Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

We've just had six years of a president who has no clue what's going
on in the world, and it's been a disaster. We do not need another 8
years of someone who has no clue what's going on in the world, and
I've seen no evidence that Trump, Rand or Sanders does. To the
contrary, they all talk utter nonsense from their book. It's
different nonsense from Obama's nonsense, but it's just as bad.

By the way, Stalin was a total disaster for Russia. He made a deal
with Hitler that they would split up some European countries between
them, and in return Hitler wouldn't invade Russia. So Stalin almost
went into a catatonic shock when Hitler did invade. Hitler made a
total fool out of Stalin. Stalin had no clue what was going on in the
world.

There is a notion that in fact, Stalin planned all along to take all of Eastern Europe and possibly all of Europe. Stalin helped the Nazis get into power. The Nazis were an "Icebreaker" meant to throw Europe, especially Western Europe, into war. Once weakened from the war, the USSR would conquer Europe. Hitler may have realized he was being set up and stabbed the backstabber before the backstabber could stab him. But the backstabber eventually capitalized on Hitler's mental illness and poor judgment, eventually getting half of what he wanted.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Seriously, Jordan, do you REALLY believe that when Putin or any
Russian leader is FORCED TO CHOOSE between all out war with China
versus all out war with countries like India, Vietnam, Iran and the
United States, then he's going to side with China? Russia and the
Mongols have centuries of hatred behind them, and China is already
invading Russia's Far East. You can say what you want about me, but I
think that the idea you're suggesting is utterly preposterous, despite
anything that General Dunford says.

Many Russians are part Mongol.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

There is a notion that in fact, Stalin planned all along to take all of Eastern Europe and possibly all of Europe. Stalin helped the Nazis get into power. The Nazis were an "Icebreaker" meant to throw Europe, especially Western Europe, into war. Once weakened from the war, the USSR would conquer Europe. Hitler may have realized he was being set up and stabbed the backstabber before the backstabber could stab him. But the backstabber eventually capitalized on Hitler's mental illness and poor judgment, eventually getting half of what he wanted.

-It's not very controversial that Stalin hoped that Hitler and the Western Allies would wear themselves out in a repeat of WWI, and then he could decide who to stab in the back (as he stabbed Poland in the back in 1939). Hitler in Paris in June 1940 was not what Stalin was looking for.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Well, I'm in Manchester presently, and angling to get to Cambridge
> soon. Fortunately for you, and me if things pan out, northern New
> England is a hop, skip and a jump away, and mostly outside major
> fallout patterns. Something to consider.

China is specifically planning to target east coast cities by means of
ballistic missiles crossing the North Pole. They're also developing a
suite of nuclear submarines to launch missiles. If you arrive before
the first Chinese missile, let me know and we can have lunch.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> As for the candidates again, Trump is the best one so far. He is
> the only one saying the right things with regards to how to get us
> out of the hole.

Did he also promise that the earth would heal and the tides would
recede? Did he also promise that austerity would end, once and for
all?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

China is specifically planning to target east coast cities by means of
ballistic missiles crossing the North Pole. They're also developing a
suite of nuclear submarines to launch missiles. If you arrive before
the first Chinese missile, let me know and we can have lunch.

Russia is specifically planning to target east coast cities by means of
ballistic missiles crossing the North Pole (specifically the Topol, the Topol-M and the Yars nuclear missiles). They're have also developed a
suite of nuclear submarines (the borei class) to launch missiles. If you arrive before
the first Russian missile, let me know and we can have lunch.

Fixed it for you.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Did he also promise that the earth would heal and the tides would
recede? Did he also promise that austerity would end, once and for
all?

Yes vote for a boomer neoliberal, vote for the neocon wing of the GOP or neoliberal establishment democrat, vote Washington insider. If you are European vote either tory, labour or social democrat. A 4T without any institutional change whatsoever vote for a great patriotic war so that the neoliberal elite can stay in power and the political and military structure would have zero structural changes. Support Medicare and social security so to ensure transfers of wealth from Millennials and Xers who are barely scraping by to Baby boomers who often have multi-million assets to pay for multi-million pensions. Keep the military doctrine around a policy of global cops and robbers, while removing any heavy weapon assets. Keep a counterforce nuclear contingency retaliation doctrine rather than embracing a countervalue one to keep in line with boomer and older liberal-democracy ideology that says to punish enemy leadership in the case of war rather than the enemy population. Dismantle the nation-state in favor of some globalist utopia, ensure the transition of the US to being a mere province/or electoral unit within some globalist federation, rather than our true destiny: which is to be the second version of the Roman empire (not the pre-punic wars republic). Nobody is buying boomer neoliberal nonsense these days because first said nonsense it what is getting us into the hole, second neoliberal/neoconservative globalism is in direct contradiction to the majority's self-interests and logical self-preservation and any hope of establishing prosperity and/or greatness.

