*** 7-Jun-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia shoots down Scud missile from Houthis in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia shoots down Scud missile from Houthis in Yemen
• Who's causing the humanitarian crisis in Yemen?
• Europeans rescue 3,000 migrants on Saturday, fear hundreds of thousands more

****
**** Saudi Arabia shoots down Scud missile from Houthis in Yemen
****


Young Yemenis in anti-Saudi demonstrations in Sanaa

In a new, potentially major escalation of the war in Yemen,
Iran-backed Shia Houthi militias in Yemen fired a Scud missile across
the border with Saudi Arabia, targeting the King Khalid Air Base in
the city of Khamis Mushait, about 100 km north of the Yemen border.

The Saudis launched two missiles from a Patriot missile battery, and
shot the Scud missile down with no reported casualties.

However, the Houthis are calling it a symbolic victory, because it
shows that the Saudi air strikes have not been effective, and it shows
that the Houthis still have enough firepower to attack Saudi villages
and bases. It's believed that the Houthis have a stockpile of some
300 Scud missiles, though some of those may have been destroyed by
Saudi air strikes.

At the same time, fighting along the border between Yemen and Saudi
Arabia has been increasing. The Saudis responded to the Scud missile
attack by a new surge in airstrikes at Houthi targets in Yemen, along
the Saudi border and in the capital city Sanaa.

As we've been describing for a long time, the Mideast is headed for a
massive war of Shias versus Sunnis, Arabs versus Persians, and Jews
versus Muslims. Ever since the "Arab awakening" in 2011, the Mideast
has become more and more inflamed.

The United Nations has called for peace talks to begin next week.
This is great news, because this will settle the Yemen war, just as
previous peace talks have resolved the wars in Iraq, Syria and
Ukraine. Reuters and AP and AFP

****
**** Who's causing the humanitarian crisis in Yemen?
****

Everyone agrees that there's a humanitarian disaster in progress
in Yemen, with nearly 80% of the population in urgent need
of food, water and medical aid. But the ideological war is
whether the humanitarian crisis is the fault of the Houthis
or the Saudis.

According to the liberal Guardian, the Saudis are at fault:

<QUOTE>"[The humanitarian crisis] has been dramatically
worsened by a naval blockade imposed by an Arab coalition with US
and British backing.

Washington and London have quietly tried to persuade the Saudis,
who are leading the coalition, to moderate its tactics, and in
particular to ease the naval embargo, but to little effect. A
small number of aid ships is being allowed to unload but the bulk
of commercial shipping, on which the desperately poor country
depends, are being blocked. ...

The desperate shortage of food, water and medical supplies raises
urgent questions over US and UK support for the Arab coalition’s
intervention in the Yemeni civil war since March. Washington
provides logistical and intelligence support through a joint
planning cell established with the Saudi military, who are leading
the campaign. London has offered to help the Saudi military effort
in “every practical way short of engaging in combat”.

On western urging, Riyadh had promised to move towards
“intelligence-led interdiction”, stopping and searching individual
ships on which there was good reason to believe arms were being
smuggled, and away from a blanket policy of blocking the majority
of vessels approaching Yemeni ports. But aid agencies and shipping
sources say there is little sign of any such change. UN sources
say that only 15% of the pre-crisis volume of imports is getting
through, and that the country depends on imports for nine-tenths
of its food. ...

At Al Hudaydah on Yemen’s west coast, the only major port still
functioning, a trickle of humanitarian food supplies is arriving
on a handful of aid ships allowed through the naval blockade each
week, but many more ships are being turned away or made to wait
many days to be searched for weapons."<END QUOTE>

According to the Arab News, the United Nations and the Houthis are at
fault:

<QUOTE>"One source confirmed that more than 200 licensed
ships were allowed to deliver aid and that not all the ships were
inspected as many are believed not to be linked to the rebels. The
source added that many ships are using the Djibouti port, which
the United Nations — not Saudi Arabia, Egypt or the US —
supervises and grants licenses accordingly.

The inspection forces may have delayed the passage of the ships
but they haven’t prevented them from passing and have not
confiscated their cargo. ...

The Saudi-led coalition forces know that the rebels are
intentionally obstructing aid in order to stir international
public opinion at the expense of the Yemeni people, whom they’ve
taken hostage. Hospital operations have been disrupted due to
rebels obstructing the delivery of fuel. Millions of people in
several cities and towns lack drinking water because they ran out
of the diesel necessary for generators to pump water. Meanwhile,
the military power of the Houthis and Saleh’s forces has not been
obstructed as they are stealing fuel to operate their vehicles and
are in control of food storage centers. They’ve also seized aid
routes in the center of the country and are transferring this aid
to areas in their control.

When I asked a source as to why international organizations do not
blame the Houthis and Saleh’s forces for this humanitarian crisis,
he said it’s because they do not want to cut ties with them and
because they fear for their employees and activities in Yemen,
considering that these rebels are gangs that do not hesitate to
kill whoever criticizes or defies them."<END QUOTE>

It's clear that both of these accounts are completely biased,
in opposite directions.

One expects the Arab News to be biased. After all, the Arab
coalition is one party to the war, and their press is going to
be biased in their favor.

But the Guardian is supposed to be a mainstream media source, based in
London. So why is the Guardian just as biased as the Arab News? Why
does the Guardian account read like it was from the Tehran Times?

More broadly, why are all the mainstream liberal news sources -- the
Guardian, the NY Times, NBC News, etc., so completely biased that it's
almost impossible to trust anything they write? We know that
Generation-Xers have been extremely dishonest as politicians and as
bankers, so I suppose we should expect it of journalists as well.

As for mainstream conservative news sources, there are fewer choices.
Fox News covers mostly American political news, which I tend to
avoid. And the London Telegraph is behind a limited paywall.

My job every day in my World View column is that when I write about a
subject is to read media sources from all points of view, and try to
figure out who's telling the truth. Usually I do pretty well, but it
would be easier if I could depend on journalists who act like
professional adults instead of screwed up children. The Guardian (London) and Arab News (Riyadh)

****
**** Europeans rescue 3,000 migrants on Saturday, fear hundreds of thousands more
****

Vessels from Germany, Ireland, Britain and Italy rescued over 3,400
migrants on Saturday. There were about 15 individual rescues, mostly
200-300 nautical miles south of Italy, in international waters near
Libya.

According to one analyst, there's a big surge every weekend. The
reason is that the weekend starts in Libya on Thursday evening, and
then there are fewer people on the streets and beaches, making it much
easier for the migrant smugglers to launch their boats on Friday and
Saturday. There may be thousands of migrants rescued on the weekend,
but during the week, there are usually just a few hundred every day.

Europeans are bracing for an even bigger surge of migrants as the
summer continues. There are reportedly 450,000 to 500,000 migrants
already in Libya, waiting to make the crossing to Europe. They've
already each paid thousands of dollars to the smugglers, and are
waiting their turns to make the crossing. The migrants are put onto
overcrowded boats, and they're told to sink them as soon as they see
another vessel, so that they'll have to be rescued. Guardian (London) and Al Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Scud, Patriot Missile,
Khamis Mushait, King Khalid Air Base, Houthis, Iran,
Germany, Ireland, Britain, Italy, Libya

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Actually, all these security experts say the same thing. You can lock
down your computer in all sorts of ways, use all sorts of anti-malware
software, but the weak component in the organization's network is the
human being. In the Sony case and in the Anthem case, and probably in
the OMB case, the hacker got in through a spear phishing attack --
crafting an e-mail message that fooled someone into clicking on
malware. Now, with that huge data base of information available to
them, they have plenty of information at hand to fool a lot more
people in a lot more organizations.

I've gotten fake emails from someone being an imposter of:
1. UPS about packages. These have a URL to click. When I mouse over the URL, it has some strange location.
2. Toll roads. Known fakes. I don't use toll roads. These usually have some zip file attached. Thunderbird shows the name(s) of the attached files. .zip files seam weird to begin with...
3. Assorted large banks. The also feature some URL pointing to some strange location.

You are correct, Malwarebytes doesn't really do much for this stuff. I just mark them as spam in Thunderbird and delete the email. In general, the thing I don't like is a lot of internet sites want you to make an account before you can use them. I also don't like it when I can't remove an account. The only thing I know to do when that happens is to look for a different site to do business with.

Btw, cell phone calls have a problem like this. I get phone calls from weird area codes. I just don't answer those because they run up minutes for one and if I look up the number it's about stuff like :
a. Vehicle warranties - probably cover nothing
b. "free" cruises - Can't be free because I live 100 miles to the nearest airport for one.
c. Credit cards - I don't need another credit card. I also don't care to give out personal info to some cold caller.
d. I'm on the do not call list so reputable companies wouldn't be calling anyhow.

I would just warn everyone not to be complacent about this. Anyone
can be fooled by a very good spear phishing message. You have to be
paranoid 24 hours a day. One bad click is all it takes.

It appears that these sort of attacks are on their way of rendering email as a way of transmitting anything but plain text irrelevant. URL's , attachments, macros?, etc. are becoming a minefield.

Here's a way to just get to the plain text option now:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutt_%28email_client%29

*** 8-Jun-15 World View -- In major election setback, Turkey's Erdogan loses support as Kurds gain seats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israeli residents near Gaza border expect war soon
• Israel launches fresh air strikes on Gaza
• In major election setback, Turkey's Erdogan loses support as Kurds gain seats

****
**** Israeli residents near Gaza border expect war soon
****


Hamas tunnel (Memri)

Israeli residents who live near the Gaza border can hear the sounds of
tunnels being dug underground, and the digging goes on 24 hours a day.
The residents blame Israel's Defense Forces (IDF). According to one
resident:

<QUOTE>"Very simply, the IDF didn’t do the job the last time.

I’ve also heard of many residents in the area complaining about
hearing digging, so we weren’t surprised that a senior Hamas
official said their people continue to prepare offensive
tunnels. I hope that next time [the army] will properly deal with
the tunnels in a timely fashion instead of waiting until 14
terrorists pop out from underground."<END QUOTE>

Many of these residents living on the border were forcibly expelled
from the Gaza Strip in 2005, after the prime minister at the time,
Ariel Sharon, forcibly withdrew all Israeli settlers from Gaza, and
turned the Strip over to the Palestinian government.

<QUOTE>"I keep saying this again and again. It’s been 10
years since we were expelled from [Gaza], and the leadership in
this country - some of whom are alive, some of whom are dead -
promised us we would be safe. Since [leaving Gaza], we’ve absorbed
6,000 mortar bombs and even Qassam rockets, and we didn’t
complain. ...

They promised that there would be quiet in the South and the
entire country. But since we left [Gaza], there have been three
large-scale campaigns - Cast Lead, Pillar of Defense, and
Protective Edge. In the last year, we have seen a trickle of
missile fire and the digging of tunnels, and we may be on the
verge of another military operation."<END QUOTE>

As I've been writing since 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that
there will be a new war between Arabs and Jews, refighting the bloody,
genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Jerusalem Post

****
**** Israel launches fresh air strikes on Gaza
****

Israel's air force launched air strikes at a Hamas training facility
in the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday, in response to a rocket launched
from Gaza at Israel. The rocket landed in the middle of a farmer's
sunflower field, and there were no casualties from either attack.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest, accompanying President Barack
Obama at a G7 summit in Germany, supported the Israeli air strikes:
"Clearly the US stands with the people of Israel as they defend their
people and their nation against these kind of attacks."

The head of the IDF's Southern Command, Maj-Gen Sami Turgeman, says
that Hamas is not responsible for the rocket fire from Gaza:

<QUOTE>"These are isolated rockets fired by terrorists in
Gaza. The rockets explode in open fields and the IDF retaliates to
the incidents but will not launch an operation in the Strip
because of them. The IDF responds in accordance with the
attacks."<END QUOTE>

According to Turgeman, the IDF believes that Hamas wants the calm in
Gaza. The Omar Brigades, a Gaza terror group, took responsibility for
the rocket fire. Reuters and Jerusalem Post

****
**** In major election setback, Turkey's Erdogan loses support as Kurds gain seats
****

The electorate on Sunday surprised Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan by refusing to give his party the re-election margin that he
needed to implement the constitutional changes he was proposing.

Erdogan's AKP (Justice and Development Party) government has won a
parliamentary majority for the last 13 years, giving Erdogan a great
deal of power, which opponents say he's used to become almost a
dictator, suppressing free speech and jailing opposition.

During the campaign, Erdogan asked the voters to give him an even
bigger parliamentary majority, so that he could modify the
constitution to change from a parliamentary government (like Britain)
to a presidential government (like the US), presumably giving himself
even more power. So Sunday's election was probably really a
referendum on Erdogan's increasingly autocratic grab for power.

