Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 1-Sep-15 World View -- Kiev violence triggered by proposal to give east Ukraine more autonomy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kiev violence triggered by proposal to give east Ukraine more autonomy
• Troops from Chechnya fighting on both sides in Ukraine

****
**** Kiev violence triggered by proposal to give east Ukraine more autonomy
****


Demonstrators clash with police outside the Parliament in Kiev, Ukraine, on Monday (Reuters)

Protesters outside the parliament building in Kiev, the capital city
of Ukraine, killed a national guardsman and injured near 90 other
national guardsmen on Monday. The violence is blamed on a highly
nationalistic political party Svoboda ("Freedom"), sometimes accused
of being neo-Nazi.

The protesters are opponents of a bill discussed in the parliament.
The bill would grant special autonomous status to the Donbas (East
Ukraine), the region being held by ethnic Russians following last
year's Russian invasion of both Crimea and the Donbas. Russia annexed
Crimea after invading it, but the Donbas has been much more
problematical for Russia.

According to one legislator opposing the law, it is "a betrayal of
Ukrainian national interests" by giving too much autonomy to the
Russian separatists:

<QUOTE>"They get their own police, their own courts,
prosecutors, taxes, they have the right to special relationships
with neighboring Russian regions. So what next, will they be
allowed to open their own embassies tomorrow? ...

Europe is selling us out and giving us up as it did Czechoslovakia
in 1939. This is a humiliation of the national dignity of the
Ukrainian nation."<END QUOTE>

The legislation to grant the Donbas special autonomous status is a
central part of the so-called "Minsk agreements," a peace agreement
negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in February.

Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko was opposed to the Minsk
agreements because they dismember the country Ukraine even further,
following the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea.

However, France, Germany and the United States pressured Poroshenko to
accept the deal in the hope that by providing Russia's president
Vladimir Putin an honorable way to back down, then he might actually
do so. With Russia in severe economic trouble from plunging oil
prices, Putin may be anxious to be free of the enormous expenses of
supporting the Donbas separatists.

Monday's violence suggests that there's a long fight head to get the
law passed. There's a great deal of opposition to granting the
separatists so much autonomy, and Poroshenko may be unable to pull
together all the votes he needs when there's a final vote later this
year.

The Russian separatists may not go along with it either. They're
discussing holding elections in October under their own rules, not
Ukrainian ones. This would effectively negate the Minsk agreement.
Reuters and Bloomberg

****
**** Troops from Chechnya fighting on both sides in Ukraine
****

Reports indicate that Russian militias fighting in Donbas often
contain troops from Chechnya, Dagestan or Ingushetia or other
non-ethnic Russia groups.

There are indicates that this is a conscious Moscow policy, mainly
because ethnic Russians often sympathize with the Ukrainians.

According to one Moscow analyst:

<QUOTE>"Because ethnic Russians, even the most pro-Putin and
most committed vatniks ... in an extreme situation always find a
common language and point of contact with Ukrainians. ...

There are many occasions when Russian ‘volunteers’ phone Ukrainian
‘fighters’ and say: well, guys, you’d best get away from here, we
will be firing on you there.’ Such situations are not rare in the
opposite direction as well."<END QUOTE>

The situation is further complicated by the fact that some Chechens
are fighting on the side of Kiev. There are two battalions of about
150 Chechen fighters each on the Kiev side in Ukraine. Many of these
fighters might otherwise have gone to Syria.

Russia’s military presence in and occupation of Donbas territory is
much less popular among Russian-speaking Ukrainians than Putin
initially predicted in 2014. However, Chechens appear to be willing
to fight on either side. Paul Goble and Jamestown (13-Aug) and Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Kiev, Crimea, Donbas,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Germany, France,
Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia

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Whether or not Svoboda are Nazis, according Donbas autonomy (possibly a baby step to annexation by Russia) is rightfully perceived by Svoboda as akin to the Sudentenland scenario where the Czechs (with much pressure from the supposed "International Community") gave land to the real Nazis hoping that throwing them a bone would prevent World War 2. A lot of good that did.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Weird. Really really weird.

Weird? How so?

*** 2-Sep-15 World View -- China leads a worldwide stock selloff

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China leads a worldwide stock selloff
• Oil volatility illustrates exogenous factors affecting Wall Street
• China rescues the stock market every day at 2 pm
• China arresting people who spread malicious rumors by telling the truth

****
**** China leads a worldwide stock selloff
****


Beijing skyline (Getty)

China's Shanghai stock market index fell 1.2% on Tuesday, which isn't
that much, but possibly more significant was China's Caixin
manufacturing index, which showed the quickest factory contraction in
China in years. China's economic slowdown is raising concerns around
the world. Japan's Nikkei index fell 4% on Tuesday, and stocks in
London fell 3%.

Tuesday was a very rocky day on Wall Street, with the Dow falling
570 points at one point, ending the day down 470 points, or 2.8%.

With the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuation index) above
20, far above the historical average of 15, Wall Street stocks are in
a huge bubble that must burst and collapse at some point. ( "28-Aug-15 World View -- Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations"
)

It's impossible to predict when that will happen, but as I've been
saying for a few weeks, it may be happening right now. The analogy
with the 1929 crash is as follows: The
market peaked on September 3, and fell steadily after that, not
reaching a bottom for three years, only reaching a bottom on July 11,
1932. However, when people talk about "the 1929 crash," they're not
talking about any of that. They're talking about October 28, 1929,
when stocks fell 13% in one day, and the country was in a state of
panic that's still imprinted on people's memory to this day (like
September 11, 2001, for a different reason).

The current volatility in stock prices -- surging upward one
day, falling the next -- is a sign that a collapse may be near.
If stock prices settle down, then things can continue as before.
But if this volatility continues and grows, especially with
astronomically high stock valuations, it's a sign that the
inevitable panic may be close.

If we are in fact now in the middle of a collapse of the stock market
bubble, then a day like October 28, 1929, has not yet occurred. That
day will come at some point, possibly soon, and it will be remembered
for decades. CNN and USA Today and CNN

****
**** Oil volatility illustrates exogenous factors affecting Wall Street
****

It's not just stocks that are extremely volatile -- it's commodities
too. Oil was the most extreme. The price of a barrel of oil has been
surging, up 27% in three days, to $49.20 per barrel (West Texas
Intermediate) on Monday. Then on Tuesday, it fell 7.7%, back to
$45.41.

The price of oil is set globally. China's stock prices are set
in China. Neither of these is controlled by the American economy,
and yet they affect the American economy.

This leads to a concept that I've been developing that the current
Wall Street stock market bubble is being affected far more by
exogenous factors than by domestic factors, and that this is a change
from previous bubbles.

The 1929 stock market bubble was almost completely internal to the
United States. The late 1990s bubble was based almost entirely on
technological financing within the United States. The 2007-8
financial crisis was caused by the deflation of the American real
estate bubble and deleveraging of subprime mortgage backed synthetic
securities, almost always from American banks.

But today's bubble is largely exogenous. Yes there's a Wall Street
bubble, but this time Wall Street is heavily interlocked with stock
markets and financial centers around the world, and the Wall Street
bubble is smaller than all the other bubbles put together.

I understand that total debt in the United States is $60 trillion, of
which $18 trillion is federal government debt. I've also read that
total debt in the world is $230 trillion. So, once again, the debt
exposure of the United States is big, but only a small fraction of the
world debt, in countries with whose economies are interlocked with
ours. That means that if almost anyone else sneezes, then we catch a
cold.

I've actually been nibbling at this theory for a few weeks. I've been
trying to explore some of these concepts in the currency area, when
I've been writing about the devaluation of the Chinese yuan,
and then crashing of commodities and various African currencies.
These actions have all strengthened the US dollar,
making the US goods and services less competitive in the world. In
addition, this past weeks there was news that China is selling off
over $100 billion of US Treasuries. This will strengthen the American
dollar even more, possibly significantly, and the make the US even
less competitive in world trade. This would be an example of how the
current situation is significantly different from previous ones,
because today we're reacting to exogenous events, not internal ones as
in the past.

If these observations about exogenous events are correct, then America
may have less control over what's happening than even the already
clueless mainstream analysts and politicians believe. Bloomberg and Dow Jones and Bloomberg(8/27)

****
**** China rescues the stock market every day at 2 pm
****

Every day for the last four days, the Shanghai stock market index fell
sharply in the opening, down 4-6%. But then, in the afternoon, like
magic, the index starts to rise, so that by the end of the day, it's
only fallen 1% or so.

It turns out that this afternoon magic is a conscious policy by the
Chinese. Every day around 2 pm, the Chinese use government-backed
funds to make huge purchases of shares in large capitalization
companies.

