Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This seems like a perfectly reasonable, logical position to take, but
it really isn't true, and probably has never been true at any place
and time in history. Huge waves of migration have always occurred, at
all times and places, and there's no way to stop them.

This is the problem with the position of boomer ideologues like yourself. Most Xers and Millies think your notion that America and Europe should always be peace-loving nations to be delusional and naïve. The younger generations deeply resent boomers for shoving Clintonian human rights ideology down their throats. I keep mentioning 9/11 and the hypothetical suggestion of nuking Muslim cities in retaliation after 9/11 because we in the younger generations considered the response that actually was implemented to have been a weak response, both at the time and still today. It was a weak response because it enshrined a defensive, and peacekeeping/policing strategy in the subsequent war on terror. An offensive and punitive retaliatory strategy would have made America a "feared-nation" by the rest of the world and would have facilitated the expansion of American influence by military conquest, deterrence, and the principle of the balance of terror. Not Retaliating against muslim civilian populations ensured that foreign powers would see us as weaklings who fight for "weak" principles as such being at war only with the "guilty", it thus encouraged islamists and more powerful potential enemies like Russia, China, and Iran to continue to make inroads against American interests.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> So John you think that Putin and/or Xi would start what they think
> would be a limited war, when in fact they would unknowingly be
> starting a total war?

That's certainly one of the likeliest scenarios. Neither Xi or Putin
has any idea what he's doing.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

> This seems like a perfectly reasonable, logical position to take, but
> it really isn't true, and probably has never been true at any place
> and time in history. Huge waves of migration have always occurred, at
> all times and places, and there's no way to stop them.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> This is the problem with the position of boomer ideologues like
> yourself. Most Xers and Millies think your notion that America and
> Europe should always be peace-loving nations to be delusional and
> naïve. The younger generations deeply resent boomers for shoving
> Clintonian human rights ideology down their throats. I keep
> mentioning 9/11 and the hypothetical suggestion of nuking Muslim
> cities in retaliation after 9/11 because we in the younger
> generations considered the response that actually was implemented
> to have been a weak response, both at the time and still today. It
> was a weak response because it enshrined a defensive, and
> peacekeeping/policing strategy in the subsequent war on terror. An
> offensive and punitive retaliatory strategy would have made
> America a "feared-nation" by the rest of the world and would have
> facilitated the expansion of American influence by military
> conquest, deterrence, and the principle of the balance of
> terror. Not Retaliating against muslim civilian populations
> ensured that foreign powers would see us as weaklings who fight
> for "weak" principles as such being at war only with the "guilty",
> it thus encouraged islamists and more powerful potential enemies
> like Russia, China, and Iran to continue to make inroads against
> American interests.

The problem with Xers and Millies like yourself is that you assume
that everything that Boomers say and do is completely full of crap, so
you adopt a strategy of always doing the opposite. Since Boomers are
right more often than they're wrong, that means that Xers and Millies
are wrong more often than they're right, which is certainly pretty
obvious from what's going on in the world today.

There's nothing ideological about what I wrote. I said there's no way
to stop mass migrations, and there isn't. I might have said that
there's no way to stop hurricanes and typhoons, and that wouldn't have
been ideological either.

Your solution about nuking Muslim cities is laughable. Apart from
starting a few wars, apart from making the US a historical pariah, it
would also generate massive refugee migrations much larger than those
occurring right now.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The problem with (some) Xers and Millies ... is that (they) assume that everything that Boomers say and do is completely full of crap, so (they) adopt a strategy of always doing the opposite. Since Boomers are right more often than they're wrong, that means that Xers and Millies are wrong more often than they're right, which is certainly pretty obvious from what's going on in the world today.

The Boom generation has its political and cultural rifts. Some are arch-reactionaries; some are liberals and moderates. But such is as one would expect in any generation. Ethnicity and religious heritage still matter greatly in America. A black Boomer who is no "Uncle Tom" typically has far more in common with a black member of Generation X than with a white, conservative Boomer.

Some Boomers, to the surprise of nobody, are much more often wrong than right. George W. Bush will surely prove one of the worst Presidents in American history for his incompetent stewardship of the economy, for failing to act against al-Qaeda before September 11, for starting a war in Iraq on specious grounds, letting the un-elected partisan hack Karl Rove exercise political power outside the strictures of the Constitution, and a bungled response to a natural disaster. Is this partisan sniping on my part? Hardly. I see Ronald Reagan as the 20th-century equivalent of Andrew Jackson for reshaping American political life; one loves him or hates him for that. The elder Bush would have never made the mistakes that his son did.

There's nothing ideological about what I wrote. I said there's no way to stop mass migrations, and there isn't. I might have said that there's no way to stop hurricanes and typhoons, and that wouldn't have been ideological either.

Political crises, religious or ethnic persecutions, or crop failures have turned settled populations into refugees in the past. Human nature has changed little from antiquity; almost nobody accepts an untimely death without resisting it. Flight from Daesh or North Korea (China has its own refugee crisis) is a consequence of human nature meeting extreme, pointless, life-threatening situations. If you think that the current refugee crises are bad, then just wait until you see those that global warming inundates or desertifies prime farmland now feeding large populations of peasant farmers who now just barely make it. But I digress on that.

(I can say nothing more about the crazy proposals of "Cynic Hero" except that the most dangerous role in history for any American polity is to become the new Evil Empire).

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> George W. Bush will surely prove one of the worst Presidents in
> American history for his incompetent stewardship of the economy,
> for failing to act against al-Qaeda before September 11, for
> starting a war in Iraq on specious grounds, ...

I generally hate arguing about this antedeluvian stuff, but I'm in a
mood this morning, so I'm going to do a little.

• "incompetent stewardship of the economy" -- This charge is the
  usual situation of liberals making up facts as they go along. The
  Nasdaq crash occurred in 2000, the last year of the Clinton
  administration, so Clinton would be to blame for the devastating
  Nasdaq crash.
  
  The budget surplus turned to deficit in 2000, so that also would be
  Clinton's fault.
  
  So Clinton's liberal policies created a disastrous economy that Bush
  inherited. So it's Clinton's fault, not Bush's fault. Clinton's
  liberal policies caused all the economy problems in the Bush
  administration.
  
  I wrote an analysis of the economy during the Bush years earlier this
  year:
  
  ** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge
  ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...02.htm#e150202
  
  
  
• "for failing to act against al-Qaeda before September 11" -- This
  one is really hilarious. Liberals blame Bush for starting a war, but
  then blame Bush for not starting a war earlier. It reminds me that in
  2007, Biden wanted to withdraw all American troops from Iraq, and then
  move them into Sudan to fight in the Darfur war. Liberals are total
  idiots.
  
  
  
  
• "for starting a war in Iraq on specious grounds" -- Another stupidity
  by liberals, who are not able to grasp the logical contradiction: The only
  reason we know today that Saddam wasn't developing WMDs is because
  of the Iraq ground invasion.
  
  Let's start with Saddam Hussein's use of WMDs in 1988. Recall that
  that triggered the sanctions against Iraq, and when Saddam refused
  inspections, triggered the massive daily bombings of Iraq during the
  Clinton administration. Clinton and everyone else were convinced that
  Saddam had WMDs and was developing more, so the bombing campaign
  continued into the Bush administration, eventually leading to the 2003
  ground invasion.
  
  In 2003, the only major world leader saying that Saddam had no WMDs
  was Jacques Chirac. But it later turned out Chirac's family was
  receiving millions of dollars in kickbacks from the oil for food
  program. So Chirac really didn't care if Saddam killed millions of
  people with WMDs, as long as Chirac got his money.
  
  An interesting question is why Obama voted against the war. I can't
  recall ever hearing an explanation. And since he went on Jay Leno's
  Tonight Show in 2012 and admitted that he was baffled by his
  daughter's 7th grade math homework, in my opinion he can't have any
  credible opinion about what Saddam was actually doing. I think that
  Obama has to answer the question about why he was so freely willing to
  allow Saddam to kill millions of people just for some ideological
  purpose. I already know what the answer is: He spent 20 years
  listening to Reverend Jeremiah Wright scream, "God DAMN America! God
  DAMN America! God DAMN America!", and drew conclusions from that.
  
  And that brings us back to today, where Obama took no steps to stop
  Assad, even flip-flopping on the Sarin "red line," with the result
  that ISIS was created, and that now there are 11 million Syrian
  refugees, in one of the greatest disasters since WW II. Obama didn't
  care about Saddam killing millions of people, and he doesn't care
  about Assad creating 11 million refugees. At least Obama is
  consistent with his priorities.
  
  So it's clear that Bush was right more often than he was wrong, and
  that Obama is consistently wrong.
  
  Obama is the best example of the principle that I stated in my last
  message -- Obama's foreign policy is to ask what Bush would do, and
  then do the opposite. It's been one stupid decision after another,
  and it's been a disaster.

One more point about the Iraq war, and the liberals' logical
deficiencies.

