homa, Dresden, Tokyo, Émile Geamil Lahoud, Russia,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Aden, Antony Blinken
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
The Saudis and Iranians need to get down into the muck with each other, full tactical. Aerial bombing is highly ineffective against large formations let alone special forces / guerrilla warfare. Mano a mano!*** 8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
- Why do Awakening era civil wars always fizzle?
- US speeds up weapons deliveries to militias in Yemen
****
**** Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
****
Al-Assad's warplanes bomb the town of Kasab in Latakia province, after the army loses the town to opposition forces (Anadolu)
It was just last year that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was
claiming that in 2015 his army would defeat all terrorists and their
supporters in Syria, blaming the terrorism on Israel and its allies.
Blaming Israel for the rise of Islamic State (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh)
and Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) in Syria would have to be
considered at best a fantasy and at worst a delusion. But the promise
of victory in 2015 is perhaps the biggest self-delusion of all, and
appears less and less likely each week.
A major turning point in the international perception of al-Assad's
army occurred a couple of weeks ago when the regime's army suffered a major military setback,
and
was defeated by Jabhat al-Nusra, which captured Idlib. That was in
northern Syria. Al-Assad's army is faring no better in southern
Syria, where ISIS captured Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp,
putting ISIS within a few miles of al-Assad's
seat of power in Damascus.
Al-Assad's reaction to those defeats is to bomb both Idlib and
Yarmouk. Bombing these cities will be very effective in killing
innocent women and children, but will do very little to stop the
advance of al-Nusra and ISIS.
New reports indicate that these two defeats are not flukes, and that
al-Assad's army is badly fracturing.
Al-Assad is a member of the Shia Alawite race, which broke away from
mainstream Shia Islam in the ninth century. Since many of the forces
that al-Assad's army is fighting are Sunnis, al-Assad does not trust
Sunnis in his own army, for fear that they'll defect to the other
side.
The result is that Alawites form the bulk of al-Assad's army, and are
suffering the bulk of casualties, even though they're only a tenth of
Syria's population.
The figures are staggering. There were about two million Alawites at
the start of the war, with perhaps 250,000 men of fighting age.
Today, as many as one-third of these are dead. Over 22,000 al-Assad
soldiers and militiamen were killed in 2014 alone, the bulk of them
Alawites.
When ordinary Alawite soldiers die in al-Assad's army, their corpses
are returned to their homes piled up in plain pickup trucks. They are
followed by the "press gangs": military recruiters raid Alawite houses
to find replacements, and force them into the army.
The result is that the Alawites are trapped -- hated by the Sunnis for
joining the army and killing Sunnis, but unable to escape the clutches
of the press gangs.
This explains why al-Assad's army appears to be collapsing. At the
beginning, al-Assad promised the Alawites quick victories and rich
rewards. Those promises have gone the way of "you can keep your
doctor." Today, the Alawites do not wish to be in the army, and
probably couldn't care less who's in control of Idlib or Yarmouk.
Telegraph (London) and Joshua Landis and Guardian (London)
****
**** Why do Awakening era civil wars always fizzle?
****
I've been criticized for writing in 2011, and repeating several times,
that a crisis civil war cannot continue for long in a generational
Awakening era, and so Syria's civil war would soon fizzle. The
criticism was that this prediction allegedly turned out to be false.
Actually, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the civil
war in Syria fizzled some time ago, and so the prediction turned out
to be true. Certainly what's going on today cannot seriously be
called a civil war, certainly not in the sense of generational theory.
On the one hand, you have Bashar al-Assad's fracturing army of
Alawites, as described in the story above, surviving only because of
massive supplies of weapons from Russia, and troops from Hezbollah and
Iran. On the other hand, you have the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) depending on thousands of jihadists from countries
around the world, and a weak Free Syrian Army.
But let's dig deeper into this. Why is this not a real civil war, and
why did it have to fizzle?
Let's start with what a real civil war would look like from the point
of view of generational theory. You would have the Alawites full of
hatred for the Sunnis and the Sunnis full of hatred for the Alawites,
with each side wishing to exterminate the other. That's what a crisis
civil war would look like. The last one occurred in the 1970s and
early 1980s, and the previous one occurred roughly 70 years earlier
during World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
Every generational crisis war ends in what I like to call an
"explosive climax," something so horrible that both winners and losers
are traumatized by it. In World War II, America and the allies
firebombed Dresden and Tokyo, and nuked two Japanese cities. Today,
these acts are generally accepted as necessary to have protected
American lives, but in the decades after the war, these acts were
widely condemned by armchair critics.
However, the "explosive climax" need not be an actual explosion,
because it refers to a political explosion. Actually, there were two
such explosive climaxes in the region in 1982. The Palestinian
refugee camps at Sabra and Shatila in Lebanon were the site of a
massacre of Palestinian refugees in camps 1982. And Syria's last
extremely bloody civil climaxed in the 1982 slaughter of tens of
thousands of Syrians in Homa.
Like the actions that ended World War II, these mass slaughters still
weigh heavily on the psyches of the survivors of the Syrian and
Lebanese civil wars, respectively, of the 1980s. I discussed this
fear several times with regard to Lebanon in the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah. I
quoted Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying:
<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>
The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of something like the
1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered that to be a worse
possibility than Israeli bombers.
So now returning to today's situation in Syria, we have a population
of Syrians with no desire for a civil war, who are being propelled by
forces beyond their control. The Alawites vividly recall the horrors
of what happened in 1982, and have no desire to repeat them. The
Sunnis, whose women and children are being bombed every day by
al-Assad's warplanes, with bombs supplied by Russia, have responded by
creating ISIS and al-Nusra, and recruited jihadists from around the
world to fight al-Assad, his Russian weapons, and his Hezbollah and
Iranian allies. AP
****
**** US speeds up weapons deliveries to militias in Yemen
****
The war in Yemen escalated by one more step on Tuesday, when the US
announced that it was setting up an American coordination center in
Saudi Arabia, and would speed up weapons deliveries to anti-Houthi
militias in Aden, in south Yemen. According to US Deputy Secretary of
State Antony Blinken in Riyadh:
<QUOTE>"Saudi Arabia is sending a strong message to the
Houthis and their allies that they cannot overrun Yemen by force.
