Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

If there's one thing that would make them even more determined to strike and win,
it would be reading an opinion by a Russian "expert" saying that the U.S.
could defeat China in an hour.

How can china win against the US fleet, our Missile Submarines are not in port at any given time other than 2 subs that happened to be refueling. China Does not have enough missiles to eliminate the ICBM force. They would need at least 1000 ICBMs to eliminate the silos.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The Chinese, of course, will be aware of all that, and will plan for it.
One scenario is that they'll do what Hitler did with Stalin: sign a
mutual non-aggression pact with any of these countries in the case of
a war. Once the US is flat on its back, those countries will not want
to get involved, for fear that the Chinese missiles will turn on them.

How would China deter a Russian attack after a nuclear exchange, their arsenal would be massively depleted and their cities and ports would have been destroyed. How would china deter Russia in such a state?

Wouldn't China want to conquer these territories to ensure secure supply lines for an eventual war with the US?

With Regards to a Pact the US can easily offer Manchuria and other territories to Russia to join the war against China. This does not even factor in the fact that the US can easily deflect china before a war by offering Siberia, Central Asia, Northern India and Vietnam to China to ensure that China goes to war with the Russian-allied bloc first.

One Final thing, the Invasion of Taiwan is currently unlikely to occur, Currently China and Taiwan largely Cooperate against Japan and Vietnam.

*** 24-Apr-15 World View -- Europe pledges to solve the unsolvable migrant problem

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The flood of farmer suicides continues to grow in India
• Europe pledges to solve the unsolvable migrant problem
• Eritrea: The most repressive regime in the world

****
**** The flood of farmer suicides continues to grow in India
****


Gajendra Singh's suicide note (Indian Express)

On Thursday, a farmer in India's Uttar Pradesh, near Delhi, committed
suicide by consuming pesticide. He had suffered crop losses due to
bad weather.

Just one day earlier, Gajendra Singh, a farmer, had committed suicide
by hanging himself from a tree in the middle of a crowded
anti-government political rally. The farmer left a suicide note:

<QUOTE>"My father has thrown me out of house as my entire
crop had been destroyed. I have three children. ... Please tell
me, how do I go home.

Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan."<END QUOTE>

The last line means "Hail the soldier, hail the farmer." It's a
slogan from the 1960s, when India was facing two simultaneous crises
-- war with Pakistan, and a severe shortage of food.

The farmer killed himself in support of the political rally, whose
purpose was to protest proposed changes by prime minister Narendra
Modi to India's Land Acquisition law. The proposed changes will, in
many circumstances, allow the government to take a farmer's land
without his consent, without concern for the social impact, and with
reduced compensation.

However, the Land Acquisition law is not the principal cause
of farmer suicides. The principal cause is the weather.

Whether it's India's historically severe drought in 2012, or the
historically high abundance of rainfall and hail so far this year,
India's crops depend on the weather. This year, cotton farmers are
hit with a double whammy: The crop was good last year, so cotton
prices are low, while this year's crops have been adversely affected
by the weather. So farmers have a small crop to sell at low prices.

A poor crop means that the farmer cannot repay his debts or feed his
family. According to one widow, "He was in so much debt. He wasn't
getting any money from cotton. He chose death over distress."

There has been a recent wave of 40 farmer suicides. Over 600 farmers
have committed suicide so far this year. There are thousands or tens
of thousands of farmer suicides every year. Government data shows
11,772 farmers committed suicide in 2013 across India, which is 44
deaths every day. Indian Express and Economic Times (India) and DNA India and CNN and New Delhi TV

****
**** Europe pledges to solve the unsolvable migrant problem
****

Estimates range from 500,000 to 1 million for the number of migrants
who have come from other countries to Libya, waiting for their turn to
travel to Europe. Analysts expect around 200,000 of them to reach EU
this year. They spend thousands of dollars -- their life savings --
to be put on a rubber dinghy or rickety boat to be allowed to cross
the Mediterranean Sea, counting on being saved by someone if the boat
gets into trouble as many do.

However, some 1600 migrants have died crossing the Mediterranean
in the last couple of weeks, and this forced the EU to hold
an emergency meeting in Brussels on Thursday to find a solution.

One outcome of the meeting was that EU leaders pledged 120 million
euros annually to redeploy a search and rescue program similar to the
"Mare Nostrum" program that that Italy funded on its own until
November of last year, and which rescued over 200,000 migrants last
year. However, that was the easy decision, especially because there
are some restrictions and because it's not clear that all the money
will be funded.

On the other hand, there are several problems that were not solved:

• Increasing the funding for a search-and-rescue program is only
  going to increase the number of migrants reaching Europe. The
  proposal is that they be distributed more or less evenly among the 28
  EU countries. But the UK in particular said it didn't want any of
  them, and other countries have expressed reluctance as well.
  
• One proposal is for European naval vessels to block the most
  widely used ports in Libya. However, this would require the position
  of Libya's government, and Libya is currently in chaos with two
  governments.
  
• There are only a finite number of boats available in Libya, and
  there are reports of a shortage of boats, which explains the very poor
  quality of the boats that the traffickers are using. The proposal is
  to ask the Libyan authorities to confiscate all available boats along
  the Mediterranean shore, so that they can't be used. Once again, this
  may not be possible with Libya's government in chaos.

Even if the ports could be blocked or all the boats could be
confiscated, there would still be a crisis in Libya with hundreds of
thousands of migrants waiting to travel to Europe. Even worse, the
crisis would turn to violence because the traffickers will do anything
to continue extracting thousands of dollars from each migrant.

With warm weather approaching, the height of the migrant season is
just beginning. It's safe to assume that Thursdays meeting in
Brussels will have done nothing to solve the problem. Middle East Eye and Catholic Online and Bloomberg

****
**** Eritrea: The most repressive regime in the world
****

Even worse than North Korea or Iran, the African state of Eritrea is
considered by many to be the most repressive country in the world.
And it's also second only to war-torn Syria as the leading country
from which EU-bound migrants originate. In fact, all the corpses
found during the night after the shipwreck off the coast of Lampedusa
last week were Eritrean.

Eritrea has one of the poorest human rights records in the world.
Anyone can be arrested and tortured at any time on the unsupported
charge of criticizing someone in the government, or for attending
the wrong religious institution. The Committee to
Protect Journalists (CPJ) has labeled it the "most censored" country
in the world. (The next nine are: North Korea, Saudi Arabia,
Ethiopia, Azerbaijan, Vietnam, Iran, China, Burma, and Cuba.)

What is unique about Eritrea is the extent of military repression as
practiced through a strictly-enforced conscription regimen and
martial culture. Eritrea’s army is about 600,000 strong, which is one
tenth of the population of about 6 million. Few countries anywhere,
other than North Korea or the Cambodia of the Khmer Rouge, have one
tenth of their population in the army. Some people are forced
to serve in the armed forces until age 50.

Many people are forced to work at government jobs essentially as
slaves. The average monthly salary is $12. If someone escapes to
Europe as a migrant to earn money, the remittances that the migrant
sends back to his family are heavily taxed by the state.

Like many African countries, Eritrea has a "youth bulge" in its
population. Many of these young men and women are not satisfied with
living in the most repressive nation in the world, and they're willing
to make any sacrifice or take any risk to reach Europe and a better
life. Thursday's EU meeting in Brussels will have no effect on that.
Geopolitical Monitor and Telegraph and Guardian (Nov-2014) and Foreign Policy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Uttar Pradesh, Gajendra Singh,
Narendra Modi, Land Acquisition,
European Union, Italy, Mare Nostrum, Libya,
Eritrea, North Korea, Iran

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*** 25-Apr-15 World View -- Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli
• Turkey commemorates the 100th anniversary of Anzac day and the Battle of Gallipoli
• Turkey debates its role in the Armenian genocide
• The politics of genocide and rape -- in Turkey and elsewhere

****
**** Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli
****


British soldiers just before landing at Gallipoli in 1915

There are so many bizarre things going on in the world today, and this
one has to be near the top of the list.

For Turkey, Australia and New Zealand, the most important battle of
World War I was the Battle of Gallipoli, which ran from April 25,
1915, to January 9, 1916. Turkey has commemorated the battle in the
past on April 25.

According to Armenia, Turkey (the Ottoman Empire) committed a genocide
against Armenians, and the genocide began on April 24, 1915, when the
Young Turks government began deporting Armenians. Turkey denies that
there was a genocide. Armenia has scheduled a centennial
commemoration of the start of the deportations for next month on April
24.

In view of Armenia's genocide commemoration, Turkey has moved its
Gallipoli commemoration to April 24 as well, so that the two
commemorations compete with one another.

So on Friday there were two dueling centennial commemorations: The
Battle of Gallipoli was commemorated in Istanbul, the capital city of
Turkey, while the Armenian genocide was commemorated in Yerevan, the
capital city of Armenia. Daily Sabah (Istanbul)

****
**** Turkey commemorates the 100th anniversary of Anzac day and the Battle of Gallipoli
****

"Anzac" is the acronym for Australian and New Zealand Army Corps, and
April 24 is commemorated every year in Australia and New Zealand as
Anzac Day, the first day of the Battle of Gallipoli. Australia had
only become an independent nation in 1901, and New Zealand in 1907, so
these were very young nations, anxious to prove themselves to the
world.

Here's a summary of the Battle of Gallipoli:

350,000 British troops, 25,000 died
79,000 French troops, 10,000 died
74,000 Anzac troops, 10,000 died
400,000 Turkish troops, 86,000 died

The Battle of Gallipoli was pretty much a disaster for all sides, but
it's still remembered as a major turning point in the history of
Australia and New Zealand. The character of these two nations was
forever shaped by this experience. BBC

****
**** Turkey debates its role in the Armenian genocide
****

At the same time that Turkey was fighting the British, Irish,
Australians and Kiwis at the Battle of Gallipoli, Turkey, which is a
Muslim nation, was also in a war with Russia, which is an Orthodox
Christian nation, in the Caucasus region.

Turkey (as the Ottoman Empire) and Russia were previously in a
generational crisis war with the Crimean War of the 1850s. That war
was extremely bloody and a disaster for Turkey, and so now they were
fighting again, and nothing mattered to Turkey at this time than the
continued existence of Turkey and its way of life.

Armenians also are Orthodox Christian, and some 2 million of them
were living in Turkey at the time of World War I. To the leaders
of Turkey at the time, the Armenians living in Turkey were an
existential threat to Turkey, and a decision was made to
"remove" all the Armenians living in eastern Turkey.

On April 24, 1915, the Young Turks government of Turkey arrested and
executed several hundred Armenian intellectuals. After that, ordinary
Armenians were turned out of their homes and sent on death marches
through the Mesopotamian desert without food or water. Frequently, the
marchers were stripped naked and forced to walk under the scorching
sun until they dropped dead. People who stopped to rest were shot. In
other cases killing squads or "butcher battalions" drowned Armenians
in rivers, threw them off cliffs, and burned them alive. The Turkish
countryside was littered with Armenian corpses.

Turkey generally agrees that many Armenians died at the time, but they
claim that the atrocities were not part of any organized plan.
Furthermore they point to the fact that some 2.5 million Turkish
Muslims also lost their lives during World War I.

As a result, Turkey has always denied that what happened in 1915 was a
genocide. However, it's worth noting that this opinion is not
unanimous in Turkey, and many Turks believe that they should just
concede that a genocide occurred in order to defuse the issue and move
on. History.com and Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Der Spiegel (Germany)

****
**** The politics of genocide and rape -- in Turkey and elsewhere
****

As in the case of the word "rape," I'm pretty cynical about the
use of the word "genocide."

Some of the bloodiest genocides of the 20th century were perpetrated
by Great Socialist or Communist leaders -- Stalin in Ukraine in the
Holodomor in the 1930s, Mao Zedong in China's Great Leap Forward in
the 1950s, Pol Pot in the Killing Fields of Cambodia in the 1970s --
without a peep from liberals.

This became clear to me in 1975, when far-left liberal
feminist Jane Fonda and far-left "anti-war" liberal John Kerry
(currently Secretary of State) approved of the massive slaughter
of millions of Cambodians by Great Socialist Leader Pol Pot. Fonda
and Kerry couldn't have cared less how many people starved or
tortured, had their fingernails pulled or eyes gouged out, as
long as it was done by a socialist. And this was a decade after
college kids were carrying copies of the "Little Red Book of
Chairman Mao" while Chairman Mao was massacring tens of millions
of people.

The same kind of thing is true of rape. When Bill Clinton was
credibly charged in the late 1990s of raping several women, it became
clear that ultra-feminist liberal rape victim Susan Estrich couldn't
have cared less how many women Clinton had raped. The same was true
of his wife, Hillary Clinton. These days, ultra-feminist rape
activists couldn't care less how many women were raped by the sleazy
Julian Assange, who has been hiding out in the Ecuador embassy in
London to avoid facing rape charges.

So I mention all that to make clear how cynical I am about these kinds
of charges. They have absolutely no meaning except to be used
hypocritically as a political weapon, and generally have no
relationship to the truth.

So now let's turn to whether the deaths of a million Armenians in
Turkey in 1915 can be classified as "genocide."

First off, the legal definition of genocide can't apply, because
genocide wasn't a "crime" until 1948, and the slaughter occurred in
1915. In fact, the word "genocide" didn't even exist in 1915. It
was only invented in the 1940s, in reaction to the Nazi Holocaust.

But let's ignore all that, and apply the legal definition of genocide
to 1915 Turkey. Here's the first part of the legal definition in the
"Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide"
adopted by the United Nations in 1948:

<QUOTE>"Article I

The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed
in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international
law which they undertake to prevent and to punish.

Article II

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following
acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a
national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

• Killing members of the group;
  
• Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the
  group;
• Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of
  life calculated to bring about its physical destruction
  in whole or in part;
• Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the
  group;
• Forcibly transferring children of the group to another
  group.

Article III

The following acts shall be punishable:

• Genocide;
• Conspiracy to commit genocide;
• Direct and public incitement to commit genocide;
• Attempt to commit genocide;
• Complicity in genocide.