Everyone in the world thought that Saddam was producing WMDs, and so
did the Iranians. If it hadn't been for the war, and Saddam's removal,
Iran would have pursued their own WMD program with much more vigor.

This has been obvious all along to anyone who's capable of even the
most basic logical thought, but it was confirmed a couple of months
ago by a Politico article, which refers to the year 2003:

Originally Posted by Politico

> “It is not necessary, nor do I think it is realistic, to expect
> that Iran will admit that it was conducting nuclear weapons
> research activity,” says Kelsey Davenport, director for
> nonproliferation policy at the nonpartisan Arms Control
> Association, which has supported Obama’s nuclear diplomacy.

> A central reason, sources say, is the humiliation such a
> disclosure would cause for Khamenei, who issued the October 2003
> fatwa stating that Islam forbids the production, stockpiling or
> use of weapons of mass destruction. ...

> “Khamenei will never admit that Iran conducted weapons-related
> research,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie
> Endowment for International Peace. Doing so, he said, would
> “contradict the regime’s long-standing assertion that nuclear
> weapons are against Islam.”

> http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...on-119244.html

The Politico article doesn't say so, but I think it's pretty clear
that the October 2003 fatwa (which, incidentally, has never been
confirmed) would not have been issued if it were not for the fact that
Bush could guarantee to Khamenei that Saddam definitely had no WMDs.

Otherwise, it's almost it's almost certain that Iraq and Iran would by
this time be in a major development war to develop to develop more
WMDs than the other side. Bush's action prevented that war.

On economic stewardship:



If you had invested in the stock market on March 24, 2000, you would have taken until 2006 to get your money back with valuation and dividends. But had you sold out about 2 days later you would have been out basically your commissions to the broker. By late 2007 America was back on track for the worst economic meltdown in nearly 80 years.

Dubya pushed a speculative boom based heavily upon sub-prime (that is, predatory) lending. It is the speculative boom, and not the panic that does the damage. The speculative boom devours capital that might go to better purposes like investments in plant and equipment that really do create well-paying jobs. The speculative bubble is the harm the anic is simply the mass recognition of the harm.

Who is the commie from whom I got that scathing description of how a speculative boom creates its own ruin? None other than Friedrich Hayek.

But wait -- dividends are the obvious return on investment. People ultimately invest to receive those, right? But one might as well have invested in bonds as in stocks when Dubya was President -- so long as the bonds were not tied to the housing bubble. Stock investments ought to outpace inflation, right?



Under Dubya, at most a feeble, and as events would prove, a very shaky recovery. The nominal value of the stock markets reached where things were in 2000 in 2007, but not adjusted for the modest inflation. America never fully recovered from the dot.com/Enron bust when the financial markets imploded. America has fully recovered from the Bad Bears of 2000 and 2007.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

> America has fully recovered from the Bad Bears of 2000 and 2007.

Geez. People never learn. "This time it's different."

The stock market has been exploding, with the S&P 500 Price/Earnings
ratio at an astronomically high value above 21, where the historical
average is 14, and which was down at 6 as recently as 1982. So the
stock market is in a huge bubble that will have to implode at some
point.

Even if the crash comes in the next administration, by your reasoning
it will still be Obama's fault, since he oversaw the creation of the
bubble.




** 28-Aug-15 World View -- Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...28.htm#e150828

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Geez. People never learn. "This time it's different."

Low, indeed near-zero interest rates. Nobody wants to hold onto cash when the rate of return on a passive investment is about 0%, except to make a cash purchase.

The stock market has been exploding, with the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at an astronomically high value above 21, where the historical average is 14, and which was down at 6 as recently as 1982. So the stock market is in a huge bubble that will have to implode at some point.

High by pre-1980 standards, but not so remarkable since then. In many ways we are still in the realm of Reaganomics. We are in a much more investor-friendly environment. P/E ratios go way down if we end up with the era of 10% interest rates that I remember around 1980.

Even if the crash comes in the next administration, by your reasoning it will still be Obama's fault, since he oversaw the creation of the bubble.

Maybe. But 7-year bull markets are themselves rare in economic history in anything resembling a free market.




** 28-Aug-15 World View -- Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...28.htm#e150828[/QUOTE]

(Shaking head in astonishment)

This time it is different. Of course nobody can say how it is different.

*** 25-Sep-15 World View -- Suspicions grow that PKK doing Russia's bidding in bombing Turkey's pipelines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suspicions grow that PKK doing Russia's bidding in bombing Turkey's pipelines
• Report: Repeated failures in Afghanistan reconstruction projects
• Japan's economy returns to deflation

****
**** Suspicions grow that PKK doing Russia's bidding in bombing Turkey's pipelines
****


South Caucasus Pipeline

The violence between Turkey's security forces and terrorists from the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been escalating sharply, ever since
a ceasefire agreement broke down in July, and Turkey's government
declared war on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country"
)

Since the ceasefire broke down, there have been three PKK terrorist
attacks on Turkey's oil and gas pipelines. The most recent occurred
on August 25, when an explosion occurred on the South Caucasus
Pipeline (also known as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline), which
transports natural gas from Azerbaijan, through Georgia, and into
Turkey.

Although Turkey and the PKK have been clashing off and on for
three decades, the PKK have not attacked or sabotaged Turkish
pipelines in the past. Now the timing of these attacks is
raising suspicions that Russia is taking a role in the attacks.

Russia is deploying soldiers and weapons to Syria, as we've been
reporting in recent weeks, intending to control Syria's airspace and
probably Iraq's as well, and planning to form a military alliance with
Bashar al-Assad, Iran and the PKK. Russia is also suing for an
alliance with the US and West to fight ISIS, but the West so far has
been resisting because al-Assad is a genocidal monster.

In that context, the PKK attacks on Turkey's pipelines are occurring.

The South Caucasus Pipeline that the PKK attacked on August 25 is a
direct competitor to the Turkish Stream that Russia has proposed. The
deal is currently being held up by Turkey who is negotiating for lower
prices for energy supplied by Russia. Russia and Turkey are long-time
enemies that have fought generational crisis wars with each other for
centuries. Russia supplies weapons and explosives to the PKK. So for
all of these reasons, the suspicion is growing that the PKK is doing
Russia's bidding in the pipeline attacks.

As we wrote in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast."
, events are now moving very quickly in the Mideast,
as it heads for an inevitable secular war that will engulf the whole
region. Jamestown and Rudaw (5-Sep)


****
**** Report: Repeated failures in Afghanistan reconstruction projects
****

The $110 billion in U.S. funds that's already appropriated for
reconstructing Afghanistan exceeds the value of the entire Marshall
Plan effort to rebuild Western Europe after World War II. Large
amounts of taxpayer dollars have been and continue to be lost to
waste, fraud, and abuse, according to a recent report by John
F. Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
(SIGAR). And with nearly $12 billion more in reconstruction funds
appropriated but not yet spent, and with billions more to follow,
there's little reason to hope that the outcome will be better.

According to Sopko, there have been massive US-sponsored failures.
For example:

• Spending over $8 billion on a counternarcotics effort that has
  failed by every conceivable metric;
  
• Purchasing nearly half a billion dollars' worth of planes that
  never could fly and had to be turned into scrap metal;
  
• A building that literally melted before your eyes when it rained;
  and
  
• A half a million dollar health clinic that lacked water and
  electricity and resulted in washing newborns in the nearby
  river.

The following sources of risk make it unlikely that the additional
billions in reconstruction funds will be spent any more wisely:

• Most important: widespread corruption in Afghan society and
  government entities -- also a paramount threat to the long-term
  viability of the Afghan state.
  
• Operational demands and constraints imposed by an active
  insurgency -- the Taliban, ISIS, and al-Qaeda.
  
• Afghan reluctance or inability to impose accountability,
  especially on the wealthy or well connected.

The report concludes:

<QUOTE>"We can also safely say that the struggle in
Afghanistan won't be shortened, much less, won, by official happy
talk and cheerleader-style press releases. Poor data and
assessments not based on reality but rather biased by
self-interest career advancement and rank P.R., can only lead to
unrealistic judgments, unjustified hopes, and outright fantasies
with no link to the reality on the ground faced every day by our
many brave and dedicated career diplomats, soldiers and civic
servants."<END QUOTE>

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)

****
**** Japan's economy returns to deflation
****

Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was -0.1%, the negative
value indicating that Japan is returning to deflation. The last time
that Japan's core inflation was negative was April 2013. Since then,
the Bank of Japan has been easing monetary policy significantly in the
hope of stimulating inflation, but to no avail.

Japan began going into deflation after 1990, when there was a crash on
the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and a crash in Tokyo's real estate bubble.
At the peak of the bubble, Tokyo's real estate had a nominal value
greater than all the real estate in the United States. It's amazing
that after 25 years, deflation is continuing. Japan's prime minister
Shinzo Abe said on Thursday that Japan's economy was no longer in
deflation, so he must have been disappointed to wake up on Friday
morning to the news that Japan was indeed still in deflation.

