*** 15-Apr-15 World View -- U.S.-China diplomacy over South China Sea turns vitriolic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S.-China diplomacy over South China Sea turns vitriolic
• 400 die as illegal migrants flood into Italy from Libya
• Illegal immigration from Mexico down sharply, but not for lack of trying

****
**** U.S.-China diplomacy over South China Sea turns vitriolic
****


One of China's planned artificial islands in the South China Sea

China is responding furiously to remarks by president Barack
Obama that China has been using its "sheer size and
muscle" to bully the Philippines and Vietnam in the South
China Sea:

<QUOTE>"We think this can be solved diplomatically, but just
because the Philippines or Vietnam are not as large as China
doesn't mean that they can just be elbowed aside."<END QUOTE>

China's Foreign Ministry called this "mind-boggling hypocrisy" by
Obama, because "everybody can see who has the biggest size and muscle
in the world."

This is a sure sign that the Chinese are lying, because nobody is
accusing China of bullying the U.S. The accusation is that China is
bully the Philippines and Vietnam, an accusation that is sufficiently
embarrassing to China that they chose to cover up their embarrassment
by accusing the US of hypocrisy.

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose. Instead, China is
becoming increasingly belligerent militarily, annexing other nations'
territories, and militarizing the entire sea.

In the latest developments, China has been building artificial islands
in the South China Sea, in order to attack the Philippines, Vietnam,
and other neighboring countries more quickly and violently. US
Admiral Harry Harris, soon to take charge of the Pacific Command, told
an Australian audience on March 31 that China was rapidly building "a
Great Wall" of artificial islands in the South China Sea, totaling
"roughly the size of Canberra's Black Mountain Nature Reserve." He
said:

<QUOTE>"China is creating a great wall of sand with dredges
and bulldozers over the course of months.

When one looks at China's pattern of provocative actions towards
smaller claimant states, the lack of clarity on its sweeping
nine-dash line claim that is inconsistent with international law,
and the deep asymmetry between China's capabilities and those of
its smaller neighbors – well, it's no surprise that the scope and
pace of building man-made islands raises serious questions about
Chinese intentions."<END QUOTE>

According to a statement in Chinese state media:

<QUOTE>"As a matter of fact, Washington has long been
adopting double standards on this issue, as it chooses to totally
ignore the building work by other countries on islands owned by
China, while showing "concerns" over China's activities on islands
and reefs over which it has indisputable sovereignty.

China has reiterated its adherence to the path of peaceful
development and a defensive national defense policy, stressing
that the construction work is 'not targeted against any
country.'"<END QUOTE>

No other country in the region is building artificial reefs for
military purposes, or indeed has the resources to do so. Not only
does China not have "indisputable sovereignty," their sovereignty is
challenged by almost everyone outside of China. The United Nations
has courts to resolve issues like this, but China is scared and
frightened of using those courts because they know they would lose.

This increasingly vitriolic exchange of words is a major escalation
in the situation, and a miscalculation by any party could trigger
a military confrontation or a wider war.

China has been rapidly building its military for years with a variety
of weapons and missile systems that have no other purpose than to
preemptively strike American aircraft carriers, American military
bases, and American cities. Generational Dynamics predicts that China
is preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack
on the United States. There is no guarantee that the United States
will survive the subsequent world war. China Daily and Reuters and Sydney Morning Herald and The Diplomat

****
**** 400 die as illegal migrants flood into Italy from Libya
****

A boat packed with 550 migrants, traveling from Libya to Italy on
Tuesday, capsized, resulting in 400 deaths, many of them children.
The 150 survivors were rescued and brought to a southern Italian port
on Tuesday. This adds to the 500 previous migrant deaths so far this
year, up from a total of 47 in the same time frame last year.

An enormous 280,000 migrants entered the EU illegally last year, and
that number is surging sharply higher this year. In the waters off
Sicily, as many as 8,480 migrants were rescued from the Mediterranean
Sea in the four days from Friday to Monday. They were rescued by
boats from the Italian Coast Guard, assisted by the European Union's
Frontex border control boats, several commercial tugboats, and an
Icelandic patrol boat. Aircraft and helicopters operated by the Coast
Guard were brought in to help.

In one incident, the Icelandic vessel Tyr, was already carrying 342
migrants from an earlier rescue operation, and was called on to help
rescue 250 people aboard a second migrant vessel. After they were
transferred to the rescue vessel, a speedboat approached the rescue
vessel. Those onboard the speedboat fired several shots into the air,
and then sped away with the empty migrant boat. This was the second
time this year when the smugglers took back a smuggling vessel.

According to one official, "This is a sign that smugglers in Libya are
running short of boats and are more willing to use weapons to recover
those used to transport the migrants." Times of Malta and VOA and Independent (Ireland) and Gazzetta Del Sud (Italy)

****
**** Illegal immigration from Mexico down sharply, but not for lack of trying
****

In the first six months of fiscal year 2015 (starting in October
2014), border agents captured 15,647 children traveling without
parents crossing America's southern border illegally. That's down 40%
from the 28,579 apprehended at the same point in fiscal year 2014.
The number of "family units" captured is down 30% from last year.

So the level of illegal immigration is down sharply, but not for lack
of trying by the migrants. The reason is that tens of thousands of
migrants who are trying to escape the violence in Guatemala, El
Salvador and Honduras are being stopped by Mexican police and deported
back to their home countries. In 2014 alone, the United States
provided a military aid package of $112 million to Mexico to help
modernize and make more efficient Mexico’s border policing and
militarization.

US law allows for quick deportation of Mexicans caught illegally
trying to cross the border, and this has deterred a much larger wave
of migrants from Mexico. But children coming from Central American
countries are transferred to social workers at the Health and Human
Services Department, which holds them until they can be placed with
relatives or foster family sponsors. Some politicians are urging that
the law be changed so that Central American migrant children are also
quickly deported, but others are resisting this because of the level
of violence in Central American countries. International Business Times and Washington Times and Al Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Philippines, Vietnam,
Harry Harris, Australia,
Libya, Italy, Iceland, Frontex,
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras

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*** 16-Apr-15 World View -- Saudis to Hezbollah: Yemen is none of your business

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudis to Hezbollah: Yemen is none of your business
• United Nations is 'deeply shocked' at Europe's failure to save migrants

****
**** Saudis to Hezbollah: Yemen is none of your business
****


Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah giving televised speech in January

As the conflicts in Syria and Yemen increase the bitterness between
the two countries Iran and Saudi Arabia, the conflicts are also
increasing the bitterness in Lebanon between the two factions allied
with these countries, Hezbollah and the Future Movement, respectively.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, said late
last month:

<QUOTE>"The real reason the Saudi-led coalition is [attacking
Yemen] is that Saudi Arabia has failed. It has lost control over
Yemen... and fears that Yemen now belongs to the people. The goal
of the coalition is for Saudi Arabia to regain control over
Yemen."<END QUOTE>

Ali Awad Asiri, the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon, said that Nasrallah
"aimed to distort facts and mislead public opinion":

<QUOTE>"The speech made by Hezbollah’s General Secretary
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah expressed the confusion experienced by the
sides he represents [Iran], and contained a lot of slander and
false allegations against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. ...

The same side [Iran] supporting Sayyed Nasrallah and directing the
Houthis does not want good for Yemen and has been behind
obstructing all agreements and pushing the security situation in
the country toward escalation and deterioration.

We wish some sides would emulate the wisdom of the kingdom’s
leaders."<END QUOTE>

Lebanon has been unable to elect a president for months because
of the differences between the two major political factions,
Hezbollah, which is linked to Iran, and Future Movement, which
is linked to Saudi Arabia.

Hezbollah and Future Movement have tried to maintain a dialog, and
senior officials from both groups met on Tuesday in a round of talks
to calm tensions. At the end of the session, they released a
statement saying that the two parties discussed "continuing security
measures in all Lebanese areas in order to immunize the domestic
scene."

By Wednesday it was pretty apparent that, if anything, the meeting had
made things worse. On Wednesday, Hezbollah issued a statement saying
that Iran cannot be compared to the "backward, ignorant and murderous"
Saudi regime, and that Future Movement was supporting "genocide":

<QUOTE>"Future Movement leaders and officials, over the past
few years, have waged violent attacks against the Islamic Republic
of Iran, unleashing a spate of false accusations and unfounded
slander, in the service of foreign and Arab agendas. ...

The backward, ignorant, murderous regime that exports terrorists,
extremists and aberrant radical ideas... cannot be fairly compared
to the Islamic Republic of Iran."<END QUOTE>

That statement came after Asiri, the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon,
told Hezbollah to mind their own business:

<QUOTE>"First of all, I have the right to respond to issues
concerning my country and its leaders, especially when you listen
to a language that has gone beyond the limits of reasoning.

