*** 12-May-15 World View -- EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudis and Houthis escalate Yemen war further, prior to 'ceasefire'
• EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers

****
**** Saudis and Houthis escalate Yemen war further, prior to 'ceasefire'
****


Former Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh addresses the nation from the ruins of his home. (Reuters)

The Yemen war is supposed to stop on Tuesday, with both the Saudis and
the Iran-backed Houthis observing a 5-day "ceasefire" that will then
be renewed indefinitely. So the war escalations that occurred on
Monday might be interpreted as (A) each side getting as much done
before the ceasefire, or (B) each side having no intention to honor
the ceasefire. We should know soon.

The Houthis stepped up their intense artillery and rocket attacks
across the border into villages on Saudi Arabia soil. The Saudis
consider this to be crossing a "red line."

Two foreign workers from Bangladesh were killed by Houthi artillery in
the border city of Najran last week. This is a major humiliation to
the Saudis. More than 500 Bangladeshis working in Yemen have returned
home in the last month, but those working in Saudi Arabia have
remained so far.

The Houthis are also bragging about having shot down a Moroccan
warplane which is part of the Saudi coalition.

The Saudis have intensified their airstrikes in Sanaa, the capital
city of Yemen, and in particular they targeted the home of Yemen's
former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, leaving it in ruins. For months,
it's been suspected that Saleh was supporting the Houthis, though he's
denied it. But after the bombing, Saleh made it official:

<QUOTE>"I was not an ally of Ansar Allah [the Houthis ] but
today I am announcing from this place that Yemenis will be
supportive of anyone who defends the nation's
resources."<END QUOTE>

Few people believe that there will be a ceasefire on Tuesday, but even
if there is, even fewer people believe that the ceasefire will hold
for long. Daily Star (Dhaka) and Gulf News (Dubai) and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)

****
**** EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers
****

The European Union, facing a rising tide of migrants, asked the United
Nations on Monday to authorize military action to destroy boats used
to smuggle people from Libya to Europe.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told the UN
Security Council on Monday that the problem of migrants illegally
crossing the Mediterranean from Libya to Europe was major and growing
crisis that threatened Europe as well as the migrants themselves.

<QUOTE>"Saving lives on one side and dismantling the criminal
organizations that are organizing smuggling and trafficking — the
two things have to go hand in hand,

It is not only a humanitarian emergency, but also a security
crisis, since smuggling networks are linked to, and in some cases
finance, terrorist activities, which contributes to instability in
a region that is already unstable enough."<END QUOTE>

The proposal is to destroy the smugglers' "business model." EU forces
would board smugglers' boats in Libyan waters, after they've left the
Libyan port, remove the migrants, and remove the boat from service.
With fewer boats available for smuggling, the flow of migrants
would be reduced.

There are a number of problems with this proposal:

• Libya is in chaos, since the 2011 military action that
  ended Muammar Gaddafi. Now there are two competing governments
  in Libya, one in the east and one in the west, and both of
  these governments oppose the proposal.
  
• What would be done with the boats? Russia is opposed to simply
  destroying them.
  
• What would be done with the migrants removed from the boats? The
  EU is guaranteeing that they would not be sent back to their home
  countries, which would be a violation of international law.
  Separately, EU officials in Brussels are discussing a quota system
  that would require each EU country to accept a certain minimum number
  of migrants. Italy, Greece and Malta favor a quota system, since
  they've been bearing the brunt of the migrant crisis. But other
  countries, including Britain and Hungary, are opposed.
  
• How do you tell the difference between a smuggler's boat
  and a fishing boat?

The major objection to the plan is that it wouldn't solve the core
problem. Most of the migrants are coming to escape brutal conditions
in Syria, Eritrea, or other countries. There are reportedly tens of
thousands of migrants already in Libya, queuing up to be on a migrant
boat, and there are probably tens of thousands more "in the pipeline,"
en route from their home countries. Even if all the boats could be
taken out of service, the result might be a mob situation in Libya.

Also, traffickers get paid something like $2-5,000 per migrant. A
rubber dinghy containing 150 migrants is worth hundreds of thousands
of dollars to the traffickers. So even if the military proposal
worked, the most likely outcome would be a hundreds of new
boat-building businesses and rubber dinghy-importing businesses in
Libya. The traffickers would find a way to keep their lucrative
business going. Irish Times and Full text of draft EU migration plan (PDF) and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis,
Sanaa, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Iran, Najran, Bangladesh, Morocco,
European Union, Libya, Federica Mogherini

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 12-May-15 World View -- EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudis and Houthis escalate Yemen war further, prior to 'ceasefire'
• EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers

****
**** Saudis and Houthis escalate Yemen war further, prior to 'ceasefire'
****


Former Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh addresses the nation from the ruins of his home. (Reuters)

The Yemen war is supposed to stop on Tuesday, with both the Saudis and
the Iran-backed Houthis observing a 5-day "ceasefire" that will then
be renewed indefinitely. So the war escalations that occurred on
Monday might be interpreted as (A) each side getting as much done
before the ceasefire, or (B) each side having no intention to honor
the ceasefire. We should know soon.

The Houthis stepped up their intense artillery and rocket attacks
across the border into villages on Saudi Arabia soil. The Saudis
consider this to be crossing a "red line."

Two foreign workers from Bangladesh were killed by Houthi artillery in
the border city of Najran last week. This is a major humiliation to
the Saudis. More than 500 Bangladeshis working in Yemen have returned
home in the last month, but those working in Saudi Arabia have
remained so far.

The Houthis are also bragging about having shot down a Moroccan
warplane which is part of the Saudi coalition.

The Saudis have intensified their airstrikes in Sanaa, the capital
city of Yemen, and in particular they targeted the home of Yemen's
former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, leaving it in ruins. For months,
it's been suspected that Saleh was supporting the Houthis, though he's
denied it. But after the bombing, Saleh made it official:

<QUOTE>"I was not an ally of Ansar Allah [the Houthis ] but
today I am announcing from this place that Yemenis will be
supportive of anyone who defends the nation's
resources."<END QUOTE>

Few people believe that there will be a ceasefire on Tuesday, but even
if there is, even fewer people believe that the ceasefire will hold
for long. Daily Star (Dhaka) and Gulf News (Dubai) and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)

****
**** EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers
****

The European Union, facing a rising tide of migrants, asked the United
Nations on Monday to authorize military action to destroy boats used
to smuggle people from Libya to Europe.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told the UN
Security Council on Monday that the problem of migrants illegally
crossing the Mediterranean from Libya to Europe was major and growing
crisis that threatened Europe as well as the migrants themselves.

<QUOTE>"Saving lives on one side and dismantling the criminal
organizations that are organizing smuggling and trafficking — the
two things have to go hand in hand,

It is not only a humanitarian emergency, but also a security
crisis, since smuggling networks are linked to, and in some cases
finance, terrorist activities, which contributes to instability in
a region that is already unstable enough."<END QUOTE>

The proposal is to destroy the smugglers' "business model." EU forces
would board smugglers' boats in Libyan waters, after they've left the
Libyan port, remove the migrants, and remove the boat from service.
With fewer boats available for smuggling, the flow of migrants
would be reduced.

There are a number of problems with this proposal:

• Libya is in chaos, since the 2011 military action that
  ended Muammar Gaddafi. Now there are two competing governments
  in Libya, one in the east and one in the west, and both of
  these governments oppose the proposal.
• What would be done with the boats? Russia is opposed to simply
  destroying them.
• What would be done with the migrants removed from the boats? The
  EU is guaranteeing that they would not be sent back to their home
  countries, which would be a violation of international law.
  Separately, EU officials in Brussels are discussing a quota system
  that would require each EU country to accept a certain minimum number
  of migrants. Italy, Greece and Malta favor a quota system, since
  they've been bearing the brunt of the migrant crisis. But other
  countries, including Britain and Hungary, are opposed.
• How do you tell the difference between a smuggler's boat
  and a fishing boat?

The major objection to the plan is that it wouldn't solve the core
problem. Most of the migrants are coming to escape brutal conditions
in Syria, Eritrea, or other countries. There are reportedly tens of
thousands of migrants already in Libya, queuing up to be on a migrant
boat, and there are probably tens of thousands more "in the pipeline,"
en route from their home countries. Even if all the boats could be
taken out of service, the result might be a mob situation in Libya.

Also, traffickers get paid something like $2-5,000 per migrant. A
rubber dinghy containing 150 migrants is worth hundreds of thousands
of dollars to the traffickers. So even if the military proposal
worked, the most likely outcome would be a hundreds of new
boat-building businesses and rubber dinghy-importing businesses in
Libya. The traffickers would find a way to keep their lucrative
business going. Irish Times and Full text of draft EU migration plan (PDF) and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis,
Sanaa, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Iran, Najran, Bangladesh, Morocco,
European Union, Libya, Federica Mogherini

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Destroy the boats in port, prior to anyone boarding them.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Destroy the boats in port, prior to anyone boarding them.

The Libyan government(s) say that doing so would amount to a declaration of war.

*** 13-May-15 World View -- Iran forces Afghans to fight in Syrian regime's collapsing army

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran forces Afghans to fight in Syrian regime's collapsing army
• Debate over the number of European jihadists in Syria
• Greece makes debt payment as even leftists lose sympathy

****
**** Iran forces Afghans to fight in Syrian regime's collapsing army
****


Iran's Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (left) with Afghan Alireza Tavasoli, commander of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, who was killed fighting in Syria. (RFE/RL)

As we've been reporting recently, the regime army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad is showing signs of collapse, because of enormous
casualty rates, and significant increases in draft-dodging and
desertions. After a series of significant defeats to an increasingly
organized opposition, al-Assad is desperate to reconstitute his army.
( "3-May-15 World View -- War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad"
)

There are increasing reports that Iran is recruiting Afghans for
al-Assad's army. The Afghans being recruited are mostly ethnic
Hazaras, who are Shias. I've written about the Hazaras a number of
times in the past as being victims of horrific terrorist attacks in
Pakistan from Taliban-linked groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and
Jundullah who are committed to exterminating all Shias in Pakistan,
starting with bombings of Shia mosques and schools. People in the
Hazara ethnic group live in Iran, as well as in Pakistan and
Afghanistan, mostly in poverty, where they usually suffer a great deal
of discrimination and violence at the hands of Sunni ethnic groups,
especially the Pashtuns.

Hazaras who are illegal immigrants in Iran can be scooped up and
forcibly sent to al-Assad's army in Syria, while others are given
money and a chance to stay alive and avoid direct torture.

The irony is that the vestiges of the "Syrian civil war" as a civil
war are completely disappearing. It's increasingly a proxy war
between foreign fighters -- Shia Hezbollah and Shia Afghans on the
al-Assad side, and foreign Sunni jihadists from around the world
coming to Syria to join the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) or al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra) or one of the "moderate"
anti-Assad militias. This is in contrast, for example, to the civil
war in the Central African Republic (CAR). If you took all the
foreigners (foreign fighters) out of Syria, then the war would
collapse. If you took all the foreigners (UN and African Union
peacekeepers) out of CAR, then the Muslims and Christians would go
full-scale at massacring each other.

When the Syrian civil war first started in 2011, I wrote that Syria
was in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past Syria's
last REAL civil war, which climaxed in 1982 with the bloody massacre
of some 40,000 Sunni civilians in Hama. So it's too soon for a new
crisis civil war, since too many people remember the last one, so it
had to fizzle before long. In 2011, there was no way to predict
exactly what scenario it would follow, but now it appears that the
scenario is to dissolve into a fight between Shia recruits from
Afghanistan and Sunni jihadists from around the world. Al-Monitor and Der Spiegel and Middle East Eye and Business Insider

****
**** Debate over the number of European jihadists in Syria
****

Almost every day, there are new media reports of European jihadists
who have gone to Syria to join ISIS or one of the militias fighting
against the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

According to the European Union Justice Commissioner Vera Jourová, the
number of Europeans who have gone to Syria is about 6,000, principally
from France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. This number was
higher than previous EU estimates, but there are reasons to believe
that, as Jourová herself said, these figures may be "severe
underestimates."