As I wrote earlier this year in "11-Mar-15 World View -- Europe, America, China economies all continue in deflationary spiral"
, the global economy is in a
deflationary spiral.

Ever since 2003, when I started writing regularly about Generational
Dynamics, I've repeatedly written that in this generational Crisis
era, Generational Dynamics is predicting a deflationary spiral.
Mainstream economists, on the other hand, have been predicting that
inflation or even hyperinflation would begin "next year" every year
since then. Mainstream economists have been dead wrong, and continue
to be wrong, while Generational Dynamics is right. Barrons and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Iraq, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
South Caucasus Pipeline, Russia, Iran, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Afghanistan, John F. Sopko,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR,
Japan, Bank of Japan, Shinzo Abe, deflationary spiral

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

<snip>
As I wrote earlier this year in "11-Mar-15 World View -- Europe, America, China economies all continue in deflationary spiral"
, the global economy is in a
deflationary spiral.

Ever since 2003, when I started writing regularly about Generational
Dynamics, I've repeatedly written that in this generational Crisis
era, Generational Dynamics is predicting a deflationary spiral.
Mainstream economists, on the other hand, have been predicting that
inflation or even hyperinflation would begin "next year" every year
since then. Mainstream economists have been dead wrong, and continue
to be wrong, while Generational Dynamics is right. Barrons and Reuters

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

Yup. So when is Yellen going to look at the St. Louis Fed's data and figure out that QE(x) isn't working? All one needs is eyeballs to see that money velocity and MZM are both pointing to deflation?

MZM = "
BREAKING DOWN 'Money Zero Maturity - MZM'

MZM has become one of the preferred measures of money supply because it better represents money readily available within the economy for spending and consumption. This measurement derives its name from its mixture of all the liquid and zero maturity money found within the three "M's."

Monetary velocity =



DEFINITION of 'Velocity Of Money'

The rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another, and how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Velocity of money is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country's total supply of money.

I think our monetary velocity reading means "the average American has no confidence in future economic prospects". Therefore, the propensity to hold on to funds is increasing.

Originally Posted by zerohedge

The ongoing oligarch theft labeled an “economic recovery” by pundits, politicians and mainstream media alike, is one of the largest frauds I’ve witnessed in my life. The reality of the situation is finally starting to hit home, and the proof is now undeniable.
Earlier this year, I published a powerful post titled, Use of Alternative Financial Services, Such as Payday Loans, Continues to Increase Despite the “Recovery,” which highlighted how a growing number of Americans have been taking out unconventional loans, not simply to overcome an emergency, but for everyday expenses. Here’s an excerpt:

Families’ savings not where they should be: That’s one part of the problem. But Mills sees something else in the recovery that’s more disturbing. The number of households tapping alternative financial services are on the rise, meaning that Americans are turning to non-bank lenders for credit: payday loans, refund-anticipation loans, pawnshops, and rent-to-own services.
According to the Urban Institute report, the number of households that used alternative credit products increased 7 percent between 2011 and 2013. And the kind of household seeking alternative financing is changing, too.
It’s not the case that every one of these middle- and upper-class households turned to pawnshops and payday lenders because they got whomped by an unexpected bill from a mechanic or a dentist. “People who are in these [non-bank] situations are not using these forms of credit to simply overcome an emergency, but are using them for basic living experiences,” Mills says.

Of course, it’s not just “alternative financial services.” Increasingly desperate American citizens are also tapping whatever retirement savings they may have, including taking the 10% tax penalty for the privilege of doing so. In fact, 30 million Americans have done just that in the past year alone, in the midst of what is supposed to be a “recovery.”
From Time:

With the effects of the financial crisis still lingering, 30 million Americans in the last 12 months tapped retirement savings to pay for an unexpected expense, new research shows. This undercuts financial security and underscores the need for every household to maintain an emergency fund.
Boomers were most likely to take a premature withdrawal as well as incur a tax penalty, according to a survey from Bankrate.com. Some 26% of those ages 50-64 say their financial situation has deteriorated, and 17% used their 401(k) plan and other retirement savings to pay for an emergency expense.
Two-thirds of Americans agree that the effects of the financial crisis are still being felt in the way they live, work, save and spend, according to a report from Allianz Life Insurance Co. One in five can be called a post-crash skeptic—a person that experienced at least six different kinds of financial setback during the recession, like a job loss or loss of home value, and feel their financial future is in peril.

So now we know what has kept meager spending afloat during this pitiful “recovery.” A combination of “alternative loans” and a bleeding of retirement accounts. The transformation of the public into a horde of broke debt serfs is almost complete.
Don’t forget to send your thank you card to you know who:

Yes, thanks "Gentle Ben" for nothing! Speaking of bears, Rags waits for next bear market with baited breath.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

Yup. So when is Yellen going to look at the St. Louis Fed's data and figure out that QE(x) isn't working? All one needs is eyeballs to see that money velocity and MZM are both pointing to deflation?

MZM = "
BREAKING DOWN 'Money Zero Maturity - MZM'

MZM has become one of the preferred measures of money supply because it better represents money readily available within the economy for spending and consumption. This measurement derives its name from its mixture of all the liquid and zero maturity money found within the three "M's."

Monetary velocity =



DEFINITION of 'Velocity Of Money'

The rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another, and how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Velocity of money is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country's total supply of money.

I think our monetary velocity reading means "the average American has no confidence in future economic prospects". Therefore, the propensity to hold on to funds is increasing.



Yes, thanks "Gentle Ben" for nothing! Speaking of bears, Rags waits for next bear market with baited breath.

People who are above median income are below replacement, in terms of fecundity. It is that subset of population who drive the most demand for essentially everything. The poor don't drive demand, they even will scrimp on essentials and at best their demand contribution tends to be flat. Furthermore, in all but the least developed countries, even the poor are below replacement. There is no way inflation can happen. At least not any time soon and perhaps no more inflation for centuries.

*** 26-Sep-15 World View -- China's military heads for Syria, supposedly to join Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive Russian military deployment into Syria and Iraq continues
• China's military heads for Syria, supposedly to join Russia

****
**** Massive Russian military deployment into Syria and Iraq continues
****


Russian SU-25 jets on runway at al-Assad airbase in Syria last week (Telegraph)

Syria has received 24 attack fighter warplanes from Russia, as well as
reconnaissance aircraft and other sophisticated military equipment.
In addition, at least 2,000 additional Russian soldiers are being sent
to Syria.

In addition, Russia is setting up offices in Baghdad to coordinate
military operations with Iran and Syria, and probably Iraq. According
to Russia, the purpose of its military buildup is to fight the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-allied
militia, on Friday explained the Russian military deployment
as follows:

<QUOTE>"The failure of America and the international
coalition to bring defeat to Daesh [ISIS] was one of the reasons
which called or pushed Russia to also come, and to get directly
involved."<END QUOTE>

Some reports indicate that the warplanes in Syria include SU-27 jets
and SA-22 air to air missiles. These weapons have no use against
ISIS, since ISIS has no air power. It's likely that these weapons are
directed at the United States coalition or at Israel.

This large Russian military deployment in Syria and Iraq, in alliance
with Iran, is going to raise alarm bells throughout the Mideast,
especially in Saudi Arabia, who see Syria and Iran as existential
threats, and in Turkey, which now sees itself isolated from its
historical allies in the Mideast. Jihadist groups, including al-Qaeda
and ISIS, will see it as a repeat of the 1980s Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan.

It's amazing how quickly things are changing in Syria. A month ago,
we were still talking about how the US-led coalition was failing at
conducting air strikes at ISIS. Today, Russia is coming close to
pushing the US-led coalition out of Syria and Iraq entirely. Fox News and Reuters and Telegraph (London)

****
**** China's military heads for Syria, supposedly to join Russia
****

Earlier this week, Chinese naval vessels have traveled through Egypt's
Suez Canal and entered the Mediterranean Sea. According to a senior
officer in the Syrian Arab Army, and confirmed by a Russian Senator,
the naval vessels are headed for Syria's Port of Tartus, and that
"China has joined [Russia's] military operation in Syria."
The reports indicate that the Chinese vessels will reach Tartus
within six weeks. No explanation is given for the long time frame.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Chinese military
cooperation with Russia in the Mideast is strongly counter to the
predicted trends. As long-time readers are aware, the prediction is
that the US and China would be the principal enemies in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, and that the US would be
allied with India, Russia and Iran, while China would be allied with
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Muslim countries.