The loss in support was significant. The AK Party got 49% of the vote
in the 2011 election, but only 41% in Sunday's election. This means
that Erdogan will have to try to form a ruling coalition with another
party. However, some reports indicate that Erdogan feels he was
cheated, and may call for a snap election soon, in the hope of
regaining a majority.

It was significant that the AK Party got only 41% of the vote, but
equally significant was that the Kurdish anti-government far-left
Peoples’ Democratic Party's (HDP) got 12% of the vote, surpassing a
10% threshold that gives the party a significant representation in the
parliament. HDP's support was very strong in eastern Turkey, in the
region that Kurdish separatists desire as an independent Kurdistan.

Note: HDP = Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party in Turkey, PKK =
Kurdistan Workers' Party anti-government insurgents in Turkey.
Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. PYD = Kurdish militias in
Syria.

The PKK is considered a terrorist group, and has fought an on-and-off
civil war with the government since the 1980s, but has sought peace in
recent years. So the rise of the HDP in Sunday's election will give
the Kurds in Turkey a much larger political voice than they've had in
the past. BBC and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Ariel Sharon, Sami Turgeman,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Justice and Development Party, AKP,
Peoples’ Democratic Party's, HDP, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 9-Jun-15 World View -- Iran demands a nuclear agreement 'snapback' provision of its own

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• South Korea fears that MERS virus will break out into general population
• Iran demands a nuclear agreement 'snapback' provision of its own

****
**** South Korea fears that MERS virus will break out into general population
****


Anti-government protesters in Seoul on Sunday wear masks for protection from MERS (AP)

South Korea is implementing panic measures, to keep a rapidly
spreading epidemic of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus
(MERS-CoV) under control.

The are 95 known cases, with seven deaths.

So far, the only new infections have occurred in hospitals, where one
infected person comes to the hospital seeking treatment, and ends up
infecting other people, including patients, nurses and doctors.

It hasn't started spreading in the general public, and authorities
are taking numerous steps to keep that from happening.
2,000 schools have been closed, and hundreds of public events
have been canceled.

More significant are the quarantines. Some 2,500 people have been
ordered to stay home under quarantine for 14 days, and their cell
phones are being monitored to make sure that they do so. The
authorities call the cell phones regularly to make sure that
the patient hasn't left home without his cell phone.

Sometimes entire villages are quarantined. Men in protective clothing
are guarding all roads in and out of Jangduk village, which is 172
miles south of Seoul, preventing any of the 105 residents from
leaving. The only contact the villagers have with outsiders is
twice-daily visits from health officials checking their temperatures.

MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Globally, there
have been almost 1200 cases since then, most in Saudi Arabia, and at
least 444 related deaths. The original hosts for the MERS virus are
thought to be bats, and the bats have transferred the virus to camels,
which can carry the virus without showing symptoms. Studies show that
it's been common in camels for at least 20 years before spreading to
humans. Camel handlers and shepherds are the people most at risk for
MERS in Saudi Arabia.

However, that figure represents only people who were diagnosed.
One study of 10,000 people in Saudi Arabia found that many
more had been exposed to MERS, but had not shown symptoms or
been diagnosed.

MERS spread to Seoul several weeks ago when a Korean working in
Saudi Arabia returned home several weeks ago, and went to a
hospital because he was feeling ill. He infected several nurses
and doctors, who spread it to nurses, doctors and patients.

North Korea is also in danger from MERS, as there are some 50,000
North Korean workers in Saudi Arabia. South Korea was able to respond
quickly to a MERS pandemic, but it could be a real disaster in North
Korea, which is ill-equipped to handle it. World Health Organization and Reuters and Deutsche Welle and Live Science

****
**** Iran demands a nuclear agreement 'snapback' provision of its own
****

In the nuclear negotiations with Iran, the West is insisting
that the agreement contain a "snapback" provision, meaning the
following: If the sanctions are removed, and then Iran violates
the nuclear agreement, then the sanctions will "snap back" and
be reapplied.

Iran has consistently refused to agree to the snapback provision,
but is now changing its position: It will agree to the West's
snapback provision, provided that it also has a snapback
provision of its own.

Iran's snapback provision would permit Iran to resume full
nuclear development if the West breaches its side of the deal.

Many people are skeptical of the whole snapback concept. They argue
that once the agreement is in place and sanctions have been lifted, it
would be politically impossible to reintroduce sanctions, even if Iran
breached the agreement.

On the other hand, Iran's snapback option would seem to have little
meaning. If the West breached its side of the agreement, which would
presumably mean failing to lift the sanctions, then Iran could resume
nuclear development with or without a snapback option. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Seoul, Saudi Arabia, Jangduk,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
Iran, snapback provision

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 10-Jun-15 World View -- Obama planning additional troop deployment to Iraq in new escalation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burundi's Hutu government in violent crackdown on Tutsi protesters
• Obama planning additional troop deployment to Iraq in new escalation
• US-supported rebels capture key Assad regime army base in Syria

****
**** Burundi's Hutu government in violent crackdown on Tutsi protesters
****


Student camp outside the American embassy in Bujumbura (Reuters)

Hundreds of students are camping outside the American embassy in
Bujumbura, the capital city of Burundi, fearing violence by police and
security forces. Elsewhere, the violent crackdown has created 100,000
refugees, many of whom have fled into Rwanda and Uganda.

Burundi is following a familiar pattern of a kind experienced by many
countries in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end
of a bloody, genocidal civil war. The 1994 war between Hutus and
Tutsis in Rwanda and Burundi, resulting it around a million deaths,
left the survivors traumatized, vowing they'd never let it happen
again.

But now, a generation later, young people have no personal memory
of the 1994 slaughter, and all the old hatreds that gave rise
to the war are being inflamed again. This is raising
fears that the civil war will be revived in all its fury, something
that can't happen in a generational Awakening era because the
survivors won't permit it.

But just the fear of a renewed civil war is driving policies
that are detrimental to Burundi. Burundi's Hutu president Pierre
Nkurunziza took office in 2005, and has served for two terms, which is
the maximum allowed under the country's constitution, written during
the post-war Recovery era with the intention of preventing another
civil war. Nkurunziza was appointed by the parliament in 2005, and
was re-elected in 2010, and now wants to run for a third term in the
2015 election. He claims that since he was appointed as president
in 2005, his first term doesn't count, and he can run for another
term. He claims that his presidency will bring stability to
Burundi. His Tutsi opponents say that his power grab will
destabilize the country, and make a new civil war more likely.

Nkurunziza is following the violent crackdown on protesters that we've
seen in other Awakening era countries, such as Iran, Syria and
Thailand. Peaceful anti-government protesters are considered to be
enemies of the state, destabilizing the country. President
Nkurunziza, claiming that he knows best how to keep the country safe,
massacres the peaceful protesters, just like Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, just like Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei, and just like Thailand's Thai-Chinese élite army junta.

Nkurunziza has postponed the election from June to July 15, and still
insists that he will run for a third term, something that his
opponents say will risk a new civil war. International Business Times and Reuters and All Africa

****
**** Obama planning additional troop deployment to Iraq in new escalation
****

Reports from unnamed officials say that the Obama administration has
adopted a major shift in strategy in Iraq. The Obama administration
is planning to establish a new military base in Anbar Province and
send hundreds of additional American military trainers to help Iraqi
forces retake the city of Ramadi and repel the Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

A day after President Barack Obama announced that the administration
had no plan for defeating ISIS, anonymous Pentagon officials say that
the Administration is planning a significant troop escalation in Iraq.
According to the reports, 1,000 new troops will be added to the 3,080
troops already there.

Last year in June, President Obama announced that the U.S. would send
300 American advisors to train, advise and support the Iraqi
securities forces fighting ISIS. Since then, this number has been
increased, one step at time, from 300 to 800 to 1500 to 3100, and
now presumably to over 4,000. He said that this was "not mission
creep." He insisted that the "U.S. will not be putting boots on the
ground." The goal is "to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist
group known as ISIL." All of this was in addition to air force strikes
against ISIS.

President Obama, whose foreign policy has been one disaster after
another, appeared to have no coherent policy in Iraq at all after
saying on Monday, "We don't yet have a complete strategy because it
requires commitments on the part of the Iraqis," even though many
months had past. Pentagon sources quickly stated that they had
presented several options and recommendations to Obama months ago, and
they were waiting for him to make up his mind. Analysts are saying
that 1,000 more troops just for training purposes won't make any
difference, so it remains to be seen whether this announcement is just
cosmetic, or whether there's more to it.

For those of us who have been around for a while, sending 1,000 more
troops to Iraq looks very much like the kind of escalation and
"mission creep" that got us into other wars with no planning.
Washington Post and NY Times and CNN

****
**** US-supported rebels capture key Assad regime army base in Syria
****

An umbrella group of opposition fighters, known as the "Southern
Front," has captured one of Syria's largest army bases, 56 miles south
of Damascus, after 24 hours of fighting the Syrian army. The Southern
Front is backed by the US and Jordan, and several Arab countries
provide money and weapons. The Southern Front has now cut off Syria's
army from the border crossings to Jordan.

We've reported several times in the last few weeks that the army of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is facing numerous setbacks and may be near total collapse,
and that
Russia may end support for al-Assad.
These new setbacks make a collapse more likely.

In the regions north of Damascus, another rebel alliance led by the
al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), has captured much of
the region from Aleppo to the coastal city of Latakia. This includes
the heartland of al-Assad's Shia/Alawite ethnic group, and places that
entire population in danger. Farther to the east, ISIS has taken
control of large sections of the country, crossing over into Iraq.

There's apparent a "dog that didn't bark" in the picture. We've
described reports that Iran is invoking a 2007 mutual defense
treaty with Syria, and that Iran would deploy tens of thousands
of Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) to defend al-Assad,
especially in the coastal region around Latakia. So far, there's
no sign that these reports have come to past, and now there are
reports that Iran has rejected al-Assad's request for up
to 100,000 IRGC troops. Al Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Bujumbura, Hutus, Tutsis,
Pierre Nkurunziza, Rwanda, Iran, Syria, Thailand, Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Damascus, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Aleppo, Latakia,
Shia, Alawite, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 11-Jun-15 World View -- Pakistan reacts as Indian forces cross border and strike militants in Myanmar

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Indian forces cross Myanmar border to strike at militants
• Cross-border raid implications for India with Pakistan and China
• Reports of breakthrough in Greece's debt crisis

****
**** Indian forces cross Myanmar border to strike at militants
****


Indian army forces

For the first time, Indian special forces crossed the border into
Myanmar (Burma) and conducted a cross-border operation to strike at
the terrorist group National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang
(NSCN-K). The Khaplang terrorists are based in Myanmar, but have
conducted numerous terrorist attacks in northeast India. The
retaliation was triggered by an ambush last week on Thursday (4-Jun)
on Indian soil that killed 18 soldiers. The terrorists escaped police
and security forces by running back across the border into Myanmar.

Early Tuesday morning, a team of 70 elite Indian special forces
commandos crossed the border into Myanmar and struck at the Khaplang.
The commandos were air-dropped from helicopters deep inside Myanmar
around 3 am, equipped with assault rifles, rocket launchers, grenades
and night vision goggles. They walked 5 km to two Khaplang camps and
destroyed them, killing 38 militants.

NSCN-K was formed on April 30, 1988, under the leadership of S S
Khaplang, as a secessionist movement of the Naga people in India and
Myanmar to form a separate nation, the People's Republic of Nagaland.
Mumbai Mirror and Indian Express and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** Cross-border raid implications for India with Pakistan and China
****

Indian officials are brimming with nationalistic pride today after the
cross-border attack in Myanmar (Burma) that killed 38 militants who
had ambushed Indian soldiers several days earlier. According to one
official:

<QUOTE>"This message is now very clear to all those who
harbored intentions of terror on our country. Unprecedented
though, but our Prime Minister has taken a very bold step and
given a go ahead for hot pursuit into Myanmar."<END QUOTE>

Another official said:

<QUOTE>"The military's action against insurgents with
assistance from the Myanmarese government speaks volumes about
India's resolve to fight terror. This is a lesson and a message to
all the terror groups that India will not hesitate in going beyond
its geographical borders to eliminate terrorists."<END QUOTE>

There is some doubt about the truthfulness of this statement, as it's
not clear that the Myanmar government was aware of the strike until
after it happened. In fact, the initial response from the Myanmar
government on the military strike was to say that it took place
entirely on Indian soil.

In fact, there have been some reports that Myanmar and officials from
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) have been supporting the
NSCN-Khaplang terrorist attacks into India.

Editorial opinion in India seems highly positive. One editorial says
that "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated that he is willing
to bite the bullet and take tough action when it comes to the killing
of Indian soldiers."