Article IV

Persons committing genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in
article III shall be punished, whether they are constitutionally
responsible rulers, public officials or private
individuals."<END QUOTE>

So, if we apply this definition, then it's clear that the Armenian
Genocide was indeed a genocide. The Young Turks government
deported millions of Armenians, subjecting them to starvation,
exhaustion and death. This easily complies with the UN definition.

However, so do a lot of other things. I point to the Allied
firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo, and the use of nuclear weapons on
Japanese cities at the end of World War II as examples of mass
slaughter that also clearly fit the UN definition of genocide.

Generational Dynamics has its own definition of genocide that differs
slightly (though not significantly) from the United Nations
definition. And acts of genocide are crucial in understanding how a
society or nation goes from one generational crisis war to the next.

During a generational crisis war, like World War II for America, the
value of an individual human life gets smaller and smaller, and the
only thing that matters is the survival of the society and its way of
life. Every crisis war ends in some variation of what is called "an
explosive genocidal climax," where the value of an individual human
life is effectively zero, and nothing matters except winning the war
at any cost. At that time, the war can end with a mass slaughter
that's regretted for decades.

After the war ends, the winners write the history of what happened,
and decide which actions (the losers' actions) were genocidal and
which were not (the winners' actions). However there is something
that the survivors of both the winning and losing side agree
on: What happened is so horrible that it must never be permitted
to happen again. And I emphasize that both the winners and losers
feel the same way about this. And so they create austere rules
and institutions to prevent it from happening again.

This leads to a generational Awakening era (like America in the
1960s), where the young post-war generations reject their parents'
austere rules and institutions, and the value of an individual human
life becomes paramount again. This leads to a generational Unraveling
era, like America in the 1990s, where all the austere rules and
institutions completely unravel. Finally, the society enters a new
generational Crisis era, as America did in the early 2000s. All the
survivors from the previous crisis war are gone (retired or dead), and
there's no one left who remembers the horrors of the previous
genocidal climax, or who vowed never to let it happen again. And then
it does happen again. History.com and
UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Battle of Gallipoli, Australia,
New Zealand, Armenia, Anzac, Australian and New Zealand Army Corps,
Russia, Young Turks, Stalin, Ukraine, Holodomor, Mao Zedong, China,
Pol Pot, Killing Fields, Cambodia, Jane Fonda, John Kerry,
Bill Clinton, Susan Estrich, Julian Assange,
Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide,
Dresden, Tokyo

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*** 26-Apr-15 World View -- Greece's government will confiscate cash reserves from all public institutions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's government will confiscate cash reserves from all public institutions
• Greece's people face the future with anxiety and dread
• China speeds up its military takeover of the South China Sea
• Vietnam and the Philippines establish a strategic military partnership to counter China

****
**** Greece's government will confiscate cash reserves from all public institutions
****


The Hellenic Parliament building, where a decree was adopted to confiscate cash reserves of Greece's public institutions

After a bitter debate, Greece's parliament on Friday adopted a decree
ordering all public institutions to hand over their cash reserves to
the central bank.

This means that everything from municipalities and provinces to state
universities will have to give up all the spare cash in their bank
accounts. 1,400 public institutions will be handing over their
reserves.

The money will be used to cover "the state's urgent needs, which
amount to three billion euros over the next 15 days." The government
estimates the decree will raise some 1.5 billion euros, but local
media have put the figure at around 400 million euros.

Mayors, labor unions and college directors have been complaining
bitterly about the decree. According to one public sector labor union
leader, "It is unjust and unacceptable for the state to manage
municipalities' funds." Kathimerini and AFP and Reuters

****
**** Greece's people face the future with anxiety and dread
****

Some individual people can face the future realistically, even when
it's obvious that the future is going to be bad.

But when you talk about entire populations of people or generations of
people, self-delusion is the rule. The British ignored the Nazis'
military buildup. America ignored the real estate bubble in the
mid-2000s decade, and they're ignoring China's military buildup today.
Actually, "ignored" is the wrong word. In each case, they deluded
themselves into believing what was obviously true was not.

Ever since the Greek financial crisis began in the 2010, I've been
writing that no solution exists, and that one day Greece will be
forced into financial bankruptcy. Honestly, I thought it would have
happened before now, but I underestimated the depth and extent of the
self-delusion that not only the Greek people but also the European
politicians would inflict on themselves and each other. In the course
of writing about the Greek crisis over the past five years, some of
the unbelievably ridiculous things that I've quoted from European
officials have been truly astounding.

But at some point, reality overcomes self-delusion. And it seems to
be the case that that point is being reached right now.

Friday's Eurogroup meeting of the eurozone's finance ministers was
behind closed doors but was a verbal slugfest, descending into
acrimony and name-calling, according to reports. Greece's finance
minister, Yanis Varoufakis, who is an expert on game theory, was
accused of being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel had to call for calm.

After the meeting, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said flat
that there will be no money given to Greece unless and until
Varoufakis produces a list of committed reforms that he promised in
February. The list would need to address various economic issues,
including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and
corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous
pension and minimum wage policies. Varoufakis has repeatedly promised
that the list would be provided in a few days, and now the other
finance ministers have apparently concluded that he's a charlatan.

The Greek people are watching all this with a mixture of dread, shock
and foreboding. Polls indicate that over 70% of them want Greece to
remain in the eurozone, but they see it all slipping away.
Self-delusion is giving way to reality.

It's not just the name-calling at the Eurogroup. The Greek people
have seen news stories that the government will be running out of
money in a couple of weeks, and will paying salaries and pensions in
IOUs. And now they hear that the government will be confiscating any
available cash held by local governments and state organizations.

They fear their savings will be next. Anyone who can move their money
out of a Greek bank into a foreign bank is doing so. Undoubtedly, a
lot of people's mattresses are also being filled up with their life
savings.

According to one communist MP:

<QUOTE>"Even if there is a temporary solution it will not
solve our problems. Our country produces nothing. Its
manufacturing base has been destroyed, it is de-industrialised and
agriculturally deserted. What lies ahead is great, great
hardship."<END QUOTE>

When even the communists give up their delusions, you know that
reality is really taking hold.

A word of warning. When a population turns from self-delusion to
reality, they find someone to blame, and sometimes they do dangerous
things, like turn fascist or start a war. We've seen nothing like
that in Greece so far, but if things get extremely desperate, then the
climate could change quickly. Guardian (London) and Bloomberg and Kathimerini

****
**** China speeds up its military takeover of the South China Sea
****

High-resolution satellite images reveal that in the space of ten
weeks, China has built an artificial island on top of Subi Reef in the
Spratly Islands group, with the apparent intention of building a
runway that could support virtually all types of combat and supply
aircraft in China’s navy and air force.

This is only one of three massive land reclamation projects that China
is pursuing to establish military bases in the South China Sea.

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

Lacking legal authority, what we're seeing is a frenzied military
buildup in the South China Sea with a speed, scale and intensity that
have few or no parallels in history outside of wartime. Diplomat

****
**** Vietnam and the Philippines establish a strategic military partnership to counter China
****

The Philippines and Vietnam have had minimal strategic military ties.
But the two countries are responding to China's military buildup and
belligerence in the South China Sea by establishing a "Strategic
Partnership between the Republic of the Philippines and the Socialist
Republic of Vietnam," with the agreement to be signed in May or June.
Under the agreement, the two countries will conduct joint naval drills
and scientific studies in the South China Sea, defying China's claims.
They committed to resolve differences in a "constructive manner
without resorting to the threat or use of force." Philippine Star and Council on Foreign Relations


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Eurogroup,
Yanis Varoufakis, Angela Merkel,
China, South China Sea, Philippines, Vietnam

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*** 27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The China - Pakistan love story
• China extends its military buildup with Pakistan
• Air strikes, naval shelling and ground fighting escalate in Yemen

****
**** The China - Pakistan love story
****


Xi Jinping and Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday in Islamabad (AP)

China's president Xi Jinping made a "historic" visit to Pakistan early
last week to visit prime minister Nawaz Sharif and to sign strategic
military and economic agreements between the two countries.

As the visit began, an essay by Xi appeared in Pakistan's press
describing the love affair between the two countries:

<QUOTE>"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as
if I am going to visit the home of my own brother. Over the years,
thanks to the nurturing of generations of leaders and people from
all sectors of both countries, China-Pakistan friendship has
flourished like a tree growing tall and strong. No matter how the
circumstances in our two countries, the region and the world
change, our bilateral relations have enjoyed sound and steady
growth. We have always respected, understood and supported each
other on issues concerning our respective core interests. In
Pakistan, our relationship is poetically hailed as a friendship
“higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than
honey.” In China, Pakistan is known as a sincere and reliable
friend. Obviously, China-Pakistan friendship is deeply felt in the
hearts of our two peoples."<END QUOTE>

In May 2011, Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan described the relationship between Pakistan and China
as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."

It sounds like true love to me. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** China extends its military buildup with Pakistan
****

Following last week's visit by China's president Xi Jinping, China
will deliver another 50 JF-17 Thunder aircraft to Pakistan over a
period of three years. 60 of these aircraft have already been
delivered, making a total of 110. The jets are considered a symbol of
friendship between Pakistan and China, because the technology
was developed jointly by the two countries.

This comes at a time of an accelerating military buildup by the
Chinese and their ally Pakistan. China is annexing other countries'
territories in the South China Sea, and is aggressively building military bases
in those territories.
China is building the Gwadar Port military naval base in Pakistan
on the Indian Ocean, where they can
launch missile attacks on America's base in Diego Garcia and on
American military bases and aircraft carriers in the Mideast. And
China agreed last week to build a railroad line from western China,
through Pakistan to the Gwadar Port base, to be used for both commerce
and military transport. The News (Pakistan) and Want China Times (Taiwan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)

****
**** Air strikes, naval shelling and ground fighting escalate in Yemen
****

It's been just a week since Saudi Arabia announced that it's met its military objectives in Yemen
, that "Operation Decisive Storm" was ending, and "Operation
Restoration of Hope" was beginning.

On Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition pounded several cities with
airstrikes, including the capital city Sanaa. There was heavy street
fighting, and relentless artillery, tank and heavy machine gun fire
through Taiz, Yemen's third largest city. Naval warships and
airstrikes pounded Yemen's second largest city, the port city of Aden.

Iran continues to keep a fleet of warships in the Gulf of Aden,
raising concerns that Iran is supplying weapons to the Houthis.
Reuters and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Pakistan, Xi Jinping, Nawaz Sharif,
Masood Khan, JF-17 Thunder, Gwadar Port, Diego Garcia,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sanaa, Taiz, Aden, Iran

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*** 28-Apr-15 World View -- US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands
• Japan-U.S. military guidelines will include 'collective self-defense'

****
**** US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands
****


John Kerry and Shinzo Abe in Boston on Sunday

A day before Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe visits president Barack
Obama in the White House, Secretary of State John Kerry reaffirmed
that a treaty that the United States and Japan signed in 1960 requires
the United States to defend the Senkaku Islands from an attack by
China.

According to Kerry, "Commitment to Japan's security remains ironclad
and covers all territories under Japan's administration, including the
Senkaku islands."

There has been some concern in Asia whether the Obama administration
would honor America's defense treaties. This concern increased
substantially after Obama's flip-flop on Syria, declaring that use of
chemical weapons would be a "game changed," and then backing off once
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad killed hundreds of people with Sarin
gas.

After World War II, America signed a large number of mutual defense
treaties with other countries. These include agreements with Japan,
South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with
Australia and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO
agreement with all of Europe.

Many people have question whether the administration would honor
these mutual defense treaties during an actual attack. Kerry's
statement was meant to reassure the Japanese.

China has been claiming huge territories in the South China
Sea and East China Sea that have historically belonged to other
countries. Almost no one outside of China believes that China's
claims are valid, and China is refusing to submit the claims
to the United Nations for adjudication, knowing that it would
lose.

In the South China Sea, is in the midst of a massive military buildup,
as we recently described.
However,
China has moved more cautiously with the Senkakus (called Diaoyu by
the Chinese), knowing that a military assault on the Senkakus could
provoke a direct military confrontation with the United States.
AFP

****
**** Japan-U.S. military guidelines will include 'collective self-defense'
****

Since the end of World War II, Japan and the United States have had
mutual defense treaties. However, Japan's constitution after WW II
has been a "pacifist" constitution, prohibiting any military action
except in response to a direct attack on Japan itself. This meant
that the mutual defense treaty was pretty much a one-way affair, in
that the U.S. was committed to defending Japan, but Japan could not
defend the U.S.

Prime minister Shinzo Abe has stated that he wants to remove this
restriction from the constitution, but amending the constitution
would be a difficult process, and there are many people in
Japan who would strongly oppose the change.

So in 2014, Abe made a unilateral political decision to "reinterpret"
the self-defense clause of the constitution to allow for what is
called "collective self-defense." I discussed this issue in detail in
"5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.

Under international law, if a nation's ally is attacked by another
country, then the nation may use its armed forces in defense of its
ally. This is known as "collective self-defense," and it particularly
can be invoked by either of two countries that have a mutual defense
agreement, such as the mutual defense agreement signed by Japan and
the United States. However, many people in Japan interpret the
constitution's self-defense restriction to mean that collective
self-defense is prohibited in Japan's constitution. Abe's
reinterpretation makes collective self-defense possible.

The new guidelines between Japan and the U.S. will explicitly state
that collective self-defense is allowed for both countries. Kyodo News (Japan) and Japan News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, John Kerry,
Senkaku Islands, collective self-defense, China, Diaoyu,
South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Philippines, ANZUS agreement,
Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, NATO

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Gwadar is also on the northeastern shore of the bight that leads into the Strait of Hormuz.