Such a strong counter-trend development -- China joining Russia and
Iran in defense of Bashar al-Assad, Saudi Arabia's enemy -- cannot
continue indefinitely. In my opinion, there's something else going on
that's not in the news reports -- namely that it's much more likely
that China's military is entering the region to protect Saudi Arabia's
interests. China may cooperate with Russia for a while, but in my
opinion it would not take a great deal for China to turn on Russia, in
order to protect the Saudis. This will be an interesting development
to watch. Pravda (Moscow) and Al-Masdar (pro-Syria) and MINA (Macedonia)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, SU-27, SA-22, Iraq, Afghanistan,
Egypt, Suez Canal, China

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

*** 27-Sep-15 World View -- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Death toll from Hajj stampede rises to 769, triggers fatalistic explanations
• Iran rejects Fatalism, blames Saudi officials for 'crime'
• Muslims debate the role of the 'Will of Allah' in human life
• Theological contradictions in omnipotence and omniscience vs free will

****
**** Death toll from Hajj stampede rises to 769, triggers fatalistic explanations
****


View of the streets of Mina where the stampede occurred on Thursday (AP)

The worst disaster to befall the Islamic event in a quarter of a
century occurred on Thursday as two large groups of pilgrims arrived
together at a crossroads in Mina, a few kilometers outside the holy
city of Mecca.

The Hajj is a pilgrimage to Mecca that every Muslim is required to
make at least one in his lifetime. About two million Muslims from 180
countries around the world have arrived in Saudi Arabia in the past
couple of weeks for their one in a lifetime Hajj pilgrimage.

On Thursday, hundreds of thousands of pilgrims were walking towards
the site of one of the most important rituals, "stoning the devil,"
which requires throwing seven stones at a pillar representing Satan in
the city of Mina. However, when two massive crowds converged on the
same narrow street, the people in front were forced to stop, while the
ones hundreds of meters to the rear kept on walking. All of this took
place under a burning hot sun, with a temperature of 46 degrees
centigrade (= 114 degrees fahrenheit). The result was that hundreds
of pilgrims suffocated or were trampled to death. One eyewitness said
the majority of the dead people were elderly people who were walking
with their children, who were not able to leave the children behind.

Initially, Saudi officials placed the blame on the pilgrims themselves
for not following safety instructions, saying that many of the
pilgrims, were "undisciplined and did not follow instructions." One
Saudi official blamed "some pilgrims with African nationalities" for
the incident, resulting in outrage in responses like, "Anti-black,
anti-poor, xenophobic, totally outrageous yet predictable response
from the Saudi Monarchy."

Postings on many twitter accounts blamed the Saudis for poor
administration in allowing the stampede to happen. Others blamed it
simply on "human error," and supported the Saudi officials by
commending the quick work by first responders after the stampede.

The stampede incident comes just a few days after a massive
construction crane collapsed into Mecca’s Grand Mosque, killing more
than 100 people and leaving over 200 others wounded. ( "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"
)

By Friday, Saudi officials were giving Fatalistic explanations.
Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh told Saudi officials:

<QUOTE>"You are not responsible for what happened. As for
the things that humans cannot control, you are not blamed for
them. Fate and destiny are inevitable."<END QUOTE>

Arab News (Riyadh) and BBC and Reuters

****
**** Iran rejects Fatalism, blames Saudi officials for 'crime'
****

Saudi Arabia's enemy, Iran, is rejecting any claim that the stampede
was the will of Allah, and is holding Saudi officials responsible.

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani gave a long-scheduled speech to the
United Nations on Saturday, and used the speech to demand an
international investigation into the cause of "this incident and
similar incidents in this year’s Hajj rituals," referring to the crane
incident.

Iran's Prosecutor General Ebrahim Raisi said:

"We will urge international courts and circles to start the trial
of the Saudis for their crimes against hajj pilgrims. This is not
incompetence, it's a crime,"

Of the almost 800 pilgrims killed in the stampede, at least 136 were
from Iran, which was more than from any other country. Iran's Foreign
Ministry is protesting Saudi Arabia's handling of the disaster, and
said that Saudi Arabia has yet to issue visas for an Iranian
delegation to visit the kingdom to oversee the treatment of injured
Iranians and the repatriation of remains. Press TV (Tehran) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Mashable

****
**** Muslims debate the role of the 'Will of Allah' in human life
****

Fatalism is relatively uncommon in the West. It's unusual for
Westerners to blame even natural disasters on God's will.

In January 2010, evangelical Christian leader Pat Robinson was scorned
when he said that the devastating Haiti earthquake occurred because
Haiti had made "a pact with the devil" in defeating the French in
1804. He was similarly scorned linking Hurricane Katrina to abortion.

After the Lisbon earthquake of 1755, Voltaire wrote:

<QUOTE>"Would you say, seeing this heap of victims,
That God is avenged, that their death is payment for their crimes?
What crimes, what bad things have been committed by these children,
Lying on the breasts of their mothers, flattened and bloody?
Lisbon is a city no longer. Did it have more vices
Than London, than Paris, given to doubtful delights?"<END QUOTE>

However, Fatalism is expressed more commonly in the Muslim world,
according to an analysis by Daniel Pipes, following the statements by
Saudi officials to blame the stampede on Fate and Destiny.

Philosophical and theological dilemma goes like this: If humans have
the ability to make decisions, this diminishes God's universal
powers. But if God makes all decisions, humans have no responsibility
for their own deeds, negating such concepts as justice and punishment.
For centuries, there have been two main Islamic schools of thought,
one arguing for free will and one holding that God acts through man,
and the individual has no say.

Pipes says that there are many fatalistic passages in the Koran, and
gives some examples:

• Nor can a soul die except by God's leave, the term being fixed
  as by writing.
  
• All people have a set term, and when the end of that term
  approaches, they can neither delay it by a single moment, nor can they
  speed it up.
  
• No misfortune can happen on earth or in your souls but is recorded
  in a book before We bring it into existence.

My own mother, a devout Greek Orthodox Christian, said that she was a
Fatalist. She would often say that only God would decide the exact
moment of death, and that if you happen to be uttering a swear word at
the moment that God strikes you dead with lightning, they you'll go to
hell.

However, it's not all one-sided, even in Islam. Pipes also quotes a
number of Koran passages that contradict the fatalistic outlook:

• God does not wrong people at all, but it is the people
  themselves who do wrong.
  
• God does not change the condition of a people until they change
  that which is in their souls.

Pipes quotes numerous Islamic and Christian scholars throughout
history on the question of whether Islam is a Fatalistic religion.

Pipes also notes that neither activist Muslim crowds, such as those
that overthrew governments in Iran and Egypt, nor jihadists use
"Allah's will" as an excuse to sit and do nothing.

However, what Pipes finally concludes is that Muslims are no more
fatalistic than Christians, and that Muslim politicians use Fatalism
as an excuse. Thus, when something goes wrong, they blame "the will
of Allah" in the same way that President Obama might blame George Bush
or the Republicans. But when something goes right, they take all the
credit, just as any politician would. CNN (13-Jan-2010) and Middle East Forum

****
**** Theological contradictions in omnipotence and omniscience vs free will
****

In both Christian and Muslim theology, God/Allah is described as being
omnipotent (able to do anything) and omniscient (knowing everything
about the past, present and future).

Granting such powers to God yields some important conundrums and
contradictions. Can God make 1+1 equal 3? Mathematical logicians
would say even God can't create a mathematical contradiction. Can God
create both an irresistible force and an immovable object -- a
theological question that was heavily debated a century ago?

The conundrums become much more personal when they involve a human
being's free will. In the Daniel Pipes essay referenced above, he
quotes Bernard Lewis as follows:

<QUOTE>In the great debate among medieval Muslim theologians
on the question of predestination or free will, [chess and
back-gammon] sometimes served as symbols and prototypes. Is life a
game of chess, where the player has a choice at every move, where
skill and foresight can bring him success? Or is it rather
backgammon, where a modicum of skill may speed or delay the
result, but where the final outcome is determined by the repeated
throw of the dice?"<END QUOTE>

In fact, the debate over omnipotence does not lead to a theological
contraction over free will. One can say that God is omnipotent, but
that he still allows individual humans free will, and only intervenes
in human affairs at specific times for specified reasons.

But once you add omniscience to God's capabilities, then you reach a
genuine insoluble theological contradiction with free will. If God is
omniscient, and in particular knows everything that's going to happen
in the future, then there's no human free will, because it's
impossible for any human to do anything different from what God knows
is going to happen.

From the point of view of Computer Science and Mathematical Logic, we
may not have free will anyway. After all, isn't our brain just a
collection of neurons and synapses just doing what they're programmed
to do? One college professor that I had even took this concept a step
farther, and suggested that each of our brains is nothing more than a
Turing machine computer, and that God might even have inscribed each
of our computer program codes in the bones of our heads and necks,
just to be sure.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mecca, Hajj, Mina, stoning the devil,
Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi,
Daniel Pipes, Fatalism, Voltaire, Pat Robinson, Haiti, Katrina, Lisbon,
omniscience, omnipotence, free will

Permanent web link to this article
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*** 28-Sep-15 World View -- Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian leader Abbas to 'drop bombshell' in UN speech Wednesday
• Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel
• Abbas's resignation would trigger major Mideast changes

****
**** Palestinian leader Abbas to 'drop bombshell' in UN speech Wednesday
****


Mahmoud Abbas giving a speech in 2014 (EPA)

Rumors and speculation have been raging for the last couple of weeks,
ever since Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas promised
on September 17 to "drop a bombshell" at the end of the speech he'll
be giving to the United Nations on Wednesday.