But the raid has raised some very sensitive hackles in China and
Pakistan.

In 2008, there was a horrific 3-day terror attack on Mumbai by
Lashkar-e-Taibi (LeT), a Pakistani terrorist group that was formed in
the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to
fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. After the
attack, India threatened to send its army to cross the border and
attack LeT on Pakistani soil, which might have led to a major war.
This was prevented by hard intervention by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice. Furthermore, as we reported in April,
Pakistan has refused to prosecute the
mastermind of the Mumbai attack, and he walks free today, infuriating
the Indians.

Since then, there have been other terrorist attacks by Pakistan-based
terror groups in India. The nationalistic gloating by Indian
officials seems to suggest that India would no longer hesitate to
cross the border into Pakistan in pursuit of a Pakistani terrorist.

But according to Pakistan's interior minister:

<QUOTE>"Pakistan is not like Myanmar. ... Those having ill
designs against Pakistan should listen carefully that our security
forces are capable of matching response to any adventurism.
... Indian leaders should stop day dreaming."<END QUOTE>

He accused India of conducting terrorist attacks on Pakistan, and said
that India's "nefarious designs" will not succeed in future as in the
past. Dawn (Pakistan) and Times of India

****
**** Reports of breakthrough in Greece's debt crisis
****

There were reports through the day on Wednesday that Germany will be
satisfied with just one of the reforms that Greece has previously
committed to.

The Europeans are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address
various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector,
curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and
adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

According to the reports, only one of these reforms would be required,
and the others would be postponed to the future. If true, this
compromise would, in effect, "kick the can down the road" once more.

However, there was a late night meeting in Brussels between Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras,
and the only word following the meeting was that negotiations still
had a long way to go.

Greece must make a debt repayment of 1.6 billion euros to the IMF on
June 30. It's thought that Greece has no chance of making that
payment unless a new bailout program for Greece is approved in the
next week. Bloomberg and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Myanmar, SS Khaplang, Nagaland,
National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang, NSCN-K,
Pakistan, China, People's Liberation Army, PLA, Narendra Modi,
Mumbai, Lashkar-e-Taibi, LeT,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Germany, Angela Merkel

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 11-Jun-15 World View -- Pakistan reacts as Indian forces cross border and strike militants in Myanmar

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Indian forces cross Myanmar border to strike at militants
• Cross-border raid implications for India with Pakistan and China
• Reports of breakthrough in Greece's debt crisis

****
**** Indian forces cross Myanmar border to strike at militants
****


Indian army forces

For the first time, Indian special forces crossed the border into
Myanmar (Burma) and conducted a cross-border operation to strike at
the terrorist group National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang
(NSCN-K). The Khaplang terrorists are based in Myanmar, but have
conducted numerous terrorist attacks in northeast India. The
retaliation was triggered by an ambush last week on Thursday (4-Jun)
on Indian soil that killed 18 soldiers. The terrorists escaped police
and security forces by running back across the border into Myanmar.

Early Tuesday morning, a team of 70 elite Indian special forces
commandos crossed the border into Myanmar and struck at the Khaplang.
The commandos were air-dropped from helicopters deep inside Myanmar
around 3 am, equipped with assault rifles, rocket launchers, grenades
and night vision goggles. They walked 5 km to two Khaplang camps and
destroyed them, killing 38 militants.

NSCN-K was formed on April 30, 1988, under the leadership of S S
Khaplang, as a secessionist movement of the Naga people in India and
Myanmar to form a separate nation, the People's Republic of Nagaland.
Mumbai Mirror and Indian Express and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** Cross-border raid implications for India with Pakistan and China
****

Indian officials are brimming with nationalistic pride today after the
cross-border attack in Myanmar (Burma) that killed 38 militants who
had ambushed Indian soldiers several days earlier. According to one
official:

<QUOTE>"This message is now very clear to all those who
harbored intentions of terror on our country. Unprecedented
though, but our Prime Minister has taken a very bold step and
given a go ahead for hot pursuit into Myanmar."<END QUOTE>

Another official said:

<QUOTE>"The military's action against insurgents with
assistance from the Myanmarese government speaks volumes about
India's resolve to fight terror. This is a lesson and a message to
all the terror groups that India will not hesitate in going beyond
its geographical borders to eliminate terrorists."<END QUOTE>

There is some doubt about the truthfulness of this statement, as it's
not clear that the Myanmar government was aware of the strike until
after it happened. In fact, the initial response from the Myanmar
government on the military strike was to say that it took place
entirely on Indian soil.

In fact, there have been some reports that Myanmar and officials from
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) have been supporting the
NSCN-Khaplang terrorist attacks into India.

Editorial opinion in India seems highly positive. One editorial says
that "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated that he is willing
to bite the bullet and take tough action when it comes to the killing
of Indian soldiers."

But the raid has raised some very sensitive hackles in China and
Pakistan.

In 2008, there was a horrific 3-day terror attack on Mumbai by
Lashkar-e-Taibi (LeT), a Pakistani terrorist group that was formed in
the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to
fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. After the
attack, India threatened to send its army to cross the border and
attack LeT on Pakistani soil, which might have led to a major war.
This was prevented by hard intervention by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice. Furthermore, as we reported in April,
Pakistan has refused to prosecute the
mastermind of the Mumbai attack, and he walks free today, infuriating
the Indians.

Since then, there have been other terrorist attacks by Pakistan-based
terror groups in India. The nationalistic gloating by Indian
officials seems to suggest that India would no longer hesitate to
cross the border into Pakistan in pursuit of a Pakistani terrorist.

But according to Pakistan's interior minister:

<QUOTE>"Pakistan is not like Myanmar. ... Those having ill
designs against Pakistan should listen carefully that our security
forces are capable of matching response to any adventurism.
... Indian leaders should stop day dreaming."<END QUOTE>

He accused India of conducting terrorist attacks on Pakistan, and said
that India's "nefarious designs" will not succeed in future as in the
past. Dawn (Pakistan) and Times of India

****
**** Reports of breakthrough in Greece's debt crisis
****

There were reports through the day on Wednesday that Germany will be
satisfied with just one of the reforms that Greece has previously
committed to.

The Europeans are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address
various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector,
curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and
adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

According to the reports, only one of these reforms would be required,
and the others would be postponed to the future. If true, this
compromise would, in effect, "kick the can down the road" once more.

However, there was a late night meeting in Brussels between Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras,
and the only word following the meeting was that negotiations still
had a long way to go.

Greece must make a debt repayment of 1.6 billion euros to the IMF on
June 30. It's thought that Greece has no chance of making that
payment unless a new bailout program for Greece is approved in the
next week. Bloomberg and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Myanmar, SS Khaplang, Nagaland,
National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang, NSCN-K,
Pakistan, China, People's Liberation Army, PLA, Narendra Modi,
Mumbai, Lashkar-e-Taibi, LeT,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Germany, Angela Merkel

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

India is following its "Look East" strategy. And that's a good thing. Not if but when the PLA surges down Trans Asia Highway Route 3 (and then subsequently, Route 2), through Asia's "Fulda Gap" (The Mekong Gap), we'll be damn glad for India looking East. They will have our flank.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> India is following its "Look East" strategy. And that's a good
> thing. Not if but when the PLA surges down Trans Asia Highway
> Route 3 (and then subsequently, Route 2), through Asia's "Fulda
> Gap" (The Mekong Gap), we'll be damn glad for India looking
> East. They will have our flank.

Missiles for America, the hordes for India.

*** 12-Jun-15 World View -- IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zimbabwe offers 5 US dollars for 175 quadrillion Zim dollars
• IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece
• The Greek Tragedy must move to the happy ending

****
**** Zimbabwe offers 5 US dollars for 175 quadrillion Zim dollars
****


Boy carrying Zim dollars

Zimbabwe citizens still having bank accounts denominated in Zim
dollars will have them replaced with accounts in US dollars. Each
depositor will receive $5 for any account up to 175 quadrillion
dollars. The Zim dollar, which has been completely destroyed the
country's genocidal president Robert Mugabe, is finally being buried
forever.

It would be hard to choose a country leader anywhere in the world
who's more vile than Syria's Bashar al-Assad, but Zimbabwe's 91 year
old Robert Mugabe certainly qualifies. Mugabe's actions to transform
Zimbabwe, the breadbasket of southern Africa, into a starving
disease-ridden country are almost beyond belief. (See "Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country"
from
2008.)

As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of Africa,
exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003,
Zimbabwe was so starved that it had to receive 500,000 metric tons in
food aid from the U.N.'s World Food Program.

What happened during those three years was a Marxist socialist "land
reform" program by Robert Mugabe that confiscated 4,500 white-owned
commercial farms and redistributed the property to loyal supporters of
his Zanu-PF party -- i.e., members of his own Shona ethnic group.
Anyone from the Ndebele tribe, the Shona's centuries old enemy, who
objected was killed, tortured or jailed.

Many of the new owners were inexperienced in running large farms, and
food production fell dramatically, as only a few hundred of the
confiscated farms continued to function normally. Harvests of food
staples plummeted by as much as 90%, livestock herds dwindled and
production of the main cash crop, tobacco, slumped badly.

The results were dramatic, and show how it's possible for one
dictatorial leader to destroy a country single-handedly. A formerly
well-fed country had rampant 80% poverty, and the inflation rate went
from 700% to 1000% to 10000% to 150000% and continued rising 500
billion percent. In 2009, Zimbabwe switched to a dual-currency
economy, accepting the US dollar as valid currency. At that point,
the Zimbabwe dollar collapsed completely, and millions of citizens had
their saving destroyed.

In addition to having completely destroyed Zimbabwe's economy, Mugabe
is best known for his 1984 pacification campaign known as "Operation
Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring
rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's
5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of people,
mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were tortured and slaughtered.
All Africa
and Zero Hedge

****
**** IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece
****

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) walked out of talks in Brussels
with Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras because the two positions
were not getting any closer. According to an IMF spokesman:

<QUOTE>"There are major differences between us in most key
areas. There has been no progress in narrowing these differences
recently and thus we are well away from an agreement.

We remain engaged. The IMF doesn’t leave the table."<END QUOTE>

European Central Bank (ECB) officials left Brussels as well.

The lenders are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address
various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector,
curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and
adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies. On Wednesday
there were reports that Europe was willing to consider "kicking
the can down the road again" by requiring only one reform now, and
leaving the others for next year, but nothing has come of that.

European Council President Donald Tusk said: "We need decisions, not
negotiations now. There is no more space for gambling; there is no
more time for gambling. The day is coming, I am afraid, that someone
says the game is over. ... The Greek government has to be, I think, a
little bit more realistic."

A Greek official appeared upbeat: "The Greek delegation, as agreed, is
ready to intensify deliberations in order to conclude a deal soon,
even in the coming days."

Tsipras would like the IMF to completely write off the debt
that Greece owes. The IMF can't do that, because they've loaned
a lot of money to a lot of other countries, and if Greece's debt
were written off, then others would demand the same treatment.

Tsipras can't agree to pension reduction or the other reforms because
his government would probably collapse. On Thursday, Greece's
Communist party took over the finance ministry, saying Tsipras is the
third Prime Minister to sell Greece down the river.

The "final deadline" for a deal is June 18, the date of the next
Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers. However, there have
been so many "final deadlines" till now, we can't be sure.

It's thought that the "final final deadline" is June 30, when Greece
must make a 1.6 billion euro payment to the IMF.

The logic of the Game of Chicken

is that neither car veers off until the very last second. So if
there's going to be a deal, it will probably occur just a couple of
minutes before midnight on June 30. Kathimerini and Reuters

****
**** The Greek Tragedy must move to the happy ending
****

Commenting on Greece's debt crisis, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner
Pierre Moscovici said:

<QUOTE>"I really like Greek tragedy but now we must move to
the happy ending."<END QUOTE>

Apparently Moscovici knows little about ancient Greek theatre. If he
did, then he would know that a comedy has a happy ending, and a Greek
tragedy always has a tragic ending. Business Insider


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Shona,
Ndebele, Operation Gukurahundi, North Korea,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Donal Tusk, Communist Party,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, European Commission, EC,
European Central Bank, ECB, Game of Chicken, Pierre Moscovici

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 13-Jun-15 World View -- Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia
• Pakistan shuts down 'Save the Children' and threatens other NGOs
• France's Dominique Strauss-Kahn acquitted of 'aggravated pimping'

****
**** Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia
****


The notorious Nauru detention center for migrants

Indonesian people smugglers who had been on a boat traveling to
Australia with 65 people from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar say
that Australian authorities prevented them landing on Australian
shores, and paid them AUS$5,000 to take the migrants to Indonesia.