As part of that effort, we have expedited weapons deliveries, we
have increased our intelligence sharing, and we have established a
joint coordination planning cell in the Saudi operation
centre."<END QUOTE>
Saudi airstrikes so far have failed to stop the Houthis, and officials
hope that expedited weapons deliveries will help. Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Alawites, Shias, Sunnis,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Yarmouk refugee camp, Lebanon,
Sabra, Shatila, Homa, Dresden, Tokyo, Émile Geamil Lahoud, Russia,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Aden, Antony Blinken
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Platitudes, really? In the same vein, "the wogs begin at Calais".
Several people have asked for a prediction
of what happens after Assad's army collapses.
The answer to that is mostly political, so it's impossible to predict.
The only outcome we can be sure of is total chaos. Beyond that, the
following is my rambling guess:
Right now, ISIS is in the lead to become the major power in Syria, and
indeed, they're closing in on Damascus from the south.
So let's suppose ISIS takes over in Syria. What they would like is a
Sunni version of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, where the
country's entire population unified behind the hardline Shia clerics.
But "unified populations" are only possible during generational Crisis
eras. Syria today is in a generational Awakening era, and if you
think back to America in the 1960s-70s, then you can imagine how
unlikely it is that Syria's population will be unified behind any sort
of government. In fact, the whole point of today's article is that
even the Alawites aren't unified behind the current al-Assad
government.
So what would happen to ISIS in such an environment?
One analogy is deadly viruses. If a virus wants to create a pandemic,
it can't just kill the infected person, because then the infected
person won't be around to spread it. It has to ameliorate its
functions by becoming less severe and less deadly, letting more people
live comfortably so that they can spread it.
So, applying that analogy to ISIS, they'd have to ameliorate their
behaviors in order to make themselves acceptable to the larger Sunni
population. In doing so, they would also make themselves more
acceptable to the Saudis and other Sunni nations.
But even so, the existence of an ISIS government would panic Iran,
Russia and the West, leading to increased secular tensions in the
Mideast, and possibly a secular war within Syria itself.
In the meantime, a secular war in Yemen is worsening every day.
All we need now is some triggering event to make the whole thing
explode. One example would be an attack on an oil tanker the Bab el
Mandeb strait or Strait of Hormuz. That's one of many examples of
events that would FORCE retaliation, and could spiral into a larger
war.
All I can tell you is that over the years I've repeatedly come to the> Platitudes, really? In the same vein, "the wogs begin at
> Calais".
conclusion that Russians love Europeans and hate Mongols. I recall
getting this very strong impression in some of the history books that
I read early on. I'll try to think about it some more, and see if I
can come up with more concrete reasons (such as: Russians always want
their kids educated in Europe, Russia is closely tied to Byzantium and
Constantinople, Russia's major wars with Europe were crisis wars for
Europe but non-crisis wars for Russia, Russia's major crisis wars were
with Mongols or Muslims, etc.) Russians love Putin, and Putin hates
Europe, but that doesn't mean that Russians hate Europe.
Breaking news. The PLO (BTW, not the PA, but the PLO) has declared war against ISIS.
Do you have a link?
http://www.sana.sy/en/?p=35374
Barry channeling Ike:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the...ors_picks=true
Love it!
9-Apr-15 World View -- Fears of tribal and ethnic violence in Kenya continue
*** 9-Apr-15 World View -- Fears of tribal and ethnic violence in Kenya continue
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Germany fears wave of xenophobia after arson attack on refugee home
- U.S. begins daily aerial refueling for Saudi warplanes in Yemen
- Fears of tribal and ethnic violence in Kenya continue
****
**** Germany fears wave of xenophobia after arson attack on refugee home
****
Neo-Nazi National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD)
Early Saturday morning, criminals broke into an apartment building in
the town of Tröglitz in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany
and set the building on fire. The building was being remodeled to
accommodate 40 asylum-seekers, starting in May. It's feared that this
may signal new xenophobic attacks across the country.
Tröglitz was first established in the 1930s to provide housing for
workers at a local coal mine, but after the fall of the Berlin Wall in
1989, the mine closed and some 4,500 jobs disappeared, leaving few
work opportunities. This has provided an effective recruiting
backdrop for parties like the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party of
Germany (NPD), for which some politicians are calling to be banned.
Asylum-seekers have been putting a strain on municipalities across
Germany. It's estimated that 250,000 refugees will arrive from Germany
this year, an increase of 80,000 over 2013. Many come from Syria and
the Balkan states. Deutsche-Welle and Der Spiegel and TheLocal (Germany)
****
**** U.S. begins daily aerial refueling for Saudi warplanes in Yemen
****
For Wednesday's Yemen war escalation du jour, the
United States has started aerial refueling for warplanes in the
Saudi-led coalition carrying out airstrikes in Yemen. The refueling
flights will take place daily. However, all US flights will remain
outside Yemen's air space.
On Tuesday, the US announced that it was stepping up intelligence
sharing with the Saudi-led coalition and expediting the delivery of
precision-guided bombs to the Saudis and their Gulf allies.
Iran has condemned the Saudi-led intervention, and has sent two
warships to the Gulf of Aden Wednesday, saying they would protect
Iranian shipping from piracy. Daily Star (Beirut)
****
**** Fears of tribal and ethnic violence in Kenya continue
****
About 2500 of Kenya's residents, both Muslims and Christians, marched
in the town of Garissa on Tuesday to protest al-Shabaab, the Somali
terrorist group responsible for the slaughter of 148 people, most of
them Christian students, last week at Garissa University College. The
raid, the deadliest since al-Qaeda bombed the U.S. Embassy in the
capital, Nairobi, in 1998, was at least the fifth massacre by
al-Shabaab since it stormed the upmarket Westgate shopping mall less
than two years ago.