Yes so keep believing that late-GI/Silent/Boomer neoliberal ideology is a cure all. Keep Believing any problems we have both domestically and foreign policy strategically; are occurring not because the neoliberal ideology is utterly faulty and has to go, but because the populace is not adhering the said ideology with sufficient obedience. Keep believing that policy-making is better of with just about everyone born after the late 1950s effectively disenfranchised, with younger leaders only having positions if they are true-believers in whatever awakening era ideology they adhere to. Keep believing that cuts of funding for the homeless and for education is the fiscal solution rather than the obvious answer of cutting Medicare and Social Security.

Nah, it's better to have kids running things, giving speeches,
printing money, and setting up death panels.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Nah, it's better to have kids running things, giving speeches,
printing money, and setting up death panels.

Printing Money is only an issue if you intend to honor your debts and treaties. If one instead uses the printed money rebuild infrastructure and industry to build a war machine for the purposes of establishing captive markets over large swaths of the world. Then there would be no need to look after the debt levels, because the debt problem would be solved by the barrel of the gun. John X apparently also never heard of either import-substitution and export-substitution economics either, nor using non-monetary means to create capital assets (where labor from said captive markets would be extensively utilized).

Right. Better to just borrow money and lie about paying it back, and
then massacre, torture and starve millions of people to achieve your
goals.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Right. Better to just borrow money and lie about paying it back, and
then massacre, torture and starve millions of people to achieve your
goals.

That's how nations have advanced themselves for thousands of years, only in the early to mid 20th century did ideologues convince themselves against all historical evidence that it could be done otherwise.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

That's how nations have advanced themselves for thousands of years, only in the early to mid 20th century did ideologues convince themselves against all historical evidence that it could be done otherwise.

Except perhaps for the Golden Age of Greece.

John X apparently also never heard of either import-substitution and export-substitution economics either, nor using non-monetary means to create capital assets (where labor from earlier mentioned captive markets would be extensively utilized).

Cynic Hero loves Donald Trump for President because he fantasizes that
Donald Trump would slaughter, torture and starve millions of people,
as Stalin did.

A vote for Jeb or Hillary would simply anchor the US into the role of early 20th century Britain and France, a full-scale decline followed by total exhaustion in the crucible of the next hegemonic transition. By 1970 neither Britain or france were great powers any longer; although both liked to complain about it to the US.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

> Cynic Hero loves Donald Trump for President because he fantasizes
> that Donald Trump would slaughter, torture and starve millions of
> people, as Stalin did.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> A vote for Jeb or Hillary would simply anchor the US into the role
> of early 20th century Britain and France, a full-scale decline
> followed by total exhaustion in the crucible of the next hegemonic
> transition. By 1970 neither Britain or france were great powers
> any longer; although both liked to complain about it to the
> US.

So you apparently agree with what I wrote. That's great! Let's leave
it at that.

View -- China cracks down on 'peizi' or 'fund-matching' stock market businesses[/b]

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands die in sectarian herder-farmer clashes in Nigeria
• Emotions running high over Eurogroup ultimatum to Greece
• China cracks down on 'peizi' or 'fund-matching' stock market businesses

****
**** Thousands die in sectarian herder-farmer clashes in Nigeria
****


Herd of African cattle (AFP)

Boko Haram violence in Nigeria has left over 600 dead in the last six
weeks. Since Boko Haram began operating in 2002 they have caused over
13,000 deaths.

And yet, Boko Haram is not the only source of violence in Nigeria.
What has been going on for years is sectarian violence between Muslims
and Christians. Much of the sectarian violence occurs in Jos, in the
Plateau region in central Nigeria.

Jos is in the middle of Nigeria, right on the fault line between
Muslims who live in the north and Christians who live in the south.

The northern part of Nigeria is mostly Muslim, because of centuries
of migration from the Maghreb, the region in northern Africa that was
conquered by Arab Muslims in the centuries following the death of
Mohammed.

The southern part of Nigeria, especially around the Port Harcourt
area, is predominantly Christian, following centuries of colonization
by the Europeans, taking advantage of opportunities for mining and
the slave trade. Over time, many of the southern tribes were
converted to Christianity.