The initial speculation was that Abbas would repudiate the terms of
the 1994 Oslo peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority, on the grounds that Israel has not fully complied with the
agreement, and that the agreement hasn't accomplished anything of
value, since the Israelis continue to build settlements at will, peace
negotiations have gone nowhere.

The Oslo agreement specifies that the PA is responsible for governing
and policing the West Bank. A repudiation of that agreement would
dismantle the PA and would be seen as a blow to Israel, which would
then be required to govern and police the West Bank by itself, which
would certainly result in frequent clashes between Israeli security
forces and Palestinians.

However, Israeli intelligence sources say that Abbas's associates are
vehemently opposed to dismantling the Palestinian Authority.
Dismantling the PA would also mean disconnecting the Palestinians from
the European Commission Ad Hoc Liaison Committee on assistance to the
Palestinians, which funnels over $1 billion annually to the PA's bank
account, paying the salaries of over 160,000 Palestinian employees.
Israel National News (17-Sept) and Al Monitor

****
**** Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel
****

Nonetheless, some reports indicate that Abbas will deliver an
ultimatum to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday:
Freeze the settlement building and recognize the 1967 borders as a
basis for negotiation, or the PA will hand back to Israel the
responsibility for security in the whole of the West Bank.

On September 20, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas was
quoted as saying,

<QUOTE>"I’m already old. If in two or three months’ time I
see that there’s no hope, I won’t stay in the job."<END QUOTE>

It's possible that part of Wednesday's "bombshell" announcement
will be Abbas's own resignation.

Abbas has threatened to resign several times in the past. In 2011, it
seemed resignation was almost certain, because of the repeated failure
of the "peace process," but then his personal popularity began to
increase and he started "acting like a young man again," so he didn't
resign after all.

Because year after year has gone by with no progress in negotiations
with Israel, Abbas may feel that he has nothing left to lose if he
resigns and, at the same time, delivers an ultimatum to Israel.

Although Abbas has threatened to resign in the past, but has changed
his mind each time, it's possible that this time it may actually
happen, for two good reasons.

First, he was born in 1935 and is now 80 years old, and running the PA
cannot be easy at his age, especially since he isn't accomplishing
anything.

Second, his personal popularity has been plummeting, according to a
poll conducted by Khalil Shikaki of the Palestinian Center for Policy
and Survey Research. The main findings of the poll, conducted
between September 17-19 in Gaza and the West Bank, found:

• Two-thirds of the public demand the resignation of president
  Abbas.
  
• Two thirds of the public support Hamas-Israel indirect negotiations, although a majority believes that these negotiations will
  not succeed.
  
• For the first time, a majority now demands the dissolution of the
  Palestinian Authority.

The poll found that anger at the Palestinian Authority and the Arab
world has been growing due to various factors:

• The belief that the PA prevents demonstrations against the
  Israeli occupation waged in solidarity with Jerusalem and al Aqsa
  Mosque
  
• The belief that the PA is failing to protect Palestinians against
  settlers’ terrorism in the aftermath of the settlers’ burning of the
  Dawabsha family in the village of Duma.
  
• The PA manipulation of the rules to hold a quick session for the
  Palestine National Council including the submission of fake
  resignations from the PLO Executive Committee.
  
• Political and financial corruption in the PA, shown by the recent
  leak of documents showing cases of financial corruption within the
  PA.
  
• The overwhelming majority belief that Arabs no longer care about
  the fate of the Palestinians, that Palestine is no longer the primary
  cause of the Arabs, and that Arab countries have in fact entered an
  alliance with Israel against Iran despite the continued Israeli
  occupation.

So with Palestinian attitudes turning sharply against Abbas, the
Palestinian government, and the Arabs, a "bombshell" announcement that
combines an ultimatum with resignation is considered a possibility.
Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and Al Monitor

****
**** Abbas's resignation would trigger major Mideast changes
****

The Palestinian belief that the Arab world is turning against them
refers to what I've written about several times, that the 2014 Gaza
war brought about a major Mideast realignment
, splitting the Gulf nations apart. When the Gaza war
between Israel and Hamas began last summer, Egypt supported Israel and
the Palestinian Authority, and turned against Hamas, an offshoot of
the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran and Turkey supported Hamas. This
created a de facto realignment of the Mideast, with Israel plus
Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority in alliance
versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus Iran.

Since the Gaza war, there have been other factors: the rise of the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the war in
Yemen, the rise of Iran with the nuclear accords, and now Russia's
military deployment into Syria. Whereas the "Palestinian problem"
used to be the major focus of politicians around the world, today it
rarely even appears in the headlines, with everything else going on.
As a result, the Palestinians feel abandoned not only by the Arabs,
but also by the international community.

So now, into this chaotic context, comes the possibility that Abbas
may resign. As I wrote for the first time in 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Israel-Palestinian
"peace process" can never succeed because Arabs and Israelis will be
refighting the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed
the partitioning of Palestinian and the creation of the state of
Israel.

In 2003, I wrote that it's the survivors of the 1948 war that have
prevented a war that major from occurring again. In 2003, Yassir
Arafat and Ariel Sharon, both survivors of the 1948 war, were the
respective leaders of the Palestinians and Israelis. Today, both of
them are gone, and in fact, almost every other survivor is also gone,
with Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas being the sole
major leader with personal memories of the horrors of the 1948 war.

The resignation of Abbas would bring on a major leadership crisis
among the Palestinians. Some polls indicate that his most likely
replacement would be Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, a Gen-Xer
born in 1963. This generational shift in leadership would bring major
changes to the Palestinian territories, and a great deal more conflict
with Israel. Al Monitor (22-Sept) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Hamas,
Gaza, West Bank, Oslo peace accords, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
European Commission Ad Hoc Liaison Committee,
Khalil Shikaki, Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research,
Ismail Haniyeh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 27-Sep-15 World View -- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Death toll from Hajj stampede rises to 769, triggers fatalistic explanations
• Iran rejects Fatalism, blames Saudi officials for 'crime'
• Muslims debate the role of the 'Will of Allah' in human life
• Theological contradictions in omnipotence and omniscience vs free will

****
**** Death toll from Hajj stampede rises to 769, triggers fatalistic explanations
****


View of the streets of Mina where the stampede occurred on Thursday (AP)

The worst disaster to befall the Islamic event in a quarter of a
century occurred on Thursday as two large groups of pilgrims arrived
together at a crossroads in Mina, a few kilometers outside the holy
city of Mecca.

The Hajj is a pilgrimage to Mecca that every Muslim is required to
make at least one in his lifetime. About two million Muslims from 180
countries around the world have arrived in Saudi Arabia in the past
couple of weeks for their one in a lifetime Hajj pilgrimage.

On Thursday, hundreds of thousands of pilgrims were walking towards
the site of one of the most important rituals, "stoning the devil,"
which requires throwing seven stones at a pillar representing Satan in
the city of Mina. However, when two massive crowds converged on the
same narrow street, the people in front were forced to stop, while the
ones hundreds of meters to the rear kept on walking. All of this took
place under a burning hot sun, with a temperature of 46 degrees
centigrade (= 114 degrees fahrenheit). The result was that hundreds
of pilgrims suffocated or were trampled to death. One eyewitness said
the majority of the dead people were elderly people who were walking
with their children, who were not able to leave the children behind.

Initially, Saudi officials placed the blame on the pilgrims themselves
for not following safety instructions, saying that many of the
pilgrims, were "undisciplined and did not follow instructions." One
Saudi official blamed "some pilgrims with African nationalities" for
the incident, resulting in outrage in responses like, "Anti-black,
anti-poor, xenophobic, totally outrageous yet predictable response
from the Saudi Monarchy."

Postings on many twitter accounts blamed the Saudis for poor
administration in allowing the stampede to happen. Others blamed it
simply on "human error," and supported the Saudi officials by
commending the quick work by first responders after the stampede.

The stampede incident comes just a few days after a massive
construction crane collapsed into Mecca’s Grand Mosque, killing more
than 100 people and leaving over 200 others wounded. ( "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"
)

By Friday, Saudi officials were giving Fatalistic explanations.
Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh told Saudi officials:

<QUOTE>"You are not responsible for what happened. As for
the things that humans cannot control, you are not blamed for
them. Fate and destiny are inevitable."<END QUOTE>

Arab News (Riyadh) and BBC and Reuters

****
**** Iran rejects Fatalism, blames Saudi officials for 'crime'
****

Saudi Arabia's enemy, Iran, is rejecting any claim that the stampede
was the will of Allah, and is holding Saudi officials responsible.

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani gave a long-scheduled speech to the
United Nations on Saturday, and used the speech to demand an
international investigation into the cause of "this incident and
similar incidents in this year’s Hajj rituals," referring to the crane
incident.