The protesters were also critical of Kenya's security forces for not
doing enough to prevent such a massacre, and then for not responding
quickly enough as news of massacre spread. There had been material
previously circulating on social media warning about the attacks.
On Wednesday, hundreds of Somalis of Kenyan descent, marched in
Eastleigh, a suburb of Nairobi, once again to protest Al-Shabaab.
Initially it was feared that these protests would lead to communal
violence between Kenyans and Somalis, but those fears are subsiding
now as no such violence has occurred.
Communal violence is not new to Kenya. Following the national
elections in December 2007, there was massive violence, particularly
in Rift Valley, killing over 1,100 people and leaving over 600,000
homeless.
Communal violence in the northeast regions of Kenya killed
hundreds of people last year. Two ethnic groups, the Turkana
and the Pokot, have been responsible for the communal violence
in the far north of Kenya. For years, the two groups have
been fighting over the usual kinds of things -- water resources,
land, cattle rustling, and so forth.
But two years ago, a find of 600 million to one billion barrels of oil
was discovered in Turkana's land, right next to the Pokot land. This
oil has the potential to bring wealth to both tribes, but the Turkana
are claiming it for their own, and the Pokot are threatening to kill
the Turkana and take over the oil wells. As a result, the two tribes
have been locked in a cycle of ever-increasing retaliatory violence,
with whole villages burned to the ground and unarmed civilians killed.
Caught in the middle is the Anglo-Irish exploration company, Tullow
Oil. According to a spokesman:
<QUOTE>"People live off their land, the way they lived
hundreds of years ago, in most cases. Here you have big industry
and technology coming in with pastoralist communities. There are
always going to be challenges. We are not going to agree on
everything."<END QUOTE>
However, the government in Nairobi is saying that the oil wealth
doesn't belong to either the Turkana or the Pokot -- that it belongs
to the government of Nairobi.
When I wrote about the communal violence that followed the December
2007 election ( "Kenya almost -- but not quite on the brink of genocidal ethnic war"
), I
pointed out that Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau
Rebellion, that climaxed in 1956. By 2008, only 52 years had passed,
which is usually not enough time for a new generational crisis war to
begin. (Usually, at least 58 years are needed.) Based on that
analysis, I concluded that the communal violence at that time would
soon fizzled out, which is exactly what happened.
But now 7 more years have passed, and we're 59 years past the climax
of the Mau-Mau Rebellion. So Kenya is well past the time when a new
generational crisis war can start. So the fears of new communal
violence today are well founded, and any occurrence could spiral into
a wider war. The Nation (Pakistan) and International Business Times and United Nations
and VOA
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Saxony-Anhalt, Tröglitz,
National Democratic Party of Germany, NPD,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Gulf of Aden, Iran,
Kenya, Somalia, al-Shabaab, Garissa, Eastleigh,
Rift Valley, Turkana, Pokot, Tullow Oil, Mau-Mau Rebellion
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
It is good to see that the USAF is revamping and sprucing up the refueling logistics network, recently with the Polar / Northern Russian coast exercise, and now, with the "real world" operations near Yemen. This is a must do. Tu-95 has a longer range and can orbit longer than B-52 (which is our own "fuel miser" versus kerosene guzzlers such as B-1 and B-2). The other issue is that our cruise missiles lack the range of the best Kh-series. Therefore, in order to engage in tet a tet, we must have superior refueling logistics.
tête-à-tête
At times I read various inaccurate characterizations of Russian military capability. Common screeds include "Russia's military is decrepit" and "Tu-95 is an old, slow, prop driven bomber."
Let us discuss the latter a bit more. It is actually a rather amazing craft, especially considering it has been in service nearly as long as the B-52 series (which in and of itself is also a remarkable turn of events).
Who could have imagined a working Propfan engine, over 60 years ago?
And yet, there it was. Yes, one of the following, 60 years ago.
http://www.b-domke.de/AviationImages/Propfan/0810.html
Last edited by XYMOX_4AD_84; 04-09-2015 at 01:54 PM.
10-Apr-15 World View -- Syria's Yarmouk camp descends into the 'deepest hell'
*** 10-Apr-15 World View -- Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp descends into the 'deepest circle of Hell'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp descends into the 'deepest circle of Hell'
- Palestinians flip-flop on Syrian action in Yarmouk refugee camp
- Europe demands list of reforms from Greece after numerous delays
- Iran's demands on sanctions threaten to unravel nuclear deal
****
**** Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp descends into the 'deepest circle of Hell'
****
Scene of destruction in Yarmouk refugee camp (dpa)
Ever since Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp
was captured last week by the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), putting ISIS within a few miles of al-Assad's seat of
power in Damascus, the camp has turning into what United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is calling "the deepest circle of Hell."
For the last two years, Yarmouk has been under siege by the army of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who was afraid that the 18,000
Palestinian refugees living there would side with the jihadists
against him. But now that ISIS has invaded and captured Yarmouk, the
residents "are pinned down by sniper fire, fearing for their lives, as
shelling and aerial attacks escalate," according to Amnesty
International.
According to Ban:
<QUOTE>"The refugee camp is beginning to resemble a death
camp. ... "What is unfolding in Yarmouk is unacceptable. We
simply cannot stand by and watch a massacre unfold."<END QUOTE>
Daily Star (Beirut) and Deutsche-Welle and Daily Times (Pakistan)
****
**** Palestinians flip-flop on Syrian action in Yarmouk refugee camp
****
This situation is posing an intolerable political situation for
the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). On the one hand,
the PLO opposes Bashar al-Assad because he has massacred hundreds
of thousands of innocent Arab women and children, and even used
Sarin gas against them, for peacefully demonstrating against him
On the other hand, the PLO is demanding that something be done to save
the Palestinians. Two days ago Ahmad Majdalani, a member of the PLO
executive committee, said: "The Palestinian leadership and the PLO
will support any decision taken by the Syrian government regarding
al-Yarmouk Camp."