This has led to accusations directed at prime minister Tony Abbott
that Australia is regularly paying people smugglers to take migrants
to other countries. When asked a question about this on a radio show
on Friday, he evaded the questioned and alluded to Australia's tough
anti-migrant policies:

<QUOTE>"What we do is we stop the boats by hook or by crook
because that's what we've got to do and that's what we've
successfully done and I just don't want to go into the details of
how it's done because like a lot of things that law enforcement
agencies have to do, it's necessary, it's difficult and at times I
suppose it's dangerous work, but we do it and we've stopped the
boats. ...

What the government has done is stop the boats. We have stopped
the boats. And we've used a whole range of measures. We will do
whatever we reasonably can, consistent with the principles of a
decent and humane society, to insure that the boats stay stopped,
and I am never, never going to apologize."<END QUOTE>

Indonesian officials are criticizing Abbott's evasion as unethical.
Some Australian officials are pointing out that if the charges are
true that the government is paying people smugglers, then it will
encourage more people smuggling.

The number of migrants reaching Australia has been sharply reduced in
recent years because of tough policies that prevent migrants from
settling in Australia. Thousands have been sent to a notorious
rat-infested detention center on the island of Nauru in Micronesia.
In other cases, Australian naval vessels have pulled the migrant boats
out into the sea, or transferred the migrants to Cambodia, under terms
of a deal made between the two countries. Australian and Jakarta Post and Guardian (London)

****
**** Pakistan shuts down 'Save the Children' and threatens other NGOs
****

Pakistan's government has shut down the aid organization Save the
Children, locked and seized their office building in Islamabad, and
gave them 15 days to leave the country.

According to Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Pakistan
clamping down on non-government organizations (NGOs) that provide
aid:

<QUOTE>"We will not allow anyone to work under the table. We
will not allow any NGO to work in this country against Pakistan’s
interests, culture and values."<END QUOTE>

He also accused some local NGOs, without naming any, of "taking
foreign funding to work on a foreign agenda." He indicated that they
were guilty of espionage.

Pakistan's campaign against NGOs is believed to have been triggered by
the American administration bragging in 2011 that a vaccination
program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama
bin Laden. Save the Children says they had nothing to do with that,
but since 2011, every foreign aid program has come under suspicion.

According to the US State Dept., "We are concerned about Pakistan's
crackdown on international charitable organizations and other
NGOs. ... [Several NGOs] have reported difficulty doing business in
Pakistan. This has had a significant negative impact on international
partner efforts to support Government of Pakistan priorities."
Dawn (Pakistan) and
State Dept. and Daily Express (London)

****
**** France's Dominique Strauss-Kahn acquitted of 'aggravated pimping'
****

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) used to be the head of International
Monetary Fund (IMF), a position now held by Christine Lagarde, and he
once hoped to run for president of France in the Socialist Party, a
role taken over by the current Socialist president François Hollande.
But all that came to an end in 2011, when a hotel maid Nafissatou
Diallo, accused him of having raped her in a NY city hotel. ( "2-Jul-11 News -- France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case"
)

The rape case collapsed because Diallo was evidently a liar, but she
made out pretty well anyway, reportedly collecting $1.4 million in a
civil case, and now running her own restaurant in New York.

However, that case opened Pandora's box for DSK, who was next accused
by a Paris prosecutor of "aggravated pimping," meaning that he
procured prostitutes for parties in Party, Brussels and Washington.

During the trial, DSK said he attended all these parties but
said, hilariously, that he didn't know that the girls were
prostitutes. Here are some famous DSK quotes from the trial:

<QUOTE>When asked by the judge about the presence of
prostitutes at the sex orgies, the ex-IMF chief declared: "I am
horrified at the practice of using prostitutes."

When quizzed later he said: “Prostitution is an assault on women’s
dignity.”

The court also heard DSK comparing prostitutes at orgies to flying
fish. "They do exist," he said. "But you don't often see
them."<END QUOTE>

That trial finally concluded on Friday, with the judge agreeing that
there was not enough evidence to convict him.

While we're on the subject of rape, it's become a major international
issue recently that the Obama administration has been claiming that
25% of all college girls get raped. These figures are parroted
by mainstream media like the NY Times and NBC News, whose reporters
are too dumb to even bother to check them out. And I've even
heard them repeated on the BBC and Al-Jazeera.

These figures on their face are totally ridiculous. No father who
actually believed them would send his daughter to a college if
he thought there was a 25% chance she would be raped.

Also, imagine the NBC News and NY Times newsrooms, filled with
reporters and producers who went to college. If you believe the
moronic figures, then those newsrooms must be filled with rapists and
rape victims. The same would be true of the White House. If they
really believe the figures, then they would have an obligation at
least to find out who all the rapists are in their organizations, and
get rid of them.

I spent ten years writing a book on gender issues for men, called
Fraternizing with the Enemy - A book on gender issues for men and
for women who care about men. I researched the whole range of
gender issues - divorce, domestic violence, rape, teen motherhood,
sexual harassment, child abuse, incest, with an appendix on quotes
from feminists that's well worth reading.

In my book, I quoted Katie Roiphe from her 1993 book about her college
experience:

<QUOTE>"According to the widely quoted Ms. survey, one in
four college women is the victim of rape or attempted rape. One in
four, I remember standing outside the dining hall in college
looking at a purple poster with this statistic written in bold
letters. It didn't seem right. If sexual assault was really so
pervasive, it seemed strange that the intricate gossip networks
hadn't picked up more than one or two shadowy instances of
rape. If I was really standing in the middle of an epidemic, a
crisis, if 25 percent of my female friends were really being
raped, wouldn't I know it?"<END QUOTE>

In other words, if rape were common in college, she would know a lot
of rape victims among her female friends, but she doesn't know any.
Once again, if the White House really believes the figures, then they
ought to do something about all the rapists working in the White
House.

If you actually do the research, as I did, checking many, many
sources, then there's no question about the statistics: Only about
0.1% (one-tenth of one percent) of college girls get raped. Even if
you make the dubious assumption that as many as 3 out of 4 rapes don't
get reported, the total figure is still only 0.75%. It's nowhere near
25%. But 0.1% is politically inconvenient for the Obama
administration, so they manufacture the number they want, knowing that
today's mainstream media reporters are too stupid to check it out.
The Local (France) and France 24 and Daily Mail (London) and Book: Fraternizing with the Enemy (PDF)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Indonesia, Tony Abbott,
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nauru, Micronesia,
Pakistan, Save the Children, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan,
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, DSK, Christine Lagarde, François Hollande,
Nafissatou Diallo, Katie Roiphe

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 14-Jun-15 World View -- Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Druze community split on Syria war after al-Nusra attack
• History of the Druze religion
• Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war

****
**** Druze community split on Syria war after al-Nusra attack
****


Druze clerics in a meeting in Beirut on Friday (AP)

The Druze community, with about one million living in Syria and
Lebanon, and 104,000 living in Israel, have stayed out of the Syria
war, although they are split in supporting or opposing Syria's
genocidal president Bashar al-Assad.

However, on Wednesday, militants from the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) attacked a Druze community in the village of
Qalb Lawzah, in Idlib province in Syria, and killed at least 20 Druze
men and women. This has evoked strong nationalism among the Druze in
Lebanon.

One Lebanese Druze leader who supports al-Assad, Wiam Wahhab, made a
televised speech, saying,

<QUOTE>"We will not accept to sell Druze blood!

[The Druze in Syria] are ready to defeat the terrorists, but what
they lack is arms. Lebanon’s Druze are ready to help, we are ready
to form an army of 200,000 fighters to defend the
Druze!"<END QUOTE>

However, the principal Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, who
opposes al-Assad, said on Twitter:

<QUOTE>"Any inciting rhetoric will not be beneficial, and you
should remember that Bashar Assad’s policies pushed Syria into
this chaos."<END QUOTE>

An al-Nusra leader on Saturday apologized for the murder of the 20
Druze civilians, but it's unclear whether the Druze public will accept
the apology in view of the 20 murders. Daily Star (Beirut) and Times of Israel

****
**** History of the Druze religion
****

The Druze came into existence as a secret society, and only announced
itself to the world in the early 1000s (11th century). There was a
brief period of proselytizing that ended in 1050. Since then it has
been impossible to convert to Druze from any other religion.

The Druze creed arose from a branch of Shia Islam, but it incorporates
concepts from Christianity and Judaism, as well from Greek philosophy
and Hindu and Buddhist influences.

Like any other society, they have had their generational crisis wars,
during some of which they were victims of genocide, and in others they
were perpetrators of genocide, making them no different from anyone
else. A particularly bloody generational crisis war occurred in 1860
with the Maronite Christians, which is considered a victory by the
Druze, resulting in the deaths of 10,000 Christians. It's only been
in recent years that the two groups have attempted to reconcile.
Jewish Virtual Library

****
**** Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war
****

Israel has been very careful to avoid getting involved in the Syria
war, but a recent attack jihadist attack on the Druze ethnic community
in Syria may force Israel's hand. The Druze in Syria fear that
they'll be left on their own to fight al-Nusra and the Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), especially with the Syrian army possibly near total collapse.
The Druze
consider this to be an existential threat to the entire Druze
community.

Thousands of Druze protested in Israel on Saturday, calling on Israel
to aid the Druze in Syria. Typical chants were "Stop the massacres,"
and "We want the Druze among us." According to one Druze Israeli
official, "We do not plan to sit idly by while our brothers are being
slaughtered in Syria."

From Israel's point of view, the danger is that if jihadist groups
start attacking the Druze in Syria, then hundreds of thousands of
Druze civilians will pour across the border into Israel, creating a
major humanitarian crisis, and forcing Israel to enter the war.

Activists are asking Israel to send arms to the Syrian Druze. If
Israel withholds support, it could be held responsible for whatever
happens to the Syrian Druze community, including a mass slaughter by
jihadists.

On the other hand, Israel may make the choice of sending arms to the
Syrian Druze, allowing them to defend themselves. This would mean
abandoning the consistent policy of abstaining from direct involvement
in that war. It would moreover entail setting up new machinery for
establishing, training and arming a Druze army of 20,000 to 30,000
fighting men.

There are also reports that Iran is offering to arm the Druze,
something that would give them a great deal of control over the Druze
community in Syria and Lebanon.

This is becoming a major political issue in Israel, and there are no
easy choices. YNet (Israel) and Debka (Israel) and Fox News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Druze, Lebanon, Syria, Israel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Bashar al-Assad,
Wiam Wahhab, Walid Jumblatt, Maronite Christians, Iran

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 15-Jun-15 World View -- Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa
• History of Darfur genocide
• Rwanda versus Darfur versus Central African Republic civil wars
• Everyone prepares for the worst, as Greece bailout talks collapse again

****
**** Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa
****


One of the many huge refugee camps that house millions of displaced Darfurians

This year's African Union leaders summit took place on Sunday in
Johannesburg, South Africa, with the nice politically correct theme "A
Year of Women Empowerment and Development towards Africa's Agenda
2063."

However, all the wonderful speeches about empowering women were
overshadowed by demands that South Africa arrest one of the attending
heads of state, Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the
International Criminal Court (ICC) over alleged war crimes and crimes
against humanity committed during the Darfur conflict in western
Sudan.

The ICC arrest warrant was issued in 2009, but al-Bashir has never
been arrested because Sudan is not a signatory to the ICC charter.
Furthermore, al-Bashir has been going to great lengths over the
years to make sure that he never travels to a country that IS
a signatory to the ICC, since that country would be obligated under
international law to arrest him and turn him over to the ICC.

So it's a very big surprise to a lot of people that al-Bashir
decided to travel to the African Union on Saturday, since
it's in South Africa, which IS a signatory to the ICC. Somehow,
some way, al-Bashir must have received a guarantee from South
African president Jacob Zuma that he wouldn't be arrested.

However, the plan has been at least temporarily thwarted because
an activist group got a South African court to detain al-Bashir
and prevent him from leaving the country until the court can
decide whether South Africa is obliged to honor the ICC warrant.

There are sharp differences of opinion:

• Many African Union officials say that no ICC warrant
  should be honored, since the ICC is prejudiced, and only indicts
  Africans.
• Some people consider the genocidal al-Bashir to be a hero
  who should not be turned over to the ICC.
• Others, whose families have been victimized by the rape,
  torture and slaughter of the Sudan government forces, would
  like al-Bashir to be arrested and sent to hell.

