Apparently it was just a warehouse loaded with hundreds of tons ofOriginally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84
dangerous industrial chemicals, including sodium cyanide, which gives
off fatal gases when mixed with water.
Thunderstorms are forecast for Tianjin on Wednesday.
18-Aug-15 World View -- Report: Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
*** 18-Aug-15 World View -- Report: Comprehensive Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thunderstorms in Tianjin China may release hydrogen cyanide
- Report: Comprehensive Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
- Perpetrator unknown for bombing in downtown Bangkok Thailand
****
**** Thunderstorms in Tianjin China may release hydrogen cyanide
****
Thunderstorms are forecast on Wednesday in Tianjin China (Weather Channel)
Last week's disastrous explosions in Tianjin, China, occurred in a
warehouse containing toxic industrial chemicals including hundreds of
tons of sodium cyanide, which emits deadly hydrogen cyanide when mixed
with water, and calcium carbide, which explodes on contact with water.
Wednesday's weather forecast calls for thunderstorms, followed by five
more days of rain. Want China Times and Weather Channel
****
**** Report: Comprehensive Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
****
Details are beginning to emerge of an imminent agreement, first
reported last week, mediated by former British prime minister Tony
Blair, between Hamas and Israel. According to reports, the agreement
has been endorsed by Hamas's Shura Council, the movement's highest
deliberative body, and Hamas's leader Khaled Mashaal. Israel's
government is not commenting.
The terms of the reported deal are:
- Gaza will be allowed to import merchandise through a floating
port located 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) off the coast."- An intermediary port will be established in Cyprus, where all
Gaza-bound merchandise will be scrutinized by NATO
representatives.- Hamas will agree to stop launching rockets into Israel and digging
subterranean attack tunnels underneath the border for a period of at
least eight years.- Israel has will allow thousands of Gazan day laborers to enter
Israel through the Erez crossing.
The Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO), which governs the West Bank,
is opposed to the deal because it excludes the PA, and does
take into account the needs of the West Bank. A PA press
statement asks:
<QUOTE>"Why has the land corridor with the West Bank, known
as the safe passage, not been proposed before anything else,
given that the PLO delegation raised the issue forcefully? Is Gaza
a humanitarian issue [only] or is it part of the Palestinian
homeland?"<END QUOTE>
The deal was negotiated with Qatar and Turkey. Concerns have also
been raised that Egypt did not participate. Times of Israel and Jewish Telegraphic Agency
****
**** Perpetrator unknown for bombing in downtown Bangkok Thailand
****
Thailand is in shock over the bomb explosion in Bangkok on Monday.
The pipe bomb was planted in the busiest part of the shopping
district, near the Erawan Shrine, a Hindu shrine that's also a big
tourist attraction. There were 19 people killed, mostly Asian
tourists.
No one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, and analysts are
suggesting several possibility:
- For over a decade, there's been a Malay Muslim separatist
movement in southern Thailand, on the border with Malaysia, far away
from Bangkok. However, that group has never been active outside of a
small region in southern Thailand.- In the last few years, there have been several spurts of deadly
violence between the minority light-skinned "yellow shirt" élite,
mostly of Chinese descent, known as Thai-Chinese, versus the much
larger dark-skinned "red shirt" population of mostly indigenous ethnic
Thais, known as Thai-Thais. The former prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra and his sister, the former prime minister Yingluck
Shinawatra, are both extremely popular with the red shirts, but both
were forced out of office by the élite white shirts, backed by the
army. So it's possible that someone from the red shirts planted the
bomb, as a protest against the white shirts.- On the other hand, it's possible that someone from the white
shirts or from the army planted the bomb, as a different protest
against some government policy.- Last month, Thailand forcibly returned to China 109 Uighurs
who had left China to travel to Turkey. China had demanded their
return, and Thai complied, infuriating the Uighur community.
It's possible that a Uighur protester planted the bomb.
This attack was large enough to shock all of Thailand, but it's not
the first attack. Two pipe bombs exploded outside a luxury shopping
mall in the same area in February, but caused little damage. Bangkok Post and BBC and Bangkok Post (4-Aug)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Tianjin, hydrogen cyanide,
Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Khaled Mashaal, Cyprus,
Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt,
Thailand, Bangkok, Erawan Shrine, Malay Muslims,
yellow shirts, red shirts,
Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, China, Uighurs
Permanent web link to this article
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Thailand is a key waypoint along the SCO's "March to Malacca (and beyond)."*** 18-Aug-15 World View -- Report: Comprehensive Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thunderstorms in Tianjin China may release hydrogen cyanide
- Report: Comprehensive Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
- Perpetrator unknown for bombing in downtown Bangkok Thailand
****
**** Thunderstorms in Tianjin China may release hydrogen cyanide
****
Thunderstorms are forecast on Wednesday in Tianjin China (Weather Channel)
Last week's disastrous explosions in Tianjin, China, occurred in a
warehouse containing toxic industrial chemicals including hundreds of
tons of sodium cyanide, which emits deadly hydrogen cyanide when mixed
with water, and calcium carbide, which explodes on contact with water.
Wednesday's weather forecast calls for thunderstorms, followed by five
more days of rain. Want China Times and Weather Channel
****
**** Report: Comprehensive Hamas - Israel peace agreement is 'imminent'
****
Details are beginning to emerge of an imminent agreement, first
reported last week, mediated by former British prime minister Tony
Blair, between Hamas and Israel. According to reports, the agreement
has been endorsed by Hamas's Shura Council, the movement's highest
deliberative body, and Hamas's leader Khaled Mashaal. Israel's
government is not commenting.
The terms of the reported deal are:
- Gaza will be allowed to import merchandise through a floating
port located 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) off the coast."- An intermediary port will be established in Cyprus, where all
Gaza-bound merchandise will be scrutinized by NATO
representatives.- Hamas will agree to stop launching rockets into Israel and digging
subterranean attack tunnels underneath the border for a period of at
least eight years.- Israel has will allow thousands of Gazan day laborers to enter
Israel through the Erez crossing.
The Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO), which governs the West Bank,
is opposed to the deal because it excludes the PA, and does
take into account the needs of the West Bank. A PA press
statement asks:
<QUOTE>"Why has the land corridor with the West Bank, known
as the safe passage, not been proposed before anything else,
given that the PLO delegation raised the issue forcefully? Is Gaza
a humanitarian issue [only] or is it part of the Palestinian
homeland?"<END QUOTE>
The deal was negotiated with Qatar and Turkey. Concerns have also
been raised that Egypt did not participate. Times of Israel and Jewish Telegraphic Agency
****
**** Perpetrator unknown for bombing in downtown Bangkok Thailand
****
Thailand is in shock over the bomb explosion in Bangkok on Monday.
The pipe bomb was planted in the busiest part of the shopping
district, near the Erawan Shrine, a Hindu shrine that's also a big
tourist attraction. There were 19 people killed, mostly Asian
tourists.
No one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, and analysts are
suggesting several possibility:
- For over a decade, there's been a Malay Muslim separatist
movement in southern Thailand, on the border with Malaysia, far away
from Bangkok. However, that group has never been active outside of a
small region in southern Thailand.- In the last few years, there have been several spurts of deadly
violence between the minority light-skinned "yellow shirt" élite,
mostly of Chinese descent, known as Thai-Chinese, versus the much
larger dark-skinned "red shirt" population of mostly indigenous ethnic
Thais, known as Thai-Thais. The former prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra and his sister, the former prime minister Yingluck
Shinawatra, are both extremely popular with the red shirts, but both
were forced out of office by the élite white shirts, backed by the
army. So it's possible that someone from the red shirts planted the
bomb, as a protest against the white shirts.- On the other hand, it's possible that someone from the white
shirts or from the army planted the bomb, as a different protest
against some government policy.- Last month, Thailand forcibly returned to China 109 Uighurs
who had left China to travel to Turkey. China had demanded their
return, and Thai complied, infuriating the Uighur community.
It's possible that a Uighur protester planted the bomb.
This attack was large enough to shock all of Thailand, but it's not
the first attack. Two pipe bombs exploded outside a luxury shopping
mall in the same area in February, but caused little damage. Bangkok Post and BBC and Bangkok Post (4-Aug)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Tianjin, hydrogen cyanide,
Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Khaled Mashaal, Cyprus,
Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt,
Thailand, Bangkok, Erawan Shrine, Malay Muslims,
yellow shirts, red shirts,
Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, China, Uighurs
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
The place is rife with both SVR (nee KGB) and Beijing's equivalents. There are a plethora of cover operations already in place, given the large populations of existing Russian and Chinese expats. It's the sort of place where it would be easy to recruit someone to shoot an RPG or plant a device. It's not even really recruiting. It's facilitating someone who already has such a deed in mind. Of course the SCO operatives I mentioned specialize in such dirty deeds.
I have done an extensive review of video evidence. The prime suspect is a Caucasian with slightly wavy, tousled brown hair. He is of short stature. My "ethnometer" says he is of Eastern European or Northwest Asian extraction. Possibly Slavic, Chechen, Turkish, etc. The image in question also presents clothing and shoes said to be uncommon in Thailand. The suspect was seen carrying a large rucksack or duffel bag (is this starting to seem familiar?). The IED in question was thought to be an electronically triggered device consisting of high explosive stuffed into a metal enclosure. In the latter portion of the video the suspect is no longer carrying the bag and is moving out of the area.
Last edited by XYMOX_4AD_84; 08-18-2015 at 10:51 AM.
The CIA should hire you.
Several years ago I was on a flight from Thailand to Russia's Far East. It was filled with Russians returning to Russia from their home away from home, Pattaya. There are also quite a few in BKK itself. Of course, a key feature of such enclaves is the strong presence of the Red Mafiya. In certain circles, it is said that if one wanted to hire a hit man in Muang Thai, one would recruit a Chechen expat. Specifically, they are known to be experts in lethal explosives. This is a rather interesting coincidence. Again, not to say for sure the man pictured in the security footage is Chechen. But he does have features that make him at least likely to be one or another "Asiatic" group from Greater Russia / the Former USSR / Central Asia. It's just a bit wild to see that footage, in light of what I know to be true vis a vis Russians / former Soviet peoples, in that part of the world.
19-Aug-15 World View -- A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant
*** 19-Aug-15 World View -- A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point
- Surging numbers of migrants on EU borders
- Chinese fear thunderstorms will bring new explosions and death in Tianjin
****
**** A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point
****
Migrants in Gevgelija Macedonia railway station desperately try to get onto train to Serbia (EPA)
The railway station in Gevgelija Macedonia has become the latest choke
point for waves of Middle East migrants escaping violence in Syria,
Iraq and Afghanistan, and hoping to establish residence in Europe.
The migrants travel from Turkey through Greece to the Gevgelija train
station, then take the train to Belgrade, Serbia, and move on to the
border with Hungary.
Macedonia and Serbia are NOT part of the European Union's "Schengen
zone," which permits free travel across borders. However,
Hungary IS a Schengen country. So if a migrant can reach Hungary,
then he can freely travel to any other Schengen country, such as
Germany or France. However, the UK is NOT a Schengen country, so he
cannot freely travel there.
As we reported two weeks ago,
Hungary is speeding up construction of a 109 mile fence along
Hungary's border with Serbia, to prevent exactly the kind of migrant
traffic that's occurring in Gevgelija. Some 120,000 migrants have
crossed from Serbia into Hungary this year alone, and so the
government is using prisoners and unemployed people to build the fence
as quickly as possible.
Migrants from Syria and Afghanistan travel to Turkey, through Istanbul to Greece, through Greece to Macedonia, where they take the train to Belgrade Serbia, and then walk or hitchhike 100 miles to Hungary's border.
Several weeks ago, there were about 1,000 migrants making this trip
each day. But ever since Hungary announced the building of the border
fence, the number has doubled to 2,000 per day. Now Hungary is
planning to send thousands of police officers to the border
with Serbia to prevent migrants from entering Hungary.
This isn't the only way to the Schengen countries, of course.
Hundreds of thousands of migrants travel to Libya, and risk death
crossing the Mediterranean, in the hope of being rescued by Italy's
navy. But the path through Turkey to the Gevgelija is completely
overland, so many migrants prefer it. Daily Mail (London) and Reuters and Schengen Visa Info
****
**** Surging numbers of migrants on EU borders
****
The number of migrants at the EU's borders reached a record high of
107,500 in July. This figure was up from 70,000 in June, which was
also a record high. Germany has seen a wave of migration from Syria
and the Balkans, and now says it could receive as many as 750,000
asylum seekers this year.
Only two EU countries, Germany and Sweden, take in the majority of
refugees, but other countries are being pressured to take their share.
BBC
****
**** Chinese fear thunderstorms will bring new explosions and death in Tianjin
****
As we reported yesterday,
the
weather report for Tianjin China calls for thunderstorms on Wednesday,
followed by several days of additional raid. This water could react
with the hundreds of tons of deadly sodium cyanide and calcium carbide
to produce new explosions and deadly gases.
According to a Twitter tweet (unconfirmed), the USA embassy in Beijing
is sending out the following message:
<QUOTE>"The following unconfirmed text message is said to
have originated at the Embassy:
For your information and consideration for action. First rain
expected today or tonight. Avoid ALL contact with skin. If on
clothing, remove and wash as soon as possible, and also shower
yourself. Avoid pets coming into contact with rains, or wet
ground, and wash them immediately if they do. Rise umbrellas
thoroughly in your bath or shower once inside, following contact
with rain. Exercise caution for any rains until all fires in
Tianjin are extinguished and for the period 10 days
following. These steps are for you to be as safe as possible,
since we are not completely sure what might be in the
air. Remember the brave firefighters and their families along with
all those suffering from the accident in Tianjin. Stand strong
together China!"<END QUOTE>
However, officials say that there have been no substantial leaks of
sodium cyanide, and that all waterways leading into the sea from the
blast site have been sealed off.
As of Tuesday, 50 firefighters were confirmed killed and 52 others
were among the 57 missing, making the disaster the deadliest ever for
Chinese first-responders. About 1,000 firefighters responded to the
disaster.
The Chinese Communist Party has moved rapidly to correct any problems
by arresting Yang Dongliang, head of the State Administration of Work
Safety. At times like this, it's good to know that the person causing
the problem is no longer at large, and we can all feel safe. AP and Weather Channel and Twitter - DanWatanabe and Radio Free Asia
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gevgelija, Macedonia, Belgrade, Serbia,
Hungary, Turkey, Greece, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya,
Italy, Germany, Balkans,
China, Tianjin, sodium cyanide, Yang Dongliang
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Any updates?
Whoever did that sketch was taking liberties, vs the actual video footage. They may have an agenda (for example, pinning it on a Red Shirt they don't like). The person in the video is not some East Asian dude with permed hair. He looks like a long lost cousin of Dzokhar Tsarnaev:
Any updates?
The Thai police say that he's definitively "a foreigner," not Thai.
But it may be a mixed foreign and Thai conspiracy.
Also, they say the picture is "computer generated," and of course
we know that computers don't have an agenda.
20-Aug-15 World View -- China's yuan devaluation causes currency chaos in Asia
*** 20-Aug-15 World View -- China's yuan devaluation causes currency chaos in Asia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Slovakia will accept 200 migrants -- but only if they're Christian
- China's yuan devaluation causes currency chaos in Asia
****
**** Slovakia will accept 200 migrants -- but only if they're Christian
****
Syrian migrants leave from Bodrum, southwest Turkey, early on Wednesday, hoping to reach Greece's Kos island (AFP)
With the European Union receiving hundreds of thousands of migrants,
mostly arriving in Greece and Italy, the European Commission has been
trying get agreement from the member states to agree to resettle the
migrants equitably. On July 20, the Commission reached agreement on
resettling 40,000 migrants to different countries. However, even that
low target has not yet been met, as individual member states only
committed to accepting 32,000, with the remainder to be decided later
in the year.
On Wednesday, the plan received another blow, when Slovakia announced
that it would accept 200 migrants for resettlement, but only if
they're all Christians. According to the plan, Slovakia will ask each
migrant to name his religion upon arrival, and Muslims would be turned
away.
A government spokesman explained that there are now so few Muslims in
Slovakia that any new additions would not even want to remain there,
and would transit through the country to Germany, where there are
already large numbers of Muslims:
<QUOTE>"We want to really help Europe with this migration
wave but... we are only a transit country and the people don't
want to stay in Slovakia.
We could take 800 Muslims but we don't have any mosques in
Slovakia so how can Muslims be integrated if they are not going to
like it here?"<END QUOTE>
One EU official said that turning away Muslims would be
"discriminatory and of dubious legality." The Slovakian government
statement is provoking outrage, as it challenges the European Union's
multiculturalism ideal. Europa
and BBC and
Daily Sabah (Turkey)
****
**** China's yuan devaluation causes currency chaos in Asia
****
The euro currency has devalued 20% against the dollar this year, but
that devaluation is not causing as much worldwide concern as China's
devaluation last of the yuan currency by 4.4% against the dollar.
( "12-Aug-15 World View -- China's yuan devaluation a humiliating setback for 'China dream'"
)
The reason why China's devaluation is so disruptive is because it
affects the balance of trade throughout Asia. If China's yuan
currency is devalued 4.4%, then a businessman in any other country
purchasing goods from China will have to pay roughly 4.4% more, and if
he sells goods to China, he'll receive roughly 4.4% less money (in his
own country's currency). That means that his prices are a lot less
competitive, and China's are a lot more competitive.
On Wednesday, two Asian countries, Vietnam and Kazakhstan, devalued
their own currencies. Vietnam devalued its dong currency by 1%, and
Kazakhstan devalued its tenge currency by 4.5%.
Kazakhstan has been especially hurt by the 50% fall in oil prices in
the last year. Kazakhstan depends on oil revenues, and requires an
oil price of at least $86 per barrel to balance its budget. Oil
prices are now getting close to $40 per barrel.
Oil isn't the only commodity whose prices are collapsing. This was
highlighted on Wednesday when the Switzerland based global mining
giant Glencore Plc announced a disastrous earnings fall of 29%. The
collapse was blamed on copper, aluminum and coal prices all at
multi-year lows. And the reason that commodities prices have been
collapsing is because of a slowdown in the economy of China, the
world's largest importer of commodities. So this brings us back full
circle to China's devaluation, and a possible vicious cycle.
As one analyst on BBC pointed out, mining companies like Glencore and
Rio Tinto are part of the manufacturing infrastructure that keeps the
world running, and produces things like cars and trains. If Facebook
disappeared tomorrow, then nothing much would happen. But if Glencore
or Rio Tinto disappeared, then the effects on business could be, in
the words of the analyst, "apocalyptic." Bloomberg and Reuters and Bloomberg
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Slovakia, European Commission,
China, yuan, Vietnam, dong, Kazakhstan, tenge,
oil, copper, aluminum, coal, Glencore Plc, Rio Tinto
Permanent web link to this article
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21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet
*** 21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kazakhstan's tenge currency crashes 23 pct, leading the global 'currency wars'
- Global stock markets plummet over currency devaluations
****
**** Kazakhstan's tenge currency crashes 23 pct, leading the global 'currency wars'
****
Kazakhstan copper mine. Kazakhstan's copper is worth 23% more today than on Wednesday
Yesterday, we reported that China's yuan devaluation was causing currency chaos in Asia.
On Thursday,
that chaos deepened in Asia, and spread to global stock markets.
Thursday's most dramatic event was the crash in Kazakhstan's currency,
devaluing by 23%.
Kazakhstan's economy has been hit from all sides. It's biggest export
is oil, and the price of oil has fallen almost 60% in the last year,
and is still falling. The 23% tenge devaluation means that now
Kazakhstan will get about 23% more for its oil. Russia and China are
its top trading partners, and both Russia and China have already had
substantial currency devaluations against the US dollar. The 23%
tenge devaluation will help Kazakhstan's balance of trade with these
and other countries.
The global currency war that we discussed last week ( "12-Aug-15 World View -- China's yuan devaluation a humiliating setback for 'China dream'"
) seems to
be in full swing. South Africa's rand, Brazil's real, and Malaysia's
ringgit currencies all fell to multi-year lows against the US dollar
in the last week.
That's only going to be the start, according to a new report by Morgan
Stanley that lists the top ten troubled currencies: Taiwan dollar,
Singapore dollar, Russian ruble, Thai baht, South Korean won, Peruvian
sol, S. African rand, Chilean peso, Colombian peso, Brazilian real.
According to Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange strategy head Hans
Redeker: Its all about vulnerability. Major victims of the policy
change this time are currencies of countries with high export exposure
and export competitiveness with China." A 1930s-style global currency
war, or "race to the bottom," appears to be in full swing.
So far, the United States dollar is not directly affected by the
devaluations, but that may have to change. All of these currency
devaluations have been against the US dollar, which is the
international reserve currency, which means that as the other
currencies have been getting weaker, the US dollar has been getting
stronger. Currency devaluations are a zero-sum game, in that one
country's devaluation is another country's revaluation.
The global devaluations and the dollar's strengthening are going to
affect America's balance of trade with other countries, which means
that the US will be able to export fewer goods. This will affect the
US economy, as hinted by the sharp Wall Street plunges on Wednesday
and Thursday, and that effect will grow as the devaluations continue,
so that at some point the US may have to devalue as well, and join the
race to the bottom. Bloomberg and Reuters and Bloomberg(8/16)
****
**** Global stock markets plummet over currency devaluations
****
China's Shanghai stock market index plummeted 8.2% in the last three
days (Tuesday-Thursday). As those who have been following the
situation in China will recall, China's stocks are in huge bubble that
began to implode on June 12, with the index quickly plummeting 30%
within a couple of weeks.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) went into full-scale panic, and
poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the stock market to prop
it up, and also passed regulations making it illegal for large
companies to sell stocks, or for the media or bloggers to use words
like "panic."
So the significance of the 8.2% fall in the last three days, beyond
just the fact that a lot of elderly Chinese are losing their life
savings, is that the CCP is rapidly losing more and more credibility,
and chances of a "people's rebellion" against the CCP are increasing.
Other stock markets followed suit. Wall Street stocks sold off
broadly, as did European and Asian shares.
The S&P 500 price/earnings ratio (stock valuation index) is still
above 21, far above the historical average of 14, indicating a huge
Wall Street stock market bubble. China's bubble had to implode sooner
or later, and the same is true of Wall Street. It's possible that
it's happening right now. Guardian (London) and Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, tenge, China, yuan,
Shanghai, Chinese Communist Party, CCP
Permanent web link to this article
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Good riddance to "The Global Economy." I shall welcome a return to "National Economies." I do realize we will never learn though, and after the next world war, a bunch of utopian idiots will retry the failed experiment to try and create a "Global Nation" yet again. And again. And again.*** 21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kazakhstan's tenge currency crashes 23 pct, leading the global 'currency wars'
- Global stock markets plummet over currency devaluations
****
**** Kazakhstan's tenge currency crashes 23 pct, leading the global 'currency wars'
****
Kazakhstan copper mine. Kazakhstan's copper is worth 23% more today than on Wednesday
Yesterday, we reported that China's yuan devaluation was causing currency chaos in Asia.
On Thursday,
that chaos deepened in Asia, and spread to global stock markets.
Thursday's most dramatic event was the crash in Kazakhstan's currency,
devaluing by 23%.
Kazakhstan's economy has been hit from all sides. It's biggest export
is oil, and the price of oil has fallen almost 60% in the last year,
and is still falling. The 23% tenge devaluation means that now
Kazakhstan will get about 23% more for its oil. Russia and China are
its top trading partners, and both Russia and China have already had
substantial currency devaluations against the US dollar. The 23%
tenge devaluation will help Kazakhstan's balance of trade with these
and other countries.
The global currency war that we discussed last week ( "12-Aug-15 World View -- China's yuan devaluation a humiliating setback for 'China dream'"
) seems to
be in full swing. South Africa's rand, Brazil's real, and Malaysia's
ringgit currencies all fell to multi-year lows against the US dollar
in the last week.
That's only going to be the start, according to a new report by Morgan
Stanley that lists the top ten troubled currencies: Taiwan dollar,
Singapore dollar, Russian ruble, Thai baht, South Korean won, Peruvian
sol, S. African rand, Chilean peso, Colombian peso, Brazilian real.
According to Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange strategy head Hans
Redeker: Its all about vulnerability. Major victims of the policy
change this time are currencies of countries with high export exposure
and export competitiveness with China." A 1930s-style global currency
war, or "race to the bottom," appears to be in full swing.
So far, the United States dollar is not directly affected by the
devaluations, but that may have to change. All of these currency
devaluations have been against the US dollar, which is the
international reserve currency, which means that as the other
currencies have been getting weaker, the US dollar has been getting
stronger. Currency devaluations are a zero-sum game, in that one
country's devaluation is another country's revaluation.
The global devaluations and the dollar's strengthening are going to
affect America's balance of trade with other countries, which means
that the US will be able to export fewer goods. This will affect the
US economy, as hinted by the sharp Wall Street plunges on Wednesday
and Thursday, and that effect will grow as the devaluations continue,
so that at some point the US may have to devalue as well, and join the
race to the bottom. Bloomberg and Reuters and Bloomberg(8/16)
****
**** Global stock markets plummet over currency devaluations
****
China's Shanghai stock market index plummeted 8.2% in the last three
days (Tuesday-Thursday). As those who have been following the
situation in China will recall, China's stocks are in huge bubble that
began to implode on June 12, with the index quickly plummeting 30%
within a couple of weeks.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) went into full-scale panic, and
poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the stock market to prop
it up, and also passed regulations making it illegal for large
companies to sell stocks, or for the media or bloggers to use words
like "panic."
So the significance of the 8.2% fall in the last three days, beyond
just the fact that a lot of elderly Chinese are losing their life
savings, is that the CCP is rapidly losing more and more credibility,
and chances of a "people's rebellion" against the CCP are increasing.
Other stock markets followed suit. Wall Street stocks sold off
broadly, as did European and Asian shares.
The S&P 500 price/earnings ratio (stock valuation index) is still
above 21, far above the historical average of 14, indicating a huge
Wall Street stock market bubble. China's bubble had to implode sooner
or later, and the same is true of Wall Street. It's possible that
it's happening right now. Guardian (London) and Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, tenge, China, yuan,
Shanghai, Chinese Communist Party, CCP
Permanent web link to this article
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John,
It's also worthwhile to point out that as oil prices are denominated in dollars, the continued rise of the dollar will push down the price of oil, exacerbating the trend you're talking about abroad. In the US, this will not/is not just impinge(Ing) our exports, it will also continue to pop the frackingf bubble, but also affect the revenues of the many multinational corporations who receive much if not most of their earnings from overseas markets. Not that you wouldn't be aware of this, just adding it for completeness sake.
You're absolutely right, and quite honestly I'm finding it dizzying to
figure out all the ramifications of this.
You have Saudi Arabia flooding the markets with oil; you have the US
frackers who have been flooding the market, but who are now holding
back a bit because prices have fallen, but will come back in full
flooding mode if prices start to go up again; you have various
countries devaluing their currencies in an apparent currency war,
which makes sense for producers, but not for consumers; you have
China's stock market bubble collapsing; you may have Wall Street's
stock market collapsing (DJIA down 300 as of this writing); you have
stocks plunging in Asia, Europe, and Latin America. And as you point
out, there are particular issues for American multinational
corporations.
Then you have "new" crises on the Greece-Macedonia border, and on the
North Korea-South Korea border. That's in addition to the "old"
crises in the Mideast, Pakistan, Nigeria, and so forth. And oh, there
are four new fires at the Tianjin explosion site on Friday, as the
rain causes extremely toxic hydrogen cyanide to fill the air.
Well, I started out by responding to your message, but this seems to
have turned into a rant. As I said, I'm getting dizzy trying to keep
track of everything.
I read today that we will now do a "leveling" of excess oil inventory with Mexico. When we have more excess than Mexico we will export to them until we are even and vice versa. I like it.
Breaking ... two (apparently off duty) thus far unnamed US Marines and Jean-Hugues Anglade have stopped a terrorist attack on the Thallys (up north version of TGV) train near the French - Belgian border. Cops all over the train pulling forensics, perp in custody but not cooperating.
22-Aug-15 World View - Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece
*** 22-Aug-15 World View -- Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Greece ferries thousands of migrants from islands to Port of Piraeus
- Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece
- New fires and masses of dead fish still plague Tianjin China
- Wall Street stocks in free fall on Friday
****
**** Greece ferries thousands of migrants from islands to Port of Piraeus
****
The ferry Eleftherios Venizelos with Syrian migrants on board leaves Lesbos for Greece's mainland
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about 'total chaos' on Greece's islands Kos, Chios and Lesbos
, because
thousands of migrants were arriving at the islands from Turkey,
crossing the Aegean Sea in rubber boats. After human rights activists
expressed outrage at the inhuman conditions on the islands, Greek
authorities agreed to send a ferry to carry them to the mainland.
On Friday, the ferry Eleftherios Venizelos carried about 2,200
migrants from the island of Lesbos to the port city of Piraeus on the
mainland. Buses were waiting to carry the refugees, many of them
families with young children, to train statements. Typically, they
head northwards by train or bus to the city of Thessaloniki, hoping to
travel through Macedonia and Serbia into Hungary and the Schengen
zone. Reuters
****
**** Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece
****
It was just a few days ago that I wrote about A train station in Macedonia
that has become the new
European migrant choke point. Two weeks ago, there were 500-600
migrants per day crossing the border into Macedonia from Greece,
having arrived in the Greek city of Thessaloniki from Syria or
Afghanistan or Iraq, through Turkey. But in the last few days, the
number of migrants has increased to 3,000-3,500 per day.
Up until now, the Macedonian authorities have been sanguine about the
migrants arriving from Greece, because almost none had any intention
of remaining in Macedonia, but were planning to take the train to
northern Serbia and then cross the border into Hungary. When they're
in Hungary, they're in the Schengen zone, which means that they can
travel from country to country with no visa or passport restrictions.
It's believed that the enormous surge in migrants arriving at the
Macedonian border has been triggered by Hungary's announcement in June
that they would build a fence along the border between Serbia and
Hungary. Migrants have been rushing to cross into Hungary before the
fence has been built.
But as of Friday, Macedonian border forces blocked migrants from
crossing the border, beating them back with truncheons, riot shields,
and teargas. Razor wire is now being rolled along the border to
prevent people from entering. Macedonia has declared a state of
emergency, meaning that the country's army will be called on to help
deal with the crisis.
Human rights activists are expressing outrage. According to one,
"Macedonian authorities are responding as if they were dealing with
rioters rather than refugees who have fled conflict and persecution."
Macedonian authorities say that going to permit a limited number of
migrants to enter Macedonia each day.
Unless I'm misunderstanding the situation, that means that within a
few days there are going to be perhaps tens of thousands of migrants
on the Greek side of the border, waiting to enter Macedonia. This
might not end well. BBC and CNN
****
**** New fires and masses of dead fish still plague Tianjin China
****
Masses of dead fish wash up on river shore in Tianjin
Four new fires broke out on Friday morning at the site of the massive
explosions in Tianjin, China, two weeks ago ( "13-Aug-15 World View -- Massive explosion in Tianjin highlights China's dismal industrial safety record"
)
New fires keep arising from the blast site, which is scattered with
smoldering chemicals and flammable substances. Almost 5,000
soldiers and armed police officers have been sent to Tianjin to
clean up the tons of dangerous chemicals.
Chinese officials had declared the air and the drinking water around
Tianjin to be safe, but then tests showed that cyanide in the water
and air were hundreds of times higher than acceptable levels.
Masses of dead fish, numbering in the thousands, were found on Friday
to be piling up on the shores of a river in Tianjin, six kilometers
from the site of the explosions. Chinese officials say that dead fish
are normal this time of year, but local residents say that they've
never before witnessed so many dead fish in the area.
The disaster has caused China's State Council to order nationwide
inspections of facilities handling dangerous chemicals and explosives.
According to government announcements, more than 100 chemical firms
across seven provinces have been told to suspend operations or shut
down due to safety violations in the recent days." Xinhua and Asia Times and Shanghaiist
****
**** Wall Street stocks in free fall on Friday
****
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530 points on Friday, the
biggest one-day plunge in years, as part of a global selloff. (See
"21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet"
.) China's Shanghai stock index fell another 4.3% on
Friday, adding to the 8.2% plunge in the preceding three days.
Britain's FTSE index fell 2.8%.
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.63 on August 21 (WSJ)
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (August 21) was at an
astronomically high 21.63. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Millions of people invested in China's stock markets when the bubble
was being created. In fact, the Chinese government encouraged people
to pour their life savings into the stock market, and many elderly
people did so with their life savings. When the bubble was growing,
no one could conceive that one day the bubble would implode, and
that's what it's doing now.
Similarly, few people seem to believe that the Wall Street bubble
could ever implode, but it's 100% certain that it will. The timing
cannot be predicted, but it's possible that it's happening right now.
A lot of American investors are going to stay up late on Sunday
evening (Monday morning in China) to see what happens to the Shanghai
stock exchange on Monday. Whichever way Shanghai goes, it's possible
that Wall Street will follow in the same direction. India.com and Fox Business
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Lesbos, Kos, Chios, Eleftherios Venizelos,
Turkey, Syria, Aegean Sea, Thessaloniki, Macedonia,
Serbia, Hungary, Schengen Zone,
China, Tianjin, cyanide, Shanghai stock market, Wall Street
Permanent web link to this article
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Yup. I figured a day like today would happen at some point. That's why I have an inverse SPY ETF in my portfolio. It's there to hedge against bubbleicious valuations. I went and made some chart porn in my brokerage account. I set up a 4 line moving average with a set of Fibonacci numbers which are somewhat close to the traditional stuff. The days are 21,55,89,233. The SPY crashed right through the 233 moving average today. This is a first in a long time. The only other time was in 2008. I won't be up late due to the obvious need for protective hedging. Instead , I'll be watching my newly created chart porn to see if I get any more 2008 match ups. My guess is that at some point I can find a number for something to sell a cash backed put on. I think you're spot on that some sort of reversion to mean has to happen. If the PE ratio for that is 5-6, then the moving averages might show when that may happen. [The SPY did touch the 233 moving average sometime in July FWIW. I'll have to study those other moving averages to see if something shows when one crosses another. Like when the 55 crosses the 89 in both directions. If the 55 crosses the 89 down, I'll have to check that one for example and vice versa. The 22 line does all sorts of crossing...<snip>
****
**** Wall Street stocks in free fall on Friday
****
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530 points on Friday, the
biggest one-day plunge in years, as part of a global selloff. (See
"21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet"
.) China's Shanghai stock index fell another 4.3% on
Friday, adding to the 8.2% plunge in the preceding three days.
Britain's FTSE index fell 2.8%.
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.63 on August 21 (WSJ)
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (August 21) was at an
astronomically high 21.63. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
I wonder when the next housing bust will happen. We also have subprime auto as well.A lot of American investors are going to stay up late on Sunday
evening (Monday morning in China) to see what happens to the Shanghai
stock exchange on Monday. Whichever way Shanghai goes, it's possible
that Wall Street will follow in the same direction. India.com and Fox Business
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
Time to break out the amyl nitrite (the chemical in the cyanide kits at work).
I think methylene blue is also a cynanide poisoning antidote as well.
It's an interesting chemical: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methyl...nide_poisoning
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
23-Aug-15 World View -- Fraud and subversion in Healthcare.gov
*** 23-Aug-15 World View -- Fraud and subversion in Healthcare.gov - the greatest IT disaster in history
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Fraud and subversion in Healthcare.gov - the greatest IT disaster in history
- Introduction to the Healthcare.gov debacle
- The Massachusetts Health Connector web site
- Other Obamacare exchanges
- Obamacare's Medicaid and 'Nixon-Obama Price Controls'
- About the Author
****
**** Fraud and subversion in Healthcare.gov - the greatest IT disaster in history
****
Typical Healthcare.gov home page
For three months I've been investigating the Heathcare.gov disaster --
the federal web site and multiple web sites all failed disastrously on
launch day, October 1, 2013. It can't be a coincidence that so many
software development projects all failed disastrously in the
same time frame, so there has to be a core reason.
My investigation has shown that the core reason was that the Obama
administration poured a tsunami of money into these projects -- so
much money that the contractors hired thousands of incompetent
programmers in order to spend that money, with the result that the
software projects failed. Spending the money became more important
than getting the web sites working. As the projects failed, the
coverups, corruption, lies and fraud began, and continue to this day.
I also expanded my investigation into Obamacare in general, and found
that almost every aspect is thoroughly drenched in corruption and
fraud. The Obama administration took the money in the $710 billion
Medicare fund and used the money to fund one disastrous Rube Goldberg
component after another. These components, such as the "risk
corridors," the "co-ops," and the state-run "Obamacare exchanges,"
were all supposed to be self-sustaining by now, but instead they're
all financial disasters. And now that the confiscated Medicare money
is running out, they'll have to be shut down.
The Obama administration has confiscated the $710 billion dollar
Medicare fund that millions of people worked for decades to create,
and essentially thrown it into the garbage. The contributions of
those millions of people have all been lost, with nothing to show for
it.
Many of the state-run Obamacare exchanges are working today, but only
barely. Since they were implemented with thousands of incompetent
programmers, where the objective was simply to spend money, they're
technological dinosaurs with billions of lines of code that's now
almost completely unsupportable. In addition, they're financial
disasters, and will have to be thrown out.
This World View article is a summary of two lengthier articles
on my web site:
- "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history" -- a
journalistic report, based on three months of research, on
Healthcare.gov and Obamacare.- "For academics: Dysfunction, subversion, sabotage and fraud in software development projects" -- an academically-oriented report on
software development disasters in general, including "lessons
learned" from the Healthcare.gov disasters.
Earlier this month, I wrote "5-Aug-15 World View -- Britain's National Health Service (NHS) faces existential financial crisis"
. In that article, I described
how both the NHS and the Veterans Administration health care system
were quickly becoming financial disasters. The same is true of
Obamacare.
****
**** Introduction to the Healthcare.gov debacle
****
On October 1, 2013, Healthcare.gov went "live," and was soon revealed
as the biggest IT (information technology) and computer software
disaster in history. That it was a disaster was clear, as President
Barack Obama was completely humiliated after announcing that the slow
response was because millions of people were signing up for insurance.
Two months after the launch, I wrote "1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed"
. In that article, I said that the
reported number of 500 million lines of code was impossible. It was
impossible to develop a working web site with 500 million lines of
code, and anything that size would be unsupportable anyway. I added:
<QUOTE>"I get a picture in my mind of 1,000 monkeys sitting
at computers typing code, without worrying about whether or not it
works. Given the size of the catastrophe, some variation of that
must have happened."<END QUOTE>
I was thinking "criminal fraud" when I wrote that article, but I
didn't use those words without any proof. Now, almost two years
later, we finally have reports coming out that provide evidence of
criminal fraud. There weren't thousands of monkeys typing random
code, charging $200/hour each, but there might as well have been.
We now know exactly why Healthcare.gov was such a disaster:
- Healthcare.gov, as well as each of the state healthcare
exchanges, was a fairly simple web site that a team of 10-20 people
could have developed for around $10 million.- But the Obama administration granted $150-$500 million to software
development contractors for each of the web sites.- As a result, the primary objective of the contractors was NOT to
develop the web site; it was to find ways to spend $150-500
million.- In order to spend that money, each contractor hired hundreds of
programmers for each web site, many of whom were unqualified. Among
other problems this violated Brooks' Law from the 1960s: "Adding
manpower to a late software project makes it later"- The hundreds of hired programmers were not monkeys, but they might
as well have been. They didn't have the required skills, and so even
simple documentation tasks weren't completed on time, or completed at
all.- In order to keep the money flowing, contractors lied and cheated
on tests, effectively committing fraud. And because of the amount of
money involved, the fraud was undoubtedly criminal fraud.
There's little doubt in my mind that if the Obama administration had
granted $20 million per web site instead of $150-500 million per web
site, then they would have gotten working web sites to start with. By
pouring out a tsunami of money, they got a disaster and major
humiliation, which is what they deserved.
The above conclusions were based on a detailed examination of the
Massachusetts Health Connector project, and briefer looks at
other Obamacare exchange projects.
In the case of the Massachusetts Health Connector project, there was
development contractor, CGI Corp., and an overseer contractor, the
University of Massachusetts Medical School. The evidence from the
whistleblowers indicates that both these contractors allegedly
committed criminal fraud, and furthermore that they were allegedly in
a criminal conspiracy to defraud the government.
This story is full of criminals and a few heroes. The heroes are the
ones who told their bosses that the project was in trouble, and were
ordered to keep quiet, or were treated abusively and fired. The
criminals are the ones who lied and cheated, committed fraud, and
conspired to commit fraud.
****
**** The Massachusetts Health Connector web site
****
Now let's turn to what happened to the Massachusetts Health Connector
web site. Much of the following depends on extensive research done by
by Josh Archambault at the Pioneer Institute. (See Josh Archambault's report).
There were two contractors involved. CGI Corp. was responsible for
coding and implementation, and the University of Massachusetts Medical
School (UMass) was hired to do oversight on CGI's work.
"Dave" was the Interface Manager at UMass early in the Mass Connector
development. He ended up being a whistleblower, and he asked me not
to use his real name. He said that a small team could have done the
Mass Connector for very little money:
<QUOTE>"One of the last conversations I had with the program
managers was that I said I wanted to take this over. I said that
we don't need 200 or 300 people that CGI is using. You can't herd
information through 300 people fast enough for them to develop
anything. They'll never get it done. Give me six people, and
we'll get it done, and it will work. I was fired the next
day."<END QUOTE>
This is an important statement, and it explains why I wrote the
comment about the "1,000 monkeys" typing random code in my original
article. It's literally impossible to spend the kind of money that
the Obama administration was pouring out to its supporters to get a
technical project done. As Dave says, "You can't herd information
through 300 people fast enough for them to develop anything."
Like Dave, I could have developed the Mass web site or the federal web
site within a few months, working with a team of five to ten people.
And it would have actually worked.
The following is a brief summary of what happened, omitting many
technical details. The full story, including technical details, can
be found in the lengthy article "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history".
In the fall of 2012, CGI was missing deadline after deadline. More
importantly, CGI was unable even to provide any technical
specifications of what it was doing. CGI had hired hundreds of
programmers in order to spend all the money they'd been given, and it
was becoming clear that in order to hire so many programmers, CGI had
had to lower their standards substantially, with the result that many
of the programmers were too incompetent even to produce technical
specifications. And if CGI was too incompetent to produce any
technical specifications, then they certainly were too incompetent to
produce usable code.
In the aftermath, UMass claimed that they didn't know that CGI had
been missing deadline after deadline. However, Dave says that that
claim was completely untrue:
<QUOTE>"I was reporting to management, calling meetings, and
we had a JIRA [problem reporting] system set up. Report in JIRA,
escalate it, escalate it. So when UMass said they didn't know
that CGI was missing deadlines, that's absolutely not true - there
were meetings and JIRA reports."<END QUOTE>
UMass had been hired to provide oversight over CGI. But instead of
being an overseer, the contractor became a collaborator.
In December 2012, CGI had to perform a live test that required sending
test messages back and forth between CGI's software and the servers in
Washington. CGI proposed to cheat on the test, and then lie to
government officials. Dave refused to approve the fraudulent test,
despite intense pressure from his bosses at UMass. Dave was removed
from his job and fired shortly thereafter. The fraudulent test was
approved by UMass's management.
After Dave was fired, CGI continued to miss deadlines and fake tests,
and lie to government officials. When launch day came along, October
1, 2013, the web site didn't work at all.
According to Archambault's report, problems just continued. In the
Spring of 2013, CGI faked tests by using dummy screens on its web
site, and claimed that it had performed a valid test. By that time,
CGI knew that the project would fail, but refused to tell anyone. CGI
never ran the end to end tests that it had committed to, and by the
October 1 launch date, the software was completely untested. Indeed,
it was not working at all, as they knew, but they lied and claimed
that it was working, and accepted hundreds of millions of dollars in
payment for software they knew wouldn't work. UMass was fully
informed about the lying and fraud, but collaborated with it.
CGI and UMass had violated one of the oldest and most important rules
about software development projects: Brooks' Law: Adding manpower to a
late software project makes it later. This is discussed in detail in
my full-length article.
CGI and UMass had spent hundreds of millions of dollars to produce a
piece of garbage, and as bad as that it, there's one more completely
disgusting thing that happened.
By the beginning of 2014, it was clear that CGI Corp.'s development
effort was a total disaster, and the State of Massachusetts
transferred the project to a new consultant firm, Optum Inc. CGI was
paid $17 million for the task of turning the work they had completed
over the Optum But when but Optum received CGI's code, they unable to
use any of it -- it was complete garbage. So CGI had already spent
close to $200 million for a $10 million project, and with that money
they produced nothing but garbage. And they were paid ANOTHER $17
million to turn the garbage over to Optum. As cynical and jaded as I
am, this is almost too much to bear. It illustrates the level of
corruption and fraud throughout the Healthcare.gov project.
What happened here, based on years of experience as a Senior Software
Engineer and as a tech journalist, is that the cause of the disaster
was that the Obama administration paid CGI and UMass had been paid
hundreds of millions of dollars for a $10-20 million software
development project. If they'd paid only $10-20 million, then the
project would have been completed successfully. This was a major
humiliation to the Obama administration, and they got what they
deserved.
****
**** Other Obamacare exchanges
****
What's remarkable is that similar disasters occurred in one
state Obamacare exchange after another, with different contractors,
but always with the same problem: Being given $150-500 million
for a $10-20 million project.
In my full-length article, I
discuss Covered California, the Vermont Health Connector Obamacare
exchange, the Cover Oregon Obamacare exchange, the Nevada Health Link
Obamacare exchange, and the Maryland Health Connection Obamacare
exchange.
All of these were disasters, and they were all drenched in
corruption, fraud and criminality.
There were four state Obamacare exchanges that ran reasonably well on
launch day, October 1, 2013: Connecticut, Kentucky, Rhode Island and
Washington State. What those four had in common was that the
contractor was Deloitte Consulting.
I made repeated requests to Deloitte Consulting for technical
information on how they had accomplished this, but they just made
non-credible excuses and refused to provide any information, so I'm
unable to report whether Deloitte accomplished this through technical
expertise or because of some corrupt relationship with the Obama
administration. However, Deloitte does prove one thing: Whatever they
did could have been done by the contractors for the other Obamacare
state exchanges, so any excuses the other contractors give are sure to
be phony.
****
**** Obamacare's Medicaid and 'Nixon-Obama Price Controls'
****
Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in
2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as
a proposal of economic insanity,
because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's price
controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy.
What I now refer to as the "Nixon-Obama Price Controls" have been
equally disastrous.
As part of my research on the Healthcare.gov software development
projects, I investigated other aspects of Obamacare. Here's a summary
of my findings:
- The Medicaid expansion made millions of new people insured,
creating a major financial crisis in Kentucky and other states.
Obamacare imposed what I call "Nixon-Obama price controls," to
emphasize the fact that the imposed Medicaid price controls are as
destructive to our economy as Nixon's price controls in the 1970s that
destroyed the economy for a decade.- Obamacare confiscated the $710 billion Medicare insurance fund
that workers have been paying into for decades, and used it to fund a
bunch of Obamacare entities. These entities were supposed to be
self-sustaining by now, as the Medicare money runs out, but they're
almost all financial disasters: Obamacare exchanges, Obamacare risk
corridors, Obamacare co-ops, and Obamacare web sites. In the endgame,
these will all have to be thrown out.- The $710 billion Medicare insurance fund, that millions of people
contributed to for decades, has essentially been thrown into the
garbage, with almost nothing to show for it.- The number 12 million of "newly insured" people is essentially
fraudulent because it doesn't take into account the many millions of
people who are effectively uninsured, either because they're on
Medicaid and can't find a doctor who takes Medicaid, or because
they're on a standard "bronze" plan with a $10,000-12,000 deductible,
and have to pay all their medical bills anyway.- Before Obamacare, any uninsured person could get medical care in a
hospital emergency room. The Obamacare endgame is that the only place
where a Medicaid patient will get medical care is in a hospital
emergency room, where they'll get $50 worth of medical services, since
that's the Medicaid reimbursement to the hospital. As before, only
people with private health insurance will get good medical
care.
These are all discussed in detail in my full-length article "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history".
****
**** About the Author
****
I'm very passionate about this story because I've been a Senior
Software Engineer for decades, and I well understand how software
development efforts work, and how criminality would have brought about
the Healthcare.gov disaster.
As far as I know, I'm the first journalist to write at length about
the massive corruption, fraud and criminality in Obamacare, but I'm
hardly considered mainstream. There should have been thousands of
stories about this in the mainstream media by now, but there have been
almost none. But almost no mainstream reporter would dare to
criticize Obamacare in any way, because they know they would face
massive retribution from the Obama administration, just as would
happen to an Iranian reporter who criticized the Supreme Leader.
I'm perhaps uniquely qualified to do this Healthcare.gov analysis.
I'm an apolitical, non-ideological, highly analytical writer. My
background is both as a Senior Software Engineer and a technology
journalist. The following is a very brief summary: Over the years,
I've successfully developed hundreds of software applications for
dozens of employers, from operating systems to compilers to web sites
to complex enterprise-wide systems, working as both a consultant and
an employee. (Resume: jxenakis.com/resume) I was Boston Bureau chief for InformationWeek
magazine for two years, and Technology Editor for CFO Magazine (part
time) for ten years, and I've interviewed hundreds of CEOs, CIOs, CFOs
software developers and managers. (Examples: http://ww2.cfo.com/author/john-xenakis/).
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Obamacare, Healthcare.gov,
CGI Corp., University of Massachusetts Medical School, UMass,
Josh Archambault at the Pioneer Institute, Massachusetts Health Connector,
Veterans Administration, Britain, National Health Service, NHS,
Medicaid, Medicare insurance fund, Obamacare exchanges,
Obamacare risk corridors, Obamacare co-ops, Obamacare web sites,
Covered California, Vermont Health Connector Obamacare exchange,
Cover Oregon Obamacare exchange,
Nevada Health Link Obamacare exchange,
Maryland Health Connection Obamacare exchange,
Deloitte Consulting, Connecticut, Kentucky, Rhode Island, Washington State,
Nixon price controls, InformationWeek magazine, CFO magazine
Permanent web link to this article
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24-Aug-15 World View - Asian stock markets in freefall with China in full-scale panic
*** 24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea mobilizes its troops and submarines
- North and South Korea negotiate as both sides prepare for war
- Flood of Syrian migrants into Europe continues to grow
- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic
****
**** North Korea mobilizes its troops and submarines
****
South Korean soldiers near the DMZ on Sunday (Yonhap)
Although peace negotiations between North Korea and South Korea are
ongoing, the North has mobilized thousands of its troops near the DMZ,
the border with the South, and 50 North Korean submarines, about 70%
of its fleet, have left port and remain undetected by South Korean
radar. This is the highest level of North Korean military activity in
years.
In response, the South Korean military is maintaining full readiness
and mobilizing more antisubmarine assets such as destroyers, P-3C
patrol planes and Lynx antisubmarine helicopters.
These activities come in the midst of long-scheduled joint military
exercises between South Korea and the U.S. Arirang (Seoul) and Yonhap (Korea) and Korea Herald
****
**** North and South Korea negotiate as both sides prepare for war
****
It's very hard for me to get excited about the threats of war from
North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, that have been going on
almost daily for years, or for South Korea's empty expressions of
outrage over any hostile action that the North Koreans take.
In April 2010, North Korea launched a torpedo that sank the Cheonan, a
South Korean navy warship, in South Korean waters, drowning 46 people.
Then in November 2010, North Korea launched an artillery attack on on
South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing civilians. ( "26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack"
)
In those and other cases, South Korea responded by carefully
avoiding officially blaming the North Koreans, even though there
was never any doubt that the North Koreans were to blame. The
reason for the reticence was that to blame the North Koreans
would force South Korea to respond military, resulting in a war.
(As an aside, the Chinese have conducted massive cyber attacks against
the US government, and the US government uses every possible wording
to avoid blaming the Chinese. The reason is the same -- blaming the
Chinese for an act of war would require American retaliation.)
Although South Korea did not retaliate, there was a substantial
increase in public nationalism, and hostility to the North. The South
Korean government promised that the next military provocation by the
North would be met with a military response.
Earlier this month, two South Korean soldiers were wounded
by land mines planted in the so-called demilitarized zone (DMZ)
that separates the two countries, and was defined in 1953
by the armistice that ended the active fighting in the Korean
War.
Once again, South Korea decided not to take military retaliation.
Instead, the South Koreans began broadcasting anti-North propaganda
via loudspeakers on the end of the DMZ into North Korea.
As mild as this form of retaliation seems to be, it appears to have
completely infuriated the child dictator, who threatened war if the
loudspeakers were not turned off.
The South Koreans offered to turn them off only if the North Koreans
apologize for the landmine in the DMZ earlier this month. The North
refused to do so, and set a deadline of 5 pm on Saturday for the South
to turn off the loudspeakers or face war.
However, peace talks began on Saturday, and are apparently continuing
into Monday.
So the question remains whether North Korea will actually use those
troops and submarines it's mobilized. Analysts are suggesting that
the negotiations will succeed with the North expressing regret for the
landmine but not apologizing, and the South turning off the
loudspeakers. Arirang (Seoul) and Reuters
****
**** Flood of Syrian migrants into Europe continues to grow
****
Migrants from Syria and Afghanistan travel to Turkey, through Istanbul to Greece, through Greece to Macedonia, where they take the train to Belgrade Serbia, and then walk or hitchhike 100 miles to Hungary's border.
Because of the weather, this is probably the peak season for migrants
from the Mideast and Africa attempting to reach Europe.
On Saturday, there were some 5,000 migrants in Greece on the border
with Macedonia. Macedonian police officers tried to prevent them from
entering their country, but more than 1,500 pushed through the barbed
wire, with the police trying to stop them with batons and stun
grenades.
In the meantime, the Greek passenger ship "Eleftherios Venizelos" is
traveling back and forth carrying 2000-2500 migrants each trip from
the islands of Lesbos, Kos and Chios to the Port of Piraeus. Many of
them will take buses to Thessaloniki, and from there join the throng
trying to pass into Macedonia.
The Macedonians are now letting most of them into the country, since
they're only going to pass through to Serbia. From there, they'll try
to pass through to Hungary, which would put them into the Schengen
zone, allowing visa-free travel from country to country. They want to
get through the border as quickly as possible, since Hungary is
building a double-fence to keep them out, and it's supposed to be
completed within a couple of weeks.