In the middle of Nigeria is the city of Jos, heavily populated by
both Muslims and Christians. There are frequent really horrific
attacks by Muslim gangs against Christians, and by Christian
gangs against Muslims.

Although these are nominally secular attacks, religion is not the core
reason for the attacks. The Christians are almost all farming tribes
that settled long ago. In the last few decades, Muslim nomadic Fulani
cattle herders from the north have been moving south looking for new
pastures and water for their herds.

Battles between farmers and herders occur in country after country, as
I've described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Sudan,
and even America in the 1800s. The farmers accuse the herders of
letting the cattle either their crops, while the herders accuse the
farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers
put up fences, then the herders knock them down.

In one refugee camp in Wende, south of Jos, there are thousands of
people who have lost their homes and become "Internally Displaced
People" (IDPs) because of clashes between herders and farmers.
Strategy Page and All Africa and
All Africa (2-Jul)

****
**** Emotions running high over Eurogroup ultimatum to Greece
****

Many citizens of Greece are accepting the demands that the Eurogroup
is making of Greece in return for bailout money, while others are
furious, feeling that they've been betrayed and sold out by prime
minister Alexis Tsipras, who agreed to demands that were harsher than
the ones that had been rejected just a week earlier in a nationwide
referendum.

There are big disagreements by analysts about the demands that the
Eurogroup has put on Greece before any new bailout money can be
provided. If Greece's parliament passes the first round of laws
Wednesday, then they will receive a bridge loan that will allow the
banks to re-open and keep Greece from defaulting. Most analysts are
expecting parliamentary approval on Wednesday, as Tsipras's far left
Syriza party is being joined by the right of center New Democracy
party in voting to accept the deal. After that, Greece's parliament
will have pass additional laws to receive an additional 86 billion
euros in bailout money. This will kick the can down the road,
but there may be an additional crisis at any time if the
committed reforms are not implemented.

According to far left NY Times political commentator Paul Krugman:

<QUOTE>"The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right.
This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete
destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It
is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even
so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project
was supposed to stand for."<END QUOTE>

The first terms of the deal have to be enacted by Greece's parliament
by Wednesday. Well-known investor Wilbur Ross, whose consortium last
year invested 1.7 billion euros in Greek banks, said that this deal is
the best thing for Greece and Europe, in an interview with CNBC (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"I believe it will go through [in the parliament], and
I think maybe in some ways it's more important that there will be
a change in the political situation in Greece. So I think it will
not only be enacted, I think it will be implemented. ...

I think that Greece needed societal reform, and that's what's
coming as part of this package. They're not calling it that, but
that's really what it is. There was a lot of dysfunctionality in
the way that both the economy and society were structured. Those
are now being addressed. In terms of moral hazard, if there's one
thing that a politician wants, it's to be re-elected, and if I'm
right, there'll be sufficient changes in the political scene -
that will be a deterrent from other countries from playing games
with the EU. So I totally disagree with the notion that there's
anything here that will encourage bad behavior on the part of the
other euro countries. ...

As for the amount of the debt itself, what Greece really needs is
to get to a primary budget surplus, because right now they're
going cash negative every month, without reference to any interest
or principal. A lot of these reforms will cure
that."<END QUOTE>

The last sentence refers to the fact that even if the entire debt were
written off, and Greece was debt free, then Greece would immediately
go back into debt, and would have to borrow more money.

Those who favor the deal point to privatizations of the seaports and
airports as favoring growth in Greece, since they would remove a huge
source of fiscal losses, and turn them into profit-making entities
that would benefit the entire country and Europe. Reuters

****
**** China cracks down on 'peizi' or 'fund-matching' stock market businesses
****

China's stock market bubble that caused stock prices to rise by a
factor of 250% before the bubble began to burst on June 12 is being
blamed on "peizi" or "fund-matching" businesses that allow individual
citizens to lend money to stock market investors in an unregulated
manner. As of June 17, the outstanding margin loans in Chinese stock
markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan (US$364 billion), which is
equivalent to 4.1% of the total market value.

Ordinary people deposit money into the peizi funds, which do business
online. All this money is pooled, and investors can then borrow money
from the pool to invest in stocks, using the purchased stocks as
collateral. The depositors earn a fixed rate of about 1%-1.2% per
month, and the financing firms earn a fee. The rest of the money from
increases in the value of the stock shares goes to the investors.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what could go wrong
with this. The peizi business are allowing leveraged margin loans of
something like ten times the amount of margin that's permitted by
regulated brokers. This allows stocks to be traded quickly between
investors, bidding up the prices and creating a stock market bubble,
which is what happened.