The court should read a decision on Monday or Tuesday. CNN and Mail & Guardian (South Africa) and Independent (South Africa)

****
**** History of Darfur genocide
****

The Darfur genocide has been in the news for over ten years. Seven or
eight years ago, it was sometimes called "everybody's favorite African
war" since George Clooney and other movie stars, and politicians like
Susan Rice, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden have all made "Stop the
genocide" and "Save Darfur" and "Enough is enough" part of a very
stylish and progressive do-good campaign. During the 2007 Iraq surge,
Joe Biden even wanted to withdraw all the forces from Iraq, and pour
them into the Darfur war. The Darfur war was VERY chic and trendy,
unlike the Iraq war.

Low level violence began in the 1970s between two ethnic groups, one
of farmers (the "Africans") and the other of camel herders (the
"Arabs"), in the usual disputes over land and water. The violence
increased from year to year, and in the 1990s, Sudan's government in
Khartoum delegated the responsibility of policing the region to the
Arab Janjaweed militia, formed from certain groups of herders.

Violence continued to increase, and by 2003, it had turned into a
full-scale generational crisis war. (A detailed history can be found
in my 2007 article, "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming"
) At that point, the
Janjaweed militias (herders) became extremely violent, with a program
of massacres, mass murders, rapes, genocide and scorched earth.

As the slaughters and rapes continued, the glamorous politicians and
movie stars paid visits and expressed outrage. However, the fun
finally wore off, and in 2009 the International Criminal Court (ICC)
issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir.
According to the warrant:

<QUOTE>"[T]here are reasonable grounds to believe that,
insofar as it was a core component of the GoS [Government of
Sudan] counter-insurgency campaign, there was a GoS policy to
unlawfully attack that part of the civilian population of Darfur —
belonging largely to the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa groups —
perceived by the GoS as ... opposing the GoS in the ongoing armed
conflict in Darfur. ...

[T]here are also reasonable grounds to believe that, as part of
the GoS's unlawful attack on the above-mentioned part of the
civilian population of Darfur and with knowledge of such attack,
GoS forces subjected, throughout the Darfur region, (i) hundreds
of thousands of civilians, belonging primarily to the Fur, Masalit
and Zaghawa groups, to acts of forcible transfer; (ii) thousands
of civilian women, belonging primarily to these groups, to acts of
rape; and (iii) civilians, belonging primarily to the same groups,
to acts of torture."<END QUOTE>

The United Nations has mounted a massive peacekeeping force, to try to
end the Darfur war, but in fact it's nowhere near over. In fact, a UN
report in January indicates that the war considerably worsened in
2014, with more than 3,000 villages targeted by forces aligned with
the Government of Sudan, destroying the villages and forcing 400,000
people to flee for their lives. ICC arrest warrant (PDF) and AP and DabangaSudan

****
**** Rwanda versus Darfur versus Central African Republic civil wars
****

The Darfur civil war and the Central African Republic (CAR) civil
war are ongoing wars today, while the 1994 Rwanda civil war
ended long ago. Let's compare the three.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, every generational
crisis war must end in what I call an "explosive climax," a genocidal
event that's so horrible that the survivors on both the winning
and losing sides vow to never let it happen again. In the
Rwanda civil war, the explosive climax was the slaughter of
some 800,000 Tutsis by the Hutus. Since then, Rwanda has gone
through a Recovery Era in an attempt to prevent any recurrence,
and it's been possible without any UN peacekeeping forces.

But in Darfur and CAR, there are ambitious United Nations / African
Union peacekeeping forces. The UN is spending huge amounts of money
trying to create peace -- get the same results as in Rwanda, but
without the explosive climax. That's impossible. It's the
explosive climax, the horrific event that ends the war, that
brings about the desired peace.

There are millions of Darfurians in refugee camps, under the
protection of the UN peacekeeping forces. The UN forces are
preventing the explosive climax, but they can't do so forever. Those
millions of people are sitting ducks. At some point, the peacekeeping
forces will withdraw, and the Arab militias will go through those
refugee camps like a hot knife through butter, raping, torturing and
slaughtering anyone they can. That will be the explosive climax, and
after that, peace can come to Darfur once again.

****
**** Everyone prepares for the worst, as Greece bailout talks collapse again
****

With a big 1.5 billion euro debt payment due on June 30, EU-Greece
weekend talks to negotiate a new deal have, once again, collapsed.
Increasingly, markets are expecting that Greece will default, and be
forced to leave the euro currency. The Europeans and the Greeks are
all thought to have prepared some plan in case the worst happens, and
that seems increasingly likely. Dow Jones


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, African Union, South Africa, Sudan,
Omar al-Bashir, International Criminal Court, ICC, Jacob Zuma,
George Clooney, Susan Rice, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden,
Darfur, Janjaweed Militias, Rwanda, Central African Republic,
eurozone, Greece

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 16-Jun-15 World View -- France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU's new migrant quota system appears to be near collapse
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses
• South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free

****
**** EU's new migrant quota system appears to be near collapse
****


Migrants in Italy's border with France demanding that France let them in (EPA)

In late May, the EU government in Brussels enacted a quota system that
would distribute some 60,000 migrants to different countries, based on
a calculation that looked at each country's size, GDP and unemployment
rate. France has a quota of 7,000. Germany has a quota of 8,700.
Sweden has a quota of 1,300.

However, Britain and Ireland opted out, and Denmark and Poland said
they also would do so. Then France became reluctant, and Italy was
furious that it may be left to deal with the tsunami of migrants by
itself. So now, just three weeks later, the whole quota system
appears to be collapsing.

So Italy is threatening to retaliate by issuing so-called Schengen
visas to migrants. The Schengen treaty is a core principle on which
the European Union was founded, in that it permits free travel across
borders throughout most of the EU. In fact, the EU is staging special
events this week to celebrate 30 years of borderless travel in the
Schengen area.

If this threat is carried out, and Italy issues thousands of Schengen
visas to migrants, then the visas will cease to be honored, and
another core part of the European Union will be over.

EU officials will meet on Tuesday in Luxembourg to try to resolve the
problem. Guardian (London) and ITV (London)

****
**** France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses
****

For several days, about 200 migrants from Africa have been trying to
cross the border between France and Italy, but French police have been
blocking their entrance.

That was just the latest incident in a continuing issue. In the
preceding week, 1,439 illegal immigrants had been arrested by law
enforcement authorities in France, and over 1,000 were forced to
return to Italy.

French officials say that they're following the letter of the law,
which says that migrants must be processed by the country in which the
first land. According to France's interior minister Bernard
Cazeneuve:

<QUOTE>"The Dublin rules must be respected. When migrants
arrive in France that have been through Italy and registered
there, European law applies and that means they must be returned
to Italy."<END QUOTE>

Italian officials are becoming increasingly furious that they're being
forced to deal with the migrant problem almost alone. Even under the
proposed quota system, only 24,000 immigrants from Italy would be
distributed to other countries, a small fraction of the the 100,000 to
200,000 immigrants expected in 2015.

Italy's prime minister Mario Renzi said on Sunday that the severity of
the crisis "should not be underestimated," adding, "Redistributing
just 24,000 people is almost a provocation."

According to Renzi, if Italy does not receive help and solidarity from
other EU members in welcoming immigrants, then Italy will institute a
"Plan B that would be a wound inflicted on Europe." He didn't say
what Plan B would entail. Vice News and Independent (London) and Reuters

****
**** South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free
****

As we reported yesterday,

international law required South Africa to arrest Sudan's president
Omar al-Bashir and turn him over to the International Criminal Court
(ICC), which has charged him with war crimes for the rape, torture and
slaughter of hundreds of thousands of civilians by the Sudan
government forces in the Darfur genocide.

South Africa is a signatory to the ICC charter, and so was obligated
to arrest al-Bashir while he was on South African soil attending an
African Union summit. The case was even being contested in a South
African court. But while this court was in session, al-Bashir was
permitted to board his private jet and return to Sudan.

This incident throws the future of the ICC into doubt. The ICC
depends on member countries to meet their commitments. The South
African government violated the rulings of its own courts, as well as
its contract with the ICC. CNN and Al Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, France, Schengen region, European Union,
Bernard Cazeneuve, Mario Renzi,
South Africa, Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, Darfur,
International Criminal Court, ICC, African Union

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 16-Jun-15 World View -- France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU's new migrant quota system appears to be near collapse
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses
• South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free

****
**** EU's new migrant quota system appears to be near collapse
****


Migrants in Italy's border with France demanding that France let them in (EPA)

In late May, the EU government in Brussels enacted a quota system that
would distribute some 60,000 migrants to different countries, based on
a calculation that looked at each country's size, GDP and unemployment
rate. France has a quota of 7,000. Germany has a quota of 8,700.
Sweden has a quota of 1,300.

However, Britain and Ireland opted out, and Denmark and Poland said
they also would do so. Then France became reluctant, and Italy was
furious that it may be left to deal with the tsunami of migrants by
itself. So now, just three weeks later, the whole quota system
appears to be collapsing.

So Italy is threatening to retaliate by issuing so-called Schengen
visas to migrants. The Schengen treaty is a core principle on which
the European Union was founded, in that it permits free travel across
borders throughout most of the EU. In fact, the EU is staging special
events this week to celebrate 30 years of borderless travel in the
Schengen area.

If this threat is carried out, and Italy issues thousands of Schengen
visas to migrants, then the visas will cease to be honored, and
another core part of the European Union will be over.

EU officials will meet on Tuesday in Luxembourg to try to resolve the
problem. Guardian (London) and ITV (London)

****
**** France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses
****

For several days, about 200 migrants from Africa have been trying to
cross the border between France and Italy, but French police have been
blocking their entrance.

That was just the latest incident in a continuing issue. In the
preceding week, 1,439 illegal immigrants had been arrested by law
enforcement authorities in France, and over 1,000 were forced to
return to Italy.

French officials say that they're following the letter of the law,
which says that migrants must be processed by the country in which the
first land. According to France's interior minister Bernard
Cazeneuve:

<QUOTE>"The Dublin rules must be respected. When migrants
arrive in France that have been through Italy and registered
there, European law applies and that means they must be returned
to Italy."<END QUOTE>

Italian officials are becoming increasingly furious that they're being
forced to deal with the migrant problem almost alone. Even under the
proposed quota system, only 24,000 immigrants from Italy would be
distributed to other countries, a small fraction of the the 100,000 to
200,000 immigrants expected in 2015.

Italy's prime minister Mario Renzi said on Sunday that the severity of
the crisis "should not be underestimated," adding, "Redistributing
just 24,000 people is almost a provocation."

According to Renzi, if Italy does not receive help and solidarity from
other EU members in welcoming immigrants, then Italy will institute a
"Plan B that would be a wound inflicted on Europe." He didn't say
what Plan B would entail. Vice News and Independent (London) and Reuters

****
**** South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free
****

As we reported yesterday,

international law required South Africa to arrest Sudan's president
Omar al-Bashir and turn him over to the International Criminal Court
(ICC), which has charged him with war crimes for the rape, torture and
slaughter of hundreds of thousands of civilians by the Sudan
government forces in the Darfur genocide.

South Africa is a signatory to the ICC charter, and so was obligated
to arrest al-Bashir while he was on South African soil attending an
African Union summit. The case was even being contested in a South
African court. But while this court was in session, al-Bashir was
permitted to board his private jet and return to Sudan.

This incident throws the future of the ICC into doubt. The ICC
depends on member countries to meet their commitments. The South
African government violated the rulings of its own courts, as well as
its contract with the ICC. CNN and Al Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, France, Schengen region, European Union,
Bernard Cazeneuve, Mario Renzi,
South Africa, Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, Darfur,
International Criminal Court, ICC, African Union

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

If the Shengen program dies out, Italy could always take a page from Mexico's late 20th Century playbook, and encourage their new underclass to immigrate illegally to places to their north. And heck, why even mess with France? Go for the gold! Switzerland ... Austria ... Germany ...... Denmark! ..... SWEDEN!!!!

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> If the Schengen program dies out, Italy could always take a page
> from Mexico's late 20th Century playbook, and encourage their new
> underclass to immigrate illegally to places to their north. And
> heck, why even mess with France? Go for the gold! Switzerland
> ... Austria ... Germany ...... Denmark! ..... SWEDEN!!!!

I believe that's exactly what Italy plans to do, and may already be
doing. Between this crisis and the Greece crisis, the EU project
certainly seems to be at risk.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I believe that's exactly what Italy plans to do, and may already be doing. Between this crisis and the Greece crisis, the EU project certainly seems to be at risk.

The EU deserves to be at risk. All ideas that have been around for a while either grow or calcify. The EU has been in the calcification mode for a while. It's time to admit it.

Only the young seem to understand the concept of Transeurope. Everyone older is still very much tied to his or her nation state. In the US, only Southerners have similar attitudes.