According to analysts, individual retail investors are selling off in
the morning, and then Chinese officials are intervening in the
afternoon. Chinese officials do not want anything to spoil their
World War II victory parade celebration on Thursday. However, this
kind of intervention may end on Friday, after the victory parade has
ended. Bloomberg

****
**** China arresting people who spread malicious rumors by telling the truth
****

Investors and journalists in China are becoming extremely nervous
about aggressive actives Chinese officials to investigate or arrest
bloggers and journalists who write about what's happening in the stock
market and investors "meddle" in the stock market by selling stocks.

According to reports, Chinese authorities arrested almost 200
people over the weekend. These include journalists, critics and
traders. Once arrested they're forced to confess. One local
journalist was forced to confess on national state television
that he had spread information that caused "panic and disorder."

When stocks started plunging, Chinese authorities issued
censorship instructions on June 23:

<QUOTE>"Radio and television stations must substantially cut
down on coverage of the stock market and strictly observe the
following rules:

Necessary coverage of the stock market must be
completely balanced, objective, and rational. Do not join the
chorus of the bull or bear market. Rationally lead market
expectations to prevent inappropriate reports from causing the
market to spike or crash.

Without exception, discontinue discussions, expert interviews, and
on-site live coverage. Do not conduct in-depth analysis, and do
not speculate on or assess the direction of the market. Do not
exaggerate panic or sadness. Do not use emotionally charged words
such as “slump,” “spike,” or “collapse.”

Strictly report according to information released by the China
Securities Regulatory Commission. Resolutely avoid promulgating
false information.

Programs on securities must be produced and broadcast by the
broadcast organization. Do not rent or transfer time slots, do not
broadcast programs produced by consulting organizations, and do
not embark on commercial ventures with consulting
organizations."<END QUOTE>

Similar rules apply to reporting on the Tianjian industrial disaster
last month. Daily Express (London) and Reuters and China Digital Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Shanghai, Caixin, Japan

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 31-Aug-15 World View -- Colombia and Venezuela withdraw ambassadors over border dispute

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Colombia and Venezuela withdraw ambassadors over border dispute
• European officials demand forced fingerprinting of migrants

****
**** Colombia and Venezuela withdraw ambassadors over border dispute
****


Venezuelan soldiers check ID cards of bus passengers near the Colombian border on Wednesday (AP)

Venezuela and Colombia each recalled its ambassador to the other
country on Thursday. This was the latest diplomatic action in a
bitter border dispute between the two countries.

The situation was triggered by an attack two weeks ago, when
unidentified gunmen left three Venezuelan border guards and one
civilian injured. Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro quickly
announced that Colombia was at fault -- particularly paramilitary
groups within Colombia linked to Colombia's former president Alvaro
Uribe.

Maduro then sent troops into the shantytowns on Venezuela's
side of the border, where Colombians have been living. Under
Maduro's orders, over 1,000 Colombian immigrants were
deported with almost no notice given to collect belongings.

Colombians and Venezuelans are accustomed to crossing the border
freely for shopping. Colombians cross into Venezuela to purchase
gasoline and food that is subsidized by Maduro's socialist government.
Venezuelans cross into Colombia to purchase medicines and other goods
unavailable in Venezuela because of disastrous shortages caused by
price controls.

Apparently there's no firm evidence of Colombian government
involvement in the attacks on the border guards, although it is common
for armed Colombian groups to cross into Venezuela and purchase large
quantities of price-controlled fuel and food, and then smuggle them
back into Colombia to sell at much higher prices. Venezuela's
president Maduro and Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos Calderón
have been on nationwide television in their respective countries, each
accusing the other of causing the crisis.

Colombia and Venezuela are two of three countries (the third being
Ecuador) that emerged from the victories of the indigenous population
led by Simón Bolívar in the 1810s-1820s over the colonial powers from
Spain. There have been numerous border disputes since then.
The 1948-58 civil war known as La Violencia was a shared
generational crisis war of the two countries.

Maduro routinely blames capitalist speculators or other countries,
usually the United States, for any problem. This time the Colombian
refugees in Venezuela have been picked as the scapegoat. AP and Bloomberg

****
**** European officials demand forced fingerprinting of migrants
****

As each week goes by, Europe's migrant crisis seems to get even worse.
Just on Saturday morning, around 100 inflatable boats reached the
Greek island of Lesbos in the Aegean sea, carrying over 4,000
refugees. This is a factor of 4 higher than just a few weeks ago.
Lesbos is turning into a vast camp of undocumented migrants, with
hundreds of refugees packed in squares and sidewalks, and with women,
children and even elderly people sleeping on the ground.

Many migrants are refusing to be fingerprinted when they arrive in
Greece or Italy. Most migrants prefer to reach the wealthier
countries such as Britain or Germany, and if they're fingerprinted
then they be forced to remain in Greece or Italy.

According to one EU official:

<QUOTE>"Over the last year it became apparent that certain
nationalities (Syrians and Eritreans) were refusing to comply with
fingerprinting procedures.

‘This cannot go unchallenged: we agree with the [European]
Commission that individuals must be given the opportunity to
understand that non-compliance will have
consequences."<END QUOTE>

It's now being proposed that coercion will be used to fingerprint
migrants when they arrive, and to deport any migrants who refuse to be
fingerprinted. Greek Reporter and Daily Mail (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Colombia, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro,
Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, La Violencia, Simón Bolívar, Ecuador,
Greece, Lesbos, Aegean Sea, Italy, Britain, Germany

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http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/europe...igrant-crisis/

"Another batch of refugees, meanwhile, arrives in Munich with almost every train that pulls into the station."

==============================================

Silver lining: The Doners are about to get even better. More competition you know!

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> When 9/11 occurred boomers refused to allow the nuclear
> bombardment of Islamist cities and population centers, they
> refused to allow mass punitive reprisals for insurgent attacks on
> US troops. Boomers refused to see the root cause of 9/11 was
> muslim contempt for western mercy and that the solution was to
> dissabuse the muslims of such notions. The nuclear bombardment of
> muslim cities and population centers would have reestablished
> deterrence. The young despise boomer ideologues for turning the
> western world into a pathetic caricature of its former glory. The
> people love trump because they want to see a MAN in the white
> house not a feminized girly-man. The younger generations do not
> want to be converted into a nation of effeminate globalized
> metrosexuals.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> The 2000 years between roughly the battle of Chaeronea in 338 BC
> and the treaty of Utrecht/and the Hanoverian succession to
> England's throne in 1713 and 1714 AD was the most glorious era in
> Human History. The rightful born leaders were in charge in
> practically every country in the world. Today's boomer elites want
> to create the opposite of that era. Only trump has indicated that
> he intends to help return the world in the direction of its
> rightful social order.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Weird? How so?

Let me count the ways.

First, it's the Gen-Xers who are running the world today, not the
Boomers. So those feminized girly-men you're talking about are all
Gen-Xers.

Second, to talk about a "glorious era in human history" that's 1375
years long, as if there were any uniformity across thousands of
generational changes, is totally absurd. And the idea that you would
approve of the leadership across those 1375 years is laughable.

For example, England's Glorious Revolution of 1688 was an Awakening
era climax in England, but it was a crisis war in Ireland.

** 23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...b.htm#e110623b

If you had been in the Nomad generation in England in the 1690s, then
you would have been absolutely furious that the feminized girly-man
William of Orange was permitted to take the crown, and you would have
been demanding that the English army invade Holland to put them in
their place.

Third, to have bombed Muslim cities and population centers with nuclear
weapons after 9/11 is completely crazy and delusional.

Fourth, to say that "trump has indicated that he intends to help
return the world in the direction of its rightful social order" when
his idea of foreign policy is to imply that all Mexicans are rapists
and murderers is bizarre.

In short, "weird" hardly describes the dysfunction of your remarks.

What's so good about the establishment boomer candidates like Bush and Hillary that you prefer?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Third, to have bombed Muslim cities and population centers with nuclear
weapons after 9/11 is completely crazy and delusional.

A nuclear response After 9/11 would have reestablished deterrence very swiftly. It would have created a respectable "balance of terror" by showing with rapidity what Americans were capable of doing to those who crossed them. The dividing up of the middle east would have also created opportunities to stabilize relations with China and Russia by carrying out negotiations over the delineation of spheres of influences in the region following the campaign.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Let me count the ways.

First, it's the Gen-Xers who are running the world today, not the
Boomers. So those feminized girly-men you're talking about are all
Gen-Xers.

Since gen-Xers are only now entering the top echelons of politics In large Numbers and the failed policies that I mention were enacted starting roughly from the moment the berlin wall fell. Its been 26 years since then during which silent and boomers were at the height of their power. Their refusal to take the gloves off after 9/11 is simply the most obvious example of boomer incompetence. Both Russia and China if they were in the same position would not have hesitated to carry out overwhelming retaliation.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

A nuclear response After 9/11 would have reestablished deterrence very swiftly. It would have created a respectable "balance of terror" by showing with rapidity what Americans were capable of doing to those who crossed them. The dividing up of the middle east would have also created opportunities to stabilize relations with China and Russia by carrying out negotiations over the delineation of spheres of influences in the region following the campaign.