If stock prices start falling, as they have since June 12, then
investors who pledged stocks as collateral have to sell the stocks in
order to maintain the margin requirements. This creates a vicious
cycle, where falling stock prices cause margin calls, margin calls
cause stock sales, and stock sales cause falling stock prices. This
was the major characteristic of American's 1929 stock market crash,
and in fact it's a characteristic of the bursting of most asset
bubbles.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been promising
for months to crack down on peizi companies, and has finally begun to
do so in the past week. Three such companies (Miniu98.com,
Xunqianwang and Quchaoguwang) shut down their peizi services on Monday
because of the CSRC crackdown.

The Shanghai Composite stock market index plunged 30% in the days
following June 12, but then recovered almost 10% in the last three
trading days (Thursday, Friday, Monday). There is widespread fear in
China, sometimes approaching a state of panic, that the index will
start to fall rapidly once more. This is a well-founded fear. The
stock market bubble has burst but has only partially fallen. When
stock market bubbles burst, they never stop collapsing until they
overshoot the index value at the time the bubble started to expand, so
it's likely that the cumulative fall will be 60-75% before it's over.
The Australian and Want China Times (17-Dec-2014) and Want China Times (22-Jun-2015)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram, Jos, Fulani,
Greece, Eurogroup, Alexis Tsipras, Paul Krugman, Wilbur Ross,
China, Shanghai, China Securities Regulatory Commission, CSRC,
peizi, fund-matching

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

China is specifically planning to target east coast cities by means of
ballistic missiles crossing the North Pole. They're also developing a
suite of nuclear submarines to launch missiles. If you arrive before
the first Chinese missile, let me know and we can have lunch.

Ballistic missiles would generally pass over the North Pole, if launcher and launchee are both in the Northern Hemisphere, and has no bearing on fallout patterns. Besides, the radiation goes down 99% by the first 48 hours.

Got a response from a company yesterday, should hopefully have an interview this week.

Cynic,

The level of gibberish you're spouting is higher than normal. Counterforce targeting has nothing to do with humanitarian concerns, it's about eliminating the enemy's most casualty producing weapons. Which you would know, if you were not a pussy and actually joined the military.

*** 15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal
• Another Arab view of Iran's nuclear deal
• Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal
• Congratulations to my readers for sticking with all this

****
**** Arab views of Iran nuclear deal
****


Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Politico)

Media from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries were completely
silent on Tuesday, following the announcement of the Iran nuclear
deal. According to one Israeli analyst: "There’s an [Arab] sense of
disappointment mixed with shock. These countries, and especially
Saudi Arabia, are trying to come to terms with the materialization of
their worst fears."

There was a brief statement from the Saudi Press Agency:

<QUOTE>"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always believed in
the importance of reaching a deal regarding Iran's nuclear program
that ensures preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and at
the same time includes a specific, strict and permanent mechanism
for inspecting all sites - including military ones - along with a
mechanism for rapidly and effectively re-imposing sanctions in
case Iran violates the deal, an official source said in a
statement following the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1
group. ...

Under the nuclear deal, Iran has to use its resources in serving
its internal development and improving the conditions of the
Iranian people, rather than using these resources in destabilizing
the region which is an act that will be strictly faced by the
region's countries."<END QUOTE>

The statement emphasizes two major areas of Arab concern: That Iran
may develop a nuclear weapon for use on the Arabs, and that Iran will
use the money from lifting sanctions to further destabilize the
region.

Frank Gardner, the BBC security correspondent, listed three major area
of concerns for Arabs:

• The fear that Iran will obtain nuclear weapons and use them,
  not on Israel, but on Arab countries.
  
• The major fear: That the unfrozen billions of dollars will be used
  for malevolent purposes in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and for
  fomenting trouble in Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia.
  
• Iran will replace Saudi Arabia as America's big strategic partner
  in the middle east, in the long term.

The Saudis recall that under the Shah of Iran, prior to the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution, Iran was the big US ally in the Middle East.
After 1979, the Saudis became the big ally, and now Iran is returning
to its prior role.