*** 17-Jun-15 World View -- China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China says it's finished building artificial islands in South China Sea
• China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses
• Greece's bitter PM Tsipras hurls ultimatums and insults at IMF

****
**** China says it's finished building artificial islands in South China Sea
****


Numerous Chinese dredging vessels around an artificial island in May 2 photo taken by P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft

For the past year, China has been creating new, artificial islands in
the South China Sea in regions which have historically belonged to
other countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. China has
been using aggressive military tactics to deprive Vietnamese and
Philippine fishermen of their historical fishing grounds, and made
demands that the U.S. end its surveillance activities in international
waters in the South China Sea. Tensions escalated substantially last
month when China repeatedly demanded that an American P-8A Poseidon
surveillance plane leave the area. ( "26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable"
)

China now says that it's completed its artificial islands project.
However, that doesn't mean that China is becoming less aggressive
militarily; to the contrary, it means that China is moving on to
the next phase, building military structures on the artificial
islands.

According to Chinese media:

<QUOTE>"The islands and reefs after completion will not serve
as China's military outposts in the Nansha Islands. Apart from
satisfying the need of necessary military defense, they will be
mainly for civilian use."<END QUOTE>

These two sentences contradict each other. The first sentence says
"no military outposts," but the second sentence mentions "satisfying
the need of military defense," which means that the islands will be
used as military outposts. This is no surprise to anyone, as China
prepares for war with its neighbors and with the United States.
VOA and Global Times (Beijing)

****
**** China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses
****

China has confirmed the fourth test, on June 7, of the new Wu-14
hypersonic glide strike missile designed to defeat American missile
defenses.

During a war, the hypersonic missile is carried up by an ordinary
ballistic missile, but is then released while still in the atmosphere.
It can then glide almost horizontally to its target at almost 8,000
miles per hour. It can easily change direction in flight, to evade
missile defense. The systems provide enhanced precision, speed,
range, maneuverability and multiple-targeting, and are capable of
carrying a nuclear warhead. In actual practice, several will be
launched at once, making a missile defense almost impossible.

According to Chinese analysts, the missile test was timed to send a
threatening message to the American military to stop doing
surveillance in the South China Sea. Washington Free Beacon

****
**** Greece's bitter PM Tsipras hurls ultimatums and insults at IMF
****

The relationship between Greece and its creditors has been getting
more and more bitterly acrimonious with every day that passes by, as
the "drop dead" date of June 30 approaches. On Tuesday, in a speech
to Parliament, Greece's far left prime minister Alexis Tsipras accused
the International Monetary Fund of "criminal responsibility":

<QUOTE>"The time has come for the IMF’s proposals to be
judged not just by us but especially by Europe.

The IMF has criminal responsibility for today’s situation. ...

Right now, what dominates is the IMF’s harsh views on tough
measures, and Europe’s on denying any discussion over debt
viability.

The fixation on cuts... is most likely part of a political
plan... to humiliate an entire people that has suffered in the
past five years through no fault of its own.

The time has come for the IMF’s proposals to be judged in public
... by Europe,” he told the MPs of his radical left Syriza
party."<END QUOTE>

The IMF has insisted on further cuts to Greece's pension system, and a
rise in value-added taxes.

Jean-Claude Jüncker, the president of the European commission, shot
back by essentially accusing Tsipras of lying to the Greek people: "I
don’t care about the Greek government, I do care about the Greek
people. The debate in Greece and outside Greece would be easier if
the Greek government would tell exactly what the Commission ... is
really proposing." He indicated that Tsipras was lying about the
value-added tax.

A spokesman for Greece's opposition New Democracy party, the party
that governed Greece prior to Tsipras's victory in January, accused
Tsipras of intentionally forcing Greece to leave the euro currency:

<QUOTE>"The negotiations are not starting now; instead the
mocking of the Greek people is reaching its peak. Mr Tsipras is
pushing the country toward a dead end, the bill is becoming
astronomical. Is it possible this was their secret
agenda?"<END QUOTE>

Guardian (London) and Kathimerini and Bloomberg and Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Vietnam, Philippines,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Jean-Claude Jüncker

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 18-Jun-15 World View -- Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe
• Chad bans the burka after two suicide bombings
• Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the Palestinian unity government
• Hamas and Israel discuss a 5-year ceasefire

****
**** Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe
****


Putin news conference on Tuesday (Reuters)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said that Russia would
add more than 40 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to its
nuclear arsenal this year. As a reason, he expressed concern about
anti-missile defenses that Nato is deploying in eastern Europe.

In fact, the US and Poland have been discussing the deployment of
American heavy weapons in eastern Europe. Those discussions are a
reaction to Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimean
peninsula and Russia's invasion of east Ukraine.

Nato has condemned Putin's nuclear announcement as "saber-rattling."
According to Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg:

<QUOTE>"[Putin was] confirming the pattern and behavior of
Russia over a period of time - we have seen Russia is investing
more in defense in general and in its nuclear capability in
particular."<END QUOTE>

However, according to an analysis by KGS, Europe is the least
of Putin's worries, and that the nuclear announcement was
really directed at China:

<QUOTE>"China is Russia's existential threat. Russian
doctrine makes clear that tactical nuclear weapons would be used
to defeat a Chinese attack. The willingness to use nuclear
weapons to stop a conventional attack is the key insight from
Putin's statement.

NATO and the US announced that they will position heavy equipment
for armored cavalry or armored infantry units in the Baltic
members of NATO. The stated purpose is to deter and defeat
Russian aggression against NATO members. The US can move soldiers
much faster than heavy equipment. In this solution, the major
delay is the time it takes civil airliners to fly from the US to
Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn.

With reasonable and old fashioned intelligence warning, NATO could
bring armored units with prepositioned equipment in the Baltics to
full combat readiness faster than the Russians can field a combat
attack force. NATO planners need to understand that in every race
to mobilize, NATO beats Russia, provided US equipment is
prepositioned.

That leads to the second part of the discussion. If the US and
NATO are clever enough to find a way to stop Russian conventional
forces, Russia has few military options other than nuclear
escalation, tactical or strategic. That makes Russia's strategic
position much like that of Pakistan.

After three general wars and two crises that approached general
war, it is now clear that Pakistan cannot defeat India in a
general conventional war. US intelligence analysts need to
understand this as settled lore from decades of US intelligence
experience: Pakistan cannot win a conventional war against India.

In the near-war crises of 2001-2002, India achieved full combat
readiness in less than three weeks, while the Pakistan Army, under
President General [Pervez] Musharraf, failed to achieve full
combat readiness. Pakistan's failure to generate its conventional
military power meant that its leaders thought they had no
alternative to activating Pakistan's strategic nuclear missile
forces to stop an Indian conventional attack..

That is the significance of Putin's message. Russia cannot defend
the national territory without using nuclear weapons. Pakistan and
North Korea are in precisely the same position. That position does
not imply that a conventional confrontation must go nuclear. It
means that such a confrontation could go nuclear.

Russia's nuclear threats are serious because of the weaknesses of
Russia's conventional forces. A key question is how will NATO
respond."<END QUOTE>

CS Monitor and Reuters and KGS Nightwatch (Subscription)

****
**** Chad bans the burka after two suicide bombings
****

Two suicide bombings targeting the presidential palace and police
headquarters in Chad's capital city N’Djamena on Tuesday left 27
people dead and over 100 wounded. Although no one has claimed
responsibility, few people doubt that the perpetrators were Boko
Haram.

In reaction, there's been a major security clampdown in N'Djamena.
Central areas have been sealed off, checkpoints have been set up
across the city, and vehicles with smoked glass windows have been
banned from the roads.

The most controversial security change has been the banning the burka
and the full-face veil, because they're being used as "camouflage,"
making it possible to hide explosives within clothing. Boko Haram
militants have increasingly been using female suicide bombers in
Nigeria, as they are more likely to smuggle bombs into public places
without detection.

The ban will apply everywhere, not just public places. Not only will
the ban be enforce, but security forces will go into markets and burn
all full-face veils sold in markets. AFP and Vanguard (Nigeria) and BBC

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the Palestinian unity government
****

On April 23 of last year, the two major Palestinian factions signed a
"Palestinian unity agreement," as a prerequisite to forming a State of
Palestine. The agreement provided for a series of steps to unify the
two factions into a common government. But now, after over a year of
bitter disagreements, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has
announced that he's going to dissolve the unity government. According
to a spokesman, "The government will resign in the next 24 hours
because this one is weak and there is no chance that Hamas will allow
it to work in Gaza."

It's not clear whether Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, really means
it, or whether it's a negotiating position. During the past
few years, Abbas has said on several occasions that he personally
would resign as president, but changed his mind later.

In fact, Hamas has already said that it would not accept
the dissolution:

<QUOTE>"Hamas rejects any one-sided change in the government
without the agreement of all parties.

No one told us anything about any decision to change and no one
consulted with us about any change in the unity government. Fatah
[Abbas] acted on its own in all regards."<END QUOTE>

If the unity government is really dissolved, then it would put the
entire State of Palestine issue into question, since you can't have a
State of Palestine unless you have a government. Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and AFP and
Khaleej Times (Dubai)

****
**** Hamas and Israel discuss a 5-year ceasefire
****

The threatened dissolution of the unity government comes at a
time when there are reports that Hamas and Israel are negotiating
a five-year ceasefire that would partially end the blockade
of Gaza by opening a seaport.

Hamas is under pressure from a number of directions. Hamas
was defeated in last summer's Gaza war, and got nothing out of
it. Furthermore, Hamas is now one of the "older generations"
in Gaza, and is finding it difficult to control the young
militant Salafist groups. So Hamas officials may have decided
that negotiating with Israel may be their best bet. However,
few people believe that anything firm will come out of
the negotiations.

There has been one immediate change. Because of the negotiations,
Egypt has eased the restrictions on the Rafah crossing, and is
permitting people to travel freely between Gaza and Egypt. Jerusalem Post

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Nato, Jens Stoltenberg,
China, India, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, North Korea,
Chad, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Hamas, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, State of Palestine, Israel, Egypt

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 18-Jun-15 World View -- Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe
• Chad bans the burka after two suicide bombings
• Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the Palestinian unity government
• Hamas and Israel discuss a 5-year ceasefire

****
**** Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe
****


Putin news conference on Tuesday (Reuters)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said that Russia would
add more than 40 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to its
nuclear arsenal this year. As a reason, he expressed concern about
anti-missile defenses that Nato is deploying in eastern Europe.

In fact, the US and Poland have been discussing the deployment of
American heavy weapons in eastern Europe. Those discussions are a
reaction to Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimean
peninsula and Russia's invasion of east Ukraine.

Nato has condemned Putin's nuclear announcement as "saber-rattling."
According to Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg:

<QUOTE>"[Putin was] confirming the pattern and behavior of
Russia over a period of time - we have seen Russia is investing
more in defense in general and in its nuclear capability in
particular."<END QUOTE>

However, according to an analysis by KGS, Europe is the least
of Putin's worries, and that the nuclear announcement was
really directed at China:

<QUOTE>"China is Russia's existential threat. Russian
doctrine makes clear that tactical nuclear weapons would be used
to defeat a Chinese attack. The willingness to use nuclear
weapons to stop a conventional attack is the key insight from
Putin's statement.

NATO and the US announced that they will position heavy equipment
for armored cavalry or armored infantry units in the Baltic
members of NATO. The stated purpose is to deter and defeat
Russian aggression against NATO members. The US can move soldiers
much faster than heavy equipment. In this solution, the major
delay is the time it takes civil airliners to fly from the US to
Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn.

With reasonable and old fashioned intelligence warning, NATO could
bring armored units with prepositioned equipment in the Baltics to
full combat readiness faster than the Russians can field a combat
attack force. NATO planners need to understand that in every race
to mobilize, NATO beats Russia, provided US equipment is
prepositioned.

That leads to the second part of the discussion. If the US and
NATO are clever enough to find a way to stop Russian conventional
forces, Russia has few military options other than nuclear
escalation, tactical or strategic. That makes Russia's strategic
position much like that of Pakistan.

After three general wars and two crises that approached general
war, it is now clear that Pakistan cannot defeat India in a
general conventional war. US intelligence analysts need to
understand this as settled lore from decades of US intelligence
experience: Pakistan cannot win a conventional war against India.

In the near-war crises of 2001-2002, India achieved full combat
readiness in less than three weeks, while the Pakistan Army, under
President General [Pervez] Musharraf, failed to achieve full
combat readiness. Pakistan's failure to generate its conventional
military power meant that its leaders thought they had no
alternative to activating Pakistan's strategic nuclear missile
forces to stop an Indian conventional attack..

That is the significance of Putin's message. Russia cannot defend
the national territory without using nuclear weapons. Pakistan and
North Korea are in precisely the same position. That position does
not imply that a conventional confrontation must go nuclear. It
means that such a confrontation could go nuclear.