*** 29-Apr-15 World View -- Iran seizes cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran seizes cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
• Greece's PM Tsipras desperately seeks financial crisis solution

****
**** Iran seizes cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
****


Iranian army troops wearing ghillie camouflage suits in a parade in Tehran (CNN)

Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) has been taking
actions in the Strait of Hormuz described as "provocative" towards
commercial ships under US protection.

In Friday's incident, four Iranian patrol ships surrounded the Maersk
Kensington, a US-flagged cargo vessel, in the Strait of Hormuz. The
patrol ships harassed the Kensington for a while, and then backed
off.

In Tuesday's incident, IRGCN patrol boats fired shots at a commercial
cargo vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and then forcibly
boarded the ship and directed it to an Iranian port. The vessel was
the Maersk Tigris, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship.

In my World View article
yesterday
on the US defense agreement with Japan, I provided a list of countries
with which the US has a mutual defense treaty: Japan, South Korea,
Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with Australia
and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement
with all of Europe.

Well, today I have to add one more to the list: The Marshall Islands.
According to the State Department:

<QUOTE>"The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a
sovereign nation. While the government is free to conduct its own
foreign relations, it does so under the terms of the Compact. The
United States has full authority and responsibility for security
and defense of the Marshall Islands, and the Government of the
Marshall Islands is obligated to refrain from taking actions that
would be incompatible with these security and defense
responsibilities. The United States and the Marshall Islands have
full diplomatic relations. Marshallese citizens may work and study
in the United States without a visa, and they join the
U.S. military at a higher rate than any U.S. state."<END QUOTE>

The Marshall Islands is group of hundreds of islands northeast of
Australia in the Pacific Ocean. It hosts the US Army Kwajalein Atoll
(USAKA) Reagan Missile Test Site, a key installation in the US missile
defense network.

The US Navy is monitoring the situation, but currently plans no
further action. The U.S. believes that Iranians will "send the ship
on its way," according to an official.

It's not known why Iran seized the Tigris, though press reports give a
partial explanation that "the ship owner had some long-standing
overdue payments that it had to settle" with an Iranian company.

These incidents come at a time when there are concerns about a
possible naval confrontation in the Gulf of Aden between US ships and
Iranian warships attempting to supply weapons to Houthis in Yemen.

They also come at a time when the US and the West are close to
completing a nuclear agreement with Iran that would result in the
lifting of all sanctions, possibly immediately. The US administration
has made one concession after another to Iran so that the agreement
will be consummated, and it may be that the administration is playing
down the recent naval incidents in order to avoid provoking a crisis
that might scuttle the nuclear deal. US State Dept. and
CNN and Fars (Tehran) and Defense One

****
**** Greece's PM Tsipras desperately seeks financial crisis solution
****

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras telephoned Germany's chancellor
Angela Merkel on Sunday evening, and reports indicate that Tsipras
begged for mercy. Without an additional bailout loan, Greece will go
bankrupt in about a month. It's believed that going bankrupt will
force Greece to leave the eurozone and return to the drachma currency.

On Monday, Tsipras fired his colorful finance minister, Yanis
Varoufakis, who attended Friday's Eurogroup meeting of eurozone
finance ministers, and was accused of being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur.

No solution exists for Greece's financial crisis, and yet a way has
always been found for the Greeks and the Europeans to postpone the
final reckoning, "kicking the can down the road." The Europeans are
now desperately looking for one more postponement, but positions have
become so hardened that even a temporary solution may be impossible.

Tsipras's far-left Syriza party won January's election by promising
that he would not allow any more austerity measures to be imposed on
Greece. The Europeans have said that Greece will not get any more
bailout money without committing to a list of reforms that address
various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector,
curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and
adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

Putting such a list in writing would violate Tsipras's campaign
promises. Not putting it in writing violates Tsipras's promises to
the Europeans.

On Tuesday, Tsipras tried a different approach: if the Europeans
insisted on further austerity measures, then he would call a
referendum to see if the Greek people accept the austerity measures.
This appears to be a final desperate gasp, since there isn't enough
time for a national referendum, and even if one was held, it wouldn't
resolve the impasse with Europe.

So even a temporary kick-the-can solution would require a major
climbdown by one side or the other, and it wouldn't buy much time
anyway. Reuters and Kathimerini and Deutsche Welle


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Maersk Kensington,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, IRGCN, Maersk Tigris,
Marshall Islands, Syriza,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Yanis Varoufakis, Germany, Angela Merkel

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*** 30-Apr-15 World View -- 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war
• Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes

****
**** 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war
****


Police clash with anti-Nkurunziza protesters in Burundi's capital city, Bujumbura (AFP)

Some 20,000 people from Burundi have sought refuge in neighboring
Rwanda or Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), potentially
destabilizing the region. The violence is being triggered President
Pierre Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term in June. His
opponents say that this violates the constitution, while Nkurunziza
says that his first term doesn't count because he was appointed by the
parliament, rather than being directly elected.

The police have been shooting bullets, tear gas and water cannon, and
about ten people have been killed in four days of violence between
youthful protesters and police. The government has blocked messaging
services including Facebook, Whatsapp, Twitter and Tango, and some
radio stations have been shut down.

Burundi's last generational crisis war occurred in 1994, when 300,000
people were killed in a civil war between ethnic Hutus and Tutsis.

Most people are familiar with the massive civil war between Hutus and
Tutsis that occurred in Rwanda in 1994, killing close to a million
people. A war in neighboring Burundi occurred at roughly the same
time, though it was overshadowed by the Rwanda war.

Pierre Nkurunziza was a Hutu militia leader in the 1994 war. He was
appointed president in 2005 according to the terms of a peace
agreement, settling the 1994 civil war, and he ran unopposed and was
reelected in 2010.

The 2005 agreement specified a power-sharing arrangement for Burundi's
government, with a 60-40 split between Hutus and Tutsis, respectively.
With the Hutus in control of the government for ten years, young
Tutsis are now protesting Nkurunziza's decision to run for another
five-year term. Many people fear a return to an all-out civil war, as
in 1994, but Burundi is now in a generational Awakening era, so an
all-out civil war is impossible, although periods of brief violence
can occur at any time. AP and Radio France International and BBC

****
**** Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes
****


Physical comparison of a Tutsi, Hutu and Twa (Mount Holyoke)

There are numerous histories of the two tribes on the internet, and
most of them seem to agree that the first indigenous tribe in what are
now Rwanda and Burundi was the pigmy Twa tribe, who lived by hunting
and gathering in forests.

It's not known where the Hutus came from, but they displaced the Twa
from the 5th to the 11th century, who then moved farther into the
forest.

Let me pause here to discuss the word "displaced." The internet
histories almost make it seem like the Hutu came in, and the Twa said,
"Hi Hutu! We'll just move further into the forest to make room for
you!" In a couple of cases, the internet histories claim that all of
these tribes lived together peacefully until the white man colonists
came in the mid 1800s. This is typical of the worst of the moronic
nonsense that you find on the internet.

If the Hutu "displaced" the Twa, it would have been done by a series
of bloody, brutal generational crisis wars. And, like all
generational crisis wars, they undoubtedly involved massacres, rape,
slavery and torture. The Hutu were taller and stronger than the Twa,
and they took advantage of their greater weight and strength to smash
the Twa and take over their lands. The reason that we don't know
about these wars, or about any wars prior to the mid 1800s
colonization, is because no records were kept prior to the mid 1800s
colonization.

The same story applies to the migration of the Tutsis from southern
Ethiopia, starting in the 14th century. Once again, the Tutsis were
taller and stronger than the Hutus, and there were undoubtedly a
series of bloody, violent generational crisis wars that gave the
Tutsis control over the Hutus.

In the history of almost any country, you'll find conflicts between
farmers and herders. Farmers would be infuriated when herds of
animals (such as cattle or camels) trampled their crops. They'd
respond by building fences, and that infuriated the cowboys. There
were numerous conflicts between farmers and cowboys in America in the
1800s.

But when the farmers and herders are from two different ethnic groups,
then the conflicts over land use become the core triggers that lead
from one generational crisis war to the next one. After a
particularly bloody war, the survivors vow that nothing like that can
ever happen again, so they set up rules to prevent it. In the case of
farmers and herders, the farmers agree to set up pathways across their
lands for the herders' animals to travel, and the herders agree to
follow those pathways and not trample crops. But as decades pass, and
younger generations grow up with no personal memory of the preceding
crisis war, all the old agreements unravel, and there's a new
generational crisis war 60-80 years after the end of the last one.

In the case of the generational crisis war currently going on in the
Central African Republic, the Muslims are herders and the Christians
are farmers. In the case of the Darfur crisis war, the Sudanese
"Arabs" are herders and the "black Africans" are farmers.

In the case of the Hutus and Tutsis, the Hutus are farmers and the
Tutsis are herders. In European terms, the Tutsis became the
nobility, and the Hutus became the serfs. The relationship was called
"ubuhake," which means "to work for access to land." The Tutsi
herders controlled the land and the animal pathways. The Hutus were
given access to the land and, in return, paid taxes to the Tutsis.

When the German colonists arrived in the late 1800s, they observed
that the Tutsis were in charge and that the Hutus worked for the
Tutsis, and the Germans implemented institutions to keep it that way.
Germany colonized the region as German East Africa, which included
today's Rwanda and Burundi. Some histories say that there was a
eugenics angle to this, suggesting that the taller, stronger,
lighter-skinned Tutsis were "more European" than the Hutus, and that
they were therefore the "superior race," deserving of power and
influence.

World War I was a generational crisis war for the Hutus and Tutsis,
and when it ended, Germany lost control of German East Africa, with
control given to Belgium in 1919. The Belgians continued to make the
distinction between Tutsi and Hutu the basis of their colonial system.
Finally, we have some records of what was going on, and we can see a
typical generational Awakening era beginning in the 1930s, with the
major event being a large Hutu revolt in 1934 in Ndora, a Rwanda
farming community populated mainly by Hutu people.

What almost always happens in a country between generational crisis
civil wars is that the two groups become peaceful at the climax of the
first crisis war, but starting 15-20 years later, the youth from the
first post-war generation start rioting and committing intermittent
acts of violence. There follows decades of periods of violence
alternating with "peace agreements." Each new period of violence is
worse than the previous one.

By the 1960s, the periods of ethnic violence between the Hutus and the
Tutsis were becoming chaotic. In July 1962, the two countries Rwanda
and Burundi were formed, with Rwanda being a mostly Hutu nation, and
Burundi being a mostly Tutsi nation. In December 1963, several
hundred Tutsi guerrillas entered southern Rwanda from Burundi. The
Rwandans referred to all Tutsis as "cockroaches," and the Rwandan army
eliminate the intruders. Within days, some 14,000 Tutsis were
massacred in southern Rwanda, in a coordinated campaign described by
Bertrand Russell as 'the most horrible and systematic massacre' since
the Holocaust.

Violence and peace agreements continued to alternate. In 1993,
Rwanda's president Juvénal Habyarimana signed a peace agreement with
Tutsi leaders known as the "Arusha accords," having been signed in
Arusha, Tanzania.

The Arusha accords were never implemented. On April 6, 1994, a plane
crash killed both Burundi's president Cyprien Ntayamira and Rwanda's
president Juvénal Habyarimana. It's believed that the plane was shot
down by a missile, with the Hutus and Tutsis blaming each other for
the missile. That plane crash triggered the massive genocidal war
between the Hutus and the Tutsis, killing 300,000 people in Burundi
and close to a million people in Rwanda.

In 2005, new "Arusha Accords" were signed, this time by the people of
Burundi, to settle the 1994 war. Those accords resulting in the
creation of the 60-40 government of Hutus and Tutsis, respectively,
and the selection of former Hutu militia leader Pierre Nkurunziza as
president for two terms. His recent announcement that he will run for
a third term has triggered new violence between Hutus and Tutsis.

Today, there are fears of a major new war between the Hutus and the
Tutsis, but that's impossible at this time, because the countries are
in a generational Awakening era. There will, of course, be outbreaks
of ethnic violence, alternating with peace agreements, but nothing
like the massive war that occurred in 1994. Burundi - Conflict Profile and A History of Hutu-Tutsi Conflict and History of Hutu – Tutsi Relations and UPenn - Burundi history History of Rwanda


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Pierre Nkurunziza, Hutus, Tutsis, Twa, Darfur, Central African Republic,
ubuhake, German East Africa, Belgium, Arusha Accords, Tanzania,
Cyprien Ntayamira, Juvénal Habyarimana

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*** 1-May-15 World View -- US Navy will escort US-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan jails ten militants for Malala Yousafzai attack, but not prime suspect
• US Navy will escort US-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
• Iran's ship seizure may be a message to Saudi Arabia

****
**** Pakistan jails ten militants for Malala Yousafzai attack, but not prime suspect
****


Malala Yousafzai in Oslo in December 2014 (Reuters)

A Pakistan court has jailed 10 Taliban militants for life for
involvement in the attack on Malala Yousafzai. In 2012, Yousafzai was
shot in attack by Pakistan's Taliban that raised international
outrage. It's thought that the motive for the attack was Yousafzai's
activism for girls' education in opposition to the views of the
Taliban.

After the attack, Yousafzai was flown to the UK for treatment, where
she fully recovered. She then won the Nobel Peace Prize and became an
international spokesman for girls' education.

Pakistan was under international pressure to identify Yousafzai's
attackers and bring them to justice. Thursday's announcement was
apparently intended to satisfy those concerns.

However, instead of satisfying concerns, the announcement raised a
number of new questions. The announcement did not say when and where
the trial was held, when and where the ten men had been arrested, or
how they were linked to the attack on Yousafzai. None of the ten men
sentenced to jail participated in the actual shooting, but were
allegedly linked in some way to plotting the shooting. The ten men
did not include the principal suspects for the crime, nor the prime
suspect Ataullah Khan, a 23-year-old militant, who is now suspected of
hiding out in Afghanistan.