On Thursday, however, the PLO issued a statement repudiating
Majdalani's support for a Syrian regime solution, saying, "We refuse
to be drawn into any armed campaign, whatever its nature or cover, and
we call for resorting to other means to spare the blood of our people
and prevent more destruction and displacement for our people of the
camp."
That was followed later on Thursday by an announcement by 14
Palestinian factions, led by the same PLO executive, Ahmad Majdalani,
saying:
<QUOTE>"[The factions support] a security solution that will
be carried out in partnership with the Syrian state and will have
as its priority maintaining the security of
citizens."<END QUOTE>
The only thing that we can make of all this is that the entire Mideast
is spiraling into chaos, with blood running in the streets in several
countries. Generational Dynamics predicts that a full-scale
generational crisis war will engulf the Mideast, pitting Israelis
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, various ethnic groups against
each other, and even various factions against each other. I've been
saying this for year, and it seems that every day brings it
significantly closer. SANA (Syria) and Reuters and Al Arabiya
****
**** Europe demands list of reforms from Greece after numerous delays
****
Greece's central bank scraped together 450 million euros, and made the
loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that was
scheduled for Thursday, thus delaying once again the threat of a Greek
bankruptcy, which would force Greece to leave the eurozone and return
to its traditional drachma currency.
However, Greece's woes are far from over. Greece has to pay another
400 million euros on April 14, then another payment of 900 million
euros at the end of the month. Then, during May, Greece will have to
pay 2.1 billion euros for salaries and pensions.
Greece's radical left wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras has literally
been begging and pleading for money from the IMF and Europeans,
but both are pointing out that Tsipras has failed to meet
one of his own commitments.
In February, the Europeans gave Tsipras a four-month reprieve, on
condition that he come up with a list of reforms to explain how it's
going to meet the existing terms of its bailout agreement. The list
of reforms would have to address a number of economic issues,
including the bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and
corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous
pension and minimum wage policies. That list has never been provided,
and in fact, spending has been increase for "humanitarian needs" among
Greeks in poverty.
The next Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers is scheduled
for April 24, and the Europeans are demanding that Tsipras provide
that list of reforms before that meeting, if he wants to get any more
bailout money. Reuters
****
**** Iran's demands on sanctions threaten to unravel nuclear deal
****
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei spoke out for the
first time since the nuclear deal was signed last week between Iran
and the West. Khamenei called the Obama administration liars, and
said that Obama's published fact sheet was not what was agreed. This
will not be a surprise to Generational Dynamics readers, as we've
reported Khamenei's similar statements in the last few weeks. But
apparently it's a big surprise to the reporters at the NY Times and
NBC News, who are too young and stupid to check out any facts.
According to Khamenei's statement on Thursday:
<QUOTE>“I was never optimistic about negotiating with
America, not based on hallucinations, rather based on
experience. ... However, I agreed with these particular
negotiations. I have supported—with all my existence—and will
support the negotiators.”
“I support a deal that would guarantee the Iranian nation's honor
and interests.”
“I trust our negotiators—know this—I have no doubts about them,
... but I have serious concerns about the other side. ... An
example of this occurred in the last round of negotiations. The
White House, approximately two hours after the negotiations,
issued a multi-page statement they called ‘fact sheet’ on account
of the [framework agreement] which was mostly untrue.”
On sanctions: “All sanctions must be removed when a deal is
reached. If sanctions are linked to another process, then the
talks are meaningless, because the purpose of the negotiations was
to remove sanctions.”
On inspections: “They [inspectors] should not be allowed to
penetrate at all into the country's security and defensive
boundaries under the pretext of supervision, and the country's
military officials are not permitted to allow the foreigners to
cross these boundaries at all or stop the country's defensive
development under the pretext of supervision and inspection."
“Some criminal countries, who themselves have either used a
nuclear weapon against a country, like America, or France who has
tested weapons in the ocean, which is illegal and bad for the
environment, yet they accuse us of pursuing weapons. Islam and our
logic and reason forbid us from acquiring nuclear
weapons.”<END QUOTE>
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani reaffirmed Khamenei's statement on
Thursday, and repeated that Iran has already been the victims of
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) at the hands of Iraq's
Saddam Hussein:
<QUOTE>“The West supported Saddam with aircrafts, missiles,
chemical weapons... and we [Iran] were empty handed. ... With
determination and faith our nation was victorious.”
“If we wanted to obtain chemicals, which is far easier than
obtaining nuclear weapons, surely we would; we are the victims of
chemical weapons; however, we did not retaliate and joined the
convention banning use and stockpiling of chemical weapons
instead; this is a clear indication that our nation does not need
such horrible weapons.”<END QUOTE>
So it appears that John Kerry and Barack Obama were simply lying last
week when they said there was an agreement.
There are three major areas of disagreement:
- Iran is demanding that all sanctions be removed immediately,
which would immediately free billions of dollars in frozen Iranian
assets to become unfrozen; Obama has stated repeatedly that they'll be
removed over a period of years.- Iran is claiming that there will be no restrictions whatsoever on
further nuclear research; Kerry repeatedly said that Iran had agreed
to various restrictions, such as not using advanced centrifuges, which
Iran specifically repudiated.- President Obama has said repeatedly that "The deal is not based on
trust; it's based on unprecedented verification." But Khamenei is
saying that no verification will be permitted on military
bases.