You kind of remind me of the old song lyrics:

I wanna Kill,
Burn men, women and children
Eat dead babies...

Thanks for the laughs.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Since gen-Xers are only now entering the top echelons of politics
> In large Numbers and the failed policies that I mention were
> enacted starting roughly from the moment the berlin wall fell. Its
> been 26 years since then during which silent and boomers were at
> the height of their power. Their refusal to take the gloves off
> after 9/11 is simply the most obvious example of boomer
> incompetence. Both Russia and China if they were in the same
> position would not have hesitated to carry out overwhelming
> retaliation.

Ridiculous. The Artist and Prophet generations in Russia and China
are just as indecisive as America's Boomers. Russia didn't use nukes
in Afghanistan and was defeated. China didn't use nukes to take back
Taiwan, and they still don't have it. Only Nomads are bloody enough
to nuke innocent women and children.

Yet you consider Artist and Prophet indecisiveness a good thing? To use examples from history; Louis XV ruled France during most of the 18th century and focused the country on short-term wealth accumulation, yet he lost the French colonial empire, and carried out "free-trade" just like the boomers do today. By the time he died the French revolution was rapidly becoming inevitable since the country had spent 50 years digging the hole. Just like boomers today wont cede power and allow younger generations to take power and fix our problems; Domestic, Economic, Foreign, Military.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Yet you consider Artist and Prophet indecisiveness a good thing?
> To use examples from history; Louis XV ruled France during most of
> the 18th century and focused the country on short-term wealth
> accumulation, yet he lost the French colonial empire, and carried
> out "free-trade" just like the boomers do today. By the time he
> died the French revolution was rapidly becoming inevitable since
> the country had spent 50 years digging the hole. Just like boomers
> today wont cede power and allow younger generations to take power
> and fix our problems; Domestic, Economic, Foreign,
> Military.

I just report what happens, and try to avoid labeling anything as
"good" or "bad," since that just gets me into trouble. When I feel
strongly about something being wrong, such as suggesting that all
Mexicans are rapists and murderers, then I'll take a position, but
other than that kind of situation, I prefer just to report neutrally.
In particular, I taken no position whether "indecisiveness" in general
is good or bad. Indecisiveness can be a bad thing, if it lets
problems fester and get out of control, or it can be a good thing, if
intervening in a situation can only make it worse. And, in my
opinion, nuking Muslim population centers after 9/11 would have made
things disastrously worse.

And why should Boomers cede power unnecessarily to Gen-Xers who caused
the financial crisis, making millions of people homeless and bankrupt?

*** 3-Sep-15 World View -- Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing
• Thailand seeks to stop illegal Uighur migration flows

****
**** Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing
****


Alleged image of suspect's passport (not confirmed)

Thai officials have arrested a suspect in last month's bombing of the
Erawan Hindu Shrine in Bangkok. It's believed that the arrested man
is a Turkish national, although Thai officials are refusing to confirm
that, pending DNA and fingerprint tests. In the last couple of days.
four new arrest warrants have been issued. All four have been for men
identified as Turkish nationals.

Thailand was shocked last month by the bombing of the Erawan Shrine, a
Hindu shrine in Bangkok, Thailand, killing 20 people, with no one
claiming responsibility. When we first reported
the bombing, there were various suspected
perpetrators, including the "red shirts" or the "yellow shirts" or the
Malay Muslims.

There was one other possibility considered less likely -- that the
perpetrator was using the bombing to protest the Thai government's
forcibly returning 109 Uighurs to China, after they had left China to
travel to Turkey. China had demanded their return, and Thailand
complied, infuriating the Uighur community.

Now it's beginning to increasingly appear that the perpetrators were
either Uighur activists or Turkish nationals. If this is confirmed,
it would be major embarrassment for all three countries -- Turkey,
Thailand and China. Khaosod (Bangkok)

****
**** Thailand seeks to stop illegal Uighur migration flows
****

The Uighurs are a Muslim Turkic ethnic group living in China's
northwestern border province, Xinjiang. Uighur activists have
demanded the secession of Xinjiang province, resulting in bloody
crackdowns from Chinese security forces.

In July, 2009, thousands of Uighurs rioted and demonstrated against Chinese rule.
Chinese officials
accused the Uighurs of attacking Han Chinese in their home, and struck
back against the Uighurs brutally. The Uighurs say that the CCP
discriminates against them. They resent the flood of Han Chinese
"colonizing" the region, taking all the good jobs, leaving the menial
jobs for the Uighurs. They also point out that there's language
discrimination, since few Han speak the Uighur language.

After these violent confrontations between the Uighurs and Han Chinese
in Xinjiang in July, 2009, a flood of Uighurs migrated to Southeast
Asia, including Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma and Malaysia. China
did everything possible to close off those routes, but disaffected
Uighur dissidents began to travel to Turkey, which would not only
provide refuge, but also offer Uighurs employment opportunities and
support networks, where they may engage in anti-Chinese advocacy
activities.

Thailand has become a hub for illegal immigration, and was a big
part of the story earlier this year about Rohingya Muslims
being smuggled out of Myanmar (Burma) for travel to Indonesia.

Last year, hundreds of Uighurs, including women and children, were
found living in squalid conditions in camps in Thailand run by human
smugglers. They all claimed that they were citizens of Turkey, and
many of them were deported to Turkey.

However, under considerable pressure from China, Thailand forcibly
repatriated 109 Uighurs to China earlier this year. This caused
outrage in the Uighur community, resulting in riots and demonstrations
at the Chinese embassies in Turkey and Thailand.

The United Nations Human Rights Commission deemed Thailand’s decision
to be a “flagrant breach of international law,” while Human Rights
Watch described Thailand’s apparent cave in to Chinese pressure as
both “shocking and disturbing.”

It appears that the Uighur is becoming increasingly important in
Southeast Asia, and may well become the focal point of future violent
conflicts. The Diplomat(8/28) and Guardian (London) and The Diplomat(7/11)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Bangkok, Erawan Shrine,
Malay Muslims, yellow shirts, red shirts, China, Uighurs,
Turkey, Rohingya Muslims, Myanmar, Burma, Han Chinese,
Xinjiang

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 3-Sep-15 World View -- Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing
• Thailand seeks to stop illegal Uighur migration flows

****
**** Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing
****


Alleged image of suspect's passport (not confirmed)

Thai officials have arrested a suspect in last month's bombing of the
Erawan Hindu Shrine in Bangkok. It's believed that the arrested man
is a Turkish national, although Thai officials are refusing to confirm
that, pending DNA and fingerprint tests. In the last couple of days.
four new arrest warrants have been issued. All four have been for men
identified as Turkish nationals.

Thailand was shocked last month by the bombing of the Erawan Shrine, a
Hindu shrine in Bangkok, Thailand, killing 20 people, with no one
claiming responsibility. When we first reported
the bombing, there were various suspected
perpetrators, including the "red shirts" or the "yellow shirts" or the
Malay Muslims.

There was one other possibility considered less likely -- that the
perpetrator was using the bombing to protest the Thai government's
forcibly returning 109 Uighurs to China, after they had left China to
travel to Turkey. China had demanded their return, and Thailand
complied, infuriating the Uighur community.

Now it's beginning to increasingly appear that the perpetrators were
either Uighur activists or Turkish nationals. If this is confirmed,
it would be major embarrassment for all three countries -- Turkey,
Thailand and China. Khaosod (Bangkok)

****
**** Thailand seeks to stop illegal Uighur migration flows
****

The Uighurs are a Muslim Turkic ethnic group living in China's
northwestern border province, Xinjiang. Uighur activists have
demanded the secession of Xinjiang province, resulting in bloody
crackdowns from Chinese security forces.

In July, 2009, thousands of Uighurs rioted and demonstrated against Chinese rule.
Chinese officials
accused the Uighurs of attacking Han Chinese in their home, and struck
back against the Uighurs brutally. The Uighurs say that the CCP
discriminates against them. They resent the flood of Han Chinese
"colonizing" the region, taking all the good jobs, leaving the menial
jobs for the Uighurs. They also point out that there's language
discrimination, since few Han speak the Uighur language.

After these violent confrontations between the Uighurs and Han Chinese
in Xinjiang in July, 2009, a flood of Uighurs migrated to Southeast
Asia, including Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma and Malaysia. China
did everything possible to close off those routes, but disaffected
Uighur dissidents began to travel to Turkey, which would not only
provide refuge, but also offer Uighurs employment opportunities and
support networks, where they may engage in anti-Chinese advocacy
activities.

Thailand has become a hub for illegal immigration, and was a big
part of the story earlier this year about Rohingya Muslims
being smuggled out of Myanmar (Burma) for travel to Indonesia.

Last year, hundreds of Uighurs, including women and children, were
found living in squalid conditions in camps in Thailand run by human
smugglers. They all claimed that they were citizens of Turkey, and
many of them were deported to Turkey.