Many Pakistanis have mixed emotions about Yousafzai, just as they have
mixed emotions about the Taliban. According to one analyst, "It may
sound completely shocking, but many people are convinced that Malala
is some kind of Western agent who was planted to disgrace Pakistan."
The result is that many people see Thursday's convictions as a token
verdict, a way for the government to say to its international audience
that it's taking the terrorism problem seriously, but without taking
an action strong enough to upset the Pakistani people. CBS News and BBC and Public Radio International

****
**** US Navy will escort US-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
****

In a significant change in the US military posture in the Persian
Gulf, the U.S. Navy warships will now accompany US-flagged commercial
vessels that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The follows two incidents in the last week,
one on
Friday where four Iranian patrol ships harassed a US-flagged cargo
vessel, and one on Tuesday where Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps Navy (IRGCN) boarded the Maersk Tigris, a Marshall
Islands-flagged ship and forced it into an Iranian port.

Iran's media have made unsubstantiated claims that the Maersk Tigris
is a US-owned ship. In fact, it's actually owned and managed by
Hamburg-based Rickmers Ship Management. However, since the ship sails
under a Marshall Islands flag, it may be necessary for the US to
defend the ship from Iran, under a 1983 defense treaty with the
Marshall Islands. Iran is now claiming that the Maersk Tigris will be
released when Iran receives restitution for some cargo that was lost
in 2005.

According to US officials, the fear is that allowing Iran to continue
to harass and board ships could lead to a major confrontation, and
the hope is that by accompanying commercial ships, Iran will back down
rather than confront.

At any rate, it seems that the new policy would not have made any
difference to the Maersk Tigris, since it's not a US-flagged ship.
CNN and Reuters

****
**** Iran's ship seizure may be a message to Saudi Arabia
****

The alleged commercial dispute that gave rise to Iran's seizure of the
Maersk Tigris was ten years old, giving rise to the question of why
Iran chose this particular time for the seizure. In fact, according
to an analysis, it may be that this time was chosen as a signal to
Saudi Arabia to the West to expect further maritime confrontations in
the future.

One of the justifications that the US administration has been giving
for making concession after concession after concession to Iran in the
nuclear talks is the hope that Iran will completely change personality
once the agreement is signed and the sanctions are lifted. In this
fantasy, Iran starts cooperating with the West in Syria and helps
bring the Houthis to heel in Yemen.

According to the analysis, the seizure of the Tigris is one of a
series of signals that the opposite will happen: That once the
agreement is signed, and the sanctions are lifted, Iran will be
emboldened to adopt a more aggressive regional posture in the coming
years — perhaps even rolling back to the pre-1996 era, when Iran and
its proxies operated more actively against US interests in the Middle
East, culminating in the Khobar Towers bombing against American troops
in Saudi Arabia.

The US and Saudi Arabia have been sending their own messages to Iran,
by setting up an air and sea blockade around Yemen to prevent Iran
from delivering arms and supplies to the Houthis in Yemen. Just last
week, a convoy of cargo ships from Iran had attempted to run the
blockade, but was forced back by US naval ships. There was also an
Iranian attempt to land a supply plane in the airport in Yemen's
capital city Sanaa, and that attempt was also repelled. On that very
same day, Iran boarded and seized the Maersk Tigris in the Strait of
Hormuz.

With Iran provoking naval and aerial confrontations in the Persian
Gulf and over and around Yemen, the possibility of an incident that
spirals into a larger military confrontation grows every day.
Farzin Nadimi, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Malala Yousafzai, Ataullah Khan,
Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, IRGCN,
Maersk Tigris, Marshall Islands, Rickmers Ship Management,
Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Khobar Towers

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*** 2-May-15 World View -- Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam buys cruise missiles from Russia to threaten China
• China accuses Vietnam of 'double-dealing' with Russia, US
• Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China
• US requests access to Philippines military bases

****
**** Vietnam buys cruise missiles from Russia to threaten China
****


Russian media cartoon depicting friendly Russia-Vietnam relations during 1965-75, when Vietnam beat the US in the Vietnam war (RBTH)

Vietnam has purchased 50 (3M-14E Klub) supersonic cruise missiles from
Russia, to be used in its fleet of (SSK Kilo-class diesel-electric)
submarines.

There are two things about this deal. First, popular wisdom says that
China and Russia are allies, but Russia is supplying China's enemy
with advanced weapons. And second, the missiles can be used by
Vietnam against Chinese ships and Chinese land targets. Vietnam is
the first Southeast Asian nation to arm its submarine fleet with a
land attack missile.

According to one analyst, the land-attack cruise missiles mark a
"massive shift" advancing Vietnam's Navy's capabilities. "They’ve
given themselves a much more powerful deterrent that complicates
China’s strategic calculations."

As we've been reporting, China has been speeding up its military takeover of the South China Sea,

using land reclamation projects to build military bases within
territories that have historically belonged to other countries,
particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam and the Philippines
have agreed to establish a strategic military partnership to counter
China's belligerence. Vietnam last year announced that it will be
purchasing several warships from India,
and now Vietnam is taking another step, purchasing advanced
cruise missiles from Russia.

The land-attack weapons are capable of precision strikes at a range of
300 km (190 miles). Beyond China's coastal cities, potential targets
are the naval base at Sanya on China's Hainan Island, as well as any
of the military bases that China is building on reclaimed land in the
South China Sea. Reuters and Diplomat

****
**** China accuses Vietnam of 'double-dealing' with Russia, US
****

According to Chinese state media:

<QUOTE>"China doesn't want territorial and maritime
antagonism with Vietnam standing in the way of implementing
[China's regional initiatives]. Vietnam should be roped into this
grand vision.

From the angle of Hanoi, the ruling communist party is unwilling
and unable to go to extremes and launch head-on challenge against
China over territorial claims. Exercising restraints and giving a
timely handshake will ease down the tensions in the South China
Sea so that it won't risk a spillover effect affecting economic
and political interests. Vietnam desires reconciliation more than
China does.

Although led by communist parties, China and Vietnam lack
political mutual trust. Both nations have historical animosities,
but the major crux of the current distrust rests on the quandary
caused by sovereignty-related issues. ...

[With regard to Vietnam's relations with Russia and the US], Hanoi
is playing "double-dealer" without anyone who has its back, which
might eventually put itself in danger."<END QUOTE>

China's concept that Vietnam might accept China's wonderful "grand
vision" and ignore China's annexation of territories historically
belonging to Vietnam is a fantasy of the highest order. People who
write to me and give me logical reasons why China's vast military
buildup doesn't mean that China is preparing a preemptive missile
attack on the US should understand that China's massive state of
denial is as bad as that of Washington and Brussels, and leads them to
believe that they can easily win a war against anyone, including the
US. This is not a rational belief, but an emotional fantasy belief,
which is supported by many Chinese media reports that I've quoted over
the years.

China clearly dislikes Russia's improved relationships with Vietnam,
and accuses Russia of wanting to establish a base in Vietnam, which is
probably true. In 2012, China called the relationship "unrighteous,"
and rebuked Russia for preferring to cooperate with “ill-doers” over
nurturing a partnership with China. However, nothing in the
Vietnam-Russia relationship is likely to deter China's accelerating
military buildup in the South China Sea. Global Times (Beijing) and Jamestown

****
**** Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China
****

During the visit in early April of Russia's prime minister Dmitry
Medvedev to Hanoi, the two countries approved a draft military
cooperation pact formalizing bilateral defense cooperation. Although
China wasn't mentioned directly in the pact, it's clear that China is
the target.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a logical
turn of events. Russia and Vietnam have had a close relationship for
decades, and it was Russian weapons that helped Vietnam win its war
with the United States. On the other hand, Russia and China have
centuries of hatreds and crisis wars between them, as do Vietnam and
China. In fact, Russia and China were almost at war in the 1960s,
while Vietnam and China actually were at war in the late 1970s.

The common wisdom is that Russia and China are natural allies, but
nothing could be farther from the truth. It's true that Russia and
China are the two countries today that are annexing other country's
territories, as Hitler did in the late 1930s, and Russia and China
support each other in the United Nations Security Council. But that
relationship can be described as: "There's honor among thieves."

Russia recently signed a big energy deal with China to help bolster
its economy, which is wracked by low oil prices and Western sanctions.
However, many analysts have pointed out that this energy deal was a
move of desperation by Russia, which was forced to agree to sell oil
and gas to China at the lowest possible prices. So instead of being
natural allies, Russia is desperately dependent on China.

Russia points outs that it is not a direct party to the territorial
disputes in the South China Sea, but favors having the disputes
adjudicated by the appropriate United Nations maritime courts,
something that China rejects because it knows it would lose in court.

Russia's mutual defense agreement with Vietnam appears to be an
attempt to counter-balance China's influence in the region, as well as
Russia's own extreme economic dependence on China. Jamestown and Vietnam Net and Russia Beyond the Headlines

****
**** US requests access to Philippines military bases
****

The United States has asked for access to eight military bases in the
Philippines to rotate troops, aircraft, and ships, to counter China's
rapid military buildup in the South China Sea. These include bases in
Subic and Clark, from which the Philippines ejected the US in 1992.
Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vietnam, China, Dmitry Medvedev,
Philippines

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*** 3-May-15 World View -- War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad
• Economy falters, surprising economists, while stock market bubble explodes
• Financial firm analyst told to shut up about over-valued assets

****
**** War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad
****


Smoke rises from buildings due to heavy clashes between Free Syrian army fighters and Syrian government forces.

As I wrote a month ago in "8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse"
, major defeats of al-Assad's army in Idlib
and Yarmouk led to reports that the army of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad's is badly fracturing.

In the intervening month, there have been increasing reports that
al-Assad's army is in serious trouble and, at the same time, his
opposition is becoming more powerful.

The Syrian army has suffered enormous casualty rates. Reports
indicate that draft-dodging and desertions are up significantly, that
the collapse of the Syrian economy has bankrupted the government, and
that members of Assad's inner circle are fighting with one another, to
the point where Assad's political security chief was beaten to death.

At the same time, there's been a major realignment of the forces
opposing al-Assad. In the past, they have been a disorganized
collection of militias, but now they're becoming a lot more organized.
The situation was summarized in an al-Jazeera interview of Fawaz
Gerges from the London School of Economics (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"[The big difference now is] unified command.
Fighting under basically one particular leadership. Al-Nusra
Front and other radical Islamists like Kata’ib Ahrar al-Sham, are
the driver. The Free Syrian Army really plays a minor role.

And the most important element is the pivotal support that Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are providing. The first time the three
regional powers are providing fundamental support. Not just in
terms of arms, not only in terms of money, command and control,
leadership, and management of the battlefield plans. This is very
serious. While the Syrian army - what - is exhausted,
overextended, and basically does not have enough manpower to face
up to this new coalition. ...

The advent of coming to power of King Salman in Saudi Arabia has
brought about a major rapprochement between Saudi Arabia on the
one hand and Qatar and Turkey. So, the three states have joined
together to deliver a blow to the Assad regime, and they have
basically done so. Not only in Idlib and Jisr al-Shegour, a
strategic town, bordering on the major government power
base."<END QUOTE>

Gerges refers to Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) as a leading
Islamist militia, the official arm of al-Qaeda in Syria, but not the
only one. The flood of jihadists that have poured into Syria from
countries around the world have benefitted not only the Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), but also al-Nusra Front and other
Islamist militias.

The other major factor is that the three major Sunni Muslim countries
-- Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar -- are now lining up against
al-Assad. (Gerges doesn't mention Egypt.)

Gerges makes it clear that even though al-Assad's army is in trouble,
it is far from defeated. He says that this group of Islamist militias
may defeat al-Assad and then take control of Syria's government, but
this kind of outcome might take months or years of additional
fighting. Business Insider and New York Times and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Economy falters, surprising economists, while stock market bubble explodes
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.98 on May 1 (WSJ)

Analysts were shocked on when data released on Wednesday showed that
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter grew sharply
less than they had expected -- 0.2%, rather than the predicted 1%,
after rising 2.2% in the last quarter of last year.

As usual, the mainstream economists called it just a blip, nothing to
be concerned about, but if they really believed that then they
wouldn't have been shocked. The problem is that this has been going
on for years, since the 2007 credit crunch. Every time the GDP goes
up a bit, as it did in Q4, mainstream economists pull out their
macroeconomic models from the 70s, 80s, and 90s, and announce that the
economy is finally on an upsurge, and that the "Great Recession" is
finally ending. So the shock is not that they got it wrong this time,
but that they got it wrong time after time after time since 2007.

Long-time readers will recall that I used to repeatedly mock and make
fun of mainstream economists. Each quarter I would post the consensus
forecasts for growth in that quarter, and then the actual growth
figures when they came out. It was a major farce.

I always like to point out that mainstream economists didn't foresee
and still can't explain the tech bubble at the end of the 1990s, or
why it occurred at that time and not during the PC explosion of the
1980s. They didn't foresee and can't explain the Nasdaq crash in
2000, didn't foresee and can't explain the real estate and credit
bubbles of the mid-2000s, didn't foresee and can't explain the credit
crunch that began in 2007, didn't foresee and can't explain the global
financial crisis, and have gotten wrong almost every forecast since
then.

The reason that the tech bubble occurred in the late 1990s is because
that's exactly the time when the risk-averse survivors of the 1929
crash and Great Depression all disappeared (retired or died), leaving
behind the younger generations with no personal knowledge of the
dangers of debt. Generational theory can explain almost everything
that's occurred in the last 15 years, but mainstream economists never
think of this because they have a brain malfunction that keeps them
from understanding even the simplest and most obvious generational
explanation of anything. At any rate, if they want to get their
forecasts right, then they have to dig out the macroeconomic models
from the 1930s, and throw away the models from the 70s-90s, which are
irrelevant today.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (May 1) was astronomically high,
just below 21. This is far above the historical average of 14.
Furthermore, it was 18 just a year ago, indicating that the stock
market bubble is getting so large it's close to exploding.
Generational Dynamics predicts that a panic will occur, and that the
P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was
as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
3000 or lower.