Estimating the number of European jihadists in Syria depends on adding
together the official estimates from each of the 28 EU countries. But
there are several reasons why a country may severely underestimate the
number of its jihadists that have gone to Syria.

The first reason is that there is no motivation for a country to give
a truthful figure, since a high estimate of jihadists from that
country makes the country look bad.

The second reason is that there's no way to be sure how many have
gone. One German official said that a significant discrepancy exists
between the official figure and the real one: "Those are people that
we can identify by name. Our problem is that there are constantly
people turning up in Syria and Iraq that we previously did not know at
all. ... So, the unknown number [Dunkelziffer] is very large."

The appearance of German-, French- and Dutch-speakers in jihadist
propaganda videos has become a commonplace, and suggests that the
official figures are underestimates. On the other hand, a
recently-leaked Spanish police report puts the number as high as
100,000. This figure is probably too high, just as the 6,000 estimate
is too low. The credible estimates are that tens of thousands of
European jihadists have traveled to Syria. GeoPolitical Monitor

****
**** Greece makes debt payment as even leftists lose sympathy
****

The radical left-wing government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras
succeeded in making a scheduled 750 million euro debt repayment to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday, but did so only by
emptying out an account holding an emergency fund that has to be
replenished within weeks.

Greek officials had hoped to obtain the funds for the payment through
a law that was passed on April 25 giving the government the right to
confiscate cash reserves and bank accounts of all public institutions,
including municipalities,
provinces, universities and hospitals. Officials had hope to obtain
2.5 billion euros from the decree, but hundreds of mayors across the
country refused to comply, fearing that the money would be lost for
good.

Tsipras is averring that his government has met all the commitments he
made since his party was elected in January, but in fact he's
continuing to refuse to cross his "red lines" and institute reforms to
address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public
sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public
businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

Leftists across Europe had been ebullient after Tsipras' victory in
January. European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker, had
hugged Tsipras. Socialist French President François Hollande said
Tsipras' victory "underscored that austerity as the only perspective
and reality wasn't tolerable anymore."

But now leftists are turning Tsipras, as the perception grows that
Tsipras' tenure has been a disaster for Greece, and possibly for the
entire EU. Under the austerity program of his predecessor, Antonis
Samaras of the New Democracy party, Greece had been achieving a
surplus during the last two years.

But in four months under Tsipras, that hard-won surplus has mostly
been blown away. Tax receipts are decreasing, and 4 billion euros
have been withdrawn from Greek banks since January, in anticipation of
a bank run.

Following Tuesday's payment of 750 million euros to the IMF, another
2.1 billion euros are due to the IMF in August, 6.7 billion are due to
the European Central Bank (ECB) in July and August. In pensions and
wages are included, then Greece must come up with 35 billion euros by
the end of August.

There's very little sympathy left in Europe for the Tsipras
government. Tsipras is begging for more bailout money, but is
refusing to cross any of his "red lines." If the Europeans decide to
bail out Greece once more, which would only be "kicking the can down
the road" again and postponing the inevitable, it certainly won't be
because they like Tsipras. It will be because they decide that
another bailout is the lesser of two horrible evils. They've been
postponing a decision for weeks, but it's unlikely that they'll be
able to postpone it much longer. Reuters and Kathimerini and Reuters and Kathimerini

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Hazaras,
Bashar al-Assad, Lashkar-e Jhangvi, LeJ, Jundullah, Taliban,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, European Union, Vera Jourová,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, François Hollande, New Democracy, Antonis Samaras

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*** 14-May-15 World View -- US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nusra Front vows to eradicate ISIS in Qalamoun on Syria/Lebanon border
• US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea
• Vatican to recognize State of Palestine while canonizing Palestinian nuns

****
**** Nusra Front vows to eradicate ISIS in Qalamoun on Syria/Lebanon border
****


The Syrian border town of Assal al-Ward, in the Qalamoun region. (AP)

Qalamoun, a mountainous region of Syria that is on the border with
Lebanon, is becoming the site for a fierce fight between two Sunni
jihadist militias, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
versus al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra). In the past,
al-Nusra had avoided clashes with ISIS along the Lebanon border
because the two groups were "the advocates of the same ideology" and
because the two groups had to cooperate to fight against the
Iran-backed Lebanon Shia terrorist group Hezbollah. However,
according to an al-Nusra statement, ISIS has kidnapped one al-Nusra
group, tortured them by beating them with rifles, and threatened to
behead them. That triggered the current fighting, and a vow by
al-Nusra to eradicate ISIS from Qalamoun.

This is presumably good news for Hezbollah, which is involved in a
fierce battle in Qalamoun against both al-Nusra and ISIS, to prevent
these militias from crossing the border into Lebanon. Hezbollah is
claiming significant victories in this clash, but some reports
indicate that Hezbollah has suffered significant losses. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Al Monitor and Daily Star (Lebanon) and Debka (Israel)

****
**** US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea
****

As China continues to annex other countries' territories in the South
China Sea, using military force with impunity, the US military may use
aircraft and Navy ships to directly confront China, in a tit for tat
escalation of tensions.

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

In recent months, China has repeated escalated the military aggression
by using land reclamation projects to construct man-made islands for
military bases and airports in regions surrounding the Spratly Islands
that have previously belonged to Vietnam and the Philippines.

There's no word on how the American naval vessels and aircraft will be
used, or whether there are conditions beyond self-defense under which
they would take military action. They are going to be used for
patrols, according to reports, "to underscore the freedom of
navigation in the South China Sea." However, this could be
interpreted as allowing for defense of Vietnamese or Philippine
vessels being harassed by the Chinese.

The US will stay within international waters, but according to
China, there are no international waters within the South China
Sea, since China claims everything.

Thus, we have the following statement expressing "grave concern" from
China's Foreign Ministry:

<QUOTE>"We express grave concern about the relevant
U.S. remarks. It’s necessary for the U.S. to provide
clarification.

China advocates the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea,
yet the freedom definitely does not mean that foreign military
vessels and aircrafts can enter one country’s territorial waters
and airspace at will. China will stay firm in safeguarding
territorial sovereignty. ...

We urge parties concerned to be discreet in words and actions,
avoid taking any risky and provocative actions and safeguard
regional peace and stability."<END QUOTE>

So if the US is patrolling in "international waters" in the South
China Sea, and China claims the entire South China Sea as its
"territorial waters," then what steps will China take to "stay firm in
safeguarding territorial sovereignty"?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly the
kind of tit-for-tat escalation that leads to full scale war during a
generational Crisis era, when nationalism and xenophobia are at their
highest. At some point, as actions escalate, one side or the other
will, by miscalculation, by accident or by intention, take a military
action that requires a response, and then things can spiral quickly
out of control. CNN and Xinhua and Bloomberg

****
**** Vatican to recognize State of Palestine while canonizing Palestinian nuns
****

The Vatican will sign a treaty on Saturday officially recognizing the
State of Palestine. The Vatican has been unofficially referring to
the State of Palestine for over a year, but now the treaty makes it
official. On Sunday, two nuns who lived in Ottoman Palestine during
the 1800s will be canonized and made saints. Vatican News and AFP and YNet (Israel)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Qalamoun, Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
South China Sea, Vietnam, Philippines, Vatican, State of Palestine

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 14-May-15 World View -- US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nusra Front vows to eradicate ISIS in Qalamoun on Syria/Lebanon border
• US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea
• Vatican to recognize State of Palestine while canonizing Palestinian nuns

****
**** Nusra Front vows to eradicate ISIS in Qalamoun on Syria/Lebanon border
****


The Syrian border town of Assal al-Ward, in the Qalamoun region. (AP)

Qalamoun, a mountainous region of Syria that is on the border with
Lebanon, is becoming the site for a fierce fight between two Sunni
jihadist militias, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
versus al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra). In the past,
al-Nusra had avoided clashes with ISIS along the Lebanon border
because the two groups were "the advocates of the same ideology" and
because the two groups had to cooperate to fight against the
Iran-backed Lebanon Shia terrorist group Hezbollah. However,
according to an al-Nusra statement, ISIS has kidnapped one al-Nusra
group, tortured them by beating them with rifles, and threatened to
behead them. That triggered the current fighting, and a vow by
al-Nusra to eradicate ISIS from Qalamoun.

This is presumably good news for Hezbollah, which is involved in a
fierce battle in Qalamoun against both al-Nusra and ISIS, to prevent
these militias from crossing the border into Lebanon. Hezbollah is
claiming significant victories in this clash, but some reports
indicate that Hezbollah has suffered significant losses. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Al Monitor and Daily Star (Lebanon) and Debka (Israel)

****
**** US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea
****

As China continues to annex other countries' territories in the South
China Sea, using military force with impunity, the US military may use
aircraft and Navy ships to directly confront China, in a tit for tat
escalation of tensions.

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

In recent months, China has repeated escalated the military aggression
by using land reclamation projects to construct man-made islands for
military bases and airports in regions surrounding the Spratly Islands
that have previously belonged to Vietnam and the Philippines.

There's no word on how the American naval vessels and aircraft will be
used, or whether there are conditions beyond self-defense under which
they would take military action. They are going to be used for
patrols, according to reports, "to underscore the freedom of
navigation in the South China Sea." However, this could be
interpreted as allowing for defense of Vietnamese or Philippine
vessels being harassed by the Chinese.

The US will stay within international waters, but according to
China, there are no international waters within the South China
Sea, since China claims everything.

Thus, we have the following statement expressing "grave concern" from
China's Foreign Ministry:

<QUOTE>"We express grave concern about the relevant
U.S. remarks. It’s necessary for the U.S. to provide
clarification.

China advocates the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea,
yet the freedom definitely does not mean that foreign military
vessels and aircrafts can enter one country’s territorial waters
and airspace at will. China will stay firm in safeguarding
territorial sovereignty. ...

We urge parties concerned to be discreet in words and actions,
avoid taking any risky and provocative actions and safeguard
regional peace and stability."<END QUOTE>

So if the US is patrolling in "international waters" in the South
China Sea, and China claims the entire South China Sea as its
"territorial waters," then what steps will China take to "stay firm in
safeguarding territorial sovereignty"?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly the
kind of tit-for-tat escalation that leads to full scale war during a
generational Crisis era, when nationalism and xenophobia are at their
highest. At some point, as actions escalate, one side or the other
will, by miscalculation, by accident or by intention, take a military
action that requires a response, and then things can spiral quickly
out of control. CNN and Xinhua and Bloomberg

****
**** Vatican to recognize State of Palestine while canonizing Palestinian nuns
****

The Vatican will sign a treaty on Saturday officially recognizing the
State of Palestine. The Vatican has been unofficially referring to
the State of Palestine for over a year, but now the treaty makes it
official. On Sunday, two nuns who lived in Ottoman Palestine during
the 1800s will be canonized and made saints. Vatican News and AFP and YNet (Israel)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Qalamoun, Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
South China Sea, Vietnam, Philippines, Vatican, State of Palestine

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

We are going to see ICBMs and cruise missiles volleyed, armed with thermonuclear warheads. The Great War of Great Wars is a can that has been kicked down the road for 70 years. And that is all it has been. The pent up "demand" for global thermonuclear war is rising and eventually the demand will be met. The genie was let out of the bottle the better part of a century ago and there is no way to stuff it back in. The bomb has been deemed "unthinkable" by Western intellectuals, politicians, and others, in an attempt to psych the world into non use. But the idea of the bomb and all the IP that makes it a reality cannot be made to go away. The temptation is too great. There can be no escape from the inevitable.