Obama and Kerry have had one foreign policy disaster after another,
and they're going to be desperate to save this one, by deferring and
yielding on every point possible. A final deal is scheduled for July
1. AEI Iran Tracker
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Yarmouk refugee camp,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ban Ki-moon, Palestine Liberation Organization, PLO,
Ahmad Majdalani,
Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Alexis Tsipras,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani,
Iraq, Saddam Hussein
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11-Apr-15 World View -- Pakistan reneges on promise to prosecute 26/11 Mumbai attack
*** 11-Apr-15 World View -- Pakistan reneges on promise to prosecute 26/11 Mumbai attack mastermind
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Pakistan reneges on promise to prosecute 26/11 Mumbai attack mastermind
- Obama to meet with Cuban leader Raul Castro
- Pakistan adopts a neutral stance in the Yemen war
****
**** Pakistan reneges on promise to prosecute 26/11 Mumbai attack mastermind
****
Mumbai's Taj Mahal Palace Hotel during the 2008 terror attack
The government of Pakistan has released on bail Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi,
the mastermind behind the horrendous 26/11 terrorist attack on a
number of hotels in Mumbai, India. The attacks began on November 26,
2008, and lasted three days, killing 166 people, and wounding hundreds
more. ( "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis"
from 2008)
The attack was perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Taibi (LeT), a Pakistani
terrorist group that was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to fight India in the
disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. After the attack, India
threatened to send its army to attack LeT on Pakistani soil, which
might have led to a major war. This was prevented by hard
intervention by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Part of the agreement was that Pakistan would track down and
prosecute the LeT terrorists who perpetrated the Mumbai attack.
Lakhvi has been kept in prison, but it's been pretty clear for years
that Pakistan's government is reluctant to prosecute him, possibly out
of fear that ISI officials had foreknowledge of, or were complicit in,
the Mumbai attack. Now, a Pakistani high court has ordered the Lakhvi
be released on bail, and it's thought that he'll never be prosecuted.
Lakhvi is now the leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), which is a front
group for LeT.
The government of India has expressed fury at the release, saying that
Pakistan only wants to prosecute Taliban terrorists who attack targets
within Pakistan, but gives a free hand to terrorists like LeT that
attack targets in India and Afghanistan. India has launched a formal
protest, and suggested that additional retaliatory steps will be
taken.
Lakhvi came out of court declaring victory and pumping his fist in a
defiant gesture. He was taken to a “secret and secure” location by
JuD cadres who were in court on Friday. The News (Pakistan) and Mumbai Mirror
****
**** Obama to meet with Cuban leader Raul Castro
****
President Barack Obama and Cuba's president Raul Castro are expected
to meet on Saturday at the Summit of the Americas Conference in Panama
City. The agenda will be to convince Obama to lift embargoes and
sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela.
The opening of relations between the US and Cuba became inevitable in
2010, when Cuba announced the end of its Communist economy. (See
"16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications"
) Fifty years after the
Cuban revolution, all the fanatical survivors of the 1959 war are old
or dead, and the younger generations are more anxious to have internet
access and new cars than to satisfy the ideological needs of some old
Communist geezers.
One thing that's never stated often enough is that communism and
socialism have failed every time they've been tried, and have usually
ended up in a massive bloodbath.
Every now and then you'll hear some loony left activist saying that
communism is superior to capitalism, which is a moronic thing to say,
given the catastrophic experiences of Russia, East Germany, China,
Cuba, and other countries. Today, the People's Paradise of North
Korea, led by that Gift from God, Kim Jong-un, is the only major
communist economy left.
There's a very simple mathematical proof that socialism and communism
will always fail, except for very small populations. If you have a
fiefdom of a few hundred people, then you can have the Lord and maybe
an assistant or two set prices and make sure that all transactions
follow the rules. But as the population increases exponentially, then
the number of transactions increases at a much faster exponential
rate, so that after a while the number of bureaucrats enforcing the
regulations is almost the entire population.
That's why the economies of all the communist countries were stuck in
the 1950s before their version of communism collapsed. In Cuba, there
are nostalgic stories about all those 1950s cars that everyone drives,
but we can expect those to disappear pretty quickly now. Whether you
like it or not, after a while every communist economy collapses, and
is replaced by some variations of free markets. Cuban News Agency and VOA
****
**** Pakistan adopts a neutral stance in the Yemen war
****
After several days of debate, Pakistan's parliament has voted a
resolution to reject Saudi Arabia's request for military help in
fighting the Houthis in Yemen. The resolution, which was unanimously
approved, says that Pakistan's role will be as a mediator between
Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan reaffirmed that Pakistan will stand
with Saudi Arabia if its security was threatened, but said that in
this case, the war in Yemen was an internal Yemen affair that did not
threaten Saudi security. Dunya News (Pakistan)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, India, Mumbai, Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi,
Lashkar-e-Taibi, LeT, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, JuD,
Cuba, Raul Castro, Russia, China, North Korea,
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen
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12-Apr-15 World View -- Repercussions start for Pakistan's and Turkey's neutrality
*** 12-Apr-15 World View -- Repercussions start for Pakistan's and Turkey's neutrality in Yemen
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Holy Fire from Jerusalem's Easter celebration arrives in Athens
- Pakistan and Turkey refuse to support Saudi Arabia in Yemen
- Pakistanis fear repercussions from neutrality on Yemen
****
**** Holy Fire from Jerusalem's Easter celebration arrives in Athens
****
The Holy Fire from Jerusalem arrives in Athens on Saturday evening
The Holy Fire that was lit in Jerusalem on Saturday morning arrived in
Athens, Greece, on Saturday evening in time for the midnight Greek
Orthodox celebration of Easter. The fire is lit each year on Easter
Saturday in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem's Old City,
believed to be built on the site where Jesus was crucified, buried and
resurrected. From Jerusalem, the flame is sent to other nations.
The Holy Fire ceremony is possibly the most impressive celebration in
all of Christianity, and is performed each year for Orthodox Easter.