So we have a continuation of their bizarre situation where the economy
is getting weaker (or, at least, not getting stronger), which causes
the Fed to pursue policies that pour billions of dollars into the
banking system, which finds its way into the stock market bubble and
into the pockets of the "top 1%." If you want to know why there are
no jobs in Baltimore and elsewhere, this is where you should be
looking. Bloomberg

****
**** Financial firm analyst told to shut up about over-valued assets
****

ZeroHedge on Saturday posted an analysis of an economic indicator, the
rejection of credit applications. This is a crucial indicator of how
the economy is doing, since if businesses are suddenly unable to get
credit, then it could lead to a severe recession, just like the credit
crunch of 2007.

What I found most interesting about the article was a portion of the
comments section. The writer submitted a report to a top manager at a
large financial firm, and in response he was essentially told to lie:

<QUOTE>"=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:01 | 6053912 Haus-Targaryen

On an aside -- I had to do a report on a couple asset classes in
the States over the past few months. I submitted it to my boss in
the States on Wednesday of last week. I laid out essentially and
irrefutably why the asset classes are horribly over-valued, most
of the barometers used to measure their value are horribly
bastardized, and why we should avoid them like the plague.

My boss sent me an email Thursday in the US around noon EST --
where he said he did not appreciate me injecting my opinions into
the report and I should try again without a biased approach. As
an example, he said I should take out the labor force
participation rate as it is a biased barometer and should use
Federal Unemployment numbers exclusively. He said I should quit
comparing the CPI to various food, energy, education and medical
care price indexes, as it presents an unfair picture of the USD's
purchasing power of these assets and should focus on the CPI
instead. He said the Baltic dry index is irrelevant and our
clients care more about equity performances, and I should take out
the BDI.

Essentially he wants to lie through my teeth to these people. I
don't know what to do, except know for a fact that, given this guy
is one of the top 5 at a firm literally everyone on here knows --
and he is considered to be a genius in his field -- we are all
beyond f--ked.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:11 | 6053919 SWCroaker

Haus, my suggestion: get over it, learn to lie. Just don't ever
start believing your own lies.

Surviving in a f'ed up situation sometimes puts the positive
aspect of retaining your head above those accrued from a moral
fight against the system. Look in history to the example of
Sophie Scholl, who (in my armchair quarterback opinion) gave her
life in protest, and thereby removed herself from the scene for
what could have been 70 years of highly successful subversion and
rebellion.

Spitting into the wind isn't all that noble in the end.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:23 | 6053941 Haus-Targaryen

This is essentially what I am doing.

"Yeup, MBS are a great and safe buy. Seriously. It's different
this time."

I am documenting this via emails to myself. Noting what egregious
bulls--t it is, and how I am being forced to do this and by who.
No one will hang this around my neck when this whole thing burns
to the ground again.

But I guess I gotta keep doing this kinda crap until I can start
making some decisions around here -- assuming we survive the next
"correction" -- which I am not sure of.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6053950 Skateboarder

Hang in there Haus, and give 'em what they want - you don't need
to feel bad. It's all lies in the end anyway. Stay true in your
heart, and live for the remaining righteous things in life. In the
days of manufactured existence, righteousness is you producing
'unmanufactured' output. Always important to remember that job =/=
work. Your work is what defines your contribution and connection
to the universe, and it can be entirely within your head.


=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:13 | 6053925 DontGive

Is this a joke? If not, my 2cents:

Keep the original report. Record/note anything he says about it.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:26 | 6053944 Haus-Targaryen

Not a joke. 100% serious. You and I were sharing a brain wave
length on that one. See my response above.


=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6053956 GRDguy

Haus-Targaryen: Yu'all in good company.

"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the
greatest liars; the men [and women] they detest most violently are
those who try to tell them the truth." H.L. Mencken (1880 – 1956)

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6053962 corporatewhore

whistleblowers and corporate truth sayers aren't held in high
regard in the corporate world. Save your ammo just to protect
yourself.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6053949 Haus-Targaryen

Yeah I know. With good enough documentation, I'll be
okay."<END QUOTE>

This kind of stuff was practically unthinkable prior to the rise of
Generation-X in the 2000s, as I wrote in my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X."

As readers know, I've frequently quoted "experts" on CNBC claiming
that stocks are undervalued, even though stock valuations (the P/E
ratio) is astronomically high. It's gotten so common that those guys
really have no idea any more whether they're lying or telling the
truth.

In the above comments, Haus-Targaryen writes, "Yeah I know. With good
enough documentation, I'll be okay." This is very naïve. The
comments make it very clear that Gen-Xers do not value the truth, and
I know from painful experience and the experience of many others that
if you can document the truth, then the Gen-Xers will really screw
you. This guy had better keep his mouth shut and do what he's told,
or he's going to be spending his days writing a blog. ZeroHedge


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Yarmouk,
Fawaz Gerges, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Kata’ib Ahrar al-Sham,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Free Syrian Army, Jisr al-Shegour,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Iran,
price/earnings ratio, stock valuations, ZeroHedge

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*** 4-May-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia denies reports of Saudi ground troops in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jimmy Carter blames Netanyahu for failure of Mideast peace negotiations
• European Union in disarray over big surge in migrants this weekend
• Saudi Arabia denies reports of Saudi ground troops in Yemen

****
**** Jimmy Carter blames Netanyahu for failure of Mideast peace negotiations
****


Jimmy Carter shakes hands with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, the West Bank, on Saturday (Reuters)

Former US president Jimmy Carter said that Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a two-state solution and never did:

<QUOTE>"I don’t believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu desires
to have the same goal achieved that all American presidents and
secretaries of state have advocated, and that is a two-state
solution. I think he made that quite clear during the campaign,
that as long as he’s in charge, there will be no two-state
solution, and therefore no Palestinian state. ...

President Obama follows the policy that every president has
followed since I’ve been in politics, that a two-state solution is
best. And my conviction is, and I would imagine that many people
in America would agree, that Netanyahu does not now, and has not
really ever, sincerely believed in a two- state solution with a
Palestinian state alongside Israel, both living in peace. ...

The end of occupation and settlement expansion that a two-state
outcome implies is, in our view, the best guarantee of Israel’s
future security and acceptance by its neighbors,” he said. “To
help achieve this goal, we feel it is high time that the countries
of Europe take a more proactive role, underpinned by a serious
financial commitment to assist in Gaza’s
reconstruction."<END QUOTE>

In 2006, Jimmy Carter's book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid"
was published. In it, he said, "Israel’s continued control and
colonization of Palestinian land have been the primary obstacles to a
comprehensive peace agreement in the Middle East." In 2002, the Nobel
Peace Prize was awarded to Jimmy Carter "for his decades of untiring
effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to
advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social
development."

President George Bush proposed the "Roadmap to Mideast Peace" that
advocated a two-state solution, a State of Palestine existing
side-by-side with a State of Israel in peace and harmony. However, As
I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", no peace plan can work
because Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be
refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel. Both Presidents Bush and
Obama have tried several times to implement the 2003 peace plan, but
have failed every time, less because of opposition by Netanyahu, and
more by the fact that the people of the West Bank, governed by the
Palestinian Authority, and the people of Gaza, governed by Hamas, hate
each other and cannot get along. Jerusalem Post and Nobel Prize

****
**** European Union in disarray over big surge in migrants this weekend
****

Over the weekend, European Union rescue boats rescued almost 6,000
migrants coming from Libya to Italy. At one point, 17 separate rescue
missions were taking place simultaneously.

The surge in the weekend's migrants was due to the warm weather and
calm seas. It's thought that the flood of migrants will continue
to increase over the summer, only leveling off in the fall with
the colder weather.

In March, EU border control executive director Fabrice Leggeri said
that, "We are told there are between 500,000 and one million migrants
ready to leave from Libya. We have to be aware of the risks." This
figure has not been independently confirmed, but it's believed that
there are at least tens of thousands of migrants in Libya queued up to
make a trip to Europe, and that hundreds of thousands of migrants will
make their way to Europe by the end of the year.

According to reports, migrant smugglers have adopted an effective new
method for transiting migrants from Libya to Europe. The smuggler
obtains a simple rubber dinghy, fills it up with migrants so that it's
dangerously loaded, and sends the dinghy out into the Mediterranean
Sea. The migrants are instructed to wait until they see a boat, and
then to slash the rubber on the dinghy so that it sinks. Government
and commercial vessels are required by international law to rescue
passengers on a sinking boat.

EU is funding an enlarged search and rescue operation in the
Mediterranean called Operation Triton. However, there is substantial
disagreement in the EU about how arriving migrants are to be
distributed among the 28 EU countries. Human rights organizations are
demanding that each EU country take a suitable percentage of the
migrants, but some countries are refusing to take any at all. UK
officials, in particular, are refusing to agree to accept any
migrants, for fear of increasing the popularity of the anti-immigrant
UK Independence Party (UKIP), which is advocating complete withdrawal
of the UK from the EU. There are similar concerns in France because
of the rise of Marine Le Pen's Front National. Guardian and Gulf News and International Business Times (6-Mar)

****
**** Saudi Arabia denies reports of Saudi ground troops in Yemen
****

According to reports from Yemen, there were helicopter gunships
hovering overhead, as at least 20 troops from a Saudi-led Arab
coalition came ashore Sunday in Yemen's southern port city of Aden.
Some officials called it a "reconnaissance" mission directed at the
Iran-backed Houthi militias that have taken control of most of Yemen.

Saudi Arabia began conducting a fierce campaign of airstrikes against
Houthi targets on March 23, ended it on April 21, and then started it
up again on April 22. The Saudis have always said that they planned
to follow up the air campaign with a ground invasion. It's thought
that Sunday's troop landing is in anticipation of the ground invasion.

The Saudi military spokesman denied that there was any troop landing
on Sunday, but he was too clever by half:

<QUOTE>"I can assure you that no [coalition] forces
disembarked on the ground in Aden today."<END QUOTE>

Analysts are pointing to his use of "today" as a weasel-word to avoid
answering the question. AP and The National (UAE) and Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jimmy Carter, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, Gaza, Hamas, Palestinian Authority,
Italy, Libya, Fabrice Leggeri, EU, Operation Triton,
UK Independence Party, UKIP,
Saudi Arabia, Yemen

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*** 5-May-15 World View -- China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy
• Philippine fishermen harassed by China's 'cabbage strategy'

****
**** China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy
****


Members of the Chinese Navy honor guard (Getty)

A new report by the US Office of Naval Intelligence reveals
a massive naval building program underway in China, with the
objective of overwhelming the US Navy.

The heart of China's current buildup in the PLA(N) (People's
Liberation Army (Navy)) is the YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship cruise
missile, with a maximum range of 111 miles at a speed of Mach 0.8 and
a higher speed range of 24 miles.

In the past, we've described China's DF-21D long-range anti-ship
ballistic missile, with the specific capability of attacking and
disabling American aircraft carriers. ( "2-Aug-11 World View -- China could defeat U.S. in war over Taiwan"
) The DF-21D is designed to travel for long
distances at high altitudes to the region of the aircraft carrier, and
then use heat sensors to detect its current position. China has
deployed about a dozen of these missiles, and some (though not all)
military analysts believe that an aircraft carrier group could
effectively defend against a simultaneous attack of several DF-21Ds.

The YJ-18 presents an aircraft carrier with an entirely different set
of problems. The YJ-18 has a much smaller range than the DF-21D, but
it's also a lot cheaper to manufacture. As a result, China can
produce hundreds of these missiles and then use them for a mass attack
on an aircraft carrier. According to one military official: "I’d be
more worried about the many dozens of cruise missiles you could have
launched at you from nearby submarines and ships than I would about
the dozen anti-ship ballistic missiles that might get launched at
you."

While America's naval fleet has been declining in size, depending on
fewer large vessels, China has been producing larger numbers of
smaller, more agile naval weapons and missile systems. According to
one expert, "Once again we confront the dilemmas of asymmetric
warfare. Missiles of all kinds are far cheaper and easier to build
than large surface warships. There is probably no air defense system
that can reliably fight off a saturation attack launched at a target
as large as a CVN [nuclear-powered aircraft carrier]."

Concerns are growing that it won't be long before China's navy is
larger than the American navy, which will be unable to defend itself.
Another expert puts it succinctly: "The heart of our navy today is the
aircraft carrier, an effective weapon. Almost all of our other surface
ships exists to serve it. That works well against third rate navies,
but in a fight against a modern naval power, our carrier fleets could
not leave port."

As I've been saying for ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
China is preparing for a massive pre-emptive missile attack on
America's cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. This might
occur next week, next week, next year, or later, This will result in a
world war that will pit the West plus Japan plus India plus Russia
plus Iran versus China plus Pakistan plus the Sunni Muslim states,
with other countries joining in on either side, in a world war that
may well last close to a decade. China is preparing for the
pre-emptive attack in the belief that they will win the war quickly,
which makes Xi Jinping and the Chinese people as stupid as Hitler and
the Nazis. History's greatest disasters are brought about by the
stupidest people, and this time the stupidest people are Xi Jinping
and Chinese, and those who survive will deeply regret their almost
unbelievable stupidity, as they go down in history as worse than the
Nazis. Office of Naval Intelligence and Free Beacon and Office of Naval Intelligence

****
**** Philippine fishermen harassed by China's 'cabbage strategy'
****

While the Naval Intelligence report on China's Navy describes China's
plans for massive attacks on American aircraft carriers with hundreds
of low-cost supersonic cruise missiles, Philippine fishermen in the
South China Sea are already being targeted by the Chinese using a
similar kind of strategy.

Philippine fishermen are being harassed more and more by Chinese
vessels in fishing grounds that the Filipinos have been using for
centuries.

China has been using what the Chinese general Zhang Zhaozhong several
years ago called a “cabbage” strategy: assert a territorial claim and
then create new facts on the ground by gradually surrounding the area
with multiple layers of security, thus denying access to a rival.