*** 15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran attempts to seize Singapore-flagged ship in Persian Gulf
• Obama concludes bizarre meeting with GCC at Camp David
• The Truman Doctrine and the Carter Doctrine

****
**** Iran attempts to seize Singapore-flagged ship in Persian Gulf
****


The Alpine Eternity. (Marinetraffic.com)

In what is apparently going to be a repeating pattern, Iran's Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) on Thursday launched five patrol
boats and fired at a commercial ship in international waters passing
through the Persian Gulf, in an apparent attempt to either disable it
or to seize it and force it into an Iranian port.

On April 24, four IRGCN patrol boats surrounded the Maersk Kensington,
a US-flagged cargo vessel, and harassed it for a while before letting
it go.

On April 28, IRGCN patrol boats fired shots at a commercial cargo
vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and then forcibly boarded
the ship and directed it to an Iranian port. The vessel was the Maersk
Tigris, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship. The Tigris and its crew were
forcibly held for several days before they were released.

In the new incident, it appears that Iran was trying to repeat the
April 28 incident. The intended forcible seizure was of the Alpine
Eternity, a Singapore-flagged ship whose owners Iran claims owe money
to Iran.

The first volley of shots, probably from machine guns, were across the
bow. At that point, the vessel called the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
for help, and turned toward UAE waters. The UAE sent three of its
coast guard boats out. The IRGCN boats pursued and fired additional
shots, apparently hitting the Alpine Eternity but not disabling it.
Once it entered UAE waters, the IRGCN boats broke off. CNN and The National (UAE)

****
**** Obama concludes bizarre meeting with GCC at Camp David
****

As President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry continue
to have one embarrassing foreign policy humiliation after another,
it's very hard to understand why Obama seems completely immune from
learning any lessons and acting more intelligently.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an organization with six member
on the Arabian Peninsula: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman,
and United Arab Emirates (UAE). GCC members have been expressing
increasing alarm that Obama seems to be ready to concede anything and
everything to Iran, putting GCC members at risk.

According to Marwan Bishara, Al-Jazeera's senior political analyst,
Gulf leaders know that if they're being invited to Camp David, then
they're going to be either squeezed or humiliated, "as what happened
with the Palestinians in 2000." He said that Gulf leaders have no
respect for Obama for a number of reasons:

• He coordinated an entire campaign agreement, rapprochement
  with Iran -- what they call "pivot to Iran" -- without getting back to
  them.
  
• There's a whole nuclear deal with Iran that eventually will allow
  Iran to enrich uranium in the long term, and there's no similar thing
  happening in the Gulf.
  
• In his interview a few weeks ago, Obama said that the threat to
  the Gulf region is not coming from Iran, but will come from domestic
  discontent, which was extremely alarming to the Gulf leaders. Bishara
  pointed out that the U.S. enjoys the luxury of great distance from
  Iran, while Gulf countries are right next door.

Bishara didn't mention -- but other analysts have -- that there is a
generational issue. Obama is a Gen-Xer who considers himself to be
the smartest person in the room, no matter who else is in the room,
and who treats anyone who disagrees with him with extreme contempt.

The news all week was asking the question whether Saudi Arabia's new
King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud was "snubbing" Obama by not coming.
Well, of course he was. Salman and other Gulf leaders are in their
70s, and consider Obama to be a kid who has no clue what's going on in
the Mideast -- an appraisal that I would agree with. So of course
these older leaders are not going to want to come to Camp David
to be ordered around and humiliated by Obama.

The GCC meeting was described as a negotiation, but Bishara pointed
out that no one believed it was a negotiation. It was clear that
Obama was going to tell them that the nuclear deal with Iran was going
ahead, and they should just get used to it. No wonder they didn't
want to come to Camp David. Saudi Gazette

****
**** The Truman Doctrine and the Carter Doctrine
****

The GCC leaders knew in advance that the Camp David meeting was a
"take it or leave it" announcement by Obama, with no negotiating. But
if there HAD been negotiating, then what the Gulf leaders wanted was a
reaffirmation of Jimmy Carter's Carter Doctrine.

I've written many times about the Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial
today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small
military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end
up having an enormous conflict like World War II. Every president
since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including
George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the
Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.

In his State of the Union address on January 23, 1980, President Jimmy
Carter announced what has been called the Carter Doctrine. It was
essentially an application of the Truman Doctrine to two specific
regions: the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. Here are some excerpts:

<QUOTE>"This last few months has not been an easy time for
any of us. As we meet tonight, it has never been more clear that
the state of our Union depends on the state of the world. And
tonight, as throughout our own generation, freedom and peace in
the world depend on the state of our Union. ...

At this time in Iran, 50 Americans are still held captive,
innocent victims of terrorism and anarchy. Also at this moment,
massive Soviet troops are attempting to subjugate the fiercely
independent and deeply religious people of Afghanistan. These two
acts—one of international terrorism and one of military
aggression-present a serious challenge to the United States of
America and indeed to all the nations of the world. Together, we
will meet these threats to peace. ...

In response to the abhorrent act in Iran, our Nation has never
been aroused and unified so greatly in peacetime. Our position is
clear. The United States will not yield to blackmail. ...

We continue to pursue these specific goals: first, to protect the
present and long-range interests of the United States; secondly,
to preserve the lives of the American hostages and to secure, as
quickly as possible, their safe release, if possible, to avoid
bloodshed which might further endanger the lives of our fellow
citizens; to enlist the help of other nations in condemning this
act of violence, which is shocking and violates the moral and the
legal standards of a civilized world; and also to convince and to
persuade the Iranian leaders that the real danger to their nation
lies in the north, in the Soviet Union and from the Soviet troops
now in Afghanistan, and that the unwarranted Iranian quarrel with
the United States hampers their response to this far greater
danger to them. ...

This situation demands careful thought, steady nerves, and
resolute action, not only for this year but for many years to
come. It demands collective efforts to meet this new threat to
security in the Persian Gulf and in Southwest Asia. It demands the
participation of all those who rely on oil from the Middle East
and who are concerned with global peace and stability. And it
demands consultation and close cooperation with countries in the
area which might be threatened. ...

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside
force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded
as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of
America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means
necessary, including military force."<END QUOTE>

That's what the GCC leaders would have liked Obama to reaffirm.
Instead, at the conclusion of Thursday's meeting, he said the
following:

<QUOTE>"In the event of such aggression or the threat of such
aggression, the United States stands ready to work with our GCC
partners to determine urgently what action may be appropriate,
using the means at our collective disposal, including the
potential use of military force, for the defense of our GCC
partners."<END QUOTE>

It's pretty clear that Obama has repudiated the Carter Doctrine,
as well as the Truman Doctrine.

It's probably worthwhile mentioning that even if Obama had reaffirmed
the Carter Doctrine, he would probably not have been believed, after
his repeated irrational behavior in Mideast policy, especially his
flip-flop on his chemical weapons "red line" in Syria, allowing the
Syrian regime to use chemical weapons with impunity, which it
continues to do to this day. Carter's State of the Union address, 1/23/1980 and Maxwell AF Base (1983) and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Maersk Tigris, Alpine Eternity, Singapore,
Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, IRGCN,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Marwan Bishara,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Truman Doctrine, Carter Doctrine,
Syria, chemical weapons

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*** 16-May-15 World View -- Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia
• Southeast Asian nations face a flood of migrants
• U.S. under pressure to help Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants
• EU proposes refugee shelters in Niger to house illegal migrants headed for Europe

****
**** Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia
****


Rohingya migrants arriving in Indonesia on Friday (AP)

Nearly 800 migrants from Myanmar (Burma) and Bangladesh were rescued
by local fishermen when their boat sank off the eastern coast of
Indonesia. The migrants were brought to shore, given food and water,
and placed in a warehouse.

Those were the lucky ones. It's estimated that there are 6,000 to
8,000 migrants in vastly overcrowded boats in the Andaman Sea off the
coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Officials that these three
countries are preventing them from reaching land. When one of the
boats is spotted, the authorities supply food, water and fuel to the
hundreds of people on board, and then push the boat back out into the
Andaman Sea, sending it on its way. Some migrants have been at sea
for weeks.

According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al
Hussein:

<QUOTE>"I am appalled at reports that Thailand, Indonesia and
Malaysia have been pushing boats full of vulnerable migrants back
out to sea, which will inevitably lead to many avoidable deaths.
The focus should be on saving lives, not further endangering
them."<END QUOTE>

However, a government official in Malaysia said:

<QUOTE>"What do you expect us to do? We have been very nice
to the people who broke into our border. We have treated them
humanely but they cannot be flooding our shores like
this."<END QUOTE>

According to Thailand's prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha:

<QUOTE>"If we take them all in, then anyone who wants to come
will come freely. I am asking if Thailand will be able to take
care of them all. Where will the budget come from? No one wants
them. Everyone wants a transit country like us to take
responsibility. Is it fair?"<END QUOTE>

AP and VOA

****
**** Southeast Asian nations face a flood of migrants
****

This situation has gained international attention ever since Rohingya 'death camps' and 'slave camps' were found in southern Thailand,
as I reported last week.

As I described in that article, Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar (Burma)
who had lived there for generations are being slaughtered and driven
from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. The
Rohingyas, described by the United Nations as "the most persecuted
ethnic group in the world," are not even recognized as Rohingyas by
Burma's government, who refer to them as Bangladeshis. Because of the
Buddhist violence, they've been fleeing Burma into the Bay of Bengal
in small boats, heading south and hoping to land in Thailand,
Indonesia or Malaysia.

There are about 1.3 million Rohingya in Burma, and in the last three
years more than 120,000 of them have boarded ships to flee to other
countries. They are joined by Bangladeshis from Bangladesh who are
also fleeing to the south because of poverty, hoping to find work.

The discovery of the death camps and slave camps has caused Thai
officials to announce that they will criminally prosecute for illegal
entry any refugees who land on Thai soil. According to a spokesman
for Thai's military junta:

<QUOTE>"We have given the navy a clear policy that those who
plan to land on the Thai coast are welcome to do so and we will
give them humanitarian assistance. But we will treat them in
accordance with our laws about illegal entry into the
country."<END QUOTE>

As a result, thousands of these migrants are scooped up by human
traffickers who charge thousands of dollars to take them further
south, often demanding that they call their families to secure
payment. Stories of rape of women and children, starvation and
disease are common, as well as violent fights when water and food run
out. But because of the crackdown on human trafficking in the past
few weeks, many of the traffickers are just setting the boats adrift.
When one of the boats arrives on the shore of one of the southeast
Asian nations, the migrants are given food and water, and the boats
are towed back out to sea.

According to one lawyer, countries towing boats back to see
are probably in breach of international law:

<QUOTE>"These boats carrying overcrowded refugees and
migrants are typically rickety wooden trawlers and hardly
seaworthy. Turning or towing these boats away is as good as
signing their death warrant as the occupants are normally
starving, dehydrated, sickly and in dire need of immediate
assistance."<END QUOTE>

Attention is turning now to the suspected traffickers who have a
"systemic kidnapping scheme" targeting Rohingya in Burma, who would
then be held for ransom in Thailand. NPR and Bloomberg

****
**** U.S. under pressure to help Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants
****

Human rights groups and some in Congress are demanding that the
U.S. do something to help solve the migrant crisis in southeast Asia.

Democratic Representative Joe Crowley, "These men, women, children and
infants are refugees fleeing well-founded fear of persecution and
their deaths may well constitute a mass atrocity in the heart of
ASEAN." (ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations.) He called on
the US to provide humanitarian assistance to the migrants.

However, State Dept. spokesman Jeff Rathke said, "This is a regional
issue. It needs a regional solution in short order." AP

****
**** EU proposes refugee shelters in Niger to house illegal migrants headed for Europe
****

The European Union and Niger are considering a plan to build a string
of refugee shelters in Niger to dissuade illegal African migrants from
trying to reach Europe, and instead offer local alternatives.