Iran's Prosecutor General Ebrahim Raisi said:

"We will urge international courts and circles to start the trial
of the Saudis for their crimes against hajj pilgrims. This is not
incompetence, it's a crime,"

Of the almost 800 pilgrims killed in the stampede, at least 136 were
from Iran, which was more than from any other country. Iran's Foreign
Ministry is protesting Saudi Arabia's handling of the disaster, and
said that Saudi Arabia has yet to issue visas for an Iranian
delegation to visit the kingdom to oversee the treatment of injured
Iranians and the repatriation of remains. Press TV (Tehran) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Mashable

****
**** Muslims debate the role of the 'Will of Allah' in human life
****

Fatalism is relatively uncommon in the West. It's unusual for
Westerners to blame even natural disasters on God's will.

In January 2010, evangelical Christian leader Pat Robinson was scorned
when he said that the devastating Haiti earthquake occurred because
Haiti had made "a pact with the devil" in defeating the French in
1804. He was similarly scorned linking Hurricane Katrina to abortion.

After the Lisbon earthquake of 1755, Voltaire wrote:

<QUOTE>"Would you say, seeing this heap of victims,
That God is avenged, that their death is payment for their crimes?
What crimes, what bad things have been committed by these children,
Lying on the breasts of their mothers, flattened and bloody?
Lisbon is a city no longer. Did it have more vices
Than London, than Paris, given to doubtful delights?"<END QUOTE>

However, Fatalism is expressed more commonly in the Muslim world,
according to an analysis by Daniel Pipes, following the statements by
Saudi officials to blame the stampede on Fate and Destiny.

Philosophical and theological dilemma goes like this: If humans have
the ability to make decisions, this diminishes God's universal
powers. But if God makes all decisions, humans have no responsibility
for their own deeds, negating such concepts as justice and punishment.
For centuries, there have been two main Islamic schools of thought,
one arguing for free will and one holding that God acts through man,
and the individual has no say.

Pipes says that there are many fatalistic passages in the Koran, and
gives some examples:

• Nor can a soul die except by God's leave, the term being fixed
  as by writing.
• All people have a set term, and when the end of that term
  approaches, they can neither delay it by a single moment, nor can they
  speed it up.
• No misfortune can happen on earth or in your souls but is recorded
  in a book before We bring it into existence.

My own mother, a devout Greek Orthodox Christian, said that she was a
Fatalist. She would often say that only God would decide the exact
moment of death, and that if you happen to be uttering a swear word at
the moment that God strikes you dead with lightning, they you'll go to
hell.

However, it's not all one-sided, even in Islam. Pipes also quotes a
number of Koran passages that contradict the fatalistic outlook:

• God does not wrong people at all, but it is the people
  themselves who do wrong.
• God does not change the condition of a people until they change
  that which is in their souls.

Pipes quotes numerous Islamic and Christian scholars throughout
history on the question of whether Islam is a Fatalistic religion.

Pipes also notes that neither activist Muslim crowds, such as those
that overthrew governments in Iran and Egypt, nor jihadists use
"Allah's will" as an excuse to sit and do nothing.

However, what Pipes finally concludes is that Muslims are no more
fatalistic than Christians, and that Muslim politicians use Fatalism
as an excuse. Thus, when something goes wrong, they blame "the will
of Allah" in the same way that President Obama might blame George Bush
or the Republicans. But when something goes right, they take all the
credit, just as any politician would. CNN (13-Jan-2010) and Middle East Forum

****
**** Theological contradictions in omnipotence and omniscience vs free will
****

In both Christian and Muslim theology, God/Allah is described as being
omnipotent (able to do anything) and omniscient (knowing everything
about the past, present and future).

Granting such powers to God yields some important conundrums and
contradictions. Can God make 1+1 equal 3? Mathematical logicians
would say even God can't create a mathematical contradiction. Can God
create both an irresistible force and an immovable object -- a
theological question that was heavily debated a century ago?

The conundrums become much more personal when they involve a human
being's free will. In the Daniel Pipes essay referenced above, he
quotes Bernard Lewis as follows:

<QUOTE>In the great debate among medieval Muslim theologians
on the question of predestination or free will, [chess and
back-gammon] sometimes served as symbols and prototypes. Is life a
game of chess, where the player has a choice at every move, where
skill and foresight can bring him success? Or is it rather
backgammon, where a modicum of skill may speed or delay the
result, but where the final outcome is determined by the repeated
throw of the dice?"<END QUOTE>

In fact, the debate over omnipotence does not lead to a theological
contraction over free will. One can say that God is omnipotent, but
that he still allows individual humans free will, and only intervenes
in human affairs at specific times for specified reasons.

But once you add omniscience to God's capabilities, then you reach a
genuine insoluble theological contradiction with free will. If God is
omniscient, and in particular knows everything that's going to happen
in the future, then there's no human free will, because it's
impossible for any human to do anything different from what God knows
is going to happen.

From the point of view of Computer Science and Mathematical Logic, we
may not have free will anyway. After all, isn't our brain just a
collection of neurons and synapses just doing what they're programmed
to do? One college professor that I had even took this concept a step
farther, and suggested that each of our brains is nothing more than a
Turing machine computer, and that God might even have inscribed each
of our computer program codes in the bones of our heads and necks,
just to be sure.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mecca, Hajj, Mina, stoning the devil,
Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi,
Daniel Pipes, Fatalism, Voltaire, Pat Robinson, Haiti, Katrina, Lisbon,
omniscience, omnipotence, free will

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

The Hajj has really gotten out of hand. Way too many people trying to do too much in too short a time. Not sure how to solve it. The constraints are the end of Ramadan, Islamic New Year and lunar cycle counting. Ultimately, however, it is humans doing an interpretation combined with force of custom. Probably the only solution would be to say, the Hajj period will be lengthened by one lunar cycle, adding ~ 4 weeks. That would allow staggering of activities and lessen the crush of so many people through the choke points.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 28-Sep-15 World View -- Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian leader Abbas to 'drop bombshell' in UN speech Wednesday
• Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel
• Abbas's resignation would trigger major Mideast changes

****
**** Palestinian leader Abbas to 'drop bombshell' in UN speech Wednesday
****


Mahmoud Abbas giving a speech in 2014 (EPA)

Rumors and speculation have been raging for the last couple of weeks,
ever since Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas promised
on September 17 to "drop a bombshell" at the end of the speech he'll
be giving to the United Nations on Wednesday.

The initial speculation was that Abbas would repudiate the terms of
the 1994 Oslo peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority, on the grounds that Israel has not fully complied with the
agreement, and that the agreement hasn't accomplished anything of
value, since the Israelis continue to build settlements at will, peace
negotiations have gone nowhere.

The Oslo agreement specifies that the PA is responsible for governing
and policing the West Bank. A repudiation of that agreement would
dismantle the PA and would be seen as a blow to Israel, which would
then be required to govern and police the West Bank by itself, which
would certainly result in frequent clashes between Israeli security
forces and Palestinians.

However, Israeli intelligence sources say that Abbas's associates are
vehemently opposed to dismantling the Palestinian Authority.
Dismantling the PA would also mean disconnecting the Palestinians from
the European Commission Ad Hoc Liaison Committee on assistance to the
Palestinians, which funnels over $1 billion annually to the PA's bank
account, paying the salaries of over 160,000 Palestinian employees.
Israel National News (17-Sept) and Al Monitor

****
**** Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel
****

Nonetheless, some reports indicate that Abbas will deliver an
ultimatum to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday:
Freeze the settlement building and recognize the 1967 borders as a
basis for negotiation, or the PA will hand back to Israel the
responsibility for security in the whole of the West Bank.

On September 20, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas was
quoted as saying,

<QUOTE>"I’m already old. If in two or three months’ time I
see that there’s no hope, I won’t stay in the job."<END QUOTE>

It's possible that part of Wednesday's "bombshell" announcement
will be Abbas's own resignation.

Abbas has threatened to resign several times in the past. In 2011, it
seemed resignation was almost certain, because of the repeated failure
of the "peace process," but then his personal popularity began to
increase and he started "acting like a young man again," so he didn't
resign after all.

Because year after year has gone by with no progress in negotiations
with Israel, Abbas may feel that he has nothing left to lose if he
resigns and, at the same time, delivers an ultimatum to Israel.

Although Abbas has threatened to resign in the past, but has changed
his mind each time, it's possible that this time it may actually
happen, for two good reasons.

First, he was born in 1935 and is now 80 years old, and running the PA
cannot be easy at his age, especially since he isn't accomplishing
anything.

Second, his personal popularity has been plummeting, according to a
poll conducted by Khalil Shikaki of the Palestinian Center for Policy
and Survey Research. The main findings of the poll, conducted
between September 17-19 in Gaza and the West Bank, found:

• Two-thirds of the public demand the resignation of president
  Abbas.
• Two thirds of the public support Hamas-Israel indirect negotiations, although a majority believes that these negotiations will
  not succeed.
• For the first time, a majority now demands the dissolution of the
  Palestinian Authority.