However, under considerable pressure from China, Thailand forcibly
repatriated 109 Uighurs to China earlier this year. This caused
outrage in the Uighur community, resulting in riots and demonstrations
at the Chinese embassies in Turkey and Thailand.

The United Nations Human Rights Commission deemed Thailand’s decision
to be a “flagrant breach of international law,” while Human Rights
Watch described Thailand’s apparent cave in to Chinese pressure as
both “shocking and disturbing.”

It appears that the Uighur is becoming increasingly important in
Southeast Asia, and may well become the focal point of future violent
conflicts. The Diplomat(8/28) and Guardian (London) and The Diplomat(7/11)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Bangkok, Erawan Shrine,
Malay Muslims, yellow shirts, red shirts, China, Uighurs,
Turkey, Rohingya Muslims, Myanmar, Burma, Han Chinese,
Xinjiang

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Yussef (Joseph) Miseraili seems like an outright Turkish name to me. Of course that's assuming the passport shown is even real. It could be a fake.

*** 4-Sep-15 World View -- China displays belligerence, militarism in WW II victory parade

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China displays belligerence, militarism in WW II victory parade
• China's weaponry highlighted by the anti-American 'carrier killer'
• Many world leaders snub China's WW II victory parade
• China sends warships to Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska
• China rewrites history of WW II by giving credit to Mao instead of Chiang

****
**** China displays belligerence, militarism in WW II victory parade
****


Some of the 12,000 soldiers participating in China's parade on Thursday (Getty)

Led by China's President Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
put on enormous military display on Thursday for its "Commemoration of
the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and
Victory in the World Anti-Fascist War."

The stock markets have been shut down until Monday, to prevent any
embarrassing plunges. The skies were blue, a color rarely seen in
Beijing, because all the factories had been shut down for the parade.

Xi Jinping announced that the number of troops in China's army will be
cuty by 300,000, and that:

<QUOTE>"China will remain committed to peaceful
development. We Chinese love peace. No matter how much stronger it
may become, China will never seek hegemony or expansion. It will
never inflict its past suffering on any other
nation,"<END QUOTE>

There are one or two things that Xi didn't mention. One thing he
didn't mention is that the size of the army is decreasing from 2.3
million to 2 million, which makes it the largest army in the world.

He also didn't mention that while China is reducing its ground forces,
it's previously announced huge expansions in its naval forces, as it
prepares for war with the United States.

He said that China's military capabilities would contribute to
international peace and security, but he didn't mention that China is
building military bases on reclaimed land in the South China Sea, and
that China is militarily threatening Vietnam and the Philippines,
including innocent fishermen who have used these waters to fish for
centuries. When Xi says "We love peace," and "China will never seek
hegemony or expansion," what he means is that China is repeating
Hitler's path in World War II, promising "Peace in our time," but also
annexing other people's territories. China will be peaceful with any
country that exactly as the Chinese tell them to do, and China will
militarily kill any country that doesn't.

The more I read about Xi Jinping, the more I conclude that he's
delusional. He talks about the "China dream," which is for China to
pass America and to have the most powerful military in the world,
especially pushing the United States navy out of the Pacific and
Indian oceans. He and many Chinese believe that the United States is
becoming weaker every day, and has lost its will to fight. This is
the delusion of a man who understands nothing about history but
believes that he understands everything.

China is preparing for a pre-emptive attack in the belief that they
will win the war quickly, which makes Xi Jinping and the Chinese
people as stupid as Hitler and the Nazis. History's greatest
disasters are brought about by the stupidest and most delusional
people, and this time the stupidest and most delusional people are Xi
Jinping and Chinese. Those Chinese who survive will deeply regret
their almost unbelievable stupidity, as they go down in history as
worse than the Nazis.

Xi said on Thursday:

<QUOTE>War is like a mirror. Looking at it helps us better
appreciate the value of peace. Today, peace and development have
become the prevailing trend, but the world is far from
tranquil. War is the sword of Damocles that still hangs over
mankind. We must learn the lessons of history, and dedicate
ourselves to peace."<END QUOTE>

Xi and the Chinese prove every day that they have absolutely no clue
what the lessons of history are.

At the end of the parade, 70,000 white doves were released, followed
into the skies by thousands of colorful balloons Xinhua and Independent (London)

****
**** China's weaponry highlighted by the anti-American 'carrier killer'
****

For Thursday's parade, there were hundreds of tanks, nuclear-capable
ballistic missiles, drones, fighter jets, with 12,000 goose-stepping
soldiers rolling through Tiananmen Square in Beijing. One of the
highlights was the "Flying Shark," the J-15 long-range, multi-purpose
carrier-borne fighter jet.

Also displayed was the Dongfeng-5B or 'East Wind 5' intercontinental
strategic nuclear missiles, which has an estimated range of 12,000 to
15,000 kilometers, and is designed to target American cities.

The star of the show was the Dongfeng-21D anti-ship ballistic missile
touted as a "carrier killer," which was paraded for the first time.
The missile is specifically designed to target American aircraft
carriers.

China has not seen any military conflict since it was defeated in a
1979 war with Vietnam, and so it has no battlefield experience using
the equipment put on display. According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"The biggest problem for the [People's Liberation
Army] is integrated warfare, which it has never experienced
before. Integration is essential in modern warfare. ...

[China’s military] has a problem integrating the navy and the air
force because of its rigid hierarchy, inter-service rivalries and
lack of decision-making powers at the command level."<END QUOTE>

VOA

****
**** Many world leaders snub China's WW II victory parade
****

China's display of belligerence and raw military power, taking place
in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, the sight of the brutal, bloody 1989
massacre of thousands of college students, to celebrate the 70th
anniversary of the "Victory of the Chinese People’s Resistance Against
Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War," was snubbed by
many world leaders.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin was there, returning the favor from
when Xi Jinping attended Russia's WW II victory parade in May. Xi
stressed the importance of close relations with Russia, and Putin said
he was deeply impressed by the grand commemoration and military
parade.

South Korea's President Park Geun Hye was there, but North Korea's
leader Kim Jong-un was not. Kim had been invited, but he demanded as
a condition for attending that he sit next to Xi Jinping on the
reviewing stand. Instead, the Chinese placed him off to one side. So
the child dictator snubbed the event and refused to attend at all.
China reversed the snub by scheduling talks between Xi and South
Korea's president Park.

Western countries, including the U.S., France and Britain, sent former
ministers. But Germany was represented only by its ambassador.

The failure to attract more world leaders was not a disaster for Xi
Jinping, but it was not a triumph either, and was a big
disappointment. Deutsche Welle and Xinhua and Yonhap (8/24) (Seoul)

****
**** China sends warships to Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska
****

To further demonstrate China's belligerent intentions towards the
United States, five Chinese warships have been sailing in
international waters in the Bering Sea near Alaska.

The visit by the warships coincided with President Barack Obama's
visit to Alaska earlier this week, and they are part of Thursday's
victory parade to show how China plans to expand militarily in the
Pacific Ocean. Reuters and Shanghaiist

****
**** China rewrites history of WW II by giving credit to Mao instead of Chiang
****


Movie poster for the Chinese film 'The Cairo Declaration,' depicting Mao instead of Chiang Kai-shek

China accuses Japan for rewriting some of World War II's history, but
China isn't shy about doing its own rewriting, when it's convenient.

Xi Jinping on Thursday bragged about how the forces of China's Mao
Zedong had been important and underappreciated factor in defeating
Japan in World War II. However, it wasn't Mao's forces that fought
the Japanese. For the most part, it was Chiang Kai-shek's forces that
bore the brunt of the fighting. Mao held back his forces, and then
used then to defeat Chiang in the civil war that followed WW II in
1945-49.

Last month, China released a film called "The Cairo Declaration,"
recreating a 1943 conference in Cairo by Allied leaders, including
President Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston
Churchill, to discuss strategy for defeating the Nazis and Japanese.
The poster for the movie shows a picture of the actor who plays Mao
Zedong, but Mao didn't even attend the meeting. China was represented
by Chiang Kai-shek.

According to one art critic, "By featuring Mao, who was not present at
the meeting, but excluding Chiang, the poster shows no respect for
history nor to Mao." Military.com


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping,
Commemoration of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and Victory in the World Anti-Fascist War,
South China Sea, Vietnam, Philippines, China Dream,
Dongfeng-5B, Dongfeng-21D, carrier-killer, J-15, Tiananmen Square,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Park Geun Hye, Alaska, Bering Sea,
Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-shek, Cairo Declaration

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*** 5-Sep-15 World View -- After weeks of chaos, Hungary appears to be giving in to the flood of migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• After weeks of chaos, Hungary appears to be giving in to the flood of migrants
• Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán: Muslim migrants threaten Europe's Christian identity
• Austria agrees to allow migrants to pass through Austria

****
**** After weeks of chaos, Hungary appears to be giving in to the flood of migrants
****


Hundreds of migrants traveling on foot

There are potentially millions of refugees from Syria, Iraq and
Afghanistan who are trying to reach Europe, especially Germany, along
a route that goes through Turkey, then through Greece, then through
Macedonia, then Serbia, then Hungary, then Austria, and then Germany.
There are men, women and children, including whole families. They're
traveling by whatever means are available -- walking, buses, trains,
or hitchhiking.