Secondly, I do not see that Yemen is Hezbollah’s business.
Hezbollah is in Lebanon, not in Yemen, which has its statesmen and
privacy.

I see that Hezbollah’s intervention in Yemen and its support for
the Houthis as reported by the media, and the usage of
[Hezbollah’s] media in the ongoing war in Yemen, is
unacceptable."<END QUOTE>

Nasrallah has called for major street protests in Lebanon in Beirut's
southern suburbs on Friday (17-Apr). Daily Star (Lebanon, 29-Mar) and Mideast Confidential and Daily Star (15-Apr) and Daily Star (15-Apr)

****
**** United Nations is 'deeply shocked' at Europe's failure to save migrants
****

The day after 400 migrants drowned when their boat traveling from
Libya to Italy capsized, Antonio Guterres, the UN High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR) expressed shock at Europe's poor search and
rescue program:

<QUOTE>"I was deeply shocked when hearing the news that
another boat, an overcrowded boat capsized in the Mediterranean
and where 400 people died. This only demonstrates how important it
is to have a robust rescue-at-sea mechanism, in the central
Mediterranean.

Unfortunately Mare Nostrum was never replaced by an equivalent
capacity to rescue people, and at the same time the legal avenues
for those who need protection to be able to come
Europe."<END QUOTE>

Mare Nostrum ("Our Sea") refers to the program set up by Italy in
October 2013, when hundreds of migrants lost their lives in the
Mediterranean attempting to reach Italy. For over a year, Italy ran a
search and rescue program called "Mare Nostrum" ("Our Sea") that saved
the lives of thousands of migrants attempting to travel from Libya to
Italy. This program required Italian naval vessels near the Libyan
coast. Italy demanded that all of EU share the burden of saving
migrants' lives, and in November of last year, the program ended and
an EU program called Triton replaced it. But Triton restricts its
operations to only 30 miles off the Italian coast. Triton has been
considered unsatisfactory because many more migrants are drowning, and
the loss of 400 lives earlier this week may be the death knell for
Triton in its current form.

However, there's a great deal of opposition to a full-scale
search and rescue program, especially in Britain, arguing that
such a program simply encourages more migrants to take the trip,
since they can be fairly certain of being rescued if there's
a problem.

This opposition received a boost this week from an interview
with Graham Leese, who is a special advisor to the EU program
that oversees Triton:

<QUOTE>"My understanding is that the facilitators [migrant
traffickers] are often phoning up the Italian authorities in
advance and saying that boats are on their way. They are not
putting as much fuel in the boats as they usually do because they
expect them to be picked up.

A lot of the migrants are interviewed afterwards, and this is
what they say, and my professional contacts also say it. We have
started to hear about it since Mare Nostrum was launched, when
those on the Libyan side became aware that there were more boats
being deployed to rescue people."<END QUOTE>

So the traffickers charge each migrant several thousand dollars, often
a lifetime savings, to be put on a boat that is sure to sink, except
that the traffickers then call Italian authorities, who send their own
boats out to rescue the migrants. One wonders why the Italians can't
just pick up the migrants from Libya directly, and pocket the thousand
dollar fee themselves.

The Mediterranean is the most dangerous of the four main
sea routes used in the world by migrants and refugees. The
four routes are:

• Mediterranean Sea
• The Bahamas and the Caribbean
• The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden
• The Bay of Bengal

With regard to the Mediterranean, UNHCR commissioner Guterres says:

<QUOTE>"I am here in Lebanon and we know that Syrians are
more and more risking their lives to have access to European
territories. But for all those in need of protection it is very
important to increase the number of resettlement opportunities,
humanitarian admission opportunities, to have a more flexible visa
policy, to have enhanced family reunification programs, and again
I repeat to have an effective mechanism to rescue people at sea in
the central Mediterranean."<END QUOTE>

Ansa Med (Italy) and Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah,
Syria, Yemen, Future Movement, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ali Awad Asiri,
Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR,
Mare Nostrum, Triton, Italy, Graham Leese

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*** 17-Apr-15 World View -- South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of immigrants flee xenophobic attacks in South Africa
• South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre

****
**** Thousands of immigrants flee xenophobic attacks in South Africa
****


Zulu King Goodwill Zwelithini, whose careless remark is being blamed for triggering the xenophobic violence

Thousands of people, mostly foreigners from Zimbabwe and Malawi, fled
for their lives on Tuesday and Wednesday, after mobs with machetes
attacked them in the city of Durban. Durban is the largest city in
the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which is the heartland of
the Zulu tribe. The anti-immigrant violence has spread to
Johannesburg, raising fears of widespread violence spurred by the
country's dire economic woes.

It's believed that the attacks were triggered by remarks made by Zulu
king Goodwill Zwelithini, who said in a public speech, "We are
requesting those who come from outside to please go back to their
countries." He has since said his comments were misinterpreted.

South Africa, with a population of about 50 million, is home to an
estimated 5 million immigrants, from African countries including
Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and Malawi, and from further afield,
including China and Pakistan. Many own shops or sell wares as informal
hawkers on street corners or in markets.

Although tribal tensions have existed continually in South Africa,
this is the first major return of xenophobic violence since 2008, when
similar xenophobic attacks killed around 60 people. Experts are
blaming on the xenophobic violence on the 25% unemployment rate, and
many believe that this figure is a great understatement. Unemployment
is particularly high among young blacks, around 50%, which provides
fertile ground all kinds of violence, particularly anti-immigrant
violence.

There had been warnings about the coming violence on social media.
One message read:

<QUOTE>"Wednesday, Zulu people are coming to town starting
from Market [Street] their mission is to kill every foreigner on
the road please pass this to all your contacts in case they come
people should be on alert."<END QUOTE>

According to one witness:

<QUOTE>"If you look carefully, we as black people are
attacking one another. I have never witnessed people attacking
whites, or any other race. It is only black people attacking one
another, It is clear that black people do not want to see one
another progressing."<END QUOTE>

Jacob Zuma, the Zulu president of South Africa, called the violence a
"violation" of South Africa's values:

<QUOTE>"No amount of frustration or anger can ever justify
the attacks on foreign nationals and the looting of their shops.
We condemn the violence in the strongest possible terms. The
attacks violate all the values that South Africa
embodies."<END QUOTE>

Thousands of people marched in a peace rally through Durban, chanting
"Down with xenophobia!" and "A United Africa." However, the march
ended in violence, with police using rubber bullets, tear gas and
water cannon to disperse the crowds. There was a similar reaction to
a peace march in Johannesburg. Reuters and AFP and CNN and CS Monitor and Euro News

****
**** South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre
****

Zimbabwe's 91-year-old president Robert Mugabe is being criticized for
his silence about South Africa's xenophobic attacks on foreigners,
including Zimbabweans. In particular, he's refusing to help these
Zimbabweans return to Zimbabwe, for fear that they'll be his political
enemies. This comes at a time when Malawi is launching a program to
hire six buses to ferry people who voluntarily want to be repatriated
to Malawi.

Xenophobic violence in South Africa has deep roots, going back at
least two centuries. See my generational history of South Africa in
my my 2008 article on the xenophobic attacks of that time.

There's a good reason for Mugabe's silence, and his reluctance to
bring his own citizens back to Zimbabwe: He's pleased that Zimbabweans
in South Africa are being killed, so he doesn't have to have them
killed in Zimbabwe.

I've written many times about Syria's president Bashar al-Assad being
a genocidal monster, but al-Assad is a pussycat compared to Mugabe.
Mugabe is a member of the Shona tribe, and in his 35+ years of rule,
he's repeatedly massacred thousands of people in the other major tribe
in Zimbabwe, the Ndebele tribe.

During the 1820s, the Zulu tribe went from obscurity to world renown
thanks to one leader, Shaka, and the extremely bloody and brutal war
of extermination he led against other tribes in that region. This war
was called Mfecane ("the crushing"), and it climaxed in 1828.

Shaka targeted the nearby Xhosa tribe, but many of those crushed by
the Zulus in the Mfecane were from the Ndebele tribe, and those who
survived were driven into what is now Zimbabwe where they, in turn,
massacred the members of the local Shona tribe.

That was almost 200 years ago, but all those old tribal feuds are
being revived today.

Mugabe, from the Shona tribe, came to power in 1979. Within a few
years, Mugabe sent his army on a "pacification campaign" directed at
his Ndebele opponents, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths in
1983 and 1984. The "pacification campaign" was accomplished with the
help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, and was called
"Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before
the spring rain). Mugabe maintained control since then through
torture and jailing of political opponents, mostly from the Ndebele
tribe.