According to Niger's president Mahamadou Issoufou, this will "attack
the problem at its root":

<QUOTE>"These problems of great migrations are much like
those of the rural exodus. People are leaving the countryside to
the cities driven by poverty, the same way people leave poor
countries to go to rich countries, simply because their situation
is untenable."<END QUOTE>

1,800 people have died in shipwrecks in the Mediterranean since the
beginning of this year. Earlier this week, lawmakers in Niger adopted
a law calling for prison sentences of up to 30 years for smugglers of
illegal immigrants in a bid to stem the flow of migrants across Africa
into Europe. Arab News/AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Rohingya, Buddhists, Muslims,
Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein,
Prayuth Chan-ocha, Ashin Wirathu, Jeff Rathke, Joe Crowley,
European Union, Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou

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*** 17-May-15 World View -- Outrage grows over sting video of Lebanon MP planning terrorism

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Outrage grows over sting video of Lebanon MP planning terrorism
• Stock market bubble accelerates explosion as economy falters

****
**** Outrage grows over sting video of Lebanon MP planning terrorism
****


Screen grab of sting video showing Michel Samaha's admission of terrorist plans

Lebanon's people were shocked on Thursday evening when TV channels
broadcast a video of a sting operation that trapped a Lebanon former
MP (Member of Parliament) importing explosives from Bashar al-Assad's
regime in Syria with the intention of killing Lebanon's MPs and
religious figures who were politically opposed to Iran-backed
Hezbollah terrorism and support for Bashar al-Assad's war.

In 2012, undercover police informant Milad Kfoury secretly videotaped
conversations with pro-Hezbollah MP Michel Samaha. In those
conversations, Samaha said "you can get rid of" lawmakers and other
political opponents. In the third videotape, Samaha actually delivers
the bomb-making explosives to Kfoury, and he assures Kfoury that the
only two people who know about this are Bashar al-Assad and his
security chief Ali Mamlouk.

Samaha has been under arrest since August 2012 over allegations that
he and Mamlouk planned to assassinate a string of political and
religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha confessed after he learned of
the video, but the video was not shown to the public until Thursday.

The Samaha conviction is reminding people of the assassination of
Rafiq Hariri ten years ago. (See "Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock"
from 2005.) The outrage from the Hariri
assassination was so great that Syrian troops who had been occupying
Lebanon were forced to leave the country. Since then, there have
numerous assassinations by bomb and gunfire, allegedly by Hezbollah
and Syria, to eliminate Syria's political opponents and to torpedo any
investigates that might show al-Assad and Hezbollah complicity in the
Hariri assassination.

Lebanon's people are well aware of this, and so shock turned to anger
when it was learned that Samaha received a light sentence, 4-1/2
years, and that because of time served, and because a Lebanese
judicial year is equal to nine months, he'll be released in December
of this year. Anti-Hezbollah politicians have condemned the light
sentence, saying that it would effectively "legalize assassination and
bombings." However, a pro-Hezbollah MP defended the light sentence,
characterizing objections to it as "an unprecedented assault on the
judiciary and on justice."

The Hariri assassination shocked and angered Lebanon enough to force
major changes. It remains to be seen what long-term effect the
conviction of Samaha will have. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Daily Star and Daily Star

****
**** Stock market bubble accelerates explosion as economy falters
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.47 on May 15 (WSJ)

It's been only three weeks since I reported
that the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuation
index) was at an astronomically high 20.98, indicating a huge stock
market bubble. It was at 18 a year ago, and in the last three weeks
it's shot up to 21.47, the Wall Street Journal on Friday, May 15.

At the same time, numerous economic indicators -- manufacturing
activity, consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production and
GDP -- are all much softer tham mainstream economists were predicting.
When those indicators are combined with poor economic performance in
Europe, Japan and China, and a worldwide deflationary trend, there is
plenty of evidence of a likely global economic slowdown.

People frequently ask me whether Generational Dynamics can predict
when the stock market bubble is going to burst, and a panic will
occur. That cannot be predicted and, if it could, I would be rich.
In fact, economists still don't even know for sure what triggered the
panic and stock market crash of 1929, or why it didn't happen earlier
or later.

During the 2004-2007 time frame, it was obvious that there was a real
estate bubble, and I begged a number of people not to buy homes,
generally to no avail. Now I beg people to stay out of the stock
market, with equal lack of success. It's heartbreaking to me to see
this happen.

The P/E index is well over 21 and is surging, indicating a rapidly
growing stock market bubble. The historical average is 14, and as
recently as 1982 it was around 6. It is an absolute guarantee that it
will fall to around 5-6 again, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial
Average to below 3000, far below the current index value of over
18,000.

Anything might trigger a stock market panic. It might be something as
simple as a speech, or it might be an exogenous event, such as a major
international crisis. With almost the entire Mideast in flames, with
Russia invading and annexing pieces of Ukraine, with China invading
and annexing pieces of the South China Sea, something major could
occur at any time.

So, as I have in the past, I strongly urge readers to keep their
assets in cash. In the deflationary environment of today, that's the
best bet. Seeking Alpha and Reuters



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Milad Kfoury, Michel Samaha, Hezbollah,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Rafiq Hariri, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio

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*** 18-May-15 World View -- Iraq's Shia militias ordered to fight ISIS after major loss in Ramadi

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS in major victory seizes Iraq city of Ramadi
• Ominously, the Iraq government is ordering Shia militias into Ramadi

****
**** ISIS in major victory seizes Iraq city of Ramadi
****


An Iraqi soldier at a base outside Ramadi on May 8th (AFP)

In a major setback for Iraq, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) has overrun Iraq's city of Ramadi. Ramadi is the capital of
Anbar, Iraq's largest province. This victory will permit ISIS to
threaten Baiji, Iraq’s largest oil refinery, as well as the villages
in the suburbs around Baghdad, and Baghdad itself. Furthermore,
weapons stores and other assets in Ramadi were not destroyed, and are
available to ISIS.

People with long memories may recall the phrase "Anbar Awakening."
The US Army worked with Sunni villages across Anbar province, and
triggered by means of President Bush's troop "surge" in 2007, the
Sunni militias ejected Al-Qaeda in Iraq, effectively ending the Iraq
war. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)

When young jihadists from around the world started traveling to Syria
to fight Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, ISIS was formed
in Syria. After the 2011 withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, the
Iran-backed Shia government in Baghdad treated the Sunnis in Anbar
province brutally, allowing ISIS to infiltrate much of Anbar. This
included the capture of the city of Mosul, where the Iraqi army
dropped their weapons and fled for their lives as ISIS militias
approached. Some analysts are blaming President Obama for this
outcome, since he did not negotiate keeping some American troops
remaining in Iraq, and allowed the victory of the Anbar Awakening to
turn to defeat. Other analysts are blaming President Bush for this
outcome, because the Iraq army was disbanded after its defeat in 2003.

The BBC and Al-Jazeera have been showing video of Ramadi on Friday,
when the Iraq army once again could be seen fleeing for their lives.
Al Jazeera and BBC

****
**** Ominously, the Iraq government is ordering Shia militias into Ramadi
****

Iraq's government has ordered the mobilization of Shia militias in
Ramadi, in an attempt to recover the city from ISIS. The order is
ominous because of atrocities committed by Shia militias in the
recapture of the city of Tikrit. Shia militias are known locally as
"popular mobilization units."

After ISIS seized the city of Tikrit in June 2014, the Baghdad
government ordered the Shia militias to enter the city. They did so,
and took control of Tikrit back from ISIS. But some 400,000 people
fled their homes in Tikrit because the Shia militias were committing
atrocities targeting the Sunni population. Today, two months after
the defeat of ISIS, Tikrit is a ghost town. Shia militia commanders
are denying that the atrocities ever occurred, and are asking the
former Sunni residents of Tikrit to return to their former homes. But
many homes are completely looted and destroyed, and only a tiny
fraction of former residents are returning.

Now the Baghdad government has ordered Shia militias to go into Anbar
province to recapture Ramadi from ISIS. It's feared that the
atrocities of Tikrit will be repeated in Ramadi. UPI and AP (4-May) and
Daily Mail (5-Mar)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Ramadi, Baiji, Baghdad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Anbar Awakening, Mosul, Tikrit, popular mobilization units

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*** 19-May-15 World View -- European Union approves military action against migrant smugglers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS seizure of Ramadi Iraq raises concerns of Sunni-Shia war
• European Union approves military action against migrant smugglers

****
**** ISIS seizure of Ramadi Iraq raises concerns of Sunni-Shia war
****


Shia pilgrims carry a symbolic coffin in a funeral commemoration in Baghdad last week (AP)

As we reported yesterday,
the
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) defied the predictions of
both the American and Iraqi governments and seized the city of Ramadi,
after soldiers in the Iraqi army dropped their weapons and fled for
their lives. ISIS is now in control of 80% of Anbar Province, the
heart of the minority Sunni population in Iraq.

In the aftermath, the Iran-backed Shia government in Baghdad has
ordered Iraq's Iran-trained Shia militias, also called Hashid Shaabi
or "popular mobilization units," to deploy to Ramadi and recapture it
from ISIS.

When Shia militias were deployed last year to recapture Tikrit from
ISIS, they did so, but committed atrocities against the Sunni
population, looting and destroying their homes. Some 400,000 people
fled their homes, as I described, and Tikrit is now a ghost town.

Now the Shia militias are entering Ramadi, and Sunni militias in the
region are not going to tolerate the same kinds of atrocities
as happened in Tikrit.

I've heard several analysts on Monday predict or raise concerns about
a major Sunni-Shia bloodbath as Ramadi is being recaptured.

Nothing like this will happen. There may be some clashes between
Sunni and Shia militias, but a Sunni-Shia bloodbath is completely
impossible.

Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s. Something like 1.5 million people were killed in that
extremely bloody war, but it was not a war between Sunnis and Shias.
During that war, the Sunnis and Shias in Iraq were united in fighting
against the Persians in Iran. In other words, it was an ethnic war,
Arabs versus Persians. (There was also a third ethnic group, the
Kurds.)

So now Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past
the Iran/Iraq war. There are millions of survivors of the Iran/Iraq
war who remember its horrors and have no intention of letting anything
like it happen again. In particular, with Sunni and Shia Arabs having
fought shoulder-to-shoulder against the Persians, they have no
intention now of having a bloodbath war with each other, just because
their children are doing some looting and committing some atrocities.
(For more information, see my lengthy 2007 analysis of the Iraq war:
"Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq.")

Even without resorting to generational theory, this argument is proven
by the experience in Tikrit. When the Shia militias started
committing atrocities in Tikrit, why did 400,000 Sunnis leave their
homes and flee for their lives? Why didn't they fight back against
the Shia militias to save their homes? Why didn't they start a
full-scale Sunni-Shia bloodbath in Tikrit?

The answer is because the survivors of the Iran/Iraq war want nothing
to do with those horrors again, so there was no Sunni-Shia bloodbath
in Tikrit. And for the same reason, there will be no Sunni-Shia
bloodbath in Ramadi. USA Today and Reuters

****
**** European Union approves military action against migrant smugglers
****

The European Union on Monday approved a multi-phase military operation
to defeat human smugglers who are trafficking migrants from Libya to
Europe. Smugglers have been charging migrants thousands of
dollars each to make the trip, and there's no guarantee of
reaching Europe or even of surviving.

The initial phase, to begin in June, will be to use spy planes for
intelligence-gathering and surveillance, with the particular objective
of finding and identifying the smugglers' boats.

Once the boats are identified, naval forces could stop the boats in
the Mediterranean and force them to return to Libya. Other options
could include removing the migrants, and then destroying the boats.

Also approved was a "boots on the ground" option, where special forces
would be sent to Libya to hunt the people-smuggling gangs, and stop
the problem at its source. The special forces would also destroy
smugglers' boats in port.

However, anything that requires military action on Libyan soil would
presumably require either approval by the United Nations Security
Council or approval from one or both of the two competing Libyan
governments. Furthermore, several EU countries, including Ireland,
Sweden and Austria, are opposed to any military involvement in the
region.