Quite honestly, I've been (and am) puzzled by Hungary's actions during
the last few weeks. Everyone seems to agree that none of the migrants
wants to stay in Hungary; they all want to pass through, on their way
to Germany or Sweden. So the easy solution for Hungary, I would
guess, would be to do what Greece, Macedonia and Serbia have been
doing -- let them into the country, and provide ferries, buses and
trains to get the out of the country as quickly as possible,
so that the migrants become someone else's problem.

Instead, Hungary has been doing everything possible to impede the
migrants' travel during the last two weeks, including the following:

• Hungary has placed razor-wire fencing all along the southern
  border with Serbia. However, migrants have been cutting holes in the
  fencing and passing through.
  
• Migrants have been arriving in Budapest, in north-central Hungary,
  usually by train. From there they buy a ticket for the train that
  travels west to Vienna, Austria. However, Austria discontinued all
  international train travel (to Austria) without proper papers, and
  even ticket-holders weren't allowed to board trains.
  
• Thousands of migrants were crowded around Budapest's train
  station, getting angrier and angrier. Finally, Hungary let some of
  them on the train going west. But it was a trick. After the train
  traveled 20 miles west, the train stopped in the town of Bicske, and
  the migrants were herded out of the train into a nearby refugee
  camp.
  
• The migrants climbed fences and left the refugee camps,
  and started walking along the railroad tracks to Vienna.
  
• Having been trapped in Budapest for over five days, migrants from
  both Budapest and Bicske started walking along the M1 motorway, the
  main highway from Budapest to Vienna, about 200 miles. Police didn't
  try to stop them, but warned them that traveling along the highway at
  night was dangerous because it was pitch black, and there were no
  lights along the highway. They were warned to wear white tee shirts
  so that they would be visible in headlights.
  
• Along the M1 motorway, ordinary Hungarian citizens were offering
  food and water to the walking migrants.
  
• Finally, on Friday, Hungary's government gave in, and is providing
  buses that will take the migrants to the town of Hegyeshalom, on the
  border with Austria, although there was no guarantee that they would
  be able to enter Austria.

It appears that, slowly but surely, Hungary is moving in the direction
of taking the path of least resistance -- just let the thousands of
migrants pass through Hungary unimpeded, into Austria, and then let
Austria deal with them. Hungary Today

****
**** Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán: Muslim migrants threaten Europe's Christian identity
****

According to Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán, German is
responsible for the "mess" in Budapest, because Germany's Chancellor
Angela Merkel has offered to settle 800,000 migrants this year.
According to Orbán, this announcement encourages thousands more
migrants to attempt to reach Germany. According to Orbán, the current
"Grand Migration" has unlimited supply and sooner or later, we could
find that "we’ve become the minority on our own continent."

In an article written on Thursday, he said:

<QUOTE>"We must not forget that those who are coming in have
been brought up under a different religion and represent a
profoundly different culture.

The majority are not Christians but Muslims. That is an important
question because Europe and European culture have Christian roots.

Or is it not already, and in itself, alarming that Europe's
Christian culture is barely able to uphold Europe's own Christian
values? ...

The people want us to control the situation and protect our
borders. Only when we have protected our borders can we ask
questions about the numbers of people we can take in, or whether
there should be quotas.

[It is] pretty depressing that, aside from Hungary -- or the
Spaniards -- no one wants to protect the borders of
Europe."<END QUOTE>

Angela Merkel responded:

<QUOTE>"To the extent that we have in mind Christian values,
then I think it is important that the dignity of every human being
... be protected everywhere it is in danger. ...

[On the asylum issue], Germany is doing what is morally and
legally required, nothing more or less, [and the international
refugee convention] is not only valid in Germany but in each
European (Union) member state."<END QUOTE>

In Brussels, EU President Donald Tusk also reacted to the article,
saying that "for me Christianity in public and social life means a
duty to our brothers in need. Referring to Christianity in a public
debate on migration must mean the humanity to our brothers ... (and)
readiness to show solidarity." Hungary Today and AFP

****
**** Austria agrees to allow migrants to pass through Austria
****

Several hours after Hungarian officials announced that buses would
transport thousands of migrants to Hegyeshalom, on the Austrian
border, Austria's Ministry of the Interior published a statement:

<QUOTE>"Vienna (OTS) - Hundreds of refugees are currently
underway on foot from Hungary towards Austria. Police and Red
Cross are prepared for the arrival of refugees. Every refugee in
Austria can apply for asylum.... Each application for asylum is
individually subjected to a procedural test.

In according with EU and Austrian law, the validity of the
application for asylum in Austria is checked under Dublin
Regulations, and possibly the applicant will be transferred back
to the relevant Member state.

In the event that there is no protection in Austria, coercive
police measures may be carried out, but only in the light of
proportionality. ...

For the Austrian security authorities, what stands above all is to
prevent human tragedies. The ultimate goal is therefore the
maintenance of security and order. It's further important that
people seeking medicines or humanitarian care need to be treated
immediately. The police officers will work closely with relevant
charities. It also aims to prevent people falling into the hands
of unscrupulous traffickers.

A solution of the current situation can only be ensured in the
spirit of European solidarity."<END QUOTE>

This talk of "procedural tests" and "coercive police measures" implies
to me that the Austria will now face exactly the same chaos next week
that Hungary dealt with during the last two weeks. Austria's Interior Ministry (Translation)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Budapest,
Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Austria, Vienna,
Bicske, Hegyeshalom, Germany, Angela Merkel, Donald Tusk

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*** 6-Sep-15 World View -- Russia may be building a new military base in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia may be building a new military base in Syria
• The cost of repudiating the Truman Doctrine

****
**** Russia may be building a new military base in Syria
****


Russian soldiers

In what is potentially a major escalation in the growing sectarian
wars in the Mideast, intelligence officials are saying that Russia
appears to be building a new military base in Syria, in the
Mediterranean port city of Latakia, with an airfield and prefabricated
housing units for up to 1,000 personnel.

Images and videos are emerging that show Syrian and Russian combat
troops fighting alongside each other, with troops shouting orders to
one another in Russian. According to one unnamed intelligence
official:

<QUOTE>"If they're moving people in to help the Syrian
government fight their own fight, that's one thing. But if
they're moving in ground forces and dropping bombs on populated
areas, that's an entirely different matter."<END QUOTE>

Russia justifies its military intervention in support of the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad because of the rise of the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), without mentioning that
Russia, Iran and al-Assad are directly responsible for the rise of
ISIS, by conducting a genocidal campaign against innocent Sunni women
and children, after they peacefully protested in 2011.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is strong strongly disapproving of
the Russian action. According to a statement by the State Dept.:

<QUOTE>"The secretary made clear that if such reports were
accurate, these actions could further escalate the conflict, lead
to greater loss of innocent life, increase refugee flows and risk
confrontation with the anti-ISIL coalition operating in
Syria."<END QUOTE>

The statement makes it clear that, unless Russia desists, then the US
will treat the situation harshly and issue another statement.

As I've been writing for many, many months, there is no war of Muslims
versus Christians. The war in the Mideast and Asia is Muslims versus
Muslims, with the number of Christians killed minuscule compared to
the number of Muslims killed. As I've said many times, this Muslim
versus Muslim war is going to engulf the whole region, and will pull
in the rest of the world.

Well, Dear Reader, guess what? If it's true that Russian troops are
fighting alongside Syrian troops against Sunni militants, then we have
the first war of Muslims versus Christians. This is a generational
Awakening era, where increasingly nationalist and xenophobic
populations are willing to start and escalate wars, with no fear of
the consequences. You can be certain that this will only escalate.
Telegraph (London) and Reuters

****
**** The cost of repudiating the Truman Doctrine
****

I've written many times about the Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial
today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small
military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end
up having an enormous conflict like World War II. Every president
since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including
George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the
Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.

The Truman Doctrine has always been heavily criticized, but it's done
much to preserve peace for decades. Now, since 2011, we see in full
fury what happens to the world without a policeman.

Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, Russia's support has been
essential to the survival of al-Assad. Al-Assad, a member of the
Alawite/Shia religious group, began using heavy weapons on peaceful
Sunni Muslim demonstrators. He's flattened entire Sunni villages with
Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into
exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed hundreds with Sarin gas, and he
continues to kill countless more with barrel bombs loaded with
explosives, metals, and chlorine gas dropped from helicopters.

Al-Assad's genocidal sectarian attack on Sunnis caused the formation
of Iraqi rebel groups, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA). But it
also triggered a worldwide tsunami of young men from around the world
traveling to Syria to fight against al-Assad, joining the al-Qaeda
linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), and causing the creation of
ISIS.