According to Gardner: "What I fear is that Sunni hardliners will say,
right, OK, we need to now support Sunni extremists in the Middle East,
as a bulwark against Shia extremists and Shia militias, which will
extend and prolong the wars and conflicts in Iraq and Syria."
Saudi Press Agency and Times of Israel

****
**** Another Arab view of Iran's nuclear deal
****

Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst for the Qatar-based
al-Jazeera, and he appears on both the English and Arabic channels.
He's a good analyst, though he's consistent with Qatar's policies in
that he's stridently anti-American, anti-Israeli, and anti-Palestinian
Authority, while he's pro-Hamas. Thus, he provides a good overview of
Arab opinion (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"It's important for everyone, and I'll add that it
will affect everything in the Middle East, and everything in terms
of western relations to the Middle East, in so many ways.

Everything from the energy markets to the arms race - the economic
well-being of citizens in Iran to the elections in the United
States, from security in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region, to the
war in Yemen. from ISIS, and the developments in Iraq and Syria,
to what's going on in Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, North
Africa, and so forth.

So I think probably every aspect of the political strategic life
of the Middle East region will change, and the world's approach to
the Middle East region will change with it."<END QUOTE>

BBC correspondent Frank Gardner, quoted above, said that a Saudi
concern is that Iran will replace Saudi Arabia as America's big
strategic partner. Bishara expressed the same concern in a more
colorful way:

<QUOTE>"My idea is that we're going to be seeing slowly the
phasing out of Iran as the bogeyman and the phasing in of ISIS.

For our viewers around the world, it's good to remind everyone
that for the last 5 or 6 decades, every 10 years, Washington and
the West in general have had a bogeyman in the region. So in '58
it was Nasser of Egypt, in '68 it was Yasser Arafat of Palestine,
'78 it was Ayatollah Khomeni, in '88 it was Saddam Hussein, in
'98 it was Osama Bin Laden, back in 2009 it was again Iran's
Ahmadinejad, and now we're going to al-Baghdadi and ISIS.

The Saudis and the rest of the Arab world in general are probably
happy that Iran's nuclear program has been verifiably limited to
civilian development. But everyone is worried about what the rest
of the deal means in terms of a strategic opening for
Iran."<END QUOTE>

Bishara's colorful description doesn't have all the dates right, but
it expresses the view that the "bogeyman" target will move from Iran
to ISIS, and implies that, at the same time, Iran will be the US
partner, while the Saudis may be blamed for ISIS.

What's most interesting about Bishara statements is that he foresees
major changes throughout the Mideast because of the Iran nuclear deal.
He doesn't detail what those changes are, but it's easy to guess what
he means: Iran will use the billions of dollars that Iran will now
receive, to worsen the wars in Yemen, as well as the conflicts in
Syria and Iraq; Iran will support terrorist organizations throughout
the region, from North Africa to Bahrain. Bishara sees these and
other changes as having major effects in the Mideast, far broader than
anyone is saying. Politico and DPA

****
**** Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal
****

As long-time readers know, I've been saying for almost ten years that
Iran would be our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
This has actually been pretty obvious since the early 2000s, when
Iranian college students were holding pro-West and pro-American
demonstrations. Those college students are today increasingly in
positions of power.

Ten years ago, the prediction seemed preposterous to most people, but
we've all watched it coming true in the last couple of years, as those
college students are now in their 30s. The Iran nuclear deal is a big
step forward in that prediction, for the reasons outlined above by
Frank Gardner and Marwan Bishara.

In recent weeks, as it's becoming more and more apparent that the
Generational Dynamics analyses are coming to pass, I've been getting a
lot more questions. I've been discussing these issues at length for
years, but here's a summary:

• China is preparing for a preemptive missile attack on the
  United States, at a time of its choosing. China has been developing
  and deploying hundreds or perhaps thousands of missiles with no other
  purpose than to attack American aircraft carriers, military bases, and
  cities. This will lead to a world war. There's no guarantee that the
  US will survive, but it's more likely that a devastated US will
  survive, and that China will be destitute and destroyed.
  
• China will be allied with its close ally, Pakistan.
  
• China will also attack India. India is preparing for a two-front
  war with China and Pakistan. India will be ally of the United States
  and the West.
  
• Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and appears to be very
  close to an Awakening era climax. (The last time this happened in the
  United States was the 1974 resignation of Richard Nixon.) This will
  signal a complete generational victory of the generation that grew up
  after the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution over the old geezers from the
  war who are still alive. There are people who are predicting regime
  change in Iran, and this is how it will occur. The younger post-war
  generations are pro-Western and have no desire to push Israel into the
  ocean. However, they do want to build a nuclear weapon, as protection
  from Israel and Pakistan.
  