Since then, many in the Ndebele tribe in Zimbabwe have been fleeing to
the "rainbow nation," South Africa, to escape Mugabe's carnage. But
in 2008, there were numerous xenophobic attacks against foreigners,
including the Ndebele, and today there's a new round of these
xenophobic attacks. Many of the targets of these xenophobic attacks
are members of the Ndebele tribe, which Mugabe would like to
exterminate anyway. So for him, the xenophobic attacks in South
Africa are a GOOD thing, as Martha Stewart would say.

During World War II, different political factions wished to side with
the British or with the Germans, or stay neutral. But since South
Africa was part of the British empire, it fought on the side of the
Allies. South Africa's fighting troops were all whites, but blacks
served in non-fighting roles like drivers and guard duties.

Now South Africa is once again in a generational Crisis era and, once
again, all the old vicious violence from the Mfecane and its aftermath
are coming back. South Africa is headed for a new bloody civil war --
not between whites and blacks, but between Zulus and their allies
versus Ndebele and Xhosa and their allies. News24 (South Africa) and Malawi News Agency
and Zimbabwe Eye


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi,
Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, Johannesburg, Zulus, Goodwill Zwelithini,
Jacob Zuma, Robert Mugabe, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ndebele,
Xhosa, Mfecane, Operation Gukurahundi, North Korea, Johannesburg

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Oh, I'm sure the coming civil war in South Africa will hammer whites, Coloureds, and Indians as well. I expect Julius Malema and his ilk to play a large role in getting things started, and several new nations to emerge from ruins.

*** 18-Apr-15 World View -- Russia's Chechnya becomes biggest contributor of jihadists to ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Chechnya becomes biggest contributor of jihadists to ISIS
• Chechen youth from Georgia's Pansiki Gorge joining ISIS in droves

****
**** Russia's Chechnya becomes biggest contributor of jihadists to ISIS
****


Umar al-Shishani (center), ISIS's military emir in Syria, is a Kist Chechen from Georgia's Pankisi Gorge (RFERL)

For years I've been writing about the very stupid policy of Russia's
president Vladimir Putin in sending money and heavy weapons to Syria
in support of president Bashar al-Assad's genocidal attack on innocent
Sunni women and children. By 2012, reports made it evident that young
Sunni men from around the world were traveling to Syria to fight
al-Assad, and this included young men from the North Caucasus
(Russia's southern provinces). I wrote repeatedly that those young
men were going to get terrorism training and return to their home
countries, in this case Russia.

Since then, those predictions have been coming true with a vengeance.
We've seen al-Assad's genocidal acts, supported by troops and weapons
from Russia, bring about the creation of several jihadist groups, most
recently the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Although countries around the world have supplied young jihadists to
ISIS, the biggest non-Mideast contributors are not America or European
countries. The biggest contributor is Russia. The number of Russian
nationals fighting with ISIS has roughly doubled over the past year.
Russia's own Federal Security Service (FSB) estimates that 1,700
militants from Russia have joined ISIS, but that figure seems too low
to be plausible. Other estimates range from 3,000 to 5,000.

Many of these are runaway teen Chechens who grew up during Russia's
wars in Chechnya during the 1990s, saw their relatives and friends
killed by the Russian military, and are now seeking an opportunity for
revenge. In fact, the Chechnya separatist movement had been waning in
influence since the early 2000s, but is rapidly gaining strength again
because of the success and glory of ISIS. Now the insurgents from
Chechnya and other Caucasian nations have a new opportunity to train
and operate with impunity – an opportunity they certainly did not have
back home in the Caucasus.

This is all the result of a very stupid policy by Vladimir Putin in
supplying weapons to the sociopathic Bashar al-Assad to slaughter
innocent Sunnis. Going further, I suppose that if Jonathan Gruber can
refer to the "stupidity of the American people" who supported
Obamacare, then we can refer to the stupidity of the Russian people
who are supporting Putin, who is shaping up to be a total disaster for
the Russian people. Jamestown and Bloomberg and RFE/RL and Geopolitical Monitor (Sep 2014)

****
**** Chechen youth from Georgia's Pansiki Gorge joining ISIS in droves
****

Emotions ran high in the Chechen community when it was learned earlier
this month that two school children, aged 16 and 18, had run away from
their home in Georgia's Pansiki Gorge and had managed to go through
airport controls in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital city, to leave for
Turkey, after which they are presumed to have crossed into Syria to
join the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Angry parents
and community elders in Pansiki are demanding an explanation from
Georgian authorities how it was possible for minors to board a plane
to Turkey unchallenged. Other reports indicate that six people had
left Pansiki to join ISIS in Syria between April 6-14.

Georgia's Pansiki Gorge lies on the border with Russia, on the border
of the province of Chechnya in Russia, and is populated mostly by
Kists, who are ethnic Chechens. Because it's in a difficult to reach
geographical location, Georgian authorities have done little to
provide security to Pansiki, with the result that it's become
practically a free portal for local young radicals and militants to go
to Syria or Iraq and join ISIS, and then return. ISIS and its Chechen
squadrons have already declared war on Russia and promised to
"liberate" the Caucasus.

The Gorge has become a matter of great concern to both Georgia and
Russia. It's economically very poor, making it a prime pool for ISIS
recruiters to gain adherents.

Georgia's response to these concerns is to pass a new law making it
illegal to join or receive training in illegal armed groups in George
and abroad, or to recruit others to do so. Passing a law gives the
appearance of government action, but many analysts believe that just
passing a law will make little difference. (Isn't it already illegal
to join illegal armed groups, or to recruit others to do so?)

According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"In Pankisi's case, the valley's crushing poverty and
the international demand for Chechen fighters [in Syria, Ukraine,
as well as in many other theaters] make for a noxious mix that is
difficult to disrupt via legislation."<END QUOTE>

Al Arabiya and RFE/RL and Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Chechnya, Umar al-Shishani,
Vladimir Putin, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Georgia, Pansiki Gorge, Turkey

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*** 19-Apr-15 World View -- ISIS terror in Afghanistan highlights government chaos

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS claims responsibility of major terrorist attack in east Afghanistan
• Afghanistan becomes more ungovernable as US-led coalition withdraws
• Greece scrapes the bottom of the barrel as bankruptcy talk increases

****
**** ISIS claims responsibility of major terrorist attack in east Afghanistan
****


Site where a suicide bomber on a motorbike blew himself up in front of the Kabul Bank in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, on Saturday (CNN)

A suicide bomber on a motorbike blew himself up in front of the Kabul
Bank in Jalalabad in Afghanistan early Saturday. Jalalabad is near
the Pakistan border, east of the capital city Kabul. 33 people were
killed, and hundreds injured.

"ISIS Wilayat Khorasan," a terrorist group that has pledged allegiance
to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed
responsibility for the act. ISIS refers to "Khorasan" as a province
the Islamic State consisting of the existing countries Afghanistan and
Pakistan. ISIS has been recruiting heavily in the region, and
concerns are rising that ISIS is gaining a foothold in the region.

In the past, ISIS groups in Afghanistan turned out to be former
Taliban groups who were disillusioned with Ayman al-Zawahiri and the
other old geezers running al-Qaeda, and were super turned-on by the
young, sexy Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the terrorist running ISIS. Whether
or not this is true of the "ISIS Wilayat Khorasan," terrorists in the
Jalalabad bombing, a Taliban spokesman sent a text message to
reporters, "The explosion in Jalalabad doesn't have anything to do
with us and we condemn it."

There was another terrorist attack on Saturday, in a nearby town in
Nangarhar province. A magnetic bomb was attached to a parked car and
then detonated by remote control, killing one person and wounding two
others. CNN and
and RAWA (Afghanistan)

****
**** Afghanistan becomes more ungovernable as US-led coalition withdraws
****

This new terrorist attacks come as the United Nations says that in the
first three months of this year, 655 people were killed and 1,155 were
wounded in suicide attacks throughout the country. Concerns are
rising that Afghanistan is becoming ungovernable as the United States
coalition withdraws its forces.

Everything seems to be going wrong. The economy is bad, and getting
worse as the US-led coalition withdraws.

The government was supposed to be holding "peace talks" with the
Taliban in March, but that deadline is now in the past.

President Ashraf Ghani had promised to improve relations with
Pakistan, and work with Pakistan to affect that terrorism affecting
both countries. But so far little has come of the promised
rapprochement between the two countries, and indeed, given the history
of the two countries, it's doubtful there will be.