Russia's nuclear threats are serious because of the weaknesses of
Russia's conventional forces. A key question is how will NATO
respond."<END QUOTE>

CS Monitor and Reuters and KGS Nightwatch (Subscription)

****
**** Chad bans the burka after two suicide bombings
****

Two suicide bombings targeting the presidential palace and police
headquarters in Chad's capital city N’Djamena on Tuesday left 27
people dead and over 100 wounded. Although no one has claimed
responsibility, few people doubt that the perpetrators were Boko
Haram.

In reaction, there's been a major security clampdown in N'Djamena.
Central areas have been sealed off, checkpoints have been set up
across the city, and vehicles with smoked glass windows have been
banned from the roads.

The most controversial security change has been the banning the burka
and the full-face veil, because they're being used as "camouflage,"
making it possible to hide explosives within clothing. Boko Haram
militants have increasingly been using female suicide bombers in
Nigeria, as they are more likely to smuggle bombs into public places
without detection.

The ban will apply everywhere, not just public places. Not only will
the ban be enforce, but security forces will go into markets and burn
all full-face veils sold in markets. AFP and Vanguard (Nigeria) and BBC

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the Palestinian unity government
****

On April 23 of last year, the two major Palestinian factions signed a
"Palestinian unity agreement," as a prerequisite to forming a State of
Palestine. The agreement provided for a series of steps to unify the
two factions into a common government. But now, after over a year of
bitter disagreements, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has
announced that he's going to dissolve the unity government. According
to a spokesman, "The government will resign in the next 24 hours
because this one is weak and there is no chance that Hamas will allow
it to work in Gaza."

It's not clear whether Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, really means
it, or whether it's a negotiating position. During the past
few years, Abbas has said on several occasions that he personally
would resign as president, but changed his mind later.

In fact, Hamas has already said that it would not accept
the dissolution:

<QUOTE>"Hamas rejects any one-sided change in the government
without the agreement of all parties.

No one told us anything about any decision to change and no one
consulted with us about any change in the unity government. Fatah
[Abbas] acted on its own in all regards."<END QUOTE>

If the unity government is really dissolved, then it would put the
entire State of Palestine issue into question, since you can't have a
State of Palestine unless you have a government. Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and AFP and
Khaleej Times (Dubai)

****
**** Hamas and Israel discuss a 5-year ceasefire
****

The threatened dissolution of the unity government comes at a
time when there are reports that Hamas and Israel are negotiating
a five-year ceasefire that would partially end the blockade
of Gaza by opening a seaport.

Hamas is under pressure from a number of directions. Hamas
was defeated in last summer's Gaza war, and got nothing out of
it. Furthermore, Hamas is now one of the "older generations"
in Gaza, and is finding it difficult to control the young
militant Salafist groups. So Hamas officials may have decided
that negotiating with Israel may be their best bet. However,
few people believe that anything firm will come out of
the negotiations.

There has been one immediate change. Because of the negotiations,
Egypt has eased the restrictions on the Rafah crossing, and is
permitting people to travel freely between Gaza and Egypt. Jerusalem Post

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Nato, Jens Stoltenberg,
China, India, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, North Korea,
Chad, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Hamas, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, State of Palestine, Israel, Egypt

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

You continue and others to fall for the faux "Ruso/Soviet Chinese Split."

That has always been a ruse (and a good one, which involved "throwing away" real troops in live fire, 46 years ago). By making the West believe there is some sort of split, the West has fallen asleep, and will be utterly dumbfounded when struck by the single clenched fist of the SCO. More tactically, "The Split" led to Nixon's supposed diplomacy, which led to us selling ourselves out to the PRC - is there any US / Western IP left that has not been stolen by the PRC? All of this is classic Sun Tzu - to paraphrase, depict yourself as weak, when you are actually building strength, in order to take the enemy by complete surprise. That is exactly what the East Bloc / SCO has been doing for years and years. Even after the East Bloc / SCO / single clenched fist came out of the closet on July 16, 2001, the West still did not wake up, and still has not awakened. I suppose we will awaken to thermonuclear explosions and our infrastructure crippled by a massive cyberattack.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> You continue and others to fall for the faux "Ruso/Soviet Chinese
> Split."

> That has always been a ruse (and a good one, which involved
> "throwing away" real troops in live fire, 46 years ago). By making
> the West believe there is some sort of split, the West has fallen
> asleep, and will be utterly dumbfounded when struck by the single
> clenched fist of the SCO. More tactically, "The Split" led to
> Nixon's supposed diplomacy, which led to us selling ourselves out
> to the PRC - is there any US / Western IP left that has not
> been stolen by the PRC? All of this is classic Sun Tzu - to
> paraphrase, depict yourself as weak, when you are actually
> building strength, in order to take the enemy by complete
> surprise. That is exactly what the East Bloc / SCO has been doing
> for years and years. Even after the East Bloc / SCO / single
> clenched fist came out of the closet on July 16, 2001, the West
> still did not wake up, and still has not awakened. I suppose we
> will awaken to thermonuclear explosions and our infrastructure
> crippled by a massive cyberattack.

If you're going to make a statement like that, then at least you have
to deal with China's existential threat to Russia's Far East.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=82969

*** 19-Jun-15 World View -- Emergency Eurogroup summit called for Monday to deal with likely Greece default

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fistfight breaks out at Yemen peace talks in Geneva
• Report: Iran's Supreme Leader has fired Qassam Soleimani in Syria
• Emergency Eurogroup summit called for Monday to deal with likely Greece default

****
**** Fistfight breaks out at Yemen peace talks in Geneva
****


Hamza al-Houthi throws back a shoe thrown at him on Thursday (AFP)

It looks like the United Nations sponsored Yemen peace talks in Geneva
are not going to end the war in Yemen after all.

A news conference given by Hamza al-Houthi, the head of the Houthi
delegation, was interrupted when an anti-Houthi protestor, a woman in
a pink headscarf, threw a shoe at al-Houthi, calling him a "criminal."
He caught the shoe and threw it back. There followed a fistfight
between the Houthi supporters and protesters, before the latter were
escorted out.

Meanwhile, the fighting is continuing in Yemen. There are daily air
strikes by the Saudi coalition, mostly at Houthi targets in the
capital city Sanaa. Iran-backed Houthis are battling Saudi-backed
Sunni tribesmen in several places. Each side gives a daily press
briefing explaining why they're the good guys and the others are the
bad guys. Internet trolls on both sides abound. France24 and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Report: Iran's Supreme Leader has fired Qassam Soleimani in Syria
****

According to a report in Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to
me by a subscriber), Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei has relieved Gen. Qassem Soleimani in charge of his Syria
command. I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains
valuable insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's
point of view, and sometimes gets things wrong.

Soleimani is the commander of Iran's Al Qods Brigades and supreme
commander of Iran forces in the Middle East. According to the report:

<QUOTE>"This was taken as a major affront by the elite arm of
the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The ayatollah's marching order left Soleimani in charge of Iran's
military and intelligence operations in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon
for the time being, but excluded Syria, where military setbacks
were piling up too critically to overlook. The Al Qods chief's
promise of "major developments," on June 2 -- after he had rushed
over to Damascus to deal with the crisis of Palmyra's fall to the
Islamic State -- turned out to be empty rhetoric. His bravado in
stating "In the next few days the world will be pleasantly
surprised from what we (the IRGC) working with Syrian military
commanders are preparing," was not been followed up. The suggested
dispatch of thousands of Iranian troops to the Assad regime's
rescue never materialized. ...

Since then, the plight of the Syrian regime has gone from bad to
worse, with the Islamic State and Syrian rebels taking turns
cutting off chunks of territory; Hezbollah stalled in its effort
to dislodge rebel forces from the Qalamoun Mountains and, worse
still, helpless to stem the war's spillover into Lebanon.

The Iranian command governing the two campaigns has ground to a
halt pending Tehran's appointment of a new boss to replace
Soleimani."<END QUOTE>

In fact, Soleimani didn't really do very well in Iraq,
either. Originally, Soleimani and his Shia militias were going to
recapture Tikrit from ISIS. He was going to do it within a few days,
without the help of US airstrikes. Instead, Soleimani and his Shia
militias had to retreat, and Soleimani fled to Tehran. Afterwards,
the Iraqi army captured Tikrit with the help of US airstrikes. ( "24-Mar-15 World View -- Iraq's battle for Tikrit reaches a standstill, humiliating Iran"
) Debka (subscription)

****
**** Emergency Eurogroup summit called for Monday to deal with likely Greece default
****

Thursday was supposed to be the "drop dead" date for reaching a deal
so that Greece could make its 1.6 billion euro debt payment to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) by June 30. According to analysts,
Thursday's meeting of the Eurogroup finance ministers was the last
chance to make a deal and still have time get the deal approved by the
German parliament in time to release bailout funds to Greece by June
30.

However, Thursday's meeting ended with no deal. Greece has been asked
to reduce pension costs by increasing retirement dates over the next
ten years, and to increase its value-added tax. Greece's prime
minister Alexis Tsipras has refused to do any of this. The
discussions have become extremely acrimonious, and many European
officials have expressed the feeling, one way or another, that they're
sick of Greece, and don't care what happens.

According to one analyst I heard, Thursday wasn't really a final "drop
dead" date. If a deal can be signed by June 30, then the European
Central Bank (ECB) could offer Greece a bridge loan, enabling it make
its payment to the IMF, until the deal is approved by Germany's
parliament, according to this analyst.

This scenario would fit the logic of the "Game of Chicken" that's
being played. The logic of the Game of Chicken, where two cars race
towards each other at top speed to see who veers first to avoid a
collision, is that neither car veers until the last nanosecond, if at
all. So we won't actually know until the midnight deadline on June 30
whether Greece will default.

Another analyst pointed out that a default does not mean that Greece
has to leave the eurozone. Greece could default within the eurozone
and permit harsh capital controls on Greek banks, imposing great
hardship on the Greek people for years to come. However, this may not
be a politically possible solution, as the Greek people may prefer to
return to the drachma currency instead. Either way, the result would
be a huge nightmare. Kathimerini (Athens) and Telegraph (London) and Gulf News (Dubai)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Geneva, Houthis, Saudi Arabia,
Hamza al-Houthi, Iran, Al Qods Brigades, Qassam Soleimani,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Iraq, Syria, Tikrit,
Eurogroup, Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
European Central Bank, ECB, Game of Chicken

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Fistfight breaks out at Yemen peace talks in Geneva
****


Hamza al-Houthi throws back a shoe thrown at him on Thursday (AFP)

It looks like the United Nations sponsored Yemen peace talks in Geneva
are not going to end the war in Yemen after all.

There's nothing much to say. The tossing of shoes is an ultimate insult in the muslim world.

The discussions have become extremely acrimonious, and many European
officials have expressed the feeling, one way or another, that they're
sick of Greece, and don't care what happens.

This is silly. The fact of the matter is that Greece can't pay the debt. There's only one option left and that's Grexit. The Greek people have to accept that Greece cannot remain in the EU and Greek creditors have realize they have to take a haircut. It's done. Stick a fork in it.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

... This is silly. The fact of the matter is that Greece can't pay the debt. There's only one option left and that's Grexit. The Greek people have to accept that Greece cannot remain in the EU and Greek creditors have realize they have to take a haircut. It's done. Stick a fork in it.

When asked about crises, especially economic ones, MIT professor Rudi Dornbusch noted that they always take a lot longer to happen than we expect, but then they happen all at once. I think Greece is more than ready to move to step 2.

*** 20-Jun-15 World View -- The Gathering Storm: The accelerating surge in refugees, slaves and terrorists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Gathering Storm
• The sudden accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons
• Human slavery at the highest level in human history
• State Dept: Dramatic rise in terrorism from 2013 to 2014

****
**** The Gathering Storm
****


Accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons (UNHCR)

When Winston Churchill wrote his monumental six-volume history
of World War II, he titled the first volume The Gathering
Storm, he described the signs that a world war was approaching.
He particularly focused on the Nazis in Germany, and their
massive increase in military power, particularly in air power,
which Churchill foresaw would put Britain at existential risk.

I've written many articles about China's massive growth in
military power, particularly in ballistic and hypersonic missiles,
whose only purpose is to destroy American cities,
military bases, and aircraft carriers. China is preparing to
launch a war against the United States today, just as Hitler
was preparing to attack Britain, and that's part of the Gathering
Storm today.

But there's another aspect to the gathering storm -- the sudden
accelerating world growth in refugees, slaves and terrorists. This is
a major trend that's destabilizing the world, and brings us closer to
the beginning of the Clash of Civilizations world war.