• Furthermore, Shia Muslims and Hindus have been allied in wars
  against Sunni Muslims since the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680, and
  so Iran and India will be allies against Pakistan, China, and the
  Sunni Arab states.
  
• Ethnic Russians are highly xenophobic towards Sunni Muslims, and
  many would like to see the North Caucasus Muslims be gone, one way or
  another. Russians also hate the Mongols and the Chinese, after
  centuries of wars, and love the Europeans, despite wars. Russia is
  also a close ally of India. So Russia will be the ally of Iran, India
  and the West against the Sunni Muslims and Pakistan and Turkey.
  
• Anyone who says that Russia represents an existential threat to
  the United States, as one American General did last week, is
  completely out of touch with reality, in my opinion, based on a
  Generational Dynamics analysis. Those who believe that Russia could
  never be an ally of the United States should recall that Stalin was a
  bitter enemy of the United States before and after World War II, and a
  close ally of the United States during WW II. The political choices
  that politicians make become completely irrelevant during an
  existential generational crisis war.

Putting all this together, America will be allied with India, Iran,
and Russia against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab states.

So I agree with Marwan Bishara when he says that there will be massive
changes throughout the Mideast following the Iran nuclear deal, from
regime change in Iran to bigger sectarian Sunni-Shia conflicts
throughout the region, finally ending up in all-out war.

****
**** Congratulations to my readers for sticking with all this
****

Every once in a while I receive a very nice e-mail message, and would
like to share it with everyone:

<QUOTE>"Every few months I feel compelled to write you.
First and foremost I thank you for your HARD WORK. I see what you
do collecting, sorting, packaging and sending out a concise
snapshot of what's really going on in the world. I don't waste my
time watching news on television since they are always chasing the
cheap and easy stories that come in the form of press releases
from the White House. Because of your e-mails, I knew about Syria
two years before ABC, NBC, or CBS talked about what was going on.
Just now, people are taking notice of China's financial
problems."<END QUOTE>

The writer is one of the almost 500 people who receive the daily
Generational Dynamics World View article by subscribing to the daily e-mail message. Others subscribe to the RSS Feed. Some tens of thousands read it on the Generational Dynamics web site
or the Breitbart National Security web site.

I'd also like to congratulate you, Dear Reader, for sticking with
this. It's not easy going to read these articles, since the news
isn't good. I can tell you that there are many people who couldn't
find Iran on a map if their lives depended on it, and who go to their
happy places when someone gives them bad news. You, Dear Reader, are
definitely not in that category.

The American mainstream media just slavishly prints whatever the White
House tells them to print, and so it's almost always good news, even
if it almost always turns out to be wrong. But I issued a challenge
in 2005 to anyone to find any web site, any politician, any analyst,
or any journalist that has a more successful predictive record than my
web site. Several people have taken up that challenge, but none has
succeeded because no such web site or politician or journalist exists.
The Generational Dynamics methodology is a major breakthrough in
analyzing and relating historical events to current events, and its
predictions have been almost 100% correct over 12 years.

So I hope that you will continue reading the daily World View
articles, and that you will use the information to take whatever
actions you can to protect yourself, your family, your community and
your nation. That's the only thing that can make this effort
worthwhile.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman,
Frank Gardner, Marwan Bishara, Qatar, China, India, Russia,
Pakistan

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The nuclear deal with Iran will be broken by the Iranian side as soon as they have built up their military and industry in sufficient strength to permit a full-scale invasion of the rest of the middle east. WMD arsenals including nukes would be developed and will be deployed as emplaced nukes smuggled into western cities when the time comes. The Nuclear deal is decision imposed from above by the US government, and would be unpopular with the populace especially if trade is established; Subsequent events would prove the people to be correct and the government to be wrong. That the Iranians are lying is shown by the fact that the nuclear facilities are heavily guarded by air defense missile batteries and deployed military bases. One does not need such deployments unless one is hiding something very important there.

@ John J. Xenakis

Neil Howe in a recent interview seemed to suggest a possible confrontation between the US and China, but he said the immediate threat he sees is in the economy.

Here's an interesting article about the possibility of another World War happening: yes it could happen again

If there is a World War 3 between the US and China and their allies how bad could it get, could we be looking at a full scale nuclear war?

Originally Posted by Emman85

@ John J. Xenakis
> Neil Howe in a recent interview seemed to suggest a possible
> confrontation between the US and China, but he said the immediate
> threat he sees is in the economy.