No one credibly believes that any of these proposals would stop the
flow of migrants to Europe, or even seriously reduce its size. The
migrants are generally completely desperate, while the smugglers stand
to make millions of dollars. And so both the migrants and the
smugglers would quickly find a way to circumvent any steps that the EU
takes.

So there would still be thousands of migrants arriving in Europe.
Last week, the European Commission in Brussels approved a plan to
distribute newly-arrived migrants to each country, with a quota set by
the size and wealth of the country. Under European treaties, Britain
and Ireland are able to opt out of any such proposal. Britain has
already said it will do so, and Ireland has three months to decide.

This is only one of the two major migration crises that have been in
the news lately. (See "16-May-15 World View -- Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia"
.)

In the Asian crisis, thousands of migrants and refugees from Burma and
Bangladesh are trying to migrate to Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.
In those cases, there are already robust military operations in place
to prevent the migrants from reaching land. However, those military
operations don't seem to be stopping the flow of migrants. If that
lesson is applied to the situation in Europe, military operations
won't stop the flow of migrants there either. Irish Times and Daily Mail (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Ramadi, Baghdad, Anbar province,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tikrit, Hashid Shaabi, popular mobilization units,
European Union, Libya, Burma, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Ireland, Britain

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*** 20-May-15 World View -- Iranian, American, Saudi military head for confrontation off Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iranian, American, Saudi military head for confrontation off Yemen
• In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi
• Report: Saudi Arabia seeking nuclear weapons from Pakistan

****
**** Iranian, American, Saudi military head for confrontation off Yemen
****


Iran Shahed (marinetraffic.com)

The Iranian ship Iran Shahed ("Iran Rescue"), which Iran says is
bringing humanitarian aid, is set to arrive at Yemen's port of
Al-Hudaydah on Thursday. According to Iran, the ship will unload
2,500 tons of "humanitarian aid," accompanied by hundreds of
passengers described as "medical relief workers." It's suspected that
at least part of the shipment are weapons and ground troops from
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). The cargo ship is
accompanied by two Iranian warships, the "Vosper" and "Bandar Abbas."

The United States, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have imposed a sea and air
blockade on Yemen, and have demanded that the ship stop off at
Djibouti for inspection. The Iranians have refused to do so, and are
threatening a military confrontation if an attempt is made to prevent
the cargo ship from docking in Yemen.

Readers may recall that this is the same stunt that Russia used in
conjunction with its invasion of Ukraine. Russia sent in one convoy
after another, each one with hundreds of large trucks. The Russians
claim that they contained only humanitarian aid, but many believe that
they also carried weapons and soldiers.

American warships have been tracking the Iranian ships. However, it's
thought that President Obama would back off on any confrontation with
Iran, just as he did when he flip-flopped over the "red line" he had
set over Syria's use of chemical weapons.

If the Iranian cargo ship reaches port, then it will set a precedent
for future ship convoys delivering "humanitarian aid" to Yemen.

However, the blockade is also being enforced by Saudi Arabia and
Egypt, whose governments are presumably less shy than Obama's. So
once again, we're seeing a game of chicken being played out in the
Mideast. Either Saudi Arabia will back down, or Iran will back down,
or there will be a confrontation on Thursday. Memri and
Debka and NBC News

****
**** In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi
****

As militias from the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
approached Mosul last year, the soldiers in the Iraq army dropped
their weapons and fled for their lives, leaving behind large
storehouses of weapons that had been supplied by the United States.

When Iraq army soldiers fled for their lives last week as the ISIS
militias approached Ramadi, they once again left behind storehouses of
US-supplied weapons, according to Pentagon spokesman Steve Warren.

Fortunately, the haul was smaller this time, according to Warren. He
estimated that a half dozen tanks were abandoned, a similar number of
artillery pieces, a larger number of armored personnel carriers and
about 100 wheeled vehicles like Humvees. He said some of the vehicles
were in working condition; others were not because they had not been
moved for months. AP

****
**** Report: Saudi Arabia seeking nuclear weapons from Pakistan
****

Reports citing unnamed senior American officials say that the Saudis
have "taken the 'strategic decision' to acquire 'off-the-shelf' atomic
weapons from Pakistan."

The Saudis are refusing to comment on the report, but in a March
statement on the same subject, Saudi ambassador Adel Al-Jubeir said:

<QUOTE>"But the kingdom of Saudi Arabia will take whatever
measures are necessary in order to protect its security. There are
two things over which we do not negotiate: our faith and our
security."<END QUOTE>

If true, this would certainly not be an unexpected turn of events. As
we wrote last week ( "15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting"
), the United States has been the guarantor of Saudi
security for decades. When ambassador Al-Jubeir made that statement
in March about "security," he was specifically alluding to the
American guarantee. Last week's meeting of the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) at Camp David, hosted by President Obama, was a complete
disaster for Saudi-American relations as Obama, viewed by Mideast
leaders as having no clue what's going on, lectured the GCC leaders
who came that nothing would stop him from going ahead with nuclear
deal with Iran, making any concession he had to make to do so, and the
GCC leaders could like it or lump it.

The Saudis perceive that Obama has acquiesced to permitting Iran to
develop a nuclear weapon, and the Saudis consider that to be an
existential threat to their Kingdom. The logic of the situation
actually requires the Saudis to seek nuclear technology from Pakistan,
since not doing so would risk Saudi security.

So I believe we can say with certainty that the Saudis are at least
exploring the purchase of nuclear technology from Pakistan, but it is
unlikely that a final decision has yet been made.

This is a good time to remind readers what I've been saying for ten
years, that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries
will be enemies of the West, including the U.S., India, Russia and
Iran. The prediction that Iran would be our ally seemed fantastical
when I first wrote about it almost ten years ago, but in the last two
years we've seen it coming true, to my astonishment as well as
everyone else's. CNN and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iran Shahed, Yemen, Al-Hudaydah,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, Vosper, Bandar Abbas,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Russia, Ukraine,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iraq, Mosul, Ramadi, Steve Warren,
Pakistan, Adel Al-Jubeir

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*** 21-May-15 World View -- China's military confronts US surveillance plane in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's military confronts US surveillance plane in South China Sea
• Claims of ISIS activities in Pakistan doubted by officials
• Iran's Supreme Leader rules out any nuclear inspections

****
**** China's military confronts US surveillance plane in South China Sea
****


P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane (FlightGlobal)

In a serious new escalation of tensions between China and the United
States in the South China Sea, China's navy on Wednesday demanded on
eight occasions that an American surveillance plane in the South China
Sea leave the area immediately. The surveillance plane was swooping
over man-made islands that the Chinese military has created with the
apparent intention of building military bases in international waters.

The surveillance mission was top secret, but the confrontation was
revealed because a CNN reporter had been granted permission to join in
the surveillance flight.

The surveillance plan was the US Navy's new Boeing P-8A Poseidon
anti-submarine patrol aircraft. According to the Navy, the new
aircraft "will transform the way the service performs its
anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare, intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance missions for broad area, maritime and
littoral operations.

Last year, a Chinese jet fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet
to a U.S. surveillance plane in
international waters. The incident was reminiscent of an April 2001
encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor smashed into a
U.S. surveillance aircraft in international waters in the South China
Sea. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was
killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan
Island, and its 24 crew members were imprisoned for 10 days.

As we wrote last week,
the US has
has announced that the US military will use its aircraft and Navy
ships to directly confront China in the South China Sea. The US is
conducting its surveillance flights over international waters, but
China is claiming that it has sovereignty over the entire South China
Sea, meaning that regions that have been international waters for
centuries are now being claimed as Chinese sovereign waters.

As I wrote last week, what we're seeing is the kind of tit-for-tat
escalation that leads to full scale war during a generational Crisis
era, when nationalism and xenophobia are at their highest. At some
point, as actions escalate, one side or the other will, by
miscalculation, by accident or by intention, take a military action
that requires a response, and then things can spiral quickly out of
control.

The Chinese themselves certainly understand that. In fact, one of the
Chinese warnings to the US surveillance craft on Wednesday was:

<QUOTE>"This is the Chinese navy ... This is the Chinese navy
... Please go away ... to avoid misunderstanding."<END QUOTE>

One or two "misunderstandings" could lead to full-scale war. CNN and FlightGlobal

****
**** Claims of ISIS activities in Pakistan doubted by officials
****

On May 13, in a suburb of Karachi, the huge port city in the south of
Pakistan, terrorists attacked a bus carrying Shias of the Ismaili
ethnic group. According to the police report, “The gunmen stopped the
bus and first fired at it from outside. Then they entered inside the
bus and opened fire indiscriminately. After that they checked to see
if anyone was left uninjured.” 45 Ismailis were killed, and 24
injured.

The terrorists left behind leaflets written in English accusing Shias
of "barbaric atrocities," and warning "Advent of the Islamic State!"

Jundullah, a splinter group of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan
Taliban) that has supposedly switch allegiance to ISIS , has claimed
responsibility for the attack. However, Pakistan officials
are raising several doubts about the claim.

Jundullah has claimed responsibility in the past for a number of
terrorist activities, and in its statements has vowed to exterminate
all Shia Muslims. However, some of these claims of responsibility
have turned out to be false. Furthermore, this Jundullah organization
claiming responsibility for the Karachi attack is clearly a different
organization than the previous Jundullah of Sunni militants of Iranian
Baloch descent involved in past attacks in Iran’s Seistan-Balochistan
province.

Finally, this Jundullah's relation with ISIS is also called into
question. Any individual or organization in the world can announce
that it's affiliated with ISIS, and this has led to exaggerated claims
that "ISIS is now in 100 countries around the world." But that
doesn't mean that Jundullah or any of these organization has any
actual connection with ISIS, and Pakistani officials are claiming that
investigations have uncovered "no evidence of any money trail of any
kind" showing a connect between ISIS and any Pakistan terrorist
organization.

However, none of that is any comfort to the family and friends of the
people who were killed in Karachi on May 13. In fact, what it seems
to mean is that Pakistan security forces have no idea who committed
the May 13 terror attack, which is not good news when Pakistan seems
increasingly victimized by the very terrorist organizations that its
intelligence services have funded in the past. The News (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (India) and Reuters and Pakistan Today

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader rules out any nuclear inspections
****

As the June 30 deadline approaches for America and the West to reach a
nuclear deal with Iran, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei seems to be confident that he can force the US to make any
concession he wants, because the US is so anxious to get this deal.

On Wednesday, Khamenei announced that he will not permit any
inspections of Iran's military centers, or to talk with nuclear
scientists:

<QUOTE>"As said before, no permission will be given for
inspections of any military centers and for talks with the nuclear
scientists and other sensitive fields of study and intrusion into
their privacy. ...

The flagrant and shameless enemy expects us to allow them to talk
to our scientists and researchers about a fundamental, indigenous
advancement; however, there will absolutely be no such access... I
will not allow foreigners to come in and interrogate the dear and
distinguished scientists and sons of this nation."<END QUOTE>

The comments were broadcast live on state TV. If the
U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are not
given access to Iran's scientists and military centers, Iran will be
able to develop nuclear weapons technology without being detected.
President Obama has guaranteed that deep, thorough IAEA inspections
will be part of any nuclear deal. Reuters and AEI Iran Tracker


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Boeing P-8A Poseidon,
Pakistan, Karachi, Ismailis, Shias, Jundullah, Balochistan,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The comments were broadcast live on state TV. If the
U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are not
given access to Iran's scientists and military centers, Iran will be
able to develop nuclear weapons technology without being detected.
President Obama has guaranteed that deep, thorough IAEA inspections
will be part of any nuclear deal. Reuters and AEI Iran Tracker

None of this should come as a surprise, Obama was an understudy of that naive idiot Richard Lugar. Hopefully he'll realize the errors in logic of his mentor.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> None of this should come as a surprise, Obama was an understudy of
> that naive idiot Richard Lugar. Hopefully he'll realize the errors
> in logic of his mentor.