In the case of South China Sea fishing grounds, China is sending
massive numbers of fishing vessels and patrol boats into other
countries' fishing grounds. Any other country's fishing vessel is
harassed by a variety of techniques -- bullhorn warnings, blockades,
water cannons, and even violently boarding the ship and dumping its
fish cargo overboard. In this way, China expects to take over the
entire South China Sea without firing a shot.

China's Foreign Ministry recently responded to accusations that it had
illegally used water cannon on Philippine fishing boats. Filipino
fishermen said that China’s coast guard boarded their fishing boats
and threw away fish catch and fishing gear.

According to the spokesman:

<QUOTE>"Official Chinese vessels in waters near the Huangyan
island [the Philippines' Scarborough Shoal] carried out their
duties and managed the relevant waters according to law.

Recently, many Philippine fishing boats disobeyed China’s
administration and gathered illegally in Huangyan Island waters,
violating China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.

We demand that the Philippine side increase its education and
control of its fishermen, and cease all behavior that violates
China’s sovereignty and rights and interests."<END QUOTE>

What Philippines fishermen are learning is that China will use
military force to take anything it wants, and that it will not stop
any more than Hitler and the Nazis were stopped from annexing
Czechoslovakia and Poland.

When I was growing up in the 1950s, I remember asking my mother why
the World War had happened. She answered, "Because some people are
selfish and want to take things that don't belong to them." What the
Nazis did ended very badly for everyone, and so will what the Chinese
are doing. Reuters
and Project Syndicate (Nov-2013) and Philippine Star


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, People's Liberation Army (Navy), PLA(N),
YJ-18, DF-21D, Philippines, Zhang Zhaozhong,
South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Economy falters, surprising economists, while stock market bubble explodes
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.98 on May 1 (WSJ)

Analysts were shocked on when data released on Wednesday showed that
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter grew sharply
less than they had expected -- 0.2%, rather than the predicted 1%,
after rising 2.2% in the last quarter of last year.

As usual, the mainstream economists called it just a blip, nothing to
be concerned about, but if they really believed that then they
wouldn't have been shocked. The problem is that this has been going
on for years, since the 2007 credit crunch. Every time the GDP goes
up a bit, as it did in Q4, mainstream economists pull out their
macroeconomic models from the 70s, 80s, and 90s, and announce that the
economy is finally on an upsurge, and that the "Great Recession" is
finally ending. So the shock is not that they got it wrong this time,
but that they got it wrong time after time after time since 2007.

Long-time readers will recall that I used to repeatedly mock and make
fun of mainstream economists. Each quarter I would post the consensus
forecasts for growth in that quarter, and then the actual growth
figures when they came out. It was a major farce.

I always like to point out that mainstream economists didn't foresee
and still can't explain the tech bubble at the end of the 1990s, or
why it occurred at that time and not during the PC explosion of the
1980s. They didn't foresee and can't explain the Nasdaq crash in
2000, didn't foresee and can't explain the real estate and credit
bubbles of the mid-2000s, didn't foresee and can't explain the credit
crunch that began in 2007, didn't foresee and can't explain the global
financial crisis, and have gotten wrong almost every forecast since
then.

The reason that the tech bubble occurred in the late 1990s is because
that's exactly the time when the risk-averse survivors of the 1929
crash and Great Depression all disappeared (retired or died), leaving
behind the younger generations with no personal knowledge of the
dangers of debt. Generational theory can explain almost everything
that's occurred in the last 15 years, but mainstream economists never
think of this because they have a brain malfunction that keeps them
from understanding even the simplest and most obvious generational
explanation of anything. At any rate, if they want to get their
forecasts right, then they have to dig out the macroeconomic models
from the 1930s, and throw away the models from the 70s-90s, which are
irrelevant today.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (May 1) was astronomically high,
just below 21. This is far above the historical average of 14.
Furthermore, it was 18 just a year ago, indicating that the stock
market bubble is getting so large it's close to exploding.
Generational Dynamics predicts that a panic will occur, and that the
P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was
as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
3000 or lower.

So we have a continuation of their bizarre situation where the economy
is getting weaker (or, at least, not getting stronger), which causes
the Fed to pursue policies that pour billions of dollars into the
banking system, which finds its way into the stock market bubble and
into the pockets of the "top 1%." If you want to know why there are
no jobs in Baltimore and elsewhere, this is where you should be
looking. Bloomberg

****
**** Financial firm analyst told to shut up about over-valued assets
****

ZeroHedge on Saturday posted an analysis of an economic indicator, the
rejection of credit applications. This is a crucial indicator of how
the economy is doing, since if businesses are suddenly unable to get
credit, then it could lead to a severe recession, just like the credit
crunch of 2007.

What I found most interesting about the article was a portion of the
comments section. The writer submitted a report to a top manager at a
large financial firm, and in response he was essentially told to lie:

<QUOTE>"=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:01 | 6053912 Haus-Targaryen

On an aside -- I had to do a report on a couple asset classes in
the States over the past few months. I submitted it to my boss in
the States on Wednesday of last week. I laid out essentially and
irrefutably why the asset classes are horribly over-valued, most
of the barometers used to measure their value are horribly
bastardized, and why we should avoid them like the plague.

My boss sent me an email Thursday in the US around noon EST --
where he said he did not appreciate me injecting my opinions into
the report and I should try again without a biased approach. As
an example, he said I should take out the labor force
participation rate as it is a biased barometer and should use
Federal Unemployment numbers exclusively. He said I should quit
comparing the CPI to various food, energy, education and medical
care price indexes, as it presents an unfair picture of the USD's
purchasing power of these assets and should focus on the CPI
instead. He said the Baltic dry index is irrelevant and our
clients care more about equity performances, and I should take out
the BDI.

Essentially he wants to lie through my teeth to these people. I
don't know what to do, except know for a fact that, given this guy
is one of the top 5 at a firm literally everyone on here knows --
and he is considered to be a genius in his field -- we are all
beyond f--ked.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:11 | 6053919 SWCroaker

Haus, my suggestion: get over it, learn to lie. Just don't ever
start believing your own lies.

Surviving in a f'ed up situation sometimes puts the positive
aspect of retaining your head above those accrued from a moral
fight against the system. Look in history to the example of
Sophie Scholl, who (in my armchair quarterback opinion) gave her
life in protest, and thereby removed herself from the scene for
what could have been 70 years of highly successful subversion and
rebellion.

Spitting into the wind isn't all that noble in the end.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:23 | 6053941 Haus-Targaryen

This is essentially what I am doing.

"Yeup, MBS are a great and safe buy. Seriously. It's different
this time."

I am documenting this via emails to myself. Noting what egregious
bulls--t it is, and how I am being forced to do this and by who.
No one will hang this around my neck when this whole thing burns
to the ground again.

But I guess I gotta keep doing this kinda crap until I can start
making some decisions around here -- assuming we survive the next
"correction" -- which I am not sure of.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6053950 Skateboarder

Hang in there Haus, and give 'em what they want - you don't need
to feel bad. It's all lies in the end anyway. Stay true in your
heart, and live for the remaining righteous things in life. In the
days of manufactured existence, righteousness is you producing
'unmanufactured' output. Always important to remember that job =/=
work. Your work is what defines your contribution and connection
to the universe, and it can be entirely within your head.


=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:13 | 6053925 DontGive

Is this a joke? If not, my 2cents:

Keep the original report. Record/note anything he says about it.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:26 | 6053944 Haus-Targaryen

Not a joke. 100% serious. You and I were sharing a brain wave
length on that one. See my response above.


=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6053956 GRDguy

Haus-Targaryen: Yu'all in good company.

"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the
greatest liars; the men [and women] they detest most violently are
those who try to tell them the truth." H.L. Mencken (1880 – 1956)

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6053962 corporatewhore

whistleblowers and corporate truth sayers aren't held in high
regard in the corporate world. Save your ammo just to protect
yourself.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6053949 Haus-Targaryen

Yeah I know. With good enough documentation, I'll be
okay."<END QUOTE>

This kind of stuff was practically unthinkable prior to the rise of
Generation-X in the 2000s, as I wrote in my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X."

As readers know, I've frequently quoted "experts" on CNBC claiming
that stocks are undervalued, even though stock valuations (the P/E
ratio) is astronomically high. It's gotten so common that those guys
really have no idea any more whether they're lying or telling the
truth.

In the above comments, Haus-Targaryen writes, "Yeah I know. With good
enough documentation, I'll be okay." This is very naïve. The
comments make it very clear that Gen-Xers do not value the truth, and
I know from painful experience and the experience of many others that
if you can document the truth, then the Gen-Xers will really screw
you. This guy had better keep his mouth shut and do what he's told,
or he's going to be spending his days writing a blog. ZeroHedge


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Yarmouk,
Fawaz Gerges, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Kata’ib Ahrar al-Sham,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Free Syrian Army, Jisr al-Shegour,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Iran,
price/earnings ratio, stock valuations, ZeroHedge

Permanent web link to this article
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The economy's growth factors have been ebbing now for quite a while.

What are some of those growth factors?

- A viable middle class that is at least holding its own if not growing.
- A monetary policy for all Americans not one narrowly tailored to help securities investors and free trade obsessives.
- Strong vertically integrated manufacturing industries employing Americans in all levels of the supply chain.
- Fecundity amongst the 60%ers (both domestically and globally)

None of the above factors are heading in the correct direction. Therefore, there is nothing to increase wealth other than those who win gambling in securities markets. That is a pathetic basis for a national economy.

*** 6-May-15 World View -- In a surprise, Senegal joins a beleaguered Saudi coalition in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In a surprise, Senegal joins a beleaguered Saudi coalition in Yemen
• Pakistan and Saudi Arabia appear to reconcile over Yemen
• 'Saudi troops' landing in Aden were really Yemeni troops

****
**** In a surprise, Senegal joins a beleaguered Saudi coalition in Yemen
****


Aftermath of Saudi airstrike on Sanaa airport on Monday (Reuters)

In a surprise announcement, Senegal's foreign minister on Monday said
that the country will be send 2,100 troops to Saudi Arabia as part of
an international coalition fighting against the Houthis in Yemen.

Since Saudi Arabia has not yet committed ground troops to Yemen, it's
not clear what the Senegalese troops will be doing.

According to the foreign minister, "The international coalition is
aiming to protect and secure the holy sites of Islam, Medina and
Mecca." These two cities in Saudi Arabia are heavily guarded by Saudi
troops, and so the implication is that the Senegalese troops will
guard the two cities, freeing up the Saudi troops. This would mean
that Senegal is stationary guards, rather than the combat troops that
the Saudis really need.

The reason that Senegal's announcement was a surprise is that Senegal
is on the west coast of Africa, which is many, many worlds away from
Yemen, which is east of the east coast of Africa. Furthermore, many
young people in Senegal are against sending Senegalese to far-away
foreign wars, particularly since the cities of Mecca and Medina do not
appear to be threatened by the Houthis in Yemen. However, Senegal
depends on aid from Saudi Arabia, and so this is a way to suck up.
BBC
and Washington Post

****
**** Pakistan and Saudi Arabia appear to reconcile over Yemen
****

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia now has a number of countries in its
coalition: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan,
Senegal.

These countries are contributing warplanes to the effort, but none of
these countries has agreed to send combat troops to Yemen, and two of
the major Sunni Muslim countries, Pakistan and Turkey, are missing
from the list.

Saudi Arabia received a particularly harsh blow a month ago, when
Pakistan's parliament passed a resolution calling on the government to
remain neutral between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Yemen conflict.

As we reported at the time,
the
repercussions began immediately, beginning with a blistering
condemnation by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). There are two million
Pakistanis living in Saudi Arabia, and they contribute $4.73 billion
per year to Pakistan through remittances, so there have been
widespread fears of retaliation directed at Pakistanis working in the
Kingdom.

However, Pakistan's top civil and military leadership met with Saudi
authorities last week, and the two countries appeared to reconcile.
According to the statement, "Saudi Arabia’s next move in the region,
including any possible offensive, will materialize only after mutual
consultation." What this means is that if the Saudis want Pakistan's
help, then they should consult with Pakistan and get mutual agreement
before taking any action.

Based on that commitment, Pakistan has reversed its earlier stance of
neutrality, and will provide military assistance. According to the
statement:

<QUOTE>"All the matters between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
over the Yemen war have been settled amicably. ... Without ground
operations, no one can establish the government’s writ in the
conflict zone. ...

Pakistan cannot remain a bystander if efforts are made to
destabilize Saudi Arabia."<END QUOTE>

However, it's not clear whether Pakistan will provide combat troops,
as Pakistan is promising only to provide military assistance,
including equipment for fighting in the tribal areas of Yemen.

The only public mention of Pakistani troops was related to the
reinstatement of Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who was president at the time
of the Houthis' coup. "They also talked about the Pakistani armed
forces’ role in Yemen after Hadi is [properly] reinstated," according
to the statement. Not mentioned is the fact that reinstatement of
Hadi may not occur at all, or not before additional months of
fighting. Gulf Times and Foreign Policy

****
**** 'Saudi troops' landing in Aden were really Yemeni troops
****

Reports over the weekend said that Saudi troops had landed in the southern port of Aden.

The Saudis now say that those are Yemeni troops who were returning to
Yemen from Gulf Arab countries where they had been retrained for
combat. According to the Yemen government in exile in Riyadh: "It's a
group of the Yemeni forces. We retrained them, and we send them to
organize things. We are now training more, and we are sending more."
Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sengal, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Mecca, Medina,
Pakistan, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi

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*** 7-May-15 World View -- Greece tries to avoid bankruptcy, as Europe stands firm, for now

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece makes one debt payment, wonders if it can make the next
• Europeans reject more bailout money for Greece, for now
• Jean-Claude Jüncker warns of Anglo-Saxon threat to eurozone

****
**** Greece makes one debt payment, wonders if it can make the next
****


Greece's Port of Piraeus

Greece's government apparently succeeded in making a 200 million euro
interest payment due on Wednesday. It did so by scraping up money
wherever it could. In particular, it passed a law on April 25 giving
it the right to confiscate cash reserves and bank accounts of all public institutions,
including
municipalities, provinces, universities and hospitals.