****
**** The sudden accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons
****

As the above graph shows, the number of people forced to flee their
homes was fairly steady throughout the 2000s, but since 2010, and
especially since the Arab Awakening in the Mideast, the number has
rapidly accelerated, growing exponentially. From 2000-2010, the
number was around 40 million. But then the number started rapidly
accelerating, reaching 60 million in 2014.

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's been watching the news
for the last year, as there's one refugee crisis after another,
whether in Europe, in southeast Asia or the southern border of the
United States.

The sources of these refugees and displaced persons are mainly the
wars in Syria, Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan.

A small percentage are Christian, such as those from Central America
or Central African Republic, but most are Muslim, whether it's Muslims
killing Muslims in the Mideast or Africa, or Buddhists killing Muslims
in Myanmar (Burma).

I've mentioned this several times in the past, because it's quite
remarkable. Most people focus on Muslim militias or jihadists killing
people, but I believe that the most important fact is that Muslims are
seemingly under attack around the world, usually by other Muslims.
And this has led to millions more Muslim refugees around the world as
well.

According to the UNHCR report, at least 15 conflicts have erupted or
reignited in the past five years: eight in Africa (Côte d'Ivoire,
Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, northeastern Nigeria,
Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and this year in Burundi);
three in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Yemen); one in Europe
(Ukraine) and three in Asia (Kyrgyzstan, and in several areas of
Myanmar and Pakistan).

According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres:

<QUOTE>"We are witnessing a paradigm change, an unchecked
slide into an era in which the scale of global forced displacement
as well as the response required is now clearly dwarfing anything
seen before.

It is terrifying that on the one hand there is more and more
impunity for those starting conflicts, and on the other there is
seeming utter inability of the international community to work
together to stop wars and build and preserve peace."<END QUOTE>

There's an irony to this. After World War II, the United Nations,
along with the United States as Policeman of the World, was set up to
try to "stop wars and preserve peace."

But today, the "utter inability of the international community" is
caused on the one hand because two of the worst criminal nations --
China for annexing other countries' territories in the South China
Sea, and Russia for invading and annexing parts of Ukraine, and also
supplying weapons for Bashar al-Assad's genocide in Syria -- are on
the UN Security Council, with veto power that prevents the UN from
even attempting to stop conflicts. Working together and supporting
each other, the criminal nations Russia and China have crippled the
United Nations and made it a laughingstock.

As for the United States, Barack Obama is the first president to
repudiate President Harry Truman's 1947 Truman Doctrine, which did
much to preserve peace for decades, with the most damaging example
being the flip-flop about the "red line" of al-Assad's use of chemical
weapons.

In his book, "The Gathering Storm," Churchill tells his response to
Hitler's occupation of Austria in March 1938:

<QUOTE>"Europe is confronted with a programme of aggression,
nicely calculated and timed, unfolding stage by stage, and there
is only one choice open... either to submit, like Austria, or else
to take effective measures while time remains to ward off
danger. ...

If a number of States were assembled around Great Britain and
France in solemn treaty for mutual defense against aggression;
...and if it were done in the year 1938... then I say that you
might even now arrest this approaching war."<END QUOTE>

This is exactly what's happening today in Ukraine, the South China Sea
and the Mideast. There's a Gathering Storm today, just as there was
in 1938, and the result is going to be catastrophic. UNHCR and CS Monitor and National Churchill Museum

****
**** Human slavery at the highest level in human history
****


Countries with the highest numbers of slaves, by percentage of population (Washington Post)

There's been a lot of nonsense written this week following the
Charleston SC terrorist killing, as if the United States invented
slavery. Slavery has existed since the start of the human race, and
it still exists today. It's estimated that there are 30-40 million
slaves in the world today, the highest number in history.

According to Free the Slaves, the African country Mauritania has the
highest percentage of slavery in its population: 4%. India has the
largest number of people in slavery: 14 million.

There's also slavery in the United States: it's estimated that there
are 60,000 slaves in the US today. Would you like to own a slave?
Well, you could travel to Mauritania and buy one there, as some people
have done.

The most common forms of slavery are:

• Labor Slavery. About 78 percent toil in forced labor slavery
  in industries where manual labor is needed—such as farming, ranching,
  logging, mining, fishing, and brick making—and in service industries
  working as dish washers, janitors, gardeners, and maids.
  
• Sex Slavery. About 22 percent are trapped in forced prostitution
  sex slavery.
  
• Child Slavery. About 26 percent of today’s slaves are
  children.

Other terms that describe slavery are: debt bondage, bonded labor,
attached labor, restavec (a child in Haiti sent by her parents to work
for someone else), forced labor, indentured servitude and human
trafficking.

Today, the world has the highest number of refugees in history, and
the highest number of slaves in history. I haven't seen any figures
that relate these, there have been a number of news stories that
describe the connection.

These stories describe how Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
have been enslaving many of the people they capture in Syria and Iraq,
such as the sexual slavery of Yazidi girls and women. Also, refugees
fleeing from countries like Syria or Eritrea or Myanmar often promise
to pay money to human traffickers to take them to other places, such
as Indonesia, Australia or Europe. At some point during the journey,
the traffickers may demand that the refugee call home to ask his
family for money, and if that's not possible, then the refugee is sold
into slavery.

Although slavery is illegal in every country in the world, slave
owners, whether in the US or elsewhere, have very effective techniques
for keeping control of their slaves, usually by telling them that
their families will be killed if they cause trouble. Slaves in
America are often forced to work as prostitutes or as migrant
laborers.

India, with 14 million slaves, suffers from all forms of slavery.
Although the caste system has become illegal, there are still many
children who are born into slavery. Girls from underprivileged
classes are particularly vulnerable to sexual slavery, sometimes under
the guise of "child marriages." Washington Post and Free The Slaves and Walk Free

****
**** State Dept: Dramatic rise in terrorism from 2013 to 2014
****

According to a new report by the State Dept., the number of terrorist
attacks increased 35% from 2013 to 2014, and the number of people
killed by terrorist grew 81%.

More than 60 percent of all attacks took place in five countries:
Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Nigeria. And 78% of all
fatalities due to terrorist attacks also took place in five countries:
Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria.

According to the report, the world's biggest national sponsor of
terrorism is Iran. Iran has continued support for radical Palestinian
groups in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and various groups in Iraq,
including a Shiite militia designated as a terrorist group. According
to the report, "In 2014, Iran continued to provide arms, financing,
training, and the facilitation of primarily Iraqi Shia and Afghan
fighters to support the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown that has
resulted in the deaths of at least 191,000 people in Syria."

The report also singled out Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, with "a
penchant for the use of brutal tactics, which included stonings,
indiscriminate mass casualty attacks, and kidnapping children for
enslavement."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is going
deeper and deeper into a generational Crisis era, and headed for a
Clash of Civilizations world war. And as I've been writing for years,
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries
will be enemies of the West, including the U.S., India, Russia and
Iran.

In this article, we've described three major trends -- the
accelerating growth in the number of refugees, and the historically
high numbers of slaves and terrorist acts -- that are contributing to
the Gathering Storm that will lead to this war. We can't predict when
it will start (or maybe, with the entire Mideast already in flames,
it's started already), but we can be certain that it's coming.
Washington Post and US State Dept.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Winston Churchill, Nazis, China,
Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Burma,
Central African Republic, Eritrea, UNHCR, António Guterres,
Free the Slaves, Walking Free, India, Mauritania,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Nigeria, Boko Haram

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 21-Jun-15 World View -- Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China
• Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue

****
**** Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China
****


Landscapes in Russia's Trans-Baikal territory (Itar-Tass)

Russia is planning to least to a Chinese company for 49 years 115,000
hectares (284,050 acres) of land to grow crops and rear livestock in
eastern Siberia. The lease will be at the rate of 250 rubles (about
$4.63) per hectare, totaling $26 million, plus investments worth
around 3 billion yuans ($448 million).

The land is in in the Trans-Baikal region on the border with China in
Russia's Federal District of Siberia. This announcement has provoked
nationalists in Moscow and Siberia, who may welcome China's
investments, but are unhappy with the influx of ethnic Chinese that
would enter the region.

This caused an uproar in social media, with comments like, "China’s
creeping expansion in Russia has begun" and "the Motherland is being
sold out piece by piece."

This has forced Russian officials to call concerns about Chinese
expansion a "myth." According to one Russian analyst:

<QUOTE>"There are fears of irrational nature about China in
society.

China is perceived in Russian consciousness as something alien and
different compared with western culture. Besides, China is
developing so swiftly that many Russians fear that it may suppress
Russia. ...

[Also,] China possesses some of the world’s most advanced
agricultural technologies and could help Russia in this
respect."<END QUOTE>

However, other analysts are raising concerns about proposed terms of
the deal that Russian officials are rarely mentioning: namely that the
Chinese plan a "large-scale" migration to the leased Russian lands.

According to a Russian analysis, quoting Chinese media:

<QUOTE>"Leasing Russian land to the Chinese , apparently,
goes far beyond a purely agricultural enterprise.

China has its own requirements for the project: ... 'If you can't
legally solve the problem of large-scale involvement of the
Chinese labor force, any long-term cooperation with Chinese
agricultural enterprises [is] out of the question," [according to
China's] 'Huanqiu Shibao newspaper.' In other words, the Chinese
say that the existing border and migration regime with Russia do
not suit them. ...

[Russians] are wary of China's economic expansion in the light of
China's territorial claims on Russia. ... Beijing is well aware
that the issue of delivery of Russian land is not solved in the
administration of the Trans-Baikal Territory. That is why Beijing
calls a long-term transfer of land the "ideological emancipation"
of Russia to China. ...

[The letter of intent for the lease] indicates that the project
will be implemented only with "large-scale" Chinese migration to
Russia. ... So, under these restrictions, Moscow will have to
agree to the abolition of the existing border and migration regime
for the Chinese.<END QUOTE>

Window On Eurasia / Paul Goble and Itar-Tass and Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Trans)

****
**** Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue
****

In my recent article "18-Jun-15 World View -- Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe"
, I quoted an analyst who suggested that
Russia's threat to add more than 40 ICBMs to its nuclear arsenal was
made because of existential threats from China rather than from
Europe.

Several web site readers said that this didn't make sense. One
comment said:

<QUOTE>"I don't see it. Vladivostok is the home of the
Russian Pacific Fleet. Russia has over two dozen nuclear-armed
submarines alone, swimming around. Eastern Russia is armed to the
teeth to ward off and respond to US attack, a legacy of the Cold
War. Russia has been granted port facilities in Vietnam, a long
time ally. In addition, Russia has excellent commercial ties with
China and has just signed a long term oil deal with them. China
and Russia's interests are economically win-win. They each gain
from each other's economic strength: raw material (Russia),
manufacturing (China). They have a symbiotic economic and
political interest in trade with the rest of the world, especially
Europe. China would surely benefit from Russian collapse, but only
if they could then expropriate, occupy, govern and defend a vast
territory - and for what? They already have a sweet deal for the
only thing Russia is useful for: raw materials."<END QUOTE>

It's true that Russia and China have managed to paper over their
differences in the last few years, but Russia and China have had
centuries of extremely bitter and violent relations, at least since
the 13th century Mongol invasion of Russia. As recently as 1969 there
was a border war between China and Russia, with the threat of a much
wider war.

There is something that China values more than raw materials or even
people: land. And that's what at issue in the Trans-Baikal deal in
Russia's Federal District of Siberia described above.

The situation in Russia's Federal District of Far East -- which is
even farther east than Siberia -- is particularly desperate for
Russia. The Far East is an enormous region, but only 7.4 million
Russians populate the region. This means that the region acts as a
kind of "safety valve" for migrants from northeast China, with its
population of 70 million.

According to some estimates, there are 2-5 million Chinese illegal
immigrants living in Russia's Far East, and the number is increasing
by a million or so every year.

For those who might enjoy some Schadenfreude at Russia's expense,
consider the following: Russia justified last year's illegal invasion
and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by saying that Russia
needed to protect all the Russian citizens living there.

So, as Chinese migrants pour into Russia's Far East, it won't be long
before the Chinese can use Russia's argument against Russia: China has
to annex Russia's Far East in order to protect all the Chinese
citizens living there.

At any rate, the purpose of the article on Russia's nuclear
saber-rattling was to make the point that Russia cannot win a
conventional war with China in the Far East, and so would have to
resort to nuclear weapons, just as Pakistan cannot win a conventional
war with India, and would have to resort to nuclear weapons, which
might be why Russia is adding nuclear ICBMs to its inventory.
ABC News (2014) and Jamestown (2014)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Siberia, Trans-Baikal,
China, Far East, Ukraine, Crimea

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail