Originally Posted by rds

> I'm a newcomer to this line of thought, and while it's gloomy, I
> think it is plausible. Do you have a writeup of why you feel a
> sneak attack from the Chinese could come at any time? The only
> things I know, is the Chinese have been stockpiling raw materials
> for at least 10 years, though I had figured they were trying to
> corner the markets in various materials. I also know the
> generation before me, didn't like the Russians, but really
> despised the Chinese.

> If it turns out you're right, it sounds like I'll be kissing my
> ass goodbye pretty early on. I live midway between Tampa and
> Orlando FL, and I figure the bombs that hit MacDill would turn me
> into a cinder fairly quick.

Here are some articles on the subject that I've written this year:

** 12-Jul-15 World View -- Pope Francis in Paraguay alludes to 1860s War of the Triple Alliance
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...12.htm#e150712

** 17-Jun-15 World View -- China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...17.htm#e150617

** 26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...26.htm#e150526

** 5-May-15 World View -- China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...05.htm#e150505

** 19-Feb-15 World View -- China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...19.htm#e150219

*** 17-Jul-15 World View -- ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship amid Suez Canal expansion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship
• Attack on Egypt's navy boat comes amid plans for Suez Canal expansion
• Both Greece and Germany in political disarray after IMF bailout statement

****
**** ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship
****


Convoy of ships passing through Suez Canal

The ISIS-linked "Sinai Province" terrorist group sank an Egyptian navy
ship in the Mediterranean Sea near Gaza and Sinai. They claim to have
fired a rocket at the ship, setting it on fire and sinking. Some news
reports confirm this, but the Egyptian military says that there was
only an exchange of gunfire that caused the ship to catch on fire.

The attack comes just two weeks after Egypt said it was in a 'state of war' in northern Sinai,
following
July 1 when the same group conducted simultaneous coordinated terror
attacks at 15 different locations in Sinai. According to Egyptian
officials, at least 300 militants launched that offensive, of whom 100
were killed. The military said that 17 soldiers had been killed, but
other reports put the death toll much higher.

The new attack appears to be a significant escalation by terrorists
linked to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Attack on Egypt's navy boat comes amid plans for Suez Canal expansion
****

What Egyptian officials most fear is a terrorist attack on a
commercial vessel in the Suez Canal that forces the canal to close for
a period of time. Last month, Egyptian authorities arrested 13 Muslim
Brotherhood suspected of planting bombs around the canal. Last year
there was a failed RPG (rocket-propelled grenade attack) on a vessel.
If the attack had succeeded in hitting the bunker of a tanker, the
canal would have been closed for a week for environmental cleanup.

Early in August, Egypt will announce the completion of a Suez Canal
expansion project. The expansion will be second channel along a
portion of the canal, making two-way traffic possible in that portion.
This will reduce the average transit time of vessels from 18 hours to
11 hours, and it will increase the number of vessels transiting the
canal each day from 49 to 97.

There's another reason for the Suez Canal expansion project, a
somewhat ironic one. The Muslim Brotherhood was involved in the
original construction of the canal in 1936 giving them a rare
understanding of the waterway and one they exploited to make the RPG
attack. So the expansion project is altering the infrastructure,
including tunnels, so the Brotherhood can’t use its knowledge of its
inner workings to attack the canal. Helenic Shipping News and Journal of Commerce

****
**** Both Greece and Germany in political disarray after IMF bailout statement
****

As I wrote yesterday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
essentially thrown Europe under the bus,
by declaring that Greece's debt is "unsustainable," and that
the IMF therefore could not participate in a third bailout, unless the
Europeans forgive and write off a large part of Greece's existing
debt. That IMF statement thrown European negotiations over a new 80
billion euro bailout for Greece into disarray.

It focused the mind of Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras.
Greece's economy is in desperate straits, with conditions as bad as
the 1930s Great Depression. The average Greek is 40% poorer than five
years ago. The unemployment rate is 25%, with youth unemployment at
50%. Tsipras realized that his and Greece's situation was so
desperate that he had to capitulate and accept whatever deal the
Eurogroup offered it. But that also triggered the resignation of
several of Tsipras's ministers, especially after a third of the MPs
Tsipras's own far left Syriza party deserted him in the final vote.
The result is that Tsipras will have to make widespread changes to his
government, assuming his government can survive.

The IMF statement also gave more ammunition to Germany's finance
minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who has taken a hard line against simply
bailing Greece out again. His position, which he repeated on
Thursday, is that voters in Germany and some other eurozone countries
will not accept reducing Greece's outstanding debt, either by
forgiving part of it or by extending the payments out for decades,
since the voters will see that as rewarding Greece's profligacy. The
concern is that other countries, such as Italy, Spain, Portugal or
even France, will get into trouble some day, and also demand that
their debt be written off.

Schäuble claims that the only way to save the euro is to give Greece a
"time out" for up to five years, meaning that Greece will return to
the drachma or an IOU-based currency until the economy stabilizes, and
then can return to the euro.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is opposing any "time out" for Greece,
and this has resulted in a split between Merkel and Schäuble, and also
a split in Merkel's conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union
(CDU).

Just as Tsipras needed MPs from opposition parties to get the
parliament to accept the Eurogroup deal on Wednesday, Merkel on Friday
is expected to depend on votes from opposition parties to pass the
approval of a bridge loan to prevent Greece from defaulting next week.
The bridge loan of 7 billion euros is needed by Monday to allow Greece
to make debt repayments to the IMF and the European Central Bank
(ECB). The German parliament is expected to approve the bridge loan
on Friday.

Greece got some additional good news on Thursday, when the ECB
announced that it will again provide a limited amount of Emergency
Liquidity Assistance (ELA), to last for a week. Greece's banks have
been closed for two weeks now, and this will permit them to reopen
next week. However, there apparently will still be a limit of 60
euros per day in ATM withdrawals.

Once Monday arrives, the crisis will continue with chaotic
negotiations over the new 80 billion euro bailout for Greece. But
after the IMF has thrown Europe under the bus, and after Schäuble has
said Greece has to have a "time out," you should expect the shouting
to continue. It's not clear to me personally how it makes sense to
negotiate a new bailout when the IMF is like the child who yelled that
"the Emperor is naked," leaving everyone else no choice but to face
reality. Kathimerini and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Gaza, Sinai, Suez Canal, Sinai Province,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Muslim Brotherhood, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
European Central Bank, ECB, Greece, Alexis Tsipras,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Angela Merkel

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*** 18-Jul-15 World View -- China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense'
• European officials prepare to negotiate Greece's next bailout

****
**** China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense'
****


Anti-government rally in Tokyo on Friday (AFP)

As we reported two days ago,

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe is pushing through the parliament a
law that would reinterpret the clause in Japan's "pacifist"
constitution that the military could be used only in Japan's
self-defense to include "collective self-defense," which would allow
Japan to use the military in defense of an ally anywhere in the world.
For example, if an American warship were attacked by China near
Japanese waters, then Japan would be prohibited from defending it,
unless collective self-defense were allowed.

The reinterpretation is unpopular in Japan according to polls, and
there have been large public demonstrations opposing it. Those who
oppose it say that the self-defense clause was part of a constitution
that was wonderful gift given by the United States to Japan at the end
of World War II, and that it should not be changed. However, Abe has
expressed the view that the constitution is a humiliation imposed on
Japan by its American conquerors.

The reinterpretation is being triggered by the rise and increasing
belligerence of China's military. The United States has pressured Abe
to make the reinterpretation, saying that it's important for the
security of Japan itself.

Not surprisingly, Chinese officials are outraged. China was invaded
by Japan prior to World War II, and China uses that invasion to
justify its own massive military buildup, while at the same time using
it to condemn any military actions by Japan. China is blasting the
reinterpretation as a "nightmare scenario," and the Foreign Ministry
issued a statement saying:

<QUOTE>"[The reinterpretation is] an unprecedented move since
the Second World War ... [which] may lead to significant changes
in Japan’s military and security policies. It is fully justified
to ask if Japan is going to give up its exclusively
defense-oriented policy or change the path of peaceful development
that has been long pursued after the Second World
War."<END QUOTE>

The Chinese News Service was considerably more dramatic and blunt:

<QUOTE>"By fatally slashing Japan's seven decades of
pacifism, like a Shogun's shoulder to waist "kesagiri" finishing
move, in the very year marking the 70th anniversary of the end of
World War II, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday realized his
dream of abandoning postwar order and switching his country back
into war mode.

Despite majority of population's opposition, the country's ruling
coalition led by the historical revisionist rammed through a
series of controversial security bills in Japan's all-powerful
lower house Thursday, marking a backward move meaning the
historically bloodied "samurai sword of Japan" could once again be
wielded by its troops in every corner of the world."<END QUOTE>

I checked out the meaning of "kesagiri," and it's described as
follows: The swordsman cuts his opponent diagonally from the
opponents' right armpit to his left shoulder, then reverses the blade
and cuts downward from opponents left shoulder to his right hip.
After that, the swordsman shakes the blood off the blade and sheaths
his sword.

This sounds like something that Sun Tzu, the author of the ancient
Chinese classic The Art of War, might approve of. The Diplomat and Chinese News Service and Akban School of Martial Arts

****
**** European officials prepare to negotiate Greece's next bailout
****

On Friday, Germany's parliament overwhelmingly approved the 7 billion
euro bridge loan so that Greece won't go bankrupt in the next two or
three weeks.

Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is being widely
identified as the bad guy in the negotiations, the hardliner who's
making everyone suffer, particularly the Greeks. According to a
dramatic but scathing article in the left wing periodical Der
Spiegel:

<QUOTE>"He then inhaled, flashing a pugnacious smile and
turned his wheelchair around. He then prepared for battle of a
kind he had never before fought in his long political career -- a
battle against the Greek government, against American economists,
against large swathes of European public opinion and also, to some
extent, against the chancellor herself.

Had it been up to Schäuble, Germany would have shown the Greeks
the euro-zone door long ago. His problem, however, is that the
chancellor doesn't share this sentiment. Merkel rejects his
insistence because she doesn't want to go down in history as the
government leader responsible for the disintegration of Europe.

If it were any other minister that had so persistently refused to
endorse her line, she would likely have got rid of him long
ago. But she can't do that with Schäuble. His hard line is
precisely what makes him so popular among the
Germans."<END QUOTE>

So apparently it's not just Schäuble who's the bad guy. It's all
those Germans who like Schäuble's hard line.

At any rate, the bridge loan has been OK'ed, and the Emergency
Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for the banks has been OK'ed, and so Greece
won't go bankrupt next week, and Greece's banks may or may not reopen
next week.

You thought that the hard part was over, but that was all the easy
part. Now the hard part really starts.

This crisis has been going on for five years. There have been two
previous bailouts, in 2010 and 2012, totaling 240 billion euros. Now
negotiations are supposed to begin on a third bailout, for 80 billion
euros. The bailout money has been supplied by three institutions --
-- the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and
International Monetary Fund (IMF), formerly known as the "Troika".

The problem now is that the IMF will not participate in the third
bailout, because the debt is unsustainable. The Europeans must be
willing to write off a substantial portion of Greece's debt before the
IMF will participate in a new bailout. But German Chancellor Angela
Merkel has said that writing off any portion of the debt is a red line
that will not be crossed.

To add to the fun, there's even another deadline that's been set:
European officials are saying that a new Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) must be signed by August 10 between Greece and the Troika.

So, here we go! Prepare yourself for another few weeks of daily
crises. Der Spiegel and AFP and Irish Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China,
collective self-defense, kesagiri,
Greece, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Angela Merkel,
European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
European Commission, EC, Troika

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*** 19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal
• The Arab world is disintegrating into war
• Saudi Arabia conducts major anti-terrorism sweep against ISIS
• Massive bomb attack in Iraq market kills over 130

****
**** Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal
****


President Barack Obama and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei (AFP)

I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable
insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of
view, and sometimes gets things wrong. This week's subscriber-only
newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) contains an analysis of the
behind the scenes activities that led to the Iran nuclear deal:

• Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has been
  talking about developing nuclear technology, but it really is a bluff,
  designed to get the US to negotiate the nuclear deal and remove
  sanctions. Iran has no intention of developing a nuclear weapon while
  Obama is in office, since the relationship with Obama is more
  important. -- This is plausible, and probably true
  
• The Shah of Iran was overthrown by Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini in
  1979 with the support of President Jimmy Carter and his national
  security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. The Shah was double-crossed.
  -- This is plausible, but I have no idea whether it's true.
  
• Brzezinski and his long-time associate Brent Scrowcroft were
  influential in the new Iran-US deal. -- This is plausible.
  
• Obama now expects Iran, perhaps naively, to shoulder most of the
  burden of fighting the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in
  Iraq and Syria. -- It's plausible that Obama believes this.
  
• Many Sunni Arab leaders, including Saudi's new king Salman bin
  Abdulaziz al Saud, believe that Obama helped bring about the "Arab
  Spring" in order to help Iran's rise. -- It's plausible that Arab
  leaders believe this, but it's not possible for Obama or any
  politician to have caused or prevented the Arab Spring. For that
  matter, Carter and Brzezinski could not have caused or prevented
  Iran's Great Islamic Revolution. These great events were caused by
  enormous generational changes that could not have been stopped any
  more than a tsunami can be stopped.
  
• Obama turned his back on the Sunni Arab nations because he sees
  the Arab world as disintegrating into bloody, hopeless wars.
  
• The continuing rhetorical fury of Israel's prime minister Benjamin
  Netanyahu over the Iran agreement has outlived its usefulness,
  according to some Israeli officials, who feel he should moderate his
  statements and instead focus on a new strategy to deal with the new
  world following the agreement.

Generally, the Debka view is consistent with my article "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
, including the fact that Iran is becoming
America's ally, and the Sunni Arabs will America's enemy. Debka

****
**** The Arab world is disintegrating into war
****

The same Debka newsletter points out that the number of conflicts in
the Arab world is larger than the number of Arab nations involved in
the conflicts:

• Libya has fallen apart and is mired in tribal warfare and war
  with ISIS.
  
• Egypt is plagued by frequent terrorist attacks by both ISIS (as
  "Sinai Province") and the Muslim Brotherhood.
  
• Syria is mired in an endless war pitting Bashar al-Assad's army
  plus Hezbollah plus Iran plus Shia militias from Iraq, Afghanistan and
  Pakistan versus ISIS plus other jihadists and the Free Syrian Army
  (FSA).
  
• Iraq is in full-scale war with ISIS.
  
• Lebanon is poised on a knife’s edge from the spillover of the
  Syrian war.
  
• Jordan is ostensibly stable, but Bedouin tribes' traditional
  loyalty to the crown is being undermined, and Iran, Syria, Hezbollah
  and ISIS are each poised to move in on Amman.
  
• Yemen is in a civil war, in which Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Gulf
  Cooperation Council (GCC) nations are fighting the Iran-backed
  Houthis. The battle is being exploited by al-Qaeda of the Arabian
  Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS to seize large swathes of land.
  
• Saudi Arabia is caught up in three wars -- Yemen, Iraq and Syria
  -- with grave domestic challenges from the Shias in the east and from
  the 16-19 year old Sunni youths, nearly a third of whom are without
  jobs and have set up clandestine cells across the kingdom dedicated to
  toppling the House of Saud.

On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman have lined
up behind the Iran nuclear deal and have maintained good relations
with Iran. In particular, the UAE expects to gain from the Iran's
post-sanctions import and export trade by having Dubai become the
biggest free port in the Gulf.

Debka says that the Arab governments are, like Israel, in a state of
disarray after being swept aside by the Iran deal, and in a state of
gloom over all the wars going on. The Arab nations need to focus on
creating a new Arab regional structure to replace the outdated Arab
League.

As we've been saying for many years, the Mideast is headed for a major
regional ethnic and sectarian war with 100% certainty, and events seem
to bring that war closer every week. This is particularly true of
last week's major event, the Iran nuclear deal.

It's impossible to predict the sequence of political events that will
lead to this regional war, but the concept of "a new Arab regional
structure" suggests one possibility. My expectation is that, sooner
or later, the Arab states will unite with ISIS to fight Iran, Syria
and Hezbollah, and this new Arab regional structure may be the
political mechanism that brings all these Sunni and Arab elements
together to fight Iran. Debka

****
**** Saudi Arabia conducts major anti-terrorism sweep against ISIS
****

In a major anti-terrorism sweep across the country, Saudi Arabia has
arrested 431 people believed to belong to ISIS cells, "as part of a
scheme managed from troubled areas abroad and aimed at inciting
sectarian strife and chaos." According to the Saudi statement
statement:

<QUOTE>"The number of arrested to date was 431 ... detainees,
most of them citizens, as well as participants holding other
nationalities including Yemeni, Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian,
Algerian, Nigerian, Chadian, and unidentified others.

What combines these cells (which were subjected to security
restrictions by not making direct contacts among themselves) is
the belonging to the terrorist ISIS organization in terms of the
adoption of thought, takfir of society and bloodshed, and then
exchanging roles to implement the plans and objectives dictated
from abroad."<END QUOTE>

There have been several terrorist attacks on Shia mosques in eastern
Saudi Arabia, and the purpose of the announcement in part was to make
it clear to the Shia's in the east that the government is doing
something. The Saudis claim that they've thwarted six additional
planned attacks on Shia mosques.

The fact that over 400 people have been arrested gives an idea of the
scale of threat that the Saudis face in ISIS. Saudi Press Agency and AP and Arab News

****
**** Massive bomb attack in Iraq market kills over 130
****

ISIS has claimed responsibility for a massive bomb attack in a crowded
open-air market in Khan Bani Saad, a mostly Shia town 20 miles
northeast of Baghdad. The death toll is 130 and climbing, making it
the biggest ISIS civilian terror attack in the country.

A man in a truck pulled up to the marketplace in the extreme summer
heat and said he was selling ice at a discount to celebrate the end of
Ramadan. He lured over 100 people to the truck, and the detonated at
least one ton of explosives.

Khan Bani Saad is in Diyala province, which borders Iran. It's the
only province in Iraq where Iranian jets are known to have conducted
airstrikes against ISIS earlier this year. CNN and
AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Shah of Iran,
Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scrowcroft,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Libya, Egypt, Syria, Hezbollah, Afghanistan, Iraq,
Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Oman,
Khan Bani Saad, Diyala

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Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

I'm well aware of Stalin's failure regarding Hitler and Barbarossa, even so by 1944 and 1945 Russia had overrun all of eastern Europe, later in 1949 he gained control of china as well (china did not emerge as an independent power with opposition to both Russia and the US until the early 60s). By the 1950s he Assembled an empire ruling almost half the world. The very reason we have a nuclear arsenal was first developed to combat his empire. The objective of true leadership in any country is ultimately the will to power, and synthesizing the general will of a people for and the military, economic and infrastructural resources of a given nation for basically one ultimate purpose: the will to conquer.

Hmmm, I can think of another WWII leader that fits that bolded philosophy more than Stalin. Two in fact, but one real doozy of one comes to mind particularly.

ETA: Ah hell, I bolded his name in your post too.

Originally Posted by Alioth68

> Hmmm, I can think of another WWII leader that fits that bolded
> philosophy more than Stalin. Two in fact, but one real doozy of
> one comes to mind particularly.
> ETA: Ah hell, I bolded his name in your post too.

In addition, I for one am happy that the United States won its three
crisis wars -- the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and WW II -- with
leaders like George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and FDR, rather than
having to resort to someone like Josef Stalin or Adolf Hitler.

*** 20-Jul-15 World View -- Possible rapprochement in the works between Hamas and Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Car bombs target Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza
• Possible rapprochement in the works between Hamas and Saudi Arabia
• Greece's banks to reopen at start of another stormy week

****
**** Car bombs target Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza
****


One of five cars in Gaza blown up by explosions in Gaza early Sunday morning (AFP)

There were five explosions in Gaza on Sunday from bombs placed
underneath five cars parked in front of their owners' homes. The
explosions were evidently coordinated, as they occurred almost
simultaneously. There were no reports of serious injuries. The cars
belonged to members of the armed branches of two different militant
groups in Gaza, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The two groups issued a
joint statement on Sunday saying:

<QUOTE>"The culprits of the violence are in the camp of
traitors. ...

Guilty hands are attempting to attack the resistance by blowing up
its fighters' vehicles, which only serves the occupier and its
objectives."<END QUOTE>

The "occupier" is Israel. The "resistance" are Hamas and Islamic
Jihad.

The statement is ironic because has reportedly been in peace talks
with Israel for a five year truce while, on the other hand, Hamas has
launched a crackdown on Salafist groups in Gaza, with as many as 100
members or supporters arrested and jailed.

It's believed that the bombs were placed by one of the smaller
militant groups in Gaza that have declared allegiance to ISIS.
AP and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Possible rapprochement in the works between Hamas and Saudi Arabia
****

The increasing influence of Iran through last week's nuclear agreement
with the West and of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
are causing further shifts in Mideast relationships. Relations
between Hamas and Saudi Arabia have been particularly strained because
of Hamas's close relationship with Iran and because Saudi Arabia sided
with the Palestinian Authority in its conflicts with Hamas.

However, a meeting of Friday between Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal and
Saudi Arabia's new king Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is being viewed
as a possible "game changer" in the relationship between the two.
According to a Hamas official, Salah al-Bardawil, "We sensed that
there is a readiness in Saudi Arabia to support the Palestinian
cause."

It's thought that the rapprochement signals that Hamas has decided to
distance itself from Iran, and that the Saudis will help rebuild Gaza,
which is still devastated from last summer's 60 day war with
Israel.

As we wrote yesterday in "19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal"
, the Iran nuclear deal is forcing yet another
realignment in the Arab world, as it deteriorates into war. Events
seem to be moving more quickly in recent weeks. Jerusalem Post and Reuters

****
**** Greece's banks to reopen at start of another stormy week
****

The European lenders have approved a bridge loan for Greece, to
prevent bankruptcy for a few weeks, and are providing liquidity so
that Greece's banks can reopen on Monday for the first time in three
weeks. Greek citizens have been restricted to ATM withdrawals of only
60 euros per day, but now there'll be a small lightening of the rules:
They will be permitted to take an entire week's withdrawals -- 420
euros -- in a single day, so they won't have to stand in line at the
ATM every day.

It'll be anything but smooth sailing this week. Austerity measures
are being imposed on Greece. But these are the same kinds of
austerity measures that the Greek people voted down in a referendum,
and they're the measures that prime minister Alexis Tsipras said that
he doesn't believe in, but had to accept because the European lenders
were "holding a knife at my neck."

In fact, nobody believes any more that the austerity measures will
work. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is calling for a
temporary "Grexit" -- for Greece to leave the eurozone and use a
different currency for up to five years. But German Chancellor Angela
Merkel has completely ruled out any Grexit, and she's apparently
pushing for a new 86 billion euro bailout for Greece, which will kick
the can down the road for a while. In the past she's been adamantly
opposed to forgiving any part of Greece's debt, but she's indicate a
willingness to consider restructuring the Greek debt in the fall,
possibly by extending the payment schedule out for decades. Kathimerini and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Israel, Saudi Arabia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Khaled Meshaal, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Iran,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Angela Merkel

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*** 21-Jul-15 World View -- Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kurds blame Erdogan for ISIS terrorist attack in southeastern Turkey
• Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea

****
**** Kurds blame Erdogan for ISIS terrorist attack in southeastern Turkey
****


Anti-Erdogan demonstrators in Taksim Square in Istanbul on Monday (Reuters)

A massive terrorist explosion in southeastern Turkey on Friday killed
31 and wounded hundreds. It's believed that it was triggered by an
18-year-old female suicide bomber.

It occurred in the town of Suruc, which is on the border with Syria,
just across the border to the Syrian town of Kobani.

In January, Kurdish militias scored a major victory over the Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) by driving all ISIS forces out of Kobani.

Because of the importance of Kobani, ISIS has been trying to retake
the town since then. A month ago, ISIS killed dozens of Kurds, mostly
civilians, in a brutal attack on Kobani. The ISIS militants disguised
themselves in Kurdish YPG uniforms, so they were undetected, until
they opened fire. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by some opposition
politicians, especially from the opposition pro-Kurdish People's
Democratic Party (HDP), of hating the Kurds and of helping ISIS launch the attack agains the Kurds in Kobani.
Erdogan was outraged, and said that HDP
politicians "are carrying out a slander and black propaganda campaign
in the wake of this nefarious attack."

Friday's bomb attack in Suruc targeted a large meeting of pro-Kurdish
activists who were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of
Kobani. They had been chanting slogans and were holding a large
banner with the words "We defended it together, we are building it
together," when the suicide bomber exploded her load.

HDP party politicians condemned Erdogan for not taking enough steps to
prevent terrorism on Turkish soil. On Monday, there were
demonstrations in Istanbul by protesters who blamed the government
for the ISIS suicide bombing. Some activists chanted slogans against
Erdogan and the ruling AK Party, including: "Murderer ISIS,
collaborator Erdogan and AKP." Police in Istanbul fired teargas and
water cannon when the demonstration turned violent. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Zaman (Istanbul) and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea
****

With China building illegal artificial islands in the South China Sea,
the Philippines government is retaliating by reinforcing a naval
vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was beached on Second Thomas Shoal
in 1999. In order to challenge China's claims of sovereignty over the
entire South China Sea, including regions that had belonged to other
countries for centuries, the Philippines government has kept the
beached ship staffed with a small group of marines.

This has gone on for years, and has infuriated the Chinese.
There are at least China coast guard cutters nearby constantly,
to interdict any resupply attempts to the ship. Any supplies
or replacement personnel can arrive only by running past
China's blockade.

For years, the beached ship has kept a low profile, but in view of
China's increasingly aggressive and hostile moves, the Philippines
government is beginning to provide more "maintenance" to the vessel,
with cement, welding tools and other reinforcing materials
brought past the Chinese blockade.

China's foreign ministry accused the Philippines of illegal
activities, repeating that the entire South China Sea
is China's sovereign territory:

<QUOTE>"China strongly protests and firmly opposes such an
act. ...

The relevant activity fully exposed the Philippines’ hypocrisy and
that it is a double dealer. It once again proved that the
Philippines is truly a troublemaker and rule-breaker in the
region."<END QUOTE>

The Philippines government is also restoring the former US naval
facility in Subic Bay to be a full-fledged military base, for the
first time since the US Navy was thrown out from the base. The
Philippines will station new fighter jets and two frigates early next
year. US Naval Institute and AFP and Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Suruc,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Kobani, People's Democratic Party, HDP,
Philippines, China, South China Sea, BRP Sierra Madre,
Second Thomas Shoal, Subic Bay

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*** 22-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's Tsipras lashes out at his own party as new vote approaches

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burundi's president Nkurunziza continues to provoke Hutu-Tutsi tensions
• Greece's Tsipras lashes out at his own party as new vote approaches
• Where will Greece's 86 billion euro bailout come from?

****
**** Burundi's president Nkurunziza continues to provoke Hutu-Tutsi tensions
****


Refugees from Burundi arrive at the Nyarugusu refugee camp in western Tanzania (Reuters)

Burundi's Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza took office in 2005
apparently won re-election on Tuesday in an election that the
international community considered to be non-credible.

Burundi is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the
end of a bloody, genocidal civil war, the 1994 war between Hutus and
Tutsis in Rwanda and Burundi. Now, all the old hatreds that gave rise
to the war are being inflamed again, particularly in the younger
generations. This is raising fears that the civil war will be revived
in all its fury, something that can't happen in a generational
Awakening era because the survivors won't permit it.

Nkurunziza is a Hutu who apparently is doing his best to stoke those
old hatreds with Tutsis. He ran for a third term, in violation of the
constitution, and he's responded to Tutsi protests with brutality and
violence. More than 140,000 people, almost all Tutsis, have fled to
neighboring countries, and are living in squalid refugee camps.

It may be that Nkurunziza is planning to copy the technique of
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe. Mugabe is best known for his 1984 genocidal
pacification campaign known as "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that
washes away the chaff before the spring rain). During that campaign,
accomplished with the help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North
Korea, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe,
were tortured and slaughtered.

Nkurunziza is showing every sign of going down the same road as
Mugabe, and planning an "Operation Gukurahundi" to torture and
slaughter any from the Tutsi tribe who oppose his grab for power. Now
that Nkurunziza has won an illegal third term, the new "Operation
Gukurahundi" may not be far off. International Business Times and BBC and France 24

****
**** Greece's Tsipras lashes out at his own party as new vote approaches
****

Greece got through last week's crisis by means of a parliamentary vote
on Wednesday that approved increased taxes and pension changes,
reforms that prime minister Alexis Tsipras supported only because
European officials were "holding a knife at my neck." And Greece was
rewarded with a bridge loan that kept Greece from defaulting two days
ago, and also allowed Greece's banks to reopen on the same day.

That was last week's crisis. Time to move on to this week's crisis.
The European creditors are demanding a second vote by parliament, on a
mix of tax hikes, market reforms and spending cuts demanded by the
lenders. The plan is that this package will pass Greece's parliament
today (Wednesday), and then on Friday negotiations can begin with the
lenders on an 86 billion euro bailout package. The negotiations are
supposed to be completed by August 20.

Many people in Tsipras's far left Syriza party are furious about
the direction the country is taking. Since about 40 of the
Syriza MPs abandoned Tsipras in last Wednesday's vote, Tsipras
has had to reorganize by firing some Syriza ministers and appointing
a minister from the ANEL Independent party, thought by some on
the left to be xenophobic, and another minister from the
right of center New Democratic party.

On Tuesday evening, Tsipras lashed out at his critics in the
Syriza party by taking a hard line:

<QUOTE>"Up until today I've seen reactions, I've read heroic
statements but I haven't heard any alternative proposal. Syriza
as a party must reflect society, must welcome the worries and
expectations of tens of thousands of ordinary people who have
pinned their hopes on it. ...

If some believe that an alternative leftist plan is Schäuble’s
plan, or grabbing the stock of European Central Bank note, or
giving IOUs to pensioners, let them explain to the Greek
people."<END QUOTE>

The references are to a plan by Germany's finance minister Wolfgang
Schäuble for Greece to leave the euro currency ("Grexit"), and other
plans to transit to a drachma or IOU-based economy. Instead, Tsipras
said that he supports "a compromise, but one which keeps us alive so
we can keep on fighting."
Kathimerini and BBC and Reuters

****
**** Where will Greece's 86 billion euro bailout come from?
****

But OK, even if all goes well in today's vote, and even if the
negotiations that begin on Friday, where is the money coming
from for the 86 billion euro bailout?

As long-time readers know, I've been saying for years that
no solution exists to the Greece crisis. It's not that
no one has been clever enough to find a solution. It's that
no solution exists to be found. More and more, the paradoxes
and contradictions of five years of "kicking the can down
the road" are becoming apparent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) contributed about a
third of the funding of the two previous bailouts in 2010 and 2012,
but threw Europe under the bus last week by saying that the
IMF would not participate in the third bailout unless the
Europeans agree to write off part of Greece's debt -- something
that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, among others, has said
will not happen.

And so, given that contradiction, there will have to be some
imaginative fudging to find a way to provide the money for
the next bailout.

I wrote a couple of times in the past that it was my personal belief
(not a Generational Dynamics prediction) that, one way or another,
Greece would remain in the eurozone. That was before the repeated
convulsive crises of the last few weeks that brought Greece several
times right to the edge of the Grexit cliff.

But now it's even less likely that Greece will leave the eurozone.
After going through the past few horrendous weeks of pain, it's almost
unthinkable to throw it all away. For that reason, there's little
doubt that a way will be found to provide that next bailout. It's
really not that hard. Just find somebody willing to pay for it.
Kathimerini and Politico Europe


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, Rwanda,
Nyarugusu refugee camp, Tanzania, Hutus, Tutsi,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Operation Gukurahundi,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza, ANEL Independent Party,
New Democratic Party, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Angela Merkel
International Monetary Fund, IMF

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*** 23-Jul-15 World View -- Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruc

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Riots and violence across Turkey after Monday's suicide bombing in Suruç
• PKK kills 2 Turkish police officers in retaliation for Suruç blast
• Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç
• Greece's parliament approves European lender reform demands

****
**** Riots and violence across Turkey after Monday's suicide bombing in Suruç
****


The Suruç suicide bomber is thought to have been radicalized in this building, a teahouse called 'Islam,' which closed eight months ago, and is now an advertising office. (Hurriyet)

Protesters rioted and clashed with police in Istanbul and other cities
across Turkey in anti-government demonstrations protesting the
policies of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose policies
many people blame for Monday's massive terrorist attack in the town of Suruç,
on Turkey's border
with Syria. It's believed that the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was behind the suicide bombing in Suruç,
targeting a large meeting of mostly young pro-Kurdish activists who
were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani, which the
Kurds had captured from ISIS in January. There were 32 dead and more
than 100 others injured.

Turkish police have identified Seyh Abdurrahman Alagöz, a 20-year-old
Turkish male Kurd as the person behind the suicide bombing. Another
female suspect has yet to be identified. It's believed that Alagöz
went to Syria six months ago to join ISIS.

Police detained 49 protesters in multiple locations in Istanbul, and
seized three hand-made cluster bombs, 203 Molotov cocktails, a
pump-action rifle, a blank-firing pistol, 125 pieces of ammunition,
two firework-launching platforms and 40 boxes of fireworks. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Telegraph (London)

****
**** PKK kills 2 Turkish police officers in retaliation for Suruç blast
****

The military wing of Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
said on Wednesday that it had killed two Turkish police officers in a
town on the Syrian border as a reprisal for Monday's suicide bombing
in Suruç. According to a web site statement: "A punitive action was
carried out... in revenge for the massacre in Suruç."

The killings took place in Ceylanpinar, a Turkish district that has
been severely affected by fighting between rival factions across the
border in Syria.

Turkey has been for decades the target of terrorist attacks by the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), although in recent years the PKK has
been talking about a peace agreement in return for greater freedoms
for Kurds in Turkey. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç
****

Monday's massive terrorist attack in the town of Suruç,
on Turkey's border with Syria, has polarized the
Turkish people, especially the Turkish Kurds, into believing that
Erdogan has allowed Syria's civil war to come to Turkey.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said many times in the
past that the Kurds are more dangerous than ISIS, but Erdogan may have
to change his tune after Monday's attack. According to an MP from
Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), being
interviewed on the BBC:

<QUOTE>"People are incredibly angry. They are angry that
Turkey is turning into Syria. They're shocked, they're angry, and
they're particularly angry at Mr. Erdogan, who is the president of
Turkey, for his support to all kinds of groups in Syria, and they
blame him for also supporting ISIS."<END QUOTE>

The MP responded to the statement that it's now believed that
Monday's suicide bomber was a Kurd who had joined ISIS:

<QUOTE>"Many Kurdish people join ISIS. Even in my home town,
hundreds of youth went there are joined them, and definitely one
needs to work on this kind of issue. It's going to get dangerous.
There are so many nobodies who want to be somebody, and they
[ISIS] are somehow able to recruit those people. Very openly
they're doing all kinds of campaigns here, recruiting events, even
in my home town, and they always even do military training in the
hills around my home town. And they have all kinds of
support."<END QUOTE>

The evidence given that Erdogan supports ISIS consists of his
statements that the Kurds are more dangerous than ISIS, and also that
Erdogan did nothing to support the Kurds in the fight in Kobani.
Erdogan has furiously denied any support for ISIS, and no real
evidence has been presented that he has.

The real story is probably much more nuanced.

I've been writing since 2011 that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
was a genocidal psychopath who was using torture and mass slaughter,
killing innocent women and children who were peacefully protesting, to
try to exterminate the Sunnis in Syria. A few months later, some
occasional news stories began to appear about Sunni jihadists from
other countries, from Asia to the Caucasus to North Africa, who were
coming to Syria to fight al-Assad. ISIS didn't exist at that time,
but I speculated that if these foreign jihadists kept arriving, then
they would form a terrorist fighting force in Syria, and then return
to their countries and use their terrorist skills at home.

At that time, according to analysts, Erdogan was willing to arm any
group in Syria that was fighting against al-Assad. Erdogan did not
believe that he was arming ISIS, since ISIS didn't exist; he believed
that he was arming anti-Assad forces. As it turned out, he was arming
anti-Assad forces some of which later turned into ISIS.

Erdogan's Syria policy has had the objective of regime change,
removing al-Assad, with secondary objectives of defeating ISIS and of
preventing the Kurds from forming any kind of Kurdistan state in
Syria, because they would also demand part of Turkey for Kurdistan.

So those have the elements of Erdogan's foreign policy towards Syria,
but now that policy is backfiring and falling apart. Now Turkey is
threatened with terror attacks by both PKK Kurds and ISIS, the latter
including ISIS Kurds. That is that Syria's war is now in Turkey, and
many Kurds blame Erdogan for the rise of ISIS, while other disaffected
Turkish Kurds are joining ISIS, possibly with the purpose of a war
against Erdogan's government. AP and Lowy Institute (Australia)

****
**** Greece's parliament approves European lender reform demands
****

Greece's parliament worked deep into the night, and early on Thursday
morning approved resolutions demanded by lenders as prerequisites for
opening negotiations for a third bailout, for 86 billion euros.

The approved reforms will affect the courts, the civil procedure code,
and the banks, causing them to adopt a regulatory system used by other
European Union countries.

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras urged MPs to endorse the
reforms:

<QUOTE>"Conservative forces within Europe still insist on
their plans to kick Greece out of the euro. We chose a compromise
that forces us to implement a program we don’t believe in and we
will implement it, because the choices we have are
tough."<END QUOTE>

As a separate matter, Greece is planning for the reopening of
the Athens Stock Exchange, after being closed for four weeks.
However, severe restrictions on buying and selling will be
in place to prevent a complete stock market crash.

Prolonged restrictive measures could lead to a downgrade by MSCI
Inc. to “standalone market,” a designation that includes Jamaica,
Botswana, Zimbabwe and mainland China, from emerging market. That
might mean trading and prices would decline even further and Greek
companies would be cut off from a crucial source of funding. Kathimerini and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Suruç,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Kobani, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Seyh Abdurrahman Alagöz,
Ceylanpinar, People's Democratic Party, HDP, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Jamaica, Botswana, Zimbabwe, China

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*** 24-Jul-15 World View -- In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's politics become vitriolic after Suruç massacre
• In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria
• Turkish soldier killed by ISIS in first gunfight across Syrian border

****
**** Turkey's politics become vitriolic after Suruç massacre
****


Erdogan with his son Bilal and daughter Sümeyye (Reuters file)

In the fallout of Monday's terrorist attack on Suruç by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), Turkey's politics are
becoming increasingly vitriolic.

Kurds are blaming President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for either supporting
ISIS, or at least for not doing anything to stop them. As we wrote
yesterday in Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç
, there is no credible
evidence that Erdogan has been supporting ISIS, but before ISIS came
into existence, he may have been providing weapons to anti-Assad
forces that later became part of ISIS.

Turkey's politics have never been pleasant, but the Suruç massacre
appears to have created a split between the Kurds and pro-Erdogan
activists that's even more vitriolic than before.

A mainstream Turkish newspaper fired well-known newspaper columnist
Kadri Gürsel on Thursday, because he sent a tweet that criticized
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The tweet said:

<QUOTE>"It is shameful that foreign leaders call the person
who is the number one culprit of ISIL terrorism in Turkey and
convey their condolences over the Suruç bombing."<END QUOTE>

Gürsel is referring to Erdogan as the "number one culprit," and the
foreign leaders are Barack Obama and other leaders who called Erdogan
to convey their condolences over Monday's terrorist attack on Suruç by
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

It's believed by some that Gürsel was fired under orders from
Erdogan, as the newspaper is headed by a close Erdogan associate.
Erdogan has been infuriated by journalists who have criticized
him, and he has allegedly ordered the firing of many of them.

A recently published report has claimed that Erdogan's daughter
Sümeyye Erdogan has been linked to ISIS, and is currently running a
'covert' hospital exclusively to treat wounded ISIS terrorists.
Erdogan issued a statement that did not directly address the specific
charges, but said:

<QUOTE>"Every day, a new one is being added to ‘perception
management’ operations aimed at harming our country’s image by
creating an impression of a relation between Turkey and the
terrorist organization, Daesh.

Groundless claims that try to show our President Mr. Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, his son Bilal Erdogan and his daughter Sümeyye Erdogan in
relation with Daesh, which have been immorally released in the
recent days, are part of a smear campaign conducted against Turkey
and are all lies."<END QUOTE>

With many Kurds, after the Suruç massacre, blaming Erdogan for the
supporting ISIS terrorists, Erdogan struck back on Thursday. He
accused leaders of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) of
supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorists who killed
two policemen in southeastern Turkey earlier in the week. In a
statement, Erdogan said:

<QUOTE>"It’s disgraceful for circles - who have openly
expressed that they rely on the terror organization - to not be
able to show courage to condemn and instead remain silent on the
PKK’s brutal terror acts."<END QUOTE>

The HDP leadership expressed its regret over the shooting, but did not
condemn the PKK. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and International Business Times

****
**** In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria
****

In the fallout of Monday's terrorist attack on Suruç by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), Turkey has made a major
reversal, and will allow American warplanes to launch attacks against
ISIS in Syria from Incirlik Air Base.

It's believed that ISIS was behind the suicide bombing in Suruç,
targeting a large meeting of mostly young pro-Kurdish activists who
were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani, which the
Kurds had captured from ISIS in January. There were 32 dead and more
than 100 others injured.

Turkey is a member of Nato, and Incirlik Air Base is a joint U.S.-
Turkish installation that houses the U.S. Air Force's 39th Air Base
Wing. However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has in the
past refused to permit American warplanes take off from Incirlik to
fight ISIS for two reasons:

• Erdogan did not want to get militarily involved in the war in
  Syria. But after the attack on Suruç, the war in Syria is coming to Turkey
  whether Erdogan likes it or
  not.
  
• Erdogan's first priority has been regime change, removing Syria's
  genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, while the US has made that a less
  important objective than fighting ISIS, and it may not be a US
  objective at all in view of the nuclear agreement with Iran. However,
  in the latest negotiations to get clearance to use Incirlik, it's
  possible that the US made some concessions to Turkey, and one of those
  concessions might have been a change of strategy with respect to
  al-Assad. However, no such change has been announced.

US warplanes fighting ISIS currently have to leave from Iraq or Jordan
or other Arab nations. Using Incirlik would allow US warplanes to
move more quickly and efficiently.

In a potentially major strategic change in the fight against ISIS in
Syria, Turkey and the US will set up a 90 km no-fly zone, 40-50 km
deep into Syria's territory. The no-fly zone will prevent ISIS or the
al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) from gaining
territory in the region.

Warplanes from the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria will not be
permitted within the no-fly zone, and those which violate this will be
targeted. AP and Washington Post and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Turkish soldier killed by ISIS in first gunfight across Syrian border
****

For the first time, there was a gunfight between Turkish soldiers and
ISIS militants across the border between Turkey and Syria. Five ISIS
militants approached the border and fired on Turkish soldiers. Turkey
returned fire, and also used artillery to fire at suspected ISIS
positions. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Suruç,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Bilal Erdogan, Sümeyye Erdogan,
Incirlik Air Base, U.S. Air Force's 39th Air Base Wing,
Syria, Kobani, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Kadri Gürsel,
People's Democratic Party, HDP, Syria, Bashar al-Assad

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*** 25-Jul-15 World View -- Commodities and world trade volume plunge as China pumps stock market

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's warplanes bomb ISIS and PKK strongholds in Syria
• Commodities and world trade plunge, signaling stock market decline
• China's stock market partially 'recovers' after destruction

****
**** Turkey's warplanes bomb ISIS and PKK strongholds in Syria
****


Turkish soldiers patrol near the border with Syria on Friday (AP)

Just a week ago, it was Turkey's clearly stated policy to stay out of
the war in Syria. But as we wrote yesterday in Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç
, Turkey no longer has any choice but to
respond.

In a major policy reversal earlier this week, Turkey will let the US use Incirlik
Air Base to fight the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria,
something that had been refused all along.

But perhaps the biggest change is that now Turkey's warplanes will
join the U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria.
Turkey has already begun striking targets in Syria, but is doing so
without violating Syria's air space. Turkish officials did not rule
out doing so in the future.

However, Turkey has taken on an even more ambitious task of airstrikes
against both ISIS targets and Kurdish PKK targets in Syria. If I
understand this correctly, Turkish warplanes will be striking at
Kurdish militias in Syria, perhaps the same militias that are fighting
against ISIS in Syria. This comes as Kurds in Turkey are accusing
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of allegedly helping ISIS in the fight
over the Syrian city of Kobani. If Turkish warplanes are going to be
striking Kurdish militias that are fighting ISIS, then those
accusations are going to become much louder.

As of this week, Turkey is now embarking on an extremely dangerous
course of action. Generational Dynamics predicts that the entire
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, and that war seems to come
much closer every week. AP and Anadolu Agency (Turkey) and Washington Post

****
**** Commodities and world trade plunge, signaling stock market decline
****

For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, commodities and
trade figures are signaling a warning for the global economy.

Gold has collapsed to five year lows. Copper just hit a six year low.
Oil prices have had the worst price crash in 45 years. World trade
volume has been declining sharply for five months.

Some analysts blame the plunge on the appreciating dollar and China's
failing economy. Whatever the reason, forecasts are that the trends
will continue for the rest of the year. Analysts are mixed about the
consequences, but with so many declining signals, a decline in US
stocks of 30-50% would not be a surprise to some.


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.18 on July 24 (WSJ)

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (July 24) was at an astronomically
high 21.18. This is far above the historical average of 14,
indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst
at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will
fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as
1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Zero Hedge and Market Watch and Bloomberg

****
**** China's stock market partially 'recovers' after destruction
****

As we reported several times, China's Shanghai Composite stock market
index peaked on June 12, and then plunged 30% in the next four weeks.
It has now recovered about 1/4th of what it lost, because of
extraordinary intervention by China's government:

• China's state-owned banks have lent a combined 1.3 trillion
  yuan (US$209 billion) to the China Securities Finance Corp (CSFC), an
  arm of the Chinese stock market regulator, to be used to purchase
  stock shares, in order to push up stock prices.
  
• State-owned or state-affiliated companies were forced to buy stock
  market shares, once again to push up prices. Industrial Bank, for
  instance, snapped up 9.9 billion yuan of its own shares.
  
• Trading was frozen on shares for hundreds of companies where the
  prices of the shares might have fallen. This tactic has not only
  prevented margin calls from being triggered; by limiting the supply of
  stocks that can be traded, it has boosted liquidity to the rest of the
  market.

The "China dream" is for China to replace the United States
militarily, by taking control of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and
also to do so financially, by replacing the dollar with the Chinese
yuan as the global reserve currency. In order to do that, China has
to prove that it can provide a world-class stock market that can
operate free of government intervention.

For that objective, the last month has been a disaster. China has
effectively destroyed the Shanghai stock market as a market. China
has absolutely no credibility left in its ability to provide a
world-class stock market.

And that's not the worst of it. Where is China going to go next?
China has intervened massively to prop up an imploding bubble. China
may have bought a few weeks' time, but that bubble is going to
implode, wrecking the savings of millions of ordinary people, often
older people, who invested their life saving in the stock market when
the bubble was growing. China has a history of massive "people's
rebellions" against an oppressive government. The last one was Mao's
Communist Revolution that ended in 1949. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, China is now overdue for the next one.
Quartz and Straits Times and Investors.com

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Suruç,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Incirlik Air Base, Syria, Kobani, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
gold, copper, China, Shanghai, China Securities Finance Corp, CSFC,
Industrial Bank

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*** 26-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of pro-Kurd demonstrators march in Paris
• Turkey - PKK 'peace process' threatened by new Turkish war policy
• Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'
• Arab News: Turkey is lying about the attack in Suruç

****
**** Thousands of pro-Kurd demonstrators march in Paris
****


Protesters in Paris carrying a banner saying, 'Stop Erdogan's double game' (AP)

More than 1,000 Kurds and leftist Turks have marched in Paris to
protest airstrikes by Turkey on Kurdish militant camps in northern
Iraq. One banner held high at Saturday's march read, "To hit the PKK
is collaborating with ISIS." AP

****
**** Turkey - PKK 'peace process' threatened by new Turkish war policy
****

Turkey's rapidly changing policy towards the war in Syria seems to
have become more risky, complex and dangerous every day for the last
six days, ever since Monday's terror attack on Suruç
killing 32 mostly young pro-Kurdish activists who
were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani, which the
Kurds had captured from ISIS in January. No one has claimed
responsibility for the Suruç attack, but Turkish officials believe
that the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is
responsible.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a communist separatist terror
group advocating a separate Kurdish state of Kurdistan to be formed
out of regions from Syria, Turkey and Iraq, has been conducting
terrorist attacks against Turkish government officials for decades,
including kidnapping, bombings and assassinations. Turkey and the PKK
agreed to a ceasefire and "peace process" in 2013.

But now, that peace process is in jeopardy, after Turkey's major
U-turns and changes in foreign policy this week. Many people in
Turkey fear a full-scale return to hostilities between the armed
forces and PKK.

Early on Saturday, Turkish warplanes launched attacks on PKK
strongholds in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq, near the border
with Turkey. These attacks were an almost daily occurrence before the
ceasefire agreement.

Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) issued a
statement criticizing Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for
"mixing the fight against the Kurdish people with the fight against
ISIS," and added:

<QUOTE>"The AKP [Erdogan's Justice and Development Party]
government, state institutions and the army have unfortunately
taken steps that aborted the solution and peace process, as well
as the effective ceasefire.

A plan to win back a single party majority again by creating a
nationalist and militarist climate, making an impression of
engaging in a comprehensive struggle against terrorism is a plan
to burn the country."<END QUOTE>

According to a statement on the PKK web site: "The truce has no
meaning anymore after these intense air strikes by the occupant
Turkish army," alluding to the separatist claim that Turkey is
striking the "independent state of Kurdistan." Hurriyet (Ankara) and AP and Hurriyet

****
**** Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'
****

In addition to the airstrikes in northern Iraq, Turkey's warplanes
have been striking ISIS targets in northern Syria, with the stated
objective of setting up a "safe zone" or a "no-fly zone."

This concept has a long history. Ever since the tsunami of Syrian
refugees began flooding across the border into Turkey in 2011, Turkish
officials have suggested that there may be a need to set up a "no-fly
zone" in northern Syria to which the refugees could flee without
having to cross into Turkey. However, this suggestion was never
implemented, mainly because Turkey didn't want to enter the war in
Syria, and Syria's president was loudly objecting to any talk of
Turkey striking Syrian territory.

Like so many other things, this policy has been completely reversed
since Monday's attack on Suruç. Turkey is now planning to strike at
both ISIS and PKK targets in northern Syria.

Prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Saturday gave the following
explanation for the need for "natural safe zones":

<QUOTE>"Unfortunately Turkey is surrounded by a ring of fire.

In such an atmosphere, Turkey tries to keep her democracy and
development alive... these operations have carried a message to
the countries in the region and to international circles: whatever
happens in Syria and Iraq, in our border regions, we will not
allow them to threaten Turkey's security and will not hesitate to
take necessary measures."<END QUOTE>

This has generated accusations that Turkey is using the that attacks
on ISIS are a thinly veiled cover for planned attacks on Kurdish (PYD)
forces in Syria.

The Kurds in northern Syria are separated into two large enclaves, one
in the east up the border with Iraq, and one in the west. A major
objective for the Kurds fighting ISIS in Syria is to control the
region between the two enclaves and declare the united region a
Kurdish state, something that Turkey will not tolerate.

Turkish sources say that there are currently no plans for airstrikes
to target the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) forces in Syria,
which are thought to be linked to the PKK in Turkey. But those plans
could change if the Kurds gain more control of the border with Turkey.
This was the meaning of Davutoglu's statement that "whatever happens
in Syria and Iraq, in our border regions, we will not allow them to
threaten Turkey's security and will not hesitate to take necessary
measures."

However, Turkmen in northern Syria claim that they're being driven out
of their homes by Kurdish PYD forces, and they are requesting help
from Turkey's government. Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC and AP and Anadolu (Turkey)

****
**** Arab News: Turkey is lying about the attack in Suruç
****

An analysis in the Arab News says that the evidence points away from
the claim that ISIS was responsible for the attack in Suruç, and
points to the PKK as the perpetrator:

• Suruç is controlled by the Kurdish HDP party in Turkey, and
  yet surveillance cameras didn't work and the arrivals to the
  conferenced were not frisked by the police, even though it's a
  high-risk area.
  
• The suicide bomber was female, but ISIS does not use female suicide
  bombers in its attacks, while PKK makes a special effort to do
  so.
  
• ISIS has not claimed responsibility for the attack, as it always
  does in other cases.
  
• No actual PKK members were hurt. The target was young university
  students that sympathized with PKK, and had been drawn to the
  conference by the PKK.
  
• ISIS has never made a previous attack on Turkish soil. For 40
  years, there has been only one terrorist group posing a threat to
  Turkey: the PKK.

The columnist concludes darkly that the attack was a conspiracy
involving Turkey, the PKK, and the United States, although no evidence
of that was presented.

I believe that Turkey's new policies this week are potentially
explosive. I've been saying for a long time that there is no war of
Muslims versus the West, at least not yet. What there is is a massive
and increasing war of Muslims versus Muslims, that's becoming
significantly worse every week. Many analysts are pointing to the US
nuclear deal with Iran as forcing Sunni Muslim governments to become
more militarily aggressive (in Syria and Yemen). As we wrote last
week in "19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal"
, the Iran nuclear
deal is forcing yet another realignment in the Arab world, as it
deteriorates into war. Turkey's new policies advance that trend even
further. Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Suruç,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Kobani, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Iraq, Kandil mountains,
People's Democratic Party, HDP, Syria, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Democratic Union Party, PYD

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

> Cynic Hero loves Donald Trump for President because he fantasizes
> that Donald Trump would slaughter, torture and starve millions of
> people, as Stalin did.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> A vote for Jeb or Hillary would simply anchor the US into the role
> of early 20th century Britain and France, a full-scale decline
> followed by total exhaustion in the crucible of the next hegemonic
> transition. By 1970 neither Britain or france were great powers
> any longer; although both liked to complain about it to the
> US.

It's beginning to look like Donald Trump is becoming
the new Grey Champion.

*** 27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline
• Al-Assad announces general amnesty for Syria's army deserters
• Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline
****


Grim Bashar al-Assad gives national speech on Sunday (SANA/AP)

As we've been reporting since April,
the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been
increasingly showing signs of collapse, losing one major city after
another either to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) or to the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front).

On Sunday, a clearly weakened Bashar al-Assad gave a nationally
televised speech that was almost a speech of desperation. He said
that there have been so many defections and desertions, that the
army's fighting strength has been cut deeply. As a result, the regime
has had to retreat from some regions of the country in order to hold
on to other regions of the country.

According to al-Assad:

<QUOTE>"If we thought we will be victorious in all the
battles everywhere at the same time ... this is unrealistic and
impossible. We are forced to give up areas to move those forces
to the areas that we want to hold onto. ...

Are the Syrian armed forces able ... to defend the homeland? Yes,
it is certainly capable.

But the army in the first degree is a matter of manpower which
would then utilize the weapons and ammunition. Everything is
available but there is a lack of manpower."<END QUOTE>

The last sentence is presumably an allusion to the massive flows
of heavy weapons that Russia is supplying to the genocidal
dictator.

The question of what percentage of Syria the regime still
controls was discussed by several analysts on the BBC. According
to some reports, the regime controls only 25% of the country.
That may be true, but much of the other 75% is most desert
and far-flung rural areas where there are few people. Among
the major cities and other strategic regions, the regime
controls more than 25%, but less than 50%.

Right now, the regime controls Damascus, Homs and strongholds of
Assad's minority Alawite sect in coastal areas. If there are any
further losses to ISIS or al-Nusra, then those will be very
significant. So the question is: Was al-Assad admitting past losses,
or was he preparing the public for future, more significant losses?
That question is unanswered. Telegraph (London) and Reuters and ARA News (Syria) and LA Times

****
**** Al-Assad announces general amnesty for Syria's army deserters
****

Sunday's speech by Bashar al-Assad comes one day after state media
announced, on Saturday, a decree for a general amnesty for military
deserters who violated the country's compulsory military conscription
law. Deserters have two months to turn themselves in to take
advantage of the amnesty.

It's not believed that this decree will result in a flood of defectors
and deserters returning the army, if that's what al-Assad is hoping
for. Daily Star (Beirut) and BBC

****
**** Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened
****

Citizens of Turkey are bewildered by the breathless speed of events.
In less than a week, Turkey has turned from a country determined to
avoid war into a country fighting two enemies in two countries.
Turkey's warplanes are bombing Kurdish PKK strongholds in northern
Iraq and ISIS strongholds in northern Syria, with the threat of
bombing Kurdish PYD strongholds in northern Syria, where they are
fighting ISIS. In addition, security forces over the weekend arrested
over 400 people in cities across the country, accusing them of been
PKK militants, and a scheduled political rally in Istanbul in support
of Kurdish rights was ordered cancelled in order to avoid violence.

On Sunday, Turkey invoked Nato's Article 4, which allows member states
to request a meeting if they feel their territorial integrity or
security is under threat.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called a Nato meeting
for Tuesday, to be attended by all 28 member nations. According
to a statement by Stoltenberg:

<QUOTE>"Turkey requested the meeting in view of the
seriousness of the situation after the heinous terrorist attacks
in recent days, and also to inform Allies of the measures it is
taking. NATO Allies follow developments very closely and stand in
solidarity with Turkey."<END QUOTE>

Article 4 is less potent than Article 5, which recognizes an attack
against one or more members as an attack against all. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and AP and Nato

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Damascus, Homs, Turkey, Nato,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Democratic Union Party, PYD

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline
• Al-Assad announces general amnesty for Syria's army deserters
• Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline
****


Grim Bashar al-Assad gives national speech on Sunday (SANA/AP)

As we've been reporting since April,
the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been
increasingly showing signs of collapse, losing one major city after
another either to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) or to the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front).

On Sunday, a clearly weakened Bashar al-Assad gave a nationally
televised speech that was almost a speech of desperation. He said
that there have been so many defections and desertions, that the
army's fighting strength has been cut deeply. As a result, the regime
has had to retreat from some regions of the country in order to hold
on to other regions of the country.

According to al-Assad:

<QUOTE>"If we thought we will be victorious in all the
battles everywhere at the same time ... this is unrealistic and
impossible. We are forced to give up areas to move those forces
to the areas that we want to hold onto. ...

Are the Syrian armed forces able ... to defend the homeland? Yes,
it is certainly capable.

But the army in the first degree is a matter of manpower which
would then utilize the weapons and ammunition. Everything is
available but there is a lack of manpower."<END QUOTE>

The last sentence is presumably an allusion to the massive flows
of heavy weapons that Russia is supplying to the genocidal
dictator.

The question of what percentage of Syria the regime still
controls was discussed by several analysts on the BBC. According
to some reports, the regime controls only 25% of the country.
That may be true, but much of the other 75% is most desert
and far-flung rural areas where there are few people. Among
the major cities and other strategic regions, the regime
controls more than 25%, but less than 50%.

Right now, the regime controls Damascus, Homs and strongholds of
Assad's minority Alawite sect in coastal areas. If there are any
further losses to ISIS or al-Nusra, then those will be very
significant. So the question is: Was al-Assad admitting past losses,
or was he preparing the public for future, more significant losses?
That question is unanswered. Telegraph (London) and Reuters and ARA News (Syria) and LA Times

****
**** Al-Assad announces general amnesty for Syria's army deserters
****

Sunday's speech by Bashar al-Assad comes one day after state media
announced, on Saturday, a decree for a general amnesty for military
deserters who violated the country's compulsory military conscription
law. Deserters have two months to turn themselves in to take
advantage of the amnesty.

It's not believed that this decree will result in a flood of defectors
and deserters returning the army, if that's what al-Assad is hoping
for. Daily Star (Beirut) and BBC

****
**** Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened
****

Citizens of Turkey are bewildered by the breathless speed of events.
In less than a week, Turkey has turned from a country determined to
avoid war into a country fighting two enemies in two countries.
Turkey's warplanes are bombing Kurdish PKK strongholds in northern
Iraq and ISIS strongholds in northern Syria, with the threat of
bombing Kurdish PYD strongholds in northern Syria, where they are
fighting ISIS. In addition, security forces over the weekend arrested
over 400 people in cities across the country, accusing them of been
PKK militants, and a scheduled political rally in Istanbul in support
of Kurdish rights was ordered cancelled in order to avoid violence.

On Sunday, Turkey invoked Nato's Article 4, which allows member states
to request a meeting if they feel their territorial integrity or
security is under threat.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called a Nato meeting
for Tuesday, to be attended by all 28 member nations. According
to a statement by Stoltenberg:

<QUOTE>"Turkey requested the meeting in view of the
seriousness of the situation after the heinous terrorist attacks
in recent days, and also to inform Allies of the measures it is
taking. NATO Allies follow developments very closely and stand in
solidarity with Turkey."<END QUOTE>

Article 4 is less potent than Article 5, which recognizes an attack
against one or more members as an attack against all. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and AP and Nato

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Damascus, Homs, Turkey, Nato,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Democratic Union Party, PYD

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Others have hinted at this, I will now bluntly state it. By engaging NATO, ISIS diverts much needed attention from NATO's northeastern and eastern fronts. I have to conclude that even though the SCO are supplying weapons to Assad, they are also helping ISIS, in order to distract NATO from more urgent matters.

*** 28-Jul-15 World View -- China faces nightmare political scenario with stock market plunge

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US military says China is lying about its artificial islands
• China state TV shows mock military attack on Taiwan
• China faces nightmare political scenario with stock market plunge
• Turkey-US 'ISIS-free zone' in Syria becomes increasingly controversial

****
**** US military says China is lying about its artificial islands
****


Numerous Chinese dredging vessels around an artificial island in May 2 photo taken by American P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft

Adm. Harry Harris, commander of U.S. Pacific Command,
indicated that China has been consistently lying by denying
the military purpose of the artificial islands they're building
in the South China Sea:

<QUOTE>"They are building ports that are deep enough to host
warships and they’re building a 10,000-foot runway at Fiery Cross
Reef. A 10,000-foot runaway is large enough to take a B-52,
almost large enough for the Space Shuttle, and 3,000 feet longer
than you need to take off a 747. So, there’s no small airplane
that requires a runway of that length. They’re building revetted
aircraft hangars at some of the facilities there that are clearly
designed, in my view, to host tactical fighter aircraft. ...

Most countries choose to pursue diplomatic means to address their
disputes. China, on the other hand, is changing the status quo in
the region through aggressive coercive island building without
meaningful diplomatic efforts toward dispute resolution or
arbitration. China is changing facts on the ground...essentially,
creating false sovereignty ... by building man-made islands on top
of coral reefs, rocks, and shoals. These activities are harming
the environment and will not strengthen any country’s legal claims
to disputed areas in the South China Sea."<END QUOTE>

One of the excuses that China has been giving is that other
countries have also built artificial islands. But according
to Harris:

<QUOTE>"While Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan
have also conducted land reclamation in the South China Sea, their
total — approximately 100 acres over 45 years — is dwarfed by the
size, scope and scale of China's massive buildup."<END QUOTE>

He added that China has reclaimed almost 3,000 acres in only 18
months, resulting in enormous harm to the fragile ecosystem. Defense One and Stars and Stripes

****
**** China state TV shows mock military attack on Taiwan
****

Earlier this month, Chinese state TV ran video of People's Liberation
Army soldiers storming a mock-up of Taiwan's presidential palace
during a major military exercise in northern China.

China has frequently made it clear that Taiwan is sovereign territory
of mainland China, and there will be a military attack if Taiwan makes
any kind political change to become more independent. As a result,
Taiwan's pro-China and pro-Independence governments have for years
been following a careful dance not to antagonize China too much, while
also maintaining a sufficient arm's length from China. Nonetheless,
China has made it clear that, at some point, Taiwan will have to
return to the mainland.

It's hard to know what to make of the mock attack on Taiwan's
presidential palace appearing on state TV. Was it an intentional
signal that a military invasion is close? Or was it left in the video
unintentionally? A YouTube link to the video is given below, and the
mock attack segment runs from about 3:01 to 3:04 (that is, only three
seconds).

A Chinese military attack on Taiwan will bring the U.S. into war China
within hours. Even if the U.S. appeases China and doesn't require,
something that I believe is almost vanishingly unlikely, then
increased tensions in the region will spiral into war before long.
Business Insider and YouTube

****
**** China faces nightmare political scenario with stock market plunge
****

China's stock market appears to have been recovering since July 9,
after falling 30% since June 12, due an imploding bubble. As I wrote
in "25-Jul-15 World View -- Commodities and world trade volume plunge as China pumps stock market"
, China has all but destroyed the Shanghai stock market
as a market, by massively intervening to keep the bubble from
imploding further. A bubble never implodes only halfway, so there was
never any chance that the intervention would work.

On Monday, the Shanghai composite index plunged 8.5%, the greatest
one-day market plunge since 2007, and so now the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) faces a double humiliation. First, it's now clear to a
lot of people that the stock market will crash, and that millions of
people, especially elderly people, will lose their life savings.

And second, it's now clear that the great, powerful CCP is not
powerful enough to control the stock market. This may be enough to
cause a panic or even a rebellion.

Typically in these situations, there are wild gyrations. The index
may fall 10% one day and rise 10% the next day. There might be a
bounce back on Tuesday. On the other hand, more than 1,700 stocks
fell by the daily 10% limit on Monday, indicating that they would have
fallen even more if allowed. This would indicate a further plunge on
Tuesday. Either way, the bubble must continue imploding at some
point. (At this writing, on Monday evening ET = Tuesday morning in
Shanghai, the market has already fallen 4%, and stocks are down across
Asia. Commodities continue to fall.)

The CCP is now going to be considering what further desperate measures
they can try. The government has already poured some $800 billion
into the market within a few days. As a last resort, the CCP may have
to "print" a lot of money and purchase stock shares from anyone who
wants to sell them.

China's history is filled with huge, massive internal rebellions
(civil wars). The last three were the White Lotus Rebellion
(1796-1805) and the Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), Mao's Communist
Revolution (1934-49), killing millions or tens of millions of people
each time. These occur at regular intervals, with each new one
occurring at about the time that the survivors of the preceding one
die off. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's time
for the next one and, in fact, it's a bit overdue. The CCP officials
are aware of that even if they don't know anything about generational
theory. Bloomberg and Asia Times

****
**** Turkey-US 'ISIS-free zone' in Syria becomes increasingly controversial
****

Turkey last week announced US warplanes could use Turkey's Incirlik
and Diyarbakir air bases to launch attacks on the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria. The terms of the
US-Turkey agreement that led to that announcement are becoming
clearer, and are generating controversy.

The heart of the agreement is that the US and Turkey will work
together to create an "ISIS-free zone" in Syria along a portion of the
border with Turkey. This was being called a "safe zone" last week,
but that name has apparently been abandoned so as not to provoke
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The term "no-fly zone" has been
abandoned for the same reason.

As we wrote in "26-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'"
, the Kurds in northern Syria are separated into two
large enclaves, one in the east up the border with Iraq, and one in
the west. If the Kurds can unite those two regions, then it can
declare the entire region a Kurdish state, something that Turkey will
not tolerate.

The proposed "ISIS-free zone" is the region separating the two Kurdish
enclaves, and so the objective of the Turks seems to be to create it
actually as an "ISIS-free and Kurdish-free zone." This severely
complicates the US coalition's mission in Syria, since the Kurds are
supposed to be our allies. Pro-Kurdish activists are accusing Turkey
and the US as being in a joint plan to kill Kurds as well as ISIS.

It's worth pointing out that there are no good guys in Syria. Bashar
al-Assad is a genocidal monster who's used "industrial strength"
torture, barrel bombs and Sarin gas on innocent women and children.
The Kurdish PKK is a far left revolutionary terrorist group that has
been bombing and murdering innocent civilians for decades. And of
course ISIS and al-Nusra are bloody jihadists who decapitate innocent
civilians just for fun. There's really no one to root for here.
However this "ISIS-free zone" gets sorted out, all we can really do is
watch as the Syria continues to deteriorate, until we're finally drawn
in and forced to fight someone, whoever we feel is our enemy at the
time. Hurriyet (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Adm. Harry Harris,
Taiwan, White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, ISIS-free zone, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Kurds

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*** 29-Jul-15 World View -- Iran blamed for terrorist bombing in Bahrain

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran blamed for terrorist bombing in Bahrain
• Puerto Rico expected to default on Saturday
• China's government to continue buying stocks to stabilize markets

****
**** Iran blamed for terrorist bombing in Bahrain
****


Comments by Iran's Supreme Leader caused Bahrain to recall its ambassador (AP)

A bomb on Tuesday exploded outside a girls' school in the Shia village
of Sitra, killing two policemen and wounding six. This was the first
bombing in Bahrain in several months, and the worst since March 2014.

Bahrain is governed by Sunni tribal leaders, although the population
is 2/3 Shia. In February 2011, during the chaotic start of the "Arab
Awakening," peaceful Shia protesters in Bahrain were met by extreme
violence, when police smashed into demonstrators with guns, clubs and
teargas. (See "18-Feb-11 News -- Bahrain's government chooses the massacre scenario."
)

Iran has long been accused of interfering in Bahraini affairs, and in
particular of supporting the Shia opposition. According to Bahrain
media, "Early information suggests that the explosives used in today’s
terrorist attack are of the same type that were recently intercepted
coming from Iran."

On Saturday, Bahrain had recalled its ambassador to Iran after Iran's
supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said that the nuclear deal
Tehran agreed with the West would not alter its support for the
governments of Syria and Iraq, nor its backing for "oppressed people"
in Yemen and Bahrain, and the Palestinians. Khamenei's comments
provoked widespread outrage in Bahrain. Reuters and Gulf News and The National (UAE, 7/25)

****
**** Puerto Rico expected to default on Saturday
****

As expected, Puerto Rico is expected to be in default on Saturday,
unable to make a $58 million payment due on Friday to bondholders.

Puerto Rico's governor Alejandro García Padilla announced last month
that the island territory will be unable to pay off its $72 billion in debts,
so Saturday's
bankruptcy will not be a surprise.

Many people have invested in Puerto Rico bonds because they pay 10%
interest (yields) and because under federal law they're "triple-tax
free," meaning that you can earn 10% interest every year and not have
to pay federal, state or municipal tax on the interest you collect.
It's a sweet deal, provided that Puerto Rico doesn't go bankrupt,
because if it does, then you lose most or all of your initial
investment.

A default will hurt a huge number of ordinary investors. 52% of all
U.S. municipal bond funds hold credit tied to Puerto Rico. Even if
individual investors don't individually own PR bonds, they own them
through their 401k's or other investment funds, which have been
boosting returns by purchasing the PR bonds. These funds will all
lose significant principal in a PR default.

The situation is expected to be chaotic and painful, since Puerto Rico
cannot file for bankruptcy (as Detroit did) under U.S. law. CNBC and Prensa Latina

****
**** China's government to continue buying stocks to stabilize markets
****

The Shanghai composite index on Tuesday fell 1.68%, after falling
8.48% on Monday, after massive intervention by the China Securities
Regulatory Commission (CSRC). There were a variety of interventions,
including massively buying shares, preventing some stocks from being
traded, forbidding large companies from selling shares, and forbidding
any Chinese media from using words like "plunge" that could cause
people to panic. The plunge was a sign to many investors that the
Chinese Communist Party is losing control of the stock market.

The CSRC announced that it will continue buying stock shares,
in the hope of keeping the market from crashing.

Many ordinary Chinese investors are complaining that they're "trapped
in the stock market." These means that they can't sell without losing
a lot of money, so they have to hope that government will intervene
sufficiently to push up the market again, to the point where the CAN
sell. This situation highlights the danger: Every time the CSRC
intervenes so massively that they push the market up, many investors
immediately sell, pushing the market down again. Xinhua and
Reuters and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Puerto Rico, Alejandro García Padilla,
China, Shanghai, China Securities Regulatory Commission, CSRC

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*** 30-Jul-15 World View -- Bizarre Mullah Omar death announcement seals fate of Afghan peace talks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Lashkar-e-Jhangvi leader Malik Ishaq killed in gunfight in Pakistan
• Bizarre Mullah Omar death announcement seals fate of Afghan peace talks
• Mullah Omar's impossible conditions for Afghan peace talks

****
**** Lashkar-e-Jhangvi leader Malik Ishaq killed in gunfight in Pakistan
****


The death of Malik Ishaq (Pakistan Today)

Malik Ishaq, the leader of Pakistan's most extreme terror group,
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), responsible for thousands of civilian deaths,
mostly Shia Muslims, was killed on Wednesday in a gunfight with
police.

I've written many times about Pakistan's al-Qaeda linked terror group
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), which is dedicated to the extermination of
all Shias, and particularly the Hazara ethnic group, in the same way
that the Nazis were dedicated to the extermination of all Jews.

According to an LeJ statement issued in 2013:

<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in
the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan
and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We
will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be
destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia
Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after
hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure --
Pakistan." <END QUOTE>

LeJ has conducted numerous horrific terrorist attacks against targets
like Shia mosques during Friday prayers and Shia marketplaces, and
I've reported on a number of them.

LeJ chief Malik Ishaq, was arrested a week ago, along with his two
sons. The police interrogated him, and then took him in a convoy to
aid the police in recovering weapons and explosives. Three water
coolers filled with explosives, detonators, Kalashnikov assault
rifles, 12 pistols and four hand grenades were seized during the raid,
according to police.

As the convoy was returning, it was allegedly attacked by some 12-15
gunmen, and succeeded in freeing Ishaq. In the subsequent shootout,
Ishaq, his two sons, and 11 other militants were killed. There's some
controversy, because the police claim that Ishaq was killed by the
attackers, rather than by the police. There are claims that the
police staged the gunfight in order to kill Ishaq, who might have been
freed by a court, as he has in the past.

Ishaq was also accused of masterminding, from behind bars, the 2009
attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, which wounded seven
players and an assistant coach, and killed eight Pakistanis. (From
2009: "Cricketing world in shock after attack on Sri Lanka team in Pakistan"
)

This attack was extremely humiliating to Pakistan, not only because of
the attack itself, but also because Pakistan was stripped of its right
to co-host the 2011 cricket World Cup, and no international cricket
was played in Pakistan for years. It was only in May and June of this
year that international cricket returned to Pakistan, when the
Zimbabwe team visited for a series of games. Pakistan Today and BBC and Express Tribune (Pakistan)

****
**** Bizarre Mullah Omar death announcement seals fate of Afghan peace talks
****

The death of Mullah Mohammed Omar, who has been the spiritual head of
the Taliban and al-Qaeda since the late 1990s, was confirmed on
Wednesday in a bizarre announcement that said he's been dead for
years. Some reports said he died in 2012, others in 2013; one said he
died of tuberculosis in Karachi, others that he died in Afghanistan
near the Pakistan border.

With American coalition troops set to pull out of Afghanistan at some
unspecified time in the near future, the hope has been that the
Taliban will stop making terrorist attacks and will agree to peace
talks with the Afghan government, so that the pullout won't turn into
another major humiliation, like the pullout from Iraq.

The problem is that there are multiple tribal groups within the
Taliban, including some that had pledged allegiance to the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The hope was that Omar
would serve to unite all the Taliban groups to agree to a peace deal
with the Afghan government in Kabul, but the (announcement of the)
death of Omar now makes that even more impossible. In fact, with
Omar's death kept a secret for 2-3 years, some analysts are saying
word of his death was leaked by a tribal group wanting to torpedo any
peace talks. GEO TV (Pakistan) and CNN
and Reuters

****
**** Mullah Omar's impossible conditions for Afghan peace talks
****

In June 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry announced that "peace
talks" with the Afghan Taliban would begin in Doha, Qatar. As Kerry
was making the announcement, the Taliban themselves were giving a
press conference in Doha, Qatar, announcing the return of the
"Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." This was
the name of the country Afghanistan when the Taliban ruled it, prior
to September 11, 2001. The so-called "peace talks" collapsed the next
day. ( "20-Jun-13 World View -- Afghan peace talks collapse day after they're announced"
)

It's been the same story over and over for the Afghan-Taliban "peace
talks" (and incidentally, also for the Pakistan-Taliban "peace
talks"). The Taliban always express interest in "peace talks,"
setting all sorts of conditions, and continuing with full-scale war
against the Afghan government, and making it clear to everyone that
there will be no peace talks.

Mullah Omar has been the great hope for peace talks -- that he
would bring about unity among all the Taliban tribal groups,
and they would all sign on to a peace deal, so that the
American-led military coalition could withdraw without being
humiliated.

In fact, it was just two weeks ago that an Eid (end-of-Ramadan)
message supposedly from Mullah Omar that contained a reference to
"political endeavors" was interpreted by desperate politicians as
approving the peace process.

According to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani:

<QUOTE>"The whole nation wants peace. During the past 14
years we tried to hold face-to-face talks but could not
succeed. But it has happened now and the second round of talks
will be held within a few weeks."<END QUOTE>

We now know that the message could not have been from Omar.

The first meeting was held, and the Taliban presented their demands
for further talks: The complete withdrawal of foreign troops from
Afghanistan, removing the names of Taliban commanders from a US
Department of State blacklist, and the exchange of prisoners. None of
these conditions can be met by the West. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Deutsche Welle and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lashkar-e Jhangvi, LeJ, Taliban,
Shias, Hazaras, Quetta, Malik Ishaq, cricket, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Afghanistan, Mullah Mohammed Omar, John Kerry, Ashraf Ghani

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*** 31-Jul-15 World View -- 'Swarm' of migrants causing crisis at Eurotunnel from France to Britain

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of migrants in Calais France causing Eurotunnel crisis
• Britain's PM Cameron's 'swarm of migrants' remarks causing outrage
• Number of lone children migrants to Britain soaring

****
**** Thousands of migrants in Calais France causing Eurotunnel crisis
****


Left: Migrants in Calais walk to Eurotunnel over tracks (AP); Right: Migrant hides under truck to Britain (Reuters)

An estimated 5,000 migrants are staying in temporary refugee camps
near Calais, France. Most are from Syria, Somalia, Sudan and Eritrea.
There are smaller groups from Ethiopia, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran
and Afghanistan. There have been 110,000 migrants so far this year
who have crossed the Mediterranean from North Africa to Italy and
Greece.

Starting earlier this week, there have been what officials are calling
an "invasion" by thousands of migrants trying to cross the Eurotunnel
from Calais to Britain each night. According to Jacques Gounon, the
chairman of Groupe Eurotunnel:

<QUOTE>"This isn't a case of a passenger not paying for their
ticket, we are facing systematic and massive invasions, maybe even
organized ones. This is a problem of numbers, it's not a problem
of quality, it's a problem of quantity.

Regardless of the huge investment we have made and are continuing
to make to protect the boarding paths, there's a problem of
quantity (of policing) when you consider the size of the first
trans-Channel operator which is the Channel Tunnel."<END QUOTE>

Groupe Eurotunnel says that it has invested more than $175 million in
physical resources, including fences, cameras and infra-red detectors,
as well as personnel. However, large numbers of migrants have been
walking along railroad tracks to the Eurotunnel. Others wait until a
truck (lorry) going to Britain stops for any reason, and then hides
under the trailer. These maneuvers are extremely dangerous, and there
have been several deaths this week.

Officials have been building fences to prevent migrants from reaching
the Eurotunnel tracks, but migrants cut holes through the tunnels as
soon as they're built or repaired. A chain saw can be purchased from
a local hardware store for less than $50.

According to the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative for
International Migration Peter Sutherland:

<QUOTE>"Anybody who thinks that by erecting borders and
fences in some way a particular state can be protected from
alleged ‘floods’ – which are anything but floods of migrants – is
living in cloud cuckoo land."<END QUOTE>

Irish Independent and Telegraph (London) and Express (London) and Guardian (London)

****
**** Britain's PM Cameron's 'swarm of migrants' remarks causing outrage
****

There is widespread outrage over remarks by Britain's prime minister
David Cameron:

<QUOTE>"We have to deal with the problem at source and that
is stopping so many people from travelling across the
Mediterranean in search of a better life. That means trying to
stabilize the countries from which they come, it also means
breaking the link between travelling and getting the right to stay
in Europe.

This is very testing, I accept that, because you have got a swarm
of people coming across the Mediterranean seeking a better life,
wanting to come to Britain because Britain has got jobs, it’s got
a growing economy, it’s an incredible place to live. But we need
to protect our borders by working hand in glove with our
neighbors, the French, and that is exactly what we are
doing."<END QUOTE>

The comments drew widespread criticism. The Refugee Council said it
was "awful, dehumanizing language from a world leader."

Acting opposition Labor leader Harriet Harman said:

<QUOTE>"He should remember he is talking about people, not
insects.

I think it's a very worrying turn that he appears to be wanting to
be divisive and set people against, whip people up, against the
migrants in Calais when what he should have been doing, and should
have been doing months ago and was warned to be doing, is to get
the situation sorted out with the French. ...

I don't think there should be any question of us sending in our
army. The French themselves have got troops as well as a large
police force."<END QUOTE>

Another Labor politician called it "nothing short of disgraceful."
Guardian (London) and AFP and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Number of lone children migrants to Britain soaring
****

Kent, England, is facing financial problems for having to care for
hundreds of lone children migrants seeking asylum. Kent is the
British endpoint of the Eurotunnel opposite Calais, and so Kent ends
up with the responsibility of taking care of the children.

The number of lone migrants under age 18 has doubled in the past three
months has doubled to 605. The result is that Kent is struggling to
find the additional £5.5 million ($8.6 million) needed to care for
them. Kent's costs are reimbursed by London at £112 a day last year
but that has fallen to £91 per child. In addition, each child
receives £10 a week "pocket money." Kent Online and Belfast Telegraph


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Calais, France, Kent, England, Britain,
David Cameron, Jacques Gounon, Groupe Eurotunnel,
Peter Sutherland, Harriet Harman

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*** 1-Aug-15 World View -- Tensions with Palestinians soar after brutal Israeli settler 'price tag' attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas promises revenge for Palestinian baby burned to death
• High tensions are reminiscent of prelude to last year's Gaza war
• Five 'Hilltop Youth' extremists charged with 'price tag' Church arson
• Palestinian teen shot and killed by Israeli army near Gaza border fence

****
**** Hamas promises revenge for Palestinian baby burned to death
****


Ali Dawabsheh, the baby killed in the fire, and the damaged home (Ynet)

An 18-month-old Palestinian boy was killed early Friday in a
night-time arson attack in the West Bank. The attackers used Molotov
cocktails to set two homes on fire in the West Bank, and wrote
graffiti saying "Revenge" in Hebrew on the walls. The parents of the
baby and his 4-year-old brother suffered burns and had to be
hospitalized.

The attack is thought to be a "price tag" attack by violent
Jewish settlers.

I've described price tag attacks several times in the past few years.
The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by far-right Israeli
settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians or IDF
soldiers in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate
illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by
Palestinians. The attacks have usually been against mosques or other
property, and sometimes even Christian property, but they've
occasionally crossed the line into violence against Palestinians.

This attack on an innocent Palestinian family, burning a baby alive,
is a major escalation in the price tag attacks, and the worst such
attack since a Palestinian teen was murdered by Israeli settlers in
July of last year.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a "clear
terrorist attack":

<QUOTE>"I am shocked by this horrible criminal act. This is a
clear terrorist attack. Israel takes a tough stance against
terrorism regardless who the perpetrators are. I have instructed
the security forces to use all means at our disposal to capture
the killers and bring them to justice as soon as possible. Israel
is united in its opposition to such terrible and heinous acts. On
behalf of the citizens of Israel, I would like to commiserate with
the family of Ali Dawwabshe and wish a speedy recovery to the
injured family members."<END QUOTE>

However, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas called the
attack "a crime against humanity," and Hamas has called for an
"exceptional" revenge attack against Israelis. YNet and
Palestinian News Network and Jewish Press

****
**** High tensions are reminiscent of prelude to last year's Gaza war
****

On June 10 of last year, three Israeli teens were abducted and later
found to be killed. Israeli online campaigns are calling for revenge
against the Arabs. After the three Israeli teens were kidnapped, and
before their dead bodies were discovered, one web site called for the
killing of one Arab an hour until the teens were released.

A Jerusalem Post editorial said that Israelis are fed up with dead
Jews, though it doesn't suggest how the problem can be remedied:

<QUOTE>"But something changed with the murder of these three
innocent teens. It was not just the senselessness of the act;
three defenseless teen boys killed for no reason other than that
they were Jewish, for no other purpose but to indulge Palestinian
hate. Rather, it was a feeling that this had happened one too many
times. That there was a critical mass of dead Jews that had now
been reached, beyond which the Israeli public and the world Jewish
community is not prepared to mourn anymore."<END QUOTE>

Their dead bodies were found on June 30 of last year. Israel's prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the next day that the three were
"kidnapped and murdered in cold blood by animals" and promised: "Hamas
will pay."

On July 2, a 15-year-old Palestinian teen named Abu Khdeir was
abducted, burnt and killed. The autopsy found soot in his respiratory
canal, indicating that he was burnt alive. It's thought that the
lynching of Khdeir was in revenge for the deaths of the three Israeli
teens, and may have been triggered by Netanyahu's threat.

The lynching triggered massive riots and demonstrations by
Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and may also have
triggered the barrage of rocket attacks from Gaza. Israeli officials
moved quickly to investigate and find the murders of Khdeir in the
hope of cooling the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. Six
young Jewish extremists were arrested for the murder four days later,
which quieted the rioting.

The murderers of the three Israeli teens were believed to be hiding
out in the West Bank, but the Palestinian Authority did nothing to
bring them to justice. The murderers were never found.

Violence between Israelis and Palestinians began to increase after
these incidents. Both the Israeli and Palestinian populations wanted
revenge. There was street violence in Jerusalem, and a barrage of
rockets from Gaza into Israel. Within a couple of days, Israeli
troops were massing on the Gaza border, and Israeli warplanes were
targeting "Hamas terror sites" in the Gaza Strip. After a few more
days, Israel and Gaza were at full-scale war.

In the aftermath, Hamas said that it was only trying to foment an
"intifada," not a war. ( "22-Aug-14 World View -- Hamas says it didn't intend to start the Gaza War"
)

Things today are different for Hamas and the Arab world. The Gaza War
split the Arab world into supporters of Hamas and de facto
supporters of Israel. There was a conflict in Syria, but the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was only
beginning to be felt.

Today, the Arab world is trying to unify. The Iran nuclear agreement
has already unified much of the Sunni Arab world against Iran.
There's now a war in Yemen that the Sunni Arabs and Iranians are
fighting by proxy. ISIS has become much more powerful today than it
was a year ago, and the Syria/Iraq wars are growing in intensity. As
we've written several times recently, the Arab world is
disintegrating into war.

So it's quite possible that Hamas does not want another war with
Israel at this time. On the other hand, the burning alive of an
18-month-old baby by Israeli extremists is probably going to cause
riots and revenge attacks. And those may spiral into another war
whether either side wants it or not. Jerusalem Post (5-July-2014)

****
**** Five 'Hilltop Youth' extremists charged with 'price tag' Church arson
****

Police arrested on Wednesday five "Hilltop Youth" activists who
allegedly were behind the June 18 arson at the Church of the
Multiplication of the Loaves and Fishes at Tabgha on the shores of the
Kinneret (Sea of Galilee).

The Hilltop Youth are third generation terrorist Israeli settlers who
are living in Jewish settlements in the West Bank hilltops. It's
believed that the arson attack on the Church was a "Price Tag" attack.

The blog of the head of the group on the “Jewish Voice” site on May 20
of this year sought to encourage attacks on Christian religious sites
and stated:

<QUOTE>"Only those who deny idolatry and fight against
Christianity and aspire to remove the churches from the Holy Land
– they are called Jews."<END QUOTE>

According to the Israeli police:

<QUOTE>"This group operates in the context of an ideological
infrastructure composed of a limited number of hilltop youth
activists. This infrastructure has operated since 2013 and holds
to an extremist ideology that aspires to change the regime and
bring about the redemption via various stages of action.

The infrastructure sought to hit ‘weak points’ in the State of
Israel in order to arouse dialogue and win adherents and also
tried (unsuccessfully) to disrupt the May 2014 visit of Pope
Francis."<END QUOTE>

It had been hoped that the arrest would strike a fatal blow to the
"hilltop youth" terrorist movement, but that was before Friday's price
tag attack that killed the 18-month-old Palestinian boy. Jewish Press and Jewish Telegraphic Agency

****
**** Palestinian teen shot and killed by Israeli army near Gaza border fence
****

Israeli soldiers shot dead a Palestinian teenager near the border
fence in the northern Gaza Strip on Friday. An Israeli spokesman said
that several suspects approached the fence, and did not heed calls by
soldiers to stop. Israel enforces a 300-meter-(1,000-foot)-deep,
security no-go zone on the Gaza side of the fence. The frontier has
been largely quiet since a 2014 war between Israel and Palestinian
militant groups in which more than 2,100 Palestinians and 73 Israelis
were killed. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, West Bank, Price tag, Hamas, Israel,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Abu Khdeir, Hilltop Youth, Jewish Voice, Gaza,
Church of the Multiplication of the Loaves and Fishes

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*** 2-Aug-15 World View -- Taiwan student commits suicide over 'fine-tuning' textbook controversy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Afghan Taliban in crisis over successor to Mullah Omar
• Taiwan student commits suicide over 'fine-tuning' textbook controversy

****
**** Afghan Taliban in crisis over successor to Mullah Omar
****


Funeral for Mohammad Omar at a mosque in Peshawar, Pakistan, on Friday (AP)

The announcement that Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar died
two years ago has resulted in tensions among various tribal factions
over the selection of a successor. ( "30-Jul-15 World View -- Bizarre Mullah Omar death announcement seals fate of Afghan peace talks"
)

The Taliban chose Omar's second in command, Mullah Akhtar Mansour.
This weekend, they were supposed to take part in peace talks with the
Afghan government and the Haqqani network about ending the violence in
Afghanistan.

Those peace talks have been postponed, and an audio message delivered
by Mansour on Saturday seems to indicate that they will be postponed
indefinitely (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"We won't have to ask friends to be tolerant, and
prevent divisions. Rest assured, there'll be no problems. If we
face any problems in the future, we'll seek guidance from
religious scholars, and we'll act accordingly.

Friends ask me if I've prepared for this role. I've told them that
the responsibility I was given after the death of Mullah Omar is
like carrying a mountain on your shoulders. But I accepted it,
because it is a time of service, not a time of kingship.

Our struggle will continue until the Islamic system in the country
is established. The enemy's propaganda about peace process and
dialog -- all this is too much. They have used money, the media,
false religious scholars and other means to weaken the jihad, and
shatter our unity. We will ignore all this. We'll continue this
jihad until an Islamic system is established in the
country."<END QUOTE>

The speech was apparently made on Thursday to a group of Mansour's
supporters.

Tribal leaders were not consulted before the secretive appointment of
Mansour, and there are enormous tensions. The Afghan Taliban is
thought to be at an existential crisis because of tribal divisions,
and because some of the more radical Taliban groups may defect from
Mansour and join the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). BBC and Gulf News

****
**** Taiwan student commits suicide over 'fine-tuning' textbook controversy
****

Dai Lin, a high school student who had campaigned against
"fine-tuning" changes being made to Taiwan's high school textbooks and
curriculum, was found dead in his room lying in bed. Since he was
lying next to a pan of lighted charcoal, which generates carbon
monoxide and so is one of the top methods of suicide in Asia, it's
believed that Lin took his life intentionally, in order to call
attention to his anti-curriculum changes campaign.

Some of the proposed curriculum changes are minor corrections, but
others of them appear to change history in order to favor making
Taiwan part of China, as opposed to Taiwan being a fully independent
nation.