There was a national election last year with results that were so
disputed, there was no way to determine with certainty which of the
two candidates won. So under tremendous pressure from the United
States, they formed a sort of co-presidency. Ashraf Ghani was made
President and Abdullah Abdullah was made Chief Executive. There have
been incessant squabbles and rumors of rifts, and a full cabinet has
still not been formed, although several nominees received approval on
Saturday after months of delays. However, many analysts believe that
the unity government will collapse before long, with warlords and
militiamen growing in confidence and acting with impunity. The National (UAE) and Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Greece scrapes the bottom of the barrel as bankruptcy talk increases
****

Alexis Tsipras, the far-left prime minister of Greece, had been hopin'
and prayin' that Greece's three creditor institutions -- the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (ECB), the
European Central Bank (ECB), formerly known by the now-banned word
"troika" -- would cancel a debt repayment or at least delay it for a
while. As you already know, Dear Reader, this is what we call
"kicking the can down the road."

But IMF chief Christine Lagarde firmly rejected that hope this week:

<QUOTE>We never had an advanced economy actually asking for
that kind of thing, delayed payment. And I very much hope that
this is not the case with Greece. I would certainly, for myself,
not support it."<END QUOTE>

ECB president Mario Draghi was vague, but seemed to be saying that the
Europe and the euro could survive a Greek bankruptcy, which would mean
leaving the euro currency and returning to the old drachma currency:

<QUOTE>"The short-term danger of contagion [from a Greek
exit] is difficult to assess, but we have enough buffers in
place. And even though they were designed for different
circumstances, they are sufficient. But we are entering uncharted
waters."<END QUOTE>

By "contagion," he means that if Greece leaves, then other troubled
economies, such as Portugal and Italy, may also have to leave. He's
saying that he thinks he's got this covered.

Whether Lagarde's statement is really a firm decision, or just a
negotiating stance, remains to be seen, but there's little doubt that
Greece is really on the edge of the cliff, about to fall over.

Greece will need to tap from all of its remaining cash reserves, about
2 billion euros, in order to pay salaries and pensions of public
sector workers by the end of April. That will leave Greece with no
more reserves to pay 1 billion euros due to the IMF in the first half
of May, with other payments due following quickly after.

In February, the three institutions gave Tsipras a four-month
reprieve, on condition that he come up with a list of reforms to
explain how it's going to meet the existing terms of its bailout
agreement. The list of reforms would have to address a number of
economic issues, including the bloated public sector, curbing tax
evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting
generous pension and minimum wage policies.

Now, two months have passed. Tsipras and his garrulous finance
minister Yanis Varoufakis keep talking evasively, and saying that the
list of reforms is just a day or two away, but it never shows up, and
people are beginning to think that he's always going to keep talking
about reforms but is never going to actually implement any reforms.

So we have Tsipras and the three institutions playing a game of
Chicken. In the 1950s, the game of chicken was played with two cars
racing at full speed toward each other until one car turned away,
making the other car the winner. But, as everyone knows, sometimes
neither car turned away, with explosive results. Irish Times and Reuters and Forbes and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Jalalabad, Pakistan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
ISIS Wilayat Khorasan, al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, Alexis Tsipras, Chicken,
Troika, European Commission, European Central Bank, Yanis Varoufakis,
International Monetary Fund, Greece, Christine Lagarde, Mario Draghi

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*** 20-Apr-15 World View -- Europe considers military action in Libya as migrant drownings accelerate

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Migrants overwhelm Europe as Mediterranean drownings accelerate
• Europe desperately considers military action in Libya

****
**** Migrants overwhelm Europe as Mediterranean drownings accelerate
****


Migrants queue at phone booth on the Island of Lampedusa, Southern Italy, on Thursday (AP)

It seems that every three or four days there's a new catastrophe in
the Mediterranean Sea, involving migrants traveling by boat
from Libya to Italy. On Tuesday, 400 migrants drowned when
their boat capsized. On Thursday, 41 more drowned after
a shipwreck. And late on Saturday, 700 people may have drowned
when a small fishing boat capsized 60 miles south of the Italian
island of Lampedusa.

The reason that these numbers are known is because in each of the
three cases, there were survivors who could describe what happened.
It's suspected that there are other shipwrecks where everyone drowns,
and so there may be hundreds more unrecorded drownings. There
were about 500 drownings in the first three months of the
year, and if the above figures are true, then there have been
about 1,100 drownings in the month of April alone.

In October 2013, 400 migrants drowned in two shipwrecks near Italy
( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in"
).

The drowning of 400 migrants created a political crisis that Italy
resolved by implementing a very aggressive search-and-rescue program
across the Mediterranean that they called "Mare Nostrum" ("Our Sea").
However, Mare Nostrum was extremely expensive, and Italy demanded that
other EU countries contribute.

Last November, Mare Nostrum was replaced with and EU program called
Triton. However, Triton is not a search-and-rescue program. It's a
low-cost border protection program that operates no more than 30 miles
off the Italian coast.

In 2013, fewer than 40,000 migrants per year were making the trip from
Libya to Italy. During 2014, when Mare Nostrum was active, the number
of migrants attempting the trip increased substantially, and has
continued to grow. Currently, over 10,000 migrants attempt the trip
each week, and the number of drownings has increased significantly as
well.

The major controversy in Europe is whether the hyperbolic increase in
the number of migrants was CAUSED by Mare Nostrum, or whether the
increase would have happened anyway. Some people point out that the
number of migrants has been increasing since Mare Nostrum was replaced
by Triton, but this doesn't answer the question, because there's a
time lag for any action to have an effect, especially since many
migrants probably don't know that Triton is different from Mare
Nostrum.

According to an official from Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors
without Borders): "A mass grave is being created in the Mediterranean
and European policies are responsible." Independent (London) and AFP and BBC

****
**** Europe desperately considers military action in Libya
****

European nations are being accused of "closing their eyes" to the
drownings of thousands of migrants. Pope Francis expressed shock at
the new drownings. He's previously said that the Mediterranean Sea
should not turn into a vast migrant graveyard, and on Sunday he said,
"They are men and women like us – our brothers seeking a better life,
starving, persecuted, wounded, exploited, victims of war." He
demanded that Europe "act decisively and quickly to stop these
tragedies from recurring," though the good Pope provided no
suggestion on how that might be accomplished.

However, the desire of other countries to help Italy deal with
the migrant problem is pretty low. There are several reasons:

• Some countries fear that if they contribute to a new
  search-and-rescue program, then it will be interpreted as an open
  invitation for migrants to come to those countries.
  
• Many countries simply don't want to pay for a search-and-rescue
  program, and are perfectly happy letting Italy do the heavy
  lifting.
  
• Some people fear that any search-and-rescue program would increase
  the current flood of migrants into a tsunami that would overwhelm all
  resources.
  
• Anti-immigrant political parties are gaining strength in
  countries across Europe, and it's feared that any politician
  endorsing a massive search-and-rescue program would quickly
  be defeated at the polls.

With regard to the last point, Victoria Ayling is an MP candidate in
the UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party), which is anti-immigrant
and anti-EU. She said that fewer migrants would attempt the dangerous
journey if the UK were not part of the European Union:

<QUOTE>"The simple solution is leave the European Union. The
reason they’re coming over in those boats is because the system
allows it that should they land in any European country, they’re
in the system and they can come over to Britain as if they are EU
migrants and have access to everything.

The Schengen Convention, signed between countries who are part of
the European Union, allows freedom of movement between
participating countries.

It is clearly the system that’s encouraging this to happen,
risking their lives, poor things, and I don’t blame them for doing
this."<END QUOTE>

So, with the flood of migrants from Africa increasing, what can the
Europeans do to "kick the can down the road," so they can pretend to
be doing something while the problem is getting worse, and the
solution being considered is boots on the ground in Libya to target
migrant traffickers.

According to Germany's vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel:

<QUOTE>"All European police and border authorities must make
every possible effort to fight the criminal trafficking gangs who
profit from human misery. We need an international operation
against people smugglers.

We must no longer accept that Europe on its outer borders too
often means death, not humanity."<END QUOTE>

The British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond added: "We must target
the traffickers who are responsible for so many people dying at sea
and prevent their innocent victims from being tricked or forced into
making these perilous journeys."

Malta's foreign minister Dr. George Vella, in a BBC interview (my
transcription) says that military action in Libya is required:

<QUOTE>"I personally think that the most important thing to
do and urgently is to try somehow to control these human
traffickers. This is the most important thing. This is something
that will have to be looked at in detachment from the whole
political problem that is besieging Libya at the moment.

This is not the division that exists in Libya. This is purely
human trafficking, and if there is some way how to get at these
people, whom we will stop from making this massacre of people who
are looking for better opportunities.