> Here's an interesting article about the possibility of another
> World War happening:
> yes it could happen again

> If there is a World War 3 between the US and China and their
> allies how bad could it get, could we be looking at a full scale
> nuclear war?

I agree with Neil that the most immediate threat is China's economy.
China's economy is very unstable, with collapsing real estate and
stock market bubbles that have been the underpinning of many
businesses for years. The Shanghai stock market crashed 30% in the
weeks following June 12. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) intervened
massively in the stock market, and were able to stop the fall for a
few days, but on Wednesday there was another 3% fall.

China has had massive public rebellions of the "people" against the
authorities -- the huge White Lotus rebellion in the 1790s and 1800s
decade, the Taiping Rebellion in the 1850s and 60s that killed 15% of
the population, and Mao's Long March that launched the Communist
Revolution civil war between Mao and Chiang Kai-shek in the 1930s and
40s killed tens of millions. It's time for a new one.

The CCP has been blubbering "power to the people" for decades, but is
now facing a new rebellion from "the people" that frightens the shit
out of them. A serious stock market panic could trigger a new massive
rebellion by "the people," and the CCP will almost certainly launch a
war to stir nationalism and stop the rebellion. The war might be in
the South China Sea, or against Japan, or against India, or against
the United States.

Any such war would, within days or at most a few months, spiral into a
full scale world war. By the time it's over, every nuclear weapon in
the world will have been used somewhere. I've estimated that between
nuclear weapons, ground war, disease and famine, some 3-4 billion
people will be killed, leaving about 3-4 billion survivors to rebuild
the world after the war.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Any such war would, within days or at most a few months, spiral into a
full scale world war. By the time it's over, every nuclear weapon in
the world will have been used somewhere. I've estimated that between
nuclear weapons, ground war, disease and famine, some 3-4 billion
people will be killed, leaving about 3-4 billion survivors to rebuild
the world after the war.

I'm a newcomer to this line of thought, and while it's gloomy, I think it is plausible. Do you have a writeup of why you feel a sneak attack from the Chinese could come at any time? The only things I know, is the Chinese have been stockpiling raw materials for at least 10 years, though I had figured they were trying to corner the markets in various materials. I also know the generation before me, didn't like the Russians, but really despised the Chinese.

If it turns out you're right, it sounds like I'll be kissing my ass goodbye pretty early on. I live midway between Tampa and Orlando FL, and I figure the bombs that hit MacDill would turn me into a cinder fairly quick.

*** 16-Jul-15 World View -- Mexico's first 'historic' attempt to re-privatize oil industry flops

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece approves harsh reforms as IMF throws Europe under the bus
• Japan's Shinzo Abe pushes 'collective defense' bill for vote
• Mexico's first 'historic' attempt to re-privatize oil industry flops

****
**** Greece approves harsh reforms as IMF throws Europe under the bus
****


Alexis Tsipras addressing parliament on Wednesday

After a day of violence in the streets outside Greece's parliament,
and bitter screaming and shouting inside the parliament, Greece's
parliament passed a set of harsh reforms that prime minister Alexis
Tsipras said that he's supporting only because European officials were
"holding a knife at my neck."

The reforms included increased taxes and pension reforms that were
more harsher than the reforms that voters rejected ten days ago in a
national referendum. A total of 229 MPs voted for the reforms, while
64 voted against. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor of the reforms
only because Tsipras formed a coalition with opposition parties. Of
the MPs in Tsipras's far left Syriza party, 32 voted against the
reforms, and 6 abstained. Some of Tsipra's ministers have been forced
to resign with the result that the Syriza party may no longer exist,
and Tsipras may have to scramble to stay in power. However, Tsipras
has been quoted as saying that he will not resign.

Greece's communist party led labor union street riots in Syntagma
(Constitution) Square outside the parliament building. Protesters
were throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails at police, who were firing
tear gas at the protesters.

With Greece having fulfilled the demands of the Eurogroup, the
Eurogroup can now go ahead and approve by Monday a 6 billion euro
bridge loan that will allow Greece to avoid bankruptcy for a few
weeks. After that, negotiations can begin on the terms of an entirely
new bailout loan, for 86 billion euros.

However, this all comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
essentially thrown Europe under the bus, by saying that it will not
participate in the new bailout loan, which would mean that the
eurozone would have to provide the loan entirely by itself.

The reason for the IMF decision was that the IMF had done the math and
determined that Greece's debt was "not sustainable." This will be no
surprise to regular readers, as I've been saying for years that no
solution exists to Greece's debt crisis. However, it is a surprise
that someone official is finally saying so.