One of the most controversial changes is that references to "China"
are changed to "mainland China". According to activists, "China" and
"Taiwan" are separate entities, while "mainland China" implies that
Taiwan is part of China.

Other changes go deep into Taiwan's history. A proposed change from
the "Qing Dynasty" to the "Qing Court in the Cheng Family Dynasty"
implies that during this historical period, China had territorial
ownership of Taiwan, which activists say is untrue.

These seemingly minor textual changes cut deeply into the major
political fault line of Taiwan -- whether it will be recognized as an
independent nation separate from China, or whether it will merely be
another province of China.

The changes are favored by the current ruling nationalist party KMT
(Kuomintang), which is the modern day incarnation of Chiang Kai-shek's
original nationalist party of soldiers that fought against Mao
Zedong's Communist Revolution and lost, and fled to Hong Kong, then a
British colony, and from there to Formosa (Taiwan) in 1949, at the
conclusion of the civil war. The KMT position has always been that
Taiwan would reunite with China.

A strong pro-independence movement, especially among young people,
began with the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, which people
in Taiwan viewed with horror. This proved to be a catalyst in turning
many Taiwanese people against Beijing, bringing about the creation of
the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which beat the KMT and won
national elections in 2000.

The KMT regained power after a DPP corruption scandal in 2006. But in
November of last year, KMT suffered disastrous losses in local
elections across Taiwan, and DPP may win the next presidential
election, to be held on January 16. ( "30-Nov-14 World View -- Taiwan voters choose independence from China"
)

The proposed curriculum changes have generated student protests in
cities across Taiwan. Last week, protesters in the capital city
Taipei broke into the offices of the Ministry of Education, which is
sponsoring the curriculum changes. Many protesters, including Dai
Lin, were arrested.

In his final Facebook post, Lin wrote:

<QUOTE>"Wish me happy birthday. 8 5 12 16. I have only one
wish: that the Minister [of Education] withdraw the curriculum
guidelines."<END QUOTE>

Lin's friends later "decoded" the numbers 8-5-12-16 as corresponding
to the letters for "h-e-l-p" in the English alphabet.

Lin's suicide will energize the anti-curriculum change activists,
but it seems clear that the adjustments will be in force in
the fall semester, while KMT is still in power.

During the years 2000-2006 when DPP was last in power, there were
repeated threats of invasions by Beijing officials. In fact, in 2005
China passed a new law to provide legal justification for a Chinese
invasion of Taiwan if there's any move at all towards independence
from China. ( "China's 'Anti-Secession' law infuriates Taiwan"
)

Things have been a lot more peaceful since KMT came to power in 2006.
But if DPP comes to power again in January, then we can expect
additional invasion threats from China, as well as increased
determination by young people in Taiwan to be fully independent.
Taipei Times and National Institutes of Health and China Policy Institute Blog - UK


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar,
Mullah Akhtar Mansour, Haqqini Network,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Taiwan, Dai Lin, China, Qing Dynasty, Cheng Family Dynasty,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Chiang Kai-shek,
Tiananmen Square massacre

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*** 3-Aug-15 World View -- Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Big losses expected Monday when Greece's stock market reopens
• Puerto Rico to default on Tuesday
• Venezuela's collapsing economy receives $5 billion from China
• Venezuela in border dispute with Guyana
• Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK

****
**** Big losses expected Monday when Greece's stock market reopens
****


An old man carrying newspapers stands in front of a row of Greek flags in Athens (Kathimerini)

The Athens stock market will open again on Monday, and analysts are
expecting pent-up selling pressure to knock 20% or more off the Athens
general index. According to one analyst, "The possibility of seeing
even a single share rise in [Monday's] session is almost zero."

Also on Monday, new negotiations are to begin between Greece and the
lending institutions over such things as fiscal adjustment,
privatizations, bank recapitalization and structural reform, including
pension overhauls. The objective is to reach agreement by August 11,
when a new Eurogroup summit can give its approval. Greece has to
secure a fresh bailout payment by August 20, when it has to make a
payment to the European Central Bank, or again face default. Reuters and Kathimerini

****
**** Puerto Rico to default on Tuesday
****

As expected, Puerto Rico missed a $58 million bond payment on
Saturday, but because the deadline was Saturday, Puerto Rico has
until the end of Tuesday to make the missed payment. However,
governor Alejandro García Padilla told journalists in San Juan on
Friday, "We don’t have the money."

Puerto Rico faces $635 million in debt-service payments this month,
and has to make $5.4 billion in bond payments through next summer,
leaving little for services such as trash pickup, road maintenance,
education and other government functions. It's expected that the
default will cause an extremely chaotic international crisis.
International Business Times

****
**** Venezuela's collapsing economy receives $5 billion from China
****

With inflation and shortages increasing in Venezuela, shoppers are
breaking into supermarkets to see scarce consumer staples including
milk, rice and flour. In one such incident on Friday in the
southeastern city of Ciudad Guayana, one person was killed in the
mêlée, and dozens were arrested.

As usual, president Nicolás Maduro blamed it on the United States,
particularly on U.S. General John Kelly, Marine Corps commander of the
Southern Command, who predicted in February that there would be a
"social implosion" in Venezuela in July. According to Maduro:

<QUOTE>"You all know that a military general of the United
States doesn't predict. He orders and the battered Venezuelan
right-wing executes."<END QUOTE>

Venezuela's economy is in a state of rapidly increasingly
hyperinflation, with the currency losing 32% of its value in the
black market in the last month alone. The inflation rate is well into
the triple digits, though precise figures have not been published.
Businesses are quickly switching over the dollar currency as a result.

Venezuela's economy has been collapsing because of huge socialist
spending programs begun by Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chávez, and
because the price of oil has plunged to below $50 per barrel. Oil is
the main export of Venezuela and provides most of the country's
foreign currency.

However, on Friday Venezuela announced that it has received $5 billion
in funding from China, according to a long-standing agreement. China
is Venezuela's primary financier and has lent the nation more than $46
billion to be repaid in oil, after accords signed with late president
Hugo Chávez in 2007. Reuters and Bloomberg (16-Jul) and Latin American Herald Tribune and Reuters

****
**** Venezuela in border dispute with Guyana
****

Venezuela's economic collapse has affected the country's relations
with their neighbor Guyana. An 1897 treaty between Venezuela and
Guyana (then British Guiana), set the borders between the two
countries, but Venezuela wants to repudiate the treaty, now that
ExxonMobil estimates that it has found 700 million barrels of crude
oil in Guyana's waters. Jamaica Observer

****
**** Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK
****

Two weeks ago, Turkey was determined to avoid war. Turkey's
announcement that it will make its airbases available to warplanes
fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh),
and its decision to join the US-led coalition fighting ISIS, were
greeted in the West as a sign of new hope.

But now Turkey is mainly embroiled in a new war with the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK), both in northern Iraq and in southeast Turkey.
While the West is bombing ISIS targets, Turkey is bombing PKK targets.

Turkey and the separatist terror group PKK fought an off and on civil
war for almost four decades, but finally agreed to a ceasefire in
2012. On July 20, there was a massive terrorist attack in the town of Suruç,
and on July 23,
Turkey declared war on PKK.

Turkey has launched airstrikes on PKK camps in northern Iraq for the
first time since 2012. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in
northern Iraq, which governs the civilian Kurdish population in
northern Iraq, and has been a U.S. ally in fighting against ISIS, is
complaining that the airstrikes are killing civilians.

Turkey did an investigation, and said that the airstrikes targeted PKK
bunkers, and that therefore there were no civilians killed.

The KRG has responded by asking the PKK to "withdraw its fighters from
the Kurdish region so to ensure the civilians of Kurdistan don't
become victim of that fighting and conflict."

For its part, the PKK on Sunday sent a suicide bomber in an
explosive-laden tractor to an army outpost in southeastern Turkey.
Two soldiers were killed, along with the suicide bomber.

The net result of all this is that the Turkish people are now facing
the renewal of a conflict that they thought and hoped was over for
good. The other result is that the Turks and the US are now fighting
two completely different enemies in the same region. This situation
can be spun, of course, but it looks like a total mess to me.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts a
full-scale sectarian war in the Mideast, with Iran an ally of the West
fighting the Sunni Arabs. Furthermore, there's no jihadist war
against the West, at least not yet, since the number of Christians
killed by Muslims is minuscule compared to the number of Muslims
killed by Muslims, especially in the Mideast. Events are moving very
rapidly, changing on almost a daily basis. We don't know what's going
to happen next week, but Generational Dynamics tells us what the
destination is, and the destination is not good. Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Zaman and Hurriyet


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Athens stock market, Eurogroup,
Puerto Rico, Alejandro García Padilla,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez, John Kelly, China,
Guyana, British Guiana, ExxonMobil, Iraq, Syria, Turkey,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 4-Aug-15 World View -- US in major weapons sale to Saudis to compensate for Iran nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia isolates itself further by vetoing MH17 investigation
• US in major weapons sale to Saudis to compensate for Iran nuclear deal

****
**** Russia isolates itself further by vetoing MH17 investigation
****


Screen grab of Buk missile system in Ukraine in July of last year. (Ukraine Security Service)

Last week, Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution,
proposed by Malaysia, to authorize an impartial investigation into the
shooting down of a passenger airliner on July 17 of last year. It was
Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, carrying 280 passengers and 15 crew
members, when it crashed in east Ukraine near the border with Russia,
killing everyone on board. All others voted in favor of the
resolution, except for abstentions from Russia's three "allies":
China, Venezuela and Angola.

Immediately after the MH17 airliner was shot down last year, Igor
Strelkov, the commander of the Russian invasion forces in east
Ukraine, tweeted the following to brag about the kill:

<QUOTE>"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city
Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our
sky."<END QUOTE>

Later, when Strelkov learned that he had shot down a passenger plane,
not a military plane, the tweet was taken down, but by then it was too
late. Strelkov had already admitted about shooting down the plane --
actually bragged about it. Later evidence showed that the Russians
had shot down the passenger airliner with a Russian Buk surface-to-air
missile launched from the area controlled by the Russians in east
Ukraine.

There followed a blast of Russian propaganda, attempting to confuse
the issue and pin the blame elsewhere. The claims by Russia
controlled media included:

• The airplane was not shot down at all, but fell out of the sky
  by itself;
• A bomb exploded aboard the airplane;
• The airplane was hit by a Ukrainian missile fired from the
  ground;
• A Ukrainian air force fighter pursued and then attacked the
  plane;
• The U.S. shot down the plane in order to damage Russia's
  reputation;
• The U.S. shot down the plane in order to embarrass Putin;
• No living people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot
  from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting
  corpses."

That was followed by Putin's army of paid Russian trolls,
whose job was to harass people like me who
were describing what was really going on. I was targeted by no less
than three of the trolls on different web sites in one week, and I've
had frequent attacks by Russian trolls since then.

So Russia's veto of a resolution to set up an international tribunal
to investigate the MH17 disaster is consistent with Russia's policies
for the last year.

However, this time Russia received an additional humiliation: Russia's
so-called ally China did not join Russia in vetoing the resolution;
instead, China abstained, as did Russia's other "allies," Venezuela
and Angola.

The fact that even Russia's allies did not join in voting against the
resolution was a major defeat for Russian diplomacy, and indicates
that even these countries refused to be associated with covering up as
horrendous a crime as shooting down an airliner filled with
passengers.

Russia is becoming increasingly isolated in the international
community because its economy is cratering, mainly because of the
collapse in oil prices. Russia Today and Jamestown

****
**** US in major weapons sale to Saudis to compensate for Iran nuclear deal
****

US Secretary of State John Kerry was in Doha, Qatar, on Monday,
visiting the foreign ministers of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC). The GCC members are extremely anxious over the nuclear
deal with Iran. As I wrote last month in "19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal"
, the Iran nuclear deal is forcing yet another
realignment in the Arab world, as it deteriorates into war.

Kerry on Monday told the GCC ministers that the United States had
"agreed to expedite certain arms sales that are needed and that have
taken too long in the past."

The arms sales that Kerry referred to were announced earlier this
week. A $5.4 billion weapons deal involves the sale of PAC-3 Missiles
as part of the upgrade of the Royal Saudi Air Defense Force. An
additional $500 million sale includes ammunition, tracers, artillery
shells and mines. Some of these weapons will resupply Saudi's
military in Yemen, where the Saudis are fighting a proxy war with
Iran.

And so, with the Mideast deteriorating into war, the Iranians will
receive billions in sanction relief to purchase weapons, while the
Saudis are going to receive US weapons. There is now apparently a
major arms race going on between the Arabs and Iran.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts a
full-scale sectarian war in the Mideast, with Iran an ally of the West
fighting the Sunni Arabs. AFP and Middle East Eye and Reuters and Sputnik News (Moscow)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Igor Strelkov,
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, MH17, Buk missile,
China, Venezuela, Angola, John Kerry, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Yemen

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Out there in the dross that one finds in many corners of the internet there is Russian propaganda (also retweeted / regurgitated by Kremlin bootlickers) that the airliner was shot down because it was being used as a sort of massive "human shield" to allow some fighters (alternately Ukrainian or NATO ones depending on the version of the spew) flying in formation with the airliner to sneak in. Sounds insane but you know many unsuspecting dupes suck this shit right up.