I'm thinking more in terms of either a force or coalition of the
willing, or a decision by the United Nations to have boots on the
ground, I would say, specifically to target the human traffickers.
We know where they are leaving from. There are two or three
places along the coast, quite well known, and if that traffic is
stopped, at least we'll see less and less fatalities in the
Mediterranean."<END QUOTE>

It's hard to see how this proposal will have any effect on the
flood of migrants at all. If two or three places on Libya's coast
are blocked, then the traffickers will simply move to a different
spot.

And this does nothing to slow the flood of people from Africa and
the Mideast who have saved up all their money and are arriving
in Libya to purchase a trip to Europe for $1-5,000. The
traffickers want that money, and they'll use any trafficking route
they can find to get it. And the proposal would also do nothing
to reduce the number of drownings.

Still, military action would have the appearance that the European
countries are doing something, in a way that would not help UKIP and
other anti-immigrant political parties. Guardian (London) and AFP and BuzzFeed and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Italy, Mare Nostrum, Triton,
Lampedusa, Pope Francis, UK Independence Party, UKIP,
Victoria Ayling, Sigmar Gabriel, Philip Hammond, George Vella, Libya

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*** 21-Apr-15 World View -- US sends warships to Yemen as Saudis face a quagmire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia appears headed for a quagmire in Yemen
• US escalates conflict by sending warships to Yemen to confront Iran
• ECB examines a possible 'second currency' for Greece - government IOUs

****
**** Saudi Arabia appears headed for a quagmire in Yemen
****


Huge explosion following airstrike on army weapons depot near Sanaa on Monday (Reuters)

A Saudi Arabia airstrike on Monday on a military weapons depot near
Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, caused the most powerful explosion
of the current Saudi air campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi
militias that have overrun much of the country. The explosion was so
powerful that shop fronts were shattered and windows were blown out
four miles away from the explosion.

The Saudis have been conducting a massive air campaign against the
Houthis in Yemen since March 26. Although there's supposed to be a
large coalition of nations participating, in actual practice only
United Arab Emirates (UAE) has joined the Saudis in the airstrikes.
The only other nation participating militarily is Egypt, which is
bombarding Houthi targets from the sea with its Navy. The US military
is helping out with intelligence and air-to-air refueling, and is
sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group to waters off Yemen.

However, the air campaign is receiving a great deal of international
criticisms because hundreds of civilians have been killed, and the
airstrikes have hit hospitals, schools and a refugee camp. The
Houthis have been storing weapons in hospitals, schools and civilian
neighborhoods in order to provoke such attacks, and they're adapting
to the airstrikes by avoiding being caught in large convoys.

Analysts believe that airstrikes alone are unlikely to settle the war
and that sooner or later, a Saudi ground invasion will be required.
And if that happens, analysts say that the Saudis would be involved in
a bloody quagmire.

As we've been reporting,
the
Pakistan government has rejected Saudi Arabia's request for military
help in Yemen. It turns out that this is a bitter shock to the
Saudis, since Saudi Arabia has provided plenty of military aid to
Pakistan over the decades.

Many analysts are predicting that Saudi Arabia will back down and
negotiate a settlement with the Houthis -- which would be an enormous
victory for the Houthis and for their Iranian sponsors. However, from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia is not in the
mood for a compromise. Saudi Arabia's last generational crisis war
was even earlier than World War II -- it occurred in the 1920s between
the Al Sauds tribes and the Wahhabi tribes, when the Al Sauds subdued
the Wahhabi tribesmen, leading to the creation of the country Saudi
Arabia in 1932. So Saudi Arabia is now deep into a generational
crisis era, and the public mood will be sharply opposed to a
compromise with the country's arch-enemy, Iran. Daily Star (Beirut) and Lowy Interpreter (Australia) and AFP

****
**** US escalates conflict by sending warships to Yemen to confront Iran
****


The USS Langley, the US Navy's first aircraft carrier, off the coast of Baltimore in 1924. (CNN)

In an escalation of America's participation in the Yemen war, the USS
Theodore Roosevelt carrier group is being sent to waters off Yemen to
join other American ships prepared to intercept a convoy of Iranian
ships suspected of carrying weapons to Houthi militias in
Yemen. The Iranian convoy consists of freighters, escorted by
warships from the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard forces.

Iran says that Iranian navy ships in the area were there to protect
its ships from piracy.

The US Navy said in a statement: "The purpose of these operations is
to ensure the vital shipping lanes in the region remain open and safe.
The United States remains committed to its regional partners and to
maintaining security in the maritime environment." NBC News and Washington Times and CNN

****
**** ECB examines a possible 'second currency' for Greece - government IOUs
****

We may know more after the Eurogroup of eurozone finance managers
meet in Riga on Thursday (24-Apr), but it now appears likely
that Greece is going to run completely out of money in the next
two or three weeks, and will be unable to make its debt repayments,
and also will be unable to pay its pensions and the salaries
due to public sector employees.

The Europeans are unwilling to release to Greece the next bailout
payment of 7.2 billion euros until the government of Alexis Tsipras
produces its repeatedly delay list of reforms, addressing various
economic issues, including the bloated public sector, curbing tax
evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting
generous pension and minimum wage policies.

So the European Central Bank (ECB) has been studying an alternative
scenario, where the Greek government issues IOUs in lieu of
cash to pay the pensions and public sector salaries at the end
of the month.

However, using the IOUs would have an important drawback: many Greeks
would then have to withdraw their bank savings, causing a bank run
that would put Greece's banking system into further crisis.
Furthermore, the IOUs could not be used to make debt repayments to the
institutions that loaned money to Greece.

Yields on Greek bonds have now skyrocketed to the levels of 2012,
indicating that the markets are increasingly convinced that Greece is
going to go bankrupt, and will be forced to exist the eurozone, and
return to its former drachma currency. Reuters and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Al Sauds, Wahhabis,
USS Theodore Roosevelt,
Greece, European Central Bank, ECB, Alexis Tsipras

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 21-Apr-15 World View -- US sends warships to Yemen as Saudis face a quagmire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia appears headed for a quagmire in Yemen
• US escalates conflict by sending warships to Yemen to confront Iran
• ECB examines a possible 'second currency' for Greece - government IOUs

****
**** Saudi Arabia appears headed for a quagmire in Yemen
****


Huge explosion following airstrike on army weapons depot near Sanaa on Monday (Reuters)

A Saudi Arabia airstrike on Monday on a military weapons depot near
Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, caused the most powerful explosion
of the current Saudi air campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi
militias that have overrun much of the country. The explosion was so
powerful that shop fronts were shattered and windows were blown out
four miles away from the explosion.

The Saudis have been conducting a massive air campaign against the
Houthis in Yemen since March 26. Although there's supposed to be a
large coalition of nations participating, in actual practice only
United Arab Emirates (UAE) has joined the Saudis in the airstrikes.
The only other nation participating militarily is Egypt, which is
bombarding Houthi targets from the sea with its Navy. The US military
is helping out with intelligence and air-to-air refueling, and is
sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group to waters off Yemen.

However, the air campaign is receiving a great deal of international
criticisms because hundreds of civilians have been killed, and the
airstrikes have hit hospitals, schools and a refugee camp. The
Houthis have been storing weapons in hospitals, schools and civilian
neighborhoods in order to provoke such attacks, and they're adapting
to the airstrikes by avoiding being caught in large convoys.

Analysts believe that airstrikes alone are unlikely to settle the war
and that sooner or later, a Saudi ground invasion will be required.
And if that happens, analysts say that the Saudis would be involved in
a bloody quagmire.

As we've been reporting,
the
Pakistan government has rejected Saudi Arabia's request for military
help in Yemen. It turns out that this is a bitter shock to the
Saudis, since Saudi Arabia has provided plenty of military aid to
Pakistan over the decades.

Many analysts are predicting that Saudi Arabia will back down and
negotiate a settlement with the Houthis -- which would be an enormous
victory for the Houthis and for their Iranian sponsors. However, from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia is not in the
mood for a compromise. Saudi Arabia's last generational crisis war
was even earlier than World War II -- it occurred in the 1920s between
the Al Sauds tribes and the Wahhabi tribes, when the Al Sauds subdued
the Wahhabi tribesmen, leading to the creation of the country Saudi
Arabia in 1932. So Saudi Arabia is now deep into a generational
crisis era, and the public mood will be sharply opposed to a
compromise with the country's arch-enemy, Iran. Daily Star (Beirut) and Lowy Interpreter (Australia) and AFP

****
**** US escalates conflict by sending warships to Yemen to confront Iran
****


The USS Langley, the US Navy's first aircraft carrier, off the coast of Baltimore in 1924. (CNN)

In an escalation of America's participation in the Yemen war, the USS
Theodore Roosevelt carrier group is being sent to waters off Yemen to
join other American ships prepared to intercept a convoy of Iranian
ships suspected of carrying weapons to Houthi militias in
Yemen. The Iranian convoy consists of freighters, escorted by
warships from the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard forces.