The other route taken by Syrian refugees is overland to Libya, where
human traffickers pack them into rubber boats and push them out into
the Mediterranean Sea, where the migrants hope that European naval
vessels will rescue them before the rubber boats sink, drowning them
all.
Italy's coast guard rescued 4,400 migrants on Sunday, the biggest
single-day operation mounted to date. The increase in rescues
prompted criticism from an Italian government official:
<QUOTE>"This must be a joke. We are using our own forces to
do the people smugglers' business for them and ensure we are
invaded."<END QUOTE>
Greek Reporter and BBC
****
**** Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic
****
As of this writing on Sunday evening ET (Monday morning in Asia),
Asian markets are down 1-3% in different countries, that is being
called a "broad-based meltdown."
An hour after the Shanghai stock market opened, the index was down
over 7%. It seems pretty clear that China's stock markets are in a
state of full-scale panic.
Futures in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 220.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island, demilitarized zone, DMZ,
Syria, Turkey, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, Libya, Italy,
China, Shanghai stock market
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Who knew they could get something right?So the question remains whether North Korea will actually use those
troops and submarines it's mobilized. Analysts are suggesting that
the negotiations will succeed with the North expressing regret for the
landmine but not apologizing, and the South turning off the
loudspeakers.
25-Aug-15 World View -- What to expect after Monday's global stock selloff
*** 25-Aug-15 World View -- What to expect after Monday's global stock selloff
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- What to expect after Monday's global stock selloff
- African currencies crashing, along with commodities and China
- North Korea 'expresses regret', defusing war threat with South Korea
****
**** What to expect after Monday's global stock selloff
****
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.63 on August 21 (WSJ)
Monday was one of the most volatile days in Wall Street history, with
high-volume wild swings. The DJIA fell almost 1100 points within
minutes after the opening, and then recovered most of the loss,
finally ending down 588 points, or almost 4%.
The selloff was global. In Europe, stock exchanges in Britain,
Germany and France fell around 5%, and in Asia, stock markets in
Japan, Hong Kong and Australia fell 4-5%.
So let's start with where we are.
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (August 21) was at an
astronomically high 21.63. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
I've been pointing out for years that the Wall St bubble had to burst
at some point, with 100% certainty. It's impossible to predict the
exact time. It's worth noting that we still don't know to this day
why the stock market crashed on that particular day, Black Monday,
October 28, 1929, instead of a few weeks earlier or later.
So it's quite possible that when the crash comes, we'll never know
why it occurred on precisely that day.
Most of the commentators and analysts on Monday were their usual glib
selves, saying things like, "This is a healthy correction," and "This
is a buying opportunity, and "China has too small economy to affect
the rest of the world."
I listened to a number of analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg TV on Monday,
and I did notice a change. Normally, mentioning the price/earnings
ratio (stock valuations) is always strictly forbidden, or if it's
mentioned, then the analysts simply lie, saying "it's low," which is
ridiculous. But on Monday, I actually heard two or three analysts
mention, however briefly, that stock valuations were unsustainably
high. This is quite remarkable, as if some secret code were being
violated.
There's was one particular exchange that was especially interesting.
Mohamed El-Arian is quite possibly the most glib analyst on TV, always
taking a professorial tone, and answering every question by intoning
something like, "There are three reasons: one ... two ... three...."
On Monday, he was specifically asked if stock valuations were high.
He said, almost under his breath, that they were, and then quickly
changed the subject to something completely different. Apparently he
is not ready yet to break the secret code by saying clearly that
valuations are unsustainably high, though he evidently is aware of it.
It was one of the many weird things on a weird day.
Some analysts are calling this Monday the new "Black Monday," but it's
not.
From the point of view of generational theory, October 28, 1929, is a
very special day because it was a day of total panic, and it
traumatized the nation, and it's remembered to this day. But this day
was nothing like that, not a day of total panic. It was a bad day,
but it will be soon forgotten. This was no new "Black Monday."
What this Monday seemed like was a prelude to the real day of panic.
And with stock markets plunging globally, the panic may not begin on
Wall Street at all -- it may begin elsewhere and spread to Wall
Street. As I wrote yesterday ( "24-Aug-15 World View -- Asian stock markets in freefall, with China in full-scale panic"
), it may be that China already
appears to be in full-scale panic, though it's hard for me to judge
for sure from this distance.
If I were to guess what's going to happen in the next few days it
would be this: I would expect Wall Street stocks to bounce back up on
Tuesday. Expect to see a lot more volatility, with stocks rebounding
one day, and plunging the next. Then, one day, a real panic will
occur, and that will be the day that will be remembered for years.
That day has to come, with 100% certainty. We just don't know exactly
when. AP and ZeroHedge
****
**** African currencies crashing, along with commodities and China
****
Stock markets usually get most of the attention, but in fact the
global selloff is applying to currencies and commodities as well.
As we wrote last week ( "21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet"
), a number of currencies are falling
against the dollar, following in the lead of China's surprise
devaluation of its yuan currency.
African economies, and African currencies, are being hit hard China's
devaluation and economic slowdown. More than one-quarter of Africa's
exports go to China, and countries like South Africa, Kenya and Zambia
are being hit hard. Zambia derives almost 70% of its export earnings
from copper, and with copper prices falling, Zambia's currency fell
4.6%. The price of oil keeps falling, and oil-exporting countries
Nigeria and Angola are losing substantial portions of their income.
The price of oil is falling dramatically, reaching as low as $38 per
barrel on Monday. Countries outside Africa, such as Venezuela, Russia
and Saudi Arabia, are suffering because their income depends on oil
being closer to $100 per barrel.
What makes the global financial situation so precarious is that there
doesn't seem to be any good news anywhere. Economic growth is tepid
in the the U.S. and slowing, while there's no growth to speak of in
China, Europe, or any of the developing countries with the possible
exception of India.
Another bizarre twist in today's world is that investors are very
concerned when the US Federal Reserve is going to raise interest
rates, with the base Fed Funds Rate currently almost zero (0.13%).
With all of these currencies weakening and devaluing against the
dollar, the dollar is getting stronger, which will make America less
competitive in the world, and affect the US economy.
However, there's another angle to this. With near-zero interest rates
in the U.S., it's been possible for countries and businesses around
the world to borrow a lot of money, and go deeply into debt. If the
Fed Funds Rate goes up, then the interest rates on those debts will
also grow, causing further problems for these borrowers. Bloomberg and BBC and Zero Hedge
****
**** North Korea 'expresses regret', defusing war threat with South Korea
****
As we reported yesterday,
North
and South Korea were both mobilizing for war, but were negotiating for
peace at the same time. South Korea was demanding that the North
apologize for planting landmines in the demilitarized zone (DMZ),
causing two South Korean soldiers to be wounded. North Korea was
refusing to apologize, or to admit laying the land mines. South Korea
was using loudspeakers to broadcast anti-North propaganda across the
DMZ, and the North was demanding that the loudspeakers be turned off.
Some analyzed were predicting that the North and South would reach an
agreement, whereby the North would "express regret," without actually
apologizing, and that the South would accept that as an apology.
And that's exactly what's happened. North Korea said that it
"regrets" that South Korean soldiers were injured by landmines and
lifted its "semi-state of war."
Even though this was neither an admission nor an apology, it was good
enough for the South to claim that the North had apologized. The
South shut down the loudspeakers, and the national security chief, Kim
Kwan-jin, said:
<QUOTE>"I wish that we can build the new South and North
Korea relationship that our people (wish for) by sincerely
carrying out the agreed issues and building trust through dialogue
and cooperation. During the meeting, it is very meaningful in the
aspect that the North apologized over the landmine incident and
that they agreed on making efforts to prevent such incidents from
reoccurring and easing tension."<END QUOTE>
Nobody believes that this new agreement will bring about any
fundamental changes. It won't be long before the North once again
does a military provocation, or threatens the South with war.
Korea Herald and CNN
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mohamed El-Arian, China, Africa,
South Africa, Kenya, Zambia, Nigeria, Angola,
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, India,
North Korea, South Korea, Kim Kwan-jin
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