On Saturday morning, Orthodox clergymen break the seal of the door to
Christ's tomb in Jerusalem and descend into the chamber. After a
while, they emerge with lit candles. Believers say that the "Holy
Fire" appears spontaneously from the tomb on the day before Easter to
show Jesus has not forgotten his followers.
The fire is passed from candle to candle, and is flown to Athens and
other cities, so that the Holy Fire can be shared by thousands of
worshippers. In Athens, the ceremony begins at 11 pm on Saturday,
when practically the entire country is in church. At midnight, the
lights are turned off, and everyone's candle is lit with the Holy Fire
from the priest's candle, as the priest says, "Christ has risen from
the dead and in so doing has trampled on death and to those in the
tombs he has given life." Then people head home with their lit
candles, and the entire city is lit by the candles with the Holy Fire.
The ceremony dates back to the fourth century, and possibly as early
as the first century. Greek Reporter and Times of Israel
****
**** Pakistan and Turkey refuse to support Saudi Arabia in Yemen
****
After several days of debate, Pakistan's parliament adopted on Friday
a 12-point unanimous resolution, calling on the government to maintain
neutrality in the Yemen conflict.
The terms of the resolution included the following:
- Pakistan would stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Saudi Arabia in
case of any threat, but in this case the warring factions in Yemen
should resolve their differences through dialogue. (LOL!)- And yet, there was concern that the crisis could plunge the entire
region into turmoil.- Pakistan was grateful to China for helping evacuate Pakistanis
from Yemen.- Muslims and the international community should intensify their
efforts to promote peace in Yemen.- Pakistan should continue to cooperate with other countries to
combat extremism and terrorism.- Urged the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) to bring an end to the Yemen conflict.
One really has to laugh that grown men could put stuff like
this out.
However, this was only an advisory opinion. The final decision
will be taken by Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif, but
he's previously said that any decision would require the backing
of the parliament.
On Saturday, Sharif had a 45-minute phone call with Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although the contents of the phone conversation
were not revealed, it's believed that Turkey's views are similar to
Pakistan's, and they want to "mediate," not fight. Two days after the
Saudi military operation in Yemen began on March 25, Erdogan openly
announced Turkey's support, promising logistical and intelligence
assistance, and harshly criticizing Iran and Shias in general. Then
Erdogan took a couple of trips, first to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's
capital, and then Tehran, Iran's capital. He did a complete U-turn in
less than two weeks, and now says that Turkey is categorically against
sectarian-driven policies in the region. The News (Pakistan) and Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara)
****
**** Pakistanis fear repercussions from neutrality on Yemen
****
Children in Yemen war zone (Reuters)
Saudi Arabia's official position regarding the current neutrality of
Pakistan and Turkey is that it won't affect the military operation in
Yemen, known as "Operation Decisive Storm." According to Saudi
Brigadier General Ahmed Asiri, Pakistan's participation in Operation
Decisive Storm would be an "addition to the coalition."
However, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is harshly condemning Pakistan
and Turkey for their neutral stance. According to Minister of State
for Foreign Affairs Dr Anwar Mohammed Gargash:
<QUOTE>"The Arabian Gulf is in a dangerous confrontation, its
strategic security is on the edge, and the moment of truth
distinguishes between the real ally and the ally of media and
statements. ...
This is nothing but another chapter of laggard impartial stand.
Tehran seems to be more important to Islamabad and Ankara than the
Gulf countries. Though our economic and investment assets are
inevitable, political support is missing at critical moments.
The vague and contradictory stands of Pakistan and Turkey are an
absolute proof that Arab security — from Libya to Yemen — is the
responsibility of none but Arab countries, and the crisis is a
real test for neighbouring countries."<END QUOTE>
Indeed, Pakistani expatriates living in Saudi Arabia are concerned
about repercussions from Pakistan's neutral stance. There are nearly
two million Pakistanis living in Saudi Arabia, and they contribute
$4.73 billion per year to Pakistan through remittances, the highest
ever sum from any single country. Some of these Pakistanis are
expressing fear that they might face discrimination in Saudi Arabia as
a result of Pakistan's stance. Tribune (Pakistan) and Khaleej Times (UAE) and The News (Pakistan)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Holy Fire, Jerusalem, Church of the Holy Sepulchre,
Athens, Greece, Orthodox Easter,
Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Iran, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Operation Decisive Storm,
Anwar Mohammed Gargash, Ahmed Asiri
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ABBA - Cassandra
ABBA - Cassandra
[Verse 1]
Down in the street they're all singing and shouting
Staying alive though the city is dead
Hiding their shame behind hollow laughter
While you are crying alone in your bed
Pity Cassandra that no one believed you
But then again you were lost from the start
Now we must suffer and sell our secrets
Bargain, playing smart, aching in our hearts
[Chorus]
Sorry Cassandra I misunderstood
Now the last day is dawning
Some of us wanted but none of us could
Listen to words of warning
But on the darkest of nights
Nobody knew how to fight
And we were caught in our sleep
Sorry Cassandra I didn't believe
You really had the power
I only saw it as dreams you would weave
Until the final hour
[Verse 2]
So in the morning your ship will be sailing
Now that your father and sister are gone
There is no reason for you to linger
You're grieving deeply but still moving on
You know the future is casting a shadow
No one else sees it but you know your fate
Packing your bags, being slow and thorough
Knowing, though you're late, that ship is sure to wait
[Chorus]
[Verse 3]
I watched the ship leaving harbor at sunrise
Sails almost slack in the cool morning rain
She stood on deck, just a tiny figure
Rigid and restrained, blue eyes filled with pain
Sorry Cassandra I misunderstood
Now the last day is dawning
Some of us wanted but none of us could
Listen to words of warning
But on the darkest of nights
Nobody knew how to fight
And we were caught in our sleep
Sorry Cassandra I didn't believe
You really had the power
I only saw it as dreams you would weave
Until the final hour
[Outro]
I'm sorry Cassandra
I'm sorry Cassandra
13-Apr-15 World View -- Desperate Kenya demands closure of refugee camp after Garissa
*** 13-Apr-15 World View -- Desperate Kenya demands closure of refugee camp after Garissa school attack
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Desperate Kenya demands closure of refugee camp after Garissa school attack
- Pakistan hits back at UAE over Yemen war military support issue
****
**** Desperate Kenya demands closure of refugee camp after Garissa school attack
****
Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, the largest in the world
On April 2, The Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab massacred over 147 people,
mostly Christian
students, at Garissa University College in Kenya. That event,
according to Kenyan officials themselves, has caused a reaction on
Kenya very similar to the effect of the 9/11/2001 attack on America.