Al-Assad predicted a quick victory in 2012, and that might have
happened if his only enemy had been the FSA. But he began to suffer
defeats at the hands of al-Nusra and ISIS, and his regime could only
continue with the help of a massive supply of heavy weapons from
Russia, fighters from Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC),
and fighters from the Lebanon-based Iran-back terror group Hezbollah.

But even with all that massive support from other countries, the
al-Assad regime has been losing the war against al-Nusra and ISIS, so
that now he's apparently going to need Christian Russian troops to
support him.

All of this has happened as a consequence of Barack Obama's
repudiation of the Truman Doctrine. It's too late to do anything now,
but with no policeman, al-Assad was able to conduct his Sunni
extermination campaign in 2011. The most damaging example of all was
Obama's flip-flop about the "red line" of al-Assad's use of chemical
weapons, which, combined with America's total withdrawal from Iraq,
signaled to all sides in the Mideast that they were free to kill
anyone they wanted with impunity. It's as if all the policemen were
withdrawn from New York City, and then everyone expressed surprised
when the city exploded in multiple gang wars.

We've had seven years of a president with absolutely no clue what's
going on in the world, and it's been a disaster. We have no need for
eight years of another president who has no clue what's going on in
the world. And by that I also mean that we have no need for a
president whose idea of foreign policy is to stoke nationalism,
xenophobia and hatred by repeatedly suggesting that all Mexicans are
rapists and murderers, which is about as disastrous a policy as
possible.

Nor do I accept anyone's claim that the president can hire a staff of
experts who will tell him what to do. President Obama has repeatedly
ignored the advice of army generals and other experts, because he
believes that he's always the smartest person in the room, no matter
who else is in the room. So the claim about hiring a staff of experts
is just an excuse for not knowing anything. In the meantime, the
situation in Mideast worsens every day, and the nicest thing that
anyone can say about American foreign policy in the Mideast is that
it's totally incoherent.

I hear a lot of rhetoric and hot air by politicians on all sides, as
long as I can stand listening to it, but I'm waiting to see if there's
anyone who actually knows what's going on. I'm afraid I'm going to
have to wait a long time.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Latakia, Russia, Bashar al-Assad,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Iran, Hezbollah

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*** 7-Sep-15 World View -- As expected, Austria follows Hungary in saying 'No more migrants'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Migrant workers in Maine being replaced by blueberry-picking machines
• As expected, Austria follows Hungary in saying 'No more migrants'

****
**** Migrant workers in Maine being replaced by blueberry-picking machines
****


Littau ORXL Over-the-Row Berry Harvester has a harvesting speed of about 1.0 mph for picking blueberries and blackberries. (Littau)

Ten years ago, more than 5,000 migrant farm workers, mostly of Latin
American, Caribbean, Native American or Canadian aboriginal origin,
would come to Maine each year to pick 60 million pounds of blueberries
between late July and Labor Day. It was grueling work, but it was
also a way of life, providing several hundred dollars in pay each
week. Today, Maine's blueberry crop is much larger, about 90 million
pounds, but only about 1,500 migrant farm workers are needed.

The difference is blueberry-picking machines, heavy pieces of
machinery, each operated by a driver, and each replacing several
migrant farm workers. The machines require flat farmland, so there is
still a need for migrant workers in the gullies.

According to one manufacturer, Littau, berries picked by machines are
better than berries picked by humans:

<QUOTE>"Berry plants, such as Raspberries, release ripe fruit
at an optimum time when the fruit is fully ripe. At this time the
berry is as heavy and sweet as it will ever be. Once this time has
passed (often a 1-2 day window) the plant regains its previous
hold on the fruit. Machine picking can cover much more acreage in
a short time, reducing labor, and harvesting the berries quickly
to keep them fresh and healthy. Machine harvesting also picks the
entire plant, not only what is visible on the outside of the
bush. Machine harvesting is a perfect repeatable process set to
pick exactly how you configure it, unlike hundreds of hand
laborers who have their own opinion of what is under or
overripe. Another advantage of machine harvesting is our cleaner
fan system. The cleaner fan system allows the operator to separate
debris from the berries and regulates how ripe of berries will be
kept or discarded. For example, if an overripe berry is picked by
the machine the cleaner can be set to remove it before it gets
dropped into the crates automatically."<END QUOTE>

AP and Littau Harvester

****
**** As expected, Austria follows Hungary in saying 'No more migrants'
****

As we wrote two days ago,
Hungary
finally gave in to the massive flow of migrants, after having tried to
do everything possible to impede their flow -- especially at the
southern border with Serbia and at the train station in Budapest. But
when thousands of them began walking along the M1 motorway for the 200
mile trek to Vienna Austria, Hungary finally gave in, and provided
over 100 buses to carry them to the border with Austria.

Also on Saturday, Austria announced it would permit the migrants to
pass through the country to their final destination which, for most of
them, was Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel had promised them a
warm welcome. Many Austrian citizens helped out on Sunday by driving
to Budapest and then driving back to Austria with as many migrants as
their cars could carry.

But on Sunday, Austria's Chancellor Werner Faymann announced
that enough was enough:

<QUOTE>"We have always said this is an emergency situation in
which we must act quickly and humanely. We have helped more than
12,000 people in an acute situation. Now we have to move
step-by-step away from emergency measures toward normality, in
conformity with the law and dignity."<END QUOTE>

At the railway station in Munich, Germany, there were 6,800 arrivals
on Saturday. 13,000 more were expected to arrive on Sunday, and then
another 11,000 more on Monday. Authorities in Munich have
been setting up beds in a disused car showroom and a railway
logistic center, but they're running out of room.

Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán blames Germany's Chancellor
Angela Merkel for the huge flow of migrants and refugees from
Syria:

<QUOTE>"As long as Austria and Germany don't say clearly that
they won’t take in any more migrants, several million new
immigrants will come to Europe."<END QUOTE>

Sky News and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Maine, blueberries, Littau Harvester,
Budapest, Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Vienna, Austria, Werner Faymann,
Munich, Germany, Angela Merkel

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If you think Trump would be a worst case scenario for president; what candidates do you think would be best-case leaders?

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> If you think Trump would be a worst case scenario for president;
> what candidates do you think would be best-case leaders?

It's not my job to select among presidential candidates, but when
someone stokes xenophobia and hatred by referring to Mexicans as
rapists and murderers, then I felt a need to comment on it.

*** 8-Sep-15 World View -- In major Yemen war escalation, Qatar is deploying 1,000 ground troops

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen suffers its deadliest day
• In major escalation in Yemen war, Qatar is sending 1,000 troops
• Britain's RAF drones target and kill British nationals in Syria

****
**** The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen suffers its deadliest day
****


A man inspects the rubble of a house destroyed by a Saudi airstrike in Sanaa on Monday (AP)

United Arab Emirates (UAE) is just ending three days of mourning and
more than 45 soldiers from UAE, 5 from Bahrain and 10 from Saudi
Arabia were killed in Yemen on Friday, in the deadliest day so far for
Saudi-led military campaign against Houthis in Yemen. A Houthi
missile attack hit an ammunition dump about 120 kilometers east the
capital city Sanaa, killing the soldiers.

The Iranian-backed Shia ethnic Houthi militias seized Sanaa last
September, forcing the president Saudi-backed Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi
to flee to the south to the port city of Aden, Yemen's second largest
city. The Houthi militias then swept south, first capturing Taiz, the
third largest city, and continuing to the south to Aden. Hadi was
forced to flee to Saudi Arabia as a government in exile.

A Saudi-led coalition began airstrikes in Yemen on March 26. At that
time, the Saudis announced that they expected to defeat the Houthis
without any Saudi ground troops, although UAE ground troops have been
deployed. There have been occasional reports of Saudi troops in
Yemen, but they've all been denied. The announcement that Saudi and
other coalition troops were killed in Yemen on Friday is significant
not only because of the casualties, but also because it's the first
open admission that there have been Saudi troops fighting in Yemen.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pledged to quickly avenge the
deaths of their soldiers. Both Saudi and UAE warplanes pounded
Houthi targets with heavy airstrikes over the weekend.

According to one UAE official, "They were Emirati and Arab heroes as
well. ... The martyrdom of our servicemen in Yemen is a symbol of
sacrifice and reflects our high values that call for solidarity with
Arab brothers." VOA and Gulf News and Emirates 24/7

****
**** In major escalation in Yemen war, Qatar is sending 1,000 troops
****

In what is described as a major escalation in the war in Yemen, Qatar
is significantly increasing its involvement in the war by deploying
about 1,000 ground troops backed by armored vehicles and Apache
helicopters. The crown prince of Abu Dhabi announced the deployment,
and related it to the deaths of dozens of coalition soldiers on
Friday, highlighted with nationalism and xenophobia:

<QUOTE>"Our armed forces ... are more resolved and determined
to liberate Yemen and flush out the scum after the tragic
incident."<END QUOTE>

Although Qatar has taken part in the air campaign, this will be the
first time that Qatari troops have entered Yemen. Al Jazeera and Gulf News and Reuters

****
**** Britain's RAF drones target and kill British nationals in Syria
****

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron said on Monday that Royal Air
Force (RAF) drones in Syria had targeted and killed three British
nationals who, he said, had joined the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and were planning terrorist attacks on British
soil.