Greece is scheduled to make two additional payments this month,
totaling close to one billion euros.

Having confiscated money from public institutions, it's getting pretty
clear that the next step will be private businesses and individual
residents. In fact, the first step may occur within days, after the
government revealed plans to introduce a surcharge on cash withdrawals
from bank accounts. The European Central Bank (ECB) will have to
approve the measure, but the surcharge is expected to be one euro for
every thousand euro transaction.

A senior finance ministry official said, "The surcharge is just one of
a grab-bag of measures we are considering if things get tough."

The next "grab-bag" measure is expected to be what are called "capital
controls" -- limiting the amount of money that can be transferred to
banks outside the country. Many panicking Greek citizens have already
completely cleared out their bank accounts, pulling more than 28
billion euros out of banks. Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Europeans reject more bailout money for Greece, for now
****

Positions continue to be very hard on both sides of the negotiations
to provide additional bailout money to Greece. Greek officials
continue to stall on providing a list of committed reforms that was
promised in February. The list would need to address various economic
issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion
and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous
pension and minimum wage policies. Instead, Greek officials continue
to make vague promises about collecting more taxes and ending
corruption. As a result, more bailout money is out of the question,
for now.

On Tuesday, Greek officials accused the lending institutions -- the
European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), formerly known as "the Troika" --
of being at fault: "Serious disagreements between the IMF and the EU
are creating obstacles and big risks in the negotiations."

This infuriated Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who
said, "Neither the troika, nor Europe, nor Germany can be blamed for
Greece's problems. Greece lived beyond its means for many years."

However, there apparently is a big disagreement within the Troika.
The IMF wants the Troika to simply write off a large percentage of
Greek debt, while the EC is opposed such debt relief. Kathimerini and ZeroHedge and Bloomberg

****
**** Jean-Claude Jüncker warns of Anglo-Saxon threat to eurozone
****


Jean-Claude Jüncker in 2005, shaking his fist at British prime minister Tony Blair (BBC)

European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker said that "Grexit"
-- meaning Greece exiting the eurozone -- is not an option, because it
would be part of an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy. According to Jüncker:

<QUOTE>"The world wants to know which way we are going. We
should make sure that everyone understands that the economic and
monetary union is irreversible, that the euro is a currency that
is here to stay, which is not going to be abolished or
suspended. ...

Grexit is not an option. If Greece would accept it, if the others
would accept it, that the country would exit the zone of security
and prosperity constituted by the eurozone, we would be exposed to
huge danger, because the Anglo-Saxon world would do everything to
try to decompose, at a regular rhythm, by (the) sale, apartment by
apartment, of the eurozone."<END QUOTE>

Long-time readers know that when Jüncker was chairman of the Eurogroup
of eurozone financial ministers I used to mock him and make fun of him
all the time because of all the ridiculous things he said during the
various Greek financial crises. The topper occurred in 2011 when
journalists caught him in a complete lie, and he said, When it becomes serious, you have to lie,
to explain why he lied. From that point on, we could always
assume that everything he said was a lie, since everything was always
serious.

I haven't quoted Jüncker for a while, ever since he stopped being
Eurogroup chairman, so it's fun to have him back again saying moronic
things about an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy to break up the eurozone.
EurActiv


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, European Central Bank, ECB,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, European Commission, EC, Troika,
Wolfgang Schaeuble, Jean-Claude Jüncker, Grexit, Eurogroup

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*** 8-May-15 World View -- Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Anti-government riots and violence increase in Burundi
• Concerns over an all-out crisis civil war in Burundi are misplaced
• Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan

****
**** Anti-government riots and violence increase in Burundi
****


A Hutu youth who escaped a Tutsi mob by hiding in the sewer on Thursday begs for mercy from Burundi soldiers (CNN)

Hundreds of college students in Bujumbura, Burundi's capital city, are
demonstrating against president Pierre Nkurunziza, because he plans to
run for a third term as president, apparently violating the
constitution. Nkurunziza became president in 2005 when a new
constitution was adopted, and he was re-elected as president in 2010.
The constitution restricts anyone from more than two terms, but
Nkurunziza now says he'll run for a third term, claiming that the
first term doesn't count because he was appointed, not elected. His
announcement has triggered large anti-government protests, violence
and a couple of deaths, ahead of the election in June.

Burundi is right next door to Rwanda, and was part of the massive
genocidal civil war between Hutus and Tutsis in 1994 that killed
almost a million people in just three months. (See my "Generational
history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes" in my April 30 report on the Burundi violence.
)

The renewed violence is frightening a lot of people, who fear that it
will spiral into a renewal of the 1994 war between Hutus and Tutsis.
Some 400,000 people have already fled from Burundi into refugee camps
in neighboring countries, mostly Rwanda.

The fact that Nkurunziza is running for a third term is already a very
bad sign. Burundi's Constitutional Court issued a ruling that the
third term was legal, but one of the judges had to flee the country,
claiming that the Nkurunziza administration had threatened the court
unless they supported him.

And Nkurunziza is promising that if he wins a third term, then he
won't run for a fourth term. This is completely laughable, as he's
currently breaking earlier promises not to run for a third term. And
anyone who's ever believed in a politician in the past is quickly
aware that such promises are completely worthless. CNN and AP

****
**** Concerns over an all-out crisis civil war in Burundi are misplaced
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're witnessing
here is a common pattern that occurs frequently after a country that
goes through a crisis civil war. A new generation has grown up since
1994, putting Burundi into a generational Awakening era. And what
frequently happens at these times is that people panic at any sign of
violence for fear that the crisis civil war will be repeated.

Once of the most interesting examples of this occurred in ancient Rome
in 49 BC, when Julius Caesar "crossed the Rubicon River" with his
army, triggering a brief civil war. There's historical evidence that
the people of Rome panicked, because they feared a repeat of the
extremely bloody "Social War" of the Italian allied states that
occurred from 91-87 BC. All of Italy was devastated, and over 100,000
people were killed.

The irony is that the panic is completely misguided, because a new
crisis civil war during a generational Awakening era is impossible.
The reason is the same reason why people panic -- there are plenty of
traumatized survivors of the previous crisis civil war, and they have
been devoting their lives to making sure that nothing like that
happens again -- and nothing like that does happen again as long as
those survivors are alive and in power. It's only decades later, when
they retire or die, that a new crisis civil war can begin.

Contrast what's happening in Burundi to the situation in the Central
African Republic (CAR), where a true crisis civil war is in progress.
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis era, making a new crisis
war inevitable. Here's how Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors
without Borders) described the current situation:

<QUOTE>"We have seen some areas where all there is are burnt
houses. People are hiding in the forest afraid of the presence of
armed groups. There are no security forces or actors providing
healthcare. People are living in very dire conditions that could
get worse at any moment if the insecurity persists. On top of
that, the rainy season is about to start and people living in
forests are completely exposed to harsh weather. Villagers even
risk their houses being destroyed if they cannot come home soon to
prepare them for the heavy rains to come. What we are seeing here
is an example of the situation that hundreds of thousands of
people suffer in CAR every day: a terrible mix of violence,
displacement and a lack of access to even basic
healthcare."<END QUOTE>

CAR is a huge country, and this kind of violence has been going on
across the entire country for over two years, with no end in sight.
The violence in Burundi isn't nearly as bad and is highly localized,
and has only been going on for a few weeks.

The violence going on in Burundi now is very similar to America's last
Awakening era, the 1960s. You had "long hot summers" and massive
riots in Los Angeles, Chicago and other cities, and you had the
Weather Underground setting off bombs. There were people, especially
older people who had seen what happened in other countries in World
War II, who were predicting that America could spiral into violence,
possibly into a civil war. Of course that didn't happen, and can't
happen during a generational Awakening era.

So the fears of another massive civil war between the Hutus and Tutsis
at this time are misplaced. That doesn't mean that that the people of
Burundi have nothing to fear. A civil war may not last years, but it
might last a few weeks or months. Also, the president Nkurunziza may
follow the wonderful example of Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe,
who has been consistently reelected for 40 years by sending his army
out to kill, torture, rape, dismember or massacre anyone who opposes
him. ( "17-Apr-15 World View -- South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre"
)

Nkurunziza is a Hutu, and he may follow Mugabe's example and send the
army out to torture and kill the Tutsis. The foundations for this
outcome have already been laid. Daily Maverick (S. Africa) and CS Monitor

****
**** Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan
****

Fears continue to grow throughout Central Asia of an alliance between
the Taliban and Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in
Afghanistan, as I described early last month.
An alliance between the two militant groups faces many
obstacles. Although both groups are simply thugs, the doctrines they
claim to follow are significantly different, with ISIS following a
strict form of Salafi-Takfiri Islam from Saudi Arabia, while the
Afghan Taliban are mostly followers of Deobandi Islam based in South
Asia. Furthermore, they have different geopolitical objectives, with
ISIS claiming to lead a worldwide caliphate, and the Taliban's
interested focused on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

However, in the Afghan province of Kunduz, it appears that the Taliban
and ISIS have buried their differences enough to work together. The
evidence is from an examination of dead bodies of militants fighting
security forces in Kunduz. Many of the fighters are foreigners,
including some women from Chechnya, and some villages under rebel
control are flying both the white flag of the Taliban and the black
flag of ISIS.

The Afghan Taliban would welcome ISIS if they worked with the Taliban
in the way as other militant groups, including al-Qaeda,
Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban), and Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU). These groups are free to pursue their own agendas
as long as they do not interfere with Taliban affairs and sometimes
assist as requested. But instead of cooperating with the Taliban,
ISIS may compete with the Taliban in Afghanistan, leading to possible
violence between the two groups. Public Radio International and The Diplomat and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Rwanda, Hutus, Tutsis, Pierre Nkurunziza,
Rome, Julius Caesar, Social War, Rubicon River,
Central African Republic, Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Afghanistan, Kunduz,
Afghan Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, Chechnya

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Once of the most interesting examples of this occurred in ancient Rome
in 49 BC, when Julius Caesar "crossed the Rubicon River" with his
army, triggering a brief civil war.

Yeah, sure, only four years. The Republic totally survived.

*** 9-May-15 World View -- Britain's surprise election and Chaos Theory

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's polling organizations fail disastrously
• Pre-election polls and Chaos Theory
• British and Israeli elections reflected nationalistic surges
• Trends in American politics

****
**** Britain's polling organizations fail disastrously
****


Paddy Ashdown promises to eat his own hat, even though he isn't wearing a hat. He still hasn't kept his promise.

I watched a lot of the live coverage of the British election on the
BBC on Thursday. My favorite moment, and the favorite moment of a lot
of other people, occurred just after the election ended, and the exit
polls were announced, indicating that David Cameron's Conservative
Party (Tories) had unexpectedly won an overwhelming victory. At this
point, the leader of the Liberal Democrat party said that the
announced exit poll results were completely impossible, and that they
contradicted not only the Liberal Democrats' private polling, but also
every other poll, and he added:

<QUOTE>"If this poll is correct I will publicly eat my hat on
your program."<END QUOTE>

Ashdown wasn't wearing a hat when he said that, but it caused great
hilarity, and all the commentators offered him their hats.

This dramatizes what a total failure the pre-election polls had been.
I can't recall any polling disaster ever being this bad. (On the
evening of the 2004 presidential election, I originally wrote that
"exit polls this evening show that
John Kerry will be the next president," and I later had to add an
update that the exit polls now show Bush is leading.)

For weeks, pollsters had been predicting that Cameron and his
principal opponent, Labor Party leader Ed Miliband, were so close in
the polls that neither party would be able to form a government
without weeks of negotiating with smaller parties. Even as late as
Thursday morning, commentators were saying that the election would be
historic because there would be no clear victory, and it would take
weeks to form a government.

So it's not surprising that Ashdown simply didn't believe the exit
polls. A lot of other people didn't either, until the actual election
results started coming in from the various constituencies, confirming
that the exit polls had been right.

By the way, despite a "#paddyashdownhat" twitter campaign, Ashdown so
far has refused to eat any hats, and his opponents are joking that
he's just another politician breaking a promise. Independent (London) and Daily Express (London)

****
**** Pre-election polls and Chaos Theory
****

Many people believe that weather forecasting will get better and
better, as the science of meteorology and computer models improve.
And yet, weather forecasting has gotten only slightly more accurate
than it was in the 1960s. It was in the 1960s that Chaos Theory was
first developed, and showed that weather forecasting will never
improve much, because it was mathematically impossible to improve it
more than slightly. That's why there will always be surprise rain and
snowstorms.

The same is true of election forecasting, whether by pre-election
polls, or by any other method. Chaos theory also applies to election
forecasting, so there will always be surprise upsets in elections.

Long-time readers are aware that I've written thousands of articles
containing hundreds of Generational Dynamics predictions since I
started in 2003, and all of those predictions have turned out to be
right. But there has never been a prediction about an election.
That's because the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology
forbids attempting to predict any "chaotic event," an event that Chaos
Theory says cannot be predicted.

Examples of "chaotic events" are election results, whether it will
rain next week, whether stock prices will rise or fall in the next
hour, when a panic will occur, when the stock market bubble will
burst. The Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology very
carefully avoids trying to forecast any chaotic events.

Generational Dynamics forecasts "trend events." The methodology is to
look at long term behaviors and attitudes of entire populations or
entire generations, and compare them to historical behaviors and
attitudes at similar generational eras in the past. Examples of
forecasted trend events that I've repeated frequently are: a war
between Jews and Arabs re-fighting the 1948 war that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel; a
pre-emptive missile attack by China on the United States; a world war
in which the US, Iran and Russia will be allies. The exact details of
how these predictions would come about, such as the Arab Awakening and
the rise of ISIS, could not be predicted, but the overall trend could
be predicted.

For those interested in more information, see the following: Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology (PDF)

****
**** British and Israeli elections reflected nationalistic surges
****

One of the trends that I've been describing for years is that when a
country goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, as most are today,
then they show increased nationalism and xenophobia.