The IMF is saying that the Europeans must make the debt sustainable,
and so they must write off a significant portion of the debt, or else
stretch out the repayments for several decades, meaning in effect that
it will never be paid off. Germany, Finland and the Baltic states
oppose writing off any portion of the debt.

In a related note, CNBC economist Steve Liesman has just returned from
a trip to Germany. He said that when you speak to Germans about the
situation, you begin to sympathize with them not wanting to keep
bailing Greece out over and over. He said that many Germans believe
that Greeks developed a culture of not paying taxes because they were
governed by the Turkish Ottomans for four centuries, and didn't want
to pay taxes to the Ottomans. With a culture of not paying taxes,
there's no point in continuing to bail them out. Independent (London) and Kathimerini and AFP


****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe pushes 'collective defense' bill for vote
****

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe is promising to better his explain
the terms of his security bills, amid large demonstrations shouted
opposition to the bills outside the parliament building, while
opposition lawmakers yelled and waved signs in frustration.

Since the end of World War II, Japan has had a "pacifist"
constitution, prohibiting any military action except in response to a
direct attack on Japan itself. Shinzo Abe has stated that he wants to
remove this restriction from the constitution, but opposition would
prevent him from doing so.

So he's made a decision to "reinterpret" the self-defense clause of
the constitution to allow for what is called "collective
self-defense." I discussed this issue in detail in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.

Under international law, if a nation's ally is attacked by another
country, then the nation may use its armed forces in defense of its
ally. This is known as "collective self-defense," and it particularly
can be invoked by either of two countries that have a mutual defense
agreement, such as the mutual defense agreement signed by Japan and
the United States. However, many people in Japan interpret the
constitution's self-defense restriction to mean that collective
self-defense is prohibited in Japan's constitution. Abe's
reinterpretation makes collective self-defense possible, but
has generated heated opposition.

On Wednesday, Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members were able
to cut off debate in a key committee. The security bill would then be
debated in the lower and upper house before it becomes law. AFP and Shingetsu News Agency (Japan)

****
**** Mexico's first 'historic' attempt to re-privatize oil industry flops
****

Mexico on Wednesday attempted to auction off the rights to drill for
oil in 14 different locations ("exploration blocks") in the Gulf of
Mexico. However, oil companies were definitely unenthusiastic, as the
14 were "shallow water" blocks that had previously been drilled for
decades by Mexico's government-run oil monopoly, Pemex. As a result,
major oil companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and
Total SA, refused to participate, and only two of the 14 blocks were
actually auctioned off, to a consortium of smaller companies.

Mexico nationalized its entire oil industry in 1938, following a
series of labor disputes and crippling national strikes by labor
unions demanding greater pay, amid political claims that the foreign
oil companies were stripping Mexico of its national resources, with
almost no financial benefit to Mexicans. The oil companies retaliated
by organizing an international boycott of Mexican goods, including
Mexican oil. With the start of World War II, the boycotts were
resolved. But the nationalization became a symbol of great national
pride and liberation from American imperialism. The calendar date of
March 18th, 1938, is remembered throughout the country as the day of
"Expropiación Petrolera" (Oil Expropriation). All oil assets were
turned over to a state-owned monopoly called Petróleos Mexicanos,
today called Pemex. The nationalizing also served as a model for
other countries to subsequently nationalize their own oil industries.

As always happens with state monopolies, Pemex has been plagued with
corruption. In recent years, oil production has plummeted, and it's
been increasingly clear that Pemex was top-heavy with bureaucracy, and
lacked the expertise to improve production. Mexico had been the world
world's fifth bigger oil produced, but dropped to tenth.

Despite opposition from most Mexicans, Mexico's president Enrique Peña
Nieto fought for a change in the constitution and laws to re-privatize
the energy industry. In 2013, 75 years after the nationalization,
Nieto announced the auctions, now being referred to as "historic."

Unfortunately, Nieto may have waited too long. Since 2013, oil
prices have fallen over 50%, making much oil exploration
uneconomic. Even Pemex decided not to bid in Wednesday's auction.

There will be more auctions later this year, but it's becoming clear
that Nieto has to offer much more favorable financial terms to the oil
companies if he wants the auctions to succeed, and any such changes
will bring stiff domestic opposition. Bloomberg and MexOnline and
Forbes and Dallas News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Germany, Finland, Steve Liesman,
Japan, Shinzo Abe, Collective defense,
Mexico, Petróleos Mexicanos, Pemex, Enrique Peña Nieto

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