Kenya's government has announced two major actions targeting Somalians
in particular.
First, Kenya on Wednesday suspended the licenses of major Somali money
transfer firms in Nairobi, in an effort to curb the financing of
al-Shabaab from remittances sent from Kenya. This suspension has been
bitterly criticized not only by Somalis and but also by aid agencies
that depend on the money transfer firms to transfer money used for
humanitarian and development operations. Somalia is one of the
poorest countries in the world, and millions of people depend on
remittances from their family members who moved to other countries to
find work and send money back. End the remittances will hurt a lot of
people, without increasing security.
Second, on Saturday, Kenya's government demanded that the United
Nations close the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, the largest refugee
camp in the world, with 300,000 to 600,000 people, mostly Somalis, and
move the camp and the residents into Somalia.
According to Deputy President William Ruto:
<QUOTE>"We have asked the UNHCR to relocate the refugees in
three months, failure to which we shall relocate them ourselves.
The way America changed after 9/11 is the way Kenya will change
after Garissa.
Kenya is in an emergency situation... Each country has an
obligation to look after its people first."<END QUOTE>
However, it's doubtful that these measures, even if enacted, will
reduce the risk of terrorist acts against Kenya. Even the idea of
building a 700 km fence along the border separating Kenya from
Somalia, something that's being discussed as a measure of desperation,
would be unlikely to prevent another attack.
The Dadaab camp was established in 1991 to house refugees from
Somalia's civil war. Since then, a whole new generation of children
have grown living in the camp. Since they're not allowed to leave the
camp, they can't get an education or a job. So the Dadaab camp has
become a fertile ground for recruitment by al-Shabaab, and also a
place to hide out in preparation for an attack on a Kenyan target.
The investigations following the Garissa school attack confirmed that
that's happening.
Ironically, there's little evidence that the Garissa attack has
increased xenophobic feelings between Muslims and Christians in Kenya.
However, these acts directed at ordinary Somalian people are certain
to increase mutual xenophobia between Kenyans and Somalis, creating a
situation that may lead eventually to war. AFP and Al-Jazeera and The Nairobian and Clapway
****
**** Pakistan hits back at UAE over Yemen war military support issue
****
Tensions are increasing between United Arab Emirates (UAE) and
Pakistan over the latter's apparent refusal to provide military help
in Operation Decisive Storm, the Saudi Arabia-led military action
against the Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman at the end of March made a formal request
of Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif to provide military help.
After days of debate, Pakistan's parliament voted unanimously to
reject the request help the warring factions in Yemen to resolve their
differences through dialogue.
UAE's foreign affairs minister Anwar Mohammed Gargash angrily that
"The vague and contradictory stands ... are an absolute proof that
Arab security — from Libya to Yemen — is the responsibility of none
but Arab countries." ( "12-Apr-15 World View -- Repercussions start for Pakistan's and Turkey's neutrality in Yemen"
)
On Sunday, Pakistan hit back at the UAE.
Pakistan’s interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan accused UAE of
"hurling threats":
<QUOTE>"This is not only ironic but a thought-provoking
moment that a minister of UAE is hurling threats at Pakistan. The
statement of the UAE minister is in stark violation of all
diplomatic norms prevalent according to the principals of
international relations.
Pakistan is an honored nation and has brotherly emotions for the
people of UAE along with Saudi Arabia, but this statement of an
Emirati minister is equal to an offense against the ego of
Pakistan and its people and is unacceptable.<END QUOTE>
This is a very interesting statement because it's like a husband
asking his wife if she's having an affair, and in response she
screams, "You don't love me any more."
Khan's statement expresses how deeply hurt Pakistan is to hear such a
thing from the "brotherly" people of UAE, but it doesn't respond to
UAE's criticism that Pakistan is willing to accept all kinds of help
and support from Saudi Arabia, but when the Arab security is at stake,
the Arabs are on their own.
An editorial appearing in a leading UAE newspaper lists many of the
ways that Pakistan has benefited by aid from UAE's Pakistan Assistance
Program (PAP) which build roads, bridges, 64 water treatment and
purification plans, schools, colleges, vocational training institutes,
hospitals, clinic and medical institutes.
The editorial says that Pakistan’s refusal to join the Saudi-led
operations in Yemen could have serious consequences for its relations
with the UAE. Furthermore:
<QUOTE>"Pakistan’s decision, if it was made final, not only
compromises the security of long-standing allies and friends, but
also could undermine its own stability. The success of the
operation in Yemen will not only remove the Houthi threat, but
will also aim to destroy Al Qaeda’s stronghold there, which would
have consequences far beyond the Arabian peninsula.
It might also lead to a situation of mistrust between old friends,
Pakistan and the GCC countries, that have co-operated for decades
on military and security issues."<END QUOTE>
This is a very interesting situation because you can see the clash of
two opposing themes in many countries of the world:
On the one hand, whether it's Barack Obama in Syria, Angela Merkel in
Ukraine, or Pakistan and Turkey in Yemen, there's a fear of "getting
involved," and a willingness to appease rather than confront, as in
the legendary case of Britain's Neville Chamberlain and Nazi Germany.