Logic is not his strong suit.

*** 22-May-15 World View -- Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants
• Iran backs down and allows inspection of aid ship to Yemen

****
**** Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants
****


Aid being brought ashore at a Rohingya camp in Burma (Lowy)

International pressures have forced Indonesia and Malaysia to agree to
shelter as many as 7,000 migrants on their soil. It's estimated that
there are 6,000 to 8,000 migrants in vastly overcrowded boats in the
Andaman Sea off the coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Officials that these three countries are preventing them from reaching
land. When one of the boats is spotted, the authorities supply food,
water and fuel to the hundreds of people on board, and then push the
boat back out into the Andaman Sea, sending it on its way. Some
migrants have been at sea for weeks.

About half of them are economic migrants from Bangladesh, trying to
reach Malaysia, where it's thought that there's a need for day
laborers.

The other half are Rohingya Muslim migrants who have lived peacefully
in Myanmar (Burma) for generations, but are now being slaughtered and
driven from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin
Wirathu. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is
building into an extremely bloody and genocidal generational crisis
war, where huge numbers of both Buddhists and Muslims will be killed
before it ends.

Neither Indonesia and Malaysia have wanted to allow the migrants to
land on their soil. They offered "humanitarian aid" to some of the
boats approaching land by boarding the ship, providing food, water and
fuel, and then towing the boat back out into the midst of
the Andaman.

The boats are extremely filthy and crowded, and there have been
numerous deaths in months of being trapped out in the sea, facing
illness and starvation. Human rights advocates around the world have
been sharply criticizing the governments of Thailand, Indonesia and
Malaysia for allowing the situation to continue.

Under the new agreement, Indonesia and Malaysia will allow up to 7,000
migrants to land, where they will be sheltered for up to a year.

Thailand has refused to join in this agreement, and will treat any
migrants as illegal, subject to deportation.

Myanmar (Burma) does not recognize Rohingyas as Thai citizens, even
though they've lived there for generations. Myanmar is considered by
many to be the core problem that created the migrant crisis.
According to the US State Dept:

<QUOTE>"What needs to change here is that the Rohingya need
to feel welcome in the country of their birth, in the country of
their parents’ birth, of their grandparents’ birth. They need to
be treated as citizens with dignity and human
rights."<END QUOTE>

However, Burma will not even recognize the name "Rohingya," instead
calling them "Bangladeshis." According to a Burmese official:

<QUOTE>"If we recognize the name, then they will think they
are citizens of Myanmar ... Myanmar cannot take all the blame for
these people who are now at sea."<END QUOTE>

Activists are also demanding that the "wealthy countries," including
the United States, take in their share of the migrants stuck at sea.
However, Australia is refusing to take any.

The government of the Philippines is saying that it's willing to take
in Rohingya migrants. According to one official, "Let us not fall
short of providing humanitarian relief and assistance that is asked of
us, as we pride ourselves to be a compassionate and hospitable people.
Channel News Asia and Time and Al-Jazeera
and Lowy Interpreter (Australia)

****
**** Iran backs down and allows inspection of aid ship to Yemen
****

As we reported two days ago,
Iran
and Saudi Arabia were headed for a military confrontation, as an
Iranian cargo ship with 2,500 tons of "humanitarian aid," along with
hundreds of passengers, was going to attempt to dock at a port in
Yemen. The cargo ship was accompanied by two Iranian warships. Saudi
Arabia threatened a military confrontation unless the contents of the
cargo ship submitted to inspection.

Iran announced on Thursday that it would dock the ship in Djibouti,
where it would be inspected by the international coalition led by
Saudi Arabia, defusing the crisis.

In addition, Iran announced that its cargo plane carrying humanitarian
aid to Yemen would land in Djibouti for inspection. Press TV (Tehran) and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Rohingya, Buddhists, Muslims,
Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ashin Wirathu, Philippines,
Iran, Yemen, Djibouti

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 22-May-15 World View -- Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants
• Iran backs down and allows inspection of aid ship to Yemen

****
**** Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants
****


Aid being brought ashore at a Rohingya camp in Burma (Lowy)

International pressures have forced Indonesia and Malaysia to agree to
shelter as many as 7,000 migrants on their soil. It's estimated that
there are 6,000 to 8,000 migrants in vastly overcrowded boats in the
Andaman Sea off the coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Officials that these three countries are preventing them from reaching
land. When one of the boats is spotted, the authorities supply food,
water and fuel to the hundreds of people on board, and then push the
boat back out into the Andaman Sea, sending it on its way. Some
migrants have been at sea for weeks.

About half of them are economic migrants from Bangladesh, trying to
reach Malaysia, where it's thought that there's a need for day
laborers.

The other half are Rohingya Muslim migrants who have lived peacefully
in Myanmar (Burma) for generations, but are now being slaughtered and
driven from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin
Wirathu. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is
building into an extremely bloody and genocidal generational crisis
war, where huge numbers of both Buddhists and Muslims will be killed
before it ends.

Neither Indonesia and Malaysia have wanted to allow the migrants to
land on their soil. They offered "humanitarian aid" to some of the
boats approaching land by boarding the ship, providing food, water and
fuel, and then towing the boat back out into the midst of
the Andaman.

The boats are extremely filthy and crowded, and there have been
numerous deaths in months of being trapped out in the sea, facing
illness and starvation. Human rights advocates around the world have
been sharply criticizing the governments of Thailand, Indonesia and
Malaysia for allowing the situation to continue.

Under the new agreement, Indonesia and Malaysia will allow up to 7,000
migrants to land, where they will be sheltered for up to a year.

Thailand has refused to join in this agreement, and will treat any
migrants as illegal, subject to deportation.

Myanmar (Burma) does not recognize Rohingyas as Thai citizens, even
though they've lived there for generations. Myanmar is considered by
many to be the core problem that created the migrant crisis.
According to the US State Dept:

<QUOTE>"What needs to change here is that the Rohingya need
to feel welcome in the country of their birth, in the country of
their parents’ birth, of their grandparents’ birth. They need to
be treated as citizens with dignity and human
rights."<END QUOTE>

However, Burma will not even recognize the name "Rohingya," instead
calling them "Bangladeshis." According to a Burmese official:

<QUOTE>"If we recognize the name, then they will think they
are citizens of Myanmar ... Myanmar cannot take all the blame for
these people who are now at sea."<END QUOTE>

Activists are also demanding that the "wealthy countries," including
the United States, take in their share of the migrants stuck at sea.
However, Australia is refusing to take any.

The government of the Philippines is saying that it's willing to take
in Rohingya migrants. According to one official, "Let us not fall
short of providing humanitarian relief and assistance that is asked of
us, as we pride ourselves to be a compassionate and hospitable people.
Channel News Asia and Time and Al-Jazeera
and Lowy Interpreter (Australia)

****
**** Iran backs down and allows inspection of aid ship to Yemen
****

As we reported two days ago,
Iran
and Saudi Arabia were headed for a military confrontation, as an
Iranian cargo ship with 2,500 tons of "humanitarian aid," along with
hundreds of passengers, was going to attempt to dock at a port in
Yemen. The cargo ship was accompanied by two Iranian warships. Saudi
Arabia threatened a military confrontation unless the contents of the
cargo ship submitted to inspection.

Iran announced on Thursday that it would dock the ship in Djibouti,
where it would be inspected by the international coalition led by
Saudi Arabia, defusing the crisis.

In addition, Iran announced that its cargo plane carrying humanitarian
aid to Yemen would land in Djibouti for inspection. Press TV (Tehran) and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Rohingya, Buddhists, Muslims,
Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ashin Wirathu, Philippines,
Iran, Yemen, Djibouti

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The Buddhists are genocidally murdering the Muslims, meanwhile over across the Indian Ocean the Muslims are killing each other, meanwhile only the good old Filipino Catholics are opening their arms. Oh, this is so awkward for the Post Modernist Western Elite narrative. Hey Eric, how's them apples?

*** 23-May-15 World View -- After ISIS terrorist attack, Saudis face conflict between stability and reforms

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS claims responsibility for major terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia
• As ISIS grows, Saudis face conflict between stability and reforms

****
**** ISIS claims responsibility for major terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia
****


Aftermath of bombing of Shia mosque in al-Qadeeh on Friday (AFP)

A suicide bomber entered a Shia mosque in the village of al-Qadeeh
(Qatif) in eastern Saudi Arabia on Friday when it was packed with
worshippers during Friday prayers. He detonated his vest, killing 21
people and wounding dozens, in the worst terrorist attack in Saudi
Arabia since 2003.

The Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed responsibility
for the attack in a statement that said it would not rest until all
Shias were driven from the Arabian Peninsula.

Saudi Arabia has declared ISIS to be a terrorist organization. When
the Saudi branch of ISIS was formed in November, ISIS leader Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi, declared war on the country. He did not refer to it as
Saudi Arabia, since this is a name derived from the ruling tribe, the
al-Saud, whose authority ISIS does not accept. Instead he called it
"the land of Haramayn", the land of the two holy places, meaning Mecca
and Medina.

In April, Saudi Arabia arrested 93 people suspected of belonging to
ISIS, and foiled several plots, according to the interior ministry.
Daily Star (Lebanon) and BBC (14-Nov-2014)
and BBC (28-Apr)

****
**** As ISIS grows, Saudis face conflict between stability and reforms
****

The new suicide bombings at the Shia mosque in al-Qadeeh once again
sharpens the conflict in Saudi Arabia between the conflicting needs
for reforms and stability. Saudi officials attempt to modernize the
countries with reforms such as giving women additional freedoms and
rights, but these reforms bring riots and violence from Salafist
activists in the country.

In 1979, there were two major political earthquakes in the Muslim
world, with special effect on Saudi Arabia. One of them was Iran's
Great Islamic Revolution, which removed from Iran the Shah, who was an
ally of both the US and the Saudis, and replaced him with Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, a hardline Shia Muslim who was both anti-American
and anti-Saudi. The second was Russia's invasion of Afghanistan,
which pitted the Orthodox Christians against the Muslims.

Both of these events stirred strong Salafist activism in Saudi Arabia,
and Saudi officials resolved their internal problems by encouraging
the Salafist jihadists to travel to Afghanistan to join al-Qaeda to
fight the Russians. Osama bin Laden became leader of al-Qaeda at this
time. This worked reasonably well while the war was ongoing, but
after the war ended, these jihadists returned to Saudi Arabia and
demanded austere implementations of Sharia law.

A primary objective of al-Qaeda has always been to repeat Iran's 1979
Great Islamic Revolution in a Sunni Muslim country. Al-Qaeda has
attempted, and continues to attempt, to destabilize governments in
countries in the Mideast, Asia and North Africa, attempting to spark
an internal civil war somewhere that will result in a hardline Sunni
Islamic Revolution in that country.

A major shock to the Saudis occurred with the al-Qaeda attack on
America on 11-Sep-2001, for which Saudi Arabia was blamed.

This shock was topped on 12-May-2003 by "Saudi Arabia's 9/11," when
over a dozen al-Qaeda linked suicide bombers attacked compounds in
Saudi Arabia's capital city Riyadh, killing 35 people, wounding
hundreds. This attack brought home to the Saudis that jihadist
terrorist was an existential threat to Saudi Arabia itself.

Friday's attack by ISIS in al-Qadeeh is the worst terrorist attack in
Saudi Arabia since the 2003 attack. For Saudi Arabia's new king,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, the attack is a threat to his crown and
his country, and heightens the concern about the growing power of
ISIS. BBC (Nov 2014) and CNN (Nov 2003)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, al-Qadeeh, Qatif,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Iran, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini,
Russia, Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud

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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

The Buddhists are genocidally murdering the Muslims, meanwhile over across the Indian Ocean the Muslims are killing each other, meanwhile only the good old Filipino Catholics are opening their arms. Oh, this is so awkward for the Post Modernist Western Elite narrative. Hey Eric, how's them apples?