Iran says that Iranian navy ships in the area were there to protect
its ships from piracy.

The US Navy said in a statement: "The purpose of these operations is
to ensure the vital shipping lanes in the region remain open and safe.
The United States remains committed to its regional partners and to
maintaining security in the maritime environment." NBC News and Washington Times and CNN

****
**** ECB examines a possible 'second currency' for Greece - government IOUs
****

We may know more after the Eurogroup of eurozone finance managers
meet in Riga on Thursday (24-Apr), but it now appears likely
that Greece is going to run completely out of money in the next
two or three weeks, and will be unable to make its debt repayments,
and also will be unable to pay its pensions and the salaries
due to public sector employees.

The Europeans are unwilling to release to Greece the next bailout
payment of 7.2 billion euros until the government of Alexis Tsipras
produces its repeatedly delay list of reforms, addressing various
economic issues, including the bloated public sector, curbing tax
evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting
generous pension and minimum wage policies.

So the European Central Bank (ECB) has been studying an alternative
scenario, where the Greek government issues IOUs in lieu of
cash to pay the pensions and public sector salaries at the end
of the month.

However, using the IOUs would have an important drawback: many Greeks
would then have to withdraw their bank savings, causing a bank run
that would put Greece's banking system into further crisis.
Furthermore, the IOUs could not be used to make debt repayments to the
institutions that loaned money to Greece.

Yields on Greek bonds have now skyrocketed to the levels of 2012,
indicating that the markets are increasingly convinced that Greece is
going to go bankrupt, and will be forced to exist the eurozone, and
return to its former drachma currency. Reuters and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Al Sauds, Wahhabis,
USS Theodore Roosevelt,
Greece, European Central Bank, ECB, Alexis Tsipras

Permanent web link to this article
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The Saudis have (purposely?) let the following cat out of the bag. A ground invasion is in fact being prepared.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> The Saudis have (purposely?) let the following cat out of the
> bag. A ground invasion is in fact being prepared.

I just came across a news story about how the Yemen war has sparked
patriotic and nationalistic fervor in Saudi Arabia.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2...fervor-at-home

So I would guess that you're right.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I just came across a news story about how the Yemen war has sparked
patriotic and nationalistic fervor in Saudi Arabia.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2...fervor-at-home

So I would guess that you're right.

We are living the "may you live in interesting times" curse.

Interestingly, even though WW1 was not a Crisis War, the way things are currently shaping up, it does seemingly resemble the start of WW1, where the sides have not fully formed up yet, but the initial spark has occurred.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> We are living the "may you live in interesting times" curse.

> Interestingly, even though WW1 was not a Crisis War, the way
> things are currently shaping up, it does seemingly resemble the
> start of WW1, where the sides have not fully formed up yet, but
> the initial spark has occurred.

Don't forget that WW I was a crisis war -- not for us, but for Russia,
eastern Europe and Mideast. That has a big effect on what's going on
today.

As I'm typing this, I'm listening to a live press conference by the
Saudi military spokesman. It seems that the Saudis have now achieved
all their military objectives, and so now "Operation Decisive Storm"
is all over.

Now "Operation Restoration of Hope" is beginning.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Don't forget that WW I was a crisis war -- not for us, but for Russia,
eastern Europe and Mideast. That has a big effect on what's going on
today.

As I'm typing this, I'm listening to a live press conference by the
Saudi military spokesman. It seems that the Saudis have now achieved
all their military objectives, and so now "Operation Decisive Storm"
is all over.

Now "Operation Restoration of Hope" is beginning.

Ah yes, nation building ... Saudi style.

*** 22-Apr-15 World View -- Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia declares that it's met its military objectives in Yemen
• Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran

****
**** Saudi Arabia declares that it's met its military objectives in Yemen
****


A patriotic billboard in Riyadh features an image of soldiers and a portrait of Saudi King Salman (AFP)

Saudi Arabia's military announced on Tuesday that it had met its
military objectives in Yemen, and that "Operation Decisive Storm" is
over.

They also announced that "Operation Restoration of Hope" is beginning.

It's not clear what the difference is. The Saudi-led coalition began
a heavy campaign of air strikes on March 23, and Brig. Gen. Ahmed
Asiri, the Saudi military spokesman who announced the change in the
name of the operation, did not indicate whether there would be any
change to the airstrike campaign.

Asiri said that the military campaign’s objectives had been met as the
rebels’ military capabilities had been destroyed. He said that the
Houthis no longer pose a danger to civilians, and that the new
operation will focus on rebuilding the country while denying the
rebels operational movement, protecting civilians, and supporting
evacuation and relief operations:

<QUOTE>"To implement this we will continue to have our
operation. Inside a city like Aden we will continue to protect
civilians to prevent these [Houthis] militias from sustaining
their operations."<END QUOTE>

Analysts that I heard suggested that the Saudis were bowing to
international pressure in view of the number of civilians being killed
by the airstrikes, but that there would never be a resolution of the
conflict with the Houthis unless the Saudis launched a ground troop
invasion. Daily Star (Beirut) and Arab News

****
**** Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran
****

According to an NPR story, the Saudi public has become increasing
patriotic and nationalistic since the Saudi airstrikes have begun. In
addition, the popularity of the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud
has skyrocketed:

• Saudi state television and radio play patriotic war songs and
  run TV spots heralding the military operations in Yemen.
  
• Newly erected billboards show King Salman with the words "God
  Supports You," and, "Without the air force, the country cannot be
  protected."
  
• And in the south, near the border with Yemen, even car washes are
  named after the operation, Decisive Storm.

Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist, says there's unprecedented unity
inside the kingdom because Saudi is seen as standing up to Iran:

<QUOTE>"We felt humiliated, we felt worried of Iranian
expansionism, and we felt somebody must stand against that. And
that's why Saudi people are so much now supporting of King Salman,
they feel he is the man that made that stand. ...

His popularity skyrocketed, people were talking about him before
as a kid, we didn't know much about him. But nowadays, with this
patriotic euphoria, he scored big time."<END QUOTE>

All of this information is anecdotal, but it paints a picture
of a Saudi population in sync with the government leadership
in pursuing the Yemen war.

From the point of view of generational theory, this is what I refer to
as a "war that comes from the people." The Saudi population does not
need to be convinced of the necessity of the war in Yemen; they were
receptive to it from the moment it happened. That's because Saudi
Arabia is deep into a generational Crisis era, as I explained yesterday
, which means
that patriotism and nationalism are going to be high.

The journalist Khashoggi is quoted as saying that the "unprecedented
unity" is occurring BECAUSE Saudi Arabia is seen standing up to Iran.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not the
reason at all. Just standing up to an enemy doesn't always unify the
country. Americans were unified behind President Roosevelt in World
War II, which was a generational crisis war, but not behind Presidents
Kennedy or Johnson in the Vietnam war, which was an Awakening era war.

Like America in the 1960s, Iran is in a generational Awakening era
today, since only one generation has passed since the end of Iran's
Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.

And so we see quite a different picture in Iran. There have been no
reports of carwashes in Iran backing Iran's support of the Houthis in
Yemen. There have been no reports of patriotic war songs, or
patriotic billboards about Yemen.

There are plenty of reports about statements from Iran government
officials. Here's one from a speech by Iran's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei from February:

<QUOTE>"Whether or not our enemies like it, the Islamic
Revolution has been advancing since its beginning, and today we
have might in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bahrain, Yemen, and
even Saudi Arabia, that we did not have from 1978-1991... In the
not-so-distant future, we will see the twilight of America and
Israel – this is not a slogan... Today we in Iran, Hizbullah in
Lebanon, Ansar Allah [i.e. the Houthi movement] in Yemen, the
National Defense Force in Syria, [and] the popular forces in Iraq
have become much stronger... The great popular army begins to take
shape in the world; be certain that this movement is
undefeatable."<END QUOTE>

This is actually a pathetic attempt to relive the erotic days of the
1979 revolution by blaming everything on the United States. It worked
then because Iran was in a generational Crisis era. Khamenei's
arguments are old and shopworn, and a version of them could have been
used (and were used) at any time since the 1980s.

So this is what I refer to as "a war that comes from the politicians."
The public mood is completely different, and the public support is
almost nonexistent.

Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era. Just as Americans in
the 1960s were sick of hearing about the dangers of Communism,
Iranians today are sick of hearing about the evils of the West,
which they really don't believe.

The difference is that Iran's population today contain many survivors
of the 1980s wars. They remember how bloody the revolution was, and
how 1 1/2 million people were killed in the war with Saddam. And of
course they remember that they were victimized by Saddam's use of
poison gas.

That's why there are no carwashes in Iran exalting Iran's support for
the Houthis in Yemen. In fact, that's why Khamenei can't even admit
that Iran is participating, since he knows how unpopular that would
be. The Iranian people remember the 1980s, and don't want another
war.

Here's a brief additional word on some nearby countries. Iraq, Syria
and Lebanon are also all in generational Awakening eras, and the
public mood is similar.

In Iraq in the 1980s, the Sunnis and Shias were unified behind Saddam
to fight Iran in the Iran/Iraq war. Today, the Sunnis are joining up
with Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Iraq army has a
reputation for dropping their weapons and running for their lives, and
the Shia militias have had little success.

In Syria, president Bashar al-Assad is using everything from heavy
weapons to Sarin gas to chlorine gas to subjugate his people, but
instead of fighting, they're running away, and now there are millions
of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries.

In Lebanon, the political situation is so fractured that the country
has been unable to elect a president for months. Hezbollah militias
are fighting in Syria, but that's because Hezbollah leader Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah is forcing them to, and, ironically, that's because
Nasrallah's puppetmasters in Iran are forcing him to do so.

But other countries -- Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Israel,
Palestinian territories (Palestine) -- are deep into a generational
crisis era, and those countries are going to drive the coming major
sectarian war. NPR and Memri and
Gulf News/Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Operation Decisive Storm,
Operation Restoration of Hope, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ahmed Asiri, Jamal Khashoggi, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Lebanon,
Iraq, Saddam Hussein

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

But other countries -- Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Israel,
Palestinian territories (Palestine) -- are deep into a generational
crisis era, and those countries are going to drive the coming major
sectarian war.

This is the ancient Abrahamic core.

The US would win easily against China in a nuclear exchange with current force strengths. Xenakis Assumptions don't make sense with the force strengths listed on most intelligence websites. Those assumptions only make sense if you think China's arsenal is bigger than that of the US.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> The US would win easily against China in a nuclear exchange with
> current force strengths. Xenakis Assumptions don't make sense with
> the force strengths listed on most intelligence websites. Those
> assumptions only make sense if you think China's arsenal is bigger
> than that of the US.

"Win easily"????? I don't think so. The US didn't win easily over
Japan in WW II, and the US was five times the size of Japan. Nobody
ever wins a generational crisis war easily.

After China's massive nuclear missile attack and America's
retaliation, both countries will be flat on their backs. That's when
the real world war will begin, and it will take years to end. America
may indeed win, but it definitely won't be easy.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

"Win easily"????? I don't think so. Japan didn't win easily in WW
II, and the US was five times the size of Japan. Nobody ever wins
a generational crisis war easily.

After China's massive nuclear missile attack and America's
retaliation, both countries will be flat on their backs. That's when
the real world war will begin, and it will take years to end. America
may indeed win, but it definitely won't be easy.

You don't get it, Because of china's smaller missile force, they will run out of missiles much more quickly than the US. This does not even factor the fact that china directly borders at least two potentially hostile nuclear powers (Russia and India) so even if china decides to go nuclear, they would have to keep some missiles in reserve to keep watch against its own neighbors. The US on the other hand would still have several thousand warheads, they would then be used to systematically dismantle china without much opposition, especially if the US opts for a countervalue strategy. China would not use nukes initially for that reason, it negates china's population advantage and directly plays into enemy hands militarily (both with regards to china's neighbors, the US, and Russia).

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> You don't get it, Because of china's smaller missile force, they
> will run out of missiles much more quickly than the US. This does
> not even factor the fact that china directly borders at least two
> potentially hostile nuclear powers (Russia and India) so even if
> china decides to go nuclear, they would have to keep some missiles
> in reserve to keep watch against its own neighbors. The US on the
> other hand would still have several thousand warheads, they would
> then be used to systematically dismantle china without much
> opposition, especially if the US opts for a countervalue
> strategy. China would not use nukes initially for that reason, it
> negates china's population advantage and directly plays into enemy
> hands militarily (both with regards to china's neighbors, the US,
> and Russia).

You're assuming that China would act rationally. Countries rarely act
rationally in a generational crisis war. The South launched the civil
war even though they were sure to lose. Japan bombed Pearl Harbor,
even though they were sure to lose. People tell themselves what they
want to believe. The Chinese are telling themselves that America is
weak, America won't retaliate (v Syria red line), that China's
initial attack will destroy most counterattack capabilities, Obama
is indecisive, that China is four times as big as America, etc., etc.
Everything I read that comes out of China smells of total insanity
and a state of denial. There is nothing rational about China.

An example in modern times occurred in 2006, when Israel went to war
with Hizbollah in Lebanon, within four hours of the capture of two
Israeli soldiers, with no plan, and no objective, resulting in total
chaos. The war was a disaster for Israel, and was totally irrational,
and yet it happened, and only a few years ago. That's the kind of
thing that always happens during a generational Crisis era.

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The US didn't win easily over
Japan in WW II, and the US was five times the size of Japan. Nobody
ever wins a generational crisis war easily.

Japan was doomed after midway. The remainder of the war was basically a massive Mop-up operation.

There is also the fact that China would likely be invaded by Russia, India, Japan and Vietnam unless those countries are also attacked in which case any nuke used against those countries would be a nuke not Used against the US. China would be returned to the position it had in the 1930's when it looked like it would be partitioned by Japan and Russia. The Chinese do remember how badly their country fared under Japanese and Russian occupation.

*** 23-Apr-15 World View -- Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse
• ISIS and Yemen force yet another realignment of the Mideast

****
**** Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse
****


Top officials of the Palestinian 'unity government' as of June 2, 2014 (AFP)

A five-day meeting in Gaza between the two major Palestinian factions
ended in crisis after just one day on Wednesday, once again bringing
into question whether there can ever be a Palestinian "unity
government."

The two-state solution to the Mideast crisis that everyone talks about
is usually described as a State of Palestine existing side-by-side
with a State of Israel in peace and harmony.

As I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", referring to President George
Bush's proposed peace plan, no peace plan can work because
Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting
the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel.

So it's no surprise that, once again, unity talks between the two
major Palestinian factions that are a prerequisite to a State of
Palestine are collapsing.

The Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) used to govern both Palestinian
territories, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank but after Hamas took
control of Gaza in 2007, leading to a bitter war between the two
factions, it's been pretty clear that a successful peace treaty
between Hamas and Fatah has been even less like likely than a peace
treaty between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

On April 23 of last year, the two major Palestinian factions signed a
"Palestinian unity agreement," as a prerequisite to forming a State of
Palestine. The agreement provided for a series of steps to unify the
two factions into a common government, but now, a year later, nothing
has changed.

The unity agreement never really had a chance, but whatever chance it
had was destroyed by the summer war between Israel and Hamas. The war
was a disaster and humiliation for Hamas, which launched thousands of
missiles at Israel without a single one ever drawing blood, thanks to
Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. In the end, Egypt, the PA
and Israel imposed a cease-fire on Hamas that met not a single one of
Hamas's demands. There were supposed to be follow-on talks to
negotiate terms for ending the blockade of Gaza being imposed by both
Israel and Egypt, but those talks never started.

This last week, a ministerial delegation from the PA in the West Bank
visit Hamas in the Gaza Strip, so that the two groups could negotiate
plans for how the unity government was going to pay the salaries of
the public employees in Gaza.

There are two sides to the story of what happened next: Hamas claims
that the PA delegation went to their hotel rooms and refused to leave.
The PA claims that the delegation went to their hotel rooms and were
prevented from leaving by Hamas. Either way, they didn't leave their
hotel rooms, and the meeting ended in bitter discord within one day,
making it appear very likely that the entire unity government concept
is near collapse. AFP and Xinhua and Times of Israel

****
**** ISIS and Yemen force yet another realignment of the Mideast
****

Not only did the Gaza war really end the Hamas/Fatah unity government,
it split the entire Mideast into two large factions. In a major realignment
, Israel plus Egypt
plus the Palestinian Authority plus Saudi Arabia were allied, versus
Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey. In addition, Iran has been supplying
money and heavy weapons to Hamas.

However, since the end of the Gaza war, two major events have shaken
the Mideast and is forcing the old realignment to be replaced by a new
realignment. The two events are:

• The rise of Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in
  Syria and Iraq, to the point where many of the other Mideast states
  feel threatened.
  