On the other hand, there are very strong nationalistic and xenophobic
feelings being exhibited in other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and
UAE in Yemen, China in the South China Sea, and Russia in Ukraine.
In the end, choosing between appeasement and war is a "Hobson's
choice," because in a generational Crisis era, appeasement is not an
choice that's available for long. Appeasement in this era appears as
weakness, and only encourages further nationalism and belligerence on
the part of the countries not practicing appeasement.
In the case of Pakistan, the choice is between a continuing major
political embarrassment with UAE and Saudi Arabia, versus military
involvement in Yemen. If the best that the Pakistanis can do in
response to the request is to whine about "an offense against the ego
of Pakistan and its people," then the political choice is not going to
be available for long. AFP and The National (UAE)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Somalia, Dadaab refugee camp,
Garissa University College, William Ruto, al-Shabaab,
Pakistan, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Yemen, Saudi Arabia,
Operation Decisive Storm, Houthis, Anwar Mohammed Gargash,
Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
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14-Apr-15 World View -- Gaza and Israel prepare for war with each other
*** 14-Apr-15 World View -- Gaza and Israel prepare for war with each other
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Gaza prepares for all-out war with Israel
- Iran and Qatar give Hamas money and weapons to fight Israel
- Israel prepares for war with Hamas in Gaza
- Greece denies reports that it's preparing for a default
****
**** Gaza prepares for all-out war with Israel
****
Hamas tunnel (Memri)
While Hamas, the governing group in Gaza, are taking care not to slide
into a military escalation against Israel at this time, officials are
boasting that workers are working day and night to manufacture rockets
and other weapons, and to excavate new tunnels for concealing rocket
launchers and mortars, as well as new tunnels for strategic attacks
within Israel itself.
Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, are recruiting as many
teens as possible so they could acquire military skills, train with
live ammunition, and practice civil defense and first aid.
According to a Hamas spokesman:
<QUOTE>"The history of Hamas and its fighting brigades sets
before us a glorious and honorable picture of preparing and
producing weapons and excavating through rock to resist the
occupier and cause it pain. Today, after many years, this picture
has produced the Al-Qassam Army, as you and the world see, with
its fighting units that participate today in this impressive
display: artillery units, marine units, the elite unit, the tunnel
unit, the sniper unit, the armored unit, the infantry unit, and
the aerial defense unit. These are not [mere] names and nicknames
– they are fighting units that subdued the enemy on Gaza's
doorstep, broke its arrogant pretense, and humiliated their
opponents on the land, in the sea, and in the air, with the grace
of Allah the Almighty."<END QUOTE>
Memri
and BBC
****
**** Iran and Qatar give Hamas money and weapons to fight Israel
****
Three years ago, the massive slaughter of Palestinians and
innocent Sunni protesters by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
caused a split between Syria and Hamas, which moved its headquarters
from Damascus to Doha, Qatar, and a resulting split between
Hamas and Iran.
However, Hamas and Iran are putting aside their differences, and now
Iran is once again sending the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing
of Hamas, tens of millions of dollars to fund rebuilding its network
of tunnels and the manufacturing of new rockets and other weapons.
The amount of aid is not as great as provided by Qatar, but is
significant.
Israel and Qatar do not officially have diplomatic
relations, but Israel is cooperating with Qatar's plan to
rebuild 1,000 homes that were destroyed in last summer's Gaza
war, as part of a $1 billion aid pledge.
An unnamed official in the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is the
governing group in the West Bank and is the nominal head of the
"unified" Palestinian government, says that the agreement between
Qatar and Israel threatens to marginalize PA:
<QUOTE>"The PA fears the political implications hidden in the
trenches of the Qatari initiatives and Qatar’s direct
communication with Israel, particularly in terms of the proposed
long-term bilateral truce between Hamas and Israel and the
establishment of an airport and a seaport in Gaza.
Qatari involvement regarding a bilateral truce between Hamas and
Israel means stepping around the PA’s role, leadership and
position and ignoring Egypt's sponsorship of the Palestinian issue
with Israel. [It would result in] the separation of Gaza from the
West Bank, the establishment of a separate entity in Gaza with
Qatari funding, the marginalization of the powers of the PA and
government in the Gaza Strip and the preservation of Hamas’
control on the ground and over the crossings."<END QUOTE>
This illustrates one of the many reasons why there can never be a
successful Palestinian state: Hamas and the Palestinian Authority
simply don't get along. Telegraph (London) and Al Monitor and Ynet
****
**** Israel prepares for war with Hamas in Gaza
****
Israel is of course aware of Hamas's activities in Gaza
to build tunnels and manufacture rockets and other weapons,
and is applying lessons learned from last summer's Gaza war.
Israel is tripling the size of the "Samur" unit, which is
designed to fight tunnel warfare. It's been receiving training
in destroying weapons hideouts and tunnels.
According to Israeli army General Sami Turgeman made mistakes
during last summer's Gaza war by not evacuating Israelis living
in homes near the Gaza border:
<QUOTE>"I think most of us went into this mistakenly thinking
that evacuating residents of the border towns would have been a
victory for Hamas."<END QUOTE>
He said that Israel's military could have been more effective if
civilians in border towns had been evacuated, as the army could then
have concentrated on the enemy without having to worry about
protecting civilians. Jerusalem Post and Israel National News
****
**** Greece denies reports that it's preparing for a default
****
Greece denied on Monday a report by the Financial Times that it was
preparing for a debt default if it did not reach a deal with its
creditors by the end of the month and said the negotiations were
proceeding "swiftly" towards a solution.
A senior EU official said that the conflicting messages from Athens
"reflect the divergence of views within the current Greek government
rather than an agreed negotiation position and tactics." Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Al-Qassam Brigades,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Qatar, Palestinian Authority,
Samur unit, Sami Turgeman, Greece
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Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 04-14-2015 at 12:12 PM.