The poll found that anger at the Palestinian Authority and the Arab
world has been growing due to various factors:

• The belief that the PA prevents demonstrations against the
  Israeli occupation waged in solidarity with Jerusalem and al Aqsa
  Mosque
• The belief that the PA is failing to protect Palestinians against
  settlers’ terrorism in the aftermath of the settlers’ burning of the
  Dawabsha family in the village of Duma.
• The PA manipulation of the rules to hold a quick session for the
  Palestine National Council including the submission of fake
  resignations from the PLO Executive Committee.
• Political and financial corruption in the PA, shown by the recent
  leak of documents showing cases of financial corruption within the
  PA.
• The overwhelming majority belief that Arabs no longer care about
  the fate of the Palestinians, that Palestine is no longer the primary
  cause of the Arabs, and that Arab countries have in fact entered an
  alliance with Israel against Iran despite the continued Israeli
  occupation.

So with Palestinian attitudes turning sharply against Abbas, the
Palestinian government, and the Arabs, a "bombshell" announcement that
combines an ultimatum with resignation is considered a possibility.
Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and Al Monitor

****
**** Abbas's resignation would trigger major Mideast changes
****

The Palestinian belief that the Arab world is turning against them
refers to what I've written about several times, that the 2014 Gaza
war brought about a major Mideast realignment
, splitting the Gulf nations apart. When the Gaza war
between Israel and Hamas began last summer, Egypt supported Israel and
the Palestinian Authority, and turned against Hamas, an offshoot of
the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran and Turkey supported Hamas. This
created a de facto realignment of the Mideast, with Israel plus
Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority in alliance
versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus Iran.

Since the Gaza war, there have been other factors: the rise of the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the war in
Yemen, the rise of Iran with the nuclear accords, and now Russia's
military deployment into Syria. Whereas the "Palestinian problem"
used to be the major focus of politicians around the world, today it
rarely even appears in the headlines, with everything else going on.
As a result, the Palestinians feel abandoned not only by the Arabs,
but also by the international community.

So now, into this chaotic context, comes the possibility that Abbas
may resign. As I wrote for the first time in 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Israel-Palestinian
"peace process" can never succeed because Arabs and Israelis will be
refighting the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed
the partitioning of Palestinian and the creation of the state of
Israel.

In 2003, I wrote that it's the survivors of the 1948 war that have
prevented a war that major from occurring again. In 2003, Yassir
Arafat and Ariel Sharon, both survivors of the 1948 war, were the
respective leaders of the Palestinians and Israelis. Today, both of
them are gone, and in fact, almost every other survivor is also gone,
with Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas being the sole
major leader with personal memories of the horrors of the 1948 war.

The resignation of Abbas would bring on a major leadership crisis
among the Palestinians. Some polls indicate that his most likely
replacement would be Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, a Gen-Xer
born in 1963. This generational shift in leadership would bring major
changes to the Palestinian territories, and a great deal more conflict
with Israel. Al Monitor (22-Sept) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Hamas,
Gaza, West Bank, Oslo peace accords, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
European Commission Ad Hoc Liaison Committee,
Khalil Shikaki, Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research,
Ismail Haniyeh

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Maybe Abbas will indicate a desire to merge with Jordan and Egypt*. Turning back the clock but this time around Jordan, Israel and Egypt are a de facto bloc, which, faced with all of the existential threats the bloc has on all sides, would pressure the bloc to become a de facto adjunct of NATO.

* I realize Abbas no longer formally speaks for Gaza however he still has some moral authority to suggest that Gaza merge with Egypt.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> The Hajj has really gotten out of hand. Way too many people trying
> to do too much in too short a time. Not sure how to solve it. The
> constraints are the end of Ramadan, Islamic New Year and lunar
> cycle counting. Ultimately, however, it is humans doing an
> interpretation combined with force of custom. Probably the only
> solution would be to say, the Hajj period will be lengthened by
> one lunar cycle, adding ~ 4 weeks. That would allow staggering of
> activities and lessen the crush of so many people through the
> choke points.

Your suggestion reminds me of a similar issue. When I was in college,
I read an essay by someone who said that everything in the Bible was
the literal inspired word of God.

He was commenting on a proposal that January 1 should always occur on
a Monday. To make it work, there would be one or two days at the
end of the year Dec 31 and maybe Dec 30, that would be special days
that wouldn't occur on any day of the week.

The essay strongly objected to this proposal because it violated the
Word of God in the Bible. The Bible says that the sabbath occurs
exactly every seven days, and this proposal would upset that schedule,
and force religious people to celebrate the sabbath on whatever day of
the week the seventh day fell on.

So imagine my surprise in 2011, when the nation of Samoa moved from
one side of the international date line to the other. To compensate,
the date of Friday, December 30, 2011, no longer existed. Instead,
you went to bed on Thursday, Dec 29 and woke up on Saturday, Dec 31.
The reason for the change was that Samoa wanted to align its calendar
with the most of the rest of Asia, who are their main trading
partners.

Since this violated the 7-day rule, I expected to hear an outcry from
somewhere, and wrote that on my web site. However, I've never read
any objection to it whatsoever.

So if Samoa can violate the Biblical 7-day rule, then I suppose
there's no problem with Saudi Arabia violating the Hajj rule.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> Maybe Abbas will indicate a desire to merge with Jordan and
> Egypt*. Turning back the clock but this time around Jordan, Israel
> and Egypt are a de facto bloc, which, faced with all of the
> existential threats the bloc has on all sides, would pressure the
> bloc to become a de facto adjunct of NATO. * I realize Abbas no
> longer formally speaks for Gaza however he still has some moral
> authority to suggest that Gaza merge with Egypt.

No way, José. Al-Sisi hates Hamas, and would like to exterminate
them, not merge with them.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

No way, José. Al-Sisi hates Hamas, and would like to exterminate
them, not merge with them.

I had a hostile take over in mind, in the case of Gaza.

*** 29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taliban scores major strategic victory in Afghanistan, capturing Kunduz
• The Afghan Taliban return to Kunduz after fourteen years
• Repercussions for Central Asia

****
**** Taliban scores major strategic victory in Afghanistan, capturing Kunduz
****


Kunduz citizens greeting Taliban on Monday, from the twitter feed of Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid (https://twitter.com/zabihullam)

The Afghan Taliban achieved a major propaganda boost and significant
strategic victory on Monday by capturing the city of Kunduz in
northern Afghanistan, near the border with Tajikistan. Kunduz has a
population of about 300,000, and is a major transportation hub for the
north of the country, providing a pathway for trade throughout Central
Asia.

The Taliban have attacked Kunduz in the past but were driven back. On
Monday, hundreds of Taliban fighters launched an offensive from three
sides, catching Afghan forces by surprise. In the past, when there
was a large contingent of US-led coalition forces, it would have been
possible to stop the assault by means of air strikes on the pickup
trucks carrying the Taliban fighters into the city, but attempts to
create an Afghan air force have not been successful.

The Taliban have looted government buildings with intelligence
information, UN offices, weapons stores, and banks with millions of
dollars. In addition, the Taliban have freed 700 prisoners from the
city's jails, including many very dangerous Taliban commanders and
leaders. The capture of Kunduz will lead to further Taliban advances,
including major operations next summer.

The Afghan military is promising to recapture the city, but any
attempt to do so will result in large numbers of civilian deaths,
because the Taliban are digging in to heavily populated areas.

Kunduz’s position as a potential gateway to and from central Asia
makes it an attractive target for insurgents, and the government has
claimed that foreign militants linked to ISIS were involved in the
recent unrest, as well as militants from the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU). Images showing Taliban fighters driving in vehicles
allegedly captured from the security forces have since been posted on
social media, such as the one at the beginning of this article.
BBC and
Reuters and Long War Journal

****
**** The Afghan Taliban return to Kunduz after fourteen years
****

Afghanistan was embroiled in an extremely bloody civil war between
1991-96, after which the Taliban took control of the government. Nato
forces pushed the Taliban out of Kunduz during the 2001 invasion of
Afghanistan.

Kunduz was the last city in the north to be held by the Taliban
regime. In the aftermath, under the Nato mission, German soldiers
arrived in Kunduz in October 2003 expecting to see little combat, but
security had begun to deteriorate even before the Germans withdrew in
late 2013.

By 2015, the Taliban were taking control of much of the area along the
northern border with Tajikistan. In April of this year, the Taliban
came close to capturing Kunduz. When it appeared in April that Kunduz
was on the brink of falling, the government panicked and sent
reinforcements. The city was saved from collapse, but residents
described it as a hollow victory because of continuing widespread
violence in the region. Deutsche Welle and The National (UAE - 20-June-2015)

****
**** Repercussions for Central Asia
****

As we reported recently ( "16-Sep-15 World View -- Russia's economic slowdown means financial disaster for Central Asia"
), Russia's Vladimir Putin
has been tightening his grip on Tajikistan by deploying troops to the
border with Afghanistan to defend against the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Taliban, and other militant groups.

Putin was quoted as saying,

<QUOTE>"Terrorists publicly claim that they set their sights
on attacking Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem. They are planning to
expand their activities to Europe, Russia, Central and Southeast
Asia. ...