• The Yemen war, which is pitting the Iran-backed Shia Houthi
  militias versus the Saudi Arabian-led coalition supporting the
  "moderate" Sunni tribes in Yemen. At the same time, Al-Qaeda on the
  Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS have been taking advantage of the
  chaos to gain territory.

In this sectarian environment, a new realignment has been occurring.
Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is acting as a
mediator to restore Saudi ties with Qatar and Turkey, and also to
restore ties between Turkey and Egypt.

In fact, a rather startling non-event that occurred on Tuesday is
being taken as a sign of renewed friendship between Egypt and Turkey.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a big supporter Egypt's
former president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government,
the only democratically elected government in Egypt's history.
Erdogan broke off relations with Egypt after Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi
engineered the coup in July 2013 that ousted Morsi. Since then, Morsi
has been kept in jail, and Erdogan has repeatedly stated his
solidarity with Morsi, and demanded that he be freed.

On Tuesday, Morsi was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment on charges
arising from the killing of protesters.

The startling non-event that we referred to above is that Erdogan
hasn't said a word. Turkey's Foreign Ministry did issue a statement
saying, "The verdict against former President Morsi ... aggravate[s]
concerns about the future of democracy in Egypt." But we haven't
heard a peep from Erdogan himself.

This is being perceived as an abandonment of Morsi engineered by Saudi
King Salman. According to one analyst, “The fact that he [Erdogan]
did not say a single word the day Morsi received 20 years
[imprisonment]" showed that Erdogan has succumbed to the wishes of his
only allies left in the region, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
Today's Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, West Bank, Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Authority,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Israel, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, Yemen, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 23-Apr-15 World View -- Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse
• ISIS and Yemen force yet another realignment of the Mideast

****
**** Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse
****


Top officials of the Palestinian 'unity government' as of June 2, 2014 (AFP)

A five-day meeting in Gaza between the two major Palestinian factions
ended in crisis after just one day on Wednesday, once again bringing
into question whether there can ever be a Palestinian "unity
government."

The two-state solution to the Mideast crisis that everyone talks about
is usually described as a State of Palestine existing side-by-side
with a State of Israel in peace and harmony.

As I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", referring to President George
Bush's proposed peace plan, no peace plan can work because
Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting
the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel.

So it's no surprise that, once again, unity talks between the two
major Palestinian factions that are a prerequisite to a State of
Palestine are collapsing.

The Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) used to govern both Palestinian
territories, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank but after Hamas took
control of Gaza in 2007, leading to a bitter war between the two
factions, it's been pretty clear that a successful peace treaty
between Hamas and Fatah has been even less like likely than a peace
treaty between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

On April 23 of last year, the two major Palestinian factions signed a
"Palestinian unity agreement," as a prerequisite to forming a State of
Palestine. The agreement provided for a series of steps to unify the
two factions into a common government, but now, a year later, nothing
has changed.

The unity agreement never really had a chance, but whatever chance it
had was destroyed by the summer war between Israel and Hamas. The war
was a disaster and humiliation for Hamas, which launched thousands of
missiles at Israel without a single one ever drawing blood, thanks to
Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. In the end, Egypt, the PA
and Israel imposed a cease-fire on Hamas that met not a single one of
Hamas's demands. There were supposed to be follow-on talks to
negotiate terms for ending the blockade of Gaza being imposed by both
Israel and Egypt, but those talks never started.

This last week, a ministerial delegation from the PA in the West Bank
visit Hamas in the Gaza Strip, so that the two groups could negotiate
plans for how the unity government was going to pay the salaries of
the public employees in Gaza.

There are two sides to the story of what happened next: Hamas claims
that the PA delegation went to their hotel rooms and refused to leave.
The PA claims that the delegation went to their hotel rooms and were
prevented from leaving by Hamas. Either way, they didn't leave their
hotel rooms, and the meeting ended in bitter discord within one day,
making it appear very likely that the entire unity government concept
is near collapse. AFP and Xinhua and Times of Israel

****
**** ISIS and Yemen force yet another realignment of the Mideast
****

Not only did the Gaza war really end the Hamas/Fatah unity government,
it split the entire Mideast into two large factions. In a major realignment
, Israel plus Egypt
plus the Palestinian Authority plus Saudi Arabia were allied, versus
Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey. In addition, Iran has been supplying
money and heavy weapons to Hamas.

However, since the end of the Gaza war, two major events have shaken
the Mideast and is forcing the old realignment to be replaced by a new
realignment. The two events are:

• The rise of Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in
  Syria and Iraq, to the point where many of the other Mideast states
  feel threatened.
• The Yemen war, which is pitting the Iran-backed Shia Houthi
  militias versus the Saudi Arabian-led coalition supporting the
  "moderate" Sunni tribes in Yemen. At the same time, Al-Qaeda on the
  Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS have been taking advantage of the
  chaos to gain territory.

In this sectarian environment, a new realignment has been occurring.
Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is acting as a
mediator to restore Saudi ties with Qatar and Turkey, and also to
restore ties between Turkey and Egypt.

In fact, a rather startling non-event that occurred on Tuesday is
being taken as a sign of renewed friendship between Egypt and Turkey.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a big supporter Egypt's
former president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government,
the only democratically elected government in Egypt's history.
Erdogan broke off relations with Egypt after Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi
engineered the coup in July 2013 that ousted Morsi. Since then, Morsi
has been kept in jail, and Erdogan has repeatedly stated his
solidarity with Morsi, and demanded that he be freed.

On Tuesday, Morsi was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment on charges
arising from the killing of protesters.

The startling non-event that we referred to above is that Erdogan
hasn't said a word. Turkey's Foreign Ministry did issue a statement
saying, "The verdict against former President Morsi ... aggravate[s]
concerns about the future of democracy in Egypt." But we haven't
heard a peep from Erdogan himself.

This is being perceived as an abandonment of Morsi engineered by Saudi
King Salman. According to one analyst, “The fact that he [Erdogan]
did not say a single word the day Morsi received 20 years
[imprisonment]" showed that Erdogan has succumbed to the wishes of his
only allies left in the region, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
Today's Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, West Bank, Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Authority,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Israel, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, Yemen, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

As I noted previously this is a very ancient alignment. Eschatologists are wetting their pants.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

"Win easily"????? I don't think so. The US didn't win easily over
Japan in WW II, and the US was five times the size of Japan. Nobody
ever wins a generational crisis war easily.

After China's massive nuclear missile attack and America's
retaliation, both countries will be flat on their backs. That's when
the real world war will begin, and it will take years to end. America
may indeed win, but it definitely won't be easy.

http://missilethreat.com/pla-could-b...ith-us-report/

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> http://missilethreat.com/pla-could-b...ith-us-report/

The Chinese are already close to hysteria in their irrational plan to launch
a massive military attack on the United States.

If there's one thing that would make them even more determined to strike and win,
it would be reading an opinion by a Russian "expert" saying that the U.S.
could defeat China in an hour.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> There is also the fact that China would likely be invaded by
> Russia, India, Japan and Vietnam unless those countries are also
> attacked in which case any nuke used against those countries would
> be a nuke not Used against the US. China would be returned to the
> position it had in the 1930's when it looked like it would be
> partitioned by Japan and Russia. The Chinese do remember how badly
> their country fared under Japanese and Russian occupation.

The Chinese, of course, will be aware of all that, and will plan for it.
One scenario is that they'll do what Hitler did with Stalin: sign a
mutual non-aggression pact with any of these countries in the case of
a war. Once the US is flat on its back, those countries will not want
to get involved, for fear that the Chinese missiles will turn on them.

Originally Posted by PLA General Zhu Chenghu, 2005

> "If the Americans are determined to interfere [with Taiwan then]
> we will be determined to respond. We ... will prepare ourselves
> for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course
> the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities
> will be destroyed by the Chinese."

** China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...16.htm#e050716

Originally Posted by China's UN ambassador Sha Zukang, 2006

> "The moment that Taiwan declares independence, supported by
> whomever, China will have no choice but to [use] whatever means
> available to my government. Nobody should have any illusions on
> that. ...

> It's not a matter of how big Taiwan is, but for China, one INCH of
> the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people."

> [With regard to the U.S.'s constant criticism of China's rapid
> militarization:] It's better for the U.S. to shut up, keep quiet.
> That's much, much better. China's population is 6 times or 5
> times the United States. Why blame China? No. forget it. It's
> high time to shut up. It's a nation's sovereign right to do what
> is good for them. But don't tell us what's good for China. Thank
> you very much."

** Furious Chinese ambassador harshly threatens U.S. over Taiwan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...18.htm#e060818