The British election is being widely described as a victory for
British nationalism. David Cameron emphasized highly nationalistic
themes during his campaign: keeping illegal immigrants out of Britain;
holding a referendum in 2017 on Britain leaving the European Union; a
stronger and more united United Kingdom. These nationalistic themes
clearly appealed to British voters so much that even the highly
nationalistic UK Independence Party (UKIP) did poorly.

Some people may challenge the above analysis by pointing out that
David Cameron's victory was a right-wing victory propelled by English
voters, in contrast to overwhelming left-wing election victories in
Scotland. (The United Kingdom is made up of four formerly independent
nations: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.)

However, nationalism is not exclusively right-wing. Extreme
nationalism can be Fascist or it can be Communist. In the case of
Scotland, the victory was of the far-left Scottish Nationalist Party
(SNP) which, as the name implies, is highly nationalist. But in
Scotland, the nationalism is for Scotland, while in England, the
nationalism is for all of Britain.

The victory of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party in Israel's March
elections has a number of similarities to the British election.
Netanyahu emphasized nationalistic themes in his campaign, saying such
things as "If we don’t close the gap, there is a real danger that a
left-wing government will rise to power," with the implication that
the left-wing government would surrender to the Palestinians. In both
cases, the pre-election polls were quite wrong, missing the
nationalistic turn of the electorate, so that the final election
returns were a surprise to everyone.

In the case of Britain, many pundits are saying that the election
results show that England and Scotland are very different places.
I wrote about this last year
in
the context of Scotland's independence referendum.

Many people from Scotland speak with pride about the great victory of
the Scottish forces over superior English forces in the Battle of
Bannockburn, on June 24, 1314, the climax of the First War of Scottish
Independence. Scotland and England fought many wars after that,
including the War of the Roses (1459-87), and the Armada war with
Spain (1588). The most explosive war that followed Scottish
independence was the English Civil War (1640-49), that climaxed with
the beheading of the English King in 1649. Scotland was only brought
to heel in 1707, when England and Scotland signed the "Acts of Union"
between the two countries. Now, 308 years later, the people of
Scotland are still talking about independence, and last week's
election has reinforced those attitudes. Independent (London) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post (18-March)

****
**** Trends in American politics
****

Jerusalem Post political editor Gil Hoffman was interviewed last week
on al-Jazeera, and was asked whether Benjamin Netanyahu's political
coalition would be able to improve relations with the United States.
Here's his response (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Relations with the United States people are
wonderful. The polls have recently found that the American people
see Israel as one of their closest allies. Both Democratic and
Republican parties and all of their candidates for president have
good relations with Israel.

There's a problem with the current president of the United States,
who will only be in office for another 19 months. He has a
problem with Israel, he has a problem with Arab and Muslim
countries, he's turned off people throughout this region, and soon
he will be gone, and things will be better."<END QUOTE>

It is quite remarkable. When Barack Obama became president, we had
good relations with most Mideast countries, except Iran. Obama has
been pissing off officials in one country after another, and his "red
line" flip-flop after Syria's president Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas
on his own people has been particularly damaging. As far as Iran is
concerned, Iranian leaders have no respect for Obama, and continually
mock and insult him and America in their speeches.

However, Hoffman is wrong when he says, "things will be better." As
I've said many dozens of times, it's a basic principle of Generational
Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are
determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not
by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions
reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so
politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history.

When Barack Obama first took office, I said that it made no difference
what he said or did, the outcome of his presidency would be no
different than if George Bush had a third term.

Time has proven that to be true. Obama promised to close Guantanamo,
and it's still open. He promised to cure global warming, and all his
attempts have been farces. He promised to withdraw from Iraq, and he
did that, but now he's back again. He promised to beat the Taliban in
Afghanistan, and he's failed at that. He promised to bring a
two-state peace solution to Palestinians and Israelis, and every
attempt has been a disaster. He promised to dismantle President
Bush's "war against terror," but now the rise of ISIS means that the
war on terror is far from over. In terms of outcomes, Obama and Bush
are pretty much identical.

As Hoffman said, Obama will be gone in 19 months, and there will be a
new president, a Republican or a Democrat. But nothing will change.
The Mideast will still be headed for war between Jews and Arabs (or
the war may already have begun), and China will still be rapidly
militarizing in preparation for a massive missile attack on the United
States (or the missile attack may already have occurred).


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, Conservative Party,
Paddy Ashdown, Liberal Democrat Party, Ed Miliband, Labor Party,
Chaos Theory, Israel, Palestine, China, Iran,
UK Independence Party, UKIP,
England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Battle of Bannockburn, Gil Hoffman

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Technically, Charles I was the Scottish king.

*** 10-May-15 World View -- Yemen war sharply intensifies, as 'truce' is offered.

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Rohingya 'death camps' and 'slave camps' found in southern Thailand
• Yemen war sharply intensifies, as 'truce' is offered.

****
**** Rohingya 'death camps' and 'slave camps' found in southern Thailand
****


Suspected ethnic Rohingya migrants, who were rescued by Thai officials from a jungle (Asia News Network)

In 2012 and 2013, we reported several times on massive slaughter by
Buddhists of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar (Burma), led by Buddhist monk
Ashin Wirathu. The violence left hundreds dead, and 140,000 homeless.
( "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
)

At that time, it was clear that thousands of Rohingya families were
fleeing for their lives from the Buddhists, though it wasn't entirely
clear where they were going.

It's now become more clear what happened to them, with the discovery
of "death camps" and "slave camps" in southern Thailand.

Thousands attempted to flee to various countries, including
Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia and China. Those with money could be transported to
safer locations.

Many of them reached Thailand by cargo ships, and then attempted to
travel south to Malaysia, where they could obtain work. But many of
them didn't make it. According to one expert, "In remote jungle camps
in Thailand, transnational criminal networks are beating and torturing
their captives in an attempt to extract ransom payments from their
families and friends." Those failing to pay ransom are sold to the
fishing industry as slave labor or forced to work in the jungle camps.

Many of them starved to death or were simply killed, and dumped into
mass graves. Within the last few weeks, some of these mass graves
have been discovered, along with the slave labor camps where the
others worked. There are reports of similar camps in Malaysia.
Bangkok Post and Straits Times (Singapore) and Nation (Myanmar)

****
**** Yemen war sharply intensifies, as 'truce' is offered.
****

Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday a significant escalation of its
attacks on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The escalation was
triggered by Houthi cross-border artillery attacks on villages on the
Saudi side of the border, forcing the Saudis to close schools and
hospitals, and evacuate some villages. This was described as a "red
line" by the Saudis.

The Saudis announced on Friday that the entire province of Sadaa would
be considered a "military target," and subject to air strikes. Sadaa
is in north Yemen, right on the border with Saudi Arabia, and is the
stronghold of the ethnic Houthis.

Before blanketing Sadaa with airstrikes, the Saudis dropped leaflets
warning civilians to leave the area by Friday evening. They were
given only 2-3 hours' notice. Because of the war, there are shortages
of gasoline/petrol for cars and buses, so many Houthi civilians are
trying to escape the airstrikes by walking. However, thousands of
civilians have no place to go anyway.

The Saudis say that on Friday and Saturday, there were 130 airstrikes
at 100 sites, targeting tanks, command centers, military vehicles, and
weapons stores. Some of the airstrikes targeted hospitals and
schools, because they were being used as ammunition depots, according
to the Saudis.

The Saudis proposed a five-day ceasefire, to begin on Tuesday,
"provided that the Houthis agree that there will be no bombing, no
shooting, no movement of their troops or maneuvering to reposition for
military advantage, no movement of heavy weapons." Under those
conditions, the ceasefire could be renewed after five days.

However, previous ceasefire proposals demanded that the Houthis must
first withdraw from the cities they're occupying. Thus, the new Saudi
proposal represents a significant change of position, and the Houthis
view this as a significant sign of weakness.

According to analysts, the Houthis believe that time is on their side,
and that international pressure will force the Saudis to back down,
giving the Houthis (and Iran) a victory.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the expectation that
the Saudis will back down is unrealistic. Many older Americans can
recall how the Americans backed down under similar circumstances
during the Vietnam war, but America was in a generational Awakening
era at that time, with a "generation gap" that brought enormous
political pressure from younger generations on older generations. But
Saudi is in a generational Crisis era, when such a generation gap does
not exist.

In fact, as we wrote last month in "22-Apr-15 World View -- Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran"
, the Saudi people are in no
mood to back down to the Houthis, and give an enormous victory to
Iran.

For those reasons, the most likely scenario is that airstrikes by the
Saudi coalition will increase, and that the next step will be a ground
war between the Houthis and Saudi coalition ground forces. AFP and AP and Saudi Press Agency #1 and #2 and
#3 and #4


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Rohingya Muslims, Buddhists,
Thailand, Ashin Wirathu, Malaysia,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran, Sadaa

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*** 11-May-15 World View -- 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants
• Very brief generational history of Albanian - Macedonian conflict
• Former Libya leader Muammar Gaddafi's son offers to make me rich

****
**** 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants
****


Macedonian special units take cover near battle zone in Kumanovo (AP)

A militia group of more than 40 armed men, thought to be ethnic
Albanians from the disbanded Albanian/Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA),
fought Macedonian police in Kumanovo, near the border with Kosovo.
Eight policemen were killed and 37 injured in the gun battle that
lasted all day on Saturday, and which led to the death of 14 members
of the attackers.

In a nationally televised address on Sunday, Macedonia's president
George Ivanov said that the group had been planning terrorist acts
across the whole country:

<QUOTE>"Police have prevented co-ordinated terrorist attacks
at different locations in the country that would cause serious
destabilization, chaos and fear. The members of the group are
extremists and criminals with remarkable military training and
skills. That’s why we have paid such a high price with the loss of
lives."<END QUOTE>

Pro-separatist Muslim Albanian terrorists have conducted numerous
attacks on Orthodox Slav targets since the breakup of the former
Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, making Macedonia an independent state.
About a quarter of Macedonia's two million population are ethnic
Albanians.

The bloody, genocidal Bosnian War of the mid-1990s was a generational
crisis war for the entire region. It was followed by two minor
conflicts, an Orthodox Serb invasion of Kosovo in 1999, and an
Albanian insurgency in Macedonia in 2001.

A number of subsequent incidents, including Saturday's gunfight, have
led to concerns that there could be a major new war engulfing the
region, as happened in the mid-1990s. But that's impossible because
the region is in a generational Awakening era, just 20 years past the
Bosnian war, and so brief outbreaks of violence are possible, but not
a full-scale generational crisis war. BBC and Deutsche Welle and AP

****
**** Very brief generational history of Albanian - Macedonian conflict
****

The ethnic Albanians and the Macedonian Slavs were all mostly Orthodox
Christian, but still had many wars during the Middle Ages. When the
Ottoman Empire (Turkey) conquered the Balkans, the Albanians converted
to Islam, mainly in the 16th and 17th centuries. Under the Ottomans,
the Orthodox Slavs were in poverty, subordinated to the Turks and the
Albanians. However, the situation reversed after World War I, which
was a generational crisis war for the Balkans, when the Ottoman Empire
was split up Orthodox Slavs had the upper hand for a while, while the
Albanians were the second class citizens.

During World War II, the Albanians, Turks, and Italians were all on
the side of Nazi Germany. They attempted to create a "Greater
Albania," which would include not only Albanians, but also Greece,
Yugoslavia, and other Orthodox Slav territories.

After World War II, the attempts at "Greater Albania" served to create
strong nationalist feelings among both Albanians and Macedonians.
They had repeated minor conflicts, culminating in the Bosnian War that
engulfed Balkans in the mid-1990s. There have been additional minor
conflicts since then, including the gunfight on Saturday.

Today, there is a small population of Albanians in Macedonia, and the
dreams of a "Greater Albania" are still alive, so it's likely that
spurts of violence between Albanians and Macedonians will continue
well into the future.

As Yugoslavia disintegrated, Macedonia declared its independence in
September, 1991, and immediately became embroiled in a bizarre
disagreement with Greece. Greece believes that the name "Macedonia"
can refer only to the Greek region of Macedonia, and nothing more.
They fear that a new Macedonia nation on the Greek border would
attempt to annex Greece's Macedonia region. The dispute was resolved
with an uneasy compromise in 1993, when the country was admitted to
the United Nations as the "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" or
"FYR Macedonia."

FYR Macedonia is not a member of the European Union, but has applied
to be a member. The "Macedonia" name continues to be a problem, and
is one of the issues holding up EU membership. There have been calls
to change the country's name to the simpler "Republic of Macedonia" as
a compromise. EU Observer and New Balkan Politics (2002) and Global Security (2013) and BBC (Sep-2014)

****
**** Former Libya leader Muammar Gaddafi's son offers to make me rich
****

Like everyone, I receive plenty of spam e-mail messages. One that I
received on Sunday is so special that I wanted to share it with my
readers:

<QUOTE>"I am Mohammad Gaddafi, son of the killed Libyan
leader Muamar Gaddafi. My family has been in Algeria until we
were recently granted political asylum in Oman.

For your personal consumption and information, my family has a
huge sum of money somewhere for investment for the benefit of my
family. I am open to investment in any part of the world provided
the investments are lucrative and not directly linked to my family
and high returns guaranteed on investment. You will be given
freedom to invest in any aspect of your countries economy.

Once I receive your email response and confirm that you are
capable of investing/managing the funds for us, I will then give
you information on how to access the funds and how much it is.
You will be entitled to 30% for all your services.

Keep this proposal confidential, please reply me via my private
email for further discussion. Regards, Mohammad"<END QUOTE>

Hey, Mohammad! I loved your brother Saif's vow to "fight until the
last bullet." How are you and the family doing? How about just
investing directly in Generational Dynamics? That would be your best
investment of all! -- Regards, John


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Macedonia, Albania, Kumanovo, Kosovo,
Albanian/Kosovo Liberation Army, KLA, George Ivanov,
Slavs, Balkans, Ottoman Empire, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi

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