It's the Burmese government, one of the worst thug regimes in existence. The Buddha would strongly disapprove of the Burmese government.

Gangster regimes typically neglect the kinder and gentler parts of the religious heritage and instead use identity as an excuse for exploitation and abuse.

There's nothing post-modern about that.

*** 24-May-15 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims
• Burma's government vacillates between repression (stability) and reforms (human rights)
• Lessons learned from Ireland's vote on gay marriage

****
**** Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims
****


Ethnic Rohingya women and children gather to receive a meal in Indonesia on Saturday (AP)

President Thein Sein of Myanmar (Burma) has signed into law the
Population Control Health Care Bill, to require mothers to have their
children at least three years apart. Nominally, the purpose of the
bill is to "protect women's health," but opponents say that it's
designed to target Rohingya Muslims.

The law doesn't provide punishment for parents who do not comply, but
it gives local authorities the power to take whatever steps are
necessary to implement the law. Human rights activists say that this
gives a blank check local police to take harsh measures with Rohingya
families.

Rohingya Muslim migrants have lived peacefully in Myanmar (Burma) for
generations, but are now being slaughtered and driven from their homes
by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. Some 140,000 have
been herded into dirty apartheid-like camps. Thousands of Rohingya
have fled Burma. An estimated 2000 Rohingya migrants are have been
trapped for over 40 days in crowded boats off the coast in the Bay of
Bengal. Thousands more are in boats further south in the Andaman Sea,
where they have been trying to reach shore in Thailand, Indonesia or
Malaysia. However, officials in those three countries have been
pushing the boats back out to sea when they approach shore, although
an agreement last week may permit up to 7,000 to be sheltered
temporarily.

The new Population Control law was enacted in response to the demands
of hard-line Buddhists who have repeatedly warned that Muslims, with
their high birthrates, could take over the country of 50 million even
though they currently represent less than 10 percent of the
population.

However, human rights activists warn that this attitude is racist and
anti-Muslim, and that the new law will "exacerbate ethnic and
religious divisions and undermine the country's efforts to promote
tolerance and diversity." AP and AFP

****
**** Burma's government vacillates between repression (stability) and reforms (human rights)
****

Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were
extremely bloody and violent civil wars between ethnic groups. (See
"Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
from
2007, for a generational history of Burma.)

Any country that goes through a crisis civil war faces the problem, in
the decades that follow, of preventing old hatreds to lead to a
renewal of that civil war. For that reason, it's fairly common for
the military to take control of the government after the civil war
ends, and to use military and police power to try to control riots and
demonstrations, fearing that they will destabilize the country and
lead to a new civil war.

So in 2008, as the 20th anniversary of the 1988 massacre approached,
there were massive new demonstrations in Rangoon (Yangon), led by
monks and nuns, as well as many ordinary citizens. Burma's military
junta ordered thousands of troops into the streets of Rangoon.
Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in
government crematoriums. Thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the
protests to begin with, were rounded up and detained. Some were found
floating face down in rivers. This repression was done in order to
promote "stability."

The result was an enormous international backlash, along with economic
sanctions. This caused the pendulum to move away from repression
(stability) back towards reforms, including free elections and freedom
of expression. The purpose of these reforms is to promote "human
rights."

However, the end of repression unleashed a lot of hatred that had been
bottled up since the 1950s generational crisis civil war. New
protests began appearing in the northern provinces of Kachin and Shan,
and earlier this year we reported

on fighting between Burma's army and ethnic Chinese in Burma's Kokang
Special Region.

Now Burma's government is again moving away from reforms (human
rights) and back in the direction of repression (stability) with the
new Population Control law. The parliament is consider additional
bills relating to monogamy, religious conversion and interfaith
marriage. These laws are also being demanded by hardline Buddhists
with an anti-Muslim agenda.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this vacillation
between repression and reforms never succeeds in bringing peace. As
the generations of survivors of the last crisis civil war die off, and
the country enters a new generational Crisis era, there is a huge, new
bloody civil war. Deutsche Welle and Economist

****
**** Lessons learned from Ireland's vote on gay marriage
****

Ireland's referendum on gay marriage has passed overwhelmingly,
despite being bitterly opposed by the Catholic Church. It seems that
Irish Catholics can overwhelmingly call themselves Catholics, go to
Church every Sunday and still completely ignore the teachings of the
Pope. This has been true in the case of contraceptives for years.

The lesson to be learned is that you can't depend on churches,
synagogues, mosques or politicians to tell you how people think and
behave. Millions of Muslims may pray in mosques where they're taught
jihadism, but that doesn't mean that they're all jihadists. Other
methods must be used to determine what the populations and different
generations of people in a country think, and how they will behave
when they're forced to make difficult choices. Irish Times and Religion News Service

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Thein Sein, Rohingya,
Population Control Health Care Bill, Ashin Wirathu,
Kachin, Shan, Kokang Special Region, China,
Ireland, Catholic Church

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Having a protracted, unresolved Crisis Era is one of the worst things that a nation can endure. All that could be worse is the obliteration of the people of that nation. I see the genocide against the Rohingya people as the sort of thing that a country willing to murder its 'own' people for reasonable and reasoned dissent. I'm not going to say that the Night of the Long Knives led directly to the gas chambers or crematoria of Nazi death camps -- but a regime that can kill its own for trivial reasons that can kill people that it sees as pariahs. Wrong religion or race? One might contemplate finding another country.

*** 25-May-15 World View -- Scathing Iraq remarks by Ash Carter suggest imminent policy change

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US administration's strategy in Iraq continues to fail
• Obama administration's rhetoric changes dramatically on Sunday
• Some reports suggest intentional loss of Ramadi by Iraq's government

****
**** US administration's strategy in Iraq continues to fail
****


Iraqis fleeing Ramadi on Sunday (AP)

Last year, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) stunned the
world by seizing Mosul in Iraq. The Iraqi soldiers who were supposed
to defend Mosul simply dropped their weapons and fled as the ISIS
militias approached.

President Barack Obama had withdrawn all troops from Iraq in December
2011, and had assured the world that Iraq could take care of itself,
without needing American troops. However, as ISIS scored major
victories in Iraq, Obama was forced to change his position. On June
19, he said:

<QUOTE>"We're prepared to send a small number of additional
American advisors, up to 300, to assess how we can best train,
advise and support Iraqis security force forces going forward I
think we always have to guard against mission creep, so let me
repeat what I've said in the past -- American combat troops are
not going to be fighting in Iraq again."<END QUOTE>

Since then, President Obama has been forced to announce several
increases in troop deployments, though always special forces and not
"ground troops."

There have also been American airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, but many
analysts say that they're almost completely ineffective. Some reports
indicate that the pilots often return to base without having launched
any airstrikes because of a lack of suitable targets.

One of the reasons that suitable airstrike targets cannot be
identified is that Obama has not permitted US soldiers to be on the
ground acting as "forward air controllers," who identify the targets
on the ground then communicate their locations to the aircraft.

In the last two weeks, ISIS has scored several additional stunning
victories.

On Sunday, ISIS took full control of a border crossing between Iraq
and Syria. Earlier, ISIS captured the historic city of Palmyra in
Syria, and the city of Ramadi in Iraq. This gives ISIS full control
of the two main roads between Syria and Iraq's province of Anbar.
The National (UAE) and Economist

****
**** Obama administration's rhetoric changes dramatically on Sunday
****

Initially, President Obama referred to the stunning seizure of Ramadi
as a temporary "tactical setback," but on Sunday, the tone of the
rhetoric from the Obama administration changed sharply. Secretary of
Defense Ashton Carter, appearing on CNN, gave a scathing criticism of
Iraq's army after its defeat in Ramadi:

<QUOTE>"What apparently happened was that the Iraqi forces
just showed no will to fight. They were not outnumbered but in
fact they vastly outnumbered the opposing force, and yet they
failed to fight. They withdrew from the site. And that says to me,
and I think to most of us, that we have an issue with the will of
the Iraqis to fight ISIL and defend themselves.

Now, we can give them training, we can give them equipment; we
obviously can't give them the will to fight. But if we give them
training, we give them equipment and give them support and give
them some time, I hope they will develop the will to fight,
because only if they fight can ISIL remain defeated."<END QUOTE>

Carter also agreed that airstrikes have not been very effective:

<QUOTE>"Air strikes are effective but neither they nor really
anything we do can substitute for the Iraqi forces' will to fight.

They're the ones who have that to beat ISIL and keep then keep
them beaten. We can participate in the defeat of ISIL but we can't
make Iraq run as a decent place for people to live. We can't
sustain the victory. Only the Iraqis can do that, and in
particular, in this case, the Sunni tribes to the west.

If there comes a time when we need to change the kinds of support
we're giving to the Iraqi forces, we'll make that recommendation.
But what happened at Ramadi was a failure of the Iraqi forces to
fight. And so our efforts now are devoted to providing their
ground forces with the equipment, the training, and to try to
encourage their will to fight so that our campaign enabling them
can be successful both in defeating ISIL and keeping ISIL defeated
in a sustained way."<END QUOTE>

During Sunday's interview, Carter said that there are still no plans
to use forward air controllers.

On the Sunday talk shows, both Democrats and Republicans criticized
Obama's strategy in Iraq, with several calling the situation "a
stalemate." One Democrat urged Obama to supply the Kurdish Peshmerga
and Sunni tribesmen in Iraq, who she said are "literally begging, for
arms, heavy weapons and ammunition" to defeat ISIS and protect their
land and families.

One Republican, Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, called for much more
aggressive military action:

<QUOTE>"You are not losing and you are not winning because we
are not really engaged in this fight.

At some point, we're going to have to understand that the goal is
the destruction of ISIS. ... We have to understand that every day
that goes by where we don't push this cancer back ... the cost of
liberating Iraq or the cost of defeating this cancer is only going
to increase."<END QUOTE>

The scathing, undiplomatic criticism of Iraq's army by the Secretary
of Defense, combined with criticisms of Obama from all sides, suggests
that there is going to be a significant change of policy in the next
few days. However, he will certainly try anything rather than ground
troops, as that would be the ultimate humiliation after having
suffered a long string of foreign policy humiliations, one after the
other. CNN and The National (UAE) and Fox News

****
**** Some reports suggest intentional loss of Ramadi by Iraq's government
****

There are some reports that indicate that ISIS's seizure of Ramadi was
accomplished with the help of Iraq's government in Baghdad, or at
least with its intentional neglect.

According to a top Kurdish commander who fought the ISIS militias in
Ramadi, he had received intelligence five days before the attack on
Ramadi that 400 armed ISIS vehicles had entered Iraq from Syria, and
at least 200 were headed for Ramadi. The commander asked his
superiors in Baghdad to arrange for airstrikes to take out the
vehicles, which would presumably have been easy targets. But no air
strikes occurred.

Instead, ISIS sent 50 suicide bombers into the Iraq army defense
lines. The suicide bombers had arrived from Syria. After that,
seizing Ramadi was an easy victory for ISIS.

According to one Iraqi analyst, Baghdad's support of the Ramadi
defenses was so bad, it must have been intentional. He suggests that
any support for the Iraq army and the Sunni tribes in Ramadi would
require giving weapons to Sunnis, which Baghdad did not want to do.
Instead, Baghdad wanted the entire operation against ISIS to be
conducted by Shia militias under the command of Iran's Al Qods
Brigades commander Qassam Soleimani.

Arguing against this analysis is the fact that Soleimani was handily
defeated by ISIS at the battle of Tikrit, and was forced to flee back
to Tehran. Bringing him back to lead the fight in Ramadi would have
to be considered a big risk. Rudaw (Iraq)
and Middle East Briefing

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tikrit, Ramadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Palmyra, Ashton Carter, Adam Kinzinger,
Iran, Al Qods Brigades, Qassam Soleimani

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*** 26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the Gulf of Tonkin
• China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable
• China's military using jamming against US drones in South China Sea
• China's media describes 'bottom line' for war with US

****
**** Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the Gulf of Tonkin
****


Anti-Chinese environment activists in Manila protest in front of the Chinese embassy, shooting Chinese flags with water guns (Reuters)

Vietnam is protesting China's unilateral ban on fishing in Vietnamese
waters that include the Gulf of Tonkin, nominally "to promote the
sustainable development of the fishing industry." The ban will last
until August 1.