Cameron said that the strikes did not require the approval of
Parliament because it was an act of "self-defense" for which there was
a "clear legal basis." He said, "We should be under no illusion.
Their intention was the murder of British citizens. So on this
occasion we ourselves took action." He added:

<QUOTE>"My first duty as Prime Minister is to keep the
British people safe. That is what I will always do. There was a
terrorist directing murder on our streets and no other means to
stop them. This Government does not for one moment take these
decisions lightly.

But I am not prepared to stand here in the aftermath of a
terrorist attack on our streets and have to explain why I did not
take the chance to prevent it when I could have
done."<END QUOTE>

The announcement comes amid speculation that Cameron is preparing the
ground for a military intervention in Syria. Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Sanaa, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Taiz, Aden, Qatar,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Britain, David Cameron, Syria

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Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> If you think Trump would be a worst case scenario for president;
> what candidates do you think would be best-case leaders?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

> It's not my job to select among presidential candidates, but when
> someone stokes xenophobia and hatred by referring to Mexicans as
> rapists and murderers, then I felt a need to comment on
> it.

I'd like to amend this answer. My criterion for a presidential
candidate is whether he knows what's going on in the world. Obama
doesn't. Trump doesn't. Who does?

I don't know, but I would assume that Hillary Clinton does because her
husband was in the White House for eight years, and I assume Jeb Bush
does because both his father and his brother were in the White House
for 4/8 years. Other than that, I have no idea.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 6-Sep-15 World View -- Russia may be building a new military base in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia may be building a new military base in Syria
• The cost of repudiating the Truman Doctrine

****
**** Russia may be building a new military base in Syria
****


Russian soldiers

In what is potentially a major escalation in the growing sectarian
wars in the Mideast, intelligence officials are saying that Russia
appears to be building a new military base in Syria, in the
Mediterranean port city of Latakia, with an airfield and prefabricated
housing units for up to 1,000 personnel.

Images and videos are emerging that show Syrian and Russian combat
troops fighting alongside each other, with troops shouting orders to
one another in Russian. According to one unnamed intelligence
official:

<QUOTE>"If they're moving people in to help the Syrian
government fight their own fight, that's one thing. But if
they're moving in ground forces and dropping bombs on populated
areas, that's an entirely different matter."<END QUOTE>

Russia justifies its military intervention in support of the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad because of the rise of the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), without mentioning that
Russia, Iran and al-Assad are directly responsible for the rise of
ISIS, by conducting a genocidal campaign against innocent Sunni women
and children, after they peacefully protested in 2011.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is strong strongly disapproving of
the Russian action. According to a statement by the State Dept.:

<QUOTE>"The secretary made clear that if such reports were
accurate, these actions could further escalate the conflict, lead
to greater loss of innocent life, increase refugee flows and risk
confrontation with the anti-ISIL coalition operating in
Syria."<END QUOTE>

The statement makes it clear that, unless Russia desists, then the US
will treat the situation harshly and issue another statement.

As I've been writing for many, many months, there is no war of Muslims
versus Christians. The war in the Mideast and Asia is Muslims versus
Muslims, with the number of Christians killed minuscule compared to
the number of Muslims killed. As I've said many times, this Muslim
versus Muslim war is going to engulf the whole region, and will pull
in the rest of the world.

Well, Dear Reader, guess what? If it's true that Russian troops are
fighting alongside Syrian troops against Sunni militants, then we have
the first war of Muslims versus Christians. This is a generational
Awakening era, where increasingly nationalist and xenophobic
populations are willing to start and escalate wars, with no fear of
the consequences. You can be certain that this will only escalate.
Telegraph (London) and Reuters

****
**** The cost of repudiating the Truman Doctrine
****

I've written many times about the Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial
today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small
military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end
up having an enormous conflict like World War II. Every president
since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including
George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the
Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.

The Truman Doctrine has always been heavily criticized, but it's done
much to preserve peace for decades. Now, since 2011, we see in full
fury what happens to the world without a policeman.

Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, Russia's support has been
essential to the survival of al-Assad. Al-Assad, a member of the
Alawite/Shia religious group, began using heavy weapons on peaceful
Sunni Muslim demonstrators. He's flattened entire Sunni villages with
Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into
exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed hundreds with Sarin gas, and he
continues to kill countless more with barrel bombs loaded with
explosives, metals, and chlorine gas dropped from helicopters.

Al-Assad's genocidal sectarian attack on Sunnis caused the formation
of Iraqi rebel groups, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA). But it
also triggered a worldwide tsunami of young men from around the world
traveling to Syria to fight against al-Assad, joining the al-Qaeda
linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), and causing the creation of
ISIS.

Al-Assad predicted a quick victory in 2012, and that might have
happened if his only enemy had been the FSA. But he began to suffer
defeats at the hands of al-Nusra and ISIS, and his regime could only
continue with the help of a massive supply of heavy weapons from
Russia, fighters from Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC),
and fighters from the Lebanon-based Iran-back terror group Hezbollah.

But even with all that massive support from other countries, the
al-Assad regime has been losing the war against al-Nusra and ISIS, so
that now he's apparently going to need Christian Russian troops to
support him.

All of this has happened as a consequence of Barack Obama's
repudiation of the Truman Doctrine. It's too late to do anything now,
but with no policeman, al-Assad was able to conduct his Sunni
extermination campaign in 2011. The most damaging example of all was
Obama's flip-flop about the "red line" of al-Assad's use of chemical
weapons, which, combined with America's total withdrawal from Iraq,
signaled to all sides in the Mideast that they were free to kill
anyone they wanted with impunity. It's as if all the policemen were
withdrawn from New York City, and then everyone expressed surprised
when the city exploded in multiple gang wars.

We've had seven years of a president with absolutely no clue what's
going on in the world, and it's been a disaster. We have no need for
eight years of another president who has no clue what's going on in
the world. And by that I also mean that we have no need for a
president whose idea of foreign policy is to stoke nationalism,
xenophobia and hatred by repeatedly suggesting that all Mexicans are
rapists and murderers, which is about as disastrous a policy as
possible.

Nor do I accept anyone's claim that the president can hire a staff of
experts who will tell him what to do. President Obama has repeatedly
ignored the advice of army generals and other experts, because he
believes that he's always the smartest person in the room, no matter
who else is in the room. So the claim about hiring a staff of experts
is just an excuse for not knowing anything. In the meantime, the
situation in Mideast worsens every day, and the nicest thing that
anyone can say about American foreign policy in the Mideast is that
it's totally incoherent.

I hear a lot of rhetoric and hot air by politicians on all sides, as
long as I can stand listening to it, but I'm waiting to see if there's
anyone who actually knows what's going on. I'm afraid I'm going to
have to wait a long time.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Latakia, Russia, Bashar al-Assad,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Iran, Hezbollah

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The Truman Doctrine was already eroding during the Bush 43 administration. In reaction to the 9/11 attacks, Bush was only a half assed policeman. By his second term, he effectively gave up. This is no surprise. The Truman Doctrine was inherently doomed.

Let's do a thought experiment. Let's apply the Truman Doctrine to the Rhineland in 1936. Do we really believe that the US would have done whatever it took to exclude the Wehrmacht forces from the Rhineland? Or, would we have simply, after exhausting whatever negotiations, and, making some statements along the lines of "nothing is either on or off the table," ultimately done nothing?

How many times, since the end of WW2, have we failed to "do whatever it takes" to enforce The Doctrine? In some cases, we would have had to go nuclear to do it. Yeah I know, shades of some of CH86' more drastic notions. But he is not completely off base. Granted, I would not advocate nuking Muslim cities, etc. But I can think of a number of red lines that we allowed to be crossed under the Truman Doctrine and more recently, as it was proven to be a Paper Tiger. Therefore, a recalibration is needed. Perhaps not to the extreme of the CH86 way, but in that general direction.

And mark these worlds, we will see precisely such a recalibration as the Silent/Boomer way of doing things fades, and the Xer/Millie (emphasis on the latter generation) way of doing things takes the stage.

*** 9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's army starts 'The Martyr's Right' operation in North Sinai
• Turkey's troops enter northern Iraq to hunt PKK after terror attacks
• Violence spreads in cities across Turkey
• Pro-government mobs in Turkey storm Hurriyet offices for alleged Erdogan misquote
• Turkey appears to be approaching civil war

****
**** Egypt's army starts 'The Martyr's Right' operation in North Sinai
****


Egyptian military vehicle in Northern Sinai (Reuters)

Egypt's army has begun a new operation called "The Martyr's Right" in
North Sinai, and reports that 29 terrorists were killed on Tuesday,
the first day of the campaign. The target was the terror group Ansar
Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which
has conducted numerous attacks in Egypt's Sinai, along the border with
Israel and Gaza, and last year changed its name to "Sinai Province,"
meaning "Sinai Province of Islamic State," when it repudiated its
allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

In July, Sinai Province conducted simultaneous coordinated terror
attacks at 15 different locations in Northern Sinai, causing Egypt to
declare that it was in "a state of war." Shortly after that, Egypt's
military conducted a massive military operation against the group, and
declared that it had brought the Sinai 100% under control.