The real threat of terrorist and extremist groups infiltrating the
countries neighboring Afghanistan is rising. ...

Here in Tajikistan you are confronted with problems, with
encroachments and attempts to rock the situation, and I would like
to say that you can always count on our assistance and
support."<END QUOTE>

Putin is using a similar strategy with other Central Asian countries
as well.

The Taliban seizure of Kunduz provides a major boost to Putin's
argument that these Central Asian countries should allow Russian
troops to deploy on their soil. He could also point out that analysts
believe that the militias capturing Kunduz also included fighters from
the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). And this comes just days
after another Taliban-linked group, the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU),
claimed that it had taken control of large areas of Afghanistan's
northern border with Tajikistan.

The international perception of the differences between Vladimir Putin
and Barack Obama are becoming more pronounced. Putin is doubling down
to support his client in Syria, and is deploying troops on the
Afghanistan border, while Obama is doing nothing for his client in
Afghanistan, and is weak and dithering in Syria and Iraq.

Obama had originally promised to end America's military involvement
in Afghanistan by the end of 2014. Most of America's troops
were withdrawn, but Obama extended the deadline to the end
of 2016, just before he leaves office, and with a much smaller
force of 9,800 troops.

The capture of Kunduz is a highly significant milestone in the
increasing success of the Taliban in recapturing control of
Afghanistan. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is lobbying to slow the
American troop withdrawal by arguing that "Afghanistan is shouldering
the burden of fighting foreign extremism” and that ISIS is one of
several extremist groups threatening the country’s stability.

After a disastrous outcome to his policies in Iraq and Syria, Obama is
now facing another potentially disastrous output in Afghanistan. He
will face a number of difficult decisions in the next few months.
Long War Journal (25-Sept) and Foreign Policy and Deutsche Welle


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kunduz, Taliban,
Tajikistan, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, Islamic Jihad Union, IJU,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iraq, Syria, Ashraf Ghani

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taliban scores major strategic victory in Afghanistan, capturing Kunduz
• The Afghan Taliban return to Kunduz after fourteen years
• Repercussions for Central Asia

****
**** Taliban scores major strategic victory in Afghanistan, capturing Kunduz
****


Kunduz citizens greeting Taliban on Monday, from the twitter feed of Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid (https://twitter.com/zabihullam)

The Afghan Taliban achieved a major propaganda boost and significant
strategic victory on Monday by capturing the city of Kunduz in
northern Afghanistan, near the border with Tajikistan. Kunduz has a
population of about 300,000, and is a major transportation hub for the
north of the country, providing a pathway for trade throughout Central
Asia.

The Taliban have attacked Kunduz in the past but were driven back. On
Monday, hundreds of Taliban fighters launched an offensive from three
sides, catching Afghan forces by surprise. In the past, when there
was a large contingent of US-led coalition forces, it would have been
possible to stop the assault by means of air strikes on the pickup
trucks carrying the Taliban fighters into the city, but attempts to
create an Afghan air force have not been successful.

The Taliban have looted government buildings with intelligence
information, UN offices, weapons stores, and banks with millions of
dollars. In addition, the Taliban have freed 700 prisoners from the
city's jails, including many very dangerous Taliban commanders and
leaders. The capture of Kunduz will lead to further Taliban advances,
including major operations next summer.

The Afghan military is promising to recapture the city, but any
attempt to do so will result in large numbers of civilian deaths,
because the Taliban are digging in to heavily populated areas.

Kunduz’s position as a potential gateway to and from central Asia
makes it an attractive target for insurgents, and the government has
claimed that foreign militants linked to ISIS were involved in the
recent unrest, as well as militants from the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU). Images showing Taliban fighters driving in vehicles
allegedly captured from the security forces have since been posted on
social media, such as the one at the beginning of this article.
BBC and
Reuters and Long War Journal

****
**** The Afghan Taliban return to Kunduz after fourteen years
****

Afghanistan was embroiled in an extremely bloody civil war between
1991-96, after which the Taliban took control of the government. Nato
forces pushed the Taliban out of Kunduz during the 2001 invasion of
Afghanistan.

Kunduz was the last city in the north to be held by the Taliban
regime. In the aftermath, under the Nato mission, German soldiers
arrived in Kunduz in October 2003 expecting to see little combat, but
security had begun to deteriorate even before the Germans withdrew in
late 2013.

By 2015, the Taliban were taking control of much of the area along the
northern border with Tajikistan. In April of this year, the Taliban
came close to capturing Kunduz. When it appeared in April that Kunduz
was on the brink of falling, the government panicked and sent
reinforcements. The city was saved from collapse, but residents
described it as a hollow victory because of continuing widespread
violence in the region. Deutsche Welle and The National (UAE - 20-June-2015)

****
**** Repercussions for Central Asia
****

As we reported recently ( "16-Sep-15 World View -- Russia's economic slowdown means financial disaster for Central Asia"
), Russia's Vladimir Putin
has been tightening his grip on Tajikistan by deploying troops to the
border with Afghanistan to defend against the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Taliban, and other militant groups.

Putin was quoted as saying,

<QUOTE>"Terrorists publicly claim that they set their sights
on attacking Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem. They are planning to
expand their activities to Europe, Russia, Central and Southeast
Asia. ...

The real threat of terrorist and extremist groups infiltrating the
countries neighboring Afghanistan is rising. ...

Here in Tajikistan you are confronted with problems, with
encroachments and attempts to rock the situation, and I would like
to say that you can always count on our assistance and
support."<END QUOTE>

Putin is using a similar strategy with other Central Asian countries
as well.

The Taliban seizure of Kunduz provides a major boost to Putin's
argument that these Central Asian countries should allow Russian
troops to deploy on their soil. He could also point out that analysts
believe that the militias capturing Kunduz also included fighters from
the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). And this comes just days
after another Taliban-linked group, the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU),
claimed that it had taken control of large areas of Afghanistan's
northern border with Tajikistan.

The international perception of the differences between Vladimir Putin
and Barack Obama are becoming more pronounced. Putin is doubling down
to support his client in Syria, and is deploying troops on the
Afghanistan border, while Obama is doing nothing for his client in
Afghanistan, and is weak and dithering in Syria and Iraq.

Obama had originally promised to end America's military involvement
in Afghanistan by the end of 2014. Most of America's troops
were withdrawn, but Obama extended the deadline to the end
of 2016, just before he leaves office, and with a much smaller
force of 9,800 troops.

The capture of Kunduz is a highly significant milestone in the
increasing success of the Taliban in recapturing control of
Afghanistan. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is lobbying to slow the
American troop withdrawal by arguing that "Afghanistan is shouldering
the burden of fighting foreign extremism” and that ISIS is one of
several extremist groups threatening the country’s stability.

After a disastrous outcome to his policies in Iraq and Syria, Obama is
now facing another potentially disastrous output in Afghanistan. He
will face a number of difficult decisions in the next few months.
Long War Journal (25-Sept) and Foreign Policy and Deutsche Welle


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kunduz, Taliban,
Tajikistan, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, Islamic Jihad Union, IJU,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iraq, Syria, Ashraf Ghani

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Moscow will retake all of Central Asia. Mark my words. This will include a renewed incursion to Afghanistan. Truth be told, though, Moscow never completely left. Dostum and some of the other "warlords" are "ex"-Red Army officers / generals. Some of them also have dual or multiple standing - standard military / GRU / Spetsnaz / SVR. In any case, this is bad.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> Moscow will retake all of Central Asia. Mark my words. This will
> include a renewed incursion to Afghanistan. Truth be told, though,
> Moscow never completely left. Dostum and some of the other
> "warlords" are "ex"-Red Army officers / generals. Some of them
> also have dual or multiple standing - standard military / GRU /
> Spetsnaz / SVR. In any case, this is bad.

I certainly agree that Russia is trying to retake all of Central Asia
-- in fact, Putin wants to reconstruct the entire Soviet Union.

However, in Central Asia, Russia is going to get competition from
China. It's always a possibility that the next major war will begin
in Central Asia.

Still question the inevitability of the Sino-Russian conflict during this turning.

This bit about Kunduz is actually really interesting for me. When I was in Afghanistan (Jan-Jun 2009) almost every time I left the wire it was to drive from Mazar-e-Sharif to Kunduz for something or other. Since when I was there it was fairly quiet (and when the local Pashtun militants did do something it was almost invariably directed at the Germans and/or the local government), it's weird to see a place I spent that much time in in the headlines.

On a small note, which you partially covered earlier (but partially not), there was almost never a large American military presence there. The Germans had a large base outside of town, with a smaller DEA one nearby (the DEA compound had a really nice chow hall). The German base had a small contingent of National Guard soldiers (Illinois, when I was there) on an annex of it. That was about it.

The nearest base that I was aware of after that was the Hungarian PRT in Pol-e-Khomri, and that was a long drive to the south. It was not really a very active area, just a weird little Pashtun pocket in a sea of Dari-speaking Tajiks and other members of the Northern Alliance.