Vietnamese officials are advising their shipping industry to ignore
the ban.

China is claiming that the ban is required for ecological reasons, but
ecological activists in Manila are demanding that China stop its
ecological destruction caused by ongoing activities to build man-made
islands in the South China Sea. Thanh Nien News (Hanoi) and Reuters

****
**** China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable
****

According to commentary in China's Global Times newspaper:

<QUOTE>"If the United States' bottom line is that China has
to halt its activities, then a U.S.-China war is inevitable in the
South China Sea.

The intensity of the conflict will be higher than what people
usually think of as 'friction.'"<END QUOTE>

There are actually two separate (though related) issues here, and it's
unclear whether this threat of war applies to one or both issues.

As we reported last week,
the
level of military tension between the US and China escalated
substantially when China repeatedly demanded that an American P-8A
Poseidon surveillance plane leave the area immediately. The plane was
surveilling China's man-made islands in the Spratly Islands in the
South China Sea.

So the first issue is that China is demanding an end to American
surveillance activities over the Spratly Islands.

The second issue is that the US State Dept. is demanding an end to
China's island-building. According to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
Antony Blinken, speaking in Jakarta last week on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"As China seeks to make sovereign land out of
sandcastles and redraw maritime boundaries, it is eroding regional
trust and undermining investor confidence.

Its behavior threatens to set a new precedent, whereby larger
countries are free to intimidate smaller ones, and that provokes
tensions, instability and can even lead to conflict."<END QUOTE>

China's Foreign Ministry responded:

<QUOTE>"Comments of this sort are not good for the solving of
tensions and are not beneficial for the mutual trust between
countries as well as maintaining the peace and the stability of
the South China Sea region."<END QUOTE>

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive
military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's
claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China
refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

In recent months, China has repeated escalated the military aggression
by using land reclamation projects to construct man-made islands for
military bases and airports in regions surrounding the Spratly Islands
that have previously belonged to Vietnam and the Philippines.

The US says that it will continue surveillance missions over
international waters. However, the Chinese claim that the entire
South China Sea is their sovereign territory, so there are no
international waters.

On Thursday of last week, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel
said that U.S. naval forces and military aircraft would "continue to
fully exercise" the right to operate in international waters and
airspace:

<QUOTE>"Nobody in their right mind is going to try to stop
the U.S. Navy from operating - that would not be a good bet.

But it’s not enough that a U.S. military plane can overfly
international waters, even if there is challenge or hailing query
... We believe that every country and all civilian actors should
have unfettered access to international waters and international
airspace."<END QUOTE>

Well, whether the Chinese military leaders are in their right minds is
certainly open to question, but there's little doubt that the Chinese
are, at some point, going to take some military action to stop the
surveillance flights. Global Times and
International Business Times and Al-Jazeera and Reuters

****
**** China's military using jamming against US drones in South China Sea
****

If China is to take the next step in military action against the
United States in the South China Sea, one possible direct target would
Global Hawk surveillance drones as they conduct surveillance over the
Spratly Islands.

The Washington Free Beacon is reporting that China has tried to
electronically jam US drone flights over the South China Sea, in order
to prevent ground stations from communicating with the drones. There
may be an additional objective of trying to capture a drone by getting
it to crash in shallow waters.

Putting on my software engineering hat, I would hope that isn't
possible. When the Global Hawk takes off from Guam, the software
should be programmed to respond to jamming by continuing on
a pre-programmed path to continue surveillance and return to Guam.

When Iran captured an American drone by taking electronic control
while it was traveling over Afghanistan, I could never understand how
that was possible, unless the programmers who wrote the software for
the drone had been so sloppy that they didn't anticipate that
possibility. At any rate, let's hope that there have been "lessons
learned," and that that have been applied to the Global Hawk drones
flying over the South China Sea.

However, electronic warfare is not the only possibility. China's
military could shoot down a drone, or could attempt to snatch
one in flight using a manned aircraft.

If/when China wants to take the next step with a military action
against the United States in the South China Sea, the drones may
present an attractive military target. Washington Free Beacon

****
**** China's media describes 'bottom line' for war with US
****

Because of some confusion surrounding this story, I wanted to get more
information about China's analysis of the situation. I went to the
original Global Times article in Chinese, and got a machine
translation, which is pretty garbled. The following is my attempt to
extract key sentences from the machine translation of the original
article in Chinese:

<QUOTE>"When US reconnaissance aircraft flew over the Spratly
(Nansha) Islands last week, she was repeatedly warned by China's
navy, raising fears in the strategic community and the public of a
possible outbreak of Sino-US military conflict in the South China
Sea. How likely is such a military conflict, and how intense will
it be?

First of all, provocations from the Philippines and Vietnam, with
the support of US troops, make the possibility of Sino-US military
conflict larger than in the past.

China cannot make infinitely many concessions [, and so will make
no more concessions beyond its bottom line]. Then we will see how
the United States sets their own bottom line, and whether the two
sides can understand and respect each other's bottom line.

For China, the most important bottom line is to make the
construction of the reefs continue until they are completed.

If the United States' bottom line is that China has to shut down
its construction of the reefs, then a U.S.-China war is inevitable
in the South China Sea. The intensity of the conflict will be
higher than what people usually think of as 'friction.'

In addition China has a bottom line, that the United States must
respect China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and
interests in the South China Sea.

If the US continues to 'harass' China with American forces in the
South China Sea, but shows restraint, then China will also show
restraint.

But if the US military says that China is arrogant, and continues
its provocative acts of public humiliation, then a conflict will
be difficult to avoid. The Chinese army will fight for dignity.

China's determination to complete the reefs is very clear and
firm. But the strategic goal of the United States is relatively
vague. Whether there is peace or war in the South China Sea
depends on the United States.

A US military aircraft or warship may use an 'accident' to provoke
a war. This is like the year before the outbreak of the Vietnam
War, when the US concocted a 'Gulf of Tonkin incident.'

US troops in the South China Sea seem arrogant, but they do not
have underlying political and social support. This is clearly up
and down the US military, so the Chinese saying, 'paper tiger' in
fact refers to this situation."<END QUOTE>

The Global Times is the most nationalistic of government publications,
and it doesn't always reflect official policy, but it does reflect
what many in China's government are thinking.

As I've been saying for years, China has been rapidly building its
military for years with a variety of weapons and missile systems that
have no other purpose than to preemptively strike American aircraft
carriers, American military bases, and American cities. Generational
Dynamics predicts that China is preparing to launch a pre-emptive
full-scale nuclear missile attack on the United States. There may not
be a war tomorrow, but every week or two it becomes apparent that the
trend toward war is unmistakable. Global Times (Chinese) (Translation)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, Gulf of Tonkin,
South China Sea, Spratly Islands, Nansha Islands, Daniel Russel,
Antony Blinken, Guam, Global Hawk drones, Philippines

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*** 27-May-15 World View -- Major terror attack in Kabul underscores dire Afghan travel warning

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• State Dept. issues alarming Afghanistan travel warning
• Afghan militia strategy revives hostility and conflicts of 1990s crisis civil war
• Hackers obtain IRS tax filings for 104,000 taxpayers

****
**** State Dept. issues alarming Afghanistan travel warning
****


Afghan security forces patrol in Kunduz, Afghanistan, on April 30 (Reuters)

The State Dept. on Friday issued a dire travel warning for Afghanistan
that indicates that the security situation is unstable across the
entire country. This warning goes much farther than any previous
administration statements about Afghanistan:

<QUOTE>"The U.S. government remains highly concerned about
possible attacks on U.S. citizens (whether visiting or residing in
Afghanistan), U.S. facilities, businesses, and perceived U.S. and
foreign interests. Attacks may target official government convoys
and compounds, including Afghan and U.S. government facilities,
foreign embassies and military installations, as well as
restaurants, hotels, airports, non-governmental organization (NGO)
offices, international organizations, religious institutions,
educational centers, foreign guest houses, and other commercial
entities.

Extremists associated with various Taliban networks and members of
other armed opposition groups are active in every province of the
country. Despite numerous security operations and checkpoints by
Afghan and coalition forces in and around the capital, Kabul is at
high risk for militant attacks, including vehicle-borne improvised
explosive devices (VBIED), direct and indirect fire, and suicide
bombings. The same risks also exist in other major cities in
Afghanistan, including Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, and Kandahar. A
strong possibility for hostile acts exists throughout the country
at all times, either targeted or random, against both U.S. and
other foreign nationals. An ongoing risk of kidnapping exists
throughout Afghanistan."<END QUOTE>

The dire warning indicates that provinces across the country are
unstable, and that even heavily protected areas in the capital
city Kabul are unsafe.

This point was underscored late Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning,
when heavily armed militants stormed an upscale, heavily protected
neighborhood in Kabul, resulting in a fierce gun battle and at least
20 explosions. At this writing, the attack is still ongoing.

The new travel advisory represents a major change in position by the
administration, essentially admitting that the withdrawal plan from
Afghanistan is not working. It comes at the same time that Secretary
of Defense Ashton Carter admitted that the Iraq plan is not working,
because "the Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight." Both
announcements were made over the Memorial Day weekend. U.S. State Department and AP

****
**** Afghan militia strategy revives hostility and conflicts of 1990s crisis civil war
****

Afghanistan's increasing instability as American troops withdraw
is causing the government in Kabul to change strategies. It's
increasingly clear that the Afghan army is not able to prevent
attacks by insurgents.

As a result, Kabul is reviving the conflicts of the extremely bloody
Afghanistan generational crisis civil war, fought between 1991 and
1996. That war was fought mainly between the Pashtuns in southern
Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks
in northern Afghanistan.

Today's Taliban terrorists are radicalized Pashtuns. And so, in
northern Afghanistan, the Kabul government is calling on militias from
the old Northern Alliance to come forward and fight their old Pashtun
foes. The effort is expected to mobilize thousands of Afghans from
the Northern Alliance to fight against the Pashtun Taliban.

Some analysts are concerned that this will trigger a new major civil
war. But Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, so a new
crisis civil war is impossible. The 1990s civil war was extremely
bloody and genocidal, and there are several generations of survivors
of that war who are still alive and will prevent anything like it from
happening again.

However, that doesn't mean that reviving the Northern Alliance will
bring peace. It will bring the usual post-civil war template of
periods of conflict alternating with periods of each. Each period of
conflict will be worse than the previous one, and each will end with
some peace agreement that will bring peace for a few years. That's
what almost always happen in any country after a civil war. The
alternating periods of conflict and peace continue for decades, until
finally all the survivors of the preceding crisis civil war are gone,
and then a new bloody genocidal crisis civil war breaks out again.
Hindustan Times and International Business Times

****
**** Hackers obtain IRS tax filings for 104,000 taxpayers
****

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced that hackers obtained the
tax returns of approximately 104,000 taxpayers. The hackers
apparently used names and social security numbers that had been
obtained from previous hacks. They used that information in the IRS
"Get Transcript" application to get entire transcripts of previous tax
return filings.

Once the hackers obtain a taxpayer's tax filings, they can use it to
apply for fraudulent incomes, in addition to using the information
from the tax filing to defraud the taxpayer.

The IRS believes that the hacking began some time in February, though
they didn't notice it until mid-May.

The IRS has been repeatedly warned by experts that its data security
systems are inadequate. Accounting Today and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, State Dept., Pashtun, Taliban,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Internal Review Service, IRS

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The Northern Alliance is completely infiltrated by the SVR. Might as well call it Soviet Invasion 2.0.