The Martyr's Right campaign is the largest military operation in North
Sinai since then. According to Egypt's Major general Mohamed Ali
Belal, the operation is based on new information, and is supported by
the Bedouin tribes in the area:

<QUOTE>"A comprehensive campaign has been launched based on
an estimation of the situation and fresh information about many
hideouts and targets. Such campaigns are undertaken with a clear
plan ... and with a timeframe. ...

Tribes largely support this operation, [but] tribes are not
playing a direct role in the operation."<END QUOTE>

The operation comes days after the Sinai Province released a video
documenting its attacks on the military in Sinai, including footage of
a wire-guided missile strike that destroyed a navy vessel. ( "17-Jul-15 World View -- ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship amid Suez Canal expansion"
.) That attack was seen at the time as a major
escalation by the terrorists. Al Ahram (Cairo) and AFP

****
**** Turkey's troops enter northern Iraq to hunt PKK after terror attacks
****

It's hard to think of any phrase that better describes what's been
going on in Turkey for the last few weeks other than "is descending
into civil war."

On Sunday, a roadside bomb attack in southeastern Turkey killed 16
Turkish soldiers, and another bombing on Tuesday killed 14 Turkish
policemen. Both bombings are blamed on the separatist terror group
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey and the PKK fought an off and
on civil war for almost four decades, but finally agreed to a
ceasefire in 2012. On July 20, there was a massive terrorist attack in the town of Suruç,
and on July
23, Turkey declared war on PKK.

In response to the terror attacks, Turkey launched dozens of
airstrikes on PKK camps in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq for
the first time since the 2012 ceasefire. Then on Tuesday, Turkish
ground troops entered northern Iraq on Tuesday for the first time
since 2011, conducting what an official termed a "short-term"
operation to hunt PKK terrorists behind attacks on Turkish soldiers
and police.

These attacks on northern Iraq have presented a problem for the United
States, because the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern
Iraq, which governs the civilian Kurdish population in northern Iraq,
and has been a U.S. ally in fighting against ISIS, has complained that
the Turkish airstrikes are killing civilians. Zaman (Turkey) and VOA and Turkish Weekly

****
**** Violence spreads in cities across Turkey
****

The rapidly escalating conflict between PKK terrorists and Turkish
security forces has triggered violence across Turkey. A number of
anti-terror marches in Turkey turned violent when supporters of the
pro-government Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) attacked the
headquarters and local offices of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic
Party (HDP).

Dozens of demonstrators pelted the HDP headquarters in Ankara with
stones, while in another city, an angry mob of 150 people set fire to
four shops owned by Kurdish businessmen.

In another city, 500 people marched through a neighborhood populated
by Kurdish seasonal workers, and began attacking homes and setting
some on fire.

An incident that went viral was triggered when a Kurdish man posted on
Facebook a picture of himself wearing the uniform of the peshmerga
military force of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), alongside
the message, "It is an honor to wear this uniform." The man was
tracked down, beaten up, stripped, and forced to kiss a statue of
Atatürk (the founder of modern Turkey). Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Bloomberg and Hurriyet

****
**** Pro-government mobs in Turkey storm Hurriyet offices for alleged Erdogan misquote
****

An angry mob of nearly 100 people tried to storm the Istanbul
offices of the daily newspaper Hurriyet on Tuesday. They did not get
past a police barricade, but they smashed windows with sticks and
stones.

The attack was triggered by a complaint by President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan that Hurriyet had tweeted a news story on Sunday that
distorted his words. The story referred to the recent PKK terrorist
attack that killed 14 police officers. Hurriyet quoted Erdogan as
saying that the attack would not have occurred if Erdogan's AKP party
had won more Parliament seats in the recent elections.

The attack on Hurriyet's offices was blamed on incitement by a group
of internet trolls supporting the AKP. Zaman (Turkey) and Zaman

****
**** Turkey appears to be approaching civil war
****

The anger and violence between nationalists and Kurds in cities across
Turkey seems to be growing worse, and has done so steadily ever since
Erdogan declared war on the PKK in July, ending the 2012 ceasefire.

I've been writing for many months that the Mideast is headed for a new
sectarian and ethnic war, and particularly this year that the entire
Mideast appears to be deteriorating into war. (See for example "19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal"
.)

In just the past few days, we've seen the Yemen civil war escalate
with the planned deployment of 1,000 Qatari troops, we've seen plans
by Russia to deploy Russian troops to Syria, making it for the first
time a war between Muslims and Christians, and we've seen the
continuing flood of 11 million Syrian refugees into other countries,
including the countries of Europe.

Now we have a new element -- a growing war in Turkey between ethnic
Turks and Kurds. This is part of the overall trend, and brings us
another step closer to all out-war throughout the entire Mideast.
Hurriyet (Turkey)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Martyr's Right, Northern Sinai,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Sinai Province, Suez Canal,
Turkey, Iraq, Kandil Mountains, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
peshmerga, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, Atatürk,
Nationalist Movement Party, MHP, Peoples' Democratic Party, HDP,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Hurriyet

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*** 10-Sep-15 World View -- Israel reopens its embassy in Cairo Egypt after four years

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel reopens its embassy in Cairo Egypt after four years
• Four more Arab countries join war in Yemen with ground troops

****
**** Israel reopens its embassy in Cairo Egypt after four years
****


Friday, Sept 9, 2011: Egyptian protesters attack the Israeli embassy in Cairo and burn the Israeli flag (AP)

Israel and Egypt announced on Wednesday that Israel will
reopen its embassy in Cairo Egypt, four years after the last
embassy was closed on September 9, 2011.

The closure was triggered by an event that occurred in August
of that year. Palestinian terrorists launched an attack on
Israel from Egyptian soil in North Sinai. In the gunfight
that followed, five Egyptian policemen were shot by Israeli
forces.

This was the year of the "Arab Awakening." The government of
Hosni Mubarak had been overthrown, and many people in Egypt
were calling for the abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty
that Israel and Egypt had signed. At the same time,
there was a big escalation in violence between Israel versus
Hamas in Gaza. Rockets from Gaza were striking Israel and
Israeli warplanes were striking targets in Gaza, both on
an almost daily basis.

On September 9, hundreds of Egyptians stormed the Israeli embassy,
ransacking the building, and burning the Israeli flag. Egypt's
government declared a state of emergency, and promised to prosecute
those responsible for the violence. Israel responded by closing the
embassy and withdrawing the embassy staff from Egypt.

During the last four years, many things have happened that have
actually drawn Egypt and Israel closer together. Terrorism in North
Sinai has continued and grown, threatening both countries, and giving
the two countries a joint role in fighting it. The July 2013 army
coup that overthrew Egypt's elected president, Mohamed Morsi, and
expelled his Muslim Brotherhood government, was followed by a long
purge of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, with thousands tortured,
jailed or killed. Since Hamas was an offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood, Egypt and Israel were allied in opposing Hamas in Gaza.
During last summer's 60-day war between Gaza and Israel, many people
believed that Egypt was on Israel's side.

A new embassy building will be built, but the location has not been
officially disclosed for security reasons. In the meantime, the
Israeli ambassador will execute his duties from his residence in
Egypt.

In June, Egypt appointed a new ambassador to Israel to fill a post
left vacant since Morsi ousted the previous envoy in 2012. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Al Bawaba (21-Aug-2011) and Reuters

****
**** Four more Arab countries join war in Yemen with ground troops
****


Moroccan troops are deploying to Yemen (Morocco News)

As we reported two days ago,
Qatar
is sending 1,000 troops to join the Saudi-led coalition fighting the
Iran-back Houthis in Yemen, joining troops already on the ground from
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Qatar's
announcement was considered to be a major escalation in the Yemen war.

It's now emerging that Morocco, Sudan, Jordan and Kuwait will also be
sending ground troops into Yemen. By the end of the week, nine
coalition members are expected to have forces fighting on the ground
alongside Saudi troops. In addition to Qatar's 1000 troops, Egypt
will be sending 800 troops armed with tanks and military transport
vehicles.

According to a senior Egyptian military source: "We have sent these
forces as part of Egypt's prominent role in this alliance. ... The
alliance fights for the sake of our brotherly Arab states, and the
death of any Egyptian soldier would be an honor and considered
martyrdom for the sake of innocent people."

It seems that barely a day goes by without some news about the growing
war that's engulfing the entire Mideast. International Business Times and Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Egypt, North Sinai, Hamas, Gaza,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Yemen, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Morocco, Sudan, Jordan,
Kuwait

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